U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Summary 12-02 / May 2012

Issues in Labor Statistics

BLS

Young adult employment

during the recent recession

The data in this analysis are from the National 

Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97). The 

NLSY97 is a nationally representative sample of 

8,984 men and women who were born between 

1980 and 1984 and were living in the United 

States at the time of the initial survey. Survey 

participants were first interviewed in 1997 when 

they were between 12 and 17 years old, and they 

have been interviewed every year since. In the 

NLSY97, employment information is collected in 

an event-history format, which includes the start 

and stop dates of each job and dates when the 

respondent is unemployed or out of the labor force. 

This information is used to create a week-by-week 

history of employment for each survey participant.4

Three comparisons are used to illustrate 

the effects of the recent recession on the work 

experiences of young men and women born 

in 1980–1981 and those born in 1982–1983. 

The first analysis compares the 1980–1981 

cohort’s employment experience over the 18 

months of the recession with their experience in 

the 18-month period that began in the 2 years 

before the recession.5

 The second comparison 

examines the employment experiences of the 

1980–1981 cohort and the 1982–1983 cohort 

throughout the 18 months of the recent recession. 

The third comparison is between the two birth 

groups when they are both 24 and 25 years 

old. Those born in 1980–1981 turned 24 or 25 

years old by December 2005 and those born in 

1982–1983 turned 24 or 25 by December 2007; 

the employment experiences of each group 

The recent recession lasted from December 

2007 to June 2009, with the unemployment rate 

increasing from 5.0 percent at the beginning 

of the recession to 9.6 percent at the end.1

The recession had different consequences for 

various demographic groups, with higher job 

losses affecting African Americans, Hispanics or 

Latinos, workers with lower levels of education, 

and younger workers.2

 This article focuses 

on the impacts of the recent recession on 

younger workers. It compares the labor market 

experiences of young adults (24- and 25-yearolds) over an 18-month period prior to the last 

recession to those of young adults of the same 

age over the 18 months of the recent recession. 

Many of these young adults had recently entered 

the labor market, and research has shown that 

workers who enter the labor market during a 

recession can see long-term negative effects on 

their employment and earnings.3

The last edition

This marks the last edition of Issues in Labor 

Statistics. In May 2012, BLS will introduce a 

new publication entitled, “Beyond the Numbers.” 

The content slated originally for Issues in Labor 

Statistics will be presented online in Beyond 

the Numbers. Past editions of Issues in Labor 

Statistics will appear in the Beyond the Numbers 

archive.
2

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

are compared during the 18 months following 

December 2005 (2 years prior to the recession) or 

December 2007 (the start of the recent recession). 

In this article, men and women are compared 

separately. The timing of marriage, child birth, and 

related factors can influence women’s and men’s 

labor force participation decisions in different ways. 

Combining statistics for men and women could 

mask their different employment experiences, 

both within and across demographic groups.

One group’s experience before

and during the recession

Table 1 shows the percentage of young adults in the 

1980–1981 birth cohort who were employed during 

the first and last weeks of the recession. It also shows 

the percentage of young adults in the same cohort 

who were employed in the parallel weeks in the 2-year 

period6

 before the recession.7 Across most demographic 

categories, men and women born in 1980–1981 had 

stable or increasing employment from December 2005 

to June 2007. During the recession, however, a number 

of demographic groups experienced decreasing 

employment, with the hardest hit being young men who 

had less than a high school education and young black 

women.8

 The percentage of employed young men with 

less than a high school diploma dropped almost 12 

percentage points from December 2007 to June 2009, 

and the percentage of employed black women dropped 

more than 10 percentage points during the same period.

Table 1. Percentage of young adults in the 1980–1981 birth cohort employed in the beginning and ending weeks of 

the recent recession and 2 years before the recession, by selected characteristics

Characteristic

Percent employed

Before recession Recession

December 2005 June 2007 December 2007 June 2009

Men

All 84.1 87.3 86.7 82.0

White, non-Hispanic 86.1 89.3 90.0 84.7

Black, non-Hispanic 71.9 76.1 73.0 68.1

Hispanic or Latino 87.4 89.5 86.3 84.7

Less than high school diploma 70.7 77.6 75.1 63.4

High school diploma 89.7 89.3 88.2 81.8

Some college or more 86.4 90.9 91.2 88.9

Women

All 77.5 77.4 77.8 73.5

White, non-Hispanic 79.0 78.0 77.2 74.0

Black, non-Hispanic 69.4 72.1 76.5 66.1

Hispanic or Latino 78.8 81.4 83.1 80.8

Less than high school diploma 49.9 57.2 55.5 48.7

High school diploma 71.6 70.8 72.2 67.5

Some college or more 87.1 85.4 85.6 82.8

NOTE: The recent recession began December 2007 and ended June 2009.
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Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

Table 2 shows the probabilities that men 

and women in the 1980–1981 cohort who were 

employed at the beginning of the recession in 

December 2007 were also working at the end of 

the recession in June 2009. Table 2 also shows 

the probabilities that men and women in the 1980–

1981 cohort who were employed in December 

2005 were also working in June 2007. Almost 93 

percent of men who were employed in December 

2005 were also employed in June 2007, and 88 percent 

of men who were employed in December 2007 were 

also employed in June 2009. Overall, this shows a 

5-percentage-point drop in employment probabilities 

from the period prior to the recession to the period 

of the recession. However, the employment losses 

were not spread evenly across demographic groups. 

The largest decline in employment probabilities 

from before the recession (December 2005 to June 

2007) to during the recession (December 2007 to 

June 2009) occurred among men with less than a 

high school diploma, who experienced a decrease of 

more than 17 percentage points. In contrast, overall 

employment probabilities for women stayed nearly 

the same over the two periods (86 percent of those 

employed in December 2005 were employed in June 

2007, and 84 percent of those employed in December 

2007 were employed in June 2009), and women 

with less than a high school diploma experienced a 

decrease in the probability of employment of about 

5 percentage points from before the recession to the 

time of the recession. 

Charts 1 and 2 contrast the 1980–1981 cohort’s 

employment experiences before and during the 

recession by displaying week-by-week employment 

rates for men and women. The blue line shows 

employment for birth years 1980–1981 during the 18 

months before the recession, and the red line shows 

employment for birth years 1980–1981 during the 

recession. The vertical axis shows the percentage 

of the group employed each week. The horizontal 

axis shows the weeks in each 18-month period; the 

starting point for the blue line is December 2005 and 

the starting point for the red line is December 2007. 

Table 2. Percentage of young adults in the 1980–

1981 cohort employed at the end of the recent 

recession, conditional on being employed at its 

beginning, by selected characteristics

Characteristic

Percent 

employed in 

June 2007, 

conditional on 

being employed 

in December 

2005

Percent 

employed in 

June 2009, 

conditional on 

being employed 

in December 

2007

Before recession Recession

Men

All 92.8 87.8

White, non-Hispanic 93.6 88.6

Black, non-Hispanic 89.2 81.7

Hispanic or Latino 91.9 90.1

Less than high school 

diploma

90.4 73.1

High school diploma 92.9 86.5

Some college or more 94.2 92.1

Women

All 86.1 84.3

White, non-Hispanic 86.4 86.1

Black, non-Hispanic 81.4 75.8

Hispanic or Latino 89.7 85.6

Less than high school 

diploma

76.7 71.5

High school diploma 83.0 81.7

Some college or more 88.3 88.1

NOTE: The recent recession began December 2007 and ended 

June 2009.
4

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 1. Percentage of young men employed during the 80 weeks of

December 2005 to June 2007 and of December 2007 to June 2009 

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2005-June 2007

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2007-June 2009

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 2. Percentage of young women employed during the 80 weeks of December 

2005 to June 2007 and of December 2007 to June 2009 

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2005-June 2007

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2007-June 2009
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Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

Chart 1 shows that the lines for men’s 

employment from December 2005 to June 2007 

and from December 2007 to June 2009 generally 

follow each other until about week 60 (January 

2007 or January 2009). Then the 1980–1981 

cohort’s employment rate trended upward in the 2 

years prior to the recession, but remained fairly flat 

in the comparable period of the recession. Chart 

2 shows that the women’s 1980–1981 cohort 

employment rate before the recession and during 

the recession began to diverge about 56 weeks 

after the start of each period. The employment 

rate for these women was fairly flat during the 

later part of the period before the recession, but it 

turned down during the later part of the recession. 

Comparing two birth groups during the recession 

Table 1 (two right columns) and table 3 show 

the percentage of young men and women in the 

1980–1981 and 1982–1983 birth cohorts who 

were employed during the first and last weeks of 

the recession. Although men and women in both 

cohorts saw an overall decline in employment 

during the recession, some demographic groups 

in the younger cohort fared worse than their peers 

in the older cohort. For example, men in the 1980–

1981 cohort with a high school diploma but no 

college experienced a decrease in employment 

of more than 6 percentage points from December 

2007 to June 2009. However, men in the 1982–

1983 cohort with a high school diploma but no 

college experienced a decrease of more than 10 

percentage points. Black, non-Hispanic women 

in both cohorts experienced a substantial drop in 

employment over the recession, as did men with less 

than a high school diploma. Overall, the probabilities 

that men and women in each birth cohort who were 

employed in December 2007 were also working in 

June 2009 are very similar for both birth cohorts. (See 

tables 2 and 4).

Charts 3 and 4 show the week-by-week employment rates for the 1980–1981 (red line) and 1982–

1983 (green line) cohorts during the recession. Chart 

3 shows that employment for each cohort of men generally moved together during the recession, with the 

Table 3. Percentage of young adults in the 1982–

1983 birth cohort employed in the beginning and 

ending weeks of the recent recession, by selected 

characteristics

Characteristic

Percent employed

Recession

December 2007 June 2009

Men

All 84.5 79.9

White, non-Hispanic 86.7 82.0

Black, non-Hispanic 72.8 70.5

Hispanic or Latino 86.8 80.6

Less than high school 

diploma

74.0 63.8

High school diploma 88.5 78.1

Some college or more 87.3 88.1

Women

All 77.7 73.5

White, non-Hispanic 78.1 74.9

Black, non-Hispanic 77.4 68.0

Hispanic or Latino 75.1 73.6

Less than high school 

diploma

62.4 55.2

High school diploma 71.7 67.1

Some college or more 85.2 82.8

NOTE: The recent recession began December 2007 and ended June 

2009.
6

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 3. Percentage of young men employed during the 80 weeks of

December 2007 to June 2009

Birth years 1982-1983, Dec 2007-June 2009

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2007-June 2009

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 4. Percentage of young women employed during the 80 weeks of

December 2007 to June 2009

Birth years 1982-1983, Dec 2007-June 2009

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2007-June 2009
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Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

1980–1981 cohort’s employment trending above 

the 1982–1983 cohort’s employment. Chart 4 

shows the employment for the women’s 1980–

1981 cohort during the recession followed a similar trend as the 1982-1983 cohort’s employment 

rate during this same period. The cohorts began 

to diverge during week 22 (April 2008) and slightly 

during week 60 (January 2009).

Comparing two birth groups at the same age

Even though they are close in age, the two birth 

groups had dissimilar employment experiences 

as 24- and 25-year-olds. Tables 1 and 3 show 

the percentages of young adults in each birth 

cohort who were employed during the first and 

last weeks of the recession. Table 1 also shows 

the percentage of young adults in the older cohort 

who were employed in the parallel weeks in the 

2-year period before the recession. In December 

2005, about 84 percent of men born in 1980–1981 

were employed; a similar percentage of men born 

in 1982–1983 were employed in December 2007, 

the beginning of the recession. In June 2007, 

more than 87 percent of young adult men born 

in 1980–1981 were employed. By comparison, 80 

percent of young men born in 1982–1983 were 

employed in the parallel week in June 2009, the 

end of the recession. 

Women experienced a drop in employment 

during the recession, and overall had lower 

employment rates than men during these periods. 

In December 2005 and 2007, about 78 percent 

of 24- and 25-year-old women in both cohorts 

were employed. In June 2007, about the same 

percentage of young women born in 1980–1981 were 

employed. Among women born in 1982–1983, less 

than 74 percent were employed in the parallel week 

in June 2009.

The relative employment losses of the recession 

can be seen across racial and ethnic groups. While 

employment generally stayed stable or increased for 

each racial and ethnic group in the 1980–1981 cohort 

from December 2005 to June 2007, it often decreased 

for the 1982–1983 cohort in the recessionary period 

of December 2007 to June 2009. For example, white, 

non-Hispanic men in the 1982–1983 birth cohort had 

a decrease in employment of 5 percentage points 

from December 2007 to June 2009. In addition, black, 

non-Hispanic women in the 1980–1981 birth cohort 

experienced an employment loss of more than 10 

percentage points from December 2007 to June 2009. 

Educational attainment played a large role in the loss 

of employment during the recession. Men and women 

who had less than a high school diploma experienced 

a relatively large decrease in employment during the 

recession, as did men who had a high school diploma 

but no college. Men and women who had at least 

some college education fared better. For example, 

men born in 1980–1981 who had less than a high 

school diploma experienced about a 7-percentagepoint increase in employment from December 2005 

to June 2007. In contrast, men born in 1982–1983 

who had less than a high school diploma experienced 

a 10-percentage-point decrease in employment from 

December 2007 to June 2009. Similarly, women born 

in 1980–1981 who had less than a high school diploma 

experienced more than a 7-percentage-point increase

in employment from December 2005 to June 2007. In 
8

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

contrast, women born in 1982–1983 who had less 

than a high school diploma experienced about a 

7-percentage-point decrease in employment from 

December 2007 to June 2009.

Tables 2 and 4 show the probabilities that men 

and women in the 1980–1981 and 1982–1983 

birth cohorts who were employed in December 

2007 were also working in June 2009, the end of 

the recession. Table 2 also shows the probabilities 

that men and women in the 1980–1981 cohort 

who were employed in December 2005 were also 

working in June 2007. Of the 1980–1981 cohort, 

almost 93 percent of young men and 86 percent of 

young women who were employed in December 

2005 were also working in June 2007. In contrast, 

of the 1982–1983 cohort, about 86 percent of 

young men and less than 83 percent of young 

women who were working in December 2007 

were also working in June 2009. Men in every 

racial and ethnic group of the 1982–1983 cohort 

experienced lower employment probabilities from 

the beginning to the end of the recession than did 

men in the 1980–1981 cohort at the same stage 

of their lives 2 years before. In addition, men in 

the 1982–1983 cohort who had less than a high 

school diploma were almost 19 percentage points 

less likely to be employed in June 2009, if they 

had been employed in December 2007, than were 

men in the older cohort in June 2007, if they had 

been employed in December 2005. Men in the 

1982–1983 cohort with a high school diploma but 

no college were about 10 percentage points less 

likely to be employed in June 2009 than those in 

the 1980–1981 cohort were to be employed 2 years 

earlier (June 2007). These types of large differences 

in employment between the birth cohorts are not 

found for women in different educational groups. 

Charts 5 and 6 show week-by-week employment 

rates for the cohorts of men and women born in the 

years 1980–1981 (blue line) and 1982–1983 (green 

line). The vertical axis shows the percentage of each 

cohort employed each week. The horizontal axis shows 

the weeks in each 18-month period; the starting point 

is either December 2005 for the 1980–1981 cohorts or 

December 2007 for the 1982–1983 cohorts. 

Table 4. Percentage of young adults in the 1982–1983 

birth cohort employed at the end of the recent

recession, conditional on being employed at its

beginning, by selected characteristics

Characteristic

Percent employed 

in June 2009, 

conditional on 

being employed in 

December 2007 

Men

All 85.5

White, non-Hispanic 86.1

Black, non-Hispanic 81.2

Hispanic or Latino 86.8

Less than high school diploma 71.9

High school diploma 83.0

Some college or more 92.0

Women

All 82.5

White, non-Hispanic 83.1

Black, non-Hispanic 78.7

Hispanic or Latino 85.0

Less than high school diploma 70.6

High school diploma 78.4

Some college or more 87.4

NOTE: The recent recession began December 2007 and ended 

June 2009.
9

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 5. Percentage of young men employed during the 80 weeks of

December 2005 to June 2007 and of December 2007 to June 2009 

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2005-June 2007

Birth years 1982-1983, Dec 2007-June 2009

72

74

76

78

80

1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78

Percent employed

Week

Chart 6. Percentage of young women employed during the 80 weeks of 

December 2005 to June 2007 and of December 2007 to June 2009 

Birth years 1980-1981, Dec 2005-June 2007

Birth years 1982-1983, Dec 2007-June 2009
10

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

What is striking is the contrast between the 

employment experiences of men in the two birth 

cohorts in December of the year they were 24 

or 25 years old and the following 18 months. 

The employment rates of both cohorts began 

at approximately the same level. By week 

15 (either March 2006 or March 2008), they 

began to diverge, with the 1980–1981 cohort’s 

employment increasing, and the 1982–1983 

cohort’s employment staying stable. From the 

beginning of the second half of the 18-month 

period (September 2006 or September 2008) 

until the end of the period studied, the 1982–1983 

cohort’s employment rate trended downward as 

the recession continued, while the 1980–1981 

cohort’s employment generally trended upward. 

Chart 6 shows the employment rates for women 

in the 1980–1981 and 1982–1983 cohorts also 

began at approximately the same level, but there is 

no clear divergence until after week 56 (December 

2006 or December 2008). From that point, the 

1980–1981 cohort’s employment remained fairly 

stable and the 1982–1983 cohort’s employment 

trended downward.

Conclusion

In summary, young adult men and women who 

turned 24 or 25 years old just prior to the recent 

recession experienced more employment losses over 

the following 18-month period than the older cohort 

that turned 24 or 25 years old 2 years before the 

recession. The older cohort experienced stable or 

increasing employment during the parallel 18-month 

period at the same age. As the youth in the NLSY97 

age, researchers will be able to investigate the labor 

market consequences of employment losses during 

one’s early career, and to what extent any short or 

long-term effects vary among demographic groups.

This Issues paper was prepared by Donna S. Rothstein, 

a research economist in the National Longitudinal 

Surveys Program, Office of Employment and 

Unemployment Statistics. Email: Rothstein.Donna@

bls.gov; Telephone: (202) 691-7529. Information in this 

summary will be made available to sensory-impaired 

individuals upon request. Voice phone: (202) 691-

5200. Federal Relay Service: 1-800-877-8339. This 

report is in the public domain and may be reproduced 

without permission.
11

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2012

Young adult employment during the recent recession

1The start and end dates for the recession are determined by the 

National Bureau of Economic Research, which is generally recognized as the arbiter of recessions in the United States.

2See Steven F. Hipple, “The Labor Market in 2009: Recession 

Drags On,” Monthly Labor Review 133, no.3 (March 2010), pp. 3–22.

3

See, for example, Lisa Kahn, “The Long-Term Labor Market Consequences of Graduating in a Bad Economy,” Labour Economics

17, no. 2 (2010), pp. 303–316.

4A respondent in the military is counted as employed in the analysis.

5Data are weighted to be nationally representative using 2009 survey weights.

6For December 2005 and 2007, the 49th week of the year is used, 

which is November 27 to December 3 in 2005 and December 2 to 

December 8 in 2007. For June of 2007 and 2009, the 24th week of the 

year is used, which is June 10 to June 16 in 2007 and June 7 to June 13 

in 2009. The data are from the weekly work status event-history arrays in 

the NLSY97 public-use data set.

7The denominator for calculating the percent employed is the total population of the cohort.

8Education level is based on the highest grade completed and highest 

degree completed at the time of the 2005 interview for the 1980–1981 

cohort and the 2007 interview for the 1982–1983 cohort. Respondents 

with a GED and no college are in the less-than-a-high-school-diploma 

category, as suggested by Cameron and Heckman’s (1993) analysis. 

They find exam-certified high school equivalents to be more similar to 

high school dropouts than to those with a high school diploma. See Stephen V. Cameron and James J. Heckman, “The Nonequivalence of High 

School Equivalents,” Journal of Labor Economics 11, no 1, part 1 (1993), 

pp. 1–47.

Notes