An Evaluation of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment

For the Major Labor Force Series

by

George R. Methee and Robert J. McIntire

Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics

Bureau of Labor Statistics

u.S. Department of Labor

August 1987

PRELIMINARY

This paper was prepared for presentation at the American

Statistical Association Joint Meetings, August 17-20, 1987,

San Francisco, California.

This paper does not necessarily represent the official views

or policy of the Bureau of Labor Statistics or the

Department of Labor. The authors are solely responsible for

its contents. .
An Evaluation of Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment

For the Major Labor Force Series

by George R. Methee and Robert J. McIntire

I. Introduction

Seasonal adjustment plays an important role in the

procedures used by national statistical agencies to produce

estimates of monthly levels and changes for the economic

time series which are used in the interpretation and

analysis of the performance of our economy and labor

markets. Among the most critical and sensitive of these

economic time series are the national unemployment rate and

the associated major labor force series which are based on

the Current Population Survey (CPS) and issued by the Bureau

of Labor Statistics (BLS). The purpose of seasonal

adjustment is to eliminate from such time series the effects

of seasonal events such as weather, holidays, opening and

closing of schools, etc., to make it easier to observe and

analyze the underlying trend and cyclical movements.

Seasonal variation often dominates other sources of change

over short-term periods for many of these series and can

make interpretation of short-term movements difficult for

the average user unless seasonally adjusted versions are

available.

The seasonally adjusted estimates which receive the most

attention are those associated with the first, most current

issuance of data for a particular month. Due, however, to
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the inherent nature of moving averages, which are

fundamental to the procedures used for most official

seasonal adjustment by national statistical agencies, the

estimates of seasonality used at first issuance cannot be

based on the symmetric moving averages on which those

procedures are primarily based. The symmetric moving

averages require a substantial number of observations both

before and after the observation of interest. The estimates

of seasonality in current observations at first issuance

must instead be based on asymmetric moving averages applied

to the available historical data, with most weight usually

given to recent years.

In a concurrent adjustment environment, all available

current observations are used in the estimation of current

seasonality and the estimation process must, therefore, be

run every month. The much more common practice for current

observations, however, has been, and, to a great extent,

still is, that of projected-factor seasonal adjustment,

where the estimation process is run much less frequently,

usually annually or semiannually, to produce projected

estimates of seasonality (seasonal factors) for the

subsequent year or half-year. In projected-factor

adjustment, the current observations cannot participate in

the estimation of the seasonal factors used at first

issuance because those observations aren't yet available

when the factors are calculated; the factors that will be

used can, however, be published ahead of time. In either
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case (concurrent or projected-factor adjustment), the

initial seasonally adjusted estimates are subject to a

number of revisions, usually annually (although alternative

frequencies of revision may merit serious consideration in

concurrent adjustment environments), until enough

additional observations have accumulated to allow the use of

the symmetric moving averages to produce final estimates for

a given time point.

Those final estimates are regarded as the best estimates

available from these moving-average procedures (which, in

turn, have generally been regarded as the best methods

available for large-scale seasonal adjustment by national

statistical agencies 1). Since policy decisions must

usually be based on current data and can't wait several

years for the best and final estimates, it is important that

the initial, current estimates be reasonably close to and

consistent with the best and final estimates. In other

words, the revisions should not be too large. Another

implication is that the size of revisions is one way to

evaluate alternative procedures for current seasonal

adjustment, at least in cases where the final estimates from

each of the alternatives will be the same, as with

1 See Dagum (1979). Bell and Hillmer (1984) provide a

different perspective and indicate a preference for

alternative methods which may become more common at some

point in the future. For now, however, the ratio-to- or

difference-from-moving-average procedures such as X-ll are

still dominant.
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concurrent versus projected-factor adjustment using the same

estimation procedure.

Several studies in recent years, both theoretical and

empirical (see, for example, Bayer and Wilcox 1981, Dagum

1982, Kenny and Durbin 1982, Wallis 1982, McKenzie 1984,

Shimberg 1984, Dagum and Morry 1985, Pierce and McKenzie

1985, Buszuwski 1986), have shown that revisions of

seasonally adjusted estimates can generally be reduced,

often substantially so, by doing concurrent rather than

projected-factor adjustment. Of course, the predominance

of projected-factor adjustment has been due to other

considerations, primarily operational difficulties in

processing the data and, perhaps more importantly in recent

years, a perception that the prior publication of seasonal

factors was an important way of maintaining the "openness"

of the seasonal adjustment process and thus sustaining

public confidence and understanding. 2

Initially, the advantages of concurrent adjustment were not

judged sufficient to replace the projected-factor adjustment

as the standard approach, especially for very sensitive

series such as the national unemployment rate. Now that

the weight of the evidence in favor of concurrent adjustment

has grown substantially, reevaluation is called for,

including a thorough evaluation of the empirical impact of

concurrent adjustment on the major labor force series. This

2 For example, see Shiskin and Plewes (1979).
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paper reports on the results of such an evaluation.

The second section of the paper will provide a brief history

of concurrent adjustment, including its application at BLS

to compute an alternative unemployment rate, and review some

of the relevant literature. The third section will describe

the labor force data and provide some back round on the

procedure that BLS currently uses to seasonally adjust those

data. Subsequent sections will identify the design of the

evaluation study, present and discuss the results, and

present conclusions and recommendations.

II. Brief History of Concurrent Adjustment

Concurrent seasonal adjustment was not regarded as a

feasible alternative back in the mid-1960's when the

refinement and automation of the moving-average techniques

resulted in computer programs, such as the X-ll developed at

the U.S. Bureau of the Census, that enabled statistical

agencies to seasonally adjust large numbers of time series.

The idea of running these programs every month would have

involved significant time and expense on the computers

available at that time, and was out of the question for the

high-volume seasonal adjustment being done in statistical

agencies, especially in an atmosphere where prior

publication of seasonal factors was deemed essential.

Although the use of projected factors was probably dictated

by the operational limitations, the ability to publish these
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factors ahead of time was also perceived as an important way

of maintaining public confidence in the seasonal adjustment

process because it precluded any release-time manipulation

of this process which was less generally accepted and

understood than it has since become. This perception of the

importance of prior publication of factors has remained a

dominant factor in the management of seasonal adjustment of

official estimates by u.s. national statistical agencies

(Kallek 1978, Shiskin and Plewes 1979, McIntire 1985) and a

major deterrent to concurrent adjustment for official

estimates, even as the operational environment evolved and

made its use more feasible through faster computers and

progressively less expensive computer time.

Nevertheless, by the mid- to late 1970's, concurrent

adjustment had been adopted for official use with labor

force series at Statistics Canada and was being used for the

calculation and issuance of an alternative, unofficial

unemployment rate by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the

first such use of concurrent adjustment by a U. S.

statistical agency. Indeed, the report of the National

Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics (1979)

recommended that important current u.s. labor statistics

such as the national unemployment rate be adjusted on a

concurrent basis. The Department of Labor response (1981),

cited the desirability of prior publication of factors as

the reason for not accepting the recommendation at that
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time, reflecting a continuing concern for not jeopardizing

public confidence in the seasonal adjustment of the very

sensitive national unemployment rate.

In spite of, or perhaps partially because of, the concerns

about concurrent adjustment in the national statistical

agencies, it began to be the subject of a growing body of

theoretical and empirical research, almost all of which was

favorable. McKenzie (1984) reviewed the history and

research of concurrent adjustment prior to 1984 and

contributed to the empirical research on the topic. Since

then, papers by Shimberg (1984), Dagum and Morry (1985), and

Buszuwski (1986) have added further empirical evidence

favorable to concurrent adjustment, and the Federal Reserve

Board has begun to publish a supplemental, experimental

estimate of seasonally adjusted money supply based on

concurrent adjustment. In addition, the U.S. Bureau of the

Census adopted concurrent adjustment for some of their

official construction series in 1985 and have since extended

it to almost all of their official seasonal adjustment.

Census Bureau officials report that no discernible negative

impact on public confidence or understanding has been

observed as a result of adopting concurrent adjustment.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics has continued to calculate

the concurrently adjusted alternate unemployment rate each

month and to release it as part of a table that accompanies
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the text of the Commissioner's monthly statement on the

employment situation to the Joint Economic Committee. The

performance of this concurrent rate has been evaluated in

some unpublished in-house research and in some of the annual

published articles on revisions to the seasonally adjusted

labor force series (for example, McIntire 1985).

Essentially all of that previous evaluation has been focused

on the unemployment rate itself and on the effect on firstyear revisions rather than the final revisions calculated

with the symmetric moving averages after four more years of

data have accumulated following the year of interest. This

paper evaluates the performance of concurrent adjustment on

the labor force series by considering the major components

underlying the overall rate in addition to the rate itself

and by evaluating performance relative to the final

revisions.

III. The Seasonal Adjustment Procedure at BLS.

The official seasonal adjustment procedure for the labor

force series at BLS is the Xll/ARIMA program developed by

Statistics Canada under the direction of Estella B. Dagum.

BLS adopted this method in 1980 after tests indicated that

yearly revisions were smaller than those obtained by using

the Xll program alone. It is the procedure used for all

seasonal estimates, both for the current official projected

factors and for the concurrent factors used in computing the
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alternate unemployment rate mentioned above.

Xll/ARIMA is also used for the seasonal adjustment of the

payroll employment series, which are based on an

establishment survey and are released simultaneously with

the labor force series.

The Xll/ARIMA procedure is an extension of the widely used

Census X-ll program (Shiskin, Young, and Musgrave, 1967).

It improves current estimates of most labor force series by

allowing recent observations to weigh more heavily in the

estimates of current seasonal adjustment factors. This is

accomplished by applying Box-Jenkins extrapolation

algorithms (ARIMA models) to the original series thereby

lengthening the series by 12 observations and thus allowing

the generation of seasonal forecasts in the X-ll part of the

procedure using filters which are closer to the filters

(moving averages) used for the central observations (Dagum,

1978 and Kuiper, 1978). The criteria required for suitable

ARIMA models are: 1) a good fit, 2) low forecast errors for

the last three years, and 3) residuals which have a random

pattern.

The actual process of seasonally adjusting labor force data

at BLS is known as a six-month ahead procedure and normally

uses ten years of data. The initial run provides projected

factors for the months of January through June of the

upcoming year. When data through June of the current year
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become available, a subsequent run of ten and one half

years provides seasonal factors for the months of July

through December. As this process continues through time,

the data undergo further revisions. However, after the

fifth year, no further revisions take place. At this point,

the seasonal adjustment of a given series is considered

final.

BLS has successfully used this procedure since 1980.

ARIMA models have been identified and are currently used for

174 of the 209 independently adjusted labor force series.

The remainding 35 series, for which no suitable ARIMA model

have been found, are adjusted with the X-II portion of the

program.

IV. Description of the Data.

The data used for this study are the 12 series which form

the basis for the computation of the national unemployment

rate. This choice is somewhat obvious given the importance

and sensitivity of this key economic indicator, as mentioned

above. Any possible change in seasonal adjustment

methodology must be evaluated in terms of its impact on the

reliability of this indicator.

The basic series show a considerable amount of seasonality.

Previous adjustments indicate that these groups have strong
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F-test values for this particular phenomenon and have

seasonality that is high relative to the irregular

component. Both of these traits are desirable in evaluating

alternative modes of adjustments.

Also included in this study are aggregate series directly

derived from the original 12 basic series. Such major

groups as adult and teenage labor force, employment and

unemployment levels are examined as well as agricultural

and nonagricultural employment sub-groups. Of course, the

unemployment rate is a major focus of our inquiry, but

the rates for both adult and teenage workers are examined

as well. The rates which we examined were treated in two

ways. First, the rates were computed internally within the

program by dividing the appropriate unemployment level by

the corresponding civilian labor force, for a given group.

The resulting computation was carried out several decimal

places. Secondly, these same rates were rounded to one

decimal place to determine whether any differences would

occur due to rounding since unemployment rates are

traditionally published to one decimal place only. The

rounding to one decimal place sometimes masks the size of

the underlying revisions, but it is important to include an

evaluation on the unemployment rate as it is published.

The treatment of unemployed men 20 years of age and over is

somewhat different from that of the 11 other series. Because
- 12 -

of the dramatic upward shift that occurred in this series

after October, 1974, BLS introduced a prior adjustment of

the original data by shifting all the observations up

through this time point to a level more in line with

subsequent trends. After seasonal adjustment, the adjusted

estimates were deflated by the same factor applied before

adjustment. This process was continued until 1982 after

which time the effect of the shift was no longer a

significant factor. This prior adjustment was incorporated

in the calculations of this study to provide as much

consistency as possible with what was done officially during

those years.

The series that we examined are as follows:

Directly adjusted basic series:

Unemployment, men 16 to 19

Unemployment, women 16 to 19

Unemployment, men 20 and over

Unemployment, women 20 and over

Agricultural employment, men 16 to 19

Agricultural employment, women 16 to 19

Agricultural employment, men 20 and over

Agricultural employment, women 20 and over

Nonagricultural employment, men 16 to 19

Nonagricultural employment, women 16 to 19

Nonagricultural employment, men 20 and over

Nonagricultural employment, women 20 and over
- 13 -

Aggregated series and rates:

Unemployment, both sexes 16 to 19

Unemployment, both sexes 20 and over

Agricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19

Agricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over

Nonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19

Nonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over

Civilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19

Civilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over

Unemployment, total

Agricultural employment, total civilian

Nonagricultural employment, total civilian

Employment, total civilian

Civilian labor force, total

Unemployment rate, total civilian

Unemployment rate, both sexes 16 to 19

Unemployment rate, men 20 years and over

Unemployment rate, women 20 years and over

v. Design of the Study.

The test period for this study is the SlX year span 1977-82.

There were discontinuities in the labor force series between

1966 and 1967, and so 1977 is the first year for which

projected factors can be calculated from a continuous 10-

year historical time span. 1982 is the last year for which

the fifth-year revisions could be calculated at the time of

this study. The test period can be broken down as follows:

Period used

for Jan-June

projected

factors

Projected (current) Final revision

1967-1976

1968-1977

1970-1979

1971-1980

1972-1981

1977

1978

1980

1981

1982

1981

1983

1984

1985

1986

As an example, using data for the period 1967 to 1976, the
- 14 -

projected seasonal factors were obtained for the months of

January through June 1977. Since BLS uses a six month ahead

procedure, a subsequent run through the month of June of

1977 provided factors for the latter half of the year for

the months of July to December. These factors were then

applied to the original 1977 data thus producing seasonal

estimates of the labor force comparable to those that were

first published. Similarly, the same period was adjusted

concurrently by adding one observation after each run for a

total of 12 adjustments. This entire procedure was repeated

for all the periods through 1982. Comparisons were then made

with a final revision which we will explain in more detail

in the following section.

The ARlMA models used in this study for the 12 basic series

were the ones in official use during 1987 and were kept

the same for all runs. The forecast errors and

Chi-square values were judged to be adequate though it

should be noted that these models were not necessarily the

ones used originally. The ARlMA models, transformations and

types of adjustments (additive or multiplicative) are:
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Series Title ARIMA

Model

Unemployment:

Men 16-19

Women 16-19

Men 20+

Women 20+

(0,1,1)(0,1,1)

(0,1,2)(0,1,1)

(2,1,2)(0,1,1)

(O,l,l)(O,l,l)log

Agricultural Employment:

Men 16-19

Women 16-19

Men 20+

Women 20+

(0,1,2)(0,1,1)

(2,1,2)(0,1,1)

(l,O,O)(O,l,l)log

(0,1,2)(0,1,1)10g

Nonagricultural Employment:

Men 16-19

Women 16-19

Men 20+

Women 20+

(2,1,0)(0,1,1)

(0,1,1)(0,1,1)

(O,l,l)(O,l,l)log

(O,l,l)(O,l,l)log

VI. Statistics for Evaluating the Different Methods.

Type of

Adjustment

A

A

M

M

M

M

M

M

A

A

M

M

The evaluation of any seasonal adjustment procedure depends

upon its performance in regards to some "final" adjusted

version. This is usually a period when a sufficient amount

of time has elapsed to allow the full benefit of the

seasonal moving average filters to take effect. As

suggested above in the introduction and by Kenny and Durbin

(1982) and again by McKenzie (1984), it is the point when

there is sufficient data for the adjustment of the central

term. Since 3 x 5 seasonal moving average filters are

used for all adjustment of the labor force series, a five

year revision period is appropriate and, as a matter of

policy, is used by BLS for final revision of its seasonally

adjusted labor force data. Only the most recent five year
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period is subject to change when seasonal adjustment

revisions take place at the end of each calendar year. Any

data prior to that time are "frozen" and not subject to any

further revision. For example, seasonal factors for 1977

become "finalized" at the end of 1981.

The statistics chosen to evaluate the effectiveness of

either the projected estimates or the concurrent

estimates can be described as follows: letting T denote:the

length of the period, X' (t) the original estimate (either

the projected estimate or the concurrent estimate), and

finally X(t) the revised value. The 6 statistics include:

1. Average (absolute) revision of levels (ARL)

T

ARL =(l/T) I IX(t)-X'(t)1

t=l

2. Average (absolute) revision of changes (ARC)

T-l

ARC =(l/(T-l» I I [X(t+l)-X(t) ]-[X' (t+l)-X' (t) J I

t=l

3. Root mean square revision of levels (RMSL)

T

RMSL =[(l/T) I

t=l

4. Root mean square revision of changes (RMSEC)

T-l

RMS EC= [(1/(T-l » I ([X (t+1)-X (t) ]- [X '(t +1),-X (t )])2 ]1/2

t=l
- 17 -

5. Root mean square proportional revision of levels(RMSPRL)

T

RMSPRL =I (l/T) I ([X(t)-X' (t) ]/X(t) )2Jl/2

t=l

6. Root mean square proportional revision of relative

changes (RMSPRRC)

T-l

RMSPPRC=[ (l/(T-l» I ([X(t+l)/X(t) ]-[X' (t+l)/X' (t)] )2Jl/2

t=l

For the statistics that relate to month-to-month changes

(ARC, RMSEC, and RMSPRRC), it should be noted that the

concurrent month-ago values used in the calculations for

this study were as first computed and not revised as they

could be based on data through the following month. This

approach is consistent with the current BLS policy of

revising seasonally adjusted labor force data only at the

end of each year.

VII. Results.

The six statistics were computed for all the 12 basic series

and their aggregates for both the projected and the

concurrent methods for each individual year. As a means of

comparing these measures, ratios were calculated by dividing

the concurrent value of the statistic by the corresponding

projected value. Thus a ratio of less than 1 will indicate

that the concurrent method is to be preferred while a ratio

of 1 or greater will indicate that the presently official
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projected method performs as well as or better than

concurrent.

The average absolute revision of monthly levels, (ARL) and

the average revision of month-to-month changes, (ARC) are

shown in table 1 for the individual years of 1977 to 1982.

For the 12 basic series, the ARL ratios indicate that the

concurrent method provides better estimates in 9 out of 12

series for 1978 to 1982 and for 8 out of 12 series for 1977.

The results for the aggregate series tended to be similar

although the year to year variation was greater with 19 out

21 series favoring concurrent adjustment in 1979 to only 12

out of 21 series for 1978.

The ARC ratios for the same period are somewhat more

significant. Of the 12 basic series, 10 had ratios of less

than 1 in all the years except for 1980 where 11 of the

series indicated that concurrent estimates were better.

The results for the aggregate series for the ARC were even

more impressive. Almost all the years had 19 or more of the

ratios with values less than 1 except for 1978 where there

were only 12 such series.

These are particularly important results for the ARC since

our month-to-month calculations include the

December-to-January changes. In the past, these changes
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have been very troublesome because of the end of year

revisions. Abrupt changes in many of these series have

occurred when January statistics were first published.

These results are encouraging because concurrent adjustment

might well alleviate this problem.

The ARL and ARC statistics were also computed for the

average of the six year period for each of the series with

some reductions as high as 23 percent. All but two of the

aggregate series for the ARL show reductions for both

measures. This indicates that in the long run, concurrent

adjustment would provide current estimates closer to the

final revisions than does our present projected factor

method.

The RMSL, the root mean square revision of levels, and the

RMSEC, the root mean square revision of month-to-month

changes shown in table 2, indicate once more a definite

preference for concurrent adjustment. The RMSL ratios for

the basic series show a similar pattern to that of the ARL

statistics. An average of nine of these series for all

years have ratios that indicate reductions for this measure.

For the aggregate series, about 15 of 21 show values of less

than 1.

The root mean square revision of levels and the root mean

square revision of month-to-month changes are shown in table
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2. Most of the basic series show a pattern quite similar to

the previous statistics. For the RMSL ratios, 8 out of

12 had ratios of less than 1. For the aggregate series, 15

of 21 had RMSL ratios of less than 1.

For the RMSEC, the results are again more impressive with

most of the basic series favoring concurrent adjustment.

Only 1977 and 1978 have relatively fewer ratios of less than

1. All other years had 19 or more ratios showing a

preference for the concurrent method.

The six-year-average statistics for RMSL and RMSEC all show

positive results with the exception of 3 of the aggregate

series, with some reductions close to 30 percent. As with

the ARL and ARC measures, the agricultural and

nonagricultural employment totals had ratios greater than 1.

In addition, one other series, total employment showed a

preference for the present method. Otherwise, we have

further evidence that the official seasonal adjustment could

be improved with the use of concurrent adjustment.

One more important group of statistics is shown on table 4.

These are the major aggregate series. First, there is the

unemployment rate. Because our computer program calculated

this and other rates from the original levels, the number of

decimals carried almost always exceeded 1. This might have

some effect on the computation of the measures and
- 21 -

the resulting ratios. Consequently, as mentioned earlier,

these rates were rounded to one decimal place (their

published form) as well. As we can observe, the unrounded

rates show somewhat more improvement using the concurrent

method than do the rounded rates, suggesting that the

rounded rates tend to mask some of the improvement in the

underlying components. This can be shown from the six-year

averages as well as the individual years. Nevertheless, the

evidence does point to concurrent adjustment in most cases.

The exceptions seem to occur most frequently in 1977 and

1978. But the month-to-month changes, as previously noted

in earlier results, tend to be more favorable relative to

revision of level statistics.

The other major groups also show substantial reductions in

all the measures. Ratios for the civilian labor force and

unemployment levels for the six-year average are below one.

The only individual year which did not show any reduction is

1978. Total civilian employment and nonagricultural

employment did not show much reduction in the measures for

the levels (for 1978, 1980, and 1981) but did so for the

month-to-month changes - hovering around 20 percent for the

six-year averages.

The measures of month-to-month changes by individual month

for the period 1977 to 1982 for the major series, labor

force, employment and unemployment levels, also favor the
- 22 -

concurrent method (Table 4). At least nine of the twelve

months have ratios less than one. Only the civilian

unemployment rate (to one decimal place) has ratios equally

divided between the projected factor method and the

concurrent method. This result is not surprising given the

previously noted impact of rounding, and it is consistent

with BLS' experience in computing the unofficial concurrent

monthly unemployment rate, which has not shown many

significant differences from the official rate.

Table 4 thus shows that the comparison of concurrent versus

projected-factor adjustment can vary rather substantially

across years and particularly across months, but it also

reinforces the overall advantage of concurrent, especially

for month-to-month change and for the major labor force

components underlying the unemployment rate as published.

VIII. Conclusions and Recommendations.

The findings of this study have shown that concurrent

seasonal adjustment of the labor force series offers

improvements over the present BLS six month projected factor

method. The six measures used to evaluate the results

indicate significant reductions in revisions for almost all

of the basic series and a majority of the aggregated series

for the individual years. Results for the six-year averages

are even more favorable, showing improvements that are
- 23 -

comparable to those found by McKenzie (1984). By adjusting

McKenzie's ratios to conform to our comparisons of a sixmonth ahead procedure to a concurrent adjustment, her

findings indicated an average improvement from concurrent

adjustment of a number of Census Bureau time series of 13

percent for revisions of levels and 20 percent for revisions

of month-to-month percentage change. The results of this

study indicate average improvements to revisions of level

and month-to-month change of: 6 and 27 percent,

respectively, for the civilian labor force; 20 and 23

percent, respectively, for unemployment levels; 5 and 23

percent, respectively, for total civilian employment; 17 and

22 percent, respectively, for the unrounded unemployment

rate; and 12 and 13 percent, respectively, for the rounded

unemployment rate (to one decimal place, as published).

These results are very encouraging, and we hope that they

will cause BLS to reopen the decision process on concurrent

adjustment for the labor force data. We believe that

seasonal adjustment has evolved to the point where prior

publication of factors is no longer essential for

maintenance of public confidence. It is certainly essential,

and a major responsibility of statistical agencies such as

BLS, that public confidence in economic time series be

maintained, especially for one as sensitive and critical as

the national unemployment rate. We believe that this can now

be accomplished for the seasonal adjustment of the labor
- 24 -

force series by documenting procedures in advance and by

making all computer programs and data (after release)

available to anyone who wishes to replicate the official

results. We therefore further hope that our results will

motivate BLS to pursue further research on the possible use

of concurrent adjustment for the official seasonal

adjustment of the labor force series. At least two other

key issues need to be addressed before a final decision

could be made. The first such issue relates to the question

of the proper revision policy for the labor force series

under a concurrent adjustment environment--would the

traditional policy of annual revision be sound and

appropriate, or should more frequent revision be considered?

The second issue involves the relationship of the labor

force series with other BLS time series, especially with the

establishment-based estimates of payroll employment that are

released simultaneously with the labor force series--would

it be appropriate to consider a change to concurrent

adjustment for the labor force series even if such a change

were not yet possible or could not yet be justified for the

payroll employment series?

The authors recommend that resolution of remaining important

issues such as those mentioned in the preceding paragraph be

pursued as soon as possible. In the meantime, of course,

the BLS will continue to make the concurrently adjusted

alternate unemployment rate available. Our results suggest
- 25 -

that the benefits of concurrent adjustment are generally

more significant for many of the underlying components, and

for month-to-month change, than for the monthly level of the

unemployment rate as published. This finding has already led

to a decision by BLS to provide, for information, more of

the concurrently adjusted series (especially the levels of

total civilian labor force, employment, and unemployment) on

an alternate basis while the research on concurrent

adjustment for BLS series continues.
- 26 -

References

BAYER, A. and WILCOX, D. (1981) "An Evaluation of Concurrent

Seasonal Adjustment," Technical Report, Washington,

D.C., Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve

System, Special Studies Section.

BELL, W.R., and HILLMER, S.C., (1984), "Issues Involved with

the Seasonal Adjustment of Economic Time Series,"

Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 2, 291-

320 •

.BUSZUWSKI, J.A. (1986), "Alternative Seasonal Adjustment

Forecast Horizons and Methods for the Producer Price

Indexes," Proceedings of Business and Economic

Section, American Statistical Association

(forthcoming).

;:.DAGUM, E.B. (1978) "A Comparison and Assessment of Seas.onal

Adjustment Methods for Employment and Unemployment

Statistics," Background Paper No.5, National

Commission on Employment and Unemployment Statistics,

U.S.Government Printing Office.

DAGUM, E.B. (1982.a), "The Effects of Asymmetric Filters on

Seasonal Factor Revisions," Journal of the American

Statistical Association, 77, 732-738.

DAGUM, E.B. (1982.b), "Revisions of Seasonally Adjusted Data

Due to Filter Changes," Proceedings of the Business

and Economic Section, American Statistical Association,

39-45.

DAGUM, E.B. (1983), The Xll ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment

Method, Ottawa: Statistics Canada Catalog No. l2-564-E.

Statistics Canada Catalog No. l2-564E.

DAGUM, E.B. and MORRY, M. (1985), "Seasonal Adjustment of

Labor Force Series During Recession and Non-Recession

Periods," Surevy Methodology, 11, 133-144.

KENNY, P.B. and DURBIN, J. (1982), "Local Trend Estimation

and Seasonal Adjustment of Economic and Social Time

Series," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society,

Series A, 145, 1-41.

KUIPER, J. (1978), "A Survey and Comparative Analysis of

Various Methods of Seasonal Adjustment": in Seasonal

Analysis of Economic Time Series (Arnold Zellner,

Editor), Washington, D.C.: U.S.Government Printing

Office, 59-76.
- 27 -

MCINTIRE, R.J. (1985), "Revision of Seasonally Adjusted

Labor Force Series," Employment and Earnings, 32 No.1,

9-12.

MCKENZIE, S.K. (1984), "Concurrent Seasonal Adjustment with

Census X-ll," Journal of Business and Economic

Statistics, 2, 235-249.

National Commission on Employment and Unemployment

Statistics (1979), Counting the Labor Force,

Washington, D.C.: U.S.Government Printing Office.

PIERCE, D. and MCKENZIE, S.K. (1985), liOnConcurrent

Seasonal Adjustment," Technical Report No. 164,

Washington, D.C., Board ofGovernors of the Federal

Reserve System, Special Studies Section.

