280 Abu El Makarem MA et al. Table 1. Distribution of patients with and with esophageal varices by Child-Pugh score Variables Child A Child B Patients with EVs a (No. = 131) (74.9%) 14 (10.7%) 52 (39.7%) Child C 65 (49.6%) 5 (11.4 %) a EVs = esophageal varices. Data are expressed as numbers and percentages and compared by chi-square test. Noninvasive prediction of esophageal varices Patients without EVs a (No. = 44) (25.1%) 32 (72.7%) 7 (15.9%) p-value 0.001 tropathy, and other findings. All endoscopies were per- formed by a single expert endoscopist who was blinded to the patient's data. Statistical analysis All data were tabulated. SPSS® (USA) version 11 was used for the statistical analysis. A descriptive analysis was per- formed for all data. Numerical data were expressed as mean ±SD and range, and categorical data were expressed as number and percentage. T-test was used to compare 2 independent groups of data. Chi-square test was used to compare categorical groups of data. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed on parameters that differed significantly in the univariate analysis between patients with no EVs and those with EVs to determine the variables that were independently associated with the presence of EVs. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were generated to determine the cutoff values for the best sensitivity and specificity of the variables with regard to the presence of EVs. Also, the ROC curves were used to identify the cutoff prevalence-adjusted negative and positive predictive values for the presence of EVs. The validity of the model was determined using the concor- dance (c) statistic (equivalent to the area under the ROC curve). A model with a c-value above 0.7 is considered to be useful, and a c-value between 0.8 and 0.9 indicates ex- cellent diagnostic accuracy. A P-value was considered to be nonsignificant if > 0.05 and significant if ≤ 0.05. Results Frequency of EVs and Correlation with Clinical, Labora- tory, and Radiology Findings One hundred fifteen men and 60 women were includ- ed in the study. The mean age was 48 years (range 36–60 years). Forty-six patients were Child-Pugh class A (26.3%), 59 were class B (33.7%), and 70 were class C (40%). EVs were detected in 131 patients (74.9%). Further, EVs were observed in 14 (30.4%) in the 46 patients with compen- sated cirrhosis. The presence of EVs correlated signifi- cantly with the severity of liver cirrhosis (p = 0.001), as measured by Child-Pugh score (Table 1). Patients with EVs were older; had lower platelet counts; higher Child- Pugh scores; developed hepatic encephalopathy, ascites, and jaundice more frequently; and had lower prothrom- bin concentrations, lower platelet count/bipolar spleen Table 2. Demographic, clinical, and laboratory characteristics of cirrhotics with and without esophageal varices Cirrhotics with EVs a (No. = 131) Cirrhotics without EVs a (No. = 44) 51.09 ± 5.1 83 (63.4 %) 48 (36.6 %) 131 (100%) 9.8 ± 2.8 119480.9 ± 38725.7 213000 ± 69232.6 Variables Age ( years) Sex Male (%) Female (%) Splenomegaly (%) Child-Pugh score Platelet count (No/cmm) a EVs = esophageal varices Variables PVD a (mm) Bipolar spleen diameter (mm) Platelet count/bipolar spleen diameter ratio MPBV b a PVD = portal vein diameter b MPBV = mean portal blood velocity c EVs = esophageal varices Table 3. Characteristics of imaging study in cirrhotics with and without esophageal varices 46.8 ± 7.9 32 (72.7 %) 12 (27.3%) 44 (100 %) 6.8 ± 2.3 12.4 ± 2.0 140.5 ± 20.7 1588.8 ± 744.9 12.8 ± 2.8 p-value 0.001 0.2 _ 0.001 0.001 p-value 0.07 0.001 0.001 0.9 Cirrhotics with EVs c (No. =131) Cirrhotics without EVs c (No. = 44) 13.04 ± 1.9 159.4 ± 24.2 747.6 ± 197.6 12.8 ± 2.2 Hepat Mon. 2011;11(4):278-284