Monthly Labor Review November 2005 25

Labor Force

The U.S. labor force—the number of

persons working or looking for work—is

projected to reach 162.1 million in 2014, an

increase of nearly 15 million from the size of the

labor force in 2004.1 This increase represents an

annual growth rate of 1.0 percent, which is 0.2

percent lower than the annual growth rate of the

previous decade, 1994–2004. The growth of the

labor force is the result of simultaneous changes in

the civilian noninstitutional population and the

labor force participation rates of the various sex,

age, race, and Hispanic origin groups.2 During the

2004–14 period, the growth of the labor force will be

due entirely to population growth, as the overall

labor force participation rate is expected to decrease

slightly from the 2004 level.

The labor force in the next 10 years will be

affected by the aging of the baby-boom cohort,

those born between 1946 and 1964. This age

group will be between 50 and 68 years old in 2014

and is expected to show significant growth over

the 2004–14 period, as it did from 2002 to 2012.

The labor force will continue to age, with the

annual growth rate of the 55-and-older group

projected to be 4.1 percent, 4 times the rate of

growth of the overall labor force. By contrast,

the annual growth rate of the 25-to-54-year age

group will be 0.3 percent, and that of the young

age group consisting of 16-to-24-year-olds will

be essentially flat.

The women’s labor force is expected to grow

at an annual rate of 1.0 percent during the 2004–

14 projection period. (See table 1.) This rate is

Mitra Toossi is an

economist in the

Office of

Occupational

Statistics and

Employment

Projections, Bureau of

Labor Statistics. E-mail:

Toossi.Mitra@bls.gov

Mitra Toossi

The baby boomers’ exit from the prime-aged workforce

and their movement into older age groups

will lower the overall labor force participation rate,

leading to a slowdown in the growth of the labor force

Labor force projections to 2014:

retiring boomers

Employment outlook: 2004–14

slower than the group’s growth rate in the previous decade. Still, during the 2004–14 time

frame, the women’s labor force will increase at a

slightly faster rate than that of men, whose labor

force is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.9

percent. Men’s share of the labor force is expected to decrease from 53.6 percent to 53.2

percent in 2014. By contrast, the women’s share

is projected to increase from 46.4 percent in 2004

to 46.8 percent in 2014.

Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics

projects labor force levels for the next 10 years.

The projections in this article are for the 2004–14

period and are based on the assumption that a

long-term, full-employment economy in which

labor markets clear will prevail.3 In order to carry

out these projections, the labor force participation

rates are analyzed and projected for 136 different

groups, including the 2 sexes, 17 age groups, and 4

race and ethnicity categories. The basis of these

estimations are labor force participation trends, as

well as the behavior of each of the various detailed

categories in the past, according to data provided

by the BLS Current Population Survey (CPS) program. By multiplying the projected labor force

participation rates of each group by the Census

Bureau’s corresponding projected population, the

labor supply for each category and for the

economy as a whole are projected.

Population growth and changes in participation rates are the chief determinants of the

growth of the labor force. The Bureau’s main role

in labor force projections is to estimate future
26 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

participation rates. The key focus of this article, therefore, will

be on the trend of labor force participation rates and how this

trend will affect the size of the labor force in 2014.

In what follows, past population trends, in addition to

population projections of all the different sex, age, race, and

ethnic categories, are examined first. Then the different forces at

work that have affected the historical participation rates and that

are likely to continue to do so in the future are analyzed. Next,

past trends in the labor force participation rate, in addition to

projected rates for the 2004–14 period for the various groups, are

discussed. Then the projected level and growth rate of the

labor force over the 2004–14 period is considered, and

finally, the different aspects of an aging labor force are

examined.

Population

Determining factors: total resident population. The labor

force projections of the Bureau of Labor Statistics are based on

the population projections of the Census Bureau. Every 2 years,

the Census Bureau provides the Bureau of Labor Statistics with

a projection of the resident population of the United States. The

Census Bureau’s population projections are based on alternative

assumptions regarding future fertility, life expectancy, and net

international migration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics uses the

“middle series” population projections, which are based on the

mid-level assumption for each of the foregoing components and

is deemed the most likely path of future population changes.

However, for the 2004–14 round of labor force projections, the

Census Bureau did not carry out updates on its previously

published “Interim population projections of the Census,”

provided to the Bureau of Labor Statistics in 2003. The interim

projections included the results of the 2000 census, the 1997

Office of Management and Budget racial classifications system, and the population estimates created in 2001.4

 To take

advantage of the latest published population data, the previously published Census Bureau interim projections of the

population have been benchmarked to the actual 2003 and

2004 CPS data.

According to the Census Bureau, the interim population

projections were based on the cohort-component method,

which uses assumptions about the components of population

change: fertility, mortality, and international migration.5 From

the interplay among these components, different rates of

population growth lead to different rates of labor force growth.

Fertility. Fertility is often the largest component of population change. It also has the greatest cumulative effect of all

[Numbers in thousands]

Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

Total, 16 years and

older ....................... 113,544 131,056 147,401 162,100 17,512 16,345 14,699 15.4 12.5 10.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.4 1.2 1.0

16 to 24 years ....... 23,989 21,612 22,268 22,158 –2,377 656 –110 –9.9 3.0 –.5 21.1 16.5 15.1 13.7 –1.0 .3 .0

25 to 54 years ....... 74,661 93,898 102,122 105,627 19,237 8,224 3,505 25.8 8.8 3.4 65.8 71.6 69.3 65.2 2.3 .8 .3

55 years and older . 14,894 15,546 23,011 34,315 652 7,465 11,304 4.4 48.0 49.1 13.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 .4 4.0 4.1

Men ........................... 63,835 70,817 78,980 86,194 6,982 8,163 7,214 10.9 11.5 9.1 56.2 54.0 53.6 53.2 1.0 1.1 .9

Women ...................... 49,709 60,239 68,421 75,906 10,530 8,182 7,485 21.2 13.6 10.9 43.8 46.0 46.4 46.8 1.9 1.3 1.0

One race:

White ...................... 98,492 111,082 121,086 129,936 12,590 10,004 8,850 12.8 9.0 7.3 86.7 84.8 82.1 80.2 1.2 .9 .7

Black ...................... 12,033 14,502 16,638 19,433 2,469 2,136 2,795 20.5 14.7 16.8 10.6 11.1 11.3 12.0 1.9 1.4 1.6

Asian1 .................... 3,019 5,472 6,271 8,304 2,456 799 2,033 81.4 14.6 32.4 2.7 4.2 4.3 5.1 6.1 1.4 2.8

All other groups2 ....... (3

) (3) 3,406 4,427 ... ... 1,021 ... ... 30.0 ... ... 2.3 2.7 ... ... 2.7

Hispanic origin .......... 7,451 11,975 19,272 25,760 4,524 7,297 6,488 60.7 60.9 33.7 6.6 9.1 13.1 15.9 4.9 4.9 2.9

Other than Hispanic

origin ....................... 106,093 119,081 128,129 136,340 12,988 9,048 8,211 12.2 7.6 6.4 93.4 90.9 86.9 84.1 1.2 .7 .6

White NonHispanic ............... 91,296 100,462 103,202 106,373 9,166 2,740 3,171 10.0 2.7 3.1 80.4 76.7 70.0 65.6 1.0 .3 .3

1984 1994 2014 2004

Group

1994–

2004

2004–

14

Percent distribution

1984 2004 2014 1994

Percent change

1984–

94

1994–

2004

2004–

14

1984–

94

Level Change Annual growth

 rate (percent)

2004–

14

1994–

2004

1984–

94

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian

only” as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the

2000 census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race

category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the

“Asian only” race category with 2000 census weights.

2

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) thosed classed as of multiple

racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native

or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 3

 Data for “All other groups” are not available for 1984 or 1994.

Table 1.
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 27

of the components on population growth, because each extra

birth adds not only to the next year’s population, but also to

the projected population for the person’s entire life span,

which is roughly 75 years.6

 In the long run, the fertility

assumptions are the most crucial for national population

projections.7

 Actual historical data are provided by the

National Center for Health Statisticsand are used as a basis

for projecting future fertility trends.8

Mortality. The Census Bureau mortality rate projections are

based on data on deaths provided by the National Center for

Health Statistics and the Census Bureau’s own population

projections. There are significant mortality differences by sex,

race, and ethnicity groups in the United States. In general, life

expectancy has increased for all groups in the 20th century.

Among the different components of population change, life

expectancy at birth changes very slowly and is the most stable.

Because, in the developed countries, mortality happens

overwhelmingly at the high end of the age cohorts, it does not

have a significant impact on labor force projections.9

Immigration. Of the three components of population change,

immigration is the most uncertain and the hardest to project. In

contrast to changes in fertility and mortality, which are slow and

take years to materilize, immigration is the only component of

population change having a direct impact on all age groups. An

increase in the level of immigration within the different sex, age,

race, and ethnic groups can vastly change the composition of

the population and hence that of the labor force.

During 1987 and 1988, as a result of the 1986 Immigration

Reform and Control Act, a large number of immigrants attained

legal status. These immigrants in turn sponsored the legal

immigration of their immediate relatives without being subject

to numerical limits. As a part of this trend, a considerable

number of people from Mexico and various Central American

nations attained legal status as well. As a result, according to

the projections of the Census Bureau, immigration from these

source countries is projected to reach a peak at around 2010

and gradually decrease to much lower numbers.10

Immigration has been the major source of racial and ethnic

diversity of the U.S. population and labor force.11 Hispanics and

Asians in particular have seen their shares of the labor force

increase through immigration in the past several decades.

Immigration also affects the age distribution of the population.

Migrants in general, and especially Hispanic migrants, are largely

in younger age categories, so both the level and share of the

foreign born in the population, as well as the age structure of the

population, are affected by their numbers. Immigrants come to

the United States in search of job opportunities, higher wages,

and brighter futures for themselves and their children. They are

usually in younger age brackets with higher fertility rates, and

because they come here to work, they have high labor force

participation rates.

Determining factors: civilian noninstitutional population.

The Census Bureau projects the resident population of the

United States by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. For these

projections to be used as the basis for BLS labor force projections,

several tasks have to be performed. First, the number of youths

0–15 years of age in the population has to be subtracted from the

resident population to find the population older than 16 years.

Second, the number of people in the Armed Forces by age,

sex, race, and ethnicity must be subtracted from the result of

step 1 to obtain an estimate of the civilian population. The

institutional population then must be subtracted from the

civilian population to measure the civilian noninstitutional

population in each of the various categories.

The composition of the civilian noninstitutional population is

shown in table 2. The civilian noninstitutional population was

196.8 million in 1994 and 223.4 million in 2004, an increase of

approximately 26.5 million. The growth of the civilian noninstitutional population was 1.3 percent on an annual basis

between 1994 and 2004. The Bureau expects that, during the

2004–2014 period, the growth rate of the civilian noninstitutional

population will slow to 1.0 percent, so that the projected civilian

noninstitutional population will be 247.2 million in 2014. This

increase will add nearly 24 million to the population of 2004.

Table 2 also shows the composition and the shares of the

youth, prime-aged, and older civilian noninstitutional population for the different decades. The group aged 16 to 24 years

represented 16.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional

population in 2004 and will represent 15.2 percent of that

population in 2014. The prime-aged group’s (25 to 54 years)

share was 55.3 percent of the civilian noninstitutional population in 2004 and is projected to decrease to 51.1 percent in

2014. The highest growth rate in this age category is the 1.0

percent projected for 25- to 34-year-olds, a group that contains

the age cohorts of the “baby-boomer echoes.”

The segment of the civilian noninstitutional population

aged 55 years and older increased its relative share from 26.2

percent in 1994 to 28.4 percent in 2004. This group is projected

to attain about a 34-percent share in 2014. The fastest-growing

age group in this category is those 65 to 74 years, with a 3.5-

percent annual growth rate; this group is followed by those

55 to 64 years of age, with a comparable 3.1-percent annual

growth rate. In 2014, baby boomers will be in the 50- to-68-

year-old age group, increasing the growth of the civilian

noninstitutional population in these age categories.

The civilian noninstitutional population of men stood at

107.7 million in 2004 and is projected to be 120 million in 2014.

The civilian noninstitutional population of women, which was

nearly 115.5 million in 2004, is projected to be 127.2 million in

2014.
28 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

[Number in thousands]

Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected

2014

Total, 16 years

and older................. 176,383 196,814 223,357 247,239 20,431 26,543 23,882 1.1 1.3 1.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

 16 to 24 years ........ 35,423 35,549 36,419 37,469 126 870 1,050 .0 .2 .3 20.1 18.1 16.3 15.2

 16 to 19 years ..... 14,735 17,196 16,222 15,903 2,461 –974 –319 1.6 –.6 –.2 8.4 8.7 7.3 6.4

 20 to 24 years ..... 20,688 18,353 20,197 21,566 –2,335 1,844 1,369 –1.2 1.0 .7 11.7 9.3 9.0 8.7

 25 to 54 years ....... 92,476 112,618 123,410 126,423 20,142 10,792 3,013 2.0 .9 .2 52.4 57.2 55.3 51.1

 25 to 34 years ..... 39,999 41,306 38,939 43,063 1,307 –2,367 4,124 .3 –.6 1.0 22.7 21.0 17.4 17.4

 35 to 44 years ..... 30,251 41,534 43,226 40,171 11,283 1,692 –3,055 3.2 .4 –.7 17.2 21.1 19.4 16.2

 45 to 54 years ..... 22,226 29,778 41,245 43,189 7,552 11,467 1,944 3.0 3.3 .5 12.6 15.1 18.5 17.5

 55 years and older .. 48,486 51,647 63,528 83,345 3,161 11,881 19,817 .6 2.1 2.8 27.5 26.2 28.4 33.7

 55 to 64 years ..... 22,052 20,635 28,919 39,336 –1,417 8,284 10,417 –.7 3.4 3.1 12.5 10.5 12.9 15.9

 65 years and

older .................. 26,434 31,012 34,609 44,009 4,578 3,597 9,400 1.6 1.1 2.4 15.0 15.8 15.5 17.8

 65 to 74 years .. 16,288 18,249 18,181 25,764 1,961 –68 7,583 1.1 .0 3.5 9.2 9.3 8.1 10.4

 75 years and

older ................ 10,146 12,763 16,429 18,245 2,617 3,666 1,816 2.3 2.6 1.1 5.8 6.5 7.4 7.4

Men, 16 years

and older................. 83,605 94,355 107,710 120,007 10,750 13,355 12,297 1.2 1.3 1.1 47.4 47.9 48.2 48.5

 16 to 24 years ........ 17,494 16,277 18,359 18,841 –1,217 2,082 482 –.7 1.2 .3 9.9 8.3 8.2 7.6

 16 to 19 years ..... 7,386 7,203 8,234 8,018 –183 1,031 -216 –.3 1.3 –.3 4.2 3.7 3.7 3.2

 20 to 24 years ..... 10,108 9,074 10,125 10,823 –1,034 1,051 698 –1.1 1.1 .7 5.7 4.6 4.5 4.4

 25 to 54 years ........ 45,039 55,349 60,773 62,704 10,310 5,424 1,931 2.1 .9 .3 25.5 28.1 27.2 25.4

 25 to 34 years ..... 19,596 20,361 19,358 21,584 765 –1,003 2,226 .4 –.5 1.1 11.1 10.3 8.7 8.7

 35 to 44 years ..... 14,719 20,443 21,255 19,919 5,724 812 –1,336 3.3 .4 –.6 8.3 10.4 9.5 8.1

 45 to 54 years ..... 10,724 14,545 20,160 21,201 3,821 5,615 1,041 3.1 3.3 .5 6.1 7.4 9.0 8.6

 55 years and older .. 21,073 22,728 28,578 38,462 1,655 5,850 9,884 .8 2.3 3.0 11.9 11.5 12.8 15.6

 55 to 64 years ..... 10,285 9,810 13,894 18,956 –475 4,084 5,062 –.5 3.5 3.2 5.8 5.0 6.2 7.7

 65 years and

older .................. 10,788 12,918 14,684 19,506 2,130 1,766 4,822 1.8 1.3 2.9 6.1 6.6 6.6 7.9

 65 to 74 years ... 7,076 8,109 8,294 12,170 1,033 185 3,876 1.4 .2 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.7 4.9

 75 years and

older ................ 3,713 4,809 6,391 7,336 1,096 1,582 945 2.6 2.9 1.4 2.1 2.4 2.9 3.0

Women,

16 years

and older ............. 92,778 102,460 115,547 127,232 9,682 13,087 11,685 1.0 1.2 1.0 52.6 52.1 51.7 51.5

 16 to 24 years ........ 17,929 16,272 18,061 18,629 –1,657 1,789 568 –1.0 1.0 .3 10.2 8.3 8.1 7.5

 16 to 19 years ..... 7,349 6,993 7,989 7,885 –356 996 –104 –.5 1.3 –.1 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.2

 20 to 24 years ..... 10,580 9,279 10,072 10,744 –1,301 793 672 –1.3 .8 .6 6.0 4.7 4.5 4.3

 25 to 54 years ........ 47,436 57,269 62,636 63,719 9,833 5,367 1,083 1.9 .9 .2 26.9 29.1 28.0 25.8

 25 to 34 years .... 20,403 20,945 19,581 21,479 542 –1,364 1,898 .3 –.7 .9 11.6 10.6 8.8 8.7

 35 to 44 years .... 15,532 21,091 21,970 20,252 5,559 879 –1,718 3.1 .4 –.8 8.8 10.7 9.8 8.2

 45 to 54 years ..... 11,501 15,233 21,085 21,988 3,732 5,852 903 2.9 3.3 .4 6.5 7.7 9.4 8.9

 55 years and older . 27,413 28,919 34,950 44,883 1,506 6,031 9,933 .5 1.9 2.5 15.5 14.7 15.6 18.2

 55 to 64 years ..... 11,768 10,825 15,025 20,380 -943 4,200 5,355 –.8 3.3 3.1 6.7 5.5 6.7 8.2

 65 years and

older .................. 15,645 18,094 19,925 24,503 2,449 1,831 4,578 1.5 1.0 2.1 8.9 9.2 8.9 9.9

 65 to 74 years ... 9,212 10,140 9,887 13,594 928 –253 3,707 1.0 –.3 3.2 5.2 5.2 4.4 5.5

 75 years and

older ................ 6,433 7,955 10,038 10,909 1,522 2,083 871 2.1 2.4 .8 3.6 4.0 4.5 4.4

White,16 years

and older................. 152,347 165,555 182,643 197,212 13,208 17,088 14,569 .8 1.0 .8 86.4 84.1 81.8 79.8

Men ........................ 72,723 80,059 89,044 96,770 7,336 8,985 7,726 1.0 1.1 .8 41.2 40.7 39.9 39.1

Women ................... 79,624 85,497 93,599 100,442 5,873 8,102 6,843 .7 .9 .7 45.1 43.4 41.9 40.6

Black, 16 years

and older................. 19,348 22,879 26,065 30,655 3,531 3,186 4,590 1.7 1.3 1.6 11.0 11.6 11.7 12.4

Men ........................ 8,654 10,258 11,656 14,023 1,604 1,398 2,367 1.7 1.3 1.9 4.9 5.2 5.2 5.7

Women ................... 10,694 12,621 14,409 16,632 1,927 1,788 2,223 1.7 1.3 1.4 6.1 6.4 6.5 6.7

1984 2004 1994 2014

Group

Table 2.

1994–

2004 2004–14

Percent distribution

1984 1994 2004 2014

Annual growth rate

1984–94 1994–

2004 2004–14 1984–94

Level Change

See footnotes at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 29

Labor force participation

Different forces at work. Economists generally view the labor

force participation rate as one of the key indicators of the state of

the labor market and an important input into the economy’s

potential for creating goods and services. The projection of the

labor force participation rate is based on historical CPS annual

averages of the labor force participation rates by age, sex, race,

and ethnicity. Each age, sex, race, and ethnic group exhibits

different socioeconomic trends and thus different labor force

participation rates. The time series for all these various groups

are smoothed and the trends extrapolated. The final overall

participation rate is then the weighted average of the varying

participation rates of the different sex, age, race, and ethnic

groups. The weights are the populations of each group. In

attempting to understand the forces that have been at work to

affect labor force participation rates, questions such as the

following are asked: What impact does the participation rate of

men and women have on the overall labor force participation

rate? How does the behavior of the different age groups of the

population influence the overall labor force participation rate?

What impact do the differing participation rates of the various

race and ethnic groups have on the overall participation rate?

How do demographic and compositional changes in the

population change the overall labor force participation rate?

What is the impact of the structural changes in the economy

on the labor force participation rate? and How do cyclical

factors affect the labor force participation rate?

 The labor force participation rate reflects the labor market

behavior of different segments of the population.12 Changes

in the overall and detailed labor force participation rates are

the result of a combination of factors, including changes in

the demographic composition of the population, as well as

cyclical and structural changes in the economy. Each of these

factors affects labor force participation rates in various ways.

Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and

projected 2014

Asian, 16 years

and older1 ...... 4,688 8,380 9,520 12,635 3,692 1,140 3,115 6.0 1.3 2.9 2.7 4.3 4.3 5.1

Men ............... 2,226 4,038 4,530 5,931 1,812 492 1,401 6.1 1.2 2.7 1.3 2.1 2.0 2.4

Women .......... 2,462 4,342 4,990 6,704 1,880 648 1,714 5.8 1.4 3.0 1.4 2.2 2.2 2.7

All other groups2 (

3

) (3) 5,129 6,737 ... 5,129 1,608 ... ... 2.8 ... ... 2.3 2.7

Men ............... (3

) (3) 2,481 3,283 ... 2,481 802 ... ... 2.8 ... ... 1.1 1.3

Women .......... (3

) (3) 2,648 3,454 ... 2,648 806 ... ... 2.7 ... ... 1.2 1.4

Hispanic origin,

16 years and

older .............. 11,479 18,118 28,109 37,246 6,639 9,991 9,137 4.7 4.5 2.9 6.5 9.2 12.6 15.1

Men ............... 5,662 9,104 14,417 18,972 3,442 5,313 4,555 4.9 4.7 2.8 3.2 4.6 6.5 7.7

Women .......... 5,817 9,014 13,692 18,274 3,197 4,678 4,582 4.5 4.3 2.9 3.3 4.6 6.1 7.4

Other than

Hispanic origin,

16 years and

older .............. 164,904 178,696 195,248 209,993 13,792 16,552 14,745 .8 .9 .7 93.5 90.8 87.4 84.9

Men ............... 77,943 85,251 93,293 101,035 7,308 8,042 7,742 .9 .9 .8 44.2 43.3 41.8 40.9

Women .......... 86,961 93,446 101,855 108,958 6,485 8,409 7,103 .7 .9 .7 49.3 47.5 45.6 44.1

White nonHispanic,

16 years and

older .............. 141,221 149,473 156,556 162,826 8,252 7,083 6,270 .6 .5 .4 80.1 75.9 70.1 65.9

Men ............... 67,262 71,962 75,615 79,164 4,700 3,653 3,549 .7 .5 .5 38.1 36.6 33.9 32.0

Women .......... 73,959 77,511 80,940 83,662 3,552 3,429 2,722 .5 .4 .3 41.9 39.4 36.2 33.8

Age of babyboomers ......... 20 to 38 30 to 48 40 to 58 50 to 68 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

1984 2004 1994 2014

Group

Table 2.

1994–

2004 2004–14

Percent distribution

1984 2004 2014 1994

Annual growth rate

1984–94 1994–

2004 2004–14 1984–94

Level Change

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian only”

as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the 2000

census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the “Asian only” race category

with 2000 census weights.

[Numbers in thousands]

2

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) thosed classed as of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian

and Alaska Native or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 3 Data for “All other groups” are not available for 1984 or 1994.
30 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

Demographic/compositional change. The demographic

composition of a population reflects the share of men and

women and the different age, race, and ethnic groups within

that population. Since the second decade of the 1900s, several

population-related events have occurred in the United States

with a long-lasting impact on future labor markets. The impact

of these events appeared after a roughly 16-year lag, when

the population cohorts involved entered the labor force. The

events in question are as follows:

• In the late 1920s and early 1930s, there was a noticeable

reduction in birthrates, a phenomenon referred to as

the “birth dearth.” Today, the age cohort born during

those years is mostly 75 years and older and is by and

large out of the labor force.

• Between 1946 and 1964, the U.S. fertility rate increased

substantially, and approximately 78 million people were

born. This huge segment of the population, called the

“baby boomers,” were between the ages of 40 and 58

years in 2004 and will be between the ages of 50 and 68

years in 2014.

• Between 1965 and 1976, the number of births decreased once again. The population born during this

time, called the “baby bust,” will constitute part of

the prime-aged worker group 25 to 54 years of age

from 2004 to 2014. The baby-bust population is much

smaller than the baby-boom population, and this

difference in their numbers will contribute to the

decrease in the growth of the labor force during

those years.

• Finally, the “baby-boom echo” comprises the children

born to the baby-boom generation after 1976 and until

2000. A part of this cohort already entered the labor

force in 2004 and will be in the prime-aged workforce by

2014.

A prime example of a demographic change affecting the labor

force participation rate is the aging of the baby-boom generation.

In 2000, baby boomers were aged 36 to 54 years and were in the

group with the highest participation rates: the prime-aged group

25 to 54 years old. The participation rate for women in this group

was 76.7 percent and for men was 91.6 percent, so that the overall

participation rate of the group was 84.0 percent. The participation

rate of the next-older age group, that 55 years and older, was 32.4

percent, so the difference between the two age groups was 52

percentage points. With the passage of every year after 2000, a

segment of the baby-boomer population passes into the 55-

years-and-older age group and thus moves from a group with a

high participation rate in the labor force to an age category with

a much lower participation rate, causing the overall participation

rate to decrease.

The U.S. labor market is currently experiencing the negative

demographic compositional effect just described, wherein the

population moves from an age group with a higher participation

rate to an age group with a lower participation rate. In contrast, a

positive demographic compositional effect was experienced in

the 1970s when baby boomers were increasingly joining the

prime-aged workforce and causing an increase in the labor force

participation rate.

Meanwhile, during the 2004–14 timeframe, the baby-bust

population will be in the prime-aged work group, with very high

participation rates. However, because the baby-bust cohorts are

much smaller than those of the baby boomers, their numbers

applied to their respective labor force participation rates will not

be able to compensate for the large cohorts of baby boomers

leaving the prime-aged group and moving into a group with much

lower participation rates. The result is a decrease in the overall

labor force participation rate and a slower rate of growth of the

labor force.

Structural change. Long-term changes in tastes, preferences,

and educational attainment, as well as technological changes,

among others, cause the economy to create or eliminate certain

skills, industries, and occupations, leading to structural change

in the economy. The increase in school attendance in the past

couple of decades can be considered a structural change with a

permanent impact on the labor market. During that period, young

people increased their school attendance and decided to stay in

school longer, in effect making a capital investment in themselves for a higher return on their education throughout their

lives.

During the past several decades, the number of students

enrolled in high school, college, and summer school has

increased, resulting in a decline in the overall labor force

participation rate of youths, especially those 16 to 19 years.

According to research by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, more of

the workforce in the 16- to 24-year-old age group reported going

to school as one of the main reasons for their nonparticipation in

the labor force in 2001 than their counterparts had reported a

decade earlier.13 In addition to rising school enrollment, decreases

in the labor force participation rates for both students and

nonstudents contributed to the overall decline in teen labor force

participation.14 (See table 3.)

A structural change has the potential to exaggerate a

cyclical effect. For example, the rising school attendance of

youths (a structural change) strengthened the impact of the

recession of 2001 (a cyclical effect). The combination of structural

and cyclical factors has resulted in the current decrease in youth

participation rates to new low levels.

Another structural change that has taken place in the labor

market is the narrowing of the gap between women’s participation rates at all age levels and men’s rates at those same

levels. The continually increasing participation rate of women
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 31

started in the 1930s and expanded rapidly in the 1970 and

1980s. Since the 1990s, the women’s participation rate has

continued its ascent, although at a decreasing rate. The recent

deceleration in women’s participation is another factor contributing to the downward trend in overall participation rates

since 2000.

Historically, structural changes have been more important

than cyclical changes to the labor force 55 years and older.

The continued trend in “early retirements” of the 55-and-older

workforce is another structural change facing the U.S. economy. This phenomenon affects the overall labor force

participation rate in a negative way, especially at a time when

the early cohorts of the baby boomers have already passed

into this age group and are near to retiring in vast numbers.

However, the older workforce also has experienced increasing

labor force participation rates since the late 1980s, an increase

that has continued even during economic downturns, suggesting that the phenomenon may be due more to the impact

of a long-term structural change than to a short-term cyclical

one.

Cyclical change. Cyclical changes are changes that happen

in response to business cycles and are generally short term.

Cyclical factors such as economic expansions and recessions

cause short-term changes in the overall labor force participation

rates. Usually, the rates increase during expansions and decline

during economic downturns.

Historically, cyclical factors have had the greatest impact on

the labor force participation of the young. The youth labor force

is particularly vulnerable during recessions; youths are usually

the first to be fired and the last to be hired. During economic

downturns and weak job markets, this group tends to stay in

school longer, experiencing a lower labor force participation rate.

Table 4 gives the historical labor force participation rates of

selected age groups, including youths, during the economic

downturns of 1981–82, 1991–92, and 2001.

Enrollment of 16- to 24-year-olds in school and labor force participation by enrollment status, 1994 and 2004

Total, 16 to 24

years .............. 43.9 50.6 6.7 66.4 49.6 79.3 29.7 61.1 43.8 78.9 35.1 –5.3 –5.8 –0.4

 16 to 19 years 65.6 73.6 8.0 52.7 44.0 69.2 25.2 43.9 35.6 66.8 31.2 –8.8 –8.4 –2.4

 20 to 24 years 27.0 32.1 5.1 77.0 60.8 83.0 22.2 75.0 58.9 82.7 23.8 –2.0 –1.9 –.3

 20 to 21 years 37.3 43.9 6.6 72.1 58.1 80.3 22.2 70.3 57.1 80.5 23.4 –1.8 –1.0 .2

 22 to 24 years 20.9 24.4 3.5 80.0 63.7 84.2 20.5 78.2 61.0 83.7 22.7 –1.8 –2.7 –.5

White, 16 to 24

years .............. 43.4 49.6 6.2 69.5 53.5 81.7 28.2 63.8 46.9 80.4 33.5 –5.7 –6.6 –1.3

 16 to 19 years 65.3 72.9 7.6 56.4 47.9 72.6 24.7 47.1 38.9 69.2 30.3 –9.3 –9.0 –3.4

 20 to 24 years 26.6 31.1 4.5 79.5 64.1 85.0 20.9 77.1 61.8 84.0 22.2 –2.4 –2.3 –1.0

 20 to 21 years 37.8 43.1 5.3 75.0 61.5 83.1 21.6 72.5 60.1 81.9 21.8 –2.5 –1.4 –1.2

 22 to 24 years 20.0 23.1 3.1 82.1 67.0 85.9 18.9 80.1 63.9 85.0 21.1 –2.0 –3.1 –.9

Black, 16 to 24

years .............. 43.4 51.6 8.2 54.9 36.3 69.2 32.9 51.2 31.8 72.0 40.2 –3.7 –4.5 2.8

 16 to 19 years 66.2 74.8 8.6 38.5 30.2 54.8 24.6 31.4 23.0 56.5 33.5 –7.1 –7.2 1.7

 20 to 24 years 24.1 31.7 7.6 68.8 50.6 74.6 24.0 68.3 49.5 76.9 27.4 –.5 –1.1 2.3

 20 to 21 years 29.6 41.5 11.9 62.5 45.2 69.8 24.6 62.8 44.4 75.9 31.5 .3 –.8 6.1

 22 to 24 years 20.4 25.2 4.8 72.9 55.8 77.3 21.5 71.8 55.1 77.5 22.4 –1.1 –.7 .2

Asian, 16 to 24

years .............. (1) 65.8 ... (1) (1) (1) (1) 48.0 33.6 75.6 42.0 ... ... ...

 16 to 19 years (1) 83.0 ... (1) (1) (1) (1) 28.4 22.8 55.3 32.5 ... ... ...

 20 to 24 years (1) 53.9 ... (1) (1) (1) (1) 61.5 45.1 80.7 35.6 ... ... ...

 20 to 21 years (1) 67.4 ... (1) (1) (1) (1) 54.6 45.1 74.2 29.1 ... ... ...

 22 to 24 years (1) 45.4 ... (1) (1) (1) (1) 65.9 45.2 83.2 38.0 ... ... ...

Hispanic,

 16 to 24 years 35.0 40.7 5.7 61.6 42.5 71.8 29.3 59.4 36.5 75.2 38.7 –2.2 –6.0 3.4

 16 to 19 years 58.9 67.7 8.8 44.4 33.6 59.8 26.2 38.2 26.8 61.9 35.1 –6.2 –6.8 2.1

 20 to 24 years 17.8 21.5 3.7 74.0 63.8 76.2 12.4 74.5 58.1 79.0 20.9 .5 –5.7 2.8

 20 to 21 years 24.9 29.2 4.3 72.4 63.4 75.3 11.9 71.1 55.9 77.4 21.5 –1.3 –7.5 2.1

 22 to 24 years 13.3 16.7 3.4 75.0 64.2 76.6 12.4 76.7 60.5 79.9 19.4 1.7 –3.7 3.3

 1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian only” as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the

 2000 census. Information on Asians was not available in 1994.

1994 2004 Change

Total

Group

Table 3.

1994

Enrolled

in

school

Not

enrolled

in

school

Proportion enrolled

in school Labor force participation, 1994

Changes, 1994–2004

Difference

Enrolled

in

school

Not

enrolled

in

school

Total

2004

Enrolled

in

school

Not

enrolled

in

school

Difference Total
32 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

The participation rate of both the 16- to 19-year and the 20- to

24-year age group fell during the last three recessions. In the

recession of 2001, the labor force participation rate of 16- to 19-

year-olds dropped by 2.4 percentage points from the previous

year, to 49.6 percent. The rate has been declining every year

since then, falling to a low of 43.9 percent in 2004, a sizable

decrease of 8.1 percentage points from the 2000 figure. During

the same 2000–04 timeframe, the labor force participation rate of

20- to 24-year-olds also decreased, by 2.8 points. The falling

participation rates of youths—in particular, the 16- to 19-year

age group—is one of the main reasons for the decline in the

overall participation rate during the past several years. During

economic expansions, the labor force participation of young

workers—especially teenagers—is expected to increase;

however, during the expansion of the 1990s, the participation of

youths did not expand, but instead started a downward trend

that has continued to the present. Thus, the continuing drop in

youth labor force participation rates may be mainly a structural

phenomenon.

The prime-aged workforce is least sensitive to economic

downturns, because its members are already firmly established

in the labor market. By contrast, like the youth labor force, the 55-

years-and-older workforce is more sensitive to cyclical changes.

Clearly, then, a combination of demographic, structural, and

cyclical factors has affected the overall labor force participation

rate, as well as the participation rates of the different age, race,

sex, and ethnic groups, in the past. The continued operation of

one or more of these factors in the future will make it difficult

for the overall participation rate to reach and maintain its

former peak attained in the late 1990s.

Determining factors: labor force participation. During the

1990s, the U.S. economy experienced strong growth in gross

domestic product and productivity. In recent years, the economy has weathered the recession of 2001, the burst of the

high-tech bubble, and corporate accounting scandals.15

Meanwhile, the aggregate labor force participation rate, which

reached a plateau at 67.1 percent over the 1997–2000 period,

has exhibited a gradual decline that seems to be continuing.

Registering 66.8 percent in 2001, the rate continued its gradual

slide, decreasing to 66.6 percent in 2002, 66.2 percent in 2003,

and, finally, 66.0 percent in 2004. The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that the overall participation rate will decrease

slightly, to 65.6 percent, in 2014. (See table 5.)

Chart 1 shows the participation rates for different age

groups since 1948. The overall labor force participation rate

was 58.8 percent in 1948. The rate increased for several

decades and peaked at 67.1 percent from 1997 to 2000. Since

then, the overall participation rate has declined by 0.2 percent

each year, finally reaching 66.0 percent in 2004, an increase of

7.2 percentage points over the 1948 level and a decline of 1.1

percentage points in the last 4 years.

Historical labor force participation rates for selected age groups, 1980–2004

1980 ............................................................ 56.7 77.2 78.6 55.7 12.5

1981 ............................................................ 55.4 77.3 79.3 55.0 12.2

1982 ............................................................ 54.1 77.1 79.8 55.1 11.9

1983 ............................................................ 53.5 77.2 80.1 54.5 11.7

1984 ............................................................ 53.9 77.6 80.7 54.2 11.1

1985 ............................................................ 54.5 78.2 81.5 54.2 10.8

1986 ............................................................ 54.7 78.9 82.0 54.0 10.9

1987 ............................................................ 54.7 78.9 82.5 54.4 11.1

1988 ............................................................ 55.3 78.7 82.9 54.6 11.5

1989 ............................................................ 55.9 78.7 83.4 55.5 11.8

1990 ............................................................ 53.7 77.8 83.5 55.9 11.8

1991 ............................................................ 51.6 76.7 83.4 55.5 11.5

1992 ............................................................ 51.3 77.0 83.6 56.2 11.5

1993 ............................................................ 51.5 77.0 83.4 56.4 11.2

1994 ............................................................ 52.7 77.0 83.4 56.8 12.4

1995 ............................................................ 53.5 76.6 83.5 57.2 12.1

1996 ............................................................ 52.3 76.8 83.8 57.9 12.1

1997 ............................................................ 51.6 77.6 84.1 58.9 12.2

1998 ............................................................ 52.8 77.5 84.1 59.3 11.9

1999 ............................................................ 52.0 77.5 84.1 59.3 12.3

2000 ............................................................ 52.0 77.8 84.0 59.2 12.9

2001 ............................................................ 49.6 77.1 83.7 60.4 13.0

2002 ............................................................ 47.4 76.4 83.3 61.9 13.2

2003 ............................................................ 44.5 75.4 83.0 62.4 14.0

2004 ............................................................ 43.9 75.0 82.8 62.3 14.4

Year 16–19 years 20–24 years 25–54 years 55–64 years

Table 4.

65 years and older
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 33

Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected

2014

Total, 16 years and older ................................. 64.4 66.6 66.0 65.6 2.2 –0.6 –0.4 0.3 –0.1 –0.1

 16 to 24 years ............................................... 67.7 66.4 61.1 59.1 –1.3 –5.3 –2.0 –.2 –.8 –.3

 16 to 19 years ............................................ 53.9 52.7 43.9 39.3 –1.2 –8.8 –4.6 –.2 –1.8 –1.1

 20 to 24 years ............................................ 77.6 77.0 75.0 73.8 –.6 –2.0 –1.2 –.1 –.3 –0.2

 25 to 54 years ............................................... 80.7 83.4 82.8 83.5 2.7 –.6 .7 .3 –.1 .1

 25 to 34 years ............................................ 81.8 83.2 82.7 85.4 1.4 –.5 2.7 .2 –.1 .3

 35 to 44 years ............................................ 82.4 84.8 83.6 83.0 2.4 –1.2 –.6 .3 –.1 –.1

 45 to 54 years ............................................ 76.5 81.7 81.8 82.3 5.2 .1 .5 .7 .0 .1

 55 years and older ......................................... 30.7 30.1 36.2 41.2 –.6 6.1 5.0 –.2 1.9 1.3

 55 to 64 years ............................................ 54.2 56.8 62.3 65.2 2.6 5.5 2.9 .5 .9 .5

 65 years and older ......................................... 11.1 12.4 14.4 19.7 1.3 2.0 5.3 1.1 1.5 3.2

 65 to 74 years ............................................ 15.3 17.2 21.9 26.9 1.9 4.7 5.0 1.2 2.4 2.1

 75 years and older ...................................... 4.3 5.4 6.1 9.6 1.1 .7 3.5 2.3 1.2 4.6

Men, 16 years and older .................................. 76.4 75.1 73.3 71.8 –1.3 –1.8 –1.5 –.2 –2 –.2

 16 to 24 years ............................................... 72.8 70.3 63.9 60.5 –2.5 –6.4 –3.4 –.3 –.9 –.5

 16 to 19 years ............................................ 56.0 54.1 43.9 38.1 –1.9 –10.2 –5.8 –.3 –2.1 –1.4

 20 to 24 years ............................................ 85.0 83.1 79.6 77.0 –1.9 –3.5 –2.6 –.2 –.4 –.3

25 to 54 years ............................................... 93.9 91.6 90.5 90.9 –2.3 –1.1 .4 –.2 –.1 .0

 25 to 34 years ............................................ 94.3 92.6 91.9 95.3 –-1.7 –.7 3.4 –.2 –.1 .4

 35 to 44 years ............................................ 95.4 92.8 91.9 90.7 –2.6 –.9 –1.2 –.3 –.1 –.1

 45 to 54 years ............................................ 91.2 89.1 87.5 86.6 –2.1 –1.6 –.9 –.2 –.2 –.1

 55 years and older ......................................... 41.8 37.8 43.2 46.3 –4.0 5.4 3.1 –1.0 1.3 .7

 55 to 64 years ............................................ 68.5 65.5 68.7 68.7 –3.0 3.2 .0 –.4 .5 .0

 65 years and older ......................................... 16.3 16.9 19.0 24.6 .6 2.1 5.6 .4 1.2 2.6

 65 to 74 years ............................................ 20.9 21.7 26.7 31.5 .8 5.0 4.8 .4 2.1 1.7

 75 years and older ......................................... 7.5 8.6 9.0 13.1 1.1 .4 4.1 1.4 .5 3.8

Women, 16 years and older ............................. 53.6 58.8 59.2 59.7 5.2 .4 .5 .9 .1 .1

 16 to 24 years ............................................... 62.8 62.5 58.7 57.8 –.3 –3.8 –.9 .0 –.6 –.2

 16 to 19 years ............................................ 51.8 51.3 43.8 40.4 –.5 –7.5 –3.4 –.1 –1.6 –.8

 20 to 24 years ............................................ 70.4 71.0 70.5 70.6 .6 –.5 .1 .1 –.1 .0

 25 to 54 years ............................................... 68.2 75.3 75.3 76.3 7.1 .0 1.0 1.0 .0 .1

 25 to 34 years ............................................ 69.8 74.0 73.6 75.4 4.2 –.4 1.8 .6 –.1 .2

 35 to 44 years ............................................ 70.2 77.1 75.6 75.4 6.9 –1.5 –.2 .9 –.2 .0

 45 to 54 years ............................................ 62.9 74.6 76.5 78.1 11.7 1.9 1.6 1.7 .3 .2

 55 years and older ......................................... 22.2 24.0 30.5 36.8 1.8 6.5 6.3 .8 2.4 1.9

 55 to 64 years ............................................ 41.7 48.9 56.3 61.9 7.2 7.4 5.6 1.6 1.4 1.0

 65 years and older ......................................... 7.5 9.2 11.1 15.9 1.7 1.9 4.8 2.1 1.9 3.7

 65 to 74 years ............................................ 11.1 13.6 18.0 22.9 2.5 4.4 4.9 2.1 2.8 2.4

 75 years and older ......................................... 2.5 3.5 4.3 7.2 1.0 .8 2.9 3.4 2.1 5.3

White ................................................................. 64.6 67.1 66.3 65.9 2.5 –.8 –.4 .4 –.1 –.1

 Men ................................................................. 77.1 75.9 74.1 72.7 –1.2 –1.8 –1.4 –.2 –.2 –.2

 Women ............................................................ 53.3 58.9 58.9 59.3 5.6 .0 .4 1.0 .0 .1

Black, 16 years and older................................ 62.2 63.4 63.8 63.4 1.2 .4 –.4 .2 .1 –.1

 Men ................................................................. 70.8 69.1 66.7 64.7 –1.7 –2.4 –2.0 –.2 –.4 –.3

 Women ........................................................... 55.2 58.7 61.5 62.3 3.5 2.8 .8 .6 .5 .1

Asian, 16 years and older1 .............................. 64.3 65.3 65.9 65.7 1.0 .6 –.2 .2 .1 .0

 Men ................................................................. 74.0 74.3 75.0 74.4 .3 .7 –.6 .0 .1 –.1

 Women ........................................................... 55.6 56.9 57.6 58.1 1.3 .7 .5 .2 .1 .1

All other groups2 ............................................... (3

) (3) 67.0 65.7 ... ... –1.3 ... ... –.2

 Men ................................................................. (3

) (3) 74.0 72.3 ... ... –1.7 ... ... –.2

 Women ........................................................... (3

) (3) 60.3 59.5 ... ... –.8 ... ... –.1

Hispanic origin, 16 years and older ................. 64.9 66.1 68.6 69.2 1.2 2.5 .6 .2 .4 .1

Men ................................................................ 80.6 79.2 80.4 78.6 –1.4 1.2 –1.8 –.2 .2 –.2

Women ........................................................... 49.7 52.9 56.1 59.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 .6 .6 .6

Other than Hispanic origin, 16 years and

older ............................................................... 64.3 67.0 65.6 64.9 2.7 –1.4 –.7 .4 –.2 –.1

 Men ................................................................. 76.0 75.2 72.2 70.5 –.8 –3.0 –1.7 –.1 –.4 –.2

 Women ........................................................... 54.0 62.1 63.7 59.7 8.1 1.6 –4.0 1.4 .3 –.6

White non-Hispanic, 16 years and older ......... 64.6 67.2 65.9 65.3 2.6 –1.3 –.6 .4 –.2 –.1

 Men ................................................................. 76.8 75.5 73.0 71.5 –1.3 –2.5 –1.5 –.2 –.3 –.2

 Women ........................................................... 53.5 60.1 59.3 59.5 6.6 –.8 .2 1.2 –.1 .0

1984 1994 2004 2014

Group

Table 5.

1984–94 1994–

2004 2004–14

Participation rate Percentage-point change Annual growth rate

1984–94 1994–

2004 2004–14

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian only”

as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the 2000

census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race category with

1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the “Asian only” race

category with 2000 census weights.

2 The “All other groups” category includes (1) thosed classed as of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 3 Data for “All other groups” are not available for 1984 or 1994.
34 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

Age: youths 16 to 24 years. The youth labor market consists

of the teenage group aged 16 to 19 years and young adults aged

20 to 24 years. Historically, the two groups have exhibited

different labor force participation rates. The difference is partially

explained by the differing shares of students and nonstudents in

the two age groups. Students are less likely to participate in the

labor force, so increases in school attendance at the secondary

school and college level cause decreases in the participation of

youth in the labor force. (See chart 2.)

Of all the various age and sex categories of the labor force, 16-

to 19-year-old men have experienced the largest decline in labor

force participation and have had the most impact on the decrease

in the overall participation rate.(See table 5.) Between 1994 and

2004, the overall participation rate of 16- to 19-year-olds fell from

52.7 percent to 43.9 percent, a decrease of 8.8 percentage points.

Most of this decrease was the result of the drop in the labor force

participation rate of 16- to 19-year-old men, a group that saw its

participation rate decline from 54.1 percent in 1994 to 43.9 percent

in 2004, a decrease of 10.2 percentage points for the decade. The

Bureau projects that the downward trend in the participation of

16- to 19-year-old men will continue, reaching 38.1 percent in

2014, a decrease of an additional 5.8 percentage points from the

2004 value. As a result, the overall rate for 16- to 19-year-olds

will drop to 39.3 percent in 2014.

The labor force participation rate of 16- to 19-year-old

women was 51.3 percent in 1994 and 43.8 percent in 2004, a

decrease of 7.5 percentage points over the 10-year period.

The Bureau projects that the rate will decrease by a further 3.4

percentage points, to 40.4 percent, by 2014.

In the projected decline of overall labor force participation

during the 2004–14 period, the continuing downward slope

of the participation of the 16- to 19-year-old age group—for

both sexes, but especially for men—is an important factor. As

table 4 shows, the participation rate of teens declined

significantly in the early 1990s, increased slightly for several

years, and then declined quite steadily from 52.8 percent in 1998

to 43.9 percent in 2004. Table 3 shows that the proportion of the

youth population enrolling in school increased considerably

from 1994 to 2004. Youths 16 to 19 years especially increased

their enrollment, a full 8 percentage points, from 65.6 percent in

1994 to 73.6 percent in 2004.

The increase in school enrollment of teens during 1994–2004,

including enrollment in summer school, was sizable. The labor

force participation rate of 16- to 24-year-olds enrolled in school

in 1994 was 49.6 percent. In 2004, the rate fell to 43.8 percent. The

labor force participation rate of 16- to 24-year-olds not enrolled

in school in 1994 was 79.3 percent. By 2004, the rate had declined

to 78.9 percent. The same trend held for teens not enrolled in

Chart 1. Labor force participation rates, 1948–2004 

Percent Percent

1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

25–54 years

20–24 years

16–19 years

55–64 years

65 years and older

Overall
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 35

school: their participation rate fell from 69.2 percent in 1994 to

66.8 percent in 2004. Other BLS research also points to the fact

that the rise in teen enrollment in high schools and colleges,

both in general and in the summer in particular, during the 1994–

2004 timeframe contributed to the downward pressure on the

teenage, as well as the overall, labor force participation rate.16

Another important factor in the participation rate of 16- to 24-

year-olds is the relative shares of student and nonstudent

populations in that age group. These two populations have

different participation rates. The probability of nonstudents

participating in the workforce is much higher. Thus, the

participation rates of the 20- to 24-year-old age groups are higher

than those of the 16- to 19-year-old age groups, because the

former have a larger proportion of nonstudents among them and

their attachment to the labor force is accordingly stronger.

The rise in school attendance rates during the past couple of

decades is shown in table 3. These increasing rates have had a

major impact on the labor force participation rate of both the 16-

to 19-year-old group and the 20- 24-year-old group. The projection of school enrollment rates suggests that the higher school

enrollments are by no means transitory. More young people

than ever are continuing their education, and these young age

cohorts are staying in school longer in the hope of pursuing

better paying careers and becoming more marketable and

competitive in the labor market. The participation rate of 20- to

24-year-olds, which stood at 75.0 percent in 2004, also is projected

to decline, to 73.8 percent, in 2014. On the basis of both their

current participation rates and their increasing trend of school

attendance, the participation rates of these young groups are

not projected to increase anytime soon.

Age: prime-aged workers 25 to 54 years. Of all the age groups,

the prime-aged workers have the strongest ties to the labor

market. As table 5 shows, the participation rate for this group

was 83.4 percent in 1994 and 82.8 percent in 2004 and is projected

to be at 83.5 percent in 2014.

The labor force participation of women increased drastically

in the 1970s and 1980s. An array of social, economic, and demographic changes helped push women’s participation rates to

record levels. However, during the same timeframe, the men’s

labor force participation rate for this age group declined. Despite

the decreasing participation of men, the increase in the labor

force participation of women pushed the overall labor force

participation rate upward. In the 1990s, the participation rate for

men continued to fall, while the rate for women continued to rise

steadily, such that the aggregate labor force grew to its highest

level ever.

Chart 2. Youth labor force participation rates, 1980–2004 and projected 2014

Percent Percent

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

20–24 years

18–19 years

16–19 years

16–17 years
36 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

Both men and women are responsible for the rise in the overall

labor force participation rate of this age group over the 2004–14

period. The participation rate of 25- to 54-year-old men is

projected to increase slightly from its 2004 level of 90.5 percent,

to reach 90.9 percent in 2014. The participation rate of women in

the same age group, which was 75.3 percent in 2004, is projected

to increase to 76.3 percent in 2014.

The baby boomers have been the main factor responsible for

keeping the prime-aged group’s participation rates strong and

steady. In 2000, approximately 78 million baby boomers were in

the prime-aged group, the oldest 54 years and the youngest 36

years.

In addition, in the same year, the members of the baby-bust

generation also were in the prime-aged workforce. The babybust population, which was between the ages of 25 and 35 in

2000, has attained more education and possesses more skills, on

average, than the group's earlier cohorts. Because educational

attainment is positively linked to high participation in the

workforce, the labor force participation rate of the 25- to 54-yearold age group still has room to expand in the next decade.

Age: workers 55 years and older. The labor force participation

rate declines sharply once the population reaches the 55-yearsand-older age groups. The participation rate of the older workforce is approximately half that of the prime-aged workers. Nevertheless, since the mid-1980s, the labor force participation rates of

the older age groups have consistently increased, and they also

are projected to increase in the 2004–14 period. (See chart 3.)

The participation rate of men 55 years and older stood at 43.2

percent in 2004, an increase of 5.4 percentage points over the

1994 figure. This group’s rate is expected to increase to 46.3

percent in 2014. The participation rate of women 55 years and

older, 24.0 percent in 1994, reached 30.5 percent in 2004. The

Bureau projects that, in 2014, the rate of this group will have

increased by another 6.3 percentage points, to reach 36.8 percent.

The baby boomers’ exit from the prime-aged workforce

(with the highest participation rates) into the 55-years-andolder age groups (with much lower participation rates) will

ultimately lower the overall labor force participation rate,

leading to a slowdown in the growth of the labor force. However, the projected increases in the participation rates of the

older workforce during the next decade, coupled with the

sheer size of the group, might partially offset the decrease in

the overall participation rate.

The willingness of the 55-years-and-older age group to

participate in the labor force in the future or to retire is a

multidimensional decision. Factors relevant to a mature person’s

decision to retire or to continue working include the individual’s

Chart 3. Labor force participation of the mature workforce, 1980–2004 and projected 2014

Percent Percent

1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

60–64 years

55–59 years

70–74 years

65–69 years

75 years and older

55 years and older
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 37

health, retirement income, pensions, savings, and amount of

Social Security expected.

In 2000, the full retirement age for receiving the maximum

Social Security benefit was raised, and the size of the benefit

was lowered for each month a recipient is younger than the

normal retirement age. Thus, since 2000, workers must decide

either to continue working or to retire earlier with lower

benefits. The increase in the full retirement age is one factor

leading to the rise in the labor force participation rates of the

older age groups.

One of the most important factors in the increase in the

labor force participation rate of older workers has been governmental policies and legislation aimed at eliminating mandatory

retirement and outlawing age discrimination in the workplace.

In addition, the removal of age restrictions and taxes on the

work of older individuals in 2000 further caused the labor

force participation rate of this group to increase. Yet another

factor is that higher income individuals may have more

motivation to remain in the labor force, because their opportunity cost of retiring is greater than that of workers who earn

a lower income.

Sex. Historically, men and women have had a different impact on the overall labor force participation rate. The men’s

participation rate, which reached its all-time high of 86.6 percent

in 1948, has decreased gradually since then, registering 76.4

percent in 1984, 75.1 percent in 1994, 74.8 percent in 2000, and

73.3 percent in 2004. The decline was 1.8 percentage points

between 1994 and 2004.

The labor force participation rate of women, which was

32.7 percent in 1948, increased by leaps and bounds to 53.6

percent in 1984 and 58.8 percent in 1994. In 1999, it peaked at

60 percent. Women’s participation rates then declined to 59.2

percent in 2004, still an increase of 0.4 percentage point over

the 1994–2004 period.

The overall labor force participation rate is formed from the

joint contributions of the separate participation rates of men

and women. Historically, the overall participation rate has

grown due to large increases in the labor force participation

of women, specifically during the 1970s and 1980s. The overall

participation rate has increased even though the labor force

participation rate of men has continually fallen. Among the

many factors that have contributed to the growth and development of the U.S. labor force, none has been as important

as the rise in the participation of women. From 1970 to 1980,

the labor force participation rate of women in the 25- to 34-

year age group increased by 20.5 percentage points. Similarly,

the 35- to 44-year age group increased its labor force

participation rate by 14.4 percentage points. The rapid growth

of women’s participation rates during the 1980s was unprecedented.17 In sum, the far larger increases in the labor

force participation rate of women more than compensated for

the decreasing participation rates of men during the same

timeframes.

Because the men’s participation rate has been decreasing,

and the women’s rate increasing, over the decades, the difference between the participation rates of men and women—the

gender gap— has been decreasing steadily. (See table 5.) Still,

although the women’s participation rate has been increasing

historically, it is now increasing at a decreasing rate. In the

years to come, there will be only marginal increases in the

participation rate of women, because there is little room for

participation rate increases among the different age groups of

women. Any future increases will not be large enough to compensate for the falling participation rate of men; thus, the

overall labor force participation rate is projected to decrease

further.

The labor force participation rate of men is projected to be

71.8 percent in 2014, 1.5 percentage points lower than its 2004

rate. The labor force participation rate of women that same

year is projected to be 59.7 percent, 0.5 percentage point more

than its rate in the previous decade.

Race and Hispanic origin. Differences in labor force participation by race and Hispanic origin are usually not as great as

those observed by age and sex. However, changes in labor

force participation rates over time differ among the various

groups. When changes in participation rates are combined

with different patterns of population growth, substantial

differences in the future labor force result.

Hispanic men have the highest overall labor force participation rate. Hispanic women, by contrast, have the lowest

participation in the workforce relative to other racial and ethnic

categories. For blacks, the situation is reversed: black men

have a lower participation rate than black women. The high

labor force participation rate of Hispanic men reflects, in part,

their age structure. Hispanics have a younger population

relative to other race and ethnic groups, with a greater proportion at the ages of higher labor force participation. Thus,

the overall labor force participation rate of each of the race

and ethnic categories is a result of the age distribution of the

population in each of those categories, as well as the labor

force participation rates of the different race and ethnic groups

within the various age categories.

In 2014, Hispanics once again will retain their first place in

the ranking of the labor force participation rates of the racial

groups. Asians are expected to achieve second place, followed by white non-Hispanics and blacks.

The projected labor force

The labor force experienced its strongest growth in the 1984–94

period, with a 1.4-percent annual growth rate (see table 6), mainly
38 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

[Numbers in thousands]

Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

Total, 16 years

and older.................. 113,544 131,056 147,401 162,100 17,512 16,345 14,699 15.4 12.5 10.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.4 1.2 1.0

 16 to 24 years ........ 23,989 21,612 22,268 22,158 –2,377 656 –110 –9.9 3.0 –.5 21.1 16.5 15.1 13.7 –1.0 .3 .0

 16 to 19 years ..... 7,943 7,481 7,114 6,243 –462 –367 –871 –5.8 –4.9 –12.2 7.0 5.7 4.8 3.9 –.6 –.5 –1.3

 20 to 24 years ..... 16,046 14,131 15,154 15,915 –1,915 1,023 761 –11.9 7.2 5.0 14.1 10.8 10.3 9.8 –1.3 .7 .5

 25 to 54 years ........ 74,661 93,898 102,122 105,627 19,237 8,224 3,505 25.8 8.8 3.4 65.8 71.6 69.3 65.2 2.3 .8 .3

 25 to 34 years ..... 32,723 34,353 32,207 36,755 1,630 –2,146 4,548 5.0 –6.2 14.1 28.8 26.2 21.8 22.7 .5 –.6 1.3

 35 to 44 years ..... 24,933 35,226 36,158 33,345 10,293 932 –2,813 41.3 2.6 –7.8 22.0 26.9 24.5 20.6 3.5 .3 –.8

 45 to 54 years ..... 17,006 24,318 33,758 35,527 7,312 9,440 1,769 43.0 38.8 5.2 15.0 18.6 22.9 21.9 3.6 3.3 .5

 55 years and older .. 14,894 15,546 23,011 34,315 652 7,465 11,304 4.4 48.0 49.1 13.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 .4 4.0 4.1

 55 to 64 years ..... 11,961 11,713 18,013 25,629 –248 6,300 7,616 –2.1 53.8 42.3 10.5 8.9 12.2 15.8 –.2 4.4 3.6

 65 years and

older .................. 2,933 3,834 4,998 8,687 901 1,164 3,689 30.7 30.4 73.8 2.6 2.9 3.4 5.4 2.7 2.7 5.7

 65 to 74 years .. 2,494 3,140 3,990 6,942 646 850 2,952 25.9 27.1 74.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 4.3 2.3 2.4 5.7

 75 years and

older .............. 498 694 1,007 1,745 196 313 738 39.4 45.1 73.3 .4 .5 .7 1.1 3.4 3.8 5.7

Men, 16 years and

older ........................ 63,835 70,817 78,980 86,194 6,982 8,163 7,214 10.9 11.5 9.1 56.2 54.0 53.6 53.2 1.0 1.1 .9

 16 to 24 years ........ 12,728 11,435 11,673 11,389 –1,293 238 –284 –10.2 2.1 –2.4 11.2 8.7 7.9 7.0 –1.1 .2 –.2

 16 to 19 years ..... 4,134 3,896 3,616 3,057 –238 –280 –559 –5.8 –7.2 –15.5 3.6 3.0 2.5 1.9 –.6 –.7 –1.7

 20 to 24 years ..... 8,594 7,540 8,057 8,332 –1,054 517 275 –12.3 6.9 3.4 7.6 5.8 5.5 5.1 –1.3 .7 .3

 25 to 54 years ........ 42,302 50,782 60,773 56,988 8,480 9,991 –3,785 20.0 19.7 –6.2 37.3 38.7 41.2 35.2 1.8 1.8 –.6

 25 to 34 years ..... 18,488 18,854 17,798 20,565 366 –1,056 2,767 2.0 –5.6 15.5 16.3 14.4 12.1 12.7 .2 –.6 1.5

 35 to 44 years ..... 14,037 18,966 19,539 18,068 4,929 573 –1,471 35.1 3.0 –7.5 12.4 14.5 13.3 11.1 3.1 .3 –.8

 45 to 54 years ..... 9,776 12,962 17,635 18,355 3,186 4,673 720 32.6 36.1 4.1 8.6 9.9 12.0 11.3 2.9 3.1 .4

 55 years and older .. 8,805 8,600 12,334 17,817 –205 3,734 5,483 –2.3 43.4 44.5 7.8 6.6 8.4 11.0 –.2 3.7 3.7

 55 to 64 years ..... 7,050 6,423 9,547 13,022 –627 3,124 3,475 –8.9 48.6 36.4 6.2 4.9 6.5 8.0 –.9 4.0 3.2

 65 years and

older .................. 1,755 2,177 2,787 4,795 422 610 2,008 24.0 28.0 72.0 1.5 1.7 1.9 3.0 2.2 2.5 5.6

 65 to 74 years .. 1,476 1,763 2,211 3,834 287 448 1,623 19.4 25.4 73.4 1.3 1.3 1.5 2.4 1.8 2.3 5.7

 75 years and

older .............. 279 414 576 961 135 162 385 48.4 39.1 66.8 .2 .3 .4 .6 4.0 3.4 5.3

Women, 16 years and

older ........................ 49,709 60,239 68,421 75,906 10,530 8,182 7,485 21.2 13.6 10.9 43.8 46.0 46.4 46.8 1.9 1.3 1.0

 16 to 24 years ........ 11,261 10,177 10,595 10,769 –1,084 418 174 –9.6 4.1 1.6 9.9 7.8 7.2 6.6 –1.0 .4 .2

 16 to 19 years ..... 3,810 3,585 3,498 3,186 –225 –87 –312 –5.9 –2.4 –8.9 3.4 2.7 2.4 2.0 –.6 –.2 –.9

 20 to 24 years ..... 7,451 6,592 7,097 7,583 –859 505 486 –11.5 7.7 6.8 6.6 5.0 4.8 4.7 –1.2 .7 .7

 25 to 54 years ........ 32,360 43,116 47,150 48,639 10,756 4,034 1,489 33.2 9.4 3.2 28.5 32.9 32.0 30.0 2.9 .9 .3

 25 to 34 years ..... 14,234 15,499 14,409 16,190 1,265 –1,090 1,781 8.9 –7.0 12.4 12.5 11.8 9.8 10.0 .9 –.7 1.2

 35 to 44 years ..... 10,896 16,259 16,619 15,277 5,363 360 –1,342 49.2 2.2 –8.1 9.6 12.4 11.3 9.4 4.1 .2 –.8

 45 to 54 years ..... 7,230 11,357 16,123 17,172 4,127 4,766 1,049 57.1 42.0 6.5 6.4 8.7 10.9 10.6 4.6 3.6 .6

 55 years and older .. 6,088 6,947 10,676 16,498 859 3,729 5,822 14.1 53.7 54.5 5.4 5.3 7.2 10.2 1.3 4.4 4.4

 55 to 64 years ..... 4,911 5,289 8,466 12,606 378 3,177 4,140 7.7 60.1 48.9 4.3 4.0 5.7 7.8 .7 4.8 4.1

 65 years and

older ................... 1,177 1,658 2,211 3,892 481 553 1,681 40.9 33.4 76.0 1.0 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.5 2.9 5.8

 65 to 74 years .. 1,018 1,377 1,780 3,108 359 403 1,328 35.3 29.3 74.6 .9 1.1 1.2 1.9 3.1 2.6 5.7

 75 years and

older ............... 159 281 431 784 122 150 353 76.7 53.4 81.9 .1 .2 .3 .5 5.9 4.4 6.2

White .......................... 98,492 111,082 121,086 129,936 12,590 10,004 8,850 12.8 9.0 7.3 86.7 84.8 82.1 80.2 1.2 .9 .7

Men ......................... 56,062 60,727 65,994 70,335 4,665 5,267 4,341 8.3 8.7 6.6 49.4 46.3 44.8 43.4 .8 .8 .6

Women .................... 42,431 50,356 55,092 59,601 7,925 4,736 4,509 18.7 9.4 8.2 37.4 38.4 37.4 36.8 1.7 .9 .8

Black .......................... 12,033 14,502 16,638 19,434 2,469 2,136 2,796 20.5 14.7 16.8 10.6 11.1 11.3 12.0 1.9 1.4 1.6

Men ......................... 6,126 7,089 7,773 9,075 963 684 1,302 15.7 9.6 16.8 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.6 1.5 .9 1.6

Women .................... 5,907 7,413 8,865 10,359 1,506 1,452 1,494 25.5 19.6 16.9 5.2 5.7 6.0 6.4 2.3 1.8 1.6

Asian1 ........................ 3,019 5,472 6,271 8,304 2,456 799 2,033 81.4 14.6 32.4 2.7 4.2 4.3 5.1 6.1 1.4 2.8

Men ......................... 1,647 3,002 3,396 4,411 1,355 394 1,015 82.3 13.1 29.9 1.5 2.3 2.3 2.7 6.2 1.2 2.6

Women .................... 1,369 2,472 2,876 3,893 1,103 404 1,017 80.6 16.3 35.4 1.2 1.9 2.0 2.4 6.1 1.5 3.1

All other groups2 ......... (3

) (3) 3,406 4,427 ... ... 1,021 ... ... 30.0 ... ... 2.3 2.7 ... ... 2.7

Men ......................... (3

) (3) 1,817 2,373 ... ... 556 ... ... 30.6 ... ... 1.2 1.5 ... ... 2.7

Women .................... (3

) (3) 1,589 2,054 ... ... 465 ... ... 29.3 ... ... 1.1 1.3 ... ... 2.6

1984 1994 2014 2004

Group

Table 6.

1994–

2004

2004–

14

Percent distribution

1984 2004 2014 1994

Percent change

1984–

94

1994–

2004

2004–

14

1984–

94

Level Change Annual growth

 rate (percent)

2004–

14

1994–

2004

1984–

94

See footnotes at end of table.
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 39

the result of a significant expansion of the overall participation

rate. However, the growth of the labor force has declined with

each consecutive decade, decreasing to 1.2 percent during the

1994–2004 timeframe. From 2004 to 2014, the various age, sex,

race, and ethnic groups will experience different rates of change

both in their populations and in their labor force participation

rates, leading to changes in the composition of the labor force.

The Bureau projects that, during the 2004–14 period, as a result

of the gradual decrease in the labor force participation rate, the

growth rate of the labor force will slow to 1.0 percent, the same as

the growth rate of the population.

Looking at the labor force by age. The youth labor force,

which consisted of nearly 24 million people in 1984, experienced

a considerable drop of 9.9 percentage points and decreased to

21.6 million in 1994. Then, between 1994 and 2004, the group

grew by 3.0 percentage points, increasing to 22.3 million. The

Bureau projects that, by 2014, the youth labor force will remain

about the same in numbers, settling out at 22.2 million that year.

The prime-aged labor force was 74.6 million in 1984 and 93.9

million in 1994, an increase of more than 19 million between those

years. In 2004, this age group reached 102.2 million, an increase

of more than 8 million. The Bureau projects that, by 2014, the

labor force of 25- to 54-year-olds will increase by a further 3.5

million, to 105.6 million.

The labor force of those aged 25 to 34 years dropped by 2.1

million from 1994 to 2004. This age group is in the baby-bust

cohort of the population and will further decrease the labor force

of the 35- to 44-year age group during the 2004–14 period. The

25- to 34-year age group is expected to increase by 4.5 million

from 2004 to 2014 and will reach nearly 37 million in the latter year.

During the 1984–94 period, the 35- to 44-year age group

increased by more than 10 million. Over the next 10 years, the 45-

to 54-year age group also increased its labor force population by

9.4 million.

The huge labor force tide in these categories is once again a

result of the baby-boom generation, which increases the size of

the labor force whichever age category it ends up in. During the

2004–14 timeframe, the 45- to 54-year age group, made up of the

younger baby boomers, is expected to increase at a slower rate

than it once did.

The annual growth rate of the 55-years-and-older group is

projected to be nearly 4 times that of the overall labor force. This

age group is anticipated to grow by 11.3 million during the 2004–

14 period, the fastest growth among all age groups. Within the

group, the 55- to 64-year-olds are expected to add 7.6 million to

the labor force, exhibiting an annual growth rate of 3.6 percent.

The 65- to 74-year-olds are expected to grow at an annual growth

rate of 5.7 percent and reach nearly 7 million in 2014.

Looking at the labor force by gender. The labor force growth

of women was much faster than that of men in both the 1984–94

and 1994–2004 period. The Bureau projects that, from 2004 to

2014, the labor force growth rate of women will still be slightly

higher than that of men. The sizable increase in the growth rate

of the women’s labor force over the past three decades has greatly

[Numbers in thousands]

Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

Hispanic origin .. 7,451 11,975 19,272 25,760 4,524 7,297 6,488 60.7 60.9 33.7 6.6 9.1 13.1 15.9 4.9 4.9 2.9

Men ............... 4,563 7,210 11,587 14,921 2,647 4,377 3,334 58.0 60.7 28.8 4.0 5.5 7.9 9.2 4.7 4.9 2.6

Women .......... 2,888 4,765 7,685 10,839 1,877 2,920 3,154 65.0 61.3 41.0 2.5 3.6 5.2 6.7 5.1 4.9 3.5

Other than

Hispanic

origin .............. 106,093 119,081 128,129 136,340 12,988 9,048 8,211 12.2 7.6 6.4 93.4 90.9 86.9 84.1 1.2 .7 .6

Men ............... 59,272 63,607 67,393 71,273 4,335 3,786 3,880 7.3 6.0 5.8 52.2 48.5 45.7 44.0 .7 .6 .6

Women .......... 46,821 55,474 60,736 65,067 8,653 5,262 4,331 18.5 9.5 7.1 41.2 42.3 41.2 40.1 1.7 .9 .7

White NonHispanic ......... 91,296 100,462 103,202 106,373 9,166 2,740 3,171 10.0 2.7 3.1 80.4 76.7 70.0 65.6 1.0 .3 .3

Men ............... 51,650 54,306 55,186 56,615 2,656 880 1,429 5.1 1.6 2.6 45.5 41.4 37.4 34.9 .5 .2 .3

Women .......... 39,646 46,157 48,017 49,758 6,511 1,860 1,741 16.4 4.0 3.6 34.9 35.2 32.6 30.7 1.5 .4 .4

1984 1994 2014 2004

Group

Table 6.

1994–

2004

2004–

14

Percent distribution

1984 1994 2004 2014

Percent change

1984–

94

1994–

2004

2004–

14

1984–

94

Level Change Annual growth

 rate (percent)

2004–

14

1994–

2004

1984–

94

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian

only” as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the

2000 census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race category

with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the “Asian only” race

category with 2000 census weights.

2

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) thosed classed as of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 3

 Data for “All other groups” are not available for 1984 or 1994.
40 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

increased the share of women in the labor force and has contributed to the narrowing of the gender gap in labor force

participation.

The Bureau projects that the men’s labor force will grow by 0.9

percent annually from 2004 to 2014 and reach more than 86 million

in the latter year. The women’s labor force is expected to have

1.0-percent annual growth over the 2004–14 period and reach

nearly 76 million in 2014. This small difference between the

projected labor force growth rates of men and women will result

in the women’s share of the labor force increasing slightly from

46.4 percent to 46.8 percent, while the men’s share will decrease

from 53.6 percent to 53.2 percent.

Looking at the labor force by race and ethnicity. During the

2004–14 period, the U.S. labor force will become yet more diverse.

With immigration being the main driver of population growth,

and with the high labor force participation rates of the Hispanic

and Asian groups, the share of minorities in the workforce will

expand more than ever before.

The Hispanic labor force is projected to grow by 2.9 percent

annually over the 2004–14 period and reach 25.8 million.

Hispanics will constitute nearly 16.0 percent of the labor force

in 2014. The Asian labor force is expected to grow at a comparable 2.8 percent, reaching more than 8.0 million in 2014.

The black labor force is projected to have an annual growth

rate of 1.6 percent from 2004 to 2014 and reach 19.4 million in

the latter year.

Implications of labor force dynamics

The labor force is expected to grow by nearly 15 million persons

during the 2004–14 timeframe. This increase masks the more

dynamic underlying process of the movement of workers into

and out of the labor force. The dynamics of labor force change

from 2004 through 2014 emerge from three distinct groups:

entrants—those who will be in the labor force in 2014, but who

were not in it in 2004; leavers—those who will exit the labor force

after 2004 and before 2014; and stayers—those who were in the

labor force in 2004 and who will remain through 2014.18 To the

extent that the demographic composition of labor force entrants

and leavers between 2004 and 2014 will be different from the

composition of those now in the labor force, the 2014 labor force

will be different from today’s labor force. Thus, the labor force of

2014 may be regarded as consisting of the labor force of 2004,

plus the entrants, minus the leavers.

The Bureau projects that, between 2004 and 2014, 39 million

workers will enter the labor force and more than 24 million will

leave. These figures compare with nearly 33 million entrants

and more than 19 million leavers over the 1994–2004 period.

(See table 7.) During 1994–2004 and also 2004–14, entrants

were more likely to be men. Leavers also were more likely to be

men, because the men’s labor force was, and still is, older than

the women’s.

According to BLS projections, by 2014, 20.8 million men will

have joined the 2004 men’s labor force of nearly 79 million,

and 13.6 million men will have left the labor force, resulting in

a labor force of 86 million men in 2014. Similarly, more than 18

million women are expected to enter the labor force over the

2004–14 period, while 10.7 million women are projected to

leave.

The largest share of the 2004 labor force—82.1 percent—

was made up of whites. The Bureau projects that nearly 75

percent of the population entering the labor force between

2004 and 2014 will be white, a share smaller than the group's

81.6-percent share of entrants over the 1994–2004 period.

These proportions are also smaller than whites’ share of the

workforce, reflecting the group’s lower labor force growth. As

a result of the nearly 29 million whites entering the labor force

and the 20 million leaving over the 2004–14 period, the share

of whites in the labor force is projected to be 80.2 percent in

2014, a drop of 4.6 percentage points from 1994. In the 1994–

2004 period, white men supplied the most entrants, 46 percent.

However, they also supplied most of those leaving, nearly 49

percent.

The slower growth of the white labor force reflects the group’s

lower birthrates and lower rates of migration to the United States,

as well as—and, indeed, especially—the constant decrease in

the labor force participation rate of white men compared with

other population groups. This combination results in relatively

fewer labor force entrants and relatively more labor force

leavers—a reflection of the aging of the white male labor force.

Blacks made up 11.3 percent of the labor force, or a total of 16.6

million, in 2004. Blacks are expected to add 5.7 million entrants to

the labor force between 2004 and 2014. Even with the nearly 3

million blacks projected to leave the labor force during the 2004–

14 period, the group will increase it’s numbers and is expected to

have a 12.0-percent share of the labor force in 2014.

In 2004, Hispanics represented 13 percent of the labor force,

with more than 19 million workers. Because of their higher levels

of migration, more than 8 million Hispanics are projected to enter

the labor force during the 2004–14 period. Reflecting their

relatively young age composition, only 1.9 million Hispanics are

expected to leave the labor force, so the number of Hispanics in

the labor force is projected to grow by more than 6.5 million. By

2014, the Hispanic labor force is anticipated to reach 25.8 million,

6.3 million more than the black labor force.

The Hispanic share of the labor force is expected to grow, a

result of the group’s overall population growth, which will come

about through large numbers of immigrants and higher birthrates

in the young Hispanic population. Also, the very high labor

force participation rate of Hispanic men is a major contributor to

their high labor force growth.
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 41

Civilian labor force, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014; and entrants and leavers, 1994–2004 and projected 2004–14

Number, 16 years and older

Total .............................................. 131,056 32,638 19,699 111,357 147,401 39,048 24,352 123,049 162,100

Men ............................................ 70,817 17,633 11,287 59,531 78,980 20,829 13,617 65,363 86,194

Women ....................................... 60,239 15,005 8,412 51,826 68,421 18,219 10,735 57,686 75,906

White ............................................. 111,082 26,634 16,629 94,453 121,086 29,190 20,343 100,743 129,936

Men ............................................ 60,727 14,869 9,601 51,126 65,994 16,073 11,734 54,260 70,335

Women ....................................... 50,355 11,765 7,028 43,327 55,092 13,117 8,609 45,483 59,601

Black ............................................. 14,502 4,379 2,243 12,259 16,638 5,795 2,999 13,639 19,433

Men ............................................ 7,089 1,902 1,218 5,871 7,773 2,683 1,381 6,392 9,075

Women ....................................... 7,413 2,477 1,025 6,388 8,865 3,112 1,618 7,247 10,358

Asian1 ........................................... 5,472 1,625 827 4,645 6,271 2,697 665 5,606 8,304

Men ............................................ 3,002 862 468 2,534 3,396 1,353 338 3,058 4,411

Women ....................................... 2,470 763 359 2,111 2,875 1,344 327 2,548 3,893

All other groups2 ........................... (3

) ... ... ... 3,406 1,366 345 3,061 4,427

Men ............................................ (3) ... ... ... 1,817 720 164 1,653 2,373

Women ....................................... (3

) ... ... ... 1,589 646 181 1,408 2,054

Hispanic origin .............................. 11,975 8,283 986 10,989 19,272 8,378 1,892 17,380 25,760

Men ............................................ 7,210 4,952 575 6,635 11,587 4,501 1,169 10,418 14,921

Women ....................................... 4,765 3,331 411 4,354 7,685 3,877 723 6,962 10,839

Other than Hispanic ..................... 119,081 24,355 18,713 100,368 128,129 30,670 22,460 105,669 136,340

Men ............................................ 63,607 12,681 10,712 52,896 67,393 16,328 12,448 54,945 71,273

Women ....................................... 55,474 11,674 8,001 47,472 60,736 14,342 10,012 50,724 65,067

 Share (percent), 16 years

 and older

Total .............................................. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Men ............................................ 54.0 54.0 57.3 53.5 53.6 53.3 55.9 53.1 53.2

Women ....................................... 46.0 46.0 42.7 46.5 46.4 46.7 44.1 46.9 46.8

White ............................................. 84.8 81.6 84.4 84.8 82.1 74.8 83.5 81.9 80.2

Men ............................................ 46.3 45.6 48.7 45.9 44.8 41.2 48.2 44.1 43.4

Women ....................................... 38.4 36.0 35.7 38.9 37.4 33.6 35.4 37.8 36.8

Black ............................................. 11.1 13.4 11.4 11.0 11.3 14.8 12.3 11.1 12.0

Men ............................................ 5.4 5.8 6.2 5.3 5.3 6.9 5.7 5.2 5.6

Women ....................................... 5.7 7.6 5.2 5.7 6.0 8.0 6.6 5.9 6.4

Asian1 ........................................... 4.2 5.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 6.9 2.7 4.6 5.1

Men ............................................ 2.3 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.3 3.5 1.4 2.5 2.7

Women ....................................... 1.9 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.0 3.4 1.3 2.1 2.4

All other groups2 ........................... (3

) ... ... ... 2.3 3.5 1.4 2.5 2.7

Men ............................................ (3

) ... ... ... 1.2 1.8 .7 1.3 1.5

Women ....................................... (3) ... ... ... 1.1 1.7 .7 1.1 1.2

Hispanic origin .............................. 9.1 25.4 5.0 9.9 13.1 21.5 7.8 14.1 15.9

Men ............................................ 5.5 15.2 2.9 6.0 7.9 11.5 4.8 8.5 9.2

Women ....................................... 3.6 10.2 2.1 3.9 5.2 9.9 3.0 5.7 6.7

Other than Hispanic ..................... 90.9 74.6 95.0 90.1 86.9 78.5 92.2 85.9 84.1

Men ............................................ 48.5 38.9 54.4 47.5 45.7 41.8 51.1 44.7 44.0

Women ....................................... 42.3 35.8 40.6 42.6 41.2 36.7 41.1 41.2 40.1

Entrants

1994

Leavers Stayers

Group

Table 7.

2004

1994–2004 2004–14

Entrants Leavers Stayers 2014

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian

only” as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the

2000 census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race

category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the “Asian

only” race category with 2000 census weights.

[Number in thousands]

2

 The “All other groups” category includes (1) those classed as of

multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and

Alaska Native or (2b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. 3 Data for “All other groups” are not available for 1984 or 1994.
42 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

In 2004, the Asian labor force totaled 6 million. About 2.7 million

members of this group are expected to enter the labor force over

the 2004–14 period. During the same timeframe, the number of

leavers in the group will be small, so the Asian labor force is

expected to number more than 8 million by 2014.

Implications of an aging labor force

Median age. Populations age when their life expectancies

increase or their fertility rates decrease over time, as has been

happening in the United States. The median age is one of the

ways by which the age of the population or that of the labor force

can be measured. The median age of the labor force peaked at

40.6 years in 1962. As the baby-boom generation entered the

labor force, the median age of the labor force decreased steadily

until 1980. Since then, as the baby boomers have aged, so has

the labor force. However, the combined effects of increasing

longevity and decreasing fertility over time are changing the age

structure of the population and labor force toward higher age

groups. Even after all the baby boomers have exited the labor

force, the increase in life expectancy and decrease in fertility

rates will result in an aging of both the population and the labor

force. This in turn will raise the median age of the labor force,

causing it to reach unprecedented levels by 2014. (See table 8.)

The growth of the older population, combined with the

increase in the group’s participation rate, will result in a projected

increase of 1.3 years in the median age of the total labor force in

2014. Historically, the white labor force—especially the white

non-Hispanic participants—have been older than the rest of the

labor force. This disparity is projected to continue into 2014.

Compared with the white labor force, the black and, especially,

the Hispanic segments of the labor force are younger and have

higher fertility rates. As a result, young black and Hispanic

workers—those between 16 and 24 years—are expected to

increase their shares of the labor force. Historically, black

participants in the labor force have been about 1.5 to 3.0 years

younger than the overall labor force, a gap that is projected to

continue through 2014.

Hispanic participants generally have been younger due to

their higher levels of migration at younger ages. Hispanics are

projected to continue having a lower median age than that of

the overall labor force, but to age from a median of 35.0 years

in 2004 to 37.4 years in 2014, reflecting the aging of earlier

immigrants. Overall, the median ages of all racial and Hispanic

groups are expected to increase during the 2004–14 period. In

2004, the median age of Asian labor force participants was 1.0

year less than that of the overall labor force; the difference is

expected to decrease to 0.4 year by 2014.

Age composition. Another way to measure the age of the

labor force is by examining its age composition and structure.

The labor force is getting older if the proportion of the 55-

years-and-older age groups is increasing or if the share of

those under 25 years is decreasing. Table 9 presents such

information for the population and labor force aged 16 years

and older, by sex and age groups. From 1994 to 2004, the

proportion of those 55 years and older, both in the population

and in the labor force, increased. The group's proportion in

the labor force is expected to rise to 21.2 percent by 2014.

Also, during 1984–2004, the proportion of those 45 years and

older increased both in the population and in the labor force.

The increase in the share of those 45 years and older in the

labor force and in the population is projected to continue in

the future. The proportion of persons 16 to 24 years old in the

labor force decreased over the 1984–2004 period and is

expected to decline further by 2014. On the basis of both

median age and age composition, the population and the labor

force are getting older.

Median age of the labor force by sex, race, and ethnic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

Total ............................................................ 35.0 37.7 40.3 41.6

Men .......................................................... 35.5 37.7 40.1 41.2

Women ..................................................... 34.6 37.7 40.5 42.2

White........................................................ 35.3 38.0 40.8 42.3

Black ........................................................ 32.9 36.0 38.6 38.6

Asian1 ...................................................... 34.9 36.6 39.3 41.2

Hispanic origin ......................................... 30.7 33.2 35.0 37.4

White non-Hispanic ................................. 35.6 38.5 41.8 43.8

Group 1984 1994 2004 2014

Table 8.

1 There was a disruption in the series for “Asian and other” and “Asian

only” as a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in the

2000 census. Data for 1984–94 represent the “Asian and other” race category

with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004–14 represent the “Asian only” race

category with 2000 census weights.
Monthly Labor Review November 2005 43

Economic dependency. The economic dependency ratio is the

number of persons in the total population (including the Armed

Forces and children) who are not in the labor force, per 100 of

those who are in the labor force. Table 10 shows the economic

dependency ratio by age for selected years from 1975 to 2004

and projected for 2014.

For every 100 persons in the 2004 labor force, about 98 were

not in the labor force. Of those 98, 44 were children, 33 were 16 to

64 years of age, and 21 were 65 years and older. In 1984, for the

first time ever, more Americans were in the labor force than were

not. This trend is expected to continue throughout the entire

projection period, with the estimated number of persons not

working falling to 96 per 100 workers in 2014.

Over the last three decades, as the number of births diminished and the baby boomers moved to ages older than 16, the

economic dependency ratio decreased. Most of the 28-

percentage-point decrease for the total population between

1975 and 2004 stemmed from the decline in the number of

births. The portion of the ratio attributed to children is

projected to continue its downward slide. The 16- to 64-yearold age group also experienced a decrease, of 11 points,

from 44 per hundred in the labor force in 1975 to 33 per

hundred in 2004. The economic dependency ratio for this

group is projected to continue decreasing and reach 31 in

2014.

The part of the dependency ratio that had been steadily

increasing is the portion attributable to those 65 years and

older. In 1975, this age group constituted the smallest part of

the dependency ratio. During the 1975–94 period, the dependency ratio of the group grew by 2 percentage points. In

2004, it fell to 21 per 100, representing the entry of the birthdearth cohort of the 1930s into the 65-and-older group. The

dependency of the 65-years-and-older group, which is projected to be the smallest group in 2014, is expected to rise

slightly to 22 that year.

OVER THE 2004–14 PERIOD, changes in the growth and

composition of the population, in addition to the different

growth patterns in the labor force participation rate among

the various age, sex, race, and ethnic groups, will result in

alterations in the composition and growth rate of the various

segments of the labor force. The annual growth rate of the

labor force will slow to 1.0 percent. The U.S. labor force in

2014 is projected to be 162.1 million, an increase of nearly 15.0

million over the 2004 level.

In 2014, the labor force is projected to be older and to become

more diverse. During the past several decades, a combination of

decreasing fertility rates and increasing life expectancies has aged

the U.S population and labor force. The median age of the labor

force is expected to rise over the projection period.

Distribution of the population and labor force by age and sex, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

Total, 16 years and older ........................ 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 years ...................................... 21.1 16.5 15.1 13.7 20.1 16.5 16.3 15.2

25 to 34 years ...................................... 28.8 26.2 21.8 22.7 22.7 21.0 17.4 17.4

35 to 44 years ...................................... 22.0 26.9 24.5 20.6 17.2 21.1 19.4 16.2

45 years and older ............................... 28.1 30.4 38.5 43.1 40.1 41.4 46.9 51.2

55 years and older ............................ 13.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 27.5 26.2 28.4 33.7

 65 years and older ........................ 2.6 2.9 3.4 5.4 15.0 15.8 15.5 17.8

 75 years and older ..................... .4 .5 .7 1.1 5.8 6.5 7.4 7.4

Men, 16 years and older ......................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 years ...................................... 19.9 16.1 14.8 13.2 20.9 17.3 17.0 15.7

25 to 34 years ...................................... 29.0 26.6 22.5 23.9 23.4 21.6 18.0 18.0

35 to 44 years ...................................... 22.0 26.8 24.7 21.0 17.6 21.7 19.7 16.6

45 years and older ............................... 29.1 30.4 37.9 42.0 38.0 39.5 45.2 49.7

55 years and older ............................ 13.8 12.1 15.6 20.7 25.2 24.1 26.5 32.0

 65 years and older ........................ 2.7 3.1 3.5 5.6 12.9 13.7 13.6 16.3

 75 years and older ..................... .4 .6 .7 1.1 4.4 5.1 5.9 6.1

Women, 16 years and older .................... 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

16 to 24 years ...................................... 22.7 16.9 15.5 14.2 19.3 15.9 15.6 14.6

25 to 34 years ...................................... 28.6 25.7 21.1 21.3 22.0 20.4 16.9 16.9

35 to 44 years ...................................... 21.9 27.0 24.3 20.1 16.7 20.6 19.0 15.9

45 years and older ............................... 26.8 30.4 39.2 44.4 41.9 43.1 48.5 52.6

55 years and older ............................ 12.2 11.5 15.6 21.7 29.5 28.2 30.2 35.3

 65 years and older ........................ 2.4 2.8 3.2 5.1 16.9 17.7 17.2 19.3

 75 years and older ..................... .3 .5 .6 1.0 6.9 7.8 8.7 8.6

1984 1994 2004 2014

Group

Table 9.

1984 1994 2004

Labor force Population

2014
44 Monthly Labor Review November 2005

Labor Force

Hispanics and Asians are projected to continue their high

growth rates in the labor force. Hispanics will continue to be the

largest minority group in the labor force. The participation rate of

Hispanics will continue to increase.

A combination of structural, cyclical, and demographic/compositional factors will affect the detailed labor force participation

rates of the various age, sex, race, and ethnic groups, resulting in

changes in the future overall labor force participation rate.

In its past labor force projections, the Bureau has stated,

“The participation rates of women are projected to increase

Economic dependency ratio by age, 1975–2004 and projected 2014

Total population .......................................... 126.3 98.3 99.2 98.3 96.3

Under 16 years ....................................... 61.4 45.8 47.7 44.1 42.1

16 to 64 years ......................................... 44.2 30.5 28.8 33.0 31.5

65 years and older .................................. 20.7 22.1 22.7 21.2 22.6

Group 1975 1984 1994 2004

Table 10.

2014

[Per hundred in the labor force]

and those of men are expected to decrease. The net effect was

projected to be an increase in the overall participation rate

during the projection period.”19 Although this trend may still

hold to a certain extent in the future, the rate of change in the

women’s participation rate appears to have peaked, and any

future increases in the women’s labor force participation rate

are expected to be small relative to the rapid changes of the

last 50 years. In addition, the aging of the baby boomers over the

next decade will decrease the overall labor force participation

rate and, ultimately, slow the growth of the labor force.

Notes

1

 The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployed

persons in the civilian noninstitutional population.

2 The civilian labor force participation rate is defined as the

proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population that is in the

labor force.

3

 See Michael W. Horrigan, “Employment projections to 2012:

concept and context,” Monthly Labor Review, February 2004, pp. 3–22.

4

 All of the information on the Census Bureau’s interim projections

is from the Census Projections home page, under the label of “Interim

Projections consistent with Census 2000”; on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/population/www/projections/popproj.html.

5

 Census Bureau information; on the Internet at http://

www.census.gov/ipc/www/usinterimproj/idbsummeth.html.

6

 John Long, The Relative Effects of Fertility, Mortality and

Immigration on Projected Population Age Structure (Bureau of the

Census, 1989).

7

 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “New labor force projections, spanning

1988 to 2000,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1989, pp. 3–12.

8

 According to the Census Bureau, the fertility assumptions for this

round of interim projections are a weighted average combining 0.921

of the middle-fertility series with 0.079 of the low-fertility series

developed for the original projections. In 1999, the total fertility rate

was 2,048 births per 1,000 women. Census Bureau projections indicate

that, during the next 10 years, the total fertility rate will range from

2,083.2 in 2005 to 2,134.8 in 2015.

9

 For the current round of population projections, according to the

Census Bureau’s assumptions, average life expectancy at birth will

increase from 77.82 in 2005 to 79.21 in 2015.

10 On the basis of the Census Bureau’s interim projections, annual

migration from these source countries to the United States is projected

to be at the 926.4 thousand level in 2005, decrease to around 779.2

thousand in 2011, and then again continue its increasing trend to

801.6 thousand in 2015.

11 Abraham T. Mosisa, “The role of foreign-born workers in the

U.S. economy,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 3–14.

12 Participation in the World of Work, Bulletin KILM 1-ILO (Geneva,

International Labor Organization, no date); on the Internet at http:

//www.ilo.org/public/english/employment/gems/eeo/download/

kilm01.pdf.

13 Steven Hipple, “Labor force during recent labor market

downturns,” Issues in Labor Statistics, Summary 03–03 (Bureau of

Labor Statistics, September 2003).

14 Katie Kirkland, “Declining teen labor force participation,” Issues

in Labor Statistics, Summary 02–06 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,

September 2002).

15 Betty Su, “The U.S. economy to 2012: signs of growth,” Monthly

Labor Review, February 2004, pp. 23–36.

16 Hipple, “Labor force during recent labor market downturns.”

17 Mitra Toossi, “A century of change: the U.S labor force, 1950–

2050,” Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 15–28.

18 Entrants and leavers are computed by comparing the labor force

numbers for birth cohorts at two points in time. If the number at the

second point is larger, the difference is termed the “entrants.” If the

number at the second point is smaller, the difference is the “leavers.”

These concepts understate the numbers likely to enter and leave the

labor force over the period covered by the two points in time, but are

still a valid comparison. For a further discussion of the method

involved, see Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Measuring Rates of Labor

Force Dynamics,” Proceedings of the Social Statistics Section

(Alexandria, VA, American Statistical Association, 1993).

19 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 2005 labor force: growing, but

slowly,” Monthly Labor Review, November 1995, pp. 29–44.