Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 27

Starting a good career requires making preparations and wise 

decisions—decisions based, in part, on information about the job 

market. The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) provides job 

market information to students and jobseekers by developing projections of both job growth or decline and job openings in hundreds of 

occupations. Analysts then use these projections to study the overall 

future demand for workers by education level.

The two articles that follow evaluate job opportunities by education 

level. The first article considers the job outlook for people who do not 

have a bachelor’s degree. The second article describes the job outlook 

for people who have, or plan to pursue, a bachelor’s or higher degree. 

Both articles highlight occupations that are expected to be in demand, 

and both include information on the earnings and education that workers in those occupations attain.

But the articles present only a sample of the occupations for which 

BLS develops projections. For a more complete picture of job outlook, 

see BLS publications such as the 2006-07 editions of the Occupational 

Outlook Handbook and Occupational Projections and Training Data

bulletin. Information about these and other resources is available at the 

end of each article.

Job outlook 

by education, 

2004-14
The 2004-14 job 

outlook for people 

who don’t have a 

bachelor’s degree

by Olivia Crosby and Roger Moncarz

28 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

Olivia Crosby, (202) 691-5716, an economist, is managing editor of the OOQ; Roger Moncarz, (202) 691-5694, 

is a supervisory economist. They work in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS.
Good news for those not planning to earn a 4-year 

degree: Millions of job openings are projected 

for high school graduates over the 2004-14 

decade, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics 

(BLS). But jobseekers will probably need training beyond 

a high school diploma, particularly if they want a job 

with high pay.

Most jobs are filled by workers who do not have a 

bachelor’s degree, and BLS expects that to continue in 

the future. Between 2004 and 2014, job openings for 

workers who are entering their occupation for the first 

time and who don’t have a bachelor’s degree are expected 

to total roughly 40 million. That’s more than twice the 

number of job openings for 4-year college graduates.

But many of these job openings will be in occupations that require some training after high school. In fact, 

high-paying occupations almost always require training. 

That training could include taking a few college courses, 

getting an associate degree, training on the job in an 

apprenticeship program, or taking vocational classes at a 

technical school. 

Which occupations should people prepare for? 

Which are expected to have the best prospects? 

Read on to discover the occupations that are 

projected to have the most openings over the 2004-14 

decade for people who do not have a bachelor’s degree 

and which occupations tend to pay well. Next, learn more 

about career fields—including construction, maintenance 

and repair, healthcare, and computers—that are expected 

to provide many opportunities for new workers. A later 

section of this article describes in detail the methods used 

to develop this information.

All of the numbers in this article are estimates. They 

are based on projections of future job growth and decline 

If you want a job right after high school, projections show many openings 

will be available. But if you want a job with above-average earnings, you’ll 

probably need some training before you join the workforce. 

Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 29
30 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

and on estimates of how many workers will leave their 

occupations and, thus, make room for new workers. The 

results shown here also rely on survey data that describe 

the education levels of current workers. And the results 

assume that future workers will have education levels 

similar to those of current workers. 

Job openings and occupations

Between 2004 and 2014, BLS expects about 55 million 

job openings to be filled by workers who are new to their 

occupation. Of this total, more than 40 million openings 

are projected to be filled by workers who do not have a 

bachelor’s degree and who are entering their occupation 

for the first time. About 25 million of these openings are 

expected to be held by workers who have a high school 

diploma or less education. Another 15 million openings 

are expected for workers who have some college education or an associate degree but do not have a bachelor’s 

degree.

Job openings are expected in every type of occupation. But some occupations and career fields are projected 

to have more job openings and better earnings 

than others. 

Occupations with potential

Two main factors determine whether an occupation will 

have many job openings. One factor is how many workers will leave the occupation permanently. Large occupations—that is, occupations in which many jobs exist nationwide—have more workers and, thus, also have more 

workers who leave the occupation and create openings. 

Occupations that have few training requirements or low 

earnings also have more workers who leave. And occupations that have many older workers usually provide more 

openings because of retirements.

The second factor affecting job openings is job 

growth. Some occupations gain new jobs faster than others, providing more openings. 

The occupations that are expected to need the most 

new workers between 2004 and 2014 employ workers 

who have widely varying levels of education. People in 

some occupations can start work after high school. In 

other occupations, especially higher paying ones, workers often have more education or training. Sometimes, 

people can enter these occupations if they don’t have 

training after high school, but they often earn less while 

they train on the job.

Occupations with the most openings. Chart 1 shows 

the occupations projected to have the most job openings 

between 2004 and 2014 for people who have less education than a bachelor’s degree. Most of these occupations 

involve working with the public.

The chart also shows the occupations’ 2004 median 

earnings. (Median earnings are the point at which half 

of the workers in the occupation make more than that 

amount, and half make less.) All but four of the occupations in the chart had median earnings below $28,580—

the median for all workers in 2004. 

But median earnings don’t show the wide variation 

in pay that exists in some occupations. For example, 

earnings for some customer service representatives, such 

as those who provide help for complex computer problems, are sometimes significantly higher than the median. 

These workers are usually highly skilled and have several 

months of on-the-job training; some also have a bachelor’s degree. 

You can enter most of the occupations shown on the 

chart if you have a high school diploma or less education. 

Workers often qualify for jobs after less than 1 month of 

on-the-job training. But six of the occupations—

customer service representatives; truck drivers; bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks; registered 

nurses; executive secretaries and administrative assistants; and general maintenance workers—require more 

training. These are also the highest paying occupations 

on the chart.

Customer service representatives, who often receive 

1 month to 1 year of training, usually start their jobs by 

observing experienced workers. Truck drivers usually 

need 1 month to 1 year of training on the job; some attend vocational schools to learn the basics of commercial 

driving. Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 

also require 1 month to 1 year of training, and many have 

an associate degree in business. 

Registered nurses, unlike the other occupations on 

the chart, almost always have some college training. 

In fact, among registered nurses in 2005, more than 35 

percent had an associate degree and more than 55 percent 

had a bachelor’s or higher degree. Executive secretaries 

and administrative assistants usually need 1 month to 1 

year of on-the-job training, and more than 45 percent of 

these workers have completed some college coursework. 

Most general maintenance workers learn on the job or in 

vocational classes they take during, or after, high school.
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 31

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Chart 1

Occupations with the most job openings for workers who do not have a 

bachelor’s degree, projected 2004-14 (thousands) 
Occupations with high earnings and lots of openings. According to BLS data, about 360 of the occupations expected to provide openings for high school graduates also had higher-than-average median earnings in 

2004. Chart 2 shows the high-paying occupations that are 

expected to have the most openings. All require technical 

skills or supervisory responsibilities. And all usually require moderate or long-term on-the-job training, college 

courses, or vocational classes. 

Nearly half of the occupations on the chart relate to 

construction or maintenance and repair. Some of these 

occupations require physical strength, but many, such 

as painters, do not. Completing a formal apprenticeship 

increases your chances of getting a job in these occupations. Taking algebra classes and vocational classes in 

high school also helps people qualify. Seven of these 

occupations have very high median earnings—above 

$43,600.

Another way to a high-paying career is to work 

toward becoming a supervisor. Many high school graduates transfer to managerial occupations as they gain experience. According to some studies, having formal training 

or taking college courses can increase the chances of 

becoming a supervisor.

Competing with college workers. Some of the 

occupations in these charts are expected to provide jobs 

for workers who have a bachelor’s degree, as well as for 

workers who don’t. When an occupation includes workers who have different levels of education, workers with 

more education are often better able to compete for jobs. 

This is particularly true if the occupations require academic skills, such as mathematics or science. 

If you do not have a bachelor’s degree, you can 

increase your competitiveness in a number of ways. For 

example, you can gain work or volunteer experience, take 

high school or college courses that relate to an occupation, or complete a certification.

Additionally, consider contacting your State’s labor 

market information office to learn about work, volunteer, 

education, and training opportunities. You can also find 

out which training programs have high placement rates 

and which occupations are most in demand in your area.

Most high-paying occupations require some 

training after high school.
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Chart 2

High-earning occupations with the most job openings for workers who 

do not have a bachelor’s degree, projected 2004-14 (thousands)

Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 33
34 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

Career fields with prospects

Good opportunities exist in almost every career field. The 

tables in this section show the expected job openings and 

common educational requirements for occupations in 

eight different fields. Career fields that are projected to 

have the most openings are discussed first.

The tables show occupations expected to have many 

openings over the 2004-14 decade. The tables also show 

2004 earnings and the education levels of current workers 

aged 25 to 44. Also listed is the specific type of training

—such as on-the-job training, a vocational certificate, 

or an associate degree—that BLS analysts deemed most 

significant in the occupation.

Office and administrative support. People who have 

good organizational skills can expect many opportunities in office and administrative support occupations. 

Between 2004 and 2014, these occupations are expected 

to provide about 7 million openings for workers who do 

not have a bachelor’s degree. You can qualify for many 

of these openings, such as those for receptionists and 

information clerks, right after high school without much 

additional training. (See table 1.) Summer jobs or high 

school classes in English, typing, and computer-related 

subjects can pave the way. 

Other occupations, such as customer service representatives or executive secretaries and administrative 

assistants, often require months of on-the-job training. 

Many office workers also take some college courses 

to hone their skills, earn certificates, and increase their 

chances for advancement. 

Maintenance, repair, and production. People who 

have mechanical skills can expect many opportunities; 

Table 1

Selected office and administrative support occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s

 or higher 

degree

Office clerks, general 958 $22,770 Short-term on-the-job training 39% 42% 20%

Customer service representatives 605 27,020 Moderate-term on-the-job training 37 41 22

Stock clerks and order fillers 579 20,100 Short-term on-the-job training 63 29 8

Receptionists and information clerks 524 21,830 Short-term on-the-job training 47 39 13

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks 503 28,570 Moderate-term on-the-job training 38 45 17

Executive secretaries and 

administrative assistants 488 34,970 Moderate-term on-the-job training 36 46 18

Tellers 313 21,120 Short-term on-the-job training 46 41 13

First-line supervisors/managers of office and 

administrative support workers 311 41,030

Work experience in a 

related occupation 33 38 29

Postal service mail carriers 105 44,450 Short-term on-the-job training 52 38 10

Legal secretaries 99 36,720 Postsecondary vocational award 36 46 18

nearly 5 million openings are projected in maintenance, 

repair, and production between 2004 and 2014.

As table 2 shows, education varies widely in this 

group. General maintenance and repair workers, who 

are projected to find the most openings, usually train on 

the job in a few months. Some workers also take vocational classes. Welders and machinists, who are among 

the highest paid workers shown on the table, often train 

in apprenticeship programs for a year or more, earning 

wages as they go. Automotive service technicians and 

mechanics also sometimes complete apprenticeship programs, but more often, they earn certificates at vocational 

schools.

Healthcare. For workers who like helping people 

and who have an interest in science, healthcare occupations are expected to provide some of the most plentiful 

and highest paying career opportunities in the economy. 

Overall, healthcare occupations are projected to provide 

more than 3 million job openings between 2004 and 2014 

for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s degree. Many of 

these openings are expected to come from fast job growth 

in the occupations. 

As table 3 shows, training varies widely in the 

healthcare field. For example, the most significant source 

of preparation for home health aides is 1 month or less of 

on-the-job training. Nursing aides usually need vocational training, but a large number of aides have also taken 

college courses—either to earn certifications, qualify for 

specific jobs, or prepare for other, higher paying healthcare occupations. Some aides may have completed 

college coursework unrelated to their job.

Having a job in one occupation while training for 
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 35

another is a common advancement strategy for healthcare 

workers. Emergency medical technicians and paramedics, 

for example, need certification and some formal training 

before they start working. With additional training and 

experience, these workers can progress to higher levels 

of certification and new job duties. To receive the highest level of certification, most paramedics must earn an 

associate degree.

In part because the skills they need are becoming 

more complex, healthcare workers are getting more training. Often, this extra education pays off. Although many 

dental assistants train on the job, for example, about 25 

percent of workers aged 25 and older have an associate 

degree. And median earnings of dental assistants who 

have an associate degree are about 20 percent higher 

than earnings of those who have a high school diploma 

or less education.

For some healthcare occupations, BLS analysts were 

able to draw conclusions about the level of competition 

that future jobseekers might face. Analysts gathered data, 

Table 3

Selected healthcare occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants 516 $20,980 Postsecondary vocational award 61% 33% 7%

Registered nurses 491 52,330 Associate degree 2 40 58

Home health aides 431 18,330 Short-term on-the-job training 61 33 7

Licensed practical and 

licensed vocational nurses 282 33,970 Postsecondary vocational award 23 71 6

Medical assistants 273 24,610 Moderate-term on-the-job training 35 53 11

Dental assistants 189 28,330 Moderate-term on-the-job training 33 57 10

Pharmacy technicians 107 23,650 Moderate-term on-the-job training 32 53 15

Emergency medical technicians and 

paramedics 74 25,310 Postsecondary vocational award 18 65 17

Radiologic technologists and technicians 57 43,350 Associate degree 9 68 23

Dental hygienists 56 58,350 Associate degree 4 66 30

Table 2

Selected maintenance, repair, and production occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Maintenance and repair workers, general 457 $30,710 Moderate-term on-the-job training 58% 34% 8%

Team assemblers 410 23,750 Moderate-term on-the-job training 72 23 6

Automotive service technicians and 

mechanics 339 32,450 Postsecondary vocational award 66 31 4

First-line supervisors/managers of 

mechanics, installers, and repairers 175 50,340

Work experience in a 

related occupation 46 42 12

Helpers—production workers 174 20,180 Short-term on-the-job training 80 15 5

First-line supervisors/managers of 

production and operating workers 173 44,740

Work experience in a 

related occupation 59 28 13

Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers 125 30,620 Long-term on-the-job training 75 23 2

Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and 

weighers 116 28,410 Moderate-term on-the-job training 53 33 14

Bus and truck mechanics and 

diesel engine specialists 108 35,780 Postsecondary vocational award 66 30 3

Machinists 102 33,960 Long-term on-the-job training 66 30 4
36 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

such as information on the number of people who have 

recently completed training programs, along with anecdotal evidence. Analysts concluded that over the 2004-14 

decade, there could be excellent opportunities in the following healthcare occupations: 

• Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians

• Dental assistants

• Dental hygienists

• Medical records and health information 

 technicians

• Nursing, psychiatric, and home health aids 

• Registered nurses

• Respiratory therapists.

These occupations usually employ people who have 

some on-the-job training or education after high school.

Construction. An interest in building can lead to a 

career with prospects. Nearly 2.5 million job openings 

are projected for workers entering construction occupations between 2004 and 2014. And most of these occupations pay more than the median for all occupations. 

There are many types of construction occupations. 

Some require outdoor work, others don’t; some involve a 

high level of mathematics, others require math skills that 

are more basic. Many workers in construction occupations start in apprenticeships, taking vocational classes 

and getting paid for on-the-job training. Some workers 

receive college credit for the vocational classes that they 

take. 

Table 4 shows the construction occupations that are 

expected to have the most job openings over the 2004-14 

decade. In 2004, median earnings for all but construction 

laborers were above the median for all occupations. 

For two of the occupations on the table—plumbers, 

pipefitters, and steamfitters and carpenters—BLS analysts had enough information to conclude that job openings could outnumber jobseekers in some years and in 

some locations. Prospects for these workers are expected 

to be excellent.

BLS analysts also concluded that three additional 

construction occupations—insulation workers; brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons; and roofers—are 

also expected to provide good opportunities.

Police and other protective service. Workers who 

keep the public safe from crime, disasters, and fire are 

projected to be in high demand. Between 2004 and 2014, 

protective service occupations are expected to provide 

about 1.1 million job openings for workers who don’t 

have a bachelor’s degree. As table 5 shows, most of 

those openings are projected to be in three occupations: 

security guards, police and sheriff’s patrol officers, and 

fire fighters. 

Security guards can usually qualify for their jobs 

with a high school diploma or less education. Once 

employed, security guards often receive some on-the-job 

training. Guards who carry weapons must have training 

and licensure. Guards working in specialized fields, such 

as nuclear power plant security, receive extensive formal 

training after being hired and usually earn more than 

other guards. 

Most police train on the job at service academies; 

many also have degrees. Fire fighters usually also have 

degrees and train at fire department training centers and 

academies. And almost all fire departments require fire 

fighters to be certified as emergency medical technicians. 

Table 4

Selected construction occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Carpenters 405 $34,900 Long-term on-the-job training 73% 21% 6%

First-line supervisors/managers of 

construction trades and extraction workers 209 50,450

Work experience in a

related occupation 65 25 10

Electricians 207 42,300 Long-term on-the-job training 51 43 6

Construction laborers 194 25,160 Moderate-term on-the-job training 80 14 6

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters 193 41,290 Long-term on-the-job training 67 28 5

Operating engineers and other 

construction equipment operators 142 35,360 Moderate-term on-the-job training 77 20 2

Painters, construction and maintenance 131 30,260 Moderate-term on-the-job training 75 18 7

Cement masons and concrete finishers 72 31,400 Moderate-term on-the-job training 83 14 3

Sheet metal workers 72 35,560 Long-term on-the-job training 67 31 2

Roofers 65 30,840 Moderate-term on-the-job training 88 10 3
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 37

Science and engineering. Occupations related to 

science and engineering are expected to provide many 

high-paying opportunities, especially for those who have 

the right kind of training. About 370,000 openings in 

science-related occupations are expected between 2004 

and 2014 for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree.

Engineering technicians, two types of which are 

shown on table 6, often have an associate degree. Most 

take college algebra and trigonometry. Some technicians 

earn a vocational certificate instead of a degree.

Survey technicians, also on the table, sometimes 

begin work right after high school. But many complete 

additional training, such as an associate degree or apprenticeship. 

Computer. Rapid growth in information technology 

is expected to create many openings for people who like 

working with computers. Openings in computer-related 

occupations for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree are expected to total about 324,000 between 2004 

and 2014.

In this field, credentials, such as industry certifications or an associate degree in a computer-related field, 

are especially important, in part because many college 

graduates compete for these jobs.

Some occupations are easier to enter than others 

for people who have skills but not a degree. According 

to industry experts, computer-savvy people who don’t 

have a bachelor’s degree may find it easiest to enter the 

occupations of computer support specialist, network and 

Table 6

Selected science and engineering occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Electrical and electronic engineering 

technicians 56 $46,310 Associate degree 28% 54% 18%

Civil engineering technicians 33 38,480 Associate degree 28 54 18

Surveying and mapping technicians 30 30,380 Moderate-term on-the-job training 47 43 11

Architectural and civil drafters 27 39,190 Postsecondary vocational award 16 62 22

Industrial engineering technicians 22 43,590 Associate degree 28 54 18

Table 5

Selected protective service occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Security guards 349 $20,320 Short-term on-the-job training 51% 36% 12%

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers 164 45,210 Long-term on-the-job training 20 50 30

Fire fighters 150 38,330 Long-term on-the-job training 22 58 20

Correctional officers and jailers 118 33,600 Moderate-term on-the-job training 39 48 13

Lifeguards, ski patrol, and other recreational 

protective service workers 73 16,540 Short-term on-the-job training 33 38 28

Crossing guards 37 19,300 Short-term on-the-job training 72 22 5

First-line supervisors/managers of 

police and detectives 31 64,430

Work experience in a 

related occupation 17 53 30

First-line supervisors/managers of 

fire fighting and prevention workers 25 58,920

Work experience in a 

related occupation 14 61 25

Detectives and criminal investigators 16 53,990

Work experience in a 

related occupation 12 35 53

First-line supervisors/managers of 

correctional officers 11 44,720

Work experience in a 

related occupation 25 49 25
38 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

computer systems administrator, or network systems and 

data communication analyst.

The computer support specialist occupation is 

projected to provide the most openings for those who 

don’t have a bachelor’s or higher degree. (See table 7.) 

Specialists who don’t have a 4-year degree increase their 

marketability by earning certifications or getting computer experience in other jobs.

Networking and computer systems administrators 

are also expected to have opportunities, whatever their 

level of education. Workers who don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree often begin their careers as computer support specialists, switching into the more highly paid administrator 

occupation after they gain experience. 

Web masters, computer security professionals, and 

Local Area Network (LAN) support staff are also expected to be in high demand. All of these workers are part of 

the occupation of network systems and data communications analysts. Many have a bachelor’s degree, but others 

substitute coursework, experience, or certifications. 

Each of these occupations had earnings that were 

above the median for all workers in 2004. But the earnings of workers who have a bachelor’s degree are included in those figures; earnings might be lower for workers 

who have less education.

Education and personal service. Career opportunities will continue to be plentiful for people interested 

in working with children or providing personal services 

to the public. About 2.6 million openings are expected 

in these fields between 2004 and 2014 for workers who 

Table 8

Selected education and personal service occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Childcare workers 525 $16,760 Short-term on-the-job training 52% 34% 14%

Teacher assistants 433 19,410 Short-term on-the-job training 41 43 17

Personal and home care aides 400 16,900 Short-term on-the-job training 60 30 10

Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists 215 19,800 Postsecondary vocational award 53 43 4

Preschool teachers, except special education 101 20,980 Postsecondary vocational award 21 31 48

First-line supervisors/managers of 

personal service workers 89 30,350

Work experience in a 

related occupation 49 37 14

Nonfarm animal caretakers 65 17,460 Short-term on-the-job training 55 32 12

Social and human service assistants 55 24,270

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 15 28 57

Recreation workers 45 19,320 Short-term on-the-job training 19 29 52

Library technicians 41 24,940 Postsecondary vocational award 20 46 33

Table 7

Selected computer occupations

Occupation

Net job 

openings 

for workers 

without a 

bachelor’s 

degree, 

projected 

2004-14 

(thousands)

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2004

Most significant source of 

postsecondary education 

or training

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 

with...

High 

school 

diploma 

or less

Some 

college 

or 

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or higher 

degree

Computer support specialists 93 $40,430 Associate degree 17% 42% 41%

Computer systems analysts 57 66,460 Bachelor’s degree 9 25 66

Network and computer 

systems administrators 56 58,190 Bachelor’s degree 13 35 51

Network systems and data 

communications analysts 52 60,600 Bachelor’s degree 9 31 60

Computer and information systems managers 31 92,570 Bachelor’s plus experience 7 23 70

Computer programmers 27 62,890 Bachelor’s degree 6 22 72

Computer operators 24 31,070 Moderate-term on-the-job training 33 43 24
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 39

don’t have a bachelor’s degree.

Childcare workers, who are expected to have the 

most openings for high school graduates among occupations in this group, often qualify after a short period of 

training. But some earn an associate degree and certification to increase their opportunities. (See table 8.) 

Teacher assistants are often required to have an 

associate degree or to pass an exam, but many others 

train on the job. 

Working in education and personal service does not 

usually bring above-average earnings, however. Among 

the occupations on the table, only management occupations had median earnings higher than $28,580, the 

median for all workers in 2004. 

How these numbers were developed

Measuring job outlook by education is complicated, 

and there are many ways to do it. This analysis used job 

openings as a way to measure outlook because the number of job openings helps to determine how easy it will 

be for workers to enter an occupation. First, the number 

of future job openings in each occupation was estimated. 

Then, survey data were used as an objective way to estimate how many job openings would be filled by workers 

with various levels of education.

Like any analysis based on projections and estimates, 

however, this one has limitations. Understanding these 

limitations will help you to better use the results. The 

methods and limitations are described in detail below.

Methods used 

To determine job prospects, BLS analysts started by 

projecting the total number of job openings available 

between 2004 and 2014 for workers entering an occupation for the first time. Next, analysts estimated how many 

of those openings would be filled by workers who do not 

have a bachelor’s degree and how many openings would 

be in high-paying occupations. 

Job openings. Job openings come from two 

sources: the need to fill newly created positions 

and the need to replace workers who leave an occupation permanently. To estimate the number 

of openings that will come from newly created 

positions, analysts projected how much each 

occupation would grow or decline between 

2004 and 2014.

There are many reasons why the number 

of jobs in an occupation might change. Sometimes, the demand for a certain type of good 

or service increases—for example, an aging 

population creates the need for more healthcare 

services and, as a result, more healthcare technicians. The way a good is produced or a service is 

provided also can create more jobs in a particular occupation, such as when library technicians 

gain jobs faster than librarians do because employment of technicians is considered a more 

cost-effective way to provide library services. 

Many occupations that employ people who 

do not have a bachelor’s degree are projected to 

gain jobs rapidly. In fact, for 6 of the 10 fastest 

growing occupations, a bachelor’s degree is not 

Healthcare occupations are expected to 

be among the fastest growing and 

highest paying in the 

economy.
40 Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Fall 2006

the most significant source of training. The occupation 

projected to be the fastest growing of all occupations 

over the 2004-14 decade is home health aide. It usually 

employs people who train on the job. 

The need to replace workers who leave an occupation 

permanently is expected to provide even more openings 

than job growth will. To estimate how many workers will 

need to be replaced during the 2004-14 decade, analysts 

studied both past trends in each occupation and the ages 

of current workers. In some occupations, workers usually 

stay for many years. In other occupations, people tend to 

leave more quickly. These considerations affect replacement needs. 

Openings by education. After analysts projected the 

total number of job openings in each occupation, they 

estimated how many of those openings would be filled by 

workers who had one of three different education levels: 

a high school diploma or less, some college or an associate degree, or a bachelor’s or higher degree. Analysts 

determined which levels of education were significant in 

each occupation by looking at the education levels of 

current workers as reported in data from the 2002-04 

Current Population Surveys. If at least 20 percent of 

workers had a particular level of education, that level 

was deemed significant.

Expected job openings were divided among each of 

the significant education levels, according to how common that education level was for workers in the occupation. For example, flight attendants include workers 

who have each of the three levels of education: About 20 

percent have a high school diploma or less, about 47 percent have completed some college or an associate degree, 

and about 33 percent have a bachelor’s or higher degree. 

Therefore, the expected openings for flight attendants 

were divided among these categories using the corresponding percentages. The openings for workers who had 

less education than a bachelor’s degree were added to the 

totals used in this article.

In addition to describing the three educational attainment categories, this article discusses specific education 

and training requirements for some occupations. These 

discussions are based on occupational analyses conducted for the Occupational Outlook Handbook. 

Openings by earnings. The earnings data in this 

article are from the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics survey. The survey reflects the 2004 earnings of all 

workers, without regard to education level or experience. 

Also, the survey does not include self-employed workers. 

In this analysis, occupations were considered high-paying if their median earnings were above the median for 

all workers in 2004. 

Limitations of the data

To measure total job openings and openings by education 

level, BLS analysts needed to make some assumptions 

about the future. First, analysts assumed that the education levels in each occupation would remain roughly the 

Over the 2004-14 decade, BLS 

projects about 2.6 million openings

in education and personal service 

occupations for workers who 

don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree.
Fall 2006 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly 41

same over the 2004-14 decade. In reality, the educational 

characteristics of some occupations change over time. 

Many occupations—such as registered nurses and police 

officers—have shown a gradual increase in the education 

levels of their workers.

Analysts also ignored education levels that were 

uncommon in an occupation; as stated previously, if less 

than 20 percent of workers in an occupation had a given 

level of education, that level of education was ignored. 

So, for example, even though 16 percent of today’s 

massage therapists have a high school diploma or less, 

none of that occupation’s future openings were slated for 

workers with that level of education.

Another limitation of this study is that it focuses on 

the number of job openings expected in an occupation. 

Job openings give only a partial view of the prospects 

that workers can expect. The number of people who will 

compete for those openings is also important. For most 

occupations, BLS analysts do not have enough information about the future supply of workers to analyze the 

competition for jobs in specific occupations.

Finally, the accuracy of this study is limited by its use 

of survey data. Surveys always have some error because 

not every worker is counted and because the information 

gathered is sometimes incorrect. The education levels of 

many of the occupations studied here, including some in 

the tables, could not be counted with enough statistical 

accuracy because the number of workers surveyed was 

too small. In those cases, analysts substituted the education levels of similar occupations or groups of occupations that had larger numbers of workers. 

Despite the assumptions and limitations of this analysis, however, there is evidence that the methods used produce accurate results. When existing jobs are separated 

into educational categories using this method, the results 

closely match current numbers. 

For more information

To learn more about the occupations described here and 

about the hundreds of other occupations expected to 

provide openings for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s degree, see the 2006-07 Occupational Outlook 

Handbook, available in many libraries and career centers 

and online at www.bls.gov/oco. The Handbook describes 

the job outlook, education and training requirements, 

job duties, and more for nearly 270 occupations. 

Another BLS publication, the 2006-07 Occupational Projections and Training Data bulletin, explains 

in greater detail the methods used in this study and lists 

the projected job openings and worker education levels 

for every occupation studied by the BLS Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections. The 

bulletin is available online at www.bls.gov/emp/optd/

home.htm and is for sale by calling the Superintendent 

of Documents toll-free at 1 (866) 512-1800. 

The Occupational Outlook Quarterly also has articles that describe occupations that don’t usually require 

a bachelor’s degree. For example, the summer 2005 issue 

(www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2005/summer/contents.htm) 

contains articles about radiation therapists and machinery 

manufacturing. In other issues, the Quarterly describes 

training and education for workers who don’t have a 

bachelor’s degree; these include “Apprenticeship: Career 

training, credentials—and a paycheck in your pocket,” 

in the summer 2002 issue (available online at 

www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2002/ summer/art01.pdf), and 

“Associate degree: Two years to a career or a jump start 

to a bachelor’s degree,” in the winter 2002-03 issue (online at www.bls.gov/opub/ ooq/2002/winter/art01.pdf). 

And to help workers prepare for a career, the U.S. 

Department of Education offers information about 

financial aid for people attending 2-year colleges, 4-year 

colleges, and vocational schools. Call the financial aid 

hotline toll-free at 1 (800) 4FED-AID (433-3243); write 

the Federal Student Aid Information Center, P.O. Box 84, 

Washington, D.C. 20044-0084; or visit online at 

www.studentaid.ed.gov. 

Studying potential job openings is only a starting 

point when deciding on a career. Many other considerations are important, including individual skills and 

interests, personal circumstances, and the needs of local 

employers. To explore these and other factors in making 

your career decision, visit State labor market information 

offices and career centers. Information is available online 

at www.servicelocator.org or by calling the U.S. Department of Labor’s toll-free helpline, 1 (877) US2-JOBS 

(872-5627). 

Opportunities are as varied as the workers who seek 

them. And when it comes to training, finding what is best 

for you is one of the surest routes to reward.