TEXT

 
 
 
 
 
 
                                       FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.D.T.
                                       FRIDAY, OCTOBER 6, 1995
 
 
 
           ___________________________________________________________
           Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
           press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
           understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
           Eastern time.  ____________________________________________
 
                                   Statement of
 
                               Katharine G. Abraham
                                   Commissioner
                            Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
                                    before the
 
                             Joint Economic Committee
 
                              UNITED STATES CONGRESS
 
                                 October 6, 1995
 
 
 
           Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:
 
                I would like to thank you for this opportunity to
 
           comment on the employment and unemployment data released
 
           this morning.
 
                Nonfarm payroll employment grew by 121,000 in
 
           September, with gains in services and retail trade partially
 
           offset by a loss in manufacturing.  The unemployment rate
 
           was unchanged at 5.6 percent.
 
                Services had the largest employment increase, adding
 
           106,000 jobs.  More than half that gain was in business
 
           services, led by growth in its help supply component.  This
 
           industry rebounded in August and September following
 
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           5 months of weakness.  Health services continued its long-
 
           term growth trend.  The number of jobs in social services
 
           rose in September following very little growth during the
 
           summer.  Retail trade employment expanded by 48,000 in
 
           September, after seasonal adjustment.  Gains were
 
           widespread, with eating and drinking places and automotive
 
           dealers and service stations showing the biggest increases.
 
           Department stores also added jobs, but employment losses in
 
           apparel stores accelerated in September.  Wholesale trade
 
           employment was little changed for the second straight month,
 
           following 2 years of strong growth.
 
                Manufacturing employment fell by 32,000 in September.
 
           Factory job losses since March now total 200,000; over that
 
           period, only industrial machinery and electronic components
 
           have shown steady increases.  Employment was down over the
 
           month in automobile manufacturing, apparel, textiles, paper,
 
           and printing and publishing; there was a modest rebound in
 
           food processing.  The number of jobs in apparel factories
 
           has been declining since late 1991, but losses have
 
           accelerated recently, totaling 45,000 since April.  Losses
 
           in the related textiles industry, though less than in
 
           apparel, also have accelerated and have totaled 25,000 over
 
           the same five months.
 
                In contrast to factory employment, which fell over the
 
           month, the factory workweek edged up by a tenth of an hour
 
 
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           following a rise of two-tenths of an hour in the previous
 
           month.  Factory overtime also was up in September.
 
                Construction employment rose by 16,000 on a seasonally
 
           adjusted basis in September, following 2 months of little
 
           movement.  Employment in the industry likely is weaker than
 
           the September figure suggests.  Because of sluggish hiring
 
           this spring and summer, there were fewer workers to lay off
 
           than our seasonal factors expected.
 
                Average hourly earnings of private production or
 
           nonsupervisory workers rose by 4 cents in September after a
 
           decline of 2 cents in the preceding month.  While there have
 
           been strong gains in hourly earnings in three of the last
 
           four months, the quarter-by-quarter changes have been quite
 
           steady for more than a year.
 
                In the household survey, the unemployment rate was
 
           unchanged at 5.6 percent, about the level that has prevailed
 
           for some months.  Except for declines in the rates for black
 
           teens and Hispanics, there was little over-the-month
 
           movement in the unemployment rates for the various
 
           demographic groups.  Total employment increased by 361,000
 
           in September, and the civilian labor force grew by 380,000.
 
           Neither of these series has shown a consistent pattern of
 
           growth in 1995.
 
                The number of workers with a marginal attachment to the
 
           labor force--that is, those who want and are available for
 
           work but stopped looking some time in the past year--
 
 
 
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           continued to be below its year-earlier level.  The number of
 
           discouraged workers--persons who have stopped looking for
 
           work specifically because they do not believe there are jobs
 
           available for them--also was down from a year earlier.
 
                To summarize, the overall employment and unemployment
 
           picture changed very little in September.  Payroll
 
           employment continued to grow slowly, and the number of
 
           factory jobs declined further.  The unemployment rate
 
           remained at 5.6 percent, essentially where it has been for
 
           the past several months.
 
                Before responding to any questions you might have about
 
           this month's report, I would like to spend a few minutes
 
           discussing how reduced funding for the Bureau will affect
 
           the labor force data we report in the Employment Situation
 
           release.  At the lower funding levels that have been
 
           proposed, we would plan to reduce the number of households
 
           in the Current Population Survey from 56,000 to 50,000.  One
 
           result would be that, with the release of the January 1996
 
           figures, monthly labor force and unemployment data for the
 
           11 large states (as well as New York City and the Los
 
           Angeles-Long Beach Metropolitan Area) would no longer be
 
           estimated directly from the survey.  While we would continue
 
           to publish monthly estimates for these areas in the State
 
           and Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news
 
           release, they would be developed using the modeling approach
 
           that has been used in the other 39 states and the District
 
 
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           of Columbia since 1989.  Their release by BLS would be
 
           delayed by about 4 weeks each month, although some states
 
           might be able to report their estimates concurrently with
 
           the release of the national data.
 
                The impact of the sample cut on the national statistics
 
           would be to increase the variability of most national
 
           estimates by about 5 percent.  For example, under the
 
           reduced sample, a month-to-month change of 0.19 percentage
 
           points in the national unemployment rate would represent a
 
           statistically significant change at the 90-percent
 
           confidence level; the corresponding change under the current
 
           design is 0.18 points.  With this sample reduction, the
 
           Bureau expects to achieve annual cost savings of about
 
           2 1/2 million dollars.
 
 
                My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer your
 
           questions.