Abstract

The Camp Fire ignited on November 8, 2018 in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada in Butte

County, California. The first 24 hours were characterized by a fast-moving fire with initial

spread driven by high winds up to 22 m/s (50 mi/h) and long-range spotting up to 6.3 km

(3.9 mi) into the community. The fire quickly impacted the communities of Concow,

Paradise, and Magalia. The Camp Fire became the most destructive and deadly fire in

California history, with over 18 000 destroyed structures, 700 damaged structures, and 85

fatalities.

After a preliminary reconnaissance, it was determined that abundant data was available to

support an in-depth case study of this devastating wildland-urban interface (WUI) fire to

increase our understanding of WUI fire spread, fire behavior, evacuation, and structure

response. The methodology guiding the case study and a detailed timeline reconstruction of

the fire progression and fire behavior are presented. Over 2200 observations about fire

spread and behavior were collected during the case study. Subsequent reports will detail

additional aspects of the incident including emergency response and evacuation, and

defensive actions and structure response.

This study has identified that Butte County and the Town of Paradise were well prepared to

respond to a WUI fire, that the Camp Fire grew and spread rapidly and that multiple factors

contributed to the rapid growth and spread of the Camp Fire. Additionally, this study

identified the importance of the wildland fire ignition location relative to the community,

that multiple parcel-level fire spread pathways caused structure ignitions, and that WUI fire

spread impacted the affected communities in multiple ways beyond the destruction of

residential and commercial properties.

NIST Presentation 

Camp Fire: Fire Progression Timeline

Close Captioning

Including data contributions from:

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2135 https://www.nist.gov/el/fire-research-division-73300/

wildland-urban-interface-fire-73305/nist-investigation-california

https://www.captionedtext.com/client/event.asp

x?EventID=4713083&CustomerID=321
The Camp Fire 

February 2021

Alexander Maranghides 

Eric Link

William "Ruddy" Mell (USFS)

Steven Hawks (CALFIRE)

Chris Brown

Bob Vihnanek (USFS)

Cartier Murrill

Erin Ashley (FEMA)

David Hawks (CALFIRE)

Nicole LaRosa (USFA)

Will Brewer (CALFIRE)

Lucy Fox

Becky Turnbull

Nelson Bryner

Paradise, CA

Photo courtesy of CALFIRE, 

used with permission
NIST, Who We Are and What We Do

3

www.nist.gov/el/fire-research-division-73300/wildland-urban-interface-fire-73305

NIST is a Non-Regulatory

Federal Agency

WUI Programmatic Goals: Enhance Life Safety and 

Reduce Fire Losses to Structures and Infrastructure

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
NIST Measurement Science

• Standard reference materials

• Models

• Investigations

• Standards

• Codes

• Best-practice guidelines

• Software decision-tools

• Databases

4

materials models measurements investigations standards

Measurement science supporting the technical basis for:

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
WUI Fire Case Studies

5

San Diego, CA

Amarillo, TX

Colorado Springs, CO

Paradise, CA

• Witch / Guejito Fires (2007)

• Willow Creek / Tanglewood Fires (2011)

• Waldo Canyon Fire (2012) 

• Camp Fire (2018)

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Camp Fire Overview

losses | statistics

6

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Why The Camp Fire?

• Intermix Fire with:

• extreme fire behavior

• size and losses and 

• evacuation of entire town

• Data-rich scene

• NIST technical partnerships in place

• Fully integrated with local officials (CALFIRE)

• Representative of many other similar communities

7

Camp Fire ~ 4× Washington, D.C. area

Chico Paradise

Concow Pulga

Camp Fire ~ 14 % Butte County area

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
• Size: 153 336 acres

• Start: Nov 8, 2018, ~6:30 am

• Dates: Nov 8–25, 2018 (18 days)

• Structures Damaged/Destroyed: 19 531

• Population Displaced: over 50 000

• Fatalities: 85

• Persons Located: 3266

Camp Fire Overview Statistics

8

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5306cc8cf38c4252830a38d467d33728

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Paradise Points of Interest

9

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Camp Fire Structure Losses

Category of Damagea

Affected

(1-9%)

Minor

(10-25%)

Major

(26-50%)

Destroyed 

(>50%) Total

Single Residence 439 47 3 13 696 14 185

Multiple Residence 21 3 1 276 301

Mixed Commercial/Residential 1 1 0 11 13

Non-residential Commercial 76 18 8 528 630

“Other” Minor Structuresb 87 32 13 4286 4418

Infrastructurec 2 0 2 7 11

Total 626 101 27 18 804 19 558

a Damage categories are adopted from Federal Emergency Management Agency preliminary damage assessment 

guidelines.

b “Other” includes uninhabitable structures such as detached garages and sheds > 11 m2 (120 ft2).

c Infrastructure includes communications towers, water supply equipment, and bridges.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 1. 10

90% of all structures damaged or destroyed

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Case Study

goals | contributors | research questions

11

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
The NIST Camp Fire Timeline 

Reconstruction

• Goals: 

• Timeline Reconstruction of the Camp Fire

• Focus on first 24 hours of the fire

• NIST, USFS, FEMA Team was on scene with within eight 

days of ignition

• Timeline Reconstruction effort is led by NIST

• Joint effort with CAL FIRE, the USFS, FEMA, state and local 

jurisdictions including the Town of Paradise and Paradise 

Police Department

12

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
The NIST Camp Fire Case Study

 Report #1: Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance 

 Report #2: Preliminary Data Collected from the 

Camp Fire Reconnaissance 

13

https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2105 https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2128

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
 Report #1: Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance 

 Report #2: Preliminary Data Collected from the 

Camp Fire Reconnaissance 

• Report #3: Fire Progression Timeline

• Report #4: Notification, Evacuation, Temporary 

Refuge Areas, and Burnovers 

• Report #5: Emergency Response and Defensive 

Actions 

• Data Visualization Tool

14

The NIST Camp Fire Case Study Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Camp Fire 

Reconstruction Phase Participants Phase

Total

Field Reconnaissance Alex, Eric, Chris, Cartier, Ruddy, Erin, Steve, Mike, Will, David, DINS, OSFM 10 +

Shadow Team (supporting Field 

Recon.) Nicole C, Becky, Sue, Nelson, Jiann, NIST Legal, NIST Library, Judy, Andrew, Carolyn 10

Field Data Collection Logistics David, Danielle, Colette, Kirk 4

Field Data Collection Alex, Eric, Chris, Cartier, Ruddy, Erin, Steve, Mike, Will, David, DINS, OSFM 10 +

Technical Discussions Alex, Eric, Cartier, Lucy, Becky, Ryan, Bob, Nicole L 7

Data Analysis and Integration Alex, Eric, Chis, Doug 4

Report Writing Alex, Eric, Chris, Ruddy, Steve, Will, Bob, Doug 8

Report Review Karen, Kathy, Jiann, Nelson, NIST Legal, Judy, Howard 7

Publication and Public Affairs Vince, Jonathan, Jennifer 3

Technical Discussion Participants First Responders, et al. 157

Individual Total

192

+ DINS, 

OSFM

Contributors

15

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
16

Contributors –

Technical Discussions

151 Technical Discussions

100 Fire Department

19 Law Enforcement

1 National Weather Service

2 Water Districts

1 Emergency Medical Services

15 Town of Paradise

13 Transportation

THANK YOU! Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Discussion Locations

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 11.

