For release 10:00 a.m. (EST) Tuesday, December 8, 2015 USDL-15-2327 

Technical information: (202) 691-5700 • ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp 

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov 

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2014-24 

Healthcare occupations and industries are expected to have the fastest employment growth and to add 

the most jobs between 2014 and 2024, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. With the 

increase in the proportion of the population in older age groups, more people in the labor force will be 

entering prime retirement age. As a result, the labor force participation rate is projected to decrease and 

labor force growth to slow. This slowdown of labor force growth is expected, in turn, to lead to Gross 

Domestic Product (GDP) growth of 2.2 percent annually over the decade. This economic growth is 

projected to generate 9.8 million new jobs—a 6.5-percent increase between 2014 and 2024. 

The projections are predicated on assumptions including a 5.2 percent unemployment rate in 2024 and 

labor productivity growth of 1.8 percent annually over the projected period. Highlights of the BLS 

projections for the labor force and macroeconomy, industry employment, and occupational employment 

are included below. 

Labor Force and the Macroeconomy 

 The civilian labor force is projected to reach 163.8 million in 2024, growing at an annual rate of 

0.5 percent. (See table 1.) 

 The labor force continues to age. The median age of the labor force was 37.7 in 1994, 40.3 in 

2004, 41.9 in 2014, and is projected to be 42.4 in 2024. At the same time, the overall labor force 

participation rate is projected to decrease from 62.9 percent in 2014 to 60.9 percent in 2024. 

 The labor force participation rate for youth (ages 16 to 24) is projected to decrease from 55.0 

percent in 2014 to 49.7 percent in 2024. The youth age group is projected to make up 11.3 

percent of the civilian labor force in 2024 as compared with 13.7 percent in 2014. In contrast, 

the labor force participation rate for the 65-and-older age group is projected to increase from 

18.6 percent in 2014 to 21.7 percent in 2024. This older age group is projected to represent 

8.2 percent of the civilian labor force in 2024 as compared with 5.4 percent in 2014. 

 Labor force diversity is projected to increase, with white non-Hispanics making up 59.6 percent 

of the civilian labor force in 2024, compared with 64.6 percent in 2014. 

 Real GDP (2009 chained dollars) is projected to grow at an annual rate of 2.2 percent, from 

$16.1 trillion in 2014 to $19.9 trillion in 2024. 
- 2 - 

• Within GDP, medical services will continue to grow as a share of nominal personal consumption 

expenditures. This category is projected to account for 18.0 percent of consumption in 2024—

higher than its 16.7-percent share in 2014 and 15.0-percent share in 2004. 

Industry Employment

• Service-providing sectors are projected to capture 94.6 percent of all the jobs added between 

2014 and 2024. Of these 9.3 million new service sector jobs, 3.8 million will be added to the 

healthcare and social assistance major sector.

• The healthcare and social assistance major sector is expected to become the largest employing 

major sector during the projections decade, overtaking the state and local government major 
- 3 - 

sector and the professional and business services major sector. Healthcare and social assistance is 

projected to increase its employment share from 12.0 percent in 2014 to 13.6 percent in 2024. 

• Construction is projected to add 790,400 jobs by 2024. Even with these additional jobs, 

employment in the construction major sector is not projected to return to the 2006 peak. 

• Manufacturing employment, between 2014 and 2024, is projected to decline at a 0.7 percent rate 

annually, a more moderate decline than the 1.6 percent rate experienced in the prior decade.

Occupational Employment

• Healthcare support occupations and healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are 

projected to be the two fastest growing occupational groups during the 2014 to 2024 projections 

decade. These groups are projected to contribute the most new jobs, with a combined increase of

2.3 million in employment, representing about 1 in 4 new jobs. 

• Of the 819 detailed occupations, employment in 602 occupations is projected to grow, while 

employment in 217 occupations is projected to decline. 

• Two major groups are projected to have declining employment. Together, production 

occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to shed 339,300 jobs 

during the projections decade. 

• For 11 of the 15 fastest growing occupations, some level of postsecondary education is typically 

required for entry. (See table 5.) 
Technical Note

The BLS projections are focused on long-term 

structural trends of the economy and do not try to anticipate 

future business cycle activity. To meet this objective, 

specific assumptions are made about the labor force, 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and occupational 

employment. Critical to the production of these projections 

is the assumption of full employment for the economy in 

the projected year. Thus, the projections are not intended 

to be a forecast of what the future will be, but instead are a 

description of what would be expected to happen under 

these specific assumptions and circumstances. When these 

assumptions are not realized, actual values will differ from 

projections. 

