Monthly Labor Review February 2004 3

Concepts and Context

This issue of the Monthly Labor Review

presents the BLS employment outlook for

the period from 2002 to 2012. The 2012

projections continue a longstanding tradition of

BLS examinations of future job prospects dating

back more than 50 years. First begun to assist

returning World War II veterans back into the world

of work, the BLS projections program has grown

steadily from a project that reported simple

descriptive material about available occupations to

an undertaking encompassing a model-based

approach that develops projections of the

macroeconomy, the labor force, industry employment and output, and occupational employment

growth.

The BLS projections are based on a long-term

view of the U.S. economy that assumes a long-run

full-employment economy in which labor markets

clear. As a result, BLS projections address the

question, “How would employment in industries

and occupations grow if the economy were to

operate at its full potential a decade from now?” In

the article “The U.S. economy to 2012: signs of

growth,” which focuses on projected trends in the

macroeconomy, Betty W. Su reports the results of a

macroeconomic model according to which the

overall U.S. economy is expected to grow from $9.4

trillion in 2002 to $12.6 trillion in 2012 (measured in

BLS projections are carried out against a background

of explicit assumptions and model-based findings

that connect the past to the future; the projections

form the basis for providing information on entering

the job market, changing careers, and choosing

appropriate educational and training paths to job success

Michael W. Horrigan is

Assistant

Commissioner, Office

of Occupational

Statistics and

Employment

Projections, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

E-mail:

Employment projections to 2012:

concepts and context

Employment outlook, 2002–12

Michael W. Horrigan chain-weighted 1996 dollars). This increase represents a growth rate of 3.0 percent per year in the

real gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy.

On the basis of the results from the macroeconomic

model, the unemployment rate in 2012 is projected

to be 5.2 percent and the annual rate of growth of

productivity is expected to be 2.1 percent. Given

these broad indicators of economic growth, the

model used to describe macroeconomic activity

provides detailed projections of four categories of

expenditures: personal consumption, investment,

government, and foreign trade. These projections

are necessary as input to the industry projections

that, in turn, form the basis of the occupational

projections.

Another major factor to consider in projecting

the path of the U.S. economy is the available labor

supply over the next decade. In the article “Labor

force projections to 2012: the graying of the U.S.

workforce,” Mitra Toossi uses Census Bureau

population projections based on the 2000 census,

along with historical trends in labor participation

rates, to project labor force levels and participation

rates for 136 age, sex, and race or ethnicity groups

over the 2002–12 period. Overall, the Bureau of

Labor Statistics expects the labor force to grow from

144.9 million in 2002 to 162.3 million in 2012, an

Horrigan_M@bls.gov annual growth rate of approximately 1.1 percent.
4 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

The third major area of analysis translates the growth in the

macroeconomy into the levels of final market output of each

industry and the levels of intermediate inputs that are

purchased by each industry to produce that output. In the

article “Industry output and employment projections to 2012,”

Jay M. Berman reports that the flow of goods and services

purchased in the production process or delivered to the

market as final products will reach a total of $23.2 trillion in

chain-weighted 1996 dollars) in 2012. The number of jobs

needed to support this level of economic activity is expected

to grow from 144.0 million to 165.3 million. The 2002–12

projections present detailed industry flows of inputs and

outputs, using the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS). This is the first set of BLS employment projections developed from the NAICS; past projections utilized the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification

System (SIC). The 2004–2005 BLSCareer Guide to Industries,

a companion publication to the BLS projections, offers a

detailed description of NAICS-based industries and the impact

the changeover will have on industry and occupational

employment over the 2002–12 period.

On the basis of the description of industry production and

total employment needs reported in the three articles, data

from the Occupational Employment Survey (OES) are used to

project the occupational staffing patterns needed in each

industry. The OES gives detailed occupational employment

information on each of the NAICS-based industries. These

data are coupled with expert assessment of likely trends to

produce employment projections for 725 detailed occupations. In the article “Occupational employment projections to

2012,” Dan Hecker reports the results of the BLS analysis of the

projected trends in the occupational employment that produces

the goods and services of the U.S. economy. The occupational

information provided in this article includes estimates of selfemployment that are based on data from the Current Population

Survey (CPS). Total employment is projected to increase by 14.8

percent, reflecting a net employment growth of 21.3 million jobs

over the 2002–12 period. The number of job openings due to

both net employment growth and net replacement needs is

projected to be 56.3 million.1

 Self-employment is projected to

decline 2.3 percent, from 11.5 million to 11.2 million. A separate

companion publication, the 2004–2005 BLS Occupational

Outlook Handbook, gives a detailed description of more than

300 occupations; the book is widely used by students and

jobseekers to obtain career advice.

Together, the four articles presented in this issue of the Review

offer a wealth of detail on projected trends in the macroeconomy,

the labor force, industry output and employment, and occupational employment growth. The purpose of this overview is to

present some of the most significant findings that emerge from

the articles and to provide an overall context from which to view

them. Accordingly, the sections that follow examine the potential

impact of baby-boomer retirements, occupational labor

shortages, immigration, and high-paying, fast-growing occupations on the economy over the 2002–12 period.

Any attempt to project the direction and path of the U.S.

economy and, in particular, long- run occupational employment

needs, is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The BLS approach is

to state the underlying assumptions clearly and present the modelbased findings about the long-run position of the economy in as

transparent and objective a manner as possible. The Bureau has an

ongoing tradition of evaluating its estimates against the actual

state of the economy in the end year of the projections. Waiting

10 years to judge the accuracy of the projections, however, belies

the more pressing need to assess the reasonableness of the BLS

description of the likely secular long-run trends in the economy and

their implications for occupational employment trends. The next

section examines this subject.

A comparison of macroeconomic trends

One standard for assessing the reasonableness of the BLS

description of the long-run position of the U.S. economy is to

compare how the description of the next 10 years stands with

respect to the past behavior of the economy on the basis of a

broad set of macroeconomic indicators. Toward that end, the

following tabulation, based on data from the Bureau of Economic

Analysis, compares peak quarters, about 10 years apart, of U.S.

business cycles in the post-World War II era (the last period

listed, 2000–12, based on annual data, represents a comparison

between the last full year of the 1991–2001 expansion with the

ending year of the BLS projections—which, as noted earlier,

represents a level of economic activity associated with the

economy operating at its full potential):

 Annual average

 growth rate

 of real GDP

 (percent)

1960, quarter II, to 1969, quarter IV ....................... 4.4

1969, quarter IV, to 1980, quarter I ......................... 3.3

1980, quarter I, to 1990, quarter III......................... 2.9

1990, quarter III, to 2001, quarter I......................... 3.1

2000 through 2012 ................................................. 2.7

The expansion of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably

since the 1960s, from an annual rate of 4.4 percent between 1960

and 1969 to around 3 percent per year since 1980. Based on the

BLS projection of GDP for 2012, the projected growth rate of

2.7 percent over the 2000–12 period is in line with the rate

exhibited during the last two decades. (This growth rate,

which covers the 2000–12 period, including the 2001

recession, is slightly lower than the 3.0-percent growth rate

posted over the 2002–12 projection period; the box on the

next page compares the 2000–10 and 2002–12 BLS projections.)

Years spanned
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 5

Productivity trends since 1995. One of the most fascinating

and significant features of the current U.S. economy is the

strength of both labor and multifactor productivity since 1995.

Chart 1 shows the annual rate of growth of labor productivity

between selected peak quarters of the U.S. economy. Included

for comparison are the periods from 1990, quarter III, to 1995,

quarter I, and from 1995, quarter I, to 2001, quarter I, the latter

period being one of exceptional strength in productivity that

has continued to this day. Between quarter III of 1990 and

quarter I of 1995, labor productivity grew at an annual average

rate of 1.5 percent, compared with an annual average growth

rate of 2.3 percent between quarter I of 1995 and quarter I of

2001. Over the 2002–12 period, the Bureau projects an annual

average growth rate of output per hour of 2.1 percent, just

slightly lower than the rate of the 1995–2001 period.

Perhaps even more telling was the strength of labor productivity during the most recent recession. Chart 2 shows the

annual average rate of labor productivity during each of the

recessions since 1960. The strength of productivity that

began in 1995 continued unabated during the most recent

recession, setting the stage for continued strong growth in

productivity over the 2002–12 period.

Industry trends

Output and employment by industry. Trends in overall labor

productivity, while important, still tell only one part of the

story. How these trends are reflected in the growth in output

by industry and, in particular, between goods-producing and

service-providing industries, affords an important insight into

the sources of overall employment growth in the BLS projections. Table 1 compares goods-producing and serviceproviding sectors for the year 2002, based on the proportions

of total output and total employment accounted for by each

sector.

The measure of output reported in the table is nominal gross

duplicated output, which includes output produced for

intermediate sale to other firms and final output delivered to

markets.2 Nominal gross duplicated output has the closest

connection to the amount of labor that industries will need to

hire to achieve production goals, whether such output is for

intermediate sale to another firm or for sale as a final market

good.

As the table indicates, the goods-producing sector’s share of

gross duplicated output is substantially higher than its share of

total nonfarm wage and salary employment, especially for

manufacturing industries. In contrast, the service-providing

sector’s share of gross duplicated output, 67.1 percent, is smaller

than its 82.0-percent share of employment. Two notable

exceptions are the information and financial activities sectors,

which both account for a larger share of output than employment.3

Given these differences between goods-producing and

service-providing industries, it is not surprising that the

Since the publication of the Bureau’s most recent set of

projections, covering the 2000–10 period, the U.S. economy

entered a recession in March 2001 and has been in recovery

since December of the same year. One of the hallmark

features of the recovery period from December 2001 to

August 2003 was the continued net employment losses after

the official end of the recession. The term job-loss recovery

has been used to describe that aspect of the economy

whereby significant output gains and strong labor productivity occurred together with continued contraction in

employment. The juxtaposition of the BLS long-run projections, which assume an economy operating at capacity,

with this most recent experience in job losses is striking—

enough to ask, “To what extent are the current projections

influenced by the events of the last recession and the

current recovery?”

While the model presented in the text projects a secular

trend instead of pinpointing cyclical downturns or upturns,

the trend is certainly affected to a degree by the current

position of the economy. The long-run-growth trajectory

of an economy that is in its ninth year of recovery or

expansion, as the 2000–10 projections assume, may certainly

look different from the long-run-growth trajectory associated

with an economy in its first year of recovery, as the 2002–12

projections presuppose. But how much different? The growth

rate projected for GDP for the 2000–10 period was 3.4 percent

per year, compared with the 3.0 percent projected for the 2002–

12 period. The model presented in the text implies a 5.2-percent

long-run unemployment rate in the current projections, higher

than the 4.0 percent postulated in the previous set of projections. Labor productivity is also somewhat lower, at 2.1

percent for the 2002–12 projections, compared with the 2.4-

percent annual growth rate assumed in the 2000–10

projections. Although a more detailed comparison will reveal

other differences, in general, the long-run growth trajectory

in the current set of projections is not quite as strong as in the

previous set, reflecting, to a certain extent, the impact of the

last recession.

