June 2007 

Results of an Additional 

Expert Elicitation on the 

Relative Risks of Meat and 

Poultry Products 

Draft Report 

Contract No. 53-3A94-03-12, Task Order 27 

Prepared for 

Matthew Michael 

Cynthia Williams 

U.S. Department of Agriculture 

Food Safety and Inspection Service 

Washington, DC 

Prepared by 

Shawn A. Karns 

Mary K. Muth 

Michaela C. Coglaiti 

RTI International 

3040 Cornwallis Road 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27709 

RTI Project Number 0208893.027 
Contents 

Section Page 

1 Introduction 1-1

2 Expert Elicitation Methodology 2-1

2.1 The Expert Panel .................................................... 2-1

2.2 Materials Developed for the Expert Elicitation

Process................................................................. 2-3

2.3 Recruitment and Data Collection Process ................... 2-4

3 Results 3-1

3.1 Introduction .......................................................... 3-1

3.2 The Likelihood of Illness Due to Consuming or 

Handling Processed Meat and Poultry Products ........... 3-3

3.3 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses to Specific 

Pathogens as a Result of Consuming or Handling 

Processed Meat and Poultry Products ........................ 3-7

4 References 4-1

Appendix 

A Elicitation Materials ................................................ A-1 

iii 
Tables 

Number Page 

2-1 Participants in the Expert Elicitation ................................. 2-2

 3-1 Finished Product Type Examples ...................................... 3-2

3-2 Ranking of Product Categories by the Likelihood of 

Illness Among Healthy Adults As a Result of Consuming

3-3 Ranking of Product Categories by the Likelihood of 

Illness Among Vulnerable Consumers as a Result of 

Consuming or Handling Each of 25 Finished Product

3-4 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Salmonella (NonTyphi) to Consuming or Handling Foods in 25 Processed 

3-5 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Salmonella 

(Multidrug Resistant) to the Consumption or Handling of 

Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product 

3-6 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of E. coli O157:H7 to 

the Consumption or Handling of Foods in 25 Processed 

3-7 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Listeria 

Monocytogenes to the Consumption or Handling of Foods 

3-8 Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Campylobacter 

jejuni/coli to the Consumption or Handling of Foods in 

or Handling Each of 25 Finished Product Types................... 3-5

Types .......................................................................... 3-6

Meat and Poultry Product Categories ................................ 3-8

Categories .................................................................... 3-9

Meat and Poultry Product Categories ...............................3-10

in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories.........3-11

25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories ............3-12

iv 
1 Introduction 

In response to comments 

received during a public 

workshop, FSIS 

contracted with RTI to 

conduct a new expert 

elicitation on processed 

meat and poultry 

products. 

In 2005, as part of the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s 

(USDA’s) agenda to develop and implement a more robust riskbased meat, poultry, and egg inspection system, the Food 

Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) contracted with RTI 

International to conduct an expert elicitation on the relative 

risks posed to public health by various types of processed meat 

and poultry products (Contract #43-3A94-2-0260). The 

description of the process and results of the expert elicitation 

are presented in an earlier report (Karns, Muth, and Coglaiti, 

2005). 

In October 2006, FSIS held a public workshop with its 

constituents to solicit feedback on the Agency’s plans for 

implementing risk-based inspection. In response to feedback 

from the public workshop participants, FSIS contracted with RTI 

to conduct another expert elicitation on inherent risk from 

processed meat and poultry products to better understand the 

results of the previous expert elicitation. This follow-on 

elicitation was similar to the previous elicitation but had several 

important modifications, including the following: 

 The expert panel was equally divided among scientists 

from the public health community, industry, and 

academic institutions. 

 Experts with advanced knowledge in a branch of science 

related to both food safety and public health were 

recruited. 

 A second worksheet was added to allow experts to rank 

their responses by the likelihood of illness among 

vulnerable consumers. 

 The scoring procedures for the first two worksheets set a 

maximum of 10 instead of open-ended scoring. 

 A third worksheet was added to allow experts to 

attribute foodborne illnesses of five pathogens to the 

1-1 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

consumption of foods in 25 processed meat and poultry 

product categories. 

This report is organized as follows. Section 2 describes the 

process RTI followed for conducting the expert elicitation. 

Section 3 presents the results of the expert elicitation for each 

of the three worksheets. 

In Appendix A, we provide copies of the worksheets completed 

by the experts during the expert elicitation. 

1-2 
2 Expert Elicitation 

Methodology 

In this section, we describe the methodology of the expert 

elicitation. We describe the process used to identify and recruit 

the experts, the development of the elicitation materials, and 

the procedures for the expert elicitation. 

2.1 THE EXPERT PANEL 

RTI recruited a total of 17 experts for the panel. The expert 

panel was composed of 

 four experts from the public health community, 

 eight industry scientists, and 

 five academic participants. 

Table 2-1 lists the panelists and their areas of specialization. 

As a result of feedback As a result of feedback from the previous expert elicitation, 

from the previous expert FSIS decided that the three areas of expertise—public health, 

elicitation, FSIS decided academia, and industry—would be equally represented on the 

expert panel. To accomplish this balanced panel, RTI randomly that the three areas of 

expertise—public health, selected four experts from each of the industry and academic 

academia, and industry— areas of expertise for a total of 12 experts. The results 

would be equally presented in Section 3 contain only the responses of the 12 

represented on the expert randomly selected experts. 

panel. The experts were recruited from a list of 45 potential experts 

identified by FSIS, the National Advisory Committee on Meat 

and Poultry Inspection (NACMPI) subcommittee, and RTI. The 

specific criteria used to select the panelists included 

2-1 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 2-1. Participants in the Expert Elicitation 

Panelist Organization Expertise Area 

Elizabeth Boyle Kansas State University Academia 

Dean Cliver University of California, Davis Public health 

Russell Cross Texas A&M Industry 

James Dickson Iowa State University Academia 

Warren Dorsa John Morrell and Company Industry 

Mike Doyle University of Georgia Academia 

Timothy Freier Cargill, Inc. Industry 

Dee Griffin University of Nebraska Academia 

Suzanne Jenkins Virginia Department of Health Public health 

Cindy Jiang McDonald’s Corporation Industry 

Laurene Mascola Los Angeles County Department of Health 

Services Public health 

Edward Mather Michigan State University Academia 

Joe Meyer Kraft Foods Global, Inc. Industry 

Dale Morse New York State Department of Health Public health 

Robert Savage HAACP Consulting Group, LLC Industry 

Virginia Scott Food Products Association Industry 

Peter Taormina The Coca-Cola Company Industry 

 advanced knowledge and professional recognition in a 

branch of science related to both public health and food 

safety1

 and 

 an understanding of food science, meat and poultry 

processing, and foodborne illness. 

The recruitment process is described in more detail in Section 

2.3. 

1

 “Advanced knowledge” means a postbaccalaureate degree. 

“Professional recognition” means peer-reviewed publications or 

presentations at national meetings. 

2-2 
Section 2 — Expert Elicitation Methodology 

2.2 

The worksheets developed 

for the expert elicitation 

included risk ranking 

worksheets similar to the 

2005 expert elicitation 

and a new foodborne 

illness attribution 

worksheet. 

MATERIALS DEVELOPED FOR THE EXPERT 

ELICITATION PROCESS 

We developed the following documents to use in conducting the 

expert elicitation: 

 A project description, developed by RTI, provided to the 

panelists prior to agreeing to participate in the expert 

elicitation process. The document described the reason 

we were conducting an expert elicitation, and our 

expectations for the experts. 

 FSIS, in collaboration with RTI, developed three 

elicitation worksheets with instructions and 

assumptions: 

– Worksheets 1 and 2 rank the public health risks 

posed by bacterial hazards in each of 25 categories 

of processed meat and poultry products for healthy 

adults and for vulnerable consumers, respectively. 

– Worksheet 3 estimates the percentages of U.S. 

illnesses caused by consuming or handling meat and 

poultry and attributed to specific meat or poultry 

product and bacterial pathogen combinations. 

 Examples of products, developed by FSIS, for each of 

the 25 meat and poultry product categories. 

Appendix A contains copies of the project description and 

elicitation worksheets. Section 3 includes the list of example 

products. 

RTI conducted several teleconference calls with FSIS project 

team members to discuss modifications to the existing 

materials and procedures used in the previous elicitation. FSIS 

sent out a preliminary draft of the worksheet for peer review. 

The peer reviewers were a senior advisor for regulatory 

support, a veterinary epidemiologist, a deputy director for 

research, and a senior scientist. They represented four different 

agencies: Food and Drug Administration, Environmental 

Protection Agency, USDA’s Economic Research Service, and 

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service. RTI worked 

with FSIS to determine how to modify the worksheets in 

response to the peer reviewers’ comments. 

As a result of discussions between RTI and FSIS and the peer 

reviewers’ comments, RTI made the following modifications to 

the elicitation materials and procedures: 

2-3 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

 The product category “Thermally processed, 

commercially sterile” was added to the list of processed 

meat and poultry product categories. 

 A second worksheet was added to allow experts to rank 

the public health risks posed by bacterial hazards in 

each of 25 categories of processed meat and poultry 

products for vulnerable consumers.2 

 The scoring procedures for the first two worksheets set a 

maximum score of 10 instead of open-ended scoring. 

 The scoring procedures asked the experts to consider 

only bacterial hazards and not to consider chemical and 

physical hazards. 

 Experts were asked to rank their confidence in their 

estimates on a scale of 1 to 3, with 1 indicating “little or 

no confidence” and 3 indicating “very confident.” 

 A third worksheet was added to allow the experts to 

attribute foodborne illnesses of five pathogens to the 

consumption of foods in 25 processed meat and poultry 

product categories. 

In addition to the materials provided to the panelists, RTI also 

developed a moderator’s guide for conducting a kickoff 

teleconference with all of the experts. The moderator’s guide 

provided a list of discussion topics for the teleconference 

moderator to cover before discussing the worksheets in detail. 

The list of topics included the purpose of the expert elicitation, 

housekeeping items (deadlines for completion and contractual 

issues), and background information on the project. 

2.3 RECRUITMENT AND DATA COLLECTION 

PROCESS 

The process RTI followed for conducting the expert elicitation 

included a recruitment phase and a data collection stage. We 

began recruiting the experts on April 3, 2007, and completed 

data collection on May 21, 2007. In recruiting the experts, we 

 contacted the 45 potential experts (15 public health, 15 

academic, and 15 industry) to determine their 

availability and willingness to participate; 

2

 Vulnerable consumers were defined as the very young, the elderly, 

pregnant women and their fetuses, and those with compromised 

immune systems. 

2-4 
Section 2 — Expert Elicitation Methodology 

 set up a panel participation (consulting) agreement with 

each expert who agreed to participate;3

 and 

 developed a timeline for conducting the expert 

elicitations, including scheduling conference calls and 

delivering documents by e-mail. 

Of the 45 potential experts contacted, 

 17 experts agreed to participate; 

 2 experts initially agreed to participate but had to drop 

out due to scheduling conflicts; 

 12 experts declined mainly due to scheduling conflicts; 

and 

 14 experts could not be reached despite repeated 

attempts by e-mail and telephone calls over 4 weeks. 

After RTI contracted with the 17 experts to serve on the panel, 

we conducted the following activities during the data collection 

phase: 

 scheduled and hosted teleconferences with the experts 

to discuss the purpose of the data collection, review the 

worksheets, and respond to questions; 

 requested that the experts complete the worksheets 

using approximately 1 day of consulting time over 

approximately 7 days; and 

 obtained the completed worksheets and lists of cited 

references from the consultants. 

Once we obtained the completed worksheets, we entered data 

from all the experts into a spreadsheet. Because FSIS wanted 

equal numbers of experts for all three areas of expertise, we 

randomly selected four experts in each area (with the exception 

of public health specialists because only four participated) to 

include in the aggregated responses. The aggregated responses 

are described in Section 3. 

3

 Some panel participants (i.e., government employees) were not able 

to accept an honorarium; thus, the panel participation agreement 

was not necessary. 

2-5 
3 Results 

In this section, we present the detailed results of the expert 

elicitation process for the three worksheets. FSIS will use the 

data collected from the expert elicitation as one factor in 

determining how to allocate inspection resources. 

3.1 INTRODUCTION 

To ensure consistency of product definitions, FSIS provided a 

list of example products for each of the 25 processed meat and 

poultry product categories. The product categories along with 

their examples are presented in Table 3-1. These examples are 

the same as for the 2005 expert elicitation except that 

thermally processed, commercially sterile products were added. 

The assumptions for the Before completing the elicitation worksheets, the expert panel 

risk ranking are the same was first asked to take into account the product examples 

as for the 2005 expert provided by FSIS and the following scoring assumptions for 

elicitation except that Worksheets 1 and 2: 

experts were asked to  Consider only bacterial hazards. Do not consider illness 

consider only bacterial caused by viruses, chemical hazards, or physical 

hazards. hazards. 

 Each of the 25 finished products will reach the consumer 

without further processing at another establishment or 

at retail. Examples of each of the finished product types 

are provided in the attached table titled “Finished 

Product Type Examples.” 

 Each product is produced in a USDA-regulated 

processing plant that operates under sanitation standard 

operating procedures (SSOP) and a Hazard Analysis 

Critical Control Point (HACCP) system. 

 The incoming source material (raw meat or poultry and 

other ingredients) for the processed product comes from 

3-1 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 3-1. Finished Product Type Examples 

Finished Product Type Product Examples 

Raw intact beef 

Raw intact pork 

Raw intact meat—other (sheep, goat) 

Raw intact chicken 

Raw intact turkey 

Raw intact poultry—other (ducks, geese, 

squab) 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact meat—other (sheep, goat) 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise

nonintact poultry—other (ducks, geese, 

squab) 

Raw otherwise processed meat 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without

cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without

cooking) 

RTE dried meat

RTE dried poultry 

RTE salt-cured meat 

RTE salt-cured poultry 

RTE fully cooked meat 

RTE fully cooked poultry 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 

Steaks, roasts 

Chops, roasts, ribs, loins 

Chops, roasts 

Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, parts (including 

necks/feet and giblets), boneless/skinless parts 

Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, parts (including 

necks/feet and giblets), boneless/skinless parts 

Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, carcass parts 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

AMRa 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

AMRa

, MSb pork 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

MSb

 chicken 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

MSb

 turkey 

Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

MSb

 poultry 

Batter set nuggets and tenders, char marked patties 

Batter set nuggets and breaded parts, partially cooked 

rolls and loaves 

Genoa salami, hard salami, pepperoni 

Turkey pepperoni

Dried beef, jerky, landjager, meat sticks, some chorizo

Jerky (basically turkey) 

Country ham, prosciutto, coppa, capocolla, basturma, 

bresaola

Ducks, geese 

Hot dogs, deli meats, roasts 

Whole birds, parts, hot dogs, deli items, roasts 

Cooked in package (canned ham (not shelf stable),

cook-in-bag), hot packed (chili, sauces, soups) 

Cooked in package (cook-in-bag), hot packed (soups) 

Canned meat or poultry products (canned ham, canned 

chicken, chili, sauces, soups) 

a

AMR = Advanced Meat Recovery. 

b

MS = Mechanically separated. 

3-2 
Section 3 — Results 

a slaughter plant, trim producer, grinder, or other firm 

with average or typical food safety controls. 

 The processing plant’s food safety controls are average 

or typical; do not think of extreme or unusual processing 

situations. 

 The products receive typical handling by all parties from 

the time the products leave the processing plant through 

the time they are consumed (so you may account for 

safe handling or mishandling if you believe either to be 

typical). 

 Raw products are cooked before consumption. 

 None of the products are irradiated. 

 In regard to the ready-to-eat (RTE) products: 

– Unless specifically stated in the product description 

on the worksheet, all are exposed to the 

environment during handling after lethality 

treatment(s); 

– None contain an additive to inhibit growth of L. 

monocytogenes; and 

– None receive any postlethality treatment to destroy 

L. monocytogenes. 

In the sections that follow, we present the expert panel results 

related to the likelihood of illness among healthy adult 

consumers and vulnerable consumers due to consuming or 

handling each of the 25 finished product types and the burden 

of illness that is caused by specific pathogens and meat and 

poultry product combinations. The results presented here 

aggregate experts’ rankings across all three areas of expertise. 

The individual rankings were provided to FSIS in three Excel 

spreadsheets. The worksheets also contain brief comments 

provided by the experts on their individual estimates. 

