standard_description: Approximate the probability of a chance event by collecting data on the chance process that produces it and observing its long-run relative frequency, and predict the approximate relative frequency given the probability. For example, when rolling a number cube 600 times, predict that a 3 or 6 would be rolled roughly 200 times, but probably not exactly 200 times.
problem_activity: Optional activity
The purpose of this activity is for students to encounter a situation where the quantity given is not the whole amount, but rather is the amount after a decrease. In this case, they are given the amount after a 10% decrease. They should make the connection from previous lessons that the amount given is 90% of the whole.
Launch
Give students 3–5 minutes of quiet work time followed with whole-class discussion.
If time is limited pick the second problem to talk about during the discussion.
Representation: Internalize Comprehension.
Represent the same information through different modalities by using double number line diagrams. If students are unsure where to begin, suggest that they draw a double number line diagram to help organize the information provided.
Supports accessibility for: Conceptual processing; Visual-spatial processing
Student Facing
Green sea turtles live most of their lives in the ocean, but come ashore to lay their eggs. Some beaches where turtles often come ashore have been made into protected sanctuaries so the eggs will not be disturbed.
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One sanctuary had 180 green sea turtles come ashore to lay eggs last year. This year, the number of turtles increased by 10%. How many turtles came ashore to lay eggs in the sanctuary this year?
At another sanctuary, the number of nesting turtles decreased by 10%. This year there were 234 nesting turtles. How many nesting turtles were at this sanctuary last year?
Student Response
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Anticipated Misconceptions
For the percent decrease problem, students may calculate 10% of 234, getting a change of 23.4 turtles and an original number of 257.4 turtles. Remind them that the percent decrease describes the change as a percentage of the original value, not as a percentage of the new value. If needed, prompt students to represent the situation using a double number line, placing 234 to the left by 10% of the quantity they want to find, which should be associated with 100%.
Activity Synthesis
Ask students:
How are the two problems the same? How are they different?
What information is given in the first problem that is not given in the second? Second and not the first?
In which problem were you given the quantity that represented 100%?
Connect the previous discussion about the original value being 100% by asking:
For the percent increase question, what percentage value were you given? (students might answer 10% here but that is not actually the case)
How did you use that to figure out the original number of green sea turtles?
Speaking, Listening: MLR8 Discussion Supports.
Use this routine to support whole-class discussion. Ask 1–2 students to share how they used the given percentage value to figure out the original number of green sea turtles. Ask students to use mathematical language to restate and/or revoice one of the shared explanations. Consider providing students time to first share with a partner, before selecting one or two students to share with the class. This will support student understanding of situations where the quantity given is not the whole amount.
Design Principle(s): Support sense-making; Maximize meta-awareness


aligns: no