Monthly Labor Review February 2005 21

School-to-Work Transition

Julie A. Yates is a

research economist,

Employment

Research and

Program

Development Staff,

in the Office of

Employment and

Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

E-mail:

Yates.Julie@bls.gov

Data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979

found that the average worker, approximately 5 years

after leaving school for the first time,

starts a job that will last 3 years;

however, there was considerable variation by education

The transition from school to work:

education and work experiences

Julie A. Yates Youths experience different trajectories in

their transition from school to work.

Some youths jump from job to job and

do not develop a steady employment relationship until many years after leaving school, if at

all. Others settle into a longer-term employment

relationship soon after leaving school. Some

policymakers and educators express concern that

many new entrants to the job market tend to experience periods of churning, moving from one low

paying job to another, without settling into a

longer-term relationship.1 This argument posits

that the time, sometimes many years, spent moving from one short-term job to another is nonproductive and steps should be taken to eliminate it.

Other analysts see this period of short employment spells in a more positive light. They

argue that early job mobility represents “job

shopping” where young workers learn about different work environments and their own skills and

interests.2 As youths acquire different work experiences, they are able to move into jobs that

better match their skills and interests, often with

higher wages. In this light, the job-shopping

phase can be beneficial for both workers and their

employers.

Education is clearly linked to these employment processes. In high school, youths learn

mainly general skills. These include not only hard

skills such as literacy and numeracy, but soft skills

such as punctuality, dependability, and following

directions. Because of their youth, those seeking

jobs just after high school may know less about

the world of work and be less committed to a particular occupation. Likewise, employers of these

youths have less information about their skills.

Both employer and employee may look at entrylevel jobs as a learning process by which each

can evaluate the long-term potential of their

“match.” College graduates, on the other hand,

invest more in specific skills and may acquire a

greater knowledge of the job market within their

field. They can match their interests to skills and

reject potential career paths before entering the

labor market. Employers of new college graduates have potentially greater knowledge of the

particular skills of their new hires, and, because

of the higher wages they must pay, more incentive to find a good match. For these reasons,

matches between new college graduates and their

employers may be expected to last longer than

those between new high school graduates and

employers. Youths who have left school without

a high school degree are doubly disadvantaged;

they lack both general and job-specific skills, and

they face employers who have low expectations

and little incentive to invest in their matches.

Consequently, schooling choices may dictate the

speed and ease of the school-to-work transition.

This article documents the transition from

school to work for a nationally representative

sample of men and women from the time they first

left school for a year or more until age 35. The

tables in this article describe the duration of employment relationships and time since leaving

school until holding a job for a specific number of

years. This will help to answer a number of questions about the transition from school to work,
School-to-Work Transition

22 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

such as: how does job changing evolve as individuals age;

how does job mobility behavior vary by education level and

other demographic characteristics; and finally, how long does

it take an average individual to settle into a longer-term job.

Other researchers have used the National Longitudinal

Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79) to study job changes, mostly

focusing on men. Some of the articles have been more descriptive like this one, although for earlier time periods.3

 Others engage in detailed empirical analysis, and generally try to

examine the causes and consequences of early job changes.4

In this article, we use data through 2002, which allows us to

trace individuals’ careers until age 35. Thus we can show

individuals’ job transitions from the end of school into the

workforce and up until mid-career.

Data and methods

The data. To adequately measure the path an individual

takes from the completion of schooling to stable employment, one needs longitudinal data that track respondents

over their working lives. In this article, the education and

employment histories are examined using NLSY79 data.

These data describe a sample of men and women who were

ages 14 to 22 in 1979 and 37 to 44 when interviewed in 2002.

In 2002, the sample—which includes an overrepresentation

of blacks and Hispanics—had 7,724 respondents. This

article defines the transition from school to work to occur

at the point when the individual leaves school for 12 months

or more. However, work histories in the NLSY79 data generally begin in January 1, 1978, or the respondent’s 16th

birthday, whichever is later. Thus, in order to view the

complete school-to-work transition without oversampling

those with higher education, only respondents born between January 1, 1961, and December 31, 1964—that is, the

last four birth cohorts of the NLSY79—are used.5 After

dropping respondents with incomplete data, there were a

total of 3,845 respondents. In all computations, weights

are used to adjust for different sampling rates and

nonresponse rates so that the data are a nationally representative sample of all youths born between 1961 and 1964

and living in the United States in 1979.

A key feature of the NLSY79 data set is that it records

much of the information as event histories; thus, the dates

of transitions are documented and updated with each interview. In the event history of employment, or work history, the “start” and “stop” dates of each job the respondent has held are recorded, as well as dates of nonwork

(such as maternity leave or layoff) within each job. This

allows various job-related measures, such as the number

of jobs held, weeks worked, and job tenure, to be calculated. In addition, because the dates of these job-related

behaviors are recorded for each individual, these variables

can be calculated for a specific period—for example, the

number of jobs each worker held during the 2 years before

the start date of a certain job can be determined. Using

the NLSY79 work history data, it is possible to construct

and link monthly records of school attendance or nonattendance with employment.

Defining school leaving groups. In this analysis, individuals are grouped based on their education level when they

first left school. Individuals were assigned to a school-leaving group based on the highest degree, if any, they reported

earning as of the time they first left school for 12 months or

longer.6 Thus, if an individual dropped out of school but

subsequently returned to finish high school within a 12-

month period, they would be classified as a high school

graduate and not a dropout. Similarly, individuals who completed high school and went to work full time, but within the

12-month period began taking night classes, would continue

to be viewed as ‘in school,’ despite their work schedule, until

they were no longer taking classes. Once determined that an

individual had left school for 12 months, even if the person

later returned to school and received a degree, the initial

school-leaving group to which they were assigned was not

changed.7

Table 1 describes the sample used in this article by educational category as well as the average age respondents first

left school.8 Twelve percent of the sample first left school at

approximately age 17 before attaining a high school degree

and are assigned to the category of dropouts. Approximately

55 percent of the sample first left school for at least 12 months

after attaining a high school degree; these respondents left

school approximately 1 year later (age 18) than dropouts.

Individuals with some college but who did not attain a

bachelor’s degree before first leaving school make up 22 percent of our sample, while 11 percent are those who attained a

college degree before first leaving school. The educational

outcomes of men were more dispersed than those of women;

men were both more likely to drop out and more likely to

complete college.9 Ethnic and racial differences in initial educational attainment are quite pronounced. Whites were more

likely than either blacks or Hispanics or Latinos to have either gone to college or earned a college degree and less likely

to drop out.

While the date first left school is a useful point to measure

the school-to-work transition, it does not always indicate the

final degree earned. Many individuals return to school, either by combining work and schooling or by leaving the labor force altogether. Table 2 shows that a large number of

individuals return to school at some point before they be-
Monthly Labor Review February 2005 23

come age 35; however, not everyone who returned to school

eventually received a degree. Fifty-three percent of high

school dropouts returned to school, as did 42 percent of high

school graduates. While 58 percent of initial dropouts never

received a high school diploma or GED (general equivalency

diploma), 28 percent of dropouts did eventually earn a high

school diploma; an additional 10 percent received some college education; and 4 percent went on to receive a college

degree or more. Again, ethnic and racial differences are quite

striking in this regard. When returning to school, whites in all

education categories were more likely to complete their college degree. As already noted, whites generally had more

education when they first left school. Thus, the process of

returning to school to complete unfinished degrees did not

close the racial gap in educational attainment, but instead

seemed to widen it.

As seen in the last column of table 1, by age 35, whites are

significantly less likely to have less than a high school diploma or GED and twice as likely to have completed college.

Only 6 percent of whites had not received a high school degree or GED by their 35th birthday compared with 10 percent

of blacks and 15 percent of Hispanics or Latinos. In contrast,

more than 30 percent of whites had received a college degree

compared with only 12 percent of blacks and Hispanics or

Latinos. In contrast, the gender gap in educational attainment is small; at 35, women have only slightly more education

than men.

The school-to-work transition

Duration of employment. The longitudinal nature and event

history data collection of the NLSY79 make the data set ideal

for studying job duration. A job-shopping model would suggest that the quality of job matches would increase with each

subsequent job. Thus the probability that one would find a

better match and switch jobs would decrease over time. This

tendency is reinforced by the development of job-specific

skills, which may not be valued by another employer. Theoretically, then, a successful transition to the labor market

should be characterized by increasing job tenure. Therefore,

Degree and age when first left school for 12 months or longer and degree when completed schooling,

by school-leaving group

Degree when first left Degree when

school completed schooling

High school dropouts ................................................................. 12.1 17.0 7.1

High school graduates ............................................................... 54.6 17.9 42.8

Some college ............................................................................ 22.0 21.4 23.7

College graduates ..................................................................... 11.3 23.8 26.5

Men ......................................................................................... – 19.3 –

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 12.6 17.1 7.4

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 54.2 18.0 44.4

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 19.6 21.6 21.1

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 12.6 24.0 26.1

Women ..................................................................................... – 19.2 –

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 10.6 16.9 6.1

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 55.0 17.9 40.8

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 24.5 21.3 26.3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 9.9 23.6 26.7

White (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. – 19.4 –

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 10.2 16.9 5.8

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 54.0 17.9 41.4

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 23.0 21.5 22.4

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 12.7 23.7 30.4

Black (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. – 18.9 –

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 17.0 17.4 10.0

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 58.7 18.1 49.0

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 19.1 21.3 28.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 5.1 24.2 12.1

Hispanic or Latino ..................................................................... – 18.7 –

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 22.7 16.9 15.4

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 54.2 18.0 45.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 16.9 21.3 26.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 6.1 25.3 12.4

NOTE: Educational attainment is defined as of the time they first left

school for 12 consecutive months. Our sample is 51 percent men; 49 percent

women; 77 percent non-Hispanic whites; 15 percent non-Hispanic blacks; and

7 percent Hispanics or Latinos.

Average age when first

left school for

12 months or longer

Original school-leaving group and characteristic

Table 1.
School-to-Work Transition

24 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

tenure of the longest job ever held can be used as an indicator

of the successful transition from school to work and into a

stable employment relationship.

Table 3 shows the duration of the longest job held.

Youths with a high school degree or less can learn about

interests and gain job-specific skills while on the job, and

those with some post high school education can gain jobspecific skills in the classroom. If these schooling choices

are equally suited for preparing youths for stable employment, then the duration of their longest job by age 35

should be similar. A period of churning or job shopping

would be expected from those who do not yet know their

skills and preferences. However, high school dropouts and

graduates should eventually obtain job- or employer-specific skills; find a compatible career path; and settle into

long-term jobs. From that point on they would, theoretically, have labor market behavior similar to youths who

spent that time gaining those skills in a classroom. Again,

the data disprove this. Even though high school dropouts

left school the earliest, were in the labor market for the

longest time—and therefore had the most time to start

down a career path—they are the least likely to have had

stable employment relationships lasting more than 2 years.

At age 20, 14 percent of dropouts have never held a job

and 58 percent had yet to hold a job for more than 1 year.

At age 35, approximately 18 years after leaving school for

the first time, 2 percent of dropouts have never held a job;

9 percent of dropouts have never held a job for more than

a year; and an additional 15 percent have never held a job

for 2 years or longer. Only 36 percent of high school dropouts had held a job for 5 years or more by age 35.

In contrast, those with at least some college or a

bachelor’s degree make the transition to stable employment—that is, a job lasting more than 2 years—the fastest.

By age 30, nearly 86 percent of those with some college

and 82 percent with a bachelor’s degree or more have held

a job for more than 2 years. And by age 35, about 95 percent of individuals in these two education categories have

Distribution of completed schooling, by school-leaving group

High school dropouts .......................................... 53.2 58.3 28.2 9.7 3.7

High school graduates ........................................ 42.1 – 72.1 22.9 5.0

Some college ..................................................... 54.6 – – 45.5 54.5

College graduates .............................................. 41.0 – – – 100.0

 Men

High school dropouts .......................................... 50.1 58.8 27.7 9.1 4.4

High school graduates ........................................ 37.2 – 75.5 20.3 4.2

Some college ..................................................... 54.8 – – 45.6 54.4

College graduates .............................................. 34.5 – – – 100.0

 Women

High school dropouts .......................................... 57.4 57.7 28.8 10.7 2.8

High school graduates ........................................ 47.1 – 68.6 25.6 5.8

Some college ..................................................... 54.5 – – 45.5 54.6

College graduates .............................................. 49.7 – – – 100.0

 White (non-Hispanic)

High school dropouts .......................................... 50.4 56.8 27.5 10.9 4.9

High school graduates ........................................ 42.1 – 71.5 22.6 5.9

Some college ..................................................... 53.4 – – 39.5 60.5

College graduates .............................................. 41.2 – – – 100.0

 Black (non-Hispanic)

High school dropouts .......................................... 61.8 58.6 31.5 8.4 1.5

High school graduates ........................................ 42.3 – 74.3 23.6 2.1

Some college ..................................................... 58.7 – – 71.2 28.8

College graduates .............................................. 26.5 – – – 100.0

 Hispanic or Latino

High school dropouts .......................................... 49.9 67.8 23.3 7.2 1.8

High school graduates ........................................ 39.9 – 73.7 23.8 2.5

College graduates .............................................. 38.6 – – – 100.0

NOTE: Educational attainment is defined as of the time they first left school for 12 consecutive months.

Ever

returned to

 school High school

dropout

 High school

graduates

(or GED)

Some college

Highest degree ever reported receiving

College

graduates

Table 2.
Monthly Labor Review February 2005 25

Duration of employment relationship with a single employer, for longest held job from first time left school to

age 35, by age and educational attainment

Through age 20 .................................................. 10.3 57.4 27.8 4.4 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 14.2 58.1 21.8 6.0 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 9.4 56.4 30.4 4.2 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 12.7 84.1 3.2 (

1

) (

1

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Through age 25 ................................................. 2.2 19.6 28.8 41.3 8.3

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 4.2 28.2 24.5 36.7 6.4

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.7 15.5 24.4 45.4 12.9

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 1.5 18.3 36.2 43.4 .6

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 2.2 37.6 45.0 15.2 (

1

)

Through age 30 .................................................. 1.0 6.2 13.8 44.3 34.6

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 2.2 15.9 18.7 41.9 21.3

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.0 5.7 14.2 42.2 36.9

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .2 3.5 10.6 46.0 39.6

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.7 3.6 12.5 53.7 28.4

Through age 35 .................................................. .7 2.9 6.9 33.1 56.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 1.8 9.1 14.5 39.0 35.7

High school graduates, no college ..................... .6 2.6 7.4 33.7 55.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .1 1.5 3.1 28.8 66.4

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.1 .4 4.1 31.8 62.5

Age and characteristic No job Less than

1 year

 More than

1 year but less

 than 2 years

More than

2 years but less

than 5 years

Duration of longest employment relationship

5 years or

more

Table 3.

1

 Estimates are not presented for these categories because most sample

members had not been out of school long enough to hold a job of this length.

 2 Estimates are not presented because most sample members in this

education category are not yet out of school.

done so. At age 35, 66 percent of those with some college

and 63 percent of those with a college degree had held a

job for 5 years or more.

Women in the labor market. During the last several decades, the “working mother” has become the norm rather

than the exception.10 While women no longer automatically withdraw from the labor force upon marrying or after

having a child, it remains common for women with young

children to interrupt their careers for both childbearing and

childrearing. Women may also choose more intermittent or

seasonal work that correlates with school or other

childrearing activities. It is reasonable to expect that their

work trajectory will be different from men. However, much

of the difference between the school-to-work trajectory of

men and women—at least in the measures presented

here—appears to stem from the variability of work experience in female dropouts.

Table 4 breaks down the duration of longest held employment relationship by sex as well as age. At all ages,

female high school dropouts are significantly more likely

to have never held a job, and held jobs for less time. At age

20, 21 percent of female dropouts had never held a job,

while approximately 13 percent had held a job for between

1 and 2 years. Only 9 percent of male dropouts, in comparison, had never been employed, and 28 percent had held

their longest job between 1 and 2 years. While the difference in employment duration shrinks with age, it never

equalizes. At their 35th birthday, 4 percent of female dropouts had never held a job and only a quarter had held a job

more than 5 years. In comparison, nearly 44 percent of

male dropouts had held a job more than 5 years by age 35,

and almost all had held a job.

The work experiences of dropouts contrasts to the employment histories of those with more education. At age 25,

women with some college or a college degree are more likely

to have held a job since leaving school for the first time, and

were equally and often more likely to have held a job of a

specific duration as similarly educated men. However, differences emerged with age. These differences are probably due

to the fact that some women leave and re-enter the workforce

due to household responsibilities as they age. At age 35,

only 1 percent of male or female college graduates had never

held a job, but 68 percent of the men had held a job for more

than 5 years, compared with 55 percent of the women. Only 3

percent of male college graduates had never held a job for 2 or

more years, compared with 9 percent of women with a college

degree.

Racial differences. Table 5 examines the duration of employment relationships for the longest held job by race and

ethnicity. Compared with similarly educated whites or Hispanics, blacks consistently have less tenure. However,

blacks in particular benefit from increases in education. At
School-to-Work Transition

26 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

Duration of employment relationship with a single employer, for longest held job from first time left school to

age 35—by sex, age, and educational attainment

Men only through age 20 ..................................... 9.8 58.0 28.7 3.5 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 8.7 57.6 28.3 5.4 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 10.1 57.7 29.1 3.1 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Women only through age 20 ................................ 10.9 56.9 27.0 5.3 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 21.2 58.6 13.3 6.8 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 8.7 55.1 31.0 5.2 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 13.3 85.4 1.3 (

1

) (

1

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Men only through age 25 .................................... 1.7 19.4 28.3 42.5 8.1

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 1.1 20.7 24.6 47.0 6.5

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.7 15.1 24.3 46.5 12.5

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 2.0 21.9 35.9 39.7 .4

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 2.4 38.6 41.5 17.4 (

2

)

Women only through age 25 ............................... 2.3 19.9 29.4 40.0 8.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 8.3 38.1 24.4 23.0 6.2

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.8 16.0 24.6 44.3 13.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 1.1 15.2 36.4 46.5 .7

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 2.0 36.3 49.1 12.6 (

2

)

Men through age 30 ............................................ .8 5.0 11.9 45.2 37.1

Less than a high school diploma ....................... .1 11.1 15.7 47.1 25.9

High school graduates, no college ..................... .9 4.0 12.6 42.8 39.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .4 3.4 10.1 45.3 40.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.6 5.1 7.7 53.9 31.7

Women through age 30 ....................................... 1.3 7.5 15.7 43.3 32.1

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 4.9 22.2 22.6 35.1 15.2

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.0 7.5 15.9 41.6 34.0

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .1 3.5 11.0 46.7 38.0

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.9 1.5 18.9 53.6 24.1

Men through age 35 ............................................ .5 2.3 5.0 31.2 60.9

Less than a high school diploma ....................... .1 7.3 10.0 39.0 43.5

High school graduates, no college ..................... .6 1.9 5.8 31.9 59.8

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .1 1.7 2.0 25.0 71.1

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.4 .0 1.1 29.4 68.1

Women through age 35 ....................................... .8 3.5 8.9 35.0 51.7

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 4.0 11.5 20.4 38.9 25.3

High school graduates, no college ..................... .6 3.3 9.1 35.6 51.4

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .1 1.4 4.0 32.0 62.5

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ .7 1.0 8.1 35.1 55.1

Age and characteristic No job

 Less than

1 year

 More than

1 year but less

 than 2 years

More than

2 years but less

than 5 years

Duration of longest employment relationship

5 years or

more

Table 4.

