30  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

Labor Force

Labor force projections to 2018:

older workers staying more active

As the baby-boom generation ages, the share of workers in the 55-yearsand-older age group will increase dramatically; the participation rates of 

older workers in the labor force are expected to increase, but will remain 

significantly lower than those for the prime age group, and, as a result, 

the participation rate and overall labor force growth rate will decline

Mitra Toossi

Mitra Toossi is an economist

in the Office of Occupational 

Statistics and Employment

Projections, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics.

E-mail:Toossi.Mitra@bls.gov

Employment outlook: 2008–18

The U.S. labor force is undergoing 

a gradual but significant change. 

Beginning in the latter part of the 

20th century, three major demographic 

trends—slowing growth, aging, and increasing diversity—led to changes that 

have had a considerable impact on the profile of the labor force in the United States 

and are projected to affect the workforce 

in the foreseeable future.

Slowdown in the growth of the labor force.

The high growth rate of the labor force 

from the 1970s to the 1990s has been 

replaced by a much slower growth since 

2000. The slow growth rate of the labor 

force is expected to continue over the next 

decade.

Aging of the labor force. With the aging 

of the baby-boom generation, defined as 

persons born between 1946 and 1964, the 

older age cohorts are expected to make up 

a much larger share of the labor force. In 

2008, the baby-boom cohort was 44 to 62 

years of age. By 2018, almost all the baby 

boomers will be in the 55-years-and-older 

age group. Age is a major factor in labor 

market behavior, and the aging of the labor 

force will dramatically lower the overall labor 

force participation rate and the growth of the 

labor force.

Changes in the racial and ethnic composition of 

the labor force. As a result of higher population 

growth—stemming from an increased number 

of births and increased immigration—and high 

labor force participation rates by Hispanics 

and Asians, the share of the workforce held by 

minorities is expected to increase significantly.

In addition to exploring these trends, this 

article describes the labor force projections by 

the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) for the 

2008–18 timeframe, for 136 demographic 

groups broken down by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. The dynamic factors that have led 

to changes in the composition of the workforce 

resulting from persons entering, leaving, or 

staying in the labor force also are highlighted. 

Finally, the article discusses the median age of 

the labor force for the different groups, along 

with the economic dependency ratio in the labor force.1

The U.S. labor force is projected to increase 

by 12.6 million over the 2008–18 period, 

reaching nearly 167 million in 2018.2 (See 

Data in table 7 (page 50) were corrected online December 29, 2010. See Errata online at www.bls.gov/opub/

mlr/2010/12/errata.pdf.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

chart 1.) During each of the last two decades (1988 to 

1998 and 1998 to 2008) the labor force grew by more than 

16 million. The projected 8.2-percentage-point increase is 

less than both the 12.1-percentage-point increase over the 

previous decade and the 13.2-percentage-point growth 

over the 1988–98 timeframe. The BLS projects that nearly 

12 million of the 12.6 million additional workers in the 

labor force over the next 10 years will be in the 55-andolder age group. This group is expected to be nearly 

40 million in 2018, an increase of 43 percentage points. 

As a result, this age cohort will compose nearly a quarter 

of the labor force in 2018. (See table 1.)

The prime age group, composed of 25- to 54-year-olds, 

is projected to increase by 1.6 million and make up 63.5 

percent of the total labor force in the target year. The youth 

labor force, composed of 16- to 24-year-olds, is expected 

to decline from the 2008 level, but will remain over 21 

million in 2018. The share of youths in the overall labor 

force is estimated to be 12.7 percent in 2018, roughly half 

of that for the older age group.

The annual rate of growth for women in the labor force 

is expected to slow to 0.9 percent over the 2008–18 timeframe, still a faster growth rate than that of men. As a 

result, women are projected to increase their share of the 

labor force slightly from 46.5 percent in 2008 to 46.9 percent in 2018. The number of men in the labor force is 

projected to grow by an annual rate of 0.7 percent during 

2008–18, a much slower rate than the 1.1-percent rate 

during the 1998–2008 period.

With an anticipated increase in the number of immigrants, the U.S. population is expected to increase its 

size and composition. As a result of different fertility rates 

and major differences in their immigration patterns, the 

various race and ethnic groups are projected to continue 

to show different trends in population and labor force 

growth. The Hispanic labor force is expected to increase 

rapidly. By 2018, Hispanics are expected to reach more 

than 29 million in number, composing 17.6 percent of the 

labor force as a result of an annual growth rate of 2.9 percent over the projected timeframe. Although the share of 

Asians in both the population and labor force is relatively 

small, the number of Asians has been growing rapidly in 

the past two decades. The BLS projects that Asians will 

grow at an annual rate of 2.6 percent, reaching more than 

9 million workers by 2018. The black labor force is projected to continue to have a steady growth of 1.3 percent 

over the next decade and is anticipated to surpass 20 million in 2018.

 Chart 1. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Millions

1988 1998 2008 2018

Civilian Noninstitutional Population Labor force

275

250

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

275

250

225

200

175

150

125

100

75

50

25

0

Millions
Labor Force

32  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

The labor force projections are a product of two factors: population growth and participation rate changes. 

The Census Bureau provides projections of population by 

age, sex, race, and ethnicity, while the BLS develops future 

trends of the labor force participation rates for various age, 

sex, race, and ethnic groups. The next two sections discuss 

these two components in turn.

Population

In the past century, a number of unique birth patterns 

have substantially affected the future size and composition of the U.S. population and labor force. These influential birth patterns are 

•	 the birth dearth cohorts, born in the late 

1920s and early 1930s

•	 the baby-boom generation, born between

1946 and 1964

•	 the baby bust cohort, born between 1965

and 1975

•	 the baby-boom echo, also known as

Generation Y or the millennial generation, 

born between 1976 and 2001.3

In addition to birth patterns, immigration patterns afTable 1. Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Level

1998–

2008

1988–

98

2008 2008–

18

1988 1998

Change

Total, 16

 years and 

 older ............ 121,669 137,673 154,287 166,911 16,004 16,614 12,624 13.2 12.1 8.2 100.0 100.0 

Age, years

16 to 24....... 22,536 21,894 22,032 21,131 –642 138 –901 -2.8 .6 –4.1 18.5 15.

25 to 54....... 84,041 98,718 104,396 105,944 14,677 5,678 1,548 17.5 5.8 1.5 69.1 71

55 and

 older.......... 15,092 17,061 27,857 39,836 1,969 10,796 11,979 13.0 63.3 43.0 12.4 12.4

Sex:

 Men............... 66,927 73,959 82,520 88,682 7,032 8,561 6,162 10.5 11.6 7.5 55.0 53.

Women........ 54,742 63,714 71,767 78,229 8,972 8,053 6,462 16.4 12.6 9.0 45.0 46.

Race: ............... 

 White............ 104,756 115,415 125,635 132,490 10,659 10,220 6,855 10.2 8.9 5.5 86.1 83

 Black.............. 13,205 15,982 17,740 20,244 2,777 1,758 2,504 21.0 11.0 14.1 10.9 11.6

 Asian............. 3,718 6,278 7,202 9,345 2,560 924 2,143 68.9 14.7 29.8 3.1 4

 All other 

groups1...... – – 3,710 4,832 – – 1,122 – – 30.2 – – 2.4 2

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic 

origin.......... 8,982 14,317 22,024 29,304 5,335 7,707 7,280 59.4 53.8 33.1 7.4 10.4

 Other than 

 Hispanic 

origin.......... 112,687 123,356 132,263 137,607 10,669 8,907 5,344 9.5 7.2 4.0 92.6 8

 White non-

 Hispanic 96,141 101,767 105,210 106,834 5,626 3,443 1,624 5.9 3.4 1.5 79.0 7

Age of baby

boomers.... 24 to 42 34 to 52 44 to 62 54 to 72 – – – – – – – – – –

1988–

98

Percent distribution

1998–

2008

2008–

18 2008

[Numbers in thousands]

1998–

2008

2008–

18 2018

Percent

change

1988–

98

1988 1998 2018

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1 The“all other groups”category includes(1) those classified as being of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. Dash

indicates no data collected for category. Details may not sum to totals because of roundin

Group
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

fect the growth and composition of the U.S. population 

and labor force.

The BLS labor force projections are based on Census 

Bureau projections of the resident population of the United 

States. These projections in turn are based on alternative 

assumptions having to do with the three factors that affect population growth: fertility, life expectancy, and net 

international migration. The BLS uses the Census Bureau’s 

published “middle series” population projections, based on 

the mid-level assumption for each of the preceding factors. 

The “middle series” population projections are considered 

the most likely path of future population change. The most 

recent of the resident population projections were provided 

to the BLS in November 2008.

4

The BLS converts the resident population concept of 

the Census Bureau population projections to the civilian noninstitutional population concept of the Current 

Population Survey (CPS). The conversion takes place in 

four steps. First, the population of children under age 16 is 

subtracted from the total resident population. Second, the 

population of the Armed Forces, broken down into different age, sex, race, and ethnic categories, is subtracted. 

Third, the institutional population is subtracted from the 

civilian population for all the different categories. 5 Finally, 

the Census Bureau’s long-term population projections are 

benchmarked to CPS data.6 

Of the three factors affecting population growth, immigration is of paramount importance to the future size and 

composition of the U.S. population. Immigration, however, 

is the greatest uncertainty in population projections. A significant number of immigrants to the United States, both 

legal and illegal, are of Hispanic ethnicity. According to 

the Census Bureau’s most recent projections, net immigration to the United States is projected to add 1.5 million 

persons annually to the U.S. resident population. This is a 

sharp increase over the roughly 800,000 immigrants per 

year projected by the Census Bureau’s previous long-term 

projections of the resident population. As the projected 

number of immigrants to the United States nearly doubles, 

a substantial change will occur in both the size and composition of the population. 

Table 2 provides four snapshots of the civilian 

noninstitutional population at 10-year intervals over the 

1988–2008 period and as projected over the 2008–18 

period. The civilian noninstitutional population is expected 

to continue to increase by an annual rate of 1.0 percent 

over the 2008–18 period. This projected rate of growth 

is slower than that of the 1998–2008 period, when it was 

1.3 percent. 

The share of youths in the population peaked in 1976 

at 22.9 percent. The group’s share dropped to 17.9 percent 

in 1988 and to 16.2 percent in 1998. In 2008, the share of 

youths in the civilian noninstitutional population declined 

to 16.0 percent. The BLS projects that their share will 

further decrease to 15 percent of the total civilian noninstitutional population in 2018, continuing a declining 

trend. (See chart 2.) The number of youths is anticipated 

to increase by 1.3 million, reaching 38.8 million in 2018. 

The 25-to-54-year-old group is expected to increase by 

2.8 million over the 2008–18 period, considerably less 

than both the 16.1 million figure the group posted during 

the 1988–98 period and the 8.2 million it registered over 

the 1998–2008 timeframe. The 55-and-older age group 

increased by 4.3 million from 1988 to 1998 and then by 

more than 16 million—four times that amount—in the 

1998–2008 period. During the 2008–18 timeframe, the 

civilian noninstitutional population aged 55 years and 

older is projected to increase by nearly 21 million, to reach 

a total of 91.6 million. The older group’s share of the civilian noninstitutional population in 2018 is expected to be 

35.4 percent, an increase from 26.6 percent in 1998 and 

30.2 percent in 2008.

In addition to its role in affecting the size of the population, immigration also influences the composition of 

the population by age distribution. For example, persons 

age 25 to 34 years numbered 38.8 million in 1998 and 

40.0 million in 2008. The only way this cohort could have 

increased by that much is through net immigration. Because the main reason for immigration is the opportunity 

to work, the composition of the population and the labor 

force at younger age groups are most affected by immigration.

As a result of more immigrants entering the country 

and their significantly higher fertility rates, the rapid diversification of the population is projected to continue. 

Immigration of different race and ethnic groups to the 

United States changes the racial and ethnic composition 

of the U.S. population over time. Although growth rates of 

Hispanics and Asians are expected to be lower than they 

were in previous decades, the projected growth rates for 

these two groups are nevertheless much higher than for 

the other groups. Hispanics and Asians are projected to 

have about 3.0 percent annual growth over the 2008–18 

timeframe. Blacks are expected to experience an annual 

growth rate of 1.4 percent, greater than the growth rate 

of the overall labor force. By contrast, the white non-Hispanic group is projected to grow more slowly, at a rate of 

0.3 percent.
Labor Force

34  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

Labor force participation rates

Because some Government agencies adopt different 

assumptions in projecting the overall labor force 

participation, their projections often differ. However, 

there is a general consensus that the overall participation 

rate will be inching downward for the foreseeable 

future.7 This trend is primarily a result of the baby-boom 

generation’s entry into the 55-and-older age group.

8

As the historical trends in table 3 indicate, the labor 

force participation rate of youths aged 16 to 24 years 

has decreased significantly since 1988. The major factor 

in this continual decrease has been an increase in school 

attendance at all levels, especially secondary school and 

college. This decreasing trend in participation among 

youths is projected to continue in the future. The prime 

age group also has experienced declining participation 

rates—since 2000—from a period of relatively flat 

participation in the 1990s. This group’s declining trend in 

participation is projected to continue into the future.

The older age group is the only group that has 

significantly increased its labor force participation rate 

in 2008 and that is projected to exhibit further increases 

in the future. As previous literature on this subject has 

noted, a number of factors are responsible for the increase 

in the participation rates of older workers since the late 

1980s. First, people are living longer and healthier lives, 

so older people are working more years to earn additional 

income. In addition, the high cost of health insurance has 

forced many older workers to remain in the labor force 

in order to keep their employer-based health insurance 

or to return to work in order to obtain health insurance 

through their employer.

9

In addition, changes in Social Security laws since 2000 

have raised the normal retirement age for certain birth 

dates and decreased the benefits for early retirement. The 

modified laws were intended to discourage workers from 

early retirement and encourage increased participation 

of older workers in the labor market. The changes also 

established credits for delayed retirements, and that has 

encouraged older workers to delay their retirement and 

benefit from higher income for each additional year of 

work. 

The changing structure of pension plans from defined 

benefit to defined contribution has affected the activity 

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

 Chart 2. Percentage of 16- to 24-year-olds in the total civilian noninstitutional population, 1948–2008

24

22

20

18

16

14

12

1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008

Percent Percent
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

Table 2. Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Group

1988

Level

1998 1988–

98

2008 2018 1998–

2008

1988–

98

Change

 

Total, 16 years

 and older................ 184,613 205,220 233,788 258,906 20,607 28,568 25,118 1.1 1.3 1.0 100.0 1

16 to 24................... 32,960 33,237 37,484 38,768 277 4,247 1,284 .1 1.2 .3 17.9 

16 to 19 ................ 14,527 15,644 17,075 17,358 1,117 1,431 283 .7 .9 .2 7

20 to 24 ................ 18,434 17,593 20,409 21,409 –841 2,816 1,000 –.5 1.5 .5 10

25 to 54................... 101,398 117,450 125,652 128,492 16,052 8,202 2,840 1.5 .7 .2 54.9 

25 to 34 ................ 42,611 38,778 39,993 44,685 –3,833 1,215 4,692 –.9 .3 1.1 23.1 

35 to 44 ................ 34,784 44,299 41,699 41,791 9,515 –2,600 92 2.4 –.6 .0 18.8 

45 to 54 ................ 24,004 34,373 43,960 42,017 10,369 9,587 -1,943 3.7 2.5 –.5 13.0 

55 and older.......... 50,253 54,533 70,652 91,646 4,280 16,119 20,994 .8 2.6 2.6 27.2 

55 to 64 ................ 21,641 22,296 33,491 42,192 655 11,195 8,701 .3 4.2 2.3 11.7 

65 to 74 ................ 17,515 17,947 19,881 29,668 432 1,934 9,787 .2 1.0 4.1 9.

75 and older....... 11,097 14,290 17,281 19,786 3,193 2,991 2,505 2.6 1.9 1.4 6

Men, 16 years

 and older................ 87,857 98,758 113,113 125,695 10,901 14,355 12,582 1.2 1.4 1.1 47.6 

16 to 24................... 16,233 16,772 18,909 19,515 539 2,137 606 .3 1.2 .3 8

16 to 19 ................ 7,304 7,968 8,660 8,795 664 692 135 .9 .8 .2 4

20 to 24 ................ 8,931 8,804 10,249 10,720 –127 1,445 471 –.1 1.5 .5 4

25 to 54................... 49,570 57,724 62,078 63,733 8,154 4,354 1,655 1.5 .7 .3 26.9 

25 to 34 ................ 20,937 19,094 19,999 22,258 –1,843 905 2,259 –.9 .5 1.1 11

35 to 44 ................ 17,008 21,857 20,567 20,766 4,849 –1,290 199 2.5 –.6 .1 9.

45 to 54 ................ 11,625 16,773 21,512 20,709 5,148 4,739 –803 3.7 2.5 –.4 6

55 and older.......... 22,052 24,262 32,125 42,447 2,210 7,863 10,322 1.0 2.8 2.8 11.9 

55 to 64 ................ 10,193 10,649 16,123 20,325 456 5,474 4,202 .4 4.2 2.3 5

65 to 74 ................ 7,773 8,074 9,158 13,825 301 1,084 4,667 .4 1.3 4.2 4

75 and older....... 4,086 5,539 6,844 8,297 1,453 1,305 1,453 3.1 2.1 1.9 2

Women, 16 years

 and older................ 96,756 106,462 120,675 133,210 9,706 14,213 12,535 1.0 1.3 1.0 

16 to 24................... 16,727 16,466 18,575 19,252 –261 2,109 677 –.2 1.2 

16 to 19 ................ 7,224 7,676 8,415 8,563 452 739 148 .6 .9 

20 to 24 ................ 9,503 8,790 10,160 10,689 –713 1,370 529 –.8 1.5 

25 to 54................... 51,828 59,725 63,574 64,759 7,897 3,849 1,185 1.4 .6 .2 

 25 to 34 ................ 21,674 19,683 19,994 22,426 –1,991 311 2,432 –1.0 .2 1.

35 to 44 ................ 17,776 22,442 21,132 21,024 4,666 –1,310 –108 2.4 –.6 –.

45 to 54 ................ 12,378 17,600 22,448 21,308 5,222 4,848 –1,140 3.6 2.5 –

55 and older.......... 28,201 30,271 38,527 49,199 2,070 8,256 10,672 .7 2.4 2.5 15.3 

55 to 64 ................ 11,448 11,646 17,367 21,868 198 5,721 4,501 .2 4.1 2.3 6

65 to 74 ................ 9,742 9,873 10,723 15,842 131 850 5,119 .1 0.8 4

75 and older....... 7,010 8,752 10,437 11,489 1,742 1,685 1,052 2.2 1.8 1

White, 16 years

 and older ............... 158,194 171,178 189,540 205,278 12,984 18,362 15,738 .8 1.0 .8 

 Men........................ 75,855 83,352 92,725 100,948 7,497 9,373 8,223 .9 1.1 .9 

Women................. 82,340 88,126 96,814 104,331 5,786 8,688 7,517 .7 .9 .8 

Black, 16 years

1988

Annual growth 

rate (percent) 

1998 2008 2008–

18

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1998–

2008

2008–

18

2018

 and older................ 20,692 24,373 27,843 31,991 3,681 3,470 4,148 1.7 1.3 1.4 

 Men........................ 9,289 10,927 12,516 14,576 1,638 1,589 2,060 1.6 1.4 1

Women................. 11,402 13,446 15,328 17,415 2,044 1,882 2,087 1.7 1.3 1

Asian, 16 years

 and older................ 5,725 9,369 10,751 14,383 3,644 1,382 3,632 5.0 1.4 3.0 3.1 4.6 4.6 5.6

 Men........................ 2,714 4,479 5,112 6,637 1,765 633 1,525 5.1 1.3 2

Women................. 3,011 4,890 5,639 7,746 1,879 749 2,107 5.0 1.4 3
Labor Force

36  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

rate of the older workers, influencing them to stay in the

labor market for longer intervals. On the one hand, defined-benefit plans encourage retirement at an early age, 

before the plan’s standard retirement age. On the other 

hand, defined-contribution pension plans are based on 

an individual’s contribution, the employer’s contribution, 

and the investment returns on those contributions. The 

structure of defined-contribution plans is such that the 

plans are age neutral and are indifferent to retirement age. 

However, under defined-contribution plans, the benefits 

increase with additional years of work. In 2008, more 

workers were covered by defined-contribution plans than 

defined-benefit plans.

In addition, the Age Discrimination in Employment 

Act was amended in 1986 to eliminate any mandatory 

retirement age. Also, today’s older individuals are more 

educated than their counterparts in the past. In general, 

those with more years of higher education have higher 

participation rates in the labor market than those who 

are less educated. Finally, the current financial crisis has 

hit the retirement savings of all workers, including older 

workers, so these older workers may decide to stay in the 

labor market longer in order to replenish their retirement 

assets as markets recover. As a result, the labor force participation rate of older workers is expected to increase in 

the future.

Factors in the decreasing participation rate. After 60 years 

of steady increase, the overall labor force participation rate 

reached an all-time high of 67.1 percent between 1997 

and 2000. Since 2001, however, the overall participation 

rate has been on a gradual decline, reaching 66.0 percent 

in 2008, the latest year for which CPS data are available. A 

number of factors are responsible for this recent downward 

pressure on the overall labor force participation rate:

•	 As the baby-boom generation has aged and moved 

from the prime age group to the older age group, 

the overall labor force participation rate has declined 

and will continue to do so in the future. In 2008, 

Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 

2018

Table 2.

Group

1988

Level

1998 1988–

98

2008 2018 1998–

2008

1988–

98

Change

1988

Annual growth 

rate (percent) 

1998 2008 2008–

18

Percent distribution

[Numbers in thousands]

1998–

2008

2008–

18

2018

All other groups1 ... – – 5,654 7,253 – – 1,599 – – 2.5 – –

 Men........................ – – 2,760 3,534 – – 774 – – 2.5 – –

Women................. – – 2,894 3,719 – – 825 – – 2.5 – –

Hispanic origin,

16 years and

 older ........................ 13,325 21,070 32,141 43,525 7,745 11,071 11,384 4.7 4.3 3.1 

 Men........................ 6,604 10,734 16,524 21,803 4,130 5,790 5,279 5.0 4.4 2

Women................. 6,721 10,335 15,616 21,722 3,614 5,281 6,106 4.4 4.2 3

Other than 

Hispanic origin,

16 years and

 older ........................ 171,288 184,150 201,647 215,381 12,862 17,497 13,734 .7 .9 .7 

 Men........................ 81,253 88,024 96,589 103,892 6,771 8,565 7,303 .8 .9 .7 

Women................. 90,035 96,127 105,059 111,488 6,092 8,932 6,429 .7 .9 .6 

White nonHispanic, 16 years

 and older................ 145,346 151,406 159,674 165,015 6,060 8,268 5,341 .4 .5 .3 

 Men........................ 69,521 73,100 77,317 80,713 3,579 4,217 3,396 .5 .6 .4 

Women................. 75,825 78,305 82,357 84,302 2,480 4,052 1,945 .3 .5 .2 

Age of baby

boomers........... 24 to 42 34 to 52 44 to 62 54 to 72 – – – – –

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as being

of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian

and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.

Dash indicates no data collected for category.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

Civilian labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008,

and projected 2018

Table 3.

Group

Participation rate

1988 1998 2008 2018 1998–

2008

1988–

98

Percentage-point change

Total, 16 years and older......................... 65.9 67.1 66.0 64.5 1.2 –1.1 –1.5 0

16 to 24........................................................ 68.4 65.9 58.8 54.5 –2.5 –7.1 –4.3 

16 to 19 ..................................................... 55.3 52.8 40.2 33.8 –2.5 –12.6 –6.4 –

20 to 24 ..................................................... 78.7 77.5 74.4 71.3 –1.2 –3.1 –3.1 

25 to 54........................................................ 82.9 84.1 83.1 82.5 1.2 –1.0 –.6 

25 to 34 ..................................................... 83.3 84.6 83.3 82.4 1.3 –1.3 –.9 

35 to 44 ..................................................... 84.6 84.7 84.1 83.2 .1 –.6 –.9 

45 to 54 ..................................................... 79.6 82.5 81.9 81.7 2.9 –.6 –.2

55 and older............................................... 30.0 31.3 39.4 43.5 1.3 8.1 4.1 

55 to 64 ..................................................... 54.6 59.3 64.5 68.1 4.7 5.2 3.

55 to 59 .................................................. 65.7 69.5 73.1 75.9 3.8 3.6

60 to 64 .................................................. 43.4 46.8 54.1 59.7 3.4 7.3 

60 to 61 ............................................... 53.6 56.5 62.0 66.8 2.9 5

62 to 64 ............................................... 36.3 39.9 47.2 54.7 3.6 7.3 

65 and older............................................ 11.5 11.9 16.8 22.4 .4 4.9 5.6 

65 to 74 .................................................. 16.1 17.7 25.1 30.5 1.6 7.4 5.4 

65 to 69 ............................................... 20.1 22.5 30.7 36.9 2.4 8.2 

70 to 74 ............................................... 10.9 12.5 17.8 22.0 1.6 5.3 

75 and older......................................... 4.2 4.7 7.3 10.3 .5 2.6 3.0 

75 to 79 ............................................... 6.1 6.6 10.3 14.3 .5 3.7 4.0 

Men, 16 years and older.......................... 76.2 74.9 73.0 70.6 –1.3 –1.9 –2.4 

16 to 24........................................................ 72.4 68.4 61.0 56.3 –4.0 –7.4 –4.7 

16 to 19 ..................................................... 56.9 53.3 40.1 33.2 –3.6 –13.2 –6.9 –

20 to 24 ..................................................... 85.0 82.0 78.7 75.2 –3.0 –3.3 -3.5 

25 to 54........................................................ 93.6 91.8 90.5 89.9 –1.8 –1.3 –.6 

25 to 34 ..................................................... 94.3 93.2 91.5 90.6 –1.1 –1.7 –.9 

35 to 44 ..................................................... 94.5 92.6 92.2 92.0 –1.9 –.4 –.2

45 to 54 ..................................................... 90.9 89.2 88.0 87.1 –1.7 –1.2 –.9 

55 and older............................................... 39.9 39.1 46.0 48.0 –.8 6.9 2.0 

55 to 64 ..................................................... 67.0 68.1 70.4 71.2 1.1 2.3 .

55 to 59 .................................................. 79.3 78.4 78.8 78.6 –.9 .4 

60 to 64 .................................................. 54.4 55.4 59.9 63.1 1.0 4.5

60 to 61 ............................................... 67.1 67.0 67.9 68.9 –.1 

62 to 64 ............................................... 45.4 47.3 53.0 58.8 1.9 5.7

65 and older............................................ 16.5 16.5 21.5 26.7 .0 5.0 5.2 

65 to 74 .................................................. 21.3 22.6 29.7 34.4 1.3 7.1 4.7 

65 to 69 ............................................... 25.8 28.0 35.6 40.3 2.2 7.6 

70 to 74 ............................................... 15.2 16.5 21.9 26.4 1.3 5.

75 and older......................................... 7.4 7.5 10.4 13.9 .1 2.9 3.5 

75 to 79 ............................................... 9.6 9.9 13.5 17.6 .3 3.6 4.1 

Women, 16 years and older................... 56.6 59.8 59.5 58.7 3.2 –.3 –.8 

16 to 24........................................................ 64.5 63.3 56.5 52.7 –1.2 –6.8 –3.8 

16 to 19 ..................................................... 53.6 52.3 40.2 34.4 –1.3 –12.1 –5.8 –

20 to 24 ..................................................... 72.7 73.0 70.0 67.3 .3 –3.0 –2.7 

25 to 54........................................................ 72.7 76.5 75.8 75.1 3.8 –.7 –.7 

25 to 34 ..................................................... 72.7 76.3 75.2 74.2 3.6 –1.1 –1.0 

35 to 44 ..................................................... 75.2 77.1 76.1 74.6 1.9 –1.0 –1.5 

45 to 54 ..................................................... 69.0 76.2 76.1 76.6 7.2 –.1 .5

55 and older............................................... 22.3 25.0 33.9 39.5 2.7 8.9 5.6 

55 to 64 ..................................................... 43.5 51.2 59.1 65.3 7.7 7.9 6.2 

55 to 59 .................................................. 53.3 61.3 67.7 73.3 8.0 6.4 

60 to 64 .................................................. 33.8 39.1 48.7 56.6 5.3 9.6 

60 to 61 ............................................... 41.7 47.3 56.5 64.8 5.6 9.2 

62 to 64 ............................................... 28.5 33.3 42.0 50.9 4.8 8.7 

65 and older......................................... 7.9 8.6 13.3 18.9 .7 4.7 5.6 

65 to 74 ..................................................... 11.9 13.7 21.1 27.1 1.8 7.4 6.0 

65 to 69 ............................................... 15.4 17.8 26.4 33.9 2.4 8.6 

70 to 74 ............................................... 7.5 9.3 14.3 18.3 1.8 5.0 

75 and older......................................... 2.4 2.9 5.2 7.7 .5 2.3 2.5 

75 to 79 ............................................... 3.8 4.2 7.9 11.7 .4 3.7 3.8 

1988–

98

Annual growth rate

1998–

2008

2008–

18

2008–

18

[In percent]
Labor Force

38  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

cial Security benefits has been one factor. In addition, 

the structure of benefits and defined-benefit pension 

plans has been responsible for the early retirement of 

men in the past two decades. The downward trend of 

the men’s participation rate is projected to continue 

in the future. 

•	 The labor force participation rate of youths decreases

in recessions and has declined considerably since the 

2001 recession. With increasing school enrollments, 

more young people than ever are continuing their 

education in hopes of pursuing better paying careers 

and becoming more marketable.10 As a result, the 

participation rate of youths is not projected to increase in the coming years. 

In contrast to the factors producing decreasing trends 

of participation in the aforementioned groups, a number 

of factors have been responsible for an upward pressure 

on the overall labor force participation rate. However, 

the baby-boom cohort was 44 to 62 years of age. In 

2018, they will be 54 to 72 years old. In 2008, the 

participation rate of 25- to 54-year-olds was 83.1 

percent, whereas the participation rate of those 55 

years and older was 39.4 percent, less than half that 

for the prime age group. The movement of roughly 

77 million baby boomers from participation rates 

above 80 percent to the significantly lower (less than 

40 percent) participation rates of older age groups 

will significantly dampen the overall participation 

rate.

•	 The labor force participation of women seems to

have peaked in 1999 and has been decreasing in the 

past 2 years. It is not expected to rebound to higher 

rates in the near future.

•	 The labor force participation rate of men has been

steadily declining since its peak at the end of the 

1940s. The increased availability of disability and SoContinued—Civilian labor force participation rates, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008,

and projected 2018

Table 3.

Group

Participation rate

1988 1998 2008 2018 1998–

2008

1988–

98

Percentage-point change

Race:

 White............................................................ 66.2 67.3 66.3 64.5 1.1 –1.0 –1.8 0

 Men............................................................. 76.9 75.6 73.7 71.1 –1.3 –1.9 –2.6 

Women...................................................... 56.4 59.4 59.2 58.2 3.0 –.2 –1.0

 Black ............................................................. 63.8 65.6 63.7 63.3 1.8 –1.9 –.4 

 Men............................................................. 71.0 69.0 66.7 65.7 –2.0 –2.3 –1.0 

Women...................................................... 58.0 62.8 61.3 61.2 4.8 –1.5 –.1

 Asian............................................................. 65.0 67.0 67.0 65.0 2.0 .0 –2.0

 Men............................................................. 74.4 75.5 75.3 73.8 1.1 –.2 –1.5

Women...................................................... 56.5 59.2 59.4 57.4 2.7 .2 –2.0

All other groups1 ...................................... – – 65.6 66.6 – – 1.0 – 

 Men............................................................. – – 71.4 70.1 – – –1.3 – –

Women...................................................... – – 60.1 63.3 – – 3.2 – – 

Ethnicity:

 Hispanic origin.......................................... 67.4 68.0 68.5 67.3 .6 .5 –1.2

 Men............................................................. 81.9 79.8 80.2 78.2 –2.1 .4 –2.0 

Women...................................................... 53.2 55.6 56.2 56.4 2.4 .6 .

Other than Hispanic origin................... 65.8 67.0 65.6 63.9 1.2 –1.4 –1.7 .2 –

 Men............................................................. 75.7 74.3 71.7 68.9 -1.4 –2.6 –2.8 –.2 –

Women...................................................... 56.8 60.3 60.0 59.2 3.5 –.3 –.8 .6 –

 White non-Hispanic ................................ 66.1 67.2 65.9 64.7 1.1 –1.3 –1.2 

 Men............................................................. 76.4 75.0 72.4 70.7 –1.4 –2.6 –1.7 

Women...................................................... 56.7 59.9 59.8 59.0 3.2 –.1 –.8

1988–

98

Annual growth rate

1998–

2008

2008–

18

2008–

18

[In percent]

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as being

of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian

and Alaska Native or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. Dash

indicates no data collected for category.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

the strength of two factors has not been able to keep the 

overall rate from falling even further:

• 	 The labor force participation rate of the 55-yearsand-older age group has increased significantly since 

the mid-1990s. (See chart 3.) The participation rate 

of this group were relatively flat during the 1970s and 

1980s. By 1988, the group’s rate was 30.0 percent. 

In 1998, the rate increased again to 31.3 percent. A 

decade later, in 2008, the rate had risen significantly, 

to 39.4 percent. All the subgroups of the older age 

group, including 65- to 74-year-olds and those older 

than 75, experienced significant growth in their participation rates. (See chart 4.) In addition, chart 5 

highlights the monthly participation rates of the 55-

years-and-older group from January 2007 to August 

2009, the last month for which data were available at 

the time this article was written.11

• 	 The labor force participation rate of Hispanics and

Asians has been increasing steadily in the past several decades. Compared with other groups, Hispanic 

and Asian men have very strong attachments to the 

labor market.

Labor force participation peaks between the ages 

of 25 and 54. In 2008, the participation rate of this age 

group was 83.1 percent. The BLS projects that this group’s 

participation rate in 2018 will be 82.5 percent, a decline of 

0.6 percentage point. The participation rate of the 55-andolder age group in 2008 was 39.4 percent, less than half of 

the activity rate of the prime age group. In 2018, the baby 

boomers will be between 54 and 72, and they will be past 

their strongest years of attachment to the labor market. 

Thus, the main factor in reducing the overall labor force 

participation rate in the next decade will be the aging of 

the baby-boom generation and its movement into the 55-

and-older age group. 

Over the next 10 years, decreases in participation rates 

are projected to be mainly in the young and prime age 

groups, together comprising those from 16 to 54 years of 

age. However, all the subgroups in the 55-and-older age 

group are projected to increase their participation rates. 

The strong growth of the older group’s participation rates 

is a continuation of the trends of the last two decades. The 

BLS projects that the labor force participation rate of the 

55-and-older age group will continue its strong growth 

and reach 43.5 percent by 2018. In particular, two subgroups of the older group—those 62 to 64 years and those 

65 to 74 years—are projected to show strong growth in 

their participation rates. Chart 6 shows the labor force 

participation rates of youths, the prime age group, and 

older people in 1988–2008 and projected 2018 figures. 

Note that the increase in the labor force participation 

rates of older workers will not be able to compensate for 

the decreasing participation rates of the other age groups 

and, as a result, the overall labor force participation rate 

is projected to decrease by 1.5 percentage points between 

2008 and 2018, dropping to 64.5 percent. 

Demographic Patterns. Labor force participation rates 

follow different, but consistent, patterns over time across 

specific age groups, between the sexes, and among race 

and ethnic groups.

Age. Labor force participation is low for youths because 

some are still enrolled in school. Labor force participation 

increases during the prime working years (ages 25 to 54) 

and then declines sharply after age 55, as workers retire. 

For example, the participation rate was 58.8 percent in 

2008 for persons aged 16 to 24 years, 83.1 percent for the 

prime age group, and 39.4 percent for the 55-and-older 

age groups.

Sex. Historically, the men’s participation rate has exhibited a downward trend since at least the 1950s, while the 

women’s rate has been steadily increasing. The long-term 

declines in the labor force participation rates of men in all 

age groups are expected to continue for a variety of reasons. With an increase in school attendance at all levels, 

especially the secondary school and college levels, labor 

force participation rates of the younger age groups—for 

both men and women—have decreased drastically. The 

increased availability of pensions and Social Security disability benefits beginning in the 1980s has resulted in a 

decrease in the activity rates of older men and encouraged 

their early retirement from the workforce. The slowerthan-average labor market recovery since 2000 and the 

serious economic downturn and financial crisis of the 

most recent recession has contributed to a lower participation rate of men in the labor market, and this outcome 

is expected to continue to affect the labor market in the 

foreseeable future.

In addition, men are employed predominantly in the 

construction and manufacturing industries, both of which 

have been hit hard by the current economic slowdown. 

In 2008, men represented nearly 93 percent of employed 

workers in the construction industry and 72 percent in 

the manufacturing industries12. In contrast, women are 
Labor Force

40  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

 Chart 3. Labor force participation rate of individuals 55 years and over

45

40

35

30

25

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

NOTE:  Shaded areas represent recessions.

Percent

45

40

35

30

25

Percent

 Chart 4. Labor force participation rates of older workers, 1978, 1988, 2008, and projected 2018

1978 1988 1998 2008 2018

80

60

40

20

0

80

60

40

20

0

55–59

65–69

60–64

70–74

Percent

75 and older

55 and older

Percent

NOTE:  Shaded area represents projection.
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

 Chart 5. Monthly labor force participation rate, 55 years and older, January 2007 to August 2009

Jan 2007 Jul 2007 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009

40.5

40.0

39.5

39.0

38.5

38.0

37.5

37.0

36.5

Percent Percent

40.5

40.0

39.5

39.0

38.5

38.0

37.5

37.0

36.5

 Chart 6. Labor force participation rates by age, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Percent Percent

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 and older

1988 1998 2008 2018
Labor Force

42  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

employed predominantly in the service sector, which has 

done relatively better during this recession. Moreover, 

women are more likely to work part time and without any 

benefits. During recessions, the probability of employees 

losing their jobs is less for workers in part-time jobs that 

do not offer benefits than for workers in full-time jobs 

with full benefits. Women, therefore, have had the ability 

to hold on to their part-time jobs.

Historically, men’s participation rates, both in the aggregate and for the various age groups, have been higher 

than women’s participation rates. This trend, however, has 

changed since 2006, when the labor force participation 

rates of 16-to-19-year-old women caught up with their 

male counterparts, at 43.7 percent. The participation rate 

for both teen groups will decline by 2018, but the women’s 

participation will continue to be higher than that of men. 

The difference in rates by sex holds across race and Hispanic origin groups. (See table 3.) 

1. Men. The decrease in the labor force participation 

rate of men is expected to continue over the next 

decade. The overall labor force participation rate of 

men is projected to drop by another 2.4 percentage 

points between 2008 and 2018 and is expected 

to reach 70.6 percent in 2018. Men in the 16-

to-24 age group are projected to decrease their 

participation in the labor market from a rate of 

61 percent in 2008 to 56.3 percent in 2018. The 

25-to-54-year age cohort of men also is projected 

to decrease its participation rate to 89.9 percent 

by 2018, a decline of 0.6 percentage point from 

2008. In contrast, the 55-and-older age group of 

men is projected to increase its participation rate 

by 2.0 percentage points from 46 percent in 2008 

to 48 percent in 2018. Those in the 60-to-64-years 

age group also are anticipated to increase their 

participation rate—by 3.2 percentage points—

and are expected to reach 63.1 percent in 2018. 

Even the older age group of 65- to 74-year-olds 

is expected to show an increase of 4.7 percentage 

points in its participation, reaching 34.4 percent 

in 2018. 

2. Women. The labor force participation rate of 

women, which had displayed a pattern of steady 

increases in the past and peaked in 1999, is projected to decrease in the future. From its 2008 

value of 59.5 percent the participation rate of 

women is projected to decline to 58.7 percent 

in 2018. Young women aged 16 to 24 years are 

expected to decrease their participation in the labor force from a rate of 56.5 percent in 2008 to 

52.7 percent in 2018. Similarly, 25- to 54-yearold women are projected to decrease their participation rate to 75.1 percent in 2018, a loss 

of 0.7 percentage point from the 2008 rate. In 

contrast to the younger age groups, the 55-yearsand-older age group of women is projected to 

have a significant increase of 5.6 percentage 

points, reaching 39.5 percent in 2018. Likewise, 

those in the 60-to-64-years group are anticipated 

to experience a significant increase—7.9 percentage points—in participation, attaining a rate of 

56.6 percent in 2018. Even the older age group 

of 65- to 74-year-olds are expected to show an 

increase of 6.0 percent in their participation rates, 

reaching 27.1 percent in 2018.

Race and ethnic origin. Although the labor force participation rates of the various racial and ethnic categories 

are different, the differences usually are not as great as 

those observed for the different age and sex groups. Both 

participation rate changes and population growth for the 

various racial and ethnic categories result in substantial 

differences in their future labor force growth.

The data shown in the lower part of table 3 are duplicated in the following box, which shows the variation in, 

and ranking of, the various labor force participation rates 

by race in 2008 (the groups are ranked from 1, which signifies the highest labor force participation rates in 2008, 

to 4, the lowest).

Total Men Women Rank

Hispanic Hispanic Black 1 

Asian Asian White nonHispanic 2

White nonHispanicWhite nonHispanic Asian 3

Black Black Hispanic 4 

As the table indicates, the rankings of labor force participation rates by race and by sex are different. The overall 

Hispanic labor force participation rate and the rate for 

Hispanic men are the highest relative to men’s rates in 

other racial and ethnic categories. Hispanic women, by 

contrast, have the lowest participation of all women in the 

workforce. The Hispanic population is younger relative to 

other race and ethnic groups and has a greater proportion 
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

of workers at the ages with higher participation rates. The 

overall Asian participation rate and the rate of Asian men 

ranked second among the rates of all the race and ethnic 

groups. Asian women rank third among all women. Black 

women have the highest labor force participation rate 

among all race and ethnic groups of women, while both 

the overall black participation rate and the rate of black 

men were the lowest among all race and ethnic groups. 

The overall white non-Hispanic participation rate and the 

rate of non-Hispanic men were third among the race and 

ethnic groups, while white non-Hispanic women had the 

second-highest ranking among women. Interestingly, as a 

general pattern, the women’s rankings were the reverse of 

both the men’s rankings and the overall rankings.

These preceding examples, based on 2008 data, indicate that age, sex, and race are important in describing the 

complexities inherent in the future scenario of labor force 

participation. Although the overall labor force participation rates for men and women are projected to change 

during the next 10 years, the changes are not expected to 

alter the current ranking of the different racial and ethnic 

categories.

Significantly higher participation in the labor force by 

Hispanic men and Asians are expected to increase their 

shares of the labor force over the next 10 years, continuing 

the trend of even more racial and ethnic diversity in the 

labor force.

Labor force growth

Labor force growth has always been a significant factor in 

the growth of the U.S. economy. Over the 2008–18 period, the U.S. population is expected to grow at a slower 

rate than it did in the previous decade, and the labor force 

participation rate is projected to decrease from its 2008 

value. Both factors indicate a slowdown of labor force 

growth during the next decade. The annual labor force 

growth over the 1988–98 period was 1.2 percent. The next 

decade saw labor force growth decline even further, to 1.1 

percent. It is projected that, over the 2008–18 decade, the 

annual growth rate of the labor force will be a much lower 

0.8 percent. The labor force grew by more than 16 million 

during each of the 1988–98 and 1998–2008 periods; it is 

expected to grow by a lesser 12.6 million over the next 10 

years. (See table 4.)

Age. The rapid growth of the labor force during the 1988–

98 period was brought about largely by the baby boomers’ 

entrance into the prime working-age years. Another significant factor was the earlier mentioned increase in the 

labor force participation of women during that timeframe. 

The youth labor force, which was about 22 million in 

2008, is projected to be around 21 million in 2018, a decrease of more than 900,000 workers. The prime-age labor 

force is projected to increase its numbers by about 1.5 million over the 2008–18 timeframe. In this age group, the 

subgroup of workers aged 25 to 34 years is expected to 

increase by 3.5 million. Because 35- to 44-year-olds and 

44- to 54-year-olds, members of the baby bust generation, 

are each projected to have a reduction in their labor force 

numbers, the overall prime age group will grow by just 

0.1 percent annually. 

The older workers’ labor force, which has experienced 

the fastest rates of population growth and the greatest increases in labor force participation, is expected to grow by 

nearly 12 million in the next decade. Within that group, 

55- to 64-year-olds are expected to add more than 7 million to their 2008 numbers, and 65- to 74-year-olds are 

projected to increase their numbers by more than 4 million. The labor force cohort of those 75 years and older 

is projected to grow by nearly 800,000. As a result of the 

rising shares of the older age groups in the labor force, the 

55-years-and-older labor force is anticipated to increase 

its share to nearly 24 percent of the total labor force. 

Similarly, the share held by 55- to 64-year-olds is projected to increase to about 17 percent, while that of 65- to 

74-year-olds is expected to grow to 5.4 percent. Even the 

75-years-and-older labor force is projected to increase its 

share to 1.2 percent of the total labor force. 

Sex. The men’s labor force grew by 10.5 percentage 

points in the 1988–98 timeframe. The growth rate then 

increased to 11.6 percentage points between 1998 and 

2008. As women’s labor force participation rates rose significantly during the 1988–98 period, the women’s labor 

force increased by more than 16 percentage points. The 

growth rate was still an impressive 12.6 percentage points 

during the 1998–2008 period. 

Labor force growth for men was less than that for 

women in the past two decades. Following the trends of 

the past 20 years, the labor force growth rates of both men 

and women are projected to slow, with the men’s labor 

force projected to grow more slowly than the women’s. 

The slowing labor force growth rates result from more 

gradual population growth and decreasing participation 

rates for both groups. The men’s labor force is projected to 

have a 0.7-percent annual growth rate, while the women’s 

is expected to grow by 0.9 percent. The women’s share of 

the labor force is projected to increase from 46.5 percent 

to 46.9 percent, and the men’s share is projected to de-
Labor Force

44  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

Total, 16 years

and older.... 121,669 137,673 154,287 166,911 16,004 16,614 12,624 13.2 12.1 8.2 100.0 100.0 

16 to 24....... 22,536 21,894 22,032 21,131 –642 138 –901 –2.8 .6 –4.1 18.5 15.

16 to 19 .... 8,031 8,256 6,858 5,868 225 –1,398 –990 2.8 –16.9 –14.4 6.6 6.

20 to 24 .... 14,505 13,638 15,174 15,263 –867 1,536 89 –6.0 11.3 .6 11.9 

25 to 54....... 84,041 98,718 104,396 105,944 14,677 5,678 1,548 17.5 5.8 1.5 69.1 71

25 to 34 .... 35,503 32,813 33,332 36,814 –2,690 519 3,482 –7.6 1.6 10.4 29.2 23.

35 to 44 .... 29,435 37,536 35,061 34,787 8,101 –2,475 –274 27.5 –6.6 –.8 24.2 27.3

45 to 54 .... 19,104 28,368 36,003 34,343 9,264 7,635 –1,660 48.5 26.9 –4.6 15.7 20.6

55 and

 older.............. 15,092 17,062 27,858 39,836 1,970 10,796 11,978 13.1 63.3 43.0 12.4 12.4

55 to 64 .... 11,808 13,215 21,615 28,754 1,407 8,400 7,139 11.9 63.6 33.0 9.7 9.6

65 to 74 .... 2,814 3,179 4,985 9,045 365 1,806 4,060 13.0 56.8 81.4 2.3 2

75 and

 older........ 471 668 1,258 2,037 197 590 779 41.8 88.3 61.9 .4 

Men, 16 years

 and older.. 66,927 73,959 82,520 88,682 7,032 8,561 6,162 10.5 11.6 7.5 55.0 53.7 53.5 53.

16 to 24 .... 11,752 11,464 11,538 10,987 –288 74 –551 –2.5 .6 –4.8 9.7 

16 to 19. 4,159 4,244 3,472 2,923 85 –772 –549 2.0 –18.2 –15.8 3.4 3

20 to 24. 7,594 7,221 8,065 8,064 –373 844 –1 –4.9 11.7 .0 6.2 

25 to 54....... 46,382 53,002 56,202 57,309 6,620 3,200 1,107 14.3 6.0 2.0 38.1 38

25 to 34 .... 19,742 17,796 18,302 20,173 –1,946 506 1,871 –9.9 2.8 10.2 16.2 12.9

35 to 44 .... 16,074 20,242 18,972 19,109 4,168 –1,270 137 25.9 –6.3 0.7 13.2 14.

45 to 54 .... 10,566 14,963 18,928 18,027 4,397 3,965 –901 41.6 26.5 -4.8 8.7 10.9

55 and

 older.......... 8,793 9,493 14,780 20,386 700 5,287 5,606 8.0 55.7 37.9 7.2 6

55 to 64 .... 6,831 7,253 11,345 14,479 422 4,092 3,134 6.2 56.4 27.6 5.6 

65 to 74 .... 1,657 1,826 2,724 4,753 169 898 2,029 10.2 49.2 74.5 1.4 1

75 and

 older ...... 304 413 711 1,154 109 298 443 35.9 72.2 62.3 .2 

Women, 16

 years and 

 older.......... 54,742 63,714 71,767 78,229 8,972 8,053 6,462 16.4 12.6 9.0 45.0 46.

16 to 24 .... 10,783 10,430 10,494 10,144 –353 64 –350 –3.3 .6 –3.3 8.9 

16 to 19. 3,872 4,012 3,385 2,946 140 –627 –439 3.6 –15.6 –13.0 3.2 2.

20 to 24. 6,910 6,418 7,109 7,198 –492 691 89 –7.1 10.8 1.3 5.7 

25 to 54 .... 37,659 45,716 48,195 48,635 8,057 2,479 440 21.4 5.4 .9 31.0 33

25 to 34 . 15,761 15,017 15,030 16,641 –744 13 1,611 –4.7 .1 10.7 13.0 10

35 to 44 . 13,361 17,294 16,089 15,678 3,933 –1,205 –411 29.4 –7.0 –2.6 11.0 12.

45 to 54 . 8,537 13,405 17,075 16,316 4,868 3,670 –759 57.0 27.4 –4.4 7.0 9.

55 and

 older ...... 6,301 7,569 13,078 19,449 1,268 5,509 6,371 20.1 72.8 48.7 5.2 5.

55 to 64 . 4,977 5,962 10,270 14,275 985 4,308 4,005 19.8 72.3 39.0 4.1 4

65 to 74 . 1,157 1,352 2,261 4,291 195 909 2,030 16.9 67.2 89.8 1.0 1

75 and

 older ... 167 255 547 883 88 292 336 52.7 114.5 61.4 .1 

 White........... 104,756 115,415 125,635 132,490 10,659 10,220 6,855 10.2 8.9 5.5 86.1 83

 Men............ 58,317 63,034 68,351 71,731 4,717 5,317 3,380 8.1 8.4 4.9 47.9 4

Women..... 46,439 52,380 57,284 60,759 5,941 4,904 3,475 12.8 9.4 6.1 38.2 38

 Black ............ 13,205 15,982 17,740 20,244 2,777 1,758 2,504 21.0 11.0 14.1 10.9 11.6

 Men............ 6,596 7,542 8,347 9,579 946 805 1,232 14.3 10.7 14.8 5.4 5

Women..... 6,609 8,441 9,393 10,665 1,832 952 1,272 27.7 11.3 13.5 5.4 6

 Asian............ 3,718 6,278 7,202 9,345 2,560 924 2,143 68.9 14.7 29.8 3.1 4

 Men............ 2,017 3,383 3,852 4,895 1,366 469 1,043 67.7 13.9 27.1 1.7 2

Women..... 1,701 2,895 3,350 4,450 1,194 455 1,100 70.2 15.7 32.8 1.4 2

Table 4. Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Group 

Level

1998–

2008

1988–

98 2008 2008–

18 1988 1998

Change

1988-

98

Percent distribution

1998-

2008

2008-

18 2008

[Numbers in thousands]

1998–

2008

2008–

18 2018

Percent

change

1988–

98 1988 1998 2018

Annual growth 

rate (percent)
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

 

 All other 

groups1..... – – 3,710 4,832 – – 1,122 – – 30.2 – – 2.4 2

 Men............ – – 1,970 2,477 – – 507 – – 25.7 – – 1.3 1

Women..... – – 1,740 2,355 – – 615 – – 35.3 – – 1.1 1

 Hispanic 

origin......... 8,982 14,317 22,024 29,304 5,335 7,707 7,280 59.4 53.8 33.1 7.4 10.4

 Men............ 5,409 8,571 13,255 17,051 3,162 4,684 3,796 58.5 54.6 28.6 4.4 6.

Women..... 3,573 5,746 8,769 12,253 2,173 3,023 3,484 60.8 52.6 39.7 2.9 4

 Other than 

 Hispanic 

origin......... 112,687 123,356 132,263 137,607 10,669 8,907 5,344 9.5 7.2 4.0 92.6 8

 Men............ 61,518 65,388 69,265 71,631 3,870 3,877 2,366 6.3 5.9 3.4 50.6 4

Women..... 51,169 57,968 62,998 65,976 6,799 5,030 2,978 13.3 8.7 4.7 42.1 42

 White non-

 Hispanic ... 96,141 101,767 105,210 106,834 5,626 3,443 1,624 5.9 3.4 1.5 79.0 7

 Men............ 53,122 54,833 55,971 57,075 1,711 1,138 1,104 3.2 2.1 2.0 43.7 3

Women..... 43,018 46,935 49,238 49,759 3,917 2,303 521 9.1 4.9 1.1 35.4 3

Table 4. Continued—Civilian labor force, by age, sex, race, and ethnicity, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Group

Level

1998–

2008

1988–

98 2008 2008–

18 1988 1998

Change

1988–

98

Percent distribution

1998–

2008

2008–

18 2008

[Numbers in thousands]

1998–

2008

2008–

18 2018

Percent

change

1988–

98 1988 1998 2018

Annual growth 

rate (percent)

1 The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as of being

of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian

and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.

Dash indicates no data collected for category. Details may not sum to totals

because of roundin

crease from 53.5 percent to 53.1 percent, during the next 

decade.

In contrast to both prime age workers and the older 

labor force, the labor force of 16-to-24-year-old men had 

an annual decrease of 0.2 percent, and women of the same 

age group had an annual decrease of 0.3 percent, over the 

1988–98 period. Both groups had a negligible positive 

growth rate of 0.1 percent the next decade. From 2008 

to 2018, the growth rate is projected to become negative 

for both once again: an annual decrease of 0.5 percent 

for men and a 0.3-percent annual decline for women. 

As regards the prime age group, men had a growth rate 

of 1.3 percent and women experienced a growth rate of 

2.0 percent between 1988 and 1998. In the next decade, 

the men’s and women’s growth rates converged at around 

0.6 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively. The BLS expects 

that the growth rate of the prime age group of men and 

women will increase by negligible amounts during 2008–

18. 

The men’s 55-years-and-older labor force had a growth 

rate of 0.8 percent in 1988–98 and a much stronger growth 

of 4.5 percent in 1998–2008. The BLS projects that over 

the 2008–18 period, the growth rate of the older men’s 

labor force will be about 3.3 percent. Women in the 55-

and-older age group had a stronger growth rate—1.9 percent—than their male counterparts over the 1988–98 

timeframe and then experienced an even stronger growth 

rate of 5.6 percent from 1998 to 2008. The BLS expects 

that, over the next 10 years, older women’s labor force participation will grow by 4.0 percent. 

Race and Hispanic origin. White non-Hispanics were 

the largest group in the labor force in 1988, accounting 

for 79 percent of the total. However, this group had the 

lowest growth rate of all race and ethnic groups—0.6 percent—in 1988–98 and then fell to half of that rate—0.3 

percent—in 1998–2008. The BLS projects that, in the next 

decade, the growth rate of this group will continue to decline, to 0.2 percent. The slower growth rate of the white 

non-Hispanic labor force, which has led the group to an 

increasingly smaller share in the total labor force over the 

last several decades, is a reflection of a variety of factors. 

First, the white non-Hispanic share of immigrants to the 

United States has declined considerably during the past 

two decades. Second, white non-Hispanic birthrates have 

been on the decline compared with those of other popula-
Labor Force

46  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

tion groups. Finally, white non-Hispanic men make up a 

significant share of the aging and retiring labor force each 

year. As a result of all three of the preceding factors, the 

white non-Hispanic share of the labor force decreased to 

73.9 percent in 1998 and to 68.2 percent in 2008. 

Asians, who make up the smallest share of the labor 

force, increased their share from 3.1 percent to 4.6 percent from 1988 to 1998 and then to 4.7 percent in 2008. 

The Asian labor force, which is projected to reach more 

than 9 million in 2018, will remain the smallest group in 

the labor force. Still, it is expected that Asians will have 

the second-highest annual rate of labor force growth of all 

the race and ethnic groups, 2.6 percent, increasing their 

share to 5.6 percent of the labor force. The highest labor 

force growth rate over the 2008–18 period will be that 

of Hispanics, projected at 2.9 percent annually. Hispanics increased their share of the total labor force from 7.4 

percent to 10.4 percent over the 1988–98 period, and then 

to an even greater 14.3 percent in 2008. The BLS projects 

that the Hispanic share will increase yet further, to 17.6 

percent of the total labor force by 2018. Blacks increased 

their share from 10.9 percent in 1988 to 11.6 percent in 

1998 and to 11.5 percent over the next decade. The black 

labor force is projected to total more than 20 million and 

compose 12.1 percent of the labor force in 2018. 

By 2018, because of Hispanics’ younger population, 

higher fertility rates, and increased immigration, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 29 million. As a result of their divergent rates of growth of both population 

and labor force participation over the past several decades, 

the racial and ethnic groups that make up the U.S. labor 

force are projected to continue to show widely varying 

rates of growth. 

Dynamic changes in the labor force

The labor force is projected to increase by 12.6 million 

during the 2008–18 timeframe. This growth is based 

on the dynamic changes that underlie the movement of 

workers into and out of the labor force. (See table 5.) 

From 2008–2018, changes are projected to emerge from 

three dynamic groups:

•	 Entrants—those who were not in the labor force in

2008, but will enter during the 2008–18 period and 

continue to be part of the labor force in 2018.

•	 Leavers—those who were in the labor force in 2008,

but will leave during the 2008–18 period and will 

not be in the labor force in 2018. 

•	 Stayers—those who were in the labor force in 2008

and will remain in it through 2018.13

The 2018 labor force will be different from today’s labor 

force to the extent that the demographic composition of 

labor force entrants between 2008 and 2018 is different 

from the composition of those now in the labor force.

During the 2008–18 period, the labor force will be affected by the demographic composition of those leaving, 

those entering, and those staying in the labor force.

The BLS projects that, between 2008 and 2018, 37.6 million workers will enter the labor force and 25 million will 

leave. (See chart 7.) These figures compare with 36 million 

entrants and 19.4 million leavers over the 1998–2008 period. The number of entrants into the labor force is anticipated to be around 1.6 million more than in the previous 

decade. However, 5.6 million more people are expected 

to leave the labor force, mainly as a result of aging and 

retirement. (See chart 8.) Continuing the trends of the 

previous decade, the entrants are projected to be mostly 

men. During the 2008–18 timeframe, more than 20 million men are expected to enter the labor force, compared 

with 17 million women. The leavers also are more likely 

to be men because the male labor force—especially white 

non-Hispanic men—has greater number of older workers 

than the women’s labor force. According to BLS projections, 14.3 million men are projected to leave the labor 

force by 2018, resulting in a labor force of 88.7 million 

men. Similarly, 10.7 million women are projected to leave 

the workforce by 2018. Because relatively fewer women 

are expected to leave the labor force in 2008–18, the share 

of women in the overall labor force is projected to increase 

to 46.9 percent in 2018.

Race and Hispanic origin. The BLS projects that there 

will be nearly 28 million white entrants to the labor force 

between 2008 and 2018. The largest share is expected to 

be from the white non-Hispanic group, with 20.8 million 

entrants. However, the white non-Hispanic share of entrants is much smaller than the group’s share of the labor 

force, reflecting the group’s lower population growth, as 

a result of both lower birthrates and very little migration 

of white non-Hispanics into the United States. The result 

is relatively fewer labor force entrants and relatively more 

labor force leavers, a reflection of the aging of the white 

non-Hispanic men in the labor force. About 19 million 

white non-Hispanic workers are projected to leave over the 

2008–18 period, resulting in the share of white non-Hispanics in the labor force falling to 64 percent in 2018—a 

drop of 4.2 percentage points from the 2008 share and 
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

Table 5. Civilian labor force, entrants, leavers, and stayers, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

Group 1998

1998–2008

Entrants Leavers Stayers Entrants

2008

Leavers

2008–18

 Number,16 years and older

Total................................................................ 137,673 36,036 19,422 118,251 154,287 37,632 25,008 1

 Men............................................................... 73,959 19,551 10,990 62,969 82,520 20,429 14,267 

Women........................................................ 63,714 16,485 8,432 55,282 71,767 17,203 10,741 

White ............................................................. 115,414 27,211 16,990 98,424 125,635 27,990 21,135 1

 Men............................................................... 63,034 15,100 9,783 53,251 68,351 15,554 12,174 

Women........................................................ 52,380 12,111 7,207 45,173 57,284 12,436 8,961 

Black .............................................................. 15,983 4,347 2,590 13,393 17,740 5,403 2,899 

 Men............................................................... 7,542 2,125 1,320 6,222 8,347 2,673 1,441

Women........................................................ 8,441 2,222 1,270 7,171 9,393 2,730 1,458 

Asian .............................................................. 6,278 1,908 984 5,294 7,202 2,837 694

 Men............................................................... 3,383 1,033 564 2,819 3,852 1,493 450

Women........................................................ 2,895 875 420 2,475 3,350 1,344 244

All other groups......................................... – – – – 3,710 1,402 280 3,430 4,8

 Men............................................................... – – – 1,970 709 202 1,768 

Women........................................................ – – – – 1,740 693 78 1,662 2,3

Hispanic origin............................................ 14,317 8,743 1,036 13,281 22,024 9,237 1,957 

 Men............................................................... 8,571 5,274 590 7,981 13,255 5,078 1,282 

Women........................................................ 5,746 3,469 446 5,300 8,769 4,159 675 

Other than Hispanic ................................. 123,356 27,293 18,386 104,970 132,263 28,395 23,051 1

 Men............................................................... 65,388 14,277 10,400 54,988 69,265 15,351 12,985 

Women........................................................ 57,968 13,016 7,986 49,982 62,998 13,044 10,066 

White Non-Hispanic.................................. 101,768 19,598 16,157 85,611 105,209 20,847 19,222 

 Men............................................................... 54,833 10,361 9,223 45,610 55,971 11,907 10,803 

Women........................................................ 46,935 9,237 6,934 40,001 49,238 8,940 8,419 

Share (percent),16 years and older

Total................................................................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 Men............................................................... 53.7 54.3 56.6 53.3 53.5 54.3 57

Women........................................................ 46.3 45.7 43.4 46.7 46.5 45.7 43

White ............................................................. 83.8 75.5 87.5 83.2 81.4 74.4 84

 Men............................................................... 45.8 41.9 50.4 45.0 44.3 41.3 48

Women........................................................ 38.0 33.6 37.1 38.2 37.1 33.0 35

Black .............................................................. 11.6 12.1 13.3 11.3 11.5 14.4 11

 Men............................................................... 5.5 5.9 6.8 5.3 5.4 7.1 

Women........................................................ 6.1 6.2 6.5 6.1 6.1 7.3 

Asian............................................................... 4.6 5.3 5.1 4.5 4.7 7.5 

 Men............................................................... 2.5 2.9 2.9 2.4 2.5 4.0 

Women........................................................ 2.1 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.2 3.6 

All other groups......................................... – – – – 2.4 3.7 1.1 2.7 2

 Men............................................................... – – – – 1.3 1.9 0.8 1.4 1

Women........................................................ – – – – 1.1 1.8 0.3 1.3 1

Hispanic origin............................................ 10.4 24.3 5.3 11.2 14.3 24.5 7

 Men............................................................... 6.2 14.6 3.0 6.7 8.6 13.5 

Women........................................................ 4.2 9.6 2.3 4.5 5.7 11.1 

Other than Hispanic ................................. 89.6 75.7 94.7 88.8 85.7 75.5 92

 Men............................................................... 47.5 39.6 53.5 46.5 44.9 40.8 51

Women........................................................ 42.1 36.1 41.1 42.3 40.8 34.7 40

White Non-Hispanic.................................. 73.9 54.4 83.2 72.4 68.2 55.4 76

 Men............................................................... 39.8 28.8 47.5 38.6 36.3 31.6 43

Women........................................................ 34.1 25.6 35.7 33.8 31.9 23.8 33

Stayers

2018

[Numbers in thousands]

NOTE:  The “all other groups” category includes (1) those classified as

of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian

and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders.

Dash indicates no data collected for category. Details may not sum to

totals because of roundin
Labor Force

48  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

1998–2008 2008–18

 Chart 7. Labor force entrants, 1998–2008 and projected 2008–18

Millions Millions

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

White Black Asian Hispanic

1998–2008 2008–18

 Chart 8. Labor force leavers, 1998–2008 and projected 2008–18

Millions Millions

White Black Asian Hispanic

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

nearly 10 percentage points from the group’s 1998 share. 

In the 1998–2008 period, white non-Hispanic men also 

had supplied the most entrants: 28.8 percent of all entrants. White non-Hispanic men made up 47.5 percent 

of job leavers.

Blacks are projected to add 2.5 million workers to the 

labor force between 2008 and 2018. The BLS expects that 

among new entrants during this period, 14.4 percent will 

be black, compared to 12.1 percent of the entrants during 

the 1998–2008 period. The black labor force is projected 

to grow slightly faster than the overall labor force because 

of higher-than-average birthrates and immigration. 

In 1998, the Hispanics labor force made up 10.4 percent of the total labor force, with 14.3 million participants. 

Because of higher levels of immigration, some 8.7 million 

Hispanics entered the labor force during the 1998–2008 

period. Over the same time span, just slightly more than 

one million Hispanics left the labor force, reflecting their 

group’s relatively young age composition. By 2008, the 

Hispanic labor force numbered 22 million, making up 

14.3 percent of the labor force. The Hispanic labor force is 

projected to grow by 7.3 million, increasing to a workforce 

of 29 million in 2018. Significantly more Hispanic labor 

force entrants, 9.2 million, and relatively fewer Hispanic 

labor force leavers, nearly 2 million, are projected during 

the 2008–18 timeframe. The Hispanic share of the labor 

force is expected to increase more than that of any other 

demographic group, because of both overall population 

growth—from higher births and increased immigration—and significantly higher labor force participation 

rates.

Currently, Asians have the least numbers of all the race 

and ethnic groups in the labor force. During the 2008–18 

period, about 3 million Asians are projected to enter the 

labor force and about 694,000 are projected to leave. As a 

result, the share of Asians in the 2018 labor force is projected to be 5.6 percent. Increases in the number of Asians 

in the labor force reflect their continued high immigration 

and very high labor force participation rates.

The aging labor force

Gary Becker has called the increase in life expectancy 

over the last hundred years the “20th century’s greatest 

gift.”14 As a result of increases in life expectancy, declines 

in birthrates, and trends toward longer and healthier lives, 

the U.S. population is getting older. There are different 

methods for analyzing the age structure of the population 

and labor force. One way is to compare the relative shares 

of younger workers (those in the 16-to-24-years age 

group) with the shares of older workers in the 55-andolder groups in the labor force. Alternatively, the 16-to-64 

age group can be compared with the 65-and-older age 

groups. When the labor force share of the 65-and-older 

group increases or when the share of those less than 25 

years of age decreases, the labor force becomes older. The 

third method is to calculate the median ages of the population and the labor force. The median age is an index that 

summarizes the age distribution of the labor force; it is 

the age such that half of the labor force is above it and half 

below. All these metrics point to the rapid aging of the 

U.S. population. This aging has a considerable effect on 

labor market behavior and its measures, such as the participation rate and unemployment.15 As the baby-boom 

generation entered the labor force, the median age of the 

labor force decreased steadily until 1980. Since then, as 

the baby boomers have aged, so has the labor force. As a 

result, the median age of the labor force has been increasing. In 1962, it was 40.5 years, the highest level attained 

before the baby boomers entered the labor force. After 

that event, it dropped steadily until 1980, and it has been 

rising steadily since then, all in tandem with the aging of 

the baby boomers. With the population projected to continue aging as rapidly as in the past, the median age of the 

labor force in 2018 is expected to exceed the level reached 

in 1962. (See table 6.)

For much of the past six decades, the men’s labor force 

has been older than the women’s labor force. In 1998, 

however, the median age of the men’s labor force was 38.8 

years, and the median age of the women’s was a very close 

38.7 years. In 2008, the median age of the women’s labor 

force, at 41.4 years, surpassed that of the men’s, which 

stood at 41.0 years. The trend is expected to continue over 

the 2008–18 timeframe, with the median age of the women’s labor force increasing by much more than that of the 

men’s, reflecting not only the higher level of participation 

of older women, and the withdrawal of older men from 

the labor force. 

Historically, white participants have been older than 

the rest of the labor force, and they will continue to be 

older in 2018. Compared with whites, blacks and Hispanics are younger, reflecting their higher birthrates and 

larger shares of young workers in the labor force. Hispanics are projected to continue to have a lower median age 

than the overall labor force, but their median age of 34.5 

years in 1998 is expected to increase to 38.3 years in 2018, 

reflecting the aging of earlier immigrants. 

Black participants have been about 1.5 to 2.5 years 

younger than the overall labor force, and this age gap is 

projected to continue through 2018. Asian labor force 
Labor Force

50  Monthly Labor Review • November 20

participants have been slightly younger than the overall 

labor force, but this trend is expected to change by 2018. 

Economic dependency

The economic dependency ratio is a measure of the 

number of persons in the total population (including the 

Armed Forces overseas and children) who are not in the 

labor force, per hundred of those who are. (See table 7.) 

In 2008, for every 100 persons in the labor force, 96 were 

not. Of those not in the labor force, about 43 were children, 31 were 16 to 64 years of age, and 22 were older 

than 64 years.

The economic dependency ratio for various age groups 

shows that the decrease in the overall rate from 1975 to 

2008 is attributable to the change in the number of children. Since the 1970s, as the number of births diminished and the baby boomers aged beyond 16 years, the 

overall economic dependency ratio declined. Most of the 

30-percentage-point drop in the ratio between 1975 and 

2008 was due to the decline in the number of births. 

The projected economic dependency ratios have several implications. That the portion of the ratio attributed to 

children is expected to continue decreasing implies that 

there will be fewer children per labor force participant 

in the future. The dependency ratio for the 16-to-64 age 

 

Total.................................................................. 34.8 35.9 38.8 41.2 

 Men............................................................... 35.5 36.2 38.8 41.0 

Women........................................................ 34.0 35.6 38.7 

 White............................................................ 34.9 35.6 38.6 41.7 

 Black............................................................. 33.4 33.3 36.4 39.1 

 Asian............................................................. 33.6 35.3 37.0 40.6 

Hispanic origin ......................................... 31.1 31.3 34.5 

 White non-Hispanic............................... 35.2 35.9 39.1 43.0 

Table 6.

Group 1978 1988 1998 2008

Median age of the labor force, by sex, race, and ethnicity, 1978, 1988, 1998, 2008, and projected 2018

2018

 

Total population........................................... 126.3 99.1 96.3 96.4

Under 16 years.......................................... 61.4 45.2 43.3 43.

16 to 64 years............................................ 44.2 31.8 30.8 31.

65 years and older................................... 20.7 22.1 22.2 22.

Table 7.

Group 1975 1988 1998 2008

Economic dependency ratio, by age ,1975–2008 and projected 2018

2018

group dropped 13.2 percentage points, from 44.2 in 1975 

to 31.0 in 2008. This ratio is projected to decrease, reflecting an expected decrease in participation among men and 

women between 16 and 64 years old.

The one part of the dependency ratio that has been 

steadily increasing is the portion attributable to older 

persons. In 1975, this was by far the smallest part of the 

dependency ratio, and it is still expected to be the smallest 

proportion by 2018. However, between 1975 and 2008, 

the older persons’ dependency ratio grew, and it is projected to continue increasing, to 25 persons in 2018. 

The growth of the U.S. labor force is projected to 

slow down in the next 10 years. With the aging of the 

overall U.S. population and the baby boomers, the share 

of older workers in the labor force is expected to increase. 

Because labor force participation rates decline significantly for the older age groups, the overall labor force 

participation rate and the growth of the labor force will 

decline. In contrast, the labor force participation rate of 

older workers has been increasing and is projected to continue to do so in the future. The growing labor force shares 

of Asians, blacks, and especially Hispanics have been 

an important development of the past several decades. 

Consequently, the 2018 labor force is projected to become 

much more diverse. Between 2008 and 2018, 37.6 mil-
Monthly Labor Review • November 2009  

Notes

1

 The projections presented supersede those described by Mitra 

Toossi in “Labor Force projections to 2016: more workers in their 

golden years,” Monthly Labor Review, November 2007, pp. 33–52. The 

bls carries out labor force projections every 2 years based on the most 

recent demographic data.

2

 The civilian noninstitutional labor force consists of all employed 

and unemployed persons actively looking for a job. This group excludes 

inmates of mental and penal institutions and homes for the aged and 

persons who are on active duty in the Armed Forces. Historical data for 

this series are from the Current Population Survey (CPS), conducted 

by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. 

3

 See Jessica R. Sincavage, “The labor force and unemployment: three 

generations of change,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2004, pp. 34–41.

4

 Information about the Census Bureau’s population projections 

is from the agency’s Population Projections Program home page on 

the Internet at www.census.gov/population/www/projections/

2008projections.html (visited November 24, 2009).

5

 The projections of the Armed Forces and institutional population 

according to age, sex, race, and ethnicity for 2008–18 are based on bls 

assumptions. 

6

 The CPS is a program of personal interviews conducted monthly 

by the Census Bureau for the bls. The sample consists of about 60,000 

households selected to represent the U.S. population 16 years and 

older.

7 See David Brauer, CBO’s Projections of the Labor Force (Congressional 

Budget Office, September 2004), pp. 3–17. 

8 See Edward W. Frees, Summary of Social Security Administration 

Projections of the OASDI System Working Paper for the 2008 Technical 

Panel on Assumptions and Methods. (Social Security Advisory Board, 

December 2008); see also J. Patrick Skirvin, “Accuracy of Social 

Security Administration labor force projections.” 2007 Technical 

Panel on Assumptions and Methods (Social Security Advisory Board, 

lion workers are expected to enter the labor force, 25 million are anticipated to leave, and 129.3 million workers 

are expected to remain in the labor force. As a result, the 

labor force of 2018 is projected to be nearly 167 million, 

an increase of 12.6 million workers over the 2008 level. 

This increase represents a rate of growth of 0.8 percent, 

the same growth rate that was projected for the 2006–16 

period.

2007). Available on the Internet at www.ssab.gov/documents/2007_

TPAM_Report_Final_copy.pdf (visited November 24, 2009).

9

 See Richard W. Johnson, What Happens to Health Benefits after 

Retirement?An Issue in Brief. (Boston, Center for Retirement Research 

at Boston College, February 2007).

10 See Abraham Mosisa and Steven Hipple, “Trends in labor force 

participation in the United States,” Monthly Labor Review, October 

2006, pp. 35–57.

11 Seasonally adjusted labor force participation rates from National 

labor force statistics (CPS) data are available on the Internet at www.

bls.gov/cps (visited November 24, 2009).

12 National labor force statistics (CPS) data are available on the 

Internet at www.bls.gov/cps (visited November 24, 2009).

13 The numbers of entrants and leavers are computed by comparing 

the labor force numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If 

the labor force numbers at the second point are larger, the difference 

is termed the number of entrants. If the labor force numbers at the 

second point are smaller, the difference is said to be the number of 

leavers. These concepts understate the actual numbers likely to enter 

and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two points 

in time, but are still a valid comparison. For a further discussion of 

the methods, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Measuring Rates of Labor 

Force Dynamics,” Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section, American 

Statistical Association, 1993.

14 Gary Becker, “Longer Life Was the Century’s Greatest Gift,” 

Businessweek, Jan. 31, 2000. Available on the Internet at www.

businessweek.com/archives/2000/b3666076.arc.htm (visited 

November 24, 2009).

15 Bruce Fallick, Charles Fleischman, and Jonathan Pringle, “The 

effect of population aging on the aggregate labor market,” Labor in 

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