24 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

Counting the Counters Counting the Counters

Once every 10 years, the U.S. Bureau of

the Census undertakes the constitutionally mandated Census of Population and

Housing for apportioning of the House of Representatives. This decennial census is designed to

collect demographic data about all persons living

in the United States, Puerto Rico and the island

areas.1 In addition to Congressional redistricting, census figures are used for redistricting State

legislatures and for distributing Federal funds for

schools, housing assistance, highway construction, and programs for the elderly.2 Because of

its magnitude, the decennial census requires years

of planning and thousands of employees to accomplish. For this reason, employment levels in the

Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Employment

Statistics (CES) survey, particularly in certain industries, are affected—both in the actual year in

which the census is conducted and, to a lesser degree, up to 21 months prior to the census. Hiring

for the census is reflected in data for Federal Government, except Postal Service, as well as in the

aggregate, total nonfarm employment.3 Detailing

the amount of census effect within the CES data is

essential to understanding the underlying employment trends in the affected industries.

Historical overview

From its level at the end of the year prior to the

census to its peak level during the census year,

employment increases ranged from almost 125,000

during the 1970 census to 370,000 during the

1990 census. (See chart 1.) During each of the

last four decennial censuses, Federal employLaura A. Kelter

Laura A. Kelter is an

economist in the Division

of Monthly Industry

Employment Statistics,

Bureau of Labor

Statistics.

Counting the counters: effects

of Census 2000 on employment

In order to distinguish the underlying employment trends

from the effects of Census 2000 hiring, the affected BLS

employment estimates must be adjusted in each of the months

in which intermittent census employees are hired

ment spiked between March and May of the census year, corresponding with hiring for the

Nonresponse Followup portion of the census,

which was conducted from April through July.

In addition, prior to the census year, relatively

small temporary increases in employment occur as workers are hired by the Bureau of the

Census for Address List development and Preparation Field Operations.

In order to analyze the underlying employment

trends in estimates affected by the decennial censuses, the affected CES employment series must be

adjusted for each of the months in which intermittent census employees were hired. An example from

the 1990 census helps illustrate this point. Prior

to adjustment, Federal employment shows a sharp

spike of growth in May and then a corresponding

quick downturn 2 months later. (See chart 2.) Conversely, after adjusting for the temporary census

workers, employment remained basically unchanged during the first half of the census year; it

began to decline slightly in August, as the Nation

entered the 1990–91 recession.

Similarly, prior to adjustment for the temporary census workers, total nonfarm employment

peaked in May 1990 before declining sharply.

(See chart 3.) After adjusting for the census

workers, however, the increase in employment

and the subsequent decline were more modest.

Analysis of Census 2000 data

Hiring for the Census 2000 began in February

1998, but its effects did not become noticeable

in the overall employment counts until August
Monthly Labor Review February 2000 25

Chart 1. Employment in Federal Government, 1958–99, seasonally adjusted

Thousands Thousands

1959 1963 1967 1971 1975 1979 1983 1987 1991 1995 1999

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

1,400

1,600

1,800

2,000

2,200

2,400

2,600

2,800

1960

1970

1980

1990

Census

Census

Census

Census

Chart 2. Employment in Federal Government, including and excluding decennial census 

 workers, January 1989 to December 1990, seasonally adjusted

Thousands Thousands

1989 1989 1989 1989 1990

January April July October January April July October

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

2,000

2,100

2,200

2,300

2,400

2,500

2,600

1990 1990 1990

Federal Government

Federal Government, excluding decennial census workers
26 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

Counting the Counters

Chart 3. Total nonfarm employment, including and excluding decennial census workers,

 January 1989 to December 1990, seasonally adjusted

Thousands Thousands

1989 1989 1989 1989 1990

January April July October January April July October

106,000

107,000

108,000

109,000

110,000

111,000

112,000

106,000

107,000

108,000

109,000

110,000

111,000

112,000

1990 1990 1990

Total nonfarm employment

Total nonfarm, excluding decennial census workers

Chart 4. Employment of Census 2000 workers and phases of census, January 1998

 to December 1999

1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999

Address Block Listing Local

phase Canvassing

phase

Update

Census Addresses

(LUCA) phase

of

January April July October January April July October

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000
Monthly Labor Review February 2000 27

January April July October January April July October

1,750

1,760

1,770

1,780

1,790

1,800

1,810

1,820

1,830

1,840

1,850

1,860

1,870

1,750

1,760

1,770

1,780

1,790

1,800

1,810

1,820

1,830

1,840

1,850

1,860

1,870

Chart 5. Employment in Federal Government, inluding and excluding Census 2000 workers,

 January 1998 to December 1999, seasonally adjusted

Thousands Thousands

1998 1998 1998 1998 1999 1999 1999 1999

Federal Government

Federal Government, excluding

Census 2000 workers

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

Chart 6. Decennial cesus workers as percent of population, 1960–2000

Percent Percent

including and excluding Census 2000 workers,

Decennial census workers as percent of population, 1960–2000
28 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

Counting the Counters

1998, when the level of census enumerators grew by

more than 12,000 workers over the month. (See chart 4.)

