For release 10:00 a.m. (EDT) Tuesday, October 24, 2017 USDL-17-1429 

Technical information: (202) 691-5700 • ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov 

(NOTE: This news release was reissued on January 30, 2018, to correct the projection of selfemployed workers for all detailed occupations. Text in the Occupational Employment section and 

charts 1 and 5 were affected.)

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2016-26

Employment is projected to increase by 11.5 million over the 2016-26 decade, an increase from 156.1 

million to 167.6 million, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This growth—0.7 percent 

annually—is faster than the 0.5 percent rate of growth during the 2006–16 decade, a period heavily 

affected by the 2007–09 recession. Health care industries and their associated occupations are expected 

to account for a large share of new jobs projected through 2026, as the aging population continues to 

drive demand for health care services. The labor force will continue to grow slowly and to become older 

and more diverse. The aging population is projected to result in a decline in the overall labor force 

participation rate over the 2016 to 2026 decade. 

Occupational Outlook Handbook

The projections are the foundation of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), one 

of the nation’s most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects BLS 

29.7%

30.7%

31.0%

33.8%

36.1%

37.3%

38.6%

47.3%

96.3%

104.9%

Mathematicians

Software developers, applications

Physical therapist assistants

Statisticians

Nurse practitioners

Physician assistants

Personal care aides

Home health aides

Wind turbine service technicians

Solar photovoltaic installers

0.9

255.4

27.4

12.6

56.1

39.6

777.6

431.2

5.6

11.8

Chart 1. Ten fastest growing occupations, projected 2016-26 

Percent change, projected

2016-26

Employment change, projected 2016-26 

(in thousands)

Median annual wages, 

May 2016

$39,240 

$52,260

$22,600

$21,920

$101,480

$100,910

$80,500

$56,610

$100,080

$105,810
- 2 - 

employment projections for the 2016–26 decade. The updated OOH is available online at 

www.bls.gov/ooh. 

Highlights of the BLS projections for the labor force, macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment are included below.

Labor Force and Macroeconomy

• The civilian labor force is projected to reach 169.7 million in 2026, growing at an annual rate of 

0.6 percent. This growth is slightly faster than the annual rate of growth (0.5 percent) witnessed 

during the 2006–16 decade, but slower than the annual growth experienced during several 

decades prior. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_301.htm. 

• Slow labor force growth is a result, in part, of decelerating growth of the civilian noninstitutional 

population, which is projected to grow at an annual rate of 0.9 percent from 2016 to 2026. This 

growth is slower than the rates witnessed during previous decades, 1.0 percent from 2006 to 

2016, and 1.3 percent from 1996 to 2006. 

• As the labor force continues to get older, the overall labor force participation rate is

projected to decrease to 61.0 percent in 2026. This rate is down from 62.8 percent in 

2016 and from the peak of 67.1 percent in 2000, prior to the 2007–09 recession. See 

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_303.htm. 

• As the baby-boom generation ages, the share of workers age 55 and older—a cohort with a low 

labor force participation rate—is projected to grow to 24.8 percent in 2026. This share is up from 

22.4 percent in 2016 and 16.8 percent in 2006. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_301.htm. 

15.8 14.8 13.3 11.7 

25.3 21.5 22.3 22.1 

27.3 

23.7 20.6 22.2 

19.7 

23.2 

21.3 19.2 

11.9 16.8 22.4 24.8 

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

1996 2006 2016 Projected 2026

Chart 2. Labor force share, by age group, 1996, 2006, 

2016, and projected 2026

55 and older

45 to 54

35 to 44

25 to 34

16 to 24

Percent distribution of the labor force
- 3 - 

• The labor force will also continue to change in racial and ethnic composition. Two groups 

of workers—Asians and those of Hispanic origin—are expected to grow much faster

than the average annual rate from 2016 to 2026: 2.5 percent and 2.7 percent, respectively. 

Workers of Hispanic origin are expected to make up about 1 out of 5 workers in 2026. See 

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_301.htm.

• Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) (2009 chained dollars) is projected to grow at an annual 

rate of 2.0 percent from 2016 to 2026. Projected GDP growth is faster than the annual rate of 1.4 

percent from 2006 to 2016, but slower than the 3.3 percent annual growth achieved from 1996 to 

2006. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_402.htm.

• Increased labor productivity will contribute to faster GDP growth. Labor productivity is 

projected to grow 1.6 percent annually from 2016 to 2026: faster than the 1.2 percent annual 

growth from 2006 to 2016, but slower than the 2.8 percent annual increase from 1996 to 2006. 

See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_411.htm. 

Industry Employment

• Total employment is projected to grow by 11.5 million jobs over the 2016–26 decade, reaching

167.6 million jobs in 2026. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_201.htm. 

• Industry employment is projected to grow at a rate of 0.7 percent per year from 2016 to 2026, 

faster than the 0.5 percent annual rate from 2006 to 2016 but much slower than rates seen during 

the decades leading up to the 2007–09 recession. 

• About 9 out of 10 new jobs are projected to be added in the service-providing sector from 2016 

to 2026, resulting in more than 10.5 million new jobs, or 0.8 percent annual growth. The goodsproducing sector is expected to increase by 219,000 jobs, growing at a rate of 0.1 percent per 

year over the projections decade. 

1.2%

0.5%

0.6%

1.3%

1.0%

0.9%

1.3%

0.6%

0.7%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1996-2006 2006-16 Projected 2016-26

Chart 3. Annual growth rate of the population, labor force, 

and employment, by decade, 1996 to projected 2026

Labor force

Civilian non-institutional population age 16 and over

Employment

Annual rate of change
- 4 - 

• Employment in the health care and social assistance sector is projected to add nearly 4.0 million 

jobs by 2026, about one-third of all new jobs. The share of health care and social assistance

employment is projected to increase from 12.2 percent in 2016 to 13.8 percent in 2026, 

becoming the largest major sector in 2026. 

Occupational Employment 

• Occupational employment is expected to increase by 7.4 percent between 2016 and 2026. All 

occupational groups are expected to add jobs over the projections decade except for the 

production occupations group (-4.3 percent), and the farming, fishing and forestry occupations 

group (-0.3 percent). See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_101.htm. 

• Healthcare support occupations (23.6 percent) and healthcare practitioners and technical 

occupations (15.3 percent) are projected to be among the fastest growing occupational groups 

during the 2016–26 projections decade. These two occupational groups—which account for 13 

of the 30 fastest growing occupations from 2016 to 2026—are projected to contribute about onefifth of all new jobs by 2026. Factors such as the aging baby-boom population, longer life 

expectancies, and growing rates of chronic conditions will drive continued demand for 

healthcare services.

-0.6%

-0.2%

0.1%

0.2%

0.2%

0.3%

0.4%

0.5%

0.6%

0.7%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.3%

1.4%

1.9%

Manufacturing

Federal government

Utilities

Information

Wholesale trade

Retail trade

State and local government

Other services

Financial activities

Transportation and warehousing

Leisure and hospitality

Professional and business services

Construction

Educational services, private

Mining

Health care and social assistance

Chart 4. Projected percent change 

in industry employment, 2016-26

Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment, projected 2016-26

Total nonagricultural 

wage and salary 

annual growth = 0.7%

Service providing

Goods producing
- 5 - 

• Several other occupational groups are projected to experience faster than average employment 

growth, including personal care and service occupations (19.1 percent), community and social 

service occupations (14.5 percent), and computer and mathematical occupations (13.7 percent). 

• Of the 30 fastest growing detailed occupations, 18 typically require some level of postsecondary 

education for entry. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_103.htm. 

• Employment in 647 detailed occupations is projected to grow, while employment in 168 detailed 

occupations is projected to decline. See www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_102.htm. 

More Information 

• The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about 575 detailed 

occupations in 325 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. Each 

profile features the 2016–26 projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work 

activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more. 

• Select profiles in the OOH now include career videos produced by U.S. Department of Labor’s 

CareerOneStop. Links to videos appear on the Summary tab of profiles to the right of the Quick 

Facts box. In addition, the wage information in the OOH is now updated on an annual basis. The 

OOH reflects May 2016 wages from the Occupational Employment Statistics (OES) program, 

and will be updated with May 2017 wages in the spring of 2018. See www.bls.gov/oes/. 

• The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh. 

7.4

11.0

13.7

14.5

15.3

19.1

23.6

0 5 10 15 20 25

Total, all occupations

Construction and extraction occupations

Computer and mathematical occupations

Community and social service occupations

Healthcare practitioners and technical

occupations

Personal care and service occupations

Healthcare support occupations

Percent

Chart 5. Projected percent change, by select occupational 

groups, 2016-26
- 6 - 

• A graphic representation of projections highlights appears in the Career Outlook online, 

available at www.bls.gov/careeroutlook. 

• Detailed information on the 2016–26 projections appears in the Monthly Labor Review, at

www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/projections-overview-and-highlights-2016-26.htm. 

• Tables with detailed, comprehensive projections are available online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm. 

• Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm. 

Information from this news release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: (800) 877-8339. 
Technical Note

Every 2 years, BLS publishes projections for the labor force, 

macroeconomy, industry employment, and occupational

employment. More information is available online:

• Labor force:

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_labor_force.htm

• Macroeconomy:

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_aggregate_economy.htm

• Industry employment:

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_industry_out_and_emp.htm

• Occupational Employment:

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_data_occupational_data.htm

The projections data provide an overview of expected 

changes in the economy over a 10-year period. The 

projections are focused on long-term structural trends of the 

economy and do not try to anticipate future business cycle

activity. To meet this objective, specific assumptions are 

made about the labor force, macroeconomy, industry 

employment, and occupational employment. Critical to the 

production of these projections is the assumption of full 

employment for the economy in the projected year. The 

projections are not intended to be a forecast of what the 

future will be but instead are a description of what would be 

expected to happen under these specific assumptions and 

circumstances. When these assumptions are not realized, 

actual values will differ from projections.

The difference between projected changes in the labor force 

and in employment does not necessarily imply a labor 

shortage or surplus. The BLS projections assume labor 

market equilibrium; that is, one in which labor supply meets 

labor demand except for some level of frictional 

unemployment. In addition, the employment and labor force 

measures use different definitional and statistical concepts. 

For example, employment is a count of jobs, and one person 

may hold more than one job. Labor force is a count of 

employed people, and a person is counted only once 

regardless of how many jobs he or she holds.

For more information, visit the Employment Projections 

Methodology page online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_projections_methods.htm.

Frequently asked questions about the employment 

projections are online at 

www.bls.gov/emp/ep_faq_001.htm.

Users and Uses

The BLS projections are used by high school and college 

students, their teachers and parents, jobseekers, career

counselors, and guidance specialists to determine jobs in 

demand. The projections also are used by state workforce 

agencies to prepare state and area projections that, together 

with the national projections, are widely used by 

policymakers to make decisions about education and 

training, funding allocations, and program offerings. These 

projections of jobs in demand help improve the alignment 

between education and training and the hiring demands of 

business. In addition, other federal agencies, researchers, 

and academics use the projections to understand trends in 

the economy and labor market.

Projections of industry and occupational employment are 

prepared by each state, using input from the BLS national 

projections. State projections data are available at

Projections Central www.projectionscentral.com.