AEROSPACE REPORT NO.

ATR-2023-01082

NASA Futures Roundtables: Exploring Challenges and 

Opportunities for NASA in the Emerging Environment 

November 16, 2022 

Kara Cunzeman1, Sarah Georgin2, Joseph Gangestad3, Lael Woods4, 

Paula Pool4

, and Silvia Chavarin5

1

Strategy and Program Support, Center for Space Policy and Strategy 

2

System of Systems Engineering Office, Architecture and Design Subdivision 

3

Astrodynamics Department, System Analysis and Simulation Subdivision 

4

Advanced Science and Engineering Assessments, Strategic Assessments, Studies, and Projects Division

5

Data Science and Artificial Intelligence, Integrated Data, and Applications Subdivision 

Prepared for:

Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration

300 E St SW

Washington, DC 20546 

Contract No. 80GSFC19D0011 

Authorized by: Civil Systems Group

PUBLIC RELEASE IS AUTHORIZED. 
 

i 

All product names, logos, brands, trademarks and registered trademarks are property of their 

respective owners. All company, product and service names used in this website are for identification 

purposes only. Use of these names, trademarks and brands does not imply endorsement.
 

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge the contributions of many in this study. We thank all the participants who 

shared their time and thoughtful insights. While there are many others who contributed greatly, we 

specifically want to cite the support of NASA Associate Administrator Dr. Bhavya Lal and Mr. Kenneth 

Wright of NASA’s Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS) for their leadership and support 

enabling us to gain a diverse set of inputs for this work. Finally, the authors recognize the contributions of 

the many Aerospace and NASA reviewers/teammates, whose comments resulted in a significantly 

improved report.
 

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Executive Summary 

Today’s operating environment both on Earth and in space is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous 

(VUCA)1

. This VUCA environment, in which NASA operates today and will continue to operate in the 

coming decades, is fundamentally different than in previous periods due to the increasing and diverse use 

of space by commercial companies, the emergence of new space-faring countries, and the increased use 

of space by nations with long-established space programs. Strategic foresight is an approach for 

navigating this uncertainty, as it enables better decision-making under ambiguity through systematic 

thinking about the future. Foresighting leverages a diverse set of tools and techniques to challenge 

assumptions about the future. Strategic foresight helps envision potential future states, identify key events 

and decision points, and integrate uncertainty into planning processes. This enables organizations to drive

towards preferred future states and increase resiliency to disruption. Although thinking about the future is 

an important piece of the process, foresight is truly about what organizations do today.

In its 2021 annual report2 evaluating NASA’s strategy, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), a 

federal advisory committee that reports to NASA and Congress, published the following finding:

NASA should develop a strategic vision for the future of space exploration and 

operations that encompasses at least the next twenty years, including potential 

alternative scenarios, that is driven by how the Agency is going to understand and 

manage risk in the more complex environment in which it will be operating.3

The purpose of this six-month study was to support NASA’s response to this finding and to inform its 

future strategic planning efforts by (1) developing future scenarios focused on potential future states in 

2040 and beyond, (2) investigating candidate strategic options that may be most resilient to these diverse 

scenarios, and (3) extracting from the scenarios the key questions that NASA leadership may consider 

when developing resilient strategic plans today. Foresighting was chosen as the preferred method for this 

study. Foresighting enables informed decision-making in an environment of uncertainty by helping

leaders to envision possible futures and react to them today. This study did not attempt to develop 

technological roadmaps or to provide a current state and future direction of a scientific discipline, mature 

processes already exist for these purposes at NASA (e.g., decadal surveys). In addition, the composition 

of an explicit response to the ASAP finding is out of scope for this study and shall be undertaken by 

NASA separately.

The foresighting process was executed in a collaborative environment, bringing together NASA-internal 

and external stakeholders in roundtables and interviews facilitated by Aerospace foresight experts. The 

Aerospace foresighting team worked with approximately 200 NASA staff and external participants. 

Roundtables included NASA employees from early career to senior staff and with a range of technical, 

managerial, and administrative roles. The interviews were conducted with NASA executive leadership. 

Roundtables with participants external to NASA included educators, graduate students, science fiction 

authors, space lawyers, social justice advocates, engineers from start-ups and Fortune 500 companies, 

space enthusiasts, and more. The roundtables and interviews included a series of individual and group 

exercises designed by the Aerospace foresighting team to elicit the participants’ knowledge and 

perspective on multiple topics pertinent to this study, including: trends and disruptors that will affect 

NASA’s future, whether or how NASA’s vision and mission should evolve in the coming decades, 

1 Warren Bennis and Burt Nanus, “Leaders: Strategies for Taking Charge,” 1985. 2 Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel Annual Report 2021, https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2021_asap_reporttagged.pdf, January 1, 2022. 3 Ibid., p. 11
 

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potential future states of the world, fears and dreams for the future of the space enterprise, and new 

definitions of discovery and exploration, among others.

This study was formulated around answering four questions posed by NASA. In this executive summary, 

we summarize the conclusions for each question. The main body of report provides greater detail on the 

methodology, the step-by-step analysis, and the raw inputs from the roundtables and other sources.

Question #1: What would be significant disruptions (technological, geopolitical, 

environmental, cultural, etc.) to the future world that NASA should plan for?

The roundtable exercises and interview questions allowed us to investigate drivers, trends, and emerging 

disruptors for the future world. Drivers, trends, and emerging disruptors determine the conditions (forces) 

that are actively shaping the current environment. A driver is a significant force pushing change, a trend

is a perceptible vector (with magnitude and direction) for which change is characterized, and an emerging

disruptor is a tangible manifestation in the present of what is possible to come (which may or may not 

scale into an emerging or established trend but offers a potential window into the future)4

. Participants in 

the roundtables and interviews provided a wide range of inputs on drivers, trends, and emerging 

disruptors that are indicating change in the areas of society, technology, economics, environment, politics, 

threat, and space (STEEPTS). These inputs were augmented with several additional sources including

Aerospace’s proprietary horizon scanning method (which leverages the ITONICS platform) for searching 

open literature and tracking trends and disruptors, the International Space University, and the natural 

language processing of approximately 50 documents, some provided by NASA on the future of space and 

aviation and others supplied by Aerospace on global futures.

The Aerospace team synthesized hundreds of inputs from the roundtables, interviews, and other sources 

into 20-30 overarching trends and disruptors in each major category (STEEPTS). Several trends and 

disruptors appeared in multiple categories, either directly or thematically, indicating their potential 

importance on the future operating environment. While all the trends and emerging disruptors are 

important to continue to monitor, the team identified nine significant high-level trends that merit in-depth

consideration for NASA future planning:

1. Commercial space activity: The increasing use of space for diverse purposes by commercial

companies is leading to new opportunities for NASA to source technologies, capabilities, and 

insights. On the other hand, the growing commercial viability for space companies may force 

NASA to reevaluate its mission, capabilities, and staffing portfolio. 

2. Increased focus on climate change: The effects of climate change are becoming more apparent 

with the increased frequency of intense storms, droughts, and heat waves, as well as with rising 

sea levels, and warming oceans. These climatic effects are increasing resource competition in 

countries with too much or too little water, but it is also providing opportunities, such as the 

opening of new shipping routes in the Arctic and expansion of agricultural zones.

3. Degree of connectivity and cybersecurity: The population is becoming more connected due to 

ubiquitous sensing and internet from space, leading to new social dynamics and the rise of 

increased cybersecurity needs.

4 Cunzeman, K. and Dickey, R. “Strategic Foresight for the Space Enterprise,” Center for Space Policy and Strategy, The 

Aerospace Corporation, https://csps.aerospace.org/papers/strategic-foresight-space-enterprise
 

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4. Synthetic biology: Genetic modification as a competitive advantage is becoming more apparent 

as companies like Monsanto launch new products, and synthetic biology is increasingly being 

used for human modification such as growing organs for humans.

5. Greater use of autonomous systems: Increased utilization of autonomous systems is most 

noticeable in attention-grabbing headlines about unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and selfdriving cars, but greater use of autonomous systems is greatly affecting businesses and 

governments.

6. Volatility of the domestic political environment: US domestic politics is in a period of increased

polarization and volatility as compared with previous decades. One relevant impact of the resulting 

unpredictability is the politicization of science and research. Agencies that perform scientific research

are under increasing scrutiny and their priorities may swing more readily as political administrations 

change.

7. Changes in international geopolitical environment: The international geopolitical environment is 

changing with respect to cooperation, competition, and conflict. For agencies that have many 

international partnerships, the change in geopolitical relationships (as well as the rise of new 

ones) can lead to large impacts and potentially put long-term projects at risk. This could also lead 

to a more contested mission environment as more nation-states expand into space.

8. Workforce of the future: The COVID-19 pandemic impacted the global workforce, with 

continuing ramifications in workers’ rights movements; increased demand for people to work 

from home; and infrastructure pressure changes, including greater computing/data requirements, 

differing pressures on support infrastructure within cities, and less commute infrastructure.

9. Supply chains and disruption: COVID-19 brought to light the lack of resilience within the supply 

chains that keep the United States operational. The lack of resilience causes, and will continue to 

cause, multi-country breakdowns in supply chains.

The complexity of the present and future environments cannot be sufficiently described by nine major 

trends alone and thus, the scenarios derived from the next question are critical to exploring the 

potential interactions between these major trends and many other emerging disruptors. These 

scenarios serve as the foundation for the rest of the project’s analysis. 

Question #2: What are the possible scenarios for the aerospace community and the broader 

technology world in the 2040s? 

The scenarios presented here explore the corner cases of the future, where organizational strategies will 

be most greatly stressed. To maximize their effectiveness for developing resilient organizational 

strategies, scenarios are intentionally thought-provoking and sometimes provocative, but they remain

within the realm of the (future) possible. The purpose of scenario development is not to predict the future, 

nor is it fruitful to assign probabilities or qualitative assessments of likelihood to different possible 

futures. The study leveraged the Four Futures model5

, originally conceived by Dr. James Dator at the 

University of Hawaii, which uses four archetypes of future storylines: (1) growth (business as usual, 

evolve the status quo into the future); (2) discipline (behaviors must adapt to growing internal or 

environmental limits); (3) decline (system degradation or failure modes as a crisis emerges); and (4) 

transform (game-changing disruptions with new technology, business, and/or societal factors). 

5 Dator, J. “ʽNew Beginnings’ Within a New Normal for the Four Futures,” Foresight, Vol. 16, No. 6, November 2014.
 

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Each scenario is based on a set of critical uncertainties about the future that use the trends and disruptors 

identified in Question #1 as inputs. In this study, the critical uncertainties used for scenario development 

were: 1) commercial space viability and sustainability, 2) Earth’s environmental stability, 3) domestic 

politics’ influence on NASA, 4) the human presence in space, 5) geopolitical stability, and 6) 

technological capability gamechangers for NASA. Each uncertainty could resolve into one of many

possible future states (e.g., commercial viability could range from boom to bust in the coming decades). 

The foresighting team tuned these critical uncertainties to a variety of possible combinations within the 

Four Futures model to create four diverse and credible scenarios. This deliberate approach ensures that 

the process explores corner cases of the possible future space, where strategic resilience is most needed.

The four scenarios each have a concise and evocative title and a three- or four-paragraph narrative that 

depicts a possible future consistent with the four archetypes. When reviewing these scenarios, the reader 

should resist the temptation to judge them on their likelihood. In fact, we expect that none of these 

scenarios will be fully realized in the future. Some parts of all of them are likely to occur in the coming 

decades, but we cannot know which parts. Consequently, the specific circumstances in the scenarios are 

not as important as the larger themes or challenges that emerge for NASA. These themes and their key 

focus questions are captured to provide NASA leadership with a starting point for vision-setting and goal 

prioritization in the formal strategy-development process. For the sake of brevity, the four scenarios are 

reproduced here in a much-abridged form with their key focus questions: 

1. Growth – Commercial Space in the Driver’s Seat. The private sector commoditizes human 

spaceflight between the Earth and Moon and industrializes low Earth orbit (LEO). Global 

mobility on Earth is on the rise thanks to the scaling of sub-orbital flights, and intermittent global 

conflicts extend to space, where sovereignty remains untested. 

Key focus questions for NASA: What would NASA do if commercial industry was almost fully 

leading and setting priorities for human spaceflight? What should NASA’s role be in a world 

where space war, including human casualties, is normalized? Should NASA take a bigger role in 

ensuring flight safety?

2. Discipline – Retreat from the Final Frontier. The private sector fails to establish commercial 

viability amidst global depression, and a push for greener fuels gives rise to slower but more ecofriendly air and space transportation. The metaverse becomes fully integrated into society, 

reducing desire for physical exploration of space but also offering opportunity to scale the 

“virtual experience” to the masses.

Key focus questions for NASA: How should NASA move forward if there’s no commercial sector 

to leverage? How should NASA approach exploration when there’s little interest for human 

spaceflight?

3. Decline – Blamed for the Big One. NASA miscalculates the risk of an approaching asteroid that 

causes widespread devastation, leading to the public’s loss of trust in NASA and science in 

general. STEM degree programs see a major plummet in enrollment. Congress funds a private 

consortium to establish and lead settlements on Mars and orbiting platforms. A Mars colony is 

successfully established, but political friction quickly leads to conflict between Earth and the 

base on Mars.

Key focus questions for NASA: Which NASA areas of responsibility (officially or perceived) 

could threaten its brand and public trust? Whose role is it to govern off-world settlements (e.g.,

securing property rights) when commercial is leading the effort?
 

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4. Transformation – Children of Space. A breakthrough in high-speed space travel enables 

widespread expansion into the Solar System. The new wealthy class, borne from the profits of 

asteroid mining, live off-world and experiment with genetic modification to enhance their 

livelihood and reproductive capabilities off-world. A next wave of transformation approaches 

with Artificial Intelligence (AI) and quantum sensors detecting a potential techno-signature from 

another galaxy.

Key focus questions for NASA: What is NASA going to do if/when life is discovered off planet? 

What if NASA is not the organization to discover life off Earth? What are the public expectations 

for the roles and responsibilities of NASA? How could NASA be viewed as a failure?

Question #3: How would these disruptions impact NASA’s roles in science, space 

technology, human exploration, aeronautics, and its associated workforce? 

Amidst a volatile and uncertain operating environment, one important element of organizational 

effectiveness is alignment on collective, understood, and believed vision and mission. NASA’s current 

vision statement is “exploring the secrets of the universe for the benefit of all,” and its current mission 

statement is “NASA explores the unknown in air and space, innovates for the benefit of humanity, and 

inspires the world through discovery.” This study explored the enterprise-wide alignment on this vision 

and mission and whether NASA’s staff believed they should change in the future before diving into 

potential ways that disruption could impact NASA.

When posed with the question, “what is NASA’s why and does it change in the next 20-plus years?”, the 

two roundtables of NASA executives offered at least 26 different responses. There are common elements 

across the statements, such as “explore,” “humanity,” and “discovery,” but the messages were far from 

uniform. The statements vary in both who NASA’s ultimate beneficiaries may be and how specifically 

those beneficiaries are described. Many participants believed that NASA is at a fundamental transition 

point with the rapidly changing environment (particularly with the rise of commercial space). Some went 

so far as to say that NASA was having an identity crisis. Many participants felt that there had been 

pressure for NASA to turn into a more “applied agency” (i.e., focusing on delivering services, similar to

NOAA) rather than a “mission-focused” (i.e., exploration-focused) agency and that pressure was driving 

the lack of a clear mission statement.

Feedback from the roundtables and interviews revealed that there was no enterprise-wide consensus on 

today’s vision and mission statements. Roughly half of the internal participants felt that the vision and 

mission might be different in the future. The other half thought that NASA’s current vision and mission 

were enduring, but that change would occur in exactly what NASA does in pursuit of that vision. Two 

notable themes were: (1) a tangible shift to a more applied agency, or (2) a change in focus to enabling 

life outside our home planet (as opposed to thinking about Earth). Regarding human spaceflight, some 

believed that in twenty years, “[NASA would] focus less on ‘how do we get there?’ and more ‘what do 

we do when we get there?’.” Another theme that emerged from the roundtables was the potential shift of 

NASA’s primary role to being a catalyzing agent for the rest of the space enterprise, with comments on 

NASA’s role such as “catalyzing discovery for the good of humanity” and, as an aspirational future state, 

“NASA is the catalyst for innovation, discovery, and exploration.” 

These perspectives on NASA’s potential future roles in science, technology, and the workforce provided a 

starting point for the Aerospace foresighting team in its development of candidate strategic options for 

NASA, which capture more formally the wide range of paths that NASA leadership could elect for the 

organization. The roundtables, executive interviews, a review of the scenarios for challenges, 

opportunities, or implications against key criteria (e.g., resourcing, organizational effectiveness, culture, 
 

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etc.), and expert analysis culminated in the development of 15 strategic options, grouped into five 

categories as shown in the table below.

Strategic Options Description

Commercial

1. Maintain internal capabilities 

relevant to NASA’s mission

Overlap exists between what NASA is doing 

and what commercial can do

2. NASA transitions to an acquisitiononly agencyNASA employees are not actively building, 

integrating, or operating in-house 

3. Skate to where commercial isn't Fully transition commercial-viable capabilities 

out of NASA

Innovation

4. Focus on basic research Rebalance portfolio to be more research 

focused rather than mission-execution focused

5. Lead the frontier Go as far and fast as possible, explore the 

unknown where no one else is

6. Catalyze access for all Enable mechanisms for a significant part of 

society to participate in exploration and 

science

Non-Commercial 

Partnerships

7. Master in targeted areas, partner 

elsewhere 

Self-sufficient in small subset of core 

competencies, partner elsewhere because 

NASA cannot do it all

8. Maximize partnerships across all 

efforts

Value proposition as an integrator across 

interagency, international, etc., not necessarily 

an expert everywhere

9. DIY: don’t partner Complete vertical integration under NASAfunded efforts

Workforce / Talent

10. Be the best government option Excel at providing the best work environment 

in the USG

11. Substantial effort to increase value 

proposition for attracting and 

sustaining talent

Push government swim lanes for talent 

acquisition

12. Compete with non-government for 

top talent 

Break open new possibilities for getting talent

Policy

13. Arbiter of data not policy NASA presents/provides data, but does not get 

involved in policy formulation or decisions

14. Use NASA’s voice to drive 

awareness for policy

NASA drives conversations on topics where it 

has expertise

15. NASA as a direct influencer of 

policy

NASA as an explicit policy advocate through 

data-driven evidence

These strategic options and categories are only starting points for NASA’s strategic development and are

intentionally not exhaustive, but they do capture the wide range of roles that NASA could pursue in the 

future considering the trends and disruptors identified in Question #1. Some of these strategic options are 

mutually exclusive, and others are not. For example, strategic options #8 (“Maximize partnerships across 

all efforts”) and #9 (“DIY: don’t partner”) cannot be pursued simultaneously, as they capture two 

extremes on the spectrum of possible non-commercial partnership strategies. Any single strategy cannot 

be considered in isolation, and NASA cannot adopt them all. Generally, organizations should also 

consider strategies that appear to be big leaps as well as they are critical to organizational transformation.

A discussion among NASA leadership about each of these is required in the context of resilience. 

Question #4 addresses the assessment of which strategies have the greatest potential to provide that 

resilience in light of the uncertain futures captured in the scenarios.
 

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Question #4: How can NASA be best prepared to pivot when unpredicted technological or 

societal disruptions occur?

The 15 candidate strategic options from Question #3 were each evaluated against two metrics: (1) the 

number of scenarios from Question #2 where the strategy would position NASA more strongly to survive 

and thrive in the possible future described by the scenario and (2) the degree of organizational 

transformation necessary to realize the strategy, which was inferred by inputs from the NASA executive 

interviews and roundtables. The strategic options populate this metric space on Pareto-like fronts, where 

high resilience and low transformation is the direction of preference. 

The most preferred strategic options are those where the largest number of possible future scenarios are 

covered and where the least amount of organizational transformation is needed. Three strategic options 

are in this preferred region of the metric space having high resilience and low barriers to adoption: 

• #5 Lead the frontier (i.e., go as far and fast as possible, explore the unknown where no one 

else is)

• #6 Catalyze access for all (i.e., enable mechanisms for significant part of society to 

participate in exploration and science)

• #11 Increase the value proposition for attracting and sustaining talent

Pursuing these three strategic options would strongly position NASA in the face of a volatile and 

uncertain future without the need for a major shift in culture or resources. These three strategic options 

differ from NASA’s ostensible current practice. For example, NASA’s role in exploration is undisputed, 

but strategic option #5 (lead the frontier) would prioritize revolutionary innovation and exploration over 

incremental advancements and lead to other civil or commercial organizations deliberately being 

encouraged to take over after each frontier has been reached. Furthermore, NASA is already well 

regarded for its educational and public outreach, but strategic option #6 (catalyze access for all) is a more 

comprehensive approach where the public would take a more direct and meaningful part in NASA’s 

exploratory mission, as opposed to being simply a consumer of media. Lastly, strategic option #11 

(increase the value proposition for attracting talent) involves not only creating direct incentives for 

retention (e.g., compensation) but also restructuring the organization to improve employee satisfaction 

(e.g., geographically distributed employees doing work for any center) and including metrics for the 

potential for talent attraction and retention in the projects that NASA pursues.

The main body of the report details the performance of all the strategic options, including those that are 

least effective (low resilience and high barrier to adoption required). Of note are two options that are 

resilient against three of the four future scenarios (which indicates that these options are largely 

applicable regardless of future state): 

• #4 Focus on basic research (i.e., rebalance portfolio to be more research focused rather than 

mission-execution focused)

• #15 NASA is a direct influencer of policy (i.e., NASA as an explicit policy advocate through 

data-driven evidence)

Both strategic options are considered “big leaps” in terms of organizational transformation. In the case of 

strategic option #4 (focus on basic research), the dominance of commercial space in three of the four 

scenarios suggested that NASA may be more advantageously positioned in a more research role, for 

which there is little commercial appetite, and by divesting many mission-execution activities that 
 

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consume substantial resources, but that may be overtaken by commercial capabilities by mid-century. 

Strategic option #15 (NASA is a direct influencer of policy) is the proactive complement to option #13, 

however it is very different than current practice.

To complement the strategic options, the foresighting team synthesized roundtable and interview inputs 

into a set of “universal elements” that underlie any successful strategic implementation, irrespective of the 

future state or specific strategies chosen for the organization as shown in the table below.

Participants in the roundtables helped identify these universal elements and addressed their own 

perceptions on NASA’s current performance. Their inputs indicate that NASA’s performance varies 

widely, from excellent (e.g., NASA’s worldwide branding and STEM reachback) to poor (e.g., 

organizational alignment on vision and fostering a collaborative cross-center environment). Even if an 

organization is performing favorably, these elements should be actively managed because the trend is 

subject to forces outside the organization’s control. For example, while NASA is currently performing 

well with creating “an inspired workforce of top talent,” the trend is growing that talent acquisition and 

retention is becoming more challenging. In contrast, roundtable feedback suggests that work remains to 

be done to improve NASA’s performance in cross-center collaboration, which is among the Innovation & 

Business Practices universal elements. Roundtable participants expressed frustration at the deep-rooted 

competition between different NASA centers and the de facto prohibition on collaboration with 

geographically separated colleagues and sometimes even within centers themselves when proposal dollars 

are at stake. The emphasis on competition instead of cooperation across the mission and centers could be 

preventing NASA from seizing new opportunities.
 

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Universal Elements for Successful Implementation

Category Description

Current Performance (color based on 

inputs from roundtables & interviews)

green- good; yellow- fair; red- concerning

Baseline 

Trend

Leadership & 

Organization

Organizational alignment on a 

collective, understood, and believed 

vision & mission (the “why” for 

NASA)

NASA has a clear, solid vision/mission 

statement, however there is a lack of 

necessary alignment or understanding

throughout the organization



An integrated strategy roadmap for 

the NASA enterprise to help meet 

the vision and mission

Roadmaps at mission/directorate level, 

but not integrated/refined at enterprise 

level

Stakeholder management strategy 

including resourcing and enduring 

missions 

Recognition of the need to increase 

amount of stakeholder engagement to 

reduce changes from admin to admin, 

but improvements needed 

Workforce / 

Talent

An inspired workforce of top talent

NASA continues to be a top-ranking 

government employer and engage new 

talent, but workforce is at risk, no 

guaranteed continuation



Top talent is retained and sustained 

at NASA

Some generational disconnects between 

wants/needs of workplace and mission 

resonance, and their understanding

across management levels



Ensure a vibrant workforce 

promoting diversity, equity, and 

inclusion

Good progress on diversity, but room to 

go for equity and inclusion (particularly in 

leadership)



Future 

Preparedness / 

Resilience

Adaptability and agility of the 

enterprise to weather disruptions 

and changes to the mission 

environment

Need formal approach for enabling 

integrated organizational flexibility to 

address surprise/drive change

 Consistent scanning of how the 

environment is changing and 

weaving these insights into decisionmaking

Need to identify key internal stakeholders 

and processes that integrate horizon 

scanning insights into updating strategy

Innovation & 

Business 

Practices 

NASA can do some of the biggest, 

most complex, highest collaborative 

projects in the world

Demonstrated feats few others in the 

world have been able to achieve and 

should continue to “go big”



Reach-back to public, STEM, and 

international collaboration

Continue to strive to be world-class in its 

outreach efforts

Government-leading organization for 

commercial partnerships

Continue to lead in catalyzing and 

partnering with commercial 

A collaborative—not 

counterproductive—competitive 

environment between mission 

centers and directorates

Need to address stove-piping and 

counterproductive internal competition

Abundant cross-enterprise 

collaboration to drive innovative 

outcomes

There are examples of excellence, need 

to expand enterprise wide within NASA 

and expand interagency, international, 

and commercial examples

Ability to prioritize geographic and 

organizational balance in portfolio to 

maximize impact across the entire 

enterprise

Work distributed by mission and Centers, 

not properly balanced across the 

enterprise

Recognize when to stop doing things 

that no longer serve the collective 

NASA mission

Need to establish rigorous process to 

decide when to stop and/or streamline 

investments to ensure they are serving 

collective mission

Brand

Positive worldwide brand Continue to maintain/enhance globally 

recognized brand  Be a trusted source of information 

and wisdom worldwide

Continue to provide trusted, sciencebased insight to the public
 

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A series of key questions for NASA leadership emerged from the foresighting analysis, specifically

considering the strategic-decision points evident when considering the four future scenarios. Below are

the major questions relevant to NASA’s vision and mission that leadership should consider in the early 

stages of their strategic development process, the bolded questions indicate the primary questions, with 

related questions below: 

Key Questions for NASA

What is the “Why” for NASA and does it change in 

the future?

How far does NASA embrace commercial vs. in-house?

What is the appropriate mix of international 

partnerships vs. domestic capability?

What is the future of human spaceflight vs. robotic 

exploration?

Does NASA have the willingness to change to meet 

its collective vision?

What internal and external barriers to change exist at 

NASA? 

Is NASA poised organizationally for change?

What does NASA need to start or stop doing to serve 

its future mission?

How does NASA define success now and in the 

future? 

What is “success” for NASA?

What does it mean for NASA to survive vs. thrive?

Survival of the legal entity? Survival of the brand?

In an abundant world with unlimited resources and 

endless talent, what would NASA try to do?

How does NASA deliver resilience?

What happens if NASA discovers life, and what if 

someone else does?

What if there is another global conflict?

What if someone else beats NASA back to the Moon 

and to Mars? 

Foresighting is the first step in the strategy formulation and execution process. After exploring the trends 

and disruptors, possible futures, critical uncertainties, and possible strategic options, the follow-on steps 

are strategy formulation, change management, and finally tracking implementation progress. The 2021 

ASAP report recommended that “NASA should develop a strategic vision for the future of space 

exploration that encompasses at least the next twenty years,” and that the vision “should describe the role 

that NASA intends to play during that period.” Additionally, “all aspects of the strategic plan should be 

clearly and unambiguously communicated throughout the Agency.” Finally, the authors of the ASAP 

report recommend that NASA determine “how the Agency is going to understand and manage risk in the 

more complex environment in which it will be operating.” The findings presented in this study are a 

framework that NASA may consider when addressing these recommendations. Any organization risks its 

relevance, resilience, and ability to shape the future if it fails to adopt a collective and integrated strategy, 

as recommended in ASAP 2021 Annual Report. Foresighting is not a one-time event. Routine reiteration 

is important to ensure an organization is constantly evolving to adapt to an ever-changing environment.

NASA is well positioned to shape a vibrant future for itself and the nation in the aeronautics and space 

fields.
 

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Contents

1. Introduction and Motivation ............................................................................................................... 1

2. Foresighting Approach and Methodology,

.......................................................................................... 4

3. Executive Interviews and Roundtables............................................................................................. 12

3.1 Executive Interviews............................................................................................................. 12

3.2 Roundtables........................................................................................................................... 14

3.2.1 In-Person Executive Roundtable ............................................................................ 17

3.2.2 Virtual NASA-Internal Roundtable........................................................................ 20

3.2.3 Virtual Early Career and Employee Resource Group (ERG) Roundtable.............. 21

3.2.4 Virtual NASA Intern Roundtable (Led by NASA) ................................................ 22

3.2.5 Virtual External Roundtable ................................................................................... 22

3.2.6 In-Person External Roundtable............................................................................... 24

4. Drivers, Trends, and Disruptors........................................................................................................ 25

4.1 Drivers................................................................................................................................... 25

4.2 Trends and Disruptors........................................................................................................... 25

4.3 Natural Language Processing of NASA-provided Futures Documents................................ 34

4.3.1 Data Ingest and Algorithms.................................................................................... 34

4.3.2 Data Visualization and Insights.............................................................................. 36

4.3.3 Limitations and Potential Next Steps...................................................................... 37

4.4 Inputs from International Space University (ISU) ................................................................ 39

5. Potential North Stars for NASA........................................................................................................ 41

5.1 The Future Why for NASA................................................................................................... 41

5.2 Aspirational Future States of NASA..................................................................................... 43

6. Divergent Future Scenarios and Analysis......................................................................................... 45

6.1 Archetypes of the Four Futures Model.................................................................................. 45

6.2 Threadable CONOPS ............................................................................................................ 46

6.3 Scenarios Overview............................................................................................................... 49

6.3.1 Baseline .................................................................................................................. 50

6.3.2 Growth.................................................................................................................... 51

6.3.3 Discipline................................................................................................................ 53

6.3.4 Decline .................................................................................................................... 55

6.3.5 Transform ............................................................................................................... 57

6.4 Scenario Analysis.................................................................................................................. 59

7. Cross-Futures Assessment ................................................................................................................ 64

8. Additional Key Insights .................................................................................................................... 68

Appendix A. Detailed Trends and Disruptors........................................................................................ 72

Appendix B. Detailed Observations from Executive Interviews ........................................................... 82

Appendix C. Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables............................................................ 88

C.1 In-Person Executive Roundtable ........................................................................................... 88

C.1.1 Fears........................................................................................................................ 88

C.1.2 Futures Web............................................................................................................ 89

C.2 Virtual Executive Roundtable ............................................................................................... 92

C.3 Virtual Internal Roundtable................................................................................................. 104

C.4 Virtual Early Career and Employee Resource Group (ERG) Roundtable .......................... 127

C.5 Virtual NASA Intern Roundtable (Led by NASA)............................................................. 131
 

xiv

Appendix D. Detailed Observations from External Roundtables......................................................... 140

D.1 Virtual External Roundtable................................................................................................ 140

D.1.1 Key Trends and Disruptors................................................................................... 140

D.1.2 Diving into Exploration and Discovery................................................................ 152

D.1.3 Mash-Ups.............................................................................................................. 152

D.1.4 Futures Web.......................................................................................................... 155

D.1.5 Reflections for NASA........................................................................................... 155

D.1.6 Graphic Recordings.............................................................................................. 160

D.2 In-Person External Roundtable ........................................................................................... 171

D.2.1 Exploring Changing Broader Global Environment .............................................. 171

D.2.2 Defining the Possibilities of the Future of Discovery and Exploration ................ 176

D.2.3 Defining the Possibilities of the Future of Space Discovery and Exploration...... 177

D.2.4 Attendees.............................................................................................................. 179

D.2.5 Graphic Recordings.............................................................................................. 181

Appendix E. Summary of Commonalities/Contradictions across Input Sources................................. 190

Appendix F. Lessons Learned ............................................................................................................. 192

Appendix G. Strategic Options and Supporting Roundtable Inputs..................................................... 193

Appendix H. List of NLP Documents Scanned.................................................................................... 201

Appendix I. List of Acronyms............................................................................................................ 203
 

xv

Figures

Figure 1. State of play of foresighting and futures work for various worldwide institutions ..................... 5

Figure 2. High-level methodological approach taken for this study. ........................................................ 10

Figure 3. Detail of the scenario development and analysis process.......................................................... 11

Figure 4. High-level summary of each roundtable indicating which exercises were used. ...................... 15

Figure 5. Detailed list of major underlying currents impacting space activities....................................... 25

Figure 6. Custom scanning of relevant future emerging disruptors and trends. ....................................... 31

Figure 7. Snippet showcasing some data source details and paragraph counts. ....................................... 35

Figure 8. Sample output of selected topics (keywords shown) generated from available text. ................ 36

Figure 9. NLP example generated timeline............................................................................................... 37

Figure 10. NLP example of topic cluster generated at the paragraph level. ............................................... 38

Figure 11. NLP graphic shows topic contribution by source directory....................................................... 38

Figure 12. Aspirational future states for NASA from executive interviews. .............................................. 43

Figure 13. Candidate North Stars derived from NASA executive roundtables .......................................... 44

Figure 14. Archetype definitions of future corner cases, as defined by the Four Futures Model. .............. 45

Figure 15. Threadable CONOPS................................................................................................................. 46

Figure 16. Graphical depiction of Four Futures scenarios developed......................................................... 50

Figure 17. Baseline Threadable CONOPS.................................................................................................. 51

Figure 18. Growth Threadable CONOPS. .................................................................................................. 52

Figure 19. Discipline Threadable CONOPS. .............................................................................................. 54

Figure 20. Decline Threadable CONOPS. .................................................................................................. 56

Figure 21. Transform Threadable CONOPS............................................................................................... 58

Figure 22. Possible strategic options for the five categories....................................................................... 62

Figure 23. Scenario assessment on resiliency and degree of transformation for NASA. ........................... 65

Figure 24. Universal elements for successful implementation ................................................................... 69

Figure 25. Key questions for NASA leadership to consider during the strategic development process. .......... 70

Figure 26. Executive interview description letter. ...................................................................................... 83

Figure 27. Executive interviews: Top Trends Impacting the Future? ........................................................ 84

Figure 28. Executive interviews: What excites you about the future aerospace enterprise?...................... 85

Figure 29. Executive interviews: What scares you or keeps you up at night?............................................ 85

Figure 30. Executive interviews: What assumptions is NASA is making about the future? ....................... 86

Figure 31. Executive interviews: What do you recommend NASA act on for a bright future?................... 86

Figure 32. Executive interviews: What are the inhibitors? ........................................................................ 86

Figure 33. Executive interviews: What is working/not working? ............................................................... 87

Figure 34. Virtual executive roundtable answers to NASA’s “Why in 2022 and 2042?” Miro board. ...... 93

Figure 35. Virtual executive roundtable biggest fears Miro board. ............................................................ 94

Figure 36. Virtual executive roundtable North Stars. ................................................................................. 95

Figure 37. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 1. ................................................................. 99

Figure 38. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 2. ............................................................... 100

Figure 39. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 3. ............................................................... 101

Figure 40. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 4. ............................................................... 102

Figure 41. Virtual executive roundtable event final takeaways. ............................................................... 103

Figure 42. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, Round 1 mash-up. .......................................................... 113

Figure 43. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, Round 2 mash-up. .......................................................... 113

Figure 44. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, Round 3 mash-up. .......................................................... 113

Figure 45. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, Round 1 mash-up. .......................................................... 113

Figure 46. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, Round 2 mash-up. .......................................................... 114

Figure 47. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, Round 3 mash-up. .......................................................... 114

Figure 48. Virtual internal roundtable Team 3, Round 1 mash-up. .......................................................... 114

Figure 49. Virtual internal roundtable Team 3, Round 2 mash-up. .......................................................... 114
 

xvi

Figure 50. Virtual internal roundtable - Team 3, Round 3 mash-up......................................................... 115

Figure 51. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 1.................................................................... 116

Figure 52. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 2.................................................................... 117

Figure 53. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 3.................................................................... 118

Figure 54. Virtual internal roundtable "Imagine If" free write. ................................................................ 119

Figure 55. Virtual internal roundtable big takeaways............................................................................... 120

Figure 56. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 1 of 3 ............................................................... 122

Figure 57. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 2 of 3 ............................................................... 124

Figure 58. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 3 of 3 ............................................................... 126

Figure 59. Virtual early career and ERGs roundtable directed questions................................................. 127

Figure 60. Virtual early career and ERG roundtable takeaways............................................................... 131

Figure 61. Virtual NASA intern roundtable Word Cloud 1...................................................................... 132

Figure 62. Virtual NASA intern roundtable Word Cloud 2...................................................................... 133

Figure 63. Virtual NASA intern roundtable futures web.......................................................................... 135

Figure 64. Intern roundtable futures question 1. ....................................................................................... 136

Figure 65. Intern roundtable futures question 2. ....................................................................................... 136

Figure 66. Intern roundtable futures question 3. ....................................................................................... 137

Figure 67. Intern roundtable futures web.................................................................................................. 138

Figure 68. Intern roundtable “Your Ideal Future”..................................................................................... 139

Figure 69. Virtual external roundtable Team 1 mash-up Round 1............................................................ 154

Figure 70. Virtual external roundtable Team 1 mash-up Round 2............................................................ 154

Figure 71. Virtual external roundtable Team 2 mash-up Round 1............................................................ 154

Figure 72. Virtual external roundtable Team 2 mash-up Round 2............................................................ 154

Figure 73. Virtual external roundtable Team 3 mash-up Round 1............................................................ 154

Figure 74. Virtual external roundtable Team 3 mash-up Round 2............................................................ 154

Figure 75. Virtual external roundtable futures web on the future of research and development.............. 156

Figure 76. Virtual external roundtable futures web on the future of being human................................... 157

Figure 77. Virtual external roundtable futures web on utopian space settlements and governance. ........ 158

Figure 78. Key takeaways from the virtual external roundtable participants. .......................................... 159

Figure 79. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 1 of 5............................................................... 162

Figure 80. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 2 of 5............................................................... 164

Figure 81. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 3 of 5............................................................... 166

Figure 82. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 4 of 5............................................................... 168

Figure 83. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 5 of 5............................................................... 170

Figure 84. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 1 of 4........................................................... 183

Figure 85. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 2 of 4........................................................... 185

Figure 86. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 3 of 4........................................................... 187

Figure 87. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 4 of 4........................................................... 189

Figure 88. Summary of commonalities/contradictions across input sources. ........................................... 190

Figure 89. Themes and associated direct quotes/Miro posts across aspirations and fears for NASA. ..... 191

Figure 90. Quotes from executive interviews across a few key theme areas............................................ 191
 

xvii

Tables

Table 1. Goal of Each Roundtable Exercise ................................................................................................. 15

Table 2. Roundtable Formats, Number of Participants, and Goal of Roundtable ........................................ 16

Table 3. Futures Roundtable Summary ........................................................................................................ 16

Table 4. A Binned List of the Societal Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables.... 26

Table 5. A Binned List of the Technological Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables.. 27

Table 6. A Binned List of the Economic Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables.... 28

Table 7. A Binned List of the Environmental Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables . 29

Table 8. A Binned List of the Political Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables.... 30

Table 9. Analysis Table of Each Scenario against Seven Key Criteria ........................................................ 61

Table 10. Strategic Options, Their Descriptions, and Their Scenario Coverage .......................................... 67

Table 11. NASA Executive Interview List. .................................................................................................. 82

Table 12. In-Person Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors. ............................................................. 91

Table 13. Virtual NASA Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 2) ......................................... 96

Table 14. Virtual NASA Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 2) ......................................... 97

Table 15. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 7)........................................... 105

Table 16. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 7)........................................... 106

Table 17. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (3 of 7)........................................... 107

Table 18. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (4 of 7)........................................... 108

Table 19. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (5 of 7)........................................... 109

Table 20. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (6 of 7)........................................... 110

Table 21. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (7 of 7) ........................................... 111

Table 22. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable - Mash-up Summary (1 of 2).............................................. 111

Table 23. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable - Mash-up Summary (2 of 2).............................................. 112

Table 24. NASA Early Career and ERGs Virtual Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 2).................. 128

Table 25. NASA Early Career and ERGs Virtual Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 2).................. 129

Table 26. NASA Internal Early Career and ERGs Roundtable Mash-Up Summary.................................. 130

Table 27. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 7)...................................................... 141

Table 28. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 7)...................................................... 143

Table 29. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (3 of 7)...................................................... 146

Table 30. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (4 of 7)...................................................... 148

Table 31. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (5 of 7)...................................................... 150

Table 32. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (6 of 7)...................................................... 151

Table 33. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (7 of 7)...................................................... 151

Table 34. Virtual External Roundtable Mash-up Summary........................................................................ 153

Table 35. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (1 of 5).......................................... 172

Table 36. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (2 of 5).......................................... 173

Table 37. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (3 of 5).......................................... 174

Table 38. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (4 of 5).......................................... 175

Table 39. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (5 of 5).......................................... 176

Table 40. Biographies of All Attendees at the External In-Person NASA Roundtable.............................. 179

Table 41. Strategic Options and Supporting Data....................................................................................... 193
1 

1. Introduction and Motivation

Today’s operating environment both on Earth and in space is volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous 

(VUCA). This VUCA environment, in which NASA operates today and will continue to operate for the 

coming decades, is fundamentally different than in previous periods due to the increasing and diverse use 

of space by commercial companies, the emergence of new space-faring nation-states, and the increased 

utilization of space by nations with long-established space programs.6,7 These circumstances lead to new 

challenges and obstacles for NASA to navigate and less certainty for the future. NASA must be prepared 

not only to lead the world in science and exploration missions in the 2030s, 2040s, and beyond but also to 

pursue an organizational path forward and a vision that ensures NASA’s resilience against a wide array of 

potential societal, economic, environmental, and political volatility. 

In its 2021 annual report8 evaluating NASA’s strategy, the Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel (ASAP), a

federal advisory committee that reports to NASA and Congress, published the following finding:

NASA should develop a strategic vision for the future of space exploration and operations that 

encompasses at least the next twenty years, including potential alternative scenarios, that is 

driven by how the Agency is going to understand and manage risk in the more complex 

environment in which it will be operating.9

The purpose of this six-month study was to support NASA’s response to this finding and to inform 

its future strategic planning efforts by (1) developing alternative future scenarios focused on impacts in 

2040 and beyond, (2) exploring the different strategic paths that NASA may take as its future role evolves 

and which strategies may be most resilient to this diverse array of scenarios, and (3) extracting from the 

scenarios key questions that NASA leadership should consider when developing resilient strategic plans.

This study does not attempt to develop technological roadmaps or to provide the current state and future 

direction of science disciplines, mature processes for which already exist at NASA (e.g., decadal 

surveys). Rather, this study combines societal, economic, environmental, political, technological, threat, 

and space (STEEPTS) trends to formulate scenarios that capture the holistic environment that NASA will 

operate in. In addition, the composition of an explicit response to the ASAP finding is out of scope for 

this study and shall be undertaken by NASA separately.

The guiding questions for this study were:

1. What would be significant disruptions (technological, geopolitical, environmental, cultural, 

etc.) to the future world that NASA should plan for? 

2. What are the possible scenarios for the aerospace community and the broader technology 

world in the 2040s? 

3. How would these disruptions impact NASA’s roles in science, space technology, human 

exploration, aeronautics, and its associated workforce? 

6 Satellite Industry Association’s “25th Annual State of the Satellite Industry Report,” September 26, 2020. 7 Cunzeman, K. and Dickey, R. “Strategic Foresight for the Space Enterprise,” Center for Space Policy and Strategy, The 

Aerospace Corporation, https://csps.aerospace.org/papers/strategic-foresight-space-enterprise 8 Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel Annual Report 2021, https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2021_asap_reporttagged.pdf, January 1, 2022. 9 Ibid., p. 11
2 

4. How can NASA be best prepared to pivot when unpredicted technological or societal 

disruptions occur?

To build potential future scenarios, the study team sought input from both NASA employees and external 

thought leaders. The team interviewed eight senior NASA executives and facilitated a series of interactive 

roundtables with approximately 200 NASA staff—from early-career to senior staff—and a diverse group 

of external participants. The NASA-internal participants represented all NASA centers and mission 

directorates, and the participants spanned years of service from interns to more than 50 years of civil 

service. The external participants included students, educators, representatives from Fortune 500 

companies, entrepreneurs, authors, space enthusiasts, and artists. The team interviewed NASA executivelevel leadership, which included the Deputy Administrator, Associate Administrators, and the NASA 

Chief Scientist. 

To address the study’s guiding questions, The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) team designed custom 

foresighting activities for the roundtables to draw out the societal, technical, political, and other relevant

trends that could impact NASA in the next 20 years and beyond. The information gathered during the 

roundtables served as inputs for the Aerospace team to develop comprehensive alternative future 

scenarios, cross-futures insights, strategic implications, and key questions for NASA’s senior leadership 

team to consider when building strategic plans. The Aerospace team used their proprietary horizon 

scanning and natural language processing capabilities to gather additional insights.

This report is organized as follows: 

• Section 2 details the overall foresighting methodology of this study, including a description of the 

roundtables and their associated exercises, the translation of roundtable trends and disruptors into

critical uncertainties, the development of scenarios, the identification of candidate strategic 

options based on subject matter expert (SME) review and inputs from the NASA executive 

interviews, the identification of the strategic options that are most resilient against the scenarios, 

and the formulation of other key questions from roundtable inputs that NASA leadership should 

address in upcoming formal strategy development.

• Section 3 is a deep dive into the roundtables themselves, including overviews of who participated, 

what exercises were carried out, and the general trends of the participants’ responses. 

• Section 4 is a review of the trends and disruptors identified by the roundtable participants, the 

ongoing horizon-scanning process internal to Aerospace, and the NLP review of NASA and other 

global futures documentation. 

• Section 5 uses the NASA-internal roundtables and interviews to probe consensus views on what 

NASA’s role and purpose should be in the coming decades and what principles should guide 

NASA’s path forward as an organization (i.e., its “North Stars”).