Comparing the 2000-10 and 2002–12 projections
6 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

Chart 1. Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, selected peak-to-peak 

 and other comparisons

Percent Percent

1960, 

quarter II– 

1969, 

quarter IV

1969, 

quarter IV– 

1980, 

quarter I

1980, 

quarter I– 

1990, 

quarter III

1990, 

quarter III– 

2001, 

quarter I

1990, 

quarter III– 

1995, 

quarter I

1995, 

quarter I– 

2001, 

quarter I

2002–12

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Chart 2. Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, selected peak-to-trough 

 comparisons

Percent Percent

1960, 

quarter II– 

1961, 

quarter I

1969, 

quarter IV– 

1970, 

quarter IV

1973, 

quarter IV– 

1975, 

quarter I

1980, 

quarter I– 

1980, 

quarter III

1981, 

quarter III– 

1982, 

quarter IV

1990, 

quarter III– 

1991, 

quarter I

2001, 

quarter I– 

2001, 

quarter IV
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 7

Bureau projects that net change in nonfarm wage and salary

employment over the 2002–12 period will be largely in the

service-providing industries: 20.8 million (96.3 percent) out of

a projected net employment gain of 21.6 million. Nor should it

be surprising that goods-producing industries account for

22.8 percent of the projected increase in output, measured on

a nominal gross duplicated basis, and only 3.7 percent of the

net employment change over the same period. (See table 2.)

Do these figures mean that there will be very few job

opportunities in goods-producing industries? Not at all. The

reason is that the BLS projections are based on net employment

change and do not reflect the underlying dynamic flows of

hirings and separations that occur within industries. How

much turnover is there by industry? The Bureau now

calculates job turnover statistics by industry in its new Job

Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). Table 3 shows the

breakdown of turnover by major NAICS industry group in

September 2003, the latest month for which data were available at

the time this article was written. In the private sector, 4.2 million

individuals were hired during September 2003, representing 3.8

percent of private nonfarm payroll employment that month. Also,

4 million workers were separated from their jobs during September,

accounting for 3.7 percent of employment. An examination of the

industries listed in table 3 shows how dynamic U.S. labor markets

are across industries.

Another measure of the dynamic nature of labor markets is

the number of job openings that are created to replace workers

who leave occupations. Hecker lists the number of job openings for each detailed occupation over the 2002–12 period, a

figure that represents the hiring required both to meet net

employment growth and to replace workers who leave each

occupation.4

 As noted previously, the Bureau projects an

overall level of job openings of 56.3 million jobs over the

period, representing a net employment growth of 21.3 million

and an additional 35 million job openings due to replacement

needs.

While a principal and highly popular use of BLS projections is

to offer guidance on which occupations are projected to grow

the fastest or add the most jobs, the projected trends are closely

tied to the underlying changes in industry output and

employment levels. An industry that is projected to have a

significant increase in the level or the rate of growth of its output

can have a significant impact on the types of occupations that

will be in demand over the next decade. One reason for this

relationship has to do with the concentrations of particular

occupations in specific industries. For example, 49 percent of

registered nurses work in hospitals, and another 17 percent work

in offices of physicians and in ambulatory health-care centers,

including home health-care centers. The projected increases of

27 percent and 57 percent in the real output of hospitals and

ambulatory health-care services, respectively, translates into 71

percent of the nearly 623,000 total projected increase in the

employment of registered nurses.

Another important influence of industries on the occupational

staffing mix results from changes in the technology of production—which can have significant impacts on the types of

Output1 and nonfarm wage and salary employment by major industry division, 20022

Levels Shares

Output Output Employment

 Total ................................................................................. $18,409.6 131,063 100.0 100.0

Goods producing, excluding agriculture ............................... 4,904.5 22,550 26.6 17.2

Mining ................................................................................. 158.8 512 .9 .4

Construction ....................................................................... 865.5 6,732 4.7 5.1

Manufacturing ..................................................................... 3,880.3 15,307 21.1 11.7

Service providing .................................................................. 12,352.2 108,513 67.1 82.8

Utilities ............................................................................... 302.4 600 1.6 .5

Wholesale trade ................................................................. 951.0 5,641 5.2 4.3

Retail trade ......................................................................... 1,064.9 15,047 5.8 11.5

Transportation and warehousing ........................................ 685.4 4,205 3.7 3.2

Information ......................................................................... 965.3 3,420 5.2 2.6

Financial activities ............................................................. 2,497.9 7,843 13.6 6.0

Professional and business services ................................. 2,089.2 16,010 11.3 12.2

Education and health services .......................................... 1,289.7 16,184 7.0 12.3

Leisure and hospitality ...................................................... 687.9 11,969 3.7 9.1

Other services ................................................................... 444.1 6,105 2.4 4.7

Federal Government ........................................................... 376.4 2,767 2.0 2.1

State and local government ............................................... 998.0 18,722 5.4 14.3

Table 1.

Industry

1Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.

2 Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the exclusion of

agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries, as well as special

industries and a residual category.

Employment

 (thousands)
8 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

workers employed as new production technologies are adopted.

In 1983, for example, the production of computer and office

equipment required the services of nearly 100,000 precision

production, craft, and repair workers and 7,000 computer

engineers, scientists, and systems analysts. By 1998, as innovations in the production of computer and office equipment

were introduced into this industry, the number of production

workers had dropped to 68,000, and employment in computerrelated occupations had grown to more than 51,000.

A number of other factors related to industry output and

employment can have an important influence on the occupational

staffing patterns observed in the U.S. economy: the discovery

of new technologies and their integration into the production

process; the influence of global competition; the different emphases

placed by industries on research and development, marketing,

and output customization; and the outsourcing of functions to

firms in other domestic industries or abroad, among others.

Fast employment growth, high output growth

With the aforementioned multiple factors affecting industry

output, are there ways of summarizing the likely impact of industry trends on occupational employment? One approach is to

group industries on the basis of selected characteristics and

examine the employment growth (or decline) that is projected for

those industries over the next decade. Berman lists (1) the

industries that are projected to have the fastest-growing and

most rapidly decining employment growth,5

 (2) the industries

with the fastest-growing and most rapidly decining output

growth,6 (3) the industries with the largest employment growth

and declines,7 and (4) the industries with the largest output

growth and declines.8 Another grouping that provides insight

into employment and occupational staffing patterns is the set of

industries that are projected to post relatively high rates of

growth in both output and employment. Table 4 lists industries

that are projected to have employment increases greater than

14.8 percent (the overall increase in employment projected for

the 2002–12 period). The industries are listed in descending order

of their projected output growth over the 2002–12 period.

The first row of the table shows that the Internet services,

data processing, and other information services industry is

projected to have the highest annual rate of change of real output

over the projection period: 10.3 percent per year. This industry is

expected to add 244,000 jobs, an increase of 46.2 percent, over

the period. Twenty-one industries are projected to have real

output growth rates that equal or exceed the overall annual

average of 4.0 percent. The last two columns indicate that these

industries together accounted for 14 percent of nonfarm wage

and salary employment in 2002 and are projected to account for

32 percent of overall net employment growth over the projection

period.

If the list of industries with fast employment growth is

extended to include those with average annual output growth of

3 percent or more per year, 35 industries qualify. These industries

Output1 and nonfarm wage and salary employment by major industry division, 2002 and 20122

Output Output Output Employment

 Total ................................................................... $18,409.6 131,063 $31,599.4 152,690 100.0 100.0

Goods producing, excluding agriculture .................. 4,904.5 22,550 7,917.6 23,346 22.8 3.7

Mining .................................................................... 158.8 512 208.0 451 .4 –.3

Construction .......................................................... 865.5 6,732 1,204.9 7,745 2.6 4.7

Manufacturing ........................................................ 3,880.3 15,307 6,504.7 15,149 19.9 –.7

Service providing ..................................................... 12,352.2 108,513 22,360.8 129,344 75.9 96.3

Utilities .................................................................. 302.4 600 460.0 565 1.2 –.2

Wholesale trade .................................................... 951.0 5,641 1,898.2 6,279 7.2 3.0

Retail trade ............................................................ 1,064.9 15,047 1,993.9 17,129 7.0 9.6

Transportation and warehousing ........................... 685.4 4,205 1,183.3 5,120 3.8 4.2

Information ............................................................ 965.3 3,420 1,981.0 4,052 7.7 2.9

Financial activities ................................................ 2,497.9 7,843 4,315.4 8,806 13.8 4.5

Professional and business services .................... 2,034.6 16,010 4,136.8 20,876 15.3 22.5

Education and health services ............................. 1,289.7 16,184 2,455.0 21,329 8.8 23.8

Leisure and hospitality ......................................... 687.9 11,969 1,160.8 14,104 3.6 9.9

Other services ...................................................... 444.1 6,105 739.7 7,065 2.2 4.4

Federal Government .............................................. 376.4 2,767 542.9 2,779 1.3 .1

State and local government .................................. 998.0 18,722 1,493.7 21,240 3.8 11.6

Table 2.

Industry

2002 Levels 2012 Levels Share of change between

 2002 and 2012

1Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.

2 Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the exclusion of

agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries, as well as special

industries and a residual category.

Employment

 (thousands)

Employment

 (thousands)
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 9

account for 24 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employment

in 2002 and 48 percent of their net employment growth over the

2002–12 period. Note that not all 35 industries are in the serviceproviding sector of the economy. Although goods-producing

industries generally have greater output than employment gains,

the list of 35 industries includes metalworking machinery

manufacturing industries; forging and stamping industries;

plastics product manufacturing industries; and architectural and

structural metals manufacturing industries.

The 50 industries with average annual output growth of 2

percent or more per year and employment growth exceeding 14.8

percent account for 65 percent of nonfarm wage and salary

growth over the projection period. Further, a total of 84 percent

of employment growth is accounted for by all of the industries

with projected net employment growth exceeding the overall

average of 14.8 percent. This total of 58 industries accounted for

55 percent of employment in 2002, and each has a projected

annual average growth rate of real output of at least 1 percent

between 2002 and 2012.

Trends in labor supply

One of the most significant influences on both labor force growth

and labor force participation rates in the last 50 years has been

the aging of the baby-boom cohort. Indeed, one of the recurring

themes that run through the four articles in this issue of the

Review is the influence of the baby-boom generation on

everything from consumer expenditures to housing, medical care,

and retirement, to name just a few factors.

The baby boomers were born between 1946 and 1964, were

aged 38 through 56 in 2002, and will be aged 48 through 66 in

2012. In table 5, boldface is used to denote when the baby

boomers reached (or will reach) various age groups between

1950 and 2010. One way to see the impact of this cohort is to

compare the size of an age group before the arrival of the

baby boomers with its size once the baby boomers have

reached the indicated ages. For example, in 1970, the baby

boomers were aged 6 to 24 years, and in that year, there were

48 million individuals aged 25 to 44. Twenty years later, with

the baby boomers aged 26 to 44, the number of individuals in

the 25–44 age group stood at 80.8 million, an increase of 68.3

percent.

Perhaps the aspect of the baby boomers that is generating

the most interest at present is their potential impact on the

remaining size of the labor supply as the boomers enter older

age groups and begin to retire. According to Census Bureau

population projections given in the table, by 2010, when baby

boomers will be 46 to 64 years, the number of 55- to 64-yearolds will grow by more than 11 million compared with the

number in 2000, an increase of 46 percent.

Annual average hiring rates and levels, and separations rates and levels, by industry, September 2003

Hiring rate

 Total ............................................................................... 3.5 4,575 3.3 4,320

Total private ........................................................................... 3.8 4,177 3.7 4,002

Natural resources and mining ............................................... 2.4 14 3.2 18

Construction .......................................................................... 5.7 403 6.3 446

Manufacturing ........................................................................ 2.4 353 2.3 342

Durable goods .................................................................... 2.4 218 2.2 200

Nondurable goods .............................................................. 2.4 136 2.5 142

Trade, transportation, and utilities ........................................ 4.0 1,012 3.4 860

Wholesale trade ................................................................. 3.0 164 2.6 145

Retail trade ......................................................................... 4.6 680 4.1 605

Transportation, warehousing, and utilities ......................... 3.5 168 2.3 109

Information ............................................................................ 1.9 61 2.0 66

Financial activities ................................................................ 2.4 194 2.5 197

Finance and insurance ....................................................... 2.1 122 1.9 113

Real estate and rental and leasing .................................... 3.5 73 4.0 83

Professional and business services .................................... 3.9 627 3.4 551

Education and health services ............................................. 3.6 591 2.7 437

Educational services .......................................................... 4.6 122 1.9 49

Health care and social assistance .................................... 3.4 469 2.8 387

Leisure and hospitality .......................................................... 5.9 725 7.2 888

Arts, entertainment, and recreation .................................. 4.6 84 11.6 211

Accommodation and food services ................................... 6.1 641 6.5 677

Other services ...................................................................... 3.7 197 3.8 199

Government ........................................................................... 1.9 399 1.5 318

Federal ............................................................................... 1.4 38 1.4 38

State and local ................................................................... 2.0 361 1.5 280

SOURCE: Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Table 3.

Industry Separation

 rate

Separation

 level

(thousands)

Hiring level

 (thousands)
10 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

One question that naturally arises is whether the baby

boomers have had a discernible impact on labor force participation rates. That is to say, as the baby boomers have

aged, have their labor force participation rates differed

significantly from the cohorts that came before them or the

cohorts that followed them? Table 6 provides the answer. For

men, the dominant feature is the declining participation rates

among those aged 55 and older since 1950, a group that does

not yet include the baby boomers. From an examination of the

younger age groups listed in the table, it does not appear that

the labor force participation rates of baby boomers differed

significantly from those of similarly aged cohorts that came

before or after.

The table also shows the remarkable rise in the labor force

participation rates for women since 1950, especially among the

prime working-age groups from 25 to 54 years. In each case, the

rising trend predates the arrival of female baby boomers.

Although these women certainly contributed to the trend, the

data do not support the idea that the rising labor force participation rates of women since 1950 were the result of the entry

of the baby-boomer cohorts.

In Toossi’s article on labor force projections, changes in

the labor force levels of various age groups are decomposed

into changes in the size of the population and changes in the

labor force participation rates of each age group. Consistent

with the findings just given, Toossi finds that changes in

labor force levels of each age group are largely the result of

changes in the size of the population in various age groups,

rather than changes in their underlying labor force participation rates.

Labor shortages

There is a growing interest in the potential impact of the

upcoming retirement of baby boomers—specifically, the prospect of a general shortage of workers and its effects on specific

occupational labor markets. Table 7 gives the actual and expected

sizes of the labor force by age group between 1950 and 2050, by

decade, based on previously published research by Toossi.9

The arrival on the economic scene and the subsequent aging of

the baby boomers has had a significant impact on labor force

growth rates. Between 1950 and 2000, the civilian labor force

grew by 79 million, from 62.2 million to 140.9 million, an increase

of 1.6 percent per year. The Bureau projects that, between 2000

and 2010, labor force growth will slow to 1.1 percent per year, and

after the retirement of the baby boomers, between 2010 and 2020,

labor force growth will slow to 0.4 percent per year. Overall, the

civilian labor force is expected to grow by 51 million between

2000 and 2050, a slowdown to a 0.6-percent increase per year.

Will these increases in the size of the labor force be too small

to meet the needs of the U.S. economy? Will there be a general

shortage of workers, so that many of the jobs needed to produce

the level of output demanded by the economy (and by U.S.

trading partners in the form of exports) will go unfilled? To what

extent do the projections account for this possibility? Consider

the latter question first. The BLS projections, as mentioned earlier,

assume a labor market that clears. The Bureau does not base its

estimates of changes in total, industry, or occupational employment on labor markets that have either a shortage or a surplus

of workers. Despite this assumption, numerous analyses have

been produced by researchers in past years using BLS employment projections as a basis for measuring what is believed to be

evidence of a future shortage of workers in the U.S. economy.

One of the most common ways in which BLS numbers are used

to project a “coming shortage” is by asserting that the difference

between the projected labor force level and the projected

employment count represents a shortage of workers. For example, the Bureau projects a labor force of 162.3 million

individuals in 2012. At the same time, the Bureau expects that the

2012 economy will require that 165.3 million jobs be filled. Does

this difference imply a shortage of 3.0 million workers come 2012?

Absolutely not—but if not, then what accounts for the difference? First, BLS projections of occupational employment are

based on the number of jobs that the economy is expected to

require. However, because individuals can and do hold more

than one job, the count of workers will most certainly be less

than the number of jobs. Second, and more technically, the data

the Bureau uses for projecting industry employment are based

on the Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts

payroll jobs at establishments. The data the Bureau uses to

project labor force levels, by contrast, are based on the CPS, a

household survey yielding estimates of the number of

individuals in the labor force. Besides multiple jobholding, then,

there are statistical differences between these two series that

contribute to the difference between the job count and the count

of individual employees in BLS projections.

Essentially, the BLS projections are based on an examination

of the labor required to produce projected levels of output by

industry. How industries manage their human resource requirements is influenced by a great many factors: the available

labor supply (including immigration), the skill levels of

prospective jobseekers, the use of technology in the production

process, the required capital-labor ratio consistent with the

technology used for production, how work is organized, the use

of employees from the personnel supply services industry, the

hiring of self-employed contractors, the use of flextime and

flexiplace, the use of overtime or mandatory shift coverage, and

the hiring of offshore labor in foreign countries, among others.

Although the projections do not attempt to explicitly model these

various possible management options that firms may exercise, a

perspective on their potential importance is certainly necessary

to consider in building any set of projections and, in particular,

detailed descriptions of the outlook for occupations. The next

two subsections examine two areas of growing interest in

assessing the reaction of firms to the available qualified labor
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 11

Industries with relatively fast employment growth,1 ranked by projected annual growth rate of output, 2002–12

Internet services, data processing, and

other information services .......................... 10.3 529 773 244 46.2 0.4 1.1

Computer systems design and related

services ....................................................... 9.0 1,163 1,798 635 54.6 1.3 4.1

Software publishers ........................................ 8.4 256 430 174 67.9 1.5 4.9

Motion picture and sound recording

Industries .................................................... 6.7 387 503 116 30.0 1.8 5.4

Scientific research and development

and other professional, scientific,

and technical services ................................ 5.5 1,026 1,241 215 21.0 2.6 6.4

Other general purpose machinery

manufacturing .............................................. 5.2 288 339 51 17.7 2.8 6.6

Advertising and related services ................... 5.2 442 525 84 18.9 3.1 7.0

Employment services ..................................... 5.1 3,249 5,012 1,764 54.3 5.6 15.2

Metalworking machinery manufacturing ......... 4.9 217 251 34 15.5 5.8 15.3

Religious, grantmaking and giving

services, and social advocacy

organizations ............................................... 4.9 1,944 2,372 428 22.0 7.2 17.3

Ambulatory health care services except

offices of health practitioners .................... 4.6 1,444 2,113 670 46.4 8.4 20.4

Forging and stamping ..................................... 4.5 114 132 18 16.2 8.4 20.5

Amusement, gambling, and recreation

industries ..................................................... 4.2 1,308 1,717 410 31.3 9.4 22.4

Office administrative and facilities support

services ....................................................... 4.2 390 508 117 30.1 9.7 22.9

Securities, commodity contracts, and other

financial investments and related

activities ....................................................... 4.2 801 925 124 15.5 10.3 23.5

Individual, family, community, and vocational

rehabilitation services ................................... 4.1 1,269 1,867 597 47.1 11.3 26.3

Commercial and industrial equipment

(except automotive and electronic) repair

and maintenance ......................................... 4.1 156 185 29 18.7 11.4 26.4

Traveler accommodation ................................. 4.1 1,726 2,019 293 17.0 12.7 27.8

Management, scientific, and technical

consulting services ..................................... 4.1 732 1,137 406 55.4 13.3 29.6

Plastics product manufacturing ..................... 4.1 668 797 128 19.2 13.8 30.2

Child day care services ................................. 4.0 734 1,050 316 43.1 14.4 31.7

Commercial and industrial machinery

and equipment rental and leasing ............... 3.9 102 143 41 39.7 14.5 31.9

Architectural and structural metals

manufacturing .............................................. 3.9 400 478 77 19.3 14.8 32.2

Truck transportation and couriers

and messengers ......................................... 3.8 1,897 2,404 507 26.7 16.2 34.6

Business support and investigation

and security services and support

services, n.e.c.2 ......................................... 3.7 1,772 2,261 489 27.6 17.6 36.8

 Specialized design services .......................... 3.6 123 161 38 30.8 17.7 37.0

 Offices of health practitioners ....................... 3.5 3,190 4,419 1,229 38.5 20.1 42.7

 Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing ... 3.5 293 361 68 23.2 20.3 43.0

 Other wood product manufacturing ................ 3.4 320 386 67 20.9 20.6 43.3

 Community care facilities for the elderly

 and residential care facilities, n.e.c.2 ....... 3.4 695 1,078 382 55.0 21.1 45.1

 Other personal services ................................. 3.3 219 270 51 23.2 21.3 45.3

 Nondepository credit intermediation and related

 support activities, funds, trust, and

 lessors of nonfinancial intangibles ............... 3.2 1,058 1,253 196 18.5 22.1 46.2

 RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming

 and boarding houses ................................. 3.2 53 62 8 15.5 22.1 46.3

 Services to buildings and dwellings ............... 3.1 1,597 1,980 383 24.0 23.3 48.0

 Waste management and remediation services . 3.0 317 404 87 27.5 23.6 48.4

 Automotive repair and maintenance ............... 2.9 897 1,046 149 16.7 24.2 49.1

 Museums, historical sites, and similar

 institutions .................................................. 2.7 113 136 24 21.2 24.3 49.2

 Consumer goods rental and general rental

 centers ....................................................... 2.7 353 484 131 37.2 24.6 49.8

 Water, sewage, and other systems ............... 2.7 49 71 23 46.4 24.6 49.9

Table 4.

Industry

 Change in

 employment Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment,

2012

(thousands)

Employment,

2002

(thousands)

Growth

rate

of output

per year,

2002–12

Number

(thousands) Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12
12 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

supply: immigration and the outsourcing of the production of

goods and services to establishments based in foreign countries.

The potential role of immigration in increasing the available

supply of labor. Rising trends in immigration levels to the

United States, especially over the last decade, are one source of

labor for occupations in which it may be increasingly difficult to

find qualified workers. The following tabulation shows the levels

and rates of immigration to the Nation, by decade, since 1901, as

compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau:

 Number of immigrants Rate per thousand

 Period entering United States U.S. population

1901–10 ............... 8,795,000 10.4

1911–20 ............... 5,736,000 5.7

1921–30 ............... 4,107,000 3.5

1931–40 ............... 528,000 .4

1941–50 ............... 1,035,000 .7

1951–60 ............... 2,515,000 1.5

1961–70 ............... 3,322,000 1.7

1971–80 ............... 4,493,000 2.1

1981–90 ............... 7,338,000 3.1

1991–98 ............... 7,605,000 3.6

The population projections from the Census Bureau that are

used as the basis for BLS labor force projections include an

estimate of the level of legal immigration to the United States

over the next decade. In its most recent population projections,

the Census Bureau estimates annual immigration levels of 1.1

million from 2000 to 2005, a decline to 900,000 per year from 2006

to 2010, and an increase to 1.3 million annually from 2011 to 2012.

Much uncertainty accompanies any discussion of the role of

immigration in addressing pressures on labor markets to find

qualified workers. Changes in immigration policy, the occupational and educational profiles of new immigrants, and the

regional impacts of where immigrants choose to live are but a few

of the somewhat speculative areas that make assessing this

potential problematic. To the extent that past serves as prologue,

however, the preceding tabulation does suggest that there will

be substantial levels of immigration into the United States over

the next decade.

What kinds of occupations do recent immigrants enter? Using

data from the CPSfor the period 2000–02, table 8 lists occupational

employment distributions for immigrant groups based on the

number of years since their immigration into the Nation, compared

Continued—Industries with relatively fast employment growth,1 ranked by projected annual growth rate of output,

2002–12

Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood

 product manufacturing ............................... 2.6 116 138 21 18.4 24.7 50.0

Scenic and sightseeing transportation

 and support activities for transportation ...... 2.6 553 652 100 18.0 25.1 50.5

 Personal care services .................................. 2.6 523 667 144 27.6 25.5 51.2

 Cement and concrete product

manufacturing .............................................. 2.5 230 278 48 20.9 25.7 51.4

 Hospitals ......................................................... 2.4 4,153 4,785 632 15.2 28.9 54.3

 Food services and drinking places ................ 2.4 8,412 9,749 1,337 15.9 35.3 60.5

 Nursing care and residential mental health

facilities ....................................................... 2.4 2,048 2,607 559 27.3 36.9 63.1

Performing arts companies, promoters,

agents, managers, and independent artists . 2.3 240 277 37 15.5 37.1 63.3

 State and local electric utilities ..................... 2.2 93 108 14 15.2 37.1 63.3

 Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping,

and payroll services .................................... 2.1 867 1,082 215 24.8 37.8 64.3

 Animal slaughtering and processing .............. 2.0 520 601 80 15.4 38.2 64.7

 Cable and other subscription programming

and program distribution ............................... 1.9 221 300 79 35.7 38.4 65.0

 Spectator sports ............................................. 1.9 118 144 26 22.3 38.4 65.2

 Educational services ...................................... 1.8 2,651 3,410 759 28.6 40.5 68.7

 Construction ................................................... 1.7 6,732 7,745 1,014 15.1 45.6 73.4

 State and local government education .......... 1.5 9,876 11,606 1,730 17.5 53.1 81.4

 Civic, social, business, and similar

 organizations .............................................. 1.5 917 1,088 172 18.7 53.8 82.2

 Legal services ................................................ 1.3 1,112 1,330 218 19.6 54.7 83.2

Table 4.

Industry

 Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment,

2012

(thousands)

Employment,

2002

(thousands)

Growth

rate

of output

per year,

2002–12

Number

(thousands) Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total pr ojected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

 Transit and ground passenger transportation ... 1.2 372 488 116 31.3 55.0 83.7

12 projection period.

2 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

1 Fast employment growth is defined as a projected percentage in

employment greater than 14.8 percent, the overall average for the 2002–

Change in

employment
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 13

with the distribution for all U.S. employees. Individuals who have

immigrated within the last 5 years have a greater likelihood than

the overall population of U.S. workers of being in food preparation and serving related occupations, production occupations, and construction trades. They also have a greater

likelihood of being in computer and mathematical occupations.

As the number of years since immigration increases, the

occupational distribution of immigrants begins to broadly

resemble the overall occupational distribution, although immigrants still have a greater likelihood of being in production

and food-related occupations, compared with all U.S. employees.

Ages of baby boomers and the populations of various age groups in the United States, 1950–2010

0–14 15–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65–74 75–84 85 and older

1950 ....... 0–4 40,482,524 22,098,426 23,759,267 21,450,359 17,342,653 13,294,595 8,414,885 3,277,751

1960 ....... 0–14 55,786,173 24,020,004 22,818,310 24,081,352 20,485,439 15,572,317 10,996,842 4,633,486

1970 ....... 6–24 57,900,052 35,441,369 24,907,429 23,087,805 23,219,957 18,589,812 12,435,456 6,119,145

1980 ....... 16–34 51,290,339 42,486,828 37,081,839 25,634,710 22,799,787 21,702,875 15,580,605 7,728,755

1990 ....... 26–44 53,567,871 36,774,327 43,175,932 37,578,903 25,223,086 21,147,923 18,106,558 10,055,108

2000 ....... 36–54 60,253,375 39,183,891 39,891,724 45,148,527 37,677,952 24,274,684 18,390,986 12,361,180

2010 ....... 46–64 59,444,392 42,818,900 38,851,057 39,442,358 44,160,748 35,429,393 21,154,241

Table 5.

Year

Age group Ages

of

baby

boomers

12,775,045

576,901

929,252

1,501,901

2,240,067

2,240,067

4,239,587

5,785,840

The potential role of hiring offshore employees.

10 One of the

areas of increasing interest in U.S. labor markets is the use of

offshore employees as part of the production process for U.S.

firms. Outsourcing work to foreign countries—that is, purchasing services formerly produced in the United States from

establishments in other countries—has been widely cited in recent

months as having a growing impact on U.S. employment. The exact

magnitude of outsourcing is not known, owing to the lack of

specific, systematic data on the use of foreign employment to

produce outsourced goods and services. Outsourcing is a trend

that has been going on for quite some time. The current interest in

it appears to reflect a transition from the importation of goods to the

Ages of baby boomers and labor force participation rates of various age groups in the United States, 1950–2000

16–24 25–34 35–44 45–54 55–64 65 and older

 Total

1950 ........................................... 0–4 0.60 0.64 0.68 0.66 0.57 0.27

1960 ........................................... 0–14 .56 .65 .69 .72 .61 .21

1970 ........................................... 6–24 .60 .70 .73 .74 .62 .17

1980 ........................................... 16–34 .68 .80 .80 .75 .56 .13

1990 ........................................... 36–44 .67 .84 .85 .81 .56 .12

2000 ........................................... 36–54 .66 .85 .85 .83 .59 .13

 Men

1950 ........................................... 0–4 .77 .96 .98 .96 .87 .46

1960 ........................................... 0–14 .72 .98 .98 .96 .87 .33

1970 ........................................... 6–24 .69 .96 .97 .94 .83 .27

1980 ........................................... 16–34 .74 .95 .96 .91 .72 .19

1990 ........................................... 36–44 .72 .94 .94 .91 .68 .16

2000 ........................................... 36–54 .69 .93 .93 .89 .67 .18

 Women

1950 ........................................... 0–4 .44 .34 .39 .38 .27 .10

1960 ........................................... 0–14 .43 .36 .43 .50 .37 .11

1970 ........................................... 6–24 .51 .45 .51 .54 .43 .10

1980 ........................................... 16–34 .62 .66 .66 .60 .41 .08

1990 ........................................... 36–44 .63 .73 .76 .71 .45 .09

2000 ........................................... 36–54 .63 .76 .77 .77 .52 .09

Table 6.

Year Ages of baby

boomers

 Age group

NOTE: Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will reach

the indicated age group.

 SOURCE: U.S. Census Bureau.

NOTE: Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will reach the indicated age group.
14 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

direct purchase of foreign-produced services, a phenomenon that

has expanded with the development of the Internet and its

dissolution of temporal and spatial barriers to the free flow of

services.

What is the potential impact of this transition? Domestic

industries have already outsourced such functions as accounting, marketing, and advertising to other domestic industries that

both specialize in these services and produce them more cheaply.

With outsourcing, a purchase of a service from another industry

replaces all the material and labor inputs that the purchasing

industry previously used internally in order to create that service.

The total output of the industry now buying the service from an

outside source is somewhat lower, reflecting the inherent costefficiency of the industry producing the service. Some of the

purchasing industry’s employment is shifted to the producing

industry, while some is freed up for other jobs in the economy.

The productivity of the remaining employees in the purchasing

industry now appears to be somewhat higher. If the outsourcing

is provided by a foreign establishment, the output of the

purchasing industry is again little affected. The jobs outsourced,

however, are no longer counted in U.S. employment totals, and

because imports are removed in total from the GDP accounts,

GDP is lower.

