Monthly Labor Review February 2001 3

The Job Market in 2000

The job market in 2000:

slowing down as the year ended

As the unemployment rate edged down to a 31-year low,

the job market entered an unprecedented 10th year

of expansion, though job growth slowed a bit

in the second half of the year

Jennifer L. Martel

and

David S. Langdon

Jennifer L. Martel is an

economist in the Division of

Labor Force Statistics and

David S. Langdon is an

economist in the Division of

Monthly Industry Employment Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

The Nation’s current economic expansion entered its 10th year in 2000, becoming the longest expansionary period on record. However, by the end of the

year, signs emerged that the rate of expansion

was slowing.

In the first half of the year, the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates as part

of a policy designed to slow the economy

and keep inflation in check.1 The Federal Reserve aimed to bring the economy in for a

“soft landing.” Real gross domestic product

(GDP) was relatively strong during the first

half of the year, growing at an annual rate of

4.8 percent in the first quarter and 5.6 percent

in the second quarter. By the third quarter,

however, the rate of growth slowed to 2.2 percent.2 The deceleration in real GDP primarily

reflected downturns in inventory investment

and in Federal Government spending, and a

deceleration in nonresidential fixed investment.3

Nonfarm payroll employment continued to

grow in 2000, at an average over-the-year rate

of 2.3 percent in first half of the year, 2.0 percent in the third quarter, and 1.6 percent in the

fourth quarter. Most of the job growth in 2000

occurred in the service-producing industries.

Mining employment also increased, in response to rising oil prices. Employment in construction slowed over the year, affected by the

rise in interest rates. Manufacturing employment fell overall, although some industries related to information technology saw their payrolls increase. (See table 1.)

The unemployment rate was 4.0 percent in

the fourth quarter of 2000, the lowest rate since

1969, and the proportion of the population that

was employed remained at record-high levels.

Workers in most major demographic groups

benefited from the relatively healthy labor market in 2000, and the year was especially strong

for minorities. Blacks and Hispanics both

closed slightly their unemployment rate gap

between whites, and blacks closed slightly their

earnings gap between whites in 2000.

This article provides snapshots of several important developments or issues related to the

U.S. economy and labor market in 2000. The primary sources of data are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the Current Population Survey (CPS).4 Both of these surveys are

conducted monthly (See box on page 4.); however, quarterly averages are used in this analysis

unless otherwise noted, and over-the-year

changes are based on comparisons of fourth

quarter 1999 and 2000 data, unless otherwise

noted.
4 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Conceptual differences between employment estimates

from the Current Population Survey (household survey)

and the Current Employment Statistics Survey (establishment survey)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains two monthly

data series on employment that are independently obtained:

the estimate of total nonfarm jobs, derived from the Current

Employment Statistics (CES) survey and the estimate of total

employment, derived from the Current Population Survey

(CPS).

The CES survey is an employer-based survey that provides data on the number of jobs within industries. The CPS

is a survey of households that provides data on the labor

force status (employed, unemployed, and not in the labor

force) of individuals, and includes information on their demographic as well as socioeconomic characteristics. The

surveys are largely complementary.

Employment estimates from the CPS are for persons in any

type of work arrangement: wage and salary workers, self-employed persons, and unpaid workers in family businesses. To

be considered employed, an unpaid family worker must have

worked 15 hours or more in an enterprise operated by a member

of the family. Estimates from the CES survey refer only to persons on nonfarm payrolls. As a result, the count of employment from the CPS is larger than from the CES survey.

are counted only once, regardless of the number of jobs

they hold. In contrast, the establishment survey is a count

of jobs and includes each job for persons who work in more

than one establishment.

There are other differences in the surveys’ methodology

and coverage. For example, the reference period for the CPS

is the week that includes the 12th day of the month, while,

for the CES survey, it is the pay period that includes the 12th

of the month. Pay periods vary in length and can be longer

than 1 week. It is therefore possible for the CES survey

estimate of employment to reflect a longer reference period

than that used for the CPS.

The “universe” for the CPS is the civilian noninstitutional

population. This includes persons 16 years of age and older

residing in the United States who are not inmates of institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities, homes for the

aged), and who are not on active duty in the Armed Forces.

In this regard, the coverage of the CES survey is broader:

there is no age restriction in the CES, uniformed military personnel who hold civilian jobs are covered because of their

civilian employment, and persons who commute into the

United States from Mexico or Canada to work are counted

as employed.

The price of oil, which had soared in 1999 and continued its

ascent in 2000, did not seem to have a dramatic effect on indus- ascent in 2000, did not seem to have a dramatic effect on industry employment trends in 2000. try employment trends in 2000.5 Crude petroleum prices spent

much of the year above $30 per barrel, or more than 2.5 times

their 1998 level and nearly 2 times higher than 1999’s level.

Their rise benefited some industries while hurting others.

Tracing job growth or losses to a rise in energy prices is

problematic in many industries, but it is relatively straightforward for mining. After falling by 44,000 in 1999, mining employment recovered partially last year.6 Its improvement came

solely from hiring in oil and gas extraction, which brought on

21,000 workers, as rising oil prices spurred increased activity

in this industry. The hiring halted in mid-summer, when crude

petroleum prices stabilized somewhat, only to pick up again in

autumn as oil prices rose.7 Even with the recovery in oil prices,

however, other factors worked to temper job gains in oil and

gas extraction. For example, merger activity in 1998–99 resulted in more streamlined operations requiring fewer workers.8 In addition, many oil and gas companies considered the

high price of crude petroleum to be a temporary development;

consequently, they were wary to invest in projects that would

become unprofitable if prices fell again.9 So, although the

price of crude oil spent much of the year at the highest levels

since the Gulf War, production and employment, while improving, did not fully recover from their 1998–99 decline. (See chart 1.)

That situation contrasted sharply with petroleum refining, in which production reached a record pace—while its

employment slipped to its lowest level on record (this employment series begins in 1947).10 Output per employee rose

nearly 38 percent between 1991 and 1997, while employment

fell by 20 percent from a peak of 123,000 jobs. Refineries cut

another 11,000 positions between 1997 and 1999, but trimmed

payrolls by only 2,000 last year, possibly supported by the

high price of oil.

Tracing the effects of the energy price hikes outside the

petroleum industry is less straightforward. Despite the surge

in energy prices, the overall effect on prices paid by producers

and consumers was minimal. Growth in the Consumer Price

Index for All Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)

accelerated slightly, to 3.4 percent (December 1999 to December 2000), and growth in average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers in the private economy notched

up to 4.2 percent for the same period. Nevertheless, relatively

flat real earnings and a 14-percent surge in gas prices did not

Partially offsetting the higher estimates from the CPS is

the fact that the CPS is a count of persons, and individuals
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 5

Table 1. Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–2000

[Numbers in thousands]

 Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Total nonfarm ................................. 115,598 129,783 131,863 2,816 2.2 2,837 2.3 2,080 1.6

Total private ................................... 96,379 109,507 111,415 2,491 2.3 2,626 2.6 1,908 1.7

Goods-producing ......................... 24,163 25,524 25,624 55 .2 272 1.1 100 .4

Mining ........................................ 596 529 540 –44 –7.7 –13 –2.4 11 2.1

Metal mining ............................. 49 45 44 –2 –4.3 –1 –1.7 –1 –2.2

Oil and gas extraction ............. 332 289 310 –35 –10.8 –9 –2.7 21 7.3

Nonmetallic minerals,

except fuels ............................. 105 112 108 0 .0 1 1.3 –4 –3.6

Construction .............................. 5,089 6,513 6,736 334 5.4 285 5.1 223 3.4

General building contractors .... 1,210 1,469 1,522 61 4.3 52 4.0 53 3.6

Heavy construction,

except building ....................... 746 877 882 18 2.1 26 3.3 5 .6

Special trade contractors ........ 3,132 4,167 4,332 254 6.5 207 5.9 165 4.0

Manufacturing ............................ 18,478 18,482 18,347 –234 –1.3 1 .0 –135 –.7

Durable goods .......................... 10,583 11,085 11,047 –90 –.8 100 .9 –38 –.3

Lumber and wood products .... 768 831 808 11 1.3 13 1.6 –23 –2.8

Furniture and fixtures ............ 513 553 553 15 2.8 8 1.5 0 .0

Stone, clay, and glass

products ............................... 537 564 562 0 .0 5 1.0 –2 –.4

Primary metal industries ........ 709 698 687 –10 –1.4 –2 –.3 –11 –1.6

Fabricated metal products ..... 1,415 1,520 1,532 7 0.5 21 1.4 12 .8

Industrial machinery

 and equipment .................... 2,015 2,131 2,126 –52 –2.4 23 1.1 –5 –.2

Computer and office

equipment .......................... 350 370 362 –8 –2.1 4 1.1 –8 –2.2

Electronic and other

electrical equipment ............. 1,594 1,672 1,724 –10 –.6 16 1.0 52 3.1

Electronic components

and accessories .............. 556 639 693 –4 –.6 17 2.8 54 8.5

Transportation equipment ....... 1,789 1,870 1,811 –38 –2.0 16 .9 –59 –3.2

Motor vehicles

and equipment ................... 947 1,022 988 13 1.3 15 1.5 –34 –3.3

Aircraft and parts ................. 469 474 456 –50 –9.5 1 .2 –18 –3.8

Instruments and related

products ............................... 850 849 850 –17 –2.0 0 .0 1 .1

Miscellaneous manufacturing

industries ............................. 393 398 394 7 1.8 1 .3 –4 –1.0

......................................................

Nondurable goods .................... 7,895 7,397 7,300 –145 –1.9 –100 –1.3 –97 –1.3

Food and kindred products .... 1,679 1,674 1,669 –8 –.5 –1 –.1 –5 –.3

Tobacco products .................. 42 38 37 –2 –5.0 –1 –2.0 –1 –2.6

Textile mill products ............... 681 550 530 –34 –5.8 –26 –4.2 –20 –3.6

Apparel and other textile

products ............................... 976 672 628 –64 –8.7 –61 –7.2 –44 –6.5

Paper and allied products ...... 695 665 657 –8 –1.2 –6 –.9 –8 –1.2

Printing and publishing ........... 1,543 1,549 1,558 –14 –.9 1 .1 9 .6

Chemicals and allied products 1,046 1,031 1,024 –11 –1.1 –3 –.3 –7 –.7

Petroleum and coal products . 150 132 129 -5 –3.6 –4 –2.5 –3 –2.3

Rubber and miscellaneous

plastics products ................. 973 1,009 996 7 .7 7 .7 –13 –1.3

Leather and leather products . 111 76 72 –6 –7.3 –7 –7.3 –4 –5.3

Service-producing ........................ 91,435 104,259 106,240 2,761 2.7 2,565 2.7 1,981 1.9

Transportation and public

utilities ..................................... 6,059 6,895 7,063 198 3.0 167 2.6 168 2.4

Transportation ........................ 3,829 4,451 4,565 119 2.7 124 3.1 114 2.6

Railroad transportation ......... 241 226 220 –5 –2.2 –3 –1.3 –6 –2.7

Local and interurban

passenger transit .............. 409 490 499 14 2.9 16 3.7 9 1.8

Trucking and warehousing ... 1,558 1,820 1,845 51 2.9 52 3.2 25 1.4

Water transportation ........... 173 191 205 5 2.7 4 2.0 14 7.3

Transportation by air ........... 1,043 1,247 1,308 50 4.2 41 3.6 61 4.9

See footnote at end of table.

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent Percent Thousands

1998 to 1999 Average, 1995 to 1999 1999 to 2000 Industry Fourth

quarter

1994

Fourth

quarter

2000

Fourth

quarter

1999
6 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Pipelines, except natural gas ... 16 13 12 –1 –7.1 –1 –4.1 –1 –7.7

Transportation services ............ 388 465 476 6 1.3 15 3.7 11 2.4

Communications and public

utilities ...................................... 2,230 2,444 2,498 79 3.3 43 1.8 54 2.2

Communications ..................... 1,306 1,580 1,645 79 5.3 55 3.9 65 4.1

Electric, gas, and sanitary

services ................................ 924 863 853 –1 –.1 –12 –1.4 –10 –1.2

Wholesale trade ............................ 6,261 6,988 7,091 153 2.2 145 2.2 103 1.5

Durable goods .......................... 3,625 4,164 4,207 92 2.3 108 2.8 43 1.0

Nondurable goods ..................... 2,636 2,824 2,884 62 2.2 38 1.4 60 2.1

Retail trade ................................... 20,827 22,897 23,220 434 1.9 414 1.9 323 1.4

Building materials and garden

supplies .................................... 855 1,008 1,020 46 4.8 31 3.3 12 1.2

General merchandise stores ...... 2,650 2,757 2,752 –2 –.1 21 .8 –5 –.2

Department stores ..................... 2,314 2,410 2,405 –25 –1.0 19 .8 –5 –.2

Food stores ................................ 3,310 3,498 3,521 7 .2 38 1.1 23 .7

Automotive dealers and service

stations ..................................... 2,151 2,381 2,430 36 1.5 46 2.1 49 2.1

New and used car dealers .......... 981 1,092 1,121 38 3.6 22 2.2 29 2.7

Apparel and accessory stores ... 1,147 1,186 1,208 46 4.0 8 .7 22 1.9

Furniture and home

furnishings stores ..................... 921 1,094 1,129 51 4.9 35 3.5 35 3.2

Eating and drinking places ......... 7,173 7,967 8,096 131 1.7 159 2.1 129 1.6

Miscellaneous retail

establishments ......................... 2,620 3,006 3,065 118 4.1 77 2.8 59 2.0

Finance, insurance,

and real estate ........................... 6,851 7,605 7,649 125 1.7 151 2.1 44 .6

Finance ....................................... 3,265 3,707 3,742 64 1.8 88 2.6 35 .9

Depository institutions .............. 2,051 2,061 2,035 8 .4 2 .1 –26 –1.3

Commercial banks ................... 1,479 1,473 1,446 –1 –.1 –1 –.1 –27 –1.8

Savings institutions ................ 292 249 237 –5 –2.0 –9 –3.1 –12 –4.8

Nondepository institutions ........ 468 705 690 13 1.9 47 8.5 –15 –2.1

Security and commodity

brokers .................................... 522 708 768 45 6.8 37 6.3 60 8.5

Holding and other

investment offices .................. 224 233 249 –2 –.9 2 .8 16 6.9

Insurance ................................... 2,230 2,377 2,360 22 .9 29 1.3 –17 –.7

Insurance carriers .................... 1,542 1,610 1,585 5 .3 14 .9 –25 –1.6

Insurance agents, brokers,

and service ............................. 687 767 775 17 2.3 16 2.2 8 1.0

Real estate ................................. 1,357 1,521 1,547 40 2.7 33 2.3 26 1.7

Services ..................................... 32,218 39,598 40,768 1,525 4.0 1,476 4.2 1,170 3.0

Agricultural services ................. 576 779 808 47 6.4 41 6.2 29 3.7

Hotels and other lodging

places ..................................... 1,639 1,866 1,934 56 3.1 45 2.6 68 3.6

Personal services ..................... 1,146 1,252 1,287 40 3.3 21 1.8 35 2.8

Business services .................... 6,532 9,502 9,815 660 7.5 594 7.8 313 3.3

Services to buildings .............. 872 997 1,005 37 3.9 25 2.7 8 .8

Personnel supply services ..... 2,397 3,731 3,830 364 10.8 267 9.3 99 2.7

Help supply services ............ 2,129 3,343 3,407 330 11.0 243 9.4 64 1.9

Computer and data

processing services ............ 1,000 1,881 1,979 172 10.1 176 13.5 98 5.2

Auto repair, services,

and parking ............................. 989 1,191 1,209 30 2.6 40 3.8 18 1.5

Miscellaneous repair

 services ................................. 346 380 385 4 1.1 7 1.9 5 1.3

Motion pictures ......................... 456 624 633 43 7.4 34 6.5 9 1.4

Amusement and recreation

services .................................. 1,354 1,698 1,794 74 4.6 69 4.6 96 5.7

See footnote at end of table.

Table 1. Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–2000

[Numbers in thousands]

 Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

1998 to 1999 Average, 1995 to 1999 1999 to 2000

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent Thousands Percent

Industry Fourth

quarter

1994

Fourth

quarter

1999

Fourth

quarter

2000

1

1
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 7

Health services ......................... 9,079 10,040 10,209 133 1.3 192 2.0 169 1.7

Offices and clinics of medical

doctors ..................................... 1,567 1,898 1,953 63 3.4 66 3.9 55 2.9

Nursing and personal care

 facilities ..................................... 1,664 1,786 1,794 8 .4 24 1.4 8 .4

Hospitals ..................................... 3,760 3,994 4,044 35 .9 47 1.2 50 1.3

Home health care services ......... 588 637 644 -5 –.8 10 1.6 7 1.1

.........................................................

Legal services .............................. 924 1,005 1,015 21 2.1 16 1.7 10 1.0

Private schools and other

educational services ................... 1,906 2,304 2,372 88 4.0 80 3.9 68 3.0

Social services ............................. 2,265 2,866 3,035 166 6.1 120 4.8 169 5.9

Child day care services .............. 541 719 788 70 10.8 36 5.9 69 9.6

Residential care .......................... 621 795 840 42 5.6 35 5.1 45 5.7

Museums and botanical

and zoological gardens ............... 79 99 104 4 4.2 4 4.6 5 5.1

Membership organizations ............ 2,112 2,434 2,450 34 1.4 64 2.9 16 .7

Engineering and management

services .................................... 2,633 3,312 3,474 138 4.3 136 4.7 162 4.9

Engineering and architectural

services .................................... 794 969 1,019 44 4.8 35 4.1 50 5.2

Management and public

relations .................................... 743 1,060 1,134 51 5.1 63 7.4 74 7.0

Government .................................... 19,219 20,276 20,448 325 1.6 211 1.1 172 .8

Federal .......................................... 2,854 2,646 2,615 –65 –2.4 –42 –1.5 –31 –1.2

Federal, except Postal

Service ........................................ 2,024 1,780 1,761 –52 –2.8 -49 –2.5 -19 –1.1

State government ......................... 4,624 4,724 4,759 83 1.8 20 .4 35 .7

State government,

except education ...................... 2,717 2,743 2,771 40 1.5 5 .2 28 1.0

State government education ....... 1,907 1,981 1,989 43 2.2 15 .8 8 .4

Local government ......................... 11,741 12,905 13,073 306 2.4 233 1.9 168 1.3

Local government, except

 education ................................... 5,220 5,581 5,686 117 2.1 72 1.3 105 1.9

Local government education ....... 6,521 7,325 7,387 190 2.7 161 2.4 62 .8

1

Includes other industries not shown separately.

Table 1. Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1994–2000

[Numbers in thousands]

1998 to 1999 1999 to 2000

Thousands Thousands

Average, 1995 to 1999

Percent Thousands Percent Percent

1

1

Fourth

quarter

1994

Fourth

quarter

1999

Fourth

quarter

2000

 Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Industry

keep consumers away from new cars and light trucks.11 Americans beat 1999’s sales record by purchasing 17.4 million vehicles.12 Moreover, consumers’ appetite for less fuel-efficient

trucks and sport utility vehicles (SUVs) did not seem to be

affected at all. For the 2000 model year, sales of pickup trucks

remained very high, and for the first time ever, SUVs beat pickup

trucks in sales.13

Employment in motor vehicles and equipment manufacturing reflected that intensity during the first half of the year, but

it plummeted in summer. Overall, motor vehicle manufacturers

reduced their payrolls by 34,000 jobs last year. Part of the decline reflected the expanding competition from import cars and,

especially, light trucks. Domestic manufacturers resorted to

hefty incentives to move certain poor-selling, year-2000 models; indeed, the CPI for new cars and trucks was about unchanged over the year. Although those programs “moved the

metal,” they also dragged down profits, which led some companies to curtail production and employment. Yet, the real

drag on motor vehicle employment came not from cars and

light trucks, but rather from the heavyweights of the motor

vehicle industry—heavy trucks and motor homes.

While rising fuel prices did not appear to adversely affect

consumers’ demand for light trucks, rising diesel prices did have

a wide range of effects on the trucking industry. Intense competition among trucking companies made it difficult for firms, especially the smallest ones, to pass on the climbing fuel costs to their

customers in the form of fuel surcharges. Indeed, the Producer

Price Index (PPI) for motor freight transportation and warehousing increased by only 4.9 percent over the year, versus the 23.8-

percent jump in retail on-highway diesel prices. At the same

time, interest rates, insurance payments, and the cost of recruiting long-haul drivers also pushed costs upwards, while a decline

in truck tonnage cut into revenues.14 Together, these factors

dramatically slowed, but did not stop, hiring in trucking and

warehousing. (See chart 2.) The industry added 25,000 workers

last year, its weakest hiring level since 1992.

1
8 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Not only did trucking firms cut back on hiring, but they also

dramatically reduced their orders for new rigs. These cutbacks

came on the heels of 2 years of record sales, but the increasing

costs and lower demand for freight transport hastened an anticipated pullback in sales.15 As a result, sales of the biggest

rigs plunged 20 percent from their 1999 level.16 Employment in

truck tractor manufacturing took a similar turn. As a whole,

employment declines among truck tractor manufacturers accounted for more than one-quarter of the job losses in motor

vehicle manufacturing and also contributed to declines in motor vehicle parts.

17 Employment in truck and bus bodies and

truck trailers showed weaknesses as well. Both had shown

strong job growth in 1999, but employment in truck and bus

bodies was unchanged in 2000, while truck trailers lost 7,000

jobs; a 16-percent decline.

Motor home manufacturing paralleled the decline in heavy

trucks. As fuel prices surged, the cost of traveling in motor

homes rose. Interest rates also entered into the equation both

for consumers and dealers. Since dealers generally finance

their inventories, higher interest rates and falling sales pushed

up their inventory carrying costs. As much as higher diesel

prices tied together the fortunes of recreational vehicles (RVs)

and heavy trucks, higher interest rates tied together the fortunes of these residences on wheels and of fixed residences, in

other words, residential construction.

During the first part of the year, the Federal Reserve contin- , the Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates. ued to raise interest rates.18 Construction was one area that Construction was one area that

was affected. fected. For the year, the construction industry added

about 223,000 jobs, a 33-percent drop from 1999’s gains.

Although declining mortgage rates in the second half of the

year sparked some late-year hiring, this renewed strength

was not sufficient to compensate for sluggish summer hiring.

In terms of real value put-in-place, residential construction

activity decreased slightly in 2000, a marked pause after 1999’s

6-percent growth.19 Slower home building translated into more

moderate hiring in residential building construction. Employment in this industry expanded by 30,000 in 2000, a 42-percent

reduction from its 1999 increase. Hiring in special trade contractors diminished as well, totaling 165,000 last year, versus

254,000 in 1999. The value of public construction projects,

though perhaps less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations,

also moderated in 2000, as its growth notched down from 4

percent in 1999 to 2 percent in 2000. That decline made its mark

on heavy construction, which added only 5,000 workers, versus 18,000 in 1999. Yet, even as residential and public construction subsided, private nonresidential work expanded, with

its real value put-in-place increasing by 7 percent or $12.0 billion. Employment in nonresidential building construction did

reflect this one area of strength, as it grew by 21,000, and

exceeded its prior 5-year average annual gains of 16,000. In

Chart 1. Employment in oil and gas extraction and petroleum refining,

 January 1998 – December 2000

Refining

 (In thousands)

Extraction

(In thousands)

280

300

320

340

360

80

85

90

95

100

Oil and gas extraction, seasonally adjusted

Petroleum refining, not seasonally adjusted

Jan.

1998

July

1998

Jan.

1999

July

1999

Jan.

2000

July

2000

Dec.

2000

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 9

short, as residential and building activity slackened, so did the

employment growth in construction, and this weakening was

only partially offset by strength in nonresidential construction.20

Real estate, like construction, sandwiched a weak spring

and summer between strong hiring early and late in the year—

thus reflecting the rise and fall in mortgage rates. Overall,

employment grew by 26,000, a substantial slowdown from

1999’s increase of 40,000. Mortgage rates also made a visible

mark on employment in mortgage banks and brokerages (part

of the finance industry), where the number of jobs slid by

21,000. Layoffs resulted from the sharp decline in mortgage

refinancing. The value of refinance applications fell from 54

percent of total mortgage applications in the first quarter of

1999 to 17 percent in the third quarter of 2000.21 That decline

occurred while sales of new and existing homes fell only

slightly.

The slowdown in residential construction was mild, compared with the decline in manufactured homes. Shipments

from January to October 2000 plummeted 26.0 percent, with

respect to the same period in 1999. Loans for manufactured

homes fall within the subprime lending market, which charges

higher rates than conventional mortgages. Buyers of these

homes tend to have relatively low incomes. As a result, rising

interest rates, together with tightening credit standards, hurt

sales of manufactured homes particularly. Declining sales and

rising inventories led the industry to cut production and employment.22 Job losses in wood buildings and mobile homes

totaled 13,000, accounting for more than half the decline in

lumber and wood products manufacturing.

At first, the remaining job losses in lumber and wood products seem to reflect the general slowing in residential construction. Indeed, demand for all construction supplies and

materials peaked in March, and both domestic new orders and

shipments decreased subsequently.23 This decline in orders

contrasts sharply with the prior year’s high demand for construction supplies and the resulting reports of building material shortages.24 Yet, the employment declines that appeared in

lumber and wood products, and in primary metals, (two industries closely tied to construction) reflected not only the

weak demand for wood and steel, but also the particularly

weak demand for U.S.-produced wood and steel; for while their

domestic output dropped, lumber imports remained steady,

and primary metal imports sprang upwards.25 In terms of employment, other construction-related manufacturing industries

did not show as much weakening as lumber and primary metals. Indeed, employment in stone, clay, and glass products

declined by only 2,000, after having been unchanged in 1999.

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

$0.75

$1.00

$1.25

$1.50

$1.75

Chart 2. Over-the-month changes in trucking employment and on-highway diesel prices,

 January 1998 – December 2000

6,000 average monthly job 

growth in 1998

4,000 average monthly 

growth in 1999

3,000 average monthly 

growth in 2000

 SOURCE: Employment data are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey; diesel prices are from 

the U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Agency.

Jan.

1998

July

1998

Jan.

1999

July

1999

Jan.

2000

July

2000

Dec.

2000

Diesel prices

Dollar per

 gallon

Employment change

(In thousands, seasonally adjusted )
10 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

As home sales moderated, so did the growth in the demand

for furniture, appliances, and landscaping. Employment growth

in landscaping and horticultural services fell to about onethird its 1999 rate. The “do-it-yourself” side of this market also

weakened as sales growth in building materials and garden

supplies stores slowed to 3.0 percent, versus 10.6 percent in

1999.26 The industry’s employment trend matched that weakening as its rate of expansion declined from 4.8 percent in 1999

to 1.2 percent, with just 12,000 jobs added in 2000. The story

was similar for furniture and fixtures, with both manufacturers

and retailers sharply cutting their prior year’s rate of job growth.

As for household appliances manufacturing, employment

slipped by 6,000 in 2000, after having risen by 3,000 the year

before.

Aside from construction, real estate, and their related industries, the other industries most directly affected by increasing interest rates were in finance. Although cross-industry

mergers may have provoked some layoffs in these industries,

their employment picture turned gray only once interest rates

began their ascent. Such was the case with depository institutions as well, in which employment plummeted by 26,000, thus

erasing its growth of the prior 2 years.

Rising interest rates also affected the stock market, indirectly. Concern about the direction of the economy and the

ability of companies to post strong profits as operating costs

rose contributed to large swings in stock prices and high volumes of daily trading. Although the market in no way matched

1999’s boom, the high trading volumes and record profits at

brokerages spurred security and commodity brokers to expand their ranks by 60,000—a notable hiring pace even for an

industry that added 37,000 workers a year, on average, between 1994 and 1999.27

Increasing international trade affected several manufactur- Increasing international trade affected several manufactur- Increasing international trade affected several manufacturing industries. ing industries. Aircraft and textiles saw their job losses diminish as they benefited from improving foreign demand. In

contrast, rising imports contributed to employment declines

in logging, primary metals, and apparel.

Steel imports, particularly from the Ukraine, China, and India, surged 9.1 percent last year, as the U.S. dollar gained

strength against foreign currencies.28 These elements—along

with the world steel industry’s overcapacity—hurt domestic

producers, as primary metals industries cut 11,000 workers

from payrolls last year.29 Although that employment decline

about matched the 10,000 drop in 1999, their similarity merely

reflects the passing improvement in this industry in late 1999

and early 2000. During that period, steel prices rose and

brought production and employment levels up also. Yet, these

gains were short-lived, as prices slid midyear and the job losses

resumed.30

In the logging industry, imports from January to November 2000 rose 30.7 percent, compared with the same period in

1999, even while residential construction slowed.31 Those two

factors contributed to the 5,000 workers cut from logging payrolls last year. This is a change from the normal pattern. Trade

has traditionally favored logging, which maintained a trade surplus and relatively steady payrolls throughout the 1990s.

Apparel, by contrast, has suffered from rising trade deficits

and falling employment during most of that period. In 2000,

apparel’s job losses totaled 44,000. Although that decline was

markedly milder than the 64,000 jobs shed in 1999, it represented the largest job losses among nondurable goods manufacturing last year.32 Indeed, from 1994 to 1999, apparel employment plunged by nearly one-third, or 304,000. Increasing

imports pushed the industry’s trade deficit up 17.3 percent

between January and November 2000, with respect to the same

period in 1999.

Unlike apparel, the textile industry benefited from actual

gains in international trade last year. Exports increased to the

Americas and, to a lesser extent, Asia, and probably helped

slow the shedding of textiles jobs.33 Through November 2000,

exports of fabric and yarn grew about 18 percent, with respect

to the same period in 1999. Fabric even achieved a slight trade

surplus.34 Trade legislation that passed last year created incentives for fabric and yarn exports to several regions.35 In

spite of the improvements in exports, textile employment continued to fall. Its 20,000 decline, however, was mild, compared

with the 34,000 drop in 1999. Furthermore, last year’s job losses

were concentrated in only three industries: knitting mills;

textile finishing, except wool; and carpets and rugs (for which

losses were related to the slowdown in residential construction). In prior years, however, the declines tended to be more

widespread—much like they continue to be in the apparel industry.36

U.S. trade with Asia benefited not only the textiles industry,

but also the aircraft industry. Asia’s 1997 financial crisis had

hurt U.S. aerospace manufacturers significantly, as Asian airlines delayed or canceled orders. In 2000, however, U.S. manufacturers’ aircraft order books filled up again, thanks partly to

Asia’s improving economies, which spurred renewed orders

for commercial aircraft.37 U.S. carriers also contributed important bookings, and so unfilled orders for aircraft and parts

reached their highest levels since 1998.38 As the backlog of

orders increased, the aircraft industry’s job losses abated. For

the year, employment fell by 18,000 jobs, or about one-third its

1999 decline, with most of the declines coming in the first half

of the year. Data on aircraft’s average workweek provide another sign of the industry’s improvement. The average of total

weekly paid work hours, as well as those that are overtime

hours, rose throughout the year for total gains of 1.1 and 1.6

hours, respectively. Nonetheless, they still remained below

their 1997 levels, that is, below their levels prior to the recession that affected many Asian economies.

Legislative changes factored into the employment develop- Legislative changes factored into the employment developments in health services and social services—industries in
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 11

which employment is closely tied to demographics and gov- which employment is closely tied to demographics and government funding. ernment funding. Within health services, home health care

services and hospitals benefited from the implementation of

(separate) medicare prospective payment systems. The transition from the Job Training Partnership Act to the Workforce

Investment Act shifted the seasonal hiring patterns in State,

local, and private social services.

Higher medicare payments coincided with renewed hiring

in the home health care industry. Home health’s Prospective

Payment System marked the end of the Interim Payment System mandated by the 1997 Balanced Budget Act. Announced

in late June and effective October 1, 2000, the medicare prospective payment system reimburses home health agencies by

a predetermined amount per 60-day treatment “episodes,” and

the reimbursement is adjusted for the level of patient care and

regional wage differences.39

The move to the prospective payment system was the second significant funding increase for home health agencies since

the cutbacks mandated by 1997’s Balanced Budget Act. The

first increase had come with the November 1999 passage of the

Balanced Budget Refinement Act, which partially restored funding that had been cut under the Balanced Budget Act.40 As

chart 3 illustrates, the moderate recovery in home health care

employment began about when the 1999 Balanced Budget

Refinement Act was passed. As further reimbursement increases were provided in the prospective payment system,

providers expanded their staffs last year by 7,000. This gain

represented a modest recovery after the industry had lost 68,000

jobs in 1998 and another 5,000 in 1999.

Hospitals also benefited from higher medicare reimbursements in both 1999 (for inpatient services) and 2000 (for outpatient services). Inpatient medicare reimbursements rose under

the Balanced Budget Refinement Act of 1999. On August 1,

2000, the hospitals’ outpatient prospective payment system

took effect, and, like its home health care cousin, it was expected to result in increased medicare reimbursements.41

The impact of higher medicare payments on employment was

not as clear in hospitals as in home health care, possibly because

of factors such as decreased managed care and other private

sector payments, which hurt hospital operating margins through

1999.42 Reports covering last year indicated that hospital profits

began to recover to some extent.43 Private hospitals kept expanding their payrolls last year, with employment rising by 50,000.

That pace topped 1999’s increase of 35,000 jobs, as well as surpassing the industry’s annual average gains between 1994 and

1998. In contrast to private hospitals, local government hospitals had lost jobs each year from 1994 through 1998, and then

added 4,000 workers in 1999 and 13,000 in 2000.

Social services also were affected by legislative changes in

2000. The transition from the Job Training Partnership Act

Chart 3. Employment in hospitals and home health care services, seasonally adjusted,

 January 1998 – December 2000

Home health care

 (In thousands)

Hospitals

(In thousands)

3,875

3,900

3,925

3,950

3,975

4,000

4,025

4,050

4,075

625

650

675

700

725

Private hospitals

Home health care services

Jan.

1998

July

1998

Jan.

1999

July

1999

Jan.

2000

July

2000

Dec.

2000

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.
12 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

(JTPA) to the Workforce Investment Act affected the typical

summer hiring patterns in private, State, and local social services, although it is unlikely that the new legislation affected

annual employment growth rates. Historically, the JTPA’s summer programs provided for about 8 weeks of part-time employment for youth, who worked in government or private, nonprofit agencies. Under the Workforce Investment Act (passed

on August 7, 1998 and implemented in 2000), the summer youth

program was integrated into the general youth services, which

focus on a full year of training and activities, and not just

summer employment.44 In addition, not all States had completed their transition by summer, which delayed the funding

and implementation of the new program even as the JTPA program funding had expired.45 Even States that were prepared

for the transition provided jobs for fewer youth, because the

full-year focus of the Workforce Investment Act required

greater funding per participant, although its budget did not

rise.46 These factors translated into greatly reduced summer

hiring in private, State, and local social services—the industries in which employment of youth under JTPA had been concentrated.

Although summer hiring fell, the overall employment trends

in these industries remained constant. In 2000, private social

services employment grew by 169,000, or 6 percent, thus matching its 1999 growth rate. Employment in State social services

was unchanged in 2000, as in 1999, while local social services

added 4,000 workers.

Information technology ( Information technology (IT) has created thousands of jobs, ) has created thousands of jobs,

but not all but not all IT-related industries benefited during 2000. -related industries benefited during 2000. In

general, industries dealing with semiconductors showed the

strongest gains while growth in computer manufacturing and

trade faltered.

The broadening scope of IT had mixed employment effects

in 2000. Employment in semiconductor manufacturing and

trade rose precisely because of the ever-widening range and

sophistication of products incorporating information technology. At the same time, the most “classic” instrument of IT, the

personal computer, showed signs of becoming a mature industry, as business and consumer PC sales dropped.47 Overall

computer production did grow, but remained well below capacity, and employment in the industry declined. Employment

related to the wholesale and retail sale of computers weakened. In short, “information technology” connections did not

necessarily translate into exceptional employment growth in

2000.

Last year, employment in electronic components and accessories—primarily, the semiconductor industry—surged by

54,000. As the year progressed, industry news increasingly

announced a slowdown in semiconductor sales, and cited a

possible production overcapacity. Slowing demand, however,

did not imply weak demand; indeed, the book-to-bill ratio, which

compares orders to shipments, spent much of the year above

1999’s level.48 Instead of slowing, hiring accelerated during

the year.

Other manufacturers of IT equipment also hired additional

staff, albeit at a much slower pace than semiconductors. Communications equipment added 7,000 workers, mostly in telephone and telegraph apparatus and radio and television and

communications equipment. The former produces equipment

used to provide land wiring for the Internet; the latter produces cellular telephones.

Industrial machinery, which includes computers, also partially played a role in IT-related manufacturing, although its

role did not translate into job growth. While production and

exports of computers and office equipment maintained their

ascent last year, the industry’s work force shrank by 8,000.

Both semiconductor and computer manufacturers enjoyed extraordinary productivity gains in the 1990s.49 One key difference between them—which underscores the strength in product demand in the semiconductor industry, compared with computer manufacturing—was that semiconductor plants operated most of 2000 at or near their reported peak capacity,

whereas computer plants operated at about 80 percent capacity.50 Acceleration or deceleration in employment growth in

semiconductors consistently precedes similar changes in the

industry’s production capacity, and that was likely the case

last year, as this industry accelerated its hiring even after its

plants reached their estimated peak output levels.51

By cutting jobs, computers and office equipment acted practically alone among IT-related manufacturers. In contrast, special industrial machinery and miscellaneous industrial and

commercial machinery each brought on 5,000 workers. As a

whole, these industries may have benefited from semiconductor industry’s acute need to expand, and thus purchase industrial equipment.52

Computer manufacturing demonstrates that not all IT industries stood out in terms of job growth. The IT-related parts of

wholesale and retail trade provided even more evidence. (See

charts 4 and 5.) In 2000, professional and commercial equipment distribution (which includes computers) cut 8,000 jobs

after having brought on 22,000 in 1999, and thus accounting

for some of the slowdown in wholesale trade. Employment

growth, however, continued in electrical goods distribution.

Riding the strength of semiconductor trade, electrical goods

wholesalers brought on 24,000 workers, thus exceeding their

prior 5-year average yearly gains of 18,000.

The only distinguishable IT component of retail trade is

radio, TV, and computer stores. Between 1994 and 1999, employment in these stores had surged by about 5 percent annually, consistently above retail trade as a whole. In 2000, however, that difference disappeared, as their growth rate dropped

to about 1.8 percent. Although last year’s declining computer

sales would have hurt these stores, sales of other consumer

electronics increased by 14 percent.53 Outside competition

probably best explains the employment slowdown in radio, TV,
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 13

Chart 4. Information technology in wholesale trade, over-the-year percent change in employment,

 1991–2000

Percent change

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Percent change

-10

-5

0

5

10

-10

-5

0

5

10

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Wholesale trade, seasonally adjusted

 Professional and commercial equipment,

 

 not seasonally adjusted

Chart 5. Information technology in retail trade, over-the-year percent change in employment,

 1991–2000

Percent change

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Percent change

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Retail trade, seasonally adjusted

 Radio, TV, and computer stores,

 

 not seasonally adjusted
14 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

and computer stores. Part of it came from discount department

stores, which increasingly used electronics promotions to get

customers in the door.54 Further competition came through

the Internet, especially from computer companies that sell their

wares online.55

Like semiconductors in manufacturing, software was a pillar of employment growth among IT-related computer service

industries in 2000. Prepackaged software brought on 39,000

workers, thus equaling its 1999 expansion. Other computer

service industries, such as programming, information retrieval,

data processing, and consulting, did not fare as well, with

employment growth plummeting in many industries from their

1999 rates. Demand for some IT services may have slackened

as work to ready systems for Y2K was completed. Nonetheless, it is also likely that computer services may have been

constrained less by demand than by the supply of labor.

Did labor shortages contribute to a slowdown in job growth

in some industries? Last year, total nonfarm payrolls expanded

by 2.1 million jobs, or 1.6 percent, an impressive figure, but

the weakest seen since 1992. The general economic factors

already presented certainly justify the reduced hiring in many

industries. Unemployment, nonetheless, remained low

throughout the year, and anecdotal evidence suggested that

some firms still had trouble recruiting.56 So, the question

emerges whether the slowdown was partly caused by a labor

shortage.

What (indirect) evidence of shortages, then, can data from

the establishment survey provide?57 At first look, it seems

implausible that business services would have suffered from

recruiting difficulties. In 2000, business services once again

added more jobs than any other industry, its payrolls expanding by 313,000 workers.58 Yet, its growth rate sank more than

most industries and reached its lowest level since the 1991

recession. Within business services, personnel supply services (which includes help supply services) and computer and

data processing services experienced sharp slowdowns. Job

growth in personnel supply slid from 11 percent in 1999 to 3

percent in 2000; in computer services, it dropped from 10 percent to 5 percent. General economic factors—such as higher

interest rates and energy prices—certainly entered into the

equation, particularly in personnel supply services, which cut

39,000 jobs in the fourth quarter. Revenues of temporary help

agencies, as measured by sales of their services, saw their

smallest percentage growth since the 1991 recession, although

they had begun to cool in 1999.59 But was this slowdown due

to less demand for temporary staff or a shortage of workers to

fill positions?

Anecdotal evidence continued to point to the difficulties

temporary help firms had in recruiting.60 Hiring less-skilled

workers may not be an option for temporary staffing firms,

which instead have witnessed the rise of the “portfolio workers,” independent professionals employed through staffing

services.61 That shifting demand toward higher-skilled workers may be leading firms into a “war for talent,” in which the

weapons include training, health insurance, paid vacations,

and money.62 Average hourly earnings growth in help supply

services reached about 6.8 percent in 2000, after having increased 3.4 percent in 1999; for all services industries, earnings growth reached 4.4 percent, up from 3.7 percent in 1999.

Help supply earnings remain, on average, relatively low, in

spite of their rapid rate of growth. The same cannot be said for

computer and data processing services, where earnings topped

$23 an hour, growing by 4.4 percent last year. Thus, there is

some evidence from both help supply and computer services

that worker shortages have served to bid up wages.

Engineering and management services also requires a

skilled work force, but unlike business services, its 4.9-percent

rate of job growth exceeded 1999’s rate. Furthermore, any

recruiting troubles this industry may have had did not translate into higher pay. Indeed, earnings growth in engineering

and management services decelerated to the point of falling

below the rate of inflation.

Although residential building slowed last year, worker shortages still affected construction. Their influence, however, is

unclear, and their effects may be offsetting. On the one hand,

some firms that normally would have laid off employees when

demand began to slacken decided instead to retain workers so

they would be available when demand improved. On the other

hand, those firms that wished to expand may have been constrained from hiring as many workers as necessary. Unlike

business services, construction companies can, and have, resorted to filling some posts with less skilled workers than those

traditionally recruited.63 Such a “deskilling” of the construction work force could help hold down the earnings growth of

construction workers, but that did not appear to take place last

year. Earnings growth accelerated to 3.9 percent over the year,

with higher growth rates throughout the year, compared with

1999. In short, construction, like business services, dealt with

moderating employment growth, but accelerating wage gains.

Recruiting troubles are not necessarily restricted to industries in expansion. Just as these troubles may have diminished hiring in construction and business services, they may

have led some manufacturing industries to diminish their layoffs. When needing to increase production, manufacturers

have traditionally used overtime before hiring additional workers. Last year, however, the flip side of this story unfolded.

Coinciding with renewed layoffs, the manufacturing workweek

dove to its lowest level since 1992.64 Furthermore, the industries that reduced their workweek the most tended to be the

ones with a higher proportion of skilled production workers—just as they were the ones that increased their use of

overtime the most during the post-recession 1990s.65 The

high cost of recruiting and training such workers may have

made manufacturers wary to lay them off, especially given

any uncertainty about how long any downturn would last,
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 15

choosing instead to reduce their work hours.

Although some evidence of skilled labor shortages emerges

in construction, business services, and manufacturing, the

same is not the case in several industries with a preponderance of low-paid, low-skilled positions. Hotels, amusement

and recreation services, and eating and drinking places generally maintained their hiring pace last year. Rising somewhat

from their 1999 growth rates were hotels, where employment

rose by 3.6 percent, and amusement and recreation services,

where it rose 5.7 percent. Eating and drinking places saw its

hiring hold firm at 1.6 percent. Combined employment in these

industries expanded by 293,000. Nonetheless, to find these

workers, both lodging and dining establishments did have to

resort to raising wage rates above 4.2 percent, the wage growth

rate for all private industries. Earnings growth for workers in

hotels rose to 4.8 percent over the year, versus 3.7 in 1999. In

eating and drinking places, earnings growth reached 4.7 percent in 2000, up from 1999’s strong 4.3 percent gain.

If a labor shortage were to emerge, it would most like occur

during the seasonal hiring period when hundreds of thousands of workers are needed for temporary jobs. To analyze

the amount of seasonal hiring that took place in these industries, it is necessary to look at the total change in their notseasonally-adjusted employment series in the months leading

up to the summer. For eating and drinking places, that buildup

period lasts from February through June, while for hotels and

amusement and recreation services, it lasts from February

through July. In the latter industries, 2000’s summer buildup

surpassed every year of the 1990s. Hotels brought on 326,000

workers; a 14.4-percent increase from their 1999 seasonal hiring, while in amusement and recreation services, 647,000 workers came on board—a 17.4-percent increase. Seasonal hiring

for eating and drinking places fell slightly from the levels in

1999, but by very little; it totaled 671,000 workers in 2000, versus 689,000 the year earlier. Although it is impossible to say

whether these industries fell short of their seasonal hiring goals,

it is clear that, as a group, they were able to exceed their prior

years’ results—at a cost of having to accept relatively high

wage growth.

Anecdotal evidence has suggested that firms across many

industries are having to deal with shortages. Employment and

earnings data from the establishment survey does provide

some indirect, but not conclusive, evidence of labor shortages, particularly of skilled workers, in business services, construction, and manufacturing. Yet, industries that rely on relatively low-skilled help did not appear to end up short-handed

in 2000 either for year-round or summer workers, although their

relatively high wage growth does indicate that firms did have

some difficulty in staffing.

In recent years, the unemployment rate has been at 3-decade

lows and employment has continued to expand, leading

economists to look for signs of tightness in the labor market. economists to look for signs of tightness in the labor market.

Concern has arisen as to whether the supply of workers would

be adequate to meet growing demand; in fact, the previous

section of this article suggests that supply may not have been

adequate in certain industries. However, as continued employment growth did not result in accelerated wage gains,

questions were once again raised as to where the supply of

workers came from over the year. The CPS is able to provide

information that can be used, in a limited way, as a measure

of the potential supply of workers. It is also able to show, to

some degree, where the newly employed came from in 2000.

The CPS provides data that can be used to identify two main

groups of potential workers: unemployed individuals and persons not in the labor force who indicate that they currently

want a job. There were 5.7 million unemployed persons and 4.4

million who were not in the labor force, but reported that they

indeed wanted a job.66 Of this latter group of persons, 1.2

million reported that they actually searched for work within the

past 12 months and were available to take a job if one were

offered; this group is often referred to as “marginally attached”

to the labor force. Among marginally attached workers, 260,000

had looked for work in the previous 12 months, but were not

currently looking, 67 because they believed that no jobs were

available for them or that there were none for which they would

qualify; this group is known as discouraged workers.68 (See

chart 6.)

Since 1994, the number of persons outside the labor force

who want a job has declined by 30 percent.69 The number who

were currently available, and actually looked, for work within

12 months of being surveyed fell by 36 percent. The count of

discouraged workers declined even more dramatically, by 48

percent between 1994 and 2000. These numbers suggest that

there may have been significant movement into the labor force

by those previously not participating.

Other potential sources of labor include persons not in the

labor force who report that they do not want a job; an increase

in the number of multiple jobholders; and population growth,

including persons immigrating to the United States. In 2000,

there were 64.5 million persons not in the labor force who, at

the time of the survey, indicated that they did not want a job.

However, it is possible that certain persons in this group would

enter the labor force under the right conditions. For example, a

retired 65-year-old who, in 1999, reported that he did not want

a job because of concerns that his Social Security benefits

would decrease might have changed his mind with the repeal,

in 2000, of the Social Security “earnings test.”70 Another example might be a mother who doesn’t want a job because she

is uncomfortable leaving her children with the child-care providers in her area. If conditions were to change—a trusted

relative moved to the area and agreed to watch the children—

she may then decide to look for employment. There are countless scenarios in which changing conditions may induce persons to enter the labor force, though previously, they were not

interested.
16 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

An increase in the number of persons working more than

one job could be an additional source of labor. However, in

recent years, the number of multiple jobholders has actually

declined, from 8.0 million in 1997 to 7.6 million in 2000. Multiple

jobholders made up 5.6 percent of all employed persons in

2000, down from 6.2 percent in 1996. There are several possible explanations for the decrease in the number of multiple

jobholders. It may be that the strong economy has helped

persons who previously worked two part-time jobs find one

full-time job. Indeed, the number of persons working two parttime jobs has been on the decline, while full-time employment

has grown. It is also reasonable to assume that the strong

economy and increased earnings lessened the financial need

to moonlight for workers who already had a full-time job.71

Persons immigrating to the United States are yet another

potential source of labor.72 In 2000, the foreign-born population was 26.5 million. In recent years, the foreign born have

accounted for a disproportionately large share of U.S. population growth. By 2000, the foreign born accounted for 12.5

percent of all employed persons in the U.S. 73 Of the foreignborn population that immigrated to the United States in 1999

and 2000, 57.0 percent (or 966,000) were employed in 2000; this

figure tends to rise with the length of stay in the United States.74

The labor market is very dynamic, with changes in employment reflecting both changes in population and changes in the

proportion of the population that is employed; the latter is

largely tied to the performance of the economy. From 1999–

2000, the civilian noninstitutional population increased by 2.2

million, and employment grew by about 1.8 million. About 76

percent of net employment growth can be attributed to the

growth in population. That is, if the proportion of the population employed had not changed, employment still would have

increased by about 1.4 million. However, the percent of the

population with jobs increased slightly and that increase accounted for the balance (about 447,000 or 24 percent) of the

total change in employment.75

The labor market situation for minority workers improved The labor market situation for minority workers improved

notably in 2000. notably in 2000. Indeed, both blacks and Hispanics managed to slightly close the unemployment rate gap between

whites over the year. Employment increases were particularly strong for Hispanics. A summary of the labor market

performance of various demographic groups and a review of

other aspects of the changing job market provide further insight into the employment situation in 2000.

The labor market, as depicted by the CPS, was relatively

healthy in 2000.76 The number of employed persons continued to increase (by 1.4 million), though at a slower pace than in

1999.77 The percentage of the population that was employed

(the employment-population ratio) reached a record high of

64.6 percent in the first quarter of 2000 and ended the year at

64.4 percent, in line with 1999 levels. The number of unemChart 6. Persons not in the labor force, annual average, 2000

NOTE: Persons not in the labor force who “want a job” are neither working nor currently looking for work, but have simply expressed 

a desire for a job. Marginally attached workers are persons who are not in the labor force, who want and are available for a job, and 

who have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), 

but are not currently looking. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached who are not currently looking for work 

because they believe that no jobs are available or that there are none for which they would qualify.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Not in the labor force

"don't want a job"

(64,459,000)

Discouraged workers

(260,000)

Marginally attached workers

(1,152,000) } } Persons not in the labor 

force who "want a job"

(4,377,000)
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 17

Table 2. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older, by selected characteristics,

 quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1999–2000

[Numbers in thousands]

Change, fourthFourth-quarter quarter 1999

1999 First Second Third Fourth to fourth

quarter quarter quarter quarter quarter 20001

 TOTAL

Civilian labor force ...................................... 140,003 140,737 140,815 140,706 141,208 1,328

Participation rate ................................. 67.1 67.4 67.3 67 67.1 0.0

Employed ................................................ 134,263 135,036 135,181 135,049 135,593 1,447

Employment-population ratio ............... 64.3 64.6 64.6 64.3 64.4 .1

Unemployed ............................................ 5,740 5,700 5,634 5,657 5,616 –118

 Unemployment rate............................. 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 –.1

 Men, 20 years and older ...............

Civilian labor force ...................................... 70,453 70,834 70,741 70,955 71,193 788

Participation rate ................................. 76.6 76.9 76.5 76.5 76.5 -.2

Employed ................................................ 68,076 68,487 68,426 68,644 68,768 739

Employment-population ratio ............... 74.0 74.4 74.0 74.0 73.9 –.1

Unemployed ............................................ 2,377 2,347 2,315 2,310 2,425 49

Unemployment rate .............................. 3.4 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 .0

 Women, 20 years and older ...........

Civilian labor force ...................................... 61,140 61,508 61,666 61,429 61,657 583

Participation rate ................................. 60.8 61.1 61.1 60.7 60.7 –.1

Employed ................................................ 58,925 59,273 59,399 59,203 59,546 684

Employment-population ratio ............... 58.6 58.9 58.9 58.5 58.6 .0

Unemployed ............................................ 2,215 2,234 2,267 2,226 2,111 –102

Unemployment rate .............................. 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.4 –.2

 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years ........

Civilian labor force ...................................... 8,410 8,395 8,407 8,322 8,358 –42

Participation rate ................................. 52.2 51.9 52.4 52.1 52.3 .1

Employed ................................................ 7,261 7,276 7,356 7,202 7,278 24

Employment-population ratio ............... 45.1 45.0 45.9 45.1 45.5 .3

Unemployed ............................................ 1,148 1,119 1,051 1,121 1,080 –67

Unemployment rate .............................. 13.7 13.3 12.5 13.5 12.9 –.8

..............................

 White ..............................

Civilian labor force ...................................... 116,919 117,579 117,535 117,468 117,729 873

Participation rate ................................. 67.3 67.6 67.5 67.3 67.3 –.1

Employed ................................................ 112,816 113,459 113,481 113,348 113,635 878

Employment-population ratio ............... 64.9 65.2 65.1 64.9 64.9 .0

Unemployed ............................................ 4,103 4,120 4,054 4,121 4,095 –5

Unemployment rate .............................. 3.5 3.5 3.4 3.5 3.5 .0

...................................................................

 Black ..............................

...................................................................

Civilian labor force ...................................... 16,503 16,619 16,579 16,510 16,700 218

Participation rate ................................. 66 66.3 65.9 65.4 65.8 –.2

Employed ................................................ 15,170 15,322 15,306 15,258 15,452 302

Employment-population ratio ............... 60.6 61.1 60.8 60.4 60.9 .3

Unemployed ............................................ 1,333 1,297 1,273 1,252 1,248 –84

Unemployment rate .............................. 8.1 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.5 –.6

...................................................................

 Hispanic origin ........................

...................................................................

Civilian labor force ...................................... 14,918 15,215 15,314 15,356 15,596 693

Participation rate ................................. 68.0 68.8 68.7 68.3 68.8 .8

Employed ................................................ 14,015 14,324 14,443 14,490 14,723 721

Employment-population ratio ............... 63.9 64.8 64.8 64.4 64.9 1.0

Unemployed ............................................ 903 892 870 866 873 –28

Unemployment rate .............................. 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.6 –.5

2000

1

 Estimates of over-the-year changes have been adjusted to reflect revisions to population controls introduced in January 2000.

 NOTE: Detail for race and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals

Characteristic

because data for the “other races” group are not presented and Hispanics are

included in both the white and black population groups.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
18 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

ployed persons declined for the 8th consecutive year, and the

unemployment rate reached a 31-year-low of 4.0 percent in

2000. (See table 2 and chart 7.)

Virtually all of the employment growth occurred among

adults aged 20 years and older. Employment increased by

739,000 for adult men and by 684,000 for adult women. The

percentage of adult men who were employed in 2000 was about

unchanged from 1999, at 73.9 percent. The employment-population ratio for adult women was 58.6 percent, about unchanged

from 1999’s record high. During most of the current expansion, 78 the ratios for men and women have continued the

long-term pattern of convergence, with the women’s ratio growing slightly faster than that for men. (See chart 8.) The number of unemployed adults decreased by 53,000 in 2000. The

unemployment rate for adult men was 3.4 percent in 2000, unchanged from 1999. For adult women, the unemployment rate

edged down to 3.4 percent, their lowest fourth-quarter rate

since 1952.

The labor market situation for teenagers (persons aged 16

to 19 years) changed little between 1999 and 2000. The teenage unemployment rate edged down to 12.9 percent—their

lowest rate since 1969. In 2000, 45.5 percent of teenagers were

employed; a rate higher than the 42.2 percent at the beginning

of the current expansion. Nevertheless, the percentage of teenagers employed is lower than the historical fourth-quarter peak

of 48.7 percent in 1978. In 2000, 1 of every 4 employed teenagers worked in sales occupations (mostly in retail and personal

service sales).79 Nearly one-third of teenagers held service

positions, primarily in food services. Another 24 percent of

employed teenagers were almost equally split between administrative support occupations and handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, or laborers.

Among the race and ethnic groups, employment grew fastest for Hispanics. The number of employed Hispanics aged 16

and older grew by 5.1 percent; this compares with increases of

2.0 percent for blacks and 0.8 percent for whites. Part of the

strong employment growth for Hispanics reflects population

growth. The Hispanic population grew by 3.5 percent in 2000,

while the black and white populations grew 1.6 percent and 0.8

percent, respectively. However, the increase in employment

for Hispanics also reflects an increase in the percentage of

their population that was employed. Their employment-population ratio reached an all-time high of 64.9 percent.80 Among

whites, the employment-population ratio remained unchanged

over the year at 64.9 percent; among blacks, the ratio edged up

slightly to 60.9 percent. Over the course of this expansion, the

employment-population ratio grew the most for blacks (by 5.6

percentage points) and Hispanics (by 5.1 percentage points),

growing closer to the rate for whites, which increased by only

2.2 percentage points.

Chart 7. Unemployment rate, 1969–2000, seasonally adjusted

Percent Percent

NOTE: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data are quarterly.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 2000

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 19

The unemployment rates for Hispanics (5.6 percent) and

blacks (7.5 percent) declined to record lows in 2000, whereas

the rate for whites (3.5 percent) was unchanged from the prior

year’s 3-decade low.81 Though the unemployment rate for

whites remained lower than that for blacks and Hispanics, the

gaps between the unemployment rates for whites and blacks

and for whites and Hispanics narrowed over the year.

Among workers aged 25 years and older, all of the employment gains were for workers with at least some college experience. Employment increased by 534,000 for workers with some

college, and by 642,000 for workers with a bachelor’s degree or

more.82 For workers with a high school diploma or less, employment declined. The unemployment rate was about unchanged for persons with less than a high school education

(at 6.4 percent) and edged up for persons with a high school

diploma (to 3.5 percent). The unemployment rate remained

about unchanged for persons with some college experience (at

2.6 percent) and among college graduates (at 1.6 percent).

The number of employed persons aged 16 and older working usual full-time schedules (35 hours or more) increased to

112.3 million in 2000, accounting for 83.1 percent of the work

force.83 The percentage of workers employed full time has

increased steadily since 1994 when it was 81.1 percent.84 In

2000, men were more likely to have usual full-time schedules

than were women; 89.8 percent of all employed men, compared

with 75.3 percent of employed women. However, the number

of women working full-time schedules has been growing faster

than that for men. Since 1994, the number of women working

full-time increased by 15.7 percent; this compares with an increase of 10.4 percent for men.

Of the number of persons at work part time in 2000, 3.2

million (or 10.8 percent) did so for economic reasons, such as

only being able to find part-time work. Since 1994, the number

of persons at work part time for economic reasons has declined by 31.0 percent. Among those at work part time in 2000,

women were less likely (8.8 percent) than men (14.1 percent) to

work part time for economic reasons.

Of the total number of employed persons in 2000, the vast

majority (93 percent) were wage and salary workers.85 Most of

the remaining 7 percent were self-employed, a percentage that

has been on a long-term downward trend. In 1948, almost 1 in

5 workers were self-employed, many of them as farmers. 86

(See charts 9 and 10.) In 2000, men were more likely to be selfemployed than women; 8.3 percent of working men were selfemployed, versus 5.9 percent of employed women.

In addition to the 9.7 million persons who were self-employed

in 2000, there were 4.4 million wage and salary workers who owned

businesses that were incorporated.87 The number of incorporated self-employed workers grew by 59,000 in 2000. Men were

more likely to own an incorporated business than were women;

Chart 8. Employment-population ratio of adults ages 20 and older, 1948–2000, seasonally adjusted

Percent Percent

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Men

Women

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000
20 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Chart 9. Self-employed as percentage of total employed, seasonally adjusted, 1948–2000 

Percent Percent

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

NOTE: Data are quarterly.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Percent Percent 

Chart 10. Share of total self-employed in agriculture, seasonally adjusted, fourth quarters, 

 1948–2000

1948 1952 1956 1960 1964 1968 1972 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

0

20

40

60

80

100

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 21

of those business owners, almost two-thirds were men.

Among all wage and salary workers, employment grew the

most in service occupations (811,000), followed by sales and

administrative support occupations (493,000), and managerial

and professional specialty occupations (340,000). 88 Within these

broad occupational categories, strong growth occurred in food

services, finance and business service sales, and financial records

processing. Strong employment growth also occurred for mathematical and computer scientists, and schoolteachers.

Median usual weekly earnings increased faster than inflation

in 2000, marking the fourth consecutive year of increases in

real earnings. real earnings.89 Earnings gains were widespread, growing

particularly fast for blacks. The earnings gaps between blacks

and whites closed slightly in 2000. At the same time, the number of hourly paid workers earning the minimum wage or less

decreased.

Median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary

workers were $576 in 2000, up 4.9 percent from $549 in 1999.90

The earnings gain was larger than the 3.4-percent rise in prices

from 1999 to 2000, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for

All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). In 2000, median weekly earnings

for men who usually work full time were $646, compared with

$491 for women. Since the Bureau of Labor Statistics began regularly collecting information on usual median weekly earnings in

the CPS in 1979, the ratio of women’s to men’s earnings has increased by 13.5 percentage points. 91 Women have gone from

making 62.5 cents for every $1 earned by men in 1979, to making

76.0 cents for every dollar in 2000. There are many possible

factors underlying the continuing disparity between the earnings of men and women. Among these factors are differences in work schedules, educational attainment, length of

experience in the work force, occupational and industry

makeup of each group, and discrimination.

Among the race and ethnic groups, median weekly earnings rose the fastest for blacks, up 5.2 percent to $468. This

compares with an increase of 3.1 percent to $591 for whites

and an increase of 2.9 percent to $396 for Hispanics. The gap

in earnings between blacks and whites closed slightly in

2000. Over the course of the expansion, earnings increased

by about 34 percent for whites and blacks; this compares

with an increase of 27 percent for Hispanics. The disparity in

earnings between the race and ethnic groups may be tied to

the same factors as that for men and women: differences in

educational attainment, length of experience in the work force,

occupational and industry makeup of the groups, and discrimination.

In 2000, median usual weekly earnings rose in all four

major educational groups. (See table 3.) Among persons

aged 25 and older, earnings increased the most for workers

with a college degree, rising by 4.2 percent over the year to

$896. Earnings for persons with some college experience or

an associate’s degree increased by 3.1 percent to $598, while

earnings for persons with a high school diploma increased

by 3.3 percent to $506, and earnings for those with less than

a high school diploma increased by 4.0 percent to $360.

Table 3. Quartiles and selected deciles of usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers, by educational

 attainment, annual averages 1999–2000

 Upper limit of:

 Educational attainment Number Second

of workers First First quartile Third Ninth

(in thousands) decile quartile (median) quartile decile

 2000

Total, 25 years and older ............................................ 87,984 $294 $407 $611 $909 $1,344

 Less than a high school diploma ............................ 8,523 225 280 360 508 706

High school graduates, no college .......................... 27,637 279 364 506 716 966

Some college or associate degree .......................... 24,452 312 422 598 834 1,136

College graduates, total .......................................... 27,372 448 625 896 1,325 1,870

 1999

Total, 25 years and older ............................................ 86,352 $284 $393 $592 $872 $1,260

Less than a high school diploma ............................. 8,459 215 267 346 494 680

High school graduates, no college .......................... 27,314 270 349 490 688 932

Some college or associate degree .......................... 23,949 300 404 580 798 1,079

College graduates, total .......................................... 26,630 430 607 860 1,243 1,749

............................................................

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

NOTE: Ten percent of all full-time wage and salary workers earn less than

the upper limit of the first decile; 25 percent earn less than the upper limit of the

first quartile; 50 percent earn less than the upper limit of the second quartile,

or median; 75 percent earn less than the upper limit of the third quartile; and

90 percent earn less than the upper limit of the ninth decile.
22 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Among workers who had attained at least a high school

diploma, earnings for the highest paid workers increased more

than earnings for the lowest paid. For high school graduates

with some college experience, earnings for the lowest paid

workers increased by 4.0 percent to $312, while the highest

paid graduates saw their earnings rise by 5.3 percent to $1,136.

Among persons with a college degree, the difference in earnings growth for low and high paid workers was even more

pronounced, 4.2 percent to $448 for the lowest paid and 6.9

percent to $1,870 for the highest paid.

For the second consecutive year, earnings for workers with

less than a high school diploma increased at a faster rate for

the lowest-paid workers than for the highest paid. Among

these workers, earnings for the lowest paid workers increased

by 4.7 percent to $225, while the highest-paid workers saw

their earnings increase by 3.8 percent to $706.

Of the 120.8 million wage and salary workers (aged 16 and

older) in 2000, 60.2 percent were paid hourly rates. Of these

hourly paid workers, 3.7 percent (or 2.7 million) earned the

prevailing minimum wage or less; significantly lower than the

series peak of 15.1 percent in 1980.92 Part of the decrease over

time in the proportion of workers with earnings at or below the

prevailing minimum reflect the fact that minimum wage increases

have not kept up with overall wage growth. For example, from

1981–90, median hourly earnings rose by 41.6 percent, while

the minimum wage rate was unchanged. It is reasonable to

assume that many of those who would have earned minimum

wage benefited from the general rise in the market wages over

this period. The increase in earnings would bring these persons above the minimum wage, and hence, the percentage of

employed persons earning the minimum wage would likely

decrease.

 In 2000, women were more likely than men to be earning

the minimum wage or less; 4.8 percent of hourly paid women,

compared with 2.6 percent of hourly paid men. However, this

gap closed a bit over the year, as the decrease in the number of

women earning minimum wage or less was greater than the

decrease in the number of men earning minimum wage or less.

Nine out of every ten families with children under the age of Nine out of every ten families with children under the age of

18 had an employed parent in 2000. 18 had an employed parent in 2000. A greater percentage of

white families with children had at least one employed parent than had Hispanic families. In turn, a greater percentage

of Hispanic families with children had an employed parent

than had black families. In almost 2 out of every 3 marriedcouple households, both the mother and the father were employed. However, the age of the youngest child appears to

have influenced the labor market activity of the parents.93

Of the 34.3 million families with children under the age of 18

in 2000,94 73 percent (or 24.9 million) were married-couple families.95 Unmarried mothers maintained the majority of the remaining families (7.6 million), while unmarried fathers maintained 1.8 million families with children.96 Of the families maintained by an unmarried parent, the percentage maintained by

the father increased from 16 percent in 1994 to 19 percent in

2000. Among families with children under the age of 18, white

(77 percent) and Hispanic (71 percent) families were more likely

to be maintained by married couples than were black families

(43 percent). However, since 1994, the proportion of black and

Hispanic families with children that are headed by married

couples has increased slightly. For whites, that proportion

has declined slightly.

The vast majority (92.0 percent) of all families with children

under the age of 18 had at least one parent who was employed

in 2000.97 (See table 4.) Married-couple households were more

likely to have at least one employed parent than were families

maintained by an unmarried parent; 97.5 percent of marriedcouple families, compared with 75.5 percent of families maintained by the mother and 86.5 percent of families maintained

by the father. Both the mother and father worked in 7 out of

every 10 married-couple families whose youngest child was

aged 6 to 17. If the youngest child was under the age of 6, both

parents worked in slightly fewer than 6 out of every 10 marriedcouple families. The father, but not the mother, was employed

in almost 2 in 5 married-couple families with children under the

age of 6. It was relatively uncommon in 2000 for mothers of

children younger than 6 to be working and not the fathers; this

occurred in only 3.0 percent of such families.

White families with children under the age of 18 were more

likely to have an employed parent (93.7 percent) than were

Hispanic families (88.6 percent), who in turn were more likely

than black families, (82.8 percent).98 However, since 1994, the

percentage of families with at least one employed parent has

increased by 11.2 percentage points for blacks and 9.5 percentage points for Hispanics; this compares with an increase

of 3.1 percentage points for whites. In 2000, both the mother

and father worked in 67.9 percent of black married-couple families and 64.2 percent of white families with children under the

age of 18, compared with 51.3 percent of Hispanic families. In

contrast, the father worked, but not the mother in 40.1 percent

of Hispanic families; this compares with 29.9 percent of white

families and 20.2 percent of black families.

The average combined weekly hours at work for married

couples with children edged up to 65.5 hours in 2000.99 Since

1969, total weekly hours have increased by 9.3 hours (to 68.1

hours) for couples with children aged 6 to 17, by 10.3 hours (to

63.9 hours) for couples with children aged 3 to 5, and by 11.7

hours (to 60.7 hours) for couples with children under 3 years of

age. Most of the increase in average combined weekly hours

at work for married couples with children can be attributed to

an increase in the labor force participation rate among married

women, and to their trend toward year-round work.

In 1999, the latest year for which annual income data are

available, the median yearly income of families with children

under 18 years old was $48,711. 100 Married-couple families in

which both parents (and no other family members) worked had
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 23

Table 4. Families with children by employment status of parents, age of youngest child,1 and family type, annual

 averages, 1994–2000

[Levels in thousands]

 Characteristic

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

Families with children under 18

Total .......................................................... 33,189 33,544 33,980 34,129 34,232 34,340 34,340

With employed parents ........................................... 29,086 29,659 30,296 30,761 31,100 31,493 31,600

Percent of total ................................................... 87.6 88.4 89.2 90.1 90.9 91.7 92.0

...................................................................................

Married-couple families, total ...................................... 24,319 24,604 24,818 24,762 24,820 24,904 24,915

Percent with: .............................................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Father employed, not mother .................................. 28.6 28.5 28.2 28.2 28.9 29.1 29.2

Mother employed ..................................................... 67.3 67.6 68.3 68.7 68.1 68.2 68.3

Father and mother employed ............................... 62.6 63.0 63.9 64.5 64.1 64.1 64.2

Mother employed, not father ............................... 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1

Neither parent employed ......................................... 4.1 3.9 3.5 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5

...................................................................................

Families maintained by mother ................................... 7,414 7,433 7,469 7,623 7,573 7,653 7,613

Percent with employed mother ................................ 61.6 64.0 65.9 69.2 71.8 74.7 75.5

Families maintained by father ..................................... 1,455 1,507 1,692 1,745 1,839 1,782 1,812

Percent with employed father ................................. 82.4 83.7 83.7 85.8 85.5 86.3 86.5

...................................................................................

 Families with youngest child 6 to 17 ..........

Total .......................................................... 17,993 18,270 18,694 18,989 19,209 19,364 19,382

With employed parents ........................................... 16,078 16,391 16,892 17,274 17,551 17,825 17,892

Percent of total ................................................... 89.4 89.7 90.4 91.0 91.4 92.1 92.3

Married-couple families, total ...................................... 12,819 13,001 13,257 13,442 13,496 13,565 13,628

Percent with: .............................................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Father employed, not mother .................................. 22.6 22.5 21.8 21.9 22.8 22.6 22.0

Mother employed ..................................................... 73.5 73.5 74.6 74.8 74.0 74.6 75.2

Father and mother employed ............................... 67.9 68.0 69.5 69.8 69.2 69.6 70.3

Mother employed, not father ............................... 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.9 4.9

Neither parent employed ......................................... 4.0 4.0 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.8

Families maintained by mother ................................... 4,302 4,360 4,393 4,531 4,638 4,722 4,668

Percent with employed mother ................................ 70.8 72.1 73.3 74.9 77.0 79.1 79.6

Families maintained by father ..................................... 872 909 1,044 1,015 1,075 1,077 1,086

Percent with employed father ................................. 83.1 84.3 84.8 86.8 84.9 84.8 85.5

...................................................................................

 Families with youngest child under 6 ..........

Total .......................................................... 15,196 15,275 15,286 15,141 15,023 14,976 14,958

With employed parents ........................................... 13,009 13,267 13,405 13,487 13,550 13,670 13,709

Percent of total ................................................... 85.6 86.9 87.7 89.1 90.2 91.3 91.6

...................................................................................

Married-couple families, total ...................................... 11,500 11,604 11,562 11,320 11,324 11,340 11,287

Percent with: .............................................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Father employed, not mother .................................. 35.4 35.3 35.6 35.6 36.2 36.9 37.8

Mother employed ..................................................... 60.4 60.9 61.0 61.4 61.1 60.7 59.9

Father and mother employed ............................... 56.6 57.3 57.4 58.2 58.0 57.4 56.9

Mother employed, not father ............................... 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.0

Neither parent employed ......................................... 4.2 3.8 3.4 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.2

...................................................................................

Families maintained by mother ................................... 3,112 3,073 3,076 3,092 2,936 2,931 2,945

Percent with employed mother ................................ 49.0 52.5 55.2 60.9 63.6 67.4 69.1

Families maintained by father ..................................... 584 598 648 729 763 705 726

Percent with employed father ................................. 81.2 82.9 82.1 84.6 86.5 88.5 88.0

Total, all races

1

 Children are own children and include sons, daughters, step-children, and

adopted children. Not included are nieces, nephews, grandchildren, and other

related and unrelated children.

2

 Refers to families maintained by never married, widowed, divorced, or

separated persons.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey .

2

2

2

2

2

2

a median income of $62,424. In married-couple families in which

only one parent worked, median income depended on whether

it was the mother or father who worked; income for families in

which only the father worked was $42,955; this compares with

a median of $31,248 when only the mother worked. Among

families maintained by an employed, unmarried parent, median

income was $18,933 for families headed by mothers and $30,924

for families maintained by fathers.

Job growth continued across the United States as the Nation
24 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

enjoyed its tenth consecutive year of economic expansion, with

the largest gains once again occurring in the the largest gains once again occurring in the West and South. est and South.

Unemployment rates were steady or down slightly from the

fourth quarter of 1999. During 2000, more than half the States

achieved record low quarterly unemployment rates. achieved record low quarterly unemployment rates.

Unemployment. Every census region and geographic division attained its lowest quarterly unemployment rate on

record in 2000.101 (See table 5.) The most marked unemployment rate declines over the year were recorded in the

Northeast region, -0.4 percentage point, and its New England

division, -0.8 point. The unemployment rate was down slightly

in the South region, driven by declines in the West South

Central and South Atlantic divisions. The Midwest rate held

virtually steady over the year, despite a 0.4-percentage point

rise in the West North Central division. The West region’s

rate was also essentially unchanged from 1999.

The relative positions of regions and divisions with respect

to unemployment rates were largely stable over the year, owing to the lack of significant change in many parts of the country. The lowest regional unemployment rate was again reported in the Midwest (3.5 percent), which has held this distinction for each of the past 10 years. The highest incidence of

regional joblessness was observed in the West (4.5 percent)

for the ninth consecutive year. After experiencing a 0.4-percentage point drop from the previous quarter, New England

recorded the lowest jobless rate (2.4 percent) among geographic

divisions at the close of 2000. This is also the lowest quarterly

unemployment rate on record for any region or division, and it

marks the first quarter since 1989 that the lowest unemployment rate was posted by a division other than the West North

Central. Meanwhile, the Pacific division registered the highest

rate (4.8 percent) for the eighth year in a row.

Twenty-eight States established new quarterly low unemployment rates in 2000, while an additional five registered rates

that matched lows established in a previous year. Four of the

five States in the East North Central division, as well as seven

of the eight States constituting the Mountain division, achieved

new or equaled previous lows. In contrast, only 1 of the 5

States composing the Pacific division reported a new quarterly

low in 2000. (See map 1.) New low monthly jobless rates were

registered by 37 States in 2000, including all those in the East

North Central and East South Central divisions.

Employment. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in all four

census regions in 2000.102 The most rapid expansion occurred in

the West (2.9 percent) and South (2.0 percent). The Midwest had

the slowest rate of increase (0.9 percent), just slightly below that

of the Northeast (1.3 percent). These relative growth rates were

reinforced by population shifts; in general, growth in the South

and West has been buoyed by migration from the Northeast and

Midwest in recent years. Even after adjusting for differences in

population growth, however, the relative ranking of job growth

among regions remains the same. Among the nine geographic

divisions, gains ranged from 0.6 percent in the East South Central

to 3.1 percent in the Mountain division. The Pacific (2.7 percent),

West South Central (2.3 percent), and South Atlantic (2.2 percent) divisions also had above-average growth rates. The tabulation on page 25 lists nonfarm payroll employment growth in

2000 (in thousands).

Table 5. Unemployment rates for regions and divisions, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1999–2000

 2000

First Second Third Fourth

quarter quarter quarter quarter

Northeast region .............................................. 4.2 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 –0.4

New England division ................................... 3.2 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.4 –.8

Middle Atlantic division ................................ 4.6 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.3 –.3

Midwest region ................................................. 3.4 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.5 .1

East North Central division .......................... 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.9 3.7 .0

West North Central division ......................... 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.7 3.1 .4

South region .................................................... 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 –.2

South Atlantic division ................................. 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 –.2

East South Central division ......................... 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.4 .1

West South Central division ......................... 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 –.3

West region ..................................................... 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 –.1

Mountain division ......................................... 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.7 3.7 –.2

Pacific division ............................................. 4.9 4.8 5.0 5.0 4.8 –.1

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program.

Region and division

Fourth

quarter

1999

 Over-theyear

change
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 25

 Region Job growth

Number Percent

Northeast .................................. 334.1 1.3

New England. ........................ 103.5 1.5

Middle Atlantic .................... 230.6 1.3

Midwest ................................... 289.3 .9

East North Central ................ 163.4 .7

West North Central ............... 125.8 1.3

South ......................................... 890.0 2.0

South Atlantic ....................... 527.6 2.2

East South Central ................ 49.2 .6

West South Central ............... 313.2 2.3

West .......................................... 784.2 2.9

Mountain .............................. 259.2 3.1

Pacific ................................... 525.0 2.7

For most major industries, every geographic region and

division posted net job growth in 2000. (See table 6.) Exceptions were confined to the industries that have been in decline

for the past two decades or longer. Mining and manufacturing

continued to shed jobs throughout much of the United States,

with both the Midwest and Northeast regions registering a net

loss in the number of mining jobs. Employment for that industry did post small gains, however, in four geographic divisions. No region saw a reversal in the trend of declining manufacturing employment, although the West South Central and

Mountain divisions did experience small growth in the numbers of manufacturing jobs.

As in most recent years, the services industry accounted

for the greatest number of new jobs in each region and division. In fact, services fueled at least one-third of net nonfarm

employment growth in each region and geographic division,

Map 1. States attaining or equaling lowest quarterly unemployment rate in 2000, 

 seasonally adjusted

2.9

2.5

4.0

3.0

5.2 2.2

#

2.2 #

# 2.4

1.9

3.8

3.5

4.1

3.4

3.0

3.6

4.0

2.9

4.1

2.6 4.0

2.9

2.9

2.2

2.6

2.3

2.5

5.4

2.9

3.7

3.6

4.3

4.8

4.7

#

Mountain

#

West North Central

#

East

North C entral

#

Middle

Atlantic #

New England

#

South

Atlantic

#

East South Central

#

West South C entral

#

Pacific

States not attaining or equaling their lowest rates in 2000

States attaining or equaling their lowest rates in 2000

NOTE: Series low rates are provided for those States that achieved new or matched previous lows in 2000.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics Program. 
26 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

Table 6. Percentage change in total nonfarm wage and salary employment by geographic division and major industry,

 seasonally adjusted, fourth quarter 1999–fourth quarter 2000

Transportation Finance, Government

Division Mining Construction Manufacturing and Trade insurance, Services Government

utilities and real

estate

New England ........................... 4.9 6.0 –0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 2.3 1.5

Middle Atlantic ........................ –4.6 3.6 –1.2 1.1 1.3 .8 2.4 .6

East North Central .................. –3.8 1.3 –.9 1.1 .9 .7 1.4 1.4

West North Central ................. .0 .6 –.3 1.2 1.2 .9 2.5 1.3

South Atlantic ......................... –.9 2.9 –1.3 2.7 1.6 2.0 4.0 1.7

East South Central ................. –2.5 1.0 –2.2 1.2 1.0 .1 1.9 1.4

West South Central ................ 1.7 4.1 .1 3.3 2.6 2.1 2.8 1.7

Mountain ................................. .3 3.1 .9 3.0 3.2 1.1 3.9 3.6

Pacific .................................... .7 7.4 –.3 3.3 2.2 1.4 4.0 2.5

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, State and Area Current Employment Statistics Program.

while accounting for more than one-half the growth in 3 of the

4 regions and 6 of the 9 geographic divisions. Trade ranked

second in net job creation in all 4 regions and all geographic

divisions except the East South Central, where government

was the second most plentiful source of net job growth. Of the

major industries, construction exhibited the highest percentage growth rates in the West (5.8 percent) and Northeast (4.3

percent) regions, while services grew at the quickest pace of

any industry in the South (3.3 percent) and Midwest (1.7 percent). Construction grew most rapidly in 4 of the 9 geographic

divisions—most notably at the brisk pace of 7.4 percent in the

Pacific division. The services industry exhibited the fastest

growth in 4 of the 5 remaining geographic divisions.

Growth rates in excess of 3.0 percent were registered by at

least one major industry in all geographic divisions except the

East North Central, West North Central, and East South Central.

The Mountain and Pacific divisions, which experienced the fastest overall growth, showed widespread strength, as seven major

industries combined had growth rates above 3.0 percent.

THE LABOR MARKET BEGAN THE YEAR 2000 on a strong note,

though the rate of growth slowed by the end of the year.

Overall, nonfarm payroll employment increased by 1.6 percent over the year, down from its 2.2 percent growth in 1999.

Slowing came in construction and across the service-producing industries, due to a combination of factors including higher

interest rates, energy prices, and labor shortages. Mining

employment, however, benefited from the higher energy prices.

Manufacturing job losses diminished from 1999 to 2000, partly

due to the strength of IT-related manufacturing and to improvements in aircraft orders. Yet, weakening in manufacturing industries related to construction and motor vehicles contributed to a reacceleration of factory job losses in the second

half of the year.

The labor market situation improved for minority workers

in 2000. The employment-population ratio reached record

highs for both blacks and Hispanics. Also, blacks and Hispanics slightly closed the unemployment rate gap between

whites, and blacks slightly closed the earnings gap between

whites. The overall unemployment rate ended the year at 4.0

percent, the lowest rate since 1969. All four regions of the

United States had historically low unemployment rates in 2000.

Notes

ACKNOWLEDGMENT: The authors thank Thomas Krolik, an economist in the Division of Local Area Unemployment Statistics, for his

analysis of regional employment and unemployment.

1

 See the statements from the February, March, and May 2000 Federal

Open Market Committee meetings, available on the Internet at http://

www.federalreserve.gov/fomc (last accessed December 2000).

2

 At the time this article was written, fourth-quarter GDP data were

not yet available.

3

 Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2000 (Final), Bureau of

Economic Analysis, December 21, 2000. http://www.bea.doc.gov/

bea/newsrel/gdp300f.htm (last accessed in January 2001).

4

 See box on page 4 for an explanation of conceptual differences

between the Current Population Survey (CPS) and the Current Employment Statistics survey (CES).

5

 Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan indicated in mid-October

that “to date, the [general economic] spillover from the surge in oil

prices has been modest.” Remarks made at the 18th Annual Monetary

Conference: Monetary Policy in the New Economy, Cato Institute, Washington, D.C., on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov/

boarddocs/speeches/2000/200010192.htm (visited November 2000).
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 27

MC_poised_for_comeback.html (visited November 2000).

23 Data from the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments

Inventories, and Orders program, available on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/index.html (visited January

2001).

24 See for example the June, August, and September 1999 Beige

Book summaries, available on the Internet at http://

www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/BeigeBook/1999 (visited January

2001).

25 Trade data by SIC is available from the U.S. International Trade

Commission’s interactive tariff and trade dataweb, http://

dataweb.usitc.gov (visited January 2001).

26 This is a comparison of January–November 2000 retail sales with

respect to the same period in 1999. The Census Bureau produces data on

retail sales, which are available on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/econ/www/retmenu.html (visited January 2001).

27 See Key Trends in Securities Industry since 1990, Securities Industry Association, on the Internet at http://www.sia.com/publications/

html/trends_during_1990s.html (visited December 2000).

28 The U.S. Census Bureau produces these data covering U.S. imports for consumption of steel products, not seasonally adjusted, for

January through November 1999 and 2000. The data are available

online at http://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/Press-Release/

steel_index.html steel_index.html (visited January 2001).

29 Robert Guy Matthews, “Too much steel, too few remedies,” The

Wall Street Journal, Oct. 23, 2000.

30 See the PPI for blast furnaces and basic steel products, available

online at www.bls.gov/ppihome.htm (visited January 2001).

31 Import data by SIC industry comes from the U.S. International

Trade Commissions tariff and trade dataweb.

32 The comparison is made at the 2-digit level using the 1987

Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.

33 Import data by SIC industry comes from the U.S. International

Trade Commissions tariff and trade dataweb.

34 Data are from the U.S. International Trade Commission’s Interactive Tariff and Trade dataweb, and from the International Trade

Administration Office of Textiles and Apparel, on the Internet at http:/

/otexa.ita.doc.gov (January 2001).

35 Passed in May 2000, The Trade and Development Act of 2000

provided (as of October 1, 2000) eligible countries duty-free, quota-free

treatment for apparel assembled from U.S.-made fabric, yarn, and thread,

or from fabric formed in any beneficiary country from U.S.-manufactured yarns. The text is available on the Internet at http://

frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=106_cong

_public_laws&docid=f:publ200.106 (last visited December 2000).

36 Textile finishing involves operations including bleaching, dyeing,

printing (roller, screen, flock, plisse), and other mechanical finishing,

such as preshrinking, calendering, and napping. Establishments in this

industry perform finishing operations on purchased textiles or on a

commission basis. The continued job losses in this industry contrast with

the end of such losses in broadwoven fabric mills and yarn and thread

mills. See Standard Industrial Classification Manual, 1987, available on

the Internet at http://www.osha.gov/oshstats/sicser.html (visited

January 2001).

37 “The U.S. aerospace industry booked $32.4 billion in firm orders,” Aviation Week & Space Technology, Sept. 18, 2000.

6

 Over-the-year employment changes in this part of the article are

based on fourth quarter comparisons of data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, using preliminary estimates for November and

December 2000.

7

 Data from the Energy Information Administration, on the Internet

at http://www.eia.doe.gov/pub/oil_gas/petroleum/data_publications/weekly_petroleum_status_report/current/txt/table13f.txt

(visited January 2001).

8

 The merger-related job cuts by petroleum companies are cited

numerous times in the industry and financial press. See, for example,

Tracy Cox, “Economies of larger scale,” National Petroleum News,

May 1999.

9

 Christopher Palmeri, “Big Oil’s Priority: Pump up the Stock Price,”

Business Week, Sept. 25, 2000.

10 Production as measured by the Federal Reserve’s Industrial production index for petroleum products (SIC 29), on the Internet at http:/

/www.federalreserve.gov/releases/G17/table2a.htm (visited January 2001).

11 The December 1999–2000 change in gas prices are measured by

the CPI-U for gasoline.

12 Sales data are published by the Automotive News Data Center.

These data are available on the Internet at http://www.automotive

news.com (visted January 2001).

13 Mary Connelly, “High-profit SUVs pass pickups,” Automotive

News, Oct. 16, 2000.

14 Russell Grantham, “Fuel prices, other woes put trucking firms on

the skids,” The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Sept. 30, 2000; Chern Yeh

Kwok, “Trucking Industry Hit Hard by Record-High Gas Prices,” St.

Louis Post-Dispatch, Sept. 19, 2000. Truck tonnage data is published in

the American Trucking Association’s Monthly Truck Tonnage Report.

15 See, for example, “A surprise in January: Class 8 sales rise again,”

Automotive News, Feb. 28, 2000.

16 Sales data refer to Class 8 trucks and are published by Automotive

News.

17 Truck tractor manufacturing is classified within part of motor

vehicle assembly (SIC 3711) in the Standard Industrial Classification

Manual, 1987.

18 See the statements from the February, March, and May 2000

Federal Open Market Committee meetings, available on the Internet at

http://www.federalreserve.gov/fomc (visited January 2001).

19 The value of construction put-in-place statistics are produced by

the U.S. Census Bureau; they are available on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html (visited January 2001).

20 The 2000 Federal Reserve Beige Book summaries consistently

reported a softening in residential construction, but did not note any

waning in commercial building until later in the year. These reports are

available on the Internet at http://www.federalreserve.gov/FOMC/

BeigeBook/2000 (visited January 2001).

21 Data produced by the Mortgage Bankers Association of America

and published online at http://www.mbaa.org/marketdata (visited

January 2001).

22 Sheila Muto, “Prefab Home Makers See Sales Slowdown—Buyers

Tend to Be First to Feel Effects of Tighter Credit,” The Wall Street

Journal, May 18, 2000; and “Manufactured Housing Industry Begins to

Rebuild Itself,” report by the Manufactured Housing Institute, available

on the Internet at http://www.manufacturedhousing.org/
28 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

38 Data on unfilled orders for aircraft, missiles, space vehicles and

parts are from the U.S. Census Bureau, Manufacturers’ Shipments, Inventories, and Orders program, available on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/indicator/www/m3/index.html (visited January

2001).

39 Vince Galloro, “Embracing PPS,” Modern Healthcare, Sept. 25,

2000, p. 14.

40 The text of the Balanced Budget Refinement Act of 1999 is available online at http://www.hcfa.gov/regs/bbra (last visited January 2001).

41 Richard Haugh, “A long-awaited (yet dreaded) debut,” Hospitals

& Health Networks, Sept. 2000, p. 16.

Unlike the prior cost-based system, the outpatient prospective payment system pays hospitals set amounts for about 700 procedure groups.

Reimbursements are calculated using national average historical costs

with an adjustment for regional wage differences. See, for example, Ann

Saphir, “New PPS brings mixed blessing,” Modern Healthcare, June 26,

2000, pp. 86–88.

42 Laurie McGinley, “Hospitals feel sting of cuts from insurers,” The

Wall Street Journal, Mar. 16, 2000, p. B2.

43 Mary Chris Jaklevic, “Positive outlook for not-for-profits,”

Modern Healthcare, Oct. 30, 2000, p. 2; and Barbara Kirchheimer,

“Profits up for four hospital chains,” Modern Healthcare, Oct. 30,

2000, p. 20.

44 Both the Job Partnership Training Act and the Workforce Investment Act are available on the Internet at http://wdr.doleta.gov/

readroom/legislation (last visited January 2001).

45 Brian Sharp, “Onestop job shopping progresses, slowly,” Gannett

News Service, June 30, 2000. Alice Lipowicz, “City slapped over job

training program: Funds delayed, critics charge city just doesn’t care,”

Crain’s New York Business, Aug. 21, 2000.

46 Carlos Tejada, “Fewer youths get a shot at summertime jobs

programs,” The Wall Street Journal, June 27, 2000.

47 See, for example, Wes Basel, “No More Desks to Conquer,” The

Dismal Scientist, http://www.dismal.com/todays_econte_120600_

2.asp (visited December 2000).

48 This measure is a ratio of 3-month moving average bookings to

3-month moving average shipments for the North American semiconductor equipment industry. It is produced by Semiconductor Equipment

and Materials International and Arthur Andersen and is published online

at http://www.semi.org/web/wmktstats.nsf (visited January 2001).

49 Output per hour in Computer and office equipment surged by 875

percent between 1990 and 1998; data are from the Bureau of Labor

Statistics Industry Labor Productivity program, http://www.bls.gov/

iprhome.htm (visited January 2001).

50 Historical data from the Federal Reserve’s Industrial Production

and Capacity Utilization program, http://www.federalreserve.gov/

releases/G17 (visited January 2001).

51 Although it seems intuitively true that employment growth would

precede production capacity growth, this relationship does not appear

as consistently for some other manufacturing industries as it does for

semiconductors.

52 Wes Basel, “IT Wags the Dog,” The Dismal Scientist, http://

www.dismal.com/todays_econ/te_080200.asp. .dismal.com/todays_econ/te_080200.asp.

53 This is a comparison of January–November 2000 retail sales,

with respect to the same period in 1999. The Census Bureau produces

data on retail sales, which are available on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/econ/www/retmenu.html (visited January 2001).

54 That is one strategy that department stores have used to try to

recover market share from specialty retailers. Employment in department stores maintained its long-term downward march last year, with

5,000 jobs dropping off payrolls. See, for example, Evan Ramstad and

Ann Zimmerman, The Next Big Holiday Thing(s)—Anxious Retailers

Await Walmart Promotion,” The Wall Street Journal, Oct. 5, 2000.

55 Those online sales operations are classified within wholesale

trade.

56 Each Federal Reserve Beige Book in 2000 cited reports of labor

shortages, particularly of “qualified workers.”

57 The payroll survey cannot provide direct evidence because it

measures the number of payroll positions that firms have filled, but

not how many positions firms would like to fill and cannot.

58 The comparison is at the 2-digit SIC level.

59 The American Staffing Association publishes quarterly data on

sales of temporary help services, available online at http://

www.natss.org/staffstats/qtrlytrends.htm (visited January 2001).

60 Jianfeng Pei, “Labor shortage restrains temporary-staffing

firms,” Purchasing, May 18, 2000.

61 See, for example, Timothy W. Brogan, “Thriving in a Dwindling Pool of Available Workers,” Staffing Success, May-June 2000; it

is also available on the Internet at http://www.natss.org/staffstats/

analysis.htm (visited November 2000).

62 Staffing Industry Analysts, “Staffing Industry Assisted and Restrained by Tight Job Market,” press release, May 17, 2000, available

online at http://www.sireport.com/pressreleases/forecastrelease. elease.

html (visited December 2000).

63 David B. Oppendahl, “Understanding the (relative) fall and rise

of construction wages,” Chicago Fed Letter, July 2000.

64 The manufacturing workweek in December may have been affected

by winter storms in the Midwest, and so, part of its December decline from

41.2 hours to 40.4 hours likely reflects that weather impact.

65 Ron L. Hetrick, “Analyzing the recent upward surge in overtime

hours,” Monthly Labor Review, February 2000, pp. 30–33.

66 The data in this section of the article are annual averages.

67 Currently looking refers to job search activity conducted within

the 4 weeks preceding the survey. Had these persons been looking

within that period, they would have been counted as unemployed

rather than not in the labor force.

68 An analysis of data on persons not in the labor force, but who

indicated that they want a job, reveals that their labor market attachment is generally weak. Specifically, Monica Castillo (“Persons outside the labor force who want a job,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1998,

pp. 34–42) found that 41 percent of persons not in the labor force in

1994 who said they wanted a job were actually in the labor force a year

later. The percentage was slightly higher for marginally attached workers

(48 percent). For discouraged workers, 45 percent were in the labor

force in 1995.

69 A redesigned Current Population Survey was introduced in 1994.

Some of the categories of persons not in the labor force were subject to

major changes in definition. As a result, historical comparisons for

these categories are only possible back to 1994.

70 The repeal of the Social Security “earnings test” came about with
 Monthly Labor Review February 2001 29

the Senior Citizens’ Freedom to Work Act of 2000. For more information, see the Social Security Legislative Bulletin (The President Signs the

“Senior Citizens’ Freedom to Work Act of 2000"), on the Internet at

http://www.ssa.gov/legislation/legis_bulletin_040700.html .ssa.gov/legislation/legis_bulletin_040700.html (visited

November 2000).

71 A May 1997 supplement to the Current Population Survey on

reasons for working more than one job showed that 4 out of every 10

multiple jobholders did so to meet regular household expenses or to pay

off debts. For more information, see “When one job is not enough,”

ISSUES in Labor Statistics, August 2000.

72 In fact, interest in hiring foreign workers has increased, notably in

sectors, such as high-tech, where companies report difficulty in finding

qualified workers. One result is the recent signing into law of a bill that

would increase the number of H-1B visas issued to skilled technology

workers from abroad.

73 Information on the labor force status of the foreign-born are

readily available from the Current Population Survey going back to

1996.

74 The employment-population ratio increased with the number of

years the foreign-born spent in the United States, peaking at 72.2 percent in 2000 for persons who immigrated between 1975–84.

75 To calculate the change in employment that is due to population

growth, the employment-to-population ratio for the first time period is

applied to the population for the second period, and the employment

level derived is compared with the employment level for the first period. To calculate the change in employment due to shifts in the proportion of the population among the separate labor force categories, multiply the population estimate for the second period by the difference in

the employment-population ratios for the two periods. This change

describes net change between labor force categories, not the gross flows

between categories.

76 The data presented in this section of the article are seasonally

adjusted fourth quarter figures, and over-the-year changes are based on

fourth-quarter 1999 to fourth-quarter 2000 comparisons, unless otherwise noted.

77 Beginning in January 2000, the population controls used in the

CPS were revised to reflect newly updated information on immigration

and an upward revision in the number of deaths. As a result, the civilian

noninstitutional population 16 years and older was lowered by about

215,000. The labor force level decreased by about 125,000 and employment declined by 120,000. Overall and subgroup unemployment

rates and other percentages of labor market participation were not

significantly affected. Over-the-year changes in this article, which are

generally based on fourth-quarter-1999 to fourth-quarter-2000 comparisons, have been adjusted for the effects of these revised population

controls, unless otherwise noted.

78 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined

that the trough of the recession in the early 1990s occurred in March

1991; hence, the expansion of the 1990s officially began in March

1991. The NBER designation will be used in this article. However, it

should be noted that many labor market indicators showed weaknesses

well into 1992. The unemployment rate, for example, did not peak until

June 1992.

79 Data on employment by occupation are not seasonally adjusted.

80 Historical data on the employment-population ratio are available

beginning in 1954 for whites, 1972 for blacks, and 1973 for Hispanics.

81 Historical data on unemployment are available beginning in 1954

for whites, 1972 for blacks, and 1973 for Hispanics.

82 Over-the-year changes in employment status by educational attainment have not been adjusted to reflect revised population controls

because adjustment factors were not available.

83 The data presented on full-time and part-time schedules are annual averages.

84 Data for 1994 and subsequent years are not directly comparable

with data for 1993 and earlier years because of the introduction of a

major redesign of the Current Population Survey.

85 Data on class-of-worker status are not seasonally adjusted. The

over-the-year changes have not been adjusted to reflect revised population controls because adjustment factors were not available for all of the

class-of-worker categories.

86 Self-employed persons are those who work for profit or fees in

their own businesses, professions, trades, or farms. Only the unincorporated self-employed are included in the self-employed category. Persons

with incorporated businesses are classified as wage and salary workers

because they are paid employees of a corporation.

87 Persons whose businesses are incorporated are technically wage

and salary workers because they are paid employees of a corporation.

88 Data on employment by occupation are not seasonally adjusted.

89 Median earnings figures indicate the value that divides the earnings distribution into two equal parts, one part having values above the

median and the other having values below the median. Earnings are

before taxes and other deductions, and include any overtime pay, commissions, or tips usually received (at the main job in the case of multiple

jobholders). Data refer to wage and salary workers (excluding all selfemployed persons regardless of whether or not their businesses were

incorporated) who usually work full time on their sole or primary job.

90 The data presented in this part of the article are annual averages,

and changes are based on a comparison of 1999 and 2000 figures. Overthe-year changes in median weekly earnings were not adjusted for revised population controls because adjustment factors were not available.

91 This aggregate ratio does not control for differences in many

variables that may affect earnings. For more information on trends in

the earnings of women, see Mary Bowler, “Women’s earnings: an overview,” Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp. 13–21.

92 The prevailing Federal minimum wage was $5.15 in 2000 and

$3.35 in 1981.

93 The Current Population Survey tabulates information on the

labor market activity of all household members aged 16 and older. However, this section looks at the employment status of the parents only.

94 Children are own children and include sons, daughters, stepchildren, and adopted children. Not included are nieces, nephews, grandchildren, and other related and unrelated children.

95 The data on the labor force status of parents in families are annual

averages. The Current Population Survey has information on family

labor force status readily available on an annual average basis going back

to 1994. Similar data are available from the March supplement to the

CPS; these data are available going back to 1975. The annual average data

were used in this article because, by definition, they are based on 12

months of data rather than 1, and hence, provide stronger estimates.

96 In the Current Population Survey, families maintained by the

mother or by the father refer to parents never married, widowed, divorced, or separated.

97 This represents employment in a typical week in 2000. It is
30 Monthly Labor Review February 2001

The Job Market in 2000

expected that the percentage of families in which at least one parent

had work experience in 2000 (worked at least some time during the

year) would be higher. Indeed, the March 2000 Current Population

Survey data on work experience in the prior year show that about 95

percent of families with children had at least one parent with work

experience in 1999.

98 A family is considered to have the same race and ethnicity as the

householder. The “householder” refers to the person (or one of the

people) in whose name the housing unit is owned or rented (maintained) or, if there is no such person, any adult member, excluding

roomers, boarders, or paid employees. If the house is owned or rented

jointly by a married couple, the householder may be either the husband

or the wife. The person designated as the householder is the “reference

person” to whom the relationship of all other household members, if

any, is recorded.

99 The data on average combined weekly hours at work are unpublished and were specially tabulated from the CPS for this article.

100 Information on weekly earnings for families is not readily available from the Current Population Survey; however, data on family

income are tabulated from the March supplements to the CPS by the

Bureau of the Census. Though information on median income for families in 2000 is not yet available, the March 2000 supplement provides

information pertaining to income in 1999.

101 The four regions and nine divisions are composed of the following States and the District of Columbia: Northeast: New England

division—Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode

Island, Vermont; Middle Atlantic division—New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania; South: South Atlantic division—Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia; East South Central division—Alabama, Kentucky,

Mississippi, Tennessee; West South Central division—Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas; Midwest: East North Central division—Illinois,

Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin; West North Central division—Iowa,

Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota;

West: Mountain division—Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming; Pacific division—Alaska, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.

With the exception of California, State monthly unemployment

rate series began in January of 1978. The California series began in

January of 1980. Hence, quarterly unemployment rate series for the

West region and the Pacific division date from the first quarter of

1980, while series for all other regions and divisions date from the first

quarter of 1978.

102 Employment estimates for census regions and divisions are the

sum of State estimates and are not intended to add to national totals.

In addition, they are subject to revision resulting from re-estimation

and updated seasonal adjustment effective with the release of January

2001 data.