For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Wednesday, September 6, 2023 USDL-23-1941 

Technical information: (202) 691-5700 • ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp 

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2022−2032 

The U.S. economy is projected to add almost 4.7 million jobs from 2022 to 2032, the U.S. Bureau of 

Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase to 169.1 million and 

grow 0.3 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.2-percent annual growth recorded over the 

2012−22 decade. (See chart 1.) 

Projected employment growth is driven by labor force growth, which in turn is constrained by 

population growth. Total population is projected to grow slightly slower than previous decades, at 0.7 

percent annually over the projections period, although population growth is concentrated among 

Occupational Outlook Handbook

The BLS projections are the foundation of the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), one of the 

nation's most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects BLS employment projections 

for the 2022–32 decade. The updated OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

 

164.5

169.1

125

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Millions

Chart 1. Total employment, 2002–22 and projected 2032

Note: Total employment includes wage and salary employment and self-employment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2- 

individuals aged 75 and over because of the aging of the baby-boom generation. Because older age 

groups have lower labor force participation rates than prime age workers, overall labor force 

participation rates are projected to decline. Despite all these constraints, real Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) is expected to grow 1.9 percent over the 2022−32 decade, remaining largely consistent with the 

growth over the 2002−12 and 2012−22 periods. 

The health care and social assistance sector is projected to not only grow most rapidly of any sector, but 

it is also projected to create about 45 percent of all the projected job gains from 2022 to 2032. Various 

healthcare occupations that are involved with the increased care of the aging population are projected to 

experience large and rapid employment increases. Home health and personal care aides, nurse 

practitioners, and medical and health services managers are three occupations that are projected to 

experience both large increases in employment and rapid growth. 

The computer and mathematical occupational group is also projected to experience much faster than

average employment growth. The expanding digital presence of businesses and consumers will produce 

a massive amount of data that these workers collect, organize, analyze, and protect. Employment in 

occupations such as data scientists, statisticians, and information security analysts is projected to grow 

more than 11 times the average rate. 

Highlights of the BLS 2022−32 projections for the population and labor force, macroeconomy, industry 

employment, and occupational employment are included below. 

Population and Labor Force

• The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to increase by 18.7 million to a level of 282.6 

million in 2032, which is less than the 20.7 million increase that occurred over the 2012−22 decade. 

The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow 0.7 percent annually over the 2022−32 

decade, slowing slightly from the 0.8-percent annual growth rate that occurred in the decade from 

2012 to 2022. Population growth rates have been slowing for several decades; the projected 0.7-

percent annual growth represents one of the slowest growth rates in the data series’ history. (See 

chart 2.)

• The slower birth rates of the 1970’s will cause the population ages 55 to 64 to decrease much faster 

than any other age group. Meanwhile, the 65 and older age group will experience fast growth as all 

baby boomers age into that category by 2032. This age group’s projected 14.4 million increase in 

population accounts for over three quarters of the overall projected population growth. Of that 14.4 

million increase, about 10.6 million comes from the 75 and over age group, as most of the baby 

boomers age into that bracket. (See chart 3.) 
-3- 

• Slower projected growth in the population is expected to constrain growth in the civilian labor force 

over the projections period. The civilian labor force is expected to increase from 164.3 million in 

2022 to 170.7 million in 2032, an increase of almost 6.5 million. This translates to a projected annual 

growth rate of 0.4 percent, slower than the 0.6-percent annual growth rate exhibited during the 

2012−22 decade.

• The labor force participation rate is projected to fall from 62.2 percent in 2022 to 60.4 percent in 

2032. The principal factor driving the projected decline in the labor force participation rate is a 

greater share of individuals over the age of 65. Despite this age group having the highest projected 

labor force participation rate increases over the projections period, the participation rate of this age 

group is still projected to be much lower than that of the prime working age group, those ages 25 to 

54. 

• The participation rate for prime working age women, ages 25-54, is projected to increase slightly 

from 76.4 percent in 2022 to 76.7 in 2032. For prime working age men, however, the participation 

rate is projected to decline 0.2 percent annually in the 2022−32 decade, from 88.6 percent to 86.7 

percent. 

0.8

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1972 1977 1982 1987 1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Percent

Chart 2. Population, 10-year compound annual average growth rates,

1972─2022 and projected 2022─32

Note: Reference to population in the text and charts refers to the civilian noninstitutional population, 16 years and over.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-4- 

Macroeconomy

• Real GDP is projected to grow 1.9 percent annually over the 2022−32 decade. This is slightly lower 

than the 2012−22 decade’s annual rate of 2.1 percent, but the same as the annual rate during the 

2002−12 decade. However, the projected growth rate in the 2022−32 decade is much lower than the 

3.0 percent and above rates seen during the 1980s and 90s, when population and labor force growth 

was faster. (See chart 4.) 

Industry Employment

• Total employment is projected to grow 0.3 percent annually from 164.5 million in 2022 to 169.1 

million in 2032. This projected growth is much slower than the 1.2-percent annual employment 

growth in the 2012−22 decade, which was marked by strong recovery growth following the 2007−09 

Great Recession and 2020 COVID-19 recession.

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1992 1997 2002 2007 2012 2017 2022 2027 2032

Participation Rate

Population (in millions)

Chart 3. Population and Labor Force Participation Rate, by select 

age group, 1992─2022 and projected 2022─32

Population, 55-64 Population, 65-74 Population, 75+

Participation Rate, 55-64 Participation Rate, 65-74 Participation Rate, 75+

Note: Reference to population in the text and charts refers to the civilian noninstitutional population, 16 years and over.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Actual Projected
-5- 

• The health care and social assistance sector is projected to add about 2.1 million jobs from 2022 to 

2032, the most of any sector and about 45 percent of all new jobs. (See chart 5.) This sector is also 

projected to grow faster than any other sector, growing at an annual rate of 1.0 percent. Four of the 

10 fastest growing industries over the projections period come from within this sector, with the 

individual and family services industry projected to grow the fastest of those four–at an annual rate 

of 2.2 percent. Employment growth in the health care and social assistance sector is expected to be 

driven by both the aging population and a higher prevalence of chronic conditions, such as heart 

disease, cancer, and diabetes.

• The computer systems design and related services industry is the eighth fastest growing industry, 

growing at a rate of 1.8 percent annually over the 2022−32 decade. This industry is also seen adding 

474,800 jobs over the projections period, the second most of any industry. Employment 

opportunities in the computer systems design and related services industry are expected to arise 

because of demand for information technology and cybersecurity products and services.

• Growth in e-commerce is expected to drive employment growth in the transportation and 

warehousing sector. BLS projects this sector to grow 0.8 percent annually from 2022 to 2032, adding 

close to 570,000 jobs over that period. The couriers and messengers industry together with the 

warehousing and storage industry account for about 80 percent of this sector’s projected job growth.

3.6

3.4

1.9

2.1

1.9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1982─92 1992─2002 2002─12 2012─22 2022─32 projected

Percent

Chart 4. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 10-year compound 

annual growth rates, 1982─2022 and projected 2022─32

Source: Historical data are from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. 

Projected data are from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
-6- 

• The continued consumer shift to online shopping is projected to drive the loss of 529,100 jobs in the 

retail trade sector. While omnichannel strategies such as buy online pick-up in store (BOPIS) may 

support some employment, employment losses within this sector are still expected.

• The manufacturing sector is projected to lose 113,400 jobs over the 2022−32 decade as 

manufacturers continue to automate processes to improve production efficiency and throughput. 

However, stronger demand for electric vehicle batteries and energy battery storage systems is 

expected to result in rapid employment growth in battery production. That growth is evident in the 

other electrical equipment and component manufacturing industry, which is the manufacturing 

industry with the fastest growth at a rate of 3.0 percent annually over the projections period, gaining 

52,700 jobs over the decade.

Occupational Employment

• Healthcare support occupations are projected to grow the fastest of all occupational groups, at 15.4 

percent from 2022 to 2032. (See chart 6.) In addition to growing rapidly, one occupation from this 

group, home health and personal care aides, is also projected to experience the largest increase in 

new jobs of any occupation over the 2022−32 projections period. Projected to gain 804,600 jobs, this 

occupation is projected to account for approximately 1 of every 6 new jobs, and by 2032, would 

represent the largest occupation in the economy. The growing elderly population, which typically 

has increased healthcare needs compared to younger groups, will in turn increase demand for 

caregiving and therapy services.

Chart 5. Employment change by industry sector, projected 2022–32

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.0

Retail trade

Utilities

Mining

Federal government

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

State and local government

Construction

Other services

Leisure and hospitality

Educational services

Financial activities

Professional and business services

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Health care and social assistance

-529.1

-14.4

-14.5

-43.9

-84.8

-113.4

65.3

114.9

100.8

350.6

129.6

349.3

1,420.2

201.5

569.9

2,092.0

Service providing

Goods producing

Total nonagriculture 

wage and salary annual 

growth = 0.3%

Wage and salary employment compound annual 

rate of change, projected 2022–32 (percent)

Wage and salary employment change, 

projected 2022–32 (in thousands)

Note: Nonagriculture wage and salary employment includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, except private households, which is 

from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Logging workers are excluded.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-7- 

• As healthcare facilities increasingly use team-based healthcare models, demand will increase for 

nurse practitioners (44.5-percent growth) and physician assistants (26.5-percent growth) to provide 

patient care that would otherwise be provided by a doctor. Nurse practitioners also have the largest 

projected job growth for occupations that typically require a master’s degree. 

• Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to experience 15.2-percent growth from 

2022−32. The marked increase in the number and severity of cyberattacks and data breaches on U.S. 

businesses is expected to lead to greater demand for cybersecurity products and services. This 

increase, in turn, will fuel demand for the information security analysts occupation, which is 

projected to grow 31.5 percent over the 10-year period between 2022 and 2032, making it the fifth 

fastest growing occupation in the economy. (See chart 7.)

• The projected 2.6-percent decline in employment over the projections period in the sales and related 

occupational group reflects the continued consumer shift to online shopping. Cashiers, an occupation 

within this group, are currently the fifth largest occupation in the economy and projected to be 

significantly affected by these changes in the retail sector, shedding a total of 348,100 jobs, more 

than any other occupation in the economy.

-6.2

-3.2

-2.6

-1.9

0.3

1.7

1.7

2.3

2.5

3.6

3.8

5.2

5.4

5.4

5.6

5.9

6.1

6.1

7.8

8.0

15.2

15.4

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20

Office and administrative support

Production

Sales and related

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Protective service

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Food preparation and serving related

Educational instruction and library

Construction and extraction

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Architecture and engineering

Management

Transportation and material moving

Business and financial operations

Legal

Personal care and service

Life, physical, and social science

Community and social service

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Computer and mathematical

Healthcare support

Chart 6. Projected percent change in employment, by 

occupational group, projected 2022–32

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Total, all occupations = 2.8%
-8- 

• The expanding digital presence of businesses and consumers alike is expected to result in a 

significant increase in the volume of data generated. Employment of data scientists, statisticians, 

actuaries, and operations research analysts are each projected to grow more than 20.0 percent as 

demand surges for workers who can model, interpret, and analyze the ever-growing amount of data. 

• As renewable energy generation expands due to lower production costs, government policies, and 

technological advancements in renewable energy infrastructure and battery storage, demand for the 

occupations tied to their operation will expand as well. Employment of wind turbine service 

technicians is projected to grow 44.9 percent from 2022 to 2032, the fastest growth of any 

occupation for the projections decade, while solar photovoltaic installers are projected to grow 22.3 

percent. However, because these are small occupations, the fast projected growth is expected to 

result in only about 5,000 new jobs for wind turbine service technicians and about 6,600 new jobs 

for solar photovoltaic installers over the projections decade.

• Despite the overall decline in employment in production occupations, driven by automation of 

production activities, some occupations employed in this group are projected to experience strong 

employment growth over the projections period. The combination of strong demand for 

semiconductors and incentives provided through the Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce 

Semiconductors (CHIPS) and Science Act is expected to lead to an 8.0-percent increase in 

employment in semiconductor processing technicians over the projections period.

More Information 

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about more than 500 detailed 

occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. 

Chart 7. Ten fastest growing occupations, projected 2022–32

25.7

26.1

26.5

26.7

28.4

31.5

31.6

35.2

44.5

44.9

Software developers

Physical therapist assistants

Physician assistants

Epidemiologists

Medical and health services managers

Information security analysts

Statisticians

Data scientists

Nurse practitioners

Wind turbine service technicians

410.4

26.3

39.3

2.7

144.7

53.2

10.5

59.4

118.6

5.0

Median annual 

wage, May 2022(1)

Employment change, 

projected 2022–32 (in thousands)

Percent employment change, 

projected 2022–32

Footnotes:

(1) Data are from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wage data cover non-farm 

wage and salary workers and do not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, or household workers.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-9- 

Each profile features the 2022–32 projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work 

activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more.

• The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. A mobile version of the OOH is available for iOS 

(https://apps.apple.com/us/app/careerinfo/id1476300397) and Android 

(https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=gov.dol.ooh_occupational_handbook&hl=en_US&gl

=US) devices.

• Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm. 

• Detailed information on the 2022–32 labor force and macroeconomy projections and on the 2022–32 

industry and occupation projections will appear in two separate Monthly Labor Review articles in 

September 2023. 

• Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections data are available online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm. 

• Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm. 

If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access 

telecommunications relay services.
Technical Note

BLS publishes projections for the labor force, the 

macroeconomy, industry output and employment, and 

occupational employment. More information is 

available online:

• Labor force: https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/laborforce.htm

• Macroeconomy: 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregateeconomy.htm

• Industry output and employment: 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-andemp.htm

• Occupational employment: 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupationaldata.htm

The projections data provide an overview of 

expected changes in the economy over a decade. The 

projections focus on long-term structural trends of the 

economy and do not try to anticipate future business 

cycle activity. To meet this objective, specific 

assumptions are made about the labor force, 

macroeconomy, industry output and employment, and 

occupational employment. Critical to the production of 

these projections is the assumption of full employment 

for the economy in the projected year. The projections 

are not intended to be a forecast of what the future will 

be but instead are a description of what would be 

expected to happen under these specific assumptions 

and circumstances. When these assumptions are not 

realized, actual values will differ from projections.

Projections methods are heavily based on historical 

relationships in the data, but BLS also conducts 

research on factors that are expected to impact 

employment, particularly those which may not be 

reflected in historical data, such as new technologies 

and legislation. Projections are always uncertain, and 

the exact impact of developments such as new 

technologies on the labor market ten years out is 

impossible to predict with precision. BLS issues new 

projections annually to incorporate new data, research, 

and analysis. BLS projections assume that 

technological change impacts the labor market 

gradually, not suddenly. This assumption has been 

supported by the historical record; see Michael J. 

Handel, "Growth trends for selected occupations 

considered at risk from automation," Monthly Labor 

Review, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, July 

2022, https://doi.org/10.21916/mlr.2022.21. 

The difference between projected changes in the 

labor force and in employment does not necessarily 

imply a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS projections 

assume labor market equilibrium; that is, one in which 

labor supply meets labor demand except for some level 

of frictional unemployment. In addition, the 

employment and labor force measures use different 

definitional and statistical concepts. For example, 

employment is a count of jobs, and one person may 

hold more than one job. Labor force is a count of 

employed people, and a person is counted only once 

regardless of how many jobs they hold. 

For more information, visit the Employment 

Projections Methodology page online at 

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm. 

Frequently asked questions about the employment 

projections are online at 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-askedquestions.htm. 

Users and Uses

 The BLS projections are used by high school and 

college students, their teachers and parents, jobseekers, 

career counselors, and guidance specialists to 

determine jobs in demand. The projections also are 

used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and 

area projections that, together with the national 

projections, are widely used by policymakers to make 

decisions about education and training, funding 

allocations, and program offerings. These projections 

of jobs in demand help improve the alignment between 

education and training and the hiring needs of 

employers. In addition, other federal agencies, 

researchers, and academics use the projections to 

understand trends in the economy and labor market. 

 Projections of industry and occupational 

employment are prepared by each state, using input 

from the BLS national projections. State projections 

data are available at Projections Central 

https://www.projectionscentral.org.