U.S. flag
      An official website of the United States government, Department of Justice.
        Here's how you know
      Here's how you know**Official websites use .gov**
            
            A **.gov** website belongs to an official government organization in the United States.
      **Secure .gov websites use HTTPS**
            
            A **lock** (
            A locked padlock
            ) or **https://** means you’ve safely connected to the .gov website. Share sensitive information only on official, secure websites. Menu

      
        close

            
            
                                              About NIJ
        
                    
  
          About NIJ
      
    
          The NIJ Director
          How NIJ Is Organized
          Mission and Guiding Principles
          Research and Development Process
          Strategic Framework
          Assessments of NIJ
          Annual Reports & Reports to Congress
          Staff Directory
          Funding & Awards
        
                    
  
          Funding & Awards
      
    
          Current Funding
          Forthcoming Funding
          Expired Funding
          Awards: Listing of Funded Projects
          Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
          Fellowship & Student Programs
          Travel Scholarships
          NIJ Challenge Program
          Library & Multimedia
        
                    
  
          Library & Multimedia
      
    
          NIJ Journal
          Podcasts
          Publications Listing
          Multimedia Listing
          Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
          Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
          Software & Databases
          Datasets
          Patents
          Topics
        
                    
  
          Topics
      
    
          Article Listing
          Corrections
          Courts
          Crime Prevention
          Crimes
          Drugs and Crime
          Equipment and Technology
          Forensic Sciences
          Youth Justice
          Justice System Reform
          Law Enforcement
          Tribal Crime and Justice
          Victims of Crime
          Events
        
                    
  
          Events
      
    
          NIJ 2024 Research Conference
          Scheduled Events
          On-Demand Events
          Research Meetings & Workshops
          NIJ-Hosted Online Training

                            
                                About
          Contact Us
          Subscribe
          Topics A-Z
                  Share
FacebookXLinkedInRedditPinterestEmail Home
                            Library & Multimedia
 Risk and Protective Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism
NCJ Number
              307118

Author(s)
          Kevin T. Wolff;
                        Michael T. Baglivio
Date Published

2022
Length
              86 pages
Annotation
              This research report fills information gaps on the different trajectories in risk and protective factors among youth, during their time on community-based supervision, while simultaneously considering the community context of the area in which those youth reside; it discusses dynamic risk, limitations on prior work assessing dynamic changes, contextual effects and juvenile offending/recidivism, and the current research study’s methodology, measures and indicators, the researchers’ analytic approach, results, and two appendices.
Abstract
              This document describes a research study that had four specific aims: to empirically identify the distinct trajectories in dynamic risk and protective factors among youth under community-based juvenile justice dispositions; to assess the relationship between community contextual measures/individual factors and trajectory group membership; to assess whether different patterns in risk/need over time in the trajectory group is associated with new offending during and post-completion of community-based placements; and to examine trajectories in risk across multiple domains, i.e., dual trajectories, in order to assess whether changes in one risk factor are associated with changes in others. After performing a review of existing literature, the authors state that the majority of prior work either examined changes in risk among adults with justice system involvement or changes in juvenile risk/needs during long-term juvenile justice placement, and that very little is known about whether or to what extent risk and needs change over time among youth in juvenile justice supervision within the community. The research being reported in this document, examines those trajectories of risk and protective factors throughout probation supervision, whether such trajectories affect the likelihood of recidivism, and how community context influences those relationships. The authors conclude that youth’s dynamic risk relative to their peers remained stable; those starting at lower or higher risk stayed that way throughout. However, the authors state that youth are on distinct trajectories of dynamic risk, and under 15 percent of youth do show change over time in terms of increasing or decreasing in risk during placement; they also state that measuring changes in dynamic risk by considering both risk and protective factors or strengths in tandem remains an important part of assessing treatment progress over time.
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        2020-JX-FX-0004


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)


  
  
        
  Award
        Risk and Protective Trajectories, Community Context, and Juvenile Recidivism
    
  
  
Date Published: January 1, 2022
    
          Downloads
        
                      PDF

Side navigation
  

        

  
  
              NIJ Journal
    
      
            
            
            
      Podcasts
    
      
            
            
            
      Publications Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Multimedia Listing
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Practices on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Rated Programs on CrimeSolutions
    
      
            
            
            
      Software & Databases
    
      
            
            
            
      Datasets
    
      
            
            
            
      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Social and Behavioral Science
        Corrections
        Recidivism
        Juvenile recidivism
        Juvenile justice



  
Similar Publications
        
                      White Paper – Information Sharing Between Medicolegal Death Investigation Offices And Organ And Tissue Recovery Organizations
                  White Paper – Information Sharing Between Medicolegal Death Investigators And Toxicology Testing Services
                  What’s Known and Unknown About Marijuana (Part Two)
 Top

      National Institute of Justice

        
        
                        About NIJ
                    About NIJ
      
    
                  How NIJ Is Organized
      
    
                  NIJ Director
      
    
                  Research Disclaimer
      
    
                  Funding & Awards
                    Funding & Awards Home
      
    
                  Awards Listing
      
    
                  Current Funding
      
    
                  Guidance for Applicants and Awardees
      
    
                  Resources
                    Events
      
    
                  Podcasts
      
    
                  Publications
      
    
                  Topics
      
    
                  Multimedia
      
    
                  Reuse Policy
      
    
                  Contacts
                    Contact NIJ
      
    
                  Staff Directory
      
    
                  Submit a FOIA Request
      
    
                  File a Civil Rights ComplaintFacebook
          
                      X
          
                      YouTube
  

      810 7th St. NW, Washington, D.C. 20531
      
              Secondary Footer link menu
            Accessibility
              Plain Language
              Privacy Policy
              Legal Policies and Disclaimer
              No FEAR Act
              Freedom of Information Act
              USA.gov
              Justice.gov