Summary of Hurricane Maria NCST 

Investigation Progress

Joseph Main

Team Lead, Hurricane Maria NCST

National Institute of Standards and Technology

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting

June 8, 2022

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting – June 8-9, 2022
• Hazard Exposure: Strong Category 4 hurricane with peak gusts near 

140 mph (63 m/s), larger with topographic speedup effects; rainfall up 

to 40” (100 cm), extensive flooding, landslides

• Exposed Population: Entire Commonwealth (~3.3M people)

• Mortality: Challenges in attributing hurricane-related deaths; official 

death toll of 2,975 (excess mortality estimate)

• Engineered Buildings: Extensive nonstructural damage, rainwater 

intrusion, and loss of function

• Emergency Response: Challenges with rescues in flooded areas, 

complicated by loss of communications for extended periods

• Infrastructure Systems: Severe physical damage and complete/near 

complete loss of function for electrical and communications systems 

presented emergency response and recovery challenges 

• Education, Healthcare and Businesses: Negative impacts on recovery 

due to power loss, non-structural building damage, generator failures, 

and road closures

Hurricane Maria’s Impacts on Puerto Rico

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Factors considered in establishing a National Construction Safety Team (NCST)

Source: NOAA

Source: FEMA

Source: NIST
NCST Investigation Projects

Hazard Characterization: Document and understand wind 

environment and other hazards including storm surge, rainfall, 

flooding, and landslides

Project Leaders: DongHun Yeo, Scott Weaver

Performance of Critical Buildings: Evaluate how critical buildings 

performed (hospitals and shelters) – including dependence on 

electricity, water, and other infrastructure

Project Leaders: Joseph Main, Marc Levitan

Public Response to Emergency Communications: Document role 

of emergency communications and public’s response – focusing on 

communications during response and recovery (during and 

immediately after hurricane)

Project Leader: Katherine (Jo) Johnson

Morbidity and Mortality: Better understand how damaged buildings, 

and failures in supporting infrastructure, played a role in injuries and 

deaths

3 Project Leaders: Judith Mitrani-Reiser, Thomas Kirsch

Source: NIST (all photos)
NWIRP Research Projects

Recovery of Business and Supply Chains: Study recovery of 

small- and medium-sized businesses – in manufacturing, retail, 

and service sectors – to improve understanding of business 

continuity resilience planning, supply chain continuity

Project Leader: Jennifer Helgeson

Recovery of Social Functions: Examine recovery trajectories 

of sampled schools and hospitals to identify underlying 

characteristics and conditions associated with recovery of 

critical social functions

Project Leader: Maria Dillard

Impacts to and Recovery of Infrastructure Systems: Evaluate 

dependencies of building function on infrastructure (power, 

water, and transportation), including cascading loss of function 

and sequencing of recovery activities and the causes of the 

loss of functionality and extended-duration outage of the 

wireless communication system

Project Leader: Kenneth Harrison

4

Source: NIST (all photos)
To facilitate coordination across projects, four regions of focus were selected, 

considering hazard exposure, geography, and socioeconomic factors:

Regions of Focus

Municipality Boundary

San Juan Region

Utuado Region

Caguas Region

5 Humacao Region
Supporting Contracts

Contract Contractor(s) Project(s) Supported

Wind Field Modeling Applied Research Associates • Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Wind Tunnel Testing and 

Field Measurement of Winds

University of Florida

• WeatherFlow, Inc.

• Hazard Characterization 

• Critical Buildings

Engineering Services to 

Evaluate Critical Building 

Performance

Stantec Consulting Services, Inc.

• Virella Crespo & Associates (Mayagüez)

• University of Puerto Rico at Mayagüez

• Critical Buildings

Social Science Data 

Collection

Horsley Witten Group, Inc.

• Eastern Research Group

• Issues and Answers

• Albizu University (San Juan)

• Emergency Communications 

• Recovery of Business

• Recovery of Social Functions

• Infrastructure Systems

Morbidity and Mortality 

Assessment

Milken Institute School of Public Health at 

George Washington University

• University of Puerto Rico Graduate 

School of Public Health

• University of Washington

• Morbidity and Mortality

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Expected Timeline: Hurricane Maria NCST Investigation

Phase 1

•September 2017: Hurricane Maria occurs

•December 2017: Preliminary reconnaissance

•February 2018: Team established under NCST Act

Phase 2

•May 2018: Initial briefing to NCSTAC on investigation plans

•February 2019 through September 2020: Supporting contracts awarded

•January 2021: Progress report published

•Data collection

Phase 3

•Data analysis

•Development of findings and recommendations 

Phase 4

•Draft final report written

•Internal and interagency review

•Draft final report released for public comment 

Phase 5

•Final report revised

•Final report and associated data published

June 2022:

Data collection in full swing

Summer 2023:

Data collection complete, data 

analysis well underway

Summer 2024:

Data analysis and report writing 

complete, review process well 

underway

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Stakeholder Outreach & Other Agency Coordination

• Briefings this year for PR government agencies and others included: 

− PR Dept of Health: January

− PR Federal Affairs Administration: February

− Staff of PR Resident Commissioner/Congresswoman, Jenniffer González-Colón: 

February

− Resources for Communities and People (RCAP) Solutions: March

− Central Office for Recovery, Reconstruction, and Resiliency (COR3): April

• Additional outreach for information and data requests included:

− RAND Corporation

− HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness & Response

− FEMA

• PR Department of Education extended its approval of investigation and 

study projects involving public schools for another year in March

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• New NIST Associates (Professional Research Experience 

Program):

− Dr. Alizabeth M. Sánchez-López: Supporting the Recovery of 

Business and Supply Chain project

− Dr. Yunjae Hwang: Supporting the Hazard Characterization

project

• New support by NIST colleagues from the Statistical 

Engineering Division:

− Dr. Adam Pintar

− Dr. Gregory Haber

− Dr. Jack Prothero

Staffing and Support

Dr. Sánchez-López

Dr. Yunjae Hwang 9
• Office of Management (OMB) Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA) reviews have been 

extremely timely – our record is < 24 hours for approval; in part due to a generic 

clearance

• The OMB PRA Community Resilience Generic Clearance expires July 2022 and is 

being submitted for renewal through 2025

• Both NCST and NWIRP data and information collections use this clearance

Paperwork Reduction Act Approvals for Data Collection

Project Instrument Approval Date Review Length

Emergency 

Communications

Household Interview June 2021 < 2 weeks

Morbidity and Mortality Final Verbal Autopsy 

Socio-Environmental Interview 

Instrument

September 2021 < 2 weeks

Recovery of Business 

and Supply Chain

Shipping and Transportation Interview 

Guide

April 2022 < 1 week

Recovery of Social 

Functions

School Recovery Interview Guide

Hospital Recovery Interview Guide

March 2022

March 2022

< 1 week

< 1 week

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Data Collection: Wind Tunnel Testing

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• University of Florida contractor team completed model fabrication and 

testing for two hospital facilities

• Objectives: evaluate wind loads sustained during Hurricane Maria, 

including effects of local topography and surrounding buildings, and to 

evaluate adequacy of existing standard provisions to capture these effects

• Data processing and curation underway

Hospital Bella Vista University Pediatric Hospital

Source: University of Florida (Contract 1333ND19PNB730233) Source: University of Florida (Contract 1333ND19PNB730233)
• Horsley Witten contractor team completed 78% 

of 1,500 surveys as of May 31, 2022

• Household survey is focused on risk awareness, 

access to information channels and sources, and 

factors for evacuation decision-making

Data Collection: Emergency Communications 

Household Survey

• Data collectors are completing the vast 

majority of surveys in person; minimal 

online survey completion

• Response rates are highest on weekends

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Source: Horsley Witten Group, Inc. (Contract 1333ND20FNB730041)
• University of Puerto Rico contractor team 

completed 368 interviews as of May 31, 2022

• Next of kin and key informants are being 

interviewed for a population of 1,804 people 

who died within 14 days after landfall

• Objectives are to ascertain cause of deaths 

and identify socio-environmental contextual 

factors that could be related to the deaths 

• Of the individuals who were contacted, 62% 

agreed to participate

• Contract modification awarded to support 

additional efforts to contact remaining next of 

kin and key informants

Data Collection: Verbal Autopsy Study

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Source: Bernardo Hernández Prado 

(with permission)
• Data collection is complete for surveys of manufacturing and retail 

service businesses

• Data collection is underway with surveys of schools and hospitals

• Interviews are slated to begin Summer 2022 for school and hospital 

administrators, as well as shipping and transportation sector 

representatives

• Vegetation remote sensing work now includes new data products to 

capture temporal variation of tree cover; these data products inform 

understanding of impacts to the transportation and power systems and 

benefit the Hazard Characterization Project’s wind modeling work

Data Collection: NWIRP Research Projects

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2013 2017 2019
Joseph Main

Team Lead

joseph.main@nist.gov

Maria Dillard

Associate Team Lead

maria.dillard@nist.gov

NCST Technical Investigation of 

Hurricane Maria (Puerto Rico)

NCST Advisory Committee Meeting – June 8-9, 2022

www.nist.gov/disaster-failure-studies/hurricane-maria