 1 Estimates are not presented for these categories because most

sample members had not been out of school long enough to hold a job

of this length.

 

 2 Estimates are not presented because most sample members in this

education category are not yet out of school.
Monthly Labor Review February 2005 27

Duration of employment relationship with a single employer, for longest held job from first time left school to

age 35—by age, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, and educational attainment

 Through age 20

White (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 6.7 56.9 31.5 4.9 (1)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 10.5 58.3 25.2 6.1 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 6.0 55.5 33.6 4.9 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

Black (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 25.1 58.4 14.3 2.2 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 25.7 56.7 13.2 4.4 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 24.6 58.6 15.1 1.7 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... (

2

) (

2

) (2) (

2

) (

2

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

2

) (

2

) (2) (

2

) (

2

)

Hispanic or Latino .............................................. 12.7 60.9 22.3 4.2 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 16.0 56.0 19.5 8.5 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ..................... 10.9 62.3 24.4 2.4 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... (

2

) (

2

) (2) (

2

) (

2

)

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

3

) (

3

) (3) (

3

) (

3

)

 Through age 25

White (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 1.3 17.6 29.1 43.2 8.8

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 2.3 23.3 26.5 41.7 6.2

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.0 13.4 23.5 47.6 14.4

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 2.3 16.5 37.5 44.6 .4

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 2.4 37.9 43.4 16.2 (2)

Black (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 5.7 27.5 30.2 31.0 5.7

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 11.0 37.8 23.3 21.5 6.5

High school graduates, no college ..................... 4.6 23.6 29.9 34.9 7.0

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 5.2 26.9 33.8 32.3 1.8

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

3

) (

3

) (3) (

3

) (3)

Hispanic or Latino .............................................. 2.2 22.3 24.7 43.6 7.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 3.2 32.5 18.0 38.7 7.7

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.6 19.1 33.0 45.5 9.8

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 2.2 18.2 28.9 50.8 .0

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

3

) (

3

) (3) (

3

) (

3

)

 Through age 30

White (non-Hispanic) ........................................... .5 4.5 13.0 45.2 36.8

Less than a high school diploma ....................... .8 11.5 17.6 47.8 22.2

High school graduates, no college ..................... .4 4.3 13.4 42.4 39.5

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .9 2.6 10.0 46.4 41.0

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.7 3.5 12.9 52.3 29.7

Black (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 3.1 12.7 18.3 40.3 25.6

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 6.5 25.3 23.3 27.0 18.0

High school graduates, no college ..................... 2.8 11.1 19.3 41.5 25.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 1.4 9.3 12.8 44.6 31.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.7 2.2 10.2 55.0 30.9

Hispanic or Latino .............................................. 1.8 9.1 13.5 44.2 31.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 2.5 18.7 15.8 39.6 23.4

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.3 7.6 12.8 43.7 34.5

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 1.2 .4 12.0 47.1 39.3

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

)

 Through age 35

White (non-Hispanic) ........................................... .4 1.9 5.7 32.6 59.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... .6 6.0 13.9 29.7 29.7

High school graduates, no college ..................... .5 2.0 5.8 31.6 60.0

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .5 1.4 2.6 31.3 64.2

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ 1.2 .1 3.8 31.8 62.4

Age and characteristic No job

 Less than

1 year

 More than

1 year but less

 than 2 years

More than

2 years but less

than 5 years

Duration of longest employment relationship

5 years or

more

Table 5.

See notes at end of table.
School-to-Work Transition

28 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

their 20th birthday, 27 percent of black dropouts and 24

percent of blacks with a high school degree had never held

a job. By their 25th birthday, 11 percent of black dropouts

had yet to hold a job, compared with 6 percent of blacks

with a high school degree. By their 35th birthday, 4 percent

of black dropouts had still never held a job, and less than a

quarter had ever held a job for 5 years or more. On the

other hand, less than 2 percent of black high school graduates had never held a job, and 43 percent had held a job for

5 years or longer. Moreover, at age 35 nearly all blacks with

some college or those with college degrees had held jobs,

and approximately 60 percent had held jobs for 5 years or

more.

A second way to use job duration to study the schoolto-work transition is to look at the tenure of all jobs ever

held, not just the longest job. Table 6 presents a measure

of job mobility or churning by averaging the tenure across

all jobs held since first leaving school. At their 25th birthday, 55 percent of the sample changed jobs, on average, at

least once a year, while approximately 7 percent had an

average tenure of 3 years or more. However, even at age

35, nearly a quarter of the sample had average tenure of

less than a year, meaning a nontrivial portion of the sample

continued to have a relatively large number of short-duration jobs as they approached middle age. What is striking

is that at age 35, half of all dropouts have an average tenure

across all jobs that is 1 year or less, while only 10 percent

have average tenure of 3 years or more. While table 3 shows

that the majority of dropouts at some point have held a job

that lasted more than 2 years, table 6 indicates that for most

dropouts, jobs of long duration are accompanied by many

more jobs of short duration.

Again, the differences in the employment histories of

men and women became apparent with age. At age 25, the

average tenure across all jobs for men and women is

roughly the same: 55 percent of men and 56 percent of

women had average tenure less than 1 year, while 6 percent

of men and 7 percent of women had average tenure of more

than 3 years. By age 35, approximately 22 percent of men

had average tenure of less than 1 year, compared with 27

percent of women—and 28 percent of men had average

tenure of more than 3 years, compared with 22 percent of

women. More importantly, this difference holds true for all

education categories. Even female college graduates consistently have less average tenure than similarly educated

men. While 3 percent of college-educated men have average tenure of less than 1 year, 13 percent of college-educated women have the same. Moreover, 47 percent of these

men have average tenure of more than 3 years, compared

with only 30 percent of college-educated women.

Years or jobs until ‘stable employment.’ As already demonstrated, individuals have a great deal of job mobility in

their first years out of school. Brief and intermittent periods of employment are common among many young workers, especially those with low levels of education. The

Continued—Duration of employment relationship with a single employer, for longest held job from first time

left school to age 35—by age, race, Hispanic or Latino ethnicity, and educational attainment

Black (non-Hispanic) ........................................... 1.7 7.1 13.8 34.0 43.4

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 4.6 18.0 18.9 34.7 23.9

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.5 5.5 15.2 35.0 42.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... .0 4.2 7.3 29.4 59.1

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ .0 .0 4.5 37.6 58.0

Hispanic or Latino .............................................. 1.5 4.4 6.7 34.5 52.9

Less than a high school diploma ....................... 2.5 9.6 12.0 39.5 36.4

High school graduates, no college ..................... 1.1 4.1 6.1 33.0 55.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree .......................... 2.0 .4 3.0 31.8 63.2

Bachelor’s degree or more ................................ (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

) (

3

)

Age and characteristic No job

 Less than

1 year

 More than

1 year but less

 than 2 years

More than

2 years but less

than 5 years

Duration of longest employment relationship

5 years or

more

Table 5.

 1 Estimates are not presented for these categories because most

sample members had not been out of school long enough to hold a job of

this length.

 2 Estimates are not presented because most sample members in this

education category are not yet out of school.

 3 Estimates are not presented because cell size is less than 50.
Monthly Labor Review February 2005 29

Percentage of individuals who have average tenure across all jobs less than a specific duration

Total .................................................... 55.3 38.0 6.7 35.4 48.5 16.1 24.2 50.3 25.4

Less than a high school diploma .......... 70.1 25.9 4.0 61.5 31.7 6.8 50.4 40.0 9.7

High school graduates, no college ........ 52.0 39.2 8.8 38.1 46.9 15.1 26.6 50.5 22.9

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 52.2 42.6 5.2 21.7 57.3 21.0 12.9 54.2 32.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... 64.5 35.0 .5 21.4 56.6 22.0 7.2 53.2 39.6

Men ..................................................... 55.1 38.6 6.3 33.7 48.9 17.4 22.0 49.7 28.3

Less than a high school diploma .......... 65.2 30.4 4.4 56.9 35.9 7.2 43.5 45.9 10.5

High school graduates, no college ........ 52.1 40.3 7.7 36.7 48.0 15.3 25.0 50.5 24.6

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 52.2 41.6 6.2 20.0 55.0 25.0 11.2 49.9 38.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... 64.5 34.6 1.0 16.5 57.4 26.0 2.8 50.2 47.0

Women ................................................ 55.6 37.3 7.1 37.2 48.0 14.8 26.5 51.0 22.4

Less than a high school diploma .......... 77.1 19.5 3.4 67.8 26.0 6.2 59.8 31.8 8.5

High school graduates, no college ........ 51.9 38.2 9.9 39.5 45.7 14.8 28.2 50.5 21.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 52.1 43.4 4.5 23.1 59.2 17.6 14.3 57.9 27.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... 64.5 35.5 .0 27.9 55.5 16.6 13.0 57.1 29.9

White (non-Hispanic) .............................. 53.2 40.1 6.7 32.6 49.7 17.7 21.5 50.8 27.8

Less than a high school diploma .......... 68.4 28.6 3.0 58.3 34.8 6.9 46.6 42.7 10.7

High school graduates, no college ........ 49.1 41.6 9.3 35.8 47.4 16.8 24.0 50.9 25.2

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 51.8 43.7 4.5 20.0 58.4 21.6 12.2 53.6 34.3

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... 64.2 35.3 .6 21.0 56.0 22.9 7.4 51.9 40.7

Black (non-Hispanic) .............................. 65.4 28.0 6.5 47.4 41.9 10.7 36.3 47.3 16.4

Less than a high school diploma .......... 74.2 19.3 6.5 68.6 23.7 7.7 59.3 32.0 8.7

High school graduates, no college ........ 64.5 29.0 6.5 49.2 42.2 8.7 38.5 47.3 14.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 59.7 32.5 7.8 30.7 52.6 16.7 17.6 57.7 24.7

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) 22.6 57.2 20.2 9.1 57.7 33.2

Hispanic or Latino ................................. 57.4 34.6 8.0 40.9 49.0 11.2 27.8 52.5 19.7

Less than a high school diploma .......... 70.1 24.4 5.5 64.0 30.9 5.1 51.9 41.5 6.6

High school graduates, no college ........ 56.4 35.3 8.3 38.7 51.5 9.7 26.5 54.8 18.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree ............. 39.9 48.2 11.9 20.0 58.0 22.0 9.1 53.4 37.5

Bachelor’s degree or more ................... (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

) (

1

)

 

 1 Estimates are not presented because cell size is less than 50.

Characteristic

 1 year or

 less

More than

1 year

but less

than

3 years

More than

1 year

but less

than

3 years

Percent of people with average tenure length of:

3 years or

more

Table 6.

 To 25th birthday To 30th birthday To 35th birthday

1 year or

less

3 years or

more

1 year or

more

More than

1 year

but less

than

3 years

3 years or

more

question remains: how long does it take for young workers to find stable employment or a longer-term employment

relationship?

Table 7 presents the median number of years from first

leaving school until a worker holds a job for either 1, 3, or 5

years. Comparing the four school-leaving groups, it is apparent that the transition from school to work was quicker as

education increased. For example, the median high school

dropout took more than 3 years to start a job that would last

a full year, and nearly 11years before they started a job that

would last 3 years. Because less than 50 percent of the high

school dropout sample had yet to hold a job for 5 years at age

35, we cannot determine the median number of years. In comparison, the median high school graduate took 6 years to

start a job that would last 3 years and 10 years to start one

lasting 5 years. Those with a college degree settled into stable

employment much more quickly; within a year and a half they

started a job that would last 3 years—and less than 4 years to

start a job that would last 5 years.

In other words, the median high school dropout started a

job that would last 3 years at age 29; the median high school

graduate, at age 24; and the median college graduate, age 26.

In addition, the median high school dropout had yet to hold a

job lasting 5 years by age 35, while a high school graduate

started one at age 28. A college graduate started a job lasting

5 years at age 27. It appears that high school graduates are

able to use the general skills gained in high school to obtain

additional on-the-job skills. While this article does not analyze

the wage potential of jobs and cannot determine if the career

paths are similar, the median high school graduate started jobs

of a significant duration—5 years—at approximately the same

age as the median college graduate.
School-to-Work Transition

30 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

 Female dropouts took longer to find stable employment

than male dropouts. It took the median female dropout approximately twice as long to hold jobs lasting 1 or 3 years

than male dropouts; 5.9 years versus 2.3 years before starting

a job that would last 1 year; and 14.9 years versus 7.6 years

before starting a job that would last 3 years. While women

with a college education started a job that lasted at least 1

year at the same time as similarly educated men, it took them

significantly longer to start a job that lasted 5 years (5.4 years

versus 2.3 years).

Compared with whites and Hispanics or Latinos, blacks

fared poorly in the labor market. At their 35th birthday, more

than 50 percent of both black high school dropouts and graduates had never held a job for 5 years or more, and more than 50

percent of black dropouts had never held a job lasting at least

3 years. It took white dropouts nearly 9 years to start a job

that would last 3 years, while Hispanic or Latino dropouts

took more than 10 years. In comparison, white college graduates started a job that would last 3 years approximately 1 year

Median number of years between leaving school for the first time and starting a job that lasts a set amount of

time, to age 35, 1978–2002

Total ........................................................................................ .9 4.6 9.2

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 3.3 10.8 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1.3 5.8 10.1

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .5 2.7 5.0

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... .2 1.3 3.5

Men ......................................................................................... .8 4.1 8.0

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 2.3 7.6 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1.2 5.4 9.1

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .4 2.5 4.1

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... .1 1.0 2.3

Women ..................................................................................... 1.0 5.3 10.9

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 5.9 14.9 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1.3 6.4 11.7

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .5 3.0 5.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... .2 2.5 5.4

White (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. .8 4.1 8.1

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 2.9 8.7 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1.0 5.3 9.2

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .4 2.6 4.7

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... .1 1.3 3.3

Black (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. 2.3 8.0 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 6.2 (

1

) (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 3.1 9.1 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .9 3.8 6.5

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... .3 1.9 3.2

Hispanic or Latino ..................................................................... 1.5 5.7 10.5

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 4.0 10.5 (1)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1.8 6.2 10.3

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. .2 .2 4.9

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

 Characteristic

Table 7.

Median number of years between leaving school for the first

time and starting a job that will last at least:

1 year 3 years 5 years or more

 1 Estimates are not presented because less than 50 percent of the

sample had held a job of this length.

 2 Estimates are not presented because cell size is less than 50.

after leaving school; blacks with a college degree took approximately 1 extra year—but started a job lasting at least 3

years the same time as whites did.

Similar patterns existed for the median number of jobs held

from time first left school until workers settled into stable employment. (See table 8.) In all cases, measuring number of

jobs held from first leaving school until starting a job that

lasted 1, 3, or 5 years, college graduates made the transition to

stable employment with the least amount of churning or job

shopping. A high school dropout, on the other hand, seems

to do a fair amount of churning. The median high school

dropout held two jobs before starting a job that lasted 1 year

and held five jobs before starting a job that lasted 3 years. A

high school graduate, in comparison, held one job before holding a job for 1 year and five jobs before holding a job for 5

years. Finally, those with a college degree or more found a

long-lasting job with relatively little job shopping or churning.

College graduates held only two jobs before starting a job that

lasted 5 years or more.
Monthly Labor Review February 2005 31

IT TAKES APPROXIMATELY 5 YEARS after leaving school for the first

time before the average worker starts a job that will last 3 years.

However, college graduates found stable, long-term employment

almost immediately, while high school dropouts continued to

have many short-term jobs 15 years after leaving school. By age

35, more than 62 percent of college graduates had held a job for

more than 5 years; at the median, this group had started their

career job less than 4 years after leaving school. In contrast,

most high school dropouts took many years to overcome their

Median number of jobs held between leaving school for the first time and starting a job that will last a set

amount of time, to age 35, 1978–2002

Total ........................................................................................ 1 3 5

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 2 5 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1 4 5

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 1 2 3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 0 1 2

Men ......................................................................................... 1 3 4

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 2 5 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1 4 5

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 1 2 3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 0 1 2

Women ..................................................................................... 1 4 5

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 3 6 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1 4 5

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 1 3 4

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 0 2 3

White (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. 1 3 4

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 3 6 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 1 4 5

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 1 2 3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 0 1 2

Black (non-Hispanic) .................................................................. 2 4 (

1

)

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 2 (

1

) (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 2 4 (

1

)

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 1 3 3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... 1 2 2

Hispanic ................................................................................... 1 4 5

Less than a high school diploma .............................................. 3 5 (

1

)

High school graduates, no college ............................................ 2 4 5

Less than a bachelor’s degree ................................................. 0 2 3

Bachelor’s degree or more ....................................................... (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

 Characteristic

Table 8.

Median number of jobs held between leaving school for the first

time and starting a job that will last at least:

1 year 3 years 5 years or more

 1 Estimates are not presented because less than 50 percent of the

sample had held a job of this length.

2

 Estimates are not presented because cell size is less than 50.

lack of skills: at age 35, only 36 percent of them had held a job for

more than 5 years, and more than 50 percent had an average

tenure of 1 year or less. The data also show significant differences by sex and race in the work experiences of individuals

between the end of schooling and age 35. While many of the

racial differences become insignificant with increases in education, the disparity between men and women often remain. Across

both genders and all races, increases in education smooth the

transition from school to work.

Notes

1

 See, for example, Report by the Commission on the skills of the

American Workforce, 1990.

2

 See, for example, Robert H. Topel and Michael P. Ward, “Job

Mobility and the Careers of Young Men,” The Quarterly Journal of

Economics, May 1992, pp. 439–479; Boyan Jovanovic, “Job Matching and the Theory of Turnover,” Journal of Political Economy, May

1979, pp. 972–990; William R. Johnson, “The Theory of Job Shopping,” The Quarterly Journal of Economics, May 1978, pp. 261–278.

3

 Jacob Alex Klerman and Lynn A. Karoly, “Young Men and the

Transition to Stable Employment,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1994,
School-to-Work Transition

32 Monthly Labor Review February 2005

pp. 31–48; Jonathan R. Veum and Andrea B. Weiss, “Education and the

Work Histories of Young Adults,” Monthly Labor Review, April 1994,

pp. 11–20.

4

 Rosella Gareecki and David B. Neumark, “Order from Chaos? The

Effects of Early Labor Market Experiences on Adult Labor Market

Outcomes,” Industrial and Labor Relations Review, January 1998, pp.

299–322; and Audry Light, Kathleen McGarry, “Job Change Patterns

and the Wages of Young Men,” The Review of Economics and Statistics,

May 1998, pp. 276–286.

5

 If we do not restrict the sample to these birth cohorts, only individuals who had not exited school before 1978 would be included in the

1957 to 1960 sample. As a result, the sample including all cohorts

would have a much higher percentage of college graduates and a lower

percentage of high school dropouts.

6

 An individual must be out of school for 12 consecutive months

before their education status is determined. However, once that 12-

month period has been reached, jobs and duration are measured retroactively from the beginning of the 12 months, that is, from the very first

week they left school.

7

 To account for individuals who initially overstate their educational

attainment, the highest degrees are compared to questions, asked in

1998 and afterwards, of highest degree ever earned and the date these

degrees were obtained. Approximately 100 individuals were reassigned

to lower categories based on their answers to this question.

8

 Approximately 3 percent of the sample was still attending school

at their 35th birthday. However, much of this schooling appears to be

a use of leisure time as compared to the pursuit of a degree. These

individuals are characterized by intermittent school attendance, taking

only a few credits, and never completing any additional degree.

9

 All comparisons are statistically significant.

10 According to the Current Population Survey (CPS) at the Bureau of

Labor Statistics, 64 percent of women with children under age 6 were in

the civilian labor force in 2003, as were 72 percent of women with

children under age 18.