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                            Library & Multimedia
 Uncertainty and heuristics in offender decision-making: Deviations from rational choice
NCJ Number
              307536
Journal

*Journal of Criminal Justice* Volume: 81 Dated: July–August 2022
Author(s)
          D. Kim Rossmo;
                        Lucia Summers
Date Published

July 2022
Annotation
              This paper explores offender decision-making and concludes that rational choice and expected utility theories do not adequately explain offender decision-making.
Abstract
              This study finds that rational choice and expected utility theories do not adequately explain offender decision-making, particularly when drug addiction is involved. Effective crime prevention and control strategies require a more comprehensive understanding of how offenders evaluate costs and benefits, and make situational offending decisions. Using perspectives from prospect theory and behavioral economics, the authors explore examples of offender decision-making that appear inconsistent with rational choice and expected utility theories. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 200 adult offenders with three or more convictions for predatory property or street crime (theft, burglary, and/or robbery). Subjects were asked to describe situations in which they had encountered crime prevention or control measures, and their relevant responses. Specific questions focused on how offenders assessed the effort, risk, and reward involved. Thematic analysis was employed to identify deviations from rational choice perspectives. Offenders, particularly abusers of drugs and/or alcohol, often held distorted perceptions of effort, risk, and reward. Cognitive biases and heuristics influenced logic and many offenders were guided by their intuition, even to the point of superstition. Some had dual motivations (“needs” and “wants”) that resulted in a nonlinear relationship between value and utility. (Published Abstract Provided)
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        2013-R2-CX-0003


  
  
        
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        Offender Decision-Making: Decision Trees and Displacement
    
  
  
Date Published: July 1, 2022
    
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