TEXT
Table 1.  Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1993 and 1994, and moderate alternative
Table 2.  Civilian labor force, 1982, 1993, and 1994, and projected 2005, and entrants and leavers,
Table 3.  Employment by major industry division, 1983, 1994, and projected to 2005
Table 4.  Employment by major occupational group, 1983, 1994, and projected 2005, moderate alternative projection
Table 5A.  The 10 industries with fastest projected job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
Table 5B. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
Table 5C.  The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
Table 6.  Projected change in employment by education and training category, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection

 
 
Technical Information:  (202) 606-5700         USDL:95-485
 
Media Contact:          (202) 606-5902         For release: 10 A.M. EST
                                               Friday, December 1, 1995
 
 
BLS RELEASES NEW 1994-2005 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
 
 
     New projections for the American work force from 1994 to 2005 were
released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor,
providing information on where future job growth is expected by industry and
occupation and what the demographic makeup of the work force pursuing those
jobs is likely to be.
 
     These projections to 2005 of economic growth, the labor force, and
employment by industry and occupation are widely used for studying long-range
economic and employment trends, planning education and training programs, and
developing career information.
 
     BLS develops three alternative sets of projections because of the
uncertainty inherent in the future.  Changes in the structure of the economy
and in the demand for goods and services for a low, a moderate, and a high
growth pattern for Gross Domestic Product are included.
 
     This release uses the moderate growth projection in which personal
consumption expenditures will continue to account for about two-thirds of GDP
and in which foreign trade is projected to continue to increase faster than
other demand components.
 
Labor force
 
     The future supply of workers, the labor force, is projected to increase by
16 million over the 1994-2005 period, from 131 million to 147 million.  This
represents an increase of 12 percent, less than the 16 percent increase over
the previous 11-year period, 1982-93.  (See table 1 and its note concerning
comparability of 1993 and 1994 labor force data.)
 
     39.3 million workers are expected to enter the labor force over the
     1994-2005 period, more than the 37 million that entered over the 1982-93
     period (table 2).
     23.3 million of the entrants will replace workers who leave the labor
     force because of death, retirement, and other reasons.
 
     16.0 million will reflect net labor force growth.
     The demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change
     because the population itself will change and because work force
     participation will change.
 
     White non-Hispanics, who accounted for 77 percent of the labor force in
     1994, are expected to account for two-thirds of the entrants into the work
     force over the 1994-2005 period; thus, their share of the labor force in
     2005 will decrease modestly.
 
     By 2005, the black non-Hispanic and the Hispanic labor forces will be
     nearly equal in size, as more Hispanics than blacks will enter the labor
     force over the 1994-2005 period.
 
     The women's labor force will grow more rapidly than the men's; the women's
     share of the labor force will increase from 46 to 48 percent.  Despite
     this, men will supply slightly over half of the labor force entrants over
     the 1994-2005 period.
 
     The labor force 55 years of age and older will grow faster than the
     younger labor force as the baby-boom generation (born 1946-64) continues
     to age.  The labor force 25 to 34 years of age is projected to decline by
     almost 4 million, reflecting the decrease in births in the late 1960s and
     early 1970s.
 
     The labor force participation rates of women are projected to increase,
     but at a more moderate rate than in the previous 11 years, particularly
     among younger women.  Men's labor force participation rates are projected
     to continue to decline across all age groups.
 
Employment
 
Industry Employment
 
     Over the 1994-2005 period, total employment is projected to increase by 14
     percent or by 17.7 million, from 127.0 million in 1994 to 144.7 million in
     2005.  This growth rate is much slower than during the previous 11-year
     period 1983-1994 when growth was 24 percent and the economy gained 24.6
     million additional jobs (table 3).
 
     Service-producing industries will account for virtually all of the job
     growth.   Only construction will add jobs in the goods-producing sector.
 
     Manufacturing's share of total jobs is expected to decline, as a decrease
     of 1.3 million manufacturing jobs is projected.  Manufacturing is expected
     to maintain its share of total output, as productivity in this sector is
     projected to increase.  Accounting for one of every seven jobs in 1994,
     manufacturing is expected to account for just less than one of every eight
     jobs in 2005.
 
     Health services, business services, and social services are expected to
account for almost one of every two jobs added to the economy during the
1994-2005 period.  Of the 10 fastest growing industries, nine belong to one of
these three industry groups (table 5a).
 
 
Occupational employment
 
     Professional specialty occupations are projected to increase the fastest
and to add the most jobs--over 5  million.  This group also had the fastest
rate of increase and the largest job growth in the 1983-94 period.  Service
workers are expected to add 4.6 million jobs.  These two groups--on opposite
ends of the educational attainment and earnings spectrum--are expected to
provide more than half of the total projected job growth
in 1994-2005 (table 4).
 
     Other groups that are projected to grow faster than the average are
executive, administrative, and managerial occupations; technicians and related
support occupations; and marketing and sales occupations.
 
     Administrative support occupations including clerical are projected to
grow much slower than the average and much slower than they have in the past,
reflecting the increasing impact of office automation.  The projected growth of
994,000 jobs for this group is significantly less than the 4.3 million job
growth during 1983-94.
 
     Precision production, craft, and repair occupations and operators,
     fabricators, and laborers are projected to grow much more slowly than the
     average due to continuing advances in technology, changes in production
     methods, and the overall decline in manufacturing employment.
 
     The 10 fastest growing occupations include workers at all levels of
     educational attainment; half are health-related occupations (table 5b).
 
     The 10 occupations adding the most jobs will account for more than
     one-fourth of total employment growth (table 5c).
 
Education and Training
 
     Employment will increase in occupations requiring various amounts of
education and training.  Growth rates over the 1994-2005 period will range from
5 percent for occupations generally requiring moderate term on-the-job training
to 29 percent for occupations requiring a master's degree.  All categories that
generally require an associate degree or more education are projected to grow
faster than the 14 percent average of all occupations.  In contrast, all other
categories are expected to grow less than 14 percent.  Occupations that
generally require moderate term (1 to 12 months) on the job training for a
worker to achieve average job performance are projected to grow the slowest,
reflecting the concentration of many production occupations in declining
manufacturing industries (table 6).
 
     More detailed information on the 1994-2005 projections appears in five
articles in the November 1995 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  A graphic
presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the
forthcoming Fall 1995 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.  Data on education and
training will be published in "Employment Outlook: 1994-2005, Job Quality and
Other Aspects of Projected Employment Growth," BLS Bulletin 2472.
 
     The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by
the U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.  The Review costs
$25 a year, single copies are $7.  The Quarterly costs $8 a year; single copies
are $2.75.  Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents.
 
     Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired
individuals upon request.  Voice phone:  202-606-7828, Telecommunications
Device for the Deaf (TDD) phone: 202-606-5897, TDD Message Referral Phone
Number: 1-800-326-2577.
 
Table 1.  Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1993 and 1994, and moderate alternative
projection to 2005
[Numbers in thousands]
                                             Level                Change            Percent change            Percent distribution
              Group             1982     1993     1994      2005   1982-93  1994-2005   1982-93  1994-2005   1982   1994   2005
 
   Total, 16 years and older  110,204  128,040  131,056   147,106   17,836   16,050      16.2      12.2     100.0  100.0  100.0
 
Men, 16 years and older        62,450   69,633   70,817   76,842     7,183    6,025      11.5       8.5      56.7   54.0   52.2
Women, 16 years and older      47,755   58,407   60,239   70,263    10,652   10,024      22.3      16.6      43.3   46.0   47.8
 
16 to 24                       24,608   20,383   21,612   23,984    -4,225    2,372     -17.2      11.0      22.3   16.5   16.3
25 to 54                       70,506   92,271   93,898  101,017    21,765    7,119      30.9       7.6      64.0   71.6   68.7
55 and older                   15,092   15,386   15,547   22,105       294    6,558       1.9      42.2      13.7   11.9   15.0
 
White, 16 years and older      96,143  109,359  111,082  122,867    13,216   11,785      13.7      10.6      87.2   84.8   83.5
Black, 16 years and older      11,331   13,943   14,502   16,619     2,612    2,116      23.1      14.6      10.3   11.1   11.3
Asian and other, 16 years
  and older/1                   2,729    4,742    5,474    7,632     2,013    2,158      73.8      39.4       2.5    4.2    5.2
 
Hispanic, 16 years and older    6,734   10,377   11,975   16,330     3,643    4,355      54.1      36.4       6.1    9.1   11.1
Other than Hispanic, 16 years
  and older                   103,470  117,663  119,081  130,775    14,193   11,694      13.7       9.8      93.9   90.9   88.9
White, non-Hispanic            89,630   99,499  100,462  108,345     9,869    7,883      11.0       7.8      81.3   76.7   73.7
___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
Note: Data for 1994 are not directly comparable with data for 1993 and 1982 because of the introduction of a major redesign of the
Current Population Survey questionaire and collection methodology and the introduction of 1990 census-based population controls,
adjusted for the estimated undercount.
/1 The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives.  The
historical data are derived by subtracting "black" from the "black and other" group; projections are made directly,
not by subtraction.
 
Table 2.  Civilian labor force, 1982, 1993, and 1994, and projected 2005, and entrants and leavers,
actual 1982-93 and projected 1994-2005
                     Labor     Entrants  Leavers    Labor force     Entrants    Leavers   Labor
                     force                                                                force
      Group           1982     1982-93   1982-93   1993    1994    1994-2005   1994-2005   2005
 
     Numbers
   [thousands]
     Total          110,215    37,309    19,485  128,039  131,051    39,343     23,289   147,106
Men                  62,460    19,275    12,104   69,632   70,814    19,720     13,691    76,842
Women                47,755    18,034     7,381   58,407   60,238    19,624      9,598    70,263
 
White, non-Hispanic  89,536    26,405    16,440   99,502  100,463    26,058     18,177   108,345
   Men               51,086    13,447    10,288   54,246   54,306    12,937     10,814    56,429
   Women             38,450    12,958     6,152   45,256   46,157    13,122      7,363    51,916
 
Black, non-Hispanic  11,230     4,952     1,905   14,277   14,304    4,871       2,783   16,392
   Men                5,744     2,403     1,079    7,068    6,981    2,314       1,512    7,783
   Women              5,486     2,549       826    7,209    7,323    2,557       1,271    8,609
 
Hispanic origin       6,734     4,437       794   10,377   11,974    6,085       1,729   16,330
   Men                4,148     2,654       545    6,257    7,210    3,321       1,039    9,492
   Women              2,586     1,784       250    4,120    4,764    2,765         690    6,838
 
Asian and other,
    non-Hispanic/1    2,714     1,515       345    3,883    4,310    2,329        600    6,039
   Men                1,481       772       192    2,061    2,317    1,148        326    3,139
   Women              1,233       743       153    1,822    1,994    1,180        274    2,900
 
     Share
   [percent]
     Total            100.0     100.0     100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0      100.0    100.0
Men                    56.7      51.7      62.1     54.4     54.0     50.1       58.8     52.2
Women                  43.3      48.3      37.9     45.6     46.0     49.9       41.2     47.8
 
White, non-Hispanic    81.2      70.8      84.4     77.7     76.7     66.2       78.0     73.7
   Men                 46.4      36.0      52.8     42.4     41.4     32.9       46.4     38.4
   Women               34.9      34.7      31.6     35.3     35.2     33.4       31.6     35.3
 
Black, non-Hispanic    10.2      13.3       9.8     11.2     10.9     12.4       12.0     11.1
   Men                  5.2       6.4       5.5      5.5      5.3      5.9        6.5      5.3
   Women                5.0       6.8       4.2      5.6      5.6      6.5        5.5      5.9
 
Hispanic origin         6.1       11.9      4.1      8.1      9.1     15.5        7.4     11.1
   Men                  3.8        7.1      2.8      4.9      5.5      8.4        4.5      6.5
   Women                2.3        4.8      1.3      3.2      3.6      7.0        3.0      4.6
 
Asian and other,
    non-Hispanic/1      2.5        4.1      1.8      3.0      3.3      5.9        2.6      4.1
   Men                  1.3        2.1      1.0      1.6      1.8      2.9        1.4      2.1
   Women                1.1        2.0       .8      1.4      1.5      3.0        1.2      2.0
___________________________________________________________________________________________________
Note: Data for 1994 are not directly comparable with data for 1993 and 1982 because of the
introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey questionaire and collection
methodology and the introduction of 1990 census-based population controls. Entrants and leavers are
calculated by comparing cohort labor force size at two points in time.  The components of this
table are mutually exclusive.
/1 The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians
and Alaska Natives.
 
