Waleed Abdalati

University of Colorado Boulder

NASA Advisory Council

Climate Priority Focus Area

SENTINEL-6B

AURA

CALIPSO

GRACE-FO (2)

PACE

SWOT

ISS INSTRUMENTS

MISSIONS

LANDSAT 7

TERRA

AQUA CLOUDSAT

SUOMI NPP

LANDSAT 8

GPM

OCO-2

SMAP

CYGNSS (8) NISTAR, EPIC

ICESAT-2

GEDI

EMIT

ECOSTRESS

SENTINEL-6

MICHAEL FREILICH

NISAR

LANDSAT-9

OCO-3

CLARREO-PF

GEOCARB*

TSIS-1

TEMPO

LIS

SAGE III

MAIA*

TSIS-2*

GLIMR*

2010

2005

2000

1995

2015

2020

2025

PREFIRE (2)

INCUS*

TROPICS (6)

LANDSAT NEXT* ESO-1, 2, 3, 4*

Senior Review 2023 & 2026

All blue and green missions 

are programmatically “safe” 

at least until senior review

Panel is convened to evaluate 

the scientific performance of 

each mission and the 

continued relevance of each 

mission to the NASA Science 

Strategic Plan. Performance 

factors include scientific 

merit, national needs, the 

technical status of the 

mission, and budget 

requirements.
Observable Mission(s)/Instrument(s) Expected 

through3

Comments

High Res Land Cover ASTER, Landsat 8, 9, Next ~2033 Since 1972; evolving to 25 bands

Radiation Budget CERES (6), Libera (EV-C on 

JPSS-3) ~2032 Radiation budget measurements since 1997 (TRMM)

Total brightness and spectral 

Irradiance 

TSIS-1, TSIS-2

~2028

continuation of irradiance measurements 

begun in 1978

SST, land characteristics, ice and 

snow, etc. 

MODIS, VIIRS, SBG/ESO ~2037Latest on record is JPSS-4; continuity since 

1999

Sea surface height Sentinal-6 Michael Freilich, 

Sentinel 6-B ~2030

Continues multi-decadal record of SSH and 

related parameters

Ozone Aura, OMPS, TEMPO, SAGE-III, 

JPSS-2,3,4 ~2037 Mix of stratosphere, troposphere, and profiling

Sustained Observables1,2

1. I am oversimplifying

2. Observed parameter does not ensure it is observed the way it is desired for certain applications

3. Based on NASA’s estimated launch dates of latest missions and five-year life
Observable (DS Designated) Mission(s)/

Instrument(s)

Expected 

through3 Comments

Cloud structure, height, optical properties, 

precipitation state

MISR, Cloudsat, Calipso, 

CCP/ESO ~2035 Other instruments observe cloud cover, cloud ice, etc. 

Aerosol properties and profiles and cloud 

properties

MISR, Calipso, PACE, 

A/ESO ~2035 Other instruments observe aerosol optical properties

Changing mass distribution within and 

among the Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, 

groundwater, and ice sheets

GRACE-FO, MC/ESO ~2035 Potentially no gap, depending on life and 

launch of Mass Change

Surface Deformation and Change: 

Earthquakes and landslides to ice sheets 

and permafrost

NiSAR, SDC/ESO ~2035 History of success with international 

partnerships. 

Earth Surface Biology and Geology: 

ground/water, temperature, snow 

reflectivity, active geologic processes, 

vegetation traits, and algal biomass

MODIS, VIIRS, ASTER, 

SBG/ESO ~2035 Robust history of spectral imaging, limited history with hyperspectral

Sustained Observables1,2

1. I am oversimplifying

2. Observed parameter does not ensure it is observed the way it is desired for certain applications

3. Based on NASA’s estimated launch dates of latest missions and five-year life
Mission Observable Measurement Approach Date

