Version	1	/	Date	of	Issue:	10.29.15	/	Issuing	Authority:	Forensic	Science	Standards	Board	(FSSB)

OSAC	Research	Needs Assessment Form

Title	of	research	need:

Keywords:

Submitting subcommittee(s): Date	Approved:

(If	SAC	review	identifies	additional	subcommittees,	add	them	to	the	box	above.)

Background	information:

1.	 Description	of	research	need:

2.	 Key	bibliographic	references	relating	to	this	research	need:

Expanded	research	on	different	statistical	models	that	can	be	used	in	association	with	a	friction	

ridge comparison.		(1)	Approaches	for	quantification	of	evidence	that	are	fit	for	purpose.		(2)	

Evaluation	of	candidate	model	approaches	in	terms	of	their	theoretical	validity,	potential	for	

misuse	or	misinterpretation,	and	generality	of	application.		(3)	Identification	of	types	of	databases	

that	will	be	needed	to	support	proposed	approaches.		(4)	How	to	best	communicate	the	results	to	

the	courts.

Please	see	Appendix	“A”	for	a	normative	bibliography	related	to	this	research	topic.

For	a	comprehensive	and	informative	bibliography	related	to	friction	ridge	examination	please	see	

Appendix	“B”:			The	2011	SWGFAST	response	to	the	Research,	Development,	Testing	&	Evaluation	

Inter-Agency	Working	Group	of	the	National	Science	and	Technology	Council,	Committee	on	

Science,	Subcommittee	on	Forensic	Science.		

Friction	Ridge	Statistical	Modeling

Statistics,	Friction	Ridge,	Statistical Models,	Likelihood	Ratios,	Stats

Friction	Ridge
Version	1	/	Date	of	Issue:	10.29.15	/	Issuing	Authority:	Forensic	Science	Standards	Board	(FSSB)

3a.		In	what	ways	would	the	research	results	improve	current	laboratory	capabilities?

3b.		In	what	ways	would	the	research	results	improve	understanding	of	the	scientific	basis	for	the	

subcommittee(s)?

3c.		In	what	ways	would	the	research	results	improve	services	to	the	criminal	justice	system?

4.		Status assessment	(I,	II,	III,	or	IV):		

This	research	need	has	been	identified	by	one	or	more	subcommittees	of	OSAC	and	is	being	provided	as	an	

informational	resource	to	the	community.

Major gap	

in	current	

knowledge

Minor gap	

in	current	

knowledge

No	or	limited

current	research	

is	being	

conducted

I III

Existing current	

research	is	being	

conducted

II IV

Latent	prints	that	are	currently	not	utilized	due	to	lack	of	sufficiency	will	now	provide	some	value,	

even	if limited,	in	bench	work.		This	type	of	technique	will	improve	examiner	awareness	of	the	

quantitative	value	of	the	evidence	they	are	analyzing,	as	well	as increasing	efficiency	by	focusing	

examiner	resources	on the appropriate	evidence.		These	types	of	models	will	also	assist	the	

examiner	by	supporting	and	adding	weight	to	current	examination	techniques	and	conclusions.

Statistical	modeling	has	made	significant	progress	in	the	last	ten	or	so	years	by	improving	our	

understanding	of	overall	match	probabilities.		However,	there	are still	questions	regarding the	

reliability	of	these	models in	specific	cases.		Without	general	acceptance,	the	Friction	Ridge	

Subcommittee	will	have	difficulty	establishing	standards	on	the	use	of	statistics	during friction	

ridge	examination.

Improved	statistical	modeling	will	increase	confidence	that	the criminal	justice	system	has	in	

fingerprint	evidence.		New	models	will	improve	the	overall	value	of	friction	ridge evidence	by	

making	it	more	comprehensible	to	the	judicial	system.

II
Version	1	/	Date	of	Issue:	10.29.15	/	Issuing	Authority:	Forensic	Science	Standards	Board	(FSSB)

// Approval	date:

(Approval	is	by	majority	vote	of	subcommittee.		Once	approved,	forward	to	SAC.)

1.		Does	the	SAC	agree	with	the	research	need?				Yes					 ⃝	

2.		Does	the	SAC	agree	with	the	status assessment?				Yes								⃝	⃝

If	no,	what	is	the	status assessment	of	the	SAC:

Approval	date:

(Approval	is	by	majority	vote	of	SAC.		Once	approved,	forward	to	NIST	for	posting.)

Subcommittee 01/29/2016

SA

C

17-Mar-2016
Version	1	/	Date	of	Issue:	10.29.15	/	Issuing	Authority:	Forensic	Science	Standards	Board	(FSSB)

APPENDIX	“A”

Abraham,	Joshua,	Christophe	Champod,	Chris	Lennard,	and	Claude	Roux.	"Modern	Statistical	Models	for	

Forensic	Fingerprint	Examinations:	A	Critical	Review."	Forensic	Science	International	232,	no.	1-3	

(2013):	131-50.

Neumann,	C.,	Evett,	I.	W.,	and	Skerrett, J.,	"Quantifying	the	Weight	of	Evidence	from	a	Forensic	Fingerprint	

Comparison:	A	New	Paradigm",		Journal	of	the	Royal	Statistical	Society,		vol.	175	

(Part	2),	pp.	1-26,	2012.

Neumann,	Cédric.	"Statistics	and	Probabilities	as	a	Means	to	Support	Fingerprint	Examination."	In	Lee	

and	Gaensslen's	Advances	in	Fingerprint	Technology,	edited	by	Robert	S.	Ramotowski,	407-52.	Boca	

Raton:	CRC	Press,	2012.

Neumann,	Cedric,	Christophe	Champod,	Mina	Yoo,	Thibault	Genessay,	and	Glenn	Langenburg.	

"Quantifying	the	Weight	of	Fingerprint	Evidence	through	the	Spatial	Relationship,	Directions	and	Types	

of	Minutiae	Observed	on	Fingermarks."	Forensic	Science	International	248,	no.	0	(3//	2015):	154-71.

Stoney,	David	A.	"Measurement	of	Fingerprint	Individuality."	In	Advances	in	Fingerprint	Technology,	

edited	by	Henry	C.	Lee	and	Robert	E.	Gaensslen.	Crc	Series	in	Forensic	and	Police	Science,	327-87.	Boca	

Raton:	CRC	Press,	2001.