Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

14
15

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

You’ve heard it again and again: Having a college 

degree leads to higher earnings and more career 

opportunities. But is it true? 

For the most part, it is. When it comes to paychecks 

and prospects, conventional wisdom is right. On average, 

college graduates earn more money, experience less unemployment, and have a wider variety of career options 

than other workers do. A college degree also makes it 

easier to enter many of the fastest growing, highest paying occupations. In some occupations, in fact, having a 

degree is the only way to get your start.

According to statistics and projections from the U.S. 

Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), college graduates will 

continue to have bright prospects. Data consistently show 

that workers who have a bachelor’s or graduate degree 

have higher earnings and lower unemployment than 

workers who have less education. And between 2002 and 

2012, more than 14 million job openings are projected to 

be filled by workers who have a bachelor’s or graduate 

degree and who are entering an occupation for the first 

time. 

A college education can be costly, of course, in terms 

of both time and money. But the rewards can be bigger 

than the sacrifices if a degree helps you to qualify for occupations that interest you. 

Keep reading to learn about the benefits of having 

a college degree and the demand for college graduates. 

You’ll also find out which occupations are expected to 

offer the most job openings for people who are entering 

them for the first time. Many of these occupations employ workers who have more education than a bachelor’s 

degree. A box beginning on page 21 shows which occupations usually offer the biggest financial rewards for 

getting a graduate degree. 

In this article, a college graduate is defined as a 

person who has a bachelor’s, master’s, or doctoral 

(Ph.D.) degree or a professional degree, such as one in 

law or medicine. For a discussion of associate degrees or 

other levels of education, see the companion article, “Job 

outlook for people who don’t have a bachelor’s degree,” 

beginning on page 3 in this issue of the Quarterly.

College graduates: In demand 

and doing well

More people are going to college now than ever before, 

in part because of the career advantages that a college 

degree confers. College-educated workers’ higher earnings and lower unemployment are good reasons to go 

to college, and these benefits are also evidence of the 

demand for college graduates. Higher earnings show that 

employers are willing to pay more to have college graduates work for them. And lower unemployment means that 

Job outlook for college graduates

by Jill N. Lacey and Olivia Crosby

Jill N. Lacey, (202) 691-5806, and Olivia Crosby, (202) 691-5716, are economists in the 

Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, BLS. 
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

16

college graduates are more likely to find a job when they 

want one.

More people going to college

The number of people who have a college degree has 

been increasing steadily. According to Current Population 

Survey data, the number of people aged 25 and older who 

have a college degree grew from 35 million to 52 million 

between 1992 and 2004, an increase of almost 50 percent. 

By mid-2004, nearly 28 percent of people aged 25 and 

older had a bachelor’s or graduate degree. (See chart 1.) 

Higher earnings, lower unemployment

As a whole, college-educated workers earn more money 

than workers who have less education. In 2003, workers 

who had a bachelor’s degree had median weekly earnings of $900, compared with $554 a week for high school 

graduates—that’s a difference of $346 per week, or a 

62 percent jump in median earnings. (Median earnings 

show that half of the workers in the educational category 

earned more than that amount, and half earned less.) 

For workers who had a master’s, doctoral, or professional degree, median earnings were even higher. In 

addition to earning more money, workers who had more 

education were also less likely to be unemployed. Chart 

2 shows the median earnings and unemployment rates for 

workers at various levels of educational attainment.

Taken together, higher earnings and more regular 

employment amount to large differences in income over 

a lifetime. (See, for example, “More education means 

higher earnings—for life: Synthetic worklife earnings 

estimates by highest level of educational attainment,” the 

OOChart in the fall 2002 Quarterly.)

Higher earnings for workers who have a college 

degree are part of a long-term trend. Even when adjusted 

for inflation, the wages of college-educated workers have 

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

27

28

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

Percent

Year

Chart 1

Percent of population aged 25 and older with a bachelor’s or graduate degree, 1992-2004

Source: Current Population Survey
17

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

been rising over the past decade. (See chart 3.) Moreover, 

the earnings for college-educated workers have been increasing faster than the earnings for workers who do not 

have a bachelor’s degree.

The trouble with averages

Statistics about college graduates paint a rosy—and 

numerically accurate—picture of overall employment. 

But the data are based on college graduates as a whole. 

For every graduate who earns more than the median, another earns less. And while unemployment rates are low 

overall, many college graduates sometimes have trouble 

finding work, especially if they wait for the type of job 

they want. 

The career prospects of individuals depend on many 

factors besides having a college degree. These factors 

include the local job market, the type of degree they have, 

their level of experience and skill, and the occupation 

they are trying to enter. 

Openings and where they will be

Between 2002 and 2012, BLS projects 56 million job 

openings for workers who are entering an occupation for 

the first time. Of these, at least 14 million are expected to 

be filled by college-educated workers. More than half 

of these openings are expected to come from the need 

to fill newly created jobs. 

The remaining openings for college-educated 

workers are projected to come from the need to replace workers who leave an occupation permanently. 

With many of today’s college-educated workers poised 

to retire, replacement needs are expected to be great, 

especially in large occupations.

In some occupations, most workers have bachelor’s or graduate degrees. In other occupations, education levels are more varied. 

Many of the occupations that are expected to have 

the most openings for college graduates are in the 

business, computers and engineering, education, counseling, and healthcare fields.

“Pure college” occupations 

For this analysis, it is assumed that each future job 

opening will be for a college-educated worker. In 

these “pure college” occupations, at least 60 percent 

of current workers aged 25-44 have a bachelor’s or 

graduate degree, fewer than 20 percent have a high 

school diploma or less education, and fewer than 20 

0 2

8 4 6

10

Unemployment rate Median weekly earnings

Source: Current Population Survey

$396

554

2.1

1.7

2.9

3.3

4.0

5.2

1,349

1,307

1,064

900

672

Some college, no degree 622

Doctoral degree

Less than a high school 

diploma

Professional degree

High school diploma, 

including GED

Master’s degree

Bachelor’s degree

Associate degree

4.8% - National unemployment rate National median weekly earnings - $662

8.8%

5.5

Education 

Chart 2

Unemployment and earnings for full-time workers aged 25 and over, by educational attainment, 2003
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

18

percent have some college courses but less education than 

a bachelor’s degree. Even if some workers do not have a 

bachelor’s or graduate degree, all openings are counted 

as being for college-educated workers because that most 

accurately reflects the job market new workers face. (For 

more about the methods used to count job openings, see 

the section beginning on page 25.)

BLS projects that pure-college occupations will provide about 6.8 million openings over the 2002-12 decade 

for college graduates who are entering an occupation for 

the first time. Chart 4 shows the 20 pure-college occupations expected to provide the most openings during the 

projections decade. Like nearly all pure-college occupations, all but one of the occupations on the chart have 

earnings above $27,380, the 2002 median for all workers. 

Despite high numbers of job openings, jobseekers can face strong competition when trying to enter 

some occupations, such as public relations specialists or 

management analysts. Because these occupations offer high earnings and prestige and because workers can 

qualify with many different college majors, the number 

of qualified workers who want these jobs could be greater 

than the number of openings. Analyses of job competition are possible for a few occupations, ones for which 

there is anecdotal evidence or for which other data exist. 

To qualify for many of the occupations shown on chart 4, 

workers need more than a bachelor’s degree. In three of 

the occupations—lawyers, physicians and surgeons, and 

pharmacists—a professional degree is required. Similarly, 

physical therapists now train for their occupation only in 

a master’s or doctoral degree program. 

