decline in prices during 2011. In each case, 

the volatility resulted from both supply and 

demand factors.

As seen in chart 1, after advancing 34.9 percent in 2010, the price index for corn reached 

a 2-year high at the beginning of 2011 and 

continued to rise steadily through June. The 

index increased 32.5 percent over the first 6 

months of the year. Many of the same factors 

that drove up corn prices in 2010 continued 

to drive prices in 2011. On the supply side, 

Mexico, already one of the largest importers of grain, was forced to increase imports 

because freezing weather reduced the country’s grain production by as much as 12 percent.1 Cold and wet weather through much 

U.S. agricultural exports had a volatile year in 

2011. The price index for exported agricultural 

goods increased 9.4 percent during the first 

6 months of the year, after rising 20.5 percent 

in 2010 and 9.2 percent in 2009. However, during the final 6 months of the year, agricultural 

goods prices sharply declined by 7.9 percent. 

The primary contributors to the rise and subsequent downturn were grains, oilseeds, and 

cotton. Corn, soybeans, wheat, and cotton all 

experienced an increase and then subsequent 

Current Price Topics

A Rollercoaster Year 

for Export Agriculture

Prices

1

Import and Export Prices: Fourth Quarter 2011

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics February 2012 Volume 2, Number 13

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

2010 2011

Export corn Export soybeans Export wheat

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Index value (January 2010 = 100)

Chart 1. U.S. Export Prices Indexes for selected grains, January 2010–December 

2011
2

of the midwestern United States in April also 

helped drive corn prices higher as planting 

was delayed in many areas and total acreage 

planted was expected to fall.2

On the demand side, high demand for corn 

was also a major factor in the rise in corn prices 

during the first part of 2011. The increase in 

demand was especially acute for the feed corn 

needed to meet the growing demand for meat 

products in Asia. In addition, 38.5 percent of the 

corn usage during the 2010–2011 season went 

towards ethanol production, taking a large 

amount of corn off the world food market.3

In contrast to the first half of the year, the final 

6 months of 2011 were marked by a large 

amount of volatility. At the end of the 2011, 

corn prices had fallen 18.6 percent, leaving an 

increase of only 7.9 percent for the year. Much 

of the second-half decline in the price of corn 

was attributable to an increase in supply, 

with U.S. farmers planting 91.92 million acres, 

the second highest amount of acreage since 

1944.4 The increase in acreage was a direct 

response to the high prices that prevailed at 

the end of 2010 and the beginning of 2011.

The price index for soybeans posted a large 

increase in 2010 and continued to rise over 

the first 6 months of 2011. Much of the increase in prices was because of a decrease in 

supplies of soybeans from the United States, 

the world›s largest grower and exporter of 

soybeans. In October 2010, the U.S. Department of Agriculture estimated that inventories 

would be 265 million bushels in August 2011, 

but readjusted the estimate in November 

to 185 million bushels because of the vastly 

decreased harvest.5 Strong international 

demand for soybeans for animal feed also 

helped push prices higher.

During the final 6 months of 2011, the price 

of soybeans fell 17.6 percent, and for the year 

it declined 11.8 percent. The annual decrease 

was in stark contrast to the previous 2 years 

when prices rose 23.4 percent and 26.6 percent, respectively. Although the U.S. harvest 

was small, record high soybean stocks in Brazil 

and Argentina boosted global supply and 

caused the price of soybeans to drop.6

In 2010, wheat prices increased 35.1 percent 

over the year, and they continued to rise 19.3 

percent during the first 6 months of 2011, 

before declining 17.5 percent over the final 

6 months of the year. Driving the massive 

increase in the price of wheat during 2010 

was an export ban put in place by Russia as 

a means of protecting Russian consumers 

during a devastating drought. As a result of 

this ban, the United States exported even 

more wheat, sending more than 34 million 

metric tons abroad from June 2010 to May 

2011.7

  The price of wheat began to decline in 

July 2011, and one of the major factors was 

the end of the Russian export ban. The return 

of Russian wheat to the international market 

alleviated the strain of a very tight market.