• Section 6 details the development of the future scenarios and the content of the scenarios 

themselves. The roundtable inputs inform the construction of a “Threadable CONOPS,” with

which four scenarios are composed. The Aerospace foresight team created four archetype 

scenarios (growth, discipline, decline, and transform) that derive from the Four Futures model10. 

The scenarios culminate with key focus questions that provide NASA with a starting point for

vision-setting and goal prioritization in the strategy-development process. Section 6.4 discusses 

10 Dator, J. “ʽNew Beginnings’ Within a New Normal for the Four Futures,” Foresight, Vol. 16, No. 6, November 2014
3 

the development of candidate strategic options (non-exhaustive), which are based on review from 

the Aerospace foresighting team and inputs from the interviews with NASA executives.

• Section 7 is a cross-scenario assessment of the strategic options developed in Section 6.4. Each 

strategic option is evaluated for (1) its resiliency against each scenario (i.e., how favorably the 

strategic option would position NASA to thrive in the scenario’s VUCA environment) and (2) the 

amount of organizational transformation needed at NASA to execute that strategic option. Using

these two variables, strategic options are identified in a Pareto-like fashion that provide the 

maximum resilience for the least organizational transformation.

• Section 8 extends the review of the roundtable inputs and the trends and disruptors to identify 

“universal elements” of a notional NASA organizational strategy, including matters related to 

organization, workforce, business practices, and brand management, and to document key 

questions for NASA leadership to consider during the strategy-development process.
4 

2. Foresighting Approach and Methodology11,12 

Foresight is not about prediction, but preparedness. The growing complexity of the interconnected world 

demands that leaders explore new approaches to ensure the resilience of organizations. Strategic foresight 

is useful for navigating this environment, as it enables better decision-making under uncertainty through 

systemic thinking about the future. Foresighting relies on a diverse set of tools and techniques to 

challenge assumptions about the future of a complicated world. Strategic foresight helps envision 

potential future states, identify key events and decision points, and integrate uncertainty into planning 

processes to help drive organizations towards preferred future states. Although thinking about the future 

is an important part of the process, foresight is largely about what organizations do today. 

Foresighting is used around the world to strengthen organizations in the face of uncertain futures. Figure 

1 highlights formal foresighting work that has been performed in the space ecosystem, the U.S. 

government, international governments, academia, and the private sector as well as examples of ad hoc

future thinking that NASA has performed previously. 

We selected foresighting as the preferred method for this study. In addition to enabling informed 

decision-making in an environment of uncertainty, foresighting can help leaders envision and experience 

the future and realize how today’s decisions impact the future. The foresighting process is typically 

executed in a collaborative environment, bringing together internal and external stakeholders. 

Foresighting can generate innovative solutions and creative thinking while driving valuable 

transformation. Insight and action are the next steps to realizing transformation and meaningful change. 

11 Cunzeman, K. and Dickey, R. “Strategic Foresight for the Space Enterprise,” Center for Space Policy and Strategy, The 

Aerospace Corporation, https://csps.aerospace.org/papers/strategic-foresight-space-enterprise 12 Cunzeman, K. et al. “Strategic Foresight: Addressing uncertainty in Long-Term Strategic Planning.” The Aerospace 

Corporation. https://aerospace.org/paper/strategic-foresight-addressing-uncertainty-long-term-strategic-planning. November 16, 

2020. 
5 

Figure 1. State of play of foresighting and futures work for various worldwide institutions demonstrating 

the widespread and increasing adoption of the practice to address current world decision-making needs.

13,14,15,16

13 https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/citations/ADB310563 14 https://csi.asu.edu/books/vvev/ 

15 https://www.newamerica.org/international-security/reports/strategic-foresight-in-us-agencies/ 16 https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0040162517302287 
6 

This study was designed to yield four outputs that address the four guiding questions of Section 1: (1) 

documentation of the trends and disruptors in the STEEPTS categories (that may affect NASA’s future 

operating environment, (2) scenarios that capture corner cases of the possible future, (3) “North Stars” 

that envision what NASA’s future roles can or should be in light of the scenarios and today’s underlying 

trends, and (4) candidate strategic options that would provide organizational resilience in the future 

scenarios and other key questions and insights extracted from the analysis for NASA’s consideration

when its leadership begins the formal strategy-development process.

Figure 2 provides a high-level graphical depiction of the study’s methodology, with greater detail on the 

scenario-development approach in Figure 3. The following discussion walks through this methodology 

step by step, documenting each step’s inputs, analysis process, and outputs.

Step 1: Collect Inputs

For this study, we collected inputs from three sources: futures documentation, horizon scanning, and 

stakeholder inputs (through roundtables and interviews), as shown on the left of Figure 2 and the top left 

of Figure 3. For the futures documentation, natural language processing (NLP) was performed on a set of 

documents, some provided by NASA and others from global futures sources.17 Details on the exact 

method used for this NLP analysis are in Section 4.3. Additionally, Aerospace’s subject matter experts 

continuously perform horizon scanning18 and, for this study, performed custom scanning and tagged more 

than 1000 signals to select ones relevant to NASA. 

The roundtables and interviews were the largest undertaking for this study, involving approximately 200

NASA-internal staff and external participants. In Section 3, we provide detail on the roundtables and 

interviews, including who participated, the exercises we conducted, and the information we collected.

Outputs: raw roundtable and interview inputs, raw NLP data, raw signals from horizon scanning

Step 2: Identify Trends & Disruptors

This step, shown in the center of Figure 3, documents the emerging trends and disruptors that are likely to 

have a long-term or enduring impact on the future operating environment. The foresighting team 

synthesized inputs from all roundtables, interviews, horizon scanning, and document processing into a 

series of overall trends and disruptors organized into seven categories: societal, technological, economic, 

environmental, political, threat, and space (see Section 4). From the 1000+ signals captured in horizon 

scanning, the team identified 60 emerging disruptors that informed the future scenario development in 

areas that NASA may not be currently tracking (see Section 4.2 and Detailed Trends and Disruptors). The

team reviewed all the signals (trends and disruptors) holistically, considered their potential impact to 

NASA and whether there was a clear direction to the trend or not, and eliminated signals with lower 

future impact. This process led to a set of major shaping trends that are likely to have a dominating impact 

on the future environment.

Inputs: raw roundtable and interview exercises, horizon scanning inputs, and NLP of NASA 

documentation and futures literature (Step 1 above) 

17 Such as the NIC global futures report (https://www.dni.gov/index.php/gt2040-home), World Economic Forum Futures Report, USSF 2060 

(https://apps.dtic.mil/sti/pdfs/AD1095527.pdf), etc. 18 Horizon scanning is a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential 

threats and opportunities across societal, technological, economic, environmental, political, technological, and space (STEEPTS) factors.
7 

Outputs: lists of trends and disruptors across multiple categories (study Question #1), major shaping 

trends

Step 3: Identify North Stars

This step, at center bottom of Figure 2, identifies consensus views on what NASA’s role and purpose 

should be in the coming decades and what principles should guide NASA’s path forward as an

organization (i.e., its “North Stars”). The foresighting team collected the perspective of roundtable and 

interview participants on the vision, mission, and role of NASA in 2040 and beyond with multiple 

exercises, including “North Stars,” “Dreams and Fears,” and “Defining the future of discovery” (see 

Table 1). When developing strategic options, it is essential to consider the question, “what is this strategy 

attempting to drive towards?” A mission and vision statement help answer this, and envisioning 

aspirational North Stars helps contextualize and actualize the vision and mission. Section 5 details the 

results of identifying NASA’s North Stars.

Inputs: executive roundtable and interview exercises (Step 1 above) 

Outputs: A set of candidate North Star statements and individual words that capture stakeholders’ 

perspective of NASA’s future vision and purpose (part of study Question #3) 

Step 4: Threadable CONOPS

This step (top center of Figure 3) identifies the critical uncertainties that influence the future operating 

environment, documents their possible future states, and selects combinations of states to use in scenario 

development that conform to the archetypes of the Four Futures model. The critical uncertainties educed 

from the analysis of trends and disruptors (Step 2 above) are incorporated as inputs into a table, called a 

“Threadable CONOPS,” and the range of possible future states for each is associated with it in the 

Threadable CONOPS. While many other factors are considered when developing the scenarios, these 

parameters are deemed to be the driving uncertainties for the future environment relevant to an 

organization. With these uncertainties and their possible states, the foresighting team selected four 

combinations of inputs and their states in the Threadable CONOPS, one each for the four scenario 

archetypes of the Four Futures model (growth, discipline, decline, and transform) plus the baseline. 

Section 6.2 reviews the Threadable CONOPS in detail. 

Inputs: key uncertainties from trends and disruptors (Step 2 above) 

Outputs: five Threadable CONOPS tables, one each for the baseline, growth, discipline, decline, and 

transform scenarios

Step 5: Four Future Scenarios

This step (center of Figure 2 and top right of Figure 3) composes a set of four scenarios that serve as 

corner cases of the future operating environment. The foresighting team used the Threadable CONOPS 

tables (Step 4 above) and their associated selection of future states to craft a narrative for a corner-case 

future scenario, one each for the growth, discipline, decline, and transform archetypes. The four scenarios

provide corner cases against which possible investments, technologies, and decisions can be evaluated. 

This approach allows for determining how decisions could play out across different sets of assumptions 

(selection of different state for each input in the Threadable CONOPS). The Four Futures model 

challenges the analyst to rethink assumptions, consider multiple possibilities for the future, and make 

better decisions today. 
8 

The four scenarios each have a concise and evocative title and a three- or four-paragraph narrative that 

depicts a possible future consistent with the four archetypes. When reviewing these scenarios, the reader 

should resist the temptation to judge them on their likelihood. In fact, we expect that none of these 

scenarios in full will happen in the real world. Some parts of all of them are likely to occur in the coming 

decades, but we cannot know which parts. Consequently, the specific circumstances or plot in the 

narrative are not as important as the larger themes or challenges for NASA that emerge. These themes are 

captured as key focus questions, which provide NASA with a starting point for vision-setting and goal 

prioritization in the formal strategy-development process.

Inputs: Threadable CONOPS (Step 4 above) 

Outputs: four diverse future scenarios, including the scenario narrative and key questions that capture the 

scenario’s higher-level takeaways (study Question #2) 

Step 6: Strategic Options

This step (top right of Figure 2) develops a set of candidate organizational strategies by combining a 

stress test of the corner-case scenarios with interview and roundtable feedback. The foresighting team 

evaluated challenges, opportunities, and interactions of the scenarios relative to seven criteria—mission, 

resourcing, organizational effectiveness, workforce, leadership, culture, and innovation—and crosscorrelated with the data previously collected through NASA executive interviews and roundtables 

exercises to develop candidate strategic options. 

The interviews and roundtables provide both the participants’ visions of organizational strategies that 

NASA could pursue, and implied perception of which strategies may be palatable or may require 

substantial organizational transformation, which is important for the Cross-Scenario Assessment in Step 7

below. These strategic options span the spectrum of possibilities within each category of organizational 

interest (e.g., from “go-it-alone without partnerships” to “maximize partnerships across all efforts”). The 

strategic options developed in this analysis are not intended to be exhaustive. Instead, they provide a 

broad foundation for NASA executive leadership to build on in the formal strategy-formulation process.

Inputs: four scenarios (Step 5 above), internal Aerospace SME analysis, executive interview inputs (Step 

1 above) 

Outputs: candidate strategic options (completion of study Question #3, capturing candidate future paths 

and roles for NASA in light of the uncertain future environment)

Step 7: Cross-Scenario Assessment

This step (bottom right of Figure 2) identifies which candidate strategic options—in Pareto-like fashion—

offer organizational resilience versus their necessary degree of organizational transformation. Each 

strategic option is evaluated against two metrics: (1) the number of future scenarios that the strategy 

offers organizational resilience against (the more, the better), which is evaluated in an internal review by 

the Aerospace foresighting team for their effectiveness at achieving NASA’s candidate North Stars, and 

(2) the degree of organizational transformation necessary to realize the strategy, which is supported by 

inputs from the NASA executive interviews and roundtables. The most preferred strategic options are 

those where the largest number of possible future scenarios are covered and where the least amount of 

organizational transformation is needed.

Additionally, a set of “universal elements” (see Section 8) are detailed with an assessment of current 

NASA performance (based on discussion during roundtables and executive interviews) and the baseline 
9 

trend. The universal elements are underlying activities for an organization to achieve its North Stars and 

strategic goals. These elements are necessary to accomplishing any strategic vision and are areas where 

action can be taken now, regardless of strategy.

Inputs: strategic options (Step 6 above), four scenarios (Step 5 above), North Stars (Step 4 above) 

Outputs: binned strategic options according to their resilience and necessary degree of transformation, 

including preferred strategic options that are high-resilience and require minimal organizational 

transformation, and a list of “universal enablers” that underlie a successful strategic implementation

(study Question #4). 
10

. 

Figure 2. High-level methodological approach taken for this study.
11

Figure 3. Detail of the scenario development and analysis process. 
12

3. Executive Interviews and Roundtables

Here, we provide details about the executive interviews and the roundtables. For the executive interviews, 

we had private discussions with NASA leadership in a virtual setting. The interviewees provided candid 

thoughts on our questions, detailed in Section 3.1. While the topics were far reaching, ranging from

technology on the cusp of usability to workforce concerns, there were common themes with both 

aspirations and fears for the future. One common response across most interviewees was the concern that 

NASA is at a juncture with respect to the business model moving forward. The interviewees recognized 

the uncomfortable juxtaposition between embracing growth in the commercial sector and the 

disappointment from current employees who do not want to see a future where NASA does not continue 

to build space systems in house.

In Section 3.2, we detail each of the seven roundtables. We facilitated the roundtables with a variety of 

participants both internal and external to NASA. The NASA-internal participants also varied with their 

years of experience, role, and NASA Center (for the internal-NASA participants). The external 

participants varied in their years of professional experience, profession, and connection to NASA. We 

held some roundtables virtually and some in person, driving the selection of the foresighting exercises 

towards those most appropriate for the respective venue and time allocated. From these roundtables with 

approximately 200 participants, we gleaned many diverse signals, trends, and disruptors. One common 

theme throughout the roundtables was a general admiration for NASA and its mission, and an excitement 

for the future. While the findings are too many to list in this introduction, the roundtables were a prolific 

source of information feeding the strategic foresighting process for this study.

3.1 Executive Interviews

Eight executive interviews were conducted to help identify North Stars, mission goals, organizational 

alignment, global key trends and disruptors, and the greater aerospace industry context. The executive

interview questions were designed to encourage discussion and draw out insights, with relatively little 

preparation required by interviewees. To facilitate an open discussion, the executive interviews were not 

recorded, and all comments remain unattributed.

During the 45 to 60-minute executive interviews, we guided the discussion with the interviewees along 

the discussion points listed below (the full questions are detailed in Detailed Observations from Executive 

Interviews), which were provided prior to the interview: 

1. In your opinion, what are the top three trends impacting the future? 

2. What excites you most about the future of the broader aerospace enterprise? What emerging or 

adjacent applications are most exciting to you?

3. What scares you the most about the future?

4. What assumptions do you believe are being made about the future? What are the implications if 

these assumptions are wrong?

5. What’s the single most important thing you recommend NASA act on in the near-term to best 

posture itself for a bright future?

6. It’s 2050, describe an aspirational future state for NASA.
13

The interview format allowed for deviation from the discussion points based on the desires of the 

interviewees. The discussion began with a broad focus (note that the first four questions do not mention 

NASA specifically) to collect inputs from outside NASA and then narrowed on NASA-related issues

more specifically. The questions on fears and assumptions about the future provided input to the potential 

future uncertainties/provocative future states. Responses to the interview question 5 provided a starting 

point for potential strategic options to analyze against the scenarios. Responses to question 6 provided 

inputs into NASA’s preferred future state, as well as organizational alignments for this preferred future 

state. The interview responses were used as inputs to the development of the Threadable CONOPS, 

elements of the scenarios, and strategic options/enabling elements. Detailed summaries of the executive 

interview comments are provided in Detailed Observations from Executive Interviews. 

During the interviews, the executives shared their aspirations for NASA’s future including their 

recommendations, as well as their frustrations and concerns. For the top trends impacting the future, 

common topics the executives cited included commercial investment in space and how to partner/

collaborate going forward, “challenges around climate change and sustainability,” internationalization of 

space and “peace through international partnerships like the ISS,” infrastructure maintenance with “50 to 

60-year old facilities,” legislation and policy needs including “roads, stop signs, and driver’s license” for 

space, political polarization with need to “stop the churn from party-to-party politics,” “NASA like a 

JOBS program,” and “train NASA people to be businesspeople.”

In response to the “What excites you about the broader aerospace enterprise?” question, the interviewees 

indicated they were excited about the dynamic future of aerospace, commenting that this is the “most 

exciting time there has ever been.” “Apollo was exciting, but just itself. Today, there is an explosion of 

different ideas and players.” The interviewees were also excited by the potential of several technologies 

including “nuclear systems in space for continuous power and propulsion,” on-orbit servicing and 

manufacturing (OSAM), electric propulsion, “exploitation of AI and ML at scale,” NLP for larger data 

sets, new disruptive launch systems, “hypersonics ... for small payload launches,” and CubeSats. 

“NASA’s ability to use data” is just scratching the surface of its potential, e.g., the “application of climate 

data to third world farmers and mining data in the right hands.” The interviewees largely found the 

integration of the space economy and the regular economy had exciting potential, and the “pipeline of 

talent is exciting, almost limitless, with each class smarter than the last.”

The executives also shared the concerns that keep them awake at night. These fears included shrinking 

budgets, “orbital debris...pollution in space is real hazard and there isn’t an answer,” the explosion of 

new ideas and players in the commercial space, “Wild West stuff going on in space” with regard to the 

large LEO constellations– where is the “oversight, who is liable if something goes wrong,” the “scarcity 

of energy and resources,” “not moving at scale or speed with industry,” “degraded infrastructure to 

support our missions and partners,” and how to train staff under the age of 30, while recognizing that 

these experts that might leave. 

Areas where the executives expressed assumptions that NASA is making about the future included 

“continuing the status quo [despite being] in an environment where people are breaking the molds” like 

“SpaceX re-landing boosters and doing things we said couldn’t be done...for 10% of the budget,” the 

ability to maintain skills and talent, and leading the “long-term vision like the Moon and Mars.” 

When asked to provide recommendations for NASA to act upon in the near future, transformational 

change was a common theme including “how we travel in space,” OSAM, removing “barriers to 

innovation like bureaucracy at all levels,” partnering with commercial and other nations, affordable 

access to space, “failure should be an option if you aren’t going to hurt anyone,” looking “outside your 

walls and bring[ing] those folks in,” creating environment for “ideas stream like the startups,” getting 

“our institution in order,” and being the “technical beacon.”
14

The executives described NASA in 2050 with aspirations like “improves the lives of all Americans” and 

strives “for the benefit of all” though extensive tech transfer, affordable access to space, and inspirational 

leadership. The interviewees envisioned “sustained settlements on the Moon,” (possibly a national lab on 

the Moon), “a colony in Earth orbit,” and a “blueprint for Mars with talk of the next destination, possibly 

Europa.” The interviewees viewed NASA as providing “real time info for climate change,” and NASA 

being more dynamic “achievements in partnership with other nations and industry/commercial.” 

3.2 Roundtables

Seven roundtables were designed and executed to elicit similar information as the executive interview

including preferred futures (mission and vision of NASA), future opportunities, potential critical 

uncertainties, provocative future states, and innovative ideas. A diverse participant list and collaborative 

ideation approach allowed us to gain the broad insights. The roundtables ranged from several hours to a 

full day, depending on the format (in-person was more congenial to longer sessions as participants were 

all in the same time zone, breaks could be built in more logically, no screentime wear out, and data 

collection did not require instructions on learning new tools – pencil and paper versus a new online tool 

for collaboration). The goals of each of the roundtables were slightly different, depending on the 

participants, the format, and the amount of time available for these highly interactive sessions. The 

differing format and length partially lead to the selection of exercises for each roundtable. As executives 

drive organizational decisions, substantial time was spent on mission/vision exercises (e.g., North Stars, 

Dreams and Fears) in those roundtables as compared with the others. Finally, the external roundtable 

focused on external factors impacting NASA and the broader aerospace community, as these participants 

did not have the same level of personal insights into NASA as an institution. 

With Figure 4, we provide a mapping of exercises to each roundtable. The specific goal of each 

foresighting exercise is listed in Table 1. For example, in one roundtable event, the futures web exercises

explored the possibility of a “NewSpace” collapse, the potential for global conflict, and the potential for 

“solving” climate change. These topics were chosen based on the futures baseline and the identification of 

these areas as potentially impacting NASA’s future operating environment. By exploring these topics in 

the futures web activity, potential key elements were identified for use in the scenarios. To ensure a wide 

coverage of topics, we used both the futures baseline and outputs from the previous roundtables to inform 

the subsequent roundtable exercise selections. In Table 2, we show the number of participants by 

roundtable and the goal of each roundtable. Five of the roundtables contained NASA-internal participants. 

Of the five NASA-internal roundtables, four were virtual and one was in-person. The two non-NASA

roundtables were held with one in a virtual format and one in-person. Six of these were hosted and 

facilitated by the Aerospace foresighting team. The intern roundtable was facilitated by NASA with 

Aerospace observing and gathering inputs. 
15

Note: This figure does not include the NASA-designed intern roundtable workshop.

Figure 4. High-level summary of each roundtable indicating which exercises were used. 

Table 1. Goal of Each Roundtable Exercise

EXERCISE GOAL

North Stars Determine potential North star statements for organization and identify if 

there is organizational alignment on North Star,

STEEPTS Key Trends & 

Disruptors

Identify new trends and disruptors that are relevant for organization 

across the entire operating environment.

Mash-ups Illuminate potential unique/provocative future states to inform scenario 

development and elicit thought provoking conversations internally to an 

organization.

Futures Web Identify potential future states, identify consequences of knowns today, 

and elicit thought provoking conversations internally to an organization.

Imagine If? Imagine and articulate future success and desired end states to orient 

towards a more proactive shaping of a preferred future.

Dreams and Fears Have stakeholders explicitly state what they fear most and what they want 

and aspire to most to elicit potential roadblocks and aspirational states.

Defining the future of 

discovery and 

exploration

Identify potential new definitions of discovery and exploration/unique 

methods for pursuing exploration.

Sketch the Future Articulate and envision potential futures to a more tangible degree. 

Engage in creative visioning through drawing and hands on creation of 

future snapshots.

Note: This table does not include exercises used in the NASA-designed intern roundtable workshop.
16

Table 2. Roundtable Formats, Number of Participants, and Goal of Roundtable

Audience (Number of Roundtables) Number of 

Participants

Roundtable Goal

NASA Executive Interviews ~10 Identification of North Stars, mission, and fears for the 

future of NASA and organizational alignment

NASA Executive Roundtables (2) ~30 Identification of North Stars, mission, emerging 

trends/disruptors, and internal NASA alignment

NASA Internal Roundtables (3, 

including ERG and interns)

~100 Identification of global key trends, emerging 

trends/disruptors, and internal NASA alignment

Non-NASA Roundtables (2) ~50 Identification of a broad set of global key trends and 

emerging disruptors, overall context of the aerospace 

industry

While roundtable participants are subject to both explicit and implicit biases, we selected a diverse range 

of participants to ensure objectivity. By incorporating a large range of inputs (internally from executives 

to interns and externally from industry, academia, and international representatives), the impact of bias, 

although it not eliminated, is minimized in the findings.

To promote an open discussion, the roundtables were held under Chatham House Rule19, where 

participants may not reveal either the name or affiliation of anyone participating but may use the 

information received. 

Data collected from the NASA-internal roundtables can be found in Detailed Observations from Internal 

Roundtables. For the virtual roundtables, we used Miro20, an online collaborative whiteboard platform 

that enables distributed teams to work effectively together, from brainstorming with digital sticky notes to 

planning and managing agile workflows. The data includes participant inputs from the online Miro boards 

and summarized notes from the in-person roundtables, as well as graphic recordings of the interactive 

sessions. The roundtable participation is summarized in Table 3. 

Table 3. Futures Roundtable Summary

Futures Roundtable Events Date Participants

(approx.)

NASA-Internal Roundtables 

In-Person Executive 10 May 2022 15

Virtual Executive 13 May 2022 25

Virtual Internal 17 May 2022 25

Virtual Early Career & ERGs 14 July 2022 35

Intern Roundtable (run by NASA) 20 July 2022 30

External Roundtables 

Virtual External 21 June 2022 40

In-Person External 23 June 2022 26

19 “Chatham House Rule” Chatham House, Accessed 14 November 2022, https://www.chathamhouse.org/about-us/chathamhouse-rule

20 “What is Miro?” Miro, Accessed 14 November 2022, https://help.miro.com/hc/en-us/articles/360017730533-What-Is-Miro
17

3.2.1 In-Person Executive Roundtable 

For the in-person NASA-internal executive roundtable, Aerospace facilitated a session with

approximately 15 participants over four hours at NASA Headquarters in Washington D.C. with the 

following high-level agenda: Introductions and playing of an inspirational video, NASA’s Why, Dreams 

and Fears activity, North star identification, Key trends and disruptors, Futures web, and Reflections for 

NASA. Through these selected activities, the executives focused on the future vision, mission, and 

potential challenges for the NASA enterprise.

The NASA executives were asked to consider NASA’s “Why” statement and if it changes in the future. 

Some thought the mission statement would endure unchanged. Others thought the “domain will change, 

but the mission to explore will not change over time.” A domain change could include “our approach to 

seeding,” e.g., funding commercial launch vehicles versus NASA launch vehicles. Another executive 

commented, NASA will be “catalyzing discovery for the good of humanity, even if NASA doesn’t do it, 

NASA will be the catalyst.” Some executives thought the NASA mission statement would change in the 

future and commented, “Initial [mission] statement was about exploration, but it changes to have more 

intentional benefits for humanity.” Others thought the statement should include an understanding of who 

we [NASA] are and how to make space affordable, safe, and profitable.

During the discussion of future fears, the participants recognized that some fears they believed were out 

of NASA’s control (e.g., China, dismantled democracy, politicization of science, commercial space 

disasters, and commercial space monopolies) as well as listing fears they believed to be in NASA’s 

control, listed below. 

• NASA no longer maintains its brand of leading inspirational activities 

• NASA becomes irrelevant 

• NASA becomes an ill-informed contracting organization 

• Commercial industry becomes more advanced than NASA; NASA is just a distraction in the 

space enterprise 

• NASA gives too much leadership to private industry. NASA becomes a funding and goals-only 

organization with no technical expertise or building things in house. What will happen if private 

industry fails, and NASA no longer exists in its current form? What if this new organizational 

structure doesn’t work? 

The next prompt led to a discussion of concerns. One participant expressed their concern that they do not 

feel empowered to address fears even though NASA may be able to do something to prevent them. An 

executive questioned that since “industry is, arguably, already faster, and more capable than NASA, how 

can NASA maintain a unique role in the space enterprise?” “NASA has lost a lot of its agility.” While 

another executive thought that “NASA has become very risk adverse. At some point, NASA lost its 

renegade approach to innovation.” For example: “When a SpaceX rocket had a fire during testing on the 

launchpad, the SpaceX team they took it apart and quickly started testing again. If NASA had a fire on the 

launchpad, it would likely take a year to figure out what happened and resume testing again.” 

Although NASA cannot control all the root-causes of these concerns, the group expressed that NASA 

may be able to influence others to address these fears.
18

Next, participants wrote their dreams and aspirations for NASA’s future and reflected on NASA’s next 

steps. Topics discussed included the frustration of NASA’s “current slow speed, red tape, and 

bureaucracy.” “Most NASA employees still aspire to return to the culture and speed of the Apollo era 

where NASA was an inspirational leader.” Thoughts on solving the bureaucracy problem included 

cycling the workforce in and out to NASA which is difficult since NASA is the “best place to work in the 

federal government.” Another commented that a “permeable border,” where employees leave and return 

to NASA throughout their careers, is needed to encourage agility, although salaries and the ability to 

participate in public-private partnerships limits this. The participant also commented that an 

organizational shift, where NASA is no longer beholden to Title 5 Pay and can work with colleges and 

the private sector, could create this more permeable border. With respect to AI and automation, the 

conversation was framed with the following comment, “Automation aids humans but doesn’t replace 

them.”

In the discussion of “what’s next for NASA,” the topics of exploration, climate change, and policy were 

discussed. The broader question of “who NASA is exploring with, not where or what,” was brought up 

including the following: governments, academia, industry, shifting innovation ecosystems, and the 

changing NASA workforce composition. Exploring climate change and NASA’s role as “the premier 

institution for gathering planetary and climate data” was also discussed. A participant asked, “Can NASA 

use its name brand to tackle these big problems by collaborating across government and industries?” 

Finally, NASA’s role in policy advising was mentioned. “NASA is being asked to advise on policy, but 

NASA doesn’t do policy work.” A concern was expressed that if NASA starts doing prescriptive policy, 

it will no longer be seen as the trusted advisor/keeper of data.

Participants brainstormed potential North Star principles for NASA (detailed in Section 5) and then 

looked for core/universal characteristics and contradictions. Guiding principles identified by the 

executives included the following: agile, trusted, reliable, strategic, discovery driven, shared future, 

advisor, and others. Next, the participants developed key trends and disruptors for five of the seven 

STEEPS areas as documented in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. The last activity was 

the creation of futures webs for three distinct topics: a venture capital/NewSpace collapse, a future where

climate change is “solved,” and a future where a major world conflict erupts. Potential first order, 

secondary, and tertiary impacts of each of these were explored across the STEEPTS, and takeaways for 

NASA from each group of participants were out briefed with details in Detailed Observations from 

Internal Roundtables. Broad takeaways from this roundtable for NASA include the potential need to 1) 

establish a proactive communication strategy between NASA and NewSpace with awareness of health of 

commercial space industry and resilient workforce, 2) establish a strategy for a slow-down or collapse of 

commercial space industry and its impact to innovation, 3) examine impact to NASA if commercial space 

leads in solving climate change, and 4) anticipate the impact of global conflicts on NASA for budget 

scarcity, supply chain and international partnership disruptions, and a shift to war-related technology 

development.

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted a virtual NASA-executive roundtable with approximately 30 

participants over the course of four hours per the following agenda: Introductions, NASA’s Why today 

and in 20 years, Dreams and Fears activity, North Star identification, Key Trends and Disruptors, Futures 

Web, and Reflections for NASA. Through the chosen activities, the executives focused on the future 

vision, mission, and potential challenges for the NASA enterprise.

The detailed roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration 

Miro boards, are included in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. 
19

The first exercise addressed NASA’s mission statement, “NASA explores the unknown in air and space, 

innovates for the benefit of humanity, and inspires the world through discovery.”21 Factors contributing to 

the participants’ viewpoints included climate stability, the burgeoning cislunar economy, the peaceful use 

of space, the “intense push for NASA to be more like NOAA” – a monitoring agency rather than a 

mission-focused agency, and NASA as “a catalyst for thought leadership with youth, for inspiration, and 

for teaching commercial to carry the ball.” One executive commented, “The word is leading. This is our 

chance to define where NASA will lead into the future, while other in industry may continue some of the 

other work.”

The executive roundtable focused next on fears and aspirations for NASA and potential steps to address 

them. Participants were asked to write down their fears regarding the future of their organization, job 

expectations, competition, worst case scenario for 2040, and past failures contributing to their fears. Top 

level fears and concerns from this exercise included: “fear of governmental budget cuts for infrastructure 

at NASA,” “space becomes militarized,” “NASA turns into a regulatory agency,” “vision gets smaller,” 

“U.S. loses position of leadership in space exploration,” “meeting expectations we have for ourselves and 

the public has for us with no budget,” “NASA loses public trust,” commercialization preventing 

R&D/exploration/creative edge and making NASA a “marketplace challenger versus a leader of national 

strategy,” “competing with industry to attract talent,” and “training and mentoring ... next generation of 

leaders.” 

One executive commented, “Biggest fear in my role: NASA's disintegrating infrastructure is underfunded, 

undermaintained, and there is no real path to resolving (politics). No matter how cool the mission, if the 

infrastructure can't support the mission, the agency fails, and all the wonderful things it can do go down 

with that failure. I worry that within the missions, there isn't cohesion or sharp enough focus on few 

enough things to do well - and that only undermines us when we advocate for budget. Worst case scenario 

in 40 years is a NASA that doesn't exist. Past informing this, it's incredibly grim from a funding 

standpoint. We're drowning in budget gaps, immense pressure to cut personnel, and not enough people to 

do anything well. It's incredibly frustrating. It's like watching something rot from the inside out.... I love 

working here, I want so badly for the agency to transition to an inspiring, groundbreaking future, but right 

now I am very worried.” 

Another executive commented, “First thing people think when they see a new organizational strategy: 

‘Do I still have my job?’ NASA needs to think about its people. Whatever the new vision is, everyone 

needs to see themselves in it. People have spent their entire careers working at the organization, so what 

does it mean for them if you just coming along and say, ‘oops, we're going in a different direction 

now’?"  

Takeaways from the fears exercise included a focus on “execution” since “fears are outside my control,” 

“maintain/upgrade infrastructure to ensure future capability,” overcoming NASA’s “internal processes 

and culture that inhibit innovation at the speed of private sector”, “leading international consortium” (not 

exploiting international partnerships), and “leveraging private sector innovation and partnerships,” and 

being the “catalyst for innovation, discovery, and exploration.” 

The group also identified guiding North Stars for the what the future of NASA should be. The executives 

selected words including inspirational, innovation, credible, inclusive, bold, lead, collaborative, 

pioneering, agile, expert, disrupt, transformative, “less talk, more do,” forward-thinking, industrysupporting, evolve, and others as documented in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables as 

21 “Our Missions and Values,” NASA, Accessed 5 November 2022, https://www.nasa.gov/careers/our-mission-and-values. 
20

potential North Star words to aspire towards. Next, key trends and disruptors were brainstormed as 

documented in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. 

The Futures Web activity focused participants on four potential future events/trends (NewSpace collapse, 

commercial commoditizing climate mitigation technologies, the metaverse, and life outside of Earth) and 

the impact they might have on NASA. Broad takeaways for NASA from this activity included the 

potential fragility to embracing NewSpace and commercial capabilities wholesale, benefits of exploring 

dual-use space technologies (for climate, etc.) and partnerships, opportunities for considering workforce 

of the future and potential for NASA to be left behind if not embraced, and significant opportunities for 

international cooperation around future exploration of universe.

Overall, the executives had positive takeaways for the future of NASA centering around themes of 

NASA’s mission for humankind, a diverse workforce, public and private partnerships, international 

collaboration, climate change mitigation, NASA technology development for non-aerospace applications, 

and the “great, passionate people still working at NASA,” but were cautioned by concerns with budget 

constraints, infrastructure maintenance, and political churning.

3.2.2 Virtual NASA-Internal Roundtable

The virtual NASA-internal roundtable hosted approximately 25 non-executive NASA employee 

participants from across the agency for four hours on Zoom with the following high-level agenda:

introductions, key trends and disruptors, mash-ups, futures web, “Imagine If”, and an implications 

discussion for NASA. The participants represented a broad range of experience levels at NASA, spanning 

from 18 months to 35 years, with majority of participants falling within the 10 to 15-year of service range. 

Throughout the roundtable exercises, the participants echoed recurring themes of the need for diversity, 

transformation, agility, leadership, and collaboration at NASA, including implementation ideas. One 

participant’s biggest takeaway from the roundtable event was “[NASA has] a lack of focus on NASA’s 

mission and vision statement with more focus on industry.”

The detailed roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration 

Miro boards, are included in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. Following the 

introductions, the group participated in a brainstorming activity to document key trends and disruptors in 

the seven STEEPTS areas as shown in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. 

During the Mash-up activity (specific prompts detailed in Detailed Observations from Internal 

Roundtables), key takeaways for NASA included the following: ensure NASA remains relevant and 

balanced with the shift to commercial; if NASA becomes viewed as a luxury, not a necessity, tap into 

entrepreneurial nature of U.S. with science that has a high ROI, like the commercial efforts now on ISS; 

use AI to process all the data NASA is collecting in a meaningful way, focus on the unsolved problems; 

seize opportunities to learn from diversity of thought; and allocate time to training NASA’s next 

generation. 

Next, the group split up into three subgroups to explore possibilities of the future using the Future’s Web 

activity. The smaller groups examined the following three scenarios and their impacts on NASA: scaling 

inclusivity and equity in exploration, commercial overpowering government, and a breakthrough in 

interstellar spaceflight. Key takeaways for NASA included exploring deeper commitments into pursuing

opportunities to seed DEI in NASA’s business and STEM education, examining threats to earth and space 

environment from unregulated commercial activity, rethinking unique leadership needs for NASA with 

NewSpace developments, and preparing NASA for dramatic changes due to technology breakthroughs or 

global developments and power shifts. 
21

During the “Imagine If” activity, participants described the best possible future state of NASA. The 

following themes emerged: “advancing the NASA mission and creating a sustainable presence in space,”; 

focusing “on exploration and technology and [letting] go of shepherding in commercial companies to 

refocus on our core competencies,”; “making NASA better but maximizing the potential impact of the 

individuals involved with the missions,”; “pushing the boundaries of our planetary exploration 

capabilities,”; leading “the world in scientific exploration,”; integrating innovation “across centers and 

there is true diversity in decision making,”; rejecting “sunk costs as a basis for decision making,” and 

partnering with “anyone that shares our goals and aspirations.” Participants were asked, “What are some 

key differences between today’s state of NASA and the future state that will require big change?” 

Respondents cited the need to “diversify and become more resilient,” “to become more nimble, reduce 

red tape, and figure out how to collaborate across Centers,” to “transform to a yes culture, take ‘no’ out of 

our vocabulary,” to change from an “old boys network,” to have “transformational/inspirational 

leadership,” to train skilled managers rather than “fail up into management,” and add more civil servants 

since “NASA is stretched thin due to many external forcing functions.”

3.2.3 Virtual Early Career and Employee Resource Group (ERG) Roundtable 

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted a virtual NASA early career and Employee Resource Group 

(ERG) roundtable with approximately 35 participants from across the agency in a 2-hour session on 

Zoom. The roundtable focused on aspirational views for the future per the following agenda: 

introductions, directed questions, key trends and disruptors (STEEPTS), mash-ups, and key takeaways for 

NASA.

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, are included in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. The first activity asked the 

participants to describe the most exciting thing happening today and predicted to happen in 20 years. The 

participants noted expanding a human presence from the moon to further out in the solar system, moving 

toward action on DEI and accessibility at NASA, a broader application of satellite data for farmers and 

climate solutions, “hyper efficient air travel,” and resource mining and advance manufacturing in space. 

During the exercise to identify key trends and disruptors across STEEPTS, the early career and ERG 

roundtable participants’ responses had a noticeable focus on quality of life and workforce concerns 

including “normalization of overworking and not taking vacations,” loyalty to companies with “younger 

generation’s willingness to leave unsatisfactory jobs,” “NASA not encouraging geographically diverse 

applicants,” “economic income inequality is now at 1900 levels,” “housing prices,” “exponentially 

expensive world relative to stagnant government pay,” “college/university debt becoming untenable,” 

“alignment of career with organization that share values,” and “universal paid parental leave.” This list 

can be found in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables. 

The group was then divided into three breakout rooms for two rounds of mash-up exercises. Key 

takeaways for NASA included: “having NASA’s own house in order impacts international relations,” as 

“autonomy gets linked into more and more critical industries, the question of liability could have life-ordeath consequences for both individuals and nation-states,” “how might NASA’s futures ethics protocol 

evolve for enhancing biospheres for human sustainability,” and “who’s controlling the resources will 

drive behavior on Earth and in space.” 

Participants expressed appreciation that “Agency leadership is thinking about the big picture” and their 

desire to see the “outcome of these roundtables and share with the ERGs across the agency.” Notable 

takeaway included that was that there was a perceived lower level of loyalty from younger workforce to 

their employer when they “can’t afford cars or homes,” a hope for “systemic development of minority 

employees,” a desire for sharing of NASA’s “cool work to help the planet” with those who need the 
22

information, and that “NASA should be constantly assessing these potential disruptors” for impact to 

NASA.

3.2.4 Virtual NASA Intern Roundtable (Led by NASA)

Following the format of the Aerospace-led roundtables, an intern in NASA OTPS organized and led a

two-hour virtual roundtable with over 30 NASA interns in attendance and Aerospace representatives 

observing to gather inputs for this study. The stated goal was to “advise NASA leadership on mission 

priorities and studies/strategy for NASA’s future.” The data collected during the intern roundtable and 

summarized in Appendix C is provided courtesy of NASA and included in this report since it was used to 

inform the study results. 

The roundtable workshop was kicked off with two polls asking, “What excites you about the future (40+ 

years)?” and “What scares you about the future (40+ years)?” “Exploration” / “technology” and “climate”

/ “instability” were the most popular responses, respectively, to the questions. When asked about what the 

future will look like, the interns were somewhat pessimistic in the virtual chat about the future. The 

interns were concerned about “knowledge transfer” at NASA and “upward mobility for people in thirties 

and younger.” Participants also commented on the impact of politics on the militarization of space, equity 

of access to space, and on the risk to Mars mission – “political climate can delay or derail us from getting 

to Mars.”

When asked about how NASA can act in the near-term to best posture itself for a bright future, the interns 

commented on education initiatives, diversity in the workplace, loss of talent to higher pay alternatives, 

public outreach and support, communication strategies that show importance of NASA’s mission, 

collaboration, international partnerships that transcend politics, and embracing “systems thinking.” When 

comparing NASA to industry, participants noted that NASA is more risk adverse and “not allowed to 

fail” whereas private industry is allowed to fail. Also, NASA can lead by example by having “realistic 

working conditions in the space industry” as commercial industries are “somewhat exploiting their 

workers.” An important impact of NASA as the “most positive government organization” is to “get young 

people to think about science.”

The interns were asked to write their ideal futures. They commented on early career rotational programs, 

cross-center transfer opportunities, and the need to rethink the future workplace. They were positive about 

the work at LaRC on workspace analysis and redesign, making it more of a “university feel” with 

collaborative spaces. Several in the group complained about the MSFC old facilities with asbestos and 

“bland and dated” interiors. A desire for diverse hiring, mental health and wellbeing of employees, and 

low cost and comprehensive healthcare was also noted.

3.2.5 Virtual External Roundtable

The virtual external roundtable hosted approximately 40 participants over the course of four hours on 

Zoom per the following agenda: key trends and disruptors, diving into exploration and discovery, mashups, futures web, and reflections for NASA. The participants included representatives from academia, 

military technical advisors, AI/ML and cloud technologies, writing genres, entertainment, space venture 

capitalists, commercial space companies, and others. Although many comments about the future were 

pessimistic, some participants commented that discussing the future brought about a more optimistic 

outlook.

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, and graphic recordings are included in Detailed Observations from External RoundtablesMuch of 
23

the external roundtables were captured in the graphic recordings available in the Appendix, and thus let 

detail is provided here.

The first activity was to document trends and disruptors across STEEPTS as shown in Detailed 

Observations from External Roundtables. As a group, the external participants provided a more diverse 

set of trends and disruptors than the internal roundtables. The “Threat” and “Space” categories were 

covered within the other categories and thus these categories were not focused on during the roundtable. 

During the discussions, the following comments were noted:

• “NASA has an outsized role compared to other government agencies because it is the most 

positive brand in the U.S. government (and possibly the world). This gives NASA an outsized 

responsibility to think globally.” 

• "’Indigenizing science’- “...indigenous groups and tribal bands [the] around [the] world getting 

together with allies and scientists to bring in thousands of years of inter-generational 

understanding to share inputs on major topics of interest (e.g., climate). Need to also incorporate 

into [this] space exploration.” 

• “Treat space as object of appreciation and protection, not an economic narrative for exploitation 

of resources. Don't want space to become landfill. Troubling that most conversation about settling 

Mars includes terraforming and destroying its current natural beauty and turning it into a suburb 

of Earth. Today we have the sense of space being endless, but we're possible / probably falling 

prey to the same fallacy.” 

• “While many comments come from an apathetic or dystopian/pessimistic standpoint, venture 

capitalists see lots of pitches of emerging technologies that are really inspiring. If even a small 

fraction of these technologies come to fruition, then the future is going to be very bright. Very 

optimistic. What drives the pessimism? Culture? Politics? We live in the most peaceful and 

equitable times that humanity has ever seen, compared to 100, 500, 1000 years in the past. Things 

are not great, but a lot better.” 

• “Fascinating to watch the rise of non-classical actors... covering all parts of the space 

enterprise... Working with global space players (Rwanda, Nigeria, Angola, etc.). Nobody knew 

Angola was doing anything, then suddenly, they have 200 engineers.” 

• “Fundamental thing that makes us human is our curiosity; hope that we can do exploration 

without exploitation.” 

• “All the problems of the world find their way to remote places like Hawaii, so why wouldn't they 

also find their way to space, to a space station, to a space colony on Mars?” 

• “Asteroids are for extraction; the Moon is for tourism. The Moon's advantage is time (you can get 

there fast, but it takes a lot of energy), near-Earth asteroids are better bets because you can get a 

lot more resources out of them, but it takes a long time, and you can't put people there.” 

• “Government does R&D when there isn't an obvious commercial argument for investment.” 

• “Should NASA be looking at second-generation propulsion instead of chemical rockets? There's 

plenty of commercial R&D for chemical rockets.” 
24

Following the exercises, the external participants shared their biggest takeaways which included the 

following: “process is not a substitute for vision and action,” “thinking through possible future, optimism 

was able to emerge,” “don’t let the ‘how’ block the ‘why’,” “Africa has a lot to contribute to this 

conversation,” STEEPTS landscape will change, “What sustainable foundations are we building,” need to 

communicate how “space is deeply intertwined with plant Earth,” and what is NASA’s global 

responsibility since “NASA is the most positive brand in the U.S. government.”

3.2.6 In-Person External Roundtable

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted the in-person external roundtable with over 20 participants over 

the course of a full day in Crystal City, Virginia. A detailed listed of attendees and their biographies is 

available in Table 40. The participants included a wide range of space and non-space backgrounds 

including those from academia, public policy, science fiction, venture capital, investment banking, design 

innovation, space law, futurists, entertainment, cislunar, DEI education in tech, and NGOs. The 

roundtable had the following high-level agenda: exploring the changing broader global environment 

(STEEPTS), signals mash-ups, discovering the possibilities of the future of discovery and exploration, 

futures webs, sketch the future of discovery and exploration, and overall discussion of implications. The 

details are contained in Detailed Observations from External Roundtables. The external roundtables were 

captured through graphic recordings available in Detailed Observations from External Roundtables. 

