Actuarial Notes

U.S. Railroad Retirement Board Bureau of the Actuary and Research

No. 1 – 21 

December 2021

Longevity of Railroad Retirement Beneficiaries

Based on studies of experience data compiled from the Twenty-Eighth Actuarial Valuation of the 

railroad retirement system, which was made as of December 31, 2019, the Bureau of the Actuary 

and Research has calculated the life expectancies of railroad retirement beneficiaries. These 

studies have been conducted for male and female age annuitants, disability annuitants, spouses 

and widows. Results of the studies are contained in the following discussion and the two attached 

tables.

Comparisons with studies done for the twenty-seventh valuation show a general improvement in 

life expectancies for all but female age annuitants. As shown in the chart below, life expectancy 

for railroad retirement age annuitants has generally improved in our studies over the last 20 

years, but the rate of improvement has slowed more recently. 
Life expectancies may help provide an indication of the amount that will be paid out in benefits 

for individual situations, since a benefit is generally payable until the individual beneficiary dies. 

In the case of spouses and widows, another event, such as death of the employee or remarriage of 

the widow, may terminate all or a portion of the benefit. 

Table 1 illustrates the differences in longevity among the categories of railroad retirement 

beneficiaries and also shows life expectancy figures for the total U.S. population. The figures for 

railroad retirement beneficiaries show age and disability retirements separately, while those for 

the U.S. population do not segregate disabled lives.

As indicates in table 1, a male railroad worker retiring at age 65 may expect, on the average, to 

receive his annuity for 18.5 years or approximately 222 months; while one retiring at age 62 may 

expect to receive his annuity for 21.0 years or approximately 252 months. (This difference 

partially explains why the benefit may be reduced for early commencement.) At age 65, female 

railroad retirement age annuitants have a life expectancy of 20.8 years, which is 2.3 years longer 

than males at the same age. 

Females at age 65 in the U.S. population as a whole live 2.6 years longer on the average than 

males. While a female annuitant at age 65 may expect to live about 20.8 years and a female 

spouse at age 65 may expect to live about 21.3 years, a female widow may only expect to live 

19.1 years or almost 2 years less than a female annuitant or spouse. One reason for the 

difference in longevity may be that a widow’s life expectancy is affected by a change in financial

position, less beneficial activity, and the intangible effect of bereavement brought on by the 

husband’s death. 

Life expectancies for disability beneficiaries are shown below. Both those disabled from 

performing their regular occupation and those totally disabled from performing any occupation 

are included. Total disabilities are those which meet the more restrictive disability standards of 

social security.

Life expectanciesa at selected ages for railroad disability annuitants at 

retirement and 5 or more years after retirement

5 or more years

Ageb At retirement after retirement

45 c 27.5 28.2

50 24.4 24.3

55 21.3 21.6

60 17.7 18.3

65 15.1

70 12.1

75 9.3

80 6.9

a Based on experience between 2015 and 2018 anniversaries of retirement.

b Age nearest birthday.

c Data not statistically significant.

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This table indicates that the life expectancy of a person newly disabled is generally lower than 

that of a person disabled a number of years earlier. At age 55, for example a recently disabled 

person may expect to live 21.3 years on average, while one disabled 5 or more years ago has a 

life expectancy of 21.6 years.

The data used to calculate life expectancy figures also provide a basis for estimating what 

proportion of the retired population may be expected to remain alive at the end of a particular 

number of years in the future. The chances of survival for 5, 10, 15 and 20 years of retired 

individuals are given in table 2. According to these figures, from a group of 1,000 male age 

annuitants at age 65: 

• 936 will survive at least 5 years, 

• 828 at least 10 years, 

• 664 at least 15 years, and 

• 457 at least 20 years.

From a group of 1,000 female age annuitants at age 65, 560 will be alive 20 years later.

Life expectancy figures are averages for large groups. The future lifetime of a particular 

individual may be longer or shorter than the life expectancy for their age group. Under the 

railroad retirement system, there have been many who have received benefits for 30 years or 

more.

Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic

Note that the experience studies on which this report is based do not cover the pandemic years. 

Preliminary experience for the pandemic years indicates that mortality rates were higher than 

expected, particularly at older ages and for those with disabilities, which would result in slightly 

lower life expectancies. However, the unfavorable impact has been greatly reduced during 2021 

with the introduction of effective vaccines. It is unclear how much lasting, longer-term impact 

the virus will have on future life expectancies.

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Table 1

Life expectancies at ages 60-85 for railroad

retirement beneficiaries and for the general population

Railroad Retirementa

Age annuitants Disability Aged U.S. Populationb

Agec Males Females Annuitants Spousesd Widowse Males Females

60 22.7 25.3 18.2 25.6 23.3 21.8 24.8

61 21.8 24.4 17.6 24.7 22.3 21.0 24.0

62 21.0 23.5 17.0 23.9 21.5 20.3 23.1

63 20.1 22.6 16.4 23.0 20.7 19.5 22.3

64 19.3 21.7 15.7 22.2 19.9 18.8 21.5

65 18.5 20.8 15.1 21.3 19.1 18.1 20.7

66 17.7 19.9 14.5 20.5 18.3 17.4 19.9

67 16.9 19.1 13.9 19.6 17.5 16.7 19.1

68 16.1 18.3 13.3 18.8 16.8 16.0 18.3

69 15.3 17.4 12.7 18.0 16.1 15.3 17.5

70 14.6 16.6 12.1 17.2 15.4 14.6 16.8

71 13.8 15.8 11.5 16.4 14.7 13.9 16.0

72 13.1 15.1 10.9 15.6 14.1 13.3 15.2

73 12.4 14.3 10.4 14.9 13.4 12.6 14.5

74 11.7 13.6 9.8 14.2 12.8 12.0 13.8

75 11.1 12.9 9.3 13.5 12.1 11.3 13.1

76 10.5 12.2 8.8 12.8 11.5 10.7 12.4

77 9.9 11.6 8.3 12.1 11.0 10.1 11.7

78 9.3 10.9 7.8 11.4 10.4 9.6 11.1

79 8.7 10.2 7.3 10.8 9.8 9.0 10.4

80 8.2 9.6 6.9 10.1 9.2 8.4 9.8

81 7.7 9.0 6.5 9.6 8.7 7.9 9.2

82 7.1 8.4 6.1 8.9 8.1 7.4 8.6

83 6.6 8.0 5.7 8.4 7.6 6.9 8.1

84 6.2 7.5 5.4 7.8 7.1 6.4 7.5

85 5.7 7.0 5.1 7.3 6.7 6.0 7.0

a

 Based on experience between anniversaries of retirement in 2015 and 2018 for all annuitants.

 Age annuitants are retired former railroad employees receiving age and service based annuities. 

 Disability annuitants are disabled former railroad employees who are receiving disability retirement

 under either occupational disability provisions or total and permanent disability provisions.

 Disability annuitants under occupational disability provisions may not have as high mortality as 

 those with total and permanent disability.

b

 Tables 2 and 3, United States Life Tables, 2018, National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 69, No. 12,

 November 17, 2020.

c For railroad retirement data, age basis is age nearest birthday at beginning of policy year; for U.S.

 population data, age basis is exact age.

 d About 94 percent of spouses are female.

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Table 2

Chances of survival for specified periods, 

by age and category of railroad retirement beneficiary

Number alive per 1,000 after Number alive per 1,000 after

Agea 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years 5 years 10 years 15 years 20 years

Male age annuitants Female age annuitants

60 961 900 796 638 979 939 858 737

65 936 828 664 457 958 876 753 560

70 885 709 489 249 914 785 584 366

75 802 552 281 87 859 639 400 155

Spouses Widows

60 970 926 851 737 962 892 785 644

65 955 877 759 589 927 816 669 486

70 919 796 617 388 881 722 524 308

75 866 672 423 181 820 596 350 135

All disability annuitants

60 891 773 625 448

65 868 702 503 296

70 809 580 341 149

75 717 421 185 46

Disabled annuitants

Disability annuitants at retirement disabled 5 or more years

45 935 846 776 696 956 865 794 712

50 911 836 750 651 904 830 744 646

55 901 808 702 567 918 823 714 578

60 863 749 606 434 896 778 629 451

65 b b b b 868 702 503 296

70 c c c c 809 580 341 149

75 c c c c 717 421 185 46

a

 Age nearest birthday approximates exact age.

b Insufficient data.

c

 Not applicable. Disability annuities are not awarded after normal retirement age.

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