standard_description: Recognize and explain the concepts of conditional probability and independence in everyday language and everyday situations. For example, compare the chance of having lung cancer if you are a smoker with the chance of being a smoker if you have lung cancer.
problem_activity: Task
A seven-year-old boy has a favorite treat, Super Fruity Fruit Snax.
These "Fruit Snax" come in pouches of 10 snack pieces per pouch, and the pouches are generally sold by the box, with each box containing 4 pouches.
The snack pieces come in 5 different fruit flavors, and usually each pouch contains at least one piece from each of the 5 flavors. The website of the company that manufactures the product says that equal numbers of each of the 5 fruit flavors are produced and that pouches are filled in such a way that each piece added to a pouch is equally likely to be any one of the five flavors.
Of all the 5 fruit flavors, the seven-year-old boy likes mango the best. One day, he was very disappointed when he opened a pouch and there were no (zero) mango flavored pieces in the pouch. His mother (a statistician) assured him that this was no big deal and just happens by chance sometimes.
If the information on the company's website is correct,
What proportion of the population of snack pieces is mango flavored?
On average, how many mango flavored pieces should the boy expect in a pouch of 10 snack pieces?
What is the chance that a pouch of 10 would have no mango flavored pieces? Was the mother's statement reasonable? Explain. (Hint: if none of the 10 independently selected pieces are mango, then all 10 pieces are "not mango.")
The family then finds out that there were in fact no mango flavored pieces in any of the 4 pouches in the box they purchased. Again, if the information on the company's website is correct,
What is the chance that an entire box of 4 pouches would have no mango flavored pieces? (Hint: How is this related to your answer to question (iii) in part (a)?)
Based on your answer and based on the fact that this event of an entire box with "no mangoes" happened to this family, would you be concerned about the company's claims, or would you say that such an event is not surprising given the company's claims? Explain.


aligns: yes