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                            Library & Multimedia
 Suspicious Preoperational Activities and Law Enforcement Interdiction of Terrorist Plots
NCJ Number
              304717
Journal

*Policing: An International Journal* Volume: 42 Issue: 1 Dated: February 2019
Date Published

February 2021
Annotation
              The purpose of this paper is to provide a metric for validating the Nationwide Suspicious Activity Reporting (SAR) Initiative’s (NSI) sixteen-category instrument, which is designed to guide law enforcement in the collection and analysis of suspicious behaviors preceding serious crimes, including terrorist attacks.
Abstract
              Data on suspicious preoperational activities and terrorism incident outcomes in the USA between 1972 and 2013 come from the American Terrorism Study (ATS). Using a mixed-method approach, the authors conduct descriptive and multivariate analyses to examine the frequencies of the least and most prevalent suspicious activities (or SAR indicators) and how they predict the likelihood of terrorism prevention. In addition, the authors contextualize how configurations of SAR indicators are associated with the successful thwarting of terrorism incidents by law enforcement using an analytical method known as conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC). The study reveals several key findings. First, certain behaviors categorized as suspicious, such as making threats, occur more frequently than others. Second, making threats, conducting surveillance and terrorist recruitment/financing predict law enforcement interdiction in terrorism plots, while misrepresentation (or the manufacturing and use of false documents) is more associated with terrorist success. Third, prevalent SAR indicators operate differently in the context of various combinations of suspicious activities to shape the likelihood for law enforcement interdiction. The current study’s findings may not be generalizable to other forms of violent extremism and terrorism outside of the USA. This study illuminates opportunities for the NSI to provide law enforcement with the necessary tools to reduce terrorism risk and prevent future attacks. To our knowledge, no scholarly work to date has assessed how observable behavioral indicators of suspicious preoperational activities affect the outcomes of terrorist plots. (Publisher Abstract)
      
  
          Additional Details
Grant Number(s)
        2017-ZA-CX-0004


  
  
        
  Agencies
        NIJ-Sponsored


  
  
        
  Publication Type
        Research (Applied/Empirical)


  
  
        
  Award
        INNOVATIVE METHODOLOGIES FOR ASSESSING RADICALIZATION RISK: RISK TERRAIN MODELING AND CONJUNCTIVE ANALYSIS
    
  
  
Date Published: February 1, 2021
    
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      PatentsRelated Topics
        
                Terrorism
        Domestic radicalization
        Domestic terrorism
        Social and Behavioral Science
        Citizen/business terrorism prevention



  
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