IMPROVED TIMELINESS OF GEOGRAPHIC DATA THROUGH AUTOMATION OF THE CURRENT

EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS PROGRAM

Kenneth Shipp, Bureau of Labor Statistics

2 Massachusetts Ave. N.W., Washington, D.C. 20212

“It takes so long to create some statistics that by the time they are published, they no longer accurately reflect

reality;

New Technologies could increase the timeliness of government statistics and reduce the burden on firms.” -- Kelly

and Wyckoff

“A stitch in time saves nine” -- Mother Goose

The demand for economic data on a timely

basis has never been greater. Government policy

makers and businesses need current information to

make decisions affecting interest rates, taxes,

investment, and plant locations. Reliance on old

methods of collection and delivery are not sufficient in

an information age where relevant punctual data is

needed to make better government policies and better

private sector decisions. This paper describes how the

Bureau of Labor Statistics and State Employment

Security Agencies have responded to improve the

timeliness and release of geographic economic data

using new technologies. The release of comprehensive

state and area employment data were published 10

weeks after the collection period. This recent BLS

initiative reduced that time to 7 weeks.

The Current Employment Statistics Program

The Current Employment Statistics (CES)

Program provides for the monthly collection and

publication of detailed industry data on employment,

hours, and earnings at the national, State and area

levels. Based on a voluntary sample of nearly 400,000

nonagricultural establishments, it is the largest

monthly survey of its type in the social science field.

The survey has provided economists with

important time series of data since its inception in

1915. The CES survey serves as a cornerstone times

series for economists, business people and policy

makers tracking industrial growth and geographic

movements of industry across the country. The survey

currently releases 3,500 national and 22,000 State and

area time series.

The CES estimates are particularly valuable

because they are among the earliest available economic

indicators each month. National estimates are available

within 3 weeks of the collection period. The CES

collects information about all employees, women

workers, production workers, and hours, earnings and

overtime hours for these production workers. The

publication of estimates has immediate impact for

policy makers, financial markets, and for business

decision makers.

Estimates of all employees and aggregate

hours serve as major sources for the calculation of the

Gross National Product and the Federal Reserve

Board's Index of Industrial Production. The

manufacturing workweek and average overtime hours

are among the most sensitive of the leading economic

indicators. The average hourly earnings series provide

a measure of labor costs to employers and are used to

escalate labor agreements. Changes in the CES data

lead to important economic decisions. For example,

based on changes in the trend of these series, tax

regulations are instituted, revoked or modified, the

money supply is adjusted, interest rates are changed,

collective bargaining decisions are determined, and

decisions about plant locations and investment are

made.

BLS and State Partnership

The CES program operates as a Federal/State

partnership. BLS acts as the manager of the program

and the State Employment Security Agency within

each state performs much of the work. Through a

contractual agreement, BLS provides funding, sets

program goals, objectives, and schedules, determines

methodology and gives technical guidance to the States

to assure that statistical standards are followed.

Although independent from BLS, each State agency

works within these BLS guidelines to conduct the CES

survey.

Individual state employment security agencies

are responsible for data collection, analysis, and

dissemination of their own State and area estimates.

State agencies carry out basic labor market information

work, utilizing BLS technical directives. In addition,

they respond to the data needs associated with the

policies of the U.S. Department of Labor programs.

Another important State function is the transmission of

data to BLS. While each state is responsible for its

own data, BLS acts as the focal point for interstate

comparisons--collecting and disseminating labor
market information for all states, the District of

Columbia, and over 275 major metropolitan areas.

BLS also consolidates the data collection efforts of

these individual states to produce independent national

estimates from the sample collected by the states. This

coordination and cooperation of Federal and State

agencies allows the same sample to be used for

computing national industry estimates in Washington

by BLS and for computing individual State and

metropolitan industry estimates in each State.

Timing--Collection and Publication of Data

Data collection activities within the CES

survey make up a substantial portion of the survey's

workload. The CES survey collection period uses the

standard establishment collection period, the pay

period which includes the 12th of the month. Between

the 12th day of the month and the last Friday of the

month, state agencies are responsible for the initial

collection of data from the establishment, for nonresponse prompting, for editing outliers, and for

providing that microdata to BLS in Washington. BLS

then uses this microdata to produce estimates for the

nation at detailed industry levels. 1 Of the 400,000

survey respondents, this initial collection cycle

typically has a 55-60% response rate. (See the state by

state response rates for 1983 vs. 1994 for the initial

national estimate in table A.) The timing of this

initial collection cycle is set to provide sample data for

the first estimate of national data about 3 weeks after

the reference week. For example, August 1995

estimates are published September 2. The full

collection cycle for national estimates includes the next

 

1Caution in aggregating State data. The national

estimation procedures used by BLS are designed to

produce accurate national data by detailed industry;

correspondingly the State estimation procedures are

designed to produce accurate data for each individual

State. State estimates are not forced to sum to national

totals nor vice versa. Because each State series is

subject to larger sampling and nonsampling errors than

the national series, summing them cumulates

individual State level errors and can cause distortions

at an aggregate level. This has been a particular

problem at turning points in the U.S. economy, when

the majority of the individual State errors tend to be in

the same direction. Due to these statistical limitations,

the Bureau does not compile or publish a "sum-ofStates" employment series. Additionally, BLS cautions

users that such a series is subject to a relatively large

and volatile error structure, particularly at turning

points in the economy.

two months in which final response rates approach 95

percent.
Table A. Sample Available:

Initial National Estimates

March 1983 March 1994

Sample

Units

Sample

Employ -

ment

Response

Rate (%)

State Sample

Units

Sample

Employ -

ment

Response

Rate (%)

1,357 202,397 45 AL 4,691 544,656 55

13 349 1 AK 809 78,807 58

1,608 263,289 54 AZ 2,296 457,311 47

994 99,948 53 AR 2,793 302,664 69

8,309 1,043,587 37 CA 18,813 2,179,542 51

901 141,226 35 CO 3,033 375,214 53

1,506 238,270 48 CT 3,016 371,461 63

342 18,319 21 DE 1,144 80,708 45

231 24,455 40 DC 592 33,759 43

3,282 321,336 48 FL 10,778 1,065,556 58

1,154 194,931 44 GA 6,119 709,466 64

878 107,653 56 HI 1,039 186,752 67

648 37,944 40 ID 2,448 104,477 57

5,361 487,737 51 IL 9,678 964,492 52

1,463 312,948 45 IN 3,343 425,549 43

1,590 187,828 59 IA 3,642 293,919 60

1,663 162,524 47 KS 3,505 230,934 64

754 131,427 46 KY 2,551 358,666 56

939 145,190 45 LA 3,200 322,825 56

1,175 113,527 63 ME 1,707 166,004 77

1,985 207,881 42 MD 3,785 484,447 62

1,849 274,186 42 MA 5,672 682,317 55

1,809 325,749 32 MI 6,928 840,016 51

1,245 145,183 42 MN 3,169 393,571 55

1,354 127,388 42 MS 3,057 319,597 62

2,111 229,346 49 MO 4,453 580,286 68

365 20,678 35 MT 1,272 69,041 54

1,042 73,763 49 NE 2,501 203,191 67

630 68,502 48 NV 1,317 164,382 51

426 53,774 51 NH 1,328 118,286 68

2,923 282,046 42 NJ 6,751 772,797 60

686 51,604 53 NM 1,995 162,720 48

8,961 979,543 44 NY 12,151 1,578,498 55

2,578 379,636 48 NC 6,165 835,300 46

1,034 44,142 40 ND 1,305 45,298 41

3,899 591,237 49 OH 6,018 933,635 54

1,033 122,214 48 OK 2,349 205,228 55

1,051 81,873 26 OR 2,625 249,957 41

7,400 645,778 54 PA 10,555 1,091,021 65

747 103,995 68 RI 975 99,476 70

2,675 335,346 68 SC 3,466 503,484 71

619 33,618 49 SD 1,189 77,735 52

1,111 212,418 45 TN 6,625 638,003 66

3,401 406,936 36 TX 11,361 1,253,826 46

655 64,164 48 UT 2,024 173,578 55

785 36,534 58 VT 1,314 82,793 77

3,504 433,382 51 VA 6,528 698,881 53

914 106,944 30 WA 3,734 504,761 54

799 97,934 47 WV 2,932 207,483 56

1,677 242,879 48 WI 4,250 676,524 65

262 13,711 34 WY 1,605 53,736 44

93,698 11,027,269 45 US 214,596 23,952,630 55

Before this initiative, individual state and area

estimates typically were produced by each state two to

three weeks later than the national due dates using

approximately 80% response rates. These estimates

are published by each State Employment Security

Agencies in individual state press releases and are also

forwarded to BLS in Washington. BLS then

consolidates these individual State and area estimates

into a comprehensive geographic press release which

includes CES employment data for major industry

sectors for all states. Comprehensive industrial data

for all states and most metropolitan areas are also

provided to the user community through electronic data

bases at the same time the press release is published.

