Monthly Labor Review September 1997 15

parability with actual 1995 industries could be accomplished only at a 117-industry level. Data were

analyzed just for wage and salary workers, both beThe Bureau’s occupational employment projections captured

the majority of the general occupational trends over the 1984–95 period.

Some of the most glaring inaccuracies

in the projections for detailed occupations reflect the conservative nature of

projected growth rates that was identified in previous evaluations. Although

the impact of inaccurate industry employment projections on the occupational employment projections was significant, the projections of the changes

in the utilization of occupations by industry resulted in the biggest source of

projection error, as in past evaluations.

Major occupation groups

The direction of employment change

was projected correctly for all nine of

the major occupation groups. The absolute projection error was less than 10

percent for eight out of the nine groups

and 11.3 percent for professional specialty occupations, the major occupation

group with the largest absolute error.

(See table 1.)

Projected employment was lower

than actual in six major groups: executive, administrative, and managerial

occupations; professional specialty

occupations; marketing and sales occupations; administrative support occupations, including clerical; services occupations; and operators, fabricators, and

laborers. Employment was overestimated for precision production, craft,

and repair occupations, and technicians

and related support occupations. The latter group’s employment was projected

the most accurately, at less than 1 percent more than actual employment. The

decline in employment was slightly

overestimated for agriculture, forestry,

fishing, and related occupations.

Not only was the direction of employment change anticipated correctly for all

the major groups, but the projected distribution of employment growth among

the groups was reasonably accurate.1

 For

example, the professional specialty occupation group had the largest absolute

numerical error, nearly 2 million, but its

share of total employment growth was

underprojected by only 3.4 percent.

Thus, the projection for total employment—low by about 7.3 million—had

an impact on the overall accuracy of the

projections.

The largest error in the projected share

of employment growth was for precision

production, craft, and repair occupations. This group’s share of total employment growth was overprojected by about

7 percent, in line with its employment

being overprojected by 886,000. For

each major group, however, the same

pattern of projection of employment

growth and rprojection of the group’s

share of employment growth does not

necessarily apply. In the case of operators, fabricators, and laborers, for example, employment was slightly

underprojected, and the share of employment growth was overprojected. For

marketing and sales workers, the projected share of total employment growth

was almost identical to the actual share,

although the level of employment was

underprojected. (See table 1.)

The fastest growing occupation

groups had the largest absolute projection errors. Technicians and related support occupations was projected to be the

fastest growing group, but was outpaced

by four other groups.The two actual

leaders, professional specialty occupations and executive, administrative, and

managerial occupations, which were

both projected to grow faster than average, but not as fast as they really did

grow.

Administrative support workers, including clerical workers, made up the

largest group of workers in 1984 and

also was projected to be, and was in actuality, the largest in 1995, even though

it did not grow more slowly than average, as projected. The projection error

for this group was 8.3 percent. The

group’s projected slow growth was

based on the anticipated effect of the

rapid spread of computerized office

equipment. As a result, many clerical

occupations were correctly projected

to grow slowly or decline. However,

cause of the change in the SIC system and because it

would be difficult to establish comparability between the data for these workers, derived from the

Current Employment Statistics program, and data

on self-employed and unpaid family workers, derived from the Current Population Survey.

Evaluating the 1995

occupational employment

projections

Although too conservative, the BLS employment

projections to 1995 correctly foresaw

most general occupational trends

Carolyn M. Veneri
16 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

employment increased more rapidly

than projected in several large clerical occupations, such as bill and account collectors, adjustment clerks,

and teachers’ aides and educational

assistants.

Projection errors were also relatively

large for both service occupations and

marketing and sales occupations. Each

of these groups grew faster than projected, and together they accounted for

a combined employment growth of

about 8.1 million jobs, rather than the

expected 5.6 million. More than 60

percent of the projection error of 1.1

million for the marketing and sales occupations can be attributed to an underprojection of two occupations: cashiers and retail salespersons. These

occupations accounted for an underestimate of almost 700,000 workers.

Projection errors for agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations,

and for operators, fabricators, and laborers, were relatively small. Part of this

accuracy can be attributed to growth

among occupations less affected by

technological change, such as transportation and material-moving occupations; nursery workers; and animal caretakers, except farmworkers. Conversely,

precision production, craft, and repair

occupations were overprojected by almost a million workers. Because these

workers are concentrated in the construction and manufacturing industries,

the projected increase in their employment was tied primarily to the projections for those industries.

Professional specialty occupations

grew by about 4.7 million over the

1984–95 period, almost 2 million more

than projected. Significant errors in the

projections for detailed occupations

with sizable employment had a substantial impact on the overall projection error for this group. For example, underprojections for five professional

specialty occupations—computer systems analysts, engineers, and scientists;

college and university faculty; adult and

vocational education teachers; registered nurses; and social workers—contributed significantly to the underprojection of professional workers.

Underprojection of the five occupations

accounted for about 38 percent of underestimated employment for this major group. That the projection error for

professional specialty occupations was

only 11.3 percent can be attributed to

some offsetting of this underprojection

caused by an overprojection of other

types of engineers.2

Detailed occupations

The evaluation of the 1995 projections

covered 348 detailed occupations. Table

2 presents data on the 207 occupations

for which 1984 employment was greater

than 50,000, ranked by absolute percent

error.3 The absolute percent errors for all

348 averaged about 24 percent. More

than three-fifths of the occupations, however, had below-average errors.

The Bureau can evaluate only the

projections for occupations that had

comparable definitions in surveys used

to compile employment data in the base

year and the target year of the projections. Consequently, in past evaluations,

relatively few occupations could be

evaluated, because the classification

system changed rather frequently. However, many more occupations maintained comparability between 1984 and

1995 than in past evaluation periods,

because the OES survey occupational

classification remained very stable over

that period. As a result, the number of

occupations included in this evaluation

is much larger than in past evaluations.4

Employment, by major occupation group, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Table 1.

Share of

total job growth,

Occupation 1984 198495

Employment

Projected 1995 Actual 1995

Projected Actual Projected Actual

Percent change,

198495

Numerical

error,

1995

(projected

minus

actual)

Percent

error,

1995

Level

Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)

Total, all occupations ........... 106,729 122,758 100.0 130,009 100.0 15.0 21.8 –7,250 –5.6 100.0 100.0

Executive, administrative,

and managerial occupations ..... 9,951 11,933 9.7 13,244 10.2 19.9 33.1 –1,311 –9.9 12.4 14.1

Professional specialty

occupations ............................... 13,020 15,701 12.8 17,696 13.6 20.6 35.9 –1,995 –11.3 16.7 20.1

Technicians and related support

occupations ............................... 3,535 4,564 3.7 4,541 3.5 29.1 28.5 23 .5 6.4 4.3

Marketing and sales workers ...... 10,978 13,322 10.9 14,389 11.1 21.3 31.1 –1,068 –7.4 14.6 14.7

Administrative support

occupations, including clerical .. 19,670 21,731 17.7 23,710 18.2 10.5 20.5 –1,979 –8.3 12.9 17.4

Service occupations .................... 16,244 19,510 15.9 20,889 16.1 20.1 28.6 –1,379 –6.6 20.4 20.0

Agriculture, forestry, fishing,

and related occupations ............ 3,798 3,641 3.0 3,779 2.9 –4.1 –.5 –138 –3.6 –1.0 –.1

Precision production, craft,

and repair occupations .............. 13,469 15,110 12.3 14,224 10.9 12.2 5.6 886 6.2 10.2 3.2

Operators, fabricators,

and laborers .............................. 16,064 17,246 14.0 17,536 13.5 7.4 9.2 –290 –1.7 7.4 6.3
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 17

Projection error is inversely related

to employment size, as past projection

evaluations have indicated. In 1984,

fewer than 100,000 workers were employed in each of 211 of the 348 occupations included in the evaluation.

These 211 occupations had an average

projection error of about 29 percent,

whereas 32 occupations with more than

500,000 workers in 1984 had an average error of about 12.2 percent.

The direction of employment change

was projected correctly for more than

70 percent of the occupations included

in the evaluation. Employment growth

was projected for the majority of all the

occupations. Of the 231 occupations for

which employment actually grew from

1984 to 1995, an increase was projected

for all but 16. However, of the 117 occupations for which employment declined, only 37 were projected to decline

over the period.

The errors among the occupations

included in the evaluation ranged

widely. (See table 2.) For example, the

difference between projected and actual

employment was underestimated by

about 42 percent for physicians’ assistants and overestimated by about 190

percent for roustabouts. Since roustabouts are primarily concentrated in the

oil and gas industry, this projection reveals how the effects of incorrect industry projections can affect the projections

for individual occupations.

The last two columns in table 2

present the projected and actual share

of the overall employment increase for

each of the 207 occupations for which

1984 employment was greater than

50,000. Although there are some notable

exceptions, the projected shares for the

detailed occupations, like those for the

major groups, are relatively accurate.

Sources of error

Errors in the projections for the detailed

occupations included in the evaluation

can ultimately be traced back to errors

in assumptions or judgment, resulting

in incorrectly projected changes in staffing patterns, industry projections, or a

combination of both. In order to identify the sources of error, two simulated

matrices were created. The first of these

was generated by multiplying the projected 1995 staffing patterns of industries by actual 1995 industry employment. The second was produced by

multiplying the actual 1995 staffing patterns by projected employment by industry. The first simulation reveals the

outcome if the Bureau had projected

perfect industry employment totals and

the second the outcome if it had projected perfect occupational staffing patterns. Table 2 presents projection errors

from the two simulated matrices created

to analyze these effects.

In viewing the projection levels and

errors for the detailed occupations, it is

possible to identify the effects analytical judgments had on the individual projections. Analyses of underlying trends

or impacts of technological change were

used in developing both the industry

projections and the projected staffing

patterns of industries. As mentioned in

Arthur Andreassen’s contribution to this

article, industry employment projections

were affected by unanticipated economic changes.5

 Employment in manufacturing, for example, did not increase

as projected, but declined because of a

number of factors, including a reduction

in defense spending, rapid growth of

imports, and a trend toward outsourcing

all types of services. In contrast, employment in services grew at a much

faster rate than projected.

The effect of industry errors on occupational employment may be clearly seen

in an example taken from table 2. Earlier,

it was mentioned that one of the largest

projection errors occurred for roustabouts, around 190 percent. Examining

the projection errors from both simulations, one can see clearly that the error is

attributable more to incorrect industry

projections for the related oil and gas industries than to the projected staffing pattern: the error in the simulation using actual staffing patterns and projected

industry totals is 115 percent, while it is

only 38 percent with actual industry

totals and projected staffing patterns.

Job clusters. In investigating sources

of projection error, it is helpful to examine groups of related occupations, or

job clusters. A number of such clusters

have been selected for closer examination in this section because they show

large projection errors or highlight specific sources of error. For example, the

underprojection of the education industry affected the projections for education-related occupations. This conclusion is supported by a review of the two

simulated matrices for the projection

errors for college and university faculty

and teachers’ aides and educational assistants. Between 1984 and 1995, the

employment of college and university

faculty was projected to decline about

14 percent, whereas it actually increased

approximately 12 percent. The projected decline was based primarily on

the U.S. Department of Education’s National Center for Education Statistics’

projected drop in college enrollments,

reflecting the shrinking population of

18- to 24-year-olds. Enrollment rates,

however, increased during the 1980s, as

colleges accepted greater numbers of

older individuals and enrollment rates

of students of traditional college age

rose more rapidly than expected.

Due to similar misconceptions about

enrollments in higher education, the employment of adult and vocational education teachers also was significantly

under-projected. However, the absolute

percent error for adult and vocational

education teachers is actually larger in

the simulation using the projected staffing patterns and actual 1995 industry

totals than in the simulation using actual staffing patterns and projected industry employment. (See table 3.) This

indicates that the error in the projections

for adult and vocational education

teachers was in fact more the result of

the underlying assumptions or judgments that went into determining the utilization of the workers in the education

industry, rather than a result of the projection for the education industry. Although moderately rising demand for

adult education was anticipated, the declining population of 18- to 22-year-olds
18 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Occupation

1984

Total employment

Projected 1995

Projected

Actual 1995

Percent change,

198495

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Actual

Total, all occupations .......................... 106,729 122,758 100.00 130,009 100.00 15.0 21.8

Cooks, institution or cafeteria .................... 361 426 .35 426 .33 18.0 18.1

Aircraft mechanics ..................................... 82 98 .08 98 .08 19.7 19.8

Mail clerks, except mail machine

operators and postal service .................. 126 132 .11 132 .10 5.3 5.2

Supervisors of blue–collar workers ............ 1,794 1,931 1.57 1,925 1.48 7.6 7.3

Butchers and meatcutters .......................... 229 220 .18 219 .17 –4.1 –4.5

Crushing and mixing machine operators

and tenders ............................................ 133 137 .11 138 .11 3.5 4.0

Highway maintenance workers .................. 159 167 .14 168 .13 5.0 5.7

Cannery workers ........................................ 74 72 .06 72 .06 –3.4 –2.8

Farmers ...................................................... 1,312 1,240 1.01 1,231 .95 –5.5 –6.2

Stock clerks ............................................... 1,707 1,800 1.47 1,815 1.40 5.5 6.3

Industrial machinery mechanics ................ 438 465 .38 470 .36 6.3 7.3

Secretaries ................................................. 3,050 3,369 2.74 3,403 2.62 10.5 11.6

Pharmacists ............................................... 157 174 .14 172 .13 10.7 9.6

Loan and credit clerks ................................ 146 172 .14 174 .13 17.5 19.2

Bus drivers, except school ......................... 138 156 .13 158 .12 13.3 14.9

Tire repairers and changers ....................... 80 90 .07 91 .07 12.8 14.5

Guards ....................................................... 680 903 .74 917 .71 32.8 34.9

Brokers, real estate .................................... 58 68 .06 69 .05 16.2 18.1

Supervisors of police and detectives ......... 80 89 .07 88 .07 11.3 9.3

Purchasing agents, except wholesale,

retail, and farm products ........................ 183 216 .18 220 .17 18.2 20.6

Bookkeeping, accounting,

and auditing clerks ................................. 2,019 2,158 1.76 2,217 1.71 6.9 9.8

Order clerks for materials, merchandise,

and service ............................................. 263 315 .26 324 .25 19.9 23.3

Public relations specialists

and publicity writers ................................ 83 108 .09 112 .09 30.9 34.6

Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters ....... 104 124 .10 127 .10 18.7 22.1

Welders and cutters ................................... 291 330 .27 340 .26 13.5 16.9

Dental assistants ....................................... 149 191 .16 197 .15 28.0 31.9

Dispatchers, except police, fire,

and ambulance ....................................... 118 142 .12 146 .11 19.7 23.5

Waiters and waitresses .............................. 1,570 1,978 1.61 1,916 1.47 25.9 22.0

Drywall installers and finishers .................. 117 129 .11 125 .10 10.2 6.8

Pressing machine operators and tenders,

textile, garment, and related ................... 89 80 .07 78 .06 –10.3 –13.1

Stenographers ........................................... 172 101 .08 105 .08 –41.2 39.2

Numerical control machine tool operators

and tenders, metal/plastic ...................... 58 74 .06 77 .06 28.7 33.1

Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters ................ 53 59 .05 57 .04 12.9 9.0

Food counter, fountain,

and related workers ................................ 1,377 1,627 1.33 1,692 1.30 18.2 22.9

Paralegals .................................................. 54 105 .09 110 .08 96.2 104.2

Licensed practical nurses .......................... 593 695 .57 724 .56 17.3 22.1

Machine-forming operators and tenders,

metal and plastic .................................... 174 170 .14 177 .14 –2.2 1.9

Bank tellers ................................................ 497 522 .43 545 .42 5.1 9.7

Machine builders and other precision

machine assemblers ............................... 53 63 .05 61 .05 20.5 15.6

Medical assistants ...................................... 126 204 .17 214 .16 62.5 70.6

Electricians................................................. 511 592 .48 565 .43 15.9 10.5

Truck drivers, light and heavy .................... 2,123 2,511 2.05 2,648 2.04 18.3 24.7

Photographers ........................................... 92 121 .10 115 .09 31.6 25.1

Production, planning,

and expediting clerks ............................. 210 230 .19 243 .19 9.6 15.9

Packaging and filling machine operators

and tenders ............................................ 298 314 .26 333 .26 5.4 11.9

Textile drawout and winding machine

operators and tenders ............................ 237 199 .16 188 .14 –15.9 –20.6

Sewing machine operators, nongarment ... 137 137 .11 130 .10 .4 –5.2

Employment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Table 2.
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 19

Occupation

1984

Total employment

Projected 1995

Projected

Actual 1995

Percent change,

198495

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Actual

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Carpet installers ......................................... 64 75 .06 70 .05 15.8 9.3

Salespersons, retail ................................... 3,284 3,729 3.04 3,970 3.05 13.6 20.9

Heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration

mechanics and installers ........................ 209 247 .20 233 .18 18.0 11.1

Police patrol officers ................................... 334 378 .31 403 .31 13.1 20.7

Janitors and cleaners, including

maids/houskeeping cleaners .................. 2,449 2,890 2.35 3,086 2.37 18.0 26.0

Extruding and forming machine setters,

operators, and tenders ........................... 104 110 .09 103 .08 5.6 –.8

Carpenters ................................................. 940 1,029 .84 965 .74 9.5 2.7

Travel agents .............................................. 94 138 .11 129 .10 46.5 37.3

Sheet metal workers and duct installers .... 215 246 .20 230 .18 14.3 7.0

Employment interviewers, private or public

employment service ............................... 63 89 .07 83 .06 39.5 30.1

Cost estimators .......................................... 143 171 .14 184 .14 19.2 28.5

Central office and PBX installers

and repairers .......................................... 77 86 .07 80 .06 11.4 3.8

Insulation workers ...................................... 53 60 .05 65 .05 12.9 21.9

Chemists .................................................... 84 89 .07 96 .07 5.6 14.0

Personnel clerks, except payroll

and timekeeping ..................................... 115 135 .11 125 .10 16.5 8.2

Helpers, construction trades ...................... 466 484 .39 525 .40 3.8 12.5

Librarians, professional .............................. 128 139 .11 152 .12 8.5 18.2

Chemical equipment controllers,

operators, and tenders ........................... 77 79 .06 73 .06 3.1 –5.1

Police detectives and investigators ............ 55 60 .05 66 .05 10.1 20.8

Plastic molding machine operators

and tenders, setters,

and setup operators ............................... 142 185 .15 169 .13 29.6 18.9

Registered nurses ...................................... 1,326 1,758 1.43 1,937 1.49 32.6 46.1

Maintenance repairers, general utility ........ 999 1,173 .96 1,294 1.00 17.4 29.5

Physicians .................................................. 487 600 .49 548 .42 23.2 12.6

Painters and paperhangers, construction

and maintenance .................................... 368 384 .31 424 .33 4.3 15.2

Refuse collectors ....................................... 106 125 .10 114 .09 17.9 7.0

Welfare eligibility workers

and interviewers ..................................... 82 94 .08 105 .08 15.0 28.1

Concrete and terrazzo finishers ................. 100 117 .10 130 .10 17.0 30.4

Mobile heavy equipment mechanics .......... 102 119 .10 107 .08 16.6 5.6

New-accounts clerks, banking ................... 87 99 .08 111 .09 14.4 27.7

Data entry keyers, except composing ....... 369 370 .30 414 .32 .4 12.3

Institutional cleaning supervisors ............... 108 141 .12 128 .10 30.9 18.2

Taxi drivers and chauffeurs ........................ 84 95 .08 107 .08 12.9 26.7

Sewing machine operators, garment ......... 673 568 .46 511 .39 –15.7 –24.1

Payroll and timekeeping clerks .................. 192 182 .15 163 .13 –5.6 –15.2

Artists and commercial artists .................... 184 240 .20 272 .21 30.2 47.3

Combination machine tool setters,

setup operators, operators, and tenders 95 122 .10 109 .08 28.1 14.8

Cooks, restaurant ...................................... 485 630 .51 714 .55 29.9 47.0

Respiratory therapists ................................ 53 64 .05 73 .06 20.6 36.6

Machine feeders and offbearers ................ 278 296 .24 265 .20 6.6 –4.7

Lawyers ...................................................... 527 722 .59 645 .50 37.1 22.6

Firefighters ................................................. 214 247 .20 220 .17 15.3 2.9

Machinists .................................................. 386 424 .35 378 .29 9.7 –2.1

Clinical lab technologists

and technicians ...................................... 231 245 .20 279 .21 6.0 20.6

Aircraft pilots and flight engineers .............. 66 82 .07 93 .07 24.0 41.2

Hairdressers, hairstylists,

and cosmetologists ................................. 525 687 .56 611 .47 30.8 16.4

Food preparation workers .......................... 879 1,078 .88 1,230 .95 22.6 39.9

Home appliance and power tool repairers . 75 86 .07 77 .06 15.2 2.3

Child care workers, private household ....... 401 347 .28 308 .24 –13.5 –23.2

Cutting and slicing machine setters,

operators, and tenders ........................... 82 81 .07 94 .07 –.7 14.4

Table 2.
20 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Occupation

1984

Total employment

Projected 1995

Projected

Actual 1995

Percent change,

198495

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Actual

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Bus drivers, school ..................................... 311 364 .30 420 .32 17.2 35.0

Writers and editors, including

 technical writers .................................... 194 246 .20 284 .22 26.9 46.5

Library assistants and

bookmobile drivers ................................. 97 107 .09 123 .09 9.7 26.6

Insurance sales workers ............................ 425 474 .39 415 .32 11.4 –2.5

Wholesale and retail buyers,

except farm products .............................. 189 214 .17 187 .14 13.2 –1.2

Cashiers ..................................................... 2,016 2,627 2.14 3,080 2.37 30.3 52.8

Insurance adjusters, examiners,

and investigators .................................... 109 138 .11 162 .12 26.7 48.9

Science and mathematics technicians ....... 233 268 .22 233 .18 15.3 .1

Automotive body and related repairers ...... 202 243 .20 210 .16 19.9 3.9

Bricklayers and stonemasons .................... 154 170 .14 148 .11 10.6 –4.2

Cleaners and servants,

private household ................................... 532 409 .33 484 .37 –23.1 –9.1

Personnel, training, and labor relations

specialists ............................................... 221 262 .21 310 .24 18.5 40.2

Underwriters ............................................... 90 112 .09 97 .07 24.1 7.4

Woodworking machine operators and

tenders, setters, and setup operators .... 72 77 .06 67 .05 6.7 –7.8

Inspectors and compliance officers,

except construction ................................ 120 133 .11 158 .12 10.9 32.2

Machine assemblers .................................. 51 61 .05 53 .04 19.8 2.9

Hotel desk clerks ....................................... 97 115 .09 137 .11 18.3 41.6

Drafters ...................................................... 326 367 .30 315 .24 12.7 –3.5

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ...... 384 442 .36 378 .29 14.9 –1.7

Farm managers .......................................... 164 180 .15 154 .12 9.8 –6.1

Gardeners and groundskeepers,

except farm ............................................ 597 639 .52 545 .42 7.0 –8.8

Physical therapists ..................................... 59 86 .07 104 .08 45.3 76.6

Designers ................................................... 198 252 .21 307 .24 27.7 55.5

Brokerage clerks ........................................ 51 60 .05 73 .06 18.0 43.7

Automotive mechanics ............................... 706 859 .70 728 .56 21.6 3.1

Dental hygienists ....................................... 83 107 .09 130 .10 28.7 56.9

Bus and truck mechanics and diesel

engine specialists ................................... 256 309 .25 262 .20 20.4 2.0

Water and liquid waste treatment

plant and systems operators .................. 71 79 .06 97 .07 11.6 36.8

Inspectors, testers, and graders,

precision ................................................. 701 791 .64 668 .51 13.0 –4.6

Drivers/salesworkers ................................. 253 276 .23 339 .26 9.2 33.9

Cooks, short order and fast food ............... 543 637 .52 785 .60 17.3 44.6

Order fillers, wholesale and retail sales ..... 188 182 .15 225 .17 –3.1 19.6

Roofers ...................................................... 137 156 .13 131 .10 13.5 –4.6

Counselors ................................................. 116 135 .11 168 .13 16.0 44.8

Office machine and cash

register servicers .................................... 53 70 .06 58 .04 31.8 9.9

Laundry and drycleaning machine

operators and tenders,

except pressing ...................................... 130 145 .12 182 .14 11.5 39.2

Millwrights .................................................. 87 94 .08 78 .06 7.0 –10.9

Customer service representatives,

 utilities ................................................... 104 122 .10 152 .12 16.7 45.9

Industrial truck and tractor operators ......... 426 381 .31 477 .37 –10.6 11.8

Upholsterers ............................................... 68 77 .06 64 .05 11.9 –6.8

Hosts and hostesses, restaurant/lounge/

coffee shop ............................................. 158 203 .17 255 .20 28.5 61.4

Reservation and transportation ticket

agents and travel clerks ......................... 106 115 .09 145 .11 9.0 37.0

File clerks ................................................... 223 231 .19 292 .22 3.4 30.6

Recreation workers .................................... 154 180 .15 228 .18 16.8 47.7

Psychologists ............................................. 92 110 .09 139 .11 19.8 51.5

Electronics repairers, commercial

and industrial equipment ........................ 77 91 .07 76 .06 18.4 –2.3

Bartenders ................................................. 366 466 .38 385 .30 27.4 5.1

Statistical clerks ......................................... 69 60 .05 77 .06 –12.6 11.4

Table 2.
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 21

Dentists ...................................................... 160 200 .16 165 .13 25.1 2.9

Tool and die makers ................................... 165 178 .15 146 .11 8.3 –11.2

Radiologic technologists and technicians .. 109 134 .11 172 .13 23.2 58.0

Musicians ................................................... 184 208 .17 267 .21 13.0 45.2

Accountants and auditors .......................... 902 1,213 .99 991 .76 34.5 9.8

Producers, directors, actors,

and entertainers ..................................... 61 76 .06 98 .08 23.6 59.7

Amusement and recreation attendants ...... 179 218 .18 282 .22 21.6 57.2

Head sawyers and saw machine

operators and tenders, setters,

and setup operators ............................... 75 80 .07 65 .05 6.6 –13.1

College and university faculty .................... 758 654 .53 848 .65 –13.8 11.8

Paper goods machine setters

and setup operators ............................... 60 63 .05 51 .04 4.4 –15.1

Sales agents, real estate ........................... 290 332 .27 270 .21 14.2 –7.2

Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance ... 58 64 .05 84 .06 10.5 43.6

Duplicating, mail, and other office

machine operators .................................. 152 175 .14 230 .18 15.5 51.4

Punch machine setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ................... 63 61 .05 49 .04 –2.7 –21.4

Flight attendants ........................................ 68 83 .07 109 .08 21.0 59.7

Chemical engineers ................................... 52 64 .05 51 .04 21.8 –2.3

Farm workers ............................................. 1,002 863 .70 692 .53 –13.8 –30.9

Postal mail carriers .................................... 240 248 .20 330 .25 3.3 37.9

Radio and television announcers

and newscasters .................................... 58 64 .05 50 .04 9.9 –12.6

Social workers ........................................... 342 419 .34 570 .44 22.5 66.6

Barbers ...................................................... 75 83 .07 65 .05 9.8 –13.4

Station installers and repairers,

telephone ................................................ 58 47 .04 37 .03 –18.1 –35.6

Insurance claims clerks ............................. 78 87 .07 120 .09 12.4 54.9

Teachers’ aides and educational

assistants ............................................... 594 700 .57 966 .74 17.9 62.8

Sheriffs and deputy sheriffs ....................... 61 62 .05 86 .07 2.9 42.3

Messengers ............................................... 90 100 .08 139 .11 11.2 54.6

Correction officers ...................................... 167 225 .18 314 .24 34.5 87.7

Civil engineers, including traffic engineers 188 243 .20 188 .14 29.4 .1

Telephone and cable television

line installers and repairers .................... 123 140 .11 198 .15 14.1 61.8

Textile machine setters and

setup operators ...................................... 58 49 .04 38 .03 –15.4 –34.7

Industrial engineers, except

safety engineers ..................................... 117 152 .12 116 .09 30.0 –.3

Vehicle washers and

equipment cleaners ................................ 165 177 .14 254 .20 7.4 54.5

Computer operators, except

peripheral equipment .............................. 241 350 .29 267 .21 45.5 11.1

Machine tool cutting operators

and tenders, metal and plastic ............... 172 164 .13 125 .10 –4.6 –27.4

Child care workers ..................................... 511 563 .46 821 .63 10.1 60.5

Nursery workers ......................................... 54 58 .05 85 .07 6.9 55.8

Mechanical engineers ................................ 231 309 .25 233 .18 33.6 1.0

Meat, poultry, and fish cutters

and trimmers, hand ................................ 98 93 .08 138 .11 –4.3 41.5

Lathe machine tool setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ................... 99 98 .08 74 .06 –.5 –25.0

Grinding machine setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ................... 89 87 .07 64 .05 –2.2 –28.1

Drill machine tool setters and

setup operators, metal and plastic ......... 65 64 .05 47 .04 –.7 –27.4

Electrical and electronic assemblers ......... 256 300 .24 218 .17 17.0 –15.0

Data-processing equipment repairers ........ 61 106 .09 77 .06 72.8 24.8

Switchboard operators ............................... 256 330 .27 238 .18 29.1 –7.0

Electrical and electronic equipment

assemblers, precision ............................ 175 205 .17 148 .11 17.5 –15.4

Occupation

1984

Total employment

Projected 1995

Projected

Actual 1995

Percent change,

198495

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Actual

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Table 2.
22 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Occupation

1984

Total employment

Projected 1995

Projected

Actual 1995

Percent change,

198495

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Actual

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Animal caretakers, except farm ................. 71 75 .06 124 .10 6.2 75.0

Computer programmers ............................. 440 782 .64 559 .43 77.6 26.9

Adult and vocational education teachers ... 303 352 .29 587 .45 15.9 93.6

Computer systems analysts,

engineers, and scientists ........................ 306 503 .41 860 .66 64.4 180.8

Structural and reinforcing metal workers ... 77 91 .07 63 .05 17.8 –17.8

Typists and word processors ...................... 922 954 .78 662 .51 3.5 –28.1

Bill and account collectors ......................... 112 144 .12 259 .20 28.4 131.1

Electrical and electronic technicians/

technologists .......................................... 310 460 .37 316 .24 48.4 2.0

Welding machine setters, operators,

and tenders ............................................ 131 157 .13 107 .08 19.9 –18.1

Reporters and correspondents .................. 69 83 .07 57 .04 19.9 –18.2

Custom tailors and sewers ......................... 112 123 .10 83 .06 10.5 –26.1

Emergency medical technicians ................ 62 66 .05 140 .11 5.3 124.5

Electromechanical equipment

assemblers, precision ............................. 61 75 .06 48 .04 24.0 –20.0

Adjustment clerks ...................................... 130 158 .13 384 .30 21.9 196.0

Precision instrument repairers ................... 57 65 .05 39 .03 13.4 –31.3

Service station attendants ......................... 289 287 .23 167 .13 –.8 –42.1

Electrical and electronics engineers .......... 399 607 .49 353 .27 52.2 –11.4

Roustabouts ............................................... 78 79 .06 27 .02 1.1 –65.2

Numerical error,

1995 (projected

minus actual)

Absolute

percent

error,1995

Actual industry

totals to

projected

staffing pattern

Actual staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals

Projected Actual

Share of total job

growth, 198495

–7,250 5.6 0.0 5.6 100.00 100.00

0 .1 22.4 17.8 .41 .28

0 .1 14.6 13.4 .10 .07

0 .1 6.5 6.6 .04 .03

6 .3 1.3 1.7 .85 .56

1 .4 13.5 10.9 –.06 –.04

–1 .5 1.0 2.0 .03 .02

–1 .6 13.0 12.0 .05 .04

0 .6 11.1 10.8 –.02 –.01

9 .7 8.8 3.8 –.45 –.35

–15 .8 2.0 3.2 .58 .46

–5 1.0 5.9 6.8 .17 .14

–34 1.0 4.5 6.0 2.00 1.52

2 1.0 2.7 5.5 .10 .06

–2 1.4 7.7 7.9 .16 .12

–2 1.4 30.2 24.7 .11 .09

–1 1.5 4.2 5.8 .06 .05

–14 1.5 11.1 11.5 1.39 1.02

–1 1.6 47.3 10.5 .06 .05

2 1.8 14.9 10.7 .06 .03

–4 2.0 8.6 9.0 .21 .16

–59 2.7 1.0 3.8 .87 .85

–9 2.8 4.2 .6 .33 .26

–3 2.8 10.1 11.5 .16 .12

–4 2.8 2.5 2.7 .12 .10

–10 2.8 12.4 10.8 .25 .21

–6 3.0 9.8 12.1 .26 .20

–5 3.1 4.4 8.6 .15 .12

Total, all occupations

Cooks, institution or cafeteria ....................

Aircraft mechanics .....................................

Mail clerks, except mail machine operators

and postal service ..................................

Supervisors of blue-collar workers .............

Butchers and meatcutters ..........................

Crushing and mixing machine

operators and tenders ............................

Highway maintenance workers ..................

Cannery workers ........................................

Farmers ......................................................

Stock clerks ...............................................

Industrial machinery mechanics ................

Secretaries .................................................

Pharmacists ...............................................

Loan and credit clerks ................................

Bus drivers, except school .........................

Tire repairers and changers .......................

Guards .......................................................

Brokers, real estate

Supervisors of police and detectives

Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail,

and farm products ..................................

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing

clerks ......................................................

Order clerks for materials, merchandise,

and service .............................................

Public relations specialists and publicity

writers .....................................................

Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters .......

Welders and cutters ...................................

Dental assistants .......................................

Dispatchers, except police, fire, and

ambulance ..............................................

Table 2.

Absolute

percent error, 1995
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 23

Occupation

Numerical

error,1995

(projected

minus actual)

Absolute

percent error,

1995

Actual industry

totals to

projected

staffing pattern

Actual staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals

Projected Actual

Share of total job

growth, 198495

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

61 3.2 15.2 10.1 2.54 1.49

4 3.2 8.6 3.9 .07 .03

3 3.2 15.7 15.2 –.06 –.05

–3 3.3 3.4 7.8 –.44 –.29

–3 3.3 20.9 19.9 .10 .08

2 3.6 1.6 5.2 .04 .02

–65 3.8 6.5 9.9 1.56 1.35

–4 3.9 20.7 10.9 .32 .24

–29 4.0 10.0 12.6 .64 .56

–7 4.0 13.4 7.2 –.02 .01

–23 4.2 12.2 8.7 .16 .21

3 4.3 14.3 20.8 .07 .04

–10 4.7 8.2 12.4 .49 .38

27 4.8 11.6 5.5 .51 .23

–137 5.2 4.1 8.4 2.42 2.26

6 5.2 10.1 3.1 .18 .10

–13 5.5 17.9 13.0 .13 .14

–19 5.8 5.0 2.6 .10 .15

11 5.9 11.0 4.7 –.24 –.21

8 5.9 11.2 2.4 .00 –.03

4 5.9 20.2 9.2 .06 .03

–241 6.1 1.6 4.6 2.78 2.95

14 6.2 12.1 5.6 .23 .10

–25 6.3 7.0 12.0 .27 .30

–196 6.3 6.7 12.6 2.75 2.74

7 6.4 8.7 3.0 .04 .00

64 6.6 12.2 3.8 .56 .11

9 6.7 14.1 9.5 .27 .15

16 6.8 2.6 4.5 .19 .06

6 7.2 23.0 13.3 .16 .08

–13 7.3 7.3 .3 .17 .18

6 7.3 9.1 17.8 .05 .01

–5 7.4 4.7 3.4 .04 .05

–7 7.4 2.6 11.3 .03 .05

10 7.7 7.9 .7 .12 .04

–41 7.8 6.1 .4 .11 .25

–13 8.2 9.6 16.0 .07 .10

6 8.6 1.4 9.6 .01 –.02

–6 8.9 .1 7.5 .03 .05

15 9.0 6.7 2.7 .26 .12

–179 9.2 3.7 12.3 2.70 2.63

–121 9.4 5.5 7.4 1.08 1.27

52 9.4 22.3 9.5 .70 .26

–40 9.5 2.3 5.8 .10 .24

12 10.2 46.4 22.8 .12 .03

–11 10.2 2.2 8.3 .08 .10

–13 10.3 2.0 8.3 .11 .13

Waiters and waitresses ..............................

Drywall installers and finishers ..................

Pressing machine operators and tenders,

textile, garment, and related ...................

Stenographers ...........................................

Numerical control machine tool operators

and tenders, metal/plastic ......................

Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters ................

Food counter, fountain, and related

workers ...................................................

Paralegals ..................................................

Licensed practical nurses ..........................

Machine-forming operators and tenders,

metal and plastic ....................................

Bank tellers ................................................

Machine builders and other precision

machine assemblers ..............................

Medical assistants .....................................

Electricians ................................................

Truck drivers, light and heavy ....................

Photographers ...........................................

Production, planning, and expediting

clerks ......................................................

Packaging and filling machine operators

and tenders ............................................

Textile drawout and winding machine

operators and tenders ............................

Sewing machine operators, nongarment ...

Carpet installers .........................................

Salespersons, retail ...................................

Heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration

mechanics and installers ........................

Police patrol officers ..................................

Janitors and cleaners, including maids/

houskeeping cleaners ............................

Extruding and forming machine setters,

operators, and tenders ...........................

Carpenters .................................................

Travel agents .............................................

Sheet metal workers and duct installers ....

Employment interviewers, private or public

employment service ...............................

Cost estimators ..........................................

Central office and PBX installers and

repairers .................................................

Insulation workers ......................................

Chemists ....................................................

Personnel clerks, except payroll and

timekeeping ............................................

Helpers, construction trades ......................

Librarians, professional ..............................

Chemical equipment controllers, operators,

and tenders ............................................

Police detectives and investigators ...........

Plastic molding machine operators and

tenders, setters, and setup operators ....

Registered nurses ......................................

Maintenance repairers, general utility ........

Physicians ..................................................

Painters and paperhangers, construction

and maintenance ....................................

Refuse collectors .......................................

Welfare eligibility workers and

interviewers ............................................

Concrete and terrazzo finishers .................

Table 2.

Absolute percent error, 1995
24 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Occupation

Numerical error,

1995 (projected

minus actual)

Absolute

percent error,

1995

Actual industry

totals to

projected

staffing pattern

Actual staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals

Projected Actual

Share of total job

growth, 198495

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

11 10.4 8.1 3.6 .11 .02

–12 10.4 17.7 9.0 .08 .10

–44 10.7 4.6 7.9 .01 .20

14 10.8 28.8 12.8 .21 .08

–12 10.8 6.0 18.0 .07 .10

57 11.1 2.7 9.2 –.66 –.70

19 11.4 16.7 3.7 –.07 –.13

–31 11.6 2.7 5.7 .35 .37

13 11.6 3.8 13.7 .17 .06

–83 11.7 4.2 9.4 .90 .98

–9 11.7 .8 12.2 .07 .08

31 11.8 11.7 .8 .11 –.06

76 11.8 9.5 3.8 1.22 .51

27 12.1 27.7 12.1 .20 .03

46 12.1 .4 11.9 .23 –.04

–34 12.1 2.3 12.7 .09 .21

–11 12.2 15.5 24.6 .10 .12

75 12.3 13.5 .2 1.01 .37

–152 12.4 .0 11.5 1.24 1.51

10 12.6 16.2 .0 .07 .01

39 12.7 6.4 5.9 –.34 –.40

–12 13.2 10.9 1.9 .00 .05

–55 13.2 14.6 23.8 .33 .47

–38 13.4 6.9 1.0 .33 .39

–16 13.4 2.8 15.4 .06 .11

59 14.2 23.5 6.1 .30 –.05

27 14.6 18.2 1.6 .16 –.01

–453 14.7 8.8 7.1 3.81 4.57

–24 14.9 12.1 3.7 .18 .23

35 15.2 25.3 9.3 .22 .00

32 15.4 24.4 5.9 .25 .03

23 15.4 20.7 3.3 .10 –.03

–75 15.4 20.1 5.9 –.77 –.21

–48 15.5 15.5 .7 .26 .38

15 15.6 19.4 1.3 .14 .03

10 15.7 15.9 .8 .03 –.02

–26 16.1 11.3 5.1 .08 .17

9 16.4 2.4 21.7 .06 .01

–23 16.5 8.6 8.6 .11 .17

53 16.8 3.4 10.9 .26 –.05

64 16.9 21.7 3.6 .36 –.03

26 17.0 17.9 .8 .10 –.04

94 17.2 36.2 14.1 .26 –.22

–19 17.8 6.6 12.2 .17 .19

–55 17.9 4.9 4.3 .34 .47

–13 17.9 11.2 6.4 .06 .10

131 17.9 28.9 7.9 .95 .09

–23 18.0 6.5 12.2 .15 .20

47 18.1 28.0 7.4 .33 .02

–18 18.4 5.2 13.8 .05 .11

Mobile heavy equipment mechanics ..........

New accounts clerks, banking ...................

Data entry keyers, except composing .......

Institutional cleaning supervisors ...............

Taxi drivers and chauffeurs ........................

Sewing machine operators, garment .........

Payroll and timekeeping clerks ..................

Artists and commercial artists ....................

Combination machine tool setters, setup

operators, operators, and tenders ..........

Cooks, restaurant ......................................

Respiratory therapists ................................

Machine feeders and offbearers ................

Lawyers ......................................................

Firefighters .................................................

Machinists ..................................................

Clinical lab technologists

and technicians ......................................

Aircraft pilots and flight engineers .............

Hairdressers, hairstylists,

and cosmetologists ................................

Food preparation workers ..........................

Home appliance and power

tool repairers ..........................................

Child care workers, private household .......

Cutting and slicing machine setters,

operators, and tenders ...........................

Bus drivers, school ....................................

Writers and editors, including technical

writers .....................................................

Library assistants and bookmobile

drivers .....................................................

Insurance sales workers ............................

Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm

products ..................................................

Cashiers .....................................................

Insurance adjusters, examiners, and

investigators ...........................................

Science and mathematics technicians .......

Automotive body and related repairers ......

Bricklayers and stonemasons ....................

Cleaners and servants,

private household ...................................

Personnel, training, and labor relations

specialists ...............................................

Underwriters ...............................................

Woodworking machine operators and

tenders, setters, and setup operators ....

Inspectors and compliance officers,

except construction ................................

Machine assemblers ..................................

Hotel desk clerks .......................................

Drafters ......................................................

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ......

Farm managers ..........................................

Gardeners and groundskeepers,

except farm ............................................

Physical therapists .....................................

Designers ...................................................

Brokerage clerks ........................................

Automotive mechanics ...............................

Dental hygienists .......................................

Bus and truck mechanics and diesel

engine specialists ...................................

Water and liquid waste treatment plant

and systems operators ...........................

Table 2.

Absolute percent error, 1995
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 25

Occupation

Numerical error,

1995 (projected

minus actual)

Absolute

percent error,

1995

Actual industry

totals to

projected

staffing pattern

Actual staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals

Projected Actual

Share of total job

growth, 198495

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

123 18.4 5.2 9.0 .57 –.14

–63 18.5 15.6 6.9 .15 .37

–148 18.9 9.3 9.4 .58 1.04

–43 19.0 18.1 .8 –.04 .16

25 19.0 24.7 3.4 .12 –.03

–34 19.9 1.9 17.3 .12 .22

12 19.9 18.8 4.5 .11 .02

–36 19.9 5.0 14.9 .09 .22

16 20.0 15.1 3.6 .04 –.04

–31 20.0 31.5 16.5 .11 .21

–96 20.1 18.4 2.7 –.28 .22

13 20.1 16.8 5.6 .05 –.02

–52 20.3 12.3 10.7 .28 .42

–30 20.5 4.8 22.2 .06 .17

–61 20.8 16.0 6.8 .05 .29

–48 20.9 4.1 15.2 .16 .32

–29 21.0 6.5 11.6 .11 .20

16 21.1 15.3 4.4 .09 –.01

82 21.2 35.7 10.9 .62 .08

–17 21.5 16.0 9.2 –.05 .03

35 21.5 34.9 8.5 .25 .02

32 21.9 7.8 12.2 .08 –.08

–38 22.0 11.4 11.9 .16 .27

–59 22.2 2.4 22.1 .15 .36

223 22.5 23.0 .0 1.94 .38

–22 22.6 2.2 12.6 .09 .16

–64 22.7 1.0 21.4 .24 .44

15 22.7 22.6 1.2 .03 –.04

–194 22.8 4.9 18.8 –.65 .38

12 23.0 27.7 3.7 .02 –.04

62 23.1 34.1 5.6 .26 –.09

–19 23.1 10.8 13.9 .04 .11

–55 23.7 21.0 9.1 .15 .34

12 23.9 7.6 12.9 –.01 –.06

–26 24.2 3.9 27.1 .09 .18

13 24.6 15.3 9.2 .07 –.01

171 24.7 11.7 6.7 –.87 –1.33

–83 25.1 6.6 19.7 .05 .39

13 25.8 10.2 17.4 .04 –.03

–151 26.5 10.5 15.9 .48 .98

17 26.8 30.2 2.1 .05 –.04

10 27.1 7.6 18.1 –.07 –.09

–33 27.5 22.1 8.7 .06 .18

–266 27.6 7.6 20.8 .66 1.60

–24 27.7 17.0 12.9 .01 .11

–39 28.1 23.8 5.6 .06 .21

–89 28.3 20.0 10.3 .36 .63

55 29.3 22.9 4.9 .34 .00

Inspectors, testers, and graders,

precision .................................................

Driver/salesworkers ...................................

Cooks, short order and fast food ...............

Order fillers, wholesale and retail sales .....

Roofers ......................................................

Counselors .................................................

Office machine and cash

register servicers ....................................

Laundry and drycleaning machine operators

and tenders, except pressing .................

Millwrights ..................................................

Customer service representatives,

utilities ....................................................

Industrial truck and tractor operators .........

Upholsterers ...............................................

Hosts and hostesses, restaurant/lounge/

coffee shop .............................................

Reservation and transportation ticket agents

and travel clerks .....................................

File clerks ...................................................

Recreation workers ....................................

Psychologists .............................................

Electronics repairers, commercial and

industrial equipment ...............................

Bartenders .................................................

Statistical clerks

Dentists ......................................................

Tool and die makers ...................................

Radiologic technologists and technicians ..

Musicians ...................................................

Accountants and auditors ..........................

Producers, directors, actors,

and entertainers .....................................

Amusement and recreation attendants ......

Head sawyers and saw machine operators

and tenders, setters, and setup

operators ................................................

College and university faculty ....................

Paper goods machine setters and setup

operators ................................................

Sales agents, real estate ...........................

Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance ...

Duplicating, mail, and other office machine

operators ................................................

Punch machine setters and setup operators,

metal and plastic ....................................

Flight attendants ........................................

Chemical engineers ...................................

Farm workers .............................................

Postal mail carriers ....................................

Radio and television announcers and

newscasters ...........................................

Social workers ...........................................

Barbers ......................................................

Station installers and repairers,

telephone ................................................

Insurance claims clerks .............................

Teachers’ aides and educational

assistants ...............................................

Sheriffs and deputy sheriffs .......................

Messengers ...............................................

Correction officers ......................................

Civil engineers, including traffic

engineers ................................................

Table 2.

Absolute percent error,

1995
26 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

Occupation

Numerical error,

1995 (projected

minus actual)

Absolute

percent

error,1995

Actual industry

totals to

projected

staffing pattern

Actual staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals

Projected Actual

Share of total job

growth, 198495

ContinuedEmployment, by occupation, 1984 actual and 1995 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

–59 29.5 38.1 13.7 .11 .33

11 29.6 39.1 4.9 –.06 –.09

35 30.5 4.9 21.0 .22 .00

–78 30.5 2.6 29.0 .08 .39

83 31.0 35.3 1.6 .68 .11

39 31.4 17.8 10.4 –.05 –.20

–258 31.4 19.1 15.5 .32 1.33

–27 31.4 16.3 16.1 .02 .13

75 32.3 14.5 14.8 .48 .01

–45 32.4 6.0 27.9 –.03 .17

24 32.6 13.0 15.4 .00 –.11

23 36.1 21.0 13.3 –.01 –.11

17 36.8 16.6 17.2 .00 –.08

82 37.6 4.6 43.0 .27 –.16

29 38.5 33.2 3.1 .28 .07

92 38.9 48.9 7.4 .46 –.08

57 38.9 6.8 48.7 .19 –.12

–49 39.3 13.2 22.4 .03 .23

223 40.0 46.2 3.3 2.13 .51

–235 40.1 26.4 15.1 .30 1.22

–356 41.5 39.8 3.6 1.23 2.38

27 43.3 47.6 2.8 .09 –.06

292 44.0 55.5 8.2 .20 –1.11

–115 44.5 42.5 3.1 .20 .63

144 45.5 25.7 17.7 .94 .03

50 46.3 29.6 13.8 .16 –.10

26 46.6 16.6 10.9 .09 –.05

41 49.4 47.9 3.2 .07 –.12

–74 53.1 39.0 23.1 .02 .33

27 55.1 .7 42.3 .09 –.05

–226 58.8 59.5 .4 .18 1.09

26 65.0 21.4 22.4 .05 –.08

120 71.4 85.6 16.3 –.01 –.52

253 71.8 41.4 20.2 1.30 –.20

52 190.1 37.6 114.6 .01 –.22

Telephone and cable television line

installers and repairers ...........................

Textile machine setters and setup

operators ................................................

Industrial engineers, except safety

engineers ................................................

Vehicle washers and equipment cleaners .

Computer operators, except peripheral

equipment ...............................................

Machine tool cutting operators and tenders,

metal and plastic ....................................

Child care workers .....................................

Nursery workers .........................................

Mechanical engineers ................................

Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and

trimmers, hand

Lathe machine tool setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ...................

Grinding machine setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ...................

Drill machine tool setters and setup

operators, metal and plastic ...................

Electrical and electronic assemblers .........

Data-processing equipment repairers ........

Switchboard operators ...............................

Electrical and electronic equipment

assemblers, precision ............................

Animal caretakers, except farm .................

Computer programmers .............................

Adult and vocational education teachers ...

Computer systems analysts,

engineers, and scientists ........................

Structural and reinforcing metal workers ...

Typists and word processors .....................

Bill and account collectors .........................

Electrical and electronic technicians/

technologists ..........................................

Welding machine setters, operators, and

tenders ...................................................

Reporters and correspondents ..................

Custom tailors and sewers ........................

Emergency medical technicians ................

Electromechanical equipment assemblers,

precision .................................................

Adjustment clerks ......................................

Precision instrument repairers ...................

Service station attendants .........................

Electrical and electronics engineers ..........

Roustabouts ...............................................

Table 2.

was expected to lead to declining demand for vocational education and training. However, the growing number of

both entry-level and experienced workers in need of vocational training or retraining in order to update job skills and

keep up with rapidly changing technology had more of an impact on demand

for these teachers than was anticipated.

Likewise, errors in projections for

computer-related occupations were a

significant factor contributing to the underestimate of employment for professional specialty occupations.6

 A closer

examination of the simulated matrices

for certain others reveals the cause of the

errors to be largely a result of incorrect

assumptions behind the projections of

the utilization of these workers by industry. (See table 4.) In the case of computer programmers, highly significant

increases were projected across all industries as improvements in computer

hardware and software made the technology more versatile, cheaper, and

easier to use. But it was precisely these

improvements that led to more moderAbsolute percent error, 1995
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 27

ate growth, as computer users, other

computer professionals, and automation

were able to take over many of the tasks

previously performed only by programmers. Similarly, moderate increases

were expected for computer operators

and operators of peripheral electronic

data-processing equipment across all

industries as computer usage rose

throughout the economy. However, expanding technologies not only reduced

both the size and cost of computer

equipment, but also automated the tasks

previously performed by numerous

operators.

In contrast to the increases in employment projected for programmers, significant decreases were projected across

all industries for data entry keyers, except composing, as a result of anticipated technological change. Although

the trend was correctly anticipated, technology appears to have had an even

greater impact on these workers than

was projected. Virtually the entire error

in the projections for data entry keyers,

composing, can be attributed to incorrect staffing patterns.

Overall industry employment for

health services was significantly underestimated for hospitals, as well as doctors, nursing homes, and miscellaneous

health services. Absolute errors for

health-related occupations ranged from

53 percent for emergency medical technicians to 1 percent for pharmacists. Although the industry projections had a

profound impact on estimated employment for these occupations, much of the

error in the individual health-related

occupations also can be attributed to errors in staffing patterns. (See table 5.)

For example, the 1984 projection of a

growing demand for physicians’ assistants was realized as the health care industry began to focus more and more

on cost containment. The Bureau projected the employment of physicians’

assistants to increase moderately in hospitals and significantly in outpatient

care facilities. However, the projection

was too conservative. Similarly, the impact of a growing demand for rehabilitation and long-term care services was

underestimated, as the employment of

occupational therapists, projected to

grow much faster than average at 36

percent, grew by a phenomenal 159 percent. In the case of licensed practical

nurses, the projection was relatively accurate, off by only 4 percent, a result of

both underprojected industry totals for

health services and incorrect staffing

patterns, which offset each other. Along

with changes in patient care requirements, the trend toward a reliance on

nursing personnel with higher levels of

clinical skill was expected to slow

growth among licensed practical nurses.

However, rapid industry growth in

health services and an aging population

spurred more demand than was originally expected in nursing homes and

residential care facilities.

The BLS evaluation of industry projections also revealed that employment

in manufacturing was projected to increase over the 1984–95 period, rather

than decline. As a result, the majority of

the occupations with declining employment that were projected to increase are

in manufacturing and include engineers,

precision production workers, machine

operators and tenders, and handworkers

and fabricators. For example, the employment of workers concentrated in industries that manufacture computer and

office equipment, electrical industrial

Sources of projection error for education-related occupations, 1995, and

projected and actual share of total job growth, 198495

College and

university faculty ............. 22.8 4.9 18.8 –0.65 0.38

Adult and vocational

education teachers ......... 40.1 26.4 15.1 .30 1.22

Teachers’ aides and

educational assistants .... 27.6 7.6 20.8 .66 1.60

Occupation Absolute

percent

error

Absolute

percent error

(actual

industry totals

to projected

staffing

pattern)

Absolute

percent error

(actual

staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals)

Share of total

job growth

Projected Actual

Sources of projection error for computer-related occupations, 1995, and

projected and actual share of total job growth, 198495

Computer programmers ..... 40.0 46.2 3.3 2.13 0.51

Computer operators,

 except of peripheral

 equipment ........................ 31.0 35.3 1.6 .68 .11

Operators of peripheral

 electronic data-processing

 equipment ........................ 100.7 108.4 4.2 .12 –.05

Data entry keyers,

 except composing ............ 10.7 4.6 7.9 .01 .20

Data entry keyers,

 composing ........................ 79.8 79.9 5.3 .06 –.03

Occupation Absolute

percent

error

Absolute

percent error

(actual

industry totals

to projected

staffing

pattern)

Absolute

percent error

(actual

staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals)

Share of total

job growth

Projected Actual

Table 3.

Table 4.
28 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

apparatus, electronic components and

accessories, and aerospace components,

such as those workers in occupations

listed in table 6, was projected to grow

slightly when, in fact, it fell from 1984

to 1995. As indicated in the table, the

projected industry totals were the major

factor contributing to the error for these

occupations.

Implications for future

analyses

The most recent occupational projections to be evaluated were those ending

in the year 1990. Looking at the major

occupational groups, we can readily see

that the projections for 1995 appear more

accurate overall than do the 1990 projections. No major group was off by

more than in the past, and the largest

absolute error for a major group was only

11.3 percent, compared with 22 percent

in 1990 for the group, marketing and

sales occupations. It is important to remember, however, that projections on

such an aggregate scale are, by their nature, uncertain. Because individual occupations, and not major groups, are

analyzed, errors are compounded as

these occupations are combined. The

detailed occupations that make up each

group can be large enough that any error

in their individual projection can affect

the outcome for the overall major group.

In developing the detailed 1984–95 occupational projections, analysts reviewed

all available data from both the OES survey and the Current Population Survey

(CPS) and projected changes in the occupation-industry cells accordingly, bringing knowledge gained through experience and through studies undertaken in

preparing the Occupational Outlook

Handbook.As a result, numerous changes

were made to the occupational coefficients—changes affecting the proportion

of an occupation within each industry—

as analytical judgments were translated

into numerical estimates. A BLS bulletin

indicates that, in order to maintain consistency among judgments of the analysts,

the following guidelines for increasing

or decreasing coefficients were implemented to develop the initial projected

coefficients for all occupations across all

industries:7 small change—1 to 4 percent; moderate change—5 to 9 percent;

significant change—10 to 20 percent;

and very significant change—20 or

more percent. The evaluation of the

1984–95 projections has provided analysts the first chance to look back at their

work.

Prior to the current evaluation, every

BLS evaluation of its occupational projections revealed the projections to be

conservative. As the analysis of both individual projections for detailed occupations and percent-change ranges in the

Occupational Outlook Handbook indicate, the 1984–95 projections are also

on the conservative side. The majority

of the projections were clustered around

average growth, when, in actuality, more

occupations appear to have grown much

faster than the average or to have declined. The inherent conservatism contributed to overall errors in staffing patterns as well, and part of the reason

appears to have been that analysts were

too conservative in projecting the matrix coefficients. This trend toward conservatism is recognized by the Bureau,

and since 1984, guidelines for projecting the changes in the occupational coSources of projection error for health-related occupations, 1995, and

projected and actual share of total job growth, 198495

Physicians’ assistants ........ 42.4 34.7 11.4 0.07 0.16

Occupational therapists ..... 47.4 39.9 13.0 .05 .15

Occupational therapy

assistants and aides ....... 41.9 33.8 13.6 .01 .03

Emergency medical

technicians ..................... 53.1 39.0 23.1 .02 .33

Licensed practical

nurses ............................. 4.0 10.0 12.6 .64 .56

Occupation Absolute

percent

error

Absolute

percent error

(actual

industry totals

to projected

staffing

pattern)

Absolute

percent error

(actual

staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals)

Share of total

job growth

Projected Actual

Table 5.

Sources of projection error for production workers, 1995, and projected

and actual share of total job growth, 198495

Occupation Absolute

percent

error

Absolute

percent error

(actual

industry totals

to projected

staffing

pattern)

Absolute

percent error

(actual

staffing

pattern to

projected

industry totals)

Share of total

job growth

Projected Actual

Table 6.

Aircraft assemblers,

precision ......................... 27.1 16.0 52.1 0.02 –0.01

Electrical and electronic

equipment assemblers,

precision ......................... 38.9 6.8 48.7 .19 –.12

Electromechanical

equipment assemblers,

precision ......................... 55.1 .7 42.3 .09 –.05

Electrical and electronic

assemblers ..................... 37.6 4.6 43.0 .27 –.16
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 29

efficients have been revised. For example, in developing the most recent

round of projections from 1994 to 2005,

the Bureau set forth the following guidelines for interpreting the projected range

of changes in the coefficients: small

change—10 percent; moderate change

—20 percent; significant change—35

percent; and very significant change—

50 percent or more. Expanding the range

for identifying small, moderate, and

large changes should clearly have an

impact on the conservatism inherent in

the methodology.

With the help of the simulated matrices prepared for the current evaluation,

however, it has been possible to pinpoint

the major source of error for each detailed occupation. Although the impact

of good industry projections on developing good occupational projections

cannot be underestimated, the chief

weakness appears to be in projecting

staffing patterns. In the simulated matrix for which the projected staffing patterns were applied to actual 1995 industry totals, the sum of the absolute errors,

weighted by 1995 employment, was 7.7

percent. By contrast, in the matrix for

which actual 1995 staffing patterns were

applied to projected 1995 industry totals, the sum of the absolute errors,

weighted by 1995 employment, dropped

to 5.6 percent.

In addition to the influence of conservative coefficient change factors on

the projections, the impacts of features

such as technological change and trends

that were not fully realized contributed

significantly to errors in staffing patterns. Incorrect analytical judgments relating to the rate and impact of technological change and to trends such as

outsourcing and the growth of temporary help agencies played a large role in

this regard. The analysis behind the projection for typists is a case in point. As

mentioned by Neal Rosenthal in the introduction to this article, the use of computers and word-processing equipment

was expected to have a negative impact

on the employment of typists and word

processors across all industries. But because it was assumed that a very large

number of establishments were already

using such equipment, and because future technological advances in computing technology were not fully realized

at the time, the declining trend in the employment of typists and word processors

was not expected to accelerate. The

analysis wound up underestimating the

impact of changing technology, as actual employment in 1995 fell short of

projected employment by more than 290

thousand workers.

Similar to unforeseeable events such

as the reduction in defense spending resulting from the breakup of the Soviet

Union, changes brought about by technology are becoming harder to predict.

For example, the impact of Internet technology is nowhere near being fully realized today, just as the expansion of

computer technology into both the home

and the workplace, as well as the impact of the personal computer, was recognized, but not fully accounted for, in

past projection cycles.

Footnotes

1

 In discussing the accuracy of the projected

distribution of employment growth among major

groups, it is worth addressing a claim made by

John H. Bishop in a recent article evaluating the

accuracy of BLS projections that “The BLS systematically under-projects the growth of skilled jobs

and over-projects the growth of unskilled jobs”

(John H. Bishop, “Is the Market for College Graduates Headed for a Bust? Demand and Supply Responses to Rising College Wage Premiums,” New

England Economic Review, May–June 1996, pp.

115–34, quote from p. 123). In his comparison of

projected and actual growth for the major occupational groups from 1984 to 1995, Bishop concluded that BLS projected shares of employment

growth for professional, technical, and managerial jobs, and for operative, laborer, and service

jobs were “far off the mark.” If we examine the

projected and actual shares of employment growth

presented in table 1, however, this does not appear to be the case. Using Current Population Survey-(CPS) based data as the “actual” data to compare with the projections, rather than data based

on the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

survey, which the Bureau uses in developing its

projections, Bishop concluded that, from 1984 to

1995, professional, technical, and managerial jobs

accounted for 58.3 percent of employment growth,

and operative, laborer, and service jobs accounted

for 15.9 percent.However, OES-survey-based data

paint a different picture. The problem is that the

two data sources are not comparable when one estimates employment growth shares for the major

occupational groups. BLS industry-occupation data

(see table 1) indicate that professional, technical,

and managerial jobs actually accounted for only

38.5 percent of employment growth from 1984 to

1995, which is much closer to the projected 35.5

percent. Likewise, operative, laborer, and service

jobs accounted for 26.3 percent, only slightly lower

than the projected 27.8 percent. (See John H.

Bishop and Shani Carter, “How accurate are recent BLS occupational projections?” Monthly Labor Review, October 1991, pp. 37–43; and John

H. Bishop and Shani Carter, “The Worsening

Shortage of College-Graduate Workers,” Educational Evaluation and Policy Analysis, Fall 1991,

pp. 221–46, as well as Bishop, “The Market for

College Graduates.”)

2

 More details on assumptions leading to the

overprojection of engineers are presented in Occupational Outlook Quarterly (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, Fall 1997).

3

 Details on all 348 occupations included in the

evaluation are available from the Office of Employment Projections. Data comparing employment, percent changes, and employment growth

categories for all 348 occupations included in the

evaluation appear in the Fall 1997 Occupational

Outlook Quarterly.

4

 Only 132 occupations were covered in the

evaluation of the 1990 projections. (See Neal H.

Rosenthal, “Evaluating the 1990 projections of

occupational employment,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1992, pp. 32–48.)

5

 See pages 9–15, this issue.

6

 The detailed professional occupation with

the largest underestimate of employment was

computer engineers, scientists, and systems analysts. So as not to lose a group with significant

employment change in the evaluation, the three

occupations were combined in order to accommodate the change in the occupational classification when computer engineers and the residual,

all other computer scientists, were added to the

OES survey in 1989. Though it is not classification pure—that is to say, a change occurred with

the addition of computer engineers in 1989—the

combined group is assumed to account for the

same group of workers for which projections were

developed in 1984. The OES survey definition of

what computer engineers do is “Analyze data

processing requirements to plan EDP system to

provide system capabilities required for projected

work loads. Plan layout and installation of new

systems or modifications of existing system. May

set up and control analog or hybrid computer systems to solve scientific or engineering problems”

(Occupational Employment Statistics Dictionary

of Occupations: 1988–1996 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, September 1995)). Because the title

“computer engineer” is often interpreted to denote engineers who design computer hardware,

it is likely that some workers in the group were

being collected as part of all other engineers or

as electrical and electronics engineers. However,
30 Monthly Labor Review September 1997

1995 BLS Projections

the historical time series does not reveal any great

shift in employment when the separate title was

added, indicating that computer engineers were

already distributed between electrical and electronics engineers and other computer professionals. CPS data show a similar trend, and there is no

separate category for computer engineers.

Some shift in employment away from engineers

Technical note

Framework of the projections. The 1984–

95 projections of occupational employment

were developed within the framework of an

industry-occupation matrix containing 378

industries and more than 500 occupations.

Data used to develop the 1984 matrix and

projected 1995 matrix came from a variety

of sources. For industries covered by the

Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

survey, the most current survey data were

used to develop the occupational distribution or staffing patterns for estimating 1984

wage and salary employment. Employment

by occupation in each industry was derived

by multiplying the occupational distribution

of employment by 1984 wage and salary

worker employment for each industry, each

of which was obtained from the BLS Current

Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Both the

CES and OES surveys are surveys of business

establishments, covering only wage and salary workers. The 1984 CPS data were used to

develop the occupational distribution patterns for workers in agriculture and private

households, as well as to develop economywide estimates of self-employed and

unpaid family workers by occupation. Occupational distribution patterns for the Federal Government were developed from data

compiled by the Office of Personnel Management. Data from the National Center For

Education Statistics (NCES) were used for

teachers, and data from other independent

sources were utilized for select occupations.1

The most recent OES survey data available for developing the 1984 matrix came

from 1991 for mining, construction, finance,

insurance, real estate, and services, other

than hospitals and education; from 1982 for

trade, transportation, communications, public utilities, and State and local governments;

and from 1983 for manufacturing industries

and hospitals. The OES survey occupational

classification system was revised significantly in 1983, to make it compatible with

the newly released Standard Occupational

Classification. As a result, only the 1983 survey of manufacturing and hospitals conformed to the 1983 classification, so BLS analysts “forced” the 1981 and 1982 data into

the new 1983 configuration.2

 However, some

occupations were split into more than one

occupation or had not been previously identified separately. One of the difficulties in

evaluating the 1984–95 set of projections

results from the 1984 matrix being constructed with OES survey data collected prior

to 1983. The Bureau has developed a national industry-occupation matrix time series

covering the 1983–95 period. The series is

as consistent as possible with the occupational classification used in the 1994 matrix,

which was the most current matrix available

when the historical time series were developed.3

 The actual 1995 employment data

used for purposes of the current evaluation

were taken from that time series. The 1986

matrix, the first matrix in which all of the

OES survey data came from surveys conducted after 1983, was used to develop the

1984 data. For this reason, the original 1984–

95 published matrix data were not comparable to the actual 1984 and 1995 data published in the historical time series.

In order to reconcile the projected matrix

with the historical time series for the purpose of the evaluation, simulated 1984–95

projections were created. To develop these

projections, each employment cell coefficient (percent of industry employment accounted for by the occupation) in the 1984

matrix in the historical time series was multiplied by the 1984–95 percent change in that

coefficient (change factor) in the original

1984 and 1995 matrices, and the resulting

distribution of occupational employment by

industry was then benchmarked to the projected industry employment in the original

1995 industry projections. In the resulting

simulated projections for most occupations,

the projected 1984–95 percent changes remained the same or were very close to the

original projections, but the data were defined consistently with the historical time

series. The employment of self-employed

and unpaid family workers was taken directly from the original published 1984–95

projections, because the CPS data in 1984

were comparable to the CPS data in 1995, with

some minor exceptions. Occupations in the

historical matrix that did not appear in the

original 1984–95 projections matrix were

aggregated into the appropriate residuals; for

example, loan interviewers were aggregated

into the “all other clerical occupations”

residual.

Once the data were prepared, the next task

was to select the occupations for evaluation.

Occupations were selected only if they met

certain criteria. To begin with, all residual occupations were dropped from the evaluation,

because occupations for which there were

only aggregated data were not necessarily

comparable, as indicated in the preceding

paragraph. Of the remaining detailed occupations, only those for which the definition

remained comparable over the projection

period were included. Occupations also were

dropped if examination of the historical time

series indicated inconsistencies with logical

expectations for the year-to-year total employment trend. Because occupations covered in the OES surveys changed over time as

improvements in the quality of the survey

were made, problems occurred in the development of comparable time series. In order

to make the historical time series as consistent as possible with the 1994 matrix, a number of steps were taken to achieve uniformity

over time.4

 For example, occupations appearing in an earlier matrix that were collapsed in

the 1994 matrix were also collapsed in the

time series. Finally, seven occupations were

eliminated because the base-year numbers

from the original 1984 published matrix were

so different from those in the historical 1984

matrix, that they did not appear comparable.

Consequently, additional occupations were

eliminated because the difference in employment between the original 1984 published matrix and the 1984 historical matrix

was too large, based on certain criteria.5

Other data errors. The discussion in the

text of the article, as well as in this technical

note, has focused on errors in individual projections that can be traced back to incorrectly

anticipated changes in staffing patterns or incorrect industry projections. Also, comparability problems stemming from inconsistencies in the classification system over time

were highlighted. However, it is important

to bear in mind that other data problems exist and that differences in actual and proprobably accounts for a portion of the growth in

this occupation. Nonetheless, even with the addition of the title “computer engineer,” the remarkable growth of computer-related occupations was

underestimated, in large part due to the unanticipated rapid advancement of computing technology, particularly the expansion of personal computers. Over the 1984–95 period, the employment

of computer systems analysts and scientists was

projected to increase 64 percent, making this occupation one of the 10 projected fastest growing

ones. However, employment actually increased

181 percent over the period. 7

 See Employment Projections for 1995: Data

and Methods, Bulletin 2253 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1986).
Monthly Labor Review September 1997 31

jected employment levels are not always due

to projection errors. Consequently, real employment trends in an occupation may not

Footnote to the technical

note

1

 Prior to 1990, NCES data were used for preschool teachers and kindergarten and elementary

school teachers. However, in the 1990, 1992, and

1994 matrices, OES survey data were employed for

these occupations, but the OES classification broke

teachers up into elementary school teachers, on the

one hand, and preschool and kindergarten teachers, on the other. Similar difficulties were encountered with higher education teachers. For these reasons, employment data for elementary school

teachers and preschool and kindergarten teachers

were rolled up in the historical time series, but

dropped from the current evaluation.

necessarily be measured by comparable surveys 10 years apart. And although survey data

are generally considered reliable, sampling

and response errors certainly had an impact

on the data in both the initial and the terminal

years of the projection period evaluated.

2

 A comprehensive methodological statement

outlining BLS data sources and procedures is published in Employment Projections for 1995.

3

 For more information on the methodology used

to develop the projections, see the appendix to the

series of articles under “Employment Outlook:

1994–2005,” Monthly Labor Review, November

1995, pp. 85–87; and BLS Handbook of Methods,

Bulletin 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April

1997).

4

 For a more comprehensive methodological

statement, The National Industry-Occupation Employment Matrix: 1983–1995 Time Series, a technical note available from the Office of Employment Projections. 5

 Specifically, occupations were dropped if the

original 1984 level of employment differed by more

than 40,000, but less than 100,000, from the actual

1984 level in the historical matrix, and the percent

difference in 1984 employment was more than 50

percent; or if the original 1984 level of employment differed by more than 100,000 from the actual 1984 level in the historical matrix, and the

percent difference in 1984 employment was more

than 30 percent.

Errata

In the article, “Employment trends in textiles and apparel, 1973–

2005,” Monthly Labor Review, August 1997, table 6 (page 33) is

mislabeled. The title should be (correction in italics):

Table 6. Employment in the apparel industry: 1983, 1994, 2005

Also, in the table, the total for all occupations in 1983 is 1,163

(in thousands).