U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 Temporal Sequencing, Incident Sophistication, and Terrorist Outcomes
NCJ Number
              304689

Author(s)
          Brent L. Smith;
                        Jeff Gruenewald;
                        Brent R. Klein;
                        Katie Ratcliff;
                        Summer Jackson;
                        Ian Brecht
Date Published

2016
Length
              6 pages
Annotation
              Since there have been only a few efforts to examine how the planning process affects the outcome of a terrorist plot, this research brief reports some preliminary findings from an analysis of the impact of the length of the planning process, the impact of multiple participants, and the volume of precursor activity on the success or failure of terrorist plots in the United States.
Abstract
              Data from the American Terrorism Study were used in this analysis. A total of 504 terrorism plots in the United States from 1980-2015 were analyzed to determine 1) whether the plot was successful, partially successful, or unsuccessful; 2) the total number of participants involved in the plot; 3) the number of known activities related to the planning or preparation of the planned terrorist event; and 4) the number of days from the first identified “preparatory” activity to the date of the planned terrorist incidents. The data pertained to 132 far-right terrorism plots, 84 far-left plots, 75 Islamist extremist plots, and 126 environmental extremist plots. The study found that terrorists who engaged in a significantly shorter planning and preparation cycle had the greatest probability of success. The greater the number of preparatory acts required for commission of a terrorist incident, the greater the probability of failure. Contrary to most expectations, the fewer the number of persons involved in the preparation process, the lower the rate of success. Multiple participants enabled the preparatory acts to be committed by several persons, which decreased the possibility that the precursor conduct would receive attention from law enforcement. 3 tables and 1 figure
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        2013-ZA-BX-0001


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)


  
  
        
  Award
        SEQUENCING TERRORISTS? PRECURSOR BEHAVIORS:A CRIME SPECIFIC ANALYSIS
    
  
  
Date Published: January 1, 2016
    
          Downloads
        
                      HTML

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Terrorism
        Domestic radicalization
        Domestic terrorism
        Social and Behavioral Science
        Crime analysis



  
Similar Publications
        
                      The Problem with Criminal Records: Discrepancies between State Reports and Private-sector Background Checks
                  Atlanta Youth Count 2018 Community Report: The Prevalence of Sex and Labor Trafficking Among Homeless Youth in Metro Atlanta
                  A Fully Continuous System of DNA Profile Evidence Evaluation That Can Utilize STR Profile Data Produced Under Different Conditions Within a Single Analysis
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov