LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTING

Urban Planning ● Risk Management ● Disaster Recovery

 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Foundational Elements of 

Community Disaster Resilience 

Pre- and Post-Disaster

NIST Community Disaster Resilience Workshop

February 18, 2015
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Grand Forks, North Dakota

• 3

rd largest city in state 

(~55,000 pop. / 20,000 households)

• Area: 20 square miles

• University of North Dakota

• Grand Forks Air Force Base

• Red River of the North 

travels 550 miles 

northward

• Extremely flat terrain, 

830-832 ft. above sea 

level

Prior to 1997:

• History of flooding; flood 

stage reached at 28 feet

• Mostly earthen levees 

could sustain flood 

heights of 49 feet plus 3 

feet of “free board”

• USACE design study 

underway

GF 

AFB

UND
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

1997 Record Snowfall → “Flood Fight” to 52’ → Flood Crest 

54.11’

(J.W. Green, March 1997)

(Steven Norbeck, USGS, 1997)

(Staff Sgt. Charles Morris, US Air Force, April 17, 1997)

(FEMA, 1997)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Grand Forks Flood and Fire

(U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, 1997)

(Minnesota Public Radio, 1997)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

The Aftermath

● Nearly 80% of city inundated

● 90% residents displaced for weeks

● Water began receding after 3 days 

but took nearly 5 weeks

● 9,000 homes damaged; 700 severely 

damaged or destroyed

● 11 downtown buildings and 60 

apartments burned

● 750 commercial units damaged; all 

385 businesses in downtown were 

impacted

● Electricity, water and sewer services 

shut down citywide 

● City Hall, County Courthouse and 

other government buildings damaged
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Key Ingredients of Grand Forks’ Recovery

● Local leadership with political will 

and buy-in for hazard mitigation 

● Strong State and Federal 

partnerships– both before and 

after flood

● Swift and adequate post-disaster 

funding, cooperatively managed

● Resilience in both interim and 

long-term recovery goals and 

specific programs:

– Voluntary acquisition and relocation

– Enhanced flood protection (levee and 

floodwall) system

– Permanent river greenway 

construction

– Downtown revitalization (Geosynthetics, 2009)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

River crested at 49.5 feet on April 1, 2009

(Greg Abner, City of Grand Forks, March 29, 2009)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Grand Forks’ Resilience 

“Costs”

● Losses of $1 to $2 billion, and 

comparable recovery costs much of 

which funded by federal, state, and local 

government

● Social and business displacement, some 

long-term; cultural and historical losses 

as well

● Mitigation strategies took nearly a 

decade to achieve, even with swift, wellfunded, and well-coordinated start to 

recovery

● Negative effects on elected officials, 

staff and population, especially in 

recovery years 2 and 3 (Geosynthetics, 2009)
LAURIE JOHNSON CONSULTING

Urban Planning ● Risk Management ● Disaster Recovery

 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

• Reduce the impact of hazard events

• Return to social functioning more quickly

• Reduce the time and cost of recovery 

• Break the cycle of destruction and recovery

“Resilience means the ability to prepare 

and adapt to changing conditions and 

withstand and recovery rapidly from 

disruptions”

- Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

A. Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs:

5-Stage Model Selfactualization

Esteem Needs

Belongingness and Love 

Needs

Safety Needs

Biological and Physiological Needs
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Community Resilience 

“Holistic” Model People, 

Livelihoods

Governance and 

Community 

Institutions

Economy, Networks and 

Supply Chains

Structures, Infrastructure, and 

Built Environment

Environmental, Ecology, and Physical 

Environment 

(Source: Laurie Johnson 2011)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

“Building Local Capacity and Accelerating 

Progress: Resilience from the Bottom Up”

(Disaster Resilience: A National Imperative, National Academies 

2012)

● Organizing communities, neighborhood, and families to prepare for 

disasters

● Communicating risks, connecting community networks, and promoting a 

culture of resilience

● Engaging the whole community in disaster policy making and planning

● Linking public and private infrastructure performance and interests to 

resilience goals

● Improving public and private infrastructure and essential services 

(such as health and education)

● Adopting and enforcing building codes and standards appropriate to 

existing hazards

● Adopting sound land-use planning practices
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Foundational Element 1: Enable “locally 

meaningful” characterizations of hazards and 

risks.

(Town of Portola Valley, CA, Ground Movement Potential Map)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

California Statewide Mandates for Seismic, 

Wildfire, and Flood Hazard Identification

(My Hazard, California Office of Emergency Services)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Considerable Variability in Hazard 

Mapping/Assessment Across the U.S.

● Hazard knowledge and ability to “map it” varies by peril: 

earthquake (faulting, liquefaction, landslide, strong shaking), 

flooding (riverine, dam/levee failure, storm surge, sea level rise), 

wildfire, landslides/debris flows, hurricane-force winds, tornadoes, 

hail, ice, subsidence, man-made, etc.

● Variations in mapping approach and accounting of uncertainty 

(inventory/identification, hazard/susceptibility, probabilistic, risk) 

● Variations in mapping scales (regional to site-specific)

● Variations in legislative/policy controls: national, state, and local 

mandates requiring specific action versus informational or advisory 

only
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Foundational Element 2: Ensure robust and 

effective integration of hazard information in 

public policy
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Foundational

Policy Pathways 

for for Hazard 

Information

Hazards 

Information

Planning 

Policies

•Comprehensive Plan (Land Use and Hazards/Safety Elements)

•Specific/Area Plans

•Hazard Mitigation Plan

•Emergency/Evacuation Plans

Development 

Regulations

•Zoning and zoning overlay districts

•Subdivision regulations

•Geologic/hazard site investigations

•Hazard-specific setbacks and regulations

•Environmental Review

•Grading ordinances and site development controls

Land and 

Property 

Acquisition

•Building codes

•Hazard-specific provisions

•Retrofit requirements

Building 

Standards

•Design and construction standards

•Locational restrictions

•Capital improvement programs

Critical 

Infrastructure 

and Public 

Facilities 

Policies

•Acquisition of undeveloped land

•Acquisition or transfer of development rights

•Acquisition of damaged properties

•Relocation of buildings

Taxation and 

Fiscal Policies

•Impact fees

•Assessment districts

•Tax breaks/incentives

Information 

Dissemination

•Real estate disclosures

•Professional education/ 

certification 

•Public information/ warnings

Hazard 

Information

(Olshansky and Kartez, “Managing Land Use to Build Resilience”, 

in Cooperating with Nature, 1998)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

States requiring local 

comprehensive plans 

(2009)

(American Planning Association, Hazard Mitigation: Integrating Best Practices into Planning, 2010)

States requiring local 

comprehensive plans 

to address hazards 

(2009)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Coastal State Building Code Effectiveness 

Rating 

(Insurance Institute for Business & Home Safety (IBHS), August 2013) 
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Are There Opportunities to Expand the 

Hazard/Risk Discussion as part of 

(Re)development?

● Where (more precisely) to build?

● What to build?

● Also, address:

– Who pays for detailed 

investigations and hazard mitigation?

– Who ultimately owns the (retained) 

risk and how to ensure their awareness 

and preparedness?

● How to build?
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Windy Hill Open Space Preserve

http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/3/0/3/3/1/ar12702101313303.jpg

Town of Portola Valley, CA
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Source: Delta Plan 2013

● 2009 Delta Reform Act and allocation of 

$700 million annually

● Delta Stewardship Council created in 

legislation to achieve the state mandated 

coequal goals for the Delta: “providing a 

more reliable water supply for California 

and protecting, restoring, and enhancing 

the Delta ecosystem”

● Delta Plan, adopted in 2013, 

comprehensive, long-term management 

plan that included a multi-hazard analysis

● Delta Science program and board – provide 

information for water and environmental 

decision-making in the Bay-Delta system

● California Water Bond $7.5 billion approved 

in November 2014

Delta Stewardship Council/ Delta Plan

Central Valley, CA
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

( Olshansky, Hopkins, & Johnson, Natural Hazards Review, August 2012)

Quantity of 

Capital Services

Time Disaster 

Event

Capital services reaching end of life

New and replacement 

capital services

Post-Disaster Resilience Building Experiences

Time compression means that normal city building processes, in 

all their complexity, now must happen much more quickly 

(100 years → 10 years)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Tohoku Region, Japan

2011 Earthquake and Tsunami 

Rebuilding

(Reconstruction Design Council in Response to the Great East Japan Earthquake, June 2011; translation by K. 

Iuchi)

Breakwater wall Levee 

mitigation

Backup levee

Port and fishing functions Industrial functions Villages, residences

Level 1 Level 2
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Rikuzen Takada City, Japan

← Hillside residential 

relocation areas Raised land for 

commercial/ 

industrial use→

Source: http://www.japan-guide.com/g9/5038_03.jpg, April 2014
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Tohoku Region, Japan

2011 Earthquake and Tsunami Rebuilding 

http://www.reconstruction.go.jp/english/130528_CurrentStatus_PathToward_FINAL.pdf
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Dust cloud rising as building collapse in downtown Christchurch NZ on 2/22/11

Source: Gilly Needham

Canterbury Region, New Zealand

2010-2011 Earthquakes 
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

M7.1(9/4/10); M6.2(2/22/11); M6/M5.6(6/13/11); 

M5.9/M5.8 (12/23/11)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

National Government-led “Red Zone” Buyout of >7,000 Homes and 

Significant Upgrades to Building Standards

http://cera.govt.nz/maps/technical-categories
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

New Orleans, Louisiana

2005 Hurricane Katrina

http://commons.trincoll.edu/edreform/files/2012/05/flooding1.jpg
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Bring New Orleans Back Commission’s 

Proposed Recovery Plan

January 2006

US$8.7 billion program

>128,000 participants (2011)

(Data from 123,917 closings as of July 2009):

>92% repairs, but 9,822 opted to sell home 

(20% of which left state)

In New Orleans, 4,683 homes sold increasing the 

pre-storm blight challenges of many neighborhoods

Sold Homes as a % of Owner-Occupied Households

(Green and Olshansky, 2012)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

New York State

Post-Sandy Community 

Reconstruction Planning 
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

(Source: Haas, Kates, and Bowden, 1977, Reconstruction Following Disaster)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Foundational Element 3. Strengthening governance 

capacity for community resilience and ensuring its 

sustainability.

Governance is “an intended activity undertaken by one or 

more actors seeking to shape, regulate or attempt to 

control human behavior in order to achieve a desired 

collective end.” 

(Jeroen van der Heijden, Governance for Urban Sustainability and Resilience: Responding to Climate 

Change and the Relevance of the Built Environment, 2014)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Three Key Governance Problems for 

Urban Sustainability/Resilience

(Jeroen van der Heijden, Governance for Urban Sustainability and Resilience: Responding to Climate Change and 

the Relevance of the Built Environment, 2014)

● Governments are slow to react to existing problems. It 

often takes a long time to develop and implement 

legislation and regulation and even longer for these to 

take effect.

● Introducing new legislation and regulation is often 

inconsequential. Cities (re)develop too slowly for most 

legislation and regulation to be meaningful.

● A “wicked set of market barriers” stand in the way of 

capitalizing the economic benefits that resilience can 

bring.
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Getting Governance Right

(Jeroen van der Heijden, Governance for Urban Sustainability and Resilience: Responding to Climate Change and 

the Relevance of the Built Environment, 2014)

● Traditional governance – Direct regulatory 

interventions (regulation, subsidies, and taxes)

● Collaborative governance (networks, partnerships, 

and agreements and covenants)

● Voluntary programs and market-driven governance 

(best-of-class benchmarking and certification, 

tripartite financing, green leasing, contests and 

challenges, sustainable procurement)
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

(

Traditional vs. Collaborative 

Governance

(Innes and Booher, Planning with Complexity, 2010)

Traditional Governance Collaborative/Network Governance

• More directive leadership 

model

• Manager is 

organizer/controller.

• Goals are clear, and 

success is attainment of 

the goals. 

• Linear/rational approach to 

planning

• Public participation –

Complies with legal 

requirements, educate the 

public, and obtain public 

support for proposals. 

• More generative leadership model, creating

conditions to bring teams together and help 

build collective capacity to learn about 

problems and find solutions together

• Manager is a mediator and process manager

• Goals are sometimes in conflict or likely to 

change as part of deliberation. Success is 

realization of collective action and capacity to 

adapt to change. 

• Non-linear approach to planning where goals 

may be revisited as part of analysis, policy 

development or implementation

• Public participation – Engage in joint learning 

and deliberation; build public capacity for 

problem-solving and adaptation
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

People, Livelihoods

Governance and Community Institutions

Economy, Networks and Supply Chains

Structures, Infrastructure, and Built Environment

Environmental, Ecology, and Physical Environment 
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Value of the NIST Disaster Resilience 

Framework 

● Framework is a policy tool for defining and implementing a 

robust and defensible approach to resilience building at the 

community-level

● Opportunity to improve community-level hazard and risk 

characterization

● Opportunity to improve land use, building and infrastructure 

standards and practices, adoption and implementation

● Leverages the “Whole Community” – Collaboration on a “Largescale”: multi-disciplinary, multi-governmental, and nongovernmental partnerships and alliances

Requires SUSTAINABILITY (political will, technical and financial resources, collaboration, 

metrics) 
 Laurie Johnson PhD AICP Consulting | Research

Windy Hill Open Space Preserve, Portola Valley, CA

http://activerain.com/image_store/uploads/3/0/3/3/1/ar12702101313303.jpg

Thank you!

Email: laurie@lauriejohnsonconsulting.com

Resilience is formed through the interdependencies that 

evolve from established societal patterns and the work 

of building resilience both pre- and post-disaster