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 Lecture on Confidence Intervals

January 9, 2019
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0:00 one of the things that comes up is

0:02 confidence intervals and you're gonna

0:04 see that NRC two recommends that you use

0:07 some form of a confidence interval so

0:09 what is a confidence interval if you

0:11 want a 95% confidence interval you in

0:19 terms of a probability distribution

0:24 coming you're assuming a normal

0:26 distribution now right you mean and here

0:31 you're gonna have your two tails

0:37 confidence interval if it's 95%

0:39 depending on the distribution this is

0:41 normal

0:42 95% of the time the data is gonna fall

0:44 between whatever number this is and

0:48 whatever number this is that's going to

0:51 come off of what you mean is whoops and

0:53 what your standard deviation is in this

0:59 case variance

1:01 confidence interval allows you a measure

1:04 of uncertainty okay what you could do is

1:07 you can define how much probability

1:09 you're willing to take in those two

1:11 tails of that distribution at the end if

1:14 you want 95% confidence that means 0.025

1:18 or 2.5 percents going to be in each of

1:21 those tails and as you gain more

1:24 confidence like 99.9 less and less are

1:27 going to be in those two tails right
    
  
Disclaimer:
              Opinions or points of view expressed in these recordings represent those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Any commercial products and manufacturers discussed in these recordings are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute product approval or endorsement by the U.S. Department of Justice.
  
Date Published: January 9, 2019
    
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