34 Monthly Labor Review July 1998

Persons Who Want a Job Persons Who Want a Job

Although labor economists tend to focus

on the activities and characteristics of

persons in the labor force, there has been

continued, if somewhat less visible, interest in

the possible links to the job market of persons

outside the labor force who want work but are

not currently seeking a job. Data from the Current Population Survey (CPS) show that an average of 4.9 million nonparticipants reported that

they wanted a job in 1997, representing about 7.4

percent of all persons outside the labor force.

Persons making up this group—particularly “discouraged workers”—are of interest to labor market analysts and policymakers because they, like

the unemployed, represent unused human resources in our economy. Moreover, information

on the size, profile, and extent of subsequent labor force attachment of these nonparticipants

who want a job is important to understand the

nature of the total labor supply and to provide a

complete measure of the slack or tightness of the

labor market.

This article discusses the development of notin-the-labor-force concepts used in the CPS, illustrating how the definitions have changed over

time to reflect evolving notions about persons

outside the labor force and their relationship to

the labor force. Using classifications of nonparticipants based on definitions that were implemented as part of the 1994 redesign of the CPS,

this article also examines the extent to which

persons who had been outside the labor force and

indicated that they wanted a job in 1994 became

attached to the labor force a year later. The new

Monica D. Castillo is an

economist formerly

with the Office of

Employment and

Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of

Labor Statistics.

Persons enter or leave the labor force in response

to a myriad of changing personal or economic conditions;

their decisions often do not seem to be closely linked

to their stated desire or availability for work a year earlier

Persons outside the labor

force who want a job

Monica D. Castillo measures were developed to more accurately and

objectively identify those persons who might be

considered to be most closely linked to the labor

force as determined by factors such as their desire to work, availability for work, and recent job

search activity. In addition, the analysis takes a

look at whether specific groups of nonparticipants—particularly those defined as “discouraged workers”—in fact show a greater attachment to the labor force than had been shown under the prior definitions. Also considered is the

degree to which subsequent labor force participation differs among the various subcategories

of persons outside the labor force who said they

wanted to work, and how the experience of such

persons compares with that of persons who had

been unemployed. In the concluding sections of

the article, the influence of certain demographic,

work history, and intention-to-work characteristics is studied to determine the extent to which

these factors are predictors of subsequent labor

market activity.

Not-in-the-labor-force concepts

Labor economists first became interested in persons outside the labor force who wanted a job as

a potential source of labor in the post-World War

II period.1 During the Great Depression, the

economy had included a vast number of unemployed with few prospects of finding work.

Among the new post-war realities, revealed by

new data on the labor force, was the fact that

millions of people moved into and out of the la-
Monthly Labor Review July 1998 35

bor force each year not only for personal reasons but because

of changes in labor demand.

The first concepts and definitions to account for those persons outside the labor force who wanted a job were incorporated into the CPS in January 1967. These measures were introduced as a result of recommendations by the President’s

Committee to Appraise Employment and Unemployment Statistics (more commonly known as the Gordon Committee),

which, in 1962, recognized the need to collect more detailed

information in the CPS on so-called “discouraged workers”—

that is, persons outside the labor force who were not currently

looking for a job because they believed their job search would

be in vain. Some analysts referred to such persons as the “hidden unemployed.”

Data on such workers, based on a consistent set of definitions, were collected in the CPS from 1967 through 1993.2

Persons who were not in the labor force—that is, who were

not working at all during the survey reference week and who

had not looked for work during the prior 4-week period—

were asked if they wanted a job “now,” either full or part time.

Those with an affirmative answer were asked the reason they

were not seeking a job. Persons classified as “discouraged

workers” were those who responded that they did not think

they could find a job, either for a job market-related reason,

such as their belief that work was not available or that they

could not find any work, or for certain personal reasons, such

as a perception that they were too young or too old, that they

lacked education or training, or that they had some other personal handicap.3

Criticisms of the definition of discouraged workers later

surfaced, however, particularly during the 1970s. In 1979, the

National Commission on Employment and Unemployment

Statistics (also known as the Levitan Commission) formalized these criticisms, noting that the definition of discouraged

workers was (1) too subjective, because the measure was

based primarily on a stated “desire” for a job, without specifying the terms and conditions of work,4 and (2) too arbitrary,

because availability to take a job was inferred from responses

to the question on reasons for not currently looking for a job

rather than determined directly.5

The Levitan Commission recommended using a new measurement that would be based on clear evidence of prior job

search and current desire and availability for a job. Their recommendation was accepted by the Secretary of Labor 2

years later6 but could not be implemented at that time because there was no funding to test the impact of a changed

definition and survey questions on other measures, such as

the overall unemployment rate. An opportunity for testing

arose in the late 1980s as the Bureau of Labor Statistics, in

collaboration with the Bureau of the Census, began a major

program to modernize the CPS. An entirely new questionnaire

was developed and tested, including a new series of questions on the characteristics of persons not in the labor force.

Thus, the new definition of discouraged workers incorporated two changes. First, a question to determine whether a

person had searched for a job within the prior 12 months was

added. Second, a direct question on availability to take a job

was added that replaced the inferred measure of availability

used with the former definition. Under the new question design, individuals who are not searching for work but who want

a job and are available for work are asked the main reason

why they are not looking for work. (In the former scheme,

individuals could provide any number of reasons for not seeking work. A “nondiscouraged” reason took precedence over a

“discouraged” reason in the classification scheme.)

An additional not-in-the-labor-force concept was created

as part of the design of the new questions. It relates to persons

who are “marginally attached” to the labor force. This is a

broader concept than “discouraged workers” in that it includes

the requirements for job desire, availability, and job search in

the past year, but places no restrictions on the reasons for not

looking for work. Thus, persons who meet these conditions

and cite family responsibilities or transportation problems as

reasons for not conducting a job search, for example, would

be included among the marginally attached.

The newly defined discouraged workers are a subset of the

marginally attached group. Despite the additional job search

and availability requirements, the new definition of discouraged workers maintains the same reasons for not conducting

a job search as provided under the former definition, namely,

that such persons believe no jobs are available for them or

that there are none for which they could qualify. More specifically, such persons respond that they are not currently looking for work for one of the following reasons: they believe

there are no jobs available for them; they could not find work;

they lack necessary schooling, skills, or experience; or they

perceive some type of discrimination in the workplace. With

the implementation of the additional job search and availability requirements in 1994, the number of discouraged workers

fell by roughly half.

Within the marginally attached group, persons who give

reasons other than discouragement for not conducting a job

search—referred to as “other marginally attached” persons—

constitute almost three-fourths of the total group. Their reasons for not looking for a job include child care problems,

family responsibilities, going to school or training, ill health

or disability, transportation problems, or other reasons.

Past studies and theoretical concepts

Past studies of persons not in the labor force had focused on a

group referred to as the “hidden unemployed.” This group

was generally defined by researchers as those persons who

would like to work but are too discouraged over employment
36 Monthly Labor Review July 1998

Persons Who Want a Job

prospects to search for a job.7 It was assumed that many of

these hidden unemployed would be labor force participants in

a “full employment” economy, and thus represent a component of the current supply of labor. Other economists had expanded the concept of “hidden unemployed” to include not

only discouraged workers but also certain visibly underemployed persons—specifically those who are working part time

but would prefer full-time work.8

These studies of the hidden unemployed focused on estimating their numbers and composition, as well as examining

the cyclical sensitivity of officially measured discouraged

workers over the course of the business cycle.9 The findings

showed clearly that the number of discouraged workers is

quite sensitive to changes in labor demand, declining when

the economy expands and unemployment falls.

While hidden unemployment is a concept that relates to the

current supply of available labor, another concept, the “labor

reserve,” is somewhat broader and refers to the potential supply of labor.10 It encompasses those nonparticipants who are

most likely to join the labor force in the future under more

favorable economic and social conditions. Members of the

labor reserve may briefly test the labor market or begin a job

search when the economy improves. Moreover, inherent in

the concept of a labor reserve is the notion that personal attitudes and preferences may be as important a factor to potential labor force participation as low unemployment and high

wages. In theory, the labor reserve could include anyone outside the labor force who would enter under the right conditions, although some researchers have postulated that it consists primarily of those outside the labor force who say they

want jobs, with discouraged workers and persons with recent

work experience forming its core.

Given these conceptual distinctions between the hidden

unemployed and the labor reserve, one might expect that, all

else equal, labor force attachment among various groups classified as not in the labor force but wanting a job would differ

substantially. Specifically, discouraged workers might be expected to have a stronger labor force attachment than other

nonparticipants who want a job. Yet, evidence presented to

the Levitan Commission in 1979 indicated that discouraged

workers did not have a distinctive labor force attachment.11

The links of the discouraged (as formerly defined) to the labor market were weaker than might have been expected.

Objective of this study

The analysis in this study focuses primarily on the labor force

status of persons in 1995 who, as of a year earlier, had been

classified as outside the labor force but had indicated they

wanted a job. Questions to be addressed include whether the

newly defined discouraged workers show a stronger attachment to the labor force than other not-in-the-labor-force

groups or than discouraged workers as classified under the

former definition. Comparisons of subsequent labor force activity also are made between those not in the labor force who

want a job as well as the discouraged and persons who had

been unemployed in 1994. The comparison between the discouraged and the unemployed may indicate whether future

links to the job market among the so-called “hidden unemployed” were as strong as those for persons officially classified as unemployed.

The structure of the CPS allows for this type of longitudinal

analysis. Sample households are tracked in the same 4 months

for 2 consecutive years.12 For this reason, it is possible to

match year-apart reports from respondents. For this analysis,

reports on individuals outside the labor force in 1994 who had

indicated that they wanted a job were matched with the reported labor force status of the same persons a year later.13

That is, cases for each month in sample were matched to the

same consecutive months a year later.

The maximum number of potentially matchable households

is half the full sample. However, the sample universe for this

study, based on actual matches, was substantially less than

the potential universe. Some respondents did not provide data

a year later because they could not be contacted (they might

have moved) or because they did not respond at all to the survey or to the key survey questions on labor force classification. In addition, because the CPS sample was in the midst of

its decennial sample redesign, some households that normally

would have been in scope were no longer in the sample.14 For

these reasons, the distributions shown in the tables are based

on the weighted number of respondents who actually provided

data.

Characteristics of the target group

Before examining the subsequent labor force attachment of

persons outside the labor force in 1994 who said they wanted

a job, it is useful to understand the size and demographic characteristics of this group. In 1994, just under 10 percent of the

total number of persons classified as not in the labor force

indicated they wanted a job. Of the 6.2 million persons who

indicated they wanted a job in that year, only 1.8 million were

classified as marginally attached to the labor force.15 About

500,000 of this total were not looking for work because of

discouragement over job prospects. Compared to the number

of persons officially classified as unemployed—8.0 million

in 1994—the so-called “hidden unemployed,” at least as measured through the new discouraged worker concept, were a relatively small group.

As compared with their numbers in the population, blacks

and youth were highly overrepresented in the three nonparticipant groups, that is, those who wanted a job, the marginally attached, and discouraged workers. Men were more likely
Monthly Labor Review July 1998 37

to be classified as discouraged workers than were women,

but were slightly less likely than women to be classified in

the other two nonparticipant groups.

Labor market attachment

Analysis of the current data shows that, as in past studies,

persons who were not in the labor force but wanted a job in

1994 did not have a strong attachment to the labor force a

year later. Indeed, only 41 percent of nonparticipants who said

they wanted a job in 1994 were in the labor force in 1995.

(See table 1.) Moreover, a large majority of those who remained out of the labor force a year later indicated that they

no longer wanted a job. Such persons might have decided to

take on a full-time commitment such as school or child care

responsibilities, or perhaps have retired.

Of those who said they wanted a job, persons who were

classified as marginally attached to the labor force (that is,

they had searched for work in the prior year and were available to take a job but were not currently looking for work)

had a slightly stronger link to the job market than the overall

want-a-job group. Even among the marginally attached, however, only 48 percent were in the labor force a year later. Discouraged workers—the group who might be expected to show

future labor market activity—experienced slightly lower labor force attachment (45 percent in the labor force in 1995)

than other marginally attached workers (49 percent).

These low rates of labor force attachment for discouraged

workers might be interpreted several ways: that respondents

overstate their desire for work as a “socially acceptable” response, or that the barriers to employment for these persons

(perceived and real) are so great as to leave many discouraged for an extended period. Perhaps it is reasonable that the

“nondiscouraged” reasons for not looking for work, such as

transportation problems, school attendance, and child care

problems, are somewhat less intractable than are the reasons

that make the discouraged feel “unemployable.”

As anticipated, labor force attachment among discouraged

workers, although weak, was somewhat stronger than it had

been in the past under the old definition. However, comparisons with past studies are problematic because of definitional

and methodological differences, and, given the cyclical sensitivity of the number of discouraged workers, different periods of study within the business cycle. For example, two earlier studies that examined subsequent attachment to the labor

force among discouraged workers analyzed data for periods

relatively early during economic recovery cycles (1976–77

and 1982–83).16 On the other hand, this study looks at the

years 1994–95, a few years after the most recent recession

officially ended.

The data for 1995 show a substantial difference in the subsequent employment experience of nonparticipants who said

they wanted a job, as compared with persons who were officially classified as unemployed. While 53 percent of the unemployed were working a year later, less than a third of the

nonparticipants who had wanted a job managed to find one.

Moreover, nearly 1 in 5 unemployed was still searching for a

job, compared with only 1 in 10 nonparticipants who had expressed a desire to work. Discouraged workers, while showing a somewhat higher subsequent labor force participation

than the total want-a-job group, nonetheless had nowhere near

the strength of attachment demonstrated by the unemployed.

