FINAL by: OSAC Program Office; Version 2, January 13, 2020 1

OSAC RESEARCH NEEDS ASSESSMENT FORM

Title of research need: Validation of Origin and Cause Determination Protocols 

Describe

the need:

Reliability and validity studies need to be conducted on current methodologies used to det

ermine origin and cause. New methodologies could also be proposed and tested. Existing 

guidance in NFPA 921 does not fully address uncertainty, reliability, and

limitations associated with current methodologies used to determine origin and cause.

There is a need for comprehensive statistically sound assessments of current 

methodologies. 

Keyword(s): Validity, reliability, origin, cause

Submitting subcommittee(s): Fire & Explosion Investigation Date Approved: March 10, 2021

(If SAC review identifies additional subcommittees, add them to the box above.)

Background Information:

1. Does this research need address a gap(s) in a current or planned standard? (ex.: Field identification system 

for on scene opioid detection and confirmation)

Yes. NFPA 921 speaks to a number of techniques but does not completely address uncertainty and limitations.

2. Are you aware of any ongoing research that may address this research need that has not yet been published 

(e.g., research presented in conference proceedings, studies that you or a colleague have participated in but 

have yet to be published)?

No.

3. Key bibliographic references relating to this research need: (ex.: Toll, L., Standifer, K. M., Massotte, D., eds. 

(2019). Current Topics in Opioid Research. Lausanne: Frontiers Media SA. doi: 10.3389/978-2-88963-180-3)

NFPA (2002) Recommendations of the Research Advisory Council on Post-fire Analysis – A White Paper. Fire

Protection Research Foundation, Quincy, MA. 

NAS (2009). Strengthening Forensic Science in the United States: A Path Forward. National Research Council 

Washington, D.C.

NFPA 921 (2021). Guide for Fire and Explosion Investigations. NFPA Quincy, MA. 

NFPA 1033 (2014). Standard for Professional Qualifications for Fire Investigator. NFPA Quincy, MA. 

Cox, A (2013). Origin Matrix Analysis: A systematic methodology for the assessment and interpretation of 

compartment fire damage. Fire and Arson Investigator, 64(1) 37--47.

Gorbett G, Morris S, Meacham B, Wood C (2015). A New Method for the Characterization of the Degree of Fire 

Damage to Gypsum Wallboard for Use in Fire Investigations. Journal of Forensic Sciences (60), S193--S196 doi: 

10.1111/1556-4029.12616

Mealy C, Gottuk D (2011). Full Scale Validation Tests of a Forensic Methodology to Determine Smoke Alarm 

Response.
FINAL by: OSAC Program Office; Version 2, January 13, 2020 2

Fire Technology (47) 275---289, doi: 10.1007/s10694---010---0154---0

Gorbett G, Meacham B, Wood C, Dembsey N (2015). Structure and Evaluation of the Process for Origin Determination

in Compartment Fires. DOI 10.1007/s10694--015--0553--3.

4. Review the annual operational/research needs published by the National Institute of Justice (NIJ) at 

https://nij.ojp.gov/topics/articles/forensic-science-research-and-development-technology-working-groupoperational#latest? Is your research need identified by NIJ?

No.

5. In what ways would the research results improve current laboratory capabilities?

The research would quantify uncertainty, repeatability, and limitations associated with current 

methodologies used to determine origin and cause. The research could lead to more consistent and accurate 

methodologies. 

6. In what ways would the research results improve understanding of the scientific basis for the 

subcommittee(s)?

See Number 5.

7. In what ways would the research results improve services to the criminal justice system?

More reliable and accurate methodologies will enhance the basis of conclusion make regarding origin and cause. 

8. Status assessment (I, II, III, or IV): I

Major gap in 

current 

knowledge

Minor gap in 

current 

knowledge

No or limited

current research is 

being conducted I III

Existing current 

research is being 

conducted II IV

This research need has been identified by one or more subcommittees of OSAC and is being provided as an 

informational resource to the community.