1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Impact of COVID-19 on the 

BLS Price Programs

Dave Mead, International Price Program

Steve Reed, Consumer Price Program

Scott Sager, Producer Price Program

Data Users’ Conference

April 28, 2021
2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Big picture questions

 How have key BLS price indexes moved during 

the COVID-19 pandemic?

 How has the pandemic affected procedures 

and response rates in BLS price indexes?

 What should we keep in mind when 

interpreting BLS price indexes from the 

pandemic period?
3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Impact of COVID-19 on Price 

Movements and Response Rates

Dave Mead

International Price Program
4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Prices during COVID-19

 Overall, the pattern of prices were 

characterized by the following:

Sharp drops from March to May 

Large upward price movements in the months that 

followed

Smaller advances throughout the rest of 2020

An upward trend in the pace of higher prices in early 2021 

as economies re-open

 Despite challenges, the pandemic did not 

impact the ability to produce price indexes
5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Imports broken out by fuel and nonfuel, January 2020 to March 

2021

All Imports Nonfuel Imports Fuel Imports
6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Oil prices

 Following the onset of the pandemic, import oil 

prices fell sharply, plunging 62.8 percent from 

January to April 

 Once OPEC+ agreed to initiate production cuts, 

import oil prices then surged 92.4 percent from April 

to July

 Prices then remained steady until they began to rise 

again near the end of the year, increasing 52.1 

percent from October to March
7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19: 

nonfuel import prices

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Major components of nonfuel import prices: January 2020 to 

March 2021 

Nonfuel Imports Foods, feeds, and beverages

Nonfuel industrial supplies Capital goods

Automotive vehicles Consumer Goods
8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19: 

import food prices

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Import food prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Foods, feeds, and beverages Meat Fruit Vegetables Fish
9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19: 

import industrial supplies

70.0

90.0

110.0

130.0

150.0

170.0

190.0

210.0

230.0

250.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Import industrial supplies prices, January 2020 to March 

2021

Nonfuel industrial supplies Chemicals Lumber Metals
10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19: 

import industrial supplies (cont.)

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

130.0

135.0

140.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Import industrial supplies prices, January 2020 to March 

2021

Nonfuel industrial supplies Chemicals Metals
11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Import prices during COVID-19

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

102.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Import finished goods prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Capital goods Automotive vehicles Consumer goods
12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Inbound prices during COVID-19

95.0

105.0

115.0

125.0

135.0

145.0

155.0

165.0

175.0

185.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Inbound air freight prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Inbound air freight Freight from Europe Freight from Asia
13 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Export prices during COVID-19

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Major components of export prices, 

January 2020 to March 2021

All Exports Foods, feeds, and beverages

Industrial supplies and materials Capital goods

Automotive vehicles Consumer Goods
14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Export prices during COVID-19: 

food prices

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Export food prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Foods, feeds, and beverages Fruit Dairy Nuts
15 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Export prices during COVID-19: 

export grain prices

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

150.0

160.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Export grain prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Foods, feeds, and beverages Soybeans Corn Wheat
16 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Export prices during COVID-19

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

140.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Export industrial supplies, January 2020 to March 2021

Industrial supplies Cotton Fuel Unferrous metals Chemicals
17 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Export prices during COVID-19: 

export finished goods

98.5

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Export finished goods prices, January 2020 to March 2021

Capital goods Automotive vehicles Consumer Goods
18 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Imports during COVID-19

99.0

99.5

100.0

100.5

101.0

101.5

102.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Import price by country, January 2020 to March 2021

China Japan
19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

U.S. terms of trade during COVID-19

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

120.0

125.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Terms of trade indexes by country, January 2020 to March 2021

China Japan EU Mexico Canada
20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

U.S. terms of trade during COVID-19: 

terms of trade by country

91.0

93.0

95.0

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

107.0

109.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Terms of trade indexes by country, January 2020 to March 

2021

China Japan EU Mexico
21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Data Collection for Imports and Exports

 Teleworking

Both the staff in Washington and the staff in the 

field that initiate new items have been in a fulltime telework environment

Despite challenges, this has not impacted the 

division’s ability to publish the import and export 

price indexes on schedule
22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Data Collection for Imports and Exports (cont.)

 Changes Needed Because of the Pandemic

Only minor changes to collection: everything now 

collected through a secure internet site

No changes were needed to the calculation 

methodology

A small number of published indexes had to be 

suppressed from publication (depending on the 

month, 6-10 out of over a 1000)
23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Data Collection for Imports and Exports: 

response rates

64.0

66.0

68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Response rates, February 2020 to March 2021

Imports Exports
24 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Impact of COVID-19 on Price 

Movements and Response Rates

Scott Sager

Producer Price Program
25 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI during COVID-19 pandemic

 First effect on domestic prices in March 2020

Energy prices lower

– Cost push due to lower input prices

Food prices mixed

– Demand shocks affected supply chain

• Final demand food volatile

• Unprocessed food prices initially lower, before moving higher

Core goods and services relatively prices steady 

before moving higher later in 2020 and into 2021
26 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI during COVID-19 Pandemic: 

final demand and components

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

110.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index for Final demand and components, 

seasonally adjusted, January 2020 – March 2021

Final demand Food Energy Core goods Services

January 2020 = 100
27 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI energy during COVID-19 

 Lower world-wide prices for Crude petroleum 

starting in Feb 2020 as COVID-19 shutdowns 

depressed demand for petroleum products in Asia 

and Europe

 Lower input prices pass through to domestic refined 

petroleum products

 Domestic COVID-19 shutdowns and travel 

restrictions in March 2020 depress demand sending 

prices ever lower 
28 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI energy during COVID-19 (cont.)

 Prices bottom out in April 2020 

OPEC agrees to production cuts, putting a floor 

under Crude petroleum prices.

 In May 2020, the U.S. starts to reopen, 

bolstering demand for refined petroleum 

products. 

The combination of lower inventories and 

increased demand allow prices to start moving 

higher.
29 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI energy during COVID-19: price trends

 Prices continued to trend higher through the 

remainder of the year.

Recovery of crude petroleum prices as production 

remained limited.

Domestic demand increased for refined products 

as the U.S. continued to reopen.
30 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI energy during COVID-19: 

selected energy products

25.0

50.0

75.0

100.0

125.0

150.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index for selected energy products, seasonally 

adjusted, January 2020 – March 2021

Crude petroleum (nsa) Gasoline Diesel fuel Jet fuel (nsa)

January 2020 = 100
31 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI food during COVID-19 (cont.)

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index Food aggregate indexes, seasonally 

adjusted, January 2020 – March 2021

Final demand foods Processed foods and feeds Unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs

January 2020 = 100
32 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI food during COVID-19

 Stay-at-home orders instituted on widespread basis in mid-March 2020

Restaurants reduced or eliminated in person 

dining

Supermarkets saw increased demand from 

consumers

Food suppliers shut down or severely curtailed 

production

– Illness among staff

– Facilities not equipped to handle new customers

Farmers have no market for their products
33 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI food during COVID-19: food items

 Disparity in movement between unprocessed 

and processed foods

Timing differed based on perishability of products

– Slaughter livestock vs. Meats

• Slaughter livestock prices lower though April due to lack of 

processor capacity

• Meat prices increase through May due to lower supplies and 

increased consumer demand

– Raw milk vs. Dairy products

• Raw milk fell consistently through June

• Dairy products started to recover in June as inventories 

became depleted
34 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI food during COVID-19: holiday demand

Eggs

– Higher prices through April due to increased demand 

from Easter and consumer-fueled panic buying

– In May, lower post-holiday demand coupled with a 

increased supplies, resulted in significantly lower prices 

through the Summer.
35 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19

90.0

100.0

110.0

120.0

130.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index Core goods indexes, seasonally adjusted, 

January 2020 – March 2021

Final demand core goods Processed core goods Unprocessed core goods

January 2020 = 100
36 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19 (cont.)

 Final demand core goods prices remained 

relatively constant

 Processed core goods prices fell though May 

as world-wide closures hampered demand for 

manufacturing materials.

 Unprocessed core goods prices fell through 

April before increasing rapidly later in the 

year, as reopenings spurred economic growth
37 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19: 

final demand core goods

 Little movement among Final demand core 

goods, as highly weighted components had 

prices that remained relatively stable

Motor vehicles

Pharmaceuticals

Tobacco products

Aircraft
38 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19: 

selected core goods

75.0

100.0

125.0

150.0

175.0

Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index for selected Core goods, seasonally 

adjusted, January 2020 – March 2021

Industrial chemicals Plastic resins Lumber Steel scrap (nsa) Corn
39 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19: 

processed core goods

 Moderate movement lower for processed core 

goods through May, then moving higher 

through the remainder of the year as the 

country reopened

Industrial chemicals

Plastic resins

Lumber
40 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI core goods during COVID-19: 

unprocessed core goods

 Unprocessed core goods fell moderately in 

April, but rebounded strongly throughout the 

remainder of the year

Iron and steel scrap

Corn (for ethanol)
41 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI services during COVID-19

 Little aggregate volatility because heavily 

weighted components were unaffected

Healthcare – about a quarter of Final demand 

services

– Reimbursement rates set by annual agreements

• Private insurance

• Medicaid

• Medicare
42 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI services during COVID-19 (cont.)

 Services areas with significant movement

Guestroom rental and Airline passenger services

– Significant price declines as stay-at-home orders 

resulted in no demand for travel 

Portfolio management

– Increases throughout the year as portfolio managers 

compensation is based on stock market returns
43 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI response rates during COVID-19

68

70

72

74

76

March

2019 -

February

2020

average

Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21

Producer Price Index initial response rate by reference month
44 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

PPI response rates during COVID-19 (cont.)

 Response rates improved during COVID-19

12-month average pre-COVID-19: 69%

Average since onset of COVID-19: 73%

 Anecdotal information

Respondents’ remote-work posture provided 

greater efficiencies for price submissions and 

better accessibility to PPI staff for follow-up
45 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Impact of COVID-19 on Price

Movements and Response Rates

Steve Reed

Consumer Price Program
46 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Consumer Price Index

 Movements in major CPI indexes

 Indexes with unusual movements during 

pandemic period

 Trends and issues in CPI rent and Owners’ 

Equivalent Rent (OER) indexes during 

pandemic
47 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Headline CPI during COVID-19

98.0

99.0

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

CPI All items and All items less food and energy, seasonally adjusted, 

January 2020-March 2021

All items All items less food and energy
48 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

CPI food indexes during COVID-19

100.0

101.0

102.0

103.0

104.0

105.0

106.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Consumer Price Index for major food categories, seasonally 

adjusted, January 2020-March 2021

Food Food at home Food away from home
49 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Food acceleration during COVID-19

CPI food categories, 12-month percent change

Category

March 2019-

March 2020

March 2020-

March 2021

Food at home 1.1 3.3

 Cereals and bakery products 0.1 2.6

 Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs 2.3 5.4

 Beef and Veal 3.8 7.1

 Dairy and related products 3.7 1.6

 Fruits and vegetables -1.9 3.8

 Nonalcholic beverages 1.4 3.2

 Other food at home 1.4 2.2

Food away from home 3.0 3.7

 Full service meals 3.2 3.2

 Limited service meals 2.8 6.5
50 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

CPI gasoline prices during COVID-19

$1.800

$2.000

$2.200

$2.400

$2.600

$2.800

$3.000

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

CPI Gasoline all types U.S. city average, January 2020-March 

2021
51 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

CPI categories with supply disruptions

95.0

97.0

99.0

101.0

103.0

105.0

107.0

109.0

111.0

113.0

115.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Consumer Price Index, selected categories, seasonally adjusted, 

January 2020-March 2021

Used cars and trucks Appliances
52 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