Cloudsat profiles of cloud: structure, liquid water, 

optical properties

Nadir-looking radar ≥ 2023

Calipso profiles of cloud: structure, liquid water, 

optical properties

Atmospheric Lidar and Multipurpose imaging VIS/IR 

radiometer ≥ 2023

Suomi NPP Atmospheric temperature and moisture 

profiles, ozone profiles, radiation budget, 

SST, Surface imaging

Broadband radiometer (CERES), SW scanning 

spectrometer (OMPS) and IR spectrometer (CrIS), 

imaging spectrometer (VIIRS), absorption band 

microwave radiometer (ATMS)

≥ 2023

GPM precipitation Microwave imager and precipitation radar ≥ 2023

OCO-2 Carbon Dioxide High resolution spectrometer ≥ 2023

SMAP Soil Moisture Radiometer (active sensor failed) ≥ 2023

DISCOVR Irradiance and outgoing radiation Imaging vis/IR radiometer (EPIC); solar irradiance 

monitor (NISTAR ≥ 2023

CYGNSS Ocean Roughness (windspeed); cyclone 

evolution and formation

Direct and reflected GPS signals ≥ 2023

GRACE-FO Mass movement on Earth Inter-satellite ranging ≥ 2023

Missions in the NASA Program of Record
Mission Observable Measurement Approach Date4

ICESat-2 Ice elevation change, and sea ice thickness Multi-beam laser altimeter ≥ 2023

Sentinel-6 

Michael Freilich

Primary: Sea surface height; 

Secondary: tropospheric temp. and humidity Radar Altimeter and GNSS ≥ 2025

SWOT SSH and inland water height for 100-m rivers and 

1 km2 lakes. Ka-band radar interferometry. > 2026

TROPICS Thermodynamics of the troposphere and 

precipitation structure for storm systems

4 cubesats (originally six) in 2 planes 

- Absorption-band microwave 

radiometer/spectrometer

2023

TEMPO monitor daily variations in ozone, nitrogen 

dioxide, and other key elements of air pollution UV and visible spectrometer 2023

Prefire Thermal emissions of cloud cover as well as sea 

ice and ice sheets meltwater

Miniaturized thermal infrared 

spectrometers on two CubeSat 

satellites

2024

NiSAR Geology, Ice, movement, vegetation L- and S-band SAR (interferometry) 2024

Missions in the NASA Program of Record

4. Blue boxes are currently operational missions and the dates given indicate expected end of mission science, contingent on functionality and outcomes of the 

Senior Review Process; Green boxes are planned missions and the dates given are planned launch dates. 
Mission Observable Measurement Approach Date4

MAIA sizes, compositions and quantities of 

particulate matter in air pollution

Multi-angle Imager for Aerosols; 

Multichannel/direction/polarization radiometer 2024

PACE Ocean color, clouds, and aerosols Spectrometer and polarimeter 2024

TSIS-2 Total brightness and spectral irradiance Solar irradiance monitor 2025

SENTINEL-6B sea surface height; changes over time; 

seasonal changes; geoid

Radar Altimeter and GNSS

2026

GLIMR* 

Geosynchronous 

Littoral Imaging 

and Monitoring 

Radiometer

coastal phytoplankton; oil spills; etc. in 

region centered at Gulf of Mexico

Hyperspectral radiometer

2027

INCUS Factors governing occurrences of convective 

storms, heavy precipitation, and clouds

Radar on three spacecraft, one also with a 

radiometer 2027

4. Blue boxes are currently operational missions and the dates given indicate expected end of mission science, contingent on functionality and outcomes of the 

Senior Review Process; Green boxes are planned missions and the dates given are planned launch dates. 

Missions in the NASA Program of Record
Missions on ISS in the NASA Program of Record

4. Blue boxes are currently operational missions and the dates given indicate expected end of mission science, contingent on functionality and outcomes of the 

Senior Review Process; Green boxes are planned missions and the dates given are planned launch dates. 

Mission Observable Date4

LIS explore processes that cause lightning; building on 17-yr record from TRMM Lightning imager ≥ 2023

SAGE-III build on record dating back to 1979; monitoring ozone, primarily, plus 

aerosols, clouds, water vapor, pressure and temperature, nitrogen dioxide, 

nitrogen trioxide, and chlorine dioxide.

Limb-scanning SW 

spectrometer ≥ 2023

ECOSTRESS plant–water dynamics and future ecosystem changes with climate Thermal infrared 

radiometer ≥ 2023

GEDI ecosystem structure and dynamics for carbon cycle and biodiversity; carbon 

balance

lidar

≥ 2023

OCO-3 Distribution and changes of CO2 from natural and urban sources High resolution 

spectrometer ≥ 2023

EMIT map the mineral composition of arid dust source regions via imaging 

spectroscopy in the visible and short-wave infrared. Will improve forecasts 

of the role of mineral dust in the radiative forcing (warming or cooling) of 

the atmosphere.

Visible and IR 

spectroscopy

>2023

CLARREO-PF Sunlight reflected from Earth Surface Spectrometer 2024
1999

2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015201620172018201920202021202220232024202520262027202820292030203120322033

Terra

Aqua

Aura

CloudSat

CALIPSO

Suomi NPP

Landsat 8

GPM

OCO-2

SMAP

NISTAR & EPIC on DSCOVR

CYGNSS

LIS on ISS

SAGE III on ISS

TSIS-1 on ISS

GRACE-FO

ECOSTRESS on ISS

ICESat-2

GEDI on ISS

OCO-3 on ISS

Sentinel-6 Michael Freilich

Landsat 9

EMIT on ISS

SWOT

TEMPO

TROPICS

MAIA*

PACE

CLARREO Pathfinder on ISS

PREFIRE

NISAR (ESO)

TSIS-2

Sentinel-6 B

GLIMR*

INCUS*

EVI-6*

SBG* (ESO)

Mass Change*

Libera on JPSS-3

ESE-1*

AOS-I* (ESO)

Landsat Next* (ESO)

SDC* (ESO)

ESE-2*

AOS-P* (ESO)

2023 Senior 

Review Report

LAUNCH DATE TBD

(PRE) FORMULATION

IMPLEMENTATION

OPERATING

EXTENDED

KEY

PRIMARY OPERATIONS

NASA FUNDED EXTENDED OPERATIONS

OPERATIONS PAUSE

PROPOSED EXTENDED OPERATIONS

PARTNER FUNDED EXTENDED OPERATIONS

NASA EARTH SCIENCE 

FLIGHT PROGRAM 

PORTFOLIO

10 Year Look Ahead
Water and Energy in 

the Atmosphere

Particles in the

Atmosphere

Large-scale Mass

Redistribution

AEROSOLS

CLOUDS, CONVECTION

AND PRECIPITATION

MASS CHANGE

SURFACE BIOLOGY

AND GEOLOGY

SURFACE DEFORMATION

AND CHANGE

Earth Surface & 

Ecosystems

Earth Surface Dynamics

INTERCONNECTED

CORE MISSIONS
Independent Review Board (IRB) Findings

Atmosphere Observing System (AOS)

• Combination of Clouds Convection & Precipitation (CCP) and Aerosols (A)

• Aerosol properties, aerosol vertical profiles, and cloud properties and effects on climate and air 

quality 

• Coupled cloud-precipitation state and dynamics for monitoring global hydrological cycle and 

understanding contributing processes including cloud feedback

• Innovative science, some technologies pose high risk to cost and schedule

• IRB does not expect the current configuration to fit in the cost box

Surface Biology and Geology (SBG)

• Earth surface geology and biology, ground/water temperature, snow reflectivity, active geologic 

processes, vegetation traits and algal biomass

• Designed to meet science objectives with limited risks to cost and schedule

• Will likely fit in the mission cost box
Independent Review Board (IRB) Findings

Mass Change (MC)

• Large-scale Earth dynamics measured by the changing mass distribution within and between the 

Earth’s atmosphere, oceans, ground water, and ice sheets

• High risk in the implementation (residual GRACE-FO Accelerometers, single string)

• Risk Mitigation will require additional resources (On the order of a few tens of $M)

Surface Deformation and Change

• Earth Surface Dynamics 

• Remaining in extended study phase to take advantage of NISAR mission lessons learned

• Not examined by the IRB
Budget Challenges

• Lingering effects of COVID

• Cost risks associated with the Earth System Observatory

• Omnibus budget is >$200M less for Earth Science than President’s 

Budget Request 

• Prospect of Continuing Resolution in 2024 will present further budget 

challenges

• Extended missions come at a cost 

• Resources not available to fully implement intended program

- Delay planned missions?

