standard_description: Understand the conditional probability of A given B as P(A and B)/P(B), and interpret independence of A and B as saying that the conditional probability of A given B is the same as the probability of A, and the conditional probability of B given A is the same as the probability of B.
problem_activity: Warm-up
The mathematical purpose of this lesson is for students to motivate a conceptual understanding of the
addition rule
. Monitor for students discussing counting people twice.
Launch
Arrange students in groups of 2. Give students quiet work time and then time to share their work with a partner.
Student Facing
The table displays information about people at a neighborhood park.
{"table": [{"_attributes": {"border": "1"}, "thead": [{"tr": [{"th": [{"_attributes": {"scope": "row"}}, {"_attributes": {"scope": "col"}, "_value": "wearing sneakers"}, {"_attributes": {"scope": "col"}, "_value": "not wearing sneakers"}, {"_attributes": {"scope": "col"}, "_value": "total"}]}]}], "tbody": [{"tr": [{"th": [{"_attributes": {"scope": "row"}, "_value": "wearing a hat"}], "td": [{"_value": "8"}, {"_value": "2"}, {"_value": "10"}]}, {"th": [{"_attributes": {"scope": "row"}, "_value": "not wearing a hat"}], "td": [{"_value": "3"}, {"_value": "12"}, {"_value": "15"}]}, {"th": [{"_attributes": {"scope": "row"}, "_value": "total"}], "td": [{"_value": "11"}, {"_value": "14"}, {"_value": "25"}]}]}]}]}
Andre says the number of people wearing sneakers or wearing a hat is 21, because there are a total of 10 people wearing a hat and a total of 11 people wearing sneakers. Is Andre correct? Explain your reasoning.
What is the probability that a person selected at random from those in the park is wearing sneakers or wearing a hat?
Student Response
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Activity Synthesis
The goal of this discussion is to use the context as a model to introduce a conceptual understanding of the addition rule. Ask previously identified students to explain why Andre counted some people twice when he stated that the number of people wearing sneakers or wearing a hat is 21.
Here are some questions for discussion.
“Why did Andre need to subtract 8 from 21 to get the correct answer?” (It needs to be subtracted because the 8 people that were wearing sneakers and wearing a hat were counted twice. We counted them twice when adding the column total for wearing sneakers and the row total for wearing a hat.)
“How could the number of people wearing sneakers or wearing a hat be represented using a Venn diagram?” (A Venn diagram could be made using two overlapping circles, one for wearing sneakers and one for wearing a hat. There would be 8 people in the middle where the two circles overlap. There would be an additional 3 people in the wearing sneakers circle representing those wearing sneakers but not a hat. There would also be an additional 2 people in the circle representing those wearing a hat but not sneakers.)
“What is the probability that a person selected at random is not wearing sneakers and not wearing a hat?” (
\(\frac{12}{25}\)
)


aligns: no