SHIMBERG, M.Z. (1984), "Analysis of Current Seasonal

Adjustment for Retail and Wholesale Series,"

Proceedings of the Business and Economic Section,

American Statistical Association, 161-165.

SHISKIN, J. and PLEWES, T.J. (1979), "Seasonal Adjustment of

the U.S. Unemployment Rate," The Statistician, 27, 181-

202.

SHISKIN, J., YOUNG, A., and MUSGRAVE, J. (1967), liTheX-11

Variant of the Census Method II Seasonal Adjustment

Program," Technical Paper 15, Washington, D.C.: U.S.

Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.

U.S. Department of Labor (1981), Final Report of the

Secretary of Labor on the Recommendations of the

National Commission on Employment and Unemployment

Statistics.

WALLIS, K.F. (1982), "Seasonal Adjustment and Revision of

Current Data: Linear Filters for the X-11 Method,"

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A, 74-

85.
- 28 -

rable 1.

~omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major laboJ~ force series,

1977-1982

1977

1 1

1 Average absolute reV1Slon of 1 Average absolute reV1Slon of

1 monthly levels 1 month-to-month changes

1---------r--------.---------1---------r--------.-------

1 1 1

1 1 1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series 1

1

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 1

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over 1

Igricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 1

Igricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over 1

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 1

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over 1

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 1

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

.f v iLien labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian ...........•..........

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

!nemployment, men 20 and over .

'nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

16.41667

34.08333

7.25000

19.33333

30.00000

57.83333

21.50000

36.41667

48.83333

20.41667

72.66667

83.25000

45.41667

.05036

.19006

.06969

.10067

.03333

.19167

.07500

.09167

13.33333

9.58333

32.91667

32.83333

7.25000

2.00000

15.66667

12.50000

15.16667

17.83333

45.66667

25.83333

14.50000

35.06868

9.63745

24.26862

32.75000

65.55208

27.14193

55.41667

39.79655

31.14732

78.94792

90.84375

78.13021

.04174

.19004

.07241

.10183

.03333

.19166

.08333

.10000

12.00000

9.50000

34.83708

33.26385

6.77612

4.28569

20.23010

10.36936

17 .00000

22.58333

65.87793

26.45410

1

1

1 .13218 1

.97190 1

.75227 1

.79664 1

.9160,) 1

.88225 1

.79213 1

.65714 1

1.22707 1

.65542_1

.92044 1

.91641 1

.58129 1

1.20660 1

1 • QJLUfi.9-----l

:96249 1

. 98&.4L

1 .00000

1 .00001

.90000

.91667

1.11111

1 .00877

.94487

.98706

1 .06993

.46667

.77442

1 .20547

.89216

.78967

.69320

.97653

19.75000

46.08333

11.16667

29.50000

27.91667

40.08333

21.33333

41 .00000

59.00000

31.33333

61.16667

75.16667

49.83333

.05886

.21830

.06312

.11797

.06667

.20000

.06667

.11667

14.00000

11.08333

30.08333

37.66667

10.00000

2.00000

15.83333

17.66667

15.08333

22.00000

38.25000

26.50000

19.16667

51.09570

14.56295

30.63949

42.33333

72.32813

38.14909

75.51042

60.92904

32.65662

84.75521

106.36979

89.00000

.06340

.24565

.07874

.09993

.05833

.24166

.08333

.12500

15.75000

14.08333

38.35767

30.78105

11.33816

5.22713

20.32570

16.62636

19.33333

31 .50000

58.90723

45.57422

1 .03043

.90190

.76679

.96281

.65945

.55419

.55921

.54297

.96834

.95948

.72169

.70665

.55993

.92837

.88868

.80154

1·1§J!~L

1.14285

.82761

.80000

.93333

.88889

.78698

.78428

1 .22370

.88198

.38262

.77898

1 .06257

.78017

.69841

.64933

.58147
- 29 -

'able 1.

:omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

978

I Average absolute reV1S1on of I Average absolute reV1S1on of

I monthly levels I month-to-month cllanges

I I

I I I

I I I Rati 0 of I I I Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

I I factors I to I I factors I to

I I Iprojected I I Iprojected

I

I

I

16.91667 21.91667 0.77186 28.16667 38.58333 I 0,73002

36.08333 40.37630 .89368 52.25000 52.22038 I 1.00057

6.75000 11.24642 .60019 11.08333 16.84538 I .65795

27.33333 23.58744 1 .15881 28.00000 34.63487 I .80843

33.16667 34.25000 .96837 45.83333 36.83333 I 1 .24434

56.58333 30.16146 1.87601 57.25000 40.76563 I 1 .40437

32.50000 29.02572 1.11970 44.91667 36.63770 I 1 .22597

55.66667 36.17188 1 .53895 59.83333 45.81771 I 1 .30590

47.33333 54.20378 .87325 75.41667 82.63704 I .91263

30.58333 29.63399 1.03204 29.41667 41.67275 I .70590

55.41667 37.90104 1.46214 54.75000 46.98438 I 1.16528

60.00000 57.40104 1.04528 59.66667 76.76563 I .77726

56.00000 43.27604 1.29402 75.08333 65.65625 I 1.14358

.04447 .05198 .85547 .07090 .07868 I .90113

.20248 .23391 .86561 .32249 .39633 I .81369

.05375 .04946 1 .08680 .05451 .05655 I .96390

.07900 .10595 .74558 .12974 .13052 I .99405

.04167 .05000 .83rrr .09167 .09167 t - f~

.20000 .23333 .85714 .32500 .40833 I .79591

.03333 .04167 .80000 .05833 .09167 I .63636

.07500 .10000 .75000 .13333 .11667 1 .14286

13.66667 18.16667 .75229 10.16667 19.66667 .51695

12.58333 15.08333 .83425 19.66667 24.25000 .81100

27.58333 24.52148 1 .12486 27.83333 28.87309 .96399

26.00000 35.34377 .73563 45.08333 43.30534 1.04106

6.33333 10.03221 .63130 9.16667 14.63619 .62630

1.91667 3.90945 .49027 2.75000 4.31104 .63790

20.16667 18.65735 1 .08090 17.25000 18.04447 .95597

9.33333 14.86617 .62782 13.58333 22.22532 .61116

21 .25000 18.58333 1.14350 34.16667 28.83333 1.18497

17.75000 22.16667 .80075 17.33333 28.00000 .61905

29.41667 44.08659 .66725 20.50000 38.59049 .53122

48.16667 52.46810 .91802 50.08333 51.98893 .96335

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 , .

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

.i v iLian labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian '"

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 '"

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, women 20 and over .
- 30 -

able 1.

ompar;son stat;st;cs for evaluat;n9 concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force ser;es,

977-1982-Cont;nued

979

1

1 Average absolute revIsIon of 1 Average absolute revIsIon of

1 monthly levels 1 month-to-month changes

1 -. .- 1 -. .- _

1 1 1

1 1 1 Rat;o of 1 1 1 Rat;o of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, ;nd;rectly adjusted ser;es

;nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 '" .

!nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

gr;cultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

.gr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over '"

ionagr;cultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

;v;l;an labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 '"

;v;l;an labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

.gr;cultural employment, total c;v;l;an .

lonagr;cultural employment, total c;v;l;an .

:mployment, total c iv iLi an .

.I v iLi an labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total c;v;l;an .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone dec;mal), total c;v;l;an '"

Inemployment rateCone dec;mal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

!nemployment rateCone dec;mal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone dec;mal), women 20 years and over .

D;rectly adjusted component ser;es

!nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

.gr;cultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

.gr;cultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

.gr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

.gr;cultural employment, women 20 and over .

lonagr;cultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

lonagr;cultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

lonagr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

lonagr;cultural employment, women 20 and over .

15.00000

50.25000

7.91667

19.33333

37.50000

76.08333

39.58333

98.16667

62.25000

19.41667

71.91667

75.16667

91.58333

.05836

.15998

.06460

.07519

.05833

.14167

.06667

.09167

9.25000

10.75000

34.16667

25.58333

8.00000

2.91667

13.83333

11 .33333

29.25000

11.75000

37.33333

69.08333

20.33333

57.11491

9.18803

30.20062

43.91667

103.53125

33.57389

111.00521

70.38379

30.24042

111 .28125

117.67188

99.22396

.06584

.23232

.07966

.10475

.05833

.24167

.09167

.11667

8.25000

15.75000

41 .95081

34.81816

9.04887

2.80809

20.39256

13.91886

28.66667

19.75000

41 .93880

83.50098

0.7377 0

.87981

.86163

.64016

.85389

.73488

1.17899

.88434

.88444

.64208

.64626

.63878

.92300

.88638

.68863

.81087

.71780

,LOOOOO

.58620

.72727

.78571

1.12121

.68254

.81445

.73477

.88409

1.03866

.67835

.81424

1.02035

.59494

.89019

.82734

23.25000

63.16667

11.83333

26.16667

38.00000

74.91667

47.41667

100.41667

78.91667

31 .00000

65.91667

86.25000

117.50000

.07310

.25476

.07216

.10919

.07500

.24167

.07500

.12500

12.91667

17.83333

38.33333

37.16667

10.00000

3.50000

21.41667

13.25000

30.00000

12.00000

49.41667

69.83333

34.91667

73.01888

13.58738

37.28400

58.58333

99.61458

46.66569

114.92708

97.87044

38.64201

115.91667

121.48438

141 .58854

.09024

.40565

.08183

.14301

.08333

.42500

.09167

.15833

12.41667

25.66667

43.19222

50.38145

10.82151

3.67348

27.41506

15.69470

37.91667

25.83333

69.18815

69.82259

0.66587

.86507

.87091

.70182

.64865

.75207

1.01609

.87374

.80634

.80224

.56866

.70997

.82987

.81008

.62804

.88192

.76356

.90000

.56863

.81818

.78947

1 .04027

.69481

.88751

.73771

.92409

.95278

.78120

.84423

.79121

.46452

.71424

1.00015
- 31 -

able 1.

omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

980

I Average absolute reV1S1on of I Average absolute reV1Slon of

I monthly levels I month-to-month changes

I ~--------.---------I---------.--------.--------- I I

I I I Ratio of I I

IConcurrent Projected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected

I factors I to I I factors

I Ipro jected I I

I Ratio of

Iconcurrent

I to

Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

nemployment, total .

gricultural employment, total civilian .

onagricultural employment, total civilian .

mployment, total civilian .

iv iLian labor force, total .

nemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

nemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

nemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

26.00000

92.58333

7.50000

12.00000

40.58333

146.83333

45.08333

154.08333

113.58333

15.00000

162.58333

166.25000

163.83333

.10642

.23521

.13470

.08283

.10833

.23333

.12500

.06667

17.25000

12.41667

70.25000

29.16667

7.08333

3.08333

12.08333

12.08333

32.08333

18.33333

71.66667

84.83333

25.00000

106.60352

8.76921

17.55009

39.41667

123.42188

50.25944

174.55729

121.10352

21.19120

119.48438

133.33854

171.95833

.10823

.23736

.12974

.12468

.10000

.24166

.12500

.12500

16.58333

15.08333

69.64866

45.78042

7.32432

5.08260

16.11967

15.77344

35.83333

21.08333

51.47428

93.29655

1 .04000

.86848

.85527

.68376

1.02960

1.18969

.89701

.88271

.93790

.70784

1.36071

1 .24683

.95275

.98327

.99096

1.03820

.66435

·r:UETI3

.96553

1 .00000

.53333

1 .04020

.82320

1.00863

.63710

.96710

.60664

.74960

.76606

.89535

.86957

1 .39228

.90929

25.08333

80.00000

10.41667

15.83333

29.00000

96.41667

44.00000

113.08333

95.08333

20.91667

94.58333

108.33333

131.41667

.08414

.24709

.09002

.10780

.08333

.26667

.09167

.07500

19.08333

16.00000

46.75000

39.75000

8.16667

4.25000

16.50000

9.66667

23.91667

15.75000

54.50000

66.75000

38.16667

106.48177

12.26593

26.80064

45.33333

112.29167

73.60938

151.62500

119.98177

36.49792

103.37500

115.94792

186.66146

.10705

.36953

.11384

.15723

.12500

.39167

.11667

.14167

18.58333

24.58333

60.42503

58.06270

9.55806

5.28114

20.61117

18.33462

35.66667

24.83333

61.49414

100.72852

0.65721

.75130

.84924

.59078

.63971

.85863

.5977 5

.74581

.79248

.57309

.91495

.93433

.70404

.78604

.66867

.79075

J-m1-.

.68087

.78571

.52941

1 .02691

.65085

.7736 9

.68460

.85443

.80475

.80054

.52724

.67056

.63423

.88626

.66267
- 32 -

able 1.

omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

981

I

Average absolute reV1Sl0n of I Average absolute revision of

monthly levels I month-to-month changes

----------r---------.----------I----------~--------~--------- I

Ratio of I I

concurrentlConcurrentlProjected

to I I factors

projected I I

1

Concurrent IProjected

I factors

I

Ratio of

concurrent

to

projected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

!nemployment, total .

gricultural employment, total civilian .

:onagricultural employment, total civilian .

mp Lovman t , total civilian .

.i v iLian labor force, total .

!nemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

.gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

.gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

ionagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

ionagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

ionagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

ionagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

20.00000

74.00000

9.16667

18.75000

31.33333

204.33333

37.66667

180.41667

83.16667

26.25000

217 .66667

228.08333

202.75000

.07962

.19195

.12935

.07113

.07500

.18334

.12500

.06667

12.66667

13.66667

66.83333

25.50000

8.75000

1.75000

20.33333

16.41667

27.66667

25.33333

88.33333

116.00000

31.33333

96.44401

8.75682

15.71847

33.25000

188.29167

49.27995

171.20833

127.44401

23.04392

194.70833

211.31771

171.14063

.11280

.29580

.12996

.09091

.10833

.29167

.13333

.06667

1 16.91667

I 16.75000

I 66.83407

I 33.87830

110.22601

I 3.32549

I 20.84495

113.18557

1 32.00000

1 30.58333

1 83.94987

1112.10742

0.63830

.76728

1 .04680

1 .19286

.94236

1.08520

.76434

1 .05378

.65257

1.13913

1.11791

1 .07934

1.18470

.70580

.64893

.99530

.78252

.69231

.62858

.93750

1.00000

.74877

.81592

.99999

.75269

.85566

.52624

.97546

1.24505

.86458

.82834

1 .05222

1 .03472

27.16667

80.66667

11.91667

21.83333

39.50000

103.83333

44.41667

111.16667

94.83333

28.08333

95.00000

97.58333

107.91667

.08493

.29027

.13067

.08191

.08333

.30000

.11667

.05833

13.66667

19.33333

69.08333

33.58333

10.08333

3.33333

16.83333

13.33333

25.83333

21 .83333

51.16667

63.50000

34.75000

113.78874

11.60573

23.66317

39.08333

113.67708

63.74609

152.91146

134.53874

34.38645

120.92708

140.49479

178.12500

.11687

.31968

.14723

.12193

.10833

.34167

.15833

.09167

19.50000

21 .08333

78.44141

49.16978

10.29547

5.39932

26.77246

10.75114

31.91667

20.83333

68.76139

69.31022

0.78177

.70892

1.02679

.92267

1.01066

.91341

.69677

.72700

.70488

.81670

.78560

.69457

.60585

.72673

.90798

.88750

.67178

.76923

.87806

.73684

.63636

.70085

.91700

.88070

.68301

.97940

.61736

.62876

1.24018

.80940

1.04800

.74412

.91617
- 33 -

rable 1.

~omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1982

1

Average absolute reV1Sl0n of 1 Average absolute reV1Slon of

monthly levels 1 month-to-month changes

1

1 1

1 1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

ConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 1pl~ojected 1 1 Iprojected

1

1 1

1 1

20.83333 1 24.08333 0.86505 25.66667 1 30.00000 0.85556

33.58333 1 71.61230 .46896 48.83333 1 90.26986 .54097

8.58333 1 11.01878 .77897 11.50000 1 15.19902 .75663

19.00000 1 24.99290 .76022 15.41667 1 23.12301 .66672

31 .08333 1 29.75000 1.04482 38.25000 1 30.91667 1.23720

120.58333 1127.43750 .94622 59.00000 1 81.80729 .72121

29.83333 1 25.30404 1.17900 45.08333 39.76497 1 .13374

118.83333 1148.58333 .79978 86.58333 112.42708 .77013

45.25000 1 87.27832 .51846 64.33333 112.04980 .57415

27.41667 32.81726 .83543 23.25000 33.86987 .68645

109.33333 132.85417 .82296 70.75000 83.21354 .85022

115.41667 155.59896 .74176 77.33333 93.81250 .82434

122.66667 161.39583 .76004 101 .83333 143.21875 .71103

.03923 :07661 .51216 .05415 .08929 .60651

.23873 .25937 .92042 .28222 .32685 .86345

.08134 .12585 .64632 .09127 .15803 .57755

.05869 .05965 .98399 .04736 .05859 .80838

.05000 .06667 .75000 .09167 .10000 .91666

.22500 .23334 .96428 .25833 .28333 .91176

.08333 .14167 .58824 .10833 .17500 .61905

.05833 .05000 1.16667 .05000 .05833 .85714

11.91667 15.41667 .77297 15.41667 19.66667 .78390

10.25000 11.50000 .89130 12.91667 17.50000 .73810

41.83333 66.07845 .63309 47.00000 84.82259 .55410

22.25000 23.59646 .94294 18.83333 23.50045 .80140

7.08333 9.78070 .72422 9.16667 12.41323 .73846

3.83333 3.13600 1.22236 4.50000 3.99422 1.12663

22.33333 25.92716 .86139 14.75000 21.16237 .69699

14.16667 18.81618 .75290 10.16667 12.11892 .83891

22.16667 18.50000 1.19820 25.41667 23.00000 1.10507

14.25000 21.25000 .67059 21.33333 24.08333 .88581

39.41667 31.34570 1.25748 21 .25000 33.49740 .63438

83.83333 105.56576 .79413 54.75000 67.69694 .80875

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

'nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

'nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

.gricultural employment, total civilian .

ionagricultural employment, total civilian .

mp Levman t , total civilian .

iv iLian labor force, total .

nemployment rate(unroundedl, total civilian .

nemployment I~ate(unroundedl, both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rateCunroundedl, men 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(unroundedl, women 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone dec;mall, total c;vil;an .

nemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rateCone dec;mall, men 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone dec;mall, women 20 years and over .

D;rectly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gr;cultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagr;cultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .
- 34 -

able 1.

omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

ix-year average, 1977-82, All months

I Average absolute reV1Slon of Average absolute reV1Sl0n of

I monthly levels month-to-month changes I r- ~--------- .- .- _

I I I

I I Ratio of I I Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected concurrent ConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

I I factors to I factors I to

I I projected I Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

.gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

.gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 '" .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

.i v i Lien labor force, total .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

Igricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

Igricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

Igricultural employment, men 20 and over .

Igricultural employment, women 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

19.19444

53.43056

7.86111

19.29167

33.94444

110.37500

34.36111

107.26389

66.73611

23.18056

114.93056

121.36111

113.70833

.06308

.20307

.08890

.07792

.06111

.19583

.08472

.07500

13.01389

11.54167

45.59722

26.88889

7.41667

2.58333

17.40278

12.63889

24.59722

17.54167

51.97222

71.29167

22.86111

67.86995

9.76;)45

22.71969

35.55556

106.39931

35.76416

116.15712

83.36833

28.01235

112.52951

127.69531

120.85417

.07620

.24147

.09785

.09796

.06944

.23889

.10278

.09306

14.55556

13.94444

50.64509

34.44682

8.86471

3.75789

20.36197

14.48826

25.09722

22.90278

53.11220

78.89882

0.83961

.78725

.80466

.84912

.95469

1.03737

.96077

.9234.4

.80050

.82751

1.02134

.95040

.94087

.82778

.84098

.90861

.79541

.88000

.81977

.82432

.80597

.89408

.82769

.90033

.78059

.83665

.68744

.85467

.87235

.98008

.76592

.97854

.90358

24.84722

61.83333

11.31944

22.79167

36.41667

71.91667

41.19444

85.34722

77 .93056

27.33333

73.69444

84.05556

97.26389

.07102

.26919

.08362

.09900

.08194

.26528

.08611

.09306

14.20833

16.13889

43.18056

35.34722

9.43056

3.38889

17 .09722

12.94444

25.73611

18.37500

39.18056

55.23611

32.59722

81.14589

14.01106

29.35753

42.18056

86.74740

49.76215

108.86979

101 .33447

36.28760

92.52865

109.14583

134.04167

.09092

.34395

.10604

.11853

.09444

.34861

.11944

.11528

17.59722

21.19444

55.68533

42.53346

11.51044

4.64772

22.38854

15.95851

29.44444

25.84722

55.07313

67.52024

0.76225

.76200

.80789

.77635

.86335

.82904

.82783

.78394

.76904

.75324

.79645

.77012

.72562

.78107

.78264

.78863

.83517

.86765

.76096

.72093

.80723

.80742

.76147

.77544

.83105

.81930

.72915

.76366

.81113

.87406

.71091

.71143

.81807
- 35 -

Table 2.

~omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Cont;nued

1977

I Root mean square revision of

I monthly levels

I--------r-------~------- I I

I I I Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

I factors I to

I Iprojected

Root mean square reV1Sl0n of

month-to-month changes

I

I

ConcurrentlProjected

I f ac ter-e

I

I

I Ratio of

Iconcurrent

I to

Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

~gr;cultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

~gr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

;;vil;an labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

;;v;l;an labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

Igr;cultural employment, total civilian .

/onagricultural employment, total c;v;l;an .

:mployment, total c iv iLian .

:;vil;an labor force, total .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), total c;vil;an .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one dec ima l), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gr;cultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

21.81933

45.61158

8.18026

27.66466

34.63380

70.16409

28.88771

41.95732

61.20866

29.49152

86.05521

97.21754

51.55499

.06365

.24114

.07672

.13137

.07071

.25000

.08660

.11902

18.90326

12.68529

36.41543

41.86088

8.20061

2.41523

20.12875

15.26980

18.06008

22.03406

60.69459

33.71449

16.65333

45.95546

11.71693

27.90836

42.86510

79.62474

36.69644

63.84891

50.68548

34.67162

96.76909

107.87049

88.24615

.05257

.22167

.08578

.12054

.05774

.22546

.10000

.12247

14.86607

12.46328

41.00319

39.35505

8.39882

5.33132

23.67042

13.25658

19.62566

28.97269

77 .08963

36.35331

1.31021

.99252

.69816

.99127

.80797

.88118

.78721

.65713

1 .20762

.85060

.88928

.90124

.58422

1.21094

1.08784

.89434

1.08981

1 .22474

1 .10885

.86603

.97183

1.27157

1.01781

.88811

1 .06367

.97640

.45303

.85038

1 .15186

.92023

.76051

.78732

.92741

32.56404

65.80337

13.22246

36.84653

36.21349

58.85646

28.96262

51.67366

90.38529

40.64685

84.72209

110.41135

! 61.5711 0

I .09168

I .34906

I .08457

I .16432

I .11547

I .35119

I .10000

I .15811

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

I

21.81360

15.93999

40.21090

52.62129

12.03467

2.58199

19.63415

22.40164

19.16377

27.80288

54.81256

33.72437

23.25582

63.54953

16.69093

40.29734

50.55855

83.24952

41 .96487

96.13138

77.66703

45.84378

108.69253

136.41175

120.06656

.07838

.29796

.10364

.14571

.07638

.30138

.12247

.16073

21.26617

16.74067

49.20532

47.07194

13.23792

5.83403

25.18992

21.04724

21.72940

39.89570

76.61988

59.44785

1 .40025

1.03547

.79219

.91437

.71627

.70699

.69016

.53753

1.16375

.88664

.77947

.80940

.51281

1.16975

1.17150

.81599

1 .12773

1.51185

1.16527

.81650

.98374

1 .02574

.95217

.81721

1.11789

.90911

.44257

.77944

1 .06435

.88193

.69689

.71538

.56729
- 36 -

rable 2.

~omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1978

1 Root mean square revision of

1 monthly levels

I--------r-------~------- 1 1

1 1 1 Ratio of

IConcurrent Projected Iconcurrent

1 factors 1 to

1 Iprojected

Root mean square reV1Slon of

month-to-month changes

1

1

ConcurrentlProjected

1 factors

1

Ratio of

concurrent

to

projected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:i v iIi an labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

Igricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:iv i 1ian labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over 1

1

Directly adjusted component series 1

1

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 1

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 1

Inemployment, men 20 and over 1

!nemployment, women 20 and over 1

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 1

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 1

gricultural employment, men 20 and over 1

gricultural employment, women 20 and over 1

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 1

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 1

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over 1

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over 1

I ~ -L L_ _L ~L- _

25.28998

52.55394

9.96243

32.23094

41.55518

65.68041

42.44997

64.72635

68.58693

35.87362

69.86475

88.33270

69.97142

.06674

.25682

.06194

.10671

.07638

.25495

.05773

.11180

17.48809

15.88763

31.67149

35.36005

9.56556

2.50000

24.20399

12.35584

27.95085

21 .94501

38.88552

63.67103

37.95502

54.19065

13.51104

32.81760

37.96380

36.27026

37.03612

45.22443

72.16762

38.71862

45.93361

71.01643

50.77911

.06978

.37460

.05826

.13260

.08165

.35824

.06455

.13540

28.35195

19.71252

28.85206

43.75041

12.37590

5.17883

23.47142

19.55341

25.37551

25.94867

49.94464

60.87292

0.66631

.96980

.73735

.98212

1.09460

1.81086

1 .1461 8

1.43123

.95038

.92652

1 .52099

1 .24383

1 .37796

.95646

.68559

1 .06320

.80471

.93541

.71168

.89443

.82572

.61682

.80597

1 .09772

.80822

.77292

.48273

1.03121

.63190

1.10149

.84571

.77857

1 .04597

39.90614

66.02209

13.88344

31.81719

52.40070

66.64395

57.48261

71.71820

96.25703

36.63446

65.66392

77.88774

94.96096

.09090

.39944

.07021

.14938

.11180

.39264

.07638

.15275

20.62765

22.89105

36.02545

51.25183

11.97915

3.77492

21.47673

16.29673

40.41658

20.46542

27.52272

65.00577

61 .89036

67.97463

19.39873

40.60468

47.19287

47.59787

47.50576

56.74479

115.09210

46.49828

60.72612

95.79886

74.15024

.11048

.60516

.07153

.17259

.12583

.58807

.10408

.16833

36.86010

30.51366

35.89415

57.32708

17.04825

5.56273

21.48753

27.03473

34.85446

33.69718

46.02825

60.40217

0.64479

.97128

.71569

.78358

1.11035

1.40015

1.21001

1.26387

.83635

.78787

1.08131

.81303

1 .28066

.82277

.66005

.98152

.86552

.88852

.66766

.73380

.90749

.55962

.75019

1.00366

.89402

.70266

.67861

.99950

.60281

1.15958

'.60733

.59795

1 .07622
- 37 -

rable 2.

:omparison statistics for evaluatin9 concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of majol~ labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1979

I

Root mean square revision of I Root mean square reV1Sl0n of

monthly levels I month-to-month changes

--------~---------.----------I---------.--------~r_-------- I I

I I Ratio of I

ConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrent Projected

I factors I to I factors

I 'projected ,

Ratio of

concurrent

to

projected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

Igricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:ivilian labor force, total .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian ~ .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

'nemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

!nemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

!nemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

!nemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

23.39872

67.07893

12.54658

23.97221

49.48400

107.98495

53.69590

114.63784

84.82875

23.75044

90.01157

95.56324

111 .44244

.07797

.21634

.08506

.09632

.08660

.19791

.09129

.11180

13.53083

13.79915

45.17189

32.52051

11 .13553

3.50000

18.46167

12.56317

41.44374

13.41951

45.83303

90.19470

28.78657

79.65445

11.76466

34.09310

57.76028

125.47033

50.55428

133.64018

101.04102

36.06057

121. 20975

131 .43847

121.70095

.09482

.30896

.09730

.12560

.08660

.32016

.10408

.14142

11.84272

20.36132

51 .49506

42.86627

10.71686

3.35842

25.71943

16.12422

42.03570

24.91820

54.17623

101.32860

0.81283

.84212

1 .06646

.70314

.85671

.86064

1.06214

.85781

.83955

.65863

.74261

.72706

.91571

.82227

.70022

.87425

.76688

1 .00000

.61815

.87706

.79057

1 .14254

.67771

.87721

.75865

1.03907

1.04216

.71781

.77915

.98592

.53854

.84600

.89012

30.71509

74.61903

15.95306

30.73272

53.91506

99.81775

65.02500

125.49336

96.28820

36.23304

99.96124

116.67440

154.67547

I .08679

I .30111

I .08686

I .12282

, .09574

, .28137

, .09574

, .14434

I

I

I

I

I

,

,

I

,

I

I

I

,

I

I

15.38127

20.68010

46.62439

42.96510

13.21615

4.08248

24.55436

17.06605

42.54605

14.46836

56.07213

89.86657

44.27471

88.68892

16.03223

43.34192

71 .72343

131.11863

67.59051

150.97020

122.07885

47.00674

148.28060

162.24040

176.99721

.11266

.47194

.09784

.16463

.10801

.49075

.11180

.18028

18.49549

29.30301

51 .98587

58.60807

13.90334

4.22155

31.58173

21 .87624

50.82076

28.70250

76.70297

98.13062

0.69374

.84136

.99506

.70908

.75171

.76128

.96204

.83125

.78874

.77081

.67414

.71915

.87389

.77035

.63801

.88774

.74608

.88641

.57334

.85635

.80064

.83162

.70573

.89687

.73309

.95057

.96706

.77749

.78012

.83718

.50408

.73103

.91579
- 38 -

able 2.

omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

980

I Root mean square revision of I Root mean square reV1S1on of

I monthly levels I month-to-month changes

I I

I I I

I I I Rat i 0 of I I I Ratio of

IConcurrent Projected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

1

I

1

31.03493 33.69471 0.92106 1 40.58838 50.83470 0.79844

117.24654 132.77769 .88303 1 83.92656 120.77917 .69488

9.69536 12.10933 .80065 I 11.60819 14.83346 .78257

16.48737 22.32545 .73850 1 19.14854 35.35260 .54164

45.92294 49.40057 .92960 1 35.72348 66.73455 .53531

176.00237 165.64630 1.06252 1109.57760 146.09032 .75007

56.70611 64.57474 .87815 1 64.52777 94.61093 .68203

183.51771 212.15370 .86502 1131.19356 181 .98339 .72091

135.01759 153.27438 .88089 104.70793 152.90875 .68477

19.85783 28.24283 .70311 26.84368 46.09752 .58232

192.05663 150.88757 1 .27285 104.96626 1135.79828 .77296

202.14578 160.60324 1.25867 119.39849 1160.60005 .74345

196.93315 219.63840 .89662 160.85889 1235.68188 .68253

.12345 .13386 .92225 .09114 1 .13144 .69342

.27376 .29719 .92115 .34001 I .45663 .74461

.17131 .16722 1 .02441 .09900 1 .14368 .68900

.10215 .14933 .68406 .11797 I .18091 .65206

.12583 .12910 .97468 .10801 1 .13844 .78019

.27689 .30957 .89444 .36515 1 .47871 .76279

.18028 .16583 1.08711 .11180 I .15275 .73192

.09129 .15000 .60858 .10408 I .17559 .59275

1

1

22.03596 19.78846 1 .11358 27.87920 26.13905 1.06657

15.71358 18.54050 .84753 20.34699 28.86607 .70488

89.42082 89.26688 1.00172 52.30758 75.56428 .69223

35.58558 54.26436 .65578 43.07842 66.96840 .64326

8.95824 9.73081 .92061 9.41630 11.53896 .81604

3.77492 5.92649 .63696 5.07445 6.43303 .78881

15.97655 19.91966 .80205 20.79663 28.45083 .73097

14.47699 17.17239 .84304 13.31040 24.12873 .55164

37.02139 48.29251 .76661 29.25036 50.10655 .58376

21.51356 25.18763 .85413 19.15942 30.02776 .63806

79.12543 59.33214 1 .33360 67.91784 73.84690 .91971

111.39270 127.60761 .87293 80.03489 121.07585 .66103

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

nemployment, total .

gricultural employment, total civilian '"

onagricultural employment, total civilian .

mployment, total civilian .

iv iIian labor force, total .

nemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian .

nemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over '"

nemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian '" .

nemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 '"

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 , .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .
- 39 -

fable 2.

:omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1981

I

I Root mean square revision of I Root mean square reV1Slon of

I monthly levels I month-to-month changes

I I

I 1

1 1 1 Ratio of I 1 1 Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected 1concur-r-en t

1 1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 1 Iprojected I 1 Iprojected

1 1

1 1

1 1

25.98397 38.12917 0.68147 1 35.82829 1 50.71078 0.70652

103.59295 131 .63027 .78700 1104.31443 1129.79788 .80367

11 .17288 11.49458 .97201 1 13.75076 1 14.30584 .96120

21.75814 19.98211 1.08888 1 25.91010 1 29.22331 .88662

42.83106 41.49598 1.03217 1 54.69004 53.31432 1.02580

233.58260 223.18689 1 .04658 1117.44644 147.28575 .79741

52.84253 63.11425 .83725 1 54.44493 86.84455 .62692

202.78827 213.79698 .94851 1132.01389 186.79887 .70672

116.47675 157.52158 .73943 1124.41664 159.94120 .77789

30.03470 28.19357 1 .06530 1 33.30540 37.80872 .88089

244.04235 227.78891 1 .07135 119.18613 148.50635 .80257

256.82793 245.81877 1.04479 127.40323 172.06959 .74042

221.06353 222.88983 .99181 138.75848 219.82766 .63121

.10864 .14214 .76437 .10981 .13829 .79405

.24656 .34674 .71109 .37224 .43897 .84799

.17886 .20211 .88493 .16418 .18104 .90687

.09348 .11548 .80943 .09975 .14642 .68128

.11180 .13229 .84515 .11547 .13844 .83406

.25166 .34521 .72903 .38514 .44064 .87405

.18028 .20412 .88318 .15811 .18930 .83527

.09129 .10801 .84515 .07638 .11902 .64169

16.17611 21 .58510 .74941 19.12677 27.89265 .68573

15.51881 20.62967 .75226 22.30844 28.01636 .79626

91 .38381 103.64260 .88172 85.60617 94.71712 .90381

33.02777 43.25410 .76358 38.87909 57.13417 .68049

10.38829 12.08562 .85956 11.80748 12.57959 .93862

2.53311 4.24163 .59720 3.95811 6.19662 .63875

23.34167 27.05099 .86288 20.77659 30.73925 .67590

19.75896 16.14577 1 .22379 20.54669 13.45928 1 .52658

31.87214 37.55219 .84874 39.95831 46.77517 .85426

29.76295 34.92969 .85208 25.57016 28.59779 .89413

104.01442 103.96205 1 .00050 61.01776 84.00282 .72638

139.11446 133.07448 1 .04539 81 .06890 94.72951 .85579

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 ..................•

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

lnemployment, total .

\gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:ivilian labor force, total .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

'nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .
- 40 -

able 2.

omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

982

1 1

1 Root mean square revision of 1 Root mean square reV1Slon of

1 monthly levels 1 month-to-month changes

I ~--------~--------I---------.--------~-------- 1 1

1 1 Ratio of 1 1

IConcurrent Projected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected

1 factors 1 to 1 factors

1 Iprojected 1

Ratio of

concurrent

to

projected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

nemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

nemployment, total .

gricultural employment, total civilian .

onagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

'ivilian labor force, total .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian 1

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

~employment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

25.51470

40.95221

12.54658

23.88514

35.43421

132.60373

35.06185

131.23960

56.45573

34.14308

129.04457

138.44223

133.40227

.05145

.29257

.09100

.07409

.07071

.27839

.10000

.08660

15.69766

13.01602

46.85972

28.65164

9.86154

4.60072

24.44040

16.39105

27.63753

17.46186

48.03731

99.81483

27.87024

85.61814

13.49473

28.64043

33.70584

148.02076

34.61248

163.95446

105.87838

37.60369

147.05502

168.55211

179.99919

.09093

.29728

.15184

.07761

.09129

.27689

.17078

.07071

18.64806

14.22439

79.46526

29.26992

12.13021

3.74477

30.36115

21.51910

23.27373

25.28998

38.51590

121.09733

0.91548

.47831

.92974

.83397

1.05128

.89585

1. 01298

.80046

.53321

.90797

.87753

.82136

.74113

.56587

.98418

.59933

.95467

.77459

1 .00542

.58554

1 .22474

.84179

.91505

.58969

.97888

.81297

1 .22857

.80499

.76170

1.18750

.69047

1 .24721

.82425

32.83799

60.44695

13.76590

19.20720

49.47979

83.40763

55.99033

107.75783

83.66401

28.35636

110.68913

124.00336

135.83200

.07228

.34521

.11598

.06087

.11180

.31491

.14434

.07071

20.07278

16.88441

60.95080

22.15852

10.69268

5.62731

16.24551

14.27702

34.54828

26.26468

25.10810

72.53218

39.57272

107.65147

17.55591

27.99076

46.44082

100.64548

52.70103

151.58411

138.91520

38.71941

114.87553

133.39734

188.15255

.11564

.41190

.17997

.07819

.13540

.37639

.19791

.08660

23.74167

22.30471

95.83087

29.47804

14.72044

4.82771

25.06104

16.80198

31.65175

29.72793

39.06126

81.21778

0.82981

.56151

.78412

.68620

1.06544

.82873

1.06241

.71088

.60227

.73236

.96356

.92958

.72192

.62499

.83810

.64442

.77843

.82572

.83666

.72933

.81650

.84547

.75699

.63602

.75170

.72638

1.16563

.64824

.84972

1.09151

.88350

.64279

.89306
- 41 -

rable 2.

~omparison statistics fOI~ evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

>ix-year average, 1977-82, All months

1

Root mean square revision of 1 Root mean square reV1Slon of

monthly levels 1 month-to-month changes

________~---------,----------I---------,--------~~-------- 1 1 1

1 1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

ConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 25.66613

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over 76.91689

\gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 10.79995

\gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over 24.81459

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 41.98015

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over 143.77012

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 46.11037

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over 136.08662

Jnemployment, total............................................... 91.86078

~gricultural employment, total civilian 29.39081

lonagricultural employment, total civilian 149.15517

:mployment, total civilian 1159.36122

:ivilian labor force, total 144.58057

Jnemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian. .08590

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19.......... .25568

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over........ .12012

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over.... .10213

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian.... .09280

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19.... .25304

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over.. .12528

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over..... .10274

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

inemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

31.39135

94.58706

12.37680

28.09566

44.55957

142.92170

49.37166

153.61263

113.65356

1 34.17648

142.85539

157.36663

160.98532

.10248

.31141

.13668

.12217

.10000

.30912

.14337

.12416

0.81762

.81319

.87260

.88322

.94211

1 .00594

.93394

.88591

.80825

.85997

1.04410

1.01267

.89810

.83825

.82106

.87885

.83599

.92796

.81858

.87379

.82746

1 1

1 1

1 1

35.60372 I 46.64270

77.28303 1 99.62325

13.75631 1 16.55712

28.05179 1 36.60243

47.74847 1 56.83346

91.85753 115.14710

55.72901 68.13825

107.86830 145.05328

100.12430 130.66580

34.01225 43.83121

99.12716 123.27514

113.82333 145.66097

129.30127 178.19174

.09109 .11606

.35247 .45618

.10788 .13616

.12381 .15188

.10992 .12247

.35060 .45506

.11785 .15092

.12304 .15230

17.51150 19.87600 .88104 21.14993 26.38787

14.49665 17.93584 .80825 20.01041 26.41233

61.79615 70.93487 .87117 56.07745 71.03630

34.73311 42.76428 .81220 43.01179 54.09113

9.73111 11.00339 .88437 11 .58603 13.94796

3.32081 4.71982 .70359 4.29470 5.56612

21.32780 25.24227 .84492 20.72740 27.31318

15.34239 17.49625 .87690 17.61549 21 .20569

31.55749 34.35133 .91867 35.25325 40.76389

21.60536 27.77214 .77795 22.77395 32.02668

66.68833 67.31051 .99076 51 .43348 68.20089

95.78615 103.24053 .92780 72.66103 88.54515

0.76333

.77575

.83084

.76639

.84015

.7977 4

.81788

.74365

.76626

.77598

.80411

.78143

.72563

.78492

.77265

.79231

.81519

.89753

.77043

.78087

.80790

.80150

.75762

.78942

.79517

.83066

.77158

.75888

.83070

.86482

.71109

.75415

.82061
- 42 -

fable 3.

;omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

!977-1982-Continued

1977

1

1 Root mean square proportional 1 Root mean square reV1Slon of

1 revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

~ ~--------_r---------I---------.--------_.--------- 1 1 1

1 1 1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

lnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

~employment, both sexes 20 and over .

Igricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Igricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

lnemployment, total .

Igricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:ivilian labor force, total .

lnemployment rateCunrounded), total civ i1ian .

lnemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over 1

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian 1

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 1

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over 1

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

Igricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

.gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

.gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

.gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

0.01269

.00872

.02037

.00941

.00477

.00086

.00310

.00047

.00888

.00881

.00097

.00105

.00052

.00914

.01314

.01379

.01803

.00997

.01365

.01587

.01630

.02050

.01613

.01292

.01698

.02442

.03674

.00859

.02673

.00477

.00638

.00125

.00101

0.00988

.00856

.02886

.00973

.00585

.00098

.00390

.00071

.00718

.01055

.00109

.00117

.00089

.·00737

.01232

.01557

.01572

.00820

.01253

.01828

.01600

.01650

.01608

.01470

.01541

.02465

.07266

.01018

.02454

.00513

.00837

.00160

.00108

1 .28448

1.01927

.70580

.96755

.81671

.87493

.79560

.65746

1 .23604

.83450

.88852

.90438

.58592

1 .24081

1 .06654

.88572

1.14683

1.21472

1 .09009

.86815

1. 01868

1.24299

1 .00276

.87859

1 .10235

.99054

.50572

.84380

1.08960

.93025

.76186

.78528

.92937

0.01904

.01212

.03331

.01253

.00506

.00073

.00314

.00058

.01285

.01210

.00096

.00120

.00062

.01285

.01902

.01516

.02168

.01607

.01926

.01843

.02095

.02306

.02035

.01426

.02069

.03657

.04179

.00840

.03934

.00513

.00813

.00114

.00102

0.01406

.01126

.04242

.01368

.00696

.00103

.00448

.00108

.01063

.01356

.00123

.00148

.00122

.01059

.01654

.01872

.01834

.01051

.01683

.02265

.02064

.02350

.02158

.01754

.01786

.03977

.08595

.01077

.03736

.00583

.01169

.00159

.00178

1.35475

1 .07622

.78527

.91591

.72660

.70914

.70018

.53826

1.20915

.89250

.78237

.81187

.51331

1 .21256

1.15006

.80989

1.18226

1.52938

1.14463

.81332

1.01509

.98135

.94298

.81299

1.15835

.91948

.48621

.77974

1 .05294

.88120

.69540

.71623

.57643
- 43 -

Table 3.

Comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1978

1 Root mean square proportional 1 Root mean square reV1Sl0n of

1 revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change 1 1 .- ---;;-- _

1 1 1

1 1 1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

IConcurrent Projected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 factors 1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

1 Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over '" .

~gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

~gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

~onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

~onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

lnemployment, total .

\gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian ,.

:ivilian labor force, total .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

'nemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

'nemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

!nemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over 1

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 '"

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over '" .

0.01648

.01141

.02552

.01080

.00538

.00077

.00436

.00070

.01116

.01062

.00075

.00092

.00068

.01105

.01609

.01391

.01677

.01271

.01591

.01286

.01753

.02250

.02067

.01368

.01559

.03042

.03354

.01015

.02112

.00691

.00599

.00078

.00181

0.02492

.01169

.03:585

.01103

.00492

.00043

.00384

.00049

.01174

.01148

.00050

.00074

.00050

.01156

.02386

.01330

.02065

.01351

.02282

.01479

.02103

.03715

.02548

.01262

.01919

.03938

.06208

.00985

.03335

.00624

.00706

.00100

.00173

0.66111

.97665

.75385

.97970

1.09307

1.80161

1.13624

1.431 ~3

.95057

.92514

1.51613

1 .24248

1.37814

.95606

.67422

1.04602

.81220

.94071

.69729

.86961

.83355

.60559

.81126

1 .08400

.81221

.77242

.54030

1.02997

.63344

1 .10735

.84878

.77261

1.04916

0.02556

.01409

.03526

.01077

.00679

.00079

.00590

.00078

.01529

.01091

.00071

.00082

.00093

.01462

.02433

.01544

.02319

.01823

.02395

.01638

.02362

.02738

.02960

.01529

.02241

.03767

.05105

.00912

.02808

.00996

.00559

.00055

.00186

0.04134

.01455

.04539

.01397

.00617

.00057

.00492

.00061

.01852

.01406

.00066

.00100

.00073

.01805

.03887

.01598

.02624

.02037

.03783

.02318

.02577

.05359

.03874

.01539

.02476

.05053

.06336

.00916

.04768

.00861

.00914

.00093

.00174

0.61826

.96822

.77684

.77056

1.10031

1.39141

1.19971

1 .26497

.82546

.77613

1.07786

.81242

1.28179

.81003

.62586

.96622

.88371

.89503

.63308

.70688

.91688

.51091

.76417

.99354

.90508

.74554

.80565

.99644

.58901

1 .15753

.61184

.59717

1.06974
- 44 -

'able 3.

:omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

979

1

Root mean square proportional 1 Root mean square reV1S1on of

revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

----------r---------~---------I----------r---------,_--------- 1 1

1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

1 to 1 1 factors 1 to

Iprojected 1 1 Iprojected

1

ConcurrentlProjected

1 factors

1

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 1

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

.i v t Lt an labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over 1

nemployment, women 20 and over 1

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 1

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 '" 1

gricultural employment, men 20 and over 1

gricultural employment, women 20 and over 1

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 '" 1

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 1

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over 1

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over 1

I--------~--------~------~~------~--------~-----

0.01518

.01502

.03185

.00804

.00645

.00123

.00562

.00120

.01420

.00710

.00094

.00097

.00106

.01362

.01343

.02015

.01579

.01503

.01227

.02131

.01832

.01708

.01848

.02011

.01432

.03386

.06060

.00773

.02062

.01038

.00359

.00090

.00244

0.01870

.01777

.03151

.01140

.00755

.00143

.00530

.00140

.01687

.01079

.00127

.00133

.00116

.01652

.01920

.02272

.02088

.01503

.01984

.02404

.02342

.01499

.02754

.02258

.01911

.03488

.05502

.01075

.02683

.01053

.00670

.00106

.00274

0.81183

.84482

1.01080

.70513

.85471

.86065

1.05983

.85820

.84218

.65823

.74169

.72605

.91743

.82406

.69969

.88686

.75633

1 .00000

.61871

.88663

.78229

1 .13896

.67108

.89059

.74926

.97063

1.10148

.71892

.76880

.98546

.53583

.84501

.88864

0.01940

.01674

.04243

.01031

.00716

.00114

.00687

.00132

.01598

.01081

.00105

.00118

.00148

.01503

.01844

.02068

.02049

.01652

.01726

.02260

.02348

.01889

.02781

.02090

.01920

.04114

.07172

.01024

.02682

.01084

.00396

.00110

.00244

0.02784

.01978

.04474

.01432

.00949

.00150

.00720

.00159

.02014

.01381

.00156

.00164

.00170

.01939

.02866

.02309

.02746

.01859

.02985

.02572

.02985

.02214

.03955

.02314

.02610

.04680

.07845

.01311

.03438

.01293

.00779

.00151

.00268

0.69679

.84636

.94838

.71992

.75457

.76013

.95504

.83096

.79343

.78233

.67407

.71981

.87458

.77505

.64349

.89563

.74633

.88838

.57810

.87872

.78663

.85296

.70312

.90331

.73570

.87899

.91420

.78048

.77997

.83788

.50752

.72998

.91201
- 45 -

Table 3.

Comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

1977-1982-Continued

1980

I

Root mean square proportional I Root mean square reV1Slon of

revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

__________~----------~--------_I----------~----------~--------- I I

I I Ratio of I

ConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrent Projected

I factors I to I factors

I Iprojected I

I Ratio of

Iconcurrent

I to

Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Jnemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Jnemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

\gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

~onagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

~onagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

;ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

Igricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:ivi 1ian labor force, total .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 '" .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate Cone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

0.01802

.02114

.02536

.00548

.00621

.00199

.00604

.00188

.01857

.00584

.00201

.00204

.00184

.01806

.01504

.03021

.01507

.01844

.01511

.03155

.01320

.02322

.02136

.02975

.01382

.02857

.05402

.00666

.02531

.00962

.00608

.00156

.00294

0.01969

.02293

.03216

.00752

.00684

.00187

.00690

.00218

.02041

.00837

.00157

.00162

.00205

.01902

.01651

.02747

.02190

.01836

.01720

.02735

.02194

.02149

.02426

.02767

.02085

.03147

.08078

.00833

.02910

.01285

.00708

.00117

.00336

0.91515

.92199

.78871

.72840

.90842

1.06370

.87548

.86546

.91009

.69830

1 .27480

1 .26056

.89678

.94929

.91081

1.09959

.68825

1 .00436

.87831

1.15344

.60190

1.08042

.88017

1 .07495

.66254

.90775

.66871

.79894

.86960

.74849

.85803

1 .33570

.87401

0.02308

.01581

.03087

.00636

.00493

.00124

.00678

.00135

.01467

.00793

.00110

.00120

.00150

.01360

.01856

.01881

.01763

.01626

.01992

.01965

.01498

.02993

.02620

.01892

.01681

.03087

.07823

.00862

.02445

.00781

.00532

.00133

.00211

0.02980

.02183

.04212

.01177

.00940

.00165

.01008

.00186

.02083

.01367

.00142

.00162

.00220

.01917

.02535

.02517

.02726

.02003

.02654

.02691

.02632

.02928

.03648

.02499

.02631

.03976

.09437

.01177

.04300

.01374

.00839

.00145

.00319

0.77429

.72443

.73293

.54045

.52465

.74959

.67280

.72178

.70395

.58037

.77106

.74142

.68255

.70956

.73235

.74716

.64666

.81139

.75077

.73009

.56898

1.02219

.71818

.75721

.63900

.77646

.82892

.73293

.56850

.56838

.63439

.91888

.66099
- 46 -

'able 3,

:omparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force series,

977-1982-Continued

981

Root mean square proportional 1 Root mean square reV1Sl0n of

revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

________ -. -. 1 -. -. _

1 I

1 Ratio of 1 1 1 Ratio of

Concurrent Projected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

factors I to 1 1 factors 1 to

Iprojected I 1 Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

Igricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

,gricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagricultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagricultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total civilian .

:ivilian labor force, total .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

Inemployment, men 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, women 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, men 20 and over .

Inemployment, women 20 and over .

.gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

.gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over 1

I ~ ~ L_ -L ~L- _

0.01478

.01523

.02941

.00724

.00633

.00259

.00584

.00204

.01360

.00892

.00252

.00256

.00204

.01393

.01254

.02493

.01278

.01455

.01279

.02562

.01241

.01699

.01964

.02369

.01137

.03288

.03857

.00985

.03202

.00917

.00898

.00203

.00357

0.02178

.01882

.02973

.00676

.00614

.00247

.00699

.00215

.01816

.00849

.00235

.00245

.00205

.01783

.01747

.02687

.01570

.01678

.01732

.02778

.01449

.02265

.02568

.02582

.01491

.03850

.06418

.01143

.02688

.01072

.01070

.0020;)

.00341

0.67831

.80919

.98942

1.07091

1 .03027

1.04779

.83477

.94962

.74871

1 .05132

1.07189

1.04461

.99402

.78090

.71792

.92786

.81408

.86709

.73824

.92218

.85621

.74994

.76490

.91753

.76304

.85425

.60104

.86177

1.19104

.85515

.83898

1.00103

1.04810

0.02042

.01620

.03445

.00840

.00805

.00130

.00596

.00133

.01538

.00956

.00123

.00127

.00128

.01469

.01965

.02433

.01377

.01559

.02031

.02378

.01048

.02060

.02806

.02379

.01366

.03650

.05386

.00862

.03012

.01160

.00760

.00120

.00206

0.02817

.02002

.03650

.00958

.00769

.00163

.00931

.00188

.01958

.01103

.00153

.00171

.00201

.01836

.02301

.02649

.02019

.01847

.02307

.02867

.01625

.02900

.03441

.02608

.02002

.04011

.08304

.01286

.02254

.01331

.00850

.00164

.00241

0.72479

.80911

.94403

.87677

1. 04739

.79944

.63980

.71040

.78559

.86652

.80438

.74133

.63786

.80008

.85412

.91853

.68227

.84381

.88021

.82916

.64517

.71033

.81559

.91199

.68205

.91007

.64852

.67005

1.33616

.87144

.89436

.72728

.85590
- 47 -

'able 3.

:ompar;son statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labol~ force series,

977-1982-Cont;nued

982

I I

I Root mean square proportional I Root mean square reV1Slon of

I revision of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

~ ~--~--------~--------I---------.--------.---------

I I I

I I I Ratio of I I I Rat;o of

IConcurrentlProjected IconcurrentlConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent

I I factors I to I I factors I to

I I Iprojected I I Iprojected

Aggregated, indirectly adjusted series

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

Igr;cultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

.gr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagr;cultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagr;cultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:;v;l;an labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:;v;l;an labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gr;cultural employment, total c;vil;an .

lonagr;cultural employment, total civ;l;an .

:mployment, total c iv iLian .

.i v i Lian labor force, total .

!nemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian .

nemployment rateCunrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rateCunrounded), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCunrounded), women 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone decimal), total civil;an .

nemployment rateCone decimal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

nemployment rateCone decimal), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rateCone decimal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component series

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagr;cultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

0.01296

·.00486

.03101

.00786

.00578

.00147

.00415

.00129

.00551

.00989

.00134

.00139

.00121

.00547

.01269

.00918

.00772

.00722

.01207

.00992

.00922

.01461

.01453

.00891

.00750

.02990

.06951

.01011

.02719

.00903

.00565

.00096

.00252

0.01422

.00974

.03531

.00943

.00554

.00164

.00405

.00162

.00988

.01096

.00153

.00169

.00164

.00930

.01283

.01491

.00888

.00931

.01191

.01658

.00802

.01726

.01623

.01486

.00835

.03802

.05529

.01256

.03555

.00764

.00824

.00076

.00307

0.91080

.49915

.87819

.83349

1 .04384

.89592

1.02350

.79848

.55788

.90274

.87754

.82113

.74022

.58862

.98888

.61536

.86982

.77592

1.01341

.59821

1.14943

.84658

.89536

.59990

.89737

.78634

1.25709

.80460

.76472

1.18207

.68586

1 .25350

.82333

0.01700

.00763

.03859

.00635

.00796

.00092

.00658

.00106

.00856

.00828

.00115

.00124

.00123

.00809

.01535

.01295

.00682

.01185

.01410

.01602

.00812

.01891

.01895

.01283

.00621

.03578

.10100

.00679

.02463

.01152

.00834

.00050

.00184

0.02052

.01309

.04900

.00939

.00755

.00112

.00610

.00150

.01366

.01152

.00119

.00134

.00171

.01252

.01847

.01964

.00903

.01453

.01689

.02111

.01005

.02212

.02630

.01973

.00850

.04830

.08952

.01050

.02818

.01039

.00946

.00077

.00206

0.82839

.58304

.78752

.67646

1.05322

.82631

1 .07880

.70804

.62679

.71900

.96032

.92546

.71954

.64635

.83109

.65958

.75602

.81509

.83482

.75881

.80785

.85471

.72033

.65023

.73092

.74075

1.12824

.64693

.87390

1 .10807

.88155

.64265

.89150
- 48 -

"able 3.

:omparlson statlstlcs for evaluatlng concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor seasonal adjustment of major labor force serles,

977-1982-Contlnued

ilx-year average, 1977-82, All months

I

I Root mean square proportl0nal I Root mean square reV1Sl0n of

I revisl0n of monthly levels Imonth-to-month percentage change

~ -r ~--------I--------~--------~--------

I I

I I I Ratio of I I

IConcurrentlProjected Iconcurrent ConcurrentlProjected

I I factors I to I factors

I I Iprojected I

I Ratlo of

Iconcur-r ant

I to

Iprojected

Aggregated, lndlrectly adjusted serles I

I

Inemployment, both sexes 16 to 19 I

Inemployment, both sexes 20 and over .

,grlcultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

,grlcultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

lonagrlcultural employment, both sexes 16 to 19 .

lonagrlcultural employment, both sexes 20 and over .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 16 to 19 .

:ivilian labor force, both sexes 20 and over .

Inemployment, total .

,gricultural employment, total civilian .

lonagrlcultural employment, total civilian .

:mployment, total c iv III an .

.i v iLien labor force, total .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), total civillan .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), men 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(unrounded), women 20 years and over .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian .

Inemployment rate(one declmal), both sexes 16 to 19 .

Inemployment rate(one decimal), men 20 years and over .

nemployment rate(one declmal), women 20 years and over .

Directly adjusted component serles

nemployment, men 16 to 19 .

nemployment, women 16 to 19 .

nemployment, men 20 and over .

nemployment, women 20 and over .

gricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

grlcultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

gricultural employment, men 20 and over .

gricultural employment, women 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, men 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, women 16 to 19 .

onagricultural employment, men 20 and over .

onagricultural employment, women 20 and over .

0.01513

.01375

.02754

.00831

.00585

.00162

.00497

.00139

.01268

.00868

.00156

.00161

.00135

.01252

.01388

.02003

.01475

.01348

.01371

.02090

.01484

.01941

.01863

.01951

.01362

.03016

.05064

.00894

.02579

.00853

.00631

.00132

.00252

0.01886

.01581

.03198

.00946

.00620

.00161

.00534

.00156

.01482

.01018

.00149

.00159

.00150

.01430

.01747

.02096

.01786

.01403

.01736

.02208

.01827

.02291

.02301

.02057

.01682

.03486

.06565

.01060

.02963

.00926

.00814

.00134

.00271

0.80257

.86943

.86115

.87782

.94399

1.00590

.93035

.88640

.85591

.85304

1.04323

1.01217

.89859

.87569

.79446

.95604

.82591

.96097

.78956

.94662

.81250

.84696

.80942

.94855

.80963

.86519

.77129

.84381

.87046

.92087

.77541

.98620

.92938

0.02094

.01412

.03601

.00940

.00677

.00104

.00601

.00111

.01402

.01004

.00105

.00116

.00122

.01336

.01941

.01830

.01814

.01587

.01937

.01969

.01802

.02351

.02548

.01809

.01735

.03655

.06918

.00869

.02935

.00976

.00669

.00102

.00194

0.02824

.01722

.04353

.01229

.00797

.00131

.00732

.00149

.01763

.01300

.00130

.00149

.00167

.01671

.02620

.02183

.02240

.01744

.02623

.02485

.02250

.03189

.03351

.02150

.02152

.04444

.08304

.01145

.03652

.01117

.00925

.00136

.00236

0.74149

.82018

.82738

.76529

.85013

.79814

.82098

.74558

.79504

.77272

.80376

.78188

.72891

.79952

.74077

.83822

.80985

.90994

.73845

.79254

.80077

.73717

.76052

.84110

.80633

.82246

.83312

.75945

.80350

.87316

.72361

.75273

.81952
- 49 -

rable 4.

Ratios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-pl~ojected-factor

seasonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and year, 1977-1982

I

I Average I I Root mean Root mean I Root mean

I Average absolute I Root mean I sCfuare sCfuare I square

I absolute I revision of I squal~e I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

I I I I I I change

Unemployment rate(one decimal), total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.88000 0.86765 0.92796 0.89753 0.96097 0.90994

All months, 1977 .............. 1 .00000 1.14285 1 .22474 1.51185 1.21472 1.52938

All months, 1978 .............. .83333 1 .00000 .93541 .88852 .94071 .89503

All months, 1979 .............. 1 .00000 .90000 1 .00000 .88641 1 .00000 .88838

All months, 1980 .............. 1 .08333 .66667 .97468 .78019 1 .00436 .81139

All months, 1981 .............. .69231 .76923 .84515 .83406 .86709 .84381

All months, 1982 .............. .75000 .91666 .77459 .82572 .77592 .81509

Unemployment rate(unrounded), total c iv iLian

All years, all months, 1977-82 ..

All months, 1977 .

All months, 1978 .

All months, 1979 .

All months, 1980 .

All months, 1981 .

All months, 1982 .

All years, all months, 1977-82 ..

All months, 1977 .

All months, 1978 .

All months, 1979 .

All months, 1980 .

All months, 1981 .

All months, 1982 .

0.82778

1.20660

.85547

.88638

.98327

.70580

.51216

0.78107 0.83825 0.78492 0.87569

.92837 1.21094 1.16975 1 .24081

.90113 .95646 .82277 .95606

.81008 .82227 .77035 .82406

.78604 .92225 .69342 .94929

.72673 .76437 .79405 .78090

.60651 .56587 .62499 .58862

Civilian labor force, total

0.72562 0.89810 0.72563 0.89859

.55993 .58422 .51281 .58592

1 .14358 1.37796 1 .28066 1.37814

.82987 .91571 .87389 .91743

.70404 .89662 .68253 .89678

.60585 .99181 .63121 .99402

.71103 .74113 .72192 .74022

0.79952

1.21256

.81003

.77505

.70956

.80008

.64635

0.94087

.58129

1 .29402

.92300

.95275

1.18470

.76004

0.72891

.51331

1.28179

.87458

.68255

.63786

.71954
- 50 -

Table 4.

Ratios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

seasonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and year, 1977-1982-Cont;nued

I Average I Root mean I Root mean I Root mean

I Average absolute I Root mean square I square I square

I absolute I revision of I square I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

I I I I I I change

I

I Unemployment, total

I

All years, all months, 1977-82 ..I 0.80050 0.76904 0.80825 0.76626 0.85591 0.79504

All months, 1977 .............. 1 .22707 .96834 1 .20762 1.16375 1.23604 1.20915

All months, 1978 .............. .87325 .91263 .95038 .83635 .95057 .82546

All months, 1979 .............. .88444 .80634 .83955 .78874 .84218 .79343

All months, 1980 .............. .93790 .79248 .88089 .68477 .91009 .70395

All months, 1981 .............. .65257 .70488 .73943 .77789 .74871 .78559

All months, 1982 .............. .51846 .57415 .53321 .60227 .55788 .62679

Employment, total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.95040 0.77012 1 .01267 0.78143 1.01217 0.78188

All months, 1977 .............. .91641 .70665 .90124 .80940 .90438 .81187

All months, 1978 .............. I 1.04528 .77726 1 .24383 .81303 1.24248 .81242

All months, 1979 .............. I .63878 .70997 .72706 .71915 .72605 .71981

All months, 1980 .............. I 1 .24683 .93433 1 .25867 .74345 1.26056 .74142

All months, 1981 .............. 1.07934 .69457 1 .04479 .74042 1.04461 .74133

All months, 1982 .............. .74176 .82434 .82136 .92958 .82113 .92546

Nonagr;cultural employment, total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 1.02134 0.79645 1.04410 0.80411 1 .04323 0.80376

All months, 1977 .............. .92044 .72169 .88928 .77947 .88852 .78237

All months, 1978 .............. 1.46214 1.16528 1 .52099 1.08131 1.51613 1 .07786

All months, 1979 .............. .64626 .56866 .74261 .67414 .74169 .67407

All months, 1980 .............. 1 .36071 .91495 1 .27285 .77296 1.27480 .77106

All months, 1981 .............. 1.11791 .78560 1.07135 .80257 1.07189 .80438

All months, 1982 .............. .82296 .85022 .87753 .96356 .87754 .96032
- 51 -

rable 4.

Ratios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

seasonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and month, 1977-1982

I I

I Average Root mean I Root mean I Root mean

Average I absolute Root mean square I square I square

absolute I revision of I squal'e· I revision of I proportional I revision of

revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

monthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl pel'centage

I I I I I change

Unemployment rateCone deci mal), total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.88000 0.86765 0.92796 0.89753 0.96097 0.90994

January, all years ............ .75000 .88889 1.11804 .90749 1 .23275 1.00878

February, all years ........... 1 .00000 .66666 1 .00000 .81650 1 .00000 .74041

March, all years .............. .66667 1 .25000 .81650 1.11803 .79561 1 .13485

April, all years .............. .60000 .62500 .77460 .64550 .77495 .63123

May, all years ................ .77778 1 .33333 .82717 1 .09545 .88901 1.07611

June, all years ............... .80000 .91667 .89442 .94054 .83322 .95194

July, all years ............... 2.99998 .25000 1.73204 .50000 1.54655 .47667

August, all years ............. 1.33333 1 .50000 1.09545 1 .22474 1 .07969 1 .11242

September, all yeal's.......... .75000 .60000 1.11803 .77460 1.15363 .83288

October, all years .... " ...... .33333 .57143 .57735 .67937 .53731 .67695

November, all years ........... 2.99998 1 .00000 1.73204 1 .00000 1.94790 .94829

December, all years ........... .85714 1.16667 .81650 1 .04881 .91306 1.15187

Unemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.82778 0.78107 0.83825 0.78492 0.87569 0.79952

January, all years ............ .75853 .81902 .93143 .83756 .97284 .85176

February, all years ........... .93491 .94205 .96503 .89753 .95978 .88606

March, all years ...... ;....... .84459 1. 09573 .92811 1.06375 .91044 1.08004

April, all years .............. .56814 .63616 .57161 .63675 .65842 .66657

May, all years ................ .60429 .65055 .66838 .69590 .74487 .71795

June, all years ............... .86645 .73154 .83921 .74481 .79227 .78417

July, all years ............... 1.26713 .49801 1 .02086 .62024 .97165 .55984

August, all years ............. 1.18601 1 .27669 1.15009 1.14231 1 .14634 1 .22510

September, all years .......... 1.10072 .69884 1 .28455 .73441 1.32479 .70845

October, all years ............ .71520 .77955 .75467 .80345 .73879 .80366

November, all years ........... .64869 .88386 .79009 .84348 .87213 .93951

December, all years ........... .90131 .97452 .83630 1.04038 .93981 1 .12511
- 52 -

'able 4.

Ratios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

seasonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate serles and month, 1977-1982-Continued

I I I

I Average I Root mean I Root mean I Root mean

I Average absolute I Root mean square I square I squar'e

I absolute I revision of I square I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

I I I I I I change

Civilian labor force, total

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.94087 0.72562 0.89810 0.72563 I 0.89859

I

January, all years ............ .78933 .83856 1.00484 .85455 I .99741

February, all years ........... .90526 .81676 .91030 .84895 I .91211

March, all years .............. .76405 1 .03965 .83020 1.09559 I .82570

April, all years .............. 1 .27890 .88675 1.27090 .89924 I 1 .28790

May, all years ................ .74180 .55280 .71789 .56232 I .72743

June, all years ....... ;....... 1.34827 .72750 1.24415 .74124 I 1.21642

July, all years ............... .91767 .64557 .92592 .68087 I .92411

August, all years ............. .94996 .60175 .94106 .81406 I .94115

September, all years .......... .99470 .57518 .94522 .58351 I .94186

October, all years ............ 1 .12196 .76618 .93846 .77941 ., .92879

November, all years ........... .92167 .68123 .92862 .70207 .90808

December, all years ........... 1.03108 .76058 .92535 .67549 I .90243

Unemployment, total

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.80050 0.76904 0.80825 0.76626 0.85591

January, all years ............ .66624 .82702 .92120 .84826 .96012

February, all years ........... .92325 .92336 .95257 .90558 .95259

March, all years .............. .75635 1.10508 .88818 1.05929 .87050

April, all years .............. .53301 .65520 .54824 .64500 .63012

May, all years ................ .58644 .58442 .61799 .64360 .72097

June, all years ...... ,..... " . .81731 .68946 .79259 .69648 .74802

July, all years ............... 1 .09076 .47993 .96944 .63016 .91385

August, all years ............. 1.19471 1.28598 1.16002 1.15603 1.15254

September, all years .......... 1 .07726 .73738 1.19663 .73612 1.28757

October, all years ............ .75036 .78240 .75750 .80148 .74508

November, all years ........... .63998 .81376 .76392 .76291 .85697

December, all years ........... I .96589 1.06589 .85970 1.09615 .97496

I

0.72891

.84267

.84913

1 .09791

.90568

.56865

.74991

.68533

.80457

.57931

.77857

.68461

.67514

0.79504

.85719

.88783

1 .09393

.67429

.69212

.77033

.58226

1 .23983

.72551

.80577

.89037

1.18841
- 53 -

able 4.

Ratios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

seasonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and month, 1977-1982-Continued

1 1 1

1 1 Average 1 Root mean Root mean 1 Root mean

1 Average 1 absolute Root mean 1 square square 1 square

1 absolute 1 revision of 1 square 1 revision of 1 proportional 1 revision of

1 revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

1 1 1 1 1 1 change

1

1 Employment, total civilian

1

All years, all months, 1977-82 ..1 0.95040 0.77012 1.01267 0.78143 1.01217 0.78188

1

January, all years ............ 1 .75867 .60487 1.11070 .57995 1 .10224 .57231

February, all years ........... 1 .77117 .78681 1 .00766 .63943 1.00593 .65919

March, all years .............. 1 .99358 1.17640 1 .08583 .91748 1 .07976 .89771

April, all years .............. 1 1.21581 .92956 1.05766 .89815 1. 05731 .90235

May, all years ................ 1 1 .25002 .73816 1.22155 .78603 1 .24722 .78260

June, all years ............... 1.14972 1 .08967 1.16943 1.10415 1.14648 1 .09843

July, all years ............... 1 .00466 .62554 .99927 .62610 1 .00084 .63010

August, all years ............. 1.03288 .78679 1.03899 .55501 1 .03885 .55028

September, all years .......... 1.13485 .50940 1.15038 .62805 1.14808 .63302

October, all years ............ .65337 .79313 .78266 .79130 .78911 .79130

November, all years ........... .91169 1 .07396 .99163 .95459 .99452 .90920

December, all years ........... .44594 .49684 .58781 .54738 .58507 .54937

Nonagricultural employment, total civilian

All years, all months, 1977-82 .. 1.02134 0.79645 1.04410 0.80411 1 .04323 0.80376

January, all years ............ .76063 .79173 1.05215 .69690 1.04710 .69477

February, all years ........... .82180 .88911 1 .04099 .88867 1 .03829 .90145

March, all years .............. 1.08612 .93453 1.16145 .90681 1.14866 .90644

April, all years .............. 1.21219 .88705 1.06753 .98329 1.04603 .97236

May, all years ................ 1.48203 .69355 1.27510 .76434 1.30519 .76279

June, all years ............... 1.19299 1 .24891 1.23525 1 .27443 1 .21257 1 .26135

July, all years ....... " ...... 1 1.04513 .63511 .96879 .63119 .97198 .63712

August, all years ............. 1 1 .06265 .46150 1 .06332 .46193 1 .06397 .46911

September, all years .......... 1 1 .22631 .73585 1.27405 .74746 1 .27116 .76071

October, all years ............ 1 .73593 .80005 .91008 .79471 .90377 .79496

November, all years ........... 1 1 .23842 1 .11157 1.14284 .94753 1.14756 .90854

December, all years ........... 1 .55328 .53656 .61112 .60804 .61114 .60528
- 1 -

~atios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

s8asonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and year, 1977-1982

Average I I Root mean Root mean I Root mean

Average absolute I Root mean I square square I square

absolute I revision of I square I revision of I proportional I revision of

revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

monthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl pel'centage

I I I I I change

Unemployment rateCone decimal) , total c iv iLian

X12 years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.88000 0.86765 0.92796 0.89753 0.96097

/,ll months, 1977 .............. 1 .00000 1.14285 1 .22474 1.51185 1 .21472

!dl months, 1978 .............. .83333 1.00000 .93541 .88852 .94071

hl1 months, 1979 .............. 1 .00000 .90000 1 .00000 .88641 1.00000

1.11 months, 1980 .............. I 1.08333 .66667 .97468 .78019 1.00436

!.l1 l1onths, 1981 .............. .69231 .76923 .84515 .83406 .86709

1-.11 l1onths, 1982 .............. .75000 .91666 .77459 .82572 .77592

Unemployment rateCunrounded), total civilian

/1,11 years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.82778 0.78107 0.83825 0.78492 0.87569

t.ll months, 1977 .............. 1.20660 .92837 1 .21094 1.16975 1.24081

t,ll l1onths, 1978 .............. .85547 .90113 .95646 .82277 .95606

HI months, 1979 .............. .88638 .81008 .82227 .77035 .82406

1.11 morrt h.s, 1980 .............. .98327 .78604 .92225 .69342 .94929

All months, 1981 .............. .70580 .72673 .76437 .79405 .78090

t\ll months, 1982 .............. .51216 .60651 .56587 .62499 .58862

0.90994

1 .52938

.89503

.88838

.81139

.84381

.81509

0.79952

1 .21256

.81003

.77505

.70956

.80008

.64635

Civilian labor force, total

,

y:: ars, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.94087 0.72562 0.89810 0.72563 0.89859

11 months, 1977 .............. .58129 .55993 .58422 .51281 .58592

11. months, 1978 .............. 1.29402 1.14358 1.37796 1.28066 1.37814

U1. months, 1979 .............. .92300 .82987 .91571 .87389 .91743 ,.11. months, 1980 .............. .95275 .70404 .89662 .68253 .89678

f.. 1 1 ::lonths,1981 .............. 1.18470 .60585 .99181 .63121 .99402

1.11 months, 1982 .............. .76004 .71103 .74113 .72192 .74022

~; ':.: CJ fa c t ne t e s at end of table.

0.72891

.51331

1.28179

.87458

.68255

.63786

.71954
- 2 -

2a~io= of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

522sonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and year, 1977-1982-Continued

I I Average I Root mean Root mean I Root mean

I Average I absolute Root mean I square square I square

I absolute I revision of I square I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

I I I I I I change

Unemployment, total

r;II years, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.80050 0.76904 0.80825 0.76626 0.85591 0.79504

lUI months, 1977 .............. 1 .22707 .96834 1.20762 1 .16375 1.23604 1.20915

iUI months, 1978 .............. .87325 .91263 .95038 .83635 .95057 .82546

idl months, 1979 .............. .88444 .80634 .83955 .78874 .84218 .79343

;UI months, 1980 .............. .93790 .79248 .88089 .68477 .91009 .70395

iUI months, 1981 .............. .65257 .70488 .73943 .77789 .74871 .78559

1\11 months, 1982 .............. .51846 .57415 .53321 .60227 .55788 .62679

Employment, total c iv iiian

All YEars, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.95040 0.77012 1.01267 0.78143 1.01217 0.78188

/\11 months, 1977 .............. .91641 .70665 .90124 .80940 .90438 .81187

r~ll months, 1978 .....'......... 1.04528 .77726 1 .24383 .81303 1 .24248 .81242

[\l1 months, 1979 .............. .63878 .70997 .72706 .71915 .72605 .71981

1\11 months, 1980 .............. 1.24683 .93433 1 .25867 .74345 1.26056 .74142

ldl months, 1981 .............. 1.07934 .69457 1 .04479 .74042 1.04461 .74133

z i z months, 1982 .............. .74176 .82434 .82136 .92958 .82113 .92546

Nonagricultural employment, total civilian

r~II year's, all months, 1977-82 .. 1 .02134 0.79645 1.04410 0.80411 1.04323 0.80376

All months, 1977 .............. .92044 .72169 .88928 .77947 .88852 .78237

1\11 months, 1978 .............. 1.46214 1.16528 1.52099 1.08131 1.51613 1.07786

fIll. months, 1979 .............. .64626 .56866 .74261 .67414 .74169 .67407

fdl months, 1980 .............. 1.36071 .91495 1.27285 .77296 1 .27480 .77106

Idl months, 1981 .............. 1.11791 .78560 1 .07135 .80257 1.07189 .80438

!ill months, 1982 .............. .82296 .85022 .87753 .96356 .87754 .96032
- 1 -

'r ~f concurrent to projected for s~x compar~son stat~stics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

., SCi ~l adjustment of major labor force ser~es, by major aggregate series and month, 1977-1982

..----..--------------,.--------,..--------r--------r----------,..---------r--------

, , Average , Root mean Root mean , Root mean

, Average , absolute Root mean , square square , square

I absolute , rev~sion of , square , revision of , proportional , rev~s10n of

, rev~sion of ,month-to-month' rev~s~on of 'month-to-month' rev~s~on of 'month-to-month

Imonthly levels' changes 'monthly levels' changes 'monthly levels' percentage

, , I

, , , change

..-.-.---------------t------_-'- '-- -l.... -''- -l....__ -----

s: 1 y,?·ars,all months, 1977-82 .. 0.82778 0.78107 0.83825 0.78492 0.87569

.JanL}'wy,all years ............ .75853 .81902 .93143 .83756 .97284

Feb:~Jal-y, all years .......... , .93491 .94205 .96503 .89753 .95978

r<arc;', all years .............. .84459 1.09573 .92811 1.06375 .91044

/.pril, all years .. '" ......... .56814 .63616 .57161 .63675 .65842

I':ay 1 all years ................ .60429 .65055 .66838 .69590 .74487

.)un"~!, all years ............... .86645 .73154 .83921 .74481 .79227

Jul'/, all years ............... 1 .26713 .49801 1.02086 .62024 .97165

f,usr_l st, all years ............. 1.18601 1.27669 1.15009 1.14231 1.14634

Sep t. amb or- I all years .......... 1.10072 .69884 1.28455 .73441 1.32479

Cc t oo ar- I all years ......... ,.. .71520 .77955 .75467 .80345 .73879

l.ov onb er- I all years ........... .64869 .88386 .79009 .84348 .87213

Dece:nber, all years ........... .90131 .97452 .83630 1.04038 .93981

SQ(;:: f'oo tnote.s at end of table.

y ars, all months, 1977-82 ..

~an~arYl all years .

Feb-JarYI all years '"

i'ar ::1, all years .

i.PI- iI, all years .

,"ay, all years .

,une, all years .

~ul,/, all years .

st, all years .

September, all years .

Oct,):>er,all years .

I'ov,'ynber,all year-s .

Lec':,nber,all years .

0.88000

.75000

1.00000

.66667

.60000

.77778

.80000

2.99998

1.33333

.75000

.33333

2.99998

.85714

Unemployment rate(one decimal) , total civ iIian

0.86765 0.92796 0.89753 0.96097

.88889 1.11804 .90749 1 .23275

.66666 1.00000 .81650 1.00000

1 .25000 .81650 1.11803 .79561

.62500 .77460 .64550 .77495

1.33333 .82717 1.09545 .88901

.91667 .89442 .94054 .83322

.25000 1.73204 .50000 1.54655

1.50000 1 .09545 1 .22474 1 .07969

.60000 1.11803 .77460 1.15363

.57143 .57735 .67937 .53731

1.00000 1.73204 1 .00000 1.94790

1.16667 .81650 1.04881 .91306

Unemployment rate(unrounded), total c iv ilian

0.90994

1.00878

.74041

1 .13485

.63123

1.07611

.95194

.47667

1 .11242

.83238

.67695

.94829

1.15187

0.79952

.85176

.88606

1.08004

.66657

.71795

.78417

.55984

1.22510

.70845

.80366

.93951

1.12511
- 2 -

~0tios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

>'",,3(1'lal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and month, 1977-1982-Continued

"-'-'----------------,...--------r---------r--------,.---------.---------,--------

I Average , Root mean I Root mean , Root mean

, Average absolute I Root mean square

, square , square

I absolute , revision of I square I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levels' changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl percentage

I I I I I I change

,,----------------------t---------'---------'-----------''----------'" .....l... _

" y ars, all months, 1977-82 ..

en, ary , all years .

'c'?t: 'Ll'li'y,;::11 years .

'.3!~:'"J, all years .

1, all years .

/.:all yc.ars .

ur, , all years .

'J ,all years .

'J~; st, all years .

.~ 2~ber, all years .

Ie,:: 0"2r, all years .

;'J'''ii:)'''-, .::11 years .

Jcs mber, 211 years .

y ars, all months, 1977-82 ..

'.311' ;:,"Y, all years .

-",?b 'U::ll'y,211 years .

:';JI':::l, all years .

i,?i"' I, all years .

:.3,/. all y€ars .

,June:, all years .

.:u '/, all years .

,.u~),.st, all years .

:~G'r).'~c:,::lber,all years .

October, all years .

l!ov:~:11ber', ;::11 years .

Jecember, all years .

3~Q footnotes at end of table.

0.94087

.78933

.90526

.76405

1 .27890

.74180

1 .34827

.91767

.94996

.99470

1 .12196

.92167

1.03108

ct vi 11an labor force, total

0.72562 0.89810 0.72563 0.89859 0.72891

.83856 1.00484 .85455 .99741 .84267

.81676 .91030 .84895 .91211 .84913

1.03965 .83020 1.09559 .82570 1 .09791

.88675 1.27090 .89924 1 .28790 .90568

.55280 .71789 .56232 .72743 .56865

.72750 1.24415 .74124 1.21642 .74991

.64557 .92592 .68087 .92411 .68533

.60175 .94106 .81406 .94115 .80457

.57518 .94522 .58351 .94186 .57931

.76618 .93846 .77941 .92879 .77857

.68123 .92862 .70207 .90808 .68461

.76058 .92535 .67549 .90243 .67514

Unemployment, total

0.76904 0.80825 0.76626 0.85591 0.79504

.82702 .92120 .84826 .96012 .85719

.92336 .95257 .90558 .95259 .88783

1 .10508 .88818 1 .05929 .87050 1 .09393

.65520 .54824 .64500 .63012 .67429

.58442 .61799 .64360 .72097 .69212

.68946 .79259 .69648 .74802 .77033

.47993 .96944 .63016 .91385 .58226

1 .28598 1.16002 1 .15603 1.15254 1.23983

.73738 1.19663 .73612 1.28757 .72551

.78240 .75750 .80148 .74508 .80577

.81376 .76392 .76291 .85697 .89037

1.06589 .85970 1.09615 .97496 1.18841

0.80050

.66624

.92325

.75635

.53301

.58644

.81731

1 .09076

1.19471

1.07726

.75036

.63998

.96589
- 3 -

~~tios of concurrent to projected for six comparison statistics for evaluating concurrent versus 6-month-projected-factor

593sonal adjustment of major labor force series, by major aggregate series and month, 1977-1982-Continued

I Average I Root mean I Root mean I Root mean

I Average absolute I Root mean square I square I square

I absolute I revision of I squal~e I revision of I proportional I revision of

I revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-monthl revision of Imonth-to-month

Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl changes Imonthly levelsl pel~centage

I I I I I I change

Employment, total civilian

•• 1. J. ye_ar's, all months, 1977-82 .. 0.95040 0.77012 1.01267 0.78143 1.01217 0.78188

JanLary, all years ............ .75867 .60487 1.11070 .57995 1 .10224 .57231

~ebr uary, elll years ........... .77117 .78681 1.00766 .63943 1.00593 .65919

;·:.31·~-: 11, all years .............. .99358 1.17640 1.08583 .91748 1.07976 .89771

,\pr-; 1, all years .............. 1.21581 .92956 1.05766 .89815 1.05731 .90235

':0'/ " all y€,ars................ 1.25002 .73816 1.22155 .78603 1 .24722 .78260

Jun r all years ............... 1.14972 1.08967 1.16943 1.10415 1 .14648 1.09843

Ju~ , all years ............... 1.00466 .62554 .99927 .62610 1.00084 .63010

,",uS '. s t 1 a11 years ............. 1.03288 .78679 1 .03899 .55501 1.03885 .55028

ember, all years .......... 1.13485 .50940 1.15038 .62805 1.14808 .63302

Jc -;b'2r, all years ............ .65337 .79313 .78266 .79130 .78911 .79130

(;0'1 mber, <:.11 years ........... .91169 1.07396 .99163 .95459 .99452 .90920

J'2C ~lbe!~, i,11 yeal~s........... .44594 .49684 .58781 .54738 .58507 .54937

Nonagrica..ltural employment, total civilian

1.1 'j >:ar's, all months, 1977-82 .. 1.02134 0.79645 1.04410 0.80411 1.04323 0.80376

J 2:-.:_ 21-Y, all years ............ .76063 .79173 1.05215 .69690 1.04710 .69477

:-c::;- uar"y, <;11 years ........... .82180 .88911 1.04099 .88867 1.03829 .90145

':2;'"' h, all years .............. 1.08612 .93453 1.16145 .90681 1 .14866 .90644

- ,

i ..!.. , all years .............. 1.21219 .88705 1.06753 .98329 1 .04603 .97236

I' 211 y{.·ars................ 1.48203 .69355 1 .27510 .76434 1.30519 .76279

L , all years ............... 1 .19299 1.24891 1.23525 1.27443 1 .21257 1.26135

' .. -;

.; L.~. ) , all years ............... 1 .04513 .63511 .96879 .63119 .97198 .63712

. L: st, all. year-s............. 1 .06265 .46150 1.06332 .46193 1 .06397 .46911

ember, all years .......... 1 .22631 .73585 1 .27405 .74746 1.27116 .76071

._c b(~l'" , a 1 years ............ .73593 .80005 .91008 .79471 .90377 .79496

,,,-. <' t~iC:0r, 11 years ........... 1.23842 1.11157 1.14284 .94753 1.14756 .90854

/~ t~.:J8r~, 11 years ......... ,. .55328 .53656 .61112 .60804 .61114 .60528