For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Thursday, September 8, 2022 USDL-22-1805 

Technical information: (202) 691-5700 • ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp 

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2021-2031 

The U.S. economy is projected to add 8.3 million jobs from 2021 to 2031, the U.S. Bureau of Labor 

Statistics (BLS) reported today. Total employment is projected to increase from 158.1 million to 166.5 

million and grow 0.5 percent annually, which is slower than the 1.0 percent annual growth recorded over 

the 2011−21 decade. (See chart 1.) 

The 2021−31 projections use 2021 annual average employment levels as the base year. The 2021 annual 

average levels do not reflect much of the employment recovery and reallocation that has already 

occurred in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic and the accompanying recession, given total 

employment continued to grow rapidly through the first half of 2022. As a result, total employment for 

the 2021−31 projections, and projected growth in many sectors, reflects fast projected growth resulting 

from low base year employment levels. However, the pandemic also has been a catalyst for some 

structural changes in demand for certain goods and services, which are expected to affect long-term 

demand for employment in a select group of industries and occupations. 

Occupational Outlook Handbook

The BLS projections are the foundation of the Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), one of the 

nation's most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects BLS employment projections

for the 2021–31 decade. The updated OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

158.1

166.5

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Millions

Chart 1. Total employment, 2001–21 and projected 2031

Note: Total employment includes wage and salary employment and self-employment.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-2- 

Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the 2021–31 projections

The COVID-19 pandemic prompted an economic recession from February 2020 to April 2020, leading 

to substantial declines in output and employment. While the recession only lasted a few months, the 

pandemic persisted through 2021, continuing to disrupt economic activity, prevent or discourage 

individuals from re-entering the labor force, and impact other economic conditions that affect 

employment. The economy rebounded in 2021, regaining approximately 4.6 million jobs; however, this 

equates to only about half of the jobs that were lost from 2019 to 2020. As a result, the 2021 annual 

average employment level, which forms the baseline for the 2021–31 projections, remained well below 

pre-pandemic levels. Employment in a majority of sectors continued to recover through the first half of 

2022, and the 2021–31 projections do not reflect the employment recovery and reallocation that 

occurred during that time period. 

Some industries that have been disproportionately affected by the COVID-19 pandemic have lower 

base-year values and are expected to experience cyclical recoveries in the early part of the 2021–31 

decade, as industry output and employment normalize and return to their long-term growth trends,

leading to higher projected employment growth. (See the Technical Note for discussion of the difference 

between cyclical and structural changes.) Projected rapid growth for industries in which employment fell 

in 2020 and remained low in 2021 also is expected to result in strong growth for the occupations 

employed by those industries. For instance, many movie theaters were not operating at full capacity in 

2021, resulting in a lower employment level in the motion picture and video exhibition industry in 2021 

than in pre-pandemic recent history. This industry is projected to grow 70.5 percent over the 2021–31 

decade, on account of a cyclical recovery in employment rather than a long-term structural increase in 

demand for motion picture and video exhibition. In turn, motion picture projectionists; and ushers, lobby 

attendants, and ticket takers—occupations highly concentrated in the industry—are also expected to 

experience strong cyclical growth. 

In addition, some industries and occupations are projected to have altered long-term structural demand 

arising from economic changes spurred by the pandemic. For example, many computer occupations are 

expected to have elevated long-term demand, in part due to increased business demand for telework 

computing infrastructure and information technology (IT) security. 

Data users should therefore bear in mind that fast growth rates in this projections set can be cyclically 

driven, structurally driven (in the long term), or driven by a combination of cyclical and structural 

factors. 
-3- 

The leisure and hospitality sector is projected to experience the fastest employment growth of all sectors, 

owing mostly to the low base point in 2021. (See chart 4.) The healthcare and social assistance sector is 

projected to create the most jobs over the 2021−31 decade, growing in tandem with the segment of the 

population that is aged 65 and over. This should, in turn, boost demand for various healthcare 

occupations, especially those involved in caring for the elderly and those expected to benefit from the 

increased prevalence of team-based healthcare. 

Total projected employment growth is conditional upon expected growth of the economy and of the 

labor force, both of which can be influenced by changes in the population. Real Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) is projected to grow at a 2.1 percent annual rate from 2021 to 2031, slightly faster than in the 

prior decade. Growth of the civilian noninstitutional population is projected to slow to an annual rate of 

0.7 percent, while the labor force is projected to grow at a 0.5 percent annual rate, about the same pace 

as that of the 2011−21 decade. 

Highlights of the BLS 2021–31 projections for the labor force, macroeconomy, industry employment, 

and occupational employment are included below. 

Population and Labor Force

• The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to increase by 19.6 million to a level of 281.0 

million in 2031, which is less than the 21.8 million increase that occurred over the 2011–21 decade. 

The civilian noninstitutional population is expected to grow 0.7 percent annually over the 2021−31 

decade, slowing from the 0.9 percent annual growth rate registered in the decade from 2011 to 2021. 

While population growth has been slowing for several decades, the projected 0.7 percent annual 

growth represents one of the slowest growth rates in the data series’ history. (See chart 2.) 

0.9

0.7

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031

Chart 2. Population, 10-year compound annual average rate of 

change, 1961─2021 and 2021─31 projected

Percent

Note: Reference to population in the text and charts refers to the civilian noninstitutional population, 16 years and over. Rates are 

the compound annual average rate of change over 10-year periods.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-4- 

• The expected slowdown in population growth over the 2021−31 decade is primarily attributed to 

lower fertility rates in recent decades compared with rates seen in the 1960s and early 1970s, as well 

as to reduced net international migration in the last two decades in comparison to that of preceding 

decades.

• Slower projected growth in the population is expected to constrain growth in the civilian labor force 

over the projections period. The civilian labor force is expected to rise to 168.9 million in 2031 from 

161.2 million in 2021, a 7.7 million increase. This translates to projected annual growth of 0.5 

percent, the same rate as that of the 2011−21 decade but slower than rates in years prior to 2011.

• The labor force participation rate is projected to fall from 61.7 percent in 2021 to 60.1 percent in 

2031. An aging population, represented by a greater share of individuals over the age of 65, is the 

principal factor driving the decline in the labor force participation rate over the 2021−31 decade. 

• At the same time, the participation rates of the 55-to-64 and 65-plus age groups are projected to 

climb higher over the projections decade as older workers increasingly stay in the workforce. (See 

chart 3.)

Macroeconomy

• Real GDP is projected to grow 2.1 percent annually over the 2021−31 decade. This is slightly higher 

than the two previous decades’ respective annual rates of 2.0 percent and 1.8 percent, but much 

lower than the 3.0 percent and above rates seen in the 1980s and 1990s. 

• Labor productivity growth is projected to accelerate to 2.2 percent annually—within its long-term 

historic range. This is up significantly from 1.3 percent annual productivity growth in the prior 

decade.

55.5

51.1

81.6 81.1

64.6 68.2

18.9

21.5

61.7

60.1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031

Chart 3. Labor force participation rate, by select age group, 1991─2021 and 

2021─31 projected 16-24 25-54 55-64 65+ All, 16+ Percent

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-5- 

Industry Employment

• Total employment is projected to grow 0.5 percent annually from 158.1 million in 2021 to 166.5 

million in 2031. Employment grew at a 1.0 percent annual rate from 2011–21. 

• The healthcare and social assistance sector is projected to add about 2.6 million jobs from 2021 to 

2031, the most of any sector. (See chart 4.) Within this sector, the individual and family services 

industry is projected to add the most employment over the projections period—approximately 

850,000 jobs—and is expected to have the fastest annual employment growth of all healthcare and 

social assistance industries at 2.8 percent. Employment growth in this industry, as well as other 

healthcare and social assistance industries, is expected to be driven by the aging baby-boom 

population and a higher prevalence of chronic conditions. 

• Employment in several sectors remained hampered in 2021 by surges in COVID-19 cases, public 

concern about viral transmission, mitigation measures, and by employment reallocation, resulting in 

low base year employment for the 2021–31 projections. These sectors, including leisure and 

hospitality, and other services—which include repair and maintenance services and personal care 

services—are projected to be among the fastest growing over the 2021–31 decade. 

• Nearly three quarters of the jobs lost in leisure and hospitality during the COVID-19 pandemic in 

2020 had yet to be recovered in 2021. Consequently, leisure and hospitality is projected to grow the 

fastest among all sectors over the 2021–31 decade at an annual rate of 1.3 percent, reflecting cyclical 

recovery. Seven of the top 20 fastest growing industries are in the leisure and hospitality sector. In 

addition, the food services and drinking places industry is expected to have the largest employment 

increase of any industry, adding about 1.3 million jobs over 2021–31. 

Chart 4. Employment change by industry sector, 2021–31 projected

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.2%

-0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.7%

0.7%

0.7%

0.8%

1.2%

1.2%

1.2%

1.3%

Utilities

Federal government

Retail trade

Manufacturing

State and local government

Wholesale trade

Construction

Financial activities

Professional and business services

Information

Transportation and warehousing

Other services

Educational services

Mining

Health care and social assistance

Leisure and hospitality

-34.6

-105.0

-332.7

-139.4

299.0

135.8

204.7

336.2

1,549.4

209.8

466.5

527.3

437.2

63.8

2,610.0

1,923.4

Service providing

Goods producing

Total nonagriculture 

wage and salary annual 

growth = 0.5%

Compound annual rate of change for wage and 

salary employment, projected 2021–31

Wage and salary employment change, 

projected 2021–31 (in thousands)

Note: Nonagriculture wage and salary employment includes wage and salary data from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) survey, except private households, 

which is from the Current Population Survey (CPS). Logging workers are excluded.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
-6- 

• Demand for professional and business services is expected to increase over the projections period, 

driven by businesses’ need for technical expertise in areas such as IT solutions and cybersecurity, 

management, marketing research, and other consulting and technical services. This sector is 

projected to see the third-largest employment increase over the 2021–31 decade. 

• Retail trade is projected to lose the most jobs of any sector over 2021–31. Brick-and-mortar retail 

establishments are expected to continue to contend with fiercer competition from online retailing.

Occupational Employment

• Healthcare support occupations are projected to grow the fastest of all occupational groups, at 17.8 

percent from 2021−31. (See chart 5.) Projected fast-growing occupations in this group include 

physical therapist assistants, home health and personal care aides, and occupational therapy 

assistants. In addition to its projected rapid growth, home health and personal care aides is also 

projected to experience the largest increase in new jobs of any occupation over the 2021−31 

projections period. It is projected to gain approximately 924,000 jobs, reaching an employment level 

of 4.6 million in 2031, which would make it the largest occupation in the economy. Demand for 

caregiving services and therapy services is expected to rise rapidly in response to the growing 

elderly population, which typically has elevated healthcare needs compared to younger groups. 

-5 0 5 10 15 20

Office and administrative support

Production

Sales and related

Farming, fishing, and forestry

Protective service

Architecture and engineering

Construction and extraction

Installation, maintenance, and repair

Total, all occupations

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance

Transportation and material moving

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media

Life, physical, and social science

Business and financial operations

Educational instruction and library

Management

Healthcare practitioners and technical

Legal

Community and social service

Food preparation and serving related

Personal care and service

Computer and mathematical

Healthcare support

Chart 5. Projected percent change in employment, by occupational group, 2021–31, 

including realized employment change as of August 2022

Percent change realized as of August 2022

Projected percent change beyond realized employment change

Note: Data for percent change realized as of August 2022 are estimates of the employment change from the 2021 base year of the 

projections through the most recent historical data available as of August 2022. 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

Total, all occupations = 5.3%
-7- 

• The computer and mathematical occupational group is projected to experience much faster than 

average employment growth of 15.4 percent through 2031. Expected strong demand for IT services, 

including cybersecurity services and cloud computing, will fuel demand for computer occupations. 

For mathematical occupations, expected robust growth in data—in part related to Internet of Things 

(IoT) and the connectivity of consumer products and industrial machinery—and demand for data to 

be collected and analyzed are main factors behind strong projected employment growth. Three 

computer and mathematical occupations are featured among the ten fastest growing occupations: 

data scientists, information security analysts, and statisticians. In addition, software developers are 

expected to see the third-largest increase in jobs of any occupation over the 2021−31 decade.

• Personal care and service occupations and food preparation and serving related occupations are 

projected to be the third and fourth fastest growing occupational groups, respectively. Many of these 

occupations were highly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and continued to be impacted 

in 2021. Consequently, occupations within these groups, such as restaurant cooks, are expected to 

experience strong cyclical growth. 

• Some employment lost during the pandemic and projected to be recovered over the projections 

decade has already been recuperated, as employment grew rapidly throughout the first half of 2022. 

As a result, some occupational groups have fast projected growth that reflects short-term recovery 

rather than long-term expected gains, such as the food preparation and serving related occupational 

group, which had already realized a notable share of its projected 2021−31 employment change by 

mid-2022. (See chart 5.) 

• Three occupational groups—office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, 

and sales and related occupations—are projected to lose jobs over the 2021–31 decade. Sixteen of 

the 20 occupations with the largest declines in employment levels over 2021–31 are classified in one 

Chart 6. Ten fastest growing occupations, projected 2021–31

31.7

32.7

34.7

35.7

35.8

36.6

40.3

40.5

44.3

45.7

Umpires, referees, and other sports officials

Statisticians

Information security analysts

Athletes and sports competitors

Data scientists

Cooks, restaurant

Motion picture projectionists

Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers

Wind turbine service technicians

Nurse practitioners

4.2

11.2

56.5

5.7

40.5

459.9

0.8

25.6

4.9

112.7

Median annual 

wage, May 2021(1)

Employment change, 

projected 2021–31 (in thousands)

Percent employment change, 

projected 2021–31

Footnotes:

1) Data are from the Occupational Employment and Wage Statistics (OEWS) program, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Wage data cover non-farm wage and 

salary workers and do not cover the self-employed, owners and partners in unincorporated firms, or household workers.

Note: Some occupations are expected to experience cyclical recovery from the COVID-19 recession, which results in fast projected growth for these 

occupations. 

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

$120,680 

$56,260 

$24,440 

$29,350 

$30,010 

$100,910 

$77,300 

$102,600 

$95,570 

$35,860 
-8- 

of these three groups. The automation of tasks is a main factor behind the projected employment 

declines of many of these occupations. Cashiers, whose tasks can largely be replaced by selfcheckout, is projected to lose the most jobs of all occupations, while word processors and typists is 

projected to experience the sharpest drop in employment over the projections period. 

• Nurse practitioners is projected to experience the fastest employment growth of all occupations, with 

projected growth of 45.7 percent. (See chart 6.) Healthcare facilities are increasingly using teambased healthcare models, which utilize nurse practitioners, physician assistants, and other healthcare 

practitioners to provide patient care that would otherwise be provided by a doctor. 

More Information 

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about more than 500 detailed 

occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. 

Each profile features the 2021–31 projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work 

activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more. 

• The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

• Field of degree pages are available online at www.bls.gov/ooh/field-of-degree/home.htm. 

• Detailed information on the 2021–31 projections will appear in the Monthly Labor Review in Fall 

2022. 

• Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections are available online 

at www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm. 

• Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm. 

If you are deaf, hard of hearing, or have a speech disability, please dial 7-1-1 to access 

telecommunications relay services.
Technical Note

BLS publishes projections for the labor force, the 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment. More information is 

available online:

• Labor force:

www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm

• Macroeconomy: 

www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregate-economy.htm

• Industry employment:

www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-andemp.htm

• Occupational employment: 

www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupational-data.htm

The projections data provide an overview of 

expected changes in the economy over a decade. The 

projections focus on long-term structural trends of the 

economy and do not try to anticipate future business 

cycle activity. Cyclical change refers to short-term 

business cycle fluctuations around a trend. For 

example, employment may decline in a particular 

industry during a recession (cyclical decline) and 

grow during the recovery immediately following the 

recession (cyclical growth), eventually returning to 

the long-term trend level. Structural change refers to 

the long-term trend and in the case of employment 

reflects changes in the allocation of employment by 

industry and occupation. Structural changes in 

industry or occupational employment are based on 

factors such as changes in consumer preferences that 

affect the demand for goods and services or new 

technology that affects production practices.

To maintain a focus on long-term trends, BLS 

makes specific assumptions about the labor force, 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment. Critical to the production 

of these projections is the assumption of full 

employment for the economy in the projected year. 

The projections are not intended to be a forecast of 

what the future will be but instead to describe what is 

expected under these specific assumptions and 

circumstances. When these assumptions are not 

realized, actual values will differ from projected 

values.

The difference between projected changes in the 

labor force and in employment does not necessarily 

imply a labor shortage or surplus. The BLS 

projections assume labor market equilibrium; that is, 

one in which labor supply meets labor demand except 

for some level of frictional unemployment. In 

addition, the employment and labor force measures

use different definitional and statistical concepts. For 

example, employment is a count of jobs, and one 

person may hold more than one job. Labor force is a 

count of all individuals who are either employed or 

unemployed and actively looking for work, and a 

person is counted only once regardless of how many 

jobs he or she holds.

For more information, visit the Employment 

Projections Methodology page online at 

www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm.

Frequently asked questions about the 

employment projections are online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-asked-questions.htm.

Users and Uses

The BLS projections are used by high school and 

college students, their teachers and parents, 

jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance 

specialists to determine jobs in demand. The 

projections also are used by state workforce agencies 

to prepare state and area projections that, together 

with the national projections, are widely used by 

policymakers to make decisions about education and 

training, funding allocations, and program offerings. 

These projections of jobs in demand help improve the 

alignment between education and training and the 

hiring needs of employers. In addition, other federal 

agencies, researchers, and academics use the 

projections to understand trends in the economy and 

labor market. 

Projections of industry and occupational 

employment are prepared by each state, using input 

from the BLS national projections. State projections 

data are available at Projections Central 

www.projectionscentral.org.