National Crime Victimization Survey 

(NCVS) 

Survey Redesign Seminar 

July 17th, 1-3pm 

BLS
NCVS Overview

• Annual estimates of level and changes in household and 

person criminal victimizations in the U.S. 

• Household sample frame 

– Households:~60,000 interviewed twice a year 

– Persons: ~90,00 persons interviewed twice a year 

• Rotating panel design- HHs interviewed up to 7 waves over a 

3-year period 

• 6-month reference period 

• Mixed-mode: TIS 1 in-person, TIS2-7 primarily by phone; 

Replacement households- in-person 
Redesign Motivations

• Survey was flat funded for more than a decade and cuts in 

sample and quality controls caused a break in series. 

• National Academy of Science panel on NCVS 

• Initial focus 2008 

– Restoration of sample/reliability 

– Containing costs 

• Current focus 

– Restoring core sample and quality 

– Modernization and stakeholder utility/value 

– Costs 

– Handling the unexpected—screening issues
Restoring the Core Design

• Sample re-instatement. 

– Restore precision and reliability 

– Sample is back to 1997 levels for households 

• Interviewer training 

– All interviewers have been trained for the first time in 

a decade. 

• Expand interviewer evaluation metrics beyond 

simply response rates. 

• Assessment of the effects of improvements on 

annual rates. 
Fundamental Re-negotiation of 

Relationship with Census

• Substantially expanded IAA to include more 

specifics on what is expected from Census. 

• NCVS is one of two surveys participating in 

Census re-organization of field and central 

office staff. 

• Adopted Census implementation team design 

around internal service providers 

• Introduction of paradata analytics to address 

cost and quality issues. 
Changes to infrastructure and process

• Small area focus - vetting process 

• Protocol for item and supplement review on a 

routine basis 

• Field management- Census RO restructuring, 

FR supervision and feedback, paradata 

• Fitness for use panel 
Research Priorities

• Sub-national estimation program. 

• Improving the measurement of rape and 

sexual assault. 

• Exploring long term cost reductions. 

• Improving measurement of victimization of 

juveniles and young children. 
Sub-national Estimation 

• Generic area estimation 

• Direct estimates for largest cities and states 

– Simulations demonstrate feasibility 

– Pilot boost to test assumptions of simulations 

• Indirect estimates 

– Models under development 

• Blended estimates 

– Low cost mailed screeners being tested 

– Blending methods being developed 
Measuring Rape and Sexual Assault 

• NCVS is not the optimum design for measuring rape 

and sexual assault. 

• Competing approaches to measuring these events. 

– Public health approach. 

– Criminal justice approach. 

• Public health approach does not satisfy the information 

demands of the criminal justice system 

• CNSTAT panel is charged with identifying an optimum 

design. 

• Field test to follow. 
Research Conducted 

• Sample reinstatement- workload 

• Refresher training and monitoring 

• Small area research- direct and indirect 

• Cost/mode studies (initial efforts 2008) 

– Mode 

– IVR 

– Nonresponse 
Final Redesign Model 

• Design decisions will be made in 2014 for 

implementation in 2016. 

– If pilot boost successful, expansion of sub-national 

estimates to larger number of states and localities. 

– Rape and sexual assault field test will indicate if a separate 

survey is required for measuring these crimes or changes 

can be made in NCVS. 

• Approval process 

– Sub-national estimation—vetting with constituent groups 

– CNSTAT panel for rape and sexual assault 

– DOJ and OMB as part of the budget process 
Redesign Evaluation 

• Redesign will be successful if the NCVS core 

survey is stabilized. 

– Sample size restored 

– Training and quality controls in place 

– Control over field staff and costs 

• And if the survey plays a larger role in policy 

formation and resource allocation. 

– Rape and sexual assault statistics seen as authoritative 

– Sub-national estimates used to guide federal funding 
Current Status 

• Timeline for adoption and implementation 

• NAS panel 2008 

• Focus on sample restoration, first wave June 2011 

• Field quality- refresher training and monitoring 2011-

2012

• Sate-level pilot boost 2013-2015

• State sample implementation/decennial redesign 2016 

• Instrument recommendations and redesign efforts 

present-2016

• New survey in production 2016 
Costs 

• Current survey annualized costs are ~$27 

million 

• Approximately $18M spent on Redesign 

• The Redesigned NCVS will do more and it will 

cost more. 
Contacts 

Bureau of Justice Statistics 

James P. Lynch 

James.Lynch@ojp.usdoj.gov

William Sabol 

William.Sabol@usdoj.gov

202-514-1062 

Michael Planty 

Michael.Planty@usdoj.gov

202-514-9746