Monthly Labor Review • May 2010 23

Payroll Employment in 2010

John P. Eddlemon After falling by 8.8 million between an 

employment peak in January 2008 

and a trough in February 2010, nonfarm employment, as measured by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, 

increased by 1,014,000 in the last 10 months 

of the year.1

 (See chart 1.) The hiring and 

layoff of temporary, intermittent workers for 

the 2010 Census had a large impact on total 

nonfarm employment for much of the year. 

However, by November, the effect had been 

largely offset.2

 For the remainder of this article, “nonfarm employment” will refer to total 

nonfarm employment, excluding temporary, 

intermittent 2010 Census workers. Following job losses in January and February, nonfarm employment rose for the remainder of 

the year. Job growth was strongest in April 

and October, and job gains averaged 105,000 

per month after the employment trough in 

February. (See chart 2.)

Historically, CES employment growth has 

tended to lag the end of a recession. (See 

table 1.) The most recent recession lasted 

from December 2007 through June 2009, 

but employment continued to fall through 

February 2010.3

 The lag between the end of 

the business cycle and the trough in nonfarm employment was shorter than it was 

after the previous recession, but longer than 

the historical average. A comparison of 

growth 10 months after troughs in employment shows that the employment recovery 

Payroll employment 

turns the corner in 2010

Nonfarm payroll employment reached a low point

in February 2010, and modest job growth continued

throughout the rest of the year

John P. Eddlemon is an 

economist in the Division 

of Current Employment 

Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau 

of Labor Statistics. Email: 

eddlemon.john@bls.gov

which began in February 2010 was weaker 

than growth in previous recoveries. Through 

December 2010, employment increased 0.8 

percent from its low point. Over the past 

four employment recoveries, average employment growth from the low point was 

1.9 percent; only the employment recovery 

that began in May 1991 was weaker. (See 

chart 3.)

During 2010, job losses moderated in 

construction and financial activities, while 

manufacturing, retail trade, and leisure and 

hospitality began to add jobs. Job growth 

continued in education and health services 

and in professional and business services 

over the year. For most of the year, the diffusion index over a 1-month span indicated job growth across more than half of all 

industries in the private sector. This index 

measures the number of industries adding 

jobs compared with the number of industries losing jobs; a reading above 50 indicates that more industries are adding jobs 

than shedding them. The index registered 

58.6 in December 2010, up from 38.4 a year 

earlier and an improvement over a low point 

of 17.0 in March 2009.

Other indicators, hours, and earnings

The recovery in employment was consistent with other economic indicators. Gross 

domestic product grew throughout 2010, 
Payroll Employment in 2010

24 Monthly Labor Review • March 2011

with the strongest growth occurring in the first quarter.4

Corporate profits rose to record levels,5

 and the Conference Board’s indexes of coincident and leading economic 

indicators increased during the year.6

 Average weekly 

hours of production and nonsupervisory employees in 

manufacturing, a component of the Conference Board’s 

leading economic index, increased by 0.7 hour in 2010 

and is up by 1.9 hours since the most recent low point in 

140,000

135,000

130,000

125,000

120,000

115,000

110,000

105,000

140,000

135,000

130,000

125,000

120,000

115,000

110,000

105,000

Chart 1. Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, 1990–2010

Thousands Thousands

Note: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

 Chart 2. Over-the-month change in total nonfarm employment, excluding temporary, intermittent Census workers, seasonally adjusted, 2010 

Thousands Thousands

250

200

150

100

50

0

–50

–100

250

200

150

100

50

0

–50

–100

Average over-the-month change: 105,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 
Monthly Labor Review • March 2011 25

March 2009. Firms typically increase the hours of their 

current employees before hiring new workers, so average 

weekly hours traditionally have been seen as a leading 

indicator of economic activity. Temporary help services 

employment, traditionally a leading indicator of nonfarm 

job growth, reached a trough in August 2009—6 months 

before nonfarm employment reached its employment 

trough—and continued to grow in 2010. (See chart 4.) 

