TEXT

Table 1.  Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990, and moderate                                     
Table 2.  Civilian labor force participation rates by sex,                                                                          
Table 3.  Civilian labor force, 1990 and projected 2005, entrants,                                                                  
Table 4.  Employment by major industry division, 1975, 1990, and projected to 2005                                                  
Table 5.  Employment by major occupational group, 1990 and projected                                                                

                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
 Technical Information: (202) 606-5700                       USDL: 93-513                                                           
 Media Contact:         (202) 606-5902          For release:  10 A.M. EST                                                           
                                                                                                                                    
 Wednesday, November 24, 1993                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
            BLS RELEASES NEW 1992-2005 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
    New projections  for the  American work  force from 1992 to 2005 were                                                           
 released today  by the  Bureau of  Labor Statistics,  U.S. Department of                                                           
 Labor, providing  information on where future job growth is expected and                                                           
 what the  demographic makeup  of the work force pursuing those jobs will                                                           
 be.                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                                    
    These projections  to 2005  of overall  economic  growth,  the  labor                                                           
 force, and  employment by  occupation and  industry are  widely used for                                                           
 studying long-range  economic and  employment trends, planning education                                                           
 and training programs, and developing career information.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
    BLS develops  three alternative  sets of  projections because  of the                                                           
 uncertainty inherent  in the  future.   Low, moderate,  and high  growth                                                           
 alternative patterns  for overall Gross Domestic Product and for changes                                                           
 in the  structure of  the economy's  demand for  goods and  services are                                                           
 included.   This release  uses the  moderate growth projections in which                                                           
 personal consumption  expenditures continue  to account  for about  two-                                                           
 thirds of  GDP, the  improvement in foreign trade seen during the latter                                                           
 half of  the 1980s  moderates somewhat,  and national  defense  spending                                                           
 declines.                                                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
    Highlights of the moderate growth scenario include:                                                                             
                                                                                                                                    
 Labor force                                                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                    
    The future  supply of  workers, the  labor  force,  is  projected  to                                                           
 increase by  24 million  over the  1992-2005 period, from 127 million to                                                           
 151 million.   This  will  represent  an  increase  of  18-1/2  percent,                                                           
 slightly less  than the  21 percent  increase over  the previous 13-year                                                           
 period, 1979 to 1992 (table 1).                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
       o 51.2 million workers are expected to enter the labor force                                                                 
         over the 1992-2005 period (table 2).                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
       o 27.7 million  will replace  workers who  leave  the  labor                                                                 
         force because of death, retirement, and other reasons.                                                                     
                                                                                                                                    
       o 23.5 million will reflect net labor force growth.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
    Changing  patterns  of  immigration,  birth  rates,  and  work  force                                                           
 participation will  cause the demographic composition of the labor force                                                           
 to change.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                    
       o White non-Hispanics  are projected  to account for two out                                                                 
         of three  entrants, but their share of the work force will                                                                 
         fall because other labor force groups will grow faster.                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
       o By 2005,  the number  of Hispanics in the labor force will                                                                 
         nearly equal black, non-Hispanics.                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                    
       o Labor force  growth of  women will  be faster than that of                                                                 
         men as  their labor  force participation rates continue to                                                                 
         increase, although at a slower pace.                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
       o Baby boomers  (those born from 1946 to 1964) will continue                                                                 
         to have  a significant  impact on  the age distribution of                                                                 
         the labor force.  Thus, the 45-54 age group, which will be                                                                 
                                                                                                                                    
         made up  entirely of  baby boomers  in 2005, will increase                                                                 
         three times faster than the labor force as a whole.                                                                        
                                                                                                                                    
       o The decline  in the birth rate in the late-1960s and 1970s                                                                 
         will contribute  to an  absolute decline  in the number of                                                                 
         25-34 year  olds in  the labor  force over  the  1992-2005                                                                 
         period.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
 Employment                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                    
    In  identifying   the  demand  for  workers,  BLS  projects  industry                                                           
 employment and  occupational employment.   Over  the  1992-2005  period,                                                           
 total employment  is projected  to increase 22 percent or by 26 million,                                                           
 from 121 million to 147 million (table 3).  In comparison, growth was 19                                                           
 percent and 20 million in the previous 13-year period.                                                                             
                                                                                                                                    
    Industry employment                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                    
       o Service-producing industries  will continue to account for                                                                 
         virtually all  job growth.    Within  the  goods-producing                                                                 
         sector, only  construction will add jobs due to employment                                                                 
         growth.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
       o Manufacturing's  share   of  total  jobs  is  expected  to                                                                 
         continue  to  ebb  despite  projected  growth  in  output.                                                                 
         Manufacturing will  still remain  a dominant  force in the                                                                 
         economy, accounting  for one  of every  seven jobs  in the                                                                 
         year 2005.                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                    
       o Health, business, and social services will account for one                                                                 
         out of  every three jobs added to the economy from 1992 to                                                                 
         2005.   These groups  also include eight of the 10 fastest                                                                 
         growing industries (table 5a).                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                    
    Occupational employment                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                    
       o Professional   specialty,   managerial,   and   technician                                                                 
         occupationsjthe major  occupational groups  requiring  the                                                                 
         most educationjare  among the four fastest growing groups.                                                                 
         Service workers  is  the  only  major  occupational  group                                                                 
         projected to  grow faster  than average  that ranks low in                                                                 
         terms of educational attainment.                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                    
       o The projections indicate jobs will be available across the                                                                 
         entire educational spectrum.  Job growth, however, will be                                                                 
         dominated  by  professional  and  service  workers  groups                                                                 
         (table 4).                                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                    
       o The 10  fastest growing occupations include workers at all                                                                 
         levels of  educational attainment;  however, seven  of the                                                                 
         fastest growing are health or computer related (table 5b).                                                                 
                                                                                                                                    
       o The 10 occupations adding the most jobs account for nearly                                                                 
         one-fourth of  total employment  growth.  Systems analysts                                                                 
         is the  only occupation  on this  list that also is on the                                                                 
         list of fastest growing occupations (table 5c).                                                                            
                                                                                                                                    
    More detailed  information on  the 1992-2005  projections appears  in                                                           
 five articles  in the  November 1993  issue of the Monthly Labor Review,                                                           
 published by  the Bureau  of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor.                                                           
 A graphic  presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear                                                           
 in the forthcoming Fall 1993 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
    The Monthly  Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold                                                           
 by the  U.S. Government  Printing Office,  Washington, D.C.  20402.  The                                                           
 Review costs $25 a year; single copies are $7.  The Quarterly costs $8 a                                                           
 year;  single   copies  are   $2.75.     Make  checks   payable  to  the                                                           
 Superintendent of Documents.                                                                                                       
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
 Information from this release will be made available to sensory impaired                                                           
 individuals upon request.  Voice phone: 202-606-7828, Telecommunications                                                           
 Device for  the Deaf  (TDD) phone:   202-606-5897,  TDD Message Referral                                                           
 Phone Number:  1-800-326-2577.                                                                                                     
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Table 1.  Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990, and moderate                                     
     growth projection to 2005                                                                                                      
[Numbers in millions]                                                                                                               
Group          Level                      Change            Percent distribution            Annual growth rate                      
                                                                                                                                    
                              1975      1990      2005   1975-90   1990-2005  1975  1990  2005 1975-90 1990-2005                    
                                                                                                                                    
Total, 16 years and over      93.8     124.8     150.7     31.0      25.9    100.0 100.0 100.0    1.9     1.3                       
                                                                                                                                    
  Men, 16 years and over      56.3      68.2      79.3     11.9      11.1     60.0  54.7  52.6    1.3     1.0                       
  Women, 16 years and over    37.5      56.6      71.4     19.1      14.8     40.0  45.3  47.4    2.8     1.6                       
                                                                                                                                    
  16 to 24                    22.6      21.3      24.0     -1.4       2.8     24.1  17.0  16.0    -.4      .8                       
  25 to 54                    56.9      88.1     104.6     31.3      16.4     60.6  70.6  69.4    3.0     1.1                       
  55 and over                 14.3      15.4      22.1      1.1       6.7     15.3  12.3  14.7     .5     2.4                       
                                                                                                                                    
  White, 16 years and over    82.8     107.2     125.8     24.3      18.6     88.3  85.9  83.4    1.7     1.1                       
  Black, 16 years and over     9.3      13.5      17.8      4.2       4.3      9.9  10.8  11.8    2.5     1.9                       
  Asian and other,                                                                                                                  
      16 years and over (1)    1.7       4.1       7.2      2.4       3.1      1.8   3.3   4.8    6.2     3.8                       
                                                                                                                                    
  Hispanic, 16 and over (2)              9.6      16.8                7.2            7.7  11.1 (3)5.9     3.8                       
                                                                                                                                    
1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives.              
The historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and other" group; projections are made directly.               
                                                                                                                                    
2) Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.   Data for Hispanics are not available before 1980.                               
                                                                                                                                    
3)  This growth rate is from 1976 to 1990.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Table 2.  Civilian labor force participation rates by sex,                                                                          
age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1975, 1990,                                                                                         
and moderate growth projection to 2005                                                                                              
                                                                                                                                    
[Percent]                                                                                                                           
Group          Level                     Growth rate                                                                                
                                                                                                                                    
                          1975      1990      2005    1975-90   1990-2005                                                           
Total, 16 years and over  61.2      66.4      69.0       .5        .3                                                               
   16 to 24               64.6      67.3      69.5       .3        .2                                                               
   25 to 54               74.1      83.5      87.3       .8        .3                                                               
   55 and over            34.6      30.2      34.6      -.9        .9                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
Men, 16 years and over    77.9      76.1      75.4      -.2       -.1                                                               
   16 to 24               72.4      71.5      73.1      -.1        .1                                                               
   25 to 54               94.4      93.5      92.4      -.1       -.1                                                               
   55 and over            49.3      39.3      41.8     -1.5        .4                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
Women, 16 years and over  46.3      57.5      63.0      1.5        .6                                                               
   16 to 24               57.2      63.1      66.0       .7        .3                                                               
   25 to 54               55.1      74.1      82.3      2.0        .7                                                               
   55 and over            23.1      23.0      28.7       .0       1.5                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
White, 16 years and over  61.5      66.8      69.7       .6        .3                                                               
Black, 16 years and over  58.8      63.3      65.6       .5        .2                                                               
Asian and other,                                                                                                                    
   16 years and over (1)  62.4      64.9      66.4       .3        .2                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
Hispanic, 16 years and over (2)     67.0      69.9       .7        .3                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
1) The "Asian and other" group includes (1) Asians and Pacific                                                                      
Islanders and (2) American Indians and Alaskan Natives.  The                                                                        
historic data are derived by subtracting "Black" from the "Black and                                                                
other" group; projections are made directly.                                                                                        
                                                                                                                                    
2) Persons of Hispanic origin may be of any race.  Data for                                                                         
Hispanics are not available before 1980.                                                                                            
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Table 3.  Civilian labor force, 1990 and projected 2005, entrants,                                                                  
leavers, and net change 1990 to 2005                                                                                                
[Numbers in millions]                                                                                                               
                        Labor   Entrants  Leavers     Labor                                                                         
Group                   force                         force                                                                         
                         1990  1990-2005  1990-2005   2005                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
Total                   124.8     55.8      29.9     150.7                                                                          
  Men                    68.2     28.2      17.1      79.3                                                                          
  Women                  56.6     27.6      12.8      71.4                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  White, non-Hispanic    98.0     36.4      24.4     110.0                                                                          
    Men                  53.8     18.0      14.2      57.5                                                                          
    Women                44.2     18.5      10.2      52.5                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Black                  13.3      7.3       3.1      17.4                                                                          
    Men                   6.6      3.5       1.6       8.5                                                                          
    Women                 6.7      3.8       1.6       8.9                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Hispanic                9.6      8.8       1.6      16.8                                                                          
    Men                   5.8      5.1        .9       9.9                                                                          
    Women                 3.8      3.7        .6       6.9                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Asian and other         3.9      3.4        .7       6.5                                                                          
    Men                   2.1      1.7        .4       3.4                                                                          
    Women                 1.8      1.7        .3       3.1                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Share [in percent]                                                                                                                  
Total                   100.0    100.0     100.0     100.0                                                                          
  Men                    54.7     50.5      57.3      52.6                                                                          
  Women                  45.3     49.5      42.7      47.4                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  White, non-Hispanic    78.5     65.3      81.8      73.0                                                                          
    Men                  43.1     32.2      47.6      38.2                                                                          
    Women                35.4     33.1      34.2      34.8                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Black                  10.7     13.0      10.5      11.6                                                                          
    Men                   5.3      6.2       5.2       5.7                                                                          
    Women                 5.4      6.8       5.3       5.9                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Hispanic                7.7     15.7      5.2       11.1                                                                          
    Men                   4.6      9.1      3.1        6.6                                                                          
    Women                 3.1      6.6      2.1        4.6                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
  Asian and other         3.1      6.0      2.4        4.3                                                                          
    Men                   1.7      3.0      1.3        2.2                                                                          
    Women                 1.4      3.0      1.1        2.1                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
NOTE:  Unlike the other labor force tables, the columns in this                                                                     
table are additive.  For a discussion of how the number of entrants                                                                 
and leavers were calculated, see the November 1991 Monthly Labor                                                                    
Review.                                                                                                                             
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Table 4.  Employment by major industry division, 1975, 1990, and projected to 2005                                                  
[Numbers in millions]                                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                    
              Industry                                  2005          Change    Change, 1975-2005                                   
                                  1975   1990    Low  Moderate  High 1975-90   Low  Moderate  High                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Nonfarm wage and salary (1)     76.7  109.3  122.8   132.6   139.5   32.6    13.5    23.3   30.2                                  
    Goods-producing               22.6   25.0   22.9    25.2    26.4    2.4    -2.1      .3    1.4                                  
      Mining                        .8     .7     .6      .7      .7     .0     -.1      .0     .0                                  
      Construction                 3.5    5.1    5.6     6.1     6.5    1.6      .4      .9    1.3                                  
      Manufacturing               18.3   19.1   16.7    18.5    19.2    0.8    -2.4     -.6     .1                                  
        Durable manufacturing     10.7   11.1    9.5    10.5    10.9    0.5    -1.6     -.6    -.2                                  
        Nondurable manufacturing   7.7    8.0    7.3     8.0     8.3    0.3    -0.7      .0     .3                                  
                                                                                                                                    
    Service-producing             54.1   84.4   99.9    107.4  113.2   30.3    15.5    23.0   28.8                                  
      Transportation,                                                                                                               
       communications, utilities   4.5    5.8    6.2      6.7    7.0    1.3      .4      .9    1.2                                  
      Wholesale trade              4.4    6.2    6.7      7.2    7.6    1.8      .5     1.0    1.4                                  
      Retail trade                12.6   19.7   23.3     24.8   25.9    7.1     3.6     5.1    6.2                                  
      Finance, insurance, and                                                                                                       
         real estate               4.2    6.7    7.6      8.1    8.5    2.6      .9     1.4    1.8                                  
      Services (1)                13.6   27.6   36.2     39.1   41.1   14.0     8.6    11.5   13.5                                  
      Government                  14.7   18.3   19.9     21.5   23.1    3.6     1.6     3.2    4.8                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Agriculture (2)                  3.5    3.3    3.0      3.1    3.2    -.2     -.3     -.2    -.1                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Private households               1.4    1.0     .6       .7     .7    -.3     -.4     -.3    -.3                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid                                                                                          
     family workers (3)            6.2    9.0   10.4     10.8   11.1    2.8     1.5     1.8    2.1                                  
                                                                                                                                    
Total (4)                         87.7  122.6  136.8    147.2  154.5   34.9    14.2    24.6   32.0                                  
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
               Percent distribution of wage                          Annual rate of change                                          
               and salary employment                                                                                                
                                                        2005          Change    Change, 1975-2005                                   
                                  1975   1990    Low  Moderate  High 1975-90   Low  Moderate  High                                  
  Nonfarm wage and salary (1)    100.0  100.0  100.0   100.0   100.0    2.4      .8     1.3    1.6                                  
    Goods-producing               29.5   22.8   18.6    19.0    18.9    0.7     -.6      .1     .4                                  
      Mining                       1.0     .7     .5      .5      .5    -.4    -1.1     -.4    -.2                                  
      Construction                 4.6    4.7    4.5     4.6     4.6    2.5      .5     1.1    1.6                                  
      Manufacturing               23.9   17.5   13.6    14.0    13.8    0.3     -.9     -.2     .0                                  
        Durable manufacturing     13.9   10.2    7.7     7.9     7.8     .3    -1.1     -.4    -.1                                  
        Nondurable manufacturing  10.0    7.3    5.9     6.0     5.9     .3     -.6      .0     .2                                  
                                                                                                                                    
    Service-producing             70.5   77.2   81.4    81.0    81.1    3.0     1.1     1.6    2.0                                  
      Transportation,                                                                                                               
        communications, utilities  5.9    5.3    5.1     5.0     5.0    1.7      .4      .9    1.2                                  
      Wholesale trade              5.8    5.7    5.4     5.4     5.4    2.3      .5     1.0    1.3                                  
      Retail trade                16.5   18.0   19.0    18.7    18.5    3.0     1.1     1.6    1.8                                  
      Finance, insurance, and                                                                                                       
         real estate               5.4    6.2    6.2     6.1     6.1    3.3      .8     1.3    1.6                                  
      Services (1)                17.8   25.2   29.5    29.4    29.5    4.8     1.8     2.3    2.7                                  
      Government                  19.2   16.8   16.2    16.2    16.5    1.5      .6     1.1    1.5                                  
  Agriculture (2)                 (na)   (na)   (na)    (na)    (na)    -.4     -.7     -.4    -.2                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Private households              (na)   (na)   (na)    (na)    (na)   -1.9    -2.9    -2.4   -2.1                                  
                                                                                                                                    
  Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid                                                                                          
     family workers (3)           (na)   (na)   (na)    (na)    (na)    2.5     1.0     1.2    1.4                                  
                                                                                                                                    
Total    (4)                      (na)   (na)   (na)    (na)    (na)    2.3      .7     1.2    1.6                                  
                                                                                                                                    
1) Excludes SIC 074,5,8 (agricultural services) and 99                                                                              
(nonclassifiable establishments), and is therefore not exactly                                                                      
comparable with data published in Employment and Earnings.                                                                          
                                                                                                                                    
2) Excludes government wage and salary workers, and includes private                                                                
sector SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                    
3) Excludes SIC 08, 09 (forestry and fisheries).                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
4) Wage and salary data are from the BLS Current Employment                                                                         
Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas                                                                             
self-employed, unpaid family worker, agricultural, and private                                                                      
household data are from the Current Population Survey (household                                                                    
survey), which counts workers.                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                    
NOTE: (na) indicates not available.                                                                                                 
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
Table 5.  Employment by major occupational group, 1990 and projected                                                                
2005, moderate alternative projection, and percent change 1975-90                                                                   
and 1990-2005                                                                                                                       
[Numbers  in millions]                                                                                                              
                  Occupation                      1990      2005                      Percent change                                
                                                                                                                                    
                                            Number   Percent   Number    Percent   1975-90   1990-2005                              
                                                                                                                                    
    Total, all occupations                  122.6     100.0     147.2     100.0      37.4      20.1                                 
                                                                                                                                    
Executive, administrative, and managerial    12.5      10.2      15.9      10.8      83.1      27.4                                 
Professional specialty                       15.8      12.9      20.9      14.2      59.9      32.3                                 
Technicians and related support               4.2       3.4       5.8       3.9      75.7      36.9                                 
Marketing  and sales                         14.1      11.5      17.5      11.9      55.1      24.1                                 
Administrative support occupations,                                                                                                 
  including clerical                         22.0      17.9      24.8      16.9      33.9      13.1                                 
Service occupations                          19.2      15.7      24.8      16.9      36.1      29.2                                 
Agricultural, forestry, fishing, and related                                                                                        
  occupations                                 3.5       2.9       3.7       2.5      -9.8       4.5                                 
Precision production, craft, and repair      14.1      11.5      15.9      10.8      28.9      12.6                                 
Operators, fabricators, and laborers         17.2      14.1      18.0      12.2       6.7       4.2                                 
                                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                    
NOTE:  The 1990 and 2005 employment data and the projected change                                                                   
1990-2005 are derived from the industry-occupation employment                                                                       
matrixes for each year.  The data on 1975-90 percent change were                                                                    
derived from the Current Population Survey (CPS) because a                                                                          
comparable industry-occupation matrix for 1975 is not available.                                                                    
The CPS data represent estimates of employed persons and exclude the                                                                
estimates of persons with more than one job that are included in the                                                                
industry-occupation employment matrices.  The CPS exclusion of dual                                                                 
jobholders affects the employment levels and trends of some                                                                         
occupational groups more than others.  Therefore, the resulting                                                                     
comparisions of change between 1975-90 and 1990-2005 are only                                                                       
broadly indicative of trends.