Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 1

Draft Study Plan 

National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST)

Technical Study of Building and Emergency Communications System Performance in 

the Joplin, Missouri, Tornado of May 22, 2011

Goals: 

To study the wind environment and technical conditions that caused fatalities and 

injuries in the May 22, 2011, Joplin, Missouri, tornado, the performance of emergency 

communications systems and public response, and the performance of residential, 

commercial, and critical buildings; designated safe areas in buildings; and lifelines.

To serve as the basis for:

o Potential improvements to design and construction of buildings, designated safe 

areas, and lifeline facilities in tornado-prone regions;

o Potential improvements to guidance for tornado warning systems and 

emergency response procedures;

o Potential revisions to building, fire, and emergency communications codes, 

standards, and practices; and 

o Potential improvements to public safety.

Objectives:

The primary objectives of the NIST technical study of the Joplin tornado are to:

1. Determine the tornado hazard characteristics and associated wind fields in the context 

of historical data.

2. Determine the pattern, location, and cause of fatalities and injuries, and associated 

performance of emergency communications systems and public response.

3. Determine the response of residential, commercial, and critical buildings, including the 

performance of designated safe areas.

4. Determine the performance of lifelines as it relates to the continuity of operations of 

residential, commercial, and critical buildings.

5. Identify, as specifically as possible, areas in current building, fire, and emergency 

communications codes, standards, and practices that warrant revision.

Guiding Principles:

Active, comprehensive, independent, and objective technical study that is fully informed 

by the scientific and engineering facts and phenomena, within the limits of available 

resources.

Open and inclusive process in planning and conducting the study, and in publishing and 

disseminating findings and recommendations. 

Contribute to improving standards, codes, and practices to reduce future risks by

focusing on:

o Fact-finding and analysis of the facts, and

o Validating and verifying existing knowledge.
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 2

Non-technical issues are outside scope of study: no findings of fault of any individual or 

organization.

Maintain ongoing liaison with professional community, public, and local authorities.

Project Team includes world-class technical experts from both within and outside NIST.

Source of Information for Plan Development: 

The NIST technical study plan draws upon many sources of information from within and outside 

NIST, including external experts and groups (i.e., federal, state, and local governments;

industry; and academia), NIST experts in building and fire safety, and the public at large. NIST 

deployed a four-member reconnaissance team on May 24, 2011, two days after the tornado 

struck the City of Joplin. The NIST team conducted a four-day preliminary reconnaissance to 

collect data on the wind environment, fatalities and injuries, building performance and 

emergency communications during the tornado, and fires following the tornado. This plan is 

based on findings from the NIST preliminary reconnaissance and input from the sources

identified above.

Rationale for the Technical Study: 

The EF-5 tornado that struck Joplin on May 22, 2011, was the deadliest single tornado in the 

United States since the beginning of official record keeping in 1950 and the 7th deadliest in US 

history. The death toll currently stands at 1621. The loss of life occurred despite a warning 

time of 24-26 minutes, which is nearly double the National Weather Service (NWS) national 

average warning lead time of approximately 14 minutes2. On the order of 8,000 buildings in 

Joplin were damaged or destroyed3, including a wide range of building types and construction 

types. Insured loss for the Joplin tornado alone has been estimated to be between $1 billion to 

$3 billion4. To provide context for these loss estimates, the average annual property/insured 

loss, in 2005 dollars, is $6 billion for earthquake, $6 billion for windstorms, $5 billion for flood, 

and $13 billion for fire.5This tornado is therefore significant and thus presents a unique 

learning opportunity. 

The results of this study could stimulate major changes in U.S. building codes, standards, and in 

engineering practice to improve life safety and decrease property damage from tornadoes. It 

could also lead to significant changes to codes and standards for emergency communications 

systems. The eventual impact of this study is therefore expected to be the improvement of the 

resilience of buildings, infrastructure, and communities subjected to tornadoes.

Context and Scope of the Technical Study:

The large number of fatalities and buildings destroyed in the Joplin, Missouri (MO), tornado is

not necessarily surprising, as current national standards, codes, and practices do not require 

 

1

National Weather Service (http://www.crh.noaa.gov/sgf/?n=event_2011may22_survey)

2

National Weather Service average for 2008 (http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cfo/program_planning/doc/FY2009%20NOAA's%20NWS%20National%20Performance%20Measures%20-%20Graph%20Update.pdf)

3

US Army Corps of Engineers and Jasper County Geographic Information Services

4

Eqecat, Inc (http://www.eqecat.com/catWatchREV/secureSite/report.cfm?id=321)

5

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 3

buildings and other structures to be built to withstand tornadoes. Although there are 

standards, codes, and guidelines which address the design and construction of tornado shelters 

and tornado safe rooms, their use is not mandatory, and furthermore, they only address life 

safety issues. There is little guidance currently available on the topic of reducing property 

damage in tornadoes.

The plan described in this document is to perform a study of the wind environment and 

technical conditions contributing to the fatalities and injuries, performance of emergency 

communications systems and public response, and performance of buildings and lifelines in the 

May 22, 2011, Joplin, MO, tornado. The primary outcomes of the NIST technical study are to 

provide the technical basis for improved codes, standards, and practices related to tornado 

hazard characterization and tornado-resilient design and construction, emergency 

communications systems, and emergency response. The intent is for the findings and 

recommendations to be introduced into the voluntary consensus process that is used to 

develop U.S. codes and standards. 

Technical Approach: 

The technical approach of the NIST study includes the following major tasks:

Identification of Issues Requiring Technical Study: Review data and information 

collected from the NIST preliminary reconnaissance related to the performance of both 

the building envelope and of the main wind force resistance system, of residential (e.g. 

single-family and multi-family wood frame construction), commercial (e.g. professional 

office, big box retail), and critical or high occupancy (e.g. hospital, schools) buildings; 

review of the wind conditions based on observed damage and available measurements; 

review of performance of designated safe areas and lifeline facilities; review of the 

tornado warning systems, emergency procedures, and patterns, locations and causes of 

fatalities and injuries; review of locations and causes of post-tornado fires.

Data Collection: Obtain data and information from: building officials, fire and 

emergency response officials; local, state, and federal authorities; and the public. Types 

of data to be obtained include: building design documents, records, plans, and 

specifications; construction, maintenance, and operations records; video and 

photographic data; field data; interviews and other oral and written accounts from 

building occupants, families of victims, emergency responders, building operators, and 

other witnesses; emergency response records, including audio communications; 

physical evidence; and other records. To the extent permitted by law, collected data will 

be stored in NIST’s Disaster and Failure Studies Events Data Repository.

Analysis and Comparison of Designs, Codes and Practices for Buildings and Emergency 

Communications Systems: Conduct analysis of and comparisons among various codes, 

standards, and specifications used in the past for the City of Joplin; comparison of asdesigned conditions with model code requirements and with as-built conditions as 

observed in the NIST preliminary reconnaissance; review and analysis of practices used 

for design, construction, and operation.

Technical Findings and Recommendations: Preparation of final reports; peer review by 

established NIST Editorial Review Board; augmented NIST review to include senior 
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 4

management, legal, and public affairs; review of key reports by National Construction 

Safety Team (NCST) Advisory Committee; review of key reports by individual outside 

experts as necessary.

Identification of Needs for Revisions to Codes, Standards, and Practices: Identify 

specific areas in need of revisions to codes, standards, and practices based on findings 

of study. 

Descriptions of the study plan related to the five objectives are outlined in Attachment 1. 

Technical Expertise: 

The NIST technical study will include world-class technical experts from both within and outside 

NIST. Team experts will be drawn from the NIST Engineering Laboratory and from NOAA’s 

National Severe Storm Laboratory, and will be augmented by expert consultants from

academia, practice, and government on an as-needed basis.

Federal Advisory Committee: 

The NCST Advisory Committee will provide advice to the NIST Director on all aspects of the 

study, including scope, approach, work plan, schedule, results, findings, recommendations, and 

interim and final technical reports. The Advisory Committee will provide advice on the 

objectivity, thoroughness, and integrity of the study. Committee meetings will be announced in 

the Federal Register. The NIST Director has appointed individuals to the committee who are 

recognized for distinguished professional service, possess broad technical expertise and 

experience, and have a reputation for independence, objectivity, and impartiality. Members 

represent a balance of the diverse disciplines relevant to the study.