This was the beginning of the agency’s Address Listing phase

of the census. Through Address Listing, the Bureau of the Census develops an address list for areas with non-city-style addresses, such as rural routes and box numbers. Address Listing

allows census workers to document, on census maps, the street

address or comparable location, the mailing address if different from the street address, and the census block location of

all living quarters in the United States, Puerto Rico, and the

island areas. In areas with non-city-style addresses, census

workers canvassed assigned areas door-to-door, identifying

each mailing address and describing its physical location. Employment during Address Listing peaked in November 1998 at

a level of more than 41,000 jobs; the level then dropped back

down to around 20,000 jobs in December.

Following Address Listing, the Bureau of the Census began its Block Canvassing phase for city-style areas with

street and number addresses (about 94 million addresses.)

In this phase, employees covered 100 percent of the ground,

knocking on every third door. (In multiunit structures, all

units were visited.) Also during this phase, census workers

verified addresses, asked if there were additional units at

the address or on the property, and inquired about surrounding addresses. Employment during Block Canvassing

reached a peak of nearly 40,000 employees in February and

March 1999 and then rapidly declined to fewer than 8,000

employees by May.

 Following Block Canvassing and progressing through the

end of 1999, the Bureau of the Census initiated its Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) operation. During this

phase, local government officials were given an opportunity

to review and provide updates to the address list of housing

units, special places, and group quarters for their jurisdiction, as well as to update census maps. To that end, the Accuracy and Coverage Evaluation Survey and the Special Place

Facility Questionnaire Operation were conducted. Employment of census workers reached a peak of approximately

18,000 workers during this phase.

Employment in Federal Government including the decennial census workers declined by 43,000 jobs between January 1998 and December 1999. When the decennial census

workers are excluded, however, the industry declined at a

slightly faster rate—58,000 jobs over the 2-year period.

Even though both series were at about the same employment

levels by December 1999, the hiring of Census 2000 workers clearly masked a downward trend in Federal employment.

(See chart 5.) Decennial census workers averaged an additional 15,000 jobs per month during the period. Effects of

the census hiring during 1998 were too small to be noticed

at the total nonfarm employment level, with the exception

of the few peak months during Address Listing and Block

Canvassing phases of the census. Most of the significant effects will come in 2000.

During preliminary work for the 1990 census, the pattern

was similar, although not as dramatic during the early phases

of the census. The hiring of the 1990 decennial census workers made employment in Federal Government appear to have

grown when actually it had remained basically unchanged.

Expectations for Census 2000

As the size of the population has increased, it has taken more

employees to conduct the census (See chart 6.) The Bureau

of the Census has stated that, to account for the anticipated

118 million housing units in the United States and a population expected to reach 275 million people, more than half-amillion census takers and support personnel will be needed.

The temporary positions can last from as little as one day to

several weeks, and most census workers will fill two or three

of the more than 860,000 field positions needed to accomplish Census 2000. 4

Forecasting its employment requirements has been difficult, for several reasons. First, the Supreme Court ruled in

January 1999 that the Bureau of the Census could not use

statistical sampling to supplement any count used to allocate

Congressional seats. Second, the most labor intensive field

operation, Nonresponse Followup, depends upon the actual

percentage of census forms returned by the U.S. public.

Significant hiring for Census 2000 is planned to begin in

March 2000 as preparations are made to conduct major field

operations. Following Census Day—April 1, 2000—and

continuing through early July, the agency will proceed into

its Nonresponse Followup operation, the most labor-intensive field operation. Judging from the past, peak census employment, as measured by the CES, should occur between

March and May 2000.5 Following peak employment, significant layoffs should occur the following month and continue

through December 2000.

THE CES EMPLOYMENT REPORT is a major coincident economic indicator. It is important that analysts understand the

magnitude of Census 2000 hiring to distinguish underlying

employment trends from this special activity that occurs once

a decade. The most significant period of employment increases

and subsequent declines due to Census 2000 will occur between March and September 2000. Throughout the period,

the monthly BLS Employment Situation news release, which

publishes data from the CES and the Current Population Survey, will identify the impact of census workers on the employment estimates. Early in 2001, BLS will publish a detailed account

of the effects of Census 2000 on employment.
Monthly Labor Review February 2000 29

Erratum

In the article, “Industry output and employment projections to 2008,” by Allison

Thomson (Monthly Labor Review, November 1999), some data in tables 1, 2, and 4 are

incorrect. Therefore, some quantitative comparisons in the article may be incorrect.

However, the qualitative analyses and conclusions remain unchanged. A revised

version is on the Internet at:

 http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/mlrhome.htm

For a reprint of the article, contact mlr@bls.gov or James Franklin, Office of Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC 20212;, telephone:

202-691-5709.

Notes

1

 The island areas include the Northern Mariana Islands, Guam, American

Samoa, and the U.S. Virgin Islands.

2

 See Census 2000 Home Page, on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/

dmd/www/2khome.htm, accessed February 2000. The Census 2000 Home Page

is part of the official Bureau of the Census website at http://www.census.gov.

3

 For the purpose of this article, the series, "Federal Government, excluding Postal Service," is used for Federal workers. Universe counts for Federal

workers are provided to the CES survey by the United States Office of Personnel Management, Office of Workforce Information. The data reflect the

number of temporary decennial census workers receiving at least one paycheck during the reference month.

4 Census 2000 Home Page, on the Internet at http://www.census.gov/dmd/

www/2khome.htm, accessed February 2000.

5 A peak is reached in the month in which the employment trend changes from

positive to negative. For example, during the 1990 census, employment in the series

continued to expand through its peak level in May before declining in June.