The Current Population Survey: 

a historical perspective and BLS' role 

BLs assumed major responsibility for the cps in 1959 

and since then there have been increases in sample size, 

changes in and additions of questions, 

and refinements in the household survey's concept, 

but, in general, the basic concepts have remained 

the same since the survey's beginnings in 1940 

JOHN E. BREGGER 

The Current Population Survey is probably the oldest continuous monthly sample survey of households in the world. 

Its roots go back to March 1940, when the Works Progress 

Administration, an independent agency established during 

the Great Depression of the 1930'x, initiated a small, household survey that would measure the level and change in the 

size of the labor force, employment, and unemployment. 

In the ensuing period, the survey has grown to its present 

size of 60,000 households, and more information is now 

collected. But the 44 years have seen few changes in the 

basic concepts used to measure employment and unemployment, and a remarkably comparable set of historical 

data is available for public use. This article describes the 

history of the Current Population Survey, with particular 

emphasis on its development in the past quarter century, 

over which time the Bureau of Labor Statistics has had 

primary responsibility for the survey . 

The 1940-59 period 

During the Great Depression it became obvious to policymakers that accurate statistical information on unemployment and related problems was unavailable . Estimates 

of employment existed through the survey of nonagricultural 

John E. Bregger is chief, Division of Employment and Unemployment 

Analysis, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics . Bureau of 

Labor Statistics . 

establishments that had been conducted by BLS since 1915, 

and counts of "gainful workers" were obtained in the decennial censuses . But throughout the worst years of the 

depression, no one knew how many unemployed persons 

there were, much less their characteristics . (Later, it was 

estimated that the jobless rate had been as high as 25 percent .') The problem of obtaining more accurate estimates 

of unemployment was first addressed with the 1937 Census 

of Unemployment, a postcard survey covering the entire 

country.'- This survey presented numerous problems, because no statistical controls were possible, such as for nonresponse, but it whetted appetites for more data, leading to 

the first sample survey of the population in December 1939 . ; 

The first 3 months of the survey were a testing period, and 

March 1940 is generally credited as the beginning date of 

what was then called the "Monthly Report of Unemployment ." This date coincided with the 1940 census of population, which also, for the first time, asked questions on 

the labor force, employment, and unemployment based on 

a new activity concept . 

The activity concept refers to a person's labor market 

status being determined by what he or she was doing during 

a specified time (which has come to be a specific week). 

Prior to the 1937 postcard census, the labor force concept 

used was the "gainful-worker" measure. This referred to 

persons who were reporting themselves as having an occupation from which they had earned money or a money 
equivalent, or in which they had assisted in the production 

of goods, regardless of whether they had worked or looked 

for work at the time of the census.' Consideration of these 

responses was useful when interest was focused on broad 

measures of potential labor supply and available skills . 

However, it was not particularly useful as a measure of 

current labor force utilization, because it included not only 

currently employed persons but also some people who were 

either unemployed or not in the labor force . The activity 

concept solved this problem, and, beginning with the postcard census and continuing in the Works Progress Administration-initiated survey . it was established that the population 

could be divided into employed, unemployed . or not in the 

labor force . Only the amount and type of detail collected 

and the degree of sophistication of the questions have changed 

since then, although there have been many changes in the 

survey and sample design . The conceptual framework has 

been revised only around the edges: There has been no 

change in the notions that employment means that one is 

working (more precisely, has a job), that unemployment 

requires that a job is being sought, and that absence of either 

activity means a person is not in the labor force . 

The Works Progress Administration retained responsibility for the survey throughout 1940 and 1941, but as the 

agency began to be phased out of existence it became clear 

that the survey needed a permanent home. The Bureau of 

Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, and Social Security Administration were all candidates, and in August 1942 the 

Bureau of the Budget (now the Office of Management and 

Budget) selected the Census Bureau .' By October 1943, the 

Bureau of Census had thoroughly revised the sample, converted it to a full probability basis, and expanded the number 

of primary sampling units . Within 2 years, the sample size 

was increased from about 8,000 to 23,000 housing units .' 

The name was changed as well, to the -Monthly Report 

on the Labor Force," and still later (1948) it became known 

as the Current Population Survey (cps) . 

The Census Bureau continued to introduce improvements 

into the survey over the next 15 years, including further 

sample expansions, sampling refinements, and the notion 

of collecting special information once a year on an ad hoc 

basis through supplements . Among the changes were the 

use of the decennial censuses as the basis for revising the 

sampling frame and population controls and the introduction 

of the 4-8-4 rotation system for sample households (that 

is, a household is in the sample for 4 months . out for 8, 

and returns for 4 more months) . By 1959, there were some 

35,000 households covered monthly in 330 areas throughout 

the Nation. 

1959-BLS takes over 

In a memorandum dated November 19, 1958. issued by 

the Bureau of the Budget, then Secretaries Lewis Strauss 

of the Department of Commerce and James Mitchell of the 

Department of Labor agreed to a BLS-Census Bureau swap 

of responsibilities . The BLS gave up its role in construction 

statistics, associated with contracts awarded, building permits, housing starts, and construction activity series ; the 

Census Bureau gave up the responsibility for the content, 

analysis, and publication of the "Monthly Report on the 

Labor Force." The memorandum indicated that "the BLS 

will purchase from the Census Bureau the collection and 

tabulation services," assume "the budget responsibility for 

the employment and unemployment statistics portion," and 

that the Census Bureau would retain responsibility for conducting specific cps supplements and issuing those reports . 

The effective date of this transfer of duties was July I, 

1959. 

Up to the time of the transfer, the employment and unemployment statistics were issued under Current Population 

Reports series P-57, entitled "The Monthly Report on the 

Labor Force ." Typically 16 pages, this report combined 

analysis and tabular material and was sold by the Census 

Bureau for 15 cents a copy. Summary statistics in advance 

of this report were issued jointly by the Departments of 

Commerce and Labor in a "Combined Employment and 

Unemployment Release" and included material not only 

from the cps but also data on nonagricultural payroll employment (from B1 .S) and State insured unemployment (from 

the then Bureau of Employment Security) . After the transfer . BLS continued the tradition of a combined release of 

data from these three programs with its own "Monthly 

Report on the Labor Force" and also began to include the 

household survey statistics in its monthly magazine Emplu~nient and Earnings . Indeed, it was undoubtedly the 

desire to centralize the control and analysis of data from 

separate sources-but particularly the household and establishment surveys'-that led to the transfer of functions . 

As time passed, a number of changes occurred in the 

publication format and amount of detail derived from the 

cps . For example . because cps data were generally available 

earlier than the establishment data. they were issued in summary detail in a news release entitled "Summary Employment and Unemployment Figures ." About a week later, the 

-Monthly Report on the Labor Force" was published, covered by another news release . "The Employment Situation ." This second news release averaged about four pages, 

with summary text and one table of highlights, while the 

"Monthly Report on the Labor Force" grew to some 20 

pages that included text, charts, data from both surveys, 

and explanatory material . 

In 1966 . improvements in the processing of the establishnient survey made it possible to release the two sets of 

data together, and "The Employment Situation" became 

the vehicle for this issuance . At the same time, the "Monthly 

Report on the Labor Force" was discontinued as a separate 

publication but was retained as part of Emplovinent and 

Earnings, which was retitled Employment and Earnings and 

Monthl_Y Report on the Labor Force. (In 1969, "Monthly 

Report on the Labor Force" was dropped from the title.) 
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW June 1984 " Historv of the CPS 

Along with the changes in the mode of issuance of these 

reports and releases came improvements in the detail presented . One important advance was in the area of seasonal 

adjustment of data series . In the 1950'x, the overall unemployment rate had been the only statistic that was adjusted 

for seasonality. Therefore, all analysis was based on unadjusted data . Analyses in those days contained frequent 

references to weather conditions and also to labor force and 

other changes that typically occurred at the given time of 

year and whether a particular monthly movement was more 

or less than usual . The advent of computers gave rise to the 

possibility of extensive seasonal adjustment, which eliminated much of this problem and clarified analytical interpretations . It also facilitated a better understanding of cyclical 

movements, as economic comparisons could be made more 

easily between pairs of months for periods other than I -year 

intervals . 

Changes since the takeover 

Growth in sample size . Since the transfer of functions 

between Bl .s and the Census, the number of surveyed households has been expanded on four occasions and reduced 

twice. The count remained at 35,000 occupied households 

from 1956 through the end of 1966 . Then, households that 

had been used in a separate panel survey for testing questionnaire changes during 1964-66 were added to increase 

the count to 50,000 .' An important reason for increasing 

the sample size was to improve the reliability of data on 

detailed worker groups, such as that pertaining to race, sex, 

and age. The size was subsequently reduced slightly to 

47,000 in the early 1970'x, as a result of a redesign of the 

sample following the 1970 census of population . However, 

certain sampling refinements resulted in increased data reliability; for example, area coverage was increased from 

333 to 449 primary sampling units. "' 

Later in the 1970'x, demands for State and area data 

increased markedly, commensurate with expanded uses of 

subnational labor force data . A variety of legislative mandates, including the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act, required unemployment data for States and areas 

as a basis for distributing billions of dollars in revenuesharing monies . The Current Population Survey as constituted at that time was essentially a national sample designed 

to produce national data . Prior to 1976, subnational data 

deemed sufficiently reliable to warrant publication, even on 

an annual average basis, covered only 10 States . 

BLS solved this problem by expanding the number of 

sample households for the less-populated States ; this was 

done in stages . In 1976, 9,000 additional households were 

sampled, with all of the expansion in 23 smaller States . 

Another 9,000 households were added to the survey in 1980, 

this time in 40 States . Initially, these 18,000 households 

were used to boost data reliability for State and sub-State 

estimation but subsequently were added to the national sample, also in stages . The national sample size thus became 

56,000 occupied households in 1978 and 65,000 in 1980 . 

There was a final sample increase of 6,000 households in 

1981, designed to improve the reliability of data for 30 

specific metropolitan areas, 10 of their central cities, and 

the balance of State estimates for those States containing 

these areas . (This last increase was never used for national 

estimates .) 

In 1982, with the advent of Federal budget stringencies, 

it became necessary to cut back on some of these added 

households . After a careful review of the needs for State 

and local labor force estimates. Bt.s at that time decided that 

the final 6,000 addition plus half of the 1980 addition would 

have to be rescinded . Thus, a total of 11,000 surveyed 

households was eliminated, and the monthly sample size 

became the current figure of 60,000 occupied households, 

representing 629 areas in 1,148 counties and independent 

cities . Because the expansions had not materially improved 

the reliability of national estimates-in that they concentrated on the less-populated States-this reduction in households did not reduce national data reliability . 

Conceptual and other changes . As indicated earlier, the 

advent of monthly household survey enumeration in the 

labor force field brought with it the notion of activity as a 

basis for categorizing the population into discrete employment status groupings. This conceptual basis has been sustained throughout the ensuing 44 years . There have been 

changes in the wording of some of the questions to improve 

understanding on the part of survey respondents and thus 

produce better results, refinements in the concept, and the 

addition of questions to elicit more information about the 

population, but the basic concepts have remained the same . 

Over time, the statistics that have generated the greatest 

interest have been the level and rate of unemployment. 

Unemployment is basically defined as being without a job, 

looking for one, and being currently available for work. 

Exhibit I , the questionnaire currently used in the survey, 

shows how the unemployed are identified through questions 

22 (yes), 22A, and 22E . Persons on layoff and those waiting 

to start a job within 30 days need not have looked for work 

to be counted as unemployed ; they are identified in questions 

21 and 21 A. Contrast this with the primary question (corresponding to question 22) asked in 1945: "Was . . . looking for work last week'?" Layoffs were not identified until 

1947 . Prior to 1945, interviewers did not even ask specific 

questions directly to respondents but were instructed to determine if, for example, they had jobs or were seeking them . 

By 1 .947, the "last week" was dropped-it had been specified for all previous questions associated with jobholdingand the question became: "Was . . . looking for work'?" 

In the early years, persons on a temporary layoff (less than 

30 days) and those awaiting the start of a new job (also 

within 30 days) were included among the employed. But, 

following recommendations by a 1955 study commission," 

both groups were shifted into the unemployed category be10 
Exhibit 1. Extract from Current Population Survey Interviewer Schedule 

18. LINE NUMBER 

19 . What was. . . doing most 

of LAST WEEK - 

Working 

Keeping hour 

20 . Did . . . do ant all 

LAST 

WEEK"=min. 

work around the house? 

(Note: I! form or bu .Uness 

operator In hh ., ask about 

unpaid work .) 

Going to school yes O No O (Go to 11) 

or something sir? 

__ - 20A. How many hours _ O O 

Working (Skip to 20A) . .WK O did . . . work I I 

With a job but not at work . . J O 

LAST WEEK c 2 

Looking for work. . . . . LK C at all jobs? 3 3 

Keeping house. . . . . . . H O 1, qGoing to school . . . . . . . . . . S C 20B. INTERVIEWER 5 5 

Unable to work (Skip to 24) .U O CHECKITEM G G 

Rethed. . . . . . R C 49* O (Skip to ? ? 

Other (Specify) . . . . . . .OT C 

it23) 1-34 O (Go r 9 9 

2DC) 

35-48 C (Go m 20D) 

20C . Does . . . USUALLY work 35 

hours or mom a week at this job? 

Yes O What is the mason 

. . worked loo than 

35 hours LAST WEEK? 

No O Whet is the ream 

. . . USUALLY works 

lest than 35 hours 

a week? 

(Mark the yproprlate roam) 

Slack work . . . . . . . . . . . O 

Material shortage . . . . . . . C 

Plant or machine repair . . . . . . O 

New job started during week . 

Job terminated during week. . C 

Could find only part-time work O 

Holiday(Legalorreligious) . . . C 

Labor dispute . . . . . . C 

200. Did . . .bar any time or 

take any time off LAST 

WEEK for any reason 

such n iline s, holiday 

or slack work? 

Yes O How many hours 

did . . . take offiii, 

(Correct 20A if lost tine 

not already deducted; 

If 20A reduced below 35, 

correct 208 and III!/ 20C, 

otherwise, skip to 23.) 

No O -i 

20E. Did . . work any overtime 

or at mom than one job 

LAST WEEK? 

11 . (1f Did) . in 19, sFip to 21A.) 

. have . job or 

businr from which he/she 

wave temporarily absent or 

on layoff LAST WEEK? 

22. (If LK /n 19, Skip to 22A.) 

Has . . . been looking for work 

during the past 4 woks? 

Yes O No O (Go to 24) 

Yes O No C (Gee to ) 

21 A . Why wee . . . absent from 

work LAST WEEK? 

22A . What ha . . Men doing in the 

4 weeks to find work? (Mark 

methods used, do not need list.) 

Checked with - 

hat 

d1 

Own illness. . . . O pub. employ, agency O 

pot . employ . agency O 

On vacation. . . . . O 

employer directly- G 

Bad weather . . . O friends or relatives' ., O 

Labor dispute . . O Placed or answered ads . . . O 

Nothing (Skip to 24). . . . . C 

New job to begin (Skip to Other (Specify ?n notes e.A, 

within 30 days 0 228 and CETA, union or pof 

2x2) register, arc.) . . . . . . C 

Temporary layoff 

(Under 30 days) O 

Indefinite layoff 

(30 days or more 

or no def recall 

(Skip 

2203) 

228. Why did . . . start looking 

for work? Wait it because . . . loss 

or quit a job at that time (pour) 

cr was tfwre soma other noon? 

date) . . . . . . C Lost job.. . . . . . - ID 

Quit job . . . . . . . . O Other (Specify) . . O Leftschool . . . . . O 

Wanted temporary work C 

Oth (S if h t ) O 

216 Is getting wages or 

er pec y rm o 

. . . . 

slary for any of the Lima 22C. 1) How many weeks O 

off LAST WEEK? ha . . ban looking I I 

for work? 2 2 

Yes. . . . O 3 3 

No . . . . . O 

Self-employed C 

21C. Doss . . usually work 

35 hours or more a weak 

yes O How many extra at this job? 

hours did. . .work 

X 

(Correct 20A end 208 a 

rreceaary Ilextne boon 

not already Included and 

skip to 23.) 

Yes O 

No O 

(Skip m 23 and enter lob 

held lost week) 

Bad weather . . . . . . O 

Own illness. . . . . . _ . . O 

No C 

(Skip to 23) 

INDUSTRY OCCUPATION 

On varation . . . . . . . . . U F OO Gar A O O N O 

Too busy with housework, I I I I B C I I P O 

school personal bus ., etc . . . C C 2 C C z 2 D O 

Did not want full-time work . . C 

E 3 3 D C 3 3 3 R O 

Full91me work week U 4 4 E C r r S C 

under 35 hours . . . . . . G S 

E 

5 5 F 5 5 5 T O 

Other reason (Spey'fy). . . . . . . . O G G G O G G G U O 

0 ? ? H C' ? ? ? V O 

N J o d 2 W O 

L 

Y 9 9 K 9 9 9 x O 

--------------------- L Y O 

(Skip m 23 and ante / 6 worked 

of last wail Ref O M O Ref O 2 O 

2) How, many soaks ago 

did . . start looking 

for work? 

3) How many weeks ago 

was . . told off? 

4 q5 5 

G G 

2 ? 

S 

9 9 

22D. Ha . . . been looking for full-time 

or part-time work? 

Full O Part O 

22E. Is them any reason why . . . could 

not take a job UST WEEK? 

Yes 

J No 

O Already has a job. . . . O 

`'Temporary illrwss . . . . O 

'~/ Going to school . . . . O 

O I Other(Specify in notes) O 

22F . When did . . last work at a 

full-time job or business lasting 

2 conscutive weeks or mom? 

Within last 12 months (Specify) . O 

(Month) / 

One to five years ago . . . . . . . . . O 

More than 5 years ago . . . . . . . O 

Never worked 

full-time 2 wks. or more . . . . . O 

Never worked at all . . . . . . . . . O 

(SKIP to 23. if Myoff entered 1n 2l A, 

enter)ob, either full or Port thus, from 

which sold off. Else enter lost full tine 

fob krsarq 2 weeks or roan, a 

"never sssrked. 

24.INTERVIEVIERCHECK ITEM 

------------- 

(RoMbn number) 

First digit of SEGMENT number k c. 

O 1, 3, 4, 5, 7 or 8 /Sk1O to 26) 

C 2 or 6 (Go to 24A) A, 

24A. VA .n did . . . lot work for pay a a 

regular job a bWnass, either full-or 

pert-time? 

25. INTERVIEWER CHECK ITEM 

(Rotation number) 

First dW of SEGMENT 

number la: 

O 1, 3.4, 5, 7 or 8 (Skip to 26) 

C 2 or 8 (Go to 25A) 

-10 

25A. How man hours 

Within pest 12 months O don. . . O 0 per weak 

1 up to 2 years ago . . O USUALLY I I 

2 up to 3 years ago . . . O (Go to 248 work at thq job? 2 

3 up to 4 years ago . . O 3 3 

4 up to 5 years ago. . O 11 q- 

(Skip to 5 

"."Y".47 

. . O 5 5 

Near worked . . . . . . O G G 

? ? 

248. Why did . . . lave that job? 

PersonN, family 9 9 

(1-1. pngrrerncy)or school . . . . . O 

Health . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 250.1t . . . paid by low hour 

on this job? 

Retirement or old age . . . . . . . . O Yes O (Go to 25c) 

Seasonal job completed. . . . O No O (Skip to 2SD) 

Slack work or business conditions O 25C. How much 

Temporary does . . . 

Dollars Cents 

nonseasonal job completed . . O am O O O O 

Unsatisfactory work 

per hour? I I I I 

arrangements (Hours, pay, etc.) O 

G 2 

Other. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . O 3 3 3 3 

24C. Does . . . went a regular job now, 1- reither full-or sstat-sinw? S 5 5 5 

" Yes . . . . . . . . . O 

~(Go to 24D) r G G G G 

Maybe - it depends O j 7 ? 7 7 

(Specify in noes) 

No . . . . . . . O (Skip to 

24E, 

Don 'I know . . . . O 

9 9 9 9 

240. What an On reran . . . is not 

looking for work? 

(Mark gc0 noon mentioned) 

a Believes no work 

available in line of work or era O 

a Couldn't fibs any work . . . . . . . . . . O 

a Lacks nec.schooli ng, 

Taming, sorexperience . C 

" Employers 

think tai young or loo old . . 0 

e Other pears. handicap in finding job O 

e Can't arrange child core . . . . . . O 

a Family responsibilities . . . . . . . . . O 

a In whool or other training . . . . . . . 

" III health , physical disability . . . 

" Other (Specify tan rarer) . . . . . . 

a Don't know . 

24E. Does . . . Intend to look for work 

of any kind in the mat 12 months? 

(ifenhy, in 246, describrlo b in 23 , 

otherwse, skip, to 26) 

LA V5D) 

250. How much does . . . 

USUALLY am 

per week at this 

job BEFORE 

deductions? 

Include any 

overtime pay. 

ednmigions, 

or tips usually 

retained . 

O U O 

I I I 

e 2 2 

3 3 3 

5 5 5 

G G G 

? 7 7 

9°~ 9 

O 25E. On this job, is . . . a cumber 

of a labor union or of an 

O employee association similar 

o to a union? 

Yes O (Skip to 26) 

O No O (Ask 25F) 

25F. On this job, k . . . covered 

O by a union or employee 

O association eontraa? 

O 

Yes O O 

O 

1(Go m 76) 

23 . DESCRIPTION OF JOB OR BUSINESS 

23A. For whom did . . work? (Name of-pony, business, orymriration or other, employer.) 23E. Wait this person 23F. INTERVIEWER 

An employee of PRIVATE Co, CHECKITEM 

but-, or individual for wages, salary a comm . P O 

S b D - A 

En'ny for NA) 

238 ate La or ept., . What kind of business or industry is this? (For example: TV and radio mfg, mall shoe stop, - A FEDERAL government employee . . . . . . F O (Go m item 20A O 

1 

A STATE government employee . . . . . . . S O ' 23F) (Go to 25 

f f ! 

A LOCAL government employee. . . . . . . .L O 

o op o 

Entry (or NA) ( Rage) 

23C. What kind of work was . . doing? (For example electrical engineer, stock clerk, typist, fame 

l 

initem2lB O 

Self-empl . in OWN bus . prof . practice, or farm 1. 

(Yea . 

Is the business incorporated? I I No . . SE C 

23D . What were . . .'s most important activities or duties at this job? (For example. type; keeps account books, files, . . (Skip All other cars O (Skip to 26) 

sells cars, openter printing onus, finishes correnm.) Working WITHOUT PAY in tam. bus, or form . . . WP O 1 to 26) 

NEVER WORKED . . . . . . . . . . . . . NEV O 

ginning in 1957. (Historical data were revised back to 1947 .) 

Many changes in the questionnaire occurred in 1967, 

resulting from recommendations made by the President's 

Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment 

Statistics (often called the Gordon Committee after its chair, 

Professor Robert A. Gordon) in its 1962 report, Measuring 

Employment and Unemployment. 

12 Changes affecting unemployment counts included moving to a 4-week search 

period from the implied 1 week, the requirement of at least 

one specific search method (to avoid "state of mind" situations), and the addition of an "availability test" to insure 

that jobless individuals were searching for a current job as 

opposed to one in the future . At the same time, the minimum 

age for labor force eligibility was raised from 14 to 16 years 

Yes . . . . . . . . 

It depends (Specify In notes) 

No . . . . . . . . . _ 

Don't know . . . . . . . . . 

11 
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW June 1984 " History of the CPS 

(not a Commission recommendation) in order to conform 

to age requirements regarding school attendance and work 

eligibility . In addition, those persons who volunteered that 

they would have looked for work except for the belief that 

there were no jobs available in their line of work or in the 

community were no longer counted as unemployed ; this 

change was made in keeping with the specific search method 

requirement . Also, persons who had a job but were "with 

a job but not at work" (such as on strike or vacation) and 

volunteered that they had looked for another job during their 

absence from their current job were switched from the unemployed to the employed count. Neither of these last two 

changes was thought to have greatly affected survey results ." 

Note the emphasis on the word volunteered. One of the 

Gordon Committee's tenets was that "reliance on subjective 

attitudes and volunteered information should be minimized ."" The changes that it recommended and that were 

instituted following a period of extensive testing by the BLS 

and Census Bureau during 1964-66 clarified several hitherto 

gray areas in the measurement of unemployment . Specifically, to be counted as unemployed, a person had to 

be: (1) without a job, (2) be available for one "now" 

(excluding temporary illness), and (3) indicate one or more 

search methods used sometime in the prior 4 weeks . Thus, 

the use of activity as a basis for labor force classification 

was strengthened . 

While the Gordon Committee suggested the elimination 

of volunteered discouragement from the unemployed count, 

it also recommended that more information be obtained on 

the entire group of persons not in the labor force . The result 

was the series of questions now numbered 24 . (See exhibit 

1 .) Labor force discouragement is identified primarily through 

questions 24C and 24D . Data on this important group have 

been collected regularly since 1967 and published on a 

quarterly basis. More recently, another presidential study 

group-the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics, chaired by Professor Sar Levitanexamined closely the measurement of labor market discouragement, among a number of other issues . Though ultimately concurring that discouraged workers should not be 

included among the unemployed, the Commission did recommend that several changes be made in their definition, 

foremost of which was a requirement of some previous job 

search, which it specified to be within the prior 6 months 

(but not, of course, within the last 4 weeks)." This recommendation was accepted by Secretaries of Labor Ray 

Marshall and Raymond J. Donovan," but, owing to the 

lack of funding to carry out adequate testing, it has not as 

yet been introduced into the survey . 

Data and analytical advances 

As indicated, one of the reasons that the responsibility 

for the Current Population Survey was transferred to the 

BLS was to integrate the analytical functions . The Bureau 

already had a well-respected journal, the Monthly Labor 

Review, which has served as the vehicle for much of the 

analysis of cps data . Numerous articles by BLS staff covering 

various aspects of labor force behavior and trends have 

appeared in the Review ; for example, a review of employment and unemployment developments is published annually ." The range of topics drawing on cps data has been 

extraordinarily diverse, reflecting the diversity of the survey 

itself. Thus, there have been articles on the employment 

situation of specific worker groups, for example, youth, the 

elderly, women, blacks, and Hispanics; on trends for specific economic sectors: agriculture, self-employment, and 

various occupational or industrial groups ; and on worker 

characteristics such as educational attainment, job tenure, 

or moonlighting . The focus may be a snapshot of conditions 

at a specific time, a study of secular trends, or an analysis 

of cyclical developments . Techniques of analysis range from 

relatively simple, cross-sectional comparisons to more complex quantitative procedures . Many of the articles, and particularly those based on cps supplements, also have been 

reprinted as Special Labor Force Reports. Beginning with 

the first one issued in 1960 on the subject of educational 

attainment of workers," there have been 252 of these reports 

published (as of February 1984) . In most cases, these reprinted reports contain special tabular material that does not 

appear in the articles . 

Responsibility for cps supplements has been shared by 

the Bt.s and the Census Bureau over the years . Indeed, the 

cps has also been available for other agencies to purchase 

space for special inquiries, and the Departments of Agriculture and Health and Human Services have been frequent 

users of the survey, taking advantage of the fact that, although it is primarily designed for the collection of employment and unemployment statistics, it is also a general 

population survey . At present, the Census Bureau uses the 

survey to obtain data on annual income of persons and 

families ; educational attainment, fertility, birth expectations, and migration of the population : and school enrollment of youth . The Bureau of Labor Statistics obtains data 

annually on the work experience of the population (in conjunction with the income supplement), the status of schoolage youth and recent school graduates and dropouts, educational attainment of workers, and the marital and family 

status of workers. Through 1981, Bl.s also obtained annual 

supplemental information on multiple jobholders, work 

schedules, and absences from work. On a less frequent, 

sometimes even ad hoc basis, data have been obtained from 

Bt.s-sponsored supplements on job and occupational tenure, 

occupational mobility, work history and job search of the 

unemployed, and how workers got their jobs . Most recently, 

a special supplement was conducted in January 1984 on 

displaced workers . 

Much effort has gone into expanding the amount of statistical detail published-and also the amount available for 

special analyses or for users-principally in "The Em12 
ployment Situation" news releases and in Employment and 

Earnings . In addition to this expansion of monthly detail, 

new data series have been added on a quarterly basis, covering such features as family status of workers, weekly 

earnings of individuals and families, Hispanics, veterans, 

metropolitan areas, poverty areas, and persons not in the 

labor force (including discouraged workers) . For the convenience of users, BLs has provided additional published 

reports on a quarterly basis-for women, minorities . and 

workers' earnings . Chartbooks have also been issued on an 

occasional basis ." A major achievement has been the issuance of a two-volume historical databook.=° In order to 

clarify the survey, the data, and the concepts, BLs has prepared a number of special technical reports, including How 

the Government Measures Unemployment ,=' which has been 

updated and reissued on several occasions. 

The data on weekly wage and salary earnings referred to 

earlier (see questions 25A-25D in exhibit I) became a part 

of the monthly survey questionnaire in 1979, after having 

been previously collected through a cps supplement. More 

recently, BLs has added survey questions eliciting information on the union affiliation of employed persons (25E 

and 25F) ; publication of these data has not yet been initiated 

but will probably begin within a year . Another addition to 

the monthly questionnaire, not shown in the exhibit, asks 

persons who are 16 to 24 years old whether they are currently 

enrolled in school and, if so, whether they attend college 

or high school on a full- or part-time basis. This resulted 

from a recommendation by the National Commission on 

Employment and Unemployment Statistics .''-2 and, as with 

the union membership information, these data have not as 

yet been published . In both cases, however, BLS will begin 

publishing the data on a continuing basis as soon as the 

survey results have been carefully reviewed for accuracy 

and consistency . 

The future of cps 

Between April 1984 and July 1985, an entirely new sample is being phased in, based on information and materials 

from the 1980 census of population . Redesigns are routine, 

in the sense that this process has occurred following every 

decennial census since the survey's inception . However, the 

current redesign is not routine but, rather, has involved an 

extensive reexamination of the entire survey process. Perhaps the biggest change is that, heretofore, the cps has had 

a national sample design . But as previously discussed, the 

demands for subnational data that arose in the 1970's needed 

to be accommodated . In the sampling design now being 

introduced, the national sample will be the combination of 

51 individual samples-each State plus the District of Columbia. 

Further changes in the questionnaire are being contemplated, but implementation, if feasible, would first require 

testing and evaluation . Past experience, particularly with 

the introduction of the new questionnaire in 1967, has made 

it clear that survey revisions cannot be made without extensive testing in a survey panel that is separate and distinct 

from the cps . We have learned, for example, that changes 

in wording or in seemingly irrelevant areas can affect the 

important measures of employment and unemployment . Thus, 

the plan to revise the definition of discouragement cannot 

be put into place until after full testing . 

In addition to the discouragement measurement change, 

consideration is being given to two comparatively minor 

changes that can be expected to affect the composition of 

unemployment. One of the ways the unemployed are classified is by their "reason for unemployment"-that is, whether 

they lost their last job, left it, or entered the labor force . 

Within the job-loser category are persons on layoff (who 

expect recall to their former job) and persons who have 

permanently lost their job (other job losers) . As was discussed by Robert W. Bednarzik in "Layoff and permanent 

job losses : workers' traits and cyclical patterns," there is a 

strong suspicion that the extent of unemployment stemming 

from worker layoffs is overstated .-'' Through a test conducted by the BLs and the Census Bureau in 1982, it was 

learned that while the term "on layoff," as used in questions 

21 and 21 A, is intended to refer to a job from which a 

person has been suspended with the expectation of recall, 

the nonstatistical community-including some survey respondents-interpret the word more broadly to mean that 

a job was lost, whether or not recall was anticipated. 2' The 

concept of layoff that is meant to be measured with question 

21 must be specified more precisely for the respondent, so 

that persons reporting themselves on layoff will fit the definition intended in the survey . A rewording of the question 

would move some unemployed from the layoff to the other 

job-losers category, in which persons are searching for work, 

but only adequate testing could determine the extent of the 

change . Moreover, a few of those currently classified as 

being on layoff may not have sought work in the prior 4 

weeks and, if so, would properly be classified as not in the 

labor force . 

The second possible candidate for change in the unemployment area concerns "persons expecting to start a new 

job within 30 days ." As described earlier, this category was 

included among the employed prior to 1957 and then shifted 

into the unemployed beginning that year . Current thinking 

is that the concept need not exist at all . Once again, reporting 

depends upon volunteered responses, violating an important 

Gordon Committee dictum. If there were a specific question-as the Canadian government discovered when it added 

one to its own labor force survey'-5-there would be a much 

larger group than the 100,000 or so count we obtain on 

average . But most persons in this situation realize that they 

do not possess a job until they are in it . Preliminary research 

indicates that the bulk of the persons in this category report 

recent job search, in any case . Thus, eliminating the concept 

will also eliminate yet another volunteered response group 

in the survey as well as a jobseeking exception but probably 

13 
MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW June 1984 e Historv of the CPS 

not affect the counts in any way. Because separate test 

panels can be quite expensive as well as difficult to institute, 

considerably more time will be necessary before implementation of this or the other two changes can be accomplished, if they can be carried out at all . 

ALL OF THESE EFFORTS-the ongoing collection and analysis, data expansion, survey redesign, questionnaire testing, 

special supplement planning, and so forth-would not be 

possible without full cooperation between the Bureau of 

Labor Statistics and the Census Bureau . This has been the 

case on a continuing basis from the first day that BLs entered 

the picture 25 years ago as the survey's prime sponsor. A 

steering committee composed of BLs and Census representatives meets monthly to resolve problems and monitor progress . Working groups on specific issues come into existence 

as the . need arises . But the key to its successful operation 

has been the almost daily contact between members of both 

Bureaus' staffs . All recognize that the survey is important, 

and both agencies have historically geared their efforts to 

its continued accuracy and improvement. It is because of 

this joint commitment that the Current Population Survey 

has been sustained as a vitally important statistical vehicle 

for measuring the economic health of our Nation and its 

people . 0 

FOOTNOTES 

'See Stanley Lebergott, "Labor Force. Employment, and Unemployment, 1929-39: Estimating Methods," Monthly Labor Review . July 1948 . 

The Lebergott estimates were adopted as "official" and arc published as 

such in Bt.s and Census Bureau publications . Lebergott subsequently made 

estimates of unemployment back to 1900 in Manpower and Economic 

Growth (New York, McGraw Hill Book Co. . 1964). 

'-See Gertrude Baneroft . The American Lahor Force (New York . John 

Wiley and Sons, Inc., 1958), p. 183 . The census was conducted on Nov. 

16, 1937, by the Bureau of the Census, with the cooperation of the Post 

Office Department . 

3 See Lester R . Frankel and J. Stevens Stock. "On the Sample Survey 

of Unemployment," Journal of the American Statistical Association, March 

1942, pp . 77-80. 

'See Gertrude Baneroft, The American Labor Force. p. 156. Also see 

John D. Durand, The Labor Force in the United States, /R90-1960 (New 

York, Social Science Research Council . 1948) . pp . 12-13. 

'See A. Ross Eckler, The Bureau of the Census (New York . Pracger 

Publishers, 1972), pp . 70-71 . 

"An indication of the impact of these changes appears in Robert L. 

Stein. "New Definitions tier Employment and Unemployment ." 

'Measuring Emplovnuent and Unemployment, p . 15 . 

"National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics . 

Counting the Luhor Force (Washington, U .S . Government Printing Office . 

Labor Day 1979). pp. 44-49, 56 . For a summary of the Commission's 

recommendations, see Robert L. Stein, "National Commission recommends changes in labor force statistics ." Monthly Labor Review . April 

1980, pp . 11-21 . 

"See Interim Report of the Secretary of Labor on the Recommendations 

of the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics, 

transmitted to the Congress on Mar. 3, 1980 . and Final Report of the 

Secretary of Labor of the Recommendations of the National Commission 

on Employment and Unernplovntent Statistics . transmitted to the Congress 

on Oct. 26 . 1981 . 

"See, for example . Eugene H. Backer and Norman Bowers . "Employment and unemployment improvements widespread in 1983," Monthly 

Labor Review, February 1984 . 

'See Department of Commerce . Bureau of the Census, The Current 

Population Survey : Design and Methodology, Technical Paper 40 (Washington, U .S . Government Printing Office . 1977), p . 2 . 

'Executive Office of the President, Bureau of the Budget . Memorandum 

for Secretary Strauss and Secretary Mitchell, subject: "Construction and 

Labor Force Statistics," Nov . 19 . 1958 . 

"The insured unemployment statistics arc no longer published in Employment and Earnings, having been replaced by State and area estimates 

of labor force and unemployment . 

"See Robert L. Stein, "New Definitions for Employment and Unemployment," Employment and Earnings and Monthly Report on the Labor 

Force, February 1967, pp . 3-27 . 

"'The Current Population Suarve~v : Design and Methodology. p . 4 . 

"See "Interim Report of the Review of Concepts Subcommittee to the 

Committee on Labor Supply, Employment and Unemployment Statistics, 

Joint Economic Committee, 84th Cong ., Ist sass . . Nov . 7 and 8. 1955, 

7 . P- 

`=President's Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment 

Statistics, Measuring Employment and Unennplownent (Washington . U.S . 

Government Printing Office, 1962) . 

"Arnold Katz, "Educational Attainment of Workers. 1959 ." Special 

Labor Force Report No. I (reprinted from the February 1960 issue of the 

Monthly Labor Review). 

"Two examples are Women at Work : A Churtbook, Bulletin 2168 

(Washington, Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1983) and Workers Without 

Jobs : A Charthook on Unerryrloynneni, Bulletin 2174 (Washington . Bureau 

of Labor Statistics, July 1983). 

"' Labor Farce Statistics Derived Front the Current Population Survey : 

A Datetbook, Bulletin 2096 . September 1982 . 

" How the Government Measures Unemployment . Report 505 (Washington, Bureau of Labor Statistics . 1977). 

==Counting the Labor Force. pp . 89-90. 

'-'Robert W. Bednarzik. "Layoffs and permanent job losses : workers' 

traits and cyclical patterns ." Monthly Labor Review . September 1983, 

p. 11 . 

"Robert W. Bednarzik. "Layoffs and permanent job losses . 

'5 See "New Job to Start at a Future Date," The Labour Force (Statistics 

Canada, Cat . No. 71-001 . March 1977) .