II 

110TH CONGRESS 

1ST SESSION S. 1018 

To address security risks posed by global climate change and for other 

purposes. 

IN THE SENATE OF THE UNITED STATES 

MARCH 28, 2007 

Mr. DURBIN (for himself, Mr. HAGEL, and Mrs. FEINSTEIN) introduced the 

following bill; which was read twice and referred to the Select Committee 

on Intelligence 

A BILL 

To address security risks posed by global climate change 

and for other purposes. 

1 Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representa2 tives of the United States of America in Congress assembled, 

3 SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE. 

4 This Act may be cited as the ‘‘Global Climate Change 

5 Security Oversight Act’’. 

6 SEC. 2. FINDINGS. 

7 Congress makes the following findings: 

8 (1) According to the National Oceanic and At9 mospheric Administration, in 2007 the average an10 nual temperature in the United States and around 


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1 the globe is approximately 1.0 degree Fahrenheit 

2 warmer than at the start of the 20th century, and 

3 the rate of warming has accelerated during the past 

4 30 years, increasing globally since the mid-1970s. 

5 The fourth assessment report of the Intergovern6 mental Panel on Climate Change has predicted that 

7 the Earth will warm 0.72 degrees Fahrenheit during 

8 the next 2 decades with current emission trends. 

9 (2) The annual national security strategy report 

10 submitted pursuant to section 108 of the National 

11 Security Act of 1947 (50 U.S.C. 404a) for 2006 

12 states that the United States faces new security 

13 challenges, including ‘‘environmental destruction, 

14 whether caused by human behavior or cataclysmic 

15 mega-disasters such as floods, hurricanes, earth16 quakes, or tsunamis. Problems of this scope may 

17 overwhelm the capacity of local authorities to re18 spond, and may even overtax national militaries, re19 quiring a larger international response. These chal20 lenges are not traditional national security concerns, 

21 such as the conflict of arms or ideologies. But if left 

22 unaddressed they can threaten national security.’’. 

23 (3) According to the fourth assessment report 

24 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 

25 average temperature increases of between 2 and 4 


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1 degrees Celsius over preindustrial levels are pro2 jected to cause the sea level to rise by between 2 and 

3 4 meters by 2100 due to melting of the Greenland 

4 and Antarctic ice sheets. 

5 (4) In 2007, more than 200,000,000 people live 

6 in coastal floodplains around the world and 

7 2,000,000 square kilometers of land and an esti8 mated $1,000,000,000,000 worth of assets are less 

9 than a 1-meter elevation above sea level. 

10 (5) An estimated 1,700,000,000 people in the 

11 world live in areas where water is scarce and in 25 

12 years that population is projected to increase to 

13 5,400,000,000. Climate change will impact the 

14 hydrological cycle and change the location, time of 

15 year, and intensity of water availability. 

16 (6) The report of the World Health Organiza17 tion entitled ‘‘The World Health Report 2002: Re18 ducing Risks and Promoting Healthy Life’’ states 

19 that ‘‘Effects of climate change on human health 

20 can be expected to be mediated through complex 

21 interactions of physical, ecological, and social fac22 tors. These effects will undoubtedly have a greater 

23 impact on societies or individuals with scarce re24 sources, where technologies are lacking, and where 


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1 infrastructure and institutions (such as the health 

2 sector) are least able to adapt.’’. 

3 (7) Environmental changes relating to global 

4 climate change represent a potentially significant 

5 threat multiplier for instability around the world as 

6 changing precipitation patterns may exacerbate com7 petition and conflict over agricultural, vegetative, 

8 and water resources and displace people, thus in9 creasing hunger and poverty and causing increased 

10 pressure on fragile countries. 

11 (8) The strategic, social, political, and economic 

12 consequences of global climate change are likely to 

13 have a greater adverse effect on less developed coun14 tries with fewer resources and infrastructures that 

15 are less able to adjust to new economic and social 

16 pressures, and where the margin for governance and 

17 survival is thin. 

18 (9) The consequences of global climate change 

19 represent a clear and present danger to the security 

20 and economy of the United States. 

21 (10) A failure to recognize, plan for, and miti22 gate the strategic, social, political, and economic ef23 fects of a changing climate will have an adverse im24 pact on the national security interests of the United 

25 States. 


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1 SEC. 3. NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE ON GLOBAL 

2 CLIMATE CHANGE. 

3 (a) REQUIREMENT FOR NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE

4 ESTIMATE.— 

5 (1) IN GENERAL.—Except as provided in para6 graph (2), not later than 270 days after the date of 

7 enactment of this Act, the Director of National In8 telligence shall submit to Congress a National Intel9 ligence Estimate on the anticipated geopolitical ef10 fects of global climate change and the implications 

11 of such effects on the national security of the United 

12 States. 

13 (2) NOTICE REGARDING SUBMITTAL.—If the 

14 Director of National Intelligence determines that the 

15 National Intelligence Estimate required by para16 graph (1) cannot be submitted by the date set out 

17 in that paragraph, the Director shall notify Congress 

18 and provide— 

19 (A) the reasons that the National Intel20 ligence Estimate cannot be submitted by such 

21 date; and 

22 (B) an estimated date for the submittal of 

23 the National Intelligence Estimate. 

24 (b) CONTENT.—The Director of National Intelligence 

25 shall prepare the National Intelligence Estimate required 

26 by this section using the mid-range projections of the 


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1 fourth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel 

2 on Climate Change— 

3 (1) to assess the political, social, agricultural, 

4 and economic risks during the 30-year period begin5 ning on the date of enactment of this Act posed by 

6 global climate change for countries or regions that 

7 are— 

8 (A) of strategic economic or military im9 portance to the United States and at risk of 

10 significant impact due to global climate change; 

11 or 

12 (B) at significant risk of large-scale hu13 manitarian suffering with cross-border implica14 tions as predicted on the basis of the assess15 ments; 

16 (2) to assess other risks posed by global climate 

17 change, including increased conflict over resources or 

18 between ethnic groups, within countries or 

19 transnationally, increased displacement or forced mi20 grations of vulnerable populations due to inundation 

21 or other causes, increased food insecurity, and in22 creased risks to human health from infectious dis23 ease; 

24 (3) to assess the capabilities of the countries or 

25 regions described in subparagraph (A) or (B) of 


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1 paragraph (1) to respond to adverse impacts caused 

2 by global climate change; 

3 (4) to assess the strategic challenges and oppor4 tunities posed to the United States by the risks de5 scribed in paragraph (1); 

6 (5) to assess the security implications and op7 portunities for the United States economy of engag8 ing, or failing to engage successfully, with other 

9 leading and emerging major contributors of green10 house gas emissions in efforts to reduce emissions; 

11 and 

12 (6) to make recommendations for further as13 sessments of security consequences of global climate 

14 change that would improve national security plan15 ning. 

16 (c) COORDINATION.—In preparing the National In17 telligence Estimate under this section, the Director of Na18 tional Intelligence shall consult with representatives of the 

19 scientific community, including atmospheric and climate 

20 studies, security studies, conflict studies, economic assess21 ments, and environmental security studies, the Secretary 

22 of Defense, the Secretary of State, the Administrator of 

23 the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administra24 tion, the Administrator of the National Aeronautics and 

25 Space Administration, the Administrator of the EnvironVerDate Aug 31 2005 23:18 Apr 09, 2007 Jkt 059200 PO 00000 Frm 00007 Fmt 6652 Sfmt 6201 E:\BILLS\S1018.IS S1018

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1 mental Protection Agency, the Secretary of Energy, and 

2 the Secretary of Agriculture, and, if appropriate, multilat3 eral institutions and allies of the United States that have 

4 conducted significant research on global climate change. 

5 (d) FORM.—The National Intelligence Estimate re6 quired by this section shall be submitted in unclassified 

7 form, to the extent consistent with the protection of intel8 ligence sources and methods, and include unclassified key 

9 judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate. Such 

10 National Intelligence Estimate may include a classified 

11 annex. 

12 SEC. 4. RESPONSE TO THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTI13 MATE. 

14 (a) REPORT BY THE SECRETARY OF DEFENSE.—Not 

15 later than 270 days after the date that the National Intel16 ligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to 

17 Congress, the Secretary of Defense shall submit to the 

18 Committee on Appropriations, the Committee on Armed 

19 Services, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the 

20 Senate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Com21 mittee on Armed Services, and the Permanent Select Com22 mittee on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a 

23 report on— 

24 (1) the projected impact on the military instal25 lations and capabilities of the United States of the 


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1 effects of global climate change as assessed in the 

2 National Intelligence Estimate; 

3 (2) the projected impact on United States mili4 tary operations of the effects of global climate 

5 change described in the National Intelligence Esti6 mate; and 

7 (3) recommended research and analysis needed 

8 to further assess the impacts on the military of glob9 al climate change. 

10 (b) SENSE OF CONGRESS ON THE NEXT QUADREN11 NIAL DEFENSE REVIEW.—It is the sense of Congress that 

12 the Secretary of Defense should address the findings of 

13 the National Intelligence Estimate required by section 3 

14 regarding the impact of global climate change and poten15 tial implications of such impact on the Armed Forces and 

16 for the size, composition, and capabilities of Armed Forces 

17 in the next Quadrennial Defense Review. 

18 (c) REPORT BY THE SECRETARY OF STATE.—Not 

19 later than 270 days after the date that the National Intel20 ligence Estimate required by section 3 is submitted to 

21 Congress, the Secretary of State shall submit to the Com22 mittee on Appropriations, the Committee on Foreign Rela23 tions, and the Select Committee on Intelligence of the Sen24 ate and the Committee on Appropriations, the Committee 

25 on Foreign Affairs, and the Permanent Select Committee 


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1 on Intelligence of the House of Representatives a report 

2 that addresses— 

3 (1) the potential for large migration flows in 

4 countries of strategic interest or humanitarian con5 cern as a response to changes in climate and the im6 plications for United States security interests; and 

7 (2) the potential for diplomatic opportunities 

8 and challenges facing United States policy makers 

9 as a result of social, economic, or political responses 

10 of groups or nations to global changing climate. 

11 SEC. 5. AUTHORIZATION OF RESEARCH. 

12 (a) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary of Defense is au13 thorized to carry out research on the impacts of global 

14 climate change on military operations, doctrine, organiza15 tion, training, material, logistics, personnel, and facilities 

16 and the actions needed to address those impacts. Such re17 search may include— 

18 (1) the use of war gaming and other analytical 

19 exercises; 

20 (2) analysis of the implications for United 

21 States defense capabilities of large-scale Arctic sea22 ice melt and broader changes in Arctic climate; 

23 (3) analysis of the implications for United 

24 States defense capabilities of abrupt climate change; 


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1 (4) analysis of the implications of the findings 

2 derived from the National Intelligence Estimate re3 quired in section 3 of the Act for United States de4 fense capabilities; 

5 (5) analysis of the strategic implications for 

6 United States defense capabilities of direct physical 

7 threats to the United States posed by extreme 

8 weather events such as hurricanes; and 

9 (6) analysis of the existing policies of the De10 partment of Defense to assess the adequacy of the 

11 Department’s protections against climate risks to 

12 United States capabilities and military interests in 

13 foreign countries. 

14 (b) REPORT.—Not later than 2 years after the date 

15 that the National Intelligence Estimate required by sec16 tion 3 is submitted to Congress, the Secretary of Defense 

17 shall submit to Congress a report on the results of the 

18 research, war games, and other activities carried out pur19 suant to subsection (a). 

20 SEC. 6. AUTHORIZATION OF APPROPRIATIONS. 

21 There is authorized to be appropriated such sums as 

22 may be necessary to carry out this Act. 

Æ 


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