standard_description: Develop a probability model and use it to find probabilities of events. Compare probabilities from a model to observed frequencies; if the agreement is not good, explain possible sources of the discrepancy.
problem_activity: Problem 1
You would like to know whether the number of minutes that a train is delayed correlates to the number of violent acts that occur on the platform or in the train.
Which would result in the most reliable data?
Delay trains, on purpose, by 5 minutes, 10 minutes, and 20 minutes and track the number of violent acts reported to the MBTA police. Compare this information to when the trains are not delayed.
Use data about delayed trains and look at the report data for the MBTA police—connecting the times of each.
Ask a sample of ridership about number of violent acts witnessed and ask respondents to identify the station and the approximate time these acts took place.
Which of these is an observational study, which is a survey, and which is an experiment? How do you know?
Problem 2
To determine if higher speed limits cause more traffic fatalities, researchers compared the number of traffic deaths on randomly selected stretches of highway within 65 mph speed limits to the number of traffic deaths on an equal number of randomly selected stretches of highway with 75 mph speed limits.
Problem 3
For each part below, determine 1) if the type of study described is a survey, observational study, or experimental study, and 2) if the study is good or bad, and why.
Why are students missing so much school in the district? A district administrator selects 300 student names at random from the enrollment list and sends a letter to each student’s home. The letter includes a page to be returned to their school signed by a parent or guardian. The page asks, “How many days has your student missed school this year?” and “What are the reasons for missing school on those days?”
Why are students missing so much school in the district? A district administrator chooses one of the elementary schools in the district and asks the principal to provide information about the number of absences and the excuse notes provided to the school.
Do voters in the district favor a sales tax increase of 1% to fund the parks and recreation department? A politician sends a letter to 300 voters in the district asking, “Would you pay extra money on your essential groceries to hire more government workers to plant flowers around the town?”
Do voters in the district favor a sales tax increase of 1% to fund the parks and recreation department? A politician sends a letter to 300 voters selected at random in the district asking, “Would you be in favor of a 1% increase in sales tax to fund the parks and recreation department in town?”


aligns: no