SOCIODEMOGRAPHIC 

AREAS OF 

JEFFERSON 

COUNTY
JEFFERSON COUNTY

AREA 1

A: 70793

B: 48317

AREA 3

A: 151, 551

B: 122,656

AREA 2

A: 41578

B: 72910

AREA 4

A: 101,725

B: 131,970

STAGE 1 PARTICIPANTS RECRUITMENT 0.32 % OF TOTAL POPULATION FIXED PROPORTION

RANDOMIZATION

STAGE 2: RACE % WHITE: 1A, 28; 1B, 45; 2A, 77: 2B, 93; 3A, 80; 3B, 75; 4A, 91; 4B, 86. FIXED PROPORTION

STAGE 3: AGE 20-35 , 36-60 61-90 FIXED PROPORTION

1200 Males and 1200 Females STAGE 4: SEX FIXED NUMBER

229 165 NW

156 86 NW

135 32 NW

236 17 NW

490 94 NW

396 99 NW

329 29 NW

427 60 NW

# to enroll

* NW = Non White – Blacks, Hispanic, and Asians
Measurement of Coronavirus in Wastewater

Wastewater results must correspond to community prevalence

Need for reliable estimates of disease prevalence and wastewater abundance
APPROACH

A stratified sample of households was selected after 

allocating the sample proportional to the total population of 

the sector

Sampling frame of household was based on addresses 

derived from the US Postal Service delivery files

Within each sector, the addresses were stratified by 

whether they lived in a census Block Group with a high 

proportion that are non-White. Households were then 

sampled with a higher sampling rate for those living in 

Block Groups with a high proportion of non-White persons.

For each wave - 25,000 – 35,000 invitations were mailed.

Response rate was around 3 %

Additional participants from convenience sampling
RANDOM SAMPLING OF JEFFERSON COUNTY

Invitations: 32,000

Responses: 1576

Volunteers: 632

Total tested: 2,208

SEPT 2020
RANDOM SAMPLING OF JEFFERSON COUNTY

SEPT 2020

RANDOM SAMPLING

Serology

Total: 1576 percent positive – 4.44 (95% CI: 2.8-6.9)

In Jefferson county = 34,044 (21,469 – 52,906)

Reported = 17,516

PCR

Total: 1550, percent positive – 0.20 (0.06 -0.62)

In Jefferson County = 1,533 (460 - 4,753)

Reported (average) = 707; (total = 7787) Mortality Rate = # deaths/infections =326/34,4044

=0.09%
INFECTION RATES

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

300 1,200 WAVE 1

WAVE 2WAVE 3

13,200 (2%)

WAVE 3B

23,562 (3.57%) WAVE 4

12,936 (1.96%)

1,240 (0.18%) WAVE 5
ANTIBODY POSITIVITY RATE

REPORTED CASES

% Antibody 

positive 

population

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21

26,400

45,540

WAVE 1

WAVE 2WAVE 3

29,040

4000 17,516 20,500

73,656

48,228 WAVE 3B

WAVE 4

118,800

74,015

121,820

81,630

Most publicly 

available data 

underestimate 

prevalence
Contemporaneous 

waste water sampling 

and randomized 

community testing

In 8 different zones of 

the city

Sampling Frequency 

– Twice a week at 20 

different sites

Community Testing –

Once every eight 

weeks

Waste Water Sampling In Jefferson County


9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

9/21 11/9 12/28 2/15 4/5

SH634TH7WI17KE16

MU8LO11

FLFO4HICR5

NE12IN13

WO9AS10

PI14PR15

CECR3

Wastewater Sampling

Trends by Zone

2020/09/21 –

2021/04/21
CORRESPONDENCE BETWEEN WASTEWATER ESTIMATES AND 

COMMUNITY PREVALENCE

WAVE 1WAVE 2

WAVE 3WAVE 4

WAVE 5

WAVE 6

WAVE 7

WAVE 8

PREVALENCE (RANDOM SAMPLING

WASTEWATER ESTIMATE
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

Christina Lee Brown Envirome Institute:

Ted Smith, Ph.D. 

Rochelle Holm, Ph.D.,

Ray Yeager, Ph.D.,

Shesh Rai, Ph.D.,

Joe Moore, Ph.D.,

Rachel Keith, R.N., Ph.D.

Alok R. Amraotkar, M.D.,., 

Barbra Cave, R.N., Ph.D.

Krystal Harmorsky, Ph.D., 

David Hoetker,

Rick Strehl,

Jacob Ziegler,

Mamata Chaudhari,

Dan Riggs 

Center for Predictive Medicine:

Joshua Fuqua, Ph.D.,

Kenneth Palmer, Ph.D., 

Saurabh Kumar, Ph.D.

Genomics Core:

Wolfgang Zacharias, Ph.D.

Mei Zhang, Ph.D.

Sabine Waigel

Bioinformatics Core: 

Eric Rouchka, D.Sc

Microbiology & Immunology:

Kevin Sokoloski, PhD

Westat:

J. Michael Brick, Ph.D.

Funding

Louisville Metro Government LMPHW, Commonwealth of Kentucky DPH/DOC, James Graham Brown Foundation, Owsley Brown II 

Family Foundation, Foundation for a Healthy Kentucky, Centers for Disease Control

Louisville Metropolitan Sewer District:

Daymond Tally

Louisville Metro Public Health & Wellness:

Sarah Moyer, M.D.

William Altman, J.D.

Arizona State University:

Rolf Halden, Ph.D.

Arvind Varsani, Ph.D

Erin Driver, Ph.D.

The Ohio State University:

Mark Weir, Ph.D.

Grzegorz	Rempala,	Ph.D.