Climate change vulnerability mapping 2010). However, confidence in expert opin‑ ion hinges on the validation of the experts’ specialized knowledge; here, we assess the reli‑ ability of some of the expert opinions in rela‑ tion to the peerr‑eviewed literature. Vector-borne diseases. The experts surveyed generally noted an expansion in the range of infectious diseases. In particular, respondents from northern countries, compared with those from southern countries, considered the edge of the geographic distribution limits of vector‑ borne diseases, such as Lyme borreliosis and TBE, to be susceptible to the effects of climate change (Figure 1A,B). This appraisal is con‑ sistent with findings from the peer‑ reviewed literature; for example, the main European tick vector, Ixodes ricinus, lives for several years and has been observed to have markedly changed its latitude distribution (northern Sweden) and altitude distribution (the Czech moun‑ tains) over the last 30 years (Daniel et al. 2009; Talleklint and Jaenson 1998). These distribu‑ tion changes have been reported to be cor‑ related with changes in the length of seasons (Jaenson and Lindgren 2011), climatic vari‑ ations (Materna et al. 2005), and the num‑ ber of degree‑days in different seasons with Affected Not affected No data Leptospirosis Cryptosporidiosis 0 175 350 700 1,050 1,400 Kilometers 0 175 350 700 1,050 1,400 Kilometers Salmonellosis Campylobacteriosis N N 0 175 350 700 1,050 1,400 Kilometers 0 175 350 700 1,050 1,400 Kilometers Figure 3. Responses from national infectious disease experts from EEA countries, 2009–2010, as to whether specific food­ and water­ borne diseases would be affected or not affected by climate change. (A) Leptospirosis. (B) Cryptosporidiosis. (C) Salmonellosis. (D) Campylobacteriosis. Data are based on the following sur­ vey question on future infectious disease risks in a changing climate: “Which infectious diseases do you think climate change will most affect in your country?” Table 3. Planning and preparedness for infectious disease threats attributed to climate change in Europe, according to infectious disease experts, 2009/2010. Questions on planning and preparedness for infectious disease threats Has your country completed a national assessment of the potential health impacts of climate change? If no (n = 18): Is your country planning or currently conducting a national assessment? Are there regional/local planning and coordination institutions to monitor and control climate-sensitive infectious diseases? Does your department have plans over the next 5 years for research on and response to climate-sensitive infectious diseases? If yes (n = 17): Are there plans to alter current vector-borne disease surveillance and control programs to address the threats of climate change? This includes changing the frequency or location of monitoring and surveillance programs to detect changes in geographic range or incidence. Are there plans to alter monitoring of water sources or water treatment regulations to address the threats of climate change? Are there plans to alter food safety and other regulations to address the threats of climate change? Are there plans to increase the human and material resources devoted to climate change risks? Does your National Climate Change Team/Committee explicitly include consideration of the infectious disease health risks of climate change? Did you or your department participate in the last two meetings of your National Climate Change Team/Committee? Does the National Climate Change Team/Committee have a strategy for communicating the risks of climate change to the geographic range and incidence of climate-sensitive infectious diseases? Environmental Health Perspectives • volume 120 | number 3 | March 2012 Yes/total (%) 9/27 (33) 3/12 (25) 14/29 (48) 17/29 (58) 15/17 (88) 4/16 (25) 3/14 (21) 6/17 (35) 14/25 (56) 8/16 (50) 5/13 (39) 389 N N