Economic Growth and National 

Competitiveness Impacts of 

the Artemis Program

Office of Technology, Policy & Strategy (OTPS) 

May 2022 

Prepared by Patrick Besha 
Office of Technology, Policy & Strategy

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Acknowledgements

Wish to thank Alex Macdonald and Phil McAlister for their insightful reviews of this report, and Elaine 

Gresham for copyediting and graphics support. 
Office of Technology, Policy & Strategy

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Economic Growth and National Competitiveness 

Impacts of Artemis

NASA’s Artemis Program will return humans to the lunar surface in the 2020s, create a sustainable 

American presence for years to come, and provide the experience and technology to conduct the first 

human missions to Mars. While providing scientific returns, geopolitical leadership, and the enduring 

value of human and robotic space exploration, the program also offers the prospect of substantial 

economic growth and enhanced U.S. national competitiveness. 

NASA funds commercial lunar initiatives that follow in the footsteps of the successful Commercial 

Orbital Transportation Services (COTS), Commercial Resupply Services (CRS), and Commercial Crew 

(CCrew) programs that revolutionized space transportation, cargo supply to low-Earth orbit, and human 

spaceflight. The Commercial Lunar Payload Services (CLPS) program, Human Landing System (HLS)

program, and NextSTEP Broad Agency Announcement (BAA) lunar initiatives seek to fund commercial 

and private companies to deliver payloads, services, and astronauts to the lunar surface.i Much like earlier 

commercial programs, the intention is to grow U.S. commercial technical capability, broaden the space 

sector, and provide the impetus for innovation. 

This study summarizes the economic and national competitiveness benefits of the Artemis program to 

complement its inherent values of scientific discovery, technology development, space exploration and 

global leadership. It includes a brief background on the success of NASA’s historical commercial space 

initiatives and how Artemis program is an extension of COTS and Commercial Crew. It also examines 

how the Artemis program may benefit the U.S. economy by driving innovation and new capabilities, 

lowering the cost of access to space, improving market competition and expanding the potential customer 

base. Finally, it provides an assessment of the Artemis program’s role in helping U.S. firms compete in 

the global marketplace and the role of government in funding early-stage technology development. This 

study primarily focuses on the economic and national competitiveness impacts of the commercial 

elements of the program, and suggests they represent an evolution of the COTS/CCrew programs. 

Additional perspective on the significant impacts of all Moon to Mars programs (including ISS, SLS, 

Orion, Gateway, HLS, CLPS, etc) is referenced in the appendix. 

Key Highlights: 

• NASA’s selection of the SpaceX Starship vehicle for a human lunar landing mission helps build a 

new commercial launch capability. Due to its size, this vehicle may lower launch costs to orbit 

significantly, expand the potential customer base for launch services, and increase U.S. market 

share. 

• The CLPS program provides service contracts to companies building robotic lunar landers with a 

lower cost and shorter development schedule than previous missions. These companies also offer 

payload delivery services to commercial and international customers. CLPS supports the 

development of a new, multibillion-dollar space subsector in lunar surface operations. 

• Artemis drives innovation with challenging program requirements and its “mission-driven” 

approach. Potential solutions for lunar surface missions include technologies in compact power 
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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Orbital Launches

Non-Commercial Launches

Commercial Launches

systems, synthetic biology, additive manufacturing, on-orbit fuel transfer, lunar surface mobility, 

and materials science. 

• Economic activity from “Moon to Mars” programs across the U.S. includes: 

More than 69,000 jobs

Spending that supports more than $14 billion in total economic output 

An estimated $1.5 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenues nationwide 

• National competitiveness impacts include the diffusion of new space technology more broadly 

across U.S. space enterprise, expansion of the U.S. technical workforce and STEM talent 

pipeline, enhancement of U.S. soft power, and stronger capacity of U.S. space firms to compete 

globally. 

Commercial Space Programs in Perspective

The COTS program enabled U.S. private industry to develop space transportation capabilities with the 

goal of safe, reliable, and cost-effective access to 

low-Earth orbit. Ultimately, this program delivered 

two new low-cost U.S. launch vehicles carrying 

cargo to and from the ISS: SpaceX Falcon 9 and 

Orbital Antares. The vehicles can also be used at a 

cost-savings advantage for small and mid-sized

NASA Science missions (e.g., Transiting 

Exoplanet Survey Satellite, Jason-3, Sentinel-6 

Michael Freilich). Riding on the success of the 

Falcon 9, SpaceX grew its share of the global 

commercial launch market from 0% in 2011 to 

78% in 2020 (and over 50% of overall launch 

market worldwide in 2021, excluding China). 

SpaceX also jumpstarted the nanosatellite and 

CubeSat markets. 

Orbital Launches

(2010 to 2020)

Commercial launches include internationally competed 

launches, any launch in which the primary spacecraft and 

launch vehicle are commercially owned or operated, and 

test launches of commercial launch vehicles. Launches 

procured under COTS, CRS, or CCrew are commercial.

Source: BryceTech

With the success of the launch vehicles, NASA 

entered into major multibillion-dollar commercial 

cargo resupply services (CRS) contracts with the 

two firms, creating future robustness for ISS cargo 

transportation. Building further upon these 

programs, NASA initiated the CCrew program for

private sector firms to carry U.S. astronauts into 

orbit. To date, SpaceX has launched four crewed missions to the ISS (with several additional missions 

planned). A second competitor, Boeing’s Starliner vehicle, is under development and slated for a crewed 

demonstration mission in 2022. 

Economic Impacts of the Artemis Program

It’s important to note that the Artemis program rebuilds capabilities not present in the U.S. space 

enterprise since the Apollo era. In many cases, a capability has not existed for decades, the production 

knowledge has disappeared, and new technology must be invented.
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Artemis offers the chance to reconstitute the American moon program, which includes super-heavy 

launch vehicles (SLS, Starship); Earth-return-capable crewed spacecraft (Orion); lunar orbit docking; 

lunar landing system (Starship HLS); and lunar surface EVA suits. In addition, sustainable human 

presence requires wholly new elements, including the Gateway, on-orbit fuel transfers, and lunar surface 

habitation and expanded mobility capabilities. One prominent commercial example central to Artemis is 

the SpaceX Starship HLS. Another is the Gateway Logistics Services.

NASA intends the initial Human Landing System contract ($2.9 billion) to procure payload delivery of 

multiple tons of cargo and astronauts to the surface of the moon in the 2020s. The selection of the indevelopment Starship rocket and HLS crew lander to deliver U.S. astronauts to the lunar surface can have 

far-reaching impacts. The following sections describe how Artemis can expand economic growth 

similarly to previous commercial space programs (COTS, CRS, CCrew). 

Timeline of major NASA Human Exploration Commercial Contracts

Source: NASA OIG Report data

New capabilities and lower cost access to space

• Starship HLS is to provide a cargo delivery and astronaut landing capability for NASA. Other 

potential revenues in the future include lunar tourism and payload delivery (estimates are highly 

variable and range from several million to over a billion dollars).

ii The ability to deliver tons of 

cargo, which may include scientific and commercial payloads, concurrently with astronaut 

landings offers a major rideshare opportunity to advance scientific, diplomatic, and economic 

development aims. In addition, broader strategic government interests in cislunar space may 

become possible with this new capability. 

• Just as with the ISS, the regular provision of cargo and payload delivery underpins the future 

long-term establishment of a robust anchor tenet. The anchor for Artemis is infrastructure on the 

surface of the moon and in lunar orbit (Gateway). Due to the expense and complexity involved in 

these missions, NASA and international partners will be the first customers, but the customer 

base may eventually evolve towards stronger commercial and private sector participation. The 

initial steady stream of government contracts can ensure new capabilities and services are

maintained until they reach commercial profitability. 

• Starship’s lift capability (>100t to LEO) is significantly greater than existing commercial launch 

vehicles (SLS Blk 2 will have a similar capability). As larger vehicles have come on line, the 
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0 10 20 30 40

Transportation

Structures and Habitats

ISRU

Supply Chain

Communications

PNT

Private Goods

Science / Data Collection

United States Germany Japan

Luxembourg United Kingdom Israel

Canada Hungary France

Belgium Austria

cost/per kg to orbit has dropped for many applications.

iii Lowering the cost of access to space has 

historically opened up new space sectors, including nanosatellites, CubeSats, Earth Observation, 

and communications satellite constellations, as well as the development of larger, more 

sophisticated satellites. 

