standard_description: Understand that the probability of a chance event is a number between 0 and 1 that expresses the likelihood of the event occurring. Larger numbers indicate greater likelihood. A probability near 0 indicates an unlikely event, a probability around 1/2 indicates an event that is neither unlikely nor likely, and a probability near 1 indicates a likely event.
problem_activity: Optional activity
This activity is a follow-up to the context used in the activities Three Different TV Shows and Who's Watching What?, but also follows the ideas of sample means from this lesson.
In this activity, students continue to look at how variability in the sample means can be used to think about the accuracy of an estimate of a population mean. If the means from samples tend to be very spread out, then there is reason to believe that the mean from a single sample may not be especially close to the mean for the population. If the means from samples tend to be tightly grouped, then there is reason to believe that the mean from a single sample is a good estimate of the mean for the population (MP7).
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 2.
Tell students that, although the dot plots seem to have a similar shape, attention should be given to the scale of the horizontal axis.
Allow students 3–5 minutes of quiet work time followed by partner and whole-class discussions.
Action and Expression: Internalize Executive Functions.
Chunk this task into more manageable parts. After students have solved the first 2-3 population mean estimate problems, check-in with either select groups of students or the whole class. Invite students to share the strategies they have used so far as well as any questions they have before continuing.
Supports accessibility for: Organization; Attention
Student Facing
The other day you worked with 2 different samples of viewers from each of 3 different television shows. Each sample included 10 viewers. Here are the mean ages for 100 different samples of viewers from each show.
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For each show, use the dot plot to estimate the
population
mean.
Trivia the Game Show
Science Experiments YOU Can Do
Learning to Read
For each show, are most of the sample means within 1 year of your estimated population mean?
Suppose you take a new random sample of 10 viewers for each of the 3 shows. Which show do you expect to have the new sample mean closest to the population mean? Explain or show your reasoning.
Student Response
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Student Facing
Are you ready for more?
Market research shows that advertisements for retirement plans appeal to people between the ages of 40 and 55. Younger people are usually not interested and older people often already have a plan. Is it a good idea to advertise retirement plans during any of these three shows? Explain your reasoning.
Student Response
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Anticipated Misconceptions
Students may get confused about what the dot plots represent. Refer to the class dot plot of sample means from the reaction time activity to help them understand that a single dot on the dot plot represents a mean from a single sample. Each dot plot shows means from several different samples.
Activity Synthesis
The purpose of the discussion is to think about what the information in the given dot plots tells us about the accuracy of an estimate of a population mean based on the sample mean from a single sample.
Consider asking these questions for discussion:
“In the first dot plot for ‘Trivia the Game Show,’ what does the dot at 68 represent?” (There is a sample of 10 viewers that has a mean age of 68 years.)
“Based on the dot plot shown for ‘Learning to Read,’ do you think any 7 year olds were included in the data?” (Yes. Since one of the sample means is 6.8, there are probably a few 7 year olds and some 6 year olds in that sample.)
“Why is this kind of dot plot useful?” (It shows how variable the means from samples can be, so it gives a good idea of how accurate a sample mean might be as an estimate of a population mean.)
“Why might it be difficult to obtain a dot plot like this?” (Each dot represents a sample of 10. It might be hard to get 100 different samples of size 10.)
Representing, Speaking: MLR2 Collect and Display.
Create a visual display with the heading “Dot Plots of Sample Means.” As students respond to the discussion questions, write down the words and phrases students use on the visual display. Listen for and amplify words and phrases such as “each dot represents...,” “variability of the sample means,” and “population mean.” As students review the language collected in the visual display, encourage students to clarify the meaning of a word or phrase. For example, a phrase such as “each dot represents a sample” can be clarified by restating it as “each dot represents a sample mean.” This will help students make sense of dot plots of sample means as they draw conclusions about populations.
Design Principle(s): Support sense-making: Maximize meta-awareness


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