Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 3

Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

Projections of the labor force to 2050: 

a visual essay

Mitra Toossi

The U.S. labor force, which consists of people who 

are either employed or actively seeking employment, has undergone tremendous change in the 

last six decades. Over this period, the high labor force 

growth rate of the 1970s to 1990s was replaced by a 

much lower growth rate since 2000. Major demographic 

factors—including slower population growth, the aging of the U.S. population, the leveling off of the labor 

force participation rate, and increasing diversity within 

the population—have been responsible for these changes. BLS long-term projections point to a slower rate of 

growth of the labor force over the next four decades.

A series of charts in this visual essay presents an overview of the trends in the civilian labor force and civilian 

labor force participation rates for a period of 100 years 

from 1950 to 2050. These charts highlight the dramatic 

changes that have affected the labor force in the past 

and how these changes will shape the labor force in the 

coming years. The historical 1950–2011 demographic 

data are based on the Current Population Survey.1

 The 

2008 National Population Projections have been used 

as the basis for the BLS long-term labor force projections.2

 These labor force projections are a continuation 

of the 2010–2020 medium-term labor force projections, 

which can be found on the BLS website at http://www.

bls.gov/opub/mlr/2012/01/art3full.pdf.

The slower growth of the labor force over the past 

two decades, especially since 2000, is mainly the result 

of two intertwined factors:

• Slower growth of the population. Population is the 

single most important factor in determining the 

size and composition of the labor force. The slower 

growth of the population is primarily the result of the 

aging of the U.S. population.

• A downward trend in the labor force participation 

rate. After nearly five decades of steady growth, the 

overall participation rate—defined as the proportion 

of the civilian noninstitutional population in the labor force—peaked at an annual average of 67.1 percent for each year from 1997 to 2000. Since then, 

the labor force participation rate declined gradually, 

falling to 64.1 percent by 2011, a drop of 3.0 percentage points. By September 2012, the rate had dropped 

further, to 63.6 percent.

Some important factors that have reduced the labor 

force participation rate are the following:

• Participation of the baby boomers. The overall labor 

force participation rate is on the decline as roughly 

77 million baby boomers gradually move from the 

prime age group of 25-to-54-year-olds with its high 

participation rate (above 80 percent) to older age 

groups with much lower participation rates (around 

40 percent for the age group 55 and older).

• The declining participation rate for the 25-to-54 age 

group. Although this group exhibits the strongest 

attachment to the labor market, the participation rate 

for this age group has been declining since 2000, and 

the rate is projected to decline further in the future.

• The declining participation rates for teenagers and young 

adults. The participation rates of both 16-to-19- 

and 20-to-24-year-olds have decreased sharply over 

the past several decades, and their rates are expected 

to decline further, although at a slower rate. 

• The decreasing participation rate of women. The participation rate of women peaked in 1999 after several 
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

4 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

decades of strong growth. Since then, their rate has 

been declining slowly and is expected to continue to 

post small declines in the future.

• The declining participation rate of men. The participation 

rate of men has been steadily declining since its high 

point in the 1940s, and this trend is projected to continue throughout the coming decades.

The participation rate, like other labor market indexes, 

is affected by cyclical, structural, and demographic factors. 

Cyclical changes are changes that happen in response to 

Notes

1 The Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of households, is conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics. The survey provides statistics on the employment 

and labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 

years and older and is collected from a probability sample of approximately 60,000 households. The civilian noninstitutional population 

comprises people 16 years and older residing in the 50 states and the 

District of Columbia who are not inmates of institutions (e.g., penal 

and mental facilities, homes for the aged) and who are not on active 

duty in the Armed Forces. In addition, charts 4–6 also include people 

ages 0 through 15.

2 The Census Bureau recommends its 2008 National Population Projections for data users. See “U.S. Population Projections: 

2008 National Population Projections,” http://www.census.gov/

population/projections/data/national/2008.html. The 2009 National Population Projections are a supplemental series to the 2008 

National Projections released on August 14, 2008; the 2009 projections provide results for differing assumptions of net international 

migration. All other 2009 methodology and assumptions, including mortality and fertility, are the same as those used in the 2008 

National Population Projections. The four 2009 series are useful for 

analyzing potential outcomes of different levels of net international 

migration but lack the detailed age, gender, race, and ethnic data 

needed for the BLS labor force projections.

business cycles and are generally short term. For example, 

the recession of 2007–2009 lowered the participation 

rates of many age, gender, race, and ethnic groups. Historically, structural and demographic changes have longterm impacts. Therefore, the expected shift of the population into older age groups—a demographic change—will 

have long-lasting effects on the labor market.