Foreign outsourcing influences the projections through its

impact on the industry distribution of GDP. As industries import

more foreign services, the trend toward higher importation will

be reflected in the relative declines in the output and employment

of the affected industries over time. Because the Bureau bases

its industry employment projections largely on trend analyses of

detailed establishment-based time series, the effects of the recent

past have been implicitly addressed to the extent that the data

used have already begun to reflect the situation. More explicitly,

expert review of the model-based projections by BLS occupational employment analysts brings to bear subjective, but

current, knowledge of industry employment practices. Studies

of past outsourcing trends and careful detailing of expectations

for continued outsourcing in the future will ensure that foreign

outsourcing is carefully accounted for in future projections

prepared by the Bureau.

Labor shortages by occupation. The fact that BLS projections

are based on the assumption of a labor market in balance does

not mean that employers will not experience significant difficulties

in finding and hiring workers in labor markets for individual

occupations. One bellwether indicator of the relative difficulties

that arise in hiring sufficient supplies of workers in any occupation is whether any trends show a consistent pattern of rising

wages and rising employment, suggesting that the demand for

workers in the occupation in question is increasing faster than

the supply. Such a situation may represent a shortage, which is

theoretically consistent with the persistent existence of vacancies

despite rising wage offers to fill the vacant jobs.11 Alternatively, the

situation may be consistent simply with a market that is

maintaining equilibrium by paying higher wages. In either case,

depending on the degree of mismatch between demand and

supply, especially by geographic area, there may be significant

difficulties in finding workers in particular occupations.

Consider, for example, the employment and wage trends for

registered nurses, an occupation often cited as having a shortage

of workers. Between 1994 and 2000, a period of significant

economic expansion, the net employment of usual full-time

registered nurses increased by 8.9 percent, and their real wages

declined by 0.2 percent, compared with an increase in real weekly

wages of 6.3 percent for U.S. workers as a whole. In contrast,

since 2000, despite the recession, there has been strong growth

in both employment (12.5 percent) and real wages (5.9 percent)

of registered nurses, suggestive of increased recent difficulties

in finding adequate supplies of workers in that occupational

group.

What other evidence can be gathered to develop a profile of

how relatively easy or difficult it has been in recent years to find

and hire registered nurses or, for that matter, workers in any other

occupation—and how might that evidence be used to track similar

difficulties in the future? One potentially important indicator is to

calculate the percentage of an occupation that is in the 55-yearsand-older age range—and, therefore, is theoretically ready to

retire over the next decade. On the basis of 2002 annual averages,

13.4 percent of registered nurses in this country are aged 55 and

older. The national average across all occupations is 13.9 percent.

Table 9 shows the occupations that have at least 20 percent of

their employees aged 55 and older and that are projected to have

net employment increases larger than the overall national average

of 14.8 percent. For these occupations, the table suggests that

hiring, if only for replacement purposes, is going to be fairly

brisk—and the need to expand total employment levels will only

serve to accentuate the hiring challenge.

Actual and projected civilian labor force levels

and growth rates per year, 1950–2050

1950 ............................... 62,208 ... ...

1960 ............................... 69,628 7,420 1.1

1970 ............................... 82,771 13,143 1.7

1980 ............................... 106,940 24,169 2.6

1990 ............................... 125,840 18,900 1.6

2000 ............................... 140,863 15,023 1.1

 Projected

2010 ............................... 157,721 16,858 1.1

2020 ............................... 164,681 6,960 .4

2030 ............................... 170,090 5,409 .3

2040 ............................... 180,517 10,427 .6

2050 ............................... 191,825 11,308 .6

 Summary

1950 ............................... 62,208 ... ...

2000 ............................... 140,863 78,655 1.6

2050 ............................... 191,825 50,962 .6

Year

Change

Level

Number Annual

 growth rate

Table 7.

Actual
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 15

Are there other pieces of evidence? The general problem with

addressing the question whether the U.S. labor market will have

a shortage of workers in specific occupations over the next 10

years is the difficulty of projecting, for each detailed occupation,

the dynamic labor market responses to shortage conditions.

Employers adapt to difficult hiring markets in a variety of ways:

modifying the duties of a job, changing the capital-labor ratio,

imposing mandatory shift coverage, and hiring contract

employees, immigrants, or offshore labor in foreign countries,

among other approaches. Perhaps the best that can be done is to

examine as many of these indicators as possible and develop a

profile of how the labor market is responding to the changes in

each occupation’s relative demand for, and supply of, workers.

High-paying, fast-growing occupations

While it is certainly a challenge to project future labor market

shortages, another question of abiding interest is what guidance

the BLS projections provide with regard to what many refer to as

“hot jobs” in the U.S. economy? In his article on occupational

employment, Hecker discusses the fastest-growing and largestgrowing occupations.12 Table 10 on pages 17–21 of the current

article lists occupations that are expected to grow faster than the

overall average and that are known to be relatively high paying

in the current economy. Table 10 also shows both the cumulative

percentage of 2002 employment and the cumulative percentage

of projected employment growth between 2002 and 2012 that is

accounted for by these fast-growing, high-paying occupations.

The table uses the 2002 Occupational Employment Survey to

identify “high-paying” occupations, defining them as any

occupation whose mean annual earnings are in the top half of

the overall distribution of earnings. Concomitantly, “fastgrowing” occupations are defined as occupations that are

projected to grow faster than 14.8 percent (again, the national

average for all occupations).

A number of interesting aspects of the occupations listed in

table 10 readily present themselves. For one, the list is not the

exclusive domain of the fast-growing health- or computer-related

occupations—although there are obviously a great many such

occupations on the list. For example, a number of management-,

education-, sales-, art-, architecture-, design-, and accountingrelated occupations are listed. Nor does the list exclude occupations in which a significant percentage of employees are not

college graduates. For example, electricians; plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters; structural iron and steel workers;

reinforcing iron and rebar workers; tapers; tile and marble setters;

sheet metal workers; and heating, air-conditioning, and

refrigerator mechanics and installers appear on the list. Overall,

the occupations listed in the table accounted for 31.2 percent of

employment in 2002 and are projected to account for 51 percent

of the expected net gain in employment over the 2002–12 period.

The impact of education and training. As the discussion of

table 10 indicated, there are a number of relatively high-paying,

high-growth occupations in which the most significant source

of education or training usually is not associated with the jobPercentage distribution of occupations by immigration status, 2000–02

Architectural and engineering occupations .................... 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 2.5

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

occupations .................................................................. 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.4 1.6

Business and financial occupations ............................... 3.9 4.1 1.7 2.2 3.3

Community and social service occupations ................... 1.5 1.6 .5 .7 1.0

Computer and mathematical occupations ....................... 2.4 2.2 5.4 3.6 2.6

Construction trades ......................................................... 5.6 5.2 10.7 9.0 6.3

Education, training, and library occupations .................. 5.4 5.8 3.2 2.8 3.5

Extraction workers .......................................................... .1 .1 .0 .1 .0

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations .................... .8 .6 3.1 2.1 1.8

Food preparation and serving related occupations ........ 8.6 7.5 20.4 17.4 12.4

Healthcare practicitioners and technical occupations ... 4.5 4.5 2.3 3.8 4.8

Healthcare support occupations ..................................... 1.9 1.8 1.6 2.5 2.2

Installation, maintenance, and repair workers ............... 3.5 3.5 2.2 2.8 3.2

Legal occupations ........................................................... 1.1 1.2 .3 .3 .7

Life, physical, and social science occupations ............. .9 .9 1.5 1.3 .9

Management occupations ............................................... 10.6 11.2 4.7 4.9 8.6

Office and administrative support occupations ............. 14.7 15.5 7.1 8.6 11.3

Personal care and service occupations ......................... 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.8 3.6

Production occupations .................................................. 7.8 7.0 12.9 13.4 11.8

Protective service occupations ...................................... 1.9 2.1 .8 .9 1.2

Sales and related occupations ....................................... 11.6 11.9 7.7 9.3 10.3

Transportation and material moving occupations ........... 6.2 6.1 7.2 7.3 6.4

SOURCE: Current Population Survey.

Table 8.

Occupation

Did not

immigrate

 Immigrated

1–5 years ago

Immigrated

5–10 years ago

 Immigrated

more than 10

 years ago

All employees
16 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

holder’s having obtained a 4-year college degree. An upcoming

BLS publication lists, for each occupation, the most significant

source of education and training generally required by employers.13 The same publication also gives the percentages of

employees in each occupation that have a high-school degree or

less, some college, or a college degree or higher. These descriptions are intended to provide general guidance, and, as a

reading of the more detailed descriptions of occupations in the

BLS 2004–2005 Occupational Outlook Handbook indicates,

there is often a variety of educational or training pathways

that enable a worker to become skilled in an occupation.

In the last two decades, several important trends in educational attainment have arisen that can have a significant impact

on occupational career choices. One of these trends is that, since

the late 1970s, average premiums paid by the labor markets to

those with higher levels of education have increased. Certainly,

Table 9.

Occupation

Percent distribution of employees

by age group

Employment

(thousands) Change Total job

 openings

due to growth

 and net

replacement

 (thousands)

Percentage of employees and projected net employment change in selected occupations, by age group1

16–24 25–54 55 and older 2002 2012 Number Percent

 All occupations .................................... 14.7 71.4 13.9 144,015 165,319 21,305 14.8 56,305

Bus drivers ............................................... 9.8 45.4 44.8 654 781 106 16.2 249

Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket

takers .................................................... 7.5 60.1 32.4 105 121 16 15.5 76

Loan counselors and officers .................. 4.8 62.8 32.3 255 302 48 18.7 89

Sales representatives, services,

all other ................................................. 4.7 64.0 31.2 577 717 140 24.3 250

Social workers .......................................... 3.5 66.4 30.1 477 604 127 26.7 209

Environmental scientists and

geoscientists ......................................... 4.1 67.8 28.1 101 121 20 20.1 38

Network systems and data

communications analysts ..................... 8.0 64.7 27.3 186 292 106 57.0 128

 Aircraft pilots and flight engineers ........... 2.5 70.8 26.7 100 118 18 17.8 45

Transportation, storage, and distribution

managers ............................................... 5.5 68.0 26.5 111 133 22 19.7 44

Clergy ....................................................... 11.2 62.5 26.3 400 463 62 15.5 144

Television, video, and motion picture

camera operators and editors ............... .3 74.3 25.4 48 56 9 18.7 19

Market and survey researchers ............... 8.4 66.2 25.4 155 193 38 24.7 78

Ambulance drivers and attendants,

except emergency medical

technicians ............................................ 5.8 68.9 25.3 17 22 5 26.7 6

Sales engineers ....................................... 11.7 63.4 24.9 82 98 16 19.9 41

Chief executives ...................................... .6 74.9 24.4 553 645 93 16.7 197

Special education teachers ..................... 5.4 70.9 23.7 433 563 130 30.0 233

Chiropractors ............................................ 2.7 73.8 23.4 49 60 11 23.3 21

Human resources, training, and labor

relations specialists .............................. 3.7 73.3 23.0 474 606 131 27.7 204

Transit and railroad police ........................ 18.0 59.6 22.4 6 7 1 15.9 2

Public relations specialists ...................... 5.5 72.8 21.7 158 210 52 32.9 75

Motor vehicle operators, all other ............ 7.9 71.0 21.1 111 139 28 25.2 44

Personal and home care aides ................ 34.8 44.1 21.0 608 854 246 40.5 343

Public relations managers ........................ 2.8 76.2 21.0 69 85 16 23.4 28

Food preparation and serving related

workers, all other .................................. 13.3 66.2 20.5 117 134 18 15.2 54

Human resources assistants, except

payroll and timekeeping ........................ 9.9 69.8 20.3 174 207 33 19.3 71

there are a number of important factors besides earnings that

help to determine the career choices made by individuals.

