1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Retrospective of the CE-PCE Comparisons and a 

look to the future

Taylor J. Wilson

Bureau of Labor Statistics

Society of Government Economists (SGE)

Washington, D.C.

5 April 2019
2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

 CE Surveys collect the following data:

Expenditures

Demographics

Income

Assets and Liabilities

 The only nationally representative 

survey to collect the complete range 

of all three.

Consumer Expenditure Survey Overview
5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

 The CE is a nationwide survey designed to represent the entire U.S. 

civilian noninstitutionalized population.

 Under contract, the BLS pays the U.S. Census Bureau to collect CE data 

from consumer units (CUs) or households - people living at one address 

who share living expenses. 

 Survey participants report dollar amounts for all non-investment 

purchases. Business expenses and reimbursements are excluded.

Consumer Expenditure Survey Overview
6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Consumer Expenditures Overview

 CE provides survey weights 

for the Consumer Price 

Index. 

 Relative importance of 

categories is derived from 

the share of total 

expenditures. 
7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

 Consumer spending is the value of 

the goods and services purchased 

by, or on the behalf of, U.S. 

residents.

 Drawn from a mix of establishment 

and household surveys.

 Economic Census

 Services Annual Survey

 Quarterly Services Survey

 Annual Retail Trade Survey

 Advance Monthly Retail Sales Survey

 Consumer Expenditure Survey

Personal Consumption Expenditures Overview
9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

 Produced and released monthly as a part of the National Income 

and Product Accounts (NIPA). 

 The source data used for the PCE estimates are complete only for 

benchmark years (e.g., 2007, 2012)

 Extrapolation used to create the monthly values.

Retail control method for most goods is based on data from the Monthly 

Retail Trade Survey (MRTS) 

The remaining items are estimated using other indicator series.

 End result is aggregate spending for the nation by category. 

 Estimates going back a few years are adjusted with releases. 

 A price index, used by the Fed, is generated from PCE data. 

Personal Consumption Expenditures Overview
10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

2014 data
11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

The Comparison

 Both data sources purport to 

measure the same basic 

phenomenon—personal 

expenditures for consumers.

 Inherent differences are present 

between the two data sources.

Coverage

Definitional

Measurement
13 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Coverage

 Included in PCE but not in CE

Nonprofit Institutions Serving 

Households (NPISH)

– About 2 to 3 percent of PCE 

expenditures

Institutionalized populations

Domestic military on post

Military stationed abroad

U.S. citizens working abroad 

for less than 1 year who 

usually live in the U.S. 

 Included in CE but not in PCE

Students

Temporary workers

Foreign nationals residing in 

the U.S. who are employees of 

other countries. 
14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Definitional

 Households vs. Consumer Units

 Expenditures in PCE with no CE counterpart

Third party expenditures by government and employers

Financial Services and Insurance

 Insurance is often non-comparable

PCE measures this based on costs incurred by companies

CE measures this based on premiums paid by consumers

 Transfer payments in CE

Social Security, Charitable Contributions, and Donations
15 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Measurement

 Underestimation by households in CE

Gambling, Alcohol, and Tobacco

Respondent underestimation of other 

household members’ expenditures

 Sampling error in PCE source surveys

 Response rate decline in all surveys
16 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
17 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Retrospective

 Topline comparison of aggregate values, adjusted for 

comparability and population, produced a CE-PCE ratio of 77 

percent for the most recent data (2017).

 Comparable categories are consistent over the last eight years. 

 Durables ratio appears to be improving and services ratio 

appears to decrease, though changes may be due to variance 

alone. 

 Re-benchmarking could potentially change the comparison 

values considerably. 
18 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Comparable Ratios over Time

Total Durables Non-Durables Services
19 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Comparable "Sin" Ratios over Time

Gambling Alcohol Tobacco
20 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Highly Comparable Ratios over Time

Motor Vehicles and Parts Rent and Utilities Communication
21 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Outline

 Consumer Expenditures (CE) Overview

 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Overview

 The Comparison

 Retrospective

 Going Forward
22 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS TATISTICS • bls.gov bls.gov

Going Forward

 Benchmark Year

Updating the concordance

Shifting categories and reorganization of items

 Allocating previously unallocated expenditures can reduce the 

percentage of non-allocated items. 

 Survey redesign may improve measurement issues on the CE 

side.
Contact Information

23 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Taylor J. Wilson

(202) 691-6550

Wilson.Taylor@bls.gov