Monthly Labor Review October 2001 3

 Employment in Services

The services industries’ reputation of resisting recessions is well deserved in onesense, as most of the major groups within

the Services Division, as well as the division as

a whole, generally do not show a net decline in

employment from the official start of a recession

period to its completion. Employment in the division, however, is affected by recessions. Its

growth in jobs slows considerably, and with statistical significance. Furthermore, most of the

division’s 16 major industry groups decelerate

in job growth or lose jobs during recessions.

Five major groups in Services, however, are at

least slightly countercyclical, gaining jobs faster

during recessions than in normal times. One extremely large and important group, healthcare, is

countercyclical. Furthermore, healthcare shows

countercyclicality with statistical significance.

This article identifies and discusses the cyclical

and countercyclical industry groups of the Services Division and some of the different causes

of cyclical and countercyclical trends.

Methodology

For each employment series examined in this

analysis, quarterly averages were computed from

seasonally adjusted monthly observations so

that each series could be compared in trend with

GDP, which is available as a quarterly series.

Next, the quarter-to-quarter percent changes of

each series were calculated. Within each series,

the percent changes were divided into two

groups: those during officially declared recessions and those outside of official recessions.

The average quarterly percent change during

recessions and the average quarterly percent

change during other times were calculated. The

difference between the two averages determined

whether the series is classified in this article as

cyclical or countercyclical; when the average

percent change during economic expansions is

greater than the average change during recessions, the series is called cyclical, and when the

average percent change during recessions is

greater than that during economic expansions,

the series is considered countercyclical.

The period used in this article generally starts

at the beginning of the individual series and

continues through the third quarter of 2000. (See

table 1 for dates.) Later data were not used because the state of the economy (that is, in expansion or in recession) during the recent period has not been determined as of the writing of

this article. The employment trends in Services

since the third quarter of 2000 are described in

the second-to-last section of this article.

A Student’s t test was applied to the recession and nonrecession changes to see if the

difference between the two groups of changes

is statistically significant. Statistical significance implies that the series is cyclical or

William C. Goodman is

an economist in the

Office of Employment

and Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Employment in services industries

affected by recessions and expansions

Although employment in the Services Division has had

a recession-resistant image, some industries

within Services do lose jobs while others gain

more jobs than usual during recessions

William C. Goodman
4 Monthly Labor Review October 2001

Employment in Services

Table 1. Cyclical and countercyclical employment series from the Services Division, 1947 to 2000

Number Loses jobs

 Industry group Starting point of recessions Statistical in average

of data in series significance2 recessionary

quarter?

Total Services Division ..................................... 19473 9 0.5 Yes No

Gross domestic product .................................... 19473 9 1.5 Yes N/A

Engineering, management services .................. 1988 1 1.8 Yes Yes

Business services ............................................. 1958 6 1.4 Yes No

Agricultural services ......................................... 1976 3 1.1 Yes No

Automotive services ......................................... 1972 4 1.1 Yes No

Miscellaneous repairs ........................................ 1964 5 1.0 Yes Yes

Lodging .............................................................. 1972 4 .7 Yes No

Personal services ............................................. 1958 6 .7 Yes Yes

Miscellaneous services ..................................... 1988 1 .4 No No

Motion pictures .................................................. 1988 1 .4 No No

Museums, gardens, zoos .................................. 1988 1 .2 No No

Membership organizations ................................. 1972 4 .1 No No

 Countercyclical groups

Private education .............................................. 1958 6 –.5 No ...

Legal services ................................................... 1972 4 –.4 No ...

Health services ................................................. 1958 6 –.3 Yes ...

Social services.................................................. 1972 4 –.2 No ...

Amusements, recreation ................................... 1988 1 –.1 No ...

1 “Difference” is the difference between the average quarter-to-quarter

percent change during general economic expansions and the average quarter-to-quarter percent change during recessions.

2 Statistical significance is based on a Student’s t test, comparing quarter-to-quarter percent changes during recessions with those of other times.

A two-tailed test with a 5-percent probability criterion was used.

3 Data are available earlier than the date shown, but only data from 1947

to the third quarter of 2000 are used in this article.

Difference1

Cyclical groups

countercyclical by its nature rather than by chance and therefore further implies that the series is likely to remain cyclical or

countercyclical in the future, unless some aspect of the industry changes in a way that affects the trends of the industry’s

employment.

The approach used in this article, then, is designed to show

differences in job trends between periods of general economic

expansions and periods of recession. The results do not reflect another form of cyclicality: the degree of association of

an industry’s job trends with GDP trends within periods of

general economic growth (neither within a single period of

expansion nor across various expansions). Similarly, the results stated here do not reflect the degree of association of

industry-specific employment change with GDP change within

a recession, nor across various recessions. In another article,

correlations between the trend of a specific industry and the

trend of GDP capture how the industry does or does not accelerate or decelerate along with GDP over time regardless of

whether the economy continues to expand, turns, or continues to decline.1 By contrast, this article primarily describes

differences between a series’ trend during recessions and its

trend during general economic expansions.

Caveats

The various time-series may have differing cycles of their own,

leading, lagging, or behaving independently of the overall

business cycle. To compare the cyclicality of the various series, some common basis of comparison had to be used. The

official recession periods were chosen.2 This study, then,

may not capture all the cyclicality of employment in some

industries, particularly any whose timing of expansion and

contraction differs much from the general business cycle. This

study does, however, directly reflect the various industries’

participation in, or reduction of the general economic cycle.

Certain employment series in services have relatively short

histories, starting in 1982 or later. Those series include only

one official recession in its entirety: the recession of July 1990

to March 1991. Possibly, the industry behaved differently in

the one official recession than in other recessions. In the

cases of industries with recorded employment including only

the one recession, particular attention should be paid to statistical significance or the lack of it. Deceleration or decline in

the one latest recession without statistical significance may

be by chance.
Monthly Labor Review October 2001 5

The major industry groups

Table 1 identifies which major industry groups of the services

division have cyclical or countercyclical histories and which

major groups show statistical significance in their cyclicality

or countercyclicality. In the table, the major groups are divided into two categories: cyclical and countercyclical. Within

each category, industry groups are shown in order of the

amount of difference between their behavior in recessions

and their behavior in general economic expansions. Specifically, the groups within each category are ordered according

to the difference between average quarterly percent change

during general economic expansions and average percent

change during recessions. Two major industry groups, engineering and management services and business services,

have degrees of cyclicality, as indicated by their difference,

comparable to that of GDP. Other major groups, including

both cyclical and countercyclical ones, have milder differences.

The most cyclical industries

As previously stated, the Services Division as a whole is cyclical. (See chart 1.) Among the division’s major components,

engineering and management services are most cyclical, and

furthermore have been one of the few major groups in the

division to lose jobs, as opposed to merely decelerating, in

the average recessionary quarter. All of the group’s four main

components (engineering and architectural services, accounting and auditing, research and testing, and management and

public-relations services) have been cyclical, and three of them

(excluding only the smallest component, research and testing) have lost jobs in the average quarter of a recession.

Engineering and management services are sold mainly to

businesses. The engineering and architectural component

sells 70 percent of its output to businesses, and more than

half of that 70 percent is sold to construction contractors.

Nine percent of the portion of output sold to businesses is

sold to manufacturers. Contractual engineering and architectural services depend, then, on demand from construction

and manufacturing.3

Eighty-four percent of the output of management and public-relations services is sold to businesses, most of all to the

Services Division. Management consulting is an important

industry within management and public relations. Both engineering and architectural services and management and

public-relations services depend heavily on projects, as opposed to ongoing production, for demand. Such projects

include construction projects, development of new products,

and major changes to internal business processes. Both engineering and architectural services and management and

public-relations services show cyclicality with statistical significance and furthermore actually lose jobs in recessions.

Business services, another cyclical major group (chart 2),

include two large components, help supply and computer

services. Both components show cyclicality with statistical

significance. Help supply, which is composed of agencies

that provide workers to other businesses on a contractual

basis, employs massive numbers of workers and actually

declines in employment during recessions. Help supply lost

41,000 workers from January 1982 (the earliest point in the

time-series, which happened to be during a recession) to the

end of the recession in November 1982 and lost 56,000 workers in the recession of the early nineties. The computer services industry, which includes production of software, has a

longer time-series (since 1972). During recessions, the industry has slowed but has not lost jobs. Somewhat like engineering and management services, help supply and computer services benefit from projects as well as from ongoing activities.

While some employees who are furnished by staffing agencies may work indefinitely or intermittently for clients, others

are used for specific temporary activities. Computer services

include custom software creation, as in a corporate, military,

or nondefense government project; the corporate projects are

often designed to improve a business process.