Source: NASA OIG

• Low-cost access to space has inverted the historical supply-demand curve in the space launch 

market. Where once high-cost suppliers had trouble fulfilling demand, today demand outstrips 

available low-cost launch 

supply. Consequently, entirely 

new customers and 

architectures in orbit become 

possible: from universities and 

private citizens to Earth 

observation CubeSats and 

LEO-based internet 

constellations. While 

commercial demand drivers 

for cislunar and lunar surface 

appear nascent now, as costs 

decrease and opportunities 

increase, the demand is likely 

to change. The figure (right) 

shows the proliferation of 

Lunar Companies by Sector and Country

Source: STPI
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lunar companies worldwide across multiple subsectors, including entirely new commercial 

interests such as ISRU. 

Market competition and improved value to government

• The initial procurements for CLPS, HLS, and 

other NextSTEP BAA awards were broadly 

competed, with selections based on technical, 

cost, and management factors.iv There are 

fourteen eligible vendors for CLPS contracts, 

with major task order awards to four lunar 

payload service companies. Similarly, while a 

single firm received an HLS contract, multiple 

firms competed and are eligible to compete for 

follow-on missions. Market competition 

supports the broadening of expertise across the 

industry and generally drives per-mission costs 

down. Robotic lunar payload services and 

crewed astronaut landing support are now 

multibillion-dollar space subsectors. 

• Firm competition showcases a strength of the American economy and system of government, 

drawing a notable contrast to the space programs of military-controlled and state capitalist 

systems. 

Improving Value to the Government Through 

Innovative Contracting 

By awarding a firm-fixed price contract, NASA 

departed from traditional fee-plus contracts 

that have seen program costs spiral. Elements 

of the cislunar Gateway platform have also 

followed this new contract model. If 

successful, the new model may lead to 

procurement reforms to improve government 

efficiency, enabling better distribution of 

resources to other elements of the Artemis 

program. 

Program Characteristics 

Traditional 

Approach 

Commercial-Oriented 

Approach 

Owner NASA Industry 

Contract type Cost-plus Fixed price 

Contract management Prime contractor Public-private partnership 

Customers NASA Government and nongovernment 

Funding for capability development NASA procures capability NASA provides "milestone" 

payments as agreed goals are 

reached 

NASA's role in capability 

development 

NASA defines "what" and "how" Industry defines "how" and NASA 

approves 

Requirements definition NASA defines detailed requirements NASA defines only higher-level 

requirements 

Cost structure NASA incurs total cost NASA and industry share costs 

Source: NASA Space Operations Mission Directorate / Exploration Systems Development Mission Directorate

Expansion of customer base for lunar flights, services, and payload delivery 

• The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) expressed interest in procuring payload services for 

upcoming commercial flights to and around the moon. Given the utility of this domain and the 

funding capacity of the customer, DOD may eventually be an important source of revenue. 

• In the last few years, the roster of countries interested in fielding robotic missions to the moon 

grew to include UAE, Israel, S. Korea, and India. Countries interested in providing instruments 
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for upcoming lunar missions include Germany, France, Saudi Arabia, and others. Astrobotic and 

other companies have acknowledged they maintain significant pending contracts for lunar 

payload delivery services from over a dozen countries (although for many customers there may 

be an uncertain ability to fulfill these commitments). A greater revenue base for American lunar 

companies provides financial robustness and market certainty, allowing them to grow their 

operations and create more high-paying U.S. jobs. 

