R$visions in the Current Population

Survey Effective January 1997

Gloria Peterson Green

Effective with the release of January 1997 data, revisions

were introduced into the population controls used for

the Current Population Survey (CPS). Such revisionS. are

periodically introduced into the survey to incorporate the

latest information available on population growth trends.

The current revisions primarily reflect improvements iP the

estimation of the demograpbic characteristics of various

sub-components of migration into and out of the United

States. This article briefly describes the revisions and provides an indication of their effect on national labor force

estimates.

Nature of the revisions

Each month, CPS estimates of the population are adjusted

to conform with independent population controls. In this

year's annual updating of national post-censal population

estimates by the Bureau of the Census. two projected components of population change-undocumented migration to

the United States and the emigration of legal residents from

the United States-were revised. Because the projections

of these components date from the last decade, 'the changes

affected population estimates for the entire interval after

April 1990; however, they are only being carried into the

CPS population controls for January 1997 forward

Specifically, these revisions affected the distributions of

both components by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin and,

consequently, the magnitude of the estimated population 16

years and over. The revisions in the two migration components tended to reinforce each other, relative to their effect

on the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and over.

In the case of net undocumented immigration, new data on

the characteristics of undocumented residents legalizing their

residency status under provisions of the Immigration

Gloria Peterson Green is an editor of Employment and Earnings and Chief

of the Data Users and Publication Services Group, Bureau afLabor Statistics. Infonnation for this article was provided by staff of the Bureau of the

Census.

Reform and ControlAct of 1986 (IRCA) are reflected in the

population projections for the first time. This change

resulted in Iisubstantial increase in the Hispanic-origin share

of net undocumented immigration, with the greatest effect

for males 16 to 39 years. This upward revision was balanced by a dOwnward revision in the share of non-Hispanic

whites. In the case of emigration, a change in the methodology for es~ting the age distribution yielded a decrease

in the proportion ofemigrants16 years and over, and thus, a

corresponding increase in the population 16 years and over

for both Asian. and Pacific Islanders and persons of Hispanic-origin.

Effect of the revisions on national estimates

Table 1 provides population and labor force estimates by

age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for December 1996 based

on the old and revised population controls.' The introduction of these controls into the CPS estimation procedure

results in an increase in the population and labor force estimates and represents a break in series with data for prior

years. As the table indicates, the civilian noninstitutional

population 16 years and over was raised by about 470,000,

primarily men. The labor force and employment levels were

increased by about 320,000 and 290,000, respectively. The

Hispanic-origin population and labor force estimates were

raised by about 450,000 and 350,000, respectively, and Hispanic employment by 325,000. The increases in the overall

and Hispanic-origin estimates were largest among the 20-

to 54-year-old age group. Unemployment rates and other

percentages of labor market participation were not affected

by the revisions.

BLS bas no plans to revise the national historical labor

force estimates at this time.

IThe "old" December 1996 data are weighted noncomposited estimates

and differ from the official weighted composite estimates previously published.

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Table 1. PopulaUon and labor force esUmates, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, using old and revised 1990census-based

populaUon controls, December 1996;not seasonally adjusted

(Numbers In thousands)

Total Whit8 Black Hispanic origin

Characteristic Old A8IIi8ed Differ· Old A8IIIsed Differ· Old AevIaed Differ· Old A8IIIsed DRIer·

controls' controls ence controls' controls enee controls' controls ence controls' controls ence

Civilian nonlnltltUtlonal

population

Total, 16 years and over ••••••••••.••..•.•••••.•••.••201,636 202,104 468 169,044 169,313 269 23,794 23,812 18 19,505 19,957 452

16to 19years .•••.•••.••••••••..••••••••.•••.••••.•.•15,141 15,245 104 12,008 12,096 88 2,391 2,393 2 1,988 2,082 96

20 to 24 years ••••.•••••••••.••••.••••••••..••••••.•.•17,369 17,548 159 13,824 13,956 132 2,540 2,547 7 2,502 2,608 106

25 to 54 years ••••.••••.••••••••••••.•••••.••••••••.•• 118,122 118,263 141 96,488 96,523 35 14,111 14,109 ·2 11,926 12,150 224

55 years and over ••••••••••••••.•.•••••••••••.•••••52,984 53,049 65 48,724 48,738 14 4,751 4,764 13 3,090 3,117 27

Men ••••••••.••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••••.••.••••• 96,742 97,165 423 81,878 82,188 310 10,668 10,671 5 9,741 10,177 436

Woman ••••••••••...••.••.••.•.•••..•••••••.••••.••.....104,694 104,940 48 67,165 67,125 -40 13,126 13,142 14 9,763 9,781 16

ClYlllan labor force

Total, 16 years and over ••••.•••••••.••••..••••••••••134,673 134,990 317 113,696 113,691 195 15,269 15,274 5 13,163 13,535 352