Table 3.  Employment by major industry division, 1983, 1994, and projected to 2005
         Industry                                          Employment (in thousands)               Change
                                                1983     1994              2005            1983-94   1994-2005
                                                                  Low    Moderate   High             Low   Moderate   High
Nonfarm wage and salary /1                     89,734  113,340  125,631  130,185  135,729   23,605  12,291  16,846   22,390
  Goods producing                              23,328   23,914   21,860   22,930   24,475      587  -2,054    -985      561
    Mining                                        952      601      450      439      509     -351    -150    -162      -91
    Construction                                3,946    5,010    5,193    5,500    5,966    1,064     183     490      956
    Manufacturing                              18,430   18,304   16,218   16,991   18,000     -126  -2,086  -1,313     -304
      Durable                                  10,707   10,431    8,803    9,290   10,045     -275  -1,628  -1,141     -386
      Nondurable                                7,723    7,873    7,415    7,700    7,955      149    -458    -172       82
 
  Service producing                            66,407   89,425  103,771  107,256  111,254   23,019  14,345  17,830   21,829
    Transportation, communications, utilities   4,958    6,006    6,145    6,431    6,723    1,048     139     425      717
    Wholesale trade                             5,283    6,140    6,389    6,559    6,765      857     249     419      626
    Retail trade                               15,587   20,438   22,781   23,094   23,417    4,850   2,343   2,657    2,979
    Finance, insurance, and real estate         5,466    6,933    7,076    7,373    7,721    1,468     143     439      788
    Services /1                                19,242   30,792   42,072   42,810   43,678   11,550  11,280  12,018   12,886
    Government                                 15,870   19,117   19,307   20,990   22,951    3,247     190   1,873    3,834
 
Agriculture /2                                  3,508    3,623    3,431    3,399    3,361      115    -192    -224     -263
Private household wage and salary               1,247      966      818      800      779     -281    -149    -166     -187
Nonagricultural self-employed and
    unpaid family workers /3                    7,914    9,085   10,382   10,324   10,343    1,171  1,297    1,239    1,257
 
Total /4                                      102,403  127,014  140,261  144,708  150,212   24,611  13,247  17,694   23,198
 
                                      Percent distribution of wage and salary employment            Annual rate of change
                                                1983     1994              2005            1983-94   1994-2005
                                                                  Low    Moderate   High             Low   Moderate   High
Nonfarm wage and salary /1                      100.0   100.0     100.0    100.0   100.0       2.1      .9     1.3      1.7
  Goods producing                                26.0    21.1      17.4     17.6    18.0        .2     -.8     -.4       .2
    Mining                                        1.1      .5        .4       .3      .4      -4.1    -2.6    -2.8     -1.5
    Construction                                  4.4     4.4       4.1      4.2     4.4       2.2      .3      .9      1.6
    Manufacturing                                20.5    16.1      12.9     13.1    13.3       -.1    -1.1     -.7      -.2
      Durable                                    11.9     9.2       7.0      7.1     7.4       -.2    -1.5    -1.0      -.3
      Nondurable                                  8.6     6.9       5.9      5.9     5.9        .2     -.5     -.2       .1
 
  Service producing                              74.0    78.9      82.6     82.4    82.0       2.7     1.4     1.7      2.0
    Transportation, communications, utilities     5.5     5.3       4.9      4.9     5.0       1.8      .2      .6      1.0
    Wholesale trade                               5.9     5.4       5.1      5.0     5.0       1.4      .4      .6       .9
    Retail trade                                 17.4    18.0      18.1     17.7    17.3       2.5     1.0     1.1      1.2
    Finance, insurance, and real estate           6.1     6.1       5.6      5.7     5.7       2.2      .2      .6      1.0
    Services /1                                  21.4    27.2      33.5     32.9    32.2       4.4     2.9     3.0      3.2
    Government                                   17.7    16.9      15.4     16.1    16.9       1.7      .1      .9      1.7
 
Agriculture /2                                   --      --        --       --      --          .3     -.5     -.6      -.7
Private households                               --      --        --       --      --        -2.3    -1.5    -1.7     -1.9
Nonagricultural self-employed and
    unpaid family workers /3                     --      --        --       --      --         1.3     1.2     1.2      1.2
 
Total /4                                         --      --        --       --      --         2.0      .9     1.2      1.5
__________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
1/ Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99 (nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not directly comparable
with data published in Employment and Earnings
2/ Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
3/ Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).
4/ Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs,
whereas self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private household data are from the Current Population Survey
(household survey), which counts workers.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
 
Table 4.  Employment by major occupational group, 1983, 1994, and projected 2005, moderate alternative projection
[Numbers in thousands]
                                                                                       Employment Change
                                                           1983     1994     2005        1983-94   1994-2005
                                                                                             Percent          Percent
            Occupation                                    Number   Number   Number   Number   change  Number   change
 
