Monthly Labor Review September 1997 9

and 8.7 percent, respectively, of the population in 1995, but each accounted for

more than 28 percent of the projection

error. Their population was underprojected largely because of assumptions

about undocumented immigrants. The

Bureau of the Census has revised its

methodology for projecting the population of undocumented immigrants since

it issued projections for the 1984–95 labor force, and, as a result, the magnitude

of the error for this difficult-to-project

group has been significantly reduced.

The population projection error actually offset errors in labor force participation projections. If the projected 1995

labor force participation rates for each

age, sex, and racial group were applied

to the actual 1995 population, the result

would have increased the labor force by

6.9 million, and the projection would

have been 3.8 million too high. Although some of the age, sex, and racial

group labor force participation rates

were projected too low, and some of the

population groups too high, the net effect was that labor force participation

rate projections were too high and population projections too low, just about offsetting each other.

Footnote

1

 This section focuses on the 1995 projections

as part of the Bureau’s series of 1984–95 projections. In the previous series of projections, covering the 1982–95 period, the projected labor force

of 131.4 million was more accurate, with the error

being 900,000, or 0.7 percent. For a review of all

six BLS labor force projections to 1995, see Howard

N Fullerton, “Evaluating the 1995 BLS Labor Force

Projections,” 1997 Proceedings of the Section on

Government Statistics ((Alexandria, VA, American

Statistical Association, forthcoming).

BLS industry employment projections correctly described most

broad industry trends over the

1984–95 period. Most of the major industry sectors projected to have fasterthan-average growth did so, and 2 of the

3 major sectors projected to decline did

lose employment from 1984 to 1995.

Services and retail trade were projected

to account for 65 percent of the net

change in employment, which was very

close to the actual 72 percent they attained. Downsizing, which has resulted

in the contracting out of many operations, especially in manufacturing industries, is one of many factors that have

led to a growth in services faster than

that projected.

Evaluating the 1995

industry employment

projections

Major industry sectors

Total wage and salary employment was

underprojected by 6.6 million, reflecting chiefly the 3.1 million underprojection of the labor force, but also the unforeseen faster growth of wage and

salary employment, compared with that

of the labor force. The faster growth

stemmed from an unexpected increase

in dual jobholders over the projection

period. Despite the large numerical

underprojection of total employment,

the projected 1995 distribution of employment by major industrial sector

closely matched the actual distribution.

Indeed, the shares of total employment

for all but two sectors, agriculture and

wholesale trade, were projected to

change in the correct direction. Agriculture’s share was projected to decline,

but it maintained its small 1.7 percent

of employment. This was because, although agricultural production declined

as projected, a rapid growth in agricultural services, stemming largely from

lawn care services, offset that decline.

Wholesale trade’s share was projected

to increase from 5.7 percent to 5.9 percent, but it actually dropped to 5.3 percent. Wholesale trade was the only sector whose employment growth rate was

incorrectly projected to be faster than

total employment. The industry grew

more slowly than projected because

manufacturing, an intensive user of

wholesale trade distribution services,

grew more slowly than projected. (See

table 1.)

Manufacturing’s share of employment was correctly projected to decline;

however, instead of dropping from 20

percent to 18.4 percent, it fell even

lower, to 15.5 percent. These projections

were prepared in 1984, just as the

economy was emerging from the deeper

of two recessions in the 1980s, and it

was assumed that manufacturing would

recover from its losses, as in the past,

but not reach its 1979 peak. But this did

not occur. The overprojection was concentrated in defense-related industries in

durable goods manufacturing. NonduThe 1995 BLS projections of industry employment foretold

the trend of almost all major industry groupings, as the

economy hewed closely to the path projected for it

Arthur Andreassen
10 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Wage and salary employment, by major industry group, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Total, all industries1 ........... 96,843 112,267 100.0 118,833 100.0 15.9 22.7 –6,566 –5.5 100.0 100.0

Agriculture, forestry,

and fisheries ............................ 1,668 1,401 1.2 1,976 1.7 –16.0 18.4 –575 –29.1 –1.7 1.4

