Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 33

College Students in the NLSY97

Who goes to college?

Evidence from the NLSY97

Estimates from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997

show that sex, race, and ethnicity are unrelated to the student’s decision

to complete the first year of college, but are related

to the decision to start college; high school grades,

by contrast, affect both the decision to start college

and the decision to stay in college for the first year

Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97), this article examines two questions: (1) who 

attends college by age 20? and (2) of those 

who go to college, who completes the first 

year? Both the decision to go to college and 

attrition from college have attracted a great 

deal of attention from parents, policymakers, 

and colleges, in part because college graduates 

earn substantially more than those without a 

degree.

Over a lifetime, higher earnings from a 

college degree reflect differences in starting 

salaries and in earning trajectories. Using 

CPS data from March 1998, 1999, and 2000, 

Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Eric C. Newberger estimate that, over a worklife, individuals with a bachelor’s degree working full 

time, year round, earn about one-third more 

than individuals who do not finish college 

and earn almost twice as much as individuals 

with a high school diploma.1 A 1999 Department of Education report reviews studies that 

compare those who complete a college degree 

with those with a similar number of credits, 

but who have not earned a college degree.2 On 

the whole, studies indicate that a bachelor’s 

degree adds significantly to a man’s earnings, 

and an associate’s degree adds significantly to 

Alison Aughinbaugh

Alison Aughinbaugh is 

a research economist 

in the Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Division 

of National Longitudinal 

Surveys, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. The views expressed are those of the 

author and do not reflect 

the policies of the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics. E-mail: 

aughinbaugh.alison@

bls.gov 

a woman’s earnings, over having a comparable 

number of college credits.

More than half of those who enter a 4-

year college leave without earning a degree. 

Many of those who drop out from college 

do so in the first year. Dropout rates at the 

end of the freshman year at 4-year colleges 

are in the neighborhood of one-quarter to 

one-third, and the first-year dropout rate at 

2-year colleges is more than 40 percent.3 Not 

surprisingly, then, finishing the first year of 

college is associated with a higher probability 

of graduating: of those who complete their 

first year of college at either a 2-year or 4-

year institution, at least 60 percent go on to 

complete their degree.4

Data

The NLSY97 is a national sample of 8,984 

youths aged 12 to 16 years on December 31, 

1996, who were living in the United States at 

that time. Interviews with these youths have 

been conducted annually, starting in 1997. 

Although employment and labor market outcomes are the focus of the NLSY97, the survey covers a broad array of topics, including 

marriage, fertility, and training, as well as participation in government programs, thus per-
College Students in the NLSY97

34 Monthly Labor Review • August 2008

mitting researchers to examine how different factors are 

related to labor market outcomes. On the topic of schooling, a term-by-term event history is collected in which the 

respondent reports information about all schools that he or 

she has attended since the last interview. The information 

collected includes the level and type of school, the dates of 

the respondent’s attendance, the respondent’s spells of attendance, characteristics of the school, and the reason the 

youth left the school. The NLSY97 assigns an identification 

code to each school that a respondent attends, so that data 

users can tell whether the respondent attends that same 

school in subsequent rounds of the survey. For colleges, 

characteristics such as the degree sought; credits required, 

taken, and earned; the student’s grade point average; tuition; the student’s major; and financial aid are collected 

for each term during which the youth is enrolled.

The analysis that follows uses data collected through 

Round 8 of the survey, at which time the respondents 

ranged in age from 20 to 25 years. Because of the ages of 

the respondents, college-going youths are defined as those 

who attend college and are enrolled in a degree program 

by age 20. Obviously, some individuals enter college for the 

first time at an age older than 20. To capture the extent to 

which respondents start college after age 20, the respondents in the oldest two birth cohorts (those born in 1980 

or 1981 and who were ages 25 and 24, respectively, at the 

last interview) are examined. In the 1980 and 1981 birth 

cohorts, 10.1 percent and 9.0 percent of the respondents 

were observed to have entered college for the first time 

after the month in which they turned 20.5

The sample for this article consists of the 6,580 respondents who were interviewed at age 21 or older, thus 

ensuring that respondents are observed at least 12 months 

after they start college. Throughout the analysis, all data 

are weighted by the sampling weights from Round 1.

Table 1 shows characteristics of the sample, as well as 

Table 1. Selected characteristics, by college attendance at age 20

Level of significance 

 Variable Entire sample No college College of t-test: no college 

versus college

Male............................................................................................... 0.508 0.560 0.458 0.01

Race or ethnicity: 

 Black........................................................................................... .158 .194 .125 .01

 Hispanic.................................................................................... .132 .161 .105 .01

 Mixed......................................................................................... .012 .011 .014 —

 

Age at last interview ............................................................... 22.917 22.936 22.898 —

(1.160) (1.177) (1.143)

Family background: 

 Family income in 19961....................................................... $52,750.80 $39,806.18 $65,133.41 .01

 ($45,134.71) ($33,512.04) ($50,969.84)

 Mother’s highest school grade completed1 ................ 12.935 12.108 13.690 .01

 (3.591) (3.978) (3.004)

 Father’s highest school grade completed1 .................. 13.118 12.172 13.918 .01

 (4.326) (5.308) (3.054)

 Mother’s age at birth of first child1 ................................. 23.113 21.978 24.149 01

 (4.794) (4.644) (4.694)

 Whether respondent lived with both

 parents at age 121 .............................................................. .433 .316 .544 .01

Education: 

 High school grades (four-point scale)1 .......................... 2.831 2.472 3.167 .01

 (.824) (.814) (.678)

 Math-language score on Armed Services

Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB)

1

.......................... 50.489 36.519 62.607 .01

 (29.014) (26.522) (25.410)

Took Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or ACT1...................... .538 .290 .773 .01

 Attended a 2-year college.................................................. .250 .400 ...

 Attended a 4-year college.................................................. .323 .600 ...

Sample size................................................................................. 6,580 3,426 3,154 ...

 

1

 Variable not available to all respondents.

 

 NOTE: Standard deviations are in parentheses. Data are weighted by 

sampling weights from Round 1. Dash indicates not significant.
Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 35

of subsamples, based on whether the respondent attended 

college by age 20. Approximately 49 percent of the sample 

attended college by age 20. Of those who went to college, 

the weighted data show that 40 percent started at a 2-year 

college and 60 percent started at a 4-year college. Male, 

Black, and Hispanic respondents are overrepresented 

among those who did not go to college and underrepresented among those who did go to college. In addition, 

respondents who attended college by age 20 had parents 

who attained more schooling, had higher levels of family 

income, had mothers who were older at the birth of their 

first child, and were more likely to have lived with both of 

their parents at age 12 than their counterparts who had 

not gone to college by age 20.

As one might expect, the high school grades of those 

who go to college differ from the grades of those who do 

not attend college. On a four-point scale where 4.0 corresponds to “mostly A’s,” the average high school grade of 

those who went to college by age 20 was 3.17, which corresponds to better than “mostly B’s.” By contrast, the average high school grade of respondents who did not attend 

college by age 20 was 2.47, or about “half C’s and half B’s.” 

Table 2. Selected means, by type of first college attended

Level of significance of 

 Variable 2-year college 4-year college t-test: 2-year versus 

4-year college

Male........................................................................................... 0.474 0.447 —

Race or ethnicity: 

 Black....................................................................................... .137 .117 —

 Hispanic................................................................................ .158 .070 .01

Mixed..................................................................................... .016 .012 —

 

Age at last interview ........................................................... 22.914 22.888 —

 (1.141) (1.144)

Family background: 

 Family income in 19961................................................... $50,728.40 $74,800.22 .01

 ($39,596.13) ($55,285.43)

 Mother’s highest school grade completed1 ............ 12.811 14.273 .01

 (3.356) (2.586)

 Father’s highest school grade completed1 .............. 12.860 14.576 .01

 (2.945) (2.933)

 Mother’s age at first birth1 ............................................. 23.183 24.785 .01

 (4.725) (4.563)

 Whether respondent lived with both

 parents at age 121 .......................................................... .443 .612 .01

Education:............................................................................... 

 High school grades (four-point scale)1 ...................... 2.850 3.378 .01

 (.700) (.574)

 Math-language score on Armed Services

Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB)

1

...................... 49.427 70.945 .01

 (24.394) (22.323)

 Took Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or ACT1................ .560 .915 .01

 

 Months in college ............................................................. 16.866 31.593 .01

 (13.404) (17.871)

 Number of full-time terms............................................. 2.617 5.811 .01

 (2.211) (3.350)

 Number of part-time terms........................................... 1.112 .450 .01

 (1.834) (.972)

 Subsequently attended a 4-year college.................. .244

 Earned an associate’s degree........................................ .142 .020 .01

 Earned a bachelor’s degree........................................... .035 .263 .01

Sample size............................................................................. 1,345 1,809 ...

 

1

 Variable not available to all respondents.

 

 NOTE: Standard deviations are in parentheses. Data are weighted by sampling weights from Round 1. Dash indicates not significant.
College Students in the NLSY97

36 Monthly Labor Review • August 2008

Similarly, the average percentile composite score from the 

language and math sections of the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) was 70 percent higher 

for those who went to college (62.6), compared with those 

who did not (36.5).

