Climate Change and Indigenous Arabica Coffee Figure 7. Locality analysis predictions superimposed on main protected areas in the study region. Point size and colour represent the total predicted score for each locality across all scenarios and time intervals (until 2080). Large dots (high score) represent ‘core localities’, i.e. those that predicted to withstand climate change until at least 2080. See internal legend for further details. Protected area data from [70]. Dedicated coffee reserves: Yayu = Yayu Coffee Forest UNESCO MAN Biosphere Reserve (http://www.unesco.org/mabdb/br/brdir/directory/biores. asp?code = ETH+02&mode = all. Accessed 2012 May 10), included within the Yayu National Forest Priority Area (NFPA) (http://www.ecff.org.et/ component/content/article/10-yayu/6-yayu-coffee-forest-biosphere-reserve.html. Accessed 2012 May 10); Kafa = Kafa Coffee Biosphere Reserve UNESCO Biosphere Reserve (http://www.kafa-biosphere.com/. Accessed 2012 May 10). Note. Controlled Hunting Areas not shown. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981.g007 present-day (Figure 2B) and unsuitable in the short- to medium- term (Figure 7), are suggested as priorities for ex situ conservation. Closely associated with the need to identify populations for conservation will be the requirement to assess the genetic variation of indigenous Arabica, and particularly in relation to their bioclimatic profiles (either modelled or directly measured), and physiological response to climate change. For example, genetic assessment and monitoring of populations either side of the Great Rift Valley could be rewarding, as they are already known to possess different bioclimatic tolerances and other potentially valuable characteristics [30,31]. These two main areas of distribution receive the bulk of their rainfall from different directions and at different times of the year [57]. In undertaking such work it might be possible to identify local variants that have improved thermal and/or drought tolerance, which can be used in the development of cultivated Arabica stock. Next steps for present and future distribution modelling of indigenous Arabica coffee Despite the limitations of assessing the impacts of climate change using the single-species approach via bioclimatic modelling [32,33], and in the absence of more detailed ecological and physiological data [34,35], this study has firmly established a baseline for assessing the consequences of climate change for indigenous Arabica coffee. It is important to bear in mind that we have used here and single climate model (HadCM3), with one niche modelling method (MaxEnt). Whilst the quantitative results PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 11 November 2012 | Volume 7 | Issue 11 | e47981