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Bureau of Labor Statistics Report to the Appropriations Committees on a

New Cohort to the National Longitudinal Surveys 

March 2021 

Updated 5-Year Plan for Design and Cost 

(Fiscal Years 2021 to 2025) 

The following report provides an update on Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) investment into 

the planning, development and implementation of a new National Longitudinal Survey of 

Youth (NLSY) cohort, in response to the Statement of Managers accompanying the 

Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2021 (Pub.L. 116-260). The referenced House Report 116-

450 included the following directive: 

BLS shall brief the Committees on Appropriations with updated estimates for the 

annual costs and five-year plan for implementing the new NLSY cohort within 

90 days of enactment of this Act. 

This report updates information provided in the FY 2020 report to Congress on this topic. 

Background on the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) and overall approach to planning 

and development from the previous report can be found in the Appendix beginning on 

page 5 of this document. The updated plans and estimates for a new cohort build upon the 

activities undertaken by the NLS program in FY 2020 and in the early part of FY 2021, 

which included consultation with several internal and external stakeholders to develop 

effective plans for additional outreach. This work has sharpened the BLS vision for 

several steps to be taken during FY 2021. 

New Cohort Activities in FY 2020 and FY 2021 

NLS focused its efforts in FY 2020 on developing plans for the FY 2021 activities 

described below. NLS consulted with members of the NLS Technical Review Committee 

on how best to reach out to the broader user community for their input on desired new 

cohort content and the incorporation of non-survey data sources. Additionally, NLS staff 

conducted a review of other large scale, longitudinal social surveys that launched 

significant redesign efforts or new waves in the last 15 years. These included but were not 

limited to the National Survey of Family Growth, the Middle Grade Longitudinal Study, 

and the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study. A conference on a new NLS cohort 

originally scheduled for March 2020 was postponed until October 2020 due to the COVID19 pandemic. 

Below is a summary and high-level timeline of the major activities that NLS has begun or 

plans to begin in FY 2021. 
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CHRR at The Ohio State University/National Science Foundation New Cohort Conference

(FY 2021 Quarters 1 and 2)

In October 2020, CHRR at The Ohio State University, currently NLS’s prime contractor, hosted 

a conference entitled, “Shaping a New National Longitudinal Survey of Youth”. The 

conference brought together academics from many disciplines, leaders from federal agencies, 

and independent researchers to share information about previous achievements of the NLS, 

identify emerging and ongoing needs for studying upcoming workforce generations, and discuss 

how a new cohort could meet those needs. It established a critical foundation of interest in new 

cohort development from which to build stakeholder engagement and provided critical 

directions for the shaping of the new cohort’s content. CHRR is in the process of documenting 

the proceedings as well as input received from participants after the event and expects to have a 

report available by spring 2021. NLS will use the report as a building block for additional 

stakeholder outreach and as a key reference for the work of its content panels.

Sample Frame Assessment (FY 2021 Quarters 1 and 2)

In the first and second quarters, BLS subject matter experts have been assessing the different 

sample frames available for a new cohort. NLS will summarize its findings and provide a 

recommendation to senior BLS management by May 2021. 

User Outreach (FY 2021 Quarters 2 to 4)

After consulting with the NLS Technical Review Committee, NLS determined that the best way 

to obtain feedback on a new cohort is through a series of web seminars conducted in partnership 

with other federal agencies. These seminars will provide the opportunity for greater community 

engagement, because they can include introductory information about NLS suitable for wider 

audiences. By partnering with other agencies, NLS can tailor the discussions towards survey 

features that are relevant to these agencies and the associated user communities. NLS has been 

in contact with several agencies [National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, 

Department of Justice, Department of Education, Department of Housing and Urban 

Development, and the Evaluation office at the Department of Labor (DOL)] to begin planning 

the webinars, which NLS expects to hold by June 2021.

To ensure outreach is as inclusive as possible, NLS plans to gather additional input through a 

survey of the public to be accessed through the BLS website during the fourth quarter of 

FY 2021.

Dissemination Assessment (FY 2021 Quarter 2 to FY 2022 Quarter 3)

As it designs the new cohort, NLS will evaluate alternatives for data dissemination. Potential 

options include development and maintenance of an in-house dissemination system and the use 

of a contractor-based system. Current NLS cohorts use the latter approach, but this may not be 

optimal for the new cohort. To evaluate the potential use of an in-house dissemination system, 

NLS will determine the related costs and benefits; this work will include developing 

requirements and cost estimates to build and maintain the system. NLS would like to complete 
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the dissemination assessment by the third quarter of FY 2022 so that BLS can determine 

whether to include dissemination as part of the new cohort contracts. 

Vendor Capability Assessment (FY 2021 Quarters 2 to 4)

As part of the information gathering process, NLS intends to put out a Request for Information 

(RFI) to (a) assess vendor capabilities to work with NLS in developing a new cohort/survey, 

and (b) solicit ideas and feedback from vendors on how best to do this work in the current 

regulatory and financial environment. In addition to putting out the RFI, the NLS expects to 

work with the DOL Office of the Senior Procurement Executive (OSPE) to hold a “Vendor 

Day.” This will allow for greater interaction with vendors and discussion of technical questions 

regarding information technology, security, data dissemination and contract structure. 

Based on the information collected from the RFI and Vendor Day, NLS staff will compile a 

summary of findings and recommendations. This will be used as an input for developing the 

Request for Proposal (RFP).

Content Panels (FY 2021 Quarter 3 to FY 2023 Quarter 2)

Determining the structure and the content of the data to be collected from the new cohort will 

require an extensive, coordinated effort among leading subject matter experts in a wide range of 

disciplines. As it has with previous cohorts, NLS will convene content panels to perform this 

vital function. NLS plans to put out an RFP for a vendor to conduct content panels for the new 

cohort. These content panels will consist of experts in particular fields (such as employment, 

education, and health) to review the questionnaire content of the existing cohorts and 

recommend questionnaire content for the new cohort. NLS plans for the RFP to go out in early 

summer 2021, with a target signing date prior to the end of FY 2021. 

Request for Proposal(s) - Design through Wave 1 collection (FY 2021 Quarter 4 to FY 2022 

Quarter 4)

The current intention of NLS is that much of the work in developing and fielding this new 

cohort will be performed by experts under contract with BLS. Agreement on the scope of the 

contract-- the nature and type of work to be performed, as well as the structure and funding of 

the work-- must be determined prior to putting out a RFP.

An Integrated Project Team (IPT) will be formed to develop the solicitation. It shall include 

stakeholders from across the BLS representing the NLS program, and administrative and IT 

offices, as well as stakeholders from DOL OSPE.

NLS anticipates that the process of scope determination, putting out an RFP, and reviewing 

bidders will take approximately 12 months. Whether work is combined into one large contract 

or is scattered among smaller contracts may impact how quickly work on different parts of the 

survey may begin. NLS does not anticipate starting this work until late in fiscal year 2021 so 

that other aspects of the research phase can be completed.
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Updated Estimates for Annual Costs

These planned activities are broadly consistent with the 5-year plan that BLS previously 

proposed for development of the new NLSY cohort (described in more detail in the 

Appendix), with two exceptions:

1. Some of the activities originally anticipated for FY 2020 were pushed into FY 2021 due to 

the COVID-19 pandemic, such as the postponement of the CHRR/NSF conference, 

originally planned for March 2020, to October 2020. The cost for FY 2020 and out-year 

estimates are revised to account for this shift in timeline as shown in the table below. 

2. Initial planning revealed that the development of a dissemination system for the new 

cohort may require a larger expenditure than originally anticipated. The estimated costs 

reflect current projections for this effort.

The updated cost estimates for the 5-year plan are as follows:

FY Estimated Cost Major Tasks

2020 $0.2 million

(actual)

Planning

2021 $2.0 million Stakeholder outreach, including conferences and web seminars; and 

continue planning, including content panels, assessments of sample 

frames, dissemination needs, and vendor capabilities 

2022 $3.0 million Continue content panels and other design activities (including 

sampling, survey, materials, dissemination)

2023 $14.5 million Complete content panels, continue design, and begin survey 

development (sampling, survey,

questionnaire, materials, dissemination, and systems work)

2024 $14.5 million Continue survey and systems development and begin pretesting 

preparations 

2025 $17.0 million Pretest fielding, revisions to systems and the survey resulting from 

the pretest, and preparation for round 1 screening and data 

collection to occur in 2026

Several of the above estimates are preliminary and will continue to be refined as planning and 

development activities continue. Although the increases to BLS statistical programs provided in 

the FY 2020 and FY 2021 appropriations are funding the planning and stakeholder outreach 

efforts in FY 2020 and 2021, the BLS also has needed to use these increases to cover federal pay 

raises, as well as increases in agency Federal Employees Retirement System (FERS)

contributions, while adhering to the requirements of maintaining staffing levels and other 

statistical products. Due to these required costs, the current BLS appropriation is insufficient to 

fund many of the significant and costly activities for a new NLS cohort, including design, formal 

development, or fielding of a new cohort. At this time, BLS anticipates that the ongoing annual 

cost after development would be $20 million, though an additional $7 million could be needed in 

FY 2026 for one-time costs of lengthier interviews during the first year of collection due to

screening of the sample, obtaining consent, and interviewing parents.
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APPENDIX

Information in this appendix was taken from the report outlining cost and design options for a 

new youth cohort to the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLS) in response to the Joint 

Explanatory Statement that accompanied the Further Consolidated Appropriations Act, 2020 

(Pub.L. 116-94), which directed the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) to:

Initiate spending on the planning and development of a new National Longitudinal 

Survey of Youth (NLSY) cohort. BLS shall brief the Committees on the annual costs and 

a five-year plan for implementing the new NLSY cohort within 90 days of enactment of 

this Act.

The full report is available at https://www.bls.gov/bls/congressional-reports/report-to-theappropriations-committees-on-a-new-cohort-to-the-national-longitudinal-surveys.pdf. 

Background Information on the National Longitudinal Surveys

The design options presented in this report build upon BLS experience and analysis of its two 

ongoing longitudinal surveys. Reports and additional information about these surveys are 

available upon request.

1. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1979 (NLSY79)

The NLSY79 sample is composed of 12,686 young men and women who were born in 

the years 1957 to 1964. Data were first collected in 1979, when sample members were 

ages 14-22. In fall 2019, BLS completed round 28 of data collection with NLSY79 

sample members who are ages 55 to 63. BLS has followed this cohort of late Baby 

Boomers for nearly 40 years, recording their lives from their teens into their 50s and early 

60s. 

2. National Longitudinal Survey of Youth 1997 (NLSY97)

The NLSY97 began over 20 years ago with the collection of data from a sample of 

approximately 9,000 youths who were born in the years 1980 to 1984. The sample 

members were ages 12-16 as of December 31, 1996. In fall 2019, BLS began round 19 

of data collection for this cohort with sample members ages 35 to 40.

Over the years, thousands of academic journal articles and reports have examined NLS data to 

improve the understanding of the U.S. labor market and help policymakers develop programs to 

enhance the well-being of American workers. The longitudinal approach of the NLS program 

provides data to economists, sociologists, and other researchers in government, academia, and 

private organizations to answer such questions as how wages change over time, how schooling 

and training contribute to the development and maintenance of skills to obtain and keep good 

jobs over one’s career, how individuals navigate work and family responsibilities, and how 

individuals plan for retirement as their careers come to an end. 

To continue building on these longstanding strengths of the NLS program, BLS envisions that a 

new youth cohort would cover a broad range of topics related to labor market outcomes. 
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Respondents in previous NLS cohorts have been asked a core set of questions that provide 

extensive information on employment, training, education, sources of income, assets, marital 

status, fertility, health, attitudes toward work, and occupational and geographical mobility. BLS 

anticipates that the new youth survey content would cover these same topics, thus enabling the 

study of educational experiences, achievement, cognitive and non-cognitive skills, and the 

transition from school to work; training programs and training in the workplace; the value of 

early-career job exploration; geographic mobility; relationships between the workplace and the 

well-being of the family and family transitions; drug and alcohol use; juvenile delinquency and 

criminal behavior; fertility and childbearing; and employment and earnings of workers.

As with past NLS cohorts, a new NLS youth survey would collect detailed information about 

each job held, along with the characteristics of that job, including wages, hours, occupation, and 

industry. Each period of nonwork would be investigated to capture time spent looking for work 

and other factors that distinguish the unemployed from those not in the labor force. Detailed 

information would be collected on education and training, and events such as marriage and 

divorce, as well as fertility, all of which affect labor market choices.

Planning and Development Approach

As part of its planning and development of a new youth cohort, BLS would also consider how 

best to include data sources outside of survey responses to complement and enrich the survey 

data it collects as part of a new youth cohort. These additional data sources could include 

cognitive assessments, school information and school records, activity monitors, time diaries, 

and parent interviews, as well as other administrative data. The identification of useful data 

sources and the application of innovative technologies to blend them with NLS survey data is a 

key focus of the NLS program’s ongoing improvement efforts.

BLS estimates that the planning and development of a new youth cohort would take

approximately five years. To begin, extensive consultation would be conducted with 

stakeholders in government, academia, and the private sector, such as federal agencies, 

policymakers, users of NLS products, and relevant advisory committees. BLS currently is 

considering several approaches, such as public forums, expert panels, targeted interviews, and 

formal information solicitations, to ensure that its outreach gathers insight from the stakeholder 

community’s broad range of knowledge and interest. The planning and development process 

also would include significant efforts devoted to designing the sample and the survey and 

developing a system to collect, process, and disseminate the data. Additionally, a new survey 

would need to undergo testing and complete the review and clearance processes as required by 

the Paperwork Reduction Act. Round 1 data collection could occur as early as Fiscal Year 

(FY) 2026.

The proposed timeline includes a lengthy period for stakeholder outreach and survey planning. 

BLS has determined that such a time period is necessary in order to determine practices that 

achieve high data quality while controlling costs and risks. This determination recognizes that 

the survey landscape has changed dramatically over the last three decades. Many inputs and 

factors used to develop the NLSY97 cohort are no longer valid or relevant, and the federal 

government has not initiated a longitudinal survey of this size and scope for many years. The 
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proposed outreach and planning period would allow BLS to investigate approaches to address 

several factors, including:

• Declining response rates across surveys

• Increasing costs that exceed the rate of inflation

• A reduction in the use of landlines

• Alternative modes of communication, survey administration and incentive payments

• Prioritized use of administrative and other existing data

• Integration of paradata and responsive design into data collection activities

• Enhanced respondent confidentiality and data security requirements

• Comparability across retired and existing cohorts

While it may be possible to accelerate the outreach and planning phase with additional resources, 

a deliberative planning and outreach effort is likely to result in enhanced data quality and longrun cost-effectiveness. In addition, other areas of the schedule cannot be easily compressed. For 

example, if BLS decides to contract some or all of this work to an outside vendor, it would 

require a significant lead time of 12 to 18 months to procure these services. There may be ways 

to accelerate implementation of the survey, but that is difficult to forecast without adequate 

discussion and research.

BLS recommends the first round of interviewing be an in-person survey of approximately 

15,000 respondents in the age range of 11 to 16. The sample for the new youth cohort would be 

representative of the U.S. population from these birth years at the time the new survey begins. 

BLS would consider the inclusion of oversamples to facilitate statistically reliable analyses of 

sub-groups whose employment and economic outcomes may be of special interest.

A sample size in the neighborhood of 15,000 respondents strikes what BLS believes to be a 

reasonable balance between cost and research objectives. The cost estimates are based upon 

fielding annual in-person surveys to ensure that the data are timely and to facilitate identifying 

changes in schooling and employment as the youth move through their teens, a period where 

many school and work transitions occur and administrative data do not necessarily capture wages 

and earnings. Different interviewing schedules will be considered after consultation with 

stakeholders. Reducing the level of detail or survey periodicity would reduce the estimated 

costs, but not proportionately, due to relatively fixed infrastructure and development costs. As 

part of stakeholder outreach and planning activities carried out in the next two years, BLS will 

refine its proposed approach to introducing a new cohort and will update estimated costs 

accordingly.