Liaison with the Professional Community, the Public, and Local Authorities: 

NIST will maintain ongoing liaison with the professional community and local stakeholders over 

the course of the study through briefings and presentations. NIST has established a website to 

communicate information related to the study, 

http://www.nist.gov/el/disasterstudies/weather/joplin_tornado_2011.cfm.

Impact and Outcomes:

The NIST technical study aims to establish an understanding of the wind environment and 

technical conditions that caused fatalities and injuries, the performance of emergency 

communications systems and public response, and performance of residential, commercial, and 

critical buildings, including designated safe areas within buildings, and lifelines associated with 

the Joplin, MO, tornado.

The expected outcomes of this study will include findings and recommendations that provide 

the technical basis for:

Assessing tornado hazard probabilities at the local, regional, and national levels;

Potentially improving emergency communications systems and public response to those 

communications; and
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 5

Potentially improving tornado-resilient design and construction of buildings and 

structures, including residential buildings, designated safe areas within buildings, and 

lifeline facilities as related to maintaining building operations. 

The anticipated impacts of the NIST technical study include improved resilience of buildings, 

infrastructure, and communities to tornadoes. These improvements are specifically focused on 

life safety objectives and enhanced performance of buildings during tornadoes to better 

protect building occupants and property. In addition, the study may lead to enhanced 

emergency communications systems and lifeline performance in future disasters. Finally, the 

results of this study will inform future research for the development and dissemination of 

guidance and tools for assessing and reducing vulnerabilities related to tornadoes, and 

producing the technical basis for cost-effective changes in national codes, standards, and 

practices.
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 6

Attachment 1

Description of Study Project

Objective #1: Determine the Tornado Hazard Characteristics and Associated Wind Fields in 

the Context of Historical Data.

Purpose: To obtain, review and analyze information and documents relating to the specific 

characteristics of the Joplin, MO, tornado, and how those characteristics compare to similar 

tornado events in an historical context at the local, regional, and national levels. 

Technical Approach: This objective focuses on collection and analysis of information relevant to 

understanding the tornado hazard. The sources of information will include data on the 

meteorological conditions leading to and during the event, along with historical tornado data at 

the local, regional, and national levels. This information will be supplemented with measured 

wind speeds and estimated wind speeds based on damage, coupled with a tornadic wind field 

model. In addition, hazard, vulnerability, and consequences associated with the Joplin, MO,

tornado compared to other events will be assessed using accumulated information for tornado 

characteristics, buildings and associated damage, and human, economic and property losses. 

Lastly, the current process of rating tornadoes based on damage will be assessed. This objective 

is divided into six tasks as follows:

Task 1 – Review and document the meteorological conditions leading to and during the Joplin, 

MO, tornado. These conditions will include the upper level and synoptic setup, a timeline and 

analysis of WSR-88D radar characteristics, as well a timeline and history of the tornado itself. 

Task 2 – Review both direct and indirect wind speed estimates collected from anemometry and 

those inferred from structural damage. These estimates will then be compared with tornadic 

wind field models to create a map documenting the best estimates of maximum surface wind 

speeds in the tornado.

Task 3 –Assess the Joplin, MO, tornado in a climatological context. Probabilistic approaches to 

assess the tornado hazard at the local, regional, and national levels will be investigated. 

Task 4 – Analysis of the spatial characteristics and consequences of the Joplin, MO, tornado, 

including historical context. This analysis will include a detailed characterization of the total 

affected area, including damage states and a comprehensive estimate of the human, economic 

and property losses by location, along with comparisons with other tornado events of similar 

magnitude and consideration of historical changes in vulnerability due to changes in land use 

patterns, urbanization, and building design and construction.

Task 5 – Assess the practice of rating tornadoes based on observed damage, using the 

Enhanced Fujita (EF) scale. This task will address implementation and usage of the current EF 

scale and appropriateness and sufficiency of the existing damage indicators and degrees of 
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 7

damage used to rate the most intense tornadoes, including its use after the Joplin, MO,

tornado.

Task 6 - Develop findings and issues pertaining to Objective #1.

Task 7 – Develop draft chapter of final report for Objective #1.

Objective #2: Determine the Pattern, Location, and Cause of Fatalities and Injuries, and 

Associated Emergency Communications and Public Response.

Purpose: To determine the behavior and fate of individuals - both those who survived and 

those who did not - by collecting and analyzing information on injuries and fatalities, human

behavior, situation awareness, and emergency communications before and during the Joplin, 

MO, tornado. 

Technical Approach: This objective focuses on the collection and analysis of information 

relevant to the behavior and fate of individuals affected by the tornado. The major sources of 

data for this objective will include information on the location and causes of injuries and 

fatalities and the response of individuals to the tornado, including emergency communications, 

gathered via direct accounts from first responders, survivors and families and friends of victims. 

In addition, archival data on previous tornado events, and national and local codes, standards 

and practices related to U.S.-based tornado warnings will be compared with the Joplin, MO,

tornado event. Finally, pre-event data for Joplin, MO, in relation to tornadoes and the tornado 

warning system will be collected to establish a baseline for evaluating the performance of the 

emergency communications systems on May 22, 2011. This objective is divided into six tasks as 

follows: 

Task 1—Gather baseline information on the response of individuals to the Joplin, MO, tornado

through a comprehensive and interdisciplinary data collection effort, focused on public 

response behavior, situation awareness, emergency communications (including warnings 

provided, interpretation of the warnings, and response to warnings) and pre-tornado 

perceptions and preparation activities. This task will involve the collection of new data from 

people affected by the tornado via direct accounts from survivors and families and friends of 

victims. Interviews will be conducted via telephone and face-to-face to collect this information. 

Inputs and suggestions will be obtained from groups with an interest in the content of the data 

collection effort. Official records will also be obtained regarding the causes and locations of 

injuries and fatalities resulting from the tornado disaster. Additionally, written accounts, 

transcripts of (emergency) communications, published accounts, and other sources of 

communications-related information will be obtained, in coordination with other data 

collection efforts for the study.

Task 2—Collect archival records from prior tornado incidents and community response, 

including oral history data from people who experienced these events. Additionally, national 
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 8

codes, standards, and practices for U.S.-based tornado warnings will be documented as will

local practices in communities surrounding the Joplin, MO, area. These records will be 

compared and contrasted with those from the Joplin, MO, tornado.

Task 3—Document pre-event archival records for Joplin, MO, in relation to tornadoes and the 

tornado warning system. This information includes, but is not limited to, emergency plans, type 

and frequency of practice (weekly) warnings, community-wide training and education, the pretornado emergency communications system and dissemination practices, and census-based 

demographic data for Joplin, MO. This information will provide a baseline for evaluating the 

performance of the emergency communications systems. 

Task 4—Information from third-party sources, such as television interviews and newspaper 

articles, as well as other relevant published material will be analyzed, examined, and assembled 

in a database. 

Task 5—Analyze the data to study the public response to the tornado and/or the emergency 

communications system, documenting how situation awareness, decision-making, and the 

environment influenced the performance of protective action (e.g., sheltering in place) and 

survival (including coordination with Task 3 of Objective 3). A timeline of the incident will be 

developed using the results of these analyses together with other data sources. The 

characteristics of the community-level emergency communications and planning will be 

evaluated, and the design and use of these systems will also be compared with codes, 

standards and practices for other communities in the U.S. The observed public response data 

will be compared with previous tornado incidents in this community as well as others in the 

U.S. The results of the analyses will be reviewed in the context of public protection in the event 

of a tornado.

Task 6 - Develop findings and issues pertaining to Objective #2.

Task 7—Develop draft chapter of final report for Objective #2.

Objective #3: Determine the Response of Residential, Commercial, and Critical Buildings, 

Including the Performance of Designated Safe Areas.

Purpose: To obtain, review and analyze information and documents relating to the design, 

construction, and performance of single and multi-family residential, commercial, and critical 

buildings, including designated safe areas, affected by the Joplin, MO, tornado, and identify

technical issues for development and/or revisions of codes, standards, and practices pertaining 

to designing for tornadoes.
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 9

Technical Approach: This objective focuses on acquiring, reviewing, and analyzing information 

relevant to the design, construction, and performance of buildings that sustained damage 

during the Joplin, MO, tornado, including both the building envelopes and the structural 

systems. The representative buildings evaluated in this study include reinforced concrete 

frame construction, steel frame construction, precast concrete wall and concrete masonry wall 

constructions, as well as single- and multi-family wood frame constructions. By use, the 

buildings include hospital, fire station, police station, school, medical and commercial office, 

large retail, nursing home, single family home, and lifelines. The performance of these 

buildings is characterized by the observed damage they sustained and related to the 

environmental conditions they were exposed to during the tornado. The building design and 

actual construction are compared with model code requirements to assess the design, 

construction practice, and expected performance, and to identify areas in the current model 

building codes, standards, and practices that might warrant revisions. This objective is divided 

into five tasks as follows:

Task 1 – Collect, review, and summarize field data on the performance of critical, commercial, 

and residential buildings that were surveyed by the NIST team in the affected areas in Joplin, 

MO, during the preliminary reconnaissance. Based on field data and observations, and in 

coordination with objective #1, establish the environmental conditions that affected these 

buildings and develop failure hypothesis for each of the buildings. 

Task 2 – Obtain and review design drawings (architectural and structural) of the select 

buildings. Compare designs with field observations to assess consistency between design and 

actual construction practice. Combine design information with field observations to refine the

failure hypothesis for each building.

Task 3 – Review the performance of designated safe areas within buildings, including shelters, 

safe rooms, and areas of buildings used for refuge from the tornado, in coordination with Task 

5 of Objective 2.

Task 4 – Obtain, review, and evaluate appropriate model building code and standards

requirements for both building envelopes and main wind force resistance systems of the select 

buildings. Assess building performance based on observed damage relative to model code 

requirements.

Task 5 – Develop findings and issues pertaining to Objective #3.

Task 6 – Develop draft chapter of final report for Objective #3.

Objective #4: Determine the Performance of Lifelines as it Relates to the Continuity of 

Operations of Residential, Commercial, and Critical Buildings.
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 10

Purpose: To obtain, review and analyze information and documents relating to the 

performance of lifelines that support continuity of operations for different buildings and 

facilities in the Joplin, MO, tornado. 

Technical Approach: This objective focuses on gathering and analyzing information relevant to 

lifeline performance. The major sources of information will include data on the timelines 

associated with disruption and resumption of power, water, sewer and gas systems over the 

course of the event. This information will be supplemented with information regarding the 

building type and performance to evaluate system robustness. In addition, assessment of backup systems (e.g., generators) that support continuous operation of buildings, if applicable, will 

be carried out. The impacts of fires following the tornado will also be studied. This objective is 

divided into five tasks as follows:

Task 1 – Gather information on lifeline systems and facilities that support building operations in 

their pre-storm condition.

Task 2 – Evaluate the performance and timelines from disruption to restoration of service of 

lifelines, including power, water, sewer and gas systems. Using the timeline information in 

addition to building classification (i.e., critical, commercial, residential) and associated damage, 

assess the robustness of the systems during the Joplin, MO, tornado event. 

Task 3 – Evaluate the performance of back-up power systems regarding location and protective 

enclosures relative to buildings, areas serviced within buildings, and operations and 

maintenance procedures.

Task 4 – Collect data on and assess the causes and extent of building fires resulting from the 

tornado within the tornado damage path.

Task 5 - Develop findings and issues pertaining to Objective #4.

Task 6 – Develop draft chapter of final report for Objective #4.

Objective #5: Identify, as Specifically as Possible, Areas in Current Model Building, Fire, and 

Emergency Communications Codes, Standards, and Practices that Warrant Revision.

Purpose: To make recommendations for potential improvements to model codes, standards, 

and practices, and/or further research based on findings from this study of the Joplin, MO,

tornado.

Technical Approach: Based on the results of the studies for Objectives 1-4, make

recommendations for potential changes to existing model codes, standards and practices, and, 
Draft Joplin Tornado Study Plan 11/04/2011 11

if appropriate, recommendations for new codes and/or standards, including use of 

performance-based approaches. This objective is divided into two tasks as follows:

Task 1 – Evaluate the results of the studies conducted for Objectives 1-4 with regard to 

potential improvements needed in model building, fire, and emergency communications codes, 

standards, and practices, and/or further research. Make recommendations for potential 

changes to these codes, standards, and practices to increase tornado resilience of buildings, 

lifelines, and communities.

Task 2 – Develop draft chapter of final report for Objective #5.