Monthly Labor Review October 2003 13

Projections Evaluation

Evaluating the BLS 1988–2000

employment projections

BLS employment projections for the period

from 1988 to 2000 were borne out in most

broad occupations; the chief source

of error was the projection of changes

in staffing patterns, attributable primarily

to the conservative nature of the projections

Andrew Alpert

and

Jill Auyer

Andrew Alpert and Jill

Auyer are economists in

the Office of Occupational

Statistics and Employment

Projections, Bureau of

Labor Statistics. E-mail:

alpert.andrew@bls.gov or

auyer.jill@bls.gov

The BLS occupational employment

projections developed for the 1988–2000

period were reasonably accurate, correctly

capturing most general occupational trends. As

with previous evaluations, however, the inaccuracies that surfaced reflected a conservative

tilt to the projections. The primary source of error

was the projection of changes in the utilization of

occupations by industry, or staffing patterns,

rather than the projections of industry employment themselves.

Evaluation measures

In the study presented in this article, several

different measures were used to assess the accuracy of the projections for both major occupational groups and detailed occupations.

Among the various measures, the most traditional

involved comparing actual with projected employment in terms of percent change, numerical

growth, and share of employment growth between

1988 and 2000. An absolute percent error—the

absolute value of the numerical error divided by

actual employment in the target year of the

projection—was calculated for all major groups

and detailed occupations. The actual and projected directions of change also were compared,

to see whether employment in occupations

that were projected to grow or decline actually

did so.1

 Finally, because the 1988–2000

occupational employment projections were

the basis for job outlook information

presented in the 1990–91 edition of the

Occupational Outlook Handbook, the accuracy of the projections was assessed in

terms of the assumptions made about the

factors affecting employment growth or

decline.

Major occupational groups

Total employment grew by 21.7 percent

between 1988 and 2000, slightly faster than

the 15.3 percent that had been projected. The

difference is largely the result of an underprojection of total employment by about 7.6

million. The direction of the employment

change was anticipated correctly for all but

one of the nine major groups. Employment in

eight of the nine groups was underestimated.

(See table 1.)

All but three of the major groups had

absolute percent errors of less than 10 percent.

The category of agriculture, forestry, fishing,
14 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Table 1. Employment, by major occupational group, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

 Occupation

 Total, all occupations ................. 118,104 136,211 100.0 143,786 100.0 15.3 21.7 –7,575 5.3 100.0 100.0

Executive, administrative,

and managerial ............................ 12,297 15,006 11.0 14,995 10.4 22.0 21.9 11 .1 15.0 10.5

Professional specialty .................. 14,568 18,070 13.3 20,360 14.2 24.0 39.8 –2,290 11.2 19.3 22.5

Technicians and related support ... 3,919 5,146 3.8 5,202 3.6 31.3 32.8 –56 1.1 6.8 5.0

Marketing and sales ...................... 12,109 14,535 10.7 15,485 10.8 20.0 27.9 –950 6.1 13.4 13.1

Administrative support,

including clerical .......................... 22,080 24,698 18.1 25,564 17.8 11.9 15.8 –865 3.4 14.5 13.6

Service .......................................... 18,479 22,651 16.6 23,160 16.1 22.6 25.3 –509 2.2 23.0 18.2

Agriculture, foresty, fishing,

and related ................................... 3,503 3,334 2.4 3,998 2.8 –4.8 14.1 –664 16.6 –.9 1.9

Precision production, craft,

and repair ..................................... 14,427 15,866 11.6 16,022 11.1 10.0 11.1 –156 1.0 7.9 6.2

Operators, fabricators,

and laborers ................................. 16,721 16,904 12.4 19,000 13.2 1.1 13.6 –2,097 11.0 1.0 8.9

 1 The absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection.

Share of total job

growth, 1988–2000

 (percent)

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error,

20001

Percent change,

1988–2000

Actual Projected Actual

 Projected

Total employment

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Share

(percent) Level Share(percent) 1988 Level

and related occupations had the highest error of any major

group, 16.6 percent. Professional specialty occupations and

operators, fabricators, and laborers also had relatively high

errors, 11.2 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively. The group

with the lowest absolute error, 0.1 percent, was executive,

administrative, and managerial occupations.

Five of the nine major groups had absolute errors below 5

percent. Of the five, the category of executive, administrative,

and managerial occupations not only was the most accurately

projected major group, but also was the lone group for which

employment was overprojected. Technicians and related

support occupations and precision production, craft, and

repair occupations also had very low errors, 1.1 percent and

1.0 percent, respectively. The absolute percent error was 2.2

percent for service occupations and 3.4 percent for administrative support occupations.

In addition to making reasonably accurate employment

projections at the aggregate major group level, the Bureau

projected the share of total job growth of each group fairly

accurately. For example, professional specialty occupations

had the largest numerical error, off by more than 2 million

workers, but still, the category’s share of total job growth

was underprojected by only 3.2 percent. The largest difference

in share of job growth was 7.9 percent, for operators, fabricators, and laborers; the group’s growth was projected to

be 1 percent, but actually was 8.9 percent. The gap was due

mainly to an overestimation of the effects of automation on

the demand for workers.

Although agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations had the highest employment projection error, at 16.6

percent, the group’s share of total job growth was underprojected by only 2.8 percent. The group was projected to

have a negative share of total job growth, but the share was

actually positive. Finally, the share of total job growth accounted for by executive, administrative, and management

occupations, the most accurately projected group, was actually overprojected by 4.5 percent.

Significant errors in the projections for detailed occupations with sizable employment can have a substantial impact

on the overall projections for their respective groups. For

example, employment in professional specialty occupations

was projected to increase 24 percent over the 1988–2000

period; however, employment actually grew by 39.8 percent.

Thus, employment in the category was underprojected by more

than 2 million workers. Underprojections for several large

professional specialty occupations—college and university

faculty, social workers, special-education teachers, and teachers and instructors of vocational education and training—

contributed significantly. In addition, an underprojection of

computer-related employment by about 1 million workers had

a substantial impact.2

Operators, fabricators, and laborers also were underprojected by more than 2 million workers. Together, the two

categories (that is, operators, fabricators, and laborers and

professional specialty occupations) accounted for almost

three-fifths of the total numerical projection error for all
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 15

Table 2. Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

 Total, all

 occupations ...... 118,104 136,211 100.00 143,786 100.00 15.3 21.7 –7,575 5.3 0.0 5.3 100.00 100.00

File clerks ..................... 263 290 .21 290 .20 10.2 10.2 0 .0 12.1 10.6 .15 .10

Property, real-estate,

and community

association managers . 225 267 .20 267 .19 19.0 18.9 0 .1 1.4 .3 .24 .17

Directory assistance

operators ..................... 33 26 .02 26 .02 –20.6 –20.4 0 .2 23.6 19.2 –.04 –.03

Credit checkers ............ 35 44 .03 44 .03 26.4 25.9 0 .4 1.6 5.4 .05 .04

Farmworkers .................. 938 785 .58 781 .54 –16.3 –16.7 3 .4 10.4 12.6 –.85 –.61

Advertising, marketing,

promotions, public

relations, and sales

managers .................... 406 511 .37 508 .35 25.7 25.2 2 .5 18.1 7.0 .58 .40

......................................

Mail clerks, except mail

machine operators

and postal service ..... 136 137 .10 137 .09 1.2 .6 1 .6 12.6 11.1 .01 .00

Guards .......................... 795 1,050 .77 1,044 .73 32.2 31.4 6 .6 53.7 14.2 1.41 .97

Surgical technologists . 35 55 .04 55 .04 56.4 55.2 0 .8 7.0 7.2 .11 .08

Stock clerks and order

fillers ........................... 2,152 2,406 1.77 2,426 1.69 11.8 12.7 –20 .8 .8 1.8 1.40 1.07

General managers

and top executives ..... 3,030 3,509 2.58 3,539 2.46 15.8 16.8 –31 .9 7.0 6.3 2.64 1.98

Statistical clerks ........... 77 76 .06 75 .05 –1.7 –2.6 1 .9 5.4 3.9 –.01 –.01

Engineering, natural

science, and computer

and information

systems managers ..... 258 341 .25 344 .24 32.0 33.3 -3 1.0 2.1 5.3 .46 .33

......................................

Maintenance repairers,

general utility .............. 1,080 1,282 .94 1,269 .88 18.7 17.5 12 1.0 5.4 6.3 1.11 .74

Pipelayers and

pipelaying fitters ......... 52 59 .04 59 .04 13.3 12.1 1 1.0 11.3 6.2 .04 .02

Helpers, construction

trades .......................... 555 633 .46 640 .44 14.1 15.3 –7 1.0 9.6 10.5 .43 .33

Surveyors, cartographers, and

photogrammetrists ...... 40 45 .03 45 .03 10.9 12.2 –1 1.1 .4 4.4 .02 .02

Air traffic controllers ..... 27 31 .02 31 .02 15.5 16.9 0 1.2 5.1 6.9 .02 .02

Drywall installers

 and finishers ............... 152 178 .13 176 .12 16.9 15.4 2 1.4 1.2 3.1 .14 .09

Bank tellers ................... 522 546 .40 555 .39 4.6 6.2 –9 1.6 18.3 15.2 .13 .13

......................................

Title examiners,

abstractors,

and searchers ............. 27 31 .02 32 .02 17.3 19.2 –1 1.6 13.4 13.7 .3 .02

Production, planning,

and expediting clerks . 229 250 .18 254 .18 9.4 11.2 –4 1.7 5.1 2.1 .12 .10

Librarians ...................... 143 157 .12 160 .11 10.0 12.0 –3 1.8 12.8 13.0 .8 .07

Securities, commodities,

and financial services

sales agents ............... 200 309 .23 315 .22 54.8 57.6 –6 1.8 1.5 3.1 .60 .45

Cooks, short order

and fast food .............. 630 719 .53 705 .49 14.1 12.0 14 1.9 6.3 3.8 .49 .29

Architects, except

landscape and naval ... 86 107 .08 105 .07 24.7 22.3 2 2.0 4.1 1.8 .12 .07

Machine feeders and

offbearers .................... 249 218 .16 213 .15 –12.5 –14.2 4 2.0 2.8 1.0 –.17 –.14

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Absolute

percent error,

simulated

projections,

2000

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Percent change,

1988–2000

Actual Projected

Actual Projected

Total employment

Share

(percent)

Level Level Share

(percent)

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

1988

Occupation
16 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Machine-forming

operators and tenders,

metal and plastic .......... 184 166 .12 169 .12 –10.0 –8.1 –3 2.0 10.3 15.5 –.10 –.06

Purchasing agents,

except wholesale,

retail, and farm

products ........................ 206 236 .17 231 .16 14.6 12.2 5 2.2 1.8 .7 .17 .10

Industrial machinery

mechanics ..................... 463 538 .40 526 .37 16.2 13.7 12 2.2 1.5 5.1 .41 .25

Firefighters ...................... 233 257 .19 251 .17 10.3 7.9 6 2.2 18.1 13.3 .13 .07

Plastic molding machine

setters, setup

operators, operators,

and tenders ................... 144 176 .13 172 .12 22.2 19.2 4 2.4 2.7 2.0 .18 .11

Musicians, singers, and

related workers ............. 229 251 .18 245 .17 9.5 6.9 6 2.5 26.1 15.3 .12 .06

Grinding, lapping, and

buffing machine

toolsetters and setup

operators, metal

and plastic .................... 72 70 .05 72 .05 –2.1 .4 –2 2.5 1.4 4.6 –.1 .0

Operations research

analysts ........................ 55 85 .06 83 .06 55.4 51.5 2 2.6 5.8 9.7 .17 .11

Sewing machine

operators,

nongarment ................... 143 135 .10 131 .09 –5.6 –8.1 4 2.7 3.9 4.7 –.4 –.04

Paralegals and legal

assistants ..................... 83 145 .11 141 .10 75.3 70.6 4 2.8 10.1 13.3 .34 0.23

Designers, except ..........

interior designers .......... 236 301 .22 311 .22 27.4 31.5 –10 3.1 5.4 .6 .36 0.29

Insurance adjusters,

examiners, and

 investigators ................ 145 175 .13 180 .13 20.0 23.9 –6 3.2 4.4 1.8 .16 0.14

Bakers, bread and

pastry ............................ 124 167 .12 172 .12 34.8 39.3 –5 3.2 7.3 4.4 .24 0.19

Registered nurses .......... 1,577 2,190 1.61 2,120 1.47 38.8 34.4 70 3.3 3.4 1.4 3.38 2.11

Real-estate appraisers ... 41 49 .04 47 .03 19.9 16.0 2 3.3 8.9 5.1 .04 .03

Insulation workers .......... 64 77 .06 74 .05 19.2 15.3 2 3.3 5.6 5.2 .07 .04

Machinists ....................... 397 433 .32 418 .29 9.1 5.5 14 3.4 9.4 4.1 .20 .08

Aircraft mechanics and

service technicians ....... 124 144 .11 140 .10 16.4 12.5 5 3.5 31.6 12.4 .11 .06

Painters and paperhangers ......................... 431 501 .37 484 .34 16.3 12.2 18 3.6 4.0 .9 .39 .20

Structural and reinforcing

 metal workers .............. 78 92 .07 88 .06 18.2 14.0 3 3.7 17.3 11.4 .08 .04

Food preparation

workers ......................... 1,027 1,260 .93 1,310 .91 22.8 27.5 –49 3.8 1.3 4.6 1.29 1.10

Plumbers, pipefitters,

and steamfitters ............ 396 469 .34 451 .31 18.4 14.0 17 3.9 14.0 9.6 .40 .22

Farm managers ............... 131 160 .12 154 .11 22.1 17.6 6 3.9 21.4 11.2 .16 .09

Court clerks .................... 42 51 .04 53 .04 21.4 26.4 –2 3.9 10.3 12.8 .05 .04

Medical assistants .......... 149 253 .19 263 .18 70.1 77.1 –10 4.0 1.0 4.0 .58 .45

Announcers ..................... 49 59 .04 56 .04 19.2 14.4 2 4.2 .7 5.0 .05 .03

Painters, transportation

equipment...................... 46 45 .03 43 .03 –3.5 –7.5 2 4.3 6.5 3.8 –.01 –.01

Payroll and timekeeping

clerks ............................ 176 172 .13 180 .12 –2.4 2.1 –8 4.4 4.0 7.2 –.02 .01

Actual Projected

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent error,

simulated

projections,

2000

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Projected

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Occupation

Total employment

1988

Level Share

(percent)

Level

Actual Share

(percent)

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Percent change,

1988–2000

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 17

Janitors and cleaners,

 including maids and

housekeeping

cleaners ........................ 2,895 3,450 2.53 3,300 2.30 19.2 14.0 150 4.5 8.7 4.2 3.07 1.58

Recreational therapists .. 26 35 .03 37 .03 36.9 43.5 –2 4.6 6.6 2.5 .05 .04

Artists and commercial

artists ............................ 216 274 .20 287 .20 27.1 33.2 –13 4.6 .4 3.5 .32 .28

Coating, painting,

and spraying machine

operators, tenders,

setters, and setup

operators ....................... 113 123 .09 129 .09 9.0 14.5 –6 4.8 2.3 2.7 .06 .06

College and university

faculty ........................... 846 869 .64 913 .64 2.8 8.0 –45 4.9 11.6 14.8 .13 .26

Paving, surfacing,

and tamping equipment

operators ....................... 70 82 .06 78 .05 16.6 11.2 4 4.9 19.6 12.2 .06 .03

Sheet metal workers

and duct installers ........ 246 257 .19 245 .17 4.3 –.6 12 5.0 17.3 10.9 .06 –.01

Computer programmers ... 519 769 .56 731 .51 48.1 40.9 37 5.1 27.5 22.8 1.38 .83

Baggage porters

and bellhops .................. 32 40 .03 43 .03 25.9 33.0 –2 5.3 4.6 4.4 .05 .04

Taxi drivers

and chauffeurs ............. 109 137 .10 130 .09 26.0 19.4 7 5.4 11.4 13.2 .16 .08

Freight, stock, and

material movers,

hand .............................. 884 905 .66 858 .60 2.4 –2.9 47 5.5 14.7 11.1 .12 –.10

Systems analysts ........... 403 617 .45 653 .45 53.3 62.2 –36 5.5 3.8 11.3 1.18 .97

Woodworking machine

 operators and tenders,

 setters and setup

 operators ...................... 69 75 .06 80 .06 8.2 14.6 –4 5.6 2.0 3.8 .03 .04

Punching machine

setters and setup

operators, metal

and plastic .................... 51 50 .04 47 .03 –2.1 –7.3 3 5.6 12.5 7.5 –.01 –.01

........................................

Pest control workers ....... 48 56 .04 53 .04 16.5 10.2 3 5.7 1.7 2.6 .04 .02

Chemists ......................... 80 93 .07 99 .07 16.7 23.8 –6 5.7 13.4 4.6 .07 .07

Postal mail carriers ......... 285 310 .23 329 .23 8.8 15.5 –19 5.8 7.7 2.1 .14 .17

Human resources

assistants, except

payroll and timekeeping ......................... 129 141 .10 150 .10 9.4 16.3 –9 5.9 4.6 8.1 .07 .08

Billing, cost, and

rate clerks ..................... 323 333 .24 355 .25 3.4 9.9 –21 6.0 2.9 5.7 .06 .12

Dispatchers, except

police, fire, and

ambulance ..................... 137 160 .12 170 .12 16.5 23.9 –10 6.0 .8 9.7 .13 .13

Textile bleaching and

dyeing machine

operators and tenders .. 26 23 .02 22 .01 –13.4 –18.3 1 6.0 13.4 23.0 –.02 –.02

Crossing guards ............. 57 61 .04 57 .04 6.9 .8 3 6.0 23.0 14.3 .02 .00

Veterinarians ................... 46 57 .04 61 .04 25.5 33.6 –4 6.0 11.4 15.2 .06 .06

Office machine

and cash register

servicers ....................... 56 57 .04 61 .04 1.3 7.8 –4 6.1 41.2 19.3 .00 .02

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Actual Projected

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Actual ProShare jected

(percent)

Share of

total job

growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute

percent error,

simulated

projections,

2000 Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Total employment

Occupation

1988

Level Level

Percent change,

1988–2000

Share

(percent)
18 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Paper goods machine

setters and setup

operators ....................... 54 56 .04 60 .04 4.7 11.5 –4 6.1 9.4 4.0 .01 .02

Cooks, institution or

cafeteria ........................ 403 467 .34 440 .31 16.0 9.3 27 6.1 20.0 10.4 .36 .15

Roofers ........................... 123 147 .11 156 .11 19.2 27.0 –10 6.2 6.4 .9 .13 .13

Civil engineers ................ 186 219 .16 206 .14 17.4 10.5 13 6.2 10.8 5.3 .18 .08

Child care workers .......... 670 856 .63 915 .64 27.8 36.6 –59 6.5 4.3 5.0 1.03 .95

Loan and credit clerks .... 151 192 .14 180 .13 27.2 19.5 12 6.5 6.5 8.1 .23 .11

Office clerks, general ..... 2,519 2,974 2.18 3,192 2.22 18.1 26.7 –218 6.8 4.8 9.0 2.51 2.62

Bookkeeping, accounting,

and auditing clerks ....... 2,252 2,272 1.67 2,125 1.48 .9 -5.6 146 6.9 12.2 4.0 .11 –.49

Communication,

transportation, and

utilities operations

managers ...................... 167 194 .14 209 .15 16.3 25.3 –15 7.2 5.9 12.1 .15 .16

Loan counselors

and officers ................... 172 209 .15 225 .16 21.5 31.0 –16 7.2 13.7 3.4 .20 .21

Dietitians and

nutritionists ................... 40 51 .04 55 .04 27.8 37.8 –4 7.3 8.3 2.6 .06 .06

Millwrights ....................... 77 90 .07 84 .06 17.3 9.2 6 7.5 12.4 5.6 .07 .03

Industrial truck

and tractor operators .... 421 400 .29 433 .30 –5.1 2.8 –33 7.6 3.0 11.8 –.12 .05

Hard-tile setters .............. 26 32 .02 30 .02 22.4 13.7 2 7.7 6.4 1.6 .03 .01

Teachers, secondary

school ........................... 1,164 1,388 1.02 1,506 1.05 19.2 29.4 –118 7.8 8.1 14.8 1.24 1.33

Accountants

and auditors .................. 963 1,174 .86 1,089 .76 22.0 13.1 86 7.9 8.1 1.2 1.17 0.49

Electromechanical

equipment assemblers,

precision ....................... 59 53 .04 49 .03 –9.9 –16.6 4 8.0 6.3 5.8 –.03 –.04

Retail salespersons ........ 3,834 4,564 3.35 4,223 2.94 19.0 10.2 340 8.1 8.5 1.0 4.03 1.52

Pharmacists .................... 162 206 .15 191 .13 26.9 17.4 16 8.2 5.8 .5 .24 .11

Aircraft pilots and

flight engineers ............. 83 108 .08 100 .07 30.9 20.9 8 8.3 59.9 30.9 .14 .07

Physical therapists ......... 68 107 .08 117 .08 57.0 71.4 –10 8.4 3.7 3.3 .21 .19

Grinders and polishers,

hand .............................. 84 74 .05 80 .06 –12.6 –4.5 –7 8.5 4.4 3.2 –.06 –.01

Coin, vending, and

amusement machine

servicers and repairers 27 27 .02 30 .02 .5 10.0 –3 8.6 21.2 23.6 .00 .01

Inspectors, testers,

and graders, precision .. 676 634 .47 693 .48 –6.2 2.6 –60 8.6 11.7 2.3 –.23 .07

Cement masons,

concrete finishers,

and terrazzo workers .... 114 134 .10 146 .10 16.9 27.9 –13 8.6 14.7 17.5 .11 .12

Bus drivers, school ........ 349 418 .31 458 .32 19.9 31.3 –40 8.7 7.9 15.5 .38 .43

Cleaners and servants,

private household ......... 477 464 .34 509 .35 –2.6 6.7 –45 8.8 25.2 22.0 –.07 .12

Psychologists ................. 104 132 .10 145 .10 27.0 39.5 –13 9.0 8.1 .3 .16 .16

Construction and

building inspectors ........ 56 64 .05 70 .05 14.2 25.7 –6 9.2 6.3 10.0 .04 .06

Combination machine

tool setters, setup

operators, operators,

and tenders, metal

and plastic .................... 89 97 .07 107 .07 9.1 20.3 –10 9.3 1.8 5.7 .04 .07

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Share of

total job

growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Projected Actual

Absolute

percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Occupation

1988

Level Share

(percent)

Total employment

Level Share

(percent)

Percent change,

1988–2000

Projected Actual

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Projected 2000 Actual 2000
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 19

Data entry keyers ........... 452 426 .31 471 .33 –5.6 4.2 –44 9.4 17.1 18.9 –.14 .07

Respiratory therapists .... 56 79 .06 87 .06 41.3 56.3 –8 9.6 15.8 7.8 .13 .12

Insurance policy

processing clerks ......... 171 186 .14 170 .12 8.8 –.9 17 9.8 5.1 4.5 .08 –.01

Truckdrivers, light

and heavy ..................... 2,399 2,768 2.03 3,072 2.14 15.4 28.0 –303 9.9 3.4 6.8 2.04 2.62

Welfare eligibility

workers and

interviewers ................... 91 102 .07 113 .08 12.0 24.3 –11 9.9 3.2 4.6 .06 .09

Opticians, dispensing ..... 49 65 .05 72 .05 31.5 45.9 –7 9.9 3.4 7.2 .09 .09

Police patrol officers ....... 367 421 .31 467 .32 14.7 27.3 –46 9.9 4.4 12.8 .30 .39

Supervisors, farming,

forestry, and agricuturalrelated occupations ...... 76 80 .06 89 .06 5.6 17.6 –9 10.2 10.0 12.9 .02 .05

Electricians ..................... 542 638 .47 712 .50 17.8 31.5 –74 10.4 6.0 16.6 .53 .66

Cement and gluing

machine operators

and tenders ................... 40 36 .03 32 .02 –11.1 –19.5 3 10.5 7.8 .1 –.02 –.03

 Waiters and

waitresses ..................... 1,786 2,337 1.72 2,115 1.47 30.9 18.4 223 10.5 16.0 4.6 3.04 1.28

Electrolytic plating

machine setters, setup

operators, operators,

and tenders, metal

and plastic .................... 44 41 .03 46 .03 –7.9 3.1 –5 10.7 6.5 6.5 –.02 .01

Cooks, restaurant ........... 572 728 .53 816 .57 27.2 42.5 –88 10.8 7.6 3.5 .86 .95

Financial managers ......... 673 802 .59 724 .50 19.3 7.7 78 10.8 12.9 3.3 .72 .20

Clinical laboratory

technologists and

technicians .................... 242 288 .21 324 .23 19.2 33.9 –36 11.0 15.7 5.3 .26 .32

Painting, coating, and

decorating workers,

hand .............................. 45 43 .03 39 .03 –4.4 –13.9 4 11.0 9.0 5.3 –.01 –.02

Physician assistants ...... 48 62 .05 69 .05 28.1 44.0 –8 11.1 8.5 3.0 .07 .08

Legal secretaries ............ 263 329 .24 296 .21 25.5 12.7 34 11.3 4.6 15.3 .37 .13

Food counter, fountain,

and related workers ...... 1,626 1,866 1.37 2,108 1.47 14.7 29.6 –242 11.5 7.7 4.0 1.32 1.88

Duplicating, mail, and

other office machine

operators ....................... 164 181 .13 205 .14 10.5 24.8 –24 11.5 .4 6.1 .09 .16

Farm equipment

mechanics ..................... 54 55 .04 49 .03 1.4 –9.1 6 11.5 29.1 67.9 .00 –.02

Meat, poultry, and fish

cutters and trimmers,

hand .............................. 110 129 .09 145 .10 16.6 31.9 –17 11.6 5.3 15.7 .10 .14

Heating, air-conditioning,

and refrigeration

mechanics and

installers ....................... 225 263 .19 298 .21 16.8 32.4 –35 11.8 6.3 6.9 .21 .28

Nursing aides, orderlies,

and attendants ............. 1,184 1,562 1.15 1,393 .97 31.9 17.7 168 12.1 11.5 .5 2.09 .82

Carpenters ...................... 1,081 1,257 .92 1,120 .78 16.2 3.6 136 12.2 14.3 3.9 .97 .15

Weighers, measurers,

checkers, and samplers,

recordkeeping ............... 40 45 .03 52 .04 12.2 28.0 –6 12.3 8.9 5.4 .03 .04

Meter readers, utilities ... 49 45 .03 51 .04 –8.8 4.2 –6 12.4 18.7 10.4 –.02 .01

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Share of

total job

growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute

percent error,

simulated

projections,

2000

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Occupation

1988

Total employment Percent change,

1988–2000

Level Level Share

(percent)

Projected

Share

(percent)

Actual

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Projected Actual

Projected 2000 Actual 2000
20 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Automotive mechanics

and service

technicians .................... 771 898 .66 798 .56 16.3 3.5 99 12.4 13.8 1.5 .70 .10

Recreation workers ......... 186 221 .16 252 .18 18.9 35.8 –32 12.5 .7 11.3 .19 .26

Geologists,

geophysicists,

and oceanographers ..... 42 49 .04 44 .03 15.7 2.7 6 12.6 11.1 .1 .04 .00

Human resources

managers ...................... 171 208 .15 239 .17 22.1 40.0 –31 12.8 10.0 6.8 .21 .27

Lawyers ........................... 582 763 .56 676 .47 31.0 16.0 87 12.9 1.6 11.0 1.00 .36

Photographers ................. 94 111 .08 128 .09 17.5 35.3 –17 13.2 61.1 3.6 .09 .13

Private detectives

and investigators .......... 47 61 .04 54 .04 30.8 15.5 7 13.2 24.4 2.7 .08 .03

Blue-collar worker

supervisors ................... 1,797 1,930 1.42 2,237 1.56 7.4 24.5 –307 13.7 12.0 2.7 .73 1.71

Stationary engineers ....... 36 36 .03 31 .02 –1.3 –13.6 4 14.2 11.5 1.3 .00 –.02

Textile drawout and

winding machine

operators and tenders .. 227 197 .14 172 .12 –13.3 –24.2 25 14.3 2.7 18.6 –.17 –.21

Interviewing clerks,

except personnel

and social welfare ......... 129 152 .11 133 .09 17.8 2.9 19 14.4 32.6 6.4 .13 .01

Laborers, landscaping

and groundskeeping ..... 806 998 .73 1,166 .81 23.8 44.6 –168 14.4 1.0 14.6 1.06 1.40

Cutting and slicing

machine setters,

operators,

and tenders ................... 91 80 .06 93 .06 –12.2 2.7 –14 14.5 15.4 3.7 –.06 .01

Government chief

executives and

legislators ...................... 69 71 .05 84 .06 3.0 20.7 –12 14.7 1.5 13.7 .01 .06

Automotive body

and related repairers ..... 214 270 .20 235 .16 26.2 10.0 35 14.7 18.4 2.7 .31 .08

Mobile heavy equipment

mechanics ..................... 108 124 .09 108 .07 14.4 –.4 16 14.9 6.5 31.7 .09 .00

Hairdressers,

hairstylists, and

cosmetologists ............. 609 683 .50 594 .41 12.1 –2.5 89 15.0 9.2 4.9 .41 –.06

Receptionists and

information clerks ......... 833 1,164 .85 1,370 .95 39.8 64.5 –206 15.0 3.0 8.5 1.83 2.09

Flight attendants ............. 88 123 .09 106 .07 38.7 20.5 16 15.1 81.6 36.0 .19 .07

Optometrists ................... 37 43 .03 37 .03 16.5 1.1 6 15.3 20.1 2.5 .03 .00

Extruding and forming

machine setters,

operators, and tenders . 100 106 .08 125 .09 6.3 25.5 –19 15.3 8.3 8.2 .03 .10

Water and liquid

waste treatment

plant and system

operators ....................... 76 87 .06 103 .07 14.5 35.5 –16 15.5 1.0 14.3 .06 .11

Biological scientists ........ 57 72 .05 85 .06 26.0 49.2 –13 15.6 19.1 6.0 .08 .11

Secretaries, except

legal and medical .......... 2,903 3,288 2.41 2,845 1.98 13.2 –2.0 443 15.6 30.8 10.5 2.12 –.23

Physicians ...................... 535 684 .50 591 .41 27.8 10.4 93 15.7 14.0 1.1 .82 .22

Printing press machine

 setters, operators,

and tenders ................... 108 119 .09 141 .10 9.5 30.1 –22 15.9 16.1 4.6 .06 .13

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Share of

total job

growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute

percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Actual Projected

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

1988

Level Level Share

(percent)

Share

(percent)

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Actual Projected

Percent change,

1988–2000 Total employment

Occupation

Projected 2000 Actual 2000
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 21

New-accounts clerks,

banking ......................... 108 129 .09 111 .08 19.0 2.5 18 16.2 2.4 14.8 .11 .01

Bus drivers, transit

and intercity .................. 157 175 .13 210 .15 11.7 33.8 –35 16.5 5.7 19.6 .10 .21

Bricklayers,

blockmasons,

and stonemasons ......... 167 193 .14 166 .12 15.8 –.6 27 16.5 14.4 1.9 .15 .00

Hotel, motel,

and resort desk clerks . 113 142 .10 170 .12 25.9 51.0 –28 16.7 18.8 2.5 .16 .22

Welders and cutters ....... 325 309 .23 371 .26 –5.0 14.1 –62 16.7 11.5 6.8 –.09 .18

Highway maintenance

workers ......................... 175 190 .14 163 .11 8.7 –6.9 27 16.7 34.6 12.3 .08 –.05

Police and detective

 supervisors .................. 88 97 .07 116 .08 10.1 32.3 –20 16.8 4.9 11.4 .05 .11

Library assistants and

bookmobile drivers ........ 105 111 .08 133 .09 5.8 27.2 –22 16.8 4.2 14.0 .03 .11

Tire repairers

and changers ................ 88 100 .07 85 .06 14.1 –2.6 15 17.1 20.3 2.1 .07 –.01

Budget analysts ............. 62 72 .05 61 .04 16.5 –.6 11 17.2 15.5 1.0 .06 .00

Driver/sales workers ....... 242 255 .19 308 .21 5.4 27.4 –53 17.3 13.6 4.8 .07 .26

Dentists ........................... 167 189 .14 161 .11 13.1 –3.7 28 17.5 22.6 2.7 .12 –.02

........................................

Construction managers ... 187 236 .17 287 .20 26.0 53.1 –51 17.7 8.8 5.7 .27 .39

Court reporters, medical

transcriptionists,

and stenographers ........ 159 122 .09 104 .07 –22.8 –34.4 18 17.7 28.0 .6 –.20 –.21

Counselors ...................... 124 157 .12 191 .13 26.9 54.3 –34 17.7 4.7 15.1 .18 .26

Public-relations

specialists ..................... 91 105 .08 128 .09 15.4 40.2 –23 17.7 20.1 7.1 .08 .14

Railroad conductors

and yardmasters ........... 27 21 .02 26 .02 –19.5 –2.1 –5 17.8 16.1 1.9 –.03 .00

Logging equipment

operators ....................... 46 44 .03 53 .04 –5.3 15.3 –9 17.9 11.3 1.3 –.01 .03

Science and

mathematics

technicians .................... 232 275 .20 233 .16 18.6 .5 42 18.1 13.4 4.3 .24 .00

Bus and truck

mechanics and diesel

engine specialists ......... 269 312 .23 264 .18 16.1 –1.8 48 18.3 20.8 .9 .24 –.02

Inspectors and

compliance officers,

except construction ...... 130 148 .11 181 .13 13.9 39.3 –33 18.3 18.0 1.2 .10 .20

Billing and posting

clerks and machine

operators ....................... 99 89 .07 109 .08 –9.5 10.7 –20 18.3 13.8 5.4 –.05 .04

Numerical control

machine tool operators

and tenders, metal

and plastic .................... 64 70 .05 86 .06 9.2 33.7 –16 18.3 15.7 10.1 .03 .08

Tool and die makers ........ 152 159 .12 135 .09 4.5 –11.7 25 18.4 26.8 6.2 .04 –.07

Chemical engineers ........ 49 57 .04 48 .03 16.4 –1.7 9 18.4 4.1 2.2 .04 .00

Couriers and

messengers .................. 123 147 .11 124 .09 19.4 .8 23 18.4 12.4 .3 .13 .00

Education

administrators ............... 320 382 .28 469 .33 19.4 46.6 –87 18.6 5.6 12.9 .34 .58

Firefighting and prevention supervisors ...... 47 51 .04 63 .04 9.5 34.8 –12 18.8 6.0 13.3 .02 .06

Dental assistants ............ 166 197 .14 243 .17 18.9 46.6 –46 18.9 4.3 15.0 .17 .30

 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Actual Projected

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Share of

total job

growth,

1988–2000

Absolute (percent)

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Occupation

1988

Level Level Share

(percent)

Share

(percent)

Projected

Actual

Total employment Percent change,

1988–2000

Projected 2000 Actual 2000
22 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Power-generating

and reactor plant

operators ....................... 33 37 .03 31 .02 11.0 –6.8 6 19.1 6.4 31.4 .02 –.01

Cost estimators .............. 169 195 .14 163 .11 15.4 –3.1 31 19.2 26.2 6.9 .14 –.02

Metal fabricators,

structural metal

products ........................ 40 39 .03 48 .03 –2.2 21.5 –9 19.5 4.2 12.4 .00 .03

Central office and PBX

installers and

repairers ........................ 75 59 .04 50 .03 –20.6 –33.7 10 19.7 48.7 18.8 –.09 –.10

Refuse and recyclable

 material collectors ....... 126 126 .09 105 .07 .1 –16.4 21 19.8 51.0 19.0 .00 –.08

Human resources,

training, and labor

relations specialists ...... 252 305 .22 381 .26 21.2 51.2 –75 19.8 18.7 4.5 .30 .50

Licensed practical and

licensed vocational

nurses ........................... 626 855 .63 713 .50 36.6 13.9 143 20.0 23.4 1.3 1.27 .34

Electrical power-line

installers and repairers . 104 122 .09 101 .07 16.8 –2.7 20 20.1 1.2 20.8 .10 –.01

Glaziers ........................... 49 58 .04 48 .03 17.6 –2.2 10 20.2 32.7 7.3 .05 .00

Carpet installers ............. 56 68 .05 85 .06 21.2 52.0 –17 20.3 14.2 1.6 .07 .11

Lathe and turning

machine tool setters

and setup operators,

metal and plastic .......... 89 86 .06 71 .05 –3.1 –19.5 14 20.3 29.8 9.8 –.02 –.07

Detectives and criminal

investigators ................. 61 66 .05 83 .06 8.9 36.7 –17 20.4 12.8 6.8 .03 .09

Upholsterers .................... 73 81 .06 67 .05 11.2 –7.7 14 20.5 12.8 8.0 .04 –.02

Teachers, preschool ....... 238 309 .23 389 .27 30.2 63.7 –80 20.5 5.9 22.5 .40 .59

Cashiers .......................... 2,310 2,614 1.92 3,289 2.29 13.2 42.4 –675 20.5 20.5 .2 1.68 3.81

Bartenders ...................... 414 506 .37 419 .29 22.1 1.3 86 20.5 27.2 5.6 .51 .02

Mechanical engineers ..... 225 269 .20 223 .16 19.8 –.7 46 20.7 11.6 1.1 .25 –.01

Dispatchers, police,

fire, and ambulance ...... 64 71 .05 89 .06 9.6 38.6 –19 20.9 6.3 15.0 .03 .10

Drafters ........................... 319 358 .26 296 .21 12.2 –7.3 62 21.0 25.1 6.3 .22 –.09

Photographic processing

machine operators

and tenders ................... 49 57 .04 47 .03 17.5 –3.0 10 21.1 29.1 16.3 .05 –.01

Social workers ................ 385 495 .36 629 .44 28.5 63.1 –133 21.2 12.7 7.9 .61 .95

Medical records and

health information

technicians .................... 47 75 .05 95 .07 59.9 103.1 –20 21.3 25.7 1.7 .15 .19

Crushing, grinding, mixing,

and blending machine

operators and tenders .. 136 117 .09 149 .10 –13.9 9.6 –32 21.4 21.0 .5 –.10 .05

Procurement clerks ........ 42 47 .03 59 .04 9.9 40.0 –13 21.5 27.4 2.6 .02 .07

Bindery machine

operators and setup

operators ....................... 63 71 .05 90 .06 11.4 42.1 –19 21.6 28.2 4.1 .04 .10

Office and administrative

support supervisors

and managers ............... 1,183 1,319 .97 1,683 1.17 11.5 42.3 –364 21.6 16.5 5.6 .75 1.95

Library technicians ......... 54 59 .04 76 .05 8.8 40.0 –17 22.3 8.5 13.6 .03 .08

Welding machine

setters, operators,

and tenders ................... 99 86 .06 110 .08 –13.7 11.1 –25 22.4 12.1 10.9 –.08 .04

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

1988

Occupation

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute

percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share

(percent)

Projected Actual

Total employment Percent change,

1988–2000

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Projected Actual
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 23

Butchers and

meatcutters ................... 258 269 .20 219 .15 4.5 –14.8 50 22.7 22.9 .5 .06 –.15

Food service and

lodging managers .......... 560 721 .53 587 .41 28.8 4.8 134 22.8 21.4 .3 .89 .11

Hosts and hostesses,

restaurant, lounge,

or coffee shop .............. 183 239 .18 310 .22 30.5 69.4 –71 23.0 19.6 4.4 .31 .50

Cleaners of vehicles

and equipment .............. 215 230 .17 299 .21 7.0 38.9 –69 23.0 2.9 17.2 .08 .33

Clergy .............................. 185 199 .15 162 .11 7.2 –12.9 37 23.0 75.9 34.0 .07 –.09

Machine tool cutting

operators and tenders,

metal and plastic .......... 148 133 .10 108 .08 –10.1 –26.9 25 23.1 34.8 8.8 –.08 –.16

Industrial engineers,

except safety

engineers ...................... 132 155 .11 126 .09 18.0 –4.2 29 23.2 9.2 5.9 .13 –.02

Industrial production

managers ...................... 215 254 .19 206 .14 18.0 –4.3 48 23.2 20.7 .7 .21 –.04

Animal caretakers,

except farm ................... 92 106 .08 138 .10 15.5 50.5 –32 23.2 6.3 13.7 .08 .18

Order clerks .................... 293 289 .21 377 .26 –1.5 28.7 –88 23.4 18.4 7.3 –.02 .33

Brokerage clerks ............ 64 66 .05 86 .06 3.1 34.9 –20 23.5 15.7 9.3 .01 .09

Laundry and

drycleaning machine

operators and tenders,

except pressing ............ 169 208 .15 168 .12 22.8 –1.0 40 24.1 18.6 4.6 .21 –.01

Excavation and loading

machine operators ........ 76 84 .06 111 .08 10.2 46.3 –27 24.7 20.7 6.0 .04 .14

Claims examiners,

property and casualty

 insurance ..................... 30 37 .03 49 .03 23.5 64.3 –12 24.8 24.3 2.5 .04 .07

Bakers, manufacturing ... 41 40 .03 53 .04 –3.2 29.6 –13 25.3 18.2 5.0 –.01 .05

Teachers, special

education ...................... 275 317 .23 429 .30 15.6 56.1 –111 26.0 13.2 14.8 .24 .60

Reservation and

transportation ticket

agents and travel

clerks ............................ 133 170 .12 230 .16 27.8 73.1 –60 26.2 6.2 27.4 .20 .38

Conservation scientists

and foresters ................ 27 30 .02 40 .03 8.3 47.9 –11 26.7 30.6 1.1 .01 .05

Insurance sales agents .. 423 481 .35 378 .26 13.7 –10.7 103 27.3 15.2 8.3 .32 –.18

Physical therapy

assistants and aides .... 39 60 .04 82 .06 52.5 109.7 –22 27.3 25.8 1.4 .11 .17

Administrative services

managers ...................... 217 274 .20 381 .27 26.2 75.4 –107 28.0 27.4 8.4 .31 .64

Electronics repairers,

commercial and

industrial

equipment...................... 79 92 .07 72 .05 17.1 –8.9 20 28.6 28.8 4.9 .07 –.03

Insurance claims

clerks ............................ 103 115 .08 162 .11 11.0 56.4 –47 29.0 27.6 1.3 .06 .23

Solderers and brazers .... 29 27 .02 38 .03 –5.7 33.2 –11 29.2 21.0 17.6 –.01 .04

Head sawyers and

 sawing machine

 operators and tenders,

 setters, and setup

 operators ....................... 80 86 .06 66 .05 7.5 –17.1 20 29.6 37.7 6.1 .03 –.05

Dental hygienists ............ 91 107 .08 152 .11 17.6 67.6 –45 29.8 16.8 15.5 .09 .24

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Occupation

1988

Level Share

(percent) Level

Share

(percent)

Projected

Percent change,

1988–2000 Total employment

Numerical

error,

2000

 (projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Actual

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Projected Actual

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern
24 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Proofreaders and

 copy markers ................. 33 31 .02 44 .03 –7.4 32.3 –13 30.0 1.7 10.1 –.01 .04

Personal care and

 home health aides ......... 327 535 .39 765 .53 63.3 133.8 –231 30.1 7.4 20.3 1.14 1.71

Drilling and boring

 machine tool setters

 and setup operators,

 metal and plastic ........... 56 54 .04 41 .03 –3.1 –26.0 13 30.9 40.1 6.4 –.01 –.06

Textile machine setters

and setup operators ..... 37 33 .02 26 .02 –8.7 –30.3 8 30.9 12.7 15.1 –.02 –.04

Chemical plant and

system operators .......... 35 28 .02 40 .03 –20.4 15.6 –12 31.1 37.7 9.9 –.04 .02

Radiologic technologists

and technicians ............ 132 218 .16 166 .12 66.0 26.3 52 31.4 27.7 4.1 .48 .13

Manicurists ...................... 26 33 .02 48 .03 26.2 84.6 –15 31.6 35.3 4.6 .04 .09

Dental laboratory

 technicians, precision ... 51 56 .04 42 .03 10.2 –16.5 13 31.9 20.2 8.7 .03 –.03

Occupational

therapists ...................... 33 48 .04 72 .05 48.8 121.1 –23 32.7 30.6 3.3 .09 .15

Correctional officers ....... 186 262 .19 398 .28 40.8 113.6 –136 34.1 25.9 10.9 .42 .82

Packaging and filling

machine operators

and tenders ................... 286 254 .19 385 .27 –11.4 34.4 –131 34.1 32.4 7.4 –.18 .38

Electrical and electronic

technicians and

technologists ................ 341 471 .35 351 .24 38.2 3.0 120 34.1 46.0 4.3 .72 .04

Crane and tower

operators ....................... 60 67 .05 50 .03 11.3 –17.0 17 34.2 25.3 3.8 .04 –.04

Sheriffs and deputy

sheriffs .......................... 63 63 .05 96 .07 –.4 51.5 –33 34.3 23.3 14.3 .00 .13

Actors, directors,

and producers ............... 80 104 .08 158 .11 29.6 97.2 –54 34.3 31.2 17.9 .13 .30

Gas and petroleum

plant and system

occupations .................. 30 22 .02 34 .02 –24.4 15.3 –12 34.5 49.0 28.0 –.04 .02

Teacher assistants ......... 682 827 .61 1,269 .88 21.3 86.0 –441 34.8 21.5 16.0 .80 2.28

Child care workers,

private household ......... 375 347 .25 257 .18 –7.5 –31.4 90 34.9 10.6 22.0 –.16 –.46

Plasterers and stucco

masons ......................... 26 29 .02 44 .03 8.1 66.6 –15 35.1 34.7 .3 .01 .07

Operating engineers ....... 158 179 .13 132 .09 13.4 –16.3 47 35.4 48.5 6.4 .12 –.10

Machine builders and

other precision machine

assemblers .................... 55 47 .03 73 .05 –14.8 32.5 –26 35.7 34.6 5.8 –.04 .07

Speech-language

pathologists and

audiologists ................... 53 68 .05 106 .07 27.8 99.1 –38 35.8 30.9 7.9 .08 .21

Dining room and

cafeteria attendants

and bar helpers ............. 448 578 .42 425 .30 29.0 –5.1 153 36.0 44.0 5.7 .72 –.09

Judges, magistrates,

 and other judicial

 workers .......................... 40 47 .03 74 .05 17.9 84.3 –27 36.0 28.6 .4 .04 .13

Economists and

marketing research

analysts ........................ 36 45 .03 71 .05 27.2 99.0 –26 36.1 40.9 5.5 .05 .14

Forest and conservation

workers ......................... 40 44 .03 32 .02 10.7 –18.6 12 36.1 30.5 5.6 .02 –.03

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Occupation

1988

Level Share

(percent) Level Share

(percent)

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Percent change,

1988–2000 Total employment

Projected

Actual

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Projected Actual

Absolute percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 25

Counter and rental

clerks ............................ 241 308 .23 486 .34 27.7 101.2 –177 36.5 51.4 6.0 .37 .95

Teachers and instructors,

vocational education

and training ................... 239 255 .19 405 .28 6.6 69.4 –150 37.1 27.4 9.9 .09 .65

Sales agents, real

estate ............................ 311 361 .26 263 .18 16.0 –15.6 98 37.4 32.4 6.5 .27 –.19

Machine assemblers ....... 47 41 .03 66 .05 –11.8 42.6 –25 38.1 34.8 6.5 –.03 .08

Insurance underwriters ... 103 134 .10 97 .07 29.4 –6.4 37 38.3 33.2 4.2 .17 –.03

Small-engine mechanics . 43 50 .04 36 .03 18.2 –14.9 14 38.8 36.1 .9 .04 –.02

Chemical equipment

controllers, operators,

and tenders ................... 70 59 .04 97 .07 –15.5 38.5 –38 39.0 44.1 7.0 –.06 .10

Amusement and

recreation attendants ... 175 217 .16 360 .25 23.7 105.0 –143 39.6 20.4 24.2 .23 .72

Fishers ............................ 46 50 .04 36 .03 8.6 –22.2 14 39.7 19.9 16.7 .02 –.04

Social and human

 service assistants ....... 118 171 .13 284 .20 44.9 140.7 –113 39.8 29.0 12.3 .29 .65

Switchboard operators .... 254 316 .23 225 .16 24.3 –11.4 91 40.2 34.2 8.0 .34 –.11

Agricultural and food

scientists ...................... 25 30 .02 22 .02 20.8 –13.9 9 40.3 36.0 4.2 .03 –.01

Central office operators.. 43 36 .03 26 .02 –14.9 –39.4 10 40.4 74.1 19.4 –.04 –.07

Pharmacy aides .............. 70 89 .07 63 .04 27.1 –9.8 26 40.9 35.9 3.1 .10 –.03

Data-processing

equipment repairers ...... 71 115 .08 81 .06 61.2 14.3 33 41.0 54.7 19.2 .24 .04

Bill and account

collectors ...................... 149 195 .14 330 .23 30.7 121.8 –136 41.1 40.4 4.2 .25 .71

Electronic home entertainment equipment

repairers ........................ 44 49 .04 35 .02 12.6 –20.7 15 42.1 45.2 2.5 .03 –.04

Correspondence clerks ... 29 37 .03 26 .02 27.3 –10.4 11 42.1 58.4 10.8 .04 –.01

Shipping, receiving,

and traffic clerks .......... 535 591 .43 1,025 .71 10.4 91.5 –434 42.4 37.8 4.4 .31 1.91

Roustabouts, oil

and gas ......................... 39 39 .03 27 .02 1.1 –29.2 12 42.8 6.0 34.9 .00 –.04

Emergency medical

technicians and

paramedics .................... 76 86 .06 152 .11 13.0 99.1 –66 43.2 20.8 24.7 .05 .29

Parking lot attendants .... 47 54 .04 95 .07 14.1 101.1 –41 43.3 26.8 3.9 .04 .19

Medical secretaries ........ 207 327 .24 227 .16 58.0 10.0 99 43.6 50.5 2.0 .66 .08

Pressing machine

operators and tenders,

textile, garment, and

related materials ........... 87 95 .07 66 .05 9.3 –24.0 29 43.8 21.9 15.9 .04 .08

Brokers, real estate ........ 70 84 .06 58 .04 19.7 –16.7 25 43.8 39.2 3.1 .08 –.05

Management analysts ..... 130 176 .13 313 .22 35.0 140.3 –137 43.8 53.9 3.5 .25 .71

Cannery workers ............. 71 70 .05 48 .03 –2.1 –32.0 21 44.0 33.6 5.2 –.01 –.09

Adjustment clerks ........... 231 278 .20 505 .35 20.2 118.3 –227 45.0 41.4 8.5 .26 1.07

Hand packers and

packagers ..................... 635 560 .41 1,019 .71 –11.8 60.5 –459 45.1 41.8 8.8 –.41 1.49

Ophthalmic laboratory

technicians .................... 26 33 .02 23 .02 28.1 –12.1 10 45.7 23.4 26.1 .04 –.01

Electrical and electronic

assemblers .................... 237 134 .10 246 .17 –43.6 4.0 –113 45.8 50.5 18.4 –.57 .04

Ushers, lobby

attendants, and ticket

takers ............................ 44 48 .04 89 .06 8.0 100.1 –41 46.0 24.9 26.8 .02 .17

........................................

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Projected

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Projected

Actual

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Total employment Percent change,

1988–2000

Occupation

1988

Level Share

(percent)

Level Share Actual

(percent)
26 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

Boilermakers ................... 25 27 .02 18 .01 8.9 –25.6 8 46.4 57.4 6.4 .01 –.02

Psychiatric aides ............ 114 141 .10 96 .07 23.6 –15.7 45 46.6 41.8 2.5 .15 –.07

Computer operators,

except peripheral

equipment ...................... 275 354 .26 241 .17 29.0 –12.0 113 46.7 74.8 10.2 .44 –.13

Barbers ........................... 76 76 .06 52 .04 .2 –31.8 24 46.9 30.0 15.2 .00 –.09

Jewelers and preciousstone and -metal

workers ......................... 36 42 .03 28 .02 15.9 –21.2 13 47.1 40.4 2.7 .03 –.03

Electronic semiconductor processors ... 38 34 .02 65 .05 –10.8 72.8 –32 48.4 48.8 .2 –.02 .11

Directors, religious

activities and

education ...................... 56 62 .05 121 .08 9.8 116.9 –60 49.4 22.6 36.8 .03 .25

Home appliance

and power tool

repairers ........................ 76 76 .06 51 .04 –.5 –33.4 25 49.5 47.4 9.5 .00 –.10

Broadcast and

sound technicians ........ 27 19 .01 39 .03 –31.1 41.5 –20 51.3 51.5 6.2 –.05 .04

Telephone and

cable TV line

installers and

repairers ........................ 127 100 .07 206 .14 –21.3 62.5 –106 51.6 36.4 23.9 –.15 .31

Electrical and

electronic equipment

assemblers,

precision ....................... 161 91 .07 197 .14 –43.8 21.8 –106 53.9 60.1 17.8 –.39 0.14

Shoe and leather

workers and

repairers, precision ....... 32 32 .02 20 .01 .1 –36.4 12 57.5 10.6 67.7 .00 –.04

Purchasing

managers ...................... 252 289 .21 182 .13 14.4 –28.0 107 58.8 60.6 1.4 .20 –.27

Precision instrument

repairers ........................ 46 50 .04 31 .02 7.8 –33.6 19 62.4 45.3 11.6 .02 –.06

Cutters and

trimmers, hand .............. 63 65 .05 39 .03 2.7 –37.2 25 63.6 58.5 10.2 .01 –.09

Travel agents .................. 142 219 .16 133 .09 54.1 –6.2 85 64.2 66.6 .4 .42 –.03

Instructors, adult

(nonvocational)

education ...................... 227 268 .20 163 .11 17.9 –28.3 105 64.5 75.3 13.8 .23 –.25

Electrical and

electronics engineers ... 439 615 .45 369 .26 40.0 –16.0 246 66.7 63.2 4.7 .97 –.27

Aerospace engineers ...... 78 88 .06 52 .04 12.7 –32.5 35 67.0 12.1 43.6 .05 –.10

Station installers and

repairers, telephone ..... 58 47 .03 27 .02 –19.8 –52.6 19 69.3 108.5 19.1 –.06 –.12

Fallers and buckers ........ 36 30 .02 18 .01 –17.2 –51.2 12 69.6 66.3 1.4 –.03 –.07

Sewing machine

operators, garment ....... 620 531 .39 297 .21 –14.3 –52.2 235 79.2 14.3 56.6 –.49 –1.26

Peripheral equipment

operators ....................... 42 54 .04 30 .02 29.0 –28.3 24 80.0 98.8 14.1 .07 –.05

Wholesale and retail

buyers, except farm

products ........................ 207 220 .16 120 .08 6.3 –42.1 100 83.6 87.2 .9 .07 –.34

Offset lithographic

press operators ............ 91 114 .08 62 .04 25.3 –32.4 53 85.3 77.7 9.0 .13 –.11

Compositors and

typesetters,

precision ....................... 26 25 .02 13 .01 –4.8 –49.4 12 88.2 65.0 12.9 –.01 –.05

........................................

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Actual

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Projected 1988 Actual

Occupation

Absolute percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Level Level Share

(percent)

ProShare jected

(percent)

Percent change,

1988–2000 Total employment

Projected 2000 Actual 2000
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 27

Word processors

and typists .................... 985 924 .68 482 .34 –6.2 –51.1 442 91.7 129.2 12.4 –.34 –1.96

Railroad brake, signal,

and switch operators .... 37 29 .02 14 .01 –22.9 –61.5 14 100.4 103.4 1.6 –.05 –.09

Aircraft assemblers,

precision ....................... 31 31 .02 15 .01 –1.7 –52.8 16 108.1 27.9 54.6 .00 –.06

Statement clerks ............ 32 33 .02 16 .01 2.6 –50.8 17 108.7 82.8 13.9 .00 –.06

Furnace, kiln, oven,

drier, or kettle

operators and tenders .. 62 52 .04 25 .02 –16.9 –60.5 27 110.6 114.5 .2 –.06 –.15

........................................

Custom tailors and

 sewers ......................... 130 146 .11 68 .05 12.4 –47.9 78 115.6 97.9 10.5 .09 –.24

Service station

attendants ..................... 308 331 .24 140 .10 7.4 –54.6 191 136.6 126.9 2.7 .13 –.65

Housekeepers

and butlers .................... 34 33 .02 13 .01 –2.6 –60.5 20 146.4 102.0 22.0 .00 –.08

Typesetting and

composing machine

operators and tenders .. 39 45 .03 13 .01 14.3 –66.3 31 238.8 186.4 14.2 .03 –.10

Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual

[Numbers in thousands]

Occupation

Total employment

1988

Level

Projected Share

(percent)

Actual

Ratio of

actual

staffing

pattern

to projected

industry

totals

Ratio of

actual

industry

totals

to projected

staffing

pattern

Absolute

percent

error,

original

projections,

20001

Share of total

job growth,

1988–2000

(percent)

Absolute percent

error, simulated

projections,

2000

Numerical

error,

2000

(projected

level

minus

actual

level)

Actual Projected Share

(percent Level

Projected 2000 Actual 2000

Percent change,

1988–2000

occupations. Employment of operators, fabricators, and

laborers was expected to change little over the projection

period, but it actually grew close to 13.6 percent between

1988 and 2000. Employment of transportation and materialmoving machine and vehicle operators, a category that

includes truck and bus drivers, was off by about 516,000

workers. The underprojection of transportation workers alone

accounted for more than one-third of the projection error for

all operators, fabricators, and laborers. Some of the overall

projection error for this major group also can be attributed to

an underprojection of helpers, laborers, and material movers,

including freight, stock, and material movers and hand

packers and packagers, by about 421,000 workers. The

underlying assumption behind the projection was that

increasing automation would lead to less demand for these

workers; the impact, however, was overestimated. Helpers,

laborers, and material movers contributed about one-fourth

of the error for the entire group.

Employment of marketing and sales occupations was

expected to increase 20 percent between 1988 and 2000, but it

actually grew 27.9 percent. This underprojection of about

950,000 workers resulted primarily from an underestimate of

cashiers by more than 600,000 workers. Employment of

cashiers was projected to grow only about as fast as the

average for all occupations, with more widespread use of bar

code readers increasing the productivity of workers in this

category. In actuality, employment grew much faster than

average: 42.4 percent between 1988 and 2000. At the same

time, employment of retail salespersons increased by about

340,000 workers. A large increase in discount retailers over the

projection period was expected to slow the demand for retail

salespersons, but it appears that the impact was overestimated.

The two occupations combined (that is, cashiers and retail

salespersons) contributed about four-fifths of the total error

for the entire major group.

The category of administrative support occupations,

including clerical, was underprojected by 865,000 workers.

Employment of adjusters, investigators, and collectors grew much

faster than projected, resulting in an underprojection of about

401,000 workers. By contrast, employment of secretaries,

stenographers, and typists was overprojected by more than 1

million workers and contributed more than one-fifth of the total

error for the major group. This detailed group of occupations was

expected to grow more slowly than average, on the basis of the

assumption that increasing office automation would decrease

the demand for these workers. However, the group’s employment

actually declined over the projection period. In contrast to the

assumptions regarding automation for operators, fabricators, and

laborers, the effects of automation on secretaries, stenographers,

and typists were underestimated.
28 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

The category of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related

occupations was the only major category for which the

direction of the change in employment was not correctly

projected. Employment was expected to decline slightly, but

it actually grew by about 14 percent. Although the numerical

error was modest compared with that of other groups, the

absolute percent error was the highest. It appears, however,

that the error for this group was significantly affected by

changes to the occupational classification system in the early

1990s. Existing occupational definitions were revised, and new

occupations within agriculture, forestry, and fishing were

added to the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES)

survey, resulting in shifts in employment that accounted for

the growth in the group.3

Detailed occupations

In addition to the nine major occupational groups, employment projections for 1988–2000 were developed for nearly

500 detailed occupations. However, occupations with 25,000

or fewer workers in 1988 were eliminated from the analysis,

leaving 338 occupations for which projections were evaluated.4

 Table 2 presents data on each of the remaining

occupations, ranked by absolute percent error. The absolute

percent errors for all 338 occupations averaged about 23.2

percent.5 Approximately two-thirds of the occupations had

below-average errors.

The last two columns of table 2 present the projected and

actual share of total job growth. Although there are some

notable exceptions, the projected shares for the detailed

occupations, like those for the major groups, were relatively

accurate.

The majority of occupations had absolute projection errors below 20 percent. (See table 3.) These 197 occupations

accounted for almost 74 percent of total occupational

employment. Only 57 occupations had absolute average

errors above 40 percent, a little more than 7 percent of

employment.

Consistent with findings of past evaluations, projection error

continues to be inversely related to employment size. In 1988,

155 out of the 338 occupations analyzed had between 25,000 and

100,000 workers. These 155 occupations had an average

projection error of about 23.3 percent. However, as the following

tabulation shows, the 39 occupations with more than 600,000

workers had an average error of only 14.8 percent:

Occupations by size Mean absolute

of employment percent error

Less than100,000 .......................................................... 28.4

 25,000 to 49,999 ......................................................... 32.7

 50,000 to 99,999 ........................................................ 23.6

100,000 to 299,999 ...................................................... 20.1

300,000 to 599,999 ....................................................... 20.0

500,000 or more .......................................................... 14.5

600,000 or more ......................................................... 14.8

All occupations evaluated ............................................. 23.2

Proportion of occupations with

 a lower-than-average error ........................................ 66.6

The direction of employment change was projected correctly

for roughly 70 percent of the occupations included in the

evaluation.6 Employment growth was projected for the

majority of the occupations. Of the 232 occupations that

actually grew between 1988 and 2000, an increase was projected for all but 30. However, of the 106 occupations for which

employment declined, only 32 were projected to decline over

the period.

Consistent with past evaluations, the 1988–2000 projections appear to be conservative in nature. For those occupations in which the direction of change was correctly anticipated, more than two-thirds were underprojected. In fact, of

the two-thirds of occupations that were projected to grow by

less than 30 percent, only about one-third actually did so. A

higher proportion of occupations grew by more than 30

percent over the projection period. At the same time, only

about 11.5 percent of the occupations were projected to grow

by more than 30 percent, and one-third actually did. The same

is true for occupations at the other extreme: more of the

occupations shrank than were originally projected to. (See

table 4.)

Sources of error

Errors in the projections for individual occupations can

ultimately be traced back to errors in assumptions or judgments, resulting in incorrectly projected changes in staffing

patterns, industry projections, or a combination of both. To

determine whether projection errors could in fact be traced

back to the one or the other, two matrices were created, for

purposes of simulation. The first matrix was generated by

multiplying the projected 2000 staffing patterns of industries

by the actual 2000 industry employment numbers. This matrix

reveals the outcome if perfect industry employment had been

projected, isolating errors in the projections due to analytical

judgments about changes in the staffing patterns. The second

matrix was generated by multiplying the actual 2000 staffing

patterns7

 by the 2000 projected industry totals. This matrix

reveals the outcome if perfect staffing patterns had been

projected, isolating errors due to incorrect industry projections.

The 2000 employment figure for each occupation from each

matrix was then compared with the actual 2000 employment

figure, and an absolute percent error was calculated. The two

columns headed “Absolute percent error, simulated

projections, 2000” in table 2 present projection errors from the

two matrices created to analyze these effects. The two errors

for an occupation can then be compared. If one error is
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 29

significantly higher than the other, the source of the error can

be traced back to either the staffing pattern or the industry

projection. For example, one can see clearly that the projection

error for service station attendants is attributable more to

errors in projected staffing patterns than to incorrect industry

projections. The absolute percent error for service station

attendants, 136.6 percent, was one of the largest. The error in

the relevant matrix, using actual staffing patterns and projected industry totals, is 2.7 percent, whereas it is 127 percent

with actual industry totals and projected staffing patterns.

Slow growth was projected for service station attendants,

with more repair and maintenance work seen moving outside

of service stations. However, employment actually declined

between 1988 and 2000, and most gas stations are now selfservice only, no longer offering routine vehicle maintenance

and having customers pump their own gas and even pay at the

pump. The opposite is true in the case of aerospace engineers,

an occupation with an absolute error of 67 percent. The percent

error with projected staffing patterns and actual industry

totals is 12.1 percent, and the error with actual staffing

patterns and projected industry totals is 43.6 percent.

Employment of aerospace engineers is concentrated in the

aerospace manufacturing industry, which was projected to

grow 0.3 percent annually, but actually declined by about 3.9

percent, on average, each year between 1988 and 2000.

About 54 percent of the occupations had errors attributable more to changes in the staffing pattern, and 21 percent

had errors attributable more to industry projections. The

remaining 25 percent of occupations had errors equally

attributable to staffing pattern changes and industry

projections. In most cases, both errors in industry projections

and errors in staffing pattern projections had a small impact

on accuracy, even if the errors were attributable more to one

or the other factor.

Job clusters. In investigating sources of projection error, it

is helpful to examine groups of related occupations, or job

clusters. Several such clusters are examined closely in this

section because they have large projection errors or because

they highlight specific sources of error. In the case of many

health-care-related occupations, for example, errors in the

projections are attributable mainly to incorrect assumptions

behind the projections of the utilization of workers in the

occupation by industry. (See table 5.) The first group of healthcare workers listed in the table is labeled the health-diagnosing

occupations and consists of optometrists, physicians, and

dentists. All of the health-diagnosing occupations actually

grew more slowly than projected. For example, physicians

were projected to grow 27.8 percent, but grew only 10.4

percent. (See table 2.) Dentists actually declined 3.7 percent,

instead of growing 13.1 percent as projected.

The second and third groups of occupations listed in the

table are dubbed health assessment and treating occupations

and health technicians and technologists, respectively. Most

Table 4. Distribution of projected and actual percent changes

Projected Actual

 Range of percent changes

Number Percent of total Number Percent of total

 Total ............................................................. 338 100.0 338 100.0

Greater than 60 ....................................................... 5 1.5 39 11.5

60 down to, but not including, 50 ............................ 9 2.7 13 3.8

50 down to, but not including, 40 ............................ 6 1.8 20 5.9

40 down to, but not including, 30 ............................ 19 5.6 35 10.4

30 down to, but not including, 20 ............................ 60 17.8 33 9.8

20 down to, but not including, 10 ............................ 114 33.7 58 17.2

10 down to, but not including, 0 ............................. 58 17.2 34 10.1

0 or less ................................................................... 67 19.8 106 31.4

Table 3. Distribution of occupational absolute percent errors

 Number of occupations Percent of occupations Percent of employment

 with errors in range with errors in range accounted for

0 up to, but not including, 10 ......... 116 34.3 53,826 48.1

10 up to, but not including, 20 ....... 81 24.0 28,708 25.7

20 up to, but not including, 30 ....... 48 14.2 13,843 12.4

30 up to, but not including, 40 ....... 36 10.7 7,329 6.6

40 up to, but not including, 50 ....... 30 8.9 5,377 4.8

50 up to, but not including, 60 ....... 5 1.5 643 .6

60 or greater ................................... 22 6.5 2,140 1.9

 NOTE: Average absolute percent error for all occupations is 23.2 percent.

 Range of absolute

percent errors

Employment totals

accounted for

(thousands)
30 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

of these occupations grew faster than projected. For example,

occupational therapists were projected to grow 48.8 percent,

but actually grew 121.1 percent; and medical records and

health information technicians were projected to grow 59.9

percent, but actually grew 103.1 percent. Both of these

occupations were among the fastest-growing occupations

between 1988 and 2000.

The main assumption behind the projected changes in

staffing patterns for health-diagnosing occupations was that

these occupations would decline as a share of the workforce

in offices of health practitioners because of an increase in

large group practices requiring a higher proportion of support

staff. Among the major assumptions behind the expected

increase in utilization of the other two groups of health-care

workers was an increase in outpatient services and a shifting

of responsibilities to lower skilled health-care workers in an

attempt to contain costs. Because the health-diagnosing

occupations were overprojected, the effects that group

practices would have on the staffing patterns of doctors’

offices appears to have been underestimated. The growing

reliance on lower skilled health-care workers to carry out more

routine tasks also appears to have been underestimated,

because of the overly conservative projections for these occupations.

In contrast, the projection errors for occupations concentrated in the education services industry can be attributed

more to error in the projection of industry employment rather

than staffing. Overall employment in education services was

projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, but

it actually grew at a rate of 3.2 percent. Table 6 shows that the

absolute percent errors are higher in the simulation testing for

industry error, not only for teachers, but also for related occupations, such as counselors and school bus drivers. All of

these occupations were underprojected.

A main contributor to growth in educational services is an

increase in school enrollment, which is a reflection of the

population growth of youths aged 5 to 17 years. In 1988, the

Census Bureau projected an increase of 2 million among the

elementary school population by 2000. This population

actually increased by approximately 4.4 million. Also, in 1988

the Census Bureau projected an increase of 1.3 million in the

secondary school population by 2000; it actually increased

by 1.7 million.8

 Faster growth in the school-aged population

caused enrollment rates to rise and increased the demand for

teachers over the 1988–2000 period.

Errors in the projections for textile workers also can be

traced back to incorrect projections in the industries in which

they are employed. However, this group of occupations

differs from those previously discussed, because employment

was projected to decline rather than grow. Employment of

textile workers is concentrated in three industries: knitting

mills; apparel; and weaving, finishing, and yarn and thread

mills. Overall employment in all of these industries declined at

a faster rate than was projected. The category of knitting mills

was projected to decline by 1.5 percent annually, but employment actually declined by 4.3 percent. Apparel was projected

to decline by 1.5 percent annually, but actually declined by 6

percent. The category of weaving, finishing, and yarn and

thread mills was projected to decline by 1.2 percent, but

actually declined by 2.8 percent. As a result, the occupations

in table 7 also declined faster than projected. For example, the

category of sewing machine operators was projected to

decline 14 percent, but actually declined by 52 percent and

ended up as the occupation with second-largest job decline.

While the major assumptions for the decline—a shift in U.S.

apparel production overseas to countries with lower labor

costs, an increase in cheap apparel imports, and greater worker

productivity through the introduction of new labor-saving

Table 5. Sources of projection error for health-care-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of

 total job growth, 1988–2000

Health-diagnosing occupations:

 Optometrists ................................................................ 15.3 20.1 2.5 0.0 0.0

 Physicians ................................................................... 15.7 14.0 1.1 .8 .2

 Dentists ....................................................................... 17.5 22.6 2.7 .1 .0

.......................................................................................

Health-assessment and -treating occupations: ............

 Physician assistants ................................................... 11.1 8.5 3.0 .1 .1

 Occupational therapists .............................................. 32.7 30.6 3.3 .1 .2

 Speech-language pathologists and audiologists ........ 35.8 30.9 7.9 .1 .2

.......................................................................................

Health technicians and technologists: ..........................

 Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians ...... 11.0 15.7 5.3 .3 .3

 Medical records and health information technicians .. 21.3 25.7 1.7 .2 .2

 1 Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection.

Occupation

Projected Actual

Absolute

percent error

(ratio of actual

industry totals to

projected

staffing patterns)

Absolute

 percent

error1

Absolute percent

error (ratio of actual

staffing patterns to

projected industry

totals)

Share of total job

growth (percent)
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 31

machinery—were correct, the impact of these trends on

employment appears to have been underestimated.

The Occupational Outlook Handbook9

Projections of employment change are the foundation for

statements on job outlooks in reports and career guidance

publications. Accordingly, the quality of the information

those statements provide depends on the accuracy of the

projections on which they are based. Identifying sources of

error and bias and evaluating their effects enables the Bureau

of Labor Statistics to improve the accuracy of its projections.

An evaluation, however, also helps users whose decisions

may be guided by the projections—a group that includes

career guidance counselors, education planners, training

officials, jobseekers, and students. Utilizing the information

presented in an evaluation, all of these individuals can assess

the reliability of job outlook statements. Therefore, significant

weight should be given to evaluating discussions of employment change, as well as to evaluating discussions of employment levels.

The 1988–2000 occupational employment projections were

the basis for the job outlook information presented in the

1990–91 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. In

the Handbook, growth descriptors are used to give readers a

general impression of job prospects in each occupation. The

following descriptors relating to ranges of employment

growth or decline between 1988 and 2000 were used:10

Projected change

 in employment,

 Growth descriptor 1988–2000

Much faster than average ... Increase of 31 or more percent

Faster than average ............. Increase of 20 percent to 30 percent

About as fast as average ..... Increase of 11 percent to 19 percent

More slowly than average .. Increase of 4 percent to 10 percent

Little or no change .............. Increase or decrease of 3 percent or less

Decline ................................ Decrease of 4 percent or more

Table 8 gives a summary of the distributions of growth

descriptors of occupations and also reinforces the conservative nature of the projections. Overall, 87 occupations

ended up in the growth category projected, and another 100

occupations were one category higher or lower. The largest

number of occupations was projected to grow about as fast

as average. The majority actually grew much faster than

average or declined. About 30 percent of all occupations were

projected to have average growth, whereas only 14.8 percent

actually did so. A little more than 26 percent of the occupations were projected to either grow faster than the

average or decline; in actuality, almost 60 percent of the

occupations fell into one of these two categories.

More than 65 percent of occupations projected to be in

the much-faster-than-average category and almost 50 percent

of declining occupations actually fell into their respective

categories, making these categories the most accurate in terms

of number of occupations. Of those occupations projected to

grow as fast as average, only 20 percent actually did so. The

higher degree of accuracy in the extreme-growth categories

suggests that the accuracy of the BLS projections is greatest

where there is actual strong growth or strong decline.

Fastest-growing occupations. The high degree of accuracy

in projecting employment in those occupations which grew

much faster than average becomes evident when one examines the 20 occupations projected to be the fastest growing.11

(See table 9.) The average absolute error for this group was

23.6 percent, slightly higher than the 23.3-percent average

error for all occupations. Only 6 of the 20 occupations projected to be fastest growing ranked among the top 20 actual

fastest-growing occupations, 4 of which are health-carerelated occupations. However, when all occupations were

ranked on the basis of their actual percent change between

1988 and 2000, 15 of the 20 projected to grow the fastest

ranked among the top 25 percent of occupations that actually

did. All of these occupations were projected to have much

faster than average growth, and all but 5 actually grew much

faster than average. Of the 20 fastest-growing occupations,

Table 6. Sources of projection error for education-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of total

 job growth, 1988–2000

Projected Actual

Teachers, secondary school ............... 7.8 8.1 14.8 1.24 1.33

Bus drivers, school ............................. 8.7 7.9 15.5 .38 .43

Counselors ........................................... 17.7 4.7 15.1 .18 .26

Education administrators ..................... 18.6 5.6 12.9 .34 .58

Teachers, preschool ............................ 20.5 5.9 22.5 .40 .59

 1 Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection.

Absolute

percent

error1

Absolute percent

error (ratio of

actual industry

totals to

projected staffing

patterns)

Absolute percent

error (ratio of

actual staffing

patterns to

projected industry

totals)

Share of total job

growth (percent)

Occupations
32 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

the average growth, in percentage terms, was 55 percent;

however, the actual average growth rate of those occupations, 110 percent, was double the projected rate.

Employment grew in all but two of the occupations

projected to be among the 20 fastest growing, suggesting

that the basic BLS assumptions about growth tended to be

accurate; however, employment was either under- or overestimated. For example, the technological advances in radiology and the increasing importance of the discipline in

diagnosing disease and injury were the major reasons that

much faster than average growth was projected for radiologic technologists and technicians. However, the growth of

that occupation seems to have been limited, possibly by the

high cost of implementing the technology.12 Nonetheless,

the fundamental BLS assumptions about growth for the

occupation were correct, and although it was not actually

among the 20 fastest-growing occupations, radiologic

technologists and technicians still experienced faster-thanaverage employment growth.

Employment was overestimated to a larger degree for dataprocessing equipment repairers and medical secretaries.

Employment in these occupations had average and slowerthan-average growth, respectively. In the case of data-processing equipment repairers, faster-than-average growth was

projected because of rapid increases in the use of office

computers and other technology that requires repair workers.

However, employment growth was limited because the increased

quality of the machines caused fewer breakdowns and many

computers were designed to self-diagnose problems. In the case

of medical secretaries, increased use of automated office

technology hindered employment growth. Also, as technology

shortened the completion time of tasks, other medical staff, such

as medical assistants, performed tasks traditionally carried out by

medical secretaries, further hindering their growth.

Occasionally, unforeseen changes in technology, business

practices, or governmental regulations affect occupations to a

significant degree. It is often difficult or impossible to anticipate

and incorporate such changes into the growth assumptions for

some occupations, and the changes frequently result in

projection error. For example, the category of travel agents was

among the 20 occupations projected to be the fastest growing,

but it actually declined between 1988 and 2000. Travel agents

were projected to have such high growth, in percentage terms,

because of an increase in business travel and disposable

income. These assumptions were correct; however, the development and use of the Internet and online travel services,

enabling consumers to shop for the best deals and book trips

themselves, were not anticipated in 1988.13

Another source of error in the BLS projections was the

change in the classification system of occupations upon which

Table 7. Sources of projection error for textile-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of

 total job growth, 1988–2000

 Actual

Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators

and tenders ............................................................. 6.0 13.4 23.0 0.0 0.0

Textile drawout and winding machine operators

and tenders ............................................................. 14.3 2.7 18.6 –.2 –.2

Textile machine setters and setup operators ............ 30.9 12.7 15.1 .0 .0

Shoe and leather workers and repairers, precision .. 57.5 10.6 67.7 .0 .0

Sewing machine operators, garment .......................... 79.2 14.3 56.6 –.5 –1.3

1 Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection.

Table 8. Distribution of projected and actual growth descriptors

 Total ............................................ 338 87 36 25 50 34 106

Declining ...................................... 51 25 5 4 6 1 10

Little or no change ....................... 32 16 5 5 0 4 2

Slower than average .................... 50 12 3 5 8 7 15

Average ........................................ 101 20 19 6 21 13 22

Faster than average .................... 66 12 3 4 9 6 32

Much faster than average ........... 38 2 1 1 6 3 25

Absolute

percent

error1

Absolute percent

error (ratio of actual

staffing patterns to

projected staffing

patterns)

Absolute percent

error (ratio of actual

staffing patterns to

projected industry

totals)

Share of total job growth

(percent)

Projected

Occupation

Projected growth category

Projected

number of

occupations in

each growth

category

Actual number of occupations in each growth category

Much faster

than

average

Faster than

average Declining Little or nochange

Slower than

average Average
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 33

Table 9. Projected and actual occupational employment rankings, by change from 1988 to 2000

Projected rank, Actual rank, Absolute

1988–2000 1988–2000 percent error

 Fastest-growing occupations

Paralegals and legal assistants ............................................................ 1 28 2.8

Medical assistants ................................................................................. 2 23 4.0

Radiologic technologists and technicians ............................................ 3 124 31.4

Personal care and home health aides ................................................... 4 3 30.1

Data-processing equipment repairers ................................................... 5 170 41.0

Medical records and health information technicians ............................ 6 11 21.3

Medical secretaries ............................................................................... 7 198 43.6

Physical therapists ................................................................................ 8 27 8.4

Surgical technologists ........................................................................... 9 44 .8

Operations research analysts ............................................................... 10 49 2.6

Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents ............ 11 40 1.8

Travel agents ......................................................................................... 12 260 64.2

Systems analysts .................................................................................. 13 38 5.5

Physical therapy assistants and aides ................................................. 14 9 27.3

Occupational therapists ........................................................................ 15 5 32.7

Computer programmers .......................................................................... 16 70 5.1

Social and human service assistants ................................................... 17 1 39.8

Respiratory therapists ........................................................................... 18 42 9.3

Correctional officers .............................................................................. 19 8 34.1

Electrical and electronics engineers ..................................................... 20 287 66.7

 Occupations with the largest job growth

Retail salespersons .............................................................................. 1 15 8.1

Registered nurses ................................................................................ 2 6 3.3

Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners .. 3 14 4.5

Waiters and waitresses ........................................................................ 4 19 10.5

General managers and top executives ................................................ 5 8 .9

Office clerks, general ........................................................................... 6 3 6.8

Secretaries, except legal and medical ................................................. 7 262 15.6

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants ............................................. 8 31 12.1

Truckdrivers, light and heavy ............................................................... 9 4 9.9

Receptionists and information clerks ................................................... 10 7 15.0

Cashiers ................................................................................................ 11 1 20.5

Guards .................................................................................................. 12 24 .6

Computer programmers ......................................................................... 13 29 5.1

Food counter, fountain, and related workers ....................................... 14 11 11.5

Food preparation workers ..................................................................... 15 20 3.8

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses ............................ 16 56 20.0

Teachers, secondary school ................................................................ 17 18 7.8

Systems analysts ................................................................................. 18 23 5.5

Accountants and auditors .................................................................... 19 45 7.9

Personal care and home health aides .................................................. 20 12 30.1

 Occupations with the largest job declines

Farmworkers ........................................................................................... 1 6 .4

Electrical and electronic assemblers .................................................... 2 144 45.8

Sewing machine operators, garment ..................................................... 3 2 79.2

Hand packers and packagers ............................................................... 4 329 45.1

Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, precision ................. 5 238 53.9

Word processors and typists ................................................................ 6 1 91.7

Inspectors, testers, and graders, precision ......................................... 7 176 8.6

Court reporters, medical transcriptionists, and stenographers ............ 8 16 17.7

Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders .......................... 9 292 34.1

Machine feeders and offbearers ........................................................... 10 22 2.0

Textile drawout and winding machine operators and tenders ............... 11 15 14.3

Child care workers, private household .................................................. 12 8 34.9

Telephone and cable TV line installers and repairers ........................... 13 283 51.6

Data entry keyers .................................................................................. 14 182 9.4

Industrial truck and tractor operators ................................................... 15 159 7.6

Crushing, grinding, mixing, and blending machine operators

and tenders .......................................................................................... 16 161 21.4

Machine-forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic .................. 17 52 2.0

Welders and cutters .............................................................................. 18 251 16.7

Central office and PBX installers and repairers .................................... 19 32 19.7

Machine tool cutting operators and tenders, metal and plastic ........... 20 18 23.1

 1 Occupation that was projected to grow, but actually declined. 2

 Occupation that was projected to decline, but actually grew.

1

1

1

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

2

 Occupation

2

2

2

2
34 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

the projections are based. (This kind of change, in which some

occupations may have suboccupations added to or removed

from them, is to be contrasted with a definitional change in an

occupation. As mentioned earlier, occupations that had

definitional changes were excluded from the analysis.) New

occupations were added after the projections were made in

1988. This is one reason for the sharp decline in employment

among electrical and electronic engineers. In 1988, computer

engineers were classified as electrical and electronic engineers. Beginning in 1989, however, computer engineering

was surveyed as a separate occupation, shifting employment

away from electrical and electronic engineers.

Occupations with the largest job growth. Like the fastestgrowing occupations, occupations with the largest job growth

offer insight into those occupations which will have the

greatest impact on the labor market. Occupations with the

largest job growth often have slower growth in percentage

terms, but a much larger number of workers, than those ranked

among the fastest growing. As a result, the former occupations

usually create more job openings. However, some occupations are among both the fastest-growing occupations and

the occupations with the largest job growth. Three occupations examined in this analysis were in both categories:

personal care and home health aides; shipping, receiving, and

traffic clerks; and teacher assistants.

The projections for the 20 occupations with the largest job

growth were relatively accurate, reflecting the fact that

projection error is inversely related to employment size. (See

table 9.)14 Thirteen occupations with the largest projected job

growth were among the top 20 with the largest actual job

growth. The 13 occupations accounted for a combined 7.1

million jobs and 94 percent of net job growth. The average

absolute percent error of the group was only 9.2 percent, well

below the 24.5-percent average for all occupations.

Most of the occupations with the largest projected and

largest actual job growth were in service industries—in

particular, health, education, and food services. A growing

elderly population with an increasing need for medical care is

one factor driving growth among the different nursing occupations and personal care and home health aides. Also, increasing health care costs are channeling certain tasks into

the hands of lower skilled health-care workers instead of

physicians. As regards education services, rapidly increasing

school enrollments are the major factor driving the demand

for secondary school teachers and teacher assistants. Finally,

a growing population with increasing income and more leisure

time is one source of growth among workers in the food

services industry, such as waiters and waitresses; food counter, fountain, and related workers; and food preparation workers. Strong economic growth and a growing population with

higher incomes are also sources of growth for occupations in

the retail trade sector. Employed mainly in retail trade, cashiers

added the most new jobs between 1988 and 2000, almost 1

million. Combined with retail salespersons, cashiers added

almost 1.4 million new jobs to the economy.

In one instance, an occupation projected to be among

those adding the most jobs actually declined over the

projection period. Secretaries, except legal and medical, were

projected to add 385,000 new jobs, but employment actually

declined by 59,000 jobs. In fact, secretaries ended up among

the 20 occupations with the largest job losses, due mainly to

increases in office technology that made those in the occupation more productive. As they became more productive,

secretaries increasingly worked for more than one manager.

Managers themselves also increasingly performed routine

office work, such as word processing and filing, further

reducing the need for secretaries.

Occupations with the largest job declines. Declining occupational employment stems from declining industry

employment or factors such as technological advancements

and changes in business practices. The average projected

numerical decline for the 20 occupations with the largest

losses was 58,000 jobs. The average actual numerical decline

was 130,000 jobs. The accuracy among the occupations in

this group was not as high as among those with the largest

job growth: only 7 occupations that were projected to be

among the occupations with the largest job declines actually

were. (See table 9.)

Technological advancements were the major reason for

both projected and actual declines in employment. New laborsaving machinery, for example, was a factor in the decline in

textile jobs such as sewing machine operators and textile drawout and winding machine operators and tenders. The

employment of office support workers, such as word processors and typists, and court reporters, medical transcriptionists, and stenographers was curtailed by new office

technology, including e-mail and voice mail. Other factors,

such as growing domestic and international competition and

corporate restructuring, also dampened the level of employment in these occupations.

Among the 20 occupations with the largest projected

employment declines, half actually grew over the projection

period. The largest numerical difference between projected

and actual employment levels was for hand packers and

packagers. As regards many of the other occupations

projected to decline, the effects of automation and other laborsaving technology appear to have been overestimated.

Conclusions and implications

Overall, the employment projections for the year 2000 were

slightly more accurate than the earlier ones for 1995: employment for six of the nine major occupational groups was

projected with greater accuracy for 2000. However, projections
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 35

on such an aggregate scale are, by their nature, uncertain.

Because projections are made for individual occupations, and

not major groups, errors are compounded as these occupations are combined. The detailed occupations that make up

each group can be large enough that any error in their individual projection can affect the outcome for the group

overall.

Compared with errors from past evaluations, the average

absolute percent error for the 2000 occupational employment

projections was not significantly different. The mean absolute

percent error for the 2000 projections, 23.2 percent, was close

to the mean absolute percent error of 24.0 percent for the 1995

projections and only slightly higher than the errors found in

previous sets of projections.15 However, the two most recent

evaluations covered many more occupations than did the

earlier ones.

The two matrices prepared for the simulations carried out in

the current and previous evaluations have been analyzed and

the major source of error for many detailed occupations

identified. As the previous evaluation found, good industry

projections are crucial to developing good occupational

projections, but the chief source of errors appears to be the

projected staffing patterns. In the matrix for which projected

staffing patterns were applied to actual 2000 industry totals, the

mean absolute percent error was 22.6 percent; in the matrix for

which actual staffing patterns were applied to projected 2000

industry totals, the mean absolute error dropped to 9.3 percent.

Historically, all BLS evaluations of its occupational employment projections have yielded the result that the projections are conservative. The 1988–2000 projections are no

exception: most of the projections were clustered around

average growth, even when more occupations grew much

faster than the average or declined. The inherent conservatism

contributed to overall errors in staffing patterns, in part

because analysts were conservative in projecting occupational coefficients or changes in the proportion of an occupation within each industry.

In projecting occupational patterns from 1988 to 2000,

analysts reviewed historical employment data and conducted

analyses to identify factors underlying trends. The evaluation

of the 1988–2000 projections has provided analysts the first

chance to look back at this work. Because an industryoccupation matrix was used to project employment by

occupation, analysts projected changes to the occupationindustry cells on the basis of knowledge gained through

research performed in preparing the Occupational Outlook

Handbook. Judgments were made as to whether factors

causing changes in occupational utilization within industries

would have less, more, or the same effect in the future. The

analysis also uncovered factors expected to affect the

utilization of workers that did not affect them in the past.

Analytical judgments were then translated into numerical

estimates—increases or decreases in the coefficients of the

industry-occupation matrix from 1988 to 2000. To maintain

consistency among the judgments of analysts projecting

occupational change, the following guidelines for describing

changes were implemented to develop projected coefficients

for all occupations across all industries:16 changes of 5 percent

to 9 percent are described as small, those from 10 percent to

19 percent are considered moderate, and those of 20 or more

percent are said to be significant.

Biases towards conservatism are recognized by the Bureau;

thus, the guidelines for projecting the changes in the occupational coefficients have been revised. For example,

beginning in the early 1990s, the Bureau set forth new guidelines

for interpreting the projected ranges for identifying small,

moderate, and large changes in the occupational coefficients:

according to these guidelines, any positive change up to 10

percent is considered small, a change from 10 percent to 20

percent is deemed moderate, one from 20 percent to 35 percent is

held to be large, and a change of 50 percent or more is judged

very large. The revised guidelines have allowed analysts to

describe changes in the occupational coefficients more

accurately, which should result in more accurate projections.

The influence of conservative coefficients of change on

the projections, however, was not the only source of error.

Rather, the impact of many technological changes and trends

were not fully realized and therefore also contributed to errors

in the projected staffing patterns. Incorrect analytical judgments relating to the impact of technological change and to

trends such as outsourcing and the growing role of temporaryhelp firms played a large part in this regard. Furthermore, some

events, such as the timing of business cycles, the onset of

international conflicts, and the occurrence of natural disasters,

are difficult to predict and ultimately have a substantial impact

on the accuracy of the projections. 

Notes

1

 Another measure used to evaluate the projections included comparing the actual distribution of employment growth among occupations with the projected distribution. To evaluate how the errors

attributed to detailed occupations affected the errors associated with

their respective major groups, each detailed occupation’s error was

weighted by its employment size in 1988. (Each occupation’s contribution to the error for a particular major group is presented in the

analysis of the projections for the major occupational groups. The

contribution was calculated by first dividing an occupation’s projected

employment by its actual employment in the target year. The result

of the calculation was then multiplied by the ratio of the occupation’s

actual employment to the total actual employment for the major

group, and this resulting value was then divided by the sum of the

errors for all occupations to determine each occupation’s share of the
36 Monthly Labor Review October 2003

Projections Evaluation

APPENDIX: Technical Note

Framework of the projections. The 1988–2000 occupational

employment projections were developed within the framework

of an industry-occupation matrix containing 258 industries and

491 occupations. Data used for the 1988 matrix and the projected

2000 matrix came from a variety of sources. For industries covered

by the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) survey, the most

current survey data were utilized to develop the occupational

distribution or staffing patterns used to estimate 1988 wage and

salary employment. Employment by occupation in each industry

was derived by multiplying the occupational distribution of

employment by 1988 wage and salary worker employment for

each industry; data for each of these categories were obtained

error as a percentage.) A comparison of the projected and actual growth

in terms of descriptors of the detailed occupations also is presented as

a method of evaluation.

2 This underprojection was really the result of changes in the

occupational classification over time. In 1988, the only computerrelated occupation for which a projection was developed was systems

analysts. The projection turned out to be close to the mark. However,

between 1989 and 1998, three more computer-related occupations,

including the residual category of “all other computer scientists,” were

added alongside systems analysts. In 2000, these three occupations

accounted for an additional 1 million workers.

3

 Over the 1988–2000 period, the OES definition of the detailed

occupation category of landscaping and groundskeeping laborers was

modified. The change caused workers in agriculture, forestry, fishing,

and related occupations to be shuffled among detailed occupations

within the major group. Therefore, more types of workers were

classified as landscaping and groundskeeping laborers in 2000 than in

1988, which caused employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and

related occupations to be underprojected.

4

 For an explanation of occupations that were eliminated from the

analysis, see the technical note at the end of this article.

5

 Weighted by actual 2000 employment, the mean absolute percent

error was 4.43 percent.

6

 Occupations with projected and actual growth between –3 percent

and 3 percent were categorized as having little or no change. Those

occupations whose projected and actual growth fell into this category

were counted as having employment projected in the correct direction,

even if the projected and actual employment figures were in different

directions.

7

 See the technical note at the end of the for an explanation of why

1998 staffing patterns were used instead of the actual 2000 Standard

Occupational Classification (SOC)-based patterns.

8

 See Valerie Personick, “Industry output and employment: a slower

trend for the nineties,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1989, pp.

25–41, for the original population projections. Updated population

figures are given on the National Population Estimates page on the

U.S. Census Bureau’s website, http://www.census.gov/population/

www/estimates/uspop.html.

9

 For additional information regarding the evaluation of material in

the 1990–91 Occupational Outlook Handbook, see “The 1988–2000

Employment Projections: How Accurate Were They?” Occupational

Outlook Quarterly, spring 2003.

10 More information on these growth adjectives is available in the

section titled “Key to understanding what’s in the Handbook,” in the

Occupational Outlook Handbook, Bulletin 2350 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, 1990–91).

11 The list of the 20 fastest-growing occupations was originally

published in table 5 in the November 1989 Monthly Labor Review.

Because of changes in the 2000 SOC system, some of the occupational

titles now differ from the original 1988 titles. For example, human

services workers are now called social and human service assistants.

12 Assumptions regarding the growth of radiologic technologists

and technicians were published in Occupational Projections and

Training Data, Bulletin 2351 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1990) and in

the “Job Outlook” sections of the respective occupations in the 1990–

91 Occupational Outlook Handbook.

13 Current growth assumptions were analyzed in Occupational

Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2542 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, 2002–03) and in the “Job Outlook“ sections of the

Occupational Outlook Handbook, Bulletin 2540 (Bureau of Labor

Statistics, 2002–03).

14 A table listing the 20 occupations with the largest job growth was

originally published in the November 1989 Monthly Labor Review.

Because of modifications to the SOC, one of the occupational titles

changed from its original 1988 title: licensed practical nurses are now

called licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses. Also stemming

from the modifications to the SOC, the two occupations of order fillers,

wholesale and retail sales; and stock clerks, stockroom, warehouse, or

storage yard were combined into the sole occupation titled “stock

clerks and order fillers.” The combined occupation ranks among both

those with the largest projected growth and those with the largest

actual growth, but was not in the Review table. Because the original

occupations were not combined when the projections were made, they

are not included in the table.

15 See Neal H. Rosenthal, “The quality of BLS projections: a historical

account,” Monthly Labor Review, May 1999, pp. 27–35.

16 See Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2351

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1990).

from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey. Both

the CES survey and the OES survey are surveys of business

establishments, covering only wage and salary workers. Data

from the 1988 Current Population Survey (CPS) were used to

develop the occupational distribution patterns for workers in

agriculture, fishing, hunting, and trapping, and for private

households, as well as to develop economywide estimates of

self-employed and unpaid family workers by occupation.

Occupational distribution patterns for the Federal Government were developed by the Office of Personnel

Management. Data from the National Center for Education

Statistics were used for teachers.
Monthly Labor Review October 2003 37

Standard Industry Classification is replaced with the 2002

North American Industry Classification System as the new

industry structure of the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

As a result, new evaluation methods will be necessary to

circumvent these problems.

Occupations eliminated from the evaluation. Only 338 of

the 500 occupations for which projections were made from

1988 to 2000 were evaluated. Occupations were eliminated

from the evaluation primarily for three reasons. First, all

residual occupations, such as “all other managers,” were

dropped. Second, occupations whose definitions were not

consistent between 1988 and 1998 due to changes in the

occupational or industrial classification system were eliminated. Third, the list of occupations was confined to those

employing more than 25,000 workers in 1988, because only

those occupations were published in the original employment

projections article that appeared in the November 1989

Monthly Labor Review.

1

Other data errors. The discussion in the text of the article, as

well as in this technical note, has focused on errors in individual

projections that can be traced to incorrectly forecasted changes

in staffing patterns or incorrect industry projections. Also,

comparability problems stemming from inconsistencies in the

occupational classification system over time were highlighted. It

is important to bear in mind, however, that other data problems

exist and that differences in actual and projected employment

levels are not always due to projection errors. Consequently, real

employment trends in an occupation may not necessarily be

measured by comparable surveys 10 years apart.2

 Moreover,

although survey data are generally considered reliable, sampling

and response errors certainly had an impact on the data in both

the initial and the terminal years of the projection period

evaluated.

In order to evaluate projections, the occupational employment data from the base year and the actual data from the

target year must be comparable. The 1980 Standard Occupational Classification System (SOC) underwent a major

revision in the year 2000. The titles and content of the major

occupational groups and many detailed occupations in the

2000 SOC are now substantially different than they were in the

previous version. Some major groups were renamed, combined, or reorganized. Some individual occupations were renamed or reclassified into different major groups. Many new

occupations were added. Some were aggregated and some

were split into more detail. Because of these changes, the occupations and major groups reflected in the 2000–10 national

employment matrix are not comparable to those reflected in

the 1988–2000 matrix.

Owing to the revisions to the SOC, the incomparability

across occupations and major groups between 1988 and 2000

had to be addressed. A new industry-occupation matrix was

created to get around the comparability problems. Actual

employment data for 2000 were re-created for the purposes of

the evaluation presented in the text by applying 1998 staffing

patterns to the 2000 industry totals. Unlike the occupational

structure, the industry structure had not changed between

1988 and 2000. Accordingly, the original 1988 and projected

2000 employment data published in 1989 were reconfigured to

the 1998 occupational structure. Therefore, some of the

occupational titles are not exactly the same as those published

in the November 1989 Monthly Labor Review article. This

incommensurability created by definitional changes limited

the number of previous occupational employment projections

that could be evaluated.

Because the 2000 SOC will be used until its next revision in

2010, the evaluations of projections made for 2005 and 2006

also will face the same type of comparability problems. In

addition, comparability problems will be created when the 1987

Notes to the appendix

1

 See George Silvestri and John Lukasiewicz, “Projections of

occupational employment, 1988–2000,” Monthly Labor Review,

November 1989, pp. 42–65.

2 For four decades, the Bureau of Labor Statistics developed

projections in which the target year always ended in a zero or a five.

Projections were prepared every other year, resulting in two, and

sometimes three, sets of projections being prepared for the same target

year. As a consequence, the projection horizon could be as short as 10

years or as long as 15 years. Beginning with the 1996–2006 projections

presented in the November 1997 Monthly Labor Review, projections

have been developed for a 10-year period only.