 CURRENT PRICE TOPICS
3

Of all of the large price increases of agricultural commodities in 2010, none was more 

pronounced than that of cotton. The United 

States is the world’s largest exporter of cotton,8 and the price index for cotton increased 

153.8 percent from March 2010 to March 

2011, with spot prices reaching levels not 

seen since the Reconstruction. (See chart 2.) 

The unprecedented increase in prices was 

brought about by supply shortages caused by 

adverse weather in the United States, China, 

and Pakistan, three of the top four cotton 

producing countries, as well as an export 

ban from India, the other country in the top 

four.9 Global demand turned to the United 

States as a source of cotton, and exports increased to over 14 million bales.10

The price trend began to reverse in April 

2011, and the price index for cotton declined 

29.1 percent. The swift decline in prices was 

brought about by a sharp decline in demand. 

By July, imports of cotton to China, the world’s 

largest consumer, declined 32 percent on a 

year-over-year basis.11

Current Price Trends

Quarterly Price Highlights

Import Prices 

Led by higher prices for both fuel and nonfuel 

prices, import prices increased for the third 

consecutive year in 2011, rising 8.5 percent 

 CURRENT PRICE TOPICS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan

2010

Mar 

2010

May 

2010

Jul 

2010

Sep 

2010

Nov 

2010

Jan 

2011

Mar 

2011

May 

2011

Jul 

2011

Sep 

2011

Nov 

2011

Volume of U.S. cotton exports U.S. cotton export index

SOURCES: Price index from U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and trade volumes from the USDA Monthly Reports

Chart 2. U.S. cotton exports: price index and volumes, January 2010–

November 2011

Index value (2000 = 100)

Trade volume 480-lb 

bales (in thousands)
after advancing 5.3 percent in 2010 and 8.6 

percent in 2009. In early 2011 import prices 

followed the trend of the previous 2 years, rising 9.2 percent over the first 5 months of the 

year, but prices subsequently moderated and 

edged down 0.6 percent from May through 

December. (See table 1.)

Fuel Import Prices

Import fuel prices rose 25.2 percent in 2011, 

after increasing 14.2 percent the previous 

year and 62.2 percent in 2009. Fuel prices 

increased 15.4 percent in the final quarter of 

2010 and continued to rise 29.6 percent over 

the first 4 months of 2011. However, with the 

exception of a 3.7-percent upturn in November, prices for import fuel trended mostly 

downward the remainder of the year, decreasing 3.4 percent from April through December.

The price index for imported petroleum drove 

the overall increase in fuel prices in 2011, rising 

27.4 percent for the year. That increase followed advances of 16.2 percent and 78.6 percent, respectively, in 2010 and 2009. The 2011 

rise in petroleum prices primarily took place 

over the first 4 months of the year, when the 

index rose 31.2 percent. Both supply concerns 

resulting from political unrest in North Africa, 

and strong worldwide demand in early 2011, 

contributed to the higher prices. The political 

unrest began in January, when Egyptian citizens protested against the Egyptian government, leading to the resignation of Egyptian 

President Hosni Mubarak on February 11.12 Although Egypt is a relatively small oil producer, 

there were fears that the turmoil might lead to 

disruptions in the traffic of oil passing through 

the Suez Canal into Europe. Even greater concern was caused by a brief civil war that broke 

out in Libya in February, which reduced Libyan 

oil exports from more than one and a half billion barrels a day before the crisis to 200,000 

barrels a day by April.13 Meanwhile, strong demand from OECD (Organisation for Economic 

Co-operation and Development) countries 

recovering from the recent economic downturn, a jump in demand from Japan following 

the devastating March earthquake, and growing demand from China also contributed to 

the rise in oil prices.14

The upward trend in petroleum prices came 

to an abrupt halt on May 5, 2011, when crude 

4

 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS

Table 1. Summary of December-to-December percent changes

Item 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

All-commodity imports 4.2 2.4 6.7 8.0 2.5 10.6 -10.1 8.6 5.3 8.5

 Excluding fuels 0.0 1.0 3.0 1.1 2.9 3.1 1.2 0.3 3.0 3.4

 Fuels 53.7 13.2 31.5 43.5 0.9 42.1 -47.0 62.2 14.2 25.2

All-commodity exports 1.0 2.2 4.0 2.8 4.5 6.0 -2.9 3.4 6.5 3.6

 Excluding agricultural 0.4 1.3 5.0 2.6 3.7 4.5 -2.2 2.9 5.1 4.0

 Agricultural 8.0 13.4 -5.9 4.9 13.5 23.3 -10.9 9.2 20.5 0.8
oil prices fell approximately 9 percent in 1 

day. From May through December, the price 

index for imported petroleum fell 2.2 percent. 

Increased output from Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, 

Kuwait, and Iraq largely offset the lost production from Libya.15 Petroleum demand fell 

as a result of the jump in oil prices as well as 

worsening economic conditions. The biggest 

drop in demand came from the European 

Union, where the continuing European debt 

crisis brought into question the viability of the 

continuation of a single European currency.16

The weakening euro helped push the value of 

the U.S. dollar up 5.2 percent between April 

and December, which also led to lower petroleum prices.17

For the year, natural gas prices fell 9.4 percent, 

somewhat offsetting the higher petroleum 

prices. The decline followed a 14.5-percent 

decrease in 2010 and marked the sixth consecutive year natural gas prices fell after 

peaking in 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane 

Katrina. Demand for natural gas remains low 

and working natural gas storage in the United 

States hit the highest monthly average on 

record at the end of October.18

Nonfuel Import Prices

Import prices excluding fuel also rose overall 

in 2011, advancing 3.4 percent for the year 

after recording a 3.0-percent increase in 2010. 

The 2011 rise was the largest calendar-year 

advance since the index was first published in 

December 2001. Chart 3 shows an increase in 

the price index for nonfuel industrial supplies 

and materials and a rise in consumer goods 

prices were the largest contributors to the 

5

 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS

1.08

0.46

0.27

1.17

0.47

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50

Consumer goods, excluding automotives

Automotive Vehicles

Capital goods

Industrial supplies and materials, excluding fuel

Foods, feeds, and beverages

Percent change contribution

Chart 3. Major contributors to the 3.4-percent increase in 2011 in import prices, 

excluding fuel

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

NOTE: Due to rounding, figures do not add to total. 
overall advance in nonfuel prices, although 

prices for each of the other major import categories—foods, feeds, and beverages; automotive vehicles; and capital goods—all rose in 

2011 as well.

Nonfuel industrial supplies and materials prices advanced 6.8 percent in 2011 after rising 

12.2 percent the previous year. The 2011 increase was driven by an 8.8-percent jump over 

the first 5 months of the year before prices for 

nonfuel imports fell 1.8 percent between May 

and December. As was the case in 2010, higher prices for chemicals and unfinished metals 

were the largest contributors to the overall 

increase in nonfuel prices. Chemical prices 

advanced 9.2 percent over the first 5 months 

of the year and rose 11.7 percent overall in 

2011. Unfinished metals prices advanced 4.8 

percent in 2011, although the 14.5-percent 

rise between December 2010 and May was 

partially offset by an 8.4-percent drop in the 

index over the final 7 months of the year. 

Chemical prices rose because of higher prices 

for petroleum feedstocks while unfinished 

metals prices increased in large part because 

of a surge in gold prices. The price index for 

nonmonetary gold increased 26.7 percent in 

2011 as the spot price of gold hit an intraday 

record of $1,923 per ounce in August.19

Prices for each of the major finished goods 

areas also advanced in 2011, with the price 

indexes for consumer goods and automotive 

vehicles recording the largest calendar-year 

increases since the early 1990s. Consumer 

goods prices rose 3.2 percent in 2011, the 

largest calendar-year increase since a 3.5-percent advance in 1990. Highlights included the 

increase in the index for cotton apparel prices, 

which rose 10.4 percent over the past year because of record cotton prices, which peaked 

in March, and the price index for coins, gems, 

jewelry, and collectables, which advanced 

13.3 percent as a result of higher gold prices. 

Higher demand for passenger cars helped 

lead automotive vehicle prices up 3.7 percent 

in 2011, the largest calendar-year advance 

for that index since a 3.9-percent increase in 

1993.20 Capital goods prices also advanced in 

2011, rising 0.9 percent.

The price index for foods, feeds, and beverages increased 6.3 percent in 2011, after a 

13.2-percent advance in 2010. As was the case 

in 2010, higher coffee prices drove the overall rise in foods, feeds, and beverages prices, 

increasing 41.4 percent, following a 32.7-percent advance the previous year. Unlike 2010, 

though, when prices trended up throughout 

the year, the 2011 increase in coffee prices 

resulted from a 45.9-percent jump over the 

first 4 months of the year. From April through 

December, coffee prices fell 3.1 percent. Poor 

weather in Brazil, Columbia, and Vietnam, the 

world›s three largest coffee producers, led 

to reduced output in 2010, which influenced 

prices into 2011.21 However, improving conditions in the current growing season have 

halted the increasing price trend for coffee.22

6

 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS
 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS

Import Prices from China

Import prices from China rose 3.6 percent in 

2011, the largest calendar-year advance since 

the index was first published in December 

2003. The 2011 advance followed a 0.8-percent increase in 2010 and a 1.8-percent decline in 2009. On June 19, 2010, the Central 

Bank of China made an announcement that 

China would allow the yuan to float against 

the U.S. dollar.23 Although prices for imports 

from China were mostly unchanged in the 3 

months immediately following the announcement, the index rose 0.9 percent over the final 

quarter of 2010 before steadily trending up 

throughout 2011.

Export Prices

Export prices advanced 3.6 percent in 2011, 

after rising 6.5 percent the previous year. 

7

Similar to the increase for import prices, the 

increase in export prices in 2011 took place 

over first 4 months of the year, when export 

prices rose 4.9 percent. In contrast, the index 

declined 1.3 percent between April and December. Both agricultural and nonagricultural 

prices increased in 2011, rising 0.8 percent 

and 4.0 percent, respectively.

Nonagricultural Export Prices

The price index for nonagricultural exports 

advanced 4.0 percent over the past 12 

months, following a 5.1-percent increase in 

2010. Nonagricultural prices trended up over 

the first 3 quarters of 2011 before decreasing 

1.7 percent during the final quarter of the 

year, making it the largest quarterly drop for 

the index since a 6.0-percent decrease during 

the fourth quarter of 2008. Chart 4 shows 

0.55

0.20

0.29

2.81

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00

Consumer goods, excluding automotives

Automotive vehicles

Capital goods

Nonagricultural industrial supplies and Materials

Percent change contribution

Chart 4. Major contributors to the 4.0-percent increase in 2011 in export 

prices excluding agriculture

SOURCE: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

NOTE: Due to rounding, figures do not add to total. 
8

 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS

a 7.9-percent increase in the price index 

for nonagricultural industrial supplies and 

materials, the largest contributor to the overall 

advance in nonagricultural export prices, 

although prices for each of the major finished 

goods categories rose as well in 2011.

The 2011 increase in nonagricultural industrial 

supplies and materials prices followed a 13.5-percent rise in 2010, and was driven by a 12.1-percent advance between December 2010 and May. 

Higher prices for fuel, metals, and chemicals during the first half of 2011 led the increase in the 

price index for nonagricultural industrial supplies 

and materials. During the fourth quarter, however, the index fell 4.3 percent.

The price indexes for export consumer goods, 

automotive vehicles, and capital goods all 

rose in 2011, increasing 3.6 percent, 2.6 

percent, and 0.7 percent, respectively. The 

advance in consumer goods prices was the 

largest calendar-year advance for the index 

since a 3.8-percent rise in 1990, while the 2011 

increase in automotive vehicle prices was the 

largest calendar-year gain since a 2.8-percent 

advance in 1989.

For more information, contact Edwin

Bennion by phone at (202) 691-7142 or by email 

at bennion.edwin@bls.gov, or David Mead at 

(202) 691-7154 or mead.dave@bls.gov.

Greater detail on the construction of the import 

and export price indexes can be found in the 

Technical Note from the monthly News Release 

(http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ximpim.

tn.htm).

Notes

1 Luzi Ann Javier, “Corn Advances as Adverse Weather Threatens Crops; Soybeans Gain,” Bloomberg Businessweek, February 15, 

2011, http://www.businessweek.com/news/2011-02-15/corn-advances-as-adverse-weather-threatens-crops-soybeans-gain.html.

2 Tony C. Dreibus and Luzi Ann Javier, “Corn Rises to Highest Prices Since 2008 as Wet Weather Threatens Planting,” Bloomberg, 

April 7, 2011,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-07/soybeans-gain-on-speculation-supply-to-tighten-as-farmersswitch-to-corn.html.

3 Thomas Capehart and Edward Allen, “Feed Outlook,” (U.S. Department of Agriculture, January 17, 2012),http://usda01.library.

cornell.edu/usda/current/FDS/FDS-01-17-2012.pdf.

4 “U.S. Acreage, Production, Yield, and Farm Price,” Feed Grains Database Yearbook Tables, (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 

Economic Research Service, January 2012), http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/FeedGrains/FeedYearbook.aspx.

5 Jeff Wilson, “Soybeans Jump to 26-Month High as U.S. Supplies Drop, Global Demand Climbs,” Bloomberg, November 9, 

2010, http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-11-09/soybeans-soar-to-two-year-high-on-improved-demand-for-reduced-u-ssupply.html.

6 Mark Ash, “Oil Crops Outlook,” (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service, October 13, 2011), http://

usda01.library.cornell.edu/usda/ers/OCS/2010s/2011/OCS-10-13-2011.pdf.

7

 “U.S. wheat exports by selected destinations,” Wheat Data: Yearbook Tables, (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Economic 

Research Service, December 2011), http://www.ers.usda.gov/data/wheat/YBtable25.asp.

8 National Cotton Council of America, “Export Rankings Marketing Year 2011,” http://www.cotton.org/econ/cropinfo/

cropdata/rankings.cfm.
9

 CURRENT PRICE TRENDS

Notes—Continued

9 Esteban Balseca and Edwin Bennion, “The Impact of Soaring Cotton Prices on Consumer Apparel Prices,” in Focus on Prices 

and Spending, (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, August 2011), http://www.bls.gov/opub/focus/volume2_number5/ipp_2_5.pdf.

10 “Prices Stabilize, China but Not Others Return to U.S. Market,” in Cotton: World Markets and Trade, (U.S. Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service, December 2011), http://www.fas.usda.gov/cotton/circular/2011/Dec/cotton_full12-11.pdf.

11 Elizabeth Holmes, “Tumble in Cotton Prices, New Wrinkle for Apparel Makers,” The Wall Street Journal, July 22, 2011,http://

online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903554904576458270983393048.html.

12 “Oil Market Report,” (International Energy Agency, February 10, 2011), omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/10feb11full.pdf.

13 “Oil Market Report,” (International Energy Agency, May 12, 2011), omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12may11full.pdf.

14 “Oil Market Report,” (International Energy Agency, April 12, 2011), omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/12apr11full.pdf.

15 “Oil Market Report,” (International Energy Agency, June 16, 2011), omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/16jun11full.pdf.

16 “Oil Market Report,” (International Energy Agency, December 13, 2011), omrpublic.iea.org/omrarchive/13dec11full.pdf.

17 “Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index: Major Currencies,” (St. Louis Federal Reserve, January 2012), http://research.stlouisfed.

org/fred2/series/DTWEXM?cid=105. Note that oil is priced in U.S. dollars, so when the value of the U.S. dollar increases, the 

price of oil becomes cheaper relative to that currency, all else being held equal.

18 “Storage Inventories,” in Natural Gas Year-End-Review, (U.S. Energy Information Administration, December 2011), http://

www.eia.gov/naturalgas/review/storage.cfm. Note that the data dates back to 1993.

19 Alix Steel, “Gold Prices Poised for 11th Year of Gains in 2012,” The Street, December 22, 2012, http://www.thestreet.com/

print/story/11351700.html.

20 Bernie Woodall and Ben Klayman, “Auto Sales Rebound, Allaying Recession Fear,” Reuters, October 3, 2011, http://www.

reuters.com/article/2011/10/03/us-autos-sales-idUSTRE78S6BG20111003.

21 Daniel Harrington, “Coffee Price in 2011,” Espresso & Coffee Guide, February 8, 2011, http://www.espressocoffeeguide.

com/2011/02/coffee-price-in-2011/.

22 “Coffee Prices Dip From Record Highs as Supply Increases,” Business Daily, January 18, 2012.

23 Tony Zhu, “China’s RMB Hits Record High of 6.3009 per U.S. Dollar”, Business China, December 30, 2011.