Climate Change and Indigenous Arabica Coffee Figure 5. Area analysis maps. Predicted climate change outcomes for indigenous Arabica for the year intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080. Thresholds (of bioclimatic suitability) applied at 68% (optimal), 95% (intermediate) and 100% (marginal). Black dots show historical and present day localities. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981.g005 potential distribution based on specialist knowledge of the vegetation [56,57] (S. Demissew, pers. comm.; I. Friis, pers. comm.; T. Gole, pers. observ.). Climate change scenarios (2020–2080) — a locality analysis In the locality analysis the future modelled scenarios show a dramatic and profound decrease in the number of predicted bioclimatically suitable localities for indigenous Arabica (Table 1; Figures 3 and 4). In the B2A scenario (lower energy requirements, but with emissions greater than the minimum), which is the most conservative of the scenarios employed, of the 349 localities of 2000 the number is down to 122 by 2080, representing a reduction of 65% of all 349 localities across all thresholds (i.e. 68%, 95% and 100%; Table 1; Figures 3 and 4). At the 68% (optimal) threshold for the B2A scenario, only 26 localities remain suitable, of the original 238 localities from 2000; 212 localities (c. 90%) are outside the 68% threshold, i.e. occurring in either intermediate, marginal, or outside all, suitable bioclimatic localities by 2080. The projections for the localities under other scenarios are even more startling. For A2A (high energy requirements) and A1B (maximum energy requirements with balance across energy sources), by 2080 there are 298 and 299 localities (respectively) outside all thresholds (68%, 95%, 100%) which represents a reduction of 85% of all Figure 6. Area analysis overview. Predicted climate change outcomes for indigenous Arabica for the year intervals 2020, 2050 and 2080. Stacked bar-charts based on area analysis maps (Figure 5). doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0047981.g006 PLOS ONE | www.plosone.org 7 November 2012 | Volume 7 | Issue 11 | e47981