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                                                       Monday, December 3, 2001
Internet:  http://www.bls.gov/emp


                  BLS RELEASES 2000-2010 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS
Projections for the American workforce covering 2000 to 2010 were issued today 
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, providing 
information on where future job growth is expected by industry and occupation 
and the likely composition of the work force pursuing those jobs.

The 10-year projections of employment by industry and occupation, labor force, 
and economic growth are widely used in career guidance, in planning education 
and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends.  These 
projections use the new Standard Occupational Classification SOC) system.

The BLS projections were completed prior to the tragic events of September 11.  
While there have been numerous immediate economic impacts of this tragedy, the 
nature and severity of longer-term impacts remain unclear.  At this time, it is 
impossible to know how individual industries or occupations may be affected 
over the next decade.  BLS will continue to review its projections and, as the 
long-term consequences of September 11 become clearer, will incorporate these 
effects in subsequent analyses of industrial and occupational outlook.

Employment

Over the 2000-2010 period, total employment is projected to increase by 15 
percent, slightly less than the 17 percent growth during the previous 
decade, 1990-2000.  (The definition of employment used in these projections 
differs from those used in other BLS programs.  (See Table 1)


Industry Employment

* The service-producing sector will continue to be the dominant employment 
  generator in the economy, adding 20.5 million jobs by 2010.  Within the 
  goods-producing sector, construction and durable manufacturing will 
  contribute relatively modest employment gains.

* As employment in the service-producing sector increases by 19 percent, 
  manufacturing employment is expected to increase by only 3 percent over the 
  2000-2010 period.  Manufacturing will return to its 1990 employment level of 
  19.1 million, but its share of total jobs is expected to decline from 13 
  percent in 2000 to 11 percent in 2010. 

* Health services, business services, social services, and engineering, 
  management, and related services are expected to account for almost one of 
  every two nonfarm wage and salary jobs added to the economy during the 
  2000-2010 period.  These sectors account for a large share of the 
  fastest-growing industries. (See Table 3a) 

Occupational employment

* Professional and related occupations and service occupations are projected to 
  increase the fastest and to add the most jobs-7.0 million and 5.1 million, 
  respectively.  These two groups-on opposite ends of the educational 
  attainment and earnings spectrum-are expected to provide more than half of 
  total job growth over the 2000-2010 period.  (See Table 2)

* Transportation and material moving occupations are projected to grow 15 
  percent, about the same as the average for all occupations

* Office and administrative support occupations are projected to grow more 
  slowly than average, reflecting long-term trends in office automation.  
  Production occupations should grow much more slowly than average because of 
  advances in manufacturing technology.

* Eight of the 10 fastest growing occupations are computer-related, commonly 
  referred to as information technology occupations.  (See Table 3b)

* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs come from a wide range of 
  occupational groups.  (See Table 3c)

Education and training categories

* Employment in all seven education or training categories that generally 
  require a college degree or other post secondary award is projected to grow 
  faster than the average across all occupations.  These categories accounted 
  for 29 percent of all jobs in 2000 but will account for 42 percent of 
  projected new job growth, 2000-2010.  (See Table 4)

* The four categories requiring work-related training are projected to grow 
  more slowly than average, but would still add a substantial number of jobs.


Labor force

The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17 million over the 
2000-2010 period, reaching 158 million in 2010.  This 12.0-percent increase is 
only slightly greater than the 11.9-percent increase over the previous decade, 
1990-2000, when the labor force grew by 15 million.  (See Table 5)  The 
demographic composition of the labor force is expected to change because of 
changes in both the demographic composition of the population and in the rates 
of workforce participation across demographic groups.

* In 2010, the baby-boom cohort will be ages 46 to 64, and this age group will 
  account for a substantial share of the labor force.  The median age of the 
  labor force will continue to rise, even though the youth labor force 
  (aged 16 to 24) is expected to grow more rapidly than the overall labor 
  force for the first time in 25 years.

* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are 
  projected to increase.  The women's labor force will grow more rapidly than 
  the men's, and the women's share of the labor force will increase sharply 
  from 47 percent in 2000 to 48 percent in 2010. 

* The labor force group, Asian and other, and the Hispanic labor force are 
  projected to increase faster than other groups, 44 percent and 36 percent, 
  respectively, because of high net immigration and higher than average 
  fertility.  The black labor force is expected to grow by 21 percent, more 
  than twice as fast as the 9 percent growth rate for the white labor force. 

* The share of the labor force will increase from 5 to 6 percent for the Asian 
  and other group and from 11 to 13 percent for Hispanics.  White non-Hispanics 
  accounted for 73 percent of the labor force in 2000.  Their share of the 
  labor force in 2010 will decrease to 69 percent. 

Notes

More detailed information on the 2000-2010 projections appears in four articles 
in the November 2001 issue of the Monthly Labor Review,
published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  A 
graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the
forthcoming Winter 2001-02 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the 
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.  The Review
costs $43 a year; single copies are $13.  The Quarterly costs $14 a year; 
single copies are $5.50.  Make checks payable to the 
Superintendent of Documents.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired 
individuals upon request.  Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral 
phone: 1-800-877-8339.

Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010


       Industry                           Thousands of jobs          Change       Percent distribution   Average annual
                                                                                                         rate of change

                                       1990     2000     2010  1990-00  2000-10    1990   2000   2010   1990-00  2000-10

Total(1)                            124,324  145,594  167,754   21,269   22,160    98.2   98.8   99.0      1.6      1.4

Nonfarm wage and salary             108,760  130,639  152,447   21,879   21,807    87.5   89.7   90.9      1.8      1.6
Goods producing                      24,906   25,709   27,057      803    1,347    20.0   17.7   16.1      0.3      0.5
Mining                                  709      543      488     -167      -55     0.6    0.4    0.3     -2.6     -1.1
Construction                          5,120    6,698    7,522    1,578      825     4.1    4.6    4.5      2.7      1.2
Manufacturing                        19,077   18,469   19,047     -607      577    15.3   12.7   11.4     -0.3      0.3
Durable                              11,109   11,138   11,780       29      642     8.9    7.7    7.0      0.0      0.6
Nondurable                            7,968    7,331    7,267     -637      -64     6.4    5.0    4.3     -0.8     -0.1

Service producing                    83,854  104,930  125,390   21,076   20,461    67.4   72.1   74.7      2.3      1.8
Transportaion,
   communications, utilities          5,776    7,019    8,274    1,243    1,255     4.6    4.8    4.9      2.0      1.7
Wholesale trade                       6,173    7,024    7,800      851      776     5.0    4.8    4.6      1.3      1.1
Retail trade                         19,601   23,307   26,400    3,706    3,093    15.8   16.0   15.7      1.7      1.3
Finance,
   insurance, and real estate         6,709    7,560    8,247      851      687     5.4    5.2    4.9      1.2      0.9
Services                             27,291   39,340   52,233   12,049   12,893    22.0   27.0   31.1      3.7      2.9
Government                           18,304   20,680   22,436    2,376    1,757    14.7   14.2   13.4      1.2      0.8
Federal Government                    3,085    2,777    2,622     -308     -154     2.5    1.9    1.6     -1.0     -0.6
State and local government           15,219   17,903   19,814    2,684    1,911    12.2   12.3   11.8      1.6      1.0

Agriculture(2)                        3,340    3,526    3,849      186      323     2.7    2.4    2.3      0.5      0.9
Private household wage and salary     1,014      890      664     -124     -226     0.8    0.6    0.4     -1.3     -2.9
Nonagriculture self-employed and
unpaid family workers(3)              8,921    8,731    9,062     -190      331     7.2    6.0    5.4     -0.2      0.4
Secondary wage and salary jobs in
   agricutlure (except agricultural
   services); forestry, fishing, and
   trapping; and private households(4)  205      155      150      -50       -5     0.2    0.1    0.1     -2.8     -0.3
Secondary jobs as a self-employed
   or unpaid family worker(5)          2084     1652     1582     -432      -70     1.7    1.1    0.9     -2.3     -0.4


