1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

COVID-19’s Effect on the Consumer 

Expenditure Surveys’ Estimates

Bryan Rigg and Brett Creech

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Consumer Expenditure Surveys

Federal Committee on Survey Methodology

November 3, 2021
2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Introduction

Adjustments to procedures

Response rates before and during the pandemic

Data quality impact

CE vs PCE Comparison

Expenditure Means

Relative Standard Error Impacts
3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Collection

 All in person interviews were done by telephone starting 

March 19th

 Web diary option was added

 Interview Survey collection instrument was updated to 

collect stimulus payment amounts issued as part of the 

2020 CARES act
4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Stimulus Payments

Question was added in June of 2020

Captured if they received a payment

What the payment was used for

– Increase spending

– Increase savings

–Pay off debt
5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Response Rates

In March of 2020, response rates began to drop

Diary had the more significant drop of 14% compared to 

Interview of 1%

Sample increase in January 2020 helped offset the total 

surveys collected

Diary increased from ~5000 to ~7500
6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Response Rates

 The U.S Census Bureau partnered with the Economic 

Reimbursable Surveys Division (ERD) to use their research 

contact frame to supplement the CE surveys. Beginning with 

April 2020, phone numbers from the ERD contact frame were 

included.

 The Diary sample increase as well as the ERD supplement 

helped support moderate gains in terms of sample size for both 

the Interview and Diary Surveys in quarters 3 and 4 of 2020. 
7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Response Rates

 Interview Survey response rate showed an increase of almost 10 

percentage points from July to September 2020. 

Response rates from September to December 2020 declined slightly, 

falling to 45.8 percent. 

 Diary Survey response rates showed a similar uptick in response 

from April to September 2020, with response rates then falling 

slightly to 33.9 percent.
8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Consumer Expenditure Surveys Monthly Estimation 

Response Rates (2019Q3 through 2020Q4 collection year)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020

Diary Interview
9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Comparison – CE vs PCE

 Interview and Diary Survey estimates from the 3rd quarter of 

2019 through the 4th quarter of 2020 were compared with the 

Personal Consumption Expenditures estimate for the same 

period

Year over year percent changes showed similar trends

From 1st quarter of 2020 through the 2nd quarter, CE showed a larger 

over year percent change decrease than PCE

 However, the percent changes for the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020 

showed similar trends
10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure aggregates, Consumer Expenditure Surveys and 

Personal Consumption Expenditures, 3rd quarter 2019 through 4th quarter 2020

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2 2019Q3-2020Q3 2019Q4-2020Q4

CE PCE
11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Comparison – CE vs PCE

 CE compared aggregates that corresponded well with PCE

Food and alcohol at home and away from home

 Percent change in aggregates for away from home food and 

alcohol expenditures in both the PCE and CE continued to show 

similar patterns, with CE continuing to show a more dramatic 

drop in spending
12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Comparisons – CE vs PCE

 In quarters 3 and 4 of 2020, year-over-year percent change 

figures for at home spending in the CE were more closely 

aligned with PCE than it was in quarter 2 of 2020 

 CE expenditures dropped more than PCE for food away from 

home and alcohol away from home
13 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure aggregates, Consumer 

Expenditure Surveys and Personal Consumption Expenditures, 3rd quarter 2019 through 

4th quarter 2020

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2 2019Q3-2020Q3 2019Q4-2020Q4

PCE - Food and nonalcoholic beverages purchased

for off-premises consumption

CE - Food at home

PCE - Meals and nonalcoholic beverages

CE - Food away from home

PCE - Alcoholic beverages purchased

for off-premises consumption

CE - Alcohol at home

PCE - Alcohol in purchased meals

CE - Alcohol away from home
14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Quality – Expenditure Mean Estimates

 2020 Annual News Release showed several notable changes in 

major expenditure categories

 Out of 14 major spending categories, only five showed an 

increase over the previous year’s estimate
15 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Year-over-year percent change in quarterly means, Consumer Expenditure 

Surveys, 3rd quarter 2019 through 4th quarter 2020

$0 $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000

 Transportation

 Food

 Apparel and services

 Entertainment

 Education

 Personal care products and services

 Alcoholic beverages

 Healthcare

 Tobacco products and smoking supplies

 Miscellaneous

 Reading

 Personal insurance and pensions

 Cash contributions

 Housing

2019 2020
16 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Quality – Expenditure Means Estimates

 Largest drops in the following categories:

Apparel and services

Personal care products and services

Alcoholic beverages

Food

 Food and alcoholic beverages declines were primarily associated 

with away from home purchases

Food away from home: approximately 33 percent decrease

Alcohol away from home: approximately 44 percent decrease
17 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Data Quality – Standard Errors

 CE looked at year-over-year change in variance for 2020 

compared to 2019

 Only two of the 14 major spending categories in 2020 had an 

increase in RSE (relative standard error) of greater than one 

percent

Education

Cash Contributions
18 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Year-over-year change in quarterly relative standard error, Consumer 

Expenditure Surveys, 3rd quarter 2019 through 4th quarter 2020

0.00% 1.00% 2.00% 3.00% 4.00% 5.00% 6.00% 7.00% 8.00% 9.00%

 Housing

 Personal insurance and pensions

 Healthcare

 Food

 Transportation

 Personal care products and services

 Tobacco products and smoking supplies

 Apparel and services

 Alcoholic beverages

 Miscellaneous

 Entertainment

 Reading

 Education

 Cash contributions

2020 2019
19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Summary

 Food and alcohol spending away from home dropped more in 

CE than in the PCE in 2020

 Nine major spending categories declined in 2020 

Drop in Apparel and services and Personal care products and services

Drop in Food and Alcoholic beverages were associated with away from 

home purchases

 RSE increased over one percent in two out of 14 major spending 

categories in 2020
20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Future Work

 The CE program will continue to analyze the impact of COVID-19 

on the CE data and its products including the public use 

microdata files and tables
Contact Information

21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Bryan Rigg

202-691-5495

Rigg.Bryan@bls.gov

Brett Creech

202-691-5120

Creech.Brett@bls.gov