shock waves that influenced the market.1

 Soon 

afterwards, grains and oilseed prices began 

to increase as fears were raised about the adequacy of global food supplies. In response to 

past periods of surging global prices and trade 

instability—most notably in 2008—the United 

States has been capable of increasing exports to 

contribute to world food stocks. How did the U.S. 

export position and balance of trade respond to 

this price shock in comparison to other events 

in recent memory? The BLS agricultural export 

price indexes shed some light on this topic.

The BLS export price index for agricultural foods, 

feeds, and beverages rose 16 percent between 

July 2010 and December 2010. (See chart 1.) 

Similarly, the U.S. trade balance in grains also 

Agriculture is a major component of U.S. exports and is one of the few economic sectors in 

which the Nation typically runs a trade surplus. 

Recently, the importance of agricultural exports 

was highlighted by the impact of rising grain 

prices. In 2010, flooding and drought conditions 

affected crop yields worldwide and resulted 

in grain stockpiles dropping to critical lows. In 

response to wildfires and drought conditions 

affecting crops, Russia announced a temporary ban on grain exports in August, setting off 

Current Price Topics

U.S. Export Prices Up as 

World Grain Stockpiles 

Decline

1

Import and Export Prices: Fourth Quarter 2010

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics February 2011 Volume 1, Number 13
2

rose, contributing to a significant advance 

in the overall U.S. agricultural trade balance. 

In November 2010, the seasonally adjusted 

monthly surplus for agricultural foods approached nearly $3.8 billion dollars, comparable to the $4.1 billion surplus reached at the 

June 2008 peak of the 2007–08 food crisis. 

The recent rise in both grain prices and export 

volumes provided significant contributions 

to the improvement in the agricultural trade 

balance. 

Most of the increase in the agricultural food 

export prices during the second half of 2010 

can be attributed to a spike in wheat, corn, 

and soybean prices. The Russian export ban, 

in conjunction with lower harvests in a number of other major grain-producing countries, 

directly affected global wheat prices, driving 

them to 2-year highs. As evidenced by the BLS 

wheat export price index, U.S. export prices 

increased 54.8 percent between July 2010 and 

December 2010, compared with 4.5 percent 

for all exports. (See chart 2.) The recent surge 

in wheat prices resembles price trends during 

the last global food crisis in 2007–08, when 

the wheat export price index soared 56.4 

percent between June 2007 and July 2008. At 

that time, the United States increased exports, 

unlike many other grain-producing nations, 

which reacted to the crisis by limiting exports 

to ensure that sufficient supply remained 

available to domestic markets. During the 

first half of the 2007–08 marketing year (June 

2007–November 2007), U.S. wheat exports 

soared to more than 727 million bushels, a 

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T O P I C S
3

74-percent increase over the same period the 

previous year, with total wheat exports topping 1.2 billion bushels for the 2007–08 marketing year (June 2007–May 2008) and reaching slightly more than 993 million bushels 

for the 2008–09 marketing year.2 In a similar 

turn of events, U.S. wheat exports have risen 

to more than 568 million bushels during the 

first half of the 2010–11 marketing year (June 

2010–November 2010), roughly a 30-percent 

increase over the same period in 2009. This 

increase has been a boon to the U.S. wheat 

industry, which has seen generally declining 

exports since the 1980s.

World corn prices also jumped to record high 

levels in 2010, primarily in response to unfavorable weather conditions in the United 

States, which, as the world’s largest supplier of 

corn, has significant influence on global corn 

prices. Heavy rain and extreme heat caused 

the U.S. Department of Agriculture to cut the 

estimate of the 2010 corn harvest. Forecasts 

for South American production, particularly 

Argentina, the world’s second-largest corn 

exporter, have also been reduced as La Niña 

threatened drought conditions in the region.3

As a result, the BLS price index for exported 

corn rose nearly 50 percent between June 

2010 and December 2010. Despite the price 

increases, corn export levels also rose in 2010, 

totaling more than 1.8 billion bushels through 

November of 2010, compared with 1.7 billion bushels for the same 11-month period in 

2009.4 Much of this increase was due to surging demand from emerging markets, most 

notably China, which also experienced a bad 

growing year and consequently imported 1.5 

million metric tons of corn from the United 

States during the first 11 months of 2010, 

compared with less than 90,000 for the comparable period in 2009.5

Finally, soybean prices have also surged recently as the U.S. Department of Agriculture 

lowered the forecast for U.S. stocks on account 

of poor weather conditions. Export prices 

shot up 34.4 percent between June 2010 and 

December of 2010, hitting their highest levels 

since July 2008. As with corn, forecasts for 

South American soybean production have 

also been cut.6 The United States is the leading supplier of soybeans, so reductions in 

South American production will further boost 

demand for U.S. exports, again particularly 

from China, which has become the world’s 

largest importer of soybeans. 

Despite the aftermath of the Russian wheat 

export ban of 2010 and unfavorable growing 

conditions in key producing nations worldwide, major fears about global grain shortages 

similar to the 2007–08 food shock have not 

materialized. However, there are still significant concerns. First, weather problems across 

the globe are causing unease for upcoming 

wheat and corn crops, as seen recently in 

China where that country is facing their worst 

drought in 60 years; second, as opposed to 

2010, global stock levels of wheat, corn, and 

soybean are now at critical lows; and third and 

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T O P I C S
perhaps most important for the long run, 

in conjunction with indications of a global 

economic recovery, the demand for wheat, 

corn, and soybeans continues to rise.7 According to the U.N. Food and Agricultural Organization, in contrast to past cycles of price 

instability, the trend may be different this 

time around. Instead of grain prices peaking 

within the span of several months and then 

declining significantly, prices may remain 

higher for a longer time.8 Although short-run 

price and trade shifts tend to benefit U.S. exporters temporarily, a new pricing paradigm 

may increase the U.S. export position in the 

longer term. 

 

Import prices

Import prices increased 4.8 percent in 2010, 

following an increase of 8.6 percent for the 

previous year and a 10.1-percent decrease 

in 2008. (See table.) The 2010 increase 

was driven by an 11.9-percent increase in 

prices for fuels and lubricants, as well as a 

12.0-percent increase in prices for industrial 

supplies and materials, excluding fuels. 

Fuel import prices

Prices for imports of fuel climbed 11.9 percent in 2010, the second consecutive year the 

index has increased. In 2009, import fuel prices 

increased 62.2 percent, the second-highest 

calendar-year increase since the index was first 

published in 1984. The increase in 2010 was 

the result of steady increases in each of the 

last 3 months of the quarter. Until the fourth 

quarter of the year, fuel prices had actually decreased 1.0 percent, but over the final quarter, 

the index rose 13.1 percent, to finish the year 

up almost 12 percent. In 2009, prices rebounded after a 47.0-percent decline in 2008. 

Petroleum prices led the increase in 2010, 

rising 13.7 percent, with the majority of 

the increase happening in the final quarter of the year. During that period, prices 

increased 13.5 percent after ticking up 0.2 

percent during the first three quarters of the 

year. Strong economic growth in Asia, espe4

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T R E N D S

Summary of December-to-December percent changes, in import and export prices for 

selected commodities 2001–10

Commodity 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

All-commodity imports –9.1 4.2 2.4 6.7 8.0 2.5 10.6 –10.1 8.6 4.8

 Excluding fuels NA 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.3 3.0

 Fuels –41.9 53.7 13.2 31.5 43.5 0.9 42.1 –47.0 62.2 11.9

All-commodity exports –2.5 1.0 2.2 4.0 2.8 4.5 6.0 –2.9 3.4 6.5

 Excluding agricultural –2.5 0.4 1.3 5.0 2.6 3.7 4.5 –2.2 2.9 5.1

 Agricultural –1.8 8.0 13.4 –5.9 4.9 13.5 23.3 –10.9 9.2 20.2
cially China, along with declining industry 

stocks in OECD countries, drove prices up 

during the year. Global oil supply also declined by 0.3 million barrels per day in December, because of outages that included an 

Alaskan pipeline leak and a fire at a Canadian 

oil sands facility.9 The increase in 2010 followed a 78.6-percent increase in 2009. Natural gas prices partially offset the increase in 

petroleum prices during 2010, declining 11.3 

percent. Production of natural gas from North 

American shale formations rose during the 

year, increasing U.S. reserve levels.10

Nonfuel import prices

During 2010, prices for nonfuel imports also 

increased, but at a much lower rate than those 

for imported fuel. For the year, nonfuel import 

prices rose 3.0 percent, the 8th consecutive 

year the index has increased and the largest 

calendar-year advance since prices increased 

3.1 percent in 2007. As shown in chart 3, higher 

prices for industrial supplies and materials, 

excluding fuels, were the most significant 

contributor to the overall increase in nonfuel 

import prices. Prices for foods, feeds, and 

beverages, up 13.1 percent, along with automotive vehicles, and capital goods, which rose 

1.1 percent and 0.2 percent, respectively, also 

contributed to the overall increase, though to 

a much smaller extent. Prices for consumer 

goods declined 0.3 percent in 2010.

Prices for industrial supplies and materials, 

excluding fuels, increased 12.0 percent in 2010, 

the largest calendar-year rise since a 13.4-percent increase in 2004. Higher prices for unfin5

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T R E N D S
ished metals and chemicals led the advance in 

2010, rising 19.7 percent and 12.0 percent, respectively. Prices for fertilizers, gold, and other 

precious metals all contributed to the increase. 

Rising demand for fertilizer drove prices up as 

farmers sought to boost yields in the face of 

higher agricultural commodity prices.11

Prices of foods, feeds, and beverages jumped 

13.1 percent in 2010, after a comparatively 

modest 1.0 percent rise in 2009. The 2010 

increase was the largest calendar-year increase 

since a 14.7-percent advance in 1994. The price 

index for green coffee, cocoa beans, and sugar 

led the 2010 advance, rising 28.6 percent over 

the past year. The supply of coffee beans was 

hampered by rainy weather in Brazil, resulting 

in fungal infections that damaged trees. Poor 

weather affected coffee beans in Columbia, 

Vietnam, and India.12 At the same time, global 

consumption of coffee has continued to grow, 

putting further stress on reduced supplies. Political unrest in Côte d’Ivoire, the world’s largest 

producer of cocoa, factored heavily into higher 

world cocoa prices.13

Prices for automotive vehicles, parts, and 

engines ticked up 1.1 percent in 2010. The 

increase was the largest since a 2.4-percent 

increase in 2007 and marked the ninth consecutive year that prices have increased, going 

back to a 0.2-percent decrease in 2001. A 

combination of higher prices for metals and 

a weakening of the dollar contributed to the 

overall increase. The price index for capital 

goods ticked up 0.2 percent, while, in contrast, 

the price index for consumer goods declined 

0.3 percent for the second consecutive year.

Import prices from China 

On June 19, the Central Bank of China announced that it would allow the yuan to float 

relative to the U.S. dollar. As highlighted in 

the Second-Quarter Import and Export Inflation 

Spotlight, this announcement led to speculation that import prices from China might start 

to rise in response a weak U.S. dollar.14 Initially, 

there was little impact, as import prices from 

China were virtually unchanged during the 

third quarter, ticking up 0.1 percent. However, 

prices of imports from China did begin to rise 

more significantly during the fourth quarter, 

advancing 0.9 percent, which drove the index 

up 0.8 percent overall in 2010. In contrast, 

import prices had fallen 1.8 percent the previous year.

Export prices

U.S. export prices increased 6.5 percent in 2010, 

the largest calendar-year increase since the 

index was first published in 1983. The increase 

in 2010 followed a 3.4 percent increase in 

2009 and a 2.9-percent decrease in 2008. The 

price indexes for agricultural commodities and 

nonagricultural commodities both contributed 

to the overall increase in export prices for 2010, 

although the increases in agricultural prices 

were more pronounced. 

Agricultural export prices

Prices for agricultural exports climbed 20.2 

percent in 2010, following an increase of 9.2 

percent in 2009 and a 10.9-percent decrease 

6

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T R E N D S
 C U R R E N T P R I C E T R E N D S

in 2008. The 2010 calendar-year increase was 

the second-largest calendar-year advance since 

the index was first published in 1985, behind 

a 23.3-percent increase in 2007. Over the last 

4 years, the index has increased by more than 

44 percent. Corn, soybean, and wheat prices, 

discussed in detail in the section on current 

prices, all contributed to the rise in agricultural 

export prices. In addition to the higher grain 

prices, prices for cotton increased 107.0 percent 

in 2010. While this rise was part of a broad commodities rally throughout the year, fears of a 

shortage of supply and strong global demand 

underpinned the surge in price. Devastating 

floods in Pakistan, the world’s fourth-largest 

cotton supplier, along with export restrictions in 

India, and strong demand in China that outstripped domestic production, all contributed 

to the historic rise in cotton prices.15

7

Nonagricultural export prices

Prices for nonagricultural exports increased 5.1 

percent in 2010. The increase was the largest calendar-year advance since a 5.9-percent 

rise in 1987. As can be seen in chart 4, rising 

prices for nonagricultural industrial supplies 

and materials drove the increase. Higher prices 

for capital goods, automotive vehicles, and 

consumer goods, excluding automotives, also 

contributed to the increase, although their 

impact was much less significant.

In 2010, prices for nonagricultural industrial 

supplies and materials increased 13.5 percent. 

The advance followed a 6.9-percent increase 

in 2009 and a 9.3-percent decline the previous 

year. The rise in 2010 was the largest calendaryear increase since a 16.6-percent advance in 
8

 C U R R E N T P R I C E T R E N D S

Notes

1 See “Russian grain harvest so far this season declines 31% after drought damage,” Bloomberg, Aug. 25, 2010.

2

 Wheat data from yearbook tables, U.S. total wheat exports from grain flour and products (U.S. Department of Agriculture, January 

2011). For more information about the U.S. Department of Agriculture wheat report, visit http://www.ers.usda.gov/Data/Wheat/

YBtable21.asp on the Internet. Note that the U.S. Department of Agriculture defines the marketing year for wheat to run from June 

through the following May. 

3

 See “Soybeans gain on speculation about drought damage to Argentina’s harvest,” Bloomberg, Dec. 30, 2010.

4

 Feed grains data from yearbook tables, U.S. corn and sorghum exports (U.S. Department of Agriculture, January 2011). For more information about the U.S. Department of Agriculture corn and sorghum report, visit http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/feedgrains/Table.

asp on the Internet.

5

 U.S. agricultural exports, year to date and current months (U.S. Department of Agriculture, December 2010). For more information 

about the U.S. Department of Agriculture soybeans report, visit http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/FATUS on the Internet.

6

 See “Buenos Aires cereals exchange reduces forecast for Argentinean crop,” Bloomberg, Jan. 30, 2011.

7

 See “U.N. food agency issues warning on China drought,” The New York Times, Feb. 8, 2011.

8

 See “Grain Prices Surge; Further Rises Likely in 2011,” The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 2, 2010.

9

 Oil Market Report (International Energy Agency, Jan. 18, 2010). For more information about the International Energy Agency, visit 

http://www.iea.org/about/index.asp on the Internet.

10 See “U.S. gas: futures rise, but end year at lowest year-end price since 2001,” The Wall Street Journal, Dec. 31, 2010.

11 See “Fertilizer prices on the rise,” AgWeb.com, Sept.14, 2010.

12 See “Coffee price jumps to 13-year high; cocoa, orange juice rise,” Bloomberg, Dec. 21, 2010: “Robusta prices go up on Vietnam 

dry weather,” Commodity Online, June 28, 2010; and “Columbian coffee crop may be cut by wet weather,” The Spec.com, Nov. 25, 

2010.

13 See “Cocoa prices rise after Ivory Coast election turmoil,” The Guardian, Dec. 22, 2010.

14 Focus on Prices and Spending: Second Quarter 2010 (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2010). For more information about 

the report, visit http://www.bls.gov/opub/focus/volume1_number5/ipp_1_5.pdf on the Internet.

15 See “Cotton prices surge; will you pay?” ABC News/Money, Nov. 12, 2010.

2004. A broad commodities rally was responsible for the increase, with prices for fuels, 

metals, and chemicals all being contributing 

factors. Export prices for both gold and copper 

increased by 21.9 percent and 25.9 percent, 

respectively, for the year, while chemical prices 

were up 10.4 percent. 

Consumer goods prices rose 3.4 percent in 2010. 

The increase was the largest calendar-year advance since a 3.8-percent increase in 1990. Rising 

prices for medicinal, dental, and pharmaceutical 

preparatory materials, as well as for textile apparel and footwear, were the major contributors 

to the increase. Capital goods prices advanced a 

comparatively modest 0.6 percent in 2010. Rising 

prices for generators, as well as for parts and engines for civilian aircraft, were the major factors 

for the increase.

For more information, contact Justin Byrne 

(202) 691-7085, or by email (byrne.justin@bls.

gov), or Edwin Bennion (202) 691-7142 or by 

email (bennion.edwin@bls.gov).