These comprehensive data, 22,000 time series, include

estimates for employment at the three digit Standard

Industrial Classification (SIC) level as well as hours

and earnings of production workers in manufacturing.

In 1994 BLS and State Employment Security Agency's

enhanced the press release by publishing seasonally

adjusted statewide employment series for major

industry divisions.

BLS started publishing the “State and

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment”

press release in 1983 when many of the local labor

market analysis functions were transferred to BLS from

another agency within the Labor Department. At that

time the publication schedule for the geographic data

was considerably lagged in relation to the national

estimates. The national estimates are published in The

Employment Situation press release only 3 weeks after

the reference week. While geographic estimates were

unavailable until 10 weeks after the reference week.

Much of this lag in publishing geographic data was

because of a heavy reliance on mail and on unique state

operational structures which made it difficult to

standardize operations and control production timing.

In 1983, the sample (215,000) was solicited,

collected, and prompted exclusively by mail. Each

state had a unique computer system which made

standardization of methodologies and operations

difficult to control. And the expanded use of

telecommunication to collect and transmit data was in

its infancy.

Operational Improvements

Between 1983 and 1994, BLS and State

Employment Security Agency's successfully

implemented major operational and technological

improvements in data collection, systems

standardization, and telecommunications which

allowed the publication schedule for geographic

estimates to be reduced by 3 weeks, without adversely

effecting the estimates.

Data collection of CES reporters today is

remarkably different from the mailing scenarios of the

mid-1980s. A decade of research and implementation

of Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews (CATI),

Touch-tone Data Entry (TDE), Voice Recognition

(VR), and FAX technologies have transformed the

collection of sample data. These new technologies now
collect nearly half of the total sample employment

(48,000,000 employees). These new methods have

substantially reduced the time previously required to

solicit, receive, and prompt reporters through the mail.

State response rates for the preliminary national

estimates in 1983 were about 45% of the sample.

Overall response rates are now approaching 70% in

many states for this initial estimate, with the automated

CATI and TDE methodologies leading the way by

consistently having 75-85% response rates. These

advances have been made as total sample has grown

from 215,000 to 395,000 in this time frame. And,

sample for the initial estimate has grown from 95,000

to 225,000. The data collection efforts have reduced

mail costs and improved the initial national

employment estimate’s reliability. Between 1983 and

1994 the preliminary to final estimate revision at the

aggregate total non farm level was reduced from

85,000 to 68,000 employees. Werking, Clayton, et.

al.

Table B: Data Collection Improvements:

Initial National Estimates

March 1983

Collection

Method

Sample

Units

Sample

Employmen

t

Response

Rate (%)

CATI 0 0 NA

TDE 0 0 NA

MAIL 93,698 11,027,269 45

ALL 93,698 11,027,269 45

March 1994

Sample

Units

Sample

Employmen

t

Response

Rate (%)

CATI 12,083 3,217,227 84

TDE 42,091 9,829,610 77

MAIL 160,422 10,905,793 50

ALL 214,596 23,952,630 55

Systems standardization across State

Employment Security Agency's was also addressed by

BLS during this time frame. In response to the Levitan

Committee’s recommendations for improving the CES,

in 1986 BLS and State Employment Security Agency's

developed and began exporting the Automated Current

Employment System (ACES). This system has

incorporated the automated data collection

improvements (e.g. TDE) as well as standardizing

other state CES operations such as solicitation,

estimation, editing, benchmarking, and transfers of

files. ACES is now operating in 38 states, the District

of Columbia and Puerto Rico. ACES provides BLS

with
• standardization of processes;

• cost efficiency in system development,

training and maintenance;

• automation of previously manual activities;

• file transfers and data interchange with other

necessary data sources such as the

Unemployment Insurance data files

necessary for sample solicitation, and

benchmarking.

ACES also facilitates cross state processing by making

exchange of multi-unit reporters and other shared

sample data (used in interstate metropolitan area

estimates) more timely and reliable. It automatically

transmits sample reports, sample control information,

and geographic estimates through standard

telecommunications files and protocols. These

standard files and coordination with other BLS systems

have helped streamline the monthly publication cycle.

For example, each state using ACES will transmit a

comprehensive set of geographic estimates to a BLS

computer system that detects and creates a file of

potential outliers for further review by BLS regional

staff and state analysts. These outliers are reviewed,

corrected, reprocessed, and updated on public data

bases within one day. Before these ACES and

telecommunications enhancements, this process was

dependent on mail to receive, review, and revise the

estimates. Shipp.