CPI categories with demand disruptions

70.0

75.0

80.0

85.0

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

Jan

2020

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

Consumer Price Index, selected categories, seasonally adjusted, 

January 2020-March 2021

Lodging away from home Airline fares
53 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Impact of data collection changes 

 In-person data collection stopped March 16, 

2020

 Data collectors attempt to collect data 

through other means (mostly online)

 Lower response rates, more imputation, 

though most prices still collected
54 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Impact of data collection changes and 

altered economic conditions

 Some outlets in the sample have no online 

presence

 CPI avoided contact when it would cause 

respondents undue burden

 Some outlets closed, or specific sampled items 

unavailable for pricing
55 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Impact of data collection changes and 

altered economic conditions (cont.)

 Lower response rate in most indexes

Modest decline across the board

Larger declines in certain indexes

 Minor increase in indexes failing data quality 

standards and being unpublished

No major indexes at the U.S. city average level 

failed publication standards
56 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

CPI response rates

Response rates for the commodities and services price survey, percent

Collected 

prices

Uncollected 

prices

Collected 

prices

Uncollected 

prices

Collected 

prices

Uncollected 

prices

January 85 15 86 14 77 23

February 85 15 87 13 79 21

March 87 13 76 25 78 22

April 86 14 65 35

May 87 13 68 32

June 86 14 70 30

July 86 14 70 30

August 86 14 72 28

September 86 14 73 27

October 86 14 74 26

November 87 13 75 25

December 86 14 77 23

2019 2020 2021

Month
57 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Rent and Owners’ Equivalent Rent 

 Reduced response rate in rent sample 

 Concerns about handling of rent forgiveness, 

non-payment

 Some deceleration in rent and Owners’ 

Equivalent Rent (OER) increases
58 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Rent and OER: response rates

 Response rates for the housing survey, percent

Collected 

rents

Vacant units Uncollected 

rents

Collected 

rents

Vacant units Uncollected 

rents

Collected 

rents

Vacant units Uncollected 

rents

January 68 6 26 70 5 25 58 4 38

February 67 5 28 69 6 25 61 4 35

March 67 6 27 63 5 32 62 4 34

April 68 6 26 61 4 35

May 69 6 25 61 4 35

June 68 6 26 62 4 34

July 69 6 25 60 4 36

August 67 6 27 62 4 34

September 65 6 29 60 4 36

October 69 5 26 59 4 37

November 69 6 25 60 4 36

December 67 6 27 62 4 34

2019 2020 2021

Month
59 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Rent and OER: 1-month change

0.00

0.05

0.10

0.15

0.20

0.25

0.30

0.35

Feb

2020

Mar

2020

Apr

2020

May

2020

Jun

2020

Jul

2020

Aug

2020

Sep

2020

Oct

2020

Nov

2020

Dec

2020

Jan

2021

Feb

2021

Mar

2021

CPI Rent and OER, seasonally adjusted 1-month change, 

February 2020-March 2021

Rent of primary residence Owners' equivalent rent
60 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Interpreting the CPI during COVID-19

 Reduced response rates mean more 

imputation, additional noise in short term 

index movements

 Some indexes have substantially reduced data 

quality
61 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Interpreting the CPI during COVID-19: 

seasonal adjustment

 Seasonal adjustment

Disruption of normal seasonal patterns mean 

seasonally adjusted movements should be 

interpreted cautiously

– During pandemic

– Going forward
62 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Interpreting the CPI during COVID-19: 

weights

 Weights

CPI-U and CPI-W weights do not adjust in real 

time

– Airline fares

– Food away from home

– Lodging away from home
63 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Indexes with interpretation issues

 Food at home

 Food away from home

 Airline fares

 Lodging away from home

 Motor vehicle insurance

 Admissions
64 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Consumer Price Program

cpi_info@bls.gov | 202.691.7000

International Price Program

mxp@bls.gov | 202.691.7101

Producer Price Program

ppi-info@bls.gov | 202.691.7705

Contact information