NASA Advisory Council Recommendation 

Lowering the Cost of Expendable Launch Services 

2011-02-06 (SC-Ol) 

Recommendation: 

We recommend that NASA work aggressively to lower the cost of expendable launch services 

through whatever means possible. This may include block buys or other innovative approaches 

in the NASA Launch Services II (NLS II) contract and pursuing alternate sources such as new 

commercial entries and international collaborations. 

Major Reasons for the Recommendation: 

The new NLS II contract greatly increases the cost of launch services, resulting in loss ofthe 

number of flight missions that the NASA Science Mission Directorate (SMD) can afford. 

Consequences of No Action on the Recommendation: 

The SMD launch rate will be reduced and there will be reductions in the science content ofthose 

missions that are launched. 

NASA Response: 

NASA concurs; however, the nature ofthe challenges that affects our ability to gain access to 

space differs across Expendable Launch Vehicle (EL V) size classes. 

For the small launch vehicles that support the small payload class, the prices from the original 

NLS contract (AKA: NLS I) to the new NLS II contract have remained essentially the same. 

(See Attachment 1.) The larger concern for this payload class is the lack ofrobust launch 

demand. Several launch service providers have offered launch vehicles for this class (Le., 

Orbital Sciences Corporation's (OSC) Pegasus and Taurus, SpaceX's Falcon 1I1e, and 

Lockheed!ATK's Athena lc), but the market has not developed in a way to provide a manifest 

where multiple commercial flights can be manifested and flown each year. As evidence, NASA 

has averaged less than one small launch vehicle flight a year since 1998. (See Attachment 2.) In 

addition, the FAA's "2011 Commercial Space Transportation Forecasts" dated May 2011, 

predicts an average international demand in this launch vehicle class over the next ten years of 

1.9 small launch vehicles for commercial payloads per year. Without multiple flights each year, 

it is difficult for industry to maintain a viable business case. This low launch rate becomes a 

concern for achieving robust launch reliability as evidenced by the last two OSC Taurus XL 

flights that ended in back-to-back launch failures for the Orbiting Climate Observatory (OCO) 

mission in February 2009 and for the Glory mission in March 2011. 

For medium launch vehicles, the transition from NLS I to NLS II conveys some price increases. 

But the real issue here is the current lack of certified launch vehicles to support the medium 

payload class into the future. The current NLS II contract offers Falcon 9 and Athena Hc for the 

medium class. The Lockheed! ATK Athena Hc has not yet flown. The SpaceX Falcon 9 has had 

two successful demonstration flights; but this vehicle is still in development and has not 

completed the NASA certification process. Currently, the only certified medium launch vehicle 

Enclosure 
2 

is the United Launch Alliance (ULA) Delta II. However, it is not currently available for 

procurement on the NLS II contract. NASA's last planned flight of Delta will be on the 

NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite in October 2011. ULA has indicated to NASA that 

they plan to "on-ramp" Delta II during the summer and fall of 2011 so it can be offered as part of 

the NLS II. But there are only five vehicles left in inventory, and ULA has no plans to restart 

production. Other options to support the medium class include co-manifesting missions with 

other missions and users and seeking the ability to use the OSC Minotaur IV launch vehicle, 

based on excess Inter-Continental Ballistic Missile assets, on a limited basis as national policy 

will allow. 

The area where price is the key issue is the large payload class. Large NASA payloads are 

supported by what the U.S. launch industry describes as "intermediate" launch vehicles. 

Currently, the only certified intermediate launch vehicle available on the NLS II contract is the 

ULA Atlas V. The Atlas V prices have increased substantially from the NLS I to the NLS II 

contract due primarily to the business case faced by the supplier, ULA. The U.S. Government is 

moving to provide a more stable demand expectation that will improve this business case. On 

March 10,2011, NASA signed a Memorandum ofUnderstanding with the U.S. Air Force and 

the National Reconnaissance Office that will allow NASA to take advantage ofreduced Evolved 

Expendable Launch Vehicle (EEL V) prices once the Air Force puts the new EEL V block buy 

acquisition strategy in place. The Air Force's current plan is to have the new strategy in place 

for Fiscal Year 2013 through Fiscal Year 2017. 

NASA also supports the addition and use of new entrants in all classes of launch vehicles in 

order to continue to facilitate and encourage competition, which will be the true motivator for 

reduced launch service prices over the long term. Through Commercial Orbital Transportation 

Services (COTS), Commercial Resupply Services (CRS) and Commercial Crew Development 

(CCDev), NASA is providing development dollars and facilitating development and operational 

flights ofmultiple vendors in order to promote competition and provide the ability to achieve 

significant flight rates. Additionally, a key change was made to the NLS I contract and carried 

forward into the new NLS II contract that allows a provider to become a supplier on the NASA 

launch services contract even ifthey have not yet flown, as long as they are able to meet the 

terms and information requirements ofthe contract, 

NASA actively pursues international partnerships on many of its science missions and, within 

the limits imposed by national policy, adopts arrangements involving a partner-provided launch 

vehicle. These occur in both strategic missions planned and implemented by NASA and in 

competed missions in which a Principal Investigator proposes a mission involving a foreign 

partner. However, the purchase of a non-U.S. launch vehicle for a NASA science mission is not 

permitted, regardless of domestic availability issues, unless NASA is exempted by the National 

Security Council and the Office of Science and Technology Policy, subject to interagency 

coordination, from the National Space Policy's requirement to launch U.S. Government payloads 

on space launch vehicles manufactured in the U.S. 

In every ELV class, NASA is aggressively pursuing all available options. We will keep the 

NAC and its committees informed of our progress. 
NASA EL V Cost Comparison 


Total Mission Cost Comparison 


1999-2010 (NLS I) 2010-2015 (NLS II) 

Small $30-75M S'mall $32M -,$114M 

Medium $50-80M Medium $102M - $136M 

Intermediate $100-125M Intermediate $102M - $334M 

NLS I costs based on historical actuals 

NLS II costs are projected costs using pre-negotiated contract Not-To-Exceed 

(NTE) values. Actual launch service price may be lower than NTE pending 

results of head-to-head competition or mission negotiation 

Price will also vary depending on required performance/orbit/order year 

IAttachment 1 I 
NASA Launch Services Program (LSP) Launch History (1998 - 2011) 


Small Class 

Athena (AT) 

Pegasus XL (PXL) 

Pegasus Hybrid (pHYS) 

Taurus (T) 

Medium Class 

Delta II (011) 

Delta II Heavy (DIIH) 

Delta III (0111) 

Intermediate I Heavy Class 

Atlas II (IIA) 

Atlas II with Solids (lIAS) 

Atlas V (AV) 

Delta IV (DIV) 

Titan II (Til) 

Launch Sites 

Eastern Range (ER) 

Western Range (WR) 

Kodiak (K) 

Kwajalein (Kw) 

Wallops (W) 

Launch Failure =* 

~ WIRE (PXL) 

(WR) 3/4199 

SWAS(PXL}I 

(WR) 1215/98 *= 1 

I 

MUBLCOM (PXL) i KODIAK STAR (AT) 

(WR) 5/17/99 ~ (K) 9/29/01 

~ 

GALEX(PXL 

(ER) 4128/03 

(WR) 3/25/0 I ~ 

I SCISAT (PXL 

*= 

DART (PXL) 

(WR) 4/15/05 

ST·5 (PXL) 

(WR) 3/22106 

~ 

IBEX (PXL) 

(Kwaj) 1 I 

,NOAA·N' . 

(WR) 216/09 

~ I f IMAGE (0111 ' 

I MARS LANDER 1 I I AQUA (Oil) I(WR) 8/12103 

DEEP SPACE 2 (Oil) (WR) 5/4/02 I I I I 'ocorn 

SDO(AV} 

(ER) 2111/10 

I (E1R) 1/3199 • O~:~S:~J?II} I DEEP SPACE·ll E01/SAC.CI . 

SEDSAT 

(ER) 10/24198 

(Oil) I 

(WR) 

MUNN 

11/21/00 

(Oil) I

I

sT1RDuST (Oil) CONTOUR (Oil! 

ER) 217/99 (ER) 7/3/02 

' 

MAP (Oil) ICESAT I 

(ER) 6/30/01 CHIPSAT (DII}I 

MARS I I (WR) 1/12103 

ORBITER 1 (Oil) 

. (ER) 12111/981 LANDSAT.7.(DII) I 

(WR) 4115/99 . 0 

I 

GENESIS (011 

GPB(DII} 

(WR) 4/20/04 

I AURA (Oil) 

R} 7/15/04 

GOES·L (IIA) TDRS·I (IIA I 

I (ER) 5/3/00 (ER) 3/8/02 

I (ER) 8/8/01 I MER·A(DII) I

STEREO 

(ER) 10/25/06 

DEEP 

IMPACT (011 

(ER) 1/12105 

, 

I I (WR) 2124/09 . GLAST (011 H) 

(ER) 6111/08 I 

THEMIS(DII! 

(ER) 2117/071 

KEPLER (Oil) 

(ER) 3/6/09 

! HORIZON 

PLUTO • 

(AV·551) 

NEW I

(ER) 1/19/06 

I 

I 

OSTM(DII} 

(WR) 6/20/0 I NOAA·N(DII} 

(WR) 5/20/05 

, 

PHOENIX (011 

(ER) 8/4107 

STSS ATRR (Oil) 

(WR) 5/5109 

I (ER) 6/10/03 

FUSE (Oil) 

(ER) 6/24/99 ' 

TDRS·H (IIA) . NOAA·M (Till D MESSENGER (011 H) 

(ER) 6/30/0~ ...._~<!~ .... I (ER) 8/3/04 

~ i 

CALIPSOI 

CLOUDSAT (oil) 

(WR) i I 

I 

TERRA 

(EOS·AM1) (liAS) 

(WR) 12118/99 

I I 

NOAA·L 

I DOD 

.. I(WR) 9/21/00 

QUIKSCAT 

DOD 

6/19/99 

JASON I 

TIMED (Oil) 

(ER) 1217/01 

I 

(011 H) 

(ER) 8/25/03 I i SWIFT (Oil) 

(ER) 11/20/04 

(DIIH) 

(ER) 7/7/03 

MRO. 

(ER) 8/12105 

NOTE: The visual depiction of launch vehicles are not 

exact and are for representation purposes only. 

DAWN (011 H) 

(ER) 9/27/07 

LRO·LCROSS (AV) 

(ER) 6/18/09 

I 

STSS DEMO (Oil) 

(ER) 9/25/09 

I 

WISE (Oil) 

• Glory (T 

(WR) 3/4111 

I 

AQUARIUS 

(WR) 6/10/11 

NASA LSP LV Launch Success Rate: 65 Attempts 163 Successes = 96.9% (Refer to successlfailure guidelines in Metric 0773 within the LSP Basic Ordering 

Agreement (BOA).) 

Tiffany Naill KSC 

6/15/11 

Attachment 2 (Page 1/3) 
LSP Launch History (1998 - 2011) 


Taurus XL F WR KSC 

Delta II S WR KSC 

912512009 STSSDEMO Delta II ER KSC 

611812009 lRO-LCROSS Atlas V KSC 

515mJ09 STSSATRR [)eltall KSC 

3/612009 KEPLER Delta II KSC 

2124J2009 OCO Taurus F WR KSC 

ZffiI2009 NOAA .... Prime Delta II S WR KSC 

1011912008 IBEX Pegasus Xl S Kwaj KSC 

6JlOJ2008 Delta II S WR KSC 

611112008 Delta H S ER KSC 

912712007 Delta II S ER KSC 

81412007 Delta II S ER KSC 

412512007 Pegasus XL S WR KSC 

2/1712007 Delta II S ER KSC 

1DJ2512006 STEREO Delta II S ER KSC 

412812006 lCloudsat Delta II S WR KSC 

3I22J2006 SPACETECH5 Pegasus S WR KSC 

1/1912006 Pluto New Horizons Atlas V S ER KSC 

81121'2005 Mars Recon Orbiter (MRO) Atlas V S ER KS'C 

NOAA .... Delta II S WR KSC 

DART Pegasus Xl S WR KSC 

DEEP IMPACT Delta II S ER KSC 

SWIFT Delta U S ER KSC 

MESSENGER Delta II S ER C 

7/1512004 AURA Delta II S WR KSC 

412012004 GPB Delta II S WR KSC 

8Q5J2003 SIRIF Delta II S ER KSC 

81121'2003 SCISat Pegasus Xl S WR KSC 

7"12~3 MER-B Delta II S ER KSC 

611012003 MER-A Delta U S ER KSC 

412812003 GALEX Pegasus Xl S ER KSC 

112512003 SORCE Pegasus Xl ER KSC 

1/121'2003 ICESatlCHIPsat Delta II S WR KSC 

Attachment 2 (Page 2/3) 
-- -------------

LSP launch History (1998 - 2011) 


71312002 De'lta II S KSC 

612412002 Titan II S WR KSCIII 2002 I 51412G02 Delta II S WR KSCIII 

318/2002 AtlasllA S ER KSCIII 

21612002 Pegasus Xl S ER KSC

• III •

•

•

121112001 Delta II S WR KSCII 

912912001 AtIlena S Kodiak KSCIII 

2001 1 8J8I2001 Genisis Delta II S ER KSCIII 

1/2312001 GOES.... Alas S ER KSCII 

III613012001 Delta ,. S ER KSCII

•

•

41112001 MARS Odyssey Delta II S ER KSCII 

1112112000 E01. SAC-C, MUN Delta II S WR KSCII 

101912000 Hete-2 Pegasus S Kwaj KSC III II 

2000 1912112000 NOAA-LC16) Titan II S WR KSCIII 

613012000 AtlasllA S ER KSCIII 

51512000 GOES~L (11) Atlas s ER KSCIII •

312512000 IMAGE Delta II S WR KSC •

• •

II 

1mS/1999 EOS-Terra Alas S WR KSC 

612411999 FUSE Delta II S ER KSC III II 

612011999 Titan II S WR KSC III III 

5118/1999 PegasltB-XIJHAPS S WR KSC III II 1999 • 411511999 Delta II S WR KSCIII 

3/411999 Pegasus-XL S WR KSCIII 

211/1999 STARDUST Delta II S ER KSCIII 

11311999 Mars Polar lander Delta II S ER KSCII 

1m1f1998 Mars Climate Orbiter Delta II S ER KSCII 

1998 

•••

•III121611998 SWAS Pegasus-XL S WR KSCIII 

1012411998 Deepspace 1 {SEDSAT} DeltaH s ER KSC 

Attachment 2 (Page 3/3)