48 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997 Job Growth in 1997

The labor market continued to improve in

1997 as job growth accelerated from the

previous year and unemployment declined. Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by more than 3 million workers and the

unemployment rate fell to 4.7 percent in the fourth

quarter of 1997, the lowest level in nearly 28

years. During this sixth year of job market expansion, earnings growth accelerated and real average hourly earnings of private production or

nonsupervisory workers posted their largest increases in 21 years.

This article summarizes labor market developments for 1997 and describes the economic

context in which these developments occurred.

Unless otherwise noted, the data presented are

quarterly averages, and 1997 changes represent

the difference between the fourth quarters of 1996

and 1997.

Overview

The U.S. economy expanded at a solid pace in

1997. The gross domestic product, or GDP, adjusted for inflation grew by 3.8 percent over the

year, much faster than in 1996. (See table 1.) Almost every sector of the economy showed improvement in 1997. For most of the year, consumers reacted to a strong job market and rising

personal incomes by increasing their expenditures on goods and services. The consumer confidence index advanced by nearly 17 percent to

record levels by yearend. Consumers also benefited from modest price increases; in 1997, the

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers

(CPI-U) rose by just 1.9 percent, a very small advance by historical standards. The housing market also continued to show strength in 1997, although the pace of new home sales slowed

somewhat from 1996.

Industry employment

The U.S. job market remained strong throughout

1997. (See chart 1 and table 2.) The annual rate

of employment growth as measured by the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey was 2.5

percent, four-tenths of a percentage point above

that posted a year earlier.

By the end of 1997, the nonfarm job market

had completed nearly 6 years of uninterrupted

growth. Following the 1990–91 recession,1 employment floundered for a year before turning

upward in 1992.Job growth then accelerated until peaking in 1994, when 3.8 million jobs were

added. Employment growth slowed in 1995, but

strengthened slightly in 1996.

Employment growth accelerated again in 1997

and nonfarm payrolls increased by more than 3

million workers, although the pace of job growth

varied considerably across industries.2 Nine of

seventy-three major industry groups added more

than 100,000 workers. On the other hand, five industries each lost at least 10,000 workers, and

employment in these industries fell by a combined 124,000. The Federal Government and the

apparel and other textiles industry accounted for

more than two-thirds of these losses. The industries with the greatest employment gains and

losses for the year are shown in table 3.

Strong job growth continues,

unemployment declines in 1997

The unemployment rate fell to a 28-year low

last year, as job growth accelerated;

real earnings reached their highest level yet in the 1990s

Randy E. Ilg

and

Angela Clinton

Randy E. Ilg and

Angela Clinton are

economists in the

Office of Employment

and Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 49

More than half of the major industry divisions experienced

accelerated job growth when compared with 1996.3 In contrast, employment expansion for retail trade and construction

decelerated in 1997. The following discussion groups the

major industry divisions according to their growth in 1997

compared with 1996. Within each division, specific industries with notable employment gains or losses are discussed.

Accelerated growth. Manufacturing exhibited the most dramatic change in trend in 1997. The industry division added

192,000 workers, following a loss of 44,000 during the previous year. In addition, the average workweek of production

workers increased slightly to 42.1 hours, extremely long by

historical standards. Factory overtime hours reached an alltime high of 4.9 hours.

The majority of manufacturing job gains occurred in the

durable goods industries, in which employment growth continued nonstop from the fourth quarter of 1996 until the end

of 1997. Two industries—transportation equipment and industrial machinery and equipment—added more than 65,000

workers each to payrolls.Growth in each industry was sharply

higher than in 1996.

Motor vehicles and equipment and aircraft and parts account for all of the job growth in transportation equipment

manufacturing. Employment in motor vehicles rebounded

from a decline in 1996 and grew by 26,000, about the same as

in 1995. Aircraft and parts accounts for less than 30 percent

of employment in the transportation equipment industry, yet

contributed over 60 percent of the job growth in 1997.It was

the second year of employment expansion in aircraft and parts

and followed job losses over the 6 years prior to 1996. Analysts have attributed recent strength to rising orders for aircraft from the private sector, despite shortages of parts and

skilled labor.4

In contrast to the robust job performance of durable goods

manufacturing, nondurables manufacturing continued to post

job losses, although at a slower pace. The apparel and other

textiles and textile mill products industries shed a combined

total of 61,000 workers in 1997. The former lost the greatest

number of jobs among all industries and the latter, the third

largest number. However, employment declines in both industries decelerated in 1997, compared with the prior 2 years.

Five other major industry divisions had faster growth in

1997 than in 1996—services; government; wholesale trade;

finance, insurance, and real estate; and transportation and

public utilities.

Employment in the services industry division grew at a

slightly faster pace than in 1996, adding more than 1.3 million workers in 1997. This increase represented both the fastest growth rate and the greatest number of jobs added in any

industry division in 1997. Nevertheless, slower employment

growth occurred in slightly more than half of the industries

within services, including its largest component, health services. Strength in amusement and recreation services, legal

services, private educational services, social services, and

engineering and management services offset slower growth

in other industries within services.

Employment growth accelerated in engineering and management services, which was the third largest generator of

jobs in 1997. Over 40 percent of the gain occurred in management and public relations services, which added 78,000

workers. Employment in these establishments has expanded,

on average, by over 7 percent annually since 1988, the first

year for which data are available.Job growth was more than 1

percentage point above that average in 1997. Employment in

engineering and architectural services also grew more rapidly

than it had in 1996, posting a net increase of 44,000 workers.

Amusement and recreation services generated twice as

many jobs in 1997 as in the previous year. Nearly 80 percent

of the jobs added were in the miscellaneous component, which

includes a hodge-podge of recreation services such as amusement parks, golf clubs, and physical fitness centers.

Employment growth in business services advanced at the

same rate as in 1996, 5.8 percent, and the industry continued

to produce more jobs in 1997 than any other single industry.

This industry contributed 14 percent of the total nonfarm employment increase, more than twice its “fair share” of job

growth.

Two sectors of business services—computer and data processing services and miscellaneous business services—expanded more rapidly than in 1996. Computer and data proPercent change in selected economic

indicators, fourth-quarter averages,

1994–971

Indicator 1994–95 1995–96 1996–97

Nonfarm employment ............... 2.0 2.1 2.5

Real gross domestic

product 2 ................................. 2.0 2.8 3.8

Gross private domestic

investment2 ............................. 1.6 7.8 11.5

Real disposable personal

income2 ................................... 3.3 2.3 2.9

Personal consumption

expenditures2 .......................... 2.4 2.6 3.3

Home mortgage interest

rate3 ........................................ –17.7 3.9 –6.4

New home sales ....................... 3.4 11.2 5.7

Sales of existing homes............ –3.9 7.2 8.7

Consumer confidence3 ............. 1.4 11.4 16.6

Industrial production ................. 1.5 4.1 9.9

Inventories-to-sales ratio .......... .4 –1.3 –.7

Consumer Price Index

for All Urban Consumers

(CPI-U) ...................................... 2.6 3.2 1.9

1 Seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise indicated.

2 Annual percent changes, adjusted for inflation.

3 Not seasonally adjusted.

Table 1.
50 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

cessing services added approximately 50,000 more workers

in 1997 than it had over the prior year. Within this industry,

growth occurred in 6 of the 9 components, including computer programming, prepackaged software, computer integrated systems design, and information retrieval services (such

as Internet access).

Employment growth in miscellaneous business service establishments, which provide services such as guards, security

systems, news syndicates, and photofinishing, accelerated

slightly over the year, with the industry gaining 125,000 jobs.

Health services added more than 220,000 workers to payrolls in 1997. Although this increase placed it second in the

list of job gainers numerically, the rate of growth was twotenths of a percentage point below that for all industries combined. On the positive side, hospitals, along with offices and

clinics of medical doctors, accounted for about two-thirds of

the industry’s job gains. Employment growth in hospitals and

doctors’ offices accelerated in 1997. However, the rate of increase fell off in more than half of the health services industries, with the most dramatic slowdowns occurring in nursing

and personal care facilities, dentists’ offices, and home health

care services. Employment growth in each was about 1 percentage point less than in 1996. Pressure to cut health care

costs and government investigations into allegations of health

care fraud—along with a moratorium on the entry of new home

health agencies into the medicare program prompted by the

investigations—may have contributed to the slow growth in

1997.5

Government added approximately 266,000 workers in 1997.

Continued declines in the Federal Government offset, in part,

employment expansion in State and local governments. Most

of the job growth occurred in local government (255,000),

which boosted employment in its education component by

about 160,000 for a second year. As the following tabulation

shows, schools have added relatively more employees than students almost every year through both the 1980s and 1990s,

and the student-to-employee ratio continued to tick down in

1997:

Student-toEnrollment6 Employment7 employment

(thousands) ratio

1982 ....................... 39,565 5,075 7.80

1989 ....................... 40,543 5,906 6.86

1992 ....................... 42,823 6,232 6.87

1993 ....................... 43,465 6,372 6.82

1994 ....................... 44,109 6,516 6.77

1995 ....................... 44,912 6,629 6.78

1996 ....................... 45,700 6,796 6.72

1997 ....................... 46,353 6,957 6.66

In contrast to job growth at the local level of government,

Federal employment decreased by 40,000. Employment in

Federal Government agencies, excluding the Postal Service,

has been falling since the second quarter of 1992, and stands

at its lowest level since 1966. (See chart 2.)

In 1997, more than two-thirds of the nonpostal employment loss in the Federal Government can be traced to the U.S.

Department of Defense. The Department’s civilian workers

accounted for 55 percent of nonpostal Federal employment

during the 1960s, but their proportion declined to less than 40

percent in 1997. In fact, Defense losses of civilian workers

account for 65 percent of all nonpostal Federal employment

declines since 1992, as indicated below:

1992–97 ............. –336 –218 65

1992–93 ................. –50 –47 94

1993–94 ................. –75 –45 60

1994–95 ................. –75 –46 61

1995–96 ................. –77 –39 51

1996–97 ................. –59 –41 69

Establishments engaged in the wholesale trade of durable

goods have enjoyed 5 consecutive years of employment

growth.In 1997, the number of workers in this industry group

rose by 147,000, or 3.8 percent.Three wholesale trade industries—professional and commercial equipment; electrical

goods; and machinery, equipment, and supplies—expanded

by more than 30,000 workers each. Employment growth for

the latter two industries accelerated compared to 1996.

Finance, insurance, and real estate added 50,000 more

workers to payrolls in 1997 than during the year before. Employment growth in most of finance and insurance gained

momentum in 1997, while real estate added about the same

number of workers as in 1996.

After reaching a trough in 1995, employment in finance

experienced substantial growth in 1996, and was even more

robust in 1997. Security and commodity brokers account for

less than 20 percent of finance employment, but added nearly

40 percent of job gains over the year. In contrast, depository

institutions, with nearly 60 percent of the employment in finance, accounted for less than 25 percent of the growth in

1997. Despite slower-than-average growth, employment in

depository institutions more than doubled the increases posted

the year before.Job growth in mortgage bankers and brokers

was well above the national average, but fell short, by half, of

gains made in 1996. The pattern of employment increase in

this industry over the past 2 years has paralleled that in construction, a related industry.

Transportation and public utilities was the third fastest

growing industry division behind services and construction in

Federal Government,

except Postal Service

(in thousands)

 Department of Defense

Number

(in

thousands)

Percent of

Federal, except

Postal Service
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 51

Chart 1. Total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1982–97

Chart 2. Federal (except Postal Service) employment, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1965–97

Thousands Thousands

NOTE: Shaded areas denote recessionary periods, as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

80

90

100

110

120

130

80

90

100

110

120

130

1965

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

2

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

Millions Millions

Fourth-quarter 1997: 1.828 million

First-quarter 1966: 1.820 million
52 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–97

[Numbers in thousands]

Total nonfarm .................................. 115,609 117,949 120,452 121,138 121,854 122,575 123,481 3,029 2.5

Total private ................................. 96,380 98,610 100,953 101,598 102,259 102,829 103,716 2,763 2.7

Goods-producing ....................... 24,157 24,293 24,509 24,635 24,694 24,750 24,895 386 1.6

Mining ..................................... 595 574 571 573 574 574 573 2 .4

Metal mining .......................... 49 52 54 54 54 54 53 –1 –1.9

Coal mining ........................... 110 101 94 93 93 91 90 –4 -4.3

Oil and gas extraction............ 331 316 316 318 320 322 322 6 1.9

Nonmetallic minerals,

except fuels ......................... 105 105 107 108 108 108 107 0 .0

Construction ............................ 5,086 5,231 5,494 5,585 5,616 5,635 5,687 193 3.5

General building

contractors .......................... 1,209 1,219 1,273 1,294 1,300 1,306 1,326 53 4.2

Heavy construction,

except building .................... 745 758 772 781 770 762 762 –10 –1.3

Special trade

contractors .......................... 3,132 3,254 3,450 3,510 3,547 3,566 3,599 149 4.3

Manufacturing ......................... 18,476 18,488 18,444 18,476 18,504 18,541 18,636 192 1.0

Durable goods ....................... 10,581 10,707 10,791 10,835 10,870 10,940 11,018 227 2.1

Lumber and wood

products ............................ 767 772 787 793 799 797 802 15 1.9

Furniture and fixtures .......... 512 507 504 507 507 508 511 7 1.4

Stone, clay, and glass

products ............................ 537 538 542 543 540 541 542 0 .0

Primary metal industries ..... 708 712 707 708 709 711 717 10 1.4

Fabricated metal

products ............................ 1,415 1,438 1,457 1,462 1,469 1,473 1,485 28 1.9

Industrial machinery

and equipment .................. 2,015 2,097 2,116 2,131 2,147 2,163 2,182 66 3.1

Computer and office

equipment ....................... 350 359 365 370 377 383 385 20 5.5

Electronic and other

electrical equipment .......... 1,595 1,641 1,649 1,645 1,646 1,661 1,674 25 1.5

Electronic components

and accessories .............. 556 599 609 612 623 636 649 40 6.6

Transportation

equipment ......................... 1,790 1,765 1,789 1,805 1,812 1,840 1,861 72 4.0

Motor vehicles and

equipment ....................... 947 972 960 966 961 974 986 26 2.7

Aircraft and parts .............. 469 431 475 487 499 513 521 46 9.7

Instruments and related

products ............................ 849 845 855 854 855 858 861 6 .7

Miscellaneous

manufacturing

industries ........................... 392 390 386 387 387 387 383 –3 –.8

Nondurable goods ................... 7,894 7,781 7,653 7,641 7,633 7,601 7,618 –35 –.5

Food and kindred

products .............................. 1,678 1,701 1,687 1,696 1,695 1,684 1,699 12 .7

Tobacco products .................. 42 42 42 42 41 40 41 –1 –2.4

Textile mill products ............... 681 645 617 613 608 606 603 –14 –2.3

Apparel and other textile

products .............................. 976 903 844 831 819 808 797 –47 –5.6

Paper and allied products ...... 695 689 679 678 676 675 677 –2 –.3

Printing and publishing .......... 1,543 1,544 1,536 1,534 1,546 1,548 1,551 15 1.0

Chemicals and allied

products .............................. 1,046 1,036 1,028 1,028 1,029 1,024 1,029 1 .1

Petroleum and coal

products .............................. 150 142 141 139 139 138 137 –4 –2.8

Rubber and miscellaneous

plastics products ................. 972 978 985 987 988 989 994 9 .9

Leather and leather

products .............................. 111 102 94 94 93 90 89 –5 –5.3

Service-producing ..................... 91,452 93,656 95,943 96,504 97,159 97,825 98,586 2,643 2.8

Table 2.

Number Percent

Fourthquarter

1994

Fourthquarter

1995

Fourthquarter

1996 First

quarter

Second

quarter

Fourth

quarter

Change, fourth-quarter

1996 to fourth-quarter

1997

Third

quarter

1997

Industry
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 53

Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–97

[Numbers in thousands]

Table 2.

Transportation and public

utilities ................................... 6,060 6,185 6,295 6,377 6,429 6,402 6,494 199 3.2

Transportation ....................... 3,830 3,956 4,072 4,142 4,186 4,161 4,239 167 4.1

Railroad transportation ........ 241 236 229 227 227 227 228 –1 –.4

Local and interurban

passenger transit ............... 408 425 447 453 458 461 460 13 2.9

Trucking and

warehousing ...................... 1,555 1,605 1,646 1,664 1,683 1,701 1,705 59 3.6

Water transportation ............ 174 174 173 175 177 177 177 4 2.3

Transportation by air ............ 1,047 1,094 1,138 1,179 1,192 1,143 1,214 76 6.7

Pipelines, except natural

gas .................................... 17 15 14 14 14 14 14 0 .0

Transportation services ....... 388 407 424 430 435 438 441 17 4.0

Communications and public

utilities ................................. 2,230 2,229 2,223 2,235 2,242 2,241 2,255 32 1.4

Communications ................. 1,306 1,325 1,346 1,359 1,371 1,375 1,392 46 3.4

Electric, gas, and

sanitary services ............... 924 904 877 876 871 866 864 –13 –1.5

Wholesale trade ...................... 6,262 6,407 6,549 6,591 6,629 6,675 6,728 179 2.7

Durable goods ....................... 3,625 3,746 3,846 3,877 3,909 3,952 3,993 147 3.8

Nondurable goods ................. 2,637 2,662 2,702 2,714 2,720 2,723 2,735 33 1.2

Retail trade .............................. 20,832 21,312 21,850 21,928 22,045 22,188 22,352 502 2.3

Building materials

and garden supplies ............ 855 870 909 918 930 928 931 22 2.4

General merchandise

stores .................................. 2,655 2,686 2,762 2,764 2,795 2,814 2,843 81 2.9

Department stores .............. 2,319 2,354 2,420 2,429 2,449 2,466 2,493 73 3.0

Food stores ........................... 3,309 3,393 3,464 3,476 3,483 3,505 3,520 56 1.6

Automotive dealers and

service stations ................... 2,151 2,211 2,300 2,311 2,317 2,325 2,341 41 1.8

New and used car

dealers .............................. 980 1,006 1,045 1,053 1,055 1,057 1,061 16 1.5

Apparel and accessory

stores .................................. 1,151 1,105 1,107 1,105 1,100 1,100 1,109 2 .2

Furniture and home

furnishings stores ................ 921 953 1,011 1,022 1,031 1,045 1,061 50 4.9

Eating and drinking places .... 7,171 7,422 7,532 7,544 7,579 7,628 7,655 123 1.6

Miscellaneous retail

establishments .................... 2,620 2,673 2,764 2,787 2,810 2,843 2,891 127 4.6

Finance, insurance,

and real estate ...................... 6,853 6,820 6,951 6,981 7,027 7,069 7,132 181 2.6

Finance ................................. 3,265 3,240 3,336 3,357 3,388 3,415 3,458 122 3.7

Depository institutions ......... 2,050 2,018 2,029 2,034 2,043 2,048 2,059 30 1.5

Commercial banks ............ 1,479 1,461 1,473 1,480 1,487 1,491 1,499 26 1.8

Savings institutions ........... 292 271 257 255 253 252 251 –6 –2.3

Nondepository

institutions ......................... 468 479 530 532 541 549 559 29 5.5

Mortgage bankers

and brokers ..................... 221 213 238 241 243 246 252 14 5.9

Security and commodity

brokers .............................. 522 532 565 576 585 596 610 45 8.0

Holding and other

investment offices .............. 225 211 212 215 219 222 231 19 9.0

Insurance .............................. 2,230 2,219 2,220 2,218 2,223 2,231 2,248 28 1.3

Insurance carriers ............... 1,543 1,519 1,507 1,503 1,504 1,510 1,522 15 1.0

Insurance agents,

brokers, and services ........ 687 700 713 715 719 721 725 12 1.7

Real estate ............................ 1,357 1,360 1,395 1,406 1,416 1,423 1,426 31 2.2

Services .................................. 32,217 33,593 34,800 35,086 35,436 35,745 36,115 1,315 3.8

Agricultural services .............. 579 592 637 648 667 676 686 49 7.7

Hotels and other lodging

places .................................. 1,639 1,676 1,732 1,745 1,751 1,750 1,760 28 1.6

Personal services .................. 1,145 1,164 1,194 1,196 1,188 1,185 1,190 –4 –.3

Number Percent

Fourthquarter

1994

Fourthquarter

1995

Fourthquarter

1996 First

quarter

Second

quarter

Fourth

quarter

Change, fourth-quarter

1996 to fourth-quarter

1997

Third

quarter

1997

Industry
54 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

1997, adding about 200,000 jobs to payrolls.Three industries

within this division—trucking and warehousing, transportation by air, and communications—accounted for approximately 90 percent of over-the-year job growth.

Transportation by air, a rapidly expanding industry, experienced a major work stoppage that affected the August 1997

employment data. Approximately 185,000 workers in the air

courier industry were on strike for 16 days in August and remained off payrolls for the entire survey week. Most of the

strikers had returned to work by the following September survey period. In response to the strike, about 11,000 workers

were added in other transportation companies and in the U.S.

Postal Service during this period.

In contrast to strength in the transportation and communications industries, employment in electric, gas, and sanitary

services continued to decline for a sixth straight year, but losses

in 1997 were about half those recorded in 1996. Restructuring

resulting from deregulation, along with mergers and acquisitions, helped to pull down employment levels over the year.

Slowing growth. Retail trade accounted for more than 15

percent of total nonfarm employment gains over the year

Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–97

 [Numbers in thousands]

Table 2.

Business services ................. 6,526 6,997 7,405 7,525 7,619 7,690 7,836 431 5.8

Services to buildings ........... 872 891 897 895 903 899 905 8 .9

Personnel supply

services ............................. 2,394 2,530 2,713 2,763 2,748 2,754 2,818 105 3.9

Help supply services ......... 2,125 2,235 2,398 2,439 2,412 2,414 2,475 77 3.2

Computer and data

processing services .......... 1,000 1,146 1,246 1,279 1,322 1,361 1,402 156 12.5

Auto repair, services, and

parking ................................ 990 1,041 1,108 1,122 1,133 1,140 1,152 44 4.0

Miscellaneous repair

services ............................... 345 365 379 380 384 388 389 10 2.6

Motion pictures ...................... 456 503 529 530 532 546 553 24 4.5

Amusement and recreation

services ............................... 1,354 1,430 1,481 1,493 1,535 1,569 1,584 103 7.0

Health services ..................... 9,079 9,328 9,550 9,599 9,663 9,713 9,772 222 2.3

Offices and clinics of

medical doctors ................. 1,568 1,637 1,699 1,718 1,736 1,748 1,770 71 4.2

Nursing and personal care

facilities ............................. 1,663 1,708 1,745 1,751 1,761 1,764 1,767 22 1.3

Hospitals ............................. 3,760 3,785 3,834 3,846 3,863 3,884 3,910 76 2.0

Home health care

services ............................. 589 652 672 677 683 685 683 11 1.6

Legal services ....................... 923 921 938 944 952 959 968 30 3.2

Educational services ............. 1,907 1,988 2,039 2,045 2,066 2,096 2,119 80 3.9

Social services ...................... 2,265 2,364 2,424 2,438 2,466 2,498 2,517 93 3.8

Child day care services ....... 539 564 576 579 586 597 596 20 3.5

Residential care .................. 621 653 681 687 696 704 712 31 4.6

Museums and botanical and

zoological gardens .............. 79 82 86 87 88 88 89 3 3.5

Membership organizations .... 2,112 2,162 2,190 2,192 2,201 2,206 2,205 15 .7

Engineering and

management services ......... 2,633 2,774 2,894 2,926 2,975 3,025 3,077 183 6.3

Engineering and

architectural services ....... 794 824 851 862 872 882 895 44 5.2

Management and public

relations ............................ 743 833 902 918 942 965 980 78 8.6

Government ................................ 19,229 19,339 19,499 19,540 19,594 19,746 19,765 266 1.4

Federal ...................................... 2,854 2,797 2,731 2,716 2,702 2,686 2,691 –40 –1.5

Federal, except Postal

Service .................................. 2,025 1,947 1,874 1,860 1,850 1,831 1,828 –46 –2.5

State government ...................... 4,625 4,624 4,620 4,622 4,637 4,666 4,671 51 1.1

State government education ... 1,907 1,915 1,925 1,929 1,944 1,965 1,968 43 2.2

Other State government .......... 2,718 2,709 2,695 2,693 2,693 2,701 2,703 8 .3

Local government ...................... 11,750 11,918 12,149 12,202 12,256 12,394 12,404 255 2.1

Local government education ... 6,530 6,645 6,806 6,844 6,870 6,980 6,965 159 2.3

Other local government ........... 5,219 5,272 5,342 5,358 5,386 5,413 5,439 97 1.8

Number Percent

Fourthquarter

1994

Fourthquarter

1995

Fourthquarter

1996 First

quarter

Second

quarter

Fourth

quarter

Third

quarter

1997

Industry

Change, fourth-quarter

1996 to fourth-quarter

1997
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 55

(502,000 jobs), but growth slowed modestly compared with

1996. In fact, half of the retail industries posted slower employment growth rates in 1997 than in the prior year.

Job growth in automotive dealers and service stations

slowed by more than 50 percent in 1997. This industry added

only 41,000 workers, compared to nearly 90,000 over the

preceeding year.

Furniture and home furnishings stores and building materials and garden supply retailers, two industries related to new

home sales and construction, experienced significantly slower

employment growth in 1997 compared with the previous year.

Building materials added only about half as many jobs as in

1996.Although employment expansion in furniture stores fell

by 1.2 percentage points from the prior year’s rate, the

industry’s job growth remained stronger than the national

average.

Three industries—eating and drinking places, miscellaneous retail establishments, and general merchandise stores

—contributed about half of total retail job gains; they each

fared somewhat better in 1997 than in the prior year. Eating

and drinking places added 123,000 workers, but the pace of

employment growth was much slower than in the economy in

general. Miscellaneous retail establishments, which account

for just 13 percent of jobs in retail trade, added a quarter of

the net retail employment growth in 1997. This industry is

composed of a wide variety of retail businesses such as pharmacies, liquor stores, and mail-order houses.

Construction was the second-fastest growing industry division in 1997. Nevertheless, this industry division added

about 70,000 fewer jobs than it did in 1996. While still quite

strong, employment expansion was slower within 7 of the 9

segments of special trade contractors, in which construction

jobs are concentrated. Special trade contractors, the third-largest producer of jobs in 1996, ranked only fifth a year later, as

employment growth slowed. This performance is consistent

with economic indicators related to the construction industry.

New home sales, housing completions, and construction expenditures, while still increasing, slowed during 1997 compared with 1996.

Heavy construction lost 10,000 jobs in 1997, compared

with a 14,000 gain the year before. Losses were concentrated

in the construction of bridges, tunnels, and sewer and utility

lines.

The industry comparisons in this section were based on

data from the Current Employment Statistics survey. The following analysis is based on data from the Current Population

Survey (CPS).

The workers: demographic differences

Employment data from the household survey also reflect the

solid job growth that prevailed in 1997. One way to assess

the strength of the labor market is to compare its recent performance with that during a previous business cycle expanEmployment gains and losses in the total nonfarm sector and in selected industries,1 year ending fourth-quarter 1997

Total nonfarm .......................................... 123,481 100.0 3,029 2.5 100.0

Business services .................................. 7,836 6.3 431 5.8 14.2

Health services....................................... 9,772 7.9 222 2.3 7.3

Engineering and management services . 3,077 2.5 183 6.3 6.0

Local government education .................. 6,965 5.6 159 2.3 5.2

Special trade contractors ........................ 3,599 2.9 149 4.3 4.9

Wholesale trade, durable goods ............. 3,993 3.2 147 3.8 4.9

Miscellaneous retail establishments ....... 2,891 2.3 127 4.6 4.2

Eating and drinking places ..................... 7,655 6.2 123 1.6 4.1

Amusement and recreation services ...... 1,584 2.8 103 7.0 3.4

Heavy construction, except building ....... 762 .6 –10 –1.3 –.3

Electric, gas, and sanitary services ........ 864 .7 –13 –1.6 –.4

Textile mill products ................................ 603 .5 –14 –2.3 –.5

Federal Government ............................... 2,691 2.2 –40 –1.5 –1.3

Apparel and other textiles ....................... 797 .6 –47 –5.6 –1.6

Greatest gains

Greatest losses

1Industries with employment gains of 100,000 or more or losses of 10,000 or

more are shown in the table. This comparison covers industries at the 2-digit SIC

level for the private economy, and government activities at the total Federal, State

education and noneducation, and local education and noneducation levels.

Industry

Fourth-quarter 1997

employment

(thousands)

Percent of total

nonfarm

Change, year ending

fourth-quarter 1997

Number (thousands) Percent Percent of total

Table 3.
56 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

Chart 3. Unemployment rates, seasonally adjusted, 82 months after business cycle trough

Chart 4. Long-term unemployment as a proportion of total unemployment, seasonally adjusted, 82 months

 after business cycle trough

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Percent Percent

Number of months

November 1982 to August 1989

March 1991 to December 1997

1 5 9 13 17 21 25 29 33 37 41 45 49 53 57 61 65 69 73 77 81

0

10

20

30

0

10

20

30

Percent Percent

Number of months

November 1982 to August 1989

March 1991 to December 1997
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 57

Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older by sex, age, race, and Hispanic

origin, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1996–97

[Numbers in thousands]

TOTAL

Civilian labor force .......................... 134,944 135,844 136,103 136,379 136,813 1,552

Participation rate ...................... 67.0 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 .1

Employed .................................... 127,787 128,697 129,387 129,723 130,421 2,342

Employment–population ratio ... 63.4 63.6 63.8 63.8 64.0 .6

Unemployed ................................ 7,157 7,147 6,716 6,656 6,392 –791

Unemployment rate .................. 5.3 5.3 4.9 4.9 4.7 –.6

Men, 20 years and older

Civilian labor force .......................... 68,402 68,954 69,085 69,168 69,418 751

Participation rate ...................... 76.9 77.0 77.0 76.9 76.9 .0

Employed .................................... 65,391 65,916 66,255 66,348 66,612 972

Employment–population ratio ... 73.5 73.6 73.8 73.7 73.8 .3

Unemployed ................................ 3,011 3,038 2,830 2,820 2,806 –222

Unemployment rate .................. 4.4 4.4 4.1 4.1 4.0 –.4

Women, 20 years and older

Civilian labor force .......................... 58,633 58,898 59,100 59,342 59,437 802

Participation rate ...................... 60.2 60.4 60.5 60.6 60.5 .3

Employed .................................... 55,817 56,140 56,473 56,788 57,042 1,224

Employment–population ratio ... 57.3 57.5 57.8 57.9 58.1 .8

Unemployed ............................. 2,816 2,757 2,626 2,554 2,394 –423

Unemployment rate .................. 4.8 4.7 4.4 4.3 4.0 –.8

 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years

Civilian labor force .......................... 7,909 7,993 7,919 7,869 7,958 –1

Participation rate ...................... 52.3 52.3 51.7 51.1 51.4 –.8

Employed .................................... 6,579 6,641 6,659 6,586 6,766 145

Employment–population ratio ... 43.5 43.5 43.5 42.8 43.7 .3

Unemployed ................................ 1,330 1,352 1,260 1,282 1,192 –146

Unemployment rate .................. 16.8 16.9 15.9 16.3 15.0 –1.8

White

Civilian labor force .......................... 113,869 114,411 114,596 114,683 115,040 976

Participation rate ...................... 67.4 67.5 67.5 67.4 67.5 .0

Employed .................................... 108,648 109,298 109,802 109,862 110,465 1,641

Employment–population ratio ... 64.3 64.5 64.7 64.6 64.8 .5

Unemployed ................................ 5,222 5,114 4,794 4,821 4,575 –666

Unemployment rate .................. 4.6 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.0 –.6

Black

Civilian labor force .......................... 15,309 15,413 15,413 15,648 15,634 320

Participation rate ...................... 64.4 64.6 64.4 65.1 64.7 .4

Employed .................................... 13,675 13,758 13,846 14,152 14,115 436

Employment–population ratio ... 57.6 57.6 57.8 58.9 58.4 .9

Unemployed ................................ 1,634 1,655 1,567 1,495 1,519 –116

Unemployment rate .................. 10.7 10.7 10.2 9.6 9.7 –1.0

 Hispanic origin

Civilian labor force .......................... 13,118 13,656 13,725 13,869 13,916 446

Participation rate ...................... 67.4 68.1 67.8 68.0 67.6 .0

Employed .................................... 12,065 12,539 12,659 12,815 12,883 492

Employment–population ratio ... 62.0 62.5 62.6 62.8 62.6 .4

Unemployed ................................ 1,053 1,118 1,066 1,054 1,034 –45

Unemployment rate .................. 8.0 8.2 7.8 7.6 7.4 –.6

1Data for 1997 are not strictly comparable with those shown for 1996 because of the introduction of revised population controls in January 1997. (See

text footnote 8.) Estimates of over-the-year change have been adjusted to

correct for this break in series.

NOTE: Detail for race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals because data for the “other races” group are not presented and Hispanics are

included in both the white and black population groups.

Fourthquarter

1996

Characteristic First

quarter

Second

quarter

Third

quarter

Fourth

quarter

Change,

fourth-quarter

1996 to fourthquarter 19971

1997

Table 4.
58 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

sion. Employment grew by 2.0 percent in 1997 (as measured

by the CPS),8 or at about the same rate as that posted during a

similar phase of the 1983–90 expansion.9

The trend in unemployment in 1997 mirrored that observed

during a comparable period of the 1983–90 expansion. The

most striking similarity was evident in the unemployment rate

itself. In the sixth and seventh years following the official

ends of the respective recessions, the unemployment rates

(seasonally adjusted) were of about the same magnitude and

exhibited a very similar, slightly downward, trend. (See chart

3.) The ways in which these points were reached were quite

different, in that labor market conditions were much slower

to improve following the most recent downturn than during

the recession of 1981–82.10

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) maintains two monthly

data series of employment that are independently obtained:

The estimate of total nonfarm jobs, derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, and the estimate of

total employment, derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS).(The CPS also provides information on unemployment whereas, the CES survey does not.) The CES survey is

an employer-based survey that provides data on the number

of jobs within industries, while the CPS is a survey of households that provides data by demographic characteristics,

occupation, and industry. The surveys are largely complimentary.

Employment estimates from the CPS pertain to persons in

any type of work arrangement—including the self-employed

and unpaid workers in family businesses—whereas those

from the CES survey refer only to persons on nonfarm payrolls. As a result, the count of employment from the CPS is

larger than that from the CES survey. Partially offsetting the

higher estimate from the CPS is the fact that it is a count of

persons and, as such, includes individuals only once, regardless of the number of jobs they hold. In contrast, the CES

survey is a count of jobs and includes each job for persons

who work in more than one establishment. It is possible,

though, to make some adjustments to the CPS employment

estimate so that it more closely matches the CES survey data.

A partial reconciliation of the two series is shown in the

table below. It should be noted that the data shown are not

necessarily representative of the difference between the two

surveys at all points in the business cycle. Also, there are

some differences in concepts and definitions that are not possible to quantify. For instance, the CPS provides information

on persons aged 16 and over.By contrast, in the CES survey,

any person who appears on a payroll record, regardless of

age, is counted as employed.

Other differences in the surveys’ methodology and coverage also preclude a perfect reconciliation of the two employment series. For example, the reference period for the

CPS is the week that includes the 12th day of the month,

while, for the CES survey, it is the pay period that includes

the 12th of the month. Obviously, pay periods vary in length

and can be longer than 1 week. It is therefore possible for

the CES survey estimate of employment to reflect a longer

reference period than that used for the CPS.

Finally, coverage in the CPS includes household members

who are part of the civilian noninstitutional population. Persons who are inmates of institutions, such as those confined

in penal or mental facilities, residents of homes for the aged,

and those who are on active duty in the Armed Forces, are

excluded from the CPS. Also, only households that are in the

United States are eligible to be sampled in the CPS. In this

regard, the coverage of the CES survey is broader: uniformed

military personnel who hold civilian jobs are counted in the

CES survey because of their civilian employment, and persons who commute into the United States from Mexico or

Canada and are employed by companies within the United

States are counted as employed in the CES survey estimate.

Reconciling differences in employment estimates from the

Current Population Survey (Household Survey) and the

Current Employment Statistics Survey (Establishment Survey)

Reconciliation of employment estimates from the CPS and the

CES surveys, not seasonally adjusted

[In thousands]

Category Fourth-quarter Over-the1996 1997 year change

CPS employment estimate ..................... 128,166 130,818 2,652

Less: Agricultural employment ......... 3,300 3,245 –55

Nonagricultural:

Self-employed workers .......... 9,063 8,939 –124

Unpaid family workers .......... 137 93 –44

Private household workers ..... 974 929 –45

Unpaid absences from work .. 1,431 1,457 26

Plus: Multiple jobholders .................. 5,419 5,063 –356

Agricultural services ................. 789 777 –12

Adjusted CPS employment .................... 119,469 121,995 2,526

CES survey employment

estimate ............................................. 121,375 124,447 3,072

NOTE: Changes in the household data do not incorporate the effects of the

population controls introduced in January 1997.
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 59

The feature of unemployment in which the current and previous expansions have differed most significantly is long-term

unemployment. In more recent years, the proportion of the

unemployed who had been looking for work for 27 weeks or

longer has continued to be substantially higher than in similar

phases of the 1983–90 expansion. In fact, during 1996 and

1997, long-term unemployment as a percentage of total unemployment ranged from 3 to 7 percentage points higher than

it had at similar points in the business cycle expansion of the

late 1980s. (See chart 4.)

Total employed

Employment. Total employment increased by about 2.3 million in 1997, to a seasonally adjusted level of 130.4 million in

the fourth quarter. The increase in employment in 1997 was

nearly the same as that posted in 1996, with adult women accounting for about 1.2 million of the net change, and men,

about 1 million. Employment of teenagers was up by 145,000

over the year. Among the race-ethnic groups, both Hispanics

and blacks contributed disproportionate shares of the net increase in employment growth in 1997—21 and 19 percent,

respectively. (See table 4.)

The proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population

aged 16 and older who were employed—the employmentpopulation ratio—also continued upward in 1997, increasing

by 0.6 percentage point to 64.0 percent, a historical high.The

ratio for adult women rose by 0.8 percentage point over the

year, while that for adult men edged up by 0.3 percentage

point.The measure was essentially unchanged among teenagers. Among the major race-ethnic groups, the employment–

population ratio for whites increased by 0.5 percentage points

in 1997 to 64.8 percent. The ratio for blacks also rose, from

57.6 to 58.4 percent, and the ratio for Hispanics was little

changed at 62.6 percent.

Employment among full-time workers (those who usually

work 35 hours or more per week at all jobs combined) continued to rise over the year. Consistent with the pattern since

1994, the proportion of total employment attributable to fulltime workers rose over the year, while the share of part-time

employment continued to decline.11 Self-employment as a

share of the total has declined slightly in recent years.

Multiple jobholding. On average, 8 million workers were

multiple jobholders—that is, they held more than one job at a

time—in 1997. The proportion of the total employed who were

multiple jobholders was 6.1 percent. The multiple jobholding

rate has changed little since 1994. As shown in the tabulation

below, more than half of all “moonlighters” in 1997 combined

a full-time job with a part-time one, while about 1 in 5 combined two part-time jobs.12

Percent distribution

Total Men Women

Full-time job and

part-time job ............................ 56.4 62.8 49.1

Two full-time jobs ..................... 3.0 4.0 1.8

All part-time jobs ....................... 21.2 12.3 31.4

Hours vary on one or

more jobs ................................. 19.0 20.5 17.2

Similar proportions of employed men and women held

more than one job, but women who did so were 2–1/2 times as

likely as men to work two or more part-time jobs.

Occupational employment. Recently, there has been some

shift in the distribution of net job growth among the major

occupations. For example, in 1997, managerial and professional specialty occupations, which, over the course of the

1990s, had accounted for a disproportionately large share of

the net increase in employment, grew by only 886,000, and

accounted for about a third of the total increase (seasonally

adjusted, quarterly data). In 1996, employment among managers and professionals rose by 1.4 million and made up over

half of the total increase.

Conversely, employment levels among precision production, craft, and repair workers increased by more than half a

million over the year. The share of the net increase attributable to these workers, 20 percent, was more than 3 times their

contribution in 1996.

It has been widely perceived that so-called “blue-collar”

employment is on the wane, given the lackluster growth in

manufacturing. It also has been suggested that the nature of

what is considered “blue-collar” work has been changing—

that is, that such work has become somewhat less concentrated

in manufacturing.13 Although employment among precision

production, craft, and repair workers and operators, fabricators, and laborers in manufacturing declined significantly during the labor market contraction of the early 1990s, some

of that loss has been recouped in recent years. It is noteworthy, however, that employment in these occupations has

shifted somewhat to other industries, such as construction

and transportation and public utilities, and, to a lesser extent,

services.

Job quality. Although considerable job growth has occurred

in the U.S. economy over the past few years, questions have

been raised as to the “quality” of the employment gains. Recent research into this issue, using earnings as a measure of

job quality for a group of 90 major occupations and industries, reveals that most of the job growth since 1989 occurred

in both higher-paying and lower-paying occupations.14

From 1989 to 1997, total employment increased by 11.3

million to 129.6 million, not seasonally adjusted.A time series

of the employment growth among three earnings groups is pre-
60 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

Chart 6. Real average hourly earnings, 1988–97

Chart 5. Employment growth or decline by earnings group, 1989–97

Percent Percent

NOTE: The percent change shown represents the percent growth (decline) in average employment between the 12 months ending in the 

month indicated and the average employment level in 1989.

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996

December December December December December December December December

–6

–4

–2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

–6

–4

–2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Highest-earnings group Middle-earnings group Lowest-earnings group

1982 dollars 1982 dollars

NOTE: Shaded area denotes recessionary period, as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997

$7.00

$7.25

$7.50

$7.75

$8.00

$7.00

$7.25

$7.50

$7.75

$8.00
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 61

sented in chart 5. The data show the percent change in employment (on a 12-month moving average basis) for each of

the three earnings groups, using the annual average for 1989

as the base.15 Over the entire period, job growth surged by

18.8 percent in the highest-earnings group, twice the increase

recorded in the lowest-earnings group. Employment in the

middle-earnings category was unchanged over the period; this

group had experienced notable declines during the early 1990s.

A more complete understanding of employment developments that transpired between 1989–97 can be obtained by

looking more closely at specific occupation-industry groups

within the three earnings categories, as presented in table 5.16

Changes in employment between two distinct periods are compared and contrasted. Most of the 1989–93 period was characterized by widespread economic weakness, sluggish employment growth, and increasing unemployment.Conversely,

the years 1993–97 have been characterized by rapid economic

expansion, strong job growth, and a declining unemployment

rate.

Job growth in the highest-earnings group, which consists

primarily of managers and professionals in nearly all industries, swelled between 1993 and 1997, and the compound annual rate of increase (3.2 percent) was the highest among the

three earnings groups. This followed more modest employment gains among managerial and professional specialty occupations during the 1989–93 period.While recent job growth

Change in employment, 1989–93 and 1993–97, and 1993 median usual weekly earnings for selected occupations, and

industries

[Numbers in thousands]

Highest-earnings group

Total ... 1,968 1.2 5,638 3.2 (3

)

Professional specialty Manufacturing –117 –1.7 250 3.5 $818

Executive, administrative, and managerial Manufacturing –128 –1.3 450 4.3 803

Executive, administrative, and managerial Transportation and public utilities 46 1.2 255 6.0 760

Executive, administrative, and managerial Construction –88 –2.2 346 8.2 699

Executive, administrative, and managerial Finance, insurance, and real estate –19 –.2 339 3.8 618

Sales occupations Finance, insurance, and real estate 67 .9 174 2.2 602

Executive, administrative, and managerial Services 508 2.6 1,408 6.1 597

Professional specialty Services 1,322 2.7 1,813 3.4 577

Middle-earnings group

Total ... –1,635 –1.1 1,627 1.1 (3

)

Precision production, craft, and repair Manufacturing –391 –2.5 143 .9 500

Precision production, craft, and repair Construction –151 –.9 439 2.5 461

Operators, fabricators, and laborers Transportation and public utilities 237 2.4 285 2.6 459

Technicians and related support Services 281 3.3 190 2.0 436

Executive, administrative, and managerial Retail trade 109 1.7 241 3.5 422

Precision production, craft, and repair Services 199 2.6 68 .8 412

Precision production, craft, and repair Retail trade –142 –3.0 78 1.7 407

Administrative support, including clerical Manufacturing –243 –2.6 –132 –1.6 392

Operators, fabricators, and laborers Construction –164 –2.8 191 3.4 375

Operators, fabricators, and laborers Manufacturing –1,134 –3.3 415 1.3 342

Lowest-earnings group

Total ... 1,703 1.1 2,036 1.2 (3

)

Administrative support, including clerical Services 555 2.1 272 1.0 304

Sales occupations Services 61 1.7 247 5.9 246

Farming, forestry, and fishing Agriculture –150 –1.4 200 1.9 228

Sales occupations Retail trade 209 .6 760 2.2 223

Service occupations Services 626 1.7 343 .9 216

Service occupations Retail trade 297 1.6 175 .9 166

Change in employment,

1989–931

Change in employment,

1993–97 1

1993

Number Compound

annual rate Number Compoundannual rate

Median

weekly

earnings2

Occupation Industry

Table 5.

1 Change (number and percent) was calculated from unrounded estimates.

2 Data refer to all wage and salary workers aged 16 years and older.

3 Not available.

NOTE: Detail will not sum to totals because only those specific occupationindustry groups that supplied a large proportion of the employment growth or

decline are presented. Employment change was calculated using annual averages for 1989, 1993, and 1997. To increase comparability with data for 1990

forward, data for 1989 were adjusted to incorporate 1990 census-based population controls. (See text footnote 16.) Beginning in January 1997, data reflect

revised population controls used in the household survey.
62 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

among managers and professionals

continued to be largest in the services

industry, notable increases also occurred among managers in construction, transportation and public utilities,

and finance, insurance, and real estate.

There also was a notable rebound in

employment among managers and

professionals in manufacturing. (See

table 5 and chart 5.)

Within the middle-earnings group,

employment gains from 1993 to 1997

were equal to the losses sustained over

the 1989–93 period.(See table 5.)During the labor market contraction of the

early 1990s, there were widespread job

losses in occupations within manufacturing and construction.As labor market conditions improved in 1994, employment in some of these cyclically

sensitive jobs began to rebound.Since

then, there has been a notable pickup

in job growth among precision production, craft, and repair workers in construction.These developments—combined with the continued growth in

employment of technicians in the services industry, of managers in retail

trade, and of operators, fabricators, and

laborers in transportation and public

utilities—have enabled the middleearnings group to recoup all of the job

losses incurred during the early 1990s.

The annual rate of job growth in the

lowest-earnings group was about the

same for the 1989–93 and 1993–97 periods. Job growth remained concentrated among sales and service occupations in retail trade and clerical and

service occupations in services.

Labor force. Labor force growth in

1997 was somewhat slower than that

recorded over 1996. The number of

persons either working or looking for

work expanded by 1.6 million over the

year, to 136.8 million. The labor force

participation rate—the share of the civilian noninstitutional population that

was in the labor force—was up slightly

for adult women, and was unchanged

for adult men. (See table 4.) The rate

Unemployed persons by reason for and duration of unemployment,

quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1996–97

[Numbers in thousands]

Total, 16 years and older ..... 7,157 7,147 6,716 6,656 6,392 –791

Reason for unemployment

Job losers and persons

who completed temporary

jobs ....................................... 3,231 3,162 3,031 2,990 2,937 –294

On temporary layoff ............ 965 965 932 893 913 –52

Not on temporary layoff ....... 2,266 2,197 2,099 2,098 2,024 –242

Job leavers ............................. 827 821 804 853 693 –134

Reentrants .............................. 2,525 2,535 2,364 2,233 2,215 –310

New entrants .......................... 598 612 551 559 556 –42

Duration of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks .................. 2,658 2,625 2,518 2,498 2,504 –154

5 to 14 weeks ......................... 2,299 2,306 2,144 2,111 1,961 –338

15 weeks and over ................. 2,225 2,129 2,078 2,088 1,940 –285

15 to 26 weeks .................... 1,033 999 1,039 1,014 918 –115

27 weeks and over .............. 1,192 1,130 1,038 1,074 1,022 –170

Median duration, in weeks ...... 8.0 8.0 7.9 8.1 7.7 –.3

Average (mean) duration,

in weeks ............................... 16.1 15.7 15.3 16.1 16.1 .0

1 The over-the-year estimate of change for total unemployment has been adjusted to account for the introduction of revised population controls in January 1997. (See text footnote 8.)

Persons unemployed 27 weeks or longer as a percent of the total

unemployed by selected characteristics, annual averages, 1994–97

Total, 16 years and older .................. 20.3 17.3 17.4 15.8

Men ..................................................... 22.1 18.7 18.5 16.6

Women ................................................ 18.1 15.6 16.2 14.9

16 to 19 years ...................................... 9.4 8.7 8.7 8.0

20 to 24 years ...................................... 14.0 12.7 12.9 12.3

25 to 34 years ...................................... 20.6 17.4 16.8 15.0

35 to 44 years ...................................... 24.9 20.8 21.3 19.4

45 to 54 years ...................................... 29.6 25.1 25.1 23.2

55 to 64 years ...................................... 30.0 25.3 28.5 23.9

65 years and older ............................... 27.4 25.9 25.7 24.6

White ................................................... 19.3 15.8 16.0 14.1

Black ................................................... 23.7 21.6 21.8 20.2

Hispanic origin ..................................... 20.7 16.6 19.1 16.3

Managerial and professional

specialty ............................................ 23.6 20.6 20.3 18.8

Technical, sales, and administrative

support .............................................. 19.8 16.6 16.7 14.1

Service occupations ............................ 18.2 16.6 16.5 16.6

Precision production, craft,

and repair .......................................... 20.2 18.2 18.2 15.1

Operators, fabricators, and laborers .... 21.2 17.0 17.8 15.7

Permanent job losers .......................... 28.7 23.2 24.0 21.2

Table 6.

Change, fourthquarter 1996 to

fourth-quarter

19971

Fourth

quarter

Fourthquarter

1996

First

quarter

Second

quarter

Third

quarter

Reason and

duration

1997

Table 7.

Characteristic 1994 1995 1996 1997
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 63

for teenagers slipped by 0.8 percentage point over the year to

51.4 percent. Since the first quarter of 1995, the labor force

participation rate for teenagers has fallen by 2.4 percentage

points.

Unemployment and underutilization

Unemployment fell by 791,000 to 6.4 million in 1997, following a decline of less than a quarter million during the previous year.By the end of the year, the unemployment rate had

dropped to 4.7 percent, its lowest point in nearly 28 years.

The rates for all major worker groups declined over the year,

except that for Hispanics, for which the change was not statistically significant. (See table 4.)

Reasons for unemployment. The number of persons who

were unemployed because they had lost their jobs fell by

294,000 over the year, to 2.9 million. Of the two major subcategories of this group—those on temporary layoff (expecting

recall) and those whose job loss was thought to be permanent—the latter made up the vast majority (82 percent) of the

over-the-year decline. (See table 6.) The number of unemployed who were reentrants to the labor force also fell over the

year, to 2.2 million. Between the fourth quarters of 1996 and

1997, the number of unemployed persons who had voluntarily

left their last job—job leavers—declined slightly (by 134,000).

There had been virtually no change in this measure between

the fourth quarter of 1995 and the fourth quarter of 1996.

The proportion of new job leavers—those who have been

unemployed for less than 5 weeks—remained fairly constant

over the year, at 297,000 (quarterly data, not seasonally adjusted).It has been suggested that an increase in this measure

might indicate that workers would be more willing to quit

their jobs because they feel confident about employment opportunities.17While this may be true, unemployed job leavers

who had been out of work for less than 5 weeks accounted for

only 0.2 percent of the total civilian labor force in the fourth

quarter of 1997, and this figure has varied by no more than

0.1 percentage point for several years. In addition, this measure does not account for persons who quit their job and immediately become employed at another, or who quit their job

and leave the labor force altogether. Hence, the number of

new job leavers as a percent of the labor force may not be a

particularly revealing measure of the amount of slack in the

job market.

Duration of unemployment. In 1997, the number of persons

unemployed for long periods (27 weeks and over) declined.

(See table 6.) As mentioned earlier, however, the proportion

of persons unemployed for half a year or more has remained

unusually high relative to levels observed prior to the 1990–

91 recession. In the fourth quarter of 1997, about 1 in 6 unRange of alternative measures of labor underutilization, quarterly averages, not seasonally adjusted, 1996–97

[In percent]

U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a 1.5 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.3 –0.2

percent of the civilian labor force

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary

 jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force 2.3 2.8 2.1 2.0 2.0 –.3

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor

force (official unemployment rate) 5.0 5.7 4.9 4.8 4.4 –.6

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a

percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged

workers 5.2 5.9 5.2 5.1 4.6 –.6

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus

all other marginally attached workers, as a percent

of the civilian labor force plus all marginally attached

workers 6.0 6.8 5.9 5.7 5.3 –.7

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached

workers, plus total employed part time for economic

reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus

all marginally attached workers 9.0 10.0 8.9 8.6 8.0 –1.0

Table 8.

Third

 quarter

1997

First

 quarter

Fourth

 quarter

Second

 quarter

Fourth-

 quarter

1996

Change,

fourth-quarter

1996 to fourthquarter 1997

Measure
64 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

employed persons had been looking for work for more than a

half year. This ratio is down only slightly from 1 in 5 in mid1992, when the overall unemployment rate began to decline.

It is not clear why the proportion of long-term unemployment has remained so high in the face of strong employment

growth and low unemployment.18 Research has shown that

some groups, such as prime-age workers (those 25 to 54 years

of age), managers, professionals, and permanent job losers,

tend to experience more long-term unemployment than do others, as shown in table 7, and that these groups account for a

larger share of unemployment than they did prior to the 1990–

91 recession.However, this shift in the composition of the unemployed does not completely explain the persistently high

degree of long-term unemployment in the current expansion.

Other labor market measures. The official unemployment

rate is not the only measure of the extent to which labor resources are being utilized. The Bureau of Labor Statistics has

developed a range of indicators, called alternative measures

of labor underutilization, that can be used to supplement the

jobless rate. Table 8 shows alternative measures U-3 through

U-6 over the past year.19 As with the official jobless rate (U-3,

not seasonally adjusted), all of these measures trended down

over the year.

Alternative measure U-4 adds persons classified as “discouraged” to the number of unemployed persons. Discouraged workers are those persons who say that they want a job,

were available for work, and had searched sometime in the

previous 12 months, but had stopped looking for work because they believed there were no jobs available for them.

The total number of discouraged workers declined slightly

between 1996 and 1997, and U-4 trended down over the year.

(See table 9.)

Alternative indicator U-5 includes all “marginally attached” workers. Compared with U-4, this broader group includes the discouraged as well as those who are not currently

looking for work for reasons other than discouragement, such

as transportation or child-care problems. In 1997, there were

about 1.4 million of these “marginally attached” workers,

down slightly from the previous year. (See table 9.) Reflecting this decline, U-5, while 0.9 percentage point higher than

the official unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of 1997,

also was down over the year.

The broadest of the alternative indicators, U-6, adds a

group of the “underemployed” to the calculation.It represents

the number of unemployed persons, plus all “marginally attached” workers (including discouraged workers), plus all

persons employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the labor force plus all marginally attached workers.

People are employed part time—that is, 1 to 34 hours per

week—for various reasons. Some would prefer to work full

time but, because of slack work, business conditions, or seasonal declines in demand, are unable to do so. This group,

often labeled “persons employed part time for economic reaPersons not in the labor force by desire and availability for work, age, and sex, annual averages, 1996–97

[Numbers in thousands]

Total not in labor force ........... 66,647 66,837 11,160 11,343 18,720 18,552 36,768 36,942 24,119 24,454 42,528 42,382

Want a job now 1 ................ 5,451 4,941 2,050 1,909 2,514 2,241 886 791 2,190 2,034 3,261 2,907

Searched for work in

previous year 2 ................ 2,290 2,084 950 875 1,108 997 232 212 1,005 917 1,285 1,168

Not available to work ....... 732 669 365 346 328 289 40 34 277 257 455 412

Available to work ............. 1,558 1,416 585 529 780 708 192 178 728 659 830 756

Reason not currently

looking:

Discouragement over

 job prospects 3 ........... 397 343 115 107 225 184 58 52 233 200 164 143

Reasons other than

discouragement .......... 1,160 1,073 471 423 555 524 135 126 495 460 666 613

Did not search for work in

previous year .................. 3,161 2,857 1,100 1,034 1,407 1,245 654 579 1,185 1,118 1,976 1,739

Do not want a job now 1 ...... 61,197 61,895 9,110 9,434 16,205 16,311 35,882 36,151 21,929 22,420 39,267 39,475

Category

Age Sex

Total

Table 9.

16 to 24 years 25 to 54 years 55 years and over Men Women

1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997

1 Includes some persons who are not asked if they want a job.

2 Persons who had a job in the prior 12 months must have searched since

being separated from that job.

3 Includes persons who believed that no work was available, those who

could not find work, those who lacked necessary schooling or training, and

persons who believed that potential employers think they are too young or too

old, or who believed that they were being discriminated against for other

reasons.

NOTE: Beginning in January 1997, data reflect revised population controls

used in the household survey.
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 65

sons,” totaled about 3.7 million (not seasonally adjusted) in

the fourth quarter of 1997, having declined slightly over the

past year. By including these workers, U-6 treats some parttime workers on an equal basis with the unemployed. In the

fourth quarter of 1997, U-6 was 8.0 percent; in tandem with

the official rate of unemployment, U-6 declined over the year.

Another possible indication of the tightening labor market

can be gleaned from data on a broad group of persons who

are not in the labor force, but who have said they would like a

job. These persons who “want a job now” include not only

discouraged and other marginally attached workers—persons

who have shown some evidence of labor market attachment

by their prior job search—but anybody who simply indicates

the desire for employment. The total number of such persons

in 1997 was about 4.9 million. The over-the-year decline was

slightly more than 500,000, compared with a decrease of less

than half that magnitude in 1996. (See table 9.)

Regional differences in

growth

Employment. Nonfarm payroll employment grew in all four census regions in 1997.20 The rate of expansion

doubled in the Northeast relative to

last year’s performance, increased

slightly in the South, and slowed

somewhat in the West and Midwest.

Despite the moderation, the West was

once again the fastest growing region.

Services accounted for the greatest increase in the number of jobs in each of

the four regions, but construction employment posted the fastest rate of

growth, at least 3.6 percent in each.

Employment expanded in all major

industries throughout all regions, except for a small decline in mining in

the Midwest. The following tabulation

shows the growth in nonfarm jobs21

from 1996 to 1997:

Number Percent

West .................. 684,000 2.7

South ................ 898,000 2.1

Northeast .......... 419,000 1.8

Midwest ............ 410,000 1.4

For the second year in a row, job

growth was faster in the Mountain and

Pacific divisions (both in the West region) than any of the other seven divisions. The East South Central and East North Central divisions recorded the slowest rates of employment growth, just

over 1 percent.Services and trade accounted for between onehalf and four-fifths of the nonfarm payroll growth in each division.The only major industries to suffer employment losses

at the division level were mining (in four divisions) and manufacturing (in three divisions).

Unemployment. Unemployment rates decreased over the

year in all four census regions, reflecting the sustained improvement at the national level. The regions with the largest

declines were the West, where the rate fell by 1.0 percentage

point, and the South, whose rate dropped by 0.8 point. Despite the large decrease in its rate, the West continued to have

the highest fourth-quarter jobless rate for the fifth year in a

row. At 4.1 percent, the Midwest had the lowest unemployment rate for the seventh consecutive year.

Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on

private nonfarm payrolls by industry, 1995–97

Total private ............................ $11.56 $11.97 $12.45 3.0 3.5 4.0

Mining ................................. 15.46 15.77 16.35 3.0 2.0 3.7

Construction ....................... 15.20 15.62 16.23 2.1 2.8 3.9

Manufacturing ..................... 12.50 12.93 13.36 2.7 3.5 3.3

Transportation and public

utilities ............................... 14.30 14.51 15.05 2.7 1.5 3.8

Wholesale trade .................. 12.57 13.06 13.65 3.0 3.9 4.5

Retail trade ......................... 7.77 8.13 8.49 2.7 4.6 4.4

Finance, insurance, and

real estate ......................... 12.52 12.95 13.60 4.4 3.4 5.0

Services .............................. 11.53 11.98 12.46 3.3 3.9 4.0

Unemployment rates, by census region and division, quarterly averages,

seasonally adjusted, 1996–97

[In percent]

Northeast .............................. 5.5 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.1 –0.4

New England ...................... 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.1 4.1 –.6

Middle Atlantic .................... 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.4 –.4

South ..................................... 5.3 5.3 4.9 5.0 4.5 –.8

South Atlantic ..................... 4.9 5.0 4.7 4.3 4.2 –.7

East South Central .............. 6.1 5.6 5.0 5.8 4.9 –1.2

West South Central ............. 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.0 –.4

Midwest ................................. 4.5 4.2 3.9 3.9 4.1 –.4

East North Central .............. 4.7 4.5 4.0 4.1 4.4 –.3

West North Central ............. 4.1 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.4 –.7

West ....................................... 6.3 5.9 5.5 5.5 5.3 –1.0

Mountain ............................. 5.0 4.7 4.4 3.9 4.2 –.8

Pacific ................................. 6.9 6.4 6.0 6.1 5.7 –1.2

Table 10.

Change, fourthquarter 1996 to

fourth-quarter

1997

Fourth

quarter

Fourthquarter

1996

First

quarter

Second

quarter

Third

quarter

Region and

division

1997

Table 11.

Percent change Average hourly earnings

(current dollars)

1995 1996 1997 1994–95 1995–96 1996–97

Industry
66 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

Quartiles and selected deciles of usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers by selected

characteristics, annual averages, 1996–97

Sex, race,

and Hispanic origin

Total, 16 years

and older ..................... $233 $242 $319 $329 $490 $503 $738 $760 $1,059 $1,109

Men ............................ 253 265 359 372 557 579 827 858 1,177 1,228

Women ....................... 215 225 291 299 418 431 619 636 871 907

White .......................... 239 249 330 342 506 519 759 783 1,099 1,139

Men .......................... 262 273 376 386 580 595 854 884 1,222 1,256

Women ..................... 219 229 297 305 428 444 632 652 891 926

Black .......................... 203 214 274 284 387 400 578 595 786 824

Men .......................... 211 228 287 300 412 432 612 635 851 892

Women ..................... 197 204 261 269 362 375 526 537 733 761

Hispanic ..................... 191 201 247 258 339 351 514 528 771 798

Men .......................... 197 209 256 270 356 371 548 571 816 851

Women ..................... 183 190 231 238 316 318 468 483 682 698

Educational attainment

Total, 25 years

and older ..................... 250 260 348 360 520 540 771 801 1,113 1,149

Less than a high school

diploma ..................... 187 195 238 246 317 321 453 463 639 640

High school graduates,

no college ................. 236 245 312 322 443 461 625 646 840 876

Some college or

associate degree ...... 272 280 367 378 518 535 727 754 970 1,008

College graduates,

total .......................... 374 388 530 556 758 779 1,096 1,136 1,528 1,565

Bachelor’s degree

only ......................... 345 364 491 508 697 725 984 1,026 1,371 1,430

 Advanced degree ..... 458 470 640 655 914 927 1,273 1,321 1,795 1,880

Men, 25 years

and older ..................... 279 288 398 408 599 615 874 904 1,236 1,273

Less than a high school

diploma ..................... 200 210 263 272 357 365 510 511 712 705

High school graduates,

no college ................. 275 284 373 383 516 535 716 739 934 974

Some college or

associate degree ...... 301 309 423 435 604 621 826 861 1,091 1,140

College graduates,

total .......................... 401 427 599 618 874 896 1,239 1,274 1,749 1,800

Bachelor’s degree

only ....................... 379 403 555 586 795 827 1,135 1,167 1,553 1,589

Advanced degree .... 485 502 710 733 1,025 1,047 1,459 1,464 1,944 2,029

Women, 25 years

and older ..................... 227 235 307 315 444 462 646 666 902 938

Less than a high school

diploma ..................... 172 180 208 215 268 275 347 352 456 466

High school graduates,

no college ............... 209 218 276 284 365 378 498 512 663 681

Some college or

associate degree ...... 245 255 321 333 442 459 606 622 784 820

College graduates,

total .......................... 344 355 480 493 657 672 903 934 1,186 1,246

Bachelor’s degree

only ....................... 318 330 441 459 608 620 818 857 1,085 1,153

Advanced degree .... 437 438 591 600 784 800 1,060 1,073 1,427 1,469

Table 12.

NOTE: See text footnote 24 for explanation of deciles and quartiles. Beginning in January 1997, data reflect revised population controls used in the household

survey.

SOURCE: Current Population Survey.

Characteristic

Upper limit of:

First decile First quartile Second quartile

(median) Third quartile Ninth decile

1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997 1996 1997
Monthly Labor Review February 1998 67

All nine census divisions reported at least small declines

in joblessness, with the Pacific and East South Central divisions reporting the largest decreases, 1.2 percentage points

each, in their unemployment rates. The West North Central

had the lowest rate for the eighth consecutive year, while the

Pacific had the highest for the sixth year in a row. The range

at the division level, 2.3 percentage points, was the smallest

fourth-quarter spread in 5 years. Twenty-four States enjoyed

their lowest rates in the nearly 20-year history of the series.22

(See table 10.)

Earnings

Payroll survey. Average hourly earnings for production or

nonsupervisory workers in private, nonfarm industry increased 4.0 percent or $0.48, to $12.45 over the year.23 The

pace of growth accelerated over 1996; 6 of the 8 private-sector industry divisions enjoyed stronger growth in 1997. (See

table 11.)

Average hourly earnings, adjusted for inflation by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI–W), were up 2.3 percent over the year. Real average

hourly earnings have not increased this rapidly over the year

since 1976. While strong growth in current dollar earnings is

certainly responsible for some of the increase in real earnings, lower inflation as measured by the CPI–W helped boost

constant dollar earnings also. Increases in the price index averaged about 0.4 percent per quarter in 1997, half the rate

recorded in 1996. In 1997, constant dollar average hourly

earnings rose to $7.61 (1982=100), a level that has not been

attained since 1989. (See chart 6 on p. 60.)

Average weekly earnings rose 4.3 percent in 1997, slightly

more than a year earlier. Real average weekly earnings were

up 2.5 percent in 1997, the most in 14 years, and surpassed

$260 (1982=100) for the first time since the onset of recession in the early 1990s.

Household survey. Median weekly earnings of full-time

wage and salary workers rose 2.7 percent over the year,

slightly more than the increase in 1996.24 (See table 12.) In

1997, women’s earnings as a percentage of men’s, at 74.4

percent, was down slightly from the 1996 figure.

Following a recent trend, median earnings for high school

graduates aged 25 and older who work full time increased by

4.1 percent over the year, while those for college graduates

grew by only 2.8 percent. Median earnings for high school

graduates are well below those of college graduates, but earnings of high school graduates have risen by 9.5 percent since

1994, while those of college graduates have increased by 6.3

percent.

AS THE ECONOMY CONTINUED to expand in 1997, job growth

accelerated to 2.5 percent, slightly above that posted in the

prior 2 years. Despite employment losses in a few industries,

there was a net addition of 3 million payroll jobs. Both

the number of unemployed persons and the jobless rate continued to trend down in 1997; the jobless rate fell to its

lowest quarterly level in nearly 28 years, 4.7 percent. In addition, real earnings reached their highest level yet in the 1990s.

Footnotes

ACKNOWLEDGMENT: The authors thank Lisa Williamson, an economist in the

Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, for her analysis of regional employment.

1 The official ending dates for the last two major recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, were November 1982

and March 1991. Data used for this analysis are seasonally adjusted monthly

data. Although employment, which usually is a coincident economic indicator, did not hit its low point until February 1992, aggregate hours (the total

number of hours worked by production or nonsupervisory workers on private, nonfarm payrolls turned around in April 1991, 1 month after the official economic trough.

2 Comparisons are made at the two-digit SIC level for the private sector;

government is disaggregated into five components—Federal, State education and noneducation, and local education and noneducation.

3 The nonfarm industry divisions include mining; construction; manufacturing; transportation and public utilities; wholesale trade; retail trade;

finance, insurance, and real estate; services; and government.

4

 See, for example, Frederic M. Biddle, “Boeing’s effort to cushion itself

from cycles backfires,” The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 24, 1997.

5

 See, for example, Eva M. Rodriguez and Lucette Lagnado, “U.S. claims

deep fraud at Columbia,” The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 7, 1997; and “Clinton

calls for moratorium on entry of home health agencies into Medicare,” Health

Care Policy Report (Washington, Bureau of National Affairs, Sept. 22, 1987),

pp. 1442–3.

6

 Enrollment levels are for the fall term and are projections from 1995

forward. See U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education

Statistics, Projections of Education Statistics to 2007, NCES 97–382. 7

 Employment levels are from the Current Employment Statistics survey

and are seasonally adjusted data for September. They include noninstructional

as well as instructional staff. 8

 Beginning in 1997, the population controls used in the second-stage

ratio adjustment method were revised to reflect updated information on the

demographic characteristics of immigrants to, and emigrants from, the United

States. As a result, the count of the civilian noninstitutional population 16

years and older was raised by about 470,000. The labor force and employment levels were increased by about 320,000 and 290,000, respectively.

Nearly all of the employment adjustment was assigned to men. The overall

unemployment level was marginally affected by about 25,000. The Hispanic-origin population and labor force estimates were raised by about

450,000 and 250,000, respectively, and Hispanic employment by 325,000.

Overall and subgroup unemployment rates and other percentages of labor

market participation were not significantly affected. For additional information and an explanation of the changes and their effects on national labor

force estimates, see Gloria Peterson Green, “Revisions in the Current Population Survey Effective January 1997,” Employment and Earnings, February 1997.

9

 The Current Population Survey (CPS) a nationwide sample survey conducted for the Bureau of Labor Statistics by the Bureau of the Census, provides information about the demographic characteristics and employment

status of the noninstitutional population aged 16 and older. The estimates of

employment and over-the-year employment growth from the CPS differ from
68 Monthly Labor Review February 1998

Job Growth in 1997

those obtained from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey because of conceptual and methodological differences between the two surveys. (For an overview of these differences, see box on page 58.) The official ending dates for the last two major recessions, as determined by the

National Bureau of Economic Research, were November 1982 and March

1991. Data used for this analysis are seasonally adjusted monthly data.

10 See Jennifer M. Gardner, “The 1990–91 recession: how bad was the

labor market?” Monthly Labor Review, June 1994, pp. 3–11.

11 Direct comparisons with data from periods prior to January 1994 are

not recommended because subsequent changes to the questionnaire resulted

in an increase in estimated number of people working part time.

12 Multiple jobholders are defined as persons who, during the survey

reference week, held two or more jobs as wage and salary workers, were

self-employed and also held a wage and salary job, or worked as an unpaid

family worker and also held a wage and salary job. Full-time jobs are those

in which persons usually work 35 hours or more per week. Part-time jobs

are those in which persons usually work 1 to 34 hours per week. For more

information on multiple jobholding, see John F. Stinson, Jr., “New data on

multiple jobholding available from the CPS,” Monthly Labor Review, March

1997, pp. 3–8; and Thomas Amirault, “Characteristics of multiple jobholders, 1995,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1997, pp. 9–15. Data presented

in the text tabulation are annual averages. 13 See Robert D. Hershey, Jr., “The rise of the working class,” The New

York Times, Sept. 3, 1997, Business Day section, p. D1. 14 Individual cells of a major occupation by major industry matrix were

ranked in descending order by median weekly earnings of all wage and

salary workers in 1993. These cells were then grouped into three categories—highest-, middle-, and lowest-earnings—that each accounted for approximately one-third of total employment in 1988. An employment time

series for each occupation-industry cell from January 1989 to December

1997 was developed, and data for each cell were sorted into the appropriate

earnings group. For a more detailed explanation of the nature of job growth

and a complete discussion of the methodology used in the analysis, see Randy

E. Ilg, “The nature of employment growth, 1989–95,” Monthly Labor Review, June 1996, pp. 29–36. 15 Because the data used were not seasonally adjusted, they were averaged over a 12-month moving period to smooth seasonal variations. The

annual (12-month) average employment for 1989 is the base employment

level, shown as the zero value for December 1989. All other values are the

average employment level for the 12 months ending with a specific month

divided by the 12-month average for 1989, converted to a percent change.

Beginning in 1997, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. 16 Only data for those specific occupation-industry groups that supplied

a large proportion of the employment growth or decline are presented. For a

complete list of the occupation-industry cells in each earnings group, see

Ilg, “The nature of employment growth, 1989–95.” The source of employment and earnings data used in this analysis is the Current Population Survey (CPS). The employment estimates for the period under study have been

affected by a number of factors. Official data for 1990 and later years incorporate 1990 census-based population controls, adjusted for the estimated

undercount, whereas 1989 data are based on 1980 census population controls, for which no such adjustment has been made. In an effort to make the

1989 estimates more comparable with data for the other years analyzed,

they were adjusted on the basis of the relationship, or ratios, between the

1990–93 monthly estimates prior to and after the incorporation of 1990

census-population controls. The pre- to post-1990 census adjustment ratio

for each occupation-industry cell for each month over the 4 years from 1990

to 1993 was averaged and applied to the 1989 unadjusted estimate.

17 See G. Pascal Zachary and Michael M. Phillips, “Fewer workers worry

about losing jobs,” The Wall Street Journal, Feb. 26, 1997, p. A2.

18 Several studies have noted the persistently high degree of long-term

joblessness in the current expansion. For example, see “Long-term unemployment remains high during recovery,” Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 95–11 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, September 1995). See also Randy

E. Ilg, “Long-term unemployment in recent recessions” Monthly Labor Review, June 1994, pp. 12–15; and Gardner, “The 1990–91 recession.”

19 For additional information, see John E. Bregger and Steven E. Haugen,

“BLS introduces new range of alternative unemployment measures,” Monthly

Labor Review, October 1995, pp. 19–26. Two of the alternative measures,

U-1 and U-2, are excluded from this analysis because they focus on duration of unemployment and are reasons for unemployment that have just

been discussed.

20 Regions, divisions, and the States they comprise (including the District of Columbia) are as follows: NORTHEAST: New England division—

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; Middle Atlantic division—New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania;

SOUTH: South Atlantic division—Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida,

Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia;

East South Central division—Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee;

West South Central division—Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas; MIDWEST: East North Central division—Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio,

Wisconsin; West North Central division—Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota; WEST: Mountain division—

Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming;

Pacific division—Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.

21 Changes in terms of number and percent, are based on fourth-quarter

1996 to the October and November average for 1997, seasonally adjusted.

The total of regional employment may not equal U.S. employment, because

the regional estimates represent the sum of State employment estimates,

which are developed by each State employment security agency, and are not

intended for national aggregation. The national employment estimate is produced separately by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

22 The series of monthly statewide employment and unemployment figures begins in 1978.

23 Hours and earnings for government are not produced by the CES

program.

24 Ten percent of all full-time wage and salary workers earn less than the

upper limit of the first decile; 25 percent earn less than the upper limit of the

first quartile; 50 percent earn less than the upper limit of the second quartile,

or median; 75 percent earn less than the upper limit of the third quartile;

and 90 percent earn less than the upper limit of the ninth decile.