News United States

Department 

of Labor

 

Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212 

 Internet Address: http://www.bls.gov/ces/

 Technical information: (202) 691-6555 USDL 04-2341

 Media contact: 691-5902

 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL

 IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED

 UNTIL 8:30 AM EST, WEDNESDAY,

 NOVEMBER 17, 2004

 

 REAL EARNINGS IN OCTOBER 2004

 Real average weekly earnings fell by 0.4 percent from September to October

after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today by the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.3 percent 

increase in average hourly earnings was more than offset by a 0.6 percent rise

in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

Average weekly hours were unchanged.

 Data on average weekly earnings are collected from the payroll reports of 

private nonfarm establishments. Earnings of both full-time and part-time 

workers holding production or nonsupervisory jobs are included. Real average 

weekly earnings are calculated by adjusting earnings in current dollars for 

changes in the CPI-W.

 Average weekly earnings rose by 2.9 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 

October 2003 to October 2004. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly 

earnings decreased by 0.4 percent. Before adjustment for seasonal change and 

inflation, average weekly earnings were $535.39 in October 2004, compared with 

$519.65 a year earlier.

 _____________________________

 Real Earnings for November 2004 will be released on Friday, December 17,

2004.
Table A. Composition of change in real earnings of production or

nonsupervisory workers1 on private nonfarm payrolls

Year

and

month

Percent change from preceding month, seasonally adjusted

Average

hourly

earnings

Average

weekly

hours

Average

weekly

earnings

The

Consumer

Price

Index2

Real

average

weekly

earnings

2003:

Oct. 0.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2 0.6

Nov. .2 .3 .5 -.3 .8

Dec. -.1 -.6 -.7 .2 -.8

2004:

Jan. .3 .6 .9 .6 .3

Feb. .2 .0 .2 .3 -.1

Mar. .2 .0 .2 .5 -.3

Apr. .3 -.3 (

3) .2 -.2

May .3 .3 .6 .7 -.1

June .2 -.6 -.4 .3 -.7

July .3 .6 .9 -.1 1.0

Aug. .3 -.3 (

3) .1 (3)

Sept. p.1 .3 .4 .2 .3

Oct. p.3 .0 .3 .6 -.4

1 See footnote 2, table 1. Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 

2 The deflator for the constant-dollar 3 Less than 0.05 percent.

series presented in this release is the p = preliminary.

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Table B. Percent change in earnings from the same month a year ago for

production or nonsupervisory workers1 on private nonfarm payrolls,

seasonally adjusted

Year

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

2003:

Oct. 2.2 0.4 1.9 (

3)

Nov. 2.2 .7 2.2 .6

Dec. 1.8 .1 1.2 -.5

2004:

Jan. 2.0 .2 2.0 .2

Feb. 1.6 .2 1.9 .5

Mar. 1.8 .4 1.8 .4

Apr. 2.2 .2 2.5 .5

May 2.1 -.8 2.4 -.6

June 2.1 -1.1 1.8 -1.3

July 2.0 -1.0 2.6 -.3

Aug. 2.3 -.2 2.6 (

3)

Sept. p 2.4 .0 3.0 .6

Oct. p 2.6 -.7 2.9 -.4

1 See footnote 2, table 1. Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 

2 The deflator for the constant-dollar 3 Less than 0.05 percent.

series presented in this release is the p = preliminary.

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage
Table 1. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls in current and constant

dollars1by industry and selected industry detail, not seasonally adjusted

Industry

Average hourly earnings Average weekly earnings

Oct.

2003

Sept.

2004p

Oct.

2004p

Percent

change:

Oct. 2003-

Oct. 2004

Oct.

2003

Sept.

2004p

Oct.

2004p

Percent

change:

Oct. 2003-

Oct. 2004

Total private: 2

Current dollars ......................... $15.42 $15.80 $15.84 2.7 $519.65 $530.88 $535.39 3.0

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 8.27 8.26 8.23 -.5 278.63 277.51 278.12 -.2

Goods-producing:

Current dollars ......................... 16.95 17.41 17.37 2.5 681.39 691.18 698.27 2.5

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 9.09 9.10 9.02 -.8 365.36 361.31 362.74 -.7

Natural resources and mining:

Current dollars ......................... 17.69 18.03 18.18 2.8 778.36 796.93 829.01 6.5

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 9.49 9.42 9.44 -.5 417.35 416.59 430.65 3.2

Construction:

Current dollars ......................... 19.13 19.42 19.46 1.7 744.16 730.19 755.05 1.5

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 10.26 10.15 10.11 -1.5 399.01 381.70 392.23 -1.7

Manufacturing:

Current dollars ......................... 15.81 16.37 16.25 2.8 643.47 664.62 661.38 2.8

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 8.48 8.56 8.44 -.5 345.02 347.42 343.57 -.4

Private service-providing:

Current dollars ......................... 15.01 15.37 15.42 2.7 484.82 496.45 499.61 3.1

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 8.05 8.03 8.01 -.5 259.96 259.51 259.54 -.2

Trade, transportation, and utilities:

Current dollars ......................... 14.38 14.79 14.76 2.6 483.17 496.94 494.46 2.3

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 7.71 7.73 7.67 -.5 259.07 259.77 256.86 -.9

Wholesale trade:

Current dollars ......................... 17.42 17.74 17.78 2.1 661.96 667.02 668.53 1.0

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 9.34 9.27 9.24 -1.1 354.94 348.68 347.29 -2.2

Retail trade:

Current dollars ......................... 11.91 12.23 12.16 2.1 366.83 377.91 373.31 1.8

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 6.39 6.39 6.32 -1.1 196.69 197.55 193.93 -1.4

Transportation and

 warehousing:

Current dollars ......................... 16.31 16.94 17.02 4.4 603.47 628.47 634.85 5.2

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 8.75 8.86 8.84 1.0 323.58 328.53 329.79 1.9

Utilities:

Current dollars ......................... 25.23 25.89 25.77 2.1 1,039.48 1,074.44 1,053.99 1.4

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 13.53 13.53 13.39 -1.0 557.36 561.65 547.53 -1.8

Information:

Current dollars ......................... 21.25 21.73 21.69 2.1 769.25 788.80 785.18 2.1

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 11.39 11.36 11.27 -1.1 412.47 412.34 407.89 -1.1

Financial activities:

Current dollars ......................... 17.25 17.60 17.72 2.7 608.93 619.52 627.29 3.0

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 9.25 9.20 9.21 -.4 326.50 323.85 325.86 -.2

Professional and business

 services:

Current dollars ......................... 17.13 17.43 17.55 2.5 580.71 592.62 600.21 3.4

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 9.18 9.11 9.12 -.7 311.37 309.79 311.80 .1

Education and health services:

Current dollars ......................... 15.73 16.24 16.23 3.2 506.51 526.18 527.48 4.1

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 8.43 8.49 8.43 .0 271.59 275.05 274.02 .9

Leisure and hospitality:

Current dollars ......................... 8.78 8.94 9.03 2.8 223.89 226.18 230.27 2.8

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 4.71 4.67 4.69 -.4 120.05 118.23 119.62 -.4

Other services:

Current dollars ......................... 13.78 13.98 13.97 1.4 431.31 431.98 434.47 .7

Constant (1982) dollars .......... 7.39 7.31 7.26 -1.8 231.27 225.81 225.70 -2.4

1

The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in this release and manufacturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory

is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical workers in the service-providing industries. These groups account for 

Workers (CPI-W). approximately four-fifths of the total employment on private nonfarm payrolls.

2 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining p

= preliminary.
Table 2. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1

 on private nonfarm

payrolls, seasonally adjusted

Year

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars 2

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

2003:

Oct. $15.43 $8.28 $519.99 $278.96

Nov. 15.46 8.32 522.55 281.09

Dec. 15.45 8.30 519.12 278.80

2004:

Jan. 15.49 8.27 523.56 279.68

Feb. 15.52 8.27 524.58 279.48

Mar. 15.55 8.24 525.59 278.53

Apr. 15.59 8.25 525.38 277.98

May 15.63 8.21 528.29 277.61

June 15.66 8.20 526.18 275.63

July 15.71 8.23 531.00 278.30

Aug. 15.76 8.26 531.11 278.21

Sept. p 15.78 8.25 533.36 278.95

Oct. p 15.83 8.22 535.05 277.95

1

 See footnote 2, table 1. Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and

2 The deflator for the constant-dollar series Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 

presented in this release is the Consumer p = preliminary.
Explanatory Note

The earnings series presented in this release 

are derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, a 

monthly establishment survey of employment, payroll, 

and hours. The deflator used for constant-dollar 

earnings series presented in this release is derived from 

the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and 

Clerical Workers (CPI-W).

For the purpose of the Real Earnings series, 

the CPI-W is converted from the base of 1982-84 that 

is used in the official, published series to a base of 

1982. Thus, the constant dollar average hourly and 

weekly earnings series are in 1982 dollars. To avoid 

confusion for users, the CPI data presented in Table A 

are the official, published CPI-W series. These data 

may differ slightly from those used in the real earnings 

calculations.

Seasonally adjusted data are used for

estimates of percent change from the same month a 

year ago for current and constant average hourly and 

weekly earnings that are presented in Table B of this 

release. Special techniques are applied to the CES 

hours and earnings data in the seasonal adjustment 

process to mitigate the effect of certain calendarrelated fluctuations. Thus, over-the-year changes of 

these hours and earnings are best measured using

seasonally adjusted series. A discussion of the

calendar-related fluctuations in the hours and earnings 

data and the special techniques to remove them is 

available in the June 1998 issue of Employment and 

Earnings or on the Internet (http://www.bls.gov/ces/). 

Earnings series from the monthly

establishment series are estimated arithmetic averages 

(means) of the hourly and weekly earnings of all 

production or nonsupervisory jobs in the private

nonfarm sector of the economy. Average hourly

earnings estimates are derived by dividing the

estimated industry payroll--for all production or

nonsupervisory jobs--by the corresponding paid hours. 

Average weekly hours estimates are similarly derived 

by dividing estimated aggregate hours by the

corresponding number of production or nonsupervisory 

jobs. Average weekly earnings estimates are derived 

by multiplying the average hourly earnings and the

average weekly hours estimates. This is equivalent to 

dividing the estimated payroll by the number of

production or nonsupervisory jobs. The weekly and 

hourly earnings estimates for aggregate industries,

such as the major industry division and the total private 

sector averages printed in this release, are derived by 

summing the corresponding payroll, hours, and

employment estimates of the component industries. 

As a result, each industry receives a "weight" in the 

published averages that corresponds to its current level 

of activity (employment or total hours). This further 

implies that fluctuations and varying trends in

employment in high-wage versus low-wage industries 

as well as wage rate changes influence the earnings 

averages.

There are several characteristics of the series 

presented in this release that limit their suitability for 

some types of economic analyses. (1) The denominator 

for the weekly earnings series is the number of private 

nonfarm production or nonsupervisory worker jobs. 

This number includes full-time and part-time jobs as 

well as the jobs held by multiple jobholders in the

private nonfarm sector. These factors tend to result in 

weekly earnings averages significantly lower than the 

corresponding numbers for full-time jobs. (2) Annual 

earnings averages can differ significantly from the

result obtained by multiplying average weekly

earnings times 52 weeks. The difference may be due 

to factors such as turnovers and layoffs. (3) The series 

are the average earnings of all production or

nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of

"typical" jobs or jobs held by "typical" workers. 

Specifically, there are no adjustments for occupational, 

age, or schooling variations or for household type or 

location. Many studies have established the

significance of these factors and that their impact 

varies over time.

Seasonally adjusted data (table 2) are

preferred by some users for analyzing general earnings 

trends in the economy since they eliminate the effect of 

changes that normally occur at the same time and in 

about the same magnitude each year and, therefore, 

reveal the underlying trends and cyclical movements. 

Changes in average earnings may be due to seasonal 

changes in the proportion of workers in high-wage and 

low-wage industries or occupations or to seasonal

changes in the amount of overtime work, and so on.

For more information, see Thomas Gavett,

"Measures of Change in Real Wages and Earnings," 

Monthly Labor Review, February 1972.

Information in this release will be made

available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD Message Referral 

Phone Number: 1-800-877-8339.