TEXT

 
 
 
                                       FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.
                                       FRIDAY, JANUARY 19, 1996
 
 
 
           ___________________________________________________________
           Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
           press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
           understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
           Eastern time.  ____________________________________________
 
 
 
                                   Statement of
 
                               Katharine G. Abraham
                                   Commissioner
                            Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
                                 January 19, 1996
 
 
 
 
                Good morning.  I am very pleased to be here to comment
 
           on the December 1995 employment and unemployment data that
 
           were released this morning.  The release of these data comes
 
           two weeks later than originally scheduled because the recent
 
           Federal government shutdown affected both the Bureau of
 
           Labor Statistics (BLS) and the Bureau of the Census, which
 
           conducts our household survey.  This is the first time since
 
           1961, when BLS began announcing its scheduled release dates
 
           in advance, that the report on employment and unemployment
 
           has been delayed.  It is only thanks to the hard work of
 
           many BLS and Census Bureau staff members that we are able to
 
           release these data so soon after the reopening of the
 
           government.
 
                Payroll employment rose by 151,000 in December, boosted
 
           by the return of some aircraft workers who had been on
 
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           strike.  The overall increase, however, should be
 
           interpreted with some caution.  In addition to the effects
 
           of changing economic conditions, the payroll data may have
 
           been affected by the vagaries of the calendar combined with
 
           the strong seasonal swings in employment in certain
 
           industries.  On balance, these special effects probably led
 
           to the reported month-to-month change between November and
 
           December being somewhat understated.
 
                The largest employment increase occurred in the
 
           services industry, with a gain of 69,000 jobs.  This
 
           increase was below the 1995 monthly average, but may have
 
           been underestimated due to quirks in seasonal adjustment
 
           affecting some components of the industry.  Business
 
           services gained 30,000 jobs in December; employment in its
 
           personnel supply services component was flat for the third
 
           straight month.  Amusement and recreation services usually
 
           gain jobs between November and December as ski resorts and
 
           other winter sports facilities hire for the season; the
 
           reported figures for this industry show an employment
 
           decline.  The computer and data processing portion of
 
           business services continued its strong growth trend.
 
           Health, engineering and management, and private education
 
           services all gained jobs in December.
 
                Manufacturing employment rose by 52,000 in December;
 
           returning strikers accounted for 30,000 of this total.  The
 
           automobile manufacturing industry gained 10,000 jobs in
 
 
                                        -3-
 
 
           December, nearly offsetting the declines that had occurred
 
           in the previous month.  The industrial machinery and
 
           electronic equipment industries continued their growth
 
           trends of the last several years.  Both the manufacturing
 
           workweek and factory overtime edged down by a tenth of an
 
           hour in December, to 41.4 hours and 4.3 hours, respectively.
 
                Retail trade lost 48,000 jobs on a seasonally adjusted
 
           basis in December, following a rather large gain in
 
           November.  The timing of the survey periods in these two
 
           months probably contributed to these offsetting movements.
 
           Taking the September-to-December period as a whole--a period
 
           in which substantial seasonal hiring normally occurs--
 
           monthly job gains averaged 11,000 on a seasonally adjusted
 
           basis, considerably less than in the prior 2 years.  This
 
           weak job growth is consistent with recent news reports that
 
           many retailers experienced disappointing sales during the
 
           holiday shopping season.  Within retail trade, there were
 
           job declines in department stores and apparel and accessory
 
           stores over the September-to-December period.
 
                In transportation and public utilities, trucking and
 
           air transportation experienced greater-than-normal seasonal
 
           hiring in December.  These gains more than offset job losses
 
           in the communications industry.  Wholesale trade continued
 
           its moderate growth trend, and finance, insurance, and real
 
           estate showed a small employment increase over the month.
 
 
                                        -4-
 
 
                Average hourly earnings for private-industry workers
 
           rose 5 cents in December.  Over the past year, hourly
 
           earnings rose by 3.2 percent and weekly earnings by 2.3
 
           percent.
 
                Turning now to the household survey, the unemployment
 
           rate was unchanged at 5.6 percent in December and has shown
 
           no clear trend for more than a year.  There was little or no
 
           over-the-month movement in the other major labor market
 
           indicators from the household survey, including unemployment
 
           rates for the major demographic groups and total employment
 
           and labor force levels.
 
                Before my colleagues and I take your questions, I would
 
           like to provide some information about the impact of the
 
           recent Federal government shutdown on the December
 
           estimates.  In the household survey, Census Bureau
 
           collection activities ended sooner than they normally would
 
           have, resulting in a somewhat lower than usual interview
 
           rate.  In contrast, the establishment survey had a higher
 
           than usual response rate for December because the delay in
 
           the release of the data provided additional time for the
 
           state employment security agencies that collect this
 
           information to receive payroll reports.
 
                The shutdown also interfered with some of the
 
           processing work that ordinarily would have been done prior
 
           to the release of December's data.  In the household survey,
 
           it has been the custom, coincident with the release of
 
 
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           December data, to revise previously released seasonally
 
           adjusted estimates of employment, unemployment, and other
 
           labor force series.  BLS staff were unable to calculate the
 
           revised historical estimates without further delaying the
 
           release of the December figures.  Absent further
 
           disruptions, the revised seasonally adjusted estimates will
 
           be released together with the labor force data for February
 
           1996, scheduled for publication on March 8.
 
                In the establishment survey, preliminary estimates of
 
           employment, hours, and earnings for November have not been
 
           revised, as they normally would have been, again due to time
 
           constraints.  The November estimates presented in today's
 
           release are the same as those originally published in the
 
           December 8 Employment Situation report.  The October data
 
           were revised in the usual way.  Final data for November will
 
           be released with the preliminary January data, as would
 
           normally occur.
 
                In summary, payroll employment continued to grow in
 
           December and unemployment was unchanged.  Although the
 
           recent Federal government shutdown caused some disruption to
 
           our data collection and processing schedule, we do not
 
           believe that it appreciably affected our estimates.
 
 
 
                My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your
 
           questions.