However, it is the growing distance, on average, between those

with more education, compared with those with less, that speaks

to a general preference on the part of employers to hire those with

skills associated with higher levels of education. As shown in

table 11, in 2000, on average, full-time wage and salary workers

with a bachelor’s degree or higher had earnings that were

nearly twice those of high school graduates. This finding

holds for both men and women.

Between 1994 and 2000, the supply of male college graduates

increased by more than 20 percent and their real earnings rose by

nearly 5 percent. (See table 11.) This willingness of the market to

absorb and reward such a substantial increase in the labor

 Text continues on p. 22.
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 17

Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average over the

2002–12 projection period1

Physicians and surgeons ............................. $151,153 583,014 696,530 113,516 19.5 0.4 0.5

Chief executives ........................................... 134,960 552,761 645,341 92,579 16.7 .8 1.0

Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers . 122,230 79,158 93,830 14,672 18.5 .8 1.0

Podiatrists ..................................................... 107,430 13,263 15,257 1,994 15.0 .9 1.0

Lawyers ......................................................... 105,890 695,248 813,119 117,872 17.0 1.3 1.6

Optometrists .................................................. 95,440 32,051 37,529 5,478 17.1 1.4 1.6

Athletes and sports competitors .................. 92,540 15,116 18,017 2,901 19.2 1.4 1.6

Computer and information systems

managers .................................................... 90,440 284,415 387,023 102,608 36.1 1.6 2.1

Marketing managers ...................................... 87,170 202,628 245,880 43,252 21.3 1.7 2.3

All other health diagnosing and treating

practitioners ............................................... 86,280 107,336 133,630 26,293 24.5 1.8 2.4

Sales managers ............................................ 86,110 343,046 447,607 104,562 30.5 2.0 2.9

General and operations managers ............... 83,590 2,048,913 2,424,916 376,003 18.4 3.4 4.7

Chiropractors ................................................. 83,440 48,936 60,332 11,396 23.3 3.5 4.8

Financial managers ....................................... 83,080 599,055 708,511 109,456 18.3 3.9 5.3

Actuaries ....................................................... 80,780 15,310 17,587 2,277 14.9 3.9 5.3

Computer and information scientists,

research ..................................................... 80,510 23,244 30,205 6,961 29.9 3.9 5.3

Personal financial advisors ........................... 78,460 126,208 169,856 43,648 34.6 4.0 5.5

Computer software engineers, systems

software ...................................................... 75,840 281,103 408,906 127,803 45.5 4.2 6.1

Pharmacists .................................................. 75,140 230,200 299,387 69,187 30.1 4.4 6.4

Education administrators, elementary

and secondary school ................................ 74,050 216,713 261,540 44,826 20.7 4.5 6.7

Computer software engineers, applications . 73,800 394,076 573,437 179,361 45.5 4.8 7.5

Veterinarians .................................................. 73,720 57,537 71,984 14,447 25.1 4.8 7.6

Education administrators, postsecondary .... 71,630 125,037 157,390 32,353 25.9 4.9 7.7

Human resources managers ......................... 70,960 202,245 241,568 39,323 19.4 5.1 7.9

Management analysts ................................... 70,160 577,421 753,116 175,695 30.4 5.5 8.7

Public relations managers............................. 69,870 69,185 85,408 16,223 23.4 5.5 8.8

Industrial-organizational psychologists ........ 69,670 1,865 2,164 299 16.0 5.5 8.8

Medical and health services managers ........ 69,370 243,574 314,910 71,336 29.3 5.7 9.1

Advertising and promotions managers ......... 69,200 85,245 106,536 21,291 25.0 5.7 9.2

Sales engineers ............................................ 69,200 81,682 97,938 16,256 19.9 5.8 9.3

Agents and business managers of artists,

performers, and athletes ........................... 68,970 15,171 19,392 4,221 27.8 5.8 9.3

Financial analysts ......................................... 67,180 172,122 204,266 32,144 18.7 5.9 9.5

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists .. 66,200 57,807 73,364 15,557 26.9 6.0 9.6

Biochemists and biophysicists ..................... 65,620 16,733 20,560 3,827 22.9 6.0 9.6

Transportation, storage, and distribution

managers .................................................... 65,070 110,929 132,810 21,880 19.7 6.0 9.7

Computer systems analysts ......................... 64,890 468,345 652,691 184,346 39.4 6.4 10.5

Biomedical engineers .................................... 64,420 7,597 9,583 1,986 26.1 6.4 10.6

Physician assistants ..................................... 63,490 63,033 93,827 30,794 48.9 6.4 10.7

Sales representatives, wholesale

and manufacturing, technical

and scientific products .............................. 63,460 398,259 475,252 76,993 19.3 6.7 11.1

Environmental engineers .............................. 63,440 47,114 65,129 18,016 38.2 6.7 11.1

Architects, except landscape and naval ...... 62,530 113,243 132,782 19,538 17.3 6.8 11.2

First-line supervisors/managers of police

and detectives ........................................... 61,650 113,828 131,191 17,363 15.3 6.9 11.3

Producers and directors ............................... 61,500 76,125 90,019 13,894 18.3 6.9 11.4

Network systems and data

communications analysts .......................... 61,390 185,971 292,044 106,073 57.0 7.1 11.9

Atmospheric and space scientists ............... 61,000 7,700 8,944 1,244 16.2 7.1 11.9

Market research analysts ............................. 60,260 134,474 165,927 31,453 23.4 7.2 12.0

Physical therapists ....................................... 60,180 136,854 185,185 48,331 35.3 7.3 12.3

Radiation therapists ...................................... 60,110 13,505 17,774 4,269 31.6 7.3 12.3

Administrative services managers ............... 59,350 320,509 383,973 63,464 19.8 7.5 12.6

Database administrators ............................... 59,080 109,954 158,567 48,613 44.2 7.6 12.8

Hydrologists .................................................. 58,820 7,957 9,628 1,671 21.0 7.6 12.8

Epidemiologists ............................................. 58,190 3,936 5,215 1,279 32.5 7.6 12.8

Commercial pilots .......................................... 58,000 21,073 24,218 3,145 14.9 7.6 12.8

All other computer specialists ...................... 57,960 191,639 261,647 70,009 36.5 7.7 13.2

Dental hygienists .......................................... 57,790 147,961 211,701 63,740 43.1 7.8 13.5

Table 10.

Industry

Change Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment

Annual

average

earnings2 Number Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

2002 2012
18 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average

over the 2002–12 projection period1

Network and computer systems

administrators ............................................ $57,620 251,375 345,273 93,899 37.4 8.0 13.9

First-line supervisors/managers of fire

fighting and prevention workers ................ 56,750 62,602 74,299 11,698 18.7 8.0 14.0

Clinical, counseling, and school

psychologists .............................................. 56,540 137,248 170,782 33,534 24.4 8.1 14.1

Microbiologists .............................................. 55,700 16,454 19,737 3,283 20.0 8.2 14.1

All other life scientists .................................. 55,270 25,965 30,710 4,745 18.3 8.2 14.2

Postsecondary teachers ............................... 54,960 1,581,247 2,183,986 602,739 38.1 9.3 17.0

All other business operations specialists .... 54,340 1,055,663 1,346,043 290,380 27.5 10.0 18.3

Geographers .................................................. 54,290 817 977 160 19.5 10.0 18.3

Elevator installers and repairers ................... 53,540 21,012 24,603 3,591 17.1 10.0 18.4

Orthotists and prosthetists ........................... 53,410 4,631 5,505 874 18.9 10.0 18.4

Technical writers ............................................ 53,310 49,584 63,030 13,446 27.1 10.1 18.4

Accountants and auditors ............................. 53,230 1,055,217 1,260,676 205,459 19.5 10.8 19.4

Occupational therapists ................................ 53,040 81,624 110,366 28,742 35.2 10.8 19.5

Detectives and criminal investigators .......... 52,960 93,667 114,674 21,006 22.4 10.9 19.6

Nuclear medicine technologists .................... 52,260 17,142 21,193 4,051 23.6 10.9 19.6

Loan officers ................................................. 52,160 223,469 265,540 42,071 18.8 11.1 19.8

Landscape architects ................................... 52,050 23,135 28,270 5,136 22.2 11.1 19.9

Audiologists ................................................... 51,840 10,929 14,098 3,170 29.0 11.1 19.9

All other financial specialists ........................ 51,550 161,978 190,476 28,498 17.6 11.2 20.0

Speech-language pathologists ...................... 51,490 94,319 119,964 25,645 27.2 11.3 20.1

Cost estimators ............................................. 51,310 188,044 223,007 34,963 18.6 11.4 20.3

Sales representatives, wholesale

and manufacturing, except technical

and scientific products .............................. 51,130 1,458,800 1,738,145 279,345 19.1 12.4 21.6

Environmental scientists and specialists,....

including health .......................................... 50,970 65,069 80,476 15,407 23.7 12.5 21.7

Multi-media artists and animators ................. 50,860 74,826 86,648 11,821 15.8 12.5 21.7

Flight attendants ........................................... 50,460 104,008 120,596 16,588 15.9 12.6 21.8

Writers and authors ....................................... 50,300 138,980 161,316 22,336 16.1 12.7 21.9

First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics,

 installers, and repairers ............................ 50,030 443,985 512,275 68,290 15.4 13.0 22.2

Registered nurses ......................................... 49,840 2,284,459 2,907,614 623,156 27.3 14.6 25.2

Diagnostic medical sonographers ................. 49,710 36,508 45,281 8,774 24.0 14.6 25.2

Credit analysts .............................................. 49,530 65,934 78,282 12,349 18.7 14.7 25.3

Instructional coordinators ............................. 49,510 98,454 123,472 25,018 25.4 14.7 25.4

Musicians and singers .................................. 48,240 161,154 188,649 27,495 17.1 14.8 25.5

Compensation, benefits, and job analysis

specialists .................................................. 47,920 90,669 116,074 25,405 28.0 14.9 25.6

Emergency management specialists ............ 47,320 10,948 14,040 3,092 28.2 14.9 25.6

First-line supervisors/managers of correctional

officers ....................................................... 47,000 33,417 39,754 6,336 19.0 14.9 25.7

Social and community service managers ..... 46,900 128,769 164,424 35,654 27.7 15.0 25.8

Public relations specialists ........................... 46,590 158,079 210,133 52,054 32.9 15.1 26.1

Educational, vocational, and school

counselors .................................................. 46,160 228,159 262,295 34,136 15.0 15.3 26.2

Appraisers and assessors of real estate ..... 46,120 88,245 103,796 15,551 17.6 15.3 26.3

Employment, recruitment, and placement

specialists .................................................. 46,050 174,819 222,547 47,728 27.3 15.5 26.5

Secondary school teachers, except special

and vocational education ........................... 46,010 987,503 1,167,231 179,728 18.2 16.2 27.4

Training and development specialists ........... 46,000 208,952 267,248 58,296 27.9 16.3 27.7

Special education teachers .......................... 45,776 432,925 562,698 129,772 30.0 16.6 28.3

Sound engineering technicians ..................... 45,750 12,830 16,097 3,266 25.5 16.6 28.3

Transit and railroad police ............................. 45,750 6,153 7,132 980 15.9 16.6 28.3

Cartographers and photogrammetrists ......... 45,180 8,554 9,846 1,292 15.1 16.6 28.3

Film and video editors ................................... 44,540 19,390 24,507 5,117 26.4 16.6 28.3

Elementary school teachers, except special

education .................................................... 44,080 1,467,155 1,690,357 223,203 15.2 17.7 29.4

Electricians .................................................... 43,910 659,441 813,908 154,467 23.4 18.1 30.1

Interior designers .......................................... 43,770 60,050 73,073 13,023 21.7 18.2 30.2

Fine artists, including painters, sculptors,

and illustrators ........................................... 43,750 23,192 27,028 3,836 16.5 18.2 30.2

Table 10.

Industry

Change Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment

Annual

average

earnings2 Number Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

2002 2012
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 19

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average

over the 2002–12 projection period1

Medical and clinical laboratory technologists .. $43,670 149,952 178,879 28,926 19.3 18.3 30.3

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers ............... 43,390 618,786 771,581 152,795 24.7 18.7 31.0

Forensic science technicians ....................... 43,280 8,390 9,977 1,587 18.9 18.7 31.0

All other media and communication workers 43,120 57,717 67,621 9,903 17.2 18.7 31.1

Actors ............................................................ 42,820 63,033 74,202 11,168 17.7 18.8 31.1

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ........ 42,630 492,126 584,068 91,942 18.7 19.1 31.6

Structural iron and steel workers ................. 42,360 78,060 90,443 12,383 15.9 19.2 31.6

All other sales and related workers .............. 42,350 576,778 717,076 140,298 24.3 19.6 32.3

Computer support specialists ....................... 42,320 506,877 660,309 153,432 30.3 19.9 33.0

Kindergarten teachers, except special

 education .................................................. 42,040 168,461 214,322 45,861 27.2 20.1 33.2

Dietitians and nutritionists ............................ 41,920 48,871 57,550 8,679 17.8 20.1 33.3

Adult literacy, remedial education, and GED

teachers and instructors ........................... 41,470 80,076 96,375 16,299 20.4 20.1 33.3

Graphic designers ......................................... 41,380 211,871 258,250 46,379 21.9 20.3 33.6

Aircraft cargo handling supervisors .............. 41,220 8,916 10,306 1,390 15.6 20.3 33.6

Meeting and convention planners ................. 41,020 36,867 44,713 7,846 21.3 20.3 33.6

Airfield operations specialists ...................... 40,850 6,081 7,127 1,046 17.2 20.3 33.6

Respiratory therapists ................................... 40,700 85,770 115,599 29,829 34.8 20.4 33.7

Reinforcing iron and rebar workers ............... 40,640 28,670 33,445 4,775 16.7 20.4 33.8

Paralegals and legal assistants ................... 40,590 199,626 256,907 57,281 28.7 20.5 34.0

Tapers ............................................................ 40,550 40,763 49,245 8,482 20.8 20.6 34.1

All other entertainers and performers, sports

and related workers ................................... 40,380 56,054 65,220 9,166 16.4 20.6 34.1

Gaming supervisors ...................................... 40,180 38,962 45,066 6,103 15.7 20.6 34.1

Radiologic technologists and technicians .... 40,150 174,112 214,071 39,958 22.9 20.8 34.3

Archivists, curators, and museum

technicians ................................................. 39,750 22,258 26,040 3,782 17.0 20.8 34.3

Telecommunications line installers

and repairers .............................................. 39,560 167,389 198,845 31,456 18.8 20.9 34.5

All other media and communication

equipment workers ..................................... 39,530 24,342 29,243 4,900 20.1 20.9 34.5

Environmental engineering technicians ........ 39,380 19,085 24,496 5,411 28.4 20.9 34.5

Education administrators, preschool

and child care center/program ................... 39,190 57,991 76,544 18,553 32.0 21.0 34.6

Health educators ........................................... 39,190 44,536 54,279 9,743 21.9 21.0 34.7

Medical and public health social workers ..... 38,920 107,194 137,903 30,709 28.6 21.1 34.8

Marriage and family therapists ...................... 38,370 23,495 28,761 5,266 22.4 21.1 34.8

First-line supervisors/managers of protective

service workers, except police, fire, and

corrections ................................................. 38,060 56,314 69,754 13,440 23.9 21.1 34.9

Tile and marble setters ................................. 37,740 33,171 41,960 8,790 26.5 21.1 34.9

Cardiovascular technologists and

technicians ................................................. 37,680 43,390 57,943 14,554 33.5 21.2 35.0

Sheet metal workers ..................................... 37,620 205,016 245,604 40,588 19.8 21.3 35.2

All other vehicle and mobile equipment

mechanics, installers, and repairers ......... 37,580 35,818 41,327 5,509 15.4 21.3 35.2

Fire fighters ................................................... 37,530 281,948 340,402 58,454 20.7 21.5 35.5

Environmental science and protection

technicians, including health ..................... 37,370 27,591 37,738 10,147 36.8 21.6 35.6

Set and exhibit designers ............................. 37,250 12,119 14,652 2,534 20.9 21.6 35.6

Occupational therapist assistants ............... 36,950 18,484 25,725 7,241 39.2 21.6 35.6

All other electrical and electronic equipment

mechanics, installers, and repairers ......... 36,710 21,928 26,229 4,301 19.6 21.6 35.6

Legal secretaries .......................................... 36,580 263,712 313,403 49,691 18.8 21.8 35.9

Audio and video equipment technicians ....... 36,550 41,759 52,927 11,169 26.7 21.8 35.9

All other life, physical, and social science

technicians ................................................. 36,520 137,443 161,500 24,057 17.5 21.9 36.0

Loan counselors ............................................ 36,450 31,106 36,644 5,539 17.8 21.9 36.0

Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration

mechanics and installers ........................... 36,430 248,669 327,731 79,062 31.8 22.1 36.4

Physical therapist assistants ....................... 36,360 50,188 72,580 22,392 44.6 22.1 36.5

Drywall and ceiling tile installers ................... 36,350 135,361 164,373 29,012 21.4 22.2 36.7

First-line supervisors/managers of landscaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping

workers ....................................................... 36,220 149,727 182,142 32,415 21.6 22.3 36.8

Table 10.

Industry

Change Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment

Annual

average

earnings2 Number Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

2002 2012
20 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average

over the 2002–12 projection period1

Clergy ............................................................ $36,080 400,485 462,599 62,114 15.5 22.6 37.1

Athletic trainers ............................................. 36,070 14,283 18,548 4,265 29.9 22.6 37.1

Painters, transportation equipment .............. 35,700 49,999 58,751 8,752 17.5 22.7 37.2

Child, family, and school social workers ...... 35,640 274,455 338,049 63,594 23.2 22.8 37.5

Hazardous materials removal workers .......... 35,610 37,559 53,760 16,201 43.1 22.9 37.5

All other health practitioners and technical

workers ....................................................... 35,530 189,504 241,031 51,528 27.2 23.0 37.8

Audio-visual collections specialists .............. 35,370 9,771 11,361 1,590 16.3 23.0 37.8

All other teachers, primary, secondary,

and adult .................................................... 35,210 679,385 908,116 228,731 33.7 23.5 38.9

Respiratory therapy technicians ................... 34,930 26,421 35,469 9,048 34.2 23.5 38.9

Carpet installers ............................................ 34,920 82,218 96,013 13,795 16.8 23.6 39.0

Interpreters and translators .......................... 34,900 24,111 29,427 5,317 22.1 23.6 39.0

Mental health and substance abuse social

workers ....................................................... 34,860 94,946 127,709 32,763 34.5 23.6 39.1

Computer, automated teller, and office

machine repairers ....................................... 34,810 156,286 179,815 23,529 15.1 23.7 39.3

Glaziers ......................................................... 34,660 48,519 56,859 8,340 17.2 23.8 39.3

Correctional officers and jailers .................... 34,650 427,147 530,522 103,375 24.2 24.1 39.8

Biological technicians ................................... 34,630 47,903 57,181 9,279 19.4 24.1 39.8

Water and liquid waste treatment plant

and system operators ................................ 34,620 99,300 115,180 15,881 16.0 24.2 39.9

Security and fire alarm systems installers ... 34,390 46,303 60,277 13,974 30.2 24.2 40.0

Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer ........ 34,350 1,767,093 2,103,667 336,574 19.0 25.4 41.5

Private detectives and investigators ............ 34,250 48,009 60,160 12,151 25.3 25.5 41.6

Coaches and scouts ..................................... 34,170 129,715 153,492 23,777 18.3 25.6 41.7

Cement masons and concrete finishers ....... 33,800 181,692 229,047 47,355 26.1 25.7 41.9

Choreographers ............................................. 33,790 17,313 20,057 2,744 15.8 25.7 41.9

Desktop publishers ....................................... 33,730 34,994 45,211 10,217 29.2 25.7 42.0

Massage therapists ....................................... 33,720 92,086 116,998 24,912 27.1 25.8 42.1

All other counselors, social, and religious

workers ....................................................... 33,710 247,823 317,863 70,040 28.3 26.0 42.4

Cargo and freight agents .............................. 33,350 59,128 68,286 9,157 15.5 26.0 42.5

Roofers .......................................................... 33,020 166,235 197,094 30,859 18.6 26.1 42.6

Self-enrichment education teachers ............. 32,910 200,365 280,783 80,418 40.1 26.3 43.0

Mental health counselors .............................. 32,800 84,816 107,419 22,604 26.7 26.3 43.1

