For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Tuesday, September 1, 2020 USDL-20-1646 

Technical information: ep-info@bls.gov • www.bls.gov/emp 

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 • PressOffice@bls.gov

(NOTE: This news release was reissued on September 11, 2020, correcting a label in chart 

5. The label previously read ‘Total nonagricultural wage and salary employment annual 

growth = 3.7%’, but now correctly reads, ‘Total employment growth = 3.7%’. No data 

were impacted.)

EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS — 2019-2029

Employment is projected to grow from 162.8 million to 168.8 million over the 2019-29 decade, 

an increase of 6.0 million jobs, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. This reflects 

an annual growth rate of 0.4 percent, slower than the 2009-19 annual growth rate of 1.3 percent, 

which was bolstered by recovery from the 2007-09 Great Recession. The healthcare and social 

assistance sector is projected to add the most new jobs, and 6 of the 10 fastest growing 

occupations are related to healthcare (see charts 1 and 5). Growth in real Gross Domestic Product 

(GDP) is projected to be slower (1.8 percent annually) from 2019 to 2029, compared to the 

previous decade (2.3 percent annually). Meanwhile labor productivity is projected to increase 

from 1.1 percent annually over the 2009 to 2019 period, to 1.8 percent annually from 2019 to 

2029. 

 

Occupational Outlook Handbook

The projections are the foundation of the BLS Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH), one of 

the nation’s most widely used career information resources. The OOH reflects BLS employment 

projections for the 2019-29 decade. The updated OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh . 
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Highlights of the BLS projections for the labor force, macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment are included below. 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Pandemic Impact on Employment Projections Data

The 2019-29 projections do not include impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and response 

efforts. The BLS Employment Projections are developed using models based on historical data, 

which in this set of projections cover the time period through 2019; all input data therefore 

precede the pandemic. In addition, the 2019-29 projections were finalized in the spring of 2020 

when there was still significant uncertainty about the duration and impacts of the pandemic. 

The BLS Employment Projections are long-term projections intended to capture structural 

change in the economy, not cyclical fluctuations. As such, they are not intended to capture the 

impacts of the recession that began in February 2020. However, besides the immediate 

recessionary impacts, the pandemic may cause new structural changes to the economy. BLS 

releases new employment projections annually, and subsequent projections will incorporate new 

information on economic structural changes as it becomes available.

In order to provide more information about potential impacts before the release of the 2020-30 

projections, BLS is developing alternate scenarios for the 2019-29 projection period that 

encompass possible impacts from the pandemic. Comparison of these alternate scenarios with 

the baseline projections released here will demonstrate how changes in consumer behavior 

caused by the pandemic may alter the projections for detailed occupations and industries. An 

analysis of these scenarios will be released in a Monthly Labor Review article later in 2020. 

Population and Labor Force

• The civilian noninstitutional population growth rate is projected to decline slightly, from 0.9 

percent annually in 2009-19 to 0.8 percent annually in 2019-29 (see chart 2). This results in 

an increase of 21.2 million over the 2019-29 projections horizon to a level of 280.4 million. 

1.2%

1.1%

1.3%

0.9%

0.8%

1.7%

1.2%

1.0%

0.6%

0.5%

1.9% 1.8%

0.2%

1.4%

0.4%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

1.6%

1.8%

2.0%

1979-89 1989-99 1999-2009 2009-19 Projected 2019-29

Chart 2. Annual rates of change in population, labor force, and 

employment, 1979-2019 and projected 2019-29

Civilian noninstitutional population aged 16 and over Labor force Employment
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• The labor force is expected to increase by 8.0 million from 163.5 million in 2019 to 171.5 

million in 2029. The participation rate is projected to decline from 63.1 percent in 2019 to 

61.2 percent in 2029. The decline in labor force participation is due to the aging of the babyboom generation, a continuation of the declining trend in men’s participation, and a slight 

decline in women’s participation (see charts 3 and 4). 

16.0% 13.9% 12.9% 11.4%

23.1% 21.6% 22.7% 21.5%

27.2%

22.2% 20.8% 22.5%

21.1%

23.5% 20.1% 19.5%

12.7% 18.8% 23.4% 25.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1999 2009 2019 Projected 2029

Chart 3. Percent distribution of labor force by age group, 

1999-2019 and projected 2029 (Note: Data may not sum to 100.0 due to rounding)

16 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 and older

69.2 66.1

63.1 61.2

57.4 56.6

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1979 1989 1999 2009 2019 Projected 2029

Percent 

Chart 4. Labor force participation rate, 

1979-2019 and projected 2029

Men Total Women
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• By 2029, all baby boomers will be at least 65 years old. The increasing share of people age 

65 years and older contributes to slower projected growth in the labor force, as well as a 

continued decline in the labor force participation rate, since older people are less likely to 

participate in the labor force. 

Macroeconomy

• Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to continue growing during the 2019-29 

period, although at a slower rate than it has historically, at 1.8 percent annually compounded 

through the projections period. 

• Based on the outlook for business investment and efficiency gains anticipated in the use of 

labor and capital inputs, productivity is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.8 percent 

from 2019 to 2029. This is faster than the 1.1 percent growth from 2009 to 2019. The 

rebound in productivity growth represents a more normal pattern of growth over the next 

decade.

Industry Employment

• Total employment is projected to grow 3.7 percent over the 2019-29 projections period, 

slower than prior projection periods. Slower labor force growth constrains the projected 

growth of total employment. 

• Five out of the 20 fastest growing industries for the next decade are in the healthcare and 

social assistance sector, the fastest growing major sector in the economy (see chart 5). 

Factors that are expected to contribute to the large increase include increased demand to care 

for the aging baby-boom population, longer life expectancies, and continued growth in the 

number of patients with chronic conditions. 
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• Technological advancements are expected to support rapid employment growth in 

professional, business, and scientific services sectors, including computer systems design and 

related services as well as management, scientific, and technical consulting services. 

• The manufacturing sector is projected to lose 444,800 jobs, the most of any sector over the 

projections decade. This sector also contains 12 of the 20 industries projected to have the 

most rapid employment declines. Factors contributing to the loss of manufacturing jobs 

include the adoption of new productivity-enhancing technologies, such as robotics and 

international competition.

• As e-commerce continues to grow in popularity, retail trade is projected to lose 368,300 jobs 

over the 2019-29 decade. 

Occupational Employment 

• Occupational groups in which employment is projected to grow markedly faster than the 

average include healthcare support occupations, community and social service occupations, 

and computer and mathematical occupations (see chart 6). 

• Healthcare occupations and those associated with healthcare (including mental health) 

account for 13 of the 30 fastest growing occupations from 2019 to 2029. Demand for 

healthcare services by aging baby boomers, along with people who have chronic conditions, 

will drive the projected employment growth. 

22.6

12.5

12.1

9.1

7.7

7.3

3.7

0 5 10 15 20 25

Healthcare support occupations

Community and social service occupations

Computer and mathematical occupations

Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations

Personal care and service occupations

Food preparation and serving related occupations

Total, all occupations

Chart 6. Projected percent change by 

select occupational groups, 2019-29
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• Several of the fastest growing healthcare occupations—including nurse practitioners, 

occupational therapy assistants, and physician assistants—are projected to be in greater 

demand as team-based healthcare models are increasingly used to deliver healthcare services.

• Computer occupations are expected to see fast job growth as strong demand is expected for 

IT security and software development, and as new products associated with the Internet of 

Things (IoT) are developed. These occupations include software developers as well as 

information security analysts. 

• Technological changes facilitating automation and e-commerce are expected to result in 

declining employment for office and administrative support occupations and for sales 

occupations. 

More Information 

The Occupational Outlook Handbook (OOH) includes information about over 500 detailed 

occupations in over 300 occupational profiles, covering about 4 out of 5 jobs in the economy. 

Each profile features the 2019-29 projections, along with assessments of the job outlook, work 

activities, wages, education and training requirements, and more. 

• The OOH is available online at www.bls.gov/ooh . 

• Detailed information on the 2019-29 projections will appear in the Monthly Labor Review. 

• Tables with detailed, comprehensive statistics used in preparing the projections are available 

online at www.bls.gov/emp/tables.htm . 

• Definitions for terms used in this news release are available in the BLS Glossary at 

www.bls.gov/bls/glossary.htm . 

Information from this news release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon 

request. Voice phone: (202) 691-5200; Federal Relay Services: 1 (800) 877-8339. 
Technical Note

BLS publishes projections for the labor force, 

the macroeconomy, industry employment, and 

occupational employment. More information is 

available online:

• Labor force:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/labor-force.htm

• Macroeconomy:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/aggregateeconomy.htm

• Industry employment:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/industry-out-andemp.htm

• Occupational Employment:

https://www.bls.gov/emp/data/occupationaldata.htm

The projections data provide an overview of 

expected changes in the economy over a 10-year 

period. The projections are focused on long-term 

structural trends of the economy and do not try 

to anticipate future business cycle activity. To 

meet this objective, specific assumptions are 

made about the labor force, macroeconomy, 

industry employment, and occupational 

employment. Critical to the production of these 

projections is the assumption of full employment 

for the economy in the projected year. The 

projections are not intended to be a forecast of 

what the future will be but instead are a 

description of what would be expected to happen 

under these specific assumptions and 

circumstances. When these assumptions are not 

realized, actual values will differ from 

projections.

The difference between projected changes in the 

labor force and in employment does not 

necessarily imply a labor shortage or surplus. 

The BLS projections assume labor market 

equilibrium; that is, one in which labor supply 

meets labor demand except for some level of 

frictional unemployment. In addition, the 

employment and labor force measures use 

different definitional and statistical concepts. 

For example, employment is a count of jobs, and 

one person may hold more than one job. Labor 

force is a count of employed people, and a 

person is counted only once regardless of how 

many jobs he or she holds. 

For more information, visit the Employment 

Projections Methodology page online at 

https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/emp/home.htm . 

Frequently asked questions about the 

employment projections are online at 

https://www.bls.gov/emp/frequently-askedquestions.htm .

Users and Uses

The BLS projections are used by high school 

and college students, their teachers and parents, 

jobseekers, career counselors, and guidance 

specialists to determine jobs in demand. The 

projections also are used by state workforce 

agencies to prepare state and area projections 

that, together with the national projections, are 

widely used by policymakers to make decisions 

about education and training, funding 

allocations, and program offerings. These 

projections of jobs in demand help improve the 

alignment between education and training and 

the hiring needs of business. In addition, other 

federal agencies, researchers, and academics use 

the projections to understand trends in the 

economy and labor market. 

Projections of industry and occupational 

employment are prepared by each state, using 

input from the BLS National projections. State 

projections data are available at Projections 

Central http://www.projectionscentral.com .