Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 923 Table 3. Estimated change in the number of malaria cases due to climate change in the past 20 years (a). Computed change in number of cases Average Cases Elasticity (%) per 1,000 Equivalent annual cases to 1 ºC to 1% people under percentage per 1,000 change change under observed change per people in in climate change 1,000 (1990–2000) Temp. Precip. past 20 years people Algeria 0.01 155.25 2.38 0.00 0.33 Benin 86.53 23.93 −0.50 −8.81 −0.10 Botswana 31.05 1.78 −0.02 0.23 0.01 Burkina 60.99 19.92 −0.66 −3.99 −0.07 Burundi 168.53 14.30 0.16 2.17 0.01 Central Afr. Rep. 32.36 −27.73 10.89 10.32 0.32 Chad 45.14 0.87 −0.15 −0.12 0.00 Cote d'Ivoire 55.56 183.91 −13.69 8.25 0.15 Djibouti 9.73 143.36 4.63 16.67 1.71 Egypt 0.00 132.28 1.13 0.00 0.72 Ethiopia 6.19 −46.19 −84.68 −32.22 −5.21 Ghana 120.89 34.86 −1.85 −7.35 −0.06 Guinea 67.27 −12.44 −12.25 −62.18 −0.92 Malawi 381.81 10.47 −3.08 81.22 0.21 Mali 27.40 11.59 −0.01 0.64 0.02 Mauritania 62.29 21.94 0.31 4.35 0.07 Morocco 0.01 313.46 9.85 0.01 1.10 Niger 96.78 14.84 0.23 7.38 0.08 Rwanda 165.90 30.98 −2.90 2.54 0.02 South Africa 0.51 3.89 0.11 0.00 0.00 Sudan 228.75 29.16 −1.34 −18.33 −0.08 Togo 112.28 8.37 −0.23 −4.43 −0.04 Uganda 92.24 4.39 −0.32 2.23 0.02 Tanzania 302.68 1.97 0.00 1.19 0.00 Zimbabwe 98 12.65 −0.53 2.68 0.03 (a) The formula used to calculate the projected cases is based on the definition of elasticity. Let the elasticity value of the number malaria cases with respect to 1 oC change in temperature be and the elasticity value of the number of malaria cases with respect to 1% change in precipitation be . If the projected change in temperature in degree Celsius is and the projected change in precipitation is expressed in percentage as , then knowing the current number of malaria cases average , the projected number of malaria cases is calculated as .