NWIRP Study of 

Hurricane Maria Impacts and 

Recovery in Puerto Rico:

Preliminary Project Plan for Characterizing the 

Impacts to and Recovery of Small- and 

Medium-sized Businesses and Supply Chains

Jennifer Helgeson, Ph.D.

Research Economist, Applied Economics Office 

National Institute of Standards and Technology
11/29/2018

Slide 2

• To identify the underlying characteristics and conditions associated with 

recovery of supply chains from disturbance from Hurricane Maria in Puerto 

Rico. 

• Examine the recovery trajectories of sampled small- and medium-sized 

businesses, including manufacturing, retail, and service sectors in Puerto 

Rico, to provide greater understanding of business continuity resilience 

planning and supply chain continuity and how these may differ between 

industries/affected regions.

• This project will also include investigation of the interdependencies with 

business functions and the broader community (e.g., households, critical 

health facilities, and schools). 

Objective

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Under the National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act Reauthorization of 2015 

(Public Law 114-52), NIST is conducting a scientific study of Hurricane Maria’s 

impacts on Puerto Rico and subsequent recovery processes to characterize: 

1) The impacts to and recovery of small and medium-sized manufacturers (SMMs), as well 

as businesses in retail and service industries;

2) The impacts to and recovery of education and healthcare services;

3) The impacts to and recovery of infrastructure systems in Puerto Rico, with a focus on 

infrastructure that supports the functioning of critical buildings (i.e., hospitals and 

schools) and emergency communications. 

Goals 1 and 2 align to NWIRP Strategic Plan Goal B: Improve the Understanding of 

Windstorm Impacts on Communities

• Objective 7: Improve understanding of economic and social factors influencing windstorm 

risk reduction measures

• Objective 8: Develop tools to improve post-storm impact data collection, analysis, and 

archival

Background (1/2)

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11/29/2018

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• Manufacturing and retail business services are an important part of understanding 

the impacts of Hurricane Maria, as well as the long term recovery of Puerto Rico and 

its supply chains.

• Manufacturing activity in the Commonwealth accounts for about 45 % of Puerto 

Rico’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and over 20 % of its employment (PR BLS 2017). 

• According to FEMA (2015), 1 40 % of small businesses never reopen after a disaster 

and another 25 %, that do reopen, fail within a year. Evidence suggests that 

businesses located in communities that are facing economic downturn ahead of a 

natural disaster event typically do not fare well in recovery (e.g., Corey and Deitch 

2013). 2

• Efforts are needed to: 1. identify and understand mechanisms limiting economy-wide 

resilience and recovery; 2. develop metrics to identify areas of supply chain 

vulnerability due to the loss of functionality of the built environment resulting from 

Hurricane Maria.

Background (2/2)

Recovery of Social Functions

1. Corey, C. M. and E. A. Deitch (2011). "Factors affecting business recovery immediately after Hurricane Katrina." Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management 

19(3): 169-181.

2. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA). (2015). “Make Your Business Resilient.” 

https://www.fema.gov/media-library-data/1441212988001-1aa7fa978c5f999ed088dcaa815cb8cd/3a_BusinessInfographic-1.pdf
11/29/2018

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• Survey data collection:

• Sampling unit: Organization

• Small- and medium-size manufacturers (SMMs) and 

• Small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in the retail and services sectors (e.g., 

grocery, clothing, and restaurants)

• Sample in order to assess differences in recovery related to:

• Geography

• Population characteristics (e.g., business specialization, business size, public/private 

ownership)

• Variation in degree of hazard exposure/impacts

Preliminary Project Plan (1/3)

Photo Credit: NIST

• Project methods include:

1. Structured surveys of owners/managers of SMMs and SMEs

2. Semi-structured surveys of SMMs and SMEs focused on supply chain disruption and recovery

3. Semi-structured interviews with port authorities (e.g., San Juan and Ponce) related to supply 

chain vulnerability 
11/29/2018

Slide 6

Preliminary Project Plan (2/3)

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Sample from study 

area(s)

SMEs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

SMMs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

Port Authority 

Rep(s)

Semi-structured 

interviews 

Inputs to 

model of PR 

supply chain

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMEs

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMMs
11/29/2018

Slide 7

Modeling to consider the following variables:

• Pre-existing state

• Resilience characteristics – e.g., flexible decision 

making structures, economic security of the business

• Initial vulnerability

• Impacts (direct and indirect)

• Physical damage – e.g., building, infrastructure, 

contents, inventory, machinery, functionality

• Non-physical – e.g., impact on employees, 

service/supply providers (up- and down-stream), 

management

• Interdependencies (infrastructure, households, critical 

functions)

• Response 

• Decision-making and delays

• Resources (recovery assistance)

• Plans in place

• Policies

• Recovery

• Physical repair/restoration status

• Recovery of services (e.g., electricity, water)

• Delays and decision-making in relation to delays

• Infrastructure interdependencies

• Employee-related recovery

• Recovery finance (e.g., applications and funds received)Independent Variables

Pre-existing 

state variables

Impact 

variables

Response 

variables

Control for

Initial 

vulnerabilities

Pre-existing 

conditions

Dependent Variable

Recovery state 

variable

• Composite of 

several recovery 

indicators

Preliminary Project Plan (3/3)

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Slide 8

• Developing a better understanding of the potential study area:

• Population characteristics

• Distribution of businesses and industrial parks, relative to critical functions (e.g., 

hospitals)

• Hazard impacts (building damage, deaths)

• Writing and submitting contract for survey and interview research services to NIST’s 

Acquisitions Management Division

• Identifying linkages between projects (e.g., overlapping samples, methods, models, and 

analyses) 

• Collecting background data for SMEs

• Lists of SMMs 

• Understanding regionally important manufacturing sectors

• Preliminary impact assessments, damage, and closure data from PRiMEX (Puerto Rico 

Manufacturing Extension Partnership)

• Damage assessments

• Collection of data on institutional characteristics by business type and region

FY18 Progress Updates

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Slide 9

• Award contract for survey and 

interview data collection

• Coordinate with other NWIRP 

Hurricane Maria projects

• Develop draft sampling strategy for

survey research

• Develop draft structured survey, semistructured survey, and interview 

instruments

• Prepare packages for data collection 

instrument approvals

• NIST’s Institutional Review Board 

• Office of Management and Budget’s Paperwork 

Reduction Act

Next Steps

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