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CES National Benchmark Article (HTML)

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to 

Incorporate March 2020 Benchmarks

Authors: Victoria Battista and Shane Haley

About the authors:

Victoria Battista and Shane Haley are economists in the Division of Current Employment 

Statistics–National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor 

Statistics. 

Telephone: (202) 691-6555

Email: Contact CES
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Table of Contents

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2020 Benchmarks1

Table of Contents............................................................................................................................ 2

Summary of the revisions............................................................................................................... 3

Overview......................................................................................................................................... 4

Seasonally adjusted revisions ......................................................................................................... 5

Not seasonally adjusted revisions................................................................................................... 6

Benchmark revision effects for other data types............................................................................. 9

Revisions to net birth-death .......................................................................................................... 13

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death......................................................................................... 14

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period ...................................................... 14

Net birth-death changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic........................................................ 16

QCEW imputation ........................................................................................................................ 18

Changes to the CES published series............................................................................................ 19

Small domain model updates.................................................................................................... 19

Series changes due to annual sample review............................................................................ 19

Availability of revised data........................................................................................................... 22

Table of figures............................................................................................................................. 23

Tables........................................................................................................................................ 23

Exhibits ..................................................................................................................................... 23
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Summary of the revisions 

With the release of January 2021 data on February 5, 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 

introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the 

Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. 

The March 2020 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm 

employment is 150,840,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 

149,952,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2020, total 

nonfarm employment had a revision of −250,000 or −0.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted 

total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −121,000 or −0.1 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for 

January 2020 through December 2020. The revised data for April 2020 forward incorporate the 

effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment

level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. 

Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts.

For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES 

Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b. 

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total 

nonfarm employment, January to December 2020 (in thousands)

2020

Levels Over-the-month Changes

As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Difference As 

Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Difference

January 152,234 152,212 22 315 214 101

February 152,523 152,463 60 289 251 38

March 150,840 151,090 -250 -1,683 -1,373 -310

April 130,161 130,303 -142 -20,679 -20,787 108

May 132,994 133,028 -34 2,833 2,725 108

June 137,840 137,809 31 4,846 4,781 65

July 139,566 139,570 -4 1,726 1,761 -35

August 141,149 141,063 86 1,583 1,493 90

September 141,865 141,774 91 716 711 5

October 142,545 142,428 117 680 654 26

November 142,809 142,764 45 264 336 -72

December(p) 142,582 142,624 -42 -227 -140 -87

Footnotes

(p) Preliminary

To Table of Figures
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Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the 

survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees 

covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to 

report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. 

About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is 

covered by UI. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information 

agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and 

Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North 

American Industry Classification System (NAICS). 

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily 

records from the Railroad Retirement Board and Census Bureau data from County Business 

Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to 

as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make 

up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the 

March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and 

the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the 

establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often 

regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark 

revision, but in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to 

benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark 

level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the 

difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error 

sources.

In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and

historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for 

the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are 

adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation 

error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the 

March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived overthe-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birthdeath model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More 

information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the 

CES Technical Notes and in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, “Benchmarking the 

Current Employment Statistics National Estimates.”
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Seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2020 by 

major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is

−250,000.

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 

2020 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title As Revised

As 

Previously 

Published

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 150,840 151,090 -250 -0.2

05-000000 Total private 128,066 128,362 -296 -0.2

06-000000 Goods-producing 20,949 21,086 -137 -0.7

07-000000 Service-providing 129,891 130,004 -113 -0.1

08-000000 Private service-providing 107,117 107,276 -159 -0.1

10-000000 Mining and logging 674 706 -32 -4.7

20-000000 Construction 7,557 7,574 -17 -0.2

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,718 12,806 -88 -0.7

31-000000 Durable goods 7,961 8,031 -70 -0.9

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,757 4,775 -18 -0.4

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,729 27,723 6 (1)

41-420000 Wholesale trade 5,876.6 5,922.2 -45.6 -0.8

42-000000 Retail trade 15,483.6 15,586.6 -103.0 -0.7

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 5,822.1 5,668.2 153.9 2.6

44-220000 Utilities 547.0 545.9 1.1 0.2

50-000000 Information 2,898 2,888 10 0.3

55-000000 Financial activities 8,850 8,827 23 0.3

60-000000 Professional and business services 21,318 21,456 -138 -0.6

65-000000 Education and health services 24,347 24,408 -61 -0.3

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 16,133 16,124 9 0.1

80-000000 Other services 5,842 5,850 -8 -0.1

90-000000 Government 22,774 22,728 46 0.2

Footnotes 

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Typically, 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised with each CES annual benchmark. 

However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans.

For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the 

Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.

For information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see 

the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.
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Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2020, not seasonally adjusted, by major 

industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is 

−121,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors,

March 2020 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate

Differences

Amount Percent

00-000000 Total nonfarm 149,952 150,073 -121 -0.1

05-000000 Total private 126,825 127,009 -184 -0.1

06-000000 Goods-producing 20,638 20,738 -100 -0.5

07-000000 Service-providing 129,314 129,335 -21 (1)

08-000000 Private service-providing 106,187 106,271 -84 -0.1

10-000000 Mining and logging 669 696 -27 -4.0

20-000000 Construction 7,297 7,295 2 (1)

30-000000 Manufacturing 12,672 12,747 -75 -0.6

31-000000 Durable goods 7,949 8,013 -64 -0.8

32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,723 4,734 -11 -0.2

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 27,423 27,399 24 0.1

41-420000 Wholesale trade 5,847.9 5,895.9 -48 -0.8

42-000000 Retail trade 15,286.8 15,365.1 -78.3 -0.5

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 5,741.7 5,592.8 148.9 2.6

44-220000 Utilities 546.5 545.4 1.1 0.2

50-000000 Information 2,888 2,874 14 0.5

55-000000 Financial activities 8,805 8,780 25 0.3

60-000000 Professional and business services 21,050 21,173 -123 -0.6

65-000000 Education and health services 24,471 24,518 -47 -0.2

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 15,745 15,714 31 0.2

80-000000 Other services 5,805 5,813 -8 -0.1

90-000000 Government 23,127 23,064 63 0.3

Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Benchmarks for more detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmarttables.htm.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and 

level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total 

nonfarm level has averaged 0.2 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3

percent.

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking 

procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
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Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2010

to 2020 (in thousands)

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Type 2010(1) 2011(2) 2012 2013(3) 2014 2015(4) 2016 2017(5) 2018(6) 2019(7) 2020

00-000000 Total nonfarm Percent -0.3 0.1 0.3 -0.1 (8) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (8) -0.3 -0.1

Level -378 162 424 -119 67 -172 -81 135 -16 -489 -121

05-000000 Total private Percent -0.4 0.1 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1

Level -391 134 481 -126 105 -232 -151 133 -104 -505 -184

10-000000 Mining and logging Percent -3 -0.4 1.6 -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4

Level -20 -3 13 -10 -16 -19 -22 -30 -8 -15 -27

20-000000 Construction Percent -1.3 -0.5 1.8 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.1 (8)

Level -67 -26 93 14 90 39 47 52 44 -4 2

30-000000 Manufacturing Percent -1 0.1 -0.2 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 (8) -0.6

Level -119 9 -25 23 43 -12 58 15 -18 -4 -75

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and 

utilities

Percent -0.6 0.4 0.6 -0.5 -0.1 (8) -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1

Level -143 95 145 -131 -31 -5 -110 75 -77 -117 24

41-420000(9) Wholesale trade Percent -2.3 -0.2 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8

Level -124.5 -13.1 45.3 -20.2 -45.4 -41.3 -66.6 -21.2 -54.4 -38.6 -48.0

42-000000(9) Retail trade Percent -0.1 0.6 0.5 -0.8 (8) -0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1.0 -0.5

Level -18.4 83.8 78.9 -110.3 5.5 -23.5 -118.2 15.4 -96.4 -150.8 -78.3

43-000000(9) Transportation and 

warehousing

Percent 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.6

Level 3.1 22.4 29.4 3.6 9.7 65.3 83.5 79.8 72.7 75.8 148.9

44-220000(9) Utilities Percent -0.6 0.5 -1.5 -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2

Level -3.4 2.8 -8.5 -4.6 -0.6 -4.7 -8.7 1.0 1.8 -4.1 1.1

50-000000 Information Percent -0.4 -0.4 1.8 -0.2 2.4 -1.6 -0.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5

Level -11 -12 47 -5 66 -44 -2 70 59 35 14

55-000000 Financial activities Percent 0.4 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.2 -0.1 (8) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.3

Level 34 69 45 -10 19 -9 -4 7 -12 68 25

60-000000 Professional and business 

services

Percent (8) 0.7 (8) (8) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6

Level -3 125 2 4 -147 -110 -125 -270 -72 -159 -123

65-000000 Education and health services Percent (8) -0.5 (8) -0.3 -0.1 (8) -0.4 0.3 (8) -0.4 -0.2

Level 7 -108 -2 -61 -16 -7 -83 70 5 -95 -47

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality Percent -0.6 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 (8) -1.1 0.2

Level -80 93 104 72 38 -45 102 126 -4 -170 31

80-000000 Other services Percent 0.2 -2 1.1 -0.4 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1

Level 11 -108 59 -22 59 -20 -12 18 -21 -44 -8

90-000000 Government Percent 0.1 0.1 -0.3 (8) -0.2 0.3 0.3 (8) 0.4 0.1 0.3

Level 13 28 -57 7 -38 60 70 2 88 16 63
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Footnotes

(1) With the 2010 benchmark, BLS reconstructed historical national employment levels of all employees for other 

federal government (91-999900) to reflect corrections to initial counts for temporary and intermittent workers for 

the 2010 Census. The reconstructions resulted in about 4,000 in employment being added to other federal 

government. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2010 CES Benchmark Article. (2) A review of industries for the possible presence of noncovered employment yielded 13 additional industries. As a 

result of including these industries, employment in the amount of 95,000 was added to the benchmark nonfarm 

level. For more information, see the Changes to noncovered employment section in the 2011 CES Benchmark 

Article. (3) With the 2013 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the 

Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent 

of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry 

assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, 

one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 

466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the 

elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, 

beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more 

information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the Special 

notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article. (4) With the 2015 benchmark, BLS reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly 

and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. BLS previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 

benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment 

within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in 

total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015

estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is 

−199,000 or −0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from 

the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the education and health services supersector, this table displays March 

2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in

the 2015 CES Benchmark Article. (5) With the 2017 benchmark, BLS reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and 

patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the 

reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the 

originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally 

published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after 

accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business 

services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more 

information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 CES Benchmark Article. (6) With the 2018 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the 

QCEW resulted in about 336,000 in employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moving into 

other series within the wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business 

services major industry sectors. Affected basic series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to 

January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 

17,000 in employment from the CES series other state government (90-922999) into services for the elderly and 

persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic series were reconstructed from March 2018 back to January 

2018. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article. (7) With the 2019 benchmark, BLS reconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an

error in rail transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000 in employment being double counted. The 

reconstruction removed the doubled-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and 

including total nonfarm, back to January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally 

published March 2019 estimate level is −505,000, or −0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after 

accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For more information, see the Reconstructions 

section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article. (8) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. 

(9) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

 To Table of Figures
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Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and 

women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are 

revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) 

level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. 

These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary 

estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing 

industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated 

solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New 

employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more 

information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES 

Technical Notes.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated 

data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types

Data Type Abbreviation

All employees AE

Production and nonsupervisory employees PE

Women employees WE

Average weekly hours of all employees AE AWH

Average hourly earnings of all employees AE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of all employees AE AWOH

Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWH

Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AHE

Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWOH

To Table of Figures

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. 

AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings 

estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may 

alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may 

change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for 

major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry 

group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have 

hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their 

broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry 

sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2020 benchmark. At the total private 
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level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE or PE from the previously 

published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents for AE and increased 

by 4 cents for PE from the previously published level.

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries can be found at

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.
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Table 6. Effect of March 2020 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings

estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 34.3 34.3 0.0 $28.88 $28.91 $0.03

06-000000 Goods-producing 39.9 39.9 0.0 29.66 29.66 0.00

08-000000 Private service-providing 33.2 33.2 0.0 28.70 28.73 0.03

10-000000 Mining and logging 45.3 45.4 0.1 35.21 34.89 -0.32

20-000000 Construction 38.6 38.6 0.0 31.33 31.35 0.02

30-000000 Manufacturing 40.4 40.4 0.0 28.41 28.42 0.01

31-000000 Durable goods 40.7 40.7 0.0 29.75 29.76 0.01

32-000000 Nondurable goods 39.8 39.8 0.0 26.10 26.11 0.01

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 34.2 34.2 0.0 24.86 24.84 -0.02

41-420000 Wholesale trade 39.1 39.1 0.0 31.95 31.93 -0.02

42-000000 Retail trade 30.7 30.7 0.0 20.35 20.36 0.01

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 37.8 37.8 0.0 25.26 25.16 -0.10

44-220000 Utilities 42.1 42.1 0.0 42.84 42.82 -0.02

50-000000 Information 36.7 36.8 0.1 43.57 43.66 0.09

55-000000 Financial activities 38.2 38.2 0.0 37.20 37.20 0.00

60-000000 Professional and business services 36.4 36.4 0.0 34.92 34.94 0.02

65-000000 Education and health services 33.0 33.0 0.0 27.94 28.06 0.12

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 24.4 24.4 0.0 16.90 16.93 0.03

80-000000 Other services 31.7 31.6 -0.1 25.99 26.18 0.19

To Table of Figures
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Table 7. Effect of March 2020 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee average weekly hours 

and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings

Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000 Total private 33.5 33.5 0.0 $24.23 $24.27 $0.04

06-000000 Goods-producing 40.5 40.5 0.0 25.13 25.14 0.01

08-000000 Private service-providing 32.3 32.3 0.0 24.05 24.09 0.04

10-000000 Mining and logging 45.8 45.9 0.1 31.09 30.99 -0.10

20-000000 Construction 38.9 38.9 0.0 28.95 28.97 0.02

30-000000 Manufacturing 41.1 41.1 0.0 22.57 22.58 0.01

31-000000 Durable goods 41.3 41.3 0.0 23.55 23.56 0.01

32-000000 Nondurable goods 40.8 40.8 0.0 20.97 20.97 0.00

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 33.9 34.0 0.1 21.05 21.04 -0.01

41-420000 Wholesale trade 38.7 38.7 0.0 26.49 26.47 -0.02

42-000000 Retail trade 30.5 30.5 0.0 17.04 17.04 0.00

43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 37.7 37.7 0.0 22.70 22.60 -0.10

44-220000 Utilities 42.5 42.5 0.0 37.87 37.85 -0.02

50-000000 Information 35.8 35.9 0.1 34.86 34.98 0.12

55-000000 Financial activities 37.3 37.3 0.0 28.66 28.67 0.01

60-000000 Professional and business services 35.7 35.7 0.0 28.90 28.92 0.02

65-000000 Education and health services 32.2 32.2 0.0 24.88 24.98 0.10

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 23.1 23.1 0.0 14.69 14.71 0.02

80-000000 Other services 30.7 30.6 -0.1 22.14 22.34 0.20

To Table of Figures
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Revisions to net birth-death

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various 

sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both are subject to nonresponse 

and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business 

birth-death modeling error. An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those 

errors on CES estimation follows.

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level 

because each month new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through 

the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its 

appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. 

These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only 

become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. 

After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and 

soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In 

practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at 

least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment 

from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The 

research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production 

timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model 

incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. 

The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series 

model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation 

from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the 

Birth-Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes.
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Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of 

births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates. Most recently, the data from April 

2019 to March 2020 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2019 to March 2020 was approximately 

242,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period. 

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2019 to March 2020

(in thousands)

Benchmark 2020 2019 2020

Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Total

Actual Net BirthDeath 286 220 71 234 117 -118 340 27 -58 -140 123 -278 824

Forecast Net 

Birth-Death 282 209 109 186 95 -75 304 -16 -52 -145 143 26 1,066

Difference 4 11 -38 48 22 -43 36 43 -6 5 -20 -304 -242

Cumulative 

Difference 4 15 -23 25 47 4 40 83 77 82 62 -242

To Table of Figures

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2020 to December 2020, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based 

primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate 

information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors 

over the post-benchmark period. From April 2020 to December 2020, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 796,000 jobs, 

compared with 789,000 in the previously published April 2020 to December 2020 employment estimates.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 15 of 23

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Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2020 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Cumulative

Total

10-000000 Mining and logging -3 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 -1

20-000000 Construction -41 73 31 9 10 4 29 -9 -11 95

30-000000 Manufacturing -37 14 21 0 4 4 6 3 1 16

40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities -72 25 20 19 18 17 49 10 10 96

41-420000(1) Wholesale trade -21 3 -7 -2 -4 0 9 2 2 -18

42-000000(1) Retail trade -28 18 18 12 12 8 23 -4 4 63

43-000000(1) Transportation and warehousing -23 4 9 8 10 9 17 12 4 50

44-220000(1) Utilities 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

50-000000 Information 3 4 -1 6 4 -1 9 4 -1 27

55-000000 Financial activities -11 11 -1 10 11 -2 30 3 9 60

60-000000 Professional and business services -171 32 17 78 43 -33 134 4 31 135

65-000000 Education and health services -24 24 -14 40 21 -7 70 8 -14 104

70-000000 Leisure and hospitality -105 124 154 89 25 -43 22 -23 -4 239

80-000000 Other services -9 12 8 2 6 -3 13 -1 -3 25

Total private net birth-death forecast -470 319 235 254 142 -64 363 -1 18 796

Footnotes

(1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

 To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 16 of 23

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Net birth-death changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Current estimates of not seasonally adjusted employment include both a sample-based

component and a model-based component. The model-based portion, called the net birth-death 

forecast, is intended to account for businesses that have closed or opened since the sample was 

initially drawn. While this model performs well in times of relative stability, it has not 

traditionally included a mechanism to account for rapid changes in the most recent months of 

employment estimates. 

In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created a severe economic shock to the global 

economy, resulting in massive job losses across the United States. This widespread disruption to 

labor markets and the potential impact to the birth-death model prompted BLS to revisit research 

conducted after the Great Recession (2007-09) and incorporate new ideas to account for changes 

in the number of business openings and closings. Two areas of research were implemented to 

improve the accuracy of the birth-death model in the CES estimates. These adjustments better 

reflect the net effect of the contribution of business births and deaths to the estimates. These two 

methodological changes, one to adjust each of the two steps in the birth-death model, are the 

following:

• A portion of both reported zero employment and returns from zero in the current 

month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that 

business births and deaths do not offset.

• Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to 

better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.

First, a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero 

employment in each month were used to adjust the weighted contribution of each report used in 

the calculation of the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports 

with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To 

account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment and reports returning from 

zero employment, BLS calculated the likelihood that either a reported zero or a return from zero 

exceeded what would be expected for the month. These "excess declines to zero" and "excess 

returns from zero" (collectively called excess reported zeroes) partially account for drops in 

employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data 

occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More 

specifically, "excess declines to zero" were used in March final and subsequent months' first 

preliminary, second preliminary, and final estimates. "Excess returns from zero" were used in 

first, second, and final estimates from May to the present. 

Second, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for 

using sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally 

modeled using an ARIMA based on over-the-month changes of 5 years of historical birth-death 

residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only 

historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed 

due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included 

in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, 
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 17 of 23

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known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector 

sample link was used as a regressor for the basic-level industry forecasts only within that sector.

The use of sample links as regression variables in the model initially accounted for a difference 

of –174,000 in the net birth-death forecasts from April 2020 to December 2020, with a range 

from –799,000 to 222,000. Exhibit 1 below outlines monthly differences due to the inclusion of 

the sample link regressor.

Exhibit 1. Preliminary and revised net birth-death forecasts for total private with and without 

regressor adjustments, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

2020

Preliminary Forecast Revised Forecast

With 

Adjustment

Without 

Adjustment Difference

With 

Adjustment

Without 

Adjustment Difference

April -553 246 -799 -470 282 -752

May 345 207 138 319 203 116

June 295 73 222 235 68 167

July 241 193 48 254 211 43

August 154 104 50 142 95 47

September -62 -99 37 -64 -96 32

October 344 293 51 363 313 50

November 6 2 4 -1 0 -1

December 19 -56 75 18 -48 66

Total 789 963 -174 796 1,028 -232

To Table of Figures

The effect of these adjustments to CES estimates of employment reflect the pronounced impact 

of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exhibit 2 illustrates the difference at the total private level between 

the published CES estimates that do use these two adjustments and a simulated CES series 

calculated without using either adjustment. The total private benchmark revision amount applied 

to March 2020 was –184,000. Without these adjustments to the birth-death model, the 

benchmark revision amount would have been 385,000 lower, or –569,000.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 18 of 23

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Exhibit 2. Effects of adjusted net birth-death and use of reported zeroes on total private 

employment before benchmarking, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

2020

Total Private Employment 

with Adjustments

Total Private Employment 

without Adjustments Difference

March 127,009(1) 127,394 -385

April 108,158 111,786 -3,628

May 111,865 114,768 -2,903

June 117,309 119,280 -1,972

July 118,805 120,514 -1,708

August 119,717 121,313 -1,596

September 120,110 121,643 -1,533

October 121,571 123,024 -1,453

November 122,161 123,593 -1,433

December 122,026 123,418 -1,392

Footnotes

(1) Net birth-death forecasts for March were not adjusted to incorporate the sector sample link regressors. 

However, adjustments for excess reported zeroes were included in the estimates for March.

To Table of Figures

BLS continues to use sample links that account for excess reported zeroes and adjusted net birthdeath forecasts in monthly employment estimates. Research is being done on a monthly basis 

into when to return to normal estimation. Several factors are being monitored, including 

reverting to expected proportions of units that newly report zero or return from zero in the 

current month, resumption of previous patterns in the birth-death forecasts, and some 

combination of the two. 

QCEW imputation

Every quarter, the QCEW program imputes employment for UI accounts where reports were not 

received or were received but contained only wage information and no employment data. 

Typically, only a small concentration of worksites and employment are imputed. In the 

November 2020 QCEW news release of second quarter 2020 data and second published version 

of first quarter 2020 data, BLS implemented improvements to QCEW imputation methodology. 

Improvements to the QCEW imputation methodology are described in more detail at 

www.bls.gov/cew/additional-resources/imputation-methodology.htm. 

Changes in the QCEW imputation methodology had little effect on the CES-National March 

2020 benchmark. The total effect of the new imputation methodology on the QCEW portion of 

the employment population count was 0.02 percent.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 19 of 23

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Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2021 first preliminary estimates on February 5, 2021, BLS

incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

Small domain model updates

The CES small domain model is a weighted least squares model with two employment inputs: 

(1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and (2) an ARIMA projection 

based on trend from 10 years of historical QCEW data. CES-National began using the small 

domain model in 2007. For more information about it, see the Small Domain Model section of 

the CES Technical Notes.

Two series estimated using the small domain model have been discontinued along with their 

component industries: direct health and medical insurance carriers (55-524114) and recreational 

and vacation camps (70-721214).

Two other series have received adequate sample and have stopped using the small domain

model: other technical consulting services (60-541690) and remediation services (60-562910). 

These series are now being estimated using the standard CES weighted-link-relative technique.

BLS will continue to use the model for estimates in lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets (55-

533000) and tax preparation services (60-541213).

Series changes due to annual sample review

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The 

following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES 

industries, which are based on NAICS 2017. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to 

be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar 

industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available at 

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.

A list of currently published CES series is available at 

www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseriespub.htm.

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes

NAICS 

Code

Previous New

CES Industry 

Code

CES Industry 

Title

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

56145,9 60-561490 Other business 

support services 60-561490 Other business support services, including credit bureaus

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 20 of 23

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In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more 

detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown for AE and non-AE data 

types. The first two tables in this section reference the AE data type and the third table references

all non-AE data types. The tables display an AE collapse and discontinued series for AE and 

non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the 

data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for 

which the data types noted are no longer published because the industry no longer has sufficient 

sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with 

other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series 

were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for

AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.

Table 11. Discontinued all employees series

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title Next Highest Published Industry

332721 31-332721 Precision turned products Turned products and screws, nuts, and 

bolts (31-332720)

332722 31-332722 Bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, 

and washers

Turned products and screws, nuts, and 

bolts (31-332720)

3152 32-315200 Cut and sew apparel Apparel (32-315000)

31521 32-315210 Cut and sew apparel 

contractors Apparel (32-315000)

3151,9 32-315900 All other apparel 

manufacturing Apparel (32-315000)

524113 55-524113 Direct life insurance 

carriers

Direct life and health insurance carriers 

(55-524110)

524114 55-524114 Direct health and medical 

insurance carriers

Direct life and health insurance carriers 

(55-524110)

721211 70-721211 RV parks and 

campgrounds

RV parks and recreational camps (70-

721200)

721214 70-721214 Recreational and vacation 

camps

RV parks and recreational camps (70-

721200)

To Table of Figures

Table 12. Collapsed all employees series

Previous New

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code

CES Industry 

Title

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

56145 60-561450 Credit bureaus

56145,9 60-561490

Other business support 

services, including credit 

bureaus 56149 60-561490 Other business 

support services

To Table of Figures
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 21 of 23

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Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees

NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued From 

Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

3334 31-333400 HVAC and commercial 

refrigeration equipment PE AWOH Machinery (31-333000)

33391 31-333910 Pumps and compressors WE Other general purpose 

machinery (31-333900)

33399 31-333990 All other general 

purpose machinery WE Other general purpose machinery (31-333900)

336211 31-336211 Motor vehicle bodies

AE AWH, AE 

AHE, AE AWOH, 

WE

Motor vehicle bodies 

and trailers (31-336200)

33637 31-336370 Motor vehicle metal 

stamping AE AWH, AE AHE Motor vehicle parts (31-336300)

339116 31-339116 Dental laboratories PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Medical equipment and 

supplies (31-339100)

3132 32-313200 Fabric mills WE Textile mills (32-

313000)

3141 32-314100 Textile furnishings 

mills WE Textile product mills (32-314000)

3149 32-314900 Other textile product 

mills WE Textile product mills (32-314000)

3261 32-326100 Plastics products PE AWOH Plastics and rubber 

products (32-326000)

32611 32-326110

Plastics packaging 

materials, film, and 

sheet

PE AWOH Plastics and rubber 

products (32-326000)

32614,5 32-326150 Foam products PE AWOH Plastics and rubber 

products (32-326000)

32619 32-326190 Other plastics products PE AWOH Plastics and rubber 

products (32-326000)

3262 32-326200 Rubber products PE AWOH Plastics and rubber 

products (32-326000)

42493 41-424930 Nursery stock and 

florists' supplies

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Misc. nondurable goods 

(41-424900)

5323 55-532300 General rental centers PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Rental and leasing 

services (55-532000)

71321 70-713210 Casinos, except casino 

hotels WE Gambling industries (70-713200)

71329 70-713290 Other gambling 

industries WE Gambling industries (70-713200)

811118 80-811118

Other automotive 

mechanical and elec. 

repair

AE AWH, AE AHE

Automotive mechanical 

and electrical repair (80-

811110)
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 22 of 23

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NAICS 

Code

CES Industry 

Code CES Industry Title

Discontinued From 

Publication

Next Highest Published 

Industry

81231 80-812310 Coin-operated laundries 

and drycleaners

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Drycleaning and laundry 

services (80-812300)

81232 80-812320

Drycleaning and 

laundry services, except 

coin-operated

PE, PE AWH, PE 

AHE

Drycleaning and laundry 

services (80-812300)

To Table of Figures

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings 

data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally 

adjusted data. The data can be accessed at www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm, the CES-National 

Database page. 

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted 

basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES 

vintage data are typically updated in late February following the annual benchmark revision.

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmarttables.htm.
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Page 23 of 23

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Table of figures

Tables

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm 

employment, January to December 2020 (in thousands)........................................................ 3

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2020 (in 

thousands) ............................................................................................................................... 5

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 

2020 (in thousands)................................................................................................................. 6

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates 

by industry supersector, March 2010 to 2020 (in thousands)................................................. 7

Table 5. Directly estimated data types............................................................................................ 9

Table 6. Effect of March 2020 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and 

average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors................................................... 11

Table 7. Effect of March 2020 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee 

average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors........ 12

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, 

April 2019 to March 2020 (in thousands)............................................................................. 14

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2020 (in 

thousands) ............................................................................................................................. 15

Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes............................................................ 19

Table 11. Discontinued all employees series................................................................................ 20

Table 12. Collapsed all employees series..................................................................................... 20

Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees............................................................... 21

Exhibits

Exhibit 1. Preliminary and revised net birth-death forecasts for total private with and without

regressor adjustments, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)............................................. 17

Exhibit 2. Effects of adjusted net birth-death and use of reported zeroes on total private 

employment before benchmarking, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)......................... 18

Last Modified Date: February 5, 2021

Victoria Battista and Shane Haley, Economists

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics | Division of Current Employment Statistics – National

PSB Suite 4175, 2 Massachusetts Avenue, NE Washington, DC 20212-0001

www.bls.gov/CES |Telephone: 1-202-691-6555 | Email: Contact CES