     Total, all occupations                              102,404  127,014  144,708   24,610   24.0    17,694   13.9
Executive, administrative, and managerial occupations      9,591   12,903   15,071    3,312   34.5     2,168   16.8
Professional specialty occupations                        12,639   17,314   22,387    4,675   37.0     5,073   29.3
Technicians and related support occupations                3,409    4,439    5,316    1,030   30.2       876   19.7
Marketing and sales occupations                           10,497   13,990   16,502    3,493   33.3     2,512   18.0
Administrative support occupations, including clerical    18,874   23,178   24,172    4,304   22.8       994    4.3
Service occupations                                       15,577   20,239   24,832    4,662   29.9     4,593   22.7
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations    3,712    3,762    3,650       50    1.3      -112   -3.0
Precision production, craft, and repair occupations       12,731   14,047   14,880    1,316   10.3       833    5.9
Operators, fabricators, and laborers                      15,374   17,142   17,898    1,768   11.5       757    4.4
 
Table 5A.  The 10 industries with fastest projected job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
              Industry                                      Percent change
Health services, n.e.c.                                         84.1
Residential care                                                82.7
Computer and data processing services                           69.5
Individual and miscellaneous social services                    68.8
Miscellaneous business services                                 68.4
Child day care services                                         59.4
Personnel supply services                                       58.1
Services to buildings                                           58.0
Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing                      50.8
Management and public relations                                 46.5
 
 
Table 5B. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
[Numbers in thousands]
                                                       Employment       1994-2005
                                                                   Numerical  Percent
                   Occupation                         1994    2005   change    change
Personal and home care aides                           179     391    212       119
Home health aides                                      420     848    428       102
Systems analysts                                       483     928    445        92
Computer engineers                                     195     372    177        90
Physical and corrective therapy assistants and aides    78     142     64        83
Electronic pagination systems workers                   18      33     15        83
Occupational therapy assistants and aides               16      29     13        82
Physical therapists                                    102     183     81        80
Residential counselors                                 165     290    126        76
Human services workers                                 168     293    125        75
 
 
Table 5C.  The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
[Numbers in thousands]
                                                       Employment       1994-2005
                                                                   Numerical  Percent
                   Occupation                         1994    2005   change    change
Cashiers                                             3,005   3,567    562        19
Janitors and cleaners, including maids
   and housekeeping cleaners                         3,043   3,602    559        18
Salespersons, retail                                 3,842   4,374    532        14
Waiters and waitresses                               1,847   2,326    479        26
Registered nurses                                    1,906   2,379    473        25
General managers and top executives                  3,046   3,512    466        15
Systems analysts                                       483     928    445        92
Home health aides                                      420     848    428       102
Guards                                                 867   1,282    415        48
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants             1,265   1,652    387        31
 
Table 6.  Projected change in employment by education and training category, 1994-2005, moderate alternative projection
[Numbers in thousands]
               Education category                         1994              2005       Change, 1994-2005   Job openings due
                                                                                                           to growth and net
                                                                                                              replacement,
                                                     1994-2005
                                                     Number  Percent   Number  Percent  Number  Percent    Number    Percent
      Total                                         127,014   100.0   144,708   100.0   17,693   13.9      49,631     100.0
First professional degree                             1,702     1.3     2,076     1.4      374   22.0         657       1.3
Doctor's degree                                         976      .8     1,156      .8      180   18.4         467        .9
Master's degree                                       1,500     1.2     1,927     1.3      427   28.5         658       1.3
Work experience, plus a bachelor's or higher degree   8,191     6.5     9,494     6.6    1,303   15.9       3,062       6.2
Bachelor's degree                                    14,007    11.0    17,771    12.3    3,764   26.9       6,684      13.5
Associate degree                                      3,956     3.1     4,919     3.4      963   24.3       1,594       3.2
Post-secondary vocational training                    7,102     5.6     7,845     5.4      743   10.5       2,378       4.8
Work experience                                       9,994     7.9    11,325     7.8    1,331   13.3       3,554       7.2
Long-term on-the-job training                        13,672    10.8    14,901    10.3    1,229    9.0       4,754       9.6
Moderate-term on-the-job training                    16,219    12.8    17,083    11.8      864    5.3       5,670      11.4
Short-term on-the-job training                       49,695    39.1    56,208    38.8    6,513   13.1      20,152      40.6