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Title: Normalizing Constant Estimation with Gaussianized Bridge Sampling

Paper content:
Normalizing constant (also called partition function, Bayesian evidence, or marginal likelihood) is one of the central goals of Bayesian inference, yet most of the existing methods are both expensive and inaccurate.
Here we develop a new approach, starting from posterior samples obtained with a standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC).
We apply a novel Normalizing Flow (NF) approach to obtain an analytic density estimator from these samples, followed by Optimal Bridge Sampling (OBS) to obtain the normalizing constant.
We compare our method which we call Gaussianized Bridge Sampling (GBS) to existing methods such as Nested Sampling (NS) and Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS) on several examples, showing our method is both significantly faster and substantially more accurate than these methods, and comes with a reliable error estimation.
Normalizing constant, also called partition function, Bayesian evidence, or marginal likelihood, is the central object of Bayesian methodology.
Despite its importance, existing methods are both inaccurate and slow, and may require specialized tuning.
One such method is Annealed Importance Sampling (AIS), and its alternative, Reverse AIS (RAIS), which can give stochastic lower and upper bounds to the normalizing constant, bracketing the true value (Neal, 2001; Grosse et al., 2015) .
However, as the tempered distribution may vary substantially with temperature, it can be expensive to obtain good samples at each temperature, which can lead to poor estimates (Murray et al., 2006) .
Nested sampling (NS) is another popular alternative (Skilling, 2004; Handley et al., 2015) , which can be significantly more expensive than standard sampling methods in higher dimensions but, as we show, can also lead to very inaccurate estimates.
Moreover, there is no simple way to know how accurate the estimate is.
Here we develop a new approach to the problem, combining Normalizing Flow (NF) density estimators with Optimal Bridge Sampling (OBS).
In a typical Bayesian inference application, we first obtain posterior samples using one of the standard Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
In our approach we use these samples to derive the normalizing constant with relatively few additional likelihood evaluations required, making the additional cost of normalizing constant estimation small compared to posterior sampling.
All of our calculations are run on standard CPU platforms, and will be available in the BayesFast Python package.
We present a new method to estimate the normalizing constant (Bayesian evidence) in the context of Bayesian analysis.
Our starting point are the samples from the posterior using standard MCMC based methods, and we assume that these have converged to the correct probability distribution.
In our approach we combine OBS with INT, a novel NF based density estimator, showing on several high dimensional examples that our method outperforms other approaches in terms of accuracy and computational cost, and provides a reliable error estimate.

assistant: text: We develop a new method for normalization constant (Bayesian evidence) estimation using Optimal Bridge Sampling and a novel Normalizing Flow, which is shown to outperform existing methods in terms of accuracy and computational time.