standard_description: Use data from a random sample to draw inferences about a population with an unknown characteristic of interest. Generate multiple samples (or simulated samples) of the same size to gauge the variation in estimates or predictions. For example, estimate the mean word length in a book by randomly sampling words from the book; predict the winner of a school election based on randomly sampled survey data. Gauge how far off the estimate or prediction might be.
problem_activity: Task
Amy and Greg look for a method to estimate the number of leaves on a $35$ foot tree in their yard. Greg notices that the tree blocks almost all of the sunlight beneath its leaves so he thinks of the following way to estimate how many leaves are on the tree:
We can first measure the area of the ground covered by the tree.
Then we measure the area of an average leaf.
We will need to estimate how much of its area an average leaf shades and how many leaves lie over an average point under the tree.
With all of this information we should be able to get a good estimate for the number of leaves on the tree.
Amy and Greg find that the tree covers a region which is roughly a circle $30$ feet in diameter. What is the approximate area covered by the tree?
How can Amy and Greg effectively measure an irregular shape such as a tree leaf?
How can Amy and Greg effectively decide what number to multiply by to account for multiple leaves lying over the same area and leaves shading less than their full surface area?
Suppose $a$ is the approximate area underneath the tree, $b$ the average leaf area, $c$ the proportion of its area an average leaf shades, and $d$ the average number of leaves found over a spot underneath the tree. In terms of the numbers $a$, $b$, $c$, and $d$ what formula will Amy and Greg find for the number of leaves on the tree?


aligns: no