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CES National Benchmark Article (HTML) 

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate 

March 2021 Benchmarks 

Authors: Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite

About the authors: 

Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite are economists in the Division of Current Employment 

Statistics–National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. 

Telephone: (202) 691-6555

Email: Contact CES 
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Table of Contents

Summary of the revisions........................................................................................................3

Overview................................................................................................................................4

Seasonally adjusted estimates...................................................................................................4

Seasonal adjustment changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic............................................... 5

Seasonally adjusted revisions...............................................................................................5

Not seasonally adjusted estimates.............................................................................................6

Not seasonally adjusted revisions.........................................................................................6

Benchmark revision effects for other data types.................................................................. 10

Net birth-death revisions........................................................................................................14

Net birth-death changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic..................................................... 14

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death...................................................................................18

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period................................................... 18

Changes to the CES published series......................................................................................20

Series changes due to annual sample review....................................................................... 20

Availability of revised data....................................................................................................25

Table of figures.....................................................................................................................26

Tables...............................................................................................................................26

Exhibits.............................................................................................................................26
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Summary of the revisions 

With the release of January 2022 data on February 4, 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 

introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. 

The March 2021 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm 

employment is 144,431,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 

143,308,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2021, total 

nonfarm employment had a revision of 374,000, or 0.3 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total 

nonfarm employment estimate was revised by -7,000, or less than 0.05 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for 

January 2021 through December 2021. The revised data for April 2021 forward incorporate the 

effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment

level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. 

Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts.

For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES 

Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b. 

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total 

nonfarm employment, January to December 2021 (in thousands)

2021

Levels Over-the-month Changes

As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Difference As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Difference

January 143,017 142,736 281 520 233 287

February 143,727 143,272 455 710 536 174

March 144,431 144,057 374 704 785 -81

April 144,694 144,326 368 263 269 -6

May 145,141 144,940 201 447 614 -167

June 145,698 145,902 -204 557 962 -405

July 146,387 146,993 -606 689 1,091 -402

August 146,904 147,476 -572 517 483 34

September 147,328 147,855 -527 424 379 45

October 148,005 148,503 -498 677 648 29

November 148,652 148,752 -100 647 249 398

December(p) 149,162 148,951 211 510 199 311

Footnotes

(p) Preliminary

To Table of Figures
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Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the 

survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees 

covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to 

report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. 

The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are 

tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) 

program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry 

Classification System (NAICS). About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope 

of the establishment survey is covered by UI and is available to the CES program via QCEW 

records.

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily 

records from the Railroad Retirement Board and Census Bureau data from County Business 

Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to 

as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make 

up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the 

March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and 

the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the 

establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often 

regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark 

revision—as is the case for this year’s benchmark revision. However, in years with historical 

reconstructions, affectedCES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark 

revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly 

reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two 

independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and 

historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for 

the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are 

adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation 

error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the 

March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived overthe-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birthdeath model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More 

information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the 

CES Technical Notes and in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, “Benchmarking the 

Current Employment Statistics National Estimates.”

Seasonally adjusted estimates

BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and 

directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their 
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revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. Details about seasonal 

adjustment during the 2021 benchmark are described below.

Seasonal adjustment changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic 

Selecting outliers, or any data points that fall outside of the normal monthly values, is a standard 

part of seasonally adjusting any time series. Until the 2021 benchmark, BLS included only point 

outliers in its annual seasonal adjustment processing. With the 2021 benchmark, BLS decided to 

use additional types of outliers to better account for seasonal patterns without removing the 

effect of the COVID-19 pandemic. For more information about the changes to CES seasonal 

adjustment outlier selection, see the Recent Outliers section of the CES Technical Notes. 

For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the 

Seasonal Adjustmentsection of the CES Technical Notes. 

For information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see 

the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.

Seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2021 by 

major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is 374,000. 

