NWIRP Research Study of Recovery from

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains 

Post-Hurricane Maria

Project Leader: Jennifer Helgeson

Objective: To characterize the recovery of small- and medium-sized

businesses, including manufacturing, retail, and service sectors in

Puerto Rico to provide greater understanding of business continuity

resilience planning and supply chain continuity and how these may

differ between industries/affected regions.

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 10

-11, 2021
2

Background and Motivation

• This project falls under the NWIRP study of the NIST Hurricane Maria Program.

• There are supply chain linkages between Puerto Rico and the rest of the U.S. in 

critical sectors (e.g., healthcare) (NAS, 2020). 

• Businesses are a critical part of community functions and community-level 

resilience and recovery capacity.

• 99.7 % of businesses in Puerto Rico qualify as “small” (<500 employees at a 

location); 68 % of which have annual reported revenues of $250K or less; 75 % are 

micro-enterprises (less than 10 employees) (SBA, 2018, 2019)

• Project outcomes will support development of methods to assess community-level 

resilience.

• Focus is on empirical relationships between business functions and physical 

systems with regard for social systems and decision-making.

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening Post-Hurricane Supply Chain Resilience: Observations from 

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25490.

Importance of small- and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. (Small Business Administration- Office of Advocacy 2018, 2019)
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Background and Motivation: Study Area

• Regions by ZIP code 

selected as the 

study unit (NWIRP 

Projects)

• Municipios selected 

within the six 

shaded regions 

shown below

– Four common across 

all NIST projects

– Addition of 

Mayagüez and 

Ponce 

(concentration of 

manufacturers)
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Two-part plan and analysis outcomes:

1. Sampling and Surveying individual small- and medium-sized enterprises 

(SMEs):

• Small- and medium-size manufacturers (SMMs) and 

• Small- and medium-sized businesses in the retail and services sectors (e.g., 

grocery, clothing, and restaurants)

(Contractor supported effort, in progress)

2. Full supply chain modeling (based upon infrastructure, specifically 

transportation) for key Puerto Rico-based industries:

• Medical Device Manufacturing

• Food Preparation Manufacturing

(Use of Complex Network Theory and Discrete Event Simulation techniques 

discussed at the June 2020 NCSTAC Meeting)

Project Plan – Overview
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Sample from study 

area(s)

(Non-SMM) 

SMEs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

SMMs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

Shipping and 

Transport Rep(s)

Semi-structured 

interviews 

Inputs to 

model of PR 

supply chain

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMEs

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMMs

Project Plan – Study Design (1/3)

Data Collection Instruments
5/7/21

Slide 6

Project Plans: Sample Design (2/3)

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ZIP codes selected

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H H H H H

ZIP codes without hospitals

+

ZIP codes selected

ZIP codes with hospitals

Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z Z

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Z Z Z Z Z Z

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Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z Z Z Z Z Z

Z

71 ZIP codes 

without 

hospitals

10 ZIP codes for the 

"linking” hospitals

20 ZIP codes with 

other hospitals
Project Plan: Sample Design (3/3)

● Combined sample design for this project and Social Functions NWIRP 

project. Integrated to allow for a combined analysis with sufficient 

sample units within the same geographic area from both tasks.

● Random distribution of businesses proportional to the count of specified 

NAICS codes in a given ZIP code compared to those business types in ALL 

in-scope ZIP codes

# ZIP code 

areas

“Linking” 

Hospitals

Other 

Hospitals 

Schools Manufacturers Retail/Service

“Linking” 

Hospitals

10 100 % 26 % 23 % 21 % 20 %

Other 

Hospitals

20 74 % 25 % 22 % 29 %

No 

Hospitals

73 53 % 58 % 51 %
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Recent Progress (1/3)

Prior 

Resilience 

State

Impacts

Direct / indirect

Response /

Recovery

Planning 

towards Future 

Resilience State

• Physical damage –

e.g., built 

infrastructure, 

contents/inventory, 

machinery, 

• Non-physical – e.g., 

impact on employees, 

Interdependencies 

(infrastructure, critical 

functions)

• Plans in place

• Decision-making 

and delays

• Resources 

(recovery 

assistance)

• Resilience 

characteristics

• Initial vulnerability

• Physical 

repair/restoration 

status

• Recovery of services

• Decision-making 

related to delays

• Infrastructure 

interdependencies

• Recovery finance 

(e.g., funds received)

Independent 

VariablesPre-existing state 

variables

Impact variables

Response variables

Control for

Initial vulnerabilities

Pre-existing 

conditions

Earthquakes / 

COVID

Dependent 

VariablesRecovery state 

variable

Composite of several 

recovery indicators
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Risk Profile Personal Choice 

Beliefs

• Perceived Probability 

of event

• Perceived risk to life

• Perceived risk to 

property

• Affective factors

• Risk aversion

• Previous experience

• Knowledge/information

• Social influence

• Social norms

Circumstances

• Self-efficacy

• Perceived Control 

Recent Progress (2/3)
Recent Progress (3/3)

• Use of preliminary models derived from Complex Network Theory and Discrete Event 

Simulation to identify areas for structured data collection from business operators

• Rough draft report prepared for Complex Network Theory and Discrete Event Simulation 

exploratory analyses

• Small- & medium-sized manufacturer survey tools completed

o IRB-approved (Dec. 2020)

o Piloted (Complete Feb. 2021)

• Small- & medium-sized retailer survey tools completed

o IRB-approved (May 2021) 

o Pilot underway (as of May 2021)

• First draft Shipping and Transportation Interview Guide prepared

• Survey / interview data analysis framework developed

• Continued contact with PRiMEX* and additional contact with sector-specific Puerto Rican 

agencies/associations

10 *PRiMEX: The Puerto Rico Manufacturing Extension Inc. (PRiMEX) is a private non-profit organization, organized in 1996 through the initiative of Puerto Rico Industrial 

Development Company (PRIDCO) and the Manufacturing Extension Partnership (MEP), a program under the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
Next Steps 

• Complete all data collection instruments and collect “field” data

o Obtain Institutional Review Board (IRB) and Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) 

approvals

o Account for connections to other NWIRP data collections on recovery of social 

functions and recovery of infrastructure

o Conduct final pilot testing of survey and interview instruments

o Finalize sample of shippers and transportation companies

• Data analysis to be completed

o Quantitative analysis 

o Qualitative coding of interview data 

• Draft “Business and Supply Chain Recovery” for NWIRP Report

o Update literature/media review of issues in recovery facing SMEs and supply 

chains following Hurricane Maria

o Incorporate analyses based in econometric modeling of recovery trajectories 

and agent-based modeling of intended mitigation and adaptation behavior 11
NWIRP Research Study of Recovery from

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains 

Post-Hurricane Maria

Project Leader: Jennifer Helgeson

Project Team: Payam Aminpour (PREP Research Associate, Johns Hopkins 

University), Alfredo Roa-Henriquez (PREP Research Associate, Johns 

Hopkins University)

Acknowledgement of 

past members: 

Bilal Ayyub, 

Yalda Saadat,

Sally Saleem

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 10

-11, 2021

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