TEXT

 
 
                                       FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.
                                       FRIDAY, DECEMBER 8, 1995
 
 
 
           ___________________________________________________________
           Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
           press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
           understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
           Eastern time.  ____________________________________________
 
 
 
                                   Statement of
 
                               Katharine G. Abraham
                                   Commissioner
                            Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
                                    before the
 
                             Joint Economic Committee
 
                              UNITED STATES CONGRESS
 
                                 December 8, 1995
 
 
 
 
 
           Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:
 
                I appreciate this opportunity to comment on the labor
 
           market data released this morning.
 
                Payroll employment rose by 166,000 in November, as job
 
           growth in the service-producing sector of the economy more
 
           than offset continued declines in manufacturing.  The
 
           unemployment rate was little changed at 5.6 percent.
 
                Although the reported November job growth is somewhat
 
           above the average monthly gain since March of this year, the
 
           increase was exaggerated by two technical factors.  First,
 
           the timing of the November survey reference period resulted
 
           in there being 5 weeks between the October and November
 
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           surveys, instead of the more usual 4-week interval.  The
 
           extra week led to our picking up more of the seasonal
 
           employment changes in certain industries, particularly the
 
           buildup in retail trade, than was expected by our seasonal
 
           adjustment process.  We estimate that the net effect was to
 
           add about 25,000 to the over-the-month change in total
 
           nonfarm employment.
 
                Second, as is our normal practice, with the release of
 
           November payroll data, we have introduced new seasonal
 
           factors for the period from November through next April.
 
           While the November payroll survey estimates reflect these
 
           new factors, data for prior months have not yet been
 
           reseasonalized.  The effects of this updating in seasonal
 
           factors normally are minimal.  Had recalculated factors also
 
           been used to adjust this October's data, however, the total
 
           increase in payroll employment between October and November
 
           would have been 44,000 smaller.
 
                Taking these two factors into account, the November
 
           payroll employment increase appears to be roughly in line
 
           with the gains evidenced in recent months.
 
                Turning to the industry employment detail, the largest
 
           increase occurred in the services industry.  There were
 
           strong gains in health services and in engineering and
 
           management services, but employment in business services
 
           showed virtually no growth for the second month in a row, as
 
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           continued declines in its help supply services component
 
           substantially offset gains among other business services.
 
                The number of employees engaged in wholesale trade
 
           expanded, with the increase concentrated among durable goods
 
           distributors.  In transportation and public utilities,
 
           employment rose in November, mostly due to job growth in
 
           transportation.  The finance industry added jobs over the
 
           month, as low interest rates continued to boost home
 
           mortgage activity.  In retail trade, employment rose by
 
           74,000, but most of this apparent gain reflected the
 
           technical factors I have already discussed.
 
                In the goods-producing sector, employment in
 
           manufacturing fell by 32,000 in November, as the industry
 
           continued to shed workers.  Since its recent peak in March
 
           of this year, the manufacturing industry has lost about
 
           220,000 jobs (after adjusting for about 35,000 factory
 
           workers who recently went off payrolls because of strikes).
 
           An unusually large November decline occurred in auto
 
           manufacturing, where several plants have been idled because
 
           of excessive inventories.  The apparel industry continued
 
           its long-term pattern of job loss; over the past year, the
 
           job total in the industry has fallen by 86,000.  Small over-
 
           the-month declines occurred in many other manufacturing
 
           industries.  In contrast, employment in industrial machinery
 
           continued to expand in November, and this industry has added
 
 
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           55,000 jobs over the past year.  The manufacturing workweek
 
           and overtime hours were unchanged in November.
 
                Construction employment held fairly steady over the
 
           month, as colder-than-usual weather in the eastern half of
 
           the country hindered some building activity.  The underlying
 
           trend in the industry in recent months has been one of
 
           modest expansion.  In mining, employment continued to
 
           decline in November, mostly in oil and gas extraction.
 
                I also should point out that the hourly earnings series
 
           from our payroll survey edged down in November, after having
 
           posted strong gains in 4 of the prior 5 months.  Over the
 
           year, hourly earnings have increased about 3 percent.
 
                As I noted at the beginning of my remarks, the
 
           unemployment rate was little changed in November at 5.6
 
           percent.  The jobless rate has held at or near its present
 
           level for much of this year, and the unemployment rates for
 
           major worker groups have followed a similar pattern.  Most
 
           other labor market indicators from the household survey
 
           showed little over-the-month change.  The survey estimate of
 
           total employment did decline in November, but this series
 
           often fluctuates considerably from month to month, and we do
 
           not attach much significance to this movement.
 
                Before closing, I would like to comment briefly on the
 
           impact of the recent federal government shutdown on the
 
           November data.  Due to the timing and nature of our
 
           collection procedures, the federal shutdown had no effect on
 
 
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           this month's establishment survey data.  In the household
 
           survey, however, which is conducted for us by the Bureau of
 
           the Census, data collection operations were delayed by
 
           several days because workers there were furloughed.  It is
 
           only because of extraordinary efforts on the part of Census
 
           Bureau employees upon their return to work that enough
 
           household interviews were completed to provide us with an
 
           adequate sample.  We do not believe that the quality of the
 
           household survey data for November was seriously compromised
 
           by the delayed collection.
 
                In summary, overall employment rose in November, with
 
           gains occurring in the service-producing industries.
 
           Manufacturing employment, however, continued to decline.
 
           The unemployment rate was basically unchanged at 5.6
 
           percent.
 
 
                My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your
 
           questions.