Hurricane Maria Program Update

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting

October 19, 2022

Joe Main

Team Lead

Maria Dillard

Associate Team Lead
• NIST is studying Hurricane Maria’s 

effects on Puerto Rico and subsequent 

recovery

• Goal: Recommend improved building 

codes, standards, and practices to 

help communities in Puerto Rico and 

across U.S. to be more resilient

• Launched February 2018; authorized by:

− National Construction Safety Team Act

− National Windstorm Impact Reduction Act

NIST Hurricane Maria Program

Credit: NOAA
• Hazard Exposure: Strong Category 4 

hurricane, peak gusts near 140 mph 

(greater with topographic speedup), 

up to 40” rain, extensive flooding, 

landslides

• Exposed Population: Entire 

Commonwealth (~3.3M people)

• Mortality: Challenges attributing 

hurricane-related deaths; excess 

mortality estimate: 2,975 

• Engineered Buildings: Extensive 

nonstructural damage, rainwater 

intrusion, loss of function

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico
• Emergency Response: Challenges with 

rescues in flooded areas, complicated by 

loss of communications for extended periods

• Infrastructure Systems: Severe physical 

damage and complete/near complete loss of 

function for electrical and communications 

systems presented emergency response and 

recovery challenges 

• Education, Healthcare and Businesses: 

Impacts on recovery due to power loss, nonstructural building damage, generator 

failures, road closures

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico
September 20, 2017

Hurricane Maria struck Puerto Rico – just 13 days after Hurricane 

Irma affected the island

December 2017

NIST preliminary reconnaissance of damage

February 2018 

NIST Director established team to conduct a technical investigation 

under National Construction Safety Team Act

Hurricane Maria and NIST’s Program
Hurricane Maria Program Overview

2 Program Components

NCST Investigation NWIRP* Research Study

7 Technical Projects

Hazard

Characterization

Performance of 

Critical Buildings

Public Response 

to Emergency 

Communications

Morbidity & 

Mortality

Impacts to and Recovery 

of Infrastructure 

Systems

Recovery of Business 

and Supply Chain

Recovery of Social 

Functions

5 Major Contracts

Applied Research Associates University of Florida Stantec Consulting George Washington 

University Horsley Witten Group

Multiple Collaborating and Coordinating Agencies

FEMA NOAA HHS USGS NCDMHP PRDOH PRDOE PRDTOP PRASA PRFAA Many others...

1 Coordinated Program

*National Windstorm Impact Reduction Program
NCST Investigation Projects

Hazard Characterization

Document and understand wind environment and other hazards, 

including storm surge, rainfall, flooding, and landslides

Performance of Critical Buildings

Evaluate how critical buildings performed (hospitals and shelters) –

including dependence on electricity, water, and other infrastructure

Public Response to Emergency Communications

Document role of emergency communications and public’s response 

– focusing on communications during response and recovery

Morbidity and Mortality

Better understand how damaged buildings and failures in supporting 

infrastructure played a role in injuries and deaths
NWIRP Research Projects

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains

Study recovery of small- and medium-sized businesses (in 

manufacturing, retail, and service sectors) and supply chain 

disruption

Recovery of Social Functions

Examine recovery of schools and hospitals, including physical 

repairs, services, and staffing

Impacts to and Recovery of Infrastructure Systems

Evaluate dependencies of building function on infrastructure 

(power, water, and transportation) and causes of the loss of 

functionality and extended-duration outage of the wireless 

communication system
Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) Supported

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Wind Tunnel Testing and 

Field Measurement of Winds

University of Florida

• WeatherFlow, Inc.

• Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Engineering Services to 

Evaluate Critical Building 

Performance

Stantec Consulting Services, Inc.

• Virella Crespo & Associates (Mayagüez)

• University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

• Critical Buildings

Social Science Data Collection Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Morbidity and Mortality 

Assessment

Milken Institute School of Public Health at 

George Washington University

• University of Puerto Rico Graduate School 

of Public Health

• University of Washington

• Morbidity and Mortality

Supporting Contracts
Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) Supported

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Wind Tunnel Testing and 

Field Measurement of Winds

University of Florida

• WeatherFlow, Inc.

• Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Engineering Services to 

Evaluate Critical Building 

Performance

Stantec Consulting Services, Inc.

• Virella Crespo & Associates (Mayagüez)

• University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

• Critical Buildings

Social Science Data Collection Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Morbidity and Mortality 

Assessment

Milken Institute School of Public Health at 

George Washington University

• University of Puerto Rico Graduate School 

of Public Health

• University of Washington

• Morbidity and Mortality

Horsley Witten Group

Supporting Contracts

University of Florida

Stantec Consulting

GW/UPR

Source: Bernardo Hernández Prado

Applied Research Associates
Stakeholder Outreach & Coordination

Federal Departments 

& Agencies

NIST Engineering Laboratory Other NIST Laboratories 

& Offices

Puerto Rico Government 

Agencies, Associations, 

Universities, Companies 

& Individuals

Collaborate

Coordinate

Cooperate
Stakeholder Outreach & Coordination

Federal

Federal Emergency Management Agency

NOAA’s National Weather Service

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers

Nat’l Ctr for Disaster Medicine and Public Health

U.S. Geological Survey

Small Business Administration

Dept of Health & Human Services Collaborate

Coordinate

NIST Engineering Laboratory Cooperate

Disaster & Failure Studies Program

Community Resilience Group

Structures Group

Earthquake Engineering Group

Applied Economics Office

Data, Security, Technology Group

Puerto Rico

Depts of Education, Health, Housing, Transportation &

Public Works, Economic Development & Commerce

PR Ports Authority, PR Energy and Power Authority 

PR Aqueduct & Sewer Authority, Emergency Management

Central Office for Recovery, Reconstruction & Resiliency

Municipalities, universities, businesses, nonprofits

Governor’s Federal Affairs Administration

Resident Commissioner’s Office

Other NIST Units

Public Affairs

Office of Chief Counsel

Congressional & Legislative Affairs

Program Coordination

Management & Organization

Acquisition & Agreements Mgt

Statistical Engineering Division of ITL

Research Protections
Stakeholder and Public Communications

Recent meetings with PR government 

agencies and organizations:

• Resources for Communities and People 

(RCAP) Solutions: June-Sept 2022

• PRASA: June-Aug 2022

Additional outreach for information 

and data requests:

• FEMA

• PR Department of Education

News update and social media posts 

for Hurricane Maria’s 5th anniversary
NCST Investigation Project Updates

Hazard 

Characterization

Critical 

Buildings

Emergency 

Communications

Morbidity & 

Mortality

Completed wind 

tunnel testing of 

topographic models

Completed administrator 

interviews and first phase 

of evaluation work for 

selected shelters

Completed household 

surveys

Completed hospital 

interviews and medical 

records extraction
Hazard Characterization Project

Wind Tunnel Testing

• Completed testing of final topographic model: generic ridge and plateau 

model with rough surface (smooth and terraced models tested previously)

• Received processed velocity probe data from wind flow over Yabucoa and 

Mayagüez topographic models; completed quality control review of data

0.6

0.5

Distance from Hospital along Transect (m) at MS

Cobra Probe Measurement Locations

Terraced Model Surface
Hazard Characterization Project

Computational Fluid Dynamics

• Completed an optimization procedure to select 

model parameters to best match the measured 

approach flow profile in the wind tunnel tests

• Performed comparisons of CFD results with Cobra 

probe measurements from wind tunnel testing

Cobra probe measurements 

x Best-fit CFD model

PRELIMINARY
Hazard Characterization Project

Field Measurements

• Analyzed 18 months of data (March 2021 – Sept 2022), 

including comparisons with wind tunnel and CFD results

• Measured high winds during Hurricane Fiona 

(2 of 12 sensors sustained damage)

Credit for aerial imagery: Google, Maxar Technologies, CNES / Airbus, Landsat / Copernicus

