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FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
 Naïve vs. Winning Models

Description
              *From "Results from the National Institute of Justice Recidivism Forecasting Challenge."*

Exhibit 1: Naïve vs. Winning Models. Top winning scores are presented to display the range of scores across years and specifically how top winner’s scores compare to simple demographic and chance models. Both naïve and winning models performed substantially better (error is lower) than the random chance model (dotted line).

Data

Female
	Year 1
			Year 2
			Year 3Random Chance
			0.25000
			0.25000
			0.25000Best Naïve
			0.19015
			0.14506
			0.12811Best Winning
			0.17190
			0.11960
			0.11390Male
	Year 1
			Year 2
			Year 3Random Chance
			0.25000
			0.25000
			0.25000Best Naïve
			0.21001
			0.18647
			0.16163Best Winning
			0.19000
			0.15420
			0.14630
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