Internet Address: http://www.bls.gov/ces/ 

 Technical information: (202) 691-6555 USDL 02-648 

 Media contact: 691-5902 

 

 TRANSMISSION OF MATERIAL 

 IN THIS RELEASE IS EMBARGOED 

 UNTIL 8:30 AM EST, TUESDAY, 

 NOVEMBER 19, 2002 

 

 REAL EARNINGS IN OCTOBER 2002 

 

 Real average weekly earnings decreased by 0.3 percent from September to 

October after seasonal adjustment, according to preliminary data released today 

by the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor. A 0.3 

percent decline in average weekly hours and a 0.2 percent increase in the 

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) were 

partly offset by a 0.2 percent rise in average hourly earnings. 

 Data on average weekly earnings are collected from the payroll reports of 

private nonfarm establishments. Earnings of both full-time and part-time 

workers holding production or nonsupervisory jobs are included. Real average 

weekly earnings are calculated by adjusting earnings in current dollars for 

changes in the CPI-W. 

 Average weekly earnings rose by 3.3 percent, seasonally adjusted, from 

October 2001 to October 2002. After deflation by the CPI-W, average weekly 

earnings rose by 1.4 percent. Before adjustment for seasonal change and 

inflation, average weekly earnings were $508.43 in October 2002, compared with 

$492.66 a year earlier. 

 _____________________________ 

 Real Earnings for November 2002 will be released on Tuesday, December 

17, 2002. 

****************************************************************************** 

* The Current Employment Statistics (CES) program for the National series * 

* will convert from the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) to * 

* the 2002 North American Industrial Classification System (NAICS) with the * 

* release of May 2003 estimates in June 2003. All CES data, including real * 

* average hourly earnings and real average weekly earnings, will be * 

* reconstructed under NAICS. After the conversion to NAICS, SIC-based * 

* series will no longer be produced or published. * 

* See http://www.bls.gov/ces/cesnaics.htm or call 202-691-6555 for further * 

* details. * 

****************************************************************************** 
Table A. Composition of change in real earnings of production or

nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls

Year 

and

month

Average

hourly

earnings

Average

weekly

hours

Average

weekly

earnings

The

Consumer

Price

Index1

Real

average

weekly

earnings

Percent change from preceding month, seasonally adjusted

2001:

 Oct. 0.2 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 0.3

 Nov. .4 .3 .7 -.1 .8

 Dec. .3 .0 .3 -.2 .6

2002:

 Jan. .2 .0 .2 .2 (2)

 Feb. .2 .3 .5 .2 .3

 Mar. .2 .0 .2 .3 -.1

 Apr. .2 .0 .2 .6 -.3

 May .1 .0 .1 -.1 .2

 June .3 .3 .6 .1 .5

 July .2 -.9 -.7 .2 -.8

 Aug. .3 .3 .6 .3 .4

 Sept.p .2 .3 .5 .2 .3

 Oct.p .2 -.3 -.1 .2 -.3

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar

series presented in this release is the

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Less than 0.05 percent.

p = preliminary.

Table B. Percent change in earnings from the same month a year ago for

production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls,

seasonally adjusted

Year 

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars1

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars1

2001:

 Oct. 3.8 1.9 2.6 0.6

 Nov. 3.9 2.3 3.0 1.4

 Dec. 3.8 2.5 3.5 2.3

2002:

 Jan. 3.8 2.9 2.9 2.1

 Feb. 3.5 2.6 3.5 2.7

 Mar. 3.4 2.1 3.4 2.2

 Apr. 3.3 2.0 3.3 2.0

 May 3.2 2.4 3.2 2.4

 June 3.2 2.5 3.5 2.7

 July 3.1 1.9 2.5 1.2

 Aug. 3.1 1.5 3.1 1.5

 Sept.p 3.0 1.6 3.3 2.0

 Oct.p 3.0 1.0 3.3 1.4

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar

series presented in this release is the

Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Less than 0.05 percent.

p = preliminary.
Table 1. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm payrolls in current and constant

dollars1 by industry, not seasonally adjusted

Industry

Average hourly earnings Average weekly earnings

 Oct.

 2001

 Sept.

 2002p

 Oct.

 2002p

 Percent

 change

 Oct. 2001 -

 Oct. 2002

 Oct.

 2001

 Sept.

 2002p

 Oct.

 2002p

 Percent

 change

 Oct. 2001 -

 Oct. 2002

Total private:2

 Current dollars ...................... $14.49 $14.93 $14.91 2.9 $492.66 $515.09 $508.43 3.2

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.07 8.17 8.15 1.0 274.31 281.93 277.83 1.3

Goods-producing:

 Current dollars ...................... 16.13 16.59 16.58 2.8 651.65 676.87 668.17 2.5

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.98 9.08 9.06 .9 362.83 370.48 365.12 .6

Mining:

 Current dollars ...................... 17.72 17.69 17.63 -.5 772.59 764.21 752.80 -2.6

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 9.87 9.68 9.63 -2.4 430.17 418.29 411.37 -4.4

Construction:

 Current dollars ...................... 18.57 19.09 19.13 3.0 737.23 754.06 744.16 .9

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 10.34 10.45 10.45 1.1 410.48 412.73 406.64 -.9

Manufacturing:

 Current dollars ...................... 14.97 15.42 15.41 2.9 607.78 636.85 630.27 3.7

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.34 8.44 8.42 1.0 338.41 348.58 344.41 1.8

Service-producing:

 Current dollars ...................... 14.01 14.46 14.44 3.1 455.33 477.18 470.74 3.4

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 7.80 7.91 7.89 1.2 253.52 261.18 257.23 1.5

Transportation and public

 utilities:

 Current dollars ...................... 16.98 17.47 17.40 2.5 645.24 679.58 661.20 2.5

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 9.45 9.56 9.51 .6 359.27 371.96 361.31 .6

Wholesale trade:

 Current dollars ...................... 15.95 16.37 16.27 2.0 606.10 635.16 619.89 2.3

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.88 8.96 8.89 .1 337.47 347.65 338.74 .4

Retail trade:

 Current dollars ...................... 9.87 10.15 10.13 2.6 282.28 295.37 291.74 3.4

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 5.50 5.56 5.54 .7 157.17 161.67 159.42 1.4

Finance, insurance,

 and real estate:

 Current dollars ...................... 15.91 16.57 16.58 4.2 569.58 608.12 593.56 4.2

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.86 9.07 9.06 2.3 317.14 332.85 324.35 2.3

Services:

 Current dollars ...................... 14.87 15.36 15.37 3.4 483.28 503.81 501.06 3.7

 Constant (1982) dollars ...... 8.28 8.41 8.40 1.4 269.09 275.76 273.80 1.8

1 The deflator for the constant-dollar series presented in

this release is the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage

Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 2 Data relate to production and related workers in

mining and manufacturing; construction workers in

construction; and nonsupervisory workers in transportation

and public utilities, trade, finance, insurance, and real

estate, and services. Included in this group are

approximately four-fifths of all jobs on private industry

payrolls.

p = preliminary.
Table 2. Earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private nonfarm

payrolls1, seasonally adjusted

Year

and

month

Average hourly

earnings

Average weekly

earnings

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

Current

dollars

Constant

(1982) dollars2

2001:

 Oct. $14.46 $8.06 $491.64 $273.89

 Nov. 14.52 8.10 495.13 276.15

 Dec. 14.56 8.14 496.50 277.68

2002:

 Jan. 14.59 8.14 497.52 277.63

 Feb. 14.62 8.14 500.00 278.40

 Mar. 14.65 8.13 501.03 278.04

 Apr. 14.68 8.10 502.06 277.08

 May 14.70 8.12 502.74 277.60

 June 14.75 8.14 505.93 279.06

 July 14.78 8.14 502.52 276.72

 Aug. 14.83 8.14 505.70 277.70

 Sept. p 14.86 8.14 508.21 278.47

 Oct. p 14.89 8.14 507.75 277.61

1 See footnote 2, table 1. 2 The deflator for the constant-dollar series

presented in this release is the Consumer Price

Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical

Workers (CPI-W).

 p = preliminary.
Explanatory Note 

The earnings series presented in this release 

are derived from the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, a 

monthly establishment survey of employment, payroll, 

and hours. The deflator used for constant-dollar 

earnings series presented in this release is derived from 

the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and 

Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 

 For the purpose of the Real Earnings series, 

the CPI-W is converted from the base of 1982-84 that 

is used in the official, published series to a base of 

1982. Thus, the constant dollar average hourly and 

weekly earnings series are in 1982 dollars. To avoid 

confusion for users, the CPI data presented in Table A 

are the official, published CPI-W series. These data 

may differ slightly from those used in the real earnings 

calculations. 

 Seasonally adjusted data are used for 

estimates of percent change from the same month a 

year ago for current and constant average hourly and 

weekly earnings that are presented in Table B of this 

release. Special techniques are applied to the CES 

hours and earnings data in the seasonal adjustment 

process to mitigate the effect of certain calendarrelated fluctuations. Thus, over-the-year changes of 

these hours and earnings are best measured using 

seasonally adjusted series. A discussion of the 

calendar-related fluctuations in the hours and earnings 

data and the special techniques to remove them is 

available in the June 1998 issue of Employment and 

Earnings or on the Internet (http://www.bls.gov/ces/). 

 Earnings series from the monthly 

establishment series are estimated arithmetic averages 

(means) of the hourly and weekly earnings of all 

production or nonsupervisory jobs in the private 

nonfarm sector of the economy. Average hourly 

earnings estimates are derived by dividing the 

estimated industry payroll--for all production or 

nonsupervisory jobs--by the corresponding paid hours. 

Average weekly hours estimates are similarly derived 

by dividing estimated aggregate hours by the 

corresponding number of production or nonsupervisory 

jobs. Average weekly earnings estimates are derived 

by multiplying the average hourly earnings and the 

average weekly hours estimates. This is equivalent to 

dividing the estimated payroll by the number of 

production or nonsupervisory jobs. The weekly and 

hourly earnings estimates for aggregate industries, 

such as the major industry division and the total private 

sector averages printed in this release, are derived by 

summing the corresponding payroll, hours, and 

employment estimates of the component industries. 

As a result, each industry receives a "weight" in the 

published averages that corresponds to its current level 

of activity (employment or total hours). This further 

implies that fluctuations and varying trends in 

employment in high-wage versus low-wage industries 

as well as wage rate changes influence the earnings 

averages. 

 There are several characteristics of the series 

presented in this release that limit their suitability for 

some types of economic analyses. (1) The denominator 

for the weekly earnings series is the number of private 

nonfarm production or nonsupervisory worker jobs. 

This number includes full-time and part-time jobs as 

well as the jobs held by multiple jobholders in the 

private nonfarm sector. These factors tend to result in 

weekly earnings averages significantly lower than the 

corresponding numbers for full-time jobs. (2) Annual 

earnings averages can differ significantly from the 

result obtained by multiplying average weekly 

earnings times 52 weeks. The difference may be due 

to factors such as turnovers and layoffs. (3) The series 

are the average earnings of all production or 

nonsupervisory jobs, not the earnings average of 

"typical" jobs or jobs held by "typical" workers. 

Specifically, there are no adjustments for occupational, 

age, or schooling variations or for household type or 

location. Many studies have established the 

significance of these factors and that their impact 

varies over time. 

 Seasonally adjusted data (table 2) are 

preferred by some users for analyzing general earnings 

trends in the economy since they eliminate the effect of 

changes that normally occur at the same time and in 

about the same magnitude each year and, therefore, 

reveal the underlying trends and cyclical movements. 

Changes in average earnings may be due to seasonal 

changes in the proportion of workers in high-wage and 

low-wage industries or occupations or to seasonal 

changes in the amount of overtime work, and so on. 

 For more information, see Thomas Gavett, 

"Measures of Change in Real Wages and Earnings," 

Monthly Labor Review, February 1972. 

 Information in this release will be made 

available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD Message Referral 

Phone Number: 1-800-877-8339.