Like engineering and architectural services, agricultural

services, because of their landscaping and horticultural component, are partially dependent on the level of activity in construction. Agricultural services also have a cyclical history.

Although they sell a majority (60 percent) of their output to

businesses, the growth in sales has been mainly in sales to

consumers, who may also cut back on professional horticultural services when they become unemployed or become less

confident of continued employment.

Automotive services also are cyclical. Passenger-car

rental and leasing, automotive repair, and other automotive

services, such as car washes, are all cyclical with statistical

significance. Automotive repair, the largest component, is

most responsible for the cyclicality of automotive services as

a whole.

The miscellaneous repair industry also is cyclical. Surprisingly perhaps, most of its output (71 percent) is sold to

businesses. The largest chunk of its sales to businesses

(about a third of the portion of output sold to businesses) is

purchased by the manufacturing division, suggesting that

warranty work accounts for much of the output of the miscellaneous repair industry. Reduced sales of appliances and

other machinery during recessions would account for a considerable loss of warranty business. The miscellaneous repair

business does lose jobs, instead of just decelerating, during

the average recessionary quarter.

The lodging industry sells about half of its services to

consumers and about half to businesses. Lodging is highly

cyclical in the context of the division. Although lodging does

not lose jobs during the average recessionary quarter, its rate

of growth is cut to about one-sixth of its rate during economic

expansions.

Personal services is one of only three cyclical major groups
6 Monthly Labor Review October 2001

Employment in Services

 Quarter-to-quarter change in business services through economic cycles, 1958 to 2000

 

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

NOTE: Shaded areas indicate recessions.

Change in thousands of 

jobs, seasonally adjusted

Chart 2.

1959 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

 Quarter-to-quarter change in jobs in the Services Division through business cycles,

 1950 to 2000

Change in thousands, 

seasonally adjusted

NOTE: Shaded areas indicate recessions.

-100

0

100

200

300

400

500

1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Chart 1.
Monthly Labor Review October 2001 7

Table 2. Percent change in enrollment in private higher

 education, 1965 to 1997

 Year Percent change

1965 ................................................. 7.7

1966 ................................................. 4.6

1967 ................................................. 2.7

1968 ................................................. –.7

1969 ................................................. 1.2

1970 ................................................. 2.1

1971 ................................................. –.4

1972 ................................................. .0

1973 ................................................. 1.8

1974 ................................................. 2.4

1975 ................................................. 5.1

1976 ................................................. .4

1977 ................................................. 3.4

1978 ................................................. 1.4

1979 ................................................. 2.4

1980 ................................................. 4.2

1981 ................................................. 3.2

1982 ................................................. .2

1983 ................................................. 1.9

1984 ................................................. –.6

1985 ................................................. .1

1986 ................................................. .8

1987 ................................................. .1

1988 ................................................. 3.6

1989 ................................................. 2.3

1990 ................................................. .4

1991 ................................................. 2.5

1992 ................................................. 1.8

1993 ................................................. .4

1994 ................................................. .9

1995 ................................................. .8

1996 ................................................. 1.3

1997 ................................................. –.3

1

A recession was in progress during fall of the year.

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education.

1

1

1

1

1

in the Services Division to lose jobs in the average quarter of

a recession. The cyclicality of personal services is attributable to two of its components: laundry, cleaning, and garment services and barber shops. The laundry, cleaning, and

dry-cleaning industry gains workers during the average quarter of general expansion and loses far more workers (0.9 percent) during a quarter of recession. Barber shops lose workers normally, but lose far more (2.4 percent per quarter or 9.2

percent annually) during recessions. Both industries exhibit

statistically significant cyclicality.

Motion pictures, surprisingly perhaps, sells slightly more

of its output to businesses than to consumers. One explanation is that production of filmed advertisements is included.

Advertising activities are cut back in recessions; employment

in the advertising industry itself also is cyclical.

In summary, the two largest and most cyclical of the cyclical major groups in the Services Division (business services

and engineering and management services) sell more of their

output to the business community than to consumers. Cutbacks in interindustry purchases, as opposed to consumption, account directly for most of the cyclicality of the Services Division.

Countercyclical industries

As shown in table 1, there are fewer countercyclical main

components in the Services Division than there are cyclical

ones. Just the same, the major industry group with the greatest employment in the division, health services (with more

than 10 million employees), is countercyclical. (See chart 3.)

