Using Complex Systems Practice To 

Assess the Youth Bulge in the Sahel

Amber Cleland, Cody Herr, Jason Roe, Sean Steigerwalt, 

Zachary Wales (The authors are 2021 NIU BSI graduates.)

Assessing modern intelligence problems—such as the strain an 

emerging youth bulge will put on Africa’s already fragile Sahel—

requires analytic methods that probe beyond the obvious to uncover 

the underlying forces and patterns at work in a complex system. This 

Research Short demonstrates how one such method, Complex Systems 

Practice, provides the IC with an effective tool for analyzing systems 

where many interdependent and adaptive components interact to 

create “emergence,” or a structure that is more than just its elements. 

Using this approach to examine the potential impact of the growing 

youth bulge in Africa’s Sahel reveals that educating women would have 

the greatest potential to create positive change in the region. 

RESEARCH SHORT

September 14, 2022

What this is: 

This report is the product 

of academic research. As the 

IC’s university, NIU is uniquely 

positioned to use academic 

approaches to research—and 

report on—subjects of interest 

to the community.

What this is not: 

This is not finished intelligence. 

The opinions expressed in this 

report are solely the author’s 

and not those of the National 

Intelligence University or 

any other U.S. Government 

agency.

IMAGE FROM SHUTTERSTOCK

OPPORTUNITIES An exploration of solutions 

to challenges or problems 
2

Complex Problems Require New Theoretical Lenses

The looming youth bulge in the Sahel, like most of the problems the IC assesses, requires 

intelligence analysts to understand the inner workings of a complex system. When analyzing 

complex issues, analysts often rely on a variety of established methods and structured analytic 

techniques to mitigate cognitive biases, unhelpful mental models, and intuitive errors.1 Linear 

techniques that help identify and analyze components of a complex system are less helpful for 

understanding the dynamics and indirect relationships operating within the system as a whole. 

New transformative analytic approaches that foster creativity, reward dissenting views, and 

expand cognitive diversity would provide a holistic look at the inner workings of complex systems. 

Complex Systems Practice (CSP) is an adaptable and comprehensive approach to analyzing 

nonlinear, complex problems that is gaining popularity among intelligence analysts and 

policymakers because it can capture nuanced, indirect, and cascading cause and effect

relationships among variables in a system.2 Systems theory is not a departure from time-tested 

analytic techniques. Instead, it uses a series of sequential analytic methods to build a visual 

model that analysts further refine by sharing—or socializing—it with colleagues, experts, and 

interested parties. Rather than a methodology, it is a theory of how variables within a complex 

system interact in dynamic and adaptive feedback loops to create “emergence”—a new 

behavior that cannot be defined as the sum of the behaviors of the system’s constituent parts.3

CSP creates a Complex Systems Map that identifies underlying patterns that allow analysts to 

better understand the system, adapt to its continuous evolution, and engage it effectively.4 CSP 

does not make challenges less complex, but it provides a way to embrace that complexity. 

Applying CSP to the Sahel

The Sahel region of Africa—the 5,000-kilometer belt of land below the Sahara Desert 

stretching from the Atlantic coast to the Red Sea—is projected to account for nearly onequarter of the world’s population growth through 2050.

5 Cultural traditions that value large 

families, as well as fragile healthcare and education systems that do not support family 

planning or female empowerment, will drive a youth bulge likely to compound existing 

problems of weak regional governance and environmental degradation due to climate change. 

A projected 3-5°C increase in temperature by 2050 will worsen food and water insecurity 

throughout the largely agricultural region.6 According to the UN, the youth bulge is likely to 

exceed these fragile states’ ability to educate, employ, or provide adequate medical care for 

their populations,7 degrading the rule of law and overall stability.8 Spillover from Sahelian 

instability could increase migration and terrorism and threaten U.S. national security.