Mining ....................................... 620 601 .5 418 .4 –3.1 –32.6 183 43.8 –.1 –.9

Construction .............................. 4,726 5,225 4.7 5,407 4.5 10.6 14.4 –182 –3.4 3.2 3.1

Manufacturing ........................... 19,369 20,683 18.4 18,405 15.5 6.8 –5.0 2,278 12.4 8.5 –4.4

Durables ................................ 11,476 12,986 11.6 10,596 8.9 13.2 –7.7 2,390 22.6 9.8 –4.0

Nondurables .......................... 7,894 7,697 6.9 7,809 6.6 –2.5 –1.1 –112 –1.4 –1.3 –.4

Transportation, communications,

and utilities ............................ 5,232 6,031 5.4 6,280 5.3 15.3 20.0 –249 –4.0 5.2 4.8

Wholesale trade ........................ 5,568 6,578 5.9 6,324 5.3 18.1 13.6 254 4.0 6.5 3.4

Retail trade, including eating

and drinking places ............... 16,512 19,549 17.4 20,840 17.5 18.4 26.2 –1,291 –6.2 19.7 19.7

Finance, insurance,

and real estate ...................... 5,683 6,740 6.0 6,949 5.8 18.6 22.3 –209 –3.0 6.9 5.8

Services .................................... 21,517 28,468 25.4 33,042 27.8 32.3 53.6 –4,574 –13.8 45.1 52.4

Business and professional

services, except medical ..... 8,011 11,728 10.4 13,479 11.3 46.4 68.2 –1,751 –13.0 24.1 24.9

Other services ....................... 13,506 16,740 14.9 19,564 16.5 23.9 44.9 –2,824 –14.4 21.0 27.5

Government .............................. 15,947 16,991 15.1 19,192 16.2 6.5 20.4 –2,201 –11.5 6.8 14.8

Table 1.

1 Employment data for wage and salary employment are from the BLS

Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs. Agriculture and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

Share of

total growth,

Industry 1984 198495

1995

Projected Actual

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495 Numerical

error,

1995

Percent

error,

1995

Level Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)

rable-goods-manufacturing industries

were correctly projected to decline, not

only as a share of total employment, but

also in absolute levels. Employment in

mining was correctly projected to decline as well, but the actual decline was

much steeper than the projection. Employment in construction in 1995 was

very close to the projected level, but

construction’s share of employment was

overprojected.

Employment in services was correctly projected to increase faster than

employment in all other sectors, although the actual rate was underprojected. Services accounted for 70 percent of the underprojection in total

employment. Government employment

was correctly projected to decline as a

share of total employment, but the decline was much less than projected. The

finance, insurance, and real estate sector and the transportation, communications, and utilities sector had relatively

small projection errors.

Gross domestic product

Changes made since 1984 to the definition of real demand and to how it is calculated make it difficult to compare the

dollar values of actual and projected

gross domestic product (GDP). The

evaluation that follows, therefore, is

largely based on relative values and actual and projected annual average percent change. Total GDP was projected to

grow at an annual average of 2.8 percent, but actual growth was much

slower, 2.5 percent. Higher-than-projected employment levels were offset by

a slower-than-projected growth in output per worker hour. (See table 2.)

Personal consumption expenditure is

the largest and most stable of the major

demand components of GDP. The projected annual growth rate of 2.9 percent

for total personal consumption expenditure was very close to the actual rate,

2.7 percent. Here, an underprojection

for durable goods consumption was offset by an overprojection for services consumption. The growth rate of gross domestic investment, the most variable of

the major demand components of GDP,

was overprojected. By contrast, the projection of producer’s durable equipment

was too low, as purchases of computer

and communications equipment by businesses were much greater than projected.

However, this was offset by the projection of nonresidential structures and residential structures, which was much too

high. The growth of construction was

spurred by the tax-encouraged building

in the middle 1980s, but slowed significantly in later years because of legislation that affected the tax benefits of this

investment.

Foreign trade, in both its import and

export components, was projected to

grow faster than the other major components of GDP, but it grew even faster

than projected. The trade-weighted

value of the dollar reached a post-World

War II low in 1995, which helped ex-
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 11

Growth in demand components between 1984 and 1995, actual and

projected

[Annual percent change]

Total .............................................. 2.5 2.9

Personal consumption expenditures .... 2.7 2.8

 Durable goods ................................... 3.7 2.8

 Nondurable goods ............................. 1.9 1.9

 Services ............................................. 2.9 3.4

Gross private domestic investment ...... 1.8 2.8

 Producers’ durable equipment ........... 4.7 3.8

 Nonresidential structures .................. –1.2 2.0

 Residential structures ........................ 1.4 2.1

 Change in business inventories ......... –4.0 .3

Net exports ..........................................

 Exports ............................................... 8.1 5.6

 Imports ............................................... –6.3 –4.0

Government ......................................... 2.0 2.5

 Federal Government .......................... .2 2.8

National defense .............................. –.7 3.4

Nondefense ...................................... 2.5 1.1

 State and local government ............... 3.3 2.3

 1 Actual 1995 demand data are available on a gross domestic product basis, rather than the projected gross national product basis.

2

Actual 1995 demand data are available in 1992 chain-weighted dollars, rather than the projected

1972 fixed-weight dollars.

port growth. Import growth from 1984

to 1995 reflected the generally healthy

domestic economy during most of the

period, as well as the unexpected low

price of oil. Some of the components of

government demand were significantly

overprojected and others significantly

underprojected. Changes in the international political situation resulted in a

reversal of the defense buildup that

started in the late 1970s. Consequently,

national defense expenditures, which

were projected to increase significantly,

actually declined. In contrast, Federal

nondefense expenditures rose faster

than projected, as projected cutbacks

did not occur. State and local government purchases were higher than projected, spurred by increases in spending for health and education.

Detailed industries

The BLS evaluation covers wage and salary workers in 117 industries or industry

groups that sum to total employment.1

Average errors have little analytical value,

because some industry sectors, such as

manufacturing, have large numbers of

detailed industries, while other sectors,

such as construction and wholesale trade,

have no industry detail, and retail trade is

divided into only two detailed industries.

The projected direction of change was

correct for 72 (62 percent) of the industries; 28 that were projected to increase

and 44 to decline did so. Projected declines in 12 industries and increases in

33 were in the wrong direction.

Manufacturing industries are overrepresented in the evaluation, accounting for

75 industries, 64 percent of the total number evaluated, although they made up

only 15 percent of employment in 1995.

Durable goods account for 44 manufacturing industries, of which 30 declined

over the 1994–95 period, only 10 of

which were projected to do so. Among

the most significant errors in the projections for manufacturing industries were

those related to the overprojection of defense expenditures, including ordnance

(119 percent), aerospace (60 percent),

shipbuilding (35 percent), and communications and scientific equipment (58

percent). An unforeseen surge in imports

of computers resulted in an overprojection of 123 percent in the computer and

office equipment industry. In contrast,

nine durable-goods-manufacturing industries were underprojected. Of these,

the largest projection error was for motor

vehicles and equipment. An increase in

U.S. operations and a rise in production

by foreign motor vehicle manufacturers

resulted in U.S. jobs gains, rather than

losses due to production in foreign countries. (See table 3.)

In the 31 nondurable goods industries, the projection errors were generally smaller than in durable goods industries. The food-manufacturing industries

were all projected to decline, except for

the miscellaneous group, and all did,

save the miscellaneous group and meat

products. However, the declines were

generally less than projected. Drug

manufacturing grew a little faster than

projected, spurred by purchases from

health service and government health

industries.

Employment in 9 of the 12 detailed

service industries that were evaluated

increased faster than projected. One of

the three that increased less than projected, private households, was projected to decline and did so, but the decline was even greater than projected.

Beauty and barber shops and personal

and repair services registered an increase

in employment, but not as fast as was

projected. Two of the service industries

with the largest numerical projection

errors—miscellaneous business, professional, and social services and doctors’

offices, nursing homes, and miscellaneous health services—were projected

to grow much faster than average, but

they grew even faster than projected.

The former industry was driven in part

by very rapid, unprecedented growth in

the early 1980s, when projections were

Gross domestic

product,1984 to actual

1995

( 1992 dollars)

Gross national

product,1

1984 to projected

1995

( 1992 dollars)2

Components of

demand

Table 2.
12 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Wage and salary employment, by industry, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Total ..................................... 96,843 112,267 100.0 118,833 100.0 15.9 22.7 –6,566 –5.5 100.0 100.0

Agricultural production ................ 1,126 1,021 .9 1,064 .9 –9.3 –5.5 –43 –4.0 –.7 –.3

Agricultural services .................... 501 330 .3 872 .7 –34.2 73.9 –542 –62.2 –1.1 1.7

Forestry, fishing, hunting,

and trapping ............................ 41 50 .0 40 .0 22.0 –2.4 10 25.0 .1 .0

Metal mining ................................ 55 44 .0 51 .0 –20.3 –7.2 –7 –14.1 –.1 .0

Coal mining ................................. 196 185 .2 107 .1 –5.4 –45.4 78 73.2 –.1 –.4

Crude petroleum, natural gas,

and gas liquids ........................ 261 263 .2 155 .1 .8 –40.5 108 69.5 .0 –.5

Nonmetallic minerals,

except fuels ............................. 109 109 .1 105 .1 .5 –3.5 4 4.1 .0 .0

Construction, including oil

and gas services ..................... 4,726 5,225 4.7 5,407 4.5 10.6 14.4 –182 –3.4 3.2 3.1

Logging ....................................... 88 78 .1 82 .1 –10.9 –6.7 –4 –4.4 –.1 .0

Sawmills and planing mills .......... 202 190 .2 186 .2 –6.1 –8.2 4 2.3 –.1 –.1

Wood products and

mobile homes .......................... 428 435 .4 490 .4 1.7 14.5 –55 –11.2 .0 .3

Household furniture .................... 296 321 .3 279 .2 8.6 –5.6 42 15.1 .2 –.1

Miscellaneous furniture

and fixtures .............................. 191 242 .2 221 .2 27.0 15.8 21 9.6 .3 .1

Glass and glass products ........... 163 167 .1 152 .1 2.5 –6.7 15 9.8 .0 .0

Cement and concrete ................. 223 242 .2 222 .2 8.7 –.4 20 9.1 .1 .0

Stone, clay, and miscellaneous

mineral products ...................... 176 212 .2 167 .1 20.5 –4.8 45 26.6 .2 .0

Blast furnaces and basic steel

products ................................... 334 261 .2 239 .2 –21.9 –28.4 22 9.1 –.5 –.4

Foundries, forging, and refining .. 770 785 .7 721 .6 1.9 –6.4 64 8.9 .1 –.2

Metal cans and shipping

containers ................................ 59 52 .0 41 .0 –11.3 –29.7 11 26.2 .0 –.1

Cutlery, handtools,

and hardware .......................... 148 162 .1 131 .1 9.7 –11.0 31 23.3 .1 –.1

Plumbing and nonelectric

heating equipment ................... 65 60 .1 60 .1 –8.0 –7.7 0 –.3 .0 .0

Fabricated structural metal

products ................................... 430 514 .5 428 .4 19.6 –.4 86 20.1 .5 .0

Screw machine products,

bolts, rivets, etc. ...................... 96 108 .1 99 .1 12.1 2.6 9 9.3 .1 .0

Ordnance and ammunition ......... 76 111 .1 51 .0 46.8 –32.8 60 118.5 .2 –.1

Miscellaneous fabricated

metal products ......................... 342 394 .4 379 .3 15.4 10.8 16 4.1 .3 .2

Engines and turbines .................. 113 124 .1 87 .1 9.7 –22.8 37 42.2 .1 –.1

Farm and garden machinery ....... 108 136 .1 104 .1 26.4 –3.4 32 30.9 .2 .0

Construction and related

machinery ................................ 257 334 .3 217 .2 29.8 –15.8 117 54.1 .5 –.2

Metalworking machinery

and equipment ......................... 327 367 .3 340 .3 12.3 3.9 27 8.0 .3 .1

Special industry machinery ......... 158 197 .2 167 .1 24.6 5.6 30 18.0 .3 .0

General industrial machinery

and equipment ......................... 252 325 .3 253 .2 29.0 .4 72 28.5 .5 .0

Computer and office equipment .. 515 756 .7 340 .3 46.9 –34.0 416 122.5 1.6 –.8

Refrigeration and service

 industry machinery ................. 171 194 .2 200 .2 13.3 16.7 –6 –2.9 .1 .1

Industrial machinery, n.e.c.1 ........ 317 322 .3 336 .3 1.6 5.9 –14 –4.1 .0 .1

Electric distribution equipment .... 111 231 .2 81 .1 108.3 –26.9 150 184.8 .8 –.1

Electrical industrial apparatus ..... 201 241 .2 160 .1 19.7 –20.4 81 50.3 .3 –.2

Household appliances ................. 146 150 .1 123 .1 2.6 –16.0 27 22.1 .0 –.1

Electric lighting and wiring

equipment ................................ 202 223 .2 182 .2 10.5 –9.7 41 22.4 .1 –.1

Household audio and

video equipment ...................... 90 85 .1 93 .1 –5.6 3.1 –8 –8.4 .0 .0

Communication and scientific

equipment ................................ 986 1,164 1.0 737 .6 18.1 –25.3 427 58.0 1.2 –1.1

Electronic components

and accessories ...................... 657 846 .8 582 .5 28.7 –11.5 265 45.5 1.2 –.3

Table 3.

Share of

total growth,

Industry 1984 198495

1995

Projected Actual

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495 Numerical

error,

1995

Percent

error,

1995

Level

Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 13

Table 3.

Share of

total growth,

Industry 1984 198495

1995

Projected Actual

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495 Numerical

error,

1995

Percent

error,

1995

Level Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)

Miscellaneous electrical

equipment ................................ 170 186 .2 154 .1 9.7 –9.1 32 20.7 .1 –.1

Motor vehicles and equipment .... 862 826 .7 933 .8 –4.1 8.3 –107 –11.5 –.2 .3

Aerospace ................................... 729 866 .8 541 .5 18.8 –25.8 325 60.0 .9 –.9

Ship and boat building

and repairing ........................... 192 220 .2 163 .1 14.7 –15.3 58 35.4 .2 –.1

Railroad equipment ..................... 35 36 .0 38 .0 2.9 8.6 –2 –5.3 .0 .0

Miscellaneous transportation

equipment ................................ 65 59 .1 70 .1 –9.8 6.7 –11 –15.5 .0 .0

Medical equipment, instruments,

and supplies ............................ 208 234 .2 262 .2 12.4 25.7 –28 –10.6 .2 .2

Photographic equipment

and supplies ............................ 124 135 .1 87 .1 9.0 –30.1 49 56.1 .1 –.2

Watches, clocks, and parts ......... 14 14 .0 8 .0 –.7 –43.3 6 75.0 .0 .0

Jewelry, silverware,

and plated ware ....................... 55 78 .1 51 .0 42.6 –7.3 27 53.8 .2 .0

Manufactured products, n.e.c.1 ... 327 303 .3 343 .3 –7.3 4.9 –40 –11.6 –.2 .1

Meat products ............................. 355 328 .3 465 .4 –7.7 30.8 –137 –29.4 –.2 .5

Dairy products ............................. 163 126 .1 150 .1 –22.8 –8.2 –24 –15.9 –.2 –.1

Grain mill products, fats, and

oils ........................................... 166 124 .1 159 .1 –25.2 –3.9 –35 –22.2 –.3 .0

Bakery products .......................... 218 181 .2 212 .2 –16.9 –2.8 –31 –14.6 –.2 .0

Sugar and confectionery

products ................................... 102 85 .1 99 .1 –16.5 –2.5 –14 –14.4 –.1 .0

Beverages ................................... 214 191 .2 179 .2 –10.9 –16.6 12 6.8 –.2 –.2

Miscellaneous foods

and kindred products ............... 390 415 .4 421 .4 6.3 7.9 –6 –1.5 .2 .1

Tobacco products ........................ 64 56 .0 39 .0 –12.8 –38.6 17 42.1 –.1 –.1

Weaving, finishing, yarn,

and thread mills ....................... 432 354 .3 350 .3 –18.1 –19.0 4 1.2 –.5 –.4

Knitting mills ................................ 208 168 .1 191 .2 –19.0 –7.8 –23 –12.2 –.3 –.1

Carpets and rugs ........................ 53 43 .0 65 .1 –19.5 20.8 –22 –33.3 –.1 .1

Miscellaneous textile goods ........ 53 46 .0 51 .0 –13.9 –5.2 –5 –9.1 .0 .0

Apparel ........................................ 1,000 808 .7 705 .6 –19.2 –29.5 103 14.6 –1.2 –1.3

Miscellaneous fabricated textile

products ................................... 185 174 .2 211 .2 –5.9 14.3 –37 –17.7 –.1 .1

Paperboard containers

and boxes ................................ 197 183 .2 215 .2 –7.2 9.0 –32 –14.8 –.1 .1

Pulp, paper, and paperboard ...... 477 480 .4 473 .4 .7 –.8 7 1.5 .0 .0

Newspapers ................................ 440 508 .5 453 .4 15.5 3.0 55 12.2 .4 .1

Periodicals, except

newspapers ............................. 277 313 .3 341 .3 13.2 23.5 –28 –8.3 .2 .3

Printing ........................................ 659 785 .7 762 .6 19.1 15.6 23 3.1 .8 .5

Industrial chemicals .................... 305 305 .3 272 .2 –.1 –11.0 33 12.3 .0 –.2

Plastics materials

and synthetics ......................... 178 162 .1 158 .1 –8.9 –11.3 4 2.7 –.1 –.1

Drugs .......................................... 206 243 .2 260 .2 18.1 26.1 –17 –6.4 .2 .2

Soap, cleaners, and

toilet goods .............................. 145 160 .1 152 .1 10.0 4.5 8 5.3 .1 .0

Paints and allied products ........... 62 57 .1 58 .0 –8.1 –6.3 –1 –1.9 .0 .0

Agricultural chemicals ................. 61 61 .1 53 .0 .7 –12.2 8 14.7 .0 .0

Miscellaneous chemical

products ................................... 92 101 .1 93 .1 9.4 .9 8 8.5 .1 .0

Petroleum and coal product

 manufacturing......................... 189 175 .2 144 .1 –7.4 –24.0 31 21.8 –.1 –.2

Tires and inner tubes .................. 95 86 .1 83 .1 –9.7 –13.1 3 4.0 –.1 –.1

Rubber products, plastic hose,

and footwear ............................ 184 132 .1 184 .2 –28.2 .2 –52 –28.4 –.3 .0

Miscellaneous plastics products,

 n.e.c.1 ..................................... 534 707 .6 705 .6 32.4 31.9 2 .3 1.1 .8

Footwear and other leather

products ................................... 190 140 .1 108 .1 –26.1 –43.0 32 29.5 –.3 –.4

Railroad transportation ............... 376 283 .3 239 .2 –24.7 –36.5 45 18.7 –.6 –.6

Local and interurban passenger

transit ....................................... 270 267 .2 448 .4 –1.2 65.6 –181 –40.3 .0 .8

 ContinuedWage and salary employment, by industry, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]
14 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Table 3.

Share of

total growth,

Industry 1984 198495

1995

Projected Actual

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495 Numerical

error,

1995

Percent

error,

1995

Level Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)

Trucking and warehousing .......... 1,317 1,571 1.4 1,879 1.6 19.3 42.6 –308 –16.4 1.6 2.6

Water transportation ................... 190 206 .2 160 .1 8.4 –16.1 47 29.2 .1 –.1

Air transportation ........................ 488 574 .5 766 .6 17.6 56.8 –192 –25.0 .6 1.3

Pipelines, except natural gas ...... 19 20 .0 17 .0 4.7 –13.6 4 21.2 .0 .0

Miscellaneous transportation

services ................................... 253 362 .3 424 .4 43.1 67.4 –62 –14.5 .7 .8

Communications ......................... 1,340 1,575 1.4 1,358 1.1 17.5 1.3 217 16.0 1.5 .1

Electric utilities ............................ 645 827 .7 585 .5 28.3 –9.3 242 41.5 1.2 –.3

Gas utilities ................................. 223 225 .2 189 .2 .8 –15.4 36 19.0 .0 –.2

Water and sanitation ................... 110 121 .1 218 .2 10.0 98.5 –97 –44.6 .1 .5

Wholesale trade .......................... 5,568 6,578 5.9 6,324 5.3 18.1 13.6 254 4.0 6.5 3.4

Retail trade, except eating

and drinking places ................. 11,131 12,890 11.5 13,617 11.5 15.8 22.3 –727 –5.3 11.4 11.3

Eating and drinking places .......... 5,381 6,659 5.9 7,223 6.1 23.8 34.2 –564 –7.8 8.3 8.4

Banking and brokerages ............. 2,852 3,396 3.0 3,316 2.8 19.1 16.3 80 2.4 3.5 2.1

Insurance .................................... 1,765 2,056 1.8 2,243 1.9 16.5 27.1 –187 –8.3 1.9 2.2

Real estate and royalties ............ 1,067 1,288 1.1 1,390 1.2 20.7 30.3 –102 –7.3 1.4 1.5

Lodging places and residential

care ......................................... 1,532 1,955 1.7 2,259 1.9 27.6 47.5 –304 –13.5 2.7 3.3

Beauty and barber shops ............ 341 430 .4 395 .3 26.3 16.0 35 8.8 .6 .2

Personal and repair services,

n.e.c.1 ...................................... 706 1,160 1.0 881 .7 64.4 24.8 280 31.7 2.9 .8

Advertising .................................. 183 227 .2 241 .2 24.0 31.3 –14 –5.6 .3 .3

Miscellaneous business,

professional, and social

services ................................... 7,828 11,501 10.2 13,238 11.1 46.9 69.1 –1,737 –13.1 23.8 24.6

Automotive services .................... 682 864 .8 1,025 .9 26.6 50.3 –161 –15.7 1.2 1.6

Motion pictures and videotape

rental ....................................... 276 243 .2 586 .5 –11.9 112.6 –343 –58.5 –.2 1.4

Amusement and recreation

services, n.e.c.1 ....................... 859 1,056 .9 1,474 1.2 23.0 71.7 –418 –28.4 1.3 2.8

Doctors, nursing homes,

and miscellaneous health

services ................................... 3,115 4,796 4.3 5,454 .6 54.0 75.1 –658 –12.1 10.9 10.6

Hospitals ..................................... 3,004 3,253 2.9 3,816 3.2 8.3 27.0 –563 –14.7 1.6 3.7

Educational, job training,

child care, etc. ......................... 1,755 1,964 1.7 2,712 2.3 11.9 54.5 –748 –27.6 1.4 4.3

Private households ..................... 1,238 1,019 .9 963 .8 –17.7 –22.2 56 5.8 –1.4 –1.3

U.S. Postal Service ..................... 703 677 .6 843 .7 –3.7 20.0 –166 –19.7 –.2 .6

Federal Government enterprises,

n.e.c.1 ........................................ 197 140 .1 194 .2 –29.0 –1.8 –54 –27.6 –.4 .0

General government ................... 14,325 15,429 13.7 17,389 14.6 7.7 21.4 –1,960 –11.3 7.2 13.9

Local government passenger

 transit ..................................... 186 209 .2 212 .2 12.4 14.2 –3 –1.6 .1 .1

State and local government

enterprises, n.e.c.1 .................. 536 536 .5 554 .5 .0 3.3 –18 –3.2 .0 .1

1

 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

 ContinuedWage and salary employment, by industry, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

developed for the temporary help services supply industry. Growth in that industry reflects much of the cost cutting

that employers have been implementing over the past several years, as firms

replace permanent employees with temporary ones to save on the cost of benefits, yet maintain flexibility in their production operations.