Firms tend to utilize temporary help services workers in 

times of economic uncertainty in order to manage fluctuations in labor demand that may not be sustained over 

a longer period.

In 2010, average weekly hours for all employees in the 

private sector increased by 0.3 hour, to 34.2 hours, up 0.5 

hour from a low in June 2009. The index of aggregate 

weekly hours7

 rose 2.0 percent in 2010, but in December 

2010 was 7.8 percentage points below the peak in June 

2007.

Average hourly earnings of all employees in the private 

sector increased by 38 cents, to $22.77, in 2010. Over the 

year, average hourly earnings for all employees rose by 1.7 

percent, while the index of aggregate weekly payrolls8

 for 

all employees increased by 4.0 percent. As of December 

2010, this index was 1.8 percent below its June 2008 high.

Job losses moderate

Construction employment fell by 149,000 in 2010, with 

most of the loss occurring in the first 2 months of the 

year. After February, employment losses averaged 4,000 

 –5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

Number of months after employment trough

Table 1. Business cycle troughs and total nonfarm employment troughs, 1973–2010

Business cycle Employment trough

Number of months 

from business cycle 

trough to employment trough

Net change in employment 10 months 

after employment 

trough

Percent change in 

employment 10 

months after employment trough

November 1973–March 1975....................................... April 1975 1 2,354 3.1

January 1980–November 19821

................................... December 1982 1 2,746 3.1

July 1990–March 1991..................................................... May 1991 2 100 .1

March 2001–November 2001........................................ August 2003 21 1,620 1.2

Average over past 4 cycles.............................................. 6 1,705 1.9

December 2007–June 2009............................................ February 2010 8 1,053 .8

1

 Combined January 1980–July 1980 and July 1981–November 1982 business cycles.

. . .

Index 

(employment trough

=100)

Chart 3. Total nonfarm employment indexed to employment troughs, seasonally adjusted, 1975–2010 

Index 

(employment trough

=100)

Indexed to February 2010

Indexed to August 2003

Indexed to May 1991

Indexed to December 1982

Indexed to April 1975

103.5

103.0

102.5

102.0

101.5

101.0

100.5

100.0

99.5

103.5

103.0

102.5

102.0

101.5

101.0

100.5

100.0

99.5

1975 trough

1982 trough

2003 trough

2010 trough

1991 trough
Payroll Employment in 2010

26 Monthly Labor Review • March 2011

per month, a significant improvement over average losses 

of 77,000 per month the previous 2 years. In 2010, residential construction was responsible for most of the job 

losses. Employment in nonresidential construction was 

volatile on a month-to-month basis and fell by 36,000 

over the year. (See chart 5.)

Although job losses in construction moderated during 2010, the housing market remained weak. Housing 

starts and permits9

 remained near historically low levels 

throughout the year, and new-home sales10 reached an alltime low in August. The National Association of Home 

Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index,11 

which measures builder confidence in the market for 

newly built single-family homes, stood at 16 in December 

2010, up slightly from a low of 8 in January 2009, but significantly below the recent peak of 72 in June 2005. 

Job losses in financial activities also moderated in 2010. 

The industry shed 65,000 jobs, compared with 316,000 

jobs lost in 2009. (See chart 6.) In 2010, insurance carriers 

and related activities lost 40,000 jobs and real estate lost 

16,000 jobs. Employment stabilized in credit intermediation and was essentially flat over the year. This industry includes firms, such as banks and mortgage companies, that 

lend or facilitate the lending of funds. Credit intermediation had shed 118,000 jobs in 2009, and the industry remained fragile in 2010 as the Federal Deposit Insurance 

Corporation (FDIC) seized a record 157 banks during the 

year—the highest yearly total of failed banks since the 

savings-and-loan crisis ended in 1992.12

Job losses end, gains begin

In 2010, manufacturing employment increased by 109,000, 

the largest 12-month gain since June 1997–98, when the 

industry added 221,000 jobs. (See chart 7.) During 2010, 

job growth was concentrated largely in fabricated metal 

products, machinery, and motor vehicles and parts. New 

orders13 and industrial production,14 both severely depressed during the 2007–09 recession, partially recovered 

in 2010, and many companies added new workers to their 

workforces. Production of autos and light trucks increased 

from 5.6 million units in 2009 to 7.6 million in 2010.15 

Job gains in manufacturing also became more widespread 

as 2010 passed. The diffusion index over a 1-month span 

was 37.7 at the end of 2009 and rose to 59.3 by the end of 

2010. The index had fallen as low as 6.8 in January 2009.

After reaching an employment low in December 2009, 

retail trade added 99,000 jobs in 2010. The industry had 

shed 1.2 million jobs between December 2007 and December 2009. (See chart 8.)

Employment growth in retail trade was spurred by gains 

in retails sales,16 which increased by $24.7 billion, or 7.8 

150,000

145,000

140,000

135,000

130,000

125,000

120,000

115,000

110,000

105,000

100,000 

3,000

2,800

2,600

2,400

2,200

2,000

1,800

1,600

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

Temporary

help services

employment

(thousands) 

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

Total nonfarm

Temporary help services

 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 

Chart 4. Total nonfarm employment and temporary help services employment, seasonally adjusted,1990–2010

Total 

nonfarm 

employment

(thousands) 
Monthly Labor Review • March 2011 27

percent, in 2010. The $24.7 billion figure included a substantial increase in new-vehicle sales, with more than 1 

million more new vehicles sold in 2010 than in 2009. Sales 

of trucks either matched or exceeded car sales from May 

through December.17 Auto sales grew despite a 34-centper-gallon increase in the price of gas.18 Consumer confiResidential construction

Nonresidential construction

 Chart 5. Over-the-month change in employment in residential and nonresidential construction, seasonally adjusted, 2010 

Thousands Thousands

50

40

30

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

–50

–60

 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

50

40

30

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

–50

–60

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

–50

–60

–70

20

10

0

–10

–20

–30

–40

–50

–60

–70

Chart 6. Over-the-month change in employment in financial activities, seasonally adjusted, December 2007– December 2010

Thousands Thousands

 Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

 2007 2008 2009 2010
Payroll Employment in 2010

28 Monthly Labor Review • March 2011

dence was up 9.8 points over the year, although individual 

months showed varying degrees of volatility.19

In 2010, employment gains in retail trade were concentrated in clothing and accessories stores, general 

merchandise stores, and motor vehicle and parts dealers. 

Some industries within retail trade experienced minor job 

losses over the year. The largest employment decline was 

in building material and garden supply stores, reflecting 

continued weakness in residential construction.

Leisure and hospitality reached an employment low 

Chart 8. Over-the-month change in employment in retail trade, seasonally adjusted, December 2007– December 2010

40

20

0

–20

–40

–60

–80

–100

–120

–140

Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec

2007 2008 2009 2010 

Thousands Thousands

40

20

0

–20

–40

–60

–80

–100

–120

–140

 Chart 7. Manufacturing employment, seasonally adjusted, 1997–2010

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

9,000

8,000

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 

Thousands Thousands

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Monthly Labor Review • March 2011 29

Chart 9. Education and health services employment, seasonally adjusted,1990–2010

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

20,000

19,000

18,000

17,000

16,000

15,000

14,000

13,000

12,000

11,000

10,000

Thousands Thousands

 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 

in January 2010 and added 143,000 jobs by the end of 

the year. The industry had lost 325,000 jobs in 2009 

and 281,000 jobs in 2008. About 80 percent of the job 

gains during 2010 occurred in food services and drinking 

places, with the remaining 20 percent split between the 

accommodation subsector and arts, entertainment, and 

recreation.

After losing 223,000 workers between March 2008 and 

February 2010, “other services”—repair services, personal 

and laundry services, and membership organizations—

added 99,000 workers by the end of 2010. Membership 

associations and organizations accounted for about 80 

percent of the jobs added during the year.

Job growth continues

Private education and health services continued to add 

jobs in 2010. The industry traditionally has added jobs 

regardless of the economic cycle, and that trend continued throughout the most recent downturn.20 (See chart 

9.) Monthly employment gains in education and health 

services averaged 34,000 in 2010, the same as the average 

monthly gain during the previous 2 years. Health care and 

social assistance accounted for more than 80 percent of 

the jobs added in 2010.

Professional and business services added 420,000 jobs in 

2010, with job gains concentrated in temporary help services. As mentioned earlier, employment trends in temporary help services are a leading indicator of labor demand. 

Employment in the industry reached a peak in December 

2007, a month before total nonfarm employment peaked; 

employment in the industry reached a trough in August 

2009, 6 months before total nonfarm employment reached 

its low. (See chart 4.) Between August 2009 and December 2010, temporary help services added 462,000 jobs.

Government

Government employment fell by 233,000 in 2010. The 

hiring and layoff of temporary, intermittent workers for 

the 2010 census contributed to large swings in Federal 

Government employment during the year, but the net effect for the calendar year was negligible. Job losses continued in the U.S. Postal Service as employment fell by 

19,000. Since reaching an employment peak in April 

1999, the Postal Service has shed 266,000 jobs. Excluding impacts attributable to hiring for the census and to 

Postal Service losses, Federal Government employment 

increased by 50,000 in 2010. State government employment was essentially flat in 2010, with job growth in eduNOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
Payroll Employment in 2010

30 Monthly Labor Review • March 2011

cation offsetting losses elsewhere. 

Local government, which accounts for more than half 

of all government employment, drove the employment 

decline in government, shedding 239,000 jobs over the 

year. Local government employment grew during the first 

part of the recession, reaching a peak in September 2008. 

(See chart 10.) Tax revenues are sensitive to the business 

cycle,21 and severe declines in tax revenues following the 

Chart 10. Local government employment indexed to beginnings of recessions, seasonally adjusted, 1981–2007

2001 recession 1990 recession

1981 recession

2007 recession

Indexed to July 1981

Indexed to July 1990

Indexed to March 2001

Indexed to December 2007

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97

106

105

104

103

102

101

100

99

98

97

Index

(start of recession

=100)

Index

(start of recession

=100)

–5 –4 –3 –2 –1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36

Number of months after recession peak 

NOTE: Business cycle peaks are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

1

 Industry continued to lose jobs and did not reach an employment 

trough corresponding to the most recent business cycle.

2

 Industry continued to add jobs and did not reach an employment trough 

corresponding to the most recent business cycle.

Table 2. Most recent industry-specific employment trough and employment change from trough to December 2010

Industry Most recent trough

December 2010 employment minus employment 

at trough (thousands)

Number of months by which 

industry trough led total 

nonfarm trough

Total nonfarm, excluding workers on 2010 Census..... February 2010 1,053

Mining and logging.......................................................................... October 2009 73 4

Construction........................................................................................ (

1

) ... ...

Manufacturing.................................................................................... December 2009 109 2

Durable goods................................................................................ December 2009 142 2

Nondurable goods........................................................................ (

1

) ... ...

Wholesale trade.................................................................................. February 2010 36 0

Retail trade............................................................................................ December 2009 99 2

Transportation and warehousing................................................. February 2010 125 0

Utilities.................................................................................................... (

1

) ... ...

Information........................................................................................... (

1

) ... ...

Financial activities.............................................................................. (

1

) ... ...

Professional and business services............................................... September 2009 519 5

Temporary help services............................................................ August 2009 462 6

Education and health services....................................................... (

2

) ... ...

Leisure and hospitality...................................................................... January 2010 143 1

Other services...................................................................................... February 2010 101 0

Government.......................................................................................... (

2

) ... ...
Monthly Labor Review • March 2011 31

most recent recession took a heavy toll on local governments. Some local governments cut employment after exhausting measures such as furloughs, pay freezes, cuts in 

service, and larger classroom sizes. Since peaking in September 2008, local governments have shed 352,000 jobs, 

and 68 percent of those losses occurred in 2010. The decline in local government employment in 2010 was split 

equally between the education and noneducation components of local government.

FOLLOWING LOSSES IN THE FIRST 2 MONTHS of the 

year, nonfarm payroll employment began to recover and 

added jobs at a rate that was low by historical standards 

for the final 10 months of 2010. Construction and financial activities continued to lose jobs, but at a slower 

rate, while manufacturing, retail trade, leisure and hospitality, and other services began to add jobs. Employment in manufacturing and retail trade reached lows 2 

months before total nonfarm employment, while mining 

and logging employment led total nonfarm employment 

by 4 months. (See table 2.) Education and health services 

and professional and business services added jobs prior to 

the start of the year and continued that trend throughout 2010. Employment trends in temporary help services 

continued to be a leading indicator of overall employment 

as the industry reached an employment trough 6 months 

before the trough in nonfarm payroll employment. At the 

end of 2010, nonfarm employment remained 7.8 million below its peak level in January 2008. However, the 

overall employment picture began to improve during the 

year, and this development was noteworthy after 2 years of 

substantial job losses.

Notes

1

 The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program is a monthly 

survey of about 140,000 businesses and government agencies representing approximately 440,000 individual worksites. For more information on the program’s concepts and methodology, see “Technical 

Notes to Establishment Data Published in Employment and Earnings” (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Mar. 4, 2011), on the Internet 

at www.bls.gov/web/empsit.supp.toc.htm#technote (visited Jan. 11, 

2011). To access CES data, see “Current Employment Statistics – CES

(National)” (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, no date), on the Internet 

at www.bls.gov/ces (visited Jan. 11, 2011). The CES data used in this 

article are seasonally adjusted unless otherwise noted.

2

 For an overview of the impact of census workers on nonfarm employment in 2010, see Emily Richards, “The 2010 Census: the employment impact of counting the Nation,” this issue, pp. 33–38.

3

 Recessions are identified by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), according to which the most recent recession began 

in December 2007 and ended in June 2009. The previous two recessions were from March 2001 to November 2001 and from July 1990 

to March 1991. For a complete list of business cycle dates, see “U.S. 

Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions” (Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic Research, Sept. 20, 2010), on the Internet 

at www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

 4 To access GDP data, see “National Economic Accounts” (Bureau of 

Economic Analysis, Feb. 25, 2011), on the Internet at www.bea.gov/

national/index.htm#gdp (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

5

 To access corporate profit data, see “National Economic Accounts” 

(Bureau of Economic Analysis, no date), on the Internet at www.bea.

gov/national (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

6 The Conference Board is a global, independent business membership 

and research association. To access the Board’s coincident and leading index data, see “Global Business Cycle Indicators” (New York, The Conference Board, updated at least daily), on the Internet at www.conferenceboard.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1 (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

7

 Aggregate weekly hours are the product of employment and average weekly hours. The index is calculated by dividing this aggregate by 

aggregate weekly hours for 2007.

8

 Aggregate weekly payrolls are the product of employment, aggregate weekly hours, and average hourly earnings. The index is calculated 

by dividing aggregate weekly payrolls by annual-average aggregate 

payrolls for 2007.

9

 To access data on new residential construction (housing starts and 

building permits), see “New Residential Construction Building Permits, 

Housing Starts, and Housing Completions” (U.S. Census Bureau, no date), 

on the Internet at www.census.gov/const/www/newresconstindex.html

(visited Mar. 11, 2011).

10 To access data on new-home sales, see “New Residential Sales” 

(U.S. Census Bureau, no date), on the Internet at www.census.gov/

const/www/newressalesindex.html (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

11 To access data on the Housing Market Index, see “NAHB/Wells 

Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI)” (Washington, DC, National Association of Home Builders, 2011), on the Internet at www.nahb.org/

reference_list.aspx?sectionID=134 (visited Mar. 11, 2011). The index 

is based on a survey that has been mailed to a panel of NAHB builder 

members every month since January 1985. The survey asks builders to 

rate housing market conditions on the basis of their experiences. About 

400 responses are obtained each month. With their experience and 

close contact with local market conditions, builders provide timely information about current housing market conditions, as well as information on how home sales are likely to behave in the future. The Housing 

Market Index is a weighted average of responses to survey questions 

asking builders to rate three aspects of their local market conditions: 

current sales of single-family detached new homes, expected sales of 

single-family detached new homes over the next 6 months, and traffic 

of prospective buyers in new homes. The NAHB survey asks builders 

to rate sales and sales expectations as “good,” “fair,” or “poor.” Builders 

also rate traffic of prospective buyers as “high to very high,” “average,” 

or “low to very low.” If all respondents answer “good” or “high,” then 

the index is 100. If all answer “poor” or “low,” then the index is 0. If the 

number of respondents who answer “good” or “high” and the number 

of respondents who answer “poor or “low” are equal, the index is 50. 

Any number greater than 50 indicates that more builders view sales 
Payroll Employment in 2010

32 Monthly Labor Review • March 2011

conditions as good than poor, and any number less than 50 indicates 

that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

12 For information on the FDIC failed bank count for 2010, see 

“Bank Failures in Brief ”(Washington, DC, Federal Deposit Insurance 

Corporation, Jan. 4, 2011), on the Internet at www.fdic.gov/bank/

historical/bank/2010/index.html (visited Mar. 11, 2011). For the full 

list of failed banks, see “Failed Bank List” (Washington, DC, Federal 

Deposit Insurance Corporation, Mar. 7, 2011), on the Internet at 

www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html (visited Mar. 

11, 2011).

13 See “Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders” (U.S. 

Census Bureau, Feb. 24, 2011), on the Internet at www.census.gov/

manufacturing/m3 (visited Mar. 11, 2011). 

14 See “Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization,” Federal 

Reserve Statistical Release G.17 (U.S. Federal Reserve, Feb. 16, 2011), 

on the Internet at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/Current/

default.htm. (visited Mar. 11, 2011).Industrial production data appear in an untitled table on the Internet at www.federalreserve.gov/

releases/G17/ipdisk/ip_sa.txt (visited Mar. 24, 2011).

15 Ibid. and author’s calculations from an untitled table on the Internet at www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/ipdisk/auto_sa.txt

(visited Mar. 24, 2011). 

16 To access retail sales data, see “Monthly & Annual Retail Trade” 

(U.S. Census Bureau, Jan. 28, 2011), on the Internet at www.census.

gov/retail (visited Mar. 11, 2011).

17 To access new-vehicle sales data, see “Motor Intelligence® Information” (Woodcliff Lake, NJ, Autodata Corp., no date), on the Internet at www.motorintelligence.com/m_frameset.html (visited Mar. 

11, 2011).

18 To access gas price data, see “Retail Gasoline Historical Prices” 

(U.S. Department of Energy, no date), on the Internet at www.eia.doe.

gov/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/wrgp/mogas_history.

html (visited Mar. 11, 2011). The 34-cent change in gas prices is the 

difference in price from the December 2009 reference week to the 

December 2010 reference week.

19 To access data on consumer confidence, see “Consumer Data” 

(New York, The Conference Board, no date), on the Internet at 

www.conference-board.org/data/consumerdata.cfm (visited Mar. 

11, 2011).

20 For an overview of health care employment trends during the 

2007–09 recession, see Catherine A. Wood, “Employment in health 

care: a crutch for the ailing economy,” Monthly Labor Review, forthcoming, April 2011.

21 See “How State Tax Policy Responds to Economic Recessions” 

(Washington, DC, National Conference of State Legislatures, 

Jan. 5, 2011), on the Internet at www.ncsl.org/documents/fiscal/

TaxPolicyandRecessions.pdf (visited Mar. 11, 2011), especially p. 7.