Summary of Hurricane Maria 

NCST Investigation Progress

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting

September 7, 2023

Maria Dillard

Associate Team Lead

Joseph Main

Team Lead
Presentation Outline

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
Program Overview

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
Hurricane Maria Program

Failure of power 

& communications

Landslides, road damage

Heavy rain,

flooding 

Rainwater intrusion in buildings Building envelope damage

Wind measurements

on cell towers

Wind tunnel testing

Facility 

evaluations

Wind field modeling

Surveys & interviews
Hurricane Maria Program

2 Program Components

NCST Investigation NWIRP* Research Study

7 Technical Projects

Hazard

Characterization

Performance of 

Critical Buildings

Public Response 

to Emergency 

Communications

Morbidity & 

Mortality

Impacts to and Recovery 

of Infrastructure 

Systems

Recovery of Business 

and Supply Chain

Recovery of Social 

Functions

5 Major Contracts

Applied Research Associates University of Florida Stantec Consulting George Washington 

University Horsley Witten Group

Multiple Collaborating and Coordinating Agencies

FEMA NOAA HHS USGS NCDMHP PRDOH PRDOE PRDTOP PRASA PRFAA Many others...

1 Coordinated Program

5 *National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program
NCST Investigation Goals and Projects

Performance of 

Critical Buildings

Goals are to characterize:

1. the wind environment and technical conditions associated with deaths and injuries;

2. the performance of representative critical buildings, and designated safe areas in those 

buildings, including their dependence on lifelines; and

3. the performance of emergency communications systems and the public’s response to 

such communications.

Projects:

Morbidity & 

Mortality

Public Response 

to Emergency 

Communications

Hazard 

Characterization

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NWIRP Research Study Goals and Projects

Goals are to characterize the impacts to and recovery of:

1. small and medium-sized manufacturers, businesses in retail and service industries, and 

supply chains;

2. education and healthcare services; and

3. infrastructure systems, with a focus on infrastructure that supports critical buildings 

(i.e., hospitals and schools) and emergency communications.

Projects:

Impacts to & Recovery of 

Infrastructure Systems

Recovery of Business 

& Supply Chains

Recovery of 

Social Functions

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Data Collection Status

1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps

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Completed measurements of anemometer orientation & elevation at all 3 cell towers:

• laser scanning performed by a licensed surveyor on July 19, 2023

• provides significantly reduced uncertainty for measured wind direction data

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Map credit: WeatherFlow

Cell Tower Identifiers:

YMN: Yabucoa Manoabo Norte

ECY: El Cocal Yabucoa

YTA: Yabucoa Tanque de Agua

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Data Collection Update: Wind Measurements on Towers

The zero position for wind direction was 

determined by measuring the orientation 

of each junction box (shown in red)
• Completed site visits and interviews for hospitals and shelters

• Tasks completed since previous NCSTAC meeting on June 14, 2023:

− Site visits to 3 shelter facilities

− Interviews with 3 shelter operations managers and 1 school director

Data Collection Update: Evaluation of Critical Buildings

Phase 1: Document 

collection and review

Phase 2: Site visits 

and interviews

Completed July 2023

Facility Evaluations: 5 hospitals, 5 shelters

Wind Tunnel Testing 

of Two Hospitals

University of Florida

Stantec Consulting

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Data Collection Status:
Hazard Characterization Public Response to Emergency Communications 

Performance of Critical Buildings Morbidity & Mortality

NCST Data Collection Status: Completed

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Wave 2 is focused on tracking 

recovery progress and capturing 

initial impacts of Hurricane Fiona 

on schools and hospital services

Wave 1 is focused on assessing 

initial impacts of Hurricane Maria 

and tracking recovery progress for 

schools and hospital services

Data Collection Update: Wave 2 Survey of School and 

Hospital Recovery

Wave 1 Wave 2

Pre-Hurricane 

Maria

Immediate 

Impacts

1 yr after 

Hurr. Maria

2 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

3 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

5 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

Recovery of services, Repair completion

Organizational resources

Receipt of disaster assistance

Hurr. 