In other occupations, educational requirements are 

more flexible. About one-fourth of management analysts 

have a master’s degree, for example, but many analysts 

do not have education 

beyond a bachelor’s 

degree. School teachers, too, often have a 

graduate degree, but 

many teachers earn 

that degree after they 

begin their careers; 

while employed, they 

take graduate-level 

courses to gain skills, 

qualify for higher 

salaries, and maintain 

certification. In many 

occupations, employment and advancement opportunities 

improve with attainment of a graduate 

degree, even when 

one is not required 

for career entry. 

Education level 

often determines 

the type of work 

a person can do 

within an occupation. 

Psychologists, for example, usually need 

a doctoral degree to 

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

55,000

60,000

Bachelor's or graduate degree

Associate degree

Some college, no degree

High school diploma or less

1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001

Mean weighted annual earnings, in 2001 dollars

Year

Chart 3

Real (inflation-adjusted) average annual earnings, by educational attainment, 1991-2001
19

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

do independent, clinical work, but some school psychologists do not need this level of education. Social workers 

can get some jobs with a bachelor’s degree, but to work 

in a clinical setting, they often need a graduate degree. 

“Mixed education” occupations

Many college graduates work in occupations that employ 

workers who have a variety of education levels. Over the 

2002-12 decade, about 23 million openings are projected 

to be in occupations in which the number of collegeeducated workers is significant—20 percent or more—but 

for which college is not the only level of education workers have. For example, of the 1.1 million job openings 

projected for registered nurses, over 650,000 are projected to be filled by bachelor’s or graduate degree holders 

based on current educational attainment patterns. Overall, 

of the 23 million job openings in these “mixed education” 

occupations, BLS expects 7.5 million to be filled by 

college graduates.

Chart 5 shows the mixed-education occupations that 

are expected to provide the most openings over the projections decade for college graduates who are entering an 

occupation for the first time. In several of these occupations, such as registered nurses, police and sheriff’s patrol 

officers, and wholesale and manufacturing sales representatives, the education levels of workers have been rising. 

When hiring workers, some employers prefer their new 

employees to be college graduates, even though many 

0 200 400 600 800 1,000

Job openin

Market research analysts

Mechanical engineers

Rehabilitation counselors

Public relations specialists

Educational, vocational, and school counselors

Education administrators, elementary and secondary school

Child, family, and school

social workers

Pharmacists

Clergy

Computer software engineers, systems software

Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education

Physicians and surgeons

Lawyers

Computer software engineers, applications

Special education teachers

Management analysts

Accountants and auditors

Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education

Elementary school teachers, except special education

Postsecondary teachers

Openings (thousands)

62,880

25,840

41,710

44,100

71,490

33,150

77,050

33,110

74,040

41,820

145,600+

90,290

70,900

43,450

60,340

47,000

43,950

41,780

$49,090

53,810

Median annual

earnings, 2002

69

69

75

86

99

111

114

144

156

182

191

207

218

233

255

405

458

547

960

66

Chart 4

“Pure college” occupations with the most job openings for college graduates entering the occupation for the first time, 

projected 2002-12
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

20

existing workers do not have a degree. 

Sometimes, as is often the case for preschool teachers 

and social and human service assistants, having a degree 

benefits workers beyond helping them get the job. It may 

qualify workers to take on more complex tasks in the occupation, for example, or increase workers’ opportunities 

for advancement and responsibility. 

In other occupations—such as retail salespersons and 

customer service representatives—workers from every 

education level are represented even though most qualify 

after a few weeks or months of on-the-job training. A degree is not required, and many college graduates choose 

these occupations for reasons unrelated to education or 

training, such as plentiful opportunities or flexible hours. 

Mixed-education occupations make it difficult to 

measure with certainty the demand for college graduates. 

Defining a college-level occupation is highly subjective. 

Some openings in an occupation might require a degree; 

for other openings, a degree might be useful; and for still 

other openings, a degree might not make much of a difference. 

Occupations with increasing demand: 

Trends and themes

As a whole, occupations that employ mostly college 

graduates are expected to gain new jobs faster than other 

types of occupations. Between 2002 and 2012, purecollege occupations are projected to grow 22 percent 

(continued on page 24)

0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500

Openings for people who 

do not have a bachelor's degree

Openings for college graduates, 

projected 2002-12

Medical and health services managers

Network systems and data

communications analysts

Computer and information systems managers

Sales managers

Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific products

Computer programmers

Financial managers

Chief executives

Social and human service assistants

Preschool teachers, except special education

Computer support specialists

Computer systems analysts

Police and sheriff's patrol officers

First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers

First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers

Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and scientific products

Customer service representatives

General and operations managers

Registered nurses

Retail salespersons

Openings (thousands)

58,420

85,240

75,040

55,740

60,290

73,340

126,260

23,370

19,270

39,100

62,890

42,270

38,820

29,700

42,730

26,240

68,210

48,090

$17,710

61,370

Median annual

earnings, 2002

128

154

168

182

190

195

197

202

204

216

237

313

409

486

662

741

762

1,101

2,077

119

Chart 5

“Mixed education” occupations with the most job openings for college graduates entering the occupation for the first time, 

projected 2002-12
21

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

Table 1 shows the most common areas of study for college 

graduates by academic degree. In many occupations, earning an advanced degree usually leads to higher earnings. This 

difference in earnings is commonly referred to as an earnings 

premium. But an advanced degree is worth more in some 

career fields than in others. 

Table 2 shows how much more money was earned in 

various occupations by workers who have an advanced degree 

compared with workers who have a bachelor’s degree. Data are 

reported only for occupations in which 10,000 or more workers 

held a bachelor’s degree and another 10,000 or more workers 

held a graduate or professional degree. The information in the 

table is based on 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2003 data from the 

Current Population Survey. The data from these 4 years were 

averaged to increase statistical reliability by increasing the 

number of workers surveyed.

For most occupations, having an advanced degree 

increased median earnings—and the higher the degree, the 

larger the earnings premium. On average, having a master’s 

degree increased earnings by 21 percent over a bachelor’s 

degree. Among occupations for which there were reliable data, 

almost all offered an increase in median earnings for workers 

who have a master’s degree. Physical therapists and network 

and communications systems administrators were exceptions, 

perhaps because many of the workers who have an advanced 

degree in these occupations were recent entrants and so 

earned less.

Earnings premiums were highest in occupations that 

The payoff for graduate school: Earnings premiums by degree

usually require an advanced degree. Psychologists have the 

highest earnings premium of any occupation, with master’s 

degree holders earning 78 percent and doctoral degree holders 

earning 132 percent more than bachelor’s degree holders. 

Many jobs in this field require a doctorate. 

In addition, education-related occupations paid higher 

than average earnings premiums for both master’s and doctoral degrees. 

Occupations such as management analysts, counselors, 

social workers, biological scientists, and market and survey 

researchers also paid higher than average premiums for a 

graduate degree. 

The financial benefits of advanced degrees might be 

understated in many occupations because newer workers are 

more likely to have an advanced degree, and these workers might earn less because they have less experience. The 

occupation of pharmacist, for example, averages some of the 

lowest earnings premiums for advanced degrees. In part, this is 

because new pharmacists now need a professional degree, so 

the workers who have a bachelor’s degree almost always have 

more experience than other workers do. 

Overall, occupations that provide above-average earnings 

premiums for advanced degrees are usually those in which 

most workers have at least a bachelor’s degree. Earnings 

premiums are the highest in occupations that value advanced 

degrees. If a bachelor’s degree is the most education that is 

required in an occupation, earning an advanced degree will not 

always increase median earnings significantly.

Table 1

Number of college degrees earned and most common areas of study, 2001-02

Degree Number of degrees earned, 2001-02 Most common areas of study

Bachelor’s 1,375,000

Business management and administrative services

Education

Social sciences and history

Master’s 491,000

Education

Business management and administrative services

Health professions and related sciences

Doctoral 45,000

Education

Engineering

Psychology

Biological and life sciences

Professional 82,000

Law and legal studies

Health professions and related sciences

Theological studies and religious vocations

Total 1,993,000

Source: National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

22

Employment and median earnings by occupation and educational attainment, 2000-03

Occupation

Median weekly earnings Earnings premiums (percent)

Bachelor’s 

degree

Master’s 

degree

Professional 

degree

Doctoral 

degree

Master’s 

over 

bachelor’s

Professional 

over 

bachelor’s

Doctoral 

over 

master’s

Total, all occupations $838 $1,016 $1,240 $1,280 21% 48% 26%

Accountants and auditors 868 1,078 1,053 24 21

Actors, producers, and directors 917 1,072 17

Architects, except naval 1,049 1,066 2

Athletes, coaches, umpires, and related 

workers 740 745 1

Chief executives 1,657 1,765 1,664 1,907 7 0.4 8

Clergy 702 731 865 895 4 23 22

Clinical laboratory technologists and 

technicians 766 856 12

Compliance officers, except 

agriculture, construction, health and 

safety, and transportation

960 1,090 14

Computer and information systems 

managers 1,415 1,640 16

Computer and mathematical 

occupations 1,080 1,237 1,326 1,442 15 23 17

Computer programmers 1,037 1,141 10

Computer scientists and 

systems analysts 1,099 1,201 9

Computer software engineers 1,201 1,363 1,579 13 16

Computer support specialists 847 996 18

Database administrators 1,158 1,368 18

Network and computer 

systems administrators 1,069 1,012 -5

Network systems and data 

communications analysts 1,026 1,171 14

Operations research analysts 1,058 1,140 8

Counselors, social workers, and 

other community and social service 

specialists

630 820 946 926 30 50 13

Counselors 614 819 33

Social workers 622 813 31

Designers 769 970 26

Dietitians and nutritionists 646 766 19

Editors 769 965 25

Education administrators 765 1,136 1,297 1,392 48 70 23

Elementary and middle school teachers 683 888 871 1159 30 28 31

Table 2
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Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

Employment and median earnings by occupation and educational attainment, 2000-03

Occupation

Median weekly earnings Earnings premiums (percent)

Bachelor’s 

degree

Master’s 

degree

Professional 

degree

Doctoral 

degree

Master’s 

over 

bachelor’s

Professional 

over 

bachelor’s

Doctoral 

over 

master’s

Engineering managers $1,526 $1,667 9%

Engineers 1,154 1,364 $1,050 $1,484 18 -9% 9%

Aerospace engineers 1,235 1,331 8

Chemical engineers 1,304 1,429 10

Civil engineers 1,081 1,252 16

Computer hardware engineers 1,142 1,537 35

Electrical and electronics engineers 1,221 1,440 18

Environmental engineers 976 1,239 27

Industrial engineers, including 

health and safety 1,092 1,250 14

Mechanical engineers 1,147 1,373 20

Financial managers 1,096 1,470 34

Human resources managers 1,080 1,257 16

Human resources, training, and 

labor relations specialists 813 1,035 27

Lawyers 927 1,144 1,519 1,527 23 64 33

Librarians 636 848 33

Life scientists 725 867 885 964 20 22 11

Biological scientists 672 892 908 33 2

Medical scientists 690 854 1,009 24 18

Loan counselors and officers 930 1,196 29

Management analysts 1,131 1,413 25

Marketing and sales managers 1,157 1,440 24

Medical and health services managers 1,021 1,209 1,557 1,586 18 52 31

Personal financial advisors 1,089 1,394 28

Pharmacists 1,338 1,377 1,402 1,366 3 5 -1

Physical scientists 894 1,060 1,387 19 31

Chemists and materials scientists 879 1,016 1,333 16 31

Environmental scientists and 

geoscientists 886 1,062 20

Physical therapists 920 910 -1

Physician assistants 1,085 1,143 5

Physicians and surgeons 818 1,037 1,444 1,469 27 77 42

Police and sheriff patrol officers 845 984 16

Postsecondary teachers 700 867 1,155 1,205 24 65 39

Preschool and kindergarten teachers 618 808 31

(continued)
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

24

overall, considerably faster than the 15-percent average 

growth projected for all occupations. Eighteen of the 20 

pure-college occupations in chart 4 are projected to grow 

faster than the 15-percent average for all occupations. 

Looking at job growth is important because occupations that are gaining jobs quickly are, in effect, showing rapidly increasing demand for workers. Some of the 

economic trends that are creating growth in pure-college 

and mixed-education occupations are described below by 

career field. 

Business, finance, and sales. The growing complexity of business is expected to increase the demand for 

college graduates in business and financial occupations. 

More workers will be needed to manage rising personal 

incomes, increased regulation of financial activity, and 

growing competition among businesses.

Sales occupations are expected to grow along with 

the overall economy. Although numerous workers in 

these occupations do not have a college degree, many 

others do. Having a degree is especially valued in occupations involving sales of complex scientific or technical 

products. 

Computers and engineering. The demand for new 

products and new technology is expected to continue to 

drive growth in computer and engineering occupations. 

Occupations in emerging engineering specialties, including biotechnology and environmental engineering, are 

expected to gain jobs rapidly over the projections decade. 

However, these specialties are expected to remain small 

and provide fewer openings than larger engineering specialties, such as mechanical and computer engineering. 

Counseling, social service, and psychology. Numerous social trends are projected to increase the number 

of counselors, social workers, and psychologists needed 

over the 2002-12 decade. More schools are hiring trained 

counselors. At the same time, more people are seeking 

counseling for family problems, substance abuse, and 

mental disorders. And to ease overcrowding at prisons, 

many offenders are being sent instead to rehabilitation 

facilities—where counselors, social workers, and psychologists are employed to assist them.

Education. Most opportunities in the field of education will come from the need to replace the many teachEmployment and median earnings by occupation and educational attainment, 2000-03

Occupation

Median weekly earnings Earnings premiums (percent)

Bachelor’s 

degree

Master’s 

degree

Professional 

degree

Doctoral 

degree

Master’s 

over 

bachelor’s

Professional 

over 

bachelor’s

Doctoral 

over 

master’s

Public relations specialists $815 $1,099 35%

Purchasing managers 1,205 1,458 21

Registered nurses 893 1,062 $904 19 1%

Secondary school teachers 734 914 922 $1,108 25 26 21%

Securities, commodities, and financial 

services sales agents 1,099 1,556 42

Social and community service 

managers

745 912 22

Social scientists and related workers 831 1,010 1,289 22 28

Market and survey researchers 851 1,175 38

Psychologists 520 928 1,206 78 30

Special education teachers 670 889 33

Tax examiners, collectors, preparers, 

and revenue agents 878 1,018 16

Writers and authors 768 908 18

Source: Current Population Survey. Data are not reported for those categories with fewer than 10,000 workers employed or for categories containing fewer than 

50 observations. 

(continued)

(continued from page 20)
25

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

ers and administrators who are expected to retire over the 

2002-12 decade. But additional positions are projected 

because of efforts to reduce class sizes and because of 

increasing enrollments at colleges and universities. 

Healthcare. As the population ages, the need for 

healthcare will increase, fueling the need for more healthcare practitioners. Moreover, improvements in medical 

technology will create more medical and rehabilitative 

treatments. Those treatments are prescribed and often 

administered by workers who have a college degree.

How these numbers were developed

There are many ways to measure job outlook by education, and each method has both strengths and limitations. 

This analysis focuses on future job openings because job 

openings show how many new workers will be able to 

enter an occupation. 

Deciding which job openings will be filled by college 

graduates was more complicated. Counselors and jobseekers often ask which occupations are “college level.” 

But answering that question is difficult because workers 

in most occupations come from many different educational backgrounds. This analysis used the education 

levels of current workers as an objective way to account 

for this variation. 

Like any analysis based on projections and estimates, 

however, this one has limitations to its accuracy. Understanding these limitations will help readers to better use 

the results. 

Methods used

To estimate the demand for college graduates between 

2002 and 2012, BLS analysts got specific. First, they projected the number of job openings for workers entering 

each of more than 500 occupations over the decade. Next, 

analysts estimated how many of those openings would be 

filled by college graduates. 

Measuring job openings. Job openings come from 

two sources: The need to fill newly created jobs and the 

need to replace workers who retire or leave an occupation 

permanently for other reasons. 

To estimate the number of newly created jobs, analysts projected how much each occupation would grow 

or decline between 2002 and 2012. An occupation might 

gain jobs for many reasons. Sometimes, the demand for 

a specific good or service creates the need for additional 

workers in an occupation, such as when an increased use 

of computer software creates a greater need for software 

engineers. The way a good or service is provided can also 

lead to more jobs in an occupation. Rather than relying solely on teachers and administrators to guide and 

educate students, for example, more schools are hiring 

counselors and psychologists, creating more openings for 

those workers. In the same way, a decrease in the demand 

for a good or service or a change in production methods 

can reduce the number of jobs and openings in an occupation.

The second source of job openings is replacement 

needs. To estimate how many workers will need to be 

replaced during the projections decade, BLS analysts 

studied the ages of current workers and the length of 

time that workers in each occupation usually remain. In 

occupations that require high levels of training, workers 

tend to stay longer. In other occupations, especially those 

that have shorter training periods, workers tend to leave 

or retire more quickly. 

Job openings for college graduates. After analysts 

projected the number of job openings for workers entering an occupation, they estimated how many of those 

openings would be for college graduates. Using information from 2000, 2001, and 2002 Current Population 

Survey data, analysts classified current workers’ educational attainment into one of three categories: A high 

school diploma or less, some college but no bachelor’s or 

graduate degree, or a bachelor’s or graduate degree. If at 
Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Winter 2004-05

26

least 20 percent of workers in an occupation 

belonged to a given educational category, that 

level was deemed significant. Expected openings 

were divided among each of these significant education 

categories, according to how common each category was. 

For example, the occupation of administrative 

services managers includes workers in each educational 

category: About 23 percent have a high school diploma 

or less, 37 percent have some college coursework or an 

associate degree but no bachelor’s degree, and 41 percent 

have a bachelor’s or graduate degree. Projected openings 

were divided among the education categories using those 

percentages.

For some occupations, a bachelor’s or graduate degree was the only education level common enough to be 

significant. At least 60 percent of workers in the occupation were college graduates. And fewer than 20 percent of 

workers belonged to the other two educational categories. 

In these 115 “pure college” occupations, every projected 

opening was considered to be for a college graduate.

In addition to using the three educational attainment 

categories, this article provides specific information about 

the types of degrees commonly required in some occupations. This type of information comes from the occupational analyses conducted for the Occupational Outlook 

Handbook.

Earnings data. This analysis uses earnings data from 

two surveys: The Current Population Survey and the 

Occupational Employment Statistics survey. Earnings 

data from the Current Population Survey, which includes 

information about workers’ education levels, were used 

to compare earnings by education. Earnings data from 

the Occupational Employment Statistics survey, which 

is more comprehensive, provide median earnings for an 

occupation as a whole.

The two surveys are 

different. The Current 

Population Survey is a 

household survey that 

asks workers themselves 

to give earnings, occupational, and other 

types of information; it includes 

self-employed workers. The Occupational 

Employment Statistics survey, an 

establishment survey, asks employers to 

provide earnings and occupational information 

about their workers; it does not include the selfemployed. 

Limitations of the data

To measure job openings for college graduates, BLS analysts needed to make assumptions about the future. First, 

analysts assumed that the education levels in each occupation would remain roughly the same over the 2002-12 

decade. In reality, the educational characteristics of some 

occupations change over time. Many occupations—such 

as registered nurses and police officers—have had a 

gradual increase in the number of workers who have a 

bachelor’s degree. 

Analysts also ignored education levels that were 

uncommon in an occupation; as stated previously, at 

least 20 percent of workers in an occupation had to have 

a given level of education for it to be considered significant. So, for example, even though almost 17 percent of 

engineering technicians have a college degree, none of 

that occupation’s projected openings were counted as 

openings for college graduates.

Another limitation of this study is that it focuses on 

the number of job openings projected in an occupation. 

But job openings give only a partial view of the prospects 

that workers can expect. The number of people who will 

compete for those openings is also important. For most 

occupations, however, BLS analysts do not have enough 

information to analyze the competition for jobs. 

Finally, the accuracy of this study is limited by its use 

of survey data. Surveys are always subject to some error 

because not every worker is counted and because the 

information gathered is sometimes incorrect. In addition, 

the education levels of many occupations could not be de-
27

Winter 2004-05 • Occupational Outlook Quarterly

termined with statistical accuracy because the number of 

workers surveyed was too small. In those cases, analysts 

substituted the education levels of similar occupations or 

groups of occupations that had larger numbers of workers. 

Even with its assumptions and limitations, however, 

there is evidence that estimating future job openings using the analysis described here produces accurate results. 

When existing jobs are separated into educational categories in such a way, the results closely match current 

numbers. 

For more information

This article shows expected job openings in only a few of 

the occupations available to workers who have a college 

degree. To compare the expected job openings in every 

occupation studied, see the 2004-05 Occupational Projections and Training Data bulletin, which also explains 

in detail the methods used in this analysis. The bulletin 

is available online at www.bls.gov/emp/optd/home.htm

and is available for sale by calling the Superintendent of 

Documents toll-free at 1 (866) 572-1800.

To learn more about the occupations described in this 

article and in the bulletin, see the 2004-05 Occupational 

Outlook Handbook. The Handbook describes the job outlook, education and training requirements, and job duties 

of nearly 270 occupations and is available in many libraries and career centers and online at www.bls.gov/oco.

BLS is not the only organization that gathers data on 

the demand and earnings for college graduates. Associations, both professional ones for specific occupations and 

general ones like the National Association of Colleges 

and Employers, often do surveys on employers’ hiring 

needs, workers’ education levels, and workers’ earnings. 

Find contact information for these associations in the Occupational Outlook Handbook or at your local library.

If you are considering college, the U.S. Department of Education provides additional information and 

assistance, including information about financial aid. 

Most college students receive some form of financial aid 

through programs administered by the Department of Education. The Department provides applications for grants 

and loans, lists resources for finding scholarships, and 

maintains a searchable database of colleges and universities by location, available majors, enrollment, and other 

characteristics. Call the financial aid hotline toll-free at 1 

(800) 4FED-AID (433-3243); write the Federal Student 

Aid Information Center, P.O. Box 84, Washington, DC 

20044-0084; or visit online at www.studentaid.ed.gov.

Projections and education statistics are a few of the 

factors to consider when deciding on a career. Other 

considerations, including working conditions, personal 

interests and strengths, and local labor market conditions, are also important. Career centers and labor market 

information offices can help you explore these matters. 

Find your local one-stop career center and labor market 

information office by visiting America’s Service Locator 

online at www.servicelocator.org or by calling the U.S. 

Department of Labor’s toll-free career hotline, 1 (877) 

US2-JOBS (872-5627).

A job search is about more than job outlook. Choosing an occupation that is projected to have many opportunities can ease your way into employment—but in the 

end, it takes only one job opening to begin finding career 

satisfaction.