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CHAPTER 60

PREDICTIVE SERVICES

PREDICTIVE SERVICES OVERVIEW

Predictive Services is a decision support unit for federal, state and local land management agencies 

for operational management of and strategic planning for wildland fire management resources. 

Predictive Services accomplishes this through analysis of weather and climate, fuels, fire activity 

and behavior.

Intelligence gathering is a fundamental component of the national coordination system for federal, 

state and local land agencies. Intelligence coordination is accomplished through compiling reports 

from all levels of the firefighting organization as well as communicating with individual GACCs 

and local jurisdictions concerning their historic, current, and expected fire occurrence.

The products and services from both Predictive Services and the Intelligence section provide 

support for the proactive management of wildland fire with an eye toward safety, cost containment, 

efficiency and ecosystem health.

Wildland Fire Weather Forecasts

Wildland Fire Weather Forecasts are the responsibility of the National Weather Service.

Local dispatch centers will have protocols in place for monitoring, requesting, and disseminating 

fire weather forecasts, spot weather forecasts, fire weather watches, red flag warnings and other 

severe weather events (e.g., severe storm warnings, flash flood warnings, tornado warnings) to 

firefighters, incident commanders, and field-going personnel.

PREDICTIVE SERVICES PRODUCTS

7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook

The National 7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook is a composite of outlooks produced by 

each of the Geographic Area Predictive Services’. The 7-Day provides a week-long projection of 

fuel dryness, weather and fire potential. The 7-Day depicts a nationwide view of the significant 

fire potential for the next seven days with links to the individual Geographic Area 7-Day Outlooks. 

The system is database-driven and is updated periodically as each Geographic Area Predictive 

Services posts its outlook. Each Geographic Area Predictive Services will determine whether to 

routinely produce a morning or afternoon product. Issuance times for each Area’s outlook can be 

found in their respective Geographic Area Mobilization Guide and/or National Weather Service/

Predictive Services Annual Operating Plan. Geographic Areas are required to provide 7-Day

Outlooks daily, except when the Geographic Area Predictive Services is not staffed. Forecasts will 

include the forecaster’s name or other agreed upon identifier to facilitate coordination.

The National 7-Day Outlook, as well as individual Geographic Area 7-Day Outlooks can be 

found at:

https://fsapps.nwcg.gov/psp/npsg/forecast#/outlooks?state=map. 
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National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook

The National Significant Wildland Fire Potential Outlook is prepared and distributed by NICC 

Predictive Services on the first day of each month. It is a composite of outlooks prepared by the 

individual Geographic Areas Predictive Services and National Discussions prepared by NICC 

Predictive Services. It provides fire managers with the information needed to make long-range 

decisions concerning resource staffing and allocation. The Outlook identifies areas where 

significant wildland fire activity is expected to be above or below normal levels.

The Outlook covers a four-month period, divided into four one-month sections. Maps for each 

period display areas of below normal, normal, and above normal significant wildland fire potential. 

A brief synopsis of the current and predicted national and GACC situation is included in the report. 

The Outlook begins with an executive summary which provides a brief synopsis of the past 

month’s weather and a national overview of each of the outlook periods. The Past Weather and 

Drought section summarizes the weather of the past month and the evolution of any drought 

conditions to illustrate how fuels and fire conditions reached the current state. The Weather and 

Climate Outlooks section summarizes the broad climate patterns that will affect temperature and 

precipitation for the next four months. The Geographic Area Forecasts section provides brief but 

more specific weather, fuels and fire potential information for each of the Geographic Areas.

GACC monthly outlooks are mandatory. They provide greater detail than the national outlook 

issued by NICC. GACC monthly outlooks will adhere to the following protocols:

• GACC and NICC outlooks must be geospatially equivalent.

• GACC websites are required to link to the national outlook.

• GACCs are required to provide draft forecast maps, as well as narrative highlights for the 

outlook period to NICC no later than five business days before the end of each month.

• GACC monthly outlooks will be issued and posted to the web on the first business day of 

each month.

• Maps will show areas where above normal, normal and below normal significant fire 

potential are expected.

• A discussion of fuel conditions, climate outlooks and other pertinent information will be 

included in the outlooks.

Fuel and Fire Behavior Advisories

Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisories are alerts issued as needed to address an exceptional or extreme 

circumstance that could threaten firefighter safety. Conditions that could be reasonably expected 

normally do not warrant a Fuels and Fire Behavior Advisory. Advisories will focus on fuel 

conditions and fire behavior that have long-term impacts, not atmospheric conditions that can 

change significantly over short periods of time and found in other products.

Advisories will highlight conditions that are currently ongoing and give specific examples that 

have been experienced in the field. Advisories should be tailored so that firefighters at all 

experience levels can recognize the situation and act accordingly. Advisories should be 

coordinated with neighboring administrative units to ensure that all areas with similar conditions 

are being addressed. All Advisories that extend beyond a single local administrative unit or will 

be posted on the National Advisory Map must be coordinated with the NICC and Geographic Area 

Coordination Center Predictive Services.
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Each Advisory must include a map of the affected area. Only one Advisory may be active at any 

time over any area. If multiple Advisory conditions are present incorporate them into one 

Advisory. Advisories will remain in effect for 14 days from issuance. If the Advisory conditions 

continue beyond the 14 days a new Advisory will need to be issued to update conditions and 

circumstances with more timely information. Advisory templates can be found at:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/fuels-fire-danger

Incident Status Summary (ICS-209)

The Incident Status Summary (ICS-209) conforms to National Incident Management System 

(NIMS) policy. The ICS-209 is used to report large wildland fires and other significant events on 

lands under federal protection/ownership and is submitted to the GACC. Lands administered by 

states and other federal cooperators may also utilize this report.

The ICS-209 is submitted by the agency that has protection responsibility for the incident, 

regardless of who administers the land. If the protection agency is non-federal and chooses not to 

meet federal reporting standards, then the federal agency which has administrative jurisdiction will 

submit the ICS-209. Geographic Area Intelligence Coordination staff will ensure that their local 

dispatch centers submit complete and accurate ICS-209 reports for any wildland fire meeting the 

requirements specified in the When to Report Wildland Fire Incidents with an ICS-209 flowchart 

shown in this chapter below and available at:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/intelligence

Required Reporting of Wildland Fires

The NICC classifies large wildland fires as 100 acres or larger in timber and slash fuel models;

and 300 acres or larger in grass or brush fuel models; or when a Complex, Type 1, or Type 2 

Incident Management Team is assigned.

Wildland fires managed for complete perimeter control (full suppression) will submit an ICS-209 

daily when that wildland fire meets large fire criteria by 0200 Mountain Time to report the previous 

day’s activity until the incident is contained. Refer to GACC Mobilization Guides or agency policy 

for reporting requirements once containment is achieved.

Wildland fires managed under a Monitor, Confine, or Point Zone Protection management strategy 

will submit an ICS-209 following the guidelines outlined below in the When to Report Wildland 

Fire Incidents with an ICS-209. For incidents that require daily reporting, ICS-209s should be 

submitted daily by 0200 Mountain Time to report the previous day’s activity. For incidents that 

require weekly reporting, ICS-209s should be submitted weekly by Friday at 0200 Mountain Time.
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Non-Fire Incidents

An ICS-209 will be submitted for other events in which a significant commitment of wildland fire 

resources has occurred, or when a Complex, Type 1, or Type 2 Incident Management Team has 

been assigned.

Wildland fires within a complex should be aggregated and included in one ICS-209. A complex is 

two or more individual wildland fires located in the same general proximity, which are assigned 

to a single Incident Commander or Unified Command. Instructions on how to create a complex 

can be found at:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/intelligence
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Interagency Situation Report

GACC Intelligence staff will ensure that all dispatch centers within their geographic area submit 

Situation Reports through the SIT/209 Application at different frequencies throughout the year. 

The reporting period for this report is 0001 to 2400. At National Preparedness Level 2 the NICC 

Intelligence Coordination staff will retrieve situation reports from the SIT/209 Application by 

0200 Mountain Time. Fires and acres shall be reported by protection responsibility. Reporting is 

required for all prescribed fire activity on the same schedule as wildland fires.

Incident Management Situation Report

The National Incident Management Situation Report (IMSR) is issued at different frequencies 

throughout the year due based on incident activity. During periods of light activity, the IMSR shall 

be issued weekly on Fridays. As activity increases, the IMSR shall be issued daily Monday through 

Friday. The IMSR shall be issued daily at National Preparedness Level 3 and above, or when 

incident activity and resource mobilization determine the need for a daily IMSR.

The IMSR is prepared by the NICC Intelligence Program staff from information and data derived 

from the SIT/209 Application. What is included in the IMSR can be found at:

https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/incident-information/imsr

Large full suppression wildland fires are typically reported in the IMSR until:

• The incident is contained.

• The incident has less than 100 personnel assigned.

• The incident is no longer demonstrating significant activity.

• The incident fails to submit an ICS-209 three (3) days in a row.

Wildland fires managed under a Monitor, Confine, or Point Zone strategy will initially be reported 

on the IMSR when the event exceeds 100 acres in timber and slash fuel models, 300 acres in grass 

or brush fuel models, or a Complex, Type 1, or Type 2 Incident Management Team is assigned. 

Large, long-duration fires will be reported in the IMSR until activity diminishes, and thereafter 

when significant activity occurs (i.e., acreage increase of 1,000 acres or more since last reported, 

significant resource commitment, a significant event occurs, etc.).

The Active Incident Resource Summary is updated daily in the IMSR. It includes the total count 

of fires and acres with resources assigned that have been reported in the SIT-209 program within 

the last seven days.