SPACE STUDIES BOARD

Science Prioritization at the U.S. 

National Academies of Sciences, 

Engineering, and Medicine

James H. Crocker

Vice-Chair Space Studies Board

Vice President and General Manager (ret) 

Lockheed Martin Space Systems Co.
Outline

• Brief history of the Academies and the 

Space Studies Board (SSB)

• SSB recent activities/reports and their 

Impact

• The Decadal Studies Process of the 

National Academies

• Conclusion
2

The National Academy of Sciences

"Amid the din of war, the heat of party, the deviltries of politics, and the poisons of

hypocrisy, science will be inaudible, incapable, incoherent, and inanimate." 

Benjamin Peirce,1863

The city of Washington, 1869. 

Photo courtesy the Library of Congress
Creation of the Space Studies Board 

June 26, 1958
Current SSB Members

• Fiona Harrison, Chair, California 

Institute of Technology

• James H. Crocker, Vice Chair, Lockheed 

Martin Space Systems Company (retired)

• Gregory P. Asner, Carnegie Institution for 

Science

• Jeff M. Bingham, Consultant

• Adam Burrows, Princeton University

• Mary Lynne Dittmar, Dittmar Associates

• Jeff Dozier, University of California, 

Santa Barbara

• Joseph Fuller Jr., Futron Corporation (retired)

• Sarah Gibson, National Center for 

Atmospheric Research

• Victoria Hamilton, Southwest Research 

Institute

• Chryssa Kouveliotou, The George 

Washington University

• Dennis P. Lettenmaier, University of 

California, Los Angeles

• Rosaly M. Lopes, Jet Propulsion 

Laboratory

• Stephen J. Mackwell, Universities 

Space Research Association

• David J. McComas, Princeton 

University

• Larry Paxton, Johns Hopkins 

University, Applied Physics 

Laboratory

• Eliot Quataert, University of 

California, Berkeley

• Barbara Sherwood Lollar, University 

of Toronto

• Harlan E. Spence, University of New 

Hampshire

• Mark H. Thiemens, University of 

California, San Diego

• Erika Wagner, Blue Origin

• Paul Wooster, Space Exploration 

Technologies

• Edward L. Wright, University of 

California, Los Angeles
Standing Committees and Co-Chairs

• Committee on Astrobiology and Planetary Science, 

Christopher House, Pennsylvania State University & 

William McKinnon, Washington University 

• Committee on Astronomy and Astrophysics,Steven

Ritz, University of California, Santa Cruz, Vicky 

Kalogera, Northwestern University,

• Committee on Biological and Physical Sciences in 

Space, Elizabeth Cantwell, Arizona State University, 

Robert Ferl, University of Florida 

• Committee on Earth Science and Applications from 

Space, Chelle Gentemann, Earth and Space Research, 

Steven Running, University of Montana

• Committee on Solar and Space Physics, Sarah 

Gibson, National Center for Atmospheric Research, 

Maura Hagan, Utah State University
Selected Studies and Major Reports
4

DECADALS SURVEYS MID-DECADAL ASSESSMENTS 

Solar and 

Space 

Physics 

Midterm 

Underway
RECENT DECADALS AND MID-DECADAL REPORTS

Astronomy and Astrophysics

• Astro2020 - Underway

• Midterm Assessment released 

Aug 2016.

• New Worlds, New Horizons in 

Astronomy & Astrophysics, 

2010-2022

Earth Science and Applications 

from Space

• Thriving on Our Changing 

Planet: A Decadal Strategy for 

Earth Observation from Space, 

2017-2027, released Jan. 2018

• Midterm Assessment of 2007 

Decadal Survey released 2012.

Planetary Sciences

• Midterm Assessment released Aug. 

2018

• Vision and Voyages for Planetary 

Science in the Decade 2013-2022

Solar and Space Physics (Heliophysics)

• A Decadal Strategy for Solar and 

Space Physics - Underway

• Solar and Space Physics: A Science 

for a Technological Society 2013-

2022

Biological and Physical Sciences

• Midterm Assessment released Jan 

2018.

• Decadal Survey on Biological and 

Physical Sciences in Space, 2012-

2022
What Leaders Say About NAS reports

"With the variety of challenges facing our nation today - whether it is 

emergency preparedness, drug safety, or the care of our military 

veterans – the Institute of Medicine serves as a trusted source of 

thoughtful, authoritative deliberation."

Michael O. Leavitt, former governor of Utah, secretary of the 

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and 

administrator, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2009

"I commend the National Academy of Sciences on this outstanding 

report. NASA has the experience, the technology, and now it has 

the money. It's time to fix Hubble -- Congress and the American 

people expect nothing less."

Sen. Barbara Mikulski, commenting on the report Assessment 

of Options for Extending the Life of Hubble Space Telescope, 

Dec. 9, 2004
Purpose of the Decadal Survey 

• To assess the current state of knowledge 

in a specific discipline

• To identify and prioritize the most 

important scientific questions for the 

next decade

• To prioritize the ground-based and 

space-based missions and activities that 

can address these questions. 
Cost and technical evaluation 

(CATE)

• Inclusion of independent assessment of likely cost and 

technical risk associated with priority mission concepts 

• All the surveys to date have engaged the Aerospace 

Corporation to conduct independent assessments using 

their proprietary CATE methodology. 

• The CATE analyses were typically briefed to the survey 

committee immediately following the final set of panel 

meetings

• The results of the CATE analyses of priority missions 

identified by the last three decadal studies allowed the 

survey committees to make last-minute adjustments to 

some mission concepts. 
Leadership Selection of those who:

• Have a broad and balanced view of 

astronomy/astrophysics

• Are well-respected by the community and seen as fair

• Have demonstrated leadership ability

• Is a consensus builder who is able to stimulate others to 

work collaboratively

• Is willing to shepherd the study through completion and 

years following release of the report when it serves to 

guide the field forward

• Is not heavily involved in any of the major projects 

anticipated to be considered for prioritization by survey 

committee 

The NAS invites nominations of theorists, observers 

and experimentalists, and particularly encourages 

candidates reflecting the diversity of the 

astrophysics/astronomy fields
14

Notional Timeline-Original*

Assumptions - 24-month Study, 1 Set of Panels

Survey Committee

• Committee appointed

• Study structure finalized

• Panels assembled

Panels Formed

• Conduct work over 7 months

• Panel reports through review 

in 2 months

Panel Reports Delivered, 

Survey Committee begins 

final deliberations

Report Review 

Begins

Report Delivery

* Slight shift because of funding timing

Thank you
SPACE STUDIES BOARD

Background
Outline

• Overview of NAS capabilities

• Decadal Survey Process

• Conclusion
Advancing the Discussion

• The National Academies also convene workshops, symposia, and other events 

that bring together experts and practitioners to consider issues related to 

science, engineering, and medicine and their implications for policy and 

practice. In a space free from partisan pressures and preset agendas, 

participants share their own research and perspectives and also look beyond 

them—making connections within and across disciplines, sharpening 

questions, sparking new ideas, and exploring possible solutions.

• Some workshops focus on specialized areas, while others tackle big 

questions. When necessary, we can swiftly gather the nation’s top minds to 

address matters of urgent importance, such as how to combat an emerging 

virus or respond to a natural disaster.

• When there is a need for ongoing dialogue, our roundtables and forums—

which are organized around a topic—offer stakeholders an opportunity to 

build relationships and unravel complicated issues over time.

• Regardless of the format, these gatherings go beyond bringing people 

together. They advance conversation, catalyze movement around an issue, 

and generate bold ideas.
Connecting New Frontiers

• In addition to our landmark studies and convening activities, the National 

Academies pursue a range of initiatives to strengthen the scientific, 

engineering, and medical fields and their capacity to contribute to human 

welfare. This includes supporting fellowship programs that foster the career 

development of young scientists and collaborating with the academies of 

other nations that advance science globally.

• We strive to bring the benefits of science and technology to the economic, 

cultural, and industrial life of the nation and to the health and well-being of 

its citizens. In the same way the institution contributed to landmarks of 

American achievement such as the Apollo space program and the Human 

Genome Project, we continue to kindle new frontiers in science, 

engineering, and medicine.

• Our activities help marshal new knowledge as it develops, identifying how it 

can be used to meet the needs of the public and decision makers— helping 

move us all toward a healthier, safer, and more prosperous future.
Free Access for All

• Individuals around the world benefit from open access to 

our thousands of publications at WWW.NAP.EDU. Each 

year we receive thousands of comments from readers 

about how they plan to use our work to enhance their 

lives and communities. For example, a reader recently 

told us, “I am a trauma surgeon working in Bogotá, 

Colombia, and this material will be very useful in 

organizing prehospital and hospital trauma care in order 

to prevent deaths.”

• By applying our insights to a range of challenges, readers 

have helped advance change, improve their 

communities, and share knowledge with others.
Affecting Policy and Practice

• Our reports and convening activities have a wide range of 

impacts on policy and practice, on scales ranging from 

the global to the individual. They guide the development 

of federal laws and regulations, improve the 

effectiveness of government programs, shape the 

direction of research fields, and inform public knowledge 

and dialogue about issues of critical importance.

• Decadal Surveys are a jewel in the crown of the Space 

Studies Board because they allow the community to come 

to a consensus about the scientific priorities for the next 

decade. This has proved so invaluable that today, all 

four SMD Science areas use Decadal Surveys as their 

guide.
SSB Discipline Committees

• The Standing/Discipline committees provide 

strategic direction and oversee activities of 

ad hoc study committees, interact with 

sponsors, and serve as a communications 

medium between the government and the 

scientific community.
Decadal Surveys Background

• Over the past 50 years there have been 6 astronomy surveys, 2 

each for planetary science and for solar and space physics, and 1 

each for Earth science and applications from space and for life 

and physical sciences research in space.

• The NASA Authorization Acts of 2005 and 2008 provided a formal 

legislative mandate for decadal surveys in each NASA science 

area. 

• The 2005 act also mandated National Research Council (NRC) 

reviews of NASA’s performance in each discipline at 5-year 

intervals (Public Law 109-155). 

• The 2008 act called for “independent estimates of the life cycle 

costs and technical readiness of missions assessed in the decadal 

surveys whenever possible” (Public Law 110-422) and for 

identifying conditions or events that might trigger a 

reexamination of the survey’s priorities.
Decadal Suveys Input

• All of the surveys utilized broad 

community input via multiple town 

meetings, solicitation of scientific or 

mission-oriented white papers, and other 

outreach efforts.

Each and every survey conducted since the 

first in astronomy in 1964 has employed a 

modified organizational structure and 

study methodology to fit their particular 

situation.
Decadal Surveys Study Process

• Alternating meetings of the survey committees and 

their supporting panels 

– The public start of the decadal study process typically occurs with the 

first meeting of the survey committee. Thereafter, meetings of the 

panels and survey committee alternate. Survey committees typically 

hold five or six full meetings plus numerous additional conference calls. 

Panels typically meet three times each (plus additional conference calls, 

as necessary) and complete their work prior to the third or fourth 

meeting of the survey committee. 

• Community input via the solicitation of white papers

– All four recent decadal surveys included a mechanism by which members 

of the relevant scientific communities could submit white papers 

discussing important scientific, technical, or programmatic issues. The 

solicitation typically occurs soon after the first meeting of the survey 

committee. The submission deadline is timed so that the white papers 

are available for consideration by the supporting panels soon after their 

first meetings. 
Decadal Survey Structure

• All of the surveys were led by a Steering Committee, 

consisting of 15-20 senior members of the relevant 

disciplines, including scientific, programmatic, technical 

and policy. 

– The Steering Committee is responsible for the overall conduct of 

the study, for aggregating and adjudicating panel 

recommendations, and for drafting top-level conclusions and 

recommendations.

– They drew input from a set of 10-15 member Survey Panels, 

some of which were discipline-oriented and others of which were 

organized on cross-cutting themes. 

– Chairs of the Survey Panels are members of the Steering 

Committee.
What use is a Decadal to Agencies?

Page 39, Lessons learned in Decadal Planning in Space Science: Summary of a Workshop: The National Academies 

Press, ISBN 978-0-309-29067-8, 2013

Why does NASA care about the decadal surveys? The answer is that they are both swords and shields. They are

swords because a high decadal ranking provides a program manager with an argument supporting a new

activity. They are shields because they protect highly ranked programs from attack. The first decadal

survey in any discipline is always difficult. The 2007 Earth science decadal survey was an amazing

achievement because nobody at NASA thought that that community could be “corralled.”

Hartman noted that there are plenty of areas for improvement. The issue of mission costing has

been raised multiple times so far. The NRC is not going to do a better job of costing their recommended

program than can NASA. It is an inherently difficult endeavor and a primary cause of many of the

criticisms leveled against NASA

From a NASA perspective, the principle challenge facing future decadal surveys is how to

maintain the NRC’s “golden glow” NASA and the NRC should each do what they do best. At one time,

the idea of decadal surveys containing only science priorities was attractive to Hartman. But now she is

convinced that such a decadal survey would be too vague to serve the role of both a sword and a shield.

While the future will be dominated by more and more complex science questions, those holding

the purse strings will be more and more focused on total cost and cost control. In such an environment, a

“three-worlds” approach might be best. That is, future surveys should formulate their programs in the

context of three budgetary scenarios. First is the “heavenly” world we all hope we have. Second is the

“nominal” world representing an extrapolation of currently prevailing circumstances. Third is the “evil”

world we do not want to experience. NASA would specify these budgetary scenarios, and there would be

sufficient spread between them to encompass all likely fiscal environments. Having NASA specify the

three scenarios in the statement of task for a new decadal survey would help protect the NRC’s reputation

and leave it free to do the things it does best.
Decadal Survey Impact

• Mid-Decadal Assessments have allowed the 

scientific community to have an open 

interchange with the Agencies responsible 

for implementing the Decadal Survey.

• DECISION RULES allow the Decadal Survey 

to set priorities for unexpected changes in 

the environment (mission over-runs, 

congressional budget changes, etc.)

– Most recently used effectively in the Solar & 

Space Physics Decadal Survey with Solar Probe.

– Past effective uses include Mars Sample Return 

and Europa orbiter.
CONCLUSION

The Decadal Survey process, run 

by the NAS, produces a consensus 

report on US science priorities for 

astronomy & astrophysics, earth 

sciences and applications, solar 

and space physics, planetary 

sciences and microgravity sciences 

in space.