Bureau of Labor Statistics Washington, D.C. 20212

Internet: http://www.bls.gov/emp USDL 04-148

Technical Information: (202) 691-5700 For release: 10 A.M. EST

Media Contact: (202) 691-5902 Wednesday, February 11, 2004

 

BLS RELEASES 2002-12 EMPLOYMENT PROJECTIONS

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Department of Labor, today released 

projections on future job growth by industry and occupation and on the likely composition of the 

workforce pursuing those jobs.

The 10-year projections of economic growth, employment by industry and occupation, and 

labor force are widely used in career guidance, in planning education and training programs, and in 

studying long-range employment trends. Covering the 2002-12 decade, these projections reflect

the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) system and the 2002 North American 

Industry Classification System (NAICS).

Employment

Over the 2002-12 decade, total employment is projected to increase by 21.3 million jobs, or

15 percent. Over the previous decade (1992-2002), total employment grew by 20.7 million jobs 

but at a slightly faster rate, 17 percent. (The definition of employment used in these projections 

differs from the definitions used in other BLS programs. See table 1.)

Industry employment

• Employment growth will be concentrated in the service-providing sector of the economy. 

Education and health services and professional and business services represent the industry 

divisions with the strongest projected employment growth: projected to grow twice as fast as 

the overall economy. Information, leisure and hospitality, and transportation and warehousing 

are other service-providing industries that are projected to grow faster than average. (See table 

1.) 

• Construction is the only goods-producing sector in which employment is projected to grow. 

Manufacturing, however, is expected to decline by 1 percent, a much smaller decline than what 

occurred in the previous decade. Nonetheless, employment in goods-producing industries is 

expected to decrease from 16 percent to 14 percent of total employment. Apparel 

News United States

Department 

of Labor
manufacturing, textile mills, and computer and electronic product manufacturing are the goodsproducing industries with the largest projected employment declines.

• The 10 fastest growing detailed industries, led by software publishers, are in the serviceproviding sector. (See table 3a.) 

Occupational employment

• Professional and related occupations and service occupations—two groups at opposite ends of 

educational and earnings ranges—are projected to increase the fastest and to add the most 

jobs, accounting for more than half of total job growth over the 2002-12 decade. (See table 

2.)

• Construction and extraction occupations are projected to grow at the same rate as the average 

for all occupations—15 percent.

• Office and administrative support occupations, production occupations, and farming, fishing, 

and forestry occupations are projected to grow much more slowly than average.

• Nine of the 10 fastest growing occupations are health or computer (information technology) 

occupations. (See table 3b.)

• The 10 occupations adding the most jobs employ a large number of workers and come from a 

wide range of occupational groups. (See table 3c.)

Education and training categories

• An associate or bachelor's degree is the most significant source of postsecondary education or 

training for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations. (See table 3b.)

• Short-term on-the-job training is the most significant source of postsecondary education or 

training for 6 of the 10 occupations with the largest job growth. (See table 3c.)

Labor force

• The civilian labor force is projected to increase by 17.4 million over the 2002-12 decade, 

reaching 162.3 million by 2012. This 12-percent increase is greater than the 11.3-percent 

increase over the previous decade, 1992-2002, when the labor force grew by 14.4 million. (See 

table 4.) Changes in the demographic composition of the labor force are expected because of 

changes both in the composition of the population and in the rates of labor force participation 

across demographic groups.

• The projected growth of the labor force will be affected by the aging of the baby-boom 

generation—persons born between 1946 and 1964. In 2012, baby-boomers will be 48 to 66 

years old. The number of workers in this age group is expected to increase significantly over 

the 2002-12 decade. The labor force will continue to age, with the number of workers in the 

55-and-older group projected to grow by 49.3 percent, 4 times the 12-percent growth projected 
for the overall labor force. In 2012, youths—those between the ages of 16 and 24—will 

constitute 15 percent of the labor force, and prime-age workers—those between the ages of 25 

and 54—will make up 66 percent of the labor force. The share of the 55-and-older age group 

will increase from 14.3 percent to 19.1 percent of the labor force. 

 

• The labor force participation rates of women in nearly all age groups are projected to increase. 

The number of women in the labor force is projected to grow by 14.3 percent, faster than the 

10-percent growth projected for men. As a result, women's share of the labor force is expected 

to increase by 1 percent, from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5 percent by 2012. In contrast, men's 

share is projected to decline by 1 percent—from 53.5 percent to 52.5 percent—over the 2002-

12 decade.

• By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is expected to reach 23.8 million, due to faster population 

growth resulting from a younger population, higher fertility rates, and increased immigration 

levels. Despite relatively slow growth, white non-Hispanics will remain the largest group, 

composing 66 percent of the labor force. Asians will continue to be the fastest growing of the 

four labor force groups.

Notes

More detailed information on the 2002-12 projections appears in five articles in the February 2004 

issue of the Monthly Labor Review, published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department 

of Labor. A graphic presentation of the highlights of the projections will appear in the 

forthcoming Winter 2003-04 Occupational Outlook Quarterly.

The Monthly Labor Review and Occupational Outlook Quarterly are sold by the U.S. Government 

Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. The Review costs $49 a year; single copies are $15. 

The Quarterly costs $15 a year; single copies are $6. Make checks payable to the Superintendent 

of Documents.

Information in this release will be made available to sensory impaired individuals upon request. 

Voice phone: 202-691-5200; TDD message referral phone: 1-800-877-8339.
1992 2002 2012 1992-2002 2002-12 1992-2002 2002-12 1992 2002 2012 1992-2002 2002-12

Total 1

123,325 144,014 165,319 20,689 21,305 16.8 14.8 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.6 1.4

Nonfarm wage and salary 109,526 131,063 152,690 21,537 21,627 19.7 16.5 88.8 91.0 92.4 1.8 1.5

Goods-Producing, excluding agriculture 22,016 22,550 23,346 534 796 2.4 3.5 17.9 15.7 14.1 0.2 0.3

Mining 610 512 451 -98 -61 -16.1 -11.8 0.5 0.4 0.3 -1.7 -1.3

Construction 4,608 6,732 7,745 2,124 1,014 46.1 15.1 3.7 4.7 4.7 3.9 1.4

Manufacturing 16,799 15,307 15,149 -1,492 -158 -8.9 -1.0 13.6 10.6 9.2 -0.9 -0.1

Service-Providing 87,510 108,513 129,344 21,003 20,831 24.0 19.2 71.0 75.3 78.2 2.2 1.8

Utilities 726 600 565 -126 -34 -17.4 -5.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 -1.9 -0.6

Wholesale trade 5,110 5,641 6,279 531 638 10.4 11.3 4.1 3.9 3.8 1.0 1.1

Retail trade 12,828 15,047 17,129 2,219 2,082 17.3 13.8 10.4 10.4 10.4 1.6 1.3

Transportation and warehousing 3,462 4,205 5,120 744 914 21.5 21.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 2.0 2.0

Information 2,641 3,420 4,052 779 632 29.5 18.5 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 1.7

Financial activities 6,540 7,843 8,806 1,303 964 19.9 12.3 5.3 5.4 5.3 1.8 1.2

Professional and business services 10,969 16,010 20,876 5,040 4,866 45.9 30.4 8.9 11.1 12.6 3.9 2.7

Education and health services 11,891 16,184 21,329 4,293 5,145 36.1 31.8 9.6 11.2 12.9 3.1 2.8

Leisure and hospitality 9,437 11,969 14,104 2,532 2,135 26.8 17.8 7.7 8.3 8.5 2.4 1.7

Other services 5,120 6,105 7,065 985 960 19.2 15.7 4.2 4.2 4.3 1.8 1.5

Federal government 3,111 2,767 2,779 -344 12 -11.1 0.4 2.5 1.9 1.7 -1.2 0.0

State and local government 15,675 18,722 21,240 3,047 2,518 19.4 13.4 12.7 13.0 12.8 1.8 1.3

Agriculture 2

2,639 2,245 1,905 -394 -340 -14.9 -15.1 2.1 1.6 1.2 -1.6 -1.6

Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid 

family workers 9,009 9,018 9,162 10 144 0.1 1.6 7.3 6.3 5.5 0.0 0.2

Secondary wage and salary jobs in 

agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and 

private household industries 3 178 143 128 -35 -15 -19.8 -10.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 -2.2 -1.1

Secondary jobs as a self-employed or unpaid 

family worker 41,973 1,545 1,434 -428 -111 -21.7 -7.2 1.6 1.1 0.9 -2.4 -0.7

3. Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries.

4. Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or unpaid family worker.

1. Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the BLS Current Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, 

and hunting are from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

2. Includes agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employment Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are 

excluded.

Table 1. Employment by major industry division, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

Industry division Employment Numeric change Percent change Percent distribution Annual growth rate 

(percent)
2002 2012 2002 2012

Total, all occupations 144,014 165,319 100.0 100.0 21,305 14.8

Management occupations 10,056 11,277 7.0 6.8 1,221 12.1

Business and financial operations occupations 5,445 6,606 3.8 4.0 1,162 21.3

Professional and related occupations 27,687 34,147 19.2 20.7 6,459 23.3

Computer and mathematical occupations 3,018 4,069 2.1 2.5 1,051 34.8

Architecture and engineering occupations 2,587 2,809 1.8 1.7 222 8.6

Life, physical, and social science occupations 1,237 1,450 0.9 0.9 212 17.2

Community and social services occupations 2,190 2,764 1.5 1.7 574 26.2

Legal occupations 1,168 1,357 0.8 0.8 190 16.2

Education, training, and library occupations 8,530 10,639 5.9 6.4 2,109 24.7

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations 2,376 2,769 1.7 1.7 393 16.5

Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations 6,580 8,288 4.6 5.0 1,708 26.0

Service occupations 26,569 31,905 18.5 19.3 5,336 20.1

Healthcare support occupations 3,310 4,452 2.3 2.7 1,143 34.5

Protective service occupations 3,116 3,885 2.2 2.4 769 24.7

Food preparation and serving related occupations 10,200 11,807 7.1 7.1 1,607 15.8

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations 5,485 6,386 3.8 3.9 901 16.4

Personal care and service occupations 4,458 5,375 3.1 3.3 917 20.6

Sales and related occupations 15,260 17,231 10.6 10.4 1,971 12.9

Office and administrative support occupations 23,851 25,464 16.6 15.4 1,613 6.8

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations 1,072 1,107 0.7 0.7 35 3.3

Construction and extraction occupations 7,292 8,388 5.1 5.1 1,096 15.0

Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations 5,696 6,472 4.0 3.9 776 13.6

Production occupations 11,258 11,612 7.8 7.0 354 3.2

Transportation and material moving occupations 9,828 11,111 6.8 6.7 1,282 13.1

NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.

Software publishers 256.0 429.7 173.7 67.9

Management, scientific, and technical consulting services 731.8 1,137.4 405.6 55.4

Community care facilities for the elderly and residential care facilities, n.e.c. 695.3 1,077.6 382.3 55.0

Computer systems design and related services 1,162.7 1,797.7 635.0 54.6

Employment services 3,248.8 5,012.3 1,763.5 54.3

Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation services 1,269.3 1,866.6 597.3 47.1

Ambulatory health care services except offices of health practitioners 1,443.6 2,113.4 669.8 46.4

Water, sewage, and other systems 48.5 71.0 22.5 46.4

Internet services, data processing, and other information services 528.8 773.1 244.3 46.2

Child day care services 734.2 1,050.3 316.1 43.1

NOTE: n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

Medical assistants 365 579 215 59

Network systems and data communications analysts 186 292 106 57

Physician assistants 63 94 31 49

Social and human service assistants 305 454 149 49

Home health aides 580 859 279 48

Medical records and health information technicians 147 216 69 47

Physical therapist aides 37 54 17 46

Computer software engineers, applications 394 573 179 46

Computer software engineers, systems software 281 409 128 45

Physical therapist assistants 50 73 22 45

1. An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. 

For more information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and 

Training Data, Bulletin 2542 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Jan. 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this publication.

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Short-term on-the-job training

Associate degree

Short-term on-the-job training

Bachelor's degree

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Bachelor's degree

Bachelor's degree

Moderate-term on-the-job training

Table 3a. The 10 industries with the fastest wage and salary employment growth, 2002-12

(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

2002 2012 Number Percent

Employment Change

Industry 

Percent

Change

Table 2. Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012

(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

Employment

Occupational group Number Percent Number Percent distribution

3.9

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education or 

training1

Table 3b. The 10 fastest growing occupations, 2002-12

(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

Occupation

Employment Change

2002 2012 Number

3.9

3.6

Annual growth rate 

(percent)

4.5

4.4

3.9

3.9

5.3

4.5

4.5
Registered nurses 2,284 2,908 623 27 Associate degree

Postsecondary teachers 1,581 2,184 603 38 Doctoral degree

Retail salespersons 4,076 4,672 596 15 Short-term on-the-job training

Customer service representatives 1,894 2,354 460 24 Moderate-term on-the-job training

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food 1,990 2,444 454 23 Short-term on-the-job training

Cashiers, except gaming 3,432 3,886 454 13 Short-term on-the-job training

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners 2,267 2,681 414 18 Short-term on-the-job training

General and operations managers 2,049 2,425 376 18 Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience

Waiters and waitresses 2,097 2,464 367 18 Short-term on-the-job training

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 1,375 1,718 343 25 Short-term on-the-job training

1990 

census 

weights

2000 

census 

weights

1990 

census 

weights

2000 

census 

weights

Total, 16 years and older 110,204 128,105 142,534 144,863 162,269 17,901 14,429 17,406 16.2 11.3 12.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 1.5 1.1 1.1

16 to 24 24,606 21,616 22,425 22,366 24,377 -2,990 809 2,011 -12.2 3.7 9.0 22.3 16.9 15.7 15.4 15.0 -1.3 0.4 0.9

25 to 54 70,506 91,429 99,865 101,720 106,866 20,923 8,436 5,146 29.7 9.2 5.1 64.0 71.4 70.1 70.2 65.9 2.6 0.9 0.5

55 and older 15,092 15,060 20,244 20,777 31,026 -32 5,184 10,249 -0.2 34.4 49.3 13.7 11.8 14.2 14.3 19.1 0.0 3.0 4.1

Men 62,450 69,964 76,052 77,500 85,252 7,514 6,088 7,751 12.0 8.7 10.0 56.7 54.6 53.4 53.5 52.5 1.1 0.8 1.0

Women 47,754 58,141 66,481 67,363 77,017 10,387 8,340 9,654 21.8 14.3 14.3 43.3 45.4 46.6 46.5 47.5 2.0 1.3 1.3

One race

White 96,143 108,837 118,569 120,150 130,358 12,694 9,732 10,208 13.2 8.9 8.5 87.2 85.0 83.2 82.9 80.3 1.2 0.9 0.8

Black or African American 11,331 14,162 16,834 16,564 19,765 2,831 2,672 3,201 25.0 18.9 19.3 10.3 11.1 11.8 11.4 12.2 2.3 1.7 1.8

Asian 2,730 5,106 7,130 5,949 8,971 2,376 2,024 3,022 87.0 39.6 50.8 2.5 4.0 5.0 4.1 5.5 6.5 3.4 4.2

All other groups1

n/a n/a n/a 2,200 3,175 n/a n/a 975 n/a n/a 44.3 n/a n/a n/a 1.5 2.0 n/a n/a 3.7

Hispanic or Latino 6,734 11,338 16,200 17,942 23,785 4,604 4,862 5,843 68.4 42.9 32.6 6.1 8.9 11.4 12.4 14.7 5.3 3.6 2.9

Other than Hispanic origin 103,470 116,767 126,334 126,921 138,484 13,297 9,567 11,562 12.9 8.2 9.1 93.9 91.1 88.6 87.6 85.3 1.2 0.8 0.9

White (only) non-Hispanic 89,630 98,724 103,360 103,348 106,237 9,094 4,636 2,889 10.1 4.7 2.8 81.3 77.1 72.5 71.3 65.5 1.0 0.5 0.3

Occupation 2002 2012 Number Percent

Annual growth rate 

(percent)

Most significant source of postsecondary 

education or training1

Table 4. Civilian labor force by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

(Numbers in thousands)

Percent distribution

1. An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more

 information about the categories, see Chapter II, "Selected Occupational Data, 2000 and Projected 2010" in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin 2542

(Bureau of Labor Statistics, January 2002), pp. 18-19, or in Bulletin 2572, the forthcoming 2004-05 edition of this publication.

Employment Change

Percent change

1982 1982-92

Table 3c. The 10 occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-12

(Numbers in thousands of jobs)

1982-92 1992-

2002 1992 2012 2002-12

The historical data for 2002 has been computed for "All other groups".

Data for 1982 and 1992 represents the "Asian & other" race category with 1990 census weights.

Data for 2002 and 2012 represents the "Asian only" race category with 2000 census weights.

Group 2002

Level Numeric change

2002-12

1. The “All other” group includes those reporting the race categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1b) Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islanders, and (2) those reporting two or more races. 

1992-

2002 1982-92 1992-2002 1982 1992 2002-12

2002

2012