Lay-out workers, metal and plastic .............. 32,600 12,802 14,793 1,991 15.5 26.3 43.1

Insulation workers ......................................... 32,500 53,466 61,938 8,472 15.8 26.4 43.2

All other library, museum, training, and other

education workers ...................................... 32,490 92,674 115,506 22,832 24.6 26.4 43.3

Directors, religious activities and education 32,330 105,311 130,657 25,346 24.1 26.5 43.4

Licensed practical and licensed vocational

nurses ........................................................ 32,300 701,879 843,658 141,779 20.2 27.0 44.1

Makeup artists, theatrical and performance 32,120 1,627 1,923 296 18.2 27.0 44.1

Mechanical door repairers ............................. 32,080 10,766 13,117 2,351 21.8 27.0 44.1

Chefs and head cooks .................................. 32,000 131,857 152,753 20,896 15.8 27.1 44.2

Surgical technologists ................................... 31,960 72,248 92,423 20,175 27.9 27.1 44.3

Substance abuse and behavioral disorder

counselors .................................................. 31,860 67,148 82,760 15,612 23.3 27.2 44.3

Surveying and mapping technicians ............. 31,760 60,139 74,059 13,920 23.1 27.2 44.4

Tax preparers ................................................. 31,630 79,498 97,924 18,426 23.2 27.3 44.5

Human resources assistants, except payroll

and timekeeping ......................................... 31,530 173,844 207,311 33,467 19.3 27.4 44.6

All other related transportation workers ....... 31,360 40,478 46,609 6,132 15.1 27.4 44.7

Medical appliance technicians ...................... 31,340 13,806 16,031 2,225 16.1 27.4 44.7

Maintenance and repair workers, general ..... 31,010 1,265,585 1,472,372 206,787 16.3 28.3 45.7

Terrazzo workers and finishers ..................... 30,830 6,351 7,318 967 15.2 28.3 45.7

Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers .... 30,820 390,524 456,731 66,206 17.0 28.6 46.0

Bus drivers, transit and intercity .................. 30,810 201,921 232,523 30,602 15.2 28.7 46.1

First-line supervisors/managers

of housekeeping and janitorial workers ..... 30,430 229,910 267,243 37,333 16.2 28.9 46.3

Survey researchers ....................................... 30,360 20,246 27,055 6,809 33.6 28.9 46.3

Medical and clinical laboratory technicians .. 30,330 147,462 176,127 28,665 19.4 29.0 46.5

Motorboat mechanics .................................... 30,310 21,660 25,626 3,966 18.3 29.0 46.5

Locksmiths and safe repairers ..................... 30,250 22,929 27,748 4,819 21.0 29.0 46.5

Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors .... 29,910 182,720 263,947 81,227 44.5 29.2 46.9

Table 10.

Industry

Change Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment

Annual

average

earnings2 Number Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

2002 2012
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 21

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average

over the 2002–12 projection period1

Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe

cleaners ...................................................... $29,750 17,923 21,724 3,801 21.2 29.2 46.9

Segmental pavers ......................................... 29,630 2,170 2,527 357 16.5 29.2 46.9

Motorcycle mechanics .................................. 28,690 15,095 17,916 2,821 18.7 29.2 46.9

Rehabilitation counselors .............................. 28,590 122,239 163,536 41,298 33.8 29.3 47.1

Recreational vehicle service technicians ..... 28,530 12,552 15,287 2,735 21.8 29.3 47.1

Bill and account collectors ........................... 28,330 412,966 513,945 100,979 24.5 29.6 47.6

Coin, vending, and amusement machine

servicers and repairers .............................. 28,250 42,729 49,212 6,483 15.2 29.6 47.6

Customer service representatives ............... 28,240 1,894,053 2,353,786 459,732 24.3 30.9 49.8

Dental assistants .......................................... 27,910 266,025 378,992 112,967 42.5 31.1 50.3

All other air transportation workers .............. 27,910 11,725 13,999 2,274 19.4 31.1 50.3

Opticians, dispensing ................................... 27,830 63,207 74,681 11,474 18.2 31.2 50.4

Medical transcriptionists ............................... 27,730 100,830 123,637 22,807 22.6 31.2 50.5

Table 10.

Industry

Change Cumulative

percentage

of total 2002

employment

Employment

Annual

average

earnings2 Number Percent

 Cumulative

 percentage of

total projected

 employment

 change,

 2002–12

2002 2012

1Relatively high paying is defined as “having average annual earnings that

are in the top two quartiles of the overall distribution of earnings in the 2002

Occupational Employment Survey.” Fast growing is defined as “having a

projected employment change equal to or exceeding 14.8 percent, the overall

average of the projections.”

Employment and average real weekly earnings of usual full-time wage and salary workers, by gender and level of

educational attainment, 1994–2000

1994 2000 1994 2000

Total ........................................... 87,382 99,917 14.3 $697 $724 3.9 128.8

Less than high school ............ 9,373 10,674 13.9 415 409 –1.4 72.8

High school ............................. 29,992 32,213 7.4 556 562 1.1 100.0

Some college, no degree ....... 17,377 19,403 11.7 633 644 1.7 114.6

Associate’s degree, educational 4,027 4,588 13.9 673 673 .0 119.8

Associate’s degree, vocational 3,315 4,189 26.4 705 711 .9 126.5

Bachelor’s degree .................. 15,872 19,534 23.1 938 996 6.2 177.2

Master’s degree or higher ...... 7,427 9,315 25.4 1,270 1,273 .2 226.5

Some college .......................... 24,719 28,181 14.0 649 659 1.5 117.3

Bachelor’s degree or higher ... 23,299 28,849 23.8 1,044 1,085 3.9 193.1

Men ............................................ 49,993 56,273 12.6 787 821 4.3 128.7

Less than high school ............ 6,325 7,010 10.8 453 452 –.2 70.8

High school ............................. 17,052 18,267 7.1 630 638 1.3 100.0

Some college, no degree ....... 9,534 10,539 10.5 724 738 1.9 115.7

Associate’s degree, educational 2,077 2,432 17.1 758 777 2.5 121.8

Associate’s degree, vocational 1,675 1,971 17.7 797 833 4.5 130.6

Bachelor’s degree .................. 8,960 10,757 20.1 1,079 1,146 6.2 179.6

Master’s degree or higher ...... 4,372 5,297 21.2 1,426 1,460 2.4 228.8

Some college .......................... 13,285 14,942 12.5 739 757 2.4 118.7

Bachelor’s degree or higher ... 13,332 16,054 20.4 1,193 1,250 4.8 195.9

Women ....................................... 37,387 43,644 16.7 578 599 3.6 129.4

Less than high school ............ 3,048 3,664 20.2 336 328 –2.4 70.8

High school ............................. 12,940 13,946 7.8 458 463 1.1 100.0

Some college, no degree ....... 7,843 8,865 13.0 523 532 1.7 114.9

Associate’s degree, educational 1,950 2,156 10.6 583 554 –5.0 119.7

Associate’s degree, vocational 1,641 2,219 35.2 611 603 –1.3 130.2

Bachelor’s degree .................. 6,912 8,777 27.0 755 811 7.4 175.2

Master’s degree or higher ...... 3,055 4,018 31.5 1,047 1,026 –2.0 221.6

Some college .......................... 11,434 13,239 15.8 546 548 .4 118.4

Bachelor’s degree or higher ... 9,966 12,795 28.4 845 879 4.0 189.8

SOURCE: Current Population Survey, quarterly sample, annual averages.

Table 11.

Population

Employment

(thousands) Real weekly earnings in 2002 CPI-U dollars Earnings as a

percentage of

average high

school

earnings in

2000

 Percent

 change

 Percent

 change
22 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Concepts and Context

supply of men who have graduated from college is an indicator of

the continued relative increase in the demand for workers with

more education. Earnings of men with some college (including

those with associate’s degrees) increased by 2.4 percent, and the

employment of the group grew by 13 percent. Real earnings of

female college graduates rose by 4 percent, and their employment

increased by nearly 30 percent. Women with some college saw

their real earnings remain steady, while their employment

increased by 16 percent.

THIS ISSUE OF THE MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW PRESENTS

PROJECTIONS of industry and occupational employment

Notes

1

 Total job openings are given by the sum of net employment increases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job

openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net

replacements.

2

 In traditional national income accounting practices, nominal gross

duplicated output (also called double counting) is a measure of duplicated

output, by virtue of the fact that it includes intermediate inputs which

are eventually part of final output. This article uses nominal, rather

than real,1996 chain-weighted gross duplicated output because adding

the outputs of various industries under the latter concept does not yield

total output.

3

 Perhaps nowhere is the contrast more apparent than in the

production of computers compared with the provision of computer

services. The production of computers is a capital-intensive enterprise.

Between 1992 and 2002, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the

computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry fell by 24

percent, from 329,000 to 250,000. Over the same period, output in

the industry grew from $28 billion to $263 billion (in 1996 chainweighted dollars), an increase of more than 24.9 percent per year. In

the computer systems design and related services industry, employment

increased by more than 161 percent, from 445,000 to 1,163,000 over

the 1992–2002 period. Output also increased over the same period, at

an annual rate of 8.8 percent. The Bureau projects a similar trend in

the two industries over the 2002–12 period. (See Jay M. Berman,

“Industry output and employment projections to 2012,” this issue, pp.

58–79, table 3.)

trends. These projections form the basis for providing career

advice to individuals entering the job market, changing careers,

or making further educational and training choices. Although

the Bureau of Labor Statistics must judge its work against an

uncertain future, a hallmark of the agency’s projections is that

the assumptions and model-based findings on which they are

grounded are made explicit. Further, while much is known in terms

of trends in economic series to date, past is not always prologue,

and care must always be taken whenever projections are

involved. With these points in mind, the reader will be better able

to appraise and utilize the carefully thought-out content of the

articles presented in this issue of the Review. 

4

 Daniel E. Hecker, “Occupational employment projections to

2012,” this issue, pp. 80–105.

5 See Berman, “Industry output and employment projections to

 2012,” table 4.

6 Ibid., table 5.

7 Ibid., table 6.

8 Ibid., table 7.

9

 Mitra Toossi, “A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 1950–

2050, Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 15–28.

10 The material in this section was prepared both by the author and

by Norman Saunders, Division of Industry Employment Projections,

Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections.

11 Currently, however, there are no national surveys of occupations

that provide information either on the durations of vacancies or on

wage offers. The BLS Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey

estimates job openings by industry for the entire U.S. economy, and

37 States conduct job vacancy surveys that estimate job openings by

occupation.

12 Hecker, “Occupational employment projections to 2012”; see

especially tables 3 and 4.

13 2004–2005 Occupational Projections and Training Data,

forthcoming.