Demand for health care is relatively unaffected by recessions,

because to the consumer, healthcare can be a necessity rather

than an optional commodity whose purchase can be postponed. Furthermore, Medicare, Medicaid, and private insurance provide funding dedicated solely to healthcare, so that

much of the funding is not subject to competition with other

types of purchases, and benefits remain available to persons

during periods of unemployment.4

But to be truly countercyclical as defined in this article,

the industry must not only resist recessions but also must

grow more rapidly during recessions than during expansions.

Table 1 indicates that employment in health services is indeed countercyclical. If people need more healthcare services

during recessions, countercyclical demand for treatment is

implied. But a study by Christopher J. Ruhm provides evidence that health actually improves during recessions. He

shows that mortality and eight major causes of death are

more frequent in times of economic expansion. He cites empirical support for two explanations. “Tobacco use exhibits a

strong procyc[ l ]ical variation, possibly explaining some of

the health improvement that accompanies economic downturns. A one percentage point increase in the state unemployment rate reduces the predicted number of current smokers by 0.3 percentage points.” Also, he provides evidence

indicating that “physical activity rises and diet improves

when the economy weakens.”5 The idea that worsening

health conditions during recessions create greater demand,

then, is questionable.

While worse health during recessions may not be a reality,

another factor is. Considerable evidence shows that healthcare is subject to labor shortages, which intensify in prosperous times and are somewhat relieved in a sluggish or shrinking economy. The countercyclical effects of labor shortages

in hospitals are described by John Andrews:

An economic downturn means the unemployment

rate could rise and people will actually need jobs.

That would be a great relief to an industry

[healthcare] with job vacancies galore, created by

forces outlined in Economics 101: high demand for

workers that are in short supply. 6

In addition to the problems of hospitals, low pay in nurs-
8 Monthly Labor Review October 2001

Employment in Services

ing homes, another part of the healthcare industry, has been

identified as a factor contributing to the nursing-home labor

shortage.7

The introduction of more restrictive rules governing Medicare and Medicaid payments constitutes another factor that

has contributed to the countercyclicality of healthcare. Important restrictions were introduced in 1983, 1996, 1997, and

1998, which were all years of economic expansion. The restrictions of Medicare and Medicaid payments slowed the

growth of healthcare jobs.8 The timing of the restrictions,

during economic expansions, may be considered a factor that

is extraneous to the business cycle. The health services group

may not be intrinsically as countercyclical as it appears.

The remaining ostensibly countercyclical industries do not

show statistical significance in their countercyclicality.

Therefore they should not be regarded as having any proven

countercyclical nature, at least not in terms of the statistical

approach used in this article. Just the same, one may ask why

the industries did not clearly participate in business cycles.

The following factors may at least prevent the industries from

being more cyclical than they are.

Among ostensibly countercyclical major groups of the division, private education reportedly has countercyclical tendencies because more people go to school when they cannot

find jobs. Figures representing enrollment in private higher

education, however, show no readily apparent distinction

between recession periods and other years. (See table 2.)

Instead, we can consider a factor that may explain much of

the countercyclicality of various industries. That factor is the

availability of more attractive job opportunities in other industries during times of economic expansion. In addition to

the health services industry, a shortage of child day care

workers (in the broader category of social services) also has

been attributed to better paying opportunities; “demanding

work for little pay” typifies the day-care industry. 9 Another

of the countercyclical groups, amusements and recreation,

also pays much less on average than nonagricultural private

employment in general. Private colleges also typically offer

many low-paying jobs. Labor shortages in lower paying industries during economic expansions, then, may contribute

to their noncyclical or countercyclical behavior.

Alternative comparison

A preceding section noted that an earlier article used a different definition of cyclicality. In that article,10 Berman and

Pfleeger correlated employment of various industries with GDP,

and used the correlation coefficients as indications of

cyclicality. The present article, instead, uses the difference

between series’ behavior during recessions and their behavior during economic expansions as an indication of cyclicality.

The main question in this article is whether the employment

Employment in health services through business cycles, 1958 to 2000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

Jobs in thousands, 

seasonally adjusted

NOTE: Shaded areas indicate recessions.

Jan. 

1958

Jan. 

1970

Jan. 

1975

Jan. 

1980

Jan. 

1990

Jan. 

1985

Jan. 

2000

Jan. 

1965

Jan. 

