A Comparative Analysis of Crime Guns:

Implications for Reducing Gun Violence

MEGAN E. COLLINS, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

SUSAN T. PARKER, UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

THOMAS L. SCOTT, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

CHARLES F. WELLFORD, UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

The work of Collins, Scott and Wellford on this paper was supported by a subcontract from the International 

Association of Chiefs of Police (IACP) as part of an award from the National Institute of Justice. Parker’s work was 

supported by awards from the Joyce Foundation and the National Institute of Justice to the University of 

Chicago’s Crime Lab. The Joyce Foundation, the IACP, and NIJ are not responsible for the content of this paper.
PARTNERS

IACP

New Orleans and Prince Georges Police Depts.

State Police agencies in 14 states

UNIVERSITY OF MARYLAND

CRIME LAB AT UNIVERSITY OF CHICAGO

NATIONAL INSTITUTE OF JUSTICE
Overview of Gun Market 

Research

◦ Knowledge is more conceptual than empirical

◦ Majority of trace studies limited to individual municipalities, 

often in high-regulation states

◦ Inmate studies typically conducted independent of trace 

studies 

◦ Gap between first legal sale and use in crime not well 

understood.

◦ Our study seeks to address these gaps by joining trace and 

inmate studies in 3 distinct jurisdictions, and tracking weapons 

from first legal sale.
How do guns that are used in violent 

crimes move from first legal sale to 

use in a crime?

Trace

Tracking

Prince George’s 

County, MD (A-)

New Orleans (F)

Chicago (B+)

Prison 

Interviews
How do guns that are used in violent 

crimes move from first legal sale to 

use in a crime?

Trace

Prison 

Interviews

Tracking

Prince George’s Cty.: 2,034 guns (2012-13)

New Orleans: 3,068 guns (2011-12)

Chicago: 18,455 guns (2011-13)

Prince George’s Cty.: 68 inmates

New Orleans: 220 inmates 181 original purchasers
Conclusions

1. Gun recoveries and trace successes vary across jurisdictions, and in 

some locations, by crime

2. Gun regulations were associated with the proportion of guns 

purchased in-state and time to recovery, but not with the likelihood of 

the purchaser and possessor being the same person, or with the 

likelihood of the gun being bought by a straw-purchaser. 

3. First legal owners report that guns that end up being used in violent 

crimes are stolen, sold to offender, or sold to someone else.

4. Imprisoned gun offenders cited stealing or buying a gun “off the street” 

as the most likely way to obtain a firearm to use in a crime 
1. Gun recoveries and trace successes 

vary across jurisdictions, and in some 

locations, by crime
Gun Recoveries 

◦ Across the jurisdictions, less than 20% of violent gun 

crimes resulted in recovery of firearm 

◦ Firearms more likely to be recovered after homicides; 

unlikely following armed robberies 

◦ In New Orleans, recovered gun crimes compared to nonrecovered gun crimes more likely to involve: 

◦ Older, white, and female offenders

◦ Black victims

◦ Single as compared to multiple offenders

◦ Result in death and less likely to result in no injury of victim
Unsuccessful Traces

◦ Of those firearms recovered and submitted for tracing, 

approximately two-thirds are successfully traced 

◦ The successful trace rate was about 10% greater in New 

Orleans (77%) compared to Prince George’s County (66%) 

and Chicago (65%)

◦ The most common reasons for unsuccessful traces differ 

slightly across jurisdictions
Reasons for trace failure 

◦ New Orleans

◦ Retail or manufacturer dealer out of business/died (26.4%)

◦ Serial number missing, invalid, or obliterated (19.5%)

◦ Gun sold before recordkeeping requirements (14.3%)

◦ FFL paperwork unavailable (13.9%)

◦ Prince George’s County 

◦ Gun sold before recordkeeping requirements (26.5%)

◦ Retail or manufacturer dealer out of business/died (24.1%)

◦ Serial number missing, invalid, or obliterated (15.7%)

◦ Information missing from trace request (10.5%)

◦ Chicago 

◦ Traced to a business or individual with no record of having a FFL (30.5%)

◦ FFL paperwork unavailable (19.8%)

◦ Serial number missing, invalid, or obliterated (12.1%)

◦ Gun sold before recordkeeping requirements (10.5%) 
2. Gun regulations were associated with 

the proportion of guns purchased instate and time to recovery, but not with 

the likelihood of the purchaser and 

possessor being the same person, or with 

the likelihood of the gun being bought by 

a straw-purchaser
0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

Proportion In-State 

PGC

New Orleans

Chicago

Proportion of In-State Recoveries
Mean Time to Recovery

8.5

13.8

12.2

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16

New Orleans (F)

Chicago (B+)

Prince George's Cty. (A-)

Years
% Purchaser = Possessor

19

15

26

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

New Orleans (F)

Chicago (B+)

Prince George's Cty. (A-)

Purchaser = Possessor Purchaser ≠ Possessor
Movement from first legal sale 

Table 2. How was gun separated from 1st owner?

Method Number %

Stolen 75 41

Sold/traded to gun store 16 9

Sold/traded at gun show 4 2

Sold to person other than offender 20 11

Sold/transferred to offender 20 11

Transerred to known person 10 6

Transferred to unknown person 2 1

Other 34 19

Total 181

1st owner same person as offender 21

1st owner same person as victim 5
3. Imprisoned gun offenders cited 

stealing or buying a gun “off the street” 

as the most likely way to obtain a firearm 

to use in a crime 
0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Steal Buy Other

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Steal Buy Other

New Orleans Prince George’s County

Assuming someone wanted to get a weapon to commit a crime: 

How would they get this weapon? 

Where do you think they would get the gun?
Implications for law 

enforcement

◦ Need enforceable tools to address transfers from legal owner to 

unregulated markets

◦ Improvements in trace data

◦ Article in May issue of Police Chief ( with Collins and Acosta)

◦ Use multiple sources of evidence to understand gun markets – tracing, tracking, and surveys

◦ Use programs of proven effectiveness that address specifics of 

market

◦ Use strategies that have reduced crime to disrupt gun markets