Table A-4. Working life table for women, 1979-80—Continued

Probability of transition between specified states
during age interval x to x+1

Age-specific sates of transfer per 1,000
persons in initial status during age interval

X10 X41
Living Inactive | Inactive | Active Active Labor Voluntary
Age to to to to to Mortality force labor force
dead ' inactive active inactive active accession ‘separation
aod La a aa inf ani
x Px x Px e* my TM
® 9) 10) amy * (2) 3} (14) (15)
16 0.00048 | 0.61018 | 0.38993 | 0.28459 | 0.71491 0.00050 0.58755 0.42949
7 00055 | 65845 | 34999 | 26841 73104 00056 49076 38629
8 90059 | 64144 | 95797 | 23074 | 76867 00059 50766 82722
19 00060 | 63368 36572 | 20738 | 79202 00060 51297 29088
20 00061 69680 36259 | 18972 | 80967 00061 50129 26230
21 00061 64831 35107 | 17552 | 92387 00062 47689 23842
22 00063 | 66119 | sa8ig { 16608 | 83330 00063 45252 22223
23 00083 67430 | 32506 | 16070 | 83866 00064 42068 21244
24 00065 | 68760 | 31176 | 15478 | 84458 20065 40890 20202
25 00065 | 70209 | 20636 | 15125 | 84810 00065 38210 49501
28 oo0es | 72078 | 27a66 | 14873 85061 00066 35450 18928
2 00087 | 73209 | 26634 | 14524 | 85408 00068 33561 18302
2B 0069 | 74023 | 25907 | 14177 | 85754 00070 32427 17744
29 00071 74635 | 25203 | 19723 | 86208 00072 31449 17063
30 0074 | 75814 24612 | 19210 | 88716 00074 30377 16304
a 00078 | .75892 24030 | .12835 | .87087 00078 20485 15748
32 00082 | 76180 23738 | 12560 | 87358 00083 29028 11559
33 00088 | 76361 29551 12275 | 87637 00089 28718 14868
34 0096 | 76461 23443 11881 88023 00086 28503 14445
35 00104 | 76619 | .2g277 | 11991 88505 00104 28180 13795
36 00113 | 76868 | 23018 | 10946 | -g894t 00114 27761 13201
a7 00124 | 77131 22745 | 10516 | 89360 00124 27320 12631
38 00136 | 77671 22193 | 10185 | 89679 00136 26519 12170
33 00150 | 78183 21668 | 09963 | 89887 00150 25781 11885
40 00164 | 78829 | 21006 | 09588 90248 ootes 24844 11339
41 00181 79888 | .19931 09400 | so419 00181 23403 11087
42 00199 | .80930 | 18870 | .oss4g | 90452 00200 22018 10908
43 oo2ia | 81786 17995 | 09227 | 90554 00219 20879 10708
44 00241 82627 17133 | .08170 80589 00244 19779 10587
45 0264 | 83618 16118 | 09184 90552 00264 18505 10544
6 cozsa | 4626 15085 | 99282 90429 0289 17234 -10603
47 00317 | 85365 14318 | 09341 90342 00318 16294 -10630
48 00348 | 85986 13666 | 09416 | 90236 00349 15506 10684
49 00383 | 86586 18031 03540 | 90077 00383 14749 -10798
50 00420 | 87081 12499 | 09559 | 90021 00421 14411 10783
5t 00460 | 87724 | 11816 | .09571 89960 00461 13296 10769
52 00500 | 88611 -to889 | .09721 89778 00802 12204 -10896
83 00541 89208 | 10161 09886 89574 00542 11358 -11050
54 -oo5e2z | 89906 | .ogst2 | 10214 89204 00584 10618 11402
65 00626 | 90683 | 08691 10767 88607 00628 09692 -12006
56 00675 | 91417 07914 | 41771 87554 00877 08841 18180
87 00732 | 92034 | 07235 | 13001 86268 00734 08112 44577
58 00798 j 92604 | oss | 13999 85203 00801 07817 418739
59 00873 | 93092 | 06034 | 15487 83639 00877 06825 A751?
60 .o09s7 | 93455 | 05588 | 17659 81384 00962 06387 20187
61 01045 | 93696 | .05259 | 19807 79148 01050 06080 22900
62 01135 | 94034 | 04831 21678 | 77187 01141 05638 25298
63 01224 | 94323 | 04452 | 23010 | 75765 01232 05230 27028
64 01316 | 94441 04243 | 24102 | 74582 01325 05015 28486
6s 01414 | 94589 | 03997 | 25100 | 73486 01424 04750 29829
66 01524 | 94766 | 03710 | 26416 72059 01536 04441 31624
67 01653 | 94926 | 03421 27615 70532 01687 04128 33566
68 01807 | 94989 | 03205 | 28106 70088 01823 03876 93990
69 01983 | 94944 | 03073 | 28043 69974 02003 03718 33944
70 02178 | .sag0a | ozats | 2e293 69590 02201 0356 34250
" 02388 | 94821 02791 29093 68520 02416 03409 35533
72 02614 | 94677 | .02708 | 29783 67604 02648 03330 36601
73 02857 | 94515 | 02629 | 29908 67235 02898 03240 36866
74 03121 94350 | .02530 | .29580 67289 03170 03120 36488
75 03441 94430 | 02157 | 34984 61603 03470 02752 44644

* Mortality rates used are those of the general female population.



(L‘,) should be precisely half the sum of those alive at
the beginning and at the end of that interval:

A+ han
2

L

x

The number active or inactive at mid-year can be com-
puted in analagous fashion. (These values by labor force
status appear in columns 24-26 of tables A-1 and A-4).
These figures are also referred to as the number of “‘per-
son years” lived by the group in any status as it passes
through the given age. Summing person years (of life,
inactivity, or activity) from age x to the end of the table,
and dividing the result by total persons alive at exact age
X, we derive average years of life, inactivity, and activity
remaining to be lived by those age x. For example, the

average worklife expectancy is:

oe
a lk
a _ age=Xx

= 7

x x

Labor force status-specific expectations of active life
Cex, 'e&) and inactive life Ce}, 'e,). The expectancy
functions for the population as a whole, above, were
developed using a Markov chain calculation in which a
specific cohort of individuals (i.e., those of a given sex,
and race or educational attainment level, born at the same
time) were traced through a lifetime of labor force
entries and exits to quantify total average work duration.
By the same token, it is possible to follow even more
specific cohorts (e.g., those with a given set of charac-
teristics who were in the labor force at a specific age)
through their subsequent worklife experiences. The pro-
cedure is the same. At each age, survivors of the initial
work status cohort are subjected to the transfer rates
appropriate to their current age and status, to determine
how many will enter the next age interval in each work
status group. The resulting stationary population profile
is translated into person years of activity and inactivity
lived by the group in that age interval. These values are
summed across ages, then averaged over persons of the
relevant sex alive and in a given status at the initial
age.

Given the 2 sexes, 2 labor force statuses, and 60
ages of interest, this entire procedure must be repeated
240 times to develop the expectancy figures shown in
columns 4-7 of tables A-1 and A-4, It must be repeated
another 1,200 times to provide the labor force status-
specific detail by sex and race, and by sex and education,
shown.

The expectancies are denoted *e® (years of activity
remaining to persons currently active), ‘e? (years of
activity remaining to persons currently inactive), and

%U.S. Covernnent Printing Office :

33

agi and jel for years of inactivity remaining for the same
two groups.

Interpretation of worklife expectancy values. These tables
measure movement into and out of the labor force,
rather than flows into and out of employment. Hence
measures of ‘‘worklife’’ actually include periods of
unemployment.

These estimates in no way control for differences in
hours worked by age, sex, race, or educational attain-
ment. They simply summarize the number of years during
which an average cohort member would be attached to
the labor force {in whatever manner is characteristic for
that group) if prevailing rates of mortality and labor force
entry and exit remained in effect throughout his or her

lifetime.

It is possible to quantify the proportion of each year
of life spent in the labor force (controlling for the average
effects of mortality and labor force separation) by com-
puting the following ratio for each age group:

wa lk
xtl& = Ty

x

Where:

x+i& = the worklife expectancy from age x
tox+l.

Modifications of the model. Treatment of the initial and
terminal ages of the table has been modified slightly
since the last publication to improve the precision of
the estimates. Whereas the tables for 1977 recognized
labor force entries to begin during age 15, the present
set also rests on known entry patterns for persons age
14, This has had a very minor impact on worklife
expectancies at birth, and-none at all beyond the early
teens. ‘

For purposes of closure, it is now assumed that no
one enters the labor force after age 75, and that per-
son years of activity beyond that age are proportional
to the labor force participation rate of CPS respond-
ents age 76 to 78. (Given the number of groups being
tabulated, it is no longer feasible to attempt estimation
of actual labor force movements beyond age 75.} This
modification has had a very minor impact on worklife
values.

Additional detail. This publication includes only sum-
mary statistics on worklife expectancy by race and
education. Full tables for various groups are avail-
able upon request from: Division of Data Development
and Users’ Services, Office of Employment and Un-
employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics,
441 G St. NW., Washington, D.C. 20212.

1996 -492-545/46271


Table A-1. Working life table for men, 1979-80—Continued

Probability of transition between specified states
during age interval x to x41

Age-specific rates of transfer per 1,000
Persons in initial status during age interval

xtox+4

Living | Inactive | Inactive | Active Active Labor Voluntary
Age to to to to to Mortality force labor force

dead ' inactive | active | inactive | active accession separation
x “pt ae ‘ga 5 a8 a na, ani

cc) ® (10) ay (12) (13) 44) (18)

16 0.00125 | 0.58927 | 0.41547 | 0.24193 | 0.75682 0.00126 0.61987 0.36085
7 00148 | 61255 | gase7 { 22043 | 7808 00149 55491 81692
18 0016s | 58417 | 4taig | 117233 | 2602 00165 58722 24483
19 00177 55755 | 44068 | 14453 | 85970 00177 62430 20475
20 00189 ssog6 | 45815 | 12094 | 87777 00189 64607 16970
21 00200 52949 | 46851 | 09781 90019 00200 85514 13678
22 oo20s | 51802 | 47901 | os16z | gt692 00207 66891 11876
23 00208 | 50424 | 49369 07061 92731 00208 68945 09861
24 00205 | 49876 | 49919 | 05970 | 93825 00205 69448 08305
25 00202 | 49823 | 49976 | 08036 | 94763 00202 89103 06963
26 00197 | 49443 | 50360 | 04307 | asa95 00197 69466 05942
27 00193 | 49646 | 50161 03856 | 95950 00194 68879 05296
28 00191 | 50542 | 49267 | 03544 | 96265 00191 87094 04827
29 00189 51674 48136 | 03263 | 96557 00190 64926 04388
30 00189 3604 | 46208 | 03072 | 96740 00189 81451 04085
3t 00189 ss614 | 44197 | ‘02880 | -osg22 00189 57933 03787
32 00191 7943 | 41966 | 02643 | 97166 00191 53967 03407
33 00197 60220 | 39584 | 02460 | 97343 00197 50282 03122
34 00204 60975 | 38821 02871 97425 00204 -49003 02993
35 00214 62305 | 37481 | 02390 | 97396 00215 46926 02992
36 00227 | 64356 | 36417 | 02347 | 97426 00227 48772 02901
37 00241 | 66643 | 38115 | 02198 | ‘97561 90242 40324 02676
38 00259 | .6ap23 | 30918 | 02177 | 97564 00259 37154 02616
39 00280 e97e8 | 20933 | .oz1e8 | 97533 00280 35769 02614
40 .00303 71431 26266 | 02185 | 97512 00303 93453 02585
a 00830 72803 | 26867 | 02300 | 97371 00330 31567 02702
42 00361 73243 | 26396 | 02998 | 97241 00362 80956 02812
43 00398 75201 24403 | 02400 | 97204 00387 28301 02783
44 00436 77257 | 22907 | 02365 | ‘97199 00497 25565 02711
45 00479 7a5s8 | 20963 | 02427 | ‘97094 00481 23861 02762
46 00528 79375 | 20098 02573 | 96900 00529 22795 02918
7 00582 90000 | 19418 | 02686 | 96732 00584 21966 03039
4a 00643 20836 j 18521 | 02844 | 96513 00645 20878 09206
43 00711 81662 | 17727 | 03011 96278 90714 19928 03385
50 00785 22954 | 16861 03141 | 96074 00788 19891 03519
51 00869 #3046 | 16085 | 03310 | 95821 00873 17977 03689
52 00947 | 83629 15424] 03861 | 95492 00952 17218 03974
53 i030 | 8d5s0 | 44419 | 03912 | (95087 01036 16048 04354
54 1118 | 85423 | 13459 | 04347 |  “9a534 01125 14949 04828
55 01211 s6009 | 12780 | 04883 | 93906 01218 114198 05425
56 £01313 86565 12422 .05923 92764 01322 13510 06601
8? 01429 87491 ‘1080 | 07528 | g1043 01439 12402 08426
58 01563 88392 19045 | .oenss | 9349 01675 “14294 10218
59 01712 90177 | o9it1 | 11200 | 87088 01727 10827 12694
60 01875 | .ssso | 08236 13982 | 84149 01893 09453 16048
6t 02046 90128 | 07825 | 16430 | 81529 02068 09103 19114
62 02227 | 90189 | 07615 | 18554 | 79220 02252 08975, 21867
63 02414 | 90324 | 07262 | 20784 76802 02444 08671 24817
64 02612 90474 | 08914 | 22803 | “74585 02647 08356 27569
65 02820 | 90426 | 06754 | 24122 73058 02860 08238 29425
86 .03043 90424 | 06533 | 2aeo0 | 72267 03090 08005 80255
87 03293 9056s | o6ta2 | 26232 | 71475 03348 07554 31033
68 03677 90603 | 05820 25232 | 71191 03642 07167 31072
69 03893 sosea | 05414 | 25343 | 70764 03970 06679 31262
70 04238 90871 | 0801 | 26088 | 69724 04330 08062 22276
a 04603 90957 | 04440 | 25865 | 89532 04711 05805, 82073
72 04979 80948 .04073 26201 68820 05106 .05070 32619
73 05359 | 90651 | 03990 | 27557 | ‘e7oB4 08807 05028 24728
74 05750 | 90943 | 03807 | 27980 | 66270 05920 04179 35356
75 06161 91349 02478 22977 70850 06357 03037 28162

' Mortality rates used are those of the general male population.


Table A-6. Worklife expectancies for women by schooling completed, 1979-80

{Average years remaining)

Expectation of active life by schooling completed and
current labor force status
Lite Less than high school High school to 14 years 15 years or more of schooling
Age expectancy *

Total | Currently | Currenty | Total | Currently | Currently | Total | Curenty | Currently

active | inactive active | inactive active | inactive
aa ia +e aa ia + aa ia

x x a ox ox x ox ox
o @ ® O} 3) © fc) ® co) (10)
16 629 224 228 218 - - - - - -
7 618 21.6 22.3 209 - - - - - -
418 61.0 214 219 204 28.9 29.6 27.8 - - -
19 60.0 20.7 216 19.9 28.3 29.0 27.3 - - -
20 59.1 20.2 at 19.4 277 28.4 26.5 a6 922 30.3
2 58.1 19.7 20.6 18.8 27.0 27.8 25.8 30.9 314 20.6
22 57.1 193 20.2 18.4 26.4 272 25.1 30.4 20.7 28.9
23 56.2 188 198 179 257 26.5 24.4 20.4 30.0 28.1
24 56.2 18.4 19.4 174 25.1 25.9 2a7 28.7 203 27.3
25 542 179 189 17.0 24.4 25.3 23.0 279 28.8 26.4
26 53.3 174 185 165 23.8 247 22.4 272 27.9 25.6
27 62.3 17.0 18.1 16.0 23.2 244 216 265 272 24.8
28 513 165 177 155 22.5 2a5 21.0 25.7 265 24.0
29 50.4 16.1 172 15.0 219 22.8 20.3 25.0 25.9 23.2
30 49.4 156 168 145 21.8 224 198 243 252 22.4
31 48.4 15.4 164 14.0 20.6 2an7 19.0 23.6 245 217
32 475 147 16.0 19.4 20.0 att 183 22.9 23.8 20.8
33 46.5 142 186 129 19.4 20.4 176 22.2 23.1 20.2
34 456 1387 152 124 188 198 170 21.6 22.4 195
36 44.6 133 148 119 18.1 19.2 163 208 217 188
36 43.6 128 144 11.3 175 186 156 204 21.0 18.0
37 427 123 14.0 107 168 17.9 149 19.3 20.2 172
38 417 118 13.5 102 162 173 144 18.6 195 16.4
38 40.8 1W4 13.4 97 155 167 13.4 179 18.7 155
40 39.9 199 127 94 149 160 12.6 7A 18.0 147
41 38.9 10.4 123 36 142 18.4 11.8 16.4 173 13.8
42 38.0 99 118 at 435 148 14 156 16.5 129
43 374 95 114 78 129 14.2 10.3 148 158 120
44 36.2 90 11.0 Al 122 13.6 26 14.4 15.4 44
45 95.2 a5 105 66 116 13.0 89 133 14.4 10.41
46 34.3 at 10.0 64 10.9 124 82 126 137 93
47 33.4 76 96 56 103 119 75 11.8 13.0 a5
48 32.5 7A a4 52 o7 114 69 14 123 78
49 a16 67 a7 a7 eo] 10.8 63 10.4 146 7A
50 90.8 62 83 42 85 10.3 57 a7 109 64
51 29.9 57 79 38 78 98 61 89 102 57
52 20.0 53 78 34 73 93 46 82 96 5.0
83 28.2 49 7A 3.0 6B 88 41 76 90 44
54 273 44 87 27 62 83 36 68 83 39
55 26.6 40 63 24 57 77 32 62 78 34
56 25.6 38 59 24 62 72 28 56 72 29
57 24.8 33 55 18 47 67 25 50 67 24
58 24.0 29 52 16 42 63 22 45 63 24
59 29.2 26 49 14 38 58 19 38 58 18
60 224 23 48 1.3 a3 54 17 a5 54 16
6 216 2a 43 BI 29 50 15 3.0 5A 14
62 208 18 44 1.0 28 47 13 26 48 12
63 201 16 ag 3 23 44 14 23 46 1.0
a4 193 14 a7 r 20 42 1.0 20 43 rc
65 185 12 a5 & 18 40 3 18 44 8
66 17.8 BI 33 6 16 38 7 16 40 7
67 74 19 34 5 14 37 6 14 38 6
68 164 8 3.0 4 12 a5 5 12 37 5
69 16.6 7 29 a 14 a4 4 wi 36 4
70 149 8 27 2 1.0 a2 a 10 35 3
a 143 3 25 2 9 a0 3 2 33 3
72 136 3 23 4 7 28 2 8 3.0 2
7a 13.0 4 20 4 7 25 4 7 27 a
74 123 3 17 9 6 24 4 8 23 a
ed 17 2 12 2 5 15 ° 5 16 2

) Mortatity rates used are those of the general female population.



Revised worklife tables
reflect 1979-80 experience

New worklife estimates, based on an expanded sample
of individuals, provide more complete measures

of labor force behavior than were previously
possible; the effects of race and educational
attainment on lifetime economic activity

are explored for the first time

Srey J. SMITH

It is estimated that if mortality conditions and labor force
entry and exit rates held constant at levels observed in 1979
to 1980, males born during those years would work about
a third longer (38.8 years) over their lifetimes than would
their female counterparts (29.4 years). Whites would work
considerably longer than blacks and others, with white women
working more than 2 years longer and white men nearly 7
years longer than their minority counterparts. The impact
of education would be seen not only in occupational choice,
but also in the total length of time spent in the labor force.
Although remaining in school might delay career entry,
those who studied longest would also spend the most years
being economically active.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has been producing work-
life estimates for the U.S. population since 1950. Initially,
these estimates portrayed workers as being continuously
active from the time of initial labor force entry until final
retirement. In 1982, after completing a major study of work-
life methodology, the BLS published its first set of increment-
decrement, or multistate, working life tables for the years
1970 and 1977.’ Based on observed rates of labor force
entry and exit at all ages, those tables for the first time

Shirley J. Smith is a demographic statistician in the Office of Employment
and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. This report is
based on a paper she and Francis W. Horvath, an economist with the
Bureau, presented at the 1984 annual meeting of the Population Association
of America, Minneapolis, MN.

quantified the impact of midlife labor force withdrawal and
reentry on worklife duration. Their publication drew re-
sponses from many economists involved in litigation of
wrongful injury or death cases. Several such responses have
been published in the Monthly Labor Review,’ and some of
the refinements proposed by readers have since been im-
plemented in Bis worklife research.?

This analysis incorporates some of those refinements,
updates the 1982 study, and presents a new set of official
worklife estimates based on patterns observed during the
period 1979-80. It also adds two new dimensions to the
discussion, for the first time exploring how race and edu-
cational background affect lifetime labor force behavior.

Method of the new study

As was the case with previous BLS worklife estimates,
the new figures have been calculated from information col-
Jected in the Current Population Survey (cps), a nationwide
monthly household survey conducted by the Bureau of the
Census on behalf of the BLS.* Individuals are interviewed
during each of 4 successive months, and again in the same
4 months of the following year. Questions focus on the
labor force behavior of household members during the week
preceding each interview.

For the period of study, cps records have been matched
so that each person’s status at the beginning and end of a
12-month interval can be compared. Labor force transitions


Technical Appendix

The current set of worklife tables is an update and
extension of those published in 1982 in Bulletins 2135 and
2157. The basic methodology, detailed in Bulletin 2135,
has not changed.

Data input. Multistate (increment-decrement) working
life tables are derived from information about changes
in the labor force status of individuals between two points
in time, 12 months apart. The flows in question are
outlined in figure 1.

Using data collected by the Current Population
Survey (CPS), these flows are traced separately for
each sex-race and sex-educational attainment cohort.'
For the period 1979-80, responses of persons inter-
viewed in two successive January, March, May, July,
September, or November surveys have been compared
over the 1-year interval to obtain counts of the streams
noted in figure 1. Surviving respondents have been
classified as ‘‘active’’ or “‘inactive’’ if their status was
identical at the two reference points, and as “‘entrants’’
or “‘exits’’ if their status changed.? The number lost
to reinterview through death has been estimated
separately, using the standard mortality function q,
(here denoted ‘p4), The National Center for Health
Statistics publishes these rates annually. Because the
reference period for.labor force activity spans 2
calendar years, we have employed mortality rates
which are averages of those published for 1979 and
1980,

Life table calculations are performed on single-year-
of-age data. The reference period for events in these
tables is that between two exact ages, denoted x and
x+1. Survey data have a slightly different age
reference: The average person claiming to be ‘‘x’’ years
old is actually halfway between his x and x+ Ith birth-
days, or x + % years of age. Before developing the
life table functions, therefore, survey data must be
Tecentered on the appropriate age interval. The exact
age counts are derived from survey values as follows.
Using the example of persons economically active at

age ‘x’:

+ actives,

2

actives, _ %) 64+ 14)

actives,

The subscripts refer to the age of persons at the begin-
ning of the 1-year interval.

31

Transition probabilities (1p3). These probabilities
(shown for all men and all women in columns 8-12 of
tables A-1 and A-4) indicate the likelihood that an
individual of a given sex, age, labor force status
(and—though not shown—race or educational attain-
ment category) will be classified in each of three
possible states 1 year later: Economically active, in-
active, or dead. Since these outcomes exhaust all
possibilities, the probabilities sum to unity. Within
any demographic group for which a table has been
calculated:

‘ph + SpE + BE =
and

“ph + tp + tp =

Where:
i = economically inactive (out of labor force)
a = economically active (in the labor force)
d = dead

'p2 = the probability that a person of a given
characteristic, age x and in status 1 at the
beginning of the interval, will be in status
2 exactly 1 year later, at age x+1.

Differences in mortality risks associated with labor
force status have not yet been adequately quantified.
Therefore we have assumed those risks to be the same
for all persons of a given age, whether in or out of the
labor force. Thus:

Where:
- = all persons of given characteristics alive at the
beginning of the interval.

In the tables for all men, ali women, and men and
women by educational attainment, mortality rates have
been assumed to vary by age and sex. No educational
differentials have been introduced, owing to lack of
data. However, the tables by race employ additional

1 This information is collected from all age groups, 14 and above,
and has been processed for ages 14 through 76.

2 The data set used for this analysis does not facilitate a distinction
between initial and subsequent labor force entries.


Table A-4, Working life table for women, 1979-80—Continued

Stationary population living
in each status at exact age x,
per 100,000 parsons born

Number of status transfers within stationary
population during age interval x to x41

Labor force status Labor Voluntary Deaths by labor force status
‘Age force labor force
Total Active Inactive entries exits Total Active Inactive
a, i ia 1 d <
x , i, 18, a ad ‘a
(16) an (18) (19) 20) 1) (22) (23)
16 ‘98,357 42,096 56,261 20,433 20,207 49 23 25
7 98,308 51,999 46,309 22,270 20,435, 55 29 25
18 98,253 53,804 44,449 24,671 18,173 58 33 25
Ww 98,196 57,270 20,195 17,103 59 35 24
20 98,137 60,326 37,811 18,981 16,116 59 37 22
21 98,078 62,555 96,523 16,580 15,087 60 39 21
22 98,017 64,007 34,010 15,188 14,317 61 40 21
a 97,956 64,839 33,117 14,150 13,805 62 41 2
24 97,894 85,143 32,751 13,296 13,169 63 42 2
2 97,831 85,229 32,602 12,492 12,686 64 42 21
26 97,767 64,982 32,785 11,713 12,245 6s 43 22
iA 97,702 64,407 33,295. 11,252 11,739 66 43 23
28 97,636 63,876 33,760 10,994 11,303 68 44 24
29 97,568 63,522 34,046 10,720 10,826 70 45 24
30 97,499 63,371 34,128 10,359 10,331 72 47 25
an 97,427 63,353 34,074 10,035 9,978 76 49 27
32 ‘97,351 63,360 33,991 9,847 9,736 80 52 28
33 97,271 63,419 33,852 9,690 9,502 86 56 30
34 97,184 L550, 33,634 9,534 9,200 93 61 32
3s 97,091 63,823 33,268 9,307 8,833 101 o7 Kas
36 96,990 64,231 32,759 9,018 8,506 110 73 7
a7 96,680 64,668 32,212 8,723 8,197 120 81 40
Ey 96,760 65,114 31,646 8,335, 7,943 132 89 43
39 96,628 65.416 31,212 8,009 7,764 144, 98 46
40 96,484 65,564 30,920 7,650 7,440 159 108 51
at 96,325 65,665 30,660 7176 7,238 174 119 56
42 96,151 65,485, O,666 6,782 7,418 192 130 62
43 95,959 65,019 30,940 6,498 6,930 210 142 6a
44 95,749 64,445 31,304 6,238 6,785, 230 154 76
45 95,519 63,743 31,776 5,940 6,673 252 167 85
46 95,266 62,842 92,424 5,660, 6,603 275 180 95
47 94,991 61,719 33,272 5,494 6497 31 194 107
48 94,690 60,522 5,369 6,400 330 209 124
4g 94,360 59,282 5,244 6,330 61 225 136
50 93,999 57,971 547 6,187 395 241 154
51 93,604 56,688 4,968 6,033 4 268 172
52 93,174 55,365 4,680 5,948 466 274 192
53 92,708 53,823 4,482 5,856 504 287 214
54 92,207 52,162 40,045. 4,320 5,843 537 209 237
55 91,670 50,340 44,330 4,082 5,915 574 309 264
56 91,096 48,197 42,899 3,881 6,167 61S a8 297
57 90,481 45,593 888 3,737 6,426 662 324 338
58 89,819 42,580 47,239 3,595 6,451 717 328 388
59 89,102 39,395 49,707 3,484 6,599 778 337 448
60 88,325 35,950 52,375. 3,439 6,877 B45 328 518
61 87,479 32,164 55,295 3,450 6,995, O14 318 596
62 86,565 28,381 56,184 3,356 6716 983 303 679
63 85,582 24,717 60,865 3,242 6,237, 1,048 284 764
64 84,534 21,437 63,097 3,206 S712 4,412 266 847
65 89,422 18,566 64,756 3,104 S216 1,180 249 931
66 82,242 16,305 65,937 2,948 4823 1,254 234 1,020
67 80,988 14,195 66,793 2,769 4,446 1,339 221 1,118
68 79,650 12,297 67,353 2,612 4,922 1,439 210 1,229
69 78,214 10,777 67,434 2,501 3,460 1,551 204 1,347
70 76,660 8,614 67,046 2,358 3,127 1,669 201 1,468
71 74,991 B644, 86,347 2,246 2,917 1,790 198 1,592
72 73,201 7,775 85,426 2,159 2,709 1,913 196 1,717
73 71,287 7,029 64,258 2,059 2,478 2,036 195, 1,842
74 69,251 6415, 62,836 1,935 2,248 2,161 195 1,966
75 67,090 5,906 61,184 1,665. 2,425 2,288 189 2,100