Similar differences emerge in table 2, which compares 

those who started college at a 2-year institution with those 

who started college at a 4-year institution. These statistics 

show that both the background characteristics and the 

high school achievement of students who initially entered 

2-year colleges differ from those who initially entered 4-

year colleges. Respondents who first went to a 4-year college were more apt to be female, and less apt to be Black 

or Hispanic, compared with those who began at a 2-year 

college. Those who started college at a 4-year school came 

from families that had higher levels of 1996 income, better educated parents, and mothers who, at the time of their 

first birth, were about 11⁄2 years older than the mothers of 

those who started college at a 2-year school. In addition, 

they were about 35 percentage points more likely to have 

lived with both of their parents at age 12. High school 

grades were higher for respondents who initially entered 

a 4-year college (3.39), as opposed to those who started 

at a 2-year college (2.86). Similarly, the average mathlanguage composite score on the ASVAB was 42 percent 

higher for those who started at a 4-year college (a score of 

70.6), compared with those who started at a 2-year college 

(a score of 49.7).

Of those who first attended a 2-year college, 24 percent 

attended a 4-year college later. In addition, of the students 

who initially attended a 2-year college, 14 percent earned 

an associate’s degree and 4 percent earned a bachelor’s 

degree. Among respondents who began at a 4-year college, 2 percent earned an associate’s degree and 26 percent 

earned a bachelor’s degree.

Table 3 touches on the issue of college attrition by examining selected characteristics of respondents based on 

the length of time they are enrolled at the first college they 

attend. Spells of college attendance that are ongoing are 

examined separately. The first three columns of the table 

present the characteristics of those who go to a 2-year college, by length of enrollment; the first two columns present results for those whose spells at the initial college are 

completed, and the third column presents results for those 

whose spells are ongoing. The results for respondents who 

no longer are enrolled at the first college they attended are 

presented separately, based on whether the spell is less than 

12 months long or is 12 or more months. The ongoing 

spells are not broken down on the basis of length, because 

very few (one respondent for 2-year colleges and three for 

4-year colleges) are shorter than 12 months. The fourth 

through sixth columns of the table present parallel information for those who start college at a 4-year institution.

Among those who start college at a 2-year school, students who stay for less than 12 months are, on average, at 

the school for just under 6 months, while students who 

are at the school for 12 or more months stay at the college 

for about 24 months, on average. For those with ongoing 

spells of attendance that are at least 12 months, the number of months enrolled is longer—about 37 months, on 

average. Youths who have short spells at the 2-year college 

where they start are less likely to earn either an associate’s 

or a bachelor’s degree at any college, compared with those 

who remain at the 2-year college for a full year. With respect to basic demographics, family background, and high 

school grades, those who leave during their first year are 

similar to those who complete their first year and to those 

still enrolled at the initial 2-year college. 

Among respondents who start college at a 4-year college by age 20, those who stay for at least 12 months 

are less likely to be male, Black, or Hispanic, compared 

with those who leave school in less than a year. Moreover, those who are enrolled at the college for at least 

a year are more advantaged in that their families had 

higher levels of income in 1996 and they were more 

apt to live with both biological parents. However, students who leave during their first year and those who 

complete their first year are similar with respect to the 

educational attainment of their parents and the ages of 

their mothers at first birth. Together, tables 1 through 3 

demonstrate that the decision to go to college and the 

decision to remain for the first year in the school where 

one begins are related to a number of the respondent’s 

characteristics.

Regression results

To further examine how the respondent’s characteristics 

are related to his or her decision to go to and remain in 

college, a series of logit equations is estimated. Let

where is a continuous latent variable underlying Ci that indicates the respondent’s decision about college, Xi

 is a set of exogenous 

individual characteristics, Xfi is a set of family characteristics, Xhsi is a vector describing high school outcomes, is 

the individual error term, and the are the parameters 

1 2 3 , C X X X i i fi hsi i D  D  D  H

α's

i ε

* 1 if 0 and 0 otherwise C C C i ! i i

* Ci ,
Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 37

Table 3. Selected characteristics, by time at first college

2-year college 4-year college

Completed— Completed—

Less than At least Ongoing Less than At least Ongoing

12 months 12 months 12 months 12 months

Male.............................................................................................. 0.481 0.455 0.524 0.486 0.415 0.467

Race or ethnicity: 

 Black.......................................................................................... .141 .131 .146 .150 .101 .116

 Hispanic................................................................................... .165 .143 .200 .095 .057 .070

 

Family background: 

 Family income in 19961...................................................... $48,680.33 $52,947.07 $51,708.48 $63,906.39 $79,005.51 $76,589.12

 ($41,394.66) ($37,878.00) ($35,852.12) ($45,595.79) ($56,269.78) ($59,371.76)

 Mother’s highest school grade completed1 .............. 12.941 12.742 12.423 13.961 14.254 14.545

 (4.094) (2.351) (2.958) (2.436) (2.675) (2.528)

 Father’s highest school grade completed1 ................. 12.836 12.946 12.562 14.125 14.599 14.884

 (3.134) (2.670) (3.179) (2.862) (2.876) (3.030)

 Mother’s age at first birth1 ................................................ 22.551 23.646 24.385 24.182 24.775 25.256

 (4.355) (4.913) (5.214) (4.454) (4.539) (4.628)

 Whether respondent lived with both

 parents at age 121 ............................................................. .433 .450 .468 .519 .630 .655

