standard_description: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.
problem_activity: Narrative
The purpose of this activity is for students to analyze a collection of connecting cubes that is arranged in towers of 10. Students analyze another student’s thinking about a representation of 48 cubes in towers of 10. When students explain that they disagree with Noah because a ten must include 10 ones, they show their understanding of a ten and the foundations of the base-ten system (MP3, MP7).
MLR8 Discussion Supports.
Synthesis: At the appropriate time, give students 2–3 minutes to make sure that everyone in their group can explain why they agree or disagree with Noah. Invite groups to rehearse what they will say when they share with the whole class.
Advances: Speaking, Conversing, Representing
Required Materials
Materials to Gather
Connecting cubes in towers of 10 and singles
Launch
Groups of 2
Give students access to connecting cubes in towers of 10 and singles.
“Noah counted a collection of connecting cubes. He says there are 50 cubes. Do you agree or disagree? Explain how you know. You will have a chance to think about it on your own and talk to your partner about Noah’s thinking before you write your response.”
Activity
1 minute: quiet think time
“Share your thinking with your partner.”
2 minutes: partner discussion
“Explain why you agree or disagree with Noah. Write the word ‘agree’ or ‘disagree’ in the first blank. Then write why you agree or disagree.”
3 minutes: independent work time
Student Facing
Noah organized his collection of connecting cubes.
[IMG]
He counts and says there are 50 cubes.
Do you agree or disagree?
Explain how you know:
I ____________________ with Noah because
Student Response
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Advancing Student Thinking
If students attempt to check Noah's count by counting all the cubes by one, consider asking:
“How are you checking to see if there are 50 cubes?”
“How could you use what you know about groups of ten to check Noah’s thinking?”
Activity Synthesis
Invite students to share whether they agree or disagree, and their reasons.
If needed, ask “How do you know there are not 50 cubes?” (50 is 5 tens. There are only 4 tens here. The last tower isn’t 10. There are 4 tens and 8 ones.)


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