Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212 

Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp USDL 05-2276 

Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 For release: 10 A.M. EST 

Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 Wednesday, December 7, 2005 

 

 

 BLS RELEASES 2004-14 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS 

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released 

projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely composition 

of the workforce pursuing those jobs. 

The 10-year projections—covering the 2004–14 decade—of economic growth, 

employment by industry and occupation, and labor force are widely used in career guidance, 

in planning education and training programs, and in studying long-range employment 

trends. These projections, which are updated every 2 years, continue a nearly 60-year 

tradition of providing advice to individuals who are entering the job market, changing 

careers, or making further education and training choices. 

Employment 

Over the 2004–14 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 18.9 million 

jobs, or 13 percent. Over the previous decade (1994-2004), total employment grew at the 

same annual rate and increased by 16.4 million jobs. 

Industry employment 

• Employment growth will continue to be concentrated in the service-providing sector 

of the economy. Educational services, health care and social assistance, and 

professional and business services represent the industry sectors with the strongest 

employment growth; these sectors are projected to grow more than twice as fast as 

the overall economy. (See table 1.) 

 

• Construction employment is projected to grow, but at a slower pace than during the 

previous decade (1994-2004). Manufacturing employment, however, is expected to 

decline by 5 percent, much less than the 16 percent decline that occurred in the 

United States 

Department 

of Labor 
previous decade. Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing industries is 

expected to decrease from 15 percent to 13 percent of total employment. 

• The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, led 

by employment services, local government education, and offices of physicians, are 

in the service-providing sector. (See table 3a.) 

• Eight out of the 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment 

declines, including cut and sew apparel manufacturing, are in the manufacturing 

sector. (See table 3b.) 

Occupational employment 

• Professional and related occupations and service occupations—two groups on 

opposite ends of the educational and earnings ranges—are projected to add the most 

jobs, accounting for 6 out of 10 new jobs created over the 2004-14 period. (See 

table 2.) 

• Business and financial operations occupations, professional and related occupations, 

and service occupations are projected to grow faster than the 13 percent average for 

all occupations. 

• Production occupations and farming, fishing, and forestry occupations are projected 

to lose employment over the period. 

• Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information 

technology) occupations. (See table 3c.) 

• Five of the 10 occupations adding the most jobs are service occupations. (See table 

3d.) 

Education and training categories 

• An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of postsecondary 

education or training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. (See table 3c.) 

• Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary 

education or training for 5 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth. (See 

table 3d.) 

Labor force 

• The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 14.7 million over the 2004–14 

decade, reaching 162.1 million by 2014. This 10 percent increase is less than the 

12.5-percent increase over the previous decade, 1994–2004, when the labor force 
grew by 16.3 million. (See table 4.) The labor force will change in composition, as 

a result of changes in both the composition of the population and in the rates of labor 

force participation across demographic groups. 

• The projected labor force growth will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom 

generation—persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2014, baby-boomers will be 

ages 50 to 68 years, and this age group will grow significantly over the 2004–14 

period. The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 55-

and-older group projected to grow by 49.1 percent, nearly 5 times the 10 percent 

growth projected for the overall labor force. Youths—those between the ages of 16 

and 24—will decline in numbers and lose share of the labor force, from 15.1 percent 

in 2004 to 13.7 percent in 2014. Prime-age workers—those between the ages of 25 

and 54—also will lose share of the labor force, from 69.3 percent in 2004 to 65.2 

percent in 2014. The 55-and-older age group, on the other hand, is projected to gain 

share of the labor force, from 15.6 percent to 21.2 percent. 

• Over the 2004–14 projection period, the number of women in the labor force is 

projected to grow by 10.9 percent, faster than the 9.1-percent growth projected for 

men. As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected to increase from 46.4 

percent in 2004 to 46.8 percent by 2014. In contrast, men's share is projected to 

decline from 53.6 percent to 53.2 percent over the decade. 

• By 2014, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 25.8 million, due to faster 

population growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates, and 

increased immigration levels. Despite relatively slow growth, whites will remain the 

largest group, composing 80.2 percent of the labor force. Blacks will constitute 12.0 

percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing race group, 

climbing to 5.1 percent of the labor force in 2014. 

A note on labor shortages in the context of long-term economic projections 

The measures upon which the employment projections and labor force projections are based 

are different. The former is a count of jobs and the latter a count of individuals. Users of 

these data should not assume that the difference between the projected increase in the labor 

force and the projected increase in employment implies a labor shortage or surplus. The 

BLS projections assume a labor market in equilibrium, i.e., one where labor supply meets 

labor demand except for some degree of frictional unemployment. For a discussion of the 

basic projection methodology, see "A summary of BLS projections to 2014," Norman C. 

Saunders, November 2005 Monthly Labor Review. For a discussion of labor shortages in 

the context of long-term projection models, see "Employment projections to 2012: concepts 

and context," Michael W. Horrigan, February 2004 Monthly Labor Review. 

Notes 

More detailed information on the 2004–14 projections appears in five articles in the 

November 2005 issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor. The Review is available online at: 
www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/welcome.htm. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the 

projections will appear in the forthcoming Winter 2005–06 Occupational Outlook Quarterly. 

The Quarterly is available online at: www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm. 

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. 

Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49 a year; single 

copies are $15. The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are $6. For additional 

information, contact the Superintendent of Documents at: www.access.gpo.gov. 

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon 

request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339. 
1994 2004 2014 1994-2004 2004-14 1994-2004 2004-14 1994 2004 

Total1 129,245.9 145,612.3 164,539.9 16,366.4 18,927.6 12.7 13.0 100.0 100.0 

Nonagriculture wage and salary2 114,983.8 132,191.7 150,876.9 17,207.9 18,685.2 15.0 14.1 89.0 90.8 Goods-producing, excluding agriculture 22,691.6 21,817.3 21,787.3 -874.3 -30.0 -3.9 -0.1 17.6 15.0 Mining 576.5 523.2 477.4 -53.3 -45.8 -9.2 -8.8 0.4 0.4 Construction 5,094.9 6,964.5 7,756.9 1,869.6 792.4 36.7 11.4 3.9 4.8 Manufacturing 17,020.2 14,329.6 13,553.0 -2,690.6 -776.6 -15.8 -5.4 13.2 9.8 Service-providing 92,292.2 110,374.4 129,089.6 18,082.2 18,715.2 19.6 17.0 71.4 75.8 Utilities 689.4 570.1 562.6 -119.3 -7.5 -17.3 -1.3 0.5 0.4 Wholesale trade 5,247.5 5,654.9 6,130.8 407.4 475.9 7.8 8.4 4.1 3.9 Retail trade 13,491.1 15,034.5 16,683.2 1,543.4 1,648.7 11.4 11.0 10.4 10.3 Transportation and warehousing 3,701.1 4,250.0 4,755.9 548.9 505.9 14.8 11.9 2.9 2.9 Information 2,738.6 3,138.3 3,502.1 399.7 363.8 14.6 11.6 2.1 2.2 Financial activities 6,866.9 8,051.9 8,901.3 1,185.0 849.4 17.3 10.5 5.3 5.5 Professional and business services 12,173.9 16,413.7 20,979.9 4,239.8 4,566.2 34.8 27.8 9.4 11.3 Educational services 1,894.8 2,766.4 3,664.5 871.6 898.1 46.0 32.5 1.5 1.9 Health care and social assistance 10,911.9 14,187.2 18,482.1 3,275.3 4,294.9 30.0 30.3 8.4 9.7 Leisure and hospitality 10,099.8 12,479.1 14,693.8 2,379.3 2,214.7 23.6 17.7 7.8 8.6 Other services 5,202.1 6,209.9 6,943.4 1,007.8 733.5 19.4 11.8 4.0 4.3 Federal government 3,018.0 2,727.5 2,770.9 -290.5 43.4 -9.6 1.6 2.3 1.9 State and local government 16,257.1 18,890.9 21,019.1 2,633.8 2,128.2 16.2 11.3 12.6 13.0 Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting3 2,890.1 2,139.9 1,910.0 -750.2 -229.9 -26.0 -10.7 2.2 1.5 

Agriculture wage and salary 1,381.0 1,149.2 1,089.7 -231.8 -59.5 -16.8 -5.2 1.1 0.8 Agriculture self-employed and unpaid family workers 1,509.1 990.7 820.3 -518.4 -170.4 -34.4 -17.2 1.2 0.7 Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid family worker 9,360.0 9,556.4 10,011.9 196.4 455.5 2.1 4.8 7.2 6.6 Secondary wage and salary jobs in agriculture and private household industries 4 182.0 137.6 126.8 -44.4 -10.8 -24.4 -7.8 0.1 0.1 

Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid family worker 5 1,830.0 1,586.7 1,614.3 -243.3 27.6 -13.3 1.7 1.4 1.1 

5 Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agric

are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

2 Includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics survey, except private households, which is from the Current Population Survey. Logging workers are exclud3 Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from Current Employment Statistics survey. Government wage 4 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries.

Percent change

Table 1. Employment by major industry sector, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014(Numbers in thousands)

Industry sector

Employment Numeric Change Percent dist
Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2004 and projected 2014

2004 2014 2004 2014

Total, all occupations 145,612.3 164,539.9 100.0 100.0 18,927.6 13.0

Management occupations 9,114.7 10,146.8 6.3 6.2 1,032.0 11.3

Business and financial operations occupations 5,872.8 6,995.5 4.0 4.3 1,122.7 19.1

Professional and related occupations 28,544.0 34,590.2 19.6 21.0 6,046.3 21.2

 Computer and mathematical science occupations 3,152.8 4,119.8 2.2 2.5 967.0 30.7

 Architecture and engineering occupations 2,519.9 2,834.7 1.7 1.7 314.8 12.5

 Life, physical, and social science occupations 1,315.7 1,531.6 0.9 0.9 215.9 16.4

 Community and social services occupations 2,317.1 2,800.2 1.6 1.7 483.1 20.8

 Legal occupations 1,220.2 1,414.2 0.8 0.9 194.0 15.9

 Education, training, and library occupations 8,698.0 10,438.0 6.0 6.3 1,740.0 20.0

 Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 2,515.0 2,890.3 1.7 1.8 375.3 14.9

 Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 6,805.3 8,561.4 4.7 5.2 1,756.1 25.8

Service occupations 27,672.6 32,929.7 19.0 20.0 5,257.2 19.0

 Healthcare support occupations 3,492.3 4,656.2 2.4 2.8 1,163.9 33.3

 Protective service occupations 3,137.6 3,578.0 2.2 2.2 440.3 14.0

 Food preparation and serving related occupations 10,739.2 12,453.2 7.4 7.6 1,714.0 16.0

 Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 5,582.2 6,529.7 3.8 4.0 947.5 17.0

 Personal care and service occupations 4,721.2 5,712.7 3.2 3.5 991.4 21.0

Sales and related occupations 15,330.2 16,806.4 10.5 10.2 1,476.3 9.6

Office and administrative support occupations 23,907.0 25,287.3 16.4 15.4 1,380.3 5.8

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,025.9 1,013.0 0.7 0.6 -12.9 -1.3

Construction and extraction occupations 7,738.5 8,669.4 5.3 5.3 930.9 12.0

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,747.5 6,404.5 3.9 3.9 657.0 11.4

Production occupations 10,561.7 10,483.1 7.3 6.4 -78.6 -0.7

Transportation and material moving occupations 10,097.6 11,214.0 6.9 6.8 1,116.4 11.1

(Numbers in thousands)

2004 2014 Number Percent

Employment services 3,470.3 5,050.2 1,579.9 45.5

Local government educational services 7,762.5 8,545.5 783.0 10.1

Local government, excluding education and hospitals 5,485.6 6,249.3 763.7 13.9

Offices of physicians 2,053.9 2,813.4 759.5 37.0

Full-service restaurants 4,226.4 4,927.8 701.4 16.6

General medical and surgical hospitals, private 4,050.9 4,699.0 648.1 16.0

Limited-service eating places 3,726.7 4,318.6 591.9 15.9

Home health care services 773.2 1,310.3 537.1 69.5

Colleges, universities, and professional schools, private 1,377.5 1,849.8 472.3 34.3

Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 779.0 1,250.2 471.2 60.5 1

 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.

(Numbers in thousands)

2004 2014 Number Percent

Wired telecommunications carriers 548.4 380.1 -168.3 -30.7

Cut and sew apparel manufacturing 219.9 80.0 -139.9 -63.6

Printing and related support activities 665.0 600.1 -64.9 -9.8

Fabric mills 115.7 60.0 -55.7 -48.1

Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing 452.8 399.9 -52.9 -11.7

Crop production, primary job 530.2 482.1 -48.1 -9.1

Basic chemical manufacturing 156.1 110.0 -46.1 -29.5

Rubber product manufacturing 173.0 132.8 -40.2 -23.2

Foundries 165.4 127.8 -37.6 -22.7

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing 212.1 175.0 -37.1 -17.5 1

 Data are from the National Employment Matrix.

Table 3a. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth, 2004-14 1

NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent because of rounding.

(Numbers in thousands)

Occupational group

Employment Change

Number Percent distribution Number Percent

Industry Employment Change

Industry Employment Change

Table 3b. The 10 detailed industries with the largest wage and salary employment declines, 2004-14 1
2004 2014 Number Percent

624 974 350 56231 357 126 55387 589 202 52

62 93 31 50

460 682 222 48

59 85 26 44

158 226 68 43340 486 146 43267 382 114 43701 988 287 41

(Numbers in thousands)

2004 2014 Number Percent

4,256 4,992 736 172,394 3,096 703 291,628 2,153 524 322,063 2,534 471 232,374 2,813 440 192,252 2,627 376 172,150 2,516 367 17

624 974 350 56

1,455 1,781 325 221,807 2,115 308 17

Short-term on-the-job training

Table 3c. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2004-14

(Numbers in thousands)

Employment Change Occupation

Table 3d. The 10 occupations with the largest employment growth, 2004-14

Employment Change Most significant source of posts

or training1

1 Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified

information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training D

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.

Bachelor's degreeModerate-term on-the-job trainingShort-term on-the-job training

Dental assistantsPersonal and home care aides

Associate degreeDoctoral degreeModerate-term on-the-job trainingShort-term on-the-job training

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast foodHome health aidesNursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

Short-term on-the-job trainingShort-term on-the-job trainingShort-term on-the-job trainingPostsecondary vocational award

General and operations managers

Occupation

1 Each occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified

information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2002 and Projected 2012" in Occupational Projections and Training D

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, March 2004), pp. 66-67, or in Bulletin 2602, the forthcoming 2006-07 edition of this publication.

Bachelor's or higher degree, plus w

Retail salespersonsRegistered nursesPostsecondary teachersCustomer service representativesJanitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleanersWaiters and waitresses

Most significant source of posts

or training1

Short-term on-the-job trainingBachelor's degreeModerate-term on-the-job trainingBachelor's degreeBachelor's degreeAssociate degreeAssociate degree

Home health aidesNetwork systems and data communications analystsMedical assistantsPhysician assistantsComputer software engineers, applicationsPhysical therapist assistantsDental hygienistsComputer software engineers, systems software
Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1984, 1994, 2004, and projected 2014

(Numbers in thousands)

Level Change Percent change Percent distribution 

Total, 16 years and older 113,544 131,056 147,401 162,100 17,512 16,345 14,699 15.4 12.5 10.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 

16 to 24 23,989 21,612 22,268 22,158 -2,377 656 -110 -9.9 3.0 -0.5 21.1 16.5 15.1 13.7 25 to 54 74,661 93,898 102,122 105,627 19,237 8,224 3,505 25.8 8.8 3.4 65.8 71.6 69.3 65.2 55 and older 14,894 15,546 23,011 34,315 652 7,465 11,304 4.4 48.0 49.1 13.1 11.9 15.6 21.2 

Men 63,835 70,817 78,980 86,194 6,982 8,163 7,214 10.9 11.5 9.1 56.2 54.0 53.6 53.2 Women 49,709 60,239 68,421 75,906 10,530 8,182 7,485 21.2 13.6 10.9 43.8 46.0 46.4 46.8 White 98,492 111,082 121,086 129,936 12,590 10,004 8,850 12.8 9.0 7.3 86.7 84.8 82.1 80.2 Black 12,033 14,502 16,638 19,433 2,469 2,136 2,795 20.5 14.7 16.8 10.6 11.1 11.3 12.0 Asian1 3,019 5,472 6,271 8,304 2,456 799 2,033 81.4 14.6 32.4 2.7 4.2 4.3 5.1 

All other groups2 (3) (3) 3,406 4,427 (3) (3) 1,021 (3) (3) 30.0 (3) (3) 2.3 2.7 

Hispanic origin 7,451 11,975 19,272 25,760 4,524 7,297 6,488 60.7 60.9 33.7 6.6 9.1 13.1 15.9 Other than Hispanic origin 106,093 119,081 128,129 136,340 12,988 9,048 8,211 12.2 7.6 6.4 93.4 90.9 86.9 84.1 

White Non-Hispanic 91,296 100,462 103,202 106,373 9,166 2,740 3,171 10.0 2.7 3.1 80.4 76.7 70.0 65.6 

2 The “All other groups" category includes (1) those classed as of multiple racial origin and (2) the race categories of (2a) American Indian and Alaska Native and (2b) Native Hawaiian and 3 Data for "All other groups" are not available for 1984 and 1994.1 As a result of changes in the definition of the race categories in census 2000, data for 1984 and 1994 represent the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights. Data for 2004 only" race category with 2000 census weights.

1984 1994 2004 2014 1984-94 1994-2004 2004-14 1984-94 1994-2004 2004-14 1984 1994 2004 

Group 2014