For release 10:00 a.m. (EDT) Wednesday, September 4, 2019 USDL-19-1571

Technical information: (202) 691-5700 • ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2018-2028

Employment is projected to grow by 8.4 million jobs to 169.4 million jobs over the 2018–28 decade, the U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported today. This expansion reflects an annual growth rate of 0.5 percent, 

which is slower than the 2008–18 annual growth rate of 0.8 percent. An aging population and labor force will 

contribute to changes expected over the coming decade including a continued decline in the labor force 

participation rate and continued growth in employment in healthcare and related industries and occupations. 

(See Chart 1.) Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to grow at much the same rate from 2018 to 

2028 as it did in the previous decade; labor productivity is projected to accelerate slightly from the previous 

decade to an annual rate of 1.6 percent, higher than the previous decade’s annual rate of 1.3 percent. 

Occupational Outlook Handbook

The projections are the foundation of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), one of the nation’s 

most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects BLS employment projections for the 2018–

28 decade. The updated OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

27.3%

28.2%

30.7%

31.1%

31.6%

33.1%

36.4%

36.6%

56.9%

63.3%

Speech-language pathologists

Nurse practitioners

Statisticians

Physician assistants

Information security analysts

Occupational therapy assistants

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Wind turbine service technicians

Solar photovoltaic installers

41.9

53.3

13.6

37.0

35.5

14.5

881.0

304.8

3.8

6.1

Chart 1. Ten fastest growing occupations, projected 2018-28

Percent change, projected

2018-28

Employment change, projected 2018-28 

(in thousands)

Median annual wages, 

May 2018

$42,680 

$54,370

$24,200

$24,020

$60,220

$98,350

$108,610

$87,780

$107,030

$77,510
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The following are highlights of BLS projections for the labor force, the macroeconomy, and industry and 

occupational employment.

Labor Force 

• The labor force is projected to increase at an annual rate of 0.5 percent from 2018 to 2028. (See Chart 2.)

This growth represents an increase of 8.9 million over the decade to 171 million by 2028. The labor force 

participation rate is projected to decline to 61.2 percent. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-summary.htm. 

• Older workers, those ages 65 years and older, are increasingly staying in the workforce. The labor force 

participation rate for these workers is expected to increase to 23.3 percent by 2028. Conversely, the labor 

force participation rate for those ages 16 to 24 is projected to continue to decline, to 51.7 percent. This 

decline is expected due to increased time spent in school and displaced opportunities as older workers fill 

jobs historically held by younger workers. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/civilian-labor-force-participation-rate.htm. 

• The share of workers ages 55 and older—a group that includes baby boomers, who are staying in the 

workforce longer—is projected to continue to increase over the 2018–28 decade, from 23.1 percent to 25.2 

percent. (See Chart 3.) 

• Much of the projected decline in the overall labor force participation rate from 2018 to 2028 is due to a 

decrease in the participation rate for men, from 69.1 percent to 66.1 percent. However, the participation rate 

for women is also expected to decline over the decade, from 57.1 percent to 56.6 percent. (See Chart 4.) 

1.3%

1.0%

0.8%

1.1%

0.5% 0.5%

0.8% 0.8%

0.5%

1998-2008 2008-18 Projected 2018-28

Chart 2. Annual growth rate of the population, labor force, and employment, by decade, 1998 to 

projected 2028

Civilian non-institutional population aged 16 and over

Labor force

Employment
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Macroeconomy

• Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in 2012 chained dollars is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 

percent from 2018 to 2028, the same rate as that of the 2008–18 decade. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/real-gdp-major-demand-category.htm. 

• Although GDP growth is projected to remain steady, labor productivity is expected to accelerate. 

Productivity is projected to grow at an annual rate of 1.6 percent from 2018 to 2028, slightly faster than the 

2008–18 rate of 1.3 percent. The projected growth indicates a recovery back to long-run productivity growth 

rates, and is expected due to a combination of factors, such as capital investment, technological 

advancement, and workforce education.

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/labor-supply-factors-affecting-productivity.htm.

15.9 14.3 12.9 11.5 

23.8 21.6 22.7 21.6 

27.3 

22.7 20.7 22.4 

20.6 

23.3 

20.6 19.3 

12.4 18.1 23.1 25.2 

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

1998 2008 2018 Projected 2028

Chart 3. Percent distribution of the labor force by age group, 

1998 to projected 2028

55 and older

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24

Percent distribution of the labor force

69.1

66.1

62.9

61.2

57.1 56.6

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

1978 1988 1998 2008 2018 Projected 2028

Chart 4. Labor force participation rate, by sex, 1978 to projected 2028

Men Total Women
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Industry Employment 

• Industry employment is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.5 percent from 2018 to 2028, slower than 

the annual rate of 0.8 percent from 2008 to 2018. Employment will increase to about 169.4 million over the 

projections decade. See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/employment-by-major-industry-sector.htm.

• The service-providing sector as a whole will grow at a projected rate of 0.6 percent annually, slightly faster 

than the annual rate of 0.5 percent for industry employment overall. This growth is projected to add more 

than 7.6 million jobs, resulting in 136.8 million jobs in the service-providing sector by 2028. After declining 

slightly from 2008 to 2018 (-0.3 percent annually), the goods-producing sector is expected to change little 

from 2018–28, with an annual growth rate of 0.1 percent. 

• The sectors projected to experience the fastest annual employment growth are health care and social 

assistance (1.6 percent), private educational services (1.2 percent), and construction (1.1 percent). These 

three sectors alone are projected to add more than 4.6 million jobs by 2028—including 3.4 million new jobs 

projected in healthcare and social assistance. (See Chart 5.) 

• Five sectors are projected to experience employment declines from 2018 to 2028: retail trade, wholesale 

trade, utilities, federal government, and manufacturing. Retail trade is projected to decline by 0.1 percent 

annually, resulting in an employment decrease of 153,700 jobs. One factor contributing to this decline is a 

shift to e-commerce, which is also driving employment growth in the transportation and warehousing sector.

-0.5%

-0.5%

-0.3%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.0%

0.1%

0.1%

0.3%

0.6%

0.6%

0.8%

0.9%

1.1%

1.2%

1.6%

Manufacturing

Federal government

Utilities

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

Information

State and local government

Other services

Financial activities

Transportation and warehousing

Mining

Professional and business services

Leisure and hospitality

Construction

Educational services, private

Health care and social assistance

-640.7

-125.8

-17.4

-98.5

-153.7

5.6

251.0

94.3

280.6

322.3

44.6

1662.4

1556.4

807.5

473.5

3396.1

Chart 5. Percent change and numeric growth by industry sector, projected 2018-28

Percent change, projected 2018-28 

(Annual change)

Employment change, projected 2018-28 

(in thousands)

Total 

nonagricultural 

wage and salary 

annual growth = 

0.5%
-5- 

Occupational Employment 

• Occupational employment is projected to grow by 5.2 percent from 2018 to 2028, an increase of 8.4 million 

jobs. Many of the fastest growing occupations are in healthcare and related services. Other rapid-growth 

occupations are in computer and mathematics and in renewable energy fields. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/emp-by-major-occupational-group.htm. 

• Employment in nearly all major occupational groups is projected to increase from 2018 to 2028. The fastest 

growing groups include healthcare support occupations (18.2 percent), personal care and service 

occupations (17.4 percent), computer and mathematical occupations (12.7 percent), healthcare practitioners 

and technical occupations (11.9 percent), and community and social service occupations (11.2 percent). 

• Three occupational groups are projected to have declining employment over the 2018–28 decade. 

Employment in sales and related occupations is expected to decline by 0.5 percent as consumers 

increasingly make purchases online through e-commerce. Office and administrative support occupations and 

production occupations are also expected to have employment declines, 2.6 percent and 4.5 percent, 

respectively, as advancements in technology and automation increase productivity or shift work to other 

occupations. 

• Of the 30 fastest growing occupations, 18 are in healthcare and related occupations. Increased demand for 

healthcare services from an aging population and people with chronic conditions will drive much of the 

expected employment growth. The fastest growing among these occupations are home health aides and 

personal care aides. Other healthcare occupations with rapid projected growth—including nurse 

practitioners, physician assistants, and medical assistants—will be in greater demand as the healthcare 

industry moves toward delivery of team-based care. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/tables/fastest-growing-occupations.htm. 

• Computer and mathematical occupations account for 6 of the 30 fastest growing occupations. Increasing use 

of mobile and connected devices will drive demand for application software developers, which is projected 

to experience employment growth of 25.6 percent. The need for robust online security will also rise as more 

connected devices enter homes and workplaces. This increased need for cybersecurity will drive demand for 

information security analysts, employment of which is projected to grow by 31.6 percent. 

• Advances in, and implementation of, renewable energy technologies are expected to drive employment 

growth in the two occupations with the highest projected growth rates: solar photovoltaic installers (63.3 

percent) and wind turbine technicians (56.9 percent). Despite the rapid growth projected in these 

occupations, their small employment size means that the growth is projected to yield only 6,100 new jobs 

and 3,800 new jobs, respectively. 

More Information 

• The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about 568 detailed occupations in 325 

occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. Each profile features the 2018–28 

projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work activities, wages, education and training 

requirements, and more. 

• Many profiles in the OOH now include career videos produced by the U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) 

CareerOneStop. Links to videos appear on the Summary tab of profiles to the right of the Quick Facts box. 

In addition, projections data and wage information in the OOH are now updated on an annual basis. The 
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OOH reflects the 2018–28 projections and May 2018 wages from the Occupational Employment Statistics 

(OES) program. The OOH will be updated with May 2019 wages in the spring of 2020. 

• The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

• Detailed information on the 2018–28 projections will appear in an upcoming Monthly Labor Review article 

at www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/. 

• Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections are available online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm. 

• Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm. 

Information from this news release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. Voice 

phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339. 
Technical Note

BLS publishes projections for the labor force, the 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment. More information is 

available online:

• Labor force: 

www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm

• Macroeconomy: 

www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregate-economy.htm 

• Industry employment:

 www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-and-emp.htm 

• Occupational employment:

www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm

The projections data provide an overview of expected 

changes in the economy over a 10-year period. The 

projections are focused on long-term structural trends 

of the economy and do not try to anticipate future 

business cycle activity. To meet this objective, specific 

assumptions are made about the labor force, 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment. Critical to the production 

of these projections is the assumption of full 

employment for the economy in the projected year. 

The projections are not intended to be a forecast of 

what the future will be but instead are a description of 

what would be expected to happen under these specific 

assumptions and circumstances. When these 

assumptions are not realized, actual values will differ 

from projections.

The difference between projected changes in the labor 

force and in employment does not imply a labor 

shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume 

labor market equilibrium; that is, one in which labor 

supply meets labor demand except for some level of 

frictional unemployment. In addition, the employment 

and labor force measures use different definitional and 

statistical concepts. For example, employment is a 

count of jobs, and one person may hold more than one 

job. Labor force is a count of employed people, and a 

person is counted only once regardless of how many 

jobs he or she holds. 

For more information, visit the Employment 

Projections Methodology page online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/documentation/projectionsmethods.htm. 

Frequently asked questions about the employment 

projections are online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm.

Users and Uses

The BLS projections are used by high school and 

college students, their teachers and parents, 

jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance specialists 

to determine jobs in demand. The projections also are 

used by state workforce agencies to prepare state and 

area projections that, together with the national 

projections, are widely used by policymakers to make 

decisions about education and training, funding 

allocations, and program offerings. These projections 

of jobs in demand help improve the alignment between 

education and training and the hiring demands of 

business. In addition, other federal agencies, 

researchers, and academics use the projections to 

understand trends in the economy and labor market. 

Projections of industry and occupational employment 

are prepared by each state, using input from the BLS 

National projections. State projections data are 

available at Projections Central 

www.projectionscentral.com.