omparisons with Other Data Sources

s part of the evaluation of the Consumer Expenditure Survey results, BLS compares its

estimates of aggregate consumer expenditures with independent sources of data. Consumer

Expenditure Survey data in these comparisons are integrated data from both the Interview
and Diary surveys, unless otherwise noted. To facilitate comparison, some adjustments are made to
the Consumer Expenditure Survey data and the independent sources, to account for differences in
concept and coverage. The degree of comparability varies by component, as noted in the tables. Data
are not shown when differences in concept or content are so great that comparison would be meaning-
less. Because most agencies have revised their estimates since publication of data in the last Con-
sumer Expenditure Survey bulletin, readers should avoid comparing these ratios with those in earlier
BLS publications. The Consumer Expenditure Survey data and several of the independent source
data are subject to both sampling and non-sampling error. Comparisons allow monitoring of the

estimates for consistency over time.

Personal Consumption Expenditures. The principal source
of independent estimates used in comparisons with the
Consumer Expenditure Survey is the Personal Consump-
tion Expenditures (PCE) component of the National In-
come and Product Accounts (NIPA), published by the Bu-
reau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department
of Commerce. PCE estimates of aggregate expenditures
represent the market value of goods and services purchased
by all persons. PCE estimates are derived by complex
methods which trace the flow of goods and services through
the economy. Total expenditures of persons comprise ex-
penditures of the civilian population of the United States,
including persons living abroad, persons in the military,
and nonprofit institutions. (Expenditures of nonprofit in-
stitutions are not distributed among individual goods.
Instead, they are included in specific service categories,
primarily medical care, education and research, and reli-
gious and welfare activities—categories which are not
compared with Consumer Expenditure Survey data.) PCE
estimates are not directly subject to the quantifiable sam-
pling errors found in household surveys; they are subject
to sampling and non-sampling errors in the source data
from which they are derived. PCE estimates are also sub-
ject to difficulties in applying complex procedures for al-
locating these data among final demand sectors.

BEA conducts comprehensive revisions of the NIPA at
approximately 5-year intervals, primarily to update the
series with new results from the Census Bureau’s quin-
quennial censuses and other sources used in the accounts.

This kind of revision is referred to as benchmarking. Such
revisions may also include changes to selected methods of
estimation. PCE estimates based on different benchmarks
sometimes differ by large amounts; and, as a result, revi-
sions to PCE can have a substantial effect on comparisons
with the Consumer Expenditure Survey. In addition, BEA
conducts annual revisions to PCE that affect 3 years of
data and may also include changes in estimation methods.
Therefore, due to benchmarking and annual revisions to
PCE, the Consumer Expenditure Survey-to-PCE ratios in
this report should not be compared with previously pub-
lished ratios.

Text table 10 shows Consumer Expenditure Survey es-
timates of aggregate expenditures for selected expendi-
ture categories for 1992 through 1995, adjusted for com-
parability with PCE and ratios to PCE. The ratios indicate
that the Consumer Expenditure Survey estimates for the
major categories of consumption are lower than PCE. For
several items, the relationship between these two series
over time has been generally about the same. These items
include the expenditure categories of food; alcoholic bev-
erages; rent, utilities, fuels, and public services; apparel;
and transportation.

Detailed food comparisons. Consumer expenditure esti-
mates for food at home are compared with PCE and two
published sources of trade association data, Supermarket
Business and Progressive Grocer magazines. Supermarket
Business, Inc. annually conducts independent mail and

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 1994-95 19


Comparison of aggregate expenditures for selected expenditure categories: Consumer Expenditure (CE)
Survey and Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), 1992-95

‘Consumer Expenditure Survey j

Expenditure category | (in bitions) Ratio of CE to POE
yaa | 1904 | 1905 | 1982 | 1993 | 1994 | 1995
sasi | $444 | $454 o72 | o71 | o70 | 068
273 | 279 | 287 74 | 74 73 73
‘Away from home! 436) 158 165 467 ‘8 | 85 ‘64 ‘62
Alcoholic beverage 30 27 28 28 40} 34 36 ‘34
Rent, utilities, and public services* 328 | 936 358 | | 357 98 | 97 99 95
Rented dwellings, total . 492 | 191 208 | 204 | 104 | 101 | 103 97
Ubtities, fuels, and public services 196 | 146 153 153 9) 9 94 92
Telephone 2 66 nm 73 ‘29 29 ea | 85
Household operations : 24 | 24 26 25 34 80 a | 77
Household fumishings and equipment . sor | 127 140 149 ‘66 6 | 65 | 66
Apparel and services... 172 | 168 168 | 175 62 57 | 55 58
Transportation 4o0 | 420 | 477 | 453 72 n 7 68
Vehicle purchases 194 | 208 | 246 | 225 vos | 105 | 114 | 1.04
Gasoline and motor oil 97 98 401 104 93 92 94 92
Other vehicle expenses* 80 84 95 90 ‘36 35 36 32
Maintenance and repairs, total . 62 63 68 60 a 30 29 24
Vehicle rental and other charges 18 21 26 30 ‘24 83 91 94
Public transportation 28 30 36 34 ‘38 60 69 61
139 | 153 | 183 159 58 58 53 51
: 38 42 45 45 53 52 51 47
Televisions, radios, sound eq 50 61 57 58 ‘65 71 6 57
Pets, toys and playground equipment 27 29 29 33 ‘62 63 59 63
Other entertainment supplies, equipment . 46 42 a4 44 ‘50 42 | 37 | 37
Personal care products and services 39 we | 4 a 66 63 64 63
Reading ... | 21 22 | 22 22 53 | 52 ‘50 46
Tobacco products and smoking supplies... a7 | a7 26 28 ‘5 | 57 ‘35 59
Miscellaneous*. au 32 | 37 36 27 | 23 | 2 | 2

+ Excludes school lunches and meals as pay.

2ncludes rent for tenant-occupied dwelling units and lodging away from
home and at school. Rent in the CE is contract rent, which includes utilities
forsome renters. The CE covers direct costs of utiies and fuels by homeowners
and renters. In PCE, data are for space rent, which excludes charges for
utilities. PCE data cover total expenditures for utilities and fuels, even if paid
by landiords.

Excludes amounts for baby-sitting, daycare centers and care of invalids
or the elderty.

“PCE estimates are derived using estimates of dealer margin (a concept
which cannot be matched to CE) and wholesale value of net transactions
between persons and government, foreigners, and non-dealer businesses.
CE data on vehicle purchases and trade-ins were combined to approximate
total value of new vehicle purchases. CE data on used vehicle purchases,
trade-ins, sales and losses were combined to approximate the value of net

telephone surveys of food manufacturers, packers, whole-
salers, and retailers. Focusing on measuring total industry
sales, this study reports estimates of the total value of re-
tail food sales, covering all types of food stores. Results
from the surveys are reported in Supermarket Business (FM
Business Publications, Inc., New York), usually in Septem-
ber of each year. Progressive Grocer, Inc. annually con-
ducts an independent study of supermarket sales that fo-
cuses on the supermarket performance in relation to other
kinds of retail outlets, comparing changes in sales by prod-
uct and by category. Supermarkets, that is, grocery stores
with annual food sales of $2 million or more, account for
about 75 percent of grocery store food sales. Detailed na-
tional estimates of the value of food sales in supermarkets,
representing 30,750 supermarkets, are reported in Progres-

20 Consumer Expenditure Survey, 1994-95

transactions of used vehicles.

includes vehicle rentals, maintenance and repairs, and other vehicle
charges. Estimates exclude aircraft rentals, vehicle licenses, vehicle '.
spection, and vehicle registration.

*CE estimates exclude expenditures for other properties.

NOTE: Sums may not equal totals, due to rounding. Expenditure esti-
mates for home ownership, insurance, capital improvements, health care,
finance charges, education, and cash contributions are excluded trom com-
parisons.

SOURCE: PCE data used in comparisons are from detailed tabulations of
the National Income and Product Accounts of the U.S. Department of Com-
merce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, as of August 1996.

sive Grocer (Richard K. Hofler Publisher, Stamford, CT) in
July of each year.

Text table 11 shows detailed annual estimates of food-
at-home expenditures from the Consumer Expenditure
Diary survey compared to PCE and the trade association
data. In general, the relationship among consumer expen-
diture estimates and estimates from the other three sources
is as expected and is consistent over the period shown.
Differences between the Consumer Expenditure Diary
survey estimates and the three sources of food-at-home
data are most likely due to differences in the methods of
data collection and estimation. These variations reflect
fundamental differences in the purposes for which the data
are collected. Relatively low ratios may reflect
underreporting in the Consumer Expenditure Survey.


Text table 1

Comparison of aggregate expenditures for food: Consumer Expenditure (CE) Diary Survey and Personal
Consumption Expenditures (PCE), and trade association data, 1994-95

] ] ]

— | | Ratoof Ce
iary survey | Ratio of CE to to
Food category (In billions) Y | Ratio of CE to PCE |Supermarket Business) Progressive
Grocer

cos _| 1995 t994 | 1995 | 1994 1995 1994 | 1995

Total. sis0 a | wees 72 | 72 109 | 140 | tar | 1.19
Cereals and cereal products 6.0 | 17.0 73) 74 14 115) 1.19 1.24
Bakery products ... 22 | 2a 72 | 72 199 | 1.01 1141.16
Beet, pork, other meat, poultry. 625 | 642 7 | 77 wat) 114 1.14 1.14
Fish and seafood 121 | 127 1.16 1.24 137 | 149 | 322 3.52
Eggs 34 34 118 | 4.17 220 | 212 | 157 1.51
Fresh milk and cream 130 | 126 ‘97 88 1.68 | 1.66 1:40 1.38
Other dairy products 165 | 178 88 90 128 | 1.35 Mt 1.16
Fresh fruits and vegetables 273 | 289 92 94 74 | 74 | 90 92
Processed fruits and vegetables . 165 | 145 62 52 woo | 12 | 142 1.42
‘Sugar and other sweets .. 107 | 115 37 | 39 139 | 148 | 2.10 2.19
Fats and oils 84 85 79 81 423 | 124 | 1.54 1.60
Nonalcoholic beverage: 23.7 | 247 55 | 58 1.00 37 | 143 1.10
Miscellaneous prepared food 369 | 387 87 | 68 4.43 | 1.15 1.01 4.03

SOURCE: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Con-
sumer Expenditure Survey, annual. PCE estimates are shown in U.S, Depart-
ment of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, “National Income and
Product Accounts” Survey of Current Business, August 1996. Supermarket

Comparisons show that Diary survey estimates of food-
at-home expenditures for 1994 and 1995 are usually lower
than PCE, which is based on administrative data and cov-
ers a larger population. In contrast, the Diary survey esti-
mates are generally higher than Supermarket Business es-
timates, which may reflect the difference in data collec-
tion methods. Consumer expenditure estimates are higher
than Progressive Grocer estimates. This difference is ex-
pected, since this trade source only covers supermarkets,
as noted above. Consumer Expenditure survey estimates
for fruits and vegetables, which are close to 10 percent
below Progressive Grocer estimates, may reflect
underreporting in the CE Diary survey.

National Health Expenditures. The Health Care Financ-
ing Administration (HCFA) of the U.S. Department of Health
and Human Services publishes annual data on total aggre-
gate health care expenditures of the United States, referred
to as National Health Expenditures (NHE). Total health
care expenditures include expenditures for health care by
all sources in the United States economy, including public
and private sources. The NHE data cover U.S. citizens
living abroad, military personnel, inhabitants of U.S. terri-
tories, and parts of the institutional population—a larger
population than covered by the Consumer Expenditure
Survey. In particular, the NHE is designed to cover nurs-
ing home residents, while the Consumer Expenditure Sur-
vey is not.

Estimates of out-of-pocket personal health care expen-
ditures from NHE are compared with the Consumer Ex-
penditure Survey. Out-of-pocke’ money spent for health

Business, Inc., “Consumer Expenditure Study,” Supermarket Business, FM
Business Publications, Inc., September issues, 1995, 1996. Progressive
Grocer Company, “The [year] Supermarket Sales Manual,” Progressive Gro-
cer, Maclean Hunter Media, Inc., July issues, 1995, 1996.

care include expenditures for medical care that are not
covered by insurance. Such expenses may include co-
payments and deductible amounts that are required by
health insurance plans. To derive its out-of-pocket esti-
mates, HCFA uses data from administrative and industry
sources, as well as some Consumer Expenditure Survey
data. The NHE estimates used for these comparisons re-
flect several updates in data sources since the last con-
sumer expenditure bulletin comparisons.

Text table 12 shows Consumer Expenditure Survey es-
timates of aggregate expenditures for health care (exclud-
ing health insurance and nursing home care) and ratios to
NHE estimates of out-of-pocket health care expenditures.
As reported in the Consumer Expenditure Survey, aggre-
gate medical care expenditures, excluding health insur-
ance, were $89 billion in 1995, or 58 percent of the NHE
estimate of $141 billion. Of the Consumer Expenditure
Survey total, $37 billion were spent on medical commodi-
ties and $53 billion on medical services. These amounts
were 65 percent and 54 percent of the NHE estimates, re-
spectively. Data show variations in the Consumer Expen-
diture Survey-to-NHE ratios over the 1992-95 period for
both medical commodities and medical services. Declines
in medical care commodities primarily reflect lower esti-
mates for hearing aids in the Consumer Expenditure Sur-
vey and fluctuations in medical services may reflect vola-
tility in spending on personal health care, due to changes
in health insurance plans. In addition, comparison of health
care expenditures may reflect underreporting in the Con-
sumer Expenditure Survey or undetectable administrative
error.

Consumer Expenditure Survey, 1994-95 21