U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Issues in Labor St atistics

How long before the

unemployed find jobs or quit 

looking?

Summary 11-1 / May 2011

Each month, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 

publishes duration-of-unemployment measures derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS). 

These measures include the average and median 

number of weeks that the jobless have been searching for work, as well as the number of unemployed 

persons by defined categories ranging from less than 

5 weeks to 52 weeks or more. Analysts and news reports have frequently associated the mean or median 

duration measure with the length of time it takes jobseekers to find employment. However, the published 

data represent the current duration of unemployment 

and are not measures of completed periods of job 

search.

This brief report presents estimates of the length 

of time someone is unemployed before finding a job 

or before giving up searching for work. These measures were derived from the CPS labor force status 

flow data, which capture the extent to which the unemployed find jobs, leave the labor force, or stay unemployed from one month to the next.1 

Recently, researchers at BLS linked unemployment 

duration for persons jobless in one month with their labor force status in the following month. In this manner, 

estimates of unemployment duration were created for 

the unemployed who became employed in the subsequent month, as well as for the unemployed who quit 

looking for work and left the labor force. 

Labor force status in the CPS is determined for 

one week each month, usually during the survey reference week that contains the 12th; therefore, it is 

not possible to obtain information on the precise week 

between survey reference periods that unemployed 

individuals became employed or left the labor force. 

For example, if someone had been unemployed for 10 

weeks as of the October reference week and reported 

they were employed in November, their duration of 

unemployment would be 10 weeks. However, the actual length of any one individual job search could have 

been as much as an additional 3 weeks—the number 

of weeks from the October to November survey reference periods.2

 Therefore, estimates of duration in this 

report are somewhat understated.3

 Data presented in 

this paper are not seasonally adjusted and, because 

they can fluctuate from month to month, a 12-month 

moving average is used in the charts, with the latest 

data point representing an average for 2010.

By the end of 2010, the median number of weeks 

jobseekers had been unemployed in the month prior 

to finding work was a little more than 10 weeks.4

 In 

contrast, prior to the start of the recent recession 

in 2007, the median was 5 weeks. Unemployment 

duration also increased among those who eventually quit looking and left the labor force. Unemployed 

individuals were jobless for about 20 weeks in 2010 

before giving up their job search and leaving the 

labor force. Whereas in 2007, those who were not 

successful in their job search had been unemployed 

for about 8.5 weeks before leaving the labor force.5 

(See chart 1.) 

The recent recession has had a profound effect 

on the length of successful job search. The table 

shows the distribution of transitions from unemployment to employment by duration of unemployment (in 

weeks). From 1994 through 2008, roughly half of all 

unemployed jobseekers found jobs within 5 weeks. 

In 2007, for example, 49 percent of those who were 

unemployed in the prior month and employed in the 
2

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2011

How long before the 

unemployed find jobs or quit looking?

subsequent month had been jobless for less than 5 

weeks. During the same year, less than 3 percent of 

the unemployed who found work had been jobless 

for more than 52 weeks. In stark contrast, 11 percent 

of transitions from unemployment to employment exceeded a year in 2010, and only 34 percent lasted 

less than 5 weeks. 

The information on unemployment duration from 

the flow data also provides evidence that the likelihood of becoming employed decreases the longer 

one is unemployed. For example, the chance that 

a person who had been unemployed for less than 

5 weeks would become employed in a subsequent 

month was about 30 percent in 2010. For those unemployed 27 weeks or more, that chance in a subsequent month was only 10 percent. (See charts 2 

and 3.)

In summary, the length of time it took for the jobless 

to be successful in their job search increased sharply 

during the recent recession and in its aftermath. The 

median number of weeks unemployed doubled—

from 5 to 10 weeks—and a far greater share of successful jobseekers spent in excess of a year in their 

search for employment. At the same time, the median 

duration for unemployed persons who were unsuccessful in their job search and left the labor force also 

rose dramatically. Moreover, once unemployed, the 

likelihood that one would be successful in one’s job 

search decreased as the length of time spent searching for work increased.

This Issues paper was written by Randy Ilg, an 

economist in the Division of Labor Force Statistics, 

Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics. 

Email: CPSinfo@bls.gov. Telephone: (202) 691-6378.

Information in this summary will be made available to sensory-impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: (202) 691-5200. Federal Relay Service: 1 (800) 877-8339. This report is in the public 

domain and may be reproduced without permission. 

(Appropriate citation is requested.)

Acknowledgment: The author would like to thank 

Gregory P. Erkens and Thomas D. Evans in the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics at 

BLS for their input in developing the various duration 

series and Matthew K. Daigle at Northwood University for his analytical insight.

Notes

1 The CPS, or household survey, is a monthly sample survey 

of approximately 60,000 households. Because three-quarters of 

the sample overlap from month-to-month, it is possible to derive 

changes in the labor force status of individuals between employment, unemployment, and not in the labor force. For more information on the development and analytical uses of labor force 

status flows, see Harley J. Frazis, Edwin L. Robison, Thomas D. 

Evans, and Martha A. Duff, “Estimating gross flows consistent 

with stocks in the CPS,” Monthly Labor Review, September 2005, 

pp.3-9, and Randy E. Ilg, “Analyzing CPS data using gross flows,” 

Monthly Labor Review, September 2005, pp.10-18.

2

 In this example, the person’s labor force status would have 

changed to employed during the November reference period 

which is the fourth week after the October reference period.

3

 Estimates of duration also may be understated because only 

three-quarters of the sample are accounted for in month-to-month 

flows; duration estimates for months-in-sample 4 and 8 are not 

included and have been shown to be slightly higher. In addition, 

duration measures likely are affected by entry rates into, and exit 

rates from, unemployment. This analysis implies a steady-state 

labor market where entry and exit rates are stable.

4

 In this report, the median duration measure is used because 

it is considered to be a better descriptor of the distribution and is 

not distorted by outliers and extreme values, as are means. In addition, the mean duration estimate is somewhat biased because 

the greatest number of weeks of unemployment that could be recorded in the CPS was capped at 2 years through 2010. In the 

aftermath of the particularly severe recent recession, 9 percent 

of the unemployed were jobless for 99 weeks or longer in 2010. 

Data presented in this report encompass the period from February 1994 through December 2010. A major redesign of the CPS 

to improve the quality of the data derived from the survey was implemented in January 1994. One of the important features of the 

redesign was the adaptation of a computer-assisted automated 

instrument which permitted dependent interviewing. Dependent 

interviewing reduces respondent and interviewer burden, while 

improving consistency of the data from one month to the next. 

5

 As a reminder, medians represent the length of time individuals had been classified as unemployed in the survey reference 

period prior to becoming employed or leaving the labor force. 

n
3

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2011

How long before the 

unemployed find jobs or quit looking?

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

Chart 1. Median duration of unemployment for persons who became employed or left the 

labor force in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month moving average, 

January 1995–December 2010 Weeks

Left the labor force

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Duration is based on the number of weeks unemployed in the month before becoming employed or leaving the labor force and, therefore,

is somewhat understated.

Became employed 

Chart 1. Median duration of unemployment for persons who became employed or left the labor force

in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month moving average, 

January 1995–December 2010

Jan. 1995 Jan. 1997 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2009 Dec. 2010
4

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2011

How long before the 

unemployed find jobs or quit looking?

Table. Share of the unemployed who found jobs by weeks of duration of unemployment, annual 

averages, 1994–2010

(Percent distribution)

Year

Transitions 

from unemployed to 

employed (In 

thousands)

Less than 5 

weeks

5 to 14

weeks

15 to 26 

weeks

27 to 52 

weeks

53 weeks and 

over

1994 2,208 47.3 29.0 11.4 8.3 4.0

1995 2,072 50.5 28.6 10.7 6.6 3.5

1996 2,035 52.1 28.8 10.1 6.5 2.6

1997 2,003 52.3 28.9 10.3 6.0 2.5

1998 1,909 54.5 28.5 8.9 5.8 2.4

1999 1,874 55.6 28.3 9.2 5.0 2.0

2000 1,839 56.5 28.2 8.1 4.9 2.1

2001 1,952 55.7 29.0 9.2 4.6 1.6

2002 2,111 47.4 29.8 12.1 8.1 2.6

2003 2,085 44.7 29.1 12.8 9.3 4.1

2004 2,065 45.5 28.6 12.3 9.3 4.3

2005 1,985 47.3 28.7 12.0 8.0 3.9

2006 1,967 49.5 28.5 11.7 7.5 2.8

2007 1,930 49.0 29.7 11.4 7.1 2.8

2008 2,064 47.2 30.4 11.9 7.3 3.2

2009 2,402 38.9 29.1 14.9 12.1 5.1

2010 2,517 34.0 25.9 13.8 15.3 11.0

NOTE: Duration is based on the number of weeks unemployed in the month before becoming employed and, therefore, 

is somewhat understated.

SOURCE: Research series from the Current Population Survey.
5

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2011

How long before the 

unemployed find jobs or quit looking?

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

40.00

45.00

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

Chart 2. Share of the unemployed who were jobless for less than 5 weeks who became 

employed or left the labor force in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month 

moving average, January 1995–December 2010 Percent of unemployed

Left the labor force 

Became employed 

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

Duration is based on the number of weeks unemployed in the month before becoming employed or leaving the labor force and, therefore,

is somewhat understated.

Chart 2. Share of the unemployed who were jobless for less than 5 weeks who became employed or left the

labor force in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month moving average,

January 1995–December 2010

Jan. 1995 Jan. 1997 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2009 Dec. 2010

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
6

Issues in Labor Statistics May 2011

How long before the 

unemployed find jobs or quit looking?

0.00

5.00

10.00

15.00

20.00

25.00

30.00

35.00

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jan-03 Jan-05 Jan-07 Jan-09

Chart 3. Share of the unemployed who were jobless for 27 weeks and over who became 

employed or left the labor force in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month 

moving average, January 1995–December 2010 Percent of unemployed

Left the labor force 

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

Duration is based on the number of weeks unemployed in the month before becoming employed or leaving the labor force and, therefore,

is somewhat understated.

Became employed 

Chart 3. Share of the unemployed who were jobless for 27 weeks and over who became employed or

left the labor force in the subsequent month, not seasonally adjusted 12-month

January 1995–December 2010

Jan. 1995 Jan. 1997 Jan. 1999 Jan. 2001 Jan. 2003 Jan. 2005 Jan. 2007 Jan. 2009 Dec. 2010

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0