U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Issues in Labor St atistics

Long-term unemployment 

experience of the jobless 

By the end of 2009, the jobless rate stood at 10.0 

percent and the number of unemployed persons at 15.3 

million. Among the unemployed, 4 in 10 (6.1 million) had 

been jobless for 27 weeks or more, by far the highest 

proportion of long-term unemployment on record, with 

data back to 1948. This brief report compares the 

incidence of long-term joblessness among different age 

groups during the current recession. To be classified 

as unemployed for more than half a year, individuals 

must persevere in their job search, and this persistence 

varies among age groups. For this reason, the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses labor force flows to 

gain insight into whether the unemployed in some age 

groups are more likely than others to find jobs, continue 

to search for jobs, or leave the labor force altogether. 

Labor force flows can be used to calculate the probability 

of individuals moving between each of the labor force 

classifications—employment, unemployment, and not 

in the labor force—from one month to the next.

During the current recession, rising unemployment 

has led to record high levels of long-term joblessness. 

A relatively simple measure of a group’s exposure to 

long-term unemployment is its long-term jobless rate, 

or the proportion of the group’s labor force total that 

has been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.1

 As 

shown in table 1, the long-term unemployment rate 

for all persons increased from 0.8 percent in 2007 to a 

high of 2.9 percent in 2009. Moreover, upswings in the 

measure were pervasive across all age groups. While 

young workers had the higher nominal increase

in their long-term unemployment rate, prime-age and 

older workers had a somewhat larger increase on a 

percent basis. (Unless otherwise noted, comparisons 

Table 1. Selected labor force and unemployment 

measures by age, 2007–09 annual averages

Age and characteristic 2007 2008 2009

Long-term unemployment rate

 Total, 16 and older 0.8 1.1 2.9

 16 to 24 years 1.3 1.8 4.1

 25 to 54 years 0.7 1.0 2.8

 55 years and older 0.7 1.0 2.6

Distribution of long-term unemployment

 Total, 16 and older 100.0 100.0 100.0

 16 to 24 years 22.5 22.3 19.5

 25 to 54 years 62.3 62.2 63.8

 55 years and older 15.1 15.6 16.7

Distribution of the labor force

 Total, 16 and older 100.0 100.0 100.0

 16 to 24 years 14.5 14.3 13.9

 25 to 54 years 68.1 67.7 67.3

 55 years and older 17.3 18.1 18.8

Percent unemployed 27 weeks 

and over

 Total, 16 and older 17.6 19.7 31.5

 16 to 24 years 11.9 13.8 23.3

 25 to 54 years 19.9 21.8 33.4

 55 years and older 22.7 25.7 39.4

Average number of weeks unemployed

 Total, 16 and older 16.8 17.9 24.4

 16 to 24 years 12.9 14.0 19.9

 25 to 54 years 18.3 19.2 25.3

 55 years and older 21.1 22.0 29.5

NOTE: Long-term unemployment is defined as the number of 

persons unemployed for 27 weeks or longer. The long-term unemployment rate is defined as the share of a particular group's 

labor force total that has been unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

Summary 10-05 / June 2010
Issues in Labor Statistics June 2010

Long-term unemployment experience of the jobless

herein focus on annual average data for 2007, most of 

which occurred just prior to the onset of the recession 

in December of that year, and 2009, the most recent 

annual average data available.) 2

Younger workers were overrepresented among the 

long-term jobless in 2009, making up 19.5 percent of all 

persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more, compared 

with 13.9 percent of the labor force. This is not unusual, 

because youths have made up a disproportionately 

larger share of the long-term jobless in every recession 

but one since 1976. 

At first glance, it appears that younger workers in the 

current economic downturn have been hit particularly 

hard by long-term unemployment because of their high 

long-term unemployment rate and their disproportionate 

share of the long-term jobless. Once unemployed, 

however, younger workers actually have a relatively low 

probability of remaining jobless for a half year or more. 

As shown in table 1, only 23.3 percent of unemployed 

youths were jobless for 27 weeks or more in 2009, 

compared with 33.4 percent of prime-age workers and 

39.4 percent of older workers. Furthermore, the share 

of long-term unemployed made up of youths declined 

between 2007 and 2009, while the share made up of 

older workers rose. Older workers also experienced an 

average duration spell of 29.5 weeks of unemployment, 

the longest among the groups.3

Analysis of labor force status flows can provide some 

insight into the apparent inconsistencies in the longterm unemployment experience among age groups. 

Flows capture movements between employment and 

unemployment as well as entry into and exit out of the 

labor force. For example, a person who is unemployed 

in one month may still be jobless the next month, or he or 

she might be employed or no longer participating in the 

labor market at all. Thus, labor force flows are a useful 

tool to assess whether unemployed individuals are 

more likely to remain unemployed, find a job, or leave 

the labor force. While the flow data do not indicate the 

length of time that individuals have been unemployed, 

there is a strong correlation between the share of the 

unemployed who have been jobless for 27 weeks or 

more and the share of unemployed who remain jobless 

from one month to the next. As chart 1 shows, these 

two series move in lockstep with each other through 

recessionary and expansionary periods alike. 

As the current recession deepened and job loss 

intensified, there were significant changes in the flows 

out of unemployment.4

 Overall, the rate of successful 

job search (unemployed to employed) plummeted. (See 

table 2.) In 2009, only 17 percent of all the unemployed in 

one month found jobs by the next month, compared with 

about 28 percent of the unemployed in 2007. In 2009, 

18 percent of workers ages 25 to 54 were successful in 

their job search. Younger workers were about as likely 

as prime-age workers to find work in 2009. Unemployed 

older workers were the least likely of all to find jobs, with 

only about 15 percent of jobseekers finding jobs each 

month in 2009, compared with about 22 percent in 2007. 

Similarly, as the likelihood of successful job search 

2
30

40

50

60

70

Chart 1. Percent of the unemployed who remained unemployed month to month and percent 

of the unemployed who were jobless for 27 weeks or longer, seasonally adjusted 3-month 

moving average, April 1990–December 2009

Percent of unemployed

Remained unemployed 

0

10

20

30

Jan-90 Jan-92 Jan-94 Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jan-02 Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08

Percent unemployed 27 weeks or longer

NOTE:  Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).  NBER has not yet

determined an endpoint for the recession that began in December 2007.

drop out of the labor force between 2007 and 2009.5 This 

put upward pressure on both their overall unemployment 

rates and long-term unemployment rates. In contrast, 

the share of unemployed youths that left the labor force, 

which was always high, remained stable over the course 

of the recession, at about 30 percent. 

Thus, as the recession lengthened and unemployment 

rose, the share of jobless workers ages 25 to 54 and 

those 55 years and over that remained unemployed 

from month to month increased, while the share that left 

the labor force or became employed declined. These 

Issues in Labor Statistics June 2010

Long-term unemployment experience of the jobless

declined for each age group during the recession, the 

probability of remaining unemployed rose sharply. 

These changes contributed to rising numbers of longterm unemployed. Declines in successful job search 

and longer periods of unemployment are expected 

outcomes from such a severe job market downturn. 

What is less predictable is the extent to which 

unemployed workers would persevere in their search 

for employment after failing for so long to find jobs. 

As shown in table 2, unemployed prime-age workers 

and older workers became substantially less inclined to 

Chart 1. Percent of the unemployed who remained unemployed month to month and percent of the

unemployed who were jobless for 27 week or longer, seasonally adjusted 3-month moving average,

April 1990–December 2009

3

Jan.-90 Jan.-92 Jan.-94 Jan.-96 Jan.-98 Jan.-00 Jan.-02 Jan.-04 Jan.-06 Jan.-08 Dec.-09
changes all contributed to the overall rise in long-term 

unemployment among those age groups. The share 

of jobless younger workers that remained unemployed 

also increased, but they were still as likely to drop out 

of the labor force as they were before the onset of the 

recession. If they had been less inclined to leave the 

labor market, as were the other age groups, long-term 

joblessness among youth would have increased even 

more than it did.

This Issues paper was prepared by Randy Ilg, an 

economist in the Division of Labor Force Statistics, 

Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. 

Email: CPSinfo@bls.gov; Telephone: (202) 691-6378.

Information in this summary will be made available 

to sensory-impaired individuals upon request. Voice 

phone: (202) 691-5200. Federal Relay Service: 1-800-

877-8339. This report is in the public domain and may 

be reproduced without permission. 

1

 The labor force is made up of the employed plus the unemployed—those 

who are actively looking for and are available for work. 2

 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that the 

most recent recession began in December 2007. NBER has not yet determined 

an endpoint for the recession. 3

 The average duration measure represents the length of time that unemployed 

individuals had been looking for work when surveyed; thus it refers to incomplete 

spells of joblessness rather than the duration of completed spells. 4

 Seasonally adjusted labor force status flows are not available by age; thus, 

data presented herein are annualized, not seasonally adjusted. 5

 Individuals leave the labor force for a variety of reasons, including retirement, 

discouragement over job prospects, school attendance, and family responsibility.

Notes

Issues in Labor Statistics June 2010

Long-term unemployment experience of the jobless

Table 2. Selected labor force flows by age, 2007–09 

annual averages

(Percent)

Age and labor force flow 2007 2008 2009

Total, 16 and over 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Unemployed to employed 27.6 24.1 17.3

 Unemployed to unemployed 48.2 52.8 63.1

 Unemployed to not in labor 

 force

24.2 23.1 19.6

16 to 24 years 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Unemployed to employed 27.9 23.7 16.9

 Unemployed to unemployed 42.2 45.6 53.7

 Unemployed to not in labor 

 force 

30.0 30.7 29.4

25 to 54 years 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Unemployed to employed 28.5 25.1 18.0

 Unemployed to unemployed 50.7 56.2 66.7

 Unemployed to not in labor 

 force

20.7 18.7 15.3

55 years and older 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Unemployed to employed 22.3 20.3 15.2

 Unemployed to unemployed 53.0 56.3 65.1

 Unemployed to not in labor

 force

24.7 23.4 19.7

NOTE: Totals may not sum to 100.0 percent due to rounding. 

n

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