3.2 THE LIKELIHOOD OF ILLNESS DUE TO 

CONSUMING OR HANDLING PROCESSED 

MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTS 

The purpose of the expert elicitation was to rank the public 

health risks posed by bacterial hazards in each of 25 categories 

of processed meat and poultry products. 

Using a scale of 1 to 10, the panel was asked to rank the 

likelihood of illness from consuming or handling each of the 25 

finished product types among healthy adult consumers 

3-3 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

(Worksheet 1) and then among vulnerable consumers 

(Worksheet 2). Vulnerable consumers were defined as the very 

young, the elderly, pregnant women and their fetuses, and 

those with compromised immune systems. 

In this scale, a value of 1 represented the least likelihood of 

illness and a value of 10 represented the greatest likelihood of 

illness. The panelists could assign the same score to two or 

more products if they believed that the likelihood was the same 

for multiple products. The experts were required to assign at 

least one product category with a value of 1 and at least one 

product category with a value of 10. The panelists could also 

use fractions between the numbers 1 and 10. 

Table 3-2 presents the median, minimum, and maximum 

scores for each product category for healthy adult consumers 

based on the completed worksheets from all 12 experts. Table 

3-3 presents the corresponding information for vulnerable 

consumers. 

In both tables, thermally processed, commercially sterile 

products were ranked as having the lowest risk, and raw 

ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 

products were ranked as having the highest risk. In general, 

results are similar between the two worksheets. In particular, 

 raw products were generally assigned higher rankings, 

and RTE products were generally assigned lower 

rankings, and 

 poultry products generally were ranked higher than red 

meat products. 

However, the opinions of the experts varied substantially with 

the full range of scores used for many of the product 

categories. 

The panel was also asked to indicate their level of experience 

with illness in the population of interest and each of the finished 

product categories: 1 indicates a low level, 2 indicates a 

medium level, and 3 indicates a high level of experience. For 

the healthy adult population, the panel had at least a medium 

level of experience in 16 of the 25 product categories. For 

vulnerable consumers, the panel had at least a medium level of 

experience in 24 of the 25 product categories. 

3-4 
Section 3 — Results 

Table 3-2. Ranking of Product Categories by the Likelihood of Illness Among Healthy Adults 

as a Result of Consuming or Handling Each of 25 Finished Product Types 

Median Minimum Maximum Level of 

Finished Product Type Score Score Score Experience 

Raw intact beef 5.5 1.0 8.0 2.6 

Raw intact pork 5.0 1.0 8.0 2.5 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 5.5 1.0 8.0 1.7 

Raw intact chicken 8.0 2.0 10.0 2.6 

Raw intact turkey 8.0 2.0 10.0 2.5 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or 8.0 1.0 9.0 1.9 

turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 8.0 3.0 10.0 2.5 

nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 6.0 2.0 10.0 2.3 

nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 7.0 1.0 10.0 1.7 

nonintact meat—other than beef or pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 10.0 4.0 10.0 2.6 

nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 9.0 4.0 10.0 2.3 

nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 8.5 1.0 10.0 1.8 

nonintact poultry—other than chicken or 

turkey 

Raw otherwise processed meat 7.0 1.0 8.0 1.9 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 7.0 2.0 10.0 2.0 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without 3.5 1.0 7.0 1.9 

cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without 4.0 1.0 6.0 1.9 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat 3.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 

RTE dried poultry 3.0 1.0 5.0 2.0 

RTE salt-cured meat 3.0 1.0 6.0 1.9 

RTE salt-cured poultry 3.0 1.0 8.0 1.8 

RTE fully cooked meat 2.5 1.0 8.0 2.6 

RTE fully cooked poultry 3.0 1.0 8.0 2.6 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent 1.6 1.0 4.0 2.4 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 1.6 1.0 4.0 2.5 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 

3-5 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 3-3. Ranking of Product Categories by the Likelihood of Illness Among Vulnerable 

Consumers as a Result of Consuming or Handling Each of 25 Finished Product Types 

Level of 

Finished Product Type Median Minimum Maximum Experience 

Raw intact beef 5.5 1.0 9.0 2.6 

Raw intact pork 5.5 1.0 8.0 2.6 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 6.5 1.0 8.0 2.0 

Raw intact chicken 8.5 4.0 10.0 2.6 

Raw intact turkey 8.0 4.0 10.0 2.6 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or 8.0 2.0 9.0 2.1 

turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 9.5 4.0 10.0 2.5 

nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 7.0 2.0 10.0 2.5 

nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 7.5 1.0 10.0 1.8 

nonintact meat—other than beef or pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 10.0 4.0 10.0 2.6 

nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 9.0 4.0 10.0 2.5 

nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 9.0 2.0 10.0 2.0 

nonintact poultry—other than chicken or 

turkey 

Raw otherwise processed meat 7.5 3.0 9.0 2.1 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 7.5 2.0 10.0 2.1 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without 5.0 1.0 7.0 2.0 

cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without 5.0 1.0 8.0 2.0 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat 4.0 1.0 6.0 2.1 

RTE dried poultry 4.0 1.0 6.0 2.1 

RTE salt-cured meat 3.3 1.0 7.0 2.0 

RTE salt-cured poultry 3.3 1.0 9.0 2.0 

RTE fully cooked meat 5.5 1.0 10.0 2.7 

RTE fully cooked poultry 5.0 1.0 10.0 2.7 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent 2.0 1.0 5.0 2.5 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 2.0 1.0 5.0 2.4 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.5 

3-6 
Section 3 — Results 

3.3 ATTRIBUTION OF FOODBORNE ILLNESSES 

TO SPECIFIC PATHOGENS AS A RESULT OF 

CONSUMING OR HANDLING PROCESSED 

MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTS 

The experts were also asked to attribute foodborne illnesses of 

five pathogens to handling and consuming foods in 25 

processed meat and poultry product categories. Tables 3-4 

through 3-8 provide the aggregated results of attribution by 

product category for each of the five pathogens. The 

percentages indicate the percentage of illnesses resulting from 

handling and consuming each category of processed meat and 

poultry products. The products with the highest attribution 

percentages for each of the pathogens were as follows: 

 Salmonella (non-typhi): raw intact chicken (22%); raw 

intact turkey (14%); and raw ground, comminuted, or 

otherwise nonintact chicken (9%). 

 Salmonella (multidrug resistant): raw ground, 

comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef (20%); raw 

intact chicken (19%); and raw ground, comminuted, or 

otherwise nonintact chicken (8%). 

 E. coli O157:H7: raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise 

nonintact beef (57%); raw ground, comminuted, or 

otherwise nonintact meat—other than beef or pork 

(14%); and raw intact beef (8%). 

 Listeria monocytogenes: RTE fully cooked meat (30%); 

RTE fully cooked poultry (25%), and RTE 

acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) (6%). 

 Campylobacter jejuni/coli: raw intact chicken (36%); 

raw intact turkey (13%); and raw ground, comminuted, 

or otherwise nonintact chicken (12%). 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile products had 

the lowest mean attribution (0.1% or less) across all 

pathogens. 

The products with the highest attribution percentages for each 

of the pathogens were also the products with the widest range 

of attribution percentages. The wider ranges indicate less 

agreement among the experts. 

3-7 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 3-4. Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Salmonella (Non-Typhi) to Consuming or 

Handling Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories 

Finished Product Type Mean Minimum Maximum 

Raw intact beef 4.6% 0.0% 15.0% 

Raw intact pork 2.8% 0.0% 9.0% 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 2.7% 0.5% 10.0% 

Raw intact chicken 22.0% 10.0% 50.0% 

Raw intact turkey 14.1% 3.0% 40.0% 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey 3.7% 0.5% 10.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

beef 8.4% 2.0% 22.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

pork 4.3% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

meat—other than beef or pork 2.2% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

chicken 8.9% 1.0% 20.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

turkey 6.8% 1.0% 15.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

poultry—other than chicken or turkey 2.8% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw otherwise processed meat 3.5% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 5.6% 0.0% 15.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 1.6% 0.0% 3.0% 

RTE dried meat 0.9% 0.0% 4.0% 

RTE dried poultry 1.0% 0.0% 4.0% 

RTE salt-cured meat 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE salt-cured poultry 0.6% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE fully cooked meat 0.5% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE fully cooked poultry 1.0% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure 

to the environment 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Total 100% 

Mean Level of Expertise 2.2 

3-8 
Section 3 — Results 

Table 3-5. Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Salmonella (Multidrug Resistant) to 

Consuming or Handling Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories 

Finished Product Type Mean Minimum Maximum 

Raw intact beef 5.3% 0.0% 14.0% 

Raw intact pork 2.6% 0.0% 8.0% 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 2.3% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw intact chicken 19.3% 1.0% 60.0% 

Raw intact turkey 8.1% 0.0% 25.0% 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey 2.5% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

beef 20.0% 1.0% 74.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

pork 6.2% 0.0% 12.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

meat—other than beef or pork 2.4% 0.0% 15.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

chicken 8.2% 0.0% 16.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

turkey 6.7% 0.0% 16.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

poultry—other than chicken or turkey 2.2% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw otherwise processed meat 3.1% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 4.3% 0.0% 16.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 0.9% 0.0% 3.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 1.5% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE dried meat 0.4% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE dried poultry 0.6% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE salt-cured meat 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE salt-cured poultry 0.8% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE fully cooked meat 0.5% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE fully cooked poultry 0.9% 0.0% 7.0% 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure 

to the environment 0.5% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 0.6% 0.0% 5.0% 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Total 100% 

Mean Level of Expertise 1.7 

3-9 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 3-6. Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of E. coli O157:H7 to Consuming or Handling 

Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories 

Finished Product Type Mean Minimum Maximum 

Raw intact beef 8.4% 0.0% 20.0% 

Raw intact pork 1.3% 0.0% 7.0% 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 2.6% 0.0% 20.0% 

Raw intact chicken 1.1% 0.0% 12.0% 

Raw intact turkey 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey 0.7% 0.0% 6.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

beef 57.0% 0.0% 92.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

pork 1.4% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

meat—other than beef or pork 13.8% 0.0% 75.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

chicken 0.4% 0.0% 3.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

turkey 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

poultry—other than chicken or turkey 0.4% 0.0% 3.0% 

Raw otherwise processed meat 2.9% 0.0% 7.0% 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 0.6% 0.0% 4.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 4.2% 0.0% 15.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 0.3% 0.0% 3.0% 

RTE dried meat 1.3% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE dried poultry 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE salt-cured meat 0.8% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE salt-cured poultry 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE fully cooked meat 1.1% 0.0% 8.0% 

RTE fully cooked poultry 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure 

to the environment 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Total 100% 

Mean Level of Expertise 2.3 

3-10 
Section 3 — Results 

Table 3-7. Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Listeria Monocytogenes to Consuming or 

Handling Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories 

Finished Product Type Mean Minimum Maximum 

Raw intact beef 1.4% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw intact pork 0.6% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 0.4% 0.0% 3.0% 

Raw intact chicken 1.3% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw intact turkey 0.8% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey 1.4% 0.0% 7.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

beef 1.9% 0.0% 15.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

pork 0.9% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

meat—other than beef or pork 0.8% 0.0% 4.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

chicken 1.3% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

turkey 1.2% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

poultry—other than chicken or turkey 0.9% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw otherwise processed meat 1.5% 0.0% 8.0% 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 1.4% 0.0% 7.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 6.4% 0.0% 40.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 4.4% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE dried meat 3.2% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE dried poultry 3.2% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE salt-cured meat 3.6% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE salt-cured poultry 4.0% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE fully cooked meat 30.2% 0.0% 95.0% 

RTE fully cooked poultry 25.0% 0.0% 58.0% 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure 

to the environment 2.1% 0.0% 10.0% 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 2.0% 0.0% 12.0% 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 

Total 100% 

Mean Level of Expertise 2.4 

3-11 
Results of an Additional Expert Elicitation on the Relative Risks of Meat and Poultry Products 

Table 3-8. Attribution of Foodborne Illnesses of Campylobacter jejuni/coli to Consuming or 

Handling Foods in 25 Processed Meat and Poultry Product Categories 

Finished Product Type Mean Minimum Maximum 

Raw intact beef 2.3% 0.0% 8.0% 

Raw intact pork 2.5% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw intact meat—other than beef or pork 1.4% 0.0% 5.0% 

Raw intact chicken 36.1% 5.0% 90.0% 

Raw intact turkey 12.6% 2.0% 40.0% 

Raw intact poultry—other than chicken or turkey 4.3% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

beef 2.4% 0.0% 8.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

pork 2.9% 0.0% 15.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

meat—other than beef or pork 1.1% 0.0% 6.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

chicken 12.4% 0.0% 25.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

turkey 7.8% 0.0% 20.0% 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact 

poultry—other than chicken or turkey 2.3% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw otherwise processed meat 1.8% 0.0% 10.0% 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 6.6% 0.0% 20.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without cooking) 1.2% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE dried meat 0.2% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE dried poultry 0.4% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE salt-cured meat 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE salt-cured poultry 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

RTE fully cooked meat 0.3% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE fully cooked poultry 0.7% 0.0% 5.0% 

RTE meat fully cooked without subsequent exposure 

to the environment 0.1% 0.0% 1.0% 

RTE poultry fully cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 0.3% 0.0% 2.0% 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 

Total 100% 

Mean Level of Expertise 2.0 

3-12 
4 References 

Karns, S., M. Muth, and M. Cogliaiti. September 2005. 

Memorandum prepared for USDA, FSIS. “Relative Risks 

of Meat and Poultry Products: An Expert Elicitation.” 

http://www.fsis.usda.gov/PDF/Elicitation_Memo_092205 

.pdf. 

4-1 
Appendix A: 

Elicitation 

Materials 
EXPERT ELICITATION 

RTI Project No. 0208893.027 

PROJECT DESCRIPTION 

THE LIKELIHOOD AND ATTRIBUTION OF FOODBORNE ILLNESSES DUE TO 

CONSUMING OR HANDLING PROCESSED MEAT AND POULTRY PRODUCTS: AN 

Description 

The U.S. Department of Agriculture, Food Safety and Inspection Service (USDA, FSIS) 

has contracted with RTI International (RTI) to assist in conducting an expert elicitation. The 

purposes of this expert elicitation are to: 

(1) rank the public health risks posed by bacterial hazards in each of 25 categories of 

processed meat and poultry products for healthy adults and for vulnerable 

consumers and 

(2) estimate the percentages of U.S. illnesses caused by consuming or handling meat 

and poultry and attributed to specific meat or poultry product and bacterial 

pathogen combinations. 

We are asking for your assistance as a participant in the expert elicitation process to 

complete three worksheets. Worksheets 1 and 2 concern the likelihood of illness among healthy 

adult consumers and vulnerable consumers. Worksheet 3 concerns the burden of illness that is 

caused by specific meat or poultry product and bacterial pathogen combinations. While scoring 

the categories, we will ask that you consider only biological hazards, i.e., pathogens. The results 

of the expert elicitation will be used by FSIS in the development of its risk-based inspection 

initiatives. 

What We Would Need from You 

If you agree to participate in the expert elicitation process, you will need to do the 

following: 

• complete the accompanying Interest Form; 

• review the three worksheets you will be completing for the expert elicitation; 

• participate in a 45-minute teleconference to discuss the worksheets and ask questions 

about the process; 

• using resources at your disposal, complete the worksheets providing your best 

estimates of the needed information within one week of the initial teleconference; and 

• deliver your responses to the worksheets and a list of citations to RTI by Federal 

Express or e-mail. 

To compensate you for your time, we will pay you an honorarium of $250 for completing 

the worksheets. If you are not able to accept the honorarium, we would still like to encourage 

your participation. 

A-1 
For additional information on this project, you can contact: 

Shawn Karns 

Food and Agricultural Policy Research Program

RTI International 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2194 

E-mail: karns@rti.org 

Phone: 919-541-6380 

RTI is an independent, nonprofit organization that serves clients in government, industry, 

academia, and public service throughout the United States and abroad. Our headquarters are 

located on a 180-acre campus in Research Triangle Park, NC, and we employ a worldwide staff 

of more than 2,000 people. The Food and Agriculture Policy Program at RTI has been 

conducting analyses of the economic effects of food safety and nutrition regulations for USDA 

and FDA for more than 15 years. 

A-2 
WORKSHEETS ON THE LIKELIHOOD AND ATTRIBUTION OF FOODBORNE 

ILLNESSES DUE TO CONSUMING OR HANDLING PROCESSED MEAT AND 

POULTRY PRODUCTS: AN EXPERT ELICITATION 

The purpose of this expert elicitation is to rank the public health risks posed by 

bacterial hazards in each of 25 categories of processed meat and poultry products. Along 

with the risks posed by meat and poultry products to healthy adults, we will be eliciting your 

opinion about risks to the vulnerable population, who are the most susceptible to severe 

foodborne illnesses. FSIS will use the data from this elicitation as one factor in determining 

how to allocate inspection resources. You will complete 3 worksheets. We are asking you 

to: 

1) Rank product categories by the likelihood of illness among healthy adults due to 

consuming or handling various types of processed meat and poultry products; 

2) Rank product categories by the likelihood of illness among vulnerable consumers due 

to consuming or handling various types of processed meat and poultry products; and 

3) Estimate the percentages of U.S. illnesses caused by consuming or handling meat 

and poultry and attributed to specific meat or poultry product and bacterial pathogen 

combinations. 

If you have questions, please contact Shawn Karns at 919-541-6380 or karns@rti.org. 

Please return the completed worksheet by email, fax, or FedEx: 

Email: coglaiti@rti.org 

Fax: 919-541-6683, Attn: Michaela Cimini Coglaiti 

FedEx: Michaela Cimini Coglaiti 

RTI International 

REPR, Hobbs 123 

3040 Cornwallis Rd. 

Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2194 

(919) 990-8498 

A-3 
Assumptions - Worksheets 1 and 2 

Consider only bacterial hazards. Do not consider illness caused by viruses, chemical 

hazards or physical hazards. Take into account all that you know about meat and poultry 

science, food processing, food transport, consumer handling, and foodborne illness, but 

assume the following when scoring: 

• Each of the 25 finished products will reach the consumer without further processing 

at another establishment or at retail. Examples of each of the finished product types 

are provided in the attached table titled “Finished Product Type Examples.” 

• Each product is produced in a USDA-regulated processing plant that operates under 

sanitation standard operating procedures (SSOP) and a Hazard Analysis Critical 

Control Point (HACCP) system. 

• The incoming source material (raw meat or poultry and other ingredients) for the 

processed product comes from a slaughter plant, trim producer, grinder, or other 

firm with average or typical food safety controls. 

• The processing plant’s food safety controls are average or typical; do not think of 

extreme or unusual processing situations. 

• The products receive typical handling by all parties from the time the products leave 

the processing plant through the time they are consumed (so you may account for 

safe handling or mishandling if you believe either to be typical). 

• Raw products are cooked before consumption. 

• None of the products are irradiated. 

• In regard to the ready-to-eat (RTE) products: 

o Unless specifically stated in the product description on the worksheet, all are 

exposed to the environment during handling after lethality treatment(s); 

o None contain an additive to inhibit growth of L. monocytogenes; 

o None receive any post-lethality treatment to destroy L. monocytogenes. 

A-4 
Scoring Instructions - Worksheets 1 and 2 

The finished product types are listed in the first column. Example products of each 

type are given in the attached table. 

In the second column, using a scale of 1 through 10, rank the likelihood of illness 

from consuming or handling each of the 25 finished product types among healthy adult 

consumers (Worksheet 1) and then among vulnerable consumers (Worksheet 2). 

Vulnerable consumers are the very young, the elderly, pregnant women and their fetuses, 

and those with compromised immune systems. Remember to consider only illnesses caused 

by bacteria. 

In this scale, “1” represents the least likelihood of illness and “10” represents the 

greatest likelihood of illness. You may use fractions. You also may score two or more 

product types the same if you believe the likelihood is the same, including your highest and 

lowest rankings. You must rank at least one product type as a “1” and another as a “10.” 

When you enter your ranking for each type of processed product, imagine that the 

product is on a consumer’s kitchen counter. The product has been produced, handled and 

shipped according to the assumptions for Worksheets 1 and 2. The consumer will handle 

and prepare the product “typically,” i.e. in the manner most consumers would handle and 

prepare the product, which could be properly or improperly. Possible illness will result either 

from consuming or handling the product. 

After you have ranked each of the 25 products indicating the likelihood of illness, 

then tell us how confident you are about each estimate in the next column. If you are very 

confident given your knowledge and experience, place a “3” in the cell corresponding to the 

estimate. If you are moderately confident, enter a “2.” If you have little confidence in your 

estimate for a particular estimate, perhaps because you have little or no knowledge of or 

experience with illness from a product type, enter a “1” in the cell. 

Finally, enter any comments you have about each ranking in the cells in the final 

column. If you attribute your estimate to a particular pathogen or pathogens, please say 

so. If your estimate is based upon specific knowledge about industrial processing, shipping 

and handling, or consumer preparation of a specific product category, please say so. 

Please complete your scores for all worksheets independently without discussing 

them with the other experts. If you have questions, please contact Shawn Karns at 919-

541-6380 or karns@rti.org. 

A-5 
Worksheet 1. How do you rank the likelihood of illness among healthy adults due to 

consuming or handling each of 25 finished product types? 

1 (You may use fractions) 10

Least Likely to cause illness . . . . . . . . Most likely to cause illness

Finished product type 

Likelihood of 

illness among 

healthy adults 

(1 to 10) 

Confidence 

Level 

1=low 

2=medium 

3=high 

Brief explanation of your score: 

specify bacterial pathogen(s) or 

assumptions made 

Raw intact beef 

Raw intact pork 

Raw intact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw intact chicken 

Raw intact turkey 

Raw intact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw otherwise processed meat 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat 

RTE dried poultry 

RTE salt - cured meat 

RTE salt - cured poultry 

RTE fully - cooked meat 

RTE fully - cooked poultry 

RTE meat fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 

A-6 
Worksheet 2. How do you rank the likelihood of illness among vulnerable consumers due to 

consuming or handling each of 25 finished product types? 

1 (You may use fractions) 10

Least Likely to cause illness . . . . . . . . Most likely to cause illness

Finished product type 

Likelihood of 

illness among 

vulnerable 

consumers 

(1 to 10) 

Confidence 

Level 

1=low 

2=medium 

3=high 

Brief explanation of your score: 

specify bacterial pathogen(s) or 

assumptions made 

Raw intact beef 

Raw intact pork 

Raw intact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw intact chicken 

Raw intact turkey 

Raw intact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw otherwise processed meat 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat 

RTE dried poultry 

RTE salt - cured meat 

RTE salt - cured poultry 

RTE fully - cooked meat 

RTE fully - cooked poultry 

RTE meat fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 

A-7 
Scoring Instructions – Worksheet 3 

This instrument elicits your expert opinion regarding the burden of illness that is 

caused by specific pathogens and that can be attributed to the specific categories of meat 

and poultry products. The estimates you provide through this exercise will be used with 

other existing epidemiological and clinical data to estimate a burden of illness for processed 

meat and poultry products. 

For each of the foodborne pathogens listed below, estimate the percentage of human 

illnesses attributable to consumer handling and consumption of each processed meat and 

poultry product type relative to the total number of illnesses caused by the handling and 

consumption of all processed meat and poultry products in the U.S. 

For example, of all the foodborne illness attributable only to meat and poultry 

products and caused by Salmonella spp. (Non-Typhi), tell us what percentage you estimate 

is attributable to raw intact beef. Each column should add up to 100%. You may attribute 

0% of illnesses to product types. 

At the bottom of each column, please tell us how confident you are about your 

estimates for that pathogen. If you are very confident given your knowledge and 

experience, place a “3” in the cell corresponding to the estimates. If you are moderately 

confident, enter a “2.” If you have little confidence in your estimates, perhaps because you 

have little or no knowledge of or experience with the bacterial pathogen in meat and poultry 

products, enter a “1” in the cell. 

On the page provided after the worksheet, please give any details necessary to 

explain your estimates. If you have research results in mind, please cite them. 

If you have questions, please contact Shawn Karns at 919-541-6380 or 

karns@rti.org. 

A-8 
Worksheet 3. Among the illnesses caused by each pathogen and attributable only to the 

consumption or handling of contaminated processed meat and poultry products, what 

percentage of those is attributable to each specific product type below? 

Finished product type 

Salmonella 

(NonTyphi) 

% 

Salmonella 

(Multi-drug 

Resistant) 

% 

E. coli 

O157:H7 

% 

Listeria 

Monocytogenes 

% 

Campylobacter 

jejuni/coli 

% 

Raw intact beef 

Raw intact pork 

Raw intact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw intact chicken 

Raw intact turkey 

Raw intact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact beef 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact meat – other than beef or pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise nonintact poultry – other than chicken or turkey 

Raw otherwise processed meat 

Raw otherwise processed poultry 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat 

RTE dried poultry 

RTE salt - cured meat 

RTE salt - cured poultry 

RTE fully - cooked meat 

RTE fully - cooked poultry 

RTE meat fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

RTE poultry fully-cooked without subsequent 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile 

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 

Your confidence level in your estimates 

1=low; 2=medium; 3=high 

A-9 
Comments/Citations for Worksheet 3 

Thank you for completing the worksheets! 

A-10
Finished Product Type Examples 

Finished Product Type Product Examples 

Raw intact beef Steaks, roasts 

Raw intact pork Chops, roasts, ribs, loins 

Raw intact meat – other (sheep, goat) Chops, roasts 

Raw intact chicken Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, parts (including 

necks/feet and giblets), boneless/skinless parts 

Raw intact turkey Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, parts (including 

necks/feet and giblets), boneless/skinless parts 

Raw intact poultry – other (ducks, geese, Whole bird not stuffed and stuffed, carcass parts 

squab) 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

intact beef AMR 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

intact pork AMR, MS pork 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated 

intact meat – other (sheep, goat) 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

intact chicken MS chicken 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

intact turkey MS turkey 

Raw ground, comminuted, or otherwise non- Ground, restructured, tenderized/injected/marinated, 

intact poultry – other (ducks, geese, squab) MS Poultry 

Raw otherwise processed meat Batter set nuggets and tenders, char marked patties 

Raw otherwise processed poultry Batter set nuggets and breaded parts, partially cooked 

rolls and loaves 

RTE acidified/fermented meat (without Genoa salami, hard salami, pepperoni 

cooking) 

RTE acidified/fermented poultry (without Turkey pepperoni 

cooking) 

RTE dried meat Dried beef, jerky, landjager, meat sticks, some chorizo 

RTE dried poultry Jerky (basically turkey) 

RTE salt-cured meat Country ham, prosciutto, coppa, capocolla, basturma, 

bresaola 

RTE salt-cured poultry Ducks, geese 

RTE fully-cooked meat Hot dogs, deli meats, roasts 

RTE fully- cooked poultry Whole birds, parts, hot dogs, deli items, roasts 

RTE meat fully-cooked without subsequent Cooked in package (canned ham (not shelf stable), 

exposure to the environment cook-in-bag), hot packed (chili, sauces, soups) 

RTE poultry fully-cooked without subsequent Cooked in package (cook-in-bag), hot packed (soups) 

exposure to the environment 

Thermally processed, commercially sterile Canned meat or poultry products (canned ham, canned 

chicken, chili, sauces, soups) 

AMR = Advanced Meat Recovery. 

MS = Mechanically separated. 

A-11