97.7 mph

92.9 mph

77.1 mph
Critical Buildings Project

Evaluation of Shelter Facilities

• Completed Phase 1 evaluations for 5 selected 

shelter facilities (4 schools, 1 non-school):

collection and review of documentation on 

facility characteristics (e.g., building plans) and 

damage assessments

• Completed interviews with administrators at each of 

the 5 selected shelters using previously developed 

interview guide (4 interviews completed since June)

Phase 1: Initial document 

collection and review

Phase 2: Interviews, additional document 

collection and review, field investigation

Interview Guide 

Categories

1. Participant Background

2. Facility Description Prior 

to Hurricane Maria

3. Hazard Exposure and 

Impacts to the Facility

4. Damage to Buildings

5. Function and Operation 

of the Facility

6. Wrap-Up
Data collection is now complete

1522 households surveyed

Survey data collection took 

place from August 2021-

September 2022

Emergency Communications Project

Household Survey

Topics included: prior disaster 

experience, emergency 

communications, evacuation 

decisions, hurricane impacts and 

healthcare needs, social and 

demographics characteristics

Content

Face to face and online surveying

were conducted

In-person surveying far more

effective; 95% responded in

person; Puerto Rican data

collectors were critical to success

Modes

coordinates
Emergency Communication Project

Initial sample size per region (n=380) was 

determined using a 95% Confidence 

Interval and a Margin or Error of 5%.

Surveyed households were in geographic 

clusters. The sampling design had a target of 

10 complete interviews for each of 152 

Census Block Groups.

Selected Blocks Groups included typical 

residential and rural areas as well as areas 

prone to landslide and flooding risks.

Enumerators distributed invitations to 

households following specific Walking 

Rules.

coordinates

Sample Size & Area Probability Sampling

Credit for aerial imagery: Google, Maxar Technologies, CNES / Airbus
Emergency Communications Project

Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

Humacao Region

• Target Sample: 1,500 households across the four study 

regions; stratified for flood risk and landslide risk

• The selection of Block Groups within municipalities 

was checked to ensure appropriate representation of 

socioeconomic status across Puerto Rico

Study Region Disposition

In person Online Total

San Juan 

Region

347 33 380 

Utuado 

Region

365 15 380

Caguas 

Region

360 22 382

Humacao 

Region

374 6 380

Total by 

disposition

1446 76 1522

Preliminary Results 
Morbidity and Mortality Project

Verbal Autopsy and Socio-Environmental Survey

• Additional outreach conducted using a people finder service to 

contact next of kin and key informants of those who died

• 54 additional interviews completed since June for a total of 412 (as of 

9/27/22); this represents approximately 23% of the deaths recorded 

in the first 2 weeks (1,772)

Medical Records and Hospital Functions Review

• Paperwork Reduction Act approval for interviews granted by OMB 

(6/14/22)

• Contractor completed pilot study and delivered report to NIST

• Interviews completed for 6 hospitals and data extraction completed 

for 5 hospitals

Spatial and Temporal Analysis

• Geospatial data on hazards and infrastructure shared by other 

projects to inform cause-specific mortality assessments Source: Bernardo Hernández Prado 

(with permission)
Interviews with 

Infrastructure Managers and 

Operators for power, 

transportation, and water to 

begin Fall 2022

NWIRP Research Project Updates

Infrastructure

Interviews of Shipping and 

Transportation Sector 

Representatives in progress, 

expected to conclude Winter 

2022

Business & Supply Chain

Wave 1 Surveys and 

Interviews of School and 

Hospital Representatives in 

progress, expected to 

conclude in Winter 2022

Schools & Hospitals
Infrastructure Interviews

Interview Respondents Interview Topics

(1) respondent role and experience

(2) time to recover the infrastructure 

system

(3) impediments to the recovery 

process, including disruptions in 

goods and services

(4) goals of and impediments to 

recovery and resilience projects 

planned after Hurricane Maria

(5) anticipated time to recover from a 

future hurricane
Status Total 

Counts

Air and 

Water 

Transport.

Truck 

Transport.

Support 

Activities 

for 

Transport.

Couriers and 

Messengers;

Warehousing 

and Storage

Scheduled 1 0 0 1 0

Completed 11 1 3 6 1

Sample Frame 

Total 76 9 11 46 10

Target 

Completes 30 4 - 7 5 - 10 7 - 16 4 - 8

Interview Topics

Interview Status (9/23/2022)

8) Ports’ Resilience Assessment

7) Organizational Characteristics

6) Reflections on Preparedness, Recovery Status, 

and Resilience

5) Learning

4) Facilitating and Limiting Conditions 

3) Preparedness, Response and Recovery 

2) Hurricane Maria Impacts 

1) Business Operations & Interviewee

Shipping and Transportation Interviews
Survey Status (9/23/2022) (1) a screening and information about 

respondent

(2) impacts and recovery for 

services and resources

(3) physical damage and repair

(4) non-physical impacts

(5) decisions, planning, and 

communication

(6) recovery

Survey Topics

School and Hospital Surveys

Disposition Institution type

Public 

Schools

Private 

Schools Hospitals Total x disposition

Complete 140 74 12 226

In Progress 52 37 8 97

Sample Frame Total 1038 45 323

Target Completes 365 45 410

Target (sample size) for schools determined by a 95% Confidence 

Interval with a 5% Margin of Error; Target for hospitals is a census for the 

study area
Project Integration

• Project leaders held two working sessions to 

identify and prioritize opportunities for sharing of 

datasets across projects, with consideration of:

− spatial and temporal scales required for integration

− timeline for data availability and use

− questions that the integrated analysis could address in 

support of findings and recommendations

• Priority examples of cross-project integration 

include:

− Sharing of geospatial information on hazards and 

infrastructure with the GW contractor team to inform 

cause-specific mortality assessments

− Information on impacts to schools and hospitals from 

the Recovery of Social Functions NWIRP Project surveys 

that could inform the Critical Buildings NCST Project

Peak Gust Wind Speed with Topographic Effects

Preliminary Geospatial Analysis of Mortality

Illustration of data integration example with the 

Hazard Characterization Project and Morbidity and 

Mortality Project
Hurricane Fiona Themes

• Landfall in southwestern Puerto Rico on September 

18 as a Category 1 Hurricane1

• Maximum sustained wind speeds estimated at 

85 mph

• Major rainfall event (> 25in)2

• Infrastructure failures 

• Complete power outage across PR followed by 

widespread and ongoing disruptions3

• At the height, more than 800,000 without water 

service4

• Wireless communications remained mostly 

functional5

• PR Dept. of Health reports 18 confirmed deaths as 

attributed to Hurricane Fiona, 13 more under 

investigation by the PR Dept. of Health6

1https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2022/al07/al072022.update.

09181935.shtml?

2https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/hurricane-fiona-news- 09-19-22/h_000d9fc187a59665ee1d0fd1c15af8a9

3https://www.cnn.com/weather/live-news/hurricane-fiona-news- 09-19-22/h_029110cba468c4af3ca8b87f00f47cfc

4https://www.elnuevodia.com/noticias/locales/notas/acueductos

-dice-que-redujeron-a-48-la-cantidad-de-clientes-sin-servicio-de- agua-potable/

5https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential- actions/2022/09/18/president-joseph-r-biden-jr-approves- puerto-rico-emergency-declaration/

6https://www.salud.gov.pr/vigilancia_Fiona

Credit: NOAA
Impacts of Hurricane Fiona on Current Work

Hurricane Fiona’s impacts on Puerto Rico have posed 

challenges for our projects and Team:

• contract team members without power and water 

• hospitals on generators 

• few schools in normal operating mode 

• infrastructure agencies under great strain

The Team is evaluating opportunities where consideration 

of Hurricane Fiona in future surveys and interviews could 

strengthen our findings and recommendations:

• Effectiveness of post-Maria adaptations and mitigations

• Impact of Hurricane Fiona on long-term recovery of 

infrastructure systems and social functions

Hurricane Fiona made landfall in Puerto Rico 

at 3:20pm on Sunday, September 18, 2022.

Credit: NOAA
Questions?

Joe Main, Ph.D.

Team Lead

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard, Ph.D.

Associate Team Lead

maria.dillard@nist.gov

www.nist.gov/topics/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria