[Federal Register Volume 82, Number 162 (Wednesday, August 23, 2017)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 39977-39979]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2017-17820]


=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

50 CFR Part 660

[Docket No. 141222999-7741-01]
RIN 0648-BE77


Fisheries Off West Coast States; Coastal Pelagic Species 
Fisheries Management Plan; Adjustments to the Pacific Sardine Harvest 
Guideline Control Rule

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Proposed rule.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: Under the framework procedures of the Coastal Pelagic Species 
(CPS) Fishery Management Plan (FMP), NMFS proposes to revise the 
FRACTION parameter of the Pacific sardine harvest guideline (HG) 
control rule to use a 3-year average of ocean temperature data from the 
California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries Investigations (CalCOFI) 
survey that takes place off southern and central California, rather 
than temperatures measured from the end of the Scripps Institution of 
Oceanography (SIO) Pier, and revise the upper bound of fraction from 15 
percent to 20 percent. These changes are intended to better reflect the 
best available science and to better conserve and manage the northern 
subpopulation of Pacific sardine off the U.S. West Coast managed under 
the CPS FMP.

DATES: Comments must be received by September 22, 2017.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments on this document identified by NOAA-
NMFS-2015-0044 by any of the following methods:
    <bullet> Electronic Submissions: Submit all electronic public 
comments via the Federal e-Rulemaking Portal. Go to 
www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=NOAA-NMFS-2015-0044, click the 
``Comment Now!'' icon, complete the required fields, and enter or 
attach your comments.
    <bullet> Mail: Submit written comments to Barry A. Thom, Regional 
Administrator, West Coast Region, NMFS, 7600 Sand Point Way NE., 
Seattle, WA 98115-0070; Attn: Joshua Lindsay.
    Instructions: Comments must be submitted by one of the above 
methods to ensure that the comments are received, documented, and 
considered by NMFS. Comments sent by any other method, to any other 
address or individual, or received after the end of the comment period, 
may not be considered by NMFS. All comments received are a part of the 
public record and will generally be posted for public viewing on 
www.regulations.gov without change. All personal identifying 
information (e.g., name, address, etc.), confidential business 
information, or otherwise sensitive information submitted voluntarily 
by the sender will be publicly accessible. Do not submit confidential 
business information, or otherwise sensitive or protected information. 
NMFS will accept anonymous comments (enter ``N/A'' in the required 
fields if you wish to remain anonymous). Attachments to electronic 
comments will be accepted in Microsoft Word, Excel, or Adobe PDF file 
formats only.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Joshua Lindsay, West Coast Region, 
NMFS, (562) 980-4034.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The HG control rule, in conjunction with the 
overfishing limit (OFL) and acceptable biological catch (ABC) control 
rules in the FMP, are used to set annual harvest levels for the 
northern subpopulation of Pacific sardine (hereafter, simply Pacific 
sardine), in accordance with the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation 
and Management Act, 16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq. The HG formula for Pacific 
sardine is HG = [(Biomass-CUTOFF) * FRACTION * DISTRIBUTION] and was 
first established by Amendment 8 to the CPS FMP. FRACTION, expressed as 
a percentage, is dependent on oceanographic conditions, specifically 
ocean temperature, and is a proxy for E<INF>MSY</INF> (the exploitation 
rate for deterministic equilibrium maximum sustainable yield (MSY)). 
The value used for FRACTION in the control rule is calculated annually 
and varies with water temperature (a higher fraction for warmer ocean 
temperatures and a lower fraction for cooler temperatures). The 
rationale for setting FRACTION in the HG in this manner is that the 
productivity of the sardine stock is correlated to ocean temperatures, 
with sardines being more productive during times of higher ocean 
temperatures. FRACTION under the FMP is currently bounded between 5 and 
15 percent, meaning that although the calculated E<INF>MSY</INF> 
estimate for any given year may be higher or lower, FRACTION is bounded 
and is never allowed to be higher than 15 percent or lower than 5 
percent.
    Since 1999, the formula prescribed in the FMP used for calculating 
FRACTION has been based on an average 3-year sea surface temperature 
measured at the SIO Pier and an estimate of the relationship between 
Pacific sardine E<INF>MSY</INF> and ocean temperatures of:

FRACTION = 0.248649805 T\2\-8.190043975 T + 67.4558326

where T is the average three season sea surface temperature at SIO 
during the three preceding seasons.
    In 2010, new research by scientists at the NMFS Southwest Fisheries 
Science Center (SWFSC) called into question the original relationship 
between SIO temperature and productivity used in the analysis to 
establish the existing FRACTION parameter and control rule in the FMP. 
In February 2013, the Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) and 
the SWFSC convened a workshop to further examine the temperature-
recruitment relationship used to inform FRACTION. The scientists at 
this workshop found that although a temperature-recruitment correlation 
based on SIO was still scientifically valid, a temperature index based 
on data from the California Cooperative Oceanic Fisheries 
Investigations (CalCOFI) survey (a compilation of temperatures measured 
throughout the southern California bight, from now on referred to as 
CalCOFI index) explained a more significant amount of sardine 
recruitment variability and success than the SIO index and was 
generally better aligned with ocean temperatures in the primary habitat 
of Pacific sardine (PFMC 2013).
    Based on this new information, and a recommendation from their 
Scientific and Statistical Committee (SSC) that the CalCOFI index 
represented the best available science for Pacific sardine management, 
the Council adopted the use of the CalCOFI temperature index and a new 
temperature-recruitment relationship as follows:

    E<INF>MSY</INF>= 0.248649805 T\2\-8.190043975 T + 67.4558326

This was adopted at their March 2014 meeting for use in the Pacific 
sardine OFL and ABC calculations and the Council stated their intent to 
also use the CalCOFI index in the calculation of

[[Page 39978]]

the HG control rule, pending analysis on the impact of that change to 
the operation of the HG rule.
    As a result of further analyses presented to the Council on the use 
of the CalCOFI index to calculate FRACTION, the Council, at their 
November 2014 meeting, adopted and recommended to NMFS, and NMFS is 
proposing through this action, that the HG control rule be modified in 
the FMP so that the CalCOFI index and revised E<INF>MSY</INF> formula 
above be used in the calculation of the FRACTION. Additionally, the 
Council recommended, and NMFS is proposing through this action, that 
the upper bound on FRACTION is revised from 15 percent to 20 percent. 
These changes better reflect best available science as well as provide 
for better alignment with the existing function of the current HG rule 
by providing an improved representation of the CalCOFI temperature data 
and new knowledge regarding the productivity of Pacific sardine.
    Adjusting the upper bound of FRACTION from 15 percent to 20 percent 
is an attempt to scale the bounds on FRACTION to better reflect the 
mid-range of actual temperature readings observed in the CalCOFI data, 
thereby aligning the CalCOFI temperatures and the new temperature-
E<INF>MSY</INF> relationship in a manner more similar to the old SIO-
based relationship and to where the 5 to 15 percent range fell relative 
to typical SIO temperatures, although still on the lower range. This 
distinction can be seen by looking at the median temperature and 
corresponding E<INF>MSY</INF> for that temperature for both SIO and 
CalCOFI. The median of the observed SIO temperatures (16.98 degrees 
Celsius) equates to an E<INF>MSY</INF> of 7 percent; thereby falling 
within the range of the FRACTION bounds of 5 to 15 percent. The median 
of the observed CalCOFI temperatures (15.72 degrees Celsius) however 
equates to an E<INF>MSY</INF> of 18 percent, which is above an upper 
FRACTION bound of 15 percent. Therefore, increasing the upper bound of 
FRACTION to 20 percent allows FRACTION to be more in line with typical 
CalCOFI temperatures. By keeping the upper bound of FRACTION at 15 
percent while using the new temperature index and E<INF>MSY</INF> 
relationship, FRACTION would rarely vary up or down because it would be 
bounded in the lower range of typical CalCOFI temperatures. This change 
to the upper bound of FRACTION is an attempt to maintain consistency 
with the original intent of the HG under the CPS FMP, which was to have 
a FRACTION parameter that varied based on the environmental conditions 
(i.e. temperature) experienced by the stock and to permit higher 
harvest rates to take advantage of periods when biomass and 
productivity are high, but still restrict harvest when biomass and 
productivity are low.
    Additionally this revision mirrors an increase in the modeled 
stochastic estimate of MSY for Pacific sardine from 0.12 during the 
analysis for Amendment 8 to 0.18 (PFMC 1999 and PFMC 2014; Hurtado-
Ferro and A. E. Punt.) when based on the updated analysis and the new 
simulation model developed to examine this action (Hurtado-Ferro and 
Punt 2013). This increase in the modeled stochastic MSY estimate 
reflects a statistically identified increase in the understanding of 
sardine productivity and the ability of the stock to withstand a higher 
average fishing rate. Additionally, results from the simulation model 
developed to examine the risks associated with the control rule and an 
assessment of changing to a new temperature recruit index showed that 
bounding FRACTION at 15 percent compared to 20 percent did not provide 
substantial benefits to the sardine stock from a long-term population 
perspective or benefits to the ecosystem with regards to the amount of 
sardine left unharvested as potential forage for predators. However, 
increasing the upper bound to 20 percent is expected to result in a 
higher yield to the fishery over the long term.

Classification

    Pursuant to section 304(b)(1)(A) of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery 
Conservation and Management Act, the NMFS Assistant Administrator has 
determined that this proposed rule is consistent with the CPS FMP, 
other provisions of the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and 
Management Act, and other applicable law, subject to further 
consideration after public comment.
    This proposed rule has been determined to be not significant for 
purposes of Executive Order 12866.
    This proposed rule is not expected to be an EO 13771 regulatory 
action because this proposed rule is not significant under EO 12866.
    The Chief Counsel for Regulation of the Department of Commerce 
certified to the Chief Counsel for Advocacy of the Small Business 
Administration that this proposed rule, if adopted, would not have a 
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities, 
for the following reasons:
    The purpose of this rule is to use the best available science for 
calculating the FRACTION parameter in the Pacific sardine HG control 
rule under the CPS FMP and this is expected to result, over the long 
term, in harvest guidelines of a similar level to the status quo, 
except the sardine stock should be more robust, over the long term, 
because the control rule would use better science. This is accomplished 
by incorporating the use of a new temperature index into the 
calculation that more accurately tracks sardine productivity and by 
revising the upper FRACTION bound to 20 percent.
    For RFA purposes only, NMFS has established a small business size 
standard for businesses, including their affiliates, whose primary 
industry is commercial fishing (see 50 CFR 200.2). A business primarily 
engaged in commercial fishing (NAICS code 11411) is classified as a 
small business if it is independently owned and operated, is not 
dominant in its field of operation (including its affiliates), and has 
combined annual receipts not in excess of $11 million for all its 
affiliated operations worldwide.
    The small entities that would be affected by the proposed action 
are the vessels that harvest Pacific sardine as part of the West Coast 
CPS finfish fleet and are all considered small businesses under the 
above size standards. In 2014, there were approximately 81 vessels 
permitted to operate in the directed sardine fishery component of the 
CPS fishery off the U.S. West Coast: 58 vessels in the Federal CPS 
limited entry fishery off California (south of 39[deg] N. lat.), and a 
combined 23 vessels in Oregon and Washington's state Pacific sardine 
fisheries. The average annual per vessel revenue in 2014 for the West 
Coast CPS finfish fleet was well below $20.5 million; therefore, all of 
these vessels are considered small businesses under the RFA.
    The proposed action is not expected to have direct or indirect 
socioeconomic impacts, and, therefore, it is not expected to reduce 
profitability of the affected entities. This action does not establish 
specific harvest limits and does not change the general function of the 
existing control rule, both of which might influence ex-vessel revenue 
and personal income. Instead, the proposed action only updates the 
environmental indicator underlying the FRACTION parameter of the HG 
control rule and modifies the control rule to reflect this new 
information. In general, the revised harvest control rule encompassing 
these changes is expected to produce similar quotas as the existing 
control rule.
    The CPS FMP and its implementing regulations require NMFS to 
calculate annual harvest levels by applying the harvest control rule 
formulas, such as the HG rule, to the current stock

[[Page 39979]]

biomass estimate. Therefore, if the estimated biomass decreases or 
increases from one year to the next, so do the applicable quotas. Under 
the proposed action, harvest levels will continue to vary from year to 
year, primarily driven by changes in sardine productivity and therefore 
changes in biomass. The proposed change to the temperature index that 
dictates the FRACTION parameter in the HG control rule simply ensures 
that the best available science is used when calculating the HG for 
Pacific sardine. This rule would also adjust the upper bound of 
FRACTION from 15 percent to 20 percent. The reason for this change is 
that a FRACTION that ranges from 5 percent to 20 percent better 
reflects the mid-range of actual measured temperatures and more closely 
aligns with CalCOFI temperatures in a manner similar to where the 5 to 
15 percent range fell, relative to the existing temperature index.
    Based on the analysis above, the proposed action, if adopted, will 
not have a significant economic impact on a substantial number of these 
small entities. As a result, an Initial Regulatory Flexibility Analysis 
is not required, and none has been prepared.

References Cited

    The complete citations for the references cited in this document 
can be obtained by contacting NMFS (see ADDRESSES and FOR FURTHER 
INFORMATION CONTACT).

    Authority:  16 U.S.C. 1801 et seq.

    Dated: August 17, 2017.
Samuel D. Rauch, III,
Deputy Assistant Administrator for Regulatory Programs, National Marine 
Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 2017-17820 Filed 8-22-17; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-22-P