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 Technical information: (202) 691-6555 USDL 03-83

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 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL

 IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED

 UNTIL 8:30 AM EST, FRIDAY,

 FEBRUARY 21, 2003

 

 REAL EARNINGS IN JANUARY 2003

 Real average weekly earnings were unchanged from December to January after 

seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the Bureau 

of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.3 percent increase in 

average weekly hours was offset by a 0.3 percent rise in the Consumer Price 

Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). Average hourly 

earnings were unchanged. 

 Data on average weekly earnings are collected from the payroll reports of 

private nonfarm establishments. Earnings of both full-time and part-time 

workers holding production or nonsupervisory jobs are included. Real average 

weekly earnings are calculated by adjusting earnings in current dollars for 

changes in the CPI-W.

 Average weekly earnings rose by 3.0 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 

January 2002 to January 2003. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly 

earnings rose by 0.4 percent. Before adjustment for seasonal change and 

inflation, average weekly earnings were $507.19 in January 2003, compared with 

$491.90 a year earlier.

 _____________________________

 Real Earnings for February 2003 will be released on Friday, March 21, 

2003. 

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* The seasonally adjusted constant dollar series presented in this release *

* have been revised to reflect new seasonal adjustment factors calculated *

* for the CPI-W, reflecting experience through 2002. This revision affects *

* seasonally adjusted constant dollar series from January 1998 through * 

* December 2002. *

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* The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program for the National series *

* will convert from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to *

* the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) with the *

* release of May 2003 estimates in June 2003. All CES data, including real *

* average hourly earnings and real average weekly earnings, will be *

* reconstructed under NAICS. After the conversion to NAICS, SIC-based *

* series will no longer be produced or published. *

* See http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm or call 202-691-6555 for further *

* details. *

******************************************************************************
Table A. Composition of change in real earnings of production or

nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls

Year 

and

month

Average

hourly

earnings

Average

weekly

hours

Average

weekly

earnings

The

Consumer

Price

Index1

Real

average

weekly

earnings

Percent change from preceding month, seasonally adjusted

2002:

 Jan. 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 (2)

 Feb. .2 .3 .5 .2 .3

 Mar. .2 .0 .2 .3 -.1

 Apr. .1 .0 .1 .5 -.4

 May .2 .0 .2 .1 .2

 June .3 .3 .6 .2 .5

 July .1 -.9 -.7 .2 -1.0

 Aug. .5 .3 .8 .2 .5

 Sept. .1 .3 .4 .2 .2

 Oct. .3 .0 .3 .2 .2

 Nov. .3 .0 .3 .1 .2

 Dec.p .3 -.3 (2) .1 -.1

2003:

 Jan.p .0 .3 .3 .3 (2)

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar

series presented in this release is the

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Less than 0.05 percent.

p = preliminary.

Table B. Percent change in earnings from the same month a year ago for

production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls,

seasonally adjusted

Year 

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars1

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars1

2002:

 Jan. 3.8 3.0 3.2 2.4

 Feb. 3.5 2.6 3.5 2.7

 Mar. 3.3 2.1 3.3 2.1

 Apr. 3.2 1.9 3.2 1.9

 May 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.4

 June 3.1 2.4 3.4 2.7

 July 3.0 1.8 2.4 1.1

 Aug. 3.2 1.6 3.2 1.6

 Sept. 2.9 1.6 3.2 1.9

 Oct. 3.0 1.1 3.6 1.7

 Nov. 3.0 .7 3.3 1.1

 Dec.p 3.0 .5 3.0 .5

2003:

 Jan.p 2.7 .1 3.0 .4

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar

series presented in this release is the

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Less than 0.05 percent.

p = preliminary.
Table 1. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls in current and constant

dollars1 by industry, not seasonally adjusted

Industry

Average hourly earnings Average weekly earnings

 Jan.

 2002

 Dec.

 2002p

 Jan.

 2003p

 Percent

 change

 Jan. 2002 -

 Jan. 2003

 Jan.

 2002

 Dec.

 2002p

 Jan.

 2003p

 Percent

 change

 Jan. 2002 -

 Jan. 2003

Total private:2

 Current dollars ...................... $14.64 $15.05 $15.05 2.8 $491.90 $517.72 $507.19 3.1

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.19 8.24 8.21 .2 275.27 283.37 276.55 .5

Goods-producing:

 Current dollars ...................... 16.17 16.67 16.56 2.4 645.18 673.47 659.09 2.2

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 9.05 9.12 9.03 -.2 361.04 368.62 359.37 -.5

Mining:

 Current dollars ...................... 17.89 17.85 18.07 1.0 754.96 756.84 757.13 .3

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 10.01 9.77 9.85 -1.6 422.47 414.25 412.83 -2.3

Construction:

 Current dollars ...................... 18.56 19.23 18.97 2.2 714.56 726.89 724.65 1.4

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 10.39 10.53 10.34 -.5 399.87 397.86 395.12 -1.2

Manufacturing:

 Current dollars ...................... 15.15 15.58 15.55 2.6 612.06 646.57 628.22 2.6

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.48 8.53 8.48 .0 342.51 353.90 342.54 (3)

Service-producing:

 Current dollars ...................... 14.21 14.61 14.64 3.0 457.56 482.13 472.87 3.3

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 7.95 8.00 7.98 .4 256.05 263.89 257.84 .7

Transportation and public

 utilities:

 Current dollars ...................... 17.13 17.49 17.48 2.0 644.09 676.86 660.74 2.6

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 9.59 9.57 9.53 -.6 360.43 370.48 360.27 (3)

Wholesale trade:

 Current dollars ...................... 16.11 16.49 16.33 1.4 608.96 641.46 618.91 1.6

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 9.02 9.03 8.90 -1.3 340.77 351.10 337.46 -1.0

Retail trade:

 Current dollars ...................... 9.96 10.19 10.23 2.7 279.88 300.61 288.49 3.1

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 5.57 5.58 5.58 .2 156.62 164.54 157.30 .4

Finance, insurance,

 and real estate:

 Current dollars ...................... 16.07 16.83 16.79 4.5 575.31 617.66 604.44 5.1

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.99 9.21 9.15 1.8 321.94 338.07 329.57 2.4

Services:

 Current dollars ...................... 15.14 15.68 15.63 3.2 487.51 514.30 504.85 3.6

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.47 8.58 8.52 .6 272.81 281.50 275.27 .9

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in

this release is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Data relate to production and related workers in

mining and manufacturing; construction workers in

construction; and nonsupervisory workers in transportation

and public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, and real

estate, and services. Included in this group are

approximately four-fifths of all jobs on private industry

payrolls.

p = preliminary.
Table 2. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm

payrolls1, seasonally adjusted

Year

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

2002:

 Jan. $14.58 $8.14 $497.18 $277.60

 Feb. 14.61 8.14 499.66 278.36

 Mar. 14.64 8.13 500.69 278.01

 Apr. 14.66 8.10 501.37 277.00

 May 14.69 8.11 502.40 277.42

 June 14.74 8.13 505.58 278.71

 July 14.76 8.12 501.84 276.04

 Aug. 14.83 8.14 505.70 277.55

 Sept. 14.85 8.13 507.87 278.13

 Oct. 14.90 8.15 509.58 278.61

 Nov. 14.94 8.16 510.95 279.21

 Dec. p 14.98 8.18 510.82 278.83

2003:

 Jan. p 14.98 8.15 512.32 278.74

1 See footnote 2, table 1. 2 The deflator for the constant-dollar series

presented in this release is the Consumer Price

Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical

Workers (CPI-W).

 p = preliminary.
Table 3. Revised seasonally adjusted average hourly and weekly earnings of

production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls1 in constant (1982)

dollars

Year

Average hourly earnings

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

1998 .................... $7.65 $7.69 $7.72 $7.74 $7.74 $7.76

1999 .................... 7.83 7.84 7.86 7.85 7.86 7.89

2000 .................... 7.88 7.88 7.85 7.88 7.89 7.87

2001 .................... 7.90 7.93 7.96 7.95 7.92 7.94

2002 .................... 8.14 8.14 8.13 8.10 8.11 8.13

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

1998 .................... 7.76 7.78 7.80 7.80 7.81 7.82

1999 .................... 7.88 7.87 7.86 7.86 7.87 7.86

2000 .................... 7.87 7.90 7.88 7.91 7.92 7.94

2001 .................... 7.98 8.01 8.00 8.06 8.10 8.14

2002 .................... 8.12 8.14 8.13 8.15 8.16 p8.18

See footnotes at end of table.
Table 3. Revised seasonally adjusted average hourly and weekly earnings of

production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls1 in constant (1982)

dollars--Continued

Average weekly earnings

Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June

1998 .................... $266.25 $266.92 $267.00 $267.89 $268.69 $267.66

1999 .................... 270.82 270.61 270.49 270.69 271.19 272.05

2000 .................... 271.89 271.79 270.70 272.01 271.35 270.66

2001 .................... 271.00 271.10 272.25 271.91 270.82 271.51

2002 .................... 277.60 278.36 278.01 277.00 277.42 278.71

July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec.

1998 .................... 268.36 269.30 268.98 269.95 270.25 270.43

1999 .................... 271.91 271.51 270.30 271.22 271.46 271.32

2000 .................... 270.63 271.93 271.01 272.07 271.79 271.51

2001 .................... 273.03 273.14 272.91 273.89 276.11 277.49

2002 .................... 276.04 277.55 278.13 278.61 279.21 p278.83

1 Data relate to production and related

workers in mining and manufacturing;

construction workers in construction; and

nonsupervisory workers in transportation and

public utilities; wholesale and retail trade; finance,

insurance, and real estate; and services.

 NOTE: These data have been revised to reflect

the seasonal experience in the Consumer Price

Index for Urban Wage and Clerical Workers

(CPI-W) from January 1998 through December

2002.

p = preliminary.
Explanatory Note

The earnings series presented in this release 

are derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, a 

monthly establishment survey of employment, payroll, 

and hours. The deflator used for constant-dollar 

earnings series presented in this release is derived from 

the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and 

Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

For the purpose of the Real Earnings series, 

the CPI-W is converted from the base of 1982-84 that 

is used in the official, published series to a base of 

1982. Thus, the constant dollar average hourly and 

weekly earnings series are in 1982 dollars. To avoid 

confusion for users, the CPI data presented in Table A 

are the official, published CPI-W series. These data 

may differ slightly from those used in the real earnings 

calculations.

Seasonally adjusted data are used for

estimates of percent change from the same month a 

year ago for current and constant average hourly and 

weekly earnings that are presented in Table B of this 

release. Special techniques are applied to the CES

hours and earnings data in the seasonal adjustment 

process to mitigate the effect of certain calendarrelated fluctuations. Thus, over-the-year changes of 

these hours and earnings are best measured using

seasonally adjusted series. A discussion of the

calendar-related fluctuations in the hours and earnings 

data and the special techniques to remove them is

available in the June 1998 issue of Employment and 

Earnings or on the Internet (http://www.bls.gov/ces/). 

Earnings series from the monthly

establishment series are estimated arithmetic averages 

(means) of the hourly and weekly earnings of all

production or nonsupervisory jobs in the private

nonfarm sector of the economy. Average hourly

earnings estimates are derived by dividing the

estimated industry payroll--for all production or

nonsupervisory jobs--by the corresponding paid hours. 

Average weekly hours estimates are similarly derived 

by dividing estimated aggregate hours by the

corresponding number of production or nonsupervisory 

jobs. Average weekly earnings estimates are derived 

by multiplying the average hourly earnings and the

average weekly hours estimates. This is equivalent to 

dividing the estimated payroll by the number of

production or nonsupervisory jobs. The weekly and 

hourly earnings estimates for aggregate industries,

such as the major industry division and the total private 

sector averages printed in this release, are derived by 

summing the corresponding payroll, hours, and

employment estimates of the component industries. 

As a result, each industry receives a "weight" in the 

published averages that corresponds to its current level 

of activity (employment or total hours). This further 

implies that fluctuations and varying trends in

employment in high-wage versus low-wage industries 

as well as wage rate changes influence the earnings 

averages.

There are several characteristics of the series 

presented in this release that limit their suitability for 

some types of economic analyses. (1) The denominator 

for the weekly earnings series is the number of private 

nonfarm production or nonsupervisory worker jobs. 

This number includes full-time and part-time jobs as 

well as the jobs held by multiple jobholders in the

private nonfarm sector. These factors tend to result in 

weekly earnings averages significantly lower than the 

corresponding numbers for full-time jobs. (2) Annual 

earnings averages can differ significantly from the

result obtained by multiplying average weekly

earnings times 52 weeks. The difference may be due 

to factors such as turnovers and layoffs. (3) The series 

are the average earnings of all production or

nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of

"typical" jobs or jobs held by "typical" workers. 

Specifically, there are no adjustments for occupational, 

age, or schooling variations or for household type or 

location. Many studies have established the

significance of these factors and that their impact

varies over time.

Seasonally adjusted data (table 2) are

preferred by some users for analyzing general earnings 

trends in the economy since they eliminate the effect of 

changes that normally occur at the same time and in 

about the same magnitude each year and, therefore, 

reveal the underlying trends and cyclical movements. 

Changes in average earnings may be due to seasonal 

changes in the proportion of workers in high-wage and 

low-wage industries or occupations or to seasonal

changes in the amount of overtime work, and so on.

For more information, see Thomas Gavett,

"Measures of Change in Real Wages and Earnings," 

Monthly Labor Review, February 1972.

Information in this release will be made

available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD Message Referral 

Phone Number: 1-800-877-8339.