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Analysis of Recall Effect on the Reporting of Expenditures 

For the Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey December 2006

Barry Steinberg, Boriana Chopova, Lucilla Tan, Jared Ogden, Pierre Bahizi

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE, Room 3650 Washington, DC 20212

(Steinberg.Barry@BLS.gov)

Any opinions expressed in this paper are those of 

the authors, and do not constitute policy of the 

Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Key words: Recall, Means, Multiple Comparisons

I. Introduction

The Consumer Expenditure Survey is a nationwide 

household survey conducted by the United States

Bureau of Labor Statistics to find out how Americans 

spend their money. One of the primary uses of the 

data is to provide expenditure weights for the

Consumer Price Index. 

The Consumer Expenditure Survey consists of two 

separate surveys, the Diary (CED) and Quarterly 

Interview (CEQ) surveys. The purpose of the CED is 

to obtain detailed expenditure data on small,

frequently purchased items such as food and apparel. 

The purpose of the CEQ is to obtain detailed

expenditure data on large items such as property,

automobiles, and major appliances; and on expenses 

that occur on a regular basis such as rent, utility bills, 

and insurance premiums. Approximately 3,500

households are visited each quarter of the year in the 

CED, and 15,000 households in the CEQ. This paper 

will focus on the CEQ.

The CEQ has a 3-month recall period in which 

survey respondents are asked to report their

expenditures from the previous three months. Over

the years researchers have noticed that the level of 

reported expenditures tends to decrease across recall 

months, with the highest expenditure reported for the 

most recent recall month (recall month 1), lower 

expenditures reported for the middle month (recall 

month 2), and the lowest expenditure reported for the 

most distant month (recall month 3). This pattern is 

generally believed to be caused by respondents

gradually forgetting about their expenditures over

time, although other theories have been put forth as 

well. 

In this paper, we will show that certain expenditure 

categories have a greater memory recall problem than 

others.

II. Past Research

Silberstein (1989) examined recall effects for two 

item categories (apparel and services, and house

furnishings), using data from the 1984 CEQ survey. 

Relationships of recall effects to demographic

characteristics of the respondent were examined. 

Significant effects were identified for several

demographic characteristics, including age,

education, and household size. The study concluded

that recall effects are not solely a function of

recentness of the purchase, but that respondent 

characteristics also play a role.

Silberstein and Jacobs (1989) examined recall effects 

for several item categories, including house

furnishings, apparel and services, and others. 

Significant recall effects were found for most

categories studied. One part of the analysis involved 

comparing means of expenditures for the most recent 

recall month to the most distant. The authors found 

that mean expenditures “were between 15% and 40% 

lower” for the most distant recall month compared to 

the most recent. 

Cho et al. (2004) examined the association between 

interview characteristics (such as interviewer

workload and interview number) and the overall 

reporting rate in the Interview survey. Reporting rate 

was defined as “the proportion of CE questionnaire 

items that receive a nonzero expenditure report from 
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that household.” The authors found that reporting

rates exhibit a statistically significant decline from 

first to second month, and are about the same for 

second and third month.

III. Methodology

Recall effect for this study was examined at the UCC

(Universal Classification Code) level. A UCC is a 6-

digit member of a coding scheme used by the

Consumer Expenditure (CE) survey to classify

expenditures. It is the lowest level at which CE 

expenditures are tabulated. Examples of UCCs

include Food on Out of Town Trips, Fuel Oil, and 

Lawn and Garden Equipment. Our goal was to

identify items for which expenditures in recall month 

1 were significantly higher than those in the other 

recall months.

 

The mean expenditure per UCC for recall month 1, 

recall month 2, and recall month 3 were calculated 

for expenditure years 2000, 2001, and 2002. Pooled 

variances were calculated for each UCC using the 

Balance Repeated Replication method in order to

perform the Multiple Comparison Test.

 

Multiple comparison tests of the recall month means 

for each year were implemented using the Least 

Significant Difference (LSD) test and Tukey's testsee 

(Ott 1992). 

The LSD test identifies the minimum difference

between two sample means necessary to declare the 

corresponding population means different. All three 

pairs of sample means for each UCC are compared.

