James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) 

Independent Comprehensive Review Panel (ICRP)

FINAL REPORT

Panel Members

William F. Ballhaus, Jr. The Aerospace Corporation (Ret.)

John Casani, Chair Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Steven Dorfman Hughes Electronics (Ret.)

David Gallagher Jet Propulsion Laboratory

Garth Illingworth University of California Observatories

John Klineberg Swales Aerospace (Ret.)

David Schurr National Aeronautics and Space Administration

Industry Consultant

Rosalind Lewis The Aerospace Corporation

Executive Secretary

Marcus Lobbia The Aerospace Corporation

October 29, 2010
James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) 

Independent Comprehensive Review Panel (ICRP)

FINAL REPORT

October 29, 2010

Table of Contents 

1. Foreword ................................................................................................................. 1

2. Executive Summary ............................................................................................... 2

3. Overview ................................................................................................................. 5

4. Areas of Concern ................................................................................................... 7

4.1 Root Causes ........................................................................................................... 7 

4.2 Current Plans to Complete Development ................................................................ 8 

4.3 Changes to Diminish Risk of Future Cost Increases ............................................... 9 

4.4 Minimum Cost-to-Launch ...................................................................................... 10 

5. Findings, Assessments, and Recommendations ............................................... 12

5.1 Baseline Funding .................................................................................................. 12 

5.2 Independent Analysis Capability ........................................................................... 16 

5.3 Project Management ............................................................................................. 17 

5.4 Program Management .......................................................................................... 22 

5.5 Governance and Accountability ............................................................................. 23 

6. Other Considerations ........................................................................................... 25

6.1 Communications ................................................................................................... 25 

6.2 Potential Risk in Integration and Test Phase ........................................................ 27 

6.3 System Engineering .............................................................................................. 27 

6.4 Project Scientist and Science Team ...................................................................... 28 

7. Afterword .............................................................................................................. 29

Appendices 

Appendix A: Minimum Cost to Launch ..................................................................... 30

Appendix B: Biographies ........................................................................................... 37

Appendix C: ICRP Schedule ...................................................................................... 41 

Appendix D: ICRP Interviews .................................................................................... 42 

Appendix E: Sen. Mikulski Letter to NASA .............................................................. 44 

Appendix F: Acronyms .............................................................................................. 46
JWST-ICRP 1 Final Report

1. Foreword 

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) was endorsed in the 2000 Astronomy Decadal report 

as its top-ranked project; JWST was widely recognized as the next Great Observatory to replace 

the Hubble Space Telescope (HST). The Decadal recommendation was accepted by NASA and 

work on the Observatory began soon thereafter with support from Congress and the Office of 

Management and Budget (OMB). JWST had a prolonged technology development period 

following the selection of the prime contractor in 2002. It is difficult to predict how long it will 

take to develop a new technology, and during the period from 2002 to 2008, JWST struggled 

with several cutting-edge developments. These developments took longer and consequently cost 

more than forecast during Formulation, prompting NASA Administrator Michael Griffin to note 

that JWST had been underfunded during that period. Nonetheless, enthusiasm for the scientific 

potential of the Observatory, building upon the continuing scientific discoveries of Hubble, has 

led to great interest in completing and launching JWST. The recent 2010 Astronomy Decadal 

Survey, for instance, reaffirmed the scientific importance of JWST. As Senator Barbara Mikulski 

noted in her letter requesting an independent review of JWST, “The James Webb Space 

Telescope will be the most scientifically powerful telescope NASA has ever built—100 times 

more powerful than the Hubble, which has already rewritten our textbooks.” The required 

technology challenges have successfully been met and JWST is poised to deliver on that 

promise. As the panel set up by NASA in response to the request from Senator Mikulski, the 

ICRP recognizes the widespread support for this mission, but also the frustration that its 

continual budget problems have engendered. Given the importance for NASA to deliver this 

major space project at the cutting edge of technology, the Panel took an objective, thorough look 

at this Project and how it was managed with the goal of providing recommendations that will 

lead to a successful launch for JWST at the smallest additional investment by the nation. 
JWST-ICRP 2 Final Report

2. Executive Summary 

The problems causing cost growth and schedule delays on the JWST Project are associated with 

budgeting and program management, not technical performance. The technical performance on 

the Project has been commendable and often excellent. However, the budget baseline accepted at 

the Confirmation Review did not reflect the most probable cost with adequate reserves in each 

year of project execution. This resulted in a project that was simply not executable within the 

budgeted resources. 

Budgeting 

The estimate to complete the JWST Project at Confirmation was understated for two reasons. 

First, the budget presented by the Project at Confirmation was flawed because it was not based 

upon a current bottoms-up estimate and did not include the known threats1. As a result of poor 

program and cost control practices, the Project failed to develop a reasonable cost and schedule 

baseline. 

Second, the reserves provided were too low because they were established against a baseline 

budget that was too low, and in addition, because of budget constraints, were too low in the year 

of Confirmation and the year following (less than 20%) the two highest expenditure years. 

Leadership at Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and NASA Headquarters failed to 

independently analyze the JWST Project’s performance and recognize the flawed baseline. 

The reserve situation was recognized as a problem at the time, as was a degree of optimism in 

the integration and test (I&T) budget, which prompted NASA management to change the 

baseline launch date from June 2013 to June 2014 and to add extra reserves in the out years. 

Unaware of how badly understated the JWST Budget2

 was, NASA management thought there 

was a 70% probability of launching in June 2014 at a total lifecycle cost of nearly $5 billion with 

the Confirmation budget profile. In fact, the Project had no chance of meeting either the schedule 

or the budget profile. 

Another contributing factor was that in balancing the overall astrophysics program, the 

Astrophysics Division did not allocate the full funding amount needed to execute the Project. 

This might have required shifting resources from other programs within the Division. If this was 

not within its budgeting authority, the Division should have gone on record to the SMD and 

Agency management that its portfolio was not executable. Instead, the Division accepted the 

Project’s continuing practice of deferring work and accepted the consequence of continued cost 

and schedule growth. 

Still another contributory factor was the lack of effective oversight by GSFC of what the Project 

presented at Confirmation and at the subsequent program budget submissions. The direct cause 

for this was the interpretation of the NASA governance policy on roles, responsibilities, and 

accountabilities regarding the Center in project management and execution, due either to 

ambiguity in the NASA governance policy or to lack of effective communication between HQ 

and the Centers on this important issue. In either case, immediate corrective action is required. 

 1

 The term “threats” as used in this report refers to items of work that arise during development and are not included 

in the Project work plan and for which there is no allocated budget. 

2 At the Confirmation Review, the phrase “JWST Budget” was used to indicate the budget developed by the JWST 

Project and presented as the basis for Confirmation. For clarity, the phrase “Project Budget” is used throughout this 

report to refer to that budget. 
JWST-ICRP 3 Final Report

The flaw in the Project Budget should have been revealed as part of the Confirmation process. 

The fact that it was not reflects the lack of an effective cost and programmatic analysis capability 

at HQ. This too requires immediate corrective action. It is critical to the successful completion of 

JWST to establish credible program and cost control capabilities at the GSFC Project office and 

to establish a robust independent analytical capability at both GSFC and HQ. 

Project Management 

The Project reported a “red” assessment on cost in 7 of 9 quarterly reporting periods following 

Confirmation. The implication of these warnings—that the Project had no chance of meeting the 

planned budget and launch schedule—was interpreted by NASA leadership as a cost-control 

issue on the part of the contractor and not as a fundamentally broken estimate. Unaware of this, 

NASA worked with OMB and Congress to add funds piecemeal to the JWST Project on a yearto-year basis to help the Project, but these actions did not fix the Project in terms of providing the 

budget allocation to meet the agreed to life cycle cost and defined launch date. Again, the lack of 

an operational and effective cost and programmatic analysis capability at HQ was a contributing 

factor. Such a capability is required as a forcing function to define for senior NASA leadership 

what the current Project status is and what resources would be required to execute the Project. 

The JWST Project Office at GSFC should be restructured to ensure that the Project is now 

managed with a focus appropriate to the Implementation Phase. Particular focus needs to be 

given to managing the project to the Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and Launch Readiness Date (LRD), 

and to developing robust I&T plans, consistent with delivering an Observatory that will meet its 

science requirements. The flawed practice by the Project of not adequately accounting for threats 

in the budgeting process needs immediate correction. 

Essential to fixing these problems is moving the JWST management and accountability from the 

Astrophysics Division to a new organizational entity at HQ that would have responsibility only 

for the management and execution of JWST. 

Minimum Cost-to-Launch 

The earliest launch date possible—and hence the minimum cost to complete—is September 2015 

and would require an additional ~$250 million above the current FY 2011 President’s Budget 

profile in both 2011 and 2012. In addition, the critical management change noted above, along 

with the restructuring of the JWST Project office, supplemented by additional changes outlined 

in the report, must go “hand-in-hand” with additional funding. 

In the time available, it was not possible to do an independent estimate of the cost-to-complete. 

As such, the Panel approached the question from several different points of view as described 

later in this report, leading to a judgment that the total LCC will be in the range of $6.2 billion to 

$6.8 billion. The Panel adopted an LCC of $6.5 billion on which to base its profile. Going 

forward, a bottoms-up estimate validated by an independent analysis and at least two 

independent cost estimates (ICEs) is required. Although not explicitly accounted for in the Panel 

numbers, there may be a number of low probability threats whose occurrence could cause an 

additional year delay in launch and a correspondingly higher cost. 

In providing these assessments and recommendations, the Panel is fully aware of the problem in 

adjusting budgets at this late date—especially in the face of the nation’s fiscal challenges. 

Nevertheless, despite management and budget shortcomings, the JWST Project has invested 

funds wisely in advancing the necessary technologies and reducing technical risk such that the 
JWST-ICRP 4 Final Report

funds invested to date have not been wasted. The management approach, however, needs to 

change to focus on overall life cycle cost and a well-defined launch date. 
JWST-ICRP 5 Final Report

3. Overview 

ICRP Task 

In a June 29, 2010, letter to NASA Administrator Charles Bolden (see Appendix E), Senator 

Barbara Mikulski, Chair of the Senate Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, and Science, 

expressed concern about JWST cost growth and schedule delays and asked that a panel be 

charged to conduct an independent and comprehensive review of JWST and to carefully examine 

four areas: 

1. The technical, management, and budgetary root causes of cost growth and schedule 

delay. 

2. Current plans to complete development, with particular attention to the integration 

and test program and management structure. 

3. Changes that could reduce cost and schedule or diminish the risk of future cost 

increases without compromising Observatory performance. 

4. The minimum cost to launch JWST, along with the associated launch date and 

budget profile, including adequate reserves. 

In response, the NASA Associate Administrator convened the Independent Comprehensive 

Review Panel (ICRP) and charged it with providing a response to Senator Mikulski. 

The ICRP was asked to pursue its task with an emphasis on reviewing existing data from an 

independent, integrated perspective and on providing recommendations based on inputs from 

existing teams, as well as from information gained as a result of investigations of areas the Panel 

believed required further evaluation. 

Biographies of the Panel members and support staff appear in Appendix B. 

ICRP Schedule 

The Panel performed its activities through several weeks of investigation, followed by 

deliberations and generation of the final report. The schedule of activities was as follows: 

 Panel kickoff: August 23, 2010 

 Investigation: August 24–September 19 

o Fact-finding interviews with key Project personnel, stakeholders, and subject 

matter experts 

o Analysis of data received to date and relevant prior studies 

o Independent technical and programmatic assessments as defined by the Panel 

 Final Panel deliberations and initial report generation: September 20–October 1 

 Revision, editing, and production of draft report: October 2–21 

 Briefing to NASA HQ, including limited release of draft report: October 22 

 Revision, editing, and production of final report: October 22–29 

A detailed schedule showing specific meetings and activities appears in Appendix C. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 6

Methodology 

The ICRP proceeded through a fact-finding–investigation process and deliberations, addressing 

the causes for past cost and schedule growth and the four areas identified above as follows: 

 Review of prior studies and Project data that address causes of the cost and schedule 

growth, including integration and test, management structure, and budgetary issues; 

 Technical and programmatic review of the Project’s existing data, including plans for 

future activities; 

 Interviews with key Project personnel and relevant stakeholders; 

 Evaluation of the cost and schedule estimate at complete for the current plan; 

 Independent technical and programmatic assessments of the current plan tasked to the 

Panel’s support staff; and 

 Development of the “minimum cost-to-launch” option for JWST, incorporating inputs 

from several different sources. 

The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace) supported the ICRP with independent technical and 

programmatic analysis as needed to meet the objectives listed above. Administrative functions 

for the Panel were handled by the Executive Secretary, also from Aerospace. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 7

4. Areas of Concern 

In her letter to the Administrator, Senator Mikulski singled out four areas for careful 

consideration. This section provides a summary of the Panel’s observations regarding those 

areas, while Section 5 contains detailed findings, assessments, and recommendations on the 

specific issues uncovered. 

4.1 Root Causes 

The root causes for the recent cost and schedule growth in JWST can be traced to what occurred 

at the Confirmation Review in July 2008 and to the execution of the Project following 

Confirmation. 

Two fundamental mistakes were made at the time of Confirmation. First, the Project Budget 

presented for Confirmation was not based upon a current, bottoms-up estimate of projected costs. 

Furthermore, it did not reflect the threats against the budget that existed at the time. 

Consequently, the budget approved at Confirmation understated the real requirements. Second, 

the Agency Program Management Council (APMC) did not fully recognize the inadequacy of 

the Project Budget, although they did add contingency (reserves) to cover unanticipated 

problems that were likely to occur on such a complex project. However, there were two issues 

with the Confirmation budget decision: the reserves added to the Project Budget were 

inadequate, and the reserves were skewed to the out years so that inadequate reserves were 

provided in the years needed. 

NASA policy generally sets budgets for development projects at a 70% confidence level. A 

project budgeted at 70% confidence has a 70% chance at being completed at or below its budget. 

In addition to a 70% confidence budget, which implies approximately 20% reserves, the GSFC 

standard for development projects requires 25% in unencumbered reserves in each budget year to 

address the unanticipated problems that occur in complex space system development projects. 

For JWST, the Agency reserves were established against an unreasonably low budget, and much 

of the reserves were allocated to the out years, not in the near-term years needed to avoid 

deferring work. For a project as challenging as JWST, in a portfolio without substantial 

flexibility, an 80% confidence budget would more likely represent a most probable cost, 

including maintaining 25% reserves in each year to deal with unanticipated problems. The 

constraints of the operating plan precluded budgeting for adequate reserves in FY 2009 and FY 

2010, but the overall reserves were too low due to the incorrectly developed Project baseline cost 

estimate. 

After Confirmation, the Project failed to change its management approach to be consistent with 

the accepted practice of managing a project to a required LCC and LRD, as agreed to at 

Confirmation. Prior to Confirmation, the Project managed to stay within its yearly budget 

allocation by deferring planned work in the budget year to a later year as a cost-control measure. 

This was not an effective LCC control measure since costs were not contained; rather they were 

simply postponed and funded out of a subsequent year’s allocation at a higher cost (typically 2–3 

times higher), due to inefficiencies visited upon other dependent tasks. The yearly budget 

allocation was determined primarily by affordability considerations, and not by an LCC 

commitment or a firm launch date. An approach of working to a budget cap with little reserves is 

acceptable during the preliminary design and risk reduction phase of a program, since it is rarely 

possible to estimate the LCC of highly complex, technology-driven projects before completing a 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 8

preliminary design. In fact, the cardinal objective prior to Confirmation should be to retire 

project risk by developing technology to the point where the cost-to-complete can be reasonably 

estimated and an integrated project can be developed as a precondition for approval to proceed 

beyond Confirmation. The JWST Project did just that. 

The management approach leading up to Confirmation was to plan work for every available 

dollar during each fiscal year. Rather than set aside reserve money to maintain scheduled work 

plans, the Project chose to defer lower priority work to future years. In this way, the Project was 

able to plan more work in each year, albeit at the risk of having to defer some of that work. The 

corollary effect of this was to increase the life cycle cost due to the inefficiencies incurred with 

deferring work and also to prolong the duration of the Formulation Phase. While effective albeit 

not ideal during the technology development phase before Confirmation, this management 

paradigm was not well-suited to sound post-Confirmation execution, where the commitment is to 

complete the development based on the expectation of a reasonably bounded LCC and a firm 

launch date. The commitment by the Project to manage the Program to the cost and schedule 

implied to Congress, OMB, and HQ senior management at the time of Confirmation was not 

carried out. 

Rather than change its management paradigm after Confirmation, the Project continued the 

practice of deferring work into future years to stay within annual budget commitments. 

Management at both the Astrophysics Division and the Agency level were aware of this practice 

and tacitly condoned it. This is not consistent with managing a project to cost and schedule. 

Senior management at GSFC, the Science Missions Directorate (SMD), and the Agency should 

have recognized the major impact to the LCC and LRD commitment that would result from the 

practice of deferring work to future years. The implication of this should have been clear from 

the regular monthly reporting, but prompt and effective remedial action was lacking. There are 

three reasons why this occurred: 

1. The independent program analysis function within the Agency did not 

adequately penetrate the LCC and LRD implications of the Project Budget 

submissions, which led to an under-budgeted project that had to defer work 

each year with adverse effects. 

2. Inadequate programmatic oversight within the Agency allowed generally poor 

cost management and reporting practices by the Project to go unchallenged 

during Program execution. 

3. The JWST Project was not managed in a way appropriate for the 

Implementation Phase. 

4.2 Current Plans to Complete Development 

Overall, the JWST Project’s hardware development program is progressing well, with the 

majority of flight hardware manufacturing and testing yet to be completed, but apparently on 

track with many of the challenging technology developments reasonably in hand, owing to 

significant accomplishments in the Formulation Phase. However, major uncertainties remain in 

the integration and test program, as noted by the Test Assessment Team (TAT) in their report of 

August 2010. 

The TAT identified a significant number of opportunities to adjust the remaining 

cryogenic/optical testing at GSFC and JSC that would improve the overall technical and 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 9

programmatic risk to the mission. This would be accomplished by reducing the planned timeline 

and allowing for the earliest possible detection of critical problems, such as those that might 

require opening the test chamber and implementing a second, corrective cryogenic test cycle. 

The TAT concluded that testing at GSFC can be reduced from 14 to 10 months and that testing at 

JSC could be reduced from 167 to 90 days. Although there would be a small but acceptable 

reduction in prelaunch predictability of performance, there would be no predictable loss of 

science capability. 

However, a significant—and not easily quantifiable—risk remains that problems will be found 

that either directly threaten mission success and/or do not allow an adequate characterization of 

the risk to mission success. The Program needs to establish appropriate reserves to address such 

problems. To date this has not been the case; the schedule and test plan activities seem to be 

continually evolving. This is because the Project, responding to crises and problems, and without 

adequate reserves, was in a continual re-planning mode. 

The issue of the integration and test program structure and management was treated in detail in 

the TAT Report and will not be repeated here in full. However, key problems identified by the 

TAT included gaps in the test plans and the lack of an effective and cost-efficient test program. 

The Panel endorses the recommendations in the TAT Report as necessary corrective actions to 

contain future JWST cost and schedule erosion. 

4.3 Changes to Diminish Risk of Future Cost Increases 

Based on the issues present in the current plans to complete, the Panel has identified changes to 

address the root cause issues discussed in the report, plus ones that could be implemented to 

diminish the risk of future cost increases and delays in the launch date. These are summarized 

below. Further discussion and the full set of recommendations appear in Sections 5 and 6. 

 Move the JWST management and accountability from the Astrophysics Division to a 

new organizational entity at HQ having responsibility only for the management and 

execution of JWST. 

 Restructure the JWST Project Office at GSFC to ensure that the Project is managed 

with a focus on the LCC and LRD, as well as on meeting science requirements 

appropriate to the Implementation Phase. 

 Assign management and execution responsibility for the JWST Project to the GSFC 

Director, with accountability to the Science Mission Directorate Associate 

Administrator at HQ. 

 Establish the Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation (IPCE) as the 

recognized Agency estimating capability, responsible for validating the most probable 

cost and schedule estimates developed by projects and for developing ICEs for major 

milestone reviews. 

 Develop a new JWST baseline cost and schedule plan-to-complete that incorporates 

adequate contingency and schedule reserve in each year. Include a realistic allowance 

for all threats in the yearly budget submission. Budget at 80% confidence, and require 

25% reserves in each year through launch. Commission a new ICE, reconcile the new 

plan with it, and update the plan appropriately. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 10

4.4 Minimum Cost-to-Launch 

The minimum cost-to-launch JWST will be achieved by launching at the earliest possible date, 

consistent with safely completing the work needed to assure a successful mission. The earliest 

achievable launch date, previously thought to be June 2014, now appears to be September 2015, 

largely driven by inadequate reserves that have led to the Project deferring work and 

accumulating delays since the Confirmation Review in 2008. 

This report discusses several different techniques used to estimate the required funding profile, 

including adequate reserves, to support the September 2015 launch date. The two primary 

estimates came from a request to the GSFC Director for an estimate for the minimum cost-tolaunch and a corresponding launch date, and from an adjustment by the Panel to the Mission 

Critical Design Review (MCDR) baseline budget to include the known threats and liens and to 

add reserves by individual Project element as judged appropriate by the Panel. These two 

estimates were cross-checked against a historical cost growth curve and a complexity assessment 

model, both developed by Aerospace. Given all these inputs, and projecting a continuing Project 

Cost Performance Index (CPI) of 0.8, the Panel developed a budget profile for the minimum 

cost-to-launch, including completion of commissioning six months later, as shown in Table 4.1 

below. Further details, including a graphical representation, appear in Appendix A. 

Table 4.1 ICRP assessment of the minimum cost-to-launch for a September 2015 LRD. 

This assessment indicates that the LCC for JWST will be approximately $6.5 billion. To put this 

in context, the Hubble cost-to-launch was $4.7 billion in FY 2010 dollars; the cost through SM-1 

in 1993, when Hubble’s mirror problem was fixed, was $5.8 billion. 

As described in the TAT Report, the Project can avoid some cost (and further cost growth) by 

simply accepting greater uncertainty in the accuracy to which flight performance can be 

predicted before launch. This does not imply any erosion in confidence that acceptable 

performance will be achieved. 

To meet this schedule (launch in September 2015; end of six-month commissioning in February 

2016)—and to meet the goal of “minimum-cost-to-launch”—would require an additional ~$1.4 

billion over the current life cycle cost estimate in the FY 2011 President’s Budget from FY 2011 

through the first half of FY 2016, including an additional ~$250 million in both FY 2011 and FY 

2012. The level of the near-term increases needed to fund the lowest cost approach to launch, 

particularly in FY 2011, is a challenge to the Agency, OMB, and Congress. Yet this is what is 

needed to put JWST on a recovery path when complemented by appropriate management and 

structural changes in the Project. If such funds are not available, particularly in FY 2011, the 

launch date will slip into 2016 (and probably even later), and the overall cost will likely grow by 

amounts that exceed the additional funds required in FY 2011 and FY 2012. The derivation of 

these totals and the rationale for these amounts are more fully discussed in Appendix A. 

It was not possible to develop an independent and more in-depth estimate in the time available. 

Given that a bottoms-up cost estimate has not been done since the contract was awarded, a 

LRD FY11, 

$M 

FY12, 

$M 

FY13, 

$M 

FY14, 

$M 

FY15, 

$M 

FY16, 

$M 

FY11–16, 

$B 

LCC 

$B 

ICRP 

Assessment 

9/15 710 640 530 450 420 180 2.9 6.5 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 11

bottoms-up estimate is needed for the entire the JWST Project. The estimate should be validated 

by an independent analysis of the basis of estimates and the underlying assumptions and at least 

two ICEs. Although not explicitly accounted for in these numbers, there are a number of 

recognized low probability, high-consequence threats that, should they occur, could cause an 

additional year delay in launch and a correspondingly higher cost. 
JWST-ICRP 12 Final Report

5. Findings, Assessments, and Recommendations 

This section contains the ICRP Findings, Assessments, and Recommendations. In the context of 

this section— 

 Findings are meant to be statements of fact, i.e., objective statements without opinion 

and without prejudice. 

 Assessments are subjective and represent opinions of the Panel about what the Findings 

could imply as adverse consequences to the Program, and are intended to lay the basis 

and rationale for the Recommendations. 

 Recommendations are subjective and represent opinions of the Panel as to how NASA 

might deal with the consequences of the Findings. 

The ICRP took reasonable care to validate the Findings as factual through dialog with the 

interviewees, and in some cases by asking the principals themselves to do a validation. However, 

the ICRP is solely responsible for the Assessments and Recommendations, the validity of which 

are based on the experience and knowledge of the Panel. 

The root causes for recent cost growth and schedule delay are traceable to the Project baseline 

established at the Confirmation Review and to the Project’s implementation practices following 

Confirmation. The Project was hampered by earlier poor decisions and funding problems and 

went into the Confirmation Review carrying some burden of those past problems. Nonetheless, 

the Confirmation Review is when the Project should have been put on an executable plan to 

launch, with the appropriate management and oversight structure and the needed budget profile. 

Therefore, the ICRP focused on the assessment of cost and schedule growth and root cause 

following Confirmation. 

5.1 Baseline Funding 

The Project Budget baseline adopted at the July 2008 Confirmation Review was flawed. Not 

only was the budget inadequate to envelope the scope of the Program, but the allocated reserves 

proved to be insufficient given that the Project Budget was far too low and the reserves were 

skewed to the out years. 

Findings 

 The Project Budget presented for Confirmation contained no allowance for known 

threats. 

 The Project Budget presented for Confirmation was incorporated into the FY 

2010 President’s Budget Request. 

 It is NASA policy (NPR 7120.5D) to budget space system development programs 

to a 70% confidence level. 

 The GSFC policy for reserves (GPR 7120.7) is at least 25% per year at 

Confirmation. 

Assessment 

NASA did not establish an adequate cost and schedule baseline at the Confirmation Review 

milestone. The Project Budget was inadequate because the Project did not include an allowance 

for threats that were known at the time nor did it account for the prior year earned value 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 13

performance of the major contractors or the Center. Furthermore, the Project did not do a full 

bottoms-up cost estimate in preparation for the Preliminary Design Review (PDR), the NonAdvocate Review (NAR), or the Confirmation Review. 

Figure 5.1 shows the Project Budget (Phases A–E) and Confirmation Review baseline. The 

difference between the two was identified as Contingency and is equal to the amount available 

for reserves. The highly unusual cost profile that peaked at PDR was explained on the basis that 

some major elements of the Project were already past their PDRs. While the Confirmation 

Review did provide reserve funds, they were really too low, given the low Project Budget 

request. This led to the Confirmation Baseline being “broken” from the start, since the available 

contingency was not adequate to cover the threats and liens that were known at the time, but 

which were not included in the Project Budget. 

Figure 5.1 Plot of the Confirmation Review baseline budget (Phases A–E) and the available 

contingency. 

The phasing of reserves accepted at the Confirmation Review was low in the near term. The 

Baseline Funding profile established at Confirmation (the black line in Figure 5.1) put the 

majority of the reserves in the out years. 

The resulting percentage Contingency, shown in Table 5.1, appears unnecessarily large except in 

FY 2009, apparently reflecting recognition by the APMC of the questionable Project Budget rolloff profile. Recognizing the implication of the roll-off, the APMC assigned an action to reexamine the Project Plan and determined the need to provide additional funding in the next 

budget cycle. 

 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 14

 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 

Confirmation Baseline 439 429 365 304 260 

Project Budget, $M 376 313 191 156 135 

Contingency against Project Budget, $M 63 116 174 148 125 

Contingency as % of Project Budget 17% 37% 91% 95% 93% 

Table 5.1 Contingency established at Confirmation.

As shown in Figure 5.1, the Project Budget showed that peak funding would occur in the same 

year as the Project PDR and that Project costs would go down by 16% in FY 2009 and 58% in 

FY 2011. Historically, the cost profiles of projects continue to increase after PDR. Based on the 

technical status of the Project, the prior deferral of spacecraft development, and the complexity 

of the integration and testing phase, this was a highly suspect budget profile. 

To develop a sense of the effect of including an allowance for threats and reserves, the Panel 

adjusted the Project Budget by incorporating the dollarized value of the threats that were on the 

Project books at the time and 25% reserves. The result is shown in Figure 5.2. The figure clearly 

shows that a funding shortfall would exist in FY 2008, FY 2009, and FY 2010. For reference, 

and as a point of comparison, the 70% confidence IPAO ICE is also shown. 

Table 5.2 shows that $340 million is the cumulative difference from FY 2008 to launch between 

the Confirmation Baseline and the Adjusted Project Budget. The cumulative difference between 

the Confirmation Baseline and the ICE is $640 million. 

Figure 5.2 The Adjusted Project Budget (Phases A–E) and the IPAO ICE. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 15

FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 Total2

Difference between the 

Adjusted Project Budget1

 and 

the Confirmation Baseline, $M 

123 57 34 18 8 69 32 – 341 

Difference between IPAO ICE 

(Phase A–D only) and the 

Confirmation Baseline (Phase 

A–D only), $M 

– 70 45 73 134 121 153 47 643 

Table 5.2 Funding differences from the Confirmation Baseline.

1 Adjusted Project Budget = Project Budget (Phase A–D), plus threats and liens known at the time and 25% 

reserves per year. 2 Due to rounding, totals may not match sum of components. 

Finally, Figure 5.3 shows that the Project Budget offered at Confirmation was nothing more than 

a reflection of the FY 2009 President’s Budget Request (developed in the 2007–2008 timeframe 

and publicly released in February 2008) suggesting that budget profile was certainly not 

reflective of a current budget estimate or current cost plan. 

Also shown is the FY 2010 President’s Budget Request reflecting two things: 

 First, a major increase in FY 2008 to accommodate the actual cost incurred by the 

Project in FY 2008 (nearly $70 million more than that projected at Confirmation), once 

again illustrating that the Project Budget presented at Confirmation was not based on 

current cost plan. 

 Second, a one-year shift in the internal LRD from June 2013, which was the basis of the 

Project Budget, to June 2014, as recommended by the SRB and accepted by HQ. 

Figure 5.3 Confirmation Baseline (black) and the President’s Budget Requests for FY 2009 

(yellow) and FY 2010 (blue). 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 16

Recommendations 

1. Develop a new baseline cost and schedule plan-to-complete that incorporates adequate 

contingency and schedule reserve in each year. 

2. Include a realistic allowance for all threats in the yearly budget submission. 

3. Budget at 80% confidence, and require 25% reserves in each year through launch. 

4. Commission a new ICE, reconcile the new plan with it, and update the plan appropriately. 

5.2 Independent Analysis Capability 

As described above, the Project Budget was fundamentally flawed, but HQ also lacked a 

robust independent cost and program analysis capability and accepted the Project Budget 

as a true reflection of the estimated cost-to-go, i.e., containing an appropriate allowance for 

all known threats and liens. 

Independent analysis capability within the Agency plays a crucial role in checking project 

budget plans. Historically, the Agency had such a capability that reported to the 

Administrator, but that function has not existed for over a decade. 

Findings 

 The SRB provided the independent assessment to the APMC at the JWST 

Confirmation Review. 

 The IPAO provides support to the SRB in the form of ICEs and other logistical 

support. 

 The approved Confirmation Baseline budget was significantly less than the IPAO 

ICE. 

 The JWST SRB is a non-consensus body. 

 The JWST SRB chair is not a NASA employee. 

Assessment 

A cardinal purpose of the Confirmation Review process used by NASA is to establish a 

programmatic and technical baseline defining the Implementation Phase for a mission. As 

discussed above, significant flaws existed in the Confirmation baseline for JWST. While there 

are ways this could have been recognized at the time, the independent cost and programmatic 

function of the Agency was not sufficiently capable to reveal the fundamental flaw in the 

baseline cost. 

The IPAO is the professional cost-estimating capability within NASA and is located at Langley 

Research Center; it is organizationally part of IPCE. The IPAO provides support to the SRB, 

including the preparation of ICEs, but the SRB has complete discretion regarding if and how to 

use that support. The ICE, prepared in support of the SRB, was $0.5 billion more than the SRB 

recommended and more than the APMC ultimately approved. 

IPCE should be accountable for the quality and completeness of IPAO products, and should be 

the organization specifically responsible for using those products in fulfilling its fiduciary 

responsibility to the Agency. Clearly, this did not happen in the case of JWST. 

The SRB provides a mechanism for conducting independent reviews at regular milestones, and 

the APMC relies on the SRB to provide an independent assessment of the readiness of a project 

to proceed to implementation. The JWST SRB is a non-consensus body, and its 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 17

recommendations are at the sole decision of its Chair, who is a non-Government person. The 

JWST SRB serves with integrity and commitment, but it performs an advisory function only and 

does not have an accountable fiduciary responsibility to the Agency as does the IPCE. 

Recommendation 

5. Establish IPCE as the recognized Agency estimating capability, responsible for validating 

the most probable cost and schedule estimates. 

6. Hold IPCE accountable for developing ICEs for major milestone reviews, reporting 

directly to the Agency PMC and not simply acting as a support organization to the SRB. 

5.3 Project Management 

A different project management paradigm is required during the Implementation Phase (after 

Confirmation) than before. Deferring work from one year to the next as a technique for staying 

within the yearly funding cap necessarily increases the run out cost and incurs schedule slip, and 

thus contravenes the Agency’s commitment to the LCC and LRD made at Confirmation. 

Project management requires the identification and reporting of threats and liens and an ongoing 

assessment of the adequacy of available reserves to cover them plus an allowance for the yet to 

be recognized ones. 

Findings 

 Since Confirmation, the Project has continued its practice of deferring work in 

order to stay within its yearly funding cap. 

 The Spacecraft Element schedule has been continuously delayed relative to the 

rest of the Observatory. 

 JWST Project does not use likelihood of occurrence to determine an expected 

value for ISIM threats, whereas the prime contractor tracks likelihood as well as 

consequence. 

Assessment 

Deferred Work 

Managing costs on a year-to-year basis led to deferred work and life cycle cost increases. 

Inadequate reserves in the period immediately following Confirmation resulted in a nonexecutable Project. Without the reserves needed to fund the exigencies normally experienced in 

the course of development, the Project simply continued the practice of deferring some of the 

work planned in the current year to a future year. Due to the inefficiencies created when 

deferring already planned work, this led to escalating increases in the life cycle cost of JWST 

and continued erosion of the schedule. 

Experience shows that deferred work potentially doubles or triples costs, due to the impact of the 

deferrals on other work. This leads to a cascading effect wherein the cost of delayed activities 

further reduces the limited real reserves available to the project in later years, creating an 

escalating spiral for project life cycle cost. As the JWST Project was underfunded from 

Confirmation, the result has been a substantial impact to life cycle cost and schedule. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 18

The practice of not reflecting known threats and liens, along with inadequate reserves, can be 

seen in the Project’s budget submissions at the Confirmation Review in 2008, during the POP09 

budget cycle, and at the Program Budget proposal at the time of the MCDR in April 2010 (see 

Figures 5.4 through 5.6). 

Figure 5.4 shows the Confirmation Baseline (black line) and the Project Budget approved at 

Confirmation (blue bars). The difference between the two is the contingency, which was 

considered adequate to cover the needed reserves as discussed above (also see Figure 5.1). When 

the threats and liens, known at the time of Confirmation (red segments), and 25% contingency 

(green segments), are added to the budget, the reason for deferring work becomes apparent. 

Figure 5.4 Confirmation Baseline (black) compared to the Project Budget adjusted for threats and 

liens plus reserves. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 19

Figure 5.5 shows the Project budget proposal developed in spring 2009. The figure shows the 

actual for FY 2008, an increase of almost $70 million from the Project Baseline. Additional 

funds were added in FY 2008 to cover the FY 2008 actual, but by then it was too late to avoid 

deferment of $50 million to $70 million of work planned in FY 2008 to FY 2009, affirming the 

need for the 25% reserves amount suggested in the Confirmation Baseline. Had 25% reserves 

been available throughout FY 2008, it is unlikely that the Project would have had to defer any of 

the planned work to 2009. Note the increase in the budget plan for FY 2009 from the 

Confirmation Baseline to the POP09 budget; also note also that the threats have grown in that 

year as well. 

Figure 5.5 POP09 Budget Submit (black) compared to the Project FY 2009 Budget adjusted for 

updated threats and liens plus reserves. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 20

The cascading effect of deferred work can be seen in Figure 5.6. An effective cost and program 

analysis function at the Agency level would have alerted executive management to this 

impending crisis. More properly, this should have been recognized by Center management 

before the Project was allowed to proceed on this basis. This can be attributed to the combination 

of the Center’s expectation that program execution, and hence oversight, was the province of the 

SMD Program Office—and to the fact that the Center lacked the capability to do its own 

independent (of the Project) cost and program analysis. 

Figure 5.6 CDR Baseline (FY 2012 Interim Budget Submit) (black) compared to the MCDR Project 

Budget (April 2010) adjusted for updated threats and liens plus reserves. 

It is clear from these observations that reserves on the order of 25% per year on the cost-to-go 

are required to allow Project work to proceed on schedule, to ensure that the cost remains within 

the LCC commitment, and to conform to the requirements of GSFC GPR 7105.7. 

Threats and Liens 

Differing definitions of threats, liens, and encumbrances have led to confusion. Threats and liens 

are tracked at both GSFC and NGAS (which includes those from subcontractors such as Ball 

Aerospace), but they are not included in the Project Budget until formalized and are not clearly 

communicated to SMD. This is illustrated by the $90 million “surprise,” wherein SMD claims 

that NGAS submitted a large overrun shortly after the Confirmation Review in 2008. In fact, this 

“surprise” was the result of known threats for which the Project had asked the contractor to 

submit a formal proposal. Had the threats been included in the Project estimate, only the 

difference between the contractor’s proposed cost and the Project’s “should cost” estimate would 

have been a surprise. It is also noteworthy that the different groups track threats differently: 

NGAS uses likelihood estimates to determine an expected value (EV) of the dollarized threats, 

whereas GSFC management does not use EV to evaluate threats. Nonetheless, tracking threats 

more openly would lead to improved understanding of the risks to the budget, regardless of how 

the threats are characterized or their cost likelihood is reported. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 21

The convoluted process for transitioning from threat to lien to encumbrance and the reporting of 

those items makes it easy to misunderstand the financial position of the JWST Project. The 

Project defines a threat as a problem that might produce a funding or schedule impact. Using 

judgment, a dollarized consequence is assigned to each threat and the threat is tracked via 

standard risk mitigation processes. When it is determined that a threat it has a 100% likelihood of 

occurrence, meaning it cannot be mitigated, it becomes a lien. At that point, it is used to 

encumber the budget, meaning that funds can be expended against it. While the process appears 

reasonable, there is lack of clarity regarding when the different transition points occur and how 

well the likelihood is evaluated, particularly since the JWST Project does not consider likelihood 

assessment in tracking its own ISIM-generated threats. 

Project Implementation 

Formulation and Implementation phases require different management approaches. Over $1.5 

billion was spent over 6+ years on the Phase A/B effort, an unusually high investment for the 

Formulation Phase of a project. The Project has clearly done an excellent job in developing and 

maturing several key technologies. Significant funds were spent early and appropriately in order 

to get these challenging technologies to Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 6. This reflects a 

respect for lessons learned on numerous other Department of Defense (DoD) and NASA projects 

(Hubble is cited as an example where this was not done). However, even after reaching TRL 6, 

significant further engineering is needed to build and qualify the flight hardware. 

While there has been a significant retirement of risk, JWST is still a high-risk project with 

substantial work remaining. The Implementation Phase (C/D) of a project typically has different 

areas of focus than that of the earlier Formulation Phase. Phase A/B activities may require 

different types of personnel to focus on interfaces, I&T, ground systems, mass margins, and 

related areas, which reviews of the I&T plan (such as the TAT Report) can help inform. The 

recent management change at NGAS, wherein a new JWST Project manager with I&T 

experience replaced a predecessor who had worked on the Project from its outset, is an 

appropriate example of how a different approach is needed in Phase C/D of a project. 

Slipping the schedule of the JWST spacecraft element has increased risk. The CDR for the 

spacecraft is still months away and little work has been done because of the focus on other areas. 

The rationale for delaying the spacecraft CDR appears to have been to address the more 

challenging technology areas of the mission early to retire risk and avoid major cost and 

schedule impacts, but is really just another example of deferring work to fit within an overconstrained budget profile. This had the unintended consequence of placing the burden of 

interface accommodation largely on the spacecraft. It is thus likely that thermal, mechanical, and 

dynamics issues will need to be “absorbed” by the spacecraft, which could create significant cost 

and schedule impacts to the spacecraft element going forward. 

Recommendations 

7. Restructure the JWST Project Office at GSFC to ensure that the Project is managed with a 

focus on the LCC and LRD, as well as on meeting science requirements appropriate to the 

Implementation Phase. 

8. Fund all existing deferred work in FY 2011 to get the Project back on track. 

9. Implement a threats and liens system that is consistently applied across all elements of the 

Project. 

10. Assess and track the likelihood of threats at the GSFC management level to more clearly 

delineate the process for transitioning from threats to liens. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 22

11. Manage and assess contingency in terms of its adequacy to cover unknown and as yet 

unrecognized threats using the industry standard process of assessing the dollarized EV of 

existing threats. 

12. Accelerate the spacecraft element schedule to more closely bring development into 

alignment with other Project elements. 

5.4 Program Management 

The five-year budget plans for projects are the responsibility of the Directorate and the 

relevant Division at NASA HQ. Those entities have a responsibility for ensuring that the 

budgets they develop for OMB and Congress are based on executable plans, especially for 

major projects. 

Findings 

 The Astrophysics Division’s overriding management objective is to provide the 

most balanced science program across the Division within the resources provided 

to it. 

 The budget for JWST in FY 2010 amounts to approximately 40% of the 

Astrophysics Division budget. 

 Substantial decreases in the Astrophysics budget over time have put significant 

pressure on all programs in the portfolio. 

Assessment 

The Astrophysics Division Director appropriately noted his responsibility to manage his program 

to balance the overall science within the Astrophysics Program, i.e., to best meet the needs and 

interests of the broad science community given the funding available to the Division. However, 

when the Division undertakes a flagship project of the scale of JWST, it takes on an added 

responsibility to ensure that the project is delivered on schedule and within budget. The Division 

is now accountable for meeting NASA commitments to the Administration and Congress to 

execute the projects assigned to it within the resources and the timeline promised. This is 

particularly important for very large and expensive missions like JWST, where any problems can 

rapidly become very costly to address. In effect, a commitment to begin funding a flagship 

mission such as JWST requires an understanding by all stakeholders that the Project must have 

priority in available funding. 

In balancing the overall astrophysics program, the Division did not allocate the full funding 

amount needed to execute the JWST Project, arguably because that might have required shifting 

resources from other programs within the Division. If that were not allowed within its budgeting 

authority, the Division should have gone on record to the SMD and Agency management that its 

portfolio was not executable. Instead, it accepted the Project’s continuing practice of deferring 

work and accepted the consequence of continued cost and schedule growth. 

The fact that JWST comprises some 40% of the Astrophysics Division annual budget creates 

challenges in funding the Project adequately while balancing the science programs across the 

Division. The proper course of action would have been either to reprogram funds from other 

activities in the Division or to insist on a re-baseline action. The Astrophysics Division and SMD 

did neither. 

There is a need for adequate funding of flagship science missions without decimating the 

portfolio. The yearly funding requirements for large flagship projects can exceed the full cost of 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 23

a typical small science mission. Funding the Project with 25% reserves per year could mean that 

the start of new or smaller missions might need to be delayed. In the peak funding years, this can 

amount to $100 million or more per year, enough to support a small mission. While the 

Astrophysics Division Director is under pressure to balance the science priorities with 

programmatic commitments, flagship missions must be funded with the full level of reserves 

needed to fulfill the Agency commitments to Congress and the Administration. 

The JWST Program reports to NASA HQ rated the Project “red” on cost in 7 of 9 quarterly 

reporting periods following Confirmation. Senior management at HQ, already aware that the 

reserves in FY 2009 were low, reacted by adding resources in FY 2009 and taking action to add 

additional funding in the next operating plan submission. However, the amounts envisioned were 

substantially less than needed, being premised on the flawed budget plan. Funding added in 2009 

and in early 2010, while viewed as a fix at the time, was simply insufficient given the size of the 

budget mismatch and the rate at which the Project was both accruing threats and converting them 

into liens. By the time new funds were available, the converted threats used all the new funds. 

Meanwhile, additional threats and problems had arisen, necessitating additional new funds. 

An ongoing cost and program analysis capability independent of the Project at the Agency level 

is required to properly inform senior management and executive leadership and to prevent 

decision making that is based on flawed budget and execution information. 

Recommendation 

13. Move the JWST management and accountability from the Astrophysics Division to a new 

organizational entity at HQ having responsibility only for the management and execution 

of JWST. 

5.5 Governance and Accountability 

Projects of the scale of JWST are complex, with many interfaces within the Agency. Clear 

lines of accountability are required to ensure that projects are executed consistent with the 

budgetary and performance expectations of the Agency, OMB, and Congress. 

Findings 

 The NASA policy on governance (NPD 1000.01a) states that “Programs and 

projects are executed at the NASA Centers under the direction of the Mission 

Directorate Associate Administrators. The Center Director has specifically 

delegated Technical Authority responsibilities related to projects.” 

 Since the Confirmation Review, the Project has been rated “red” on cost for 7 of 9 

quarterly assessment rating periods. 

Assessment 

Corrective action taken by executive officials in response to the “red” reports was not sufficient 

to correct the problems. The inadequacy of reserves in the early years was recognized at the time 

of Confirmation, but not the flaws in the cost baseline. “Red” conditions showed up in the cost 

reports within weeks after Confirmation, but these were taken as expected given the recognized 

reserve weakness. However, the inadequacy of the Project Budget, called for much larger 

funding than management anticipated. Funding was added on several occasions to assist the 

Project, in the belief that it would address the underlying problem. While this did help in 

reducing the amount of deferred work, it was quickly consumed to solve immediate issues 

resulting from previously inadequate reserves. Hence, none of these funding additions resulted in 

fixing the Project, i.e. establishing an executable cost baseline with adequate reserves in each 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 24

year of Project implementation. Projects having the complexity of JWST require 25% reserves in 

each year of execution to solve the problems as they emerge in order to maintain schedule. 

NASA governance policy is not consistent with accountability for project execution. As written, 

the NASA policy directive, NPD 1000.01a, does not hold Center Directors accountable for 

execution of projects managed at their Centers. Center management provides institutional, 

technical, and other capabilities to support the project. NASA Headquarters has the program 

management authorities and accountability. Yet Centers have the full range of space flight 

project development capabilities needed for effective project implementation, which HQ does 

not. There is a need to make Center management, under the leadership of the Center Director, 

fully accountable for project implementation within agreed to cost, schedule, and performance 

guidelines and to document this intent in the policy directive. 

Lack of clear lines of authority and accountability has contributed to a lack of executive 

leadership in resolving the broken JWST life cycle cost baseline. The flawed budget should have 

been discovered as part of the Center’s execution responsibility, but the interpretation of the 

Agency governance policy on the Center role in this regard is ambiguous and not uniformly 

interpreted within the Agency. 

Ongoing, regular independent assessment and oversight processes at the Agency are missing. 

The Project is required to report its status on both monthly and quarterly cycles to successive 

levels of Center, Directorate, and Agency management. However, none of these receiving 

organizations has analysts charged with conducting an independent analysis of Project inputs. 

This results in a situation of “over reporting and under reviewing.” Instead, the Agency relies on 

a system of independent and outside review by consultants external to the Agency (such as the 

SRB) to advise senior management. Such mechanisms can be effective to support milestone 

decisions, but do not provide for the day-to-day oversight required to help keep large, complex 

projects from getting into trouble in the first place. A functional organization accountable for 

ongoing project assessment, budget execution performance, and defense of project budget 

requirements to Congress and the OMB no longer exists within NASA. It became clear during 

the Panel’s interview process that some individuals within the Agency believe that this function 

is provided by the SRB. Clearly this is an inadequate interpretation of what is needed for 

oversight and one that demonstrates the recognized lack of an in-house capability. 

Recommendations 

14. Revise the wording of the Agency’s Center responsibilities document, NPD 1000.01a, to 

correctly and unambiguously reflect clear lines of authority, accountability, and 

responsibility for program execution. 

15. Assign management and execution responsibility for the JWST Project to the GSFC 

Director, with accountability to the Science Mission Directorate Associate Administrator at 

HQ. 

16. Ensure that the Project Office, the Center, and the Agency are each held directly 

responsible for conducting in-depth analysis and projections of monthly JWST Project cost 

and schedule performance. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 25

6. Other Considerations 

In her letter to NASA, Senator Mikulski requested an analysis of the root causes of the escalating 

costs and schedule erosion. The senator also asked for a comprehensive review to assess how to 

complete development of JWST within budget and on schedule. The preceding sections of the 

report spoke to the four key areas noted in the letter, including root causes, and offered 

recommendations to address the root causes for JWST cost growth and schedule delay. This 

section completes the Panel’s response to the request for a comprehensive review by addressing 

other areas where improvement would enhance the probability of completing JWST within 

budget and on schedule. While these may not have contributed directly to the budget issues 

previously discussed, they represent opportunities for improvement that may help avoid future 

cost growth. 

6.1 Communications 

Findings 

 Communication problems have arisen between the GSFC JWST Project and both 

NASA HQ (SMD) and NGAS. 

 When the Project expenditure rate is over $1 million per day, delays in executive 

decisions can lead to cost impacts. 

 The JWST Project Manager reports to the vice president of Civil and Military 

Systems, four levels down from the chief executive officer (CEO) of Northrop 

Grumman. 

Assessment 

Communication issues are present between the JWST Project and SMD management. The lack 

of effective communication between the Project Manager and both SMD and the Astrophysics 

Division leadership was apparent during the Panel’s fact-finding interviews. There was a contrast 

between the view of the SMD and the Astrophysics Division—who claimed they had been 

responsive to Project needs and had given the Project all that was requested when requested—

while Project management asserted that they had never been funded adequately and had little or 

no reserves to deal with the inevitable issues that arise in a project like JWST. 

Issues exist in effective communication between NASA management and NGAS. The opinion 

that NGAS was largely to blame for the problems that the JWST Project has experienced 

appeared to be widespread throughout NASA. Yet in percentage terms, the overruns at GSFC on 

ISIM and the GSFC-managed instruments are comparable to those at NGAS. Furthermore, the 

importance of the threats list in the NGAS presentations at the NASA–NGAS monthly status 

reviews (MSRs) seems not to have been recognized by Project management. The message 

routinely communicated to HQ appeared to be that “the Project was in trouble and that NGAS is 

out of control.” However, NGAS financial performance to date is typical of NASA projects. 

Based on NASA–NGAS monthly status review data and the fact-finding interviews, this opinion 

was not substantiated. In fact, NGAS had received award fees from GSFC that reflected a 

qualitative overall evaluation of “Very Good.” This misunderstanding is an artifact of the poor 

communication within NASA and the Project team. 

In the 15 award fee periods since Program start, NGAS has received award fees from GSFC that 

reflected a qualitative overall evaluation of “Very Good” and a cost performance of “Good.” 

Since the Confirmation Review, the NGAS award fees for cost have been reduced to 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 26

“Poor/Satisfactory” to reflect NASA’s concern about NGAS cost performance. Since the cost 

portion of award fee is only 25% of overall award fee (12.5% of total fee), the recent low grades 

on cost have had limited impact. Part of the miscommunication between NASA and NGAS is 

likely due to the relatively low NGAS incentive for cost control and the relatively high value 

placed by NASA on controlling JWST costs and balancing the Agency budget. 

JWST Project reporting is at too low a level at the prime contractor. NASA is concerned about 

the performance of NGAS, which has experienced significant growth during the Project. There 

was no evidence that the JWST Project at NGAS received inappropriate attention from NGAS 

management, but in light of the importance of this project to NASA, the challenges that remain, 

and the NASA concern about NGAS, it would be prudent to have the Project report directly to 

the Space Systems Division at NGAS to assure top management focus on this important project. 

A commitment from the President of NGAS to actively participate in JWST internal reviews 

would also be appropriate. 

There seems to be good communication at the working level with continuous meetings and 

teleconferences. However, it was not apparent that high-level, regularly scheduled meetings of 

the type that gives JWST sufficient priority are occurring in the various organizations. These 

meetings are needed to anticipate and address problems before they become serious. Executive 

Project meetings—for example, wherein the NASA Project team would present status to senior 

executives of the major implementing organizations on cost and schedule, threats, liens, contract 

risk management, and personnel and priority issues—have proven to be an effective tool for 

keeping communications open and for removing roadblocks to effective implementation. Only 

top-level executives can establish priorities within organizations, but they must have knowledge 

of the issues. 

The Project does not maintain onsite residents at NGAS facilities and vice versa. A resident 

GSFC manager at NGAS could help to avoid surprises and would further the concept of a team 

effort. It is normal practice for the contracting agency to have resident managers at the plant site 

of the prime contractor. GSFC has done this on other projects. Given that the NGAS contract 

represents nearly half the JSWT budget, this is an important oversight. Not only would resident 

GSFC representatives help provide a path for improved communication, the involvement of 

GSFC personnel in NGAS activities would help to strengthen the partnership. 

Recommendations 

17. Improve communications between the JWST Project and both GSFC management and 

NASA HQ SMD. 

18. Assign at least one senior GSFC project person to be resident at NGAS throughout the 

Project. Consider having an NGAS manager resident at GSFC. 

19. Conduct monthly or bi-monthly JWST Executive Project meetings, attended by the NASA 

Associate Administrator and the President of NGAS. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 27

6.2 Potential Risk in Integration and Test Phase 

Finding 

 The Test Assessment Team (TAT) performed an independent review of the 

integration and test phase of JWST in August 2010. 

Assessment 

The integration and test (I&T) phase of a project is used to integrate and qualify the systems for 

flight. During I&T, many system components are tested in relevant environments to qualify the 

systems for flight. However, for a system of the size and complexity of JWST, the typical “Test 

as You Fly” (TAYF) approach can be only partially implemented based on the combination of 

physical size and thermal requirements. 

The TAT Report offered a focused, independent assessment of JWST I&T. The TAT identified 

several areas in the Project’s I&T that could be changed to mitigate risk and potentially increase 

the schedule margin to allow for an additional thermal vacuum cycle if needed. 

Recommendation 

20. Implement the TAT Report recommendations to substantially reduce the scheduled test 

time by running complementary testing off the critical path and by more effective 

sequencing of certain critical cryogenic and optical test segments. 

6.3 System Engineering 

Finding 

 The Project plans to transfer responsibility for system engineering from NGAS to 

GSFC for the remainder of the Project. 

Assessment 

A highly capable, experienced system engineering group is fundamental to project success. 

A decision on system engineering is a decision on accountability. In a project of this 

complexity and visibility, it is appropriate for the Government to be accountable. It is 

crucial, however, that the transfer of responsibility be executed properly. The transfer of 

system engineering ownership from NGAS to GSFC will require a modification to the 

contract and a change in the award–incentive fee structure. This should be given a high 

priority and negotiations completed expeditiously if the necessary conditions for this to be 

successful are met. A central requirement is that the system engineering team for a project 

of this cost and complexity be highly experienced and capable, include strong, experienced 

leadership, and include the active involvement of NGAS. This should not be viewed as a 

budget-reduction step, as it will likely be budget neutral or could even cost more. The 

quality of both technical and management system engineering personnel is crucial to the 

GSFC implementation of this decision. It might be useful to convene an implementation 

review by the GSFC Director, consistent with governance changes, to assure all essential 

elements of success are in place, including the following areas: overall implementation 

approach, verification and validation approach, experience and talent of the system 

engineering staff, decision-making process and dispute resolution, and clear lines of 

authority and accountability. 

Recommendation 

21. Establish a plan that provides the required level of experience and that involves the 

appropriate NGAS personnel before changing the system engineering accountability. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 28

6.4 Project Scientist and Science Team 

Finding 

 JWST has a Project Scientist and science team on staff to assist in the decisionmaking process regarding science activities and requirements. 

Assessment 

The science team plays an important role in NASA science projects. Experience with large 

science projects has shown that science teams such as the JWST Project science team play a 

unique role in the project. The science team is in a good position to provide inputs to difficult 

trades involving Observatory performance, but its role should be broader than that. As 

representatives of the ultimate customer of the Observatory, the Project science team can utilize 

its awareness of the technical, cost, and schedule issues to 

 Assist in interfaces with the Science Mission Directorate and the operations center 

(STScI); 

 Utilize its understanding of the science performance and the technical challenges to 

help identify potential problems and then recommend remedial actions; and 

 Provide an independent voice that identifies potential problems that could impact the 

completion and effective implementation of the Project. 

Typically, the Project Scientist and many key members of the science team are intimately 

involved in helping to solve key technical issues. Because of their unique roles, they are often in 

the best position to provide inputs to difficult trades involving observatory scientific 

performance. 

The science team on JWST, however, seems not to have played a significant role in these 

matters. In the numerous presentations and discussions across all elements of the JWST Project, 

the science team was not identified as either a contributor to or initiator of any recommendations. 

This apparent lack of input suggests that the Project science team has adopted a “hands-off” 

approach that is unfortunate in a project of this magnitude and importance. 

Recommendation 

22. Strengthen the role and the independent voice of the science team in the Project. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 29

7. Afterword 

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) is one of the most complex spacecraft ever developed 

by NASA. The JWST Project has made excellent progress in developing the difficult 

technologies required for its successful operation, and no technical constraints to successful 

completion have been identified. JWST is more complex, and significantly more capable, than 

the Hubble Space Telescope that it will follow in the NASA suite of Great Observatories. While 

Hubble operates in low Earth orbit only 560 km from Earth, and uses a single 2.4-meter diameter 

primary mirror, JWST will operate at 1.5 million km from Earth with a telescope designed to 

function at temperatures colder than liquid nitrogen, using an 18-segment primary mirror that is 

6.5 meters in diameter. 

NASA’s Great Observatories—Hubble, Chandra, and Spitzer—have demonstrated the 

technological prowess of NASA and its industrial partners over the last two decades. Each of 

these projects was at the cutting edge of technology and faced substantial challenges, but 

nevertheless achieved striking levels of success. Each mission team overcame numerous 

problems and each Observatory provided major scientific discoveries that attracted national and 

international attention. Hubble became a household name as a result of its scientific discoveries 

and its stunning images of the beauty and complexity of the Universe. The Great Observatories 

demonstrated to the world that the United States had the technological base and management 

expertise to execute such major projects and implement uniquely powerful space observatories. 

Even now, no other nation can execute missions of such complexity. 

JWST continues this tradition of high-risk, high-return ventures that address some of the greatest 

scientific questions of the time. It is astonishing to realize that JWST will have the ability to look 

back 13.5 billion years through 98% of all time to when the Universe was young and see the first 

galaxies as they form. The abilities of JWST far exceed those of Hubble and it is highly likely to 

go beyond Hubble’s now legendary accomplishment of generating more discoveries than any 

other science mission. 

This report raises significant concerns about the way in which the JWST Project has been 

planned and managed and how its budgets were established. The ICRP did not find that the funds 

used by JWST over the last 7–8 years were wasted. On the contrary, a substantial amount of 

cutting-edge hardware has been delivered and is now being tested as part of the first steps toward 

the overall integration and test of the Observatory. The JWST Project does face serious 

difficulties, however, largely stemming from the lack of a well-defined plan for completion and 

because a series of decisions have led to substantial underfunding. The Project must find the path 

to a successful launch with a realistic budget and executable schedule. 

JWST will play a key role in understanding how and when the first galaxies were born, 

characterizing the planets that are now being discovered around nearby stars, in providing further 

insights into the nature of the dark energy and dark matter, and into how stars and planetary 

systems are born. There is no easy path to understanding such complex scientific questions. To 

do these things at the level needed to advance scientific understanding requires a complex 

telescope with truly unique capabilities. JWST is that telescope. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 30

Appendix A: Minimum Cost-to-Launch 

The minimum cost-to-launch JWST will be achieved by launching at the earliest possible date, 

consistent with safely completing the work needed to assure a successful mission. This is 

consistent with the experience of those within NASA and contractors who have been involved 

with large space flight projects. 

The current Phases A–E LCC established at the MCDR in April 2010 is $5.1 billion, the cost 

through launch plus commissioning, followed by five years of operations, assuming launch in 

June 2014. Recent progress shows that this is now not practical. With the work remaining, JWST 

likely cannot be launched earlier than September 2015 and will require a total LCC in excess of 

$6 billion. To put this in context, Hubble cost-to-launch was $4.7 billion, in FY 2010 dollars, and 

the cost through SM-1 in 1993 when Hubble’s mirror problem was fixed was $5.8 billion. 

Approaches 

Several approaches were used to arrive at the yearly funding profile with reserves that would 

support the 2015 launch date. While the estimates provide insight into addressing the minimum 

cost of launching JWST, there is significant uncertainty as to the actual cost. The major 

components were as follows: 

 First, the ICRP asked the GSFC Director to assemble a team and provide the Panel with 

a best estimate drawing on the full resources and experience of the Center. The team, 

which included the JWST Project, including the prime contractor, provided the estimate 

referenced below as the “Center Estimate.” 

 Second, the ICRP evaluated the Project Budget developed for the JWST MCDR in 

March 2010. The Panel used their experience to modify the MCDR baseline to adjust 

for deferred work, to include threats and liens, and to distribute reserve percentage by 

element, according the Panel’s judgment of the risk by element. This estimate is 

referenced below as the “Adjusted Estimate.” 

 Third, the ICRP used a historical growth analysis based on a set of 20 SMD missions. 

This is discussed below under “Historical Cost Growth.” 

 Fourth, a complexity analysis by Aerospace indicated that the cost of JWST was “infamily” with missions of similar complexity; this was also used as a cross-check on the 

results. This is discussed below under “Complexity Index.” 

The threats included in the first two estimates include the known and anticipated threats, which 

can be considered tactical in nature. In a sense, the resulting estimate-to-complete can be viewed 

as a nominal minimum estimate. However, as with any project, there are the potential strategic 

risks that represent significant albeit less likely threats to the launch date. The impacts of these 

items are discussed below under “Strategic Threat Assessment.” 

None of these approaches constitutes a full bottoms-up cost estimate or a full ICE, which should 

be done as part of building a credible new baseline for JWST. 

An additional factor that framed the development of a minimum cost-to-launch assessment was 

the date for implementing this profile. The 2011 fiscal year began on October 1, 2010. To be 

more consistent with the time scales for possible Agency and congressional action, the Panel’s 

analysis was based upon implementing the recommended budget changes on January 1, 2011. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 31

Center Estimate 

The Center estimate is based on the estimate done by the JWST Project, with NGAS input and 

evaluation by the GSFC management team. This reflects the first of the “minimum cost-tolaunch” estimates. The resulting likely launch date is September 2015. Current liens are 

included, as are high-probability threats from NGAS and 25% reserves in each year. The total 

cost-to-launch including commissioning would now be $5.4 billion, an increase of $0.9 billion 

over the current Project plan cost-to-complete. The cost for the five years of operations would 

remain unchanged from prior budget submissions; the LCC would now be $6.0 billion, including 

$0.03 billion for JSC chamber modifications, which are on a separate line in the NASA budget. 

The adopted schedule (LRD of September 2015) includes some consideration of the savings 

envisaged by the TAT Report and also reflects a conservative approach to providing schedule 

contingency in the Program. The schedule contingency is particularly important since the 

spacecraft CDR has not yet been held, some key I&T activities for NIRCam and ISIM remain, 

and a full assessment of the I&T program at JSC also needs to be completed. This schedule 

contingency is also included in the cost estimate. 

The cost-to-launch and associated LRD provide an informed baseline estimate that provides one 

answer to the Panel’s charge. This Project estimate does not represent a full bottoms-up estimate, 

however, so there is significant uncertainty associated with final number in the Center Estimate 

(Table A.1). Nonetheless, this new LRD and LCC are substantially more feasible than the most 

recent baseline plan available at the time of the Panel investigation, the MCDR baseline. 

 LRD FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16 FY11–16, 

$B 

LCC 

$B 

Center 

Estimate 

9/15 633 586 455 293 262 1412 2.42 6.0 

Adjusted 

Estimate 

9/15 774 564 357 357 319 1272 2.52 6.2 

ICRP 

Assessment 

9/15 710 640 530 450 420 1802 2.92 6.5 

FY 2011 

President’s 

Request1

6/141

 445 379 335 259 521 — 1.51 5.1 

Table A.1 Minimum cost-to-launch estimates and the FY 2011 President’s Budget Request. 

Notes 

 Yearly cost is shown in $M with contingency for LRD September 2015, including 

commissioning. 

 Through FY 2010, JWST has spent $3.0 billion. 

 LCC includes Phase E (science operations) of $0.59B, which starts at launch + six 

months (at completion of commissioning); does not include JSC chamber modifications 

of $26.5 million in FY 2011 as this is carried in a different account line in the NASA 

budget. 

 1 Not a credible LRD (June 2014 cannot be met with this budget). FY 2015 includes 

only commissioning costs. 

 2 Cost including six-month commissioning period. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 32

Adjusted Estimate 

The ICRP generated an adjusted minimum cost-to-launch estimate; this estimate was again based 

on the MCDR baseline, but updated to include adequate reserves based on the Panel’s 

experiences. The MCDR baseline exhibited insufficient reserves and did not fully account for the 

likely conversion of many existing threats into liens. The Panel adjusted the MCDR Project 

estimate as follows: 

 Added an appropriate level of reserves throughout the remaining years to launch 

(allocated to the JWST Project and NGAS). 

 Changed LRD to September 2015. 

 Included the threats and liens on the Project Threat List, i.e., current as of the MCDR. 

 Added in the Panel’s estimate of current deferred work into FY 2011. 

This process led to a minimum total cost-to-launch of $5.6 billion and a LCC of $6.2 billion 

(where the current Phase E mission operations estimate of $0.59 billion is retained, as adopted at 

the MCDR; see the Adjusted Estimate in Table A.1). Since the point of departure for this 

estimate is the MCDR baseline, this is not considered an independent cost estimate—although it 

does provide a sanity check on the Center estimate for minimum cost-to-launch. Again, to put 

this in context, HST, which was a much less complex mission, had a total cost-to-launch of 

approximately $5 billion in current dollars. Hubble’s LCC was approximately double this 

because of servicing costs over 20 years. 

Historical Growth Analysis 

One cross-check was to use historical cost growth data from twenty past SMD missions to assess 

the potential cost of JWST. The results of the analysis, using historical cost growth data from 

CDR to launch, are shown in Figure A.1. The mission CDR for JWST was held in spring 2010, 

but several elements were at different levels of maturity at that time. A key caveat is that the 

historical data are for smaller, lower-cost missions than JWST, with shorter schedules, although 

there are indications that the cost growth is somewhat independent of project size. Cognizant of 

these concerns, the data suggest a cost around $6.5 billion–6.8 billion LCC, with a large 

uncertainty, for an optimal budget profile. As discussed previously, constraining the Project 

funding to a specific level below that needed in any year would drive the LCC higher and lead to 

launch delays. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 33

Figure A.1 Estimated total mission cost (RY$B) based on historical cost growth data; not an ICE. 

Complexity Index 

Aerospace maintains a Complexity Based Risk Assessment (CoBRA) model that can be used to 

assess the reasonableness of cost and schedule of a mission based on its “complexity index,” 

which is essentially a representation of the technical and programmatic characteristics of a 

mission. JWST is considered to be one of the most complex science missions carried out to date 

and therefore falls at the high end of the range, greater than 90%, on the complexity index. JWST 

is consistent with being “in family” for an LCC around $6 billion–$7 billion (see Figure A.2). 

Like the historical growth analysis above, this should be considered a cross-check on the 

potential mission cost rather than an independent cost estimate. 

Figure A.2 Cost vs. complexity index for various missions. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 34

ICRP Assessment 

The ICRP Assessment is that the total LCC is likely to be in the range of $6.2 billion to $6.8 

billion, i.e., about $6.5 billion. This assessment is a considered judgment number, accounting for 

a number of subjective factors, e.g., 

 The Center Estimate and the Adjusted Estimate result in an LCC around $6 billion–$6.2 

billion. 

 A CPI adjustment to the above range of $6.5 billion–$7.3 billion: NGAS has 

consistently performed at a CPI of about 0.8, and although NASA does not require 

Centers to use EVM on internally managed project work, the cost growth for the JWST 

internally managed work (~55%) was similar to the NGAS growth (~45%) 

 S-curve resulting from historical cost growth data in the 70%–80 % range. 

 An allowance for some of the strategic threats discussed earlier. 

 Past experience that the Project, absent a full bottoms-up estimate, has tended to 

underestimate costs. 

Given these factors, the ICRP adopted a profile with less funding in FY 2011 to match the 

January 1, 2011, date, relative to the Panel’s Adjusted Estimate that used full-year funding in FY 

2011 and more in FY 2012 and the out years. See Figure A.3. 

To get the JWST Project “back on track” in an efficient and cost-effective way toward realizing a 

minimum cost-to-launch budget requires significant additional funding in FY 2011 and FY 2012 

(approximately $250M in each year). This would enable the Project to recover from inadequate 

reserves and past management and oversight decisions that have resulted in deferral of key work. 

These estimates lead to a cost-to-launch (FY 2011 through launch plus commissioning) of 

approximately $2.9 billion. Note that if no additional funds can be found in FY 2011, further 

delays in the launch date and significantly increased costs will occur. The most efficient 

approach is to increase the Project’s FY 2011 funding. 

Figure A.3 ICRP assessment for minimum cost-to-launch. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 35

Additional Considerations 

Strategic Threat Assessment 

A further check on risks to the schedule was carried out by Aerospace to consider threats to the 

schedule that arise from low-likelihood, high-consequence problems (e.g., a structural failure in 

testing, having to break vacuum at JSC more than planned, or a damaged sunshield). While these 

events may be unlikely (i.e., the probability of occurrence is typically far lower than 50%), the 

impact on the schedule could be on the order of months, not weeks, and therefore lead to 

significant cost impacts if they fall on the critical path. These major risks were called “strategic 

threats” to differentiate them from the more tactical and smaller items typically carried in the 

Project threat lists. 

Aerospace evaluated the information available from the JWST Project and NGAS to derive an 

initial list of potential strategic threats, including the likelihood and consequence of these risks if 

realized. Aerospace also had several meetings with the NGAS Integrated Product Team (IPT) 

leads to further refine this list. Of the potential strategic threats evaluated by Aerospace, those 

that were likely to result in Project schedule slips (i.e., they were likely to fall on the critical 

path) were evaluated statistically to assess the potential schedule impact. This process also 

incorporated some “opportunities,” as per the TAT Report, for example, but those were in the 

minority. 

The initial Aerospace analysis indicated a potential schedule slip that could exceed a year. The 

possibility of a year slip is not clear given the limited time for analysis, but for each year slip, the 

associated cost is likely to be around $300 million—based on the burn rate of the JWST Project 

in 2014–2015 and beyond. This cost and schedule risk will apply to any of the cost estimates 

under discussion. The likelihood of some of these strategic threats occurring is significant, so 

while the September 2015 LRD is a good working baseline for the minimum cost-to-launch 

budget, the potential for a slip of a year or more should be recognized and further assessed. 

Improved Cost Estimates 

The minimum cost-to-launch estimates discussed above should be considered a lower bound 

starting point in part because of the lack of a credible cost baseline in the JWST Project. As 

noted elsewhere in this report, the JWST Project has not performed a full bottoms-up cost 

estimate with their prime contractor since 2002 when the initial contract was negotiated. In 

addition, the ICEs done in 2008 for the Confirmation Review have not been updated. This was 

surprising, especially given the budget issues that have arisen over the last two years. 

The Agency and Project seem to be “flying blind” without a full bottoms-up cost assessment, 

validated by an independent analysis, and an up-to-date ICE. In fact, it might be valuable to 

conduct two ICEs in parallel, as was done prior to the Confirmation Review in 2008, one within 

NASA similar to the 2008 IPAO estimate, and one external to NASA (leveraging previous 

analyses to provide continuity with the 2008 work). The reconciliation of the bottoms-up Project 

estimate with the ICEs will again provide valuable insights. 

Doing a bottoms-up cost estimate and new ICEs will take time, but this should be done in 

parallel with the transition of the JWST Project to a funding profile consistent with the 80% 

confidence level and an LRD in September 2015. Any additional funds applied in FY 2011 will 

help get the JWST Project off the cycle of crisis management, help mitigate the inevitable costly 

deferrals associated with decisions made in that mode, and move the Project onto a path that has 

a credible and achievable launch date. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 36

Minimum Cost-to-Launch vs. Capped Yearly Funding 

Adopting a minimum cost-to-launch budget is desirable, although it has one quite challenging 

aspect: the high level of funding required in FY 2011. However, the Astrophysics Division 

alternative of capping the funding in each year will lead to a significantly higher total cost and a 

substantial launch delay. During the fact-finding investigation period, the JWST Project told the 

Panel that a yearly cost-capped budget profile would delay the LRD to the 2017–2018 timeframe 

or later. Furthermore, the cost-capped approach is not an efficient use of resources and is not 

ideal if there is no clearly defined LRD. While the near-term budget increments needed for the 

minimum cost-to-launch are challenging for those dealing with funding in the Executive Branch 

and within Congress, the minimum cost approach discussed here has significant merit in addition 

to cost savings: it commits the Project to a defined schedule that allows forward planning for 

future science missions, allows ramp-up on JWST on a timescale during which Hubble will most 

likely lose capability, and provides a stable baseline for Project management to efficiently 

execute to cost and schedule. 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 37

Appendix B: Biographies 

Members 

John Casani (Panel Chair) 

John Casani is currently Special Assistant to the Director at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory. The 

majority of his career has been in systems engineering and project management. He has been a 

leader in the development and management of spacecraft systems. Casani was Project Manager 

for three major space missions at JPL: Voyager, Galileo, and Cassini. He held senior project 

positions in many of the early space programs, including Explorer, Pioneer, Ranger, and 

Mariner. He is the recipient of the National Academy of Engineering Founders Award and the 

National Aerospace Museum Lifetime Achievement Award. He is an Honorary Fellow of the 

AIAA and a member of the International Astronautics Academy. He has received several NASA 

awards, including the Distinguished Service Medal, the Exceptional Achievement Medal, and the 

Medal for Outstanding Leadership. He received the AIAA Space System Award and the von 

Karman Lectureship, the National Space Club Astronauts Engineer Award, and the AAS Space 

Flight Award. Casani has a BSEE and an Honorary Doctor of Science degree from the 

University of Pennsylvania and an honorary degree in Aerospace Engineering from the 

University of Rome. 

William F. Ballhaus, Jr. 

William F. Ballhaus, Jr., is the retired president and chief executive officer of The Aerospace 

Corporation, an independent, nonprofit organization dedicated to the objective application of 

science and technology toward the solution of critical issues in the nation’s space program. 

Ballhaus joined Aerospace as president in 2000 after an 11-year career with Lockheed Martin 

Corporation. At Lockheed Martin, Ballhaus served as corporate officer and vice president, 

engineering and technology, where he was responsible for advancing the company’s scientific 

and engineering capabilities and for overseeing research and engineering functions. Prior to his 

tenure with Lockheed Martin, Ballhaus served as president of two Martin Marietta businesses, 

Aero and Naval Systems (1993–1994) and Civil Space and Communications (1990–1993). 

Before joining Martin Marietta, Ballhaus served as the director of the NASA Ames Research 

Center (1984–1989). He also served as the acting associate administrator for aeronautics and 

space technology at NASA Headquarters (1988–1989). 

Ballhaus serves on the boards of directors of Draper Laboratory and of OSI Systems. He is also a 

member of the National Academy of Engineering and completed two three-year terms as a 

member of the NAE Council in 2007. Currently, Ballhaus serves as chair of the Space 

Foundation. He is an honorary fellow of the AIAA and served as its president in 1988–1989. He 

is a fellow of the Royal Aeronautical Society and the American Astronautical Society and is a 

member of the International Academy of Astronautics. He serves on the Jet Propulsion 

Laboratory Advisory Council and served on the Defense Science Board (2001–2009) and the Air 

Force Scientific Advisory Board (1994–2001; co-chair, 1996–1999). He also served as a member 

of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Science Advisory Board. Ballhaus is a 

graduate of the University of California, Berkeley, where he earned a PhD in engineering and BS 

and MS degrees in mechanical engineering. 

Ballhaus has received a number of awards, including Presidential Ranks of Distinguished 

Executive and Meritorious Executive, both conferred by President Ronald Reagan; the NASA 

Distinguished Service Medal; National Intelligence Medallion from the Director of National 

Intelligence; the National Reconnaissance Office Gold Medal; Air Force Exceptional Civilian 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 38

Service Medal; Air Force Association’s Gen. Bernard A. Schriever Award for Space Leadership; 

National Defense Industrial Association’s (NDIA) Peter B. Teets Award for championing the 

advancement of national-security space; NDIA Bob Hope Distinguished Citizen Award; 

Distinguished Engineering Alumnus Award from UC Berkeley; AIAA’s Lawrence Sperry 

Award; AIAA Von Karman Lectureship; Arthur S. Flemming Award from the Washington, 

D.C., Junior Chamber of Commerce; Distinguished Executive Service Award from the Senior 

Executives Association; and Election to the NASA–Ames Hall of Fame. 

Steven Dorfman 

Steven Dorfman is the retired Vice Chairman of Hughes Electronics. During his time at Hughes 

he served as chief executive officer of Hughes Space and Communications Company, the 

world’s leading builder of communication satellites and a provider of Space Systems for the 

NASA, NRO, Navy and Air Force; Hughes Communications, a leading owner and operator of 

communication satellites; and Hughes Telecommunications and Space, a unit responsible for the 

above businesses plus the international development of DirecTV. While CEO of Hughes 

Communications, Dorfman was responsible for the development of the Galaxy System, the 

leading North American satellite service provider, subsequently merged with Intelsat; the JCSAT 

system for Japan, in partnership with Mitsui and Itochu; the initiation of the direct to home 

business at Hughes which ultimately became DirecTV; and several other satellite businesses. 

After retiring from Hughes, Dorfman was the Hunsaker Visiting Professor at MIT, the Chairman 

of ProtoStar, Ltd. and a member of the President’s Information Technology Advisory 

Committee. Dorfman has served on the Boards of Hughes, Raytheon, PanAmSat, American 

Mobile Satellite, Galaxy Latin America, JCSAT, DirecTV, Galaxy Institute, ProtoStar and HRL 

Laboratories. He has been a Trustee of the Boys and Girls Club and the Devereux Foundation. 

He is currently a member of the National Academy of Engineering (NAE), the Tennenbaum 

Capital Advisory Board, the Thoroughbred Owners of California, and is a Senior Fellow of the 

California Council for Science and Technology. He has served on advisory committees for 

NASA, FCC, USIA, Department of Transportation, Air Force, USC School of Engineering, 

Hughes Network Systems, Boeing Satellite Systems, JPL, Ames Research Center and the 

National Research Council. Among Dorfman’s awards are the Distinguished Public Service 

Award, NASA’s highest award, for his work on Pioneer Venus; the Society of Satellite 

Professionals Hall of Fame; and Via Satellite’s Satellite Executive of the Year for 1995. 

David Gallagher 

David Gallagher is currently Deputy Director for Astronomy and Physics at the Jet Propulsion 

Laboratory (JPL). In his most recent assignment, Gallagher was manager of the Advanced 

Optical Systems Program Office at JPL. Prior to this assignment, he was the Project Manager for 

the Space Interferometry Mission. He also managed the Spitzer Space Telescope Project, the 

Starlight Project, PMIRR Instrument, and Drop Physics Module re-flight. He also served as the 

Integration and Test Manager for the WF/PC-2 Instrument, which corrected the spherical 

aberration for the Hubble Space Telescope. Gallagher received a BS in Electrical Engineering 

from Purdue University in 1982. After working for IBM for several years, he started and ran a 

software consulting firm until he joined JPL in 1989. 

Garth Illingworth 

Garth Illingworth is an Astronomer/Professor at the University of California Observatories 

(UCO)/Lick Observatory and the University of California, Santa Cruz. His research focus is on 

the formation of the first galaxies and their evolution in the first 1–2 billion years (see 

“firstgalaxies.org”). He is principal investigator of a major Hubble Space Telescope (HST) 

imaging Program using the new WFC3/IR camera that is a precursor to the surveys to be done 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 39

with JWST for galaxies in the first 500 million years. Illingworth has been involved with major 

space and ground projects starting with HST (as Deputy Director at STScI in the 1980s), the 

initial conceptual development of NGST (JWST) in the late 1980s and early 1990s, construction 

of the ground-based Keck telescopes in the 1990s as chair of the Keck SSC which had oversight 

of instrument development for Keck, Deputy PI on the HST Advanced Camera, and also as 

current chair of the 30-meter TMT Project SAC. Illingworth was the Chair of the scientific 

organizing committee for the first NGST science meeting “The Next Generation Space 

Telescope” held in 1989 at STScI, and one of three developers at STScI in the late 1980s of the 

initial passively-cooled large (8-16 m) UV-Optical-IR telescope concept for NGST. He has also 

been widely involved in science policy issues and chaired the “O/IR in Space” panel of the 1990 

Decadal Survey, and, for five years until mid 2008, the Congressionally mandated FACA 

committee that advised NSF, NASA, DOE, and Congress (the Astronomy and Astrophysics 

Advisory Committee). Illingworth chaired the European Southern Observatory Visiting 

Committee in 2010, and is currently chairing the JSTAC, the James Webb Space Telescope 

Advisory Council, that advises STScI on future JWST science operations. 

John Klineberg 

John Klineberg was CEO of Swales Aerospace, a space systems and engineering services 

company in Beltsville, MD, from December 2005 until May 2006. Before he retired at the end of 

2003, he was president of Space Systems/Loral, a major provider of commercial communications 

satellite systems and services, and vice president of Loral Space & Communications, of which 

SS/L is a wholly owned subsidiary. Before becoming president in 1999, Klineberg was SS/L’s 

executive vice president for Globalstar programs, where he led the successful development, 

production and deployment in orbit of the Globalstar satellite constellation for providing a new 

generation of cellular telephone services. Before joining Loral in 1995, Klineberg spent 25 years 

with the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in a variety of management 

and technical positions. He was the director of the Goddard Space Flight Center; director of the 

Lewis (now Glenn) Research Center; deputy director of the Lewis Research Center; deputy 

associate administrator for Aeronautics and Space Technology at NASA Headquarters, and a 

research scientist at the Ames Research Center. Before beginning his career at NASA, he 

conducted fundamental studies in fluid dynamics at the California Institute of Technology and 

was an engineer at the Douglas Aircraft Company in California and at the Grumman Aircraft 

Company in New York. 

Klineberg has received many awards for his outstanding service to NASA and his significant 

contributions to the fields of aeronautics and space systems, including the NASA Distinguished 

Service Medal; the NASA Outstanding Leadership Medal; the NASA Goddard Award of Merit; 

the U.S. Government rank of Distinguished Executive; the U.S. Government rank of Meritorious 

Executive; the AIAA Barry M. Goldwater Education Award; and the Engineer of the Year 

Award from the University of Maryland. Among his other activities, he is a member of the U.S. 

Air Force Scientific Advisory Board; an advisor to NASA; a frequent member of National 

Research Council review committees; a member of the International Astronautical Federation; a 

fellow of the American Astronautical Society; and a fellow of the American Institute of 

Aeronautics and Astronautics. He earned his BS degree in engineering from Princeton 

University, his MS degree in aeronautics from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), 

and his PhD in aeronautics and political science from Caltech. 

David Schurr 

David Schurr is currently the Deputy Director of the Joint Agency Satellite Division, a new 

Division in NASA’s Science Mission Directorate established to manage all reimbursable 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 40

operational satellite and instrument development for NOAA and the USGS. Prior to this 

assignment, Schurr was the NASA Comptroller, responsible for development and execution of 

the Agency budget and advocacy for NASA programs with Congress and the Office of the 

President. He started his career at Johnson Space Center, working as a Payload Officer in the 

Space Shuttle Mission Control, responsible for Department of Defense and interplanetary 

satellite missions. Prior to moving to NASA Headquarters, he was a Program manager within the 

International Space Station Program Office, managing development of Japanese and Italian 

modules, and the deputy business manager for the International Space Station. Schurr holds a BS 

degree in aerospace engineering from the University of Notre Dame and Master’s degrees in 

process control and business administration from the University of Houston. 

Support Staff 

Rosalind Lewis (Analytical Support Lead) 

Rosalind (Roz) Lewis is the Principal Director of the Acquisition Analysis and Planning 

Subdivision at The Aerospace Corporation. In this position, Lewis manages four departments 

that support a variety of Program offices, corporate initiatives, and external civil and commercial 

customers in the areas of cross Program studies and anomaly data collection; programmatic 

analysis and modeling to include cost, schedule and risk analysis; and system engineering, 

acquisition strategy and Program execution support. Lewis joined The Aerospace Corporation in 

1987 as a Member of the Technical Staff in the Computer Science Laboratory, where she 

developed software tools for experiment mission planning, upgraded a network resource 

scheduling system, and studied fault tolerant computing methodologies. As a Senior Project 

Engineer in a Program office, she led a multidisciplinary effort to develop and deploy a digital 

imagery dissemination system. She was promoted to Senior Project Leader in the Air Force 

Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) where she studied the impact of GPS-aided satellite 

navigation on the AFSCN and supported systems engineering and integration activities for cross 

segment initiatives. In 1999, she joined the RAND Corporation as a Senior Engineer, where she 

conducted and participated in studies regarding the acquisition, development and use of space 

systems, including GPS and Galileo. Other studies and analysis concerned the development and 

applications of information and communication technologies in government and consumer 

environments. Lewis holds a BS degree from USC in Computer Science, a MS degree from 

Polytechnic University in Computer Science, and a MS degree from USC in Systems 

Architecture and Engineering. 

Marcus Lobbia (Executive Secretary) 

Marcus Lobbia is a Manager–Engineering in the Space Architecture Department, Systems 

Engineering Division of The Aerospace Corporation (Aerospace), where he has been active in 

the development and application of various analysis models and tools for both NASA and the Air 

Force. He has experience in a variety of disciplines, including conceptual design, trajectory 

modeling, aerodynamics, cost analysis, and system architecture development. He recently spent 

over two years on site at NASA Headquarters, where he served as the Aerospace interface for the 

Office of Program Analysis and Evaluation (since renamed the Office of Independent Program 

and Cost Evaluation). Among recent activities, he has led the Aerospace team developing the 

Sand Chart Tool affordability assessment capability for the last several years, was one of the 

primary analysts supporting the 2009 Review of U.S. Human Space Flight Plans Committee, and 

assisted NASA in assessing workforce impacts related to the Fiscal Year 2011 President’s 

budget Request. Lobbia holds a BS degree in Aerospace Engineering from the University of 

California, San Diego, and MS and PhD degrees in Aeronautics and Astronautics Engineering 

from the University of Tokyo, Japan.
JWST-ICRP Final Report 41

Appendix C: ICRP Schedule 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 42

Appendix D: ICRP Interviews 

Name Affiliation 

August 30–31 (held at The Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, CA) 

Phil Sabelhaus NASA 

Rick King NASA 

Robyn O'Mara NASA 

Charlie Calhoon SGT, Inc. 

Jean Olivier* retired (NASA) 

Steve Scott NASA 

Hamilton Fernandez NASA 

Bill Taylor retired (NASA) 

Ken Sizemore retired (NASA) 

Jon Morse* NASA 

Geoff Yoder* NASA 

Matt Mountain* Space Telescope Science Institute 

Kathy Flanagan* Space Telescope Science Institute 

Alan Dressler Observatories of the Carnegie Institution 

Georg Siebes Jet Propulsion Laboratory 

Jerry Nelson University of California, Santa Cruz 

September 8 (teleconference) 

Eric H. Smith* Lockheed Martin Corporation 

Marcia Rieke* The University of Arizona 

September 13 (held at Northrop Grumman in Redondo Beach, CA) 

Scott Willoughby Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Robert Burke Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Dave DiCarlo Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Mike Herriage Northrop Grumman Corporation 

James Wehner Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Jon Arenberg Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Mike Hirsch Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Stacy Sooks Northrop Grumman Corporation 

Tom Reoch Northrop Grumman Corporation 

September 14 (held at The Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, CA)

Mark Bergeland Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp 

Paul Lightsey Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp 

Brad Shogrin Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp 

Alison Barto Ball Aerospace & Technologies Corp 

 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 43

Name Affiliation 

September 15-16 (held at Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, MD)

Rob Strain NASA 

Rick Obenschain NASA 

Orlando Figueroa NASA 

George Morrow NASA 

Mike Hawes NASA 

Trish Pengra NASA 

James Ortiz* NASA 

Ed Weiler NASA 

Eric P. Smith NASA 

Anne Kinney NASA 

Ken Ledbetter NASA 

Rick Howard NASA 

John Mather NASA 

John Decker NASA 

John Durning NASA 

Matt Mountain Space Telescope Science Institute 

Kathy Flanagan Space Telescope Science Institute 

Phil Sabelhaus NASA 

Paul Geithner NASA 

Dan Blackwood NASA 

Mike Menzel NASA 

Lee Feinberg NASA 

Julie Baker NASA 

Christine Steeley NASA 

Robyn O'Mara NASA 

Chris Scolese NASA 

September 16 (held at JPL Office in Washington, DC) 

Jean Toal Eisen Senate Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and 

Related Agencies Appropriations 

September 22 (teleconference) 

Amy Kaminski* NASA (on detail from Office of Management and Budget) 

Rob Strain* NASA 

September 28 (held at NASA Headquarters in Washington, DC) 

Chris Scolese NASA 

Mary D. Kerwin NASA 

September 28 (held at the New Executive Office Building in Washington, DC)

Brian Dewhurst Office of Management and Budget (on detail from NASA) 

Celinda Marsh Office of Management and Budget 

Paul Shawcross Office of Management and Budget 

Kimberly Briggman Office of Science and Technology Policy 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 44

Appendix E: Sen. Mikulski Letter to NASA 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 45
JWST-ICRP Final Report 46

Appendix F: Acronyms 

APA Allowance for Program Adjustment 

APMC Agency Program Management Control 

ATP Authority to Proceed 

 

CDR Critical Design Review 

CE Cost Estimate 

CFO Chief Financial Officer 

CPI (Project) Cost Performance Index 

 

DoD Department of Defense 

 

EAC Estimated Cost at Complete 

EV Expected Value 

 

FACA Federal Advisory Committee Act 

 

GSFC Goddard Space Flight Center 

 

HST Hubble Space Telescope 

 

I&T Integration and Test 

ICE Independent Cost Estimate 

ICAN Independent Cost Assessment Node 

ICRP Independent Comprehensive Review Panel 

IPAO Independent Program Assessment Office 

IPCE Office of Independent Program and Cost Evaluation 

ISIM Integrated Science Instrument Module 

 

JPL Jet Propulsion Laboratory (Pasadena, California) 

JWST James Webb Space Telescope 

 

LCC Life Cycle Cost 

LRD Launch Readiness Date 

 

MCDR Mission Critical Design Review 

 

NAR Non-Advocate Review 

NASA National Aeronautics and Space Administration 

NGAS Northrop Grumman Aerospace Systems 

NIR Near-Infrared 

NIRCam Near-Infrared Camera 

NPD NASA Policy Directive 

 

OMB Office of Management and Budget 

OTE Optical Telescope Element 
JWST-ICRP Final Report 47

 

PA&E Program Assessment and Evaluation 

PDR Preliminary Design Review 

PMC Program Management Council 

POP Project Operations Plan 

PPBE Preliminary Project Budget Estimate 

 

SMD Science Missions Directorate 

SRB Standing Review Board 

 

TAT Test Assessment Team 

TAYF Test as you Fly 

TFI Tunable Filter Imager