Commercial human spaceflight 

• The CCrew program and successful demonstration of carrying astronauts to the ISS paved the 

way for the recent all-civilian Inspiration4 mission to orbit.v

 Using the Dragon crew capsule 

(reused from Crew-1 mission to the ISS) and the Falcon 9 rocket, the Inspiration4 mission was 

commercially procured by a private citizen and featured a charity fundraising element. After 

years of apparent stagnation, private astronaut missions are quite literally taking off. In addition 

to Inspiration4, Space Adventures flew a Japanese billionaire to the ISS in late 2021; one mission 

chartered by Axiom brought private citizens to the ISS in April 2022; Russia’s Roscosmos lofted 

a filmmaker and leading actor to the station to film a movie production in October 2021; Blue 

Origin has flown three commercial missions; and Virgin Galactic has flown one mission to the 

edge of space. The estimated per-flight cost of these missions varies from several hundred 

thousand dollars to over $70 million, depending on the vehicle, destination, and duration. 

NASA’s Awards for Commercial Cargo and Crew Activities Through 2024 (2018 est.)

Driver of innovation

• NASA’s lunar programs are largely based on the model, processes, and contractual agreements 

pioneered by commercial space programs.

1

 Such investments in private sector R&D have 

historically yielded significant advances in launch technology, avionics, and spacecraft design not 

foreseen or planned by the government (such as reusable rockets). The complexity of the human 

landing system and lunar surface operations is likely to generate advances in technology similar 

1 NASA estimates that the development of Falcon 9 cost $400 million, or roughly ten times less than if built under traditional 

government contracting.
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to how the Apollo missions advanced state-of-the-art in materials science, microelectronics, life 

support systems, and other areas. The figure (right) illustrates significant momentum of corporate 

and private sector investment in new space companies. This financing enables companies to 

develop innovative new hardware/software, generate revenue, become profitable and contribute 

to national economic growth. It may also help companies broaden their customer base beyond 

government to encourage greater stability and financial robustness. 

Space start-up ventures are any space firm that has 

received and reported seed funding or venture capital. 

Source: BryceTech

• In a “moonshot” approach to innovation, 

high-technology R&D historically has 

greater economic impacts than many other 

areas of public sector investment.vi

• Technology spinoffs have historically been 

a significant benefit of government 

investment in basic and applied R&D, 

broadly diffused to U.S. companies. 

Currently, the need for power on 

the surface of the moon is 

generating interest and investment 

in small, modular reactors. If 

established as a viable technology, 

these reactors would have 

tremendous variety of terrestrial 

applications and could provide for

populations presently underserved. 

(See, for example, a startup 

developing this technology.)vii

Food for space explorers may be 

developed using synthetic biology, given the absence of traditional organic ingredients 

and agricultural methods in space.viii NASA’s SynBio project aims to find a pathway to 

convert carbon dioxide into organic compounds and enable biomanufacturing in space. 

Such technologies could lead to the development of long shelf-life foods, new and more 

sustainable techniques for creating medicines and plastics, and more efficient and less 

wasteful global agricultural practices. 

Additive manufacturing in space, including 3D-printed solar panels on the lunar surface, 

may yield manufacturing advances that can both accelerate the creation of space 

infrastructure and be utilized on Earth. The establishment of infrastructure is crucial to 

expanding human presence in Earth orbit, cislunar space, and the lunar surface. In-space 

manufacturing may enable platforms and satellites at much larger scales than what can be 

launched into orbit.ix Already, in-space manufacturing on the ISS yields ultra-highfidelity fiber optics (e.g., ZBLAN) and protein crystal growth in microgravity that 

surpasses the quality produced in terrestrial labs. Using regolith on the moon to build 

structures, including protective shields against solar radiation, may ultimately enable 

long-term presence on the moon. Such a foundational technology also has terrestrial 

applications, as remote populations and resource exploration platforms can benefit 

greatly from the ability to manufacture on-demand tools, parts, and other items.

The ISS is an important testbed and demonstration platform for Artemis missions. Over 

its roughly 20-year lifetime, it has yielded a number of significant breakthroughs with 

applications in medicine, physics, chemistry, materials science, and other areas.x
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Broad economic impacts

• The broad Moon to Mars effort employs thousands of highly skilled professionals, and the U.S. 

Government channels billions of dollars into states through its contracts. 

• M2M’s economic impact goes beyond its immediate employment of NASA civil servants. The 

program creates wide-ranging benefits for local and state economies, as well as the U.S. 

economy, as NASA’s contracting boosts economic activity elsewhere in the country:xi

Economic activity across the U.S. supports more than 69,000 jobs.

Spending supports more than $14 billion in total economic output across the country.

M2M programs generate an estimated $1.5 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenues 

nationwide. 

The supplier base for major programs, such as SLS, is spread out over all 50 U.S. states, 

supporting initiatives such as “Buy American” and strengthening our domestic supply 

chain. 

National Competitiveness Impacts of the Artemis Program 

National competitiveness is a measure of a nation’s firms’ ability to compete in the global marketplace. 

Competitiveness depends on the ability of firms to innovate and upgrade, and claim greater market share. 

Different factors contribute to this ability. For commercial lunar firms and the Artemis program, the most 

important factors are technology development, workforce, market conditions, and government role. U.S. 

economic growth has slowed in recent decades, largely due to globalization, as technology-based 

economic competitors take ever greater shares of high value-added markets at the expense of U.S. 

domestic industries.xii To remain competitive, U.S. firms need to maintain a world-class technical

workforce and sustain robust investment in technology. 

CLPS companies such as Astrobotic and Intuitive Machines and HLS companies such as SpaceX develop 

technologies that do not currently exist commercially, including advances in low-cost manufacturing and 

spacecraft design. These technologies may ultimately diffuse to other space companies. NASA’s recent 

missions to lunar orbit (LRO, LADEE) cost ~$250 to $583 million and did not feature a lander, generally 

a more costly and complex element. In contrast, cost estimates for the first CLPS lander missions are 

~$80 million, and ~$200 million for the VIPER surface rover mission. The diffusion and rapid maturation 
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of technology is at the core of the commercial lunar effort, as NASA seeks to harness private sector 

innovation to speed up mission development and lower costs. Furthermore, supporting entrepreneurship 

and incorporating new companies into high-tech supply chains broadens areas for innovation and can 

make supply chains more resilient and robust. 

A strong technical workforce is 

critical to U.S. industries, requiring a 

robust pipeline of talent from 

students to institutional academia to 

eventual STEM careers. The Artemis 

missions represent humanity’s first 

return to the moon in nearly 50 years, 

and the majority of student-age and 

early-career STEM professionals 

have no direct memory of the moon 

landings or their far-reaching cultural

and social impacts. As such, Artemis 

is a once-in-a-generation opportunity 

to recruit scientific and engineering 

talent into U.S. academic, 

government, and private industries. 

The ability of U.S. firms, especially those involved in high-technology areas, to attract and retain top 

talent both domestically and abroad is a cornerstone of our national competitiveness. 

Commercial Lunar Payload Services – Destinations and Payloads

Market conditions suggest a firm’s success may be predicated on having robust revenue and investment 

strategy and a sophisticated and deep customer base. The influx of private equity, angel or venture capital, 

and SPAC-supported and other corporate investment into the private sector is currently at an apex 

(approaching $9 billion in 2020), with the U.S. accounting for over 64% of all investment worldwide.xiii

Although the market for lunar payloads and services is not as strong now as in other space subsectors 

(e.g., launch, sat com), the U.S. market is more robust than any in the world. This robustness is in part 

due to multi-year government contracts for lunar services, which currently represent up to $5 billion, by 

far the most significant funding for private sector lunar missions globally. Early government support in 

the form of services contracts and R&D funds has historically been critical for companies to mature past 

the high-risk phase of development until private and corporate financing is willing to step in. 

Finally, as noted above, the government’s role can be critical in early stage technology development. 

NASA has taken a strong position supporting a broad array of competitive firms and funding service 

contracts to enable mission development. Artemis is mission-oriented innovation, with government 

proposing a strategic mission and American firms stepping up to deliver. NASA creates missions (and the 

enabling policy and regulatory environment) but does not create or fix markets. The “moonshot” 

approach to innovation, pioneered by the Apollo program, suggests that strong government support for 

radical technology development to tackle unsolvable problems can yield major change. As a driver for 

economic growth, few levers are more powerful than creating new high-technology sectors of the 

economy in which firms can flourish. Government missions as varied as spaceflight, weapon systems, and 

energy storage led to the miniaturization of hard drives, microprocessors, improved lithium battery 

storage, HTTP/HTML code, and capacitive screens. Adopted by Apple and smartphone makers, these 

innovations revolutionized communications and IT industries, generating trillions in market value.xiv 
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One first step in establishing the legal and policy grounds for ownership of space resources will take place 

in the early 2020’s. In August 2021, as part of an agreement between NASA and the firm Lunar Outpost 

to provide 4G communications as part of the Artemis program, Lunar Outpost also agreed to scoop up a 

sample of lunar regolith, take a picture, send it back to Earth and transfer ownership of the dust to NASA. 

The goal is to conduct the first sale of resources in space. For the most part, major commercial prospects 

for such endeavors currently remain in the well into the future. Speculating out to the 2030’s and beyond, 

we might envision entirely new markets emerging. Once companies have established a toehold on the 

lunar surface and in cislunar orbit, they may provide services such as transportation to destinations in the 

Earth-Moon system, electrical power, rocket fuel depots, water extraction, and resource mining. 

A recent surge in startups and financing support is tempered by forecasts suggesting significant 

commercial revenue may be beyond a 15-year window in most cases.xv Yet other nations are pursuing 

expansive plans for long-term lunar exploration and research bases, bringing the moon and cislunar space 

into Earth’s economic sphere. A U.S. national exploration strategy should be no less visionary. Future 

systems of governance around the moon and in Earth orbit are likely to be modeled after those nations 

with a commanding presence. Ideals that the U.S. champions on Earth today, including the expansion of 

liberal free market democracy, may help set the stage for humanity’s future in space. 

Conclusion

The Artemis program is likely to generate significant economic impacts, improve innovation and 

technology development in the space sector, and contribute to the growth of the U.S. STEM pipeline. The 

market environments of the COTS, CRS, and CCrew programs may be different from those encountered 

by the lunar commercial programs. However, the lunar programs are expected to mature over a longer 

time horizon. The most important demand drivers in the near term are likely to be NASA and other 

government agencies. Significant non-government revenues are likely to be realized from upgraded 

launch capabilities and demonstrated lunar crew landing capabilities developed as part of the early 

Artemis missions. 
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References 

i https://www.nasa.gov/content/commercial-lunar-payload-services-overview; 

https://www.nasa.gov/nextstep/humanlander2; https://www.nasa.gov/content/nextstep-overview ii https://www.ida.org/research-and-publications/publications/all/d/de/demand-drivers-of-the-lunar-and-cislunareconomy

iii Falcon Heavy currently offers approximately ~$1,400-2,300 to LEO, the lowest in the world by a factor of two to 

three times. Source: https://www.spacex.com/media/Capabilities&Services.pdf

iv https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/option-a-source-selection-statement-final.pdf v https://inspiration4.com

vi (2018) Tassey, Greg. “The Economic Rationales and Impacts of Technology-Based Economic Development 

Policies”. 

https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2021/01/15/DOMESTIC%20TBED%20Programs__Policy%20Targets

%20and%20Impacts.pdf

vii For example, Radiant startup founded by former SpaceX engineers: https://www.powermag.com/former-spacexengineers-tout-new-microreactor/

viii https://www.nasa.gov/directorates/spacetech/game_changing_development/projects/SynBio ix https://madeinspace.us/blog/2020/06/22/how-in-space-manufacturing-will-impact-the-global-space-economy/ x https://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/station/research/news/iss-20-years-20-breakthroughs xi https://www.nasa.gov/sites/default/files/atoms/files/2020_nasa_eir_brochure_for_fy19.pdf

xii Tassey, Greg (2018). 

https://www.nist.gov/system/files/documents/2021/01/15/DOMESTIC%20TBED%20Programs__Policy%20Targets

%20and%20Impacts.pdf

xiii https://www.cnbc.com/2021/01/25/investing-in-space-companies-hits-record-8point9-billion-in-2020-report.html

xiv https://www.oecd.org/naec/NAEC_Mazzucato.pdf xv https://www.technologyreview.com/2019/06/26/134510/asteroid-mining-bubble-burst-history/