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Geoffrey Paulin, Ph.D.

Senior Economist

Consumer Expenditure Survey Program

Eastern Economic Association

February 27, 2021

Virtual Event

Investigating Risky Behaviors: Innovative 

Uses of the Consumer Expenditure Survey

Historical Evidence from the Diary and 

Interview Components
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Caveat Emptor:

*This presentation is based on work in progress.

The work is exploratory.

All results are preliminary.

No formal theories have been proposed or tested.

However, no data were harmed in the production of this presentation.
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Part 1: Risky Behaviors and Age...

3

Trends in Alcohol, Tobacco, and Fast Food 

Expenditures by Young Adults (Diary) 
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Motivations:

 The CDC produces a report (annually, since 

1991) showing trends in risky behaviors for 

young adults.

 Young adults are both our present AND our 

future

Current employment leads to higher tax revenue, 

Social Security inputs, etc.

Behaviors today affect health status in later years

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This presentation:

 Uses data from the Consumer Expenditure 

Survey (CE)

 Compares young adults (under 25) with the 

rest of the population

 Describes: trends in expenditure levels; 

percent reporting; and budget shares

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The Data:

 Tabular (so far)

 Mostly available online (exception: Percent 

reporting)

 Are weighted to reflect the population

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Additional Notes:

 Data for alcoholic beverages and most food away 

from home are published from the Diary Survey. 

However, expenditures for tobacco and smoking 

supplies are derived mostly from the Interview 

Survey.

 For this presentation, total food away from home is 

examined. However, expenditures for fast food are 

available on tables by type of meal (breakfast, lunch, 

dinner, and snack).

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Why total “food away” for now?

 The online tool used to compute trends in this 

presentation does not provide details on food away 

from home.

 Percent reporting (described subsequently) is not 

available on tables for all “fast food,” but only for 

each meal. Computing for all “fast food” requires 

microdata.

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Findings:

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Trends

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Before examining graphs, some 

general findings are:

 Expenditure patterns move in similar 

directions for both age groups.

 Young adults spend less on tobacco and food 

away from home, but more most years on 

alcohol.

 Expenditures decline for each item in 

response to the recent recession (2007-2009).

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Expenditures rise at a faster rate for 

young adults...

y = 5.6016x - 10840

R2 = 0.4281

y = 7.8289x - 15292

R2 = 0.8149

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Average Annual Expenditures

Axis Title

Alcoholic Beverages,

1984-2013

Under 25 25 and over (est.) Linear (Under 25) Linear (25 and over (est.))

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...At about the same rate for each group for tobacco 

and smoking supplies...

y = 4.1758x - 8116.6

R2 = 0.6255

y = 4.275x - 8248.8

R2 = 0.8357

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Average Annual Expenditures

Axis Title

Tobacco and Smoking Supplies,

1984-2013

Under 25 25 and over (est.) Linear (Under 25) Linear (25 and over (est.))

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...and at a slower rate for young adults for 

food away from home.

y = 35.792x - 69987

R2 = 0.8319

y = 50.675x - 99159

R2 = 0.9281

$0

$500

$1,000

$1,500

$2,000

$2,500

$3,000

1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Average Annual Expenditures

Axis Title

Food Away from Home,

1984-2013

Under 25 25 and over (est.) Linear (Under 25) Linear (25 and over (est.))

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Expenditures may differ because of 

percent reporting:

 Averages in tables are for all consumers, even 

those who did not purchase.

 Dividing average expenditures by percent 

reporting shows average for those who 

actually purchased.

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Furthermore, percent reporting 

is important in its own right:

It describes whether goods or 

services of interest are being 

purchased by a wide or narrow 

portion of each age group.

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Percent reporting is about the same or less for young adults 

compared to the total population* for alcohol...

29.1

21.2 20.6

28.3

24.0 23.5

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2004 2009 2013

Percent Reporting: Alcoholic Beverages

Under 25 All Consumer Units

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*Percent reporting for 25 and older is not available on tables, and cannot 

be estimated from them. Therefore, “all consumer units” value is used.
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...about the same for food away 

from home...

75.7

70.6 72.3 75.0

70.4 69.9

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2004 2009 2013

Percent Reporting: Food Away from Home

Under 25 All Consumer Units

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...and noticeably less for tobacco, 

at least in 2013.

23.2 22.5

16.6

22.5 22.1

19.4

0

5

10

15

20

25

2004 2009 2013

Percent Reporting: Tobacco and smoking supplies

Under 25 All Consumer Units

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Whether this is a one-year anomaly or the start of a new trend requires further investigation.
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Budget shares are also of interest:

 Young adults may spend less on average for 

specific goods because they have lower 

incomes, and therefore spend less generally;

 So how do they allocate total expenditures?

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Shares allocated to alcohol and tobacco 

are small...

1.2%

0.7%

0.9%

0.6%

0.0%

0.2%

0.4%

0.6%

0.8%

1.0%

1.2%

1.4%

Alcoholic Beverages Tobacco and Smoking Supplies

Shares of Total Expenditures Allocated to Alcohol and 

Tobacco by Age Groups,

2013

Under 25 25 and over (est.)

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...However, younger adults spend a slightly larger share on alcohol in 2013.
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Food away from home is more interesting:

6.9%

5.1%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

7.0%

8.0%

Food away from home

Shares of Total Expenditures Allocated to Alcohol and 

Tobacco by Age Groups,

2013

Under 25 25 and over (est.)

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Young adults spend less ($2,096) in absolute dollars than other consumers ($2,662), 

but this accounts for a larger share of their total expenditures.
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At the same time, for young adults...

Under 25

Food at 

home

55%

Food 

away 

from 

home

45%

Total Food

Food at home Food away from home

25 and older (est.)

Food at 

home

60%

Food 

away 

from 

home

40%

Total Food

Food at home Food away from home

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...Food away from home accounts for a larger 

share of the food budget than food at home.
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Note that these figures do not 

control for:

 Price change. However, even if they do (say, 

by dividing each year’s value by its CPI) the 

general observations will not change (both 

generally rise or fall, e.g.), even if the shape of 

the curve may

 Percent reporting (although similarities for 

expenditures examined mitigates problem)

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Nor do they control for:

 Demographics

 Income

 Family size

 Some of this is why regression is useful.

Logit or probit to predict probability of purchase

OLS or other technique to estimate marginal 

propensity to consume and income elasticity

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In addition, other expenditures are 

worth study:

 Health care

Insurance

Medical supplies

Medical services

Drugs (prescription and nonprescription)

 Sports, recreation, and exercise equipment

 Food at home

 Fresh fruits

 Fresh vegetables

 Potato chips and other snacks

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But as this is a work in 

progress...

...Regression and other analyses are 

left for...

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...FUTURE WORK.
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Comments/Suggestions are 

welcome!
Contact Information

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Geoffrey Paulin, Ph.D.

Senior Economist

Division of Consumer Expenditure Surveys 

www.bls.gov/cex

paulin.geoffrey@bls.gov