Monthly Labor Review September 1997 5

For the 1984–95 period, the Bureau

of Labor Statistics correctly identified the most significant labor

force trends. In terms of the direction of

change in labor force participation rates,

the most significant errors were in the

cases of very young workers and older

workers. These errors, however, had a

small impact on the projection error for

the total labor force because of the relatively small number of workers in the

two age groups.

Levels

The projection of the total civilian labor

force, 129.2 million, was 3.1 million

lower than the actual 1995 labor force of

132.3 million, an error of 2.8 percent.1

(See table 1.) The Bureau correctly projected the slowing rate of labor force

growth for the 1984–95 period, compared

with the previous 11 years. The 27-percent increase from 1973 to 1984 was projected to slow to 13.8 percent from 1984

to 1995, but the actual slowing was somewhat less, as the actual growth was 16.5

percent. That the projected rate of growth

was lower than the actual rate reflects offsetting errors in the population projections

prepared by the Bureau of the Census and

the labor force participation rates for specific age, sex, and racial groups that were

prepared by the BLS.

The labor force for both men and

women was projected too low, with twothirds of the error accounted for by men.

White men over the age of 60 were

underprojected by more than 1 million,

or nearly half of the 2.1 million error for

men, although they accounted for less

than 6 percent of the labor force in 1995.

Black and other men were underprojected at every age group, except for those

45 to 49 years. Young men from 20 to 24

also were underprojected, by 549,000,

roughly 26 percent of the error; they were

only 10.3 percent of the labor force in

1995. The projections for black and other

women were highly accurate, except for

those older than 70 and those under 24

years of age. White women older than 45

were significantly underprojected, in contrast to white women 20 to 39 years, who

were overprojected.

The projection error was 1.9 percent

for whites and 8.4 percent for blacks and

others. The latter group was underprojected by 1.3 million, roughly 40 percent

of the total error, although it accounted

for only 15 percent of the labor force in

1995. For these workers, 22 of the 26

age and sex groups for which projections

were developed were underprojected.

Population underprojections, probably

chiefly of Asians, who make up a large

part of the “other” group, are largely responsible for this error. Except for the

underprojection of older and younger

workers, the individual age and sex

group projections for whites were more

evenly split between under- and overprojections.

Despite the relatively large projection

Evaluating the 1995

labor force projections

More accurate projections of population, shorter

projection periods, and reduced labor force

growth made BLS labor force projections

to 1995 marginally better than those to 1990

errors for some groups, the projected

distribution of the labor force in 1995

by age, sex, and race was very close to

the actual distribution. As might be expected from the foregoing discussion,

the projected share for blacks (14.8 percent) was lower than their actual share

(15.4 percent), but nevertheless fairly

accurate when viewed by separate age

and sex groups.

Labor force participation

The Bureau’s major input to the 1995

labor force projections was the projection of labor force participation rates for

specific age, sex, and racial groups,

which rates were then applied to population projections developed by the Bureau of the Census. The accuracy of the

overall projection of labor force participation, 66.6 percent, reflects several offsetting errors for age, sex, and racial

groups. Definite patterns are revealed by

the errors for the age groups 16 to 24

(youth), 25 to 59 (prime-age workers),

and 60 and older (older workers) for

men and women in each of the two racial groups for which projections were

evaluated, namely, “whites” and “blacks

and others.”

The direction of change was projected

correctly for all age, sex, and racial subgroups in the prime-age group, except 25-

to-29-year-old white men and 40-to-44-

year-old black men. Participation rates

for both of these were projected to remain unchanged, and both declined. The

rates for all other age subgroups of primeage men, in both racial groups, were projected to decline, and all did. In almost

all of the groups, however, the projected

rate of decline was less than what actually occurred. The largest error was the

result of greater-than-projected declines

in the labor force participation of black

and other males 35 to 49 years of age.

(See table 2.)

For prime-age women, participation

rates for all age subgroups, both for

whites and for blacks and others, were

correctly projected to increase. For

H ow ard N Fullerton, Jr.
6 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Civilian labor force, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Total ......................................... 113,544 129,168 132,304 13.8 16.5 –3,136 –2.8 100.0 100.0

Men, 16 and older ........................... 63,835 69,282 71,360 8.5 11.8 –2,078 –3.3 53.6 53.9

Women, 16 and older ...................... 49,709 59,886 60,944 20.5 22.6 –1,058 –2.1 46.4 46.1

White ............................................... 98,492 110,086 111,950 11.8 13.7 –1,864 –1.9 85.2 84.6

Men .............................................. 56,062 59,894 61,146 6.8 9.1 –1,252 –2.2 46.4 46.2

16 and 17 years ........................ 1,420 1,374 1,429 –3.2 .7 –55 –3.9 1.1 1.1

18 and 19 years ........................ 2,189 1,904 1,998 –13.0 –8.7 –94 –4.3 1.5 1.5

20 to 24 years ........................... 7,370 5,773 6,096 –21.7 –17.3 –323 –4.4 4.5 4.6

25 to 29 years ........................... 8,315 7,074 7,224 –14.9 –13.1 –150 –1.8 5.5 5.5

30 to 34 years ........................... 7,721 8,390 8,445 8.7 9.4 –55 –.7 6.5 6.4

35 to 39 years ........................... 6,842 8,635 8,587 26.2 25.5 48 .7 6.7 6.5

40 to 44 years ........................... 5,506 7,880 7,827 43.1 42.2 53 1.0 6.1 5.9

45 to 49 years ........................... 4,518 6,920 6,740 53.2 49.2 180 4.0 5.4 5.1

50 to 54 years ........................... 4,165 5,163 4,991 24.0 19.8 172 4.1 4.0 3.8

55 to 59 years ........................... 3,880 3,605 3,589 –7.1 –7.5 16 .4 2.8 2.7

60 to 64 years ........................... 2,530 1,873 2,220 –26.0 –12.3 –347 –13.7 1.5 1.7

65 to 69 years ........................... 900 647 1,074 –28.1 19.4 –427 –47.5 .5 .8

70 years and older .................... 705 656 926 –7.0 31.3 –270 –38.3 .5 .7

Women ......................................... 42,431 50,192 50,804 18.3 19.7 –612 –1.4 38.9 38.4

16 and 17 years ........................ 1,300 1,201 1,320 –7.6 1.5 –119 –9.2 .9 1.0

18 and 19 years ........................ 2,043 1,668 1,798 –18.4 –12.0 –130 –6.4 1.3 1.4

20 to 24 years ........................... 6,363 5,306 5,170 –16.6 –18.7 136 2.1 4.1 3.9

25 to 29 years ........................... 6,297 6,136 5,890 –2.6 –6.5 246 3.9 4.8 4.5

30 to 34 years ........................... 5,624 7,166 6,766 27.4 20.3 400 7.1 5.5 5.1

35 to 39 years ........................... 5,101 7,439 7,024 45.8 37.7 415 8.1 5.8 5.3

40 to 44 years ........................... 4,139 6,679 6,674 61.4 61.2 5 .1 5.2 5.0

45 to 49 years ........................... 3,302 5,646 5,856 71.0 77.3 –210 –6.4 4.4 4.4

50 to 54 years ........................... 2,915 4,024 4,218 38.0 44.7 –194 –6.6 3.1 3.2

55 to 59 years ........................... 2,593 2,525 2,908 –2.6 12.2 –383 –14.8 2.0 2.2

60 to 64 years ........................... 1,699 1,460 1,714 –14.1 .9 –254 –14.9 1.1 1.3

65 to 69 years ........................... 631 563 837 –10.8 32.6 –274 –43.4 .4 .6

70 years and older .................... 423 379 629 –10.4 48.8 –250 –59.2 .3 .5

Black and other ............................... 15,082 19,082 20,354 26.5 35.0 –1,272 –8.4 14.8 15.4

Men .............................................. 7,803 9,388 10,215 20.3 30.9 –827 –10.6 7.3 7.7

16 and 17 years ........................ 171 171 239 .0 39.8 –68 –39.8 .1 .2

18 and 19 years ........................ 353 301 370 –14.7 4.8 –69 –19.5 .2 .3

20 to 24 years ........................... 1,224 1,017 1,243 –16.9 1.5 –226 –18.4 .8 .9

25 to 29 years ........................... 1,285 1,265 1,428 –1.6 11.1 –163 –12.7 1.0 1.1

30 to 34 years ........................... 1,168 1,518 1,573 30.0 34.6 –55 –4.7 1.2 1.2

35 to 39 years ........................... 955 1,468 1,497 53.7 56.8 –29 –3.1 1.1 1.1

40 to 44 years ........................... 734 1,249 1,277 70.2 74.0 –28 –3.9 1.0 1.0

45 to 49 years ........................... 596 975 932 63.6 56.4 43 7.1 .8 .7

50 to 54 years ........................... 497 663 759 33.4 52.6 –96 –19.2 .5 .6

55 to 59 years ........................... 386 412 427 6.7 10.6 –15 –3.9 .3 .3

60 to 64 years ........................... 253 229 268 –9.5 6.0 –39 –15.5 .2 .2

65 to 69 years ........................... 83 71 124 –14.5 49.2 –53 –63.7 .1 .1

70 years and older .................... 98 49 77 –50.0 –21.2 –28 –28.8 .0 .1

Women ......................................... 7,279 9,694 10,140 33.2 39.3 –446 –6.1 7.5 7.7

16 and 17 years ........................ 158 167 237 5.7 49.8 –70 –44.1 .1 .2

18 and 19 years ........................ 308 271 374 –12.0 21.4 –103 –33.4 .2 .3

20 to 24 years ........................... 1,088 1,010 1,179 –7.2 8.4 –169 –15.6 .8 .9

25 to 29 years ........................... 1,198 1,304 1,369 8.8 14.3 –65 –5.5 1.0 1.0

30 to 34 years ........................... 1,115 1,562 1,502 40.1 34.7 60 5.4 1.2 1.1

35 to 39 years ........................... 932 1,513 1,545 62.3 65.8 –32 –3.4 1.2 1.2

40 to 44 years ........................... 724 1,312 1,320 81.2 82.3 –8 –1.1 1.0 1.0

45 to 49 years ........................... 558 1,044 997 87.1 78.7 47 8.4 .8 .8

50 to 54 years ........................... 455 694 731 52.5 60.6 –37 –8.1 .5 .6

55 to 59 years ........................... 382 449 485 17.5 26.8 –36 –9.3 .3 .4

60 to 64 years ........................... 237 261 249 10.1 5.0 12 5.1 .2 .2

65 to 69 years ........................... 74 75 82 1.4 10.5 –7 –9.2 .1 .1

70 years and older .................... 50 32 70 –36.0 40.8 –38 –76.8 .0 .1

NOTE: Dash indicates data not available.

Share of labor force,

1995

Table 1.

Labor force group 1984

1995

Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495 Numerical

error

(projected

minus

actual)

Percent

error
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 7

white women, the projections were too

high for those aged 25 to 44 and too low

for those 45 to 59. For black and other

women, the projected rates for all the

prime-age groups were too high, except

those 55 to 59.

For youths 16 to 17, participation

rates for all sex and racial groups were

correctly projected to increase. For age

groups 18 to 19 and 20 to 24, the projected direction of change was not the

same for every sex and racial group, and

the actual direction of change was not

consistent for each age group. The patterns of labor force change for these

groups are very difficult to discern and,

consequently, difficult to project. Several large errors for young workers can

be seen in table 2 for specific age, sex,

and racial groups.

The projections of labor force participation rates for older workers generally

had the largest percent errors, in part because the rates for these workers are

relatively small, and small percentagepoint errors result in a large percent error. It is also apparent that some of the

observed error is due to the redesign of

the Current Population Survey (CPS) in

1994, which resulted in a greater proportion of older persons being enumerated as labor force participants. Based

on trends at the time the projections were

developed, participation rates for all age

groups over 60 years were projected to

decline. In general, the direction of

change for those 60 to 64 years of age

was correctly projected in all sex and

racial groups, except white women.

Most of the other age, sex, and racial

groups, however, showed increasing

participation (see table 2), but some

groups may have shown an increase

only because of the CPS redesign.

Population

The Bureau of the Census underprojected

the civilian noninstitutional population

by 4.8 million. (See table 3.) The percent

error was large for both black and other

men and black and other women. These

two groups represented only 7.3 percent

Civilian labor force participation rate, 1984 actual and 1995 projected

[Numbers in thousands]

Total ....................... 64.4 66.6 66.6 2.2 2.2 0.0 0.0

Men, 16 and older ......... 76.4 75.3 75.0 –1.1 –1.4 .3 .4

Women, 16 and older .... 53.6 58.9 58.9 5.3 5.4 .0 –.1

White ............................. 64.6 66.8 67.1 2.2 2.4 –.3 –.4

Men ............................ 77.1 75.8 75.7 –1.3 –1.4 .1 .1

16 and 17 years ...... 47.0 49.3 47.7 2.3 .7 1.6 3.3

18 and 19 years ...... 70.7 75.6 69.9 4.9 –.9 5.7 8.2

20 to 24 years ......... 86.5 89.5 85.1 3.0 –1.4 4.4 5.2

25 to 29 years ......... 94.8 94.9 93.6 .1 –1.2 1.3 1.4

30 to 34 years ......... 96.0 95.6 94.5 –.4 –1.5 1.1 1.1

35 to 39 years ......... 96.3 95.3 93.7 –1.0 –2.6 1.6 1.7

40 to 44 years ......... 95.7 94.7 93.2 –1.0 –2.6 1.5 1.6

45 to 49 years ......... 94.1 92.7 91.8 –1.4 –2.4 .9 1.0

50 to 54 years ......... 89.9 89.3 87.8 –.6 –2.0 1.5 1.7

55 to 59 years ......... 81.6 78.7 78.6 –2.9 –3.0 .1 .1

60 to 64 years ......... 56.7 46.3 54.3 –10.4 –2.4 –8.0 –14.8

65 to 69 years ......... 24.8 16.8 27.4 –8.0 2.7 –10.6 –38.7

70 years and older .. 11.5 8.3 11.7 –3.2 .2 –3.4 –29.1

Women ...................... 53.3 58.4 59.0 5.1 5.7 –.6 –.9

16 and 17 years ...... 44.8 44.9 46.7 .1 1.8 –1.8 –3.8

18 and 19 years ...... 65.2 64.8 64.5 –.4 –.6 .3 .4

20 to 24 years ......... 72.5 79.0 72.3 6.5 –.1 6.7 9.3

25 to 29 years ......... 70.8 81.7 75.9 10.9 5.1 5.8 7.7

30 to 34 years ......... 68.8 81.4 75.7 12.6 6.9 5.7 7.6

35 to 39 years ......... 69.5 81.2 76.5 11.7 6.9 4.7 6.2

40 to 44 years ......... 69.7 79.3 78.8 9.6 9.1 .5 .6

45 to 49 years ......... 66.1 74.0 78.2 7.9 12.1 –4.2 –5.4

50 to 54 years ......... 59.3 66.7 71.5 7.4 12.2 –4.8 –6.7

55 to 59 years ......... 49.4 51.3 60.0 1.9 10.6 –8.7 –14.5

60 to 64 years ......... 32.9 32.2 38.2 –.7 5.3 –6.0 –15.7

65 to 69 years ......... 14.1 12.1 18.1 –2.0 4.0 –6.0 –33.1

70 years and older .. 4.4 3.1 5.4 –1.3 1.0 –2.3 –42.4

Black and other ......... 62.8 65.9 64.3 3.1 1.5 1.6 2.5

Men ............................ 71.7 71.7 70.7 .0 –1.0 1.0 1.4

16 and 17 years ...... 26.9 27.7 29.9 .8 3.0 –2.2 –7.4

18 and 19 years ...... 55.3 54.5 51.8 –.8 –3.5 2.7 5.2

20 to 24 years ......... 77.2 76.6 74.3 –.6 –2.8 2.3 3.1

25 to 29 years ......... 87.1 84.2 86.9 –2.9 –.1 –2.7 –3.1

30 to 34 years ......... 89.6 87.2 88.2 –2.4 –1.4 –1.0 –1.1

35 to 39 years ......... 90.8 89.5 85.0 –1.3 –5.8 4.5 5.3

40 to 44 years ......... 90.3 90.3 86.8 .0 –3.5 3.5 4.0

45 to 49 years ......... 87.3 87.3 82.5 .0 –4.8 4.8 5.8

50 to 54 years ......... 82.0 81.7 79.6 –.3 –2.4 2.1 2.6

55 to 59 years ......... 68.7 64.4 66.4 –4.3 –2.3 –2.0 –3.0

60 to 64 years ......... 50.0 44.8 47.9 –5.2 –2.1 –3.1 –6.4

