NIJ Research for the Real World 

The Changing Threat Landscape of Terrorism 

and Violent Extremism 

January 18, 2022 | 1:00 PM ET 

The webinar will begin shortly 
 

 

 

Important Notification 

The opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations 

expressed here are those of the presenters and do not 

necessarily reflect the positions or policies of the National 

Institute of Justice of the U.S. Department of Justice. 
 

Research For the Real World Moderator: 

The Changing Threat Landscape of Terrorism Matthew Levitt, 

Ph.D. and Violent Extremism 

Presenters 

William Braniff Pete Simi, Ph.D. Hazel Atuel, Ph.D. Carl Castro, Ph.D. Haroro Ingram, Ph.D. 
The Changing Threat Landscape of 

Terrorism and Violent Extremism 

Bill Braniff 

Director, START 

Professor of the Practice, UMD 

January 2022 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

NIJ FUNDED START PROJECTS 

• Risk and Rehabilitation: Supporting the Work of Probation Officers in the Community Reentry of Extremist Offenders. Michael 

Jensen, Gary LaFree, and Elizabeth Yates. 2020-2022. 

– Datasets: PIRUS-D3 

• The Mobilization Puzzle: How Individual, Group, and Situational Dynamics Produce Extremist Outcomes. Gary LaFree and 

Michael Jensen. 2020-2022 

– Datasets: PIRUS, PIRUS-Plots 

• A Multi-Level Approach to the Study of Violent Extremism,” Gary LaFree and Michael Jensen. 2019-2022 

– Datasets: PIRUS, SoNAR (Social Networks of American Radicals) 

• A Pathway Approach to the Study of Hate Crime Offenders,” Michael Jensen and Gary LaFree. 2019-2021 

– Datasets: BIAS 

• Social Learning and Social Control in the Off and Online Pathways to Hate and Extremist Violence”, Gary LaFree, Joshua 

Freilich, Steven Chermak, Thomas Holt, and Brandon Behlendorf. 2016-2019. 

– Datasets: PIRUS 

• A Comparative Study of Violent Extremism and Gangs,” Gary LaFree, Scott Decker, and David Pyrooz. 2014-2018. 

– Datasets: PIRUS 

• Empirical Assessment of Domestic Disengagement and Deradicalization”, Michael Jensen and Peter Simi. 2014-2019. 

– Datasets: PIRUS, PIRUS-D3 

• Empirical Assessment of Domestic Radicalization,” Michael Jensen and Gary LaFree. 2013-2016. 

– Datasets: PIRUS 
- -

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

Salient Sub-Ideologies/Groups Motivating U.S. Terrorism 

2000-2019 

Umbrella Category 2000 2009 2010 2019 

Violent Far-Right 9 21 

Violent Single Issue 

Violent Religious 

Violent Far-Left 

7 

7 

6 

15 

11 

10 

Total 29 57 

Source: Global Terrorism Database • Increasingly Diverse 

• Increasingly Misogynist 

• Increasingly Xenophobic 

• Increasingly Revolutionary (vs Reactionary) 

• Increasingly Conspiratorial 

• Increasingly Partisan 
40 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

Perpetrators by Ideology, U.S. 2000-2018 

0 

5 

10 

15 

20 

25 

30 

35 

Total Attacks 

Environmen 

tal 

Far Left 

Far Right 

Religious 

Nationalist/ 

Separatist 

Single Issue 

Year 

Source: Global Terrorism Database 
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

% of Hate Crime Perpetrators by Motivation, 2000-2018 

Source: BIAS (Bias Incidents and Actors Study) dataset 
 

Weapons used in terrorist attacks in the U.S by decade, 

1970 - 2019 

12% 

16% 

17% 

11% 

31% 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

70% 

80% 

90% 

100% 

Percent of all Weapons Used 

Explosives 

Firearms 

Incendiary 

Melee 

Other* 

1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2010s 

Decade *Includes Biological, Chemical, Radiological, Fake 

Source: Global Terrorism Database Weapons, Sabotage Equipment, and Vehicles as Contact 
Use of Firearms in Terrorist Attacks in the U.S., 

Worldwide, and Western Europe, 2010 -- 2019 

100% 

90% 

80% 

70% 

60% 

50% 

40% 

30% 

20% 

10% 

0% 

30% 

88% 

34% 

45% 

10% 

68% 

90% 

70% 66% 

55% 

32% 

12% 

Attacks Deaths 

United States 

Attacks Deaths 

Firearms Worldwide No Firearms 

Attacks Deaths 

Western Europe 

Source: Global Terrorism Database 
National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

A Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

Extent of Violent Plots in the US by Ideology, 2000-2018 

80% 

68.9% 70% 

6.3% 4.2% 

21.5% 

33.5% 

26.8% 

55.0% 

60.1% 

23.5% 

0% 

10% 

20% 

30% 

40% 

50% 

60% 

 

Far Right Far Left Islamist 

Nebulous Plot Failed/Foiled Plot Succesful Plot 

Source: PIRUS dataset 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

COVID-19 EXACERBATES INDIVIDUAL-LEVEL RISK 

FACTORS OF MOBILIZATION 

• H1: Individuals with job security concerns are at a higher risk 

• H2: Individuals with substance abuse concerns are at a higher risk 

• H3: Individuals with mental health concerns are at higher risk 

• H4: Individuals with a history of trauma are at higher risk 

• H5: Individuals whose educational attainment is negatively affected are 

at higher risk 

• H6: The durations of radicalization processes are shortening during the 

COVID-19 pandemic 
 

 

 

 

– 

Emergent 

Online 

Discourse 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

A TRAGEDY IN FIVE ACTS: 

COVID-19 AND COMPOUNDING CRISES 

Act 1: Anti-Lockdown Protests Energize: 

– Anti-govt, Xenophobic and Conspiracy Theory extremists

Act 2: George Floyd Protests Energize & Create Opportunity for: 

– Add Anti-law enforcement, Anarchist and Racist extremists

Act 3: The U.S. General Election and 6 January Insurrection 

Add Partisan extremists 

Act 4: US Withdrawal from Afghanistan 

– Exacerbates Anti-govt and Xenophobic extremists

– Add specter of increased threat from Muslim extremists

Act 5: eg., DoD Vaccine Mandate 

– Exacerbates Anti-govt, Xenophobic, Conspiracy Theory extremists

Hostile 

Foreign 

Influence 

Operations 
 

 

 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

“International 

” Terrorism 

OVERLAPPING, NOT SEPARATE THREATS 

Great 

Power 

Competition 

P 

r 

o 

x 

i 

e 

s 

Influence 

Ops 

Hate Crime 

and 

“Domestic” 

Terrorism 

International 

-

ization 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

KEY TAKE-AWAYS 

• It will be a long time before we understand the impact of Covid-19 on violent 

extremism 

– Individual-level risk factors have been exacerbated 

– Conflict zones and resource constrained countries have been and will be most greatly 

affected, and the US is shifting attention away from CT 

– Covid-19 exacerbates inequalities regionally between Globalization's “haves” and “have-nots” 

• The duration of the pandemic will give time for compounding crises – government 

must plan for resilience 

• Influence operations, conspiracy theories and political polarization are mainstreaming

extremist ideologies on the backs of tremendous uncertainty 

• Risk assessments should not artificially separate international terrorism, domestic

terrorism and hate crime, as these are increasingly overlapping phenomena 

– See DoD’s CEAWG report 

– See NCTC-FBI-DHS overview of Domestic Violent Extremism 
 

National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism 

An Emeritus Center of Excellence of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security 

THANK YOU 

Bill Braniff 

Braniff@umd.edu 

(301) 405-4022 
Cycles of Extreme Right Terror 

Pete Simi, PhD 

Associate Professor 

Chapman University 

simi@chapman.edu 
Professional 

Background 
 

January 6th, 2021: 

How did we get here & 

Where are we going? 
 

 

Language 

Fails Us 

• Conceptualizing the “What”: 

• broad movement without a single central 

unified leadership animated by the sense that 

revolution is necessary in order to achieve a 

“national rebirth” 
Four Decades of Terror (1980-2020) 

Continuity Emergent 

• Role of specific catalyst events • Growing polarization and 

declining institutional legitimacy 

• Armed encampments, small 

splinter cells, & lone actors • Viral spread of ideas & emotions 

• Everyday insurgency 
1980’s Wave of Terror 
1990’s Wave of Terror 
2012 2014 201 2018 2019 2019 2021 

5 

Key Lone Actor Attacks* 

*not an exhaustive list of incidents 
Four Decades of Terror (1980-2020) 

Continuity Emergent 

• Role of specific catalyst events • Growing polarization and 

declining institutional legitimacy 

• Armed encampments, small 

splinter cells, & lone actors • Viral spread of ideas & emotions 

• Everyday insurgency 
Emotional-Cognitive Network: A New Approach 
The Need for 

a MultiDimensional 

Approach 

Societal 

Community 

Individual 
Lessons learned from natural 

histories of ‘formers’ 

Individual 

Level: 

Disengagement Promoting disengagement 

Interventions has ripple effects in terms of 

hate crime and terrorism 

prevention 
THANK YOU 
 

 

Mosul & the Islamic State The ISIS Reader The Long Jihad 

Podcast available on iTunes, Spotify, Acast, Amazon... Hurst / Oxford University Press The Islamic State’s Method of Insurgency 
Primary Exports 

• Brand association & amplification 

• Strategy via manhaj (insurgency 

method) 

• Ideology/Jurisprudential 

Framework via aqeeda 

The Strategic Logic of State & Non-State Persuade or Perish 

Malign Influence Activities 

The RUSI Journal Program on Extremism 
The Strategic Logic of State & Non -State Anti-Democratic 

Malign Influence 
- - -

 

 

 

 

 

Exploring the Social Networks of 

Homegrown Violent Extremist Military Veterans 

Hazel R. Atuel, PhD and Carl A. Castro, PhD, Colonel, U.S. Army, Retired 

National Institute of Justice Webinar 

The Changing Threat Landscape of Terrorism and Violent Extremism: 

Implications for Research and Policy 

January 18, 2022 

Funding Acknowledgement: This research is supported by Grant 2019 ZA CX 0002 from the National Institute of 

Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The findings, conclusions, and recommendations 

expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Department of Justice. 
2016 Working Hypothesis 

Premilitary/Civilian 

(Planting/Forming) 

• Predispositions 

Individual 

Network 

(Influence) 

Stressors 

Military (Sharpening) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Life 

Identity 

Networks 

(Influence) 

Stressors 

Combat Training 

Discharge Type 

Postmilitary/Veteran 

(Triggering) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Experience 

• Veteran Life 

Identity 

Networks 

(Influence) 

Stressors 

(consider PTSD 

or Moral Injury) 
Early Work on Mass Shootings and Violence 

Lee Harvey Oswald Charles Whitman 
 

Early Work on Mass Shootings and Violence1 

Military Status (N=104) Motives (N=104) 

Training

Dropout

7% 

Active 

Duty

14% 

Veteran 

79% 

Power 

9% 

Revenge

19% 

Loyalty

7% Terroris 

m 

47% 

Mental 

Health 

15% 

Profit 

3% 

1Atuel & Castro, 2019 
 

 

Some Historical Markers 

• Civil War: Ku Klux Klan 

• World War I: Friends of the New Germany 

• World War II: American Nazi Party 

• Vietnam War: Modern White Power Movement 

• Gulf War: 1995 Oklahoma City Bombing 

• OEF/OIF Conflicts 

- 2009 Fort Hood Shooting 

- 2017 Unite the Right Rally 
 

 

 

 

Some Research Highlights on World War I Veterans1 

• “There is a core of anger in the soul of almost every veteran, and we are justified in calling it bitterness,....It 

leads one man to outbursts of temper, another to social radicalism, a third to excesses of conservatism” (p.109). 

Premilitary/Civilian

(Planting/Forming) 

• Temperament 

Military

(Sharpening) 

• Military Experience 

Postmilitary/Veteran

(Triggering) 

• Transition 

Experience 

• “...the veteran is the ready tool of the demagogue ....Rohm, Goring, Hitler, Mussolini.... [and] of the 

"undercover" demagogue as well....the Ku Klux Klan”(p.188). 

1Waller, 1944 
 

 

 

 

Postmilitary/Veter

an (Triggering) 

•Transition Experience 

• Reinforced 

stereotypic 

thinking with 

conspiracy

theories 

• Held antigovernment

beliefs 

Some Research Highlights on World War II Veterans1 

• “...in Germany after the first World War...the chief promoters and followers of the anti-Semitic movement 

were former soldiers, unable to successfully reintegrate themselves successfully in society” (p.4.) 

Premilitary/Civilia 

n 

(Planting/Forming

) 

•Temperament 

• Stereotypical

beliefs of Jews 

and Blacks 

• History of poor

adjustment in 

Military

(Sharpening) 

•Military Experience 

• More likely to 

report getting a 

‘bad break’ in their 

Army career 

• More likely to be 

embittered about 

Army life 

society 1Bettelheim & Janowitz, 1950 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Some Research Highlights on Vietnam War Veterans1 

• “...the war experience serves as a powerful stimulus or catalyst which develops and exaggerates 

previously learned attitudes and strategies for coping with stress” (p.22). 

Military

(Sharpening) 

•Military Experience 

•More likely to report

getting a ‘bad break’ in 

their Army career 

•More likely to be 

embittered about Army life 

• “Found 

themselves 

betrayed by their

national leaders 

and appalled at

their own 

complicity as 

executioners” 

1Retzer, 1976 

Premilitary/Civilian

(Planting/Forming) 

•Temperament 

•Stereotypical beliefs of 

Jews and Blacks 

•History of poor adjustment

in society 

• Growing sense 

of community

alienation 

• Coping strategy 

was to challenge 

community

practices based 

on alternative 

principles 

(p.355). 

Postmilitary/Veter

an (Triggering) 

•Transition Experience 

•Reinforced stereotypic

thinking with conspiracy 

theories 

•Held anti-government

beliefs 
 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Military Radicalization Project: 

Theory and Evidence-Informed 

Theories 

• Quest for Significance Theory (Kruglanski and colleagues, 2009, 2013, 2014)

• - Needs, Narratives, and Networks 

• Military Transition Theory (Castro & Kintzle, 2018)

• - Premilitary/Civilian to Military to Postmilitary/Veteran 

• - Transition challenges (e.g., housing, employment, finances, healthcare) 

• Veteran Identity Theory (Atuel & Castro, 2016, 2018)

• - Past military identity operating in present civilian space and time 

Summary of Risk Factors based on NIJ-Funded Research (Smith, 2018) 

• Past history of violence, criminal activity, delinquency 

• Extremist ideology/grievances and extremist associates 

• Skills, resources, and/or intent to commit violence 

• Mental health issues 

• Problems in relationships, professional, educational, and/or economic domains 
 

Identify Uniqueness and Commonalities 

HVE 

Civilian 

HVE 

Veteran 

Non-HVE 

Veteran 

Risk Factors 

Quest for Significance 

Risk Factors 

Quest for Significance 

Military Experience 

Transition Experience 
Study 1: Secondary Analyses of American 

Terrorism Study (1980-2002) (Smith & Damphousse, 2007) 

HVE 

Civilian 

HVE 

Veteran 

Risk Factors 
-

-

-

- -

-

-

-

-

- - -

-

-

 

 

Study 1: Variables 

Sample (Indictees Data = 574) 

52 with a military background (military group) 

42 with no military background (civilian group) 

474 with unknown military background (mixed group) 

Demographic Characteristics 

Race (e.g., white, African American) 

Sex (e.g., male, female) 

Age (at indictment) 

Marital status (e.g., married, single) 

Educational level (e.g., less than 8th grade, GED) 

HVE Characteristics 

Type of terrorist group (e.g., left wing, right wing) 

Role in group (e.g., leader, cadre) 

Primary target (e.g., government, civilian) 
 

Study 1 Results: Demographic 

Characteristics 

Age Differences 

-Military group was older (M = 46 yrs) than Civilian group (M = 31 yrs) 

Sex Differences 

- 100% of Military group was male compared to 87% of the Civilian group 

Marital Status Differences 

- 48% of Military group were married or cohabitating compared to 29% of Civilian group 

- 13% of Military group were single compared to 52% of Civilian group 

- No significant differences found in race (p=.29) and education (p=.187). 
 

 

 

Study 1 Results: HVE Characteristics 

Type of Terrorist Group 

- 60% of Military group belonged to RW groups compared to 13% of Civilian 

Group 

- 73% of Civilian group belonged to International/Other groups compared to 

35% of Military group 

Role in Terrorist Group

•- 48% of Military group were leaders compared to 25% of the Civilian group 

Primary Target 

- 36% of Military and 31% of Civilian groups targeted government buildings/officials 

- Another 25% of Military group targeted social (minority) groups 

• 44% other/unspecified 
 

Study 1: Overall Findings 

Compared to civilians, people with a military background are more likely to be 

• - Older 

• - Male 

• - In a domestic partnership 

• - Belong to RW groups 

• - Hold a leadership position in a group 

• - Target government officials/buildings as well as 

social (minority) groups 
Study 2: Exploring the Social Networks of 

HVE Military Veterans (2003-2019) 

HVE 

Civilian 

HVE 

Veteran 

Non-HVE 

Veteran 

Risk Factors 

Quest for 

Significance 

Risk Factors 

Quest for Significance 

Military Experience 

Transition Experience 
Study 2: Sample and Methods 

HVE Civilian (n=30) HVE Military Veteran 

(n=30) 

HVE 

Civilian 

Family 

(n=30) 

Civilian 

(n=30) 

Primary Data: Participant 

Interviews 

Secondary Data: Open-sources 

(Court Documents, Manifestos, 

etc.) 

HVE 

Military

Veteran 

Family

(n=30) 

Civilian 

(n=30) 

Military

(n=30) 

Veteran 

(n=30) 
Study 2: Percentage of Ideology for HVE 

Sample1 

44 White Supremacy/Neo-Nazi 15 63 

11 Anti-Government 69 7 

17 Radical Islam 15 20 

22 Black Nationalism 

Anti-Abortion 

7 

6 Hybrid 3 

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 

Veteran Active Duty Civilian 1Castro & Atuel, 2021 
2

Study 2: Select Measures (Semi-Structured Interview) 

Premilitary/Civilian Life

• - Family relationships; childhood and school years 

• - Aspirations and Motivations 

• - Relationships (Friendships, dating, marriage (if applicable)) 

Military Life

• - Achievements and perceived challenges; Aspirations and motivations 

• - Relationships (Friendships, dating, marriage (if applicable)) 

Veteran Life

• - Achievements and perceived challenges; Aspirations and motivations 

• - Relationships (Friendships, dating, marriage (if applicable)) 

Radicalization

• - Grievances 

• - Ideologies 
Study 2 Preliminary Findings: Case Study of 

a Military Veteran 

Premilitary/Civilian 

(Planting/Forming) 

• Held anti-Semitic 

beliefs 

Military (Sharpening) Postmilitary/Veteran 

(Triggering) 
Study 2 Preliminary Findings: Case Study of 

a Military Veteran 

Premilitary/Civilian 

(Planting/Forming) 

• Held anti-Semitic 

beliefs 

Military (Sharpening) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Life 

WWII combat 

Network 

Postmilitary/Veteran 

(Triggering) 
Study 2 Preliminary Findings: Case Study of 

a Military Veteran 

Premilitary/Civilian 

(Planting/Forming) 

• Predispositions 

Held anti-Semitic 

beliefs 

Military (Sharpening) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Life 

WWII combat 

Network 

Postmilitary/Veteran 

(Triggering) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Experience 

• Veteran Life 

Identity 

Networks 

(Veteran and 

Civilian) 

Stressors 
 

 

 

Study 2 Preliminary Findings: Case study of 

a Military Veteran 

“HOLOCAUST MEMORIALS erected by ILLUMINATI all over the World 

intended to cast a permanent Stigma on the Aryan Race stand instead as 

MONUMENTS TO MANKIND'S CONGENITAL LIARS: THE JEWISH 

RACE.” 

“HITLER was correct in his assessment of the ultimate importance of 

Genetics. Through applied eugenics (improvement of the Aryan gene-pool) 

he intended to create eugenically an Aryan Super Race.” 
 

 

 

 

Future Research: A View from the Past1 

“If we had spent a million dollars on research in the years following World War 

I, or even, perhaps a hundred thousand, it would be worth billions today in 

money, and its value in human lives would be incalculable.” 

“It would be possible to solve the veteran problem, but before it is solved, many 

men must study it over a period of years, and others must evaluate their 

results....We must build up a body of social knowledge.... which draws upon

all fields of knowledge for help in solving its peculiar problems.” 

1Waller, 1944, p.308 
Future Research: A View from the Present 

Premilitary/Civilian 

(Planting/Forming) 

• Predispositions 

Individual 

Network 

Military (Sharpening) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Life 

Network 

Stressors 

Combat 

Quest for 

Significance 

Postmilitary/Veteran 

(Triggering) 

• Civilian 

Predispositions 

• Military Experience 

• Veteran Life 

Identity 

Network 

Stressors 

Quest for 

Significance 
 

Potential Threats 

• Withdrawal from Afghanistan 

• Implementation of 2021 DoD Extremism Regulations 

• Discharges (Potential and Actual) 

- Non-compliance with COVID-19 vaccination regulations 

- Violation of 2021 DoD Extremism Regulations 
Contact Information 

Dr. Carl A. Castro, cacastro@usc.edu 

Dr. Hazel R. Atuel, atuel@usc.edu 
 

Questions? 

Please enter your questions into the Q&A box 

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