Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2011, 8 925 Table 4. Projected cases change by the end of the century (2080–2100). Average annual Cases Elasticity (%) Projected increase/decrease cases to 1 ºC to 1% in cases per 1,000 people per 1,000 change change by the end of the people in in Century (2080–2100) (a) (1990–2000) Temp. Precip. Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Algeria 0.01 155.25 2.38 0.02 0.05 0.07 Benin 86.53 23.93 −0.50 41.17 67.48 90.42 Botswana 31.05 1.78 −0.02 1.14 1.91 2.61 Burkina 60.99 19.92 −0.66 25.49 39.28 50.66 Burundi 168.53 14.30 0.16 42.55 79.01 110.41 Central Afr. Rep. 32.36 −27.73 10.89 −47.88 −22.56 14.23 Chad 45.14 0.87 −0.15 1.33 1.16 0.75 Cote d’Ivoire 55.56 183.91 −13.69 252.40 321.99 358.53 Djibouti 9.73 143.36 4.63 23.77 47.80 71.26 Egypt 0.00 132.28 1.13 0.01 0.01 0.01 Ethiopia 6.19 −46.19 −84.68 10.57 −45.82 −143.26 Ghana 120.89 34.86 −1.85 96.03 134.58 162.20 Guinea 67.27 −12.44 −12.25 59.12 −44.10 −171.21 Malawi 381.81 10.47 −3.08 217.00 182.96 121.42 Mali 27.40 11.59 −0.01 5.74 10.48 14.89 Mauritania 62.29 21.94 0.31 22.84 45.49 67.35 Morocco 0.01 313.46 9.85 0.04 0.10 0.16 Niger 96.78 14.84 0.23 23.88 47.85 71.05 Rwanda 165.90 30.98 −2.90 106.97 130.78 100.65 RSA 0.51 3.89 0.11 0.03 0.07 0.10 Sudan 228.75 29.16 −1.34 129.26 192.00 210.21 Togo 112.28 8.37 −0.23 19.25 30.49 40.00 Uganda 92.24 4.39 −0.32 8.17 10.88 10.00 Tanzania 302.68 1.97 0.00 10.73 19.15 25.81 Zimbabwe 97.53 12.65 −0.53 29.66 0.00 4.84 (a) The formula used to calculate the projected cases is based on the definition of elasticity. Let the elasticity value of the number malaria cases with respect to 1oC change in temperature be and the elasticity value of the number of malaria cases with respect to 1% change in precipitation be . If the projected change in temperature in degree Celsius is and the projected change in precipitation is expressed in percentage as , then knowing the current number of malaria cases average , the projected number of malaria cases is calculated as . 9. Estimated Cost of Treatment for Future Cases The malaria outpatient and inpatient treatment cost is an economic burden for populations of endemic countries (all countries in this study are located in an endemic area except Algeria, Egypt, Morocco and South Africa). Outpatient treatment is related to treatments of mild cases using available malaria drugs without hospitalization for more than a day. However, for severe malaria cases (particularly for children under five) an inpatient treatment requiring hospitalization of several days is needed. The WHO recommends use of a line of drugs known as Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (ACTs) although these are currently less accessible because of cost, demand and supply