Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

2

Students and jobseekers need information when deciding how to choose 

and train for a career. To aid in those decisions, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) develops employment projections every 2 years 

that estimate job growth or decline in hundreds of occupations. For the past 

several years, BLS analysts have used these projections to study the overall 

future demand for workers by education level. 

The two articles that follow introduce a new method of evaluating opportunities by education. The first article considers the job outlook for people 

who do not have a bachelor’s degree. The second article describes the job 

outlook for people who have, or plan to pursue, a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Both articles highlight occupations that are expected to be in demand, 

and both include information on the earnings and education that workers in 

some of those occupations attain. 

But the articles include only a sample of the occupations for which BLS 

develops projections. For a more complete picture of job outlook, see BLS 

publications such as the 2004-05 editions of the Occupational Outlook Handbook and Occupational Projections and Training Data. Information about 

these and other resources are provided in the final sections of each article.

Job outlook by education: 

Measuring demand for 

high school and college 

graduates
3

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

You have skills. You have knowledge. And you 

can have a good career—regardless of whether 

you have a bachelor’s degree. According to U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projections, millions of 

job openings will be available between 2002 and 2012 for 

people who don’t have a bachelor’s degree. And many of 

these job openings will be in high-paying occupations. 

A bachelor’s degree brings many benefits, but it is 

not the only route to a job. In fact, most jobs are filled 

by workers who do not have a degree, and BLS does 

not expect that to change. Between 2002 and 2012, job 

openings for workers who are entering an occupation for 

the first time and who don’t have a bachelor’s degree are 

expected to total roughly 42 million. That’s more than 3 

times the number of job openings expected for workers 

who have a bachelor’s degree.

Many of these jobs will require some training after 

high school. That could mean enrolling in vocational 

classes at a technical school, taking a few college courses, training on the job in an apprenticeship program, or 

getting an associate degree. 

But which occupations should you train for? Which 

are expected to offer the best prospects? Read on to learn 

about the occupations that are projected to have the most 

openings for people who do not have a bachelor’s degree 

and about high-demand occupations that pay well. Next, 

learn more about career fields—including construction, 

healthcare, education, and computer work—that are 

expected to provide good opportunities for new workers. 

Accompanying tables identify projected openings and 

2002 earnings for occupations in each of these career 

fields. 

As the information beginning on page 11 explains, 

the data in this article are estimates. They are based on 

the education levels of current workers and on projections 

of future job growth. Additionally, the results assume that 

future workers will have education levels similar to those 

of current workers. The data provided throughout the 

article, along with the resources listed at the end, can help 

you decide how to pursue a career that interests you.

Openings and where they will be

Between 2002 and 2012, BLS expects about 56 million 

job openings to be filled. Of this total, about 42 million 

openings are projected to be filled by workers who do 

not have a bachelor’s degree and who are entering an 

occupation for the first time. About 27 million of these 

openings are expected to be held by workers who have a 

high school diploma or less education. Another 15 million openings are expected for workers who have some 

college education or an associate degree but do not have a 

bachelor’s degree. 

Job outlook for people who don’t 

have a bachelor’s degree

by Roger Moncarz and Olivia Crosby

Roger Moncarz, (202) 691-5694, and Olivia Crosby, (202) 691-5716, are economists in the 

Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS. 
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

4

because of retirements.

Another factor affecting job openings is job growth. 

Some occupations gain new positions faster than others, 

providing more openings for workers who seek to enter 

the occupation.

The occupations that are expected to need the most 

new workers between 2002 and 2012 employ workers 

with widely varying levels of education. Many openings 

are expected in occupations that people can enter right 

after high school. But openings in other occupations, 

especially higher paying ones, often attract people who 

have additional training or education. People without 

training also enter these occupations, but they often start 

out earning less while they train on the job. 

Occupations with the most openings. Chart 1 shows 

the occupations that 

are projected to have 

the most job openings 

between 2002 and 2012 

for people who have 

less education than a 

bachelor’s degree. Most 

of these occupations 

involve working with 

the public.

