OECD’S

GLOBAL PLASTIC OUTLOOKS:

MODELLING PLASTICS 

PRODUCTION & POLLUTION

Ruben Bibas, OECD Environment Directorate

Workshop on Data and Harmonization to Improve the 

Circularity of Plastics

24 January 2023
The Global Plastics Outlooks in a nutshell

First comprehensive mapping of the lifecycle of 

plastics globally

High-level of granularity: primary and secondary 

production, 14 polymer categories, various applications

Domestic plastics policy landscape covering 50 

countries

Forward-looking to 2060 with a multi-regional, multisectoral dynamic model

Presents scenarios projecting future plastics use, waste 

and leakage

Quantifies costs of policy packages towards eliminating 

leakage at regional level

Investigates synergies between plastics and climate 

policies

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OVERVIEW OF THE MAIN 

RESULTS

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4

The plastic lifecycle in 2019
Rivers are a key pathway and sink for 

aquatic leakage today

5
6

Global plastics use is on course to 

almost triple by 2060

All polymers are projected 

to increase...

Packaging, construction 

and vehicles will be 2/3 

...in all applications of all use
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Plastic waste will also triple, half will still be 

landfilled and unmanaged keeps increasing
How far would we be in 2060 from zero 

plastic pollution?

Other lifecycle impacts 

(e.g. land use, human 

toxicity)

GHG emissions

Stocks in aquatic 

environments alone

Mismanagement 

in dumpsites and 

open-pit burning

Leakage to the 

environment

44 Mt /year

115 Mt /year

493 Mt by 2060

4.3 Gt /year

Doubling from 2019 levels

The circularity of the plastics lifecycle only 

increases from 8% to 14%

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Present situation:

Current circumstances and policy 

landscape

How to achieve better 

environmental outcomes?

Gradually increasing stringency 

of measures

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The vision behind two policy packages

Co-ordinated policy action

How do we get there?

Global Goal:

Eliminate leakage

Regional Action Global Ambition
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Both policy packages target the entire 

plastics lifecycle

Restrain plastics demand

and enhance circularity

Close

leakage pathways

Enhance recycling

Packaging

tax

Improve plastic

waste collection

Ecodesign

Enhance 

recycling 

through 

waste 

management

Extended

Producer

Resp.

Production & Waste

Conversion

Use

Recycled

Incinerated

Landfilled

Mismanaged

Tax on 

non-packaging 

items

Recycled

content

target Improve litter 

collection
Combining policies that target different lifecycle 

stages can drastically reduce plastics leakage

11 ● Baseline ● Regional 

Action

● Global 

Ambition 2019

Plastic use Plastic waste Mismanaged

plastic waste

Plastic leakage

827

(-33%)

679

(-33%)

6

(-96%)

6

(-85%)

1018

(-17%)

837

(-17%)

59

(-62%) 20

(-55%)

1231

1014

153

44

In 2060,

million tonnes

22 79

353

460

2019 2060

Share of recycled plastics

Global Ambition

41%

Regional Action 29%

Baseline

12%

6%

In 2019,

million tonnes

Only 

unmanaged 

sources of 

waste 

remain

2019 2060

Stocks in rivers and oceans

Baseline

493 Mt

Global

Ambition

300 Mt

140 Mt
MODELLING AND DATA

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• Global assessment with ENV-Linkages

Modelling methodology

Multisectoral

model

ENV-Linkages

Plastic use data

Structural change 

assumptions on demand 

and production

Macro 

model

ENV-Growth Capital 

accumulation

Total factor 

productivity

Labour

Demographics

Economic 

projections

Plastics 

projections

COVID

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Overview of the methodology to model 

plastic flows

• Project sectoral and regional economic 

developments using a global CGE model (15 

world regions)

1. DRIVERS OF PLASTIC USE

• Associate plastic volumes to sectoral demand in 

CGE 2. PLASTIC VOLUMES

3. PLASTIC WASTE • Calculate waste flows, based on product lifetimes

• Break down waste by waste management 

(recycled, incinerated, landfilled, mismanaged)

4. PLASTIC WASTE 

MANAGEMENT

• Estimate environmental impacts: plastic leakage 

to the environment, greenhouse gas emissions, 

lifecycle impacts

5. ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS

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Modelling plastics flows

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Modelling waste:

a lifetime distribution approach

Source: adapted from Geyer, Jambeck and Law (2017[1]).

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Modelling primary and secondary plastics –

calibration of economic databases

• Two production technologies producing one good

• Shares applied to GTAP sectors (rpp  plp + pls)

• Cost shares from Exiobase

• Primary uses most of the fossil fuels

• Secondary uses about half of chemical sector inputs

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Modelling primary and secondary

plastics – volumes & dynamics

• Calibrated coefficient at base year applied to 

growth of overall demand for plastics 

(rpp/chm inputs to other sectors)

• Secondary production grows with secondary 

economic flows (as processed scrap is 

assumed to be used) – Calibration of initial volumes: waste collected for 

recycling + loss rates  fixed point methodology – Check ex post of scrap availability

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Input data: plastic production

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Input data: plastic waste

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Input data: plastic environmental impacts

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• Incorporated trade in plastic waste per application and polymer type

• Volumes of plastic waste exports and imports are calculated based on UN Comtrade data:

o Total exports of plastic waste per country and polymer are estimated using the share of plastics exports (Comtrade) to plastic waste (output of ENV-Linkages). 

o Exports are split into partner countries and polymers using the country and polymer weights in 2019 for projections, and historical data for the years before

o Imports(r,rr) = Exports (rr,r)

• The end-of-life fates of plastic waste traded flows differ from the domestically treated waste: 50% of traded plastic waste is recycled, and the remaining is distributed across the other waste streams following the same proportions of end-of-life fates as domestically treated waste excluding littering. 

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Trade in plastics waste
• Data is open and downloadable: – https://www.oecd.org/environment/plastics/ – https://stats.oecd.org/ (under Environment > Global Plastic Outlook) – https://www1.compareyourcountry.org/global-plastics-outlook/

• The CGE model was soft-linked with several environmental models and 

methodologies: – DTU model of environmental leakage – Plastic leakage to terrestrial and aquatic environments (SPOT model, Leeds U) – Plastic leakage to aquatic environments (Laurent Lebreton) – Particulate matter emissions from tyre and brake wear (NILU) – Effects of higher penetration rates of biobased plastics (Neus Escobar and Wolfgang Britz) – Health and environment impacts from the life cycle of plastics (Ghent University)

Databases and linkages 

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Thank you

Find out more at: www.oecd.org/environment/plastics

Contact: ruben.bibas@oecd.org