Monthly Labor Review March 2004 3

Labor Market, 2003

The U.S. labor market in 2003:

signs of improvement by year’s end

Job losses eased in 2003,

and the unemployment rate

edged down in the second half of the year

Rachel Krantz,

Marisa Di Natale,

and

Thomas J. Krolik

Rachel Krantz is an

economist in the

Division of Current

Employment Statistics,

Marisa Di Natale is an

economist in the

Division of Labor Force

Statistics, and Thomas

J. Krolik is an economist in the Division of

Local Area Unemployment Statistics, all

in the Office of

Employment and

Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

E-mail:

Krantz_R@bls.gov,

DiNatale_M@bls.gov,

or Krolik_T@bls.gov

I

n 2003, total nonfarm employment continued

to decline until late in the year. The unem-

 ployment rate rose during the first half of the

year and then fell, ending the year about where it

started.

Several factors affected employment trends

last year. Lingering effects from both the late1990s technology bubble and the 2001 recession, as well as related State and local government budget crises, led to continued job losses

or to rates of employment growth slower than

those seen in recent years. Strongly competitive

markets drove ongoing structural change in several industries, while lackluster tourism translated into little or no growth in some tourismrelated industries. In contrast to an otherwise

weak labor market, historically low interest rates

were a catalyst to job growth in interest-rate-sensitive industries. The data in this article are primarily from the Current Employment Statistics

(CES) survey, the Current Population Survey

(CPS), and the local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program. (See page 4 for an explanation of differences between the CES survey and

the CPS.)

Total nonfarm employment declined through

the first three quarters of the year and then registered small gains. Over the year, net payroll

employment was down by 243,000. Manufacturing lost 642,000 jobs, the largest drop of any sector. Information, transportation and warehousing, and wholesale trade also posted employment

declines. Job losses were not unique to private

industry: government employment contracted for

the first time since 1982. Private education and

health services added 329,000 workers in 2003,

more than any other sector, although the rate of

growth slowed relative to the rate in recent years.

Employment in professional and business services, financial activities, and construction grew

faster in 2003 than 2002. Largely on the basis of

strength in food services, the leisure and hospitality sector also added workers, while retail trade

and the natural resources and mining sector

showed little change in employment.

Although the 2001 recession had ended, many

of the payroll survey’s most sensitive cyclical

series did not show signs of improvement until

late 2003. While real gross domestic product,

consumer and business spending, and the stock

markets each grew at an accelerated pace after

the 2001 recession, total nonfarm employment

continued to contract through the third quarter

of 2003. The lack of job growth contributed to a

sense of uncertainty regarding the strength of

the recovery from the recession by raising concerns about consumers’ ability to continue spending.1

 Earnings growth slowed over the year, while

average weekly hours for all private industry

dipped to an all-time low in mid-2003 and ended

the year flat relative to 2002.

Worker hours in manufacturing often lead the

business cycle. Average weekly hours in manufacturing hovered near a recession low for much

of 2003 before lengthening in the last quarter.

Weekly overtime hours in manufacturing had

bottomed out at the end of 2001, but growth in

overtime stalled in mid-2002, and the workweek

did not lengthen again until the end of 2003. Over

the year, the manufacturing workweek expanded

by 0.2 hour and overtime by 0.3 hour.

The temporary help services industry supplies labor to a wide variety of industries, and its

employment trend is often considered a leading
4 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

indicator of payroll employment. Employers who face uncertain demand frequently hire temporary workers before hiring

permanent workers. The temporary help industry showed clear

signs of recovery in 2003 as its employment began to expand

in the second quarter. Over the year, the industry added

133,000 workers.

Trucking activity is often considered a cyclical indicator,

because it fluctuates with the demand for goods. Truck tonnage is an important measure of the quantity of goods shipped

via truck, while employment in truck transportation reflects

the industry’s labor needs. Although tonnage remained below its long-run growth trend in 2003, it strengthened relative

to its recent recession levels.2

 Despite some recovery in employment during the second half, employment in truck transportation was flat over the year.

Activity in machinery manufacturing also is considered a

cyclical indicator, because the industry sells its products to

other manufacturers and its expansion generally coincides

with increased capital investment. Industrial production of

machinery grew in the last quarter of 2003.3

 Over the year,

activity was up slightly. Despite the upturn in output, employment in machinery declined through the fourth quarter of

2003. The industry lost 59,000 jobs in 2003, although the pace

of job loss slowed as the year progressed.

The job situation in the highly cyclical securities industry

also showed relative improvement. After contracting by 44,000

jobs in 2002, securities, commodity contracts, and investments employment leveled out in 2003. (See table 1.) Demand

for financial services corresponded with strengthening in the

U.S. stock markets; the Standard and Poor’s 500 bottomed

out early in the year.

It was not until the final quarter of 2003 that payroll indicators aligned more clearly and hinted at a labor-market

recovery. After falling in each of the first three quarters,

total nonfarm employment edged up in the fourth. (See chart

1.) Promisingly, the job gains were spread among a number of

industries.4

 Aggregate weekly hours for total private industry

also appeared to have bottomed out in the third quarter. Another positive factor was relative improvement in manufacturing employment: although job losses in the industry continued through the fourth quarter, the pace and scope diminished in the second half of the year. (See chart 2.) In particular,

job losses in durable goods manufacturing slowed dramatically in the fourth quarter; on average, industries in this sector lost 133,000 jobs each of the first three quarters, compared

with 23,000 jobs lost in the fourth quarter.

Lingering effects from both the 1990s technology bubble

and the 2001 recession continued to influence the employment situation in 2003. Telecommunications and information-technology-related industries continued to deal with

overcapacity, while industries associated with commercial

construction suffered from lackluster spending. All of these

industries shed workers in 2003.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics produces two monthly employment series that are independently obtained: the estimate of total

nonfarm jobs, derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES

or establishment) survey, and the estimate of total civilian employment, based on the Current Population Survey (CPS or household

survey).

The CES survey is an employer-based survey that provides data on

the number of payroll jobs in nonfarm industries. The CPS is a survey

of households that furnishes data on the labor force status (employed, unemployed, or not in the labor force) of individuals and that

includes information on their demographic characteristics. The surveys are largely complementary.

Employment estimates from the CPS include both agricultural and

nonagricultural sectors and count persons in any type of work arrangement: wage and salary workers, self-employed persons, private

household workers, and unpaid workers who worked 15 hours or more

in an enterprise operated by a family member. Estimates from the CES

survey refer only to persons on wage and salary payrolls and exclude

private household workers. As a result, the count of employment

from the CPS is larger than that from the CES survey.

Partially offsetting the higher estimates from the CPS is the fact

that that survey is a count of persons, and individuals are counted

only once, regardless of the number of jobs they hold. In contrast,

the CES survey is an estimate of jobs and counts each job for persons

who work in more than one establishment.

The surveys’ methodology and coverage exhibit other differences as well. For example, the reference period for the CPS is the

Conceptual differences between employment estimates

from establishment and household surveys

week that includes the 12th day of the month, whereas, for the CES

survey, it is the pay period that includes the 12th of the month. Pay

periods vary in length and can be longer than 1 week. It is therefore

possible for the CES survey estimate of employment to reflect a

longer reference period than that used for the CPS.

The “universe” for the CPS is the civilian noninstitutional population, which comprises persons 15 years of age and older residing in

the United States who are not confined to institutions (for example,

correctional, psychiatric, and long-term care facilities) and who are

not on active duty in the Armed Forces. (Data are published for those

aged 16 and older.) In this regard, the coverage of the CES survey is

broader: the survey has no age restriction, wage and salary civilian

jobs held by uniformed military personnel are counted, and persons

who commute to the United States from Mexico or Canada to work

are classified as employed.

Effective with the release of data for January 2003, a number of

changes affect estimates from the CPS. These changes were undertaken to benchmark the survey data to more current estimates of the

U.S. population; to adopt new standards for data on race, ethnicity,

industry, and occupation; and to improve seasonal adjustment procedures. The population benchmark created a break in the CPS employment series between December 2002 and January 2003. Where possible, data in this article were adjusted to control for the resulting

increase in the employment level of 576,000 in January 2003. The

method used to “smooth” the employment series is discussed in

Marisa Di Natale, “Creating Comparability in CPS Employment Series,” on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/cps/cpscomp.pdf.
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 5

Table 1. .Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1997–2003

[Numbers in thousands]

Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

1997 2001 2002 2003

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

 Total nonfarm ................... 124,060 130,911 130,248 130,005 1,713 1.4 –663 –0.5 –243 –0.2

 Total private ....................... 104,305 109,588 108,654 108,457 1,321 1.2 –934 –.9 –197 –.2

 Goods producing ....................... 24,116 23,222 22,252 21,677 –224 –.9 –970 –4.2 –575 –2.6

Natural resources and mining ............. 657 599 575 570 –15 –2.3 –24 –4.0 –5 –.9

 Logging ....................................... 82 72 70 67 –3 –3.2 –2 –2.8 –3 –4.3

Mining .............................................. 575 527 505 503 –12 –2.2 –22 –4.2 –2 –.4

 Oil and gas extraction ................. 143 124 120 124 –5 –3.5 –4 –3.2 4 3.3

 Mining, except oil and gas ........... 247 218 206 202 –7 –3.1 –12 –5.5 –4 –1.9

 Coal mining ................................. 88 77 73 70 –3 –3.3 –4 –5.2 –3 –4.1

 Support activities for mining ........ 185 186 179 177 0 .1 –7 –3.8 –2 –1.1

Construction ........................................ 5,907 6,792 6,698 6,770 221 3.6 –94 –1.4 72 1.1

Construction of buildings ................ 1,454 1,585 1,576 1,584 33 2.2 –9 –.6 8 .5

Heavy and civil engineering

construction ................................. 832 953 915 918 30 3.5 –38 –4.0 3 .3

Specialty trade contractors ............ 3,621 4,255 4,207 4,268 159 4.1 –48 –1.1 61 1.4

Manufacturing ..................................... 17,552 15,831 14,979 14,337 –430 –2.5 –852 –5.4 –642 –4.3

 Durable goods ................................. 10,842 9,898 9,286 8,864 –236 –2.3 –612 –6.2 –422 –4.5

Wood products ............................ 600 564 547 535 –9 –1.5 –17 –3.0 –12 –2.2

Nonmetallic mineral products ....... 528 532 507 488 1 .2 –25 –4.7 –19 –3.7

Primary metals ............................. 643 538 499 464 –26 –4.4 –39 –7.2 –35 –7.0

Fabricated metal products ........... 1,722 1,604 1,525 1,467 –30 –1.8 –79 –4.9 –58 –3.8

Machinery ..................................... 1,512 1,296 1,199 1,140 –54 –3.8 –97 –7.5 –59 –4.9

Computer and electronic

products ..................................... 1,836 1,634 1,443 1,333 –51 –2.9 –191 –11.7 –110 –7.6

Computer and peripheral

equipment .............................. 323 267 242 219 –14 –4.6 –25 –9.4 –23 –9.5

Communications equipment ..... 247 213 171 154 –9 –3.6 –42 –19.7 –17 –9.9

Semiconductors and electronic

components .......................... 658 585 493 451 –18 –2.9 –92 –15.7 –42 –8.5

Electronic instruments ............. 498 467 441 425 –8 –1.6 –26 –5.6 –16 –3.6

Electrical equipment and

appliances .................................... 588 527 482 451 –15 –2.7 –45 –8.5 –31 –6.4

Transportation equipment ................ 2,062 1,886 1,810 1,765 –44 –2.2 –76 –4.0 –45 –2.5

Furniture and related products ....... 623 618 591 569 –1 –.2 –27 –4.4 –22 –3.7

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......... 727 700 682 653 –7 –.9 –18 –2.6 –29 –4.3

Nondurable goods ........................... 6,710 5,933 5,693 5,473 –194 –3.0 –240 –4.0 –220 –3.9

Food manufacturing ..................... 1,558 1,540 1,518 1,514 –5 –.3 –22 –1.4 –4 –.3

Beverages and tobacco

products ................................... 208 207 205 199 0 –.1 –2 –1.0 –6 –2.9

Textile mills .................................. 435 310 282 244 –31 –8.1 –28 –9.0 –38 –13.5

Textile product mills ..................... 217 199 192 174 –5 –2.1 –7 –3.5 –18 –9.4

Apparel ......................................... 683 388 346 298 –74 –13.2 –42 –10.8 –48 –13.9

Leather and allied products ......... 88 53 49 44 –9 –11.9 –4 –7.5 –5 –10.2

Paper and paper products ........... 630 562 537 512 –17 –2.8 –25 –4.4 –25 –4.7

Printing and related support

activities ................................... 825 742 690 672 –21 –2.6 –52 –7.0 –18 –2.6

Petroleum and coal products ....... 137 121 117 112 –4 –3.1 –4 –3.3 –5 –4.3

Chemicals ..................................... 991 944 921 898 –12 –1.2 –23 –2.4 –23 –2.5

Plastics and rubber products ...... 940 867 837 806 –18 –2.0 –30 –3.5 –31 –3.7

Service providing ...................... 99,944 107,689 107,995 108,328 1,936 1.9 306 .3 333 .3

Private service-providing ...... 80,189 86,366 86,402 86,780 1,544 1.9 36 .0 378 .4

Trade, transportation, and utilities ..... 24,924 25,690 25,403 25,250 192 .8 –287 –1.1 –153 –.6

Wholesale trade .............................. 5,722 5,708 5,634 5,592 –4 –.1 –74 –1.3 –42 –.7

Durable goods .............................. 3,107 3,069 2,986 2,942 –10 –.3 –83 –2.7 –44 –1.5

Nondurable goods ........................ 2,024 2,022 2,008 1,991 –1 .0 –14 –.7 –17 –.8

Fourth quarter

 Industry 2001–02 2002–03 Average change,

1997–2001

1

See footnote at end of table.
6 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Electronic markets and agents

and brokers .............................. 591 617 639 659 7 1.1 22 3.6 20 3.1

 Retail trade ..................................... 14,503 15,126 14,959 14,917 156 1.1 –167 –1.1 –42 –.3

Motor vehicle and parts

dealers ....................................... 1,728 1,863 1,884 1,892 34 1.9 21 1.1 8 .4

 Automobile dealers ................. 1,136 1,234 1,258 1,259 25 2.1 24 1.9 1 .1

Furniture and home furnishings

stores ......................................... 490 536 545 544 12 2.3 9 1.7 –1 –.2

Electronics and appliance

stores ......................................... 502 545 521 511 11 2.1 –24 –4.4 –10 –1.9

 Building material and garden

supply stores ............................. 1,045 1,161 1,177 1,208 29 2.7 16 1.4 31 2.6

 Food and beverage stores .......... 2,960 2,933 2,866 2,823 –7 –.2 –67 –2.3 –43 –1.5

 Health and personal care stores . 864 950 934 951 22 2.4 –16 –1.7 17 1.8

 Gasoline stations ........................ 962 918 888 873 –11 –1.2 –30 –3.3 –15 –1.7

 Clothing and clothing

accessories stores .................. 1,256 1,302 1,316 1,299 12 .9 14 1.1 –17 –1.3

 Sporting goods, hobby, book,

 and music stores ...................... 642 661 649 640 5 .7 –12 –1.8 –9 –1.4

 General merchandise stores ....... 2,680 2,827 2,792 2,824 37 1.3 –35 –1.2 32 1.1

 Department stores .................. 1,674 1,749 1,653 1,616 19 1.1 –96 –5.5 –37 –2.2

 Miscellaneous store retailers ....... 927 979 950 929 13 1.4 –29 –3.0 –21 –2.2

 Nonstore retailers ........................ 447 452 438 422 1 .3 –14 –3.1 –16 –3.7

 Transportation and warehousing .... 4,083 4,257 4,220 4,163 44 1.0 –37 –.9 –57 –1.4

 Air transportation ......................... 549 577 566 510 7 1.3 –11 –1.9 –56 –9.9

 Rail transportation ....................... 222 224 216 215 1 .2 –8 –3.6 –1 –.5

 Water transportation .................... 50 53 53 51 1 1.5 0 .0 –2 –3.8

 Truck transportation .................... 1,326 1,363 1,334 1,334 9 .7 –29 –2.1 0 .0

 Transit and ground passenger

transportation ............................ 354 367 379 387 3 .9 12 3.3 8 2.1

 Pipeline transportation ................ 49 45 41 39 –1 –2.1 –4 –8.9 –2 –4.9

 Scenic and sightseeing

transportation ............................ 25 28 25 29 1 2.9 –3 –10.7 4 16.0

 Support activities for

transportation ............................ 481 528 525 513 12 2.4 –3 –.6 –12 –2.3

 Couriers and messengers ........... 561 569 559 564 2 .4 –10 –1.8 5 .9

Tabl Warehousing and storage ........... 467 503 524 521 9 1.9 21 4.2 –3 –.6

 Utilities ........................................... 616 599 591 579 –4 –.7 –8 –1.3 –12 –2.0

Information ...................................... 3,134 3,538 3,321 3,171 101 3.1 –217 –6.1 –150 –4.5

 Publishing industries, except

 Internet ................................... 966 995 952 918 7 .7 –43 –4.3 –34 –3.6

 Motion picture and sound

 recording industries.................. 361 377 392 380 4 1.1 15 4.0 –12 –3.1

 Broadcasting, except Internet .... 315 342 332 327 7 2.1 –10 –2.9 –5 –1.5

 Internet publishing and

broadcasting .............................. 25 40 31 30 4 12.5 –9 –22.5 –1 –3.2

 Telecommunications ..................... 1,080 1,269 1,141 1,063 47 4.1 –128 –10.1 –78 –6.8

 ISPs, search portals,

and data processing ................. 346 469 426 403 31 7.9 –43 –9.2 –23 –5.4

 Other information services ........... 41 45 48 48 1 2.4 3 6.7 0 .0

 Financial activities ........................... 7,281 7,836 7,893 7,985 139 1.9 57 .7 92 1.2

 Finance and insurance .................. 5,388 5,803 5,858 5,923 104 1.9 55 .9 65 1.1

 Monetary authorities,

central bank ............................... 22 23 23 22 0 1.1 0 .0 –1 –4.3

 Credit intermediation and related

activities ................................... 2,470 2,635 2,731 2,791 41 1.6 96 3.6 60 2.2

 Depository credit

 intermediation ..................... 1,705 1,720 1,738 1,758 4 .2 18 1.0 20 1.2

 Commercial banking ........... 1,285 1,273 1,277 1,281 –3 –.2 4 .3 4 .3

 Securities, commodity contracts,

investments .............................. 655 818 774 769 41 5.7 –44 –5.4 –5 –.6

 Insurance carriers and related

 activities ................................. 2,168 2,238 2,246 2,260 18 .8 8 .4 14 .6

Table 1. .Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1997–2003

[Numbers in thousands]

Fourth quarter Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1997

 Industry 2001–02

2001 2002 2003

2002–03 Average change,

 1997–2001

1

1

1

1

See footnote at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 7

 Funds, trusts, and other

financial vehicles ................... 72 89 84 80 4 5.4 –5 –5.6 –4 –4.8

 Real estate and rental and leasing ... 1,893 2,033 2,035 2,063 35 1.8 2 .1 28 1.4

 Real estate .................................. 1,250 1,346 1,368 1,394 24 1.9 22 1.6 26 1.9

 Rental and leasing services ........ 619 659 641 639 10 1.6 –18 –2.7 –2 –.3

 Lessors of nonfinancial intangible

assets ...................................... 24 29 27 30 1 4.8 –2 –6.9 3 11.1

Professional and business services... 14,662 16,137 15,926 16,114 369 2.4 –211 – 1.3 188 1.2

 Professional and technical

services ..................................... 5,793 6,812 6,644 6,648 255 4.1 –168 –2.5 4 .1

Legal services ........................... 997 1,102 1,129 1,142 26 2.5 27 2.5 13 1.2

Accounting and bookkeeping

services .................................. 778 873 816 811 24 2.9 –57 –6.5 –5 –.6

Architectural and engineering

services .................................. 1,082 1,263 1,240 1,234 45 3.9 –23 –1.8 –6 –.5

Computer systems design

and related services .............. 874 1,237 1,128 1,106 91 9.1 –109 –8.8 –22 –2.0

Management and technical

consulting services ................ 591 737 740 760 37 5.7 3 .4 20 2.7

 Management of companies

and enterprises ........................... 1,742 1,749 1,687 1,670 2 .1 –62 –3.5 –17 –1.0

 Administrative and waste

services ....................................... 7,126 7,576 7,596 7,796 113 1.5 20 .3 200 2.6

Administrative and support

services ................................... 6,833 7,257 7,278 7,475 106 1.5 21 .3 197 2.7

 Employment services ............. 3,048 3,222 3,245 3,427 44 1.4 23 .7 182 5.6

 Temporary help services .... 2,137 2,174 2,185 2,318 9 .4 11 .5 133 6.1

 Business support services ..... 752 775 752 748 6 .8 –23 –3.0 –4 –.5

 Services to buildings

and dwellings ........................ 1,436 1,601 1,620 1,640 41 2.8 19 1.2 20 1.2

 Waste management and

remediation services ............... 292 319 318 321 7 2.2 –1 –.3 3 .9

Education and health services ........... 14,232 15,873 16,377 16,706 410 2.8 504 3.2 329 2.0

 Educational services ..................... 2,185 2,560 2,669 2,722 94 4.0 109 4.3 53 2.0

 Health care and social assistance 12,046 13,313 13,708 13,984 317 2.5 395 3.0 276 2.0

 Ambulatory health care services 4,134 4,520 4,704 4,820 97 2.3 184 4.1 116 2.5

Offices of physicians ................ 1,683 1,934 1,985 2,024 63 3.5 51 2.6 39 2.0

Outpatient care centers ............ 356 405 420 424 12 3.3 15 3.7 4 1.0

Home health care services ........ 703 652 701 738  ́–13 –1.9 49 7.5 37 5.3

 Hospitals ...................................... 3,844 4,097 4,201 4,277 63 1.6 104 2.5 76 1.8

 Nursing and residential

care facilities ........................... 2,465 2,712 2,763 2,794 62 2.4 51 1.9 31 1.1

 Nursing care facilities ............. 1,483 1,561 1,579 1,584 20 1.3 18 1.2 5 .3

 Social assistance ........................ 1,603 1,985 2,040 2,093 96 5.5 55 2.8 53 2.6

 Child day care services .......... 581 727 745 768 37 5.8 18 2.5 23 3.1

Leisure and hospitality ....................... 11,074 11,979 12,086 12,173 226 2.0 107 .9 87 .7

 Arts, entertainment,

 and recreation ............................ 1,611 1,818 1,812 1,798 52 3.1 –6 –.3 –14 –.8

 Performing arts and spectator

 sports ...................................... 352 380 377 371 7 1.9 –3 –.8 –6 –1.6

 Museums, historical sites, zoos,

 and parks ................................ 95 115 114 113 5 4.9 –1 –.9 –1 –.9

 Amusements, gambling,

 and recreation ......................... 1,165 1,323 1,320 1,314 40 3.2 –3 –.2 –6 –.5

 Accommodations and food

services ....................................... 9,463 10,160 10,275 10,374 174 1.8 115 1.1 99 1.0

Accommodations ......................... 1,741 1,788 1,801 1,748 12 .7 13 .7 –53 –2.9

Food services and drinking

 places ....................................... 7,722 8,372 8,473 8,626 163 2.0 101 1.2 153 1.8

Other services .................................... 4,882 5,314 5,395 5,381 108 2.1 81 1.5 –14 –.3

 Repair and maintenance .............. 1,178 1,251 1,243 1,235 18 1.5 –8 –.6 –8 –.6

 Personal and laundry services ... 1,185 1,254 1,258 1,252 17 1.4 4 .3 –6 –.5

 Table 1. .Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1997–2003

 [Numbers in thousands]

Fourth quarter Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

 Industry

1997 2001 2002 2003

2001–02 2002–03 Average change,

 1997–2001

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

1

1

1

1

See footnote at end of table.

1

1
8 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

 Membership associations and

organizations ........................... 2,519 2,808 2,893 2,895 72 2.8 85 3.0 2 .1

Government ........................................ 19,755 21,323 21,593 21,548 392 1.9 270 1.3 –45 –.2

 Federal ........................................... 2,792 2,754 2,778 2,727 –10 –.3 24 .9 –51 –1.8

 Federal, except U.S. Postal

 Service ..................................... 1,921 1,891 1,958 1,929 –8 –.4 67 3.5 –29 –1.5

 U.S. Postal Service ..................... 871 863 820 798 –2 –.2 –43 –5.0 –22 –2.7

 State government .......................... 4,583 4,979 5,024 5,024 99 2.1 45 .9 0 .0

 State government education ....... 1,906 2,176 2,246 2,284 68 3.4 70 3.2 38 1.7

 State government, excluding

education ................................... 2,677 2,803 2,778 2,740 32 1.2 –25 –.9 –38 –1.4

 Local government .......................... 12,380 13,590 13,791 13,797 303 2.4 201 1.5 6 .0

 Local government education ....... 6,828 7,560 7,697 7,686 183 2.6 137 1.8 –11 –.1

 Local government, excluding

education ................................... 5,551 6,030 6,095 6,111 120 2.1 65 1.1 16 .3

.................................................... Table 2.

 Table 1. ..Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1997–2003

 [Numbers in thousands]

Fourth quarter Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

1997 2001 2002 2003

Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent

Driven by high expectations of growth in demand, telecommunications companies quickly expanded their transmission capacity during the 1990s. When it later became clear

that these expectations would not be met, companies speedily cut their prices to capture as much demand—and revenue—

as possible. Facing stiff competition and hefty debts, telecommunications companies also shed workers as they

struggled to profit.5 Employment in telecommunications

reached a peak in the first quarter of 2001 and shrank 19.9

percent through 2003. The industry lost 78,000 jobs in 2003,

the largest portion of job losses in the information sector.

While the job situation in telecommunications continued to

weaken in 2003, the pace of job loss slowed over the year.

Employment declines were concentrated in wired telecommunications carriers—an industry which includes companies that facilitate communications via landlines—and in telecommunications resellers.

Spurred by the popularity of Internet and e-mail applications, as well as by concerns of a year-2000 computer glitch,

investment and spending on information processing equipment and software grew an average of 20 percent per year

between 1995 and 2000. The information-technology-related

components of manufacturing, namely, computer and peripheral equipment, communications equipment, and semiconductors and electronic components, together averaged 2.4-

percent annual employment growth over the 5-year span.

Spending on information processing equipment reached a

high in the last quarter of 2000 and contracted each quarter of

the next year.6

 The peak in information-technology-related

manufacturing employment lagged spending by one quarter,

although the industry continued to shed workers through

2003, 2 years after spending had begun to recover. Employment did show relative improvement in 2003, as the pace of

job loss slowed by one-third compared with 2002.

The job situation in computer systems design and related

services also mirrored the technology bubble’s expansion and

contraction. After reaching a high in the first quarter of 2001,

employment in computer systems design fell 17.5 percent from

the second quarter of 2001 to the end of 2003. The pace of job

loss moderated over the year, although the industry still lost

22,000 jobs. The practice of outsourcing computer-related jobs

offshore is yet another factor underlying the industry’s weak

employment situation.7

The technology bust and the 2001 recession were characterized by cutbacks in business spending. Besides slashing

spending on information processing equipment and software,

businesses reduced their investment in structures. The rate

of expansion of telecommunications infrastructure dropped

once the industry revised its expectations of future demand.

Employment in utility system construction, which includes

construction of communication lines and related structures,

followed this boom and bust: from the second quarter of 2001

through mid-2003, the industry shed 30,000 jobs; after that,

construction improved somewhat. The result was that, over

the year, employment was flat.

Architectural and structural metals manufacturing, which

produces materials such as prefabricated metal buildings and

concrete-reinforcing bars for commercial construction

projects, shed 13.4 percent of its workforce from 2000 through

mid-2003. Job losses moderated in 2003, although the indus-

 Industry 2001–02 2002–03 Average change,

 1997–2001

1 Includes other industries not shown separately.
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 9

try still shed 10,000 jobs over the year. Employment in commercial building construction contracted 7.1 percent from

mid-2001 through 2003 and declined by 16,000 over the year.

Employment in industrial building construction dropped by

8,000 in 2003, marking the industry’s third consecutive year

of decline.

Long-term structural change driven by foreign and domestic competition, as well as technological advances, led to

continued job losses. Manufacturing employment declined

by 4.3 percent over the year. Until the fourth quarter, the losses

were more severe in durable goods manufacturing; for the

year, the pace of job loss exceeded 3 percent in both durable

and nondurable manufacturing. In recent years, cyclical factors exacerbated manufacturing’s long-run employment decline, and the pace of job loss accelerated, with the industry

having lost 2.9 million jobs since 2000. Foreign competition

has played an important role, both in driving the adoption of

laborsaving technologies in the United States and in moving

manufacturing jobs offshore. This relationship is evidenced

by the long-run growth of both manufactured imports and

industrial production, coupled with manufacturing’s downward trend in employment.8

Primary metals manufacturing lost 35,000 jobs in 2003,

continuing an employment slide that accelerated markedly in

2001. Intense competition among U.S. and foreign competitors has forced the steel industry to consolidate in recent

years by shedding excess capacity and workers. In March

2002, steel tariffs were implemented in order to protect the

industry from foreign competition while it underwent major

restructuring. After the tariffs took effect, the industry’s pace

of job loss slowed from 12.6 percent in 2001 to 7.2 percent, on

average, in 2002 and 2003.9 In December 2003, the tariffs were

lifted, reducing the likelihood of retaliatory trade actions from

foreign steel-producing countries.

Although conditions in the steel industry improved after

the tariffs were put into place, motor vehicle parts manufacturers were hurt by higher steel input prices. With profits

squeezed between higher steel costs and automobile producers’ demands for low-priced parts, the industry shed 30,000

jobs in 2003. Data on producer prices illustrate this constriction well: the cost of steel mill products rose 11.3 percent from

2001 to 2003, while prices received by producers of motor

vehicle parts and accessories shrank 1.3 percent over the

same period.10

In contrast to motor vehicle parts manufacturers, motor

vehicles manufacturing added 7,000 workers over the year,

after shedding employees the previous 2 years. Before the

labor negotiations that began in July 2003, the “Big 3” auto

producers were locked into contracts that restricted them from

closing plants. Suffering from overcapacity, high retiree health

and pension costs, and a shrinking market share, the Big 3

convinced the United Auto Workers labor union of the need

for closings. New contracts were ratified in September 2003,

and the first of several plant closings occurred the following

month.11 While the traditional automobile industry struggled

in 2003, foreign automobile producers expanded their market

share and production in North America.12

Apparel, textile, and leather products manufacturing industries have each been shedding workers for several decades. Apparel shed 48,000 workers, and textile mills, which

manufacture basic fibers into products such as yarn and fabric, lost 38,000 jobs over the year. Textile product mills, which

purchase primary textiles and manufacture nonapparel textile

products such as sheets and towels, also shrank in 2003, as

the industry cut 9.4 percent of its workforce. Employment in

leather and allied products decreased by 5,000 in 2003, a

decline that was part of an ongoing contraction that has separated about two-thirds of the industry’s workers since 1990.

Competition from foreign producers is one factor that has

led to the employment declines. Indeed, U.S. industrial production of textiles contracted each year from 2000 to 2003,

and the production of apparel and leather goods declined

each year from 1997 to 2003.13 Also in recent years, imports of

textiles and of leather and allied products have grown.14 Automation is yet another factor affecting employment trends in

these industries.15

Paper and paper products manufacturing lost 25,000 jobs

over the year, and employment in the industry has fallen by

129,000 since 1994. Over the long term, the industry has

struggled with overcapacity and increased global competition and has shed jobs through consolidation. The pace of

job loss accelerated during the 2001 recession.16

The U.S. Postal Service, too, has closed and consolidated

several facilities in recent years. Since mid-1999, the Postal

Service has cut 10.9 percent of its workforce. In 2003, employment declined by 22,000 workers. In recent years, the Postal

Service has reduced its labor needs by adopting technologies that facilitate automated mail sorting. Decreased mail volume also has reduced the need for workers. Mail volume has

shrunk due to the popularity of on-line bill paying, e-mail,

increased competition, and economic “softness.”17 Couriers,

an industry that includes private parcel delivery, has also

become more automated in recent years. This industry has

shed 58,000 workers since 2000, although, in 2003, employment was flat.

Automation, such as self-scanning equipment at checkout counters, has become more prevalent in food and beverage stores in recent years and is one factor behind the

industry’s job decline.18 Fierce competition is another factor.

Employment in food and beverage stores has contracted by

180,000 since reaching a peak in mid-2000; employment fell by

43,000 in 2003. Shrinking employment in grocery stores has

driven the decline, although specialty food stores also have
10 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

shed workers in recent years. Warehouse clubs and supercenters, which sell groceries as well as general merchandise,

have captured a large portion of grocery stores’ traditional

markets.19

Employment in warehouse clubs and supercenters expanded by 63,000 over the year. Bargain-hunting and convenience-seeking consumers have supported growth in this industry by increasingly shopping at warehouse stores and

supercenters, rather than at more traditional stores. Indeed,

warehouse clubs and supercenters have registered doubledigit sales growth in recent years, while traditional-style department stores have struggled to compete.20 The job situation in department stores, except discount stores reflects the

woes of traditional-style department stores, as 55,000 jobs

were lost over the year. Since reaching a high in mid-2001,

employment in the industry has contracted by 17.3 percent.

Over the same time span, employment in discount department stores has been relatively flat. Unlike traditional-style

department stores, discounters generally have cashiers located at stores’ exits; they differ from warehouse clubs and

supercenters because they do not sell groceries. Despite dynamic job trends within the retail trade sector, overall retail

employment was essentially flat in 2003.

The public sector was not immune to the weakening job

situation in 2003, and government employment contracted

for the first time in more than two decades. (See chart 3.)

Although cutbacks by the U.S. Postal Service account for a

portion of the job decline, employment in the Federal Government, except U.S. Postal Service also fell over the year.

Job growth stalled in State government and local government.

Strong tax revenues during the 1990s facilitated escalated

government spending. However, when the 2001 recession hit,

tax revenues shrank considerably and pushed government

budgets out of balance. State governments also were saddled

with growing unemployment compensation and Medicaid

costs, while both State and local governments were burdened

by increased security costs.21 In addition, nearly all State and

local governments are required, by law, to balance their annual budgets.22

One-time accounting fixes that shifted spending from one

fiscal year to the next, increased fees, and tobacco settlement

funds helped States avoid job cutbacks overall in 2002.23 With

continued budget woes in 2003, however, States were forced

to make difficult spending decisions. In State government,

excluding education, the rate of job loss accelerated over the

year and employment declined by 38,000. Appreciating property values drove local tax revenues and helped local governments balance cutbacks in State aid. Still, employment in local government, excluding education grew only 16,000 over

the year, compared with an average growth of 120,000 workers per year from 1997 to 2001.

Job growth in education, both public and private, slowed

 in 2003. Employment in local government education was flat

over the year, after adding an average of 183,000 jobs per year

from 1997 to 2001. Employment in State government education, which includes mostly public universities and colleges,

grew by 38,000 over the year, compared with an average

growth of 68,000 per year from 1997 to 2001. Employment in

private educational services grew by 53,000 in 2003, about

one-half of the category’s growth in 2002; both primary and

secondary schools, as well as private colleges, experienced

slower growth over the year. Private colleges suffered from

shrunken endowments and cutbacks in donation levels, while

public universities and colleges faced reductions in government funding.24

Health care and social assistance services also rely on

government support, and in recent years health-care-related

industries have faced cuts in Medicare and Medicaid reimbursement rates. The reduced benefits to these industries

coincided with increased spending on liability insurance and

disaster readiness and also with slower employment growth.25

Social assistance maintained its 2002 rate of growth in 2003,

adding 53,000 jobs over the year. Overall, the pace of job

growth in health care and social assistance slackened in 2003,

but the industry still experienced considerable growth and

added more jobs than any other industry.

Tourism remained muted in 2003, as did employment in

related industries. Transportation and warehousing shed

57,000 workers over the year, with air transportation accounting for the majority of the decline. Airlines continued to struggle

with overcapacity in 2003. Geopolitical and terrorist concerns

played a role in the lackluster demand for air travel, especially in

the first half of the year. Beginning in 2001, reduced business

travel crimped the airlines’ revenues. A sharp decline in air travel

after September 11, 2001, further intensified the airlines’ difficulties. With its customers financially distressed, aerospace product and parts manufacturers shared the airlines’ pain,26 shedding

26,000 jobs in 2003. Overall, the industry has lost 83,000 jobs

since the third quarter of 2001.

Leisure and hospitality added 87,000 workers over the year,

with strength in food services bolstering weakness in accommodations and entertainment. Employment growth in food

services and drinking places corresponded with strong sales

in the industry.27 However, with business and leisure travel in

a slump, the job situation in hotels and motels, except casino

hotels remained lackluster. Since reaching a peak in 2000, employment in this industry has decreased by 137,000—55,000

alone in 2003. Arts, entertainment, and recreation shed workers, too, and reduced its employment by 14,000 over the year.
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 11

Low long-term interest rates fueled employment growth in

mortgage- and housing-related industries, generating a

pocket of contrast to an otherwise weak employment situation in 2003. Housing became more affordable as mortgage

rates dipped to record lows that spurred both sales and refinancing activity.28

In 2003, housing starts increased from already high levels

and drove job growth in construction. An employment increase of 61,000 in specialty trade contractors reflected

greater demand for residential construction. The pace of newand existing-home sales accelerated over the year and drove

employment growth in real estate.

 29 The job situation in building material and garden supply stores also reflected the

housing market’s strength. The industry’s employment expanded by 31,000 over the year, marking the 12th consecutive

year of job growth. Sales at building material and garden supply stores accelerated slightly in each of the last 3 years,

reaching 6.6 percent in 2003.30

Refinancing activity reached historically high levels as

homeowners took advantage of low mortgage rates. Credit

intermediation and related activities added workers to meet

the increased demand for refinancing, and employment

swelled by 60,000 over the year. All of the industry’s growth

occurred in the first three quarters of the year; by the final

quarter of 2003, refinancing activity had slowed somewhat,

and the credit intermediation industry cut back its workforce.

Unemployment rose in mid-2003, but began to decline at

year’s end. Estimates from the CPS showed that the unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 2003, 5.9 percent, was

unchanged from the jobless rate in the fourth quarter of 2002.

After having ticked up to 6.1 percent during the second quarter of the year, the unemployment rate began a slight downward movement during the last half of the year. (See chart 4.)

Unemployment rates for all the major demographic groups—

adult men, adult women, teens, whites, blacks, and Hispanics—peaked at midyear and then declined to their 2002 levels,

or below in the case of Hispanics. (See table 2.) The unemployment level also was little changed, on net, over the year,

and the number of unemployed persons totaled 8.6 million by

year’s end.

The number of employed persons rose fairly steadily by 1

million in 2003. Employment growth, however, was slower

than population growth, and the employment-population ratio fell by 0.2 percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2002.

The employment-population ratio declined throughout 2003,

to a rate of 62.3 percent in the fourth quarter, the lowest level

in 10 years. Since the end of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2001, the employment-population ratio has declined by

0.7 percentage point.

The labor force grew by 1 million from the fourth quarter of

2002 to the fourth quarter of 2003, due mainly to the increase

in employment over the year. The labor force participation

rate fell during the year from 66.5 percent in the fourth quarter

of 2002 to 66.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003. The drop

was caused by population growth that outpaced the growth

in the labor force.

Adult women and men (those aged 20 years and older)

fared somewhat better than teenagers during 2003. The unemployment levels of both men and women did not increase

significantly over the year, and the unemployment rates for

both sexes were unchanged as well, at 5.5 percent and 5.1

percent, respectively. Nor did labor force participation rates

or employment-population ratios change much for both men

and women over the year. The participation rate for women

was 60.5 percent in the fourth quarter of 2003, and the rate for

men was 76.0 percent. After a half century of relatively steady

growth, women’s labor force participation has moved little

since 1998. Employment for adult women increased by 505,000

over the year, while that for men increased by 858,000, largely

on the strength of the fourth quarter.

Continuing a declining trend, the number of teenagers in

the labor force fell by 418,000 over the year, to a level of 7.0

million, and the labor force participation rate of teenagers

declined by 3.2 percentage points, to 43.6 percent, close to

the lowest ever recorded for this group. Teenagers are less

likely to participate in the labor force during economic contractions, and the teen labor force participation rate had been

declining since the mid-1990’s, due at least in part to increased

rates of school enrollment.31 The employment level for teenagers declined by 349,000 over the year, to 5.9 million, and the

group’s employment-population ratio declined by 2.6 percentage points, to 36.5 percent. At 1.1 million, the unemployment

level for those aged 16 to 19 was about unchanged over the

year. The unemployment rate for teenagers peaked at 18.3

percent in the second quarter of 2003. This was the highest

unemployment rate for the group since the second quarter of

1993. The rate began falling in the third quarter of 2003 and

ended the year at 16.3 percent, the same as in 2002.

Among the major racial and ethnic groups, Hispanics saw

improvements in their unemployment level and rate, while the

levels and rates for whites and blacks were little changed

over the year. By year’s end, the number of unemployed blacks

was 1.8 million, and their unemployment rate was 10.7 percent, both measures little changed from 2002. The black unemployment rate was more than double the unemployment

rate for whites. The number of employed blacks edged down

by 126,000 over the year, to 14.7 million, and the employmentpopulation ratio for the group fell from 57.7 percent to 57.0

percent. While the employment level for whites was unchanged over the year, Hispanics saw an increase of 523,000.

Still, at 63.1 percent, the Hispanic employment-population ratio was little changed over the year. Unemployment levels for

whites were about unchanged over the year, while the un-
12 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

 Table 2. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older, by selected characteristics,

 quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 2000–03

 [Numbers in thousands]

 2003

 Total

Civilian labor force .................................... 142,965 144,265 145,236 145,864 146,585 146,628 146,986 1,750 1,045

 Participation rate............................... 66.9 66.8 66.5 66.3 66.4 66.2 66.1 –.4 ...

Employed .............................................. 137,357 136,253 136,694 137,355 137,585 137,647 138,369 1,675 1,012

 Employment-population ratio ............ 64.3 63.0 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.1 62.3 –.2 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 5,608 8,011 8,542 8,509 9,000 8,981 8,616 74 33

 Unemployment rate ........................... 3.9 5.6 5.9 5.8 6.1 6.1 5.9 .0 ...

Men, 20 years and older .............

Civilian labor force .................................... 72,307 73,187 73,775 74,155 74,569 74,749 75,058 1,283 910

 Participation rate............................... 76.6 76.5 76.1 75.9 76.0 75.9 76.0 –.1 ...

 Employed ............................................. 69,870 69,539 69,719 70,109 70,221 70,396 70,930 1,211 858

 Employment-population ratio ............ 74.0 72.7 71.9 71.7 71.6 71.5 71.8 –.1 ...

 Unemployed ......................................... 2,437 3,648 4,055 4,046 4,349 4,353 4,128 73 53

 Unemployment rate ........................... 3.4 5.0 5.5 5.5 5.8 5.8 5.5 .0 ...

 Women, 20 years and older .........

Civilian labor force .................................... 62,457 63,268 64,007 64,446 64,773 64,760 64,887 880 558

 Participation rate............................... 60.5 60.6 60.6 60.6 60.8 60.5 60.5 –.1 ...

Employed .............................................. 60,351 60,175 60,736 61,238 61,450 61,379 61,547 811 505

 Employment-population ratio ............ 58.4 57.6 57.5 57.6 57.6 57.4 57.4 –.1 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 2,106 3,092 3,271 3,208 3,323 3,381 3,340 69 53

 Unemployment rate ........................... 3.4 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.1 .0 ...

 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ............

Civilian labor force .................................... 8,201 7,810 7,454 7,263 7,243 7,119 7,040 –414 –418

 Participation rate............................... 51.7 48.8 46.8 45.3 45.1 44.2 43.6 –3.2 ...

Employed .............................................. 7,137 6,539 6,239 6,008 5,914 5,872 5,892 –347 –349

 Employment-population ratio. ........... 45.0 40.9 39.1 37.5 36.8 36.4 36.5 –2.6 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 1,064 1,271 1,215 1,255 1,328 1,248 1,148 –67 –69

 Unemployment rate ........................... 13.0 16.3 16.3 17.3 18.3 17.5 16.3 .0 ...

 White

Civilian labor force .................................... 118,845 119,814 120,249 120,195 120,600 120,571 120,842 593 64

 Participation rate............................... 67.1 67.0 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.4 66.4 –.2 ...

Employed .............................................. 114,753 133,923 114,063 114,053 114,140 114,085 114,665 602 101

 Employment-population ratio ............ 64.8 63.7 63.2 63.2 63.1 62.9 63.0 –.2 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 4,092 5,891 6,187 6,142 6,460 6,486 6,177 –10 –37

 Unemployment rate ........................... 3.4 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.1 .0 ...

Black

Civilian labor force .................................... 16,327 16,440 16,627 16,406 16,597 16,608 16,493 –134 –139

 Participation rate............................... 65.6 64.9 64.6 64.3 64.8 64.5 63.8 –.8 ...

Employed .............................................. 15,125 14,824 14,850 14,687 14,769 14,775 14,729 –121 –126

 Employment-population ratio ............ 60.8 58.6 57.7 57.6 57.6 57.4 57.0 –.7 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 1,202 1,615 1,776 1,720 1,828 1,834 1,764 –12 –13

 Unemployment rate ........................... 7.4 9.8 10.7 10.5 11.0 11.0 10.7 .0 ...

 Hispanic origin

Civilian labor force .................................... 16,943 17,607 18,150 18,595 18,794 18,830 19,033 883 198

 Participation rate............................... 69.7 69.5 68.9 68.6 68.6 68.0 67.9 –1.0 ...

Employed .............................................. 15,996 16,303 16,724 17,151 17,296 17,362 17,683 959 523

 Employment-population ratio. ........... 65.8 64.4 63.5 63.3 63.1 62.7 63.1 –.4 ...

Unemployed .......................................... 947 1,304 1,426 1,444 1,498 1,468 1,350 –76 –326

 Unemployment rate ........................... 5.6 7.4 7.9 7.8 8.0 7.8 7.1 –.8 ...

Change,

fourth quarter,

2002, to

fourth quarter,

20031

Change

adjusted

 for

population

revisions

Characteristic

1

Data in this column may differ from data in the text because the data in

the text were “smoothed” to adjust for revisions to population controls in

January 2003 and January 2004. The technique used to smooth these series

is discussed in Marisa Di Natale, “Creating Comparability in CPS Employment

Series,” unpublished paper appearing on the BLS website, http://

www.bls.gov/cps/cpscomp.pdf, December 2003.

NOTE: Beginning in 2003, data reflect revised population controls.

Details for race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals, because

data for the “other races” group are not presented and Hispanics are

included in both the white and black population groups.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

2000 2001 2002

Fourth quarter

Quarter

I

Quarter

II

Quarter

III

Quarter

IV
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 13

employment level for Hispanics dropped by 326,000. The unemployment rate for Hispanics fell by 0.8 percentage point, to 7.1

percent, between the third and fourth quarters of 2003, after having stayed flat throughout the first three quarters of the year. The

unemployment rate for whites was about unchanged over the

year and stood at 5.1 percent in the fourth quarter.

The labor force participation rates for most of the major

age groups dropped markedly during the latest recession and

during the initial recovery, relative to the previous recession

in the early 1990s.32 (See chart 5.) The sharpest decline in the

participation rate during the most recent period occurred

among youths 16 to 24 years of age. Women in the prime

working-age group, 25 to 54 years, also experienced a large

decline in their participation rate relative to their change in

participation during the early 1990s. The labor force participation rate for women in that age group increased during the

previous downturn of 1990–92 and decreased during the most

recent recession and recovery period.33

 These data are supported by Social Security Administration data which show that the number of women under age 55

who received Social Security disability benefits more than

doubled over the same period.

For further discussion of these women’s declining participation rates, see Steven Hipple, “Labor Force Participation during Recent Labor Market Downturns, “Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 03–03, September 2003.

 The lone exception to the trend of declining labor force

participation has been among persons aged 55 and older. This

group’s participation rate increased by 3.2 percentage points

over the most recent period, compared with a decrease of 0.7

percentage point during the previous recession.

Workers at most education levels experienced little change

in their unemployment rates over the year, except for high

school graduates without college-level training.

34 At 8.5 percent, the unemployment rate of persons with less than a high

school diploma was higher than that of persons with more

education. (See chart 6.) In the fourth quarter of 2003, persons

with a bachelor’s degree or higher had an unemployment rate

of 3.0 percent, a figure that was unchanged over the year after

having doubled between 2000 and 2002. The 4.7-percent unemployment rate of those with some college training, but without a

degree, also was little changed over the year. The only group for

whom the unemployment rate rose over the year—by 0.3 percentage point, to 5.5 percent—was high school graduates with

no college. The rate for this group reached a peak of 5.6 percent

during the second quarter of 2003. (See table 3.)

Large employment gains in professional occupations and

in installation, maintenance, and repair occupations accounted for much of the employment growth over the year.

Employment in professional and related occupations grew by

840,000 during 2003.35 (See table 4.) The occupations within

this category that experienced the largest employment increases were education, training, and library occupations and

health-care practitioner and technical occupations. The gains

in these occupations were shared by both women and men.

Life, physical, and social science occupations also saw small

increases in employment. The other occupations within the

professional category were little changed over the year.

Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations posted an over-the-year employment increase of

693,000. While all the components of this group rose over the

year, about three-fifths of the gain occurred in installation,

maintenance, and repair occupations.

The gains described for the preceding occupation groups

were partly offset by relatively small employment declines

in production, transportation, and material moving occupations. The number of persons employed in production

occupations fell over the year, accounting for more than

two-thirds of the overall decline in the broad group. The

majority of persons employed in production occupations

work in the manufacturing industry, which continued to

experience substantial job losses in 2003. Employment in

transportation and material moving occupations also declined over the year. Most of these workers are employed

in the transportation industry, a cyclical industry that is

still recovering from the 2001 recession. Employment in

service occupations and in sales and office occupations

was flat over the year.

The number of self-employed persons in nonagricultural

industries rose by 312,000 over the year, to 9.5 million. Since

the official end of the recession in the fourth quarter of 2001,

self-employment has risen by 567,000, or 6 percent. In the

recession of 1990–91, by contrast, self-employment was unchanged 2 years after the official end of the recession in the

first quarter of 1991. (See chart 7.)

The number of persons working part time involuntarily increased in the second half of 2003, pointing to labor

underutilization other than unemployment. One measure of

underutilized labor is the number of persons who are working

part time involuntarily, also referred to as those working part

time for economic reasons. These individuals are persons who

prefer a full-time job, but who cannot work full time due to

slack work or business conditions or because they can find

only part-time work. Over the year, the number of persons

who were working part time for economic reasons increased

by 480,000, to a level of 4.8 million. (See chart 8.) This number

has increased by 1.5 million since the fourth quarter of 2000.

The measure of persons working part time involuntarily is

sensitive to business cycles, and the level increased more,

proportionately, during the recession of 2001 than in the previous recession.
14 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Table 3. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 25 years and older, by educational attainment,

 quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 2000–03

[Numbers in thousands]

Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter

 I II III IV

 Total civilian noninstitutional population1 ..... 179,144 181,025 183,049 184,373 184,927 185,572 186,210 3,161

Less than a high school diploma:

 Civilian noninstitutional population1 .................... 28,580 28,402 27,989 28,490 28,303 27,808 28,021 32

 Percent of total population .............................. 16.0 15.7 15.3 15.5 15.3 15.0 15 –.2

 Civilian labor force .............................................. 12,531 12,666 12,530 12,678 12,629 12,572 12,716 186

 Percent of population ...................................... 43.8 44.6 44.8 44.5 44.6 45.2 45.4 .6

 Employed ............................................................ 11,742 11,655 11,415 11,574 11,494 11,449 11,635 220

 Employment-population ratio ........................... 41.1 41.0 40.8 40.6 40.6 41.2 41.5 .7

 Unemployed ........................................................ 789 1,011 1,115 1,104 1,135 1,123 1,081 –34

 Unemployment rate .......................................... 6.3 8.0 8.9 8.7 9.0 8.9 8.5 –.4

High school graduate, no college:2

 Civilian noninstitutional population1 .................... 58,728 58,616 59,497 59,422 59,220 59,432 59,844 347

 Percent of total population .............................. 32.8 32.4 32.5 32.2 32.0 32.0 32.1 –.4

 Civilian labor force .............................................. 37,703 37,424 37,900 37,794 37,943 37,931 38,029 129

 Percent of population ...................................... 64.2 63.8 63.7 63.6 64.1 63.8 63.5 –.2

 Employed ............................................................ 36,378 35,590 35,934 35,771 35,803 35,881 35,951 17

 Employment-population ratio ........................... 61.9 60.7 60.4 60.2 60.5 60.4 60.1 –.3

 Unemployed ........................................................ 1,326 1,834 1,966 2,023 2,140 2,050 2,077 111

 Unemployment rate .......................................... 3.5 4.9 5.2 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.5 .3

Less than a bachelor’s degree:3

 Civilian noninstitutional population1 .................... 45,266 46,036 46,648 46,641 46,572 46,974 46,777 129

 Percent of total population .............................. 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.3 25.2 25.3 25.1 –.4

 Civilian labor force .............................................. 33,258 33,818 33,995 34,122 34,181 34,066 33,834 –161

 Percent of population ...................................... 73.5 73.5 72.9 73.2 73.4 72.5 72.3 –.6

 Employed ............................................................ 32,402 32,398 32,367 32,493 32,534 32,420 32,245 –122

 Employment-population ratio ........................... 71.6 70.4 69.4 69.7 69.9 69.0 68.9 –.5

 Unemployed ........................................................ 856 1,421 1,628 1,629 1,647 1,646 1,588 –40

 Unemployment rate .......................................... 2.6 4.2 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.7 –.1

College graduate:

 Civilian noninstitutional population1 .................... 46,570 47,971 48,914 49,820 50,832 51,358 51,568 2,654

 Percent of total population .............................. 26.0 26.5 26.7 27.0 27.5 27.7 27.7 1.0

 Civilian labor force .............................................. 36,866 37,898 38,535 39,147 39,647 39,861 40,518 1,983

 Percent of population ...................................... 79.2 79.0 78.8 78.6 78.0 77.6 78.6 –.2

 Employed ............................................................ 36,299 36,817 37,389 37,968 38,426 38,615 39,283 1,894

 Employment-population ratio ........................... 77.9 76.7 76.4 76.2 75.6 75.2 76.2 –.2

 Unemployed ........................................................ 567 1,081 1,145 1,179 1,221 1,246 1,235 90

 Unemployment rate .......................................... 1.5 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.0 .0

Change,

fourth

quarter,

2002,

to fourth

quarter,

2003

Educational attainment

 Fourth quarter 2003

Broad measures of underutilization changed little over the

year; the numbers of marginally attached and discouraged

persons, rose in early 2003, but declined by year’s end. In

addition to estimating the number of persons who are employed and the number who are unemployed, the CPS provides data on persons who are not in the labor force, but who

have some attachment to the job market. The labor force is

defined as the sum of those who are employed and those who

are unemployed, but who are actively seeking work. All other

persons are considered to be outside of the labor force. Among

these persons are some who indicate that they want a job, but

who were not actively searching for work or were unavailable

to take work. The number of persons outside the labor force

who said they wanted a job was little changed over the year,

at about 4.4 million. Another measure of underutilized labor is

the number of persons who are marginally attached to the

labor force. Marginally attached persons, a subset of those

who say they want a job, are those who looked for a job

sometime during the year prior to the survey and who would

be available to take a job if one were offered to them. At 1.5

million, the number of marginally attached persons was up by

98,000 over the year.36 Discouraged workers, a subset of the

marginally attached, are persons who have given up searching for work specifically because they believe that no jobs are

1 The population figures are not adjusted for seasonal variation.

Beginning in 2003, data reflect revised population controls.

2 Includes high school diploma or equivalent.

3 Includes the categories of some college, no degree; and associate’s

degree.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

2000 2001 2002
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 15

Table 4.

[Employment in thousands]

Total Men Women

Total, 16 years

and older....................... $620 136,945 138,625 1,680 1,512 72,889 73,925 1,036 932 64,056 64,700 644 580

Management,

professional, and

related occupations ...... 887 47,142 48,182 1,040 930 23,381 23,756 375 335 23,761 24,426 665 595

 Management, business,

and financial

operations occupations 961 19,586 19,725 139 90 11,420 11,420 0 0 8,166 8,305 139 90

 Professional and related

occupations .................. 845 27,556 28,457 901 840 11,961 12,336 375 350 15,596 16,121 525 490

Service occupations ........ 403 21,985 21,751 –234 –229 9,538 9,259 –279 –274 12,447 12,491 44 43

Sales and office

occupations .................. 545 35,433 35,765 332 263 12,691 13,017 326 259 22,742 22,749 7 6

 Sales and related

occupations .................. 598 16,071 16,313 242 200 8,134 8,270 136 112 7,937 8,044 107 88

 Office and administrative

support occupations .... 523 19,362 19,452 90 64 4,557 4,747 190 134 14,805 14,705 –100 –71

Natural resources,

construction, and

maintenance

occupations .................. 608 13,960 14,671 711 693 13,282 13,993 711 693 678 678 0 0

 Farming, fishing,

and forestry

occupations .................. 369 987 1,078 91 97 764 853 89 95 223 225 2 2

 Construction and

extraction

occupations .................. 599 8,138 8,355 217 207 7,893 8,123 230 219 245 232 –13 –12

 Installation,

maintenance, and

repair occupations ........ 673 4,835 5,238 403 389 4,625 5,017 392 378 210 221 11 11

Production, transportation,

and material moving

 occupations ................. 519 18,424 18,256 –168 –144 13,997 13,900 –97 –83 4,427 4,356 –71 –61

 Production occupations 519 9,896 9,754 –142 –122 6,808 6,740 –68 –58 3,087 3,014 –73 –63

 Transportation and

material moving

occupations .................. 520 8,528 8,502 –26 –21 7,189 7,160 –29 –23 1,340 1,342 2 2

Change

adjusted

for

population

revisions

Median

usual

weekly

earnings

Change

adjusted

for

population

revisions

Change

adjusted

for

population

revisions

Occupation

1 Data in this column may differ from data in the text because the data in

the text were “smoothed” to adjust for revisions to population controls in

January 2003 and January 2004. The technique used to smooth these

series is discussed in Marisa Di Natale, “Creating Comparability in CPS

Employment Series,” unpublished paper appearing on the BLS website, http:/

/www.bls.gov/cps/cpscomp.pdf, December 2003.

Fourth quarter Change, Fourth quarter Fourth quarter

fourth

quarter,

2002,

to fourth

quarter,

20031

Change,

fourth

quarter,

2002,

 to fourth

quarter,

20031

Change,

fourth

quarter,

2002,

to fourth

quarter,

20031

NOTE: Occupations reflect the introduction of the 2002 Census

occupational classification system derived from the 2000 Standard

Occupational Classification system into the Current Population Survey.

Beginning in 2003, data reflect revised population controls.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

available for them. The number of discouraged workers rose

sharply in the first quarter of 2003, but then remained at about

450,000 throughout the year, about 69,000 higher than at the

end of 2002. (See table 5.)

The majority of the unemployed had lost their jobs, although

the number of job losers did not increase over the year. Those

who were unemployed found it increasingly difficult to find

work in 2003, as the average duration of unemployment

was up over the year. The number of newly unemployed persons (those unemployed for 5 or fewer weeks) continued a

downward trend that began in 2002. (See chart 9.) By the

fourth quarter, the number of newly unemployed was 2.7 million, down 200,000 from a year earlier. This group made up just

under one-third of total unemployment at the end of the year.

2002 2003 2002 2003 2002 2003

Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by occupation, annual average, 2003,

and employment by occupation, fourth quarter, not seasonally adjusted, 2002–03
16 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Table 5. Persons not in the labor force, quarterly averages, not seasonally adjusted, 2000–03

[In thousands]

2000 2001 2002 I II III IV

Total not in the labor force ................................ 70,697 72,082 73,549 74,511 74,071 74,527 75,523 1,974

 Persons who currently want a job .................. 4,104 4,383 4,276 4,679 4,980 4,874 4,372 96

 Marginally attached1 ..................................... 1,090 1,353 1,416 1,588 1,432 1,591 1,514 98

 Reasons not currently looking: ................

 Discouragement over job prospects2 .... 246 336 382 458 466 454 451 69

 Reasons other than discouragement3 ... 845 1,018 1,034 1,131 966 1,138 1,064 30

1 Data refer to persons who searched for work during the previous 12

months and were available to take a job during the reference week.

2 Includes “Thinks no work available,” “Could not find work,” “Lacks

schooling or training,” “Employer thinks too young or old,” and “Other types

of discrimination.”

