Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp          USDL 05-2276
Technical Information: (202) 691-5700     For release:  10 A.M. EST
Media Contact: (202) 691-5902             Wednesday, December 7, 2005


                  BLS RELEASES 2004-14 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS


         (NOTE:  Table 1 of the text version of this news release was 
       corrected online on Wednesday, November 7, 2007.  The PDF and 
       print versions were correct as originally issued.)


The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released
projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely
composition of the workforce pursuing those jobs.

The 10-year projections-covering the 2004-14 decade-of economic growth,
employment by industry and occupation, and labor force are widely used in career
guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-
range employment trends.  These projections, which are updated every 2 years,
continue a nearly 60-year tradition of providing advice to individuals who are
entering the job market, changing careers, or making further education and
training choices.


Employment

Over the 2004-14 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 18.9
million jobs, or 13 percent.  Over the previous decade (1994-2004), total
employment grew at the same annual rate and increased by 16.4 million jobs.


Industry employment

* Employment growth will continue to be concentrated in the service-providing
  sector of the economy.  Educational services, health care and social
  assistance, and professional and business services represent the industry
  sectors with the strongest employment growth; these sectors are projected to
  grow more than twice as fast as the overall economy.  (See table 1.)

* Construction employment is projected to grow, but at a slower pace than during
  the previous decade (1994-2004).  Manufacturing employment, however, is
  expected to decline by 5 percent, much less than the 16 percent decline that
  occurred in the previous decade.  Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing
  industries is expected to decrease from 15 percent to 13 percent of total
  employment.

* The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth,
  led by employment services, local government education, and offices of
  physicians, are in the service-providing sector.  (See table 3a.) 

* Eight out of the 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary
  employment declines, including cut and sew apparel manufacturing, are in the
  manufacturing sector.  (See table 3b.) 


Occupational employment

* Professional and related occupations and service occupations-two groups on
  opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges-are projected to add the
  most jobs, accounting for 6 out of 10 new jobs created over the 2004-14
  period.  (See table 2.)

* Business and financial operations occupations, professional and related
  occupations, and service occupations are projected to grow faster than the 13
  percent average for all occupations.

* Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are
  projected to lose employment over the period.

* Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information
  technology) occupations.  (See table 3c.)

* Five of the 10 occupations adding the most jobs are service occupations.
  (See table 3d.)


Education and training categories

* An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of
  postsecondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing
  occupations.  (See table 3c.)

* Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of
  postsecondary education or training for 5 of the 10 occupations with the
  largest job growth.  (See table 3d.)


Labor force

* The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 14.7 million over the
  2004-14 decade, reaching 162.1 million by 2014.  This 10 percent increase is
  less than the 12.5-percent increase over the previous decade, 1994-2004, when
  the labor force grew by 16.3 million.  (See table 4.)  The labor force will
  change in composition, as a result of changes in both the composition of the
  population and in the rates of labor force participation across demographic
  groups. 

* The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby-
  boom generation-persons born between 1946 and 1964.  In 2014, baby-boomers
  will be ages 50 to 68 years, and this age group will grow significantly over
  the 2004-14 period.  The labor force will continue to age, with the number of
  workers in the 55-and-older group projected to grow by 49.1 percent, nearly 5
  times the 10 percent growth projected for the overall labor force.  Youths-
  those between the ages of 16 and 24-will decline in numbers and lose share of
  the labor force, from 15.1 percent in 2004 to 13.7 percent in 2014.  Prime-age
  workers-those between the ages of 25 and 54-also will lose share of the labor
  force, from 69.3 percent in 2004 to 65.2 percent in 2014.  The 55-and-older
  age group, on the other hand, is projected to gain share of the labor force,
  from 15.6 percent to 21.2 percent.

* Over the 2004-14 projection period, the number of women in the labor force is
  projected to grow by 10.9 percent, faster than the 9.1-percent growth
  projected for men.  As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected
  to increase from 46.4 percent in 2004 to 46.8 percent by 2014.  In contrast,
  men's share is projected to decline from 53.6 percent to 53.2 percent over the
  decade.

* By 2014, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 25.8 million, due to
  faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher
  fertility rates, and increased immigration levels.  Despite relatively slow
  growth, whites will remain the largest group, composing 80.2 percent of the
  labor force.  Blacks will constitute 12.0 percent of the labor force.  Asians
  will continue to be the fastest growing race group, climbing to 5.1 percent of
  the labor force in 2014.


A note on labor shortages in the context of long-term economic projections

The measures upon which the employment projections and labor force projections
are based are different.  The former is a count of jobs and the latter a count
of individuals.  Users of these data should not assume that the difference
between the projected increase in the labor force and the projected increase in
employment implies a labor shortage or surplus.  The BLS projections assume a
labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets labor demand
except for some degree of frictional unemployment.  For a discussion of the
basic projection methodology, see "A summary of BLS projections to 2014,"
Norman C. Saunders, November 2005 Monthly Labor Review.  For a discussion of
labor shortages in the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment
projections to 2012: concepts and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004
Monthly Labor Review.


Notes

More detailed information on the 2004-14 projections appears in five articles in
the November 2005 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  The Review is available online at:
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm.  A graphic presentation of the highlights of
the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2005-06 Occupational
Outlook Quarterly.  The Quarterly is available online at:
www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm.

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.  The Review costs $49 a
year; single copies are $15.  The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are
$6.  For additional information, contact the Superintendent of Documents at:
www.access.gpo.gov.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request.  Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral
phone: 1-800-877-8339.





Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)
                                                                                                               Average
                                                                Numeric         Percent         Percent      annual rate
                 	              Employment                change          change       distribution     of change

    Industry sector                                           1994    2004    1994  2004                      1994  2004
                               1994      2004      2014        to      to      to    to    1994  2004  2014    to    to
                                                              2004    2014    2004  2014                      2004  2014

Total(1)                    129,245.9 145,612.3 164,539.9  16,366.4 18,927.6  12.7  13.0   100.0 100.0 100.0   1.2   1.2

Nonagriculture wage and
  salary(2)                 114,983.8 132,191.7 150,876.9  17,207.9 18,685.2  15.0  14.1    89.0  90.8  91.7   1.4   1.3

Goods-producing,
  excluding agriculture      22,691.6  21,817.3  21,787.3    -874.3    -30.0  -3.9  -0.1    17.6  15.0  13.2  -0.4   0.0
 Mining                         576.5     523.2     477.4     -53.3    -45.8  -9.2  -8.8     0.4   0.4   0.3  -1.0  -0.9
 Construction                 5,094.9   6,964.5   7,756.9   1,869.6    792.4  36.7  11.4     3.9   4.8   4.7   3.2   1.1
 Manufacturing               17,020.2  14,329.6  13,553.0  -2,690.6   -776.6 -15.8  -5.4    13.2   9.8   8.2  -1.7  -0.6

Service-providing            92,292.2 110,374.4 129,089.6  18,082.2 18,715.2  19.6  17.0    71.4  75.8  78.5   1.8   1.6
 Utilities                      689.4     570.1     562.6    -119.3     -7.5 -17.3  -1.3     0.5   0.4   0.3  -1.9  -0.1
 Wholesale trade              5,247.5   5,654.9   6,130.8     407.4    475.9   7.8   8.4     4.1   3.9   3.7   0.8   0.8
 Retail trade                13,491.1  15,034.5  16,683.2   1,543.4  1,648.7  11.4  11.0    10.4  10.3  10.1   1.1   1.0
 Transportation and
  warehousing                 3,701.1   4,250.0   4,755.9     548.9    505.9  14.8  11.9     2.9   2.9   2.9   1.4   1.1
 Information                  2,738.6   3,138.3   3,502.1     399.7    363.8  14.6  11.6     2.1   2.2   2.1   1.4   1.1
 Financial activities         6,866.9   8,051.9   8,901.3   1,185.0    849.4  17.3  10.5     5.3   5.5   5.4   1.6   1.0
 Professional and business
  services                   12,173.9  16,413.7  20,979.9   4,239.8  4,566.2  34.8  27.8     9.4  11.3  12.8   3.0   2.5
 Educational services         1,894.8   2,766.4   3,664.5     871.6    898.1  46.0  32.5     1.5   1.9   2.2   3.9   2.9
 Health care and social
  assistance                 10,911.9  14,187.2  18,482.1   3,275.3  4,294.9  30.0  30.3     8.4   9.7  11.2   2.7   2.7
 Leisure and hospitality     10,099.8  12,479.1  14,693.8   2,379.3  2,214.7  23.6  17.7     7.8   8.6   8.9   2.1   1.6
 Other services               5,202.1   6,209.9   6,943.4   1,007.8    733.5  19.4  11.8     4.0   4.3   4.2   1.8   1.1
 Federal government           3,018.0   2,727.5   2,770.9    -290.5     43.4  -9.6   1.6     2.3   1.9   1.7  -1.0   0.2
 State and local government  16,257.1  18,890.9  21,019.1   2,633.8  2,128.2  16.2  11.3    12.6  13.0  12.8   1.5   1.1

Agriculture, forestry,
  fishing, and hunting(3)     2,890.1   2,139.9   1,910.0    -750.2   -229.9 -26.0 -10.7     2.2   1.5   1.2  -3.0  -1.1
 Agriculture wage and salary  1,381.0   1,149.2   1,089.7    -231.8    -59.5 -16.8  -5.2     1.1   0.8   0.7  -1.8  -0.5
 Agriculture self-employed
  and unpaid family workers   1,509.1     990.7     820.3    -518.4   -170.4 -34.4 -17.2     1.2   0.7   0.5  -4.1  -1.9

Nonagriculture self-employed
 and unpaid family worker     9,360.0   9,556.4  10,011.9     196.4    455.5   2.1   4.8     7.2   6.6   6.1   0.2   0.5
Secondary wage and salary jobs
 in agriculture and private
 household industries(4)        182.0     137.6     126.8     -44.4    -10.8 -24.4  -7.8     0.1   0.1   0.1  -2.8  -0.8
Secondary jobs as a self-
 employed or unpaid family
 worker(5)                    1,830.0   1,586.7   1,614.3    -243.3     27.6 -13.3   1.7     1.4   1.1   1.0  -1.4   0.2
  
  
(1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts 
    jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the
    Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.
(2) Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is
    from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.
(3) Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which
    is from Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.
(4) Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private
    household industries.
(5) Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.





Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2004 and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                                            Employment                    Change
                                                                                       Percent
        Occupational group                                          Number           distribution     Number  Percent
                                                                2004      2014       2004    2014

Total, all occupations                                       145,612.3  164,539.9   100.0   100.0    18,927.6   13.0

Management occupations                                         9,114.7   10,146.8     6.3     6.2     1,032.0   11.3
Business and financial operations occupations                  5,872.8    6,995.5     4.0     4.3     1,122.7   19.1
Professional and related occupations                          28,544.0   34,590.2    19.6    21.0     6,046.3   21.2
 Computer and mathematical science occupations                 3,152.8    4,119.8     2.2     2.5       967.0   30.7
 Architecture and engineering occupations                      2,519.9    2,834.7     1.7     1.7       314.8   12.5
 Life, physical, and social science occupations                1,315.7    1,531.6     0.9     0.9       215.9   16.4
 Community and social services occupations                     2,317.1    2,800.2     1.6     1.7       483.1   20.8
 Legal occupations                                             1,220.2    1,414.2     0.8     0.9       194.0   15.9
 Education, training, and library occupations                  8,698.0   10,438.0     6.0     6.3     1,740.0   20.0
 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations    2,515.0    2,890.3     1.7     1.8       375.3   14.9
 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations            6,805.3    8,561.4     4.7     5.2     1,756.1   25.8
Service occupations                                           27,672.6   32,929.7    19.0    20.0     5,257.2   19.0
 Healthcare support occupations                                3,492.3    4,656.2     2.4     2.8     1,163.9   33.3
 Protective service occupations                                3,137.6    3,578.0     2.2     2.2       440.3   14.0
 Food preparation and serving related occupations             10,739.2   12,453.2     7.4     7.6     1,714.0   16.0
 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations     5,582.2    6,529.7     3.8     4.0       947.5   17.0
 Personal care and service occupations                         4,721.2    5,712.7     3.2     3.5       991.4   21.0
Sales and related occupations                                 15,330.2   16,806.4    10.5    10.2     1,476.3    9.6
Office and administrative support occupations                 23,907.0   25,287.3    16.4    15.4     1,380.3    5.8
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations                     1,025.9    1,013.0     0.7     0.6       -12.9   -1.3
Construction and extraction occupations                        7,738.5    8,669.4     5.3     5.3       930.9   12.0
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations              5,747.5    6,404.5     3.9     3.9       657.0   11.4
Production occupations                                        10,561.7   10,483.1     7.3     6.4       -78.6   -0.7
Transportation and material moving occupations                10,097.6   11,214.0     6.9     6.8     1,116.4   11.1

NOTE:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent because of rounding.





Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14(1)
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                                  Employment           Change
               Industry                                         2004      2014     Number  Percent

Employment services                                           3,470.3   5,050.2   1,579.9   45.5
Local government educational services                         7,762.5   8,545.5     783.0   10.1
Local government, excluding education and hospitals           5,485.6   6,249.3     763.7   13.9
Offices of physicians                                         2,053.9   2,813.4     759.5   37.0
Full-service restaurants                                      4,226.4   4,927.8     701.4   16.6
General medical and surgical hospitals, private               4,050.9   4,699.0     648.1   16.0
Limited-service eating places                                 3,726.7   4,318.6     591.9   15.9
Home health care services                                       773.2   1,310.3     537.1   69.5
Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private     1,377.5   1,849.8     472.3   34.3
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services       779.0   1,250.2     471.2   60.5

(1) Data are from the National Employment Matrix.





Table 3b. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2004-14(1)
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                                  Employment           Change
               Industry                                         2004      2014     Number  Percent

Wired telecommunications carriers                              548.4     380.1     -168.3   -30.7
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing                              219.9      80.0     -139.9   -63.6
Printing and related support activities                        665.0     600.1      -64.9    -9.8
Fabric mills                                                   115.7      60.0      -55.7   -48.1
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing     452.8     399.9      -52.9   -11.7
Crop production, primary job                                   530.2     482.1      -48.1    -9.1
Basic chemical manufacturing                                   156.1     110.0      -46.1   -29.5
Rubber product manufacturing                                   173.0     132.8      -40.2   -23.2
Foundries                                                      165.4     127.8      -37.6   -22.7
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing                212.1     175.0      -37.1   -17.5

(1) Data are from the National Employment Matrix.





Table 3c. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                    Employment      Change
                  Occupation                                                     Most significant source of post-
                                                   2004   2014  Number Percent   secondary education or training(1)

Home health aides                                   624    974    350    56      Short-term on-the-job training
Network systems and data communications analysts    231    357    126    55      Bachelor's degree
Medical assistants                                  387    589    202    52      Moderate-term on-the-job training
Physician assistants                                 62     93     31    50      Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, applications           460    682    222    48      Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist assistants                        59     85     26    44      Associate degree
Dental hygienists                                   158    226     68    43      Associate degree
Computer software engineers, systems software       340    486    146    43      Bachelor's degree
Dental assistants                                   267    382    114    43      Moderate-term on-the-job training
Personal and home care aides                        701    988    287    41      Short-term on-the-job training

(1) Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
    workers to become fully qualified.  For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected
    Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of
    Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.





Table 3d. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2004-14
(Numbers in thousands)
                                                                 
                                        Employment       Change       
                  Occupation                                          Most significant source of post-
                                        2004   2014  Number Percent   secondary education or training(1)

Retail salespersons                    4,256  4,992    736    17      Short-term on-the-job training
Registered nurses                      2,394  3,096    703    29      Associate degree
Postsecondary teachers                 1,628  2,153    524    32      Doctoral degree
Customer service representatives       2,063  2,534    471    23      Moderate-term on-the-job training
Janitors and cleaners, except maids
  and housekeeping cleaners            2,374  2,813    440    19      Short-term on-the-job training
Waiters and waitresses                 2,252  2,627    376    17      Short-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation and serving
  workers, including fast food         2,150  2,516    367    17      Short-term on-the-job training
Home health aides                        624    974    350    56      Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and
  attendants                           1,455  1,781    325    22      Postsecondary vocational award
General and operations managers        1,807  2,115    308    17      Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

(1) Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
    workers to become fully qualified.  For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected
    Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of
    Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.





Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014
(Numbers in thousands)

                                                                 Change                    Percent        Annual growth
                                    Level                  Number        Percent         distribution     rate (percent)

     Group                                               1994    2004   1994  2004                         1994   2004
                              1994     2004     2014      to      to     to    to     1994   2004   2014    to     to
                                                         2004    2014   2004  2014                         2004   2014
Total, 16 years
  and older                 142,534  144,863  162,269   14,429  17,406  11.3  12.0   100.0  100.0  100.0    1.1    1.1
 16 to 24                    21,612   22,268   22,158      656    -110   3.0  -0.5    16.5   15.1   13.7    0.3    0.0
 25 to 54                    93,898  102,122  105,627    8,224   3,505   8.8   3.4    71.6   69.3   65.2    0.8    0.3
 55 and older                15,546   23,011   34,315    7,465  11,304  48.0  49.1    11.9   15.6   21.2    4.0    4.1

Men                          70,817   78,980   86,194    8,163   7,214  11.5   9.1    54.0   53.6   53.2    1.1    0.9
Women                        60,239   68,421   75,906    8,182   7,485  13.6  10.9    46.0   46.4   46.8    1.3    1.0

White                       111,082  121,086  129,936   10,004   8,850   9.0   7.3    84.8   82.1   80.2    0.9    0.7
Black                        14,502   16,638   19,433    2,136   2,795  14.7  16.8    11.1   11.3   12.0    1.4    1.6
Asian(1)                      5,472    6,271    8,304      799   2,033  14.6  32.4     4.2    4.3    5.1    1.4    2.8
All other groups(2)             (3)    3,406    4,427      (3)   1,021   (3)  30.0     (3)    2.3    2.7    (3)    2.7

Hispanic origin              11,975   19,272   25,760    7,297   6,488  60.9  33.7     9.1   13.1   15.9    4.9    2.9
Other than Hispanic origin  119,081  128,129  136,340    9,048   8,211   7.6   6.4    90.9   86.9   84.1    0.7    0.6
 White Non-Hispanic         100,462  103,202  106,373    2,740   3,171   2.7   3.1    76.7   70.0   65.6    0.3    0.3

(1) As a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in census 2000, data for 1994 represent the "Asian &
    other" race category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004 and 2014 represent the "Asian only" race category with
    2000 census weights.
(2) The "All other groups" category includes (1) those classed as of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories
    of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 
(3) Data for "All other groups" are not available for 1994.