Camp Fire – Fire Progression Timeline

April 29, 2021

Alexander Maranghides 

Eric Link

International Association of Fire Chiefs

Photo courtesy of CALFIRE, 

used with permission

Erin Ashley (FEMA)

Will Brewer (CALFIRE)

Chris Brown

Nelson Bryner

Ryan Falkenstein-Smith

Lucy Fox

David Hawks (CALFIRE)

Steven Hawks (CALFIRE)

Nicole LaRosa (USFA)

William "Ruddy" Mell (USFS)

Cartier Murrill

Becky Turnbull

Bob Vihnanek (USFS)

Doug Walton

Mike Wilson (CALFIRE)
2

192 Contributors — THANK YOU!

Office of the State Fire Marshal Law Enforcement Emergency Medical Services

Damage Inspectors (DINS) Town of Paradise National Weather Service

Data Collectors Transportation Reviewers

Fire Departments Water Districts Public Affairs Office
3

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations

Presentation Themes

• Well-prepared Intermix community

• Rapid fire spread to and within Paradise 

- impact on life safety, response, and losses

• Burnovers

- large number (documented versus reported)

- occurred in town and on major egress arteries

- significant impact on life safety

• Not a unique event

- how many other communities are in a similar situation?
Previous NIST Case Studies and 

WUI Scale

NIST TN 1635 (Witch #1) NIST TN 1796 (Witch #2)

NIST TN 1748 

(WUI Exposure Scale)

• Timeline reconstruction

• Defensive actions

• Structure ignitions

• Methodology for future 

developments

• Exposure quantification!!!

• Defensive actions

• Effectiveness of mitigation

• Exposure scale 

framework

• Linking exposure to building 

construction through codes 

and standards

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Previous NIST Case Studies and 

WUI Scale

NIST TN 1708 (Amarillo #1) NIST TN 1909 (Amarillo #2) NIST TN 1910 (Waldo)

• Deployment 

methodologies

• Damage Assessment 

Summary

• “Area/Neighborhood” 

Case Studies

• Fire behavior

• Defensive actions

• Timeline reconstruction

• Fire behavior

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
• Witch Fire 

• Overall: 1125 destroyed, 77 damaged

• Focus: 1 community, 274 residences

• 74 destroyed, 16 damaged

(primary residential structures)

• Tanglewood Complex 

– Focus: entire WUI, entire fire, parcel-level data

– 35 destroyed, 10 damaged

• Waldo Canyon Fire 

– Focus: entire WUI, parcel-level data

– 344 destroyed, 103 damaged

• Camp Fire

– Overall: 13696 dest.

489 damaged

– Focus: entire WUI (intermix), communitylevel data

Adaptable Methodology – NIST Case Study Scales

Washington, DC 

for scale

Entire fire perimeter

Case study WUI 

“focus area”

0 10 20 km
Camp Fire Overview

losses | statistics

7

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Camp Fire Location

8

2018 Population*

Location Pop.

Paradise 26 218

Magalia 11 310

Concow 710

Chico

(Urban Area) 91 998

Oroville 

(Urban Area) 41 837

Butte 

County 227 075

Significant development started during Gold Rush (1850s)

Town incorporated in 1979

* 2018 ACS 5-year Estimates, US Census Bureau

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Paradise Points of Interest

9

Concow

Magalia

Pulga

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
• Size: 153 336 acres

• Start: Nov 8, 2018, ~6:30 am

• Dates: Nov 8–25, 2018 (18 days)

• Structures Damaged/Destroyed: 19 531

• Population Displaced: over 50 000

• Fatalities: 85

• Persons Located: 3266

Camp Fire Overview Statistics

10

https://www.arcgis.com/apps/webappviewer/index.html?id=5306cc8cf38c4252830a38d467d33728

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Camp Fire Structure Losses

Category of Damagea

Affected

(1-9%)

Minor

(10-25%)

Major

(26-50%)

Destroyed 

(>50%) Total

Single Residence 439 47 3 13 696 14 185

Multiple Residence 21 3 1 276 301

Mixed Commercial/Residential 1 1 0 11 13

Non-residential Commercial 76 18 8 528 630

“Other” Minor Structuresb 87 32 13 4286 4418

Infrastructurec 2 0 2 7 11

Total 626 101 27 18 804 19 558

a Damage categories are adopted from Federal Emergency Management Agency preliminary damage assessment 

guidelines.

b “Other” includes uninhabitable structures such as detached garages and sheds > 11 m2 (120 ft2).

c Infrastructure includes communications towers, water supply equipment, and bridges.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 1. 11

90% of all structures damaged or destroyed

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Case Study

case-study plan | research questions

12

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Why The Camp Fire?