7


Table B-3. Voluntary labor force separation rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80

(Annual rate per 1,000 population)

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total White Black and Less than High school to 15 years
" other high school 14 years or more
a) @ 8) @) 6) 6)
Men
16-19 169.8 1673 2018 161.6 - -
20-24 96.0 90.7 133.7 1053 89.1 1278
25.29 408 467 745 735 453 528
30-34 326 30.0 54.6 48.0 347 278
35-99 25.8 242 413 424 258 188
40-44 252 239 36.2 40.0 220 208
45-49 278 262 38.0 366 26.6 213
50-54 349 343 407 458 34.1 25.0
55-59 64.1 637 706 785 614 48.8
60-64 104.9 105.5 97.0 4024 108.2 903
65-69 828 84.0 70.7 742 BAT 206
70-74 58.1 58.4 55.3 53.9 58.9 647
bce 728 75.9 445 627 78.8 1108
Women
16-19 193.2 193.4 198.3 208.1 - -
20-24 148.0 145.7 164.9 170.4 151.1 142.7
25-29 120.4 1204 1228 141.2 124.1 113.8
30-34 100.2 101.0 96.6 118.0 1035 873
35-39 852 354 24.0 927 88.6 708
40-44 740 737 749 764 770 59.9
45-49 86 629 666 70.1 a8 52.0
50-54 84.3 64.0 74 68.0 629 589
55.59 70.1 603 773 672 675 78.1
60-64 755 747 826 622 805 826
65-68 545 533 659 465 598 55.5
70-74 374 373 348 34d 417 347
75+ 39.7 395 43.0 28.6 546 575

23


Table A-5. Life and worklife expectancies for women by race, 1979-80

(Average years remaining)

White women Black and other women
Expectation of active lite by Expectation of active life by
Lite labor force status Lite labor force status
Age expectancy Total Currently | Currently | ®*Pectancy Total Currently | Currently
active inactive active inactive
ter aa i 5 aa ig
‘ e é 4, 8,
0 ® @ oy 8 @ a) ®@
16 63.4 29.6 30.3 28.9 89.7 278 23.6 27.3
7 625 29.1 298 28.2 587 275 28.4 26.9
18 615 285 29.2 278 577 274 28.0 268
19 605 278 28.6 270 568 26.7 278 26.1
20 59.6 278 280 263 558 268 274 258
21 586 267 274 258 548 258 266 26.0
22 576 26.0 28.7 248 53.9 253 26.1 243
23 58.7 25.4 26.1 244 529 247 255 287
24 55.7 247 26.5 23.3 52.0 24.2 24.9 23.0
25 54.7 241 249 226 51.0 235 243 223
26 538 234 242 219 50.1 229 237 216
27 528 228 236 212 49.2 228 23.1 209
28 518 22.1 23.0 206 48.2 218 225 202
29 50.9 21.6 22.4 19.9 47.3 21.0 218 19.4
30 499 208 218 192 46.3 20.3 212 187
31 48.9 20.2 21.2 18.6 45.4 19.7 20.5 179
32 48.0 198 206 178 45 19.0 199 172
33 47.0 19.0 20.0 72 43.5 18.3 19.3 16.5
34 46.0 183 194 166 428 177 186 187
35 45.1 17.7 18.7 15.9 41.7 17.0 18.0 15.0
36 aay 170 18.1 152 40.7 163 17.4 142
37 43.4 16.4 178 144 398 15:7 168 135
38 42.2 15.8 16.9 13.7 38.9 15.0 16.2 12.8
39 a2 18.4 162 129 38.0 144 156 124
40 40.3 144 15.6 12.2 37.1 13.8 15.0 11.4
4 393 13.8 15.0 114 36.2 13.1 145 107
42 38.4 13.1 14.3 10.6 35.3 12.5, 13.9 10.14
43 378 124 137 99 345 119 13.4 95
44 365 118 13.1 92 33.6 113 12.8 ag
45 35.6 141 425 a4 327 108 123 83
46 347 105 120 78 31.9 102 17 72
a7 33.8 a9 11.4 ral 314 8.6 41.2 7A
48 329 92 109 65 30.2 90 106 66
49 320 86 103 59 20.8 as 10.4 60
50 314 80 98 58 286 79 95 85
51 302 74 93 47 278 74 90 49
52 29.3 69 88 42 27.0 68 BE 44
53 28.4 63 a3 37 262 63 80 39
54 276 58 7B 33 255 87 75 35
55 28.7 53 73 29 247 52 70 30
56 25.9 47 68 25 239 47 6s 27
a7 25.0 43 63 22 23.2 42 61 23
58 24.2 38 59 19 224 38 56 20
59 23.4, 3.4 54 V7 a7 3.4 5.2 1.8
60 226 30 8A 18 21.0 30 48 18
61 21.8 26 47 1S 20.3 2.6 45 1.3
62 21.0 23 44 12 19.6 23 42 inl
63 20.2 20 42 10 19.0 20 39 1.0
64 19.4 18 40 2 18.3 V7 37 &
65 18.7 16 38 B 17.7 15 4 7
66 17.9 14 36 6 17.0 13 32 6
7 17.2 1.2 35 5 16.4 11 3.0 5
68 164 10 33 5 18.7 a 29 4
69 18.7 2 32 4 15.1 2 28 3
70 15.0 8 3.0 a 145 7 27 2
ral 14.3 a 28 4 13.9 6 26 2
2 136 6 26 2 134 3 26 4
73 13.0 Ss 23 4 129 3 23 4
74 12.3 4 1.9 Oo 42.3 4 1 a
75 11.7 3 1.3 O 118 A 1.4 ao

' Mortality rates used reflect racial differentials in survival.

19


Figure 1. Labor force flows for each demographic group identified in the 1979-80 working lite tables

State at time 2, age x + 1

State at time 1, age x
Total In labor force Not in labor force Dead
In labor force .. Group A Actives Exits Deaths of actives
Not in labor for Group B Entrants Inactives Deaths of inactives

information on racial differentials in mortality, so that,
for instance:

wnpd g ompd

Where:
wm, pd = the death rate of all white males of a
given age, regardless of labor force
status
om.pd = the death rate of all black and other

males of a given age, regardless of labor
force status

For each group tabulated, transition probabilities are
computed as row percentages from age-adjusted tables
like figure 1. For instance, the probability of entering the
labor force over the year’s interval beginning at age x is
computed as:

ina entrants,

Px = Group B,

Rates of transfer between statuses (m2). These rates
(which appear for total men and total women in columns
13-15 of tables A-1 and A-4) denote the number of
tranfers from state 1 to state 2 during the interval from
exact age x to exact age x+1, per thousand cohort
members age x in the stationary population. As a ratio
of events to population, these rates make allowance for
the fact that a single individual may change his or her
status repeatedly during any year. Transfer rates are com-
puted from transition probabilities as follows:

4x api
(1 + pd + 'pL) — Cp, x *p3)
and so on. The probability of transition and the rate
of transfer for a given age are positively related so
that the higher the likelihood of changing status
over a 1-year interval, the greater the rate of transfer
and the larger the difference between their respective
values.

ami =

The stationary population (-1,), inactive population (1),
and stationary labor force @1,) at each exact age.
These functions appear in columns 16-18 of the com-
plete worklife tables, A-1 and A-4. They denote the
number of persons of a give cohort who would remain
in each labor force status at successive birthdays if
100,000 persons of the same sex and race or ultimate

32

educational attainment, born at the same time, were
“survived”? until all persons had died, at each age
experiencing the mortality and labor force probabili-
ties observed in the base population during the reference
year. The stationary population at any given age x is
merely cohort survivors at the beginning of the previous
age, multiplied by their probability of surviving that
age:

A= yy XG - pty).

Group-specific transfer rates are used to determine how
many cohort members will be active or inactive at each
successive age. For instance, the number of inactives at
age x is equal to the stock of inactives in the cohort 1
year earlier, plus persons leaving the labor force at any
time during the interval, minus all those entering the labor
force, minus inactives who died:

4 = Hy + @lyiy x *mi_,)
~ G1, x 'm_y) ~ Gy; x ‘mf_,.

This function can be restated in terms of numbers who
transferred between states 1 and 2, as observed only at
those ages ('t2): .

. . . . ta
My = "qe + Ga — Ba > Ma

The number of such transfers is shown in columns 19-23
of the complete worklife tables, A-1 and A-4,

Remaining labor force entries (BR) and voluntary exits
EX) per person. The average number of labor force
entries and exits remaining per person of a given age
is computed by summing the relevant transfer values
(12 or 4.) from that age to the end of the table and
dividing the total by persons alive at the beginning of that
age, ‘1,. Comparative estimates for the 12 cohorts in
question are shown in tables B-9 and B-10.

Expectation of life (-e;,), and working life (2) for all
persons aged x. The stationary population values shown
in columns 16-18 of the complete tables can be read to
represent a longitudinal history of a single birth cohort,
showing the labor force status of survivors to each suc-
cessive birthday.

Assuming that changes in status {i.c., deaths and
labor force entries and exits) are evenly distributed
throughout the year, the total number alive at mid-year


Table A-3. Worklife expectancies for men by schooling completed, 1975-80

(Average years remaining)

Expectation of active life by schooling completed and

current labor force status

lite Less than high schoo! High school to 14 years 15 years or more of schooling
Age expectancy ' 7
Total_| Currently | Currently | Total | Cumently | Currently | Total | Currently | Gurrently
active | inactive active | inactive active | inactive
aa ia aa ina . aa a
x e ox ey an e ey, on
“ @ @ ® 6) co) o ® @ (19)
16 555 sag | 356 34.0 - - - - - -
7 546 343 | 350 334 - - - - - -
1B 537 aga | 345 aza | 389 | 395 379 - - -
19 528 aa2 | 339 321 | 993 | 388 are - - -
20 518 326 | gaa a5 | a76 | 381 35 | 395 | 402 385
2 50.9 320 | 326 x08 | 369 | 373 367 | 339 | 396 37.8
22 50.0 aia | 320 300 | 361 | 66 349 | 983 | 389 374
23 49.1 307 | 312 203 | 354 | 358 aaa | 376 | 382 36.4
24 48.2 soo | 305 zea | sas | 949 33a {| 369 | 374 356
25 473 a2 | 208 276 | 338 | ga. 361 | 366 36.8
26 46.4 285 | 290 268 | s29 | 332 : 353 | 358 340
27 455 ar7 | 282 260 | 321 | 324 306 | 45 | 349 3a
28 446 269 | 275 251 | 312 | 316 206 | aa6 | 340 322
28 43.7 262 | 26.7 zay | 303 | 306 27 | 328 | 332 318
30 428 254 | 25.9 230 | 204 | 297 277 | 319 | 328 304
a1 419 246 | 252 221 | 28s | 289 267 | 310 | 314 295
32 409 238 | 244 ait | 277 | 280 257 | 901 | 905 286
33 40.0 230 | 236 203 | 268 | 271 247 | 292 | 206 277
34 30.1 222 | 228 194 | 259 | 262 236 | 283 | 287 268
35 38.2 za | 220 185 | 250 | 254 226 | 274 | 277 25.9
36 373 205 | 212 75 | 241 | 205 216 | 265 | 268 249
a7 368 197 | 204 tee | 232 | 206 205 | 256 | 259 23.9
38 354 189 | 196 168 | 229 | 228 194 | 246 | 250 229
39 345 18.1 189 149 | 215 | ate te4 | 237 | 241 219
40 33.6 wa | tet 140 | 206 | 210 i739 | 228 | 292 209
at 327 165 | 173 18.1 197 | 202 163 | 219 | 223 198
42 218 157 | 166 122 | 18 | 193 154 | 2t0 | ata 188
43 30.9 150 | 158 713 | 180 | 185 145 | 201 | 205 176
44 30.1 12 | 151 sos | 174 17.6 135 | 192 | 197 16.5
45 292 134 | 148 95 | 163 | 168 we | 14 | 188 155
46 28.3 126 13.6 a7 16.4 16.0 W7 17.5 17.9 14.5
47 275 19 | 129 79 | 146 | 151 tos | 166 | 171 185
48 26.6 WA 12.4 ral 13.7 14.3 10.1 15.8 16.3 12.5
49 258 oa | 114 64 | 129 | 135 99 | 149 | 154 11.8
50 250 96 | 107 a7 | 124 128 as | 141 146 105
51 242 ea | 101 BA 13 | 120 77 | 139 | 138 96
52 23.4 82 a4 a5 | 105 | 112 eo | 124 | 180 87
53 226 75 87 40 9.7 10.5 64 11.6 12.2 79
54 218 68 81 36 9.0 97 53 | tos | 115 7.0
55 aa 62 75 32 82 9.0 47 | 100 } 107 62
56 203 55 68 28 78 ag 40 92 | 100 54
57 196 49 63 25 67 76 as a5 93 4?
58 189 44 58 22 60 70 30 27 86 49
59 182 38 53 20 58 64 26 70 80 a5
60 175 39 49 18 a7 59 23 6a 74 34
61 168 29 45 16 41 55 20 56 70 27
62 16.4 26 42 14 36 5 1.8 5.0 65 24
63 155 22 38 13 32 48 16 45 61 22
64 148 20 37 im 28 48 14 40 ST 19
65 142 18 36 10 24 43 12 36 Ba 17
66 136 16 34 8 22 4s 10 32 84 14
o7 13.0 1.4 33 re 19 3.9 2 28 4g 1.2
68 125 12 32 6 Ww a7 7 25 46 3
69 19 1 34 5 15 36 6 22 44 7
70 114 10 29 4 18 34 4 19 44 5
7 10.9 a 28 3 1.1 3.2 3 17 39 3a
2 104 8 26 2 10 3.0 2 14 a6 2
73 9.9 a 23 a 8 27 a 1.2 3.2 a
74 94 & 2.0 a a 23 a 1.0 27 oO
75 9.0 5 16 0 6 18 x 2 22 0

' Mortality rates used are those of the general male population.