 

Education:

 High school grades (four-point scale)1 ......................... 2.736 2.958 2.964 3.159 3.440 3.450

 (.709) (.683) (.612) (.616) (.557) (.523)

 Math-language score on Armed

 Services Vocational Aptitude

 Battery (ASVAB)

1 ................................................................... 47.567 52.686 43.174 65.379 73.097 71.785

 (24.401) (24.446) (21.490) (23.511) (21.377) (22.155)

 Took Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) or ACT 1.................. .520 .613 .522 .881 .943 .899

 Months in college ............................................................... 5.912 24.570 37.238 6.553 37.096 41.912

 (3.082) (9.693) (13.085) (2.683) (13.982) (11.038)

 Number of full-time terms................................................ 1.363 3.484 3.983 2.063 6.702 7.029

 (1.318) (2.202) (2.577) (1.931) (3.167) (2.408)

 Number of part-time terms.............................................. .725 1.291 1.976 .281 .505 .483

 (1.345) (1.990) (2.426) (.673) (1.022) (1.052)

 

 Earned an associate’s degree........................................... .057 .242 .123 .037 .025 .000

 Earned a bachelor’s degree.............................................. .018 .061 .001 .117 .477 .040

Sample size................................................................................ 636 593 115 434 821 554

 

1

 Variable not available for all respondents.

NOTE: Standard deviations are in parentheses. Data are weighted by 

sampling weights from Round 1. Among 2-year-college students, only 

one respondent was in an ongoing spell shorter than 12 months. Among 

4-year college students, only three respondents were in ongoing spells 

shorter than 12 months.

Variable

to be estimated. Four specifications are estimated for each 

outcome: the first controls only for Xi, the second controls 

for Xi and Xfi, the third for Xi, and Xhsi, and the fourth for 

Xi, Xfi, and Xhsi.

Four dependent variables, each of which measures an 

aspect of going to college, are examined: (1) whether the 

respondent attends college by age 20, (2) whether the respondent goes to a 2-year college, a 4-year college, or no 

college, by age 20, (3) for those who go to a 2-year college, 

whether the respondent remains at that school for at least 

12 months, and (4) for those who go to a 4-year college, 

whether the respondent remains at that school for at least 

12 months.

The decision to go to college. Table 4 presents estimates of 

college attendance by age 20. For each of the four specifi-
College Students in the NLSY97

38 Monthly Labor Review • August 2008

cations, both coefficient estimates from the relevant logit 

equation and the corresponding marginal-effect estimates 

are presented. In the first specification, being male, Black, 

or Hispanic reduces the probability of going to college by 

at least 10 percentage points. After family background is 

controlled for, the estimated effects of race and ethnicity 

are indistinguishable from zero. Once controls for high 

school achievement are included, the indicator for Black 

becomes positive and significantly related to college attendance. With the full set of controls included in the 

estimation, the estimated effects of race increase further 

and indicate that Blacks and Hispanics are 11 percentage points and 8 percentage points more likely to attend 

college by age 20 than their white counterparts. Across 

Table 4. Estimates of college attendance by age 20

Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3 Specification 4

Estimate Marginal Estimate Marginal Estimate Marginal Estimate Marginal 

effect effect effect effect

Male............................................................. 1–0.413 1–0.103 1–0.503 1–0.125 1–0.183 1–0.046 1–0.268 1–0.067

 (.056) (.014) (.061) (.015) (.064) (.016) (.066) (.017)

Race or ethnicity: 

 Black......................................................... 1

–.621 1–.153 –.006 –.002 2.185 2.046 1.461 1.113

 (.069) (.017) (.081) (.020) (.080) (.020) (.089) (.021)

 Hispanic.................................................. 1–.595 1–.147 .120 .030 –.063 –.016 1.322 1.080

 (.078) (.019) (.095) (.024) (.093) (.023) (.107) (.026)

Family background: 

 Mother’s highest school grade

 completed ....................................... — — 1.135 1.034 — — 1.090 1.022

 (.016) (.004) (.017) (.004)

 Father’s highest school grade

 completed ....................................... — — 1.123 1.031 — — 1.082 1.020

 (.014) (.004) (.015) (.004)

 Log(family income in 1996)............. — — 1.292 1.073 — — 1.203 1.051

 (.047) (.012) (.047) (.012)

 Mother’s age at first birth................. — — 1.042 1.011 — — 1.027 1.007

 (.007) (.002) (.008) (.002) 

 Whether respondent lived 

 with both parents at age 12 ... — — 1.572 1.141 — — 1.394 .098

 (.070) (.017) (.076) (.019)

Education: 

 Grades in high school: 

 Mostly D’s and below...................... — — — — 1

–2.905 1–.477 1–2.545 1–.454

 (.305) (.019) (.310) (.025)

 Half C’s and half D’s........................ — — — — 1–2.357 1–.448 1–2.116 1–.423

 (.194) (.021) (.200) (.025)

 Mostly C’s........................................... — — — — 1–1.417 1–.323 1–1.243 1–.290

 (.141) (.027) (.146) (.030)

 Half B’s and half C’s.......................... — — — — 1–1.119 1–.269 1–.943 1–.229

 (.125) (.028) (.132) (.030)

 Mostly B’s......................... — — — — 1–.521 1–.129 1–.408 1–.102

 (.130) (.032) (.137) (.034)

 Half A’s and half B’s........................ — — — — –.238 –.060 –.126 –.031

 

(.126) (.032) (.131) (.033)

Math-language score on Armed 

 

1

 Significant at the 0.01 level.

2

 Significant at the 0.05 level.

NOTE: Standard errors are in parentheses. Variables included in the estimation, but not shown in the tables, are year of birth, whether the respondent lived in an urban area at age 12, and region of the country where the 

respondent lived at age 12. Data are weighted by sampling weights used in 

Round 1. Dash indicates covariate not included in specification.

Variable

 Services Vocational Aptitude 

 

Battery (ASVAB)................................. — — — — 1.027 1.007 1.021 1.005

 (.001) (.000) (.002) (.000)

Sample size = 6,580 
Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 39

all four specifications, the estimates indicate that being 

male lowers the probability of attending college, although 

the estimated marginal effect falls by roughly 35 percent 

from specification 1 to specification 4. After the full set 

of regressors is controlled for, men are estimated to be 7 

percentage points less likely than women to go to college.

The regression results show that youths from more 

advantaged family backgrounds are more likely to go to 

college. The probability of attending college by age 20 

increases with the educational attainment of both the 

respondent’s mother and the respondent’s father. In the 

fourth specification, an additional grade attained by one’s 

mother is associated with a 2.2-percentage-point increase 

in the probability of going to college and an additional 

grade attained by one’s father is associated with a 2.0-

percentage-point increase. A 1-percent increase in level 

of family income is associated with about a 5-percentage-point increase in the probability of attending college. 

In addition, the older the respondent’s mother was at the 

time of her first birth, the more likely the respondent is 

to have attended college by age 20. Those respondents 

who lived with both of their parents at age 12 are 10 

percentage points more likely to attend college, after 

measures of the youth’s achievement during high school 

are included.

Not surprisingly, the likelihood of attending college is 

strongly related to high school outcomes. The chance that 

a respondent goes to college by age 20 increases with his 

or her high school grades. For instance, those who report 

having earned “mostly B’s” in high school are about 10 

percentage points less likely to go to college by age 20 than 

students who report having earned “mostly A’s.” For those 

who earn “mostly C’s,” the differential is greater: students 

who earn “mostly Cs” in high school are 29 percentage 

points less likely to attend college than those with “mostly 

A’s.” In addition, higher scores on the math and language 

sections of the ASVAB are associated with a greater probability of going to college. Specifically, for every percentage 

point that one’s ASVAB score increases, the probability of 

going to college increases by about 0.5 percentage point. 

For the average youth, a one-standard-deviation increase 

in ASVAB score (29.0 points) translates into more than a 

14-percentage-point increase in the probability of going 

to college.

Table 5 presents estimates of marginal effects from a 

multinomial logit equation where attending a 2-year college and attending a 4-year college are separate categories. 

The results shown are consistent with those listed in table 

4, but demonstrate in general that the estimated effects 

of the control variables are larger for 4-year college attendance than for 2-year college attendance.

In the first specification, the impact of each independent variable is larger for the probability of going to a 4-

year college than for the probability of going to a 2-year 

college. For example, men are 8 percentage points less 

likely to go to a 4-year college and 3 percentage points 

less likely to go to a 2-year college than women are. With 

the full set of controls, men are about equally less likely 

than women to attend a 2-year and a 4-year college, with 

estimated marginal effects of being male in the neighborhood of 3 percentage points to 4 percentage points. In 

contrast, the impact of being Hispanic is positive and significant for attending a 2-year college in every specification. When the probability of attending a 4-year college 

is estimated in the first and third specifications, the effect 

of being Hispanic is negative and significant. However, 

after controlling for family background, the effect of being 

Hispanic on the probability of attending a 4-year college 

is indistinguishable from zero.

Parental characteristics affect the decision to attend a 

4-year college. As with the bivariate logit estimates, the 

probability of attending a 4-year college increases with 

the mother’s education, the father’s education, family income, the mother’s age at first birth, and the family structure at age 12. The estimated marginal effects of family 

background characteristics are larger for 4-year schools 

than for 2-year schools. Moreover, none of the variables 

describing family background are statistically significant 

in explaining the decision to attend a 2-year college.

Low high school grades (“mostly D’s or lower,” “half 

C’s and half D’s”) decrease the probability of going to either a 2-year or a 4-year college. In contrast, higher high 

school grades (earning “half A’s and half B’s” and “mostly 

B’s”), compared with the omitted category of “mostly A’s,” 

are associated with a higher probability that one attends a 

2-year college, and a lower probability that one attends a 

4-year college, by age 20. The magnitude of the estimates 

of high school grades is essentially unchanged between 

specifications 3 and 4 when the controls for family background are added. Although ASVAB scores are significantly related to attending a 2-year college and attending 

a 4-year college, the estimated effects are quite small for 

2-year college attendance (0.001), but significantly larger 

for 4-year college attendance (0.005).

Completing the first year of college. Table 6 presents estimates of whether a student who starts college at a 2-year 

institution is enrolled at the initial school for at least 12 

months. Leaving a 2-year college less than a year after 

starting is unrelated to the sex and race of the student. Of 
College Students in the NLSY97

40 Monthly Labor Review • August 2008

Table 5. Estimates of whether one attends no college, a 2–year college, or a 4–year college by age 20, multinomial logit, 

 marginal effects 

Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3 Specification 4

 Variable 2–year 4–year 2–year 4–year 2–year 4–year 2–year 4–year

college college college college college college college college

Male....................................................................... 1–0.029 1–0.074 1–0.034 1–0.092 1–0.035 –0.012 1–0.040 2–0.028

 (.011) (.013) (.012) (.013) (.013) (.013) (.014) (.012)

Race or ethnicity: 

 

 Black................................................................... 2–.030 1–.121 –.023 .026 2–.038 1.090 2–.036 1.166

 (.013) (.014) (.016) (.020) (.016) (.019) (.018) (.024)

 Hispanic............................................................ 2.038 1–.182 2.052 2–.043 2.045 1–.067 2.049 .015

 (.016) (.014) (.020) (.021) (.019) (.017) (.022) (.022)

Family background: 

 Mother’s highest school grade

 completed .................................................... — — –.001 1

.037 — — .000 1.022

 (.003) (.004) (.003) (.003)

 Father’s highest school grade

 completed .................................................... — — .000 1

.030 — — .003 1.016

 (.003) (.003) (.003) (.003)

 Log(family income in 1996)....................... — — –.003 1.084 — — –.002 1.058

 (.009) (.012) (.010) (.010)

 Mother’s age at first birth........................... — — .002 1.008 — — .003 1.004

 (.001) (.002) (.002) (.001)

Whether respondent lived with both

 parents at age 12........................................ — — .016 1

.121 — — .026 1.066

 (.015) (.016) (.016) (.015)

Education:

 Grades in high school: 

 Mostly D’s and below................................ — — — — 1–.145 1–.252 1–.133 1–.231

 (.031) (.009) (.037) (.009)

 Half C’s and half D’s................................... — — — — 1–.103 1–.246 1–.098 1–.223

 (.029) (.011) (.033) (.011)

 Mostly C’s...................................................... — — — — .032 1–.231 .039 1–.209

 (.034) (.012) (.036) (.012)

 Half B’s and half C’s.................................... — — — — .043 1–.208 .049 1–.179

 (.031) (.015) (.033) (.015)

 Mostly B’s...................................................... — — — — 2.078 1–.116 2.080 1–.096

 (.034) (.015) (.036) (.016)

 Half A’s and half B’s.................................... — — — — 1.095 1–.079 1.101 1–.060

 (.032) (.016) (.033) (.017)

 Math–language score on Armed

 Services Vocational Aptitude................. — — — — 1.001 1.006 2.001 1.005

 Battery (ASVAB)........................................... (.000) (.000) (.000) (.000)

Sample size = 6,580

 

 1 Significant at the 0.01 level.

2

 Significant at the 0.05 level.

NOTE: Standard errors are in parentheses. Variables included in the estimation, but not shown in the tables, are year of birth, whether the respondent lived in an urban area at age 12, and region of the country where the 

respondent lived at age 12. Data are weighted by sampling weights used in 

Round 1. Dash indicates covariate not included in specification.

the regressors included to control for family background, 

only family income and mother’s age at first birth are 

significantly related to the decision to stay at the initial 

2-year college, with increases in either raising the chance 

of remaining in school.

High school grades also are associated with the probability of remaining at a 2-year college a year after beginning there. The estimates show that, compared with 

grades of mostly A’s, grades of half B’s and half C’s or 

lower decrease the probability of remaining enrolled at 

the school a year later by 15 percentage points to 30 percentage points. The specification that controls for basic 
Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 41

Table 6. Estimates of whether one remains at a 2-year college for at least 12 months

Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3 Specification 4

Variable Coefficient Marginal Coefficient Marginal Coefficient Marginal Coefficient Marginal 

estimate effect estimate effect estimate effect estimate effect

Male........................................................... –0.056 –0.014 –0.086 –0.021 0.047 0.012 0.024 0.006

 (.122) (.031) (.125) (.031) (.127) (.032) (.130) (.032)

Race or ethnicity: 

 Black....................................................... –.095 –.024 .151 .037 .115 .029 .350 .087

 (.156) (.039) (.176) (.044) (.175) (.043) (.191) (.046)

 Hispanic................................................ –.110 –.028 –.108 –.027 –.005 –.012 –.003 –.001

 (.160) (.040) (.183) (.046) (.167) (.042) (.190) (.047)

Family background: 

 Mother’s highest school grade

 completed ........................................ — — –.060 –.015 — — –.056 –.014

 (.030) (.008) (.031) (.008)

 Father’s highest school grade

 completed ........................................ — — .005 .001 — — –.005 –.001

 (.029) (.007) (.030) (.007)

 Log(family income in 1996)........... — — 1.165 1.041 — — 1.176 1.044

 (.080) (.020) (.083) (.021)

 Mother’s age at first birth............... — — 2.059 2.015 — — 2.056 2.014

 (.015) (.040) (.015) (.004)

 Whether respondent lived with 

 both parents at age 12................. — — –.030 –.008 — — –.079 –.020

 (.141) (.035) (.144) (.036)

Education:

 Grades in high school: 

 Mostly D’s and below.................... — — — — 1

–1.409 2–.311 1–1.454 1–.318

 (.635) (.106) (.667) (.109)

 Half C’s and half D’s....................... — — — — 1–1.092 2–.255 2–1.113 2–.259

 (.403) (.080) (.393) (.078)

 Mostly C’s.......................................... — — — — 2–.793 2–.193 2–.837 2–.203

 (.300) (.069) (.299) (.068)

 Half B’s and half C’s........................ — — — — 1–.628 1–.155 1–.666 1–.165

 (.273) (.066) (.270) (.065)

 Mostly B’s.......................................... — — — — –.319 –.080 –.390 –.097

 (.281) (.070) (.281) (.069)

 Half A’s and half B’s........................ — — — — –.143 –.036 –.144 –.036

 (.267) (.067) (.264) (.066)

 Math–language score on Armed

 Services Vocational Aptitude

 Battery (ASVAB).................................. — — — — .004 .001 .004 .001

 (.003) (.001) (.003) (.001)

Sample Size = 1,345

demographic characteristics, family background, and high 

school grades indicates that ASVAB scores are not related 

to the probability of remaining at a 2-year college for at 

least 1 year.

Table 7 presents estimates of whether a student who 

starts college at a 4-year institution stays at the initial 

school for at least 12 months. In contrast to table 6, which 

analyzes remaining at a 2-year college, table 7 indicates 

that race is significantly related to the probability of remaining at an initial 4-year college. (See specification 1.) 

1

 Significant at the 0.05 level.

2

 Significant at the 0.01 level.

NOTE: Standard errors are in parentheses. Variables included in the estimation, but not shown in the tables, are year of birth, whether the respondent lived in an urban area at age 12, and region of the country where the 

respondent lived at age 12. Data are weighted by sampling weights used in 

Round 1. Dash indicates covariate not included in specification.
College Students in the NLSY97

42 Monthly Labor Review • August 2008

Table 7. Estimates of whether one remains at a 4–year college for at least 12 months

Specification 1 Specification 2 Specification 3 Specification 4

 Variable Estimate

Marginal

Estimate Marginal Estimate Marginal Estimate Marginal of effect of effect of effect of effect 

coefficient coefficient coefficient coefficient

Male....................................................................... –0.207 –0.037 1–0.265 1–0.046 –0.084 –0.014 –0.136 –0.023

 (.121) (.022) (.123) (.022) (.126) (.022) (.127) (.022)

Race or ethnicity:

 

Black................................................................... 2–.467 2–.090 –.195 –.035 –.104 –.018 .075 .013

 (.155) (.032) (.184) (.034) (.167) (.030) (.193) (.032)

 Hispanic............................................................ 1–.515 1–.102 –.325 –.061 –.288 –.053 –.187 –.033

 (.205) (.044) (.228) (.046) (.200) (.039) (.218) (.040)

Family background: 

 Mother’s highest school grade

 completed ................................................. — — .012 .002 — — .008 .001

 (.029) (.005) (.029) (.005)

 Father’s highest school grade

 completed .................................................... — — .024 .004 — — .007 .001

 (.027) (.005) (.027) (.005)

 Log(family income in 1996)....................... — — 1.218 1.038 — — 1.217 1.037

 (.092) (.016) (.095) (.016)

 Mother’s age at first birth........................... — — .015 .003 — — .014 .002

 (.015) (.003) (.015) (.002)

 Whether respondent lived with both

 parents at age 12........................................ — — 1.375 1.067 — — 1.312 1.054

 (.145) (.026) (.145) (.026)

Education:

 Grades in high school: 

 Mostly D’s and below................................ (3) (3) (3) (3)

 

 Half C’s and half D’s................................... — — — — 2–2.408 2–.538 2–2.423 1–.540

 (.847) (.156) (.897) (.166)

