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Case: 1:20-cv-04028 Document #: 26-5 Filed: 10/02/20 Page 1 of 4 PageID #:242
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Healthcare

I write about clinical medicine, innovation in healthcare, and health policy.

Coronavirus & Volatility In The Oil

Markets: An Endless Cycle

EDITORS' PICK | 628 views | Jun 24, 2020, 02:56pm EDT

Sai Balasubramanian, J.D. Contributor

Earlier this year, amidst the chaos created by the rampant spread of coronavirus

throughout the world, many countries also started to experience financial turmoil,

potentially due to strict economic shutdowns. To add insult to injury, April presented a

new conundrum for many countries: oil prices plummeted to historic lows, falling into

negative territory for the first time in history. This meant that oil producers would

actually have to pay buyers and traders to take oil from them, in order to mitigate

storage issues. Since then, partly due to agreements reached between larger oil

producers such as Russia, OPEC, etc., oil prices are slowly starting to recover.

An interesting corollary to the volatility in this market is its relationship to Covid-19.

Though not obvious at first sight, the global pandemic has contributed to volatility in

the oil markets, and vice-versa— creating a self-propagating loop. For one thing, the

travel industry worldwide has been severely restricted for the majority of the year thus

far, with airlines, cruise ships, and other travel services largely grounded. Furthermore,

for nearly 3 months, most countries have gone into domestic lock-downs, entailing less

road traffic and travel within countries, let alone across borders. All of these factors

have likely caused a drop in demand for fuel, thus leading to an oversupply which

naturally deflates prices.

Needless to say, these issues likely won’t be resolved anytime soon. Much of the recent

optimism around recovering and increasing demand in the oil market has been

centered on larger consumers easing lock-down restrictions in light of more promising

control of coronavirus infections. These include countries like China, India, and the

USA. However, these very countries are now facing concerns of a coronavirus

resurgence. China is quickly hoping to quell a possible second wave of infections, while

other countries are still trying to “flatten the curve” of their initial breakouts. However,

should infection numbers continue to rise, governments will likely be forced to resume

strict lock-down measures once-again, and the danger to oil demand will resurface.

BEIJING, CHINA. June 23, 2020. Community residents line up for nucleic acid testing. PHOTOGRAPH BY ... [+] BARCROFT

MEDIA VIA GETTY IMAGES

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Conversely, just as oil volatility may be affected by the spread of coronavirus, the

market ramifications of a depressed oil market may equally impact the spread of the

virus. The reality is that many countries that are deeply dependent on oil revenue also

seem to be some of the hardest hit by the virus. For example, many South American

countries have robust oil-industries that contribute significantly to the economic

prowess of the region. However, recent reports indicate that South America may be the

new epicenter for coronavirus. On the other end of the world in the Middle East,

another historically oil producing region, some countries are reporting record increases

in infections and a potential second wave.

Once again, if the spread of the virus isn’t controlled, these countries will be forced into

a renewed lock-down. But therein lies as a new problem: given the massive economic

slump these oil-revenue dependent countries are facing due to the oil-crash, how well

can their economies tolerate another widespread shutdown, similar to those instituted

during the start of the pandemic (around March and April)? Indeed, though some

countries may be able to weather another economic slowdown, some other regions may

be hesitant, as economic collapse may not be a farfetched possibility. Thus, volatility in

the oil markets may indeed be a systemic driver in preventing an ideal approach to lockdowns, which would inevitably lead to poor infection control.

CARSON, CALIFORNIA. April 25, 2020. Oil-storage tanks are seen from above after the price for crude ... [+] AFP VIA

GETTY IMAGES

Indeed, there is perhaps an unforeseen, yet unfortunate relationship between the oil

markets and coronavirus. While countries struggle with the ever tumultuous balance of

managing their economies with lock-down measures, one thing is certain: this

pandemic has brought forth unprecedented conundrums, and will likely continue to do

so in the coming months.

Full coverage and live updates on the Coronavirus

Follow me on Twitter or LinkedIn. 

Sai Balasubramanian, J.D.

I am an M.D/J.D. dual degree candidate, focusing on the intersection of healthcare and policy. I was

previously a strategy consultant for a global consulting rm, where... Read More

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