In 1995, 45 percent of persons classified as discouraged workers in 1994 were in the labor force, compared with 72 percent

of persons classified as unemployed in the prior year. Such

substantial differences suggest that merely indicating a desire

to work is not nearly as good a predictor of subsequent labor

force activity—particularly employment activity—as actively

searching for a job.

Attachment by demographic group

Men who reported that they wanted a job had a stronger subsequent labor force attachment than did their female counterparts. (See table 1.) Differences were particularly evident between discouraged men and women; their labor force participation rates were 49 and 38 percent, respectively, a year later.

Discouraged men were almost twice as likely as women to be

unemployed a year later, yet men and women were about

equally likely to be employed a year later.

Whites in each of the nonparticipant groups were slightly

more likely than their black counterparts to have entered the

labor force a year later. Consistent with their overall patterns

of labor market success, whites in these groups had a greater

likelihood of being employed in a year’s time, while blacks

generally were more likely to be looking for work a year later.

The greatest difference in subsequent labor force attachment

by race was found among discouraged workers; 47 percent of

whites were in the labor force a year later compared with 39

percent of blacks. Because reasons for discouragement include the perception of employer discrimination, this may be

a factor in weakening blacks’ links to the labor market vis-àvis those of whites.

Among persons classified as not in the labor force who

wanted a job, about half of all young persons (aged 16 to 24

years) showed some labor force activity a year later, while

persons aged 55 and older were least likely to have entered

the job market. (See table 2.) Most of these older persons who

remained outside the labor force a year later reported they

were no longer even interested in finding a job. The differences by age may reflect the greater willingness on the part of

youth to accept more readily available low-wage employment,

given their lower skill levels and relative lack of experience

with the job market.
38 Monthly Labor Review July 1998

Persons Who Want a Job

Persons not in the labor force who wanted a job and unemployed persons in 1994 by their labor force status in 1995,

Total

Not in the labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 3,934 100.0 41.3 30.8 10.5 58.6 16.5 5.2 1.6 3.6 11.3 42.2

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 1,106 100.0 47.5 30.8 16.7 52.5 17.9 9.3 2.9 6.4 8.5 34.6

Reason not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ......................... 300 100.0 44.7 27.4 17.3 55.4 19.1 11.6 7.4 4.2 7.5 36.2

Other reasons .................... 807 100.0 48.6 32.1 16.5 51.4 17.4 8.5 1.2 7.3 8.9 34.0

Did not search for work and

was not available ................ 2,828 100.0 38.9 30.8 8.1 61.0 15.9 3.6 1.0 2.5 12.3 45.1

Unemployed ............................ 4,660 100.0 72.5 53.1 19.4 27.6 8.6 4.1 1.3 2.8 4.5 18.9

Men

Not in the labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 1,556 100.0 45.2 32.2 13.0 54.8 16.9 6.3 2.3 4.0 10.6 37.9

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 521 100.0 51.0 31.5 19.5 49.1 18.2 10.5 3.7 6.9 7.7 30.9

Reason not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ......................... 180 100.0 48.9 27.8 21.1 51.0 18.8 12.3 8.3 4.0 6.6 32.2

Other reasons .................... 341 100.0 52.0 33.4 18.6 48.0 17.8 9.6 1.2 8.4 8.2 30.2

Did not search for work and

was not available ................ 1,035 100.0 42.5 32.6 9.9 57.6 16.2 4.2 1.5 2.5 12.2 41.4

Unemployed ............................ 2,488 100.0 78.0 55.4 22.6 22.0 7.9 4.0 1.6 2.4 3.9 14.1

Women

Not in the labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 2,378 100.0 38.8 29.9 8.9 61.2 16.2 4.5 1.1 3.4 11.7 45.0

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 585 100.0 44.5 30.2 14.3 55.5 17.6 8.2 2.2 6.1 9.3 37.9

Reason not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ......................... 120 100.0 38.0 26.6 11.4 61.9 19.6 10.6 6.1 4.6 9.0 42.3

Other reasons .................... 465 100.0 46.2 31.2 15.0 53.8 17.1 7.6 1.2 6.5 9.5 36.8

Did not search for work and

was not available ................ 1,793 100.0 36.9 29.8 7.1 63.0 15.7 3.3 .7 2.5 12.4 47.3

Unemployed ............................ 2,172 100.0 66.1 50.4 15.7 33.9 9.4 4.2 .9 3.3 5.2 24.5

White

Not in the labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 2,859 100.0 42.2 32.6 9.6 57.8 15.2 4.5 1.3 3.2 10.7 42.6

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 774 100.0 47.9 32.1 15.8 52.1 17.4 8.9 2.3 6.5 8.5 34.7