• Intermix Fire with:

• extreme fire behavior,

• size and losses, and 

• evacuation of entire town

• Data-rich scene

• NIST technical partnerships in place

• Fully integrated with local officials (CALFIRE)

• Representative of many other similar communities

13

Camp Fire ~ 4× Washington, D.C. area

Chico Paradise

Concow Pulga

Camp Fire ~ 14 % Butte County area

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
 Report #1: Camp Fire Preliminary Reconnaissance 

 Report #2: Preliminary Data Collected from the 

Camp Fire Reconnaissance 

• Report #3: Fire Progression Timeline

• Report #4: Notification, Evacuation, Temporary 

Refuge Areas, and Burnovers 

• Report #5: Emergency Response and Defensive 

Actions 

• Data Visualization Tool

14

The NIST Camp Fire Case Study Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Camp Fire Technical Research

https://www.nist.gov/el/fire-research-division-73300/

wildland-urban-interface-fire-73305/nist-investigation-california

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Five Research Questions 

1. How can a fire event of the scale of the Camp Fire be 

documented to facilitate the extraction of information for 

reducing future losses?

2. How did the fire spread to and within Paradise?

3. What were the primary causes of the extensive devastation? 

4. What fire spread pathways caused structural ignitions? 

5. How unique is Paradise as a community at risk of WUI fires?

16

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Pre-Fire Conditions

wind + drought + topography + fire history

community characteristics

17

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Source: CAL FIRE. 

Overlays by NIST.

Paradise

See inset.

18

Butte County Fire Hazard Severity 

Magalia

Paradise

Concow

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 3.

Majority of area Very High Fire Hazard Severity Zone

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Red Flag Warning and Drought

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 7. 19

• Widespread Red Flag 

Warnings for November 8 

• Wind gust forecast showing 

peak winds exceeding 50 mi/h

a) 1-month b) 6-month c) 1-year

Source: Western Regional Climate Center.

a) b)

Source: NWS Sacramento. Source: NWS Sacramento.

• Dry conditions following 

200 days without precipitation

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
20

Topography

WEST BRANCH 

FEATHER RIVER CANYON

• Significant 

steep canyons

• Localized wind 

alignment

• Difficult access

• Restricted 

egress

gentle (< 15 %)

moderate (15 % to 30 %)

steep (30 % to 60 %)

very steep (60 % to 90 %)

cliff (> 90 %)

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Fire History

Historic fire perimeters in 

northern Butte County 

(1911–2018) 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 10. 21

Number of times each 

area has burned.

Number of years 

since the last fire. 

• 42% had never burned 

including all area in/around 

Paradise.

• 17 of 20 prior years had 1 or 

more fires

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Population and Housing Density

Location Pop. Area

km2 (mi2)

Pop. Density

p/km2 (p/mi2)

DINS

Struct. 

Count

Nominal 

Struct. Density 

s/ha (s/ac)

Effective 

Struct. Density 

s/ha (s/ac)

Paradise 26 218 47.5 (18.3) 552 

(1433) 16 520 3.5

(1.4)

6.4

(2.6)

Magalia 11 310 36.3 (14.0) 312 

(808) 3466a 6.4a

(2.6)

8.2

(3.3)

Concow 710 72.0 (27.8) 10 

(26) 684 0.1 

(0.04)

0.6

(0.25)

a Only the fire-impacted southern portion of Magalia was included in structure damage inspection 

data; the entire structure count is unavailable. Area was truncated at the extent of available data.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 2. 22

10+ fold range in effective structure density

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
23

Range of Housing Density in Paradise

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 2.

a) Apple Tree Village 

Mobile Home Park

• ≤ 3 m (10 ft) separation

• 7 structures / acre

b) Lancaster Dr (Bille Rd)

• 3 m (10 ft) separation

• 2.9 structures / acre

c) Valley Ridge Dr

• 8 m (26 ft) separation

• 1.4 structures / acre

d) Round Valley Ranch Rd

• 25 m (82 ft) separation

• 0.3 structures / acre

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Preparedness

Community Preparedness

1. Communities did have multiple programs in place to increase 

awareness of and reduce fire hazards associated with WUI fires.

2. The Town of Paradise did have an emergency notification and 

evacuation plan.

3. Paradise Public Works staff had received training in how to respond 

to a WUI fire.

