The Impact of COVID-19 on CE Survey Estimates

May 5th, 2021

Scott Curtin 

Consumer Expenditure Surveys Program Report Series
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The Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) are the most detailed sources of expenditures, income, 

and demographics collected directly from consumers by the Federal government. As a result of the 

COVID-19 pandemic, The U.S. Census Bureau, which collects CE data on behalf of the Bureau of Labor 

Statistics, had to make adjustments to the way data were collected and processed. Beyond that, the CE 

program also had to implement adjustments to the survey questionnaire to accommodate new 

questions, allowing for a more accurate understanding of the changes in spending behavior caused by 

the pandemic. The pandemic continues to have ramifications not only for data that respondents 

provide, but also for the methods of obtaining it. In the year following the onset of the pandemic, the CE 

has continued to pursue obtaining high-quality data from its respondents in both the Quarterly 

Interview Survey (CEQ) and the Diary Survey (CED)

1

. However, both surveys encountered obstacles as a 

result of this pandemic. Starting on March 19, 2020, CE in-person data collection ceased for both the 

CEQ and the CED. CE adopted mitigation strategies for both the CEQ and CED to allow the continued 

collection of high-quality data while also taking into account the health and safety of respondents and 

field staff. With this in mind, all in-person interviews were transitioned to telephone interviews. 

Interviewers have since had the ability to collect information in this fashion, utilizing resources on the 

BLS CE Website to guide users through the interview process and provide additional details usually 

supplied during the in-person interview process. Specific to the CED, which usually requires respondents 

to transcribe their expenditures directly onto a daily diary form, interviewers were now transcribing 

diary entries onto a paper diary on the respondent's behalf. Also, as part of the CED, the CE program

added an option for respondents to utilize an online diary as an alternative to traditional in-person data 

collection and over-the-phone transcriptions.

As a means to account for stimulus payments as part of the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic 

Security Act (CARES), which was signed into law on March 27, 2020, the CE program updated the CEQ to 

allow the collection of these payment amounts from respondents. The CEQ will continue to collect 

information about stimulus payment amounts with the enactment of any additional legislation that

provides payments to US households and consumers2

. 

This report provides a brief overview of the observed changes in the CE data from the third quarter of 

2019 through the second quarter of 2020. The report highlights changes in quarterly expenditure 

aggregates, quarterly means, and quarterly measures of relative standard error (RSE). The report also 

offers a comparison of the quarterly CE aggregate estimates with quarterly aggregates from the Bureau 

of Economic Analysis’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) to gauge how well CE estimates track

with alternative sources of consumer spending data. The results found in this report provide some initial 

indication of the impact COVID-19 had on consumers during the onset of the pandemic. 

 

1 The Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) data are collected by the Census Bureau for Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in two 

surveys, the Quarterly Interview Survey (CEQ) for major or recurring items and the weekly Diary Survey (CED) for more minor or 

frequently purchased items. CE’s data are primarily used to revise the relative importance of goods and services for the 

Consumer Price Index market basket. The CE is the only federal household survey to provide information on the complete range 

of consumers' expenditures and incomes. 

2 Households and consumers in the CE are defined as consumer units (CU). A CU is made up of: (1) all members of a particular 

household who are related by blood, marriage, adoption, or other legal arrangements; (2) a person living alone or sharing a 

household with others or living as a roomer in a private home or lodging house or in permanent living quarters in a hotel or 

motel, but who is financially independent; or (3) two or more persons living together who use their income to make joint 

expenditure decisions. The sum of CE population weights are designed to equal the total population of CUs for that weight.
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Data Quality

Estimation response rates for the second half of 2019 remained relativity stable, with only slight 

declines within each survey3

. However, as seen in Chart 1 below, starting with the February data 

collection period, both surveys did experience a drop in response, with a much larger decrease 

associated with the CED. While the pandemic caused a larger drop in response rates in the CED, Chart 2 

shows that the CED drop in response was partially offset due to a larger sample, which was introduced 

in January 2020. 

As a means to assess the quality of CE data, integrated quarterly CEQ and CED estimates from the 3rd

quarter of 2019 through the 2nd quarter of 2020 were compared against those of the PCE for the same 

period. The PCE defines total consumption as the goods and services purchased by, or on behalf of, 

people living in the United States. While significant methodological differences exist between the CE and 

the PCE, year-over-year change between the two can be used to gauge how well the CE data is tracking 

against other indicators of consumer spending4. As seen in Chart 3A below, year-over-year percent

changes from the third quarter of 2019 through the second quarter of 2020 for both the CE and PCE 

show similar trends. Starting in the first quarter of 2020 and carrying through to the second, the CE did 

show a larger year-over-year percent change decrease than PCE. 

 

3 Estimation response rates are calculated based on the set of CUs that were included in the computation of mean expenditures 

and other estimated statistics produced on the CE website. These response rates will differ slightly from the response rates 

published on the household and establishment response rates webpage, which include CUs that responded, but do not meet 

the minimum threshold for inclusion in estimation.

4 The CE program collects data from CUs that represent the civilian, non-institutional population of the United States. PCE 

covers all persons resident in the United States, as well as non-profit institutions serving households.

0

20

40

60

July

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

June

July

Aug

Sep

2019 2020

Chart 1: Consumer Expenditure 

Surveys Monthly Estimation 

Response Rates

Diary Interview

0

2000

4000

6000

Quarter 3

2019

Quarter 4

2019

Quarter 1

2020

Quarter 2

2020

Quarter 3

2020

Chart 2: Consumer Expenditure 

Surveys Quarterly Sample, 3rd quarter 

2019 through 3rd quarter 2020

Diary Interview
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In an effort to look at some of the more detailed expenditure categories from both data sources, the CE 

staff compared quarterly aggregates from the CE to PCE for categories that corresponded well with each 

other (i.e., that are defined similarly). This comparison was made by looking at how food and alcohol 

expenditures compared with their counterpart categories from the PCE. The CE defines food and alcohol 

as part of two broad categories, at home5 and away from home6. PCE identifies spending on alcohol and 

food in a similar manner, classifying them as either for off-premises consumption or as part of 

purchased meals. Chart 3B below shows that while aggregates for away from home expenditures 

related to food and alcohol dropped for both PCE and CE, the drop was much larger for the CE in quarter 

2 of 2020. Total spending on alcohol away from home and food away from home in the CE fell 77 

percent and 54 percent, compared to declines of 37 percent and 30 percent in the like PCE categories. 

While the CE aggregate expenditures of alcohol at home (9 percent) showed a similar percent increase 

to its counterpart in the PCE (14 percent), the food at home aggregate expenditures did not, with CE 

showing a 4 percent decrease, compared with an 11 percent increase in the PCE for quarter 2 of 2020. 

 

5 Food at home refers to the total expenditures for food at grocery stores (or other food stores) and food prepared by the CU 

on trips. It excludes the purchase of nonfood items. 6 Food away from home includes all meals (breakfast and brunch, lunch, dinner and snacks and nonalcoholic beverages) 

including tips at fast food, take-out, delivery, concession stands, buffet and cafeteria, at full-service restaurants, and at vending 

machines and mobile vendors. Also included are board (including at school), meals as pay, special catered affairs, such as 

weddings, bar mitzvahs, and confirmations, school lunches, and meals away from home on trips.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2

Chart 3A: Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure 

aggregates, Consumer Expenditure Surveys and Personal Consumption 

Expenditures, 3rd quarter 2019 through 2nd quarter 2020

CE PCE
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Expenditure Mean Estimates

As noted in the 2020 Midyear News Release, the CE program observed several notable changes in the 

major expenditure categories. Of the 14 major spending categories, only three showed an increase over 

the previous midyear estimate, leaving 11 categories that showed declines over the same period. 

As seen in Chart 4 below, the decrease for these 11 categories was more prevalent in the second quarter 

of 2020, with eight of these categories showing a year-over-year percent decrease in quarterly means

greater than 15 percent. Of these eight, apparel and services, personal care products and services, 

alcoholic beverages, and food saw the largest decreases. The decreases in food and alcoholic beverages

were primarily associated with away from home purchases for these two categories. Food at home 

experienced a 3 percent drop, while food away from home experienced a reduction in expenditures of 

54 percent. For alcoholic beverages, the at-home spending portion increased 10 percent, but this 

increase was outweighed by a drop of 77 percent in away from home spending. 

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2

Chart 3B: Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure 

aggregates, Consumer Expenditure Surveys and Personal Consumption 

Expenditures, 3rd quarter 2019 through 2nd quarter 2020

PCE - Food and nonalcoholic

beverages purchased for offpremises consumption

CE - Food at home

PCE - Meals and nonalcoholic

beverages

CE - Food away from home

PCE - Alcoholic beverages purchased

for off-premises consumption

CE - Alcohol at home

PCE - Alcohol in purchased meals

CE - Alcohol away from home
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The CE staff also looked at the year-over-year change in quarterly variance in the CE data from July 2019 

through June 2020. By looking at the RSE specifically, defined as the ratio of the standard error of an 

expenditure to its mean, we can establish if estimates were associated with a larger degree of sampling 

error. Only five of the 14 major spending categories in the second quarter of 2020 increased in RSE 

greater than one percent. As seen in Chart 5 below, only two categories, cash contributions and 

alcoholic beverages, showed a year-over-year increase in RSE greater than two percent. While 

entertainment also showed a large increase in RSE in the second quarter of 2020, the increase was 

offset by an equally large RSE in the second quarter of 2019. For this reason, entertainment does not 

show a large year-over-year increase in RSE in the second quarter of 2020. 

It should be noted that although the major spending categories listed above did not show a large shift in 

variance in the second quarter of 2020, users should still be mindful of the variance measures associated 

with each underlying expenditure, as some expenditures, particularly those with low percent reporting,

are more susceptible to larger degrees of variance. For more information on how to interpret the 

various measurements of variance provided in the CE tables, please see How does the variability of 

Consumer Expenditure data impact your analysis?

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2

Chart 4: Year-over-year percent change in quarterly means, Consumer 

Expenditure Surveys, 3rd quarter 2019 through 2nd quarter 2020

 Apparel and services Personal care products and services

 Alcoholic beverages Food

 Miscellaneous Entertainment

 Transportation Education
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The CE program will continue to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the CE data and products

(microdata files, tables, etc.). Annual calendar year estimates and the full 2020 Public Use Microdata

package will be available in September of 2021. Updates on these products and more will be provided 

on the CE website accordingly.

For further information, contact the Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Office of Prices and Living

Conditions at (202) 691-6900 or by email at cexinfo@bls.gov. CE program staff are available Monday 

through Friday to respond to inquiries. To be notified when new products are available, please sign up 

for CE updates. The menu will prompt you to select Consumer Expenditures.

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2

Chart 5: Year-over-year change in quaterly relative standard error, 

Consumer Expenditure Surveys, 3rd quarter 2019 through 2nd quarter 

2020

 Food Housing Apparel and services Cash contributions Alcoholic beverages