This essay was prepared by Mitra Toossi, an economist 

in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment 

Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Email: toossi.

mitra@bls.gov.
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 5

1. Live births by year, 1920–2010

5

4

3

2

1

0

Millions Millions

SOURCE: National Center for Health Statistics, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

• Since the beginning of the 20th century, four distinct birthrate patterns in the United States have created 

significant demographic changes with long-lasting impacts on future labor markets. These demographic 

patterns can be traced chronologically as follows:

 The birth dearth—a reduction in birthrates during the late 1920s and early 1930s

 The baby boom—a surge in birthrates from 1946 to 1964

 The baby bust—a slight reduction in birthrates from 1965 to 1975

 The baby boom echo—an increase in birthrates from the early 1980s through the early 1990s 

• The boom-and-bust pattern of U.S. birthrates throughout the past decades greatly influenced the size and 

demographics of the present labor force and will influence the future labor force as well.

5

4

3

2

1

0

Baby boom 

echo

Baby boom

Baby 

dearth

Baby bust

1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

6 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

213

143

238

154

263

164

290

173

317

186

343

201

 2. Population and labor force, 2000, 2010, and projected 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Changes in the rates of birth, death, and migration to and from the United States will continue to shape 

the size and composition of the population over the next four decades. The civilian noninstitutional population ages 16 and older is projected to grow steadily and reach 343 million by 2050.

• The labor force participation rate—the proportion of a population group that is in the labor force—differs 

by age, gender, race, and ethnic origin. Although labor force participation rates for specific groups change 

over time, the historical statistical relationships are fairly consistent across age groups, between the genders, 

and among race and Hispanic-origin groups.

• Changes in both the population and the labor force participation rate over the next four decades will affect the size and composition of the labor force. As a result of these changes, the labor force is projected to 

grow to 201 million by 2050.

Population Labor force

Millions Millions

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 7

 3. Annual population and labor force growth rates by decade, 1950–2010 and projected 2010–2050

• Even though the size of the population will grow, its annual growth rate is projected to slow down in the 

coming decades. The decline in the growth rate of the U.S population is due to a variety of factors, such 

as the aging of the baby boomers, declining fertility rates, and a lessening of the growth in immigration.

• During the 1970s, the annual growth rate of the labor force peaked at 2.6 percent. This high growth rate 

was caused by the entrance of the large baby boom generation into the labor force and the steep rise in 

the participation rate of women. In the 1980s, the continued absorption of the baby boomers into the job 

market kept the participation rate relatively high, and the labor force grew by 1.6 percent.

• In the 1990s, a gradual slowdown occurred in the growth of the labor force because nearly all baby boomers had entered the labor force; the growth rate during this period decreased to 1.3 percent. Since 2000, as 

a result of the shift of population to older age groups with lower participation rates, the growth rate of the 

labor force began to slow down even more. The annual growth of the labor force dropped to 0.8 percent 

over the 2000–2010 decade.

• The high growth rate of the labor force in the 1950–2000 period will be replaced by a much lower growth 

rate throughout the five decades that follow. During the 2000–2050 period, the annual growth rate of the 

labor force is expected to fall to 0.7 percent. 

1950–1960 1960–1970 1970–1980 1980–1990 1990–2000 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050

Percent Percent

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Population Labor force

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

0.7

0.9

1.1 1.1

1.7

1.6

2.6

1.2

1.6

1.2

2.0

0.7

1.0 1.0

0.8

1.1

1.3

0.8 0.8

0.5
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

8 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

4. Population and labor force, 1950

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

• Population pyramids show the age and gender composition of the population and the labor force. In a 

country with high fertility and high mortality, the shape is like a pyramid. In this chart, the baby boom 

generation is in the age group 0 to 4, and the birth dearth generation is reflected in the 16-to-19 and 

20-to-24 age groups. 

• In 1950 as well as in later years, there were more baby boys born than baby girls. However, the higher 

mortality of males results in the population of men and women being the same size around age 24. 

Overall, there is a larger number of older women than older men in the population.

• The pyramid also shows the labor force of men and women in 1950. The difference in the shape of the 

male labor force and female labor force is the result of the different participation rates of the genders. In 

1950 the participation rate for men (86.4 percent) was more than double that for women (33.9 percent).

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

30–34

25–29

20–24

16–19

10–15

5–9

0–4

Population

Labor force

Men Women

Age Millions Millions

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 9

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12

55. Population and labor force, 2000

• The population pyramid in 2000 shows the effects of fifty years of aging and change on the population and 

labor force. Because of both the aging of the population and the steep increase in the labor force participation rate of women, the shape of the pyramid is more rectangular than in 1950.

• In 2000, the baby boom generation was ages 36 to 54, placing them all into the 25-to-54 age group, which 

typically has the highest labor force participation rate. 

• Because of the large increases in labor force participation rates among women, the shape and size of the 

pyramid for both men and women look very much alike. In 2000, women composed 47 percent of the 

labor force, compared with 30 percent in 1950.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

30–34

25–29

20–24

16–19

10–15

5–9

0–4

Millions Age Millions

Population

Labor force

Men Women
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

10 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

urce: Bureau of Labor Statistics

.6. Population and labor force, projected 2050

• The population portion of the pyramid in 2050 looks rectangular in shape in the higher age brackets, 

which is indicative of both longer life spans and the aging of the population.

• The aging of the baby boom generation is projected to increase the share of the older age groups in the 

population. The oldest members of the baby boom generation celebrated their 65th birthday in 2011. In 

2020, all members of this group will be 56 to 74 years old. In 2050, the entire baby boom generation will 

be more than 85 years old, and nearly all will be out of the labor force. 

• By 2050, the shape of the pyramid for both men and women is expected to become nearly symmetric; this 

is a reflection of the further narrowing of the gap between men’s and women’s labor force participation 

rates.

• Women have lower mortality when compared with men, which is made apparent by the large numbers of 

women in the older age groups of the population. 

Men Women

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

85+

80–84

75–79

70–74

65–69

60–64

55–59

50–54

45–49

40–44

35–39

30–34

25–29

20–24

16–19

10–15

5–9

0–4

Millions Age Millions

Population

Labor force

16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 11

7. Labor force by age, 2000, 2010, and projected 2050

• The shift in the composition of the labor force from younger to older age groups is expected to continue 

in the coming decades.

• The 55-and-older group is expected to undergo the most sweeping changes in the years to come, primarily 

because of the aging of the baby boom cohorts. The proportion of the labor force composed of people ages 

55 and older is projected to rise from 13 percent in 2000 to 24 percent by 2050. 

• Although the labor market share of the 45-to-54 age group increased slightly from 2000 to 2010, the share 

is projected to decline to 20 percent in 2050. After an initial drop from 26 percent in 2000 to 22 percent 

in 2010, the share of the 35-to-44 age group is projected to hold steady through 2050. The 25-to-34 age 

group is expected to maintain its share between 2000 and 2050 at 22 percent.

• The labor market share of the 16-to-24 age group declined gradually from 16 percent in 2000 to 14 percent 

in 2010. It is projected that the share of this group will further decrease to 12 percent in 2050. The increase 

in school attendance of people in the 16-to-24 age group, especially 16-to-19-year-olds, is the main reason 

the youth labor force has been decreasing. 

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[In percent]

2000 Projected 2050

16 to 24 years

25 to 34 years

35 to 44 years

55 years and older

45 to 54 years

26 22

16

2010

19

22

22

14

23 22

22

12

20

24

23

13
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

12 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

8. Labor force participation rate for total, men, and women, 1950–2050

• The total participation rate and the separate participation rates for both women and men reflect the changes in the age distribution of the population as well as changes in participation rates by age, gender, race, 

and Hispanic origin. 

• The overall labor force participation rate has risen significantly in the past couple of decades as a consequence of the rapidly increasing participation rate of women. The overall rate peaked at 67.1 percent from 

1997 to 2000 and then started a declining trend.

• The participation rate continued to decline after the recession of 2001 and then held steady at 66.0 percent 

from 2004 to 2008, with a minor uptick to 66.2 percent in 2006. During the 2007–2009 recession, the 

overall labor force participation rate experienced a sharp decline, falling to 65.4 percent by 2009. The participation rate continued to fall sharply, reaching 64.7 percent in 2010 and 64.1 percent in 2011. Therefore, 

the decline between 2008 and 2011 totaled 1.9 percentage points.

• The overall labor force participation rate—like the rates for both men and women—is projected to continue declining, reaching 58.5 percent by 2050.

