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 Lecture on Statistical Probabilities

January 9, 2019
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0:00 all these numbers are in a mixture

0:02 calculation a paternity a random match

0:05 probability a conditional probability

0:06 all they are is estimates they're just

0:10 like the odds on the fleet Alex or on

0:13 closing argument they're an estimate the

0:17 reality is is never attainable in a

0:19 horse race it is because you run the

0:20 race but in this case you'll never know

0:24 what the denominator of your estimate is

0:26 because you're not genotyping everybody

0:28 on the planet nor can you because

0:30 everybody on the planet is an entity

0:33 that's changing as we sit here people

0:36 are dying and people are being born its

0:40 continuum right in a population level

0:43 every breath you take someone is

0:46 stopping their breathing or starting it

0:48 if you think about that it's quite

0:50 amazing really it's a continuum of human

0:54 beings coming living going coming living

0:58 going never stops so we're not at any

1:01 point in time a static entity as a

1:04 population right so you never know what

1:08 the denominator is you'd never be able

1:10 to genotype everybody to get the

1:12 denominator because the everybody

1:14 changes by the minute so okay you're

1:20 just providing an estimate to what is a

1:22 reasonable idea of how common your gonna

1:28 see these genotypes come together as a

1:30 unit or a profile okay you're not

1:34 carving in stone how many people you'd

1:36 have to test to be sure you'd see it

1:39 there's a way to calculate that and I'll

1:41 get into it but statistics are giving

1:44 you a tool to provide that
    
  
Disclaimer:
              Opinions or points of view expressed in these recordings represent those of the speakers and do not necessarily represent the official position or policies of the U.S. Department of Justice. Any commercial products and manufacturers discussed in these recordings are presented for informational purposes only and do not constitute product approval or endorsement by the U.S. Department of Justice.
  
Date Published: January 9, 2019
    
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