74 Monthly Labor Review March 1998

The proportion of workers who hold

contingent jobs—that is, any job that the

worker does not expect to last—declined

slightly between February 1995 and February 1997. (See table.) While the Current Population Survey (CPS) supplements used to create these estimates were

intended to identify contingent workers—those who do not have an implicit

or explicit contract for ongoing employment—the questions are also a useful

approach to measuring a general sense

of job security.

The broad definition of contingent

worker used here includes those with an

explicitly temporary job and anyone who

does not think they could continue to

work for their employer for as long as

they wish, even assuming their performance is adequate and that economic

conditions stay the same.

The specific questions asked of wage

and salary workers1 were:

1. Some people are in temporary jobs that

only last for a limited time or until the

completion of a project. Is your job

temporary?

2. Provided the economy does not change

and your job performance is adequate,

can you continue to work for your current employer as long as you wish?

Taken in another light, these questions

can be used to measure the worker’s sense

of job security. In that context, the slight

decline in the contingency rate could

suggest that job security had increased

somewhat in the 2-year period. Whether

that conclusion is sound would depend on

whether the decline in contingency or

“insecurity” is consistent with other data

from the survey, is broadly spread among

demographic and economic groups, and

is supported by other measures of job

security.

From within the supplement, data on

the reasons for contingent work arrangements provide support for the increasing job security idea. In 1995, 34.7 percent of contingent workers cited economic factors as the reason they were in

a contingent work arrangement. The

biggest single reason, cited by nearly a

quarter of all contingent workers, was

that they “could only find this type of

employment.” In February 1997, fewer

than one-fifth of contingent workers

were in “the only type of work [they]

could find.” While the absolute number

of workers taking contingent jobs for

economic reasons was declining, the

number and share citing reasons such as

family obligations, flexibility of schedule, and being in school were rising. In

1995, 41 percent of contingent workers

reported such personal reasons for accepting such arrangements. By 1997,

more than 48 percent of contingent

workers cited personal reasons. These

comparisons indicate that contingency

was somewhat more likely to be voluntary in 1997.

The decline in contingency was fairly

widespread. Contingency rates for men

and women each declined by half a percentage point, in line with the fall in the

total. Among the major race and ethnic

groups, however, the entire decline appeared to have occurred among black

workers. Their contingency rate fell by

a full percentage point, while rates

among white and Hispanic workers were

virtually unchanged. Among the nine

major occupational groups, contingency

rates fell in six, rose in two, and was unchanged in one. Among the ten major

industry divisions, contingency fell in

five, rose in three, and was little changed

in two. In general, the fall in “insecurity” was widespread among industries

and occupations and evenly spread

among men and women.

Analysts have used statistics on tenure

with one’s current employer and data on

displacement to analyze employment security. The most recent report on tenure

found that the overall median tenure had

risen a bit by the mid-1990s, but the rise

was very uneven across gender lines.

At Issue . . .

“At Issue” was prepared by Richard M. Devens,

Jr, of the Office of Publications, Bureau of Labor

Statistics

Percent

Total Men Women White Black Hispanic

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995

1997

Share of workers who feel their jobs are not secure has declined slightly 

Percent

Contingent workers as a share of employed, by sex, race, and Hispanic

origin, 1995 and 1997

Gains in job security
 Monthly Labor Review March 1998 75

Among men, median tenure fell between

1983 and 1996 in nearly every age group.

The median among all men remained flat

at about 4.0 years, however, as the age distribution of employed men shifted to older

age groups in which workers have longer

tenure. Median tenure for women had

changed little from 1983 to 1991, but

edged up to 3.5 years in 1996.

Taken together, these observations suggest that men could feel slightly less secure while women could feel a bit more

secure. The latter observation provides

some support for interpreting the contingent worker data as suggesting increasing

employment stability, but the former does

not. Tenure data, however, must be analyzed carefully in studies of job or employment security. For example, in periods of

strong economic growth, median tenure

could fall because more job opportunities

are available for new entrants to the labor

force and experienced workers have better opportunities to take better jobs with

new employers. In any case, these comparisons are from a time frame that only

partially overlaps that of the contingent

worker data.

Worker displacement in the mid1990s was at a lower level than had been

the case earlier in the decade. A total of

2.4 million workers were displaced between 1993 and 1994 from jobs that they

had held for at least 3 years. By comparison, about 2.8 million long-tenured

workers were displaced in 1991–92. The

displacement rates for these two periods

were 3.2 percent for 1993–94 and 3.9

percent for 1991–92. This decline could

be interpreted as indicating some degree

of improved job security as of 1993–94.

Also, a slight increase in the re-employment rate among displace workers from

Contingency rates by occupation and industry, February of 1995 and 1997

(In percent)

 Occupation/industry 1995 1997

Total ....................................................................... 4.9 4.4

 Occupation

Executive, administrative, and managerial..................... 2.7 2.2

Professional specialty .................................................... 6.8 6.1

Technicians and related support .................................... 4.2 4.8

Sales occupations .......................................................... 2.6 2.1

Administrative support, including clerical ....................... 5.8 5.9

Services ......................................................................... 5.8 5.0

Precision production, craft, and repair ........................... 4.6 4.2

Operators, fabricators and laborers ............................... 5.4 4.4

Farming, forestry, and fishing ......................................... 5.6 5.9

 Industry

Agriculture ...................................................................... 5.0 5.3

Mining ............................................................................ 2.7 3.6

Construction ................................................................... 8.4 7.1

Manufacturing ................................................................ 3.1 2.2

Transportation and public utilities ................................... 3.0 2.6

Wholesale trade ............................................................. 2.3 2.1

Retail trade ..................................................................... 3.0 2.5

Finance, insurance, and real estate ............................... 2.0 2.1

Services ......................................................................... 7.5 6.7

Public administration ...................................................... 3.6 4.2

75 to 79 percent, may indicate a modest

rise in employment security as well.

These data also conform to a general tendency of displacement to rise and fall

roughly in step with unemployment.

While displacement data are not yet

available for the period covered by the

contingency supplements, note that jobless rates in the first quarters of 1995

and 1997 were 5.5 and 5.3 percent, respectively.

The contingent worker supplements

to the CPS can be used to obtain useful

insights on workers’ perceptions of employment security. Despite concerns

about the nature of job security in today’s

economy, the impression of increasing

job security the most recent contingency

data point to seems to be born out by

most of the complementary data examined. Rising security is consistent with

data on reasons for contingent work from

within the supplement itself and is widespread among sex, occupation, and industry groups. A sense of rising security among women is supported by displaced worker data and one common

interpretation of the tenure data. Among

men, a similar sense is supported by the

displaced worker data, but somewhat at

odds with the tenure data. A sense rising security is also consistent with the

low unemployment rate in 1997. 

Footnote

1

 Self-employed workers and independent contractors were asked a separate set of questions and

were classified as contingent if they had been

working under that arrangement for a year or less

and expected to remain in that arrangement for a

year or less.