This Research Short will demonstrate CSP’s ability to provide more sophisticated insight into 

the interaction of the entrenched cultural, healthcare, and education patterns that are driving 

the Sahel’s youth bulge. Much of the available literature on the growing youth bulge in the 

Sahel tends to focus on singular events and patterns of behavior. Analyzing each pattern in 

isolation paints a distorted picture, but arraying them in a complex systems map of causal 
3

feedback loops allows convergence points to emerge that reveal the deeper patterns influencing 

the entire complex system.9 CSP shows that most of the overlapping inflection points involve 

traditional cultural views on gender roles, corroborating the conclusion of a body of traditional 

social science research that the level of female education is the structure most central to the 

Sahel’s youth bulge. This conclusion suggests that international support to improve female 

education could propel the Sahel toward a healthier future—one marked by a youth dividend

that boosts economic development rather than increasing regional instability and conflict.

Developing a Guiding Star and Near Star

The first step in CSP is to identify framing devices to serve as navigational tools as the system 

adapts to exogenous impacts over time. The first framing device is to envision the desired 

future system, or Guiding Star,

10 which should reflect a healthier system goal rather than a 

specific end state. Our Guiding Star was to increase human security in the Sahel by promoting 

stability. The second framing device, or Near Star, is a foreseeable (5-10 year) and achievable 

outcome that makes significant progress toward the Guiding Star.

11 This Near Star is likely to 

be adjusted as the CSP process reveals new insights into the ever-changing system.12 For this 

project, the initial Near Star was: Children of the Sahel have access to education that enables 

their integration as productive members of their respective societies.

Identifying a Framing Question and Collecting and Categorizing Data

The second CSP step is to identify a compelling framing question that helps maintain a focused 

effort to understand the system being analyzed and guides the building of a Complex Systems 

Map.13 Our framing question was: What factors influence the youth bulge in the Sahel and what 

opportunities exist to encourage the complex system toward a healthier future state?

Once this question was established, we identified themes and explored the upstream causes—

things that lead to the theme—and the downstream effects—those the theme causes to happen. 

Themes were identified using Structural, Attitudinal, and Transactional Analysis (SAT)

*

—a 

structured method of looking at the system holistically. 14 Several structured analytic 

techniques—Structured Brainstorming, Radial Venn Analysis, and Chronologies and 

Timelines Analysis (See Appendix A)—were used to assess demographic data from 

governments and international aid entities, statistical projections of demographic shifts and the 

impact of climate change, and discussion with area experts to identify underlying causal 

conditions (inputs) contributing to the Sahel’s youth bulge. The brainstorming and other 

analytic techniques assisted in decomposing and visualizing the underlying conditions 

responsible for the youth bulge. Three inputs emerged: cultural norms, access to healthcare 

resources and information, and education. The process also revealed manifestations (outputs) 

of the youth bulge on the fragile Sahel: conflict, displacement, and migration, and, on a more 

positive note, potential workforce opportunities. 

* In this instance, SAT (structural, attitudinal, transactional) Analysis refers to a specific step in Systems 

Practice as taught by Acumen Academy and not structured analytic techniques.
4

Categorizing these causes and effects as structural, attitudinal, or transactional helps capture 

the physical and social environment in which people in the Sahel live—both their beliefs, 

values, and behavior and the interactions among key people. 15 This categorization of 

underlying conditions/inputs and manifestations/outputs is an essential prerequisite for the next 

step in our analytic process: creating a Complex Systems Map that addresses the emergence 

and interdependency inherent in the system.

Discovering the Deep Structure and Building a Systems Map

The third step of the CSP processes is forming a Complex Systems Map that links the Near Star 

(Children of the Sahel have access to education that enables integration as productive members of 

their respective societies.) to the entrenched patterns that drive the interactions among education, 

healthcare, and tradition/culture in the Sahel. These linkages are depicted as a series of 

interconnected, dynamic feedback loops. (See Appendix B to review the feedback loops in depth.) 

The map overlays the underlying conditions and feedback loops with chronological modeling 

of population and climate maturation to identify convergence points—those areas where a 

comparatively modest effort or investment could significantly impact the system. These 

convergence points are located by identifying areas where “energy seeking change is disrupting 

the status quo or trying to reorganize and cause new patterns to emerge” in contrast to places 

Figure 1. Convergence Points and Deep Structure
5

where system behavior is too entrenched to change.16 For the Sahel, these points spanned the 

realms of governance, stability, education, healthcare, and economic opportunity.

These leverage points are in the system’s deep structure, which is the convergence point of 

various loops17 and serves as the anchor point for the map. (See Figure 1) For this study, the 

deep structure revealed the centrality of female education to the complex system. Stepping 

back to review all the feedback loops around a theme will highlight the most significant and 

repeating elements (factors, causal relationships, and entire loops) and relationships within the 

feedback loops, giving analysts a good sense of the node of the system. 

This process of compiling feedback loops, spotting overlaps, and identifying relationships 

among loops creates a Complex Systems Map—the first holistic and cohesive visualization of 

the system.18 (See Figure 2) The map highlights the interconnectedness and interdependencies 

among the driving factors or variables within a system. It is a living document that practitioners 

will update as they receive feedback and engage with the system over time. 

Crafting the Narrative and Socializing the Systems Map

The Complex Systems Map acts as a visual table of contents for a holistic and dynamic story 

of the context or narration.19 After creating a map, a narrative is generated to enable those who 

Figure 2. Complex Systems Map: Youth Bulge in the Sahel

Source (population and climate data): NIC, Global Trends 2040, March 2021, 19, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/ documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf; NASA, 

Study Confirms Climate Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-futurewarmingprojections-right/.)
6

have not been part of the mapping process to understand the system’s storyline. By telling this 

narrative to others, analysts invite more participation, identify gaps in thinking, gain deeper 

insight into the system, and evolve their understanding as the system changes. This iterative 

process refines the map. Sharing the narrative with IC members, security experts, social 

scientists, analytic methodologists, etc. socializes the map. These audiences broaden the 

analysts’ perspective on contributing factors and drivers, promote the building of a shared 

understanding of the complex issue, and highlight the key drivers and primary factors to force 

practitioners to look objectively at the entire system.20

Benefits of Complex Systems Practice

Complex Systems Practice applies a unique combination of analytic methods, including 

structured techniques and Systems Practice, † to complex intelligence issues, even if the 

intelligence question is not well defined. Rather than merely being a starting point for linear 

analysis, CSP shows that structured analytic techniques have demonstrable value when applied 

to individual variables within the complex system. They guide research, record the analytic 

process, and build the structure for a Complex Systems Map. CSP further defines the issue by 

objectively accounting for the dynamic relationships and emergent properties within the system. 

However, building the contextual framework for viewing the intelligence issues is only the 

start of an iterative process that becomes more robust as new information impacts the system. 

Iteration and socialization of the Complex Systems Map promote understanding of the 

system’s adaptive tendencies and exogenous factors’ interdependencies. Further analysis is 

required to understand the relationships among the factors leading to the complexity of the 

system; CSP takes that next step into exploring the relative intricate interactions among the key 

drivers that affect the intelligence issue. 

Lessons for the Sahel

CSP identified several leverage points that could guide the Sahel to a 

healthier future state as it undergoes large demographic change. Local and 

national forces that create hubs of systemic change that interact with 

leverage points within the complex system should influence positive 

systemic change. These points can be grouped into categories: economic, 

education, governance, healthcare, and security. Our results support the 

need for a multifaceted solution affecting each of the categories of leverage 

because improving the prospects for youth in the Sahel can create ripple 

effects in human security that will enhance global security. 

• The youth bulge is a complex system that possesses emergent properties that needs a 

Complex Systems Practice approach to properly analyze. 

† An analytic method that focuses on visualizing analytic problems involving multiple variables that interact 

to create emergence.

Leverage point categories are 

where interested parties may 

enjoy asymmetrical benefits in 

global security for moderate 

investments of time, effort, 

and/or money. Such investments 

will affect fundamental 

dynamics, causing ripple 

effects that eventually create 

a healthier system. 
7

• The youth bulge alone is not a security concern; if provided adequate economic 

opportunities, a large youth cohort stimulates national and regional economies. 

• Sahelian female education is an anchor point and unifying theme around which the 

emergence created by the feedback loops is most easily visible. 

• Examining the youth bulge through the prism of Sahelian female education reveals 

leverage points with the most potential to effect change with modest effort.

Relevance to the Intelligence Community

Anticipatory intelligence alerts policymakers to global trends before they become dangerous 

and irreversible, reducing strategic surprise and uncertainty when national interests are at stake. 

Rapid Sahelian population growth is a global security concern because the region is largely 

“undergoverned” and lacks education and employment opportunities for its youth.21 This study 

seeks to reveal specific challenges in the Sahel that exponential population growth may worsen 

and identify ways to encourage the complex system toward a healthier future.

Amber Cleland is a U.S. Air Force Master Sergeant, who has served for 17 years as an imagery analyst. 

She currently provides critical intelligence support to the 1 Special Operations Wing commander, staff, 

and aircrew at Hurlburt Field, Florida. She earned her BS in strategic intelligence from NIU in 2021.

Cody Herr is an intelligence officer assigned to U.S. Special Operations Command (USSOCOM) and a

graduate student at NIU, where his research focuses on the crossroads of ancient warrior traditions

and modern technology. His writing has appeared in the American Intelligence Journal and Special

Warfare Magazine.

Jason Roe is a U.S. Navy information systems technician and graduate student at the University of 

Missouri’s Harry S Truman School of Public Affairs. He has a BS in strategic intelligence from NIU and 

a certification in counterterrorism studies from National American University’s Henley-Putnam School 

of Strategic Security.

Sean Steigerwalt is a U.S. Air Force intelligence analyst and graduate student at Johns Hopkins 

University. He earned a BS in strategic intelligence from NIU and currently is the NCOIC of the 11th

Special Operations Intelligence Squadron’s Training Department. 

Zachary Wales is a U.S. Marine Corps intelligence analyst specializing in signals intelligence. He 

graduated from NIU in 2021 with a BS in intelligence and currently is an instructor at Goodfellow Air 

Force Base focusing on the Korean Peninsula. 

This research was performed under the direction of Dr. James Pugel, Associate Dean, College of 

Strategic Intelligence, NIU.

If you have comments, questions, or a suggestion for a Research Short topic or article, please contact 

the NIU Office of Research at NIU_OOR@dodiis.mil.
8

Appendix A

Using structured analytic techniques, such as Structured Brainstorming, Radial Venn Analysis, 

and Chronologies and Timelines Analysis, can deepen understanding of how each constituent 

part of a system relates to the whole, aiding in developing a Complex Systems Map. Creating 

visual aids can help analysts organize data sets, which increases productivity, provides clarity 

of analysis, and ensures a more accurate assessment 

of the complex intelligence problem.

Structured Brainstorming (SB) is an exploration 

technique used to compile extensive lists of forces, 

factors, events, and constituents’ roles that affect 

the complex system—a useful starting point for 

identifying the system’s key variables. (See Figure 

A-1) Using SB broadens the scope of information 

and possibilities and helps counter satisficing—a 

tendency to look only for information that fits a 

preferred answer.22 Conducting SB and maintaining 

an archive of thoughts and notes that can be 

continually updated as the system changes can 

mitigate personal bias and “groupthink.”23 

Radial Venn Analysis is a simple method to promote idea generation and identify critical 

causal factors and underlying interdependencies within a complex system. It also may identify 

underlying assumptions in the analytic methodology by revealing relationships among 

Figure A-1. Structured Brainstorming (Virtual)

Figure A-2. Radial Venn Analysis
9

interdependent factors that underpin a proposed theoretical framework. Analysts first 

determine the central problem and center it in a basic Radial Venn diagram, which can be 

created in Microsoft PowerPoint SmartArt. Analysts then arrange factors driving or 

contributing to the problem along the perimeter to indicate their relation to the central problem, 

which creates a visual representation of factors within a complex system. (See Figure A-2) 

Chronologies and Timelines (C&T) Analysis graphically overlays fixed timeline events with 

the key forces, factors, and drivers of a complex system to place the events in historical and 

chronological context. C&T breaks a problem or issue into its component parts so each can be 

considered separately and then captures all the parts in an organized visual representation to aid 

understanding of how they interrelate.24 C&T identifies the intersection of geographic, behavioral, 

and temporal variables, and the analysis discerns correlation from causation among linked events 

to allow analysts to view a data set from a more strategic vantage point.25 It can help mitigate 

intuitive traps, such as relying on first impressions or ignoring inconsistent evidence or the absence 

of information, 26 and encourage analysts to challenge existing mental frameworks and 

continuously update analytic models. This technique can also highlight critical information to 

drive collection. It is an effective way to order information when processing daily message traffic, 

often taking the form of a spreadsheet orsequential graph. Using C&T, analysts gather all relevant 

information; place the data along a line that depicts the convergence or divergence of actors, 

organizations, or streams of information; and create a summary chart detailing key events, 

identifying gaps, and weighing the implications of an absence of evidence.27 (See Figure A-3) 

Figure A-3. Chronologies and Timelines

Source: Data: NIC, Global Trends 2040, March 2021, 19, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/ documents/assessments/GlobalTrends_2040.pdf; NASA, Study Confirms Climate 

Models are Getting Future Warming Projections Right, https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2943/study-confirms-climate-models-are-getting-futurewarming-projections-right/.)
10

Appendix B

The individual feedback loops for the three identified driving factors form the building blocks 

of the Complex Systems Map. 

Figure B-1
11
12

Endnotes

1 Richards J. Heuer and Randolph H. Pherson, Jr., Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed. 

(Washington: CQ Press, 2015), 3-15.

2 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice (The Omidyar Group), https://docs.kumu.io/content/Workbook-012617.pdf.

3 Thomas Pike, “Analysis and Artificial Intelligence in Integrated Campaigning 2019,” Invited Perspective Series: 

Strategic Multilayer Assessment (SMA), 2020, https://nsiteam.com/ social/wpcontent/uploads/2020/02/Pike-IPFinal-17Jan20-v2R.pdf.

4 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 30.

5 Laura Saavedra, “The Demographic Explosion in the Sahel Region: Its Governance's New Challenge,” Instituto 

Espanol de Estudios Estrategicos (June 27, 2019), 

http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/docs_opinion/2019/DIEEEO61_2019LAUTOR_demografia_ENG.pdf. 

6 Marcus Arcanjo, “Risk and Resilience: Climate Change and Instability in the Sahel,” A Climate Institute 

Publication, October 2019, http://climate.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/10/Risk-and-Resilience-Climate-Changeand-Instability-in-the-Sahel.pdf.

7 United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Refugee Data Finder, Geneva, Switzerland, 2020, 

https://www.unhcr.org/refugee-statistics/.

8 Fragile States Index, “Measuring Fragility: Risk and Vulnerability in 178 Countries,” Fragilestatesindex.org, 2020, 

https://fragilestatesindex.org/.

9 Robert Ricigliano and Diana Chiga, Systems Thinking in Conflict Assessment: Concepts and Applications, 

USAID, 2011, https://www.cdacollaborative.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Systems-thinking-in-conflictassessment.pdf, 3.

10 Acumen Academy, “Systems Practice Course,” (workshop, Acumen Academy online, March 16, 2021), 

https://acumenacademy.org.; see also The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice.

11 Acumen Academy, “Systems Practice Course.” 

12 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 28-29.

13 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 20.

14 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 32.

15 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 34.

16 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice Workbook, 36-37.

17 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice Workbook, 40.

18 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 44.

19 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 50.

20 The Omidyar Group, Systems Practice, 54.

21 Office of the Director of National Intelligence, Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, 

April 9, 2021, https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/ATA-2021-Unclassified-Report.pdf.

22 Herbert Simon, “Rational Choice and the Structure of the Environment,” Psychological Review 63, no. 2 (1956): 

129–38, https://pages.ucsd.edu/~mckenzie/Simon1956PsychReview.pdf.

23 Susan Cain, “The Rise of the New Groupthink,” New York Times, January 13, 2012, https://www.nytimes.com/

2012/01/15/opinion/sunday/the-rise-of-the-newgroupthink. 

24 Heuer and Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques, 67.

25 Sarah M. Beebe and Randolph H. Pherson, Cases in Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed. (Los Angeles: Sage/CQ Press, 

2015), 35.

26 Heuer and Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques, 138.

27 Heuer and Pherson, Structured Analytic Techniques, 140.