3 Includes those who did not actively look for work in the previous 4

weeks for such reasons as childcare and transportation problems, as well

as a small number for which the reason for nonparticipation was not

determined.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Category

Fourth quarter Change,

fourth

quarter,

2002,

 to fourth

quarter,

2003

Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter

2003

The number of persons who are newly unemployed typically rises at the beginning of a recession, when job losses

start accumulating. After the recession is underway, unemployed persons who are unable to find work swell the ranks of

the long-term unemployed.

The number of persons unemployed for 15 or more weeks

increased by 292,000 over the year, to 3.5 million; the group

made up about 40 percent of the unemployed. A subset of this

group, the long-term unemployed (those unemployed for 27

or more weeks), increased by 197,000 over the year, to 2 million, and made up 23 percent of total unemployment. The 23-

percent figure is the highest proportion of total unemployment that the long-term unemployed have been since the third

quarter of 1983. The average number of weeks unemployed

for all unemployed groups combined rose by 1.7 weeks over

the year, to 19.7 weeks. (See table 6.)

The reasons persons are unemployed afford interesting

insights into the labor market. Historically, most of the unemployed have been persons who have lost their jobs. Since

this series began in 1967, job losers have made up roughly

half of the unemployed. The series is sensitive to business

cycles and has tended to peak during recessions. The proportion of the unemployed who had lost a job began trending

upward in the second quarter of 2000 and continued this upward trend until the fourth quarter of 2001, when the percentage peaked at 55 percent. The proportion has remained at that

level since then. (See chart 10.) By contrast, the number of

persons who were unemployed because they left their jobs is

negatively correlated with business cycles. Workers are less

likely to leave a job when the prospect of finding a new one is

more uncertain. Reentrants follow the same cyclical pattern

as job leavers do over recessions, and new entrants have a

weaker relationship to business cycles. At 2.4 million, the number of reentrants to the labor force was about unchanged, and

the number of new entrants increased by 111,000 over the

year, to 655,000.37 (See table 6.) Reentrants made up 28 percent of total unemployment, and new entrants constituted 7.6

percent. The number of persons unemployed because they

had left a job was 835,000, and these job leavers made up

about 10 percent of the unemployed.

The median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and

salary workers rose over the year, but the increase was offset by rises in consumer prices.

38 From 2002 to 2003, median

weekly earnings for all workers, as measured by the CPS, rose

to $620, an increase of 2.0 percent. However, over the same

period, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

(CPI-U) increased by 2.3 percent. Women’s median earnings

rose 4.3 percent over the year, faster than the men’s 2.4-percent increase; still, women’s earnings were $552, compared

with $695 for men. Over the year, the ratio of women’s earnings to men’s earnings rose to 79.4 percent, up from 77.9 percent in 2002. Since 1979, the year the Bureau began collecting

data on usual weekly earnings, the ratio of women’s to men’s

earnings has increased by 16 percentage points. (Note that

the comparisons of earnings set forth in this section are on a

broad level and do not control for many factors that can be

significant in explaining earnings differences.39)

All the major demographic groups saw earnings growth

over the year, and all groups’ earnings growth outpaced the

rise in consumer prices, except for white men’s. Among

women, blacks had the largest earnings growth, 3.8 percent,

followed by whites, at 3.7 percent. Hispanic women experienced a slightly lower earnings growth of 3.3 percent. Black

men’s earnings grew by 5.9 percent over the year, the largest

increase in earnings among all the demographic groups. His-
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 17

Table 6. Unemployed persons by reason for, and duration of, unemployment, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted,

 2000–03

 [In thousands]

 Reason for unemployment

Job losers and persons who

completed temporary jobs .................. 2,532 4,441 4,785 4,737 4,948 4,944 4,738 –47

 On temporary layoff ........................ 896 1,212 1,101 1,129 1,162 1,125 1,071 –30

 Not on temporary layoff .................. 1,636 3,229 3,685 3,608 3,786 3,819 3,667 –18

Job leavers .......................................... 772 879 847 803 829 808 835 –12

Reentrants ........................................... 1,905 2,239 2,413 2,401 2,556 2,496 2,441 28

New entrants ........................................ 438 502 544 605 637 665 655 111

 Duration of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks .............................. 2,498 3,079 2,861 2,788 2,928 2,741 2,661 –200

5 to 14 weeks ..................................... . 1,784 2,637 2,547 2,563 2,676 2,688 2,530 –17

15 or more weeks ................................ 1,330 2,299 3,163 3,173 3,374 3,544 3,455 292

15 to 26 weeks .................................. 708 1,246 1,379 1,358 1,426 1,532 1,474 95

27 or more weeks .............................. 623 1,053 1,784 1,815 1,948 2,012 1,981 197

Average (mean) duration, in weeks .... 12.5 14.0 18.0 18.4 19.4 19.4 19.7 1.7

Median duration, in weeks ................... 6.1 7.7 9.5 9.6 10.6 10.1 10.4 .9

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Change,

fourth

quarter,

2002, to

fourth

quarter,

2003

2003

Reason and duration

Quarter

II

Quarter

I

 Fourth quarter

panic men’s earnings grew by 2.9 percent, higher than the

white men’s rate of 1.9 percent.

Workers in management, business, and financial operations occupations continued to have the highest median earnings of any intermediate occupation group, $961 per week in

2003. The group also had the second-highest earnings growth

rate over the year, 4.2 percent. Professional and related occupations continued to be the second-highest paid group, with

weekly earnings of $845 in 2003; the group’s earnings increased at a rate of 2.7 percent. All the other occupation groups

had earnings growth rates lower than the increase in consumer prices. The smallest growth rate in earnings, 1 percent,

was among sales and related occupations. (See table 7.)

Among the four major educational attainment groups, high

school graduates with no college and workers with a bachelor’s degree or higher had earnings growth of 3.4 percent

and 2.4 percent, respectively, both figures outpacing the increase in consumer prices.

2000 2001 2002 Quarter

III

Quarter

IV

Labor market conditions were little changed throughout

much of the country in 2003. All four census regions and

about two-thirds of the States and the District of Columbia

recorded unemployment rate shifts of one-half percentage

point or less between the fourth quarters of 2002 and 2003.40

(See box on page 21 for information on the methodologies

used to develop unemployment data for local areas.) Among

the census regions, jobless rates in the Northeast, South, and

West were little changed or down slightly, following 2 years

of increases. (See table 8.) In the Midwest, though, the

unemployment rate ticked up again in 2003. The Midwest has

been the region hardest hit by manufacturing job losses in

recent years, and 2003 marked the fourth consecutive year

during which its unemployment rate rose. In the fourth quarter

of 2003, the South registered the lowest regional jobless rate.

At the same time, the West continued to post the highest rate,

for the 12th straight year.

States. Over the year, unemployment rates were up in 26 States

and the District of Columbia, down in 20 States, and unchanged in 4 States. (See chart 11.) Michigan and Tennessee

experienced the most marked increases in joblessness, 1.2

percentage points and 1 point, respectively. For 10 States,

2003 was the fourth consecutive year during which the

unemployment rate increased relative to the previous year on

a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis. Half of these 10

States were located in the Midwest, including Michigan,

where the jobless rate cumulatively more than doubled during

the 4-year period. The most sizeable unemployment rate

decreases in 2003 were reported by Mississippi and Arizona,

1.1 percentage points and 1 percentage point, respectively.

In the fourth quarter of 2003, Alaska recorded the highest

unemployment rate, 8.1 percent. Michigan, Oregon, and
18 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Over-theyear

change

Fourth

quarter,

2002

 Region and division

 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics. Local Area Unemployment Statistics.

Table 7. Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by selected characteristics, annual

 averages, 2002–03

 Characteristic 2002 2003

 Total, 16 years and older ............................................................... $608 $620 2.0

Management, business, and financial operations occupations ............. 922 961 4.2

Professional and related occupations ..................................................... 823 845 2.7

Service occupations ................................................................................ 396 403 1.8

Sales and related occupations ................................................................ 592 598 1.0

Office and administrative support occupations ...................................... 511 523 2.3

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ............................................ 340 369 8.5

Construction and extraction occupations ............................................... 589 599 1.7

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations ................................. 663 673 1.5

Production occupations ........................................................................... 508 519 2.2

Transportation and material moving occupations .................................... 514 520 1.2

Men .......................................................................................................... 679 695 2.4

Women ..................................................................................................... 529 552 4.3

White ........................................................................................................ 623 636 2.1

Men ......................................................................................................... 702 715 1.9

Women ................................................................................................... 547 567 3.7

Black ........................................................................................................ 498 514 3.2

Men ......................................................................................................... 524 555 5.9

Women ................................................................................................... 473 491 3.8

Hispanic origin ......................................................................................... 424 440 3.8

Men ......................................................................................................... 451 464 2.9

Women ................................................................................................... 397 410 3.3

Less than a high school diploma ............................................................ 388 396 2.1

High school graduate, no college............................................................ 536 554 3.4

Some college or associate's degree ....................................................... 629 639 1.6

Bachelor’s degree or higher .................................................................... 941 964 2.4

 Percent change

NOTE: Earnings figures by educational attainment pertain to persons

aged 25 and older.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Table 8. Unemployment rates for regions and divisions, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 2002–03

Northeast region .......................................... 5.8 5.9 5.9 5.9 5.7 –.1

New England division ............................... 5.1 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 .3

Middle Atlantic division ............................ 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.8 –.2

Midwest region ............................................. 5.6 5.8 5.9 6.0 5.9 .3

East North Central division ...................... 6.0 6.2 6.3 6.4 6.4 .4

West North Central division ..................... 4.7 4.8 5.0 5.1 5.0 .3

South region ................................................. 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.6 –.1

South Atlantic division ............................. 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.3 5.0 –.3

East South Central division ..................... 5.7 5.8 6.1 6.1 5.9 .2

West South Central division .................... 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.7 6.5 .2

West region .................................................. 6.5 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.3 –.2

Mountain division ..................................... 5.7 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.4 –.3

Pacific division ......................................... 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.8 .0

Quarter

I

Quarter

II

Quarter

III

Quarter

IV

2003

[Rates in percent]
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 19

 Table 9. Unemployment rates and changes in rates for selected large metropolitan areas, not seasonally adjusted,

 fourth quarter, 2002–03

Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA ........................ 6.3 .1 6.6 .3

New York, NY ............................................................. 7.6 1.1 7.3 –.3

Chicago, IL ................................................................. 6.5 .8 6.4 –.1

Philadelphia, PA-NJ ................................................ 5.4 .9 5.1 –.3

Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV .................................. 3.4 –.2 3.1 –.3

Detroit, MI ................................................................... 5.7 .5 6.8 1.1

Houston, TX ............................................................... 5.8 1.2 6.2 .4

Atlanta, GA ................................................................. 5.3 1.1 4.2 –1.1

Dallas, TX .................................................................... 6.7 .7 6.2 –.5

Boston, MA-NH .......................................................... 4.7 .9 4.7 .0

Riverside-San Bernardino, CA ........................ 6.0 .8 5.7 –.3

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ .................................................. 5.5 .3 4.2 –1.3

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI ............................ 3.8 .2 4.2 .4

Orange County, CA ............................................... 4.1 .6 3.6 –.5

San Diego, CA .......................................................... 4.4 .8 4.0 –.4

Nassau-Suffolk, NY .............................................. 4.1 .3 4.0 –.1

St. Louis, MO-IL ........................................................ 5.5 .5 5.3 –.2

Baltimore, MD ............................................................ 4.6 –.1 4.6 .0

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA ......................... 6.4 .3 6.3 –.1

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL ........ 4.5 .2 4.0 –.5

Oakland, CA .............................................................. 6.2 1.2 5.6 –.6

Pittsburgh, PA ........................................................... 5.3 1.0 4.7 –.6

Miami, FL ..................................................................... 7.3 –.8 6.5 –.8

Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, OH ............................. 6.0 .6 5.9 –.1

Denver, CO ................................................................. 5.8 .9 5.8 .0

Newark, NJ ................................................................. 6.0 1.0 5.5 –.5

Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA ............................. 7.3 .0 7.2 –.1

Kansas City, MO-KS .............................................. 5.8 1.1 5.3 –.5

San Francisco, CA ................................................. 5.8 .7 4.9 –.9

Fort Worth-Arlington, TX .................................... 5.8 .9 5.5 –.3

San Jose, CA ............................................................ 8.7 1.7 7.1 –1.6

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN ................................................ 4.3 .1 4.5 .2

Orlando, FL ................................................................. 4.9 –.5 4.6 –.3

Sacramento, CA ...................................................... 5.4 1.1 5.4 .0

Fort Lauderdale, FL ............................................... 5.8 –.2 5.1 –.7

Indianapolis, IN ....................................................... 4.5 .6 4.6 .1

San Antonio, TX ...................................................... 5.1 .6 5.0 –.1

Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, 

VA-NC ......................................................................... 3.8 .0 3.8 .0

Las Vegas, NV-AZ .................................................... 5.0 –1.9 4.6 –.4

Columbus, OH ........................................................... 4.3 1.1 4.2 –.1

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI .................................. 5.6 .8 5.2 –.4

Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC .......... 6.1 .4 6.6 .5

Metropolitan area

Washington also posted rates of more than 7 percent. Unemployment rates were little changed or unchanged over the year in

the three Pacific division States (Alaska, Oregon, and

Washington), in contrast to the notable increase in Michigan.

The lowest jobless rates at the close of 2003 were reported by

North Dakota and South Dakota, 3.8 percent each, followed

closely by Virginia and Nebraska, 3.9 and 4 percent, respectively.

Total nonfarm employment increased in 28 States and

decreased in 22 States and the District of Columbia in 2003.41

(See chart 12.) Florida added the most jobs over the year

(131,900). Nevada and Arizona recorded the next-largest job

increases (40,600 and 32,500, respectively). In percentage terms,

the most robust employment expansion occurred in Nevada (3.8

percent), followed at some distance by Hawaii (1.9 percent) and

Florida and Wyoming (1.8 percent each). Alaska, Montana, New

Mexico, North Dakota, and Wyoming are notable for being the

only States that posted at least some job growth during each of

the last 3 years on a fourth-quarter-to-fourth-quarter basis.

NOTE: Data for 2003 have not been benchmarked. Areas are listed in

descending order of population as of July 1, 2002.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment

Statistics.

2002 2003

Unemployment rate Over-the-year change Unemployment rate Over-the-year change

[Rates in percent]
20 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Table 10. Total nonfarm employment and changes in employment for selected large metropolitan areas,

 not seasonally adjusted, fourth quarter, 2002–03

[Numbers in thousands]

Over-the-year change Over-the-year change

Level Percent Level Percent

Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA ........................ 4,052.7 –17.2 –.4 4,014.2 –38.5 –.9

New York, NY ............................................................. 4,177.1 –23.1 –.5 4,124.7 –52.4 –1.3

Chicago, IL ................................................................. 4,153.2 –42.6 –1.0 4,125.4 –27.8 –.7

Philadelphia, PA-NJ ................................................ 2,431.6 3.0 .1 2,434.2 2.6 .1

Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV .................................. 2,836.4 27.7 1.0 2,860.5 24.1 .8

Detroit, MI ................................................................... 2,114.0 –25.7 –1.2 2,062.8 –51.2 –2.4

Houston, TX ............................................................... 2,120.1 -7.9 –.4 2,104.0 –16.1 –.8

Atlanta, GA ................................................................. 2,188.4 .3 .0 2,177.0 –11.4 –.5

Dallas, TX .................................................................... 1,929.2 –38.1 –1.9 1,913.6 –15.6 –.8

Boston, MA-NH .......................................................... 1,983.7 –42.5 –2.1 1,935.0 –48.7 –2.5

Riverside-San Bernardino, CA ........................ 1,085.1 38.1 3.6 1,100.4 15.3 1.4

Phoenix-Mesa, AZ .................................................. 1,623.9 21.0 1.3 1,651.7 27.8 1.7

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI ............................ 1,738.7 –14.5 –.8 1,744.6 5.9 .3

Orange County, CA ............................................... 1,423.6 13.1 .9 1,441.6 18.0 1.3

San Diego, CA .......................................................... 1,244.9 14.6 1.2 1,254.1 9.2 .7

Nassau-Suffolk, NY .............................................. 1,235.6 3.2 .3 1,244.5 8.9 .7

St. Louis, MO-IL ........................................................ 1,313.1 –12.6 –1.0 1,301.5 –11.6 –.9

Baltimore, MD ............................................................ 1,258.6 –7.8 –.6 1,257.3 –1.3 –.1

Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA ......................... 1,356.1 –28.5 –2.1 1,350.1 –6.0 –.4

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL ........ 1,220.2 .5 .0 1,239.0 18.8 1.5

Oakland, CA .............................................................. 1,049.0 .0 .0 1,025.1 –23.9 –2.3

Pittsburgh, PA ........................................................... 1,127.8 –7.9 –.7 1,113.6 –14.2 –1.3

Miami, FL ..................................................................... 1,010.6 –12.3 –1.2 1,014.2 3.6 .4

Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, OH ............................. 1,114.5 –27.9 –2.4 1,120.8 6.3 .6

Denver, CO ................................................................. 1,147.3 –18.3 –1.6 1,143.2 –4.1 –.4

Newark, NJ ................................................................. 1,015.9 –3.7 –.4 1,024.0 8.1 .8

Portland-Vancouver, OR-WA ............................. 943.7 –8.7 –.9 930.5 –13.2 –1.4

Kansas City, MO-KS .............................................. 954.0 –14.0 –1.4 946.9 –7.1 –.7

San Francisco, CA ................................................. 985.0 –38.2 –3.7 949.8 –35.2 –3.6

Fort Worth-Arlington, TX .................................... 785.2 –5.4 –.7 779.9 –5.3 –.7

San Jose, CA ............................................................ 882.6 –74.2 –7.8 848.7 –33.9 –3.8

Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN ................................................ 868.0 –8.7 –1.0 876.5 8.5 1.0

Orlando, FL ................................................................. 920.0 13.4 1.5 940.6 20.6 2.2

Sacramento, CA ...................................................... 750.8 10.3 1.4 758.0 7.2 1.0

Fort Lauderdale, FL ............................................... 716.3 11.8 1.7 727.0 10.7 1.5

Indianapolis, IN ....................................................... 894.5 .5 .1 894.8 .3 .0

San Antonio, TX ...................................................... 730.6 5.8 .8 726.9 –3.7 –.5

Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News,

VA-NC ......................................................................... 730.2 5.2 .7 741.6 11.4 1.6

Las Vegas, NV-AZ .................................................... 804.6 25.4 3.3 839.0 34.4 4.3

Columbus, OH ........................................................... 885.2 –10.0 –1.1 880.4 –4.8 –.5

Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI .................................. 844.4 –6.5 –.8 835.8 –8.6 –-1.0

Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC .......... 833.5 .9 .1 833.7 .2 .0

Employment Employment

Metropolitan area

 Fourth quarter, 2002

Two East North Central division States experienced the

largest total nonfarm employment declines in 2003: Michigan

(70,000) and Ohio (63,600). California, Illinois, Massachusetts,

New York, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, and Texas also shed more

than 30,000 jobs each. On a relative basis, Oklahoma recorded

the sharpest employment contraction (2.2 percent), followed

by Massachusetts (1.8 percent) and Michigan (1.6 percent).

For 17 States, 2003 was the third consecutive year of overthe-year total nonfarm employment losses. In Michigan, New

York, and Ohio, the cumulative declines since the fourth

quarter of 2000 exceed a quarter of a million jobs each.

Metropolitan areas.42 Thirty of the 42 most populous

metropolitan areas saw their unemployment rates fall in 2003.43

(See table 9.) Three areas—Atlanta, Georgia; Phoenix-Mesa,

Arizona; and San Jose, California—registered declines of

 Fourth quarter, 2003

NOTE: Areas are listed in descending order of population as of July 1,

 2002.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Current Employment

Statistics.
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 21

Local Area Unemployment Statistics

The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program uses

multiple methodologies to produce monthly estimates of the

civilian labor force, employment, unemployment, and unemployment rates for areas below the national level, including

census regions and divisions, the States and the District of

Columbia, and metropolitan areas. The same concepts that are

used in the Current Population Survey (CPS) for the Nation as a

whole are applied in the LAUS methodologies, so that data are

conceptually comparable across geographic levels.

The LAUS methodologies vary with the availability of inputs—a relationship that tends to reflect differences in geographic level. A signal-plus-noise modeling approach is used

for areas where data from the CPS can reliably serve as inputs.

Model-based areas include the States and the District of Columbia. Estimates for regions and divisions are aggregated from

the model-based estimates for their constituent States. Because

of the methodological differences, estimates for regions and

divisions may not sum to those for the United States. Metropolitan area estimates are developed through a building-block

approach according to which categories of unemployed workers are classified on the basis of their previous status with

respect to the labor force. Both the model approach and the

building-block approach incorporate administrative data from

the Unemployment Insurance (UI) systems and establishment

payroll data produced by other BLS programs.

more than a full percentage point each. Of the seven areas

where jobless rates rose, only Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill,

North Carolina-South Carolina; and Detroit, Michigan,

experienced increases of one-half percentage point or more.

In the fourth quarter of 2003, unemployment rates were

above 7 percent in New York, New York; Portland-Vancouver,

Oregon-Washington; and San Jose, California. Unlike San

Jose, New York and Portland-Vancouver had rates that were

little changed from a year earlier. At the same time, jobless

rates were below 4 percent in Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport

News, Virginia-North Carolina; Orange County, California;

and Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia-West Virginia. While

Orange County posted a decline of one-half percentage point

from the fourth quarter of 2002, neither of the other two lowrate areas recorded a notable change in rate over the year.

Twenty-two of the most populous metropolitan areas

experienced declines in their total nonfarm employment levels

in 2003. (See table 10.) The heaviest job losses were registered

in New York, New York (52,400); Detroit, Michigan (51,200);

and Boston, Massachusetts-New Hampshire (48,700). For the

third straight year, San Jose, California, reported the steepest

percent decline in employment (3.8 percent), and neighboring

San Francisco had the second-largest contraction (3.6 percent). Boston, Detroit, and Oakland, California, also posted

declines of more than 2 percent in 2003. Eighteen of the 42

most populous metropolitan areas have lost jobs during each

of the past 3 years.

Twenty large metropolitan areas experienced increases in

total nonfarm employment in 2003. The most jobs were added

in Las Vegas, Nevada-Arizona (34,400); Phoenix-Mesa,

Arizona (27,800); Washington, DC-Maryland-Virginia-West

Virginia (24,100); and Orlando, Florida (20,600). In percentage

terms, Las Vegas posted the largest employment expansion

(4.3 percent), followed by Orlando (2.2 percent). Growth rates

of more than a full percentage point were recorded by six

other large areas in 2003. Seven areas—Fort Lauderdale,

Florida; Las Vegas; Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News,

Virginia-North Carolina; Orange County, California; RiversideSan Bernardino, California; Sacramento, California; and San

Diego, California—are notable for having reported employment gains during each of the past 3 years.

Notes

1

 See Martin Feldstein, “There’s no such thing as a ‘jobless’ recovery,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 13, 2003, p. A18; and Greg Ip,

“Economy gained jobs last month as nonfarm payrolls expanded,”

Wall Street Journal, Oct. 6, 2003, p. A3.

2

 American Trucking Association, December 2003 report, vol. 37,

no. 12, and February 2004 report, vol. 38, no. 2.

3

 Data on industrial production are published by the Federal Reserve on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov (visited

February 2004).

4

 Diffusion indexes of employment change measure the dispersion

of employment growth across industries and over a specified time

span. See the 1-month span diffusion index of employment change

produced by the Bureau of Labor Statistics and available on the Internet

at http://www.bls.gov/ces/home.htm (visited February 2004).

5

 See “Beyond the Bubble,” The Economist, Oct. 9, 2003; on the

Internet at http://www.economist.com.

6

 Data on spending and investment are available from the Bureau

of Economic Analysis on the Internet at http://www.bea.gov (visited

February 2004).

7

 See Eric C. Fleming, “U.S. Tech firms increasingly move jobs

overseas,” Barron’s Online, June 30, 2003; and Manjeet Kripalani

and Pete Engardio, “Industrial Management: Outsourcing,” Business

Week, January 20, 2003, p. 70F.

8

 Data on industrial production are available from the Federal Reserve on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov (visited February 2004). Data on trade are available from the U.S. International

Trade Commission’s “Interactive Tariff and Trade Data Web,” on the

Internet at http://dataweb.usitc.gov (visited February 2004). 9

 See Jonathan Weisman, “Tariffs help lift U.S. steel industry, trade

panel reports,” Washington Post, Sept. 21, 2003, p. A12.

10 Data are from the Producer Price Commodities Index for steel mill

products and the Producer Price Industry Index for motor vehicle parts

and accessories. Data are available from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on

the Internet at http://www.bls.gov (visited February 2004).
22 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

11 See Sholnn Freeman, “GM, Ford, win UAW permission to close or sell

eight facilities,” Wall Street Journal, Sept. 22, 2003, p. B2; and “America’s

motor industry: The year of the car,” The Economist, Jan. 4, 2004, p. 47.

12 Data on North American car and truck production are published

by the Automotive News Data Center at www.automotivenews.com.

See also Jeffrey Ball, Lee Hawkins, Jr., and Sholnn Freeman, “Amid

foreign pressure, auto makers, union look to set standardized deal,”

Wall Street Journal, Sept. 8, 2003, p. A2.

13 Data on industrial production for textile mills and textile product

mills are combined. Data on industrial production in each industry are

published by the Federal Reserve on the Internet at http://

www.federalreserve.gov (visited February 2004).

14 Data on trade are available on the Internet at http://

dataweb.usitc.gov visited February 2004).

15 See Edmund L. Andrews, “Textile towns appeal for help but

quotas may not suffice,” New York Times, Nov . 20, 2003, p. C1;

andKen Gepfert, “Maybe NAFTA was actually a good thing for region,”

Wall Street Journal, Sept. 8, 1999, p. F1.

16 See Jim Carlton, “Timber firms hope to smooth rough edges of

cycles,” Wall Street Journal, Aug. 27, 1999, p. B4.

17 See United States Postal Service, “Transformation plan progress

report,” November 2003, available on the Internet at http://

www.usps.com/strategicdirection/_pdf/TP-Progress-Rpt_11-

03.pdf (visited December 2003).

18 See David Litwak, “Automating the front end: increasingly, shoppers are doing the work of cashiers, as more U.S. supermarkets install

self-scanning equipment to help speed patrons through the checkout

lanes,” Grocery Headquarters, Feb. 1, 2003, p. 95; and Deena M.

Amato-McCoy, “The road toward wireless: IT budgets may be tight, but

that is not stopping innovative retailers from taking advantage of

hard returns, increased productivity and cost efficiencies associated

with the latest wireless mobile devices,” Ibid., Aug. 1, 2003, p. 53.

19 See Patricia Callahan and Ann Zimmerman, “Wal-Mart tops

grocery list with supercenter format,” Wall Street Journal, May 27,

2003, p. B1.

20 Data on retail sales are available from the U.S. Census Bureau on

the Internet at http://www.census.gov (visited February 2004). See

RoxAnna Sway, “The department store: headed for the dustbin or

ready to re-energize?” Display and Design Ideas, June 1, 2003, p. 20.

21At midyear 2003, the Federal Government offered State and

local governments assistance with post-September 11, 2001, security

costs. See Jackie Calmes, “States ask: what recovery?” Wall Street

Journal, Dec. 10, 2003, p. A4.

22 See Jackie Calmes, “State tax hikes pick up steam, undermining

Bush stimulus plan,” Wall Street Journal, June 9, 2003, p. A1; Gary S.

Becker, Edward P. Lazear, and Kevin M. Murphy, “The double benefit

of tax cuts,” Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 2003, p. A20.

23 See Calmes, “States ask.”

24 See National Association of Independent Colleges and Universities, “Increase in private college tuition remains steady for 2003–04,”

May 19, 2003; William C. Symonds, “Colleges in Crisis,” Business

Week, Apr. 28, 2003, p. 72; and Sandy Baum, “Affordability in higher

education,” Congressional Testimony by Federal Document Clearing

House, July 10, 2003.

25 See “Healthcare financing: Hospitals leaders urge Congress to

help them care for communities,” Managed Care Weekly Digest, Feb.

3, 2003, p. 4; Stanley B. Siegel, “How to tame healthcare costs,”

Journal of Accountancy, Aug. 1, 2003, p. 83; and Vicki Kemper, “Medicaid feeling the effects of the States’ fiscal crisis,” Los Angeles Times,

Sept. 23, 2003, p. A13.

26 See J. Lynn Lunsford, “Trends: aviation; bigger planes, smaller

planes, parked planes,” Wall Street Journal, Feb. 9, 2004, p. R4.

27 Data on retail sales are available from the U.S. Census Bureau on

the Internet at http://www.census.gov (visited February 2004).

28 Data on the sale of new homes are available from the U.S. Census

Bureau on the Internet at http://www.census.gov (visited February

2004). Data on the affordability of housing are available from the

National Association of Realtors on the Internet at http://

www.realtor.org (visited February 2004). Data on refinancing activity are available from the Mortgage Bankers Association of America

on the Internet at http://www.mbaa.org (visited February 2004).

Information on historic mortgage rates is available from Freddie Mac

on the Internet at http://www.freddiemac.com (visited February

2004).

29 Data on the sale of new homes are available from the U.S. Census

Bureau on the Internet at http://www.census.gov (visited February

2004). Data on the sale of existing homes are available from the

National Association of Realtors on the Internet at http://

www.realtor.org (visited February 2004).

30 At the time of publication of this article, the latest available data

were for November 2003. The over-the-year sales growth compares

January to November 2002 with January to November 2003. Data on

retail sales are available from the U.S. Census Bureau on the Internet

at http://www.census.gov (visited February 2004).

31 For further discussion of recent trends in teen labor force participation, see Katie Kirkland, “Declining Teen Labor Force Participation,” in Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 02–06 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, September 2002).

32 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the generally

recognized arbiter of business cycle turning points, designated March

1991 as the trough of the recession that began in July 1990. Although

this recession thus officially ended in March 1991, labor market conditions continued to be sluggish until late 1992. NBER also designated

March 2001 as the starting date of the most recent recession and

November 2001 as the end point. Labor market conditions again

remained sluggish well after the official trough of the recession. This

section and the accompanying table compare data for the quarter

containing the NBER-designated peaks with the eighth quarter after the

official NBER troughs.

33 Evidence from the March CPS indicates that the proportion of

women aged 25 to 54 who said that they were out of the labor force

due to an illness or a disability increased from 12.6 percent in 1991 to

21.9 percent in 2001. These data are supported by Social Security

Administration data which show that the number of women under age

55 who received Social Security disability benefits more than doubled

over the same period. For further discussion of these women’s declining participation rates see Steven Hipple, “Labor Force Participation

during Recent Labaor Market Downturns,” Issues in Labor Statistics,

Summary 03–03 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 2003).

34 Data in this section refer to persons aged 25 and older.

35 Data presented in this section were “smoothed “ to adjust for the

 “bump “in the population in January 2003. The technique used to

smooth these series differs from that used for the other series. Here,
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 23

the total effect of the population revision in January 2003 was subtracted from the change from the fourth quarter of 2002 to the fourth

quarter of 2003. The technique for the other series involves wedging

this population effect back to the beginning of the reference period

for the revision.

36 The figure represents the highest fourth-quarter level since 1995.

37 Estimates for these categories are seasonally adjusted independently and do not sum to total unemployment.

38 Data in this section compare 2003 annual averages with 2002

annual averages.

39 See Highlights of Women's Earnings in 2002 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, September 2003) for more information on women’s earnings.

40 The four census regions and the nine divisions they jointly

comprise are composed of the following States and the District of

Columbia:

Northeast: New England division—Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; Middle Atlantic

division—New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania.

Midwest: East North Central division—Illinois, Indiana, Michigan,

Ohio, Wisconsin; West North Central division—Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota.

South: South Atlantic division—Delaware, District of Columbia,

Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia,

West Virginia; East South Central division—Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee; West South Central division—Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas.

West: Mountain division—Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana,

Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming; Pacific division—Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.

41 Total nonfarm employment data are produced by the State and

Area Current Employment Statistics program. (See box on page 4 for

conceptual differences between employment estimates from establishment and household surveys.)

42 The analysis of the metropolitan area data presented in this

article is limited to the 42 areas with a population of 1.5 million or

more as of July 1, 2002. The data reflect metropolitan area standards

and definitions established by the U.S. Office of Management and

Budget on June 30, 1993.

43 Neither unemployment nor total nonfarm employment data are

available on a seasonally adjusted basis at the metropolitan area level.

The estimates presented here are quarterly data that are not seasonally

adjusted, thereby precluding any analysis of over-the-quarter changes.

Unemployment rate data for metropolitan areas are preliminary; revised

estimates for 2003 are scheduled to be issued on May 5, 2004.
24 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Chart 1.

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

Thousands Thousands

NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 IV

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 IV

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 IV

2001 2002 2003

Chart 2.

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

-500

-400

-300

-200

-100

0

100

Thousands

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 IV

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 III

Quarter

 IV

Quarter

 I

Quarter

 II

Quarter

 IV

2001 2002 2003

Thousands

NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.

Quarterly changes in manufacturing employment, 2001–03

Quarterly changes in total nonfarm employment, 2001–03
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 25

Chart 3.

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

Thousands Thousands

NOTE: Data are seasonally adjusted.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics program.

Chart 4.

Unemployment

 rate

NOTE: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Unemployment

 rate

1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Over-the-year changes in government employment, 1990–2003

Unemployment rate, seasonally adjusted quarterly data, 1969–2003
26 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

Chart 5.

 and sex

Percentagepoint change

 Both sexes, 

16 to 24 years

 Men, 

25 to 54 years

 Women, 

25 to 54 years

 Both sexes, 

55 years and older

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

Quarter III, 1990, 

to Quarter I, 1993

Quarter I, 2001, to 

Quarter IV, 2003

Percentagepoint change

Chart 6.

seasonally adjusted, fourth quarters, 1992–2003

Unemployment 

 rate

NOTE: Data from 1994 on are not strictly comparable to data for 1993 and earlier years, due to the CPS redesign. Shaded region 

represents a recession as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Unemployment 

 rate

Less than a high school diploma

High school diploma, no college

Some college or associate's degree

College degree

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1992

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1993

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1994

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1995

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1996

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1997

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1998

Quarter 

 IV, 

 1999

Quarter 

 IV, 

 2000

Quarter 

 IV, 

 2001

Quarter 

 IV, 

 2002

Quarter 

 IV, 

 2003

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Change in labor force participation rate during recent economic downturns,

by age and sex

Unemployment rates of persons aged 25 and older, by educational attainment,

not seasonally adjusted, fourth quarters, 1992–2003
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 27

Chart 7.

Thousands

NOTE: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Beginning in 2000, 

data reflect revised population controls in the CPS and are not strictly comparable to data for earlier years.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

7,500

8,000

8,500

9,000

9,500

10,000

Thousands

Chart 8.

 1970–2003

Thousands

NOTE: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Beginning in 1994, 

data are affected by the redesign of the Current Population Survey and are not strictly comparable to data for prior years.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

5,000

5,500

6,000

6,500

7,000

Thousands

Nonagricultural self-employed workers, seasonally adjusted quarterly data, 1970–2003

Persons employed part time for economic reasons, seasonally adjusted quarterly data,

1970–2003
28 Monthly Labor Review March 2004

Labor Market, 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

0

10

20

30

40

50

Chart 9.

Percent of total 

 unemployed

NOTE: Shaded region represents a recession as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Percent of total

 unemployed

Less than 5 weeks

15 or more weeks 

27 or more weeks

2000 2001 2002 2003

Chart 10.

Percent of total 

 unemployed

NOTE: Shaded region represents a recession as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Percent of total

 unemployed

Job losers

Reentrants

New entrants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Job leavers

2000 2001 2002 2003

Unemployment by duration, seasonally adjusted quarterly data, 2000–03

Percent of unemployed by reason, seasonally adjusted quarterly data, 2000–03
Monthly Labor Review March 2004 29

Click here to type 

bulleted text

Chart 12.

 quarter 2002 to fourth quarter 2003

 SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area

 Current Employment Statistics.

-1.0% to -0.1%

-1.1% and below

1.0% and above

0.0% to 0.9%

West

Midwest Northeast

South

Click here to type 

bulleted text

Chart 11.

 quarter 2002 to fourth quarter 2003

 +0.5 point or more

0.0 point to +0.4 point

-0.1 point to -0.5 point

-0.6 point or less

West

Midwest Northeast

South

Over-the-year change in unemployment rates by State, seasonally adjusted,

fourth quarter 2002 to fourth quarter 2003

Percent change in total nonfarm employment by State, seasonally adjusted,

fourth quarter 2002 to fourth quarter 2003