65 to 69 years ......... 22.7 16.5 26.0 –6.2 3.3 –9.5 –36.5

70 years and older .. 15.0 6.0 9.2 –8.9 –5.8 –3.2 –34.7

Women ...................... 55.3 61.1 58.9 5.8 3.5 2.2 3.8

16 and 17 years ...... 24.6 27.0 30.1 2.4 5.5 –3.1 –10.4

18 and 19 years ...... 45.8 45.5 50.2 –.3 4.4 –4.7 –9.4

20 to 24 years ......... 60.5 64.5 62.7 4.0 2.2 1.8 2.8

25 to 29 years ......... 68.4 76.5 70.7 8.1 2.3 5.8 8.2

30 to 34 years ......... 70.6 81.5 72.2 10.9 1.6 9.3 12.9

35 to 39 years ......... 74.0 81.9 74.7 7.9 .7 7.2 9.7

40 to 44 years ......... 72.2 80.9 76.2 8.7 4.1 4.7 6.1

45 to 49 years ......... 67.3 78.0 73.5 10.7 6.2 4.5 6.1

50 to 54 years ......... 60.0 69.1 65.5 9.1 5.5 3.6 5.5

55 to 59 years ......... 53.0 54.7 59.1 1.7 6.1 –4.4 –7.4

60 to 64 years ......... 37.4 36.8 34.3 –.6 –3.1 2.5 7.2

65 to 69 years ......... 14.8 11.6 12.3 –3.2 –2.5 –.7 –5.3

70 years and older .. 5.0 2.2 5.4 –2.8 .4 –3.2 –59.6

NOTE: Dash indicates data not available.

Table 2.

Labor force group 1984

1995

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495

Numerical

error

(projected

minus

actual)

Percent

error
8 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Civilian noninstitutional population, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Total ......................................... 176,383 193,817 198,584 9.9 12.6 –4,767 –2.7 100.0 100.0

Men, 16 and older ........................... 83,605 92,065 95,178 10.1 13.8 –3,113 –3.7 47.5 47.9

Women, 16 and older ...................... 92,778 101,752 103,406 9.7 11.5 –1,654 –1.8 52.5 52.1

White ............................................... 152,347 164,860 166,914 8.2 9.6 –2,054 –1.3 85.1 84.1

Men .............................................. 72,723 78,975 80,733 8.6 11.0 –1,758 –2.4 40.7 40.7

16 and 17 years ........................ 3,019 2,787 2,995 –7.7 –.8 –208 –6.9 1.4 1.5

18 and 19 years ........................ 3,094 2,519 2,859 –18.6 –7.6 –340 –11.0 1.3 1.4

20 to 24 years ........................... 8,522 6,450 7,163 –24.3 –15.9 –713 –8.4 3.3 3.6

25 to 29 years ........................... 8,775 7,454 7,721 –15.1 –12.0 –267 –3.0 3.8 3.9

30 to 34 years ........................... 8,041 8,776 8,932 9.1 11.1 –156 –1.9 4.5 4.5

35 to 39 years ........................... 7,103 9,061 9,167 27.6 29.1 –106 –1.5 4.7 4.6

40 to 44 years ........................... 5,751 8,321 8,400 44.7 46.1 –79 –1.4 4.3 4.2

45 to 49 years ........................... 4,800 7,465 7,345 55.5 53.0 120 2.5 3.9 3.7

50 to 54 years ........................... 4,635 5,782 5,683 24.7 22.6 99 2.1 3.0 2.9

55 to 59 years ........................... 4,756 4,581 4,565 –3.7 –4.0 16 .3 2.4 2.3

60 to 64 years ........................... 4,461 4,042 4,087 –9.4 –8.4 –45 –1.0 2.1 2.1

65 to 69 years ........................... 3,635 3,853 3,919 6.0 7.8 –66 –1.8 2.0 2.0

70 years and older .................... 6,133 7,884 7,896 28.6 28.7 –12 –.2 4.1 4.0

Women ......................................... 79,624 85,885 86,181 7.9 8.2 –296 –.4 44.3 43.4

16 and 17 years ........................ 2,899 2,675 2,827 –7.7 –2.5 –152 –5.2 1.4 1.4

18 and 19 years ........................ 3,135 2,574 2,787 –17.9 –11.1 –213 –6.8 1.3 1.4

20 to 24 years ........................... 8,782 6,717 7,150 –23.5 –18.6 –433 –4.9 3.5 3.6

25 to 29 years ........................... 8,897 7,511 7,761 –15.6 –12.8 –250 –2.8 3.9 3.9

30 to 34 years ........................... 8,176 8,804 8,941 7.7 9.4 –137 –1.7 4.5 4.5

35 to 39 years ........................... 7,335 9,161 9,186 24.9 25.2 –25 –.3 4.7 4.6

40 to 44 years ........................... 5,936 8,422 8,468 41.9 42.7 –46 –.8 4.3 4.3

45 to 49 years ........................... 4,998 7,630 7,489 52.7 49.8 141 2.8 3.9 3.8

50 to 54 years ........................... 4,916 6,033 5,901 22.7 20.0 132 2.7 3.1 3.0

55 to 59 years ........................... 5,248 4,923 4,845 –6.2 –7.7 78 1.5 2.5 2.4

60 to 64 years ........................... 5,164 4,533 4,488 –12.2 –13.1 45 .9 2.3 2.3

65 to 69 years ........................... 4,475 4,653 4,631 4.0 3.5 22 .5 2.4 2.3

70 years and older .................... 9,663 12,249 11,707 26.8 21.2 542 5.6 6.3 5.9

Black and other ............................... 24,035 28,957 31,670 20.5 31.8 –2,713 –11.3 14.9 15.9

Men .............................................. 10,882 13,090 14,445 20.3 32.7 –1,355 –12.5 6.8 7.3

16 and 17 years ........................ 636 618 799 –2.8 25.7 –181 –28.5 .3 .4

18 and 19 years ........................ 638 552 714 –13.5 11.9 –162 –25.4 .3 .4

20 to 24 years ........................... 1,586 1,328 1,672 –16.3 5.4 –344 –21.7 .7 .8

25 to 29 years ........................... 1,476 1,502 1,643 1.8 11.3 –141 –9.6 .8 .8

30 to 34 years ........................... 1,304 1,741 1,783 33.5 36.7 –42 –3.2 .9 .9

35 to 39 years ........................... 1,052 1,640 1,761 55.9 67.4 –121 –11.5 .8 .9

40 to 44 years ........................... 813 1,383 1,472 70.1 81.0 –89 –10.9 .7 .7

45 to 49 years ........................... 683 1,117 1,130 63.5 65.5 –13 –1.9 .6 .6

50 to 54 years ........................... 606 812 953 34.0 57.2 –141 –23.3 .4 .5

55 to 59 years ........................... 562 640 643 13.9 14.4 –3 –.5 .3 .3

60 to 64 years ........................... 506 511 560 1.0 10.7 –49 –9.7 .3 .3

65 to 69 years ........................... 365 431 476 18.1 30.5 –45 –12.4 .2 .2

70 years and older .................... 655 815 839 24.4 28.1 –24 –3.6 .4 .4

Women ......................................... 13,153 15,867 17,225 20.6 31.0 –1,358 –10.3 8.2 8.7

16 and 17 years ........................ 642 618 786 –3.7 22.4 –168 –26.2 .3 .4

18 and 19 years ........................ 672 596 744 –11.3 10.7 –148 –22.0 .3 .4

20 to 24 years ........................... 1,798 1,566 1,880 –12.9 4.6 –314 –17.5 .8 .9

25 to 29 years ........................... 1,751 1,704 1,937 –2.7 10.6 –233 –13.3 .9 1.0

30 to 34 years ........................... 1,579 1,916 2,080 21.3 31.8 –164 –10.4 1.0 1.0

35 to 39 years ........................... 1,259 1,847 2,069 46.7 64.3 –222 –17.6 1.0 1.0

40 to 44 years ........................... 1,003 1,622 1,731 61.7 72.6 –109 –10.9 .8 .9

45 to 49 years ........................... 829 1,339 1,356 61.5 63.6 –17 –2.1 .7 .7

50 to 54 years ........................... 758 1,005 1,116 32.6 47.2 –111 –14.6 .5 .6

55 to 59 years ........................... 721 821 820 13.9 13.8 1 .1 .4 .4

60 to 64 years ........................... 634 709 725 11.8 14.4 –16 –2.6 .4 .4

65 to 69 years ........................... 501 646 667 28.9 33.2 –21 –4.3 .3 .3

70 years and older .................... 1,006 1,478 1,313 46.9 30.5 165 16.4 .8 .7

Share of labor force,

1995

Table 3.

Labor force group 1984

1995

Projected Actual Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495

Numerical

error

(projected

minus

actual)

Percent

error
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 9

and 8.7 percent, respectively, of the population in 1995, but each accounted for

more than 28 percent of the projection

error. Their population was underprojected largely because of assumptions

about undocumented immigrants. The

Bureau of the Census has revised its

methodology for projecting the population of undocumented immigrants since

it issued projections for the 1984–95 labor force, and, as a result, the magnitude

of the error for this difficult-to-project

group has been significantly reduced.

The population projection error actually offset errors in labor force participation projections. If the projected 1995

labor force participation rates for each

age, sex, and racial group were applied

to the actual 1995 population, the result

would have increased the labor force by

6.9 million, and the projection would

have been 3.8 million too high. Although some of the age, sex, and racial

group labor force participation rates

were projected too low, and some of the

population groups too high, the net effect was that labor force participation

rate projections were too high and population projections too low, just about offsetting each other.

Footnote

1

 This section focuses on the 1995 projections

as part of the Bureau’s series of 1984–95 projections. In the previous series of projections, covering the 1982–95 period, the projected labor force

of 131.4 million was more accurate, with the error

being 900,000, or 0.7 percent. For a review of all

six BLS labor force projections to 1995, see Howard

N Fullerton, “Evaluating the 1995 BLS Labor Force

Projections,” 1997 Proceedings of the Section on

Government Statistics ((Alexandria, VA, American

Statistical Association, forthcoming).

BLS industry employment projections correctly described most

broad industry trends over the

1984–95 period. Most of the major industry sectors projected to have fasterthan-average growth did so, and 2 of the

3 major sectors projected to decline did

lose employment from 1984 to 1995.

Services and retail trade were projected

to account for 65 percent of the net

change in employment, which was very

close to the actual 72 percent they attained. Downsizing, which has resulted

in the contracting out of many operations, especially in manufacturing industries, is one of many factors that have

led to a growth in services faster than

that projected.

Evaluating the 1995

industry employment

projections

Major industry sectors

Total wage and salary employment was

underprojected by 6.6 million, reflecting chiefly the 3.1 million underprojection of the labor force, but also the unforeseen faster growth of wage and

salary employment, compared with that

of the labor force. The faster growth

stemmed from an unexpected increase

in dual jobholders over the projection

period. Despite the large numerical

underprojection of total employment,

the projected 1995 distribution of employment by major industrial sector

closely matched the actual distribution.

Indeed, the shares of total employment

for all but two sectors, agriculture and

wholesale trade, were projected to

change in the correct direction. Agriculture’s share was projected to decline,

but it maintained its small 1.7 percent

of employment. This was because, although agricultural production declined

as projected, a rapid growth in agricultural services, stemming largely from

lawn care services, offset that decline.

Wholesale trade’s share was projected

to increase from 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent, but it actually dropped to 5.3 percent. Wholesale trade was the only sector whose employment growth rate was

incorrectly projected to be faster than

total employment. The industry grew

more slowly than projected because

manufacturing, an intensive user of

wholesale trade distribution services,

grew more slowly than projected. (See

table 1.)

Manufacturing’s share of employment was correctly projected to decline;

however, instead of dropping from 20

percent to 18.4 percent, it fell even

lower, to 15.5 percent. These projections

were prepared in 1984, just as the

economy was emerging from the deeper

of two recessions in the 1980s, and it

was assumed that manufacturing would

recover from its losses, as in the past,

but not reach its 1979 peak. But this did

not occur. The overprojection was concentrated in defense-related industries in

durable goods manufacturing. NonduThe 1995 BLS projections of industry employment foretold

the trend of almost all major industry groupings, as the

economy hewed closely to the path projected for it

Arthur Andreassen