Locations of TDs across 

northern California.

17

American Medical Response–Shasta County NEU–Nevada City Forest Fire Station 

B-Line Butte Regional Transit Nevada County Consolidated Fire District 

BTU Station 35–Paradise Northern California Geographic Area Coordination Center 

BTU Station 62–Harts Mill Olivehurst Fire Department 

BTU Station 63–Oroville Paradise Fire Station 81–Paradise Fire Department 

BTU–Butte Fire Center Paradise Irrigation District 

BTU–Unit Headquarters Paradise Police Department 

Burney Fire District Station 17 Shasta County Fire Station 33–Bella Vista 

Butte County Emergency Command Center Shasta Lake Fire Protection District 

Butte County Fire Safe Council SHU Station 14–Burney 

Butte County Fire Station 33–Upper Ridge SHU Station 22–Shingletown 

Butte County Fire Station 42–North Chico SHU Station 58–Shasta 

Butte County Fire Station 44–South Chico SHU Station 75–Hillcrest 

Butte County Fire Station 55–Bangor South Lake County Fire Prot. Dist. Station 63–Hidden Valley 

Butte County Fire Station 73–Biggs Sutter County Fire Department Station 6–Sutter 

Butte County Fire Station 74–Gridley TGU Station 12–Corning 

Butte County Sheriff’s Office TGU Station 1–Red Bluff 

CAL FIRE–Law Enforcement Division TGU–Elk Creek Station 

California Highway Patrol–Chico TGU–Paskenta Station 

Chico Fire Department–Headquarters Town of Paradise 

Del Oro Water Company Town of Paradise–Department of Public Works 

Grass Valley Emergency Command Center USFS CA-ENF–Pacific Ranger District, Pollock Pines 

Grass Valley Fire Department Station 2 USFS CA-MNF–Stonyford Work Center 

Linda Fire Protection District USFS CA-PNF–Beckwourth Ranger District, Blairsden

LNU–Brooks Forest Fire Station USFS CA-PNF–Challenge Visitor Center, Challenge 

LNU–Konocti Conservation Camp USFS CA-PNF–Feather River Ranger District, Oroville 

Meridian Fire Protection USFS CA-TNF–Truckee Ranger District, Truckee 

National Weather Service USFS CA-TNF–Yuba River Ranger District, Camptonville

NEU Station 61–Loma Rica Wheatland Fire Authority

NEU–Dobbins Forest Fire Station THANK YOU!

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Five Research Questions 

1. How can a fire event of the scale of the Camp Fire be 

documented to facilitate the extraction of information for 

reducing future losses?

2. How did the fire spread to and within Paradise?

3. What were the primary causes of the extensive devastation? 

4. What fire spread pathways caused structural ignitions? 

5. How unique is Paradise as a community at risk of WUI fires?

18

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Methodology

19

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

0. Pre-plan deployment

1. Integrate with IC and DINS

2. Field data collection

3. Technical Discussions

• Fire

• Evacuation / notification

• Defensive actions

4. Data Integration

5. Analysis / Summarization

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Section 7.
Methodology

20

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 14.

Cross-referenced, 

integrated, and 

supplemented 

observations

Increased detail

Reduced uncertainty
Pre-Fire Conditions

wind + drought + topography + fire history

21

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Source: CAL FIRE. 

Overlays by NIST.

Paradise

See inset.

22

Butte County Fire Hazard Severity 

Magalia

Paradise

Concow

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 3.

Majority of area Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
23

Topography

WEST BRANCH 

FEATHER RIVER CANYON

• Significant 

steep canyons

• Localized wind 

alignment

• Difficult access

• Restricted 

egress

gentle (< 15 %)

moderate (15 % to 30 %)

steep (30 % to 60 %)

very steep (60 % to 90 %)

cliff (> 90 %)

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Red Flag Warning and Drought

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 7. 24

• Widespread Red Flag 

Warnings for November 8 

• Wind gust forecast showing 

peak winds exceeding 50 mi/h

a) 1-month b) 6-month c) 1-year

Source: Western Regional Climate Center.

a) b)

Source: NWS Sacramento. Source: NWS Sacramento.

• Dry conditions following 

200 days without precipitation

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Fire History

Historic fire perimeters in 

northern Butte County 

(1911–2018) 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 10. 25

Number of times each 

area has burned.

Number of years 

since the last fire. 

• 42% had never burned 

including all area in/around 

Paradise.

• 17 of 20 prior years had 1 or 

more fires

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Population and Housing Density

Location Pop. Area

km2 (mi2)

Pop. Density

p/km2 (p/mi2)

DINS

Struct. 

Count

Nominal 

Struct. Density 

s/ha (s/ac)

Effective 

Struct. Density 

s/ha (s/ac)

Paradise 26 218 47.5 (18.3) 552 

(1433) 16 520 3.5

(1.4)

6.4

(2.6)

Magalia 11 310 36.3 (14.0) 312 

(808) 3466a 6.4a

(2.6)

8.2

(3.3)

Concow 710 72.0 (27.8) 10 

(26) 684 0.1 

(0.04)

0.6

(0.25)

a Only the fire-impacted southern portion of Magalia was included in structure damage inspection 

data; the entire structure count is unavailable. Area was truncated at the extent of available data.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 2. 26

10+ fold range in effective structure density

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
27

Range of Housing Density in Paradise

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 2.

a) Apple Tree Village 

Mobile Home Park

• ≤ 3 m (10 ft) separation

• 7 structures / acre

b) Lancaster Dr (Bille Rd)

• 3 m (10 ft) separation

• 2.9 structures / acre

c) Valley Ridge Dr

• 8 m (26 ft) separation

• 1.4 structures / acre

d) Round Valley Ranch Rd

• 25 m (82 ft) separation

• 0.3 structures / acre

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Preparedness

Community Preparedness

1. Communities did have multiple programs in place to increase 

awareness of and reduce fire hazards associated with WUI fires.

2. The Town of Paradise did have an emergency notification and 

evacuation plan.

3. Paradise Public Works staff had received training in how to respond 

to a WUI fire.

4. Infrastructure was specifically addressed in pre-fire preparations.

28

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Preparedness

Infrastructure and Firefighting Preparedness

1. Communication battery backup updated day before fire

2. Water systems (PID and Del Oro) at full capacity

3. Fire fighting staffing at increased level (Locally and regionally) – more 

in report #5.

29

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Fire Progression

IC overview | detailed narrative | analysis | maps 

30

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
IC Technical Discussion

06:31 First dispatch by/under power lines, dispatch B2118, P2121, T2107, E2176, E2161, E2167, E2186, E2182, 

E2162, Company 67, WT37, WT67, TD2140, TD2142, BFC2, BFC3. These were all sent up to NOPS.

06:44 First engine confirms fire off Camp Creek Road, 35 mi/h sustained wind.

06:44 ECC places request for 15 additional engines, 4 dozers, 2 water tenders, and 4 strike teams of hand crews.

06:45 Received call at home. BC informed me of the incident. Cool morning 40 °F. Fire appears on Flea 

Mountain camera.

06:54 E2161 request a mandatory evacuation order for Pulga and stage resources at Scooters. 

06:55 ECC called BCSO and requested Mandatory Evacuation order for Pulga.

07:02 Duty Chief calls. IC send him to Concow.

07:10 Duty Chief calls back, reports flames visible from Hwy 149.

07:14 B2118 assumes IC.

07:21 Camp IC – “Pulga has been evacuated. If you could make notifications, request representative to Scooters. 

Have the Sheriff respond to Camelot area for evacuations.”

07:22 Camp IC – “Request evacuation warning for the Concow area – working on exact area and warning/order.”

07:22 ECC called BCSO requesting mandatory evacuation warning for Concow Immediately.

07:26 Camp IC – “shut down Hwy 70 and standby for resource order. Close Hwy 70 from Pentz to Belden.”

07:30 Requests to early up all aircraft - Paradise burning not being considered at that time.

07:32 EVAC warning Pentz Rd west side.

07:33 Resource order for an additional 15 engine strike teams, 15 hand crew strike teams, 10 dozer strike teams, 

with appropriate overhead.

07:40 T2107 needs 5 engine strike teams on Hoffman Rd can’t get ahold of Camp IC – request relay info.

07:44 ECC takes call at 1900 Drayer Dr/Pentz Rd reporting fire on the Paradise side of canyon – reporting 3 

spots.

07:45 At ICP develop incident objectives, box it in: North of Hwy 70, east of Pentz, then west of Pulga and south 

of Empire Creek. Before objectives are announced on the radio, there are spot fires reported outside the 

box.

07:44 IC change over to new IC – for remainder of first day.

07:45 Camp IC – “We are extending the mandatory evac zone to east of Pentz Rd 3, 8, 14 and everything east of 

Pentz Rd and everything north of Hwy 70.”

07:46 ECC calls BCSO requesting the above Evacuation Warning. Not thinking spot fires is a crazy issue, spot 

fires are normal.

Incident Commander Account

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 10. 31

Detailed account of event from 

IC perspective, including:

• Resource requests

• Fire location

• Fire behavior

• Evacuation orders

• Life safety

• Response orders

• Multi-agency coordination

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Fire Progression –Three Levels of Detail

1. Overview in Executive Summary and report 

findings/conclusions (3 pages) 

2. Detailed fire behavior — by focus regions (71 pages)

• Fire progression described by region and by time

• 14 large format maps by time (3 ft x 4 ft)

3. All of the data in Appendix F (113 pages, 8 font)

32

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
33

Fire Timeline Focus – 15 Regions

1. Detailed Narration

2. Tabulated Highlights

• Time

• Description

• General Location

• Information Source(s) 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 23.

Note some regions overlap slightly indicated by relative discoloration.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Concow Fire Progression (1 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 06:25 06:40

First report of vegetation fire via 911. Caller reports fire under electric transmission lines 

within 6 m (20 ft) of tower, estimated size 30 m × 30 m (100 ft ×100 ft). Others call to 

report same fire.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam

911-001-1 

911-002-1 

911-004-1

11/8 06:45

First engine gets sight of well-established fire, reports difficult access in nearly 

inaccessible location. Approximately 15 m/s (35 mi/h) sustained winds. Captain declares 

potential for a major incident.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam TD-028

11/8 06:45 Investigators determined a second power line ignition started another fire which was 

enveloped in the Camp Fire.

Near intersection of Rim Rd 

and Concow Rd VTD-28

11/8 06:45 Fire begins threatening structures in Pulga. Pulga TD-029

11/8 07:10 Engine reports fire is now 80 ha to 120 ha (200 ac to 300 ac) with rapid rate of spread 

toward Concow Reservoir. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:15 Fire spread SW from origin and got established in Flea Valley above Pulga. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Wind pushing fire up slope W, WSW; fire extending up slope and well beyond ridge to W Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Multiple (5) small spot fires (3 m × 3 m, 10 ft × 10 ft) visible on east facing slopes west of 

Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-013

11/8 07:20 Engines attempting access to the north flank of the fire encounter large, a wellestablished spot fire, 0.1 ha to 0.2 ha (0.25 ac to 0.5 ac).

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:25 Spot fires are igniting in Concow and homes start to catch fire. Concow TD-062

11/8 07:30 Engines responding to Concow encounter 6 m × 6 m (20 ft ×20 ft) spot fire burning 

upwind, threatening homes. Concow Rd at Cribbage Ln TD-013

11/8 07:30 First 911 call reporting active fire in yard. Concow 911-037-1

11/8 07:30 Spot fires up on Rim Rd have grown to several acres within 10 min, spreading up slope, 

consuming the draw.

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:40 07:45 Multiple 911 calls report multiple spot fires just below Sawmill Peak, burning on the 

Paradise side. Sawmill Peak 911-048-1 

911-058-1

11/8 07:50 Fire is well-established in Concow. Multiple structures are burning, and fire is impacting 

evacuation. Concow 911-075-1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 34

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Concow Fire Progression (1 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 06:25 06:40

First report of vegetation fire via 911. Caller reports fire under electric transmission lines 

within 6 m (20 ft) of tower, estimated size 30 m × 30 m (100 ft ×100 ft). Others call to 

report same fire.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam

911-001-1 

911-002-1 

911-004-1

11/8 06:45

First engine gets sight of well-established fire, reports difficult access in nearly 

inaccessible location. Approximately 15 m/s (35 mi/h) sustained winds. Captain declares 

potential for a major incident.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam TD-028

11/8 06:45 Investigators determined a second power line ignition started another fire which was 

enveloped in the Camp Fire.

Near intersection of Rim Rd 

and Concow Rd VTD-28

11/8 06:45 Fire begins threatening structures in Pulga. Pulga TD-029

11/8 07:10 Engine reports fire is now 80 ha to 120 ha (200 ac to 300 ac) with rapid rate of spread 

toward Concow Reservoir. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:15 Fire spread SW from origin and got established in Flea Valley above Pulga. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Wind pushing fire up slope W, WSW; fire extending up slope and well beyond ridge to W Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Multiple (5) small spot fires (3 m × 3 m, 10 ft ×10 ft) visible on east facing slopes west of 

Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-013

11/8 07:20 Engines attempting access to the north flank of the fire encounter large, a wellestablished spot fire, 0.1 ha to 0.2 ha (0.25 ac to 0.5 ac).

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:25 Spot fires are igniting in Concow and homes start to catch fire. Concow TD-062

11/8 07:30 Engines responding to Concow encounter 6 m × 6 m (20 ft ×20 ft) spot fire burning 

upwind, threatening homes. Concow Rd at Cribbage Ln TD-013

11/8 07:30 First 911 call reporting active fire in yard. Concow 911-037-1

11/8 07:30 Spot fires up on Rim Rd have grown to several acres within 10 min, spreading up slope, 

consuming the draw.

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:40 07:45 Multiple 911 calls report multiple spot fires just below Sawmill Peak, burning on the 

Paradise side. Sawmill Peak 911-048-1 

911-058-1

11/8 07:50 Fire is well-established in Concow. Multiple structures are burning, and fire is impacting 

evacuation. Concow 911-075-1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 35

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
36

Caltrans Pulga Maintenance Yard, 07:23

• View of the fire looking north from Highway 70.

• Panorama created from video recording.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 24.

Video courtesy of TD-028, 07:23.

Used with permission. 

Composite image by NIST.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Concow Fire Progression (1 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 06:25 06:40

First report of vegetation fire via 911. Caller reports fire under electric transmission lines 

within 6 m (20 ft) of tower, estimated size 30 m × 30 m (100 ft ×100 ft). Others call to 

report same fire.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam

911-001-1 

911-002-1 

911-004-1

11/8 06:45

First engine gets sight of well-established fire, reports difficult access in nearly 

inaccessible location. Approximately 15 m/s (35 mi/h) sustained winds. Captain declares 

potential for a major incident.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam TD-028

11/8 06:45 Investigators determined a second power line ignition started another fire which was 

enveloped in the Camp Fire.

Near intersection of Rim Rd 

and Concow Rd VTD-28

11/8 06:45 Fire begins threatening structures in Pulga. Pulga TD-029

11/8 07:10 Engine reports fire is now 80 ha to 120 ha (200 ac to 300 ac) with rapid rate of spread 

toward Concow Reservoir. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:15 Fire spread SW from origin and got established in Flea Valley above Pulga. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Wind pushing fire up slope W, WSW; fire extending up slope and well beyond ridge to W Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Multiple (5) small spot fires (3 m × 3 m, 10 ft ×10 ft) visible on east facing slopes west of 

Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-013

11/8 07:20 Engines attempting access to the north flank of the fire encounter large, a wellestablished spot fire, 0.1 ha to 0.2 ha (0.25 ac to 0.5 ac).

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:25 Spot fires are igniting in Concow and homes start to catch fire. Concow TD-062

11/8 07:30 Engines responding to Concow encounter 6 m × 6 m (20 ft ×20 ft) spot fire burning 

upwind, threatening homes. Concow Rd at Cribbage Ln TD-013

11/8 07:30 First 911 call reporting active fire in yard. Concow 911-037-1

11/8 07:30 Spot fires up on Rim Rd have grown to several acres within 10 min, spreading up slope, 

consuming the draw.

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:40 07:45 Multiple 911 calls report multiple spot fires just below Sawmill Peak, burning on the 

Paradise side. Sawmill Peak 911-048-1 

911-058-1

11/8 07:50 Fire is well-established in Concow. Multiple structures are burning, and fire is impacting 

evacuation. Concow 911-075-1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 37

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 25.

Video courtesy of TD-005, 07:32. 

Used with permission.

Strong Wind at Rim Road

• Spot fires on ridgetop and into Concow

• Strong east/northeast winds blowing rocks

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

38
Concow Fire Progression (2 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 08:00 08:30 Hoffman Rd burnover event (see Section 10.3). Heavy fire is burning in the Hoffman 

Rd area, blocking the road. Civilian evacuation impacted. Hoffman Rd TD-013

11/8 08:00 08:30

Concow Rd burnover event (see Section 10.3). Flame front too intense to pass, 

burning vehicles in road. Crown, timber, 3 m to 4.5 m (10 ft to 15 ft) brush burning; 18 

m to 24 m (60 ft to 80 ft) flames.

Concow Rd near Cribbage Ln TD-008

11/8 08:15 Intense fire conditions, embers blowing across roadway, trees torching, fire up 

against roadway.

Concow Rd between Hoffman 

Rd and Cribbage Ln TD-110

11/8 08:30 Most structures in Camelot are already burning. Concow TD-062

11/8 08:30 Fire burning the hills on the west side of Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-115

11/8 09:20 10:00 Head of fire is hung up on east side of Concow Reservoir, burning to the north of Ishi 

Tr. Spot fires are igniting in pine and leaf litter 1.6 km (1 mi) ahead of fire front. Concow Rd near Ishi Tr

TD-013 

TD-090

TD-115

11/8 11:00 Fire is intensifying, moving south, burning both sides of Concow Rd near Jeffrey Pine 

Ln.

Concow Rd near Jeffrey Pine 

Ln TD-062

11/8 11:20 11:40

Intense fire is burning on the ridge and in the canyons near Jordan Hill Rd. Flame 

lengths of 30 m to 45 m (100 ft to 150 ft) observed. Engines looking for civilians must 

drive through fire to escape to Concow Rd.

Jordan Hill Rd and Granite 

Ridge Rd

TD-031

TD-062

11/8 12:00 14:00 South flank of the fire reaches the south end of Concow Reservoir in the early 

afternoon. Concow TD-027

11/8 12:00 12:30 At the heel, fire is backing into wind burning in steep terrain in the canyons near the 

origin. Numerous small spots are igniting from rollout down the hill.

West side of Feather River near 

Caltrans yard, CA Hwy 70.

TD-008

TD-028

TD-108

11/8 12:00 23:00 At some point after noon fire crossed Hwy 70. Later at night, began making runs 

along the canyon to the southwest.

CA Hwy 70, 5 km to 8 km (3 mi 

to 5 mi) north of Jarbo Gap

TD-013

TD-028

11/9 00:30 Fire gets well established 1.6 km to 3 km (1 mi to 2 mi) below Station 36. Engines 

drive through fire on Hwy 70 to return to Station 36 for structure prep.

CA Hwy 70, 1.6 km to 3 km (1 

mi to 2 mi) north of Jarbo Gap

TD-028

TD-029

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 39

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Paradise Fire Progression (Pentz Rd)

• Initial impact on Paradise was primarily focused 

along the Pentz Road corridor. 