1995

Chart 3.
Monthly Labor Review October 2001 9

Table 3. Comparison of two indications of cyclicality in Services-Division industry groups, seasonally adjusted, 1958 to 2000

Difference between average Correlation coefficient from

quarterly percent change correlation of percent

during general economic change in industry’s

expansion and average employment

 quarterly percent change with percent

during recession change in GDP

Engineering and management services ......................................... 1.8 0.480

Business services ......................................................................... 1.4 .515

Agricultural services ...................................................................... 1.1 .287

Automotive services ...................................................................... 1.1 .550

Miscellaneous repairs ..................................................................... 1.0 .354

Lodging ........................................................................................... .7 .385

Personal services .......................................................................... .7 .173

Miscellaneous services .................................................................. .4 –.082

Motion pictures ............................................................................... .4 .045

Museums, gardens, zoos ............................................................... .2 .046

Membership organizations .............................................................. .1 .038

Amusements and recreation .......................................................... –.1 .073

Social services .............................................................................. –.2 .089

Health services .............................................................................. –.3 –.058

Legal services ................................................................................ –.4 .074

Private education ........................................................................... –.5 –.105

Industry group

series behave differently during recessions than they do in

other times; a major question in the Berman-Pfleeger article is

how closely the employment series follow the trends of GDP

as it fluctuates, regardless of whether or not a recession is

occurring.

Because this article utilizes somewhat different industry

strata than those used by Berman and Pfleeger and because it

uses later data, new correlations between the appropriate

employment series’ quarterly percent change and the percent

change of GDP were calculated. Table 3 compares the new

correlation coefficients with the “differences” defined in table

1. Not surprisingly, the industries with the higher differences

generally have the higher correlation coefficients. To compare the overall results of the two methods, the differences

(shown in the second column of table 3) were correlated with

the correlation coefficients (in the third column). The resulting correlation coefficient of 0.852 is statistically significant

well beyond the 0.2 percent level of probability, meaning that

agreement between the two sets of results is almost certainly

not by chance. We can conclude that those Services Division

industries that decelerate most during recessions are generally those whose trends most resemble the trends of GDP

through all sorts of economic times.

Latest trends

From the third quarter of 2000 to the second quarter of 2001,

there was a decelerating trend in employment as estimated

from the Current Employment Statistics survey. The Services

Division participated in the slowdown, exhibiting cyclical and

countercyclical behavior in various components.

The Services Division as a whole gained jobs in the three

quarters starting with the last quarter of 2000 at a rate closer to

its recessionary average than to its average during expansions. In fact, the percent increase per quarter (0.36 percent)

in the three recent quarters is actually well below even the

average during recessions (0.60 percent).

To identify which Services industries contributed most to

the slowdown that began in the last quarter of 2000, the employment change during the first three quarters of 2000 was

compared with the change during the subsequent three quarters. In table 4, a negative value in the “Difference” column

represents a slowdown or reversal in the more recent period.

Within the division, business services contributed most

heavily to the slowdown in hiring. Although business services has not lost jobs in the average quarter of official recessions, business services declined by 224,000 jobs in the recent three quarters. Personnel supply services, although rapidly expanding until recently, were primarily responsible for

the change in trend in business services. Personnel supply

lost 342,000 jobs during the recent three quarters.

Engineering and management services and lodging, two

additional definitely cyclical groups, made the second- and

third-largest contributions to the slowdown in the division.

Lodging and engineering and management each slowed by

about 45,000 jobs. The rate of increase in the last three quarters in lodging was almost exactly equal to its average in

recessions. Engineering and management services, however, have not behaved recently quite as they do in recessions. Engineering and management services lose jobs in

the average quarter of a recession but gained jobs in the last

three quarters, though at a rate reduced from the prior three

quarters.

The bulk of the slowdown in the division, then, is due to
10 Monthly Labor Review October 2001

Employment in Services

Table 4. Contributions of major industry groups in the Services Division to the job-growth slowdown of 2000 to 2001

Change in jobs, thousands, seasonally adjusted1

2000: 1st quarter 2000: 4th quarter

through through Difference

2000: 3rd quarter 2001: 2nd quarter (B minus A)

(A) (B)

Services Division ............................................................... 953 437 –516

 Cyclical groups .................................

Engineering and management services ............................. 127 80 –47

Business services ............................................................. 348 –224 –572

Agricultural services .......................................................... 19 29 10

Automotive services .......................................................... 36 50 14

Miscellaneous repairs ......................................................... –3 -3 0

Lodging ............................................................................... 55 10 –45

Personal services .............................................................. 19 20 1

Miscellaneous services ...................................................... 0 1 1

Motion pictures ................................................................... –8 3 11

Museums, gardens, zoos ................................................... 5 3 –2

Membership organizations .................................................. 17 23 6

 Countercyclical groups ............................

