5

With the release of data for January 2004, the Bureau

of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual

revision of national estimates of employment,

hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics

(CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. Each year,

the CES survey realigns its sample-based estimates to reflect

more currently available universe counts of employment—a

process known as benchmarking. Comprehensive counts of

employment, or benchmarks, are derived primarily from

employment data reported on unemployment insurance (UI)

tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with

State Employment Security Agencies. Beginning this year,

the benchmark release date has been accelerated from June

to February. This acceleration is due, in large part, to the

earlier availability of the UI data.

Summary of the benchmark revisions

The March 2003 benchmark level for total nonfarm

employment is 129,148,000; this figure is 122,000 below the

sample-based estimate for March 2003, an adjustment of -0.1

percent. Table 1 shows the total nonfarm benchmark

revisions in percentage terms for the past 10 years.

Table 2 shows the employment benchmarks for March

2003, not seasonally adjusted, by industry. The majority of

this year’s benchmark revision was in manufacturing and in

professional and business services. Employment estimates

in manufacturing were revised downward by 156,000, or 1.1

percent. Within manufacturing, durable goods contributed

the most, with a downward revision of 110,000, or 1.2 percent.

Nondurable goods employment was revised downward by

46,000, or 0.8 percent. In professional and business services,

employment estimates were revised downward by 110,000,

or 0.7 percent.

Benchmark revisions in other supersectors were generally

smaller. Government employment was revised upward by

76,000, or 0.3 percent. The revision was mainly attributable

to State government education, which was revised upward

by 77,000, or 3.2 percent. Other services employment was

revised upward by 75,000, or 1.4 percent. This was largely

due to an upward revision of 34,000, or 2.7 percent, in

personal and laundry services, and an upward revision of

22,000, or 0.8 percent, in membership associations and

organizations. Employment in leisure and hospitality was

revised upward by 53,000, or 0.5 percent. The revision was

largely driven by an upward revision of 39,000, or 0.4 percent,

in accommodations and food services. Only a minor upward

revision of 10,000 occurred in trade, transportation, and

utilities. However, within the trade, transportation, and utilities

supersector, wholesale trade employment was revised upward

by 35,000, or 0.6 percent, which was offset by a downward revision in retail trade of 72,000, or 0.5 percent. Natural resources

and mining was revised upward by 5,000, or 0.9 percent.

The information industry employment series was revised

downward by 82,000, or 2.6 percent. This was largely driven

by a downward revision of 46,000, or 4.2 percent, in

telecommunications. Construction employment was revised

downward by 53,000, or 0.8 percent. The majority of the

revision in construction was in construction of buildings,

with a downward revision of 29,000, or 1.9 percent, and in

specialty trade contractors, with a downward revision of

25,000, or 0.6 percent.

Changes to the CES published series list

The 2003 benchmark resulted in several changes to the list of

CES published series. The changes result from a review of

sample employment coverage for all estimating cells. There

are four series that are newly published effective with the

2003 benchmark release. (See exhibit 1.) Exhibits 2 through

4 show additional changes to published and unpublished

series effective with the introduction of March 2003

benchmark levels.

BLS National Establishment Estimates Revised

to Incorporate March 2003 Benchmarks

Hazel Lejarde

Hazel Lejarde is an economist in the Division of Current

Employment Statistics, Office of Employment and Unemployment

Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691-6555;

e-mail: CESInfo@bls.gov.

Industry 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Total nonfarm ............................... 0.7 0.5 (2

) 0.4 (2) 0.2 0.4 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1

Total private ........................................ .7 .5 0.1 .5 0.1 .2 .3 -.2 -.4 -.2

Government ........................................ .4 .2 -.1 -.4 -.2 .1 .6 .3 1.0 .3

Table 1. Percent differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry sector, March 1994-2003 1

1 Differences are based on comparisons of final published March estimates and benchmark levels, as originally published.

2 Less than 0.05 percent.
6

Table 2. Differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry sector and

selected industry detail, March 2003

(Numbers in thousands)

Difference

Industry Benchmark Estimate

Amount Percent

Total nonfarm ................................................. 129,148 129,270 -122 -.1

Total private ........................................................... 107,131 107,329 -198 -.2

Goods-producing ......................................................... 21,529 21,733 -204 -.9

Natural resources and mining ............................................................... 556 551 5 .9

Logging ..................................................................... 64 60 4 6.3

Mining .............................................................................................. 492 491 1 .2

Oil and gas extraction ............................................................. 120 122 -2 -1.7

Mining, except oil and gas ....................................................... 196 202 -6 -3.1

Coal mining ....................................................................... 71 72 -1 -1.4

Support activities for mining .................................................... 175 167 8 4.6

Construction ........................................................................................... 6,319 6,372 -53 -.8

Construction of buildings ......................................................... 1,511 1,540 -29 -1.9

Heavy and civil engineering construction .............................. 812 810 2 .2

Specialty trade contractors ..................................................... 3,997 4,022 -25 -.6

Manufacturing ......................................................................................... 14,654 14,810 -156 -1.1

Durable goods ................................................................................ 9,066 9,176 -110 -1.2

Wood products ........................................................................ 529 535 -6 -1.1

Nonmetallic mineral products .................................................. 486 495 -9 -1.9

Primary metals ........................................................................ 489 494 -5 -1.0

Fabricated metal products ...................................................... 1,492 1,490 2 .1

Machinery ................................................................................ 1,171 1,197 -26 -2.2

Computer and electronic products ......................................... 1,387 1,432 -45 -3.2

Computer and peripheral equipment ............................... 231 231 0 .0

Communications equipment ............................................ 160 177 -17 -10.6

Semiconductors and electronic components ................. 472 494 -22 -4.7

Electronic instruments ..................................................... 434 436 -2 -.5

Electrical equipment and appliances ...................................... 470 478 -8 -1.7

Transportation equipment ....................................................... 1,792 1,791 1 .1

Furniture and related products ............................................... 581 583 -2 -.3

Miscellaneous manufacturing ................................................. 670 682 -12 -1.8

Nondurable goods .......................................................................... 5,588 5,634 -46 -.8

Food manufacturing ................................................................ 1,493 1,492 1 .1

Beverages and tobacco products .......................................... 198 192 6 3.0

Textile mills .............................................................................. 275 282 -7 -2.5

Textile product mills ................................................................. 186 191 -5 -2.7

Apparel ..................................................................................... 327 320 7 2.1

Leather and allied products ..................................................... 47 46 1 2.1

Paper and paper products ...................................................... 522 533 -11 -2.1

Printing and related support activities .................................... 685 695 -10 -1.5

Petroleum and coal products .................................................. 114 118 -4 -3.5

Chemicals ................................................................................ 916 923 -7 -.8

Plastics and rubber products .................................................. 826 843 -17 -2.1

Service-providing ......................................................... 107,619 107,537 82 .1

Private service-providing .................................................... 85,602 85,596 6 (1

)

Trade, transportation, and utilities ......................................................... 24,994 24,984 10 (1)

Wholesale trade .............................................................................. 5,598 5,563 35 .6

Electronic markets and agents and brokers .......................... 652 618 34 5.2

Retail trade ...................................................................................... 14,648 14,720 -72 -.5

Motor vehicle and parts dealers ............................................. 1,861 1,861 0 .0

Automobile dealers .......................................................... 1,246 1,239 7 .6

Furniture and home furnishings stores .................................. 540 544 -4 -.7

Electronics and appliance stores ........................................... 511 522 -11 -2.2

Building material and garden supply stores ........................... 1,143 1,152 -9 -.8

See footnote at end of table.
7

Table 2. Differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry sector and

selected industry detail, March 2003—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Difference

Industry Benchmark Estimate

Amount Percent

Retail trade—Continued

Food and beverage stores ..................................................... 2,818 2,786 32 1.1

Health and personal care stores ............................................ 931 956 -25 -2.7

Gasoline stations ..................................................................... 871 896 -25 -2.9

Clothing and clothing accessories stores .............................. 1,261 1,246 15 1.2

Sporting goods , hobby, book, and music stores .................... 635 631 4 .6

General merchandise stores .................................................. 2,734 2,762 -28 -1.0

Department stores ........................................................... 1,575 1,658 -83 -5.3

Miscellaneous store retailers .................................................. 918 928 -10 -1.1

Nonstore retailers .................................................................... 425 437 -12 -2.8

Transportation and warehousing .................................................... 4,166 4,108 58 1.4

Air transportation ..................................................................... 545 532 13 2.4

Rail transportation ................................................................... 213 214 -1 -.5

Water transportation ............................................................... 52 49 3 5.8

Truck transportation ................................................................ 1,304 1,303 1 .1

Transit and ground passenger transportation ........................ 391 362 29 7.4

Pipeline transportation ............................................................. 41 40 1 2.4

Scenic and sightseeing transportation ................................... 22 23 -1 -4.5

Support activities for transportation ........................................ 514 520 -6 -1.2

Couriers and messengers ...................................................... 566 556 10 1.8

Warehousing and storage ....................................................... 519 510 9 1.7

Utilities ............................................................................................. 581 593 -12 -2.1

Information .............................................................................................. 3,214 3,296 -82 -2.6

Publishing industries, except Internet .................................... 935 952 -17 -1.8

Motion picture and sound recording industries ...................... 367 365 2 .5

Broadcasting, except Internet ................................................ 326 325 1 .3

Internet publishing and broadcasting ...................................... 30 34 -4 -13.3

Telecommunications ................................................................ 1,097 1,143 -46 -4.2

ISPs, search portals, and data processing ............................ 410 431 -21 -5.1

Other information services ..................................................... 48 46 2 4.2

Financial activities .................................................................................. 7,910 7,897 13 .2

Finance and insurance ................................................................... 5,895 5,888 7 .1

Monetary authorities - central bank ........................................ 23 22 1 4.3

Credit intermediation and related activities ............................. 2,758 2,747 11 .4

Depository credit intermediation ...................................... 1,741 1,758 -17 -1.0

Commercial banking ................................................. 1,276 1,297 -21 -1.6

Securities, commodity contracts, investments ...................... 761 797 -36 -4.7

Insurance carriers and related activities ................................ 2,270 2,238 32 1.4

Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles ............................ 83 84 -1 -1.2

Real estate and rental and leasing ................................................. 2,014 2,009 5 .2

Real estate .............................................................................. 1,361 1,344 17 1.2

Rental and leasing services .................................................... 627 637 -10 -1.6

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets .............................. 26 27 -1 -3.8

Professional and business services ..................................................... 15,700 15,810 -110 -.7

Professional and technical services .............................................. 6,697 6,824 -127 -1.9

Legal services ......................................................................... 1,131 1,120 11 1.0

Accounting and bookkeeping services .................................. 935 1,031 -96 -10.3

Architectural and engineering services .................................. 1,212 1,228 -16 -1.3

Computer systems design and related service ..................... 1,113 1,145 -32 -2.9

Management and technical consulting services .................... 739 731 8 1.1

Management of companies and enterprises ................................. 1,668 1,686 -18 -1.1

Administrative and waste services ................................................ 7,335 7,300 35 .5

Administrative and support services ...................................... 7,022 6,991 31 .4

Employment services ...................................................... 3,115 3,122 -7 -.2

Temporary help services ......................................... 2,069 2,044 25 1.2

Business support services .............................................. 750 751 -1 -.1

Services to buildings and dwellings ................................. 1,514 1,486 28 1.8

Waste management and remediation services ...................... 313 309 4 1.3

See footnote at end of table.
8

Table 2. Differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry sector and

selected industry detail, March 2003—Continued

(Numbers in thousands)

Difference

Industry Benchmark Estimate

Amount Percent

Education and health services .............................................................. 16,632 16,585 47 .3

Educational services ...................................................................... 2,817 2,842 -25 -.9

Health care and social assistance................................................. 13,815 13,743 72 .5

Ambulatory health care services ............................................ 4,731 4,732 -1 (1

)

Offices of physicians ....................................................... 1,987 2,034 -47 -2.4

Outpatient care centers ................................................... 423 413 10 2.4

Home health care services ............................................. 712 697 15 2.1

Hospitals .................................................................................. 4,229 4,209 20 .5

Nursing and residential care facilities ..................................... 2,772 2,771 1 (1

)

Nursing care facilities ...................................................... 1,579 1,581 -2 -.1

Social assistance .................................................................... 2,083 2,031 52 2.5

Child day care services ................................................... 771 739 32 4.2

Leisure and hospitality ........................................................................... 11,769 11,716 53 .5

Arts, entertainment, and recreation ............................................... 1,665 1,651 14 .8

Performing arts and spectator sports ..................................... 359 340 19 5.3

Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks .......................... 109 105 4 3.7

Amusements, gambling, and recreation ................................. 1,197 1,206 -9 -.8

Accommodations and food services ............................................. 10,104 10,065 39 .4

Accommodations ..................................................................... 1,725 1,728 -3 -.2

Food services and drinking places ........................................ 8,379 8,338 41 .5

Other services ....................................................................................... 5,383 5,308 75 1.4

Repair and maintenance ......................................................... 1,233 1,214 19 1.5

Personal and laundry services ............................................... 1,254 1,220 34 2.7

Membership associations and organizations ......................... 2,896 2,874 22 .8

Government ........................................................................................... 22,017 21,941 76 .3

Federal Government ...................................................................... 2,774 2,778 -4 -.1

Federal Government, except U.S. Postal Service ................. 1,961 1,957 4 .2

U.S. Postal Service .................................................................. 813 821 -8 -1.0

State government ........................................................................... 5,164 5,090 74 1.4

State government education ................................................... 2,405 2,328 77 3.2

State government, excluding education ................................. 2,759 2,762 -3 -.1

Local government ........................................................................... 14,079 14,073 6 (1

)

Local government education ................................................... 8,055 8,064 -9 -.1

Local government, excluding education ................................. 6,024 6,009 15 .2

 1 Less than 0.05 percent.

Revisions to indexes

The entire historical data series for all indexes of aggregate

weekly hours and aggregate weekly payrolls have been

recalculated with this benchmark. This was necessary

because the indexes are based on the 2002 annual averages,

and these annual averages were revised during the 2003

 benchmarking process. Future benchmark revisions will not

have an impact on the 2002 base-year estimates.

Revisions in the postbenchmark period

Postbenchmark period employment estimates from April to

October 2003 were calculated for each month based on new

benchmark levels and new business net birth/death figures.

(See table 3.)

Table 4 shows the net birth/death model figures for the

supersectors over the postbenchmark period. From April to

December 2003, the cumulative net birth/death model

increased employment by 695,000.

Why benchmarks differ from estimates

A benchmark revision is the difference between the

benchmark level for a given March and its corresponding

sample-based estimate. The overall accuracy of the

establishment survey usually is gauged by the size of this

difference. The benchmark revision often is regarded as a

proxy for total survey error, but this does not take into

account error in the universe data. The employment counts

obtained from quarterly unemployment insurance tax forms

are administrative data that reflect employer recordkeeping
9

Exhibit 1. Newly published series effective with March 2003 benchmark revisions

Series title Sector

March 2003

NAICS benchmark

code employment

(in thousands)

Railroad rolling stock ........................................... 3365 Manufacturing 22.8

Ice cream and frozen desserts .......................... 31152 Manufacturing 21.5

Electronic shopping and electronic auctions ..... 454111, 2 Retail trade 51.2

Limousine service ............................................... 48532 Transportation and warehousing 35.2

Exhibit 2. Published series with changed scope effective with March 2003 benchmark revisions

Series title

March 2003

Series disposition NAICS benchmark

 code employment

(in thousands)

Computer terminals and other computer 334113, 9 72.0 Computer terminals (published), NAICS 334113

peripheral equipment is collapsed into Other computer peripheral

equipment, NAICS 334119

Electronic connectors and miscellaneous 334415, 6, 101.3 Electronic connectors (unpublished), NAICS

electronic components 7, 9 334417 is collapsed into Miscellaneous

electronic components, NAICS 334115, 6, 9

Commercial gravure and miscellaneous 323111, 5, 7, 129.4 Commercial gravure printing (unpublished),

commercial printing 8, 9 NAICS 323111 is collapsed into Miscellaneous

commercial printing, NAICS 323115, 7, 8, 9

Other major household appliances (unpublished) 335221, 4, 8 49.2 Household cooking appliances (published),

NAICS 335221 and Household laundry

equipment (unpublished), NAICS 335224 are

collapsed into Other major household appliances (unpublished), NAICS 335228

Exhibit 3. Discontinued published series effective with March 2003 benchmark revisions, by data type

Series title NAICS code Sector

Production workers, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and

average weekly earnings series

Turbine and turbine generator set units ............. 333611 Manufacturing

Directory and mailing list publishers ................... 51114 Information

Tour operators ..................................................... 56152 Professional and business services

All other personal services ................................. 81299 Other services

Average overtime hours

Men’s cut and sew apparel contractors ............. 315211 Manufacturing

Petroleum refineries ............................................ 32411 Manufacturing

practices and differing State laws and procedures. The

benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as the

difference between two independently derived employment

counts, each subject to its own error sources.

Like any sample survey, the establishment survey is

susceptible to two sources of error, sampling error and

nonsampling error. Sampling error is present any time a

sample is used to make inferences about a population. The

magnitude of the sampling error, or variance, relates directly

to sample size and the percentage of the universe covered

by that sample. The CES monthly survey captures slightly

under one-third of the universe, exceptionally high by usual

sampling standards. This coverage insures a small sampling

error at the total nonfarm employment level.

Both the universe counts and the establishment survey

estimates are subject to nonsampling errors common to all
10

surveys—coverage, response, and processing errors. The

error structures for both the CES monthly survey and the UI

universe are complex. Still, the two programs generally

produce consistent total employment figures, each validating

the other. Over the last decade, annual benchmark revisions

at the total nonfarm level have averaged 0.3 percent, with an

absolute range from less than 0.05 percent to 0.7 percent.

Benchmark revisions effects for other data types

The routine benchmarking process results in revisions in the

series on women workers and production or nonsupervisory

workers. There are no benchmark employment levels for these

series. They are revised by preserving ratios of employment

for the particular series to all employees prior to

benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised

all-employee figures. These figures are calculated at the basic

cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary

estimates.

Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings are

not benchmarked. They are estimated solely from reports

supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell

level.

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings

series are derived as weighted averages. The production or

nonsupervisory worker employment estimates for the basic

cells are used as weights for the hours and earnings estimates

Exhibit 4. Discontinued series effective with March 2003 benchmark revisions

Series title NAICS code Next-highest published level

Primary aluminum production (unpublished) ..................... 331312 NAICS 3313, Alumina and aluminum production

Aluminum sheet, plate, and foil (unpublished) ................... 331315 NAICS 3313, Alumina and aluminum production

Lawn and garden equipment (unpublished) ...................... 333112 NAICS 33311, Agricultural implements

Semiconductor machinery (published) ............................. 333295 NAICS 3332, Industrial machinery

Overhead cranes, hoists, and monorail systems

(unpublished) .................................................................... 333923 NAICS 33392, Material handling equipment

Household vacuum cleaners (unpublished) ..................... 335212 NAICS 33521, Small electrical appliances

Other communication and energy wires (unpublished) .... 335929 NAICS 33592, Communication and energy wires and

cables

Miscellaneous transportation equipment (unpublished) ... 336992, 9 NAICS 3369, Other transportation equipment

Cellulosic organic fibers (unpublished) ............................. 325221 NAICS 3252, Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers

Noncellulosic organic fibers (unpublished) ....................... 325222 NAICS 3252, Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers

N.A. = not available.

Table 3. Revisions in total nonfarm employment, seasonally adjusted, January-December 2003

2003

January ........................................ 130,356 130,190 -166 158 94 -64

February ...................................... 130,235 130,031 -204 -121 -159 -38

March .......................................... 130,084 129,921 -163 -151 -110 41

April .............................................. 130,062 129,901 -161 -22 -20 2

May .............................................. 129,986 129,873 -113 -76 -28 48

June ............................................. 129,903 129,859 -44 -83 -14 69

July ............................................... 129,846 129,814 -32 -57 -45 12

August.......................................... 129,881 129,789 -92 35 -25 -60

September ................................... 129,980 129,856 -124 99 67 -32

October ........................................ 130,080 129,944 -136 100 88 -12

November .................................... 130,123 130,027 -96 43 83 40

December p .................................. 130,124 130,043 -81 1 16 15

As

previously

published

Difference As

revised

As

previously

published

As

revised

Levels Over-the-month changes

Year and month

(In thousands)

p = preliminary.

Difference
11

for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of the allemployee estimates to new benchmarks may alter the weights,

which, in turn, may change the estimates for hours and

earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers at higher

levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect

on hours and earnings estimates for major groupings. To

influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader

group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and

must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages

that are substantially different from those of other industries

in their group. Table 5 shows the previous and revised hours

and earnings estimates and the differences for specific hours

and earnings series resulting from the March 2003 benchmark.

At the total private level, there was a decrease of one-tenth

of an hour in average weekly hours from the previously

published level, while average hourly earnings decreased by

3 cents from the previously published level.

Methods

Benchmark adjustment procedure. Establishment survey

benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population

derived primarily from the administrative file of employees

covered by unemployment insurance (UI). Beginning this

year, the process has been accelerated from previous years’

June releases to a February release due, in large part, to the

earlier availability of the UI data. The benchmark adjustment

procedure replaces the March sample-based employment

estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The

benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels,

while sample movements capture month-to-month trends.

Benchmarks are established for each basic estimating cell

and are aggregated to develop published levels. On a not

seasonally adjusted basis, the sample-based estimates for

the year preceding and the year following the benchmark

also are then subject to revision. Employment estimates for

the months between the most recent March benchmark and

the previous year’s benchmark are adjusted using a “wedgeback” procedure. In this process, the difference between the

benchmark level and the previously published March estimate

for each estimating cell is computed. This difference, or error,

is linearly distributed across the 11 months of estimates

subsequent to the previous benchmark; eleven-twelfths of

the March difference is added to February estimates, tentwelfths to January estimates, and so on, ending with the

previous April estimates, which receive one-twelfth of the

March difference. The wedge procedure assumes that the

total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the

last benchmark. Applying previously derived over-the-month

sample changes to the revised March level yields revised

estimates for the months following the March benchmark.

New net birth/death model estimates also are calculated and

applied during postbenchmark estimation. This year, the

Federal Government employment series was recalculated from

May to September 2003 because of a substantial increase in

the size of its sample. The revisions were incorporated with

the March 2003 benchmarking process.

Benchmark source material. The principal source of

benchmark data for private industries is the Quarterly Census

of Employment and Wages (QCEW), also known as the ES202 report. This report contains employment data provided

to State Employment Security Agencies by employers covered

by State UI laws. BLS uses several other sources to establish

benchmarks for the remaining industries partially covered or

exempt from mandatory UI coverage, accounting for 3 percent

of the nonfarm employment total.

Data on employees covered under Social Security laws,

published by the U.S. Census Bureau in County Business

Patterns, are used to augment UI data for nonoffice insurance

sales workers, child day care workers, religious organizations,

and private schools and hospitals. Benchmarks for State

and local government hospitals and educational institutions

are based on the Annual Census of Governments conducted

Table 4. Net birth/death estimates for private nonfarm sectors, post-benchmark 2003

(In thousands)

Natural

Con- ManuTrade,Infor- Financial

Profes- Educa- Leisure

Other

Total

restruction facturingtransmation activitiessional tion and and

services

monthly

Year and month sources portation, and health hos- amount

and and business services pitality conmining utilities services tributed

2003

April ............................... -1 13 -15 -4 -3 9 61 32 29 7 128

May ............................... 1 35 5 21 4 8 32 6 72 8 192

June .............................. 1 28 5 18 0 6 21 -4 83 6 164

July ................................ 0 -8 -29 -19 -4 -11 -22 -20 40 -10 -83

August........................... 1 16 6 17 2 8 31 14 24 5 124

September .................... 1 9 3 17 0 4 15 12 -29 1 33

October ......................... 1 8 -7 13 -1 14 18 26 -27 0 45

November ..................... -1 -7 3 17 3 7 10 10 -14 2 30

December ..................... 0 -8 1 18 3 13 9 7 15 4 62

Cumulative total ............ 3 86 -28 98 4 58 175 83 193 23 695
12

Table 5. Effect of March 2003 benchmark revisions on hours and earnings estimates, selected industries

Average weekly hours Average hourly earnings

Industry As As As As

previously revised Difference previously revised Difference

published published

Total private .................................... 33.8 33.7 -0.1 $15.34 $15.31 $-0.03

Goods-producing ...................................... 39.7 39.7 0 16.59 16.60 .01

Natural resources and mining ........................................ 43.8 43.8 0 17.58 17.50 -.08

Construction .................................................................... 38.2 38.2 0 18.73 18.74 .01

Manufacturing .................................................................. 40.3 40.3 0 15.62 15.62 0

Durable goods .......................................................... 40.6 40.6 0 16.33 16.34 .01

Wood products ................................................. 39.8 39.8 0 12.51 12.52 .01

Nonmetallic mineral products ........................... 42.0 42.0 0 15.52 15.53 .01

Primary metals ................................................. 42.6 42.6 0 17.86 17.88 .02

Fabricated metal products ............................... 40.4 40.4 0 14.97 14.97 0

Machinery ......................................................... 40.7 40.7 0 16.19 16.17 -.02

Computer and electronic products .................. 40.4 40.4 0 16.55 16.57 .02

Electrical equipment and appliances ............... 40.5 40.4 -.1 14.25 14.27 .02

Transportation equipment ................................ 41.5 41.6 .1 21.07 21.07 0

Furniture and related products ........................ 38.2 38.2 0 12.93 12.92 -.01

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................... 38.5 38.5 0 13.22 13.22 0

Nondurable goods ................................................... 39.9 39.9 0 14.53 14.51 -.02

Food manufacturing ......................................... 39.1 39.1 0 12.70 12.73 .03

Beverages and tobacco products ................... 38.8 38.8 0 17.69 17.85 .16

Textile mills ....................................................... 39.7 39.7 0 11.92 11.92 0

Textile product mills .......................................... 39.3 39.2 -.1 10.98 10.96 -.02

Apparel .............................................................. 36.0 36.0 0 9.45 9.44 -.01

Leather and allied products .............................. 39.9 39.9 0 11.62 11.59 -.03

Paper and paper products ............................... 41.6 41.6 0 17.22 17.10 -.12

Printing and related support activities ............. 38.6 38.6 0 15.33 15.32 -.01

Petroleum and coal products ........................... 45.9 45.9 0 24.17 24.09 -.08

Chemicals ......................................................... 42.6 42.6 0 18.33 18.33 0

Plastics and rubber products ........................... 40.1 40.1 0 14.00 14.01 .01

Private service-providing .......................... 32.5 32.4 -.1 15.00 14.96 -.04

Trade, transportation, and utilities .................................. 33.4 33.4 0 14.34 14.34 0

Wholesale trade ....................................................... 37.9 37.8 -.1 17.29 17.32 .03

Retail trade ............................................................... 30.6 30.6 0 11.90 11.90 0

Transportation and warehousing ............................. 36.7 36.6 -.1 16.23 16.19 -.04

Utilities ...................................................................... 41.1 41.1 0 24.41 24.47 .06

Information ....................................................................... 36.3 36.2 -.1 20.88 20.78 -.10

Financial activities ........................................................... 36.0 36.0 0 16.89 16.91 .02

Professional and business services .............................. 34.4 34.5 .1 17.36 17.34 -.02

Education and health services ....................................... 32.6 32.3 -.3 15.62 15.54 -.08

Leisure and hospitality .................................................... 25.7 25.7 0 8.73 8.75 .02

Other services ................................................................ 31.9 31.5 -.4 14.02 13.85 -.17

by the Census Bureau. Benchmark data from these sources

are available only on a 1- or 2-year lagged basis. Extrapolation

to a current level is accomplished by assuming and applying

the employment trends from the UI-covered part of the

population in these industries to the noncovered part.

Universe data for interstate railroads are obtained from the

Railroad Retirement Board.

Business birth and death estimation. Regular updating of

the CES sample frame, with information from the UI universe

files, helps to keep the CES survey current with respect to

employment from business births and business deaths. The

timeliest UI universe files available, however, always will be

a minimum of 6 to 9 months out of date. The CES survey thus

cannot rely on regular frame maintenance alone to provide

estimates for business birth and death employment

contributions. BLS has researched both sample-based and

model-based approaches to measuring birth units that have

not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research

demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the
13

very short CES production timeframes. Therefore, BLS is

utilizing a model-based approach for this component.

Earlier research indicated that, while both the business

birth and death portions of total employment are generally

significant, the net contribution is relatively small and stable.

To account for this net birth/death portion of total

employment, BLS is utilizing an estimation procedure with

two components. The first component uses business deaths

to impute employment for business births. This is

incorporated into the sample-based link relative estimate

procedure by simply not reflecting sample units going out of

business, but imputing to them the same trend as the other

firms in the sample. The second component is an ARIMA

(Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) time series

model designed to estimate the residual net birth/death

employment not accounted for by the imputations. The

historical time series used to create and test the ARIMA

model was derived from the UI universe microlevel database,

and reflects the actual residual net of births and deaths over

the past 5 years. The ARIMA model component is reviewed

on a quarterly basis. The net birth/death model component

figures are unique to each month and include negative

adjustments in some months. Furthermore, these figures

may exhibit a seasonal pattern observed in the historical UI

universe data series.

The most significant potential drawback to this or any

model-based approach is that time series modeling assumes

a predictable continuation of historical patterns and

relationships, and therefore is likely to have some difficulty

producing reliable estimates at economic turning points or

during periods when there are sudden changes in trend. BLS

will continue researching alternative model-based techniques

for the net birth/death component. It is likely to remain the

most problematic part of the estimation process.

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database on the Internet, contains

all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised

because of this benchmark, both unadjusted and seasonally

adjusted data. The data can be accessed at http://

www.bls.gov/ces/, the Current Employment Statistics

homepage. Employment, hours, and earnings estimates also

are published monthly in Employment and Earnings.

Seasonal adjustment procedure

BLS uses X-12-ARIMA software developed by the U.S.

Census Bureau to seasonally adjust national employment,

hours, and earnings series derived from the CES program.

BLS computes seasonal factors concurrently with the

monthly estimation production. Individual series are

seasonally adjusted using either a multiplicative or an additive

model. For employment, seasonal adjustment factors are

directly applied to the component levels. Individual threedigit NAICS levels are seasonally adjusted, and higher level

aggregates are formed by summation of these components.

Seasonally adjusted totals for hours and earnings are

obtained by taking weighted averages of the seasonally

adjusted data for the component series.

Special model adjustments

Variable survey intervals. Beginning with the release of the

1995 benchmark, BLS refined the seasonal adjustment

procedures to control for survey interval variations,

sometimes referred to as the 4- versus 5-week effect.

Although the CES survey is referenced to a consistent

concept—the pay period including the 12th of each month—

inconsistencies arise because there are sometimes 4 and

sometimes 5 weeks between the week including the 12th in a

given pair of months. In highly seasonal industries, these

variations can be an important determinant of the magnitude

of seasonal hires or layoffs that have occurred at the time

the survey is taken, thereby complicating seasonal

adjustment.

Standard seasonal adjustment methodology relies heavily

on the experience of the most recent 3 years to determine the

expected seasonal change in employment for each month of

the current year. Prior to the implementation of the

adjustment, the procedure did not distinguish between 4-

and 5-week survey intervals, and the accuracy of the seasonal

expectation depended in large measure on how well the

current year’s survey interval corresponded with those from

the previous 3 years. All else being the same, the greatest

potential for distortion occurred when the current month

being estimated had a 5-week interval but the 3 years

preceding it were all 4-week intervals, or, conversely, when

the current month had a 4-week interval but the 3 years

preceding it were all 5-week intervals.

BLS has adopted REGARIMA (regression with

autocorrelated errors) modeling to identify the estimated size

and significance of the calendar effect for each published

series. REGARIMA combines standard regression analysis,

which measures correlation among two or more variables,

with ARIMA modeling, which describes and predicts the

behavior of data series based on its own past history. For

many economic time series, including nonfarm payroll

employment, observations are autocorrelated over time. That

is, each month’s value is significantly dependent on the

observations that precede it. These series, thus, usually can

be successfully fit using ARIMA models. If autocorrelated

time series are modeled through regression analysis alone,

the measured relationships among other variables of interest

may be distorted due to the influence of the autocorrelation.

Thus, the REGARIMA technique is appropriate for

measuring relationships among variables of interest in series

that exhibit autocorrelation, such as nonfarm payroll

employment.

In this application, the correlations of interest are those

between employment levels in individual calendar months

and the lengths of the survey intervals for those months.

The REGARIMA models evaluate the variation in

employment levels attributable to 11 separate survey interval

variables, one specified for each month, except March. March
14

is excluded because there are almost always 4 weeks between

the February and March surveys. Models for individual basic

series were fitted with the most recent 10 years of data

available, the standard timespan used for CES seasonal

adjustment.

The REGARIMA procedure yields regression coefficients

for each of the 11 months specified in the model. These

coefficients provide estimates of the strength of the

relationship between employment levels and the number of

weeks between surveys for the 11 modeled months. The

X-12-ARIMA software also produces diagnostic statistics

that permit the assessment of the statistical significance of

the regression coefficients, and all series are reviewed for

model adequacy.

Because the 11 coefficients derived from the REGARIMA

models provide an estimate of the magnitude of variation in

employment levels associated with the length of the survey

interval, these coefficients are used to adjust the CES data to

remove the calendar effect. These “filtered” series then are

seasonally adjusted using the standard X-12-ARIMA

software previously used.

For a few series, REGARIMA models do not fit well. These

series are seasonally adjusted with the X-12 software, but

without the interval-effect adjustment. There are several

additional special effects modeled through the REGARIMA

process, which are described below.

Construction series. BLS continues its special treatment in

seasonally adjusting the construction industry series, which

began with the 1996 benchmark revision. In the application

of the interval-effect modeling process to the construction

series, there initially was difficulty in accurately identifying

and measuring the effect because of the strong influence of

variable weather patterns on employment movements in the

industry. Further research allowed BLS to incorporate

interval-effect modeling for the construction industry by

disaggregating the construction series into its finer industry

and geographic estimating cells and tightening outlier

designation parameters. This permitted a more precise

identification of weather-related outliers that had masked the

interval effect and clouded the seasonal adjustment patterns

in general. With these outliers removed, interval-effect

modeling became feasible. The result is a seasonally adjusted

series for construction that is improved because it is

controlled for two potential distortions, unusual weather

events and the 4- versus 5-week effect.

Floating holidays. BLS also continues the practice of making

special adjustments for average weekly hours and average

weekly overtime series to account for the presence or absence

of religious holidays in the April survey reference period and

the occurrence of Labor Day in the September reference

period.

Local government series. A special adjustment also is made

in the local government, excluding education series in

November of each year to account for variations in

employment due to the presence or absence of poll workers.

Refinements in hours and earnings seasonal adjustment.

With the release of the 1997 benchmark, BLS implemented

refinements to the seasonal adjustment process for the hours

and earnings series to correct for distortions related to the

method of accounting for the varying length of payroll

periods across months. There is a significant correlation

between over-the-month changes in both the average weekly

hour (AWH) and the average hourly earnings (AHE)

series and the number of weekdays in a month, resulting

in noneconomic fluctuations in these two series. Both

AWH and AHE show more growth in “short” months

(20 or 21 weekdays) than in “long” months (22 or 23

weekdays). The effect is stronger for the AWH than for the

AHE series.

The calendar effect is traceable to response and

processing errors associated with converting payroll and

hours information from sample respondents with semimonthly

or monthly pay periods to a weekly equivalent. The response

error comes from sample respondents reporting a fixed

number of total hours for workers regardless of the length of

the reference month, while the CES conversion process

assumes that the hours reporting will be variable. A constant

level of hours reporting most likely occurs when employees

are salaried rather than paid by the hour, as employers are

less likely to keep actual detailed hours records for such

employees. This causes artificial peaks in the AWH series in

shorter months that are reversed in longer months.

The processing error occurs when respondents with

salaried workers report hours correctly (vary them according

to the length of the month), which dictates that different

conversion factors be applied to payroll and hours. The CES

processing system uses the hours conversion factor for both

fields, resulting in peaks in the AHE series in short months

and reversals in long months. Currently, the CES processing

system can accommodate only one conversion factor per

reporter.

The series to which the length-of-pay-period adjustment

is applied are not subject to the 4- versus 5-week adjustment,

because the modeling cannot support the number of variables

that would be required in the regression equation to make

both adjustments.

Additive and multiplicative models. Prior to the March 2002

benchmark release, all CES series were adjusted using

multiplicative seasonal adjustment models. Although the

X-12-ARIMA seasonal adjustment program provides for

either an additive or a multiplicative adjustment, depending

on which model best fits the individual series, the previous

CES processing system was unable to utilize additive

adjustments. A new processing system, introduced

simultaneously with the NAICS conversion, is able to utilize

both additive and multiplicative adjustments. See exhibit 5

for a list of which series are adjusted with additive and

multiplicative models and which series are subject to the

calendar-effects modeling described earlier.
15

Exhibit 5. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week Easter/ Other Labor Day

All employees

Logging ............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Oil and gas extraction ...................................................... Multiplicative X

Mining, except oil and gas ............................................... - X Indirect 1

Coal mining ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Support activities for mining ............................................. Multiplicative X

Construction of buildings ................................................. - X Indirect 1

Heavy and civil engineering construction ....................... Additive X

Specialty trade contractors ............................................. - X Indirect 1

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Machinery ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Computer and electronic products .................................. - X Indirect 1

Computer and peripheral equipment ............................... Additive X

Communications equipment ............................................ Additive X

Semiconductors and electronic components .................. Multiplicative X

Electronic instruments ..................................................... Multiplicative X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Multiplicative X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Multiplicative X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Multiplicative X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X

Apparel ............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Multiplicative X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Additive X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade, durable goods ...................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade, nondurable goods ................................ Multiplicative X

Electronic markets and agents and brokers ................... Multiplicative X

Motor vehicle and parts dealers ...................................... - X Indirect 1

Automobile dealers ........................................................... Additive X

Furniture and home furnishings stores ........................... Multiplicative X

Electronics and appliance stores .................................... Multiplicative X

Building material and garden supply stores .................... Multiplicative X

Food and beverage stores .............................................. Multiplicative X

Health and personal care stores ..................................... Multiplicative X

Gasoline stations ............................................................. Multiplicative X

Clothing and clothing accessories stores ....................... Multiplicative X

Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores ........... Multiplicative X

General merchandise stores ........................................... - X Indirect 1

Department stores ........................................................... Multiplicative X

Miscellaneous store retailers ........................................... Additive X

Nonstore retailers ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Air transportation .............................................................. Multiplicative X

Rail transportation ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Water transportation ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Truck transportation ......................................................... Additive X

Transit and ground passenger transportation ................ Additive

Pipeline transportation ...................................................... Additive X

Scenic and sightseeing transportation ............................ Multiplicative X

Support activities for transportation ................................ Additive X

Couriers and messengers ............................................... Multiplicative X

Warehousing and storage ................................................ Multiplicative X

Mode of

adjustment 10/11

day

See footnotes at end of exhibit.
16

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Publishing industries, except Internet ............................. Multiplicative X

Motion picture and sound recording industries ............... Multiplicative X

Broadcasting, except Internet ......................................... Multiplicative X

Internet publishing and broadcasting .............................. Multiplicative X

Telecommunications ........................................................ Multiplicative X

ISPs, search portals, and data processing ..................... Multiplicative X

Other information services .............................................. Additive X

Monetary authorities – central bank ................................ Additive X

Credit intermediation and related activities ..................... - X Indirect 1

Depository credit intermediation ...................................... Multiplicative X

Commercial banking ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Securities, commodity contracts, investments ............... Multiplicative X

Insurance carriers and related activities ......................... Multiplicative X

Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles ..................... Multiplicative X

Real estate ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Rental and leasing services ............................................ Multiplicative X

Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets ....................... Multiplicative X

Professional and technical services ............................... - X Indirect 1

Legal services .................................................................. Multiplicative X

Accounting and bookkeeping services ........................... Multiplicative X

Architectural and engineering services ........................... Multiplicative X

Computer systems design and related services ............ Multiplicative X

Management and technical consulting services ............. Multiplicative X

Management of companies and enterprises ................... Multiplicative X

Administrative and support services ............................... - X Indirect 1

Employment services ...................................................... Multiplicative X

Temporary help services ................................................. Multiplicative X

Business support services .............................................. Multiplicative X

Services to buildings and dwellings ................................. Multiplicative X

Waste management and remediation services ............... Multiplicative X

Educational services ........................................................ Additive X

Ambulatory health care services ..................................... - X Indirect 1

Offices of physicians ....................................................... Additive X

Outpatient care centers ................................................... Additive X

Home health care services ............................................. Additive X

Hospitals ........................................................................... Additive X

Nursing and residential care facilities .............................. - X Indirect 1

Nursing care facilities ....................................................... Additive X

Social assistance ............................................................. - X Indirect 1

Child day care services ................................................... Multiplicative X

Performing arts and spectator sports ............................. Multiplicative X

Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks ................... Multiplicative X

Amusements, gambling, and recreation .......................... Multiplicative X

Accommodations .............................................................. Multiplicative X

Food services and drinking places ................................. Additive X

Repair and maintenance .................................................. Additive X

Personal and laundry services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Membership associations and organizations .................. Additive

Federal Government, except U.S. Postal Service .......... Multiplicative X

U.S. Postal Service........................................................... Multiplicative X

State government education ............................................ Additive X

State government, excluding education .......................... Multiplicative X

Local government education ........................................... Additive X

Local government, excluding education .......................... Additive X Election 2

Exhibit 5. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week Easter/ Other Labor Day

All employees

See footnotes at end of exhibit.

Mode of

adjustment 10/11

day
17

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Additive X

Mining ............................................................................... Additive X

Construction ..................................................................... Multiplicative X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Multiplicative X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Multiplicative X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Finance and insurance .................................................... Multiplicative X

Real estate and rental and leasing .................................. Additive X

Professional and technical services ............................... Multiplicative X

Management of companies and enterprises ................... Multiplicative X

Administrative and waste services ................................. Multiplicative X

Educational services ........................................................ Multiplicative X

Health care and social assistance .................................. Multiplicative X

Arts, entertainment, and recreation ................................. Multiplicative X

Accommodations and food services ............................... Multiplicative X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Federal Government ........................................................ Additive X

State government ............................................................. Multiplicative X

Local government ............................................................ Multiplicative X Election 2

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Multiplicative X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X

Machinery ......................................................................... Additive X

Computer and electronic products .................................. Multiplicative X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Multiplicative X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Multiplicative X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Additive X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X

Apparel ............................................................................. Additive X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Multiplicative X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Additive X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Additive X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Additive X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Additive X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Additive X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Multiplicative X

Other services ................................................................. Additive X

Exhibit 5. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

Mode of

4/5 week 10/11 Easter/ Other adjustment

day Labor Day

Women workers

Production or nonsupervisory workers 3

See footnotes at end of exhibit.
18

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Multiplicative X X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X X

Wood products ................................................................. Additive X X

Nonmetallic mineral products .......................................... Additive X X

Primary metals ................................................................. Multiplicative X X

Fabricated metal products ............................................... Multiplicative X X

Machinery ......................................................................... Multiplicative X X

Computer and electronic products .................................. Multiplicative X X

Electrical equipment and appliances ............................... Multiplicative X X

Transportation equipment ................................................ Multiplicative X X

Furniture and related products ........................................ Additive X X

Miscellaneous manufacturing .......................................... Additive X X

Food manufacturing ......................................................... Additive X X

Beverages and tobacco products ................................... Multiplicative X X

Textile mills ....................................................................... Additive X X

Textile product mills .......................................................... Additive X X

Apparel ............................................................................. Additive X X

Leather and allied products ............................................. Additive X X

Paper and paper products ............................................... Multiplicative X X

Printing and related support activities ............................. Additive X X

Petroleum and coal products ........................................... Multiplicative X X

Chemicals ......................................................................... Multiplicative X

Plastics and rubber products .......................................... Multiplicative X X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Multiplicative X X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Additive X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Additive X X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Additive X X

Natural resources and mining ......................................... Additive X

Construction ..................................................................... Additive X

Manufacturing, durable goods ......................................... Additive X

Manufacturing, nondurable goods ................................... Multiplicative X

Wholesale trade ............................................................... Multiplicative X

Retail trade ....................................................................... Multiplicative X

Transportation and warehousing ..................................... Additive X

Utilities .............................................................................. Multiplicative X

Information ........................................................................ Multiplicative X

Financial activities ............................................................ Multiplicative X

Professional and business services ............................... Multiplicative X

Education and health services ........................................ Multiplicative X

Leisure and hospitality ..................................................... Additive X

Other services ................................................................. Multiplicative X

Exhibit 5. Mode of adjustment used for seasonal adjustment of nonfarm payroll series—Continued

Industry

Special adjustments

4/5 week Easter/ Other Labor Day

Average weekly hours 3

Average overtime hours 4

Average hourly earnings 3

1 Seasonal adjustment occurs at the finest industry detail available.

2

 Special adjustment for the presence/absence of poll workers in

local government. 3 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and

mining and manufacturing; construction workers in construction;

and nonsupervisory workers in private service-providing

industries. 4

 Data relate to production workers in manufacturing.

10/11

day

Mode of

adjustment