4. Infrastructure was specifically addressed in pre-fire preparations.

24

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Preparedness

Infrastructure and Firefighting Preparedness

1. Communication battery backup updated day before fire.

2. Water systems (PID and Del Oro) at full capacity.

3. Fire fighting staffing at increased level (Locally and regionally) – more 

in report #5.

25

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Fire Progression

IC overview | detailed narrative | analysis | maps 

26

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
IC Technical Discussion

06:31 First dispatch by/under power lines, dispatch B2118, P2121, T2107, E2176, E2161, E2167, E2186, E2182, 

E2162, Company 67, WT37, WT67, TD2140, TD2142, BFC2, BFC3. These were all sent up to NOPS.

06:44 First engine confirms fire off Camp Creek Road, 35 mi/h sustained wind.

06:44 ECC places request for 15 additional engines, 4 dozers, 2 water tenders, and 4 strike teams of hand crews.

06:45 Received call at home. BC informed me of the incident. Cool morning 40 °F. Fire appears on Flea 

Mountain camera.

06:54 E2161 request a mandatory evacuation order for Pulga and stage resources at Scooters. 

06:55 ECC called BCSO and requested Mandatory Evacuation order for Pulga.

07:02 Duty Chief calls. IC send him to Concow.

07:10 Duty Chief calls back, reports flames visible from Hwy 149.

07:14 B2118 assumes IC.

07:21 Camp IC – “Pulga has been evacuated. If you could make notifications, request representative to Scooters. 

Have the Sheriff respond to Camelot area for evacuations.”

07:22 Camp IC – “Request evacuation warning for the Concow area – working on exact area and warning/order.”

07:22 ECC called BCSO requesting mandatory evacuation warning for Concow Immediately.

07:26 Camp IC – “shut down Hwy 70 and standby for resource order. Close Hwy 70 from Pentz to Belden.”

07:30 Requests to early up all aircraft - Paradise burning not being considered at that time.

07:32 EVAC warning Pentz Rd west side.

07:33 Resource order for an additional 15 engine strike teams, 15 hand crew strike teams, 10 dozer strike teams, 

with appropriate overhead.

07:40 T2107 needs 5 engine strike teams on Hoffman Rd can’t get ahold of Camp IC – request relay info.

07:44 ECC takes call at 1900 Drayer Dr/Pentz Rd reporting fire on the Paradise side of canyon – reporting 3 

spots.

07:45 At ICP develop incident objectives, box it in: North of Hwy 70, east of Pentz, then west of Pulga and south 

of Empire Creek. Before objectives are announced on the radio, there are spot fires reported outside the 

box.

07:44 IC change over to new IC – for remainder of first day.

07:45 Camp IC – “We are extending the mandatory evac zone to east of Pentz Rd 3, 8, 14 and everything east of 

Pentz Rd and everything north of Hwy 70.”

07:46 ECC calls BCSO requesting the above Evacuation Warning. Not thinking spot fires is a crazy issue, spot 

fires are normal.

Incident Commander Account

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 10. 27

Detailed account of event from 

IC perspective, including:

• Resource requests

• Fire location

• Fire behavior

• Evacuation orders

• Life safety

• Response orders

• Multi-agency coordination

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Fire Progression –Three Levels of Detail

1. Overview in Executive Summary and report 

findings/conclusions (3 pages) 

2. Detailed fire behavior — by focus regions (71 pages)

• Fire progression described by region and by time

• 14 large format maps by time (3 ft x 4 ft)

3. All of the data in Appendix F (113 pages, 8 font)

28

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
29

Fire Timeline Focus – 15 Regions

1. Detailed Narration

2. Tabulated Highlights

• Time

• Description

• General Location

• Information Source(s) 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 23.

Note some regions overlap slightly indicated by relative discoloration.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Concow Fire Progression (1 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 06:25 06:40

First report of vegetation fire via 911. Caller reports fire under electric transmission lines 

within 6 m (20 ft) of tower, estimated size 30 m × 30 m (100 ft ×100 ft). Others call to 

report same fire.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam

911-001-1 

911-002-1 

911-004-1

11/8 06:45

First engine gets sight of well-established fire, reports difficult access in nearly 

inaccessible location. Approximately 15 m/s (35 mi/h) sustained winds. Captain declares 

potential for a major incident.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam TD-028

11/8 06:45 Investigators determined a second power line ignition started another fire which was 

enveloped in the Camp Fire.

Near intersection of Rim Rd 

and Concow Rd VTD-28

11/8 06:45 Fire begins threatening structures in Pulga. Pulga TD-029

11/8 07:10 Engine reports fire is now 80 ha to 120 ha (200 ac to 300 ac) with rapid rate of spread 

toward Concow Reservoir. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:15 Fire spread SW from origin and got established in Flea Valley above Pulga. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Wind pushing fire up slope W, WSW; fire extending up slope and well beyond ridge to W Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Multiple (5) small spot fires (3 m × 3 m, 10 ft ×10 ft) visible on east facing slopes west of 

Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-013

11/8 07:20 Engines attempting access to the north flank of the fire encounter large, a wellestablished spot fire, 0.1 ha to 0.2 ha (0.25 ac to 0.5 ac).

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:25 Spot fires are igniting in Concow and homes start to catch fire. Concow TD-062

11/8 07:30 Engines responding to Concow encounter 6 m × 6 m (20 ft ×20 ft) spot fire burning 

upwind, threatening homes. Concow Rd at Cribbage Ln TD-013

11/8 07:30 First 911 call reporting active fire in yard. Concow 911-037-1

11/8 07:30 Spot fires up on Rim Rd have grown to several acres within 10 min, spreading up slope, 

consuming the draw.

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:40 07:45 Multiple 911 calls report multiple spot fires just below Sawmill Peak, burning on the 

Paradise side. Sawmill Peak 911-048-1 

911-058-1

11/8 07:50 Fire is well-established in Concow. Multiple structures are burning, and fire is impacting 

evacuation. Concow 911-075-1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 30

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
31

Caltrans Pulga Maintenance Yard, 07:23

• View of the fire looking north from Highway 70.

• Panorama created from video recording.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 24.

Video courtesy of TD-028, 07:23.

Used with permission. 

Composite image by NIST.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Concow Fire Progression (1 of 2)

Date Time Range Fire Behavior Observations Location Source #

11/8 06:25 06:40

First report of vegetation fire via 911. Caller reports fire under electric transmission lines 

within 6 m (20 ft) of tower, estimated size 30 m × 30 m (100 ft ×100 ft). Others call to 

report same fire.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam

911-001-1 

911-002-1 

911-004-1

11/8 06:45

First engine gets sight of well-established fire, reports difficult access in nearly 

inaccessible location. Approximately 15 m/s (35 mi/h) sustained winds. Captain declares 

potential for a major incident.

West side Feather River, CA 

Hwy 70 at Poe Dam TD-028

11/8 06:45 Investigators determined a second power line ignition started another fire which was 

enveloped in the Camp Fire.

Near intersection of Rim Rd 

and Concow Rd VTD-28

11/8 06:45 Fire begins threatening structures in Pulga. Pulga TD-029

11/8 07:10 Engine reports fire is now 80 ha to 120 ha (200 ac to 300 ac) with rapid rate of spread 

toward Concow Reservoir. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:15 Fire spread SW from origin and got established in Flea Valley above Pulga. Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Wind pushing fire up slope W, WSW; fire extending up slope and well beyond ridge to W Pulga TD-028

11/8 07:20 Multiple (5) small spot fires (3 m × 3 m, 10 ft ×10 ft) visible on east facing slopes west of 

Concow Reservoir. West side of Concow Reservoir TD-013

11/8 07:20 Engines attempting access to the north flank of the fire encounter large, a wellestablished spot fire, 0.1 ha to 0.2 ha (0.25 ac to 0.5 ac).

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:25 Spot fires are igniting in Concow and homes start to catch fire. Concow TD-062

11/8 07:30 Engines responding to Concow encounter 6 m × 6 m (20 ft ×20 ft) spot fire burning 

upwind, threatening homes. Concow Rd at Cribbage Ln TD-013

11/8 07:30 First 911 call reporting active fire in yard. Concow 911-037-1

11/8 07:30 Spot fires up on Rim Rd have grown to several acres within 10 min, spreading up slope, 

consuming the draw.

Rim Rd between Concow and 

Pulga TD-005

11/8 07:40 07:45 Multiple 911 calls report multiple spot fires just below Sawmill Peak, burning on the 

Paradise side. Sawmill Peak 911-048-1 

911-058-1

11/8 07:50 Fire is well-established in Concow. Multiple structures are burning, and fire is impacting 

evacuation. Concow 911-075-1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 11. 32

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 25.

Video courtesy of TD-005, 07:32. 

Used with permission.

Strong Wind at Rim Road

• Spot fires on ridgetop and into Concow

• Strong east/northeast winds blowing rocks

33

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
34

14 E-size Maps (3 ft × 4 ft)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Section 9.1, Maps 2-14

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
35

Fire Progression Summary 06:15 to 07:50

Initial spot fires 

along Pentz Rd

Ignition near Pulga

Rapid fire growth in 

steep terrain and 

high winds

Spot fires ignite 

throughout Concow

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Fire front impacts 

Pentz Rd

Spot fires ignite 

on Nunneley Rd

Many spot fires ignite 

deeper into community

Intense fire activity 

continues in Concow

36

Fire Progression Summary 07:50 to 08:40

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
37

Fire Progression Summary 08:40 to 09:45

Fire impacts FRH and 

spreads west of Pentz Rd

Fire impacts 

Skyway

Spot fire ignites in 

Honey Run Canyon Heavy fire continues 

in Concow

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
38

Fire Progression Summary 09:45 to 10:45

Multiple fires are well 

established within the 

center of Paradise

Fire burns over 

evacuees on Skyway

Fire burns over evacuees on 

Pearson, Pentz, and Bille Rds

Fire burns over 

evacuees on Clark Rd

Yellow shows extent 

of fire at 10:45

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Imagery: USGS/NASA Landsat

39

Fire Progression Summary by 10:45

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
40

Fire Progression Summary (Day 1)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 22.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Burnovers

19 documented 

11 incidents occurred 7:50 am – 10:00 am

41

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Burnovers

Report describes identified:

burnovers, entrapments, and “near misses”

42

Source: ViralHog

Used with permission.

• Unexpectedly caught

• Life-threatening position

• Fire overtakes personnel or 

equipment

• Escape routes or safety zones are 

absent, inadequate, or compromised

• May or may not result in injury

• Possible damage to equipment

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Burnovers

• 19 burnover events were documented

• Occurred throughout the duration of the fire 

• Occurred throughout the fire area 

• Additional burnovers occurred but were not captured 

during the data collection process because:

• no personnel (first responder or civilian) was present to witness the 

event, or

• the event was witnessed by first responder(s) and/or civilian(s), but 

data was not captured because no TD took place with these 

individuals.

43

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
44

Locations of Documented Burnovers

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Identified burnover locations by time of 

occurrence and risk of injury or death.

ID Burnover Location Time Risk of Injury/Death Category

1 Hoffman Rd 07:50 1

2 Concow Rd 07:50 2

3 Chapman Ln 08:30 1

4 Skyway (upper, between Clark Rd and Wagstaff Rd) 08:30 1

5 Windermere Ln 08:35a 1

6 Pentz Rd 08:45 1

7 Pearson Rd 09:15 1

8 Bille Rd 09:25 1

9 Wagstaff Rd 09:30 2

10 Clark Rd / American Way 10:00 2

11 Clark Rd / Airport Rd 10:00 2

12 Skyway (lower, west of Princeton Way) 10:15 2

13 Jordan Hill Rd /Granite Hill Rd 11:30 1

14 Clark Rd / Black Bear Diner 13:10 2

15 Rattlesnake Flats Rd 15:15 1

16 Coutolenc Rd 00:00b 2

17 Chestnut Cir 06:00b 1

18 Ponderosa Way 07:15b 2

19 Concow Fire Station 37 07:15b 1

a Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

b November 9.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 33. 45

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Burnovers Summary (1 of 2)

ID Location

Burnover 

Initiation

Burnover 

Duration

Road Width

(m)

Vegetation 

Setback

(m)

Roadway 

Length 

Affected a (m)

Impacted 

Civilian 

Evacuation

(Y if yes)

Fire Shelter(s) 

Deployed

(Y if yes)

TRA Formed

(Y if yes)

1 Hoffman Rd 07:50 40 min 3 0–2,

more at creek 250 Y Y Y

2 Concow Rd 07:50 70 min 7 0–1 1000 Y

3 Chapman Ln 08:30 n/d b 3 0–3 250

4 Skyway 

(upper) 08:30 360 min 8 0–10 2600

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y

5 Windermere Ln 08:35 c n/d 4 0–2 1100 Y

6 Pentz Rd 08:45 150 min 8 0–1 1300

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y

7 Pearson Rd 09:15 60 min 11 1–3 800

Y 

(street was 

gridlocked)

Y Y

8 Bille Rd 09:25 140 min 8 0–2 500

Y 

(street was 

blocked)

Y

9 Wagstaff Rd 09:30 60 min 8 0–3 500 Y

10 Clark Rd / 

American Way 10:00 120 min 11 1–3 700 Y

11 Clark Rd / Airport Rd 10:00 90 min 9 1 1500 Y

46

a The roadway segment affected by each burnover was estimated from the technical discussions.

b No data

c First time of observation. Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 34.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Burnovers Summary (2 of 2)

ID Location

Burnover 

Initiation

Burnover 

Duration

Road 

Width

(m)

Vegetation 

Setback

(m)

Roadway 

Length 

Affected a (m)

Impacted 

Civilian 

Evacuation

(Y if yes)

Fire 

Shelter(s) 

Deployed

(Y if yes)

TRA 

Formed

(Y if yes)

12 Skyway 

(lower) 10:15 90 min 7–20 1–3 1000 Y

13 Jordan Hill Rd /

Granite Hill Rd 11:30 n/d 5 0–4 800 Y

14 Clark Rd / 

Black Bear Diner 13:10 c n/d 23 3 

(structure) 150

15 Rattlesnake Flats Rd 15:15 15 min 3 0 300

16 Coutolenc Rd 00:00

(Nov 9) 120 min 7 0–2 3000 Y

17 Chestnut Cir 06:00 

(Nov 9) n/a 9 0–1 150

18 Ponderosa Way 07:15 

(Nov 9) n/d 12 0–3 400 Y Y

19 Concow Fire Station 37 07:15

(Nov 9) n/d 9 0–3 600 Y

a The roadway segment affected by each burnover was estimated from the technical discussions.

b No data

c First time of observation. Burnover conditions existed prior to the first recorded observation.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 34. 47

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
48

Burnovers Appendix B

Hoffman Road Burnover Details

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
49

Burnover #1: Hoffman Rd

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Hoffman Rd low water crossing

Pre-fire image, Bing Maps

Post-fire image, NIST photo Mar 28, 2019

50

Burnover #1: Hoffman Rd

• Rapid expansion of fire

• Vehicles, vegetation, structures 

burning

• Trees and fire blocking roadway

• Approx. 30 civilians took refuge in creek

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47. 51

Burnover #4: Upper Skyway Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
52

Burnover #4: Upper Skyway

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 10:49 (Nov 9).

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-205, 13:58.

Used with permission.

• Prolonged period of hazardous 

conditions

• Rapid spread of initial spot fires

• Standstill traffic

• Abandoned vehicles burning in 

roadway

• Prevented evacuation from points 

north

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47. 53

Burnover #6: Pentz Road Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Zero visibility, on foot, 

re-directing traffic

Conditions south of 

hospital after burnover

54

Burnover #6: Pentz Road 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 48.

Video courtesy of TD-090, 10:15.

Used with permission.

Video courtesy of TD-090, 10:50.

Used with permission.

• Widespread spot fires

• Standstill traffic

• Zero visibility

• Burning vegetation, structures, 

and vehicles along roadway

• Multiple civilian rescues

• Shelter-in-place and traffic 

redirection

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47. 55

Burnover #7: Pearson Road Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
56

Burnover #7: Pearson Road

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 36.

Photo courtesy of TD-122, 09:40.

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-122, 09:40.

Used with permission.

• Standstill traffic

• Intense vegetation fire in 

drainage near Stearns Rd and 

Hilbe Dr

• Igniting vehicles and structures

• Fire engines and dozers assisted 

civilians into temporary refuge 

area

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 47. 57

Burnover #8: Bille Road Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
58

Burnover #8: Bille Road

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 34.

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 09:04 (Nov 10).

Used with permission.

• Fire impacted standstill traffic

• Evacuees fled on foot, 

abandoning vehicles

• Fire engine at Pentz Rd and 

Bille Rd protected temporary 

refuge area with water spray

• Burning vehicles blocked 

roadway all day

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
General Fire Behavior

spot fires | structure ignition pathways

59

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
60

Early Spot Fires in Paradise

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 51.

Distance into community (km)

Edge of community

12345678

Elevation: USGS | Roads, Water: U.S. Census Bureau TIGER/Line Shapefiles

Map, data points, and overlays by NIST.

Spot Fire Ignitions

07:49 – 08:30 (N=30)

08:30 – 10:30 (N=35)

30 identified spot fires within first 40 minutes (red)

5 mi 4 mi 3 mi 2 mi 1 mi

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
61

Structure Ignition Pathways

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 54.

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
62

Structure Ignition, Example 1

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 54.

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
63

Structure Ignition, Example 1

Structure ignition on Dade Ct in Magalia. Images are two 

minutes apart and show fire spread from surface fuels to fence 

to vegetation to eaves. The combustible fence is estimated to be 

approximately 1.8 m (6 ft) away from the structure.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 53.

a) t = 0 s b) t = 139 s

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 03:20 (Nov 9). 

Used with permission.

Photo courtesy of TD-041, 03:22 (Nov 9). 

Used with permission.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
64

Structure Ignition, Example 2

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Displaced 

vehicle

Structure

ignition

Photo courtesy of TD-091, 14:07. 

Used with permission.

Overlays by NIST. Photo by NIST (Dec 1, 2018).

65

Structure Ignition, Example 2 

a) A dozer displaced the 

vehicle to stop fire spread 

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 52.

b) Associated evidence of the fire 

ignition and defensive actions 

encountered during NIST damage 

assessments.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
66

Residential Structure Ignition Pathways 

Identified by Direct Observation

Data Source

Time

of Obs. Locationa Building Ignition Pathway

Source to Target 

Distance

m ft

TD-045 09:10 Chris Ct Shed to fence to shed to houseb 2.7 9

TD-005 10:20 Canyon View Dr Bark mulch to wall of house (OSB and vinyl) unknown

TD-060 11:06 Sweetbriar Ln Structure ignition via radiation from neighboring 

structure on fire 11 35

TD-092 13:52 Neal Rd Burning car to shed to house unknown

TD-091 14:06 Lewis Ranch Rd Burning car to side of house 1.5–2.4 5–8

TD-091 14:06 Neal Rd Mulch to garage unknown

TD-015

TD-017

TD-064

PPD

14:37 Skyway Fence to wall of building 2.4 8

TD-100

TD-101 14:53 Pearson Rd Commercial structure to commercial structure roof to eave

0.7 2

TD-036 14:58 Skyway Juniper vegetation to eave against house

TD-108 17:01 Clark Rd Juniper vegetation to house 1.3 4

TD-091 17:09 Neal Rd Burning bark mulch into subfloor vents of house unknown

TD-091 17:23 Sutter Rd 8 m × 4 m (26 ft × 13 ft) shed to house eaves 2.4 8

TD-044 19:00 Valley Ridge Dr Fence to boat to house 2.7–3.6 9–12

TD-205 20:12 Clark Rd Boat on fire to eaves of house 2.5 8

TD-044 22:30 Valley Ridge Dr Woodpile to house 0.3–0.7 1–2

TD-041 03:20c Dade Ct, Magalia Fence/ground fuel to tree to eaves of house 1.5 5

a Location in Paradise unless noted.

b Second shed fire resulted in an explosion that caused a firefighter injury.

c November 9.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Table 35.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Primary Driving Factors

ignition potential + fuel density + wind/terrain + extent of fire front

67

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Primary Drivers Influencing the Extent 

of Damage and Destruction

1. Fuel ignition potential

2. Density of vegetative and structural fuels 

3. Wind and terrain

4. Extent/size of fire front reaching the communities

68

It was the confluence of these four factors that 

resulted in very aggressive fire behavior. 

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Fuel Ignition Potential

• Dry fuels receptive to ignitions from embers

• “100 % ember ignitions” [TD-041, TD-079] 

• Numerous spot fires ignited in fine fuels (pine needles, 

ornamental vegetation) well ahead of the fire front

• In Paradise, ignitions started approximately 30 min to 40 min 

before the arrival of the fire front

69

Fuel receptivity within the communities caused 

the large number of spot fire ignitions. 

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Density of Vegetative and Structural 

Fuels

• Century-long community growth

• Wildland-urban intermix developed within wildland vegetation

• Smaller residential lot sizes

• Locally low structure separation distances

• No fire history within Paradise and Magalia

• Long-term accumulation of vegetative fuels

• Post-fire fuel transition to brush and finer fuels in 

Concow area [TD-008]

70

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Density of Vegetative and Structural 

Fuels – Addressing the Hazard

71

HARDEN 

STRUCTURE b

REDUCE 

EXPOSURE a

Displace Fuels Remove Fuels Fire Resistant 

Design

Community Design

Ignition/Fire Spread 

Resistant Materials

Active Systems

a Reduce fire and/or ember exposures b Hardening for embers and/or fire

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
72

Structure Ignition Pathways – Fuels 

Reduction

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 54.

Wildlands WUI

Detached Combustibles

• Fences

• Wood piles

• Railroad ties

• Mulch/ground debris

• Playsets

• Retaining walls

• Vehicles

Ornamental 

Vegetation

Residence

Eaves/ roof

Vents

Siding 

Window and door frames

Garage door

Other 

Residences 

Secondary Structures

• Sheds

• Barns 

• Car Ports

Attached Combustibles

• Decks

• Pergolas

• Awnings

Wildland 

Vegetation

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Wildland Fire Pre-Plan –

Butte County Fire Department

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 55. 73

Completed 

Fuel Break

Source: CAL FIRE. Used with permission. Overlay by NIST.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
74

Fuel Treatment Around Critical 

Infrastructure (Paradise Irrigation District)

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 56.

Fuel treatment and 

reduction conducted 

pre-fire, 2018 

Imagery: Google, Landsat/Copernicus. Overlays by NIST.

Note: Imagery captured before completion of fuel treatment

Fuel treatments can reduce exposure but must be maintained

Rapid post-fire vegetative growth in 

pre-fire fuel treatment areas

Photo by NIST (June 24, 2019).

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Wind and Terrain

• Jarbo Gap is known for its high 

winds [TD-003, TD-008]

• Wind* event + topography + dry 

fuels

• Rapid fire growth

• Fire could not be contained soon 

after ignition

* Wind was not extreme throughout the event (temporally and spatially)

75

Video courtesy of TD-005, 07:32. 

Used with permission.

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Extent/Size of Fire Front Reaching 

the Communities

76

Idealized relationship between 

ignition location, near or far from 

WUI Community, and fire front 

and ember exposures reaching 

the community. 

The wind is directed from left to 

right.

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Figure 57.

Ignition near WUI community

Ignition far from WUI community

Critical difference in 

community-scale exposure

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Community WUI Fire Hazard Framework

• WUI fire spread has significant impact on communities well 

beyond the loss of structures:

• community evacuation

• incident response

• WUI Fire Hazard Framework components:

NIST Camp Fire Report #3, Appendix C. 77

Standardized comprehensive community pre-fire 

hazard documentation is needed

• Community details 

• Demographics

• Vegetative and structural fuels

• Fire history

• Weather

• Notification / Evacuation

• Critical infrastructure

• Continuity of operations and 

government

• Response

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Recommendations

resident and first responder life safety

reduction of structural losses

78

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
Recommendations

R1. Characterize fire behavior that leads to burnovers and quantify burnover severity. This information 

will inform fuel setback guidance for primary egress arteries and provide technical input to 

evacuation plans. (Section 10.3, F15, F16, F17, F18)

R2. Develop technical guidance to quantify parcel level exposures. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R3. Quantify fire spread within parcels with focus on fire exposures. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R4. Quantify exposures from adjacent parcels, specifically from neighboring structures, and develop 

design guidance for structure separation distances. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R5. Develop methodology to connect field-collected ember data, such as ember flux and size 

distribution, to laboratory scales and develop worst case ember exposure criteria. 

(Section 15.2, F7, F10, F11)

R6. Develop spacing/hardening cost benefit relationships for high energy release sources (fences, 

wood piles, sheds, vehicles, RVs, and residences) and target structures (residential and 

commercial). (Section 15.2, F20, F21, F22)

R7. Characterize the relationships among fire history, fuel treatments, and fire behavior. 

(Section 14.2, Section 15.1, F5, F6, F7, F8, F9, F10, F11, F12, F13, F17, F19, F21, F22)

R8. Develop a standardized methodology for assessing the exposures from ornamental vegetation. 

(Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

R9. Develop a plant list for vegetation with unacceptably high fire hazard for northern California and 

other locations with WUI fire risks. (Section 12.2, F20, F21, F22)

79

Introduction and 

Previous Case 

Studies

Camp Fire 

Overview

NIST Camp Fire 

Case Study

Pre-Fire 

Conditions

Fire Progression

Burnovers

General Fire 

Behavior

Primary Driving 

Factors

Recommendations
80

192 Contributors — THANK YOU!

Office of the State Fire Marshal Law Enforcement Emergency Medical Services

Damage Inspectors (DINS) Town of Paradise National Weather Service

Data Collectors Transportation Reviewers

Fire Departments Water Districts Public Affairs Office
81

Thank You

NIST Camp Fire Website:

https://www.nist.gov/el/fire-research-division-73300/wildlandurban-interface-fire-73305/nist-investigation-california

Report: https://doi.org/10.6028/NIST.TN.2135

Contact Information:

Alexander Maranghides

alexm@nist.gov

202-567-1634

NIST

Eric Link

eric.link@nist.gov

NIST