Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 33

Labor Force

Labor force projections to 2016:

more workers in their golden years

Mitra Toossi For the past several decades, the U.S. 

labor force has consistently posted 

high growth rates. According to the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), these elevated rates are likely to be replaced by a 

much lower growth rate over the 2006–16 

decade, principally for two reasons: the 

baby-boom generation is aging and retiring, and the labor force participation rate of 

women appears to have peaked.

In the second half of the 20th century, labor force growth was especially rapid as the 

baby-boom generation reached working age 

and entered the labor market. At the same 

time, the labor force participation rate of 

women expanded rapidly. Both trends have 

run their course. However, due to significant 

increases in both the participation rate and 

the share of the older labor force, the growth 

of the older labor force in the next decade will 

be much higher than the labor force growth 

of the other age groups.1

The civilian labor force is projected to increase by nearly 13 million, reaching 164.2 

million in 2016. This 0.8-percent annual 

growth rate is lower than the 1.2-percent annual growth rate registered during the previous 10-year period. (See table 1.) In addition, the labor force will continue to age: the 

55-years-and-older workforce is expected to 

grow by 46.7 percent over the projection period, more than 5 times the growth projected 

for the aggregate labor force.

The BLS projects that the labor force 

participation rate of the U.S. population 

will be 65.5 percent in 2016. After increasing for more than 50 years, the proportion 

of the population that participates in the 

labor force reached an all-time high of 67.1 

percent in 1997.2 The participation rate continued its high growth until 2001, when the 

U.S. economy entered a recession, causing the 

rate to fall. Unlike its behavior during previous downturns, in which it would soon return to the prerecession level, the labor force 

participation rate continued to decline long 

after the 2001 recession was over. After dropping to 66.0 percent in 2004 and 2005, the 

participation rate had a small increase of 0.2 

percentage point in 2006. 

A number of factors are responsible for 

overall changes in the labor force participation rate. Three demographic factors are that 

participation rates vary by sex, different age 

groups behave differently in the labor market, and not all race and ethnic groups are 

attached to the labor market in the same 

fashion. In sum, the ever-changing dynamics 

of the age, sex, race, and ethnic groups within 

the population affects the overall labor force 

participation rate over time.

Although this article focuses mostly on 

demographic factors, the impact of other variables cannot be ignored. The education and 

skill levels of the population are an important 

determinant of the labor force participation 

rate, with more years of schooling highly correlated with higher levels of participation in 

Mitra Toossi is 

an economist 

in the Office of 

Occupational Statistics 

and Employment 

Projections, Bureau of 

Labor Statistics. E-mail: 

toossi.mitra@bls.gov

As the U.S. population ages, the labor force will grow more slowly 

during the next decade; the older labor force is projected to grow 

more than 5 times faster than the overall labor force, 

which will become ever more racially and ethnically diverse

Employment outlook: 2006–16
Labor Force

34 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

the labor force. In addition, health is of paramount importance for the labor force participation rates of individuals 

and certain groups in the population.3 Also, cyclical changes 

such as economic expansions and recessions can cause shortterm variations in labor force participation rates. Finally, 

long-term changes in tastes, preferences, and technology 

can affect the decision to participate in the labor force.

Several trends evident in past labor force participation 

rates are expected to continue to have an impact on the 

U.S. workforce over the next decade. A summary of those 

factors which are expected to affect the trend of the participation rate in the future follows.

The labor force participation rate of youths decreased measurably before and after the recession of 2001. The labor force 

participation rate of the 16-to-24-year-old labor force 

has been on a declining trend since the end of the 1980s. 

Sixteen-to-24-year-olds are more vulnerable than other 

age groups during recessions. The first to be fired and the 

last to be hired, they tend to stay in school longer during 

economic downturns. In addition, school attendance, including attendance at summer school, has increased for 

the past two decades, decreasing the participation of the 

young in the labor force. Still, the participation rate of 

this age group has decreased both for those who are in 

school and for those who are not in school. The decline 

in labor force participation among youths—specifically, 

teens—may also include other factors, such as personal 

choice, rising family incomes, and competition for available jobs.4

 A projected continuation of the decrease in 

Table 1. Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

Group 

Level

1996–

2006

1986–

96 2006 2006–

16

1996–

2006

1986–

96

Change

Total, 16 

 years and 

 older......... 117,834 133,943 151,428 164,232 16,109 17,485 12,804 13.7 13.1 8.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Age, years: 

 16 to 24.. 23,367 21,183 22,394 20,852 –2,184 1,211 –1,542 –9.3 5.7 –6.9 -1.0 .6 –.7 19.8 15.8 14.8 12.7

 25 to 54.. 79,563 96,786 103,566 106,026 17,223 6,780 2,460 21.6 7.0 2.4 2.0 .7 .2 67.5 72.3 68.4 64.6

 55 and 

 older.... 14,904 15,974 25,468 37,354 1,070 9,494 11,886 7.2 59.4 46.7 .7 4.8 3.9 12.6 11.9 16.8 22.7

Sex:

 Men.......... 65,422 72,087 81,255 87,781 6,665 9,168 6,526 10.2 12.7 8.0 1.0 1.2 .8 55.5 53.8 53.7 53.4

 Women..... 52,413 61,857 70,173 76,450 9,444 8,316 6,277 18.0 13.4 8.9 1.7 1.3 .9 44.5 46.2 46.3 46.6

Race:

 White ....... 101,801 113,108 123,834 130,665 11,307 10,726 6,831 11.1 9.5 5.5 1.1 .9 .5 86.4 84.4 81.8 79.6

 Black........ 12,654 15,134 17,314 20,121 2,480 2,180 2,807 19.6 14.4 16.2 1.8 1.4 1.5 10.7 11.3 11.4 12.3

 Asian........ 3,379 5,701 6,727 8,741 2,322 1,026 2,014 68.7 18.0 29.9 5.4 1.7 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.3

 All other 

 groups1 . – – 3,553 4,705 – – 1,152 – – 32.4 – – 2.8 – – 2.3 2.9

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic 

 origin ...... 8,076 12,774 20,694 26,889 4,698 7,920 6,195 58.2 62.0 29.9 4.7 4.9 2.7 6.9 9.5 13.7 16.4

 Other than 

 Hispanic 

 origin.... 109,758 121,169 130,734 137,343 11,411 9,565 6,609 10.4 7.9 5.1 1.0 .8 .5 93.1 90.5 86.3 83.6

 White non-

 Hispanic.. 94,027 100,915 104,629 106,133 6,888 3,714 1,504 7.3 3.7 1.4 .7 .4 .1 79.8 75.3 69.1 64.6

Age of baby 

 boomers.. 22 to 40 32 to 50 42 to 60 52 to 70 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

1986

Annual growth rate

1996 2006 2006–

16

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1996–

2006

2006–

16 2016

Percent

change

1986–

96 1986 1996 2016

1

 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified 

as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) 

American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islanders. Dash indicates no data collected for category.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 35

the labor force participation rate of youths is one reason for 

the anticipated downward trend of the overall labor force 

participation rate.

The aging of the baby-boom generation and its movement from 

the prime-age to the older labor force will decrease the overall 

labor force participation rate. The age composition of the 

population and labor force is changing due to the increasing share of older age groups. The older age groups have 

significantly lower participation rates than the prime age 

groups, those between the ages of 25 and 54, which have 

strong attachments to the labor market. Once the baby 

boomers exit the last years of the prime age group and 

enter the 55-and-older age group, with participation rates 

roughly half that of the prime age group, the overall labor force participation rate will decline significantly.5

 The 

lower participation rate of the 55-and-older age group, 

coupled with the larger share of the older population in 

the future, is projected to decrease the overall participation rate.

The labor force participation rate of the older workforce has 

increased considerably since the late 1980s. The increase in 

the labor force participation of this group over the past 

several decades is expected to continue into the foreseeable future.

The women’s labor force participation rate peaked in 1999 after years of rapid growth. Since then, their participation 

rate has been declining. On the basis of the current trend, 

the labor force participation rate of women reached its 

peak at 60 percent in 1999, and the trend will be at best 

flat in the future.

The men’s labor force participation rate has been steadily 

decreasing. The men’s participation rate peaked at 86.6 

percent in 1948.6 The rate is expected to continue declining for the foreseeable future.

The labor force participation rate of Hispanics and Asians has 

increased substantially in the past several decades. The BLS

projects that the two groups will maintain their strong 

participation rates during the 2006–16 period. This trend 

will continue to change the composition and diversity of 

the future labor force.

Major factors affecting labor force change

The BLS projects the future supply of labor by combining 

population projections with the projections of the labor 

force participation rate. Growth of the labor force is vital for the creation of goods and services in the economy 

and for the long-term growth of gross domestic product 

(GDP).7 All other things equal (including productivity), 

slower labor force growth means slower growth in the 

level of goods and services an economy can provide.

Although population growth and the changes in the 

participation rates are both determinants of labor force 

growth, the growth of the population has the stronger impact. Of course, a decreasing labor force participation rate 

hinders the labor force from growing more rapidly.

Population projections

The Census Bureau’s projection of the U.S. resident population is the basis for the BLS labor force projections. Resident population projections are provided by age, sex, race, 

and ethnic categories. The 2006–16 round of labor force 

projections uses the Census Bureau’s most recent interim 

population projections.8

To take advantage of the latest published data, the 

Census Bureau’s interim population projections have 

been benchmarked to the actual 2006 Current Population Survey (CPS) data.9

 The conversion from the resident population concept of the Census Bureau to the 

civilian noninstitutional population concept of the CPS

takes place in three steps. First, the population of children 

younger than 16 years is taken out of the total resident 

population. Then, the population of the Armed Forces, 

broken down into different age, sex, race, and ethnic categories, is subtracted. Finally, the institutional population 

is subtracted from the civilian population for all the different categories.10

The civilian noninstitutional population is expected 

to continue to grow at 0.9 percent annually during the 

2006–16 projection period, reaching 250.6 million in 

2016. (See table 2.) This rate of growth is slower than the 

1.3 percent posted during the previous decade. 

The men’s civilian noninstitutional population stood 

at 110.6 million in 2006 and is projected to reach 121.5 

million in 2016. The women’s civilian noninstitutional 

population was 118.2 million in 2006 and is expected to 

be 129.1 million in 2016. 

