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National Institute of Standards and Technology

National Construction Safety Team Act

Annual Report

Fiscal Year (FY) 2019

Summary

This annual report to Congress for Fiscal Year (FY) 2019 is required by the National Construction

Safety Team (NCST) Act (Public Law 107-231). The National Institute of Standards and 

Technology (NIST) continues to assess Hurricane Maria’s impacts on Puerto Rico as part of the 

NCST investigation launched in FY 2018. The NIST Director established a Team on February 21, 

2018, to perform a technical investigation of the 2017 Hurricane Maria and its impacts on Puerto 

Rico. The goals of this investigation are to characterize: (1) the wind environment and technical 

conditions associated with deaths and injuries; (2) the performance of representative critical 

buildings, and designated safe areas in those buildings, including their dependence on local 

lifelines; and (3) the performance of emergency communications systems and the public’s 

response to such communications.

In FY 2019, NIST deployed preliminary reconnaissance teams to North Carolina, Florida, 

California, and Alaska, in response to Hurricane Florence, Hurricane Michael, the Camp Fire, and 

the Cook Inlet Earthquake, respectively. The observations from these preliminary reconnaissance 

efforts did not result in new NCST technical investigations.

NIST is continuing to implement the recommendations to develop consensus standards and code 

provisions related to progressive collapse from the Federal Building and Fire Safety Investigation 

of the World Trade Center Disaster (WTC Investigation)1 and the Technical Investigation of the 

May 22, 2011, Tornado in Joplin, Missouri (NCST Joplin Investigation)2

. 

Highlights of FY 2019 activities include:

• NIST awarded a contract to conduct the wind field modeling efforts and develop a timedependent wind-field model of Hurricane Maria’s impact on Puerto Rico;

• NIST awarded a contract to conduct wind tunnel testing at the National Science 

Foundation (NSF) supported University of Florida’s (UF) Natural Hazards Engineering 

Research Infrastructure Experimental Facility (NHERI EF) and to collect full-scale 

measurements of winds in regions of topographic interest in Puerto Rico;

• NIST awarded several grants under the NIST Disaster Resilience 2018 Notice of Funding 

Opportunity, supporting the recommendations from the NCST Joplin Investigation;

• NIST and the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) made significant progress on 

the development of tornado hazards maps and on performance-based design for wind 

hazards as part of the recommendations from the NCST Joplin Investigation;

• NIST made significant progress on guidance of public alerts and warnings as part of the 

recommendations from the NCST Joplin Investigation; and

• NIST contributed to the development and committee balloting of a draft consensus 

standard for disproportionate collapse mitigation of building structures, which addresses 

Recommendation #1 from the WTC Investigation.

1 Report available at: http://www.nist.gov/customcf/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=909017. 2 Report available at: http://www.nist.gov/customcf/get_pdf.cfm?pub_id=915628.
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Additionally, NIST held two meetings3 of the NCST Advisory Committee (NCSTAC or 

Committee) during FY 2019. One meeting was held via web conference on November 27, 2018, 

and one meeting was held in person at NIST in Gaithersburg, Maryland, on September 6, 2019. In 

these meetings, NIST briefed the NCSTAC on: 

• NIST’s response to the Committee’s FY 2018 report to Congress;

• progress on NIST implementation of the NCST Joplin Investigation recommendations;

• progress on the NCST Investigation of Hurricane Maria’s impacts on Puerto Rico, 

including investigation methods and project management, data security and management, 

and hazard characterization efforts;

• related studies of Hurricane Maria under the NWIRP authority;

• disaster and failure events scored using the preliminary reconnaissance screening criteria;

• preliminary deployment activities for Hurricanes Florence and Michael, the Camp Fire, 

and the 2018 Cook Inlet Earthquake (Anchorage, Alaska); and

• other NIST efforts, under the Disaster and Failure Studies Program, that enhance the 

readiness of National Construction Safety Teams (Teams).

In these meetings, the NCSTAC:

• supported NIST’s diverse team of researchers in a range of critical areas, including hazard 

characterization, performance of buildings and critical infrastructure, risk communication, 

business and supply chain logistics, and health and medicine;

• emphasized the need to engage and include local scientific and professional talent in Puerto 

Rico in the investigation;

• reinforced the need for NIST to combine engineering and social sciences across projects to 

offer new insights that could not be accomplished without collaboration of multiple

disciplines;

• encouraged continued collaboration with experts in data-driven science to progress efforts 

to secure and manage disaster-related data;

• suggested focusing future implementations of the NCST Joplin Investigation’s 

recommendations on wood-frame house construction, which represents the majority of

occupied structures in the United States and are designed using less rigorous standards, 

while recognizing that this may require extensive revisions to traditional practice and may 

be challenging;

• encouraged improvement of tornado shelter standards and public tornado sheltering 

strategies; 

• suggested that efforts to develop standards for risk communication continue to aid in 

effective messaging for populations at risk; and

• emphasized the need to quickly collect and document time-sensitive data with future NCST 

activities, and suggested looking to other entities (e.g., the National Transportation Safety 

Board) that may have developed protocols for quick response activities.

A summary of these meetings may be found on the NIST NCST website3 and in the FY 2019

Annual Report of the NCSTAC to Congress.

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3 NCSTAC meeting agendas, presentations, and summaries are available at:

https://www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/national-construction-safety-team-ncst/advisory-committeemeetings. 4 FY 2019 NCSTAC Report to Congress available 

at:https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2020/03/13/2019_NCSTAC_ReporttoCongress.pdf.
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Introduction

In October 2002, the NCST Act was signed into law by President George W. Bush and authorized

the Director of NIST to establish and deploy Teams to investigate events leading to failure of a

building or buildings that result in substantial loss of life or that pose significant potential for

substantial loss of life.

The purpose of these investigations is to improve the safety and structural integrity of buildings in 

the United States. A Team shall:

1. Establish the likely technical cause or causes of building failure;

2. Evaluate the technical aspects of evacuation and emergency response procedures;

3. Recommend, as necessary, specific improvements to building standards, codes, and 

practices based on the findings made pursuant to (1) and (2); and,

4. Recommend any research and other appropriate actions needed to improve the structural 

safety of buildings, and improve the evacuation and emergency response procedures, based 

on the findings and recommendations of the investigation.

Under Section 10 of the NCST Act, NIST is to provide an annual report to the House Committee

on Science, Space, and Technology and to the Senate Committee on Commerce, Science, and 

Transportation each year. This report is to include:

1. A summary of the investigations conducted by Teams during the prior fiscal year;

2. A summary of recommendations made by the Teams in reports issued under Section 8 of 

the NCST Act during the prior fiscal year and a description of the extent to which those 

recommendations have been implemented; and

3. A description of the actions taken to improve building safety and structural integrity by 

NIST during the prior fiscal year in response to reports issued under Section 8 of the NCST 

Act.

This report summarizes NIST’s activities under the NCST Act for FY 2019 as required by Section 

10 of the Act. 

1. Investigations Conducted Under the NCST Act during FY 2019

On September 20, 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico as a strong Category 4 

storm, causing fatalities, injuries, and damage to buildings and infrastructure. The NIST 

Director established a Team under the NCST Act—based on an analysis of the event against 

the criteria found in the NCST Act and its implementing regulations (15 C.F.R. Part 270)—to 

conduct a technical investigation of the building performance and emergency response and 

evacuation during Hurricane Maria. The goals of the NCST Hurricane Maria Investigation are

to characterize: (1) the wind environment and technical conditions associated with deaths and 

injuries; (2) the performance of representative critical buildings, and designated safe areas in 

those buildings, including their dependence on lifelines; and (3) the performance of emergency 

communications systems and the public’s response to such communications. 

The Team members continue to work on four projects related to the investigation: 
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(1) Hazard Characterization 

The objective of this project is to characterize the wind environment associated with 

Hurricane Maria’s impact on Puerto Rico, including topographic effects, and to 

document other hazards associated with the hurricane, including storm surge, 

rainfall, flooding, and landslides, in order to understand subsequent building 

failures. The investigative methods for this project include wind field modeling, 

wind tunnel testing, field measurements, and numerical simulation. 

A contract was awarded on February 8, 2019, to Applied Research Associates to 

support the wind field modeling efforts and develop a time-dependent wind-field 

model of Hurricane Maria’s impact on Puerto Rico that optimally matches available 

measured data. The current version of the wind field model incorporates

topographic effects. The final version of the wind field model will: include

additional surface-level meteorological observations; improve characterization of 

hurricane asymmetry; optimize the model fitting process; quantify uncertainty in 

results; and refine the topographic effects model based on wind tunnel and 

numerical results.

A contract was awarded to UF on May 1, 2019, to conduct the wind tunnel testing 

and field measurements. Experiments will be conducted at the NSF-supported

NHERI EF at the University of Florida (UF), on a large, reconfigurable boundary 

layer wind tunnel. The purpose of these experiments is to obtain flow-field 

measurements from wind tunnel testing of topographic features to provide 

experimental data with quantified uncertainties for characterization of topographic 

speedup effects and for validation of numerical models. Fabrication and testing of 

topographic models are currently in progress, with fabrication and testing of 

building models planned in FY 2020. In addition to the laboratory experiments, a 

subcontractor to UF will deploy weather stations to obtain full-scale measurements 

of winds in regions of topographic interest in Puerto Rico, to provide information 

for validation of wind tunnel test results and numerical models. The Team is 

currently selecting sites across Puerto Rico to deploy weather stations on existing 

towers, with anemometers at multiple elevations per tower.

The Team is also developing computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models to 

characterize topographic effects on winds. The Team plans to verify CFD 

simulations and validate CFD results against wind tunnel and field measurement

data. These validated CFD models will be used to evaluate and characterize 

topographic speedup effects in Puerto Rico.

(2) Performance of Critical Buildings

The objective of this project is to characterize the performance of critical buildings 

in Hurricane Maria by: (1) documenting failures of structural systems, building 

envelopes, and rooftop equipment, along with the resulting intrusion of wind-driven 

rain, interior damage, and loss of function for a representative sample of hospitals 

and schools; (2) identifying dependencies on lifelines in loss of function; (3) 

characterizing wind loads on building envelopes and rooftop equipment through 

wind tunnel testing for a subset of these hospitals and schools to correlate with 
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observed damage; and (4) evaluating the adequacy of existing selection criteria and 

design requirements for storm shelters.

A contract award to support this project is forthcoming in early FY 20205

. The 

principal goal of the award is for a contractor to document the performance of 

selected critical facilities in Puerto Rico during Hurricane Maria, to include 

hospitals, schools, and storm shelters. NIST will specify which facilities are to be 

evaluated, and the Contractor will provide services to gather information and 

documentation on the following: (1) characteristics of each facility prior to 

Hurricane Maria, (2) damage to the facility caused by Hurricane Maria, and (3) the 

function and operation of the facility during and immediately after Hurricane Maria. 

Recognizing that post-storm repairs have been completed, the evaluations will not 

be limited to simply documenting the current conditions. It is anticipated that 

interviews with facility managers and personnel will be required to document the 

direct and indirect damage caused by Hurricane Maria, as well as the impacts of 

Hurricane Maria on the operation and function of the facility. The building 

characteristics that are most relevant prior to Hurricane Maria are those that 

describe the facilities’ structural and nonstructural components (e.g., type and age 

of roof covering, type of structural system, and type of opening protective systems), 

describe the age of the structure (e.g., date of construction and building code used 

for design), document utility redundancies (e.g., capacity of any existing backup 

generators and emergency water supplies), and summarize mitigation efforts taken 

before Hurricane Maria’s landfall (e.g., sandbagging and anchoring of rooftop 

equipment). The contractor will be asked to collect damage data (e.g., damage to 

the envelope, roofing system, structural system, rooftop equipment, etc.) to these 

facilities to identify any trends in structural performance by occupancy type, 

construction era, and structural system. Finally, the contractor will be expected to 

also collect data on the functionality of the facilities immediately following 

Hurricane Maria’s landfall, including relocation of services and/or building 

occupants, status of availability of lifelines in the days following the storm, and 

hazardous conditions encountered by building occupants due to identified damage.

(3) Public Response to Emergency Communications

The objective of this project is to investigate the role of emergency communications 

in public response for those under imminent threat from Hurricane Maria. This 

project will also investigate the use of communications in disaster response (during 

and immediately after the hurricane event).

A contract award to support this project is forthcoming in early FY 20206

. The 

principal goal of the award is for a contractor to conduct structured surveys and 

open-ended, semi-structured interviews with multiple populations in Puerto Rico. 

The structured surveys shall be conducted with sampled households within four 

emergency management regions (or zones) within Puerto Rico, identified by NIST. 

5 Although outside the FY 2019 reporting period of this report, NIST can report that a contract was awarded to Stantec 

Consulting Services, Inc. on March 3, 2020 to support the Performance of Critical Buildings project.

6 Although outside the FY 2019 reporting period of this report, NIST can report that a contract was awarded to 

Horsley Witten Group, along with subcontractors Eastern Research Group, Issues & Answers, and Albizu University 

in Puerto Rico, on January 6, 2020 to support the Public Response and Emergency Communications project.
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The sampling frame will most likely encompass households located in flood-prone 

regions, based on flood hazard information for Puerto Rico produced by the Federal 

Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), and landslide-prone regions, based on 

the landslide hazard map for Puerto Rico produced by the U.S. Geological Survey. 

The survey will ask households about pre-Hurricane Maria activities and 

perceptions, including previous experience with hurricanes, pre-event risk 

perception, and knowledge of risk zones; the types of emergency information 

sought/received before and during the hurricane; their perceptions of this 

information as well as other environmental and social cues; protective action 

decisions; information needs during and after the event; and health or medical care 

needs after the hurricane. From the survey respondents, NIST will identify a small

sample, with input from the contractor, to participate in follow-up open-ended, 

semi-structured interviews. NIST will also conduct open-ended, semi-structured 

interviews with Commonwealth, regional and/or local emergency managers; 

National Weather Service officials, broadcast meteorologists and other members of 

the media, and others responsible for communication with the public. The goal of 

these interviews is to better understand pre-hurricane preparation and planning; 

situational awareness prior to and during the event; decisions made about 

communicating with the public; and lessons learned that may have led to changes in 

communication-related policies, procedures and/or guidelines.

(4) Characterization of Morbidity and Mortality

The objective of this project is to complete a quantitative morbidity and mortality 

assessment of Puerto Rico, to better understand how damaged buildings and 

supporting infrastructure played a role in the injuries and deaths associated with 

Hurricane Maria. The study results will provide guidance to improve codes, 

standards and inform future approaches to accurately attribute and predict life loss 

due to windstorm building failure(s).

A contract award to support this project is forthcoming in early FY 2020. The 

principal goal of the award is for a Contractor to identify deaths in Puerto Rico 

directly and indirectly related to Hurricane Maria, and more specifically identify 

deaths attributed to building and/or building system failure(s). The contractor will 

collect and merge data on the deaths that occurred up to six months after Hurricane 

Maria made landfall in Puerto Rico. They will develop an integrated database from 

various data sources, which may include the Puerto Rico Vital Registration System,

Disaster Mortuary Operational Response Teams E-Cases records, pathology 

registry records, 911 emergency calls obtained from the Bureau of Police, and 

funeral and burial assistance data from FEMA and the American Red Cross. The 

contractor shall geocode the deaths and submit a text searchable database alongside 

a report documenting the process for merging data sources, as well as the data 

coverage and quality from each source, highlighting the potential added value of 

integration of data from specific sources. Subsequently, the contractor will: analyze 

the integrated database to calculate cause-specific mortality rates adjusted for age 

and gender and compare these to the prior years; examine each broad cause of death 

(i.e. ICD-10 chapters) and specific causes of death typically attributed to hurricanes 

(e.g., drowning, death from a fallen object, etc.) and compare them to previous 

years; calculate age and gender-adjusted cause specific mortality rates for other 
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specific causes of death that are identified as being significantly greater following 

Hurricane Maria (compared to the previous year); identify any significant increases 

in death rates from particular causes between the period after the storm and years 

prior and flag all deaths from those causes in the first two weeks after the storm; 

and identify spatial and temporal clusters of deaths occurring up to six months after 

the storm in study areas identified by NIST staff.

The contractor will conduct verbal autopsies (and possibly clinical panels) to 

determine attribution of deaths that occurred immediately after the storm made 

landfall. The contractor shall develop verbal autopsy (VA) instrument and script 

(instructions to the respondent and interviewer) to be used to determine if a death 

was the direct result of a building and/or building system failure(s), secondary to 

the forces of the hurricane including wind, storm surge, flooding or landslides. The 

purpose of the VA instrument is to determine if a death was the direct or indirect 

result of the building and/or building system failure(s). This means that the person 

died from injury related to the structural failure, damage to the building, or loss 

function of building systems. 

In order to support all of the projects outlined above, Team members traveled to Puerto Rico

on July 23-26, 2019. Members of NIST’s Hurricane Maria study team met individually with 

high-level officials from seven Puerto Rico government departments and agencies in San Juan. 

The sessions were aimed at explaining NIST’s multiple projects under the Hurricane Maria 

program and describing the range of information being requested by NIST. The 5-member 

team met with: Economic Development and Commerce Secretary Manuel Laboy Rivera, 

Education Secretary Eligio Hernandez Perez, Health Secretary Rafael Rodriguez-Mercado, 

Transportation and Public Works Secretary Carlos Contreras Aponte, Telecommunications 

Regulatory Board President Sandra Torres Lopez, Central Office for Recovery, Reconstruction 

and Resiliency Deputy Director Karla Fraguada, and Puerto Rico Aqueduct and Sewer 

Authority Vice President of Strategic and Corporate Planning Ryan Arrieta. The Team also 

met with FEMA and other U.S. government officials during their visit to San Juan.

Updates on the NCST Hurricane Maria Investigation are posted frequently on the NIST 

website7.

2. Summary of Recommendations Made by Teams in Reports Issued Under Section 8 of the 

NCST Act during FY 2019

During FY 2019, NIST did not issue a report under Section 8 of the NCST Act.

3. Actions Taken to Improve Building Safety and Structural Integrity During FY 2019 in 

Response to Reports Issued Under Section 8 of the NCST Act

During FY 2019, NIST did not issue a report under Section 8 of the NCST Act.

a. Actions Related to Report on the NIST World Trade Center Investigation:

7 NIST Hurricane Maria website: https://www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria.
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The following recommendations in the final report of the Collapse of the World Trade Center 

Towers1 were addressed in FY 2019 to improve building safety and structural integrity: 

• In FY 2012, based on a proposal from NIST, a new American Society of Civil Engineers 

(ASCE) Structural Engineering Institute (SEI) Standards Committee was established to 

develop a consensus standard for disproportionate collapse mitigation of building 

structures, which addresses Recommendation #1 from the NIST World Trade Center 

Investigation. This voluntary committee has developed a complete draft of the new 

standard, with substantial contributions from four NIST staff who have informed the 

standard with the results of NIST research. In FY 2019, the committee completed 

revisions to the draft standard in response to comments from the second committee ballot. 

A third committee ballot was also initiated in FY 2019, and a public ballot of the standard 

is planned after the completion of committee balloting.

b. Actions Related to Report on the NIST Joplin Tornado Investigation:

The following recommendations in the NCST Joplin Investigation final report2 were addressed in 

FY 2019 to improve building safety and structural integrity: 

• NIST awarded 4 grants totaling $2.24 million under the NIST Disaster Resilience 2018 

Notice of Funding Opportunity8, supporting development of sensors and methods to collect 

spatiotemporal data on windstorm phenomena, including surface-level winds and near 

ground velocity profiles in tornadoes, hurricanes, thunderstorms and other high wind 

events. This effort directly addresses NIST recommendation #1 (of Recommendations 

Group 1, Tornado Hazard Characteristics and Associated Wind Field) in the final report. 

• NIST completed the methodology for development of tornado hazard maps for use in 

tornado-resistant design of buildings. A workshop for over 100 stakeholders was held on 

May 14, 2019, where the draft methodology and maps were presented. Valuable feedback 

was obtained and used to finalize the methodology. This effort directly addresses NIST 

recommendation #3 (of Recommendations Group 1, Tornado Hazard Characteristics and 

Associated Wind Field) and provides prerequisite technical underpinning for 

recommendations #5 and #6 (of Recommendations Group 2, Performance of Buildings, 

Shelters, Designated Safe Areas, and Lifelines, in the final report). 

• NIST continued to work with the ASCE SEI committee that is developing the new Tornado 

Wind Speed Estimation Standard. The American Meteorological Society (AMS) is also 

engaged in this effort, and the standard will be a joint ASCE/SEI/AMS document when 

completed. The committee, co-chaired by National Oceanic and Atmospheric 

Administration (NOAA) and NIST staff, is developing standardized methods for 

estimating the wind speeds in tornadoes and other severe windstorms, including significant 

improvements to the Enhanced Fujita Scale. During FY 2019, the committee completed 

drafts of two chapters of the new standard and began balloting those chapters. This 

standards development activity directly addresses NIST recommendation #4 and supports 

NIST recommendations #1 and #2 (of Recommendations Group 1, Tornado Hazard 

Characteristics and Associated Wind Field, in the final report).

• NIST is collaborating with the ASCE 7-22 Wind Load Subcommittee's Task Committee on 

8 Disaster Resilience 2018 Notice Of Funding Opportunity (NOFO), available at https://www.nist.gov/el/disasterresilience/disaster-resilience-federal-funding-opportunity-ffo.
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Performance-Based Design for Wind Hazards, addressing NIST recommendation #5 (of 

Recommendations Group 2, Performance of Buildings, Shelters, Designated Safe Areas, 

and Lifelines, in the final report). The Wind Load Subcommittee is creating a 

performance-based design framework for wind hazards, intended for inclusion in the 

ASCE 7-22 Standard, Minimum Design Loads and Associated Criteria for Buildings and 

Other Structures. 

• NIST staff lead the Tornado Task Committee within the ASCE 7 Wind Load 

Subcommittee. This task committee is developing a tornado wind load design 

methodology and standards provisions, incorporating the NIST tornado hazard maps and 

other research to create a new chapter on Tornado Loads for ASCE 7-22. These efforts 

directly address NIST recommendation #6 (of Recommendations Group 2, Performance of 

Buildings, Shelters, Designated Safe Areas, and Lifelines, in the final report). 

• NIST staff lead the committee developing the 2020 edition of the ICC 500 Standard for the 

Design and Construction of Storm Shelters. NIST submitted proposed changes to 

explicitly address certain unique issues relating to design and installation of storm shelters 

in existing buildings, provisions for impact loads due to falling debris, and other changes. 

These efforts directly address NIST recommendation #7a (of Recommendations Group 2, 

Performance of Buildings, Shelters, Designated Safe Areas, and Lifelines, in the final 

report).

• NIST conducted a workshop to identify the opportunities and challenges associated with 

planning, communications, and operations related to public tornado shelters. The 

workshop was held on March 4, 2019, in Oklahoma City, in collaboration with NOAA, 

FEMA, the City of Birmingham (Alabama), and representatives of academia and the 

private sector. These efforts directly address NIST recommendation #8 (of 

Recommendations Group 2, Performance of Buildings, Shelters, Designated Safe Areas, 

and Lifelines, in the final report) as well as recommendations #13 and #16 (of 

Recommendations Group 3, Pattern, Location, and Cause of Fatalities and Injuries, and 

Associated Performance of Emergency Communications Systems and Public Response, in 

the final report).

• NIST staff collaborated on a publication of guidance on short message alert templates for 

280-character Twitter and 360-character Wireless Emergency Alert (WEA) messages9

. 

This effort supports NIST recommendation #13 (of Recommendations Group 3, Pattern, 

Location, and Cause of Fatalities and Injuries, and Associated Performance of Emergency 

Communications Systems and Public Response, in the final report).

• NIST contributed to an annex (Annex K) on community-wide public alerts and warnings in 

disaster response that was incorporated into the latest edition of NFPA 1600 Standard on 

Continuity, Emergency, and Crisis Management (2019). This effort supports NIST 

recommendations #13, #14, and #15 (of Recommendations Group 3, Pattern, Location, and 

Cause of Fatalities and Injuries, and Associated Performance of Emergency 

Communications Systems and Public Response, in the final report).

In addition to the actions described above, NOAA's National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) 

has continued to make significant progress toward the development of new grid-based 

watch/warning hazardous weather forecasting capability for communicating probabilistic threats to 

advance the Forecasting a Continuum of Environmental Threats (FACETs) paradigm. This effort 

9 J. Sutton, E. Kuligowski, Alerts and warnings on short messaging channels: guidance from an expert panel process, 

Nat. Hazards Rev. 20 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)NH.1527-6996.0000324.
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supports NIST recommendation #16 (of Recommendations Group 3, Pattern, Location, and Cause 

of Fatalities and Injuries, and Associated Performance of Emergency Communications Systems 

and Public Response, in the final report).

4. Preliminary Investigations 

NIST uses a screening tool to assess the need for preliminary reconnaissance of disasters and 

failures that includes the following key decision criteria: event consequences (substantial loss of 

life or disabling injury, significant potential for loss of life; hazard intensity; consequences to 

resilience), major challenges in evacuation and/or emergency response, international factors 

(relevance to the United States), and study impacts (safety of team; new knowledge gains; and 

potential impact to existing standards, codes, and guidelines). Thirteen domestic and international 

events were scored in FY 2019, including six windstorms, three earthquakes, two structural 

failures, one wildland-urban interface fire, and one building fire. Three of the thirteen events 

scored in FY 2019 and one of the eleven events scored in FY 2018 met the NIST preliminary 

deployment criteria and resulted in the deployment of teams in FY 2019 to collect preliminary data 

and inform recommendations for further study. NIST deployed teams to collect preliminary data 

in response to four events: (1) Hurricane Florence, (2) Hurricane Michael, (3) Camp Fire, and (4) 

the Cook Inlet Earthquake (Anchorage, AK). 

Hurricane Florence made landfall in North Carolina at approximately 7:30 AM EDT on Friday 

September 14, 2018, as a Category 1 hurricane according to the Saffir Simpson scale with 

maximum 1-min sustained wind speeds of 92 mph and a minimum central pressure of 956 mb10. 

Preliminary reports indicated a modest amount of direct wind related structural damage with 

isolated incidents of inland roof failures at some businesses and inundation of private residences11. 

However, state estimates have Hurricane Florence causing $17 billion in damages to homes, 

businesses, farms and governments in North Carolina; a figure greater than the combined damages 

from Hurricanes Matthew and Floyd12. Some coastal areas of North Carolina experienced 

significant, but highly localized, structural impacts due to coastal inundation from storm surge 

levels exceeding 10 feet. Furthermore, record rainfall caused catastrophic flooding across large 

inland portions of North Carolina and South Carolina13. Despite being a Category 1 hurricane, 

both the storm surge and rainfall amounts were amplified by the anomalously slow forward speed 

of Florence – a characteristic that historical measurements show is becoming more common over 

time. Despite significant warnings from government officials and the media, many residents in 

critical areas did not evacuate14, potentially due to the reduction in the official classification from a 

Category 4 to a Category 1 hurricane as Florence approached the coast; this lack of evacuation 

complicated aspects of emergency operations. At one point, Florence caused more than 900,000 

power outages across portions of the Carolinas. NIST sent a preliminary reconnaissance team to 

collect perishable data on the performance of commercial and residential structures in Lumberton, 

North Carolina (an area similarly impacted by Hurricane Matthew in 2016). Despite its serious 

nature, after preliminary investigation, NIST determined that this event did not meet the criteria 

10 NOAA, 2019, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Florence (AL062018). 11 NWS, 2018. “Hurricane Florence: September 14, 2018”. https://www.weather.gov/ilm/HurricaneFlorence. 12 Stradling, Richard and Abbie Bennett, 2018. “‘Historic’ Hurricane Florence caused more damage than Matthew and 

Floyd combined, governor says”, The News and Observer, October 31, 2018. 

13 NOAA, 2019, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Florence (AL062018). 14 Mindock, Clark, 2018. “Hurricane Florence: Residents ignore evacuation orders in North Carolina ‘hoping God 

protects us’ as storm hits”, Independent, September 13, 2018.
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for a NCST investigation. NIST continues to study the recovery of Lumberton, including 

commercial and residential structures, businesses and households from Hurricanes Matthew and 

Florence under another authority, and in collaboration with the NIST Center of Excellence for 

Risk-Based Community Resilience Planning, headquartered at Colorado State University.

Hurricane Michael made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida, around 1:00 PM EDT on 

Wednesday, October 10, 2018, as a high-end Category 5 storm, with maximum 1-min sustained 

wind speeds of 161 mph and a minimum central pressure of 919 mb15. The storm underwent rapid 

intensification (increase of at least 35 mph sustained winds in a 24-hour period) as it approached 

the Florida panhandle coastline due to above average sea-surface temperatures in the Gulf of 

Mexico. Michael is the most powerful storm to impact the Florida Panhandle in recorded history 

(by wind speed and central pressure) and is considered the third most-powerful hurricane (by 

central pressure) to impact the United States behind the Labor Day Hurricane (1935) and

Hurricane Camille (1969). The storm remained at Category 3 intensity as it crossed into Georgia 

and continued to deliver tropical force winds and significant rainfall as it moved into the Carolinas 

and up the eastern seaboard. The hurricane produced storm surge in the range of 9 to 14 ft in areas 

from Mexico Beach to Apalachee Bay, Florida8. Hurricane Michael caused catastrophic damage 

from strong winds over a wide swath that stretched across much of the Florida panhandle and into 

southeastern Georgia and beyond. Estimates of the hurricane wind speeds indicated that design 

wind speeds were exceeded for a sizable region near Mexico Beach and further inland. The higher 

wind speed combined with storm surge resulted in significant damage to residential and 

commercial buildings, critical facilities, and infrastructure. Initially, over 1.1 million people lost 

power. The storm also caused moderate evacuation challenges and severe emergency response 

challenges in localized areas. NIST deployed a preliminary reconnaissance team to collect 

perishable data on: the performance of residential buildings, commercial buildings, and critical 

facilities, the availability of hazard information and the effectiveness of emergency 

communications in producing protective actions by citizens and explaining the variance observed, 

and loss of building functions stratified by occupancy type (e.g., education and healthcare). 

Despite its serious nature, after preliminary investigation, NIST determined that this event did not 

meet the criteria for an NCST investigation.

The Camp Fire is the deadliest California fire in history which resulted in 86 civilian fatalities and 

three firefighter injuries with more than 52,000 residents forced to evacuate their homes. It was 

also the most destructive fire, destroying or damaging a total of 19,558 structures, equivalent to 

three times the losses of the 2017 Tubbs Fire (5,636 structures) or six times the losses of the 1991 

Oakland Hills Fire (2,900 structures). The Camp Fire started on November 8, 2018, at 6:29 AM 

and consumed 153,336 acres and destroyed 13,696 single residences. The fire spread quickly and 

became very active and intense throughout the day. Extreme conditions including very strong 

winds and very low humidity levels in the area, made containment difficult. The fire was declared 

100 percent contained after 18 days on November 25, 2018. Nine agencies, including California 

Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, Butte County Sheriff Department, Paradise Police 

Department, and the U.S. Forest Service participated in fire suppression activities. Total personnel 

involved in firefighting reached 5,471 with 900 pieces of apparatus (620 engines, 101 fire crews, 

102 dozers, and 77 water tenders). Preliminary estimates indicate that the Camp Fire will be the 

15 NOAA, 2019, National Hurricane Center Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Michael (AL 142019).
12

most destructive fire in California history at a cost of $11-13 Billion16 and $3 Billion for cleaning 

up debris.17 The Camp Fire is expected to become the most destructive Wildland-Urban Interface

fire in the last century. A considerable regional area and population was exposed to the fires, 

causing a large number of deaths, and severe physical damage to non-engineered buildings. The 

fire also caused moderate challenges to evacuations and emergency response. NIST sent a

preliminary reconnaissance team to collect perishable data on: (1) physical damage to residential 

and commercial buildings; (2) the availability of hazard information, decisions made by 

emergency officials, and the effectiveness of emergency communications in producing protective 

actions by residents/tourists and explaining the variance observed; (3) first responder fire 

suppression tactics and operations; (4) the efficacy of recent changes to codes, standards and 

practices; and (5) refining scope and potential study area(s) for a possible subsequent investigation 

that aligns with and advances the engineering and science research already underway at NIST.

Despite its serious nature, after preliminary investigation, NIST determined that this event did not 

meet the criteria for an NCST investigation. NIST continues to study the timeline and impacts of 

the Camp Fire under another authority, and in collaboration with the U.S. Forest Service and CAL 

FIRE.

The Mw 7.1 Cook Inlet Earthquake struck seven miles north of Anchorage, Alaska, at 8:29 AM on 

Friday, November 30, 201818. A tsunami warning was issued for the Cook Inlet and Kenai 

Peninsula but was cancelled shortly afterwards. The earthquake directly affected Anchorage and 

Matanuska-Susitna Boroughs. There were no earthquake-related deaths and only minor, non-lifethreatening injuries reported at the time of evaluating a preliminary deployment to Alaska. The 

earthquake did not result in significant structural damage to buildings; however, there were a 

moderate number of homes that exhibited damage and three damaged schools required structural 

repairs before they can reopen. Damage to nonstructural components (i.e., ceiling assemblies, 

façade, windows, etc.) was observed across multiple sectors. The main airport terminal and 

control tower (west of downtown Anchorage) were evacuated on the day of the earthquake, then 

reopened later that day and flights resumed. The Port of Anchorage was shutdown then reopened 

after the tsunami warning was cancelled and site inspections were completed. Additionally, the 

transportation networks within Anchorage did not sustain noticeable damage, but there are discrete 

locations outside of Anchorage that sustained catastrophic failure and were unusable to motorists. 

Power and water distribution systems suffered moderate damage, but services resumed quickly. 

There were no reports of damages to telecommunication networks, and internet service provides 

were able to maintain services. In early January 2019, NIST sent a preliminary reconnaissance 

team to collect perishable data on: (1) assessing the performance of buildings instrumented with 

strong motion accelerographs, since there are several instrumented structures in Anchorage; (2) 

assessing the performance of buildings that have been retrofitted with fiber reinforced polymers 

(FRP); (3) assessing how minor/moderate structural and moderate/severe nonstructural damage 

affected the immediate occupancy (functional recovery) of buildings, including a review of 

forcible building closures, inspection protocols, and safety tagging mechanisms in place after the 

16 L.A. Biz article on California fire property loss, November 27, 2018:

https://www.bizjournals.com/losangeles/news/2018/11/27/calif-wildfires-property-losses-could-reach-19b.html. 17 U.S. News article on California fire cleanup, December 12, 2018:

https://www.usnews.com/news/best-states/california/articles/2018-12-11/california-wildfires-cleanup-to-cost-at-least3-billion. 18 USGS Earthquake Hazards Program: https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ak20419010/executive.
13

earthquake; and (4) refining scope and potential study area(s) for a possible subsequent 

investigation that aligns with and advances the engineering and science research already underway 

at NIST. Despite its serious nature given the magnitude of the event, after preliminary 

investigation, NIST determined that this event did not meet the criteria for a formal NCST 

investigation. NIST continues to study the reliability of fiber reinforced composite systems in 

resilient infrastructure under another authority.

The remaining events did not meet the criteria for a preliminary deployment for one or more of the 

following reasons: no clear study objectives that would impact standards, codes, and practices; 

unsafe conditions for NIST investigators; no primary authority or in-house expertise of hazard 

type; construction practice and codes for international events are not similar to those used in the 

U.S.; no new lessons would be gained; or minimal impact to building occupants. 

5. Conclusion

The NCST Act authorizes NIST to establish and deploy Teams to investigate building failures that 

result in a substantial loss of life or pose significant potential for loss of life. In FY 2019, NIST 

assessed thirteen events (fires, earthquakes, hurricanes, tornadoes, bomb cyclones, and structural 

failures) using a screening tool that considers: event consequences (substantial loss of life or 

disabling injury; potential for loss of life; hazard intensity; physical damage) and evacuation 

and/or emergency response, international factors (relevance to the United States), and study 

impacts (safety of team; new knowledge gains; and potential impact to existing standards, 

codes, and guidelines). NIST completed four preliminary deployments in FY 2019, and in 

analyzing the data from North Carolina, Florida, California, and Alaska, the NIST Director did 

not establish any new Teams under the NCST Act. NIST continues to further investigate the 

building performance and emergency response and evacuation during Hurricane Maria in Puerto 

Rico and continues to pursue actions related to improving building safety and structural 

integrity that were recommended by previous NCST investigations. NIST has made several 

awards to support the Hazard Characterization project and expects to make several awards in 

FY 2020 to support the Performance of Critical Buildings project, the Public Response to

Emergency Communications project, and the Characterization of Morbidity and Mortality 

project. NIST presented these FY 2019 activities to the NCST Advisory Committee during a 

web-conference meeting November 27, 2018, and one in-person meeting at the Gaithersburg 

campus on September 6, 2019.