EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
 

Quantitative Risk Assessment 

Food Safety Improvements of Proposed Poultry Slaughter Rule
 

In June 2011, FSIS completed a quantitative risk assessment to determine how performing a 

greater number of sanitation, sampling, and other offline inspection procedures in young chicken 

and turkey slaughter establishments might affect the number of human illnesses from Salmonella 

and Campylobacter. These offline inspection procedures primarily involve activities that FSIS 

inspection personnel perform to verify the effectiveness of establishment sanitary operations and 

other health and safety-related activities. 

FSIS developed the risk assessment to help the Agency determine how it could help reduce risks 

to public health associated with processed poultry by improving its approach to inspection. The 

results of the risk assessment show that redeploying Agency resources from on-line inspection 

activities to unscheduled off-line activities to verify compliance with Sanitation SOPs, HACCP 

requirements, and other requirements that are important to food safety, results in a lower 

prevalence of carcasses contaminated with Salmonella and Campylobacter and is likely to result 

in a reduction in the number of human illnesses of 4286 and 986 respectively. 

To give the Agency the information it needed, the risk assessment focused on four risk 

management questions and concluded the following answers: 

(1) Can FSIS redeploy its inspection activities within official establishments without 

causing an increased prevalence of microbial pathogens in the establishments? 

The risk assessment showed that establishments with more unscheduled offline inspection 

activities have lower Salmonella and Campylobacter prevalence than establishments with fewer 

unscheduled offline activities. The assessment also suggested that illnesses attributable to both 

Salmonella and Campylobacter, would likely decline when additional unscheduled offline 

inspection procedures are performed. 

(2) Will redeploying inspectors to offline duties have an effect on the prevalence of 

microbial pathogens, and hence on human illness? 

The lower prevalence of Salmonella and Campylobacter on poultry at establishments where 

additional unscheduled offline procedures were performed would lead to as many as 4286 fewer 

Salmonella-related illnesses and 986 fewer Campylobacter-related illnesses per year. These 

numbers are based on the estimated 174,686 expected annual Salmonella illnesses attributable to 

both young chicken and turkey consumption, and an estimated 169,005 expected annual 

Campylobacter illnesses attributable to young chicken or turkey consumption.1 Thus, a reduction 

of 4286 expected Salmonella illnesses annually, reflects a 2.5% reduction in attributable 

illnesses. A reduction of 986 expected Campylobacter illnesses annually reflects a 0.6% 

reduction in attributable illnesses. 

1 12. Scallan, E. Hoekstra, R.M., Angulo, F.J., Tauxe, R.V., Widdowson, M-A, Roy, S.L., Jones, J.L. 

Griffin, P.M. (2011) Foodborne Illness Acquired in the United States—Major Pathogens. Emerging 

Infectious Disease.17 no. 1, 7-15, January 2011, DOI: 10.3201/eid1701.P11101 
 

(3) Where in a poultry establishment will redeployed inspection activities have the greatest 

effect in reducing the prevalence of microbial pathogens and thus, in reducing human 

illness? 

The risk assessment showed that the greatest effect on Salmonella and Campylobacter 

prevalence and related illness would occur when inspection activities were concentrated on 

increased unscheduled off-line procedures. These could include additional unscheduled 

sanitation procedures, additional unscheduled sampling procedures, or additional unscheduled 

HACCP procedures. 

(4) What is the quantitative uncertainty of the pathogen prevalence and illness reductions? 

FSIS analysts reflected the uncertainty of illness estimates by reporting not only expected values 

but also the upper and lower bounds of an 80-percent confidence band around the estimates. 

Thus, for example, they calculated the annual averted Salmonella illnesses to be as few as 1360 

and as many as 7904, and the averted Campylobacter illnesses as few as 12 and as many as 2977. 

Table 7 presents total estimated reductions in human illnesses relating to increased offline 

inspection procedures.