Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 1002 So the bottom line is that both sides agree that the oceans should be warming if hypothesis 3 is correct, but current evidence is that they are not. So the CAGW feedback hypothesis fails this rather straightforward and simple test against real world data as well. 2.3.1.4. Observed Outgoing Radiation Fluxes from the Earth Decrease with Increases in Sea Surface Temperatures All the IPCC models show decreases in radiation fluxes leaving Earth with increases in global temperature, as might be expected under their greenhouse hypothesis. Satellite data, however, show an increase in outgoing radiation, which is inconsistent with the high climate sensitivities to increases in CO2 and positive feedback so crucial to the UN‘s case. In August, 2009, Lindzen and Choi published a paper [37] which inferred from satellite data that feedback is not positive at all. Using observations from the ERBE instrument on the ERBS satellite, they analyzed the relationship between tropical sea surface temperatures and top-of-the atmosphere heat radiation. This paper has been criticized by Trenberth et al. [38]. Lindzen and Choi have responded with a revised paper [39] using additional data from the CERES instrument on the Terra satellite, but with the same general results. Lindzen and Choi‘s revised paper [39] concludes that the satellite data implies a climate sensitivity of 0.7 °C, as compared to a CSF for CO2 alone of ―about 1 °C‖ [21] without any feedback. (In 1997 Lindzen testified [40] that the CO2 only CSF was 1.2 °C.). Spencer and Braswell [41], also using observational evidence from satellites, in this case from CERES and the AMSR-E instrument on the newer Aqua satellite, also found negative feedback and an amazingly similar CSF of only 0.6 °C. Spencer‘s argument can also be found in [42]. What this means is that there is a feedback, but it is negative, not positive as the IPCC maintains. So instead of an increase in the CSF due to feedback, which results in the IPCC assumed approximately 3 °C CSF, there is a decrease from the CO2 only value of 1.0 to 1.2 °C down to 0.6 to 0.7 °C. According to Spencer and Braswell [41], the models have misinterpreted cause and effect. They believe that it is changes in clouds that cause temperatures changes, not the other way around. Very recently, Dessler [43] claims that he has demonstrated that feedback is positive rather than negative. Spencer [44] has responded that Dessler missed his main point, that when cloud changes cause temperature changes it creates the illusion of a positive cloud feedback, but not the actuality. Although the Spencer/Dessler debate may not be over at this writing, all the other existing tests described above also all argue for a much lower CSF. Although the analyses of the first three do not specify a more appropriate number, Spencer/Braswell [41] and Lindzen/Choi [39] are consistent with them and are thus very plausible. 2.3.1.5. Conclusions from the Four Tests The conclusions are the same in each of these four cases: The UN feedback hypothesis is not supported or even partially supported by these comparisons with real world data. As Lindzen recently observed [45] with regard to his findings on comparison 4 above, ―In a normal field, these results would pretty much wrap things up, but global warming/climate change has developed so much momentum that it has a life of its own—quite removed from science.‖