Percent

100

80

60

40

20

0

Women

Percent

100

80

60

40

20

0

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Men

Total

33.9

86.4

59.2

64.6

52.7

58.5

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 13

9. Annual labor force growth rates by decade for women and men, 1950–2010 and projected

 2010–2050

• The number of men in the U.S. labor force has always been greater than the number of women, but 

historically, the growth rate of women in the labor force has been significantly higher than that of men.

• However, the high growth rate of the women’s labor force over the 1970–2000 period has been replaced 

by much lower growth rates during the 2000–2050 time span.

• It is projected that the higher growth rate of the female labor force relative to that of men will end by 

2020, and the growth rates for men and women will be similar for the 2020–2050 period.

0.7 0.7 0.6

2.4

1.0

3.1

3.7

1.6

1.2

2.3

1.8

0.6 0.7

0.5

0.7 0.8

1.0

0.7 0.8

0.6

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Percent Percent

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

1950–1960 1960–1970 1970–1980 1980–1990 1990–2000 2000–2010 2010–2020 2020–2030 2030–2040 2040–2050

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0

Women Men
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

14 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

• Although the growth rate of the White labor force will be much slower than that of other race groups, 

Whites will remain the largest labor force group in 2050. This group will add 25.6 million people to the 

labor force during the next four decades.

• The Asian labor force is projected to more than double in size over the next four decades and add about 

9 million people to the labor force. Although their number and share of the total labor force both start 

from low levels, the continued immigration of Asians to the United States, coupled with this group’s high 

participation rates, contributes to this huge increase in their labor force.

• The growth in the numbers of Blacks in the labor force from 2010 to 2050 is projected to be 6.4 million 

and mainly results from their higher birth rates, a steady stream of Black immigrants to the county, and 

very high labor force participation rates among Black women compared with other women.

• The category “other,” which includes (1) people of multiple races, (2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives, and (3) Native Hawaiians and other Pacific Islanders, is expected to add 5.8 million people to the 

labor force during the 2010–2050 time frame.

• From 2010 to 2050, people of Hispanic origin are projected to add 37.6 million people to the labor force, 

accounting for about 80 percent of the total growth of the labor force. In comparison, non-Hispanics are 

projected to add only 9 million workers. (Although Hispanics may be of any race, more than 80 percent 

report that their race is White.)

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

10. Labor force growth by race and ethnicity, projected 2010–2050

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Asian Black White Other Hispanic Non-Hispanic

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Millions Millions

Race Ethnicity
Monthly Labor Review • October 2012 15

11. Labor force by race, 2010 and projected 2050

• The declining labor force share of the Whites coincides with faster growth of other race and ethnic groups 

in the U.S. workforce. The upcoming retirement of the baby boomers, a group that has a large proportion 

of White men, will also lower the share of this group in the total labor force. In addition, the low fertility 

rate and low migration of Whites relative to other race groups contributes to the declining share of this 

group both in the population and the labor force.

• The share of the labor force composed of Blacks (12 percent) is projected to be unchanged over the next 

four decades. In contrast, Asians have been one of the fastest growing race groups and this trend is projected to continue over the next four decades. Their share of the labor force is projected to increase from 5 

percent in 2010 to 8 percent in 2050.

• The share of the “all other” category—comprising those classified as being of multiple races, as well as 

the racial categories of American Indians and Alaska Natives and of Native Hawaiians and other Pacific 

Islanders—is projected to more than double, from 2 percent in 2010 to 5 percent in 2050. 

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

[In percent] 2010

81

 2010

5

2

12

White

Black

Asian

All other

Projected 2050

12 8

5

75
Visual Essay: Long-Term Labor Force

16 Monthly Labor Review • October 2012

12. Labor force by ethnicity, 2010 and projected 2050

• Racial and ethnic minorities have assumed an increasing presence in the labor force, and the result can be 

seen in the growing diversity of the work force. 

• Coming to the United States to seek better job opportunities and higher wages, immigrants are the major source of this growing diversity. Immigrants tend to be concentrated in younger age groups and have 

higher fertility rates than do the resident population in the same age groups. Both higher fertility rates and 

higher labor force participation rates of the immigrants have significantly added to the diversity of the U.S. 

population and labor force.

• The Hispanic share of the labor force is projected to double from 15 percent in 2010 to 30 percent in 2050. 

• The high rates of Hispanic immigration to the United States, the younger age profile of Hispanics that 

results in higher birth rates, and the very high labor force participation rates of Hispanics are reasons for 

their increasing share in the labor force.

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Non-Hispanic

Hispanic

85

15

[In percent]

 2010 Projected 2050

30

70