- Terminate extended missions?
Program Mitigation and Guidance from Decadal Survey

1. First delay large missions: delays have already occurred. 

2. Second delay medium-sized Designated missions, unless these delays 

threaten critical continuity measurements: 

a. Surface Deformation and Change

b. Mass Change: question about critical continuity

3. Should continuity be threatened, the cadence of medium-sized competitive 

missions should be reduced but not to fewer than two competitions in the 

decade: already down to three from the envisioned four

4. The budgets for Ventures and research and applications should not be 

reduced by more than 5% from their historical averages: not much in relative 

dollars to capture here

5. For budget challenges that exceed this capacity, consultation with CESAS is 

required

15
Difficult Choices

• Routine vs. innovative measurements to advance science

- Philosophical question for NASA

• Delay additional designated missions

- Significant budget relief

- Tremendous loss of much-needed information

• Further delay competitive missions

- Lack of community opportunities

- Reduced small-mission innovation potential

• Terminate extended missions

- Not realizing the remaining benefits of past investments

• Increase risk posture

- Carries great risk for climate measurements

16
Earth Science at NASA is Much More Than Missions

Research

• Turning observations into knowledge and understanding

Applications

• Translating products into usable information

• Working with stakeholders to identify needs and usable types of data

Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO)

• Developing and maturing technologies for future observations

Data Systems

• Maximizing use and usability of data acquired 
Green Aviation

NASA’s Sustainable Flight National Partnership

https://www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/sustainable-aviation-np/

Hi-Rate Composite Aircraft Manufacturing (HiCAM)

• Building lighter aircraft from composite materials increasing 

efficiency

• Strength and light weight of composites potentially allow for 

development of new aerodynamic shapes when compared to 

current metallic structures

• Anticipated number of new commercial aircraft in the next 20 

years is 40,000, creating numerous opportunities

https://www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/nasa-to-increase-sustainable-aircraft-manufacturing-with-hicam
Green Aviation

Hybrid Thermally Efficient 

Core (HyTEC)

• Development of a smallcore turbofan jet engine 

to increase efficiency

• Less air enters the core 

to power the fan and 

more bypasses the core 

to provide thrust

• New core materials 

needed to operate at 

higher temperatures and 

pressures 

Cross-section of a turbofan jet engine showing the components of the HyTEC

project’s smaller engine core, with the compressor, combustor, and turbine 

noted. By shrinking the engine core, better fuel efficiency can be achieved.

Credits: NASA

https://www.nasa.gov/aeroresearch/nasas-hytec-to-help-jets-burn-less-fuel
Green Aviation

Managing airport operations to improve efficiency of fuel use

• Series of three Airspace 

Technology Demonstration (ATD) 

projects

• ATD-1: Better control of descent and 

increased predictability of landing 

times

• ATD-2: Optimized management of 

operations from gate to sky to 

minimize time and energy usage

• ATD-3: Efficient corrections to travel 

routes in the face of bad weather. 

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/nasa-delivers-on-making-gate-to-gate-flights-more-efficient

Credit: Getty Images
Key Takeaways

• NASA’s Earth Science mission portfolio has provided and 

continues to provide highly valuable information on 

understanding and dealing with climate change

• Long-standing measurements are approaching end of life, 

presenting data continuity challenges

• Resources are required to sustain existing missions into extended phases, which 

impacts the rest of the program

• Budget pressures put innovation and sustained measurements at risk

• Decadal Survey-recommended mitigation strategies have largely been exhausted

• Current budget will likely not sustain planned program

• Difficult choices to be made

• Encouraging and exciting activities on the Green Aviation front