The 2004-14 

job outlook for 

college graduates

by Olivia Crosby and Roger Moncarz

42 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

Olivia Crosby, (202) 691-5716, an economist, is managing editor of the OOQ; Roger Moncarz, (202) 691-5694, 

is a supervisory economist. They work in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS.
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 43

Getting a college degree takes years of study. Will 

that effort pay off in the job market? 

It probably will, according to the U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Bright prospects are 

expected to continue for college graduates, especially for 

those who prepare for careers with lots of job openings. 

Data consistently show that, on average, college 

graduates earn more money, experience less unemployment, and have a wider variety of career options than 

other workers do. A college degree also makes it easier 

for jobseekers to enter many of the fastest growing, highest paying occupations. What’s more, having a degree is 

the only way to get a start in some careers.

Between 2004 and 2014, almost 14 million job 

openings are projected to be filled by workers who have 

a bachelor’s or higher degree and who are entering an 

occupation for the first time. Some occupations will offer 

more openings and bigger paychecks than others will. 

Keep reading to learn about the benefits of having 

a college degree and the expected demand for college 

graduates. Find out which occupations are projected to 

offer the most job openings for graduates who are entering them for the first time. And learn about the difficulties 

of measuring the demand for college graduates and the 

strengths and limitations of this study’s methods. 

In this article, a college graduate is defined as a 

person who has a bachelor’s, master’s, or doctoral 

(Ph.D.) degree or a professional degree, such as one in 

law or medicine. For a discussion of associate degrees 

and other levels of education, see the companion article, 

“The 2004-14 job outlook for people who don’t have a 

bachelor’s degree,” beginning on page 28 in this issue of 

the Quarterly.

The more education you have, the greater your career options

will be. If high earnings or many job openings are a priority,

you’ll need to learn which occupations have the best prospects.
44 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

College graduates: In demand and doing well

More people are going to college now than ever before, 

in part because of the advantages that a college degree 

confers. College-educated workers’ higher earnings and 

lower unemployment are good reasons to go to college, 

and these benefits are also evidence of the demand for 

college graduates. Higher earnings show that employers 

are willing to pay more to have college graduates work 

for them. And lower unemployment means college graduates are more likely to find a job when they want one.

More people going to college

The number of people who have a college degree has 

been increasing steadily. According to Current Population Survey data, the number of people aged 25 and older 

who have a college degree grew from 37 million to 54 

million between 1994 and 2006. By mid-2006, more than 

28 percent of people aged 25 and older had a bachelor’s 

or higher degree. 

Higher earnings, lower unemployment

As a whole, college-educated workers earn more money 

than workers who have less education. In 2005, workers 

who had a bachelor’s degree had median weekly earnings of $937, compared with $583 a week for high school 

graduates—that’s a difference of $354 per week, or a 

61-percent jump in median earnings. (Median earnings 

show that half of the workers in the educational category 

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Chart 1

Usual median weekly earnings of full-time wage-and-salary workers 25 years and older

by educational attainment, including advanced degrees, annual averages 1992-2005
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 45

earned more than that amount, and half earned less.) For 

workers who had a master’s, doctoral, or professional 

degree, median earnings were even higher. The OOChart 

on page 60 is a graphic illustration of how education affects earnings.

Higher earnings for college graduates are a long-term 

trend. The wages of college-educated workers have been 

rising over the past decade—and they’ve been rising 

faster than the earnings of other workers. (See chart 1.) 

In addition to earning more money, workers who 

have more education are also less likely to be unemployed. At 2 percent, the 2005 unemployment rate for 

workers who have a bachelor’s or higher degree is half 

the rate for high school graduates (4 percent) and less 

than a third of the rate for dropouts (7 percent). 

Higher earnings and less unemployment combine to 

give graduates substantially higher incomes over a lifetime compared with their less-educated counterparts. 

The trouble with averages

Statistics about college graduates paint a rosy—and numerically accurate—picture of overall employment. But 

the data describe college graduates as a whole. High 

earnings are not guaranteed for individual graduates.

For every graduate who earns more than the median, 

another earns less. And while unemployment rates are 

low overall, many college graduates sometimes have 

trouble finding work, especially if they are waiting for a 

particular type of job.

People’s career prospects depend on many factors 

besides having a college degree. The local job market, the 

type of degree, the level of experience and skill, the 

occupation that a person is trying to enter, and many 

other considerations play a role in job-search success.

Occupations with many openings

Between 2004 and 2014, BLS projects 55 million job 

openings for workers who are entering an occupation for 

the first time. Of these, at least 13.9 million are expected 

to be filled by college-educated workers. More than half 

of these openings are expected to come from the need 

to fill newly created jobs. The rest are projected to come 

from the need to replace workers who retire or leave 

an occupation permanently for other reasons. Many of 

Openings for college graduates are 

expected in many types of 

occupations.
46 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

today’s college-educated workers are poised to retire, and 

replacement needs are expected to be high, especially in 

large occupations.

In some occupations, most workers have a bachelor’s 

or higher degree. In other occupations, education levels 

vary. Many occupations that are expected to have the 

most openings for college graduates relate to business, 

computers and engineering, education, counseling, or 

healthcare, but all career types will provide opportunities. 

“Pure college” occupations 

For this study, analysts assumed that every future job 

opening in some occupations would be for a collegeeducated worker. In these “pure college” occupations, 

at least 60 percent of current workers aged 25-44 have a 

bachelor’s or higher degree, fewer than 20 percent have 

a high school diploma or less education, and fewer than 

20 percent have taken college courses but do not have a 

bachelor’s degree. Even if some workers in these occupations do not have a bachelor’s or higher degree, all 

openings are counted as being for college-educated workers because that characterization most accurately reflects 

the job market that new workers face. (For more about 

the methods used to count job openings, see “How these 

numbers were developed,” beginning on page 54.)

BLS projects that pure-college occupations will provide about 6.9 million openings over the 2004-14 decade 

for college graduates who are entering an occupation for 

the first time. Chart 2 shows the 20 pure-college occupations expected to offer the most openings during the projections decade. Like nearly all pure-college occupations, 

all of the occupations on the chart had 2004 median earnings above $28,580, the median for all workers that year.

Despite high numbers of job openings, jobseekers 

can face strong competition when trying to enter some of 

the occupations on the chart. Occupations that offer high 

earnings and prestige, such as management analysts, attract many qualified workers. Sometimes, the number of 

qualified people who want these jobs can be greater than 

the number of openings.

Many of the occupations on chart 2 require more 

education than a bachelor’s degree. In three of the occupations—lawyers, physicians and surgeons, and pharmacists—a professional degree is required. Similarly, 

physical therapists now need a master’s degree to start.

In other occupations, educational requirements 

are more flexible. More than one-fourth of computer 

software engineers had a master’s degree in 2005, for 

example, but most of these workers did not have education beyond a bachelor’s degree. School teachers, too, 

often have a graduate degree, but many teachers earn that 

degree after they begin their careers. They take graduatelevel courses in the evenings and summers to gain skills, 

qualify for higher salaries, and maintain certification. In 

many occupations, employment and advancement opportunities improve when a worker gets a graduate degree, 

even when one is not required.

Education level may also determine the type of work 

a person can do in an occupation. Psychologists, for example, usually need a doctoral degree to do independent, 

clinical work, but some school psychologists do not need 

this level of education. Social workers can get some jobs 

Degrees in science often prepare workers for 

“pure college” occupations, or those in which 

most workers have a bachelor’s or higher degree.
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 47

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Chart 2

“Pure college” occupations with the most job openings for college graduates,

projected 2004-14 (thousands)

with a bachelor’s degree, but they often need a graduate 

degree to work in a clinical setting.

As a whole, occupations that employ mostly college graduates are expected to gain new jobs faster than 

occupations that employ workers who have less education. Between 2004 and 2014, pure-college occupations 

are projected to grow 19 percent overall, faster than the 

13-percent average growth projected for all occupations. 

Sixteen of the 20 pure-college occupations on chart 2 are 

projected to grow faster than the average. And three—

postsecondary teachers, computer applications software 

engineers, and physical therapists—are projected to grow 

more than twice as fast as the average.

Chart 3 shows the college-level occupations with the 

highest 2004 median earnings, along with their projected openings. All are pure-college occupations, and 

all require a graduate degree or work experience or both. 

Several of the occupations, including lawyers and physicians and surgeons, have many self-employed workers. 

But because the earnings data are for wage-and-salary 

workers only, the earnings of the self-employed are not 

included.
48 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

“Mixed education” occupations

Many college graduates work in occupations that employ 

workers who have a variety of education levels. Over the 

2004-14 decade, about 15.6 million openings are projected to be in occupations in which the number of collegeeducated workers is significant—20 percent or more—

but which also employ a significant number of workers 

with other levels of education. Of the 15.6 million job 

openings in these “mixed education” occupations, BLS 

expects 7 million to be filled by college graduates based 

on current educational patterns within occupations.

Chart 4 shows the mixed-education occupations 

that are expected to provide the most openings over the 

projections decade for college graduates who are entering the occupation for the first time. The chart shows the 

openings that are expected to be filled by college graduates; it does not show total openings. For example, of the 

1.2 million job openings projected for registered nurses, 

about 700,000 are projected to be filled by bachelor’s or 

higher degree holders based on nurses’ current levels of 

education. 

In many mixed-education occupations, including 

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Chart 3 

Highest paying occupations and job openings for college graduates

(openings in thousands, projected 2004-14)
registered nurses, police and sheriff’s patrol officers, 

and wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives, 

education levels have been rising, so the openings shown 

here might be underestimates.

Some employers prefer their new hires for certain 

occupations to be college graduates, even though many 

existing workers do not have a degree. A degree may 

qualify workers to take on more complex tasks or may 

increase opportunities for advancement and responsibility. Human and social service assistants, for example, are 

more likely to run a group home, coordinate projects, or 

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Chart 4 

“Mixed education” occupations with the most job openings for college graduates, 

projected 2004-14 (thousands)

provide counseling if they have a college degree. 

In other occupations—such as retail salespersons—a 

degree is less likely to affect job duties. Many college 

graduates choose these occupations for the plentiful opportunities and flexible hours that they offer.

Mixed-education occupations make it difficult to 

measure with certainty the demand for college graduates. Defining a college-level occupation is subjective. 

Some openings in an occupation might require a degree; 

for other openings, a degree might be useful; and for still 

other openings, a degree might not matter as much.

Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 49
50 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

Career fields with promise 

Many people who decide to earn a college degree already have some idea of the subjects they’d like to study 

and the career fields they’d like to prepare for. College 

graduates can qualify for most occupations with a range 

of majors; qualification may hinge on traits including evidence of interest and hard work, previous experience and 

internships, and specific coursework that demonstrates 

job skills.

Still, college subjects do correspond to particular 

occupations, and studying those subjects can give you an 

edge. This section describes seven career areas expected 

to have openings for college graduates. For each area, a 

table shows a few of the related occupations and their expected openings, usual education level, and 2004 median 

earnings. There are many other career areas for college 

graduates and many other occupations within each area. 

Artists and writers. Many openings for college 

graduates are expected in occupations that relate directly 

to writing and the arts. Communications technology and 

Table 1 

Selected art and writing occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Public relations specialists 70 $43,830 Bachelor’s degree 5% 15% 81%

Writers and authors 50 44,350 Bachelor’s degree 5 12 83

Editors 50 43,890 Bachelor’s degree 5 11 84

Graphic designers 42 38,030 Bachelor’s degree 16 30 54

Multi-media artists and animators 23 50,360 Bachelor’s degree 18 27 55

Actors 21 23,462 Long-term on-the-job training 12 16 72

Photographers 21 26,080 Long-term on-the-job training 24 27 49

Producers and directors 21 52,840 Bachelor’s plus experience 6 20 73

Technical writers 20 53,490 Bachelor’s degree 5 22 73

Reporters and correspondents 16 31,320 Bachelor’s plus experience 3 7 90

Table 2 

Selected business, finance, and sales occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Accountants and auditors 486 $50,770 Bachelor’s degree 7% 18% 75%

Sales representatives, wholesale and 

manufacturing, except technical and 

scientific products 282 45,400 Moderate-term on-the-job training 24 27 50

Management analysts 204 63,450 Bachelor’s plus experience 8 16 76

First-line supervisors/managers of retail 

sales workers 90 32,720

Work experience in a related 

occupation 41 34 25

Sales representatives, wholesale and 

manufacturing, technical and 

scientific products 80 58,580 Moderate-term on-the-job training 24 27 50

Financial analysts 63 61,910 Bachelor’s degree 5 10 85

Personal financial advisors 61 62,700 Bachelor’s degree 5 13 82

Employment, recruitment, and 

placement specialists 57 41,190 Bachelor’s degree 16 27 57

Insurance sales agents 56 41,720 Bachelor’s degree 21 33 46

Marketing managers 55 87,640 Bachelor’s plus experience 12 22 66
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 51

the expansion of media outlets are driving job growth 

in these areas, and the need to replace retiring workers 

is expected to create additional opportunities for new 

graduates.

Table 1 shows some of the occupations related to 

writing and the arts that are expected to have numerous openings during the 2004-14 decade. Earnings vary 

widely, and strong competition for jobs is expected in 

nearly all of these occupations. 

Business, finance, and sales. The growing complexity of business is expected to increase the demand for 

college graduates who have formal business training. 

These graduates will be needed to manage rising personal 

incomes and growing competition among businesses and 

to comply with increased regulation of financial activity.

Sales occupations, too, are expected to grow along 

with the overall economy. Many workers in sales occupations do not have a college degree, but many others 

do. Having a degree is especially valued in occupations 

involving the sale of scientific or technical products.

Table 2 shows several occupations that are expected 

to have numerous openings for college graduates between 

2004 and 2014. Coursework in business-related subjects 

is good preparation for all of them. For some occupations, such as accountant and auditor, specific business 

courses are required for licensure. 

Computers and engineering. The demand for new 

products and new technology is expected to continue to 

drive growth in computer and engineering occupations. 

Occupations in emerging engineering specialties, including biotechnology and environmental engineering, are 

expected to gain jobs rapidly over the projections decade. 

However, these specialties are expected to remain small 

and to provide fewer openings than larger engineering 

specialties, such as mechanical and computer engineering.

Table 3 shows the computer and engineering occupations that are projected to have the 

most openings over the 2004-14 decade. For 

the computer occupations shown, a computer-related degree is preferred but often is 

not required. The engineering occupations, 

however, usually require specific engineering 

coursework.

Table 3 

Selected computer and engineering occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Computer software engineers, applications 268 $74,980 Bachelor’s degree 4% 13% 83%

Computer software engineers, 

systems software 180 79,740 Bachelor’s degree 4 13 83

Computer systems analysts 151 66,460 Bachelor’s degree 9 25 66

Network systems and data 

communications analysts 101 60,600 Bachelor’s degree 9 31 60

Computer support specialists 90 40,430 Associate degree 17 42 41

Computer programmers 90 62,890 Bachelor’s degree 6 22 72

Mechanical engineers 87 66,320 Bachelor’s degree 4 16 80

Network and computer systems 

administrators 82 58,190 Bachelor’s degree 13 35 51

Civil engineers 77 64,230 Bachelor’s degree 3 9 87

Industrial engineers 54 65,020 Bachelor’s degree 9 22 70

“Mixed education” occupations include 

sales workers, who have varied levels of 

education and experience.
52 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

Counseling and social science. Several trends are 

projected to increase the need for counselors, social 

workers, and psychologists over the 2004-14 decade: 

More schools are hiring trained counselors, and more 

people are seeking counseling for family problems, substance abuse, and mental disorders. 

The occupations on table 4 are expected to have the 

most openings for workers who have education in counseling and social science. But openings will also exist in 

occupations that relate to other social science specialties, 

including geography and economics.

Education. Education-related occupations are 

expected to provide plentiful opportunities for college 

graduates. (See table 5.) Most openings will come from 

the need to replace the thousands of teachers and administrators expected to retire. Additional positions will 

come from efforts to reduce class sizes and from the 

increasing enrollments at colleges and universities.

Table 4 

Selected counseling and social science occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Clergy 139 $36,690 Master’s degree 11% 14% 75%

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers 100 45,210 Long-term on-the-job training 20 50 30

Child, family, and school social workers 98 34,820 Bachelor’s degree 8 16 76

Educational, vocational, and 

school counselors

94 45,570 Master’s degree 11 16 72

Market research analysts 86 56,140 Bachelor’s degree 6 15 79

Clinical, counseling, and 

school psychologists

68 54,950 Doctoral degree 0 1 99

Rehabilitation counselors 61 27,870 Master’s degree 11 16 72

Mental health and substance abuse 

social workers

51 33,920 Master’s degree 8 16 76

Mental health counselors 48 32,960 Master’s degree 11 16 72

Substance abuse and behavioral disorder 

counselors

39 32,130 Master’s degree 11 16 72

Table 5 

Selected education occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Postsecondary teachers 892 $51,800 Doctoral degree 2% 5% 93%

Elementary school teachers, except 

special education 587 43,160 Bachelor’s degree 3 5 92

Secondary school teachers, except 

special and vocational education 436 45,650 Bachelor’s degree 2 3 95

Middle school teachers, except 

special and vocational education 225 43,670 Bachelor’s degree 3 5 92

Special education teachers, preschool, 

kindergarten, and elementary school 97 43,570 Bachelor’s degree 3 5 92

Preschool teachers, except special education 93 20,980 Postsecondary vocational award 21 31 48

Self-enrichment education teachers 59 30,880

Work experience in a related 

occupation 14 33 53

Special education teachers, 

secondary school 58 45,700 Bachelor’s degree 3 5 92

Instructional coordinators 50 48,790 Master’s degree 2 11 87

Librarians 46 45,900 Master’s degree 5 10 85
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 53

Workers in education-related occupations train in a 

variety of subjects. Some have education degrees, but 

many others take courses or train on the job after earning a degree in another subject. Postsecondary teachers 

usually have an advanced degree in the subject that they 

teach, and nearly all librarians have a graduate degree in 

library or information science.

Healthcare. The need for healthcare—and healthcare 

practitioners—will increase as the population ages, providing job openings for people who have the appropriate 

education.

As shown on table 6, earnings vary widely in healthcare occupations, with those that require more education 

offering higher salaries on average. The table lists an 

associate degree as the most significant form of training 

for registered nurses and clinical and medical laboratory technicians, but these workers sometimes have more 

opportunities for advancement if they have a bachelor’s 

degree.

Science. Many scientists will retire during the projections decade, and the need to replace them is projected 

to create openings in science-related occupations. Additional openings are expected from the need to create new 

products and explore problems, such as bioterrorism. 

Opportunities span scientific disciplines and exist 

for workers with a variety of education levels, as table 7 

shows. Competition for the most attractive science jobs 

can be keen.

Table 6 

Selected healthcare occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Registered nurses 712 $52,330 Associate degree 2% 40% 58%

Physicians and surgeons 212 145,600 First professional degree 1 2 97

Pharmacists 101 84,900 First professional degree 1 2 97

Physical therapists 72 60,180 Master’s degree 2 8 90

Medical and clinical laboratory technicians 44 30,840 Associate degree 18 34 48

Occupational therapists 43 54,660 Master’s degree 0 15 85

Medical and clinical laboratory technologists 43 45,730 Bachelor's degree 18 34 48

Speech-language pathologists 38 52,410 Master's degree <1 <1 99

Physician assistants 29 69,410 Bachelor's degree 6 26 69

Veterinarians 25 66,590 First professional degree 3 1 95

Table 7 

Selected science occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for college 

graduates, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Medical scientists, except epidemiologists 37 $61,320 Doctoral degree 1% 1% 98%

Chemists 33 56,060 Bachelor’s degree 3 3 94

Environmental scientists and specialists, 

including health 26 51,080 Master’s degree 3 4 93

Biological technicians 13 33,210 Associate degree 31 9 59

Biochemists and biophysicists 8 68,950 Doctoral degree 1 3 96

Microbiologists 7 54,840 Doctoral degree 1 3 96

Zoologists and wildlife biologists 7 50,330 Bachelor’s degree 1 3 96

Geoscientists, except hydrologists and 

geographers 7 68,730 Master’s degree 3 4 93

Conservation scientists 7 52,480 Bachelor’s degree 6 9 85

Physicists 6 87,450 Doctoral degree 3 5 92
54 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

How these numbers were developed

There are many ways to measure job outlook by education, and each method has strengths and limitations. 

This analysis focuses on future job openings because job 

openings show how many new workers will be able to 

enter an occupation.

Deciding which job openings will be filled by college 

graduates is more complicated. Counselors and jobseekers often ask which occupations are “college level.” But 

answering that question is difficult because workers in 

most occupations come from many different educational 

backgrounds. This analysis uses the education levels of 

current workers as an objective way to account for this 

variation.

Like any analysis based on projections and estimates, 

though, this one has limitations to its accuracy. Understanding these limitations helps people better use the 

results.

Methods used

To estimate the demand for college graduates between 

2004 and 2014, BLS analysts got specific. First, they 

projected the number of job openings for workers entering each of more than 500 occupations over the decade. 

Next, analysts estimated how many of these openings 

would be filled by college graduates.

Measuring job openings. Job openings come from 

two sources: the need to fill newly created jobs and the 

need to replace workers who retire or leave an occupation 

permanently for other reasons.

To estimate the number of newly created jobs, analysts projected how much each occupation would grow 

or decline between 2004 and 2014. An occupation might 

gain jobs for many reasons. Sometimes, the demand for 

a specific good or service creates the need for additional 

workers in an occupation, such as when an increased use 

of computer software creates a greater need for software 

engineers. The way a good is produced or a service is 

provided can also lead to more jobs in an occupation. 

Rather than relying solely on teachers and administrators 

to guide and educate students, for example, more schools 

are hiring counselors and psychologists, creating more Thousands of opportunities in education-related 

occupations will come from the need to replace 

teachers and administrators who retire.
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 55

openings for those workers. In the same way, a decrease 

in the demand for a good or service or a change in 

production methods can reduce the numbers of jobs and 

openings in an occupation.

The second source of job openings is replacement 

needs. To estimate how many workers will need to be 

replaced during the projections decade, BLS analysts 

studied the ages of current workers and the length of 

time that workers in each occupation usually remain. In 

occupations that require high levels of training, workers 

tend to stay longer. In other occupations, especially those 

that have shorter training periods, workers tend to leave 

or retire more quickly.

Job openings for college graduates. After analysts 

projected the number of job openings for workers entering an occupation, they estimated how many of those 

openings would be for college graduates. Using information from 2000-04 Current Population Survey data, 

analysts classified current workers’ educational attainment into one of three categories: a high school diploma 

or less, some college but no bachelor’s or higher degree, 

or a bachelor’s or higher degree. If at least 20 percent of 

workers in an occupation belonged to a given educational 

category, that level was deemed significant. Expected 

openings were divided among each of these significant 

education categories, according to how common each 

category was.

For example, the occupation of real estate sales 

agents includes workers in each educational category: 

About 20 percent have a high school diploma or less, 

40 percent have some college coursework or an associate degree but no bachelor’s degree, and 40 percent have 

a bachelor’s or higher degree. Projected openings were 

divided among the education categories using those 

percentages.

For some occupations, a bachelor’s or higher degree was the only education level common enough to be 

significant. At least 60 percent of workers in the occupation were college graduates, and fewer than 20 percent of 

workers belonged to the other two educational categories. 

In these pure-college occupations, every projected opening was considered to be for a college graduate.

In addition to using the three educational attainment 

categories, this article provides specific information 

about the types of degrees commonly required in some 

occupations. This type of information comes from the 

occupational analyses conducted for the Occupational 

Outlook Handbook.

Earnings data. This analysis uses earnings data from 

two surveys: the Current Population Survey and the 

Occupational Employment Statistics survey. Earnings 

data from the Current Population Survey were used to 

compare earnings by education. Earnings data from the 

Occupational Employment Statistics survey provide median earnings for each occupation as a whole.

The two surveys are different. The Current Population Survey is a household survey that asks workers 

themselves to give earnings, occupational, educational, 

and other types of information. The Occupational Employment Statistics survey, an establishment survey, asks 

employers to provide earnings and occupational information about their workers; it does not include the self-employed.

Limitations of the data

To measure job openings for college graduates, BLS analysts needed to make assumptions about the future. First, 

analysts assumed that the education levels in each occupation would remain roughly the same over the 2004-14 

decade. In reality, the educational characteristics of some 

occupations change over time. Many occupations—such 

as registered nurses and police officers—have had a 

gradual increase in the number of workers who have a 

bachelor’s degree.

Analysts also ignored education levels that were 

uncommon in an occupation; as stated previously, at 

least 20 percent of workers in an occupation had to have 

a given level of education for it to be considered significant. So, for example, even though almost 18 percent of 

engineering technicians have a college degree, none of 

that occupation’s projected openings were counted as 

openings for college graduates.

Another limitation of this study is that it focuses on 

the number of job openings projected in an occupation. 

But job openings give only a partial view of the prospects 

that workers can expect. The number of people who will 

compete for openings is also important. For most occupations, however, BLS analysts do not have enough information to gauge the competitiveness of the job market.

Finally, the accuracy of this study is limited by its use 

of survey data. Surveys are always subject to some error 

because they do not count every worker and because the 

information that they gather is sometimes incorrect. In 

addition, the education levels of many occupations, 
including some in the tables, could not be determined 

with statistical accuracy because the number of workers 

surveyed was too small. In those cases, analysts substituted the education levels of similar occupations or groups 

of occupations that had larger numbers of workers.

Even with its assumptions and limitations, however, 

there is evidence that the method described here produces accurate results. When existing jobs are separated 

into educational categories using this method, the results 

closely match current numbers.

For more information

This article shows expected job openings in only a few of 

the occupations available to workers who have a college 

degree. To learn about the expected job openings in every 

occupation studied, see the 2006-07 Occupational Projections and Training Data bulletin, which also explains 

in greater detail the methods used in this analysis. The 

bulletin is online at www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm.

To learn more about the occupations described in this 

article and in the bulletin, see the 2006-07 Occupational 

Outlook Handbook. The Handbook describes job outlook, education and training requirements, job duties, and 

more for nearly 275 occupations; it is available in many 

libraries and career centers. It is also online at 

www.bls.gov/oco.

Other issues of the Quarterly offer more information 

about some of those occupations and about other occupations that are popular with college graduates. See, for 

example, “Project managers stay in charge and out front,” 

in the summer 2006 issue (see the article online at 

www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2006/summer/art03.pdf); 

“Groupmakers and grantmakers: Jobs in advocacy, grantmaking, and civic organizations,” in the fall 2005 issue 

(see www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/fall/art04.pdf); and 

“Geography jobs,” in the spring 2005 issue (see 

www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/spring/art01.pdf).

To order these publications from BLS, call the U.S. 

Government Printing Office toll-free, 1 (866) 512-1800.

BLS is not the only organization that gathers data on 

the demand for and earnings of college graduates. Associations, both professional ones for specific occupations 

and general ones such as the National Association of Colleges and Employers, often conduct surveys on employers’ hiring needs, workers’ education levels, and workers’ 

earnings. Find contact information for these associations 

in the Occupational Outlook Handbook or in the resource 

section of your local library.

For those considering college, the U.S. Department 

of Education provides additional information and assistance, including tips on financial aid. Most college 

students receive some form of financial aid through programs administered by the Department of Education. The 

Department provides applications for grants and loans, 

lists resources for finding scholarships, and maintains a 

searchable database of colleges and universities by location, available majors, enrollment, and other characteristics. Write to the Federal Student Aid Information Center, 

P.O. Box 84, Washington, D.C. 20044-0084; call the 

financial aid hotline toll-free, 1 (800) 4FED-AID 

(433-3243); or visit online at www.studentaid.ed.gov.

School and career counselors can help you apply for 

Federal aid and other forms of financial assistance. They 

can also help you to identify additional career options 

beyond those described here.

Projections and education statistics are only a few of 

the factors to consider when deciding on a career. Other 

considerations, including working conditions, personal 

interests and strengths, and local labor market conditions, are also important. Career centers and labor market 

information offices can help you explore these matters. 

Find your local One-Stop Career Center and labor market 

information office by visiting America’s Service Locator 

online at www.servicelocator.org or by calling the U.S. 

Department of Labor’s toll-free career hotline, 

1 (877) US2-JOBS (872-5627).

Choosing an occupation that is projected to have 

many opportunities can ease your way into employment. 

But in the end, it takes only one job opening to start a 

satisfying career.

56 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 57

In healthcare, as in many fields, openings are projected 

for workers at different levels of education—but higher 

earning occupations usually require more education.