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                 BLS RELEASES 2002-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released
projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely
composition of the workforce pursuing those jobs.

The 10-year projections of economic growth, employment by industry and
occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance, in planning
education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment trends.
Covering the 2002-12 decade, these projections reflect the 2000 Standard
Occupational Classification (SOC) system and the 2002 North American Industry
Classification System (NAICS).


Employment

Over the 2002-12 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 21.3
million jobs, or 15 percent.  Over the previous decade (1992-2002), total
employment grew by 20.7 million jobs but at a slightly faster rate, 17 percent.
(The definition of employment used in these projections differs from
the definitions used in other BLS programs.  See table 1.)


Industry employment

* Employment growth will be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the
  economy.  Education and health services and professional and business serv-
  ices represent the industry divisions with the strongest projected employment
  growth: projected to grow twice as fast as the overall economy.  Information,
  leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing are other service
  -providing industries that are projected to grow faster than average.  (See 
  table 1.) 

* Construction is the only goods-producing sector in which employment is pro-
  jected to grow.  Manufacturing, however, is expected to decline by 1 percent,
  a much smaller decline than what occurred in the previous decade.  Nonethe-
  less, employment in goods-producing industries is expected to decrease from
  16 percent to 14 percent of total employment.  Apparel manufacturing, textile
  mills, and computer and electronic product manufacturing are the goods-
  producing industries with the largest projected employment declines.

* The 10 fastest growing detailed industries, led by software publishers, are
  in the service-providing sector.  (See table 3a.)


Occupational employment

* Professional and related occupations and service occupations-two groups at
  opposite ends of educational and earnings ranges-are projected to increase
  the fastest and to add the most jobs, accounting for more than half of total
  job growth over the 2002-12 decade.  (See table 2.)

* Construction and extraction occupations are projected to grow at the same
  rate as the average for all occupations-15 percent.

* Office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, and
  farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected to grow much more
  slowly than average.

* Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (infor-
  mation technology) occupations.  (See table 3b.)

* The 10 occupations adding the most jobs employ a large number of workers and
  come from a wide range of occupational groups.  (See table 3c.)


Education and training categories

* An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of post-
  secondary education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations.
  (See table 3b.)

* Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of post-
  secondary education or training for 6 of the 10 occupations with the largest
  job growth.  (See table 3c.)


Labor force

* The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17.4 million over the
  2002-12 decade, reaching 162.3 million by 2012.  This 12-percent increase is
  greater than the 11.3-percent increase over the previous decade, 1992-2002,
  when the labor force grew by 14.4 million.  (See table 4.)  Changes in the
  demographic composition of the labor force are expected because of changes
  both in the composition of the population and in the rates of labor force
  participation across demographic groups.

* The projected growth of the labor force will be affected by the aging of the
  baby-boom generation-persons born between 1946 and 1964.  In 2012, baby-
  boomers will be 48 to 66 years old.  The number of workers in this age group
  is expected to increase significantly over the 2002-12 decade.  The labor
  force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-and-older
  group projected to grow by 49.3 percent, 4 times the 12-percent growth pro-
  jected for the overall labor force.  In 2012, youths-those between the ages
  of 16 and 24-will constitute 15 percent of the labor force, and prime-age
  workers-those between the ages of 25 and 54-will make up 66 percent of the
  labor force.  The share of the 55-and-older age group will increase from 14.3
  percent to 19.1 percent of the labor force.
  
* The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are
  projected to increase.  The number of women in the labor force is projected
  to grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 10-percent growth projected for men.
  As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase by 1
  percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by 2012.  In contrast,
  men's share is projected to decline by 1 percent-from 53.5 percent to 52.5
  percent-over the 2002-12 decade.

* By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 23.8 million, due to
  faster population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertil-
  ity rates, and increased immigration levels.  Despite relatively slow growth,
  white non-Hispanics will remain the largest group, composing 66 percent of
  the labor force.  Asians will continue to be the fastest growing of the four
  labor force groups.


Notes

More detailed information on the 2002-12 projections appears in five articles
in the February 2004 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau
of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.  A graphic presentation of the
highlights of the projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2003-04
Occupational Outlook Quarterly.

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the
U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.  The Review costs $49
a year; single copies are $15.  The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies
are $6.  Make checks payable to the Superintendent of Documents.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individ-
uals upon request.  Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone:
1-800-877-8339.



Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

                                                                Numeric        Percent        Percent     Annual growth
                 	                  Employment            change         change	    distribution  rate (percent)

    Industry division                                         1992   2002    1992  2002                      1992  2002
	                             1992    2002    2012      to     to      to    to    1992  2002  2012    to    to
	                                                      2002   2012    2002  2012                      2002  2012
	                                                      
Total(1)                       	   123,325 144,014 165,319   20,689 21,305   16.8  14.8	 100.0 100.0 100.0    1.6   1.4
												
Nonfarm wage and salary	           109,526 131,063 152,690   21,537 21,627   19.7  16.5	  88.8	91.0  92.4    1.8   1.5
												
Goods-Producing, excluding
  agriculture	                    22,016  22,550  23,346	534    796    2.4   3.5	  17.9	15.7  14.1    0.2   0.3
 Mining	                               610     512     451	-98    -61  -16.1 -11.8	   0.5	 0.4   0.3   -1.7  -1.3
 Construction	                     4,608   6,732   7,745    2,124  1,014   46.1  15.1	   3.7	 4.7   4.7    3.9   1.4
 Manufacturing	                    16,799  15,307  15,149   -1,492   -158   -8.9  -1.0	  13.6	10.6   9.2   -0.9  -0.1
												
Service-Providing	            87,510 108,513 129,344   21,003 20,831   24.0  19.2	  71.0	75.3  78.2    2.2   1.8
 Utilities	                       726     600     565     -126    -34  -17.4  -5.7	   0.6	 0.4   0.3   -1.9  -0.6
 Wholesale trade	             5,110   5,641   6,279	531    638   10.4  11.3	   4.1	 3.9   3.8    1.0   1.1
 Retail trade	                    12,828  15,047  17,129    2,219  2,082   17.3  13.8	  10.4	10.4  10.4    1.6   1.3
 Transportation and warehousing	     3,462   4,205   5,120	744    914   21.5  21.7	   2.8	 2.9   3.1    2.0   2.0
 Information	                     2,641   3,420   4,052	779    632   29.5  18.5	   2.1	 2.4   2.5    2.6   1.7
 Financial activities	             6,540   7,843   8,806    1,303    964   19.9  12.3	   5.3	 5.4   5.3    1.8   1.2
 Professional and business services 10,969  16,010  20,876    5,040  4,866   45.9  30.4	   8.9	11.1  12.6    3.9   2.7
 Education and health services	    11,891  16,184  21,329    4,293  5,145   36.1  31.8	   9.6	11.2  12.9    3.1   2.8
 Leisure and hospitality	     9,437  11,969  14,104    2,532  2,135   26.8  17.8	   7.7	 8.3   8.5    2.4   1.7
 Other services	                     5,120   6,105   7,065	985    960   19.2  15.7	   4.2	 4.2   4.3    1.8   1.5
 Federal government	             3,111   2,767   2,779     -344     12  -11.1   0.4	   2.5	 1.9   1.7   -1.2   0.0
 State and local government	    15,675  18,722  21,240    3,047  2,518   19.4  13.4	  12.7	13.0  12.8    1.8   1.3
												
												
Agriculture(2)	                     2,639   2,245   1,905     -394   -340  -14.9 -15.1	   2.1	 1.6   1.2   -1.6  -1.6
												
Nonagriculture self-employed and
  unpaid family workers	             9,009   9,018   9,162       10    144    0.1   1.6	   7.3   6.3   5.5    0.0   0.2
Secondary wage and salary jobs in
  agricultural production, forestry,
  fishing, and private household
  industries(3)                        178     143     128      -35    -15  -19.8 -10.5    0.1   0.1   0.1   -2.2  -1.1
Secondary jobs as a self-employed
  or unpaid family worker(4)	     1,973   1,545   1,434     -428   -111  -21.7  -7.2    1.6   1.1   0.9   -2.4  -0.7
  
  
  
1. Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which
   counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from
   the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.
2. Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which
   is from the Current Employment Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are excluded.
3. Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household
   industries.
4. Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.



Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)


                                                                         Employment                      Change
        Occupational group                                       Number      Percent distribution    Number  Percent
	                                                      2002    2012       2002    2012	
	                                                     
Total, all occupations                                      144,014  165,319    100.0   100.0        21,305   14.8
						
Management occupations                                       10,056   11,277      7.0     6.8         1,221   12.1
Business and financial operations occupations                 5,445    6,606      3.8     4.0         1,162   21.3
Professional and related occupations                         27,687   34,147     19.2    20.7         6,459   23.3
  Computer and mathematical occupations                       3,018    4,069      2.1     2.5         1,051   34.8
  Architecture and engineering occupations                    2,587    2,809      1.8     1.7           222    8.6
  Life, physical, and social science occupations              1,237    1,450      0.9     0.9           212   17.2
  Community and social services occupations                   2,190    2,764      1.5     1.7           574   26.2
  Legal occupations                                           1,168    1,357      0.8     0.8           190   16.2
  Education, training, and library occupations                8,530   10,639      5.9     6.4         2,109   24.7
  Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations  2,376    2,769      1.7     1.7           393   16.5
  Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations          6,580    8,288      4.6     5.0         1,708   26.0
Service occupations                                          26,569   31,905     18.5    19.3         5,336   20.1
  Healthcare support occupations                              3,310    4,452      2.3     2.7         1,143   34.5
  Protective service occupations                              3,116    3,885      2.2     2.4           769   24.7
  Food preparation and serving related occupations           10,200   11,807      7.1     7.1         1,607   15.8
  Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations   5,485    6,386      3.8     3.9           901   16.4
  Personal care and service occupations                       4,458    5,375      3.1     3.3           917   20.6
Sales and related occupations                                15,260   17,231     10.6    10.4         1,971   12.9
Office and administrative support occupations                23,851   25,464     16.6    15.4         1,613    6.8
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations                    1,072    1,107      0.7     0.7            35    3.3
Construction and extraction occupations                       7,292    8,388      5.1     5.1         1,096   15.0
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations             5,696    6,472      4.0     3.9           776   13.6
Production occupations                                       11,258   11,612      7.8     7.0           354    3.2
Transportation and material moving occupations                9,828   11,111      6.8     6.7         1,282   13.1

						
NOTE:  Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.



Table 3a. The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

                                                                   Employment          Change        Annual growth
               Industry                                          2002      2012    Number  Percent   rate (percent)
						
Software publishers                                             256.0     429.7     173.7    67.9         5.3
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services       731.8   1,137.4     405.6    55.4         4.5
Community care facilities for the elderly and residential
  care facilities, n.e.c.                                       695.3   1,077.6     382.3    55.0         4.5
Computer systems design and related services                  1,162.7   1,797.7     635.0    54.6         4.5
Employment services                                           3,248.8   5,012.3   1,763.5    54.3         4.4
Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation
  services                                                    1,269.3   1,866.6     597.3    47.1         3.9
Ambulatory health care services except offices of health
  practitioners                                               1,443.6   2,113.4     669.8    46.4         3.9
Water, sewage, and other systems                                 48.5      71.0      22.5    46.4         3.9
Internet services, data processing, and other information
  services                                                      528.8     773.1     244.3    46.2         3.9
Child day care services                                         734.2   1,050.3     316.1    43.1         3.6

						
NOTE:  n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.




Table 3b. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                                                                 
                                                    Employment      Change       
                  Occupation                                                     Most significant source of post-
                                                   2002   2012  Number Percent   secondary education or training(1)

Medical assistants	                            365    579	  215	  59     Moderate-term on-the-job training
Network systems and data communications analysts    186	   292	  106	  57     Bachelor's degree
Physician assistants	                             63	    94     31	  49     Bachelor's degree
Social and human service assistants	            305	   454	  149	  49     Moderate-term on-the-job training
Home health aides	                            580	   859	  279	  48     Short-term on-the-job training
Medical records and health information technicians  147	   216	   69	  47     Associate degree
Physical therapist aides	                     37	    54	   17	  46     Short-term on-the-job training
Computer software engineers, applications           394	   573	  179	  46     Bachelor's degree
Computer software engineers, systems software	    281	   409	  128	  45     Bachelor's degree
Physical therapist assistants	                     50	    73	   22	  45     Associate degree


   (1) An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
       workers to become fully qualified.  For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected 
       Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data,Bulletin 2542 (Bureau
       of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this 
       publication.
       
       
       
       
Table 3c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-12
(Numbers in thousands of jobs)
                                                                 
                                        Employment       Change       
                  Occupation                                          Most significant source of postsecondary
                                        2002   2012  Number Percent   education or training(1)

Registered nurses		       2,284  2,908    623     27     Associate degree
Postsecondary teachers	               1,581  2,184    603     38     Doctoral degree
Retail salespersons	               4,076  4,672    596     15     Short-term on-the-job training
Customer service representatives       1,894  2,354    460     24     Moderate-term on-the-job training
Combined food preparation and serving 
  workers, including fast food         1,990  2,444    454     23     Short-term on-the-job training
Cashiers, except gaming	               3,432  3,886    454     13     Short-term on-the-job training
Janitors and cleaners, except maids
  and housekeeping cleaners	       2,267  2,681    414     18     Short-term on-the-job training
General and operations managers	       2,049  2,425    376     18     Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
Waiters and waitresses	               2,097  2,464    367     18     Short-term on-the-job training
Nursing aides, orderlies, and
  attendants                           1,375  1,718    343     25     Short-term on-the-job training


   (1) An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most
       workers to become fully qualified.  For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected 
       Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data,Bulletin 2542 (Bureau
       of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this 
       publication.
       
       
       
       
Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
(Numbers in thousands)


                                                              Change                    Percent           Annual growth
                                Level                   Number      Percent          distribution         rate (percent)

    Group                                             1992  2002   1992 2002                               1992   2002
                     1992  2002(2) 2002(3)   2012      to    to     to   to    1992 2002(2) 2002(3) 2012    to     to
                                                      2002  2012   2002 2012                               2002   2012
Total, 16 years
 and older         128,105 142,534 144,863 162,269  14,429 17,406  11.3 12.0  100.0  100.0   100.0  100.0   1.1    1.1

 16 to 24           21,616  22,425  22,366  24,377     809  2,011   3.7  9.0   16.9   15.7    15.4   15.0   0.4    0.9
 25 to 54           91,429  99,865 101,720 106,866   8,436  5,146   9.2  5.1   71.4   70.1    70.2   65.9   0.9    0.5
 55 and older       15,060  20,244  20,777  31,026   5,184 10,249  34.4 49.3   11.8   14.2    14.3   19.1   3.0    4.1

Men                 69,964  76,052  77,500  85,252   6,088  7,751   8.7 10.0   54.6   53.4    53.5   52.5   0.8    1.0
Women               58,141  66,481  67,363  77,017   8,340  9,654  14.3 14.3   45.4   46.6    46.5   47.5   1.3    1.3

One race
 White             108,837 118,569 120,150 130,358   9,732 10,208   8.9  8.5   85.0   83.2    82.9   80.3   0.9    0.8
 Black or African
  American          14,162  16,834  16,564  19,765   2,672  3,201  18.9 19.3   11.1   11.8    11.4   12.2   1.7    1.8
 Asian               5,106   7,130   5,949   8,971   2,024  3,022  39.6 50.8    4.0    5.0     4.1    5.5   3.4    4.2
All other groups(1)    n/a     n/a   2,200   3,175     n/a    975   n/a 44.3    n/a    n/a     1.5    2.0   n/a    3.7

Hispanic or Latino  11,338  16,200  17,942  23,785   4,862  5,843  42.9 32.6    8.9   11.4    12.4   14.7   3.6    2.9
Other than
 Hispanic origin   116,767 126,334 126,921 138,484   9,567 11,562   8.2  9.1   91.1   88.6    87.6   85.3   0.8    0.9
  White (only)
   non-Hispanic     98,724 103,360 103,348 106,237   4,636  2,889   4.7  2.8   77.1   72.5    71.3   65.5   0.5    0.3


   1. The All other group includes those reporting the race categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or
      (1b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, and (2) those reporting two or more races.
   2. Data calculated with 1990 census weights.
   3. Data calculated with 2000 census weights.
   Data for 1992 represent the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights.
   Data for 2002 and 2012 represents the "Asian only" race category with 2000 census weights.
   The historical data for 2002 has been computed for "All other groups".