The Census Bureau’s projection of the resident population is based on the current size and composition of the 

population and on assumptions about future fertility, life 

expectancy, and net international migration. From the 

interplay among these components, different rates of 

population growth lead to different rates of labor force 

growth.
Labor Force

36 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

Group

1986

Level

1996 1986–

96 2006 2016 1996–

2006

1986–

96

Change

 

Total, 16 years 

 and older.......... 180,587 200,591 228,815 250,597 20,004 28,224 21,782 1.1 1.3 0.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 16 to 24............. 34,065 32,343 36,943 36,539 –1,722 4,600 –404 –.5 1.3 –.1 18.9 16.1 16.1 14.6

 16 to 19........... 14,496 14,934 16,678 15,717 438 1,744 –961 .3 1.1 –.6 8.0 7.4 7.3 6.3

 20 to 24........... 19,569 17,409 20,265 20,822 –2,160 2,856 557 –1.2 1.5 .3 10.8 8.7 8.9 8.3

 25 to 54............. 97,013 115,505 124,884 126,806 18,492 9,379 1,922 1.8 .8 .2 53.7 57.6 54.6 50.6

 25 to 34........... 41,731 40,252 39,230 43,684 –1,479 –1,022 4,454 –.4 –.3 1.1 23.1 20.1 17.1 17.4

 35 to 44........... 32,550 43,086 42,753 40,401 10,536 –333 –2,352 2.8 –.1 –.6 18.0 21.5 18.7 16.1

 45 to 54........... 22,732 32,167 42,901 42,721 9,435 10,734 –180 3.5 2.9 .0 12.6 16.0 18.7 17.0

 55 and older...... 49,508 52,741 66,988 87,250 3,233 14,247 20,262 .6 2.4 2.7 27.4 26.3 29.3 34.8

 55 to 64........... 22,011 20,990 31,375 40,893 –1,021 10,385 9,518 –.5 4.1 2.7 12.2 10.5 13.7 16.3

 65 to 74........... 17,039 18,244 18,685 27,371 1,205 441 8,686 .7 .2 3.9 9.4 9.1 8.2 10.9

 75 and older.... 10,458 13,507 16,928 18,986 3,049 3,421 2,058 2.6 2.3 1.2 5.8 6.7 7.4 7.6

Men, 16 years 

 and older........... 85,798 96,206 110,605 121,454 10,408 14,399 10,849 1.2 1.4 .9 47.5 48.0 48.3 48.5

 16 to 24............. 16,773 16,210 18,650 18,419 –563 2,440 –231 –.3 1.4 –.1 9.3 8.1 8.2 7.4

 16 to 19........... 7,275 7,600 8,459 7,951 325 859 –508 .4 1.1 –.6 4.0 3.8 3.7 3.2

 20 to 24........... 9,498 8,611 10,191 10,467 –887 1,580 276 –1.0 1.7 .3 5.3 4.3 4.5 4.2

 25 to 54............. 47,342 56,671 61,640 62,937 9,329 4,969 1,297 1.8 .8 .2 26.2 28.3 26.9 25.1

 25 to 34........... 20,498 19,775 19,568 21,859 –723 –207 2,291 –.4 –.1 1.1 11.4 9.9 8.6 8.7

 35 to 44........... 15,858 21,222 21,082 20,044 5,364 –140 –1,038 3.0 –.1 –.5 8.8 10.6 9.2 8.0

 45 to 54........... 10,986 15,674 20,991 21,034 4,688 5,317 43 3.6 3.0 .0 6.1 7.8 9.2 8.4

 55 and older...... 21,683 23,325 30,315 40,098 1,642 6,990 9,783 .7 2.7 2.8 12.0 11.6 13.2 16.0

 55 to 64........... 10,336 9,997 15,095 19,767 –339 5,098 4,672 –.3 4.2 2.7 5.7 5.0 6.6 7.9

 65 to 74........... 7,490 8,194 8,574 12,686 704 380 4,112 .9 .5 4.0 4.1 4.1 3.7 5.1

 75 and older.... 3,857 5,134 6,646 7,645 1,277 1,512 999 2.9 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.6 2.9 3.1

Women, 16 years

 and older.......... 94,789 104,385 118,210 129,143 9,596 13,825 10,933 1.0 1.3 .9 52.5 52.0 51.7 51.5

 16 to 24............. 17,293 16,132 18,292 18,122 –1,161 2,160 –170 –.7 1.3 –.1 9.6 8.0 8.0 7.2

 16 to 19........... 7,221 7,335 8,218 7,766 114 883 –452 .2 1.1 –.6 4.0 3.7 3.6 3.1

 20 to 24........... 10,072 8,798 10,074 10,356 –1,274 1,276 282 –1.3 1.4 .3 5.6 4.4 4.4 4.1

 25 to 54............. 49,671 58,835 63,243 63,869 9,164 4,408 626 1.7 .7 .1 27.5 29.3 27.6 25.5

 25 to 34........... 21,233 20,477 19,662 21,825 –756 –815 2,163 –.4 –.4 1.0 11.8 10.2 8.6 8.7

 35 to 44........... 16,692 21,865 21,671 20,357 5,173 –194 –1,314 2.7 –.1 –.6 9.2 10.9 9.5 8.1

 45 to 54........... 11,746 16,493 21,910 21,687 4,747 5,417 –223 3.5 2.9 –.1 6.5 8.2 9.6 8.7

 55 and older...... 27,825 29,418 36,675 47,152 1,593 7,257 10,477 .6 2.2 2.5 15.4 14.7 16.0 18.8

 55 to 64........... 11,675 10,993 16,280 21,126 –682 5,287 4,846 –.6 4.0 2.6 6.5 5.5 7.1 8.4

 65 to 74........... 9,482 10,050 10,111 14,686 568 61 4,575 .6 .1 3.8 5.3 5.0 4.4 5.9

 75 and older.... 6,668 8,375 10,284 11,340 1,707 1,909 1,056 2.3 2.1 1.0 3.7 4.2 4.5 4.5

White,16 years 

 and older .......... 155,432 168,317 186,264 199,493 12,885 17,947 13,229 .8 1.0 .7 86.1 83.9 81.4 79.6

 Men................... 74,390 81,489 91,021 97,845 7,099 9,532 6,824 .9 1.1 .7 41.2 40.6 39.8 39.0

 Women.............. 81,042 86,828 95,243 101,648 5,786 8,415 6,405 .7 .9 .7 44.9 43.3 41.6 40.6

Black, 16 years 

 and older........... 19,989 23,604 27,007 31,009 3,615 3,403 4,002 1.7 1.4 1.4 11.1 11.8 11.8 12.4

 Men................... 8,956 10,575 12,130 14,044 1,619 1,555 1,914 1.7 1.4 1.5 5.0 5.3 5.3 5.6

 Women.............. 11,033 13,029 14,877 16,965 1,996 1,848 2,088 1.7 1.3 1.3 6.1 6.5 6.5 6.8

Asian, 16 years

 and older........... 5,166 8,671 10,155 13,268 3,505 1,484 3,113 5.3 1.6 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.3

 Men................... 2,453 4,142 4,827 6,210 1,689 685 1,383 5.4 1.5 2.6 1.4 2.1 2.1 2.5

 Women.............. 2,713 4,529 5,328 7,058 1,816 799 1,730 5.3 1.6 2.9 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.8

All other groups1 . – – 5,389 6,826 – – 1,437 – – 2.4 – – 2.4 2.7

 Men................... – – 2,627 3,472 – – 845 – – 2.8 – – 1.1 1.4

 Women.............. – – 2,762 3,354 – – 592 – – 2.0 – – 1.2 1.3

1986

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1996 2006 2006–

16

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1996–

2006

2006–

16 2016

See footnote at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 37

Fertility. Of the three factors affecting population 

growth, the fertility rate has the most significant impact 

on long-term population growth. However, as regards 

the 2006–16 labor force projection, it is not the fertility 

rate itself, but the consequence of past fertility rates, that 

has the most impact on labor force growth. The fertility 

rate is the average total number of children a woman will 

have in the future. In the Census Bureau projections, the 

level of child bearing is assumed to remain close to the 

present level, near the replacement rate of 2.1, with differences by race and ethnic origin diminishing over time. 

Compared with other developed countries, the United 

States has a high fertility rate, which can be partly explained by the number of young immigrants entering the 

country.

Mortality. The Census Bureau projection of mortality is 

based on the average number of years a child born in a 

given year can expect to live. The mortality rate is projected to decline gradually from 2006 to 2016, with less 

variation by race and Hispanic origin than at present.

Immigration. International migration has played a vital role in the composition and size of the U.S. population. Of all the assumptions about the future growth of 

the population, assumptions about migration affect the 

size and composition of the future population the most. 

Because they are greatly affected by public policy, these 

assumptions are also the most uncertain of all.11 Immigration has had a significant impact on the demographic 

composition of the population over the past decades 

and will likely continue to do so in the future. The rapid 

growth of some of the racial and ethnic groups, such as 

Hispanics, will increase their share of the population. 

Over the 2006–16 period, overall net migration is expected to account for a sizable proportion of the net U.S. 

population growth. 

Historic and future trends. Beginning in the 20th century, 

several key demographic events had major impacts on the 

size, composition, and growth of the population:

• High fertility rates and high immigration, the latter 

Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and 

projected 2016

Table 2.

Group

1986

Level

1996 1986–

96 2006 2016 1996–

2006

1986–

96

Change

 

Hispanic origin, 

 16 years and 

 older.................. 12,344 19,213 30,103 39,169 6,869 10,890 9,066 4.5 4.6 2.7 6.8 9.6 13.2 15.6

 Men................... 6,105 9,604 15,473 19,995 3,499 5,869 4,522 4.6 4.9 2.6 3.4 4.8 6.8 8.0

 Women.............. 6,238 9,610 14,630 19,174 3,372 5,020 4,544 4.4 4.3 2.7 3.5 4.8 6.4 7.7

Other than 

 Hispanic origin, 

 16 years and 

 older.................. 168,243 181,378 198,712 211,428 13,135 17,334 12,716 .8 .9 .6 93.2 90.4 86.8 84.4

 Men ................. 79,693 86,602 95,132 101,459 6,909 8,530 6,327 .8 .9 .6 44.1 43.2 41.6 40.5

 Women............ 88,551 94,775 103,580 109,969 6,224 8,805 6,389 .7 .9 .6 49.0 47.2 45.3 43.9

White non-

 Hispanic, 

 16 years and 

 older................ 143,566 150,024 158,308 163,224 6,458 8,284 4,916 .4 .5 .3 79.5 74.8 69.2 65.1

 Men ................. 68,587 72,319 76,597 79,267 3,732 4,278 2,670 .5 .6 .3 38.0 36.1 33.5 31.6

 Women............ 74,980 77,706 81,711 83,957 2,726 4,005 2,246 .4 .5 .3 41.5 38.7 35.7 33.5

Age of baby

 boomers............ 22 to 40 32 to 50 42 to 60 52 to 70 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

 

1986

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1996 2006 2006–

16

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1996–

2006

2006–

16 2016

1

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) those classified 

as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) 

American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islanders. Dash indicates no data collected for category.
Labor Force

38 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

mainly from Europe, prior to the 1920s. 

