NWIRP Research Study of Recovery from

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto 

Rico

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains 

Post-Hurricane Maria

Project Leader: Jennifer Helgeson

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 8-9, 2022
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• Project falls under the NWIRP study of the NIST Hurricane Maria Program

• Supply chain linkages between Puerto Rico and the rest of the U.S. in critical sectors 

(e.g., healthcare) (NAS, 2020)

• Businesses are a critical part of community functions and community-level 

resilience and recovery capacity.

• 99.7 % of businesses in Puerto Rico qualify as “small” (<500 employees at a 

location); 68 % of which have annual reported revenues of $250K or less; 75 % are 

micro-enterprises (less than 10 employees) (SBA, 2018, 2019).

• Project outcomes will support development of methods to assess community-level 

resilience.

• Focus is on empirical relationships between business functions and physical 

systems with regard for social systems and decision-making

National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. 2020. Strengthening Post-Hurricane Supply Chain Resilience: Observations from 

Hurricanes Harvey, Irma, and Maria. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25490.

Importance of small- and medium-sized businesses in the U.S. (Small Business Administration- Office of Advocacy 2018, 2019)

Background and Motivation
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• Regions by ZIP code 

selected as the 

study unit (NWIRP 

Projects)

• Municipios selected 

within the six 

shaded regions 

shown below

– Four common across 

all NIST projects

– Addition of 

Mayagüez and 

Ponce 

(concentration of 

manufacturers)

Background and Motivation: Study Area
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1. Sampling and surveying individual small- and medium-sized enterprises 

(SMEs):

• Small- and medium-size manufacturers (SMMs) and 

• Small- and medium-sized businesses in the retail and services sectors (e.g., 

grocery, clothing, and restaurants)

(Contractor-supported effort, in progress)

2. Sampling and interviewing individual firms:

• Shipping sector

• Transportation sector

• Warehousing sector

(Contractor-supported effort, in progress)

3. Connecting spatial-geographic units – across NWIRP Projects

Project Plan – Overview
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Sample from study 

area(s)

(Non-SMM) 

SMEs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

SMMs

Structured survey

Semi-structured 

survey addition: 

supply chain focus

Shipping and 

Transport Rep(s)

Semi-structured 

interviews 

Inputs to 

model of PR 

supply chain

resilience

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMEs

Recovery 

analysis 

results for 

SMMs

Data Collection Instruments

N=200

N=200

N=30

Project Plan – Study Design
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Risk Profile Personal Choice 

Beliefs

• Perceived Probability 

of event

• Perceived risk to life

• Perceived risk to 

property

• Affective factors

• Risk aversion

• Previous experience

• Knowledge/information

• Social influence

• Social norms

Circumstances

• Self-efficacy

• Perceived control 

Project Plan – Analysis
Structured survey data collection

• 401 total complete survey 

responses (May 27, 2022)

• Mail ahead

• Phone

• Push to web

• Codebook developed

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Field Sample Frame 

(Retail & 

Services)

Sample Frame 

(Manufacturing)

Construction 21 5

Manufacturing 11 13

Retail Trade 72 1

Service 35 4

Wholesale 

Trade

7 5

Services 107 7

Transportation 

& Warehousing

6 0

Other (please 

specify)

114 8

Total 373 43

Recent Progress
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NAICS

Transportation 

Categories

# Target 

Interviews

481/483 Air and Water 

Transportation 4-7

484 Truck Transportation 5-10

488 Support Activities for 

Transportation 7-16

492/493 Couriers and 

Messengers /

Warehousing and 

Storage 4-8

Convenience sample of N=30; Attempts to represent the 

perspectives of all sectors under study rather than 

matching it to the characteristics of the population. 

1. About the Business Operations and Interviewee

2. Hurricane Maria Impact (Vulnerabilities)

3. Preparedness, Response and Recovery per 

Impact Category

4. Facilitating and Limiting Conditions per Impact 

Category

5. Learning per Impact Category

6. Reflections on Preparedness, Recovery Status 

and Resilience

7. Organizational Characteristics (Demographics)

8. Ports’ Resilience Assessment

Interview Guide Sections

Recent Progress
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• Overlay of vulnerability and adaptive capacity of businesses within 

region in respect to community characteristics such as 

human-social, economic, infrastructure-physical, and 

environmental. 

Recent Progress

Popl’n. over 65

Popl’n. with disabilities

Schools

Hospitals

Shelters

Educational levels 

Employment level

Budget of municipal 

 government

Disaster assistance funding

Business establishments

Housing profile

Rural/urban classification

Housing density

Percent outages (DIRS)

Cell sites

Water distribution

Road network

Wind exposure

Landslides

Rainfall

Storm surge

Flooding

Census Popl’n.

Social Vulnerability Index

Army Corps. Of Engineers

Hurricane Maria 

Dashboard

County Business Patterns

Economic Census

FEMA Public Assistance

Report to the Governor

Hurricane Maria Dashboard

PR Planning Board

Army Corps. Of Engineers

FCC

Hurricane Maria Dashboard

USGS

NOAA

FEMA Hazus Report

Hurricane Maria Dashboard
• Preliminary analysis on pilot 

data collected on SMEs 

(summer 2021)

• Small- and medium-sized 

manufacturer and retail surveys 

conducted and codebook 

prepared (to be completed 

summer 2022)

• Shipping and Transportation 

Interview Guide 

• PRA-approved (Apr. 2022)

• IRB-approval (Pending)

• Training planned (Jun. 2022)

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• Complete all data collections

o Account for connections to other NWIRP data 

collections on recovery of social functions and recovery 

of infrastructure

o Finalize sample of shippers and transportation 

companies

o Semi-structured supply chain interviews conducted and 

data delivered to NIST

• Data analysis to be completed

o Quantitative analysis of SME/SMM survey data

o Qualitative coding of interview data

• Draft “Business and Supply Chain Recovery” full chapter for 

NWIRP Report

o Update literature/media review of issues in recovery 

facing SMEs and supply chains following Hurricane Maria and additional interruptions

o Incorporate analyses based in econometric modeling of 

recovery trajectories and SEM modeling of intended 

mitigation and adaptation behavior 

Recent Progress Next Steps 

Recent Progress and Next Steps
NWIRP Research Study of Recovery from

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains 

Post-Hurricane Maria

Project Leader: Jennifer Helgeson

Project Team: Payam Aminpour (PREP Research Associate, Johns Hopkins 

University), Alizabeth Sánchez-López (PREP Research Associate, Johns 

Hopkins University; Puerto Rico-based)

Acknowledgement of past members’ efforts: 

Alfredo Roa-Henriquez, 

Bilal Ayyub, 

Yalda Saadat,

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting, June 8-9, 2022

Sally Saleem