Climate Change and Indigenous Arabica Coffee Figure 1. Predicted and actual distribution of indigenous Arabica. Green dots show recorded data-points. Coloured areas (yellow to red) show predicted distribution based on MaxEnt modelling (see internal legend). A context map is given in the top left hand corner. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981.g001 to assess the future predicted distribution in terms of bioclimatic suitability (see locality analysis and area analysis, below), with the following assumptions and limitations. (1) Individual plants will not move to different localities that are less suitable than the present day. (2) The area for future modelling was only performed within the core region (i.e. southern Ethiopia and SE South Sudan), in order to reduce the amount of processing and also to limit model spread where there is no control (i.e. no locality data and zero or minimal chance of occurrence). We ran future models including and excluding Mt Marsabit, but either way it made little difference to the modelling. Mt. Marsabit is a considerable distance (c. 500 km) from the main area of Arabica distribution, and is separated from it by a large bioclimatically unsuitable region (low altitude, seasonally dry vegetation). Indigenous Arabica coffee is almost entirely exclusive to the Moist Evergreen Afromontane Forest, and Transitional Rain Forest of Ethiopia [56] and South Sudan [37]. In addition to this, the predictions for occurrence on Mt Marsabit are low. For the future distribution modelling Mt Marsabit was removed from all analyses. (3) It is possible that the Arabica localities used for the modelling are actually now occurring in areas of marginal bioclimatic suitability. This is unlikely given the amount of contemporary locality data we have used, and also because the vast majority of localities have been recorded recently in what is considered to be an optimum PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 4 November 2012 | Volume 7 | Issue 11 | e47981