If the absolute value of the difference in sample 

means is greater than the LSD statistic, the

population means are declared to be different. For 

each pairwise comparison of means, the probability 

of a Type I error is fixed at a specified value of alpha. 

The major drawback of this test is that unless the

chosen alpha is small, the probability of falsely

declaring at least one pair of means to be different is 

quite large.

The Tukey test also compares the difference between 

two means, but unlike the LSD test, it uses a multiple 

comparison utilizing a controlled experimentwise

error rate. Thus, the probability of observing an

experiment with one or more pairwise comparisons 

falsely declared significant is specified at alpha. The 

choice of which test to use was not a major issue

since the tests gave similar results.

For this study the level of significance was set at 5%.

IV. Data

Similar data inputs were used to identify UCCs for 

which recall month 1 is significantly higher than the 

other recall months. The periods of analyses are for 

expenditure years 2000, 2001, and 2002. The data 

show expenditure ratios (recall month 1 vs. 2 and 

recall month 2 vs. 3) were very consistent across the 

years showing slight inflation throughout the period. 

A. Criteria for determining relevant UCCs for this 

study

1. Type of expenditure question 

Expenditure questions in the CEQ fall into four

general classes which can be found in Appendix I: 

1. month of expenditure

2. bills recorded by month they were received, 

3. ‘usual’ monthly expenditures, and 

4. current month. 

Only questions that specifically ask for “month of 

expenditure” or "when did you purchase it?" are 

relevant for recall effect analysis. Sections that ask 

for “usual monthly expenditures” were excluded.

2. To isolate recall effects, only those parts of a UCC 

that are relevant to the month of expenditure question 

and unadjusted reporting month were included in this 

study. The criteria of relevant expenditure question 

and time adjustment method (when an expenditure is 

assigned to a particular month when it is not

recorded) were applied to determine whether to

include or exclude a UCC. 

3. For each UCC, a reporting rate was calculated as 

the percentage of households that reported at least 

one expenditure in the UCC. Reporting rates were 

calculated for each UCC, by recall month for each 

expenditure year. Zeroes are used in the calculation 

of the means and variances of the expenditures. This 

study used only UCCs with reporting rates greater 

than 1% in order to give the analyzed UCCs some 

credibility.

4. Adjusted expenditure records excluded
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The next step in deriving the appropriate data for this 

study involved removing expenditures that had been 

imputed. In addition to these modifications, in order 

to create Expenditure Year estimates from collected 

year data, additional adjustments had to be made. 

For example, data collected in February 2003 

referencing November 2002 or December 2002 had 

to be included in Expenditure 2002 data.

V. Findings 

There were approximately 400 UCCs in-scope for

this study and 134 of them had a reporting rate of 

1.00% or higher. 

Of these 134 UCCs:

1. 53 UCCs showed significantly higher recall 

month 1 estimates than month 2 and month 3 

for all 3 years, 2000, 2001, and 2002. This 

tended to be irregular purchases or at least 

non-monthly purchases such as clothing,

vehicle services, and out-of-town trips. See 

Table 1 which shows the results for

Expenditure Year 2002.

2. 57 UCCs showed significantly higher recall 

month 1 estimates than recall month 2 for all 

3 years. This contains four additional UCCs 

that were not captured in the 53 above { 

1)Amount borrowed excluding interest on

vehicles, 2) Lamps and lighting fixtures, 3) 

Women’s active sportswear, 4) Auto parts,

equipment, and accessories}.

3. 83 UCCs showed significantly higher recall 

month 1 estimates than recall month 3 for all 

3 years. This shows that about 60% (83/134)

of the UCCs are have statistical significance

between recall month 1 and recall month 3

4. 13 UCCs show recall month 1 vs. recall 

month 2 and recall month 1 vs. recall month 3 

are statistically significant but not recall 

month 2 vs. recall month 3 for all 3 years

5. 15 UCCs show all three possible comparisons 

are significant. This implies that there is a 

recall effect for all comparisons as you work 

backwards through the 3 month interview 

period.

6. 18 UCCs showed no significant recall month 

1 effect for any comparison of means. 

Specifically, these were UCCs for utilities, 

and monthly principal and interest. These

items are consistent and relatively easy to 

remember from month to month.

The presence of a recall effect is shown most vividly 

by result number 3 in which Month 1 is significantly 

greater than Month 3 for more than 60% (83/134) of 

the UCC’s. That is substantial, especially since we 

are using the more conservative Tukey test. In 

addition, as shown by result number 2, over 40 % 

(57/134) of the UCCs show Month 1 is significantly 

greater than Month 2. Result number 1 shows nearly 

40% (53/134) of the expenditures have a one-month

recall effect compared to months 2 and 3. Table 1 

shows this more in detail.

VI. Summary

Previous work in the 1980’s by Silberstein examined 

a small number of selected item categories. She 

convincingly established that a recall effect existed 

for the particular item categories she studied. The 

research we performed updated her results using 

more current data. Our research was also a more 

systematic investigation into the issue by examining 

every relevant UCC instead of just the small number 

of selected items previously used.

We confirmed her findings that a recall effect really 

exists and we determined which types of items are 

affected most by it. Not surprisingly, it is irregularly 

purchased items such as clothing that show the effect

most. Expenditures made on a regular basis such as 

utilities are not as susceptible to the recall problem.

VII. References

1. Ott, R. Lyman and Introduction to Statistical (4th

edition), Wadsworth Publishing Company, 1992, pp. 

807-836

2. Silberstein, Adriana R. “Recall Effects in the U.S. 

Consumer Expenditure Survey.” Journal of Official 

Statistics, 5(2) 1989, pp. 125-142.

3. Silberstein, Adriana R. and Jacobs, Curtis A. 

“Symptoms of Repeated Interview Effects in the

Consumer Expenditure Interview Survey.” From
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“Panel Surveys,” a book by Kasprzyk, Duncan,

Kalton, and Singh, 1989.

4. Cho, M.J., Eltinge, J.L., and Steinberg, B.P. 

“Temporal Patterns of Survey Response Rates and 

Reporting Rates in the U.S. Consumer Expenditure 

Interview and Other Panel Surveys.”, BLS Working 

Paper
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APPENDIX 1

The following shows the question wording in the CEQ, relevant to the recall analyses for this study, by section:-

Section 1 – GENERAL SURVEY INFORMATION

Section 2 – RENTED LIVING QUARTERS

Section 3 – OWNED LIVING QUARTERS AND OTHER OWNED REAL ESTATE

In what month did you close on this property? How much were the closing costs? OPB

In what month did you sell this property? What was the selling price OPD

Section 4 – UTILITIES AND FUELS FOR OWNED AND RENTED PROPERTIES (UTA/P/B/C)

What was the total amount of bill 

In what month was the bill received?

Section 5 – CONSTRUCTION, REPAIRS, ALTERATIONS, AND MAINTENANCE

OF PROPERTY (CRB)

What was the total cost for all items purchased for this job in

(month, 3 months ago)? 

(month, 2 months ago)? 

(last month)? 

(the current month)?

Section 6 – APPLIANCES, HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT, AND OTHER SELECTED ITEMS

When did you purchase it? (APA/B)

Section 7 – HOUSEHOLD EQUIPMENT REPAIRS, SERVICE CONTRACTS, AND FURNITURE REPAIR AND 

REUPHOLSTERING (EQB)

In what month was (repair done/service contract purchased)?

Section 8 – HOME FURNISHINGS AND RELATED HOUSEHOLD ITEMS

In what month did you purchase it? (FRA/B)

Section 9 – CLOTHING AND SEWING MATERIALS CLA/BC/D

In what month did you purchase it?

Section 10 – RENTED AND LEASED VEHICLES

Since the 1st of (month, 3 months ago), excluding (the current month) what has been your expense for renting this 

vehicle?

Section 11 – OWNED VEHICLES OVB/C

In what month did you have this expense?

Section 12 – VEHICLE OPERATING EXPENSES (VEQ VLR) 

In what month did you have this expense?

Section 13 – INSURANCE OTHER THAN HEALTH

How much was paid this month?

Section 14 – HOSPITALIZATION AND HEALTH INSURANCE

Since the 1st of (month, 3 months ago),were any payments made on this policy by any member of your CU? (Include 

those made by payroll deductions.)

Section 15 – MEDICAL AND HEALTH EXPENDITURES MDB/C

In what month was (were) the payment(s) made?

Section 16 – EDUCATIONAL EXPENSES EDA

In what month was the payment made?

Section 17 – SUBSCRIPTIONS, MEMBERSHIPS, BOOKS, AND ENTERTAINMENT EXPENSES

How much of this amount was paid this month?

Section 18 – TRIPS AND VACATIONS TRB

In what month did this trip end?

Section 19 – MISCELLANEOUS EXPENSES MIS CNT

In what month did you have this expense?
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TABLE 1

The following 3 page table shows the results for Expenditure Year 2002. Columns 1 and 2 show the UCC number 

and description, columns 3 – 5 show the Mean expenditures by Recall Month and Columns 5 – 7 show the Tukey test 

results for the comparison by recall month. The Y/N indicator show whether there is statistical significance (Yes) or 

(No). 

UCC UCC TITLE

 

Mean 1 Mean 2 Mean 3

1 vs. 

2

1 vs. 

3

2 vs. 

3

260112 Electricity (owned home) $198.84 $199.08 $199.74 N N N

270310 Cable, satellite, community antenna service $125.90 $125.35 $125.64 N N N

560210 Dental services $81.67 $79.77 $60.80 N Y Y

210210 Lodging on out-of-town trips $76.97 $66.59 $50.45 Y Y Y

230151 Other repair and maintenance services $73.15 $49.51 $57.39 Y Y N

260212 Utility--natural gas (owned home) $69.27 $68.83 $70.86 N N N

190903 FOOD OUT OF TOWN TRIPS $68.04 $55.75 $44.67 Y Y Y

260111 Electricity (renter) $60.76 $58.60 $58.92 N N N

510110 Automobile finance charges $57.01 $57.52 $57.67 N N N

510901 Truck finance charges $54.62 $54.67 $54.71 N N N

530110 Airline fares $54.22 $49.70 $41.13 N Y Y

560110 Physician''s services $53.28 $46.89 $42.67 Y Y N

690111 Computers and computer hardware nonbusiness use $50.87 $46.28 $39.99 N Y N

220512 CAPITAL IMPROVE MATERIALS OWND $42.71 $53.86 $34.39 N N N

480110 Tires - purchased, replaced, installed $35.17 $24.15 $20.80 Y Y Y

430120 Jewelry $34.30 $28.58 $24.58 N Y N

470113 Gasoline on out-of-town trips $33.30 $26.67 $22.86 Y Y Y

690114 Computer information services $32.76 $32.16 $33.36 N N N

490413 Motor repair, replacement $29.14 $20.30 $15.70 Y Y N

270212 Water/sewer maint. (owned home) $28.94 $24.31 $23.39 N Y N

490312 Lube, oil change, and oil filters $27.47 $19.15 $15.16 Y Y Y

230114 Heat, a/c, electrical work $27.40 $24.91 $21.50 N N N

520111 Vehicle registration state (as of Q20012) $26.98 $23.11 $19.93 Y Y Y

400310 Women''s footwear $24.22 $15.94 $14.26 Y Y N

380331 Women''s pants $23.79 $17.06 $13.43 Y Y Y

320410 Lawn and garden equipment $23.05 $14.36 $10.27 Y Y N

380313 Women''s shirts, tops, blouses $22.33 $15.60 $11.98 Y Y Y

360511 Men''s pants $22.05 $17.15 $11.04 Y Y Y

320231 Other household decorative items $21.29 $15.36 $16.49 Y Y N

490221 Brake work (New UCC in Q961) $19.73 $16.36 $12.82 Y Y Y

400110 Men''s footwear $18.18 $12.94 $10.52 Y Y Y

550110 Eyeglasses and contact lenses $17.92 $12.44 $11.75 Y Y N

360410 Men''s shirts $17.77 $12.70 $9.87 Y Y Y

600210 Athletic gear, game tables, and exercise equipment $17.65 $14.22 $13.49 Y Y N

490311 Motor tune-up $16.63 $13.29 $9.89 Y Y Y

480213 Parts, equipment, and accessories $16.34 $11.03 $10.29 Y Y N

260211 Utility--natural gas (renter) $16.31 $15.42 $16.03 N N N

490318 Repair tires and other repair work $15.94 $8.46 $8.87 Y Y N

560400 Service by professionals other than physician $15.80 $12.73 $12.88 N N N

310130 Color tv - portable, table model $15.76 $12.10 $10.03 Y Y Y

270412 Trash/garb. coll. (owned home) $15.04 $11.89 $11.80 Y Y N

190904 FOOD PREPARED BY CU ON TRIPS $14.82 $12.80 $10.05 N Y Y
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380210 Women''s dresses $14.50 $11.33 $7.88 Y Y Y

280120 Bedroom linens $14.50 $10.43 $8.76 Y Y Y

810400 GIFT OF TRIP EXPENSES $13.35 $16.80 $10.58 N N Y

290440 Wall units, cabinets and other occasional furniture $13.19 $11.04 $9.50 N N N

570210 Hospital service other than room $13.14 $9.32 $13.31 N N N

620212 Movie, other admissions, out-of-town trips $12.94 $12.31 $8.60 N Y Y

230113 Plumbing and water heating $12.63 $13.94 $12.97 N N N

250112 Fuel oil (owned home) $12.28 $12.44 $13.05 N N N

560310 Eyecare services $11.35 $8.58 $7.83 N Y N

520512 Auto rental, out-of-town trips $10.62 $8.75 $6.72 Y Y Y

410130 Infant undergarments $10.43 $9.75 $9.75 N N N

310210 VCR''s and video disc players $9.78 $6.56 $6.30 Y Y N

610230 Photographic equipment $9.65 $6.44 $6.96 Y Y N

490412 Electrical system repair $9.62 $7.85 $5.41 Y Y Y

380312 Women''s vests and sweaters $9.35 $7.61 $5.69 Y Y Y

560330 Lab tests, x-rays $9.33 $7.66 $8.10 N N N

380110 Women''s coats and jackets $9.29 $6.27 $6.53 Y Y N

410120 Infant dresses, outerwear $8.61 $6.73 $5.06 Y Y Y

250212 Gas, btld/tank (owned home) $8.53 $8.66 $8.98 N N N

390221 Girls'' skirts and pants $8.11 $5.54 $3.92 Y Y Y

600420 Hunting and fishing equipment $7.96 $4.59 $4.57 Y Y N

200900 Alcoholic beverages purchased on trips $7.88 $6.28 $5.58 Y Y N

390210 Girls'' shirts, blouses, sweaters $7.79 $5.39 $4.10 Y Y Y

380420 Women''s undergarments $7.64 $5.27 $4.69 Y Y N

370312 Boys'' pants $7.43 $5.62 $3.49 Y Y Y

320521 Small electric kitchen appliances $7.27 $5.06 $4.68 Y Y N

380510 Women''s suits $7.22 $6.76 $4.30 N Y Y

320111 Floor coverings, nonpermanent $7.12 $6.32 $4.72 N Y N

280210 Curtains and draperies $6.89 $5.46 $3.83 N Y N

690112 Computer software and accessories for $6.83 $5.53 $4.94 N Y N

610900 Recreation expenses, out-of-town trips $6.70 $5.75 $4.40 Y Y Y

620903 Other entertainment services, out-of-town trips $6.70 $5.75 $4.40 Y Y Y

320420 Power tools $6.53 $4.80 $4.57 Y Y N

400210 Boys'' footwear $6.36 $3.90 $3.59 Y Y N

430110 Watches $6.19 $4.12 $3.26 Y Y N

400220 Girls'' footwear $6.05 $3.82 $3.12 Y Y Y

360210 Men''s coats and jackets $5.76 $5.38 $4.48 N Y Y

620122 Participant sports, out-of-town trips $5.57 $4.78 $3.08 N Y Y

370130 Boys'' shirts $5.51 $3.58 $2.44 Y Y Y

850300 Other vehicle finance charges $5.36 $5.37 $5.26 N N N

320232 Telephones and accessories $5.18 $4.04 $3.79 Y Y N

320220 Lamps and lighting fixtures $4.87 $3.60 $2.99 Y Y N

380332 Women''s shorts, shorts sets $4.87 $2.79 $2.27 Y Y N

240112 Paints, wallpaper and supplies $4.84 $4.09 $2.27 Y Y Y

380320 Women''s skirts $4.69 $2.78 $2.60 Y Y N

320370 Nonelectric cookware $4.59 $3.12 $2.25 Y Y N

280230 Sewing materials for slipcovers, curtains, $4.45 $3.90 $2.39 N Y Y

380901 Women''s accessories $4.32 $3.21 $2.16 Y Y Y

620222 Admission to sports events, out-of-town trips $4.31 $4.10 $2.87 N Y Y

340620 Appliance repair, including service center $4.22 $2.61 $3.42 Y Y Y
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280110 Bathroom linens $4.06 $3.55 $2.70 Y Y Y

340914 Service for termite/pest control $4.03 $4.32 $4.40 N N N

360340 Men''s sweaters and vests $4.01 $3.10 $2.55 Y Y N

320902 Hand tools $3.75 $2.28 $1.82 Y Y N

270211 Water/sewer maint. (renter) $3.74 $3.15 $3.19 N N N

520410 Vehicle inspection $3.74 $2.83 $2.21 Y Y Y

320320 China and other dinnerware $3.47 $2.92 $2.30 N Y N

380430 Women''s hosiery $3.39 $2.45 $1.97 Y Y Y

390222 Girls'' shorts, shorts sets $3.19 $1.39 $1.33 Y Y N

360512 Men''s shorts, shorts sets $3.15 $2.23 $1.51 Y Y Y

380410 Women''s sleepwear $3.01 $2.42 $2.03 Y Y N

390120 Girls'' dresses, suits $2.95 $1.68 $1.69 Y Y N

360311 Men''s underwear $2.92 $1.96 $1.29 Y Y Y

370313 Boys'' shorts, shorts sets $2.87 $1.61 $1.17 Y Y Y

380340 Women''s active sportswear $2.66 $2.10 $2.22 Y N N

440130 Alteration, repair and tailoring of apparel $2.44 $1.71 $1.65 Y Y N

520310 Drivers'' license $2.28 $1.76 $1.80 Y Y N

410901 Infant accessories $2.20 $1.37 $1.33 Y Y N

360330 Men''s accessories $2.18 $1.57 $1.32 Y Y N

390310 Girls'' underwear and sleepwear $2.17 $1.51 $1.21 Y Y Y

440150 Watch and jewelry repair $2.11 $1.57 $1.80 N N N

470211 Motor oil $2.01 $1.32 $1.00 Y Y Y

260113 Electricity (owned vacation) $2.00 $1.64 $1.64 N N N

640420 Electric personal care appliances $1.98 $1.55 $1.31 Y Y N

520532 Parking fees, out-of-town trips $1.84 $1.54 $1.42 Y Y N

360312 Men''s hosiery $1.70 $1.13 $0.83 Y Y Y

320340 Glassware $1.57 $1.05 $1.15 Y Y N

270411 Trash/garb. coll. (renter) $1.47 $1.28 $1.23 N N N

520542 Tolls on out-of-town trips $1.40 $1.05 $0.97 Y Y N

370211 Boys'' underwear $1.23 $0.80 $0.63 Y Y N

390321 Girls'' hosiery $0.80 $0.40 $0.30 Y Y N

370213 Boys'' hosiery $0.75 $0.38 $0.28 Y Y N

240122 Tools and equipment for painting and $0.52 $0.44 $0.24 Y Y Y

420120 Sewing patterns and notions $0.52 $0.60 $0.40 N N N

470212 Motor oil on out-of-town trips $0.34 $0.27 $0.23 Y Y Y