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 

2021 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title As Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 144,431 144,057 374 0.3

05-000000 Total private 122,572 122,515 57 (1)

06-000000 Goods-producing 20,227 20,360 -133 -0.7

07-000000 Service-providing 124,204 123,697 507 0.4

08-000000 Private service-providing 102,345 102,155 190 0.2

10-000000 Mining and logging 551 613 -62 -11.3

20-000000 Construction 7,408 7,448 -40 -0.5

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,268 12,299 -31 -0.3

31-000000 Durable goods 7,626 7,636 -10 -0.1

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,642 4,663 -21 -0.5

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,503 27,186 317 1.2

41-420000(2) Wholesale trade 5,635.5 5,658.0 -22.5 -0.4

42-000000(2) Retail trade 15,328.6 15,234.6 94.0 0.6

43-000000(2) Transportation and warehousing 5,995.8 5,753.1 242.7 4

44-220000(2) Utilities 542.7 539.8 2.9 0.5

50-000000 Information 2,768 2,683 85 3.1

55-000000 Financial activities 8,733 8,787 -54 -0.6
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CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title As Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Differences

Amount Percent

60-000000 Professional and business services 21,021 20.807 214 1

65-000000 Education and health services 23,541 23,396 145 0.6

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 13,423 13,757 -334 -2.5

80-000000 Other services 5,356 5,539 -183 -3.4

90-000000 Government 21,859 21,542 317 1.5

Footnotes 

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

(2) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities. 

To Table of Figures

Not seasonally adjusted estimates

Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been 

seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not 

seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, 

prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described 

below.

Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2021, not seasonally adjusted, by major 

industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is -7,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors,

March 2021 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 143,308 143,315 -7 (1)

05-000000 Total private 121,165 121,421 -256 -0.2

06-000000 Goods-producing 19,934 20,080 -146 -0.7

07-000000 Service-providing 123,374 123,235 139 -0.1

08-000000 Private service-providing 101,231 101,341 -110 -0.1

10-000000 Mining and logging 547 610 -63 -11.5

20-000000 Construction 7,162 7,203 -41 -0.6

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,225 12,267 -42 -0.3

31-000000 Durable goods 7,609 7,630 -21 -0.3

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,616 4,637 -21 -0.5

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,204 26,897 307 1.1

41-420000 Wholesale trade 5,609.3 5,632.9 -23.6 -0.4

42-000000 Retail trade 15,099.1 15,041.2 57.9 0.4

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 5,953.7 5,683.6 270.1 4.5

44-220000 Utilities 542.1 539.3 2.8 0.5

50-000000 Information 2,759 2,675 84 3.0

55-000000 Financial activities 8,686 8,750 -64 -0.7
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CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate

Differences

Amount Percent

60-000000 Professional and business services 20,767 20,549 218 1.0

65-000000 Education and health services 23,643 23,518 125 0.5

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 12,876 13,448 -572 -4.4

80-000000 Other services 5,296 5,504 -208 -3.9

90-000000 Government 22,143 21,894 249 1.1

Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables page.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and 

level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total 

nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of -0.3 percent to 0.3

percent. 

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking 

procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
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Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2011

to 2021 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Type 2011(1) 2012 2013(2) 2014 2015(3) 2016 2017(4) 2018(5) 2019(6) 2020 2021

00-000000 Total nonfarm Percent 0.1 0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7)

Level 162 424 -119 67 -172 -81 135 -16 -489 -121 -7

05-000000 Total private Percent 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2

Level 134 481 -126 105 -232 -151 133 -104 -505 -184 -256

10-000000 Mining and logging Percent -0.4 1.6 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4 -11.5

Level -3 13 -10 -16 -19 -22 -30 -8 -15 -27 -63

20-000000 Construction Percent -0.5 1.8 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.1 (7) -0.6

Level -26 93 14 90 39 47 52 44 -4 2 -41

30-000000 Manufacturing Percent 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 (7) -0.6 -0.3

Level 9 -25 23 43 -12 58 15 -18 -4 -75 -42

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and 

utilities

Percent 0.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1

Level 95 145 -131 -31 -5 -110 75 -77 -117 24 307

41-420000(8) Wholesale trade Percent -0.2 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4

Level -13.1 45.3 -20.2 -45.4 -41.3 -66.6 -21.2 -54.4 -38.6 -48 -23.6

42-000000(8) Retail trade Percent 0.6 0.5 -0.8 (7) -0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1 -0.5 0.4

Level 83.8 78.9 -110.3 5.5 -23.5 -118.2 15.4 -96.4 -150.8 -78.3 57.9

43-000000(8) Transportation and 

warehousing

Percent 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 4.5

Level 22.4 29.4 3.6 9.7 65.3 83.5 79.8 72.7 75.8 148.9 270.1

44-220000(8) Utilities Percent 0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.5

Level 2.8 -8.5 -4.6 -0.6 -4.7 -8.7 1 1.8 -4.1 1.1 2.8

50-000000 Information Percent -0.4 1.8 -0.2 2.4 -1.6 -0.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 3

Level -12 47 -5 66 -44 -2 70 59 35 14 84

55-000000 Financial activities Percent 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 (7) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.7

Level 69 45 -10 19 -9 -4 7 -12 68 25 -64

60-000000 Professional and business 

services

Percent 0.7 (7) (7) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 1

Level 125 2 4 -147 -110 -125 -270 -72 -159 -123 218

65-000000 Education and health services Percent -0.5 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 (7) -0.4 -0.2 0.5

Level -108 -2 -61 -16 -7 -83 70 5 -95 -47 125

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality Percent 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 (7) -1.1 0.2 -4.4

Level 93 104 72 38 -45 102 126 -4 -170 31 -572

80-000000 Other services Percent -2 1.1 -0.4 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -3.9

Level -108 59 -22 59 -20 -12 18 -21 -44 -8 -208

90-000000 Government Percent 0.1 -0.3 (7) -0.2 0.3 0.3 (7) 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1

Level 28 -57 7 -38 60 70 2 88 16 63 249
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Footnotes

(1) A review of industries for the possible presence of noncovered employment yielded 13 additional industries. As a

result of including these industries, employment in the amount of 95,000 was added to the benchmark nonfarm 

level. For more information, see the Changes to noncovered employment section in the 2011 CES Benchmark

Article. (2) With the 2013 benchmark, BLSreconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the 

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent 

of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry

assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, 

one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), andthe other, a reclassification of approximately

466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the 

elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact,

beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more 

information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the Special

notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article. (3) With the 2015 benchmark, BLSreconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly

and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. BLSpreviously reconstructed this series with the 2013 

benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment 

within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in

total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 

estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is 

−199,000 or −0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from 

the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the education and health services supersector, this table displays March 

2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in

the 2015 CES Benchmark Article. (4) With the 2017 benchmark, BLSreconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and 

patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the 

reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the 

originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally

published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after 

accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business 

services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more

information, see the Reconstructions sectionin the 2017 CES Benchmark Article. (5) With the 2018 benchmark, BLSreconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the 

QCEW resulted in about 336,000 in employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moving into

other series within the wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business 

services major industry sectors. Affected basic series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to

January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 

17,000 in employment from the CES series other state government (90-922999) into services for the elderly and

persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic series were reconstructed from March 2018 back to January

2018. For more information, see theReconstructions section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article. (6) With the 2019 benchmark, BLSreconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an

error in rail transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000in employment being double counted. The 

reconstruction removed the doubled-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and 

including total nonfarm, back to January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally

published March 2019 estimate level is −505,000, or −0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after 

accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For more information, see the Reconstructions

section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article. (7) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. 

(8) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

 To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 10 of 

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Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and 

women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are 

revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) 

level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. 

These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary 

estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing 

industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated 

solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New 

employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more 

information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES 

Technical Notes.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated 

data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types

Data Type Abbreviation

All employees AE

Production and nonsupervisory employees PE

Women employees WE

Average weekly hours of all employees AE AWH

Average hourly earnings of all employees AE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of all employees AE AWOH

Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWH

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWOH

To Table of Figures

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. 

AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings 

estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may 

alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may 

change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for 

major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry 

group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have 

hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their 

broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry 

sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2021 benchmark. At the total private 
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level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and average weekly hours 

for PE increased by 0.1 hours from the previously published level. Total private average hourly 

earnings increased by 8 cents for AE and PE from the previously published level. 

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the 

CES detailed industry tables page. 
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Table 6. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings

estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 34.7 34.7 0.0 $29.95 $30.03 $0.08

06-000000 Goods-producing 40.1 40 -0.1 30.39 30.35 -0.04

08-000000 Private service-providing 33.6 33.7 0.1 29.85 29.95 0.10

10-000000 Mining and logging 45.1 45 -0.1 34.72 34.45 -0.27

20-000000 Construction 39 39 0.0 32.20 32.16 -0.04

30-000000 Manufacturing 40.4 40.4 0.0 29.12 29.12 0.00

31-000000 Durable goods 40.7 40.7 0.0 30.60 30.57 -0.03

32-000000 Nondurable goods 39.9 40 0.1 26.62 26.68 0.06

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 34.1 34.2 0.1 25.74 25.71 -0.03

41-420000 Wholesale trade 38.8 38.8 0.0 32.94 32.97 0.03

42-000000 Retail trade 30.4 30.3 -0.1 21.41 21.39 -0.02

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 38.8 38.8 0.0 25.64 25.57 -0.07

44-220000 Utilities 42.5 42.5 0.0 44.41 44.38 -0.03

50-000000 Information 36.7 36.7 0.0 43.72 43.83 0.11

55-000000 Financial activities 37.4 37.4 0.0 39.64 39.69 0.05

60-000000 Professional and business services 36.5 36.5 0.0 35.85 35.73 -0.12

65-000000 Education and health services 33.2 33.3 0.1 29.19 29.41 0.22

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 26.2 26.2 0.0 17.68 17.63 -0.05

80-000000 Other services 32.3 32.4 0.1 27.06 27.51 0.45

To Table of Figures
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Table 7. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee average weekly hours 

and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 34.1 34.2 0.1 $25.25 $25.33 $0.08

06-000000 Goods-producing 41 41 0.0 25.88 25.86 -0.02

08-000000 Private service-providing 33 33 0.0 25.12 25.22 0.10

10-000000 Mining and logging 46.7 46.5 -0.2 30.70 30.48 -0.22

20-000000 Construction 39.6 39.5 -0.1 29.69 29.67 -0.02

30-000000 Manufacturing 41.6 41.6 0.0 23.33 23.36 0.03

31-000000 Durable goods 41.9 41.9 0.0 24.34 24.36 0.02

32-000000 Nondurable goods 41.1 41.1 0.0 21.72 21.77 0.05

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 34.2 34.2 0.0 21.74 21.72 -0.02

41-420000 Wholesale trade 38.6 38.6 0.0 27.10 27.10 0.00

42-000000 Retail trade 30.8 30.7 -0.1 17.98 17.98 0.00

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 38.4 38.4 0.0 22.92 22.83 -0.09

44-220000 Utilities 42.6 42.6 0.0 39.92 39.90 -0.02

50-000000 Information 36 35.9 -0.1 36.61 36.70 0.09

55-000000 Financial activities 37 37 0.0 30.06 30.06 0.00

60-000000 Professional and business services 36 36 0.0 29.97 29.88 -0.09

65-000000 Education and health services 32.5 32.5 0.0 26.21 26.41 0.20

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 24.8 24.8 0.0 15.34 15.30 -0.04

80-000000 Other services 31.3 31.5 0.2 23.13 23.59 0.46

To Table of Figures
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Net birth-death revisions

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various 

sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both are subject to nonresponse 

and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business 

birth and death modeling error. 

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level 

because each month new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through 

the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its 

appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. 

These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only 

become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. 

After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and 

soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In 

practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at 

least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment 

from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The 

research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production 

timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model 

incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. 

The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series 

model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation 

from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the 

Birth-Death Modelsection of the CES Technical Notes. 

An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation 

follows.

Net birth-death changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic 

Current estimates of not seasonally adjusted employment include both a sample-based

component and a model-based component. The model-based portion, called the net birth-death 

forecast, is intended to account for businesses that have closed or opened since the sample was 

initially drawn. While this model performs well in times of relative stability, it has not 

traditionally included a mechanism to account for rapid changes in the most recent months of 

employment estimates. 

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created a severe economic shock to the global 

economy, resulting in massive job losses across the United States. This widespread disruption to 

labor markets and the potential impact to the birth-death model prompted BLS to revisit research 

conducted after the Great Recession (2007-09) and incorporate new ideas to account for changes 

in the number of business openings and closings. Two areas of research were implemented to 

improve the accuracy of the birth-death model in the CES estimates. These adjustments better 

reflect the net effect of the contribution of business births and deaths to the estimates. These two 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 15 of 26

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methodological changes, one to adjust each of the two steps in the birth-death model, are the 

following:

• A portion of both reported zero employment and returns from zero in the current

month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that

business births and deaths do not offset.

• Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to

better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.

First, a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero 

employment in each month were used to adjust the weighted contribution of each report used in 

the calculation of the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports 

with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To 

account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment and reports returning from 

zero employment, BLS calculated the likelihood that either a reported zero or a return from zero 

exceeded what would be expected for the month. These "excess declines to zero" and "excess 

returns from zero" (collectively called excess reported zeroes) partially account for drops in 

employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data 

occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More 

specifically, "excess declines to zero" were used in March 2020 and subsequent months’ first 

preliminary, second preliminary, and final estimates through September 2021. "Excess returns 

from zero" were used in first, second, and final estimates from May 2020 to September 2021. 

Second, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for 

using sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally 

modeled using an ARIMA based on over-the-month changes of 5 years of historical birth-death 

residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only 

historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed 

due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included 

in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, 

known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector 

sample link was used as a regressor for the basic-level industry forecasts only within that sector

from April 2020 to September 2021. 

BLS did research on a monthly basis to determine when to return to normal estimation. BLS 

monitored responses to the CES survey for a reduction in rates of newly reported zeroes and 

returns from zero in the current month and the resumption of previous patterns in the net birthdeath forecasts. Effective with the release of October 2021 preliminary estimates, BLS

determined that adjustments to its birth-death methodology were no longer necessary. 

The use of sample links as regression variables in the model initially accounted for a difference 

of 33,000 in the net birth-death forecasts from January 2021 to September 2021, with a range 

from -24,000 to 39,000. Exhibit 1 below outlines monthly differences due to the inclusion of the 

sample link regressor.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 16 of 26

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Exhibit 1. Preliminary and revised net birth-death forecasts for total private with and without 

regressor adjustments, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

Month

Preliminary Forecast Revised Forecast

With 

Adjustment

Without 

Adjustment Difference

With 

Adjustment

Without 

Adjustment Difference

April 2020 -553 246 -799 -470 282 -752

May 345 207 138 319 203 116

June 295 73 222 235 68 167

July 241 193 48 254 211 43

August 154 104 50 142 95 47

September -62 -99 37 -64 -96 32

October 344 293 51 363 313 50

November 6 2 4 -1 0 -1

December 19 -56 75 18 -48 66

Total 2020 789 963 -174 796 1,028 -232

January 2021 -143 -143 0 (1) (1) (1)

February 131 135 -4 (1) (1) (1)

March 38 -1 39 (1) (1) (1)

April 298 277 21 309 270(2) 39(2)

May 218 242 -24 239 260(2) -21

(2)

June 76 95 -19 106 118

(2) -12(2)

July 224 225 -1 264 244

(2) 20(2)

August 142 135 7 146 134

(2) 12(2)

September -89 -103 14 -87 -96(2) 9(2)

Total 2021 895 862 33 977 930

(2) 47(2)

Footnotes

(1) Net birth-death forecasts are only revised in the post-benchmark period for months April to December.

(2) Corrected from original publication.

To Table of Figures

The effect of these adjustments to CES estimates of employment reflect the pronounced impact 

of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exhibit 2 illustrates the difference at the total private level between 

the published CES estimates that use these two adjustments and a simulated CES series 

calculated without using either adjustment. The total private benchmark revision amount applied 

to March 2021 was -256,000. Without these adjustments to the birth-death model, the total 

private employment would have been 898,000 greater, and the benchmark revision amount 

would have been -1,154,000. 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 17 of 26

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Exhibit 2. Effects of adjusted net birth-death and use of reported zeroes on total private 

employment before benchmarking, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

Month

Total Private 

Employment with 

Adjustments

Total Private 

Employment without 

Adjustments Difference

April 2020 108,032 111,396 -3,364

May 111,800 114,378 -2,578

June 117,267 118,889 -1,622

July 118,797 120,130 -1,333

August 119,704 120,927 -1,223

September 120,101 121,260 -1,159

October 121,581 122,659 -1,078

November 122,128 123,257 -1,129

December 121,802 122,877 -1,075

January 2021 119,527 120,591 -1,064

February 120,369 121,352 -983

March 121,421 122,319 -898

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 18 of 26

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Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by 

comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during 

the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2020 to March 2021 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual 

net birth-death from April 2020 to March 2021 was approximately 212,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for 

the same period. 

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2020 to March 2021

(in thousands)

Benchmark 2021 2020 2021

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Total

Actual Net BirthDeath -2,162 782 543 523 253 -27 585 10 -107 -85 230 65 610

Forecast Net 

Birth-Death -470 319 235 254 142 -64 363 -1 18 -143 131 38 822

Difference -1,692 463 308 269 111 37 222 11 -125 58 99 27 -212

Cumulative 

Difference -1,692 -1,229 -921 -652 -541 -504 -282 -271 -396 -338 -239 -212

To Table of Figures

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2021 to December 2021, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based 

primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate 

information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors 

over the post-benchmark period. From April 2021 to December 2021, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,331,000 jobs, 

compared with 1,195,000 in the previously published April 2021 to December 2021 employment estimates.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 19 of 26

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Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2021 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cumulative

Total

10-000000 Mining and logging 0 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 5

20-000000 Construction 30 31 23 16 19 4 27 -9 -17 124

30-000000 Manufacturing 1 10 3 2 7 1 9 4 1 38

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 21 33 19 23 19 10 51 17 8 201

41-420000(1) Wholesale trade 4 7 1 2 3 -4 14 2 0 29

42-000000(1) Retail trade 9 15 8 13 6 5 19 0 -1 74

43-000000(1) Transportation and warehousing 8 11 10 8 10 9 18 15 9 98

44-220000(1) Utilities 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

50-000000 Information 5 5 -1 7 3 0 11 3 1 34

55-000000 Financial activities 13 10 0 10 4 -8 32 1 7 69

60-000000 Professional and business services 97 26 -15 75 48 -20 135 9 -19 336

65-000000 Education and health services 40 20 -29 41 18 -13 76 14 -14 153

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 88 93 95 84 20 -56 17 -22 -3 316

80-000000 Other services 14 9 10 5 8 -5 20 0 -6 55

Total private net birth-death forecast 309 239 106 264 146 -87 379 17 -42 1,331

Footnotes

(1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

 To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 20 of 26

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Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2022 first preliminary estimates on February 4, 2022, BLS

incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

Series changes due to annual sample review

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The 

following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES 

industries, which are based on NAICS 2017. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to 

be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar 

industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the 

publication changes for the 2021 benchmark release page. 

A list of currently published CES series is available at the CES published series page. 

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes

NAICS 

Code

Previous New

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

3313,4 31-331300 Alumina and aluminum

production 31-331400

Other nonferrous metal 

production, including 

3313,4 31-331400 alumina and aluminum Other nonferrous metal 

production

To Table of Figures

In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more 

detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and nonAE data types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for

AE only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued 

series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer 

published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are 

published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient 

sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with 

other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series 

were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industriesthat are no longer published for

AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series. 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 21 of 26

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Table 11. Discontinued all employees series

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Next Highest Published Industry

322211 32-322211 Corrugated and solid fiber 

boxes Paperboard containers (32-322210)

322212,9 32-322219

Folding boxes and 

miscellaneous paperboard 

containers

Paperboard containers (32-322210)

To Table of Figures

Table 12. Collapsed all employees series

Previous New

NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code

CES Industry 

Title

NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

3313 31-331300

Alumina and 

aluminum 

production

3313,4 31-331400

Other nonferrous 

metal production, 

including alumina 

3314 31-331400 and aluminum

Other 

nonferrous 

metal 

production

33636 31-336360

Motor vehicle 

seating and 

interior trim 33634,6,9 31-336390 All other motor 

vehicle parts

33634,9 31-336390 All other motor 

vehicle parts

42492 41-424920 Books and 

periodicals

42492,4,5,9 41-424990 All other nondurable 

goods wholesalers 42494,5,9 41-424990

All other 

nondurable 

goods 

wholesalers

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 22 of 26

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Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees

NAICS Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From 

Publication

Next Highest 

Published Industry

212312 10-212312 Crushed and broken 

limestone mining

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Stone mining and 

quarrying (10-212310)

212311,3,9 10-212319 Other stone mining 

and quarrying

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Stone mining and 

quarrying (10-212310)

321911 31-321911 Wood windows and 

doors

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, AE 

AWOH, PE, PE 

AHE, PE AWH, 

WE

Millwork (31-321910)

321912,8 31-321918

Cut stock, resawing 

lumber, planning, and 

other millwork, 

including flooring

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, AE 

AWOH, PE, PE 

AHE, PE AWH, 

WE

Millwork (31-321910)

3324 31-332400 Boilers, tanks, and 

shipping containers PE AWOH

Fabricated metal 

products (31-332000)

33291 31-332910 Metal valves

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH, PE 

AWOH

Other fabricated metal 

products (31-332900)

33299 31-332990 All other fabricated 

metal products

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH, PE 

AWOH

Other fabricated metal 

products (31-332900)

3334 31-333400

HVAC and 

commercial 

refrigeration 

equipment

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Machinery (31-

333000)

3339 31-333900 Other general purpose 

machinery

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Machinery (31-

333000)

33392 31-333920 Material handling 

equipment AE AWOH Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

337121 31-337121 Upholstered 

household furniture

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Other household and 

institutional furniture 

(31-337120)

339113 31-339113 Surgical appliances 

and supplies

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Medical equipment and 

supplies (31-339100)

339116 31-339116 Dental laboratories AE AHE, AE 

AWH, WE

Medical equipment and 

supplies (31-339100)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 23 of 26

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NAICS Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From 

Publication

Next Highest 

Published Industry

3113 32-311300

Sugar and 

confectionery 

products

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Food manufacturing 

(32-311000)

3221 32-322100 Pulp, paper, and 

paperboard mills

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, WE

Paper and paper 

products (32-322000)

3222 32-322200 Converted paper 

products

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, WE

Paper and paper 

products (32-322000)

322211 32-322211 Corrugated and solid 

fiber boxes

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, AE 

AWOH, PE, PE 

AHE, PE AWH, 

PE AWOH, WE

Paperboard containers 

(32-322210)

