1 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Source Selection for CE PUMD and 

Publication Tables

Barry Steinberg / Joshua Klick / Bryan Rigg

Consumer Expenditure Surveys / Consumer 

Price Index

2023 Microdata Users Workshop

July 18, 2023
2 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

What is Source Selection

◼ Methods used to select the appropriate survey 

(Interview/Diary) for publication table estimates. 

◼ For items that are unique to one survey or another, the 

choice is obvious.

◼ For items that overlap in coverage between the surveys, 

source selection methods are used to determine which 

source to select for publishing the Integrated data. 
3 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Purpose

◼ Primarily used for publication tables.

Identifies the more reliable source of survey data to use in estimation.

◼ PUMD data users 

Provides a means for users to integrate survey estimates and closely 

replicate the publication tables. 

◼ CPI

Monthly expenditure weights used for Chained-CPI-U

Annual Expenditures for the CPI-U
4 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Methodology – Overall Goal

◼ Over 200 UCCs are processed using both the Diary and the 

Interview.

◼ A determination is made to which source is used for the 

integrated tables.

◼ The overall methodology selects the higher mean given two 

decision criteria with exceptions from the CPI. 
5 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Methodology

◼Preliminary steps:

Data are top coded at 99th percentile and bottom coded at 1st

percentile

– This is done to minimize the impact of outliers

Calculating counts, sample means, and sample variances.
6 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Decision Criteria 

◼There are 2 criteria and a CPI Seasonality consideration 

that are used in determining source selection decisions:

Criterion 1: Counts Sufficiency

Criterion 2: Statistical Significance (Z-scores)
7 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Criterion 1: Counts Sufficiency 

◼A sufficient amount of data exists when the count for 

each of the 3 years is greater than or equal to 60.

◼If both surveys have sufficient data, then proceed to the 

next Criterion (Z-score).

◼If both surveys lack sufficient data, then keep existing 

source. 
8 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Criterion 2: Statistical Significance (Z-scores)

◼ If the value of the weighted Z-Score

z* = (3/6)zt-1 + (2/6)zt-2 + (1/6)zt-3

Greater than 1.645 – Interview Survey

Less than -1.645 – Diary Survey 
9 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Frequency 

◼ Process is now conducted every year

List of UCCs is provided by a BLS production job 

Next review is in Fall of 2023 to examine source changes to be put in 

for 2023 data which will be published in 2024
10 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

CE-CPI Review 

◼ CE and CPI review the list of UCCs and make a joint decision on 

which UCCs should change sources

◼ Reasons to keep existing sources include preventing frequent 

source selection changes and other considerations 

◼ In addition, there is analytical judgement involved in decisions

◼ Brett Creech and Barry Steinberg: CE Source Selection for 

Publication Tables

https://www.bls.gov/cex/anthology11/csxanth3.pdf
11 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Chained CPI compared to CPI-U

◼ C-CPI-U: monthly weights reflect 

substitution across items

lags CPI-U by 10-12 months

Annualized growth rate of 2.3% (2000)

◼ CPI-U: fixed quantity weights

Published 10 days following month 

Chained annually beginning 2023

Annualized growth rate of 2.5% (2000)

130

135

140

145

150

155

160

165

170

175

180

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023

CPI-U (blue) and C-CPI-U (orange); December 1999=100 
12 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Chained CPI seasonality analysis-monthly weights

◼ CPI source analysis-

Identify seasonal overlap candidates

Autocorrelation (ACF) analysis

Compare to secondary sources (ex. PCE)

Submit to source selection team

◼ Analysis of Videogames (310232):

Diary exhibits mean December peaks for 

3 of 5 years with high monthly variation 

Interview exhibits December peaks with 

low variation across months

Current CPI ELI D lags significant I lags significant

D RE012 No months Month 12
13 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

What’s next?

◼ 2023 analysis: Continue use 

of current methodology + CPI 

contribution

◼ 2023 data: Number of 

Overlap UCCS to drop with 

additional consolidations

◼ 2024 data: Edit rate criterion 

to be evaluated
14 — U.S. BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS • bls.gov

Source selection access

https://www.bls.gov/cex/pumd_doc.htm
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Source Selection reference 1996-2022
Contact Information

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Barry Steinberg

Steinberg.Barry@bls.gov

Joshua Klick

Klick.Joshua@bls.gov

Bryan Rigg

Rigg.Bryan@bls.gov