Participants brought examples of innovating exploration which included the following: robots using AI in 

mining, in-space manufacturing (needs customers for use in space), and augmented interspecies 

communication (FluentPet). Next, the participants answered questions about the meaning of space 

discovery and how to make it important to all people. Ideas to keep space relevant to the masses included 

the message that “everyone is an underdog when we’re in space,” “not everyone has to buy in ... [but] 

non-technical people [need to] feel they fit into the bigger picture,” invest money into bringing 

communities in that have not been represented in the past – like a “docuseries made by HBCU students 

about what it’s like to be a human in space,” “use TikTok ... [it] is important for education,” and 

storytellers (movies like For All Mankind) may be more impactful than NASA on people’s interest in 

space. At the conclusion of the roundtable, the external participants noted key takeaways: 

• “What does the future of aviation look like? Brings up the question of what NASA’s role is in all 

of this. NASA needs to maintain the fuel of humanity. NASA has been that brand.” 

• “When you’re trying to change people’s minds they go through (1) denial, (2) resistance, (3) 

exploration, (4) acceptance, (5) manifestation, etc. Just moving people into resistance is a step 

forward!” 

• “It seems like some people at NASA and especially on the Hill think that space development and 

settlements are likely going to happen in this lifetime or perhaps in 10-20 years. A lot of us see 

human exploration to Mars and settlements happening more quickly than we might expect — 

how can we communicate that to the ‘haters’?” 

• “From the activist and educator perspective, this workshop helped give insights into the future 

that activists need to focus on. Opportunity and the future aren’t equally distributed. Girls and 

communities of color need to be ready to participate and be in the room for these future leaning 

activities. This session was a call to action!” 
25

4. Drivers, Trends, and Disruptors

To build the four future scenarios, we relied on the inputs as discussed in Section 2, which include:

drivers, trends, and emerging disruptors. Drivers, trends, and emerging disruptors determine the 

conditions (forces) that are actively shaping the current environment. A driver is a significant force 

pushing change, a trend is a perceptible vector (with magnitude and direction) for which change is 

characterized, and an emerging disruptor is a tangible manifestation in the present of what is possible to 

come (which may or may not scale into an emerging or established trend but offers a potential window 

into the future). 

4.1 Drivers

Figure 5 is a description of nine of the drivers of space activities, specifically in the context of civil 

activities but in many cases applicable to all space applications. These drivers are derived from “Strategic 

Foresight for the Space Enterprise”22 and provided a baseline to begin the discussion about trends and 

disruptors during the roundtables. They also help inform the critical uncertainties going into the 

Threadable CONOPS.

Figure 5. Detailed list of major underlying currents impacting space activities. 

4.2 Trends and Disruptors

Trends are indicators of future change and must meet two criteria: (1) the trend must be increasing, 

decreasing, or changing in some fundamental way, and (2) its change must be documented by a credible 

source. These trends detailed here were collected both from the roundtables and ITONICS (software 

leveraged as part of Aerospace’s proprietary horizon scanning process). We also included the emerging 

disruptors (i.e., current signals that may or may not result in a future trend but present the potential to 

substantially impact the global landscape) in this comparison. Emerging disruptors are innovations that 

represent upcoming change, and by identifying these signals, signposts can be defined. Signposts are 

indicators that can be monitored to signal that an emerging disruptor is turning into a trend or that a trend 

is changing in nature.

22 Cunzeman, K. and Dickey, R. “Strategic Foresight for the Space Enterprise,” Center for Space Policy and Strategy, The 

Aerospace Corporation, https://csps.aerospace.org/papers/strategic-foresight-space-enterprise
26

The scenarios in Section 6.3 were built upon the trends catalogued below. The Aerospace team 

synthesized hundreds of inputs from the roundtables, interviews, and other sources into 20-30 overarching

trends and disruptors in each major category (STEEPTS). Table 4, through Table 8 show the binned 

categories of trends and disruptors identified in each of the Aerospace-facilitated roundtables for Societal, 

Technological, Economic, Environmental, and Political areas respectively. The “threat” and “space” 

categories in the STEEPTS framework are not called out separately here because inputs in those areas

were usually already captured in the others. These tables combine the two NASA-executive roundtables 

(in-person and virtual) into a single column and the two external roundtables into another single column. 

There are rows where no inputs are associated with roundtable input (e.g., “Integration of technology with 

intelligent animals” in Table 5). The absence of checkmarks in that row indicates that the trend or 

disruptor appeared in the ITONICS scan for trends and disruptors but was not identified in the 

roundtables. This outcome is reasonable and expected and highlights the value of using diverse sources of 

trends and disruptors. We advise the reader to take all inputs at face value regardless of which group 

provided it as an input. Furthermore, having an input appear in several or all the roundtables does not 

necessarily equate to strength or importance of the input per se; this situation could happen because the 

input is relatively well known to the participants (who are diverse but possess many similarities) or is a 

response to a recent current event. 

Table 4. A Binned List of the Societal Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables 

NASA EarlyCareerNASA Internal 

(Senior Staff)

NASA 

Executive External

Focus on DEIA initiatives    

Growing inequality  

Prevalence / use of social media, shortening attention spans   

Growing self-centered attitude, personalization of everything   

Growing divisiveness and manipulation of information    

Globalization of communication and relationships  

Challenge hiring and retaining STEM talent    

Geographic dispersion of workforce / remote work   

Proliferation of collaborative tools   

Demand for more benefits in workplace  

Alignment of job and personal values  

Loss of confidence in "expert" community or science in general   

Anti-immigrant and anti-globalization sentiment 

Skepticism of placing trust in government, corporations, and other institutions 

Global cultural homogenization 

Disillusionment with higher education 

Nomadic lifestyle ("van life")  

Increasing fragility of supply chains  

Growing implementation and reliance on AI 

Aging population and delay of child rearing  

Environmentalism 

Ethical consumerism 

Ubiquitous tracking and surveillance 

Intergenerational living arrangements 

Uncertainty, unease, and pessimism about the future 

Shift in focus to short-term returns, neglect of long-term projects  

End of ownership, everything on subscription model 



 







 



 



Legalization of marijuana, other pharmaceuticals

Declining birth rates

DISRUPTORS

Deepfakes

Societal Trends & Disruptors

Telehealth

Mass automation of service industry

AI in food supply chain

AI in design

Blockchain and digital currency

Ubiquitous surveillance

Roundtable Inputs

TRENDS

Social Justice

Interpersonal 

Relationships

Workplace / 

Workforce

Community Trust

Lifestyle / Quality 

of Life

Building Wealth
27

Table 5. A Binned List of the Technological Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables 

 

NASA EarlyCareerNASA Internal 

(Senior Staff)

NASA 

Executive External

Shift to green technologies  

Advanced energy storage  

Advanced nuclear power generation 

Application of AI/ML to all aspects of life    

Cloud computing, storage of all personal and corporate data in cloud   

Ubiquitous application of blockchain  

Shift of tech staff and big innovation from government to commercial 

Acceptance of failure 

Non-traditional education platforms (e.g., YouTube, TikTok) 

Transition to subscription model of ownership for hardware 

Universal connectivity between people and devices, internet of things    

Balkanization of connectivity regimes, separate information ecosystems 

Data management and cybersecurity   

Proliferation of new and/or smaller satellite form factors 

Diversification and proliferation of spacelift industry  

Expansion of commercial space applications, commercial exploitation of LEO   

In-situ resource utilization (ISRU), in-space manufacturing (ISM)  

Advances in nuclear propulsion 

Advanced genetics, designer medicine, and bioengineering    

Additive manufacturing  

Design and grow organic practical articles and building materials*

Quantum technology (computing, communication, encryption, etc.)   

Autonomous technologies  

Miniaturization of sensors  

Augmented reality, life in the metaverse   

Human-machine interfaces    

Integration of technology with intelligent animals 







 









 



  



 







  

 

 











* Indicates this Trend/Disruptor came from a source other than the Roundtables.

Nuclear fusion

Ultra-dense power storage*

DISRUPTORS

Technological Trends & Disruptors

Metaverse

Therapeutics with mRNA-based technology

AI-generated art

Major world powers disconnect from global Internet

Artificial wombs

Efficient and cheap desalination and water extraction

Self-aware computers

Right to repair

Laboratory-on-a-chip biomedical devices

Cybernetic implants

Gene editing / CRISPR

Carbon capture / sequestration

Ubiquitous surveillance

Self-assembling / self-replicating robots

Crowdsourced funding of S&T

Distributed power generation

Life extension

AI that generates better AI

Commercial mining of the Solar System

Roundtable Inputs

TRENDS

Energy and 

Environment

Computing

Science/Tech 

Culture

Information

Space

Manufacturing

Humans and Tech

Augmented reality

In-space assembly and servicing (ISAM), in-space manufacturing (ISM)

Hyperlocal micromanufacturing

Bioprinting

Telemedicine
28

Table 6. A Binned List of the Economic Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables

 

NASA EarlyCareerNASA Internal 

(Senior Staff)

NASA 

Executive External

Crowdfunding   

Increasingly aggressive or predatory investment environment  

Conscientious / virtuous investing 

Fads in novel investment instruments and platforms (e.g., NFTs, Robinhood)  

Space embraced by Silicon Valley and startup community 

On-shoring of critical industries*

High housing prices, persistent / frequent bubble(s) for everything  

Food insecurity 

Shift to subscription model for most/all consumption 

Taxes to offset environmental externalities  

Extraterrestrial resource extraction  

Commercial industries with state-level power and resources  

Brands as markers of political identity 

Amassing debt of all kinds    

Population not saving / unable to save for retirement 

Wealth concentration and inequality, socioeconomic stratification    

Continued emptying of rural communities 

Rise of digital currencies, cryptocurrency adoption by state actors    

Inflation    

Transition away from dollar as global reserve currency 

Labor shortages in service industry  

Workplace churn (turnover, security, recruitability) 

Stagnant real wages 

Alternative work paradigms (e.g., gig economy, 4-day work week)  

 

 



 



 

















* Indicates this Trend/Disruptor came from a source other than the Roundtables.

Extension of human lifespan to >120 years

Nation state adopts cryptocurrency as legal tender

United States defaults on debt*

DISRUPTORS

Economic Trends & Disruptors

Widespread adoption of universal basic income (UBI)

Mass automation of service industry

Collapse of cryptocurrency system

Terrorism enters the metaverse

Asteroidal ores crash commodity markets

Real-estate transactions in metaverse exceed that in real world

Shift from home ownership to universal rental / corporate ownership of housing

Gig economy becomes dominant mode of employment

Collapse of international-student attendance in US higher education

Aging workforce

Conflict over resource scarcity

Digital dollar, elimination of cash currencies

Roundtable Inputs

TRENDS

Investment

Consumption

Wealth 

Management

Distribution of 

Wealth

Finance and 

Monetary Policy

Employment
29

Table 7. A Binned List of the Environmental Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables

NASA EarlyCareerNASA Internal 

(Senior Staff) NASA Executive External

More destructive / less predictable weather events, other climate changes   

Embrace of nuclear as green energy, other alternative fuels and energy sources   

Greenwashing  

Sustainable farming, locavorism  

Reduction in meat consumption, rise of new meat alternatives  

Loss of genetic diversity in food supply 

Corporate monopoly on agricultural gene pool 

Environmental over-exploitation and resource depletion   

Frequent introduction of invasive species   

Loss of biodiversity 

Research into resurrection of extinct species 

Environmental tourism / ecotourism 

Preference for public transportation, generational disinterest in owning a car 

Exponential growth in space population and debris    

Satellite constellations imperiling ground-based astronomy  

Cooling upper atmosphere impacts LEO satellite lifetime*

Investment in desalination and other water-extraction tech 

Bio-mimicry (learning from nature to design smarter, better tech) 







 

 

 



 











 









* Indicates this Trend/Disruptor came from a source other than the Roundtables.

DISRUPTORS

Environmental Trends & Disruptors

Solar flares, large coronal mass ejections

Transition to electrical vehicles, prohibition of internal combustion engines

Large-scale, high-efficiency desalination

Resurrection of extinct species

Genetic modifications to tolerate climate change

Kessler Syndrome on orbit

Gamification and crowdsourcing of climate-change solutions

Extinction of pollinators

Biological solutions to waste disposal (e.g., plastic-eating bacteria)

New pandemic(s) emerging from melting ice and permafrost

Massive release of methane from melting permafrost

Asteroid impact

Large-scale geoengineering

Climate-induced food shortages

Food shortages due to widespread resistance to GMOs

Broadly palatable meat alternatives and synthetic food

"Blue Arctic" for shipping

Viability of high latitudes for agriculture

Roundtable Inputs

TRENDS

Agriculture and 

Food

Ecology

Personal Action

Space 

Environment
30

Table 8. A Binned List of the Political Trends and Disruptors Comparing the Inputs from the Roundtables

 

Through horizon scanning, the Aerospace team actively monitors trends and emerging disruptors across 

key areas using ITONICS. Below are nine major trends identified, many of which have significant 

support from the above tables:

1. Commercial space activity: The increasing use of space for diverse purposes by commercial 

companies is leading to a new opportunity for NASA to source technology, capabilities, and 

insights. On the other hand, the growing commercial viability for space companies may force 

NASA to reevaluate its mission, capabilities, and staffing portfolio. 

2. Increased impacts from and focus on climate change: The effects of climate change are becoming 

more readily apparent with increased frequency of intense storms, droughts, heat waves, as well 

as rising sea levels, and warming oceans. This changing landscape has provided pressures and 

increased resource competition in countries with too much/not enough water and opportunities, 

such as the opening of new shipping routes in the Arctic and changing agricultural landscapes.

3. Degree of connectivity and cybersecurity: The population is increasingly becoming more 

connected, partially due to ubiquitous sensing and internet from space, leading to new social 

dynamics and the rise of increased cybersecurity needs.

4. Synthetic biology: Genetic modification as a competitive advantage is becoming more apparent as 

companies like Monsanto launch new products, and synthetic biology is increasingly being used 

for human modification such as growing organs for humans.

5. Greater use of autonomous systems: Increased utilization of autonomous systems is most 

noticeable in attention-grabbing headlines about unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) and selfNASA EarlyCareer

NASA Internal 

(Senior Staff) NASA Executive External

Focus primarily on near-term political gain 

Return to use of proxy wars for achieving geopolitical ends  

Diminishing judicial deference to stare decisis 

Growing divisiveness and polarization   

Domination by left and right extremes, no voices in center 

Return to geopolitical bifurcation between East and West spheres of influence 

Bifurcation of space community into East vs. West spheres of influence 

Loss of confidence in "expert" community  

Loss of confidence in government for solutions to big problems    

Manipulation / weaponization of information  

Anti-immigrant sentiment 

Global resurgence of nationalism  

Proliferation of space agencies around the world  

Rise of African economic and geopolitical power(s) 

Belief that societal problems require political solutions 

Confluence of political identity and employment 

Interest in alternative voting methodologies (e.g., ranked-choice, popular vote) 

New governance models, digital communities, and societies 













 



 



DISRUPTORS

Accession of one or more new states to the Union 

Universal private schooling

Expansion of war to cyber domain

Perpetual un-peaceful transfer of power

Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) circumventing censorship

Catastrophic failure of national infrastructure

Deepfakes

National or corporate claiming of extraterrestrial territory

Modifications to US Supreme Court structure (e.g., number of justices, term limits)

War in space

Ranked-choice voting, popular vote for US Presdent

Roundtable Inputs

TRENDS Political Means 

and Ends

Domestic and 

Global Division

Political and 

Community Trust

Global Politics

Politicization of 

Everything

Political Science

Political Trends & Disruptors
31

driving cars, but greater use of autonomous systems is greatly affecting businesses and 

governments.

6. Volatility of the domestic political environment: US domestic politics is in a period of increased

polarization and volatility as compared with previous decades. One relevant impact of the resulting 

unpredictability is the politicization of science and research. Agencies that perform science and 

research are under increasing scrutiny and priorities may swing more readily as the political 

administration changes.

7. Changes in international geopolitical environment: The international geopolitical environment is 

changing with respect to cooperation, competition, and conflict. For agencies that have many 

international partnerships, the change in geopolitical relationships (as well as the rise of new 

ones) can lead to large impacts.

8. Workforce of the future: The COVID-19 pandemic caused a major shift in the global workforce, 

with continuing ramifications in workers’ rights movements; increased demand for people to 

work from home; and infrastructure pressure changes, including greater computing/data 

requirements, differing pressures on support infrastructure within cities, and less commute 

infrastructure.

9. Supply chains and disruption: COVID-19 brought to light massive vulnerabilities within the 

supply chains that keep the United States operational. The lack of resilience causes, and will 

continue to cause, multi-country breakdowns in supply chains.

While many of the above trends may have been previously identified by NASA, it is important to 

continuously update and monitor the environment to proactively manage the impact of these trends and 

ensure an understanding of the vector of these trends. For instance, historically there have been many 

trends that suddenly switch direction, leading to potential resiliency gaps for those not actively 

monitoring these trends. Figure 6 depicts an example of the emerging disruptors identified as relevant to 

NASA through horizon scanning. Each emerging disruptor is graded by experts on its potential impact on 

the global landscape from severe to minimal. 

Figure 6. Custom scanning of relevant future emerging disruptors and trends with tagging of more than 1000 

existing signals in the database to select ones relevant to NASA and identification of more than 60 key emerging 

disruptors for NASA. The colored and numbered circles represent emerging disruptors, detailed in the text below.
32

The 15 emerging disruptors (numbered/colored circles) shown in Figure 6 are detailed below. The full list 

of emerging disruptors identified through horizon scanning, as well as those identified during the 

roundtables, is available in Detailed Trends and Disruptors, Detailed Observations from Internal 

Roundtables, and Detailed Observations from External Roundtables. We selected these 15 signals to 

provide a sample of what was uncovered using ITONICS. These signals were not selected to be allinclusive of the ITONICS output but to showcase findings that may not be immediately obvious to the 

space community at large. Trend tracking through ITONICS does not necessarily provide a 

comprehensive or in-depth review of each topic; the purpose is to capture signals of trends and disruptors.

1. “New Study Highlights the Link between Greater Green Space and Reduced Loneliness” 23: 

Adults in urban areas where there is at least 30% green space, have a lower chance of 

becoming lonely compared to those with less than 10% green space. Limiting loneliness has 

many impacts on health, depression, heart disease, inflammation, dementia, and death. 

2. “Google Toxicity-Reducing Filter Processing 500M Requests Daily: Benevolence or Thought 

Control” 24: An open-source API created by Google that “uses machine learning models to 

score the perceived impact a comment might have on a conversation. You can use this score 

to give feedback to commenters, help moderators more easily review comments, allow 

readers to find interesting or productive comments more easily” is currently processing over 

500M requests, daily. This technology can be used to reduce the “toxicity” of online content. 

However, the use of machine learning to process online conversations has the potential 

downside of steering conversations in ways that are potentially unknown (or even 

advantageous to specific groups). Machine learning-based content moderation has 

interesting implications for public discourse.

3. “X-risk: Race toward artificial superintelligence”: A race may develop between major players 

toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) once it becomes clear that AGI’s creation is 

possible with resources available at the time. Safety may be sacrificed at the expense of speed 

to maintain first mover advantage. Should an unfriendly recursively self-improving artificial 

general superintelligence be developed, it could represent an existential threat toward human 

survival. On the contrary, a beneficial superintelligence could herald a golden age for 

humanity and its descendants.25

4. “3D-printed Lung-Mimicking Air Sac Brings Functioning Bio-Printed Organs a Step Closer” 26: Synthetic gels were once a wonder because they are light and provide structural support. 

However, as they were static, this signal suggests a new materials growth technique for 

synthetic gels that flex (a 3D-printed lung is the demonstration).

5. High-density, ultra-low-energy digital computing: “Electronic symmetry breaking by charge 

disproportionation results in multifaceted changes in the electronic, magnetic, and optical 

properties of a material, triggering ferroelectricity, metal/insulator transition, and colossal 

magnetoresistance. Yet, charge disproportionation lacks technological relevance because it 

occurs only under specific physical conditions of high or low temperature or high pressure. 

Here we demonstrate a voltage-triggered charge disproportionation in thin molecular films of 

a metal–organic complex occurring in ambient conditions. This provides a technologically 

23 “New Study Highlights the Link between Greater Green Space and Reduced Loneliness”, World Economic Forum, June 15,

2021. 

24 “Google Toxicity-Reducing Filter Processing 500M Requests Daily: Benevolence or Thought Control,” Perspective API, 

February 10, 2021. 25 Bostrum, N., “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies, ” University of Oxford, 2014. 26 “3D-printed Lung-Mimicking Air Sac Brings Functioning Bio-Printed Organs a Step Closer,” Science Focus, June 9, 2019.
33

relevant molecular route for simultaneous realization of a ternary memristor and a binary 

memcapacitor, scalable down to a device area of 60 nm2

. Supported by mathematical 

modelling, the results establish that multiple memristive states can be functionally 

nonvolatile, yet discrete—a combination perceived as theoretically prohibited. The device 

could be used as a binary or ternary memristor, a binary memcapacitor, or both concomitantly 

and, unlike the existing “continuous state” memristors, its discrete states are optimal for highdensity, ultra-low-energy digital computing.”27

6. “Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek and It Was an ʽOverwhelming Success’” 28: As remote 

work became a roaring success for both companies and employees during the pandemic, it 

opened eyes to new possibilities of how we can have a better life-work balance. 

7. Federal debt continues rapid increase: Federal debt is over $27T and is currently above yearly 

GDP of $19.5T due to the pandemic. There has been concern that if the debt reaches a point 

over 100% of GDP, then there could be consequences.29

8. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) says active climate cooling should be considered: NAS 

is not yet recommending geoengineering to bounce heat back into space but recommends an

“emergency plan” be investigated. The report looks at three possible ways to cool the air: 

putting heat-reflecting particles in the stratosphere, changing the brightness of ocean clouds, 

and thinning high clouds. NAS says climate problem has worsened since they last evaluated it 

in 2015.30

9. “Solar-Powered System Extracts Drinkable Water from ‘Dry’ Air” 31: Researchers at MIT 

and elsewhere have significantly boosted the output from a system that can extract drinkable 

water directly from the air even in dry regions, using heat from the sun or another source.

10. “Blockchain Technology in Use to Reduce Public Procurement Process Corruption” 32: 

“SettleMint is exploring the use of blockchain technology to reduce corruption in the public 

procurement process. OECD estimates 10% to 30% of the investment in publicly funded 

construction projects may be lost to corruption. Blockchain technology would increase 

transparency in the process that should reduce the occurrence of corrupt acts.” 

11. “US Should Push NewSpace Treaty: Atlantic Council” 33: “The US should push hard to 

overhaul the entire international legal framework for outer space — including replacing the 

foundational 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), a new report from the Atlantic Council says. 

As it moves to do so, the US also should more aggressively court allies with an eye to 

establishing a ‘collective security alliance for space’ among likeminded countries to ‘deter 

aggression’ and defend ‘key resources and access.’”

12. Cooling upper atmosphere impacts LEO satellites: Long-term data on the mesosphere, the 

layer 30 to 50 miles above Earth’s surface, has revealed that it is cooling and contracting. 

27 Goswami, S. et al. “Charge disproportionate molecular redox for discrete memristive and memcapacitive switching.” Nature 

nanotechnology 15.5 (2020): 380-389. 28 “Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek and It Was an ‘Overwhelming Success’,” Forbes, June 5, 2021. 29 “Charting America’s Debt: $27 Trillion and Counting,” Visual Capitalist, October 30, 2020. 30 “Science panel: Consider air cooling tech as climate backup,” Los Angeles Times, March 25, 2021. 31 “Solar-Powered System Extracts Drinkable Water from ‘Dry’ Air,” MIT News, October 14, 2020. 32 “Blockchain Technology in Use to Reduce Public Procurement Process Corruption,” World Economic Forum, July 5, 2021. 33 “US Should Push NewSpace Treaty: Atlantic Council,” Breaking Defense, April 12, 2021. 
34

Scientists believe this is caused by the insulating effect of a thickening lower atmosphere, a 

trend that will increase with time.34

13. “India Tests Anti-Satellite Weapon” 35: “The Indian government announced on March 27 that

it successfully fired a ground-based anti-satellite (ASAT) weapon against a satellite in low 

Earth orbit (LEO), a test that is likely to heighten concerns about space security and orbital 

debris. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that the country’s military successfully 

demonstrated an ASAT weapon in a test known as “Mission Shakti.” In that test, a groundbased missile, a version of an existing ballistic missile interceptor, hit a satellite at an altitude 

of about 300 kilometers.” 

14. “Close Calls with Starlink Account for Roughly Half of All Incidents”: “The Astronautics 

Research Group at the University of Southampton, U.K. has found that Starlink satellites 

account for roughly 1,600 close encounters between resident space objects each week. A 

close encounter in this research is classified as two spacecraft passing within 1 km of each 

other. Many of these encounters are self-inflicted and lower to 500 per week when only 

considering encounters with non-Starlink spacecraft. As the constellation size increases, it is 

projected that up to 90% of all close encounters in LEO will stem from Starlink encounters. 

Current notification processes are not easily scalable due to their reliance on manual action, 

according to Kayhan Space CEO (which itself is developing a commercial autonomous space 

traffic management system).”

15. “Russia, China to Sign Agreement on International Lunar Research Station”36: Russian state 

space corporation Roscosmos carries on talks with China and other international partners on 

the creation of a joint Moon base, Roscosmos chief Dmitry Rogozin said on his Telegram 

channel. “We are holding talks with all international partners, first and foremost China, on 

establishing a Moon research base,” he wrote. Rogozin reminded that the Russian Moon 

research program is set to begin in 2021. “We plan to begin a piloted Moon program in 

2028,” he stressed. Earlier, China National Space Administration (CNSA) spokesman Xu 

Hongliang stated that China would continue researching the Moon and it plans to unite efforts 

with Russia to implement the corresponding projects.

4.3 Natural Language Processing of NASA-provided Futures Documents

Natural Language Processing (NLP) is a subfield of machine learning (ML) used to pull insights from 

strings of text, often articles, books, and other written correspondences. For this study, NLP was used to 

scan both NASA-provided future documentation and global futures documents. A full list of documents is 

provided in List of NLP Documents Scanned This analysis helped to identify emerging disruptors and 

identify gaps in current NASA futures documentation and planning. For instance, are current activities not 

broad enough to cover areas outside current mission sets? Are there limited numbers of authoritative 

documents considering the broader environment? By identifying topics in the NASA-provided documents 

versus those in the global futures documents, gaps and/or biases can be easily assessed. 

4.3.1 Data Ingest and Algorithms

For this study, NLP was used to process approximately 50 NASA-provided documents and 10 global 

futures and space futures (documents listed in List of NLP Documents Scanned). For each document, 

34 “NASA Satellites Find Upper Atmosphere Cooling and Contracting Due to Climate Change,” SciTechDaily, July 4, 2021. 35 “India Tests Anti-Satellite Weapon,” SpaceNews, March 27, 2019. 36 “Russia, China to Sign Agreement on International Lunar Research Station,” SpaceNews, 17 February 2021.
35

paragraphs were extracted with assistance of a computer vision-based document segmentation model. A 

count of the paragraphs extracted per document can be seen in Figure 7. Paragraphs were soft-normalized 

to remove noisy characters and encoded using a pretrained NLP transformer-based language model 

(DistilGPT2) to make them machine interpretable. From there, customized topic models were created to 

parse the documents at the paragraph level to discover topics and trends. Topic clusters were generated 

via a Gaussian Mixture Model clustering algorithm and optimized via a hyperparameter grid search. It is 

important to note that an unsupervised approach (no ground truth) was implemented and thus, subject 

matter expert validation was required in assessing topic model content and quality. To provide additional 

context, keyword phrases and abstractive summaries were generated for each topic cluster. PEGASUS, an 

open-source NLP model fine-tuned to generated short 2-3 sentence summaries, was used to generate topic 

summaries. 

Figure 7. Snippet showcasing some data source details and paragraph counts.

For automatic timeline generation, additional components were developed for the identification and 

extraction of temporal entities (i.e., term or term phrases signaling periods of time, explicit dates, or other 

temporal adjectives). An NLP model, fine-tuned on the identification of temporal entities, was used to 

identify, and track temporal entities present in paragraphs. Paragraphs were then segmented based on 

temporal entities and those with overlapping categories had abstractive summaries generated to synthesize 

key points and events. For this work, the paragraphs were filtered for temporal entities corresponding to 

date (could be as general as year) only and excluded all other temporal terms. 

Except for the use of Tableau (discussed below), all algorithms developed by Aerospace are based off 

open-source models fine-tuned to fit the data’s domain. The algorithms are reusable, meaning data can 

easily be added or removed as necessary. Additionally, the algorithms are extensible, meaning new 

methods can be incorporated to extract data/attributes of interest.
36

4.3.2 Data Visualization and Insights 

Identified topic clusters and temporal paragraphs were ingested into Tableau to generate various views to 

assist in visualization and insights. Tableau workbooks provide flexibly in sharing insights with futures 

analysts. Results from these Tableau visualizations can be seen in Figure 8 through Figure 11. 

Some key themes (across all documents) that can be seen in the figures are sustainability (primarily from 

NASA-provided documents), diversification of energy sources, green fuels, green development, climate, 

digital mobility and enablers, future workforce, telework, telehealth, telemanufacturing, AI/ML and 

robotics, and the global power competition. These are areas where rapid change is expected in the future 

and disruptors in these areas should be closely tracked. 

Figure 8. Sample output of selected topics (keywords shown) generated from available text.

The NASA documentation was particularly strong on many aviation themes. Some identified gaps, or 

rather new areas to be sure to track, within NASA’s direct portfolio, were Mars and beyond, new 

propulsion, and tangential but relevant industry developments (additive manufacturing, autonomation, 

AI/ML). Overall, the NASA documentation showed gaps in the broader context in which many future 

technologies are happening and important factors that could be critical to their success such as emerging 

commercial needs, business viability, ethics, and governance models. 
37

Figure 9. Example generated timeline. Timeline entries were generated using paragraphs with similar 

temporal entities—in this case year. Summaries were used to synthesize key themes. Frequency of topic 

is represented by the size of each circle on the timeline.

4.3.3 Limitations and Potential Next Steps

It is important to acknowledge some limitations of the NLP work presented here. Biases may be present 

in the results due to many factors, including data content (e.g., which documents are being ingested), 

writing style (e.g., one author many choose to refer to a specific year while others may lean towards more 

general terms), and extraction technique. This could lead to an increased prevalence of on certain topics 

(e.g., aviation). Below are ways to overcome some of these limitations. 

To further extend the value of this work, there could be several key next steps. First and foremost, more 

data could be provided to the algorithms. Insights and themes reflect available data, and thus there is a 

potential for bias based on input sources. Inclusion of additional global/space futures documents would 

increase fidelity in future iterations. Additionally, the model could be refined through further 

normalization of data. Noisy artifacts (e.g., references) remain present at times within topic samples. 

While this has no large impact on topic clustering, improvement in the results could be seen with further 

processing. Next, the model could incorporate additional temporal entities. Currently, the model focuses 

only on entities that have a specified date (year). There are many paragraphs referring generally to 

“future” events that were not incorporated into this analysis. Finally, the work could be further extended 

with the extraction of additional metadata (e.g., government or commercial organizations). Based on 

feedback from end users, additional attributes of interest could be folded into the analysis.

It is recommended that NASA implement continuous NLP scanning of both internal and external 

documentation to focus on broader global changes and to identify emerging disruptors to assess gaps in 

NASA planning.
38

Figure 10. Example of topic cluster generated at the paragraph level. Each paragraph corresponds 

to a shape on the plot. Paragraphs belonging to the same topic family are color-coded accordingly.

Figure 11. Graphic shows topic contribution by source directory. For example, NASA data comprises 

98% of the content in the “green development” topic cluster. That is, NASA documentation is 

more focused on this area in contrast to other ingested documentation. 
39

4.4 Inputs from International Space University (ISU)

The inputs from the roundtables and interviews were overwhelmingly US-centric in nature due to 

perspectives of the participants providing inputs. It was important for our analysts to obtain an 

international perspective to ensure there are no large gaps in the data. Due to limitations on the study, we 

were not able to hold a roundtable with international participants. An Aerospace team member was able 

to attend the International Space University (ISU) hosted in Oeiras/Lisbon, Portugal (30 July 2022). The 

overriding theme from ISU was the globalization of space. Notes from the event indicated that our 

international colleagues view NASA’s future as being intertwined with the future global space scene, 

even more so than it is today. While the notes from ISU are inclusive of all international perspectives, 

there was an indication that the Europeans may have a more extreme perspective in the commercial 

versus state-government role in space. Representatives indicated that the ISS could be commercialized 

and that there could be a major shift from government-driven space missions to private-driven. The goal 

of the government (generic government, not just US) is being viewed as a shift from the prime mover in 

space to a “catalyst”, which is consistent with our findings from the roundtable participants North Star 

activity. 

Key trends/disruptors that international participants discussed throughout the ISU event (not a structured 

foresighting activity) were (all direct quotes/comments):

• “Commercialization of the ISS”

• “Need for space situational awareness”

• “Shift from govt-driven to private-driven space missions. The goal of government has shifted 

from prime mover to catalyst.”

• “Commercial access is a two-edged sword: will people want to access ISS to do science via 

commercial launch, or just do science on an Axios mission?”

• “Surprised by public perception of commercial space; people think ‘it’s just rich people hanging 

out.’ Companies are trying hard to be productive in space to change that perception. Blue Origin 

just announced first Portuguese astronaut in July”

• “Should operate from a perspective of abundance not scarcity, but at the same time the water in 

lunar regolith is not an unlimited resource”

• “What is the role of the private sector in creating societal resilience? E.g., is commercial 

GEOINT obligated to report suspected human rights violations they observe? When and to 

whom?”

• “The challenge is what is the role of the state? Until COVID, we embraced a metropolitan view 

(individualistic?) but then we went to the state for salvation from COVID. Suggestion: follow 

new trends of religiosity (i.e., in what ways are otherwise non-religious people behaving 

religiously)”

• “There have been some 1700 space startups in the last 10 years, mostly in the US, many in China, 

not so many in Europe; total of $260B in entrepreneurship”

• “In the last five years there have been 20 new space agencies/institutions especially in 

Africa. Similar story in Middle East, and a bit in Latin America”
40

• “Nobody attracts youth to STEM like the space sector does”

• “Most everyday people are not yet “evangelized” to the value of space”

• “Cislunar infrastructure will be key”

The participants also discussed what they wished for space by 2030:

• “Sustainable access to space open to all 195 countries”

• “Space to be inclusive for all classes, all countries”

• “Responsible use of debris environment, find solutions to debris problem”

• “The planet to be a better place because of the investments we make in space, and I can afford a 

trip to space”

• “Starship will change the world. You can ship a whole tractor to the moon and start building 

roads immediately rather than assembling things piecemeal.”

• “Need to stop talking about CubeSats; that’s old news. Talk about hotels, tractors/Caterpillars.”

The foresighting team completed a holistic review of all trends and disruptors across all sources of input.

Many roundtable trends and disruptors appeared in multiple categories, either directly or thematically, 

indicating the outsized leverage they may wield on the evolution of the future operating environment.

Furthermore, trends binned themselves into several themes from the horizon scanning and NLP activities. 

The team considered the signals’ potential impact to NASA and whether there was a clear direction to the 

trend or not and eliminated signals with lower future impact. This process led to a final set of critical 

uncertainties that are likely to have a dominating impact on the future environment which were fed into

the Threadable CONOPS. 
41

5. Potential North Stars for NASA

One important element of organizational effectiveness is alignment on collective, understood, and 

believed vision and mission statements. NASA’s current vision statement is “exploring the secrets of the 

universe for the benefit of all,” and its current mission statement is “NASA explores the unknown in air 

and space, innovates for the benefit of humanity, and inspires the world through discovery.” This study 

explored the enterprise-wide alignment on this vision and mission and whether NASA’s staff believed 

this vision and mission should change in the future. 

Feedback from the roundtables and interviews revealed that there was no enterprise-wide consensus on 

today’s vision and mission statements. Roughly half of the internal participants felt that the vision and 

mission might be different in the future. The other half thought that NASA’s current vision and mission 

were enduring but that change could occur in exactly what NASA does in pursuit of that vision. This 

bifurcation of perspectives on the future “why” for NASA could be problematic in achieving crossorganizational alignment and weathering any disruption that may occur. In this section, we detail a range 

of possible “whys” for NASA and aspirational future states the Agency could pursue.

5.1 The Future Why for NASA

This study explored the future “Why for NASA?” by posing the question “what is NASA’s why and does 

it change in the next 20-plus years?” to the NASA executives. The study does not attempt to drive 

towards alignment on a single “why” and instead highlights the (lack of) alignment on this question and 

presents potential options for leadership to consider during strategic planning. Answers for NASA’s 

purpose and mission today included (ungrouped and unedited from participant responses, except for 

typos): 

• “To advance humanity’s understanding of our universe including our home planet” 

• “To put people/things in space for varied reasons, successfully”

• “Explore, Discover, Understand the way humans interact with our Universe” 

• “Inspire current and future generations to take on exploration and to prepare for a future in space” 

• “Explore and innovate in a way that is relevant and meaningful to humankind” 

• “Do what has never been done before” 

• “Learn about our surroundings to better understand ourselves”

• “NASA explores and expands our knowledge of the universe or the benefit of all humanity” 

• “Inspire through space exploration help protect Earth” 

• “Exploration and leading the way; inspiration for all; taking on risk to discover” 

• “Explore, Challenge and Make a Difference” 

• “Solve the hardest challenges of space exploration and science” 

• “Inspire stakeholders with technology, science, and consequential contributions” 

• “Advance human knowledge while seeding and inspiring future aerospace opportunities”

• “Push the boundaries of science and engineering with space exploration”

• “Explore new worlds and answer questions critical to our future”

• “To give America a view into space to better understand humanity’s place, purpose, and 

perspective”

• “To explore Earth and Universe, seek out new frontiers, & understand the unknown”

• “Explore the world, solar system, & universe around us to benefit humanity”

• “Inspire scientific learning & exploration”

• “Unlock future exploration; pursue discoveries (known & unknown); inspire individual 

responsibility for global challenges; change the possible”
42

• “To understand our origins and explore and discover our future”

• “To explore, invent, and push boundaries for the betterment of mankind”

• “Make space safe, affordable, and profitable”

• “Explore the universe(s) for the prosperity and protection of humankind”

• “Catalyzing discovery for the good of humanity”

There are common elements across the various statements, such as “explore,” “humanity,” and 

“discovery,” but their messages are far from uniform. The statements vary in both who the ultimate

beneficiary of NASA may be and the specificity of those beneficiaries. Many participants believed that 

NASA is now at a fundamental transition point with the rapidly changing environment (particularly with 

the rise of commercial space). Some went as far as to say NASA was having an identity crisis. Many

participants felt that there had been pressure for NASA to turn into a more applied agency rather than a 

“mission-focused” agency and that pressure was driving the lack of a clear mission statement. 

A clear consensus did emerge that “this is our chance to define where NASA will lead into the future, 

while others in industry may continue some of the other work.” Others spoke about the importance of

ensuring that NASA remains dedicated to the next generation, regardless of the mission. Some spoke 

about the constrained resources and budget that NASA operates with and that may limit it from driving 

towards its mission.

When discussing whether the NASA mission statement would or should change in the next twenty years, 

roughly half of all participants believed that it would not change. Most of these participants recognized 

that even if the “why” does not change, the “how” would. For example, as commercial industry becomes 

more capable, NASA could leverage the commercial sector and shift towards new destinations, or NASA 

could shift towards catalyzing commercial to do the impossible and seeding inspiration. 

Others believed the fundamental “why” did change. A tangible shift to a more applied agency or a change 

in focus to enabling life outside our home planet (as opposed to thinking about Earth) were two notable

themes. Additionally, some believed regarding human spaceflight that in twenty years, “[NASA would] 

focus less on how do we get there and more what do we do when we get there.” For those that believed 

that the “why” will change in 20 years, their candidate new mission statements included: 

• “Architecting the future paths and systems to explore the unknown”

• “Maintain sustainable direction and budget to fully realize the 2022 statement.” 

• “Doing hard things involving space to learn and explore” 

• “R&D for commercial space activities” 

• “Continue to do what has never been done before” 

• “Inspire through space exploration help protect earth + more implementation” 

• “Explore, Challenge, Innovate, Make an Impact” 

• “Similar, but changed focus on technology development emphasis” 

• “To enable Americans to go/experience space while continuing to push technical boundaries and 

observations”

• “To explore the Earth & Universe & push new frontiers to benefit all humankind” 

• “Extend life into the solar system; answer are we alone?; improve life on planet”

Based on these results, a substantial challenge for NASA during its strategy formulation will be to work 

towards organizational alignment on the current vision and mission statements and any potential changes 

in the future. Failure to achieve alignment could result in an inability to execute on any strategy 

formulated.
43

5.2 Aspirational Future States of NASA

Figure 12. Aspirational future states for NASA from executive interviews. 

In addition to exploring the “why” for NASA, this study explored aspirational future states and North 

Stars for NASA. When developing strategic options, it is essential to consider the question, “what is this 

strategy attempting to drive towards?” The mission and vision statement help answer this, and 

envisioning potential aspirational future states helps contextualize and actualize the vision and mission.

Some of the aspirational future states expressed in NASA executive interviews appear in Figure 12. 

Language from the NASA executive roundtables were collected as candidate North Star words in a word 

cloud in Figure 13, where the size of each word in the diagram corresponds to the frequency of its use in 

conversation and in exercises. Although they are merely an alternative depiction of a linguistic histogram, 

word clouds can help reveal at a glance any unexpectedly dominant sentiments from a large corpus. In the 

case of Figure 13, two unexpected words do stand out for their frequency: “catalyze,” which was usually 

expressed in connection with commercial industry, and “diverse,” which was raised frequently in the 

context of the NASA workforce and talent retention. The appearance of the former in particular 

influenced the formulation of an additional strategic option (“Catalyze access for all”) in Section 6.4, 

complementing the strategic options that have heritage in the most common and expected North Star 

words in Figure 13. 

In the next section, we focus on the development of the divergent future scenarios. It is important to 

contextualize these scenarios considering NASA’s potential future state and mission. Additionally, each 

scenario must be analyzed against whether achieving the mission and vision is possible and whether each 

scenario might lead to a change in this statement. Thinking through the scenarios in this context helps 

organizations build strategic resilience in driving towards their vision.
44

Figure 13. Candidate North Stars derived from NASA executive roundtables 

(size correlated with number of instances of a word). 
45

6. Divergent Future Scenarios and Analysis

6.1 Archetypes of the Four Futures Model

To develop scenarios that could generate actionable insights for shaping future decision-making, this 

project leveraged the Four Futures model, which uses four archetypes of future storylines: growth, 

decline, discipline, and transformation. Figure 14 provides a visual illustration of these four archetypes, 

complemented by a baseline scenario that corresponds to the current environment. After a baseline of

trends and disruptors has been established by reviewing the present, the four futures provide corner cases 

across which possible investments, technologies, and decisions can be evaluated. This approach allows 

for determining how decisions could play out across different sets of assumptions. The Four Futures 

model challenges the analyst to rethink assumptions, consider multiple possibilities for the future, and 

make better decisions today. As noted in the methodology of Section 2, the goal of this activity is not to 

predict the future but to explore corner cases of the future and build strategic resiliency. 

Figure 14. Archetype definitions of future corner cases, as defined by the Four Futures Model. 

No future scenario is inherently good or bad. Each offers a set of opportunities and challenges. The 

collective set of scenarios guides insight into which strategies may be more resilient or effective in 

achieving preferred futures than others, even under inherent uncertainty. A decision-maker can connect 

these 20-50-year futures to present-day action planning by triaging his or her decisions in the present to

seed desired outcomes illuminated in the scenarios. 

One approach for understanding the future is in terms of waves of transformation (like design 

thinking)37,38. When discussing the future of the aerospace industry and community, we can characterize

the current trajectory in terms of three waves. The first wave is the “exploration epoch,” where space 

activity primarily occurs out to GEO (with some interplanetary crafts) including scientific missions, 

human space flight primarily involves temporary visits (like the ISS), there exists some sustained 

commercial activity (both human and non-human) ... Following this wave, society moves into the 

“commercial epoch,” where activity (human and non-human) expands to cislunar and lunar surface, 

humans become space steading, and commercial activity (human and non-human) occurs independent of 

government funding. Finally, society moves to the “settlement epoch,” where the scientific missions grow 

in complexity and human exploration activity expands to Mars and beyond, interplanetary societies exist, 

and Earth has now become dependent on off-planet commercial activities (human and non-human). 

37 Jeanne Liedtka, “Why Design Thinking Works,” October 2018, Harvard Business Review, https://hbr.org/2018/09/whydesign-thinking-works 

38 Kara C. Cunzeman and Paul C. Frakes, “Surfing Disruption: A Primer in Strategic Foresight,” The Aerospace Corporation, 

May 2020. [Limited Release to USG]
46

Society is currently in the first wave of the transformation described above. In this work, the future 

scenarios primarily explore the transition from the first wave to the second, with some excursions to the 

third wave. These excursions are valuable because they capture events that could significantly influence 

NASA’s choices in the present. For example, during the development of the first automobile, the Ford 

Model T, most of society did not consider the possibility of personally owning a car. The development of 

this seminal automobile can be considered an excursion beyond the next transition. By not exploring

potential transformations, organizations are at risk of being consumed by the transition and miss 

opportunities for growth or realizing their missions. When these transitions between waves will occur is 

unknown – it could be in 10 years, or in 50 and the exact timing of these transitions will likely be 

determined by the future developments of the key uncertainties identified in this work. 

6.2 Threadable CONOPS

The process of developing four corner-case futures begins with the identification of key uncertainties that 

could influence NASA’s global operating environment. Although many factors will influence the future 

environment and appear in the scenarios, a review of the trends and disruptors from the roundtables 

combined with foresighting expert analysis identifies the driving uncertainties that are likely to play an 

outsized role in shaping the future operating environment. Section 4 details the process of identifying 

these over-arching uncertainties. 

Each uncertainty may have multiple future states. A feature of scenario development is the exploration of 

these multiple possible future states across the scenarios. By detailing the range of possibilities for each 

uncertainty (e.g., future conflicts ranging from “none” to “regional” to “global”), foresight can aid in a 

qualitative assessment of the future environment’s corner cases, which are likely to put the greatest strain 

on the resilience of an organizational strategy. After the critical uncertainties have been identified, the 

foresighting team documents a range of possible future states for each uncertainty. The uncertainties are 

collected in a table, called a Threadable CONOPS,

39 each with their possible states. Figure 15 shows the 

Threadable CONOPS developed for this project, using six inputs that provide broad coverage of potential 

future states. Each input is variable, which means it has multiple possible states, many of which emerged

from roundtable inputs. 

Figure 15. The Threadable CONOPS used for this project, detailing critical uncertainties for NASA futures. 

39 The Aerospace Corporation Foresight Team adapted from L. Vandergriff, “Threadable CONOPS Overview—MBSE Scenario 

Development,” The Aerospace Corporation, El Segundo, 2020. 
47

A complete description of each variable input to the Threadable CONOPs and its possible states follows:

1. Commercial Space Viability / Sustainability: the economic health and independence of the 

commercial space sector.

a. Not viable – the commercial space industry, and particularly the NewSpace industry, fails 

to achieve closure on its business models.

b. Limited, commercial / government partnerships – the commercial space industry depends 

on the government to serve as an anchor tenant to maintain viability as a going concern.

c. Commercial operates independently (near-Earth) – commercial space succeeds as a 

profitable industry independent of the government in near-Earth space (i.e., inside the 

Earth-Moon system). 

d. Commercial operates independently (interplanetary) – commercial space success as an 

independent profitable industry beyond the Earth-Moon system to other planets in the 

Solar System and possibly beyond. 

2. Earth Environmental Stability: the general state of the Earth’s climate, relative to the “crisis” 

status quo of 2020.

a. Uninhabitable – the Earth becomes unfit for human habitation.

b. Crisis – the Earth persists at the precipice of environmental collapse, with frequent 

destructive weather events and their associated impacts on agriculture and human 

migration.

c. Stable – the Earth’s climate stabilizes to a “normal” level of activity and volatility.

d. Healing – the Earth’s climate begins to reverse the negative effects of recent climate 

change.

3. Domestic Politics’ Influence on NASA: the influence of the yearly budget request, 

congressional appropriation process, and administration changes on NASA priorities and 

missions.

a. No political interest in space – politicians have no desire to continue using public 

resources on space exploration.

b. Full priorities flip from administration to administration – at every quadrennial change in 

administration, all of NASA’s priorities are changed, preventing most or any long-term 

investments to bear fruit.

c. Some priorities flip, others persist – each flip in administration brings some changes to 

NASA’s priorities, but others remain untouched across administrations.

d. Cross-administration / enduring priorities – NASA’s priorities persist from 

administration to administration.
48

4. Human Presence in Space: the status of human presence off-world and whether there is 

intentional to return to Earth for these populations or not.

a. No humans in space – Neither nation states nor commercial industry maintain any human 

presence in space.

b. Occasional short-term visits to space – Humans go to space on a short-term basis on an 

individual basis (e.g., the ISS can be consistently populated but with rotating personnel), 

limited mostly to near-Earth space

c. Space steading – NASA and commercial industry maintain a constant and robust human 

presence in space, including long-term habitation by a single individual in space stations 

and outposts on the Moon. However, there remains an intent for any long-term resident in 

space to return to Earth at some point.

d. Interplanetary societies – Long-term human developments on the Moon and Mars have 

evolved into their own societies and governments independent of their originating nations 

on Earth.

5. Geopolitical stability: the general geopolitical balance of power around the world and the nature 

of associated competition and conflict.

a. Conflict / turbulence – armed conflicts vary among none, domestic, regional, global, and 

off-world. 

b. Competition – geopolitical competition among nations varies among monopoly

(unipolar), bifurcation (bipolar), multipolar, and distributed (i.e., no clear dominant 

powers).

c. Cooperation – the level of cooperation among nations varies among with allies only, with 

adversaries (i.e., alliances of convenience), ever-changing (i.e., moving in and out of 

different alliance blocs), and free-flowing (i.e., universal cooperation without blocs).

6. Capability Gamechangers for NASA: technology breakthroughs that could fundamentally 

change NASA’s capabilities or mission profile.

a. Hypersonics – technology is available as R&D only, for government / military use only, 

or has scaled to widespread commercial use. 

b. AI systems – AI exists for narrow applications (e.g., image recognition), in general use 

(e.g., managing city infrastructure), and as super-AI (i.e., capable of creative thought and 

creating new AI itself).

c. Interplanetary transportation – travel between the moons and planets of the Solar System 

occur via traditional means (i.e., months- or years-long times of flight via chemical or 

electrical propulsion), transformative means (i.e., up to interstellar-relevant speeds40), or 

revolutionary means. 

40 Such as those proposed in Project Orion (theorized up to 11% speed of light) or Project Daedalus (theorized up to 12% speed 

of light)
49

d. Green flight – Earth-bound aviation develops environmentally friendly fuels and 

propulsion technologies ranging among minor incremental improvements, zero emission, 

or actively beneficial to the environment.

e. Metaverse – the adoption of the metaverse varies among sparing use, recreational use, 

and fully integrated into day-to-day life. 

f. Clean energy – new clean-energy technologies available for global use include widely 

scaled renewables (e.g., wind and ground-based solar), fusion power, or space-based 

solar. 

g. Synthetic biology – advances in bioengineering vary among the following: substitution

(e.g., organ transplants from animals to humans), restoration (i.e., advanced healing of 

damaged organs), regenerative (i.e., growing new organs de novo), or augmentation (i.e., 

development of organic or artificial implants to enhance human resilience or 

performance).

For the development of scenarios in the Four Futures model, the foresighting team created four 

Threadable CONOPS with a varying selection of the input states. These selections are designed to (1) 

align with the model’s four archetypes (growth, discipline, decline, and transform) and (2) cover as much 

space as possible with diverse combinations of possible future states. 

6.3 Scenarios Overview

This section reviews the four corner-case scenarios and the complementary “baseline” scenario, which

captures a projection of the current environment. The purpose of this scenario development is not to 

predict the future, nor is it fruitful to assign probabilities or qualitative assessments of likelihood to 

different possible futures. Instead, scenarios explore corner cases of the future space, where 

organizational strategies are most greatly stressed. Consequently, the four scenarios are intentionally 

thought-provoking and sometimes provocative. But they are within the realm of the (future) possible. 

Incorporating these scenarios into strategy formulation helps ensure organizational resilience to a volatile 

and uncertain future.

Scenarios developed with the Four Futures Model take the form of narratives that conform to four 

archetypal themes: growth (where the future develops along trends similar to the present), discipline 

(where behaviors must adapt to growing internal or environmental limits), decline (the system degrades or 

fails as crises emerge), and transformation (new technology, business, or social factors “change the 

game”) as shown in Figure 16. The scenarios culminate with a series of key focus questions prompted by 

the narrative. These focus questions provide NASA with a starting point for vision-setting and goal 

prioritization in the strategy-development process. 

When reviewing these scenarios, the reader should resist the temptation to judge them on their likelihood. 

None of these scenarios in full will happen in the real world. Some parts of all of them are likely to occur 

in the coming decades, but we cannot know which parts. Consequently, the exact particulars of the 

scenarios are not as important as the key focus questions that emerge from them. These questions help 

synthesize the bottom-line implications of the scenario to NASA’s future strategic direction.

Progression through the future is driven more by where in “waves of transformation” (discussed in 

Section 1) the future is and less by set years or time passage. References to specific years in the scenarios 

are there to anchor the reader. These scenarios explore the transition from the “exploration epoch” to the 

“commercial epoch” with brief discussions of the “settlement epoch.” 
50

Figure 16. Graphical depiction of Four Futures scenarios developed. 

6.3.1 Baseline

Due to the complexity of the trade space, a separate baseline (the projected future state given current 

trends and trajectories) is included. The Threadable CONOPS for this baseline appears in Figure 17, 

where the selected future states are highlighted in green. For the baseline scenario, the following states are 

expected during the transition from the first to the second wave of transformation: 

• Commercial viability: Commercial space companies will be economically viable and operate 

independently of the government market for near-Earth (in-orbit and lunar) applications. 

• Earth environmental stability: The climate will continue in “crisis” relative to the status quo of 

2020. 

• Domestic politics influence on NASA: Like today, NASA will continue to see some priorities 

changing (leading to program stop/starts) from administration to administration with others 

enduring across administrations. 

• Sustained human presence: Occasional short-term visits and continued sustained orbital (e.g., 

like ISS or even lunar orbit) are expected; however, there is no expectation of off-world 

societies/routine long-term travel outside of the Earth-moon system. 

• Geopolitical stability: Continued regional conflict is expected to continue through the 

“settlement epoch” with competition happening on a multipolar basis. This leads to the possibility 

that a “new global power” outside of current powers may emerge with space expected to be an 

important consideration for nation-states. Finally, cooperation is expected to only exist among 

allies, similar to the current state, with the potential for even more pullback from non-ally 

cooperation. 
51

• Capability gamechangers for NASA: Hypersonics, AI systems, interplanetary transportation, 

green flight, and the metaverse are expected to continue having gradual improvements with no 

large increase in capabilities outside of current efforts. However, it is expected that clean energy 

will continue to have substantial investment and renewable options (including, but not limited to, 

wind and solar) will have been scaled to provide a substantial fraction of the necessary worldwide 

energy. Additionally, large improvements in synthetic biology leading to routine “substitution” 

and “restorative” techniques are expected.

Figure 17. Baseline Threadable CONOPS. 

The Baseline scenario does not include a full narrative. Rather, the Baseline Threadable CONOPS in 

Figure 17 provides a reference point for the corner cases in the subsequent sections.

6.3.2 Growth

A growth scenario assumes business as usual and continued development of the environment in the vein 

of the status quo. The growth scenario Threadable CONOPS for this project appears in Figure 18. For our

growth scenario, the following input states were selected: 

• Commercial viability: Commercial space companies will be economically viable and operate 

independently of the government market for near-Earth (in-orbit and lunar) applications. 

• Earth environmental stability: The climate will continue in “crisis” relative to the status quo of 

2020. 

• Domestic politics influence on NASA: Like today, NASA will continue to see some priorities 

changing (leading to program stop/starts) from administration to administration with others 

enduring across administrations. 

• Sustained human presence: Humans will have become a space-steading species with routine 

long-duration off-world and interplanetary trips; however, the intention for these humans to 

return to Earth remains. 

• Geopolitical stability: A potential growth scenario involves the development of a global conflict 

with bifurcated and multipolar competition. Additionally, like the baseline, only cooperation with 

allies continues. 
52

• Capability gamechangers for NASA: In the growth scenario, narrow AI systems, zero emission 

aviation/flight, space-based solar power, and substitutive/restorative synthetic biology are the 

driving capability gamechangers for NASA.

Figure 18. Growth Threadable CONOPS. 

The combination of these future states led to a growth scenario titled “Commercial Space in the 

Driver’s Seat” with a tagline of “Bringing space into our economic realm.” The foresighting team first 

developed key themes for the growth scenario based on the Threadable CONOPS selections:

• The private sector has commoditized human spaceflight between Earth and the moon

• There has been an industrialization of LEO: pharmaceuticals, organs, fiber optics, and food are all 

economic markets that exist

• There is limited commercial interest in exploration as profitable ventures closer to Earth snag 

attention

• NASA has divested much of its infrastructure from previous decades and is left at disadvantage

• Global mobility on Earth is on the rise thanks to scaling of suborbital flights

• There are intermittent global conflicts that extend to space, and sovereignty remains untested

Using these themes, the growth scenario’s narrative follows:

Spurred by immense capital investment and resilience to loss-of-life setbacks that would have 

crippled purely government ventures, the private sector successfully commoditized human 

spaceflight in the Earth-moon system by the “commercial epoch”. The first boots on Mars also 

came from the private sector, but there was little commercial appetite to return without a 

substantial reduction in travel time. Commercial interest in pure exploration—even as a 

government contractor—dwindled in favor of profitable ventures closer to Earth. These new 

circumstances left NASA at a substantial disadvantage, having divested much of its exploration 

infrastructure to industry in the preceding decades.
53

Commercial space focused primarily on the industrialization of LEO, aided by additive 

manufacturing of both full satellites and organic materials, and leveraged breakthroughs that 

made it economically viable to manufacture many goods in LEO. Manufacturing of 

pharmaceuticals, artificial organs, fiber optics, and some food production moved to LEO. Onorbit assembly, servicing, and refueling enabled new paradigms of architecting and sustaining 

large-scale infrastructure on orbit, while advances in AI and autonomy led to its increasing role 

in day-to-day maintenance of on-orbit facilities. The greatest limit to future expansion, still 

unsolved several decades in the future, is the existential risk of space debris and on-orbit 

collisions. 

The scaling of suborbital and orbital flight paved the way for routine anywhere-to-anywhere 

travel at incredible speed, such as Delta Air Lines’ inaugural Atlanta-to-Perth route in 2041 with 

a flight time of 90 minutes. Suborbital flights also led to an increase in global mobility overall, 

exploding the tourism industry. Smaller countries that historically relied on tourism flourished 

into the 2060s and expanded to space tourism as a new market to expand their GDPs, giving rise 

to new national space programs and additional launch sites. However, this rapid rise in nationstate space acts also triggered an expansion of the Wolf Amendment, and space became 

increasingly balkanized between countries aligned with China and those with the United States.

Into the 2050s, much of the global population had been impacted by disruptive climate events and 

socio-political turmoil, which triggered intermittent global conflicts. With so much national 

infrastructure moved into orbit, the expansion of these conflicts to space was inevitable. 

Manufacturing, space-based solar power, communications, and remote sensing satellites became 

regular targets, and a strike on a space hotel in 2047 led to the first human fatalities in space 

conflict. To protect commercial interests and their citizens both in orbit and on the Moon, China 

and the United States—and their respective aligned blocks—withdrew from the Outer Space 

Treaty in 2055. Several decades in the future, many orbital and lunar settlements are considered 

sovereign territory of their originating nation, but no one has yet been willing to test the integrity 

of that sovereignty.

From a strategic resiliency perspective, this scenario gives rise to the following key questions for NASA

to consider more broadly:

• What would NASA do if commercial industry was almost fully leading commoditized 

exploration and setting priorities for exploration? 

• What should NASA’s role be in a world where space war, including human casualties, is 

normalized? 

• Should NASA take on a bigger role in ensuring flight safety?

6.3.3 Discipline

A discipline scenario requires behaviors to adapt to growing internal or environmental limits. This 

project’s discipline scenario Threadable CONOPS is in Figure 19. For the discipline scenario, the 

following inputs were selected: 

• Commercial viability: There has been a commercial space bubble with no economically viable 

markets and the main customer for all remaining private space companies is the government. 
54

• Earth environmental stability: The climate will continue in “crisis” relative to the status quo of 

2020. 

• Domestic politics influence on NASA: There has been a shift in domestic politics influence with 

NASA having cross-administration continuity and enduring priorities across the board. 

• Sustained human presence: There will be no long-term or short-term visits to space. 

• Geopolitical stability: In the discipline scenario, there will be both domestic and regional 

conflicts with continuing multipolar competition. 

• Capability gamechangers for NASA: In the discipline scenario, narrow AI systems, traditional 

means of interplanetary transportation, regenerative green flight, and a fully integrated metaverse 

are the driving capability gamechangers for NASA. 

Figure 19. Discipline Threadable CONOPS. 

The combination of these factors led to a discipline scenario titled “Retreat from the Final Frontier” 

with a tagline of “An impoverished and immobile population escapes into the metaverse.” The key 

themes developed for the discipline scenario were:

• The private sector has failed to establish commercial viability amidst global depression

• A push for greener fuels gives rise to slower but more eco-friendly air and space transportation

capabilities

• The metaverse becomes fully integrated into society, reducing desire for physical exploration of 

space, but it also offers the opportunity to scale experience to the masses

• Advanced connectivity allows for new opportunities for citizen science 

• Telemedicine is delivered through the metaverse 
55

Using these themes, the growth scenario’s narrative follows:

A continuing global depression that began in 2023 continues through late 2027. Partially due to 

this recession, the private sector fails to establish a commercially viable market for any space 

application beyond those that existed in the late 20th century. Venture capital pulls its money out 

of the space industry, triggering a substantial setback for the government, which had become 

reliant on commercial providers for launch and had to speedily reintegrate these capabilities into 

its own portfolio. 

Acting on continued concern about the climate, the U.S. government sets the ambitious goal of 

transitioning out the use of all traditional jet and rocket fuels by 2035. This prioritization of 

emission control over travel speed shifts air travel time from New York to London to 40 hours 

using lighter-than-air aircraft, and space travel time from Earth to the moon balloons to one year 

via the mandated use of clean propellants with electric propulsion. Only one or two astronauts 

can travel per year to maintain lunar assets, while autonomous systems maintain most space 

assets. 

On Earth, the scaling of the metaverse accelerated the reduction in air travel. This immersive 

virtual environment became fully integrated into society, reducing the need and desire for human 

spaceflight. The workforce retreats completely into a virtual world, and human connections 

driven by virtual interaction is the accepted norm. Through the metaverse, children can attend 

Space Camp on the moon and support experiments there without leaving the couch. This gives 

rise to a new branch of citizen science with new visualization techniques, engaging very large 

audiences in science. Breakthroughs in telemedicine delivery through the metaverse only enhance 

the retreat from the physical world.

From a strategic resiliency perspective, this discipline scenario gives rise to the following key questions 

for NASA to consider more broadly:

• How should NASA move forward if there’s no commercial sector to leverage?

• How should NASA approach exploration when there’s little interest/need for human 

spaceflight? 

6.3.4 Decline

In a decline scenario, the system degrades or fails as a crisis emerges. The decline scenario’s Threadable 

CONOPS for this project is in Figure 20. For the decline scenario, the following inputs were selected: 

• Commercial viability: Commercial space companies will be economically viable and operate 

independently of the government market for both near-Earth (in-orbit and lunar) and 

interplanetary applications. 

• Earth environmental stability: The climate will have stabilized such that the climate crisis is no 

longer worsening; however, other factors will make Earth uninhabitable. 

• Domestic politics influence on NASA: NASA is working in a domestic political environment 

where priorities for the Agency are shifting completely from administration to administration. 

• Sustained human presence: Society will be space steading with routine long-duration travel off 

Earth. Due to the decline of Earth’s habitability, society will also quickly become interplanetary. 
56

• Geopolitical stability: Conflict has moved to off-world society with competition distributed 

between many nation-states.

• Capability gamechangers for NASA: In the decline scenario, scaled commercial hypersonics, 

general AI systems, a fully integrated metaverse, and access to abundant clean energy are the 

driving capability gamechangers for NASA.

Figure 20. Decline Threadable CONOPS. 

These factors led to a decline scenario titled “Blamed for the Big One” with a tagline of “NASA loses 

public trust.” The key themes for the decline scenario were:

• NASA detects an asteroid that will impact Earth but believes the asteroid is not large enough to 

cause a disaster. 

• New analysis shows the asteroid is larger than expected and hits close to the west coast, causing 

widespread devastation.

• NASA is immediately blamed for being wrong about the impact, not taking any action to deflect 

the asteroid, and actively encouraging the public not to worry.

• Congress funds a private consortium to establish and lead space settlements on Mars and orbiting 

platforms to “hedge our bets” against all humans living vulnerably on Earth. 

• Public trust in science plummets, and STEM programs see a major reduction in enrollment. 

• The commercial sector puts 10,000 people on Mars by 2055. 

• Far in the future, conflict breaks out between people on Earth and orbiting waystations and the 

base on Mars. 

Using these themes, the scenario narrative follows:

In the mid-2030s, NASA detects an asteroid that it believes will impact Earth in about five years. 

Based on analysis, NASA believes that it will hit the middle of the Pacific, and that the asteroid is 

not large enough to cause a tsunami or a substantial impact to civilization. NASA decides to not 
57

take any measures to attempt to deflect the asteroid based on this analysis and communicates 

aggressively with the public that there is no need for worry or action. In late 2041, about one 

month prior to impact, new analysis shows the asteroid is larger than originally estimated and 

will hit closer to the west coast than expected. The 1 km asteroid impacted the Pacific Ocean 

between the continental United States and Hawaii, triggering a catastrophic tsunami. NASA was 

immediately blamed for being wrong about the impact, not taking any action to deflect the 

asteroid, and actively encouraging the public not to worry. In response, Congress began to apply 

oppressive oversight on all NASA activities.

Fear of another surprise impact drove nations with space-faring capabilities to consider 

relocating parts of their population off-world. The U.S. Congress, frustrated by NASA’s 

stagnation and focused on getting humans off the planet as quickly as possible, raided most of 

NASA’s budget and stood up a private consortium to fund and establish new space settlements 

both on Mars and in orbiting platforms.

The continuing rise in lack of public trust of science reduced the overall enrollment and 

graduation rate in STEM education. Coupled with an unattractive government employer, the 

market was starved for talent. The private sector had to scale immensely to establish humanity 

off-world and found means to leverage talent in nontraditional ways, such as apprenticeships and 

rapid-certification programs. Space was no longer just for a workforce comprised of people with 

formal STEM degrees.

Building upon the successful proof-of-concept settlement on Mars about a decade after the 

impact, the commercial sector successfully transplanted 10,000 people there within a few years. 

The full integration of MarsNet, a digital data highway infrastructure connecting Earth and 

Mars, enabled those settlers to maintain their Earth-based jobs for the first three years. Slowly, 

the Mars settlers began to focus inwards on their community as they demonstrated selfsustainability. A key enabler of that sustainability was human-machine teaming supported by 

general AI. By the late 2050s, people had become desperate to get off Earth; however, the Mars 

settlement had not yet scaled to accommodate that large a population. Tensions rose as hundreds 

of thousands of settlers waited in orbiters around the moon, but the Mars colony denied landing 

rights. A war broke out with people still on Earth (mainly those without resources to leave) sided 

with those in orbiters, attacking the base on Mars. 

Finally, from a strategic resiliency perspective, this scenario gives rise to the following key questions for 

the Agency to consider more broadly:

• What are areas that NASA has full responsibility for and that threatens its brand and 

public trust? 

• Whose role is it to govern off-world settlements and secure property rights when 

commercial is leading the effort? 

6.3.5 Transform

In the transform scenario, new technology, business, or social factors fundamentally “change the game.” 

This project’s transform scenario Threadable CONOPS is in Figure 21. For the decline scenario, the 

following inputs were selected: 
58

• Commercial viability: Commercial space companies will be economically viable and operate 

independently of the government market for both near-Earth (in-orbit and lunar) and 

interplanetary applications.

• Earth environmental stability: The climate crisis will be in “healing” mode with a trend 

towards returning to historically expected levels.

• Domestic politics influence on NASA: There has been a shift in domestic politics influence with 

NASA having cross-administration continuity and enduring priorities across the board.

• Sustained human presence: Society will have fully established its off-world presence with 

societies both on- and off-world.

• Geopolitical stability: There will be no conflict with competition distributed between many 

nation-states.

• Capability gamechangers for NASA: In the transform scenario, revolutionary interplanetary 

transportation methods, a fully integrated metaverse, and fully scaled synthetic biology for all 

applications are the driving capability gamechangers for NASA.

Figure 21. Transform Threadable CONOPS. 

The combination of these factors led to a transform scenario titled “Children of Space” with a tagline of 

“Expansion to an interplanetary society.” The key themes for the transform scenario were:

• A major breakthrough in high-speed space travel is found

• Significant profits are being made off mining platinum from an asteroid

• This leads many wealthy people to move to live off-world

• The commercial sector has experimented with DNA modification of humans to enhance their 

livelihood and reproductive capabilities off-world

• As humankind transitions to living off-world, the drain on Earth-based resources is reduced and 

the climate crisis issues begin to stabilize and eventually reverse trends
59

• AI and quantum sensors detect a potential AI signature from another galaxy

The discipline scenario’s full narrative follows:

In 2030, a major breakthrough in space traveling capabilities is made and we can now travel at 

revolutionary speeds throughout the solar system. The first trillionaire is established when 

someone finds an asteroid with significant amounts of platinum and mines the resource for use on 

Earth. By 2035, many wealthy people choose to live off-world as it gives them access to 

incredibly lucrative market. To scale these new space companies, they must set up full settlements 

to support operations. This leads to commercial companies exploring and solving biological 

challenges of long-duration spaceflight and living off-world. Solutions to these issues included 

genetic modification to ensure effective off-world reproduction, shots that change our DNA to 

withstand/reverse radiation impacts, and successful demonstration of re-wiring of the brain to be 

resilient to new psychological environments. Additionally, companies begin to leverage AI more 

and more to help expand their growing space enterprises. A byproduct of the establishment of offworld companies is a substantial reduction in the strain on global infrastructure as there are 

fewer people to support and resources coming from other worlds. This solves the climate crisis 

with temperatures on average dropping to statistical 1000-year averages. This crisis-aversion 

leads to a new sense of global stability (if it lasts is another story). 

In 2045, a next-generation telescope is developed, equipped with AI and quantum sensors. This 

enables incredibly sensitive measurements and quick data analysis to determine exactly what it is 

finding. The settlement near Neptune, initially established by Japan, deploys the telescope, and a 

techno-signature from another galaxy is discovered. A mission to investigate this discovery is sent 

from the settlement a decade after discovery, with a goal of returning with definitive results 

within a decade. 

From a strategic resiliency perspective, this scenario gives rise to the following key questions for NASA

to consider more broadly:

• What is NASA going to do if/when life is discovered off planet? 

• What if NASA is not the organization to discover life off Earth? 

• What roles and responsibilities are NASA expected to have? 

• What ways NASA could be viewed as a failure?

6.4 Scenario Analysis

After the development of each scenario, these corner cases were analyzed to determine implications for 

NASA and potential resilient strategic options. To begin, each scenario was analyzed against seven key 

criteria to determine potential strategies for response to the given scenario. Challenges, opportunities, and 

implications were identified against each criterion and fed into the development of potential macrostrategies for NASA. The seven criteria were:

1. Mission: Defining the “why” behind the activities and nature behind how NASA pursues them 

2. Resourcing: How much budget is needed for NASA activities and how is it allocated internally, 

particularly with respect to other key areas (e.g., workforce, culture, innovation)?

3. Organizational effectiveness: How impactful are the tangible outcomes of actionable intelligence 

and execution? How is efficiency calculated to best support agility, adaptiveness, and teaming? 
60

How much are initiatives designed for change versus designed to last (scalable, adaptable, 

modular)?

4. Workforce/talent: How is NASA able to find the right alignment and balance of expertise when 

and where needed? How is NASA able to navigate the current talent market, any generational 

divides within the workforce, and geopolitics? How is NASA able to retain talent and able to 

meet the workforce needs (e.g., new way of work, DEI)?

5. Leadership: What broader vision and communication exists, and needs to exist, to drive the 

organization forward in a unified way? Is the workforce and leadership aligned and does 

leadership have enterprise-wide buy-in to their vision?

6. Culture: What are the organizational tendencies, beliefs, and approaches in how the work is 

done? What incentives drive the workforce and organization?

7. Innovation: How does NASA access innovation (e.g., internally, partnering, leveraging 

commercial developments)? How does NASA create an innovation ecosystem? Who has the 

technical advantage and available technology?
61

Table 9. Analysis Table of Each Scenario against Seven Key Criteria, with Potential Challenges, Opportunities, or Implications for Each Criterion

Scenario Mission / 

Purpose Resourcing Organizational Effectiveness

Workforce / 

Talent Leadership Culture Innovation

Growth

“Commercial 

Space in the 

Driver’s Seat” 

Focus on farflung 

exploration; 

large emphasis 

on science & 

technology

Potential 

opportunity to 

reevaluate how to 

retain talent with 

retention being a 

key challenge

Need leadership 

who is open to 

championing 

change

NASA needs to 

ensure culture is 

well known to 

attract talent and 

has opportunity to 

set norms for 

safety and 

governance

NASA needs to 

develop a better 

international 

strategy and learn 

how to leverage 

commercial 

Discipline

“Retreat from 

the Final 

Frontier” 

Opportunity to 

engage public 

more in mission 

in non-traditional 

ways; what 

should NASA’s 

role in climate 

be?

NASA has 

opportunity to lead 

government into this 

new metaverse and 

establish a new way 

of interacting with 

citizens

Challenge to 

attract the best 

and brightest—

how to get people 

to leave 

metaverse 

Opportunity to 

shift culture 

towards virtual 

engagement

Decline

“Blamed for 

the Big One” 

Need to adjust 

to a severely 

constrained 

environment

NASA has huge 

opportunity to make 

a comeback

Ability to attract 

new talent will be 

extremely 

challenging—will 

need to take an 

innovative 

approach 

Leadership must 

lead NASA 

through tough 

times—show 

workforce there 

is a path through

Must drive 

innovation 

internationally to 

help get people 

off Earth

Transform

“Children of 

Space”

Opportunity to 

re-shift focus if 

desired

Higher focus 

on 

astrobiology 

likely

NASA could lead 

governance 

conversation for 

off-world 

settlements

Re-think 

approach to 

partnerships 
62

Table 9 shows the results of this analysis, which was performed by Aerospace SMEs and the Aerospace 

foresighting team and serves as the foundation for the development of strategic options. For example, a 

loss of public trust is the core theme of the decline scenario, and the analysis team noted in Table 9 that a 

challenge stemming from that scenario is that the “ability to attract new talent will be extremely 

challenging—will need to take an innovative approach” under the workforce / talent criterion. The result 

is a candidate strategic option, “substantial effort to increase value proposition for attracting and 

sustaining talent.” That strategic option is also supported by inputs from the roundtables and interviews: 

• The roundtables and horizon scanning, which revealed societal trends such as challenges 

hiring and retaining STEM talent, demand for more benefits in the workplace, and the 

alignment of job and personal values, as detailed in Section 3.2, Detailed Observations from 

Internal Roundtables, and Detailed Observations from External Roundtables

• NASA executive interviews, which included quotes such as, “[NASA needs to] recognize 

experts to keep them from leaving, invest in training and development, quality of life, flexible 

and agile, and facilities that will attract people” and “[NASA should invest in its] 

infrastructure plus the people – if we can’t get access to people and they aren’t attracted [to 

work at NASA] because NASA isn’t [an] awesome place to come – but people need to have a 

good place to come to.” 

The foresighting team used this analysis process to generate a total of 15 strategic options, which

appear in Figure 22. All these strategic options rest on the triad of inputs: (1) an internal review of the 

scenarios by Aerospace as captured in Table 9, (2) the roundtable exercises with NASA staff, and (3) 

interview feedback from NASA executives. Strategic Options and Supporting Roundtable Inputs includes 

a detailed breakdown of each strategic option’s heritage from the roundtables and interviews. 

Figure 22. Possible strategic options for the five categories that NASA could pursue. 

These strategies are further analyzed for their resilience in the next section.
63

The 15 strategic options are grouped into five categories: commercial, innovation, non-commercial 

partnerships, workforce/talent, and policy. Some of these strategic options are mutually exclusive, and 

others are not. For example, strategic options #8 (“Maximize partnerships across all efforts”) and #9 

(“DIY: don’t partner”) cannot be pursued simultaneously, as they capture two extremes on the spectrum 

of possible non-commercial partnership strategies. Any single strategy cannot be considered in isolation, 

and NASA cannot adopt all of them. 

The strategic options and categories in Figure 22 are only starting points for strategic development and 

are not exhaustive. A discussion about each of these may yield relevant information in the context of 

resilience. Further work remains in strategic formulation and planning activities to refine this initial list 

and develop larger-scale macro strategies that can be evaluated against the scenarios in this work for 

resiliency and efficacy. For reference, see Strategic Options and Supporting Roundtable Inputs for the 

strategic options parred with their supporting inputs from the roundtables and executive interviews. 

After development of these strategic options, the question remains whether or how each provides 

resilience across the diverse futures considered in the scenario development. This question was tackled in 

two steps: 

1. The strategic options were each analyzed for viability and resilience against each scenario. 

2. The scenarios’ relevance and resilience were compared against the level of organizational 

transformation needed to realize them (a proxy for the options’ risk). This allowed strategies to be 

identified that provide the greatest resilience while requiring the least organizational change (or, 

the least risk). 

The results of this analysis are presented in Section 7. 
64

7. Cross-Futures Assessment

In this section, we present the results of the cross-scenario analysis of potential strategy options and their 

assessment of performance across each scenario. The strategies analyzed are not an exhaustive set of 

strategic options. The analysis presented here is a framework for future macro strategy formulation. By 

combining multiple strategies together, a high-level enterprise strategic goal can be formulated. Many of 

the strategies presented are not mutually exclusive (i.e., could be adopted together in a holistic NASA 

organizational strategy), but some are exclusive and cannot be pursued simultaneously. 

Each of the 15 candidate macro strategy options was evaluated against two metrics: (1) the number of 

scenarios where the strategy would position NASA more strongly to survive and thrive in the possible 

future of the scenario and (2) the degree of transformation required of NASA to pursue that strategy. The 

degree of transformation was broken down into four categories:

1. Current practice: Strategies or policies that NASA follows today

2. No regrets: Strategic options that NASA could adopt with little or no downside and minimal cost

3. Middle of the road: Strategic options that would require some organizational or cultural change at 

NASA and may have some opportunity cost

4. Big leaps: Strategic options that would signal a substantial change in NASA organizationally or 

culturally, would require NASA to expend political capital, and/or would demand a large 

realignment of resources

Both metrics were evaluated by the team based on a review of the strategic option itself, the scenarios, 

and feedback from roundtable interviews that provided insight into current perceptions of NASA’s risk 

aversion and willingness to change (see, for example, discussion of the futures baseline in Section 6.3.1). 

The detailed scenario coverage assessment appears in Table 10. The table lists each strategic option and, 

for the four corner-case future scenarios, marks those scenarios where the strategic option would provide 

organizational resilience and continue to guide NASA towards its desired future states, as discussed in 

Section 5.2. In the final column, each strategic option is binned for its degree of organizational 

transformation, from 1 (current practice) to 4 (big leap). 

Although it may initially appear that organizations should optimize for the lowest degree of 

transformation, this is not advised in an ever-changing environment. Every organization needs to take 

some big leaps, but not every strategic decision should be a big leap. An organization will benefit from a 

mix of strategies across different degrees of organizational transformation, albeit with a weighting 

towards the lower end (i.e., current practice).

For example, Table 10 identifies strategic option #2 (“NASA transitions to an acquisition-only agency”), 

in which NASA employees are not actively building or integrating in house or operating spacecraft, as 

resilient for the growth and decline scenarios. In the growth scenario, transition to an acquisition-only 

strategy would free up resources from in-house build and operations to contract out to increasingly 

dominant commercial capabilities. In the decline scenario, an acquisition-only NASA would have been 

more insulated from the loss of public trust, having shifted many of its current responsibilities onto 

industry, and been in a stronger position after the disaster to stand up the acquisition of a large-scale offworld resettlement effort. In contrast, an acquisition-only strategy would prove highly disadvantageous in 

the discipline scenario, because in that scenario there was no surviving commercial space industry to 

contract. And in the transform scenario, the acquisition-only model would hamper NASA from pursuing 

an aggressive exploration regime in the newly accessible Solar System, being constrained to the set 
65

offerings of commercial industry in this future and less capable of fielding the necessary custom 

capabilities for exploration. Overall, the team assessed this strategy as being a “big leap” organizationally, 

requiring a substantial culture change within NASA, a large-scale realignment of resources, and likely a 

change in political priorities for NASA from Congress. 

After each strategic option was assigned values for the two metrics (i.e., scenario resilience and degree of 

transformation), they were assembled into the 4 × 4 grid in Figure 23, where the number of scenarios 

covered by the strategic option is on the horizontal axis and the degree of transformation on the vertical 

axis. 

Figure 23. Scenario assessment on resiliency and degree of transformation for NASA.

The preferred strategic options are those in the lower right corner of the grid, where the largest number of 

possible future scenarios are covered and where the least amount of organizational transformation (i.e., 

current practice or “no regrets”) is needed. Three strategic options are in this preferred region of the 

grid, being highly resilient and with little or no downside to adoption: 

• #5 Lead the frontier (i.e., go as far and fast as possible, explore the unknown where no one 

else is)

• #6 Catalyze access for all (i.e., enable mechanisms for significant part of society to 

participate in exploration and science)

• #11 Increase the value proposition for attracting and sustaining talent

This analysis suggests that pursuing these three strategic options could strongly position NASA in the 

face of a volatile and uncertain future without the need for a major shift in culture or resources. These 

three strategic options differ from NASA’s ostensible current practice. For example, NASA’s role in 

exploration is undisputed, but strategic option #5 (lead the frontier) envisions an approach that prioritizes 

revolutionary innovation and exploration over incremental advancements and where other civil or 
66

commercial interests are deliberately encouraged to take over after each frontier has been reached. 

Furthermore, NASA is already well regarded for its educational and public outreach, but strategic option 

#6 (catalyze access for all) is a more comprehensive approach where the public would take a more direct 

and meaningful part in NASA’s exploratory mission, as opposed to being simply a consumer of media.

Lastly, strategic option #11 (increase the value proposition for attracting talent) involves not only creating 

direct incentives for retention (e.g., compensation) but also restructuring the organization to improve 

employee satisfaction (e.g., geographically distributed employees doing work for any center) and 

including metrics for the potential for talent attraction and retention in the projects that NASA pursues.

In contrast, two strategic options that are current practice were not resilient to any of the considered future 

scenarios: 

• #10 Be the best government option (i.e., excel at providing the best work environment in the U.S. 

government)

• #13 Arbiter of data and not policy (i.e., NASA presents or provides data, but does not get 

involved in policy formulation or decisions)

Resilience against the considered corner-case scenarios demanded more proactive strategic approaches. 

NASA is widely regarded today—and reflected in the sentiments of both the internal and external 

roundtables—as one of the most desirable places to work in the U.S. government. However, the talent 

landscape is rapidly changing, and the scenarios indicate that this approach may be insufficient. 

Additionally, NASA is a go-to resource for large amounts of archived research data, documentation, 

scholarly writings, and best practices. But the scenarios suggest that unduly focusing on being only 

provider of data prevents NASA from positioning itself favorably in situations where NASA would have 

been expected (either politically or publicly) to be responsible, whether it had anything to do with shaping 

policy or not. 

The remaining 10 strategic options offer varying levels of resilience and adoption implications and 

require individual analysis. Of note are two options that are resilient against three of the four future 

scenarios (which indicates that these options are largely applicable regardless of future state): 

• #4 Focus on basic research (i.e., rebalance portfolio to be more research focused rather than 

mission-execution focused)

• #15 NASA is a direct influencer of policy (i.e., NASA as an explicit advocator of policies 

through data-driven evidence)

Both strategic options are considered “big leaps” in terms of organizational transformation. In the case of 

strategy #4 (focus on basic research), the dominance of commercial space in three of the four scenarios 

suggested that NASA may be more advantageously positioned in a pure research role, for which there is 

little commercial appetite, and by divesting many mission-execution activities that consume substantial 

resources but that may be overtaken by commercial capabilities by mid-century. Strategic option #15 

(NASA is a direct influencer of policy) is the proactive complement to option #13, mentioned above as 

being not resilient. The scenarios explore multiple futures where humanity’s place in space and 

interaction with technology are substantially evolved from today. Without proactive involvement in the 

development of policy, NASA may run the risk of being overtaken or made irrelevant if it remains a 

spectator to the dynamism of events.
67

Table 10. Strategic Options, Their Descriptions, and Their Scenario Coverage

Strategic Options Description Baseline Growth Decline Discipline Transform Degree of 

Transformation 

Bin 

Commercial

1. Maintain internal capabilities 

relevant to NASA’s mission 

Overlap exists between what NASA is doing 

and what commercial can do x x 3 

2. NASA transitions to an 

acquisition-only agency

NASA employees are not actively building, 

integrating, or operating in-house x x 2 

3. Skate to where commercial 

isn't

Fully transition commercial-viable capabilities 

out of NASA x x 3 

Innovation

4. Focus on basic research Rebalance portfolio to be more research 

focused rather than mission-execution focused x x x 3 

5. Lead the frontier Go as far and fast as possible, explore the 

unknown where no one else is x x x 1 

6. Catalyze access for all Enable mechanisms for a significant part of 

society to participate in exploration and science x x x 3 

Non-Commercial 

Partnerships

7. Master in targeted areas, 

partner elsewhere

Self-sufficient in small subset of core 

competencies, partner elsewhere because 

NASA cannot do it all 

x x 3 

8. Maximize partnerships across 

all efforts 

Value proposition as an integrator across 

interagency, international, etc., not necessarily 

an expert everywhere 

x x 3 

9. DIY: don’t partner Complete vertical integration under NASAfunded efforts x 1 

Workforce/ Talent

10. Be the best government 

option 

Excel at providing the best work environment in 

the USG 

x 1 

11. Substantial effort to increase 

value proposition for attracting 

and sustaining talent 

Push government swim lanes for talent 

acquisition 

x x x x 4 

12. Compete with nongovernment for top talent 

Break open new possibilities for getting talent x x 2 

Policy

13. Arbiter of data not policy NASA presents/provides data, but does not get 

involved in policy formulation or decisions 

x 1 

14. Use NASA’s voice to drive 

awareness for policy 

NASA drives conversations on topics where it 

has expertise 

x x 3 

15. NASA as a direct influencer 

of policy 

NASA as an explicit policy advocate through 

data-driven evidence 

x x x 2 
68

8. Additional Key Insights

To complement the strategic options, the foresighting team synthesized roundtable and interview inputs 

and industry best practices into a set of “universal elements” that underlie a successful strategic 

implementation, irrespective of the future state or specific strategies chosen for the organization. Figure 

24 shows the universal elements for successful implementation of any strategy selected by NASA 

leadership. These elements are necessary to accomplishing any strategic vision and are areas where action 

can be taken now, regardless of strategy. Both the current and future-ready assessment can be altered by 

actions through strategy. All these elements should be actively managed, even if an organization is 

performing favorably across them, because the future trend is subject to forces outside of an 

organization’s control. Acknowledgment of the changing context and vigilance towards maintaining 

relevancy in each of these core areas is necessary to building a strong and resilient organizational 

foundation. Figure 24 includes a detailed description of the element, an assessment of NASA’s current 

performance on that element, and a baseline of the projected trend for that element. 

Participants in the roundtables illuminated many of these universal elements and addressed their 

perceptions on NASA’s current performance, which indicated that performance varies widely across 

them, from excellent (e.g., NASA’s worldwide branding, and STEM reachback) to poor (e.g., 

organizational alignment on vision, and fostering a collaborative cross-center environment). For example, 

NASA currently performs well on “an inspired workforce of top talent.” Feedback from the roundtables 

consistently indicated that NASA remains a desired place to work within government and access to talent 

is not currently a challenge. However, talent attraction, particularly due to outside pressures such as the 

growing private sector and a known reduction in the proficiency of US STEM talent41, will put increasing 

pressure on this element. 

In contrast, roundtable feedback suggests that work remains to improve NASA’s performance in crosscenter collaboration, which is among the Innovation & Business Practices universal elements. Roundtable 

participants expressed frustration at the deep-rooted competition between different NASA centers and the 

de facto prohibition on collaboration with geographically separated colleagues and sometimes even within 

centers themselves when proposal dollars are at stake. The emphasis on competition instead of

cooperation across the mission and centers could be preventing NASA from seizing new opportunities.

This management decision also causes unnecessary stress and friction between the NASA centers that 

works against the organization’s larger mission. Should such patterns continue, the work environment and 

the mission will be further negatively impacted. 

41 Gabrielle Athanasia and Jillian Cota, “The U.S. Should Strengthen STEM Education to Remain Globally Competitive,” Center 

for Strategic and International Studies, April 1, 2022.
69

Universal Elements for Successful Implementation

Category Description 

Current Performance 4

(color based on inputs from roundtables & interviews)

green- good; yellow- fair; red- concerning

Baseline 

Trend

Leadership & 

Organization 

Organizational alignment on a collective, 

understood, and believed vision & 

mission (the “why” for NASA)

NASA has a clear, solid vision/mission statement, 

however there is a lack of necessary alignment or 

understanding throughout the organization

 An integrated strategy roadmap for the 

NASA enterprise to help meet the vision 

and mission

Roadmaps at mission/directorate level, but not 

integrated/refined at enterprise level 

Stakeholder management strategy 

including resourcing and enduring 

missions

Recognition of the need to increase amount of 

stakeholder engagement to reduce changes from 

admin to admin, but improvements needed 

Workforce / 

Talent 

An inspired workforce of top talent 

NASA continues to be a top-ranking government 

employer and engage new talent, but workforce is at 

risk, no guaranteed continuation



Top talent is retained and sustained at 

NASA

Some generational disconnects between wants/needs 

of workplace and mission resonance, and their 

understanding across management levels



Ensure a vibrant workforce promoting 

diversity, equity, and inclusion 

Good progress on diversity, but room to go for equity 

and inclusion (particularly in leadership) 

Future 

Preparedness 

/ Resilience 

Adaptability and agility of the enterprise to 

weather disruptions and changes to the 

mission environment

Need formal approach for enabling integrated 

organizational flexibility to address surprise/drive 

Consistent scanning of how the 

change 

environment is changing and weaving 

these insights into decision-making

Need to identify key internal stakeholders and 

processes that integrate horizon scanning insights into 

updating strategy

Innovation & 

Business 

Practices 

NASA can do some of the biggest, most 

complex, highest collaborative projects in 

the world

Demonstrated feats few others in the world have been 

able to achieve and should continue to “go big” 



Reach-back to public, STEM, and 

international collaboration

Continue to strive to be world-class in its outreach 

efforts

Government-leading organization for 

commercial partnerships

Continue to lead in catalyzing and partnering with 

commercial 

A collaborative—not counterproductive—

competitive environment between mission 

centers and directorates

Need to address stove-piping and counterproductive 

internal competition 

Abundant cross-enterprise collaboration 

to drive innovative outcomes 

There are examples of excellence, need to expand 

enterprise wide within NASA and expand interagency, 

international, and commercial examples 

Ability to prioritize geographic and 

organizational balance in portfolio to 

maximize impact across the entire 

enterprise

Work distributed by mission and Centers, not properly 

balanced across the enterprise 

Recognize when to stop doing things that 

no longer serve the collective NASA 

mission

Need to establish rigorous process to decide when to 

stop and/or streamline investments to ensure they are 

serving collective mission

Brand 

Positive worldwide brand Continue to maintain/enhance globally recognized 

brand

Be a trusted source of information and 

wisdom worldwide

Continue to provide trusted, science-based insight to 

the public

Figure 24. Universal elements for successful implementation grouped into categories with descriptions and current 

performance. It is important to also consider the projected baseline trend as current performance is not necessarily 

indicative of an ability to perform in the future environment. 
70

Lastly, the team assembled a series of key questions for NASA leadership that emerged overall from the 

foresighting analysis, and the inputs gathered from the roundtables, interviews, and documentation 

review. These are major questions relevant to NASA’s vision, mission, and strategic direction that 

leadership should consider in the earliest stages of the strategic development process. The key questions

appear in Figure 25. The diverse perspectives and strategic thinking of the roundtable participants 

highlighted four dominant themes that NASA’s leadership must grapple with: 

1. Balancing Acts. The future will require balancing many different strategic factors that not only 

play into NASA’s technology portfolio but also impact the “why” for NASA and its 

organizational vision and mission: 

a. Commercial capabilities vs. in-house development

b. International partnerships vs. domestic capability

c. Human spaceflight vs. robotic exploration

2. Being Poised for Change. NASA must be prepared to inhabit a world where change is the norm

and where stopping activities may be as important as starting them to maintain alignment with 

the organization’s collective vision.

3. Responding to Shocks. World events could shake NASA’s foundations, and the organization 

should pursue a strategy as resilient as possible to weather them, from the discovery of 

extraterrestrial life to major global conflict to being beaten on the way to Mars.

4. Defining Success. Every mission at NASA must define success criteria, and leadership should 

also define “success” for the organization and what it means for NASA to thrive and not just 

survive.

Figure 25. Key questions for NASA leadership to consider during the strategic development process. 

The formulation of these questions relied heavily on diversity of perspectives. 
71

NASA leadership should work to address these key questions first, including formulating a strategy and 

an action plan to address their posture towards each. Identifying key signposts and decision points they 

can anticipate along the way is also helpful in managing high-impact issues in uncertain environments. 

For example, key measures NASA might consider for guiding its strategy towards its relationship with 

commercial companies include meeting performance metrics, maintaining business sustainability, or 

having multiple commercial options to deliver a capability as some signposts to monitor as it decides the 

pathway forward. NASA may determine that certain signposts need to emerge before they execute the 

next phase of its strategy. It may also set up some pilot programs to test out certain approaches before 

scaling across the organization. The other key questions identified in this study (including the scenarios’ 

key focus question in Section 6 and the key questions in Figure 24, are important to triage and address in 

the future. While some may not be as urgent, all have the potential for significant impact for the future of 

NASA. 

The foresighting team has compiled additional courses of action that NASA could consider as new or 

modified business practices that would serve to institutionalize the process of adapting to a VUCA future: 

• Establish an ongoing foresighting practice by leveraging current internal efforts at the mission 

and center levels. 

• Incorporate an enterprise-wide approach into areas such as executive strategy, visioning, 

technology investments, and partnerships. 

• Foster a more futures-aware workforce. 

• Create incentives to drive toward more enterprise-wide thinking aligned with the vision of 

NASA. 

• Deliberately incorporate diverse perspectives from throughout the workforce in enterprise-level 

initiatives. 

Foresighting is only the first step in the strategy formulation and execution process. After exploring the 

trends and disruptors, possible futures, critical uncertainties, and possible strategic options, the follow-on 

steps are strategy formulation, then change management, and finally tracking implementation progress. 

The 2021 ASAP report recommended that “NASA should develop a strategic vision for the future of 

space exploration that encompasses at least the next twenty years,” and that the vision “should describe 

the role that NASA intends to play during that period.” Additionally, “all aspects of the strategic plan 

should be clearly and unambiguously communicated throughout the Agency.” Finally, it recommends that 

NASA determine “how the Agency is going to understand and manage risk in the more complex 

environment in which it will be operating.” The findings presented in this study are a framework that 

NASA may consider when addressing these recommendations. Any organization risks its relevance, 

resilience, and ability to shape the future if it fails to adopt a collective and integrated strategy, as 

recommended in ASAP 2021 Annual Report. Foresighting is not a one-time event. Routine reiteration is 

important to ensure an organization is constantly evolving to adapt to an ever-changing environment.
72

Appendix A. Detailed Trends and Disruptors

In this appendix, we provide a full list of trends and disruptors from ITONICS (The Aerospace 

Corporation’s horizon scanning platform). Trends and emerging disruptors from the roundtable can be 

found in Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables and Detailed Observations from External 

Roundtables

1. Canada Aims to Establish a New Space Division to Further its Space Capabilities: “Canada’s 

military will establish a new space division later this year as it further develops its capabilities 

and skills for space operations. The division would be responsible to the Royal Canadian Air 

Force commander for the generation of space capabilities for force employment missions. 

Canada’s version would be much smaller than the US’s Space Force.”42

2. Russia-Ukraine War Worsens Fertilizer Crunch, Risking Food Supplies: “The Russia-Ukraine 

war pushes up the price of natural gas, a key ingredient in fertilizer, and has led to severe 

sanctions against Russia, a major exporter of fertilizer. Higher fertilizer prices are making the 

world’s food supply more expensive and less abundant, as farmers skimp on nutrients for their 

crops and get lower yields. While the ripples will be felt by grocery shoppers in wealthy 

countries, the squeeze on food supplies will land hardest on families in poorer countries.”43 

3. Stretchable and Printable Free-Form Lithium-Ion Batteries: A Korean research team has 

developed a soft, mechanically deformable, and stretchable lithium battery that can be used in the 

development of wearable devices and examined the battery’s feasibility by printing them on 

clothing surfaces. The development of a battery that is soft and stretchable like human skin and 

organs has been attracting interest owing to the rapidly increasing demand for high-performance 

wearable devices such as smart bands, implantable electronic devices such as pacemakers, and 

soft wearable devices for use in the realistic metaverse.44 

4. Wildfires Will Worsen, Warns U.N. Report: “Fires are going to be bigger, more intense, and more 

frequent....According to the report, wildfires may increase globally by 14% by the end of this 

decade and 50% by 2100 if no preventive actions are taken.”45 

5. Cooling Upper Atmosphere Impacts LEO Satellites: Long-term data on the mesosphere, the layer 

30 to 50 miles above Earth’s surface, has revealed that it is cooling and contracting. Scientists 

believe this is caused by the insulating effect of a thickening lower atmosphere, a trend that will 

increase with time.46 

6. DeepMind Has Trained an AI to Control Nuclear Fusion: The Google-backed firm taught a 

reinforcement learning algorithm to control the fiery plasma inside a tokamak nuclear fusion 

reactor. Finding smart ways to control and confine that plasma will be key to unlocking the 

potential of nuclear fusion, which has been mooted as the clean energy source of the future for 

decades. At this point, the science underlying fusion seems sound, so what remains is an 

engineering challenge. An AI-controlled tokamak could be optimized to control the transfer of 

heat out of the reaction to the walls of the vessel and prevent damaging “plasma instabilities.” 

The reactors themselves could be redesigned to take advantage of the tighter control offered by 

42 “Canada Aims to Establish a NewSpace Division to Further its Space Capabilities,” SpaceNews, April 22, 2022. 43 “Russia-Ukraine War Worsens Fertilizer Crunch, Risking Food Supplies,” NPR, April 13, 2022. 44 “Stretchable and Printable Free-Form Lithium-Ion Batteries,” Advanced Batteries & Energy Storage Research, April 5, 2022. 45 “Wildfires Will Worsen, Warns U.N. Report,” Eos, March 31, 2022. 46 “NASA Satellites Find Upper Atmosphere Cooling and Contracting Due to Climate Change,” SciTechDaily, July 4, 2021. 
73

reinforcement learning. Ultimately the collaboration with DeepMind could allow researchers to 

push the boundaries and accelerate the long journey toward fusion power.47

7. Technology integration with intelligent life forms: “For millennia, people have trained canines to 

assist with everyday activities of humans, from herding sheep to sniffing out explosives. The four 

URLs attached to this signal discuss (1) how primarily dolphins have been used for underwater 

assistance from mine clearing to surveillance, (2) advancements in robotics for more complexed 

tasks and delicate maneuvering, and (3) and (4) the ability to functionally communicate with 

other intelligent life forms on our planet. Putting these all together, what sort of ethical issues 

might arise? For example, in the article about the dolphins, the Soviets had armed dolphins to 

attack people or other dolphins that might enter one of their ports. Can these ethical issues be 

balanced by humankind’s needs for justified intervention in international conflicts and other 

hazardous conditions? Could this be something that we use in spaceflight? What if we used a 

monkey with a robotic arm attached to climb around the outside of a spacecraft to fix problems 

during flight?”48

8. Power for the moon and beyond: Innovative new magnet could facilitate development of fusion 

and medical devices. “If we are designing a power plant that will run continuously for hours or 

days, then we can’t use current magnets,” Zhai said. “Those facilities will produce more highenergy particles than current experimental facilities do. The magnets in production today would 

not last long enough for future facilities like commercial fusion power plants.” In this new type 

of magnet, metal acts as insulation and therefore would not be damaged by particles. In addition, 

it would operate at higher temperatures than current superconducting electromagnets do, making 

it easier to maintain.49 

9. Researchers Devise Card Game to Create a more Inclusive Experience for Awareness of Urban 

Planning Research for Kuwaitis: “Urban design and planning have historically had a reputation 

for being technocratic and top-down, driven and guided by policy reports, academic research and 

data that ultimately leaves behind ‘end users’ or the people who actually live in these places in 

the process. Kuwaitscapes is a card game based around our research into public space and 

policymaking in Kuwait. It aims to raise awareness on how to serve diverse user groups and 

explore how public spaces are used at different scales of urban analysis.”50

10. Smart city technology and the future of policing: “A ‘smart city’ is one where data collection by 

sensors and analytics are used to facilitate services for better performance, improved 

sustainability, lower costs and a decreased environmental impact. After the demands the past two 

years have brought on policing, smart city technologies open a window of opportunity for law 

enforcement that is about more than just solving and deterring crime. It can also improve 

contentious community relations and mend a broken identity between the protectors and the 

protected. By adopting smart city technology, police departments can become more effective by 

saving staff hours and costs and providing better service. This can build stronger relationships 

with the community.”51

11. Compressing Time-to-Decision: As change and the need for quick decisioning become more 

essential, many are seeking best practices for sourcing and storing big data in different formats, 

47 “DeepMind Has Trained an AI to Control Nuclear Fusion,” Wired, March 23, 2022. 48 “How dolphins protect the US nuclear arsenal,” The Bulletin, March 16, 2022. 49 “Innovative new magnet could facilitate development of fusion and medical devices,” Phys, March 4, 2022. 50 “Researchers Devise Card Game to Create a more Inclusive Experience for Awareness of Urban Planning Research for 

Kuwaitis,” London School of Economics, March 4, 2022. 51 “Smart city technology and the future of policing,” Police1, January 31, 2022.
74

deploying intelligent systems, monitoring their performance, and developing ethical solutions 

that are compliant with new regulations. Often called artificial intelligence (AI), current 

intelligent systems employ narrow AI to improve speed and accuracy for the multitude of 

structured problems they address. In fact, some vendors claim the need for customer decisions 

with streaming data processing, using hundreds of models to inform them in less than 200 

milliseconds. This is usually achieved by leveraging data and analytics services to perform data 

management that discovers, describes, organizes, integrates, shares, governs, and applies data to 

support decisioning.52

12. DIY Genetic Therapy: A Chinese father took it upon himself to develop a cure for a rare genetic 

disease that his son was diagnosed with. Xu Wei, a 30-year-old online entrepreneur with no prior 

college education, devoted his time to learning and developing medicine at home after his oneyear-old son, Haoyang, was diagnosed with Menkes disease, reported the South China Morning 

Post.53

13. Disruptive drilling technology to help geothermal power the world: U.S.-based technology 

startup Quaise Energy is looking at disrupting the geothermal sector with a completely unique 

drilling technology that could help tap deep supercritical resources. Geothermal energy systems 

have the potential to power the world and become the leading technology for reducing 

greenhouse gas emissions if we can drill down far enough into Earth to access the conditions 

necessary for economic viability and release the heat beneath our feet.54

14. Sandia National Lab’s psychologist notes a rise in hostile interactions between colleagues as 

part of rising trend of incivility: “Ben Klein, Sandia’s lead clinical psychologist, said he has seen 

ʻa rise hostile interactions and verbal conflicts between colleagues,’ which may be related to an 

increase in virtual work. A Portland State University study in August indicates that incivility is 

on the rise. Over the past two years, pandemic-driven isolation seems to have taken its toll on 

staff, even though Sandia offers a very positive, respectful workplace culture.”55

15. Hackers Can Access Pacemakers: The core message of a new advisory from the U.S. 

Department of Homeland Security (DHS) warned that computer hackers can easily gain access to 

implanted cardiac defibrillators made by Medtronic. “An attacker with adjacent short-range 

access to an affected product, in situations where the product’s radio is turned on, can inject, 

replay, modify, and/or intercept data within the telemetry communication,” according to a 

statement from the DHS.56 

16. Biomanufacturing: Coming Soon to a Galaxy Near You?: The DOD has a role in orbital and 

lunar missions as defined by the U.S. Space Force (USSF) Space Capstone Publication. In this 

document, USSF notes the “inherent value of the space domain and the tremendous influence 

space has on U.S. prosperity and security.”" There is a critical DOD need for the continued 

development and future expansion of orbital manufacturing to enable and ensure supply chain 

resiliency, sustained technological superiority, and asset security and repair for current and future 

operations. To meet this unique challenge, DARPA announced that it was taking an initial step to 

explore and de-risk manufacturing capabilities that leverage biological processes in resource 

52 “What is real-time decisioning? 5 Key Insights,” Pega, April 29, 2021 53 “A Chinese father could not find drugs to treat his son’s rare genetic disease, so he decided to make them himself,” South 

China Morning Post, October 15, 2021. 54 “Disruptive drilling technology to help geothermal power the world,” Think GeoEnergy, June 18, 2021. 55 “How do we manage an increase in workplace incivility?,” Sandia LabNews, November 5, 2021. 56 “Hackers Can Access Pacemakers, but Don’t Panic Just Yet,” Healthline, January 10, 2022.
75

limited environments with its Biomanufacturing: Survival, Utility, and Reliability beyond Earth 

(B-SURE) program.57 

17. Plans to pull CO2 out of the air: “The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced a bold new 

plan to make technologies, called carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies, cost-effective and 

scalable with the launch of a new “Carbon Negative Shot” initiative. Through this initiative, the 

agency seeks to bring the cost of CDR down dramatically this decade — to less than $100 a 

ton— so that it can be deployed at a big enough scale to remove “gigatons,” or billions of tons, of 

carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.”58

18. World’s first living robots can now reproduce, scientists say: The U.S. scientists who created the 

first living robots say the life forms, known as xenobots, can reproduce in a way not seen in 

plants and animals.59

19. ‘Antiwork’ movement may be long-run risk to labor force participation, Goldman Sachs: “About 

5 million Americans have exited the labor force since the pandemic began. Goldman Sachs 

estimates that about 3.4 million are likely gone for good due to retirements, meaning that 1.7 

million people are open to returning to work. But Goldman said in a note on Nov. 11 that there is 

a ‘long-run risk’ to labor force participation: a general distaste for work. The bank’s economics 

team pointed to the reddit thread r/Antiwork, a social media community carrying the mantra 

‘Unemployment for all, not just the rich!’ A common theme on r/Antiwork: younger workers 

sharing stories about being overworked and burnt out to the point of quitting.”60 

20. Sandia’s Atomic ‘Avocado’ Could Allow GPS-Free PNT: The first-of-its-kind device, a vacuum 

chamber for containing clouds of atomic particles that drive quantum sensors, is about the size of 

an avocado.61 

21. Chinese Censorship Is Going Global: Beijing is not content to stop stifling free speech at the 

water’s edge. This opinion piece suggests Western companies and institutions must put liberty 

before profits.62

22. NASA chief says Russia leaving ISS could kick off a space race: “The United States has for 

decades enjoyed a mutually beneficial relationship with Russia that has often served as a 

powerful symbol of cooperation between the East and West in the post-Cold War era. But that 

cooperation could soon dissolve, and it has NASA’s new chief, Bill Nelson, concerned. Russian 

officials are threatening to pull out of the International Space Station, the orbiting laboratory that 

the US and Russia have jointly operated for two decades, as soon as 2024 in favor of operating an 

independent space station. Meanwhile, Nelson and the US government want to continue the ISS 

program through at least 2030.”63

23. Commonwealth Fusion Systems creates viable path to commercial fusion power with world’s 

strongest magnet: “The fastest path to clean, limitless fusion energy. The milestone test, 

conducted at MIT’s Plasma Science and Fusion Center, proved that the magnet built at scale can 

57 “Biomanufacturing: Coming Soon to a Galaxy Near You?” DARPA News, 22 November 2021. 58 “The US has big, new plans to pull CO2 out of the air,” The Verge, 5 November 2021. 59 “World’s first living robots can now reproduce, scientists say,” CNN, 29 November 2021. 60 “'Antiwork' movement may be long-run risk to labor force participation: Goldman Sachs,” Yahoo! News, 15 November 2021. 61 “Sandia’s Atomic ‘Avocado’ Could Allow GPS-Free PNT,” Breaking Defense, 1 November 2021. 62 “Chinese Censorship Is Going Global,” Foreign Policy, 28 October 2021. 63 “NASA chief says Russia leaving ISS could kick off a space race,” CNN, 4 June 2021.
76

reach a sustained magnetic field of more than 20 tesla, enough to enable CFS’s compact tokamak 

device, called SPARC, to achieve net energy from fusion, a historic first.”64

24. Close Calls with Starlink Account for Roughly Half of All Incidents: “The Astronautics Research 

Group at the University of Southampton, U.K., has found that Starlink satellites account for 

roughly 1,600 close encounters every week. A close encounter in this research is classified as two 

spacecraft passing within 1 km of each other. Many of these encounters are self-inflicted and 

lower to 500 per week when only considering encounters with non-Starlink spacecraft. As the 

constellation size increases, it is projected that up to 90% of all close encounters in LEO will 

stem from Starlink encounters. Current notification processes are not easily scalable due to their 

reliance on manual action, according to Kayhan Space CEO (which itself is developing a 

commercial autonomous space traffic management system).”65

25. Neural net can detect leaky pipes: By tracking water pressure at various points and using 

artificial intelligence/neural nets, new research shows the ability to monitor large national 

infrastructures for possible hazards. With enough sensors and data, maybe roads, bridges, power 

lines, and traffic jams could also be monitored.66

26. Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather increases: A comprehensive analysis 

shows that warmer temperatures aren’t the only threat.67

27. Improving air quality reduces dementia risk, multiple studies suggest: Improving air quality may 

improve cognitive function and reduce dementia risk, according to several recent studies.68

28. Researchers Found Telemedicine Usage in Israel during the COVID-19 Pandemic Did Not 

Significantly Affect Care Quality and Cost: Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, telemedicine saw 

limited use. Usage of telemedicine exploded during the COVID-19 pandemic as regulations 

changed and demand skyrocketed. The trend of telemedicine is unlikely to go away as the 

COVID-19 pandemic ends.69

29. New Research Report Finds Culture Is a Bigger Driver of Human Evolution than Genetics: 

Researchers found that culture helps humans adapt to their environment and overcome challenges 

better and faster than genetics. Tim Waring and Zach Wood found that humans are experiencing 

a “special evolutionary transition” in which the importance of culture is surpassing the value of 

genes as the primary driver of human evolution. Due to the group-orientated nature of culture, 

they also concluded that human evolution itself is becoming more group-oriented.70

30. Foreign Investment into China Continues to Grow despite Actions of Foreign Governments to 

Restrict Investment: Global economic decoupling from China or, as some call it, reshoring, is not 

happening. China’s share of global foreign direct investment in 2020 reached an all-time high of 

one quarter, almost twice its share in 2019. This broad measure of foreign direct investment 

64 “Commonwealth Fusion Systems creates viable path to commercial fusion power with world’s strongest magnet,” 

Commonwealth Fusion Systems, September 8, 2021. 65 “SpaceX Starlink satellites responsible for over half of close encounters in orbit, scientist says,” Space, August 18, 2021. 66 “This Neural Net Can Detect Leaky Pipes in Mere Seconds,” Popular Mechanics, April 10, 2020. 67 “Nuclear power’s reliability is dropping as extreme weather increases,” Ars Technica, July 24, 2021. 68 “Improving air quality reduces dementia risk, multiple studies suggest,” Alzheimer’s Association, July 26, 2021. 69 “Healthcare delivery: What the rise of telemedicine means for you,” World Economic Forum, July 26, 2021. 70 “Culture drives human evolution more than genetics,” University of Maine, June 2, 2021.
77

inflows includes new nonfinancial investment, reinvested profits of existing nonfinancial foreign 

affiliates, as well as foreign investment and reinvestment in financial institutions in China.71 

31. OrbitFab’s First Operational Gas Station in Space: “OrbitFab reported a successful deployment 

of Tanker-001 Tenzing from Spaceflight’s LTE-1 Orbital Transfer Vehicle on SpaceX’s 

Transporter 2 mission launched on June 30, 2021. OrbitFab’s company slogan is “Gas Stations in 

Space” and Tanker-001 is the first free-flying propellant depot they have launched. Tanker-001 

contains high-test peroxide (HTP), a green propellant, as its “gas” commodity to dispense to 

other clients. The spacecraft also has the company’s “gas cap,” RAFTI, for the purpose of fluid 

coupling in the space environment. Propellant is currently a strong life-limiting commodity on 

spacecraft. With the introduction of refueling capabilities into new spacecraft, operational 

lifetimes could likely increase with new maneuvers and CONOPS open for exploration/usage."72

32. ‘Great Resignation’—95% of workforce considering new job: In the wake of the COVID-19

pandemic, a growing number of workers are rethinking what they want in a job and a lifestyle.73

33. Blockchain Technology in Use to Reduce Public Procurement Process Corruption: “SettleMint 

is exploring the use of blockchain technology to reduce corruption in the public procurement 

process. OECD estimates 10% to 30% of the investment in publicly funded construction projects 

may be lost to corruption. Blockchain technology would increase transparency in the process, 

which should reduce the occurrence of corrupt acts.”74

34. Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek and It Was an ‘Overwhelming Success’: As remote work

became a roaring success for both companies and employees during the pandemic, it opened our 

eyes to new possibilities of how we can have a better life-work balance.75

35. New study highlights the link between greater green space and reduced loneliness: Adults in 

urban areas where there’s at least 30% green space have a lower chance of becoming lonely 

compared to those with less than 10% green space. Limiting loneliness has many impacts on 

health, reducing the risk of depression, heart disease, inflammation, dementia, and death.76

36. United States should push new space treaty: Atlantic Council: “The US should push hard to 

overhaul the entire international legal framework for outer space—including replacing the 

foundational 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST), a new report from the Atlantic Council says. As it 

moves to do so, the US also should more aggressively court allies with an eye to establishing a 

ʻcollective security alliance for space’ among likeminded countries to ‘deter aggression’ and 

defend ‘key resources and access.’”77

37. Public Market Further Embraces NewSpace Opportunities: “Cathie Wood’s ARK Space 

exchange traded fund (ETF) started trading and provides an easy way for investors to have 

exposure to investments in space. This is the first ETF that gives investors the ability to buy a 

71 “Foreign Investment into a re accelerating despite global economic tensions and restrictions,” Peterson Institute for 

International Economics, July 22, 2021. 72 “OrbitFab’s First Operational Gas Station in Space To Launch In 2021,” SatNews, November 16, 2020. 73 “‘Great Resignation’ gains steam as return-to-work plans take effect,” CNBC, June 29, 2021. 74 “How blockchain can help dismantle corruption in government services,” World Economic Forum, July 5, 2021. 75 “Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek and It Was an ‘Overwhelming Success’,” Forbes, July 5, 2021. 76 “Mental health: why green spaces are vital for reducing loneliness,” World Economic Forum, June 15, 2021. 77 “The Future of Security in Space: A Thirty-Year US Strategy,” The Atlantic Council, April 14, 2021.
78

basket of space companies in one transaction in an ETF and enough capital to make a significant 

impact on capital formation for companies in NewSpace.”78

38. Ramping Up of Politically Motivated Capital: The Chinese government has decided to ramp up 

national champions and creation of clusters of critical industries rather than import products from 

other countries. As a result, the U.S. government should expect the Chinese government to 

accelerate large-scale investments in companies that will seek to compete against Western 

technology leaders. This competition could manifest itself in unexpected ways beyond 

profitability.79

39. Toyota begins building Japan’s first smart city: Toyota begins building Japan’s first smart city 

with live-in robots and automated cars, powered by solar panels and electricity from fuel cells.80

40. National Academy of Sciences (NAS) says active climate cooling should be considered: NAS is 

not yet recommending geoengineering to bounce heat back into space but recommends an 

“emergency plan” be investigated. The report looks at three possible ways to cool the air: putting 

heat-reflecting particles in the stratosphere, changing the brightness of ocean clouds, and thinning 

high clouds. NAS says climate problem has gotten worse since they last evaluated it in 2015.81

41. Russia and China to sign agreement on international lunar research station: China has had a 

series of successful moon mission (the Chang’e series) in recent years. Russia has ambitions to 

return to the moon within the decade. This signal points to potential collaboration that could have

implications far beyond lunar exploration. If nothing else, the fact that Russia is publicizing the 

discussions surrounding a lunar research base is noteworthy. Aerospace should be aware of the 

potential for closer collaboration between China and Russia in civil/scientific space (at least).82

42. Extrasolar Object Interceptor and Sample Return Enabled by Compact, Ultra Power Dense 

Radioisotope Batteries: A 2021 Phase I NIAC winner proposed a design for an extrasolar objectintercepting space vehicle powered by a chargeable atomic battery (CAB) that boasts potential 

capabilities of 5 to 8 kg/kWe and delta V on the order of 100 km/s.83

43. Can we eat our way to global food security for 10 billion people?: “To feed 10 billion people in a 

healthy and sustainable way, we must rethink how we produce and consume food. Regenerative 

farming is key to healing the planet and feeding the world with healthy food. Consumers have the 

power to be part of this transition, by eating plant-rich and diverse diets, and slashing and 

repurposing waste. Informed and empowered consumers send a powerful message to producers 

and policymakers alike.”84 

44. Google Toxicity-Reducing Filter Processing 500M Requests Daily: Benevolence or Thought 

Control? An open-source API created by Google that “uses machine learning models to score the 

perceived impact a comment might have on a conversation. You can use this score to give 

feedback to commenters, help moderators more easily review comments, allow readers to more 

easily find interesting or productive comments” is currently processing over 500M requests daily. 

78 “Cathie Wood Amasses $50 Billion and a New Nickname: ‘Money Tree’,” Bloomberg, 5 February 2021. 79 “Top China Chipmaker Gets State Funds for $2.4 Billion Plant,” Bloomberg, 17 March 2021. 80 “Toyota begins building Japan's first smart city,” Unilad, 14 April 2021. 81 “Science panel: Consider air cooling tech as climate backup,” Los Angeles Times, 25 March 2021. 82 “Russia, China to Sign Agreement on International Lunar Research Station,” SpaceNews, 17 February 2021. 83 “Extrasolar Object Interceptor and Sample Return Enabled by Compact, Ultra Power Dense Radioisotope Batteries,” NASA, 

25 February 2021

84 “Eat like it matters: how your food choices can clean up the planet and feed the world,” World Economic Forum, 23 November 

2020 
79

This technology can be used to reduce the “toxicity” of online content. However, use machine 

learning to process online conversation has the potential downside of steering conversations in 

ways that are potentially unknown (or even advantageous to specific groups). Machinelearning-based content moderation has interesting implications for public discourse.85

45. Pentagon Says STEM Education Deficit is Weakening America: The United States risks losing its 

competitive advantage if it continues with its business-as-usual approach and fails to equip its 

workforce with the education and skills to develop and field complex, cutting-edge emerging 

technologies like artificial intelligence, autonomous systems, machine learning, and 

hypersonics.86

46. COVID-19 Will Double Number of People Facing Food Crises: “The number of people facing 

acute food insecurity (IPC/CH 3 or worse) stands to rise to 265 million in 2020, up by 130 

million from the 135 million in 2019, as a result of the economic impact of COVID-19, 

according to a WFP projection. The estimate was announced alongside the release of the Global 

Report on Food Crises, produced by WFP and 15 other humanitarian and development 

partners.”87

47. X-risk: Race toward artificial superintelligence: A race may develop between major players 

toward artificial general intelligence (AGI) once it becomes clear that AGI’s creation is possible 

with resources available at the time. Safety may be sacrificed at the expense of speed to maintain 

first-mover advantage. Should an unfriendly recursively self-improving artificial general 

superintelligence be developed, it could represent an existential threat toward human survival. On 

the contrary, a beneficial superintelligence could herald a golden age for humanity and its 

descendants.88

48. 3D-printed Lung-Mimicking Air Sac Brings Functioning Bio-Printed Organs a Step Closer: 

Synthetic gels were once a wonder because they are light and provide structural support. 

However, they were static, and this signal suggests a new materials growth technique for 

synthetic gels that flex (a 3D-printed lung is the demonstration).89

49. Demand for autonomous delivery bots increases exponentially: As the result of the unfortunate 

COVID-19 virus, purchase of delivery robots is increasing. Some of these lost jobs may not 

return when COVID-19 is over.90 

50. Gourd cups: Historically, we have manufactured things by molding, shaping, and by removing 

matter. In rare cases, we actually “grow” structures. With the advent of biological understanding, 

can we grow (which is far more energy efficient) useful parts?91

85 “Google Toxicity-Reducing Filter Processing 500M Requests Daily: Benevolence or Thought Control,” Perspective API, 

February 10, 2021. 86 “Report: Pentagon Says STEM Education Deficit is Weakening America,” National Interest, February 7, 2021. 87 “COVID-19 Will Double Number of People Facing Food Crises Unless Swift Action Is Taken,” UN World Food Program, 

April 21, 2020.

88 Bostrum, N., “Superintelligence: Paths, Dangers, Strategies.” University of Oxford, 2014. 89 “3D-printed Lung-Mimicking Air Sac Brings Functioning Bio-Printed Organs a Step Closer,” Science Focus, June 9. 2019. 90 “Demand for autonomous delivery bots increases exponentially,” Futurism, April 10, 2020. 91 “Is this the disposable cup of the future?” Fast Company, July 25, 2018.
80

51. Federal Debt Continues Rapid Increase: Federal debt is over $27T and is currently above yearly 

GDP of $19.5T due to the pandemic. There has been concern that if the debt reaches a point over 

100% of GDP, there could be consequences for the significant amount of debt.92 

52. Accelerated High-Risk Capital Availability: The amount of capital that is available for NewSpace 

and other high-risk endeavors has increased. While there have been significant amounts of capital 

for startups from venture capitalists and mutual/hedge funds in the private market, the amount of 

capital has accelerated from the injection of special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) 

capital into the public market.93

53. Digital Government and the Crisis of Confidence: The trend toward digital government may lead 

to solutions to many of the toughest problems of transparency and corruption. One example is the 

use of public key infrastructure to secure, yet anonymize, the voting process. The implications of 

improved transparency are reduced mistrust and improved likelihood that elections in democratic 

nations can be conducted and certified with high confidence in the results.94

54. Seeing it is not enough—Space Situational Awareness in Congested Context: In the past just 

seeing an object allowed one to avoid collision, but in today’s congested, cluttered, contested, 

connected, and constrained (5 C) space environment, the number of space entities are 

overwhelming the ability to process and select proper courses of action to ensure mission 

resilience. So, what will it take to handle the ever-increasing number of objects to manage? This 

article implies that new processing approaches using narrow AI such as machine learning are 

necessary. Other articles argue for using the swarm concepts used in ant colonies, but this 

requires giving up top-down control that is the hallmark of today’s Space Situational Awareness 

CONOPS. Whatever the answer is, the Department of Defense will be working with the 

Department of Commerce as the Space Venture becomes more commercial and less a military 

domain.95

55. Method of charging electric cars up to 90% in 6 minutes: Research teams have proved for the 

first time that when charging and discharging Li-ion battery electrode materials, high power can 

be produced by significantly reducing the charging and discharging time without reducing the 

particle size. As a result, the Li-ion battery electrodes synthesized by the research team charge up 

to 90% in 6 minutes and discharge 54% in 18 seconds, a promising sign for developing highpower Li-ion batteries.96

56. U.K. firms plan to beam 5G signals to the public via drones: Two U.K. firms plan to beam 5G 

signals to the public via drones that stay airborne for nine days at a time. Antenna-equipped 

aircraft powered by hydrogen would deliver high-speed connectivity to wide areas, in partnership 

with existing mobile operators.97

57. Solar-powered system extracts drinkable water from ‘dry’ air: Researchers at MIT and elsewhere 

have significantly boosted the output from a system that can extract drinkable water directly from 

the air even in dry regions, using heat from the sun or another source.98

92 “Charting America’s Debt: $27 Trillion and Counting,” Visual Capitalist, October 30, 2020. 93 “Special Purpose Acquisition Companies, the Hottest Investment Vehicle,” Bloomberg, December 3, 2020. 94 “A Texas County Clerk’s Bold Crusade to Transform How We Vote,” Bloomberg, September 15, 2020. 95 “Space surveillance technologies a top need for U.S. military,” SpaceNews, November 22, 2020. 96 “Charging electric cars up to 90% in 6 minutes,” ScienMag, October 23, 2020. 97 “5G: Using drones to beam signals from the stratosphere,” BBC, November 3, 2020. 98 “Solar-Powered System Extracts Drinkable Water from ‘Dry’ Air,” MIT News, October 14, 2020. 
81

58. High-density, ultra-low-energy digital computing: “Electronic symmetry breaking by charge 

disproportionation results in multifaceted changes in the electronic, magnetic, and optical 

properties of a material, triggering ferroelectricity, metal/insulator transition, and colossal 

magnetoresistance. Yet, charge disproportionation lacks technological relevance because it 

occurs only under specific physical conditions of high or low temperature or high pressure. Here 

we demonstrate a voltage-triggered charge disproportionation in thin molecular films of a metalorganic complex occurring in ambient conditions. This provides a technologically relevant 

molecular route for simultaneous realization of a ternary memristor and a binary memcapacitor, 

scalable down to a device area of 60 nm2

. Supported by mathematical modelling, our results 

establish that multiple memristive states can be functionally nonvolatile, yet discrete—a 

combination perceived as theoretically prohibited. Our device could be used as a binary or 

ternary memristor, a binary memcapacitor, or both concomitantly, and unlike the existing 

“continuous state” memristors, its discrete states are optimal for high-density, ultra-low-energy 

digital computing.”99 

59. Use of AI to detect your emotion just by how you walk: Possible start of analyzing a person’s 

psychological state via their motion using AI and imaging, which could be a surveillance threat if 

not controlled.

100

60. India tests anti-satellite weapon: Anti-satellite weapons are not limited to countries like Russia 

and China. This is a reminder that countries with missile development capability may be able to 

leverage that into anti-satellite missiles.101

99 Goswami, S., et al. “Charge disproportionate molecular redox for discrete memristive and memcapacitive switching.” Nature 

nanotechnology 15.5 (2020): 380–389. 100 “Can AI Detect Your Emotion Just By How You Walk?” Forbes, March 29, 2020. 101 “India tests Anti-Satellite Weapon,” SpaceNews, March 27, 2019. 
82

Appendix B. Detailed Observations from Executive Interviews 

Members of Aerospace’s Strategic Foresight Team conducted a series of one-on-one interviews with 

NASA’s executive leadership to gather their perspectives on the future, which informed the key themes 

and activities in the roundtables. Eight executive interviews were conducted, as shown in Table 11. 

Table 11. NASA Executive Interview List. 

Executive Role Interview Date

Robert Gibbs NASA Associate Administrator for

Mission Support Directorate (MSD)

29 April 2022

Robert Pearce NASA Associate Administrator for Aeronautics 

Research Mission Directorate (ARMD)

29 April 2022

Kathryn Lueders NASA Associate Administrator for Space 

Operations Mission Directorate (SOMD)

2 May 2022

Jim Reuter NASA Associate Administrator for Space 

Technology Mission Directorate (STMD)

3 May 2022

Dr. Bhavya Lal NASA Associate Administrator 

Technology, Policy, and Strategy (OTPS)

9 June 2022

Dr. Katherine Calvin NASA Chief Scientist and Senior Climate Advisor 10 June 2022

Emily Vansice NASA Office Manager, Office of the Administrator 15 June 2022

Pam Melroy NASA Deputy Administrator 4 August 2022

Prior to the interviews, a letter describing the interview process (Figure 26), including interview goals, 

description, and a list of 13 potential questions, was provided to the interviewees.

During the virtual one-hour interviews, the executives provided answers to questions from the provided 

list, as well as some follow-up questions directed by the conversation. Due to time constraints and 

discussion focus areas, each interviewee answered many, but not all, of the potential questions. 
83

Figure 26. Executive interview description letter. 
84

The key takeaways from the executive interview responses are summarized in Figure 27 through Figure 

33. The key takeaways from the executive interviews, along with information gathered during the 

roundtable events, were used by the Aerospace foresighting team to develop comprehensive alternative 

future scenarios, cross-futures insights, strategic implications, and the key questions for strategic 

planning.

Figure 27. Executive interviews: Top Trends Impacting the Future?
85

Figure 28. Executive interviews: What excites you most about the future of the broader aerospace enterprise?

Figure 29. Executive interviews: What scares you or keeps you up at night?
86

Figure 30. Executive interviews: What assumptions do you believe NASA is making about the future?

Figure 31. Executive interviews: What’s the single most important thing 

you recommend NASA act on in the near-term to best posture itself for a bright future?

Figure 32. Executive interviews: What are the inhibitors?
87

Figure 33. Executive interviews: What is working/not working?
88

Appendix C. Detailed Observations from Internal Roundtables

Seven roundtable exercises were held to gather inputs. Six of these were hosted and facilitated by the 

Aerospace foresighting team, and the intern roundtable was facilitated by NASA interns with Aerospace 

in attendance to observe. To increase the openness of discussion, the roundtables were held per Chatham 

House Rule where no one is allowed to reveal or attribute comments to individuals. In this appendix, we 

detail the internal roundtables (five total), providing data of any online Miro boards (virtual platform used 

during the roundtables) or summarized notes (in-person roundtable) as well as graphic recordings. The 

data presented in this appendix is directly from participants and not the opinions/views of The Aerospace 

Corporation.

C.1 In-Person Executive Roundtable

The in-person executive roundtable hosted about 15 participants over the course of 4 hours, with the 

following high-level agenda:

• Inspirational video

• NASA’s Why (Section 5.1) 

• Dreams and fears activity (Section 5.2) 

• North star identification (Section 5) 

• Trends and disruptors (see Trends and Disruptors in Table 12) 

• Futures web (Section 3.2.1) 

The following are summarized notes and any graphics for exercises not marked as previously discussed. 

C.1.1 Fears

We previously presented the dreams portion of the dreams and fears exercise, so here we detail the future 

fears and current concerns collected from the participants.

• Future fears: 

- Determined five key categories of fears: (1) China, (2) dismantled democracy, 

(3) politicization of science, (4) commercial space disasters, (5) commercial space 

monopolies

- NASA no longer maintains its brand of leading inspirational activities

- NASA becomes irrelevant

- NASA becomes an ill-informed contracting organization

- Commercial industry becomes more advanced than NASA, and NASA is just a distraction in 

the space enterprise

- Worried we give too much leadership to private industry and NASA becomes a funding and 

goals-only organization with no technical expertise or building things in house. What will 

happen if private industry fails, and NASA no longer exists in its current form? What if this 

new organizational structure doesn’t work?
89

• Current concern:

- Many people may not feel empowered to address these fears even though NASA may be able 

to do something to prevent them.

- Industry is, arguably, already faster and more capable than NASA. How can NASA maintain 

a unique role in the space enterprise?

- NASA has become very risk adverse. At some point, NASA lost its renegade approach to 

innovation.

- NASA has lost a lot of its agility

- When a SpaceX rocket had a fire during testing on the launchpad, the SpaceX team took it 

apart and quickly started testing again. If NASA had a fire on the launchpad, it would likely 

take a year to figure out what happened and resume testing again.

• NASA cannot directly control all these fears, but NASA may be able to influence others to 

address these fears

C.1.2 Futures Web

During this roundtable, the participants explored the following three future possibilities in breakouts 

during the futures web discussion:

• VC/NewSpace collapse/bubble pop

• Climate change has been “solved”

• A major world conflict erupts

While many primary, secondary, and tertiary impacts of each of these were explored across the 

STEEPTS, below are the takeaways each group of participants out briefed: 

VC/NewSpace collapse/bubble pop

• “If it were to collapse, pace of innovation could slow down” 

• “What would happen to intellectual property?” 

• “There is more diversity in startup workforces and those workforces would be first to get laid off” 

• “NewSpace provides a lot of public awareness of the importance of space, which could shift 

perception of NASA in positive or negative ways” 

• “This could lead to the loss of U.S. space superiority” 

• “NASA needs to be aware agile and strategic about NewSpace” 

• “Need a proactive communication strategy between NASA and NewSpace” 

• “NASA needs better visibility into health of NewSpace economy—what does NASA do with that 

information?” 

• “NASA would need to protect resilient workforce, so we don’t lose the technical experts that are 

laid off in collapse” 

• “Maybe NASA may support academic training” 

• “NASA could find opportunities out of something that could be generally perceived as a bad 

thing” 
90

Climate change has been “solved”

• “Assume that climate would have to be prioritized over other issues to make this happen” 

• “Society becomes more active in climate issues, which implies there is more individual agency 

and trust in science” 

• “We could apply our solution to climate change to terraform other planets” 

• “Society may be more willing to focus on off-world exploration knowing that we are taking good 

care of our own planet” 

• “There would likely be temporary global unification” 

• “Whoever led the solving of climate change will have a political power advantage moving 

forward” 

• “Other problems won’t disappear while we’re solving climate change and will still exist after it is

solved” 

• “If we don’t solve other problems and only focus on climate change then we’ll still be doing 

poorly as a world” 

• “Seems like commercial space will be very involved in solving climate change. How will that 

impact NASA?” 

• “NASA can be a leader in building trust, education, and agency” 

• “NASA will always need to look at Earth” 

A major world conflict erupts

• “What is the long term? Are there baby booms? Are more engineers pulled into war?” 

• “Is there a growth in biases?” 

• “Are there more families missing members and in need of infrastructure/support?” 

• “There could be a shift to war-related tech (might be bad for NASA)” 

• “Budget scarcity could occur for NASA” 

• “There could be major supply-chain disruption” 

• “Commercial space companies would likely focus more on military” 

• “There would likely be more nationalistic than globalist economies” 

• “There could be the development of green weapons” 

• “There would likely be less privacy but more bipartisanism” 

• “Different people often get elected after a war” 

• “We could lose diversity in certain segments, closed borders, impacted trade” 

• “More things might be made in the United States, maybe especially space things” 

• “We could lose diversity in certain segments, closed borders, impacted trade” 

• “Space related: less trade and lose funding, spur space development in other countries (friends or 

foes?)” 

• “If the conflict takes place in space, the implications in space will be bigger in the long run” 

• “Military technology can often be spun into NASA programs” 
91

Table 12. In-Person Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors. 

Societal Technological Economic Environmental Political

Trends

• Voter fraud 

• Roe v. wade 

• French and Slovenian 

election results 

• Trend towards 

authoritarianism 

• Gender roles and 

identities 

• Superficiality 

• Influencers 

• Work life balance, working 

remotely, hybrid 

workforce 

• #DearWhiteStaffers 

• Recent unionization 

movements 

• Divisive, polarized, trolling 

is everywhere 

• Elon acquiring twitter and 

backlash against 

billionaires 

• Multigenerational homes 

• Teenage suicide rate 

• Metaverse 

• Ethical consumerism 

• Covid and its impact on 

society 

• Social media algorithms 

and their impact on trends 

Disruptors 

• Social media 

• Ranked-choice voting in 

Alaska and other U.S. 

states 

• Censorship and 

misinformation 

• Anonymity and privacy 

• Metaverse 

Trends

• Tele — everything 

• ML/AI — everything 

• Crypto 

• Covid-driven innovation 

• Mars roundtrip in 200 

days 

• Smaller batteries? 

• Green energy 

• Broadband internet for 

all using satellite 

constellations 

• LEO commercialization 

• Dual-use and spin-in 

technologies 

• Cyborgs 

• RNA-based vaccines 

• CRISPR 

• Digital twins for 

everything 

• NFTs

• Trusted autonomy 

• Life extension headed to 

one year per year

Disruptors 

• Advanced manufacturing 

• Material science 

• Sensor technology 

• Air-vehicles replaces 

cars

• Knowledge sharing 

• Bio-manufacturing 

Trends

• Gig-economy 

• Individuals with state-level 

resources 

• Billionaires 

• Wealth disparity (1% vs. 99%) 

• Crypto 

• Crowd funding 

• Sports gambling 

• New space economy 

• DIY 

• Universal basic income 

• Advanced market commitments 

• Scalar manufacturing 

• What will happen to VC in the next 5 

years as we enter a recession? 

• More companies incorporating as bcorps 

• Cyber criminals 

• Block chain 

• Buying and selling personal data 

• Student loans (rates are influenced 

by what the fed is doing and can 

prevent young people from going to 

college) 

• Growing cost of education (trend to 

lower job qualifications in response 

to this, someone earlier today 

mentioned that maybe NASA may 

hire less PhDs, NASA currently has 

a 2.95 GPA requirement for new 

hires) 

• The Great Resignation 

• Democratizing Wall Street 

Disruptors 

• Space VC money could dry up 

(might accelerate monopolies 

because only large companies that 

don’t need VC) 

• Lower educational requirements for 

jobs 

• Machines replacing jobs 

• Automation 

• Global GDP shifting as non-US 

economies becomes more powerful 

and influential 

• Growing potential for geo-political 

conflict

Trends

• Cis-lunar space 

• Space debris, congestion, traffic 

management 

• Virtual/metaverse 

• Climate change 

• Ocean circulation, temperature, 

acidification changes 

• Landfills, waste management 

• Meat alternatives, bioengineered foods, 

• Circular economy 

• Resource limitations (including 

fresh water) 

• Wet bulb temperature (where 

you have health issues due to 

temperature) 

• Pollution 

• Extreme weather events 

• Geological events 

• Species extinction, birds going 

away 

• Ozone problems 

• Microplastics 

• Stocks crashing 

• Climate refugees 

• Green energy/moving away 

from fossil fuels 

• CO2 products 

• Geoengineering 

• Trends towards lower waster or 

zero waste living 

Disruptors 

• Space solar power 

• Space nuclear power 

• NEP 

• Population growth (we are 

currently asking too much of the 

ecosystem) 

• Electric vehicles 

• Solar panels on rooftops 

Trends

• War on the truth 

• Dignity 

• Adversarial 

• New(er) world order 

• Social media 

• Book banning 

• Socialism 

• Extremism 

• Anti-vaxers 

• Requirement’s growth 

• Corruption 

• Voting technology 

• Distrust of the government 

• Roe v. wade 

• Authoritarian 

• Do-nothing congress 

• Immigration 

• Artemis accords and treaties 

• Increase in weapon ownership 

• Voting restrictions 

• Police reform 

• Politization of science 

• Texas (secede stickers) 

• Science on the politization of 

science

• More minority groups in positions 

of power 

• DEI 

• Tension between globalization and 

isolationism 

• Wokeness 

• Cancel culture 

• Unwillingness to compromise

• Fragility of democracy 

• Automation and social media 

• Freedom 

• Normalizing hypocrisy 

• Cognitive dissonance 

Disruptors 

• Intrusion privacy (from data 

collection/targeted ads to abortion 

rights) 

• Texas (seceding) 

• No more compromise 

• Conflict 

• Religious extremism 

• Social credit score
92

C.2 Virtual Executive Roundtable

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted a virtual executive roundtable of approximately 30 participants 

over the course of 4 hours, with a focus on aspirational views for the future per the following agenda:

• Introductions 

• NASA’s Why in 2022 and in 2042? (Section 5.1 and Figure 34) 

• Dreams and fears activity (Section 5.2 and Figure 35) 

• North star identification (Section 5 and Figure 36) 

• Trends and disruptors (see and Table 13 and Table 14) 

• Futures web (see Figure 37 through Figure 40) 

• Reflections for NASA

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, are included in this section. 

Figure 34 contains the executives’ response to NASA mission, “What is the NASA’s Why in 2022 and in 

2042?” etails of this discussion were presented in Section 5.1, and the visual Miro board are included 

here. 

Figure 35 documents the executives’ biggest fears/concerns with respect to the next 20-plus years of their 

roles, organizations, and NASA in general, along with the worst-case scenarios they foresee in 2040. 

Representative comments include “fear of governmental budget cuts for infrastructure at NASA,” “space 

becomes militarized,” “NASA turns into a regulatory agency,” “vision gets smaller,” “U.S. loses position 

of leadership in space exploration,” and “NASA loses public trust.”

Guiding North Stars for the future of NASA were identified as shown in Figure 36. The trends and 

disruptors across societal, technological, economic, environmental, political, threat, and science 

(STEEPTS) factors were identified as shown in Table 13 and Table 14. 
93

Figure 34. Virtual executive roundtable answers to NASA’s “Why in 2022 and 2042?” Miro board. 
94

Figure 35. Virtual executive roundtable biggest fears Miro board. 
95

Figure 36. Virtual executive roundtable North Stars. 
96

Table 13. Virtual NASA Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 2)

Societal Technological Economic Environmental

Trends

• short attention span 

• valuing science 

• understanding the mission 

and vision 

• reduced focus on privacy 

• near term focused 

• equity 

• identity fluidity 

• interconnectedness 

across 

geographical/geopolitical 

boundaries 

• short term employment 

vs. careers 

• polarization 

• distrust experts 

• diversity 

• objective facts 

• how does it impact me? 

• poor education 

• distrust of experts 

• complacent 

• avatar (anonymity online) 

• evolution of human 

consciousness (clearly 

diverging paths) 

• lack of critical thinking 

• disinformation 

• diversity and inclusion 

• youth connection 

• environmentalism 

• diversity, inclusion and 

equity 

• scientific literacy 

• polarized groups 

Disruptors

• social media rumors vs. 

objective facts 

• technical workforce works 

elsewhere 

• gaming 

• digital engineering and 

collaboration 

• war 

• pandemic 

• stereotypes 

• reliability & maintainability 

• discovery of life 

elsewhere 

• NASA embraces DEI and 

is committed to diversity 

(connected to more 

international players, 

effective partners) 

• WWIII 

• racial inequalities 

Trends

• cheap sensors 

• massive amounts of 

data 

• virtual engagement 

(+ and -) 

• AI/Machine Learning 

• Artificial Intelligence 

• social media 

• ISRU 

• autonomy 

• hybrid engagement 

and exploration 

• social media - use to 

engage public 

• hackers/cybersecurity 

• bioengineering 

• BCI (Brain Computer 

Interface) 

• VR/AR enabling 

virtual engagement 

and collaboration 

• merging data with 

different 

fidelity/uncertainty 

• hacking 

• on-board processing 

• ISM 

• emphasis on cost vs. 

reliability

• quantum 

• synthetic biology 

• cybersecurity & 

hacking 

• brain-inspired 

neuromorphic 

computing 

• crypto 

• integrated photonics 

• acceptability of failure 

Disruptors

• carbon capture 

technologists 

• biomimicry

• unexplored quantum 

capabilities 

• alien life 

• hydrogen economy 

• augmentation to 

humans 

• new energy source 

• metaverse 

• AI breakthrough 

• extensive remote 

presence capability 

• use of commercial 

electronics 

• interstellar travel 

• metaverse 

• quantum 

technologies 

• crypto 

• autonomy 

• reliability

Trends

• space start ups 

• significant private space 

programs - in human 

spaceflight 

• increased income 

stratification 

• expanded concept of core

infrastructure (pandemic 

fragility and strength: 

internet, supply chain) 

• space based economy 

• hydrogen economy 

• in-space servicing

• visible linking aerospace 

technologies to terrestrial 

application 

• inflation 

• national debt 

• cislunar economy 

• commercial exploration of 

moon/mars? 

• commercial space 

• carbon tax 

• emphasis on attribution 

capability 

• space tourism 

• concentration of resources 

into too few hands 

• asteroid mining 

• in-space manufacturing 

• monetizing climate 

response efforts 

• Contract Types (fixed price 

vs. cost plus) 

• evolving currency forms and 

transfers 

Disruptors

• significant private space 

programs - in human space 

flight 

• economic distortions due to 

authoritarianism 

• legal 

considerations/machinations 

consume all attention and 

resources 

• economic distortions due to 

extreme climate change 

• economic disparity 

• war-economic implications 

• space commerce 

• gov shutdowns 

• international pressure on 

debt 

• pandemic 2.0 (or 11.0 or 

whatever we're at as a 

species) 

• policy creates commercial 

pull for data (verification, 

attribution) 

• bad economic policy = mass 

resignation

Trends

• drought 

• climate change 

• disproportionate 

environmental 

impacts on groups of 

people 

• population and growth 

of consumption 

• "Not my problem" 

mentality 

• Many NASA 

personnel don't 

believe in 

anthropologic climate 

impacts 

• Space tech to help 

curb carbon use on 

Earth 

• satellite constellations 

• fires 

• conflict (e.g., over 

resources) 

• space debris 

• climate change 

• struck in triage mode 

• disasters more 

comment 

• commercial space 

environmental 

impacts 

• attempts to politicize 

data 

• new job opportunity; 

expert witness 

• risk of overleveraging 

credibility to try to be 

all things to all 

stakeholders 

• freshwater availability

• need to evaluate and 

call out snake oil 

solutions 

• sustainability 

• need an honest 

broker 

Disruptors

• sea-level rise

• asteroid impact 

• apathy 

• rapid damaging 

climate change 

• disasters 

• changes to NASA's 

charter that directly 

impacts role(s) in 

Earth science an 

applications 

• NASA Mars ISRU 

tech dev is discovered 

as useful to mitigating 

Earth's climate 

change 

• ecosystem collapse 

• solar flares 
97

Table 14. Virtual NASA Executive Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 2)

Political Threat Space

Trends

• polarized 

• globalization 

• conflicts 

• fragmentation, loss of trust 

• social media rumor 

overcomes scientific 

literacy 

• disdain for experts and 

expertise 

• space race

• uncivil 

• international competition 

• idiocrasy - politics trump 

engineering 

• authoritarianism versus 

inclusive democracy 

• loss of trust in leaders 

• relationship between 

lobbyists for commercial 

orgs & acquisition process 

• Artemis Accords 

• digital have-nots 

• changes in political 

impacts international 

partnerships 

• NASA as a political tool 

• Politics as a NASA funding 

tool 

• lack of link between 

leadership role and 

competency for specific 

position 

• restrictions on women's 

rights 

• rise of theocracy 

• international cooperation 

Disruptors

• war impacts space 

• working together to solve 

big problems results in 

less international conflict 

• 7 Eves: Neil Stephenson 

• Globalization - all in or on 

the way out? (Collapsing 

Empire) 

• Authoritarianism 

transforms space 

exploration into militarized 

space 

• space war 

• commercial lobbying 

• Artemis Accords = 

increased international 

collaboration? 

• NASA collectively figures 

out how to describe a 

technology development 

and mission future that 

transcends changing 

Executive Branch 

transitions. 

• Humans form tribes based 

on choosing to adapt to 

world as it is vs. what they 

want it to be. global 

reordering based on 

views.

Trends

• war 

• asteroid impact 

• international IP theft 

• orbital debris 

• another pandemic 

• fear 

• extreme climate 

effects 

• space debris 

Disruptors

• discovery of life - 

unifies humanity or 

the opposite 

• Mechanisms to 

communicate based 

on content of ideas 

vs. volume (some 

cool tech way to 

counter propaganda) 

• bioweapons 

• loss of life 

• aliens 

• industry and 

academia figure out 

how to make money 

mitigating climate 

change 

Trends

• expanded exploration 

• orbital debris 

• more small companies 

• living in space

• cyber threats 

Disruptors

• commercial space 

access transition from 

NASAA/Roscosmos 

• discoveries 

(ALIENS??) 

• transformative prop 

system

• transition from USRussia dominance to 

include other countries 

and private business 

• use as infrastructure 

• space land rush 

• accident in space - loss 

of assets or life 

• Mechanisms to 

communicate based on 

content of ideas vs. 

volume (some cool 

tech way to counter 

propaganda) 
98

The group broke into four breakout rooms for the futures web activity. Team 1 looked at the possible 

implications of a collapse of commercial NewSpace in the future as shown in Figure 37. Their key 

takeaways for NASA were the potential fragility to embracing NewSpace wholesale and that NASA can’t 

neglect NewSpace, or international competitors will fill the void. 

Team 2 looked at the possible implications of commercial NewSpace figuring out how to profit from 

climate mitigation as shown in Figure 38 and include the following: (1) NASA could focus more 

concerted efforts on dual use for climate mitigation technologies and partnerships; (2) NASA could help 

evaluating the “snake oil” and highlight benefits that the private sector wouldn’t normally gravitate to or 

recognize; (3) NASA could help bring large-scale new infrastructure together on AI, modeling, wind 

tunnels, amount of data, etc.; and (4) NASA could give the private sector more bandwidth in their needs, 

not just NASA’s cost and low-risk requirements.

Team 3 looked at the implications of the metaverse on NASA as shown in Figure 39 and included the 

following: (1) are people needed in person unless they are building something; (2) can people work from 

the metaverse, assuming security concerns are met; (3) the metaverse could be an opportunistic space to 

gamify things they are trying to use citizen science for; (4) NASA should partner with the commercial 

sector that’s building the metaverse; and (5) there is potential for NASA to be left behind/lose relevance if 

NASA ignores the metaverse.

Team 4 looked at the implications of aliens on the future of NASA as shown in Figure 40. Team 4 key 

takeaways included the following: (1) redirection for NASA in face of a significant discovery in history, 

(2) international cooperation and opportunity for collaboration, (3) opportunity to learn about surviving in 

harsh environments, and (4) a key discovery will take long-term mobilization to address.

The Futures Web, depicted in Figures 37, 38, 39, 40, 50, 51, 52, 53, 75, 76, and 77, is a tool that has been 

developed by The Aerospace Corporation, is subject to copyright, and requires permission or citation 

prior to publication.
99

Figure 37. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 1. 
100

Figure 38. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 2. 
101

Figure 39. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 3. 
102

Figure 40. Virtual executive roundtable futures web - Team 4. 
103

The executives’ biggest takeaways from the roundtable event are shown in Figure 41. 

Figure 41. Virtual executive roundtable event final takeaways. 
104

C.3 Virtual Internal Roundtable

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted a virtual internal NASA roundtable with approximately 25 nonexecutive participants from across the agency over the course of 4 hours, including a focus on aspirational 

views for the future per the following agenda:

• Introductions 

• Trends and disruptors (see Table 15 through Table 21) 

• Mash-ups (see Table 22 and Table 23, Figure 42 through Figure 50) 

• Futures web 

• Imagine If? 

• Implication discussion for NASA

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, are included in this section. 

The activity identifying trends and disruptors in the seven STEEPTS areas are shown in Table 16 through

Table 21. 
105

Table 15. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 7)

Societal 

Trends

• De-urbanization - move of <25% digital workers to rural, suburbs 

• Two-body problem and difficulty for couples within STEM to find jobs 

• Remote work and repurposing of office spaces 

• Inequality is more dominant due to conflicts 

• Growing divide between highly educated and not. 

• Overwhelmed with collaborative tools 

• Me first attitude 

• Globalization of connection / communication 

• Personalization 

• Lack of U.S. STEM talent being educated and hirable within government 

• Space access for all 

• Entitled mindset 

• Increased focus on righting racial/ gender-based inequalities 

• Food supply chain is fragile 

• People differentiating themselves in new ways - Maslow's 

• Difficulty for immigrants to gain visas and U.S. citizenship" 

• Demand for more benefits in the workplace 

• Effective altruism vs personal altruism 

• Blurring between fact/ fiction (misinformation) 

• Increased cost of living 

• More middle class increases 

• Demands for goods and hence impacting earth health 

• Increasing detrimental impact from social media 

• Digital divide becomes more crippling 

• Lack of ability to use collaboration tools which can be used quickly by all agencies and areas 

• Increasing global conflicts and anti-globalization 

• Increased focused on DEIA 

• Overexposure to news and misinformation / "propaganda" 

• Roe vs Wade overturned 

• Addressing the healthcare crisis of long- term diseases 

• Working in a "hybrid" environment 

• Fewer people trained in trades/practical skills 

• Climate change impacts 

• Fear of open science approaches 

• Lack of sufficient funding for science & eng., focus on short term projects (1 - 5 years) and lack of long-term projects 

• Increased social media use 

• Increasing polarization of views and political divisiveness 

• Lack of embracing of diversity within the workspace 

• Science as a gig economy - leading to lack of financial stability thus people leaving the field" 

• Increasing virtual/decreasing in-person connections 

• Virtual relationships in place of face-to-face 

• Rise in disinformation, fringe views in popular culture, and populism 

• Increased commercial space economy 

• Flexibility - work/other 

Disruptors

• AI for farming and food supply chain 

• More personal interaction and less social media and people skills in a virtual environment 

• Competition for scarce essential resources 

• Consolidation of power into political and commercial monopolies 

• AI-driven generative design 

• Focus on commercialization vs. need for research not driven by profit

• Blockchain / digital currency 

• Loss of accessibility for helium 

• Will Elon Musk turn activist at Twitter? 

• Wealth concentration amplifies idiosyncrasies and unintended consequences 

• Surveillance 

• Increase in collisions in LEO -> loss of access to space 

• Legalization of Marijuana and other potential pharmaceuticals 

• Increase access and acceptance of open science practices 

• Backlash on social media/reduced use

• Urbanization leading to increased sanitation, urban heat maps, widening income inequality 

• Wealth concentration 

• Ubiquitous surveillance + effects on personal interactions 

• Lack of acknowledgement of risks and need for regulations for commercial spaceflight 

• Declining birth rates in developed countries 

• Reduced investment in science/research given disinformation campaigns/ sowing distrust in scientific experts 

• Impact of change in reproductive choices on workforce 

• Commercial companies with power equivalent to governments 

• China/North Korea 

• Climate change disruption to society – coastal population centers
106

Table 16. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 7)

Technological

Trends

• The rise of the cell phone 

• Hollideck for immersion teamwork 

• Push for green 

• Addressing climate change with lesson from Mars and Venus 

• Consolidation of platform technologies 

• Deep space exploration 

• AI-driven generative design 

• Biomining 

• Need for better communications with increase data collections 

• Advanced manufacturing, additive manufacturing with new materials in new environments 

• Quantum Technologies 

• Dependance on the cloud 

• Largescale 3D printing 

• Mobility of work force 

• Open-source h/w & s/w design 

• Tech experts leaving Gov't for private industry 

• High efficiency batteries 

• IoT – everything connected to everything 

• Synthetic biology and gene editing 

• Constellations of SmallSats and CubeSats 

• Lab-on-a-chip diagnostic/medical sensors and designer vaccines 

• Nuclear systems for deep space/lunar night 

• New launch vehicles 

• AI/ML - long way to go yet with it and increase in new methodologies 

• Biostructures 

• Increasing application-specific CPU/GPU design – hardware accelerators 

• Most emerging investments in healthcare are around Mental health, Life extension, gene editing/therapies, AI drug 

• discovery, Nanomed 

• Software engineers being poached into industry 

• Bioprinting 

• Commercialization of space 

• LEO commercialization that enables lunar and mars 

• New AI/ML techniques that don't require enormous electrical power 

• Getting lost in collaboration tool alternatives 

• Point-to-point travel without TSA?

• Classiq Announces $25k Classiq Coding Competition to Build the World’s Best Quantum Circuits 

• Superpowered Chinese Lasers Could Soon Rip Open Raw Vacuum | Space 

• Neuralink / Brain on a Chip 

• Space tourism advances 

• Commerce drives exploration and science – to enable more commerce

• Companies better at innovating than NASA 

Disruptors

• Elon Musk to buy Twitter 

• Ubiquitous augmented reality 

• In-space assembly, in-space refueling, and on-orbit robotic satellite building 

• Hyper- local, micromanufacturing 

• Success of bioprinting 

• Space junk in low earth orbit 

• Quantum sensing and communication 

• Virtual assistant for medical and emergency response 

• Commercial mining of lunar/asteroid/etc. resources 

• Limited access to fuel given geopolitical conflicts 

• Growing body parts in the lab 

• Fusion technology/"Free" energy 

• Persistent surveillance of populations 

• Increase in bias due to AI/ML and the implicit biases included in the input data 

• Servicing of old satellites to increase their lifetime 

• Singapore's Meta Bosses launches NFTs raising antibullying awareness - Fibre2Fashion 

• Distributed, diversified power generation 

• Self-assembling/ self-replicating robots and autonomous everything 

• Commercialization of science technology leading to increase cost, decrease in reliability, & loss of in-house expertise 

• Philanthropic funding of future science and technology and climate engineering 

• New work environments - need to embrace of remote work and asynchronous work

• Life extension - immortality projects and private investments 

• Air Taxi Startup, Vertiport Developer Define Aircraft- Ground Ops – IoT World Today - Online EV 

• Economic Disruptions due to space mining 

• AI that generates the better AI

• ZipCharge announces strategic partnerships with ICEE & Graphite, two British businesses, to develop the GoHub 

• Self-aware Computer (SkyNet) 

• Retirements and deaths of those who create specific tech before their knowledge has been transferred 

• Catastrophic orbit debris event
107

Table 17. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (3 of 7)

ECONOMIC

Trends

• DeFi - Decentralized finance 

• Community owned real estate platforms 

• Bull market 

• China investing in social connections and infrastructure 

• Seller's housing market 

• Student loan debt 

• Large companies crushing start ups 

• Decrease in funding for science with respect to GDP 

• Platforms for crowdfunding/tokenization - can be used for good or bad 

• Concentrated wealth, inequality 

• Growing shortage of "menial" labor 

• Blackrock, Vanguard, State Street manage combined $22T (more than half of S&P500) 

• SPACs – Special Purpose Acquisition Companies 

• Focus on profits vs. long term innovation (this is where gov. can really help) 

• Is Roofstock Reputable? An Investor's Information – My Blog (newsconquest.com) 

• Unsustainable inflation in higher ed costs 

• Russia/Ukraine conflict impacts 

• Inflation and inflation’s impact on cost of food 

• Conscientious investing (ESG funds) 

• Border crisis

• Crypto currency

• Drones everywhere 

• Protection of resources and markets 

• Dual-Impact investing 

• Food security and food waste coexisting with food insecurity 

• Rampant theft of IP 

• Increasing debt - personal and government 

• Housing market bubble (unsustainable increase in prices) 

• Supply chain choke points 

• Vertical integration 

• Shortages of high-tech workforce, battle for talent 

• Lack of stability for industry - turnover in companies to maintain specific needed tech and expertise 

• Reduced tenure at jobs 

• Automation eliminates an increasing number of jobs 

• Inability to retire due to inflation or cost of essential services

• COVID pandemic continuation rises in outbreaks 

• Financial literacy (decreasing?) 

• Cost of education as a driver of change in postsecondary education infrastructure 

• China one belt 

• Cap of Civil Servant pay not keeping up with industry standard -> brain drain out of government labs 

• Focus on sustainable farming 

Disruptors

• Average family unable to purchase home – everyone rents? 

• China's growing dominance, and China leverage over U.S. due to U.S. debt held 

• Nomad employees 

• Innovation in currencies, digital dollar, proliferation of incompatible cryptocurrencies 

• Collapse of housing market/stock, market/crypto currencies etc. 

• Funding/creation of Space Force leads to pushback of open science practices (72 hour delay) 

• Removal of tenure within public universities (e.g., Florida) 

• Family planning later in life 

• Death of rural communities and associated brain drain 

• Congress getting most of their income not from their representative duties -> this leads to the pay cap for 

government employees and loss of competitiveness with industry 

• Inclusive work practices for people with children & family care responsibilities, need for paid maternity/paternity leave 

• Gap between developing and developed nations 

• China belt and road initiative - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative 

• Remote work, Telemedicine 

• Resource Scarcity (water, minerals) vis-a-vis growing world population 

• Fewer international students coming to U.S, and fewer international student staying in the U.S. 

• Aging population, working population unable to support retirees (e.g., Japan) 

• Restructuring of higher education to include more of the population 

• Aging workforce within STEM - the lost generation 

• Broad availability of broadband 

• Decline in value of specialization – nurse practitioners, educators coincide with job movement to health sector 

• Global conflict over resource scarcity

• Rise of influence of corporations in global interdependence 

• Lack of highspeed rural internet (compared to mail, electricity, and phone) 

• Complete shift in home "ownership" model to rental/corporate ownership of housing 

• Shift away from traditional university education to more practical/trade education offerings 

• UN SDG awareness mapping with decision making leads to supply chain uncertainties 

• U.S. can't hire enough tech experts domestically
108

Table 18. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (4 of 7)

ENVIRONMENTAL 

Trends

• Farm to Table, localization of food 

• Real science versus science driven by politics 

• Pollution of near-earth space environment 

• Lessen corporate pull in environmental policy

• Minimalism

• Reduced meat consumption - effects on human diet 

• Increase of extreme weather, drought. and water shortages 

• Oil eating bacteria, solar ponds, geoengineering, and unintended consequences 

• Environmental justice 

• Increasingly destructive weather events 

• Lack of sufficient space weather data collection sites (both in space & on ground - Russia & oceans hard to cover) 

• Overfishing, ocean acidification, and invasive species 

• Urban regeneration and “water wars”

• Destruction of forests and wetlands 

• Expansion of human occupancy in bio-diverse land 

• Radiation environment within atmosphere/ionosphere as space tourism expands 

• Overdevelopment without consideration of future water needs 

• Species collapse 

• Renewables causing landfill and end-of-life issues 

• Poor infrastructure for clean water and foods 

• Environment on Moon and Mars -> need to learn more about as humans start to explore these regions 

• Developers without stake in environmental/societal impact of their development 

• Focus on sustainable farming 

• Lack of genetic diversity in food supply 

• Pandemics 

• Lack of available Helium 

• Growing gaps in housing options 

• Sustainable production of meat 

• Misguided reforestation leading to soil erosion, decrease in biodiversity 

• Recycling – is it commercially viable? 

• Trash - where to put it and how to remove it, both in general and nuclear

• Environmental tourism 

• Transition from oil to alternate forms of energy 

• Greater interest in hybrid/electric cars

• Realization of our impact on environment without willingness to take actions needed to address that impact 

• Greater unpredictability in weather 

• Species extinction or relocation to new environments 

• Increased acceptance of plant-based foods 

• Increased mining of rare materials needed for green technologies 

Disruptors

• Stock investments in farmland 

• Community supported agriculture 

• Organic farming and local farming 

• Carbon capture 

• Saturation frequency in certain bands 

• Flora and fauna zone changes due to climate change 

• Genetically modified foodstuffs 

• Scandinavian (Sweden?) law for right to repair 

• Geo- engineering 

• SCoPEx (Aerosols in the atmosphere) 

• Lack of ability to grow enough food 

• Politics misusing science

• Syn Bio and unintended consequences - White House report on ethics 

• Massive refugee crisis due to climate change 

• Reduced interest in outdoor sports due to harsh conditions 

• Free public transit 

• Shift to geothermal energy generation 

• Diversified food production to provide food security 

• Video-gaming medical issues 

• More synthetic foods 

• Do artificial meats reduce emissions or create different problems in the supply chain?" 

• Famine, diseases, sanitation, increased inequity due to climate change 

• Plant-based food alternatives 

• Push back against GMO -> leads to inability to grow enough food for population 

• Long ago removal of rail lines in US lead to dependance on cars and gas – need the reverse to now happen 

• "Blue Arctic" for shipping 

• Opening up of northern latitudes for agriculture 

• Gamification and crowdsourcing climate change solutions in the metaverse 

• Extinction of pollinators (Collapse of food supply) 

• New transportation technologies (Hyperloop) 

• Great pacific gyre (plastics gone amok)
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Table 19. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (5 of 7) 

POLITICAL 

Trends

• Popular vote vs electoral 

• Government increasingly resistant to change and reactive 

• Balkanization 

• U.S. anti-science sentiment 

• Accountability of government funds 

• Lack of support for infrastructure development 

• Rise of authoritarianism 

• Harder to get VISAs, green cards, and citizenship 

• Gerrymandering 

• Term limitations being avoided 

• Increase in line items pushing science in one direction vs. another 

• Lack of bipartisanship 

• Wars

• Polarization 

• US military wants nuclear rocket ideas for missions near the moon | Space - kick start new cold war in space? 

• Prevalence of misinformation drives poor decisions 

• Extreme divisiveness

• Increase in conflict between "left" and "right" (people can no longer be "center") 

• Group think due to politics 

• Lack of public understanding of how important responsible gov't leaders are to our well- being 

• Return to Cold War style environment 

• Elected leaders opposed to compromise 

• Discriminatory refugee policies 

• Funding of politicians coming not from their jobs 

• Another cold war signal – removing buffers is bad – Are Sweden and Finland going from neutral to NATO? - BBC 

News 

• No elected leaders looking at investing in long- term future (20+years) 

• Increasing proxy wars in "3rd world" countries (Ukraine/Syria) 

• Drones make people apathetic to war impacts 

• Alternative facts 

• Growing acceptance of biowarfare / nuclear warfare 

• Decreased decorum in political discourse, driven largely by examples set by media and social media 

• Inability for civil servants to lobby, thus don't get a voice with their representatives and for the budgets 

• Serious issues going to public vote instead of "expert input" 

• Public schools being discussed as option to get rid of

• Funding social programs rather than areas that progress mankind 

Disruptors

• Refugees from war, famine, environment 

• Cyber war 

• Abolishing public schools 

• User-centered design in govt 

• Development of Space Force and the commercialization of space 

• Punishing people for speaking out against unscientific work in the name of free speech 

• Banning books 

• Wars fought with corporate armies (Blackwater) 

• Hackers attacking 

• Increased effectiveness of propaganda 

• Alternative facts 

• Push to have all government agencies create and help develop industries/profits instead of long-term thinking and 

having a source of specific expertise 

• Civil war 

• Jan 6th 

• The media not reporting both sides of a story 

• Disappearance of peaceful transition of power 

• Political strongmen seizing power 

• Chinese growing influence on global politics 

• “Bothsiderism” when one side is small compared to the other (e.g., climate change is real and not man made) 

• Autocracy growing 

• VPNs enable populace to circumvent censorship 

• Eradication of two-party system

• Corpocratic governance 

• Political correctness and how it plays into group think 

• Autocratic elected leaders 

• Lack of maintaining national infrastructures, e.g., power grids

• Politicians funded by and beholden to billionaires
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Table 20. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (6 of 7)

THREAT 

Trends

• Chicxulub asteroid 

• Climate Change tipping point 

• Tsunamis + earthquakes 

• Ecosystem collapse

• “Limited” nuclear war 

• Amazon buying up launches for next 3 years 

• Unsustainable Federal Budgets (large cuts to science and tech in the future) 

• Cyber security 

• Science + technology illiterate public 

• Catastrophic orbital debris event makes region of near-Earth space unusable 

• Decrease in funding for government agencies and funded science 

• Extreme weather 

• Domestic terrorism 

• Food insecurity 

• Satellite constellations in LEO and the Kessler effect 

• Anti-science sentiment 

• Removal of tenure 

• Gene drive: genetic modification designed to spread faster than typical inheritance 

• Nuclear war 

• Water wars 

• Targeting of satellites 

• Dumbing down of primary school education 

• Economic warfare 

• Political dictators 

• Brain drain loss of technical and science expertise 

• Climate crisis 

• Deterioration of IDEA initiatives leading to loss of expertise in the workforce 

• Reduced reproductive health options 

• Long term threat if there is sentient alien life: Sending Earth's location out to reach aliens is a controversial idea space 

• Exodus of medical practitioners from the field 

• Cyberwars 

• Fear of nuclear weapons impacting how nations protect vulnerable nations 

• Ukraine budget impacting Congressional spending 

• Social media bots 

Disruptors

• Cheap high- tech countermeasures to military action 

• Creationism and flat earthers entering into government decision making roles 

• Lack of redundancy of space technology (loss of GOES or national satellites) 

• Freeze on supply chains for US Space and aviation due to cold war 

• World War 3 with China, Russia, etc. on one side 

• Failing electrical grid

• "Insider threat’ - hacking of biotechnology (pacemakers, etc.) 

• Russia using Ukraine war 

• A couple of collisions in LEO 

• Blight drastically reduces food staple crop (rice and corn) 

• A >Carrington event 

• Persistent low- level armed incursions 

• China dominating space 

• Gene-targeted viruses 

• Climate change releases viruses from permafrost thaw that we are not prepared for and MRNA techniques unable to design to 

• Mega constellations impacting comms/earth science 

• Another pandemic 

• Extraterrestrial object (high speed/no forewarning) 

• Nationalism 

• CubeSats mitigating satellite safety
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Table 21. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (7 of 7) 

SPACE 

Trends

• Competition for control access and use of space environment 

• Some accomplishments of China in Space surpassing US 

• EMP attacks and war 

Disruptors

• Terraforming 

• Breakthrough Starshot/Interstellar travel 

The roundtable participants were divided into three groups for the mash-up activity where each team 

identifies three signals and brainstorms the combine impact and implications of the signals. Three rounds 

of the mash-up activity were performed by each of the three teams. The summarized results noting the 

three signals used for each mash-up activity and the key takeaways for the nine mash-ups are shown in

Table 22 and Table 23. The Miro boards from Team 1’s three mash-up rounds are shown in Figure 42

through Figure 44. The Miro boards from Team 2’s mash-up activities are shown in Figure 45 through 

Figure 47. Finally, the Miro boards from Team 3’s mash-up activities are shown in Figure 48 through 

Figure 50. 

Table 22. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable - Mash-up Summary (1 of 2)

MashUpNASA Internal- Virtual

Signals Takeaway

Mash-Up 

#1 

1. Geoengineering the atmosphere: NASA is not yet 

recommending geoengineering to bounce heat back 

into space but recommends an "emergency plan" be 

investigated 

2. Increased High Risk Capital: The amount of capital 

that is available for high-risk endeavors has increased 

3. Cooling Upper Atmosphere: Long- term data on the 

mesosphere, the layer 30 to 50 miles above the earth’s 

surface, has revealed that it is cooling and contracting

Unintended consequences of potential meddling with 

Earth's climate/atmosphere; could NASA perfect 

geoengineering off-world and bring it back? 

Mash-Up 

#2 

1. 3D- printed lung-mimicking air sac brings functioning 

bioprinted organs a step closer 

2. New Study Highlights the link between greater green 

space and reduced loneliness 

3. Philanthropic funding of future science and 

technology

Ensuring NASA and other public entities remain 

relevant, as capabilities, funding, and infrastructure 

building shift to outside parties. Important to maintain 

public interest, don't let everything go to commercial, it’s 

a balance. 

Mash-Up 

#3 

1. Extracting water from dry air: Researchers at MIT 

and elsewhere have significantly boosted the output 

from a system that can extract drinkable water directly 

from the air 

2. Deep space imaging, combining 8 radio telescopes 

of the event horizon of a blackhole 

3. Increase use of 3D printing houses, buildings & 

structures

One key capability/technology can change the art of 

what's possible (e.g., thriving in the desert, living offworld, or looking deeper into space than ever done 

before) 
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MashUpNASA Internal- Virtual

Signals Takeaway

Mash-Up 

#4 

1. Federal debt continues to rise 

2. SettleMint is exploring the use of blockchain 

technology to reduce corruption in the public 

procurement process 

3. Russia, China to sign agreement on international 

lunar research station 

Increasing US debt is putting NASA in a tough spot; 

NASA seen as a luxury not a necessity - not seen as 

needed to survive (cancer research, military) - loss of 

funding means less likely to make it to the moon - 

wouldn't be able to be at the forefront of norms of 

behavior in space; would need to rely on partners - 

Russia/China could drive diplomacy norms 

Our response won't be another Apollo like program - try 

to tap into entrepreneurial nature of US - driven by 

commerce; science done will be driven by what has a 

high ROI 

(not beneficial for NASA or commerce - lots of 

discoveries critical to commercial haven't been through 

commercialized efforts)

Mash-Up 

#5 

1. A race may develop between major players toward 

artificial general intelligence (AGI) once it becomes 

clear that AGI's creation is possible with resources 

available at the time 

2. Researchers Devise Card Game to Create a more 

Inclusive Experience for Awareness of Urban Planning 

Research for Kuwaitis 

3. People are starting to come from more nontraditional educational backgrounds - e.g., Coursera to 

augment knowledge instead of going back to university 

setting

NASA collecting so much data - can't actually process in 

a meaningful way 

Table 23. Virtual NASA Internal Roundtable - Mash-up Summary (2 of 2)

MashUpNASA Internal- Virtual

Signals Takeaway

Mash-Up 

#6 

1. Ben Klein, Sandia’s lead clinical psychologist, said 

he has seen “a rise hostile interactions and verbal 

conflicts between colleagues,” which may be related to 

an increase in virtual work 

2. Increase in hiring of IT support from North Korea 

with increase in virtual work opportunities 

3. NASA, Intuitive Machines Announce Landing Site 

Location for Lunar Drill. Impact: Resource mining in 

space will raise new diplomatic concerns and lead to 

claim- staking in space

Cyber-physical investments may be a priority 

Need to find better ways to manage IT and cyber 

security risks

Mash-Up 

#7 

1. Ben Klein, Sandia’s lead clinical psychologist, said 

he has seen “a rise in hostile interactions and verbal 

conflicts between colleagues,” which may be related to 

an increase in virtual work 

2. Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek And It Was An 

‘Overwhelming Success’

3. World's first living robots can now reproduce 

Ethical issues with respect to reproducing robots 

Mash-Up 

#8 

1. 3D-printed lung-mimicking air sac brings functioning 

bioprinted organs a step closer 

2. Neural net can detect leaky pipes 

3. High Density, Ultra- low- energy digital computing

Potential to solve a problem of today that is hard to 

solve

Mash-Up 

#9 

1. Iceland Tried a Shortened Workweek And It Was An 

‘Overwhelming Success’ 

2. Commercial suborbital flights allow for rapid travel 

3. Ukrainian Refugees sent to "foster homes" not 

refugee camps - given some period of time in new 

country

Opportunity to learn and benefit global society 
113

Figure 42. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, 

Round 1 mash-up. 

Figure 43. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, 

Round 2 mash-up.

Figure 44. Virtual internal roundtable Team 1, 

Round 3 mash-up.

Figure 45. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, 

Round 1 mash-up. 
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Figure 46. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, 

Round 2 mash-up. 

Figure 47. Virtual internal roundtable Team 2, 

Round 3 mash-up.

Figure 48. Virtual internal roundtable Team 3, 

Round 1 mash-up.

Figure 49. Virtual internal roundtable Team 3, 

Round 2 mash-up.
115

Figure 50. Virtual internal roundtable - Team 3, Round 3 mash-up.

Following the mash-up activity, the group was split into three breakout rooms for the futures web activity. 

Team 1 explored the near- and far-term possibilities associated with scaling inclusivity and equity in 

exploration, happening at scale as shown in Figure 51. Key takeaways for Team 1 included the value of a 

diversity, equity, and inclusion (DEI) expert to assess the impact of this scenario; identified threats that 

stand in the way of achieving this future state; and identified opportunities that exist to seed better DEI 

results in business, STEM, and social media. 

In the futures web activity, Team 2 explored the near- and far-term possibilities associated with the 

commercial enterprise overpowering the government as shown in Figure 52. Key takeaways for Team 2 

included (1) many potential threats if commercial took over; (2) NASA would need to lock in utility in 

commercial market (some semblance of what we do now, development, de-risking, oversight); (3) look at 

semiconductors (commercial market) and develop new technology together with commercial because it’s 

so expensive (could NASA replicate and be that center?); (4) environmental threats from unregulated 

commercial activity are enormous—would need regulation and impact science observations, emissions 

from launch, threat from debris and collision issues, and put ground-based astronomy out of business; and 

(5) need unique leadership so both NASA and commercial can do what they do best.

In the futures web activity, Team 3 explored the near- and far-term possibilities associated with a 

breakthrough in interstellar spaceflight as shown in Figure 53. Key takeaways for Team 3 included (1) 10 

years is too short timeframe—need to think long term, (2) dramatic change to NASA’s goals and 

outlooks, and (3) NASA not necessarily the driving player/leader—industry and other nations have big 

roles.

The last activity in the virtual internal roundtable was the “Imagine If” free write describing the 

participant’s organization’s best possible self in a future state with customers, core values, purpose, 

attributes, and inspirations as shown in Figure 54. The answers to the second part of the exercise 

described the participant’s organization in different aspects, focusing on types of problems it is solving, 

uniqueness, core capabilities, innovation, and internal coordination with other organizations. 

The roundtable participants documented their big takeaways from the event, shown in Figure 55, 

answering the question “What are some key differences between today’s state and the future state that 

will require big change?”.
116

Figure 51. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 1. 
117

Figure 52. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 2. 
118

Figure 53. Virtual internal roundtable futures web - Team 3. 
119

Figure 54. Virtual internal roundtable "Imagine If" free write. 
120

Figure 55. Virtual internal roundtable big takeaways. 

The virtual internal roundtable session was graphically facilitated by Trent Wakenight of Blue Beyond Consulting, a visual communication 

consultant who supports complex technical projects with real-time illustrated story maps. The three graphic recordings are shown in Figure 56, 

Figure 57, and Figure 58. 
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Figure 56. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 1 of 3 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting).

Courtesy of NASA
122

Figure 57. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 2 of 3 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting).

Courtesy of NASA
123

Figure 58. Virtual internal roundtable graphic recording 3 of 3 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting).

Courtesy of NASA
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C.4 Virtual Early Career and Employee Resource Group (ERG) Roundtable 

The Aerospace foresighting team hosted a virtual NASA early career and ERG roundtable with 

approximately 35 participants from across the agency in a 2-hour session. The roundtable focused on 

aspirational views for the future per the following agenda:

• Introductions 

• Directed questions

• Trends and disruptors (STEEPTS)

• Mash-ups 

• Key takeaways for NASA

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, are included in this section. The first activity asked the participants to answer, “What is the most 

exciting thing happening in space in 2022 and in 2042+?” The responses are shown in Figure 59. 

Figure 59. Virtual early career and ERGs roundtable directed questions. 

Trends and disruptors were identified for societal, technological, economic, environmental, and political 

areas of impact as shown in Table 24 and Table 25. 
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Table 24. NASA Early Career and ERGs Virtual Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 2)

Societal Technological Economic

Trends

• Belief that alternative solutions must 

be all- encompassing or perfect to 

be valid 

• Distrust in science/scientific 

community 

• Stigma around Mental health & 

Neurodiversity in workplace 

• Regular Use of AI 

• Us vs Them Mentality - lack of 

intercultural competency 

• Fear of change due to tech

• NASA not encouraging 

geographically diverse applicants 

• Dearth of knowledge about variety 

of careers available at NASA 

• Ideological Polarization 

• Kids want to be TikTok influencers, 

not scientists 

• Generational miscommunication, 

driven by social media 

• Nomadic lifestyle (van life) 

• Normalization of overworking (long 

hours) and not taking vacations 

• Aligning career with orgs that share 

values 

• careers vs jobs (loyalty to 

companies) 

• Misinformation campaigns 

• Younger generation willingness to 

leave unsatisfactory jobs 

• People increasingly seeking morally 

aligned jobs 

• Waiting/deciding not to have kids 

• Cancel culture 

• reliance on technology 

• Diversifying representation 

Disruptors

• Improved access to healthcare via 

telehealth, but economic disparity in 

the technology needs it requires 

means the access isn't for everyone 

• Mass forced unemployment 

(automation) 

• The "Lying Flat" movement 

Trends

• high technology treated like seasonal 

fashion (buy iPhone 1200) 

• Cloud storage 

• Digital media replacing physical media 

• Self-driving vehicles 

• Smart homes/internet of things 

• Digital warfare 

• Data Sprawl 

• NST just announced quantum-resistant 

encryption 

• Regular use of AI 

• Autonomous vehicles 

• Devices that use natural language 

processing 

• Genetics (including editing) 

• Right to repair 

• Open science 

• Polarity between convenience and 

environmental impacts 

• Drones 

• Wearable technologies 

• Everything is a streaming service 

• Augmented reality 

• Electric Vehicles 

• Open-Source Coding 

• Importance of IT security 

• 3-D printed organs 

Disruptors

• Free-to-use technology shifting to paidmajority disrupting 

government/education/institutions with 

little funding 

• "Laboratory on a chip" biomedical 

devices 

• Implants (cybernetic) 

• Gene editing is now in the human-trial 

startup space for moderate risk 

treatments (cholesterol) 

• Discontinuation of disruption of cloud 

services

• Open-source software authors 

removing access to their code and 

breaking the internet (reddit users 

disrupted the stock market) 

• "Land" in the metaverse is being sold 

for absurd prices 

• Right to repair 

• Hacking of critical infrastructure 

• Modular Open Systems Approach 

(MOSA) for Space

Trends

• Toyota owns 50% solid state battery 

Patents (EVs) 

• Stagnant wages 

• Launch provider bubble

• Shift to subscription model for all 

things 

• NFTs(and the death thereof?) 

• Not saving for retirement 

• retail stock investors coordinating 

stock sales

• Job markets/lack of factory positions 

• What does virtual ownership 

mean/grant rights to? 

• Stolen intellectual properties 

• Renting vs Owning (struggle to buy 

houses, cars) 

• Universal paid parental leave 

• Universal basic income 

• College/university debt becoming 

untenable 

• Wage theft 

• Smaller satellites (micro, mini, nana 

size)

• Gentrification of urban areas 

• Healthcare tech investment has 

quadrupled in 3 years (mostly directto-consumer) 

• Inflation 

• If possession in 9/10 of the law, what 

does "virtual possession" look like? 

• Discrepancies in funding resources 

between NASA centers - some 

projects can afford more tools than 

others 

• Increased access to space (decrease 

in cost per kg) 

• What does ownership mean for 

virtual things? 

Disruptors

• Housing Prices 

• Large companies buying all the 

homes to make them Airbnbs and 

other shady practices 

• Exponentially expensive world 

relative to stagnant government pay 

• Paying employees living wages 

• Startup companies going around 

laws and regulations 

• Gender equity at work, beyond and 

including pay 
126

Table 25. NASA Early Career and ERGs Virtual Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 2)

Environmental Political

Trends

• It’s getting Hot in here (have you been to the South?) 

• City Planning to mitigate/adapt to climate change 

• Recycling capability not growing as fast as waste is 

produced 

• Negative attitude or apathy towards environmental issues 

both as individuals and corporations 

• More interest in public transportations (bullet trains) 

• Global warming impacting the food supply chain 

• In situ resource utilization in Space, "live off the land" 

• Carbon Capture tech 

• Indoor farming 

• Alternative fuels 

• space debris (tracking and mitigation) 

• Shifting recycling responsibility to consumers in place of 

increased scrutiny on industry 

• PFAS

• Moon to Mars (tech that works for both environments) 

• Nuclear for space power and transportation 

• Light Pollution 

• Satellite constellations ruining astronomy 

• Greenwashing 

• Green energy - solar, wind 

Disruptors

• Bacteria/fungus that can eat plastic 

• Will the next pandemic come from the thawing Antarctic? 

• Other countries could choose not to accept US trans 

• Space junk clean up 

• Will Methane increase exponentially and irreversibly due to 

the thawing permafrost 

• Dust Bowl 2.0 

• Servicing / on-orbit spacecraft maintenance 

• Discovery of new species/organisms in space 

• Making climate change the #1 priority, especially in public 

policy 

• New recycle technology 

• Following Gen Z's example of a singular focus on the 

environment 

• Plant-based diets 

• Lab grown (plant-based) meat 

• Human habitation on another planets/moon 

• crypto mining 

Trends

• Weakening of Chevron deference leading to decreasing 

gov't regulation 

• Deep fake interviews of politicians are now convincing 

• Expanding cooperation necessitating new legal 

frameworks 

• Decreasing trust in government 

• Claiming existing territories 

• Economic income inequality is now at 1900 levels 

• Erosion of right to privacy 

• mass migration to escape oppressive policies 

• Embracing both competition and collaboration 

• Independence in terms of space access (i.e., not relying 

on other countries) 

• We are less divided than media pretends we are 

• China 

• Russia 

• Worldwide trend towards nationalism 

• Budgets and advertised launch based on election terms 

• Corporate influence in DC / citizens united implications 

• Desire for overhaul of police/justice system 

• Changing administration affecting NASA vision 

• Term appointments Congress controls headcounts 

• LEO as a battleground 

• Ownership of Moon/Planetary territory 

• Artemis Accords 

• The future of Space Force and how it relates to NASA 

long term 

• Motivation to return to on-site work for political reasons 

• New and emerging space agencies 

Disruptors

• Claiming a new territory (like on the moon) 

• EPA vs West Virginia 

• AI being used to filter out job candidates (ostensibly for 

cheating) 

• Dobbs vs Jackson Women's Health 

• capping terms of Supreme Court Justices 

• If we lose democracy will representatives from NASA 

states have the power to get us funding? 

• Competition with heavy lift launch vehicles 

• Can NASA maintain its bipartisan status esp. if we push 

the needle on social issues? 

• 10-year agency budget cycles 

• January 6, 2022 

The group was divided into three breakout rooms for two mash-up rounds. The summary of the mash-up 

activity including signals used and key takeaways is shown in Table 26. In round 1, Team 1 used the 

following three signals: ownership of virtual items, four quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms, and 

Google’s AI system’s developed feelings. The key takeaways were that NASA needs a plan on how to 

approach AI before this could happen, including reassessing what ownership means in this century. For 

round 2, Team 1 looked at the following three signals: decreasing ability of government to regulate, 

politics on Earth impacting partnerships in space, and space debris. The key takeaway was having 

NASA’s own house in order impacts international relations. 

In round 1, Team 2 looked at the following three signals: NHTSA regulations no longer require cars to 

have steering wheels or pedals, less than 7% of adults have good cardiometabolic health, and super 

worms that love eating Styrofoam. The key takeaway from Team 2, round 1 was that having autonomy 
127

buys you more time, but it can be used for active pursuits like health and not just leisure. For the round 2 

of the mash-ups, Team 2 looked at the following signals: Tesla absolving itself of liability/responsibility 

of its autonomous systems when you sign the terms of agreement, Ukraine war lays bare the fragility of 

the food supply chain in the developing world, and MIT tapping into million-year geothermal energy 

source. The key takeaway from this mash-up was as autonomy gets linked into more and more critical 

industries, the question of liability could have life-or-death consequences for both individuals and nationstates. 

In round 1, Team 3 looked at the following three signals: the next dust bowl is on the way, implants to be 

used as an ID/wallet, and extinct parrots making a comeback in Brazil. The key takeaway from this mashup were the need for more sustainable ways to source food and need for building off-world—could be 

opportunity to engage with citizen science and agriculture innovation. Also, how might NASA’s futures 

ethics protocol evolve for enhancing biospheres for human sustainability? In round 2, Team 3 used the 

following signals: is “lying flat” China’s next big import to the world, women in STEM need more than a 

law (only 29% of the STEM workforce is female), and new sources of raw materials will stabilize 

economies but destabilize geopolitics. The key takeaway from this round 2 mash-up for Team 3 was 

“who’s controlling the resources will drive behavior on Earth and in space and it’s important to 

understand your partners and competitors.” 

Table 26. NASA Internal Early Career and ERGs Roundtable Mash-Up Summary. 

MashUpNASA Internal Early Career and ERGs - Virtual

Signals Takeaway

Mash-Up 

#1 

1. Ownership of virtual items 

2. Four Quantum-Resistant Cryptographic Algorithms 

3. Google's AI Systems developed feelings 

We need to have an idea of our approach to these 

technologies before they happen and not in reaction 

Mash-Up 

#2 

1. NHTSA regulations no longer require cars to have 

steering wheels or pedals 

2. Less than 7% of adults have good cardiometabolic 

health 

3. Super worms that love eating Styrofoam

Having autonomy buys you more time, but it can be 

used for active pursuits (like health) and not just leisure. 

Mash-Up 

#3 

1. The next dust bowl is on the way - society will need 

food, not engineers 

2. Implants to be used as an ID/wallet 

3. "Extinct" parrots making a comeback in Brazil 

Need more sustainable way to source food, needed for 

building off-world; could be opportunity to engage with 

citizen science and agriculture innovation! 

Mash-Up 

#4 

1. Decreasing ability of government to regulate

2. Politics on earth impacting partnerships in space 

3. Space Debris 

Having our own house in order impacts international 

relations 

Mash-Up 

#5 

1. Tesla absolves itself of liability/responsibility of its 

autonomous systems when you sign the terms of 

agreement. 

2. Ukraine War lays bare the fragility of the food supply 

chain in developing world. 

3. MIT tapping into million-year geothermal energy 

source. 

As autonomy gets linked into more and more critical 

industries, the question of liability could have life-ordeath consequences for both individuals and nation 

Mash-Up 

#6 

1. Is "Lying Flat" China's next big import to the West?

2. "Women in STEM need more than a law" - while 

50% of women are graduating from colleges, only 

approximately 29% of the STEM workforce is female 

3. New sources of raw materials will stabilize 

economies, but destabilize geopolitics 

As autonomy gets linked into more and more critical 

industries, the question of liability could have life-ordeath consequences for both individuals and nation 
128

The event concluded with the participants summarizing their biggest takeaway from the roundtable event, 

as shown in Figure 60. 

Figure 60. Virtual early career and ERG roundtable takeaways. 

C.5 Virtual NASA Intern Roundtable (Led by NASA)

Following the format of the Aerospace-led roundtables, a NASA employee organized and led a 2-hour 

virtual roundtable with over 30 NASA interns in attendance and Aerospace representatives observing. 

The stated goal was to “advise NASA leadership on mission priorities and studies/strategy for NASA’s 

future.” The data collected during the intern roundtable and summarized in this section is provided 

courtesy of NASA and included in this report since it was used to inform the study results. 

The roundtable workshop was kicked off with two polls asking, “What excites you about the future (40+ 

years)?” and “What scares you about the future (40+ years)?” with the results summarized in the word 

clouds shown Figure 61 and Figure 62. 
129

 

Figure 61. Virtual NASA intern roundtable Word Cloud 1. 

Figure 62. Virtual NASA intern roundtable Word Cloud 2. 

Questions were asked, including “Why exploration excites you?” with responses of “thought of the 

unknown and “it’s a beautiful thing.” Fears were expressed about political instability and NASA’s ability 

to execute all its plans in an environment of instability. 

The futures web exercise was centered around the question “What do you think the future looks like?” 

The futures web is shown in Figure 63 and includes the following:

Courtesy of NASA Courtesy of NASA
130

• “Aging workforce in STEM: for a group of people who work at NASA and who stayed in roles,

there is no upward mobility for people in their 30s and younger with a difficult environment for 

knowledge transfer.” 

• “Training, development, and onboarding: suggest hybrid onboarding. Maybe VR and AR can 

help in onboarding process. Other suggestions include holograms for virtual/hybrid meetings and 

meetings in 3-D worlds. The way we work and learn how to do work should be next future step in 

working world.” 

• “Theoretical warp drive: technically it doesn’t violate relativity. Explore feasible warp drive 

technology.” 

• “Economics: the pay is lower at NASA. How to keep people working at NASA and not leaving 

for commercial?” 

• “Potential for us to move beyond scarcity economics: adjusting how we go about distribution of 

resources, move away from energy and food scarcity and strive for equity for all.” 

• “Environmental: biopunk—like solar punk—looking at genetic modification with technologies 

that preserve the environment but makes it more habitable.” 

• “Innovation is both good and bad: Focus on technological innovation for climate crisis, although 

we understand so little about ecosystems that we are likely to develop technologies that make it 

worse.” 

• “Extraterrestrial versus Earth: as government supplies more money, there is a dilemma about 

fixing things back on Earth versus space exploration.” 

• “Independent space colonies: theory that once these bases become self-sustaining, they need no 

foresight from people back on Earth. Would they distance themselves from cultural heritage? 

Colonies more hyper religious—current political forum—colonists would be more conforming to 

some political ideology and create it from scratch.” 

• “Certain countries will be at the mercy of other countries who control space resources: space is 

high barrier to entry and some countries would not have same equities.” 

• “Humans to Mars: on tentative tract to Mars, political climate can delay or derail us from getting 

to Mars, need checkpoints to get there.” 

• “Political side is biggest area of risk to Mars; we have enough money.” 

• “Learn about the ethics of putting weapons in orbit or on the moon. Possibility that weapons in 

space in next 5 to 10 years will militarize space.” 

• “Treaties about weapons in space (old treaties). If political scenarios change, then need to make 

changes to treaty.” 

• “NASA and government are behind in regulating and monitoring technology.” 

• “Roundtable chat is pessimistic about future.” 
131

• “Post-it notes are more positive about the future.” 

• “Send broad swath of society to space, not just billionaires.” 

• “Technological innovation in space technology benefits society in other ways, but why focus on 

finding ‘accidental’ or roundabout solutions when we could be addressing actual problems 

directly.”
132

Figure 63. Virtual NASA intern roundtable futures web. 

Courtesy of NASA
133

The group separated into three breakout rooms to answer one of the following questions:

• Group 1: What are the top three trends impacting the future? Response shown in Figure 64.

• Group 2: What assumptions are being made about the future and what are the implications if 

these assumptions are wrong? Responses shown in Figure 65.

• Group 3: What is the most important thing you recommend NASA act on in the near-term to best 

posture itself for a bright future? Responses shown in Figure 66.

Figure 64. Intern roundtable futures question 1. 

Figure 65. Intern roundtable futures question 2. 

Figure 66. Intern roundtable futures question 3. 

Courtesy of NASA 

Courtesy of NASA Courtesy of NASA
134

A futures web group activity regarding ideas for NASA’s goals, impact, and collaboration with external 

partners was performed with an excerpt as shown in Figure 67. Comments included the following:

• “Lead on how to make NASA a great place to work—realistic working conditions in the space 

industry. Lot of non-government space agencies somewhat exploiting their workers and pushing 

them hard. Easy way for NASA to lead by example—get a lot done and not treat your people this 

way.” 

• “Push technology in areas where commercial isn’t.” 

• “Do things that have value but not done by commercial.” 

• “Tie NASA to futuristic ideal identity, effect of TV and marketing.” 

• “Focus more on technical side of NASA.” 

• “Get young people to think about science—coolest logo and most positive government 

organization. Putting [a] man on moon is more important achievement over something like 

developing GPA.” 

Figure 67. Intern roundtable futures web.

The intern roundtable concluded with a futures web activity on “Your Ideal Future” as shown in Figure 

68. Participants were rethinking the future office and future workspace characteristics. Some advocated 

for collaborative space like NASA Langley’s redesign with more of a university feel. Several complained 

about asbestos and old facilities at Marshall Space Flight Center. 

Courtesy of NASA
135

Figure 68. Intern roundtable “Your Ideal Future”. 

Courtesy of NASA
136

Appendix D. Detailed Observations from External Roundtables

Seven roundtable exercises were held to gather inputs. In this appendix, we detail the two external

roundtables, providing data of any online Miro boards (virtual roundtable) or summarized notes (inperson roundtable) as well as graphic recordings. To have an open discussion, the roundtables were held 

per Chatham House Rule where no one is allowed to reveal or attribute comments to individuals. The data 

presented in this appendix is directly from participants and not the opinions/views of Aerospace.

D.1 Virtual External Roundtable

The virtual external roundtable hosted approximately 40 participants over the course of 4 hours, with a 

focus on aspirational views for the future per the following agenda:

• Trends and disruptors (see Table 27 through Table 33) 

• Diving into exploration and discovery

• Mash-ups

• Futures web

• Reflections for NASA and closing remarks

The roundtable exercises, summarized notes, and any graphics, including the visual collaboration Miro 

boards, are included in this section. Additional details about each exercise can be found in the graphic 

recordings.

D.1.1 Key Trends and Disruptors

The trends and disruptors identified by participants across the STEEPTS are shown in Table 27 through

Table 33. The “Threat” and “Space” categories were covered within the other categories and thus these 

categories were not focused on during the roundtable. 
137

Table 27. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (1 of 7)

Societal

Trends

• The "Great Resignation” 

• Broadening wealth gap 

• Transfer of hard assets to digital 

• Property rights no longer seen as inalienable - aka giga economy 

• Reckonings with systemic inequities 

• Aging populations 

• Media Advertising/Presence Twitter/social media as news– citizen journalism 

• Intentful inclusivity

• Expanding surveillance states 

• Remote telework 

• Space is the new battleground 

• Broad availability of information 

• Democracy as we knew it, is at risk "shifting family structures -fewer young people having children 

• Urban/rural divide 

• New frameworks for understanding gender identity 

• Personal liberties vs common good (e.g., COVID vaccinations) 

• Longer lifespans 

• Misinformation 

• Video for everything 

• Breakdown of trust 

• Agency vs apathy 

• Rising feeling of being unsupported - can't count on help 

• Increasing political divisions 

• The "fake news" problem 

• Communication desired from anywhere 

• More brainstorming via Zoom 

• Work from anywhere 

• Constant presence – life shared via social media 

• Global supply chains 

• Indigenous futurisms/futurities are now a global aspect of thinking and creating 

• Intergenerational and communal living arrangements 

• Space as a feasible destination for non-astronauts 

• Work from home 

• What is truth? 

• Finding new solutions to old problems, like water, clean energy, housing, vertical agriculture... 

• Loss of critical thinking and questioning 

• Challenges with verifying identity in the digital world 

• Global cooperation in the face of global problems 

• NASA as the most influential brand in the US Govt 

• Distributed workforce 

• Increasing power to the worker 

• Profession with purpose 

• Polarization around trust in science 

• Felt uncertainty about the future 

• "Empowering local communities to combat externalities 

• Higher productivity 

• Increasing automation, autonomy and changing labor markets 

• Inflation 

• Changing consumer preferences (Rise of Gen Z) 

• Improved access to technologies, particularly mobile 

• Desire for passion & meaning in work

• Bi-modal society impacts ability to get anything done! 

• Surveillance 

• Sustainability and renewable energy 

• Generational gaps in values around everyday constructs (consumerism, health, etc.) 

• Expectation of better health 

• Tension around trust in companies 

• Polarization of society in accepting and understanding science

• Broad scale denial of critical issues like climate change 

• Equity and inclusion 

• Gig work and/or/vs longer term roles

• Lack of privacy 

• Lack of community 

• Rise of activist corporations & leaders 

• Truth is based on digital ecosystem

• Space science is great platform for improving science literacy 
138

Societal

Trends continued

• Increasing interest in exploration and big questions 

• What does it mean to society that habitable planets number in the billions in our galaxy? 

• No plan B for planet Earth 

• Space exploration could once again unite us 

• Can we survive our technological adolescence? 

• Land Back movements for tribal bands, including National Parks in the U.S. and Canada 

• Trends continued 

• Younger people wanting experiences more than owning things. Thinking of themselves as world citizens 

• Addiction to sanctimony is revealed as a genuine drug high worse than heroin 

• How can we get scientists and policy makers on the same page? 

• Indigenous sciences globally becoming a strong component of all sciences globally 

• Anxiety/mental health 

• Social isolation 

• Apollo and Hubble correlate with rise in religious non- belief 

• Space as the new frontier 

• Police violence George Floyd

Disruptors

• AI and machine learning 

• Decline of tier 1 cities due to housing affordability 

• Mass violence events 

• Robotics everywhere commercial space travel 

• Demand for "companion pets" up during pandemic 

• Economic volatility 

• War in Ukraine!! 

• Climate change is the ultimate disruptor 

• Looming infrastructure problems 

• Age of Anxiety 

• Increased reliance on AI, less reliance on "human intelligence" 

• Pandemic memory and/or amnesia 

• Distrust in science 

• Political unrest 

• NATO expansion 

• Cyber-attacks by Russia on commercial space communications 

• Energy prices and inflation 

• Potential outcome of capitol riots inquiry 

• VR-mediated addictions 

• Biotech touching everyday life 

• Gender-pay gap closed 

• Fear of the future 

• Mental health epidemic 

• Elon Musk to buy Twitter 

• The big lie!

• 5G (always connected) 

• Restoration of the concept of ‘facts’ 

• Mental health decline

• Human rights violations 

• The newest generation being raised with eyes open to the things listed above 

• Fossil fuel process driving renewable energy 

• Global connectivity 

• Negative perception of the future 

• Food insecurity from multiple sources 

• Housing market bubble 

• Zooming!!!! 

• Half the eyes are open, but half are closed 

• Is USA democracy ending? 

• Inflation 

• AI/ML can help with too much data 

• Virtual interaction and engagement 

• Rise of populism 

• Orbital debris - huge problem! 

• Too many big lies! 

• Rising importance of metadata
139

Table 28. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (2 of 7)

Technological

Trends

• Cross-platform media 

• Internet of things changing to internet of autonomy 

• Increase in energy storage & distribution 

• Reduction in launch costs 

• Connectivity between devices 

• mRNA 

• Bitcoin 

• Virtual reality 

• Global ISPs from Space (LEO) 

• Intelligent teaming of machines 

• Global web access

• Exponential growth 

• AI as a critical tool 

• Ability to explore exoplanets 

• Nuclear propulsion 

• Cold fusion 

• Racial and gender bias in AI 

• Availability of space transportation as a service

• Understanding ethics in applied AI 

• False AI scams

• Advances in quantum computing 

• Renewable energy 

• Synthetic biology 

• Alpha Fold: machine learning for biology (protein structure from sequence) 

• AI as new manager of failed interactions (e.g., airplane boarding) 

• CRISPR based mods for (Real) affordable space 

• Brain machine interfaces to enhance workflow 

• China- led surveillance tech as new social paradigm (facial recognition, voice recognition, phone- tracking, DNA, etc.) 

• Space Access

• AI/ML 

• Crowd sourcing / funding 

• Deep fake technology 

• Robotics as anti-loneliness tool 

• From global to fragmented Internet 

• Decreased time- to- market for new technologies 

• Increased crowding of LEO 

• satellites" 

• CRISPR 

• Long distance learning ASYNCHRONOUS vs SYNCHRONOUS (tech to enable meetings/classes) 

• Comms arrays block out the night sky 

• CRISPR 

• Deep fake technology and identity impersonation 

• Easier access to software development with no- code, low- code tools 

• Metaverse 

• Persistent communication 

• Smart Grids

• Neurostimulation to cure depression 

• Digital personal assistants/friends 

• Smart home technology 

• NFTs

• Cloud computing 

• Crypto 

• Smaller sensors 

• Augmented biology 

• Computer coding decolonization! 

• Too much data 

• Real time custody tracking of most things on Earth’s surface 

• Online learning 

• Incompatible cloud solutions 

• Integration of technology with biology 

• Ability for constant surveillance (of anything) 

• Jessica Hernandez's Fresh Bananas: Healing Indigenous Landscapes through Indigenous Science and many more 

• 3D printing is making major changes in industry and design community 

• Robotic Automation
140

Technological

Trends continued

• Precision agriculture 

• Digital health assistants 

• Collaborative Digital Environments 

• Decentralized internet 

• Moving beyond technology 

• Decentralizing power generation 

• Not prepared for Carrington Event! 

• Sentient AI 

• Improved predictive modeling w/AI/ML tools 

• MS Teams

• Vulnerability of technology 

• Technology has advanced much faster than humanity. Can humanity catch up? 

• Space as a platform for better understanding Earth 

• Exploration, not colonization 

Disruptors

• Water crisis unresolved 

• Access to AI furthering 

• Economic disparity 

• Applications of cloud/ML/AI/GPU to deep technology 

• Automation of EVERYTHING 

• CRISPR based mods for space travel 

• 300x increase in sensitivity of quantum sensors 

• New forms of AI-inspired art

• Weapon development 

• Rich kids excelling in sports thanks 

• to bio- hacking 

• Smaller, simpler tracking devices 

• AI (that takes jobs) 

• Machine learning 

• Decreased cost & access for biotechnology experimentation 

• Impact of recession on slowing of investment in technology 

• mRNA vaccine first in class 

• Weaponized privacy 

• Carbon sequestration event 

• Creating extensive orbital debris 

• Quantum computing 

• Decentralized internet 

• Metaverse 

• Solving human basic needs through technology 

• Wearable EEGs

• Man- machine interfaces to augment remote medicine 

• Nuclear war 

• Designer babies 

• More private citizens having meaningful space experiences –this will significantly grow in 5 years 

• Major world power(s) disconnect from global Internet 

• Indigenizing sciences

• Early Alzheimer's biomarkers 

• Synthetic biology-based computing and storage 

• Supply chain issues

• Quantum encryption 

• Unleashing human time for non- work pursuits 

• Using cobots to unleash human time 

• Undersea fiber compromised // more resilient undersea fiber 

• Safe, effective human germline editing 

• Gold standard longevity biomarkers 

• Connected brains to create augmented intelligence 

• Potential for increased global community via communications networks 

• Rediscovering" traditional tech (agriculture techniques, wayfinding, fishery management, etc.) 

• Gaining control of human longevity 

• Cheaper compute! 

• RSA/encryption broken 

• Permanent presence on lunar surface 

• Transition to DNA-based computing 

• Successful agriculture on Mars 

• Vertical farming 

• EEG brain printing for encryption
141

Technological

Disruptors continued

• The digital divide

• Voice- assist to improve inclusion 

• CRISPR based mods for space travelers 

• DNA databases reflect global population 

• Synthetic biology bioweapon 

• Water security 

• Artificial wombs, decoupling fertility, age, productivity 

• More private citizens having meaningful space experiences – this will significantly grow in 5 years 

• The use of solar power in African nations 

• Desalination of water 

• Increased access to solar/renewables 

• Lack of unified space philosophy/narrative for the human species. Seems we are extending into space the very things that 

 caused problems on earth: war, conquest, nationalism, exploitation of resources, and so on. 

• Integrated digital assistants 

• Digital divide closed

• Artificial general intelligence demonstrates basic sentience 
142

Table 29. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (3 of 7)

Economic

Trends

• Liquidity tightening 

• Bell weather stocks decreasing (e.g., Elon dumping Tesla shares) 

• SPACs trading <$2 = delisted 

• Increasing global connectivity 

• Companies making it out of valley of death 

• Space architecture integrating commercial (buy before creating) 

• Access to early-stage venture 

• Hustle culture/ informal jobs 

• Return to Oligarchy+ feudalism 

• Company merges

• New 'ores' – asteroid + magma 

• Private & commercial investment in Space (tourism, services, ISRU, etc.) 

• Bitcoin 

• Inflation 

• Membership & subscription services 

• Actual affordable space access

• Increased wealth and income disparity 

• Lack of COVID vaccine in the third world 

• Wall St Spends more$ on (predatory) AI than all academia 

• Crypto crash

• Neomedieval city states 

• Brands as markers of political identity 

• Global Crypto Implications 

• Is it possible for Public Teachers to make money $??? 

• Bimodal economic society 

• Full spectrum of Equity Market funding opening up to space companies 

• Ghettos and gated paradises 

• Recession leading to short term thinking, less money for deep tech 

• Collapse of taxation structures that support public infrastructure 

• Rising interest rates 

• Rich get richer 

• Delay of retirement 

• Crashing Stock Market!! 

• Volatility of crypto currencies 

• Disappearance of the middle class

• Widening gap between rich and poor 

• Cryptocurrency 

• Housing inventory remains low 

• Transparency around climate change 

• Uneven impact of climate change on low-income communities 

• Stock Market not tied to most Americans' well- being 

• US losing its stronghold globally 

• Tens of billions will be invested in developing and operating the outer space yachting industry and community - NASA can 

help with advancing tech and we will need a Space Guard Service - like Coast Guard 

• Response to globalization dependency 

• Investment horizons lengthen 

• User-centered digital markets generate revenue 

• While many say space is integrated fully in the general economy, there is still a need to actual integrate with what makes a 

 local economy actually succeed. My research of the case of Arizona is just one example that it’s not so black and white!" 

• Maximizing stakeholder return instead of shareholder return

• Nation- states reorganizing economic alliances 

• Rising cost of fuel 

• Accelerating “fintech” experimentation cycles

• US dollar no longer the assumed global currency 

• Wealth disparities >French Revolution 

• Venture capital increase to women, POC, outside USA 

• Pension funds misaligned to longevity 

• Impact of inflation on R&D 

• Impact of inflation on science 

• Sustainability of business model vs. immediate return 

• Growing interest in 4-day work week 

• Increased federal spending on research is critically needed

• How does bankruptcy affect subsequent economic opportunities? 

• Critical need for increased federal spending on basic research 

• Create tourist “economy” for moon and Mars that is centered on environmental protection, a la the national parks and 

 wilderness areas on Earth. The great national parks of the desert southwest in the USA are a perfect example. Treat the 

 and Mars as objects of aesthetic/ecological/scientific appreciation, not lands to degrade
143

Economic

Trends continued

Danger of knee- jerk reactions to economic volatility 

• Rise of Universal Basic Income 

• Expansion of access to stock markets 

• Sustainability from inception 

• Expansion, modification of definition of capitalism 

• What are religion's economic effects? 

• Economy as a political scare-tool 

• Rising cost of higher education 

• Growing student debt 

• Supply chain distributions continue 

• Rise of at cost generic pharmaceuticals 

• Insurance no policies longer / less available in high- risk areas 

• 

Disruptors

• The 2022 Global Recession 

• Value of cryptocurrency dropped 10% over the last weekend 

• Near peer opponents controlling global economy (e.g., Russian oil critical to global economy) 

• 1 Gallon of gas costs more than a whole chicken at Costco 

• Overpowered shareholders 

• Gov (global) overregulation of just about everything 

• Gov (global) under regulation of what matters (like what is actual news, and true) 

• Pseudoscience, with loud voices and vast reach 

• Climate and environmental justices merging together 

• Nation- states are replaced by city- states, DAOs

• NO lunar 'resources' other than a little ice 

• The thin line between what is commercial and personal 

• Reemergence of labor unions 

• Fear from the media 

• Stakeholders vs Shareholders 

• Terrorism enters the metaverse 

• Increasing privatization of space 

• Asteroidal ores crash metals markets 

• Risk for space activities can't be quantified --> inability to open up financial markets 

• More real estate is sold in Metaverse than in real world

• New currency markets 

• Are oil execs making a mistake by maximizing profit (huge gas prices) and potentially driving people towards electric or do 

 they see the writing on the wall and are trying to squeeze the last dimes out of their energy monopoly? 

• Competition for young thinkers in the global south 

• Economic warfare between "naturals" and "augmented" 

• Local sourcing 

• University degrees no longer valued 

• Hiring based on metaverse based interviewing, portfolios, CVs 

• Pushback against return to in- person 

• Median human lifespan to 120 years 

• Cognitively enhanced take over global markets 

• Cognitively enhanced take over virtual markets 

• USD replaced by digital currency as global currency 

• Model established to monetize stewardship of natural resources vs. consuming them 

• Marginalized start selling their stem cells, in addition to organs, for food 

• Artificial wombs decouple age, fertility, and earning potential 

• Rise of B- corps
144

Table 30. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (4 of 7)

Environmental

Trends

• Global Warming 

• Ocean acidification 

• Water shortages 

• Changing climate 

• Patterns 

• Solid/plastic waste 

• Ocean currents 

• Forrest fires

• Loss of biodiversity 

• Extreme weather events 

• Reframing our understanding of "invasive species" 

• Increasing space debris 

• Return of a “real" solar maximum 

• Wildfires 

• out West 

• Desalination 

• Monsanto - GMOs, patent holdings, herbicides/pesticides 

• The "Green Revolution" 

• Impact on monoculture/factory farming 

• Control/exploitation of public lands for private profit 

• Our continued reliance of cement 

• Shift of heavy industry to space 

• The expansion of the Sahara Desert 

• Controlling nature instead of working with it 

• Glacial animal population decrease 

• Bee population decrease 

• Calling out Greenwashing 

• Mining of rare-earth elements for technology (even Green Tech) 

• Decoupling nature from food production 

• Climate change refugees 

• Effective batteries using common elements 

• Reflexivity (bubbles in equity and RE markets) 

• Electric vehicles 

• Small nuclear reactors gain wide acceptance 

• Melting polar icecap 

• Genetic attention on heritage breeds 

• Active intervention in coral decline 

• Innovation in satellite monitoring of GHG emissions by private actors and NGOs using the narrative of “radical” transparency 

• More frequent pandemics due to ecological disruptions 

• Golden age of environmental RESTORATION

• Scaled desalinization efforts make water readily accessible to 75% of world's population 

• Transformation of energy grids based on renewables 

• Drought in the western United States 

• Impact of animal protein consumption on environment 

• Earth as a Biosphere/Spaceships as Biospheres 

• Environmental justice being implemented Indigenous tribal bands 

• The mastodon returns! See Steward Brand w/ Long Now 

• Rise of YIMBY- ism (Yes in My Back Yard) 

• Greater move to climate adaptation vs prevention of 2-3°C rise

• Transforming stewardship knowledge from indigenous communities, traditional jobs like small farming 

• Understanding methane vs. CO2

• No point building habitats on Moon or Mars but for exploration 

• Extreme weather events – fires and floods 

• Mars is NOT plan B for Earth 

• Arctic as major ocean trade route... leading to increased pollution 

• Accelerated evolution due to climate change 

• Fragility of wild/human interfaces 

• Development of economic models for environmental protection 

• Climate change may define humanity's L variable [Drake equation - ed.] 

• Many people who visit Earth orbit have the Overview Effect & bond with the planet. Return to work to improve Earth 

 environments 

• Farming north of the Arctic circle

• The resources of Spaceship Earth are being depleted! 

• Will lithium & other rare minerals mining for solar and other forms of "green energy" end up becoming the new uranium 

 mines? 

• Language around space being part of earth ecosystem or having intrinsic value 

• Living things functioning as sensors 

• Fire
145

Environmental

Trends continued

• Legal case in US federal court that NEPA act (environmental impact assessment) should apply to satellites 

• Space monitoring for environment equates to seismic monitoring for nuclear nonproliferation 

• Youth focus on improving/saving the environment 

• Tar sand pollution 

• Mass extinctions 

Disruptors

• High salt concentrations due to salt dumped from desalination 

• ‘Verticulture’ in urban and exurban areas 

• Tissue culture + veg Meat 

• Academia welcoming scholactivists embedded in climate/environmental justices that includes communities' alliances 

• New shipping routes based on melting polar ice 

• Large-scale environmental terrorism 

• A million people die in a single climate-related event 

• WW3

• Rewilding of strip malls 

• "Outside the seawall" 

• Farming north of the Arctic Circle

• Seed banks stored on moon to preserve genetic diversity 

• Democrats control 3 branches of government 

• Republicans control 3 branches of government 

• Permaculture 

• Energy independence at the household level 

• Engineered microbes eating plastics 

• Mosquitoes eliminated 

• Climate mitigation 

• Rocket with nuclear payload blows up on launch 

• Space tourism increases the number of humans who see the Earth from Space and become guardians of the planet 

• Climate refugeeism 

• CRISPR and synthetic bio used to bring back many extinct organisms 

• Continued large- scale deforestation 

• Increasing reforestation 

• SEASONAL migration to avoid extreme heat 

• CRISPR based modifications for humans to tolerate A 

• Augmented organs to expel excessive heat 

• CRISPR and engineered plants that are more efficient at photosynthesis 

• Environmental education 

• Capturing water from rain and melt – regenerating water tables 
146

Table 31. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (5 of 7)

Political

Trends

• Strategic competitor/peers declining 

• Relationship of Russia versus the rest of the western world 

• PRC continued pursuit of Taiwan 

• Developing a coalition: China's Space Belt and Road Initiative 

• US Ideological wars: abortion, gun control, immigration, vaccination, etc. 

• Democracy without science literacy is unworkable 

• How about a person you really want to vote for? 

• Lack of personal property ownerships leads to eventual removal of borders 

• How do we build an educated electorate? 

• Polarization 

• Continued reliance that societal problems need political solutions 

• Hard to believe that in the 21st century we're still invading other countries 

• Government led economy 

• A sensible new political party 

• Declining respect for US authority globally 

• Ranked-choice voting 

• Cultural bubbles 

• Confluence of political identity and employment 

• UK Brexit has been great for UK space agenda 

• Basic insecurities give rise to more authoritarian govts 

• Lobbying & inside influencers 

• Politics controlled by financial interests not voters 

• Return to 6000 years of feudalism 

• Celestial wayfinding rather than the usual imperialist exploitation of the commercialization of space 

• Everything is for sale 

• Rise of DAOs (decentralized autonomous organization) 

• Politically motivated "attacks" on technology companies 

• Decrease in faith in US Gov 

• Personal freedoms vs. societal needs and benefits 

• Rising nationalism in many countries 

• Ignorance of political candidates globally is frightening! 

• Increased selfishness 

• Tech billionaires fund new extremist politicians who will promote complete deregulation and the erosion of any corporate tax 

 base 

• Middle East states remake their image as they fund space ventures 

• DAO = decentralized autonomous organization - these exist on the blockchain 

• US moves to a popular vote 

• Russia removes oil from economy – crippling Europe 

• Greed as a critical political driver 

• US increases oil production making Putin impotent 

• Western hemisphere version of NATO

• Role of China in global politics 

• 2- party system = no progress 

• Larger executive control over policies = harder to long- term plan for government agencies when the president switches 

 parties 

• Politization of the CDC, OSHA, EPA, consumer protection, etc. 

• The influence of religion

• African countries recognizing south, south cooperation may be better than listening to the narrative that the west will help 

 them develop space capacity (instead of the current trend of working with Russia/China) 

• Travelers as political prisoners 

• Decline of US influence globally 

Disruptors

• Russian invasion of Ukraine 

• Restore 'fact' as a factor 

• States secede from US 

• State laws conflicting with federal laws 

• "Bass Pro Shopville" as noncoastal city state based on employment + political affiliation 

• Selfish individualism 

• Excessive use of vetoes 

• "Jan 6" riots and continued challenges to US democratic System 

• WW3

• Less reliance on politicians to solve global challenges 

• EU expansion 

• Liberal democracies as innovation havens 

• NATO Article 5 triggered 

• Disruptors continued 

• More civilian activism

• China takes over as global superpower 

•
147

Political

Disruptors continued

• Social media groups of BIPOC communities moving forward with shifting our current political terrain towards activism that is 

 welcomed globally 

• DAOs develop their own constitutions, digital currency, and raise security teams to defend their virtual and real-world assets 

• Decentralized democracies arise that cross nation-state borders 

• Media- based disinformation 

• Lack of neutral perspectives in the news 

• Education as positive disruptor 

• Challenge disinformation with wagers 

• Significantly growing African youth interest in space is relevant as Africa will remain the most youthful region over the 

 coming decades. This matters for the cure African Union space agency 

• US Civil War v 2

• Puerto Rico & DC become US states 

• Multiple new countries joining NATO 

• More unified action in LATAM

• Synthetic/hybrid AGIs begin to run our government 

• Algorithms used to solve critical problems in infrastructure, energy, education, food 

• Thriving activism movements 

Table 32. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (6 of 7)

Threat 

Trends

• Increase in # of space capable nations and NGEs

• Russia dirties LEO to ruin it for US & Europe (ASAT) 

• The West dissolves into internal strife 

• Sabotage of the commons: LEO + GEO + shipping straits 

• Imaging satellites dazzled to make inoperable 

Disruptors

• Alien invasion and subsequent enslavement of humanity 

• Deep fakes created by twinning humans whose biometric data has been stolen during interactions with the Metaverse 

Table 33. Virtual External Roundtable Trends and Disruptors (7 of 7)

Space 

Trends

• Space <> Sustainability 

• Low-cost Earth return (down mass capabilities) 

• Artemis Accords 

• Middle East countries now funding space initiatives and research (UAE, Saudis) 

Disruptors

• New startups in the space debris cleanup space 

• Space-based sustainability spins off to Earth (recycling, water, farming/ag) 

• Tourism = diving seas of Titan and Europa 

• Nokia gets lunar 5G contract 
148

D.1.2 Diving into Exploration and Discovery

The participants were shown a video showing graphics on potential future space exploration and asked to 

react. Below is a summary of their responses:

• “We’re a species of discoverers.” 

• “I wasn't scared, but I got goosebumps and thought about all people in our species who are not 

explorers and just want to have [food to] eat and have babies and have a warm place to sleep; 

easy to take the feelings of our [space] community and map that erroneously onto everyone else.” 

• “Exciting, but sadness; idea of leaving everything behind, thinking about connection, bringing 

things along made me feel better; exploring all these beautiful new places but leaving behind a 

beautiful place as well.” 

• “Filled with promise, made me wonder about practicalities; what can we promise people alive 

today and what is the strangest wanders they can expect to do and what if the timeline goes out 

beyond a generation; will they want to participate?” 

• “Mixed feelings; evokes exciting but also sadness and trepidation; do we want to go down this 

path and want to change our society?” 

• “Balance between inspiration and sadness; curiosity to explore is wonderful, but we're never 

satisfied with what we have and what does that mean for society long term?” 

• “Fundamental thing that makes us human is our curiosity; hope that we can do exploration 

without exploitation.” 

• “All the problems of the world find their way to Hawaii, despite being thousands of miles away 

from populated continents. So, wouldn't they also find their way to space, to a space station, to a 

space colony on Mars?” 

• “How will the artists of the future represent space and its vastness that integrates humans into it 

rather than alienates us from it?”

• “Lessen the focus on why it’s important to be human. Maybe our place in the system/universe is 

more important than the definition.” 

D.1.3 Mash-Ups

The group broke into three breakouts, and each did two rounds of the mash-up activity where multiple 

emerging disruptors are combined to think through new possibilities. The mash-up summary, including 

signals used for each round and key takeaways are shown in Table 34. The mash-ups Miro boards from 

each team are shown in Figure 69 through Figure 74. 
149

Table 34. Virtual External Roundtable Mash-up Summary

Mash-Up External Roundtable - Virtual

Signals Takeaway

Mash-Up 

#1

1. Sri Lankan shifts to 4-day workweek w/out pay cut, Fridays to 

grow crops in their own backyards

2. Corporate Executives encouraging their employees to take 

psychedelics to encourage creativity, team building, sense of 

purpose, mental health

3. Russia attacked commercial satellite (ViaSat), created space 

debris during Ukraine conflict

Human enhancement through 

psychedelics has been proven, 

should space-faring selection 

process be reconsidered and 

perhaps required?

Mash-Up 

#2

1. What if President set to put 100 people on moon by end of

2020s?

2. Nuclear push for green energy and space

3. Spanish regional airline ordered regional airships (blimps), 

doesn't involve passenger jet

In the face of ecological 

responsibility, is no-rocket, no 

pollution, slow airships/spaceships 

more socially acceptable?

Mash-Up 

#3

1. Development of Orbital Super Yacht community - space 

yachts that are owned by powerful families

2. College enrollment at undergrad level is down but at the

graduate level is up

3. Increasing privatization of space - Space Act of 2015; give 

corporations right to mine moon and Mars for minerals for green 

tech

No key takeaway documented.

Comments included “Rising 

inequality” and “Talent needed at 

graduate level” plus others

Mash-Up 

#4

1. Proliferation of global satellite networks - all humans would 

have access to knowledge and education

2. Rwanda spent $1B on OneWeb project; Rwanda filed for 

300k satellite license from ITU

3. New study highlights the link between greater green space 

and reduced loneliness

No key takeaway documented.

Comments included “access to 

connectivity is global in nature,” 

“education due to internet access is 

a great thing for women in 

particular,” and “green space and 

loneliness is Western-based point 

of view.”

Mash-Up 

#5

1. Robotic Process Automation - taking over human jobs

2. Saudi Space Agency funding neuroscience experiments on 

ISS 

3. Cancer drug study with 100% becoming cancer free

Combination of robotics, AI, and 

pharmacology bringing new forms 

of development and shift in utilizing 

scarce resources to new resources 

in space

Mash-Up 

#6

1. In face of globalization, 2 decades of insurgent localism 

(combating colonization, protests of telescope on Mauna Kea)

2. Will JWST correlate with rise of religious non-belief in US and 

world as the Hubble Space Telescope did?

3. Elon Musk acquisition of Twitter and removing restrictions on 

voices

Social media polarizing with 

common voices - push back to 

maximizing diversity
150

Figure 69. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 1 mash-up Round 1.

Figure 70. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 1 mash-up Round 2.

Figure 71. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 2 mash-up Round 1.

Figure 72. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 2 mash-up Round 2.

Figure 73. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 3 mash-up Round 1. 

Figure 74. Virtual external roundtable 

Team 3 mash-up Round 2. 
151

D.1.4 Futures Web

Three topics were explored in the futures web tool in breakout group: the future of research and 

development, the future of being human, and the utopian space settlements and off-world governance. 

The future of research and development web can be seen in Figure 75. The key takeaways from this group 

were: (1) whether we can create incentives for broader societal impact of research and development, (2) 

the ability of science to communicate its goals is key to advancing outcomes/endeavors, (3) budget cycles 

must help determine approach (USG, private sector, other nation-states, etc.), and (4) crowdsourcing/

leveraging more creativity will be key in the future.

The future of being human web can be seen in Figure 76. The key takeaways from this group were: (1) 

rapid advancement of technology and mankind’s ability to understand and move forward with it will 

impact the definition of being human, (2) there will be an expansion of the definition of what it means to 

be human—beyond one word of human, (3) another definition of humanity is on the horizon—ETs, (4) a 

future that is human-directed evolution and breaks definition, (5) society needs to build in adaptability, 

and (6) adventure of space not human-centric but idea of creating a second biosphere off Earth—sending 

whole ecosystem into space, not just humans.

The utopian space settlements and governance web can be seen in Figure 77. The key takeaways from this 

group were: (1) what future value (currency and ideology) systems will determine everything, (2) there 

are two ways [space settlement] could happen: required because Earth is unfixable or utopian/aspirational, 

and (3) how do we move to exploration and wealth “for all” of humanity—this would mean moving from 

unhealthy competition to constructive collaboration.

D.1.5 Reflections for NASA

The takeaways from the virtual external participants are shown in Figure 78. 
152

Figure 75. Virtual external roundtable futures web on the future of research and development. 
153

Figure 76. Virtual external roundtable futures web on the future of being human.
154

Figure 77. Virtual external roundtable futures web on utopian space settlements and governance.
155

Figure 78. Key takeaways from the virtual external roundtable participants.
156

D.1.6 Graphic Recordings

The virtual external roundtable session was graphically facilitated by Blue Beyond Consulting, a visual 

communication consultant who supports complex technical projects with real-time illustrated story maps. 

The five graphic recordings are shown in Figure 79 through Figure 83. 
157

Figure 79. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 1 of 5 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting, courtesy of NASA).

Courtesy of NASA
158

Figure 80. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 2 of 5 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting, courtesy of NASA).

Courtesy of NASA
159

Figure 81. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 3 of 5 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting, courtesy of NASA).

Courtesy of NASA
160

Figure 82. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 4 of 5 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting, courtesy of NASA).

Courtesy of NASA
161

Figure 83. Virtual external roundtable graphic recording 5 of 5 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting, courtesy of NASA).

Courtesy of NASA
162

D.2 In-Person External Roundtable

The in-person external roundtable hosted about 23 participants (2 were unable to attend due to travel 

issues) over the course of 8 hours. A detailed listed of attendees and their biographies is available in Table 

40. The roundtable had the following high-level agenda:

• Exploring changing broader global environment (STEEPTS Section D.2.1) 

• Signals mash-ups (shown in graphic recordings)

• Defining the possibilities of the future of discovery and exploration

• Defining the possibilities of the future of space discovery and exploration

• Sketch the future of discovery and exploration (sketches not included here)

• Insights and discussion

Following are summarized notes and any graphics for exercises not previously discussed.

D.2.1 Exploring Changing Broader Global Environment

The key trends and disruptors identified by participants across the STEEPTS are shown in Table 35

through Table 39. 
163

Table 35. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (1 of 5)

SOCIETAL 

Trends

• Inaccurate reporting/storytelling/lazy journalism 

• Bias in searches and digital ecosystem 

• “Bleeds it leads, Offends wins” 

• Alternative realities, smart people believe this! 

• Disembodied decision making (algorithms, don’t represent broader society, subject to bias) 

• Splinternet: geopolitical ties, institutionalized tech standards no access to alternatives, control =post-citizen 

• Individual energy use on the rise 

• General cultural homogenization across the globe (perhaps counter to the stovepipes). Subgroups now exist 

everywhere 

• Disillusionment with higher education. 4-year colleges in the future? 

• Great resignation, 110% drop of post-doc since 2018 

• Different identities 

• Labor unions (Amazon, Starbucks) 

• Aging populations, lower birth rates 

• Shortage in specialized careers 

• Generational disconnect between what they want, cultural, work, etc. 

• Disappearance of middle class 

• Germany building coal fired, shutting down nuclear 

• Geographic shift (in US specifically) due to COVID, Rent, Ecological factors 

• Pandemic caused natural fascination shift, but also artificial. Need an app to make sourdough. Tension: inclusivity 

vs. isolation 

• Rise of non-binary, change of family architype, gender dynamics, and its backlash, reverse on abortion decision 

(different globally, China very different for example) 

• Absence of responsibility 

• Leveling of expertise. Influencers have a weight. 

• Hypocrisy is a lifestyle

• Narrowing in understanding in how things work outside of your experiences 

• Risk and reward, examples: vaccines, overspecialization hurting societal confluence 

• Alternative meat 

• Rise of the rest (not US, not Europe, not China - desire for other systems or bring the rest in) 

• GameStop run

• Collapse of supply chain 

• Lack of basic skills 

Disruptors

• Believable imagery, living in own cultural/artistic spaces that aren’t necessarily “real” 

• Future of identity verification, future of avatars security? 

• Post-scarcity

• Post-covid as window to space 

• Food system not sustainable, there will be a collapse = big link to space! 

• The other 2 billion come online, what does that look like? 

• Removeable of pieces of systems (as we shift into digital environment) = actor network theory) 

• Potential for Global war (China invades Taiwan, ongoing Ukraine conflict...) 

• Dynamics of trust, who do we trust, why do we trust? 

• Next pandemic (migration of animals due to human impacts, bats) 

• Democracy vs. fascism, vs. what’s next? This is being taken advantage of. 

• New generations totally different mindset, don’t recognize boundaries, material goods, etc. How will this shape future 

behavior? 

• Future of consumption, what’s the future of capitalism? 

• Future of power, social movements to drive financial impacts 
164

Table 36. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (2 of 5)

TECHNOLOGICAL 

Trends

• 3D printing (Food tech, plastics, etc.) 

• Primary persons (world of warcraft virus) vs. virtual lives 

• Synthetic biology 

• Vin locking, who owns stuff, Ukrainian tractors stollen and then bricked remotely by John Deere; you can't service 

things because you don't own them, different ownership structures 

• hacker culture to unbrick things 

• longevity research and view of aging as a disease 

• new nuclear (new fission systems) 

• continuous health monitoring in the home (non-invasive); telehealth 

• brain hacking 

• digital twins of everything and changing modes of transportation (eVOTL) 

• cyber security and one bad actor can freeze entire society; China concerned about how anti-fragile Starlink 

• global LEO comms 

• distributed infrastructure 

• cross-linking science and technology; citizen science 

• manufacturing in space, 4 major areas: DARPA award, ISS, DoD, NASA cislunar, funding indicates that this will 

be a disruptor 

• non-traditional education platforms like TikTok, YouTube, etc. 

Disruptors

• nuclear, mobile nuclear project, fusion 

• rise in cyber-security threats EVERYWHERE 

• supply chain dependence on Chinese components or other single sources (how do you drive a more distributed 

supply chain?), same issue with rare earth elements 

• abandoning recycling 

• intersection of robotics and AI is real and happening now at a large scale 

• more personal robotics 

• alarm about microplastics and concerns over single-use plastics (microplastics found in fetal tissue, being 

consumed in surprisingly large amounts) 

• ways that technology is limited to reduce human concern not due to actual technical limitations (self-driving cars 

go slow through intersections) 

• expect first high-density fusion reactors very soon 

• integrated technology in our fabrics, etc. 

• 3D printed ear transplant 

• rise of NewSpace with different ethics, perspective, desire to reduce & reuse, could be a platform to model good 

behavior on earth 
165

Table 37. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (3 of 5)

ECONOMIC

Trends

• Water (will become scarcer, create more problems) 

• Crypto currency 

• Crowdsourcing 

• Discover what the rest of the world works with everyday 

• Universal basic income/services, changing relationship to work and how our value is distributed 

• What does it mean to live beyond 100 and still have a viable social fabric? 

• Disappearance of cash and changing ways to pay 

• Governmental digital currencies 

• Social credit scores, social media as social credit, traditional credit scores 

• Social economic element in use of digital currency 

• Charging for public restrooms excludes homeless populations 

• Changing investment priorities 

• Digital currency vs. cash, cash is democratizing - anonymous, accessible to everyone / digital currencies are 

traceable, thus new social dynamics related to who gets to participate in each market 

• How to governments store reserve money? 

• Globalization of capital and markets - if you get a tiny penetration into large markets, you have larger market than 

entire US. Companies can be created quickly out of nothing, but need to have a track record of returns or executions 

(how are these new companies appearing out of nowhere?) 

• Decentralized digital assets—large projected market for things that individuals will make and sell that are nonmaterial 

• Artificiality of our financial systems, easy to lose trust 

• Significant effort being put into nouveau capitalism, what’s the next big picture framework for economies 

• Willingness of the consumer to be the product by selling our data - no mass movement to take back individual data 

ownership 

• What does money even mean in a realm where we can borrow massive amounts of money and always be in dept 

and be fine? 

• In the early 1900s was massive boom in innovation in every sector of society during and after WWs as opposed to 

right now innovation is mostly focused on communication 

• What are our most talented people working on? Apps vs. physical infrastructure? 

• United States isn’t investing in human capital and workforce development to the extent of other countries or our past 

• Deep thought isn’t supported as much now as past leading to distractions and many communication channels make 

it difficult to challenge large hard problems, what is efficiency? Reading lots of emails vs. spending time isolated 

focusing on a single problem 

• Deep thought and intellect—innovation is ideas having sex and you can’t do that in a room alone 

• Lack of secular growth right now, our advancements in past have increased productivity of humans, recently growth 

will be about 

Disruptors

• Anti-globalism 

• Workforce value 

• Currency shifts and use globally 
166

Table 38. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (4 of 5)

ENVIRONMENTAL 

Trends

• As climate shifts populations will move, gain access to new areas and loose access to current areas 

• We will know a lot more about climate because of new sensing and data collection 

• Disconnect between environmental concerns and ability to do any physically big projects (there is no place to build 

another large space port), thus there is conflict between environmental needs and large infrastructure needs 

• Our ocean (used as refrigerator and toilet for years) and the lack of understanding of the importance of the ocean in 

our ecosystems 

• Since early humans we’ve been “takers” from the environment and need to make a transition to “care-takers” of our 

planet 

• Industry trends on the environment tend to be Western. Could look more into non-western philosophies like anti-land 

ownership vs. conquering and owning land? Reexamine the nature/culture divide 

• Personhood for nature (a river in New Zealand has been given personhood, there’s been a push to do that for the 

moon) 

• Tragedy of the commons shows that areas that are non-owned are not maintained as well; counterpoint: could we 

use stewardship as a framework 

• Biomimicry, learning from the environment and nature to design smarter, better tech 

• New generation being disappointed that we haven’t take care of the environment 

• Push-back against aviation, launch, fashion industries, etc. 

• Stewardship vs. ownership: ownership does not guarantee accountability, but future could see more accountability to 

enforce norms, etc. 

• Pendulum and interdependency, whether you can have ownership depends on scarcity - in a post-scarcity world 

shared-resources might be more feasible than if scarcity still exists 

• Eco-imperialist perspective: we can’t go there because that would be evil colonization and might impact the 

ecosystem, but is that worse than taking resources out of Earth’s environment? 

• Taking a stand against de-orbiting the ISS: individual can’t litter but government can throw out entire space station 

Disruptors

• Climate management, not nearly enough to oppose man-created climate change; we may want to prevent natural 

climate change if it impacts our way of life 

• Using natural alternatives to plastics (like mushrooms) 

• Kessler syndrome 

• Oil and gas industry is disrupting efforts to prevent/reverse climate change and climate issues 

• Societal greenwashing, black rock, “scrofrenia”, we are not prepared to change our behaviors or give up our comforts 

to change climate problems 

• Should we pass off environmental decisions to algorithms and computers instead of humanity? 

• Sustainability as a concept 
167

Table 39. In-Person External Roundtable Key Trends and Disruptors (5 of 5)

POLITICAL 

Trends

• Rise of Africa (recognizing geographic advantages and pulling resources) 

• Artemis vs. Russia/China - where is Africa, India going to break in space? 

• Rise of authoritarianism (net GDP of authoritarian space is larger than free states) 

• Rise of younger voices via social media, rise of female global leaders 

• New governance models, digital communities, and societies 

• Backlash against governments with guns 

• United Nations Peaceful Use of Outer Space is now looking at space resource utilization - there are WAY MORE 

actors/voices now than when UN started this, will UN become completely obsolete with so many voices and 

requirement for consensus? Decision making could become impossible 

• Paradigms of governance, transitioning to more block based, ability to make decisions for these block problems is 

revealing issues in current gov. structures 

• Public-private partnerships are taking on different forms to solve big problems, how do we create interoperability 

between very different functioning orgs? 

• Emergence of non-nation state organizations is being challenged by governments because they have guns and can 

push back 

• ITAR is limiting international information sharing and collaboration 

• All the ambiguities in space law, the American political way of handling space might not be best 

• International law is traditionally made by sovereign nations, but the commercial industry can now make customary 

international law that nations will have to adopt/follow 

• Lack of political will or apathy to vote - if people aren’t supportive then we can’t make real changes 

• The way gender is being discussed and moving toward non-binary approach to gender, less black and white thinking 

and more understanding of nuances and spectrums, could result in a move away from fear-based politics 

• Red vs. blue politics don’t fit well with increasingly nuanced political identities 

• If orgs like Anonymous use power for good that would be awesome, but they could also do bad things (traditional 

gov. vs. non-gov. actors) 

• Some could say that UN makes rules in a universe that they don’t own, move through a phase where we have a 

battle between corporate entity going into space and sovereign entities. At first, governments have the advantage 

because we’ll still rely on Earth, but in the future space communities could be independent from Earth and Earth will 

have no control over them - we must come up with an ethos for space communities versus nation-state norms of 

claim to space 

• Why do groups of people no longer want to be a part of nation-states? 

• Race to the bottom in terms of licensing and regulations (US has lots of regulations, other countries may be able to 

offer less or no regulations to commercial space actors) 

Disruptors

• Navigating where we are dropping astronauts/launching from, impact of space ports in impoverished nations (not 

bringing jobs to the host countries) 

• Commercial sovereignties are starting to pop up and play a role 

• Building nations without territories (in cyberspace, space, etc.) 

• Virtual economies like Metaverse, Second Life - ways for people to make money beyond political borders, new 

religions, new economies, virtual sovereign nations, 

• Rise in the discussion of equality in space, how do we ensure that non-space faring nations benefit equally from the 

use of space and the advancement of technology (focus on benefit for humanity vs. for our country/economy) 

• Humans have also revolted against governments and virtual options reduce the cost to entry for revolting and 

creating your own country 

• Virtual awards are becoming more integral to our daily lives and social spheres 

• A Future where governments are decentralized and apply to people not geographic areas 

• Capabilities that decentralized organizations can have, once you have the capabilities you can use them for any 

purpose (good or bad) 

D.2.2 Defining the Possibilities of the Future of Discovery and Exploration

For this exercise, the participants were asked to find an article discussing a new way of discovery and 

exploration. Presented here is are inputs from the participants:

• “Off World Company—robots that can use AI to find veins for mining, reduces operational

expenses, safer, less environmental impact, reducing power requirements, no humans involved” 

• “In-space manufacturing is becoming more mainstream, Made in Space can make unique 

materials in space.” 
168

- “In the case of additive manufacturing, it was invented in 1983 and it takes a long time to see 

the full potential of that technology.” 

- “Dream chaser: as an investor the problem is that space for use on Earth has customers, but 

space for use in space doesn’t have sufficient customers. So, in-space manufacturing of 

spacecraft isn’t quite viable yet.” 

• “Treasure hunting company in the Bahamas has to give 25% to the government, but now the 

government is trying to define the treasure as a natural resource versus a cultural treasure.” 

• “Map making with Australian aboriginal people—thought that they were telling stories, but it was 

really verbal map making.” 

• “Maybe people with disabilities may be better suited to exploring space?” 

• “If we bring in a bunch of new resources to Earth, we will increase the amount of those resources 

on Earth and devalue them—numbers might be tricky here to make a business case close.”

- “What materials are extremely common in asteroids and on the moon versus on Earth?” 

- “There may be no reason to send humans to mine off-world.” 

• “Augmented interspecies communication (FluentPet): discussion of whether pets can recognize 

the names of other animals, if they can use language techniques, changing the questions about 

how smart they are. Animals use buttons while no humans are in the room—it’s a good model for 

how we have contact with other species.” 

- “This analysis of the language of animals and even plants will change the way we interact 

with the environment. If we see it is as intelligent then we won’t want to just interact with it 

in the same way.” 

D.2.3 Defining the Possibilities of the Future of Space Discovery and Exploration

For this exercise, we posed the following open-ended questions:

61. Define in 10 words or fewer what you believe space discovery and exploration means

• “A long future for humanity” 

• “Responsibility to future generations” 

• “Why do humans deserve to continue and preserve our history?” 

• “We exist as a natural continuation of our biosphere’s expansion.”

• “Opportunity to alter mindsets from one of scarcity to one of abundance” 

• “Exploration is hardwired into the human DNA. Up and out is our new West.” 

• “Opportunity, danger, risk, reward, learning, fulfillment, failure, multigenerational” 

• “Disenfranchised people have an alternative exit—there is nowhere else to go on Earth” 

• “Our purpose is to explore and experience everything in the universe” 

• “Challenges our basic features and unites our species at a difficult time” 

• “Appreciating Earth and challenging us to live on it better” 

• “Five positives: hope, growth, prosperity, opportunity, and pathways. Negatives: restlessness, 

dissatisfaction, greed” 
169

• “A quest for meaning. A quest to know ourselves by exploring the edge. Constantly redefining 

our own context.” 

• “Seeking the answers to some of the most important questions.” 

• “Most meaningful endeavor of our generation” 

• “Mission to Mars by Michael Collins: we have a spiritual need for the new frontier” 

62. What is the impact of discovery and exploration for humanity, U.S., individual?  

• “For our generation versus future generations” 

• “Possibility to create a more fair, equitable, and fulfilling life for all human beings. Humans tell 

stories of what ifs, pushing boundaries allows us to raise new questions and continue evolving” 

• “For humanity, it’s about survival, for the U.S.” 

• “We can’t possibly imagine the value we’ll gain through space exploration” 

• “Impact on humanity is threatening...why are we doing this? Are we exploring to find an 

alternative to a dying Earth? Aspiration might not be a good thing.” 

• “Discovery and exploration are actions taken based on a purpose, and without a purpose we 

would not know how or why to explore. It’s impossible to guess the impact without knowing the 

‘why.’” 

• “As a biologist, it’s essential for the survival and evolutions of the human species” 

• “Carl Sagan believed that because we will have a deeper understanding of our place in the 

universe and truth, we can do good for the living things on the planet” 

63. How do we make these ideas important to people that spend most of their time thinking about 

their own survival? 

• “To keep it relevant to the masses, we need to think about the stories were telling and keep it 

inclusive and applicable to all” 

• “How do we make sure we keep an inclusive pipeline to the exploration mindset?” 

• “How do we communicate to the masses? Everyone is an underdog when we’re in space.” 

• “The NFL doesn’t feel like they need to make everyone think football is great. Not everyone will 

ever be a pioneer or a scientist. It’s okay for NASA to do things that not everyone in the United 

States agrees with. NASA spends less money than a lot of much less well-known U.S. 

programs.” 

• “We all know that in a complex world, some countries are strong in niche industries and promote 

higher education but are never able to use that knowledge to become wealthy. In China, more 

young people might want to be space explorers versus in the United States where more kids want 

to be influencers” 

• “We should still pay attention to dissent. Why are we taking a billion-dollar camping trip on the 

moon? Should we take the dissent more seriously as we see a rise in caretaker perspective from 

the next generation.” 

• “Democratizing access to space. This is cool but there’s nothing for us to do to get to a future of 

space exploration. We’re not going to make everyone happy—experiencing moon deniers and 

flat Earthers” 

• “Not everyone has to buy in—teaching in design school, you’d be surprised by how much 

nontechnical people feel they fit into the bigger picture” 

• “Why was it important for us to be ahead of the Russians in the space race—it was a rallying cry 

for people that weren’t in the room making decisions on space programs.” 

• “When people ask an astronaut ‘why go to space?’ [they] would say ‘why go to Yellowstone?’ 

Just because you don’t understand something doesn’t mean it’s not important.” 
170

• “Investing money into bringing communities in that haven’t been represented in the past. When 

we had the inspiration for launch, we had similar protests. Put out a docuseries created by a black 

documentarian and made by HBCU students about what it’s like to be a human in space.” 

• “It’s hard to get people to buy into aspirational things and it’s important to show people how 

much space impacts our day-to-day lives.” 

- “A lot of these things are emotional. People LOVE space and have a relationship about 

space.” 

- “Younger generations seem more combative and less interested in space” 

- “Maybe the way people approach science fiction might impact the way they think about 

space.” 

- “Pool hall experience—a room full of people that work with their hands and think there’s 

no place for them in the space industry” 

- “Not trying to convince everyone to want to go to space and the cultural experience that 

people are having [when they go to space] (people love sci-fi but aren’t interested in 

actual space exploration).”

- “People that are interested in science fiction view it as fantasy and not predictive of the 

future.” 

- “‘For All Man Kind’ is impressive. Storytellers may be more impactful than NASA on 

people’s interest in space.” 

- “Sci-fi production is a cultural output that reflects anxieties about our times. What about 

our times produces dystopian sci-fi content?” 

D.2.4 Attendees

Table 40. Biographies of All Attendees at the External In-Person NASA Roundtable

Name Biography

Lee Anderson Lee is a designer and strategist with a background in the fashion industry and a body 

of research exploring the intersection of space exploration and design through the lens 

of fashion. She is currently adjunct faculty at Parsons School of Design Strategies and 

a member of KPMG’s Innovation Lab. 

Greg Autry Dr. Greg Autry is Clinical Professor of Space Leadership, Policy and Business at 

Arizona State University’s Thunderbird School of Global Management and Visiting 

Professor in the Institute for Security Science and Technology at Imperial College 

London. He previously served on the NASA Agency Review Team (2016) and on the 

COMSTAC at FAA. 

Shelli Brunswick Shelli Brunswick, Space Foundation Chief Operating Officer, brings a broad 

perspective and deep vision of the global space ecosystem—from a distinguished 

career as a space acquisition and program management leader and congressional 

liaison for the U.S. Air Force to her current role overseeing Space Foundation’s three 

primary divisions: Center for Innovation and Education, Symposium 365, and Global 

Alliance. 

Kimberly Bryant Kimberly Bryant is the founder of Black Girls CODE, a non-profit organization focused 

on diversifying the tech industry by introducing girls from underrepresented 

communities to technology. Her new company ASCEND Ventures Tech takes builds 

on her work in technology with innovative programs in Web3, sustainable 

entrepreneurship, and investment in overlooked founders. 

Aaron Burnett Aaron Burnett is the Founder and CEO of Spaced Ventures, the world’s largest 

community of space investors. He is a relatively new entrant to the Space Industry, 

who brings more than a decade of marketing and community experience along with a 

proven track record of engaging digital audiences into the millions. 
171

Name Biography

Naia Butler-Craig 

(could not attend due 

to travel issues)

Naia Butler-Craig is an aerospace engineering Ph.D. student at Georgia Tech with a 

focus in electronic propulsion. She's funded through the NASA Space Technology 

Graduate Research Opportunity and is a NASA pathways intern. 

David Colby Reed I’m a designer, educator, and technology ethicist. Some of my past include designing 

public services for the City of New York, storytelling experiences for the Kigali 

Genocide Memorial, and financial instruments to advance economic security. I’m 

currently pursuing a Ph.D. at the MIT Media Lab, where I try to imagine desirable 

futures for equitable governance and space exploration. 

Tom Cooke Tom Cooke is the co-founder and CEO of Spacely, a digital marketplace connecting 

independent workers to the aerospace industry. Tom is a U.S. Air Force Academy 

graduate and spent 16 of his 24 years of service in space systems development and 

operations. After retiring from the Air Force in 2017 he began researching open talent 

marketplace utilization across industries and potential applications for the aerospace 

industry. This led to the formation of Spacely in January 2020. In June 2020, Spacely 

was selected to be part of a 5-year contract effort to bring forward aerospace-specific 

expertise to support NASA’s Open Innovation efforts through an open talent 

marketplace model. Spacely’s goals are to be a trusted network partner in providing 

access to fractional talent for the aerospace industry and to bring forward opportunities 

to those who want to contribute and take part in the growing space economy. 

Dorit Donoviel Dorit Donoviel, Ph.D. is the Executive Director of the NASA-funded Translational 

Research Institute for Space Health (TRISH), which relentlessly pursues and funds 

research to advance human health solutions for space exploration. Dr. Donoviel is an 

associate professor in Pharmacology and Chemical Biology and the Center for Space 

Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine.

Rob Gabbert Rob Gabbert is an engineer and government affairs professional who has spent the 

last decade+ building ties to Congress and the Executive Branch. He has industry 

knowledge from helping companies working on OSAM, orbital logistics, and ISRU. 

Michelle Hanlon Michelle is Co-Director of the Air & Space Law Program at the University of Mississippi 

School of Law, Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Space Law and the Journal of Drone 

Law and Policy. Michelle co-founded For All Moonkind, a nonprofit that is the only 

organization in the world focused on protecting human cultural heritage in outer 

space. 

Peter Kleeman Peter Kleeman is a historian and founder of the Space Age Museum project. He 

specializes in Space Age cultural history, particularly public engagement with space 

exploration and visions of the future. 

Johnathan Knowles An explorer, scientist, and technologist currently working in the space and ocean 

domains, Jonathan is focused on the dynamics of large-scale, long-term change with 

an emphasis on beyond the horizon science and technology. With 35 years 

in academia and in Silicon Valley leadership positions at Apple, Adobe, and Autodesk, 

Jonathan provides insight on the intersection of emerging technologies and closing the 

gap between the theory and practice of innovation in a world of rapidly accelerating 

technological capabilities at the Frontier Development Lab and Mission Blue. 

Mary Robinette 

Kowal 

Mary Robinette Kowal is the Hugo and Nebula award winning author of The 

Glamourist Histories series, Ghost Talkers, and the Lady Astronaut Universe, starting 

with The Calculating Stars. A professional puppeteer and audiobook narrator, she lives 

in Nashville with her husband Rob and over a dozen manual typewriters.  

Graham Lau (could 

not attend due to 

travel issues)

Dr. Graham Lau is an astrobiologist and communicator of science. He serves as the 

Director of Communications and Marketing for Blue Marble Space, as the Director of 

Logistics for the University Rover Challenge, and as the Host of the NASA-funded 

show “Ask an Astrobiologist.” 

Savannah Mandel Savannah Mandel is an outer space anthropologist and writer currently based out of 

Virginia Tech. She is earning her Ph.D. in Science and Technology Studies and is in 

the midst of completing a book that confronts imperialist space rhetoric and the sociocultural outcomes of human space exploration.

Michael Mealling Michael is a General Partner with Starbridge Venture Capital, a space-focused VC 

fund, where he invests in companies with real customers providing top decile returns to 
172

Name Biography

his limited partners. He is also an unabashed supporter of humanity moving into the 

solar systems and eventually the galaxy as fast as economically possible. The 

universe needs us. 

Yvette Montero 

Salvitico 

Holding a bachelor’s degree in Finance and an MBA from the University of Florida, 

Yvette has over 15 years of corporate experience with large, multi-national firms such 

as Kimberly-Clark and The Walt Disney Company. Before co-founding The Futures 

School, she led the effort to establish the Future Workforce Insights division at the Walt 

Disney Company. 

Frank Spencer Frank Spencer is the Founding Principal and Creative Director at Kedge, a global 

foresight, innovation, and strategic design firm that empowers organizations to realize 

aspirational futures and transformational growth. He also co-founded The Futures 

School, a global foresight learning ecosystem that equips individuals and teams with a 

tangible mindset and framework to discover the future and create it today. He holds a 

Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight from Regent University. 

Roger Spitz Based in San Francisco, Roger Spitz is President of Techistential (Foresight Strategy) 

and Chairman of the Disruptive Futures Institute. Roger sits on several Advisory 

Boards of Companies, Climate Councils & Academic institutions worldwide; the VC 

funds he advises and invested in support the venture-backed ecosystem in Silicon 

Valley, across the U.S., Israel, U.K. & Europe. 

Lee Steinke Lee Steinke is the COO of Cislunar Industries, a licensed scientist, and a strategic 

advisor to the aerospace, defense, and energy industries. She has published a variety 

of technical papers and speaks to audiences across industries.  

Scott Trowbridge A Disney Imagineer since 2007, Scott Trowbridge is responsible for global concept 

development and integration of the Star Wars franchise across Walt Disney Parks and 

Resorts. Previously, Scott led Walt Disney Imagineering Research and Development 

and oversaw the organization’s Blue Sky Design Studio, as well as development and 

oversight of new Guest experiences for The Disneyland Resort. 

Rick Tumlinson Considered one of the best speakers in the space field, Rick is listed as one of the top 

100 influential people in the space field. He has been called one of the world’s top 

space “Visionaries” and is credited with helping create the commercial space industry 

highlighted by Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos, often referred to as NewSpace. A leading 

writer, speaker, and six-time Congressional witness, he led the commercial takeover of 

the Russian Mir space station, signed the first private space traveler to fly to the space 

station, co-founded the Space Frontier Foundation, and was a founding board member 

of the X-Prize. As a result of his world-changing work, in 2015, he won the World 

Technology Award along with Craig Venter of the Human Genome project. He founded 

the SpaceFund venture capital company and his non-profit organization, the EarthLight 

Foundation, is creating an inclusive movement to use space to protect Earth and 

expand life into the cosmos. 

D.2.5 Graphic Recordings

The virtual external roundtable session was graphically facilitated by Blue Beyond Consulting, a visual 

communication consultant who supports complex technical projects with real-time illustrated story maps. 

The four graphic recordings are shown in Figure 84 through Figure 87.
173

Figure 84. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 1 of 4 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting).

Courtesy of NASA
174

Figure 85. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 2 of 4 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting).

Courtesy of NASA
175

Figure 86. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 3 of 4 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting). 

Courtesy of NASA
176

Figure 87. In-person external roundtable graphic recording 4 of 4 (image created by Blue Beyond Consulting

Courtesy of NASA
177

Appendix E. Summary of Commonalities/Contradictions across Input Sources

There were strongly consistent themes across the NASA-internal roundtables, NASA-external 

roundtables, and the NASA executive interviews. There were some inconsistencies across these groups 

indicating significant disconnects for NASA leadership to consider addressing as part of strategic 

planning. A summary of these high-level consistencies/contradictions is shown in Figure 88. The

statements in this figure represent inputs we received that occurred in more than one group. We did not 

include any opinions/perspectives from participants if there was only a single instance. 

Some participants from the NASA executive and NASA non-executive groups indicated that they were 

not aligned with the current NASA vision. These participants focused on the ethical considerations to 

humankind and Earth. They indicated that NASA could take a greater responsibility for these ethical 

considerations moving forward. There was a strong agreement that not enough was being done to create a 

diverse, equitable, and inclusive workforce and working environment. This was particularly noted in the 

executive roundtables. 

However, some of the NASA-internal participants did not feel that radical change is necessary. This was 

in contrast with the feedback we received from the NASA early career staff and NASA-external groups 

who thought that there needed to be change. There was agreement that the trust of the public is critical to

NASA’s viability. They generally agreed that NASA should be a “storyteller” of space for the public.

Figure 88. Summary of commonalities/contradictions across input sources.
178

Figure 89. Themes and associated direct quotes/Miro posts across aspirations and fears for NASA.

Figure 90. Quotes from executive interviews across a few key theme areas.
179

Appendix F. Lessons Learned

Diversifying the groups participating in the study was vital. Doing so illuminated blind spots, allowed us 

to see a bigger picture, and enabled us to collect the information necessary to deliver meaningful insights 

for the Agency. We also learned that continuing conversations and establishing routines for ongoing 

discussions about the future will help with organizational resiliency, communication, and planning. It is 

also essential to have the synthesizers of the data be objective for the design, facilitation, and analysis to 

avoid implicit institutional biases in the findings. Participants both internal and external were interested in 

seeing the results of the study and passing it along to their staff and peers. The early career staff were 

particularly enthusiastic to both participate and to see NASA leadership leaning forward on future 

thinking.

For strategic foresighting exercises to be helpful, there is a necessity to have stakeholders challenge 

current assumptions. Fruitful workshops are time intensive to plan. We feel that this pilot activity of 

roundtables was on an aggressive timeline and longer sessions would benefit participants. Additional 

roundtables would increase the diversity of thought feeding the process. Future planning of similar 

roundtable workshops should allow for more pre-planning to optimize participation, diversity, facilities, 

and methodology execution.

More work needs to be done to build the general population’s understanding of strategic foresighting. As 

it is both a science and philosophical endeavor, understanding this process is required for the buy-in of 

participants and stakeholders. 
180

Appendix G. Strategic Options and Supporting Roundtable Inputs

Table 41 details strategic options with a description and relevant supporting inputs from the executive 

interviews and roundtables.

Table 41. Strategic Options and Supporting Data

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

1. Maintain internal 

capabilities relevant 

to NASA’s mission

Overlap exists between 

what NASA is doing and 

what commercial can do.

"The assumption that commercial will get everything done 

is a false assumption."

"Infrastructure necessary to carry out the mission, most is 

over 80 years old, beyond end of life, is single biggest risk 

to mission."

"No one launches without NASA, ability to support all 

demands is big, ... hard to maintain with declining budgets 

and support from Congress."

"Commercial sector is a lot smarter than NASA isn't the 

case. There is the same diversity of talent."

NASA Internal Mash-Up #2 Takeaway: "Ensuring NASA 

and other public entities remain relevant, as capabilities, 

funding, and infrastructure building shift to outside parties. 

Important to maintain public interest, don't let everything go 

to commercial, it’s a balance."

2. NASA transitions 

to an acquisitiononly agency

NASA employees are not 

actively building, 

integrating, or operating in 

house

"We are in an environment where people are breaking 

molds. Acquisition constraints are impeding us to becoming 

irrelevant."

"Are we dependent upon outside actors? How much effort 

would need to go into shifting course if wrong?"
181

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

3. Skate to where 

commercial isn’t

Fully transition 

commercial-viable 

capabilities out of NASA

“I think the things [NASA] can make repeatable and get for 

a service we should."

"There is a vibrant aerospace industry, private investment, 

new entrants exist and continue to exist."

"The way we work – not only internally but how partner and 

collaborate – collaborative environment (1/3 federal, 2/3 

partnership); how we are going to work going forward."

"Used to be governments had more control of technology 

due to having more money. Governments of the world 

today will have a smaller footprint."

“Need to do contracting differently - ok for industry to make 

money.”

"Hard to do business with NASA since it’s very scattered – 

need a single group that deals with outside world, so you 

don’t need to guess from the outside."

"NASA needs to take a look at their own footprint. Model for 

in-house work vs work that industry is already doing. 

Rethink NASA centers. Lots of assets that we have as 

NASA, country, and space community based on where they 

are – too expensive, industry can do it cheaper, etc."

NASA Internal Mash-Up #4 Takeaway: "Increasing US debt 

is putting NASA in a tough spot; NASA seen as a luxury not 

a necessity - not seen as needed to survive (cancer 

research, military). Our response won't be another Apollo 

like program - try to tap into entrepreneurial nature of US - 

driven by commerce; science done will be driven by what 

has a high ROI."

4. Focus on basic 

research

Rebalance portfolio to be 

more research focused 

rather than missionexecution focused

"Do a lot of tech transfer"

"Understand the world - climate, data, science"

"How technology developed for space can be used on 

Earth"

“Push early TRL work that others can't/won't do”

“Facilities need to match the mission, look at own footprint, 

rethink centers, underinvesting in aging facilities

Aging infrastructure - risk to mission, IT investment not 

moving at scale or speed, hard to maintain with declining 

budgets” 

Centers and Directorates resource constrained: "Centers 

lost control of what they had and lost flexibility ... no control 

over what they can fund like IR&D. ... The small centers are 

especially affected and hurting." "Not a set of money for all 

centers to do S&T development, so centers can get 

competitive with toxic relationships over fighting for 

resources."
182

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

5. Lead the frontier Go as far and fast as 

possible, explore the 

unknown where no one 

else is

"Pursue things that are transformational in nature. It might 

be how we travel in space... manufacturing and assembling 

in space."

"Hypersonics will be the dominant form of access to LEO," 

robotics in human exploration, "net zero emission by 2050 

for aviation."

"Pushing a new age of exploration across the board from 

small to large, science to technology."

"Take things that have been dominant designs and break 

them because technologies can now break through these."

"The area around transformational impact of technology – 

convergence/divergence cycle; at the borders between 

disciplines in technology, innovation is made possible at an 

accelerating rate."

"Investment in technology is not up to par, not moving at 

scale or speed."

“Failure should be an option if you aren't going to hurt 

anyone, perfect is enemy of good”

"Why spend 8 billion a year on humans in space? Why go 

to space? No reason for humans to go into space if 

machines can do it. Only reason for humans in space is for 

human settlements. The reason for why we want to do that 

(human settlements) is if Earth gets destroyed."

NASA Internal Mash-Up #1 Takeaway: "Unintended 

consequences of potential meddling with Earth's 

climate/atmosphere; could NASA perfect geoengineering 

off-world and bring it back?"

NASA Internal Mash-up #2 Takeaway: "One key 

capability/technology can change the art of what's possible 

(e.g., thriving in the desert, living off- world, or looking 

deeper into space than ever done before)"
183

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

6. Catalyze access 

for all

Enable mechanisms for 

significant part of society to 

participate in exploration 

and science

"For the benefit of all...don't do work behind a closed door"

"Improve lives of all Americans on a day-to-day basis" 

(coast-to-coast supersonic flights, etc.)

"Making that dream to more affordable access to space 

environment a reality – one that reaches further down into 

humanity. Providing an opportunity to live/work [in space]."

"If we are giving our data to people trying to disrupt, what 

does that mean for NASA?"

"Do a lot of tech transfer"

"Barriers to innovation, bureaucracy. If you've been 

successful at doing something, why try something else. 

Power of status quo is massive."`

7. Master in 

targeted areas, 

partner elsewhere

Self-sufficient in small 

subset of core 

competencies, partner 

elsewhere because you 

can’t do it all

"Aerospace market, need to recognize that NASA plays a 

part in a global market that is ever expanding globally – 

have a structure that isn’t overly inhibiting for partnerships, 

commercial and international."

“Keeping development skills and knowledge - need 

partnerships”

“Business core is rotten - need transformational activities 

and cross-enterprise sharing”

NASA Internal Mash-Up #2 Takeaway: "Ensuring NASA 

and other public entities remain relevant, as capabilities, 

funding, and infrastructure building shift to outside parties. 

Important to maintain public interest, don't let everything go 

to commercial, it’s a balance."
184

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

8. Maximize 

partnerships across 

all efforts

Value proposition as an 

integrator across 

interagency, international, 

etc., not necessarily an 

expert everywhere

Internationalization of space - other countries becoming 

players in space including tech development, not just U.S., 

also poses security and other challenges.

"Globalization and continuing challenges around how to 

work across global lines effectively and security and 

challenges that come with globalization."

"A NASA that is in a much more dynamic place from NASA 

of the past with achievements done in partnership with 

other nations and industry/commercial." 

"Re-energized 'can do' attitude with lots of partnerships"

"Restrictions through ITAR - a place like NASA has a better 

chance at [international partnerships] than DOD, ... NASA's 

mission should be more open to international partnerships."

"Crowding weather - might have a consortium with 

nonprofit, profit, and government around climate. Why and 

how should the government get involved?"

NASA Early-Career Mash-Up #6 Takeaway: "Who's 

controlling the resources will drive behavior...on Earth and 

in Space! It's important to understand your partners versus 

competitors"

9. DIY: don’t partner Complete vertical 

integration under NASAfunded efforts

"So many great things about culture, but it does enable 

some bad behavior like institutional arrogance. When 

you've been successful for so long, you don't look outside, 

believe only the right answer can come from within your 

wall."

"Some things take a lot of patient capital, but more reliance 

on NASA to do more things, things will go slower because 

NASA will only get so many resources. If things slow down, 

ability to sustain political support also becomes 

challenging."

10. Be the best 

government option

Excel at providing the best 

work environment in the 

USG

“Demonstrate leadership and reward employees for 

progress toward change”

“Train NASA people to be business-minded.”

"Talented people that care about this - think pipeline of 

people is phenomenal and each class is smarter than last."

“Promote end state thinking and remind everyone how cool 

and important what we do is.”

"In lots of aerospace companies, talent want to do their best 

but become victims of their own success, competition of 

resources. Stakeholders operating under paradigm that you 

will get what you need to get done with whatever resources 

they give you."
185

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

11. Substantial 

effort to increase 

value proposition 

for attracting and 

sustaining talent

Push government swim 

lanes for talent acquisition

"One of the top administration priorities is the future of our 

workforce and our nation."

"Differentiator is people - reinvesting in training and 

development."

"Promote flexible, agile, quality of life at work and home."

“Recognize experts to keep them from leaving, invest in 

training and development, quality of life, flexible and agile, 

and facilities that will attract people” 

"Infrastructure plus the people – if we can’t get access to 

people and they aren’t attracted because NASA isn’t 

awesome place to come – but people need to have a good 

place to come to."

"Most leadership talent is homegrown; diversity of opinion is 

important."

NASA Executive Mash-Up #1 Takeaway: "Human 

enhancement through psychedelics has been proven, 

should space-faring selection process be reconsidered and 

perhaps required?"

12. Compete with 

non-government for 

top talent

Break open new 

possibilities for getting 

talent

“Set up a national lab on the Moon”

University of NASA, “turning some centers into world class 

facilities for academia and industry... some could turn into 

FFRDCs"

"NASA's secret is their people."

"Still getting 300 application per job at NASA, but 

framework doesn't allow to send people into private sector 

and then bring them back"

NASA Internal Mash-Up #3 Takeaway: "Need more 

sustainable way to source food, needed for building offworld; could be opportunity to engage with citizen science 

and agriculture innovation!"
186

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

13. Arbiter of data 

not policy

NASA presents/provides 

data, but does not get 

involved in policy 

formulation or decisions

"As a scientist, view [NASA's] role as providing information 

and not shaping policy."

"Geopolitics – party to party, admin to admin, have good 

ideas and need to stop the churn – work in a more 

apolitical/non-political environment."

"Ability to use data - we have a ton of data inside NASA 

and we're just scratching the surface of way to unlock data 

to provide useful information of data in real time, whether 

climate, or other." 

"Get data in the hands of people who can actually use it."

What data do you trust? "When to trust data?"

NASA Internal Mash-Up #5 Takeaway: "NASA collecting so 

much data - can't actually process in a meaningful way"

14. Use NASA’s 

voice to drive 

awareness for 

policy

NASA drives conversations 

on topics where it has 

expertise

"For NASA to be a true leader, need to lead to sustainable 

aerospace. NASA itself needs to find a way to a sustainable 

future and point way for whole of industry."

"It [NASA] can guide what the whole world does in space 

with its vision and money."

"What is our vison for the world? ...Economic is the key 

word in quote, bring the solar system into our economic 

realm....our economy [should] go up to the asteroid belt or 

Saturn by 2050."

"Orbital debris is a concern...pollution in space is a real 

hazard. Wild West stuff going on... Where is the oversight? 

Who is liable if something goes wrong?"

“Political pressure to deliver within 4-year political cycles 

when 6 years might be best answer.”

NASA Early-Career Mash-Up #1 Takeaway: "We need to 

have an idea of our approach to these technologies before 

they happen and not in reaction"

NASA Early-Career Mash-Up #5 Takeaway: "As autonomy 

gets linked into more and more critical industries, the 

question of liability could have life-or-death consequences 

for both individuals and nation"
187

Strategic Options Description Supporting NASA Executive Comments and 

Roundtable Inputs

15. NASA as a 

direct influencer of 

policy

NASA as an explicit policy 

advocate through datadriven evidence

“Rushing into solar system without shared view of law and 

international agreements, precedents being set by industry, 

U.S. hands off but international more connected to 

industry.” 

“The first one to do something sets the rules.”

Commercial vs government role, gov has an obligation to 

think about all citizens. 

"OIR thinks through [international partnerships] a lot and 

policy and potential changes to policy."

NASA Early-Career Mash-Up #4 Takeaway: "Having our 

own house in order impacts international relations"
Appendix H. List of NLP Documents Scanned

Document name Document Source

Trends Affecting Government and Society GAO (Aerospace provided)

Global Trends 2040 NIC (Aerospace provided)

Future of the Connected World: Global Action and Recent Progress WEC (Aerospace provided)

Technology Futures: Projecting the Possible, Navigating What’s Next WEC (Aerospace provided)

Work/Technology 2050 The Millennium Project 

(Aerospace provided)

Strategic Foresight for the Space Enterprise Aerospace

The Future of Space 2060 and Implications for U.S. Strategy: Report on 

the Space Futures Workshop 

Air Force Space Command 

(Aerospace provided)

Future Uses of Space Out to 2050 RAND Europe (Aerospace 

provided)

2005 NASA Executive Capability Roadmaps Report NASA

2002 NASA Strategic Plan NASA

2033 Mars Orbital Mission Concept NASA

The Future of Space 2060 and Implications for U.S. Strategy: Report on 

the Space Futures Workshop 

AAI (NASA provided)

Putative Deep Space Futures AAI (NASA provided)

The Developing Econometrics Beyond COVID AAI (NASA provided)

AFRC Innovation White Paper NASA

AMES Innovation White Paper NASA

ARMD Innovation White Paper NASA

Embracing the fourth Industrial Revolution -Challenges, Opportunities 

and Path Forward for Propulsion

NASA

ASAP Recommendations NASA

China Plan for National economic and Social Development CSET (NASA provided)

Common Center and MD Themes NASA

Cosmic Beachcombing V2 (Dennis Bushnell) NASA

Future of Air Transportation (Dennis Bushnell) NASA

Societal Issues (Dennis Bushnell) NASA

Electric Aircraft V2 (Dennis Bushnell and Robert Moses) NASA

Early Career Initiative Innovation White Paper NASA

Analysis of NASA ARMD Megatrends, Findings, and 

Recommendations

NASA

Where is it all going? (Dennis Bushnell) NASA

Financially Advantageous Approaches to Sustain the Ecosystem 

(Dennis Bushnell)

NASA

GRC Innovation White Paper NASA

GRC ME Magazine NASA

188
GSFC Innovation White Paper NASA

HEOMD Innovation White Paper NASA

Coordinating Innovative Technology Development at NASA NASA

IFTF Vantage: A Partnership of Future-Ready Organizations NASA

JPL Innovation White Paper NASA

Massless Exploration –Humans as a Solar System Species NASA

On the Road toward 2050: Potential for Substantial Reductions in 

Light-Duty Vehicle Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas Emissions

NASA

NASA Strategic Plan 2022 NASA

The 2013 Strategic Priority-Setting Process at NASA NASA

NASA Strategic Roadmap Committees Final Roadmaps (May 22, 

2005) 

NASA

Commercial Space in The Age Of “NewSpace”, Reusable Rockets and 

The Ongoing Tech Revolutions

NASA

Prospectives in Deep Space Infrastructures, Development, and 

Colonization

NASA

Disruptive Technologies and Their Putative Impacts Upon Society and 

Aerospace- Entering the Virtual Age

NASA

Futures of Deep Space Exploration, Commercialization, and 

Colonization: The Frontiers of the Responsibly Imaginable

NASA

Continuous Improvement of NASA's Innovation Ecosystem:

Proceedings of a Workshop (2019)

NASEM (NASA provided)

Observations & Recommendations of LaRC NASA

Observations and Recommendations based on discussions with the 

Directors of National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) 

Langley Research Center (LaRC)

NASA

Astro 2020 Analysis NASA

Application of Decision Analysis and Scenario Planning to 

Prioritization of NASA’s Strategic Mission Objectives

NASA

Concept for 2033 Crewed Mars Orbital Mission with Venus Flyby NASA

SID Insights NASA

SMD Innovation White Paper NASA

STMD Innovation White Paper NASA

Strategic NASA Roundtable Futures Topics NASA

Team Antares Report NASA

The Future of Space 2060 AFSC (NASA provided)

189
190

Appendix I. List of Acronyms

AI Artificial Intelligence

AGI Artificial General Intelligence

API Application Programming Interface

AR Augmented Reality

ARMD Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate

ASAP Aerospace Safety Advisory Panel

ASAT Anti-Satellite

B-SURE Biomanufacturing: Survival, Utility, and Reliability beyond Earth

BBC British Broadcasting Company

BCI Brain Computer Interface

CAB Chargeable Atomic Battery

CDR Carbone Dioxide Removal

CEO Chief Executive Officer

CNSA China National Space Administration

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

CONOPS Concept of Operations

COO Chief Operating Officer

COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease of 2019

CPU Central Processing Unit

CRISPR Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeats

DARPA Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency

DEI Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion

DEIA Diversity, Equity, Inclusion, and Accessibility

DHS Department of Homeland Security
191

DIY Do It Yourself

DNA Deoxyribonucleic Acid

DOD Department of Defense

DOE Department of Energy

3D, 3-D three-dimensional

EMP Electromagnetic Pulse

EPA Environmental Protection Agency

ERG Employee Resource Group

ESG Environmental, Science, and Governance

ETs Extra-Terrestrials

ETF Exchange Traded Fund

EV Electric Vehicle

FFRDCs Federally Funded Research and Development Centers

GEO Geostationary Earth Orbit

GEOINT Geospatial Intelligence

GDP Gross Domestic Product

GMO Genetically Modified Organism

GOES Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite

GPA Grade Point Average

GPS Global Positioning System

GPU Graphics Processing Unit

HBCU Historically Black Colleges and Universities

HTP High-Test Peroxide

HQ Headquarters

ID Identification

IoT Internet of Things
192

IP Intellectual Property

IR&D Independent Research and Development

ISAM In-Space Assembly and Manufacturing

ISP Internet Service Provider

ISRU In-Situ Resource Utilization

ISS International Space Station

ITAR International Traffic in Arms Regulations

JOBS Job Opportunity and Basic Skills

JPL Jet Propulsion Laboratory

JSC Johnson Space Center

KSC Kennedy Space Center

LaRC Langley Research Center

LEO Low Earth Orbit

Li-ion Lithium-Ion

MIT Massachusetts Institute of Technology

ML Machine Learning

MOSA Modular Open Systems Approach

MSD Mission Support Directorate

MSFC Marshall Space Flight Center

NAS National Academy of Sciences

NASA National Aeronautics & Space Administration

NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization

NEP Nuclear Electric Propulsion

NFL National Football League

NFTs Non-Fungible Tokens

NGOs Non-Government Organizations
193

NHTSA National Highway Traffic Safety Administration

NIAC NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts

NLP Natural Language Processing

NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

OPM Office of Personnel Management

OSAM On-Orbit Servicing, Assembly, and Manufacturing

OST Outer Space Treaty

OTPS Office of Technology, Policy, and Strategy

PFAS Polyfluoroalkyl Substances

PNT Positioning, Navigation, and Timing

R&D Research and Development

RNA Ribonucleic Acid

ROI Return on Investment

S&T Science and Technology

SciFi Science Fiction

SDG Sustainable Development Goals

SFT Strategic Foresighting Team

SME Subject Matter Expert

SOMD Space Operations Mission Directorate

SPACs Special Purpose Acquisition Companies

STEEPTS Societal, Technological, Economical, Environmental, Political, Threat, Space

STEM Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics

STMD Space Technology Mission Directorate

TRISH Translational Research Institute for Space Health

TRL Technology Readiness Level
194

TSA Transportation Security Administration

TV Television

UAE United Arab Emirates

UAVs Unmanned Aerial Vehicles

UK, U.K. United Kingdom

UN United Nations

URL Uniform Resource Locator

US, U.S. United States

USA United States of America

USG United States Government

USSF United States Space Force

VC Venture Capital

VPN Virtual Private Network

VR Virtual Reality

VUCA Volatile, Uncertain, Complex, and Ambiguous

WFP World Food Programme

WWIII World War III
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