324 32-324000 Petroleum and coal 

products

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH, PE 

AWOH

Nondurable goods (32-

000000)

32411 32-324110 Petroleum refineries WE Petroleum and coal 

products (32-324000)

32412,9 32-324190

Asphalt paving and 

roofing materials and 

other petroleum and 

coal products

WE Petroleum and coal 

products (32-324000)

3252 32-325200 Resin, rubber, and 

artificial fibers

AE AHE, AE 

AWH Chemicals (32-325000)

32611 32-326110

Plastics packaging 

materials, film, and 

sheet

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Plastics products (32-

326100)

312,6 32-329000

Miscellaneous 

nondurable goods 

manufacturing

AE AWOH, PE, 

PE AHE, PE 

AWH, PE 

AWOH

Nondurable goods (32-

000000)

443141 42-443141 Household appliance 

stores

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Electronics and 

appliance stores (42-

443000)

443142 42-443142 Electronics stores PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Electronics and 

appliance stores (42-

443000)

52221 55-522210 Credit card issuing WE

Nondepository credit 

intermediation (55-

522200)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 24 of 26

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NAICS Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From 

Publication

Next Highest 

Published Industry

52222 55-522220 Sales financing WE

Nondepository credit 

intermediation (55-

522200)

5322 55-532200 Consumer goods 

rental

AE AHE, AE 

AWH

Rental and leasing 

services (55-53200)

5323 55-532300 General rental centers AE AHE, AE 

AWH

Rental and leasing 

services (55-53200)

54186 60-541860

Direct mail 

advertising

AE AHE, AE 

AWH, WE

Advertising and related 

services (60-541800)

54192 60-541920 Photographic services PE, PE AHE, PE

AWH

Other professional and 

technical services (60-

541900)

54193,9 60-541990

Miscellaneous 

professional and 

technical services

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Other professional and 

technical services (60-

541900)

56174 60-561740 Carpet and upholstery

cleaning services

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Services to buildings 

and dwellings (60-

561700)

56179 60-561790

Other services to 

buildings and 

dwellings

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Services to buildings 

and dwelling (60-

561700)

5622 60-562200 Waste treatment and

disposal 

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Waste management 

and remediation 

services (60-562000)

5629 60-562900 Remediation and 

other waste services

PE, PE AHE, PE 

AWH

Waste management 

and remediation 

services (60-562000)

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 25 of 26

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Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings 

data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally 

adjusted data. The data can be accessed at the CES-National Database page. 

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted 

basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES 

vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark revision. 

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables page. 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 26 of 26

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Table of figures

Tables

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm 

employment, January to December 2021 (in thousands).................................................... 3

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2021 (in 

thousands).......................................................................................................................5

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 

2021 (in thousands)..........................................................................................................6

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates 

by industry supersector, March 2011 to 2021 (in thousands).............................................. 8

Table 5. Directly estimated data types....................................................................................10

Table 6. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and 

average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors................................................ 12

Table 7. Effect of March 2021 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee 

average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors........ 13

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, 

April 2020 to March 2021 (in thousands)........................................................................ 18

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2021 (in 

thousands).....................................................................................................................19

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes........................................................ 20

Table 11. Discontinued all employees series...........................................................................21

Table 12. Collapsed all employees series................................................................................21

Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees........................................................... 22

Exhibits

Exhibit 1. Preliminary and revised net birth-death forecasts for total private with and without 

regressor adjustments, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands).......................................... 16

Exhibit 2. Effects of adjusted net birth-death and use of reported zeroes on total private 

employment before benchmarking, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)....................... 17

Last Modified Date: May 6, 2022

Caitlin Patrick and Marcus Polite, Economists

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Division of Current Employment Statistics – National

PSB Suite 4175, 2 MassachusettsAvenue,NE Washington,DC 20212-0001

www.bls.gov/CES |Telephone: 1-202-691-6555 | Email: Contact CES