• Pentz Road is divided into five separate regions:

• Apple View Way to Dean Road,

• Merrill Road to Wagstaff Road,

• Bille Road to Feather River Hospital (FRH),

• FRH to Pearson Road, and

• Pearson Road to Kunkle Reservoir.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Section 9.1.2. 40

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Merrill Road Area

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 07:50 08:10 Multiple 911 calls report widespread spot fires scattered on the east side of Pentz Rd. Merrill Rd, Stark Ln and cross 

streets

911-077-3 

911-088-1 

911-110-1 

911-1026-1 

911-1027-1 

911-1034-2 

911-1040-1 

911-1046-4

11/8 08:10 08:20 The number of spot fires in the area continues to increase. Two spot fires have become wellestablished in grass and manzanita, rapidly spreading and threatening structures.

Merrill Rd, Stark Ln and cross 

streets

TD-020 

TD-022 

TD-061 

911-1049-8 

911-1049-6 

911-1048-2 

911-1053-4

11/8 08:20 08:40 Spot fire in 0.6 m (2 ft) tall grass field continues to spread west and north, consuming field. 

Structures begin igniting along Merrill Rd.

Merrill Rd, Stark Ln and cross 

streets

TD-014

TD-022

TD-043

TD-045

TD-061

TD-143

11/8 08:40 08:50 Fire begins spotting west of Pentz Rd. Mobile Homes in Ridgewood Mobile Home Park are on fire. 

Heavy fire from the field impacts Pentz Rd.

Pentz Rd between Merrill Rd 

and Wagstaff Rd

TD-014

TD-042 

TD-064

TD-067

PPD-02

11/8 09:00

Fire has burned through Ridgewood and Ponderosa Mobile Home Parks and is impacting Pentz 

Rd, threatening evacuating vehicles. Spot fires ignite in the Ponderosa Elementary School parking 

lot.

Pentz Rd and Wagstaff Rd

TD-021

TD-043 

TD-067

TD-085 

PPD-02

PPD-04

11/8 09:10 Fire impacts structures on Chris Ct from the southeast. Sheds and fences are burning, homes are 

igniting. Chris Ct TD-045

11/8 11:05 Buildings at Ponderosa Elementary School are on fire. Ponderosa Elementary School TD-014 

TD-015

11/8 12:15 Portable classroom buildings have burned, and the cafeteria is on fire. Ponderosa Elementary School TD-021

11/8 12:30 Before 12:30, the mobile home parks are burned down, vegetation has burned through, and the 

main fire activity in the area is over. 

Pentz Rd between Merrill Rd 

and Wagstaff Rd TD-043

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 13. 41

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
42

Fire Impacts Pentz Road 08:53

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 26.

a) t=0 s b) t=13 s

c) t=19 s d) t=23 s

e) t=37 s

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:53. 

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:54. 

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:53. 

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:53. 

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:54. 

Used with permission.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
43

Fire Impacts Pentz Road 08:53

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 26.

Video courtesy of Paradise Police Department, 08:53. 

Used with permission.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
44

14 E-size Maps (3 ft × 4 ft)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Section 9.1, Maps 2-14

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
45

Fire Progression Summary 06:15 to 10:45 Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
46

Fire Progression Summary 06:15 to 07:50

Initial spot fires 

along Pentz Rd

Ignition near Pulga

Rapid fire growth in 

steep terrain and 

high winds

Spot fires ignite 

throughout Concow

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Fire front impacts 

Pentz Rd

Spot fires ignite 

on Nunneley Rd

Many spot fires ignite 

deeper into community

Intense fire activity 

continues in Concow

47

Fire Progression Summary 07:50 to 08:40

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
48

Fire Progression Summary 08:40 to 09:45

Fire impacts FRH and 

spreads west of Pentz Rd

Fire impacts 

Skyway

Spot fire ignites in 

Honey Run Canyon Heavy fire continues 

in Concow

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
49

Fire Progression Summary 09:45 to 10:45

Multiple fires are well 

established within the 

center of Paradise

Fire burns over 

evacuees on Skyway

Fire burns over evacuees on 

Pearson, Pentz, and Bille Rds

Fire burns over 

evacuees on Clark Rd

Yellow shows extent 

of fire at 10:45

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Imagery: USGS/NASA Landsat

50

Fire Progression Summary by 10:45

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
51

Fire Progression Summary (Day 1)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 22.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
52

Fire Observations Summary 

Spot Fire

Vegetation Fire

Other/General Fire

Residential Structure Fire

Commercial Structure Fire

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 45.

Pentz Rd Clark Rd Skyway

Observation Count

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Pentz Rd Clark Rd Skyway

Observation Count

53

Fire Observations Summary 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 45.

Spot fires are 

significant fraction 

early in event.

Pentz Rd: Most 

fire observations 

before 10:00.

Initial spot fire 

ignitions at 

Skyway and 

Clark Rd.

Commercial 

structures 

burning early 

afternoon.

General 

progression 

of fire from 

east to west

Fire establishes 

in downtown 

Paradise early 

evening.

Fire progresses west down 

Pearson, Nunneley, Bille Rd 

to Clark Rd.

Skyway (upper and 

lower) is burned over

Heavy fire north of Wagstaff Rd 

(continued burnover of upper 

Skyway) and at Clark Rd.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Burnovers

19 documented 

11 incidents occurred 7:50 am – 10:00 am

54

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Burnovers

Report describes identified:

burnovers, entrapments, and “near misses”

55

Source: ViralHog

Used with permission.

• Unexpectedly caught

• Life-threatening position

• Fire overtakes personnel or 

equipment

• Escape routes or safety zones are 

absent, inadequate, or compromised

• May or may not result in injury

• Possible damage to equipment

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Burnovers

• 19 burnover events were documented

• Occurred throughout the duration of the fire 

• Occurred throughout the fire area 

• Additional burnovers occurred but were not captured 

during the data collection process because:

• no personnel (first responder or civilian) was present to witness the 

event, or

• the event was witnessed by first responder(s) and/or civilian(s), but 

data was not captured because no TD took place with these 

individuals.

56

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
57

Locations of Documented Burnovers

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Identified burnover locations by time of 

occurrence and risk of injury or death.

ID Burnover Location Time Risk of Injury/Death Category

1 Hoffman Rd 07:50 1

2 Concow Rd 07:50 2

3 Chapman Ln 08:30 1

4 Skyway (upper, between Clark Rd and Wagstaff Rd) 08:30 1

5 Windermere Ln 08:35a 1

6 Pentz Rd 08:45 1

7 Pearson Rd 09:15 1

8 Bille Rd 09:25 1

9 Wagstaff Rd 09:30 2

10 Clark Rd / American Way 10:00 2

11 Clark Rd / Airport Rd 10:00 2

12 Skyway (lower, west of Princeton Way) 10:15 2

13 Jordan Hill Rd /Granite Hill Rd 11:30 1

14 Clark Rd / Black Bear Diner 13:10 2

15 Rattlesnake Flats Rd 15:15 1

16 Coutolenc Rd 00:00b 2

17 Chestnut Cir 06:00b 1

18 Ponderosa Way 07:15b 2

19 Concow Fire Station 37 07:15b 1

a Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

b November 9.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 33. 58

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Burnovers Summary (1 of 2)

ID Location

Burnover 

Initiation

Burnover 

Duration

Road Width

(m)

Vegetation 

Setback

(m)

Roadway 

Length 

Affected a (m)

Impacted 

Civilian 

Evacuation

(Y if yes)

Fire Shelter(s) 

Deployed

(Y if yes)

TRA Formed

(Y if yes)

1 Hoffman Rd 07:50 40 min 3 0–2,

more at creek 250 Y Y Y

2 Concow Rd 07:50 70 min 7 0–1 1000 Y

3 Chapman Ln 08:30 n/d b 3 0–3 250

4 Skyway 

(upper) 08:30 360 min 8 0–10 2600

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y

5 Windermere Ln 08:35 c n/d 4 0–2 1100 Y

6 Pentz Rd 08:45 150 min 8 0–1 1300

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y

7 Pearson Rd 09:15 60 min 11 1–3 800

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y Y

8 Bille Rd 09:25 140 min 8 0–2 500

Y 

(street was 

blocked)

Y

9 Wagstaff Rd 09:30 60 min 8 0–3 500 Y

10 Clark Rd / 

American Way 10:00 120 min 11 1–3 700 Y

11 Clark Rd / Airport Rd 10:00 90 min 9 1 1500 Y

59

a The roadway segment affected by each burnover was estimated from the technical discussions.

b No data

c First time of observation. Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 34.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Burnovers Summary (2 of 2)

ID Location

Burnover 

Initiation

Burnover 

Duration

Road 

Width

(m)

Vegetation 

Setback

(m)

Roadway 

Length 

Affected a (m)

Impacted 

Civilian 

Evacuation

(Y if yes)

Fire 

Shelter(s) 

Deployed

(Y if yes)

TRA 

Formed

(Y if yes)

12 Skyway 

(lower) 10:15 90 min 7–20 1–3 1000 Y

13 Jordan Hill Rd /

Granite Hill Rd 11:30 n/d 5 0–4 800 Y

14 Clark Rd / 

Black Bear Diner 13:10 c n/d 23 3 

(structure) 150

15 Rattlesnake Flats Rd 15:15 15 min 3 0 300

16 Coutolenc Rd 00:00

(Nov 9) 120 min 7 0–2 3000 Y

17 Chestnut Cir 06:00 

(Nov 9) n/a 9 0–1 150

18 Ponderosa Way 07:15 

(Nov 9) n/d 12 0–3 400 Y Y

19 Concow Fire Station 37 07:15

(Nov 9) n/d 9 0–3 600 Y

a The roadway segment affected by each burnover was estimated from the technical discussions.

b No data

c First time of observation. Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 34. 60

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
61

Burnovers Appendix B

Hoffman Road Burnover Details

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Hoffman Rd low water crossing

Pre-fire image, Bing Maps

Post-fire image, NIST photo Mar 28, 2019

62

Burnover #1: Hoffman Rd

• Rapid expansion of fire

• Vehicles, vegetation, structures 

burning

• Trees and fire blocking roadway

• Approx. 30 civilians took refuge in creek

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
63

Burnover #4: Upper Skyway

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 10:49 (Nov 9).

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-205, 13:58.

Used with permission.

• Prolonged period of hazardous 

conditions

• Rapid spread of initial spot fires

• Standstill traffic

• Abandoned vehicles burning in 

roadway

• Prevented evacuation from points 

north

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Zero visibility, on foot, 

re-directing traffic

Conditions south of 

hospital after burnover

64

Burnover #6: Pentz Road 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 48.

Video courtesy of TD-090, 10:15.

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of TD-090, 10:50.

Used with permission.

• Widespread spot fires

• Standstill traffic

• Zero visibility

• Burning vegetation, structures, 

and vehicles along roadway

• Multiple civilian rescues

• Shelter-in-place and traffic 

redirection

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
65

Burnover #7: Pearson Road

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 36.

Photo courtesy of TD-122, 09:40.

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-122, 09:40.

Used with permission.

• Standstill traffic

• Intense vegetation fire in 

drainage near Stearns Rd and 

Hilbe Dr

• Igniting vehicles and structures

• Fire engines and dozers assisted 

civilians into temporary refuge 

area

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
66

Burnover #8: Bille Road

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 34.

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 09:04 (Nov 10).

Used with permission.

• Fire impacted standstill traffic

• Evacuees fled on foot, 

abandoning vehicles

• Fire engine at Pentz Rd and 

Bille Rd protected temporary 

refuge area with water spray

• Burning vehicles blocked 

roadway all day

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
General Fire Behavior

effects of wind and terrain | spot fires 

structure ignition pathways | analysis

67

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Impact of Winds, Wildland Fuels 

and Terrain on Fire Behavior

• Firsthand observations on Rim Road at 07:20 on 

November 8 talked of “softball size rocks hitting the 

engine” [TD-005]

• Local winds in the range of 22 m/s to 27 m/s (50 mi/h to 

60 mi/h)

• Values agree with the forecasted ridgetop winds

68

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Impact of Winds, Wildland Fuels 

and Terrain on Fire Behavior

• During the Coutolenc Road burnover at 00:30 on 

November 9

• very strong, gusty winds coming up from the West Branch 

canyon 

• estimates of 22 m/s (50 mi/h) [TD-041, TD-061, TD-209]

• Terrain also directly impacted fire behavior 

• dramatic fire behavior around 18:00 on November 8

• flame lengths of 30 m to 60 m (100 ft to 200 ft) breaking 

out of the Butte Creek Canyon into Wilder Drive [TD-117] 

69

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Impact of Winds, Wildland Fuels 

and Terrain on Fire Behavior

• Terrain restricted or 

slowed down access by 

first responders

• Rim Road to Skyway

• 9.3 km (5.75 mi) straight line

• 40 km (25 mi) and 43 minutes of 

drive time

70

Roads, Water: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles

Annotations: NIST | Elevation: USGS

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
71

Variability in Local Conditions - Smoke

• Visibility is intermittent and wind directions shift 

180°over short distances and time periods.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 48.

a) t = 0 s

x = 0 ft

b) t = 20 s

x = 400 ft

c) t = 46 s

x = 725 ft

d) t = 93 s

x = 1200 ft

Video courtesy of TD-090, 10:52. 

Used with permission. 

Overlays by NIST.

wind from east wind from west

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
72

A Wall of Smoke on Pentz Rd

• Wall of smoke observed on Pentz Rd, going north, at Dry Creek Rd.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 49.

Photo courtesy of TD-115, ~14:00. 

Used with permission.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
73

Early Spot Fires in Paradise

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 51.

Distance into community (km)

Edge of community

12345678

Elevation: USGS | Roads, Water: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles

Map, data points, and overlays by NIST.

Spot Fire Ignitions

07:49 – 08:30 (N=30)

08:30 – 10:30 (N=35)

30 identified spot fires within first 40 minutes (red)

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

5 mi 4 mi 3 mi 2 mi 1 mi
74

Spot Fire Quantity and Timeline

b) Cumulative number of 

spot fires before 10:30 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 50.

a) Distribution of distance into the 

community of the 65 documented 

spot fires

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
75

Structure Ignition Pathways

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 54.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Structure Ignition, Example 1
76

Structure Ignition, Example 1

Structure ignition on Dade Ct in Magalia. Images are two 

minutes apart and show fire spread from surface fuels to fence 

to vegetation to eaves. The combustible fence is estimated to be 

approximately 1.8 m (6 ft) away from the structure.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 53.

a) t = 0 s b) t = 139 s

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 03:20 (Nov 9). 

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 03:22 (Nov 9). 

Used with permission.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
77

Structure Ignition, Example 2 Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles
Displaced 

vehicle

Structure

ignition

Photo courtesy of TD-091, 14:07. 

Used with permission.

Overlays by NIST. Photo by NIST (Dec 1, 2018).

78

Structure Ignition, Example 2 

a) A dozer displaced the 

vehicle to stop fire spread 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 52.

b) Associated evidence of the fire 

ignition and defensive actions 

encountered during NIST damage 

assessments.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
79

Residential Structure Ignition Pathways 

Identified by Direct Observation

Data Source

Time

of Obs. Locationa Building Ignition Pathway

Source to Target 

Distance

m ft

TD-045 09:10 Chris Ct Shed to fence to shed to houseb 2.7 9

TD-005 10:20 Canyon View Dr Bark mulch to wall of house (OSB and vinyl) unknown

TD-060 11:06 Sweetbriar Ln Structure ignition via radiation from neighboring 

structure on fire 11 35

TD-092 13:52 Neal Rd Burning car to shed to house unknown

TD-091 14:06 Lewis Ranch Rd Burning car to side of house 1.5–2.4 5–8

TD-091 14:06 Neal Rd Mulch to garage unknown

TD-015

TD-017

TD-064

PPD

14:37 Skyway Fence to wall of building 2.4 8

TD-100

TD-101 14:53 Pearson Rd Commercial structure to commercial structure roof to eave

0.7 2

TD-036 14:58 Skyway Juniper vegetation to eave against house

TD-108 17:01 Clark Rd Juniper vegetation to house 1.3 4

TD-091 17:09 Neal Rd Burning bark mulch into subfloor vents of house unknown

TD-091 17:23 Sutter Rd 8 m × 4 m (26 ft × 13 ft) shed to house eaves 2.4 8

TD-044 19:00 Valley Ridge Dr Fence to boat to house 2.7–3.6 9–12

TD-205 20:12 Clark Rd Boat on fire to eaves of house 2.5 8

TD-044 22:30 Valley Ridge Dr Woodpile to house 0.3–0.7 1–2

TD-041 03:20c Dade Ct, Magalia Fence/ground fuel to tree to eaves of house 1.5 5

a Location in Paradise unless noted.

b Second shed fire resulted in an explosion that caused a firefighter injury.

c November 9.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 35.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
80

First Responder Comments

Pre-Fire Planning/ Mitigation Count Pre-Fire Hazard Count Fire Behavior Count

Vegetation 24 Vegetation 18 Wind 24

Water 5 Pine needles 4 Conditions 23

TRA 4 Infrastructure 3 Embers 19

Utilities 3 Wind 2 Hazards 11

WUI 2 Clearance 1 Fire history 7

Research 1 Conditions 1 Flames 6

Resources 1 Defensive space 1 Structure 6

Total 40 Egress 1 Topography 5

Embers 1 Vegetation 3

Fences 1 Pine needles 2

Fuel model 1 Total 106

Inspection 1

Regulation 1

Research 1

Structure 1

Visibility 1

Windows 1

Total 401

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 36.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Primary Driving Factors

ignition potential + fuel density + wind/terrain + extent of fire front

81

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Primary Drivers Influencing the Extent 

of Damage and Destruction

1. Fuel ignition potential

2. Density of vegetative and structural fuels 

3. Wind and terrain

4. Extent/size of fire front reaching the communities

82

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Fuel Ignition Potential

• Dry fuels receptive to ignitions from embers

• “100 % ember ignitions” [TD-041, TD-079] 

• Numerous spot fires ignited in fine fuels (pine needles, 

ornamental vegetation) well ahead of the fire front

• In Paradise, ignitions started approximately 30 min to 40 min 

before the arrival of the fire front

83

Fuel receptivity within the communities caused 

the large number of spot fire ignitions. 

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Density of Vegetative and Structural 

Fuels

• Century-long community growth

• Wildland-urban intermix developed within wildland vegetation

• Smaller residential lot sizes

• Locally low structure separation distances

• No fire history within Paradise and Magalia

• Long-term accumulation of vegetative fuels

• Post-fire fuel transition to brush and finer fuels in 

Concow area [TD-008]

84

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Wildland Fire Pre-Plan —

Butte County Fire Department

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 55. 85

Completed 

Fuel Break

Source: CAL FIRE. Used with permission. Overlay by NIST.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
86

Fuel Treatment Around Critical 

Infrastructure (Paradise Irrigation District)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 56.

Fuel treatment and 

reduction conducted 

pre-fire 2018 

Imagery: Google, Landsat/Copernicus. Overlays by NIST.

Note: Imagery captured before completion of fuel treatment

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
87

Fuel Treatment Around Critical 

Infrastructure (Paradise Irrigation District)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 56.

Area of reduced fuel 

loading

Rapid post-fire vegetative growth in 

pre-fire fuel treatment areas

Photo by NIST (June 24, 2019). Photo by NIST (June 24, 2019).

Fuel treatments can reduce exposure but must be maintained

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Wind and Terrain

• Jarbo Gap is known for its 

high winds [TD-003, TD-008]

• Wind event + topography + 

dry fuels

• Rapid fire growth

• Fire could not be contained 

soon after ignition

88

Video courtesy of TD-005, 07:32. 

Used with permission.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Extent/Size of Fire Front Reaching 

the Communities

89

Idealized relationship between 

ignition location, near or far from 

WUI Community, and fire front 

and ember exposures reaching 

the community. 

The wind is directed from left to 

right.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 57.

Ignition near WUI community

Ignition far from WUI community

Critical difference in 

community-scale exposure

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Community WUI Fire Hazard Framework

• WUI fire spread has significant impact on communities well 

beyond the loss of structures:

• community evacuation

• incident response

• WUI Fire Hazard Framework components:

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Appendix C. 90

Standardized comprehensive community pre-fire 

hazard documentation is needed

• Community details 

• Demographics

• Vegetative and structural fuels

• Fire history

• Weather

• Notification / Evacuation

• Critical infrastructure

• Continuity of operations and 

government

• Response

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

community preparedness | pre-fire conditions

fire spread and progression | burnovers | community characteristics

91

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Community Preparedness

F1. Communities did have multiple programs in place to increase 

awareness of and reduce fire hazards associated with WUI fires.

F2. The Town of Paradise did have an emergency notification and 

evacuation plan.

F3. Paradise Public Works staff had received training in how to 

response to a WUI fire.

F4. Infrastructure was specifically addressed in pre-fire preparations.

92

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Pre-Fire Conditions

F5. Dry winds, with recorded gusts at Jarbo Gap exceeding 22 m/s (50 

mi/h) from the northeast, increased fire spread in vegetative and 

structural fuels. 

F6. Steep topographical features including river canyons and creek 

drainages channeled north winds and accelerated fire spread 

through vegetative fuels.

F7. Extremely dry vegetative fuels, associated with over 200 days 

without any significant precipitation, increased the fuel ignition 

potential around and within Concow, Paradise, and Magalia.

F8. Fire spread toward Paradise from Concow was fueled by heavy 

conifer forests with brush understory. At lower elevations oak 

woodlands and savannah grass were the primary fuels.

93

Technical Findings Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Fire Progression

F9. Fire ignited near Pulga and Concow, was pushed by gusty wind 

across steep terrain toward Paradise, swept through Paradise, and 

then spread into Magalia.

F10. Extensive intermediate- and long-range firebrand spotting caused 

multiple ignitions ahead of the main fire line and resulted in 

different exposures to fire conditions. 

F11. The fire travelled and/or spotted more than 11 km (7 mi) downwind 

of the origin to reach Paradise in less than 1.5 hours after ignition.

94

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Fire Progression

F12. Fire consumed a significant fraction of the Town of Paradise over a 

period of 6 hours, between 08:30 and 14:30.

F13. Fire spread down slope through the foothills at an average 1 m/s 

(2.2 mi/h, 180 ch/h) through grassy wildland fuels south and west 

of Paradise.

F14. Fire spread rates for Paradise and Magalia could not be readily 

computed due to extensive spotting fire behavior.

95

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Fire Spread Summary

• Overview in Executive Summary and report 

findings/conclusions (3 pages) 

• Detailed fire behavior, by focus regions in 

body of report (71 pages)

• All the data in Appendix (113 pages, 8 font)

96

E-size Maps – by time

Focus Regions

Tables – by region

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Burnovers

F15. Multiple burnovers occurred during the Camp Fire. 

F16. Burnovers adversely affected pre-planned evacuation routes and 

led to use of Temporary Refuge Areas.

F17. Intense vegetation and structure fires occurred along roadways 

and resulted in multiple road closures which adversely impacted 

response and evacuation activities.

F18. Fire resulted in downed utility poles and associated electrical and 

utility lines along roadways blocked multiple streets and impaired 

access for response and evacuation.

97

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Wildland Fire Ignition Relative to the Community

F19. The ignition of the fire in wildland fuels over 11 km (7 mi) from 

Paradise allowed the fire to grow in intensity and size before 

reaching the affected communities. 

98

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Structure Ignition Pathways

F20. Post-fire field data collection and first responder observations 

identified structure ignition vulnerabilities including structure-tostructure ignition pathways.

F21. Fire spread through Paradise, and subsequently Magalia, was 

fueled by vegetative fuels, including ornamental shrubs, bushes, 

and trees; structural fuels, including homes, garages, detached 

auxiliary buildings, commercial occupancies; and cars, trucks, and 

campers. 

F22. Separation distances between fuel packages within a parcel as 

well as between parcels did not prevent rapid fire spread.

99

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Technical Findings

Community WUI Fire Hazard Evaluation 

Framework

F23. A standardized community wildland-urban interface hazard 

evaluation framework would improve assessment of fire risk for 

communities

100

Community WUI Fire Hazard Evaluation Framework 

Community

Population

Notification

Evacuation

Infrastructure

Fire Fighting Response

Data Types

GIS Layers

Histograms

Other

Data Use

Pre-fire

During Fire

Post Fire

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Appendix C.

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Recommendations

resident and first responder life safety

reduction of structural losses

101

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
Recommendations

R1. Characterize fire behavior that leads to burnovers and quantify burnover severity. This information 

will inform fuel setback guidance for primary egress arteries and provide technical input to 

evacuation plans. (Section 10.3, F15, F16, F17, F18)

R2. Develop technical guidance to quantify parcel level exposures. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R3. Quantify fire spread within parcels with focus on fire exposures. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R4. Quantify exposures from adjacent parcels, specifically from neighboring structures, and develop 

design guidance for structure separation distances. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R5. Develop methodology to connect field-collected ember data, such as ember flux and size 

distribution, to laboratory scales and develop worst case ember exposure criteria. 

(Section 15.2, F7, F10, F11)

R6. Develop spacing/hardening cost benefit relationships for high energy release sources (fences, 

wood piles, sheds, vehicles, RVs, and residences) and target structures (residential and 

commercial). (Section 15.2, F20, F21, F22)

R7. Characterize the relationships among fire history, fuel treatments, and fire behavior. 

(Section 14.2, Section 15.1, F5, F6, F7, F8, F9, F10, F11, F12, F13, F17, F19, F21, F22)

R8. Develop a standardized methodology for assessing the exposures from ornamental vegetation. 

(Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R9. Develop a plant list for vegetation with unacceptably high fire hazard for northern California and 

other locations with WUI fire risks. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

102

Introduction

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Technical 

Findings

Recommendations
103

192 Contributors — THANK YOU!

Office of the State Fire Marshal Law Enforcement Emergency Medical Services

Damage Inspectors Town of Paradise National Weather Service

Data Collectors Transportation Reviewers

Fire Departments Water Districts Public Affairs Office
104

Thank You

NIST Camp Fire Website:

https://www.nist.gov/el/fire-research-division-73300/wildlandurban-interface-fire-73305/nist-investigation-california

Report: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2135

Contact Information:

Alexander Maranghides

alexm@nist.gov

202-567-1634

NIST

Eric Link

eric.link@nist.gov

NIST