The “birth dearth” of the late 1920s and early 1930s.

The “baby boom,” a period of high birthrates starting 

in 1946 and lasting until 1964. 

The “baby bust,” reflecting a decline in birthrates after 1965 and through the 1970s.

The “baby-boom echo,” reflecting a modest increase in 

births from the late 1970s through the early 1990s.

Immigration to the United States, which increased 

substantially in the 1970s and is continuing today. 

The rise in the immigrant population has resulted 

in higher growth rates for the U.S. population. Also, 

because children born to immigrants in the United 

States are, by definition, natives, immigration has resulted in increased fertility rates for specific groups, 

again adding to the growth of the population.

As a result of declining fertility rates, increasing life expectancies, and longer and healthier lives, the population 

is getting older. The older age groups are projected to 

make up an increasing share of the population in the next 

decade. 

Those aged 16 to 24 years represented 16.1 percent of 

the civilian noninstitutional population in 2006 and are 

projected to represent 14.6 percent of that population in 

2016. The prime-aged population constituted 54.6 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population in 2006 

and is projected to decrease to 50.6 percent in 2016. The 

older population increased its relative share of the civilian 

noninstitutional population from 26.3 percent in 1996 to 

29.3 percent in 2006. The BLS projects that this group will 

account for nearly 35.0 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population in 2016. The 55- to 64-year age group 

is expected to increase its share to more than 16.0 percent 

during the next decade, a share comparable to that held by 

16- to 24-year-olds in the 2006 civilian noninstitutional 

population. The 65- to 74-year age group is projected to 

increase its share to nearly 11 percent of the total civilian 

noninstitutional population in 2016.

The 55-years-and-older age group will likely be the 

fastest-growing segment of the population, with a projected annual growth rate of 2.7 percent during the next 

decade. The fastest-growing age group within this category will likely be the 65- to 74-year-olds, with a projected 

growth rate of nearly 4.0 percent per year, followed by 

•

•

•

•

•

the 55- to 64-year-olds, with an anticipated 2.7-percent 

annual growth rate. In 2016, baby boomers will be mostly 

out of the prime age group and will be between 52 and 70 

years old. 

Since the passage of the Immigration and Naturalization Act of 1965, immigration has been the major source 

of racial and ethnic diversity in the U.S. population. Hispanics and Asians have seen their shares of the population 

increase through immigration in the past several decades. 

These two groups, which have grown the fastest in the 

past, are projected to continue to grow at higher rates over 

the next 10 years. Much as in 2004–14, the growth rates 

of these groups are expected to be much faster than the 

rates for white non-Hispanics. Over the 2006–16 decade, 

the Asian and Hispanic civilian noninstitutional populations are each anticipated to grow at an annual rate of 2.7 

percent. The black civilian noninstitutional population is 

projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.4 percent, while 

the white non-Hispanic population is expected to trail, 

with a projected annual growth rate of 0.3 percent.

Labor force participation rates 

The aggregate labor force participation rate is the weighted sum of all the age-specific rates, in which the weights 

are the population distributions of each group. At 67.1 

percent, the aggregate participation rate of the labor force 

was highest between 1997 and 2000. Every year after 2000, 

the rate declined gradually, from 66.8 percent in 2001 to 

66.0 percent in 2004 and 2005. In 2006, it edged up by 

0.2 percent. According to BLS projections, the overall participation rate will continue its gradual decrease, reaching 

65.5 percent in 2016. (See table 3.) 

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity are among the main factors 

responsible for the changes in the labor force participation 

rate. The remainder of this section discusses each in turn.

Participation rate by age: youths (16 to 24 years). The youth 

labor market consists of teenagers and young adults, two 

groups that have experienced different labor force participation rates in the past. In one respect, however, both 

groups are the same: the long-term trends in their participation rates have been on a continual decline.

The 16- to 24-year age group had a participation rate of 

68.6 percent in 1986. The rate decreased by 3.1 percentage 

points, to 65.5, by 1996. Ten years later, in 2006, it again 

declined, this time by nearly 5 percentage points, to 60.6 

percent.

Among youths, the 16- to 19-year age group’s participation rate declined from 52.3 percent in 1996 to 43.7 
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 39

Civilian labor force participation rates, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006,

and projected 2016

Table 3.

Group

Participation rate

1986 1996 2006 2016 1996–

2006

1986–

96

Percentage-point change

 

Total, 16 years and older............... 65.3 66.8 66.2 65.5 1.5 –0.6 –0.7 0.2 –0.1 –0.1

 16 to 24........................................ 68.6 65.5 60.6 57.1 –3.1 –4.9 –3.5 –.5 –.8 –.6

 16 to 19...................................... 54.7 52.3 43.7 37.5 –2.4 –8.6 –6.2 –.4 –1.8 –1.5

 20 to 24...................................... 78.9 76.8 74.6 71.8 –2.1 –2.2 –2.8 –.3 –.3 –.4

 25 to 54........................................ 82.0 83.8 82.9 83.6 1.8 –.9 .7 .2 –.1 .1

 25 to 34...................................... 82.9 84.1 83.0 85.4 1.2 –1.1 2.4 .1 –.1 .3

 35 to 44...................................... 83.7 84.6 83.8 83.3 .9 –.8 –.5 .1 –.1 –.1

 45 to 54...................................... 78.0 82.1 81.9 82.1 4.1 –.2 .2 .5 .0 .0

 55 and older................................. 30.1 30.3 38.0 42.8 .2 7.7 4.8 .1 2.3 1.2

 55 to 64...................................... 54.0 57.9 63.7 66.7 3.9 5.8 3.0 .7 1.0 .5

 65 to 74...................................... 15.2 17.5 23.6 29.5 2.3 6.1 5.9 1.4 3.0 2.3

 75 and older............................... 4.0 4.7 6.4 10.5 .7 1.7 4.1 1.6 3.1 5.1

Men, 16 years and older ............... 76.3 74.9 73.5 72.3 –1.4 –1.4 –1.2 –.2 –.2 –.2

 16 to 24........................................ 73.0 68.8 63.3 59.3 –4.2 –5.5 –4.0 –.6 –.8 –.7

 16 to 19...................................... 56.4 53.2 43.7 36.8 –3.2 –9.5 –6.9 –6 –1.9 –1.7

 20 to 24...................................... 85.8 82.5 79.6 76.4 –3.3 –2.9 –3.2 –.4 –.4 –.4

 25 to 54........................................ 93.8 91.8 90.6 91.3 –2.0 –1.2 .7 –.2 –.1 .1

 25 to 34...................................... 94.6 93.2 91.7 95.7 –1.4 –1.5 4.0 –.1 –.2 .4

 35 to 44...................................... 94.8 92.4 92.1 91.7 –2.4 –.3 –.4 –.3 .0 .0

 45 to 54...................................... 91.0 89.1 88.1 86.6 –1.9 –1.0 –1.5 –.2 –.1 –.2

 55 and older................................. 40.4 38.3 44.9 48.3 –2.1 6.6 3.4 –.5 1.6 .7

 55 to 64...................................... 67.3 67.0 69.6 70.1 –.3 2.6 .5 .0 .4 .1

 65 to 74...................................... 20.5 22.9 28.8 34.6 2.4 5.9 5.8 1.1 2.3 1.8

 75 and older............................... 6.7 7.3 9.5 14.7 .6 2.2 5.2 .9 2.7 4.5

Women, 16 years and older.......... 55.3 59.3 59.4 59.2 4.0 .1 –.2 .7 .0 .0

 16 to 24........................................ 64.3 62.2 57.9 54.8 –2.1 –4.3 –3.1 –3 –.7 –.5

 16 to 19...................................... 53.0 51.3 43.7 38.3 –1.7 –7.6 –5.4 –.3 –1.6 –1.3

 20 to 24...................................... 72.4 71.3 69.5 67.2 –1.1 –1.8 –2.3 –.2 –3 –.3

 25 to 54........................................ 70.8 76.1 75.5 76.0 5.3 –.6 .5 .7 –.1 .1

 25 to 34...................................... 71.6 75.2 74.4 75.0 3.6 –.8 .6 .5 –.1 .1

 35 to 44...................................... 73.1 77.5 75.9 75.1 4.4 –1.6 –.8 .6 –.2 –.1

 45 to 54...................................... 65.9 75.4 76.0 77.8 9.5 .6 1.8 1.4 .1 .2

 55 and older................................. 22.1 23.9 32.3 38.1 1.8 8.4 5.8 .8 3.1 1.7

 55 to 64...................................... 42.3 49.6 58.2 63.5 7.3 8.6 5.3 1.6 1.6 .9

 65 to 74...................................... 11.0 13.1 19.2 25.1 2.1 6.1 5.9 1.8 3.9 2.7

 75 and older............................... 2.4 3.1 4.4 7.6 .7 1.3 3.2 2.6 3.6 5.7

White, 16 years and older ............. 65.5 67.2 66.3 65.5 1.7 –.9 –.8 .3 –.1 –.1

 Men.............................................. 76.9 75.8 74.1 72.9 –1.1 –1.7 –1.2 –.1 –.2 –.2

 Women......................................... 55.0 59.1 58.9 58.4 4.1 –.2 –.5 .7 .0 –.1

Black, 16 years and older.............. 63.3 64.1 63.8 64.9 .8 –.3 1.1 .1 .0 .2

 Men.............................................. 71.2 68.7 66.7 67.1 –2.5 –2.0 .4 –.4 –.3 .1

 Women......................................... 56.9 60.4 61.5 63.1 3.5 1.1 1.6 .6 .2 .3

Asian, 16 years and older ............. 65.5 65.8 65.9 65.9 .3 .1 .0 .0 .0 .0

 Men.............................................. 75.0 73.4 75.0 74.1 –1.6 1.6 –.9 –.2 .2 –.1

 Women......................................... 57.0 58.8 57.6 58.7 1.8 –1.2 1.1 .3 –.2 .2

All other race groups1 .................. – – 67.0 68.9 – – 1.9 – – .3

 Men.............................................. – – 74.0 71.4 – – –2.6 – – –.4

 Women......................................... – – 60.3 66.4 – – 6.1 – – 1.0

Hispanic origin, 16 years and older 65.4 66.5 68.6 68.6 1.1 2.1 .0 .2 .3 .0

 Men.............................................. 81.0 79.6 80.4 79.0 –1.4 .8 –1.4 –.2 .1 –.2

 Women......................................... 50.1 53.4 56.1 57.8 3.3 2.7 1.7 .6 .5 .3

Other than Hispanic origin, 

 16 years and older....................... 65.2 66.8 65.8 65.0 1.6 –1.0 –.8 .2 –.2 –.1

 Men.............................................. 75.9 74.4 72.3 70.9 –1.5 –2.1 –1.3 –.2 –.3 –.2

 Women......................................... 55.7 59.9 59.8 59.4 4.2 .0 –.4 .7 .0 –.1

White non-Hispanic, 16 years 

 and older.................................... 65.5 67.3 65.9 65.0 1.8 –1.4 –.9 .3 –.2 –.1

 Men.............................................. 76.5 75.3 73.0 71.6 –1.2 –2.3 –1.4 –.2 –.3 –.2

 Women......................................... 55.4 59.8 59.3 58.8 4.4 –.5 –.5 .8 –.1 –.1

1986–

96

Annual growth rate

1996–

2006

2006–

16

2006–

16

[In percent]

1

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) those classified 

as being of mutiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) 

American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islanders. Dash indicates no data collected for category.
Labor Force

40 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

percent in 2006, a considerable decrease of 8.6 percentage 

points. The rate for 20- to 24-year-olds also declined, but 

not as sharply, moving from 76.8 percent in 1996 to 74.6 

percent in 2006. The difference in the two groups’ rates 

of nearly 31 percentage points in 2006 was the result of 

differing shares of those enrolled in school and those not 

enrolled in school. 

Two factors have played a major role in youths’ falling labor force participation rates. First, increasing school 

attendance at all levels, especially secondary schools and 

colleges, has resulted in decreases in the participation rate 

of the student portion of the youth population.12 Second, 

business cycle downturns have contributed to the declining participation rate of the nonstudent segment of the 

youth labor force. In general, having too little experience 

makes youths vulnerable during recessions, and they usually are the first group to be fired and the last to be hired. 

The BLS projects that the downward trend in the participation rates of 16- to 19-year-olds and 20- to 24-yearolds will continue. As a result, the participation rate of 

the former group is expected to decline further, to 37.5 

percent, and the participation rate of the latter group is 

anticipated to decline as well, to 71.8 percent. Because of 

these declining rates, the participation rate of the overall 

group of 16- to 24-year-olds is projected to decrease to 

57.1 percent in 2016.

Participation rate by age: prime-aged workers (25 to 54 

years). Historically, all age groups within the primeworking-age group have the strongest attachment to the 

labor market. Over the 1986–2006 period, the overall 

labor force participation rate of this group fluctuated between a low of 82 percent and a high of nearly 84 percent. 

This trend is projected to continue, with the rate standing 

at an expected 83.6 percent in 2016. The most active age 

group in the prime-aged group is the 25- to 34-year-olds, 

whose participation rate was 83.0 percent in 2006 and is 

projected to increase to 85.4 percent in 2016. 

Both men and women have contributed to the strong 

labor force participation rate of the prime-aged group in 

the past. The activity rate of 25-to 54-year-old men was 

90.6 percent in 2006 and is projected to increase to 91.3 

percent in 2016. The participation rate of 25-to 54-yearold women was 75.5 percent in 2006 and is expected to 

rise to 76.0 percent in the next decade.

Participation rate by age: older age group (55 years and 

older). This group is the only one among all the age 

groups that has experienced strong growth in its participation rate in the labor market during the last two decades. 

The labor force participation rate of the group was relatively flat in the 1970s and much of the 1980s. By 1986, 

however, as well as in 1996, the activity rate of the group 

was about 30.0 percent. A decade later, in 2006, the rate 

was a significantly higher 38.0 percent. The BLS projects 

that the labor force participation rate of this age group will 

continue to exhibit strong growth, reaching nearly 42.8 

percent in 2016. The two age groups of 65- to 74-yearolds and those 75 years and older had significantly strong 

growth in their participation rates during the 1996–2006 

timeframe. Both subgroups are projected to continue to 

show a strong presence in the future labor force.

The increase in the participation rate of the mature 

worker can be traced to a number of reasons:

Older individuals are leading healthier and much 

longer lives than in the past. Both the likelihood of 

working and the opportunity to work longer years 

increase with longer, healthier lives. 

Today’s older individuals are more educated than 

their counterparts of the past. Higher education levels 

result in higher participation in the labor market.

The trend away from defined benefit pension plans 

and toward defined contribution plans13 acts as an 

incentive for the older workforce to stay in the labor 

market for longer intervals. Defined benefit pension 

plans encourage early retirement, before the plan’s 

normal retirement age. By contrast, defined contribution plans are based on an individual’s contribution, 

the employer’s contribution, and the investment returns on those contributions. Also, defined contribution plans are indifferent to the worker’s retirement 

age. Hence, workers have more of an incentive to 

remain working and continue contributing to those 

plans, putting off their retirement so that they can 

reap greater rewards in the future. 

In 2000, the full retirement age for Social Security benefits began a scheduled increase. The recent 

changes in Social Security laws delayed the eligible 

age for full retirement benefits for certain birth dates 

and decreased the benefits for early retirement. These 

changes are intended to discourage workers from retiring earlier and to encourage the continuation of 

their labor market activity.

The high cost of health insurance and a decrease in 

health benefits, especially at older ages, has obliged 

•

•

•

•

•
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 41

many mature workers to remain working in order 

to keep their employer-based health insurance or to 

go back to work after retirement in order to obtain 

health insurance through their work.14

In the 1970s and 1980s, the entry of young baby boomers into the labor market in large numbers and their subsequent staying on as prime-age workers made for rapid 

growth in the labor force. The retirement of older workers 

made room for the employment of these younger workers. 

Now, as the growth of the labor force slows, the increase in 

the labor force participation rate of older workers may keep 

labor force growth from slowing even further in the future.

Participation rate by sex. The participation rates of men 

and women have historically followed different trends. 

Until 1999, the men’s participation rate was continually 

decreasing, while the women’s rate was continually increasing. The men’s rate was higher not only in the aggregate, but also for every detailed age group, up until 

2006. That year, the labor force participation rates of 16- 

to 19-year-old men and women were the same: 43.7. The 

labor force participation of 16- to 19-year-old women 

is projected to surpass that of men of the same age by 

2016.

Men. Continuing its decreasing trend, the men’s participation rate registered 74.9 percent in 1996 and 73.5 

percent in 2006. The rate is expected to decline further, to 

72.3 percent in 2016. (See chart 1.)

Men 16 to 24 years old also experienced significant 

reductions in their participation rates, from 68.8 percent 

in 1996 to 63.3 percent in 2006. The rate for this group 

of men is expected to decline yet further, to 59.3 percent 

by 2016.

The participation rate of 25- to 54-year-old men has 

been relatively flat, registering 91.8 percent in 1996 and 

90.6 percent in 2006. The rate is projected to increase to 

91.3 percent in 2016.

The participation rate of men 55 years and older has 

been accelerating since 1998. In 1996, their rate stood 

at 38.3 percent. Over the next 10 years, it increased by 

6.6 percentage points, to 44.9 percent in 2006. The rate 

is expected to continue increasing, until it reaches 48.3 

percent in 2016.

Women. Continuing its historical increase, the labor force 

participation rate of women registered 55.3 percent in 1986, 

59.3 percent in 1996, and 59.4 percent in 2006. The trend, 

however, appears to have reached its peak, and the rapid 

increase of the 1970–90 era is over. The rate is projected to 

fall slightly, to 59.2 percent in 2016. (See chart 2.)

Women 16 to 24 years old had a labor force participation rate of 64.3 percent in 1986. The rate fell to 62.2 

percent in 1996 and then to 57.9 percent in 2006. This 

decline is projected to continue, so that, in 2016, the rate 

is anticipated to be 54.8 percent.

Women aged 25 to 54 years experienced a slight decrease in their labor force participation rate, from 76.1 

percent in 1996 to 75.5 percent in 2006. The rate is projected to be 76.0 percent in 2016.

The only statistically significant change in the participation rate of women occurred among those 55 years and 

older. The participation rate of this age group was 22.1 

percent in 1986 and 23.9 percent in 1996. Then, over the 

next decade, it rose by 8.4 percentage points, registering 

32.3 percent in 2006. This rapid increase is projected to 

continue, but at a lesser pace of 5.8 percentage points, 

from 2006 to 2016, reaching 38.1 percent the latter year.

Since the seventies, the strong expansion of the labor 

force participation rate of women has compensated for 

the declining activity rate of men, pushing the overall labor force participation rate upward on an increasing trend. 

The women’s participation rate having reached its peak is 

another reason that the overall labor force participation 

rate is expected to decline gradually in the future.

Participation rate by race and Hispanic origin. The change 

in the labor force participation rate over the past couple of 

decades has been different among the various race groups, 

as well as for the Hispanic ethnic group.

Whites. Among whites, the labor force participation rate 

increased by 1.7 percentage points from 1986, reaching 

67.2 percent in 1996. By 2006, the rate had fallen to 66.3 

percent. The rate is projected to decrease further, to 65.5 

percent in 2016, the same as it was in 1986.

Blacks. The labor force participation rate of blacks, which 

was 63.3 percent in 1986, rose to 64.1 percent in 1996. 

By 2006, it had decreased to 63.8 percent. BLS projects 

that the rate will increase during the next decade, reaching 

64.9 percent in 2016.

Asians. The labor force participation rate of Asians was 

65.5 percent in 1986, the same as that for whites. The rate 

increased to 65.9 percent in 2006, and BLS projects that it 

will be the same in 2016.

White non-Hispanics. Among white non-Hispanics, the 
Labor Force

42 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

Chart 1. Labor force participation rates of men, 1986–2006 and projected 2016

Percent Percent 

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

 0

100

80

60

40

20

0

1986 1996 2006 2016

Chart 2. Labor force participation rates of women, 1986–2006 and projected 2016

Percent Percent 

100

 80

 60

 40

 20

 0

100

80

60

40

20

0

1986 1996 2006 2016

55 years and older

25–54 years

Total

16–24 years 

25–54 years

16–24 years 

55 years and older

Total
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 43

labor force participation rate, 65.5 percent in 1986, increased by 1.8 percentage points and reached 67.3 percent 

in 1996. By 2006, the white non-Hispanic labor force 

participation rate had fallen to 65.9 percent. The rate of 

this group is projected to decline further, to 65.0 percent 

in 2016.

Hispanics. From 1986 to 2006, Hispanics experienced 

the largest increase in their labor force participation rate. 

At 65.4 percent in 1986, the rate increased by a significant 

1.1 percentage points, to 66.5 percent in 1996. Then, during the 1996–2006 period, Hispanics increased their participation rate by another 2.1 percentage points, to 68.6 

percent. The labor force participation rate of Hispanics is 

projected to continue to be strong over the next decade.

Among the different racial and ethnic groups, Hispanics will have one of the highest labor force participation 

rates in 2016. Large numbers of immigrants coming to 

the United States today and into the foreseeable future 

are Hispanics. Because immigrants generally come in 

search of better job opportunities and higher wages, they 

have high labor force participation rates. Both factors—

the huge numbers of Hispanics entering the country in 

search of better and higher paying jobs and their higher 

participation rates—make for a higher growth rate of the 

Hispanic labor force in the 2006–16 decade.

Projected changes in the labor force 

In 1980, the baby boomers were between 16 and 34 years 

old and were entering the labor market in large numbers. 

As a result, the U.S. labor force experienced a significant 

annual growth rate of 1.3 percent during the 1986–96 

decade. (See table 4.) In addition, over the same time 

span, the women’s labor force participation rate expanded 

significantly, causing the overall participation rate, as well 

as the overall labor force, to rise dramatically. In the next 

decade, from 1996 to 2006, the annual growth rate of the 

labor force declined to 1.2 percent. BLS labor force projections point to a significantly lower labor force growth 

of 0.8 percent per year for the 2006–16 period.

Labor force growth is derived from a combination of 

changes in the overall labor force participation rate and 

changes in population. As a result of the aging of the population, population growth has slowed down in the past 

decade. In addition, the labor force participation rate has 

decreased in recent years. The result is that, although the 

rate of growth of the population for the 2006–16 period is 

projected to be 0.9 percent, because of the decrease in the 

labor force participation rate, the labor force is projected 

to grow at a slower rate (0.8 percent) than the workingage population.

The labor force increased from 117.8 million in 1986 to 

133.9 million in 1996, an increase of 16.1 million. During the 1996–2006 period, the labor force rose by another 

17.5 million, reaching 151.4 million in 2006. Over the 

next 10 years, on the basis of population projections from 

the Census Bureau, it is expected that the workforce will 

increase by nearly 13 million, to reach 164.2 million in 

2016.

Age. The youth labor force declined from 23.4 million 

in 1986 to 22.4 million in 2006. The BLS projects that, by 

2016, the youth labor force will decrease further, to 20.9 

million, a level much lower than any registered at any time 

during the previous three decades. 

The prime-aged labor force was 79.6 million in 1986 

and 96.8 million in 1996, an increase of more than 17 

million. Over the 1996–2016 period, 6.8 million workers 

were added to this group, for a total of 103.6 million. It is 

projected that over the next decade the prime-aged labor 

force will increase by 2.5 million more, reaching 106.0 

million. This age group’s share of the total labor force has 

been on a declining trend since 1996. Prime-aged workers 

accounted for 72.3 percent of the labor force in 1996 and 

68.4 percent in 2006; their share is projected to decrease to 

64.6 percent in 2016. The annual growth rate of the group 

is expected to be 0.2 percent during the next decade.

As a result of the relatively rapid growth of the older 

population and considerable increases in their labor force 

participation rates, the labor force of the 55-years-andolder age group has been growing significantly in the past 

two decades. The labor force will continue to age, with 

the number of workers in the 55-years-and-older group 

projected to grow by 46.7 percentage points, more than 5 

times the 8.5-percentage-point growth projected for the 

overall labor force. The number of workers in the older 

age group is anticipated to grow by nearly 12 million during the 2006–16 period, the fastest growth among all age 

groups and an increase representing a 3.9-percent annual 

growth rate. 

Within the 55-years-and-older group, 55- to 64-yearolds are expected to add 7.3 million workers to their numbers during the 2006–16 decade. Nearly 20 million in the 

2006 labor force, they are projected to number more than 

27 million in the labor force of 2016. As a result, the annual labor force growth rate of this age group will be 3.2 

percent over the next decade. Similarly growing, the 65- 

to 74-year age group is expected to increase its number in 

the labor force from 4.4 million in 2006 to more than 8.0 
Labor Force

44 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

Table 4. Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

Group

Level

1996

2006

1986–

96 2006 2006–

16

1996–

2006

1986–

96

Change

Total, 16 

 years and 

 older......... 117,834 133,943 151,428 164,232 16,109 17,485 12,804 13.7 13.1 8.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

 16 to 24.... 23,367 21,183 22,394 20,852 –2,184 1,211 –1,542 –9.3 5.7 –6.9 –1.0 .6 –.7 19.8 15.8 14.8 12.7 

 16 to 19.. 7,926 7,806 7,281 5,896 –120 –525 –1,385 –1.5 –6.7 –19.0 –.2 –.7 –2.1 6.7 5.8 4.8 3.6 

 20 to 24.. 15,441 13,377 15,113 14,955 –2,064 1,736 –158 –13.4 13.0 –1.0 –1.4 1.2 –.1 13.1 10.0 10.0 9.1 

 25 to 54.... 79,563 96,786 103,566 106,026 17,223 6,780 2,460 21.6 7.0 2.4 2.0 .7 .2 67.5 72.3 68.4 64.6 

 25 to 34.. 34,591 33,833 32,573 37,289 –758 –1,260 4,716 –2.2 –3.7 14.5 –.2 –.4 1.4 29.4 25.3 21.5 22.7 

 35 to 44.. 27,232 36,556 35,848 33,654 9,324 –708 –2,194 34.2 –1.9 –6.1 3.0 –.2 –.6 23.1 27.3 23.7 20.5 

 45 to 54.. 17,739 26,397 35,146 35,083 8,658 8,749 –63 48.8 33.1 –.2 4.1 2.9 .0 15.1 19.7 23.2 21.4 

 55 and 

 older....... 14,904 15,974 25,468 37,354 1,070 9,494 11,886 7.2 59.4 46.7 .7 4.8 3.9 12.6 11.9 16.8 22.7 

 55 to 64.. 11,894 12,146 19,984 27,288 252 7,838 7,304 2.1 64.5 36.5 .2 5.1 3.2 10.1 9.1 13.2 16.6 

 65 to 74.. 2,594 3,194 4,404 8,076 600 1,210 3,672 23.1 37.9 83.4 2.1 3.3 6.3 2.2 2.4 2.9 4.9 

 75 and 

 older....... 417 634 1,080 1,990 217 446 910 52.0 70.3 84.3 4.3 5.5 6.3 .4 .5 .7 1.2

Men, 16 

 years and 

 older......... 65,422 72,087 81,255 87,781 6,665 9,168 6,526 10.2 12.7 8.0 1.0 1.2 .8 55.5 53.8 53.7 53.4 

 16 to 24.... 12,250 11,147 11,810 10,915 –1,103 663 –895 –9.0 5.9 –7.6 –.9 .6 –.8 10.4 8.3 7.8 6.6 

 16 to 19.. 4,102 4,043 3,693 2,923 –59 –350 –770 –1.4 –8.7 –20.9 –.1 –.9 –2.3 3.5 3.0 2.4 1.8 

 20 to 24.. 8,148 7,104 8,116 7,992 –1,044 1,012 –124 –12.8 14.2 –1.5 –1.4 1.3 –.2 6.9 5.3 5.4 4.9 

 25 to 54.... 44,406 51,999 55,840 57,491 7,593 3,841 1,651 17.1 7.4 3.0 1.6 .7 .3 37.7 38.8 36.9 35.0 

 25 to 34.. 19,383 18,430 17,944 20,913 –953 –486 2,969 –4.9 –2.6 16.5 –.5 –.3 1.5 16.4 13.8 11.8 12.7 

 35 to 44.. 15,029 19,602 19,407 18,373 4,573 –195 –1,034 30.4 –1.0 –5.3 2.7 –.1 –.5 12.8 14.6 12.8 11.2 

 45 to 54.. 9,994 13,967 18,489 18,205 3,973 4,522 –284 39.8 32.4 –1.5 3.4 2.8 –.2 8.5 10.4 12.2 11.1 

 55 and 

 older....... 8,765 8,941 13,605 19,376 176 4,664 5,771 2.0 52.2 42.4 .2 4.3 3.6 7.4 6.7 9.0 11.8 

 55 to 64.. 6,954 6,693 10,509 13,865 –261 3,816 3,356 –3.8 57.0 31.9 –.4 4.6 2.8 5.9 5.0 6.9 8.4 

 65 to 74.. 1,552 1,872 2,466 4,387 320 594 1,921 20.6 31.7 77.9 1.9 2.8 5.9 1.3 1.4 1.6 2.7 

 75 and 

 older....... 260 375 630 1,124 115 255 494 44.2 68.0 78.4 3.7 5.3 6.0 .2 .3 .4 .7 

Women, 16 

 years and 

 older......... 52,413 61,856 70,173 76,450 9,443 8,317 6,277 18.0 13.4 8.9 1.7 1.3 .9 44.5 46.2 46.3 46.6 

 16 to 24.... 11,117 10,036 10,584 9,937 –1,081 548 –647 –9.7 5.5 –6.1 –1.0 .5 –.6 9.4 7.5 7.0 6.1 

 16 to 19.. 3,824 3,763 3,588 2,974 –61 –175 –614 –1.6 –4.7 –17.1 –.2 –.5 –1.9 3.2 2.8 2.4 1.8 

 20 to 24.. 7,293 6,273 6,997 6,963 –1,020 724 –34 –14.0 11.5 –.5 –1.5 1.1 .0 6.2 4.7 4.6 4.2 

 25 to 54.... 35,158 44,787 47,726 48,534 9,629 2,939 808 27.4 6.6 1.7 2.5 .6 .2 29.8 33.4 31.5 29.6 

 25 to 34.. 15,208 15,403 14,628 16,376 195 –775 1,748 1.3 –5.0 11.9 .1 –.5 1.1 12.9 11.5 9.7 10.0 

 35 to 44.. 12,204 16,954 16,441 15,281 4,750 –513 –1,160 38.9 –3.0 –7.1 3.3 –.3 –.7 10.4 12.7 10.9 9.3 

 45 to 54.. 7,746 12,430 16,656 16,877 4,684 4,226 221 60.5 34.0 1.3 4.8 3.0 .1 6.6 9.3 11.0 10.3 

 55 and 

 older....... 6,139 7,033 11,863 17,979 894 4,830 6,116 14.6 68.7 51.6 1.4 5.4 4.2 5.2 5.3 7.8 10.9 

 55 to 64.. 4,940 5,452 9,475 13,423 512 4,023 3,948 10.4 73.8 41.7 1.0 5.7 3.5 4.2 4.1 6.3 8.2 

 65 to 74.. 1,042 1,321 1,937 3,689 279 616 1,752 26.8 46.6 90.4 2.4 3.9 6.7 .9 1.0 1.3 2.2 

 75 and 

 older....... 159 260 451 867 101 191 416 63.5 73.5 92.2 5.0 5.7 6.8 .1 .2 .3 .5

White......... 101,801 113,108 123,834 130,665 11,307 10,726 6,831 11.1 9.5 5.5 1.1 .9 .5 86.4 84.4 81.8 79.6 

 Men.......... 57,217 61,783 67,613 71,283 4,566 5,830 3,670 8.0 9.4 5.4 .8 .9 .5 48.6 46.1 44.7 43.4 

 Women..... 44,584 51,325 56,221 59,382 6,741 4,896 3,161 15.1 9.5 5.6 1.4 .9 .5 37.8 38.3 37.1 36.2 

Black ......... 12,654 15,134 17,314 20,121 2,480 2,180 2,807 19.6 14.4 16.2 1.8 1.4 1.5 10.7 11.3 11.4 12.3 

 Men.......... 6,373 7,264 8,128 9,420 891 864 1,292 14.0 11.9 15.9 1.3 1.1 1.5 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.7 

 Women..... 6,281 7,869 9,186 10,701 1,588 1,317 1,515 25.3 16.7 16.5 2.3 1.6 1.5 5.3 5.9 6.1 6.5

1986

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1996 2006 2006–

16

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1996–

2006

2006–

16 2016

Percent

change

1986–

96 1986 1996 2016

See footnote at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 45

million in 2016, due to significant increases in the group’s 

participation rates. The annual labor force growth rate of 

this age group will be 6.3 percent over the next decade. 

The 75-years-and-older labor force also is expected to 

grow at a significant annual growth rate of 6.3 percent, to 

a total of nearly 2 million in 2016.

Sex. The labor force of women grew much faster (at an 

annual rate of 1.7 percent) than that of men (1.0 percent) 

in the 1986–96 period. In the decade that followed, the 

growth rate of the women’s labor force declined substantially, to 1.3 percent, while the growth rate of the men’s labor force rose to 1.2 percent. The BLS projects that the labor 

force growth rate of women will be 0.9 percent in 2006–16, 

a figure slightly higher than that of men, which is expected 

to be 0.8 percent. The growth rate of the women’s labor 

force during the past three decades has greatly increased 

the share of women in the labor force. The slight difference 

between the projected growth rates of men and women will 

result in the women’s share of the labor force rising to 46.6 

percent, and the men’s share declining to 53.4 percent, from 

2006 to 2016. This small difference also has contributed to 

a narrowing of the gender gap in both the labor force participation rate and overall labor force numbers.

Race and ethnicity. The growing labor force shares of 

Hispanics, Asians, blacks, and the category “all other 

groups” has been an important development of the past 

several decades. As a result of continued immigration, 

both the population and the labor force are expected to 

diversify further. The BLS projects a continuation of this 

trend during the next 10 years.

White non-Hispanics, who accounted for nearly 80 

percent of the labor force in 1986 and 75 percent in 1996, 

Continued—Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016 Table 4.

Group

Level

1996

2006

1986–

96 2006 2006–

16

1996–

2006

1986–

96

Change

Asian ......... 3,379 5,701 6,727 8,741 2,322 1,026 2,014 68.7 18.0 29.9 5.4 1.7 2.7 2.9 4.3 4.4 5.3 

 Men.......... 1,831 3,039 3,621 4,600 1,208 582 979 66.0 19.2 27.0 5.2 1.8 2.4 1.6 2.3 2.4 2.8 

 Women..... 1,548 2,662 3,106 4,141 1,114 444 1,035 72.0 16.7 33.3 5.6 1.6 2.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.5 

All other 

 groups1 .... – – 3,553 4,705 – – 1,152 – – 32.4 – – 2.8 – – 2.3 2.9 

 Men.......... – – 1,893 2,478 – – 585 – – 30.9 – – 2.7 – – 1.3 1.5 

 Women..... – – 1,660 2,227 – – 567 – – 34.2 – – 3.0 – – 1.1 1.4 

Hispanic 

 origin........ 8,076 12,774 20,694 26,889 4,698 7,920 6,195 58.2 62.0 29.9 4.7 4.9 2.7 6.9 9.5 13.7 16.4 

 Men.......... 4,948 7,646 12,488 15,802 2,698 4,842 3,314 54.5 63.3 26.5 4.4 5.0 2.4 4.2 5.7 8.2 9.6 

 Women..... 3,128 5,128 8,206 11,087 2,000 3,078 2,881 63.9 60.0 35.1 5.1 4.8 3.1 2.7 3.8 5.4 6.8 

 

Other than 

 Hispanic 

 origin........ 109,758 121,169 130,734 137,343 11,411 9,565 6,609 10.4 7.9 5.1 1.0 .8 .5 93.1 90.5 86.3 83.6 

 Men.......... 60,474 64,441 68,767 71,979 3,967 4,326 3,212 6.6 6.7 4.7 .6 .7 .5 51.3 48.1 45.4 43.8 

 Women..... 49,285 56,728 61,967 65,363 7,443 5,239 3,396 15.1 9.2 5.5 1.4 .9 .5 41.8 42.4 40.9 39.8 

White non-

 Hispanic ... 94,027 100,915 104,629 106,133 6,888 3,714 1,504 7.3 3.7 1.4 .7 .4 .1 79.8 75.3 69.1 64.6 

 Men.......... 52,447 54,451 55,953 56,791 2,004 1,502 838 3.8 2.8 1.5 .4 .3 .1 44.5 40.7 37.0 34.6 

 Women..... 41,579 46,464 48,676 49,342 4,885 2,212 666 11.7 4.8 1.4 1.1 .5 .1 35.3 34.7 32.1 30.0 

1986

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1996 2006 2006–

16

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1996–

2006

2006–

16 2016

Percent

change

1986–

96 1986 1996 2016

1 The “All other groups" category includes (1) those classified 

as of being of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of 

(2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and 

Other Pacific Islanders. Dash indicates no data collected for category. 
Labor Force

46 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

are projected to still be the largest group in 2016. However, their share is expected to fall to nearly 65 percent of 

the labor force that year. The white non-Hispanic labor 

force is anticipated to increase by 1.5 million over the 

2006–16 period, reaching 106 million at the end of the 

decade.

Blacks, Hispanics, and Asians are projected to increase their 

labor force numbers at faster rates than White non-Hispanics and to constitute a larger share of the labor force in 2016. 

Asians are expected to be one of the fastest growing groups, 

with a 2.7-percent annual growth rate over the 2006–16 period. The Asian share of the labor force is projected to expand 

from 4.4 percent in 2006 to 5.3 percent in 2016. Still, their 

share of the total labor force is expected to remain the smallest 

among the four major race and ethnic groups.

The black share of the labor force is projected to expand 

from 11.4 percent in 2006 to 12.3 percent in 2016, representing an annual growth rate of 1.5 percent over the 

2006–16 decade.

The Hispanic labor force grew at comparatively high 

annual growth rates of 4.7 percent during 1986-96 and 

4.9 percent over the 1996–2006 period. Their share is expected to more than double, from nearly 7 percent of the 

labor force in 1986 to more than 16 percent in 2016. On 

the basis of the most recent immigration trends, the largest share of immigrants to the United States has been of 

Hispanic origin. Hispanics are projected to increase their 

numbers in the 2016 labor force by more than 6 million 

over the 2006 figure, so that by 2016 there will be nearly 

27 million Hispanics in the labor force.

Labor force dynamics

The labor force is expected to grow by nearly 13 million 

during the 2006–16 timeframe. This increase is based on 

dynamic changes that underlie the movement of workers 

into and out of the labor force. (See table 5.) The dynamics of labor force change from 2006 through 2016 emerge 

from three distinct groups—entrants, leavers, and stayers:

Entrants are those who were not in the labor force in 

2006, but who will enter during the period and will 

be in the labor force in 2016.

Leavers are those who were in the labor force in 

2006, but who will leave during the period and will 

not be in the labor force in 2016.

Stayers are those who were in the labor force in 2006 

and will remain in it through 2016.15

•

•

•

To the extent that the demographic composition of entrants and leavers between 2006 and 2016 is different 

from the composition of those now in the labor force, the 

2016 labor force will be different from today’s labor force. 

Thus, the labor force of 2016 may be regarded as consisting of the labor force of 2006, plus the entrants minus the 

leavers.

The BLS projects that, between 2006 and 2016, 37.3 

million workers will enter the labor force and 24.2 million 

will leave. These figures compare with 35.8 million entrants and 19.6 million leavers over the 1996–2006 period. 

Therefore, in the 2006–16 period, about 1.5 million more 

people would be entering the labor force compared with 

the previous period. However, around 4.6 million more 

people are expected to leave the workforce in the 2006–16 

period than left during the 1996–2006 period. 

In the 1996–2006 period, 54.2 percent of the entrants 

were men and 45.8 percent women. This trend is expected 

to continue during the 2006–16 period as the number 

of men entering the labor force exceeds the number of 

women. The leavers are more likely to be men, because 

the men’s labor force is older than the women’s and more 

of the men are of retirement age. According to BLS projections, by the end of the 2006–16 decade, 20.4 million 

men will have joined, and nearly 14 million men will have 

left, the labor force, resulting in a labor force of nearly 88 

million men in 2016. Similarly, nearly 17 million women 

will have joined, and 10.3 million women will have left, 

the labor force, resulting in a labor force of 76.5 million 

women in 2016, or a gain of 6.3 million since 2006.

Race and Hispanic origin. Of all entrants to the labor 

force during the 2006–16 period, nearly 56 percent are 

expected to be white non-Hispanics. This proportion is 

smaller than the group’s share of the workforce in 2006 

(69.1 percent), reflecting its lesser population growth and 

labor force growth. With 20.8 million white non-Hispanics entering the labor force and 19.2 million leaving 

during the same timeframe, white non-Hispanics’ share 

of the labor force is projected to be 64.6 percent in 2016, 

a drop of 4.5 percentage points.

The slower growth reflects this demographic group’s low 

migration rates to the United States and lower birthrates in 

the past several decades, compared with other population 

groups. The result is relatively fewer labor force entrants 

and relatively more labor force leavers, which in turn reflects the aging and the retirement of the white non-Hispanic labor force, particularly white non-Hispanic men.

Hispanic entrants are projected to account for 22 percent of all entrants during the 2006–16 timeframe, with 
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 47

Table 5. Civilian labor force, entrants and leavers, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

Group 1996

1996–2006

Entrants Leavers Stayers Entrants

2006

Leavers

2006–16

 Number, 16 years and older

Total.............................................. 133,943 35,799 19,616 114,327 151,428 37,305 24,202 127,226 164,231

 Men ........................................... 72,087 19,408 11,033 61,054 81,255 20,447 13,921 67,334 87,781

 Women...................................... 61,856 16,391 8,583 53,273 70,173 16,858 10,281 59,892 76,450

White ........................................... 113,108 28,374 16,553 96,555 123,834 27,920 20,707 103,127 130,665

 Men ........................................... 61,783 15,815 9,441 52,342 67,613 15,814 12,241 55,372 71,283

 Women...................................... 51,325 12,559 7,112 44,213 56,221 12,106 8,466 47,755 59,382

Black ........................................... 15,134 5,229 2,308 12,826 17,314 5,398 2,584 14,730 20,121

 Men ........................................... 7,264 2,360 1,196 6,068 8,128 2,500 1,201 6,927 9,420

 Women...................................... 7,870 2,869 1,112 6,758 9,186 2,898 1,383 7,803 10,701

Asian ............................................ 5,701 2,196 755 4,946 6,727 2,617 694 6,033 8,741

 Men ........................................... 3,039 1,233 396 2,643 3,621 1,383 367 3,254 4,600

 Women...................................... 2,662 963 359 2,303 3,106 1,234 327 2,779 4,141

All other groups1 ......................... – – – – 3,553 1,370 217 3,336 4,705

 Men ........................................... – – – – 1,893 750 112 1,781 2,478

 Women...................................... – – – – 1,660 620 105 1,555 2,227

Hispanic origin.............................. 12,774 8,759 839 11,935 20,694 8,316 2,121 18,573 26,889

 Men ........................................... 7,646 5,344 502 7,144 12,488 4,668 1,354 11,134 15,802

 Women...................................... 5,128 3,415 337 4,791 8,206 3,648 767 7,439 11,087

Other than Hispanic origin............ 121,169 27,040 18,777 102,392 130,734 28,989 22,081 108,653 137,343

 Men ........................................... 64,441 14,064 10,531 53,910 68,767 15,779 12,567 56,200 71,979

 Women...................................... 56,728 12,976 8,246 48,482 61,967 13,210 9,514 52,453 65,364

White non-Hispanic...................... 100,915 19,707 15,993 84,922 104,629 20,811 19,201 85,428 106,133

 Men ........................................... 54,451 10,525 9,023 45,428 55,953 11,843 10,899 45,054 56,791

 Women...................................... 46,464 9,182 6,970 39,494 48,676 8,968 8,302 40,374 49,342

 Share (percent), 16 years 

 and older

Total.............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Men ........................................... 53.8 54.2 56.2 53.4 53.7 54.8 57.5 52.9 53.4

 Women...................................... 46.2 45.8 43.8 46.6 46.3 45.2 42.5 47.1 46.6

White ........................................... 84.4 79.3 84.4 84.5 81.8 74.8 85.6 81.1 79.6

 Men ........................................... 46.1 44.2 48.1 45.8 44.7 42.4 50.6 43.5 43.4

 Women...................................... 38.3 35.1 36.3 38.7 37.1 32.5 35.0 37.5 36.2

Black ........................................... 11.3 14.6 11.8 11.2 11.4 14.5 10.7 11.6 12.3

 Men ........................................... 5.4 6.6 6.1 5.3 5.4 6.7 5.0 5.4 5.7

 Women...................................... 5.9 8.0 5.7 5.9 6.1 7.8 5.7 6.1 6.5

Asian ............................................ 4.3 6.1 3.8 4.3 4.4 7.0 2.9 4.7 5.3

 Men ........................................... 2.3 3.4 2.0 2.3 2.4 3.7 1.5 2.6 2.8

 Women...................................... 2.0 2.7 1.8 2.0 2.1 3.3 1.4 2.2 2.5

All other groups1 ......................... – – – – 2.3 3.7 .9 2.6 2.9

 Men ........................................... – – – – 1.3 2.0 .5 1.4 1.5

 Women...................................... – – – – 1.1 1.7 .4 1.2 1.4

Hispanic origin.............................. 9.5 24.5 4.3 10.4 13.7 22.3 8.8 14.6 16.4

 Men ........................................... 5.7 14.9 2.6 6.2 8.2 12.5 5.6 8.8 9.6

 Women...................................... 3.8 9.5 1.7 4.2 5.4 9.8 3.2 5.8 6.8

Other than Hispanic origin............ 90.5 75.5 95.7 89.6 86.3 77.7 91.2 85.4 83.6

 Men ........................................... 48.1 39.3 53.7 47.2 45.4 42.3 51.9 44.2 43.8

 Women...................................... 42.4 36.2 42.0 42.4 40.9 35.4 39.3 41.2 39.8

White non-Hispanic...................... 75.3 55.0 81.5 74.3 69.1 55.8 79.3 67.1 64.6

 Men ........................................... 40.7 29.4 46.0 39.7 37.0 31.7 45.0 35.4 34.6

 Women...................................... 34.7 25.6 35.5 34.5 32.1 24.0 34.3 31.7 30.0

Stayers

2016

[Numbers in thousands]

1 The “All other groups” category includes (1) those classified as 

of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American 

Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other 

Pacific Islanders. Dash indicates no data collected for category.
Labor Force

48 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

more Hispanic men than women entering the labor force. 

Hispanics are more likely to be in the younger age groups 

and least likely to be of retirement age and thus are projected to make up a smaller proportion of the leavers, 

around 8.8 percent. Blacks are expected to constitute 14.5 

percent of the entrants between 2006 and 2016, with black 

women providing more entrants than black men. Asians 

are anticipated to make up 7.0 percent of labor force entrants during the 2006–16 decade, more than their 6.1 

percent of entrants during the 1996–2006 timeframe.

Implications of aging

The aging of the population has a significant impact on the 

labor force and its growth. Populations age as the result of 

either an increase in their life expectancies or a decrease 

in their fertility rates. The age of the labor force and that 

of the population can be measured in various ways. The 

median age, an index that summarizes age distributions, 

is one way by which the ages of both the population and 

the labor force can be measured. The other measure is the 

relative shares of younger workers (16 to 24 years) and 

older workers (55 years and older) in the labor force. Both 

measures indicate that the labor force will be aging quite 

rapidly from 2006 to 2016.

Median age. Populations are aging in the United States 

and all other industrialized countries, and the ratio of 

people older than 65 years to those between 20 and 64 

years could double between now and the middle of the 

century.16 However, the U.S. population is still relatively 

young compared with the populations of other industrialized nations. The relative youth of both the population and 

the labor force in this country is mainly the result of high 

numbers of immigrants entering the United States, compared with immigration to other industrialized countries. 

Immigrants are mostly in younger age groups, and their 

entry into the U.S. workforce decreases its median age. In 

addition, immigrants have higher fertility rates than those 

of the native population, a phenomenon that also causes a 

decline in the median age of the population.

As the boomers entered the labor force, the median age of 

the labor force declined steadily until 1980. With the passage 

of the baby boomers into higher age groups, the median age 

of the labor force has increased since then. (See chart 3.)

In 1986, the median age of the U.S. labor force was 35.4 

years. It increased to 38.3 years in 1996 and 40.8 years in 

2006. The BLS projects that the median age of the labor 

force will increase to 42.1 years in 2016. (See table 6.)

Until the beginning of the 1990s, the median age of 

the men’s labor force was higher than that of the women’s 

labor force. Gradually, as significant numbers of men in 

older age groups retired, women’s median age started to 

rise. Also, the difference in the men’s and women’s median 

ages reflected a pattern of women entering the labor force, 

leaving for some time after childbirth, and then reentering. 

The median age of men increased from 38.3 years in 1996 

to 40.6 years in 2006 and is projected to be 41.6 years in 

2016. It is expected that the median age of women in the 

labor force, which was 38.2 years in 1996 and increased to 

41.0 years in 2006, will be 42.8 years in 2016.

The aging pattern is different among the major race and 

ethnic groups. Historically, the white labor force has been 

older than those of the nonwhite groups. This trend is expected to continue. The Hispanic labor force is younger 

than all the other race groups, reflecting higher birthrates. 

However, the median age of the Hispanic labor force, 

31.3 years in 1986, increased to 34.5 years in 1996. The 

BLS projects that the median age of the Hispanic labor 

force will increase from 36.4 years in 2006 to 38.0 years 

in 2016. This trend also reflects the aging of the earlier 

immigrants to the United States. White non-Hispanics 

are the oldest group in the labor force; their median age 

increased rapidly, from 35.9 years in 1986 to 39.1 years 

in 1996 and 42.4 years in 2006. The BLS projects that the 

median age of the white non-Hispanic labor force will 

increase to 44.2 years in 2016.

Relative share of the labor force. The following tabulation 

shows the age of the baby-boom cohort—those born between 1946 and 1964—in different years: 

 Year Youngest Oldest

 1950 .......................................... 0 4

 1960 .......................................... 4 14

 1970 .......................................... 6 24

 1980 .......................................... 16 34

 1990 .......................................... 26 44

 2000 .......................................... 36 54

 2010 .......................................... 46 64

 2016 .......................................... 52 70

The boomer generation started entering the labor force at 

the beginning of the 1960s. In 1980, the share of the labor 

force held by baby boomers was at its all-time high. In 

1990 and 2000, the entirety of the baby-boom generation 

was in the prime age group—the group with the highest 

attachment to the labor market and with the highest labor 

force participation rate. Every year after 2000, some of the 

baby boomers exited the group with the highest attach-
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 49

ment to the labor market—the prime age group—and entered the 55-years-and-older age group—the group with 

participation rates approximately half those of the prime 

age group. This transformation was one of the causes of 

the drop in the overall labor force participation rate, a decline that reversed the trend of previous decades wherein 

the baby-boom generation moved from ages with lower 

labor force participation rates to ages with higher rates, 

increasing the rate of growth of the labor force. 

The oldest of the boomers celebrated their sixtieth 

birthdays in 2006 and will turn 62 in 2008, when they 

will become eligible for early retirement benefits. In 2011, 

the midpoint of the BLS 2006–16 projection timeframe, 

they will turn 65. Other things remaining equal, as the 

baby-boom generation retires or moves to age groups with 

lower participation, the rate of growth of the labor force 

will slow down significantly, implying a slower growth of 

GDP.

Economic dependency. The economic dependency ratio is 

measured by estimating the number of persons in the total population (including the Armed Forces and children) 

who are not in the labor force, per hundred of those who 

are. 

In 2006, for every 100 persons in the labor force, 96 

were not. (See table 7.) Of those 96, 43 were children, 

31 were 16 to 64 years of age, and 22 were 65 years and 

older. The ratio of 96 persons not in the labor force to 100 

who were is expected to increase during the projection 

period, reaching almost 98 per 100 in 2016. Economic 

dependency is directly related to the number of children 

and the number of persons in the 65-years-and-older 

age group. Since the 1970s, as the number of births fell 

and the boomer generation moved to ages greater than 

16 years, the economic dependency ratio has declined. 

The decline in the economic dependency ratio also is attributable to the increases in the labor force participation 

rate of women. The only part of the dependency ratio that 

has been steadily increasing is the portion attributable to 

those in the 65-years-and-older age group. In 1975, the 

ratio for this group was by far the smallest economic dependency ratio for any of the age groups that year. From 

1975 to 1996, the dependency ratio of the older age group 

increased from 20 per 100 in the labor force to 22; it is 

expected to increase to 23 in 2016.

Changes in underlying assumptions

In preparing economic projections, the biggest challenge 

is always uncertainty as to what changes the future will 

Chart 3. Median age of the U. S. labor force, 1986–2006 and projected 2016

Percent Percent 

44

42

40

38

32

30

1986 1996 2006

36

34

44

42

40

38

32

30

36

34

2000 2016
Labor Force

50 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

 

Total .............................................................................. 35.4 38.3 40.8 42.1 

 Men ........................................................................... 35.7 38.3 40.6 41.6 

 Women...................................................................... 34.9 38.2 41.0 42.8 

 White......................................................................... 35.6 38.6 41.3 42.7 

 Black ......................................................................... 33.3 36.4 38.7 39.8 

 Asian ......................................................................... 35.3 37.0 40.6 42.9 

 Hispanic origin........................................................... 31.3 34.5 36.4 38.0 

 White non-Hispanic................................................... 35.9 39.1 42.4 44.2 

Table 6.

Group 1986 1996 2006 2016

Median age of the labor force, by sex, race, and ethnicity, 1986, 1996, 2006, and projected 2016

bring. The foremost question facing the BLS in this regard 

is, Which trends are likely to continue into the future and 

which trends may change over time?17

One of the main underlying issues bearing on the accuracy of the BLS labor force projections is the future size 

and composition of the population, because it is chiefly 

the size and composition of the population that drives the 

future labor force. The components that make up the future population involve assumptions about fertility rates, 

mortality rates, and the number of immigrants entering the country. Given that people who will be joining 

the labor force by 2016 are already born, the projection 

of fertility is not that important for the 2006–16 labor 

force projections. The mortality rate also is projected to 

have very gradual changes from one year to the other, and 

these insignificant changes can be disregarded for that 

timeframe as well. 

The greatest uncertainty in population projection is, 

and always has been, immigration, which has a paramount 

impact on the size, composition, and growth rate of both 

the population and the labor force.

As noted earlier, the latest available population projections by the Census Bureau are the basis for the BLS 

labor force projections. To the extent that any underlying 

assumptions about immigration are changed when the 

Census Bureau publishes new population projections, the 

labor force projections presented in this article may need 

to be revised.

The Census Bureau’s estimates indicate that the number of immigrants to the United States has been around 

1.2 million a year for the first 6 years since Census 2000.18

There is a difference of 400,000 immigrants per year between the Census Bureau’s estimates of the population 

and its projection of the number of immigrants in the resident population. That net difference over the 10-year span 

from 2006 to 2016 would add 4.0 million more people to 

the resident population. The addition of a number of that 

magnitude would increase the estimate of the 2016 resident population from 325 million to 329 million. All other 

things being equal, with the projected trends in the labor 

force participation rates over the 2006–16 decade, this revision would mean a labor force of nearly 167 million in 

2016, as opposed to the 164.2 million currently projected.

In addition to necessitating changes in the level and 

growth of the resident population, the civilian noninstitutional population, and the labor force, changes in assumptions about the number of immigrants would entail changes in the racial and ethnic composition of the 

labor force. A significant amount of immigration to the 

United States, both legal and illegal, consists of Hispanic 

immigrants. A change in the Census Bureau’s assumptions about immigration would alter the BLS projections 

of the future ethnic diversity of the population and labor 

force. Moreover, immigrants are mostly in the younger and 

prime age groups, so a change in the assumptions about 

immigration also would affect estimates of the age structure of the labor force. Because the immigrant workforce is 

mostly men, the gender structure of the labor force would 

be affected as well.19 The entry of more immigrants into 

the labor force would further diversify the race, ethnicity, 

age, and sex composition of the labor force.

THE PRESENT BLS LABOR FORCE PROJECTIONS are 

based on the most recent population projections of the 

Census Bureau. The 2006–16 BLS labor force projections 

point to several key trends that will likely take place in 

the U.S. labor force during the next decade. These trends, 

which are a reflection of demographic changes in the size 

and composition of the population and projected changes 

in the labor force participation rate of various sex, age, 

race, and ethnic groups, are as follows:
Monthly Labor Review • November 2007 51

As the baby boomers age and move into their “golden years,” the growth rate of the labor force will slow 

significantly over the next 10 years. 

The aging of the population and the labor force as a 

result of decreasing fertility rates and increasing life 

expectancies will continue, and the median age of 

the labor force will increase.

The labor force will continue to grow more diverse. 

With high fertility rates and increasing participation rates, minorities in the workforce are projected 

to expand their shares substantially. The share of 

Hispanics in the labor force will rise steadily.

The rate of growth of women in the labor force is 

expected to slow, but will still increase at a slightly 

faster rate than that of men. 

The participation rate of youths (16 to 24 years old) and 

their share of the labor force are projected to decrease.

•

•

•

•

•

The participation rate of prime-age workers (those 

25 to 54 years old) is expected to increase slightly, 

while their share of the labor force is projected to 

decline.

The labor force participation rate of older workers 

(55 years and older) is projected to increase significantly in the next decade. In addition, as the U.S. 

poulation ages, the share of this age group will increase in the civilian noninstitutional population. 

As a result of both the growing participation and 

the growing share of this group, the labor force of 

the future will have a bigger share of older workers.In a sense, then, the workforce of the coming 

decade will be more “age diverse.” Since the end of 

the 1980s, the labor force participation rate of older 

workers has been on the rise, and it is projected to 

continue to do so in the next decade. However, the 

older workers’ rate is still half the participation rate 

of the prime age group, portending slower growth of 

the future labor force.

•

•

 

Total population............................... 126.3 103.8 97.9 96.0 97.9 

 Under 16 years ............................ 61.4 47.0 46.6 43.0 42.4 

 16 to 64 years .............................. 44.2 34.7 29.1 31.0 32.3 

 65 years and older ....................... 20.7 22.1 22.2 22.0 23.2 

Table 7.

Group 1975 1986 1996 2006

Economic dependency ratio, by age, 1975–2006 and projected 2016

2016

[Per hundred in the labor force]

Notes

1

 The older age group is defined as all those 55 years and older. 

2

 The labor force consists of all employed persons and unemployed 

persons actively looking for a job. The labor force participation rate is the 

ratio of the labor force to the civilian noninstitutional population.

3

 See John Bound, Michael Schoenbaum, and Timothy Waidmann, 

“Race differences in labor force attachment and disability status,” The 

Gerontologist, June 1996, pp. 311–21.

4

 See Abraham Mosisa and Steven Hipple, “Trends in labor force 

participation in the United States,” Monthly Labor Review, October 

2006, pp. 35–57. 

 5 Baby boomers are those born between 1946 and 1964, a period 

during which the U.S. birthrate rose significantly, with the peak birth 

year being 1957.

6 That was the first time that data for the 16-years-and-older group 

were tabulated.

7 Gross domestic product (GDP) is a measure of the production of 

goods and services in the economy. For a detailed discussion of BLS projections of the U.S. economy to 2016, see Betty Su, “The U.S. economy 

to 2016,” this issue, pp. 13–32.

8

 Subsequent information about the Census Bureau’s interim 

population projections is from the agency’s Population Projections 

Program homepage; click on the link “Interim Projections consistent 

with Census 2000,” on the Internet at www.census.gov/population/

www/projections/popproj.html (visited Nov. 30, 2007).

9

 The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a program of personal 

interviews conducted monthly by the Bureau of Census for the BLS. 

The sample consists of about 60,000 households selected to represent 

the U.S. population 16 years and older.

10 The projections of the Armed Forces and institutional population 

according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity for 2006–16 are based on BLS

assumptions.

11 See Abraham Mosisa, “Labor force characteristics of second-
Labor Force

52 Monthly Labor Review • November 2007

generation Americans,” Monthly Labor Review, September 2006, pp. 

10–19. 

12 Katie Kirkland, “Declining teen labor force participation,” Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 02–06 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 

September 2002).

13 During the past decade, the percentage of workers participating 

in defined benefit pension plans remained flat, whereas the percentage participating in defined contribution pension plans increased. (See 

Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employee Benefits Survey, on the Internet at 

data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost?eb (visited Nov. 30, 2007).)

14 For more information on health benefits and retirement, see Richard W. Johnson, “What happens to health benefits after retirement?” 

Issue in Brief (Chestnut Hill, MA, Center for Retirement Research at 

Boston College, February 2007).

15 Entrants and leavers are computed by comparing the labor force 

numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If the labor force 

numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed the 

“entrants”; if the labor force numbers at the second point are smaller, 

the difference is the “leavers.” These concepts understate the numbers 

likely to enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by 

the two points in time, but are still a valid comparison. For a further 

discussion of the methods, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Measuring 

Rates of Labor Force Dynamics,” Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association, 1993 (Alexandria, VA, American 

Statistical Association, 1993). 

16 Jean-Philippe Cotis, Population aging: facing the challenge (Paris, 

OECD, September 2003).

17 See Ronald Kutscher, “Historical trends, 1950–92, and current uncertainties,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1993, pp. 3–10, especially 

p. 7.

18 Visit the Census Bureau’s Web site at www.census.gov/popest/

estimates.php (visited Nov. 30, 2007).

19 Abraham T. Mosisa, “The role of foreign-born workers in the U.S. 

economy,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 3–14.