(1) Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which
    counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, agricultural, and private household data are from the
    Current populaiton Survey (household survey), which counts workers.
(2) Excludes government wage and salary workers, and inlcudes private sector for SIC 08, 09 (forestry, fishing,
    hunting, and trapping).
(3) Exludes SIC 08,09 (forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping).
(4) Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agriculture (except agricultural services);
    forestry, fishing, hunting and trapping; and private households.
(5) Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.
Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2000 and projected 2010
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]                                                        
                                                                                     
                                                                    Employment                          Change
                Occupational group                       Number           Percent distribution    Number     Percent
                                                     2000       2010         2000       2010                     
                                                                                                                
     Total, all occupations                        145,594    167,754       100.0      100.0      22,160       15.2
                                                                                                          
Management, business, and financial occupations     15,519     17,635        10.7       10.5       2,115       13.6
Professional and related occupations                26,758     33,709        18.4       20.1       6,952       26.0
Service occupations                                 26,075     31,163        17.9       18.6       5,088       19.5
Sales and related occupations                       15,513     17,365        10.7       10.4       1,852       11.9
Office and administrative support occupations       23,882     26,053        16.4       15.5       2,171        9.1
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations           1,429      1,480         1.0         .9          51        3.6
Construction and extraction occupations              7,451      8,439         5.1        5.0         989       13.3
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations    5,820      6,482         4.0        3.9         662       11.4
Production occupations                              13,060     13,811         9.0        8.2         750        5.7
Transportation and material moving occupations      10,088     11,618         6.9        6.9       1,530       15.2

NOTE:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.
Table 3a. Industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2000-2010

                                             Thousands       Change    Average annual
                                              of jobs                  rate of change
        Industry description                2000    2010    2000-2010    2000-2010

Computer and data processing services      2,095   3,900        1,805       6.4
Residential care                             806   1,318          512       5.0
Health services, nec.                      1,210   1,900          690       4.6
Cable and pay television services            216     325          109       4.2
Personnel supply services                  3,887   5,800        1,913       4.1
Warehousing and storage                      206     300           94       3.8
Water and sanitation                         214     310           96       3.8
Miscellaneous business services            2,301   3,305        1,004       3.7
Miscellaneous equipment rental and leasing   279     397          118       3.6
Management and public relations            1,090   1,550          460       3.6

NOTE: nec. = not elsewhere classified
Table 3b.  Fastest growing occupations, 2000-10
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
 
                                                                 Employment            Change
               Occupation                                                                                    
                                                               2000     2010      Number   Percent
          
Computer software engineers, applications                       380      760        380     100
Computer support specialists                                    506      996        490      97
Computer software engineers, systems software                   317      601        284      90
Network and computer systems administrators                     229      416        187      82
Network systems and data communications analysts                119      211         92      77
Desktop publishers                                               38       63         25      67
Database administrators                                         106      176         70      66
Personal and home care aides                                    414      672        258      62
Computer systems analysts                                       431      689        258      60
Medical assistants                                              329      516        187      57
Table 3c.  Occupations with the largest job growth, 2000-10
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
                                                                 
                                                                                Employment            Change
                       Occupation
                                                                             2000      2010      Number   Percent

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food          2,206     2,879        673      30
Customer service representatives                                            1,946     2,577        631      32
Registered nurses                                                           2,194     2,755        561      26
Retail salespersons                                                         4,109     4,619        510      12
Computer support specialists                                                  506       996        490      97
Cashiers, except gaming                                                     3,325     3,799        474      14
Office clerks, general                                                      2,705     3,135        430      16
Security guards                                                             1,106     1,497        391      35
Computer software engineers, applications                                     380       760        380     100
Waiters and waitresses                                                      1,983     2,347        364      18
Table 4. Employment and total job openings by education or training category, 2000-2010
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
                                                      
                                                                                                   Total job openings
                                                                                                  due to growth and net
                                             Employment                       Change,                  replacements,
                                                                             2000-2010                 2000-2010(1)
                                                                      
    Most significant source of        Number           Percent       Number   Percent    Percent    Number   Percent
      education or training                          distribution           distribution                   distribution

