FSA's Market Share Greatest During 1980's 

Farm Financial Crisis 

.... 100% 

.Q 

~ 90% ~ 

5 80% i. 

~ 

~ 70% 

~ 

60% .... 

~ .... 

"2 50% ~ 

-; 40% ~ 

i. 

= 30% 0 

z 20% 

r.,:; 

~ 10% c,.., 

0 0% 

Q 

~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~OOOOO~yyy 

O~P~~O~P~~O~P~~O~P~~O~P~~O~P~ 

Calendar Year 

• Farm Credit System • Commercial Banks 

• FSA (Direct Loans) • All Other Lenders 

Source: USDA, Economic Research Service, Farm Sector Balance Sheet. 

Figure 1. Market share of US. nonreal estate debt, by lender group, 1960-2016. 
Widespread Regional Variability in the Share of Indebted Farmers 

Receiving FSA Direct Loans 

Share of Indebted Farmars Rec.ivlng DOL (2014-2016) 

CJ Less than 2.5% 

0 2.5%105% 

0 5%to15% 

- 15%to25% 

- Over 25% 

- o 

• 

-\ 

6 , 

Note: Estimated as:: (# of farms receiving DDL loans in COC area/# of indebted farms in COC area as determined by the 2012 Census of 

Agriculture); FSA COC area may include multiple counties. 

Sources: USDA FSA OBFN database; 2012 Census of Agriculture. 

Figure 2. Share of indebted farmers receiving direct OL loans from 2014 - 2016, by FSA county 

office committee area (COC). 
Beef, Cash Grain & Oilseeds Account for the Bulk of 

New Direct OL Obligations 

100 

90 

80 ~ 

~ 70 

g 

.8 60 

3 

~ 50 

I! 

B 40 

0 

~ 30 

20 

10 

0 

200S 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 

Calendar year 

Source: USDA, FSA KCMO OBFN Database and Farm Business Plan 

2016 

• All Other Animal 

• Dairy 

a Beef 

• Other Crop 

• Fruits, Nuts, 

Vegetables 

• Cotton 

• Cash Grains & 

Oilseeds 

• Wheat 

Figure 3. Distribution of borrowers receiving new direct OL loans, by calendar year and 

commodity specialization, 2005-2016. 
18 

16 

14 

~ 12 

u. "' 

110 

QI 

~ 8 

-0 

~ 

0 

Mid-size Family Farms Are Most Dependent on 

FSA Direct and Guaranteed Credit Programs 

Market Penetration (Dec 2015) ___ ~-----~-~· 

By ERS Farm Typology 

• Direct • Guaranteed • Both 

Note: Market penetration defined as: (number of farms with direct or guaranteed FSA loan)/(total number of 

indebted farms). 

Source: FSA GROG & PLAS Data merged with the USDA ARMS. 

Figure 4. Share of indebted farms with an FSA direct or guaranteed loan in 2015, by USDA ERS 

farm typology. 
Commercial Lender Delinquency & FSA Default Rates 

Have Been Increasing 

Delinquency Rates 

for FCS, Bank, and 

FSA Guaranteed Nonreal 

Estate Loans (bars) 

FSA DOL 

Default Rate 

(line) 

6% 

5% 

4% 

3% 

2% 

1% 

0% 

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 

Calendar Year-End 

- Farm Credit System - Commercial Banks - FSA Guaranteed OL (GOL) - FSA DOL 

Sources: Annual Financial Reports of the Farm Credit System Funding Corporation; Kansas City Federal 

Reserve Bank Agricultural Finance Databook; USDA FSA RS40 and GROG databases. 

20% 

18% 

16% 

14% 

12% 

10% 

8% 

6% 

4% 

2% 

0% 

Figure 5. Delinquency rates on nonreal estate loans for FCS, commercial banks, and FSA 

guaranteed loans compared with default rates for FSA direct operating loans, by calendar year 

end. 
Only 7 Percent of Current DOL Borrowers at Term 

Limit on December 31.2016 

Borrower 

Caseload (bars) 

60,000 

% of Total DOL 

Borrowers (line) ~------------------- - - ---------~ 8.0% 

50,000 

40,000 

30,000 

20,000 

10,000 

0 

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 

Calendar Year End 

Term-Limited Borrowers w/Outstanding DOL Loan Balance 

2014 

3"1.66 :-: , 

/ 

4 

2015 

Borrowers w/Outstanding DOL Loan Balance & Remaining Years of Eligibility 

% of DOL Borrowers at Term Limit (Une) 

7.0% 

6.0% 

5.0% 

4.0% 

SCl97 

3.0% 

2.0% 

1.0% 

0.0% 

2016 

Figure 6. Term limited borrowers and total DOL borrowers as of calendar-year end, 2007-2016. 
Borrowers With Annual Gross Revenue Between $100,000 

and $350,000 Account for Over Half of Term-Limited Borrowers 

Percent of DOL Borrowers by Annual 

Gross Revenue 

$350,000to 

$999,999 

16" 

$1Ml.or 

More 

3" 

$100.00011D 

$M9,t91 

44'6 

All Borrowers Receiving New 

DOL Loans (2012-2016) 

USDA FSA Farm Business Plan, OBFN, and PLAS databases 

Under 

$1 Ml. or $50,000 

9" 

$100.00011D 

$M9,911 

si,, 

Term-Limited Borrowers 

w/Outstanding DOL Loan 

Balance in 2016 

Figure 7. The distribution of borrowers reaching term limits who had outstanding DOL loans 

compared with distribution of borrowers receiving new DOL obligations between calendar year 

2012 and 2016. 
-

Borrowers Reaching Term Limits Are Geographically 

Concentrated 

~ -

[I] 0 

. 

Location of Current & Past DOL Borrowers Reaching 

Term Limits Through 12/31/2016 

• Reached Term Limits in 2016 

• All Term Limited Borrowers 

Note: Dots based on approximate geographic location of borrower as determined from borrower's street address or zip code. 

Source: USDA FSA OBFN database 

Figure 8. Approximate location of borrowers reaching term limits through Dec. 31, 2016.