Reason not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ......................... 202 100.0 46.6 28.8 17.8 53.4 17.7 10.7 6.3 4.4 7.0 35.7

Other reasons .................... 571 100.0 48.4 33.3 15.1 51.6 17.2 8.2 .9 7.3 9.0 34.3

Did not search for work and

was not available ................ 2,085 100.0 40.0 32.7 7.3 60.0 14.4 2.9 .9 2.0 11.6 45.6

Unemployed ............................ 3,490 100.0 74.3 56.1 18.2 25.7 7.8 3.6 1.0 2.6 4.1 17.9

Black

Not in the labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 851 100.0 38.0 24.6 13.4 62.0 20.4 7.7 2.6 5.0 12.8 41.6

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 277 100.0 45.6 26.5 19.1 54.4 19.8 10.5 4.4 6.1 9.2 34.6

Reason not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ......................... 82 100.0 38.7 23.1 15.6 61.3 23.9 14.8 11.1 3.8 9.1 37.4

Other reasons .................... 195 100.0 48.5 27.9 20.6 51.5 18.1 8.7 1.6 7.1 9.4 33.5

Did not search for work and

was not available ................ 574 100.0 34.3 23.7 10.6 65.7 20.7 6.3 1.7 4.5 14.6 44.9

Unemployed ............................ 931 100.0 65.4 41.7 23.7 34.6 11.8 5.9 2.2 3.7 5.9 22.8

Searched and was

available for work

Wanted a job

NOTE: Data are derived from the Current Population Survey and represent

weighted averages of matched sample households that were in the survey in

both 1994 and 1995. Thus, these data differ from the official published averages for 1994 and 1995, which are based on the full sample of households.

Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Table 1.

Status in 1994,

by sex and race

Total

In the labor force Not in the labor force

Total

Total

(thousands) Did not

want

a job

Did not

search for

work or

was not

available Discouraged

over job

prospects

Reason for not

 looking for work:

Other

reasons

by sex, and race

Percent

Total Employed Unemployed Total

Status in 1995
Monthly Labor Review July 1998 39

Persons not in the labor force who wanted a job and unemployed persons in 1994 by their labor force status in 1995,

Searched and was

available for work

NOTE: Data are derived from the Current Population Survey and represent

weighted averages of matched sample households that were in the survey in

both 1994 and 1995. Thus, these data differ from the official published averages for 1994 and 1995, which are based on the full sample of households.

Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding.

Table 2.

Status in 1994,

by sex and race

Total

In the labor force Not in the labor force

Employed Unemployed Total

Percent

Total

(thousands) Did not

want

a job

Did not

search for

work or

was not

available Discouraged

over job

prospects

Reason for not

 looking for work:

Other

reasons

by age, and sex

Not in labor force,

wanted a job

Total, 16 years and older ......... 3,934 100.0 41.3 30.8 10.5 58.6 16.5 5.2 1.6 3.6 11.3 42.2

16 to 24 years ....................... 1,276 100.0 50.1 38.5 11.6 49.9 16.4 4.6 .9 3.7 11.8 33.6

25 to 54 years ....................... 1,842 100.0 45.7 33.3 12.4 54.3 16.6 5.9 1.9 4.0 10.7 37.7

55 years and older ................ 816 100.0 18.0 13.3 4.7 82.0 16.3 4.6 1.9 2.7 11.7 65.7

Men, 16 years and older .......... 1,556 100.0 45.2 32.2 13.0 54.8 16.9 6.3 2.3 4.0 10.6 37.9

16 to 24 years ....................... 632 100.0 52.0 39.0 13.0 48.0 18.1 5.3 1.1 4.2 12.9 29.9

25 to 54 years ....................... 542 100.0 54.8 36.9 17.9 45.2 16.0 8.2 3.8 4.4 7.8 29.1

55 years and older ................ 381 100.0 20.4 14.3 6.1 79.6 16.0 5.1 2.1 3.1 10.9 63.5

Women, 16 years and older .... 2,378 100.0 38.8 29.9 8.9 61.2 16.2 4.5 1.1 3.4 11.7 45.0

16 to 24 years ....................... 644 100.0 48.2 38.0 10.2 51.8 14.7 3.9 .8 3.1 10.7 37.2

25 to 54 years ....................... 1,299 100.0 41.8 31.8 10.0 58.1 16.8 4.9 1.0 3.9 11.9 41.3

55 years and older ................ 434 100.0 15.8 12.4 3.4 84.2 16.6 4.2 1.7 2.4 12.5 67.6

Searched and was

available for work

Total, 16 years and older ......... 1,106 100.0 47.5 30.8 16.7 52.5 17.9 9.3 2.9 6.4 8.5 34.6

16 to 24 years ....................... 356 100.0 52.5 35.3 17.2 47.5 16.3 7.8 1.5 6.3 8.5 31.2

25 to 54 years ....................... 570 100.0 50.7 32.0 18.7 49.4 17.7 9.5 3.0 6.5 8.2 31.7

55 years and older ................ 180 100.0 27.9 18.3 9.6 72.1 21.6 11.8 5.2 6.6 9.8 50.5

Men, 16 years and older .......... 521 100.0 51.0 31.5 19.5 49.1 18.2 10.5 3.7 6.9 7.7 30.9

16 to 24 years ....................... 194 100.0 54.3 35.6 18.7 45.7 18.7 9.3 1.7 7.6 9.4 27.0

25 to 54 years ....................... 222 100.0 57.2 33.9 23.3 42.8 16.7 11.1 5.4 5.6 5.7 26.1

55 years and older ................ 105 100.0 31.6 18.7 12.9 68.5 20.3 11.5 3.5 8.0 8.9 48.2

Women, 16 years and older .... 585 100.0 44.5 30.2 14.3 55.5 17.6 8.2 2.2 6.1 9.3 37.9

16 to 24 years ....................... 162 100.0 50.4 34.9 15.5 49.6 13.4 6.0 1.4 4.6 7.4 36.2

25 to 54 years ....................... 348 100.0 46.5 30.8 15.7 53.5 18.3 8.4 1.4 7.1 9.9 35.3

55 years and older ................ 75 100.0 22.8 17.8 5.0 77.2 23.4 12.3 7.6 4.7 11.2 53.8

Unemployed

Total, 16 years and older ......... 4,660 100.0 72.5 53.1 19.4 27.6 8.6 4.1 1.3 2.8 4.5 18.9

16 to 24 years ....................... 1,432 100.0 70.7 52.5 18.2 29.3 8.7 3.6 .9 2.7 5.1 20.6

25 to 54 years ....................... 2,772 100.0 76.3 56.0 20.3 23.6 8.0 4.1 1.3 2.8 4.0 15.6

55 years and older ................ 455 100.0 54.1 36.8 17.3 45.9 12.0 6.0 2.5 3.5 6.0 33.9

Men, 16 years and older .......... 2,488 100.0 78.0 55.4 22.6 22.0 7.9 4.0 1.6 2.4 3.9 14.1

16 to 24 years ....................... 816 100.0 74.9 54.0 20.9 25.1 8.5 3.9 1.2 2.7 4.6 16.6

25 to 54 years ....................... 1,419 100.0 83.7 59.8 23.9 16.3 6.8 3.7 1.6 2.1 3.1 9.5

55 years and older ................ 253 100.0 55.9 35.3 20.6 44.1 12.4 6.3 2.7 3.6 6.0 31.7

Women, 16 years and older .... 2,172 100.0 66.1 50.4 15.7 33.9 9.4 4.2 .9 3.3 5.2 24.5

16 to 24 years ....................... 616 100.0 65.2 50.5 14.7 34.8 9.0 3.2 .5 2.7 5.8 25.9

25 to 54 years ....................... 1,353 100.0 68.6 52.1 16.5 31.3 9.3 4.4 .9 3.6 4.9 22.0

55 years and older ................ 202 100.0 51.9 38.8 13.1 48.1 11.6 5.7 2.2 3.4 5.9 36.5

Wanted a job

Total

Total

Status in 1985
40 Monthly Labor Review July 1998

Persons Who Want a Job

Reason for not looking for work

The slightly lower subsequent attachment observed among

discouraged persons relative to other marginally attached persons reflected different patterns in subsequent employment

and unemployment. Nearly a third of other marginally attached persons had become employed a year later, whereas

only 27 percent of discouraged workers had done so. Nonetheless, both types of marginally attached workers were

equally likely to be looking for work in a year’s time.

Among discouraged workers, those who were no longer

looking because of factors most allied with the jobseeking

process—that is, they had stopped looking for work because

they could not find work, believed no work was available for

them, or lacked schooling or training—had the greatest attachment to the labor force a year later. Those who cited discrimination—both age and other types of discrimination—

were least likely to be labor force participants. These findings

suggest that persons who are discouraged due to concrete labor market difficulties (shortage of work or mismatch of skills

Persons not in the labor force who wanted a job and unemployed jobseekers in 1994 by their recent work

experience, jobsearch intentions, and labor force status in 1995

Searched and was

available for work

Table 3.

Status in 1994,

by sex and race

Total

In the labor force Not in the labor force

Employed Unemployed

Total

Percent

Total

(thousands) Did not

want

a job

Did not

search for

work or

was not

available Discouraged

over job

prospects

Reason for not

 looking for work:

Other

reasons

Last worked less than

12 months ago

Not in labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 1,135 100.0 60.8 47.6 13.2 39.2 15.4 4.3 0.6 3.6 11.2 23.8

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 297 100.0 60.6 42.5 18.1 39.5 13.8 5.8 .6 5.2 8.0 25.6

Reason for not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ....................... 68 100.0 58.1 37.3 20.8 41.9 7.9 3.1 2.7 .4 4.7 34.1

Other reasons ................... 229 100.0 61.2 44.0 17.2 38.7 15.6 6.6 – 6.6 9.0 23.1

Unemployed jobseekers .......... 2,494 100.0 77.8 62.5 15.3 22.2 7.4 3.3 .8 2.5 4.1 14.8

Did not work less than

12 months ago

Not in labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 1,976 100.0 38.4 26.3 12.1 61.6 17.6 5.8 1.7 4.1 11.8 44.0

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 682 100.0 44.8 25.8 19.0 55.2 19.3 11.3 3.8 7.4 8.0 35.9

Reason for not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ....................... 196 100.0 39.8 20.4 19.4 60.2 22.4 15.1 9.5 5.6 7.4 37.8

Other reasons ................... 486 100.0 46.8 28.0 18.8 53.1 18.0 9.7 1.5 8.2 8.2 35.2

Unemployed jobseekers .......... 1,505 100.0 64.5 40.5 24.0 35.5 12.2 5.6 2.1 3.5 6.6 23.3

Intended to seek work

Not in labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 2,637 100.0 48.7 35.4 13.3 51.3 16.8 5.7 1.5 4.1 11.2 34.6

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 914 100.0 49.9 30.9 19.0 50.1 18.3 9.9 3.1 6.9 8.3 31.8

Reason for not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ....................... 242 100.0 46.2 26.5 19.7 53.8 18.4 12.1 8.5 3.7 6.3 35.4

Other reasons ................... 671 100.0 51.3 32.5 18.8 48.8 18.2 9.1 1.1 8.0 9.1 30.6

Did not intend to seek work

Not in labor force, wanted

a job ....................................... 473 100.0 34.6 26.8 7.8 65.4 17.0 2.8 – 2.8 14.2 48.4

Searched and was available

for work .............................. 66 100.0 45.5 31.1 14.4 54.6 8.6 4.9 – 4.9 3.7 46.0

Reason for not looking for work:

Discouraged over job

prospects ....................... 22 100.0 (1

) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1) (1)

Other reasons ................... 43 100.0 55.4 44.0 11.4 44.6 2.0 2.0 – 2.0 – 42.6

Wanted a job

1Data not shown where base is less than 35,000.

NOTE: Data are derived from the Current Population Survey and represent

weighted averages of matched sample households that were in the survey in

both 1994 and 1995. Thus, these data differ from the official published averages for 1994 and 1995, which are based on the full sample of households.

Detail may not sum to totals due to rounding. Dash represents zero.

Total Total

Status in 1995
Monthly Labor Review July 1998 41

demanded in the workplace) have stronger ties to the labor

force than those who perceive discrimination to be a barrier

to entering the labor market.

Turning to the other marginally attached group, most of the

subcategories showed a relatively higher proportion employed

a year later, as compared with discouraged workers. As might

be expected, persons who had been in school or training were

more likely to be employed (37 percent), while those with

child care problems were less likely to be working in a year’s

time (21 percent). Nonetheless, persons with child-care difficulties were most likely to be searching for a job the following year, indicating that they might have a more difficult time

finding a job that suits their schedules than other persons in

the other marginally attached group.

Other factors

One might expect that the recency of a person’s work experience and his or her intentions to seek work would be important factors in subsequent attachment to the labor force.17 As

might be expected, nonparticipants who had expressed some

desire for a job and had recent work experience in the first

survey year were more likely to be labor force participants 1

year later than were those who had more remote or no work

experience. Moreover, those having recent work experience

proved to have stronger ties to the labor force than those who

merely expressed their intention to seek work in the future.

Unemployed jobseekers with recent work experience predictably revealed the strongest attachment to the labor force—

78 percent continued to be labor force participants a year later.

Even unemployed jobseekers with more remote or no work

history showed a relatively strong attachment to the labor force.

True to their word, persons not in the labor force who indicated

they wanted a job, yet had no intention of looking for work,

showed relatively weak attachment to the labor force.

IN ADDITION TO REDUCING THE NUMBER of discouraged workers by half, the new measure of such workers, introduced in

1994, had the anticipated effect of showing somewhat stronger ties to the labor force than had been demonstrated under

the old definition (although the comparisons in this article

were made with studies that used different methodologies and

reference points in the business cycle). Nonetheless, the newly

defined discouraged workers, although showing somewhat

stronger ties to the labor force than under the prior definition,

still had relatively weak links to the labor force, particularly

as compared to the unemployed. These findings suggest that

persons classified as discouraged workers, even under the

new, more rigorous definition, find it difficult to translate their

desire for work into subsequent employment or even an active job search effort.

The findings presented in this article also raise the question of whether the theoretical concept of hidden unemployment—with its connotations of strong labor force participation in a full-employment economy—should primarily refer to discouraged workers or should encompass others outside the labor force. Other marginally attached

workers, that is, persons who cited reasons other than discouragement for giving up their job search, actually had a

somewhat greater attachment to the labor force than discouraged workers. But, as expected, a person’s desire to

work, by itself, proved to be a considerably weaker indicator of future labor force activity than wanting work and

conducting an active job search.

Footnotes

1 See Paul O. Flaim, “Discouraged workers and changes in unemployment,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1973, p. 8.

2 During this period, data were collected from only part of the CPS sample

and were available only quarterly.

3 Persons giving reasons other than or in addition to “discouraged” reasons were considered to be not available to take a job, and thus were not

classified as discouraged workers.

4 See Counting the Labor Force (Washington, National Commission on

Employment and Unemployment Statistics, 1979), pp. 45–46.

5 As an example, according to special tabulations of CPS data from the

fourth quarter of 1977, 340,000 persons were not counted as discouraged

because they were students or provided other reasons for not conducting a

job search even though they also cited reasons of discouragement. (See

Counting the Labor Force, p. 45.)

6 See Final Report of the Secretary of Labor on the Recommendations of

the National Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics (U.S.

Department of Labor, October 1981).

7 See Joseph L. Gastwirth, “Estimating the number of ‘hidden unemployed’,” Monthly Labor Review, March 1973, pp. 17–26; and Jacob

Mincer, “Determining who are the ‘hidden unemployed’,” Monthly Labor

Review, March 1973, pp. 27–30.

8 See Barbara Cottman Job, “How likely are individuals to enter the labor force?” Monthly Labor Review, September 1979, pp. 28–34.

9 See Gastwirth, “Estimating the number”; Mincer, “Determining who

are the ‘hidden unemployed’ ”; Flaim, “Discouraged workers and changes

in unemployment”; Carol M. Ondeck, “Discouraged workers’ link to jobless rate reaffirmed,” Monthly Labor Review, October 1978, pp. 40–42; and

Paul O. Flaim, “Discouraged workers: how strong are their links to the job

market?” Monthly Labor Review, August 1984, pp. 8–11.

10 See Christopher G. Gellner, “Enlarging the concept of a labor reserve,”

Monthly Labor Review, April 1975, pp. 20–28; and Job, “How likely are

individuals.”

11 See Counting the Labor Force, p. 45

12 The CPS follows a 4–8–4 rotation pattern in sampling households: a

selected household is interviewed for 4 consecutive months, is then out of

the sample for the following 8 months, and subsequently returns to the sample

in the same calendar months the following year.

13 Given that the data in this article focus on labor force status 1 year

after a person was classified as not in the labor force, it is acknowledged that

some labor force activity may have occurred in the intervening year but was
42 Monthly Labor Review July 1998

Persons Who Want a Job

no longer true at the year-later point in time. The findings may thus

underestimate the extent of subsequent labor force activity of some

nonparticipants.

14 The sample redesign of the CPS, implemented in 1994, was carried

out in order to maintain the efficiency of the sample design by updating the

sampling frame with 1990 census data. It had a negative impact on the

number of matched cases from 1994 to 1995. That is, some households

were removed from the sample while others were added in order to better

reflect the population, reducing the number of matched cases in this study.

For more details, see Richard A. McGuinness, “Redesign of the Sample for

the Current Population Survey,” Employment and Earnings, May 1994, pp.

7–10.

15 Estimates in this section on characteristics of persons not in the

labor force who wanted a job are derived from published annual averages

for 1994, which are based on the full sample of households.

16 For earlier empirical studies on this topic, see Flaim, “Discouraged

workers: how strong are their links to the job market?”; and Job, “How likely

are individuals.”

17 Certain questions in the CPS questionnaire are asked only of persons in

those households that are in the outgoing (fourth or eighth month) sample

rotation groups. Persons who are not in the labor force but want a job are

asked questions about recent work experience and job search intentions.

Unemployed jobseekers (that is, unemployed persons who are not on

temporary layoff from a job) are also asked questions about their recent work

experience.

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