Employment in railroads, air transportation, trucking and warehousing,

and local and interurban transit grew

faster than projected. The most significant underprojection was for the last of

these, as the growth of subway systems

took hold during the projection period.

Employment in the transportation industries grew faster than projected, as companies converted to ”just in time” inventory management more rapidly than was

expected. Electric and gas utilities were

both projected to increase, but they decreased, as deregulation apparently had

a significant impact on employment.

Footnotes

1

 Originally, projections were made for 156 industries. Because of changes in the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system, however, com-
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 15

parability with actual 1995 industries could be accomplished only at a 117-industry level. Data were

analyzed just for wage and salary workers, both beThe Bureau’s occupational employment projections captured

the majority of the general occupational trends over the 1984–95 period.

Some of the most glaring inaccuracies

in the projections for detailed occupations reflect the conservative nature of

projected growth rates that was identified in previous evaluations. Although

the impact of inaccurate industry employment projections on the occupational employment projections was significant, the projections of the changes

in the utilization of occupations by industry resulted in the biggest source of

projection error, as in past evaluations.

Major occupation groups

The direction of employment change

was projected correctly for all nine of

the major occupation groups. The absolute projection error was less than 10

percent for eight out of the nine groups

and 11.3 percent for professional specialty occupations, the major occupation

group with the largest absolute error.

(See table 1.)

Projected employment was lower

than actual in six major groups: executive, administrative, and managerial

occupations; professional specialty

occupations; marketing and sales occupations; administrative support occupations, including clerical; services occupations; and operators, fabricators, and

laborers. Employment was overestimated for precision production, craft,

and repair occupations, and technicians

and related support occupations. The latter group’s employment was projected

the most accurately, at less than 1 percent more than actual employment. The

decline in employment was slightly

overestimated for agriculture, forestry,

fishing, and related occupations.

Not only was the direction of employment change anticipated correctly for all

the major groups, but the projected distribution of employment growth among

the groups was reasonably accurate.1

 For

example, the professional specialty occupation group had the largest absolute

numerical error, nearly 2 million, but its

share of total employment growth was

underprojected by only 3.4 percent.

Thus, the projection for total employment—low by about 7.3 million—had

an impact on the overall accuracy of the

projections.

The largest error in the projected share

of employment growth was for precision

production, craft, and repair occupations. This group’s share of total employment growth was overprojected by about

7 percent, in line with its employment

being overprojected by 886,000. For

each major group, however, the same

pattern of projection of employment

growth and rprojection of the group’s

share of employment growth does not

necessarily apply. In the case of operators, fabricators, and laborers, for example, employment was slightly

underprojected, and the share of employment growth was overprojected. For

marketing and sales workers, the projected share of total employment growth

was almost identical to the actual share,

although the level of employment was

underprojected. (See table 1.)

The fastest growing occupation

groups had the largest absolute projection errors. Technicians and related support occupations was projected to be the

fastest growing group, but was outpaced

by four other groups.The two actual

leaders, professional specialty occupations and executive, administrative, and

managerial occupations, which were

both projected to grow faster than average, but not as fast as they really did

grow.

Administrative support workers, including clerical workers, made up the

largest group of workers in 1984 and

also was projected to be, and was in actuality, the largest in 1995, even though

it did not grow more slowly than average, as projected. The projection error

for this group was 8.3 percent. The

group’s projected slow growth was

based on the anticipated effect of the

rapid spread of computerized office

equipment. As a result, many clerical

occupations were correctly projected

to grow slowly or decline. However,

cause of the change in the SIC system and because it

would be difficult to establish comparability between the data for these workers, derived from the

Current Employment Statistics program, and data

on self-employed and unpaid family workers, derived from the Current Population Survey.

Evaluating the 1995

occupational employment

projections

Although too conservative, the BLS employment

projections to 1995 correctly foresaw

most general occupational trends

Carolyn M. Veneri