18to 19years .••..•....•..•.....•••.••...••..•••.•••., 7,482 7,532 50 6,348 6,392 44 870 871 1 821 886 45

20 to 24 years .•..•.•••.•••.......•.......•.•..••..•.• 13,231 13,366 135 10,830 10,948 116 1,751 1,758 5 1,890 1,982 92

25 to 54 years ..•...••...•.•..••...•••...•.•.••..•••.. 97,722 97,842 120 82,141 82,176 37 11,260 11,257 -3 9,389 9,593 204

55 years and over ......•••...••.••••...•....••...•• 16,238 16,251 13 14,376 14,374 -2 1,388 1,390 2 1,083 1,094 11

Men ••••••••••..••••••.•.•.•.••••••••••.•••••••••••••••••• 71,950 72,261 311 81,751 81,988 235 7,192 7,193 1 7,793 8,138 345

Women ••.••••.••••.•••.•••••.••.•.•••..•..•••..••••.•.•62,723 62,729 8 51,944 51,905 -39 8,G76 8,082 6 5,390 5,397 7

Employed

Total, 16 years and over .•..•••...••...••..••••••••.. 127,896 128,188 292 108,769 108,945 176 13,742 13,746 4 12,245 12,571 326

16to 19years •..••••.•••.•••••••••.••••..••.••••...•• 8,318 6,360 42 5,529 5,568 37 585 588 1 659 695 38

20 to 24 years •••.••••.••.•..••.•..••...••..•••.•..•.• 12,131 12,255 124 10,091 10,199 106 1,440 1,444 4 1,717 1,802 65

25 to 54 years •...••....••...••....•...•...•••••••..•• 93,694 93,808 114 79,205 79,239 34 10,366 10,363 -3 8,855 9,049 194

55 years and over •••...•....••..••...•••.••••..•••. 15,753 15,765 12 13,943 13,941 -2 1,351 1,353 2 1,015 1,026 11

Men ..••••..••...•.....•...•....•...••....•..•••...••..•.• 68,376 68,683 287 59,076 59,291 215 6,471 6,470 -1 7,321 7,640 319

Women ..••...••...•.•..••...••...;...•••...•........... 59,520 59,524 4 49,693 49.655 -38 7.271 7.275 4 4.925 4.931 6

Unemplo)oed

Total. 16 years and over ............•.•..•.•.•••....• 6.776 6.802 26 4.927 4,948 19 1.527 1.528 1 938 964 26

16 to 19 years ••...•....••••..•...•••...•....••...•... 1.164 1.172 8 818 826 8 265 265 0 162 171 9

20 to 24 years ...••....•••..••..••....••..•.•....•...• 1.100 1.111 11 739 748 9 312 312 0 173 181 8

25 to 54 years ••••••.•••••••...••..•••.•••••.••..••••. 4.028 4.034 8 2,937 2.939 2 894 894 0 534 544 10

55 years and over •••.••••..•••...••••••.••••••..••• 485 488 1 433 433 0 37 37 0 88 69 1

Men ••••••••••••••.•••••••••••••.••••.••••..••••••••..•••. 3574 3.598 24 2.675 2.695 20 722 722 0 473 498 25

Woman .••..•.••.•..•.•.••••..••...•••••.•...••..••...•• 3.203 3,204 1 2,251 2,250 -1 806 806 0 465 468 1

Unemployment rate

Total. 16 years and over •..••..••....••....•...•..•.• 5.0 5.0 0 4.3 4.3 0 10.0 10.0 0 7.1 7.1 0

16to 19years •....••..•••...•....••..•••..•••...••..• 15.6 15.6 0 12.9 12.9 0 32.7 32.7 0 19.8 19.7 -.1

20 to 24 years .•.....•....•...•••.•.•........•••...... 8.3 8.3 0 6.8 6.8 0 17.8 17.8 0 9.2 9.1 -.1

25 to 54 years •••..••....••...••....•...••.•.••....•.• 4.1 4.1 0 3.6 3.6 0 7.9 7.9 0 5.7 5.7 0

55 years and over .....•.......•...•.••.•••...•.•..• 3.0 3.0 0 3.0 3.0 0 2.7 2.7 0 6.3 8.3 0

Men ..•.•...•••....•....••...••...••..••••.•••..•••...••. 5.0 5.0 0 4.3 4.3 0 10.0 10.0 0 8.1 6.1 0

Women ....••....•....•••..•••..••••••••...••...•...•••• 5.1 5.1 0 4.3 4.3 0 10.0 10.0 0 8.6 8.8 0

'These are weighted noncomposited estimates and differ from the official

weighted composited estimates previously published lor Dec:embef 1996.

totals because data lor the "other J8C8s" group are not presented and HispanIcs are Included In both the white and black population groups. Detail may not

sum to totals due to rounding. (

NOTE: DetaIl lor the above J8C8 and HIspanIc-orlgln group whl not sum to

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