Disaster and Failure Studies 

Program Update

Eric Letvin

Director, Disaster and Failure Studies Program

National Institute of Standards and Technology

U.S. Department of Commerce

NCST Advisory 

Committee

December 11, 2013
Presentation Outline

• Decision Criteria Update / Management Memo

• Recent Disasters

• Update on Hurricane Sandy study with FEMA
NIST Decision Criteria and 

Guidelines

• NIST updated the Decision Criteria and Guidelines that 

provide a rational basis for evaluating whether NIST 

should conduct a study.
Old Categories of Decision 

Criteria

• Substantial Loss of Life or Disabling Injury

• Significant Potential for Loss of Life: Exposed Population

• Level of Hazard

• Consequences (Extent of Damage and 

Loss of Functionality)

• Need for NIST involvement

• Stakeholder Concern

• Evacuation / Emergency Response 

• International Events
Updated Categories of Decision 

Criteria

• Substantial Loss of Life or Disabling Injury

• Significant Potential for Loss of Life: Exposed Population

• Level of Hazard => Hazard and/or Failure Event

• Consequences (Extent of Damage and 

Loss of Functionality) = > Consequences to Resilience

• Need for NIST involvement

• Stakeholder Concern

• Evacuation / Emergency Response 

• International Events



Application of the Decision 

Criteria

• Weighted score ≥ 4.0 – The score is above the 

screening threshold for conducting a preliminary 

reconnaissance. The answers to the 6 questions and the 

summary assessment will be used to determine whether 

a preliminary reconnaissance will be conducted. 

• Weighted score ≤ 3.0 – The score is below the screening 

threshold for conducting a preliminary reconnaissance.

• Weighted score between 3.0 and 4.0 – The answers to 

the six questions and the summary assessment along 

with the weighted score will be considered to whether 

the screening threshold for a preliminary reconnaissance 

is met. 
Engineering Laboratory 

Management Memo

• Management Memo #17 

issued on 8/9/13 replaces 

older memo from 1999

• Provides internal guidance 

regarding the Disaster and 

Failure Studies Program
Recent Disasters and NIST 

Criteria Scores

• Disasters that were evaluated against the 

criteria since last Committee meeting (12/10/12)

• Calculated preliminary reconnaissance criteria 

scores

• NIST action on Hurricane Sandy
Santa Maria (Brazil) Night Club 

Fire (1/28/13)

• 242 fatalities

• Illegal indoor usage of outdoor pyrotechnics – ignited 

acoustic foam on the ceiling

• Similarities to Station nightclub fire (2003)
Hattiesburg, MS Tornado

(2/10/13)

• Impacted Hattiesburg, MS including University of 

Southern Mississippi and two high schools

• EF-4, on the ground for 33 minutes (NOAA) 

• 0 fatalities, 82 injuries (NOAA and other news sources) 
West, TX Explosion

(3/4/13)

• Storage facility for ammonium nitrate, approximately 30 

tons detonated (CSB)

• More than 200 buildings were damaged or destroyed 

(CSB)

• Chemical Safety Board conducting ongoing investigation

– CSB is an independent federal agency charged with investigating industrial 

chemical accidents

– CSB deployed a team of approximately 18 investigators and other technical 

experts within 24 hours of the incident

• 14 fatalities including 12 first 

responders, 200 injuries (CSB)
Granbury, TX Tornado

(5/15/13)

• EF-4, damaged 97 out of 110 homes in the Rancho 

Brazos Subdivision (NOAA)

• 6 fatalities, 54 injuries (NOAA and other news sources)
Moore, OK Tornado

(5/20/13)

• EF-4, total path length of 14 miles and on the ground for 

39 minutes (NOAA)

• 24 fatalities, including 7 children (NOAA and other news 

sources) 

• 2,393 structures were impacted, including 1,128 

structures that were destroyed and 335 that sustained 

major damage (FEMA)

• Preliminary reconnaissance team deployed on May 22 –

The reconnaissance was conducted in cooperation with 

NOAA’s NSSL
Moore, OK Tornado

(5/20/13)

• Objective was to document the performance of the emergency 

communication systems and three critical and institutional facilities, 

the Moore Medical Center and Plaza Towers and Briarwood 

Elementary schools

• Complements Joplin investigation
Moore, OK Tornado

(5/20/13)

• NIST SP published 12/13

http://www.nist.gov/customcf/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=914721
Philadelphia (6/5/13)

• 2138 Market St, an unoccupied four-story building was 

under demolition (Philadelphia Inquirer and various news sources) 

• Building collapsed onto a one-story building containing a 

Salvation Army thrift store next door 

• 6 people died, 14 injured

• City Inspector General and OSHA conducting 

investigations
Black Forest Wildfire (CO) (6/13)

• Most destructive fire in Colorado history 

(14,280 acres)

• 509 homes destroyed

• 2 fatalities

(Source: KKTV and various news sources)
Yarnell Hill Wildfire (AZ) (6/13)

• 8,400 acres burned, 129 buildings destroyed 

(Source: inciweb.org and various news sources) 

• 19 fatalities – Prescott Fire Department’s 

Granite Mountain Hotshots
Typhoon Haiyan - Philippines 

(11/13)

• Over 5,700 fatalities

• Unofficially the fourth strongest typhoon ever 

recorded based on wind velocity

• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rS0gv4Xbw7w#t=20
Recent Disasters

Date Event Total Weighted 

Score

1/13 Santa Maria (Brazil) Nightclub Fire 2.8

2/13 Hattiesburg, MS Tornado 2.4

4/13 West, TX Explosion 3.4

5/13 Granbury, TX Tornado 3.0

5/13 Moore, OK Tornado 4.0

6/13 Philadelphia Building Collapse 2.3

6/13 Black Forest Wildfire (CO) 3.3

6/13 Yarnell Hill Wildfire (AZ) 4.0

11/13 Typhoon Haiyan – Philippines 4.1
Hurricane Sandy - Update

• Dr. Therese McAllister (NIST) participated on FEMA’s 

Mitigation Assessment Team (MAT)

• NIST’s Objective within the MAT

1. Collect data/observations on the performance of critical facilities 

and infrastructure systems in the affected area 

2. Examine the effect of cascading infrastructure failures on the 

performance and recovery of critical facilities. 

• FEMA’s P-942 MAT Report released on 11/27/13

 (http://www.fema.gov/media-library/assets/documents/85922) 
Hurricane Sandy – Update

• Dr. McAllister helped assess

– 8 Hospitals and 4 Senior Centers

– 3 WWTPs

– 3 Transit facilities

– 2 Data centers
Hurricane Sandy - Update

The findings from the Hurricane Sandy study will be used as a case 

study for research on community resilience. 

• Hospitals, WWTP, Data Centers, and Transit facilities experienced 

significant damage and duration of recovery due to loss of 

equipment and utilities in basements as well as loss of public power, 

communication, and transportation services.

• Many of these facilities recovered in stages, but full recovery may 

take years as these facilities require unique equipment with long 

lead times.

• The community reliance on public utilities indicates that these 

services may need to be designed for higher levels of performance 

and/or recovery rates to achieve the desired resilience levels.
Recent Significant Code Change Activities Based on NIST 

Non-NCST Studies – Charleston Sofa Super Store Fire

• NIST worked with the ICC’s Code Technology Committee (CTC) to 

move forward with three code change proposals responsive to the 

recommendations of the study. 

• Requirements associated with recordkeeping, periodic inspections 

and sprinkler system protection for retail, manufacturing and storage 

occupancies that display, fabricate or store upholstered furniture or 

mattresses were successful at the ICC public hearings (Dallas, TX) 

• An additional proposal concerning fire inspector and fire plan 

examiner qualifications will be supported at the Public Comment 

hearings in Atlantic City, NJ.

• A fourth proposal to require risk-based periodic fire safety 

inspections was withdrawn by the CTC but will be pursued by other 

allies.

• ICC code changes will be effective in 2015 I-Codes (International 

Fire Code and International Existing Building Code)
Recent Significant Code Change Activities Based on 

NIST WTC Investigation

• In the WTC Investigation, NIST recommended that ‘progressive 

collapse be prevented in buildings through the development and 

nationwide adoption of consensus standards and code provisions’. 

• Based on a proposal from NIST, a new ASCE/SEI Standards 

Committee called the ‘Disproportionate Collapse Mitigation 

Standard’ Committee has been established. The Committee plans to 

have the standard drafted within the next three years. 
Disaster and Failure Studies 

Program Update

Questions/Discussion

Eric Letvin

Director, Disaster and Failure Studies Program

National Institute of Standards and Technology

U.S. Department of Commerce

NCST Advisory 

Committee

December 11, 2013