Summary 09-03 / March 2009 • U.S. Department of Labor • U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Holiday Season Hiring in Retail Trade

Every year, certain industries experience substantial seasonal variations 

in their business activity. In 

other words, they have strong 

seasonal hiring and laying off 

patterns. During these periods, 

which can last for months, affected industries buildup the 

number of employees, to accommodate the increased seasonal activity. One of the most 

notable buildup periods occurs 

in retail trade for the winter 

holiday season, which falls in 

the last 3 months of the year. 

Knowing that this seasonal activity takes place each year, a 

“buildup” table can be used to 

help gauge the level of seasonal 

hiring compared with previous 

years and also can be used to 

explain trends in employment 

after seasonal adjustment. 

Traditionally, employment 

grows substantially during the 

holiday season in eight retail 

industries.

- Furniture and home furnishing stores

- Electronics and appliance 

stores

- Health and personal care 

stores

- Clothing and clothing accessory stores

- Sporting goods, hobby, 

book, and music stores

- General merchandise stores

- Miscellaneous store retailers (e.g., florists, office supply stores, gift shops, and 

pet shops)

- Nonstore retailers (e.g., 

electronic shopping and 

mail-order houses, vending 

machine operators, and direct store establishments)

Table 1 shows employment 

changes in these selected retail 

industries, October through 

December, for each year since 

2003. A buildup table is a useful tool for analyzing seasonal 

hiring because weakness in 

one month’s employment may 

be compensated for during a 

different month of the buildup 

season. Other calendar issues 

play a role in the monthly 

employment trends also. For 

example, there are either 4 or 

5 weeks between the Current 

Employment Statistics (CES) 

reference periods which is the 

pay period that includes the 

12th of the month. The difference of 1 week can result 

in stronger hiring during a 

buildup season because the 5th 

week allows for more time to 

hire. The 4-to-5 week effect is 

factored into the CES seasonal 

adjustment method.

When Black Friday1 falls 

1 week before the reference 

week, there are 5 weeks between the October and November reference periods. Given 

this timing, retailers often will 

have brought more new hires 

onto the payrolls than if there 

had been only 4 weeks between 

surveys and 2 weeks before the 

holiday shopping kicked off. 

This situation occurred in 2006 

and 2007, and seasonal hiring 

was strong relative to other 

years. In 2008, there were 4 

weeks between the October and 

November reference periods 

and an extra week before the 

start of the holiday shopping 

season. November seasonal 

hiring was weak, relative to the 

average hiring of 386,000 and 

even well below years with 

only 4 weeks between surveys, 

due to overall weakness in the 

economy. After seasonal adjustment, retail employment in 

the selected industries fell by 

51,000. 

The employment gain of 

520,000 for the entire holiday 

season was approximately 

three-fourths of the average 

hiring over the previous 5 

years. This increase represents 

6.2 percent of September employment, compared with an 

average of 8.7 percent. As 

a result of the weak holiday 

buildup, seasonally adjusted 

employment fell by 135,000 in 

the selected retail industries. 

After the holiday hiring is 

completed in December, there 

is a 2-month period where 

employers release those employees hired specifically for 

the holiday shopping season. 

A layoff table, similar to the 

buildup table, can be created 

to analyze the seasonal decrease. Typically, the retail 

layoff is slightly larger in size 

than the total holiday buildup; 

for example, the buildup in 

2007 was 769,000; and the 

layoff was 826,000. This pattern varies little over time, regardless of the actual size of 

the buildup.

In January 2009, there were 

5 weeks between the December 

and January reference weeks, 

giving employers more time 

to reduce their payrolls. However, even with a longer time 

frame, the January layoff was 

much greater than the average, 

including the 2003–04 January 

layoff, which also had 5 weeks 

between surveys. In just the 

first month of the holiday layoff season, employers laid off 

114 percent of the total number 

hired for the holiday buildup. In 

February, 189,000 more workers were laid off, representing 

a total layoff of 150 percent 

of the holiday buildup in retail 

trade. A layoff of greater than 

100 percent of the buildup implies employers laid off more 

than just the staff hired for the 

holiday season. As a result of 

the strong layoff, seasonally 

adjusted employment fell by 

24,000 in the selected holiday 

retail industries.

This Issues paper was prepared by Stephen Crestol, an 

economist in the Division of 

Current Employment Statistics, Office of Employment 

and Unemployment Statistics, 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC 20212. 

1

 Black Friday is the day after 

Thanksgiving. This is the day when 

many retailers go from losses during 

the year (red) into a profit (black).
 

Table 2. Holiday season employment layoff in retail trade 

(unadjusted, in thousands)

 Total Percent Layoff as

Year holiday holiday Jan. Feb. Total layoff percent of

 buildup buildup buildup

2004 650 8.1 -551* -157* -708 109

2005 710 8.7 -558* -149* -706 100 

2006 710 8.5 -588* -183* -771 109

2007 754 9.1 -530* -167* -696 92

2008 769 9.0 -601* -225* -826 107

Average 719 8.7 -566* -176* -742 103

2009 520 6.2 -592* -189* -781 150

* Represents 5 weeks between reference periods 

Note: Includes employment only from furniture and home furnishings stores, electronics and appliance stores, health 

and personal care stores, clothing and clothing accessories stores, sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores, 

general merchandise stores, miscellaneous store retailers, and nonstore retailers 

	 	 	 	 	 	 	

	 	 	 	 	 	 	 Table 3. Seasonally adjusted employment changes in retail holiday industries, 2008–2009

(in thousands) 

Oct.-Dec. 2008 Jan.-Feb. 2009 

holiday buildup holiday layoff

Furniture and home furnishings stores -24 -16

Electronics and appliance stores -9 4

Health and personal care stores -8 -5

Clothing and clothing accessories stores -30 1

Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores -17 -13

General merchandise stores -17 17

Miscellaneous store retailers -19 -8

Nonstore retailers -12 -5

Total change -135 -24

Table 1. Holiday season employment buildup in selected retail industries

(unadjusted, in thousands)

 Total Percent 

Year Sept. level Oct. Nov. Dec. holiday holiday 

 buildup buildup

2003 8058 143* 303* 204* 650 8.1

2004 8160 152* 359* 199* 710 8.7

2005 8330 119* 390* 201* 710 8.5

2006 8309 150* 419* 186* 754 9.1

2007 8508 108* 458* 202* 769 9.0

Average 8273 134* 386* 198* 719 8.7

2008 8449 94* 274* 153* 520 6.2 

 

* Represents 5 weeks between reference periods 

 

NOTE: Includes employment only from furniture and home furnishings stores, electronics and appliance 

stores, health and personal care stores, clothing and clothing accessories stores, sporting goods, hobby, book, 

and music stores, general merchandise stores, miscellaneous store retailers, and nonstore retailers 

 

 

For additional information, 

call (202) 691-5472 or e-mail 

crestol.steve@bls.gov.

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to sensory-impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 

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report is in the public domain 

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