standard_description: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be.
problem_activity: Warm-up
The purpose of this warm-up is to elicit the idea that an increase in sample size is associated with a decrease in margin of error, which will be useful when students investigate the relationship between margin of error and sample size in a later activity. While students may notice and wonder many things about these images, the relationship between sample size and margin of error is the important discussion point. This prompt gives students opportunities to see and make use of structure (MP7). The specific structure they might notice is that the margin of error decreases as the sample size increases.
Launch
Tell students that their job is to think of at least one thing they notice and at least one thing they wonder. Display the table for all to see. Give students 1 minute of quiet think time, and then 1 minute to discuss the things they notice with their partner, followed by a whole-class discussion.
Student Facing
Five students wanted to see how many children’s movies have female lead characters. They each took a sample of children’s movies, found the proportion of movies that had female lead characters, then used their results to simulate 100 additional samples. The table shows some of the findings based on the original sample and the simulations.
What do you notice? What do you wonder?
| student | number of movies used in the original random sample | estimated proportion | margin of error |
|---------|-----------------------------------------------------|----------------------|-----------------|
|    A    |                                                     |                      |                 |
|    B    |                                                     |                      |                 |
|    C    |                                                     |                      |                 |
|    D    |                                                     |                      |                 |
|    E    |                                                     |                      |                 |
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
The purpose of the discussion is to notice that the margin of error tends to decrease when a greater number of things are used in the sample. Ask students to share the things they noticed and wondered. Record and display their responses for all to see. If possible, record the relevant reasoning on or near the table. After all responses have been recorded without commentary or editing, ask students, “Is there anything on this list that you are wondering about?” Encourage students to respectfully disagree, ask for clarification or point out contradicting information. If the relationship between the margin of error and sample size does not come up during the conversation, ask students to discuss this idea.


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