                                    2000     2010     2000   2010                           
                                                                                   
     Total, all occupations      145,594  167,754    100.0  100.0    22,160    100.0       15.2     57,932    100.0
                                        
Bachelor's or higher degree       30,072   36,556     20.7   21.8     6,484     29.3       21.6     12,130     20.9
  First professional degree        2,034    2,404      1.4    1.4       370      1.7       18.2        691      1.2
  Doctoral degree                  1,492    1,845      1.0    1.1       353      1.6       23.7        760      1.3
  Master's degree                  1,426    1,759      1.0    1.0       333      1.5       23.4        634      1.1
  Bachelor's or higher degree,
   plus work experience            7,319    8,741      5.0    5.2     1,422      6.4       19.4      2,741      4.7
  Bachelor's degree               17,801   21,807     12.2   13.0     4,006     18.1       22.5      7,304     12.6
                           
Associate degree or 
 postsecondary vocational award   11,761   14,600      8.1    8.7     2,839     12.8       24.1      5,383      9.3
  Associate degree                 5,083    6,710      3.5    4.0     1,626      7.3       32.0      2,608      4.5
  Postsecondary vocational award   6,678    7,891      4.6    4.7     1,213      5.5       18.2      2,775      4.8
                                  
Work-related training            103,760  116,597     71.3   69.5    12,837     57.9       12.4     40,419     69.8
  Work experience in a 
   related occupation             10,456   11,559      7.2    6.9     1,102      5.0       10.5      3,180      5.5
  Long-term on-the-job 
   training                       12,435   13,373      8.5    8.0       938      4.2        7.5      3,737      6.5
  Moderate-term on-the-job 
   training                       27,671   30,794     19.0   18.4     3,123     14.1       11.3      8,767     15.1
  Short-term on-the-job 
   training                       53,198   60,871     36.5   36.3     7,673     34.6       14.4     24,735     42.7


(1) Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net replacements.  If employment change is 
    negative, job openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net replacements.

NOTE:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.
Table 5. Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1990, 2000, and projected 2010
[Numbers in thousands]

                             Level               Change        Percent change   Percent distribution  Annual growth rate
                                                                                                          (percent)

   Group             1990    2000    2010  1990-2000 2000-10  1990-2000 2000-10  1990    2000    2010  1990-2000 2000-10

Total, 16 years 
 and older         125,840 140,863 157,721   15,023  16,858      11.9    12.0   100.0   100.0   100.0      1.1     1.1

 16 to 24           22,492  22,715  26,081      223   3,366       1.0    14.8    17.9    16.1    16.5      0.1     1.4
 25 to 54           88,322  99,974 104,994   11,652   5,020      13.2     5.0    70.2    71.0    66.6      1.2     0.5
 55 and older       15,026  18,175  26,646    3,149   8,471      21.0    46.6    11.9    12.9    16.9      1.9     3.9

Men, Total          69,011  75,247  82,221    6,236   6,974       9.0     9.3    54.8    53.4    52.1      0.9     0.9
Women, Total        56,829  65,616  75,500    8,787   9,884      15.5    15.1    45.2    46.6    47.9      1.4     1.4

White, Total       107,447 117,574 128,043   10,127  10,470       9.4     8.9    85.4    83.5    81.2      0.9     0.9
Black, Total        13,740  16,603  20,041    2,863   3,439      20.8    20.7    10.9    11.8    12.7      1.9     1.9
Asian and other, 
 Total(1)            4,653   6,687   9,636    2,034   2,950      43.7    44.1     3.7     4.7     6.1      3.7     3.7

Hispanic origin, 
 Total              10,720  15,368  20,947    4,648   5,579      43.4    36.3     8.5    10.9    13.3      3.7     3.1
Other than 
 Hispanic 
 origin, Total     115,120 125,495 136,774   10,375  11,279       9.0     9.0    91.5    89.1    86.7      0.9     0.9
  White non-
   Hispanic         97,818 102,963 109,118    5,144   6,155       5.3     6.0    77.7    73.1    69.2      0.5     0.6


(1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaska Natives. 
    The historical data are derived by subtracting "black" and "white" from the total; projections are made directly, 
    not by subtraction.