TEXT

 
 
                              FOR DELIVERY: 9:30 A.M., E.S.T.
                              FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 4, 1994
 
 
 
  ___________________________________________________________
  Advance copies of this statement are made available to the
  press under lock-up conditions with the explicit
  understanding that the data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m.
  Eastern time.  ____________________________________________
 
 
                          Statement of
 
                      Katharine G. Abraham
                          Commissioner
                   Bureau of Labor Statistics
 
                        November 4, 1994
 
 
 
 
 
        Good morning.  I would like to take this opportunity
 
  to add a few comments to supplement this morning's
 
  Employment Situation news release.  My colleagues and I will
 
  be happy to answer your questions at the conclusion of my
 
  remarks.
 
       The nation's labor market continued to improve in
 
  October.  Both our household and establishment surveys
 
  showed further job gains.  While the unemployment rate, at
 
  5.8 percent, was little changed over the month, it has
 
  declined by nearly a full percentage point since January.
 
       The number of payroll jobs rose by 194,000 in October,
 
  somewhat below the average monthly growth so far this year.
 
  A gain of 40,000 jobs in manufacturing brought to 200,000
 
  the industry's gain since its recovery began 13 months ago.
 
  Autos, fabricated metals, and several other durable goods
 
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  manufacturing industries added jobs in October.  There also
 
  appears to have been some moderation of job declines in
 
  defense-related industries, particularly aircraft and
 
  instruments.  Average weekly hours for production workers in
 
  manufacturing edged up in October.  The factory workweek, at
 
  42.1 hours, remains at a level not seen since the end of
 
  World War II.
 
       The largest over-the-month gain was in the services
 
  industry, which added 96,000 jobs.  For the second month in
 
  a row, however, job growth in services (including that in
 
  business services) was somewhat below the average for this
 
  year.  Broad-based job gains in retail trade featured
 
  increases among auto dealers, furniture stores, and general
 
  merchandise stores.  Wholesale trade, which had solid gains
 
  over the prior 2 months, showed additional growth in
 
  October.  Employment in construction and the other major
 
  industry groups changed little in October.
 
       Turning to data from our survey of households, total
 
  employment showed a large gain for the third month in a row,
 
  after lagging earlier in the year.  This brings the growth
 
  in total employment since January of this year more in line
 
  with the strong gains in nonfarm jobs registered by the
 
  payroll survey.
 
       The labor force also has expanded markedly over the
 
  past 3 months, after showing no net growth between January
 
  and July.  Over the 9-month period since January, the labor
 
 
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  force has risen by 1.2 million, about in line with growth in
 
  the working-age population.  During that span, the number of
 
  unemployed persons has declined by 1.1 million to 7.6
 
  million, and the jobless rate has declined from 6.7 to 5.8
 
  percent.  The unemployment rate for adult women fell from
 
  6.0 to 5.0 percent, and that for adult men from 5.9 to 5.1
 
  percent.  The teenage rate has moved somewhat erratically
 
  this year and, at 17.3 percent in October, is slightly below
 
  the January figure.  Jobless rates for whites, blacks, and
 
  Hispanics all have declined since January.
 
       In summary, the job market continues to improve.
 
  Employment, as measured by both our household and
 
  establishment surveys, rose in October, and the unemployment
 
  rate has trended downward to 5.8 percent.  Since January,
 
  there has been marked employment growth and the jobless rate
 
  has declined by nearly 1 percentage point.
 
 
 
  The upcoming 1994 payroll employment benchmark revision
 
       Once a year, the Bureau adjusts the payroll survey's
 
  sample-based employment estimates to incorporate the
 
  previous year's March universe employment counts in a
 
  process known as benchmarking.  These universe employment
 
  counts are derived principally from State unemployment
 
  insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are
 
  required to file.  By early November of each year, we
 
  typically have completed preliminary tabulations of these
 
 
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  universe counts for the first quarter of the year, which we
 
  routinely share at the time we release our October
 
  Employment Situation report.
 
       Preliminary 1994 first quarter universe tabulations
 
  suggest that there was stronger job growth than we
 
  previously reported for the 12-month period ending in March
 
  1994.  Indications at this time are that the March 1994
 
  payroll employment estimate will be revised upward by
 
  approximately 760,000, or 0.7 percent.  The historical
 
  average for benchmark revisions over the past decade has
 
  been plus or minus 0.2 percent, with revisions ranging in
 
  size from zero to 0.6 percent.
 
       Final benchmark adjustments for March 1994 are
 
  scheduled to be formally introduced next June.  In the
 
  interim, BLS will continue to validate the UI universe
 
  counts and other benchmark source material.  At this time,
 
  it appears that approximately one-quarter of the total
 
  benchmark revision stems from an updated estimate of
 
  employment in the sectors not covered by the UI universe
 
  tabulations, for which employment counts must be developed
 
  from alternative sources.  Over the coming months, BLS will
 
  continue a program of research that will help us to
 
  understand the causes for this year's revision.
 
 
 
       My colleagues and I now would be glad to answer any
 
  questions you might have.