You can enter most 

of the occupations 

shown in the chart if 

you have a high school 

diploma or less education. Workers often 

qualify for jobs after 

less than 1 month of 

on-the-job training. 

But four of the occupations—truck drivers, customer service 

representatives, general 

maintenance and repair 

workers, and registered 

nurses—usually require 

more training. These 

are also the highest 

paying occupations on 

the chart.

Truck drivers 

usually need 1 month 

Job openings are expected in every type of occupation. But some occupations and career fields will have 

more job openings and better earnings than others. 

Occupations with potential

Two main factors determine whether an occupation will 

have many job openings for workers entering an occupation. One factor is how many workers leave the occupation permanently. Large occupations—that is, occupations in which many jobs exist nationwide—have more 

workers and, therefore, also usually have more workers 

who leave the occupation and create openings. Occupations with few training requirements or low earnings also 

often have more workers who leave. And occupations 

with many older workers usually provide more openings 

Openings for workers with 

some college/associate degree

Openings for workers with 

a high school diploma or less

Maid and housekeeping cleaners

Maintenance and

repair workers, general

Registered nurses

Landscaping and groundskeeping workers

Childcare workers

Food preparation workers

Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants

Security guards

Teacher assistants

Customer service representatives

Receptionists and information clerks

Stock clerks and order fillers

Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer

Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand

Office clerks, general

Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food

Waiters and waitresses

Retail salespersons

Cashiers, except gaming

29,370

48,090

19,770

16,350

16,330

19,960

19,140

18,660

26,240

21,150

19,270

33,210

18,250

19,710

22,280

14,500

14,150

17,710

$15,420

16,440

Median annual

earnings, 2002

450

450

470

471

473

523

534

541

582

595

602

625

844

876

972

1,317

1,446

1,556

2,124

450

Openings (thousands)

Chart 1

Occupations with the most job openings for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s degree and 

who are entering the occupation for the first time, projected 2002-12 
5

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

to 1 year of training on the job; some attend vocational 

schools to learn the basics of commercial driving. Customer service representatives, who also often receive 1 

month to 1 year of training, usually start their jobs by 

observing experienced workers. Most general maintenance and repair workers learn on the job or in vocational 

classes in high school or later. Registered nurses, unlike 

the other occupations in the chart, almost always have 

some college training. About two-fifths of registered 

nurses over age 25 have an associate degree or have taken 

some college courses, and nearly all of the rest have a 

bachelor’s degree. 

Chart 1 also gives the occupations’ 2002 median 

earnings. (Median earnings show that half of the workers 

in the occupation earned more than that amount, and half 

earned less.) All but 

three of the occupations had median earnings below $27,380—

the median for workers 

in 2002. 

But median earnings don’t show the 

wide variation in pay 

that exists in some 

occupations. For 

example, earnings for 

some customer service 

representatives, such 

as those who provide 

help for complex 

computer problems, 

are significantly higher 

than the median. But 

these same workers are 

usually highly skilled 

and have several 

months of on-the-job 

training; some also 

have a bachelor’s 

degree. 

Occupations with 

high earnings and lots 

of openings. According to BLS data, about 

350 of the occupations 

expected to provide 

openings for high school graduates also had higher-thanaverage median earnings in 2002. Chart 2 shows the highpaying occupations that are expected to have the most job 

openings for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s degree. 

Workers in all of these occupations have technical skills 

or supervisory responsibilities. And all of the occupations 

usually employ workers who complete moderate or longterm on-the-job training, college courses, or vocational 

classes. 

Nearly half of the occupations in the chart relate to 

construction or manufacturing. Some of these occupations require physical strength; but many, such as electricians, do not. Completing a formal apprenticeship can 

increase your chances of getting a job in these occupations. Studying algebra and taking vocational classes in 

0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers

First-line supervisors/managers of

mechanics, installers, and repairers

Correctional officers and jailers

First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction workers

Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters

Police and sheriff's patrol officers

First-line supervisors/managers of

production and operating workers

Electricians

Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses

First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers

Automotive service technicians and mechanics

Carpenters

Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products

First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers

General and operations managers

Executive secretaries and

administrative assistants

Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks

Maintenance and repair workers, general

Registered nurses

Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer

Openings for workers with 

some college/associate degree

Openings for workers with 

a high school diploma or less

47,580

32,670

47,670

40,170

42,270

42,930

41,390

31,440

38,820

30,590

34,190

42,730

29,700

68,210

33,410

27,380

29,370

48,090

$33,210

29,160

Median annual

earnings, 2002

180

192

197

205

206

224

285

295

297

319

319

341

367

394

424

431

450

450

625

177

Openings (thousands)

Chart 2

High-paying occupations with the most job openings for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree and who are entering the occupation for the first time, projected 2002-12 
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

6

high school can also help you qualify.

Another way to a high-paying career is to work toward becoming a supervisor. Many high school graduates 

transfer to managerial occupations as they gain experience. According to some studies, having formal training 

or taking college courses can increase the chances of 

becoming a supervisor.

Competing with college workers. Some of the occupations shown in the charts are expected to provide 

jobs to workers who have a bachelor’s degree, as well 

as to workers who do not have one. When an occupation has workers who have different levels of education, 

the workers with more education are often better able to 

compete for jobs. This is particularly true if the occupation requires complicated math, science, writing, or other 

academic skills. 

If you do not have a bachelor’s degree and are 

competing with people who do, you can increase your 

competitiveness in a number of ways. These include gaining work or volunteer experience, taking high school or 

college classes that relate to an occupation, and completing a certification.

Additionally, consider contacting your State’s labor 

market information office to learn about work, volunteer, 

education, and training opportunities. You can also find 

out which training programs have high placement rates 

and which occupations are most in demand in your area.

Table 1 

Selected office and administrative support occupations

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degree, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant 

source of education 

or training

High school 

diploma or 

less

Some 

college/

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or graduate 

degree

Office clerks, general 972,000 $22,280

Short-term 

on-the-job training 41% 42% 17%

Stock clerks and order fillers 602,000 19,270

Short-term 

on-the-job training 65 26 9

Receptionists and 

information clerks 595,000 21,150

Short-term 

on-the-job training 50 39 12

Customer service 

representatives 582,000 26,240

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 38 40 21

Bookkeeping, accounting, 

and auditing clerks 431,000 27,380

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 40 44 16

Executive secretaries and 

administrative assistants1 424,000 33,410

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 37 47 16

Tellers 311,000 20,400

Short-term 

on-the-job training 44 43 13

First-line supervisors/

managers of office and 

administrative support 

workers 297,000 38,820

Work experience in a 

related occupation 33 40 27

Postal service mail carriers2 105,000 39,530

Short-term 

on-the-job training 52 40 8

Legal secretaries1 100,000 35,020 Vocational certificate 37 47 16

1

 BLS does not have reliable education data for different types of secretaries; all secretaries were categorized as a group. 

2

 BLS does not have reliable education data for this occupation specifically; data for related occupations were used.
7

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

Career fields with promise

Opportunities abound in almost every career field. The information that follows gives an overview of the expected 

job openings and common educational requirements for 

occupations in six widely varying fields. Career fields 

with the most expected openings are discussed first.

The accompanying tables show occupations that 

are expected to have many openings over the 2002-12 

decade. The tables also show 2002 earnings, along with 

the percentage of current workers aged 25 to 44 who have 

a high school diploma or less, some college courses or 

an associate degree, or a bachelor’s or graduate degree. 

College courses or degrees may or may not relate to the 

occupation. 

Also listed is the specific type of training, such as onthe-job training, a vocational certificate, or an associate 

degree, that BLS analysts deemed most significant in the 

occupation. 

Office and administrative support. People who 

like business and teamwork should expect to find many 

opportunities in office and administrative support occupations. Between 2002 and 2012, these occupations are 

projected to provide several million openings for workers who do not have a bachelor’s degree. Many of these 

openings, such as those for stock clerks, usually require 

little training after high school. (See table 1.) Summer 

jobs or high school classes in English, typing, and computer-related subjects can pave the way. 

Other occupations, such as dispatchers and eligibility 

interviewers, often require months of on-the-job training. Many office workers also take some college courses 

to hone their skills, earn certifications, and increase their 

opportunity for advancement. 

Healthcare. For workers who have an interest in 

science and in helping people, healthcare occupations 

are expected to provide some of the most plentiful and 

highest paying career opportunities. Overall, healthcare 

occupations are projected to provide nearly 3 million job 

openings between 2002 and 2012 for workers who don’t 

have a bachelor’s degree. Many of these openings are 

expected to result from fast growth. Table 2 lists 10 of 

the healthcare occupations with high earnings in 2002 or 

a large number of expected openings over the 2002-12 

decade. 

As the table shows, training varies widely within 

most of these occupations. For example, the most signifiTable 2

Selected healthcare occupations

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degrees, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant source 

of education or training

High school 

diploma or less

Some college/

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s or 

graduate degree

Nursing aides, orderlies, and 

attendants1 523,000 $19,960

Short-term 

on-the-job training 63% 31% 6%

Registered nurses 450,000 48,090 Associate degree 2 40 58

Home health aides1 355,000 18,090

Short-term 

on-the-job training 63 31 6

Licensed practical and licensed 

vocational nurses 295,000 31,440

Vocational 

certificate 23 72 5

Medical assistants 282,000 23,940

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 37 50 14

Dental assistants 187,000 27,240

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 34 57 8

Emergency medical technicians and 

paramedics2 80,000 24,030 Vocational certificate 24 63 13

Radiologic technologists and 

technicians 53,000 38,970 Associate degree 11 66 24

Dental hygienists 50,000 55,320 Associate degree 5 63 32

Respiratory therapists 41,000 40,220 Associate degree 5 68 28

1

Education data for this occupation come from the larger occupational group of which it is a part.

2

BLS does not have reliable education data for this occupation; data for related occupations were used.
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

8

cant source of preparation for nursing aides and home 

health aides is less than 1 month of on-the-job training. 

But a large number of aides have taken college courses—

either to qualify for certifications or to prepare for other, 

higher paying healthcare occupations. Some aides may 

have college coursework unrelated to their job.

Having a job in one occupation while training for 

another is a common advancement strategy for healthcare 

workers. Emergency medical technicians and paramedics, 

for example, need certification and some formal training before they start work. With additional training and 

experience, workers can progress to higher levels of certification and new job duties. To receive the highest level 

of certification, most paramedics must earn an associate 

degree. 

In part because the skills they need are becoming 

more complex, healthcare workers are getting more training. Often, this extra education pays off. Although many 

dental assistants train on the job, for example, about 25 

percent of these workers aged 25 and over have an associate degree. And median earnings of dental assistants who 

have an associate degree are about 23 percent higher than 

the earnings of those who have a high school diploma or 

less. 

For some healthcare occupations, BLS analysts were 

able to draw conclusions about the level of competition that future jobseekers might face. Analysts gathered 

anecdotal evidence and other data, including information 

on the number of people who have recently completed 

training programs. Analysts concluded that over the 

2002-12 decade, there could be excellent opportunities in 

the following healthcare occupations: 

Dental assistants

Dental hygienists

Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians

Medical records and health information technicians

Nursing, psychiatric, and home health aides 

Registered nurses

Respiratory therapists.

These occupations usually 

employ people who have some 

on-the-job training or education 

after high school.

Construction. An interest in building things 

can lead to a career with 

prospects. More than 2 

million job openings are 

•

•

•

•

•

•

•

Table 3

Selected construction occupations

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degrees, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant 

source of education or 

training

High school 

diploma or less

Some college/

associate degree

Bachelor’s 

or graduate 

degree

Carpenters 319,000 $34,190

Long-term 

on-the-job training 73% 22% 5%

Electricians 285,000 41,390

Long-term 

on-the-job training 50 44 6

Plumbers, pipefitters, and 

steamfitters 205,000 40,170

Long-term 

on-the-job training 67 29 4

First-line supervisors/managers of 

construction trades and extraction 

workers* 197,000 47,670

Work experience in a 

related occupation 63 27 10

Operating engineers and other 

construction equipment operators 127,000 35,240

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 79 19 2

Painters, construction and 

maintenance 120,000 29,070

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 77 17 6

Sheet metal workers 90,000 34,560

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 69 30 2

Cement masons and 

concrete finishers 84,000 30,660

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 85 13 2

Roofers 70,000 30,180

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 85 12 3

Drywall and ceiling tile installers 58,000 33,710

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 84 14 2

* BLS does not have reliable education data for this occupation specifically; data for related occupations were used.
9

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

projected for workers entering construction occupations

between 2002 and 2012. And most of these occupations 

pay more than the average for all occupations. 

There are many types of construction occupations. 

Some require outdoor work, others don’t; some involve 

a high level of mathematics, others require math skills 

that are more basic. Many workers in construction occupations start as apprentices, taking vocational classes 

and getting paid for on-the-job training. Some workers 

receive college credit for the vocational classes they take. 

Table 3 shows the 10 construction occupations 

expected to have the most job openings over the 2002-

12 decade. In 2002, all of these occupations had median 

earnings that were above the average for all occupations.

For three of the occupations in the table—carpenters; 

plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters; and roofers—BLS 

analysts had enough information to conclude that the job 

openings could outnumber jobseekers in some years and 

in some places. Prospects are considered excellent. 

BLS analysts also concluded that two other construction occupations—insulation workers and brickmasons, 

blockmasons, and stonemasons—are expected to provide 

good opportunities.

Police and other protective service. Workers who 

keep the public safe from crime, natural disasters, and 

fire are projected to be in high demand. Between 2002 

and 2012, protective service occupations are expected to 

provide about 1.4 million job openings for workers who 

don’t have a bachelor’s degree. As table 4 shows, most of 

these openings are projected to be in three occupations: 

Security guards, police and sheriff’s patrol officers, and 

correctional officers and jailers. 

Security guards can usually qualify for their jobs if 

they have a high school diploma or less. Once employed, 

security guards often receive some on-the-job training. 

Armed guards need training and licensure. Guards working in specialized fields, such as nuclear power plant 

security, receive extensive formal training after being 

hired and usually earn more than other guards. Correctional officers also train on the job, but they usually train 

Table 4

Selected protective service occupations

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degrees, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant source 

of education or training

High school 

diploma or 

less

Some 

college/

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or graduate 

degree

Security guards 534,000 $19,140

Short-term 

on-the-job training 52% 35% 13%

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers 206,000 42,270

Long-term 

on-the-job training 19 53 28

Correctional officers and jailers 192,000 32,670

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 43 47 10

Fire fighters 140,000 36,230

Long-term 

on-the-job training 26 58 16

First-line supervisors/managers of 

police and detectives 36,000 61,010

Work experience in a 

related occupation 17 54 28

Crossing guards* 36,000 18,680

Short-term 

on-the-job training 76 23 1

First-line supervisors/managers 

of fire fighting and prevention 

workers* 26,000 55,450

Work experience in a 

related occupation 18 57 25

First-line supervisors/managers of 

protective service workers, except 

police, fire and corrections 21,000 34,320

Work experience in a 

related occupation 31 46 23

Detectives and criminal 

investigators 18,000 51,410

Work experience in a 

related occupation 9 35 56

Private detectives and investigators 10,000 29,300

Work experience in a 

related occupation 18 36 46

* BLS does not have reliable education data for this occupation specifically; data for related occupations were used.
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

10

longer and are paid more than security guards. In some 

States, correctional officers receive months of training 

and instruction, often while attending academies.

Police and sheriff’s patrol officers train on the job 

in police academies, and many take classes in criminal 

justice after high school and before entering the academy. 

Bachelor’s degrees are becoming more common among 

police and can make it easier to advance, but skills and 

character are often more important than education. Employers’ requirements depend on geographic location and 

job type.

Education and childcare. Career opportunities in 

schools and daycare centers will continue to be plentiful. More than 1.2 million openings are expected in this 

field between 2002 and 2012 for workers who don’t have 

a bachelor’s degree. Within these occupations, workers 

have wide ranges of training and education. (See table 

5.) Teacher assistants, who are expected to have the most 

job openings among occupations in this group, are often 

required to have an associate degree or to pass an exam. 

But many others train on the job, especially if their work 

involves supervising children rather than helping with 

instruction. 

Preschool teachers and childcare workers often have 

an associate degree, too. But the degree is not always 

required for workers in these two occupations; instead, 

workers earn an associate or bachelor’s degree to learn 

skills and increase their advancement opportunities. A 

common strategy is to take courses that lead to certifications and later apply the courses toward either a 2- or 

4-year degree, or both. 

Self-enrichment education teachers, the highest paid 

occupation in the table, often teach a hobby or skill, such 

as art, dance, or cooking, in which they have expertise. 

Computer. Explosive growth in information technology is expected to create many openings for people 

who like working with computers. Openings in computer-related occupations for workers who don’t have 

a bachelor’s degree are expected to total about 444,000 

between 2002 and 2012. Industry certifications or computer experience are particularly important in this field, 

in part because many college graduates also compete for 

these jobs.

According to industry experts, people who don’t have 

a bachelor’s degree may find it easiest to enter the following computer occupations: Computer support specialists, 

network and computer systems administrators, and certain types of network systems and data communications 

analysts.

The computer support specialist occupation is projected to 

provide the most openings. (See 

table 6.) Specialists who don’t 

have a 4-year degree increase 

their marketability by earning certifications or getting computer experience while they are in school or are 

working in other jobs. 

Network and computer 

systems administrators include 

workers 

at every 

educational 

level. Many administrators who 

don’t have a degree 

begin their careers 

Table 5

Selected education and childcare occupations

Percent of workers aged 25 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degree, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant source 

of education or training

High school 

diploma or less

Some college/

associate degree

Bachelor’s or 

graduate degree

Teacher assistants 541,000 $18,660

Short-term 

on-the-job training 44% 40% 16%

Childcare workers 471,000 16,350

Short-term 

on-the-job training 53 34 13

Preschool teachers, except 

special education 107,000 19,270 Vocational certificate 22 31 47

Self-enrichment education teachers 37,000 29,320

Work experience in a 

related occupation 14 30 55

Library technicians* 37,000 24,090

Short-term 

on-the-job training 23 35 42

* Because fewer than 10,000 workers were aged 25-44, workers above age 44 were also counted when identifying educational distribution. 
11

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

as computer support specialists, switching to more highly 

paid administrator jobs after they gain computer experience. 

Web masters, computer security professionals, and 

Local Area Network (LAN) support staff are also expected to be in high demand. All of these workers are part of 

the occupation of network systems and data communications analysts. Many of these workers have a bachelor’s 

degree, but others substitute coursework, experience, or 

certifications. 

Workers in each of these computer occupations had 

above-average earnings in 2002. But workers who have 

a bachelor’s degree are included in those earnings figures; earnings might be lower for workers who have less 

education.

 

How these numbers were developed

Measuring job outlook by education is complicated, and 

there are many ways to do it. This analysis used expected 

job openings as a way to measure outlook because the 

number of job openings helps to determine how easy it 

will be for workers to enter an occupation. The analysis 

used survey data as an objective way to separate openings 

by education level.

Like any analysis based on projections and estimates, 

however, this one has limitations. Understanding these 

limitations allows people to better use the results. 

Methods used

To determine job prospects, BLS analysts started by 

projecting the total number of job openings available 

between 2002 and 2012 for workers entering an occupation for the first time. Next, analysts estimated how many 

of those openings would be filled by workers who do not 

have a bachelor’s degree and how many openings would 

be in high-paying occupations.

Job openings. Job openings come from two sources: 

The need to fill newly created positions and the need to 

replace workers who leave an occupation permanently. 

To estimate the number of openings that will come 

from newly created positions, analysts projected how 

much each occupation would grow or decline between 

2002 and 2012. There are many reasons that the number 

of jobs in an occupation might change. Sometimes, the 

demand for a certain type of good or service increases—for example, when an aging population creates the 

need for more healthcare services and, as a result, more 

healthcare technicians. The way a good or service is provided also can create the need for more jobs in an occupation, such as when library technicians gain jobs faster 

than librarians do because employment of technicians is 

considered to be more cost effective.

Many occupations that employ people who do not 

have a bachelor’s degree are projected to gain jobs rapidly. In fact, for 6 of the 10 fastest growing occupations, 

Table 6

Selected computer-related occupations

Percent of workers aged 24 to 44 with...

Occupations

Net openings for 

workers without 

bachelor’s degrees, 

projected 2002-12 

Median 

annual 

earnings, 

2002

Most significant 

source of education or 

training

High school 

diploma or 

less

Some 

college/

associate 

degree

Bachelor’s 

or graduate 

degree

Computer support specialists 109,000 $39,100 Associate degree 16% 43% 42%

Computer systems analysts 72,000 62,890 Bachelor’s degree 10 27 62

Network and computer systems 

administrators 53,000 54,810 Bachelor’s degree 11 39 50

Computer programmers 46,000 60,290 Bachelor’s degree 8 22 70

Network systems and data 

communications analysts 45,000 58,420 Bachelor’s degree 11 31 58

Computer and information 

systems managers 37,000 85,240

Bachelor’s plus 

experience 7 22 70

Computer operators 31,000 29,650

Moderate-term 

on-the-job training 39 41 20

Database administrators 15,000 55,480 Bachelor’s degree 10 23 67
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

12

a bachelor’s degree is not the most significant source of 

training. The occupation projected to be the fastest growing of all occupations over the 2002-12 decade, medical 

assistant, often employs people who train on the job.

The need to replace workers who leave an occupation 

permanently is expected to provide even more openings 

than job growth will. To estimate how many workers will 

need to be replaced during the 2002-12 decade, analysts 

studied both past trends in each occupation and the ages 

of current workers. In some occupations, workers usually 

stay for many years. In other occupations, people tend to 

leave more quickly. These considerations affect replacement needs.

Openings by education. After analysts projected the 

total number of job openings in each occupation, they 

estimated how many of those openings would be filled 

by workers who fall into one of three different education 

levels: A high school diploma or less, some college or an 

associate degree, or a bachelor’s or graduate degree. 

Analysts determined which levels of education were 

significant in each occupation by looking at the education levels of current workers as reported in 2000, 2001, 

and 2002 Current Population Survey data. If at least 20 

percent of workers had a particular level of education, 

that level was deemed significant. Expected job openings 

were divided among each of the significant education levels, according to how common that education level was 

for workers in the occupation. 

For example, chemical technicians include workers 

who have each of the three levels of education: About 

32 percent of technicians have a high school diploma or 

less, about 40 percent have completed some college or an 

associate degree, and about 29 percent have a bachelor’s 

or graduate degree. Therefore, the expected openings for 

chemical technicians were divided among these categories using the corresponding percentages. The openings 

for workers who had less than a bachelor’s degree were 

added to the total.

In addition to describing the three educational attainment categories, this article discusses specific education 

and training requirements for some occupations. These 

discussions are based on occupational analyses conducted 

for the Occupational Outlook Handbook.

Openings by earnings. The earnings data in this 

article are from the BLS Occupational Employment Statistics survey. The survey reflects the 2002 earnings of all 

workers, without regard to education level or experience. 

Also, the survey does not include self-employed workers. 

In this analysis, occupations were considered high-paying 

if their median earnings were above the median for all 

workers in 2002.

Limitations of the data

To measure total job openings and openings by education 

level, BLS analysts needed to make some assumptions 

about the future. First, analysts assumed that the education levels in each occupation would remain roughly the 

same over the 2002-12 decade. In reality, the educational 

characteristics of some occupations change over time. 

Many occupations—such as registered nurses and police 

officers—have shown a gradual increase in the education 

levels of their workers. 

Analysts also ignored education levels that were 

uncommon in an occupation; as stated previously, at 

least 20 percent of workers in an occupation had to have 

a given level of education for it to be considered significant. So, for example, even though 18 percent of current 

massage therapists have a high school diploma or less, 

none of that occupation’s future openings were slated for 

workers with that level of education.

Another limitation of this study is that it focuses on 

the number of job openings expected in an occupation. 

Job openings give only a partial view of the prospects 

that workers can expect. The number of people who will 

compete for those openings is also important. For most 

occupations, BLS analysts do not have enough information about the future supply of workers to analyze the 

competition for jobs. 

Finally, the accuracy of this study is limited by its 

use of survey data. Surveys are always subject to some 

error because not every worker is counted and because 

the information gathered is sometimes incorrect. In addition, many of the occupations studied here could not 

be counted with enough statistical accuracy because the 

number of workers surveyed was too small. In those 

cases, analysts substituted the education levels of similar occupations or groups of occupations that had larger 

numbers of workers. 

Despite the assumptions and limitations of this 

analysis, there is evidence that counting future job openings using the method described here produces accurate 

results. When existing jobs are separated into educational 

categories using this method, the results closely match 

current numbers. 
13

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

For more information

To learn more about the occupations described here and 

about the hundreds of other occupations expected to provide openings for workers who don’t have a bachelor’s 

degree, see the 2004-05 Occupational Outlook Handbook, available in many libraries and career centers and 

online at www.bls.gov/oco. The Handbook describes the 

job outlook, education and training requirements, and job 

duties of nearly 270 occupations.

Another BLS publication, the 2004-05 Occupational 

Projections and Training Data bulletin, explains in detail 

the methods used in this study and lists the projected job 

openings and worker education levels for every occupation studied by the BLS Office of Occupational Statistics 

and Employment Projections. The bulletin is available 

online at www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm and is for 

sale by calling the Superintendent of Documents toll-free 

at 1 (866) 512-1800. 

The Occupational Outlook Quarterly also has two 

articles that discuss career-training options other than 

a bachelor’s degree: “Apprenticeship: Career training, 

credentials—and a paycheck in your pocket,” in the summer 2002 issue (online at www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2002/

summer/art01.pdf), and “Associate degree: Two years 

to a career or a jump start to a bachelor’s degree,” in 

the winter 2002-03 issue (online at www.bls.gov/opub/

ooq/2002/winter/art01.pdf).

And to help workers prepare for a career, the U.S. 

Department of Education offers information about 

financial aid for people attending 2-year colleges, 4-year 

colleges, and vocational schools. Call the financial aid 

hotline toll-free at 1 (800) 4FED-AID (433-3243); write 

the Federal Student Aid Information Center, P.O. Box 84, 

Washington, DC 20044-0084; or visit online at 

www.studentaid.ed.gov.

Studying potential job openings is only a starting 

point when deciding on a career. Many other considerations are important, including individual skills and 

interests, personal circumstances, and the needs of local 

employers. To explore these and other factors in your 

career decision, visit State labor market information offices and career centers. Information is available online 

at www.servicelocator.org or by calling the U.S. Department of Labor’s toll-free helpline, 1 (877) US2-JOBS 

(872-5627). 

And when you visit a career center or library, check 

out some other articles in the Quarterly. Many, including 

“Matching yourself with the world of work 2004” (online 

at www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2004/fall/art01.pdf) and 

“From hobby to career: Transforming your pastime into a 

profession,” (www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/2001/Fall/

art01.pdf) discuss career strategies for jobseekers who 

have different levels of education and training. 

Opportunities are as varied as the workers who seek 

them. And when it comes to training, finding what is best 

for you is one of the surest routes to reward. 

13

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly