Comparison of Estimates from t

CE Survey and PCE from the NCE Survey and PCE from the N

The Case of Recreation Expendi

American Council on Consumer Interests52nd Annual ConferenceBaltimore, MDMarch 16, 2006
Outline

Overview of CE-PCE ComparisonsSummary of CE-PCE Recreation 

Estimates 

Derivation of CE & PCE Estimates Derivation of CE & PCE EstimatesEvaluation of CE & PCE EstimatesMethdl i i i hodology & Questionnaire Desig
Since the Start of the Ongoing CE Since the Start of the Ongoing CE

“What was expected from these compar

was a sense of degree and direction was

a sense of degree and direction 

possible survey errors, rather than an 

measure of bias because the specifmeasure of bias, because the specif

estimates from other sources are n

necessarily the necessarily the ‘true’ values

”

(Gieseman 1987 p 9)(Gieseman 1987, 

p. 9)
PCE: Primary Source of Independ

Data for Comparison O er Time Data for Comparison

O

ver Time

Used for source selection for integra

Used for source selection for integra

published data (Diary or Interview)

Publish comparisons in biennial Publish comparisons in biennial

publications

Monitor consistency of results Monitor consistency of resultsHelp identify areas where CE data 

collection and methods might be impcollection and methods might be imp

by understanding the differences
CE to PCE Aggregate E pendit r

CE to PCE Aggregate

E

xpendit

ur

1992 

( ) billions

) 1997 

( ) billions

) 2002 

Total CE $2,856 $3,590 $Total PCE $4,235 $5,545 $

% Total 67% 65% 

Total CE Comparable $2,085 $2,564 $

Total PCE Comparable Total PCE Comparable $2 422 , $3 028 , $

% Comparable 86% 85% 

CE Comp f arable as % of 73% 71% CE TotalPCE Comparable as % of PCE Total

57% 55% 

Revised, 1997 Benchmark
Issues to Consider: CE vs PCE Issues to Consider: CE vs. PCE

 Po

pulations differ 

– CE 

p po

p. 3.3% than PCE in 1997

 Expenditures: concept / scope, definition Collection / Sources of data  Sources of error Sources of error

– CE

» Measurement errors associated with surveys

» Processing imputation / allocation Processing imputation

/ allocation

– PCE

» Expert judgment» Inter

p p olation / extra

polation

» Measurement errors associated with surveys (non-

 PCE revisions
Analytical Example Analytical Example

1997 E dit f R t1997

Expenditures 

for 

Recreat

in the CE and PCE
R ti l f Y d E dit C 

R

ationa

le 

for 

Year an

d

Expenditure 

C

a

 Why 1997? Why 1997?

– Data represent latest benchmark year at time – Benchmark data are available at finer level o

detail

 Why recreation?

– CE di f i i l 

CE expenditures 

for serv

ices, 

in genera

l, are 

of PCE services

– The difference between aggregate CE and PC

recreati ti t i l ti l l tion estima

tes 

is re

l

ative

ly 

large

– As opposed to other service categories exhib

differences, there are no a priori explanation

res ltsres

ults
Expenditures for recreation, total and by m

item cate

gor

y, 1997 CE d PCE CE an

d PCE - (millions 

Item category CE PCE 

Total recreation

Motion picture & legitimate theaters, 

$107,583 $215,067 

opera, and entertainments of nonprofit institutions (excl. athletic)

Spectator sportsR di & TV i

13,582

5,013

775

15,78110,108

2 850

R

adio 

& TV repair 

Clubs & fraternal organizationsCommercial participant amusementsP i t l t i t & l tt i

775

7,931

10,896

5 616

2,850

16,28559,42318 265

Parimu

tuel ne

t receip

ts 

& lotteries 

Pets, vets, & other pet servicesCable TV 

5,616

11,688

27,697

18,26512,83730,131
Expenditures for recreation, total and by m

item cate

gor

y, 1997 CE d PCE ( ) CE an

d PCE

(cont.

)

Item category CE PCE 

Film developing & photo studiosS

portin

g & recreational cam

p

s

5,5702,254

12,602

1,414

p g

p 

Video cassette rental

Internet service providersCommercial amusements, not else4,255 2,181 8,193 3,575 

,

where classified 10,125 23,311 
Derivation of CE Estimates Derivation of CE Estimates

 Interview survey is the source for about 86 

percent of aggregate recreation expenditurewhile the Diary survey accounts for the remwhile the Diary survey accounts for the rem

14 percent

 Individual ex

p pg enditure re

ports ori

ginate in 

ways.

– Directly reported by respondent– All ti f dit h d t 

Allocation o

f expenditures w

here respon

den

t r

expenditure for a combination of items

– Imputation of expenditures where respondent

acknowledges purchase, but does not provide 
Derivation of PCE Estimates Derivation of PCE Estimates

 Process uses data created for preparation o

output accounts for U. S.

 The benchmark purchasers’ value of goods 

services is calculated to determine allocabservices is calculated to determine allocaboutput.

 Total purchasers’ value is allocated among

intermediate and end users.
Amount of value added to total recreation 

esti b f 1997 PCE imate by

factor, 1997 PCE

Factor

Value added

(millions of dollars) (millions of dollars)

Total $215,067

Basic value

Wholesale margin

$208,064

Wholesale margin 30Transportation costWholesale taxes

3076

6,153

Retail marginRetail taxes

677

68
Aggregation and allocation of receipts for 

recreati 1997 I/O A ( ion, 1997 I/O

Accounts 

(millions of do

B i Wh l

T

Comm & 

Aggre

gation of receipts

Basic h l R il 

value

Wh

ole. 

margin

Trans

.cost

w

h

ole. 

taxes

Retail

margin

Payroll establishments Nonemployer establishmentsTax-exempt establishments

$310,593

19,922

82 $330,597

Adjustments:

Secondary productionNonemployer misreportingFiler misreportingNonfiler misreporting

14,783

1,6641,505

Nonfiler misreporting 3,337Capital consumption allow. 507 21,796

Allocable receipts $352,393 $112 $294 $7,565 $752 Imports Adjustments:

2,332

Census re-exports NIPA territorial adj. to imports 

-41

1

Allocable import receipts 2,292 Total allocable recei

pts 354,685 112 294 7,565 752 p , , 
Aggregation and allocation of receipts for r

1997 I/O A 1997 I/O

Accounts 

– cont. 

(millions of dollars)

Allocation of Production

Basic 

value

Whole.

margin

Trans. 

cost

Comm & 

whole. taxes

Retail 

margin

R

t

Exports of goods

Intermediate production

1,400

19 186

3046

78

119

0

74

6

Intermediate production Travel & conference servicesReal estate servicesLegal, accounting, & insurance servicesCommunication & utility services

19,186

7,1246,505

5

4,054

46

0000

119

0000

74

9

38

0

59

6

Rental & leasing of equipmentRepairs & maintenance costsGovernment purchases & sales –

Federal, state, local, foreign

Net purchases & sales of foreigners

11,748

9,870

-1,828

2 099

0000

0000

261

53

-284

0

Net purchases

& sales of foreigners 

Change in inventoriesUnspecified costsUnallocated output

2,099

44

41,497

5,783

0150

01

13

0

00

565259
Aggregation and allocation of receipts for re

1997 I/O Accounts 

– cont. 

(millions of dollars)

Allocation of Production

Basic 

value

Whole.

margin

Trans. 

cost

Comm & 

whole. taxes

Retail 

margin

R

t

PCE Sporting Equipment

PCE Sports Supplies Incl Ammo

602

48

01

03

50

0

41

PCE Sports Supplies, Incl. Ammo PCE Fish & SeafoodPCE Food in Purchased MealsPCE Alcohol in Purchased MealsPCE Other Meats

4878

452

98

129

10000

35000

00

33

00

4128

000

PCE Toys, Dolls, & GamesPCE Electrical RepairPCE Laundry & Garment RepairPCE Beauty Shops & Health ClubsPCE C i l & V ti l S h l

16

1,708

230

6,5571 742

00000

00000

0

2212

169

1

00000

PCE

Commercial &

Vocational S

c

hools 

PCE Elementary & Secondary SchoolsPCE Miscellaneous Personal ServicesPCE BusPCE Mass Transit S

ystems

1,742

832

15

663

7,686

00000

00000

10000

00000

y ,
Aggregation and allocation of receipts for re

1997 I/O A 1997 I/O

Accounts 

– cont. 

(millions of dollars)

Basic Whole. Trans. Comm & Retail R

Allocation of Production value margin cost whole. taxes margin tPCE Other Purchased Intercity 

Transportation

PCE Other Motor Vehicle Services

6,242

98

00

00

37

2

00

PCE Other Motor Vehicle Services PCE Hotels & MotelsPCE PostagePCE Household Operations Services, 

Not Elsewhere Classified (NEC)

C f i lA i i

98

418

16

4,1054 41

00000

00000

2

15

0

74

0

00000

P

CE Professional Association Expenses 

PCE Social WelfarePCE Recreation

4,41

7

2,980

208,064

00

30

00

76

08

6,153

00

677

354, 685 112 294 7,565 752 
E al ation of CE and PCE Estima

E

val

uation of CE and PCE Estima

Standard errors and confidence 

intervals

E pert j dgment E

xpert

j

udgment

Classification of items
Standard error and 95% confidence interv

t t l ti dit 1997 CE t

o

t

a

l recreation expenditures, 1997 CE

It

Value

em (millions of dollars) (millions of dollars)

Total recreation $107,583Standard error Standard error $2 430 ,95% confidence intervals

U li it Upper li

mit $112 346 $112,346

Lower limit $102,820
Quality identifier in PCE Quality identifier in PCE

 Since PCE is compiled from numerous so

Since PCE is compiled from numerous so

calculating standard errors and confidencintervals is not feasible.

 The basic value for each transaction contr

The basic value for each transaction contr

to PCE is assigned a quality ID of 1, 2, or decreasing order of quality or level of con
Quality identifier in PCE Quality identifier in PCE

– con

 Quality ID of 1 Quality ID of

1

– basic value based on survey c

basic value based on survey, c

other reliable published source

 Quality ID of 2 – basic value based on source da

further estimates made by BEA

 Quality ID of 3 – basic value not based on surve

other reliable source other reliable source

 83 percent of basic value for recreation derived f

Quality ID 2 transactions

 Remaining 17 percent derived from Quality ID 3 

transactions
Expert Judgment in CE Expert Judgment in CE

Data adjustment in CE 

– Allocation 

procedures

– Imputation procedures

“Analyst judgment” in PCE

– T diti & i Tradition 

& exper

ience 

– ‘S’ ‘R’ 

‘S’s, ‘R’s 

‘IED998’s

E li it

–

Expli

cit
Impact of data adjustment procedures on r

esti t 1997 CE tima

tes, 1997 CE ( illi f d ll ) (

millions of

d

ollars

)

Allocated

% Imputed

% 

Item Total

Allocated

%

Allocated

Imputed

%

Imputed

Total recreation $107,583 $3,447 3.2% $2,663 2.5% 

Movies theater etc Movies, theater, etc. 13 582 , 259 1 9%. 608 4 4%. Spectator sports 5,013 86 1.7% 299 6.0% Radio & TV repair 775 67 8.6% 15 1.9% Clubs & frat orgs Clubs

& frat. orgs. 7 931 , 0 0 0%. 323 4 1%. 

Comm. participant

amusements 10,896 1,285 11.8% 582 5.3% 

Parimut & lotteries Parimut. & lotteries 5 616 , 347 6 2%. 0 0 0%. Pets & vets 11,688 109 0.9% 32 0.3% 

* Other includes manual adjustment, combined imputation and allocation, and special 

processing (Trips and Vacations).
Impact of data adjustment procedures on r

esti t 1997 CE tima

tes, 1997 CE

– con

t. ( illi f d ll ) (

millions of

d

ollars

)

Allocated

% Imputed

% 

Item Total

Allocated

%

Allocated

Imputed

%

Imputed

Cable TV $27,697 189 0.7% $223 0.8% Film developing & Film developing

&

photo studios 5,570 403 7.2% 228 4.1% 

Sport. & rec. camps 2,254 404 17.9% 0 0.0% 

Video cassette rental 4,255 0 0.0% 186 4.4% 

Internet service

providers 2,181 0 0.0% 17 0.8% 

Commercial amusements, NEC 10,125 298 2.9% 150 1.5% 

* Other includes manual adjustment, combined imputation and allocation, and special processing (Trips and Vacations).
Expert Judgment in PCE Expert Judgment in PCE

Tradition & experience

– ‘S’ - Domestic supply Domestic supply– ‘IED998’ - Converted 1992 commo

flow records flow records

– ‘R’ - Residual

Explicit

–

“Based on analyst judgment

”

Based on analyst judgment
Classification of Items Classification of Items

CE - UCC for parimutuel receipts inc

miscellaneous fees, such as pet, fishinhunting licenses that can’t be separate

CE - UCC for sportin

g and recreation

camp fees includes sports camps, suc

football and baseball.

– PCE assigns sports instruction camps to 

commercial amusements, NEC.
Methodology & Questionnaire De

S tt S t E l Spec

t

a

tor 

Spor

ts 

Examp

l

e

 Items in PCE Items in PCE

– Pro & semi-pro baseball admission receipts– Pro & semi-pro football admission receipts– Oth & i Other pro 

& sem

i

-

pro sport lb d i i ts c

l

u

bs a

d

m

iss

ion

– Other receipts from sports teams & clubs– Admission receipts for horse racetracks

– Admission receipts for dog racetracks

– Admission receipts for auto racetracks

– Racing (excl. track oper., radio, TV, & ads) Racing (excl. track oper., radio, TV,

& ads)

– Exhibition bowling– Travel arrangement & reservation services
Spectator Sports Example Spectator Sports Example – cont.

 Items in PCE Items in PCE

– cont.

– Promoters of performing arts, sports, and sim– College sports College sports– Sales & services of higher educational est. in

to education activities

– Government sales of elementary & secondary 

education services
Spectator Sports Example Spectator Sports Example – cont.

 UCC s’ in CE

– 620221 – Admission to sporting events– 620222 – Admission to sporting events, out-of-town t

 Questions for UCC 620221

– “Since the 1st of (month, 3 months ago), have you (or 

members of your CU) purchased any of the following members of your CU) purchased any of the following 

own use?”

- Season tickets to sporting events

– “Have you (or any members of your CU) paid any sin

admissions to spectator sporting events such as footbahockey, or soccer?”
Spectator Sports Example Spectator Sports Example – cont.

 Questions for UCC 620222 

– For trips paid for at least in part by the CU and not a p

“Did you (or any members of your CU) spend anythin

for entertainment or admissions (not counting what th

deal covered? Hand respondent information booklet, pag

– The info booklet gives the following cues:

» Movies Theaters Concerts» Museums Tours Sports events» Other entertainment event

– 25 

p 

ercent of the amount is allocated to UCC 620222 

trips, 11 percent if the trip is reported as a local overn
Spectator Sports Example

– cont

– For reimbursed trips, trips for non-CU members and pac

Spectator Sports Example

– cont.

“Did [the trip] expenses include anything for - ?

Food and beverages LodgingTrans

portation An

y g thin

g else

– A portion of “Anything else” is allocated to entertainmen

admissions depending on what other items were included 

– 25 percent of the entertainment and admissions portion i

25 percent of the entertainment and admissions portion i

allocated to UCC 620222.

 Thus, the CE instrument and methodology do not e

same d t il t t t d

e

t

ail on spec

t

a

tor spor

ts expenses as th PC

e 

data provides. The questions are also asked towarof the interview at which point fatigue may be a fa
Instrument Changes Instrument Changes

 S ti 17A Section 17A

– S b i ti d M b hi S

u

bscr

i

ptions an

d

Mem

bership

– Question in CAPI instrument asks for membershi

costs or other expenses for item codes 9 costs or other expenses for item codes

9

-12. Item 

12. Item 

9 is split into two new item codes

» Original code 9: Country clubs, health clubs, swimming 

tennis clubs social or other recreational organizations tennis clubs, social or other recreational organizations

» New code 6: Golf courses, country clubs, and other soci

organizations

» N d 7 H lth l b fit t i i 

New co

de 

7: Health c

l

u

bs, fitness cen

ters, sw

imm

ing po

weight loss centers, or other sports and recreational organizations
Instrument Changes Instrument Changes

– cont

.

 Section 17B Section 17B

– Books and Entertainment Exp

Books and Entertainment Exp

– More cues added to questions in CAPI instrumen

» Original: “Have you . . . paid any fees for participating 

sports such as tennis, golf, bowling, or swimming?”

» New: “Have you . . .pain any fees for participating in s

such as golf, bowling, biking, hockey, football, or swimming?

”

» Original: “Have you . . . paid any single admissions to 

spectator sports such as football, baseball, hockey, or s

» New:

“Have you paid any single admissions to spec

Have you . . . paid any single admissions to spec

sports such as football, baseball, hockey, racing, or tracevents?”
Instrument Changes Instrument Changes

– cont

.

 Section 17B Section 17B

– Books and Entertainment Ex

Books and Entertainment Ex

– Question added to CAPI instrument with reword

original question

» Orii l i g

ina

l quest

ion: “Have you . . . paid i l d 

 any s

ing

le a

d

m

to entertainment activities such as movies, plays, operconcerts?”

» Reworded original question: Reworded original question:

“Have you paid any 

Have you . . . paid any 

admissions to performances such as movies, plays, opconcerts?”

» Added 

q y p yg uestion: “Have 

you . . . 

paid an

y sin

gle admis

other entertainment activities such as museums, amusparks, zoos, or state parks?”
Summary of Evaluation Summary of Evaluation

 Differential between 1997 CE and PCE estima

billion

– If true CE estimate at upper end of confidence inter

billion

– If PCE estimate adjusted to CE population - $7 bill– Though we have no estimates of effects, it is unlike

adjusting other BLS allocation/imputation procedureapplying BEA expert judgment in allocation decitotal purchasers’ value would have an appreciable iexpenditure differential.

 Remaining differential - approx. $95 billion A t ti l th d l i l f th diff 

A po

tenti

a

l meth

o

d

o

log

ica

l reason 

for the diffe

questionnaire design in the CE.