Fiona 

Impacts

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Data Collection Update: Wave 2 Survey of School and 

Hospital Recovery

Wave 2 Data Collection In Progress

School Surveys: 45 completed; 56 in progress

Target sample is Wave 1 respondents (~300 schools)

Hospital Surveys: Surveying began late August

Target sample is Wave 1 respondents (~16 hospitals)

Illustration of analysis 

combining Waves 1 and 2 

recovery metrics

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Pre-Hurricane 

Maria

Immediate 

Impacts

1 yr after 

Hurr. Maria

2 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

3 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

5 yrs after 

Hurr. Maria

Recovery of services, Repair completion

Organizational resources

Receipt of disaster assistance

Hurr. 

Fiona 

Impacts
Contracting Updates

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) Supported

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Wind Tunnel Testing and 

Field Measurement of Winds

University of Florida

• WeatherFlow, Inc.

• Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Engineering Services to 

Evaluate Critical Building 

Performance

Stantec Consulting Services, Inc.

• Virella Crespo & Associates (Mayagüez)

• University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

• Critical Buildings

Social Science Data Collection Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Morbidity and Mortality 

Assessment

Milken Institute School of Public Health at 

George Washington University

• University of Puerto Rico Graduate School 

of Public Health

• University of Washington

• Morbidity and Mortality

Horsley Witten Group

Supporting Contracts

University of Florida

Stantec Consulting

GW/UPR

Source: Bernardo Hernández Prado

Applied Research Associates

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Status Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) 

Supported

New Contract

(award 

imminent)

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard 

Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

New Contract

(awarded 

8/31/2023)

Field Measurement of Winds WeatherFlow, Inc. • Hazard 

Characterization

Modification

(awarded 

9/6/2023)

Social Science Data Collection Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency 

Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social 

Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Contracting Updates: Summary

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New Contracts

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Applied Research Associates: Additional 

tasks (building on previous contract) to 

support:

• development of final HM wind-field model, 

including documentation of total uncertainty 

in wind speeds, 

• analysis of wind loads on two hospital 

buildings tested in the UF wind tunnel, and

• development of wind-field model for 

Hurricane Fiona.

WeatherFlow: Continuation of data 

collection and system maintenance for a 

3rd year of wind measurements at the 

three cell tower sites

Credit for aerial imagery: Google, Maxar Technologies, CNES / Airbus, Landsat / Copernicus

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Horsley Witten Group, Inc., along with 

subcontractors Eastern Research Group, 

Issues & Answers, and Albizu University 

in Puerto Rico

• Function: Support the Hurricane 

Maria Program social science survey 

and interview data collection needs

• Awarded: December 2019

• Latest Modification: September 2023

Contract Modification: Social Science Data Collection

• Added support from 

contract team 

during report review 

period

• Added new 

geospatial work to 

link hazard exposure 

data to survey data

• Extended period of 

performance

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Analysis Updates

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
GIS leads are working with Project Leaders to document and coordinate 

geospatial analysis plans across projects, including:

• Geospatial data being generated

• Variables of interest for analysis

• Required spatial and temporal resolution

• Questions of interest and geospatial analyses planned

• Map products required for reports and presentations

Outcomes of this process

• Identification and prioritization of opportunities for cross-project analyses

• Plan and timeline for geospatial analyses and map development

Geospatial Analysis Planning & Coordination

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Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

Humacao Region

Data source: US Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2016
Representation of Hazard Exposure

Key priority identified from cross-project geospatial 

coordination:

Selection of suitable datasets to represent 

hazard exposure for each project

Suitable representation of hazard exposure 

depends on factors such as:

• spatial resolution of analysis (e.g., municipality, 

census tract, or GPS coordinates), 

• temporal resolution of analysis (e.g., storm total 

rainfall or variation of rainfall rate over time), and

• questions being addressed by the analysis (e.g., 

building performance, evacuation decisions).

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0

5

15

40

100

250

500 [mm]

Total precipitation (NCEP Stage IV)

Landslide density (USGS) 

Wind field model: peak gust speed 

with topographic effects (NIST)
Hazard Exposure and Building Performance

Key priority identified from cross-project geospatial coordination:

Need to link the best available hazard data to the precise locations of schools, hospitals, and 

businesses in the sample. 

The Horsley Witten contract modification will allow this link to be made, to inform a broader 

understanding of building impacts and performance across Puerto Rico while maintaining NIST’s plan 

to analyze deidentified data.

Distribution and concentration 

of schools, hospitals, and 

businesses that responded to a 

survey for the Recovery of Social 

Functions Project or the 

Recovery of Business and Supply 

Chain Project shown at right; 

NIST Study Regions shown in 

red. (Data Source: NIST)

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Relevant information from other projects includes:

• hazard exposure

• impacts to transportation networks 

• household decisions related to evacuation

Further Analysis of Integrated Mortality Database 

Integrated 

Database

N=16,856

2,562 Variables

Puerto Rico Vital 

Registration 

System 

N=16,856

Death certificates

GIS Death Place

N=16,856

Disaster 

susceptibility, etc. 

at place of death

SEI Data

N=78

Municipality 

Socioeconomic 

Score

Verbal Autopsy

N=431

Survey data

GIS Residence

N = 1,805

Disaster susceptibility, etc. 

at place of residence

Medical Record 

Abstraction

N=139

Patient 

information

Bureau of Forensic 

Sciences

N=7,900

DMORT, pathology, 

cremation, etc. 

Hospital Damage 

Assessment

N=86

Cause of death, 

location

Deaths 

9/1/17-

2/28/18 

Key priority identified from cross-project geospatial coordination:

Further analysis of integrated mortality database to identify patterns between where deaths occurred 

and additional information obtained by other projects 

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Transportation Recovery: 

Status of Primary Roads at 1 month 

(Data Source: PR Department of 

Transportation and Public Works)

Hazard Exposure: 

Landslide density 

(Map Source: USGS) 
Tree Canopy Analysis from Lidar Data

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Key priority identified from cross-project geospatial 

coordination:

Quantitative characterization of tree canopy from available 

Lidar data sets at different points in time

A data processing model has been developed for evaluation 

of Canopy Height and Leaf Area Index from Lidar data:

• Provides input data for modeling tree canopy in 

Computational Fluid Dynamics simulations of wind flow 

over complex terrain

• Allows for consistent modeling of tree canopy from 

different points in time, before and after Hurricane Maria

Data source: USGS 2018

Data source: USGS 2018
10/14/2022 25

Goal: to determine the 

degree of confidence in 

the output of an 

analysis or model

Statistical Analysis Support

Uncertainty

Goal: to improve the 

accuracy of survey 

estimates

Weighting

Goal: to fill in missing data 

and therefore, to retain 

as many cases as 

possible during analysis

Imputation

The Statistical Engineering Division is supporting the Hurricane Maria Team through 

engagement in analysis plans, review of data and results, and expert input.
Uncertainty Quantification for CFD Models

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• Gaussian Process (GP) emulator developed for Computational Fluid 

Dynamics (CFD) model with 5 varying inputs (50 CFD runs)

• Emulator used to optimize the 5 inputs to the experimental data

• CFD model calibrated to the experimental data using a second GP 

• Sources of uncertainty accounted for:

◦ Emulation of the CFD model

◦ Estimation of calibration function from finite data

◦ Experimental noise (deviations from a smooth function)

z

x

3 m

h

U

Cz

z0

19.57 m 4 m 6 m

Canopy Zone

U Inlet velocity

a Canopy zone location

h Canopy height

Cz Canopy coefficient

z0 Roughness length of wind tunnel floor

Turntable

a

Computational Domain
Weighting procedures being developed for the Emergency Communications 

Survey of Households

• Households responded across 4 study regions

• Over 1500 households surveyed

• Survey response rate is 26.6%

• Responses provide detailed information on:

◦ Receipt of emergency communications

◦ Evacuation behavior and decision-making

Sample Weighting for Surveys

Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

Humacao Region

27 Data source: US Census Bureau TIGER/Line 2016
Sample Weighting for Surveys

• The sample was designed to overrepresent areas prone to flooding and 

landslides and to be representative of 

socio-economic status across Puerto 

Rico

• The final survey sample over-represents 

females and older age groups when 

compared to the Puerto Rico 2017 

population estimates

• To correct for sampling bias, strategies 

are being considered that weight the 

sample by key demographics (e.g., adult 

age; household income; education) and 

by flood and landslide risk levels 28

Percentage of survey respondents by Census Block Groups

Illustration of sample design

Data Sources: US Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles, NIST 

Data Sources: (a) Puerto Rico, 2017 

Emergency Management Zones; (b) NIST, 

Grid; (c) USGS, Landslide Density

(a)

(b)

(c)
Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
• Dr. Thomas Kirsch reappointed as outside NCST member following 

retirement from NCDMPH*, now Adjunct Professor of Emergency 

Medicine in the GWU School of Medicine and Health Sciences.

• NIST Associates reappointed under newly awarded Professional 

Research Experiences Program (PREP), following expiration of 

previous program on June 30, 2023.

• Additional staffing appointments in process to provide support for 

data analysis and report writing.

Staffing

Thomas Kirsch

Kelly Anderson Dereka Carroll-Smith Zeinab Farahmandfar Yunjae Hwang Alizabeth Sánchez-López

* National Center for Disaster Medicine and Public Health 

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• September 15, 2023: Briefing on HM investigation 

progress for the Seismic Commission of the College of 

Engineers and Land Surveyors of Puerto Rico (CIAPR) 

• Coordinating with Puerto Rico Hospital Association 

(AHPR) to support increased response rates for 

ongoing hospital surveys and interviews on recovery 

of social functions

• Ongoing: NIST is engaged in the Fast-Track Action 

Committee (FTAC) on Data Infrastructure for Puerto 

Rico, established by the National Science and 

Technology Council (NSTC). The goal is to “enable 

data-driven decision-making in the distribution of 

unprecedented levels of federal funding available in 

accordance with the President’s policies on scientific 

integrity and evidence-based policymaking...”

Stakeholder Outreach

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Timeline & Next Steps

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1. Program Overview

2. Data Collection Status

3. Contracting Updates

4. Analysis Updates

5. Staffing & Stakeholder Outreach

6. Timeline & Next Steps
Expected Timeline: September 2023 Update

Phase 

1

• September 2017: Hurricane Maria occurs

• December 2017: Preliminary reconnaissance

• February 2018: Team established under NCST Act

Phase 

2

• May 2018: Initial briefing to NCSTAC on investigation plans

• February 2019 through September 2020: Supporting contracts awarded

• January 2021: Progress report published

• Data collection

Phase 

3

• Data analysis

• Development of findings and recommendations 

Phase 

4

• Draft final report written

• Internal and interagency review

• Draft final report released for public comment 

Phase 

5

• Final report revised

• Final report and associated data published

Fall 2024: Data analysis and 

draft reports complete

September 2023: NCST data 

collection completed, data 

analysis well underway

Winter 2024/25: Internal review 

process underway

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• Review and acceptance of contract deliverables, including 

reports and datasets

• Comprehensive analysis of collected data

• Development of draft findings and recommendations

• Completion of draft report volumes by project

• Internal and interagency review 

Next Steps

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Questions?

Joseph Main, Ph.D.

Team Lead

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard, Ph.D.

Associate Team Lead

maria.dillard@nist.gov

www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria