3

W

ith the release of estimates for May 2003, national

employment, hours, and earnings data produced

from the Current Employment Statistics (CES)

program incorporate several important changes that affect

data analysis and comparison. These changes include:

• Conversion to the 2002 North American Industry

Classification System (NAICS),

• Completion of the CES sample redesign to a

probability-based sample,

• Incorporation of March 2002 benchmarks, and

• Introduction of concurrent seasonal adjustment.

Conversion to the 2002 NAICS

With the release of the May 2003 data, all CES national

series have been converted from industry coding based on

the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to

industry coding based on the 2002 version of the North

American Industry Classification System (NAICS). The SIC

code structure was first developed in the 1930s, when the

economy was dominated by the manufacturing sector.

Through the years there was little change to the original

structure, and there was a mixture of ways to categorize the

economic activity of establishments. Some establishments

were categorized into industries based on demand groupings

and others were categorized based on supply groupings.

NAICS classifies establishments into industries based

solely on their supply function. That is, establishments are

classified based on the activity in which they are primarily

engaged. NAICS was developed in cooperation with the

United States’ North American Free Trade Agreement

(NAFTA) partners, Canada and Mexico, in an effort to

standardize their economic data series. NAICS was first

released in 1997 and will be reviewed and updated every

five years by all three North American countries. This CES

benchmark release is based on the 2002 version of NAICS.

NAICS doubles the amount of top-level industry

groupings, known as sectors. There are 20 broad sectors,

compared with only 10 major industry divisions under SIC.

In addition to these sectors, BLS and its U.S. NAICS partners

(the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the U.S. Census

Revisions to the Current Employment Statistics

National Estimates Effective May 2003

Sharon Strifas

Bureau) have further aggregated industry classifications into

11 supersectors. Above the supersectors, are two more

aggregations, the commonly known domains of goodsproducing and service-providing.

The numbering system differs in NAICS from that of the

SIC, to allow finer detail. The greatest detail is at the sixdigit level, and the highest level of detail is the abovementioned supersector level, as seen in the example

presented in exhibit 1. The five-digit detail, or the NAICS

industry detail, allows for international comparison with

the NAFTA partners. Further national detail is allowed at

the six-digit level.

With the implementation of NAICS came several notable

classification changes that affect the CES. First, auxiliary

establishments, which are engaged primarily in performing

management or support activities for other establishments

of the “parent” company are now given an industry code

denoting their main activity, without regard to the code

assigned to the parent company. Auxiliary establishments

are now classified within sector 55, management of

companies and enterprises, which is part of the professional

and business services supersector.

Second, although the logging industry was reclassified

from the SIC manufacturing sector to the NAICS agriculture,

forestry, fishing and hunting sector, the CES program will

continue to treat it as part of the nonfarm sector. To keep the

logging industry in scope, the CES program will include it

in the natural resources and mining supersector.

Third, NAICS manufacturing recognizes some new hightech industries, such as semiconductor machinery

manufacturing and fiber optic cable manufacturing; there is

also a new subsector for computer and electronic product

Sharon Strifas is an economist in the Division of Current Employment Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics,

Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691-6555; e-mail:

CESInfo@bls.gov.

Exhibit 1. An example of the NAICS numbering hierarchy

used by the Current Employment Statistics program

Level

Hierarchy for NAICS

code 31-334511

Supersector ......................... 31 (Manufacturing)

Sector (two-digit) ................. 33 (Durable goods manufacturing)

Subsector (three-digit) ........ 334 (Computer and electronic

products)

Industry group (four-digit) ... 3345 (Electronic instruments)

NAICS industry (five-digit) .. 33451 (Electronic instruments)

U.S. industry (six-digit) ....... 334511 (Search, detection, and

navigation instruments)
4

manufacturing. Also, the publishing industry has been

moved out of manufacturing and into the new information

sector. The new information sector, also a BLS supersector,

is composed of seven subsectors, containing 34 industries

that produce, disseminate, or process information and

cultural products. Twenty of these industries are new,

including Internet service providers, sound recording

studios, and cable program distributors.

Fourth, NAICS 2002 includes two new industries in

wholesale trade: business to business electronic markets

and wholesale trade agents and brokers.

In order to avoid time series breaks, all national CES

series were reconstructed back to at least 1990. At the

supersector and higher levels, the reconstruction extends

back to 1939, the previously existing start date of total

nonfarm and most major industry division level series. For

finer levels of detail, the series that are nearly identical

between SIC and NAICS were reconstructed back to the

previously existing start dates. For each NAICS series that

is not closely related to one SIC series, the start date is 1990.

The reconstruction methodology is based on the first

quarter 2001 unemployment insurance (UI) microdata, which

were coded on both an SIC and NAICS basis. SIC-to-NAICS

ratios were established from this dual coded file; the ratios

were used to map employment from the SIC series to the

corresponding NAICS counterparts. For example, the March

2001 employment ratios for NAICS subsector 325 indicate

that 95 percent of it is formed from SIC 28, 3 percent of it

comes from SIC 30, and 2 percent is from SIC 38. These

ratios were applied to the SIC series and the results summed

to derive the NAICS series. The supersector employment interchangeability, or distribution of employment

between SIC divisions and NAICS supersectors, can be seen

in exhibit 2.

A comparable procedure is used for the hours and earnings

series. Those NAICS series are produced from a weighted

average of the SIC component series, the weights being the

NAICS/SIC ratios. An example of the hours and earnings

reconstruction is illustrated in exhibit 3.

New hours and earnings levels were recomputed using

data from the NAICS-based probability sample. The new

levels for average weekly hours and average hourly earnings

series were computed from the new probability sample

averages for March 2001-02. The over-the-month changes

computed using the reconstruction methodology were then

applied. With this methodology, the overall CES seasonal

patterns are preserved, as are the CES time series properties.

In other words, there are no outliers or level shifts.

While this ratio method was the basic technique used in

the reconstruction, another method was tested and used for

a small number of series as well. This alternative method

uses a longitudinal UI database (LDB) which stores firmlevel information on business births, deaths, and

employment levels over a 10-year time span. The LDB

aggregation method takes the 1990-2000 LDB file that has

been recoded for NAICS and aggregates the micro-level

records to derive macro totals by industry and geographic

area. This procedure is computationally simple and uses

actual firm-level data that capture real economic trends (to

the extent that firms did not change their industry

classification over time). On the other hand, the LDB has

not been edited or maintained as a macro series, unlike

published CES totals. Nor has it ever accepted corrections

that are made to the data submitted to the ES-202 reports.

Nevertheless, for a small number of series, this method

proved to be the most accurate one. Both methods have

their basis in the single quarter of UI microdata that was

dual coded with both SIC and NAICS.

Changes in CES scope. The industry support activities for

animal production or NAICS 11-1152 (previously part of

animal services, except veterinary or SIC 075) is no longer

considered in-scope for the CES program. As indicated

earlier, logging, or NAICS 11-113310, is now within the

natural resources and mining supersector; under the SIC

system, this industry was within manufacturing. These

changes along with some in the Federal Government series,

as described below, slightly affect the total nonfarm

employment level. There will be no series breaks as a result

of the changes, as the entire total nonfarm history has been

reconstructed.

Publishing industries. The publishing industries have

moved from the manufacturing division under SIC to the

information supersector under NAICS. Therefore, the CES

program no longer collects payroll and hours of production

workers in these industries, but rather the payroll and hours

of nonsupervisory workers. Because of this change, data

series for nonsupervisory workers, average weekly hours,

and average hourly earnings for the following industries

begin publication in January 2003: Publishing industries,

except Internet (NAICS 50-511000); newspaper, book, and

directory publishers (NAICS 50-511100); newspaper

publishers (NAICS 50-511110); periodical publishers

(NAICS 50-511120); book publishers (NAICS 50-511130);

and directory and mailing list publishers (NAICS 50-

511140).

Changes to Federal Government series

The CES series for Federal Government employment has

been revised slightly in scope and definition due to a change

in source data and estimation methods. The former national

series was an end-of-month count of Federal employees

produced by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management, and

it excluded some workers, mostly employees of U.S.

Department of Defense-owned establishments such as

military base commissaries. Beginning with the collection

of data for May 2003, however, the CES national series will

include these workers, and the series employment level will

shift upward as a consequence. Additionally, Federal

Government employment will now be estimated from a

sample of Federal establishments, will be benchmarked
5

SIC division

 Mining Construction Manu- WholesaleRetail trade Services facturing trade

Natural Employment .. 515.9 (

2

) 75,136 (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

)

resources Percent ......... 87.3 12.7

and mining

Construction Employment .. 16.9 6,288.7 (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) 86.3 78.9

Percent ......... .3 97.2 1.3 1.2

Manufacturing Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) 16,502.5 (

2

) 31.4 147.9 (

2

) 128.7

Percent ......... 98.2 0.2 0.9 .8

Trade, Employment .. (

2

) 1.0 70.8 4,360.0 6,592.5 14,381.3 (

2

) 125.3

transportation, Percent ......... .0 .3 17.1 25.8 56.3 .5

and utilities

Information Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) 751.9 1,670.3 (

2

) 1.2 9.2 1,262.7

Percent ......... 20.3 45.2 .0 .2 34.2

Financial Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) 37.9 (

2

) 25.1 6,881.8 671.4

activities Percent ......... .5 .3 90.4 8.8

Professional Employment .. 15.7 66.3 613.0 657.8 155.5 373.5 431.6 14,172.8

and business Percent ......... .1 .4 3.7 4.0 .9 2.3 2.6 86.0

services

Education and Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) 4.4 101.2 (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) 14,602.0

health Percent ......... .0 .7 99.3

services

Leisure and Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) (

2

) 24.1 (

2

) 8,147.2 8.4 3,402.2

hospitality Percent ......... .2 70.3 .1 29.4

Other services Employment .. (

2

) (

2

) 12.8 5.1 (

2

) 6.2 103.3 3,614.0

Percent ......... .3 .1 .2 2.8 96.5

1 Data are derived from March 2001 unemployment insurance data.

2 Less than 1,000.

Transportation

and public

utilities

Finance,

insurance,

and

real estate

NAICS

supersector

Exhibit 2. SIC-to-NAICS employment ratios 1

(Numbers in thousands)

Category

Exhibit 3. Hours and earnings reconstruction example using NAICS code 31-333414—HVAC and commercial

refrigration equipment 1

1987 SIC structure 2002 NAICS structure

1987 SIC code Ratio 2

Production Aggregate Aggregate Production Aggregate Aggregate

workers hours payrolls workers hours payrolls

3433 ........................ 0.22 12,453 537,969 $5,379,690 2,740 118,353 $1,183,532

3569 ........................ .75 65,891 2,754,230 34,427,875 49,418 2,065,673 25,820,906

3634 ........................ .13 12,365 580,292 9,864,964 1,607 75,438 1,282,445

Sum 3 53,765 2,259,464 28,286,883

1 Data are derived from March 2001 unemployment insurance

data.

2 The ratio represents the percent of employment in the SIC

industry that went into a specific NAICS industry.

3 New NAICS data where:

Production workers = sum of production workers = 53,765

Average weekly hours = aggregate hours/production workers

= 2,259,464/53,765 = 42.0

Average hourly earnings = aggregate payrolls/aggregate hours

= $28,286,883/2,259,464 = $12.52
6

annually to counts from UI tax records, and will reflect

employee counts as of the pay period including the 12th of

the month, consistent with other CES industry series. The

historical time series for Federal Government employment

has been revised to reflect these changes.

Completion of the CES sample redesign

Beginning with benchmark revisions in March 2000, BLS

has been phasing in a probability-based sample design to

replace an older quota-based sample design. The CES

estimates had been based on a quota sample since the

inception of the program over 70 years ago. Although quota

samples are known to be at risk for potentially significant

biases, the large sample size and annual benchmarking to

full population counts made the risk of bias less severe.

However, following a review by the American Statistical

Association in 1995, BLS embarked on a sample redesign

effort to convert to a probability sample for the CES program.

Probability sampling is the internationally recognized

standard for sample surveys. Unlike quota sampling,

probability sampling ensures a proper representation of the

universe of nonfarm business establishments through

randomized selection techniques.

The new CES sample design. The new design is a stratified,

simple random sample of worksites, clustered by UI account

number. The UI account number is a major identifier on the

previously discussed BLS LDB file, which serves as both

the sample frame and the benchmark source for the CES

employment estimates. The sample strata, or subpopulations,

are defined by State, industry, and establishment

employment size, yielding a State-based design. The

sampling rate for each stratum is determined through a method

known as optimum allocation, which distributes a fixed

number of sample units across a set of strata to minimize the

overall variance, or sampling error, on the primary estimate

of interest. The total nonfarm employment level is the primary

estimate of interest, and the new design gives top priority to

measuring it as precisely as possible, or, in other words,

minimizing the statistical error around the statewide total

nonfarm employment estimates.

For the CES redesign, the number of sample units drawn

initially was fixed at the approximate size of the existing

CES sample for each State—the sample size assumed to be

supportable by current program resources. However, after a

few years of experience, BLS recognized that the sample

size needed to be reduced to support the more costly data

collection and followup techniques needed to sustain viable

response ratios. Therefore, the overall sample size was

reduced by approximately 20 percent with the March 2001

sample update. Even with the sample size reduction, the

CES program can support the publication of considerable

industry and geographic detail within a State, and provide

highly reliable national CES estimates at the total nonfarm

and detailed industry levels.

The sampling frame and the CES sample are updated

twice a year with new quarters of UI-based universe data.

This frame maintenance helps to keep the sample up to date

by adding new firm births and deleting business deaths. In

addition, the new design specifies an annual update process

that includes sampling frame maintenance and the redrawing

of the entire sample for the first quarter of each year. Frame

maintenance provides for the updating of industry, size class,

and metropolitan area designations and for the merging of

semiannual birth samples into the overall frame. A high

degree of overlap is expected at each annual update because

each UI account is ordered on the frame with a permanent

random number (PRN). This technique assigns random

numbers to all UI accounts on the universe frame at the time

they first appear and then orders the frame by PRN. The

allocation for each sampling cell is fulfilled by working

down the ordered PRN list until the full complement of

needed units is drawn. Because the random numbers are

permanent, and thus remain in essentially the same order

on the frame, this technique minimizes cancellation of

existing sample units and the need to solicit replacement

units.

Estimation formulas. An improved estimator also has been

developed for the CES survey to support the new sample

design. The primary difference from the former CES

estimator is the application of a weight to each sample unit

in the estimation process. The weights are derived from

population sampling fractions and are a standard feature of

probability sample estimators. A sampled unit’s weight is

the inverse of its probability of selection. The new estimator

for the all-employee series is a ratio estimator, known as the

weighted link relative.

In order to prevent series breaks in the hours and earnings

estimates during the redesign phase-in, the initial

implementation of the redesign utilized the weighted link

relative estimator for these data types, and the first month’s

redesign estimate linked from the final month’s estimate

produced under the quota-sample design. That was different

from the usual CES procedure of initializing new hours and

earnings series with the sample average value for the first

month and then applying a ‘‘link and taper’’ methodology.

That methodology accounts for the over-the-month change

in the sampled units, but also includes a tapering feature

used to keep the estimates close to the overall sample

average over time. The taper is considered to be a level

correction. However, following this procedure could have

resulted in series breaks in hours and earnings series for

each major industry division as it was introduced, and at

the total private level as well. With the completion of the

CES shift to NAICS, hours and earnings are again estimated

by the ‘‘link and taper’’ methodology.

Another methodological change introduced with the

sample redesign is a net birth/death model used to estimate

the residual portion of birth employment not accounted for
7

through improved sampling techniques. Net birth/death

modeling replaces bias adjustment. Net birth/death modeling

is more fully described later in this article. Finally, it is now

possible to publish sampling errors and confidence intervals,

standard survey accuracy measures that were not directly

applicable to the nonprobability design used in prior years.

The overall accuracy of the employment estimates is still

best measured by the annual benchmark revisions, because

those revisions cover the total estimation error associated

with the CES employment series.

NAICS probability-based estimation began in April 2001

for all but four supersectors. The NAICS probability-based

estimates began in April 2002 for professional and business

services, education and health services, leisure and

hospitality, and other services.

Summary of the benchmark revisions

The March 2002 benchmark level for total nonfarm

employment is 129,672,000; this figure is 203,000 below

the NAICS sample-based estimate for March 2002, an

adjustment of 0.2 percent. The published over-the-year

change for March 2001 to March 2002 has been revised

downward by 313,000 or 0.2 percent. The difference

between these two measures is accounted for by the

previously mentioned changes in the scope of the CES series

for Federal Government and the animal services industry

under SIC. Table 1 shows the total nonfarm percent

differences of benchmark revisions for the past ten years.

Table 2 shows the nonfarm employment benchmarks by

industry for March 2002.

Revisions in the post-benchmark period

Post-benchmark period estimates from April 2002 to March

2003 were calculated for each month based on new

benchmark levels, new net birth/death figures, and a slightly

new sample composition resulting from the annual sample

update (beginning with October). The post-benchmark

period estimates for this benchmark year, due to the NAICS

conversion, are first-time NAICS probability estimates on

the new benchmark level rather than recomputed estimates.

(See table 3.)

Text table A shows the net birth/death model figures for

the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April

2002 to March 2003, the cumulative net birth/death model

added 469,000.

Why benchmarks differ from estimates

A benchmark revision is the difference between the

benchmark level for a given March and its corresponding

sample-based estimate. The overall accuracy of the

establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of this

difference. The benchmark revision often is regarded as a

proxy for total survey error, but this does not take into

account error in the universe data. The employment counts

obtained from quarterly unemployment insurance tax forms

are administrative data that reflect employer recordkeeping

practices and differing State laws and procedures. The

benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as

the difference between two independently derived

employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

Like all sample surveys, the establishment survey is

susceptible to two sources of error, sampling error and

nonsampling error. Sampling error is present any time a

sample is used to make inferences about a population. The

magnitude of the sampling error, or variance, relates directly

to sample size and the percentage of the universe covered

by that sample. The CES monthly survey captures slightly

under one-third of the universe, exceptionally high by usual

sampling standards. This coverage insures a small sampling

error at the total nonfarm employment level.

Both the universe counts and the establishment survey

estimates are subject to nonsampling errors common to all

surveys—coverage, response, and processing errors. The

error structures for both the CES monthly survey and the UI

universe are complex. Still, the two programs generally

produce consistent total employment figures, each

validating the other. Over the last decade, annual benchmark

revisions at the total nonfarm level have averaged 0.3

percent, with an absolute range from less than 0.05 percent

to 0.7 percent.

Benchmark revisions effects for other series

The routine benchmarking process results in revisions in

the series on women workers and production or nonsupervisory workers. There are no benchmark employment

levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios

Industry 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2

Total nonfarm ............................... 0.2 0.7 0.5 (

3

) 0.4 (

3

) 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.2

Total private ........................................ .3 .7 .5 0.1 .5 0.1 .2 .3 -.2 -.4

Table 1. Percent differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates, March 1993-2002 1

1 Differences are based on comparisons of final published March

estimates and benchmark levels, as originally published.

2Beginning with the March 2002 benchmark, there is a small

change in the scope of the CES survey. Employment in support

activities for animal production, or NAICS 11-1152, is no longer

included. In addition, Federal employment is estimated using a

sample and benchmarked annually to ES-202 universe counts,

rather than relying on monthly U.S. Office of Personnel Management

employment counts.

3 Less than 0.05 percent.
8

Table 2. Nonfarm employment benchmarks by industry sector and selected industry detail, March 2002

(In thousands)

Industry Benchmark

Total nonfarm ........................................................................................................................... 129,672

Total private ................................................................................................................................. 107,836

Goods-producing ............................................................................................................................ 22,365

Natural resources and mining ................................................................................................................... 574

Logging ............................................................................................................................................ 67

Mining ...................................................................................................................................................... 507

Oil and gas extraction ........................................................................................................................ 122

Mining, except oil and gas .................................................................................................................. 209

Coal mining ...................................................................................................................................... 76

Support activities for mining ............................................................................................................... 176

Construction ............................................................................................................................................... 6,416

Construction of buildings .................................................................................................................... 1,519

Heavy and civil engineering construction .......................................................................................... 862

Specialty trade contractors ................................................................................................................ 4,036

Manufacturing ............................................................................................................................................. 15,375

Durable goods ........................................................................................................................................ 9,585

Wood products ................................................................................................................................... 551

Nonmetallic mineral products ............................................................................................................. 511

Primary metals .................................................................................................................................... 514

Fabricated metal products .................................................................................................................. 1,557

Machinery ........................................................................................................................................... 1,253

Computer and electronic products .................................................................................................... 1,553

Computer and peripheral equipment .............................................................................................. 258

Communications equipment ........................................................................................................... 197

Semiconductors and electronic components ................................................................................ 544

Electronic instruments .................................................................................................................... 456

Electrical equipment and appliances .................................................................................................. 507

Transportation equipment ................................................................................................................... 1,840

Furniture and related products ........................................................................................................... 610

Miscellaneous manufacturing ............................................................................................................. 690

Nondurable goods .................................................................................................................................. 5,790

Food manufacturing ............................................................................................................................ 1,510

Beverages and tobacco products ...................................................................................................... 204

Textile mills .......................................................................................................................................... 297

Textile product mills ............................................................................................................................ 195

Apparel ................................................................................................................................................ 366

Leather and allied products ................................................................................................................ 51

Paper and paper products ................................................................................................................. 550

Printing and related support activities ................................................................................................ 718

Petroleum and coal products .............................................................................................................. 116

Chemicals ........................................................................................................................................... 933

Plastics and rubber products ............................................................................................................. 852

Service-providing ............................................................................................................................ 107,307

Private service-providing ............................................................................................................ 85,471

Trade, transportation, and utilities ............................................................................................................. 25,219

Wholesale trade ...................................................................................................................................... 5,634

Electronic markets and agents and brokers ..................................................................................... 620

Retail trade .............................................................................................................................................. 14,810

Motor vehicle and parts dealers ........................................................................................................ 1,860

Automobile dealers .......................................................................................................................... 1,246

Furniture and home furnishings stores .............................................................................................. 530

Electronics and appliance stores ....................................................................................................... 529

Building material and garden supply stores ....................................................................................... 1,143

Food and beverage stores ................................................................................................................. 2,862

Health and personal care stores ....................................................................................................... 935

Gasoline stations ................................................................................................................................ 894

Clothing and clothing accessories stores ......................................................................................... 1,273

Sporting goods , hobby, book, and music stores ............................................................................... 651

General merchandise stores ............................................................................................................. 2,745

Department stores .......................................................................................................................... 1,658

Miscellaneous store retailers ............................................................................................................. 945

Nonstore retailers ............................................................................................................................... 444
9

Transportation and warehousing ........................................................................................................... 4,178

Air transportation ................................................................................................................................ 553

Rail transportation ............................................................................................................................... 220

Water transportation ........................................................................................................................... 52

Truck transportation ........................................................................................................................... 1,319

Transit and ground passenger transportation ................................................................................... 391

Pipeline transportation ........................................................................................................................ 42

Scenic and sightseeing transportation ............................................................................................... 21

Support activities for transportation ................................................................................................... 517

Couriers and messengers ................................................................................................................. 558

Warehousing and storage .................................................................................................................. 506

Utilities ..................................................................................................................................................... 597

Information .................................................................................................................................................. 3,448

Publishing industries, except Internet ................................................................................................ 972

Motion picture and sound recording industries ................................................................................. 384

Broadcasting, except Internet ............................................................................................................ 336

Internet publishing and broadcasting ................................................................................................. 35

Telecommunications ........................................................................................................................... 1,221

ISPs, search portals, and data processing ....................................................................................... 454

Other information services ................................................................................................................. 47

Financial activities ...................................................................................................................................... 7,793

Finance and insurance........................................................................................................................... 5,794

Monetary authorities - central bank ................................................................................................... 23

Credit intermediation and related activities ........................................................................................ 2,657

Depository credit intermediation ..................................................................................................... 1,727

Commercial banking .................................................................................................................... 1,276

Securities, commodity contracts, investments ................................................................................. 799

Insurance carriers and related activities ........................................................................................... 2,229

Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles ........................................................................................ 87

Real estate and rental and leasing ........................................................................................................ 1,999

Real estate .......................................................................................................................................... 1,331

Rental and leasing services ............................................................................................................... 640

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets .......................................................................................... 27

Professional and business services ......................................................................................................... 15,845

Professional and technical services ...................................................................................................... 6,755

Legal services ................................................................................................................................. 1,101

Accounting and bookkeeping services .......................................................................................... 955

Architectural and engineering services .......................................................................................... 1,233

Computer systems design and related services ........................................................................... 1,167

Management and technical consulting services ............................................................................ 723

Management of companies and enterprises ......................................................................................... 1,708

Administrative and waste services ........................................................................................................ 7,381

Administrative and support services ................................................................................................. 7,068

Employment services ..................................................................................................................... 3,125

Temporary help services ............................................................................................................ 2,096

Business support services ............................................................................................................. 775

Services to buildings and dwellings ................................................................................................ 1,503

Waste management and remediation services ................................................................................. 314

Education and health services .................................................................................................................. 16,197

Educational services .............................................................................................................................. 2,758

Health care and social assistance ........................................................................................................ 13,439

Ambulatory health care services ....................................................................................................... 4,579

Offices of physicians ...................................................................................................................... 1,956

Outpatient care centers .................................................................................................................. 409

Home health care services ............................................................................................................ 663

Hospitals ............................................................................................................................................. 4,121

Nursing and residential care facilities ................................................................................................ 2,727

Nursing care facilities ..................................................................................................................... 1,567

Social assistance................................................................................................................................ 2,012

Child day care services .................................................................................................................. 748

Table 2. Nonfarm employment benchmarks by industry sector and selected industry detail, March 2002—Continued

(In thousands)

Industry Benchmark
10

Table 2. Nonfarm employment benchmarks by industry sector and selected industry detail, March 2002—Continued

(In thousands)

Industry Benchmark

Leisure and hospitality ............................................................................................................................... 11,622

Arts, entertainment, and recreation ....................................................................................................... 1,652

Performing arts and spectator sports ................................................................................................ 352

Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks ...................................................................................... 109

Amusements, gambling, and recreation ............................................................................................ 1,191

Accommodations and food services ..................................................................................................... 9,970

Accommodations ................................................................................................................................ 1,717

Food services and drinking places .................................................................................................... 8,254

Other services ........................................................................................................................................... 5,347

Repair and maintenance .................................................................................................................... 1,245

Personal and laundry services ........................................................................................................... 1,247

Membership associations and organizations .................................................................................... 2,855

Government ............................................................................................................................................... 21,836

Federal government ............................................................................................................................... 2,738

Federal government, except U.S. Postal Service.............................................................................. 1,887

U.S. Postal Service ............................................................................................................................. 851

State government ................................................................................................................................... 5,147

State government education .............................................................................................................. 2,364

State government, excluding education ............................................................................................. 2,784

Local government ................................................................................................................................... 13,951

Local government education .............................................................................................................. 7,987

Local government, excluding education ............................................................................................ 5,964

Table 3. Revisions in nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, January 2002-April 2003

2002:

January ............................................................... 130,871 130,578 -19 -83 -64

February ............................................................. 130,706 130,510 -165 -68 97

March .................................................................. 130,701 130,481 -5 -29 -24

April ..................................................................... 130,680 130,415 -21 -66 -45

May ..................................................................... 130,702 130,411 22 -4 -26

June .................................................................... 130,736 130,383 34 -28 -62

July ...................................................................... 130,790 130,204 54 -179 -233

August ................................................................. 130,913 130,224 123 20 -103

September ........................................................... 130,829 130,289 -84 65 149

October ............................................................... 130,898 130,408 69 119 50

November ........................................................... 130,817 130,409 -81 1 82

December ........................................................... 130,670 130,198 -147 -211 -64

2003:

January ............................................................... 130,873 130,356 203 158 -45

February ............................................................. 130,520 130,235 -353 -121 232

March .................................................................. 130,396 130,084 -124 -151 -27

Aprilp................................................................... 130,348 130,084 -48 0 48

As

previously

published

 Difference As

revised

As

previously

published

As

revised

Levels Over-the-month changes

Year and month

(In thousands)

p=preliminary.
11

of employment for the particular series to all employees

prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the

revised all-employee figures. These figures are calculated

at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the

summary estimates.

Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are

not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports

supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell

level. With the completion of the redesign and the NAICS

conversion, the levels were recomputed from the NAICS

probability sample averages for March 2001 to 2002. The

sample-based over-the-month changes were then applied to

this new level to bring it forward.

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings

series are derived as weighted averages. The production or

nonsupervisory worker employment estimates for the basic

cells are used as weights for the hours and earnings estimates

for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of the allemployee estimates to new benchmarks may alter the

weights, which, in turn, may change the estimates for hours

and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers at

higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect

on hours and earnings estimates for major groupings. To

influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader

group, employment revisions have to be relatively large

and must affect industries that have hours or earnings

averages that are substantially different from those of other

industries in their group. Table 4 gives information on the

levels of specific hours and earnings series resulting from

the March 2002 benchmark and the NAICS/sample redesign

introduction. At the total private level, average weekly hours

decreased by 0.3 hour and average hourly earnings increased

by 14 cents from the previously published levels. These

changes are primarily the result of computing new sample

average levels from the probability sample.

Methods

Benchmark adjustment procedure. Establishment survey

benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population

derived primarily from the administrative file of employees

covered by unemployment insurance (UI). The time required

to complete the revision process—from the full collection

of the UI population data to publication of the revised

industry estimates—is about 15 months. The benchmark

adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based

employment estimates with UI-based population counts for

March. The benchmark therefore determines the final

employment levels, while sample movements capture

month-to-month trends.

Benchmarks are established for each basic estimating

cell and are aggregated to develop published levels. On a

not seasonally adjusted basis, the sample-based estimates

for the year preceding and the year following the benchmark

also are then subject to revision. Employment estimates for

the months between the most recent March benchmark and

the previous year’s benchmark are adjusted using a “wedgeback” procedure. In this process, the difference between

the benchmark level and the previously published March

estimate for each estimating cell is computed. This

difference, or error, is distributed linearly across the 11

months of estimates subsequent to the previous benchmark;

eleven-twelfths of the March difference is added to February

estimates, ten-twelfths to January estimates, and so on,

ending with the previous April estimates, which receive

one-twelfth of the March difference. The wedge procedure

Text table A. Net birth/death estimates for private nonfarm industries, post-benchmark 2002

(In thousands)

Natural

Con- ManuTrade,Infor- Financial

Profes- Educa- Leisure

Other

Total

restruction facturingtransmation activitiessional tion and and

services

monthly

Year and month sources portation, and health hos- amount

and and business services pitality conmining utilities services tributed

2002:

April ............................... -1 22 -2 -31 0 0 20 6 29 1 44

May ............................... 1 37 6 21 4 6 23 5 67 6 176

June .............................. 1 29 5 20 2 5 17 -6 78 5 156

July ................................ 0 -6 -22 -24 -1 -5 -16 -13 37 -11 -61

August........................... 0 15 6 21 4 6 22 10 18 4 106

September .................... 0 11 3 18 1 3 8 13 -36 2 23

October ......................... 1 9 -3 30 5 11 19 29 -34 1 68

November ..................... 0 -7 3 24 4 5 7 8 -20 1 25

December ..................... -1 -9 3 23 2 12 6 6 8 3 53

2003:

January ......................... -4 -77 -29 -95 -3 -25 -107 -7 -32 -12 -391

February ....................... 0 11 6 6 6 10 33 14 28 5 119

March............................ 0 29 8 25 2 7 31 6 37 6 151

Cumulative total ............ -3 64 -16 38 26 35 63 71 180 11 469
12

Table 4. Hours and earnings estimates, selected industries, March 2002

Industry Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings

Total private ........................................................................... 33.6 $14.81

Goods-producing ................................................................................. 39.7 16.10

Natural resources and mining .......................................................... 43.0 17.19

Construction ..................................................................................... 37.8 18.26

Manufacturing ................................................................................... 40.4 15.14

Durable goods .............................................................................. 40.8 15.86

Wood products .......................................................................... 39.6 12.21

Nonmetallic mineral products ................................................... 41.3 15.20

Primary metals .......................................................................... 42.4 17.37

Fabricated metal products ........................................................ 40.6 14.55

Machinery .................................................................................. 40.6 15.85

Computer and electronic products ........................................... 39.8 16.08

Electrical equipment and appliances ........................................ 39.9 13.99

Transportation equipment ......................................................... 42.8 20.38

Furniture and related products ................................................. 39.5 12.43

Miscellaneous manufacturing ................................................... 38.6 12.77

Nondurable goods ........................................................................ 40.0 13.99

Food manufacturing .................................................................. 39.2 12.36

Beverages and tobacco products ............................................ 39.2 17.69

Textile mills ................................................................................ 41.4 11.67

Textile product mills .................................................................. 39.6 10.81

Apparel ...................................................................................... 36.7 9.04

Leather and allied products ...................................................... 37.1 10.83

Paper and paper products ........................................................ 41.7 16.58

Printing and related support activities ...................................... 38.5 14.78

Petroleum and coal products .................................................... 42.5 23.04

Chemicals .................................................................................. 41.9 17.82

Plastics and rubber products ................................................... 40.6 13.42

Private service-providing ..................................................................... 32.2 14.45

Trade, transportation, and utilities .................................................... 33.3 13.97

Wholesale trade ............................................................................ 37.7 16.83

Retail trade .................................................................................... 30.5 11.64

Transportation and warehousing .................................................. 36.5 15.62

Utilities ........................................................................................... 40.4 23.85

Information ........................................................................................ 36.3 19.90

Financial activities ............................................................................ 35.3 15.86

Professional and business services ............................................... 34.0 16.66

Education and health services ......................................................... 32.2 15.02

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................................... 25.5 8.50

Other services ................................................................................. 31.9 13.60
13

assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a

steady rate since the last benchmark. Applying previously

derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised

March level yields revised estimates for the months

following the March benchmark. New net birth/death model

levels also are calculated and applied during postbenchmark estimation and new sample is introduced from

the annual update.

Benchmark source material. The principal source of

benchmark data for private industries is the ES-202 report.

This report contains employment data provided to State

employment security agencies by employers covered by

State UI laws. BLS uses several other sources to establish

benchmarks for the remaining industries partially covered

or exempt from mandatory UI coverage, accounting for 3

percent of the nonfarm employment total.

Data on employees covered under Social Security laws,

published by the U.S. Census Bureau in County Business

Patterns, are used to augment UI data for nonoffice insurance sales workers, child day care workers, religious

organizations, and private schools and hospitals. Benchmarks for State and local government hospitals and

educational institutions are based on the Annual Census of

Governments conducted by the Census Bureau. Benchmark

data from these sources are available only on a 1- or 2-year

lagged basis. Extrapolation to a current level is accomplished by assuming and applying the employment

trends from the UI-covered part of the population in these

industries to the noncovered part. Universe data for interstate

railroads are obtained from the Railroad Retirement Board.

Business birth and death estimation. Regular updating of

the CES sample frame, with information from the UI universe

files helps to keep the CES survey current with respect to

employment from business births and business deaths. The

timeliest UI universe files available, however, always will

be a minimum of 9 months out of date. The CES survey

thus can not rely on regular frame maintenance alone to

provide estimates for business birth and death employment

contributions. BLS has researched both sample-based and

model-based approaches to measuring birth units that have

not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research

demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in

the very short CES production timeframes. Therefore BLS

is utilizing a model-based approach for this component.

Earlier research indicated that, while both the business

birth and death portions of total employment are generally

significant, the net contribution is relatively small and

stable. To account for this net birth/death portion of total

employment, BLS is utilizing an estimation procedure with

two components. The first component uses business deaths

to impute employment for business births. This is

incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate

procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out

of business, but imputing to them the same trend as the

other firms in the sample. The second component is an ARIMA

(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series

model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death

employment not accounted for by the imputations. The

historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA model

was derived from the UI universe micro-level database, and

reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over the

past 5 years. The ARIMA model component is reviewed on a

quarterly basis. The net birth/death model component figures

are unique to each month and include negative adjustments

in some months. Furthermore, these figures may exhibit a

seasonal pattern observed in the historical UI universe data

series.

The most significant potential drawback to this or any

model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes

a predictable continuation of historical patterns and

relationships and therefore is likely to have some difficulty

producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or

during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS

will continue researching alternative model-based

techniques for the net birth/death component; it is likely to

remain as the most problematic part of the estimation process.

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database on the Internet, contains

all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised

as a result of this benchmark, both unadjusted and seasonally

adjusted data. The data can be accessed at http://

www.bls.gov/ces/, the Current Employment Statistics

homepage. The series code under NAICS for CES to be used

in the LABSTAT database queries is slightly different. The

prefix for the NAICS series will be “CE” and the industry

code will expand by two digits to accommodate the longer

NAICS code. The old SIC database with the prefix "EE" will

be available indefinitely with data ending with April 2003

and will not be updated. Employment, hours, and earnings

estimates are published monthly in Employment and

Earnings.

Seasonal adjustment procedure

BLS uses X-12 ARIMA software developed by the U.S.

Census Bureau to seasonally adjust national employment,

hours, and earnings series derived from the CES program.

Individual series are seasonally adjusted using either a

multiplicative or an additive model. For employment,

seasonal adjustment factors are directly applied to the

component levels. Individual 3-digit NAICS levels are

seasonally adjusted, and higher-level aggregates are formed

by the summation of these components. Seasonally adjusted

totals for hours and earnings are obtained by taking weighted

averages of the seasonally adjusted data for the component

series.

Beginning in June 2003 with the May first preliminary

estimates, BLS will compute seasonal factors concurrently

with the monthly estimate production. Previously, the factors

were forecasted twice a year. Concurrent seasonal adjustment
14

is expected to provide a more accurate seasonal adjustment,

and smaller revisions from the first preliminary estimates to

the final benchmarked estimates, than the semiannual

updates. As a result of the adoption of concurrent seasonal

adjustment, the CES program has discontinued the

publication of projected seasonal factors.

Special model adjustments

Variable survey intervals. Beginning with the release of

the 1995 benchmark, BLS refined the seasonal adjustment

procedures to control for survey interval variations,

sometimes referred to as the 4- versus 5-week effect.

Although the CES survey is referenced to a consistent

concept—the pay period including the 12th of each

month—inconsistencies arise because there are sometimes

4 and sometimes 5 weeks between the week including the

12th in a given pair of months. In highly seasonal industries,

these variations can be an important determinant of the

magnitude of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at

the time the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal

adjustment.

Standard seasonal adjustment methodology relies heavily

on the experience of the most recent 3 years to determine

the expected seasonal change in employment for each month

of the current year. Prior to the implementation of the

adjustment, the procedure did not distinguish between 4-

and 5-week survey intervals and the accuracy of the seasonal

expectation depended in large measure on how well the

current year’s survey interval corresponded with those from

the previous 3 years. All else being the same, the greatest

potential for distortion occurred when the current month

being estimated had a 5-week interval but the 3 years

preceding it were all 4-week intervals, or, conversely, when

the current month had a 4-week interval but the 3 years

preceding it were all 5-week intervals.

BLS has adopted REGARIMA (regression with autocorrelated errors) modeling to identify the estimated size

and significance of the calendar effect for each published

series. REGARIMA combines standard regression analysis,

which measures correlation among two or more variables,

with ARIMA modeling, which describes and predicts the

behavior of a data series based on its own past history. For

many economic time series, including nonfarm payroll

employment, observations are autocorrelated over time.

That is, each month’s value is significantly dependent on

the observations that precede it; these series, thus, usually

can be successfully fit using ARIMA models. If

autocorrelated time series are modeled through regression

analysis alone, the measured relationships among other

variables of interest may be distorted due to the influence of

the autocorrelation. Thus, the REGARIMA technique is

appropriate to measuring relationships among variables of

interest in series that exhibit autocorrelation, such as

nonfarm payroll employment.

In this application, the correlations of interest are those

between employment levels in individual calendar months

and the lengths of the survey intervals for those months.

The REGARIMA models evaluate the variation in

employment levels attributable to 11 separate survey interval

variables, one specified for each month, except March.

March is excluded because there is almost always 4 weeks

between the February and March surveys. Models for

individual basic series were fitted with the most recent 10

years of data available, the standard time span used for CES

seasonal adjustment.

The REGARIMA procedure yielded regression

coefficients for each of the 11 months specified in the model.

These coefficients provide estimates of the strength of the

relationship between employment levels and the number of

weeks between surveys for the 11 modeled months. The

X-12 ARIMA software also produces diagnostic statistics

that permit the assessment of the statistical significance of

the regression coefficients, and all series are reviewed for

model adequacy.

Because the 11 coefficients derived from the REGARIMA

models provide an estimate of the magnitude of variation

in employment levels associated with the length of the

survey interval, these coefficients were used to adjust the

CES data to remove the calendar effect. These “filtered”

series then were seasonally adjusted using the standard

X-12 ARIMA software previously used.

For a few series, REGARIMA models did not fit well;

these series were seasonally adjusted with the X-12 software

but without the interval-effect adjustment. For all

employees, the series are transportation equipment, transit

and ground passenger transportation, social assistance, and

membership associations and organizations. The series for

women workers, production and nonsupervisory workers,

average weekly hours, average weekly overtime hours, and

average hourly earnings also are adjusted with X-12 ARIMA

including interval-effect modeling. As with the allemployee data, there were a few series which could not

successfully be fitted to ARIMA/REGARIMA models and

these do not include the interval-effect adjustment. These

series are transportation equipment for women workers;

wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and

warehousing, information, financial activities, professional

and business services, education and health services, leisure

and hospitality, and other services for average weekly hours;

and wholesale trade, financial activities, professional and

business services, and other services for average hourly

earnings. All production or nonsupervisory worker and

average overtime hours series were successfully fitted to

the models and include the interval-effect adjustment.

Construction series. BLS also continues its special

treatment in seasonally adjusting the construction industry

series, which began with the 1996 benchmark revision. In

the application of the interval-effect modeling process to

the construction series, there initially was difficulty in

accurately identifying and measuring the effect because of

the strong influence of variable weather patterns on
15

employment movements in the industry. Further research

allowed BLS to incorporate interval-effect modeling for the

construction industry by disaggregating the construction

series into its finer industry and geographic estimating cells

and tightening outlier designation parameters. This allowed

a more precise identification of weather-related outliers that

had masked the interval effect and clouded the seasonal

adjustment patterns in general. With these outliers removed,

interval-effect modeling became feasible. The result is a

seasonally adjusted series for construction that is improved

because it is controlled for two potential distortions, unusual

weather events and the 4- versus 5-week effect.

Floating holidays. BLS is continuing the practice of making

special adjustments for average weekly hours and average

weekly overtime series to account for the presence or absence

of religious holidays in the April survey reference period

and the occurrence of Labor Day in the September reference

period back to 1939, or when the series begins.

Local government series. A special adjustment also is made

in November each year for poll workers in the local

government, excluding education series; this adjustment is

incorporated as part of the X-12 modeling process from 1988

forward. An X-11 ARIMA-based procedure is used for earlier

years.

Refinements in hours and earnings seasonal adjustment.

With the release of the 1997 benchmark, BLS implemented

refinements to the seasonal adjustment process for the hours

and earnings series to correct for distortions related to the

method of accounting for the varying length of payroll

periods across months. There is a significant correlation

between over-the-month changes in both the average weekly

hours (AWH) and the average hourly earnings (AHE) series

and the number of weekdays in a month, resulting in

noneconomic fluctuations in these two series. Both AWH

and AHE show more growth in “short” months (20 or 21

weekdays) than in “long” months (22 or 23 weekdays). Much

of the previously unexplained volatility in these series is

attributable to this calendar effect. The effect is stronger for

the AWH than for the AHE series.

The calendar effect is traceable to response and processing

errors associated with converting payroll and hours

information from sample respondents with semimonthly or

monthly pay periods to a weekly equivalent. The response

error comes from sample respondents reporting a fixed

number of total hours for workers regardless of the length of

the reference month, while the CES conversion process

assumes that the hours reporting will be variable. A constant

level of hours reporting most likely occurs when employees

are salaried rather than paid by the hour, as employers are

less likely to keep actual detailed hours records for such

employees. This causes artificial peaks in the AWH series in

shorter months that are reversed in longer months.

The processing error occurs when respondents with

salaried workers report hours correctly (vary them according

to the length of the month), which dictates that different

conversion factors be applied to payroll and hours. The

CES processing system uses the hours conversion factor for

both fields, resulting in peaks in the AHE series in short

months and reversals in long months. Currently, the CES

processing system can accommodate only one conversion

factor per reporter.

REGARIMA modeling is used to identify, measure, and

remove the length-of-pay-period effect for seasonally

adjusted average weekly hours and average hourly earnings

series. The length-of-pay-period variable proves significant

for explaining AWH movements in all the service-providing

industries, except retail trade. For AHE, the length-of-payperiod variable is significant for wholesale trade; financial

activities; professional and business services; and other

services. All AWH series in the service-providing industries,

except retail trade, have been adjusted from January 1990

forward. The AHE series for wholesale trade; financial

activities; professional and business services; and other

services have been adjusted from January 1990 forward, as

well. For this reason, calculations of over-the-year change

in the establishment hours and earnings series should use

seasonally adjusted data.

The series to which the length-of-pay-period adjustment

is applied are not subject to the 4- versus 5-week adjustment,

because the modeling cannot support the number of

variables that would be required in the regression equation

to make both adjustments. Because the 4- versus 5-week

model shows only marginal significance in the serviceproviding industries, its replacement with the length-of-payperiod adjustment in those industries, with the exception of

retail trade, is a viable tradeoff. The 4- versus 5-week

adjustment is most significant in manufacturing hours and

earnings series; it will continue to be applied there and in

other divisions not affected by the length-of-pay-period

variable.

Additive and multiplicative models. Prior to this benchmark

release, all CES series were adjusted using multiplicative

seasonal adjustment models. Although the X-12 ARIMA

seasonal adjustment program provides for either an additive

or a multiplicative adjustment depending on which model

best fits the individual series, the previous CES processing

system was unable to utilize additive seasonal adjustments.

A new processing system, being introduced simultaneously

with the conversion to NAICS, is able to utilize both additive

and multiplicative adjustments. See exhibit 4 for a list

of which series are adjusted with additive seasonal

adjustment models and which series are adjusted with

multiplicative models. Exhibit 4 also designates which

series are subject to the calendar-effects modeling described

earlier.
16

Exhibit 4. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week 

Easter/ Other Labor Day

All employees

Logging ............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Oil and gas extraction ...................................................... Multiplicative X

Mining, except oil and gas ............................................... Multiplicative X

Coal mining ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Support activities for mining ............................................. Multiplicative X

Construction of buildings ................................................. - X Indirect 1

Heavy and civil engineering construction ....................... Additive X

Specialty trade contractors ............................................. - X Indirect 1

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Machinery ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Computer and electronic products .................................. Multiplicative X

Computer and peripheral equipment ............................... Additive X

Communications equipment ............................................ Additive X

Semiconductors and electronic components .................. Multiplicative X

Electronic instruments ..................................................... Multiplicative X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Multiplicative X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Multiplicative X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Multiplicative X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X

Apparel ............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Multiplicative X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Additive X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade, durable goods ...................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade, nondurable goods ................................ Multiplicative X

Electronic markets and agents and brokers ................... Multiplicative X

Motor vehicle and parts dealers ...................................... Multiplicative X

Automobile dealers ........................................................... Additive X

Furniture and home furnishings stores ........................... Multiplicative X

Electronics and appliance stores .................................... Multiplicative X

Building material and garden supply stores .................... Multiplicative X

Food and beverage stores .............................................. Multiplicative X

Health and personal care stores ..................................... Multiplicative X

Gasoline stations ............................................................. Multiplicative X

Clothing and clothing accessories stores ....................... Multiplicative X

Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores ........... Multiplicative X

General merchandise stores ........................................... Multiplicative X

Department stores ........................................................... Multiplicative X

Miscellaneous store retailers ........................................... Additive X

Nonstore retailers ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Air transportation .............................................................. Multiplicative X

Rail transportation ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Water transportation ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Truck transportation ......................................................... Additive X

Transit and ground passenger transportation ................ Additive

Pipeline transportation ...................................................... Additive X

Scenic and sightseeing transportation ............................ Multiplicative X

Support activities for transportation ................................ Additive X

Couriers and messengers ............................................... Multiplicative X

Warehousing and storage ................................................ Multiplicative X

Mode of

adjustment 10/11

day

See footnotes at end of exhibit.
17

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Publishing industries, except Internet ............................. Multiplicative X

Motion picture and sound recording industries ............... Multiplicative X

Broadcasting, except Internet ......................................... Multiplicative X

Internet publishing and broadcasting .............................. Multiplicative X

Telecommunications ........................................................ Multiplicative X

ISPs, search portals, and data processing ..................... Multiplicative X

Other information services .............................................. Additive X

Monetary authorities – central bank ................................ Additive X

Credit intermediation and related activities ..................... Multiplicative X

Depository credit intermediation ...................................... Multiplicative X

Commercial banking ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Securities, commodity contracts, investments ............... Multiplicative X

Insurance carriers and related activities ......................... Multiplicative X

Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles ..................... Multiplicative X

Real estate ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Rental and leasing services ............................................ Multiplicative X

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets ....................... Multiplicative X

Professional and technical services ............................... Multiplicative X

Legal services .................................................................. Multiplicative X

Accounting and bookkeeping services ........................... Multiplicative X

Architectural and engineering services ........................... Multiplicative X

Computer systems design and related services ............ Multiplicative X

Management and technical consulting services ............. Multiplicative X

Management of companies and enterprises ................... Multiplicative X

Administrative and support services ............................... Multiplicative X

Employment services ...................................................... Multiplicative X

Temporary help services ................................................. Multiplicative X

Business support services .............................................. Multiplicative X

Services to buildings and dwellings ................................. Multiplicative X

Waste management and remediation services ............... Multiplicative X

Educational services ........................................................ Additive X

Ambulatory health care services ..................................... Additive X

Offices of physicians ....................................................... Additive X

Outpatient care centers ................................................... Additive X

Home health care services ............................................. Additive X

Hospitals ........................................................................... Additive X

Nursing and residential care facilities .............................. Additive X

Nursing care facilities ....................................................... Additive X

Social assistance ............................................................. Multiplicative

Child day care services ................................................... Multiplicative X

Performing arts and spectator sports ............................. Multiplicative X

Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks ................... Multiplicative X

Amusements, gambling, and recreation .......................... Multiplicative X

Accommodations .............................................................. Multiplicative X

Food services and drinking places ................................. Additive X

Repair and maintenance .................................................. Additive X

Personal and laundry services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Membership associations and organizations .................. Additive

Federal Government, except U.S. Postal Service .......... Multiplicative X

U.S. Postal Service........................................................... Multiplicative X

State government education ............................................ Additive X

State government, excluding education .......................... Multiplicative X

Local government education ........................................... Additive X

Local government, excluding education .......................... Additive X Election 2

Exhibit 4. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week Easter/ Other Labor Day

All employees

See footnotes at end of exhibit.

Mode of

adjustment 10/11

day
18

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Additive X

Mining ............................................................................... Additive X

Construction ..................................................................... Multiplicative X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Multiplicative X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Multiplicative X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Finance and insurance .................................................... Multiplicative X

Real estate and rental and leasing .................................. Additive X

Professional and technical services ............................... Multiplicative X

Management of companies and enterprises ................... Multiplicative X

Administrative and waste services ................................. Multiplicative X

Educational services ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Health care and social assistance .................................. Multiplicative X

Arts, entertainment, and recreation ................................. Multiplicative X

Accommodations and food services ............................... Multiplicative X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Federal Government ........................................................ Additive X

State government ............................................................. Multiplicative X

Local government ............................................................ Multiplicative X Election 2

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Multiplicative X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Machinery ......................................................................... Additive X

Computer and electronic products .................................. Multiplicative X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative X

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Multiplicative X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Multiplicative X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Additive X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X

Apparel ............................................................................. Additive X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Multiplicative X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Additive X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Additive X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Additive X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Additive X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Additive X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Multiplicative X

Other services ................................................................. Additive X

Exhibit 4. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

Mode of

4/5 week 10/11 Easter/ Other adjustment

day Labor Day

Women workers

Production or nonsupervisory workers 3

See footnotes at end of exhibit.
19

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Multiplicative X X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X X

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X X

Machinery ......................................................................... Multiplicative X X

Computer and electronic products .................................. Multiplicative X X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative X X

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Additive X X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Additive X X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Multiplicative X X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X X

Apparel ............................................................................. Additive X X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Additive X X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Multiplicative X X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Multiplicative X X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Multiplicative X X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Additive X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Additive X X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Additive X X

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Additive X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Additive X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Additive X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Additive X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Exhibit 4. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week Easter/ Other Labor Day

Average weekly hours 3

Average overtime hours 4

Average hourly earnings 3

1 Seasonal adjustment occurs at the finest industry detail available.

2

 Special adjustment for the presence/absence of poll workers in

local government.

3 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and

mining and manufacturing; construction workers in construction;

and nonsupervisory workers in private service-providing

industries.

4

 Data relate to production workers in manufacturing.

10/11

day

Mode of

adjustment