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CES National Benchmark Article

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate 

March 2023 Benchmarks 

Authors: Rokeya Khan and Thomas Woolley 

About the authors: 

Rokeya Khan and Thomas Woolley are economists in the Division of Current Employment 

Statistics–National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. 

Telephone: (202) 691-6555 

Email: Contact CES 
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Table of Contents

Summary of the revisions............................................................................................................... 3

Overview......................................................................................................................................... 4

Seasonally adjusted estimates......................................................................................................... 4

Not seasonally adjusted estimates................................................................................................... 5

Not seasonally adjusted revisions............................................................................................... 6

Benchmark revision effects for other data types ...................................................................... 10

Net birth-death revisions............................................................................................................... 14

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death......................................................................................... 15

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period ...................................................... 15

Changes to the CES published series............................................................................................ 17

Availability of revised data........................................................................................................... 25

Table of figures............................................................................................................................. 26
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Summary of the revisions 

With the release of January 2024 data on February 2, 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 

introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. 

The March 2023 benchmarked, seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm 

employment is 155,206,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 

154,253,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2023, total 

nonfarm employment had a revision of -266,000 or -0.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted 

total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by -187,000 or -0.1 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for 

January 2023 through December 2023. The revised data for April 2023 forward incorporate the 

effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment

level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. 

Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts.

For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see 

Benchmark in the Calculations section of the CES Handbook of Methods. 

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total 

nonfarm employment, January to December 2023 (in thousands)

2023

Levels Over-the-month Changes

As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published Difference

As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published Difference

January 154,773 155,007 -234 482 472 10

February 155,060 155,255 -195 287 248 39

March 155,206 155,472 -266 146 217 -71

April 155,484 155,689 -205 278 217 61

May 155,787 155,970 -183 303 281 22

June 156,027 156,075 -48 240 105 135

July 156,211 156,311 -100 184 236 -52

August 156,421 156,476 -55 210 165 45

September 156,667 156,738 -71 246 262 -16

October 156,832 156,843 -11 165 105 60

November 157,014 157,016 -2 182 173 9

December(p) 157,347 157,232 115 333 216 117

Footnotes

(p) Preliminary

To Table of Figures
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Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the 

survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees 

covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to 

report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. 

The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are 

tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) 

program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry 

Classification System (NAICS). About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope 

of the establishment survey is covered by UI and is available to the CES program via QCEW 

records.

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily 

records from the Railroad Retirement Board and U.S. Census Bureau data from County Business 

Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to 

as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make 

up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the 

March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and 

the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the 

establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often 

regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark 

revision—as is the case for this year’s benchmark revision. However, in years with historical 

reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark 

revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly 

reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two 

independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

To create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical 

sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months 

between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using 

a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error 

accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March 

benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-themonth sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birthdeath model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More 

information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in Benchmark in the Calculation

section of the CES Handbook of Methods. 

Seasonally adjusted estimates

BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and 

directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their 

revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. More information about 

seasonal adjustment of CES series is available on the CES Seasonal Adjustment webpage.
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Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2023 by 

major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is -266,000.

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 

2023 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title As Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 155,206 155,472 -266 -0.2

05-000000 Total private 132,600 132,907 -307 -0.2

06-000000 Goods-producing 21,508 21,501 7 (1)

07-000000 Service-providing 133,698 133,971 -273 -0.2

08-000000 Private service-providing 111,092 111,406 -314 -0.3

10-000000 Mining and logging 635 635 0 (1)

20-000000 Construction 7,941 7,890 51 0.6

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,932 12,976 -44 -0.3

31-000000 Durable goods 8,074 8,092 -18 -0.2

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,858 4,884 -26 -0.5

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 28,819 28,867 -48 -0.2

41-420000 Wholesale trade 6,096.2 6,047.9 48.3 0.8

42-000000 Retail trade 15,579.6 15,529.2 50.4 0.3

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 6,571.9 6,735.1 -163.2 -2.5

44-220000 Utilities 571.6 554.3 17.3 3

50-000000 Information 3,054 3,092 -38 -1.2

55-000000 Financial activities 9,150 9,095 55 0.6

60-000000 Professional and business services 22,797 22,924 -127 -0.6

65-000000 Private education and health 

services 25,030 25,072 -42 -0.2

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 16,447 16,518 -71 -0.4

80-000000 Other services 5,795 5,838 -43 -0.7

90-000000 Government 22,606 22,565 41 0.2

Footnotes 

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Not seasonally adjusted estimates

Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been 

seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not 

seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, 

prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described 

below.
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Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for March 2023 by major 

industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment 

is -187,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors,

March 2023 (in thousands)

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 154,253 154,440 -187 -0.1

05-000000 Total private 131,367 131,616 -249 -0.2

06-000000 Goods-producing 21,218 21,218 (1) (1)

07-000000 Service-providing 133,035 133,222 -187 -0.1

08-000000

Private serviceproviding 110,149 110,398 -249 -0.2

10-000000 Mining and logging 628 628 (1) (1)

20-000000 Construction 7,701 7,657 44 0.6

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,889 12,933 -44 -0.3

31-000000 Durable goods 8,054 8,077 -23 -0.3

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,835 4,856 -21 -0.4

40-000000

Trade, 

transportation, and 

utilities 28,553 28,588 -35 -0.1

41-420000 Wholesale trade 6,072.1 6,022.3 49.8 0.8

42-000000 Retail trade 15,390.8 15,348.2 42.6 0.3

43-000000

Transportation and 

warehousing 6,519.4 6,664.5 -145.1 -2.2

44-220000 Utilities 570.4 552.9 17.5 3.1

50-000000 Information 3,036 3,072 -36 -1.2

55-000000 Financial activities 9,094 9,039 55 0.6

60-000000

Professional and 

business services 22,552 22,665 -113 -0.5

65-000000

Private education 

and health services 25,133 25,179 -46 -0.2

70-000000

Leisure and 

hospitality 16,031 16,060 -29 -0.2

80-000000 Other services 5,750 5,795 -45 -0.8

90-000000 Government 22,886 22,824 62 0.3

Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables webpage.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and 

level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total 
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nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of -0.3 percent to 0.3

percent.

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking 

procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
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Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2013

to 2023 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Type 2013(1) 2014 2015(2) 2016 2017(3) 2018(4) 2019(5) 2020 2021 2022(6) 2023

00-000000 Total nonfarm Percent -0.1 (7) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7) 0.3 -0.1

Level -119 67 -172 -81 135 -16 -489 -121 -7 506 -187

05-000000 Total private Percent -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.2

Level -126 105 -232 -151 133 -104 -505 -184 -256 607 -249

10-000000 Mining and logging Percent -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4 -11.5 -3.1 (7)

Level -10 -16 -19 -22 -30 -8 -15 -27 -63 -18 (7)

20-000000 Construction Percent 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.1 (7) -0.6 0.9 0.6

Level 14 90 39 47 52 44 -4 2 -41 70 44

30-000000 Manufacturing Percent 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 (7) -0.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.3

Level 23 43 -12 58 15 -18 -4 -75 -42 22 -44

40-000000 Trade, transportation, 

and utilities

Percent -0.5 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1 0.1 -0.1

Level -131 -31 -5 -110 75 -77 -117 24 307 32 -35

41-420000(8) Wholesale trade Percent -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 1.7 0.8

Level -20.2 -45.4 -41.3 -66.6 -21.2 -54.4 -38.6 -48 -23.6 101.1 49.8

42-000000(8) Retail trade Percent -0.8 (7) -0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1 -0.5 0.4 -1.6 0.3

Level -110.3 5.5 -23.5 -118.2 15.4 -96.4 -150.8 -78.3 57.9 -252.2 42.6

43-000000(8) Transportation and 

warehousing

Percent 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 4.5 2.6 -2.2

Level 3.6 9.7 65.3 83.5 79.8 72.7 75.8 148.9 270.1 170.1 -145.1

44-220000(8) Utilities Percent -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.5 2.4 3.1

Level -4.6 -0.6 -4.7 -8.7 1 1.8 -4.1 1.1 2.8 13.3 17.5

50-000000 Information Percent -0.2 2.4 -1.6 -0.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 3 2.7 -1.2

Level -5 66 -44 -2 70 59 35 14 84 80 -36

55-000000 Financial activities Percent -0.1 0.2 -0.1 (7) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.7 1.1 0.6

Level -10 19 -9 -4 7 -12 68 25 -64 94 55

60-000000 Professional and 

business services

Percent (7) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 1 1 -0.5

Level 4 -147 -110 -125 -270 -72 -159 -123 218 230 -113

65-000000 Private education and 

health services 

Percent -0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 (7) -0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.2

Level -61 -16 -7 -83 70 5 -95 -47 125 -69 -46

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality Percent 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 (7) -1.1 0.2 -4.4 1.1 -0.2

Level 72 38 -45 102 126 -4 -170 31 -572 161 -29

80-000000 Other services Percent -0.4 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -3.9 0.1 -0.8

Level -22 59 -20 -12 18 -21 -44 -8 -208 5 -45

90-000000 Government Percent (7) -0.2 0.3 0.3 (7) 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 -0.5 0.3

Level 7 -38 60 70 2 88 16 63 249 -101 62
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Footnotes

(1) With the 2013 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the Quarterly Census of 

Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent of the CES universe scope (see 

Frame and sample selection under Design in the CES Handbook of Methods), incorporates updated industry assignments. In 

2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, one to funds, trusts, and other 

financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 466,000 in employment from private 

households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 

62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark 

year, on corresponding CES series. For more information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 

2013 News Release or the Special notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article. (2) With the 2015 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly and persons 

with disabilities back to January 2000. CES previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 benchmark; however, between 

the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment within NAICS 62412 for the state of 

California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 

27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally 

published March 2015 estimate level is -199,000 or -0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the 

decrease of 27,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the private education and health services supersector, this table 

displays March 2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information about this reconstruction, see the 

Reconstruction section of the 2015 CES Benchmark Article. (3) With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and 

armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in

total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. The 

difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table 

displays March 2017 data after accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the 

professional and business services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. 

For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 CES Benchmark Article. (4) With the 2018 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in 

about 336,000 employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moved into other series within the wholesale 

trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services major industry sectors. Affected 

basic-level series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of

a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 17,000 employment from the CES series other state government 

(90-922999) into services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic-level series were 

reconstructed from March 2018 back to January 2018. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction 

section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article. (5) With the 2019 benchmark, BLS reconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an error in rail 

transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000 in employment being double counted. The reconstruction removed 

the double-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and including total nonfarm, back to 

January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2019 estimate level is -505,000, 

or -0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For 

more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article. (6) With the 2022 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in 

about 68,000 in employment in electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) being moved into corporate, 

subsidiary, and regional managing offices (60-551114). Affected series were reconstructed for their entire history going back 

to January 1990. Additionally, the CES program found that some QCEW employment microdata submitted for services for the 

elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 624120) was erroneously reported for the first quarter of 2022. CES imputed the 

March 2022 level for this industry, and the new level was approximately 83,000 greater than the originally reported QCEW 

level. For more information, see the Reconstructions and Adjustments to population data sections in the 2022 CES Benchmark 

Article. (7) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent or fewer than 500 employees.

(8) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

To Table of Figures
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Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and 

women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are 

revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) 

level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. 

These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary 

estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing 

industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated 

solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New 

employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more 

information on indirectly estimated data types, see Derivative data in the Calculations section of 

the CES Handbook of Methods.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated 

data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types

Data Type Abbreviation

All employees AE

Production and nonsupervisory employees PE

Women employees WE

Average weekly hours of all employees AE AWH

Average hourly earnings of all employees AE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of all employees AE AWOH

Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWH

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWOH

To Table of Figures

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. 

AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings 

estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may 

alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may 

change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for 

major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry 

group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have 

hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their 

broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry 

sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2023 benchmark. At the total private 

level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and PE from the previously 
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published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents for AE and 9 cents 

for PE from the previously published level.

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the CES 

detailed industry tables webpage.
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Table 6. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings

estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 34.2 34.2 0.0 $33.15 $33.26 $0.11

06-000000 Goods-producing 39.8 39.8 0.0 33.40 33.41 0.01

08-000000 Private serviceproviding 33.1 33.1 0.0 33.09 33.22 0.13

10-000000 Mining and logging 45.5 45.5 0.0 37.27 37.27 0.00

20-000000 Construction 38.5 38.5 0.0 35.88 35.89 0.01

30-000000 Manufacturing 40.3 40.2 -0.1 31.78 31.78 0.00

31-000000 Durable goods 40.8 40.8 0.0 33.27 33.28 0.01

32-000000 Nondurable goods 39.4 39.4 0.0 29.21 29.20 -0.01

40-000000 Trade, transportation, 

and utilities 33.6 33.6 0.0 28.56 28.63 0.07

41-420000 Wholesale trade 38.5 38.5 0.0 36.20 36.16 -0.04

42-000000 Retail trade 29.7 29.7 0.0 23.64 23.64 0.00

43-000000 Transportation and 

warehousing 37.6 37.6 0.0 28.47 28.69 0.22

44-220000 Utilities 42.4 42.4 0.0 49.57 49.64 0.07

50-000000 Information 35.9 36.1 0.2 47.76 47.91 0.15

55-000000 Financial activities 37.2 37.2 0.0 42.68 42.65 -0.03

60-000000 Professional and 

business services 36.2 36.2 0.0 39.89 39.96 0.07

65-000000 Private education and 

health services 33.2 33.2 0.0 32.56 32.83 0.27

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 25.4 25.4 0.0 20.93 20.96 0.03

80-000000 Other services 32.2 32.1 -0.1 29.63 30.19 0.56

To Table of Figures
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Table 7. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee average weekly hours 

and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 33.6 33.6 0.0 $28.47 $28.56 $0.09

06-000000 Goods-producing 40.2 40.2 0.0 28.92 28.94 0.02

08-000000 Private service-providing 32.5 32.5 0.0 28.38 28.48 0.10

10-000000 Mining and logging 47.8 47.8 0.0 33.66 33.67 0.01

20-000000 Construction 39.0 39.0 0.0 33.53 33.54 0.01

30-000000 Manufacturing 40.6 40.6 0.0 25.91 25.91 0.0

31-000000 Durable goods 40.9 40.9 0.0 27.04 27.02 -0.02

32-000000 Nondurable goods 40.2 40.2 0.0 24.07 24.08 0.01

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and 

utilities 33.6 33.6 0.0 24.85 24.90 0.05

41-420000 Wholesale trade 38.5 38.5 0.0 29.96 29.94 -0.02

42-000000 Retail trade 30.0 30.0 0.0 20.26 20.27 0.01

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 37.1 37.1 0.0 27.20 27.38 0.18

44-220000 Utilities 42.6 42.6 0.0 43.77 43.78 0.01

50-000000 Information 35.6 35.7 0.1 38.76 38.92 0.16

55-000000 Financial activities 36.9 36.9 0.0 33.44 33.41 -0.03

60-000000 Professional and business 

services 36.0 36.0 0.0 33.78 33.81 0.03

65-000000 Private education and health 

services 32.5 32.4 -0.1 29.70 29.96 0.26

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 24.1 24.1 0.0 18.50 18.50 0.00

80-000000 Other services 31.1 31.1 0.0 25.40 25.94 0.54

To Table of Figures
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Net birth-death revisions

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various 

sources. Disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both data sources are subject to 

nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error 

and business birth and death modeling error. 

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level 

because each month, new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through 

the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its 

appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. 

These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only 

become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. 

After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and 

soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In 

practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at 

least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment 

from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The 

research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production 

timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model 

incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. 

The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series 

model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation 

from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in 

Business births and deaths in the Calculation section of the CES Handbook of Methods.

An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation 

follows.
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Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by 

comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during 

the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2022 to March 2023 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual 

net birth-death from April 2022 to March 2023 was approximately 330,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for 

the same period. 

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2022 to March 2023 

(in thousands)

Benchmark 

2023

2022 2023

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Total

Actual Net 

Birth-Death

455 202 50 236 89 -74 311 1 -32 -192 117 -31 1,132

Forecast Net 

Birth-Death

323 254 93 327 120 -153 511 21 -37 -144 176 -29 1,462

Difference 132 -52 -43 -91 -31 79 -200 -20 5 -48 -59 -2 -330

Cumulative 

Difference

132 80 37 -54 -85 -6 -206 -226 -221 -269 -328 -330

To Table of Figures

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2023 to December 2023, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based 

primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate 

information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors 

over the post-benchmark period. From April 2023 to December 2023, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,356,000 jobs, 

compared with 1,263,000 in the previously published April 2023 to December 2023 employment estimates.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 16 of 26