14


Table 5. Rates of labor force accession and separation per 1,000 persons at risk, by sex, race, and years of schooling

completed, 1979-80

Men Women
Age Race Years of schooling complete Race ‘Years of schooling’completed
Total | white | Black and | Less than | High schoo! | 15 years |! Total | 1 | Black and | Less than [High school] 15 years
other high school | to 14 years | or more other high school | to 14 years | or more
‘Labor force accessions per 1,000 inactive men Labor force accessions per 1,000 Inactive women
16-19 596.1 620.1 525.8 506.0 _ = 527.5 564.1 409.3 425.4 _ -
20-24 666.4 672.6 649.0 511.2 119.2 685.2 454.8 462.1 320.1 457.4 568.7
25-29 cad | oat | 6468 amr mio | 733 3818 3978 268.3 37 | ao
30-34 547.1 558.1 520.6 330.1 568.3 802.2 292.3 320.0 229.8 303.3 319.3,
35-39 407.1 444.3, 306.9 ane 403.0 ‘787.2 23 248.0 185.0 287.3 330.2
40-44 297.8 327.9 208.7 236.1 285.6 539.1 27 189.1 149.0 237.2 287.3
45-49 azz | 20s | 2132 1728 a2 | 3506 1641 165.1 136.2 i704 | 1998
50-54 wes | 1750 | 1388 123.8 233 | 2609 tee7 1417 102.4 vera | 1853
55-59 120.9 129.0 753A 93.4 142.8 174.5, 814 100.3 67.8 85.8 99.6
60-64 88.6 92.0 62.9 B14 93.7 103.8 56.4 68.7 48.4 64.0 55.4
5.3 754 76.4 78.7 95.6 8 50.1 a7 47.9 85
wee 62.0 518 545, 50.2 54.0 333 at 297 38.9 36.2
75 and over 39 42 10 47 37 12 at 22 28 44 37
Labor force separations per 1,000 active men force separations per 1,000 active women
1619... as | 229 | 492 2718 ~ - aia | 3056 | saz 465 - -
20-24 vos | 125 | 1053 1439 1075 1704 zs | zea | 2008 360.5, var | 1907
25-29 566 | 526 898 08 509 0.1 vss | too | 1044 3003 ‘sig | 1533
30-34 367 BS 65.0 58.4 38.8 30.9 154.5 157.0 140.7 247.3 160.3 121.4
35-39 30.0 a7 52.0 52.4 30.0 a8 128.5 129.1 124.8 190.0 133.0 94.9
40-44 os | 28 497 513 273 250 112 | 198 | tt98 1571 1144 73
45-49 36.5 wt 56.1 50.4 35.0 28.3 109.7 109.1 12.8 145.8 114.3 70.5
50-54 50.1 48.3 66.8 69.2 484 364 47 113.8 122.6 153.2 11.6 86.5
‘55-59. 98.9 6.3 127.2 133.6 91.8 Ne 151.5 149.9 166.1 192.0 140.0 139.3
60-64 232.5, 227.5 286.5, 205.3 225.6 160.8 253.5, 252.4 262.8 275.8 249.4 238.6
65-69 337.9 332.4 386.7 405.0 325.2 246.2 330.4 333.2 393.9 352.3, 335.4 (322.7
70-74... 381.8 380.3 374.2 443.1 367.6 277.2 364.5, 377.4 428.0 cial 380.3 37.4
75 and aver 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0 1000.0

anticipate fewer transitions in either direction.

Over a lifetime, the average man with 15 years of school-
ing or more can expect to work 6.5 years longer than his
classmate who left high school before graduation (41.1 vs.
34.6). The same increment to education will have twice as
much impact on the worklife duration of a woman, adding
an average of 12.6 years to her economically active life
(34.9 vs. 22.3 years).

Table 6 isolates the impact of education during three
periods of the worklife cycle: the early and middle phases
and the preretirement years. It displays the number of years
the average person can be expected to work during each
such phase, by sex and years of schooling completed.

At younger ages, education has a two-pronged effect on
men: While failure to earn a high school diploma costs the
individual about a year and a half of worklife between the
ages of 20 and 39, remaining in school also imposes a cost
in terms of forgone employment opportunities. However,
among the group ages 40 to 59, the payoff from education
is very evident. Those completing 15 years of school or
more can expect to work 1 year longer than high school
graduates, and 3 years longer than those who did not grad-
uate. Even though higher education, with its greater com-
pensation returns, may ease the financial strain of retirement,
it seems to engender a sense of ‘‘career commitment’’ in
many men which holds them in the labor force. (This is

evident in the separation rates in table 5.) Examples of this
phenomenon include self-employed career professionals such
as attorneys and physicians, who are reputed to remain
active long after most wage and salary workers have retired.
An additional effect of schooling seems to be that—among
those who have ‘‘retired,”’ at least in terms of their principal
job—the most educated are the most likely to return to work
in some capacity, as reflected in accession rates. Finally, if
educational attainment is positively correlated with good
health and longevity, untreated health problems may dis-
courage economic activity among the least educated, least

Table 6. Worklife expectancy of the population between
Specific, ages,' by sex and years of schooling completed,

Sex and years of ‘Age
‘schooling completed 20 to 39 40 to 59 | 60 and over
Men, total... 17.6 16.3 44
Less than high school . - - 16.0 145 34
High school to 14 years... 17.9 16.6 47
4B years or mores... 2... 176 75 63
Women, total... 13.1 16 3.0
Less than high schoo! 95 88 23
High school to 14 years | 934 18 34
$B years or more... | 14.0 147 35

‘Computed using the difference in workyears remaining at ages 20, 40, and 60, divided
by survivors to each initial age,



Table B-9, Remaining labor force accessions per person entering age interval by sex, age, race, and schooling completed,
1979-80

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High school to 15 years
other high school 14 years or more
ay 2) @) @) (5} ®

Men

16-19 2.0 29 a7 a4 - -
20-24 24 24 28 26 20 22
25-29 15 1's 18 20 ts 14
3034 12 12 14 18 12 14
35-39 4 uw ce) 13 14 ‘2
40-44 10 ‘9 10 12 ‘9 ‘8
45-49 2 2 2 10 ‘2 7
50-54 7 2 7 ‘2 8 7
55-59 7 2 ‘8 3 7 6
60-64 's 6 8 6 6 5
65-68 4 ‘4 ‘4 4 ‘4 4
70-74 2 2 2 2 2 2
e+ 20 » ° 2 0 2
Women

1619 48 47 60 BA - -
20-24 38 3B 40 42 39 34
25:28 30 30 34 a3 32 27
30-34 25 25 24 26 26 22
35-39 20 20 18 2A 2A 47
20-48 1's 15 1'6 16 16 14
45-49 12 12 43 12 13 u4
50-54 8 ‘3 10 8 1.0 ‘8
55-69 7 7 z 6 7 's
60-64 6 5 ' 5 3 3
65-48 3 3 3 3 4 3
70-74 2 2 A 1 Zz 2
7+ 9 2 ‘0 0 ° °

29


Table B-6. Total labor force separations per 1,000 persons alive at beginning of age interval by sex, age, race, and schooling
completed, 1979-80

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total whit Black and Less than High school to 45 years
me other high schoo! 14 years or more
a 2) @) @ 6) ®

Men

16-19 681.1 671.3 807.9 648.2 - -
20-24 4258 459.3 e744 531.5 451.9 843.6
25-29 2566 240.3 363.8 3737 2345 anz
30-34 i713 187.1 2878 247.4 181.8 147.4
38-39 1403 130.8 2265 2212 139.9 105.8
40-44 141.8 133.1 208.0 2135 126.1 119.8
45-49 1624 153-4 228.4 2044 1878 1924
50-54 2108 205.4 2576 259.6 207.8 165.5
55-59 362.8 359.0 4049 408.8 352.0 2965
60-64 5408 553.5 504.1 525.4 569.3 497.0
65-69 4246 431.3 359.1 3740 436.4 479.3
70-74 2975 2088 2848 2704 303.2 351.2
75+ 737 7A 45.2 637 80.1 1125
Women

16-19 773.4 773.9 793.4 832.4 - -
20-24 740.7 7296 8255 852.1 756.3 7148
25-29 603.4 603.1 6148 7063 6216 588.9
30-34 5027 508.2 486.3 590.9 519.2 438.6
35-38 429.0 429.7 4257 465.0 445.9 3576
40-44 3748 3728 3827 383.5 380.0 306.2
45-49 360.5, 350.7 345.8 355.9 366.5 270.2
50-54 332.2 329.7 354.2 3473 3256 309.1
55-59, 3618 357.0 4038 3434 350.0 405.3
60-64 3847 380.1 4238 3187 410.4 4219
65-69 2758 269.4 3313 2347 302.2 2Bt4
70-74 188.7 188.5 W747 1726 210.8 1779
75+ 38.0 388 424 28.1 536 565



Table 1. Worklife expectancy of the population, 1970 and
1977, and of all persons by labor force status in’ 1979-80,
by sex and age
Un years}

‘Workdife expectancy | Worklife expectaney by current labor

Sex ane of the population force status, 1
os 7970 1977 Total ‘Aellva | inactive
Men
0 378 37.9 20.8 — 38.8
16 38.7 385 391 39.8 383
20 37.3 26.8 26.8 374 36.7
5 m4 33.4 33.4 35 18
30 30.8 292 28.3 292 a4
% 26.1 247 245 24.8 224
40 a7 20.3 20.0 20.4 169
5 174 189 187 16.3 118
50 134 WW? 16 123 7s
55 95 78 78 ar 42
80 60 43 a4 57 22
5. 31 18 23 44 12
70 V4 cc) 12 32 4
B 6 5 6 ik 0
Women

a 223 a5 29.4 — a4
16 25 a7 293 30.1 287
20 213 26.0 272 279 264
ca 19.0 23.0 24.0 24.8 226
30 16.7 199 20.8 nT 19.1
5 146 168 176 18.6 187
40. 12.3 13.7 14.3 15.5 124
5 ag 10.5 14 125 84
50 75 78 BO a8 53
55 52 48 52 72 29
60 31 25 30 50 18
& 14 oR 15 38 7
70 6 5 8 3.0 3
5 4 1 3 13 0

with the largest change occurring in the age range 25 to 54.
This change in cross-sectional] rates signaled shifts in the
underlying patterns of labor force involvement. However,
because the multistate model builds on flow data (that is,
entry and exit rates) rather than stocks (activity rates), the
relationship between changes in activity rates and worklife
values is sometimes weak.°

During the period in question, the observed participation
rate for men 16 and older edged downward from 77.7 per-
cent to 77.4 percent, while their worklife expectancy rose
by .6 years. Worktife expectancies held steady for men aged
55 to 64, despite a modest drop in activity rates. Further,
despite the observed drop in participation rates of those 65
and older, worklife expectancies for these men actually rose
slightly as life expectancy increased.

Among women 16 and older, whose total activity rate
rose by 3.1 percentage points, worklife duration increased
by 1.8 years. The fact that expectancies rose across the
board indicates that women of all ages were developing a
stronger bond with the job market.

The relationship between lifespans and worklife expec-
tancies is particularly revealing. (See table 3.) Between 1977
and the end of the decade, the life expectancy of the average
20-year-old man rose by half a year. His worklife expec-
tancy went unchanged, the entire gain being allocated to
nonmarket activity. Women of the same age also gained a

half year of life, but allocated this additional time to labor
force activity and reduced nonmarket time by an average
of .7 years, for a total worklife gain of 1.2 years. As a
result, the sex differential in worklife continued to narrow.
Whereas in 1977 the 20-year-old woman could expect to
work 70.7 percent as long as her male counterpart, by 1979—
80 the ratio had risen to 73.9 percent.

The trend toward earlier retirement observed between
1970 and 1977 appeared to have leveled off in the closing
years of the decade. The worklife expectancy of 65-year-
old men, which had dropped from 3.1 years in 1970 to 1.9
in 1977, was 2.3 years by the end of the decade. (See table
4.) For women of a comparable age, the figure had dropped
from 1.4 to 1.1 years, but stood at 1.5 years by 1979-80.
The model's insensitivity to hours of work makes it difficult
to interpret these changes. They may well reflect the im-
permanence of many retirement decisions, and the fact that
so-called retirees often resume part-time jobs for either eco-
nomic or social reasons. !°

The new tables show little change in the proportion of
persons expected to die while economically active. (See
table 4.) In 1977, the figures for men and women were 27.0
percent and 9.5 percent, respectively, compared with 27.4
percent and 10.4 percent for 1979-80.

Differentials by race and education

Although expansion of the data base for the present study
has obscured our view of changing labor force mobility
rates, this loss has been more than offset by an improved
perspective on racial and educational differentials. Data users
have long pressed for more focused tables, and the new
estimates should meet some of their more urgent needs.

Life table models derive their estimates of lifetime be-
havior not from panel studies but from a series of cross-
sectional surveys collected during a single year. Each age

Table 2. Annual average civilian labor force participation
rates by sex and age, 1977 and 1980

[in percent}

Change,

Sex and age 1977 1977-80

Men, total.
7

BENBX
SRR BRASS

Spon neeoan Sank NeBos

65 and over

Women, total

wie S2aat weln

g
w2hS SRBEE
eee aaaNe

2BR RBIs

65 and over



have been registered if labor force status changed between
the two reference dates. Transition rates have been devel-
oped for each age, sex, race, and educational category to
identify the group’s unique pattern of labor force mobility.

The worklife tables for 1977 were derived from a single
matched sample of about 40,000 persons, interviewed in
January 1977 and again in January 1978. To provide the
additional demographic detail presented below, the current
study pools six matched samples focusing on individuals’
labor force status in a given month of £979 and in the same
month of 1980. Specifically, the study focuses on persons
interviewed in the following months of each of the 2
years: January, March, May, July, September, and No-
vember. Together the six samples include nearly 255,000
matched responses.*

The multistate working life table model is extremely sen-
sitive to rapid changes in rates of labor force entry or with-
drawal. Tables based on a recessionary period, during which
labor force exits increase, present a very bleak picture of
lifetime labor force involvement. Conversely, those cal-
culated during periods of rapid recovery or expansion tend
to overstate the average degree of lifetime labor force at-
tachment. To avoid the problems caused by the cyclical
swings of the early 1980's, the current study rests on data
for a somewhat earlier but less turbulent period, 1979 to
1980.

The cost of avoiding cyclical irregularities in this way is
that certain secular trends may be understated. To the extent
that underlying patterns of male and female labor force
involvement have converged since 1980, the sex differen-
tials in this report may overstate those now in evidence.
However, until it is possible to update the tables again, the
1979-80 period has been judged the most viable for cal-
culation of multistate worklife estimates.

Factors affecting worklife duration

In the working life tables for 1970 and 1977, worklife
duration was treated as if it were a simple function of sex
and age. Tables were prepared separately for mea and women,
giving no additional demographic or functional detail by
race, educational attainment, occupation, or other charac-
teristics that might distinguish high from low tumover groups.

In reality, labor force attachments are influenced by a
variety of factors, including training, health, marital and
family responsibilities, economic opportunity, and addi-
tional sources of income. However, it is not feasible to
control for all of these factors in computing worklife ex-
pectancy. For example, while worklife estimates by occu-
pation are in particular demand, it would require development
of a clustering scheme for occupations by prevailing work
patterns, together with study of job changes among poten-
tially hundreds of occupations, to compute them. The only
other approach is to assume that no such changes occur.®
Because neither of these alternatives is practical, no such
estimates are computed. Nonetheless, this study does add

two new dimensions to the estimation of worklife: race and
education. Tables are presented separately for each of these
two variables, However, the combined impact of race and
education has not been computed because the present matched
sample is too limited to develop reliable joint probabilities.

Working life tables show the combined effects of mor-
tality and labor force mobility rates on lifetime labor force
involvement. The mortality estimates used in this report are
averages of the 1979 and 1980 values released by the Na-
tional Center for Health Statistics.” Tables by race incor-
porate the effects of sex- and race-specific mortality. Those
focusing on education employ only sex-specific rates, be-
cause there are no comparable mortality tables by education.
Of course, access to health care is apt to be correlated with
schooling. If it were possible to quantify this relationship,
the tables would probably show still wider discrepancies
between the worklives of the less and more educated.

Apart from the factors listed above, all of which affect
the behavior of workers, certain properties of the data may
also influence our perception of that behavior. Model as-
sumptions and sample design are two such factors. The BLS
worklife model has changed little since 1977; it should cause
no marked discontinuities.* However, the expanded sample,
in which subsets are observed at six different points during
the year, captures more labor force mobility than was ev-
ident in the earlier tables. In particular, the new sample
includes two groups of persons whose labor force behavior
was observed, retrospectively, in May and July of each of
the 2 years. This is the period during which students and
seasonal workers are most likely to report themselves as
economically active.

Neither worklife expectancies nor net flows appear to
have changed greatly between 1977 and the end of the
decade. But rates of labor force accession and separation
rose noticeably. Because of modification of the sample, such
differences should not be interpreted as an accurate reflection
of ‘‘changes’’ in mobility rates.

Developments between 1977 and 1979-80

The general relationships observed in earlier worklife ta-
bles remained valid through the end of the 1970’s. Women
continued to have higher probabilities of labor force exit
and reentry than men. Consequently, men continued to have
longer worklives, on average, than women. (See table 1.)
Not surprisingly, the worklife expectancy of persons in the
labor force was higher than that of the inactive population.
The gap was small for young persons, but widened consid-
erably with age. Men who were in the labor force at age
50 could expect to work 4.8 years longer than other men
at that age. The comparable figure for women was 4.5 years.

Between 1977 and 1980, the cross-sectional participation
rates of men changed very little. (See table 2.) Those of
older teenagers and men above the age of 55 dropped slightly.
In contrast, the activity rates of women continued to climb.
There was an overall gain of more than 3 percentage points,


Table A-4. Working life table for women, 1979-80

Expectation of active and inactive life by current labor force status

Total population

Currently active in

Currently inactive

labor force
Age Life Active Inactive Active Inactive Active Inactive
so expectancy years. years years. years years years
remaining remaining remaining remaining remaining remaining
te te a agi
x ey ey el

oy @ @ ) ) @ a

16 62.9 293 33.6 304 32.9 287 34.3
7 619 28.8 334 296 32.4 28.0 33.9
18 61.0 28. 327 29.0 31.9 274 33.5
49 60.0 277 324 28.5 315 26.8 33.2
20 59.1 27.2 319 27.9 312 26.1 329
at 58.1 26.6 315 273 30.8 25.4 32.7
22 574 25.9 312 266 30.5 247 32.4
23 56.2 25.3 90.9 26.0 30.1 24.0 32.2
24 55.2 246 30.6 25.4 298 23.3 319
25 54.2 24.0 30.2 24.8 29.4 226 317
26 53.3 23.3 29.9 24.2 29.1 21.9 314
27 52.8 227 20.6 23.6 287 212 at
28 51.3 22.0 29.3 229 28.4 20.5 308
29 50.4 214 29.0 22.3 28.0 19.8 30.5
30 494 20.8 28.6 217 277 19.1 30.8
31 484 20.1 28.3 244 27a 18.5 30.0
32 478 19.8 28.0 20.5 27.0 178 29.7
33 46.5 189 a7 199 26.6 174 20.4
34 456 18.2 278 193 26.3 164 29.1
35 446 178 27.0 186 26.0 15.7 28.9
36 43.6 170 267 18.0 25.8 15.0 28.6
37 42.7 163 26.4 174 25.3 143 28.4
38 417 187 26.4 168 25.0 138 28.2
39 40.8 15.0 258 164 247 128 28.0
40 39.9 14.3 255 158 244 124 278
a1 38.9 13.7 25.2 149 24.0 143 27.8
42 38.0 13.0 25.0 143 23:7 106 274
43 7A 12.4 24,7 137 23.4 98 272
44 36.2 7 24.4 13.1 23.4 a4 27.0
45 35.2 1104 242 12.5 227 84 26.8
48 34.3 10.4 23.9 119 22.4 7 26.6
47 33.4 98 23.6 114 22.4 7A 263
43 32.5 92 23.3 108 217 65 26.0
43 31.6 86 23.0 1903 214 59 25.8
50 30.8 80 228 98 21.0 53 255
5t 29.9 74 22.5 92 20.6 48 25.1
52 29.0 69 22,2 87 203 42 24.8
53 28.2 63 29 82 19.9 37 244
54 27.3 58 216 77 196 33 24.0
56 26.5 52 22 72 19.3 29 23.6
56 25.6 47 209 67 189 25 23.1
87 248 43 206 63 19.5 2.2 226
58 24.0 38 202 58 182 19 22.4
58 23.2 34 198 54 178 17 218
60 22.4 3.0 19.4 50 47.4 15 20.9
6t 216 28 190 a7 169 13 20.3
62 20.8 23 18.5 44 16.4 14 19.7
ea 20.4 20 180 42 159 1.0 194
64 193 18 175 40 153 3 18.4
65 185 15 17.0 38 48 7 178
6 178 13 16.5 38 142 6 17.2
‘67 174 12 159 BA 18.7 5 165
68 16.4 10 153 33 13.1 4 158
69 156 2 147 31 128 4 153
70 149 8 142 30 120 a 147
a 143 7? 136 28 15 2 141
72 136 8 13.0 25 Wa a 135
73 139 $s 125 23 10.7 a 129
74 123 4 149 19 10.4 0 123
15 W147 3 114 13 10.4 ) 17

15


Table 4. Selected worklife indices by sex, 1970, 1977, and 1979-80, and by sex, race, and years. ‘ot schooling completed,
1979-80
{in years, unless otherwise indicated)
Men Women
Tolar 1979-80 Total 1979-80
Index Race ‘Schooling completed Face ‘Schooling completed
and age Les 15
1970 | 1977 | 1978-80 Blacks ry iat years || 1970 | 1977 | 1979-80 Blacks tess fa yous
white | and Whites | and
ome | moh | 14 | or teers | toh | to 14 | oF
school | years | more setool | years | more
Life expectancy:
At bith. e7.1}693| 70.0 | 707 | 65.3 | 70.0 | 700 | 700 |) 74.8} 77.1| 776 | 78.3 | 739 | 78 | 7.8 | 778
At age 25 451/463| 473 | 479 | 433 | 47.3 | 47-3 | 47.3 |/st9] 538] 542 | 54.7 | S10 | 54.2 | 54.2 | 542
At age 60 ye1/170| 175 | 176 | 165 | 175 | 17-5 | 175 || 20.8[ 222] 224 | 226 | 210 | 224 | 24 | 224
At age 65 -- 431/139] 142 | 143 | 138 | 142 | 142 | 142 |]17.01 183] 185 | 187 | 177 | 185 | 185 | 185
Worklife expectancy:
Atbich Ja7s|azg| a8 | 9a | azg | 246 | 2309 | 2ar.1 [223] 275) 294 | 207 | 27.4 | 422.3 | 7301 | 2349
At age 25. } 340] 334| 331 | 338 | 266 | 202 | 338 | 36% |} 190/230) 240 | 241 | 295 | 17.9 | 244 | 27.9
At age 60°: eo} 43} 44 | 45} 33 | 33 | 47] 63 |] 31] 25; 30] 30) 30) 23] 33 | 35
At age 65 Ll) as} ve] 23 | 23] vey ve} 24) 36 i] t4] rt] 15 | 16 | 18 | 12] 18) 18
Percant of life economically actve:®
fombith.....- ........ 48634547} 85.4 | 96.3 | S04 | 494 | 57.0 |-se7 |} 29.8] 35.7} 379 | 37.9 | 37.1 | 287 | 388 | 45.0
From age 25 731714| 70.0 | 706 | 661 | 617 | 7ES | 763 |/ 366/428] 44.3 | 441 | 46.1 | 33.0 | 450 | 515
From age 60 373253) 251 | 256 | 200 | 189 | 269 | 360 |] 149/413] 134 | 133 | 14.3 | 103 | 147 | 15.6
From age 65. . Joa7}137| we | 161 | 130 | 127 | 169 | 254 |] 82] Go] a1 | BO] 85} 65} 97) 97
Labor farce entries pe
Personbom..............-| 29] 30/ 39 ] 39) 43] 43 | 37 | 46 |] 46] 45] 55 | 56] 54 | SB] 56 | 56
Person age 25... f2] a1] 15 | 48] 18] 207 15 1 14 |[ 28] 277 30 | 30 | 31) 33] 32] 27
Expectected duration per ent
remaining:
From birth. 6.2... Jiao] 126] 99 | 102] 77] 80 | to8 | go |] 48] 61] 53 | 53] 51] 3a] 54] 62
From age 25... wale) 221 | 225 | 159 | 146 | 225 | 258 || 68} 86] 80 | BO} 76] 54) 76} 103
Voluntary exits remaining:
Atbirth. i a6] 27{ 36 | 36} 39] 40 | 36] 45 |] 45] 44) 54] 55) 54] 57] 57 | 47
Atage 252 fe] t7{ 2a | 29] 24] 27 | 23 | 22 |] 33] 33; 38 | 38) 37) 38] 40) 36
Porcent dying while active 96.3| 27.0] 27.4 7 [| a7 o | 26 | 34.0 |[ 108} os] 104 | 97 | 146 | 80 | 11.2 | 124
‘Population-based index. Ratio of worklife to life expectancy at the given age.
2years of work expected, if this tevel of education is attained.

Stated differently, although minority men could expect to
spend fewer years in the labor force, their additional periods
of inactivity were more likely to occur during prime working
ages.

The racial differentials in worklife expectancy were less
distinct for women, At most ages, it was minority rather
than white women who were the more likely to enter the
job market, if inactive. (See table 5.) However, they were
also the more likely to withdraw from economic activity.

One apparent difference by race involved the childrearing
years. Neither black nor white women showed strong ten-
dencies to withdraw from the job market to have children.
However, the data pointed toward a “‘fertility trough,”’ al-
though weak, in the labor force attachment of white women.
Contradicting the patterns observed at other ages, white
women in their 30’s showed a stronger propensity to leave
the labor force than did their minority counterparts, and
those 35 to 44 showed a stronger tendency to reenter. Al-
though the timing of midlife labor force withdrawal differed
by race, estimates of lifetime entries and exits for the two
groups are surprisingly similar. (See table 4.) On balance,
white women averaged 2.3 more years of worklife (29.7
years vs. 27.4 years), but this is largely a reflection of their
greater longevity.

Education. The new tables reveal a clear and direct re-
lationship between years of schooling and duration of labor
force involvement. As noted earlier, the size of the differ-
ential is probably understated. There has been no attempt
to estimate the impact of education on health and survival.

The mechanism whereby education affects worklife du-
ration is probably occupational selection. Although the link
between schooling and occupation is imperfect, many oc-
cupations are closed to persons who have not met minimum
educational requirements. Therefore, breaking the popula-
tion into three educational strata effectively breaks it into
clusters of occupations for which certain levels of training
may be necessary.

The new tables reveal a decided employment “‘payoff””
for time spent in school. During the prime working ages,
men with 15 or more years of schooling are roughly half
as likely to leave the job market, if active, as are those
without high school diplomas. (See table 4.) If inactive,
their probability of labor force entry is approximately twice
that of the least educated group. Over a lifetime, the most
educated class of men averages slightly more entries and
exits than do those without high school diplomas, but most
of this tumover occurs relatively early, while many indi-
yiduals are still in school. After age 25, these men can


Table B-1. Labor force accession rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80 _

(Annual rate per 1,000 population)

Face Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High school to 15 years
other high school 14 years or more
a) Q @ @ 5} @
Men
1619 2294 228.1 2q77 2098 - -
20-24 127.8 120.7 176.0 131.6 112.9 165.1
25-20 609 574 39.3 828 530 73
30-34 344 320 548 49.6 346 328
35.38 249 238 260 408 26.2 199
40-44 216 20.4 30.8 377 136 174
46-49 212 i983 363 307 207 177
50-54 235 23.1 278 288 260 186
55-59 202 298 247 343 205 242
60-64 445 449 394 50.8 439 36.2
65-68 548 Bat 608 548 55.8 554
70-74 429 426 45.1 447 408 36.6
784 36 38 3 44 33 re
Women
1619 230.9 2385 254.0 2223 - -
2028 1564 4520 198.3 i6a5 1536 141.9
25-28 417.1 1148 1316 441.8 1202 1084
30-34 101.7 102.4 98.0 1198 106.4 282
35.39 296 a4 779 942 94.1 80.7
40-44 715 719 e73 759 747 e14
45-49 584 879 627 602 603 45.4
50-54 508 49.9 58.2 55.4 522 429
85-59 avy 407 50.1 434 424 407
60-64 388 384 456 37.0 424 35.3
65-69 347 340 412 325 36.8 318
70-74 208 303 247 274 343 31.9
78+ 3.0 34 24 28 38 a5

2


Worklife Estimates:
Effects of Race and Education }

U.S. Department of Labor
Bureau of Labor Statistics
February 1986

Bulletin 2264



exact age 16. This increased precision has had a minor impact on estimates
of worktife values at birth and in the early teens, but the effect is imper-
ceptible at later ages.

Shirley J. Smith, “Labor force participation rates are not the relevant
factor,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1983, pp. 36-38.

‘Although it would be useful to examine changes in the labor force
entry and exit rates of older persons to learn more about the retirement
process, the expanded sample has rendered such comparisons impossible.

Tt captures far more gross movement than was evident in earlier tables.
For all men, the 1977 study indicated an average of 3.0 labor force entries
per lifetime; the 1979~80 tables set this average at 3.9. The earlier tables
indicated an average of 2.7 voluntary withdrawals, while this set shows a
figure of 3.6. The picture for women is quite similar. Lifetime entries were
estimated at 4.5 in 1977. With the more sensitive modified sample, the
estimate for 1979-80 was 5.5. Voluntary withdrawals were estimated at
4.4 per lifetime in 1977, 5.4 at the end of the decade.


affluent groups, further widening the worklife gap associated
with schooling. Thus, in the final phase of the work cycle,
the most educated group remain active 1.6 years longer than
high school graduates and 3 years longer than those who
never finished high school.

The work patterns of women vary more widely than those
of men, Consequently, education has a stronger potential
impact on female worklife behavior than on that of males.
The new tables show this effect to be the greatest during
the prime working ages. Between the ages of 20 and 39,
women face fundamental tradeoffs among schooling, child-
rearing, and employment. The opportunity costs of child-
rearing increase with job skills. During this phase of life,
the woman with 15 years of schooling or more is likely to
work nearly a year longer than the high school graduate,
and 4.5 years longer than her classmate who left high school
early. The differential remains, and in fact widens, through-
out midlife. During the next 20 years of her life cycle, the
highly educated woman is likely to work 2.9 years longer
than the high school graduate, and 5.9 years longer than
the nongraduate. The tables suggest that the relationship
between education and retirement patterns is looser for women
than for men. As with men, the most educated show the
least inclination to retire early. (See table 5.) However, once
they have done so, these women are less likely than men
with comparable training to reverse their decision. (As ev-
idence, compare accession rates of the most educated men
and women in table 5.)

Conclusions

This latest worklife study, based on a larger sample of
individuals than had been used previously, has enabled us

‘See Shirley J. Smith, ‘New worklife estimates refiect changing pro-
file of labor force,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1982, pp. 15-20;
Shirley I. Smith, Tables of Working Life: The Increment-Decrement Model,
Bulletin 2135 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982); and Shirley J. Smith, New
Worklife Estimates, Bulletin 2157 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1982).

?See David M. Nelson, “The use of worklife tables in estimates of
lost earning capacity,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1983, pp. 30-31;
John L. Finch, '*Worklife estimates should be consistent with known
labor force participation," Monthly Labor Review, June 1982, pp. 34-36;
Kenneth J. Boudreaux, “*A further adjustment needed to estimate lost
eaming capacity,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1983, pp. 30~31; and
George C. Alter and William E. Becker, “Estimating lost future eamings
using the new worklife tables," Monthly Labor Review, February 1985,
pp. 39-42.

3 We now estimate David Nelson's index of median years to final re-
tirement. Following a suggestion by George Alter and William Becker,
we also make assumptions of retirement beyond age 75 explicit. It is
assumed that na one enters the labor force after age 75, and that re-
maining years of activity are proportional to the labor force participa-
tion rates of CPS respondents, age 76 to 78.

‘The sample for 1979 included 56,000 potential households. Tt was

FOOTNOTES:

to examine two new dimensions of worklife behavior. It has
also provided more complete measures of movement into
and out of the labor force than were previously possible.

During the period between 1977 and 1979-80, the work-
life expectancy of adult men held relatively steady, while
that of women continued to edge upward, For both sexes,
there were indications that many retirement decisions were
being reversed. However, because the model does not mea-
sure hours of labor force involvement, the workyears re-
maining to older persons may in fact be less ‘‘intense’’ now
than they were at the beginning of the decade.

Race seems to have more bearing on the worklife patterns
of men than of women. The tables confirmed that minority
men are both more likely to leave the labor force and less
likely to reenter than are whites. The racial differential for
women affects timing of movement more than it does overall
volume.

The more important factor affecting worklife patterns of
women is educational attainment. Using the categories dis-
played here, we find that women appear to reap twice as
much ‘‘payoff’” from additional schooling as do men. Their
additional training appears to drive up the opportunity costs
of alternative activities, encouraging longer and more con-
tinuous careers for those who have pursued higher education.

Opportunity costs also appear to play an important role
in the retirement process. For both sexes, higher education
is associated with later retirement. Among the men who do
Tetire, the most educated are most prone to reenter the work
force. The swifter, more permanent retirement pattern of
persons without high school diplomas may be due, in part,
to health differentials by educational attainment, mentioned
but not fully controlled for in this study. o

temporarily expanded to 65,000 households in 1980, and now contains a
potential of 60,000 units

*Because many respondents appear in more than one of these monthly
matches, the number of individuals included in the pooled sample is con-
siderably less than 255,000.

The multistate model is equipped to deal with a variety of different
“‘transitions”” simultaneously. It could incorporate data on moves between
occupations, if those data were reliable. However, interoccupational mo-
bility has proven difficult to measure accurately, and the oumber of cat-
egories involved would hopelessly fragment the sample, We hope eventually
to develop a few occupational clusters, characterized by unique behavioral
patterns. Only in this way can the model realistically control for occupation.

7 National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United
States, 1979, vol. Il, section 6, ‘Life Tables," DHHS Publication No.
(pas)84—1101 (U.S. Government Printing Office, 1984); National Center
for Health Statistics, Vital Statistics of the United States, 1980, vol. II,
section 6, “Life Tables,”” pitts Publication No. (pHs)84~1104 (U.S. Gov-
ernment Printing Office, 1984); and unpublished tables from the National
Center for Health Statistics, Public Health Service.

*The internal calculations of the model naw begin at age 13, when by
definition all persons are outside the labor force. Entries and exits at 14
and 15 are recorded to yield a more complete count of the labor force at


Table B-8. Total labor force separations per 1,000 active persons by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80

Race ‘Years of schooling completed

Sex and age Total whit Black and Less than High school to 18 years
e other high schoot 14 years or more

ay @ 8) @ ©) {6}

Men

16-19 2776 2629 420.2 2776 - -
20-24 i208 1125 186.3 143.8 1076 170.4
25-29 566 526 808 908 508 60.1
50-34 36.7 335 65.0 584 988 20.9
35-38 30.0 277 52.0 B24 30.0 218
40-44 30.8 2868 49.7 513 273 26.0
45-49 38.5 341 56.1 50.4 36.0 283
50-54 50.1 433 668 682 48.4 364
55-59 989 963 127.2 1336 918 ne
60-64 2925 2275 2865 298.8 2256 1608
65-69 337.9 990.4 386.7 405.0 226.2 2482
70-74 281.8 3603 374.2 443.1 367.6 2772
B+ 1,000.0 1,000.0 1,000.0 4,000.0 4,000.0 7,000.0

Women

16-19 3548 936.8 523.2 496.5 - -
20-24 2276 2188 289.8 360.5, 228.4 1908
25-29 1938 184.0 Te44 300.3 191.9 1533
34 154.5 187.0 140.7 PATS 160.3 121.4
35-39 128.5 1201 i248 190.0 133.0 94.9
40-44 111.2 109.6 149.8 157.1 114.4 78.3
45-48 309.7 109.1 1128 145.8 1343 705
50-54 1147 113.8 1226 183.2 1118 865
55-59 1615 149.9 186.1 192.0 140.0 139
60-64 2535 252.4 2628 2758 249.4 298.6
65-69 339.4 333.2 393.9 3623 395.4 3227
70-74 3045 3774 428.0 4174 380.3 317.4
75+ 4000.0 1000.0 1000.0 10000 1000.0 1000.0

28


Table B-7. Labor force accessions per 1,000 inactive persons by sex, age, race, and schooling completed,

1979-80

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High school to 15 years
" other high schoot 14 years or more
ay @) (3) @) 6) 6)
Men
16-19 696.1 620.1 525.8 506.0 - >
20-26 666.4 872.6 649.0 B11 7196 685.2
25-28 681.4 693.1 646.8 4772 7219 783.3
30-34 847.1 558.1 5206 330.1 5683 202.2
35-39 407.1 4443 306.9 271.9 403.0 787.2
40-44 297.8 327.9 208.7 235.1 285.6 539.1
45-49 2177 2185 2132 728 233.2 250.8
50-54 i688 175.0 138.8 123.3 213.3 260.9
55-59 120.9 129.0 76.4 93.4 142.8 1746
60-64 886 92.0 629 ata 93.7 103.8
65-69 753 75.1 764 68s 787 95.6
70-74 $2.0 51.8 64.5 51.9 $0.2 54.0
B+ 39 42 10 47 a7 12
Women
16-19 5275 564.1 409.3 425.4 - -
20-24 4548 4575 462.1 320.1 487.4 568.3
25-28 2418 394.1 2076 268.3 342.7 422.0
30.94 292.3 2893 320.0 2208 3033 3198
35.39 23 27a 248.0 185.0 2873 3302
40-44 2217 226.3 189.1 143.0 2372 2873
45-49 164.1 163.9 165.1 196.2 i704 199.8
50-54 122.7 120.4 1417 1024 127.4 1553
55.59 att 79.0 100.3 678 358 906
60-64 564 35.0 687 48.4 640 55.4
65-69 418 409 50.1 377 479 385
70-74 333 339 27.4 29.7 38.8 36.2
75+ 34 32 22 26 44 37

27


group in the population being analyzed contributes a single
year of life to the synthetic whole. It is possible to derive
group-specific estimates only if the group is closed to entry
and exit. If its members remain so classified for life, the
experiences of older persons can be used to derive a syn-
thetic ‘‘future’’ for the young.

In the new tables, the population is subdivided by sex,
race, and educational attainment. While subject to misclas-
sification, each of these traits is normally fixed during the
adult years. Sex and race are particularly stable, and beyond
the mid 20’s, education—especially as classified here—is
also relatively fixed. Only persons who already have some
advanced training are likely to continue schooling, and at-
tainment levels, once achieved, cannot be lost. Because
these groupings are closed, they satisfy the constraints of
the model. And because they relate closely to labor force
behavior, they are substantively meaningful controls.

The specific categories of tabulation have been dictated
by sample size and population distribution. The two racial
categories displayed are white (88 percent of the sample)
and blacks and others (12 percent). A separate set of tables
details years of schooling completed, using the categories
of Jess than high school (about 20 percent of the sample),
high school graduate to 14 years (about 52 percent of the
sample), and 15 years or more (about 28 percent). At older
ages, the sample of highly educated persons is very thin,
particularly for women. This has made the more conven-
tional cutoff of a college degree impossible to implement.

Race. Because the two components of worklife estimates,
mortality and labor force behavior, are Known to vary by
race, the estimates themselves must also do so if appropri-
ately tabulated. The new tables based on 1979-80 data now
allow us to quantify the lifetime relationship between race
and labor force involvement. As might be expected, the
impact is striking, particularly for men.

Consider first the probabilities of moving into and out of
the labor force. Among all men ages 16 to 64 who are
outside the job market, whites are more likely to enter than
are their minority counterparts. (See table 5.) Among those
already in the labor force, blacks and others are the more
likely to withdraw. The pool of inactive minority members
is thus disproportionately large and contributes to a high
incidence of labor force mobility at all ages.

The resuit is that minority men are estimated to average
4,3 labor force entries and 3.9 withdrawals per lifetime,
while white men average 3.9 entries and 3.6 withdrawals.
(See table 4.) Based on the observations for the reference
period, the worklife expectancy of blacks and others was
nearly 7 years shorter than that of whites (32.9 years vs.
39.8 years). Minority men spent an average of just 50 per-
cent of their lives in labor force activity, compared with 56
percent for whites. This difference was all the more striking
because whites tended to live longer, allowing them greater
potential for both a longer worklife and post-retirement lei-
sure. Far more blacks and others were likely to die before
retirement (31.7 percent as against 26.7 percent for whites).

Table 3. Chariges in life and worklife expectancies by sex, selected years, and changes from 1977 to 1979-80
Inactive years Percant of
Life expactancy Worklite expectancy (teat population) IMeepan active {ate of
Workiite modal, me to
All persons Workers
‘sex, and year at at ape From From From From expectancies
bieth 20 | sein | an au ue birth birth age 20 at age 20
won
Conventional mode!
1900 2... 463 | 422 | 324 ava | 304 142 a4 693 29.6 Q
e2 | 486 | 381 307 | 443 234 7A 82.3 48 0}
5 | 49 | 41s | ata | at 24.0 78 63.4 847 a
668 | 496 | 414 49 | 42.9 25.7 ar 15 82.5 10)
74 | a6 | arg | 373 | 380 m4 123 $6.3 752 10]
693 | 513 | 379 | 368 | 373 HS 45 7 TT ry
7.0 | 516 | 388 | 368 | 374 312 15.0 55.4 no ‘)
7 5 ) 0 1 - 5 7 -7 o)
Women
Conventional model:
i ne 3 | 438 6a i) io) 42.0 fc) 13.0 13.7 ®
7 | 504 | 121 19 a 53.6 85 18.4 236 30.0
mo | 337 | 154 145 ic} 55.9 39.2 ag 270 35.0
ad 55.7 | 20.4 186 | 373 52.0 art 275 4 45.0
ve | sy | 228 | 213 | 224 524 38.4 298 2.8 Pal
74 586 | 275 | 260 | 267 49.7 326 35.7 aad 70.7
76} 584 aoa | a2 | 27a 48.2 319 37.9 6.0 29
Change, 1977 to 1979-80 5 5 1.9 12 1.2 =15 =F 22 16 32
'Not appiicable.
2Data not available.



Table A-4. Working life table for women, 1979-80—Continued

Person years iived in each status

Person years lived in each status

uring age x beyond exact age x
age Total Active Inactive Total Active Inactive
oLe 2 wi te al
x L x v x ly T x * Tx
(24) (25) (26) 7) (28) 9)
16 98,394 47,048 51,285 6,186,267 2,880,000 3,908,267
17 98,281 52,902 45,379 6,080,934 2,832,952 3,256,982
18 98,225 55,537 42,688 5,991,659 2,780,050 3,211,603
19 98,166 58,798 39,368 5,893,428 2,724,513 3,168,815
20 98,107 61,440 26,667 6,795,262 2,665,715, 3,129,547
24 98,047 63.281 24,768 5,697,155 2,604,275 3,092,880
22 97,986 64,423 33.563 5,599,108 2,540,994 3,058,114
23 97,925 64,991 92,934 5,501,122 2,476,572 3,024,580
24 97,862 65,185 32,677 5,403,197 2,441,581 2,991,616
25 97,798 65,105 32,694 5,305,335 2,346,395 2,958,940
28 97,735 64,695 33,040 5,207,536 2,281,290 2,926,246
7 97,669 64,141 33,628 5,109,801 2,216,595 2,893,206
28 97,603 63,700 33,903 5,012,132 2.152.454 2,859,678
29 97,834 63,447 34,087 4,914,529 2,088,754 2,825,775
30 97,463 63,362 34,101 4,816,995 2,025,307 2,791,688
31 97,389 63,356 34,033 4.719.532 1,961,045 2,757,587
32 97.311 63,389 33,922 4,622,143 1,898,588 2,723,565
3a 97,297 63,484 93,743 4,524,832 1,835,199 2,689,633
34 97,138 63,687 39,451 4,427,605 771,715 2,655,890
35 97,041 64,027 33,014 4,330,467 1,708,028 2,622,439
36 96,935 64,449 32,486 4,233,426 1,644,001 2,580,425
a7 96.820 64,891 31,929 4,136,491 1,579,552 2,556,939
38 96,694 65,265 31,429 4,039,674 1,514,661 2,525,010
39 96,556 65,490 31,086 3.942.977 1,449,398 2,493,581
40 96,404 5,614 30,790 9,846,421 1,383,906 2,462,518
41 96,238 85,575 30,663 3,750,017 1,318,291 2.431.726
42 96,055, 85,252 30,803 3,653,779 1,252,716 2,401,063
43 95,854 64,732 31,122 3,887,724 1,187,465 2,370,259
44 95,634 64,094 31,540 3,461,870 1,122,733 2,339,137
45 95,392 63,293 32,099 3,366,236 1,058,638 2,307,508
46 95,129 62,281 32,848 3,270,844 995,346 2,275,498
a7 94,840 61.120 33,720 3,175,715 993,065 2,242,650
48 94,525 59,902 34,628 3,080,875 871,945 2,208,930
49 94,180 58,627 35,559 2,986,350 812,043 2,174,307
50 93,802 57,330 36,472 2,892,170 753,416 2,198,754
5t 93,389 56,027 37,362 2,798,368 696,086 2,102,282
52 92,941 54,504 38,347 2,704,979 640,060 2,084,919
53 92,457 52,992 39,465, 2/612,038 585,466 2,026,572
54 91,938 54,251 40.687 2,549,581 592,474 1,987,107
55 91,383 49,268 42,115 (2,427,643 481,229 1,946,420
56 90,789 46,895, 43,804 2,336,260 431,955 1,904,205
57 90,150 44,088 46,064 2,245,471 385,060 1,860,414
58 89,461 40,988 48,473 2,158,321 340,973 1,814,348
69 88,713 37672 51,041 2,085,860 299,986 1,765,874
60 87,902 34,087 53,835 4,977,147 262,813 1,714,834
61 87,022 30,282 56,740 4,089,245 228,246 1,660,999
62 86,074 26.549 59,525, 4,802,223 197,964 1,604,259
6a 85,058 23,077 61,981 4,716,149 471,415, 1,544,734
64 83,978 20,081 63,927 1,631,091 148,338 1,482,753
65 02,832 17,485 65,347 1,547,119 128,286 1,418,827
6 81,615, 15,250 66,365 1,464,281 110,804 1,353,480
e7 80,319 13,246 67,073 1,382,666. 95,551 1,287,115
68 78,930 41,537 67,393 1,802,347 82,305, 1,220,042
69 77,435 10,196 67,239 1,223,417 70,767 1,152,650
70 75,825 9,128 66,696 1,145,982 60,572 1,085,410
a 74,096 8,210 85,886 1,070,157 51,443, 1,018,714
72 72.244 7,402 64,842 996.061 43,233 952,828
73 70,269 6,722 63,547 923,817 35,831 887,986
74 68,170 6161 62,009 853,548 28,109 824,439
75 65,946 5,492 60,514 785,378 22,948 762,430



Table B-4. Net labor force mobility rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80

{Annual rate per 1,000 population)

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High school to 15 years
ie other high school 14 years or more
a) 2@ @ 4 6 ©

Men

16-19 58.6 54.8 - -
20-24 30.1 284 215 387
25.29 93 88 58 167
30-34 0 4 19 32
35-39 33 -24 -29 “14
49-44 -70 64 -58 87
45-49 “11.8 “118 “11.2 92
50-54 “19.6 -188 “165 -153
55.59 45.9 443 43.3 “3741
60-64 71.4 714 -76.1 68.5
65-69 -37.0 -39.0 -38.5 48.2
70-74 -24.0 24.4 -272 40.3
75+ -75.2 “786 82.4 “1194
Women

16419 464 48 - -
20-24 100 59 24 12
25-29 38 60 43 -56
30-34 ‘3 1.0 24 3
36.39 368 53 46 a9
40-44 -38 -29 -37 <1
45-49 122 127 138 -90
50-54 “16-4 167 “137 196
55-59 -318 318 -29.1 41.8
60-64 40.2 -398 -41.9 51.4
65-69 22.6 “21.9 23.9 27.0
70-74 =103 ~97 “105 -5.9
75+ 38.8 38.4 83.0 56.5



Contents

Revised worklife tables reflect 1979-80 experience

Technical appendix... 0.0.6... 0c cece ce een eee nee ene nena n entree enters

Tables of working life:

Al
A2
A3
A4
ASS
AG

Working life table for men, 1979-80
Life and worklife expectancies for men by race, 1979-80 .
Worklife expectancies for men by schooling completed, 1979-80
Working life table for women, 1979-80..............00005
Life and worklife expectancies for women by race, 1979-80. .
Worklife expectancies for women by schooling completed, 1979-80 ...........0.00ceeeeeee

Rates of labor force mobility:

B-l
B2

B3

B4

B-5

Bo

B7

B8

Labor force accession rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80 ...........
Total labor force separation rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed,

1979-80 ..
Voluntary labor force separation rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed,

1979-80
Net labor force mobility rates by sex, age, race, and schooling completed,

1979-80 ee eee reer ee bn eee e eee E este nents
Labor force accessions per 1,000 persons alive at beginning of age interval by sex,

age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80... 2.2.0.0... cece ca cce cece ceceveusasesees
Total labor force separations per 1,000 persons alive at beginning of age interval

by sex, age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80... 00.00... cc cece cececeveeseseee
Labor force accessions per 1,000 inactive persons by sex, age, race, and schooling

completed, 1979-80 .
Total labor force separations per 1,000 active persons by sex, age, race, and

schooling completed, 1979-80
Remaining labor force accessions per person entering age interval by sex, age,

race, and schooling completed, 1979-80... 0.0.0... ce ccc cece eee eee cece eee ence eee
Remaining voluntary labor force separations per person entering age interval by sex,

age, race, and schooling completed, 1979-80. 0.200.000. 00. cece cece cece e eee terse eens

22

23

25

26

27

28

29

30


Tabie A-1. Working life table for men, 1979-80—Continued

Stationary population living
in each status at exact age x,
per 100,000 persons born

Number of status transfers within stationary
population during age interval x to x-+1

Labor force status Labor Voluntary Deaths by labor force status

age force labor force

Total Active inactive entries exits Total Active Inactive

. a, \ ha ai 4d ad 4d
x ', iy io in ty i 19, 13,

(18) (17) (18) 19) (20) en 22) 23)
16 97,923 46,923 50,900 28,496 18,694 123 85 58
7 97,700 56,660 41,040 21,827 18,474 145 87 58
18 97,555, 59,926 37,629 20,534 15,272 161 103 58
19 97,994 65,085 32,309 18,645 13,809 172 119 53
20 97,222 69,801 27,42) 16,354 12,188 183 136 48
at 97,039 73,833 23,206 13,992 10,338 194 151 43
22 96,845 77,335 19,510 12,016 8.962 200 163 37
23 96,644 80,226 16,418 10,466 8,023 201 169 32
24 96,443 82,499 13,944 8,967 6,930 198 m1 26
25 96,246 84,366 11,880 7618 5,927 194 172 22
26 96,052 85,885 10,167 6.562 5,140 189 ita) 19
27 95,863 87,137 8,726 5.655 4,637 185 170 16
28 95.678 87,985 7,893 4.931 4,259 183 169 14
29 95,495 288,489 7,006 4384 3,890 181 168 13
30 95.314 88,815, 6,499 3,906 3,631 180 168 12
31 95,134 88,922 6212 3,544 3368 180 168 12
32 94,954 88,930 6.024 3,201 3,930 181 170 4
33 94,773 88,932 5,841 2.900 2,776 186 175 14
34 94,587 88,882 5,708 2,767 2,689 193 181 12
35 94,394 88,808 5586 2,625 2,654 202 190 12
36 94,192 88,589 5,603 2.470 2.568 214 201 13
a7 93,977 88,282 5,685 2,301 2,359 227 213 4
38 93,751 88,022 5,728 2,183 2.208 243 228 18
39 93,508 87.649, 5/859 2122 2,286 261 245 7
40 93,247 87,241 6,008 2.044 2,249 28a 264 19
41 92,963 (86,767 6,196 2,005 2,336 306 285 21
42 92.658 86,152 6,506 2,084 2,413 334 310 24
4a 92,924 85,493, 6.831 2.369 366 338 28
44 91,957 84,768 7,189 2.288 401 369 32
45 91,556 83,997 7,559 1,853 2,308 439 402 37
46 91,118 83.141 7977 1.875 2412 483 437 4a
47 90,637 82,166 8,471 1,917 2,481 528 477 51
48 90,109 81,125 8.984 1,937 2.582 579 520 60
49 89,530 73,961 9569 1,971 2,685 637 566 7
50 88,893 78,680 10,213 1,992 2744 698 615 83
61 88,195 77,314 10,881 2,020 2,833 787 669 98
52 87,428 75,834 11,598 2,085 2.981 828 714 114
53 86,601 74,203 12,398 2,069 3,190 892 759 134
54 85,709 72,823 13,986 2,090 3,440 959 801 157
55 84,749 70,171 14,578 2,168 3,741 1,028 840 186
56 83,724 67,759 16,965 2,288 4374 4,099 876 223
57 82,624 64,791 17,833 2.976 5,298 4,181 905 276
58 81,443 60,983 20,480 6,002 1,278 925 347
59 80,170 56,527 23,643 6,849 1,373 932 441
60 78,798 51,383 7A 2,800 7.778 1,477 917 861
61 77,321 45,493 31,828 3,095. 8,130 1,582 879 703
62 75,738 39,578 36,160 3,415 8,056 1,686 830 857
83 74,052 34107 39,945 3,604 7,843 1,788 772 4,016
64 72,264 23,096 43,168 3,713 7,411 1,888 72 4,176
6 70.376 24,686 45,690 3,830 6,739 1,985 655 4,330
66 68,301 21,421 47,270 3,812 6,971 2,081 610 1,471
67 66.310 18,351 47,959 3,627 5,340 2,184 576 1,607
68 64,126 16,062 48,064 3,428 4,707 2,294 $52 1,742
69 61,833 14,282 47,601 3,152 4.202 2,407 534 1,874
70 59,426 12,649 46,777 2,806 3,834 2,518 S14 2,004
ral 56,908 14,107 45,801 2,486 3,348 2619 491 2,128
72 54,288 9,756 44,532 2,220 2,982 2,703 467 2,236
73 51585 8,528 43,057 2123 2772 2,764 440 2,825
74 48,821 7439 41,382 1,695 2,428 2,807, 407 2,400
75 46013 6,298 39.715 1178 1,654 2,835 373 2,462



Table A-2. Life and worklife expectancles for men by race, 1979-80

(Average years remaining)

White men

Black and other men

Expectation of active life by

Expectation of active life by

Lite labor force status Lie labor fores status
Age expectancy Total Curentty | Currently | ©*Pectancy Tota Currently | Currently
active inactive active inactive
aya ie . or aye a
x e* 8 x ox x
a) @ @) (a) 6) @ ” 8)
16 56.1 39.8 406 30.4 514 33.6 34.3 a2
17 5.2 30.4 40.0 38.4 50.4 33.2 33.9 92.7
18 543 38.8 39.4 a78 49.5 32.8 39.5 32.2
19 53.3 3a2 38.8 374 4a 32.4 33.0 a7
20 52.4 375 384 36.4 478 319 32.4 314
2t 515 36.9 37.4 36.6 46.8 313 318 30.4
22 50.6 36.1 36.6 349 459 30.7 ant 29.7
23 49.7 95.4 35.8 34.1 45.0 30.0 30.4 29.0
24 488 34.6 35.0 33.2 444 29.3 297 28.3
25 479 33.8 342 32.4 433 23.6 28.9 275
26 470 32.9 33.3 315 424 279 28.2 26.6
a7 461 32.4 32.4 30.6 ANS 24 27.4 25.8
28 45.2 312 316 29.7 40.7 26.4 26.8 25.0
29 442 30.3 30.7 28.7 39.8 25.6 258 244
30 43.3 295 20.8 ar7 39.0 24.8 25.0 23.2
3} 42.4 28.6 28.9 26.7 38.1 24.0 24.2 223
32 414 277 28.0 25.7 372 23.2 23.4 213
33 40.5 26.8 24 247 36.4 22.3 227 20.3
34 29.6 25.9 26.2 23.7 35.5 215 219 193
35 38.6 25.0 26.3 22.7 347 20.7 2s4 182
36 ar7 241 24.4 217 33.8 19.9 20.4 7A
37 36.8 232 23.5 20.7 33.0 19.1 196 16.0
38 35.9 223 22.6 19.6 32.2 18.4 189 15.0
39 34.9 21.4 217 186 31.8 178 181 142
40 34.0 20.5 20.8 175 30.5 168 174 134
4 33.1 196 20.0 16.4 29.7 16.0 167 126
42 32.2 187 191 15.4 289 15.8 160 119
43 313 178 183 143 28.1 146 152 44
44 30.4 169 17.4 13.2 273 138 145 10.4
45 295 16.4 166 121 26.5 13.1 138 97
46 28.6 18.2 158 112 258 124 13.4 89
47 278 144 149 10.3 25.0 116 124 a1
48 26.9 135 144 a4 243 10.9 17 73
49 26.1 127 13.4 a8 23.5 102 11.0 65
80 25.2 1.9 126 78 22.8 95 10.4 a7
51 24.4 14 148 TA 22.4 88 97 49
52 23.6 103 144 63 215 at 94 43
58 22.8 98 103 56 208 74 84 37
54 22.0 87 96 50 202 68 78 32
56 218 ao 89 44 19.5 64 72 28
56 20.5 72 82 38 18.9 55 66 25
s7 197 65 75 3.3 183 49 60 22
58 19.0 58 69 29 WT 43 56 19
a9 183 52 63 25 174 37 4 18
60 178 4s 58 22 165 33 47 16
63 169 40 54 20 159 29 44 15
62 162 35 5.0 18 15.4 25 44 14
63 186 a4 47 15 149 22 38 13
64 149 27 44 13 143 20 a6 12
65 143 23 42 12 13.8 128 35 14
88 137 24 40 +0 133 1.6 a4 10
&7 13.4 18 38 8 12.8 14 aa 2
68 125 16 36 7 12.3 13 a2 7
69 119 14 35 5 118 12 3.0 6
70 114 12 33 4 11.4 10 29 4
7 109 14 34 3 109 2 27 3
72 10.4 rc) 29 2 105 7 28 2
73 a9 8 26 4 10.0 8 23 a
4 94 7 23 A 96 8 18 cy
75 ag 8 18 a) 92 3 13 0

* Mortality rates used reflect racial differentiais in survival.



Preface

This bulletin on new estimates of working life for men
and women continues the BLS series begun in 1950,
and incorporates methodological improvements intro-
duced in 1982, It contains, in addition to a discussion of
changes in worklife expectancy since 1977—first pub-
lished in the March 1982 Monthiy Labor Review—
updated and expanded worklife tables for 1980, including
the effects of race and educational attainment on worklife
expectancy.

The author, Shirley J. Smith, is a demographic statis-
tician in the Office of Employment and Unemployment
Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. This bulletin

js based on a paper she and Francis W. Horvath, an
economist with the Bureau, presented at the 1984
annual meeting of the Population Association of
America, Minneapolis, Minnesota. Robert J. McIntire
and Jeannette Montgomery, of the Data Services Group,
assisted in the preparation of the tables. The text for this
pulletin is reprinted from the August 1985 Monthly
Labor Review, pages 23-30, and includes some data
corrections.

Material in this publication is in the public domain
and, with appropriate credit, may be reproduced with-
out permission.


Table 8-2. Total labor force separation rates by sex, age, race, and achoollng completed, 1979-80

(Annual rate per 1,000 population)

Race Years of schoaling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High schoo! to 18 years
other high school 14 years: or more
ty ics] @ @) cS] ©

16-19 170.8 198.3 202.5 162.5 > -
2024 976 923 135.7, 106.8 90.8 120.4
26-29 516 48.3 TTA 75 47.1 $4.8
3034 344 315 58.4 49.7 365 29.6
35-39 28.2 26.2 45.9 44.5 28.1 213
40-44 28.6 26.6 42.3 43.1 25.4 24.2
45-49 32.9 B11 6B 414 31.9 26.8
50-54 43.1 ag 53.5 $3.1 425 33.8
55-59 75.0 741 85.3 84.6 72.8 Bs
80-64 115.8 116.4 106.4 110.7, 120.0 104.7,
6569 918 93.0 79.0 BOB 94.3 103.6
70-74 6.9 67.1 640 60.8 68.2 79.0
7S+ 738 825 48.3 6B. 85.8 120.4
Women

18-19 193.5 193.7 193.5, 208.3 - ~
20-24 1484 146.4 166.5 170.7 151.5 143.2
25-29 120.9 120.8 423.3 144.5 124.5 114.0
30-94 100.7 101.4 97.6 118.4 104.1 87.9
35-39 88.0 86.2 855 93.3 89.4 rare
A044 76.3 749 77.2 77.0 784 615
45-49 70.6 70.5 70.0 TV 739 544
50-54 67.2 665 72.2 70.3 65.9 626
55-59 738 726 63.0 69.9 72 82.5
eOe4+ 73.0 773 $8.2 848 B43 86.7
65-89 57.3 552 70.0 48.8 62.9 58.5
70-74 40.1 40.0 37.8 367 “48 378
7+ 413 412 447 29.8 $6.2 59.9



Worklife Estimates:
Effects of Race and Education

U.S. Department of Labor
William E. Brock, Secretary

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
February 1986

Bulletin 2254

For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office Washington, D.C. 20402


Table B-10. Remaining voluntary labor force separations per person entering age interval by sex, age, race, and schooling
completed, 1979-80

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total white Black and Less than High school to 15 years
other high school 14 years: or more
0) @) @) (4) @) @

Men

16-19 34 34 3.8 38 - -
20-24 28 27 3.0 3.2 27 28
(26-29 23 23 24 27 23 22
34 21 21 2.0 24 21 2.0
35-39 19 2.0 1.8 22 19 19
40-44 18 19 1.6 20 18 1.8
45-49 17 18 15 18 18 V7
50-54 17 1? 14 1? VW? V7
55-59 1.6 16 1.3 1.5 1.6 16
60-64 1.3 14 11 12 14 15
65-69 32 1.0 a 8 1.0 12
70-74 2 7 5 6 7 ao
75+ a A oO A a a
Women

16-19 53 53 53 55 - =
20-24 45 45 45 47 47 43
25-29 38 38 37 38 40 3.6
30-34 3.2 3.2 34 3.2 34 3.0
35-39 27 27 27 26 29 26
40-44 23 23 23 24 24 23
45-49 19 19 19 18 21 2.0
50-54 1.6 16 1.6 14 17 18
55-59 1.3 14 1.4 11 15 15
60-64 1.0 10 11 8 1.2 1.2
65-69 7 a a 6 & 8
70-74 5 & 5 4 & &
754+ oO Oo mt) oO a a

30


Table 8-5. Labor force accessions per 1,000 persons

completed, 1979-60

live at beginning of age interval by sex, age, race, and schooling

Race Years of schooling completed
Sex and age Total White Black and Less than High school to 18 years
other high schoo! 14 years or more
1) (2) @) @) ©) 3)
Men
16-19 e148 389.9 1,108.0 836.7 - -
20-24 6256 600.7 8744 6548 558.9 a2i4
25-29 3028 284.0 443.1 4118 2635 3547
30-04 1712 169.3 2718 2468 4720 163.1
36.39 1287 4183 178 2028 1255 99.0
40-46 107.0 1014 1820 186.7 973 86.5
45-48 1043 95.1 1722 1516 1022 873
50-54 1182 4134 1392 1408 R71 208
55-59 4414 144.4 1173 7658 1426 1170
60-64 2110 2137 1819 2416 208.2 1719
65-69 263.8 250.8 2766 253.7 2585 256.2
70-74 490.7 teo9 ‘98.0 499.0 1820 18
B+ 34 36 3 aq 34 1.0
Women
1619 958.4 952.9 10149 e884 - -
20.24 790.7 758.9 ‘989.2 2413 766.9 708.6
25-29 584.4 3733 6583 708.1 6002 540.9
30-34 5073 5113 488.1 5977 531.2 4402
35-98 446.9 4560 2876 4696 469.1 402.2
40-44 356.0 358.3 3336 3777 a717 305.6
45-49 290.1 2875 300.4 343.4 209.4 225.4
50-54 2510 247.0 285.5 2739 2879 212.2
55-58 Bose 200.5 244.0 atte 207.1 1998
60-64 189.0 185.6 z193 18041 206.4 171.7
65-69 167.0 169.8 4952 186.1 1872 161.6
70-74 1403 1428 113.9 1275 1615 149.8
78+ 28 29 20 24 a6 33

25


Table A-1. Working life table for men, 1979-80

(Average years remaining)

Expectation of active and inactive life by current labor force status

Currently active in

Total population Ten forte Currently inactive
A Lite Active Inactive Active Inactive Active inactive
‘ae ‘expectancy years years years years years years
remaining | remairing | remaining remaining | remaining remaining
te 16 aa agi ia
x ex ae x ex ex
a) 2 @) @) 6) © @

16 555 39.1 185 39.8 187 38.3 472
7 548 38.6 160 39.3 153 377 169
18 537 38.0 158 387 150 374 168
19 528 375 153 38.4 147 36.4 163
20 51.8 368 15.0 374 445 387 16.1
a 509 36.2 148 367 143 35.0 160
22 50.0 354 148 35.9 144 342 188
23 491 347 144 35.1 140 334 487
24 48.2 33.9 143 343 139 32.8 156
25 473 33.1 142 335 138 318 186
28 46.4 32.3 144 327 138 308 185
27 455 315 144 a8 137 30.0 155
28 446 306 140 309 137 2e4 155
29 437 298 138 30.1 436 28.1 188
30 428 28.9 13.9 292 136 aA 186
31 43 28.0 138 28.3 135 26.2 15.7
22 409 274 138 278 135 25.1 158
3 400 262 138 268 13.4 241 169
34 39.1 25.3 137 25.7 134 23.1 159
35 382 245 137 248 13.4 224 160
36 373 236 137 239 133 211 16.2
37 363 227 497 23.1 133 20.0 463
38 354 218 138 222 132 13.0 165
39 345 209 138 23 132 179 168
40 336 20.0 138 204 13.2 169 467
ai 327 19.2 138 196 4a 159 168
42 318 183 135 187 13.1 149 17.0
8 309 17.4 135 478 13.0 138 174
4 304 168 135 474 13.9 128 173
45 292 457 135 763 129 118 473
46 283 149 134 155 129 10.9 174
47 275 149 134 147 128 10.0 174
48 266 132 134 138 128 a2 17.4
48 258 124 134 43.1 12.7 83 174
50 25.0 116 13.4 123 128 78 174
51 242 108 134 18 128 ee 474
52 234 10.0 133 108 125 6A 173
53 228 93 133 40.1 125 54 172
54 218 85 133 94 12.4 47 74
55 zi 78 133 a7 124 42 168
56 203 70 133 80 423 37 167
87 198 6a 133 74 122 32 164
58 189 56 43.2 88 124 28 16.1
59 182 50 132 62 119 25 157
60 178 44 13.4 87 447 22 183
81 168 a8 129 53 ats 19 149
62 164 34 127 49 112 17 144
63 485 30 128 48 109 15 140
6 149 26 123 43 105 13 435
65 142 2a 120 44 10.4 12 431
66 136 20 116 38 a7 10 126
67 130 18 113 38 93 ‘2 12.2
68 125 16 10.9 36 a9 7 118
68 18 14 105 34 as 8 114
70 114 12 402 32 84 4 10
n 10.9 4 98 3A 78 3 105
7 404 ‘3 a4 28 75 2 to.
73 98 8 aA 26 73 4 987
74 94 7 az 22 72 ‘4 93
8 30 ‘8 a4 17 72 ‘°° 89



Table A-1. Working life table for men, 1979-80—Continued

Person years lived in each status Person years fived in each status
during age x beyond exact age x
Age Total Active Inactive Total Active Inactive
“Le 4a i 1 . oi
x x 1. Li Ty TA. Th
4 25) 26) 27) (28) (29)

16 97,762 51,792 45,970 5,430,730 3,820,429 1,610,301
7 97,628 $8,293 30,335, 5,392,968 3,768,638 11564330
18 97,475 62,506 34,969 5,235,340 3,710,345 1,524,995
19 97,308 67,443 29,865, 5,137,865 3,647,839 4,490,026
20 97,130 71817 25,413 5,040,557 3,580,385 1,460,162
21 96,941 75,583 21,358 4,943,427 3,508,578 1,434,849
22 96,744 78,780 17,964 4,846,486 3,432,995 1,413,491
23 96,544 81363 15,181 4,749,742 9,354,215 4,395,527
24 96,345, 83,433 12,912 4,653,198 9,272,952 1,380,346
25 96.149 85,125 11,024 4,556,853 3,189,419 4,367,434
26 95,958 86,511 9,447 4,460,704 3,104,293 4,956,411
27 95,770 87,560 8210 4,364,746 9,017,782 4,946,964
28 95,586 88,237 7,348 4,268,976 2,930,222 $938,754
29 95,404 88,651 6,753 4,473,390 2,841,985 4,381,405
30 98,224 88,868 6,466 4,077,986 2,753,334 4,924,652
31 95,044 88,926 ane 9,982,762 2,664,465 4,318,297
32 94,864 88,992 5.992 3,887,718 2,575,539 4,912,179
33 94,680 88,907 5,73 3,792,854 2,486,608 1,308,246
34 94.490 88,844 5,646 3,698,174 2,397,701 4,300,473
35 94,293 88,698 5,595 3,603,684 2,308,856 1,284,828
36 94,084 88,440 5,644 3,509,391 2,220,158 1,289,233
37 93,864 88,157 5,707 9,415,307 2,431,718 4,283,589
38 93,629 87,835 5784 3,321,443 2,043,561 4,277,882
39 93,377 87,444 5,933 3,227,814 1,955,726 1,272,088
40 93,105 87,004 8,101 3,134,437 4,968,282 1,266,155
41 92.811 86,460 6,351 3,041,332 4,781,278 1,260,054
42 92,490 08,021 6.669 2,948,521 4,694,818 4,253,703
43 92,140 85,130 7,010 2,856,031 1,608,997 1,247,034
44 91.757 84,383 7,374 2,763,881 1,523,867 4,240,024
45 91,337 83,569 7,768 2,672,134 1,439,484 1,282,650
46 90,877 82,653 8,224 2,580,797 1,355,915 1,224,882
a7 90,373 8,646 8727 2,489,920 4,273,261 4,216,859
48 89,820 80,543 9,277 2,309,647 4,191,615 1,207,932
49 89.212 79,321 91891 2,309,727 4,111,072 1,198,655
50 88,545 77,998 10,547 2,220,515 4,031,751 1,188,764
51 87.812 76,573 11,239 2.131.970 953,753 4,178,217
52 87,015 75,018 11,997 2,044,158 877,180 1,466,978
53 86,185 73,263 12,892 4,987,143 802,161 1,484,982
54 85,229 71,247 48,982 1,870,988 728,898 1,142,090
55 84,287 68,965, 15,272 4,785,759 657,651 1,128,108
56 83,174 66,275 16,899 4,701,522 588,686 1,112,836
57 82,034 62,877 19,157 4,818,248 522,411 1,095,937
58 80,807 56,745 22,062 4,536,314 459,533 1,076,781
59 79,484 53,958 25,529 4,455,507 400,788 1,054,719
60 78,059 48,437 29,622 4,876,023 346,833 1,029,390
61 76,529 42,535 93,994 1,297,964 298,396 999,568
62 74,895 36.842 38,053 4,221,435 255,861 965,574
63 73,158 31,601 41,557 4,146,540 219,019 927,521
84 71,320 26,891 44,429 1,073,382 187,417 885,965
65 69,384 22.903 46,481 1,002,062 160,527 841,535
66 67,351 19,738 47,615 932,678 137,624 795,054
67 65,218 47,207 48,011 865,327 117,887 747,440
68 62,980 15,147 47,833 800,109 100,681 699,428
69 60,629 43,440 47.189 797,128 85,533 651,596
70 $8,168 14,878 46,288 676,500 72,093 604,407
7 55,597 10,431 45,168 618,434 60,216 568,118
72 $2,936 9142 43,794 562,737 49,784 $12,953
73 50,203 7983 42,220 509,801 40,642 469,159
74 47,417 6,969 40,548 459,598 32,659 426,939
5 44,596 5873 38,723 412,184 26,791 386,390

12