 Mostly C’s...................................................... — — — — 2–1.477 2–.329 2–1.499 2–.332

 (.325) (.079) (.338) (.082)

 Half B’s and half C’s.................................... — — — — 2–1.117 2–.232 2–1.078 2–.221

 (.226) (.053) (.230) (.053)

 Mostly B’s...................................................... — — — — 2–.775 2–.150 2–.763 2–.146

 (.198) (.042) (.203) (.042)

 Half A’s and Half B’s.................................... — — — — 2–.625 2–.113 2–.621 2–.111

 (.177) (.033) (.179) (.033)

 Math–language score on Armed

 Services Vocational Aptitude

 Battery (ASVAB).............................................. — — — — .005 .001 .003 .001

 (.003) (.001) (.003) (.001)

Sample size = 1,808

Although the standard errors in the two tables are comparable, the estimates of the marginal effects are at least 3 

times larger in table 7 than in table 6. In particular, Black 

and Hispanic students are, respectively, 10 percentage 

points and 9 percentage points less likely to be at the 4-

year college a year later. These estimated marginal effects 

of being Black and of being Hispanic fall by more than 80 

percent between specification 1 and specification 4 and 

can no longer be distinguished from zero after the first 

specification. 

As is the case with attrition from 2-year colleges, 

most of the variables describing family background are 

unrelated to remaining at a 4-year college a year later. 

The two exceptions are family income in 1996 and living with both parents at age 12. The third and fourth 

specifications show that lower high school grades are 

1 Significant at the 0.05 level.

2

 Significant at the 0.01 level.

3

 Sample size too small for publication standards.

NOTE: Standard errors are in parentheses. Variables included in the estimation, but not shown in the tables, are year of birth, whether the respondent lived in an urban area at age 12, and region of the country where the 

respondent lived at age 12. Data are weighted by sampling weights used in 

Round 1. Dash indicates covariate not included in specification.
Monthly Labor Review • August 2008 43

associated with a lower probability of being enrolled at 

the 4-year college a year after starting. For 4-year college attrition, any report of high school grades lower 

than mostly A’s is associated with a lower chance of being enrolled a year after entering. The estimated effects 

of grades on completing a first year at a 4-year college 

are larger and have smaller standard errors, compared 

with the effect of high school grades on completing the 

first year at a 2-year college. By contrast, a student’s 

ASVAB score has no significant effect on whether he or 

she completes a year of college. In other words, whereas 

ASVAB scores are associated with the decision to go to 

college, they are unrelated to whether one completes the 

first year of college.

COMPARISONS OF MEAN CHARACTERISTICS across 

groups, as well as regression results, indicate that college 

decisions are related to observable characteristics of respondents. As many recent studies have shown, compared 

with their female counterparts, males are less likely to go 

to college and less likely to go to 4-year colleges. In addiNotes

ACKNOWLEDGMENT: I thank Chuck Pierret and Donna Rothstein 

for helpful comments.

1 Jennifer Cheeseman Day and Eric C. Newburger, “The Big Payoff: 

Educational Attainment and Synthetic Estimates of Work-Life Earnings,” Current Populations Reports P23–210 (U. S. Census Bureau, 2002).

 

2 College for All? Is There Too Much Emphasis on Getting a 4-Year College Degree? (U.S. Department of Education, January 1999).

3 Ibid.; see also Laura J. Horn, Stopouts or Stayouts? Undergraduates 

Who Leave College in Their First Year (U.S. Department of Education, 

tion, respondents from more advantaged backgrounds and 

those who performed better in high school are more likely 

to go to college and to start college at a 4-year school.

These estimates indicate that the basic demographic 

characteristics of sex, race, and ethnicity, in addition to family 

background characteristics and scores on the ASVAB, affect 

the decision to start college, but are unrelated to the probability of finishing one’s first year. By contrast, high school 

grades explain both the decision to go to college and the decision to stay in college during one’s first year.

Admittedly, the dependent variables examined here do 

not measure the concept of most interest: who goes to 

college and who completes college. These outcomes are 

not yet observed because the youngest NLSY97 respondents are not yet old enough to have completed college and 

in some cases will not even have begun college. However, 

who attends college by age 20 is a good proxy for who 

goes to college, based on both the older birth years in the 

NLSY97 and the results of past research. Similarly, who 

stays in college for a year is a good indication of who will 

go on to complete the degree.

National Center for Education Statistics, 1998).

4 Horn, Stopouts or Stayouts?

5 Stephen V. Cameron and James J. Heckman, “The Dynamics 

of Educational Attainment for Black, Hispanic, and White Males,” 

Journal of Political Economy, June 2001, pp. 455–99, note that, in the 

NLSY79, a data set composed of individuals born from 1957 to 1964, 

most college entry occurs immediately after the completion of high 

school: “Among high school graduates 82% of whites and Hispanics 

and 73% of blacks who ever enter college do so within a year of high 

school graduation” (p. 42).