The Impact of COVID-19 on CE Survey Estimatesfor 2020

January 24, 2022

Scott Curtin

Consumer Expenditure Surveys Program Report Series
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This report is a follow-up to the May 5th CE Program Series reportimpact of COVID-19 on CE survey 

estimates. The prior report highlighted changes in collection that were introduced as a result of the 

COVID-19 pandemic, as well as initial CE estimates from the first and second quarters of 2020. This 

report provides an update to those results, giving data users an indication of the impact COVID-19 had 

on collection, processing, and estimation in all four quarters of 2020.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) programhas continued to 

pursue obtaining high-quality data from its respondentsin both the Interview Survey and the Diary 

Survey. 1. Starting on March 19, 2020, the U.S. Census Bureau, which collects CE data for BLS, ceased inperson collection of CE data for both the Interview Survey and the Diary Survey, and transitionedall inperson interviews to telephone interviews. Phone-only interviews were required through June 2020. In 

July of 2020, The U.S. Census Bureau authorized the reinstatement of in person data collection, and 

while this option was again available to Field Representatives (FRs), the initial contact attempt was still 

required to be over the phone. When in-person interviews were necessary, FRs were prohibited from 

collecting data inside of respondent’s homes. Specific to the Diary Survey, from March 2020 through 

June 2020, FRs transcribedexpenditures from respondents via phone instead of collecting completed 

paper diaries from residences. Additionally, a prototype online instrument for the Diary Survey was 

introduced in June 2020 as an additional option for data collection. This online instrument continues to 

be available to FRs for collection purposes and will continue to undergo refinement and improvement 

for use with future iterations of the Diary Survey.

This reportfocuses on three different analyses, providing a brief overview of the observed changes in 

the CE data for 2020 compared to, or relative to 2019. This report continues the analysis approach 

outlined in the May 5th report, with updated year-over-year percent change figures, and introduces 

annual means and associatedrelative standard errors (RSEs)for comparison with 2019. The report also

expands on the comparison of quarterly CE aggregate estimates with quarterly aggregates from the 

Bureau of Economic Analysis’s(BEA)Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measure. The results 

found in this report provide some initial indication of the full impact COVID-19 had on consumers during 

2020. 

Data Quality

As a means to monitor data quality, the CE program not only continually tracks response rates for each 

survey, but also compares estimates against other data sources to help identify potential under- or overreporting. Beginning in February 2020, prior to the World Health Organization categorizing a pandemic,

both surveys saw declines in response through the first half of the year. In an effort to combat decreases 

in sample, The U.S Census Bureau partneredwith the Economic Reimbursable Surveys Division (ERD) to 

use theirresearch contact frame to supplement the CE surveys. Beginning in April 2020, phone numbers

1 The Consumer Expenditure Surveys (CE) data are collected by the U.S Census Bureau collects Consumer Expenditure Surveys 

(CE) data for Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) in two surveys, the Quarterly Interview Survey (CEQ) for major or recurring items 

and the weekly Diary Survey (CED) for more minor or frequently purchased items. CE’s data are primarily used to revise the 

relative importance of goods and services for the Consumer Price Index market basket. The CE are the only set of federal 

household surveys to provide information on the complete range of consumers' expenditures and incomes. It also collects 

information on income, demographics, and, in the Interview Survey, assets and liabilities.
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from the ERD contact frame were included. As seen in Chart 1 below, the Interview Survey response rate 

rose almost 10 percentage points from July to September 20202. Response ratesfrom September to 

December 2020 declined slightly, falling to 45.8 percent. The Diary Survey showed a similar uptick in 

response from April to September 2020, with response ratesthen falling slightly to 33.9 percent.

The Diary Survey drop in sample was partially offset due to a larger sample introduced in January 2020.

As seen in Chart 2 below, this sample increase, paired with the ERD supplement mentioned above, 

helped support moderate gains in terms of sample size for both the Interview Survey and Diary Survey in 

quarters 3 and 4 of 2020. 

2 Estimation response rates are calculated based on the set of Consumer Units (CUs) that were included in the computation of 

mean expenditures and other estimated statistics produced on the CE website. These response rates will differ slightly from the 

response rates published on the household and establishment response rates webpage, which include CUs that responded, but 

do not meet the minimum threshold for inclusion in estimation.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

2019 2020

Chart 1: Consumer Expenditure Surveys monthly response rates, 3rd 

quarter 2019 through 4th quarter 2020

Diary Interview
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The CE and the PCE are two leading sources of household expenditure data in the United States. While 

the two measures result in significantly different accounts of consumer spending, the relative change 

observed between the two can provide some indication of the reliability of either estimate. The yearover-year percent change in CE quarterly expenditure estimatesin the first half of 2020 showed very 

similar trends, with decreasing percent change figures for both the 1st and 2nd quarters of 20203. As 

seen in Chart 3 3A below, year-over-year percent changesfor the 3rd and 4th quarters of 2020 for both 

the CE and PCE continued to show similar trends. 

3 For a more detailed comparison of CE and PCE estimates, please see 

https://www.bls.gov/cex/cecomparison/pce_profile.htm

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

Quarter 3

2019

Quarter 4

2019

Quarter 1

2020

Quarter 2

2020

Quarter 3

2020

Quarter 4

2020

Chart 2: Consumer Expenditure Surveys quarterly sample, 3rd quarter 2019 

through 4th quarter 2020

Diary Interview
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Continuing with the PCE analysis outlined in the previous report, quarterly aggregates for food and 

alcohol from the CE were again compared to the PCE, but now for all four quarters of 2020. This 

comparison was made by looking at how food and alcohol expenditures compared with their 

counterpart categories from the PCE. The CE defines food and alcohol as part of two broad categories, at 

home4 and away from home5. PCE identifies spending on alcohol and food in a similar manner, 

classifying at home expenditures as part of their off-premise consumption categories, and away from 

home expenditures as part of their purchased meals categories. Chart 3B below shows that year-overyear percent change in aggregatesfor away from home food and alcohol expenditures in both the PCE 

and CE continued to show similar patterns, with CE continuing to show a more dramatic drop in 

spending. With the introduction of quarters 3 and 4 of 2020, year-over-year percent change figures for 

4 Food at home refers to the total expenditures for food at grocery stores (or other food stores) and food prepared by the CU

on trips. It excludes the purchase of nonfood items(e.g., paper products, detergents, home cleaning supplies, pet foods, and 

alcoholic beverages) that might be purchased in these venues.

5 Food away from home includes all meals (breakfast and brunch, lunch, dinner and snacks and nonalcoholic beverages) 

including tips at fast food, take-out, delivery, concession stands, buffet and cafeteria, at full-service restaurants, and at vending 

machines and mobile vendors. Also included are board (including at school), meals as pay, special catered affairs, such as 

weddings, bar mitzvahs, and confirmations, school lunches, and meals away from home on trips.

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

2018Q3-2019Q3 2018Q4-2019Q4 2019Q1-2020Q1 2019Q2-2020Q2 2019Q3-2020Q3 2019Q4-2020Q4

Chart 3A: Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure 

aggregates, Consumer Expenditure Surveys and Personal Consumption 

Expenditures, 3rd quarter 2019 through 4th quarter 2020

CE PCE
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at home spending in the CE showed a much stronger correlationwith PCE than it did in quarter 2 of 

2020.

ExpenditureMean and Variance Estimates

As noted in the 2020 Annual News Release, the CE program observed several notable changesin the 

major expenditure categories. Of the 14 major spending categories, only five showed an increase over 

the previous year's estimate, leaving nine categories that showed declines over the same period. Chart 4 

below depicts the average annualmeans for 2020 and highlights those expenditures that saw declines 

when compared to 2019. The decreases in 2020 for food and alcoholic beveragesin the annual 

estimates were stillprimarily associated with away from home purchasesforthese two categories. Food 

away from home experienced a reduction in expenditures of nearly 33 percent. For alcoholic beverages, 

the away from home spending dropped 44 percent.

-100%

-80%

-60%

-40%

-20%

0%

20%

40%

Chart 3B: Year-over-year percent change in quarterly expenditure aggregates, 

Consumer Expenditure Surveys and Personal Consumption Expenditures, 3rd quarter 

2019 through 4th quarter 2020

PCE - Food and nonalcoholic

beverages purchased for offpremises consumption

CE - Food at home

PCE - Meals and nonalcoholic

beverages

CE - Food away from home

PCE - Alcoholic beverages

purchased

for off-premises consumption

CE - Alcohol at home

PCE - Alcohol in purchased meals

CE - Alcohol away from home
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The CE staff also looked at the year-over-year change in variance in the CE data for 2020 and 

compared those estimates with the previous year'sresults. By looking at the annual relative standard 

error of the mean (RSE) specifically, defined as the ratio of the standard error of an expenditure to its 

mean, one can establish if estimates were associated with a larger degree of sampling error. As seen in 

Chart 5 below, of the 14 major spending categories, only two, education and cash contributions,showed 

an increase in RSE greater than one percentage point in 2020. Users should continue to be mindful of 

the variance measures associated with each underlying expenditure assome expenditures, particularly 

those with low percent reporting, are more susceptible to larger variance. For more information on how 

to interpret the various measurements of variance provided in the CE tables, please see How does the 

variability of Consumer Expenditure data impact your analysis?

$114

$315

$478

$646

$907

$1,271

$1,434

$2,283

$2,912

$5,177

$7,246

$7,316

$9,826

$21,409

$92

$320

$579

$786

$899

$1,443

$1,883

$1,995

$3,148

$5,193

$7,165

$8,169

$10,684

$20,679

 Reading

 Tobacco products and smoking supplies

 Alcoholic beverages

 Personal care products and services

 Miscellaneous

 Education

 Apparel and services

 Cash contributions

 Entertainment

 Healthcare

 Personal insurance and pensions

 Food

 Transportation

 Housing

Chart 4: Average annual expenditures, Consumer Expenditure Surveys, 

2019 & 2020

2019 2020
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Conclusion:

Much like other surveys that depend on in-person data collection, the effect of the pandemic on the CE 

program resonatesthroughout all aspects of development, from data collection and processing to 

estimation and dissemination. Respondent sentiment paired with changes in contact methods 

attributed to declines in response and ultimately sample during this period, and while introducing 

alternatives to in-person data collection and expanding the sample did fuel some recovery, neither fully 

recouped the sample to pre-2020 levels. As a result, estimate reliability was negatively impacted as 

indicated by the variance measures noted above. These factors should be considered by users as there is 

a greater potential for measurement error associated with the 2020 data and products provided by the 

CE program. Users interested in gaining more knowledge surrounding the data quality for 2020, can 

reference the 2020 Data Quality Profile. 

While the effects of these changes in data collection can be seen in survey response, sample size, and 

estimate reliability, the quick actions among BLS and U.S. Census Bureau staff to quickly react and adjust 

1.14%

1.43%

1.45%

1.72%

1.96%

2.55%

3.32%

3.65%

4.37%

4.77%

4.98%

7.16%

7.27%

7.70%

0.94%

1.80%

1.35%

1.45%

1.79%

1.76%

3.57%

3.64%

3.91%

4.73%

4.49%

7.03%

5.93%

5.48%

0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9%

 Housing

 Personal insurance and pensions

 Healthcare

 Food

 Transportation

 Personal care products and services

 Tobacco products and smoking supplies

 Apparel and services

 Alcoholic beverages

 Miscellaneous

 Entertainment

 Reading

 Education

 Cash contributions

Chart 5: Relative standard errors, Consumer Expenditure Surveys, 2019 & 

2020

2019 2020
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procedures allowed for the uninterrupted continuation of data collection, enabling the study of 

consumer spending behavior during such a unique and important time in history. 

Experiences from this pandemic have helped shape contingency plans to combat collection and data 

quality issues in the event such a situation presents itself again. Collaboration between the BLS and the 

U.S. Census Bureau has helped frame best practices regarding collection and processing.

The CE program will continue to analyze the impact of COVID-19 on the (public use microdata files

(PUMD) and tables. For further information, contact the Consumer Expenditure Surveys, Office of Prices 

and Living Conditions at (202) 691-6900, or by email at cexinfo@bls.gov. CE program staff are available 

Monday through Friday to respond to inquiries. To be notified when new products are available, please 

sign up for updates by creating an account and selecting Consumer Expenditure Survey Update within 

the list under Notifications.