 Users of these data should not assume that the 

difference between projected changes in the labor force and 

in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The 

BLS projections assume labor market equilibrium, that is, 

one in which labor supply meets labor demand except for 

some level of frictional unemployment. In addition, the 

employment and labor force measures use different 

definitional and statistical concepts. For example, 

employment is a count of jobs, and one person may hold 

more than one job. Labor force is a count of people, and a 

person is counted only once regardless of how many jobs 

he or she holds. 

More Information 

The BLS projections are used by high school and 

college students, their teachers and parents, job seekers, 

career counselors, and guidance specialists to determine 

jobs in demand. The projections are the foundation of the 

BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook, one of the nation’s 

most widely used career information resources. The 

projections also are used by state workforce agencies to 

prepare state and area projections that, together with the 

national projections, are widely used by policymakers to 

make decisions about education and training, funding 

allocations, and program offerings. Projections of jobs in 

demand help improve the alignment between education 

and training and the hiring demands of business. In 

addition, other federal agencies, researchers, and 

academics use the projections to understand trends in the 

economy and labor market. The projections are updated 

every 2 years. 

More detailed information on the 2014–24 

projections appears in five articles in the Monthly Labor 

Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. 

Department of Labor. The Monthly Labor Review is 

available online at www.bls.gov/mlr. 

The 2016–17 edition of the Occupational Outlook 

Handbook will feature the 2014–24 projections in 

assessing job outlook, work activities, wages, education 

and training requirements, and more in 329 occupational 

profiles. The updated Handbook will be available online on 

December 17, 2015, at www.bls.gov/ooh. A graphic 

representation of projections highlights appears in a series 

of articles in Career Outlook, available online at 

www.bls.gov/careeroutlook. 

Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in 

preparing the projections are available online at 

http://www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm and projections 

methodology are accessible at 

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm. 

Information from this release will be made available 

to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 

(202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339. 
Table 1. Civilian labor force, by age, gender, race, and ethnicity, 1994, 2004, 2014, and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

Group

1994- 1994- 

1994 2004 2014 2024 2004 2004-14 2014-24 2004 2004-14 2014-24 1994 2004 2014 20

Total, 16 years and older 131,056 147,401 155,922 163,770 16,345 8,521 7,848 12.5 5.8 5.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 10Age, years:  16 to 24 21,612 22,268 21,295 18,498 656 -973 -2,797 3.0 -4.4 -13.1 16.5 15.1 13.7 1 25 to 54 93,898 102,122 100,767 104,697 8,224 -1,355 3,930 8.8 -1.3 3.9 71.6 69.3 64.6 6 55 and older 15,547 23,011 33,860 40,575 7,464 10,849 6,715 48.0 47.1 19.8 11.9 15.6 21.7 2Gender:  Men 70,817 78,980 82,882 86,524 8,163 3,902 3,642 11.5 4.9 4.4 54.0 53.6 53.2 5 Women 60,239 68,421 73,039 77,246 8,182 4,618 4,207 13.6 6.7 5.8 46.0 46.4 46.8 4Race:  White 111,082 121,086 123,327 126,143 10,004 2,241 2,816 9.0 1.9 2.3 84.8 82.1 79.1 7 Black 14,502 16,638 18,873 20,772 2,136 2,235 1,899 14.7 13.4 10.1 11.1 11.3 12.1 1 Asian 5,473 6,271 8,760 10,792 798 2,489 2,032 14.6 39.7 23.2 4.2 4.3 5.6  All other groups1 _ 3,406 4,961 6,063 _ 1,555 1,102 _ 45.7 22.2 _ 2.3 3.2 

Ethnicity:  Hispanic origin 11,975 19,272 25,370 32,486 7,297 6,098 7,116 60.9 31.6 28.0 9.1 13.1 16.3 1 Other than Hispanic  origin 119,081 128,129 130,552 131,284 9,048 2,423 732 7.6 1.9 0.6 90.9 86.9 83.7 8 White non-Hispanic 100,462 103,202 100,661 97,622 2,740 -2,541 -3,039 2.7 -2.5 -3.0 76.7 70.0 64.6 5

Age of baby boomers 30 to 48 40 to 58 50 to 68 60 to 78

 1 The "all other groups" category includes (1) those classified as being of multiple racial origin and (2) the racial categories of American InAlaska Native; and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders. Note: Dash indicates no data collected for category. Details may not sum to totals because of rounding. Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Level Change Percent change Percent distribution 
Table 2. Employment by major industry sector

(Numbers in thousands)

 Industry sector 

2004 2014 2024 2004-14 2014-24 2004 2014 2024 2004-14 2014-24

Total1 144,047.0 150,539.9 160,328.8 6,492.9 9,788.9 100.0 100.0 100.0 0.4 0.6 

Nonagriculture wage and salary2 132,462.2 139,811.5 149,131.6 7,349.3 9,320.1 92.0 92.9 93.0 0.5 0.6

Goods-producing, excluding agriculture 21,815.3 19,170.5 19,227.0 -2,644.8 56.5 15.1 12.7 12.0 -1.3 0.0

 Mining 523.2 843.8 924.0 320.6 80.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 4.9 0.9

 Construction 6,976.2 6,138.4 6,928.8 -837.8 790.4 4.8 4.1 4.3 -1.3 1.2

 Manufacturing 14,315.9 12,188.3 11,374.2 -2,127.6 -814.1 9.9 8.1 7.1 -1.6 -0.7

 

Services-providing 110,646.9 120,641.0 129,904.6 9,994.1 9,263.6 76.8 80.1 81.0 0.9 0.7

 Utilities 563.8 553.0 505.1 -10.8 -47.9 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 -0.9

 Wholesale trade 5,663.0 5,826.0 6,151.4 163.0 325.4 3.9 3.9 3.8 0.3 0.5

 Retail trade 15,058.2 15,364.5 16,129.1 306.3 764.6 10.5 10.2 10.1 0.2 0.5

 Transportation and warehousing 4,248.6 4,640.3 4,776.9 391.7 136.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 0.9 0.3

 Information 3,118.3 2,739.7 2,712.6 -378.6 -27.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 -1.3 -0.1

 Financial activities 8,105.1 7,979.5 8,486.7 -125.6 507.2 5.6 5.3 5.3 -0.2 0.6

 Professional and business services 16,394.9 19,096.2 20,985.5 2,701.3 1,889.3 11.4 12.7 13.1 1.5 0.9

 Educational services; private 2,762.5 3,417.4 3,756.1 654.9 338.7 1.9 2.3 2.3 2.2 0.9

 Health care and social assistance 14,429.8 18,057.4 21,852.2 3,627.6 3,794.8 10.0 12.0 13.6 2.3 1.9

 Leisure and hospitality 12,493.1 14,710.0 15,651.2 2,216.9 941.2 8.7 9.8 9.8 1.6 0.6

 Other services 6,188.3 6,394.0 6,662.0 205.7 268.0 4.3 4.2 4.2 0.3 0.4

 Federal government 2,730.0 2,729.0 2,345.6 -1.0 -383.4 1.9 1.8 1.5 0.0 -1.5

 State and local government 18,891.3 19,134.0 19,890.1 242.7 756.1 13.1 12.7 12.4 0.1 0.4

 

Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting3 2,111.3 2,138.3 2,027.7 26.9 -110.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 0.1 -0.5

 Agricultural wage and salary 1,149.0 1,384.0 1,307.3 235.0 -76.7 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.9 -0.6

 Agricultural self-employed workers 962.3 754.3 720.4 -208.1 -33.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 -2.4 -0.5

 

Nonagricultural self-employed workers 9,473.6 8,590.2 9,169.5 -883.4 579.3 6.6 5.7 5.7 -1.0 0.7

 1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas

self-employed, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

 2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current

Population Survey. Logging workers are excluded.

 3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current

Employment Statistics survey. Government wage and salary workers are excluded.

 Change Percent distribution

 Compound 

annual rate of 

change

 Employment 
Table 3. Industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth and declines

(Numbers in thousands)

 Compound annual

 Industry Major sector rate of change

2014 2024 2014-24 2014-24

Construction Construction 6,138.4 6,928.8 790.4 1.2

Home health care services Health care and social assistance 1,262.2 2,022.6 760.4 4.8

Nursing and residential care facilities Health care and social assistance 3,261.0 3,996.7 735.7 2.1

Food services and drinking places Leisure and hospitality 10,717.0 11,375.0 658.0 0.6

Offices of physicians Health care and social assistance 2,470.2 2,992.9 522.7 1.9

Local government educational services compensation State and local government 7,791.2 8,217.6 426.4 0.5

Employment services Professional and business services 3,421.0 3,845.8 424.8 1.2

Computer systems design and related services Professional and business services 1,777.7 2,186.6 408.9 2.1

Hospitals; private Health care and social assistance 4,784.3 5,179.2 394.9 0.8

Offices of other health practitioners Health care and social assistance 784.2 1,136.5 352.3 3.8

Outpatient care centers Health care and social assistance 711.1 1,059.2 348.1 4.1

Management, scientific, and technical consulting 

 services Professional and business services 1,244.4 1,573.7 329.3 2.4

Wholesale trade Wholesale trade 5,826.0 6,151.4 325.4 0.5

Individual and family services Health care and social assistance 2,032.5 2,318.8 286.3 1.3

General Merchandise stores Retail trade 3,113.6 3,376.8 263.2 0.8

Retail, except motor vehicle and parts dealers, 

 food and beverage stores, and general 

 merchandise stores Retail trade 7,395.6 7,646.6 251.0 0.3

Junior colleges, colleges, universities, and 

 professional schools; private Educational services; private 1,777.2 1,997.2 220.0 1.2

Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial 

 investments and related activities Financial activities 877.6 1,074.2 196.6 2.0

Offices of dentists Health care and social assistance 891.1 1,050.9 159.8 1.7

Motor vehicle and parts dealers Retail trade 1,861.3 2,017.2 155.9 0.8

Postal Service Federal government 593.0 427.9 -165.1 -3.2

Federal non-defense government compensation Federal government 1,514.8 1,404.3 -110.5 -0.8

Newspaper, periodical, book, and directory 

 publishers Information 412.3 309.0 -103.3 -2.8

Wired telecommunications carriers Information 607.0 509.2 -97.8 -1.7

Federal defense government compensation Federal government 522.2 440.0 -82.2 -1.7

Printing and related support activities Manufacturing 452.7 371.3 -81.4 -2.0

Apparel, leather, and allied manufacturing Manufacturing 168.5 91.7 -76.8 -5.9

Crop production Agriculture 765.6 699.9 -65.7 -0.9

Plastics product manufacturing Manufacturing 541.6 478.5 -63.1 -1.2

Textile mills and textile product mills Manufacturing 232.1 174.2 -57.9 -2.8

Other miscellaneous manufacturing Manufacturing 275.2 219.3 -55.9 -2.2

Electric power generation, transmission and 

 distribution Utilities 392.1 351.3 -40.8 -1.1

Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control 

 instruments manufacturing Manufacturing 388.3 353.1 -35.2 -0.9

Semiconductor and other electronic component 

 manufacturing Manufacturing 367.8 332.7 -35.1 -1.0

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing Manufacturing 162.8 135.5 -27.3 -1.8

Travel arrangement and reservation services Professional business services 195.7 168.9 -26.8 -1.5

Aerospace product and parts manufacturing Manufacturing 488.4 464.1 -24.3 -0.5

Communications equipment manufacturing Manufacturing 93.5 69.5 -24.0 -2.9

Motor vehicle parts manufacturing Manufacturing 536.6 514.0 -22.6 -0.4

Federal enterprises except the Postal Service and 

 electric utilities Federal government 81.1 58.9 -22.2 -3.1

 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Largest Growth 

 Largest Declines 

 Employment Change
Table 4. Employment by major occupational group, 2014 and projected 2024

(Numbers in thousands)

 Change, 2014-24

 Major Occupation Group 2014 2024Total, all occupations 150,539.9 160,328.8 9,788.9 6.5 $35,540 Management occupations 9,157.5 9,662.9 505.4 5.5 97,230 Business and financial operations occupations 7,565.3 8,197.8 632.4 8.4 64,790 Computer and mathematical occupations 4,068.3 4,599.7 531.4 13.1 79,420 Architecture and engineering occupations 2,532.7 2,599.9 67.2 2.7 75,780 Life, physical, and social science occupations 1,310.4 1,408.0 97.6 7.4 61,450 Community and social service occupations 2,465.7 2,723.4 257.7 10.5 41,290 Legal occupations 1,268.2 1,332.8 64.6 5.1 76,860 Education, training, and library occupations 9,216.1 9,913.7 697.6 7.6 46,660 occupations 2,624.2 2,731.7 107.5 4.1 45,180 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 8,236.5 9,584.6 1,348.1 16.4 61,710 Healthcare support occupations 4,238.0 5,212.2 974.2 23.0 26,440 Protective service occupations 3,443.8 3,597.7 153.9 4.5 37,180 Food preparation and serving related occupations 12,467.6 13,280.4 812.9 6.5 19,130 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance  occupations 5,617.2 5,967.0 349.8 6.2 23,270 Personal care and service occupations 6,006.1 6,798.2 792.1 13.2 21,260 Sales and related occupations 15,423.1 16,201.1 778.0 5.0 25,360 Office and administrative support occupations 22,766.1 23,232.6 466.5 2.0 32,520 Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 972.1 914.9 -57.2 -5.9 20,250 Construction and extraction occupations 6,501.7 7,160.7 659.0 10.1 41,380 Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,680.5 6,046.0 365.5 6.4 42,110 Production occupations 9,230.3 8,948.3 -282.1 -3.1 31,720 Transportation and material moving occupations 9,748.5 10,215.3 466.8 4.8 29,530 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Employment 

 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Number Percent

 Median annual 

wage, 2014
Table 5. Fastest growing occupations, 2014-24

(Numbers in thousands)

 Change, 2014-24 Median annual

2014 2024 Number Percent wage, 2014 

Total, all occupations 150,539.9 160,328.8 9,788.9 6.5 $35,540 —  Wind turbine service technicians 4.4 9.2 4.8 108.0 48,800 Some colle Occupational therapy assistants 33.0 47.1 14.1 42.7 56,950 Associate's  Physical therapist assistants 78.7 110.7 31.9 40.6 54,410 Associate's  Physical therapist aides 50.0 69.5 19.5 39.0 24,650 High schoo Home health aides 913.5 1,261.9 348.4 38.1 21,380 No formal  Commercial divers 4.4 6.0 1.6 36.9 45,890 Postsecond Nurse practitioners 126.9 171.7 44.7 35.2 95,350 Master's de Physical therapists 210.9 282.7 71.8 34.0 82,390 Doctoral o Statisticians 30.0 40.1 10.1 33.8 79,990 Master's de Ambulance drivers and attendants,  except emergency medical technicians 19.6 26.1 6.5 33.0 24,080 High schoo Occupational therapy aides 8.8 11.6 2.7 30.6 26,550 High schoo Physician assistants 94.4 123.2 28.7 30.4 95,820 Master's de Operations research analysts 91.3 118.9 27.6 30.2 76,660 Bachelor's  Personal financial advisors 249.4 323.2 73.9 29.6 81,060 Bachelor's  Cartographers and photogrammetrists 12.3 15.9 3.6 29.3 60,930 Bachelor's  Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Employment Typica

Occupation
Table 6. Occupations with the most job growth, 2014-24

(Numbers in thousands)

 Change, 2014-24 Median annual

2014 2024 Number Percent wage, 2014 

Total, all occupations 150,539.9 160,328.8 9,788.9 6.5 $35,540 — 

Personal care aides 1,768.4 2,226.5 458.1 25.9 20,440 No formal 

Registered nurses 2,751.0 3,190.3 439.3 16.0 66,640 Bachelor's Home health aides 913.5 1,261.9 348.4 38.1 21,380 No formal Combined food preparation and serving  workers, including fast food 3,159.7 3,503.2 343.5 10.9 18,410 No formal Retail salespersons 4,624.9 4,939.1 314.2 6.8 21,390 No formal Nursing assistants 1,492.1 1,754.1 262.0 17.6 25,100 PostsecondCustomer service representatives 2,581.8 2,834.8 252.9 9.8 31,200 High schooCooks, restaurant 1,109.7 1,268.7 158.9 14.3 22,490 No formal General and operations managers 2,124.1 2,275.2 151.1 7.1 97,270 Bachelor's Construction laborers 1,159.1 1,306.5 147.4 12.7 31,090 No formal Accountants and auditors 1,332.7 1,475.1 142.4 10.7 65,940 Bachelor's Medical assistants 591.3 730.2 138.9 23.5 29,960 PostsecondJanitors and cleaners, except maids and  housekeeping cleaners 2,360.6 2,496.9 136.3 5.8 22,840 No formal Software developers, applications 718.4 853.7 135.3 18.8 95,510 Bachelor's Laborers and freight, stock, and material 

 movers, hand 2,441.3 2,566.4 125.1 5.1 24,430 No formal 

 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

 Employment Typical 

 Occupation