Improvements in telecommunications by BLS

and State Employment Security Agencies have played

a major role in reducing the time frame for producing

CES estimates. As early as 1979 BLS began using

telecommunications of sample microdata from State

Employment Security Agencies to improve the

response rates for the initial national estimates. Now,

BLS and State Employment Security Agencies rely on

telecommunications for quick transfers of sample data,

sample control information, edits, and geographic

estimates. Each state is linked through high speed

modems to central processing sites of BLS as well as to

other states. Entire processes have been influenced by

file transfers through telecommunications. For

example, each month, states produce and transmit a

file of delinquent reporters to 3 major data collection

centers staffed by BLS. These centers prompt these

delinquent reporters through automated non-response

lists and faxes. Reporters then respond through

automated TDE software into ACES. These reports

are edited and transmitted to Washington for inclusion

in the national estimates and used in subsequent State

and area estimates.

Many other CES operational improvements

have been influenced by telecommunications.

Transmission of sample data from states can now be

done on a flow basis, with many reports arriving as late

as Monday of the publication week. These reports are

available to national BLS staff using sophisticated

visual screening technologies running on an

independent Local Area Network. Esposito, et. al.

These technological enhancements were

primarily developed in response to improving the

reliability of initial national estimates. However, as

they became successfully implemented, the opportunity

to improve the timeliness and accuracy of geographic

estimates was also available.

Relating Improvements to CES Geographic Data

Faster publication. BLS has long encouraged State

Employment Security Agencies to produce geographic

CES estimates in conjunction with the release of

national CES data. However, very few states have been

able to accomplish this goal because of resource and

timing conflicts between BLS/State Employment

Security Agencies workload requirements. BLS sets

minimum sample levels in contractual agreements with

State Employment Security Agency's to obtain in the

initial national CES estimate, which dictates that State

Employment Security Agency's dedicate the last week

in each month to the sample collection and editing

process rather than in their individual states'

estimation and analysis activities. Knowing these

constraints, BLS revised the concurrent publication

goal. To reduce conflict with national collection

priorities, the revised goal was set to publish the "State

and Metropolitan Area Employment and

Unemployment" press release within 7 weeks of the

reference week--a 50% reduction in the lag time

between release of national CES data and geographic

estimates. In February 1993 BLS proposed that State

Employment Security Agency's revise their current

individual publication cycles to produce geographic

estimates four weeks after the reference week or about

one week after the national CES estimates were

published. Test simulations to measure the effect of

this revised schedule on estimates and workload were

conducted in 4 states who volunteered to run two sets

of February 1993 estimates--a normal timing cycle and

one test cycle two weeks before the normal cycle.

Total nonfarm employment--February 1993

early normal

Missouri 2,216,600 2,216,100

Montana 316,900 316,200

New Mexico 597,200 593,600

_______________________________________

* Iowa also participated in the test, with similar results, but results were

discounted because of operational problems.
Although these simulations show small

differences at aggregate levels, states voiced concern

about detailed SIC levels, particularly in those

industries where reporters were on monthly payrolls

and would not have adequate representation in these

early estimates. BLS agreed with the states concerns

about the collection cycle and restored one of the two

State Employment Security Agencies collection weeks

that was cut in the initial proposal. These revised time

frames were acceptable within both State Employment

Security Agencies and BLS operations. In March

1994, BLS and State Employment Security Agency's

implemented the revised schedule. The goal for faster

publication of the "State and Metropolitan Area

Employment and Unemployment" release was

therefore achieved by reducing the State Employment

Security Agencies collection cycle by one week and

also through reducing one week required in the manual

publication process in Washington. For an ever

increasing number of computer users of the BLS

electronic database at the National Institutes of Health

(NIH), the gains were even greater. Electronic access

through BLS NIH databases to comprehensive

geographic data (22,000 time series) was reduced to 6

weeks after the sample reference week.

Accuracy. Often, gains in timeliness come at the

expense of accuracy or coverage. With a year of this

revised schedule completed, we can determine if these

gains in timeliness came at the expense of accuracy by

comparing revisions between preliminary and final

estimates at the Statewide level. Since the complete

scope of States, areas, and industries remained the

same in both publication cycles, there has been no

change in coverage or scope. A comparison of

statewide total nonfarm employment revisions for

February-November in 1993 (old schedule) and

February-November 1994 (revised schedule) shows

relatively small changes for any individual state and

practically no change when evaluating revisions across

all states (See Table C: "Revisions in Preliminary to

Final Employment Estimates").

Average statewide absolute preliminary to final

change (old schedule) 0.4

Average statewide preliminary to final change

(new schedule) 0.4

Table C. Revisions in Preliminary to Final

Employment Estimates: Total Nonfarm

Average Monthly Revision (in 000's)

State

Old Schedule-

-1993

New

Schedule--

1994

Employment

AL 0.4 -1.7 1,752.5

AK 0.1 0.1 260.1

AZ 0.6 0.0 1,685.2

AR 0.2 0.4 1,035.2

CA 0.1 -1.5 12,136.1

CO -0.1 0.6 1,749.7

CT -0.4 -0.3 1,542.4

DE -0.1 0.2 355.0

DC -0.5 0.2 657.3

FL 1.3 1.8 5,796.6

GA 0.3 0.3 3,263.8

HI -0.1 0.0 536.1

ID 0.3 0.2 463.0

IL -0.9 3.8 5,463.1

IN -0.2 0.2 2,712.0

IA -0.2 0.4 1,319.2

KS 0.1 0.1 1,166.3

KY 0.5 0.7 1,598.7

LA 0.9 1.4 1,727.1

ME -0.1 0.1 531.2

MD 0.2 -1.0 2,144.5

MA 0.8 -0.1 2,905.0

MI -0.8 -1.1 4,141.6

MN 0.8 -0.3 2,311.4

MS -0.9 0.8 1,053.4

MO 0.9 1.3 2,472.9

MT 0.3 0.1 340.5

NE -0.5 0.2 795.5

NV 0.4 0.4 736.7

NH 0.5 0.2 522.3

NJ 0.4 -0.4 3,550.3

NM 0.5 0.5 658.1

NY 3.1 0.7 7,800.3

NC 2.9 2.8 3,361.1

ND 0.2 0.2 294.7

OH -0.6 0.3 5,076.2

OK 0.9 1.2 1,278.6

OR 0.0 0.2 1,364.0

PA 0.9 2.0 5,187.8

RI 0.0 -0.4 434.0

SC -0.3 -0.3 1,607.3

SD 0.3 0.4 332.9

TN 1.1 0.9 2,420.8

TX 3.9 2.1 7,740.1

UT 0.6 -0.2 861.0

VT -0.1 0.2 263.8

VA 1.9 -0.6 3,006.1

WA 1.1 1.6 2,309.0

WV -0.2 0.2 674.8

WI 1.1 1.0 2,482.5

WY 0.4 -0.1 216.9

The implementation of telecommunications

and data collection have been instrumental in

providing states with the necessary sample to publish

data faster without adversely effecting accuracy.
Standardization of state operations through software

like ACES has also raised states’ productivity and

ability to produce better data. In fact, the 1994

preliminary State estimate is made with substantially

more sample than the 1983 state estimate.

We will continue to monitor the preliminary to final

revisions in these data in light of this project as well as

other BLS initiatives to provide more timely

geographic data.

Future enhancements. BLS and State Employment

Security Agency's are committed to providing even

more timely geographic CES data to users. In the

short run and within the current panel sample

methodology there are incremental changes that can be

made to provide data to users somewhat faster. We

have identified two days in the production cycle that

could be reduced by streamlining the editing of macro

estimates. There may be other time savings available

by automating some of the manual activities now

inherent in the production of the paper documents..

These short run opportunities could make the data

available on databases within 5 weeks of the reference

week, and in printed form within 6 weeks. Much of

our current focus in meeting users data needs has

turned to electronic formats and accessibility of data.

The explosion of Internet gives BLS an opportunity to

provide timely comprehensive data to an expanded

base of users at minimal costs.

In the longer run, the biggest advances will

likely be results of a more comprehensive redesign of

the CES survey that is beginning in 1995. This

redesign will transform the CES into a probability

design that will likely accommodate state, area, urban

and rural components, i.e. geographic data are

available to determine where industrial employment,

hours and earnings movements are taking place at the

same time national data is available. These advances

are dependent on the continued success of automated

data collection methods, systems advancements, and

especially telecommunications....as opportunities like

Electronic Data Interchange (EDI) are available for

data exchange between respondents, survey takers, and

data users.

And, in any time frame we will continue to be

conscious of users needs--as a general rule, users want

extensive coverage; ease of access; timeliness, accuracy

(validity, reliability); clear-cut methodology

(consistency and continuity); and integrity of both the

data and the source. When the producers of data keep

these requisites in mind, the result should be strong

demand for the figures. Duncan, Gross.

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