standard_description: Define a random variable for a quantity of interest by assigning a numerical value to each event in a sample space; graph the corresponding probability distribution using the same graphical displays as for data distributions.
problem_activity: Warm-up
The purpose of an Estimation warm-up is to practice the skill of estimating a reasonable answer based on experience and known information, and also help students develop a deeper understanding of the meaning of standard units of measure. It gives students a low-stakes opportunity to share a mathematical claim and the thinking behind it (MP3). Asking yourself, “Does this make sense?” is a component of making sense of problems (MP1), and making an estimate or a range of reasonable answers with incomplete information is part of modeling with mathematics (MP4).
Launch
Display the image for all to see. Ask students to silently think of a number they are sure is too low, a number they are sure is too high, and a number that is about right, and write these down. Then, write a short explanation for the reasoning behind their estimate.
Student Facing
[IMG]
The book in the center is 276 pages long. What is the mean number of pages of the 3 books?
Record an estimate that is:
| too low | about right | too high |
|---------|-------------|----------|
|         |             |          |
Explain your reasoning.
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
Select a few students to share their estimate and their reasoning. If a student is reluctant to commit to an estimate, ask for a range of values. Display these for all to see in an ordered list or on a number line. Add the least and greatest estimate to the display by asking, “Is anyone’s estimate less than
\(\underline{\hspace{.5in}}\)
? Is anyone’s estimate greater than
\(\underline{\hspace{.5in}}\)
?” If time allows, ask students, “Based on this discussion, does anyone want to revise their estimate?”
Then, reveal the actual value and add it to the display. The books are 830, 276, and 32 pages long, so the average number of pages in the books is about 379 pages. Ask students how accurate their estimates were, as a class.
“Is the actual value inside the range of values?”
“Is 379 near the middle of the estimates?”
“How variable are the estimates?”
“What are the sources of errors?”
Consider developing a method to record a snapshot of the estimates and actual value so students can track their progress as estimators over time.


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