FINAL by: OSAC Program Office; Version 2, December 1, 2020 1

OSAC RESEARCH NEEDS ASSESSMENT FORM

Title of research need: Cognitive Bias: To What Extent Does It Affect Firearm and Toolmark 

Comparison Outcomes

Keyword(s): bias, firearms, toolmarks, task relevant information, forensic science

Submitting subcommittee(s): Firearms & Toolmarks Date Approved: March 5, 2021

(If SAC review identifies additional subcommittees, add them to the box above.)

Background Information:

1. Does this research need address a gap(s) in a current or planned standard? (ex.: Field identification system 

for on scene opioid detection and confirmation)

Some studies have concluded that contextual information will change comparison outcomes. It is of interest to

see if similar results are observed in the discipline of firearm and toolmark identification.

2. Are you aware of any ongoing research that may address this research need that has not yet been published 

(e.g., research presented in conference proceedings, studies that you or a colleague have participated in but 

have yet to be published)?

Unknown

3. Key bibliographic references relating to this research need: (ex.: Toll, L., Standifer, K. M., Massotte, D., eds. 

(2019). Current Topics in Opioid Research. Lausanne: Frontiers Media SA. doi: 10.3389/978-2-88963-180-3)

• Kersthol J et al. “Does Suggestive Information Cause A Confirmation Bias in Bullet Comparisons” Forensic Sci Int, 

2010 (1---‐3) pp. 138---‐42.

• Dror, I. Et al “Contextual Information Renders Experts Vulnerable to Making Erroneous Identifications” Forensic 

Sci Int, 2006 (156) pp 74---‐78.

4. Review the annual operational/research needs published by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) at 

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/forensic-science-research-and-development-technology-working-groupoperational#latest? Is your research need identified by NIJ?

No

5. In what ways would the research results improve current laboratory capabilities?

Research indicates that contextual information may influence forensic science decisions and conclusions. The majority 

of this research has been done in the realm of fingerprint comparison. It would be interesting to know if other 

disciplines are prone to the same influence, or if their analysis schemes and/or nature of the evidence makes the 

more or less prone to outside influence. 
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There is a debate about how much information examiners should be given access to during their examinations, and 

what information is actually relevant to the task at hand. Having more research in this area will help laboratory 

management make intelligent decisions for their laboratory operations.

6. In what ways would the research results improve understanding of the scientific basis for the 

subcommittee(s)?

If different disciplines are more or less prone to influence from outside information, the forensic community

could write standards that were better targeted for their disciplines. Right now, there is a “one size fits all” approach, 

that may not be sufficiently nuanced.

7. In what ways would the research results improve services to the criminal justice system?

Additional data regarding bias and what types of information does and does not influence toolmark examinations will 

allow for more robust and objective examinations.

8. Status assessment (I, II, III, or IV): III

Major gap in 

current 

knowledge

Minor gap in 

current 

knowledge

No or limited

current research is 

being conducted I III

Existing current 

research is being 

conducted II IV

This research need has been identified by one or more subcommittees of OSAC and is being provided as an 

informational resource to the community.