Monthly Labor Review February 2000 3

The Job Market, 1999

The U.S. economy entered its 9th year of

expansion in 1999. By the end of the

year, 106 months of uninterrupted recovery from the 1990–91 recession had passed,

equaling the lengthy expansion of the 1960s—

the longest on record. Gross domestic product

increased 4.3 percent in 1999, with the strength

due, in large part, to exceptionally robust consumer spending. (See table 1.) Most indicators

of labor market performance evidenced continued strength in 1999. Over the year, total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 2.7 million, to 129.6 million in the fourth quarter, and

the unemployment rate declined to 4.1 percent

by year’s end, a 30-year low.

With employment continuing to grow and unemployment continuing to inch down, concerns

about the economy overheating and resultant inflationary pressures prompted the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates several times in the

second half of the year. As the year progressed,

wage growth remained tepid, and by the end of

the year, consumer prices were up by only 2.6

percent from a year earlier.

The service-producing industries provided the

overwhelming majority of employment growth in

1999. Job growth in construction also was healthy,

buoyed by low interest rates and strong consumer

confidence, although the rise in mortgage interest rates in the second half of the year dampened

employment in homebuilding a bit. Manufacturing continued to lose jobs in 1999, as export

growth remained sluggish in the wake of recent

economic turmoil in several Asian economies.

However, the rate of job loss in manufacturing

was slower than in the previous year.

Workers in most major demographic groups

benefited from the healthy labor market in 1999,

as unemployment rates fell to their lowest levels in decades. Almost half of the employment

growth over the year occurred in the higher paying managerial and professional specialty occupations. Men, women, whites, blacks, and

Hispanics all reported increases in real earnings.

This article provides snapshots of several

important developments or issues related to the

U.S. economy and labor market in 1999. The

primary sources of data are the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey of establishments

and the Current Population Survey (CPS) of

households.1 Both of these surveys are conducted monthly; however, quarterly averages are

used in the analysis that follows, unless otherwise noted, and over-the-year changes are based

on comparisons of fourth-quarter 1998 and 1999

data, unless otherwise noted.

More than half of all job growth in 1999 was

in services, and companies that provide services to businesses led the way. Contracting for

services and workers has grown at a rapid pace

throughout the current expansion. Two factors

The job market

remains strong in 1999

The unemployment rate hit a 30-year low;

services led job growth, and the recent

downward trend in manufacturing employment

abated in the second half of the year

Jennifer L. Martel

and

Laura A. Kelter

Jennifer L. Martel is an

economist in the

Division of Labor Force

Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics; Laura

A. Kelter is an economist in the Division of

Monthly Industry

Employment Statistics,

Bureau of Labor

Statistics.
4 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

provided further impetus for businesses to contract for services in 1999: tight labor markets and the need to rewrite computer programs so that they would work in the new century.

Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 2.7 million in 1999,

somewhat less than the 2.9 million in 1998 (see table 2), but in

line with the average for the current expansion. As in the past,

the services industry led employment growth, adding almost

1.5 million employees during 1999. (See chart 1.) An industry

ranking of jobs added within services reveals that the strongest performers were those industries that provided services

to other businesses (business services and engineering and

management services) instead of those driven by individual

consumers or demographic trends (social services and health

services). (See chart 2.)

Businesses purchase services for many reasons. Some companies maximize their flexibility to respond to changing demand for their products and services by contracting for those

services instead of directly hiring permanent employees for

peak periods. Others contract out for services for which they

lack expertise, such as installing new computer programs or

implementing new accounting systems. In some companies,

the growth of output increases the demand for routine services

such as payroll or facilities management. Many companies meet

peak workloads by contracting for workers through a temporary help agency. Among the services that businesses purchased, management and public relations, computer and data

processing services, and personnel supply services each experienced employment growth greater than 7 percent in 1999,

compared with 2.1 percent for all industries.

The number of jobs in management and public relations services grew by 11.2 percent in 1999, almost equaling 1998’s strong

Table 1. Over-the-year percent change in selected

 broad economic indicators, 1993–99

Real gross domestic product ............. 4.6 3.9 4.3

Real exports ...................................... 1.9 8.3 6.2

Home mortgage interest rate ............. –11.4 .0 13.1

New home sales ................................ 15.4 4.5 4.5

Sales of existing homes ..................... 11.8 3.7 10.0

Consumer confidence ....................... –3.9 11.9 9.8

Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) ............ 1.5 2.4 2.6

Indicator 1997–98

1 Percent changes for 1998–99 are based on third-quarter comparisons.

2 Not seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: Seasonally adjusted fourth-quarter data, unless otherwise noted.

1993–98

average

1998–99

The Job Market, 1999

The Bureau of Labor Statistics maintains two independent

monthly data series on employment: the estimate of total

nonfarm jobs, derived from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, and the estimate of total employment,

derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS).

The CES survey is an employer-based survey that provides data on the number of jobs within industries. The CPS

is a survey of households that provides data on the labor

force status (employed, unemployed, and not in the labor

force) of individuals and includes information on their demographic as well as socioeconomic characteristics. The

surveys are largely complementary.

Employment estimates from the CPS are for persons in

any type of work arrangement: wage and salary workers,

self-employed persons, and unpaid workers in family businesses. To be considered employed, an unpaid family

worker must have worked 15 or more hours in an enterprise operated by a member of the family. Estimates from

the CES survey refer only to persons on nonfarm payrolls.

As a result, the count of employment from the CPS is larger

than that from the CES survey.

Partially offsetting the higher estimates from the CPS is

the fact that it is a count of persons, and individuals are

counted only once, regardless of the number of jobs they

hold. In contrast, the establishment survey is a count of jobs

and includes each job for persons who work in more than

one establishment.

There are other differences in the surveys’ methodology

and coverage. For example, the reference period for the CPS

is the week that includes the 12th day of the month, while,

for the CES survey, it is the pay period that includes the 12th

of the month. Pay periods vary in length and can be longer

than 1 week. It is therefore possible for the CES survey estimate of employment to reflect a longer reference period

than that used for the CPS.

The universe for the CPS is the civilian noninstitutional

population, which comprises persons 16 years of age and

older residing in the United States who are not residents of

institutions (for example, penal and mental facilities and

homes for the aged) and who are not on active duty in the

Armed Forces. In this regard, the coverage of the CES survey is broader: there is no age restriction, uniformed military personnel who hold civilian jobs are covered because

of their civilian employment, and persons who commute

into the United States from Mexico or Canada to work are

counted as employed.

Conceptual differences between employment estimates

from the Current Population Survey (household survey)

and the Current Employment Statistics survey (establishment survey)

1

1

1

 2

1
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 5

Table 2. Employees on nonfarm payrolls, by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1993–99

[Numbers in thousands]

 1997–98 Average, 1994–98 1998–99

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent Thousands Percent

Total nonfarm ....................................... 111,780 126,865 129,585 2,919 2.4 3,017 2.6 2,720 2.1

 Total private ........................................ 92,857 106,920 109,313 2,609 2.5 2,813 2.9 2,393 2.2

 Goods-producing ............................... 23,486 25,319 25,245 138 .5 367 1.5 –74 –.3

................................................

 Mining ............................................... 607 574 528 –27 –4.5 –7 –1.1 –46 –8.0

 Metal mining .................................... 49 50 48 –3 –5.7 0 .4 –2 –4.0

 Oil and gas extraction ...................... 353 325 289 –21 –6.1 –6 –1.6 –36 –11.1

 Nonmetallic minerals, except fuels ... 103 109 108 1 .9 1 1.1 –1 –.9

................................................

 Construction ...................................... 4,782 6,100 6,356 325 5.6 264 5.0 256 4.2

 General building contractors ............. 1,151 1,396 1,449 71 5.4 49 3.9 53 3.8

 Heavy construction,

except building ................................. 723 856 870 52 6.5 27 3.4 14 1.6

 Special trade contractors .................. 2,908 3,848 4,036 202 5.5 188 5.8 188 4.9

................................................

 Manufacturing .................................... 18,097 18,645 18,361 –160 –.9 110 .6 –284 –1.5

 Durable goods .................................. 10,247 11,098 10,956 –48 –.4 170 1.6 –142 –1.3

 Lumber and wood products ............ 725 820 830 17 2.1 19 2.5 10 1.2

 Furniture and fixtures ..................... 492 533 544 15 2.9 8 1.6 11 2.1

 Stone, clay, and glass products ...... 521 568 570 13 2.3 9 1.7 2 .4

 Primary metal industries ................. 684 701 686 –15 –2.1 3 .5 –15 –2.1

 Fabricated metal products .............. 1,348 1,495 1,488 –2 –.1 29 2.1 –7 –.5

 Industrial machinery and equipment 1,942 2,177 2,117 –23 –1.0 47 2.3 –60 –2.8

 Computer and office equipment ..... 356 372 358 –10 –2.6 3 .9 –14 –3.8

 Electronic and other electrical

 equipment ................................... 1,532 1,675 1,665 –38 –2.2 29 1.8 –10 –.6

 Electronic components

 and accessories ......................... 529 643 644 –26 –3.9 23 4.0 1 .2

 Transportation equipment ............... 1,738 1,887 1,835 8 .4 30 1.7 –52 –2.8

 Motor vehicles and equipment ....... 853 996 1,002 –3 –.3 29 3.1 6 .6

 Aircraft and parts ........................... 515 520 467 3 .6 1 .2 –53 –10.2

 Instruments and related products ... 882 855 832 –19 –2.2 –5 –.6 –23 –2.7

 Miscellaneous manufacturing

 industries ..................................... 382 387 389 –6 –1.5 1 .3 2 .5

................................................

 Nondurable goods ........................... 7,850 7,547 7,405 –111 –1.4 –61 –.8 –142 –1.9

Food and kindred products ............ 1,686 1,689 1,686 4 .2 1 .0 –3 –.2

Tobacco products ........................... 43 40 38 –1 –2.4 –1 –1.4 –2 –5.0

 Textile mill products ....................... 672 586 551 –26 –4.2 –17 –2.7 –35 –6.0

 Apparel and other textile products . 976 730 662 –77 –9.5 –49 –5.6 –68 –9.3

 Paper and allied products .............. 690 667 655 –15 –2.2 –5 –.7 –12 –1.8

 Printing and publishing .................. 1,522 1,563 1,550 4 .3 8 .5 –13 –.8

 Chemicals and allied products ....... 1,076 1,042 1,033 2 .2 –7 –.6 –9 –.9

 Petroleum and coal products ......... 150 140 136 –1 –.7 –2 –1.4 –4 –2.9

 Rubber and miscellaneous

plastics products .......................... 919 1,010 1,023 8 .8 18 1.9 13 1.3

 Leather and leather products ......... 116 79 71 –9 –10.2 –7 –7.4 –8 –10.1

................................................

 Service-producing .............................. 88,294 101,545 104,340 2,780 2.8 2,650 2.8 2,795 2.8

 Transportation and public utilities ....... 5,853 6,671 6,864 192 3.0 164 2.7 193 2.9

 Transportation ................................... 3,638 4,334 4,476 158 3.8 139 3.6 142 3.3

 Railroad transportation ................... 244 231 227 4 1.8 –3 –1.1 –4 –1.7

 Local and interurban passenger

 transit .......................................... 387 474 487 18 3.9 17 4.1 13 2.7

 Trucking and warehousing .............. 1,471 1,768 1,834 71 4.2 59 3.7 66 3.7

 Water transportation ....................... 170 183 181 7 4.0 3 1.5 –2 –1.1

 Transportation by air ....................... 989 1,202 1,261 43 3.7 43 4.0 59 4.9

 Pipelines, except natural gas .......... 18 14 13 0 .0 –1 –4.9 –1 –7.1

 Transportation services ................... 360 462 473 16 3.6 20 5.1 11 2.4

................................................ 0

 Communications and public utilities .. 2,215 2,337 2,388 34 1.5 24 1.1 51 2.2

 Communications ............................. 1,275 1,485 1,546 42 2.9 42 3.1 61 4.1

 Electric, gas, and sanitary services 940 851 843 -9 –1.0 –18 –2.0 –8 –.9

................................................

 Wholesale trade ................................. 6,023 6,889 7,071 175 2.6 173 2.7 182 2.6

 Durable goods ................................. 3,466 4,073 4,195 100 2.5 121 3.3 122 3.0

 Nondurable goods ........................... 2,557 2,816 2,876 75 2.7 52 1.9 60 2.1

Industry

Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1993

Fourth

quarter,

1999

See footnote at end of tables.
6 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

Retail trade ........................................... 20,004 22,453 22,910 355 1.6 490 2.3 457 2.0

Building materials and garden

supplies .......................................... 795 962 1,004 33 3.6 33 3.9 42 4.4

General merchandise stores ............. 2,498 2,751 2,763 34 1.3 51 1.9 12 .4

 Department stores ........................... 2,158 2,448 2,457 46 1.9 58 2.6 9 .4

Food stores ....................................... 3,247 3,487 3,481 8 .2 48 1.4 –6 –.2

 Automotive dealers and service

stations .......................................... 2,047 2,362 2,426 42 1.8 63 2.9 64 2.7

 New and used car dealers ............... 927 1,055 1,096 10 1.0 26 2.6 41 3.9

 Apparel and accessory stores ......... 1,141 1,146 1,197 18 1.6 1 .1 51 4.5

 Furniture and home furnishings

stores .............................................. 846 1,043 1,098 35 3.5 39 4.3 55 5.3

 Eating and drinking places .............. 6,933 7,817 7,946 135 1.8 177 2.4 129 1.7

 Miscellaneous retail establishments 2,495 2,886 2,995 52 1.8 78 3.0 109 3.8

.....................................................

 Finance, insurance, and real estate .... 6,856 7,519 7,679 312 4.3 133 1.9 160 2.1

Finance ............................................. 3,290 3,652 3,726 167 4.8 72 2.1 74 2.0

Depository institutions ..................... 2,089 2,045 2,048 9 .4 –9 –.4 3 .1

Commercial banks ........................ 1,498 1,466 1,466 –4 –.3 –6 –.4 0 .0

Savings institutions ....................... 320 258 253 0 .0 –12 –4.2 –5 –1.9

 Nondepository institutions ............... 484 692 712 89 14.8 42 7.4 20 2.9

 Security and commodity brokers ..... 491 660 697 47 7.7 34 6.1 37 5.6

 Holding and other investment

offices .......................................... 226 256 270 23 9.9 6 2.5 14 5.5

.....................................................

 Insurance .......................................... 2,224 2,374 2,412 85 3.7 30 1.3 38 1.6

Insurance carriers ............................. 1,549 1,619 1,638 62 4.0 14 .9 19 1.2

Insurance agents, brokers,

and services ................................... 675 755 774 23 3.1 16 2.3 19 2.5

Real estate ....................................... 1,342 1,493 1,540 60 4.2 30 2.2 47 3.1

.....................................................

 Services ............................................. 30,637 38,069 39,544 1,438 3.9 1,486 4.4 1,475 3.9

 Agricultural services ........................ 537 727 766 36 5.2 38 6.2 39 5.4

 Hotels and other lodging places ...... 1,615 1,783 1,807 25 1.4 34 2.0 24 1.3

 Personal services ............................ 1,143 1,198 1,216 8 .7 11 .9 18 1.5

 Business services ........................... 5,895 8,779 9,347 549 6.7 577 8.3 568 6.5

Services to buildings ..................... 832 962 1,001 28 3.0 26 2.9 39 4.1

Personnel supply services ............ 2,029 3,271 3,508 162 5.2 248 10.0 237 7.2

Help supply services ................. 1,786 2,905 3,109 139 5.0 224 10.2 204 7.0

Computer and data processing

services ....................................... 909 1,675 1,831 201 13.6 153 13.0 156 9.3

 Auto repair, services, and parking ... 934 1,159 1,197 30 2.7 45 4.4 38 3.3

 Miscellaneous repair services ......... 340 388 402 13 3.5 10 2.7 14 3.6

 Motion pictures ................................ 421 576 611 11 1.9 31 6.5 35 6.1

 Amusement and recreation services 1,285 1,638 1,723 77 4.9 71 5.0 85 5.2

 Health services ................................ 8,850 9,891 10,025 119 1.2 208 2.2 134 1.4

 Offices and clinics of medical

doctors ....................................... 1,517 1,830 1,886 67 3.8 63 3.8 56 3.1

Nursing and personal care facilities 1,616 1,757 1,757 –7 –.4 28 1.7 0 .0

Hospitals ....................................... 3,772 3,950 3,981 68 1.8 36 .9 31 .8

Home health care services ............ 504 652 657 –58 –8.2 30 5.3 5 .8

.....................................................

 Legal services ................................. 926 986 1,012 34 3.6 12 1.3 26 2.6

 Private schools and other

 educational services ...................... 1,756 2,214 2,297 83 3.9 92 4.7 83 3.7

 Social services ................................ 2,106 2,695 2,836 134 5.2 118 5.1 141 5.2

Child day care services ................. 482 615 642 29 4.9 27 5.0 27 4.4

Residential care ............................ 580 760 797 32 4.4 36 5.6 37 4.9

 Museums and botanical

 and zoological gardens .................. 77 94 95 3 3.3 3 4.1 1 1.1

 Membership organizations .............. 2,045 2,376 2,413 63 2.7 66 3.0 37 1.6

 Engineering and management

 services ......................................... 2,535 3,271 3,502 216 7.1 147 5.2 231 7.1

Engineering and architectural

services ..................................... 761 919 960 40 4.6 32 3.8 41 4.5

Management and public relations .. 696 1,080 1,201 113 11.7 77 9.2 121 11.2

.....................................................

 Government ....................................... 18,922 19,945 20,272 310 1.6 205 1.1 327 1.6

 Federal .............................................. 2,898 2,712 2,647 27 1.0 –37 –1.3 –65 –2.4

Table 2. Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls, by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1993–99

[Numbers in thousands]

 1997–98 Average, 1994–98 1998–99

Fourth

quarter,

1993

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Industry

See footnootes at end of tables.

The Job Market, 1999

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent Thousands Percent

1

1

1

1

1
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 7

Table 2. Continued—Employees on nonfarm payrolls, by industry, seasonally adjusted quarterly averages, 1993–99

[Numbers in thousands]

1997–98 Average, 1994–98 1998–99

Thousands Percent Thousands Percent Thousands Percent

Federal, except Postal Service ......... 2,100 1,832 1,778 8 .4 –54 –2.7 –54 -2.9

 State government ............................... 4,513 4,641 4,727 56 1.2 26 .6 86 1.9

State government, except

education ...................................... 2,663 2,715 2,761 37 1.4 10 .4 46 1.7

State government education ............. 1,851 1,926 1,966 20 1.0 15 .8 40 2.1

 Local government .............................. 11,511 12,592 12,898 226 1.8 216 1.8 306 2.4

Local government, except

education ...................................... 5,126 5,463 5,575 70 1.3 67 1.3 112 2.1

Local government education ............. 6,385 7,129 7,323 157 2.3 149 2.2 194 2.7

1

Includes other industries not shown separately. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Change, fourth quarter to fourth quarter

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1993

Industry

performance. Consulting companies often help businesses streamline their processes for managing people, performance, and liabilities, with the goal of improving productivity. Consultants

are primarily skilled professionals and frequently are assigned a

specific budget, task, and time horizon. With the turn of the century approaching, consulting services were called upon to replace or modernize information systems and to prepare contingency plans for potential computer problems related to the

year-2000 date turnover. Like management and public relations services, the computer services industry also enjoyed

continued strong growth in the past year. Employment in computer and data-processing services increased by 9.3 percent in

1999, not as fast as the growth in 1998, but still 4 times the

pace for all industries.

Because, in 1999, businesses were already straining to find

labor resources to meet increasing demand, many companies

continued to turn to employment agencies or to temporary help

services that year to help them survive seasonal increases, meet

one-time requirements for specific tasks, or fill permanent

positions. Personnel supply services provide businesses with

employees whose occupations range from day laborers to computer scientists. The need to closely adjust labor input to handle

fluctuations in consumer demand has particularly benefited the

help supply industry, which typically supplies workers to businesses for defined, limited periods. However, the tight labor

market in 1999 also prompted some businesses to turn to help

supply industries to fill permanent positions. In this capacity,

a temporary help agency not only recruits workers, but also

may provide them with limited training, as well as a period of

“trial” employment, before they are transferred to a permanent position on the business’ payroll.2

The number of workers employed in personnel supply services rose by 7.2 percent from 1998 to 1999. Even though this

industry was among the fastest growing, the 1999 increase was

below the average annual rate of growth of the industry for the

past 5 years. While growth in employment in the personnel

supply industry has been particularly robust throughout the

current expansion,3 growth in 1999 was tempered by a tight

labor market. Thus, the scarcity of qualified persons available

to be hired, which boosted the demand for personnel supply

services, also limited the industry’s ability to meet demand.4

The economy was buoyed by strong consumer confidence.

With consumers enjoying the benefits of low price inflation

and continuing their pattern of spending rather than saving,

consumer demand sustained the domestic economy even as

most other economies around the world remained weak. The

confidence workers had about the economy, combined with

growth in real earnings and a soaring stock market, led to

improved sales of most goods and services.

The average hourly and weekly earnings of production and

nonsupervisory workers in the private economy increased between the fourth quarters of 1998 and 1999 by 3.7 percent and

3.4 percent, respectively, before adjustment for inflation. Increases in hourly earnings slowed from the pace set over the

past 2 years, but remained higher than the average over the

current expansion. Real earnings growth lost much of its momentum of the previous year, partly due to smaller wage gains,

but even more so because the increase in consumer prices,

while still small, was greater than in 1998. Real earnings have

grown by 6 percent thus far during the current expansion, which

began in 1991. In constant dollars, the over-the-year growth in

fourth-quarter hourly earnings was 0.9 percent in 1999, compared with 2.4 percent during 1998. Nevertheless, any increase

in inflation-adjusted earnings indicates that consumers are able

to purchase more goods and services.

The continued growth in real earnings and the healthy gains

in employment fueled consumer confidence,5 which improved

markedly over the year. Naturally, the retail trade industry benefited from consumer spending, but some detailed components

within retail did much better than others. The growth rate in

retail trade employment in 1999 was slightly ahead of that
8 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

Mining

Construction

Manufacturing

Transportation and public utilities

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Finance, insurance, and real estate

Services

Government

(500) 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 0

Chart 1. Change in employment, by industry division, 1999 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Thousands of workers

500

Business services

Engineering and management

Social services

Health services

Amusement and recreation

Educational services

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0

Chart 2. Services industries with most jobs added, 1999 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Thousands of workers
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 9

experienced in 1998. The gains were made despite a highly

competitive labor market, which would tend to make recruitment in relatively low-paying retail jobs even more difficult.

In fact, employment slowed in the fall of the year, suggesting

that retailers were having to wrestle with the problems of a

dwindling supply of workers.6

Within retail trade, miscellaneous retail establishments, a

category that encompasses a variety of stores, such as drugstores, liquor stores, and florists, as well as catalog companies and other nonstore retailers (including Internet companies), accounts for much of the improvement over 1998. The

miscellaneous retail industry added 109,000 jobs during the

year, twice as many as in 1998. Automotive dealerships, furniture and home furnishings stores, and apparel stores also

exhibited much larger gains than in 1998. Employment growth

in eating and drinking places, department stores, and food

stores lagged behind that of 1998, bringing overall performance for retail trade to just below the average pace for the

previous 5-year period.

Automotive dealerships reaped the benefits of strong consumption. Sales of motor vehicles in 1999 surpassed the record

set in 1986, as income gains, low interest rates, and dealer

incentives acted together to create a remarkably favorable climate for sales. A strong dollar also affected sales of motor

vehicles, as cheaper imports prompted domestic manufacturers to offer discounts. Despite competition from on-line car

sales, employment by new and used car dealers increased by

3.9 percent, the biggest rise since 1994.

Growth in furniture and home furnishings stores was led

by radio, television, and computer stores. Consumers replaced

computers with newer models that would provide uninterrupted

use into the year 2000 and models that offered much-improved

processing speeds. Competition in the computer market put

downward pressure on prices in the industry in 1999, and many

consumers took advantage of price reductions for computers

and peripheral equipment.7 Manufacturers’ rebates and discounts from on-line service providers were common, making

1999 a very good year for computer purchases.8 Reflecting

this sales growth, employment in radio, television, and computer stores grew by over 6.3 percent in 1999, nearly matching the strong 6.7-percent average growth over the past 5 years.

Low interest rates benefited construction and related industries. In the first quarter of 1999, the percentage of families able

to buy American homes reached the highest level in recent history, as both low interest rates and healthy income gains helped

make housing more affordable.9 Despite increasing mortgage

rates during the second half of the year, sales of new homes were

sustained at very high levels throughout 1999, even outpacing

the sales records of 1998.

Employment in many construction-related industries posted

continued growth during 1999, but the building boom eventually resulted in shortages, not only of labor, but also of materials.10 Most of the job growth in construction supported residential building and the contracting of specialized trades such

as plumbing, painting, and carpentry services. General building contractors, which include residential construction firms,

increased employment by 3.8 percent in 1999, compared with

5.4 percent in 1998. Job gains in all construction industries

were weaker in 1999 than their average for the current expansion overall and also weaker than in 1998.

Industries that produced basic construction materials increased their payrolls as they stepped up production. Demand

for lumber and wood products grew at a moderate pace, with

job growth in that manufacturing industry slightly below that

of 1998. Companies that manufacture furniture and fixtures

also increased their payrolls, although the rate of growth declined somewhat following an unusually high rate of gain in

1998. Employment across all construction-related manufacturing industries grew by 1.4 percent in 1999, compared with

a decline in overall manufacturing of 1.5 percent.

The momentum in construction also spilled over into some

areas of retail trade. Strong growth was evident in stores that

sell building materials and garden supplies, lending further

credence to the importance of the construction industry in explaining overall employment growth. Consumers also frequented retail stores to make purchases for their residences,

resulting in a healthy 5.3-percent job gain in furniture and

appliance stores. Orders tracked by the American Furniture

Manufacturers Association reflect increased purchases over

1998, as bedroom, dining room, and occasional furniture all

registered moderate gains.11

Agricultural services, which include landscape services,

grew by 5.4 percent in 1999. The industry followed the pattern of the construction industry for the majority of the year.

The contracting of agricultural services was in preparation for

new-home sales, as well as for maintaining landscaping for

existing homes and businesses.

Employment in real estate and finance continued to benefit

from strong growth in the housing market, as job gains in mortgage banks and brokerages, title insurance, and real estate

agents were robust through the first half of the year. However,

employment related to refinancing slowed as interest rates increased, a trend that began early in the year. Declines in refinancing lowered the demand for mortgage bankers and brokers as the year progressed, and the industry shed jobs from

June through the end of the year. Growth in the finance industries was dampened not only by these job losses, but also by

continued consolidation among banks and savings institutions.

Industries that were affected by intense price competition

and the weak world economy suffered in 1999. Particularly

affected by world economic conditions were industries that

produced commodities rather than services. Most commodities underwent a slow price recovery from 1998 lows,12 although overall, commodity prices remained below 1997 lev-
10 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

els. While fuel prices rebounded strongly over the year, prices

of many other goods were still making up for lost ground.

Employment in mining exhibited a weakness similar to that

of a year earlier, as low oil prices continued through the first

quarter of 1999. After plunging 32 percent in 1998, oil prices

made nearly a full recovery by the fourth quarter of 1999. The

recovery of employment, however, was only modest. (See chart

3.) Oil and gas companies continued to streamline operations.

A number of mergers that took place in 1999 held employment

gains to a minimum, as domestic companies strove to be more

cost competitive with overseas suppliers.

The steel-producing industry also did not recover from

1998’s price declines. While the bulk of the declines occurred

in 1998, the recovery in prices has been slow. In mid-1999,

steel production was almost unchanged over the year, and capacity utilization actually fell slightly. The U.S. International

Trade Commission determined that domestic steel producers

had been unfairly harmed by the flood of cheap imports, and

then the United States negotiated agreements with Russia and

Brazil to limit steel imports from those countries. Demand for

domestically produced steel improved, and by the end of the

year, both steel production and capacity utilization were up

from 1998 levels. Employment in the primary metals industry

recovered slightly over the fourth quarter, after declining by

14,000 during the first 9 months of the year.

Weakness in Southeast Asian and emerging economies reduced the demand for U.S. exports, particularly of industrial

machinery, electrical equipment, and transportation equipment.

These three industries account for 30 percent of manufacturing employment, so suppressed demand for their output has a

large impact on overall manufacturing. An improvement in the

performance of the Asian economies in 1999 coincided with a

moderation in declines in monthly U.S. manufacturing employment by midyear. (See chart 4.) Employment declines in electrical and electronic equipment eased greatly in 1999 compared with 1998 (see chart 5), as job gains in the second half

of the year nearly offset continued losses in the first half. In

contrast, apparel and other textile products fared as poorly in

1999 as in 1998, losing another 9 percent of that industry’s

workforce and showing no signs of improvement. Employment

declines accelerated in industrial machinery, with 3 times the

number of jobs lost as in 1998; however, employment stabilized in the fourth quarter. Aircraft and parts also fared much

worse in 1999, in part because of delayed or canceled orders

from ailing countries in Southeast Asia. As was the case with

the apparel industry, the job losses in aircraft continued throughout the year.

Special factors affected employment in 1999. Two industries

had unusual employment movements in 1999 that were unrelated to general economic trends: Federal payrolls benefited

throughout the year from the preparation for the Census 2000,

and, due to changes in legislation, the home health care industry began to recover from steep job losses incurred in 1998.

Monthly swings in Federal employment in 1999 are largely

explained by hiring for the Census 2000.13 Most of the hiring

took place during three preparation phases that caused corresponding peaks in Federal Government employment. Over the

course of the year, total nonfarm employment averaged 19,000

higher than it would have been without the decennial workers.

Excluding census workers, the number of other Federal workers (which includes U.S. Postal Service workers and civilian

employees of the Department of Defense) fell throughout the

year, and the declines were more precipitous than in the past

few years.

Early in 1999, the home health care industry began to recover from more than a year of declines. The turnaround was

slow, however: after losing more than 8 percent of its

workforce during 1998, the industry grew by just 1 percent in

1999. (See chart 6.) The weak gains coincided with incremental relief from medicare restrictions that were put in place

in 1998. July 1, 1999, marked the end of “sequential billing,”

a Balanced Budget Act provision that seriously hurt cash flow

for home health agencies. This provision required medicare

claims to be submitted in chronological order; each claim

would then have to be paid or denied before another one could

be submitted. As a result, some agencies refocused their patients loads, shifting away from medicare and medicaid clients and toward private payers.

As the current economic expansion entered its 9th year in

1999, total civilian employment continued to increase and

the unemployment rate continued to decline. Workers in most

major demographic groups benefited from the improvements

in the job market.

Data from the CPS also depict a healthy job market in 1999.

Employment grew by about 1.9 million, slightly more than in

1998.14 The percentage of the population that was employed

(the employment-population ratio) reached a record-high 64.3

percent in the first quarter of 1999 and finished out the year at

that level. The number of unemployed persons fell by about

390,000 in 1999, and the unemployment rate continued to decline, reaching 4.1 percent by the fourth quarter—a 30-year

low. (See table 3 and chart 7.)

Among persons aged 20 and older, employment increased by

almost 1.8 million in 1999, compared with an increase of 1.4

million in 1998. Women accounted for a disproportionately large

share of the employment growth in 1999. Almost three-fifths of

the growth occurred among adult women, although they make

up less than half of total employment. This pattern has typified

the current expansion, with women accounting for more than

half of overall employment growth since 1991.15

The employment-population ratio for adult women reached

record highs in 1999, ending the year at 58.5 percent. For

men, the ratio was virtually unchanged over the year, at 74.0

percent. During the current expansion, the ratios for men and

The Job Market, 1999
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 11

Table 3. Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older, by selected characteristics,

 quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1998–99

[Numbers in thousands]

First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter

Civilian labor force ........................................... 138,321 139,058 139,144 139,394 139,880 1,501

Participation rate ........................................ 67.1 67.2 67.1 67.0 67.0 .0

Employed ..................................................... 132,208 133,077 133,214 133,526 134,153 1,889

Employment-population ratio...................... 64.1 64.3 64.2 64.2 64.3 .2

Unemployed ................................................. 6,114 5,981 5,930 5,868 5,727 –389

Unemployment rate .................................... 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 –.3

........................................................................

 Men, 20 years and older

Civilian labor force ........................................... 70,013 70,082 70,029 70,245 70,419 629

Participation rate ...................................... 76.8 76.9 76.6 76.6 76.6 –.1

Employed ..................................................... 67,519 67,642 67,559 67,805 68,044 730

Employment-population ratio .................... 74.1 74.2 73.9 74.0 74.0 .0

Unemployed ................................................. 2,494 2,440 2,470 2,440 2,375 –101

Unemployment rate .................................. 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.4 –.2

........................................................................

 Women, 20 years and older

Civilian labor force ........................................... 59,979 60,612 60,820 60,872 61,054 819

Participation rate ...................................... 60.5 60.8 60.8 60.7 60.7 .2

Employed ..................................................... 57,591 58,283 58,489 58,585 58,865 1,032

Employment-population ratio .................... 58.1 58.4 58.5 58.4 58.5 .4

Unemployed ................................................. 2,388 2,329 2,332 2,287 2,188 –214

Unemployment rate .................................. 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.6 –.5

........................................................................

 Both sexes, 16 to 19 years

Civilian labor force ........................................... 8,329 8,363 8,295 8,277 8,407 53

Participation rate ...................................... 52.7 52.5 51.8 51.5 52.2 –.5

Employed ..................................................... 7,098 7,151 7,166 7,137 7,243 124

Employment-population ratio .................... 44.9 44.8 44.7 44.4 44.9 .1

Unemployed ................................................. 1,232 1,212 1,128 1,141 1,164 –73

Unemployment rate .................................. 14.8 14.5 13.6 13.8 13.8 –1.1

........................................................................

 White

Civilian labor force ........................................... 115,850 116,349 116,352 116,535 116,788 1,012

Participation rate ...................................... 67.3 67.5 67.3 67.3 67.2 –.1

Employed ..................................................... 111,390 112,008 111,966 112,268 112,703 1,381

Employment-population ratio .................... 64.7 64.9 64.8 64.8 64.9 .3

Unemployed ................................................. 4,459 4,341 4,385 4,267 4,085 –367

Unemployment rate .................................. 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 –.3

........................................................................

 Black

Civilian labor force ........................................... 16,171 16,273 16,295 16,387 16,503 286

Participation rate ...................................... 65.9 65.9 65.7 65.8 66.0 .1

Employed ..................................................... 14,829 14,968 15,044 15,041 15,172 301

Employment-population ratio .................... 60.5 60.6 60.7 60.4 60.6 .1

Unemployed ................................................. 1,343 1,304 1,251 1,346 1,332 –15

Unemployment rate .................................. 8.3 8.0 7.7 8.2 8.1 –.2

........................................................................

 Hispanic origin

Civilian labor force ........................................... 14,470 14,503 14,571 14,698 14,893 649

Participation rate ...................................... 67.8 67.9 67.6 67.6 67.9 .6

Employed ..................................................... 13,406 13,561 13,590 13,750 13,984 792

Employment-population ratio .................... 62.8 63.5 63.1 63.2 63.7 1.5

Unemployed ................................................. 1,064 943 981 948 909 –142

Unemployment rate .................................. 7.4 6.5 6.7 6.4 6.1 –1.3

........................................................................

1

 Estimates of over-the-year changes have been adjusted to reflect revisions to population controls introduced in January 1999.

NOTE: Details for racial and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals

because data for the “other races” group are not presented and Hispanics are

included in both the white and black population groups.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

1999 Change, fourth

 quarter, 1998,

 to fourth

 quarter, 19991

Fourth quarter,

1998

Total

Characteristic
12 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

280

300

320

340

360

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jobs in oil and gas extraction

Price of West Texas intermediate oil

Chart 3. Employment in oil and gas extraction and oil prices, 1997–99, seasonally adjusted 

Employment

 (thousands)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Dollars

1997 1998 1999

1996 1997 1998 1999 

18,200

18,300

18,400

18,500

18,600

18,700

18,800

18,900

19,000

18,200

18,300

18,400

18,500

18,600

18,700

18,800

18,900

19,000

Chart 4. Manufacturing employment, 1996–99, seasonally adjusted 

Employment

 (thousands)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Employment

 (thousands)
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 13

women have continued the long-term pattern of convergence,

with the women’s ratio growing slightly faster than the men’s.

The number of unemployed adults decreased by about 320,000

in 1999. By the fourth quarter, the unemployment rate had

edged down to 3.4 percent for adult men and 3.6 percent for

adult women, the lowest rate in 26 years for men and in 31

years for women.

Women who maintained families showed marked improvement in their labor market situation in 1999. Employment for

these women increased by about 450,000 over the year, to 8.4

million; this figure compares with an increase of about 200,000

in 1998.16 In 1999, the percentage of such women who were

employed reached 65.6 percent, an over-the-year increase of

1.3 percentage points. The number of unemployed women

maintaining families edged down to about 550,000 in 1999,

and their unemployment rate declined to 6.1 percent.

The labor market situation changed little for teenagers (persons aged 16 to 19 years) in 1999. The unemployment rate of

teens improved slightly, ending the year at 13.8 percent, a low

rate not seen since the early 1970s. The size of the teenage

labor force—the sum of those who were employed and those

who were unemployed—was about about unchanged. The teenage labor force participation rate—the proportion of the population that is in the labor force—was also about unchanged.

During the current expansion, the teenage labor force participation rate has fluctuated, but shown no clear trend. However,

the rate is down substantially from a historical peak of almost

59 percent in the late 1970s. The decrease reflects, in large

part, a growing proportion of teens enrolled in school. In 1979,

67 percent of the teenage population was enrolled in school;

by 1999, the ratio had risen to 77.4 percent.17 Teenagers who

are attending school have a lower labor force participation rate

than those who are not attending, so an increase in the proportion of persons enrolled in school is often associated with a

lower overall labor force participation rate.

The labor force expanded in 1999 for whites, blacks, and

Hispanics. Since the first quarter of 1991 (the final quarter of

the 1990–91 recession, as officially defined), the Hispanic labor force has grown by 38 percent, largely a reflection of the

group’s strong population growth. This increase compares with

a 20-percent increase in the size of the black labor force and a

9-percent increase in the white labor force. In 1999, the labor

force participation rates were 67.9 percent for Hispanics, 67.2

percent for whites, and 66.0 percent for blacks.

The unemployment rate for whites ended the year at a threedecade low of 3.5 percent. Blacks and Hispanics both achieved

Table 4. Employment by occupation, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, fourth quarter, 1998–99, and median usual weekly

 earnings by occupation, annual average, 1999

Total, aged 16 and older ......................... $549 132,578 134,534 1,956 71,135 71,774 639 61,443 62,760 1,317

Managerial and professional specialty ............ 797 39,916 40,856 940 20,348 20,508 160 19,568 20,348 780

Executive, administrative, and managerial .. 792 19,496 19,700 204 10,828 10,684 –144 8,668 9,016 348

Professional specialty ................................. 800 20,420 21,156 736 9,520 9,824 304 10,900 11,332 432

.......................................................................

Technical, sales, and administrative support .. 488 38,547 39,325 778 13,766 14,187 421 24,780 25,138 358

Technicians and related support ................. 618 4,163 4,442 279 1,875 2,089 214 2,288 2,352 64

Sales occupations ...................................... 523 16,107 16,427 320 7,915 8,035 120 8,192 8,393 201

Administrative support, including clerical .... 447 18,276 18,456 180 3,976 4,063 87 14,300 14,393 93

.......................................................................

Service occupations ....................................... 336 17,838 17,525 –313 7,215 6,899 –316 10,623 10,626 3

Private household ....................................... 243 861 828 –33 45 36 –9 816 792 –24

Protective service ....................................... 592 2,388 2,324 –64 1,955 1,864 –91 433 459 26

Service, except private household

and protective .......................................... 313 14,589 14,373 –216 5,216 4,998 –218 9,374 9,374 0

.......................................................................

Precision production, craft, and repair ............ 594 14,398 14,894 496 13,121 13,516 395 1,277 1,379 102

Mechanics and repairers ............................ 621 4,772 4,708 –64 4,595 4,468 –127 178 240 62

Construction trades ..................................... 566 5,629 6,152 523 5,493 6,003 510 136 149 13

Other production, craft, and repair .............. 588 3,996 4,035 39 3,033 3,045 12 963 990 27

.......................................................................

Operators, fabricators, and laborers .............. 429 18,475 18,678 203 13,915 14,027 112 4,560 4,651 91

Machine operators, assemblers,

and inspectors ......................................... 423 7,757 7,385 –372 4,910 4,517 –393 2,847 2,867 20

Transportation and material moving ............ 513 5,516 5,803 287 4,948 5,186 238 569 618 49

Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers,

and laborers ............................................ 363 5,201 5,490 289 4,057 4,324 267 1,145 1,166 21

.......................................................................

Farming, forestry, and fishing ......................... 331 3,405 3,255 –150 2,771 2,637 –134 634 618 –16

1

 Over-the-year changes were not adjusted for revised population controls. SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Occupation

Total Men Women

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Median

usual

weekly

 earnings

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

19991

Fourth

quarter,

19991

Fourth

quarter,

19991

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1998
14 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

Electrical equipment

Apparel and other textiles 

Industrial machinery 

Aircraft and parts

12 10 8 6 4 2 0 2

1999

1998

Chart 5. Percent change in employment for selected manufacturing industries, 1998 and 1999 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Percent

January 1997 July 1997 January 1998 July 1998 January 1999 July 1999

625

650

675

700

725

625

650

675

700

725

Chart 6. Employment in home health care services, 1997–99, seasonally adjusted 

Employment

 (thousands)

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Employment Statistics survey.

Employment

 (thousands)

Employment in home health care services, 1997–99, seasonally adjusted
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 15

record-low unemployment rates in 1999.18 The black unemployment rate finished the year at 8.1 percent, the lowest on record

prior to 1999. For Hispanics, the unemployment rate reached a

record low in the first quarter and continued to decline in the last

half of the year, bottoming out at 6.1 percent in the fourth quarter. The unemployment rates for blacks and Hispanics remained

higher than that for whites in 1999, although the gap narrowed

slightly between Hispanics and whites; the gap between blacks

and whites showed no improvement.

Employment grew faster for minority workers than for whites

in 1999. The number of employed persons increased by about

2.0 percent for blacks, to 15.2 million; 6.0 percent for Hispanics,

to 14.0 million; and 1.2 percent for whites, to 112.7 million. The

number of persons employed as a percentage of the population

reached record highs for whites, blacks, and Hispanics during

1999 and ended the year strong: 64.9 percent, 60.6 percent, and

63.7 percent, respectively. Since the beginning of the current

expansion, the employment-population ratio has grown more for

blacks and Hispanics than for whites.

Employment increased in 1999 for persons aged 25 and

older who had attended college; employment was about unchanged for persons with no college experience.19 This difference continues the long-term trend in which the overall

workforce is becoming more educated, reflecting a decline in

the proportion of the population with no college experience.

For example, since 1992,20 the number of employed persons

with less than a high school diploma decreased by about

159,000, to 11.3 million, while the number of employed persons with a college degree increased by 7.4 million, to 35.0

million. In 1999, the unemployment rate improved for workTable 5. Employment by occupation, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, fourth quarter, 1998–99

Total White Black Hispanic

Total, aged 16 and older ........... 132,578 134,534 1,956 111,646 112,975 1,329 14,929 15,270 341 13,442 14,012 570

Managerial and professional

specialty ..................................... 39,916 40,856 940 34,774 35,384 610 3,086 3,333 247 1,932 2,009 77

 Executive, administrative,

and managerial .......................... 19,496 19,700 204 17,228 17,310 82 1,471 1,542 71 1,076 1,066 –10

 Professional specialty occupations 20,420 21,156 736 17,546 18,074 528 1,615 1,791 176 856 944 88

........................................................

Technical, sales, and administrative

support ........................................ 38,547 39,325 778 32,431 32,976 545 4,420 4,486 66 3,141 3,264 123

 Technicians and related support 4,163 4,442 279 3,455 3,676 221 465 475 10 282 266 –16

 Sales occupations ...................... 16,107 16,427 320 13,891 14,158 267 1,504 1,472 –32 1,260 1,281 21

 Administrative support,

including clerical ....................... 18,276 18,456 180 15,086 15,142 56 2,451 2,540 89 1,600 1,717 117

........................................................

Service occupations ........................ 17,838 17,525 –313 13,723 13,415 –308 3,258 3,175 –83 2,706 2,714 8

Private households ...................... 861 828 –33 700 661 –39 134 125 –9 272 237 –35

Protective services ...................... 2,388 2,324 –64 1,907 1,812 –95 433 445 12 198 197 –1

Service, except private

household and protective .......... 14,589 14,373 –216 11,116 10,942 –174 2,691 2,605 –86 2,236 2,280 44

........................................................

Precision production, craft,

and repair ...................................... 14,398 14,894 496 12,721 13,263 542 1,139 1,130 –9 1,872 2,034 162

Mechanics and repairers ............. 4,772 4,708 –64 4,215 4,181 –34 392 368 –24 500 509 9

Construction trades ...................... 5,629 6,152 523 5,077 5,622 545 391 390 –1 808 991 183

Other production, craft,

and repair ................................... 3,996 4,035 39 3,428 3,460 32 365 373 8 564 534 –30

........................................................

Operators, fabricators,

and laborers ................................. 18,475 18,678 203 14,856 14,915 59 2,852 2,993 141 2,995 3,222 227

Machine operators,assemblers,

and inspectors ........................... 7,757 7,385 –372 6,147 5,816 –331 1,187 1,159 –28 1,347 1,403 56

Transportation and material

moving ....................................... 5,516 5,803 287 4,522 4,719 197 845 952 107 684 725 41

Handlers,equipment cleaners,

helpers, and laborers................... 5,201 5,490 289 4,187 4,381 194 820 881 61 964 1,093 129

........................................................

Farming, forestry, and fishing .......... 3,405 3,255 –150 3,141 3,022 –119 174 153 –21 795 769 –26

........................................................ 1

 Over-the-year changes were not adjusted for revised population controls.

NOTE: Details for racial and Hispanic-origin groups will not sum to totals

because data for the “other races” group are not presented and Hispanics are

included in both the white and black population groups.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Change,

fourth

quarter,

1998,

to fourth

quarter,

19991

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1998

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Fourth

quarter,

1999

Occupation
16 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

Farming, forestry,

 and fishing

Operators, fabricators,

 and laborers

Precision production,

 craft, and repair

Service occupations

Technical, sales, and

 administrative support

Managerial and

 professional specialty

400 200 0 200 400 600 800 0

Women

Men

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Employment growth

1969 1973 1977 1981 1985 1989 1993 1997

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Percent

NOTE: Shaded regions represent recessions as designated by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Data are quarterly.

Percent

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Chart 7. Unemployment rate, 1969–99, seasonally adjusted

Chart 8. Over-the-year employment growth, by occupation and gender, fourth-quarter 1998–99
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 17

ers of all educational backgrounds, ending the year at 1.7 percent for college graduates, 2.6 percent for persons with some

college experience, but less than a bachelor’s degree, 3.3 percent for high school graduates, and 6.3 percent for persons

with less than a high school diploma.

Nearly half of the total employment growth over the year

was in the generally high-paying managerial and professional specialty occupations. Growth in these fields was particularly strong for women and blacks. The strongest gains

among men were in technical, sales, and administrative support occupations and in precision production, craft, and repair occupations.

Employment in managerial and professional specialty occupations expanded by 940,000 in 1999, accounting for about half

of total employment growth during the year.21 Employment

growth in these occupations has been disproportionately strong

for most of the current expansion. (Managerial and professional

specialty occupations made up 30 percent of total employment

in 1999.) Professional specialty occupations accounted for the

majority of the growth in the managerial and professional specialty category in 1999. Notable employment gains occurred in

many professional occupations, including computer systems

analysts and computer scientists, schoolteachers, lawyers, and

social workers. Technical, sales, and administrative support occupations also showed strong growth in 1999, accounting for

two-fifths of total employment gains. (See table 4.)

For women, total employment grew by about 1.3 million in

1999. Nearly three-fifths of this net growth (780,000) was in

the managerial and professional specialty fields. Employment

growth in professional specialty occupations was slightly stronger than in managerial occupations. Among the professional

occupations, female schoolteachers increased their numbers

rapidly. (Women accounted for the majority of growth in this

occupation.) Many women also found work in 1999 as registered nurses and social workers. Outside managerial and professional specialty occupations, most of the remaining employment gains among women were in the technical, sales,

and administrative support occupations, particularly the lower

paying sales and administrative support jobs. However, for

every woman who found a job in these occupations, two found

a job in managerial and professional specialty occupations.

(See table 4 and chart 8.)

For men, employment expanded by about 640,000 over

the year, with the largest gains in technical, sales, and administrative support occupations (420,000). Technicians and related support occupations, which tend to pay more than sales

and administrative jobs, accounted for about half of these employment gains. Precision production, craft, and repair occupations accounted for the second-largest employment increase

for men in 1999 (400,000), with most of the growth in construction trades. Among men, professional specialty occupations grew by about 300,000, although employment in executive, administrative, and managerial occupations decreased.

Employment in managerial and professional specialty occupations grew particularly rapidly for blacks in 1999, increasing by 8 percent, or 250,000. More than two-thirds of this

growth was in the professional specialty fields and was well

spread among the occupations. The number of blacks employed

as operators, fabricators, and laborers also grew noticeably

(140,000); much of the growth was among transportation and

material moving workers. For blacks, the managerial and professional specialty and the operator, fabricator, and laborer occupations accounted for the majority of employment growth

in 1999. (See table 5 and chart 9.)

 For whites, employment in managerial and professional

specialty occupations rose by about 610,000 in 1999, only

slightly more than in technical, sales, and administrative support occupations (550,000) and precision production, craft,

and repair occupations (540,000). Professional specialty jobs

accounted for the vast majority of gains in the managerial and

professional specialty group. Within the technical, sales, and

administrative support category, growth was strongest for technicians and salesworkers. Construction trades accounted for

nearly all of the employment gains in the precision production, craft, and repair field.

For Hispanics, there was comparatively little employment

growth in managerial and professional specialty fields. Instead,

employment growth was spread out among the remaining occupational categories. The number of Hispanics working as

operators, fabricators, and laborers grew by about 230,000 in

1999, accounting for about two-fifths of the total employment

gains among Hispanics. Within this broad “blue-collar” category, many Hispanics found jobs as handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers. Precision production, craft, and repair occupations—particularly the construction trades—and

technical, sales, and administrative support occupations—notably administrative support—contributed about half of total

employment growth for Hispanics.

Demographic changes in the makeup of the labor force can

affect various labor market indicators, including the unemployment rate. Accordingly, it is important to take such

changes into account in making comparisons across years.

Among the demographic variables that can influence the unemployment rate over time are the age and sex compositions

of the labor force. A simple exercise reveals that the unemployment rate would have been higher in 1999 had the composition of the labor force by age been the same as in past

years (for example, 1969 and 1978).

In 1999, the average unemployment rate was 4.2 percent,22

the lowest annual rate since 1969, when the rate averaged 3.5

percent for the year. Given that the jobless rate was at its lowest in 30 years, it is reasonable to ask whether major demographic changes over that period could be partly responsible

for the improvement in unemployment. Age is a particularly
18 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

important variable in this regard, because the unemployment

rates for young workers (aged 16 to 24 years) tend to be much

higher than those for older workers. For example, the unemployment rates for workers in the 16-to-19- and 20-to-24-year

age groups were 13.9 percent and 7.5 percent, respectively, in

1999; these figures compare with an average unemployment

rate of 3.1 percent for workers aged 25 and older. Thus, a decrease in the percentage of young workers in the labor force

would exert downward pressure on the unemployment rate,23

all else remaining equal. Indeed, in 1999, persons aged 16 to

24 years made up about 16 percent of the labor force, the

lowest proportion since the late 1950s; in 1969 they accounted

for about 21 percent, and in 1978 the proportion of these individuals peaked at more than 24 percent.24 If the age composition of the labor force in 1999 had been the same as in

1969, but each component age group retained its 1999 rate of

unemployment, the overall unemployment rate in 1999 would

have been about 0.4 percentage point higher. The unemployment rate would have been even higher—by about 0.7 percentage point—if the age composition in 1999 had been the

same as in 1978.

The composition of the labor force by sex also can influence

unemployment rates. This occurs when the unemployment rate

for one gender is higher than for the other. For example, in 1969,

the unemployment rate for women, 4.7 percent, was much higher

than that for men, 2.8 percent. As long as the jobless rate for

women was higher than that for men, the influx of women into

the job market—which was quite pronounced during the 1970s—

exerted upward pressure on the unemployment rate. However,

the unemployment rates for men and women have been quite

close for the past two decades, thus limiting the effects of the

changing composition of the labor force by sex.25

After accounting for inflation, median weekly earnings of

full-time wage and salary workers increased in 1999, marking the third consecutive year of gains in real earnings. Earnings increased slightly faster for women than for men. Earnings rose for whites, blacks, and Hispanics, and there were

gains for adults of all educational backgrounds.

Median26 usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers were $549 in 1999, up 5.0 percent from $523 in

1998.27 The earnings gain was greater than the 2.2-percent

rise in prices from 1998 to 1999, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U). In 1999,

median weekly earnings for men who usually work full time

were $618, compared with $473 for women. Earnings were up

for both men and women, but the gain was slightly larger for

women. The ratio of women’s to men’s earnings thus edged up

slightly, to 76.5 percent.28 Over the course of the current expansion, the ratio has increased by 2.3 percentage points. During the previous expansion,29 the ratio of women’s to men’s

earnings increased by 5.5 percentage points.

The continuing disparity in earnings between men and

women reflects many different factors, only some of which

are measurable. Variables include differences in educational

attainment, length of experience in the workforce, and discrimination. In addition, part of the pay difference reflects the occupational makeup of the groups. For example, although

women accounted for about half of total employment in managerial and professional specialty occupations in 1999, within

that broad group, they were less likely than men to work in

higher paying occupations. Men were more likely to be emTable 6. Quartiles and selected deciles of usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers, by educational

 attainment, annual averages, 1998–99

 Number of

 Educational attainment workers (in Second

 thousands) First decile First quartile quartile Third quartile Ninth decile

(median)

 1999

Total, 25 years and older ................................. 86,352 $284 $393 $592 $872 $1,260

Less than a high school diploma .................. 8,459 215 267 346 494 680

High school graduate, no college ................. 27,314 270 349 490 688 932

Some college or associate’s degree ............ 23,949 300 404 580 798 1,079

College graduates, total ............................... 26,630 430 607 860 1,243 1,749

 1998

Total, 25 years and older ................................. 84,549 275 379 572 836 1,198

Less than a high school diploma .................. 8,576 204 257 337 486 679

High school graduate, no college ................. 27,131 259 338 479 667 899

Some college or associate’s degree ............ 23,210 291 391 558 774 1,040

College graduates, total ............................... 25,632 410 586 821 1,173 1,657

NOTE: Ten percent of all full-time wage and salary workers earn less

than the upper limit of the first decile; 25 percent earn less than the upper

limit of the first quartile; 50 percent earn less than the upper limit of the

second quartile, or median; 75 percent earn less than the upper limit of the

third quartile; and 90 percent earn less than the upper limit of the ninth

decile.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Upper limit of—

The Job Market, 1999
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 19

Table 7. Unemployment rates for regions and divisions, quarterly averages, seasonally adjusted, 1998–99

First quarter Second quarter Third quarter Fourth quarter

Northeast region ......................................................... 4.5 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2

New England division ............................................. 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.0 3.1

Middle Atlantic division ........................................... 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.6

Midwest region ........................................................... 3.6 3.4 3.6 3.5 3.4

East North Central division ..................................... 3.9 3.7 3.9 3.8 3.7

West North Central division .................................... 3.0 2.7 2.9 3.0 2.6

South region ............................................................... 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0

South Atlantic division ............................................. 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.7

East South Central division ..................................... 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2

West South Central division .................................... 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.4

West region ................................................................ 5.3 5.1 5.0 4.8 4.6

Mountain division .................................................... 4.2 3.9 4.2 4.1 3.9

Pacific division ........................................................ 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.9

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Local Area Unemployment Statistics program.

ployed as engineers, mathematical and computer scientists,

lawyers and judges, and physicians—some of the highest paid

professional occupations. Women, on the other hand, were

more likely to be employed in the lower paid professional occupations, such as schoolteachers, social workers, and registered nurses. Women accounted for three-fifths of the total

employed in service occupations, which include some of the

lowest paid workers. In the higher paying blue-collar fields—

precision production, craft, and repair occupations—women

accounted for only 9 percent of the employed.

Among the major racial and ethnic groups, median weekly

earnings rose by 5.1 percent for whites in 1999, to $573. Earnings rose by 4.5 percent for blacks, to $445, and by 4.1 percent for Hispanics, to $385. Differences in educational attainment, age, and experience—as well as discrimination in the

workplace—are but a few of the possible reasons for variations in earnings between minorities and whites. As with men

and women, the pay difference also reflects the occupational

makeup of the groups. For example, in 1999, only 12 percent

of whites were employed in the relatively low-paying service

occupations, while 22 percent of blacks and 20 percent of Hispanics were employed in those occupations. Thirty-one percent of whites were employed in the managerial and professional specialty occupations, in which pay is relatively high;

the corresponding figures were 21 percent for blacks and 15

percent for Hispanics.

Median weekly earnings increased for workers in all four

major educational groups in 1999. However, median weekly

earnings for those with a college degree increased the most,

rising by 4.8 percent over the year, to $860. Earnings for persons with some college experience or an associate’s degree

increased by 3.9 percent, to $580, while earnings for persons

with a high school diploma increased by 2.3 percent, to $490,

and earnings for those with less than a high school diploma

increased by 2.7 percent, to $346. (See table 6.)

For the 3rd consecutive year, earnings for the lowest paid

workers in all education groups increased. For persons with

less than a high school diploma, earnings at the upper limit of

the first decile30 increased 5.4 percent, to $215.31 Earnings at

the upper limit of the first decile increased 4.2 percent for

workers with a high school education, 3.1 percent for those

with some college or an associate’s degree, and 4.9 percent

for college graduates.

The highest paid workers within most educational groups

also saw earnings gains in 1999. The fastest earnings growth

occurred for those with a college degree; earnings at the ninth

decile increased by 5.6 percent for this group. Earnings at the

ninth decile increased by 3.8 percent for those with some college or an associate’s degree and by 3.7 percent for high school

graduates. Weekly earnings at the ninth decile were essentially

unchanged for workers with less than a high school education.

With the unemployment rate remaining at low levels in 1999

and employment continuing to increase, many economists

began looking closely for signs of tightness in the labor market. Some concern arose as to whether the supply of workers

would be adequate to meet demand. When employment growth

did not result in marked earnings pressure, questions were

raised regarding where the increase in workers came from

over the year. The CPS is able to provide information that can

be used, in a limited way, as a measure of the potential supply of workers. It is also able to show, to some degree, where

the newly employed came from in 1999.

One widely used indicator of the potential supply of workers is the number of persons outside of the labor force who

indicate that they currently want a job. In 1999, an average of

1999

Region and division

Fourth

quarter,

1998
20 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

Farming, forestry,

 and fishing

Operators, fabricators

 and laborers

Precision production,

 craft, and repair

Service occupations

Technical, sales, and

 administrative support

Managerial and

 professional specialty

400 200 0 200 400 600 800 0

Hispanic

Black

White

Chart 9. Over-the-year employment growth, by occupation and race or Hispanic origin,

 fourth quarter, 1998–99 

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey.

Employment growth

NOTE: Persons not in the labor force who “want a job” are neither working nor currently looking for work, but have simply expressed a

desire for a job. Marginally attached workers are persons who are not in the labor force, who want and are available for a job, and who have

looked for work sometime in the past 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but are not

currently looking. Discouraged workers are a subset of the marginally attached who are not currently looking for work because they believe

that no jobs are available or that there are none for which they would qualify.

SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Siurvey.

Not in the labor force

(63,817,000)

Discouraged workers

(273,000)

Marginally attached workers

(1,201,000) } } Persons not in the 

labor force who "want 

a job"

(4,568,000)

Chart 10. Persons not in the labor force, annual average, 1999

,
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 21

4.6 million persons who were not in the labor force reported

that they indeed wanted a job.32 Of these workers, 1.2 million

reported that they actually searched for work within the past

12 months and were available to take a job if one were offered. (This group is often referred to as those who are “marginally attached” to the labor force.) Among marginally attached workers, 273,000 had looked for work in the previous

12 months, but were not currently looking,33 because they believed that no jobs were available for them or that there were

none for which they would qualify. (This group is known as

discouraged workers.)34 (See chart 10.)

Since 1994,35 the number of persons outside the labor force

who want a job has declined by 27 percent. The number who

were currently available, and actually looked, for work within

12 months of being surveyed fell by 34 percent over the period.

The count of discouraged workers declined even more dramatically, by 45 percent between 1994 and 1999. These numbers

suggest that there may have been significant movement into the

labor force by those previously not participating.

The labor market is very dynamic, with changes in employment reflecting both changes in population and changes in the

proportion of the population that is employed; the latter are

largely tied to the performance of the economy. From 1998 to

1999, the civilian noninstitutional population increased by 2.2

million, and employment grew by about 2.0 million. Approximately three-fourths of net employment growth can be attributed to the growth in population. That is, if the proportion of

the population employed had not changed, employment still

would have increased by about 1.4 million. However, the percent of the population with jobs increased slightly, and that

increase accounted for the balance (about 550,000, or onefourth) of the total change in employment. The rise in the employment-population ratio reflected net declines in the proportions of the population who were unemployed or not in the

labor force, but who wanted a job.36

Strong job growth continued in the West and South, while

already tight labor markets in the Midwest tightened even

further.

37 The decline in unemployment was widespread, with

many States enjoying their lowest unemployment rates on

record.38

Unemployment. All four regions had lower unemployment

rates in 1999 than a year earlier. (See table 7.) The West, where

the rate declined rather steadily all year, registered the largest

decrease, –0.7 percentage point. Despite this improvement,

the West had the highest jobless rate, 4.6 percent, for the eighth

consecutive year. The Midwest had the lowest rate (3.4 percent), as it has in the fourth quarter of every year this decade.

At year’s end, three regions had unemployment rates at historical lows. The exception was the Northeast, where the rate

was only slightly above the 4.0 percent recorded during three

different quarters in 1988–89.

All nine geographic divisions experienced at least small

unemployment rate declines in 1999. The largest decreases

occurred in the Pacific (–0.8 percentage point) and West South

Central (–0.5 percentage point) divisions. The West North Central registered the lowest jobless rate (2.6 percent) among all

divisions for the 10th straight year, while the Pacific division

reported the highest rate (4.9 percent) for the 8th year in a row.

Only the Middle Atlantic division failed to equal or better its

historical low unemployment rate during some quarter of 1999.

Two-thirds of the States, including all those in the East North

Central and East South Central divisions, established new low

monthly unemployment rates in 1999.

Employment. Nonfarm payroll employment increased in all

four census regions in 1999, with the most rapid expansions

occurring in the West (2.5 percent) and South (2.2 percent).

The Midwest, with its continuing low unemployment rate, high

labor force participation rate, and high multiple-jobholding

rate, had the slowest rate of increase (0.8 percent). Labor shortages may have curtailed job growth in this region. Among the

nine geographic divisions, gains ranged from 0.7 percent in

the East North Central to 2.7 percent in the Mountain division.

The South Atlantic (2.6 percent), Pacific (2.4 percent), and

West South Central (2.3 percent) divisions also had aboveaverage growth rates. The following tabulation lists nonfarm

payroll employment growth in 1999 (in thousands):

 Region Number Percent

 West ..................... 673 2.5

 South ................... 996 2.2

 Northeast ............. 357 1.5

 Midwest ............... 254 .8

In all major industries, except mining and manufacturing,

every geographic region and division posted net job growth in

1999. In the two exceptions, the opposite was seen: widespread

declines across the United States. As in most recent years, services accounted for the greatest number of new jobs in each

region and geographic division. Trade ranked second in job

creation in all regions and divisions. Meanwhile, construction

had the highest growth rate in three regions (most notably, the

West, at 6.4 percent) and in seven divisions. Both transportation and services grew at greater than a 3.0-percent pace in the

West and South.

THE LABOR MARKET ENDED THE 20TH CENTURY on a strong note.

Employment grew by about 2 percent in 1999, with more than

half of the growth in services; job gains were particularly robust

in industries that provided services to other businesses. Construction, the industry with the highest percentage of job growth, benefited from the low interest rates that prevailed for much of the
22 Monthly Labor Review February 2000

The Job Market, 1999

year. Employment growth in retail trade, which was slightly ahead

of that in 1998, was sustained by strong consumer spending. Although employment declined in manufacturing, the rate of decrease slowed in the second half of the year.

Adult women accounted for a disproportionately large share

of employment growth in 1999, and the employment-population

ratio for adult women reached a record high. Employment grew

faster for minority workers than for whites over the year; employment growth was the fastest for Hispanics. Overall, almost

half of employment growth was in managerial and professional

specialty occupations. The unemployment rate ended the year at

4.1 percent, the lowest level in 30 years; workers of all major

demographic groups shared in the improvement, as did the four

regions of the United States. 

Notes

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS: The authors thank Kenneth LeVasseur a senior

economist in the Division of Local Area Unemployment Statistics, for his

analysis of regional employment and unemployment. Thanks also go to

Cynthia Engel, an economist formerly in the Division of Monthly Industry

Employment Statistics, for her contributions to this article.

1

 See box on page 4 for an explanation of conceptual differences between the two surveys.

2

 “Surveys find more employers relying on staffing firms,” Staffing

Industry Review, May/June 1998, p. 42.

3

 See “‘Just in Time’ Inventories and Labor: a Study of Two Industries,

1990–1998,” Report on the American Workforce (U.S. Department of Labor, 1999).

4

 Manpower, Inc., “No Relief of Labor-Shortage in New Year,” Employment Outlook Survey, Nov. 22, 1999; on the Internet at http://

www.manpower.com/news/1Q00.htm (visited December 1999).

5

 The Conference Board, “The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence

Climbs,” press release, Nov. 30, 1999; on the Internet at http://

www.conference-board.org/products/frames.cfm?main=c-consumer.cfm

(visited December 1999).

6

 Federal Reserve Board, Beige Book Summary, Sept. 22, 1999, December 1999; on the Internet at http://www.bog.frb.fed.us/fomc/

BeigeBook/1999/19990922/default.htm.

7

 The Consumer Price Index for personal computers and peripheral

equipment declined from 78.2 in 1998 to 53.5 in 1999.

8

 International Data Corporation, “IDC Forecasts Healthy Worldwide

Q4 1999 PC Demand with 17% Unit Growth Over Q4 1998—Consumer

Demand Offsets Quake and Y2K,” Dec. 7, 1999; on the Internet at http://

www.idc.com/Data/Personal/content/PS120799PR.htm.

9

 “Housing Opportunity Index Hits Record High in This Year’s First

Quarter,” June 17, 1999; on the Internet at http://www.nahb.org/news/

hoiqtrl.htm. (no longer accessible). The index, computed from 524,324

closings of new and existing homes in 181 markets, was the highest since

the National Association of Home Builders began tabulating it in 1992.

Through the first quarter, families earning the median U.S. household income of $47,800 could afford to buy an unprecedented 69.6 percent of

homes sold nationwide.

10 Shortages of skilled labor, wallboard, brick, and insulation were reported

by the National Association of Home Builders, and shortages of labor were

also cited in various “Beige Book” reports by the Federal Reserve.

11 Total orders were up 8.4 percent over the year. (See Survey of Current Business, August 1999 results, published Oct. 8, 1999.)

12 Bureau of Labor Statistics, Producer Price Index. The index for fuel has

caught up to 1997 levels, but prices of most other commodities have not.

13 See “Counting the Counters,” this issue, pp. 24–29.

14 Effective with data for January 1999, revised population controls

were introduced into the CPS. The revised controls resulted in an increase of

307,000 in the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population

aged 16 and older. They also increased the estimated size of the civilian

labor force and of employment by about 60,000 each, with more substantial, but offsetting, changes among population subgroups. Over-the-year

changes in this article, which are generally based on fourth-quarter-1998

to fourth-quarter-1999 comparisons, have been adjusted for the effects of

these revised population controls, unless otherwise noted.

15 The National Bureau of Economic Research determined that the

trough of the recession in the early 1990s occurred in March 1991; hence,

the expansion of the 1990s officially began in that month and year. However, it should be noted that many labor market indicators showed weakness well into 1992. The unemployment rate, for example, did not peak

until June 1992.

16 Over-the-year changes for women maintaining families were not adjusted for revised population controls because adjustment factors were not

available for the group.

17 The figure for 1979 was taken from the October 1979 supplement to

the CPS, from which information is obtained on school enrollment for teenagers. The figure for October 1999 is from data on school enrollment obtained in the basic CPS. October data are used because schools are usually

in session that month.

18 Historical data on unemployment are available beginning in 1954

for whites, 1972 for blacks, and 1973 for Hispanics.

19 Over-the-year changes in employment status by educational attainment have not been adjusted to reflect revised population controls because

adjustment factors were not available.

20 Data on educational attainment for years prior to 1992 are not strictly

comparable to data for 1992 and later years because of survey changes.

Prior to 1992, the respondents were asked how many years of school they

had completed. Beginning in 1992, respondents were asked instead about

the highest degree they had obtained.

21 Over-the-year changes in this part of the article were not adjusted for

revised population controls because adjustment factors were available neither for employment by race or Hispanic origin crossed by occupation nor

by detailed occupation alone.

22 In this part of the article, all data are annual averages.

23 The concept of a changing age distribution affecting unemployment

rates has been considered on numerous occasions in the literature over the

years; among the more recent contributions is an article by Lawrence F.

Katz and Alan B. Krueger (“The High-pressure U.S. Labor Market of the

1990s,” Working Paper #416 (Princeton, NJ, Princeton University, Industrial Relations Section, May 1999)), who found that the unemployment

rate in 1998 would have been about 5.2 percent (as opposed to the official

rate of 4.5 percent) if the age composition of the labor force had been the

same as the average over the 1960–98 period.

24 The year 1969 was chosen as a point of comparison because the

unemployment rate in 1999 was the lowest since 1969, on an annual-average basis. The year 1978 was chosen as another point because in that year

the proportion of young people in the labor force was the highest of all

years over the 1948–99 period.

25 Of course, age and sex are not the only variables that can exert an

influence on unemployment rates. Other factors may be race and educational attainment. A more indepth analysis would simultaneously take into

account a wide range of variables affecting unemployment.

26 The median (or upper limit of the second quartile) is the amount that
 Monthly Labor Review February 2000 23

divides a given earnings distribution into two equal groups, one having earnings above the median and the other having earnings below the median.

27 The data presented in this part of the article are annual averages, and

changes are based on a comparison of 1998 and 1999 figures. Over-theyear changes in median weekly earnings were not adjusted for revised population controls because adjustment factors were not available.

28 This aggregate ratio does not control for differences in many variables that may affect earnings. For more information on trends in the earnings of women, see Mary Bowler, “Women’s earnings: an overview,”

Monthly Labor Review, December 1999, pp. 13–21.

29 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that November 1982 was the trough of the 1981–82 recession and that the ensuing

expansion peaked in July 1990. The NBER designated March 1991 as the trough

of the 1990–91 recession. In this part of the article, the 1982–89 period is used

to represent the expansion of the 1980s and the 1992–99 period is used for the

expansion of the 1990s, because the cyclical low points in median weekly

earnings prior to the two expansions (in constant dollars, using the CPI-U and

CPI-U-X1) occurred in 1981 and 1991, respectively.

30 At the upper limit of the first decile, 90 percent of workers have

higher earnings, and 10 percent have lower earnings, than that limit. At the

upper limit of the ninth decile, 90 percent of workers have lower earnings

than that limit.

31 In the case of over-the-year earnings growth by educational attainment, the trends exhibited by the first decile are consistent with the observed trends at the first quartile. Likewise, the trends shown by the ninth

decile are consistent with those at the third quartile. At the upper limit of

the first quartile, 75 percent of workers have higher earnings, and 25 percent have lower earnings, than that limit. At the upper limit of the third

quartile, 25 percent of workers have higher earnings than the limit.

32 The data in this part of the article are annual averages.

33 Currently looking refers to job search activity conducted within the

4 weeks preceding the survey. Had these persons been looking within that

period, they would have been counted as unemployed rather than not in the

labor force.

34 An analysis of data on persons not in the labor force, but who indicate that they want a job, reveals that their labor market attachment is

generally weak. Specifically, Monica Castillo (“Persons outside the labor

force who want a job,” Monthly Labor Review, July 1998, pp. 34–42) found

that only 41 percent of persons not in the labor force in 1994 who said they

wanted a job were actually in the labor force a year later. The percentage

was slightly higher for marginally attached workers (48 percent). For discouraged workers, 45 percent were in the labor force in 1995.

35 In 1994, a redesigned CPS was introduced in which some of the categories of persons not in the labor force were subject to major changes in

definition. As a result, historical comparisons for these categories are possible only back to that year.

36 To calculate the change in employment that is due to population growth,

the employment-population ratio for the first period is applied to the population for the second, and the employment level that is derived is compared

with the employment level for the first period. To calculate the change in

employment due to shifts in the proportion of the population among the separate labor force categories, the change in the ratios for the other labor force

categories is divided by the change in the employment-population ratio, and

the change in employment not due to population growth is multiplied by the

resulting distribution. The change that results is the net change between labor force categories, not the gross flows between categories.

37 Estimates of both nonfarm employment and the labor force are the

sum of State estimates and are not intended to add to national totals. In addition, both series are subject to revision resulting from reestimation and updated seasonal adjustment effective with the release of January 2000 data.

The four regions and nine divisions are composed of the following States

and the District of Columbia: NORTHEAST: New England division—Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, Rhode Island, Vermont; Middle

Atlantic division—New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania; SOUTH: South Atlantic division—Delaware, District of Columbia, Florida, Georgia, Maryland, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia, West Virginia; East South

Central division—Alabama, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee; West South

Central division—Arkansas, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Texas; MIDWEST: East

North Central division—Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin; West

North Central division—Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North

Dakota, South Dakota; WEST: Mountain division—Arizona, Colorado, Idaho,

Montana, Nevada, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming; Pacific division—Alaska,

California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington.

38 Monthly data for the West region, Pacific division, and California begin in 1980; the other regional, divisional, and State series begin in 1978.