Monthly Labor Review November 2006 19

A new look at long-term

labor force projections to 2050

Among the factors affecting the composition and growth

of the labor force over the next 50 years are the aging

of the baby-boom generation, the stabilization of women’s

labor force participation rates, and increasing racial

and ethnic diversity in the workforce

 Long-Term Labor Force

Mitra Toossi

Mitra Toossi is an

economist in the

Office of

Occupational

Statistics and

Employment

Projections, Bureau of

Labor Statistics. E-mail:

Toossi.Mitra@bls.gov

With an annual growth rate of 0.6 percent

over the 2005–50 period, the labor

force is projected to reach 194.8 million in 2050. Peaking at 2.6 percent during the

1970s, the growth rate of the labor force has been

decreasing with the passage of each decade and

is expected to continue to do so in the future. (See

chart 1.)

The 0.6-percent annual growth rate from 2005

to 2050 reflects a projected population of 322.6

million and a labor force participation rate of 60.4

percent in 2050. The period to 2050 will witness

the baby-boom generation ascending the age

ladder until the group moves out of the labor

force, bringing to an end one of the major drivers

of labor force growth over the post-World War II

period. (See table 1.)

Because labor force growth is one of the major

determinants of long-term economic growth,

projections of the labor force shed light on the

future path of the economy and its ability to create

goods and services. The Bureau of Labor Statistics

carries out medium-term, or 10-year, labor force

projections every other year. Every several years,

longer term projections of the labor force are carried

out to elicit possible future paths of labor force

growth. Several key factors are expected to

continue to affect the composition and growth of

the labor force in the next 50 years:

• The impact of the aging baby-boom

generation on the labor force. The impact

of the baby-boom generation on the composition and growth of the labor force will

continue to be a key factor. As this large

cohort ages, the increase in the share of the

older labor force and, eventually, the exit of

the baby-boom cohort from the workforce

will be the main factor in lowering the growth

of the labor force.

• The stabilization of women’s labor force participation rates after years of remarkable

increases. The growth rate of the labor force

was much affected by the sizable increase in

the labor force participation of women during

the 1970s and 1980s. However, women’s

labor force participation rates appear to have

peaked at 60 percent in 1999. Every year since

then, the participation rate of women decreased, reaching 59.3 percent in 2005.

• Increasing racial and ethnic diversity. The

labor force is expected to become even more

diverse than it is now. Minorities, with higher

population growth through immigration,

higher fertility rates, and higher labor force

participation rates, are projected to expand

their share of the workforce considerably in

the future.

The labor force of the future will be determined primarily by the dynamism of U.S. population change. The diversity of the Nation’s
20 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

Table 1. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 2000, 2005, and projected 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

 Level Change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth rate

2000 2005 2050 2000–05 2005–50 2000–05 2005–50 2000 2005 2050 2000–05 2005–50

 Total, 16 years and older . 142,583 149,320 194,757 6,737 45,437 4.7 30.4 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.9 0.6

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ................................ 22,520 22,290 25,808 –230 3,518 –1.0 15.8 15.8 14.9 13.3 –.2 .3

 25 to 54 ................................ 101,394 102,773 124,392 1,379 21,619 1.4 21.0 71.1 68.8 63.9 .3 .4

 55 and older ......................... 18,669 24,257 44,556 5,588 20,299 29.9 83.7 13.1 16.2 22.9 5.4 1.4

Sex:

 Men ....................................... 76,280 80,033 103,183 3,753 23,150 4.9 28.9 53.5 53.6 53.0 1.0 .6

 Women .................................. 66,303 69,288 91,574 2,985 22,286 4.5 32.2 46.5 46.4 47.0 .9 .6

Race:

 White .................................... 118,545 122,299 142,371 3,754 20,072 3.2 16.4 83.1 81.9 73.1 .6 .3

 Black .................................... 16,397 17,013 26,809 616 9,796 3.8 57.6 11.5 11.4 13.8 .7 1.0

 Asian .................................... 6,270 6,503 16,124 233 9,621 3.7 147.9 4.4 4.4 8.3 .7 2.0

 All other groups .................... 1,371 3,505 9,453 2,134 5,948 155.7 169.6 1.0 2.3 4.9 20.7 2.2

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ...................... 16,689 19,824 47,317 3,135 27,493 18.8 138.7 11.7 13.3 24.3 3.5 2.0

 Other than Hispanic origin ... 125,894 129,496 147,440 3,602 17,944 2.9 13.9 88.3 86.7 75.7 .6 .3

 White non-Hispanic ........... 102,729 103,891 100,189 1,162 –3,702 1.1 –3.6 72.0 69.6 51.4 .2 –.1

Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

1

 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as being of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders. For this

group, all 2000 numbers are estimates.

1

Chart 1. Labor force growth, by decades, 1950s to 2005 and projected to 2040s

Annual

rates of

change

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Annual

rates of

change

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 2020s 2030s 2040s

0

1

2

3

0

1

2

3
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 21

population has affected the size and composition of the labor

force in the past and will continue to do so in the future.

Chart 2 presents a snapshot of demographic change in the

United States since 1920. The chart shows the waves of

change that have been the result of differing birthrates during

the past eight or nine decades. The following features are

evident:

• A reduction in birthrates—the “birth dearth”—in the

late 1920s and early 1930s

• A surge in birthrates—the “baby boom”—in the 1946–

64 period

• A slight reduction in birthrates again—the “baby

bust”—from 1965 to 1975

• An increase in birthrates again—the “baby-boom

echo”—during the late 1980s and the 1990s.

Even if all other variables are kept constant, the differing

birthrates of the U.S. population throughout the past eight or

nine decades, and the resulting boom-and-bust waves of

population change, would greatly influence the demographics

of the present and future workforce.

The current projections of the labor force reinforce the

results of previous BLS projections, revealing a population,

and consequently a labor force, that possesses the following

characteristics of change over the next 50 years:

• The aging of both the population and the labor force

will result in a slowing down of the growth rate of the

labor force.

• The share of the labor force aged 55 and older is rising

rapidly, a direct result of increases in life expectancies

and decreases in fertility rates of the U.S. population.

By 2020, the share of the labor force held by those 55

years and older is projected to be nearly 24 percent.

• Significant numbers of the older age groups in the labor

force will be retiring, resulting in a loss of much-needed

skills and significant amounts of institutional knowledge.

Chart 2. Number of live births, 1920–2005

Millions

of births

Millions

of births

SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0

1

2

3

4

5

0

1

2

3

4

5

Baby boomers
22 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

• The share of the youth (16 to 24 years) workforce is

projected to decrease until 2020 and to grow very slowly

after that.

• The share of the prime-age (25 to 54 years) workforce is

also projected to decline up to 2020 and to grow slowly

after that date.

• Both the population and the labor force are projected to

become even more racially and ethnically diverse.

• The median age of the labor force is expected to increase, reaching 42 years in 2020.

• The economic dependency (see pp. 37–38) of the U.S.

population also will increase substantially.

Labor force projections

BLS long-term labor force projections are carried out by

applying population projections produced by the U.S. Census

Bureau to BLS projections of the labor force participation rate.1

The assumptions about the population and the labor force

participation rate that underlie the current BLS long-term

projections of the labor force to 2050 differ from those of the

previous BLS study conducted in 2002.

Assumptions about the population. The previous BLS longterm labor force projections were based on long-term Census

Bureau population projections, weighted by 1990 census

weights.2 The previous BLS long-term labor force projections

from 2000 to 2050 were extensions of the 2000–10 interim

projections.3

The current BLS labor force projections to 2050 are based

on interim population projections of the Census Bureau, in

turn based on Census 2000.4 The current long-term labor force

projections through 2050 are extensions of the 2004–14

projections published in the November 2005 issue of the

Monthly Labor Review.

5

Census Bureau interim population projections are based

on assumptions about future fertility and mortality rates of

the U.S. population. Assumptions about immigration to the

United States, which has a significant impact on population

growth, are added to the assumptions about fertility and

mortality. Indeed, of the preceding three factors—assumptions about fertility rates, assumptions about mortality rates,

and assumptions about immigration—all of which are the basis

of the calculation of the future population, none is as important

or as uncertain as the assumptions about immigration.

Assumptions about the labor force participation rate. In the

previous BLS long-term labor force projections, the detailed

labor force participation rates were projected from 2000 to

2015, but were held constant from 2015 through 2050. As a

result, any projected changes in the aggregate labor force

participation rate and in the labor force between 2015 and

2050 reflected only changes in the composition of the

population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity.

In the current set of long-term labor force projections,

detailed labor force participation rates were projected from

2004 to 2020. Consequently, during this period, any changes

projected in the labor force are the result not only of compositional changes of the population, but also of changes in the

detailed labor force participation rates of the various age, sex,

race, and ethnic categories. However, the latter changes are

based on the past labor force behavior of those categories

and are often assumed to approach zero beyond a certain

point in the projection horizon. Accordingly, changes in the

aggregate labor force participation rate and in the labor force

between 2020 and 2050 will reflect only changes in the age,

sex, race, and ethnic composition of the population.

Major factors affecting labor force change

Population growth and changes in participation rates are the

main factors in the growth of the labor force. However, most of

the changes in labor force growth are a result of changes in the

population. During the 2000–50 timeframe, the projected overall

decline in the participation rate is expected to exert a relatively

insignificant influence on the labor force, whose growth will likely

be due mostly to the impact of population growth.

The Census Bureau carries out long-term population projections of the resident U.S. population. The conversion from

the resident population concept of the Census Bureau to the

civilian noninstitutional population concept of the BLS Current

Population Survey (CPS) takes place in three steps. First the

population of children under 16 years is taken out of the total

resident population. Then the population of the Armed Forces, broken down into different age, sex, race, and ethnic categories, is subtracted. Finally, the institutional population is

subtracted from the civilian population for all the different

categories. Thus, the civilian noninstitutional population comprises all nonmilitary persons 16 years and older who are not

inmates of penal or mental institutions, sanitariums, or homes

for the aged.

Population

The many demographic events since the beginning of the

20th century have led to significant changes in the size and

composition of the population. Table 2 portrays the civilian

noninstitutional population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity

from 1990 to 2050, and chart 3 shows the noninstitutional

population and the labor force in 1950, 2000, and 2050

(projected).

The civilian noninstitutional population was 189.2 million

in 1990, 212.6 million in 2000, and 226.1 million in 2005, an

increase of more than 13.5 million over the 2000–05 timeframe.
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 23

Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Total, 16 years and older ..... 189,164 212,577 226,082 237,417 257,984 280,024 301,567 322,550

.....................................................

Age, years: ..................................

 16 to 24 .................................... 33,421 34,453 36,674 37,901 36,910 40,844 43,610 46,320

 25 to 54 .................................... 105,777 120,657 124,175 125,442 126,488 132,095 141,147 149,223

 25 to 34 ................................ 42,976 38,704 39,064 40,507 43,813 43,674 48,367 51,341

 35 to 44 ................................ 37,719 44,312 43,005 40,431 42,065 45,856 46,173 50,882

 45 to 54 ................................ 25,081 37,641 42,107 44,504 40,610 42,565 46,607 47,000

 55 to 64 .................................... 20,720 24,230 30,165 35,946 42,443 39,108 41,341 45,398

 65 and older ............................. 29,247 33,237 35,067 38,127 52,143 67,978 75,470 81,608

Sex:

 Men ........................................... 90,377 101,964 109,151 114,631 124,664 135,306 145,799 156,313

 Women ...................................... 98,787 110,613 116,931 122,786 133,320 144,718 155,768 166,237

.....................................................

Race: ............................................

 White ........................................ 160,625 176,220 184,446 191,253 203,270 215,142 225,678 235,187

 Black ........................................ 21,477 24,901 26,517 29,036 32,756 36,982 41,188 45,391

 Asian ........................................ 7,062 9,330 9,842 11,259 14,401 18,217 22,540 26,939

 All other groups ........................ — 2,126 5,277 5,868 7,558 9,683 12,161 15,032

.....................................................

Ethnicity: ......................................

 Hispanic origin .......................... 15,904 23,938 29,133 32,821 41,926 52,315 63,352 74,907

 Other than Hispanic origin ....... 173,260 188,639 196,949 204,596 216,058 227,709 238,215 247,643

 White non-Hispanic ............... 146,535 153,506 157,394 160,827 164,538 166,999 167,631 166,919

........................................... 1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

 Change .........

 Total, 16 years and older .............................. 23,413 13,505 11,335 20,567 22,040 21,543 20,983

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ............................................................. 1,032 2,221 1,227 –991 3,934 2,766 2,710

 25 to 54 ............................................................. 14,880 3,518 1,267 1,046 5,607 9,052 8,076

 25 to 34 ......................................................... –4,272 360 1,443 3,306 –139 4,693 2,974

 35 to 44 ......................................................... 6,593 –1,307 –2,574 1,634 3,791 317 4,709

 45 to 54 ......................................................... 12,560 4,466 2,397 –3,894 1,955 4,042 393

 55 to 64 ............................................................. 3,510 5,935 5,781 6,496 –3,335 2,233 4,057

 65 and older ...................................................... 3,990 1,830 3,060 14,016 15,835 7,492 6,138

Sex:

 Men ................................................................... 11,587 7,187 5,480 10,033 10,642 10,493 10,514

 Women ............................................................... 11,826 6,318 5,855 10,534 11,398 11,050 10,469

Race:

 White ................................................................. 15,595 8,226 6,807 12,017 11,872 10,537 9,509

 Black ................................................................. 3,424 1,616 2,519 3,720 4,226 4,206 4,203

 Asian ................................................................. 2,268 512 1,417 3,141 3,817 4,323 4,399

 All other groups ................................................. 2,126 3,151 2,591 1,690 2,126 2,478 2,871

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ................................................... 8,034 5,195 3,688 9,105 10,389 11,037 11,556

 Other than Hispanic origin ................................ 15,379 8,310 7,647 11,462 11,651 10,506 9,427

 White non-Hispanic ........................................ 6,971 3,888 3,433 3,710 2,461 632 –712

 Percent change

 Total, 16 years and older .............................. 12.4 6.4 5.0 8.7 8.5 7.7 7.0

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ............................................................. 3.3 6.2 3.3 –2.6 10.7 6.8 6.2

 25 to 54 ............................................................. 14.1 2.9 1.0 .8 4.4 6.9 5.7

 25 to 34 ......................................................... –9.9 .9 3.7 8.2 –.3 10.7 6.1

 35 to 44 ......................................................... 17.5 –2.9 –6.0 4.0 9.0 .7 10.2

 45 to 54 ......................................................... 50.1 11.9 5.7 –8.7 4.8 9.5 .8

 55 to 64 ............................................................. 16.9 24.5 19.2 18.1 –7.9 5.7 9.8

 65 and older ...................................................... 14.4 7.8 5.7 36.8 30.4 11.0 8.1

See footnotes at end of table.

1

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity

Level

1
24 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

Table 2. Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected

 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

Sex:

 Men ..................................................... 12.8 7.0 4.9 8.8 8.5 7.8 7.2

 Women ................................................ 12.0 5.7 5.0 8.6 8.5 7.6 6.7

Race: ............................................

 White.................................................. 9.7 4.7 3.7 6.3 5.8 4.9 4.2

 Black .................................................. 15.9 6.5 9.5 12.8 12.9 11.4 10.2

 Asian .................................................. 32.2 5.5 14.4 27.9 26.5 23.7 19.5

 All other groups .................................. ... ... 87.5 28.8 28.1 25.6 23.6

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ................................. 50.5 21.7 12.7 27.7 24.8 21.1 18.2

 Other than Hispanic origin .............. 8.9 4.4 3.9 5.6 5.4 4.6 4.0

 White non-Hispanic ...................... 4.8 2.5 2.2 2.3 1.5 .4 –.4

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Percent distribution

 Total, 16 years and older ..... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Age, years:

 16 to 24 .................................... 17.7 16.2 16.2 16.0 14.3 14.6 14.5 14.4

 25 to 54 .................................... 55.9 56.8 54.5 52.8 49.0 47.2 46.8 46.3

 25 to 34 ................................ 22.7 18.2 17.3 17.1 17.0 15.6 16.0 15.9

 35 to 44 ................................ 19.9 20.8 19.0 17.0 16.3 16.4 15.3 15.8

 45 to 54 ................................ 13.3 17.7 18.6 18.7 15.7 15.2 15.5 14.6

 55 to 64 .................................... 11.0 11.4 13.3 15.1 16.5 14.0 13.7 14.1

 65 and older ............................. 15.5 15.6 15.5 16.1 20.2 24.3 25.0 25.3

Sex:

 Men ........................................... 47.8 48.0 48.3 48.2 48.3 48.3 48.3 48.5

 Women ...................................... 52.2 52.0 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.7 51.5

.....................................................

Race:

 White ........................................ 84.9 82.9 81.6 80.6 78.8 76.8 74.8 72.9

 Black ........................................ 11.4 11.7 11.7 12.2 12.7 13.2 13.7 14.1

 Asian ........................................ 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.7 5.6 6.5 7.5 8.4

 All other groups ........................ — — 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.5 4.0 4.7

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin .......................... 8.4 11.3 12.9 13.8 16.3 18.7 21.0 23.2

 Other than Hispanic origin ....... 91.6 88.7 87.1 86.2 83.7 81.3 79.0 76.8

 White non-Hispanic ............... 77.5 72.2 69.6 67.7 63.8 59.6 55.6 51.7

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

 Annual growth rate (percent)

Total, 16 years and older ...................... 1.2 1.2 1.0 .8 .8 .7 .7

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ................................................. .3 1.3 .7 –.3 1.0 .7 .6

 25 to 54 ................................................. 1.3 .6 .2 .1 .4 .7 .6

 25 to 34 ............................................. –1.0 .2 .7 .8 .0 1.0 .6

 35 to 44 ............................................. 1.6 –.6 –1.2 .4 .9 .1 1.0

 45 to 54 ............................................. 4.1 2.3 1.1 –.9 .5 .9 .1

 55 to 64 ................................................. 1.6 4.5 3.6 1.7 –.8 .6 .9

 65 and older .......................................... 1.3 1.1 1.7 3.2 2.7 1.1 .8

Sex:

 Men ........................................................ 1.2 1.4 1.0 .8 .8 .7 .7

 Women ................................................... 1.1 1.1 1.0 .8 .8 .7 .7

..................................................................

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity

See footnotes at end of table.

Percent change—continued

1

1
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 25

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as being of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders.

 NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.

Race: .........................................................

 White ..................................................... .9 .9 .7 .6 .6 .5 .4

 Black ..................................................... 1.5 1.3 1.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.0

 Asian ..................................................... 2.8 1.1 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8

 All other groups ..................................... ... ... 13.4 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.1

..................................................................

Ethnicity: ...................................................

 Hispanic origin ....................................... 4.2 4.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.9 1.7

 Other than Hispanic origin .................... .9 .9 .8 .5 .5 .5 .4

 White non-Hispanic ............................ .5 .5 .4 .2 .1 .0 .0

Table 2. Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected

 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity 1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

1

The growth rate of the civilian noninstitutional population

was 1.2 percent on an annual basis during 1990–2000 and 1.2

percent again between 2000 and 2005. The rate is projected to

decrease to 1.0 percent over the 2005–10 period and to slow

even further over the decades that follow. The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow at an annual rate

of 0.8 percent over the 2005–50 period, reaching 322.6 million

in 2050.

Table 2 also shows the shares of the civilian noninstitutional population for several age groups. The 16- to 24-

year-old age group made up 16.2 percent of the population in

each of 2000 and 2005. This group’s share of the population is

projected to decline to 14.4 percent in 2050. The share of the

25- to 54-year-old age group was 55.9 percent in 1990 and 56.8

percent in 2000 and is projected to be 46.3 percent in 2050.

The 55-years-and-older age group accounted for 26.5

percent of the civilian noninstitutional population in 1990 and

28.8 percent in 2005 and is projected to be 39.4 percent in

2050. The share of those aged 65 years and older also is

expected to increase, and the share of those under 25 years is

anticipated to decrease. From 1990 to 2005, the share of the

former group in the population increased. In sharp contrast

to the pattern for the youngest age group, the 65-year-andolder civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow

steadily and increase its share of the population from 15.5

percent in 2005 to 25.3 percent in 2050.

With the passage of each decade, immigration will continue to change the size and composition of the population in

various ways. Immigration is expected to spur the growth rate

of certain racial and ethnic categories, such as Asians and

Hispanics. Immigration also affects the age composition of

the population. Immigrants to the United States are predominantly younger than the native-born population, so their

entry into the country adds to the population of the younger

age groups. Immigrants offset the slow growth of the nativeborn population and lower the average age of the workingage population.

The rate of growth of the Hispanic population is expected

to be greater than that of all other racial and ethnic groups.

Hispanics constituted 12.9 percent of the share of the civilian

noninstitutional population in 2005 and are projected to

increase their share to 16.3 percent in 2020 and reach 23.2

percent by 2050.

Labor force participation

Table 3 shows the labor force participation rates of the different age, sex, race, and ethnic groups for the years 1990,

2000, and 2005 and the projected rates through 2050. The

civilian labor force participation rate is the proportion of the

civilian noninstitutional population that is in the labor force.

Overall, changes in the labor force participation rate over time

are fairly consistent across the different age, sex, race, and

ethnic groups. The overall labor force participation rate was

66.5 percent in 1990 and peaked at 67.1 percent during the

period from 1997 to 2000. Every year after 2000, the rate

declined gradually, from 66.8 percent in 2001 to 66.0 percent in

2004 and 2005. According to the BLS projections, the overall

participation rate will continue its gradual decrease each decade and reach 60.4 percent in 2050.

Labor force participation rate by sex. Men and women

have differed in their labor force participation rates throughout

the history of U.S. labor markets and have affected the overall

labor force participation rates in different ways. Historically,

the labor force participation rate of men has been decreasing

since the 1950s as a result of various factors. For example, the

Social Security Act was amended in 1960 to make individuals

under 50 years eligible for disability payments. In contrast,

the labor force participation rate of women has increased

 Annual growth rate (percent)—

continued
26 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

Population

Labor force

Population

Labor force

Population

Labor force

Chart 3. Population and labor force, in millions, 1950, 2000, and projected 2050

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Men Women

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

25–29

30–34

20–24

15–19

5–9

10–14

10 8 6 4 2 10 2 4 6 8

0–4

0 0 Age,

years

1950

2000

2050

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

25–29

30–34

20–24

15–19

5–9

10–14

12 10 8 6 6 4 4 2 0 2 0 10 8 12

0–4

Age,

years

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

25–29

30–34

20–24

15–19

5–9

10–14

0–4

14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Age, 0 10 2 4 6 8 12 14

years

Men Women

Men Women
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 27

Table 3. Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010

 to 2050

[Percent]

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Total, 16 years and older 66.5 67.1 66.0 65.9 64.5 61.7 60.8 60.4

 Age, years

 16 to 24 ................................... 67.3 65.4 60.8 59.5 56.5 56.3 56.2 55.7

 16 to 19 ............................... 53.7 52.0 43.7 40.8 35.9 35.4 35.1 34.5

 20 to 24 ............................... 77.8 77.8 74.6 74.7 73.8 73.5 73.3 73.1

 25 to 54 ................................... 83.5 84.0 82.8 83.1 83.7 83.5 83.4 83.4

 25 to 34 ............................... 83.6 84.6 82.8 84.5 85.6 85.1 84.9 84.7

 35 to 44 ............................... 85.2 84.8 83.8 83.2 82.8 82.7 82.8 82.9

 45 to 54 ............................... 80.7 82.5 81.7 81.7 82.6 82.5 82.4 82.5

 55 and older ............................ 30.1 32.4 37.2 40.1 41.9 37.1 35.3 35.1

 55 to 64 ............................... 55.9 59.3 62.9 64.0 67.0 66.4 66.7 66.2

 55 to 59 ............................ 67.0 68.9 71.4 72.8 75.2 75.0 74.9 74.8

 60 to 64 ............................ 44.8 47.2 52.4 53.7 58.3 57.9 57.6 57.4

 60 to 61 ........................ 55.1 57.1 59.4 61.8 66.0 65.9 65.7 65.5

 62 to 64 ........................ 38.0 40.2 46.7 47.8 52.8 52.2 51.7 51.6

 65 and older ......................... 11.8 12.9 15.1 17.5 21.5 20.2 18.1 17.7

 65 to 74 ............................ 16.7 19.2 22.4 25.0 28.6 27.9 27.3 27.6

 65 to 69 ........................ 21.0 24.5 28.3 31.1 36.1 35.9 35.7 35.7

 70 to 74 ........................ 11.3 13.5 16.3 16.9 19.2 18.9 18.4 18.1

 75 and older ......................... 4.3 5.3 6.4 8.2 10.8 10.6 10.1 9.4

 Sex, and age in years

Men ............................................. 76.4 74.8 73.3 72.6 70.0 67.4 66.5 66.0

 16 to 24 ................................... 71.8 68.6 62.9 60.4 56.3 56.2 56.2 55.8

 16 to 19 ............................... 55.7 52.8 43.2 40.0 34.3 34.0 33.7 33.3

 20 to 24 ............................... 84.4 82.6 79.1 77.1 75.0 74.8 74.6 74.4

 25 to 54 ................................... 93.4 91.6 90.5 90.7 90.4 90.1 90.0 90.2

 25 to 34 ............................... 94.1 93.4 91.7 94.7 95.4 95.0 94.7 94.5

 35 to 44 ............................... 94.3 92.7 92.1 91.3 90.2 90.0 90.1 90.2

 45 to 54 ............................... 90.7 88.6 87.7 86.5 85.1 85.2 85.1 85.5

 55 and older ............................ 39.4 40.1 44.2 46.1 46.4 41.8 40.1 39.7

 55 to 64 ............................... 67.8 67.3 69.3 68.7 69.1 69.0 69.4 69.0

 55 to 59 ............................ 79.9 77.1 77.6 77.2 76.4 76.3 76.2 76.1

 60 to 64 ............................ 55.5 55.0 58.0 58.6 61.3 61.6 61.8 61.5

 60 to 61 ........................ 68.8 66.0 65.6 65.3 66.2 66.5 66.5 66.3

 62 to 64 ........................ 46.5 47.0 52.5 53.6 57.7 58.1 58.4 58.1

 65 and older ......................... 16.3 17.7 19.8 22.3 26.1 24.7 22.4 21.9

 65 to 74 ............................ 21.4 24.6 27.2 29.7 32.8 32.2 31.9 32.2

 65 to 69 ........................ 26.0 30.3 33.6 36.3 40.8 40.9 41.0 41.0

 70 to 74 ........................ 15.4 18.0 20.7 20.6 22.4 22.2 21.9 21.7

 75 and older ......................... 7.1 8.1 9.4 11.6 14.5 14.3 13.2 12.0

Women ........................................ 57.5 59.9 59.3 59.7 59.4 56.5 55.5 55.1

 16 to 24 ................................... 62.9 63.0 58.6 58.6 56.7 56.4 56.3 55.7

 16 to 19 ............................... 51.6 51.2 44.2 41.5 37.5 36.9 36.4 35.7

 20 to 24 ............................... 71.3 73.1 70.1 72.3 72.6 72.1 72.1 71.8

 25 to 54 ................................... 74.0 76.7 75.3 75.7 77.1 76.9 76.8 76.6

 25 to 34 ............................... 73.5 76.1 73.9 74.5 76.0 75.4 75.2 75.0

 35 to 44 ............................... 76.4 77.2 75.8 75.4 75.5 75.6 75.6 75.7

 45 to 54 ............................... 71.2 76.8 76.0 77.1 80.1 79.9 79.7 79.5

 55 and older ............................ 22.9 26.1 31.4 35.0 38.1 33.0 31.2 31.0

 55 to 64 ............................... 45.2 51.9 57.0 59.7 65.0 64.0 64.2 63.6

 55 to 59 ............................ 55.3 61.4 65.6 68.7 74.2 73.8 73.7 73.5

 60 to 64 ............................ 35.5 40.2 45.8 49.2 55.5 54.4 53.7 53.4

 60 to 61 ........................ 42.9 49.0 53.8 58.5 65.8 65.2 64.9 64.7

 62 to 64 ........................ 30.7 34.1 40.0 42.4 48.3 46.8 45.5 45.4

 65 and older ......................... 8.6 9.4 11.5 13.9 17.9 16.6 14.6 14.3

 65 to 74 ............................ 13.0 14.9 18.4 21.0 25.0 24.1 23.3 23.4

 65 to 69 ........................ 17.0 19.5 23.7 26.6 31.9 31.5 30.8 30.7

 70 to 74 ........................ 8.2 10.0 12.8 13.8 16.4 16.1 15.4 14.9

 75 and older ......................... 2.7 3.6 4.5 6.0 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.4

 Race and sex

White ........................................... 66.9 67.3 66.3 66.4 64.6 61.7 60.9 60.5

 Men .......................................... 77.1 75.5 74.1 73.4 70.6 67.9 67.0 66.7

 Women ..................................... 57.4 59.5 58.9 59.6 58.8 55.9 54.9 54.6

Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

See footnotes at end of table.
28 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

Black ................................... 64.0 65.8 64.2 63.1 63.3 60.9 59.9 59.1

 Men .................................. 71.0 69.2 67.3 65.3 63.4 61.4 60.6 59.6

 Women ............................. 58.3 63.1 61.6 61.3 63.2 60.5 59.3 58.6

Asian ................................... 65.4 67.2 66.1 66.4 65.7 63.0 61.0 59.9

 Men .................................. 75.0 76.1 74.8 75.3 74.1 71.3 69.5 68.4

 Women ............................. 57.4 59.2 58.2 58.6 58.5 56.1 54.1 52.8

All other groups .................. — — 67.0 64.1 63.9 62.6 62.9 62.9

 Men .................................. — — 72.0 71.6 71.0 69.9 70.3 70.3

 Women ............................. — — 62.3 56.9 56.9 55.5 55.6 55.5

 Ethnicity and sex

Hispanic .............................. 67.4 69.7 68.0 68.4 68.7 66.4 64.5 63.2

 Men .................................. 81.4 81.5 80.1 78.7 76.9 74.4 72.2 70.7

 Women ............................. 53.1 57.5 55.3 58.0 60.5 58.5 56.8 55.8

White non-Hispanic ............. 66.8 66.9 66.0 66.1 63.9 60.8 60.1 60.0

 Men .................................. 76.5 74.6 72.9 72.5 69.4 66.3 65.6 65.5

 Women ............................. 57.8 59.8 59.5 60.0 58.8 55.5 54.8 54.8

Table 3. Continued—Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected

 2010 to 2050

[Percent]

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as being of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders.

NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.

1

Race and sex–continued

significantly since the 1950s and has compensated for the

decline in the labor force participation rate of men. The overall labor force participation rate consists of the joint

contributions of the labor force participation rates of both

men and women, which take into account their age structure

or their population weights in each age, race, and ethnic

category.

1. Men. The participation rate of men has been continually

decreasing, having registered 76.4 percent in 1990, 74.8

percent in 2000, and 73.3 percent in 2005. The rate is projected

to be 70.0 percent in 2020 and 66.0 percent in 2050.

2. Women. Women’s labor force participation, a low 33.9

percent in 1950, increased significantly during the 1970s and

1980s and reached 57.5 percent in 1990. In 1999, the women’s

participation rate reached a peak of 60 percent. By 2000,

however, the rate had declined slightly to 59.9 percent, and

since then it has been displaying a pattern of slow decline in

each successive period, falling to 59.3 percent in 2005. The

participation rate of women is projected to be 59.4 percent in

2020 and 55.1 percent in 2050. Looking back at women’s

participation rates during the past three decades reveals that

the peak appears to have been reached and the rapid increase

of the 1970–80 era is over. Although women’s participation

has fast approached that of men, the women’s participation

rate is expected to remain below the men’s rate through 2050.

The women’s labor force participation rate is not expected

to be high enough to offset the decline in the men’s participation rate in the future. As a result, the overall labor force participation rate is expected to decline gradually in the coming

years.

Labor force participation rate by age. The labor force

participation rate differs among the various age groups,

reflecting a number of factors that come into play at different

ages.

1. Youths 16 to 24 years. The youth labor market consists

of the teenage group of 16- to 19-year-olds and young adults

aged 20 to 24 years. The labor force participation rates of the

two groups have been different from each other in the past.

The different shares of students and nonstudents in the two

age groups has been part of the explanation for the difference

in their participation rates. Because students are less likely to

participate in the labor force, increases in school attendance

at the secondary and college levels and, especially, increases

in school attendance during the summer, significantly reduce

the labor force participation rate of youths. The labor force

participation rate of the 16- to 19-year-old group was 53.7

percent in 1990, declined to 52.0 percent in 2000, and fell further

to 43.7 percent in 2005. The Bureau projects that the downward trend in the participation rate of 16- to 19-year-olds will

continue and the rate will reach 34.5 percent in 2050.
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 29

The labor force participation rate of 20- to 24-year-olds

was 77.8 percent in both 1990 and 2000. In 2005, the rate

declined significantly, to 74.6 percent.

The rise in school attendance during the past couple of

decades has been a major contributor to the decrease in the

labor force participation rate of both youth groups.6

 The

participation rate of the 20- to 24-year age group is projected

to decrease further, to 73.8 percent in 2020 and 73.1 percent in

2050. The decrease in the labor force participation rate of

youths—especially 16- to 19-year-old men—has been a major

contributor to the decrease in the overall labor force participation rate.

2. Prime-aged workers 25 to 54 years. Historically, all age

cohorts in this group have exhibited strong attachment to the

labor market. The group’s participation rate was 83.5 percent

in 1990, 84.0 percent in 2000, and 82.8 percent in 2005. The rate

is projected to be 83.4 percent in 2050.

Both men and women have contributed to the strong labor

force participation rates of this age group in the past. The

participation rate of 25- to 54-year-old men was 90.5 percent

in 2005 and is projected to be 90.7 percent in 2010 and to

decrease slightly to 90.2 percent in 2050. The participation

rate of 25- to 54-year-old women, by contrast, is expected to

increase from its 2005 level of 75.3 percent to 75.7 percent in

2010 and 76.6 percent in 2050.

3. Workers 55 years and older. As workers move out of the

prime-age category, reach the older age cohorts, and go through

early and normal retirement, their labor force participation rate

decreases dramatically.

The participation rate of the 55- to 64-year-old age group

increased sharply from 55.9 percent in 1990 to 59.3 percent in

2000 and 62.9 percent in 2005. Still, the participation rate of

the group in 2005 was lower by nearly 19 percentage points

than the rate of those aged 45 to 54 years, which stood at 81.7

percent the same year.

A review of the historical data shows that, as a result of a

variety of factors, the labor force participation rate of the 55-

years-and-older age group has increased significantly since

the end of the 1980s. The continued gradual increase in the

labor force participation rate of this group, multiplied by the

sheer number of baby boomers in the group, is expected to

affect the overall labor force participation rate and keep it

from declining further in the future.

Compared with all other age groups of the labor force, the 55-

years-and-older group has the most potential to increase its

labor force participation rate further, and that may contribute

to an increase in the growth of the labor force in the future.

4. Race and ethnicity. Changes in the labor force participation rates of the different racial and ethnic categories

vary over time. However, judging by past data, differences in

labor force participation by race and ethnic origin usually are

not as great as those by the age and sex categories.

Hispanics have a younger population relative to other

racial and ethnic groups and thus have higher aggregate labor

force participation rates. Hispanic men have the highest labor

force participation rate of any labor force group, in large part

reflecting their young age structure.

The participation rate of Hispanics was 67.4 percent in

1990, 69.7 percent in 2000, and 68.0 percent in 2005. The rate is

projected to be 68.7 percent in 2020. As a result of aging of the

Hispanic population, the Hispanic labor force participation

rate is expected to decline and reach 63.2 percent in 2050.

Asians have high participation rates as well. Their participation rate was 65.4 percent in 1990, 67.2 percent in 2000, and

66.1 percent in 2005. The Asian rate is expected to be 65.7 percent in 2020 and 59.9 percent in 2050.

The labor force participation rate of blacks stood at 64.0

percent in 1990, 65.8 percent in 2000, and 64.2 percent in 2005.

The black participation rate is projected to be 63.3 percent in

2020 and 59.1 percent in 2050. The decline in the labor force

participation rate of blacks between 2020 and 2050 is the result

of the changing age structure of the black population.

The projected labor force

As the various age, sex, race, and ethnicity groups experience

changes in their populations and participation rates, the labor

force also experiences change. The U.S. labor force was 125.8

million in 1990, 142.6 million in 2000, and 149.3 million in 2005.

The labor force is projected to reach 166.4 million in 2020 and

194.8 million in 2050.

The labor force and its rate of growth on an annual basis,

both in the past and projected to 2050, are shown in table 4.

The annual growth of the labor force peaked at 2.6 percent

during the 1970–80 period, mainly the result of the continued

entry of the baby-boom generation into the job market, but

also a consequence of the significant acceleration of the labor

force participation rate of women. The growth of the labor

force has declined since that period. The annual growth rate

of the labor force was 1.3 percent during 1990–2000, slowing

to 0.9 percent from 2000 to 2005. The rate is projected to be 0.6

percent over the 2000–50 timeframe.

The discussion that follows breaks down the projected

labor force by the different age, sex, racial, and ethnic

categories.

Projected labor force by sex. Projections of the labor force

by sex are based on past participation rates and shares of the

population and therefore differ between men and women.

1. Men. The number of men in the labor force has always
30 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Total, 16 years

and older ............... 125,840 142,583 149,320 156,511 166,355 172,910 183,427 194,757

........................................

Age, years: .....................

 16 to 24 ....................... 22,492 22,520 22,290 22,567 20,852 22,979 24,518 25,808

 16 to 19 .................... 7,792 8,270 7,164 6,898 6,047 6,541 6,841 7,195

 20 to 24 .................... 14,700 14,250 15,127 15,668 14,805 16,439 17,677 18,612

 25 to 54 ....................... 88,322 101,394 102,773 104,269 105,873 110,241 117,656 124,392

 25 to 34 .................... 35,929 32,756 32,341 34,241 37,510 37,169 41,045 43,462

 35 to 44 .................... 32,145 37,566 36,030 33,657 34,834 37,942 38,228 42,165

 45 to 54 .................... 20,248 31,072 34,402 36,372 33,530 35,130 38,383 38,766

55 and older ................. 15,026 18,669 24,257 29,675 39,629 39,689 41,253 44,556

55 to 64 .................... 11,575 14,357 18,979 23,013 28,427 25,986 27,594 30,076

65 and older ............. 3,451 4,312 5,278 6,663 11,202 13,704 13,659 14,481

65 to 74 ................ 2,952 3,505 4,212 5,259 8,970 10,456 9,574 10,343

75 and older ......... 498 807 1,066 1,404 2,232 3,248 4,085 4,138

Men, 16 years

and older ...................... 69,011 76,280 80,033 83,179 87,215 91,144 96,948 103,183

 16 to 24 ....................... 11,960 11,789 11,644 11,509 10,416 11,497 12,289 12,960

 16 to 19 .................... 4,094 4,268 3,590 3,435 2,924 3,172 3,330 3,516

 20 to 24 .................... 7,866 7,521 8,054 8,074 7,491 8,325 8,958 9,444

 25 to 54 ....................... 48,456 54,206 55,385 56,138 56,638 59,054 63,032 66,773

 25 to 34 .................... 19,872 17,844 17,837 19,050 20,744 20,542 22,676 24,050

 35 to 44 .................... 17,481 20,093 19,495 18,221 18,844 20,498 20,645 22,778

 45 to 54 .................... 11,103 16,269 18,053 18,867 17,049 18,013 19,711 19,945

 55 and older ................ 8,594 10,285 12,904 15,533 20,161 20,593 21,628 23,450

55 to 64 .................... 6,627 7,796 10,045 11,879 14,165 13,136 14,093 15,416

65 and older ............. 1,967 2,489 2,859 3,654 5,996 7,456 7,534 8,034

65 to 74 ................ 1,664 2,018 2,346 2,875 4,773 5,641 5,276 5,780

75 and older ......... 303 471 612 779 1,223 1,815 2,258 2,254

Women, 16 years

and older ....................... 56,829 66,303 69,288 73,332 79,140 81,766 86,479 91,574

 16 to 24 ....................... 10,532 10,731 10,647 11,057 10,437 11,482 12,229 12,848

 16 to 19 .................... 3,698 4,002 3,574 3,463 3,122 3,369 3,510 3,679

 20 to 24 .................... 6,834 6,729 7,073 7,594 7,314 8,113 8,719 9,169

 25 to 54 ....................... 39,866 47,188 47,387 48,132 49,235 51,187 54,625 57,620

 25 to 34 .................... 16,058 14,912 14,503 15,191 16,765 16,627 18,370 19,412

 35 to 44 .................... 14,663 17,473 16,535 15,436 15,989 17,444 17,583 19,387

 45 to 54 .................... 9,145 14,803 16,349 17,505 16,481 17,116 18,672 18,820

 55 and older ................ 6,431 8,384 11,253 14,143 19,468 19,097 19,625 21,106

 55 to 64 .................... 4,948 6,561 8,934 11,134 14,262 12,849 13,500 14,660

65 and older ............. 1,483 1,823 2,319 3,009 5,206 6,248 6,125 6,446

65 to 74 ................ 1,288 1,487 1,866 2,384 4,197 4,814 4,298 4,562

75 and older ......... 195 336 454 625 1,009 1,433 1,827 1,884

Race:

 White ........................... 107,447 118,545 122,299 126,941 131,333 132,849 137,354 142,371

 Men .......................... 59,638 64,466 66,694 68,596 70,211 71,450 74,044 76,920

 Women ..................... 47,809 54,079 55,605 58,345 61,121 61,400 63,310 65,451

 Black ........................... 13,740 16,397 17,013 18,334 20,739 22,519 24,661 26,809

 Men .......................... 6,802 7,702 7,998 8,576 9,460 10,430 11,561 12,651

 Women ..................... 6,938 8,695 9,014 9,758 11,279 12,088 13,100 14,158

 Asian ........................... 4,652 6,270 6,503 7,473 9,457 11,476 13,759 16,124

 Men .......................... 2,570 3,362 3,500 3,946 4,901 5,917 7,101 8,348

 Women ..................... 2,082 2,908 3,002 3,526 4,556 5,559 6,658 7,776

All other groups .............. — 1,371 3,505 3,764 4,826 6,066 7,653 9,453

 Men .......................... — 754 1,840 2,061 2,643 3,347 4,242 5,264

 Women ..................... — 617 1,665 1,703 2,183 2,719 3,411 4,188

See footnotes at end of table.

Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

1

Level
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 31

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin .................... 10,720 16,689 19,824 22,442 28,795 34,734 40,842 47,317

 Men ................................. 6,546 9,923 11,985 12,948 16,087 19,363 22,702 26,204

 Women ............................ 4,174 6,767 7,839 9,494 12,708 15,371 18,140 21,114

 Other than Hispanic origin . 115,120 125,894 129,496 134,069 137,560 138,176 142,585 147,440

 Men ................................. 62,465 66,357 68,048 70,231 71,128 71,781 74,246 76,979

 Women ............................ 52,655 59,536 61,449 63,838 66,432 66,395 68,339 70,460

 White non-Hispanic ............ 97,818 102,729 103,891 106,272 105,187 101,480 100,709 100,189

 Men ................................. 53,731 55,040 55,492 56,595 55,486 53,819 53,515 53,372

 Women ............................ 44,087 47,689 48,399 49,677 49,701 47,662 47,194 46,817

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

 Change

 Total, 16 years and older ............ 16,743 6,737 7,191 9,844 6,555 10,517 11,330

Age, years: .........................................

 16 to 24 ........................................... 28 -230 277 –1,715 2,127 1,539 1,290

 16 to 19 ........................................ 478 –1,106 –266 –851 494 300 354

 20 to 24 ........................................ –450 877 541 –863 1,634 1,238 935

 25 to 54 ........................................... 13,072 1,379 1,496 1,604 4,368 7,415 6,736

 25 to 34 ........................................ –3,173 –415 1,900 3,269 –341 3,876 2,417

 35 to 44 ........................................ 5,421 –1,536 –2,373 1,177 3,108 286 3,937

 45 to 54 ........................................ 10,824 3,330 1,970 –2,842 1,600 3,253 383

 55 and older .................................... 3,643 5,588 5,418 9,954 60 1,564 3,303

55 to 64 ........................................ 2,782 4,622 4,034 5,414 –2,441 1,608 2,482

65 and older ................................. 861 966 1,385 4,539 2,502 –45 822

65 to 74 .................................... 553 707 1,047 3,711 1,486 –882 769

75 and older ............................. 309 259 338 828 1,016 837 53

Men, 16 years and older .................... 7,269 3,753 3,146 4,036 3,929 5,804 6,235

 16 to 24 ........................................... –171 –145 –135 –1,094 1,082 791 671

 16 to 19 ........................................ 174 –678 –155 –511 248 158 186

 20 to 24 ........................................ –345 533 20 –583 834 633 485

 25 to 54 ........................................... 5,750 1,179 753 501 2,416 3,977 3,741

 25 to 34 ........................................ –2,028 –7 1,213 1,695 –202 2,133 1,374

 35 to 44 ........................................ 2,612 –598 –1,274 623 1,654 147 2,132

 45 to 54 ........................................ 5,166 1,784 814 –1,817 964 1,697 234

 55 and older .................................... 1,691 2,619 2,629 4,629 431 1,035 1,823

55 to 64 ........................................ 1,169 2,249 1,834 2,286 –1,029 957 1,322

65 and older ................................. 522 370 795 2,342 1,460 78 500

65 to 74 .................................... 354 328 529 1,898 868 –366 505

75 and older ............................. 168 141 167 444 592 443 –4

Women, 16 years and older ............... 9,474 2,985 4,044 5,808 2,626 4,713 5,095

 16 to 24 ........................................... 199 –84 410 –621 1,045 747 619

 16 to 19 ........................................ 304 –428 –111 –341 246 142 169

 20 to 24 ........................................ –105 344 521 –280 799 606 450

 25 to 54 ........................................... 7,322 199 745 1,103 1,952 3,438 2,995

 25 to 34 ........................................ –1,146 –409 688 1,574 –138 1,743 1,042

 35 to 44 ........................................ 2,810 –938 –1,099 554 1,454 139 1,804

 45 to 54 ........................................ 5,658 1,546 1,156 –1,025 636 1,556 148

 55 and older .................................... 1,953 2,869 2,890 5,325 –371 529 1,480

55 to 64 ........................................ 1,613 2,373 2,200 3,128 –1,413 651 1,159

65 and older ................................. 340 496 690 2,197 1,042 –122 321

65 to 74 .................................... 199 379 518 1,813 618 –516 264

75 and older .............................. 141 118 171 384 424 394 57

Race:

 White ............................................... 11,098 3,754 4,642 4,392 1,516 4,505 5,017

 Men .............................................. 4,828 2,228 1,902 1,615 1,239 2,594 2,876

 Women ......................................... 6,270 1,526 2,740 2,776 279 1,910 2,141

 Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

 [Numbers in thousands]

 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

See footnotes at end of table.

Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

Level—continued
32 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

 Black ............................................... 2,657 616 1,321 2,405 1,780 2,142 2,148

 Men .............................................. 900 296 578 884 970 1,131 1,090

 Women ......................................... 1,757 319 744 1,521 809 1,012 1,058

............................................................

 Asian ............................................... 1,656 233 970 1,984 2,019 2,283 2,365

 Men .............................................. 792 138 446 955 1,016 1,184 1,247

 Women ......................................... 864 94 524 1,030 1,003 1,099 1,118

All other groups ............................. ... ... 259 1,062 1,240 1,587 1,800

 Men ............................................ ... ... 221 582 704 895 1,022

 Women ....................................... ... ... 38 480 536 692 777

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ............................... 5,969 3,135 2,618 6,353 5,939 6,108 6,475

 Men ............................................ 3,377 2,062 963 3,139 3,276 3,339 3,502

 Women ....................................... 2,593 1,072 1,655 3,214 2,663 2,769 2,974

 Other than Hispanic origin ............ 10,774 3,602 4,573 3,491 616 4,409 4,855

 Men ............................................ 3,892 1,691 2,183 897 653 2,465 2,733

 Women ....................................... 6,881 1,913 2,389 2,594 –37 1,944 2,121

 White non-Hispanic ....................... 4,911 1,162 2,381 –1,085 –3,707 –771 –520

 Men ............................................ 1,309 452 1,103 –1,109 –1,667 –304 –143

 Women ....................................... 3,602 710 1,278 24 –2,039 –468 –377

 Percent change

 Total, 16 years and older .......... 13.3 4.7 4.8 6.3 3.9 6.1 6.2

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ......................................... .1 –1.0 1.2 –7.6 10.2 6.7 5.3

 16 to 19 ...................................... 6.1 –13.4 –3.7 –12.3 8.2 4.6 5.2

 20 to 24 ...................................... –3.1 6.2 3.6 –5.5 11.0 7.5 5.3

 25 to 54 ......................................... 14.8 1.4 1.5 1.5 4.1 6.7 5.7

 25 to 34 ...................................... –8.8 –1.3 5.9 9.5 –.9 10.4 5.9

 35 to 44 ...................................... 16.9 –4.1 –6.6 3.5 8.9 .8 10.3

 45 to 54 ...................................... 53.5 10.7 5.7 –7.8 4.8 9.3 1.0

 55 and older .................................. 24.2 29.9 22.3 33.5 .2 3.9 8.0

55 to 64 ...................................... 24.0 32.2 21.3 23.5 –8.6 6.2 9.0

65 and older ............................... 24.9 22.4 26.2 68.1 22.3 –.3 6.0

 65 to 74 ................................. 18.7 20.2 24.9 70.6 16.6 –8.4 8.0

 75 and older .......................... 62.0 32.1 31.7 59.0 45.5 25.8 1.3

Men, 16 years and older .................. 10.5 4.9 3.9 4.9 4.5 6.4 6.4

 16 to 24 ......................................... –1.4 –1.2 –1.2 -9.5 10.4 6.9 5.5

 16 to 19 ...................................... 4.3 –15.9 –4.3 –14.9 8.5 5.0 5.6

 20 to 24 ...................................... –4.4 7.1 .2 –7.2 11.1 7.6 5.4

 25 to 54 ......................................... 11.9 2.2 1.4 .9 4.3 6.7 5.9

 25 to 34 ...................................... –10.2 .0 6.8 8.9 –1.0 10.4 6.1

 35 to 44 ...................................... 14.9 –3.0 –6.5 3.4 8.8 .7 10.3

 45 to 54 ...................................... 46.5 11.0 4.5 –9.6 5.7 9.4 1.2

 55 and older .................................. 19.7 25.5 20.4 29.8 2.1 5.0 8.4

 55 to 64 ...................................... 17.6 28.8 18.3 19.2 –7.3 7.3 9.4

65 and older ............................... 26.5 14.9 27.8 64.1 24.4 1.0 6.6

65 to 74 .................................. 21.3 16.3 22.6 66.0 18.2 –6.5 9.6

75 and older ........................... 55.4 29.9 27.2 57.0 48.4 24.4 –.2

Women, 16 years and older ............. 16.7 4.5 5.8 7.9 3.3 5.8 5.9

 16 to 24 ......................................... 1.9 –.8 3.9 –5.6 10.0 6.5 5.1

 16 to 19 ...................................... 8.2 –10.7 –3.1 –9.8 7.9 4.2 4.8

 20 to 24 ...................................... –1.5 5.1 7.4 –3.7 10.9 7.5 5.2

 25 to 54 ......................................... 18.4 .4 1.6 2.3 4.0 6.7 5.5

 25 to 34 ...................................... –7.1 –2.7 4.7 10.4 –.8 10.5 5.7

 35 to 44 ...................................... 19.2 –5.4 –6.6 3.6 9.1 .8 10.3

 45 to 54 ...................................... 61.9 10.4 7.1 –5.9 3.9 9.1 .8

Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

See footnotes at end of table.

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity

1

Change—continued
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 33

 55 and older .................................. 30.4 34.2 25.7 37.7 –1.9 2.8 7.5

 55 to 64 ...................................... 32.6 36.2 24.6 28.1 –9.9 5.1 8.6

 65 and older ............................... 22.9 27.2 29.8 73.0 20.0 –2.0 5.2

 65 to 74 .................................. 15.5 25.5 27.7 76.1 14.7 –10.7 6.1

 75 and older ........................... 72.3 35.1 37.8 61.4 42.0 27.5 3.1

Race:

 White ............................................. 10.3 3.2 3.8 3.5 1.2 3.4 3.7

 Men ............................................ 8.1 3.5 2.9 2.4 1.8 3.6 3.9

 Women ....................................... 13.1 2.8 4.9 4.8 .5 3.1 3.4

 Black ............................................. 19.3 3.8 7.8 13.1 8.6 9.5 8.7

 Men ............................................ 13.2 3.8 7.2 10.3 10.3 10.8 9.4

 Women ....................................... 25.3 3.7 8.3 15.6 7.2 8.4 8.1

 Asian ............................................. 35.9 3.7 14.9 26.5 21.3 19.9 17.2

 Men ............................................ 30.8 4.1 12.7 24.2 20.7 20.0 17.6

 Women ....................................... 39.7 3.2 17.5 29.2 22.0 19.8 16.8

All other groups ............................. ... ... 7.4 28.2 25.7 26.2 23.5

 Men ............................................ ... ... 12.0 28.2 26.6 26.7 24.1

 Women ....................................... ... ... 2.3 28.2 24.6 25.5 22.8

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ............................... 55.7 18.8 13.2 28.3 20.6 17.6 15.9

 Men ............................................ 51.6 20.8 8.0 24.2 20.4 17.2 15.4

 Women ....................................... 62.1 15.8 21.1 33.9 21.0 18.0 16.4

 Other than Hispanic origin ............ 9.4 2.9 3.5 2.6 .4 3.2 3.4

 Men ............................................ 6.2 2.5 3.2 1.3 .9 3.4 3.7

 Women ....................................... 13.1 3.2 3.9 4.1 –.1 2.9 3.1

 White non-Hispanic ....................... 5.0 1.1 2.3 –1.0 –3.5 –.8 –.5

 Men ............................................ 2.4 .8 2.0 –2.0 –3.0 –.6 –.3

 Women ....................................... 8.2 1.5 2.6 .0 –4.1 –1.0 –.8

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Percent distribution

 Total, 16 years

and older .......... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ..................... 17.9 15.8 14.9 14.4 12.5 13.3 13.4 13.3

 16 to 19 .................. 6.2 5.8 4.8 4.4 3.6 3.8 3.7 3.7

 20 to 24 .................. 11.7 10.0 10.1 10.0 8.9 9.5 9.6 9.6

 25 to 54 ..................... 70.2 71.1 68.8 66.6 63.6 63.8 64.1 63.9

 25 to 34 .................. 28.6 23.0 21.7 21.9 22.5 21.5 22.4 22.3

 35 to 44 .................. 25.5 26.3 24.1 21.5 20.9 21.9 20.8 21.7

 45 to 54 .................. 16.1 21.8 23.0 23.2 20.2 20.3 20.9 19.9

 55 and older .............. 11.9 13.1 16.2 19.0 23.8 23.0 22.5 22.9

55 to 64 .................. 9.2 10.1 12.7 14.7 17.1 15.0 15.0 15.4

65 and older ........... 2.7 3.0 3.5 4.3 6.7 7.9 7.4 7.4

65 to 74 .............. 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.4 5.4 6.0 5.2 5.3

75 and older ....... .4 .6 .7 .9 1.3 1.9 2.2 2.1

Men, 16 years

and older ..................... 54.8 53.5 53.6 53.1 52.4 52.7 52.9 53.0

 16 to 24 ..................... 9.5 8.3 7.8 7.4 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.7

 16 to 19 .................. 3.3 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8

 20 to 24 .................. 6.3 5.3 5.4 5.2 4.5 4.8 4.9 4.8

25 to 54 ..................... 38.5 38.0 37.1 35.9 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.3

 25 to 34 .................. 15.8 12.5 11.9 12.2 12.5 11.9 12.4 12.3

Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and ethnicity, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

 1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

See footnotes at end of table.

Age, sex, race, and ethnicity

Percent change—continued

1
34 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

 35 to 44 .................. 13.9 14.1 13.1 11.6 11.3 11.9 11.3 11.7

 45 to 54 .................. 8.8 11.4 12.1 12.1 10.2 10.4 10.7 10.2

 55 and older .............. 6.8 7.2 8.6 9.9 12.1 11.9 11.8 12.0

 55 to 64 .................. 5.3 5.5 6.7 7.6 8.5 7.6 7.7 7.9

65 and older ........... 1.6 1.7 1.9 2.3 3.6 4.3 4.1 4.1

65 to 74 .............. 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.9 3.3 2.9 3.0

75 and older ....... .2 .3 .4 .5 .7 1.0 1.2 1.2

Women, 16 years

and older ..................... 45.2 46.5 46.4 46.9 47.6 47.3 47.1 47.0

 16 to 24 ..................... 8.4 7.5 7.1 7.1 6.3 6.6 6.7 6.6

 16 to 19 .................. 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9

 20 to 24 .................. 5.4 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.4 4.7 4.8 4.7

 25 to 54 ..................... 31.7 33.1 31.7 30.8 29.6 29.6 29.8 29.6

 25 to 34 .................. 12.8 10.5 9.7 9.7 10.1 9.6 10.0 10.0

 35 to 44 .................. 11.7 12.3 11.1 9.9 9.6 10.1 9.6 10.0

 45 to 54 .................. 7.3 10.4 10.9 11.2 9.9 9.9 10.2 9.7

 55 and older .............. 5.1 5.9 7.5 9.0 11.7 11.0 10.7 10.8

55 to 64 .................. 3.9 4.6 6.0 7.1 8.6 7.4 7.4 7.5

65 and older ........... 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 3.1 3.6 3.3 3.3

65 to 74 .............. 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.3

75 and older ....... .2 .2 .3 .4 .6 .8 1.0 1.0

Race:

 White ......................... 85.4 83.1 81.9 81.1 78.9 76.8 74.9 73.1

 Men ........................ 47.4 45.2 44.7 43.8 42.2 41.3 40.4 39.5

 Women ................... 38.0 37.9 37.2 37.3 36.7 35.5 34.5 33.6

 Black ......................... 10.9 11.5 11.4 11.7 12.5 13.0 13.4 13.8

 Men ........................ 5.4 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.7 6.0 6.3 6.5

 Women ................... 5.5 6.1 6.0 6.2 6.8 7.0 7.1 7.3

 Asian ......................... 3.7 4.4 4.4 4.8 5.7 6.6 7.5 8.3

 Men ........................ 2.0 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.9 3.4 3.9 4.3

 Women ................... 1.7 2.0 2.0 2.3 2.7 3.2 3.6 4.0

All other groups ......... — — 2.3 2.4 2.9 3.5 4.2 4.9

 Men ........................ — — 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.7

 Women ................... — — 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.2

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ........... 8.5 11.7 13.3 14.3 17.3 20.1 22.3 24.3

 Men ........................ 5.2 7.0 8.0 8.3 9.7 11.2 12.4 13.5

 Women ................... 3.3 4.7 5.2 6.1 7.6 8.9 9.9 10.8

 Other than Hispanic

origin ...................... 91.5 88.3 86.7 85.7 82.7 79.9 77.7 75.7

 Men ........................ 49.6 46.5 45.6 44.9 42.8 41.5 40.5 39.5

 Women ................... 41.8 41.8 41.2 40.8 39.9 38.4 37.3 36.2

 White non-Hispanic ... 77.7 72.0 69.6 67.9 63.2 58.7 54.9 51.4

 Men ........................ 42.7 38.6 37.2 36.2 33.4 31.1 29.2 27.4

 Women ................... 35.0 33.4 32.4 31.7 29.9 27.6 25.7 24.0

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

 Annual growth rate (percent)

 Total, 16 years and older 1.3 .9 .9 .6 .4 .6 .6

Age, years:

 16 to 24 ........................................... .0 –.2 .2 –.8 1.0 .7 .5

 16 to 19 ........................................ .6 –2.8 –.8 –1.3 .8 .4 .5

 20 to 24 ........................................ –.3 1.2 .7 –.6 1.1 .7 .5

 25 to 54 ........................................... 1.4 .3 .3 .2 .4 .7 .6

 25 to 34 ........................................ –.9 –.3 1.1 .9 –.1 1.0 .6

 35 to 44 ........................................ 1.6 –.8 –1.4 .3 .9 .1 1.0

Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to

 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

See footnotes at end of table.

 Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

Percent distribution—

continued

1
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 35

 45 to 54 ........................................ 4.4 2.1 1.1 –.8 .5 .9 .1

 55 and older .................................... 2.2 5.4 4.1 2.9 .0 .4 .8

 55 to 64 ........................................ 2.2 5.7 3.9 2.1 –.9 .6 .9

 65 and older ................................. 2.3 4.1 4.8 5.3 2.0 .0 .6

 65 to 74 .................................... 1.7 3.7 4.5 5.5 1.5 –.9 .8

 75 and older ............................. 4.9 5.7 5.7 4.7 3.8 2.3 .1

Men, 16 years and older .................... 1.0 1.0 .8 .5 .4 .6 .6

 16 to 24 ........................................... –.1 –.2 –.2 –1.0 1.0 .7 .5

 16 to 19 ........................................ .4 –3.4 –.9 –1.6 .8 .5 .5

 20 to 24 ........................................ –.4 1.4 .0 –.7 1.1 .7 .5

 25 to 54 ........................................... 1.1 .4 .3 .1 .4 .7 .6

 25 to 34 ........................................ –1.1 .0 1.3 .9 –.1 1.0 .6

 35 to 44 ........................................ 1.4 –.6 –1.3 .3 .8 .1 1.0

 45 to 54 ........................................ 3.9 2.1 .9 –1.0 .6 .9 .1

 55 and older .................................... 1.8 4.6 3.8 2.6 .2 .5 .8

 55 to 64 ........................................ 1.6 5.2 3.4 1.8 –.8 .7 .9

 65 and older ................................. 2.4 2.8 5.0 5.1 2.2 .1 .6

 65 to 74 .................................... 1.9 3.1 4.2 5.2 1.7 –.7 .9

 75 and older ............................. 4.5 5.4 4.9 4.6 4.0 2.2 .0

Women, 16 years and older ............... 1.6 .9 1.1 .8 .3 .6 .6

 16 to 24 ........................................... .2 –.2 .8 –.6 1.0 .6 .5

 16 to 19 ........................................ .8 –2.2 –.6 –1.0 .8 .4 .5

 20 to 24 ........................................ –.2 1.0 1.4 -.4 1.0 .7 .5

 25 to 54 ........................................... 1.7 .1 .3 .2 .4 .7 .5

 25 to 34 ........................................ –.7 –.6 .9 1.0 –.1 1.0 .6

 35 to 44 ........................................ 1.8 –1.1 –1.4 .4 .9 .1 1.0

 45 to 54 ........................................ 4.9 2.0 1.4 –.6 .4 .9 .1

 55 and older .................................... 2.7 6.1 4.7 3.2 –.2 .3 .7

 55 to 64 ........................................ 2.9 6.4 4.5 2.5 –1.0 .5 .8

 65 and older ................................. 2.1 4.9 5.3 5.6 1.8 –.2 .5

 65 to 74 .................................... 1.4 4.6 5.0 5.8 1.4 –1.1 .6

 75 and older ............................. 5.6 6.2 6.6 4.9 3.6 2.5 .3

Race:

 White ............................................... 1.0 .6 .7 .3 .1 .3 .4

 Men .............................................. .8 .7 .6 .2 .2 .4 .4

 Women ......................................... 1.2 .6 1.0 .5 .0 .3 .3

 Black ............................................... 1.8 .7 1.5 1.2 .8 .9 .8

 Men .............................................. 1.3 .8 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.0 .9

 Women ......................................... 2.3 .7 1.6 1.5 .7 .8 .8

 Asian ............................................... 3.1 .7 2.8 2.4 2.0 1.8 1.6

 Men .............................................. 2.7 .8 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 1.6

 Women ......................................... 3.4 .6 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.6

All other groups ............................... ... 1.4 2.5 2.3 2.4 2.1 2.2

 Men .............................................. ... 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.4

 Women ......................................... ... .5 2.5 2.2 2.3 2.1 2.1

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin ................................. 4.5 3.5 2.5 2.5 1.9 1.6 1.5

 Men .............................................. 4.2 3.8 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.4

 Women ......................................... 5.0 3.0 3.9 3.0 1.9 1.7 1.5

 Other than Hispanic origin .............. .9 .6 .7 .3 .0 .3 .3

 Men .............................................. .6 .5 .6 .1 .1 .3 .4

 Women ......................................... 1.2 .6 .8 .4 .0 .3 .3

 White non-Hispanic ......................... .5 .2 .5 –.1 –.4 –.1 –.1

 Men ............................................ . 2 .2 .4 –.2 –.3 –.1 .0

 Women ....................................... . 8 .3 .5 .0 –.4 –.1 –.1

Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to

 2050

[Numbers in thousands]

1990–2000 2000–05 2005–10 2010–20 2020–30 2030–40 2040–50

Annual growth rate (percent)—

continued

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as of multiple racial

origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b)

Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islanders.

 NOTE: Dash indicates no data collected for category.

Age, sex, race, and

ethnicity

1
36 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

been more than the number of women. The men’s labor force was

69.0 million in 1990, 76.3 million in 2000, and 80 million in 2005 and

is projected to be 87.2 million in 2020 and 103.2 million in 2050.

2. Women. Historically, the growth rate of women in the labor

force has been higher than that of men. Concomitant with the

significant increases in the labor force participation rate of

women in the 1970–80 period, the women’s labor force has

increased. The labor force of women stood at 56.8 million in

1990 and reached 66.3 million in 2000. The labor force of

women is projected to grow to 79.1 million in 2020 and 91.6

million in 2050.

Projected labor force by age. As with projections by sex,

projections of the labor force by age are based on the various age

groups’ past participation rates and shares of the population and

therefore differ among those age groups.

1. Youths 16 to 24 years. The youth labor force is conveniently broken down into two groups: 16- to 19-year-olds and 20-

to 24-year-olds. Historical data show that the labor forces of

these two groups have been growing at different rates. As

discussed earlier, the difference can be partially explained by the

share of students and nonstudents in each group. The labor

force of 16- to 19-year-olds was 7.8 million in 1990, 8.3 million in

2000, and 7.2 million in 2005; it is projected to decrease until 2020

and then gradually increase, reaching 7.2 million again in 2050.

The increase in school attendance of youths, especially

16- to 19-year-olds, has been the main reason the youth labor

force as a whole has been decreasing. The labor force of 20- to

24-year-olds, which stood at 14.7 million in 1990, contributed

to the decrease by falling to 14.3 million in 2000, but then rose

to 15.1 million in 2005. The labor force of 20- to 24-year-olds is

projected to grow by an average of 0.5 percent annually from

2005 to 2050, enabling it to reach 18.6 million in 2050.

2. Prime-aged workers 25 to 54 years. Of all the age groups,

the prime-aged workers have the strongest ties to the labor

market. Their labor force numbered 88.3 million in 1990, 101.4

million in 2000, and 102.8 million in 2005. The Bureau projects

that, by 2050, the prime-aged workforce will reach 124.4 million.

The group made up 70.2 percent of the total labor force in 1990

and increased to a 71.1-percent share in 2000, but then

decreased to 68.8 percent in 2005. By the year 2000, all the

baby boomers were in the group of prime-aged workers. With

the passage of each year after 2000, the baby boomers started

entering the next group: those 55 years and older. The share

of 25- to 54-year-olds is expected to be about 64 percent of the

total labor force in 2050.

3. Workers 55 years and older. The number of persons 55

years and older who are working is on an upward trend, with

an annual growth rate several times the rate of the overall

labor force. There were 15 million workers 55 years and older

in 1990, accounting for nearly 12 percent of the labor force.

Ten years later, in 2000, the group reached 18.7 million, or 13.1

percent of the labor force. In 2005, this age group reached 24.3

million, or 16.2 percent of the labor force. The sizable increase

in the labor force 55 years and older is again attributable to

the baby boomers, who swell the size of the labor force

whichever age category they are in. In 2020, the 55-yearsand-older age group will reach 39.6 million and have a 23.8-

percent share of the labor force. By 2050, the group will

number more than 44.6 million workers and constitute 23.0

percent of the labor force. Within this age group, the 55- to 64-

year-olds are projected to be 28.4 million in 2020 and the 65- to

74-year-olds are expected to be nearly 9 million then.

Projected labor force by race and ethnicity. As the main

engine of U.S. population growth, immigration will further

diversify the population and the labor force in the coming

years. In addition, immigrants are more likely than their nativeborn counterparts to be labor force participants. That phenomenon, in turn, will be another generator of diversity in the

labor force.

The Hispanic labor force, 10.7 million in 1990, 16.7 million

in 2000, and nearly 20 million in 2005, is projected to continue

its strong presence in the U.S. labor force and reach 47.3

million in 2050, 24.3 percent of the total labor force. The annual

growth rate of the Hispanic labor force is expected to average

2.0 percent during the 2005–50 projection period.

The Asian labor force also is expected to grow at an annual

rate of 2.0 percent during the same timeframe. The Asian labor

force is projected to reach 9.5 million in 2020 and 16.1 million,

or 8.3 percent of the total workforce, in 2050.

The black labor force is projected to increase at an annual

growth rate of 1.0 percent over the 2005–50 projection period

and reach 20.7 million in 2020 and 26.8 million in 2050, nearly

14 percent of the total labor force.

The white non-Hispanic share of the total labor force is

projected to decrease from nearly 70 percent in 2005 to 51.4

percent in 2050, a result of the faster growth rate of other

racial and ethnic groups in the U.S. workforce. In addition, the

retirement of the baby boomers, a group that has a large share

of white non-Hispanics—especially white non-Hispanic men—

will further lower the white non-Hispanic share of the total labor

force. The lower fertility rate of the white non-Hispanic group,

compared with those of the other racial and ethnic categories,

will add lesser numbers to the white non-Hispanic population

and hence to their labor force.

Implications of an aging labor force

Median age. The age of the labor force can be measured in
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 37

various ways. Two such measures are the median age and the

labor force shares of younger, prime-age, and older workers.

The median age is defined as that age than which half the

population is older and half is younger. From the beginning of

the 20th century, demographic changes have had major

impacts on the median age of the U.S. population. With

increases in life expectancies and decreases in fertility, the

median age of the U.S. population, as well as that of the labor

force, has increased significantly. According to the Census

Bureau, the median age of the population increased by 21⁄2

years between 1990 and 2000, reaching 35.3 years in the latter

year. Oddly (though not contradictorily), during the same

period the 65-years-and-older population increased at a slower

rate than the overall population, as a result of the “birth

dearth” of the late 1920s and early 1930s.7

At 40.5 years in 1962, the median age of the labor force was

the highest ever attained before the baby boomers entered

the labor force. The median age dropped steadily until 1980,

when it began rising as the baby boomers began exiting the

younger age groups. The overall median age of the labor force

is projected to continue to increase in the future and reach 42

years in 2020. With the early retirement of the baby-boom

generation at 62 years and normal retirement at 65, the median

age of the labor force is projected to decrease slowly after

2020, reaching 41.6 years by 2050. (See table 5.)

Although the median age of both the population and the

labor force is increasing, the median age of the population is

increasing more than that of the labor force. Because the labor

force participation rates of older persons are much lower than

the rates of younger workers, the median age of the labor

force is less than the median age of the population. Still, the

growth of the older population, combined with the increase in

its participation rates, is projected to increase the overall

median age of the labor force to 42 years in 2020. Men’s median

age is projected to be 41.4 years that year, while women’s

median age is expected to reach 42.7 years.

The median age of the white non-Hispanic labor force

continues to be higher than that of other racial and ethnic

categories. This trend is expected to continue, and the median

age of the white non-Hispanic labor force is projected to be

43.8 years in 2020. Compared with white non-Hispanic groups,

the black and Hispanic groups have a lower median age, reflecting their younger age profile and higher fertility. Still, the

median age of minorities in the labor force is expected to increase. The median age of Hispanics is projected to be 38.6

years in 2020. The median age of the black labor force was

38.8 years in 2005 and is projected to be 39.5 years in 2020.

Similarly, the median age of Asians, which was 39.5 years in

2005, is anticipated to reach 43.8 years in 2020.

Economic dependency ratio. The economic dependency

ratio is the number of persons in the total population (including the Armed Forces overseas and children) who are not in

the labor force, per 100 of those who are in the labor force.

The modern human life cycle begins with nearly 20 years of

economic dependency in childhood and ends with another 20

or so years of economic dependency in old age, with 40-plus

years in between in which workers produce more than they

consume and reallocate the surplus to members of other age

groups for consumption.8

Table 6 shows the economic dependency ratio by age for

1990 and 2000 and projected to 2050. For every 100 persons in

the labor force in 2000, about 94 persons were not in the labor

force. Of the latter group, approximately 44 were children, 28

Table 5. Median age of the labor force, 1990 to 2005 and projected 2010 to 2050

 Sex, race, and ethnicity 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Total ............................. 36.4 39.3 40.8 41.5 42.0 41.9 41.8 41.6

 Men ........................................... 36.5 39.2 40.6 41.1 41.4 41.6 41.4 41.3

 Women ...................................... 36.2 39.4 41.0 41.9 42.7 42.4 42.2 42.0

Race:

 White ........................................ 36.6 39.7 41.2 42.0 42.6 42.3 42.1 41.9

 Black ........................................ 34.8 37.4 38.8 38.8 39.5 39.8 40.0 40.2

 Asian ........................................ 35.8 37.9 39.5 41.4 43.8 44.0 43.6 43.8

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin .......................... 32.3 34.0 35.2 36.8 38.6 38.7 38.9 39.3

 White non-Hispanic .................. 37.0 40.6 42.3 43.2 43.8 43.5 43.4 43.0

Table 6. Economic dependency ratio, 1990 to 2000 and projected 2010 to 2050

[Per hundred in the labor force]

 Age group 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

 Total population ....... 98.3 93.9 95.6 100.1 108.5 112.0 114.0

Under 16 years ................... 45.8 44.1 41.8 42.7 43.8 44.2 44.8

16 to 64 years .................... 30.5 28.3 32.5 31.5 31.6 31.9 32.4

65 years and older .............. 22.1 21.6 21.3 25.9 33.1 35.9 36.8

Sex:
38 Monthly Labor Review November 2006

Long-Term Labor Force

were 16 to 64 years old, and 22 were older than 64 years. (See

chart 4.)

The economic dependency ratio attributed to children has

decreased in the last couple of decades and will decrease

even further until 2010. The ratio for 16- to 64-year-olds

decreased from 1990 to 2000 and is projected to be 32 persons

in 2050.

The dependency ratio of those 65 years and older has

been increasing steadily in the past and is expected to rise yet

further in the future. The economic dependency ratio of this

group, which was about 22 (persons not working) in 2000, is

projected to increase to approximately 26 in 2020 and then

increase rapidly to about 37 in 2050.

Qualifications to the projections

As noted earlier, labor force growth in the future is the result

of either

1. The projected growth in the labor force participation

rates of the different age, sex, racial, and ethnic categories or

2. The projected growth in the populations of the different

age, sex, racial, and ethnic categories.

The BLS long-term labor force projections, which are

subject to certain assumptions, point to a lessening of the

growth of the labor force in the future. Several factors may

interfere with the projected further slowdown of labor force

growth:

An increase in the participation rate of the young. A more

efficient use of the youth labor force is one way that both the

overall labor force participation rate and the growth of the

labor force might increase. However, the increase in school

enrollment of youths during the past several decades has

decreased the labor force participation rates of the young age

cohorts dramatically. The increase in school attendance and

the growth in the number of students enrolled in high school,

college, and summer school together represent a structural

change with a permanent impact on the labor market. On the

basis of the current long-term projections, it appears that the

labor force participation rate of the young age groups will not

Chart 4. Economic dependency ratio, 1950 to 2000 and projected 2010 to 2050

NOTE: The economic dependency ration is the number of persons not in the labor force per hundred person in the labor force.

Ratio Ratio

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Under 16 years

16 to 64 years

65 years and older
Monthly Labor Review November 2006 39

be increasing any time soon enough to be effective in increasing either the overall labor force participation rate or the

growth of the labor force.

An increase in the participation rate of women. A second

possibility for increasing the overall labor force participation

rate and the growth of the labor force is through an increase

in the labor force participation rate of women. Women’s

participation rates have increased significantly since the

1970s, and the gender gap has been greatly reduced. However,

on the basis of previous BLS projections, as well as the current

set of long-term labor force projections, it appears that the

labor force participation rate of women already may have

reached its peak. The recent decline in women’s participation

is another factor contributing to the downward trend in the

overall participation rate since 2000. It is unlikely that the

labor force participation rate of women will achieve the significant increases registered during the 1970–90 timeframe;

more likely, the rate will remain flat or edge down.

An increase in the participation rate of the older workforce.

Yet another manner in which the labor force can be more

efficiently used is through an increase in the participation

rate of the older workforce. Such a state of affairs can come

about through changes in laws, regulations, and employment

policies. The baby boomers currently (in 2006) are between

the ages of 42 years and 60 years. An increase in the labor

force participation rate of the older workforce, multiplied by

the large number of workers in this age group, has the potential

to increase the size of the labor force significantly. The 55-

years-and-older age group accounted for 16.2 percent of the

labor force in 2005 and is projected to constitute 19.0 percent

of the labor force in 2010 and nearly 24 percent in 2020. The

group’s share is expected to decrease slightly to 22.9 percent

in 2050.

The labor force participation rate of older workers has been

increasing since the end of the 1980s. The decision to continue work into the later years of life has been the result of

several intertwined factors, such as the continually increasing

life expectancy of the population, wherein a growing number

of people are healthier for a longer portion of their life span.

Because the average number of years spent in retirement has

been rising steadily over the past several decades, and even

before that, since the 1980s older workers have increasingly

chosen to remain in the labor force in pursuit of additional

earnings. In addition, the elimination of mandatory retirement

and the enactment of age discrimination laws have contributed

to the increase in participation rates of older persons.

Other factors, such as significant increases in healthcare

costs and a decrease in the availability of health benefits, also

have increased the participation of the older age groups in

the workforce. Finally, recent changes in the Social Security

laws, along with an increase in the normal retirement age for

certain birth cohorts and a decrease in benefits with early

retirement, have encouraged the 55-years-and-older group to

increase its labor force participation.

Immigration. As far as population projections are concerned, different immigration scenarios result in different

growth rates for the population and the labor force. Because

immigration accounts for more than 40 percent of the growth

of the U.S population, assumptions about immigration have a

direct effect on the Census Bureau’s population projections

and hence on the BLS labor force projections.

According to the Census Bureau's Web site, the United States

posts one birth every 8 seconds, one death every 11 seconds,

one (net) international migrant every 31 seconds, and a net gain

of one person every 14 seconds. Changes in future immigration

policies could affect the growth rate of the population, which is

the major factor in labor force projections. 

Notes

1

 Projections of the labor force participation rate for each group

are developed by first estimating a trend rate of change based on past

participation behavior. The latter rate is then modified when the timeseries projections for the specific group appear to be inconsistent with

the results of cross-sectional and cohort analysis. This second step

ensures consistency in the projections across the various demographic

groups. For further information, see “Employment Projections,”

Chapter 13 of Handbook of Methods (Bureau of Labor Statistics,

1999); on the Internet at stats.bls.gov/opub/hom/homch13_a.htm.

2

 Frederick W. Hollman, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E. Kallan,

Population Projections of the United States, 1999 to 2100: Methodology and Assumptions, Working Paper No. 38 (Bureau of the Census,

1999).

3

 See Mitra Toossi, “A century of change: the U.S. labor force, 1950–

2050,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 15–28.

4

 Information about the U.S. Census Bureau is on the Internet at

www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj.

5

 See Mitra Toossi, “Labor force projections to 2014: retiring

boomers,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2005, pp. 25–44.

6

 Steven Hipple, “Labor force during recent labor market downturns,” Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 03–03 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, September 2003).

7

 Toossi, “A century of change.”

8

 Ronald D. Lee, Intergenerational Transfers (Berkeley, CA, Center

for Research and Education in Aging), on the Internet at crea.berkeley.edu/

lee-profile.shtml.