U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Summary 12-1 / February 2012

Issues in Labor Statistics

BLS

Work absences due to bad 

weather: analysis of data from 

1977 to 2010

Major weather events capture the public’s 

attention, certainly among those who may 

be subject to the adverse weather and must 

prepare for it, but also because most people are 

fascinated by the power of nature. At their worst, 

events such as blizzards, hurricanes, tornados, 

and floods create life-threatening conditions 

that can lead to tragedy. On a more mundane 

level, they often result in temporary school and 

business closures and absences from work.

Information on weather-related work absences 

is available from the Current Population Survey 

(CPS), the monthly survey of U.S. households 

that provides the national unemployment rate 

and other labor force information. Although the 

CPS does not capture all work absences that are 

due to weather events, it provides a limited, yet 

interesting, look at how weather can affect the 

labor force.

The key limitation with using the CPS to identify 

the effects of weather on work absences—a 

purpose for which it was not designed—is the 

strictly defined weeklong survey reference 

period.1 Survey respondents’ employment and 

absence status is based on their work activities 

during this single week. If a weather event 

occurs outside the reference week or at the very 

end of the week, related work absences will not 

be reflected in the survey. Nonetheless, major 

weather events that are captured in the survey 

provide an excellent means of evaluating the 

impact of adverse weather on work attendance, 

identifying the type of weather that results in 

the most work absences, and locating the most 

significant specific weather events registered in 

the CPS.2

 

For the analysis that follows, two monthly CPS 

data series were summed to provide a broad 

estimate of weather-related work absences. 

One series reflects the number of workers (both 

full and part time) who were absent from work 

for the entire reference week because of bad 

weather. The other series reflects the number of 

full-time workers (those who usually work 35 or 

more hours per week) who worked fewer than 35 

hours during the reference week, again because 

of bad weather. To evaluate weather-related 

absences over time, the combined number of 

absences from the two series was calculated as 

a percentage of the total number of employed 

persons in order to create a national weather 

absence rate.3 These data reflect the broadest 

scope of CPS employment, including both 

agricultural and nonagricultural workers, the 

self-employed, wage and salary workers, private 

household workers, and unpaid workers in family 

businesses.

On the basis of monthly averages of these 

weather-related absences from 1977 to 2010,4 
2

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

the winter months are those in which workers 

are most likely to be absent because of bad 

weather; the summer months are the least likely. 

(See chart 1.) January had the highest weather 

absence rate, with an average of 1.9 percent of 

workers with an absence, followed by February 

at 1.5 percent, and December at 0.8 percent. 

This observation is perhaps not surprising, given 

that January is, on average, the coldest month of 

the year in virtually all of the states and weather 

can be severe throughout a large section of the 

country in that month.

Examining average absences for calendar 

years from 1977 through 2010 makes it clear 

that the years recording a high weather absence 

rate were those in which severe winter weather 

occurred. (See chart 2.) Notably high annual 

weather-related absence rates (in which 1 

percent or more of workers had absences) were 

observed in 1977–78, 1982, 1994, and 1996. 

In the full monthly data series of weatherrelated absences, several specific weather 

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Jul. Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

Average number of workers Percentage of workers

Chart 1. Average number and percentage of workers who missed work because 

of bad weather, by month

NOTE: The data shown here are derived from published CPS data series and include agricultural and 

nonagricultural workers, the self-employed, wage and salary workers, private household workers, and unpaid 

workers in family businesses.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), monthly averages, 1977–2010

Thousands of workers Percentage of workers
3

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

Table 1. Top weather-related work absence events in the Current Population Survey, 1977–2010

Period

Percentage of 

workers with work 

absences

Weather event

January 1996 10.1 “Blizzard of ‘96” 

January 1982 9.5 Extreme cold spell

January 1977 6.2 Extreme cold spell

February 1994 6.1 Snow and ice storms

January 1978 5.0 Heavy snowfall

February 2010 4.8 “Snowmageddon”

events stand out, all of them winter storms. 

(See table 1.) The January “Blizzard of ’96” 

recorded the most weather-related absences, 

with 10.1 percent of workers (or about 12.5 

million) affected. From January 6 to January 8, 

1996, the eastern United States—in particular, 

the major cities along the east coast—was hit 

with cold temperatures and a huge accumulation 

of snow. Snowfall from this storm surpassed or 

approached record levels in several metropolitan 

areas. The National Weather Service estimated 

that the entire eastern third of the country was 

affected to some degree by this storm.5

 The 

National Climatic Data Center assessed the 

Blizzard of ’96 as “extreme,” the highest rating 

on their Northeast Snow Impact Scale (NESIS).6

The second-most-significant weather event in 

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 2004 2007 2010

Average number of workers Percentage of workers

Bad winters, 

1977–78 Extreme cold 

spell, January 

1982

Snow and ice 

storms, February 

1994

“Blizzard of ’96”

Chart 2. Number and percentage of workers who missed work because of bad 

weather, annual averages, 1977–2010

NOTE: The data shown here are derived from published CPS data series and include agricultural and 

nonagricultural workers, the self-employed, wage and salary workers, private household workers, and unpaid 

workers in family businesses.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey (CPS), annual averages, 1977—2010.

Thousands of workers Percentage of workers
4

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

the data series occurred in January 1982, when 9.5 

percent of workers (9.3 million) missed work because 

of extreme cold and winter weather conditions. From 

January 10 to January 12, a massive arctic air mass 

moved down from Canada and brought severe cold 

to the eastern two-thirds of the country. Record low 

temperatures were recorded in a number of cities. 

Many southern states experienced freezing rain and 

ice. 

Several other major winter weather systems, 

in January of 1977 and 1978 and in February 

1994 (involving 5.5, 4.6, and 7.4 million workers, 

respectively), resulted in work absence rates 

between 5.0 percent and 6.2 percent. 

On the basis of these monthly and annual 

observations, winter weather conditions and 

events clearly result in the most weather-related 

work absences, as measured by the CPS. One 

reason is that winter storm systems can affect 

much larger geographic areas than other weather 

events do, spreading over a greater expanse of 

the North American continent than a hurricane, 

80.4

50.6

95.7

51.8

19.6

49.4

4.3

48.2

February 1994: 

snow and ice storms

January 1996: 

"Blizzard of '96"

September 1999: 

Hurricane Floyd

February 2010: 

"Snowmageddon"

Percent paid Percent not paid

Chart 3. Pay status of nonagricultural wage and salary workers with weather-related 

absences during selected weather events, 1994–2010

NOTE: These data exclude agricultural workers, the self-employed, private household workers, and unpaid 

workers in family businesses.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, special tabulations from the Current Population Survey (CPS).
5

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

for example. In addition, winter weather systems 

can bring a wide range of conditions that make 

transportation difficult and sometimes nearly 

impossible: heavy snowfall, freezing rain and 

ice, and high winds that can blow snow and 

reduce visibility. When such systems hit the 

major metropolitan areas of the Midwest and 

the eastern seaboard, for example, they can 

cause significant disruption to transportation and 

business activities among a sizable population. 

Aside from winter weather, Hurricane Floyd, 

in September 1999, was the only other event to 

register a noticeable spike in absences in the 

CPS data.7

 The storm and subsequent flooding 

over part of the east coast caused 2.7 percent 

of workers (3.6 million) to be absent from work.8

When weather-related absences occur, one 

question that arises is, Do workers receive pay 

for their time away from work? To address this 

issue, special tabulations of weather-related 

absences among nonagricultural wage and 

salary workers were created for recent years and 

selected weather events; these data reflect only 

workers who were absent for the entire reference 

week.9

 An examination of such data for 2004–

2009 (years for which there were no major 

weather events in the CPS data series) shows 

that, generally speaking, most weather-related 

absences in a given month are likely to be unpaid. 

During major weather events, however, the pay 

status of absent workers is less predictable. Chart 

3 shows special tabulations of the proportion of 

unpaid and paid absences for four major weather 

events since 1994. During Hurricane Floyd in 

September 1999, for example, the vast majority 

with weather-related absences were not paid 

for their time away from work. Among winter 

weather events, most workers absent during 

the February 1994 snow and ice storms did not 

get paid. During the historic blizzards in January 

1996 and in February 2010, however, nearly half 

received pay. (Research into possible reasons 

for the variations in pay status was beyond the 

scope of this article.) 

On the basis of these special tabulations, 

one cannot automatically assume that most 

nonagricultural wage and salary workers will 

go without pay during major weather events. 

This caveat should serve as a caution to those 

who would use the weather-absence data from 

the CPS to project or evaluate over-the-month 

changes in nonfarm payroll employment from 

the BLS Current Employment Statistics Survey 

(CES) survey—a monthly survey of employers 

that counts paid employees only.10 There are 

other reasons to be cautious about using the 

data this way as well. First, unlike CPS data, 

CES survey data are not restricted to a single 

reference week. Workers are counted in the 

CES if they received pay for any part of their 

employer’s pay period that includes the 12th 

of the month: a single-week period, a 2-week 

period, or even a monthlong period. Second, the 

published CPS weather-absence series that is 
6

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

Notes

1 In most months, the survey reference period is the calendar week (Sunday 

through Saturday) that includes the 12th of the month; it is modified on 

occasion to avoid major holidays that could impede data collection. For 

example, the current practice is that the December reference week cannot 

extend beyond December 13. Also, the November reference week is moved 

a week earlier if Thanksgiving falls during the week that includes the 19th 

of the month, when survey interviews would otherwise be conducted.

2 Severe weather events in less populated areas obviously will not reflect 

as many work absences as those which occur in more densely populated 

parts of the country. All of the weather-related absence data produced by 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) from the CPS are at the national level; 

BLS has not developed regional or state estimates of this type.

3 The CPS does not collect weather-related absence information on parttime workers (those who usually work fewer than 35 hours per week) who 

missed some work, but not the entire week. Therefore, part-timers who 

worked fewer hours than usual because of bad weather are not represented 

in the absence data in this analysis. Those who were absent for the entire 

reference week are included.

4 This portion of the analysis covers the period back to 1977 because that 

is the first year for which data are readily available for a full calendar year. 

5 Blizzard of ’96 Service Assessment (U.S. Department of Commerce, 

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather 

Service, December 1996), http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/assessments/

pdfs/bz-mrg.pdf. 

6 See the National Climatic Data Center’s NESIS webpage at http://

www.ncdc.noaa.gov/snow-and-ice/nesis.php for more information. The 

NESIS scale provides a numerical value assessment to “high-impact” 

snowstorms in the Northeastern United States. The values are influenced by 

the geographic area covered by the storm, the amount of snow, and the size 

of the population directly affected.

7 Hurricane Katrina, the devastating storm that struck New Orleans and 

the Gulf Coast region, occurred outside the CPS reference period, making 

landfall in Louisiana on August 29, 2005. For more information about 

the special circumstances related to survey data for this historic weather 

event, see “Effects of Hurricane Katrina on the Current Population Survey,” 

http://www.bls.gov/katrina/cpscesquestions.htm#2, and Lawrence S. 

Cahoon, Diane E. Herz, Richard C. Ning, Anne E. Polivka, Maria E. Reed, 

Edwin L. Robison, and Gregory D. Weyland, “CPS Program Response: The 

Current Population Survey Response to Hurricane Katrina,” Monthly Labor 

Review, August 2006, pp. 40–51, http://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2006/08/

art4full.pdf. 

8 Note that Hurricane Floyd struck relatively late in the survey reference 

week, hitting the North Carolina coast on Thursday, September 16. 

9 The CPS gathers information about whether workers who were absent 

available to the public includes self-employed 

workers, a group not in the scope of the CES 

survey, and it includes both those with paid and 

those with unpaid absences. Only those who 

were not paid and who were absent for the entire 

pay period would be excluded from the monthly 

CES employment estimates. Consequently, one 

can assume that the published CPS weatherabsence data will show a greater impact from 

weather events than would actually register in 

the CES nonfarm payroll employment series.11

In sum, CPS data indicate that weatherrelated work absences are most likely to result 

from winter weather, with January, February, 

and December, respectively, averaging the 

most absences. The highest weather absence 

rates measured from CPS data have all been 

associated with winter storms, most notably the 

January “Blizzard of ’96.” Recent data show that 

nonagricultural wage and salary workers who 

miss a full week of work because of bad weather 

typically go without pay for the time off. Data 

observations from a few historic weather events, 

however, indicate that there have been instances 

when many workers did receive pay for absences 

during a major storm.

This Issues paper was written by Mary 

Bowler, an economist in the Division of Labor 

Force Statistics, Office of Employment and 

Unemployment Statistics. Email: CPSinfo@bls.

gov. Telephone: (202) 691-6378.
7

Issues in Labor Statistics February 2012

Work absences due to bad weather:

analysis of data from 1977 to 2012

from their jobs for the entire reference week received pay for any of the 

time off. BLS has not previously tabulated the pay status for weatherrelated absences; the data presented in this section are special tabulations 

done specifically for the analysis presented here. These particular data were 

restricted to those who worked in nonagricultural wage and salary jobs 

and excluded the self-employed, private household workers, and unpaid 

workers in family businesses. 

10 Some data users who follow major weather events erroneously assume 

that the number of persons who were absent for the CPS reference week 

because of bad weather (as measured by the CPS and published by BLS) are 

workers who would not be counted as employed in the CES survey for that 

month. That is not necessarily so, as described in the preceding narrative. 

11 For a general summary of the conceptual and methodological differences 

in the CPS and CES employment measures, see “Monthly Employment 

Situation Report: Quick Guide to Methods and Measurement Issues,” 

http://www.bls.gov/bls/empsitquickguide.htm.