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Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2023 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cumulative

Total

10-000000 Mining and logging 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 5

20-000000 Construction 41 36 21 12 11 -2 27 -10 -17 119

30-000000 Manufacturing 3 9 4 2 5 0 10 2 1 36

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 17 29 10 36 21 2 74 17 6 212

41-420000(1) Wholesale trade -2 6 -4 5 2 -7 16 1 0 17

42-000000(1) Retail trade 16 15 9 20 11 3 34 2 -1 109

43-000000(1) Transportation and warehousing 3 8 5 10 8 6 24 14 7 85

44-220000(1) Utilities 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

50-000000 Information 10 6 1 7 5 -3 8 4 2 40

55-000000 Financial activities 14 4 -3 14 3 -11 38 1 10 70

60-000000 Professional and business services 126 41 -19 92 19 -32 134 7 -26 342

65-000000 Private education and health services 43 21 -24 43 19 -21 89 12 -15 167

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 96 88 84 81 21 -45 24 -26 -13 310

80-000000 Other services 18 9 6 7 5 -5 20 0 -5 55

Total private net birth-death forecast 368 244 81 295 110 -117 425 7 -57 1,356

Footnotes

(1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 17 of 26

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Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2024 first preliminary estimates on February 2, 2024, BLS

incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The 

following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES 

industries, which are based on NAICS 2022. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to 

be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar 

industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the 

Notice of Publication Changes webpage.

In addition to the annual sample review, CES series are sometimes reconstructed to avoid series 

breaks and to provide users with comparable time series suitable for economic analysis.

Reconstructed basic series are summed to aggregate levels using the normal CES aggregation 

methods (see the Aggregation procedures section in the CES Handbook of Methods), and, 

consequently, unadjusted aggregate employment series are subject to change from the detailed 

aggregate series to summary level aggregates within each the major industry sector. Hours and 

earnings series are subject to change from summary levels to major industry sector levels. 

Aggregate industries as well as component series used in indirect seasonal adjustment are also 

subject to change.

A list of currently published CES series is available on the CES Published Series webpage.

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes

NAICS 

Code

Previous New

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

33991,2 31-

339910

Jewelry and silverware

manufacturing 31-

339920

Jewelry, silverware, and sporting 

and athletic goods 

33991,2 manufacturing 31-

339920

Sporting and athletic goods 

manufacturing

32511,2,3,8 32-

325130

Petrochemical, industrial gas, 

synthetic dye, and pigment 

manufacturing 32-

325180

Petrochemical, industrial gas, 

synthetic dye, pigment, and 

other basic inorganic chemical 

32511,2,3,8 manufacturing 32-

325180

Other basic inorganic 

chemical manufacturing

711212,9 70-

711212 Racetracks 70-

711219

Racetracks and other spectator 

sports 711212,9 70-

711219 Other spectator sports

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 18 of 26

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To identify affected series more easily and because AE series are published at a more detailed 

industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and non-AE data 

types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for AE

only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued 

series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer 

published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are 

published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient 

sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with 

other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series 

were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for

AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 19 of 26

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Table 11. Discontinued AE series

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Next Highest Published

Industry

327211,2 31-327212 Flat and other pressed and blown 

glass and glassware manufacturing

Glass and glass product 

manufacturing (31-327200))

327213,5 31-327215

Glass product made of purchased 

glass and glass container 

manufacturing

Glass and glass product 

manufacturing (31-327200)

336211 31-336211 Motor vehicle body manufacturing Motor vehicle body and trailer 

manufacturing (31-336200)

336212,3,4 31-336214 Truck trailer, motor home, travel 

trailer, and camper manufacturing

Motor vehicle body and trailer 

manufacturing (31-336200)

326113 32-326113

Unlaminated plastics film and 

sheet, except packaging, 

manufacturing

Plastics packaging materials 

and unlaminated film and sheet 

manufacturing (32-326110)

48531 43-485310 Taxi and ridesharing services Taxi and limousine service (43-

485300)

48532 43-485320 Limousine service Taxi and limousine service (43-

485300)

48831,3,9 43-488390

Port and harbor operations, 

navigational services to shipping, 

and other support activities for 

water transportation

Support activities for water 

transportation (43-488300)

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 20 of 26

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Table 12. Collapsed AE series

Previous New

NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code

CES Industry 

Title

NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code

CES Industry 

Title

33991 31-339910 Jewelry and silverware 

manufacturing

33991,2 31-339920

Jewelry, 

silverware, and 

sporting and 

athletic goods 

manufacturing

33992 31-339920 Sporting and athletic 

goods manufacturing

32511,2,3 32-325130

Petrochemical, 

industrial gas, 

synthetic dye, and 

pigment 

manufacturing 32511,2,3,8 32-325180

Petrochemical, 

industrial gas, 

synthetic dye, 

pigment, and other 

basic inorganic 

chemical 

manufacturing

32518 32-325180

Other basic inorganic 

chemical 

manufacturing

711212 70-711212 Racetracks

711212,9 70-711219

Racetracks and 

other spectator 

sports

711219 70-711219 Other spectator sports

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 21 of 26

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Table 13. Discontinued non-AE series

NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

23834 20-

238340

Tile and terrazzo 

contractors

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Building finishing contractors 

(20-238300)

23839 20-

238390

Other building 

finishing contractors

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Building finishing contractors 

(20-238300)

3212 31-

321200

Veneer, plywood, and 

engineered wood 

product 

manufacturing

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Wood product manufacturing 

(31-321000)

3219 31-

321900

Other wood product 

manufacturing

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE, PE AWOH

Wood product manufacturing 

(31-321000)

3321 31-

332100 Forging and stamping PE AWOH Fabricated metal product manufacturing (31-332000)

33271 31-

332710 Machine shops PE AWOH

Machine shops; turned product; 

and screw, nut, and bolt 

manufacturing (31-332700)

33272 31-

332720

Turned product and 

screw, nut, and bolt 

manufacturing

PE AWOH

Machine shops; turned product; 

and screw, nut, and bolt 

manufacturing (31-332700)

332811,2 31-

332812

Metal heat treating, 

coating, engraving 

(except jewelry and 

silverware), and 

allied services to 

manufacturers

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE, PE AWOH

Coating, engraving, heat 

treating, and allied activities 

(31-332800)

332813 31-

332813

Electroplating, 

plating, polishing, 

anodizing, and 

coloring

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE, PE AWOH

Coating, engraving, heat 

treating, and allied activities 

(31-332800)

3334 31-

333400

Ventilation, heating, 

air-conditioning, and 

commercial 

refrigeration 

equipment 

manufacturing

AE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-

333000)

3336 31-

333600

Engine, turbine, and 

power transmission 

equipment 

manufacturing

PE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-

333000)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 22 of 26

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NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

3339 31-

333900

Other general 

purpose machinery 

manufacturing

AE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-

333000)

334416,7,9 31-

334419

Capacitor, resistor, 

coil, transformer, 

other inductor, 

electronic connector, 

and other electronic 

component 

manufacturing

PE AWOH

Semiconductor and other 

electronic component 

manufacturing (31-334400)

311615 32-

311615 Poultry processing

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE, AE AWOH, 

PE AWOH

Animal slaughtering and 

processing (32-311600)

31181 32-

311810

Bread and bakery 

product 

manufacturing

AE AWH, AE 

AHE, WE

Bakeries and tortilla 

manufacturing (32-311800)

311811 32-

311811 Retail bakeries AE AWH, AE AHE, WE

Bakeries and tortilla 

manufacturing (32-311800)

31182,3 32-

311830

Cookie, cracker, 

pasta, and tortilla 

manufacturing

AE AWH, AE 

AHE, WE

Bakeries and tortilla 

manufacturing (32-311800)

315 32-

315000

Apparel 

manufacturing PE AWOH Nondurable goods (32-000000)

3251 32-

325100

Basic chemical 

manufacturing PE AWOH Chemical manufacturing (32-325000)

3252 32-

325200

Resin, synthetic 

rubber, and artificial 

and synthetic fibers 

and filaments 

manufacturing

WE Chemical manufacturing (32-

325000)

3256 32-

325600

Soap, cleaning 

compound, and toilet 

preparation 

manufacturing

AE AWOH, PE 

AWOH

Chemical manufacturing (32-

325000)

32614,5 32-

326150

Polystyrene, 

urethane, and other 

foam product 

manufacturing

AE AWH, AE 

AHE, PE, PE 

AWH, PE AHE, 

WE, AE AWOH

Plastics product manufacturing 

(32-326100)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 23 of 26

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NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

42332 41-

423320

Brick, stone, and 

related construction 

material merchant 

wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Lumber and other construction 

materials merchant wholesalers 

(41-423300)

42333,9 41-

423390

Roofing, siding, 

insulation, and other 

construction material 

merchant wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Lumber and other construction 

materials merchant wholesalers 

(41-423300)

42342 41-

423420

Office equipment 

merchant wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Professional and commercial 

equipment and supplies 

merchant wholesalers (41-

423400)

42341,4,6,9 41-

423490

Ophthalmic goods 

and photographic, 

commercial, and 

professional 

equipment and 

supplies merchant 

wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Professional and commercial 

equipment and supplies 

merchant wholesalers (41-

423400)

42394 41-

423940

Jewelry, watch, 

precious stone, and 

precious metal 

merchant wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Miscellaneous durable goods 

merchant wholesalers (41-

423900

42392,9 41-

423990

Toy and hobby goods 

and supplies and 

other miscellaneous 

durable goods 

merchant wholesalers

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Miscellaneous durable goods 

merchant wholesalers (41-

423900)

42411,2 41-

424120

Printing and writing 

paper, stationery, and 

office supplies 

merchant wholesalers

WE

Paper and paper product 

merchant wholesalers (41-

424100)

42413 41-

424130

Industrial and 

personal service 

paper merchant 

wholesalers

WE

Paper and paper product 

merchant wholesalers (41-

424100)

4242 41-

424200

Drugs and druggists' 

sundries merchant 

wholesalers

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Merchant wholesalers, 

nondurable goods (41-424000)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 24 of 26

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NAICS 

Code

CES 

Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued 

From Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

4245 41-

424500

Farm product raw 

material merchant 

wholesalers

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Merchant wholesalers, 

nondurable goods (41-424000)

53241 55-

532410

Construction, 

transportation, 

mining, and forestry 

machinery and 

equipment rental and 

leasing

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Commercial and industrial 

machinery and equipment rental 

and leasing (55-532400)

53242,9 55-

532490

Office, commercial, 

and industrial 

machinery and 

equipment rental and 

leasing

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Commercial and industrial 

machinery and equipment rental 

and leasing (55-532400)

56174 60-

561740

Carpet and upholstery 

cleaning services

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Services to buildings and 

dwellings (60-561700)

56179 60-

561790

Other services to 

buildings and 

dwellings

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Services to buildings and 

dwellings (60-561700)

71395 70-

713950 Bowling centers PE, PE AWH, PE AHE

Amusement, gambling, and 

recreation industries (70-

713000)

81231 80-

812310

Coin-operated 

laundries and 

drycleaners

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Drycleaning and laundry 

services (80-812300)

81233 80-

812330

Linen and uniform 

supply

AE AWH, AE 

AHE

Drycleaning and laundry 

services (80-812300)

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 25 of 26

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Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings 

data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally 

adjusted data. The data can be accessed from the CES National Databases webpage. 

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted 

basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data Information

webpage. CES vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark 

revision.

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables webpage.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 26 of 26

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Table of figures

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total 

nonfarm employment, January to December 2023 (in thousands) .................................. 3

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2023 

(in thousands) ........................................................................................................................ 5

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, 

March 2023 (in thousands) ................................................................................................... 6

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and 

estimates by industry supersector, March 2013 to 2023 (in thousands) .......................... 8

Table 5. Directly estimated data types ...................................................................................... 10

Table 6. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours 

and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors .................................... 12

Table 7. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory 

employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major 

industry sectors ................................................................................................................... 13

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private 

employment, April 2022 to March 2023 (in thousands) .................................................. 15

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2023 (in 

thousands) ............................................................................................................................ 16

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes ....................................................... 17

Table 11. Discontinued AE series .............................................................................................. 19

Table 12. Collapsed AE series .................................................................................................... 20

Table 13. Discontinued non-AE series ...................................................................................... 21

Last Modified Date: February 2, 2024 

Rokeya Khan and Thomas Woolley, Economists 

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Division of Current Employment Statistics – National 

PSB Suite 4175, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212-0001

www.bls.gov/CES |Telephone: 1-202-691-6555 | Email: Contact CES