U.S. Department of Labor U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Issues in Labor St atistics

BLS

Sizing up the 2007–09 

recession: comparing two key

labor market indicators with

earlier downturns

Summary 10-11 / December 2010

The job market weakened dramatically during the 

recent recession.1

 Two of the most commonly used 

gauges of labor market performance are the unemployment rate (the proportion of the labor force that 

is unemployed) and the employment-population ratio 

(the proportion of the civilian noninstitutional population that is employed).2

 Graphically comparing the 

changes in these measures across past downturns 

highlights the severity of the recent recession in the 

labor market. The unemployment rate increased 

more sharply and the employment-population ratio 

decreased more precipitously during the 2007-09 

recession than in any of the other post WWII recessions. In the first 17 months after the cyclical trough in 

June 2009, both measures have been relatively slow 

to recover. (See charts 1 and 2.) The deep recessions that occurred in the early 1980s and the mid1970s may provide better periods for comparison with 

the recent recession in terms of length and magnitude 

than the relatively mild recessions of 2001 and 1990–

91; however, the latter two recessions may provide 

better insights into the nature of recent post-recession 

recoveries.3 

The unemployment rate rose significantly in each of 

the last five recessions, but the most recent recession 

stands out as having a particularly sharp increase in 

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Percentage point 

Month

Chart 1. Change in the unemployment rate for persons age 16 and older, by number of 

months from start of recession 

1990-91

2001

Current period

1974-75

1981-82

2007-09 recession (18 months)

1974-75 and 1981-82 recessions

(16 months)

1990 and 2001

recessions

(8 months)

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

Chart 1. Change in the unemployment rate for persons age 16 and older, by number of

months from start of recession

Percentage point

Month

 NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
2

Issues in Labor Statistics December 2010

Sizing up the 2007–09 recession: comparing two key labor

market indicators with earlier downturns

the rate. At the trough of the recent recession in June 

2009, the unemployment rate was 9.5 percent, 4.5 

percentage points higher than at the start of the recession. The rate reached 10.1 percent in October 

2009, 4 months after the trough, before declining at 

the start of 2010. By November 2010, the unemployment rate had not shown much net improvement, 

standing at 9.8 percent. The largest increase in the 

unemployment rate in the 1981–82 recession was 3.6 

percentage points (to 10.8 percent); for the 1974–75 

recession, 4.2 percentage points (to 9.0 percent). 

Jobless rate increases in the 2001 and 1990–91 

recessions were of much smaller magnitudes. (See 

table 1 and chart 1.) 

The 2007–09 recession, the deep recessions in 

the early 1980s and the mid 1970s, and the less severe recessions of 2001 and 1990–91, appear to follow similar trends early on in each downturn. (See 

chart 1.) For the first 8 months of all five recessions, 

the unemployment rate followed a similar upward 

trend, increasing by about 1 percentage point. During 

the 2007–09 recession and the two long recessions 

of the 1970s and 1980s, the unemployment rate increased by an additional 3 percentage points or so 

during the next 8 months of the downturn. However, 

after 16 months, the similarity disappears as the unemployment rate in the 2007-09 recession continued 

to trend upward for several months. By contrast, once 

the 1981–82 and 1974–75 recessions ended, the unemployment rate peaked shortly thereafter and then 

began to trend down. The unemployment rate at the 

start of the 1981–82 recession was 7.2 percent; it de-

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Percentage point

Month

Chart 2. Change in employment-population ratio for persons age 16 and older, by number of 

months from start of recession 

1990-91

2001

Current period

1974-75

1981-82

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

2007-09 recession (18 months)

1974-75 and 1981-82 recessions

(16 months)

1990 and 2001

recessions

(8 months)

Chart 2. Change in employment-population ratio for persons age 16 and older, by number of

months from start of recession

Percentage point

Month

 NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).
3

Issues in Labor Statistics December 2010

Sizing up the 2007–09 recession: comparing two key labor

market indicators with earlier downturns

Table 1. Change in unemployment rate from start of recession to post-recession peak, by sex, 

selected recessions

Seasonally adjusted

Recession period 

and sex1

Length of 

recession 

(in 

months)

Number

of 

months 

from 

start of 

recession 

to series 

peak

Unemployment 

rate at 

start of 

recession

Unemployment 

rate at 

end of 

recession

Month of peak 

unemployment rate

Peak 

unemployment 

rate

Change 

in unemployment 

rate from 

start to 

peak

Total

Recession period

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 18 4.8 8.6 May. 1975 9.0 4.2

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 17 7.2 10.8 Dec. 1982 10.8 3.6

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 23 5.5 6.8 Jun. 1992 7.8 2.3

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 27 4.3 5.5 Jun. 2003 6.3 2.0

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 22 5.0 9.5 Oct. 2009 10.1 5.1

Men

Recession period1

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 18 4.1 7.9 May. 1975 8.4 4.3

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 17 6.9 11.1 Dec. 1982 11.2 4.3

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 23 5.6 7.2 Jun. 1992 8.3 2.7

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 27 4.3 5.7 Jun. 2003 6.7 2.4

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 22 5.1 10.6 Oct. 2009 11.4 6.3

Women

Recession period1

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 18 6.0 9.6 May. 1975 9.8 3.8

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 17 7.7 10.2 Dec. 1982 10.4 2.7

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 24 5.4 6.3 Jul. 2001 7.3 1.9

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 27 4.2 5.4 Jun. 2003 5.9 1.7

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 29 4.9 8.3 May. 2010 8.8 3.9

1

 The dates and length of recessions are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United States. 

clined to that pre-recession level 19 months after the 

recession ended. The recovery after the 1974–75 recession was somewhat different. Although the unemployment rate declined by about 3 percentage points 

from its peak by the late 1970s, an unemployment 

rate equal to that at the start of the recession—4.8 

percent—was not achieved before the next recession 

began.

In the milder 2001 and 1990–91 recessions—

which each lasted 8 months—the unemployment rate 

continued to rise for a year or more after the recessions ended. For several years after the 1990–91 and 

2001 recessions, the rate remained between 1 and 2 

percentage points higher than when the recessions 

began. In terms of recovery, an unemployment rate 

equal to that at the beginning of the 1990–91 recession was not reached until December 1994. In the 

recovery period following the 2001 recession, the job-
4

Issues in Labor Statistics December 2010

Sizing up the 2007–09 recession: comparing two key labor

market indicators with earlier downturns

less rate had not declined to the pre-recession level 

before the 2007–09 recession began. 

The employment-population ratio is another useful measure for evaluating labor market conditions, 

as it provides a somewhat different perspective than 

the unemployment rate. The labor force—the denominator used in the calculation of the unemployment rate—may expand or contract in response to 

changes in the pace of economic activity. In contrast, 

the civilian noninstitutional population, the denominator for the employment population ratio, tends to 

Table 2. Change in employment-population ratio from start of the recession to post-recession 

trough, by sex, selected recessions

Seasonally adjusted

Recession period 

and sex1

Length 

of recession (in 

months)

Number 

of months 

from 

start of 

recession 

to series 

trough

Employmentpopulation ratio 

at start 

of recession

Employmentpopulation ratio 

at end of 

Recession

Month of employmentpopulation ratio trough

Trough 

of 

employmentpopulation ratio

Change in 

employment-population 

ratio from 

start to 

trough

Total

 Recession period

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 19 58.2 56.0 Jun. 1975 55.8 –2.4

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 20 59.1 57.3 Mar. 1983 57.1 –2.0

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 17 62.8 61.8 Dec. 1991 61.2 –1.6

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 30 64.3 63.0 Sep. 2003 62.0 –2.3

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 24 62.7 59.4 Dec. 2009 58.2 –4.5

Men

Recession period1

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 19 75.8 71.9 Jun. 1975 71.3 –4.5

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 20 71.5 68.2 Mar. 1983 67.8 –3.7

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 19 72.1 70.6 Feb. 1992 69.6 –2.5

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 29 71.4 70.0 Aug. 2003 68.6 –2.8

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 24 69.3 64.6 Dec. 2009 63.2 –6.1

Women

Recession period1

Nov. 1973–Mar. 1975 16 16 42.6 41.7 Mar. 1975 41.7 –0.9

July 1981–Nov. 1982 16 22 48.1 47.5 May. 1982 47.5 –0.6

July 1990–Mar. 1991 8 17 54.3 53.7 Dec. 1991 53.5 –0.8

Mar. 2001–Nov. 2001 8 34 57.7 56.6 Jan. 2003 55.7 –2.0

Dec. 2007–June 2009 18 31 56.5 54.5 Oct. 2010 53.3 –3.2

1

 The dates and length of recessions are determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United States

grow regardless of economic conditions.4 The employment-population ratio typically decreases during 

recessions and for the 2007–09 recession, the decline was especially severe. At the start of the recession in December 2007, the employment-population 

ratio was 62.7 percent. When the recession ended 

in June 2009, the ratio was 59.4 percent, down by 

3.3 percentage points. The employment-population 

ratio continued to decline for the second half of 2009, 

and had fallen by 4.5 percentage points by December 

2009. The ratio then rose slightly in the first half of 
5

Issues in Labor Statistics December 2010

Sizing up the 2007–09 recession: comparing two key labor

market indicators with earlier downturns

2010, but had fallen back to 58.2 percent by November 2010. (See table 2 and chart 2.)

The decline in the employment-population ratio during and after the recent downturn was much 

larger than that of any of the other four recessions 

covered in this analysis. For the 1981–82 recession, 

the deepest decline in the employment-population 

ratios was 2.0 percentage points and for the 1974–

75 recession, it was 2.4 percentage points. Shortly 

after the 1981–82 and 1974–75 recessions ended, 

the employment-population ratio began to trend up, 

more slowly after the 1974–75 recession, and more 

quickly after the 1981–82 downturn. For the 1981–82 

recession, the employment-population ratio reached 

its pre-recession level 15 months after the recession ended. After the 1974–75 recession, the ratio 

increased, but did not reach its pre-recession level 

until late 1977, more than 2 years after the business 

cycle trough. The reductions in the employment-population ratio for the 2001 and 1990-91 recessions, 

at 2.3 and 1.6 percentage points, respectively, were 

about in line with the deepest declines for the 1970 

and 1980 recessions. The periods that followed the 

2001 and 1990–91 recessions were not, however, 

particularly strong recoveries in the labor market. After the 1990–91 recession, the ratio did not return to 

its pre-recession level until late 1994. As for the 2001 

recession, the employment-population ratio never returned to the rate it had reached prior to the recession. (See chart 2.) 

During the 2007–09 recession, men accounted for 

the majority of the employment loss and experienced 

a greater percentage point decrease in their employment-population ratio than did women. This pattern is 

similar for past recessions. However, the demographics of the labor market have changed considerably 

since the 1970s and 1980s. During the 1970s, 1980s, 

and 1990s, the labor market experienced a large influx of women and the employment-population ratio 

of women increased significantly, peaking in April 

2000 at 58.0 percent. As table 2 shows, declines in 

the overall employment-population ratio during the 

1990–91, 1981–82, and the 1974–75 recessions 

were not fully shared by women. The drop in the 

employment-population ratio for women during these 

three recessions did not reach 1 percentage point. 

In contrast, for the 2001 and 2007–09 recessions, 

the employment-population ratio for women declined 

by 2.0 and 3.2 percentage points, respectively, and 

these decreases were more comparable with the 

declines for men than had been the case in earlier 

downturns.5

 (See table 2 and chart 3.)

In summary, the December 2007 to June 2009 

recession was characterized by a larger increase in 

the unemployment rate and a sharper decline in the 

employment-population ratio than any of the other 

post-WWII recessions. There was a much sharper 

increase in the unemployment rate during the deep 

recessions of 1974–75, 1981–82 and 2007–09 than 

in the milder recessions. The 1990–91, 2001, and 

2007–09 recessions, however, were characterized 

by elevated rates of unemployment for long after the 

recessions ended, while the unemployment rate declined coincident with or shortly after the troughs of 

the 1981–82 and 1974–75 recessions. The largest 

declines in the employment-population ratio for the 

four prior recessions covered in this analysis were 

about half of the decline for the 2007–09 recession. 
6

Notes

1 The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is generally recognized as the official arbiter of recessions in the United 

States. The NBER has determined June 2009 as the trough of 

the recession that began in December 2007—the business cycle 

peak. For additional information on the NBER business cycle 

chronology, see http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

on the Internet. For this analysis, the NBER designated peaks 

and troughs are used, rather than the specific series highs and 

lows from the Current Population Survey. 2

 Both the unemployment rate and the employment-to-population ratio are calculated using Current Population Survey (CPS) 

data. 3

 The recession that began in December 2007 and ended in 

June 2009 had lasted 18 months, making it be the longest postWWII recession. Both the 2001 and 1990–91 recessions lasted 

8 months, and the 1981–82 and 1974–75 recessions each lasted 

16 months. 4

 For a discussion of the employment population ratio as a cyclical indication, see Julius Shiskin, “Employment and unemployment: the doughnut or the hole?” Monthly Labor Review, February 

1976, pp. 3–10. 5

 For additional information on trends in labor force participation, see Abraham Mosisa and Steven Hipple, “Trends in Labor 

Force Participation in the United States,” Monthly Labor Review, 

October 2006, pp. 35–57, on the Internet at www.bls.gov/opub/

mlr/2006/10/art3full.pdf. 

n

This Issues paper was prepared by James M. 

Borbely, an economist in the Division of Labor Force 

Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment 

Statistics. Email: CPSInfo@bls.gov; Telephone: (202) 

691-6378. 

Information in this summary will be made available to sensory-impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: (202) 691-5200. Federal Relay Service: 

1-800-877-8399. This report is in the public domain 

and may be reproduced without permission.

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Percentage point

Month

Chart 3. Change in employment-population ratio for women age 16 and older, by number of 

months from start of recession 

1990-91

2001

Current period

1974-75

1981-82

NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). 

2007-09 recession (18 months)

1974-75 and 1981-82 recessions

(16 months)

1990 and 2001

recessions

(8 months)

Chart 3. Change in employment-population ratio for women age 16 and older, by number of

months from start of recession

Percentage point

Month

 NOTE: Shaded areas represent recessions as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER).

Issues in Labor Statistics December 2010

Sizing up the 2007–09 recession: comparing two key labor

market indicators with earlier downturns