Technical Information:  (202) 691-5700                            USDL  99-339

Media Contact:          (202) 691-5902                For release: 10 A.M. EST
                                                    Tuesday, November 30, 1999
Internet: http://stats.bls.gov/emphome.htm  


               BLS RELEASES NEW 1998-2008 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS


     New projections for the American work force from 1998 to 2008 were 
released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, 
providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and 
occupation and what the makeup of the work force pursuing those jobs is 
likely to be.

     These 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor 
force, and economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in planning 
education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends.

Employment

     Over the 1998-2008 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14 
percent.  This growth rate is slower than during the previous 10-year period, 
1988-1998, when growth was 17 percent.  (The definition of employment used in 
these projections differs from those used in other BLS programs.  See table 1.)

Industry employment 

* Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job 
  growth.   Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector, 
  offsetting declines in manufacturing and mining.

* Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as a decrease of 
  89,000 manufacturing jobs is projected.  Manufacturing is expected to
  maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this sector is
  projected to increase.  Accounting for 13 percent of employment in 1998,
  manufacturing is expected to account for just 12 percent in 2008.

* Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, 
  management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of 
  every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added to the economy during the 
  1998-2008 period.  The five fastest-growing industries all belong to one of 
  these four industry groups.  (See table 3a.)  

Occupational employment

* Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest and 
  to add the most jobs--5.3  million.  This group also had the fastest rate of 
  increase and the largest job growth in the 1988-98 period.  Service workers
  are expected to add 3.9 million jobs.  These two groups--on opposite ends of
  the educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to provide 45
  percent of total projected job growth over the 1998-2008 period.  (See table 2.)

* Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are 
  executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and
  related support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations.  

* Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to grow
  slower than the average and slightly slower than in the past, reflecting the
  impact of office automation.  

* Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators,
  fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the
  average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production
  methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment.

* The five fastest-growing occupations are computer-related occupations,
  commonly referred to as information technology occupations.  (See table 3b.)

* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for nearly one-fifth of
  total employment growth.  (See table 3c.)

Education and training

     Employment in all education and training categories that generally require 
an associate degree or more education is projected to grow faster than the 14 
percent average for all occupations.  In contrast, all other categories are 
expected to grow less than 14 percent.  Occupations generally requiring an 
associate degree are projected to grow 31 percent, faster than all other 
education categories over the 1998-2008 period.  (See table 4.)

Labor force

     The supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by 12 
percent over the 1998-2008 period.  This represents a somewhat lower growth 
rate than the 13 percent increase over the previous 10-year period, 1988-98.  
(See table 5.)  The projections indicate that the demographic composition of 
the labor force is expected to change because the population itself will change 
and because work force participation will change.

* The labor force age 45-64 will grow faster than the labor force of any other
  age group as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-64) continues to age.  The
  labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by 2.7 million,
  reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and early 1970s.

* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are
  projected to increase.  Men's labor force participation rates for 5-year age
  groups are projected to remain relatively constant, but aggregate
  participation is projected to continue to decline as the population shifts to
  older age groups that have lower participation rates.  As a result, the
  women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's, and the women's
  share of the labor force will increase from 46 percent in 1998 to 48 percent
  in 2008.

* The Asian and other labor force and the Hispanic labor force are projected to
  increase faster than other groups, 40 percent and 37 percent, respectively,
  because of high net immigration and higher than average fertility.  The black
  labor force is expected to grow by 20 percent, twice as fast as the 10
  percent growth rate for the white labor force.

* The Asian and other share of the labor force will increase from 5 to 6
  percent and the Hispanic share from 10 to 13 percent.  White non-Hispanics
  accounted for 74 percent of the labor force in 1998. Their share of the labor
  force in 2008 will decrease modestly to 71 percent.  

* By 2008, the Hispanic labor force will be larger than the black labor force.

Notes

     More detailed information on the 1998-2008 projections appears in five 
articles in the November 1999 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by 
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  A graphic 
presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the 
forthcoming Winter 1999-2000 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. 

     The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by 
the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.  The Review 
costs $27 a year; single copies are $8.50.  The Quarterly costs $9.50 a year; 
single copies are $3.75.  Make checks payable to the Superintendent 
of Documents.

     Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired 
individuals upon request.  Voice phone:  202-606-7828, Telecommunications 
Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone 
Number: 1-800-326-2577.


Table 1.  Employment by major industry division, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
                                 Thousands of jobs          Change	     Percent Change   Percent distribution
Industry                      1988     1998     2008   1988-98  1998-2008  1988-98  1998-2008   1988   1998   2008
                                                                                                                
Total 1/                    120,010  140,514  160,795   20,503    20,281      17       14      100.0  100.0  100.0
                                                                                                        
 Nonfarm wage and salary 2/  105,723 125,849  145,285   20,125    19,437      19       15       88.1   89.6   90.4
  Goods producing            25,125   25,347   25,694      222       347       1        1       20.9   18.0   16.0
    Mining                      713      590      475     -123      -115     -17      -19         .6     .4     .3
    Construction              5,098    5,985    6,535      887       550      17        9        4.2    4.3    4.1
    Manufacturing            19,314   18,772   18,684     -542       -89      -3        0       16.1   13.4   11.6
      Durable                11,363   11,170   11,277     -193       107      -2        1        9.5    7.9    7.0
      Nondurable              7,951    7,602    7,406     -349      -196      -4       -3        6.6    5.4    4.6
                                                                                                                 
  Service producing          80,598  100,502  119,591   19,903    19,090      25       19       67.2   71.5   74.4
    Transportation,                                                                                                  
      communications, and                                                                                         
      utilities               5,512    6,600    7,541    1,088       941      20       14        4.6    4.7    4.7
    Wholesale trade           6,030    6,831    7,330      802       499      13        7        5.0    4.9    4.6
    Retail trade             19,023   22,296   25,363    3,273     3,067      17       14       15.9   15.9   15.8
    Finance, insurance, and                                                                                         
      real estate             6,629    7,408    8,367      778       960      12       13        5.5    5.3    5.2
    Services 2/              26,019   37,548   49,302   11,529    11,754      44       31       21.7   26.7   30.7
    Government               17,386   19,819   21,688    2,433     1,869      14        9       14.5   14.1   13.5
      Federal government      2,971    2,686    2,550     -285      -136     -10       -5        2.5    1.9    1.6
      State and local                                                                                        
        government           14,415   17,133   19,138    2,718     2,005      19       12       12.0   12.2   11.9
                                                                                                                
 Agriculture 3/               3,355    3,576    3,526      287       -51       9       -1        2.8    2.5    2.2
 Private household wage                                                                                             
   and salary                 1,153      962      759     -191      -203     -17      -21        1.0    0.7    0.5
 Nonagricultural                                                                                                    
   self-employed and                                                                                                 
   unpaid family workers 4/   8,731    9,029    9,925      298       896       3       10        7.3    6.4    6.2
 Secondary wage and salary                                                                                           
  jobs in agriculture                                                                                                
  (except agricultural                                                                                                
  services); forestry,                                                                                               
  fishing, hunting, and                                                                                              
  trapping; and private                                                                                              
  households 5/                 211      163      158      -48        -5     -23       -3        0.2    0.1    0.1
 Secondary jobs as a                                                                                                
   self-employed or                                                                                                  
   unpaid family worker 6/    1,990    1,897    1,901      -94         5      -5        0        1.7    1.3    1.2
										
1/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly, Current 
     Employment Statistics (payroll survey), which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family worker, 
     agricultural, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which 
     counts workers.
2/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments) and is therefore not 
     directly comparable with data published in the Bureau of Labor Statistics monthly periodical, Employment 
     and Earnings.
3/ Excludes government wage and salary workers and includes private sector for SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, 
     hunting, and trapping).
4/ Excludes SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping).
5/ Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services); forestry, 
     fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households.
6/ Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.

Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
                                                               Employment                                  Change
Occupational group                                 Number               Percent distribution      Number            Percent
                                               1988     1998     2008    1988   1998   2008  1988-98 1998-2008  1988-98  1998-2008
  Total, all occupations                     120,010  140,514  160,795  100.0  100.0  100.0   20,504  20,281      17.1     14.4
Executive, administrative, and managerial     12,330   14,770   17,196   10.3   10.5   10.7    2,440   2,426      19.8     16.4
Professional specialty                        15,035   19,802   25,145   12.5   14.1   15.6    4,767   5,343      31.7     27.0
Technicians and related support                3,880    4,949    6,048    3.2    3.5    3.8    1,069   1,098      27.6     22.2
Marketing and sales                           12,390   15,341   17,627   10.3   10.9   11.0    2,950   2,287      23.8     14.9
Administrative support, including clerical    22,251   24,461   26,659   18.5   17.4   16.6    2,210   2,198       9.9      9.0
Service                                       18,554   22,548   26,401   15.5   16.0   16.4    3,993   3,853      21.5     17.1
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related    4,224    4,435    4,506    3.5    3.2    2.8      212      71       5.0      1.6
Precision production, craft, and repair       14,333   15,619   16,871   11.9   11.1   10.5    1,286   1,252       9.0      8.0
Operators, fabricators, and laborers          17,012   18,588   20,341   14.2   13.2   12.7    1,576   1,753       9.3      9.4

Note:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.



Table 3a.  The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
               Industry                       Employment      Change
                                             1998   2008  Number  Percent
Computer and data processing services       1,599  3,472   1,872    117
Health services, not elsewhere classified   1,209  2,018     809     67
Residential care                              747  1,171     424     57
Management and public relations             1,034  1,500     466     45
Personnel supply services                   3,230  4,623   1,393     43
Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing    258    369     111     43
Museums, botanical and zoological gardens      93    131      39     42
Research and testing services                 614    861     247     40
Miscellaneous transportation services         236    329      94     40
Security and commodity brokers                645    900     255     40
				

Table 3b.  The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
          Occupation                  Employment       Change
                                     1998   2008   Number   Percent
            
Computer engineers                    299    622    323       108
Computer support specialists          429    869    439       102
Systems analysts                      617  1,194    577        94
Database administrators                87    155     67        77
Desktop publishing specialists         26     44     19        73
Paralegals and legal assistants       136    220     84        62
Personal care and home health aides   746  1,179    433        58
Medical assistants                    252    398    146        58
Social and human service assistants   268    410    141        53
Physician assistants                   66     98     32        48
            

Table 3c.  The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1998-2008
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
             Occupation                Employment        Change
                                      1998    2008   Number   Percent
            
Systems analysts                       617   1,194     577      94
Retail salespersons                  4,056   4,620     563      14
Cashiers                             3,198   3,754     556      17
General managers and top executives  3,362   3,913     551      16
Truck drivers, light and heavy       2,970   3,463     493      17
Office clerks, general               3,021   3,484     463      15
Registered nurses                    2,079   2,530     451      22
Computer support specialists           429     869     439     102
Personal care and home health aides    746   1,179     433      58
Teacher assistants                   1,192   1,567     375      31
            

Table 4.  Employment and total job openings, 1998-2008, by education and training category
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
                                                     Employment                Change, 	    Total job openings due to
                                                                              1998-2008    growth and net replacements,
                                                                                                   1998-2008 1/
                                                              Percent                                     Percent
   Education and training category             Number       distribution   Number  Percent     Number  distribution
                                           1998     2008     1998   2008		   		
       Total, all occupations            140,514  160,795   100.0  100.0   20,281   14.4       55,008   100.0
First professional degree                  1,908    2,215     1.4    1.4      308   16.1          617     1.1
Doctoral degree                              996    1,228      .7     .8      232   23.3          502      .9
Master's degree                              940    1,115      .7     .7      174   18.6          374      .7
Work experience plus bachelor's                                                                              
   or higher degree                        9,595   11,276     6.8    7.0    1,680   17.5        3,372     6.1
Bachelor's degree                         17,379   21,596    12.4   13.4    4,217   24.3        7,822    14.2
Associate degree                           4,930    6,467     3.5    4.0    1,537   31.2        2,422     4.4
Postsecondary vocational training          4,508    5,151     3.2    3.2      643   14.3        1,680     3.1
Work experience in a related occupation   11,174   12,490     8.0    7.8    1,316   11.8        3,699     6.7
Long-term on-the-job training             13,436   14,604     9.6    9.1    1,168    8.7        4,411     8.0
Moderate-term on-the-job training         20,521   21,952    14.6   13.7    1,430    7.0        6,218    11.3
Short-term on-the-job training            55,125   62,701    39.2   39.0    7,576   13.7       23,890    43.4


1/ Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements.  If 
employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal 
net replacements.

Note:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.

Table 5.  Civilian labor force 16 years and older by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1988, 1998, and projected 2008
[Numbers in thousands]
                                        Level               Change            Percent change    Percent distribution
      Group                     1988     1998     2008  1988-98 1998-2008  1988-98   1998-2008   1988   1998   2008
                              
Total                         121,669  137,673  154,576  16,004   16,903    13.2       12.3     100.0  100.0  100.0 
                              
Men                            66,927   73,959   81,132   7,032    7,173    10.5        9.7      55.0   53.7   52.5 
Women                          54,742   63,714   73,444   8,972    9,729    16.4       15.3      45.0   46.3   47.5 
                               
Age 16 to 24                   22,536   21,894   25,210    -642    3,316    -2.8       15.1      18.5   15.9   16.3 
Age 25 to 54                   84,041   98,718  104,133  14,677    5,415    17.5        5.5      69.1   71.7   67.4 
Age 55 and older               15,092   17,062   25,233   1,970    8,171    13.1       47.9      12.4   12.4   16.3 
                              
White                         104,756  115,415  126,665  10,659   11,251    10.2        9.7      86.1   83.8   81.9 
Black                          13,205   15,982   19,101   2,777    3,119    21.0       19.5      10.9   11.6   12.4 
Asian and other 1/              3,708    6,278    8,809   2,570    2,531    69.3       40.3       3.0    4.6    5.7
Hispanic origin 2/              8,982   14,317   19,585   5,335    5,268    59.4       36.8       7.4   10.4   12.7 
Other than Hispanic origin 2/ 112,687  123,356  134,991  10,669   11,635     9.5        9.4      92.6   89.6   87.3 
   White non-Hispanic 2/       96,141  101,767  109,216   5,626    7,449     5.9        7.3      79.0   73.9   70.7 

1/ The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. 
    The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made 
    directly, not by subtraction.
2/ Data by Hispanic origin are not available before 1980.