Amusements and recreation ............................................. 63 35 –28

Social services .................................................................. 70 139 69

Health services .................................................................. 100 188 88

Legal services .................................................................... 8 14 6

Private education ............................................................... 55 71 16

1 Major groups do not add to Division because the Services Division also includes nonclassifiable establishments, not shown.

 Industry group

three major groups with definitely cyclical histories. The four

other services industries that are cyclical with statistical significance either show no difference in growth between the

two 9-month periods (miscellaneous repairs and personal services) or show stronger growth in the three later quarters

(agricultural services and automotive services).

Two major groups with at least nominally countercyclical

histories accelerated substantially. Health services and social services gained jobs impressively.

In the latest three quarters, health services accelerated by

88,000 jobs. The acceleration, however, is probably due, at least

in part, to recent changes in Medicare and Medicaid payment

policies, which might exaggerate a countercyclical pattern.

Social services accelerated by 69,000 jobs. Although social services has not established statistically significant

countercyclicality, its acceleration in job growth during the

recent general slowdown adds to the evidence suggesting

that the group is countercyclical.

Conclusion

The Services Division as a whole and a majority of its main

components show cyclicality, at least in the sense that the

growth of jobs slows during recessions. Only three of the

main components, namely engineering and management services, personal services, and miscellaneous repairs, actually

lose jobs in the average quarter of a recession. The components contributing most to the cyclicality of the division, engineering and management services and business services,

sell their output primarily to other businesses, so that the

cyclicality of the division is driven more by business activity

than by consumer purchases.

Five major groups show countercyclicality in the sense

that growth during recessions exceeds growth during general

economic expansions. Partly because of the countercyclical

components, the division as a whole has relatively mild

cyclicality; its rate of growth is reduced by about one-half

percentage point during the average recessionary quarter,

while the quarterly percent change of GDP shows three times

the effect, varying by 1.5 percentage points between the average recessionary quarter and the average quarter of economic

expansions.

Reasons for the countercyclicality of various components

of the division vary. Several at least ostensibly countercyclical

components, however, appear to be subject to the effects of

labor shortages, which ease during recessions, thus making

more people available for less desired, often lower paying

jobs.

In recent quarters, business services and engineering and

management services, two cyclical and enterprise-related

components, contributed most heavily to the slowdown in

hiring within the division. 
Monthly Labor Review October 2001 11

2

 Recessions are determined by the National Bureau of Economic

Research.

3

 Sales data in this article are from the Office of Occupational

Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics.

4 David R. H. Hiles, “Health services: the real jobs machine,”

Monthly Labor Review, November 1992, p. 13.

5

 Christopher J. Ruhm, “Are Recessions Good for your Health?”

Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1, 2000.

6

 John Andrews, “Labor shortages plague hospitals A shrinking labor

pool is forcing hospitals to get creative,” Materials Management in

Health Care, Feb. 2001. See also Che Parker, “AHA report shows staffing shortages threaten access to quality health care,” AHA News (American Hospital Association), June 11, 2001.

7

 Joan Conroy, past president of the Maryland chapter of the National Association of Directors of Nursing in Long Term Care, is quoted

in Diana K. Sugg and staff, “Nursing staffs shrink; quality, availability

of medical care suffer,” The Baltimore Sun, Mar. 19, 2000.

8

 Hiles, pp. 3–16, and Cynthia Engel, “Health services industry:

still a job machine?” Monthly Labor Review, March 1999, pp. 3–14.

9

 See the website of the Children’s Defense Fund http://

navigation.helper.realnames.com/framer/1/112/

default.asp?realname=Children%27s+Defense+Fund&url=http%3A%2F%

2Fwww%2Echildrensdefense%2Eorg&frameid=1&providerid=112&uid

=30008170 (visited July 18, 2001) and, as one example of a newspaper account, “Miss. day-care centers face downside of good economy,”

Baton Rouge Advocate, Dec. 29, 1998. Quote is from latter source.

10 Berman and Pfleeger, Monthly Labor Review, pp. 19–25.

Notes

1

 Jay Berman and Janet Pfleeger, “Which industries are sensitive to

business cycles?” Monthly Labor Review, February 1997, pp. 19–25.