Summary of Hurricane Maria NCST 

Investigation Progress

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting

June 14, 2023

Joseph Main

Team Lead
• NIST is studying Hurricane Maria’s 

effects on Puerto Rico and subsequent 

recovery

• Goal: Recommend improved building 

codes, standards, and practices to 

help communities in Puerto Rico and 

across U.S. to be more resilient

• Launched February 2018; authorized by:

− National Construction Safety Team Act

− National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act

NIST Hurricane Maria Program

Credit: NOAA

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• Hazard Exposure: Strong Category 4 hurricane, 

peak gusts near 140 mph (greater with 

topographic speedup), up to 40” rain, 

extensive flooding, landslides

• Exposed Population: Entire 

Commonwealth (~3.3M people)

• Mortality: Challenges attributing hurricanerelated deaths; excess mortality est: 2,975 

• Engineered Buildings: Extensive 

nonstructural damage, rainwater intrusion, 

loss of function

• Emergency Response: Challenges with 

rescues in flooded areas, complicated by loss 

of communications for extended periods

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 144

Peak gust wind speed without topographic effects (mph)

1 mph = 0.447 m/s

3
• Infrastructure Systems: Severe physical damage and 

complete/near complete loss of function for electrical and 

communications systems presented emergency response 

and recovery challenges 

• Education, Healthcare and Businesses: Impacts on 

recovery due to power loss, non-structural building 

damage, generator failures, road closures

Impacts on Infrastructure and Recovery

Wireless communications status at 1 month

4 Percent cell service sites out-of-service – 10/24/2017
NCST Investigation Goals and Projects

Performance of 

Critical Buildings

Goals: To characterize:

1. the wind environment and technical conditions associated with deaths and injuries

2. the performance of representative critical buildings, and designated safe areas in those 

buildings, including their dependence on lifelines

3. the performance of emergency communications systems and the public’s response to 

such communications

Projects:

Morbidity & 

Mortality

Public Response 

to Emergency 

Communications

Hazard 

Characterization

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NWIRP Research Study Goals and Projects

Goals: To characterize the impacts to and recovery of:

1. small and medium-sized manufacturers, businesses in retail and service industries, and 

supply chains

2. education and healthcare services

3. infrastructure systems, with a focus on infrastructure that supports critical buildings 

(i.e., hospitals and schools) and emergency communications

Projects:

Impacts to & Recovery of 

Infrastructure Systems

Recovery of Business 

& Supply Chains

Recovery of 

Social Functions

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Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) Supported

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Wind Tunnel Testing and 

Field Measurement of Winds

University of Florida

• WeatherFlow, Inc.

• Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Engineering Services to 

Evaluate Critical Building 

Performance

Stantec Consulting Services, Inc.

• Virella Crespo & Associates (Mayagüez)

• University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

• Critical Buildings

Social Science Data Collection Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Morbidity and Mortality 

Assessment

Milken Institute School of Public Health at 

George Washington University

• University of Puerto Rico Graduate School 

of Public Health

• University of Washington

• Morbidity and Mortality

Supporting Contracts

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Collaborating & Coordinating Agencies

Federal

Federal Emergency Management Agency

NOAA’s National Weather Service

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Nat’l Ctr for Disaster Medicine and Public Health

U.S. Geological Survey

Small Business Administration

Dept of Health & Human Services Collaborate

Coordinate

NIST Engineering Laboratory Cooperate

Disaster & Failure Studies Program

Community Resilience Group

Structures Group

Earthquake Engineering Group

Applied Economics Office

Data, Security, Technology Group

Puerto Rico

Depts of Education, Health, Housing, Transportation &

Public Works, Economic Development & Commerce

PR Ports Authority, PR Energy and Power Authority 

PR Aqueduct & Sewer Authority, Emergency Management

Central Office for Recovery, Reconstruction & Resiliency

Municipalities, universities, businesses, nonprofits

Governor’s Federal Affairs Administration

Resident Commissioner’s Office

Other NIST Units

Public Affairs

Office of Chief Counsel

Congressional & Legislative Affairs

Program Coordination

Management & Organization

Acquisition & Agreements Mgt

Statistical Engineering Division of ITL

Research Protections 8
Panel Presentation Themes

Theme 1: Hospitals Theme 3: Infrastructure 

Dependencies

Theme 2: Sheltering

DongHun Yeo, Joseph Main, 

Judith Mitrani-Reiser

Marc Levitan, Katherine Johnson, 

Maria Dillard

Ken Harrison, Jennifer Helgeson, 

Maria Dillard

Subsequent panel presentations are organized around these cross-cutting themes:

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Outline of Hurricane Maria Presentations 

• Summary of Hurricane Maria Investigation Progress – Joseph Main

− Overview of goals and projects

− Highlights of recent progress

− Updates on stakeholder outreach and staffing

• Cross-Project Panel Theme 1: Hospitals

• Cross-Project Panel Theme 2: Sheltering

• Cross-Project Panel Theme 1: Infrastructure Dependencies

• Conclusion and Update on Hurricane Fiona – Maria Dillard

− Data collection status by project

− Update on expected timeline

− Update on plans and progress related to Hurricane Fiona

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Presentation of Preliminary Data & Analysis

• These presentations describe preliminary data gathered to date as well 

as preliminary analyses of these data. Data and analyses are subject to 

change. 

• Once all data are finalized and analyzed, they will inform a broader 

understanding of Hurricane Maria’s effects on Puerto Rico and 

subsequent recovery – and NIST's findings and recommendations. 

• Data and analyses in these presentations should not be used to form 

recommendations at this time.

IMPORTANT: ALL DATA ARE PRELIMINARY

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Highlights of Data Collection Completed

1500+ 

HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS

ON PUBLIC RESPONSE TO EMERGENCY COMMS

60 

HOUSEHOLD INTERVIEWS 

ON PUBLIC RESPONSE TO EMERGENCY COMMS

30 

HOSPITAL STAFF INTERVIEWS

ON HOSPITAL FUNCTIONS FOR MORTALITY ASSESSMENT

400+ 

NEXT-OF-KIN INTERVIEWS 

ON MORTALITY CAUSES & SURROUNDING CONDITIONS

300+ 

SCHOOL SURVEYS

ON RECOVERY OF SOCIAL FUNCTIONS

16 

HOSPITALS SURVEYS

ON RECOVERY OF SOCIAL FUNCTIONS

450+

BUSINESS SURVEYS

ON HURRICANE IMPACTS AND RECOVERY

30

SHIPPING & TRANSPORT INTERVIEWS

ON PREPAREDNESS, IMPACTS, AND RECOVERY

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Processed Wind Tunnel Datasets Delivered

University of Florida contractor team delivered processed datasets 

from wind tunnel testing of building and topographic models

• Topographic models (1:3100 scale):

− Yabucoa and Mayagüez regions, generic ridge and plateau models

− Velocity field measurements from PIV, profiles from velocity probes

• Building Models (1:100 scale):

− Two selected hospitals: Hospital Bella Vista and University Pediatric

− Pressure tap, load cell, and velocity probe measurements

[m/s]

Hospital site

Mayagüez topographic model

Flow field measurements from Hospital Bella Vista building model

Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) Mean pressure coefficients 13
Albizu University contractors solicited responses from households 

across 4 study regions:

• >1500 households surveyed

• 60 follow-on interviews conducted

• ~95% of interviews were in-person, although 

alternatives were provided

• Data provide detailed, household-level information on:

− Receipt of emergency communications

− Evacuation behavior and decision-making

Household Surveys and Interviews Completed

Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

Humacao Region

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GW/UPR contractor team transmitted de-identified dataset of deaths in 

Puerto Rico surrounding Hurricane Maria

Database includes:

• decedents’ demographic 

information, medical conditions 

and surrounding information 

• geographic conditions

• socio-economic conditions

• verbal autopsy data 

• medical records abstraction 

data 

• hospital functionality data

Integrated Mortality Database Delivered

Integrated 

Database

N=16,856

2,562 Variables

Puerto Rico Vital 

Registration 

System 

N=16,856

Death certificates

GIS Death Place

N=16,856

Disaster 

susceptibility, etc. 

at place of death

SEI Data

N=78

Municipality 

Socioeconomic 

Score

Verbal Autopsy

N=431

Survey data

GIS Residence

N = 1,805

Disaster susceptibility, etc. 

at place of residence

Medical Record 

Abstraction

N=139

Patient 

information

Bureau of Forensic 

Sciences

N=7,900

DMORT, pathology, 

cremation, etc. 

Hospital Damage 

Assessment

N=86

Cause of death, 

location

Deaths 

9/1/17-

2/28/18 

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• Support for infrastructure-sector interviews has resulted 

from coordination with PR agencies and organizations:

− Transportation (DTOP): Letter of support provided by Secretary 

Vélez following in-person meeting (December 2022); contact list 

also provided

− Power (LUMA/PREPA): Updated contact lists provided

− PRASA: Contact lists provided, engagement with regional managers 

facilitated

• PR Department of Education extended its 

approval of data collection activities involving 

public schools for another year (March 2023)

• Team members traveled to meetings in PR

(October, December 2022)

Stakeholder Outreach & Puerto Rico Travel

Disrupting the Disaster Cycle

Forum at UPR Río Piedras

October 26, 2022

NIST-GW-UPR Workshop

UPR Medical Sciences Campus

December 1-2, 2022

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Staffing Updates

• Dr. Gina Eosco of NOAA appointed 

as NCST member to provide 

expertise in risk communication, 

especially for the Emergency 

Communications Project

• Nathan McKinney hired to provide 

GIS expertise across the Hurricane 

Maria Program

• Term extensions approved by DOC 

and OPM for three NIST staff 

supporting the HM program

Gina Eosco Nathan McKinney

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Questions?

Joseph Main, Ph.D.

Team Lead

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard, Ph.D.

Associate Team Lead

maria.dillard@nist.gov

www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria