Summary of Progress:

Hurricane Maria NCST Investigation

Joseph Main

Lead Investigator, Hurricane Maria NCST

National Institute of Standards and Technology

National Construction Safety Team Advisory Committee Meeting

June 10, 2021

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting 

– June 10

-11, 2021
• Hazard Exposure: Strong Category 4 hurricane with peak gusts near 

140 mph (63 m/s), even larger with topographic speedup effects; 

rainfall up to 40 inches (100 cm), extensive flooding, landslides

• Exposed Population: Entire Commonwealth (~3.3M people)

• Mortality: Challenges in attributing hurricane-related deaths; official 

Puerto Rico death toll of 2,975 lives lost (excess mortality estimate)

• Engineered Buildings: Extensive nonstructural damage, rainwater 

intrusion, and loss of function

• Emergency Response: Challenges with rescues in flooded areas, 

complicated by loss of communications for extended periods

• Infrastructure Systems: Severe physical damage and complete/near 

complete loss of function for electrical and communications systems 

presented emergency response and recovery challenges 

• Education, Healthcare and Businesses: Negative impacts on 

recovery due to power loss, non-structural building damage, 

generator failures, and road closures

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

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Factors considered in establishing a National Construction Safety Team (NCST)
NCST Technical Investigation of Hurricane Maria

In February 2018, the NIST Director established a National 

Construction Safety Team to conduct a technical investigation 

of the effects of Hurricane Maria on Puerto Rico

Goals of the NCST investigation are to characterize:

1. the wind environment and technical conditions associated with 

deaths and injuries

2. the performance of representative critical buildings, and designated 

safe areas in those buildings, including their dependence on lifelines

3. the performance of emergency communications systems and the 

public’s response to such communications

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NCST Investigation Projects

Hazard Characterization: Document and understand the storm’s 

wind environment and other hazards including storm surge, rainfall, 

flooding, and landslides 

Performance of Critical Buildings: Evaluate how critical buildings 

performed (specifically hospitals, schools, and shelters) – including 

their dependence on electricity, water, and other infrastructure

Public Response to Emergency Communications: Document the role 

of emergency communications and the public’s response to those 

communications – focusing on communications during response and 

recovery (during and immediately after the hurricane)

Morbidity and Mortality: Better understand how damaged 

buildings, and failures in supporting infrastructure, played a role in 

injuries and deaths associated with the hurricane 

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NWIRP Research Study of Hurricane Maria

Complementing the NCST Investigation, NIST is conducting a 

research study under the National Windstorm Impact Reduction 

Program (NWIRP) focused on post-hurricane recovery processes

Goals of the NWIRP study are to characterize the impacts to and 

recovery of:

1. small and medium-sized manufacturers, as well as businesses in 

retail and service industries 

2. education and healthcare services

3. infrastructure systems, with a focus on infrastructure that supports 

critical buildings (i.e., hospitals and schools) and emergency 

communications

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NWIRP Research Projects

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains: Study the recovery 

of small- and medium-sized businesses – in the manufacturing, 

retail, and service sectors – to improve understanding of 

business continuity resilience planning and supply chain 

continuity

Recovery of Social Functions: Examine the recovery 

trajectories of sampled schools and hospitals to identify the 

underlying characteristics and conditions associated with 

recovery of critical social functions from Hurricane Maria

Infrastructure Systems Supporting Critical Buildings and 

Emergency Communications: Evaluate the dependencies of 

building function on infrastructure (power, water, and 

transportation), including cascading loss of function and 

sequencing of recovery activities and the causes of the loss of 

functionality and extended-duration outage of the wireless 

6 communication system
To facilitate coordination across projects, four regions of focus were selected, 

considering hazard exposure, geography, and socioeconomic factors:

Regions of Focus

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Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

Humacao Region
“This report is dedicated to those whose lives were lost or disrupted by this hurricane, 

and to those who will act on the findings and recommendations of future reports in 

order to improve the safety of people in Puerto Rico and elsewhere.”

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January 2021 Progress Report

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.1262 https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.SP.1262es
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Executive Summary

1. Introduction

1.1 NIST’s Role in Studying Disasters and Failures

1.2 Scope and Organization of Progress Report

2. Preliminary Reconnaissance and Decision to Establish a Team

2.1 Hazard Intensity

2.2 Exposed Population and Mortality

2.3 Physical Damage to Buildings and Infrastructure

2.4 Evacuation and Emergency Response Challenges

2.5 Economic and Social Impacts

2.6 Decision to Establish a Team

3. The NIST Hurricane Maria Program

3.1 Scope and Goals

3.2 Team Leadership and Members

3.3 Technical Plan and Projects

3.4 Advisory Committee

3.5 Coordination with Other Organizations

3.6 Estimated Duration and Cost

3.7 Impact of Events in Puerto Rico Following Hurricane Maria

4. Progress in Carrying Out the Hurricane Maria Program

4.1 Liaison Status with Other Agencies and Organizations

4.2 Award of Supporting Contracts

4.3 Initial Data Collection and Analysis

4.4 Advisory Committee Meetings and Reports

5. Final Reports and Recommendations

January 2021 Progress Report: Content and Organization
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January 2021 Progress Report: Stakeholder Outreach

• Website updates, including news update and new “Progress” page (see below)

• Federal agency principals updated through NWIRP Interagency Coordinating Committee

• Email updates to contacts in PR agencies, federal agencies, and other organizations

• Social media outreach by NIST Public Affairs Office

https://www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria/progress

• Spanish-language TV interview 

of Drs. Mitrani-Reiser and 

Aponte-Bermúdez by Ada 

Monzón on “Noticentro al 

Amanecer” (3/4/21)

• Presentation to PR Chapter of 

APICS (Assoc. of Production 

and Inventory Control Society) 

by Drs. Dillard and Helgeson 

(3/11/21)

• Nearly 1000 unique external 

website page views in the three 

weeks following report release

1566 total downloads (as of 5/23/21)

888 English / 678 Spanish
• NIST continues to operate on a maximum telework policy with all HM work and 

meetings conducted remotely

• Evaluation of critical buildings supported by Stantec contractor team:

− Virtual meetings conducted with hospital staff in support of Phase 1 data collection

− Some local travel by PR-based contractors to collect documents shared by hospitals

• Surveys and interviews supported by Horsley Witten contractor team: 

(Emergency Communications and three NWIRP Projects: Recovery of Business and Supply 

Chain, Recovery of Social Functions, Recovery of Critical Infrastructure) 

− Online and/or telephone-based modes of data collection being used rather than in-person

− Pandemic training conducted and safety protocols in place to support data collection in 

office settings and field teams traveling within study area to distribute information sheets 

to households being recruited for survey

• Mortality-related surveys supported by GWUPR contractor team:

− Survey data collection for pilot study is being conducted by telephone

− Extensive training conducted to familiarize interviewers with survey procedures and 

tablet-based questionnaire and to facilitate team-building in this telework context

COVID-19 Pandemic Updates
Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) review by Office of Management and Budget:

• Clearances under the NIST Generic Clearance for Community Resilience Data Collections, 

OMB Control Number #0693-0078

Review and Approval of Project Plans

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– Household Survey (Emergency Communications): 

Pilot survey approved November 2020; 

– Information Provider Interviews (Emergency 

Communications): approved December 2020

– Verbal Autopsy and Socio-Environmental Interviews 

(Morbidity and Mortality): approved March 2021

– Household Survey (Emergency Communications): 

Full survey approved April 2021

https://omb.report/omb/0693-0078
NIST Institutional Review Board (IRB) review of NCST and NWIRP project plans:

• NCST projects: Non-research exemption granted July 2020

• NWIRP projects: Data collection protocols and pilot instruments approved December 2020

– Hospital Recovery Survey (Recovery of Social Functions); Manufacturing Business 

Continuity Survey/Interview (Recovery of Business and Supply Chain) 

• NWIRP projects: Amendment for changes to protocol and instruments following pilot studies 

approved May 2021

− School Recovery Survey (Recovery of Social Functions); Retail/Service Business Continuity 

Survey and Interview (Recovery of Business and Supply Chain)

Puerto Rico Department of Education review of project plans and data 

collection instruments involving public schools:

• Performance of Critical Buildings (NCST project): approved March 2021

• Recovery of Social Functions (NWIRP project): approved March 2021

Review and Approval of Project Plans

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Contract Support

• Subcontract through Stantec established with University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez to 

support evaluation of critical buildings

• Contract option exercised on GWUPR contract for expert panel to retrieve and review 

additional data in cases of death identified as potentially due to building failures

Other Agency Coordination

• Data Use Agreements established with Demographic Registry at the Puerto Rico 

Department of Health and the Institute for Forensic Sciences for sharing of datasets to 

support mortality assessment by the GWUPR contractor team

• Ongoing coordination with FEMA, HHS on additional data requests

Staffing, Contracts, and Other Agency Coordination

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Staffing

• Staff hired to support Emergency Communications project, with expertise in 

risk and crisis communication: Dr. Emina Herović (photo at right)

• Guest Researcher hired to support Hazard Characterization project, with 

expertise in Computational Fluid Dynamics: Dr. Rameche Somassoundirame
NCST Projects:

• Household Survey (Emergency Communications): pilot 

testing completed Dec 2020

• Information Provider Interviews (Emergency 

Communications): in progress

• Verbal Autopsy and Socio-Environmental Interviews 

(Morbidity and Mortality): pilot testing in progress

NWIRP Projects:

• Hospital Recovery Survey (Recovery of Social 

Functions): pilot testing completed Feb 2020

• Manufacturer Business Continuity Survey and 

Interview (Recovery of Business and Supply Chain): 

pilot testing completed Feb 2020 

• School Recovery Survey (Recovery of Social Functions): 

pilot testing in progress

• Retail/Service Business Continuity Survey and 

Interview (Recovery of Business and Supply Chain): 

pilot testing in progress

Progress of Survey and Interview Data Collection

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HM web content for potential respondents

Landing page for school pilot survey
Coordination Between Hazard Characterization and Critical Buildings Projects:

• Completed wind tunnel testing of topographic models of Mayagüez and Yabucoa regions 

(1:3100 scale) using Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) measurement system

• Obtained PIV measurements of approach flow profiles at Hospital Bella Vista site, which will 

be used for wind tunnel testing of a scale model of the hospital buildings

• Completed the design of a wind tunnel model of Hospital Bella Vista (1:125 scale) using point 

cloud data obtained from drone photography

• Measurements will enable evaluation of topographic effects on wind loads, including 

evaluation of the adequacy of provisions in current standards and codes

Evaluation of Topographic Effects on Wind Loads

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Topographic Model of Mayagüez PIV Approach Flow Measurements Point Cloud Model of Hospital

Hospital Bella 

Vista site
• Collaboration on survey questions related to building damage:

− Damage matrix developed to capture degrees of damage to building components

− Survey questions developed across multiple projects with linkages to damage matrix

− Pilot data used to evaluate the mapping of survey responses to damage states

− Damage information from surveys for larger sample of buildings will provide valuable 

context for damages observed from detailed evaluations of selected critical buildings

• Online library with bibliography developed for sharing literature across the program 

• GIS datasets from across the program being compiled, documented, and maintained 

by a dedicated GIS staff member:

− Ongoing coordination with GWUPR’s GIS team to support analysis and visualization

− Ongoing efforts to implement U.S. National Grid standard for map products

Cross-Project Coordination

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Study Regions Landslide Density Peak Gust Wind Speed with Topographic Effects

Wind Speed (mph)
NCST Advisory Committee Meeting 

– June 10

-11, 2021

Questions?

Please ‘raise your hand’ using the Blue Jeans 

Participant window and unmute your audio and video

Joseph Main

Lead Investigator

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard

Associate Lead Investigator

maria.dillard@nist.gov

NCST Technical Investigation of 

Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico)