Hurricane Maria NCST 

Investigation Update

Joseph Main

Team Lead, Hurricane Maria NCST

National Institute of Standards and Technology

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting

November 8, 2021

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting – November 8, 2021
NCST Investigation Projects

Hazard Characterization: Document and understand the storm’s wind 

environment and other hazards including storm surge, rainfall, flooding, 

and landslides

Project Leaders: DongHun Yeo and Scott Weaver

Performance of Critical Buildings: Evaluate how critical buildings 

performed (specifically hospitals, schools, and shelters) – including their 

dependence on electricity, water, and other infrastructure

Project Leaders: Joe Main and Marc Levitan

Public Response to Emergency Communications: Document the role 

of emergency communications and the public’s response to those 

communications – focusing on communications during response and 

recovery (during and immediately after the hurricane)

Project Leader: Jo Johnson

Morbidity and Mortality: Better understand how damaged buildings, 

and failures in supporting infrastructure, played a role in injuries and 

deaths associated with the hurricane 

Project Leaders: Judy Mitrani-Reiser and Tom Kirsch
Wind Tunnel Measurements

• Completed wind tunnel testing of generic ridge and 

plateau models with smooth surfaces, incorporating 

surface pressure measurements and Particle Image 

Velocimetry (PIV) flow measurements

• Data processing in progress for PIV measurements, 

with priority given to Mayagüez data, which provided 

incoming flow conditions for building testing

Project Updates: Hazard Characterization

Hospital
Project Updates: Hazard Characterization

Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Modeling

• Completed uncertainty quantification analysis for CFD simulations of flow over generic ridge 

and plateau models

• Developed and implemented a canopy model to capture the effect of tree cover on flow 

profiles, using satellite data to obtain required model parameters with their spatial variation
Field Measurement of Winds

Executed contract with University of Florida and subcontractor 

WeatherFlow for measurements on cell towers:

• Onsite measurements of anemometer orientation to improve 

accuracy, quantify uncertainty in wind direction measurements

• Continuation of data collection for 2nd year (through March 2023)

Rainfall and Flooding Analysis

• Initiated collaboration with Bristol University 

and NCAR for flood modeling of Puerto Rico 

using rainfall observation inputs for HM 

based on NIST analysis

• Analyzed USGS stream gauge data

Project Updates: Hazard Characterization

Horizontal

Anemometer

Vertical

Anemometer
Wind Tunnel Measurements

• Completed design and fabrication of Hospital Bella Vista building model, incorporating 

tubulation for pressure tap measurements and base force balance for resultant force 

measurements

• Completed design and fabrication of area model and surrounding buildings

Project Updates: Critical Buildings
Wind Tunnel Measurements

• Successfully achieved target inflow profiles at 1:100 scale based on PIV measurements from 

1:3100 scale topographic model, using machine-learning to iteratively adjust wind tunnel 

control parameters

Project Updates: Critical Buildings
Wind Tunnel Measurements

• Performed testing over 180° range of wind angles in 10° increments, for cases with and 

without the area model and surrounding buildings

Case 1: Isolated Building Case 2: Building + Local Topography Case 3: Building + Local Topography 

+ Surrounding Buildings

Project Updates: Critical Buildings

Facility Evaluations

• Completed Phase 1 evaluations of the 5 selected hospitals, including quality control review 

and updates to data collection forms in preparation for upcoming interviews

• Completed development of sample selection methodology for shelter facilities and initiated 

Phase 1 evaluation of first selected shelter
Information Provider Interviews (n = 35)

• Interviews completed, transcribed, and translated; data analysis in progress

Emergency Messages

• Qualitative Content Analysis of emergency messages in progress

Household Survey (n = 1500) and Household Interview (n = 100)

• Paperwork Reduction Act approval granted by OMB for Household Interview Instrument 

(June 2021) and Household Survey Instrument (April 2021)

• Soft launch of Household Survey completed (July 2021): a subset of the study area clusters 

were given information about the survey and directed to web or phone

• Following soft launch of the Household Survey, additional training completed for Albizu 

University subcontractors, to include option of in-person survey responses (following strict 

COVID protocols) in addition to web and phone

• Data collection efforts in progress for the household survey and the household interview

Project Updates: Emergency Communications
Verbal Autopsy

• Pilot conducted (March – June 2021): 50 people interviewed by 15 interviewers; each lasted 

about 1 hour

• Post-pilot revisions completed; PRA package approved by OMB (September 2021)

• Recruitment of respondents now underway; new data collectors brought onto the team

Cause-Specific Excess Mortality Analysis

• Completed new draft of cause-specific excess mortality analysis for landfall +14 days and 6 

months, with groupings of death categories using International Classification of Diseases 

(ICD), including population displacement and census scenarios

• Finalized geocoding of places of residence and death from the death certificate data; 

created layers of information for geospatial analysis from the cause-specific analysis results

Project Updates: Morbidity and Mortality
NWIRP Research Projects

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains: Study the recovery of 

small- and medium-sized businesses – in the manufacturing, retail, 

and service sectors – to improve understanding of business 

continuity resilience planning and supply chain continuity

Project Leader: Jenn Helgeson

Recovery of Social Functions: Examine the recovery trajectories 

of sampled schools and hospitals to identify the underlying 

characteristics and conditions associated with recovery of critical 

social functions from Hurricane Maria

Project Leader: Maria Dillard

Impacts to and Recovery of Infrastructure Systems: Evaluate 

the dependencies of building function on infrastructure (power, 

water, and transportation), including cascading loss of function and 

sequencing of recovery activities and the causes of the loss of 

functionality and extended-duration outage of the wireless 

communication system

Project Leader: Ken Harrison
School and Hospital Recovery Surveys and Manufacturing and Retail/Service 

Business Continuity Surveys and Interviews:

• Pilot testing completed and data delivered to NIST

• Analysis of pilot data completed, including cross-project coordination on 

survey questions related to building damage, which will inform NCST project 

on Performance of Critical Buildings

• Finalized post-pilot changes to survey instruments and methods 

• Paperwork Reduction Act approval granted by OMB for all final instruments

• IRB amendment approved for final instruments and methods

New work initiated on remote sensing of vegetation for Recovery of 

Infrastructure Project, providing opportunities for collaboration with NCST 

project on Hazard Characterization

NWIRP Project Updates
• Statisticians in NIST Information Technology Laboratory engaged to support 

data analysis across the program

• Coordination across projects to develop report organization and outlines:

• NCSTAR 4: Main Summary Report with Findings and Recommendations

• NCSTAR 4-1: Hazard Characterization

• NCSTAR 4-2: Performance of Critical Buildings

• NCSTAR 4-3: Public Response to Emergency Communications

• NCSTAR 4-4: Morbidity and Mortality

• Plus supporting sub-reports and appendices

• Preliminary drafts completed for multiple report sections

Program-Level Coordination
Questions?

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Joseph Main

Team Lead

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard

Associate Team Lead

maria.dillard@nist.gov

NCST Technical Investigation of 

Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico)

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting 

– November 8, 2021