NCST Technical Investigation of 

Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico)

Public Response to Emergency 

Communications 

Project Leader: Dr. Katherine J. Johnson

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 8-9, 2022
Background/Motivation

• Rapid intensification of storm leading to short 

evacuation timelines

• Extensive damage and impact from Hurricane 

Maria on Puerto Rico; Irma prior impacts

• Multi-hazard environment: winds, floods, 

storm-surge, landslides

• Societal preference for sheltering in place

• Extended lack of communication among 

emergency and building officials, and the 

public after the storm

• Emergency rescues required in places across 

the island

2

Photos courtesy of NIST
Project Plan: Key Activities

3

Emergency Messages

Information Provider Interviews

Household Survey

Household Interviews
Project Plan: Key Activities

4

Emergency Messages

Qualitative content analysis of messages shared with the 

public before the storm

Information Provider Interviews

Household Survey

Household Interviews
Project Plan: Key Activities

5

Emergency Messages

Qualitative content analysis of messages shared with the 

public before the storm

Information Provider Interviews

Insights on message content, distribution, and effectiveness

Household Survey

Household Interviews
Project Plan: Key Activities

6

Emergency Messages

Qualitative content analysis of messages shared with the 

public before the storm

Information Provider Interviews

Insights on message content, distribution, and effectiveness

Household Survey

Topics: risk awareness, access to info channels and sources, 

and factors for evacuation decision-making

Household Interviews
Project Plan: Key Activities

7

Emergency Messages

Qualitative content analysis of messages shared with the 

public before the storm

Information Provider Interviews

Insights on message content, distribution, and effectiveness

Household Survey

Topics: risk awareness, access to info channels and sources, 

and factors for evacuation decision-making

Household Interviews

More in-depth characterization of topics covered in survey
Progress:

Analysis of Emergency Messages (1/2)

● Messages from September 16-20, 2017, collected 

by NIST personnel

● Qualitative Content Analysis of long and short 

form messages, including from social media, 

using collaborative data analysis software

● All messages translated from Spanish to English 

for analysis

● Since message format and capacity differs, 

theoretical approaches for analyses are tailored 

by message type drawing upon well-established 

theory from emergency communications 

literature

8

Example news article:

Example tweet:
Progress:

Analysis of Emergency Messages (2/2)

Long form message analysis complete: 

• 43 news articles

• 12 press releases

Short form message analysis in-process:

• ~ 140 NOAA messages

Social media analysis in-process: 

• >2500 tweets

9

Example tweet:

as of 5/2/22
Contextualizing Timing of Message Distribution

10
11

% cell sites out of service on 9/14/17 after Hurricane Irma

Contextualizing Geographical Variance of Message 

Distribution

preliminary NIST analysis, created from data from the FCC’s Disaster Information Reporting System
Recent Progress:

Analysis of Information Provider Interviews

• Data collection conducted by contractors between Mar.-Sep. 2021

• Key interviewees determined by NIST

• Information providers interviewed include: mayors, emergency

managers, meteorologists, forecasters and journalists, and

government agency representatives

• (35) hour-long interviews conducted in Spanish or English, per the

preference of the interviewee

• Transcripts processed and transmitted to NIST for analysis, each

between 15-26 pages in length

• Ongoing coding is focused on emphasis of messages transmitted,

audience of message, and partners involved in developing message

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Recent Progress:

Household Survey Data Collection

● Stratified sample of 1,500 households across four study 

regions in-process (representing demographic 

characteristics, flood, and landslide risk)

● 78% complete, primarily in-person, significant

improvement in response rate with weekend fieldwork

● Descriptive statistics and regression analyses will 

identify factors associated with decisions to take 

protection (evacuate), and role of emergency 

communications

● Coordination has begun with statisticians in the NIST

Statistical Engineering Division regarding data analysis

13 progress as of 5/30/22 Photo courtesy of Horsley Witten Group, Inc.
Recent Progress:

Household Interview Data Collection

● Interview given as a phone follow-up with willing

survey respondents who reflect appropriate

geographic distribution

● Data collection in progress: 33% of 100 household

interviews are complete

● Interview questions are focused on barriers to

taking protective action, and unmet information

needs before and during the hurricane

● Qualitative analyses are planned for household

interview transcripts; these data can also be

connected to the survey data for an enhanced

perspective on responses across Puerto Rico

14 progress as of 5/30/22 Photo courtesy of NIST
Next Steps

● Complete Qualitative Content Analysis by Fall 2022

● Complete analysis of Information Provider Interviews Summer 2022

● Receive Household Survey data, expected Summer 2022

● Receive Household Interview data, expected Fall 2022

● Continue report writing for individual data collection efforts; work 

to identify and further assess cross-instrument issues and questions 

requiring additional consideration

● Continue collaboration across HM team to coordinate on key issues

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NCST Technical Investigation of 

Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico)

Public Response to Emergency Communications 

Project Leader: Katherine J. Johnson

Project Team: Emily Walpole (NIST), Emina Herovic (NIST), 

Cameron Busser (PREP Research Associate, University of 

Maryland), Caerwyn Hartten (PREP Research Associate, 

University of Maryland), Joel Cline (NOAA) 

Acknowledgements to past members: Erica Kuligowski (NIST), 

Camila Young (NIST), Lauren Cain (UMD), Genevieve Tan (UMD)

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 8-9, 2022