Monthly Labor Review February 2004 37

Labor Force Projections

Labor force projections to 2012:

the graying of the U.S. workforce

The labor force will continue to age, with the annual

growth rate of the 55-years-and-older group

projected to be nearly 4 times that of the overall

labor force; as the participation rates of older

age groups increase, the older population’s share

of the workforce will rise

Mitra Toossi T his article examines projected trends in

the labor force over the 2002–12 period.

By 2012, the number of persons working

or looking for work is expected to reach 162.3

million. The labor force is anticipated to exhibit

steady growth and increase by 17.4 million, or

12 percent, over the 2002 figure. The growth in

the labor force during 2002–12 is projected to be

larger than in the previous 10-year period, 1992–

2002, when the labor force grew by 14.4 million,

or 11.3 percent.

The annual rate of growth in the women’s

labor force is expected to remain the same as it

was during the 1992–2002 period, namely, 1.3

percent, but it will still increase at a faster rate

than that of men. (See table 1.) The men’s labor

force is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.0

percent, more rapidly than the growth rate in the

1992–2002 period, even though the aggregate

labor force participation rate for men is projected

to continue to decline. Women’s share of the

labor force is expected to increase from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent in 2012. By contrast,

men’s share is projected to decline from 53.5

percent in 2002 to 52.5 percent in 2012.

The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom generation—persons born between 1946 and 1964. In

2012, the baby-boom cohort will be 48 to 66

years. This age group is expected to show significant growth over the 2002–12 period. The

labor force will continue to age, with the annual growth rate of the 55-and-older group

projected to be 4.1 percent, nearly 4 times the

rate of growth of the overall labor force. It is

anticipated that, in 2012, youths will constitute 15 percent of the labor force, and primeage workers—those between the ages of 25

and 54—will make up about 66 percent of the

labor force. The share of the 55-and-older age

group will increase from 14.3 percent to 19.1

percent of the labor force.

As a result of divergent rates of population

growth in the past, racial and Hispanic-origin

groups are projected to continue to show widely

varied rates of growth. By 2012, due to faster

population growth resulting from a younger

population, higher fertility rates, and increased

immigration levels, the Hispanic labor force is

expected to reach 23.8 million. Despite slowerthan-average growth, white non-Hispanics

will continue to make up about 66 percent of

the labor force.

Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics produces medium-term, or 10-year, labor

force projections. The present set of projections covers the 2002–12 period and estimates

the future size and composition of the labor

force.1

 The labor force projections are used as

input in projecting the industrial and occuMitra Toossi is an

economist in the

Office of Occupational Statistics and

Employment

Projections, Bureau of

Labor Statistics. E-mail:

Toossi_M@bls.gov

Labor Force Projections

Employment outlook: 2002–12
38 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Table 1. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Level Change Percent change

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

Total, 16 years

and older ............... 110,204 128,105 142,534 144,863 162,269 17,901 14,429 17,406 16.2 11.3 12.0

16 to 24 ............... 24,606 21,616 22,425 22,366 24,377 –2,990 809 2,011 –12.2 3.7 9.0

25 to 54 ............... 70,506 91,429 99,865 101,720 106,866 20,923 8,436 5,146 29.7 9.2 5.1

55 and older ........ 15,092 15,060 20,244 20,777 31,026 –32 5,184 10,249 –.2 34.4 49.3

................................

Men ......................... 62,450 69,964 76,052 77,500 85,252 7,514 6,088 7,751 12.0 8.7 10.0

Women .................... 47,754 58,141 66,481 67,363 77,017 10,387 8,340 9,654 21.8 14.3 14.3

................................

One race:

White ..................... 96,143 108,837 118,569 120,150 130,358 12,694 9,732 10,208 13.2 8.9 8.5

Black ..................... 11,331 14,162 16,834 16,564 19,765 2,831 2,672 3,201 25.0 18.9 19.3

Asian ..................... 2,730 5,106 7,130 5,949 8,971 2,376 2,024 3,022 87.0 39.6 50.8

All other groups2 ..... ... ... ... 2,200 3,175 ... ... 975 ... ... 44.3

Hispanic origin ........ 6,734 11,338 16,200 17,942 23,785 4,604 4,862 5,843 68.4 42.9 32.6

Other than Hispanic

origin ..................... 103,470 116,767 126,334 126,921 138,484 13,297 9,567 11,562 12.9 8.2 9.1

White

non-Hispanic ......... 89,630 98,724 103,360 103,348 106,237 9,094 4,636 2,889 10.1 4.7 2.8

...........................

2000

census

weights

1990

census

weights

2002

Group

pational employment patterns of the U.S. economy.

The labor force projections are estimated by combining

population projections calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau

with the labor force participation rate projections developed

by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2 Consequently, the labor

force is a reflection of changes in either the population trend

or the labor force participation rate. Changes in the labor force

are better understood if they are decomposed into these two

components, each of which is therefore discussed separately

in what follows.

Population projections

The population projections provided to the Bureau of Labor

Statistics by the Census Bureau for this round of projections

were based on the 2000 census of the U.S. population (hereafter referred to as Census 2000; see box on this page). The

Census Bureau makes several alternative population projections based on different assumptions about future fertility,

mortality, and migration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics selects the middle-series scenario of the population projections

as a basis for its labor force projections. The main assumptions of the middle series are as follows:

• The level of childbearing among women is assumed

to remain close to the present levels, with differences

by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time.

• Mortality is assumed to decline gradually, with less

variation by race and Hispanic origin than at present.

• International migration is assumed to vary over

Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the United

States, a 13.2-percent increase over the 1990-census population of 248.7 million. Numerically, the increase was 32.7

million, the largest between two censuses. In April 1999, the

Census Bureau had estimated that the U.S. population

would reach 274.6 million in 2000. Although the difference

between the estimates and the projections—the so-called

error of closure—was a considerable 6.8 million, Census

2000 resulted in a more accurate count and higher population controls for all racial, sex, age, and ethnicity categories.

According to Census 2000, the number of Hispanics had

grown substantially from the previous census, making Hispanics the largest minority in the U.S. population. This

higher population count was reflected most significantly

among Hispanic men and in the younger age category of 18

to 29 years. (More information is available on the Census

Bureau website, http://www.census.gov/population/www/

projections/popproj.html.)

Census 2000 and the U.S. population

See footnotes at end of table.

1
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 39

Table 1. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent)

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

Total, 16 years and older .......... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5 1.1 1.1

16 to 24 ................................... 22.3 16.9 15.7 15.4 15.0 –1.3 .4 .9

25 to 54 ................................... 64.0 71.4 70.1 70.2 65.9 2.6 .9 .5

55 and older ............................ 13.7 11.8 14.2 14.3 19.1 .0 3.0 4.1

..................................................

Men ........................................... 56.7 54.6 53.4 53.5 52.5 1.1 .8 1.0

Women ...................................... 43.3 45.4 46.6 46.5 47.5 2.0 1.3 1.3

..................................................

One race:

White ....................................... 87.2 85.0 83.2 82.9 80.3 1.2 .9 .8

Black ....................................... 10.3 11.1 11.8 11.4 12.2 2.3 1.7 1.8

Asian ....................................... 2.5 4.0 5.0 4.1 5.5 6.5 3.4 4.2

All other groups2 ....................... ... ... ... 1.5 2.0 ... ... 3.7

..................................................

Hispanic origin .......................... 6.1 8.9 11.4 12.4 14.7 5.3 3.6 2.9

..................................................

Other than Hispanic origin ........ 93.9 91.1 88.6 87.6 85.3 1.2 .8 .9

White non-Hispanic ................... 81.3 77.1 72.5 71.3 65.5 1.0 .5 .3

2000

census

weights

2002

1990

census

weights

Group

1

 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category

with 1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights

represent the “Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census

weights represent the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the

“Asian only” category with 2000 census weights.

2 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial

categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian

and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The

category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by BLS.

time and decrease, in general, relative to the size of the

population.3

Race and ethnicity projections

To comply with the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the 1965 Voting

Rights Act, and other domestic laws, Federal agencies, including the Census Bureau, are required to collect data on

race and ethnicity. The number of racial categories has gone

through numerous changes between the censuses. The categories established by the Office of Management and Budget

prior to Census 2000 were “white,” “black,” and “Asian and

other.” American Indians/Alaska Natives and Hawaiian and

Pacific Islanders constituted the “other” part of the “Asian

and other” category.

 The 2000 census allowed persons to choose more than

one racial identity. Thus, the 2000 census uses the following

racial categories: “white (only),” “black (only),” “Asian

(only),” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” and “Native

Hawaiian and Pacific Islander.” The term “only” refers to those

who selected one race. Anyone who indicated that he or she

was of more than one race was categorized as belonging to a

multiple racial group.4

 As a result of these changes, the 1990

and 2000 censuses are not directly comparable with regard to

racial categories of population and the labor force. There are

no historical data for the new categories, causing breaks in

the continuity of old categories. This situation has presented

the Bureau of Labor Statistics with great challenges in the

process of constructing labor force projections.

Problem of historical comparability. The Current Population Survey (CPS) is the source of historical data on the civilian noninstitutional population, labor force levels, and labor

force participation rates used in BLS labor force projections.5

Although the CPS totals have been adjusted for the 2000 census, the actual transition to 2000-based racial categories began with the January 2003 release of CPS data.

The new racial categories are not exactly the same as those

used in the past, but they are close enough to allow the development of time series of labor force participation rates as a

basis for projecting these rates over the 2002–12 period. On

the basis of projections of both the population and labor

force participation rates of the new racial and ethnicity categories, labor force levels are projected for the various

groups. However, the levels calculated under the new categories will not be the same as under the old ones. For example, the “white only,” “black only,” and “Asian only”

groups in 2000-based actual and projected data are not directly comparable to the white, black, and “Asian and other”

groups, respectively, in the historical data. In particular, the

1
40 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected

 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

 Level Change

 1982 1992 2012 1982– 1992– 2002– 1982– 1992– 2002– 1982 1992 2012

92 2002 12 92 2002 12

Total, 16

years and

 older ............ 172,271 192,805 213,976 217,570 241,604 20,534 21,171 24,034 1.1 1.0 1.1 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24.......... 36,608 32,687 35,458 35,343 37,833 –3,921 2,771 2,490 –1.1 .8 .7 21.3 17.0 16.6 16.2 15.7

16 to 19 ........ 15,763 13,840 16,223 15,995 16,433 –1,923 2,383 438 –1.3 1.6 .3 9.2 7.2 7.6 7.4 6.8

20 to 24 ........ 20,845 18,846 19,235 19,348 21,400 –1,999 389 2,052 –1.0 .2 1.0 12.1 9.8 9.0 8.9 8.9

25 to 54.......... 88,367 109,336 119,849 122,076 125,594 20,969 10,513 3,518 2.2 .9 .3 51.3 56.7 56.0 56.1 52.0

25 to 34 ........ 38,492 42,278 36,857 38,471 41,510 3,786 –5,421 3,039 .9 –1.4 .8 22.3 21.9 17.2 17.7 17.2

35 to 44 ........ 27,611 39,852 43,954 43,894 40,043 12,241 4,102 –3,851 3.7 1.0 –.9 16.0 20.7 20.5 20.2 16.6

45 to 54 ........ 22,264 27,206 39,038 39,711 44,040 4,942 11,832 4,329 2.0 3.7 1.0 12.9 14.1 18.2 18.3 18.2

55 and older ... 47,297 50,783 58,669 60,151 78,178 3,486 7,886 18,027 .7 1.5 2.7 27.5 26.3 27.4 27.6 32.4

55 to 64 ........ 21,909 20,604 25,662 26,343 37,829 –1,305 5,058 11,486 –.6 2.2 3.7 12.7 10.7 12.0 12.1 15.7

65 and older . 25,387 30,179 33,007 33,808 40,349 4,792 2,828 6,541 1.7 .9 1.8 14.7 15.7 15.4 15.5 16.7

65 to 74 ...... 15,856 18,012 17,635 17,999 22,924 2,156 –378 4,925 1.3 –.2 2.4 9.2 9.3 8.2 8.3 9.5

75 and

older ......... 9,556 12,167 15,373 15,809 17,426 2,611 3,206 1,617 2.4 2.4 1.0 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.3 7.2

.......................

Men, 16 years

 and older ....... 81,523 92,270 102,925 104,585 116,634 10,747 10,655 12,049 1.2 1.1 1.1 47.3 47.9 48.1 48.1 48.3

16 to 24.......... 18,015 16,349 17,798 17,773 18,973 –1,666 1,449 1,200 –1.0 .9 .7 10.5 8.5 8.3 8.2 7.9

16 to 19 ........ 7,879 7,023 8,250 8,146 8,319 -856 1,227 173 –1.1 1.6 .2 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.7 3.4

20 to 24 ........ 10,136 9,326 9,548 9,627 10,654 –810 222 1,027 –.8 .2 1.0 5.9 4.8 4.5 4.4 4.4

25 to 54.......... 42,923 53,648 58,736 59,939 61,988 10,725 5,088 2,049 2.3 .9 .3 24.9 27.8 27.4 27.5 25.7

25 to 34 ........ 18,787 20,792 18,013 19,036 20,620 2,005 –2,779 1,584 1.0 –.4 .8 10.9 10.8 8.4 8.7 8.5

35 to 44 ........ 13,410 19,585 21,665 21,524 19,775 6,175 2,080 –1,749 3.9 1.0 –.8 7.8 10.2 10.1 9.9 8.2

45 to 54 ........ 10,726 13,271 19,058 19,379 21,594 2,545 5,787 2,215 2.2 3.7 1.1 6.2 6.9 8.9 8.9 8.9

55 and older ... 20,586 22,273 26,392 26,873 35,673 1,687 4,119 8,800 .8 1.7 2.9 11.9 11.6 12.3 12.4 14.8

55 to 64 ...... 10,215 9,776 12,267 12,640 18,184 –439 2,491 5,544 –.4 2.3 3.7 5.9 5.1 5.7 5.8 7.5

65 and older 10,371 12,496 14,124 14,233 17,489 2,125 1,628 3,256 1.9 1.2 2.1 6.0 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.2

65 to 74 .. 6,867 7,969 8,045 8,160 10,583 1,102 76 2,423 1.5 .1 2.6 4.0 4.1 3.8 3.8 4.4

75 and

older ..... 3,504 4,527 6,079 6,073 6,906 1,023 1,552 833 2.6 3.0 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.8 2.8 2.9

Women,

16 years

and older ...... 90,748 100,535 111,051 112,985 124,971 9,787 10,516 11,986 1.0 1.0 1.0 52.7 52.1 51.9 51.9 51.7

16 to 24.......... 18,593 16,338 17,660 17,570 18,860 –2,255 1,322 1,290 –1.3 .8 .7 10.8 8.5 8.3 8.1 7.8

16 to 19 ........ 7,884 6,818 7,973 7,849 8,114 –1,066 1,155 265 –1.4 1.6 .3 4.6 3.5 3.7 3.6 3.4

20 to 24 ........ 10,709 9,520 9,688 9,721 10,746 –1,189 168 1,025 –1.2 .2 1.0 6.2 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.4

25 to 54 ........ 45,444 55,688 61,113 62,137 63,606 10,244 5,425 1,469 2.1 .9 .2 26.4 28.9 28.6 28.6 26.3

25 to 34 ...... 19,705 21,486 18,844 19,435 20,891 1,781 –2,642 1,456 .9 –1.3 .7 11.4 11.1 8.8 8.9 8.6

35 to 44 ...... 14,201 20,267 22,289 22,370 20,269 6,066 2,022 –2,101 3.6 1.0 –1.0 8.2 10.5 10.4 10.3 8.4

45 to 54 ...... 11,538 13,935 19,980 20,332 22,446 2,397 6,045 2,114 1.9 3.7 1.0 6.7 7.2 9.3 9.3 9.3

55 and older ... 26,711 28,510 32,277 33,278 42,505 1,799 3,767 9,227 .7 1.2 2.5 15.5 14.8 15.1 15.3 17.6

55 to 64 ........ 11,694 10,828 13,395 13,703 19,645 –866 2,567 5,942 –.8 2.1 3.7 6.8 5.6 6.3 6.3 8.1

65 and older . 15,017 17,682 18,883 19,575 22,861 2,665 1,201 3,286 1.6 .7 1.6 8.7 9.2 8.8 9.0 9.5

65 to 74 ........ 8,989 10,043 9,589 9,839 12,341 1,054 –454 2,502 1.1 –.5 2.3 5.2 5.2 4.5 4.5 5.1

75 and

older ........... 6,052 7,640 9,293 9,736 10,519 1,588 1,653 783 2.4 2.0 .8 3.5 4.0 4.3 4.5 4.4

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

Group 2002 2002

See footnotes at end of table.

Annual growth rate Percent distribution
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 41

White, 16

years and

older ........... 149,441 162,972 177,313 179,783 193,831 13,531 14,341 14,048 0.9 0.8 0.8 86.7 84.5 82.9 82.6 80.2

Men ........... 71,211 78,651 86,160 87,361 94,647 7,440 7,509 7,286 1.0 1.0 .8 41.3 40.8 40.3 40.2 39.2

Women ..... 78,230 84,321 91,152 92,422 99,184 6,091 6,831 6,762 .8 .8 .7 45.4 43.7 42.6 42.5 41.1

Black, 16

years and

older ........... 18,584 22,147 25,956 25,578 29,800 3,563 3,809 4,222 1.8 1.6 1.5 10.8 11.5 12.1 11.8 12.3

Men ........... 8,283 9,896 11,657 11,391 13,486 1,613 1,761 2,095 1.8 1.7 1.7 4.8 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.6

Women ..... 10,300 12,251 14,299 14,187 16,314 1,951 2,048 2,127 1.7 1.6 1.4 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.8

Asian, 16

 years and

 older .......... 4,211 7,685 10,707 8,971 11,877 3,474 3,022 2,906 6.2 3.4 2.8 2.4 4.0 5.0 4.1 4.9

Men ........... 1,991 3,721 5,108 4,252 5,507 1,730 1,387 1,255 6.5 3.2 2.6 1.2 1.9 2.4 2.0 2.3

Women ..... 2,220 3,964 5,599 4,719 6,370 1,744 1,635 1,651 6.0 3.5 3.0 1.3 2.1 2.6 2.2 2.6

All other

groups,

 16 years

and older2 ... ... ... ... 4,728 6,097 ... ... 1,369 ... ... 2.6 ... ... ... 2.2 2.5

Men ........... ... ... ... 2,309 2,994 ... ... 685 ... ... 2.6 ... ... ... 1.1 1.2

Women ..... ... ... ... 2,419 3,103 ... ... 684 ... ... 2.5 ... ... ... 1.1 1.3

Hispanic

 origin,

16 years

and older .... 10,580 16,961 23,899 25,965 34,561 6,381 6,938 8,596 4.8 3.5 2.9 6.1 8.8 11.2 11.9 14.3

Men ........... 5,203 8,553 11,767 13,221 17,298 3,350 3,214 4,077 5.1 3.2 2.7 3.0 4.4 5.5 6.1 7.2

 Women .... 5,360 8,408 12,131 12,742 17,263 3,048 3,723 4,521 4.6 3.7 3.1 3.1 4.4 5.7 5.9 7.1

Other than

Hispanic

origin, 16

years and

older ........... 161,691 175,844 190,077 191,605 207,043 14,153 14,233 15,438 .8 .8 .8 93.9 91.2 88.8 88.1 85.7

Men ........... 76,320 83,717 91,158 91,364 99,335 7,397 7,441 7,971 .9 .9 .8 44.3 43.4 42.6 42.0 41.1

Women ...... 85,388 92,127 98,919 100,243 107,708 6,739 6,792 7,465 .8 .7 .7 49.6 47.8 46.2 46.1 44.6

White nonHispanic,

16 and

older ........... 139,201 148,029 154,818 155,458 161,729 8,828 6,790 6,271 .6 .4 .4 80.8 76.8 72.4 71.5 66.9

Men ........... 66,177 71,076 75,070 74,956 78,542 4,898 3,995 3,586 .7 .5 .5 38.4 36.9 35.1 34.5 32.5

Women ..... 73,024 76,953 79,748 80,502 83,187 3,929 2,795 2,685 .5 .4 .3 42.4 39.9 37.3 37.0 34.4

Age of baby

boomers ..... 18 to 36 28 to 46 38 to 56 38 to 56 48 to 66 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Table 2. Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and

 projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Annual growth rate Percent distribution

1982– 1992– 2002– 1982– 1992– 2002–

92 2002 12 92 2002 12

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

Group 1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

2002

1982 1992 1982 1992 2012

2

 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial

categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian

and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The

category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by

BLS.

sum of the three new one-race groups will not add to the total,

because there is a residual comprising “all other racial

groups,” a category that includes American Indians, Alaska

Natives, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders, as well as

those reporting that they belong to multiple racial groups.

Trends in Population

Table 2 provides a snapshot of the U.S. population at 10-year

intervals over the 1982–2012 period. The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to continue to grow at 1.1 percent

2012

2002

Level Change

1 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the

“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent

the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category

with 2000 census weights.

1
42 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

annually during the 2002–12 projection period, reaching 241.6

million in 2012.

Beginning with the 20th century, several demographic

events have had significant impacts on the size, composition,

and growth of the population:

• High rates of reproduction for the population born

prior to the 1920s, plus high immigration from Europe

(chiefly from Italy, Ireland, and Poland) that occurred in

the first two decades of the 20th century.

• The “birth dearth” of the late 1920s and early 1930s.

The effect of the birth dearth is reflected in the declining number of persons aged 55 to 64 years from 1982 to

1992 and the drop in the number of those aged 65 to 74

years from 1992 to 2002. In 2002–12, the birth dearth is

manifested in the slow growth of the 75-and-older age

group.

• The “baby boom” starting in 1946 and lasting until

 1964—a period of 18 years. The impact of this surge in

the population level can be traced by following the

movements of the baby-boom generation through age

groups with the greatest increase in each period. For

example, the 35- to 44-year age group increased most

significantly (almost 12.2 million) over the 1982–92 period, and the 45- to 54-year age group had its greatest

increase (nearly 11.8 million) over the 1992–2002 period. For the 2002–12 projection period, persons aged

55 to 64 years include the boomers and are expected to

have the greatest growth in population, 11.5 million.

• The “baby bust,” reflecting the drop in birthrates

after 1965 and through the 1970s. The population in the

age group following the baby boomers, including those

aged 16 to 24 years in 1982–92, 25 to 34 years from 1992

to 2002, and 35 to 44 years in the 2002–12 projection

period, show declining numbers. From 2002 to 2012,

the number of persons aged 35 to 44 years is expected

to decline by 3.8 million. This same age group increased

by 12.2 million during 1982–92, when it contained a high

concentration of baby boomers.

• The “baby-boom echo,” reflecting a modest increase

in births from the late 1970s through the early 1990s.

The baby-boom echo is traceable to the increase in

births of the women of the baby-boom generation and

is reflected in the growth of the population aged 16 to

24 years during 2002–12.

• The massive migration to the United States that

started in the 1970s and is continuing today. The dramatic increase in the immigrant population has resulted

in higher growth rates for the U.S. population. In addition, because all children born to immigrants in the

United States are, by definition, natives, immigration

has resulted in increased fertility rates for specific

groups, again adding to the growth of the population.

The estimated future trends in the civilian noninstitutional

population are based on the Census Bureau’s middle population projection assumptions and reflect all of the foregoing

demographic events. The Census Bureau provides the Bureau of Labor Statistics with an estimate of the future resident

population. The Bureau of Labor Statistics then transforms

the projections for the resident population to a projection of

the civilian noninstitutional population by making several adjustments to the data. First, the Bureau estimates trends in the

Armed Forces, to produce an estimate of the civilian population. Then, on the basis of another set of assumptions about

the institutionalization of the different categories of population, the civilian population is transformed to the civilian

noninstitutional population for the years covered by the

BLS projections.

Table 2 shows the two estimates of the 2002 civilian noninstitutional population, one with the 1990 census weights and

one with the 2000 census weights. In accordance with the

2000 weights, the civilian noninstitutional population was

217.6 million in 2002 and is projected to reach nearly 242 million, in 2012. The share of youths—persons aged 16 to 24

years—was 16.2 percent in 2002 and is projected to decrease

to 15.7 percent in 2012. The working-age population (those

aged 25 to 54 years) also will decrease in share, from 56 percent in 2002 to 52 percent in 2012. The older age segment of

the civilian noninstitutional population, those aged 55 years

and older, will increase its relative share, from 27.6 percent to

more than 32 percent. The fastest-growing age category is

the 55-to-64 age group, with 3.7 percent annual growth, followed by the 65-to-74 age group, with 2.4 percent growth.

As regards the sex categories, the civilian noninstitutional

population of men stood at 104.6 million in 2002 and is projected to be 116.6 million in 2012, 48 percent of the total civilian noninstitutional population that year. The women’s civilian noninstitutional population was around 113 million in 2002

and is projected to be nearly 125 million in 2012, 52 percent of

the total civilian noninstitutional population that year. In 2012,

the civilian noninstitutional population of women will thus be

nearly 8 million more than men.

Census 2000 resulted in higher numbers than previous

estimates for the total population and for some segments of

the population. The group most affected was Hispanics, especially the younger age groups, which showed much higher

population numbers. The Hispanic population was nearly 26

million in 2002 and is projected to increase to nearly 35 million

in 2012, a growth rate of 2.9 percent, much faster than the
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 43

white non-Hispanic growth rate of 0.4 percent, over the 2002–

12 period.

The youth population, aged 16 to 24 years, is expected to

grow 0.7 percent annually. The population of the 55-and-older

age group is projected to increase by 18 million over the projection period, or 2.7 percent per year. Those aged 55 to 64 are

estimated to increase by 11.5 million over the period, or 3.7

percent annually, a rate higher than that of all other age

groups. As a result of the birth dearth that followed the baby

boom, the 35-to-44 age group will be the only group to decrease in numbers.

The impact of migration

Among the three major components of national population

change—births, deaths, and international migration—the last

is hardest to project, in large part because international migration is affected by many factors, some of which are difficult to predict. The Census Bureau uses age- and sex-specific

rates from the 1980s to project net migration as a basis for its

population projections. However, overall net migration still

would account for a sizable proportion of the net population

growth over the projected 2002–12 period.

Migration affects the demographic composition of the

population in several ways. (See table 2.) The first is reflected

in the rapid growth rate of some of the racial and ethnic categories, such as the Hispanic population. The projected

growth rates for some of these racial groups are expected to

be greater than they were the previous decade, increasing the

groups’ shares of the labor force.

 The second way migration affects the composition of the

population is by age distribution. For example, persons aged

25 to 34 years numbered 38.5 million in 1982. Ten years later,

this same cohort was even larger, nearly 40 million. Similarly,

the number of persons aged 20 to 24 years grew from almost

21 million to slightly more than 42 million 10 years later. Because everyone in these age groups has already been born,

an increase in births does not affect the size of the groups.

The only way these cohorts could increase their numbers is

through net migration. Thus, the population at these relatively young age cohorts is significantly affected by migration.6

 The increase in immigration levels since the mid-1980s

was at least partially the result of the provisions of the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986. As the immigrants

admitted into the country under the Act became citizens, they

could sponsor the legal immigration of immediate relatives

without being subject to numerical limits.

Labor force participation rates

The labor force participation rates—the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population in the labor force—by age,

sex, race, and Hispanic origin are shown in table 3. The Census 2000 changes in the racial categories affected both population and labor force data in a comparable fashion. Therefore, it did not generally affect the observed trends in the

labor force participation rates in any considerable way.

Participation rates by age. The youth labor force, consisting of persons aged 16 to 24 years, had a participation rate of

63.3 percent in 2002. The participation rate of this age group is

expected to rise slightly, to 64.4 percent, in 2012. School attendance has been the main reason for the group’s relatively low

participation rate. Within the group, the participation rate for

those aged 20 to 24 years is expected to rise from 76.4 percent

to 78.2 percent.

The participation rate is highest among 25- to 54-year-olds;

the group’s rate has been higher than 80 percent for the last

several decades. The participation rate of this group is projected to rise to 85.1 percent in 2012, from 83.3 percent in 2002.

Labor force participation rates generally decline dramatically for the 55-and-older age group relative to other age

groups. The participation rate for these older persons historically had been declining until 1985. Since then, the 55-to-64

age group increased its participation rate from 55.1 percent in

1982 to 56.2 percent in 1992. The rate rose to 61.9 percent in

2002 and is expected to reach 65.1 percent by 2012. The 65-to74 age group had a participation rate of 16.2 percent in 1982.

The rate increased to 20.4 percent in 2000 and is projected to

rise to 23.6 percent by 2012.

Participation rates by sex and age. The labor force participation rates of men always have been higher than those of

women, both at the aggregate level and for the various age

groups. As table 3 illustrates, the gap between the labor force

participation rates of men and women has been shrinking for

decades, reflected in the two groups’ different trends in participation rates. In general, except for those 55 years and older,

the rates for men have been declining. The overall labor force

participation rate of men stood at 76.6 in 1982 and fell to 75.8

in 1992. In 2002, the participation rate of men declined further,

to 74.1. The men’s participation rate is expected to continue to

decrease and reach 73.1 in 2012. In contrast, the rates for

women have been increasing over these periods. The overall

labor force participation rate of women was 52.6 percent in

1982, increasing to 57.8 percent in 1992 and 59.6 percent in

2002. The labor force participation rate of women is projected

to be 61.6 percent in 2012. The labor force participation rate of

women 55 years and older is expected to be 34.5 percent in

2012. Included in this age group are women 55 to 64 years,

whose participation rate has the highest percentage-point

change between 2002 and 2012. These women are projected

to have a 60.6-percent participation rate in 2012.

The age-specific participation rates of men have been decreasing across many age groups; as a result, the aggregate
44 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Table 3. Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected

 2012

Participation rate Percentage-point change Annual growth rate

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

Total, 16 years

 and older ................ 64.0 66.4 66.6 66.6 67.2 2.5 0.2 0.6 0.4 0.0 0.1

16 to 24 ..................... 67.2 66.1 63.2 63.3 64.4 –1.1 –2.9 1.2 –.2 –.4 .2

16 to 19 ................... 54.1 51.3 47.6 47.4 46.5 –2.8 –3.7 –1.0 –.5 –.7 –.2

20 to 24 ................... 77.2 77.1 76.4 76.4 78.2 –.1 –.6 1.8 .0 –.1 .2

25 to 54 ..................... 79.8 83.6 83.3 83.3 85.1 3.8 –.3 1.8 .5 .0 .2

25 to 34 ................... 81.0 83.7 83.6 83.7 85.3 2.6 .0 1.6 .3 .0 .2

35 to 44 ................... 81.2 85.1 84.2 84.1 86.0 3.8 –.9 1.9 .5 –.1 .2

45 to 54 ................... 75.9 81.5 82.1 82.1 84.1 5.6 .6 2.0 .7 .1 .2

55 and older .............. 31.9 29.7 34.5 34.5 39.7 –2.3 4.9 5.1 –.7 1.5 1.4

55 to 64 ................... 55.1 56.2 61.8 61.9 65.1 1.2 5.6 3.2 .2 1.0 .5

65 and older .......... 11.9 11.5 13.3 13.2 15.9 –.4 1.8 2.7 –.4 1.4 1.9

65 to 74 ................. 16.2 16.3 20.4 20.4 23.6 .1 4.1 3.2 .1 2.3 1.5

75 and older .......... `4.9 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.7 –.4 .7 .7 –.9 1.4 1.2

Men, 16 years

and older ................. 76.6 75.8 73.9 74.1 73.1 –.8 –1.9 –1.0 –.1 –.3 –.1

16 to 24 ..................... 72.6 70.5 65.3 65.5 65.7 –2.1 –5.2 .2 –.3 –.8 .0

16 to 19 ................... 56.7 53.4 47.6 47.5 45.6 –3.3 –5.8 –1.9 –.6 –1.1 –.4

20 to 24 ................... 84.9 83.3 80.6 80.7 81.4 –1.6 –2.7 .7 –.2 –.3 .1

25 to 54 ..................... 94.0 93.0 91.0 91.0 91.0 –1.0 –2.0 .0 –.1 –.2 .0

25 to 34 ................... 94.7 93.8 92.4 92.4 92.5 –.9 –1.4 .0 –.1 –.2 .0

35 to 44 ................... 95.3 93.7 92.1 92.1 92.3 –1.6 –1.6 .1 –.2 –.2 .0

45 to 54 ................... 91.2 90.7 88.5 88.5 88.6 –.5 –2.3 .1 –.1 –.3 .0

55 and older .............. 43.8 38.4 41.7 42.0 45.8 –5.4 3.2 3.8 –1.3 .8 .9

55 to 64 ................... 70.2 67.0 69.2 69.2 69.9 –3.2 2.2 .7 –.5 .3 .1

65 and older .......... 17.8 16.1 17.8 17.9 20.8 –1.7 1.7 3.0 –1.0 1.1 1.5

65 to 74 ................. 22.5 21.1 25.4 25.5 29.1 –1.4 4.3 3.6 –.7 1.9 1.3

75 and older .......... 8.5 7.3 7.6 7.6 8.2 –1.2 .4 .5 –1.5 .5 .7

Women, 16 years

and older ................. 52.6 57.8 59.9 59.6 61.6 5.2 2.0 2.0 .9 .3 .3

16 to 24 ..................... 62.0 61.8 61.2 61.1 63.2 –.2 –.6 2.1 .0 –.1 .3

16 to 19 ................... 51.4 49.1 47.6 47.3 47.4 –2.4 –1.4 .1 –.5 –.3 .0

20 to 24 ................... 69.8 70.9 72.3 72.1 75.1 1.1 1.4 3.0 .2 .2 .4

25 to 54 ..................... 66.3 74.6 76.0 75.9 79.3 8.3 1.4 3.4 1.2 .2 .4

25 to 34 ................... 68.0 73.9 75.3 75.1 78.2 5.9 1.4 3.1 .8 .2 .4

35 to 44 ................... 68.0 76.7 76.5 76.4 79.9 8.8 –.2 3.4 1.2 .0 .4

45 to 54 ................... 61.6 72.6 76.0 76.0 79.8 11.0 3.3 3.8 1.7 .5 .5

55 and older .............. 22.7 22.8 28.7 28.5 34.5 .1 5.9 6.0 .0 2.3 1.9

55 to 64 ................... 41.8 46.5 55.1 55.2 60.6 4.7 8.6 5.4 1.1 1.7 .9

65 and older .......... 7.9 8.3 9.9 9.8 12.1 .4 1.6 2.3 .5 1.8 2.1

65 to 74 ................. 11.3 12.5 16.1 16.1 18.9 1.1 3.7 2.8 1.0 2.6 1.6

75 and older .......... 2.8 2.8 3.5 3.5 4.1 .0 .7 .6 .1 2.3 1.7

Group

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

2002

See footnote at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 45

White, 16 years

and older ................. 64.3 66.8 66.9 66.8 66.2 2.4 0.1 –0.6 0 .4 0.0 –0.1

Men ........................ 77.4 76.5 74.6 74.8 73.5 –.9 –1.9 –1.2 –.1 –.3 –.2

Women ................... 52.4 57.7 59.6 59.3 59.2 5.3 1.9 –.1 1.0 .3 .0

Black, 16 years

and older ................. 61.0 63.9 64.9 64.8 66.3 3.0 .9 1.6 .5 .1 .2

Men ........................ 70.1 70.7 66.4 68.4 69.1 .6 –4.3 .7 .1 –.6 .1

Women ................... 53.7 58.5 62.0 61.8 64.0 4.8 3.5 2.2 .9 .6 .4

Asian, 16 years

 and older .................. 64.8 66.5 66.6 66.3 68.7 1.7 .1 2.4 .3 .0 .4

Men ........................ 76.0 75.2 75.2 75.6 77.3 –.7 –.1 1.7 –.1 .0 .2

Women ................... 54.8 58.2 58.8 57.9 61.3 3.5 .5 3.4 .6 .1 .6

Hispanic origin,

16 years and older .. 63.6 66.8 67.8 69.1 68.8 3.2 .9 –.3 .5 .1 .0

Men ........................ 79.5 80.7 78.8 80.2 79.0 1.2 –1.9 –1.2 .1 –.2 –.1

Women ................... 48.2 52.8 57.1 57.5 58.6 4.5 4.3 1.0 .9 .8 .2

Other than Hispanic

 origin, 16 years

 and older ................ 64.0 66.4 66.5 72.3 66.9 2.4 .1 –5.4 0.4 .0 –.8

Men ........................ 76.4 75.3 73.3 78.3 72.1 –1.1 –2.1 –6.3 –.1 –.3 –.8

Women ................... 52.9 58.3 60.2 66.7 62.1 5.4 1.9 –4.6 1.0 .3 –.7

White non-Hispanic,

16 years and older .. 64.4 66.7 66.8 66.5 65.7 2.3 .1 –.8 0.4 .0 –.1

Men ........................ 77.2 76.0 73.9 73.8 72.4 –1.3 –2.0 –1.4 –.2 –.3 –.2

Women ................... 52.7 58.1 60.0 59.6 59.4 5.5 1.9 –.3 1.0 .3 .0

Table 3. Continued—Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002,

 and projected 2012

Participation rate Percentage-point change Annual growth rate

 1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

2002

Group

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

labor force participation rates of men have consistently

moved downward. The labor force participation rate for men

65 years and older began to increase in the 1980s. The labor

force participation rate for men 65 to 74 years increased by

4.3 percentage points from 1992 to 2002, reversing a trend

dating back to 1890. This group’s labor force participation

rate is projected to be 29.1 percent in 2012, up 3.6 percentage

points from the 2002 figure.

The overall expansion of the U.S. economy over the past

several decades, the provision of inflation-adjusted Social

Security and Medicare benefits, and the growth of pensions

and nonpension assets has provided more people with an

adequate standard of living in retirement. All these factors

may explain the declining labor force participation of men,

particularly aged 65 years and older. However, since 1985,

the decrease in the labor force participation rate has stabilized.

A number of reasons explain why the overall labor force

participation rate of men had been decreasing up until the

mid-1980s and why the labor force participation rate of men

aged 55 years and older has started an upward trend.

First, during the 1950–80 period, defined benefit pension

coverage became more widespread. Under this plan, workers

realized a higher return on pension benefits by retiring as

soon as they became eligible. During most of the 1980s, employment downsizing plans frequently included early pensions and lump-sum payments to older workers. By contrast,

since the end of the 1980s, the conversion of pension plans

from a defined benefit to a defined contribution approach has

discouraged early retirements and reversed the declining

trends of participation rates for men aged 55 years and older.

The share of defined contribution plans increased from about

20 percent in 1981 to nearly 60 percent in 2000.7

Research has shown that labor force participation rates

drop significantly at ages 62 and 65, which are, respectively,

the earliest age at which one can retire and receive Social

Security benefits and the “normal” age at which one can retire

and receive full Social Security benefits.8

1 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the

“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent

the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category

with 2000 census weights.

NOTE: Because the transition to 2000-based racial categories began

with the January 2003 CPS data, the labor force participation rate of the “All

other groups” category was not calculated.

1
46 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Table 4. Comparison of labor force participation rates and age composition of Hispanic and white

 non-Hispanic men, 2002

[In percent]

 Labor force participation rate Composition of population by age

White non- White nonHispanic Hispanic

16 and 17 ........................ 29.8 39.0 9.3 4.7 3.6 –1.1

18 and 19 ........................ 66.2 63.0 –3.2 5.1 3.4 –1.7

20 and 21 ........................ 79.8 76.0 –3.8 5.7 3.3 –2.4

22 to 24 ........................... 90.2 86.7 –3.5 8.6 4.7 –3.9

25 to 29 ........................... 92.8 93.1 .2 13.3 7.6 –5.8

30 to 34 ........................... 94.1 94.3 .3 14.9 8.4 –6.4

35 to 39 ........................... 92.5 93.8 1.3 10.5 9.7 –.8

40 to 44 ........................... 91.7 93.0 1.3 11.3 10.4 –.8

45 to 49 ........................... 87.6 91.5 3.9 6.9 10.4 3.5

50 to 54 ........................... 84.4 88.2 3.7 6.1 9.2 3.1

55 to 59 ........................... 75.9 79.4 3.5 3.9 7.6 3.8

60 and 61 ........................ 65.5 68.5 3.0 1.3 2.5 1.2

62 to 64 ........................... 48.9 51.2 2.2 1.7 3.3 1.6

65 to 69 ........................... 29.8 32.7 2.8 1.9 4.8 2.9

70 to 74 ........................... 16.4 18.0 1.6 1.6 4.2 2.6

75 and older .................... 7.1 7.8 .7 2.7 6.9 4.2

Hispanic Hispanic

Difference

(white nonHispanic less

Hispanic)

Difference

(white nonHispanic less

Hispanic)

 Age

Second, beginning with the year 2000, the normal retirement age for receiving Social Security benefits increased, and

it will continue to do so gradually on a prescheduled basis.9

According to the new schedule, the size of the benefit is lowered for each month a recipient retires younger than the normal retirement age. The new provision will encourage workers

to continue working later in life. Under this plan, starting in

the year 2000, the age of retirement increased by 2 months for

those born in 1938, 4 months for those born in 1939, 6 months

for those born in 1940, and so on. All those who were born in

1937 or earlier are exempted from the law. People born between

1943 and 1954 (a large portion of the baby boomers) will be eligible for retirement when they reach 66. For people born in 1960

and later, the normal retirement age will be 67 years. The reduced

benefits will encourage the large number in the labor force who

are dependent on Social Security benefits for their entire income

to work longer, or else they will end up with lower benefits during

their retirement years.

The removal of the “earnings limit” law, better known as

the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act, in 2000 has eliminated work disincentives for seniors. Prior to 2000, the earnings penalty, in the form of reduced benefits for those workers

aged 65 to 70 years who earned wages, was a major disincentive to working and resulted in lower participation rates.

Participation rates by sex. Men aged 25 to 54 years are

strongly attached to the labor force, and their labor force participation rates are mostly in the low- to mid-90-percent range. For

most age groups of men under 55 years, the drop in participation

was greater in the 1992–2002 period than in the 1982–92 period.

Unlike men’s rates, the labor force participation rates of women

have been increasing across all age groups over the past several

decades. Women aged 45 to 54 years increased their participation by 11 percentage points during 1982–92, the highest among

all age groups. The same cohort displayed the greatest increase

in participation, 8.6 percent, in the 1992–2002 period, when they

reached ages 55 to 64. However, for the 2002–12 period, when

this cohort will be 65 to 74 years, they will yield their number-one

ranking to a group of younger women: those aged 55 to 64 years,

whose labor force participation rate will increase by 5.4 percent.

Interestingly, men aged 65 to 74 years are expected to increase

their participation more than women in that age range.

As table 3 indicates, the labor force participation rates of

women and men have been converging. The gap in aggregate

rates is expected to shrink by 12.5 percentage points over the

1982–2012 period, from more than 24 percentage points in

1982 to 11.5 points in 2012. In 1982, each group of women

aged 25 to 54 years had labor force participation rates 28 percentage points lower than men the same age. By 2002, these

differences had dropped by 15 percentage points; by 2012,

they will be less than 11.5 percentage points. For workers aged

16 to 24 years, the difference in 2002 was relatively small and is

expected to get even smaller. For older men and women, the

difference in participation rates, measured by percentage

points, was even smaller, reflecting a significantly lower participation at older ages.

Participation rate by race and Hispanic origin. Differences in labor force participation by race and Hispanic origin

are usually not as great as those observed by age and sex.
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 47

However, changes in labor force rates over time differ among

the various groups. When changes in participation rates are

combined with different patterns of population growth, substantial differences in the future labor force result.

The following tabulation ranks the various racial and ethnic categories in terms of their labor force participation rates

in 2002, with 1 indicating the highest rate and 4 the lowest:

Total Men Women Rank

Hispanic Hispanic Black 1

White non- White non-

 Hispanic Asian Hispanic 2

 White nonAsian Hispanic Asian 3

Black Black Hispanic 4

Note that the rankings by race differ by sex. Hispanic men

have the highest overall labor force participation rate. Hispanic women, by contrast, have the lowest participation in

the workforce relative to other racial and ethnic categories.

For blacks, the situation is reversed, with men having the

lowest participation rate and women the highest.

The high labor force participation rate for Hispanic men

reflects, in part, their age structure. Hispanics have a

younger population, with a greater proportion at the ages

of higher labor force participation. As table 4 shows, the

labor force participation rates for Hispanic men are higher

at ages 18 and 19, 20 and 21, and 22 to 24. The table also

shows that Hispanic men have proportionally more young

men than the white non-Hispanic population has. The aggregate labor force participation rate for a given racial or

ethnic group can be expressed as the weighted sum of the

age-specific rates, in which the weight for each age group

is its share of the total population. If, on the one hand,

Hispanic men had the age distribution of white non-Hispanic men in 2002, while retaining their own labor force

participation rates, their aggregate labor force participation rate would have been 72.2 percent, significantly lower

than their actual rate (80.2 percent) and only slightly lower

than the rate for white non-Hispanic men (73.8 percent).

(See table 4.) If, on the other hand, white non-Hispanic

men had the population distribution of Hispanic men in

2002, their overall participation rate would have been 81.1

percent, higher than their actual rate and above the 80.2-

percent rate for Hispanic men. Thus, the aggregate labor

force participation rate is a result of the age distribution of

the population, as well as the labor force participation rates

of the different age categories.

The preceding examples indicate that age, sex, and race

are important in describing the variations in labor force participation rates. The ranking of the overall participation rates

in 2012 is projected to change the rankings of the different

racial and ethnic categories that year:

Total Men Women Rank

Hispanic Hispanic Black 1

Asian Asian Asian 2

White non- White nonBlack Hispanic Hispanic 3

White nonHispanic Black Hispanic 4

For the total labor force participation rates by racial groups,

compared with 2002, Hispanics retained their place in the ranking and Asians achieved second place, followed by blacks

and white non-Hispanics. The rankings for men did not change

from 2002. Asians are projected to have the greatest increase,

with a 2.4-percentage-point rise in their overall rate over the

2002–12 period. This increase reflects a 3.4-percentage-point

gain in participation rate by Asian women. Overall labor force

participation rates for blacks are expected to increase during

the 2002–12 timeframe as well. The labor force participation of

white non-Hispanics is expected to decrease slightly, reflecting decreasing trends for both women and men.

Projected labor force participation rates

The overall labor force participation rate is projected to rise

by 0.6 percentage point between 2002 and 2012. Increases in

the rate are expected to be greatest for the 55-to-64 and 65-to74 age groups. The age range of peak labor force participation

in both 2002 and 2012 is still 25 to 54 years, with a participation rate in the mid-80-percent range. Thus, the baby-boom

generation’s aging by itself will act to slow overall participation growth, because baby boomers will be older than the age

of highest participation.

The labor force participation rate of men is projected to decrease by 1.0 percentage point, slightly less than the 1.9-point

decline registered over the last decade. The overall men’s rate is

a summary of the changes in the age composition of the population and changes in labor force participation for each age, as well

as of the increased racial and ethnic diversity of the male population. For men in the peak ages of labor force participation, 25 to

54 years, the rates show no growth. Older men are expected to

continue to have increasing participation.

The increase in the women’s labor force participation rate

over the past two decades has displayed a pattern of slower

growth in each successive period. The Bureau projects that

this pattern will continue for the 2002–12 period. For most age

groups, labor force participation growth is projected to be

greater during that period than during the previous 10 years.

With the aging of the population, however, the increase in the

aggregate women’s labor force participation rate is anticipated
48 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Table 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Level Change Percent change

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

Total, 16 years

and older ......... 110,204 128,105 142,534 144,863 162,269 17,901 14,429 17,406 16.2 11.3 12.0

16 to 24 ............. 24,608 21,617 22,425 22,366 24,377 –2,991 808 2,011 –12.2 3.7 9.0

16 to 19 ........... 8,526 7,096 7,723 7,586 7,636 –1,430 627 50 –16.8 8.8 0.7

20 to 24 ........... 16,082 14,521 14,702 14,780 16,740 –1,561 181 1,960 –9.7 1.2 13.3

25 to 54 ............. 70,506 91,429 99,865 101,720 106,866 20,923 8,436 5,146 29.7 9.2 5.1

25 to 34 ........... 31,186 35,369 30,831 32,196 35,406 4,183 –4,538 3,210 13.4 –12.8 10.0

35 to 44 ........... 22,431 33,899 36,998 36,927 34,434 11,468 3,099 –2,493 51.1 9.1 –6.8

45 to 54 ........... 16,889 22,160 32,036 32,597 37,026 5,271 9,876 4,429 31.2 44.6 13.6

55 and older ...... 15,092 15,060 20,244 20,777 31,026 –32 5,184 10,249 –.2 34.4 49.3

55 to 64 ........... 12,062 11,587 15,863 16,308 24,616 –475 4,276 8,308 –3.9 36.9 50.9

65 and older .... 3,030 3,473 4,381 4,469 6,410 443 908 1,941 14.6 26.2 43.4

65 to 74 ......... 2,566 2,932 3,593 3,665 5,411 366 661 1,746 14.3 22.5 47.6

75 and older .. 464 542 789 804 1,000 78 247 196 16.8 45.5 24.3

..........................

Men, 16 years

 and older .......... 62,450 69,964 76,052 77,500 85,252 7,514 6,088 7,751 12.0 8.7 10.0

16 to 24 ............. 13,074 11,521 11,619 11,639 12,461 –1,553 98 822 –11.9 .8 7.1

16 to 19 ........... 4,470 3,751 3,926 3,870 3,791 –719 175 –79 –16.1 4.7 –2.0

20 to 24 ........... 8,604 7,770 7,693 7,769 8,670 –834 –77 901 –9.7 –1.0 11.6

25 to 54 ............. 40,357 49,882 53,439 54,568 56,435 9,525 3,557 1,866 23.6 7.1 3.4

25 to 34 ........... 17,793 19,495 16,635 17,596 19,069 1,702 –2,860 1,473 9.6 –14.7 8.4

35 to 44 ........... 12,781 18,347 19,946 19,829 18,244 5,566 1,599 –1,585 43.5 8.7 –8.0

45 to 54 ........... 9,784 12,040 16,858 17,143 19,122 2,256 4,818 1,978 23.1 40.0 11.5

55 and older ...... 9,019 8,561 10,995 11,293 16,356 –458 2,434 5,063 –5.1 28.4 44.8

55 to 64 ........... 7,174 6,551 8,486 8,750 12,714 –623 1,935 3,964 –8.7 29.5 45.3

65 and older .... 1,845 2,010 2,509 2,543 3,641 165 499 1,098 8.9 24.8 43.2

65 to 74 ......... 1,548 1,681 2,045 2,079 3,077 133 364 998 8.6 21.6 48.0

75 and older .. 297 329 464 464 564 32 135 100 10.8 41.1 21.6

..........................

Women, 16 years

and older ......... 47,755 58,141 66,481 67,363 77,017 10,386 8,340 9,654 21.7 14.3 14.3

16 to 24 ............. 11,533 10,096 10,806 10,727 11,916 –1,437 710 1,189 –12.5 7.0 11.1

16 to 19 ........... 4,056 3,345 3,797 3,716 3,845 –711 452 129 –17.5 13.5 3.5

20 to 24 ........... 7,477 6,750 7,009 7,011 8,070 –727 259 1,059 –9.7 3.8 15.1

25 to 54 ............. 30,149 41,547 46,426 47,152 50,431 11,398 4,879 3,279 37.8 11.7 7.0

25 to 34 ........... 13,393 15,875 14,196 14,600 16,337 2,482 –1,679 1,737 18.5 –10.6 11.9

35 to 44 ........... 9,651 15,552 17,052 17,098 16,189 5,901 1,500 –909 61.1 9.6 –5.3

45 to 54 ........... 7,105 10,120 15,178 15,454 17,905 3,015 5,058 2,451 42.4 50.0 15.9

55 and older ...... 6,073 6,499 9,250 9,485 14,671 426 2,751 5,186 7.0 42.3 54.7

55 to 64 ........... 4,888 5,035 7,377 7,558 11,902 147 2,342 4,344 3.0 46.5 57.5

65 and older .... 1,185 1,464 1,873 1,927 2,769 279 409 842 23.5 27.9 43.7

65 to 74 ......... 1,018 1,251 1,548 1,586 2,333 233 297 747 22.9 23.7 47.1

75 and older .. 167 213 325 340 436 46 112 96 27.5 52.4 28.1

White, 16 years

and older ......... 96,143 108,837 118,569 120,150 130,358 12,694 9,732 10,208 13.2 8.9 8.5

Men ................ 55,133 60,168 64,241 65,308 70,592 5,035 5,284 6,291 9.1 6.8 8.1

Women ........... 41,010 48,669 54,328 54,842 59,766 7,659 4,924 5,924 18.7 11.6 9.0

2000

census

weights

1990

census

weights

2002 Group

See footnotes at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 49

Total, 16 years and older ....... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5 1.1 1.1

16 to 24 .................................... 22.3 16.9 15.7 15.4 15.0 –1.3 .4 .9

16 to 19 .................................. 7.7 5.5 5.4 5.2 4.7 –1.8 .9 .1

20 to 24 .................................. 14.6 11.3 10.3 10.2 10.3 –1.0 .1 1.3

25 to 54 .................................... 64.0 71.4 70.1 70.2 65.9 2.6 .9 .5

25 to 34 .................................. 28.3 27.6 21.6 22.2 21.8 1.3 –1.4 1.0

35 to 44 .................................. 20.4 26.5 26.0 25.5 21.2 4.2 .9 –.7

45 to 54 .................................. 15.3 17.3 22.5 22.5 22.8 2.8 3.8 1.3

55 and older ............................. 13.7 11.8 14.2 14.3 19.1 .0 3.0 4.1

55 to 64 .................................. 10.9 9.0 11.1 11.3 15.2 –.4 3.2 4.2

65 and older ........................... 2.7 2.7 3.1 3.1 4.0 1.4 2.4 3.7

65 to 74 .................................. 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.5 3.3 1.3 2.1 4.0

75 and older ......................... .4 .4 .6 .6 .6 1.6 3.8 2.2

Men, 16 years and older ......... 56.7 54.6 53.4 53.5 52.5 1.1 .8 1.0

16 to 24 .................................... 11.9 9.0 8.2 8.0 7.7 –1.3 .1 .7

16 to 19 .................................. 4.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 –1.7 .5 –.2

20 to 24 .................................. 7.8 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.3 –1.0 –.1 1.1

25 to 54 .................................... 36.6 38.9 37.5 37.7 34.8 2.1 .7 .3

25 to 34 .................................. 16.1 15.2 11.7 12.1 11.8 .9 –1.6 .8

35 to 44 .................................. 11.6 14.3 14.0 13.7 11.2 3.7 .8 –.8

45 to 54 .................................. 8.9 9.4 11.8 11.8 11.8 2.1 3.4 1.1

55 and older ............................. 8.2 6.7 7.7 7.8 10.1 –.5 2.5 3.8

55 to 64 .................................. 6.5 5.1 6.0 6.0 7.8 –.9 2.6 3.8

65 and older ........................... 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 2.2 .9 2.2 3.7

65 to 74 .................................. 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.9 .8 2.0 4.0

75 and older ......................... .3 .3 .3 .3 .3 1.0 3.5 2.0

Women, 16 years and older .... 43.3 45.4 46.6 46.5 47.5 2.0 1.3 1.3

16 to 24 .................................... 10.5 7.9 7.6 7.4 7.3 –1.3 .7 1.1

16 to 19 .................................. 3.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.4 –1.9 1.3 .3

20 to 24 .................................. 6.8 5.3 4.9 4.8 5.0 –1.0 .4 1.4

25 to 54 .................................... 27.4 32.4 32.6 32.5 31.1 3.3 1.1 .7

25 to 34 .................................. 12.2 12.4 10.0 10.1 10.1 1.7 –1.1 1.1

35 to 44 .................................. 8.8 12.1 12.0 11.8 10.0 4.9 .9 –.5

45 to 54 .................................. 6.4 7.9 10.6 10.7 11.0 3.6 4.1 1.5

55 and older ............................. 5.5 5.1 6.5 6.5 9.0 .7 3.6 4.5

55 to 64 .................................. 4.4 3.9 5.2 5.2 7.3 .3 3.9 4.6

65 and older ........................... 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.1 2.5 3.7

65 to 74 .................................. .9 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.2 3.9

75 and older ......................... .2 .2 .2 .2 .3 2.5 4.3 2.5

White, 16 years and older ....... 87.2 85.0 83.2 82.9 80.3 1.2 .9 .8

Men......................................... 50.0 47.0 45.1 45.1 43.5 .9 .7 .8

Women ................................... 37.2 38.0 38.1 37.9 36.8 1.7 1.1 .9

Table 5. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent)

1982 1992 2012 2000 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 census

weights

1900

census

weights

2002

Group

See footnotes at end of table.
50 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

Black, 16 years

and older ............ 11,331 14,162 16,834 16,564 19,765 2,831 2,672 3,201 25.0 18.9 19.3

Men ................... 5,804 6,997 7,745 7,793 9,318 1,193 748 1,525 20.6 10.7 19.6

Women .............. 5,527 7,166 9,089 8,771 10,447 1,639 1,923 1,676 29.7 26.8 19.1

Asian, 16 years

and older ............ 2,770 5,109 7,130 5,949 8,971 2,339 2,021 3,022 84.4 39.6 50.8

Men ................... 1,513 2,800 3,839 3,215 4,941 1,287 1,039 1,726 85.1 37.1 53.7

Women .............. 1,257 2,309 3,291 2,734 4,030 1,052 982 1,296 83.7 42.5 47.4

All other groups,

16 years

and older ............ ... ... ... 2,200 3,175 ... ... 975 ... ... 44.3

Men ................... ... ... ... 1,189 1,732 ... ... 543 ... ... 45.7

Women .............. ... ... ... 1,011 1,443 ... ... 432 ... ... 42.7

.............................

Hispanic origin,

16 years

and older ............ 6,734 11,338 16,200 17,942 23,785 4,604 4,862 5,843 68.4 42.9 32.6

Men ................... 4,148 6,900 9,273 10,609 13,674 2,752 2,373 3,065 66.3 34.4 28.9

Women .............. 2,586 4,439 6,927 7,332 10,111 1,853 2,488 2,779 71.7 56.0 37.9

.............................

Other than Hispanic

origin, 16 years

and older ............ 103,470 116,767 126,334 126,921 138,484 13,297 9,567 11,562 12.9 8.2 9.1

Men ................... 58,302 63,064 66,779 66,891 71,577 4,762 3,715 4,686 8.2 5.9 7.0

Women .............. 45,169 53,702 59,555 60,031 66,906 8,533 5,853 6,875 18.9 10.9 11.5

.............................

White non-Hispanic,

16 years

 and older ........... 89,630 98,724 103,360 103,348 106,237 9,094 4,636 2,889 10.1 4.7 2.8

Men ................. 51,121 53,984 55,489 55,340 56,849 2,862 1,505 1,509 5.6 2.8 2.7

Women ............ 38,508 44,740 47,871 48,008 49,388 6,232 3,130 1,380 16.2 7.0 2.9

Age of baby

boomers ............. 18 to 36 28 to 46 38 to 56 38 to 56 48 to 66 ... ... ... ... ... ...

Table 5. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

 Level Change Percent change

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

Group

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

2002

1

See footnotes at end of table.

to be the same as it was during the previous 10 years. Each of

the major age groups—16 to 24 years, 25 to 54 years, and 65

years and older—is expected to maintain or modestly increase

its participation rate. The participation rate of 20-to-24-yearold women continues to increase and is expected to reach

75.1 percent in 2012. It is projected that the labor force participation rates of women 25 to 34 years, 35 to 44 years, and, in

particular, 45 to 54 years also will increase over the projection

period.

The 55-to-64 age group, consisting of members of the

baby-boom generation, is projected to have the next-greatest increase of a 5.4-percentage-point change in its labor force

participation rate.

Historical changes in the labor force size

This section examines changes in the size of the labor force

over two periods: 1982–92 and 1992–2002. Over the 1982–92

period, larger numbers of the younger baby-boom generation

entering the labor force resulted in a high annual labor force

growth rate of 1.5 percent. At 1.1 percent, annual labor force

growth over the 1992–2002 period was much slower. The labor force grew by nearly 18 million between 1982 and 1992

and by 14.4 million between 1992 and 2002. (See table 5.) The

men’s labor force grew by 12 percent over the 1982–92 period

and then by 8.7 percent between 1992 and 2002. Women increased their numbers in the labor force by 21.7 percent over

the 1982–92 period. This growth rate was reduced to 14.3

percent over the 1992–2002 period.

Age. Labor force changes by age over the 1982–92 period

were influenced by the baby boomers and the birth-dearth

group born in the late 1920s and early 1930s. The labor force
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 51

Black, 16 years

 and older ....................... 10.3 11.1 11.8 11.4 12.2 2.3 1.7 1.8

Men ............................... 5.3 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.7 1.9 1.0 1.8

Women ......................... 5.0 5.6 6.4 6.1 6.4 2.6 2.4 1.8

Asian, 16 years

and older ........................ 2.5 4.0 5.0 4.1 5.5 6.3 3.4 4.2

Men ............................... 1.4 2.2 2.7 2.2 3.0 6.3 3.2 4.4

 Women ........................ 1.1 1.8 2.3 1.9 2.5 6.3 3.6 4.0

All other groups,

16 years and older2 ........ ... ... ... 1.5 2.0 ... ... 3.7

Men ............................... ... ... ... .8 1.1 ... ... 3.8

Women ......................... ... ... ... .7 .9 ... ... 3.6

Hispanic origin,

16 years and older ........ 6.1 8.9 11.4 12.4 14.7 5.3 3.6 2.9

Men ............................. 3.8 5.4 6.5 7.3 8.4 5.2 3.0 2.6

Women ........................ 2.3 3.5 4.9 5.1 6.2 5.6 4.5 3.3

Other than Hispanic origin,

16 years and older ........ 93.9 91.1 88.6 87.6 85.3 1.2 .8 .9

Men .............................. 52.9 49.2 46.9 46.2 44.1 .8 .6 .7

Women ......................... 41.0 41.9 41.8 41.4 41.2 1.7 1.0 1.1

White non-Hispanic,

16 years and older ........ 81.3 77.1 72.5 71.3 65.5 1.0 .5 .3

Men .............................. 46.4 42.1 38.9 38.2 35.0 .5 .3 .3

Women ......................... 34.9 34.9 33.6 33.1 30.4 1.5 .7 .3

Table 5. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Percent distribution Annual growth rate (percent)

1982 1992 2012 1982–92 1992–2002 2002–12

2002

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

Group

2 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial

categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian

and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The

category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by BLS.

growth of the baby boomers during 1982–92 was affected by

both population growth and the rapid increases in women’s

labor force participation rates.

Between 1982 and 1992, the 25-to-54 age group grew by

more than 20.9 million. Those aged 25 to 34 increased by 4

million, those 35 to 44 by more than 11.5 million, and those 45

to 54 by more than 5 million. Over the 1992–2002 period, the

age group with the greatest change was those 45 to 54 years,

with 9.9 million workers.

The baby bust that followed the baby boom caused a drop

in the labor force of those aged 16 to 24 during the 1982–92

period and also of those aged 25 to 34 in 1992–2002. It is

projected that this segment of the labor force will again decrease (by 2.5 million) in the 2002–12 labor force.

Sex. Although population growth was similar for both sexes

during the 1982–92 and 1992–2002 periods, men’s labor force

participation rates declined while women’s increased. As a

result, the labor force growth of men was slower than that of

women in both the 1982–92 and 1992–2002 periods, whether

measured by numbers of persons or rates of change. The

population and labor force of post-baby-boom cohorts aged

16 to 24 years decreased for both men and women in the

1982–92 period. The labor force of young women aged 16 to

24 years dropped more than that for young men (12.5 percent,

compared with 11.9 percent).

In 1992, the baby-boom generation was in the 25-to-54-

year-old age group. The labor force of men in this age group

soared by 23.6 percent over the 1982 figure. Meanwhile, the

labor force of women in the same age group expanded even

more rapidly, by 37.8 percent. Overall, however, the labor force

growth of baby boomers during 1992 to 2002 was markedly

lower than in the 1982–92 period.

From 1982 to 1992, both the population and the labor force

1

1

 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the

“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent

the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category

with 2000 census weights.
52 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

participation of men between the ages of 55 and 64 years

decreased. Consequently, the labor force of men aged 55 to 64

dropped by 8.7 percent. During the same period, the population of women in the same age group dropped by 0.8 percent,

but because their participation rates increased by 4.7 percent,

their labor force population increased by 3.0 percent.

During 1992–2002, the men’s population grew nearly as

much as in the previous decade. Men’s participation rates

declined across all age groups, except those aged 55 and

older; as a result, the labor force of men continued to shrink.

Women continued to experience rising labor force participation for all age groups, and as a result, their labor force still

exhibited considerable growth.

Race and Hispanic origin. White non-Hispanics were the

largest group in the labor force in 1982 and 1992, accounting

for 81 percent and 77 percent of the total, respectively. This

group accounted for 71 percent of the total labor force in

2002. Hispanics increased their share from 8.9 percent in 1992

to 12.4 percent in 2002. Blacks’ share of the labor force increased

from 10.3 percent in 1982 to 11.1 percent in 2002. In 1982 and 1992,

the category of “Asians and others” had the smallest share of

the civilian noninstitutional population, but also had the fastest

labor force growth rate. As noted before, in Census 2000, the

Asians in “Asians and others” became a separate group named

“Asian only.” As a result, the new “All other” racial group now

includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pacific Islanders, and those identifying themselves as having a

multiple racial heritage. The category of “Asians and others”

was the fastest-growing racial group in the past, and that of

“Asian only” is expected to be in the future.

Projected changes in the labor force

During 2002–12, the various age, sex, racial, and ethnic groups

will experience different rates of change in their populations,

leading to significant changes in the composition of the labor

force. The total labor force is projected to grow by 1.1 percent

annually and reach 162.3 million in 2012.

Age. The youth labor force stood at 22.4 million in 2002 and

is projected to grow by 2 million, to 24.4 million, by 2012. The

increase is significantly more than that posted in the previous

decade. For the labor force aged 25 to 54 years, the projected

increase is 5.1 million, significantly less than the increase over

the 1992–2002 period. The labor force size of those aged 25 to

34 dropped by 4.5 million over the 1992–2002 period, but is

expected to increase by 3.2 million in the 2002–12 period. The

35-to-44-year age group, which increased by 3.0 million during the 1992–2002 period, is projected to drop by 2.5 million

from 2002 to 2012, an effect of the baby bust following the

baby-boom expansion. The 45-to-54-year age group, made up

of the younger members of the baby-boom generation, is expected to increase at a slower rate than earlier.

The labor force of workers 55 and older is anticipated to

grow by more than 10.2 million by 2012, the fastest growth

among all age groups. Within that group, the 55-to-64-yearolds are expected to add 8.3 million to the labor force.

Sex. The men’s labor force is projected to grow by 1.0 percent annually during 2002–12, while that of women is expected

to grow by 1.3 percent per year. Because of the differential

growth rates, women’s share of the labor force is projected to

increase from 46.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

Race and Hispanic origin. Hispanics are projected to grow

2.9 percent annually over the 2002–12 period and total about

24 million, or 14.7 percent of the labor force, in 2012.

 The new “Asian only” racial group is not directly comparable to the “Asian and other” group in terms of historical

data. The category of “Asians only” is expected to be the

fastest-growing segment of the labor force. As was noted

earlier, the data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and

other” racial category with 1990 census weights. The data for

2002 and 2012, by contrast, represent the “Asian only” racial

category with 2000 census weights.

The black labor force is projected to have an annual growth

rate of 1.8 percent from 2002 to 2012 and is expected to reach

19.8 million the latter year.

The white non-Hispanic group will grow at a meager 0.3

percent, but will still remain the most populous group in 2012.

The group’s labor force is anticipated to grow by 2.8 million

between 2002 and 2012, while its share is expected to drop

from 71.3 percent to 65.5 percent over the period.

Dynamics

From 2002 through 2012, the dynamics of labor force change

emerge from three distinct groups: entrants—those who will

be in the labor force in 2012, but who were not in it in 2002;

leavers—those who will exit the labor force after 2002 and

before 2012; and stayers—those who were in the labor force

in 2002 and will remain through 2012.10 To the extent that the

demographic composition of labor force entrants between

2002 and 2012 is different from the composition of those now

in the labor force, the 2012 labor force will be different from

today’s labor force. The labor force also will affected by the

demographic composition of those leaving it. Thus, the labor

force of 2012 may be regarded as consisting of the labor force

of 2002, plus the entrants, less the leavers.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that, between 2002

and 2012, 40.5 million workers will enter the labor force and 23

million will leave. (See table 6.) These figures compare with

33.5 million entrants and 19 million leavers over the 1992–2002
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 53

1990

census

weights

2000

census

weights

1992–2002 2002 2002—2012

1992 2012

2

 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial

categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian

and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The

category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by

BLS.

Total ............................ 128,105 33,527 19,098 109,007 142,534 144,863 40,461 23,055 121,808 162,269

Men........................... 69,964 17,183 11,095 58,869 76,052 77,500 20,539 12,788 64,712 85,252

Women ..................... 58,141 16,344 8,003 50,139 66,481 67,363 19,922 10,267 57,096 77,017

White .......................... 108,837 26,250 16,516 92,321 118,569 120,150 31,019 20,811 99,339 130,358

Men........................... 60,168 13,826 9,753 50,415 64,241 65,308 16,691 11,407 53,901 70,592

Women ..................... 48,669 12,423 6,763 41,906 54,328 54,842 14,327 9,403 45,439 59,766

Black .......................... 14,162 4,782 2,111 12,051 16,834 16,564 5,538 2,338 14,226 19,765

Men........................... 6,997 2,078 1,103 5,894 7,745 7,793 2,671 1,146 6,647 9,318

Women ..................... 7,165 2,704 1,008 6,157 9,089 8,771 2,868 1,192 7,579 10,447

Asian .......................... 5,106 2,538 516 4,593 7,130 5,949 1,783 1,771 4,178 8,971

Men........................... 2,800 1,291 252 2,548 3,839 3,215 853 997 2,218 4,941

Women ..................... 2,306 1,247 264 2,045 3,291 2,734 928 775 1,959 4,030

...................................

All other groups2 ........ ... ... ... ... ... 2,200 ... ... ... 3,175

Men........................... ... ... ... ... ... 1,189 ... ... ... 1,732

Women ..................... ... ... ... ... ... 1,011 ... ... ... 1,443

...................................

Hispanic origin ........... 11,338 6,029 1,170 10,168 16,200 17,941 7,866 2,022 15,919 23,785

Men........................... 6,900 3,214 843 6,057 9,273 10,609 4,335 1,270 9,339 13,674

Women ..................... 4,438 2,815 327 4,111 6,927 7,332 3,531 751 6,581 10,111

Other than Hispanic ... 116,767 27,499 17,928 98,839 126,334 126,922 32,595 21,034 105,889 138,484

Men........................... 63,064 13,970 10,252 52,812 66,779 66,891 16,204 11,518 55,374 71,577

Women ..................... 53,703 13,529 7,675 46,028 59,555 60,031 16,391 9,516 50,515 66,906

 Share (percent),

Total ............................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Men........................... 54.6 51.3 58.1 54.0 53.4 53.5 50.8 55.5 53.1 52.5

Women ..................... 45.4 48.7 41.9 46.0 46.6 46.5 49.2 44.5 46.9 47.5

...................................

 White ......................... 85.0 78.3 86.5 84.7 83.2 82.9 76.7 90.3 81.6 80.3

 Men ......................... 47.0 41.2 51.1 46.2 45.1 45.1 41.3 49.5 44.3 43.5

 Women .................... 38.0 37.1 35.4 38.4 38.1 37.9 35.4 40.8 37.3 36.8

Black .......................... 11.1 14.3 11.1 11.1 11.8 11.4 13.7 10.1 11.7 12.2

Men........................... 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 6.6 5.0 5.5 5.7

Women ..................... 5.6 8.1 5.3 5.6 6.4 6.1 7.1 5.2 6.2 6.4

Asian .......................... 4.0 7.6 2.7 4.2 5.0 4.1 4.4 7.7 3.4 5.5

Men........................... 2.2 3.9 1.3 2.3 2.7 2.2 2.1 4.3 1.8 3.0

Women ..................... 1.8 3.7 1.4 1.9 2.3 1.9 2.3 3.4 1.6 2.5

All other groups2 ........ ... ... ... .... ... 1.5 ... ... ... 2.0

Men........................... ... ... ... ... ... .8 ... ... ... 1.1

Women ..................... ... ... ... ... ... .7 ... ... ... .9

Hispanic origin ........... 8.9 18.0 6.1 9.3 11.4 12.4 19.4 8.8 13.1 14.7

Men........................... 5.4 9.6 4.4 5.6 6.5 7.3 10.7 5.5 7.7 8.4

Women ..................... 3.5 8.4 1.7 3.8 4.9 5.1 8.7 3.3 5.4 6.2

Other than Hispanic ... 91.1 82.0 93.9 90.7 88.6 87.6 80.6 91.2 86.9 85.3

Men........................... 49.2 41.7 53.7 48.4 46.9 46.2 40.0 50.0 45.5 44.1

Women ..................... 41.9 40.4 40.2 42.2 41.8 41.4 40.5 41.3 41.5 41.2

Table 6. Civilian labor force, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012, and entrants and leavers, 1992–2002 and projected

 2002–12

[Numbers in thousands]

 Group

Entrants Leavers Stayers Entrants Leavers Stayers

1

Number,

1 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the

“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent

the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category

with 2000 census weights.

16 years and older

16 years and older

1
54 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

1 The “Asian” racial group corresponds to the "Asian and other" racial group prior to Census 2000.

2

Table 7. Median ages of the labor force, by sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

 Group 1982 1992 2002 2012

Total, 16 years and older ........................... 34.6 36.6 40.0 41.4

 Men ......................................................... 35.1 36.7 39.9 41.2

 Women .................................................... 33.9 36.4 40.1 41.5

...................................................................

 White ...................................................... 34.8 36.8 40.4 42.2

 Black ...................................................... 33.3 34.9 38.0 39.1

 Asian ...................................................... 33.8 36.5 38.4 40.9

...................................................................

 Hispanic origin ........................................ 30.7 33.2 34.2 36.6

White non-Hispanic ................................ 35.2 37.7 41.4 43.2

period. Between 1992 and 2002, entrants were more likely to

be men. Leavers also were more likely to be men, because the

men’s labor force was, and is, older than the women’s. However, the difference in share exhibited for the 1992–2002 period is projected to narrow somewhat, resulting in an almost

equal share of women and men entering the labor force.

According to the BLS projections, by 2012, 20.5 million men

will have joined the 2002 men's labor force of 77.5 million, and

12.8 million men will have left the labor force, resulting in a

labor force of 85 million men in 2012. Similarly, nearly 20 million women are expected to enter the labor force over the

2002–12 period, while 10 million women are projected to leave.

The relatively smaller number of women leaving the labor

force will raise their share from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5

percent in 2012.

The largest share of the 2002 labor force—83 percent—

was made up of whites. More than 76 percent of the population expected to enter the labor force between 2002 and 2012

are projected to be whites, smaller than their 78.3-percent

share of entrants over the 1992–2002 period. These proportions also are smaller than whites’ share of the workforce,

reflecting the group’s lower population growth. As a result of

the 31 million whites entering the labor force and the 20.8

million leaving over the 2002–12 period, the share of whites in

the labor force is projected to be 80 percent in 2012—a drop of

4.7 percentage points from 1992. In the 1992–2002 period,

white men supplied the most entrants—41 percent. However,

they also supplied most of those leaving—50 percent.

The white labor force is projected to have an annual

growth rate of 0.8 percent, less than that of the overall labor

force. The slower growth reflects little migration of this demographic group to the United States and lower birthrates

in the past, compared with other population groups. This

combination results in relatively fewer labor force entrants

and relatively more labor force leavers—a reflection of the aging white male labor force. White women are projected to increase their participation more than any other group, but this

faster growth rate will not be enough to offset the slow growth of

their labor force of only 0.9 percent per year.

Blacks are projected to make up 12.2 percent of the labor

force, or a total of 19.8 million, in 2012. Blacks are expected to

add 5.5 million entrants to the labor force between 2002 and

2012—13.7 percent of all new entrants during the period and

less than the 14.3 percent that entered between 1992 and 2002.

With the 2.3 million blacks projected to leave the labor force

over the period, the group will increase in number, and by

2012, the black share of the labor force is expected to be 12.2

percent, up 1.1 percentage point from the 2002 figure. The

black labor force is anticipated to grow faster than the overall

labor force because of the higher-than-average population

growth of blacks resulting primarily from higher-than-average birthrates.

In 2002, Hispanics represented 12.4 percent of the labor

force, with nearly 18 million workers. Because of their higher

levels of migration, nearly 8 million Hispanics are projected to

enter the labor force during the 2002–12 period. Reflecting

their relatively young age composition, only 2 million Hispanics are expected to leave the labor force, so the number of

Hispanics in the labor force is projected to grow by more than

5.8 million. By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is anticipated to

reach 23.8 million, 4 million more than the black labor force.

The Hispanic share of the labor force is expected to grow

both because of overall population growth—from higher birth

levels and increased migration—and because of increases in

the participation rate of Hispanic women.

In 2002, the Asian labor force totaled 6 million. About 1.8

million members of this group are expected to enter the labor

force during the 2002–12 period, and a similar number are

1
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 55

Table 8. Distribution of the population and labor force by age and sex, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

Population Labor force

1982 1992 2002 2012 1982 1992 2002 2012

Total, 16 years and older ........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 .................................... 21.3 17.0 16.2 15.7 22.3 16.9 15.7 15.0

25 to 39 .................................... 31.2 32.8 27.5 25.1 39.5 41.5 34.6 31.8

40 and older ............................. 47.6 50.2 56.3 59.2 38.1 41.6 50.0 52.9

65 and older ........................... 14.7 15.7 15.4 16.7 2.3 2.3 2.5 3.3

75 and older ......................... 5.5 6.3 7.2 7.2 .4 .4 .6 .6

...................................................

Men, 16 years and older ........... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 .................................... 22.1 17.7 17.0 16.3 20.9 16.5 15.0 14.6

25 to 39 .................................... 32.1 33.7 28.2 25.8 39.9 41.8 35.2 32.7

40 and older ............................. 45.8 48.6 54.8 57.9 39.2 41.8 49.8 52.7

65 and older ........................... 12.7 13.5 13.6 15.0 3.0 2.9 3.3 4.3

75 and older ......................... 4.3 4.9 5.8 5.9 .5 .5 .6 .7

...................................................

Women, 16 years and older ...... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 .................................... 20.5 16.3 15.6 15.1 24.2 17.4 15.9 15.5

25 to 39 .................................... 30.4 32.0 26.8 24.5 39.1 41.2 36.1 31.2

40 and older ............................. 49.2 51.8 57.6 60.4 36.7 41.5 50.3 53.4

65 and older ........................... 16.5 17.6 17.3 18.3 2.5 2.5 2.9 3.6

75 and older ......................... 6.7 7.6 8.6 8.4 .3 .4 .5 .6

...................................................

Group

[In percent]

 projected to leave, so the group is expected to number nearly

9 million by 2012.

The aging labor force

Median age. Median age is one of the various ways by

which the age of the labor force can be measured. The median age of the labor force was at a peak level in 1962 at 40.5

years. As the baby-boom generation entered the labor force,

the median age of the labor force decreased steadily until

1980; since then, as the baby boomers have aged, so has the

labor force. With both the population and the labor force

aging, the median age of the labor force in 2012 is projected

to exceed the level reached in 1962. (See table 7.) The following tabulation gives median ages for the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force aged 16 years and older:

 1992 2002 2012

Population ............... 40.1 40.3 45.3

Labor force .............. 36.6 40.0 41.4

Difference ................ 3.5 .3 3.9

The median age of both groups is increasing, but the median

age of the population was increasing more than that of the labor

force between 1992 and 2002. Over the 2002–12 period, the

median age of the population is expected to rise by 5.0 years,

while the median age of the labor force is projected to increase

by 1.4 years. The median age of the labor force is less than that

of the population because the labor force participation rates of

older persons are much lower than the rates of young workers.

The growth of the older population, combined with the increase

in the group’s participation rates, resulted in the projected increase by 1.4 years in the median age of the 2012 labor force,

exceeding the highest level ever recorded, in 1962.

Historically, white non-Hispanic labor force participants have

been older than the rest of the labor force. This disparity is

projected to continue and reach 1.8 years in 2012. Compared

with whites, the black and Hispanic segments of the labor

force both are younger and have higher fertility rates. As a

result, young black and Hispanic workers—those between 16

and 24 years—are expected to increase the shares of their

respective labor forces. Black participants in the labor force

have been about 1.5 to 3.1 years younger than the overall

labor force—a gap that is projected to continue through 2012.

In 2002, the median age of Asian labor force participants was 1.6

years less than that of the overall labor force; the difference is

expected to decrease to 0.5 year by 2012. Hispanic participants

generally have been younger, due to their higher fertility rate.

Hispanics are projected to continue having a lower median

age than that of the overall labor force, but to age from a median

of 34.2 years in 2002 to 36.6 years in 2012, reflecting the aging of

earlier immigrants. The median ages of all racial and Hispanic

groups are expected to increase during the 2002–12 period.

Age composition. Another way to measure the age of the labor

force is by looking into its age structure. The labor force is getting older if the proportion of the 55-and-older or the 65-and-older
56 Monthly Labor Review February 2004

Labor Force Projections

age group in it is increasing or if the share of those under 25 is

decreasing. Table 8 presents such information for the population

and labor force aged 16 and older, by sex and age groups.

From 1982 to 2002, the proportion of those 65 and older in the

population increased. This proportion is expected to rise to

16.7 percent by 2012. The proportion of persons 16 to 24 years

in the labor force decreased over the 1982–2002 period and is

expected to decline further, to 15.7 percent by 2012. Accordingly, on the basis of both the median age and the age structure of the labor force, the population is getting older. Since 1992,

the proportion of 25-to-39-year-olds has decreased, and it is

expected to continue decreasing through 2012.

Looking at the composition of the population by sex, one

sees that the same general patterns hold. However, the male

population has proportionately more youths than the female

population, reflecting men’s higher proportion of births,

slightly higher current migration, and higher mortality. Relatively more women are in the older ages.

Economic dependency. The economic dependency ratio is

the number of persons in the total population (including the

Armed Forces overseas and children) who are not in the labor

force per 100 of those who are in the labor force. The following

tabulation shows the economic dependency ratio by age for

selected years from 1975 to 2002 and for 2012 (projected):

Total Under 16 to 64 65 years

 Year population 16 years years and older

1975 ........................ 126.3 61.4 44.2 20.7

1980 ........................ 108.9 50.7 37.4 20.8

1985 ........................ 103.3 47.3 34.2 21.8

1990 ........................ 98.3 45.8 30.5 22.1

1995 ........................ 96.6 48.6 25.7 22.3

2000 ........................ 95.4 45.3 25.9 21.9

2002 ........................ 91.7 43.6 26.9 21.2

2012 ........................ 85.0 38.9 25.9 20.1

For every 100 persons in the 2002 labor force, about 92 were

not. Of the 92, 44 were children, 27 were 16 to 64 years of

age, and 21 were 65 years and older.

In 1987, for the first time ever, more Americans were in the

 labor force than were not. This trend is expected to continue

throughout the entire projection period, with the estimated number of persons not working falling to 85 per 100 workers in 2012.

Over the last three decades, as the number of births diminished and the baby boomers moved to ages older than 16, the

economic dependency ratio dropped. Most of the 34-percentage-point drop for the total population between 1975 and 2002

stemmed from the decline in the number of births. The portion

of the ratio attributed to children is projected to continue

dropping, despite somewhat higher fertility. The remainder of

the historical drop is attributable to higher labor force participation among women aged 16 to 64 years. The ratio for this

group dropped 17.3 points, from 44.2 in 1975 to 26.9 in 2002.

The ratio is projected to continue decreasing and reach 25.9

in 2012.

The part of the dependency ratio that had been steadily

increasing is the portion attributable to older persons (those

65 years and older). In 1975, this was by far the smallest part

of the dependency ratio, and it is expected to still be the smallest proportion by 2012. However, between 1975 and 1990, the

older persons’ dependency ratio grew 1.4 percentage points.

It fell again in 2002, to 21.2 per 100, representing the entry of

the birth dearth of the 1930s into the 65-and-older group. The

dependency of this group is expected to decline further, to

20.1 in 2012.

THE LABOR FORCE IN 2012 IS EXPECTED TO BE OLDER AND

TO BECOME MORE DIVERSE. With the aging of the baby-boom

generation, the workforce is projected to grow older. The median age of the labor force is expected to rise; the projected age

of 41.4 for 2012 would exceed the highest level ever recorded.

Hispanics are anticipated to become the largest minority group

in the labor force, and women will likely continue to participate

more. The dependency ratio is projected to continue to decline

and is expected to reach 85 people not working per 100 people

working. Between 2002 and 2012, nearly 122 million workers are

expected to remain in the labor force, 40 million workers to enter,

and 23 million to leave. As a result, the labor force of 2012 would

be 162.3 million—up 17.4 million from the 2000 level. The increase

represents a continuation of the 1992–2002 growth rate. 

Notes

1

 The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed

persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces

personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Population Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

2 Projections of labor force participation rates for 136 age, sex,

race, and Hispanic-origin groups are developed by first estimating a

trend rate of change, usually based on participation rate behavior

during the previous 8-year period. Then the rate is modified whenever

the time-series projections for a given group appear inconsistent with

the results of cross-sectional and cohort analyses. This second step

ensures consistency in the projections across the various demographic

groups. For further information, see Handbook of Methods (Bureau of

Labor Statistics, 1999), Chapter 13, “Employment Projection”; on

the Internet at http://stats.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch13_a.htm.

3

 Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E.

Kallan, “Population Projections of the United States: 1999 to 2100:

Methodology and Assumptions,” working paper no. 38 (U.S. Depart-
Monthly Labor Review February 2004 57

ment of Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1999).

4

 More information on the change in racial categories is available

on the Census Bureau website, http://www.census.gov/Press-Release/www/2001/raceqandas.html.

5

 The CPS is a monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau for

the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The survey provides statistics on the

labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years

of age and older and is collected from a probability sample of approximately 60,000 households.

6

 For a discussion of theories of migration, see Douglass S. Massey,

Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J.

Edward Taylor, “Theories of International Migration: A Review and

Appraisal,” Population and Development Review, September 1993,

pp. 431–66.

7 See Alicia Munnell, Kevin E. Cahill, and Natalia A. Jivan, How

Has the Shift to 401ks Affected the Retirement Age? no. 13 (Boston,

 Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, September 2003).

8 Thomas P. Burke, “Social Security earnings limit removed” (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Compensation and Working Conditions, summer 2001).

9 Normal Retirement Age (Social Security Administration, Dec. 4,

2000); on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/retirement/nra.html

(last visited Feb. 4, 2004).

10 The numbers of entrants and leavers are computed by comparing

the labor force numbers for a given birth cohort at two points in time.

If the numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed

the entrants; if the numbers at the second point are smaller, the difference is the leavers. These concepts understate the numbers likely to

enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two

points in time, but are still a valid comparison. As with measures of

geographic mobility, which also do not measure all the changes over a

period, we do not call the two groups net entrants and leavers. For

a further discussion of the methods involved, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Measuring Rates of Labor Force Dynamics,” Proceedings

of the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical Association,

1993.